It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch.
The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages.
Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started.
Most of the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app (which he's now carried over into the regular season) that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also features a great strike zone plot, which allows you to see how the entire arsenal plays together.I'll also use Alex Chamberlain's awesome work with his Pitch Leaderboard.
Matthew PouliotBrandon Woodruff - Milwaukee Brewers (Season debut, New Cutter, New Sweeper)
After almost two years away due to injury, Woodruff made his first start of the season on Sunday. (If you'd like to read more about Woodruff's recovery and his mindset going into the start,I wrote an article after speaking with him at Citi Field last week.) His debut went better than many people expected, with Woodruff allowing just one run on two hits in six innings while striking out eight. Let's dig into his pitch mix data to see how close to vintage Brandon Woodruff this start was.
Well, for starters, his four-seam velocity is down. Not that we should be surprised by that, coming off shoulder capsule surgery. However, the numbers are a bit misleading. He sat at 93.2 mph, which is down from 95.8 in 2023; however, he threw harder as the game went on. Many of his fastballs in the third and fourth and fifth innings were around 94 mph and he even humped some up to 96 mph, so perhaps his true average was closer to 94 mph, which is a bit better. The four-seam fastball still had elite command and tremendous 18.6 inches of Induced Vertical Break (iVB), which makes the pitch seem to "rise" as it approaches the plate. That helped it generate a handful of called strikes and whiffs. We do like to see that as a foundational pitch.
Woodruff also commanded his sinker well, locating it not just inside to righties but also getting tons of called strikes on backdoor sinkers that looked like four-seamers off the plate away and then broke back in. It's not a pitch that's going to get tons of whiffs, but having multiple fastball variations is important in baseball today since hitters are all trained to crush high velocity four-seam fastballs.
Which leads us to yet another pitch, since Woodruff added a third fastball type with a new cutter. In my article from last week, I mentioned that Woodruff had split his old slider into a cutter and a sweeper. He used the cutter more often on Sunday, throwing it 90 mph with 2.4 inches of glove-side movement and 14.2 inches of vertical movement, which means that it only dropped 19.7 inches when also factoring in gravity.That’s above-average from a movement standpoint; although, the cutter was not totally effective on Sunday with no whiffs and a 15% CSW. It might be nice as a piece to keep batters from sitting on any one of his fastball variations, but it's not going to be a plus pitch in its own right. Still, with Woodruff battling back from a shoulder injury, having multiple pitches to keep hitters off balance and the barrel of the bat is a good thing.
Woodruff only threw his sweeper five times on Sunday, but it was 81.2 mph with nearly four inches of vertical break (38.3 inches when factoring in gravity) and 10.2 inches of horizontal sweep. He had a 60% zone rate, which is nice, inducing one whiff and two foul balls. He only threw the pitch to righties, which makes sense, throwing three of them in an 0-0 count and two of them in two-strike counts. Perhaps he's still getting comfortable with the feel of the pitch and will work it in more in the coming starts, but it seems like he'll focus on the four-seam, sinker, and cutter to righties and mix in the sweeper to keep hitters off balance.
At the end of the day, I think this start is a solid case for Woodruff's floor. He's a veteran starter who knows how to pitch and now has a deeper arsenal to work with. His stuff is still good, but it's not what it was before his injury, so he can use that deeper arsenal to sequence effectively, keep hitters guessing, and induce weak contact. I don't think the strikeout numbers will carry over against teams that are not the Marlins, but this start made me more optimistic about Woodruff as a streamer in shallow leagues and a solid hold in deeper formats, where he should at least avoid many true blow-up outings.
Charlie Morton - Baltimore Orioles (Curveball usage, Sinker locations)
It was a pretty brutal start to the season for Charlie Morton. He posted a 10.36 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in his first six starts of the year and was moved to the bullpen by the beginning of May. However, with Baltimore battling myriad injuries, Morton was back into the rotation on May 26th, and since then, has posted a 2.97 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 44/11 K/BB ratio across 36.1 innings. That has ranked him 15th in K-BB%, 16th in SIERA, and 18th in xFIP among qualified starters over that span.
So what is he doing that's any different?
The most immediate change you can see is a nearly 10% increase in curveball usage at the expense of both his four-seam fastball and cutter. We know where this is going since Morton's curveball has been his bread and butter for his entire career. Morton leaning on his best pitch more is certainly something we can get behind. You can also see in Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard below that the specs on Morton's curveball in April were off.
As the season has gone on, Morton's curveball has gotten closer to the 82.3 mph velocity it was back in his strong 2023 campaign. He has also reduced the horizontal movement and gotten it closer to the 14.3 inches that he had back in the same 2023 season.
Morton has also improved the locations of his curveball in this most recent stretch. In his first stint in the Orioles' rotation, Morton threw his curve low in the zone 79% to righties but just 61% to lefties. He also kept the ball gloveside to lefties, so inside, 34% of the time. Over the last seven starts, he's kept his curveball low in the zone against lefties 70% of the time and thrown it gloveside 45% of the time. That's a 9% increase in low location and an 11% increase in gloveside curves to lefties. It should not surprise you that the curve saw a massive jump in swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch leads to a strikeout. Morton's curve had a 12% PutAway rate to lefties in his first stint in the rotation, but that has exploded to 26.6% in his last seven starts.
His curve locations have improved to righties as well. Morton did a good job of keeping the pitch low to righties earlier in the year, but he's now spreading the ball around the strike zone more. He was exclusively using the curve on the outer third in his first stint in the rotation, but he's now attacking righties with the curve on the inside as well, which has also led to a big increase in swinging strike rate and PutAway Rate. Morton has been successful throughout his career when his curve is working, so it's not a surprise that finding his curve again has led to another level of success.
We should highlight one other change from Morton: using his sinker down in the zone more often to righties. We saw above that his sinker usage is up a bit, while his cutter and four-seam usage has dropped, but he has also thrown his sinker low in the zone to righties 10% more often in this second stint in the rotation and gone inside 5% more often as well. That has been a big reason why the Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) allowed on the sinker fell from 47% early in the season to 37% in the last seven starts while keeping the SwStr% the same. Morton has been using the sinker more early in the count to righties, which has helped him get ahead or get weak contact, and then he's able to go to the curve for strikeouts.
All of this feels earned. It's all on the back of the curveball, but that means that Morton will remain a viable streamer in fantasy leagues as long as his curveball is humming. We've seen the veteran have that pitch working for entire seasons, so it's not crazy to assume he can keep this going for a while. However, as soon as you see that curveball command start to falter or the swings and misses on it dry up, you should cut bait. There's just not enough else in the arsenal to keep him fantasy relevant.
Joe Boyle - Tampa Bay Rays (New Splitter, New Slider shape, New Role)
There might not be a trendier starting pitcher in fantasy baseball right now than Joe Boyle. He intrigued people with the Athletics last year due to his plus raw stuff, but he could never find the strike zone. The Rays traded for him and revamped his pitch mix, which led to a dominant season in Triple-A, with a 1.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 96/31 K/BB ratio in 73 innings. We had been waiting for him to get another chance in the rotation, and it seems like that is happening now as he returned on Sunday to piggy-back with Drew Rasmussen and threw five shutout innings with two hits, one walk, and seven strikeouts.
So, what is this new version of Joe Boyle, and is it useful in fantasy leagues?
Well, for starters, Boyle has ditched his curve and his sweeper and added in a "splinker," which is the split-finger/sinker hybrid that you see show up above as a splitter. This was part of the larger change the Rays made with Boyle, where they removed some of his biggest moving pitches due to his inability to find the strike zone. They added the sprinkler because it has less movement than the typical split-finger fastball and is easier to command. Boyle's splinker is 92.8 mph with nearly 16 inches of arm-side movement (dive) and only 29 inches of drop when you also account for gravity. Most importantly, Boyle throws it in the zone 33% of the time with a 53% strike rate, which are both about average for a splitter.
Given that it moves down and away from lefties, it makes sense that Boyle uses that pitch more often to lefties (24.5% usage) rather than righties (12% usage). Against lefties, the splinker has even higher zone rates and strike rates while also posting a 26% SwStr%. It's a pitch he throws 58% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties and has a 36% PutAway Rate, which is tremendous. However, as you can see from the pitch chart below (light blue dots), he's a little less consistent with the pitch against righties. Given its action, Boyle is likely concerned about hitting right-handed hitters if the splinker bites too hard inside, so he spiked more than a couple of them into the dirt on Sunday.
However, it doesn't matter much if Boyle's splinker is not as impactful to righties because his slider carves them up. This season, his slider is two mph harder, up to 90.3 mph, with one inch less horizontal break and three inches less drop. When you add in gravity, his slider has only 31 inches of vertical break, down from nearly 37 inches last year. His zone rates aren't much better on the pitch this year as opposed to last year; however, the harder and tighter slider is a pitch that can be more successful anywhere in the strike zone, which is what the Rays wanted for Boyle, who still has inconsistent command. With his old slider, he needed to be more careful to keep it low in the zone, but this new slider is a pitch that Boyle is throwing up in the zone more often to righties and using inside and outside, likely because he doesn't have to be as precise with his command.
He throws his slider 37.4% of the time to righties, as opposed to 10% of the time to lefties. The slider has a nearly 21% SwStr% to righties, so it's no surprise that it's his primary two-strike pitch, using it 47% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, with a 31% chase rate and 44% PutAway rate in those situations. That's elite. However, those usages mean that he's basically a two-pitch pitcher to righties and a two-pitch pitcher to lefties, with a third pitch to each that is inconsistent, and he'll throw 10% of the time. That's not a huge margin for error.
The last change, as you can see from Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard, is that Joy Boyle dropped his arm angle this year. Like, A LOT.
That's a nearly 13-degree drop in arm angle (closer to sidearm), which is a huge amount. That may have been just a more comfortable slot for Boyle, but it also could be Tampa Bay trying to create more manageable shapes on his pitches. We talked about his two secondaries, but the lower arm slot has also led to far more horizontal movement (inside to righties) on his four-seam fastball and less vertical movement. Given his lowered release point, even with the decrease in iVB, Boyle's attack angle has become even flatter, which makes the fastball seem to rise more as it approaches home plate. That has helped him create a nearly 4% increase in SwStr% on his four-seam fastball.
However, more importantly, the zone rate on his four-seam fastball has gone from 45% last year to 55% this year, which is slightly above average, and his overall strike rate has improved from 54% to 65%. Boyle only has three pitches, so he uses the four-seamer 57% of the time to righties and 64% of the time to lefties. He needs to be able to command that pitch in the zone because he has nothing else he throws consistently for strikes. It seems like this arm angle change has helped him with the four-seam fastball, and if you look at the pitch plot above, you can see that most of the four-seamers (red dots) are right around the strike zone. That's crucial for him.
All of this has me excited about Boyle, as does his role as a follower. He now doesn't need to go five innings or dominate to secure a win. If Drew Rasmussen has 2-3 good innings to start the game, Boyle will be in a good spot to only have to pitch four solid innings to get a win. That's the perfect role for him because he is still a three-pitch pitcher (really two pitches to hitters of each handedness) with average command of his fastball and inconsistent command of his secondaries. We need to keep that in mind. Boyle is better; there's no doubt about that, but he is not all of a sudden a pitcher with good command. He's a pitcher with a narrow arsenal of elite swing-and-miss stuff and average command. That's going to work a lot of the time, but there will be performances where he can't get ahead as consistently with the fastball, and the overall results will be less exciting.
Eric Lauer - Toronto Blue Jays (Cutter Shape/Usage, Slider Usage)
Eric Lauer is an interesting story. He's been a solid MLB pitcher during his career, posting a 4.17 ERA and 22% strikeout rate in 647.2 career innings. However, he was out of MLB last year, pitching 34 2/3 innings in Korea with a pedestrian 4.93 ERA in seven starts. You would be forgiven for assuming that was the end of Lauer's MLB relevance, but since June 1st, Lauer is 26th in baseball in K-BB% among starters with at least 20 innings pitched. Over those five starts, he has a 3.24 ERA (3.47 SIERA), 1.16 WHIP, and 20.2% K-BB%. Since Lauer has only made seven starts this season, I decided to compare what he's doing this year to what we saw from him in Milwaukee back in 2023, before leaving for Korea.
What immediately stands out is the shift in cutter usage. Lauer was using the cutter far more often before heading to Korea and has now dialed back on the cutter while increasing his slider and changeup usage. The cutter itself is slightly different, with over three inches more horizontal movement and slightly more drop. He's using it to both righties and lefties this year and doing a good job of keeping the pitch up in the zone while also keeping it on the outer-third of the strike zone against lefties. The pitch is more successful against righties, with a higher SwStr% and lower ICR while also acting as a good two-strike pitch. He throws it 23% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, and it has a 30% chase rate and 25% PutAway Rate in those counts, both of which are well above-average.
This is a better version of his cutter to righties, and even though he's throwing it less often, it's more successful than his previous cutter against right-handed hitters. This version of the cutter has been far less successful against lefties, but that's likely why he's turning to the slider more often. He's using the slider 22.4% of the time against lefties this year after throwing it just 8% in 2023. The pitch is 1.1 mph harder this year, with less drop, but Lauer has far better command of it, and that's the key to its usage. Right now, Lauer is throwing his slider early in counts 76% of the time to lefties. He's pounding the zone with it and registering just a 36% ICR allowed.
He has then turned to the curveball more against lefties later in counts. Back in 2023, he used his curve 11% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties. Now he's using it 22% of the time in those counts. It also has a 33% chase rate in those counts and an 18.5% SwStr% overall to lefties. That gives him a profile of four-seam, cutter, slider, and curve to lefties, with the curve and cutter as the primary two-strike pitches.
Against righties, he uses the four-seam and curve early in the count and tries to use the cutter and slider with two strikes. That slider has actually been successful with two-strikes to righties, posting a 29% PutAway rate and a nearly 20% SwStr% overall. It gives him two pitches he can turn to when he gets ahead in the count, and he will also occasionally turn to his new changeup, but that pitch has yet to record a swinging strike in a two-strike count against righties and has just a 7.5% SwStr% overall with a nearly 73% ICR. It's just not a good pitch.
At the end of the day, Lauer is better against righties because of his multiple two-strike offerings and the use of both the curve and fastball early in counts. That will keep him on the streaming radar since most of the hitters he sees will be righties. He's been fine against lefties, but the swinging strikes aren't as prevalent. I believe in Lauer's contact impression to a certain extent with this new pitch mix, but I think he's more of a 4.00 ERA pitcher with average strikeout upside who I'd rather use as a streamer against right-handed-heavy teams coming up. Yet, with Bowden Francis hurt and Max Scherzer battling this thumb injury, Lauer could continue to get chances in the rotation.
Ryne Nelson - Arizona Diamondbacks (Move to Rotation, Cutter Usage)
Ryne Nelson's arc with the Diamondbacks over the last year has been a wild one. He was the team's best starter in the second half of last season, posting a 3.23 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 67/14 K/BB ratio in 64 innings in the second half of the season. However, he was forced out of the starting rotation at the beginning of this season with the addition of Corbin Burnes and the presence of Eduardo Rodriguez. However, injuries opened up a spot in the starting rotation for Nelson and, since June 7th, he's been a full-time starter in Arizona, posting a 3.34 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 29/10 K/BB ratio in 32.1 innings over six starts.
Over that stretch, he ranks 16th among qualified starters in WHIP, 42nd in ERA, 42nd in K-BB%, and 45th in SIERA. While those are eye-popping metrics, they are good enough for him to be locked onto fantasy rosters in all types of leagues. So what is he doing to earn this, and is it sustainable?
I used Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard to show Nelson's pitch mix splits from when he's starting versus when he's relieving. My thought was to see if he's utilizing his mix any differently as a starter, and it doesn't seem like he has been, except for a decrease in his cutter usage and an increasing reliance on his four-seamer. This shouldn't surprise us since he threw multiple innings at a time as a reliever anyway, but it's worth digging into.
Nelson lives and dies with his four-seam fastball, which makes some sense since it's his best pitch. It's 95.6 mph with over 18 inches of iVB and a flat Height Adjusted Vertical Approach Angle that allows it to thrive up in the zone. Since he joined the rotation, he's been using the four-seamer up in the zone 52% of the time, and it's posted a 55% zone rate, 55% strike rate, and 13.6% SwStr%, with a 42% ICR. He uses the pitch as both an early count strike pitch and also a two-strike swing-and-miss pitch; however, it's far more successful as a two-strike pitch to lefties. Since he moved into the starting rotation, Nelson has a 17% PutAway Rate on the four-seam to righties but a 25.5% mark to lefties.
Nelson should theoretically be able to compensate for that against righties because he throws his slider almost exclusively to righties, but that pitch is more of an early called strike pitch. Nelson has thrown his slider early in the count 67% of the time to righties since joining the rotation, with a 79% first pitch strike rate and just a 6% PutAway Rate when he does use it in two-strike counts. He'll also mix in a curve to righties 10% of the time and that pitch has been more successful in two-strike counts with a nearly 16% PutAwray Rate; however, you're seeing a bit of the weakness here since Nelson has just a 22% strikeout rate to righties in his six starts in the rotation.
His strikeout rate isn't that much better against lefties, with a 24% mark, but I think his four-seam fastball misses more bats to lefties because he can use it off of the cutter he throws12% of the time to lefties. He uses it 81% of the time early in the count, and it's not a pitch he commands well against lefties, but much of that is because he misses up and out of the strike zone or inside off the plate. By missing in those spots, he forces lefties to back up off the plate or look for the cutter up, and then they get a four-seamer that's six mph faster and are unable to catch up.
He will also throw the curve to lefties, but he throws it early in the count 73% of the time and has a poor 4% SwStr% on it against lefties in his last six starts. His changeup is another afterthought pitch that he has pretty much fazed out against lefties over the last few starts, which means he's really just four-seam, cutter, and curve to lefties.
In short, Nelson kind of only has a four-seam fastball. The good thing for him is that it's a really good four-seam fastball. He also has a deep enough arsenal where he can attack hitters of each handedness with at least three pitches. Those secondaries are inconsistent and don't miss many bats, which will limit his fantasy upside, but they also prevent hitters from simply sitting on his fastball. I think that profile will keep Nelson as a high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy option who can dominate weaker lineups who won't be able to handle his four-seam fastball. I like adding him in most league types, but this isn't "league-winning" upside, if that's what you're after.
