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Neil Parker's expert pick: Mets moneyline
Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket
The Atlanta Braves have dropped to 29th in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA through 21 games without star Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), while the New York Mets comfortably sit 16th and eighth in the two metrics. Atlanta starter Reynaldo Lopez also sports a 4.60 xFIP across his seven 2026 starts that’s well above his 3.34 ERA, so statistical corrections looms.
It’s just the opposite with New York righty Freddy Peralta, too. He’s held opposing hitters to the sixth-lowest barrel percentage among pitchers with at least 75 innings to pave the way for a respectable 3.78 xERA that’s way below his 4.81 ERA. Peralta also has statistical correction coming to his unsustainably low 68.7% strand rate.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
How to watch: SNY, BravesVision
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Dodgers -1.5
Price: 54¢ (-115) at Polymarket
A perfect storm has formed for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight with the Colorado Rockies coming to town. Los Angeles has demolished left-handed pitching over the past two weeks, leading MLB in OPS, and now gets a crack at Kyle Freeland, who's completely fallen apart with a 7.25 ERA through 15 starts.
Dodgers hitters have also crushed him for a .918 OPS across 200 combined at-bats. Eric Lauer has helped LA go a perfect 5-0 in his starts, while the Dodgers have won 10 straight home games against Colorado and are 13-1 in their last 14 following a loss, which is the situation tonight after losing to the Padres yesterday.
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WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 17: Washington Nationals President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni (R) introduces Washington Nationals Manager Blake Butera (L) with his jersey during a press conference at Nationals Park on November 17, 2025 in Washington, DC. Butera became the eighth manager in Nationals team history and the youngest manager in Major League Baseball since 1972. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A year ago today, the trajectory of the Washington Nationals changed drastically. Manager Davey Martinez and President of Baseball Operations Mike Rizzo were fired on July 6th, 2025. The duo had led the Nats to a World Series title in 2019, but in the midst of a disappointing season, it was clear that they were no longer the right men to lead the franchise forward.
After the World Series in 2019, the Nats quickly aged out of contention, and the lack of depth on the farm meant that there were no replacements. In 2021, Mike Rizzo decided to sell off veteran pieces and lead the franchise into a rebuild. With a World Series ring only a couple years prior, Rizzo and Martinez were allowed to lead the Nats into this new era.
In 2022, the reality of the rebuild set in. This would be an even longer process than expected. That meant 23 year old future Hall of Famer Juan Soto had to be traded. The move was a painful one, but it turned out to be the best decision Mike Rizzo made in the rebuild. He got three cornerstone pieces in James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore.
However, Rizzo’s lack of success in the draft and Martinez’s archaic coaching staff meant the fruits of that trade could not be fully realized. By 2025, the Nats were stuck. They had nice pieces, but there was a clear disconnect between the coaching staff and the players, and the roster was far too top heavy. With the Nats sitting at 37-53, the Lerner family made the big decision to fire Rizzo and Martinez.
A year later, that decision is looking very wise. Right now, the Nats are above .500 with a 46-45 record. Under Paul Toboni and Blake Butera, the organization has quickly modernized and embraced analytics in a way that they had not in the past. A big story this spring was how much new technology the Nats had. Between the trajekt machine, weighted bats and more, the Nats were finally embracing 2020’s baseball.
There is now a Trajekt, pulse bands, plyo walls, TVs in the ‘pen, TruMedia, weighted bats and… did you leave anything out?
“Dude, I might [have]. We have so much stuff, it’s insane.”
As you can see with the record, this new approach is paying immediate dividends. The Nats did not improve their record by going out and signing big name free agents. In fact, the Nats barely spent any money at all. Toboni’s three biggest free agent signings were Miles Mikolas, Zack Littell and Foster Griffin.
The Nats biggest offseason move was actually to sell one of their core pieces away. After an offseason of speculation, MacKenzie Gore was shipped off to Texas for a five prospect haul. So far, that move is looking good, with Devin Fitz-Gerald becoming a top 100 prospect, and Gore failing to take the next step.
I am not going to sit here and say that Toboni’s trade history has been perfect. He has made a few moves that look dicey right now, such as the Harry Ford for Jose A. Ferrer swap and the Jake Bennett for Luis Perales deal. Toboni has also struggled to build a competent bullpen, much like Mike Rizzo had for the past few seasons.
However, it would be difficult to argue that the Toboni impact has been negative. He has made good moves like the Gore deal, the Foster Griffin signing and the Curtis Mead trade. His biggest impact though has been putting a development system in place that is helping improve players on the roster.
Right now, the Nationals have scored the most runs in all of baseball. Just about every player on the offensive side of the ball has improved. Already productive players like James Wood and CJ Abrams have taken the next step. However, the biggest success stories have been among guys who had previously been written off.
I thought I knew who Luis Garcia Jr. was. My perception of him has changed drastically in the past month though. He is swinging the bat harder, hitting the ball harder and hitting it in the air more often. That has led to an insane hot streak where he has 10 homers in his last 15 games. Garcia has already set a career high with 19 home runs.
If not for Junior Caminero, Luis Garcia Jr. would be the hottest hitter in baseball. 10 home runs in his last 15 games! pic.twitter.com/wkHDtnvDZ6
— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 5, 2026
Keibert Ruiz’s turnaround is a great example of what a new coaching staff can do. His career looked to be dead and buried after last season. He was awful on both sides of the ball, and had injury issues. Ruiz’s long term contract looked like an absolute albatross. With the help of catching coach Bobby Wilson and the rest of the Nats staff, Ruiz is having a career year.
He is hitting .285 with a .788 OPS while playing well above average defense. Despite not producing the last couple years, we knew that Ruiz had some offensive upside. The defensive turnaround has been nothing short of miraculous and the changes happened seemingly overnight. That is great work by the new coaching staff, but also a real indictment on the old staff.
By the end of his tenure with the Nats, Davey Martinez seemed stubborn and standoffish. He would rather go down with the ship than make any changes to his coaching staff. That stubbornness came to a head during his famous “never on coaching” rant.
A year after his firing, it sure seems like coaching does matter. Players like Ruiz, Garcia and Mead have been totally unlocked by this coaching staff. There is still room to grow, but for the first time in a while, you can really see coaches making players better. That is what they are here to do after all.
Blake Butera embodies the development first mentality that the Nats have. This should not come as a shock given the fact that the 33 year old worked in player development for the Rays prior to taking this job. He has given some great quotes about the importance of pre-game work and about how players are still not finished products when they get to the big leagues. This coaching staff is trying to make every player better, even grizzled veterans like Miles Mikolas.
Long pregame message from Nats manager Blake Butera about the defense, which leads MLB in errors. They were practicing on the field over five hours before today’s game.
Said they need to let their athleticism take over and stop being afraid to make mistakes. pic.twitter.com/Bx1Jr0r5ES
The dedication to improving players is my favorite part of this new regime, and it is the biggest change. They are clearly working very hard to make these guys better, and they are seeing the fruits of their labor.
This is not just happening on the major league side either. We have seen some big breakouts on the farm as well. Seaver King had a disastrous first pro season, but after going in the lab with the new braintrust, he looks like a different player. He is hitting the ball harder, chasing less and whiffing less.
A year after the firings of Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez, the Nationals are in a much better position. Sure, a lot of the main pieces contributing to this team were brought in by the old regime, but it is the new regime that is unlocking them.
The Chicago Cubs battered San Diego to the tune of a 23-3 score that would have seemed more appropriate for an old Bears-Chargers matchup.
Then, in their very next game, they lost to St. Louis 17-1.
The Cubs have been a tough team to figure out this season. By May 9 they already had two separate 10-game winning streaks and were 15 games over .500. Then a week later they began a 10-game losing streak. Chicago now is 10 games over .500 but trails the Milwaukee Brewers by six games atop the NL Central.
Dansby Swanson hit three home runs with eight RBIs as the Cubs produced their most runs at home since 1977. San Diego catcher Rodolfo Duran pitched the final two innings, allowing eight runs.
After a day off, Chicago looked like a completely different team, when David Peterson allowed 10 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Cardinals.
Perhaps it simply was a case of Chicago facing two opponents heading in different directions. The blowout loss was part of an eight-game losing streak for the Padres. Meanwhile, the Cardinals took two of three at Wrigley Field and have won five of their last seven overall.
The Cubs have been one of baseball’s better offensive teams despite a quiet season from new addition Alex Bregman. Pete Crow-Armstrong has 19 homers, 23 steals and a .910 OPS.
Trivia time
Crow-Armstrong is tied for the major league lead in homers plus stolen bases with 42. Which player is he tied with, and who led the majors in that stat last year?
Late dramatics
The Cubs lead the majors with 10 walk-off victories this season, and the crosstown White Sox are second with seven. But two of the biggest walk-off wins came against Chicago.
Brayan Rocchio hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth to give Cleveland a 6-5 victory over the White Sox. Then Kahlil Watson hit a game-winning RBI single the following night in the 10th for a 4-3 triumph.
The first-place White Sox have been one of the game’s biggest stories this year, but even after Chicago took the last two games of the four-game set, Cleveland only is a game behind in the AL Central.
Performance of the week
Eury Pérez pitched seven perfect innings, then was pulled by Miami manager Clayton McCullough. The move nearly blew up in McCullough’s face, but the Marlins held on to beat the Athletics 9-8 after almost squandering an 8-0 lead.
Part of McCullough’s explanation was that he was thinking long term, with the Marlins hoping to play beyond the regular season. And it probably is time for the rest of baseball to take Miami seriously as a playoff contender. The Marlins are percentage points behind St. Louis for the third wild card, and they have the second-best run differential in the NL East.
Pérez has allowed two runs in 17 innings since returning from a leg injury.
Comeback of the week
The Houston Astros rallied from a 7-2 deficit to beat the Tampa Bay Rays 10-8. Yordan Alvarez hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth to win it. That snapped a nine-game winning streak by the Rays, who now lead the New York Yankees by four games atop the AL East.
Houston is 45-47 but just 2 1/2 games out of first place in the AL West and one game out of a wild card.
Trivia answer
Bobby Witt Jr. has 12 home runs and 30 steals.
Last year’s leader was Juan Soto (43 homers, 38 steals).
KANSAS CITY – Cristopher Sanchez’ second-to-last audition to win the starting assignment for the National League in next week’s All-Star Game did not go well Monday afternoon.
In fact, it was pretty awful.
The left-hander was rocked for nine runs in 3 1/3 innings as the Phillies were hammered, 15-1, by the lowly Kansas City Royals for the second day in a row at Kauffman Stadium.
As bad as the results were for Sanchez, things might have gone differently for him and the Phillies had one of the team’s gnawing concerns not reared its head.
You hear a lot about the bullpen, the back-end of the starting rotation and the lack of a strong right-handed hitting outfielder as being the Phillies’ biggest flaws.
But Trea Turner’s defense at shortstop is a significant deficiency that the club cannot hide from.
Turner, who entered the game as the lowest-ranked shortstop in the majors with minus-8 defensive runs saved, according to Fangraphs, threw away a potential inning-ending double-play ball that opened the door for the Royals to score six first-inning runs against Sanchez. Turner was charged with an error, his 12th, allowing the runners to advance. But since a double play can’t be assumed, all the runs against Sanchez in that inning were ruled earned. His ERA jumped from 2.00 to 2.44 in the course of one inning.
Now, Sanchez should not be let off the hook here. He clearly did not do a good job limiting the damage. He allowed four straight hits, including a three-run homer, after Turner’s error. But not getting that inning-ending double play was a game-changer.
Sanchez will make his final start before the All-Star break on Saturday in Detroit. He’s probably still in the driver’s seat to make the start next Tuesday night in Philadelphia. But, recently, some of the luster of his run to the All-Star Game has been stripped away. He has allowed 14 runs in 8 1/3 innings in two of his last three starts.
Monday’s start was the shortest by Sanchez in over a year. He exited after two innings against the Mets on April 22 of last season, but that was due to forearm soreness. The 12 hits allowed by Sanchez matched a season and career high. His sinking fastball averaged 94.8 mph, down a tick from its 95.2 season average. His signature changeup produced six swings and misses, but there were times when it was up in the zone. He gave up three home runs, all on changeups.
As for Turner, the day started off promising. He opened the game with a double off the center field wall and scored on a double by Alec Bohm as the Phillies took a 1-0 lead in the first inning. The Phils looked to have some momentum going but everything changed in the bottom of the first inning.
Kansas City lefty Noah Cameron pitched five innings and, despite walking five, did not allow another run after the first. He used a six-pitch mix and a fastball that averaged just 92.7 mph to hold the Phillies at bay.
Phillies hitters were just 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position and they left 15 men on base. The Phils were out-hit, 22-10. Yes, the Royals feasted on the bullpen, as well.
Turner led the Phillies with three hits, but his 12th error loomed large. Turner is in the fourth year of an 11-year contract that runs through 2033. He made 40 errors his first two seasons with the Phils. His defense improved last season and he made just eight. Now, the defense is an issue again. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said in the past that the club has not considered moving Turner to the outfield. The team might have to think about it before long because it’s getting difficult to hide from this gnawing concern.
KANSAS CITY, MO - JUNE 30: Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron (65) as seen before a MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Kansas City Royals on June 30, 2026, at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
This afternoon the 36-54 Royals will play their last home game against the 50-40 Phillies before the All-Star break next week. After this game, the Royals will travel to New York and then Baltimore to finish out this disappointing first half of a season.
Noah Cameron takes the bump for the Royals. He was last seen getting shelled by the Rays and hasn’t really been all that good for a month. The lineup is, well, it’s certainly a lineup of baseball players.
The Phillies will start lefty Cristopher Sánchez, who is tied with human flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski for the MLB pitcher lead in fWAR and is a Cy Young candidate.
In other words, it doesn’t look good for the Royals today as the try to take the series.
The game starts at 1:10pm US Central time. You can watch on Royals.TV or listen on 96.5 The Fan/the Royals Radio Network.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JULY 04: Yordan Alvarez #44 of the Houston Astros is congratulated by Jose Altuve #27 after hitting a two run home run in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Daikin Park on July 04, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The first question surrounding the Houston Astros has finally been answered.
After another frustrating April and a sluggish start that had some fans calling for a rebuild and others wondering whether this would finally be the year the Astros became sellers at the trade deadline, Houston has done what it seemingly does every season.
It reminded everyone never to count them out.
By taking two of three from the Tampa Bay Rays, the team with the best record in the American League, the Astros made one thing abundantly clear.
They’re buyers.
And they should be.
The American League doesn’t have a dominant team. The playoff picture remains wide open, and Houston has positioned itself squarely in the middle of the race despite enduring months of injuries and inconsistent play. When you have one of the league’s premier players in Yordan Alvarez putting together an MVP-caliber season, you don’t waste that opportunity by standing pat.
You add.
The only question now is where.
If Astros GM Dana Brown can make only one significant addition before the trade deadline, should it be another starting pitcher or an impact bat for the outfield?
There’s a legitimate case for either move.
On the pitching side, the Astros have reason for optimism. Cristian Javier is back and, while he’s currently working out of the bullpen, it’s difficult to imagine him staying there if his arm continues to respond well. Lance McCullers Jr. is making rehab starts in Sugar Land and appears to be nearing another return. Ronel Blanco is also progressing through his recovery and could provide meaningful innings during the second half.
If even two of those three pitchers return and perform near their previous levels, Houston’s rotation suddenly looks much deeper than it did just a few weeks ago.
The outfield, however, is another story.
It has become a revolving door of role players and short-term solutions. Every few weeks another name is inserted into the lineup in hopes of finding a spark, but the overall production has remained largely unchanged.
LaMonte Wade Jr. is simply the latest attempt to patch the position, but he’s unlikely to be the long-term answer.
Cam Smith continues to show why the organization believes he’s part of its future. His athleticism, power potential, and maturity are all evident, and there’s every reason to believe he’ll become an impact player.
But that future doesn’t necessarily have to be now.
Asking a young player to consistently help anchor a playoff lineup is an enormous burden. There will be flashes of brilliance, but there will also be growing pains. That’s simply part of the development process.
Which is why, if I’m sitting in Dana Brown’s chair, my priority is finding another proven bat.
Not because pitching isn’t important.
Because the Astros already have reinforcements on the way.
The lineup doesn’t.
Houston needs another hitter who can lengthen the order, provide additional protection for Yordan Alvarez, and force opposing pitchers to navigate a dangerous lineup from top to bottom. One established offensive player changes the complexion of this team far more than adding another arm to a rotation that could soon receive multiple internal upgrades.
That’s not to suggest the Astros shouldn’t explore pitching. Every contender is looking for more pitching this time of year.
But if they’re forced to choose one major acquisition, I believe the bigger need is in the outfield.
The Astros have survived the toughest part of their season. They’ve weathered injuries, slumps, and a slow start while keeping themselves firmly in the playoff race. Now it’s time to capitalize on that perseverance.
The right addition won’t simply help them reach October.
It could put them in position to make another deep postseason run.
So now the question shifts to Astros fans.
If Dana Brown only has one major move left before the trade deadline, which direction should he go?
Would you rather add another frontline arm?
Or would you find the impact bat this lineup has been searching for all season?
ANAHEIM, Calif. — Ranger Suarez was unable to pitch in the 2024 All-Star Game because of back stiffness, and there is a chance the Boston Red Sox left-hander will miss the July 14 event in Philadelphia because of a groin injury.
Suarez, named an American League All-Star, left a 7-5 win over the Los Angeles Angels because of left-adductor tightness, an injury he said he suffered on a pitch to Jo Adell with two outs in the third inning.
Suarez probably aggravated the injury when he jumped for Adell’s chopper over the mound, a ball that went for an infield single. Interim manager Chad Tracy and a team trainer came to the mound, where Suarez threw one warmup pitch to test the leg before immediately heading for the visiting dugout.
“With that pitch that I threw, I felt a big pinch around the groin area,” Suarez said through an interpreter. “I tried to throw another pitch, but I still felt it, so I came out.”
Suarez, who signed a five-year, $130-million free-agent deal with the Red Sox last winter, said he could not recall suffering a similar injury. He underwent treatment during the game but said the injury “felt the same” by the time he spoke to reporters 2 1/2 hours later.
Is the injured list a possibility?
“Yeah, it’s only been two hours,” said Suarez, who is 4-3 with a 3.15 ERA this season. “The training staff wants to see how I feel tomorrow and the next day, and then we’ll make a decision on where we go from there.”
Tracy said the team will wait to see how Suarez feels in the next day or two before sending him out for an MRI test.
“Any time you see adductor, groin tightness, you’re always concerned,” Tracy said. “Sometimes things like this will pop up, then you check the next day, and they get better quickly. It’s hard to say right now until we see how he feels coming out of it.”
If Suarez goes on the injured list, Red Sox teammate Sonny Gray, who was not named to the All-Star team despite his 10-1 record and 2.61 ERA, could be added to the AL club.
“Right now, I’m not thinking about that,” Suarez said. “For me, the most important thing is to be as healthy as possible for the second half. I’m not thinking about anything other than that.”
SEATTLE — Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter George Springer could make his return from the family medical emergency list, manager John Schneider said.
The four-time All-Star went on the paternity list, welcoming the birth of his third child. The paternity leave expired, so the Blue Jays moved him to the family medical emergency list. But Schneider confirmed everything was well and the move was to give their leadoff hitter more time.
He is expecting Springer to be available for its road trip to San Francisco.
“I think he’s going to travel tomorrow,” Schneider said after Toronto’s 4-0 loss to Seattle. “That was the tentative plan. So, just got to confirm that with him.”
Springer, 36, is slashing .221/.308/.373 with eight homers and 21 RBIs.
Right-hander Max Scherzer was in Seattle after making a rehab start in High-A Vancouver. Schneider confirmed that the 41-year-old three-time Cy Young winner will make another rehab start or two before being activated off the 15-day injured list since June 17 because of back spasms.
CLEVELAND — White Sox rookie first baseman Munetaka Murakami will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte, the slugger’s final step before rejoining Chicago’s lineup after being out with a right hamstring injury.
Murakami has been sidelined since suffering a Grade 2 strain on May 29, when he got hurt trying to beat out a double play grounder against Detroit. At the time of his injury, Murakami was tied for the AL lead in homers and was first in runs.
He’s been traveling with the White Sox and following a 7-6 win over the Guardians, manager Will Venable said Murakami will leave to play with the Knights. If all goes well, it’s possible he could be back with Chicago before the All-Star break.
“I’m just really happy that I am able to get back to playing baseball,” Murakami said through an interpreter.
The 26-year-old Murakami is batting .240 with 20 homers, 43 runs and 41 RBIs in his first season with the White Sox, who signed the Japanese free agent to a two-year, $34-million contract in December.
Chicago has been one of baseball’s biggest surprises this season and the White Sox managed to stay near the top of the AL Central without Murakami. In splitting the four-game series with Cleveland, Chicago moved back into first by one game.
“It took a lot,” Venable said after the White Sox won the weather-delayed series finale. “There was a lot going on in that game.”
The White Sox went 17-15 without Murakami, but will soon have him back to bolster the middle of their batting order.
“There’s a possibility that he plays for us before the break, for sure,” Venable said. “We need him back obviously on the field, but just his presence, it means so much to have him in the lineup, what that does for you.”
LOS ANGELES — Edwin Díaz still is on track to return to the Los Angeles Dodgers following the All-Star break after throwing his first live batting practice since elbow surgery.
Díaz faced hitters at Dodger Stadium before the back-to-back World Series champions hosted the San Diego Padres. The high-priced closer has been sidelined since late April because of loose bodies in his elbow.
Díaz only has made seven appearances for the Dodgers, who signed the longtime New York Mets closer to a three-year, $69 million deal as a free agent. He will go on a rehab assignment next, but he is on schedule to return around the time when the break ends in two weeks.
Díaz wasn’t his usual dominant self to begin his first season with Los Angeles, posting a 10.50 ERA in only six innings with noticeably lower velocity. After his live batting practice, Díaz said he feels “way better than early in the season.”
Among the batters who faced Díaz was Kiké Hernández in his first live at-bats since going on the injured list in late May with a left oblique strain.
Díaz has 257 saves over 11 major league seasons with the Mariners, Mets and Dodgers.
WASHINGTON — Konnor Griffin put on quite a show for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
A single, a stolen base, two spectacular plays in the field — and finally, a bases-loaded hit that put his team ahead to stay.
“He’s a complete player,” manager Don Kelly said. “He’s going to help us win for a long time.”
Pittsburgh’s 11-5 victory over the Washington Nationals may have looked lopsided at the end, but it was tight much of the way — and Griffin repeatedly made big contributions. The 20-year-old shortstop, who received a nine-year, $140 million contract in April, showed the many ways he can impact a game.
Griffin’s defensive day stood out in particular. There was a diving stop on a grounder in the third, but Curtis Mead beat it out for a single. In the fourth, Keibert Ruiz hit a popup to shallow left field, and Griffin had to deal with the sun while making a diving, backhanded catch.
“Had my glasses on my head, because sweat was just dripping down my lens,” Griffin said. “Took the chance of fighting the sun, and luckily it worked out.”
Down 4-3, the Nationals loaded the bases with nobody out in the fifth. CJ Abrams lifted a popup onto the outfield grass, and Griffin made a sliding backhanded grab on that one as well. And he nearly got up quickly enough to throw James Wood out at the plate after the Washington slugger tagged up at third. Wood beat Griffin’s bouncing throw, but that was the only run the Nationals got that inning.
“I felt like I could get there,” Griffin said. “I was hoping I could finish the play off at home. Just a weird grip, came out weird.”
The game was still tied at 4-4 when Griffin came up in the eighth with the bases loaded and hit a single to right on the seventh pitch of the at-bat. Two runs came home, and the Pirates never looked back.
“He has that ability. Being 20 years old and a rookie, he’s way mature beyond his years,” Kelly said. “He is going to have huge moments like that, yes, and also understanding that he’s 20 and learning, and for him to have that type of at-bat in that situation, fouling off those pitches, and to be able to break the tie, that was unbelievable.”
DENVER, COLORADO - JULY 4: Robbie Ray #38 of the San Francisco Giants pitches in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on July 4, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Giants should be damn happy they play in the same division as the Rockies. If it weren’t for the best-run front office of 2004, San Francisco would be in an even worse spot than their current .420 winning percentage, but regardless look to be sellers at the trade deadline. I’m of the opinion that the entire organization needs to be taken back to formula and Buster Posey is perhaps not the guy to run things, but in the medium term at least, they will attempt a more conventional rebuild.
The chief challenge with the fit between the Yankees and Giants is the discrepancy in the latter’s asset performance. The Yankees need bullpen help, no question, and there are a trio of San Fran relievers who are free agents at the end of the year, classic trade bait pieces: Tyler Mahle, JT Brubaker, and Sam Hentges. Unfortunately Mahle is terrible, and while the other two both boast sub-3.00 ERAs, any other underlying metric indicates that those ERAs will not stay that low for long. Hentges is walking a comical 19.7 percent of batters faced, and Brubaker’s 17 percent strikeout rate does not help a Yankee bullpen that desperately needs some more whiffs.
If I had to pick one of the three, I would roll the dice on Hentges since he’s never had a year this bad from a walk rate perspective. Before 2026 he sat at a comfortable 8.4 percent rate for his career, so I’m going to be optimistic and say this is a flukey thing or the Giants are just bad at managing their pitchers. Still, I’m burned enough by Camilo Doval that I don’t really want any bullpen help from San Francisco.
If the Yankees choose to shore up their pitching rotation instead, given the impact of injuries and the potential of moving one of their own starters to the bullpen, Robbie Ray is also coming up on free agency. The 34 year old former Cy Young winner has a 3.45 ERA, pretty good, but you’ll never guess what happens if you look under the hood. The third-worst strikeout rate of his career matched with an unholy home run rate while playing in a park that doesn’t allow a lot of dingers should make us all very frightened of the idea of Ray pitching in the Bronx.
So the pitching’s all kinda bunk.
It may be unsurprising for a 37-51 team but the offense doesn’t look all that much better. The Giants have a bunch of pretty fat contracts on the books that I’m sure they’d be interested in trying to dump, but there’s no fit for Rafael Devers on this team. The Yankees certainly aren’t going to take on some $150 million worth of Willy Adames, and while I suppose you could squint and rub the bridge of your nose and maybe huff a Sharpie and see a spot for Matt Chapman on the club, he’s not even been a league average hitter in 2026. The Yankees already have a defensively-talented third baseman who can’t hit, and he isn’t under contract through his age-38 seeason.
I guess the one guy you could ask about, especially if it’s true that Aaron Judge won’t be back until September, would be Jung Hoo Lee, but I don’t know why the Giants would want to move one of their only productive hitters who’s still 27 and under team control for four more seasons at a relatively reasonable rate. I feel like there are some dark times coming for the Giants, perhaps some moral judgement for the harms the Bay Area have visited on the globe over the last two decades. There’s just not a lot here, and the prospect capital the Yankees would be expected to give up is probably best suited going elsewhere.
Jedixson Paez of the Portland Sea Dogs is present during a Minor League Baseball game at TD Bank Ballpark in Bridgewater, United States, on May 1, 2026. (Photo by Dan Squicciarini/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
In the finale against the Mets, the pitching provided a steady frame, even having to use five arms, allowing just six hits on the game, two of which were home runs. But this game was on the verge of turning into a laughter in the top of the first when the WooSox batted around and catcher Nate Knizner (who was the DH Sunday) had his first home run in his new organization. Mickey Gasper also continues to rake at a Triple-A level; two doubles on Sunday adds to that sample. The score was 5-1 at the end of one and the fate of Worcester’s win was never in worry.
This was a masterclass by Blake Wehunt and Jedixson Paez as the Curve (Pirates AA) absolutely got carved up, striking out seventeen times and managing just two hits. Paez didn’t allow a walk and got the 12-out save. Now, this win would have been safe even without run support, but the Sea Dogs had plenty of that too. Brooks Brannon had a home run to heat his bat back up, bringing the score to 6-0, and it’d only grow in the later innings. For Paez in particular, though, a lengthy relief appearance going this successfully is amazing. Paez was selected in the Rule 5 draft by the White Sox in December, made the opening day big league roster, and, pretty immediately, was returned to Boston after falling flat in the majors. The 22-year-old has some developing to do, but getting eight of twelve outs via strikeout is a promising sign.
Devin Futrell has either been automatic or struggled quite a bit this season. The Dash (White Sox High-A) tagged him for eleven hits but the towering lefty was able to put in five innings, and the bullpen held it. But, it was tough for Greenville to overcome allowing Winston-Salem two runs in each of the first three frames. No one was safe offensively from striking out at least once, but almost everyone also was in the “getting knocks” business. Unfortunately, no one out of six attempts was successful in the “getting knocks with runners in scoring position” business.
Not going to win many games with just three hits against the Green Jackets (Braves A), including the four through seven holes in the lineup going 0-for-14 with 10 strikeouts. As a whole, if you look at the team’s OPS up and down the lineup, nothing really jumps off the page in the lower levels. The pitching did enough to win a game where there was more offense than that, but it wasn’t to be on Sunday.
Jul 5, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) breaks his bat while grounding out during the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Last week, our Rangers Reacts survey asked folks what the Texas Rangers should prioritize, should they be buyers at the trade deadline.
It is still up in the air, of course, whether they will be in a position to buy — they are currently occupying Wild Card 3, but a couple of bad weeks could put the Rangers in a place where they’d be more likely to be sellers than buyers. We are going to be optimistic for now, though…
A majority of folks believe that the bullpen is the area that the Rangers should prioritize, and its hard to argue with that stance, given the overall state of the team. Outfield/DH was the next most popular option, followed distantly by the rotation, catcher, and the infield.
For the MLB-wide questions, when asked which MLB exec currently has the hottest seat, David Stearns of the Mets got by far the most votes, though Buster Posey of the Giants and Craig Breslow of the Red Sox each got some support.
In the wake of MLB’s proposal to change the MLB draft rules and length, almost half of folks think the draft should be revamped.
And taking a look back at the Rafael Devers trade from a little over a year ago, the consensus is that no one came out well in that deal.
Neil Parker: Mets moneyline
Joe Osborne: Dodgers -1.5
