Today we look at the Cubs’ new flamethrowing reliever, a former first-round pick (#22 overall in 2013 by Baltimore), who has been in The Show since 2019.
Hunter Luke Harvey, son of former MLB reliever Bryan Harvey, came to the Cubs as a free agent, signing on New Year’s Eve, and is expected to take on a short relief/setup role, perhaps picking up save opportunities if Daniel Palencia is tired or unavailable.
In seven years split between Baltimore (where he was their No. 1 pick in 2013), Washington and Kansas City, Harvey has posted career numbers of 10-11, 3.11, with 11 saves, a 4.0 bWAR ( 3.6 fWAR) and a 1.10 WHIP. He is on a one-year, $6 million deal, with a 2027 mutual option. He’s had 201 strikeouts, 51 bases on balls, and 17 home runs in 185 innings, all of which are just fine, but he has struggled with injuries since 2024. That’s the risk, but he’s a high-reward-potential kind of arm and should serve the Cubs well with judicious use.
Keep him healthy and there will be returns. He’s a complementary arm but, as said, he brings the heat — one of his offerings was clocked at 99.8 mph, and he has consistently thrown in the 97-99 zone, with a n average of 95.7-96.1, with a very (+2000) spin rate. That’s good stuff, and a very different look for the Cubs’ bullpen, which hasn’t been very high-velocity, but seems to be turning that corner. He also throws a splitter (19.2 percent), slider (18 percent), and curve (9.6 percent).
He’s extremely likely to head north with the team after Spring Training concludes and presumably will be locking down the seventh or eighth in preparation for Palencia to step in and close the deal.
The 31-year-old will need careful handling. But high 90s with +spin is in vogue, and for good reason.
He's always in a cage, but you cannot contain him (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Instead of writing about Cal Raleigh’s 2025 season, I’d like to show you a few pitches that caught my attention.
April 17, bottom of the tenth
The Mariners had stormed back in the ninth inning to tie the game and send it to extras (thanks to a Cal Raleigh home run), which meant that Cal would have to wear the catcher’s gear for an extra inning.
In the 1930s, a catcher—either Muddy Ruel or Bill Dickey, depending on who you ask—referred to the mask, chest pad, and shin guards as “the tools of ignorance.” The irony was clear: anyone smart enough to play the position would be smart enough not to play it if he understood the risks.
You can see that phenomenon on display in this video as Andrés Muñoz spikes a slider that comes up and gets Cal Raleigh in the throat. The trainer comes out, but when the ump eventually asks if he needs more time, Cal just nods “nah, I’m good.”
A few days later, he hit a home run off the facing of the second deck.
May 29, top of the eighth
Here we see Cal catching a Matt Brash pitch that appears to jam his hand. He shakes it off, but one pitch after that, CJ Abrams fouls a ball back to the knob of Cal’s ankle, where there’s no protection. Former catcher Dave Valle is on the call, and you can hear the “believe me, that one hurts” tone in his voice. Cal takes a minute and grimaces, then gets back to it.
The next night, he hit a home run in the first inning. And then another one in the eighth.
June 23, bottom of the sixth
Another foul ball, this one to the inner thigh. Carlos Correa will never stop being hateable. Cal has to stand up and walk this one off, bouncing and hobbling around the plate for a moment. Three innings later, he hit his 32nd home run of the season.
July 12, bottom of the first
Detroit’s first batter tips one straight back to Cal’s wrist. But don’t worry. It’s not like you need your wrists for hitting. The umpire gives him a minute, knowing Cal’s got an entire game left of this. Two days later, Cal became the first catcher to win the Home Run Derby.
August 9, top of the ninth
In some ways, this isn’t really an article about Cal Raleigh. It’s about Andrés Muñoz’s slider, and Matt Brash’s curveball, and Logan Gilbert’s splitter, and Carlos Vargas’s entire arsenal. Cal catches a lot of pitches where the hurlers will be the first ones to tell you they’re not entirely sure where they’re going. In this clip, we get another spiked Muñoz slider, this one knocking dirt into Cal’s eye.
The next day, Cal Raleigh hit a home run.
August 20, bottom of the fifth
Alec Bohm hits a foul directly back into Cal’s mask, bouncing off his face and skull. He takes less than two seconds before reaching his glove out for the next ball. When I was in college, sometimes I would stay home from class because I “felt icky.”
That weekend, Cal hit two home runs in a game. The first traveled 448 feet and tied Salvador Perez’s record for most home runs by a catcher in a season. The second one, also over 400 feet, broke it.
August 24, top of the seventh
Later on in the game where Cal broke Salvy’s record, he catches Carlos Vargas. One of his pitches comes in wide off the plate. After 114 games behind the dish, this pinwheel is taking its toll.
Cal catches the wayward pitch awkwardly, has to drop his glove, and shake out his hand. In the first inning of the next day’s game, he hit his 50th home run.
September 16, bottom of the second inning
Logan Gilbert overthrows a curveball that bounces off the spring of home plate’s rubber and catches Cal in the throat. In the replay, you can see the flesh ripple. But four minutes later—four minutes later—Cal Raleigh hit a home run. About half an hour after that, he tied Ken Griffey Jr. for the franchise record.
ALDS Game 1, top of the 11th inning
After catching 1,072 innings in the regular season, having caught at least 1,000 in each of the last three years (the only player to do that), Cal takes a foul ball straight back into his face in the extra innings of a playoff game. 24 hours later, he doubled and scored the winning run for the Mariners’ first home playoff win in a quarter century.
You know what Cal Raleigh did last year. 60 home runs, just the fourth guy not connected to PEDs to do that. The most home runs by a catcher, as a catcher, by a switch hitter, by a Mariner. The first player to hit at least 20 home runs from both sides of the plate. And he did it while taking shot after shot while squatting with 15 extra pounds of gear in the summer heat. He’s smart enough to lead the Mariners pitching staff but too ignorant to understand why that’s a terrible idea. For Mariners fans, it’s bliss.
The first Spring Training games of 2026 get underway today! Grapefruit League play begins with Yankees vs. Orioles, and we'll see four all-pro matchups in the Cactus League out west.
Find out why I'm targeting a pair of plus-money teams in my MLB picks for Friday, February 20.
Spring Training predictions for February 20
Picks
Royals moneyline
+110
Rockies moneyline
+114
Padres vs. Mariners Over 11
-105
Pick #1: Royals moneyline
+110 at DraftKings
The Texas Rangers are likely favored due to the name value on the mound with Nathan Eovaldi taking the ball vs. Stephen Kolek. But I wouldn't be surprised if Eovaldi only lasts one inning in his first Cactus League start of 2026.
Eovaldi pitched only two innings in his initial Spring Training outing in 2025, coughing up two runs.
The Kansas City Royals were a robust 20-12 in exhibition play last season, scoring an MLB-best 204 runs.
Pick #2: Rockies moneyline
+114 at DraftKings
Antonio Senzatela gets the nod for the Colorado Rockies, and although his regular season stats were dismal in 2025, he was a force to be reckoned with in Spring Training, authoring a 1.21 ERA over 22 1/3 innings.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing things close to the vest, having yet to name a starter or announce a starting lineup. I don't think the recently-signed Zac Gallen will get the nod, which would be the only reason to wait for this line to jump in the right direction.
Pick #3: Padres vs Mariners Over 11
-105 at DraftKings
Runs came fast and furious in Seattle Mariners games last spring, as they scored 199 (second-most) and surrendered 202 (most). The San Diego Padres were also a poor defensive team in Cactus League play last year, allowing 180 runs (tied for fifth-most).
Neither starter will put fear into the hearts of their opponents today, with San Diego rolling with unproven rookie Jagger Hayes, and Seattle countering with journeyman Dane Dunning.
The announced starting lineups are dotted with stars, with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Cal Raleigh written in toward the top.
ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 24: Jacob deGrom #48 of the Texas Rangers pitches during a game against the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Field on September 24, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Alexandra Carnochan/Texas Rangers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With the 2025 Texas Rangers season having come to an end, we shall be, over the course of the offseason, taking a look at every player who appeared in a major league game for the Texas Rangers in 2025.
Today we are looking at pitcher Jacob deGrom.
Jacob deGrom made 30 starts for the Texas Rangers in 2025.
That, in and of itself, is a success of sorts. When the Texas Rangers signed Jacob deGrom after the 2022 season, there were many dire predictions that the Rangers wouldn’t get a full season from him, that he might not make 30 starts in the entirety of his Ranger career, much less in a single season.
The thing about the “deGrom isn’t durable” narrative is that went from non-existent to conventional wisdom in roughly 18 months. From 2017 through 2020, deGrom made 107 starts, tied with Jon Lester for the 6th most in MLB in that span. Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke and Rick Porcello each had 110 starts, Patrick Corbin had 109 starts, and Lance Lynn had 108 starts. He was first in innings pitched in that span, with 690.1.
Then in 2021 he had one of the weirdest great seasons ever, putting up a 1.08 ERA in 15 starts. He followed that up with 11 starts in 2022. The missed time over those two campaigns resulted in deGrom going from a workhorse to unreliable in the public’s eyes.
Then 2023 and 2024 and deGrom made just 9 starts for the Rangers due to undergoing his second Tommy John surgery. The haters said deGrom couldn’t stay healthy. And they were correct. Honestly great call from the haters.
Until this past year, when deGrom made his 30 starts and threw 172 innings and put concerns — immediate concerns, anyway — about his ability to stay healthy to rest.
And that was the important thing, because if Jacob deGrom is healthy, he’s going to be really good. There was not really any question about that. Which is kind of funny, given his background as a ninth round pick out of Stetson who didn’t pitch until his junior year, someone who had his first Tommy John surgery soon after being drafted, someone who never was hyped coming up, who topped out at #10 on the BA Mets prospect lists.
A couple of digressions real quick…
First of all, something I’ve theorized before is that guys who transition from being a position player to pitching have a higher than usual risk of UCL damage right after making the switch. I haven’t studied this, its just anecdotal in nature, but it seems like we see a lot of instances of players converting to pitching, showing promise, and then having to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. I would guess that the change in stress on the elbow for someone in their 20s makes them more likely to tear the UCL. That said, as I mentioned in the Sam Haggerty writeup yesterday, I’m not a doctor, and I don’t even play one on TV.
Secondly, Jacob deGrom made his major league debut one month before his 26th birthday. That’s incredibly late for a player who is legitimately great. Whenever deGrom retires, he’s going to have a fascinating Hall of Fame case. He’s not going to have big compiler numbers — hell, he doesn’t even have 100 career wins yet — but he still has the aura of a Hall of Famer, with a stretch of being historically dominant. His JAWS score, right now, is almost identical to Felix Hernandez, who looks like he’s going to get voted into the Hall in the next few years. (Though he does trail Johan Santana, and I’m still angry about him being one-and-done.)
Getting back on point…I think it is fair to ask, how good was Jacob deGrom, really, in 2025? Ace good, or solid mid-rotation starter good?
deGrom’s 2.97 ERA is impressive, the 13th best among the 70 major league pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched in 2025. His ERA+ of 123, however, ranked him 21st — a byproduct of B-R’s park factors treating the Shed as extremely pitcher-friendly. And his 2.9 bWAR had him tied for 27th in the majors, tied with Quinn Priester and, ironically, Merrill Kelly, and one slot behind his new teammate MacKenzie Gore, due to the credit that the Rangers defense (which B-R’s numbers have as easily the best in the majors in 2025) gets towards his run prevention.
Interestingly, deGrom didn’t allow an unearned run all season. Well, maybe that’s not interesting to you, but it is to me.
If you prefer fWAR, deGrom does better there, with his 3.4 fWAR being 21st in the majors among the 70 pitchers with at least 150 innings in 2025. And his xERA (3.36) ordinal ranking was even better, as he slotted in at 11th overall.
So its kind of complicated.
deGrom isn’t the same pitcher he was when he was with the Mets. His K rate — 27.7% in 2025 — is just great, not otherworldly (in that ridiculous 2021 season, he struck out 45% of the batters he faced). His walk rate is also great, not unworldly, though the combination of great K rate and great walk rate is still pretty special. His velocity is down a tad from his final years with the Mets (though higher, interestingly, than it was in his earlier years in New York), though with a fastball that average 97.5 mph in 2025 he’s still one of the hardest throwing starting pitchers in the game.
deGrom in 2025, though, did have issues with allowing loud contact. And, of course, he had issues with the long ball in 2025, allowing the highest HR/9 rate of his career, and the 16th highest of our 70 pitchers with at least 150 innings.
One of the interesting evolutions deGrom has undergone since joining the Rangers is that he has become a fly ball pitcher. That evolution has actually been in progress for a while — his first four seasons with the Mets, he had a ground ball rate of 47.4% to 48.0%. From 2019 to 2022 it dropped from 45.2% to 40.3%, and has been below 40% all three seasons with the Rangers, including 38.1% in 2025, per Statcast. As a point of reference, Statcast has the MLB average during deGrom’s career at 44.2%.
Really, deGrom’s homer issues didn’t become an issue until the back end of the 2025 season. Through the end of June, deGrom was sporting a 2.08 ERA and 3.08 FIP in 16 games, with just 9 homers allowed. For July through September, deGrom allowed 17 homers in 10 starts, resulting in a 4.07 ERA and a 4.34 FIP.
Weirdly, deGrom’s K rate actually improve somewhat in the final three months, while his walk rate stayed the same. His BABIP, which was miniscule all year — .230, 2nd best in our 70 pitcher sample — dipped slightly. He just went from giving up fewer than 1 home run per 9 innings in the first three months of the season to almost 2 bombs per 9 innings in the final three months.
Is it a cause for concern? Is this a trend, where we are going to be seeing deGrom feeding his gopher more and more often in 2026? Is it a matter of him just wearing down in his first season back after Tommy John surgery?
I do think its not unreasonable to think that the workload caught up to deGrom over the course of the 2025 season. The 172 innings he threw were more than he had thrown in the previous three seasons, majors and minors, combined. It was almost twice as many innings as he’d thrown in any single season, majors and minors combined, since 2019. And of course, he’s 37.
I’m not sure what to expect from deGrom in 2026. I expect he will be good. If he’s as good as he was in the first half of 2025, the Rangers will have one of the best pitchers in baseball.
CLEARWATER, MEXICO - MARCH 14: Devin Saltiban #35 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on prior to the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark on Friday, March 14, 2025 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Listen folks, we’re getting to the end of the list here, but c’mon. Even squinting doesn’t really make this one make sense.
Devin Saltiban – 88 Griffin Burkholder – 23 Keaton Anthony – 11 Carson DeMartini – 11 Seth Johnson – 10 Yoniel Curet – 8 Alex McFarlane – 7 Mavis Graves – 5 Ramon Marquez – 4 Zach McCambley – 2
Yeah, I don’t get this one. Probably a lot of fake voting going on here, but at least there are still plenty of people that like him. The below scouting report is at least mildly interested in him, as is Matt Winkelman, who has him 16th on his list. The “slow burn” description is probably rather apt at this point, but he’s going to have to show quite a bit of improvement this season, else he finds himself off a bunch of lists completely.
He’s a plus runner and packs a powerful pull-side punch for a smaller guy, but Saltiban remains a high-risk prospect because of his strikeout issues, which stem from a lack of breaking ball recognition. Saltiban played second base in 2024, then a mix of second and center field in 2025. He is a flub-prone infielder and was still struggling to read the ball off the bat in center at the end of last season, but the timeshare and injury limited him to just 37 games out there. He only played center field in Australia and nearly doubled his career start total at the position. It’s imperative for his defense to improve out there; Saltiban needs to be able to make an impact in the field to give his strikeouts room to breath. This is a toolsy, slow-burning prospect who turns 21 in February.
With each new post, we’ll reveal who won the voting for that particular slot, then post new players for you to vote on, adding another one to the list each time until we get to our final tally of 20. Once we get to 20 top prospects, we’ll do an honorable mention post at the end. If a player gets traded to another team, we’ll just chuck him right on outta here and all the players will move up a spot. If a prospect gets acquired, we’ll ask where he should go on the list.
Probably the most important thing about this whole process – please vote. Give us a few minutes of your time, just click a button and then we can discuss other players and things in the comment section, but don’t forget – VOTE!
In this episode of the Royals Rundown Podcast, Jacob Milham and Jeremy “Hokius” Greco dive into the excitement surrounding Kansas City Royals spring training and what fans can expect as the new season approaches. From the buzz around camp to the practical implications of updated strike zone rules and broadcasting changes, the hosts unpack how the viewing experience — and the game itself — is evolving.
The conversation also highlights the Royals’ continued support of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, underscoring the organization’s role in preserving baseball history and strengthening community ties. Jacob and Jeremy break down recent roster updates, player movement news, and leadership changes within the MLB Players Association — exploring how those shifts could influence future negotiations and league dynamics.
To close, the hosts offer thoughtful cultural reflections through a review of Mr. Baseball, using film as a lens to examine how the sport intersects with identity, globalization, and tradition.
Whether you’re following roster battles, adapting to new broadcasting elements, or simply ready for baseball to return, this episode delivers insight, context, and enthusiasm for the Royals and the game at large.
The Yankees had a big decision to make at the start of the offseason. While retaining Cody Bellinger on a long-term deal was high on the priority list, it was unclear what the team thought of their other starting outfielder, Trent Grisham, hitting the open market after a career year. With a questionable résumé prior to his breakout 2025 and a pair of young outfielders on the farm that could take over, there didn’t seem to be much urgency to reward the 29-year-old with a multi-year deal.
Still, they extended him a $22 million qualifying offer, which would provide the Yankees a compensatory fourth-round pick if he signed elsewhere. Whether they counted on him to decline it for more security or not, Grisham accepted the deal, possibly worrying his market would be depressed with the prohibitive qualifying offer and skepticism about his 2025 season being replicated.
With Grisham penciled into center field to start the season, he will have an opportunity to silence his doubters and enter a shallow free agent hitter’s pool next offseason, looking for a big payday.
A lot has been said on social media about the Yankees reuniting with Grisham. There’s been a great deal of “it’s an overpay” or “he’s a one-year wonder.” In fact, it feels like more fans expect him to be under the Mendoza Line than to repeat his 2025 season.
So can Grisham replicate his terrific 2025? It’s hard to say. It would be foolish to fully expect him to replicate an incredible year where he had a case to be named to the All-Star team, but he showed enough progression in his offensive profile that it can make you truly believe he will continue to be one of the better-hitting center fielders in the game.
For one, he’s 29, not 33. If a guy randomly progresses in his mid-to-late 30s (looking at you, George Springer), you can probably assume some regression to the mean. For Grisham, he’s still in his athletic prime. His xwOBA has absolutely exploded from mediocre to the 91st percentile, indicating he’s doing things to back up his offensive numbers. He’s also improved his strikeout rate, which, while still mediocre, is no longer a serious problem.
A lot of what Grisham has improved, however, has been taking his already good offensive traits and making them elite. He’s historically been above average in barrel rate, average exit velocity, chase rate, and walk rate. In all four areas, he’s raised those numbers to elite. His chase rate, especially, has improved. It’s now in the 99th percentile. He obliterated fastballs in 2025 and used his pull-side power to abuse the short porch.
Grisham’s elite chase and walk rates are what make him the early favorite to be the team’s leadoff hitter on Opening Day. Now, you might want someone who’s a better contact hitter and baserunner to hit in front of the likes of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton, but Grisham’s ability to get on base makes him good enough with the current roster.
It’s actually funny to think about how Grisham, a perennial Gold Glove contender whose bat is the reason he couldn’t stick in starting lineups, completely flipped that script in 2025.
It used to be a given that Grisham would give you that defense, and while he still showed flashes of brilliance last year, he was really bad most of the season. He did play through a hamstring strain during the summer that killed his mobility, but the defense was suspect from start to finish. It’s concerning that a relatively healthy 29-year-old has gone from 88th percentile sprint speed to 32nd in just three years, but he managed to be a terrific defender in 2024 with a similar sprint speed, so maybe there’s still something there. Half the battle is instincts, which Grisham has in abundance.
There’s enough to like in Grisham’s profile to suggest that he’s more likely to be close to the offensive threat he was in 2025, especially considering his contract situation. A good season and he’ll be the top outfielder on the market next offseason, even with the lockout, with no qualifying offer attached. But if he slips up, the Yankees will have options behind him. How long is the leash? We’ll see.
DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 29: Chicago White Sox pitcher Gus Varland (37) pitches in the seventh inning during the Detroit Tigers versus the Chicago White Sox game on Wednesday September 29, 2024 at Comerica Park in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Towards the end of the offseason, Paul Toboni went on a spree of waiver claims. In particular, he added quite a few bullpen arms to the mix. With the number of guys he got, odds are that at least one of them hits and makes an impact for the team. I took a look at my three favorite claims he made.
My favorite pitcher Toboni acquired from this process is Andre Granillo. While he technically was not a waiver claim, he came to the Nats as part of the waiver process. The Nats claimed pitcher George Soriano from the Braves on January 30th, then quickly DFA’d him on February 5th.
However, the Cardinals wanted to cut the waiver line to get Soriano. To do that, they just traded reliever Andre Granillo to the Nats in exchange for Soriano. Honestly, I do not really get this move from the Cardinals perspective because I think Granillo is the much better pitcher. In his first taste of MLB action last year, Granillo posted a 4.74 ERA, much better than Soriano’s 8.35 ERA. Granillo is also the younger pitcher.
In addition to mostly holding his own at the MLB level, Granillo was dominant in AAA. He posted a 1.29 ERA in 42 innings at the Triple-A level. Granillo’s bread and butter is a wipeout slider he throws well over half the time. At the MLB level, Granillo threw the slider 65% of the time. Despite the heavy usage, the pitch was still effective and got whiffs almost 35% of the time in the MLB.
While Granillo’s fastball sits at about 95 MPH, the quality of the pitch is not great, so he has to rely on that slider. However, that slider is good enough to make him a solid middle reliever. Granillo also showed an occasional changeup to lefties which had some promise. If that can become a real weapon, there could be higher leverage upside for the 25 year old.
I just think Granillo has everything you want in a waiver claim reliever. He dominated in the minors, is still young, has intriguing stuff, has minor league options and held his own at the MLB level. At worst, Granillo will be a solid up and down relief arm. However, I think he is fully capable of grabbing a full time spot in the bullpen.
Another pitcher who has the talent to grab a full time bullpen spot is Gus Varland. He looked like he was on his way to doing that with the White Sox back in 2024. That season, he posted a 3.42 ERA in 26.1 innings with 27 strikeouts. However, Varland’s 2025 was ravaged by injuries.
He did not appear in the MLB and only made 8 appearances in the minors. If he can get back to what he was in 2024, that is a big league reliever though. Unlike Granillo, Varland’s bread and butter is the fastball. He sits 95-96 MPH and the pitch has great shape. It has explosive life at the top of the zone at its best.
Varland’s heater gets both run and ride. It has 18 inches of ride and 11 inches of run. Both of those numbers are above average. That life is why he was able to throw his heater 55.6% of the time and still get quality results. To go with the heater, Varland has a hard slider that is a bit inconsistent. It can be good at times, but is also susceptible to damage.
Like Granillo, Varland has experimented with a changeup, and making that a consistent third pitch would be helpful. I just think Varland has the ability to be a solid middle reliever who can make 60 appearances in a season and put up an ERA around 3.50. That is nothing flashy, but the Nats need guys like that.
The last potentially impactful waiver claim I want to talk about is a slightly different profile. Paxton Schultz, who the Nats claimed from the Blue Jays, is more of a multi-inning relief arm. He is even able to make some spot starts if needed.
The 28 year old was solid when called upon for the Blue Jays last year. He posted a decent 4.38 ERA in 24.2 innings. Schultz struck out 28 batters and only walked 8 in that time as well. He does not have elite stuff, so he got hit at times, but he always competed out there.
Schultz also performed in multiple roles. He made 13 appearances for the Jays last year, with two of them being starts. Schultz went at least two innings in 6 of his 13 outings. Like Varland, Schultz has a fastball with good carry. He does not get as much ride as Varland, but he also throws from a lower slot. The lower slot and still good ride makes his fastball shape strong.
Recently-DFA'd RHP Paxton Schultz could be worth a #Padres waiver claim.
In 2025 at the MLB level: – 25.5% K | 7.3% BB – 27.4% Whiff & Chase (32.7% vs FC) – 1.46 HR/9, .333 BABIP can indicate positive regression
The heater averages just under 94 MPH, but that shape helps it play up. As someone who goes multiple innings, Schultz has a deeper pitch mix than most relievers. In addition to the heater, Schultz throws a cutter, a changeup and a slider. None of them are elite, but the cutter and changeup are good pitches.
Schultz is a bit like Brad Lord. He can just do whatever you need him to in a bullpen and can even make starts. Lord is more of a real starter than Schultz, but you get the point. The Nats have quite a few pitchers who can fill that long relief role, so Schultz needs to pitch well to make the team.
Even if he does not make the team out of camp, I have a hard time believing he will not make an impact at some point. Schultz is a very valuable optionable arm to have. When the bullpen is tired, you can call him up and he can absorb innings for you.
In a sea of waiver claims this offseason, I think Andre Granillo, Gus Varland and Paxton Schultz will be the most impactful. They all have a history at the MLB level and do not require much projection. None are likely to be stars, but all of them are capable of being solid contributors.
SARASOTA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 18: Jordan Westburg #11 of the Baltimore Orioles poses for a photo during Spring Training photo day at Ed Smith Stadium on February 18, 2026 in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Yesterday, The Baltimore Banner reported that Jordan Westburg has undergone elbow imaging, indicating that there was concern about damage to ligaments. On Friday morning, Orioles GM Mike Elias delivered the official news about what’s going on with Westburg’s elbow. The infielder has been diagnosed with a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament. That’s the ligament that requires Tommy John surgery after a full tear.
According to Elias, the initial treatment for Westburg is going to be a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection. At a minimum, he will be out through the end of April and things will be re-evaluated at that point. The PRP injection is an option to avoid surgery for only a partial tear. It doesn’t always work, as was demonstrated two years ago now when Kyle Bradish tried to avoid TJ by getting the PRP injection. In Bradish’s case, it worked for eight starts and then he needed the surgery anyway.
If you’re not optimistic about the PRP working and Westburg avoiding the surgery, I don’t blame you. In this case, for a position player, there’s not really a lot of downside to trying it. While position player rehab times for Tommy John are typically quicker than pitchers, Westburg would be done for the year if he decided he was getting the surgery tomorrow. He would also have a good shot of being fully ready to return for the start of next year’s spring training. That should still be the case even if he ends up deciding on May 1 that the only option is surgery. Trying the PRP injection is a longshot with almost no cost and a decent upside.
Westburg felt the elbow soreness while rehabbing for his oblique issue, Elias said. The imaging done on his elbow suggested that Westburg has probably had the partial tear in the UCL for a while. The throwing done by a position player just doesn’t do the same kind of stress on the elbow as pitching, so he could probably play through the issue and maybe not even think of it as much of an issue until this month when he suddenly could not. That’s the way it goes sometimes.
This is not good news. About all you can say about it is that at least now the Orioles have some clarity, in the sense that they know Westburg is going to miss at least a month, so they’ve got the remainder of spring training to figure out a solution to this absence. Between Jackson Holliday’s broken hamate bone and this, two of the four infield spots will be covered by backup options as the season begins. Holliday, at least, shouldn’t be out for as long, and his playing at all this season is less in doubt.
Whether the Orioles have readily-available solutions based on who is in camp already is another thing. Coby Mayo is taking aspirational grounders at third base and recently-acquired infielder Blaze Alexander might be able to be the guy for second base. Mayo needs some work at third and maybe he can’t be good enough no matter how much work he puts in. He also needs to hit enough to be worth playing at any position.
I hope the Orioles don’t get too invested in believing that Westburg will be back on May 1. I also don’t think that they will do this. They will know the PRP success rate even better than any of us. There’s only so much they can do on February 20 to adjust. “Use the backup plan we already had in place” is probably going to look the same as “do nothing.” As spring training moves along, we’ll get a sense of what that backup plan is and on Opening Day we’ll start to see how well it works.
PORT CHARLOTTE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 19: Drew Rasmussen #57 of the Tampa Bay Rays poses for a picture during the 2026 Tampa Bay Rays Photo Day at Charlotte Sports Park on February 19, 2026 in Port Charlotte, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Spring Training games still haven’t begun but that didn’t stop Kevin Cash from declaring the team’s Opening Day starter.
Taking the mound on March 26th in St Louis for the Tampa Bay Rays on Opening Day will be Drew Rasmussen.
“I’m really honored. It’s really cool to get the opportunity to pitch on opening day. Just being given the opportunity, it is a blessing, and it is humbling. And I’m excited for the opportunity.”
Rasmussen, 30, was originally selected by the Rays with the 31st overall selection in the 2017 draft but the right-handed pitcher went unsigned; a year later, Rasmussen was taken in the 6th round by the Milwaukee Brewers. He’d quickly make his big league debut in the 2020 season and then eventually find his way to the Rays as he would be traded to Tampa Bay for Willy Adames in 2021. He had a breakout campaign in 2022 and looked tobe a possible Cy Young candidate early in 2023 before his arm decided to explode and he would mis the majority of the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
This past year, Rasmussen made his return to be being a full time starting pitcher and enjoyed an All-Star campaign, compiling a 2.76 ERA | 3.84 FIP with a 21.7 K% & 6.3 BB% 0ver 150 innings pitched; due to Rasmussen’s injury history, the Rays limited his workload throughout the season, never permitting him to throw more than six innings in a game despite stellar performances.
The plan seems to be different in 2026 with Kyle Snyder saying that he think it’s “very reasonable” to expect Rasmussen to provide 170 innings this season, and bestowing upon him a starring role, in addition to his new clubhouse responsibilities as the clubhouse’s MLBPA representative.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - MAY 11: Mike Baumann #53 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 11, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
One of the my favorite bits in Mets discourse these days is that the only part of roster building that David Stearns is actually excited about is dumpster diving for relief arms. Signing a young superstar to a record-setting contract? Boring. Trading for a potentially electric center fielder or a very affordable #2 starter? Grunt work. Digging into NPB stats to pick out some minor league guys to invite to camp? There we go, that’s the good stuff.
Enter Mike Baumann (not to be confused with Michael Baumann the Fangraphs writer). A third round pick out of Jacksonville University in 2017, Baumann was never a top prospect not even a particularly notable one; even in the dog days of the Orioles rebuild, his stuff was never good enough to merit an extended chance in the rotation, nor was he very good out of the bullpen. The Orioles eventually cut him loose during the 2024 season, and he’d wind up bouncing between not one, not two, but four other teams before heading off to Japan for the 2025 season. After 15 mediocre innings with the Yakult Swallows (where he walked 7.2 batters per nine), he’s now back stateside on a minor league deal with an invite to camp.
What did the Mets see here? Well it’s definitely not the top-line performance as we just discussed, so it must be the underlying stuff. And indeed, all the public-facing stuff models have something positive to say about Baumann’s 2024 arsenal. His knuckle-curve was scored a 67 by PitchingBot (20-80 scale), a 118 by Stuff+ (100 is average), a 122 (100 is average) by Rob Orr’s metrics, and -1.1 by Baseball Prospectus’s StuffPro (negative is better). The movement profile isn’t amazing, but he throws it hard for a curve at 87.8 MPH. You can catch a couple shots of this pitch proving to be an effective put away offering in this 2024 compilation – watch out for the Miguel Sano jump scare at the start.
Baumann also has a fastball that’s consistently graded out as slightly above average (ignoring what I assume is a calibration or small sample size issue from PitchingBot in 2024), so you can see the potential building blocks. Maybe it’s a tweak to the fastball shape to make it a more effective offering and get Baumann two above average pitches. Maybe it’s an adjustment to his mix to focus more on the knuckle curve. Perhaps it’s a new third pitch or an improvement to his current slider or changeup that makes it all work better together. It could even be that some of this has already happened in Japan last year and we just can’t see it because we don’t have the data. There are a lot of different directions this could go.
Most minor league signings of this type never amount to much – a single appearance or three in the dog days of summer, or potentially only a couple of Spring Training outings before the club goes in a different direction. The success the Mets have had recently with pitching development is infectious though, as is David Stearns’ track record with building bullpens. You almost believe that everything they touch will turn to gold. Maybe that will be the case for Mike Baumann, providing him a respite from his professional odyssey and the Mets meme creators more fuel for their most reliable bit.
Feb 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Josue De Paula against the Chicago Cubs during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
With actual (spring training) games about to start, all the major prospect lists entering 2026 are in, which allows us to form a consensus of sorts. For the Dodgers prospects, the outfielders lead the way.
Josue De Paula is the top-rated Dodgers prospect at Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, and ESPN. Eduardo Quintero is the top-rated prospect in the system according to The Athletic and Baseball America. De Paula’s average prospect rank in baseball at those six sites is 18.5, with Quintero averaging 27.7.
Zyhir Hope is the other Dodgers prospect named in the top 100 at all six of those national outlets, ranging from 18th to 63rd with an average of 37.5. Mike Sirota, completing the Dodgers outfield quartet, was ranked between 34th and 60th at five of the six sites, but was outside of the top 110 at FanGraphs.
Shortstop Emil Morales was also named to five top-100 lists, ranging between 56th and 92nd on those lists, missing out only on the Baseball America list.
In all, 10 different Dodgers prospects were ranked within the top 111 in baseball entering 2026. If we limit it to top 100 only, seven Dodgers were included on at least one of those lists.
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 19: Connor Wong #12 of the Boston Red Sox does sliding drills during a workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 19, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning! The Red Sox will play an honest-to-god baseball game today, as Spring Training is finally under way. So my question to you today is: what are you watching for in Spring Training?
For fans, Spring Training tends to be about two things: the new guys and the rookies. But in the case of the 2026 Red Sox, a few of the big new names will be off playing in the World Baseball Classic (Ranger Suárez and Willson Contreras) while another (Sonny Gray) is more of a known commodity. Meanwhile, the club doesn’t really have any unknown rookies in camp this season, though there are plenty of young guys who still have questions to answer.
So here’s what I’ll have my eye on this spring:
Will either Connelly Early or Payton Tolle force themselves into the rotation?
WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 16: AJ Blubaugh #69 of the Houston Astros throws a bullpen session during spring training workouts at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on February 16, 2026 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be rolling out a series of prospect previews for Spring Training. This week we look at one of the top arms: AJ Blubaugh.
Blubaugh was selected in the seventh round of the 2022 draft out of the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee after a solid, albeit limited, college career. In his first full professional season, he showed promise, striking out 112 batters over 100 innings. Despite a 4.41 ERA, he finished strong in Double-A with a 1.26 ERA. In 2024, he had a true breakout season, reaching Triple-A and finishing with a 3.71 ERA and 133 strikeouts over 128.2 innings, helping Sugar Land capture the Triple-A Championship.
Heading into 2025, expectations were high for continued success and a potential big league call-up. He made a couple solid starts before his MLB debut, where he allowed seven runs, two earned, over four innings. The next eight starts were a struggle, as he gave up 37 earned runs in 34.1 innings. Blubaugh regained his footing and earned a call-up in August, striking out eight over five innings in relief against Miami.
He finished the 2025 season in Houston dominant, posting a 1.69 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 32 innings while allowing just 17 hits. Blubaugh showcased a 98 MPH fastball and a devastating changeup which he didn’t allow a single hit with the pitch at the major league level, proving he has the tools to be a reliable big league arm. Blubaugh is extremely athletic and a former basketball player. Blubaugh is extremely athletic and a former basketball player, which contributes to his strong arm and agility on the mound.
Now entering 2026, Blubaugh has a legitimate opportunity to establish himself as a reliable big league arm. Read more on his 2025 season here.
Sep 25, 2025; Anaheim, California, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) gestures after hitting a double during the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Liang-Imagn Images | William Liang-Imagn Images
With the expiration date of the current competitive bargaining agreement between the Major League Baseball Players Association and the owners looming over the end of the season like a supermoon in the sky, you can be assured that there will be lots of digital ink spilled all year long about the key negotiating issues. This is, of course, one of those pieces discussing one of the key negotiating issues. The issue at hand is arguably the central issue: that of a potential salary cap.
You all know the generalities by now. MLB is the only major American sports league without a salary cap. The MLBPA has historically resisted any form of a salary cap. The owners increasingly want a salary cap. None of this has changed. What has changed is that we’re close enough to the new CBA negotiations that we’re starting to see some actual numbers floated about. Evan Drellich, probably the most well-versed and well-connected journalist on this particular topic, included what his sources are telling him could be some realistic proposed numbers in a recent piece for The Athletic:
Whatever the owners first propose probably is not where they’d be willing to end up. A reasonable goal from an ownership perspective might be $240 million at the top and $160 million at the bottom, one source briefed on management thinking who was not authorized to speak publicly said.
There are a lot of arguments, many of them deep and interesting, about whether a salary cap would benefit players or owners or lead to more or less competitive balance. For now, let us set these gently aside as out of the scope of our little examination. Let’s pretend that, tomorrow, the league and the union magically agreed to this exact salary cap. What’s the fallout?
To find out, I looked at Cot’s Baseball Contracts and pulled the 2026 projected Opening Day payrolls for all 30 MLB teams. For any team under the $160 million floor, I adjusted their payroll figure to exactly $160 million. For any team over the $240 million ceiling, I adjusted their payroll figure to exactly $240 million. I then put them in a fun little spreadsheet so we all can see the results:
Team
2026 Opening Day Projected
2026 Salary Cap Adjusted
Difference
New York Mets
$355,204,181
$240,000,000
-$115,204,181
Los Angeles Dodgers
$314,895,813
$240,000,000
-$74,895,813
New York Yankees
$296,398,833
$240,000,000
-$56,398,833
Philadelphia Phillies
$280,583,618
$240,000,000
-$40,583,618
Toronto Blue Jays
$274,188,218
$240,000,000
-$34,188,218
Atlanta Braves
$259,586,000
$240,000,000
-$19,586,000
Houston Astros
$236,532,333
$236,532,333
$0
Chicago Cubs
$220,383,079
$220,383,079
$0
San Diego Padres
$215,130,898
$215,130,898
$0
Detroit Tigers
$203,747,859
$203,747,859
$0
San Francisco Giants
$193,459,922
$193,459,922
$0
Boston Red Sox
$187,500,905
$187,500,905
$0
Texas Rangers
$183,055,000
$183,055,000
$0
Arizona Diamondbacks
$181,129,256
$181,129,256
$0
Los Angeles Angels
$174,865,260
$174,865,260
$0
Baltimore Orioles
$165,694,000
$165,694,000
$0
Seattle Mariners
$159,446,881
$160,000,000
$553,119
Kansas City Royals
$140,459,488
$160,000,000
$19,540,512
Cincinnati Reds
$126,921,333
$160,000,000
$33,078,667
Milwaukee Brewers
$125,492,605
$160,000,000
$34,507,395
Colorado Rockies
$119,501,290
$160,000,000
$40,498,710
Pittsburgh Pirates
$105,673,500
$160,000,000
$54,326,500
Minnesota Twins
$104,090,857
$160,000,000
$55,909,143
St. Louis Cardinals
$98,125,000
$160,000,000
$61,875,000
Washington Nationals
$90,564,700
$160,000,000
$69,435,300
Wandering Athletics
$89,110,713
$160,000,000
$70,889,287
Tampa Bay Rays
$85,178,000
$160,000,000
$74,822,000
Chicago White Sox
$85,008,000
$160,000,000
$74,992,000
Cleveland Guardians
$74,552,140
$160,000,000
$85,447,860
Miami Marlins
$73,936,000
$160,000,000
$86,064,000
TOTAL
$5,220,415,682
$5,641,498,512
$421,082,830
The quick and dirty results: if MLB had implemented this particular version of the salary cap and floor, the players in aggregate would have gotten $421 million more in salary. Only six teams were above the ceiling. Meanwhile, more than double the teams—14!—were below the floor. There were as many teams at least $69 million below the floor as there were teams above the ceiling by any amount.
Sure, there are still some free agents out there, but Fangraphs’ free agent tracker lists only three players that project to get $10 million+ this year and have yet to sign: Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, and Zack Littell. And sure, this doesn’t include 40-man rosters, which cost each team a few extra million to fill out. On the other hand, a realistic scenario here wouldn’t have a whopping 14 teams at the exact $160 million floor; just a few million dollars spent above that floor for each team would cancel both things out.
So why has the union resisted if something like this would result in more money in the pockets of their members? There’s the principal of the matter, as the union likely feels it’s not their fault that teams like the Guardians, Rays, and Brewers are such incredible cheap-asses. Additionally, the union is trying to protect the earning potential for its best players. Under this scenario, the stars of the game would see their earning potential curtailed without the half dozen or so largest markets able to flex their financial muscles.
I don’t have a huge sweeping takeaway for you. The only thing I offer is the data’s perspective here, and a perhaps more subjective perspective informed by the data: if the players stay disciplined and focused, they can give the owners the salary cap that they want while securing terms that widen their slice of the revenue pie—all while catering to a public that’s generally sick of seeing big market teams push their way to the top.
Royals moneyline
Rockies moneyline
Padres vs. 
Mariners Over 11
