Category: Baseball

Saturday notes…

• STREAKING THE WRONG WAY: The Cubs have lost three straight games for just the third time since their 42-25 surge began on June 11. The first time was Aug. 19-22. In both three-game skids, the losses were by a total of five runs: three, one and one in the first span; one, two and two in the current one. The Cubs have not dropped four in a row since the final four of their 10-game losing streak, May 23-26. They have played 80 games since then. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• SATURDAY IN THE PARK: The Cubs are 11-11 on Saturdays. They finished last season 20-7. They are 6-6 on Saturdays at home. They were 9-5 a year ago. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• NOT DIGGING THESE LONG BALLS: The four home runs surrendered by Cubs pitchers yesterday raised their season total to 202. At their current pace, they will end the season with 242, seven more than their team record of 235, set in 2021. There have been 14 seasons in which other teams served up 242, with a high of 305, by the Orioles in 2019. The second most were 270, by the Rockies the same year. Seven of the 14 highest totals came in 2019. The Orioles and White Sox gave up 242, both in 2017. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: The Cubs trail the Pirates 6-3 going to the bottom of the eighth. Willson Contreras hits a two-run homer in that inning and Jorge Soler homers in the bottom of the ninth to send it to extras tied 6-6. The Pirates push a run across the plate in the top of the 13th, but RBI singles by Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Montero give the Cubs an 8-7 win. It happened 10 years ago today, Monday, Aug. 29, 2016.

Cubs lineup:

Reds lineup:

Kevin Gausman, RHP vs. Andrew Abbott, LHP

Kevin Gausman had an outstanding start in his last outing, Monday vs. the Diamondbacks. He was flipped with Shōta Imanaga in the rotation to give Imanaga an extra rest day, so Gausman is going on normal four days’ rest.

He has not faced the Reds since 2024 so most current Reds have a pretty small sample size against him. The exception is Eugenio Suárez, who as you know just kills Cubs pitching. Against Gausman, Suárez is 8-for-26 (.308) with two home runs. Suárez also homered off Gausman in Game 5 of last year’s ALCS.

Be careful here, Kevin.

Coming off a 2025 when he was an All-Star and finished eighth in Cy Young voting, hopes were high for Andrew Abbott’s 2026 season.

He has not been as good. Five starts in August: 5.40 ERA, 1.482 WHIP. He did throw 5.2 shutout innings against the Cubs May 5 at Wrigley Field, but the Cubs got to him for four runs in four innings July 12 in Cincinnati.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter. If you do go there to interact with Reds fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

The Dodgers finish off the road trip with one more game against the Tigers on Sunday morning at Comerica Park in Detroit.

Tyler Glasnow is back on the mound on four days rest after throwing five innings on Tuesday in Atlanta in his return from the injured list. He allowed three runs in the first inning but struck out seven and didn’t allow anything else the rest of the way.

Glasnow is either going to start on Sunday or will follow Shohei Ohtani after one inning. On Saturday morning in Detroit, manager Dave Roberts told reporters that Ohtani is not 100 percent and the decision on whether Ohtani will pitch on Sunday will come after Saturday’s game.

Left-hander Framber Valdez goes for the Tigers in the series finale.

Sunday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Tigers
• Ballpark: Comerica Park, Detroit
• Start time: 10:40 a.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

The Mets are getting a massive boost in the middle of their lineup with Juan Soto coming off the injured list ahead of Saturday's game against the Houston Astros, the team announced.

“Good to get him back in the lineup,” interim manager Andy Green said Saturday. “He’s worked incredibly hard over the last few weeks; he’s done a lot of it behind the scenes… he’s pushed himself in a way you don’t, frankly, see a lot of veterans push themselves when your team is in this type of situation we’re in.

“I think that speaks volumes to his desire to be on the field, to his desire to play.”

Soto has been on the shelf since late July when he sustained a left calf strain, the second time a calf ailment has sent him to the sidelines this year. He will make his return from the IL without making any rehab appearances and go right into the lineup Saturday as the DH and batting second.

As far as Soto’s workload, Green said there is an element that remains day-to-day, which he said explains the club being “cryptic” around a return date.  

“We’ll check him daily; that will be part of the process,” the skipper said. “If he needs a day, he will get a day. There will be some days [off] scheduled at the outset that we do have… It’s just day-by-day, and if he’s feeling great and things look good, then there’s no manager in the world that doesn’t want to pencil him into the two-hole every day.”

Adding later: “Excited to get your best players back on the field.” 

And that was a real shame for Soto and the Mets, as the slugger was in the middle of a fantastic year in the batter's box. In 84 games, Soto had 21 home runs and 52 RBI with a .283/.408/.539 slash line for a .947 OPS (164 OPS+ and 158 wRC+) and was named an NL All-Star starter.

Soto missed a bit over two weeks in early April (that time in the right calf) before he sustained a Grade 2 strain in the left calf during a game with the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 24.

In a corresponding move, infielder Eric Wagaman has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.

This was a tough one to watch. The San Diego Padres gave up nine runs in their series opener versus the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s a crucial stretch for the Friars, where every win matters as the Arizona Diamondbacks attempt to claw their way into the postseason. The Padres own the final Wild Card spot for the time being, but several teams are knocking on the door.

San Diego will need to, at bare minimum, force the rubber match in today’s game if they hope to stay a step ahead of the remaining National League contenders. The Friars knew that Tampa Bay would be a tough opponent, but last night’s series opener was an indication of just how difficult the Rays are to beat.

Taking the mound

Nick Martinez (TB) v. Walker Buehler (SD)

The former Padre has been putting up ridiculous numbers this season. Through 25 games, Martinez has a 13-4 record and a 2.93 ERA. That has been an unprecedented level of success for the veteran pitcher. Martinez went to Tampa Bay on a throwaway, one-year contract. That has turned out quite well for the Rays.

Martinez spent two seasons in San Diego (2022-23). At the time, they were the two best seasons in his career with a combined 3.30 ERA. Martinez left the Friars for the Cincinnati Reds before turning in one of the best seasons of his career in Tampa Bay this year.

On the other side of the mound, Buehler has been one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball for San Diego. That’s not inherently due to an otherworldly performance, but his availability with the Friars has been an anchor in their injury-plagued rotation.

That being said, the numbers aren’t awful. Buehler owns a 4.63 ERA through 126 1/3 innings pitched. Those are incredibly modest numbers for the valuable season that Buehler has had. Earlier this year, Buehler gave up a whopping 20 runs across just 11 innings. Without that blip, his ERA goes down to a much more respectable 3.51 mark.

Batter up!

The lineup was surprisingly potent, scoring four runs against Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. All of those runs came in the fifth and sixth innings, with the Friars scoring in a bases-loaded opportunity alongside of a Jackson Merrill home run. The San Diego pitching staff was the reason for this loss, though four runs isn’t exactly something to write home about either.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
2. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Ty France, 1B
5. Jackson Merrill, CF
6. Luis Campusano, C
7. Xander Bogaerts, SS
8. Gavin Sheets, DH
9. Luis Rengifo, LF

Merrill continued his torrid streak in the second half, hitting his 22nd home run of the season in last night’s contest. It’s been a bit of a two-faced performance from the center fielder, but he’s been better as of late, going 4-for-6 in his last two games.

Relief corps

Casey Mize, despite struggling to pitch through five innings, performed better than it seems. Yes, Mize gave up seven runs, but only two of them were earned. The Padres were throwing the ball all over the field for the entirety of the Rays’ five-run fourth inning. That forced Mize to work around the errors (though he himself was the cause of one).

Mize making it through five allowed the Padres’ bullpen to be somewhat untarnished. Only recent returner David Morgan, Wandy Peralta and Griffin Canning were used. Canning was the only one to pitch a scoreless outing of the trio. That will leave Kyle Hart, Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez available for tonight’s game.

The Cincinnati Reds smashed and bashed their way past the Chicago Cubs during Friday’s series opener in Wrigley, taking home an impressive 10-8 victory that may or may not have included them nearly giving the game away late.

Tyler Stephenson smashed a huge 3-run homer. Sal Stewart, Jose Trevino, and even TJ Friedl homered, too, and youngster Hector Rodriguez chipped in with another multi-hit game (with a walk).

Hector, in particular, was a player that stood out. After smashing a pair of homers in the series finale against the San Francisco Giants earlier in the week while batting leadoff, he was dropped to the #9 hole on Friday due to the start of a southpaw by the Cubs. Undeterred, he smashed an RBI-single off lefty David Peterson in the Top of the 4th and finished the game 2 for 3 with a walk, ribbie, and pair of runs scored.

Hector’s on a heater, and manager Terry Francona knows it.

The Reds rookie outfielder is back in the leadoff spot for Saturday’s matinee against the Cubs, playing RF behind starter Andrew Abbott as Cincinnati looks to take the series off their NL Central rivals.

First pitch is set for 2:20 PM ET once again, and here’s how the Reds will line up to start:

Hickory played a pair.

In Game One, Hickory starter Evan Siary allowed five runs in 5.1 IP, including a pair of home runs, walking one and striking out four.

Dewar Tovar was 4 for 4 with a double and a pair of homers. Kaden Carpenter was 2 for 3 with a double, a walk and a stolen base. Yolfran Castillo had a hit. Paulino Santana had a pair of walks and a stolen base.

In Game Two, Moises Morales struck out six and walked one in six innings, allowing one run. Michael Trausch threw a scoreless inning, striking out two and walking two.

Yolfran Castillo was 2 for 4 with a double and a homer. Paulino Santana homered and stole a base. Kaden Carpenter tripled and walked. Marco Argudin had a hit. Daniel Flames was 2 for 4 with a double. Noah Franklin had a double and a walk. Sebastian Baquera and Curley Martha each had a hit.

Hickory Game One box score

Hickory Game Two box score

For Hub City, J’Briell Easley walked two and struck out one in two scoreless innings.

Paxton Kling had a hit, two walks and a stolen base. Maxton Martin was 2 for 4 with a double. Eduardo Mejia had a hit and a walk. Evan Morrison had a hit.

Hub City box score

Bryan Magdaleno started for Frisco, going one inning, walking three, balking twice, hitting a batter, striking out one and allowing two runs. Wilian Bormie struck out one in a scoreless inning. Brock Porter allowed three runs, including a home run, in three innings, striking out five and walking two. Joey Danielson threw three shutout innings, striking out two.

Sebastian Walcott doubled and homered. Malcolm Moore doubled. Rafe Perich had a hit and a walk. Dylan Dreiling doubled.

Frisco box score

For Round Rock, Alexis Diaz walked three and struck out one in a scoreless inning. Josh Sborz allowed a run in an inning of work.

Cam Cauley homered and walked. Alejandro Osuna and Aaron Zavala each had a hit.

Round Rock box score

Diamondbacks News

Diamondbacks Respond Loudly to Even Series
Lars Nootbar had his best game at the plate since his trade tot he Diamondbacks, starting things off with a lead-off home run. Kohl Drake struggled as the lineup turned over. Corbin Carroll also went deep. Gerardo Carrillo, Jonathan Loaisiga, Brandyn Garcia, Dennis Santana and Juan Morillo pushed through five innings with no earned runs and only one hit allowed. The result was the Diamondbacks gaining a game on the Padres in the Wild Card race as the Friars lost and the Diamondbacks held on to win.

Giants’ Vitello, Webb Ejected
The San Francisco Giants’ Tony Vitello was unhappy with a fair/foul call and was run for his complaints. Logan Webb didn’t get the memo right away and had to be invited to join his manager in the clubhouse.

Other Baseball News

DOA MLB Proposal for CBA Talks Includes Some Intriguing Notions
Manfred and the owners are seriously turning on the full-court press in making sure the CBA negotiations collapse entirely and result in a lost season (or more).

MLB Suspends Prospect Over Identity and Age Fraud Plot
Major League Baseball has suspended a once-prized Dominican prospect after uncovering an elaborate age-fraud plot that included a fictitious death and gravesite tombstone, sources familiar with the investigation told ESPN.

Seven Free Agents Who Have Hurt Their Free Agent Stock
This is not the sort of list Zac Gallen wants to be on, yet here he is.

Could Sal Stewart Lead NL in RBI and Still Lose ROY?
It’s a three-way race right now and Stewart might well finish second or third once the season is over.

The New York Yankees, fresh off a close 1-0 victory over the Boston Red Sox in Friday’s opener, are going to play two games against their archrivals on Saturday, which means they had to make some moves to finalize their roster ahead of the twin bill.

The team announced that 27-year-old right-hander Brendan Beck is their “27th Man” ahead of the doubleheader. Cam Schlittler and three relievers combined to shut out the Sox on Friday, so Beck will be available to provide some innings on Saturday if needed. The best-case scenario, of course, is that the Yankees are winning big in a blowout and have the flexibility to use Beck to soak up the final frames. But he can also be a long reliever in a pinch.

Beck has already pitched in two MLB games this season, starting one of them and covering 6.2 frames between the two. He has a bloated 9.45 ERA with seven hits, five walks, and four strikeouts (the first spot start went much better than the second).

Beck has done most of his work in Triple-A, where he has been much better with a 2.75 ERA in 121 innings as a full-time starter. There, he has walked 37 batters and struck out 133. He last pitched on August 15th.

Yesterday, the Yankees revealed that Max Fried will be activated to start Game 2 of the doubleheader, marking a quick return from his second injured list stint. He was placed there on August 17th, retroactive to the 14th, with a left elbow bone bruise.

It turns out the ailment wasn’t overly serious this time around, and the 32-year-old left-hander will be able to return in time to help the Yankees in a key series. For the season, he has a 2.81 ERA in 86.1 innings.

The Yankees still haven’t announced who will be leaving the active roster to make room for Fried. Left-hander Carlos Rodón will start the first game, so they don’t need to change their roster until the nightcap.

Elmer Rodríguez, who started a game on Wednesday and tossed six innings, would have been among the alternatives to be optioned to Triple-A, but manager Aaron Boone just announced that he will start on Monday in Anaheim. So that leaves Yerry De los Santos, Michael Fulmer, and Justin Topa as the most three most likely to leave the roster between games to activate Fried. De los Santos is the only one with options who wouldn’t have to be designated for assignment, so he may be out of luck this time around.

DETROIT –– Shohei Ohtani appears unlikely to make his pitching return with the Dodgers on Sunday, as had been increasingly expected earlier this week, after reporting to the team’s training staff that he still didn’t feel 100% following a bullpen session on Friday.

“That’s the hard part right now, is trying to figure out if he’s not 100% with the overall body, is it worth giving him an inning to build up or not,” manager Dave Roberts said. “So I think that’s kind of where we’re at right now, trying to weigh the positives and negatives.”

According to Roberts, neither the left knee nor right biceps issues Ohtani has dealt with in recent months are completely healed yet.

And while the manager said he still expected Ohtani — who has not made a pitching start since July 3 — to return to the mound soon, he also made it clear the club would be extremely cautious with his health.

“His value offensively is hugely important,” Roberts said of the two-way star, who has continued to serve as the Dodgers’ everyday designated hitter. “So if throwing potentially cuts into that, that’s not worth the squeeze.”

If Ohtani does not start Sunday (the Dodgers have Tyler Glasnow lined up to pitch instead if needed), Roberts said it’s also unlikely that the right-hander would turn right around and pitch in the opening game of the team’s homestand next Tuesday, instead indicating that the club would kick the can farther down the road on Ohtani’s pitching return.

Even if Ohtani starts Sunday, it would only be for one inning.

The longer he waits to make his return to the mound, however, the less time he will have to build up his pitch count over the rest of the regular season.

“I wouldn’t bet against Shohei,” Roberts said. “But I still think that [getting built up to] five innings by the end of the season … that’s an aggressive play.”

Granted, the Dodgers had seemed willing to be aggressive with Ohtani’s buildup over the last several weeks, as he progressed from bullpen sessions to a 30-pitch round of live batting practice last Saturday.

The hope was that, with still a month remaining in the regular season, he would have enough time before the start of the playoffs to get stretched out for full-length starts and resume his place as an anchor in the Dodgers’ starting rotation (he was 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA in 14 starts at the beginning of the season).

But now, uncertainty abounds again, with Ohtani’s ongoing knee and biceps issues continued to leave his pitching plans unclear.

“I think in the moment, yeah, he still feels that there’s an opportunity [to return to a full-time two-way role], and I’m not trying to say there isn’t,” Roberts said. “But I do think at the end of the day, he’s very aware of our roster strengths, weaknesses and his value to the ballclub.”

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Though Jake Bennett takes the mound in the early matchup, it’s nice to have setup man Garrett Whitlock back from the IL. His 2.05 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .203 OBA, 49 strikeouts and seven walks in 44 innings will be helpful as the Sox try to move past the Yanks in the AL East.

Last night was tough but the Sox are tougher. Let’s go.

How to Watch and Listen

First pitch is at 1:05 PM ET on NESN and WEEI.

Lineups

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The Texas Rangers are one of the best teams in the league against left-handed pitching.

That prowess should allow them to cause problems for Shane Drohan, which is why I'm targeting the road team on the run line with my Rangers vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 29.

Who will win Rangers vs Brewers today: Rangers +1.5 (59%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Shane Drohan has posted a xFIP above 4.0 in seven of his last nine starts, and that’s likely to be the case again vs. the Texas Rangers.

They have quietly hit lefties well, owning a Top-10 win percentage vs. left-handed starters. They are also seventh in xwOBA against southpaws in August.

Texas should score against Drohan before the Milwaukee Brewers get to their elite bullpen, and that gives him a great chance of hanging tough in this game.

Cal Quantrill has allowed two runs or less in eight of nine starts he pitched 4+ innings.

Back the Rangers RL to 60%.

COVERS INTEL: Cal Quantrill ranks seventh among today's projected starters with a 3.51 FIP the last month.

Rangers vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (54%)

It isn’t always pretty, but Drohan is effective at limiting the damage in Milwaukee. He has only conceded 3+ runs in four of 17 home starts this season.

The Rangers will test him, but they’re not an overpowering offense that will score relentlessly. The Brewers also have a bullpen capable of clamping things down late.

Quantrill ranks in the 84th percentile in walk rate and has allowed 0.86 HR/9 in pitcher-friendly environments.

That should allow him to avoid big innings, setting up nicely for an Under.

Play to 57%.

Rangers vs Brewers home run prediction: Jake Burger (16%)

Jake Burger crushes left-handed pitching, posting an OPS exactly .200 points higher than against righties.

Drohan doesn’t really have one go-to pitch, throwing five different types more than 10% of the time vs. right-handed bats.

Burger is well-equipped to handle that variety. He has managed a .250 ISO or higher vs. four of the five pitches, only struggling against curveballs.

Righties have hit .333 against Drohan’s curveball so it’s unlikely Burger sees a steady diet.

There’s value up to 17%.

Rangers vs Brewers weather

This game will be played indoors.

Rangers vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Rangers 40% | Brewers 61%
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (58%) | Brewers -1.5 (43%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48% | Under 8.5 (53%)

Rangers vs Brewers trend

The Rangers have hit the Under in 16 of their last 25 games (7.20 units, 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Brewers.

How to watch Rangers vs Brewers and game info

Rangers vs Brewers latest injuries

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The Philadelphia Phillies own an 8-2 record over their last 10 games, and they're in a great spot to continue their winning ways tonight.

With ace Cristopher Sanchez set to start opposite Ryan Johnson, my Phillies vs. Angels predictions and MLB picks are backing Philadelphia to win with room to spare.

Who will win Phillies vs Angels today: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (57%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Los Angeles Angels have hit .217 with a .097 ISO against lefties in August, and it’s hard to imagine things getting any better facing Cristopher Sanchez.

The star southpaw has been lights out all season and enters in great form. He has posted a 2.12 ERA, 2.46 xFIP, and punched out more than 30% of opposing batters the last month.

He shouldn’t need much run support, but he should get it.

The Philadelphia Phillies rank third in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching this month, and Ryan Johnson is an unlikely candidate to slow them.

Play to 57%.

COVERS INTEL:Sanchez ranks in the 93rd percentile in Pitching Run Value, and should have little trouble slowing down a poor Angeles offense.

Phillies vs Angels Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (48%)

Sanchez owns a sparkling 1.34 ERA over eight starts against teams ranking bottom-10 in OBP vs. lefties the previous 20 games. He has also completely neutered his opponent’s power, allowing 0.17 HR/9.

The Angels rank 26th in OBP and ISO during that span, and will not pose much of a threat to Sanchez.

Johnson is vulnerable to giving up power, but the Phillies need to score a lot to push this total Over the number.

I make a fair price closer to 50%.

Phillies vs Angels home run prediction: Kyle Schwarber (32%)

Kyle Schwarber hits for power in waves. With three homers in his last six games, it appears he’s heading toward another heater.

He is in a great spot to deal damage against Johnson. Isolating his three most-used pitches when facing left-handed bats, Schwarber owns a 25% barrel rate over the last 25 games.

Johnson has also allowed a higher barrel rate than any of today’s starters the past month. He is letting hitters square him up, and that’s a recipe for disaster against Schwarber.

Play to 35%.

Phillies vs Angels weather

Temperatures are expected to hover around 80, with light winds. Neutral impact.

Phillies vs Angels odds

• Moneyline: Phillies 69% | Angels 32%
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 (56%) | Angels +1.5 (45%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (54%) | Under 7.5 47%)

Phillies vs Angels trend

Los Angeles has hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+13.35 units, 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Angels.

How to watch Phillies vs Angels and game info

Phillies vs Angels latest injuries

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The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees play the nightcap of Saturday’s doubleheader tonight at 7:15 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium, with New York carrying a 56% win probability on Polymarket.

Max Fried is ready to go for New York. Boston has not officially announced a starter, but the plan is expected to feature an opener before Brayan Bello handles the bulk of the innings.

Who will win Red Sox vs Yankees today: Yankees (57%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

I’m backing the New York Yankees because the expected pitching matchup favors them at both ends

Max Fried owns a 2.81 ERA and has been one of baseball’s best pitchers at preventing damaging contact. He ranks in the 89th percentile in xERA, 99th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.

The Boston Red Soxhave not been producing the type of contact that typically breaks that profile. Its recent batted-ball numbers have generally hovered around league average or worse, while Fried can also force the issue on the ground with an 83rd-percentile ground-ball rate.

The Red Sox's bulk option for Brayan Bello has a much more vulnerable profile. Bello ranks in just the 7th percentile in xERA, 25th percentile in barrel suppression, and 37th percentile in hard-hit suppression.

I think this has value up to 60% with a better overall team who has a good matchup.

COVERS INTEL:Fried already dominated this Boston lineup once this season, throwing eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and only three hits allowed on April 22.

Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (51%)

Fried is the reason I’m willing to back the Under. Boston’s recent contact quality runs directly into a pitcher who ranks in the 99th percentile in barrel suppression and 92nd percentile in hard-hit suppression.

Bello is the volatility on the other side, with just a 25th-percentile barrel rate and 37th-percentile hard-hit rate, but his 90th-percentile ground-ball rate still gives him a path to limiting damage.

I expect New York to do most of the scoring, but Fried should keep Boston quiet enough to hold this below 7.5.

I like this to 50%.

Red Sox vs Yankees home run prediction: Ben Rice (18%)

I like Ben Rice. Bello throws his sinker 40.5% of the time, which lines up well with Rice’s strongest contact profile. Rice owns a .505 xSLG and 51.4% hard-hit rate against sinkers this season.

Additionally, the Boston arm also ranks in the 25th percentile in barrel suppression, so there’s a clear path for Rice to turn one elevated sinker into damage. His left-handed pull power only makes that matchup more appealing at Yankee Stadium.

Red Sox vs Yankees weather

Red Sox vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox 45% | Yankees 55%
• Run line: Red Sox +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Red Sox vs Yankees trend

The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI).  Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox. 

How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info

Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Last night, Brady House hit one of the more impressive home runs I have seen at Nationals Park. In the third inning, House absolutely unloaded on a 99 MPH fastball from Eury Perez. He sent it on to the concourse an estimated 474 feet, well at least at first. It was a perfect swing and an absolutely titanic blast.

There have been plenty of ups and downs in Brady House’s first 145 games as a big leaguer. However, swings like that are what keeps fans dreaming. House has not had the same sort of rapid improvement that we have seen from some hitters, but he has certainly improved. His chase rate is down 3%, his barrel rate is up over 8% and his walk rate is up over 4%. 

These are all important steps in the right direction for a talented but raw hitter. A big reason for these improvements is House having a more defined plan of attack during at bats and before games. After the game, House talked about going into his cage sessions with more of a purpose instead of just swinging to get reps. 

Blake Butera said that he expects to see more power from House as he develops that approach. As we saw last night, raw power is not the problem here. House hits the ball hard consistently, and can hit some absolute moon shots. He has all the raw tools to hit 30 homers, he just needs more refinement. Since he has come back from the minors, he has taken steps in the right direction in that regard.

Speaking of that moon shot, the distance of the homer became a source of slight controversy. At first, the distance was shown as 474 feet, which would be tied for the longest home run by a big leaguer all year. However, that total was changed to 445 feet later on. Interestingly, Heriberto Hernandez also hit a homer 445 feet in the 8th inning. At least to the naked eye, House’s looked like it went significantly further.

For his part, House said that this was probably the furthest he has hit one. It went to an area of Nats Park where you seldom see balls go. Butera said he has seen Andres Chaparro and Andrew Pinckney hit it up there in batting practice, but he had not seen anything like that in a game. Doing it off a 99 MPH heater makes it even more impressive.

Whether it was 474 feet or 445 feet, the point is that Brady House hit an absolute nuke. That was the kind of home run that makes fans come to the ballpark. Just the sound off the bat was different and not something you hear too often. As the ball left House’s bat, the left fielder did not move a muscle and Eury Perez just threw his arm up in disgust. I am not exactly statcast, but I buy the 474 foot mark more.

House is no stranger to long home runs in his career. In the minors, he hit some tape measure shots. I remember one in AAA last year that went 458 feet and hit the top of the batters eye. Ever since he was in high school, Brady House has had the ability to hit majestic homers.

We have seen plenty of flashes from the 23 year old, but we need to see him put it all together. Despite that homer last night, House is still hitting just .183 with a .569 OPS against right handed pitching. Going into next year, House will have to prove he is more than just a platoon bat. 

That mammoth homer is a good place to start, but we still need more consistency. Throughout his career, it feels like House just gets a little bit better every year. He has never made some stratospheric leap, but he has steadily improved. That was also the case this year, as he got noticeably better but still has not truly broken out. 

With more big league reps and another offseason under his belt, I think next season could be the year where House truly establishes himself as a big league regular. It really does need to be the year because we cannot wait forever. Those flashes need to turn into consistency. Home runs like that give you a lot more faith in Brady House though.