Category: Baseball

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Chicago's five-game winning streak came to an abrupt halt on Friday, falling 23-1 in their series opener against St. Louis.

The Cubs are healthy -155 favorites in Game 2, and my Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks believe they're a good value to bounce back with a win.

Who will win Cardinals vs Cubs today: Chicago Cubs (-155)

Kyle Leahy has had a miserable time away from the friendly confines of Busch Stadium. He has posted a 5.35 ERA and recorded an xERA of 5.50 or worse in six of his seven starts. It’s not poor results – the process is even worse.

The Chicago Cubsrank 10th in OPS and eighth in ISO against right-handed pitching over the last month. They’re certainly capable of doing damage against Leahy.

Shota Imanagarecorded xERAs of 3.78 or better in four straight starts, and should help keep the St. Louis Cardinals in check.

Back the Cubs to -170.

COVERS INTEL:Kyle Leahy ranks in the 16th percentile in Pitcher Run Value.

Cardinals vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-110)

The Cubs don’t hit for average, sitting tied with the Angels for 23rd against right-handed pitching this season.

While they do possess power, colder conditions are expected today with the wind blowing in. That will help Leahy limit the long balls.

The Cardinals don’t feature a ton of power against lefties – they’re 21st in ISO – and the conditions will only make it tougher on them against Imanaga.

With power likely limited, these teams will be forced to string together a lot of hits to score in bulk.

I expect a 4-3 type of game. Play the Under to -120.

Cardinals vs Cubs weather

Temperatures are projected to hover around 70 with winds blowing inwards and potential showers. These conditions should hurt the offenses. 

Cardinals vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: St. Louis +135 | Chicago -155
• Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-150) | Chicago -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)

Cardinals vs Cubs trend

Chicago has hit the moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.10 units, 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.

How to watch Cardinals vs Cubs and game info

Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries

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Even with the MLB trade deadline pushed back to August 3 this year, July still represents the time of year when everyone talks about trades. The Phillies’ 40-20 stretch under interim manager Don Mattingly has catapulted them into buying territory as a team with World Series aspirations. Their expectations for playing deep into October are still the same and reinforcements might go a long way.

Under Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies have typically waited until the day of to make trades. They did get Carlos Estevez multiple days before the deadline and Jhoan Duran the day before in back-to-back seasons but they still generally take things down to the wire.

Assuming that, there is roughly a month from the time of this writing until the deadline. So, here are three things to watch for prior to the deadline.

Orioles, Mets, Giants

These three teams entered the season with playoff aspirations. The Baltimore Orioles added Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, and Shane Baz for a bounce-back season but are eight games under .500 on July 3 and five games out of a playoff spot.

Roughly a week ago, Orioles President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias declared his team to be buyers at the trade deadline, and the club has gone 1-4 since. Given those comments, it might take a bit more falling over the next month to get Elias to sell but he could be left with no choice.

If the Orioles are sellers, Taylor Ward would become the best fit for the Phillies outfield at the deadline. He is generally a streaky hitter and an ok defender, but brings a plus eye at the plate. He has not played a single game in right field since 2022 but sliding over for two months is probably not a massive deal. They could slide Brandon Marsh over if needed. Again, it would only be temporary.

There are some red flags with Ward, his pull air rate is down from 17.8% last year to 12.2% and he does not have the raw power to make that work consistently. His bat speed is down over a mile per hour so there might be physical decline. Again, he is only a rental.

The New York Mets season has been pretty brutal. It’s not all terrible but most of it is. They came into the season expecting to make the playoffs and will be clear sellers at the deadline.

They are a match if the Phillies are looking for bullpen help. Luke Weaver has a 2.00 ERA in 36 innings with the Mets after cutting down his fastball usage. He is owed another year with eleven million, which would boost his trade value so it might cost the Phillies too much.

If they are looking for rentals, AJ Minter and Brooks Raley are interesting fits. Minter missed the beginning of the season recovering from tearing his lat last season but has pitched 14 games and hasn’t allowed a run. His velocity is down nearly two miles per hour and he is not striking out nearly as many batters.

Even at 38, Brooks Raley is still suppressing hard contact while getting strikeouts. He is the classic funky left hander that just knows how to get outs.

The only reliever mentioned with true October stuff is Weaver but the others could help fill a left handed void if the Phillies still need it this time next month.

The Giants have been a disaster with Tony Vitello. There might be too many issues to explain in this article. It’s just all bad.

Robbie Ray makes sense if the Phillies are looking for a starting pitcher. He could slot in as their #4 but might help in a bullpen role if needed. Again, there are red flags. Ray is not getting enough strikeouts or swing and miss, is still prone to walks, and allows a lot of hard contact. The Phillies might not be the best fit.

José Alvarado

No one is going to tell you a 6.10 ERA is good or that he is actually having a good season. He is not.

However, it might not be nearly as bad as people think. Alvarado’s BABIP allowed is over 100 points higher than a year ago despite being very good at limiting hard contact and barrels. His 66.9% strand rate would also be the lowest of his career in a season where he pitched 30 innings or more. He is still striking plenty of hitters out, limiting walks, and throwing gas.

This is all to say that their best left handed reliever option this deadline is probably Alvarado figuring it out. Given all of the indicators represent a pitcher that seems to be getting very unlucky, that just doesn’t seem as impossible as you would think.

Over the next month, it would still be good to see some results. If he can go on a heater, which might be the most likely outcome, then it might allow the Phillies some trade deadline flexibility.

Trea Turner

The Phillies might not be able to make a big offensive upgrade at this trade deadline. That hitter might not become available, and even if he does, the Phillies might not have the prospects to get it done.

April and May were not good months for the Phillies offense but June was. Over that month, they ranked tenth in wRC+ and fourth in home runs. Will it last? That probably depends on Trea Turner.

In 380 plate appearances, Turner is hitting .239 with a .653 OPS as an established top-of-the-order hitter in this lineup. He isn’t the only issue in their lineup, but Alec Bohm, Justin Crawford, JT Realmuto, or whoever you want to label a problem can’t get on the heaters like Turner.

That heater might’ve started, Turner is hitting .340 with a .950 OPS over his last 48 plate appearances. If this can continue for the rest of the season, and that seems like a pretty big if, he might indirectly be the big offensive upgrade the Phillies get this trade deadline.

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The Atlanta Braves took the series opener against New York and are heavy -170 favorites to come out on top once again.

The New York Mets own a 7-16 record against left-handed starters. My Mets vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks expect their struggles to continue facing Chris Sale on Saturday, July 4.

Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Atlanta Braves (-170)

Chris Sale has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one start since April 6 and ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitcher Run Value.

He draws a mediocre New York Mets offense that slots 15th or worse in almost every important metric vs. lefties.

Sale has allowed just seven runs over eights starts facing teams ranking outside the Top-15 in ISO against left-handed pitching.

The Atlanta Braves will provide support facing Sean Manaea, who sits in the 23rd percentile in Pitcher Run Value.

Bet the Braves to -185.

COVERS INTEL:Chris Sale's 2.97 xFIP is the lowest mark among all of today's projected starting pitchers.

Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-105)

Non-elite offenses trying to score on Sale has been like pulling teeth. He has only allowed multiple runs only once over eights starts against teams 15th or worse in ISO.

It’ll be a challenge for a shallow Mets lineup to string together hits, and Sale hasn’t conceded a homer in seven consecutive starts.

The Braves possess power but they have hit just .225 against left-handed pitching since June 1. They’re not generating enough traffic to score in bulk.

I see value on the Under and would play it to -115.

Mets vs Braves weather

Temperatures could reach the 90s but the winds are blowing slightly inwards. Small boost to the offenses.

Mets vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: New York +145 | Atlanta -170
• Run line: New York +1.5 (-140) | Atlanta -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-115) | Under 8.0 (-105)

Mets vs Braves trend

New York has hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+7.80 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.

How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info

Mets vs Braves latest injuries

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First place is at stake in the American League Central as the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians meet in Cleveland for the third game in their four-game weekend set.

Cleveland are -133 favorites, having taken the first two games on walk-off hits, taking first in the American League Central Division by a game in the process.

The Guardians have beaten Chicago nine straight in Cleveland. My White Sox vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks call for that streak to hit 10 with a Guardians win.

Who will win White Sox vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (-138)

The Cleveland Guardians have won three straight and five of their last seven, while the Chicago White Sox have dropped the last three and four of six. Cleveland has the No. 8 bullpen in MLB and has gotten stronger, calling up Franco Aleman, who had a 0.32 ERA in Triple-A.

Cleveland starts Parker Messick, who is 7-5, 2.85. Messick's fastball is in the 100th percentile in MLB, and he's in the top quartile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, strikeout rate and exit velo allowed.

The Guardians' offense is averaging 29 points higher than their season batting average this week, including 19 runs over the last three games.

COVERS INTEL:Sean Burke is not in the top third in MLB in any metric. His fastball velocity is just 53rd percentile, and his exit velocity allowed and whiff percentage are all in the bottom half of MLB pitchers.  

White Sox vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-108)

The White Sox start Sean Burke, who is 5-4, 3.69, but has troubling underlying metrics. His fastball is the only pitch above average in MLB, and Cleveland's Brayan Rocchio is one of the top fastball hitters in MLB, hitting .327 with five homers against the pitch.

Burke's walk rate is below average, despite improving it from last season, which is problematic against a Guardians lineup that walked 14 times in the first two games of the series.

Chicago's bats have heated up. They've scored 5.4 runs per game over the last two weeks, an increase of half a run a night over their average.

White Sox vs Guardians weather

There is a heat warning in Cleveland with the wind blowing in. There's also a good chance of a thundershower or two this evening. 

White Sox vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: White Sox +133 | Guardians -138
• Run line: White Sox +1.5 (-163) | Guardians -1.5 (+156)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

White Sox vs Guardians trend

The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Guardians.

How to watch White Sox vs Guardians and game info

White Sox vs Guardians latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

After a big win last night, the Nats celebrate this Independence Day by playing an 11:05 game against the Pirates. They will look to secure a 3rd straight series win on the 250th anniversary of this great country. It will be tough with the Pirates throwing out a hard throwing righty.

The Nats will make a few tweaks to the lineup. Jacob Young was supposed to be back in the lineup, but he was a late scratch. That means it will be the same outfield as last night. Curtis Mead will be back in there at third base. Drew Millas will also be catching in this one. Carson Palmquist will be opening for Zack Littell.

The Pirates are making some changes at the bottom of their lineup Tyler Callihan, who pitched yesterday, will be in the game at first base. Former first overall pick Henry Davis will also be doing the catching here. Besides that, it is a similar lineup to last night. Braxton Ashcraft has had a great season and he will be on the mound in this one.

Game Info:

Stadium: Nationals Park

Time: 11:05 AM EST

TV: Nationals.TV

Radio: 106.7 The Fan

These 4th of July games are always fun, and should be even better with the Nats in the mix. This should be a hotly contested contest on a hot day in DC. Hopefully the Nats can come out on top again. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats!

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (39-45) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Weiss got the start for Sugar Land and went 3.2 innings allowing 3 runs. The offense got on the board in the 6th inning on a Ferreras sac fly. In the 9th inning, Sugar Land rallied for 2 runs on an error and a Spence sac fly to tie the game. Unfortunately the Comets walked it off in the 9th as Sugar Land fell 4-3.

Note: Santa has a 1.85 ERA in Triple-A.

• Cavan Biggio, 1B: 1-for-2, R, BB, SB
• Pascanel Ferreras, 2B: 0-for-2, R, RBI
• Cesar Salazar, C: 1-for-3, R, SB

• Ryan Weiss, RHP: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Trey McLoughlin, RHP: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• J.P. France, RHP: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (36-43) lost 8-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the first inning on an Austin RBI double. They got another run in the third on a Biggers solo home run. Hicks got the start but struggled allowing 6 runs over 5 innings. The pen allowed a couple more runs as the Hooks found themselves down 8-2. The offense got one back in the 9th on Sisneros RBI single but that was it as they fell 8-3.

Note: Schiavone has a .807 OPS in Double-A.

• Cameron Sisneros, 1B: 1-for-4, R, RBI
• Jason Schiavone, C: 2-for-3, 2 BB, 2 SB
• Drew Brutcher, RF: 1-for-4, BB
• Trevor Austin, 2B: 2-for-4, 2 2B, RBI, BB
• Yamal Encarnacion, CF: 1-for-3, BB
• Max Holy, SS: 0-for-3, R, BB
• Jax Biggers, 3B: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI, BB

• James Hicks, RHP: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Ramsey David, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (26-52) won 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Asheville offense got on the board in the first inning on a Moss RBI single. They got another run in the 3rd inning on a Powell RBI single. Smith started for Asheville and had a solid outing allowing 2 runs over 5.2 innings. In the 5th, the offense scored 2 runs on a Powell RBI double and Moss sac fly. The bullpen allowed a run in the 9th but was able to hold on for the 4-3 win.

Note: Moss is hitting .389 for Asheville this season.

• Justin Thomas, LF: 0-for-2, 2 R, BB
• Caden Powell, CF: 2-for-3, 2B, 2 RBI, BB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 2-for-3, 2 RBI

• Parker Smith, RHP: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Conor Steinbaugh, RHP: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Francisco Frias, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (40-38) won 3-0 (BOX SCORE)

Perez started for the Woodpeckers and was dominant tossing 5 scoreless innings with 9 strikeouts. The Woodpeckers got on the board in the 6th inning on a Luciano 3 run home run. Gonzalez relieved Perez and pitched well as he closed out the game with 4 scoreless innings with the Woodpeckers winning 3-0.

Note: Perez has 10 walks to 86 strikeouts this season.

• Anthony Huezo, CF: 1-for-3, R, 2B, SB
• Xavier Neyens, SS: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 1-for-4, R, HR, 3 RBI
• Josh Wakefield, RF: 1-for-3, BB, SB

• Javier Perez, RHP: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K (WIN)
• Rafael Gonzalez, RHP: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K (SAVE)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Colton Gordon – 7:05 CT

CC: Trey Dombroski – 7:05 CT

AV: Nolan DeVos – 5:05 CT

FV: TBD – 5:30 CT

Just as there are players who define eras for teams across major sports, there are also those who help make their moments even more unforgettable from high atop a stadium or arena. Names such as Gary Thorne, Vin Scully, Al Michaels, Bob Costas, Doc Emrick, and many others help add to these pieces of history through their voice, mannerisms, and iconic sayings. And for modern Yankees fans, there is no one more iconic and no one who has helped make more memorable moments than John Sterling.

The best part about Sterling being not just a member of the Yankees family, but a key ingredient to every Yankees game, is that he provided a feeling of warmth to every listener. He brought everyone listening on their radio or watching on their televisions at home into the ballpark, and he treated every Yankees fan, player, coach, and team member with the utmost respect. He was a man who not only received tons of awards and recognition, but he deserved them, and he accepted them with grace and humility.

Today, we celebrate the birth of not just an incredible broadcaster and Yankees icon, but the birth of a man who left an impact on hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people. We miss him dearly.

John (Sloss) Sterling
Born: July 4, 1938 (New York, NY)
Died: May 4, 2026 (Englewood, NJ)
Yankees Tenure: 1989-2024 (radio play-by-play announcer)

Sterling was born in New York and grew up on the Upper East Side. He was up a Yankees fan and listened to original “Voice of the Yankees” Mel Allen call games on the radio, which helped him develop his interest not just in baseball but in becoming a sports broadcaster. After his high school days, he briefly attended Moravian College and Boston University, but returned to New York following his mother’s passing and transferred to the Columbia University School of General Studies. Following his time there, he began his broadcasting career in Wellsville, New York, working at WLSV, where he called football, baseball, and basketball games for the local Wellsville High School.

Sterling then moved to Providence, Rhode Island, before taking a job in Baltimore to broadcast for the NBA’s Baltimore Bullets in 1970-71. In 1971, he returned to WMCA as a full-time employee. He hosted a talk show and also worked calling games for the New York Islanders and New Jersey Nets. He held that play-by-play position from 1970 to 1980, while his talk show—during which he often got to interview the legendary Allen—ended in 1978.

Sterling headed south to Atlanta in 1981 to work for TBS and WSB Radio, where he broadcast games for the Atlanta Hawks and the Atlanta Braves while also hosting a sports talk show through 1989. By that time, his boyhood team got in touch, and his Yankee years began.

From a moment in an elevator in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, where Yankees former owner George Steinbrenner—another memorable July 4th birthday—said to Sterling that he was the person he wanted calling Yankees games, Sterling would go down in history. And it was not just for being part of some incredible Yankees title runs and around some of the best teams in MLB history (including the best team in baseball history by record in 1998), but also for his consistency in the booth. Sterling would sit in the radio booth calling Yankees games for the next 35 seasons.

Over those 35 seasons at the helm of the Yankees broadcast booth, Sterling shared it with a handful of announcing partners. Former major leaguer Jay Johnstone, was his first for the 1989 and 1990 seasons, and broadcaster Joe Angel stepped in for 1991. Then came in a young and spry Michael Kay, the current Yankees TV play-by-play announcer for the YES Network, from 1992 to 2001. Formerly a beat writer, Kay attributes much of his success behind the mic to the lessons he learned in the booth with Sterling, and he would often host Yankees events in the present day with his former mentor, including Old-Timers’ Day.

SportsCenter alum Charley Steiner was his next partner from 2002 to 2004 before Steiner moved on to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and in 2005, in came Suzyn Waldman, who is a legend in her own right. They were on the call together the longest, until his (somewhat) abrupt retirement in 2024. Sterling and Waldman became a dynamic duo in the booth and, most importantly, they became the best of friends, which every fan tuning in could hear and see. They told incredible stories together, both about their individual and joint experiences off the field and, of course, about their experiences together in the depths of major league ballparks, talking to players, coaches, managers, and staff members of yesteryear teams. Their bond grew over time, giving every Yankees fan a way to feel included in their adventures as well.

All in all, Sterling ended up calling 5,060 consecutive Yankees games, which included every game of the entirety of Derek Jeter’s 20-year career, before the streak ended seven years ago today on July 4, 2019. He fell ill and missed three games the Yankees played against the Tampa Bay Rays, but it gave everyone a chance to see just how incredible Sterling had been for so long.

Over his time calling the Yankees (and even dating back to his early days in New York calling the Islanders and then with the Hawks in Atlanta), Sterling was best known for his catchphrases, particularly after home runs. He’d start every home run call with “It is high! It is far! It is gone!” And then he would lead into a signature tagline for every player. Older fans of the Yankees will remember, “An A-bomb for A-Rod!” “Bern, baby, Bern!” and so many others, while newer fans could hear, “A Judgian Blast,” “Gio Urshela, the most happy fella,” “Yes, inDidi,” through recent years.

Everyone knew it was coming, but every time seemed to feel like the first.

A successful day for the Yankees wasn’t over until Sterling belted “Yankees win! Theeeeeee Yankees win!”

Sterling began the 2024 season in his familiar spot, but he quickly regretted his decision not to step away at last. The travel over half a year was just too much to bear for someone in his eighties. So on April 15th, he announced his retirement, effective immediately. New York then honored Sterling in a pregame ceremony on April 20th. He then called two innings of a game on August 20th against Cleveland, which was due to a t-shirt giveaway celebrating the 20th anniversary of Sterling and Waldman working together in the radio booth. The day was planned before Sterling’s departure from the booth months prior, so he felt it was only right to come back and call a bit of the contest.

Perhaps that sparked a desire for a mini-comeback. The following Thursday, it was revealed that Sterling was discussing a potential postseason return before a final retirement. And it happened! On September 5th, Sterling confirmed he would return to the booth for the final homestand and the playoffs, including up to the 2024 World Series — where he would broadcast for the last time. It was a wonderful treat to have him on the call again, especially in big moments like Juan Soto’s pennant-winning homer in Cleveland.

Sterling made his final broadcast on October 30, 2024, in Game 5 of the World Series, when the Yankees lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers and he officially signed off for the final time. He occasionally popped back on the air for radio specials, but aside from that, his long career was over.

Sterling’s legacy amongst baseball and the Yankees earned him a lifetime of awards, including 12 sports Emmys (two for a biography-style television program called Yankeeography), multiple nominations for the Ford C. Frick Award by the National Baseball Hall of Fame, and he was awarded the Pride of the Yankees Award at the team’s annual Welcome Home dinner. It’s a true shame that Sterling won’t be around to see it, but hopefully he’ll one day get a plaque in Monument Park as well, just like Allen.

The number of incredible baseball moments that Sterling called over his tenured career seems incalcuble. He was a one-of-a-kind broadcaster with a one-of-a-kind spirit both for life and for baseball. He passed away on May 4, 2026, but he continues to be honored by Yankees and baseball fans alike inside and outside of the broadcast booth. His work will live on forever in the hearts and minds of everyone around the game, and the baseball world was blessed to have him be a part of such important pieces of the game’s history.

Happy birthday, Mr. Sterling! The first birthday after someone’s passing is always hard, and we send our best to his family on this day.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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The New York Yankees are -158 home favorites against the Minnesota Twins, and I’m laying the moneyline rather than chasing the run line.

Zebby Matthews’ barrel and air-ball issues line up poorly against New York’s elevated power profile, while Brendan Beck’s first career start keeps Minnesota live enough to push this total Over.

Here are my Twins vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, July 4.

Who will win Twins vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-158)

I’m backing the New York Yankees because Zebby Matthews’ biggest weakness runs into their biggest offensive strength.

After breaking through the slump yesterday, I'm more comfortable holding them to their regular-season priors too.

This profile looks like a matchup we’ve seen so often against New York: a starting pitcher with a high barrel rate problem that the Yankees expose.

Matthews enters this matchup with one in the bottom 5th percentile of the MLB. A metric the Yankees still top the league in.

Back the Yankees with confidence up to -165.

COVERS INTEL: Minnesota’s 39.4% ground-ball rate is below MLB average, giving the Twins more lift potential against Beck’s early hard-contact issues.

Twins vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-125)

Both lineups have a clear team-level path to damage. Matthews allows too much lift, and the Yankees’ offense is built to punish that with an above-average fly-ball rate, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage.

The Minnesota Twins can answer against Brendan Beck. The sample size is super small for the young arm, who makes just his second appearance of the season and first career start; however, he allowed some loud contact in his first outing with an average exit velocity of 97.8 mph.

The Twins, who have a near-14 % barrel rate, can expose that. Play to 10.

Twins vs Yankees weather

Twins vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Minnesota +160 | New York -158
• Run line: Minnesota +1.5 | New York -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5

Twins vs Yankees trend

The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 30 games at home (+0.55 Units / 2% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Yankees.

How to watch Twins vs Yankees and game info

Twins vs Yankees latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals, July 4, 2026, 11:05 a.m. ET

The Pittsburgh Pirates are celebrating the 4th of July by facing off against the Washington Nationals in the nation’s capital. It’s an early start for both teams to give fans an early and bright start to their Independence Day festivities.

Braxton Ashcraft is taking the mound for the Pirates. He’s won his last three starts, including his most recent appearance on June 29 against the Philadelphia Phillies, where he pitched six innings and gave up five hits and five runs. The Pirates’ offense had his back in the 11-7 victory.

He pitched against the Nationals at home on April 16, going 5.2 innings while giving up five hits and two runs in an 8-7 loss in 10 innings.

Zack Littell is getting the ball for the Nationals in the middle game of the series. Littell won his last start on June 28 against the Baltimore Orioles. He pitched five innings, giving up three hits and two runs in a 6-4 victory at Camden Yards. The Nats are 9-8 this season when Littell pitches, and he has won seven of 13 decisions he has been a part of.

If the Pirates play like they have in Ashcraft’s last three starts, they should be able to walk away with a win.

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.

Broadcast: KDKA AM/FM, Sportsnet Pittsburgh

Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft (8-3, 3.33 ERA) vs. Zack Littell (7-6, 5.29 ERA)

BD community, chime off in the comments section below.

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Today's MLB same-game parlay predictions feature various stars. 

I'm eyeing Rafael Devers to stay hot at the plate, while Sonny Gray will dominate the Los Angeles Angels. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Jul 4. 

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Game	SGP Odds
SFG vs COL	+475
BOS vs LAA	+236
SD vs LAD	+550

Giants at Rockies SGP: Devers Stays Hot

Rafael Devers has been torching baseballs lately. He's smacked four home runs across his last six games while averaging an elite 62.5% hard hit rate and 31.3% barrel rate.

Devers will be looking forward to tonight's matchup against the Colorado Rockies as he faces Tomoyuki Sugano. The righty has allowed 2.17 HR/9 across the last month, and the ball flies in Denver. 

Robbie Ray, meanwhile, takes the ball for the San Francisco Giants. He's compiled a 3.20 FIP across his last five appearances, and the left-hander hasn't allowed an earned run in three consecutive starts. He'll shut down the red-hot Rockies. 

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports Bay Area, Rockies.TV

See full analysis of this game in our Giants vs. Rockies predictions.

Red Sox at Angels SGP: The Sonny Gray Show

Sonny Gray has been the Boston Red Sox's most reliable starter this season. The right-hander owns a 9-1 record, and he's compiled an impressive 2.48 xERA across his last five outings. 

Gray has cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in three of his previous four appearances. The righty is up against a Los Angeles Angels lineup that is hitting .214 over the last week while posting a horrible 51 wRC+. Gray is also racking up the Ks, striking out 20 in his last two starts. 

The Red Sox will face the struggling Sam Aldegheri, who has allowed 12 earned runs across his last three appearances. Boston will capitalize on his inability to limit hard contact, and Gray will toss a gem. 

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, ABTV

See full analysis of this game in our Red Sox. Angels predictions.

Padres at Dodgers SGP: Yamamoto Bounces Back

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 3.53 FIP over his last two starts, and he did allow three earned runs to the San Diego Padres last week. However, prior to his last two starts, the Los Angeles Dodgers ace cashed the Under in earned runs surrendered in five consecutive appearances.

Over the last month, his ERA sits at 2.22, and he owns a 2.08 ERA across two starts this season against the Padres.  

Freddie Freeman is batting .370 over his last seven games while posting a 41.7% hard-hit rate. He has three multi-hit games over the last week, and the pitching matchup is favorable.

Griffin Canning has been getting torched, with opponents collecting a 49.1% hard-hit rate against him over the last month. Freeman is also hitting .314 off righties. 

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Padres.TV, SportsNet LA

See full analysis of this game in our Padres vs. Dodgers predictions.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Meet the Mets

A two-run homer from Juan Soto was close to the only moment of joy for the Mets last night, as they fell to the Braves 5-3 in the series opener in Atlanta. Christian Scott took the loss after giving up three runs on two homers in four innings of work, and A.J. Minter and Kodai Senga both surrendered homers as well out of the bullpen.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, NY Post, Daily News, North Jersey

Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor both downplayed reports of a fractured relationship between the two of them (the former doing so with a rather interesting analogy).

Last night saw A.J. Ewing move to the leadoff spot for the first time in his major league career.

The plan for Senga remains uncertain after another decent relief outing last night.

Luke Weaver has been on quite a remarkable run for the Mets.

The Athletic wrote about the Mets’ priorities at the trade deadline as they inch closer to selling.

Andy Green’s history as farm director can hopefully assist him in his new role as interim manager.

Around the National League East

The Nationals were unbothered by the tripe digit degree weather in DC last night, as they slugged their way to a 9-5 win over the Pirates.

Count the Marlins in as another team who hit bombs aplenty last night, as five home runs propelled them to a 12-5 victory over the Athletics.

The Braves have added a former MVP to their organization, inking Andrew McCutchen to a minor league deal.

Bryce Harper is looking pretty elite again these days.

Around Major League Baseball

MLB issued their monthly awards for June yesterday, with Junior Caminero and Pete Crow-Armstrong receiving Player of the Month for their respective leagues.

Several teams in the National League are facing questions heading into next month’s trade deadline.

The Yankee saw a couple players return from the injured list while also placing Carlos Rodón on the IL due to left elbow inflammation.

Aroldis Chapman has now recorded more strikeouts as a reliever than any pitcher in MLB history.

Shohei Ohtani will sit today after leaving last night’s game with a right biceps injury.

The Mariners have placed Julio Rodriguez on the 7-day concussion IL after he was struck by a ball in the back of the head.

Padres pitcher Randy Vásquez has also been placed on the IL after getting struck in the ankle by a comebacker and fainting on his way to get an X-ray.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Vasilis Drimalitis previewed the Independence Day weekend series in Atlanta.

Joe Sokolowski provided the latest installment of This Week in Mets Quotes.

This Date in Mets History

The Mets began a game that would end the following morning after nineteen innings on this date in 1985.

The kids are celebrating Independence Day, so let’s see how they did last night.

Rochester 11, Lehigh Valley 5

So yeah, the Phillies are in trouble if someone in the rotation gets hurt, aren’t they? Kolby Allard allowed seven runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings for the IronPigs, dooming their game from the beginning. It wasted solid efforts at the plate from Dylan Moore (3-4, 2 2B, 3B, 2 R) and Otto Kemp (2-4, R) too. The lack of pitching depth has been an issue for a few years as the team has failed to bring in those starting pitchers on minor league deals in the winter thanks to their having so few opportunities at the big league level. This year it is really starting to show, so we’ll have to continue to hope for continued health.

Of note, Brad Keller had his first rehab appearance last night and it didn’t go great. He allowed two runs in his inning of work and didn’t strike anyone out. His fastball topped at 96.9 mph. He only got one swing and miss.

New Hampshire 12, Reading 4

Alex Binelas (3-4, 2 2B, RBI) and Raylin Heredia (2-4, HR, RBI) led the offense on the evening, but it was the same as the IronPigs. The pitching was a mess, particularly the late game relief and New Hampshire was able to pull away. Braydon Tucker allowed five runs on nine hits in 3 1/3 innings to start, but it was Tristan Garnett and Aaron Combs, allowing a combined seven runs in two innings of relief in the eighth and ninth innings, that salted the game away.

Rome 1, Jersey Shore 0

This game was shortened by a power outage that caused the game end after six innings, but the story was Ramon Marquez. He struck out nine over five innings, only giving up two hits and the one run scored in the game. The offense did nothing, so let’s focus in on Marquez.

That changeup is illegal in most states. The team seems to have really found something in Marquez, a pitcher climbing the ranks of many Phillies lists. How far up he goes remains to be seen, but don’t be surprised to see his name popping up in trade rumors this year. Maybe he doesn’t have ace upside, but this looks like a quality arm that can lead a trade package for something significant.

Ft. Myers 4, Clearwater 3

A clean sweep of the Phillies affiliates, the Threshers got home runs from Griffin Burkholder (3-5, HR, RBI) and Nathan Humphreys (2-5, 2B, HR, RBI) on offense, but not much in the way of starting pitching to hold on for a victory. Ryan Degges led up three runs in two innings of work to start the game to put the Threshers in a hole that they could not climb out of. Of note, Zuher Yousuf had four innings of relief and allowed only three baserunners while striking out five.

Hello friends, and happy Fourth of July!

The Mariners dropped a snoozer to the Blue Jays last night, falling 2-0 thanks to a dazzling performance from Jays starter Dylan Cease.

The Mariners have the chance to do the most patriotic thing of all time today and vanquish the invading Canadians. Do you believe the Logan Gilbert-Emerson Hancock piggyback can get it done?

In Mariners news…

• Max Ellingsen continued his MLB Draft profiles with a close look at Texas Tech outfielder Logan Hughes.

Around the league…

• The Yankees have placed left-hander Carlos Rodón on the injured list with elbow inflammation.
• Orioles closer Ryan Helsley is also headed to the IL with elbow discomfort.
• Royals lefty Kris Bubic was shut down from his rehab with shoulder soreness.
• Padres right-hander Randy Vásquez hit the injured list after taking a comebacker to the ankle.
• The Braves have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen.
• Now at the halfway point of the season, Bradford Doolittle at ESPN checked in on the major awards races for both leagues.
• Kiley McDaniel, Jeff Passan, and Bradford Doolittle redrafted the 2023-2025 MLB drafts in one big mega-draft.

Anders’ pick…

• Australian officials are warning residents not to interact with TikTok sensation Neil the Seal, the first male elephant seal to visit Tasmania in years — who is also a massive jerk.

After a game like this, I think it’s important to start with the big picture. There are only four teams with more wins than the Cubs. The Cubs are on pace for 90 wins. Deep breath and flush.

This loss doesn’t count extra and neither does Wednesday’s blowout win. Just two random, crazy games in a season full of crazy outcomes. First team in history to win by 15+ and then lose by 15+. Wacky.

Suffice is to say that the Cub defense isn’t a magic wand for David Peterson. Unsurprising for a guy who became available on one for one swap for a prospect that wasn’t creating a lot of buzz. I don’t think this means that Peterson can’t help this Cub team, particularly while so much of its regularly scheduled pitching staff is inhabiting the injured list. If you thought he was some panacea, then today was sobering. If you thought he was another guy who can pitch an occasional really good game and might get some boost from a strong defense, then throw this game out. If you aren’t a really elite pitcher, odds are you aren’t getting away with your clunkers.

Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are a different team when they jump ahead early. We’re seeing a lot of that in Cub games in general. There is a lot of benefit to getting ahead early. That is the fun thing, even with the changes of the modern game. There is still an enormous benefit to having the better starting pitcher. There are more dynamics to the modern game the way it is played. A superb bullpen can steal a close game. A lousy bullpen can undo all of the hard work your starter did. To be fair, those things were always true, but they are amplified in the modern game because of just how many innings bullpens cover now.

All of the change in the game, and a three-run homer in the second, is still a sizable problem. Six runs over three is nearly insurmountable and the game was over after four. After the Cubs batted in the sixth, no play had any WPA. After the bottom of the fourth, no play was worth more than .001. Masyn Winn’s homer to make it 11-0 was that last play worth any real value at .010. And even that is very little value.

So basically, nothing to see here. Move along.

Three Positives:

• Pedro Ramirez came off the bench and had a triple and scored the only run.
• Alex Bregman had two hits and drove in that only run. One of the hits was a double.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong had a double before leaving this one early.

Game 88, July 3: Cardinals 17, Cubs 1 (49-39)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Carson Kelly (.011). 1-4
• Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.006). 0-3, BB
• Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.004). 1-3, 2B

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: David Peterson (-.369). 3.2 IP, 23 BF, 9 H, 3 BB, 10 ER, 3 K (L 1-1)
• Goat: Ian Happ (-.043). 0-3
• Kid: Alex Bregman(-.027). 2-4, 2B, RBI

WPA Notes: Ramirez does finish fourth, but again there was basically no leverage by the time he gets in there. WPA registered 87 plays and 24 of them had a WPA score of .000.

WPA Play of the Game: Nathan Church’s three-run homer with two outs in the second. (.263)

Cubs Play of the Game: David Peterson struck out Jordan Walker with a runner on third and one out, the game scoreless in the first. (.057)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 87 Winner: Dansby Swanson received 168 out of 228 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +18
• Carson Kelly +14.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Trent Thornton +12.5
• Michael Busch +12
• Dansby Swanson -9
• Edward Cabrera/Seiya Suzuki -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Caleb Thielbar -13

Up Next: Game two of the three-game weekend set. Shōta Imanaga (5-6, 4.30) starts for the Cubs. He’s just 1-2 with a 5.67 over his last seven starts (39.2 IP). He was pretty good last time though, against the Padres to start this homestand. Kyle Leahy (6-4, 4.09) starts for the cardinals. He’s 1-1 with a 4.29 over his last seven (35.2). He was also good in his last one, a start against the Marlins in St. Louis. Leahy hasn’t started on the road since June 12 when he allowed four runs over five innings in Minnesota. He held the Cubs to one run over 4.1 innings back on May 30.

Win a game, keep some positive momentum going. Blah, blah, blah. Momentum. Starting pitching. You go we go Shōta, ok? Doesn’t have the same ring, but still true.

The San Diego Padres’ dirty little secret is Jackson Merrill’s steady decline at the plate, and the organization avoids talking about his struggles. It is tough to suggest Merrill is mired in a slump when his batting average has dropped 81 points since the All-Star’s rookie season in 2024.

Much of his decline stems from the Padres’ mismanagement, which created several bad habits that ruined his sweet swing.

Is Souza the problem?

2026 has brought a new hitting coach, Steven Souza Jr., into the fold. He has a different approach to hitting from the team’s previous coach, Victor Rodriguez. Souza emphasizes pulling more pitches for extra-base hits. 

The move from Rodriguez has caused an informational overload for Merrill at the plate. At times, he looks tentative, as Merrill is recognizing pitches too late to make solid contact. The regression is alarming, as the Friars need to re-evaluate whether he should go back to his old approach.

The Friars failed to hire a hitting coach capable of enhancing Merrill’s natural strengths as a hitter. In his rookie season, he excelled at hitting to all fields. But Souza’s approach has eroded those skills. 

Now, Merrill is attempting to pull every pitch, which results in either a sky-high pop-up that barely travels out of the infield or an easy groundball to the second baseman. Souza has failed to help him make the necessary adjustments to counter the pitching sequence during an at-bat.

It is time to hire a hitting coach who specializes in repairing swings. If not, the damage may be irreversible. 

Stammen backs his coaching staff

Padres skipper Craig Stammen backs his hitting coach. But at some point, someone has to take the blame for the offensive struggles this season. 

In Merrill’s case, no talk of him moving down the batting order. Team management is confident their young star will turn his season around.

Unfortunately, we’re in July, past the halfway point in the season, and Merrill’s past hitting prowess seems light-years away.

Chasing too many bad pitches

If we take a deep dive into his plate appearances, Merrill has decent power numbers. He has 25 extra-base hits with a .211 batting average, as Merrill will outpace his power production from a year ago.

However, there are concerns with his approach during at-bats. Merrill’s chase rate is poor at 34.2%, and his strike rate (24.9%) is the highest of his professional career. The Friar Faithful have seen too much of him swinging wildly as the ball tails outside the strike zone. 

Fortunately, Merrill’s hitting slump has not impacted his stellar defense. He is still considered one of the best to patrol centerfield in the game today.

The blame for this mess lies at the feet of Padres President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller, who has been too stubborn to recognize that his managerial choice is way over his head. Failing to hire a proven major league manager has stunted Merrill’s growth. 

Stammen’s coaching staff is the butt of the Friar Faithful’s jokes. The team’s loyal fan base has lost faith in the coaching staff’s ability to turn Merrill back into a top run-producer.

The first order of business is to hire a coach to work with him. It is never too late to fix Merrill and get the talented outfielder back to hitting the baseball with more authority.