Category: Baseball

One element that makes the Detroit Tigers a lot more formidable than they were last year is the presence of near major league ready positional prospects. Last season they didn’t really have a prospect push to buoy them throughout the season, particularly in terms of hitters. One of their top hopes for depth in the infield this season is Max Anderson. After a breakout 2025 season at the Double-A level, he’s had a nice spring camp and looks the part of a quality hitting prospect who isn’t too far from contributing to the Tigers’ efforts this season.

The 24-year-old right-handed hitter was the Tigers’ second rounder in the 2023 draft, selected right after they picked Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle with their first selections. The Tigers paid Anderson a hair less than $1.5 million to sign out of Nebraska, which saved them around $470K in signing bonus. Even better, it appears they got that pick correct.

Anderson doesn’t offer much in the way of athleticism, and is best suited to second base, but he can really hit. He raked in college, and he’s continued to be a high average, low strikeout hitter in the minor leagues. A second baseman by trade, Anderson has continued to improve his glove, footwork, and throwing during his time with the Tigers. The element that continues to hold him back is his lack of footspeed and range. Still, that’s not too dissimilar from Gleyber Torres’ defensive profile. So as long as Anderson hits, the Tigers will find a way to use him, whether at third base, first base, or at second in case of a Torres injury.

The knock on this profile is that while Anderson has plenty of juice and has popped numerous balls with plus exit velocities in his time in the minor leagues, he didn’t really hit for that much game power in his 2024 full season debut in A-ball. A free-swinger, hitting from a pretty deep crouch and without the flexibility to create good bat angles on pitches to all parts of the zone, Anderson has a tendency to let his hands do most of the work at the plate. To unlock his power potential, he needed to work on pulling more balls in the air, but he also needed to be a lot more selective in terms of what he’s swinging at as well, trying to get more pitches he can drive rather than just chasing off the plate on pitches he can slap the other way. In 2025, he made some strides in that direction.

In 405 plate appearances for the Double-A Erie SeaWolves, Anderson launched 14 home runs and hit .306/.358/.499. He struck out just 14.6 percent of the time, with a decent 6.9 percent walk rate as well. He moved up to Triple-A Toledo late in the season, and while his strikeouts spiked somewhat, he held his own, and added another five homers in 32 games to reach 19 long balls on the year. You couldn’t ask for too much more overall, though his numbers against left-handers were far better than his solid but modest .767 OPS against right-handed pitching. It also didn’t hurt that as predicted, Anderson and Kevin McGonigle faced much weaker pitching in the Arizona Fall League than they were used to seeing, and absolutely tore the place apart.

Anderson still hits the ball on the ground too much, but he improved in that regard compared to his 2024 debut and he also started pulling more balls to left field. He continues to show his plus hand-eye coordination in routinely getting the barrel on the ball, even on pitches where he was initially fooled. He didn’t abandon his crouch as some thought he might, but he did moderate it a bit, helping him to be more mobile in the box to catch balls out front, as opposed to letting everything travel deep with a heavy bias to the opposite field the way he did in his first pro season. Even better he did it without striking out any more, and even his late season run in Toledo showed a better than league average strikeout rate complete with sustained home run power.

It’s only 32 plate appearances of spring training work, but so far Anderson has held his own in spring camp. The stocky infielder is not going to get faster, but he’s otherwise continued to refine his defensive game and looks playable at both second and third base. We haven’t seen him cut down on the chase yet, but by hunting more pitches he can pull and drive early in counts, and then trusting his strong pure hitting ability deeper into an at-bat, he looks more and more like he’ll be a solid major league hitter who hits left-handers well in particular.

The final step for Max Anderson this season is to consolidate his gains and keep working on his zone discipline. Currently he isn’t on the 40-man roster, though he’ll be Rule 5 eligible next fall, and the Tigers don’t have an opening for him at second or third base. However, if this were a lower tier MLB roster Anderson would probably be going north with the team or looking at a debut in the spring. His more refined defensive game this spring has been a nice upgrade for him as well, and it’s worth mentioning that he also looks like a fairly attractive trade piece this season if required.

There’s a lot of pressure on Anderson to hit and to hit for solid power. He isn’t going to provide much value defensively or on the bases. However, he has cleaned up his all around game even more this offseason, and he shows a lot of signs that the bat will play enough to find at least a part-time role in the years ahead.

The Tigers have kept him in major league camp much of the spring, and it’s notable that he’s not on the Spring Breakout roster and seems likely to travel to Colorado for the club’s final two exhibition games of the spring calendar. He’ll head to Toledo beyond that, but on a team with a heavily left-handed infield group beyond 2026, there will be opportunities for a regular role as a lefty mashing infielder with a little positional versatility. A significant injury around the infield could open up a spot for him to make his debut this year. If not, one would expect that the Tigers will get him at least a look at the show sometime this summer when an opportunity comes along.

A couple of weeks ago, I introduced a new mini-series in which I examined a few players on the edge of the roster. These are guys who could fundamentally change the trajectory of this franchise if, improbably, they reach their full ceilings and become reliable, productive contributors to a good team. First, I profiled Brooks Baldwin and what his quiet surge in the second half of last year might mean. Next up is Jonathan Cannon, who remains on the outside looking in for a rotation spot after failing to solidify his future there last summer.

It’s as simple as this: Cannon’s pitch mix was and remains fascinating. It moves all over the place, and when things are going right, it’s the kind of stuff that makes you wonder how a hitter ever finds a barrel.

Through his first few outings in Arizona, he’s still tinkering with that mix. It appears he’s added yet another type of breaking ball to his arsenal, testing a new slider that could slot in neatly as a bridge between his cutter and his sweeper.

More slider shapes from Cannon. One true sweeper. Three others that verge on cutters/sliders. https://t.co/D3gmgg1Easpic.twitter.com/UERbSVsW1y

— Sean Anderson (@Sean_W_Anderson) March 2, 2026

Just as a reminder, here’s what Cannon can already do on the occasion where he has everything going for him. His very first MLB win was a near-complete game gem against a Houston Astros team.

Cannon has a major problem, though, one that FanGraphs prospect writer Eric Longenhagen identified back before the 2024 season and remains true to this day: platoon splits. His sinker-sweeper combination can be hell for righties when he’s locating them, but his command isn’t good enough to prevent him from leaving the sinker up in the zone to lefties, where it’s gotten absolutely pummeled. With a relatively low arm slot and long-armed delivery, lefties are simply going to see fastballs better, and Cannon’s cutter hasn’t been significantly more effective, even though he favors them over the sinker to southpaws. Strangely, his most effective fastball, the four-seamer, is the one he’s used the least. This chart of his arm angle and pitch movement from 2025 clarifies things a little.

When it comes to fastball movement, if the pitch is fully in line with the pitcher’s arm angle, as Cannon’s almost is, it’s a lot easier for the hitter to track because the ball follows the path that the eye is expecting based on the arm angle and release point. A good sinker is going to drop substantially below the pitcher’s arm slot, and a solid four-seamer is going to have rise that’s significantly up and to the left of the arm. With that in mind, the difference in effectiveness between his sinker and less-used four-seamer makes more sense. We’ll see if this new slider, and perhaps an uptick in four-seam usage, can give him more of a chance against opposite-handed hitters. His sweeper is already deadly to right-handed hitters, and the changeup he’s introduced since his prospect days has solid potential as a change-of-pace pitch to mess with hitters’ timing.

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With Erick Fedde signed to a major league deal and officially now slotted into the final rotation spot, Cannon appeared bound for Charlotte. Now, though, with Mike Vasil sadly out of the picture until mid-2027 with Tommy John surgery, there’s a long relief spot in the bullpen for which Cannon makes a fascinating fit. I hadn’t considered it before, but this could be where Cannon cements himself as a roster mainstay — even if the odds once seemed slim.

However, there are arguments against it. For one, and this is pretty wild, Cannon also has a weird split where hitters have done more damage the first time through the order than the second time through. An .877 OPS his first time through the lineup, an even .800 the second in a roughly equal number of plate appearances for his two-year career. It gives me pause as to whether he’s truly suited for multi-inning, one-time-through-the-order relief.

That being said, a deeper look at the splits says that it’s almost all luck. There’s virtually no substantial change in how batters have hit the ball, but an unlucky 65% strand rate the first time through and an unsustainably high 81% strand rate the second time suggest it might not hold up long term. There’s also the fact that pitchers usually change up their pitch mix the second time they see a hitter, and it may be that the pitch mix Cannon uses then is actually more effective than what we’d consider his primary arsenal.

I’ve discovered a hole in Baseball Savant and FanGraphs in which it’s impossible to see changes in pitch usage based on time through the order, so I can’t say for sure. If it’s the case, relating to a point you’ll see in a few moments, a move to a long relief role could let him figure out exactly which of his multiple approaches really works the best.

Finally, there’s the argument that if the potential to be elite is there, it’s better to have him slightly less stretched out in the big leagues than being a normal starter in the minors. Charlotte’s rotation is absolutely loaded between Noah Schultz, Tanner McDougal, and a revived Hagen Smith. While the big league rotation of Shane Smith, Davis Martin, and Sean Burke all finished between 135 and 146 innings pitched last year and will look to jump into the 160+ range this year. But it’s unlikely that they all get there. If all three of Schultz, McDougal, and Smith get it rolling in Charlotte at the same time, the future of the Sox rotation will be as bright as a star. But it probably won’t happen, and if they can get Cannon rolling as a long reliever in the majors, he’ll be extremely valuable as a seventh or eighth starter, so to speak, given that it’s hard to see more than three of those top six pitchers breaking the 150-inning threshold.

Only working through the order once has benefits beyond the standard general penalty, as a hitter sees a pitcher for the second time. There’s the classic velocity bump from working with shorter spurts. The four-seamer has potential, and a jump from the 94 mph range to the 96 mph range would make his already-intriguing four-seamer a lot more interesting. There’s also a lesser-considered side effect to this kind of change. Part of the game-within-the-game of being a starting pitcher is that it’s an extended battle with the opposing lineup. The way a starter pitches to a hitter always accounts for the fact that, in all likelihood, the hitter has either seen the pitcher’s arsenal already or is going to see it again in a couple of innings, or with the resolute knowledge that they aren’t going to see it again.

None of this is the case for a relief pitcher, and the result is that being asked to work in shorter stints allows a pitcher to hone in on what they do best. As a reliever, there’s no reason not to show your best stuff at all times, and so it presents an opportunity for a pitcher to find out what they’re really good at, if such a thing exists.

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It’s not perfect, but I like Clay Holmes as an example of what a fully optimized Cannon might look like. When he came up to the majors with the Pirates, Holmes averaged about 94 mph on a sinker-heavy fastball mix and a broad arsenal that bears a pretty solid resemblance to Cannon’s. A move to the bullpen spiked Holmes’s velocity to 96-97 mph, and he went from throwing five pitches to locking in on the three that performed best. After several years dominating as a reliever, Holmes brought back the five-pitch mix for a move back to the rotation, and this time, he knew what to do with it, running a 3.53 ERA in 165 very solid innings for the New York Mets.

This isn’t to say that Cannon is going to turn into an elite closer, but it’s an example of how a move to the bullpen might unlock his full potential. If Cannon finds a way to do that before injuries and ineffectiveness chip away at the Opening Day starting five, he might be able to bring a newfound approach with him back to a starting role somewhere down the line.

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Mike Vasil will be out for a while now. Still, the harsh reality is that while he’s probably a solid MLB reliever, pretty much everything under the hood indicates he won’t be able to replicate the 100 innings of 2.50 ERA that he gave the Sox in 2025. It’s a shame because that’s the kind of contribution that can help push a competitive team from good to great, and it would likely have been far more valuable in 2028 than in 2025.

In short, Vasil 2026–28 likely wouldn’t match 2025, but an optimized Cannon could — and with enough starting experience, the team wouldn’t have to wait until 2027 to stretch him out. All in all, if Cannon is going to shave down his arsenal and lock in on finding out what he does best, I don’t think it’s going to happen as a No. 4 starter in the International League Triple-A East. I’ll take the upside I just described over the seemingly small chance he emerges as a true building block starting pitcher while having to deal with Charlotte’s offensive bandbox of a stadium.

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A couple of weeks ago, I talked a little about the implications that would be if Baldwin turned out to be an everyday-caliber player, or better. Given how much the pitching has lagged behind the starting lineup in getting high-impact prospects to the majors, the emergence of Cannon as a candidate for 100-ish effective innings as a multi-inning reliever and depth starter raises the floor of the staff by a full order of magnitude. Again, I love the thought of all three of Schultz, Smith, and McDougal forcing their way to the big league rotation with Triple-A dominance, but it’s not something you can expect or plan on. If things go according to plan, 2026 will be the last season in which wins and losses won’t really matter all that much, and the opportunity to take chances and risks with developing players won’t conflict with the necessity of engaging in a playoff chase.

Personally, I’m thrilled by the idea of not having to worry about rotation and long relief depth in the long term, because it opens the door to chasing a true ace next offseason. Stop spending money on back-end starters coming back from stints in other leagues and give Freddy Peralta or Shane Bieber or a resurgent Zac Gallen or an opted-out Tatsuya Imai what they’re worth to top the rotation alongside whichever of the Charlotte rotation prodigies shines the brightest. Or push it back a year and set your sights on Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, Pablo López, or Mackenzie Gore.

May we live in a world in which we get to find out!

In the 2024 MLB Draft, the Yankees used their first round pick on pitcher Ben Hess out of the University of Alabama. In that previous college season, Hess had posted a 5.80 ERA in 68.1 innings, which might not necessarily scream being the 26th overall pick. However, any draft/prospect people at the time would’ve been saying not to worry about that too much. For one, he struck out over 10 batters per nine innings every season in college, showing he had the raw “stuff.” Beyond just pitchers developing a good amount in the minor leagues beyond any development they do in high school and college, college baseball in particular can be a bit wild with offense.

Flash forward a year and a half with Hess now having spent parts of two seasons in the Yankees’ system, and you can see why that’s the case. Debuting in real games in 2025, he’s been good to very good at every minor league level he’s played at, and he also continues to strike out a boatload of batters. Now as we head into the 2026 season, how high might Hess be able to climb this year.

2025 Statistics (in High-A and Double-A): 22 games, 103.1 innings pitched, 3.22 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 2.94 xFIP, 85 ERA-, 139 K, 33.0 K%, 10.9 BB%, 0.26 HR/9, 1.07 WHIP

So far in spring training, Hess has impressed in a handful of innings in MLB spring games. In five innings, he’s posted a 1.80 ERA and has struck out six batters compared to two walks. You can read more about that and a greater look at his repertoire here, as we’re focusing more on his upcoming season in general. The Yankees have already reassigned him to minor league camp, but considering that he’s only reached as high as Double-A and the team has a lot of competition in the starting pitching department, that’s not a surprise nor a setback for him.

Just as one example, MLB Pipeline lists Hess’ major league ETA at 2027. That feels somewhat more realistic than 2026. With a full rotation already and the likes of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and maybe Clarke Schmidt returning at some point this year, the Yankees hopefully won’t have a massive need for starters, at least.

That being said, it’s also not impossible that a good season could get him a cameo this year. You’d imagine he’ll start the year at Double-A, having thrown 36.2 innings there last year. If he repeats his success there, it seems likely that they’d move him up to Triple-A, and at that point a player is right on the cusp. It doesn’t seem far-fetched that we could see him get some innings out of the bullpen as a September call-up or something like that, should he continue his upward trajectory. Getting up as a starter seems a little difficult, but then again, we would’ve been saying that about Cam Schlittler last year, so who knows.

On the other hand, unless the rotation suffers catastrophic injuries, there’s also no rush. Hess had progressed pretty nicely so far. Even when taking into account that college pitches can sometimes move through the minors a little faster, making it up to and having good results at Double-A in your first full year in the system is pretty impressive. Let’s hope we’re saying similar things about Hess following the 2026 season.

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See more of the Yankees Previews series here.

Not only was the World Baseball Classic a massive success, but it also featured Red Sox players as a main character in what felt like almost every game. So as our attention turns back to the more traditional 162 game brand of baseball, do any performances on the global stage change your outlook for the upcoming season (for either a player or the team as a whole)?

On the positive side, Roman Anthony looked as good as any hitter on Team USA until he struck out in the final at-bat of the tournament. This included a .920 OPS, a .400 OBP, and a game winning home run against the Dominican Republic.

Wilyer Abreu was also fantastic, hitting two of the biggest home runs of the entire tournament. The first was his titanic shot that changed the momentum for good against Japan, and the second occurred in the tight final 3-2 Venezuela win. He may have even been robbed of tournament MVP, but that’s a different discussion.

Meanwhile, Masataka Yoshida looked great in his Team Japan uniform, particularly in the Tokyo games. His OPS in the five games he played in the WBC was a whopping 1.257, and he also had a massive home run in pool play.

Then there’s Jarren Duran, who even though he played for Team Mexico which didn’t make it out of pool play this year, posted a 1.412 OPS in his four games. This also included three home runs.

It’s funny isn’t it? These are all guys associated with the outfield / DH logjam, and they all performed well during the WBC.

On the flip side, there were a couple of concerning outings in the knockout stage. The most obvious is probably Garrett Whitlock cracking in the ninth inning of the championship game after looking great in the semifinal against the D.R. It seems as true as ever that you have to spread Whitlock’s performances out enough to keep him effective, and, if you don’t, you’ll get burned in a brutal spot. It cost the Red Sox in the Wild Card series against the Yankees last October, and it cost Team USA in the WBC championship final.

Additionally, Ranger Suarez, who was the big free agent pickup of the offseason, got shelled in his game for Team Venezuela Saturday night. In fact, when you look at his line against Team Japan of five earned runs in 2.2 innings pitched and then note he was slated against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it’s kind of a miracle Venezuela won that game.

So how are you feeling a week away from the Sox season starting now that we’ve got a small sample size of results in games that matter? Talk about this and whatever else you’d like, and as always, be good to one another.

Wednesday saw the return of Shohei Ohtani to the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and in typical Shohei style, he picked up where he left off last season (aside from that Game 7 clunker).

Against the San Francisco Giants, Ohtani went 4 2/3 innings, allowing only one hit along with two walks and a hit batter.

Manager Dave Roberts was quite effusive in his remarks about Ohtani after the game.

“I was (surprised at how sharp he was). But I guess I’ve learned that you don’t ever underestimate or try to make predictions on what Shohei’s going to do. He’s always going to deliver. Yeah, I thought he would be a little bit more rusty than he was today. The breaking ball was good, got some swing and miss. The fastball command, he was working ahead in the count today. So across the board, really good.”

“It actually didn’t feel like it was my first spring training outing,” Ohtani said through his interpreter. “I do see this as more of an extension of a live BP situation. So it didn’t feel too bad going into this game.”

Bill Plunkett of the OC Register has many more quotes about Ohtani’s performance today, and how he felt over this offseason as opposed to last offseason. Spoiler alert – he felt great. Coming off your second World Series win in as many years and finally being healthy can have that effect on a man.

Jack Harris of the California Post shared a little bit more behind the scenes of the Dodgers pursuit of free agent Kyle Tucker. For as good as Tucker is, and for highly sought after he was in the offseason, the Dodgers wanted to know if he was ready to level up to compete on all cylinders.

“We feel like, with where he’s at, getting a complete season out of him on both sides of the ball is very attainable,” Friedman said. “And we feel like, in our environment, we can help bring that out of him even more.”

So far this spring, Tucker is batting .250 with two homers and three RBI. While Spring Training stats aren’t always indicative of what that player will be like in the season, it seems that Tucker has a little more work to do to achieve his best season yet.

Miguel Rojas spent six frantic minutes on Monday dealing with the fallout of an erroneous tweet sent out by Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The tweet stated that Miggy Ro had been suspended for 80 games for testing positive for use of a banned substance. It was in fact Johan Rojas of the Philadelphia Phillies who had tested positive for Boldenone, not the World Series hero.

Maddie Lee at the Los Angeles Times covered the fallout, and how Drellich finally issued a more formal apology on Wednesday to Miguel and the Dodgers organization. Seven minutes was seven minutes too long, as I’m sure Toronto Blue Jays and other baseball fans would’ve had some choice things to say about that infamous homer that would’ve marred that moment forever.

“I’m not frustrated because of the report, because we are all humans and we make mistakes,” Rojas said Wednesday morning in front of his locker at Camelback Ranch. “I was expecting a little bit more of an apology, not just to me, but the organization. Because it wasn’t just my name, it was pretty clear that it says, ‘Miguel Rojas from the Los Angeles Dodgers.’ And I don’t think anybody in this organization should be kind of freaking out and jumping out of their seats for the six or seven minutes that it happened.”

If there’s one thing we know about the Brewers and starting pitchers, it will be that they use a lot of them. Listen to any broadcast about the team and you will likely hear, at least once, a mention of how many starting pitchers the team has used over the past couple of seasons. (This is a true but somewhat misleading statement, as those counts tend to include “openers,” but the point stands.)

Already in mid-March, we’ve seen why the Brewers leaned into acquiring a lot of starting pitcher depth. They traded for highly regarded, about-major-league ready young pitchers in both of the Freddy Peralta and Caleb Durbin trades to go along with the several that were already in the organization.

The loss of Peralta will undoubtedly matter. Peralta was (and still is!) a very good pitcher, an excellent clubhouse presence, and one of the team’s longest-tenured players. But the Brewers have done just about as well as a team with their limited financial means can in terms of replacing him with multiple options that should be able to contribute this season and for many seasons beyond. Let’s take a look.

The veteran

One thing that this pitching staff will not have in abundance is experience. By my count, there are 12 pitchers who are somewhat in contention for getting starts at the beginning of the season, though that includes three players I expect to be in the bullpen (but who the powers-that-be have murmured about as starters) and one who is currently injured. Of those 12 pitchers, there is one who is 33 years old. There are zero others who are within five years of that one player’s age.

The veteran, of course, is Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff, who turned 33 in February, is five years and three months older than the second-oldest player in this group, Aaron Ashby. Woodruff has started 127 career games; that’s 88 more than any other player on the roster. He’s thrown 745 career innings; the other 11 players in this group have that beat, if you combine them all, but if you narrow the field down to the seven pitchers most likely to grab spots in the rotation, they come up short, with just 717 innings between them.

Woodruff, at this point, isn’t really a known quantity. His health issues are well documented — he hasn’t thrown even 70 innings in a season since 2022. He finished last season hurt. He is obviously not getting any younger.

But last season Woodruff, even with somewhat diminished stuff over what he had at his best in the early 2020s, showed how valuable he can be. Despite lower velocity he managed the best K:BB ratio of his career at 5.93. He had career-best rates in walks per nine and strikeouts per nine. The underlying metrics suggest that those are probably unsustainable, and the losses on his stuff may have contributed to his career-worst rate in home runs per nine innings.

But he will certainly be able to provide leadership and he’s not going to make it easy for hitters. I wouldn’t put it past Woodruff turning into an impeccable control pitcher at this point in his career, either; he’s always had a good walk rate, and he’s a smart enough pitcher to realize that if he can’t throw in the mid-to-upper 90s anymore, he’s going to need to lean into different strengths.

The results could be mixed, and who would take the over if you asked over/under 75 innings this season? But Woodruff can still serve an important function to this team and this pitching staff.

The new guys

There are a whole bunch of players in this category, a few who are new to the organization and a few who came up through the organization. The thing that they all have in common is a lack of time in the big leagues; Quinn Priester leads this group with 257 major league innings, and not one other player has reached 200.

Priester is, of course, injured. And while I’m optimistic, there are those who viewed his late-season (possibly injury-influenced) swoon as a major warning sign, especially when coupled with the fact that Priester outperformed his FIP by 0.69 runs. But Priester is an excellent example of the Brewers’ front office finding players whose particular talents — in this case, ground balls — are tailored to the team behind them.

The new-to-the-org guys include Brandon Sproat (acquired in the Peralta trade) and Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan, acquired for Durbin. Sproat and Harrison are relatively recent top 100 prospects. Drohan is a late bloomer who was extremely good in Triple-A last year, but who hasn’t thrown an inning in the majors yet. Harrison hasn’t clicked in the big leagues, yet, but he doesn’t turn 25 until August. All three have intriguing arsenals that you’d expect the Brewers will be able to maximize.

The internal prospects include Jacob Misiorowski, Chad Patrick, Robert Gasser, and Logan Henderson. Gasser, who has made seven career starts dating back to May 2024, is the only one who pitched in the big leagues before last season. Patrick, who spent a good chunk of last season in the rotation, is the only one who has thrown more than 100 innings as a big leaguer.

Misiorowski, of course, could quickly become one of the league’s best pitchers if he’s able to consistently find his spots. Whether or not he can do that remains a question, but if he figures out his control, you’ve got a guy who throws 104 mph with massive extension and multiple devastating off-speed pitches (some of which still reach the plate faster than many other pitchers’ fastballs). Misiorowski walked 4.2 batters per nine innings last year, a number that would’ve tied for second in the league among qualified pitchers, and that mark was better than any of his three seasons in the minors (not including 2022, when he walked seven batters in 1 2/3 innings in his two-game professional debut).

Henderson, like Sproat, has only made a handful of appearances in the majors, but Henderson made such an impression in his five starts early in the 2025 season that it’s difficult not to be excited about him. In those five starts, Henderson allowed only five runs in 25 1/3 innings (a 1.78 ERA) and struck out 33 batters (11.7 per nine). While he won’t keep that pace, and there are questions about his velocity and a third viable pitch (in his five starts last year Henderson threw a fastball or a changeup 89% of the time), there’s a lot of intriguing talent.

Patrick had a great 2025. He made his major league debut in a relief outing on March 29 and was a staple of the rotation (and Rookie of the Year candidate) through the first week of July, when he was demoted not really because he was bad but because the Brewers were finally healthy again and he was the odd man out. Patrick worked on some new stuff in the minors and came back in late August, and down the stretch he served a valuable role as a reliever capable of going multiple innings. He served in that role in the postseason, where he allowed just two runs on three hits and a walk in nine innings while striking out 11. He, along with Misiorowski, was one of the most reliable players in the Brewers’ 11-game postseason run.

Gasser is the one in this group whose future might look murkiest. A fringe top 100 prospect prior to the 2024 season, he — like Henderson last year — made five good starts for the Brewers that season. But an elbow injury required Tommy John surgery, and Gasser didn’t get back to the big leagues until late last season, when he got in 5 2/3 innings in two shaky starts. He got beat up a little bit in the postseason, too, and he hasn’t looked very good in spring training. Gasser is still only 26 and you can’t give up on a guy after less than 35 career innings, but of all the guys in this preview, he’s the one who’s probably trending most downward.

But given the way the Brewers handle their starters, he’s likely to get a shot at some point this year, so we’ll hope he can get back to the promising form he showed before his arm injury.

The relievers who they keep telling us could start

Three players fit into this category, and they’re all left-handed: Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, and Ángel Zerpa. I’m going on the record now to say that I’m skeptical any of them will be any sort of traditional “starter” in the big leagues this year; they just have too many options, and while the bullpen is likely to be pretty heavy on lefties, I don’t necessarily think that’s a problem.

Ashby has proven capable of being one of the league’s top relievers, and the fact that he’ll be “stretched out” as a potential starter (he’s thrown 4 2/3 innings in two spring appearances) could just mean that he’s being prepped as an old-school “fireman,” an ace reliever capable of throwing two or three innings at a time. Ashby did this with regularity last season, when he threw 66 2/3 innings across 43 appearances, and he was excellent in doing so: a 2.16 ERA, 10.3 strikeouts per nine, and — qualitatively — stuff that, when he was on, looked impossible to hit.

I personally don’t believe it makes a ton of sense to move Ashby into a starting role when he’s proven this effective as a reliever. Yes, the Brewers tied some long-term money into Ashby that would make him somewhat expensive as a reliever, but if he’s one of the best relievers in the league he’s still a bargain at the $5.7 million he’ll make this year (and $7.7 million next year, with club options at $9 million and $13 million the next two). If the Brewers had more pressing needs in the starting rotation, I’d say sure, but as long as they’ve got options there, I believe Ashby is more valuable out of the pen.

Hall is similar to Ashby in terms of the starter/reliever dynamic, but he’s also got a lot to prove. Hall, like Garrett Mitchell, has intriguing talent but hasn’t been able to stay on the field, and in Hall’s case there have been some concerning trends in his pitch velocity. Hall has managed just 81 2/3 innings since coming to Milwaukee as one of the two major pieces in the Corbin Burnes trade, and while he’s shown flashes, the results have been largely inconsequential.

What we need to see from Hall is a healthy season so that the Brewers can get an actual assessment of where he fits. He’s still pre-arbitration, so it’s not like they’re taking any financial risk here; he likely starts the season in the bullpen, too, but he has started in the past and could conceivably do that again if there is need.

Zerpa, to my eyes, is just a reliever (a role he filled for the World Baseball Classic winners, Venezuela, over the last two weeks). Of his 148 big-league appearances, 140 are out of the bullpen, and while he did mostly start in the minor leagues, so did a lot of pitchers who end up as relievers. I see no indication that Zerpa (who hasn’t been pitching more than an inning at a time all spring) is being considered for any role other than as a typical reliever, despite what Matt Arnold and Pat Murphy would have us believe.

Anyone else?

Beyond those nine players — Woodruff, Misiorowski, Priester, Patrick, Harrison, Sproat, Henderson, Gasser, and Drohan, in roughly that order, I would think — who is in the upper levels of the minors who could play a role this season if necessary?

The top two names here are Carlos Rodriguez, who has made seven appearances with the Brewers over the last two seasons, and Coleman Crow, who hasn’t debuted yet, because they are the two “starters” who are on the 40-man roster. Rodriguez is still young, but he’s got a 6.95 ERA across 22 major league innings and he’s sort of getting edged out of the prospect conversation.

Crow, who the Brewers got from the Mets in the December 2023 trade that sent Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor to Queens, had an excellent 2025 season at Double-A Biloxi, where he posted a 2.51 ERA in 10 starts and had a 6.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the season at Triple-A Nashville, where he’ll start this year, and if enough players get injured, he could find his way to Milwaukee at some point this season.

Beyond those two, there’s not a whole lot else I’ve got my eye on for 2026, though the Brewers tend to surprise us in this regard.

Who makes the rotation?

Probably all of them? But I’ll take a stab at the Opening Day rotation.

We know that Quinn Priester will start the season on the IL with a hopeful return sometime in April or May. Brandon Woodruff is ramping up but probably won’t quite be ready, either. Based on Murphy’s comments, it seems that Misiorowski and Patrick will definitely start the season in the rotation. I’m going to say Harrison gets there, too.

I think the Brewers start Sproat in the minors, unless they want to use him for a start or two and then send him down when Woodruff is ready. I just think the service-time incentive is there for the Brewers to hold him in the minors for about six weeks this year.

I don’t have a good grasp on where the Brewers go with the last two spots to open the season, but just to make a guess, I’m going to say Gasser, as a lefty, gets one of them. For what it’s worth, Adam McCalvy thinks Aaron Ashby gets a spot in the rotation; I don’t really feel good about that as a long-term fix, but it might work in the short term. If we go along with that and say that Ashby starts the season in the rotation, I think it would be in a “piggyback” situation, where you might see Ashby and, for instance, Hall on the same day for three-ish innings each.

The Brewers certainly have enough pitchers to cover the innings they need to cover, but the combination in which they do so will remain mysterious for a while.

One of the reasons that the Orioles targeted Zach Eflin at the 2024 trade deadline—beyond his solid track record as a dependable big league arm—was that he came with an additional season of control. He wasn’t due to hit free agency for more than a year, meaning he could help the Orioles through 2025, a crucial season in their perceived competitive window. Unfortunately, that didn’t really pan out.

Eflin was given the Opening Day nod for the O’s in 2025. The team was still waiting on Grayson Rodriguez’s shoulder to respond to his rehab, and they knew Kyle Bradish wouldn’t be back until late in the campaign due to Tommy John surgery. So, by default, the honor fell to Eflin. That would prove to be the high point in a nightmare season.

On that day, Eflin went six innings and allowed two runs en route to a win over the eventual AL Champion Toronto Blue Jays. While the 13 other starts he made on the season weren’t all stinkers, the veteran struggled to find consistency. His fastball velocity was down a tick, and he was having a hard time missing bats. All the while he was battling injuries.

Eflin’s first IL stint came on April 9. A right lat strain put him on the shelf for a month. He returned on May 11 and made nine straight starts, but the results were poor. In that time he tossed 44 innings, struck out 34, walked 10, and gave up 14 home runs. Over that nine-start stretch he had a 7.16 ERA/6.48 FIP. On June 30 he went back on the IL with lower back discomfort. The Orioles reactivated him a month later, he made two starts, and was then done for the year.

Ultimately, the decision was made that Eflin would need surgery on his back. The pitcher indicated that it had been a nagging concern for him dating back years, and it was time to get it fixed. In mid-August, Eflin underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy surgery. He expected to be ready for spring training.

Where he would end up pitching was a mystery though. The Orioles were back in the market for arms, but expected to be seeking upgrades. Eflin, it seemed, was hoping for a one-year “prove-it” deal to show the league he was worthy of the multi-year commitment he was chasing. In the end, both sides came back together in late December on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027.

The speculation right now indicates the the Orioles may go into the season with a six-man rotation. That would include Eflin, who is looking to build himself back up after throwing just 71.1 big league innings in 2025. Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers are two other prominent arms in the rotation that didn’t pitch full seasons last summer either. Using six starters provides some protection for all of them.

However, the Orioles have been particularly cautious with Eflin this spring. As of this writing, he’s made just one appearance in a Grapefruit League game, tossing two innings on March 5. Maybe he has built himself up more on the back fields or in bullpens, but usually teams want their starters doing more in-game work by this point in camp. For comparison, Bradish and Chris Bassitt both have more than 10 innings under their belt this spring.

That opens the door for an IL stint for Eflin to begin the year. It doesn’t mean he’s hurt, but rather that he’s behind. The team could take advantage of the off days built into the early part of the schedule, put him on the IL for two weeks and not really miss a beat.

Whether he begins the year on the IL or not, the projection systems are not expecting the soon-t0-be-32-year-old to have a full workload:

• ZiPS: 8-6, 102.7 IP, 4.38 ERA, 6.75 K/9, 1.240 WHIP
• BRef: 6-7, 112 IP, 4.36 ERA, 7.70 K/9, 1.232 WHIP

Those numbers don’t stray too far from his career 4.28 ERA or 7.7 K/9. The salary and single year of commitment the Orioles made seem to indicate that they would be fine with that sort of output. They aren’t turning to Eflin as an ace. He needs to be stable and dependable, right alongside Bassitt and Dean Kremer, in the back half of the Orioles rotation. They would probably like to see him throw closer to 140-150 innings though.

What do you think of these projections? Do you think Eflin will largely remain healthy? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section.

Yesterday the Guardians Spring Breakout roster was finalized. Quincy has a quick rundown of the roster here. Cleveland will be playing the Angels today at 2PM ET and the game can be watched on MLB.com and MLB.tv.

As Spring Training winds down, MLB did a pulse check on where each AL Central team is sitting at this point in Spring Training. Guardians beat writer Tim Stebbins weighed in on Cleveland’s position.

Our Covering the Corner staff is ramping up to Opening Day. We will be previewing each of the AL Central teams. Yesterday it kicked off with the Chicago White Sox.

And we come to our end. Sneaking onto the prospect list is last year’s 55th overall pick, Ryan Mitchell. Good decision guys. As you will see on my list, I’m pretty high on the guy. Here’s the final list in all its glory. I don’t think you guys pick a clear dud this time! As in a player who seems like an obviously bad pick at the time (to me at least) who then doesn’t have a particularly good season. (With apologies to Moises Gomez and Matt Koperniak)

1. JJ Wetherholt (2B)
2. Liam Doyle (LHP)
3. Rainiel Rodriguez (C)
4. Quinn Mathews (LHP)
5. Jurrangelo Cjintje (RHP)
6. Joshua Baez (OF)
7. Leonardo Bernal (C)
8. Jimmy Crooks (C)
9. Brandon Clarke (LHP)
10. Tink Hence (RHP)
11. Tekoah Roby (RHP)
12. Tanner Franklin (RHP)
13. Brycen Mautz (LHP)
14. Nathan Church (OF)
15. Cooper Hjerpe (LHP)
16. Ixan Henderson (LHP)
17. Yairo Padilla (SS)
18. Deniel Ortiz (1B/3B)
19. Yhoiker Fajardo (RHP)
20. Ryan Mitchell (OF)

If you guys are curious, if you go by the percentages of the final vote, the 21st best prospect is Luis Gastelum, although I kind of suspect someone behind him would have jumped ahead of him just because I feel like a decent percentage will not vote for a reliever over a seemingly deserving top 20 position player prospect. Who that player would be though is anyone’s guess. Jesus Baez was next, with 27 votes, followed by Tai Peete, with 24, and then Blaze Jordan at 23. Literally any one of those guys could have been voted as the 21st best prospect in my opinion. My gut says Baez though.

My Top 20

This was an extremely difficult top 20 for me to construct. The reason is almost entirely due to the fact that the Cardinals have an incredible amount of high upside, yet probable relievers in their system. In theory, a reliever does not belong in the top 20 of a system as strong as the Cardinals, but technically most of those guys do not have a 0% chance to start, so what percentage chance am I looking for? I don’t really have a great answer to that question.

One way to understand my rankings: I value my belief in them starting quite a bit. If I don’t really believe they’re going to start, they’re not going to be that high on my list. Gordon Graceffo, who ranked 12th on last year’s list by the VEB voters, was not in my top 20. But compared to the decisions I have to make for this year’s list, that was an easy for decision me. Graceffo’s upside pales in comparison to some of the names this year who I think are probably ending up in the bullpen. (LYR is my ranking of this player on last year’s list)

1. JJ Wetherholt (LYR: #2)
2. Raniel Rodriguez (LYR: not in top 20)
3. Liam Doyle (LYR: not in organization)

Last year I put Wetherholt as my second best prospect mainly because him dominating Low A did not really tell us anything and he didn’t really have any power there. I went out on a limb for my #1 pick as you will later see, which was a very bad decision, but it was basically nitpicking. No such issues this year. He hit better at AAA than he did at AA and he hit better at AA than he did at Low A. Also, his power sure showed up. MLB-ready on Day One of the MLB season. Super easy decision.

As far as Doyle versus Rodriguez, I just came up with too many reasons to pick Rodriguez. Rodriguez will be 19 in High A, Doyle is likely to be 22 in AA. Doyle has some reliever risk, injury concerns, and a little bit of a one-season wonder concerns, and just in general, betting on a position player is typically the better bet. The main argument against Rodriguez is that he’s farther away, but he honestly might not be that much farther away than Doyle and he’s three years younger. I’ll quote Baseball Prospectus here:

“As one of the youngest hitters in the league, he was in the top quarter of 2025 Florida State League hitters on basically every meaningful batted ball metric, including average exit velocity, 90th-percentile exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and pulled fly-ball rate. His contact rates and overall bat-to-ball skills trend around average, and average contact with this type of power at this age portend huge offensive outcomes. (It all looks right, too.) Combine all of this with a selectively aggressive zone presence, and you have about as elite a skill grouping as you can get from a catcher this young. Had Rodriguez remained in Philadelphia instead of returning to the Dominican Republic before signing, he very well could’ve been the first pick in last summer’s amateur draft.”

4. Jurrangelo Cjintje (LYR: Not in organization)

5. Joshua Baez (LYR: Not in top 20)

6. Quinn Mathews (LYR: #3)

I am ranking these three in this order because of upside. I think Cjintje might even be underrated because his numbers as a left-handed pitcher really dragged down his numbers, they were really that bad. On the flipside, he really was that good as a right-handed pitcher, throwing nearly 100 mph with a strong breaking pitch and improving change. He was drafted as a project and has made more progress faster than expected, so I think that’s a very good sign.

As for Joshua Baez, yeah I’m a believer. The fact that he’s only done it for one season is just enough to get him placed 5th, and I think if he had a better history, it’d be difficult to not put him above Cjintje, because position player over pitcher. So I’m hedging a tiny bit. As for Mathews, I just don’t think he’s competing, upside-wise, with the guys ahead of him. It’s not that I’m low on him, I’m just that high on the first five guys.

7. Leonardo Bernal (LYR: #5)

8. Tekoah Roby (LYR: #7)

9. Yhoiker Fajardo (LYR: Not in organization)

This is where I lose 90 percent of you. Remember what I said above. I place a lot of emphasis on my belief in a guy sticking at starter. I have a probably irrational belief that Roby will stick at starter. If you ask me to explain what distinguishes him from the other guys who I mostly don’t think will start, I don’t think I have a good answer for you. But he’s been consistently pretty good when healthy with the exception of 2024. He was truly excellent in AA last season and then pretty solid at Memphis, good enough that had he not gotten injured, we’d place him in the same bucket as Quinn Mathews, wanting to know when and not if he’ll get chances to start this year. Believe it or not, me ranking him 8th is me taking into account his Tommy John surgery, because he’d probably be higher if he were healthy.

As far as Fajardo, I will point out that Baseball Prospectus also has him ranked 9th, so I’m not completely off my rocker here. His performance coupled with the fact that he was 18 was hard for me to ignore. He’s already built up his workload up to 72 innings and will be primed to throw 100 this upcoming season, which puts him in a much better spot than the comparable 19-year-olds who got drafted last season. BP notes that he just started throwing a kick change last year and it immediately flashed above average. He already has a fairly strong slider and a mid-90s fastball, and given his age there may be room for even more growth. I’ve mentioned he is in a good position to enter a top 100 list next season, and I don’t think it would make sense to rank him much lower than this if I truly believed that.

10. Jimmy Crooks (LYR: #6)

11. Jesus Baez (LYR: not in organization)

Yeah I’m just straight up ignoring the “character concerns.” I’m not going to say it’s just a Keith Law thing, but nothing remotely centering around work ethic or maturity was mentioned on either Baseball Prospectus or MLB Pipeline. He was also 20 when Law saw whatever he saw that made him go nuclear on him. I’d take it a little more seriously if he were 24, but he just started to be able to legally drink in the US about 20 days ago. Ignoring that, he’s a 21-year-old who has earned his way to start the season in AA who is not expected to stay at SS, but who is still playing games at SS (14 after the trade) which makes me think he shouldn’t really be bad at 2B or 3B and maybe even good. This is an age pick.

In terms of Crooks, his drop may seem harsh, but I really did not like that his K% and BB% both went way in the wrong direction. And I mean AAA. His performance in the majors did not help. I liked his offensive profile in the past because he walked about 10-11% of the time and struck out around 21-22%. Those numbers went to 8% and 26% in AAA and with his MLB performance, ZiPS dropped his projected BB% to below 7% and his K% to above 27%. Yes, he has great defense (though I’m skeptical of the 70 grade FG gives him), but in my internal calculus, most outcomes result in him being a defensive-oriented backup.

12. Tink Hence (LYR: #1)

13. Cooper Hjerpe (LYR: #9)

14. Ryan Mitchell (LYR: not in organization)

I don’t really expect either Hence or Hjerpe to start at this point. But they’re in very similar spots, both needing their innings managed to such an extent that they are somewhat likely to end up in the MLB bullpen by the end of this season assuming health. Hence is higher simply because he’s 23, and thus I think they’ll always wonder if they can move him back to starting for the next 3-4 years whereas with Hjerpe, I kind of feel like he’s either starting next season or he’ll just be relegated to the bullpen for good.

I like Ryan Mitchell a lot and I’m taking a chance here. I’m just noticing that he got spring training chances, only three of them, but I’d venture to guess most high school draft picks do not get an at-bat in spring training the year after they’re drafted. So there is a chance he’s sent to Palm Beach and not rookie league. In addition, from what I’ve read, his hit tool and approach seem less risky than your typical high school prospect to bank on.

15. Brandon Clarke (LYR: not in organization)

16. Brycen Mautz (LYR: Not in top 20)

17. Ixan Henderson (LYR: Not in top 20, but was in my honorable mentions)

Okay, so I think Clarke being this low might get the most attention. I don’t particularly care how high your potential is if I don’t believe you’ll start. And boy, Clarke makes Cooper Hjerpe look like Mark Buerhle. Hjerpe at least threw 77 and 103 innings back in college. Clarke had Tommy John surgery at 16 in 2019, missed his freshman season at Alabama from thoracic outlet syndrome, causing him to transfer to a junior college. He had a stress fracture in his shoulder that caused him to miss most of his first season there, throwing just 3.2 innings. He finally stayed healthy enough to throw 74 innings in 2024, which led to him being drafted

I’m actually surprised how highly Clarke is ranking everywhere given his injury history. This is about as bad of an injury history as you can get. And now we’re throwing some weird injuries into the mix, with blisters and an aneurysm causing him to miss at least the first two months of this season. I mean look at this picture, this looks like a guy whose arm is a ticking time bomb and we’re losing valuable “healthy” time to blisters and aneurysm in his throwing arm?

The consensus seems to be that Ixan Henderson is the better scouted starting pitcher, but Mautz had a better K%, better BB% and got more groundballs, so I struggle to put Henderson above him.

18. Nathan Church (LYR: Not in top 20)

19. Deniel Ortiz (LYR: Hadn’t debuted)

20. Braden Davis (LYR: Hadn’t debuted)

Church was three days away from not being considered a prospect and I really wish he wasn’t considered one honestly, because I don’t know what to do with him on a prospect list. I would probably be considered the low man on his offense, just because his combination of probably not walking (6.3 BB% projection) and very little power (.096 ISO) is a tough profile to make into a good hitter or even an average one. Here’s hoping his increased bat speed means more power. There is a potential downside though and that’s more strikeouts, and you just got to hope it doesn’t cancel out his power gains cause that’s his main offensive talent right now.

Ortiz isn’t higher primarily because from what I can tell, he’s very limited defensively, which is putting all the onus on his bat to work out. Look at Alec Burleson. Defense at 1B pending, but if he’s a 120 wRC+ hitter, he’s probably an average player. That’s just a high bar to expect from a prospect. I was very surprised how quickly Braden Davis was dismissed by this group, but I won’t do the same. He posted some absurd strikeout numbers and I know he has some control issues as far as walks go, but I’m kind of banking on the theory that a pitcher who comes to camp with increased stuff will initially struggle with command. He has a 50 command potential on Fangraphs and I can’t ignore that he struck out a third of batters if that’s in the cards.

Honorable Mentions

I realized at the back half of my list that I was going to be excluding people who I just assumed were going to be in my top 20. But I made that assumption for something like 25 guys, because I realized no matter who I added, someone wasn’t being added who I took for granted would be on the list.

Tanner Franklin is not on the list just because of how far he has to go to start games. I don’t know his game logs in college, but he maxed out last year at 2.1 innings pitched. I would be surprised if he pitched more than that in college because he averaged 1.4 innings per appearance. So I don’t really think he’ll even be asked to go 5 innings this year, or at least not very often. And I could handle his numbers in college better if he wasn’t a pure reliever. I’m not NOT a believer, but I think I’m just going to need to see some evidence that he can start in the future.

I didn’t expect to leave Yairo Padilla off my list, but to be frank, I did not realize scouts were not particularly high on his defense at SS. He’s basically a prospect because he has a lot of power potential, but he’s shown zero so far. There is value in him still performing more or less the same as when he was in the DSL so we can trust him a little more, but not enough for my top 20.

I actually wrote out a whole section about Cade Crossland, but I realized he did not have a good case over Braden Davis. But he had strong K/BB numbers in the SEC, which is close enough to Low A in quality that I trust he’s more or less ready for High A even though I don’t expect him to start there. I also kind of thought I’d find an excuse to put Won-Bin Cho on the list, but I couldn’t justify that one. I think he’s been written off too soon though. I also thought I would include Tai Peete, but whenever you pair him head-to-head to a player, it’s like “well no I think I need to choose Nathan Church over him.”

I didn’t think I would include him, but I certainly want to believe in Blaze Jordan. I want to believe in Chase Davis. Hell, I want to believe in Colton Ledbetter. But they all have enough question marks to rather easily leave them off this list. Chen-Wei Lin wasn’t ever really considered when I actually made my list, but while the voting happened, I was thinking he might slip in later on, but yeah just way too many names.

Couple other shout-outs are to Andrew Dutkanych, mostly for you guys. Every year, there’s a player who I think I’m high on and then your guys voting habits tell me you are much higher. That happened to Victor Scott back in the day, when I put him on the top 20 first and you guys didn’t and then the next year you placed him 3rd. I kept expecting Dutkanych to lose votes and aside from the final vote for #20, he didn’t. Also Luis Gastelum, you came at the wrong time, you’d be in the top 20 a couple years ago for sure.

Welcome back to our AL Central previews, where I’ll give my take on the other four teams challenging Detroit for the AL Central title. We touched on Kansas City’s top-heavy roster the other day. Later, we’ll be checking out the rebuilding Chicago White Sox and the aimless Minnesota Twins. For now, though, it’s time to look at the Cleveland Guardians’ roster of misfits that always seems to find a way.

As a reminder, we’ll begin with the projected records from both Baseball Prospectus PECOTA systems and FanGraphs Depth Charts systems and a summary of what changed over the winter. Then, we’ll focus on the best and worst parts of the Guardian’s roster and a few key players who could have an outsized impact on Cleveland’s status this year. Let’s get into it.

Projected Record and Team Summary

This one’s a lot simpler than the KC Royals’ was because PECOTA and the Depth Charts are much more aligned. PECOTA forecasts a 75-87 record, while DC has them at 76-86, which is a rounding error in projections-land. Basically, nothing the Guardians did last year to sneak away with the AL title seemed legitimate. That starts with the fact they were outscored by 6 runs over the course of the season, which suggests a general talent level closer to .500 than the .543 they actually posted. Additionally, their starters’ ERA outperformed their FIP by almost half a run per 9 innings despite a middle of the road defense. An excellent bullpen would help explain a bit, except the team had a sub-.500 winning percentage in games decided by 1 run, when a good bullpen matters the most. Make it make sense.

Addition-wise, this is basically the same team as 2025. Cleveland added 3 relievers – Connor Brogdon, Shawn Armstrong, and Colin Holderman – and brought back Austin Hedges. They also committed a roster spot to Peyton Pallette, an effectively wild relief prospect with the White Sox, in the Rule 5 draft. That’s it for external additions. Expect a few prospects like Chase DeLauter or Travis Bazzana to come up in the early parts of 2026 and shake up an otherwise uninspiring offense. Injuries have been all that could stop DeLauter from rushing through the minor leagues; he currently projects as a Colt Keith type of hitter who can fake it in center field for now. Bazzana hasn’t quite lived up to expectations as a 1-1 pick in 2024, but he does have an OPS above .800 for his minor league career and should be ready around midseason.

Greatest Strength: Bullpen

The bullpen is where Cleveland really shines. Their vaunted rotation pipeline of the 2010s tailed off with Shane Bieber’s injury, but the bullpen has continued to thrive. Last year, the Guardian’s bullpen rated as between the best and fourth best bullpen in all of baseball in most major metrics. Of course, losing Emmanuel Clase for suspected gambling charges hurts, but of all the bullpens set to lose a top-3 reliever, Cleveland’s is certainly the one best equipped to handle it.

This operation starts with Cade Smith, who took over the closing role once Clase was suspended and hasn’t looked back. That shouldn’t have been a surprise, of course. Armed with a near unhittable fastball, Smith has struck out about 35% of all batters he has faced since he made the majors in 2024, 7th highest among MLB relievers. He doesn’t allow hard contact or walks and has thrown over 70 innings each season. He’s as good as it gets.

The rest of the bullpen is more typical, but still excellent. Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, and Shawn Armstrong might not be household names, but they all strike out a lot of batters. Behind them is a group of interesting depth arms, up-and-down matchup relievers, and a few backend starter types getting the long relief treatment. An extremely durable starting rotation helps set the stage for the bullpen’s success, too, as Cleveland’s relievers threw the second-fewest innings of any unit last year. It stands to reason that reduced workload helps prevent relievers from getting overexposed or tiring out, which feels like it can only be a good thing.

Greatest Weakness: The Entire Offense

On the other side is the anemic offensive cast around Jose Ramirez. Last year, only one team – the Pittsburgh Pirates – had a lower team OPS. Even including Ramirez and Steven Kwan, their teamwide OPS was .670; Javy Baez had a .680. That says a lot. It’s also new for Cleveland. A traditional “scrappy” Cleveland team is more like the 2024 iteration, which posted an OPS of .702 in a year league average was .711. They’re usually respectable, or at least good enough to support an excellent pitching staff buoyed by a pretty good defensive squad behind them. Last year, though, everything fell apart, and the projection systems don’t really believe in a big bounce back for the team. Investing more than $4M to bring back Austin Hedges would certainly have helped; right now, it’s mostly the same team as 2025 but a year older, which doesn’t feel too smart.

As you probably expected, the lineup dries up quickly behind Ramirez. Kwan and Kyle Manzardo are about as good as it gets. After that, it’s a glove first catcher in Bo Naylor, an oft-injured rookie in Chase DeLauter, and non-roster 1B Rhys Hoskins, and that’s before we get to the really bad part. This is, essentially, a team that had multiple starting roles filled by guys who hit like Jake Rogers, made the playoffs anyways, and is running it back. Some of them will accidentally BABIP their way to better results, and a few will legitimately improve over the winter, but make no mistake, this is not a good offense. Whether it’s somehow good enough, we won’t know until much later.

X-Factor: David Fry and Gavin Williams

Tigers fans should be very, very familiar with David Fry. I won’t clip that 2024 home run, but we all remember it. In 2024, Fry was a slugging utility hitter who could hold his own behind the plate and frequently landed in the middle of Cleveland’s lineup. Last year, though, everything went wrong. He started the year on the IL after offseason UCL surgery, then his offensive game collapsed when he returned. His strikeout rate ballooned to an incomprehensible 36% and his OPS dropped by over .200 points over 66 games. That wasn’t even the worst part, though; his season ended after taking a Tarik Skubal fastball to the face while attempting a bunt. He’s healthy and resumed catching this spring, so hopefully the injury woes are behind him. Projection systems can’t ignore the atrocious performance last year, but it’s easy to expect a rebound now he’s fully healthy. Cleveland could certainly use a return to form to deepen their lineup.

Gavin Williams, on the other hand, is already a pretty known quantity. The hard-throwing righty is now three years into a pattern of being a little too erratic and not striking out as many batters as the raw stuff would suggest. He’s already a good starter, but he also represents Cleveland’s best bet at getting top of the rotation results from any of their starters. Williams learning to weaponize his high-octane stuff a bit better could turn Cleveland’s rotation from a deep one without any singular stand-out to one of the better units across the league. Pairing that with the already-excellent bullpen would create a solid run prevention unit that might help paper over the gaps of a weak lineup.

Overall, Cleveland rates as a budget version of the Kansas City Royals. Their superstar offensive player is on the wrong side of 30, they have offensive holes both larger and more widespread than KC’s, their rotation currently lacks a front end presence, and their upcoming prospects are less likely to really revamp their lineup, though they could add some much needed thump. The bullpen is a separating factor even after losing Emmanuel Clase to his gambling scandal, but also the least consistent element of a team year to year. If things break right with their prospects and a few key arms step forward, Cleveland could pose a real threat, but right now, I can’t really see it. Maybe they’ll magic their way to another 85+ wins, but that shouldn’t be how things work out. It’s baseball, though, so anything can happen; I just have Detroit as a solidly better team across the board.

Game result:Diamondbacks 16, Cubs 8.

Zounds!

Jefferson Rojas continues to impress. He’ll need to get that BA up, though, to get to The Show. Miguel Amaya is smoking the ball. So is Matt Shaw. The pitching? The jury is still out. The third inning was troublesome for everypitcher. Knoxville sometime starter Dawson Netz closed out that span after six runs scored, but that wasn’t the end of it. Edward Cabrera came back out after a break and didn’t look any better than he had before. Netz also returned. He didn’t fare well. Neither did anyone else that pitched Wednesday afternoon at the stick, wearing Cubs colors. Rojas apparently angered the Diamondbacks.

I confess that I turned the audiocast off when it got to be 11-5. There was no telecast available. Us old folks need our naps, and opportunities are rare.

There was additional scoring while I dozed.

One of these days we’ll have video.

Miscellaneous:

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune* {$}): Marquee Sports Network reaches agreement with Hulu and Amazon Prime to stream Chicago Cubs games. “Chicago Cubs fans will have more direct-to-consumer streaming options to watch games this year.” Jeff Agrest has more* {$}.
• Mark Feinsand (MLB.com*): The Cubs’ message ahead of 2026 is simple: Win now, worry later. “With more than 40 percent of the roster potentially headed to the open market in the fall, the 2027 Cubs are almost certain to have a drastically different look than this year’s iteration. “
• Daryl Van Schouwen (Chicago Sun-Times* {$}): Cubs pitcher Cade Horton appears to be back on track. “Horton is crafting the look of a staff ace who could one day get the call for Opening Day.” Jordan Bastian has more*.
• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic {$}): Should the Cubs be concerned about Jameson Taillon’s spring training? “If I just sat here and told you I don’t care,” Taillon said, “I’d be lying straight to your face.”
• Brent Maguire (MLB.com*): Untouchable as Venezuela’s closer, Palencia shuts the door with straight heat. “ Venezuelan right-hander struck out nine batters across five hitless innings in 2026 WBC.”
• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation*): Ian Happ underscores that the focus right now is on winning in 2026. “The focus is just so much on this group,” Happ told The Athletic{$}.
• Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball*): Seiya Suzuki’s timeline is relatively clear,once you remove the bad data. “… his sprain is considered mild.”
• Stephen J. Nesbitt (The Athletic {$}): MLB All-Under-25 Team: Paul Skenes, Nick Kurtz, PCA headline an exciting crew. “Baseball has a golden generation of young stars right now, with several standouts replacing players who have aged out of this group.”

Food For Thought:

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

1962
A player who would represent GM Ken Harrelson’s cleverest trade and be a mainstay for some poor late-1980s White Sox teams, Iván Calderón, was born in Fajardo, Puerto Rico. Signed by Seattle at age 17 and in the majors by 22, Calderón’s push for Rookie of the Year (STATS) was derailed by a broken hand. Benched (?) by the Mariners, Hawk swooped in and stole away Iván the Terrible for the low, low price of catcher Scott Bradley in the middle of the next season, 1986.

Calderón responded to the show of confidence by having what would stand as his finest season in the majors in 1987, when he put up 4.2 WAR along with 28 homers and 83 RBIs for the White Sox. He never again approached those numbers in Chicago, but over four-plus seasons (and not counting a career swan song of nine games in 1993), Calderón had 9.0 WAR and 70 homers, hitting .273.

After a bounce-back 1990 (2.6 WAR as a “veteran” on the upstart White Sox), Calderón was swapped to Montreal in a brilliant trade for Tim Raines.

In 2003, Calderón was murdered in a bar in Puerto Rico, in a crime that still has not been solved.

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1970
Future White Sox broadcaster and raconteur Ken Harrelson broke his leg sliding into second base during a spring training game with Cleveland. The break was so bad he was unable to return until September and effectively ended his career.

It also gave us one of the most iconic photos of The Hawk, as crutches did not sully his sartorial splendor:

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1972
The White Sox sold pitcher Rich Robertson back to the Giants. Chicago had picked up the southpaw on February 7, but during an off-day on the Spring Training schedule the White Sox cut their first six players from camp. Robertson, who’d given up five runs over six innings including two homers, was the only veteran in the bunch. He’d return to the Giants but did nothing to hang onto his MLB career, as San Fran cut him after just eight days.

Robertson caught on with Atlanta, starting 20 game in Triple-A over the summer, his last in pro ball.

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1979
White Sox shortstop prospect Harry Chappas appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the headline, “The Littlest Rookie.” 

Chappas was all of 5´3´´, and his career was as short as his height. In three years, Chappas appeared in 72 games with 184 at-bats, one home run, two stolen bases and 15 walks. Despite a horrendous career slash of .245/.307/.283, Chappas was never a negative-WAR player and finished his career (all played with the White Sox) with 0.6 WAR.

Part of the reason for his struggles, from those who knew him, was because of his reluctance to take advice from coaches and teammates. 

Chappas’ one career homer came in 1979 off of Milwaukee’s Bill Travers, who was otherwise enjoying a solid (2.4 WAR) season.

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1981
Maverick White Sox GM Frank “Trader” Lane died in Dallas, at 86.

Lane, who took over the White Sox in 1948 at a time when the franchise was threadbare in both coffers and talent, built the Go-Go White Sox of the 1950s. It was under his oversight the South Siders started a record streak of winning seasons (1951-67). The GM brought in such talent as Nellie Fox, Minnie Miñoso, Chicago Carrasquel, Billy Pierce and Sherm Lollar, more often than not in transactions that were utter steals for the White Sox. Lane was also a metrics innovator.

His GM career extended beyond the White Sox, to more than 400 trades in his career. But he is best known for his White Sox tenure, during which he forged 241 total deals.

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2010
Oney Guillén, White Sox minor league employee, commentary contributor to franchise radio flagship WSCR-AM, and son of manager Ozzie Guillén, was forced to leave the team after continued negative tweets levied against his own club. Oney had been a 36th round pick by the White Sox in 2007.

As for telling Oney he had to quit the team, Ozzie said, “I think that’s the hardest thing I ever did in my life.”

The Cheat had our South Side Sox coverage of the flap.

Many fans in the Yankeeverse aren’t too pleased with Austin Wells after his 2025 campaign. Count this site among them, as Jeremy gave him a C+ in our 2025 Roster Report Cards series.

It’s not hard to see why. After being touted as a bat-first catcher for much of his prospect days, Wells showed considerable offensive promise in his first full season in 2024. Although he endured a truly hellacious September/October slump, to the tune of a 23 wRC+ over 83 plate appearances, Wells still managed to post a 107 wRC+ overall. It wasn’t hard to dream on Wells being able to avoid another late-season swoon and being even better in 2025.

But, as we know all too well, that’s not what happened. In 2025, Wells’ wRC+ sunk to 94. His walk rate shrunk, his strikeouts ballooned, and if it wasn’t for Anthony Volpe and his batting average of .212, Wells’ .219 mark would have been the lowest among all Yankees regulars.

It’s only natural to wonder what went wrong for Wells last year. But digging into the data, what I found wasn’t a broken player, but a batter with a good understanding of who he is, and a great idea of what he wanted to do at the plate. Under the hood, Wells did the important things well in 2025. If he can keep doing those things in 2026, he should enjoy better results.

First, let’s establish Wells’ profile. Wells’ strength lies in his ability to hit for power. He consistently ran ISOs of around and above .200 in the minor leagues, and last year saw him stroke 21 homers in 448 plate appearances, good for a .217 ISO. Per Baseball Savant, his bat speed, average exit velocity, and barrel rate were all comfortably above average last year. The WBC just provided us with a prime example of Wells’ power:

On the other hand, making contact isn’t Wells’ forte. Yes, he managed to post a better-than-league-average K rate of 21 percent in 2024. However, Wells consistently ran K rates higher than that in the minors. Additionally, even though his K rate increased by five percentage points from 2024 to 2025, key contact ability indicators like his swinging strike rate and zone contact rate remained virtually unchanged. All this leads me to believe that Wells’ “true” K rate is somewhere closer to his 2025 mark than 2024. Let’s just say that Wells isn’t going to contend for the batting title anytime soon, or ever for that matter.

So, we’ve established that Wells doesn’t make a ton of contact, but he hits the ball reasonably hard. How, then, can he go back to being an above average hitter?

The key lies in maximizing the value of Wells’ contact by optimizing its distribution. Or, in plain English, pulling the ball in the air. And I’ve got great news: Wells already did that reasonably well in 2025. He just needs to lean into it more. It’s been said many times before, but it’s true so it bears repeating: pulling the ball in the air is good. I’m not saying this just because Wells is a left-handed hitter who calls Yankee Stadium home; this is true for all MLB hitters. Between 2022-2024, pulled air balls (defined as any contact that isn’t a ground ball) resulted in a .547 batting average and a 1.227 slugging percentage across the league. Mind you, this includes pop-ups, which drags down the overall results.

Now, I’m not suggesting that pulling balls in the air is a one-size-fits-all approach. Such an approach comes with risk; swings designed to do that will have holes in them which more level swings won’t. If you don’t have much in the way of raw power to begin with, you might be better off leveraging your contact skills to hunt for singles, like Luis Arraez or Steven Kwan. Conversely, if you have tons of raw power, maybe you shouldn’t fret too much about pulling the ball and just focus on making contact, letting your natural power supply the oomph. Looking at you, Aaron Judge and James Woods.

But Austin Wells fits in neither of those camps. He doesn’t possess the elite contact skills of Arraez or Kwan. He has above average raw power, but nowhere near Judge or Woods levels. In order to be a good hitter, Wells needs to make a conscious effort to make the most of what contact he does make, and that means pulling the ball in the air.

The good news is that Wells seems to be aware of this, and he’s trending in the right direction. Behold this graph:

But I think there’s potential for even more. Though his 2025 pulled airball rate of 22.8 percent was the highest of his career to date, that mark only placed him 85th among 348 players with at least 200 plate appearances last year. That mark can, and should, be higher. For context, the 2025 pulled airball king was Isaac Paredes, who had a 128 wRC+ last year despite a 14th-percentile average exit velocity, with a whopping 38.5 percent clip. Guess who barely came in second with a 38.4 percent mark — none other than Cal Raleigh, who had a pretty good season last year. I’d say that’s a good player to try to emulate.

Wells is already near-elite at avoiding ground balls. 67 percent of his contact was airborne last year, 29th-best in baseball. Given that he hits so many air balls, even a slight increase in his pulled airball rate would pay huge dividends.

Now, I realize this is easier said than done. How exactly should he go about trying to pull the ball in the air more? Should he adjust his timing to catch more balls out in front? Or does the secret lie in making better swing decisions? I don’t know, which is why I’m a blogger and not a hitting coach. What I do know is this: Wells needs to pull the ball in the air to have success at the plate. He already does so at an above-average rate, but by doing it even more, he could be even better. Let’s not forget that the 2025 version of Wells was already a three-win player thanks to his elite framing. If he realizes his offensive potential, we have a perennial All-Star on our hands.

(All data from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.)

We’ve officially hit the part of spring training where spring training has gone on too long. How do I know that you ask? Well Garrett Stubbs hit leadoff and played third base yesterday. Get me to Opening Day.
On to the links

Phillies news:

• Bryce Harper reflected about what the World Baseball Classic and the sport itself means to Jeff Passan in the immediate aftermath of the WBC final.
• Matt Gelb’s latest notes on the spring, including Adolis Garcia’s new stance and a look at looming roster decisions. ($)
• Zack Wheeler is progressing well. Could an actual game be his next step? ($)

MLB News:

• Toronto’s José Berrios won’t be ready for the start of the season, as he was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back.
• J.P. Crawford’s status for Mariners at the start of the year is also in jeopardy, as he received a cortisone shot in his ailing shoulder.
• The Athletic is asking for your help with the Hope-o-meter, their annual surgery of fan optimism for each team. ($)

Hello, friends.

We are now just one week away from Orioles Opening Day. It’s true! Real baseball that counts will be back at Oriole Park at Camden Yards next Thursday afternoon. Hopefully that will be fun. Until then, there are another six exhibition games to get through, including a split-squad day today. Road Orioles play the Yankees at 1:05, while home Orioles play the Pirates at 6:05. The night game will be televised locally on MASN. The day game has only a Yankees broadcast for TV. Neither game has a radio broadcast.

In yesterday’s spring training action, the Orioles played the Blue Jays. They were victorious by a 3-2 score, with each of Ryan Mountcastle and Adley Rutschman recording multi-hit games and Jeremiah Jackson hitting his first homer of spring training. The starting pitcher, Albert Suárez, gave up a run in four innings while striking out five batters in what could be his last big audition to make the roster before camp is over. The O’s improved their Grapefruit League record to 9-11-3 with this win. Four games in Florida remain.

This deep into spring training, it’s around the point where I’d like to start seeing good results from players who are going to be on the roster and getting regular playing time. Some guys are doing pretty well and not giving much reason to worry about them. Others are more in the “Well, it’s a good thing that doesn’t count” category.

These guys who I think are likely to be in the Opening Day lineup are OPSing over .800:

• Adley Rutschman (.880 OPS)
• Samuel Basallo (.946)
• Coby Mayo (1.131)
• Taylor Ward (.960)

Additionally, Gunnar Henderson was a hot hitter in the World Baseball Classic when Team USA’s idiot manager put him in the lineup. He had not been doing well early on before leaving for Team USA. I am choosing to be more excited about the recent results. Tyler O’Neill, who only had 11 PA before joining Team Canada, has also had a split spring with interesting things going on.

Riding the struggle bus for spring with an OPS below .700:

• Colton Cowser (.564)
• Blaze Alexander (.653)
• Heston Kjerstad (.669)
• Leody Taveras (.595)

Kjerstad probably starts in the minors, especially since his bat has cooled. Taveras isn’t here for his bat. Those other guys, though… it’s time to get it going. Cowser is the expected regular center fielder and Alexander is likely to play a lot this season between Jackson Holliday’s and Jordan Westburg’s injury situations. Maybe they’ll start to make us feel a little better about them in the next few days.

Orioles stuff you might have missed

Two more roster cuts gets Orioles camp down to 47 (Baltimore Baseball)
Reliever Jose Espada and pitching prospect Luis De León were reassigned to minor league camp yesterday. Neither was ever likely to make the Opening Day roster, so no surprises there. De León is a guy I’ll be following curiously this season.

O’Neill on WBC experience, spring breakout roster, other Wednesday notes (School of Roch)
The Spring Breakout game is happening on Friday evening in Sarasota, with Orioles prospects playing a team of Red Sox prospects. As you can probably guess, there is no local broadcast of the game.

Three reasons why this could be a special season in Birdland (Steve on Baseball)
Are you buying any of this optimism from Steve Melewski?

Bryan Ramos keeps building sleeper case to make Orioles Opening Day roster (Orioles.com)
If I had thought it worth including Ramos above, he definitely would have made it on the “who’s hot” list. There is a case for him, if the Orioles aren’t worried about the last infielder on the bench being able to play shortstop.

Orioles begin construction on flag court bar that will open midseason (The Baltimore Banner)
There were multiple announcements involving corporate sponsorships yesterday. As those corporations have not paid me to promote them (but if they want to, my rates are reasonable) I will not be doing so at this time. This one is about a beer company sucking up flag court real estate. This one is indistinguishable from some stupid idea John Angelos could have had. Maybe he even did have it. I hope it doesn’t turn out like an eyesore.

Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries

Nothing of particular note has been recorded for this date in Orioles history. That probably won’t change today unless there’s bad news.

There is one lone former Oriole with a birthday today. Happy 52nd birthday to Rocky Coppinger, an Orioles pitcher from 1996-99. He had a 5.68 ERA in 45 games with the team. Young Mark was excited about him once.

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: explorer David Livingstone (1813), O.K. Corral gunfighter Wyatt Earp (1848), Supreme Court Chief Justice Earl Warren (1891), author Philip Roth (1933), and rapper Yung Gravy (1996).

On this day in history…

In 1284, the Principality of Wales was incorporated into the Kingdom of England after the Statute of Rhuddlan was enacted by the king of the time, Henry I, who had conquered Wales following a rebellion over the previous two years.

In 1831, the first recorded bank heist in American history took place as burglars took $245,000 in 1831 dollars from City Bank on Wall Street in New York City. City Bank still operates today as Citibank.

In 1918, Congress established time zones in the United States and granted approval for daylight savings time.

A random Orioles trivia question

I received a book of random Orioles trivia questions for Christmas. I’ll ask a question each time it’s my turn in this space until I run out of questions or forget. The book gives multiple choice answers, but that would just make it too easy for us, so you don’t get them. Here’s today’s question:

Who was the only player to ever record his 500th home run in Memorial Stadium?

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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on March 19. Have a safe Thursday.