Category: Baseball

Today, the Houston Astros announced they have traded reliever Nate Pearson to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for righthanded pitching prospect Max Martin.

Martin, 22, has posted a 6-2 record with a 2.01 ERA in 26 relief appearances across two levels of Class A ball in the Royals system this season. Martin was a 10th round pick by Kansas City in the 2025 draft.

Pearson, 29, has made 16 appearances for the Astros this season. He is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Pearson was one of the hardest throwers in the Astros pen, able to hit 98 MPH with his fastball. Command has been an issue for Pearson, who has walked 12 batters in 20 innings this season to go with 16 strikeouts.

The Astros clear a roster spot on both the 26-man and 40-man roster with the move.

SP Hayden Wesneski is scheduled to make one more rehab start before being activated, and now his pathway back to the roster is clearer.

After two games that couldn’t be more different than each other, the Dodgers look to take the second series of the second half in Philadelphia.

Monday’s game was a slugfest, and Tuesday’s game was a pitching duel that ended in a huge base running mistaken double play by the Phillies runners. Wednesday’s game could bring anything at the point.

The Dodgers will send Eric Lauer to the mound, who quietly has been giving the Dodgers consistently good outings since joining the team. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight games. But, he’s not a big strikeout guy, and he’s not a ground ball guy, so the Phillies offense could go back to doing what they did in game one of the series and let the long balls fly.

Trea Turner has a six-game hit streak going, and he’s 6-for-16 against Lauer with a 1.224 OPS. He has two homers against him, including a grand slam while he was a Dodger.

Aaron Nola will go for Philly, and the right hander has had a very up and down season so far. He’s 3-7 with a 5.68 ERA, but has had decent outings as of late, not allowing more than three earned runs in any of them, and striking out at least six in each of his last three.

Lauer threw 99 pitches in his last outing, which was two weeks ago. With Justin Wrobleski going deep yesterday, the bullpen should be fairly well rested, and the team has an off day tomorrow.

If the Dodgers offense could get things going against an arm like Nola, the Dodgers could easily continue their streak of not having lost a Lauer start.

Wednesday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Phillies
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
• Start time: 3:40 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Today marks Dave Stieb’s 69th birthday.

We saw Stieb on the weekend. He looks like he could still play.

Stieb holds the franchise records for wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, games started, complete games, and many other pitching categories. His 103 complete games in 408 starts for the Blue Jays is a mark unlikely to be matched unless baseball fundamentally changes. It’s hard to imagine another pitcher ever completing a quarter of their starts again.

He and Roy Halladay are 1 and 1A atop the list of greatest Blue Jays pitchers. My opinion occasionally shifts, but I generally give the edge to Stieb—those complete games and innings pitched mean a lot. But then they played in different eras. In my view, Stieb was the best American League pitcher of the 1980s.

Stieb was also, to put it nicely, an intense competitor. He loved to win and didn’t always react well when teammates made mistakes behind him (can you imagine him playing for the Jays this week?). I remember seeing him glare at fielders from the mound; I doubt that all of his teammates were big fans of his demeanor.

A few years ago, I asked Pat Hentgen a few questions about Stieb:

From the outside, it always seemed like Stieb wasn’t the greatest person?

For some reason, he took a liking to me when I played there, so we got pretty close during my first year with him, and we stayed in touch through the 90s until he made his comeback in 98. We shared the same agent. There’s always been a connection there. He’s always helped me. He’s always been a guy I could call while playing. Call him and talk about the mental focus, things he did, and tools to get back on track. It was nice to have a guy who was 10 years ahead of me in age, experience, and life in general. It’s been a great relationship.

He was a hero of mine as a kid, I guess, because he was the best player on the team at the time.

He was very good. I mean it was way before satellite TV and all that crap. My agent used to tell me he’d go months without a ball hit hard off him. You try to make it through one game without a hard-hit ball. I remember Bob, my agent, telling me that Dave, in his prime, went months without a ball hit hard. Give up singles and balls that bloop in, but no one would hit a ball hard. He was big-time dominant. He was so dominant.

He didn’t always seem to enjoy his teammates.

No kidding. I am sure he has said to me that he regrets some of the things he did early in his career as far as some of that stuff on the field. A very fierce competitor; you go to his place to play darts, it is ‘look out, game on,’ you know. Whatever you play, that is just the way he is. I don’t know if it is because he had an older brother. He was trying to keep up with him or what, but he is one hell of a competitor.

Happy Birthday, Dave. I hope it is a good one.

Cliff Johnson turns 79 today.

Cliff Johnson was a designated hitter who played for the Jays from 1983 to 1986, with a half-season stint for the Texas Rangers in between. I always thought Cliff was our first truly effective DH. He joined the team as a veteran at age 35 in 1983, already with 11 seasons in the majors. He was part of the Jays’ transformation from a struggling expansion team to a perennial playoff contender. In 1985—the franchise’s first playoff year—Bobby Cox platooned him with Al Oliver.

As a Blue Jay, Johnson hit .273/.372/.466 with 54 home runs and 202 RBI over four seasons. Across his 15-year career, he posted a .258/.355/.459 line with 196 home runs and 568 RBI. He was always a solid hitter but never known for his defense. Although he played catcher, first base, and outfield, DH was the ideal role for him.

I remember commentators calling him Heathcliff, but he’s listed as Clifford on his Baseball-Reference page. I thought Heathcliff was a cool name back then.

Happy Birthday, Cliff; have a good one.

Tim Johnson turns 77 today.

Tim played for the Jays in 1978 and 1979, wrapping up a seven-season MLB career. He appeared in 111 games for Toronto, batting .212/.284/.248 with one home run.

And you will likely remember that he was our manager in 1998. The team went 88-74 that season. So since we were 76-86 the season before, we were pretty happy with him.

Tim tried to motivate his players with stories of his time in Vietnam. Unfortunately, it was later revealed that these stories were fabricated—he had never served in Vietnam and was actually a Marine reservist while playing in the Dodgers’ minor league system. Exaggerating a resume is one thing, but lying about military service is unacceptable. He also falsely claimed to have received a basketball scholarship to UCLA.

Gord Ash ended up firing him. Ash didn’t have much luck with picking managers.

Happy Birthday, Tim.

Worcester: PPD (Rain), Make-Up Today

That same storm that compromised the Red Sox game ended up raining ou Worcester, too. And, in the same manner, the WooSox play the Jumbo Shrimp (Marlins AAA) in a double-header today, with first pitch at 4:05.

Portland: W, 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Sea Dogs had just five hits in Binghamton (Mets AA) in the series opener, but that’s all they needed due to the timing of these runs. Jack Winnay, who’s been scorching hot this month, hit a solo shot in the third. Ronald Rosario hit a two-run ball in the next inning, and, with the score all tied at 4, what do you know? Brooks Brannon came through in a big way in the ninth inning with what would become the game-winning home run. It’s worth noting before we start the “all he does is get on base narrative!” that Brannon struck out twice on the night before that home run, but he came through when it mattered, as he often has this season.

Realistically, does Brannon fit on this team in the long term? Who’s to say. The spot that belonged to Triston Casas has now never been more solidly Willson Contreras’, at least for the next couple of years. Brannon will be just 24 years of age when that contract expires. There’s also no one that immediately comes to mind near him save for Rosario who’s surely winning fans over with his propensity for the long ball. But how much can you get at the deadline for packaging a 22-year-old catcher/first base hybrid who put on a ton of muscle and hits nukes? Time may be able to tell us in just a few short days.

Greenville: L, 1-5 (BOX SCORE)

Twenty total runners stranded between the two teams in Greenville, but the Spartanburgers (Astros High-A) had a two-run home run in the eighth along with one other RBI (their only hit with runners in scoring position) and that made all the difference. Kyson Witherspoon had another okay start Tuesday. He failed to get out of the fifth, but he allowed four hits and two runs, so it could have been worse… unfortunately, on a night where the offense put up a single run, it wasn’t enough.

I want to go on record and say that I’d be fine with Witherspoon being dealt while he still has his prospect shine to see if some other team can get the most out of him. But if he survives the deadline and heads to Maine (not that he’s earned a promotion yet) Portland’s pitching coach Sean Isaac has already worked on so many prolific arms that maybe there’s some promising work to be done there.

Salem: L, 4-7 (F/7) (BOX SCORE)

My rally cap was on, man, what the hell!

After six innings of scoreless baseball from GreenJackets (Braves A) pitcher Davis Polo (such an awesome name) the RidgeYaks leveraged a Greensboro throwing error to load the bases, and speed demon (and other potential trade piece) Andrews Opata didn’t need any of that speed because he drilled a ball over the fence to make it a 7-4 ball game. Franklin Primera walked, and the tying run was on deck when Kleyvar Salazar came to the plate. But the only thing unraveling faster than the game for the GreenJackets was the weather above the RidgeYak’s stadium as the storm travelled south, and the umps called the contest with two outs, one on.

The Yankees bullpen has always been a key part of World Series championships, and it’s seen a host of exciting names throughout the organization’s history. The first name that comes to mind is Mariano Rivera, but after that, an assortment of names could fly depending on who is asked. Goose Gossage, Dave Righetti, David Robertson, and others are all potential candidates, but so is Sparky Lyle — one of the most memorable faces in Yankees history, he arrived from the club’s biggest rival and helped the Bombers on their way to multiple World Series championships. A beloved figure in those clubhouses, we celebrate Sparky today.

Albert Walter “Sparky” Lyle
Born: July 22, 1944 (Du Bois, PA)
Yankees Tenure: 1972-78

Lyle was born in July 1944 outside Pittsburgh in Du Bois, PA, and grew up in Reynoldsville, about a 15-minute drive away. He attended Reynoldsville High School for four years, where he played varsity football and basketball before the spring of his junior year, when he began playing American Legion baseball for the DuBois team. At the time, his high school could not field a team, so he had to find other outlets to play the sport. After trying out for the Pittsburgh Pirates (and eventually being rejected), Lyle was scouted by the Baltimore Orioles, who signed him as an amateur free agent.

Lyle spent the 1964 season within the Orioles organization, playing six games in West Virginia for the Bluefield Orioles and then the Fox Cities Foxes in Appleton, Wisconsin. He was used as a reliever in Bluefield, starting only four of the seven games he played. He earned himself a promotion to Fox Cities, where he posted a 2.31 ERA in six games, all six of which he started.

On November 30th of the same year, the Boston Red Sox drafted Lyle from Baltimore. Lyle started his second year of pro ball in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, with the Single-A Red Sox in 1965. He pitched in 37 games with only five games started, and it was not a pretty season. He finished with an adequate 5-5 record, but a 4.24 ERA with 79 strikeouts in 87 innings, along with 55 walks, was not where he wanted to be at the end of the year.

Following the season, though, he received a promotion to Double-A Pittsfield, but before that, he had a stop at spring training, where he had one of the most influential meetings of his pitching career.

Red Sox legend Ted Williams was a man above the rest when he was playing and even after. He was “The Kid” after all. And even though he had been done playing by the time Lyle got to spring training that year, it was Williams who taught him exactly what a slider was supposed to look like and do in the air. Williams told Lyle that it was the one pitch he had trouble with, and Sparky figured that if it was good enough to stymie the man styled as “the greatest hitter who ever lived,” then it was worth mastering. And from the time he was fully introduced to the pitch in 1965 spring training, it became a key part of his repertoire.

In 1966, Lyle saw a jump in his numbers with Pittsfield, going from a 4.24 ERA at Single-A to a 3.65 ERA in Double-A with 72 strikeouts in 74.0 innings pitched. He then made another jump to Triple-A to begin the 1967 season, while still working on his slider, and played 16 games (all as a reliever) with a 1.71 ERA, the best of his minor league career.

Lyle finally made his debut when he was called up to Boston after left-handed pitcher Dennis Bennett was sold to the New York Mets on June 24, 1967. It was on July 4, 1967, against the California Angels that Lyle pitched two scoreless innings to close out a 4-3 Red Sox loss, and he recorded his first career save 12 days later on July 16th in Boston’s 9-5 victory over the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park. In 27 games during his rookie season, Lyle finished with a 1–2 record, five saves, and a 2.28 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 43.1 innings pitched, though he did not throw for the “Impossible Dream” Red Sox in the World Series due to arm soreness.

From his debut in 1967 to 1971, Lyle pitched for the Red Sox in the major leagues, and he pitched considerably more. In 1968, he threw in 49 games, and that number ramped up to 71 in 1969, the second-highest of his career. In those two seasons he also kept his ERA under 3.00 with 2.74 and 2.54 marks, respectively. And despite a bump in the road in 1970 where he finished the season with a 3.88 ERA, mostly due to (at the time) a career-low K/9 and a career-high H/9, he bounced back in 1971 at the age of 26 finishing with a 2.75 ERA in 52.1 innings pitched.

Nonetheless, the Red Sox decided to trade Lyle to the Yankees in March before the start of the 1972 campaign in the second- or third-most infamous Boston/New York trade in their long history. He proved to be a brilliant reliever in the Bronx, while the main man they dealt—Danny Cater—was never much better than an adequate first baseman.

In his first season in 1972 as the Yankees’ closer, Lyle pitched in 59 games and saved 35 of them, which was an American League record and a major league record for left-handers. He also became the first lefty to collect 100 saves in the American League. With an ERA of 1.92 in 107.2 innings during his first year in pinstripes, not only did Lyle make a great impression on Yankees fans, but he made an impression on the BBWAA voters as well. He finished seventh in the Cy Young Award voting and third in MVP voting, the highest finish of his career in the latter award category.

In 1973, Lyle’s ERA jumped a bit—not a surprise considering how strong a 1.92 ERA is generally speaking—but it still stayed at a 2.51, and he was awarded his first career All-Star appearance. And in 1974, it was more of the same, as he saw even more appearances (66 to be exact) and was even stronger, finishing the season with a career-best ERA of 1.66, a 215 ERA+. If he hadn’t proven to baseball fans that he was one of, if not the best, closers in the league, he had by this point. The 1975 campaign was one of his two worst seasons in pinstripes, even though a 3.12 ERA was still a 119 ERA+ for the season, but he took a step back to take three big steps forward, with the next three seasons being the best of his career as the Yankees finally surged out of their CBS Era doldrums.

Lyle in 1976 led the league in saves and earned himself a second All-Star appearance for the pennant-winning club, and in 1977, he became the first AL reliever to win the Cy Young Award, along with his third and final All-Star Game appearance and a sixth-place finish in MVP voting. He appeared in 72 games that season and registered 26 saves with only 68 strikeouts, but his 2.17 ERA did all the talking he needed it to do. In 1976, he broke Hoyt Wilhelm’s American League record of 154 career saves.

Not only did Lyle win the Cy Young Award in 1977, but he helped lead the Yankees to their first World Series championship in 15 years. Billy Martin deployed him in 14 innings across six games, and Lyle had a record of 3-0 by the time everything was all said and done Most importantly, he only allowed two earned runs: one against the Kansas City Royals in Game 3 of the ALCS, and the other on a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the World Series. His highlights included saving the pitching staff by hurling 5.1 scoreless innings in ALCS Game 4 against the Royals, which was a must-win game. Had Lyle faltered, Reggie Jackson’s “Mr. October” moment might never have happened.

But despite Lyle’s 1977 Cy Young, the Yankees decided to upgrade the closer position following the season, and it was with one of the players we talked about earlier in the introduction: Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Rich “Goose” Gossage.

According to reports, Lyle was not opposed to the Yankees’ move at the time, but he later admitted that the Yankees front office should have gotten rid of him after they signed Gossage. He didn’t want the reduced role in the bullpen, and even though the Yankees won back-to-back World Series championships (a postseason where 33-year-old Lyle would only pitch one game and give up two earned runs in 1.1 innings pitched) with him on the roster in 1978, Sparky’s days in The Bronx were numbered. In pal Graig Nettles’ words, would go “from Cy Young to Sayonara.”

Lyle and George Steinbrenner could not reach an agreement on a contract, and as a result, Sparky was traded down south to a destination he had been clamoring to go to: the Texas Rangers (coincidentally with a future relief ace acquired in return). However, he was not the same pitcher at the end of his career. After a season and a half with the Rangers, Lyle was moved to the Philadelphia Phillies, where he spent three separate seasons before once again being moved, this time to the Chicago White Sox, who purchased his contract before eventually being released and hanging up his spikes.

Following his MLB career, Lyle published the famous book The Bronx Zoo detailing his time with the Yankees. Through both his amusing anecdotes within (and his many accolades in a Yankees uniform), he is remembered as both one of the best storytellers and relievers to don the pinstripes.

In 1998, 16 years after he retired from professional baseball, Lyle became the inaugural manager of the Somerset Patriots, now the Double-A affiliate of the Yankees, and he got to work. At the helm, he managed the team to three League Championship titles, seven Half Championships, and six South Division Championships. He was the Patriots’ manager until stepping down in 2012. Sparky remains a beloved figure in the organization, as his No. 28 is the only non-Jackie Robinson rumber to be retired by Somerset, and their mascot is named for him as well.

Happy 82nd birthday, Sparky! Hope you can sit on a birthday cake again today, for old times’ sake.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Back in January, Paul Toboni made his biggest move of his young Nats tenure, trading MacKenzie Gore to the Texas Rangers in exchange for 5 prospects, none on top 100 lists, but all with their own unique traits. Six months later, let’s check in on how the trade is working out for both the Rangers and Nats.

Starting with Gore, both his expected and actual numbers have taken a hit in his first season with the Rangers, as his ERA has jumped from 4.17 to 4.80, and his FIP from 3.74 to 3.82. As has often been the case with Gore, he is generating plenty of swing and miss and has the occasional start where he dazzles, but too often, he loses command of the zone and gives up loud contact, resulting in outings where he is shelled and pulled early. Of his 21 starts this season, he has allowed 4 or more runs seven times.

Gore’s expected numbers are better than his actual numbers currently, suggesting he should improve in the long run, but this is also the third straight season where Gore’s FIP has been much better than his ERA. FIP also does not account for all the loud contact Gore gives up that does not leave the yard, reflected in his 14th percentile hard hit rate. Many wondered if Gore would put it all together upon leaving the Nationals organization, but so far in Texas, it’s been the same story that Nats fans became familiar with for Gore.

As for the return package the Nationals got for Gore this winter, the headliner of the deal was Gavin Fien, an infield prospect who was selected 13th overall in the 2025 MLB Draft. Fien has actually not played any infield this season, becoming a center fielder primarily.

Fien got off to a slow start in the Nats organization, but has been one of the better bats in the system recently, with a 124 wRC+ since June 1st. As it stands, Fien likely profiles in a corner outfield spot more long-term, and his hit tool appears to be about average, with solid raw power and a strong ability to hit fly balls to his pull side. Fien doesn’t quite look like he’ll be a franchise cornerstone for the Nats, but he could be a solid corner outfielder in the bigs one day.

The prospect who has been the most discussed from the Gore trade this season has been Devin Fitz-Gerald, who started the season off in High A, despite never going above Low A in the Rangers organization. Fitz-Gerald lit up High A pitching, with a 132 wRC+ in 51 games, but his offensive success has come to a screeching halt in Double A, with a 28 wRC+ in 30 games, and just 1 home run compared to 12 in High A. Still just 20 years old, I’m not letting Fitz-Gerald’s recent struggles deter me too much from his long-term projection as a pure hitting second baseman.

The first prospect in the Gore return to make the big leagues was Abimelec Ortiz, who got one start right before the All-Star Break, where he smoked a double in his second big league at bat, before being returned to Triple-A. Ortiz has been as advertised so far for the Nats in the minors, a first baseman with plus raw power and the ability to tap into it, posting a 117 wRC+ and hitting 17 home runs in 74 games. He may be in line for regular big league at-bats the rest of the season if Luis Garcia Jr. is indeed traded.

Yeremy Cabera was one of the more underrated names in the Gore return package, but he announced himself loudly upon his Nats organization debut, with a 186 wRC+ in 30 games at Low A. He earned a callup to High A, but he has struggled since his callup, with a 58 wRC+ in 49 games there. He had some swing-and-miss concerns even when he was dominating Low A, and those have unfortunately followed him to the High A level. Cabrera has the traits to be a big league center fielder one day, but he’ll need to make enough contact to make it there.

The most mysterious prospect in the Gore return is Alejandro Rosario, a right-handed pitcher who missed most of 2025 with an arm injury, yet did not get the required Tommy John Surgery until just a few months ago. It’s unknown what took Rosario so long to finally go under the knife; if he had gone through with it last season when he was injured, he may have already been back. Nevertheless, he should return to the mound in 2027, where, if he is as sharp as he was pre-injury, he could turn out to be a steal for the Nats.

It’s far too early to declare a winner and loser of the MacKenzie Gore trade, as it’ll take years for the prospects received’s careers to play out. What we can note, however, is Gore has not had the breakout some expected upon leaving the Nats, and the Nats added 5 prospects who broke their top 30 prospects on most publications, with 1 already making a big league impact, and one cracking many top 100 prospect lists. I expect it is a deal the Nationals would do over everytime, and one the Rangers may want back.

If you watched the end of Tuesday night’s 2-1 Phillies loss to the Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park, you likely woke up this morning asking the same question you were left with in the aftermath of J.T. Realmuto’s baserunning blunder.

“What on earth was he thinking?”

In case you missed Tuesday night’s gaffe, the Phils were mounting a 9th inning comeback. Justin Crawford was on third base and Realmuto was on second. There was one out in the inning with Brandon Marsh at the plate.

Marsh cued a ball down the third base line which was fielded by Max Muncy. Crawford hesitatingly took off for home, which manager Don Mattingly said was due to Crawford running on contact. However, one should not absolve Crawford of blame because, following the game, he admitted he was told to run on contact if the ball was hit to anywhere except third base. Crawford should have retreated to the bag, leaving runners and second and third with two outs. Once he took off for home, it was inevitable he would be tagged out.

His only choice was to try and stay in a rundown long enough for Realmuto to take his place at third base and for Marsh to try and get to second. That would have given the Phillies 2nd and 3rd with two outs.

Again, not ideal, but still breathing.

Then, with Realmuto standing on third, he suddenly bolts for second base, moving backwards 90 feet. As Crawford was being chased back to third, Realmuto should have just stood his ground and waited for Crawford to occupy the same base as him, rendering Crawford out.

Watching Marsh, it appeared he ran through the bag at first and didn’t make an immediate move to second. In all likelihood, the Phils were looking at first and third with two out.

That is, until Realmuto was tagged out at second.

After the game, the Phils’ veteran catcher admitted he goofed (quotes via MLB.com).

“Just a bad baserunning play, really,” Realmuto said. “We were going on seeing it through there, and once Craw gets in the rundown and I’m on third base, there’s no reason for me to go back to second. Just a lack of judgment. You can’t make two outs on that play. I’ve just to stay in scoring position.

“Just a lapse in judgment. I thought Crawford could get out of the rundown for some reason. The chances of that are so small, you just can’t take that chance there of making two outs on one play.”

In Realmuto’s mind, he thought Crawford could wriggle himself out of his pickle and that, by running back to second, he was giving the rookie outfielder a chance to do that.

This is J.T.’s 13th year in the Majors. He has played in 1,446 Major League Baseball games and hundreds of other games through little league, high school and the minors. He has likely never, in his entire baseball career, seen a player get out of a rundown situation like the one Crawford was in, let alone in the Majors.

And yet, he ran.

Without making excuses for Realmuto, what happened to him has happened to all of us in various scenarios during our lives.

Sometimes, our brains just break.

Most of the time, it’s only for a moment or two. We do something so dumb, so stupid, so against our character, that it’s impossible to explain why we did it after the fact. Our logic, sped up in the moment to a level that triggers a kind of temporary insanity, compels us to do something we know to be dumb, harmful or chaotic.

If you were to put Realmuto in that same spot another 100 times, he likely remains cemented to the third base bag every single time.

And according to the advanced metrics, the Phillies’ baserunning has improved this year. Fangraphs has the Phils with the 4th-most baserunning runs above average this season.

Tuesday night’s blunder calls back to last year’s 9th inning meltdown against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS where, after Nick Castellanos two-run double drew the Phils to within 4-3, putting a runner on second with nobody out.

The decision for Stott to bunt and get Castellanos tagged out at third for the first out of the inning sabotaged a late Phils’ rally in Game 2.

Tuesday night’s ridiculousness did not have the same stakes, but it did harken back to last October’s brain fart. In this case, Realmuto’s brain simply ran away from him, and a potential Phillies victory along with it.

One the Dodgers were only too happy to accept.

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With 17 games packed into Wednesday’s marathon MLB schedule—thanks to a pair of traditional doubleheaders in the Bronx and Boston—bettors are treated to an all-day smorgasbord of moneyline value.

From early-afternoon matinees to high-stakes evening doubleheaders, today's massive card presents no shortage of prime spots to target straight-up winners.

Here are my MLB moneyline predictions as wedive into the full slate with my MLB picks on Wednesday, July 22.

MLB moneyline picks for July 22

Matchup	Pick
Pirates vs Yankees	-160
Mets vs Brewers	-135
Giants vs Royals	-111
Nationals vs Rockies	-127
Athletics vs Diamondbacks	+106
Reds vs Mariners	+141
Cardinals vs Angels	+108
Dodgers vs Phillies	-111
Twins vs Guardians	-117
Pirates vs Yankees	-153
Rays vs Blue Jays	+102
Orioles vs Red Sox	-130
Padres vs Braves	+108
White Sox vs Rangers	-102
Tigers vs Cubs	+108
Marlins vs Astros	-108

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of July 22.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 22

Pirates vs Yankees: Yankees (-160)

Yankees win probability: 62%

Despite Gerrit Cole allowing plenty of hard contact over his last few outings, he is still maintaining a 1.04 WHIP and 3.22 xERA. Meanwhile, Pirates right hander Mitch Keller has posted a 5.45 xERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last five starts, while allowing a 50% hard hit rate and a 10.47% barrel rate.

The Yankees offense is slowly coming back to life, generating nearly a 50% hard hit rate and an 8.7% barrel rate over its last six games.

I lean with the Yankees here.

Mets vs Brewers: Brewers (-135)

Brewers win probability: 57%

Over the last week, the Mets' offense has posted an 81 wRC+, .283 wOBA, and .621 OPS, while the Brewers have generated a 109 wRC+, .329 wOBA, and .732 OPS.

With how strong the pitching matchup is this afternoon, I think backing the hotter offense is the right move.

Giants vs Royals: Giants (-111)

Giants win probability: 52%

With Royals right hander Seth Lugo posting a 6.75 ERA, 5.48 xERA, and 1.62 WHIP over his last five starts, I am leaning heavily toward the Giants here. Sure, their offense has been a tad cold over the last week, but bad pitching has a way of getting an offense back on track.

Nationals vs Rockies: Nationals (-127)

Nationals win probability: 56%

Would you rather back the offense with a 147 wRC+, .380 wOBA, and .873 OPS over its last six games, or the one with a 73 wRC+, .291 wOBA, and .658 OPS?

Yeah, same.

Nationals.

Athletics vs Diamondbacks: Athletics (+106)

Athletics win probability: 48%

Death. Taxes. Fade Merrill Kelly.

Arizona's right hander has been brutal all season, and his expected numbers suggest he should be even worse. Over his last five starts, he owns a 6.36 xERA and a 1.45 WHIP, while allowing a 48% hard hit rate and a 12% barrel rate.

The Athletics offense has been turning it around, posting a 126 wRC+, .351 wOBA, and .794 OPS over the last week.

Reds vs Mariners: Reds (+141)

Reds win probability: 42%

Similar to most of my reads, I am not backing a frozen offense. Seattle has posted a wRC+ under 100 for more than a month, while the Reds own a 119 wRC+, .347 wOBA, and .224 ISO over their last 12 games.

I want the team that is playing its best baseball and at +141 is a great price to back the hotter team.

Reds.

Cardinals vs Angels: Cardinals (+108)

Cardinals win probability: 48%

Take the underdog for the value here. Both offenses are frozen, and both starting pitchers have been brutal.

I am not paying juice in this spot.

Give me the Cardinals.

Dodgers vs Phillies: Dodgers (-111)

Dodgers win probability: 52%

You think I am going to back Aaron Nola? Please.

Eric Lauer has been solid for the Dodgers over his last five outings, and with how bad Nola has been this season, I think the Los Angeles offense can get after him early and often.

Twins vs Guardians: Guardians (-117)

Guardians win probability: 54%

Neither Bailey Ober nor Slade Cecconi has been at his best over the last few starts, but Ober has been especially rough, posting a 6.00 ERA, 5.12 xERA, and 1.60 WHIP over his last five outings.

Meanwhile, the Guardians offense has finally awakened, posting a 148 wRC+, .381 wOBA, and .204 ISO over its last six games.

I like the Guardians here.

Pirates vs Yankees: Yankees (-153)

Yankees win probability: 60%

"But I always look to fade the winner of Game 1 of a doubleheader."

Cool. Anyway...

The Pirates turn to Bubba Chandler in Game 2. The right hander owns a 6.60 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, and he has been allowing a ton of hard hit balls over his last three starts.

With the Yankees finally starting to find their stride, getting back to back matchups against pitchers who give up plenty of hard contact should play right into their hands.

Rays vs Blue Jays: Rays (+102)

Rays win probability: 50%

We are getting the Rays as underdogs against the most lifeless team in baseball? Yes, please!

For those unaware, the Blue Jays own a 68 wRC+, .267 wOBA, and .595 OPS over their last 21 games.

This is not the 2025 team. This team has no life.

Orioles vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-130)

Red Sox win probability: 56%

If it is Ranger Suárez, I want to back the Red Sox.

The Orioles have struggled a ton against left handed pitchers, and I think Suárez can make a dominant return against this offense.

Plus, who does not want to see this winning streak continue?

Padres vs Braves: Padres (+108)

Padres win probability: 48%

The Padres are heating up, and Martin Perez has posted a 7.43 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Michael King has been holding it down over his last five starts.

Give me the Padres to feast this evening.

White Sox vs Rangers: White Sox (-102)

White Sox win probability: 50%

Bounce back central, USA.

The White Sox will get their get right win and secure the series against Cal Quantrill this evening. The Rangers starter owns a 5.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and a sub 9% strikeout rate over his last three starts.

On the other end, Anthony Kay has been turning things around, and I expect him to hold down the fort for the White Sox offense.

Tigers vs Cubs: Tigers (+108)

Tigers win probability: 48%

Yes, give me the Tigers as an underdog against Colin Rea, who owns a 4.41 ERA, 4.87 xERA, and 1.47 WHIP over his last three starts.

With the Cubs scoring 11 runs last night, I expect some regression from their offense.

Give me the Tigers as an underdog.

Marlins vs Astros: Astros (-108)

Astros win probability: 52%

With the Marlins' ice cold offense and the Astros heating up, I have to take the hometown favorite here.

Plus, Peter Lambert has been nails over his last five starts, posting a 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

I expect the Astros to get the job done this evening.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The injuries have piled up for the Royals this year, and now they’ve affected their best player.

Bobby Witt Jr. was placed on the Injured List for the first time in his career on Wednesday, after missing the last two games with lower back tightness. The Royals selected infielder Andrew Velazquez from Triple-A Omaha and placed pitcher Stephen Kolek on the 60-day Injured List to make room on the 40-man roster.

Witt was playing like an MVP candidate for most of the year, hitting .279/.350/.450 with 13 home runs and a league-high 30 steals. He led the American League with 4.9 rWAR, and lead all defensive players in Outs Above Average at +19. Recently, he made his first-ever start in the All-Star Game, drawing a walk and scoring a run. Witt has played in at last 150 games in each of his first four seasons, and missed just five games last year. He missed six games earlier this year with a knee injury, but avoided the Injured List.

The Royals signed Velazquez to a minor league contract last month. The 32-year-old has played in parts of six MLB seasons with the Rays, Guardians, Orioles, Yankees, and Angels, hitting .189/.244/.293 in 275 games. He last played in the big leagues in 2023, appearing in 54 games with the Angels. He began this year in the Diamondbacks organization, and was hitting .259/.328/.315 in 18 games with Omaha. Velazquez is a switch-hitter who has played who has played ever position except first and catcher.

Kolek was on a rehab stint with Omaha to ramp him back up after he missed time on a family emergency, but suffered forearm tightness in his start at Triple-A on July 18. The Royals will get a second opinion on his injury, as forearm tightness is commonly associated with elbow injuries that require Tommy John surgery.

This past weekend was the celebration of the 2016 championship Cubs on their 10-year reunion. The various gatherings and events brought back a lot of nostalgia. Tuesday night’s Cub win also brought back some of that nostalgia. This was the blueprint of so much of that season. Jump all over the other team early and cruise to victory. Once Cub starter David Peterson was lifted from the game, there were just two more plays that registered any WPA. Aaron Civale allowed a single to the first batter he faced (-.001) and retired the second (.001). Each team had two turns at the plate, but neither dented WPA after that. 31 of the 86 plays in this game registered .000.

Perspective check: Four teams have more wins than the Cubs. The Cubs have solo possession of the first Wild Card position in the NL. The Cubs are on pace to win 91.4 games. They continue to have that tight projection in the 90-92 range. Overall, I think that range is probably something like 88-94, allowing for swings in either direction. As I keep saying, starting Friday, there is a significant test coming. The team has played well for over a month now. Hopefully, there is something they can take from that and bring forth into this stretch.

Ironically, the Cubs won this one the way they lost the one before. Granted, it was a much longer duration. But the Cubs weren’t particularly crushing Framber Valdez. But, they were patient, took what was given to them, got a couple of good breaks and poured it on, knocking Valdez out with more than 40 pitches thrown and only two outs recorded. That was the first time Valdez failed to survive the first inning since July 11, 2019 when he allowed four runs on four hits and three walks. This was only his second-ever start, in 185 total starts, where he didn’t throw at least three innings.

When it gets this lopsided this quickly, you end up with silly baseball. The Cubs faced two innings of position player pitching that accounted for three hits, four walks and two runs. So in the six innings against guys who get paid to pitch, the team had eight hits, seven walks, two hit batters and nine runs. Nine different Cubs had hits, six different Cubs drew walks, nine different Cubs scored runs, seven different Cubs had RBI’s. So it was a really balanced attack for the Cubs.

Leading the way was Pete Crow-Armstrong who started the game with a triple, walked later in the inning and ended up with two hits and three walks. That’s one very odd full house. He drove in two and scored a run. The Cubs only had one double, one triple and one homer. They stole one base. So this attack was death by a thousand paper cuts for the Tigers.

David Peterson threw a couple of pitches were crushed, but I do at least want to nod to pitching to the conditions with a huge lead and the wind howling in. On paper, Peterson’s results were terrific. He allowed three hits and a walk over 6.2 innings. He was so effective that the Cubs had a second straight day of coming up short on an odd stat. On Monday, the Cubs fell short of a potential 11th walk-off. On Tuesday, Aaron Civale was two outs short of becoming the 11th Cub to record a save. The three-inning save has been one of the more available vectors for the pitching staff to record saves.

This was definitely one of those wins that you hope you can carry some of that offense forward to Wednesday. It would be really nice to notch another series win before that 17-game gauntlet starts. There are definitely going to be some series losses in there. So you just want to bank as much as you can. With any luck, the team will see reinforcements from multiple directions during that gauntlet. They should have some of their own guys getting healthy and they should also trade for some live arms from other teams.

Keep marching on.

Three Positives and Pete:

• David Peterson gets the top spot with 6.2 scoreless innings.
• Dansby Swanson had two singles, drew a walk and scored three runs.
• Ian Happ had a single, drew a walk and was hit by a pitch. He drove in a run and scored another.
• Pete’s appearance here is more than obligatory. He was the star offensively, reaching base five times. Forget any mention of the word slump. As great a season as he is having, Pete added four points to his batting average, seven to his on base, and eight to his slugging percentage. The net result was four points on his wRC+. Always unbelievable.

Game 101, July 21: Cubs 11, Tigers 2 (57-44)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.146). 2-2, 3B, 3 BB, 2 RBI, R
• Hero: Carson Kelly (.121). 1-3, 2 BB, 2 RBI, R
• Sidekick: David Peterson (.110). 6.2 IP, 24 BF, 3 H, BB, 0 R, 4 K (W 2-1)

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Kevin Alcantara (-.035). 0-2
• Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.013). 2-3, BB, 3 R, SB
• Kid: Justin Dean (.000). 0-1

WPA Note: Dean, Pedro Ramirez and Aaron Civale all registered .000 WPA. Of the three, Dean’s was the most “negative” outcome of the three. While Civale allowed two runs, his job was clearly to eat outs and he did that. Obviously, Dean’s job was largely to give PCA a few innings off. But in these spots, I will make a choice for the last spot.

WPA Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s two-run single in the first, driving in the first two runs. (.116)

Tigers Play of the Game: Framber Valdez’ strike out of Kevin Alcantara for the second out in the first inning. (.028)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 100 Winner: Ian Happ 38 of 55 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
• Carson Kelly +17.5
• Michael Busch +16
• Ben Brown/Alex Bregman +13.5
• Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -10
• Nico Hoerner -11
• Caleb Thielbar -14
• Dansby Swanson -16

Up Next: The third and final game of the series between the Tigers and Cubs. Colin Rea (7-6, 4.74) starts for the Cubs. Rea is just 2-3 with a 5.00 over his last seven appearances (36 IP). He does have two wins and a quality start over his last three starts. The Tigers start Keider Montero (6-5, 3.22). The 26-year-old Venezuelan hasn’t started a game since June 26. In five July appearances, he is 2-0 with a 2.08 (13 IP). His high pitch count in there is 58. He only threw 43 in his last one. That may help explain the Tigers going to position players for the final two innings. Montero feels unlikely to get deep in this one. Even when he was starting, he topped out at 96 pitches. Last June, the Cubs scored four runs in 5.2 against him. The four runs were four solo homers (Suzuki, Busch, Crow-Armstrong and Shaw).

Unlikely to be easy but go win a series.

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It might have taken until the 25th hour last night, but Jacob Wilson delivered my longest home run prop of the year at +1140, and let's hope it's the start of a home-run heater. Let's cash some MLB player props.

Fading Dean Kremer has to be on the card, and Masataka Yoshida is the left-handed bat I want, while Aaron Nola has been serving up long balls all year and nobody has seen him more than Freddie Freeman. 

Finally, how can we leave Jacob Wilson off the card after last night, and at a better price, today? Spoiler: We can't.

These are my favorite home run predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 22. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Masataka Yoshida	+1000
Freddie Freeman	+406
Jacob Wilson	+1180
💲Today's HR parlay	+48476

Home run pick: Masataka Yoshida (+1000)

After backing Jacob Wilson at +1140, I'm like a vampire with a thirst for 10/1 home runs or better, and Dean Kremer at Fenway with the wind blowing out is my next target. I'm playing this down to +750 in the first game of a doubleheader, where Kremer could be asked to eat innings.

Kremer currently owns the worst HR/FB rate among qualified MLB starters and the third-worst HR/9. He's already surrendered nine home runs in just 26 innings, with left-handed hitters doing most of the damage.

Masataka Yoshida is one of only two Red Sox with an OPS north of 1.000 over the last 30 days and ranks near the top of the club in most offensive categories. He isn't known as a prolific home run hitter, but he's in the middle of a nice power surge with two homers and a .351 average over his last 10 games.

The matchup and the setting are there today to take a shot at a massive price. There is only one lefty arm in the Orioles pen today, as well. 

• Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, MASN

Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+406)

Citizens Bank Park still ranks as the No. 2 home run park on today's slate, according to Ballpark Pal, despite a slight wind blowing in.

That's great news for the Dodgers' bats against Aaron Nola, who has been one of the more home run-prone pitchers in baseball this season. He served up three homers in his last start on the 16th and has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last seven outings. It's a dinger upgrade across the Dodgers' lineup, and Nola doesn't discriminate, giving them up to both lefties and righties.

Only Tommy Edman owns a better OPS than Freddie Freeman over the last 30 days in the Dodgers' clubhouse, and Freeman has plenty of history against Nola with 76 career at-bats. Nola has gotten the better of him over the years with a .237 average and just two home runs allowed, but this version of the Phillies' right-hander is the most vulnerable Freeman has ever faced.

Almost the entire Dodgers lineup projects as +EV to go deep today, but Freeman at +370 or better is where I'm landing. It also helps that the Phillies have just one available lefty in the bullpen.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, SportsNet LA

Home run pick: Jacob Wilson (+1180)

How about some damn respect for Jacob Wilson, who has gone deep three times over his last four games and cashed a monster ticket last night at +1140. The Athletics' leadoff man has seen at least five plate appearances in each game during this heater and is riding a nine-game hitting streak, batting .421 with a .721 slugging percentage and six multi-hit performances.

The matchup is in his favor again today against Merrill Kelly, who has been one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball this season. Kelly owns the worst BlastContact% of any starter on today's slate and ranks among the bottom 50 in both HR/FB and HR/9. He has also been far more vulnerable at home, posting a 6.69 ERA compared to a 4.28 mark on the road. Since the start of 2024, his HR/9 is also 0.4 higher at home.

I'm riding the Wilson train until this price drops. I'd play this dinger down to +800 today.

• Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Diamondbacks.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Masataka Yoshida	Bet Now +48476
Freddie Freeman
Jacob Wilson

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