Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Padres play a three-game series in San Diego starting on Monday at 9:40 p.m.
5 things to watch
Trade deadline watch
David Stearns likely already has a strong sense about how and where he’d like to find upgrades by Thursday’s 6 p.m. trade deadline. Still, it’s possible he could be influenced in these next few days, especially if Ronny Mauricio continues to swing a hot bat and Francisco Alvarez continues to look more confident/patient at the plate since his return from the minors last week.
The Mets need another reliever, an upgrade in center field, and they could use another starting pitcher. But do they need another impact bat? If so an obvious candidate would be Arizona Diamondbacks’ third baseman Eugenio Suarez, but to make such a move, the Mets would likely be trading from their surplus of young infielders, Mauricio, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Luisangel Acuña.
The young guys have made the lower part of the lineup more dangerous lately, but will the Mets continue to be haunted by their season-long struggles with runners in scoring position? That’s perhaps the most pressing question for Stearns to answer as the deadline nears.
Heat check
The Mets have won seven straight games, including sweeps of the Los Angeles Angels at Citi Field and the Giants in San Francisco this past weekend. As such, they’ve re-taken first place in the NL East by 1 ½ games over the Philadelphia Phillies and pushed their record to 62-44.
Can they stay hot against one of the best home-field teams in the majors? The Padres are 57-49 overall, but they’ve played their best at Petco Park in San Diego, where they’re 31-18 and have won a lot of close games by leaning on one of the top bullpens in the majors.
The Mets’ winning streak has been built mostly on strong pitching, as they’ve allowed a total of 14 runs. In only one of the seven wins have they allowed more than three runs.
Alvarez reborn?
So far, the success Alvarez had during his Triple-A demotion seems to have translated nicely since his return to the Mets a week ago.
Alvarez has looked like a more confident hitter, showing patience by chasing less and making hard contact on pitches in the strike zone.
As a result, in five games, the young catcher is hitting .353 (6-for-17) with three extra-base hits, including a home run, to go with three walks. On Sunday, he had a double and a single and scored two runs.
He’s also looked better blocking balls in the dirt, after poor defensive mechanics contributed to the reason the Mets sent him to the minors.
Bullpen reinforcements
With the recent return of Brooks Raley and Friday’s trade for Gregory Soto, the Mets suddenly have two dependable left-handed relievers, which dramatically changes the look and depth of their bullpen.
Soto showed the impact he could have in his Mets’ debut Sunday in San Francisco, pitching a 1-2-3 seventh inning that saw him win a 10-pitch battle with Rafael Devers, exactly the type of quality lefty hitter they need him for, finally overpowering him inside with a 97 mph fastball that produced a weak comebacker to the mound.
If the Mets add another reliever at the trade deadline, which seems likely, and have a slider specialist, Nolan McLean, one of their top starting prospects, for potential bullpen use at some point, they could have a powerhouse pen the rest of the way.
Puzzing Padres
Since getting off to a hot start, winning their first seven games of the season and posting a 14-3 record by April 14, the Padres have played below-.500 baseball. They’re 43-46 since then, despite a lot of star power on both the pitching and hitting fronts.
Most noticeably, despite the presence of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the lineup, they don’t have much punch offensively. They rank 25th in MLB in runs scored, and they’ve hit only 89 home runs, a total that ranks 29th in MLB, ahead of only the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Padres’ starting pitching has been so-so this season, ranking 15th in MLB with a 3.99 ERA, in part because Michael King has been out since May with a shoulder injury. He is reportedly making progress toward a return but won’t be back for this series. And Dylan Cease hasn’t pitched to expectations, to the point where the Padres reportedly are considering trading him at the deadline.
San Diego does have one of the top bullpens in baseball. Anchored by closer Robert Suarez, the Padres’ pen ranks first in MLB with a 3.04 ERA, and opponents are hitting .218 against them, tied for best in MLB with the Houston Astros.
Predictions
Who will the MVP of the series be?
He’s coming off a spectacular 4-for-4 game in San Fran that included a McCovey Cove homer, and Mauricio tends to be streaky with the bat, so he could have a hot series.
Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?
Sean Manaea
The left-hander seems to be rounding into form after the oblique injury. Manaea got up to 82 pitches in his most recent start, his third since coming back, and dominated the Los Angeles Angels over 5 innings.
Which Padres player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?
Jose Iglesias
The OMG guy isn’t having nearly the success he had with the Mets in 2024, but he was stung when they didn’t want him back and would love a little revenge.