Category: Baseball

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With no bullpen help behind him, I am focusing on Spencer Arrighetti in my Royals vs. Blue Jays prediction tonight.

The Toronto Blue Jays walk into this one as -105 betting favorites at BET99 against the Kansas City Royals, looking to win a series and inch closer to a Wild Card spot.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 27, and bring the units home.

Royals vs Blue Jays predictions

Royals vs Blue Jays best bet: Spencer Arrighetti Over 14.5 Outs (-105)

The math is simple here: the Toronto Blue Jays ran through seven arms last night in a full bullpen game — Spencer Arrighetti has no help behind him.

Manager John Schneider has likely already told him the game is his. If Arrighetti is even a bit serviceable tonight, he'll go deep. The one thing we need from him is his command; his 13% walk rate this season is the highest of his career and would, of course, elevate his pitch count.

When he lives in the zone, Arrighetti can be highly effective, as his 31% hard-hit rate is among the best in baseball.

COVERS INTEL: Arrighetti has a short history against this lineup, but he's done a great job in a small sample size, owning a 32% K rate across 25 plate appearances while limiting the Royals to just a .239 xBA.

Royals vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Arrighetti is in a prime spot to pitch into the fifth inning tonight, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded a single in seven of his last nine games.

We'll take those odds. Noah Cameron, for what it's worth, is stellar right now, pitching 14 innings of shutout baseball coming into tonight.

Let's hit our third same-game parlay in the last eight days, shall we?

Royals vs Blue Jays SGP

• Spencer Arrighetti Over 14.5 outs
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 singles
• Blue Jays vs. Royals Under 8.5

Royals vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+365)

With Noah Cameron on the mound, Kazuma Okamoto is the best bet in the Blue Jays lineup to go yard tonight. Against lefties, Okamoto owns a .814 OPS and has hit seven of his 26 homers against southpaws in 232 fewer at-bats.

Let's see one fly tonight at one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball.

Royals vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Toronto (-105) | Kansas City (-115)
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-175) | Kansas City -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)

Royals vs Blue Jays trend

The Under is 4-0-1 in the Blue Jays' last five games against a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Royals vs Blue Jays and game info

Royals vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Royals vs Blue Jays weather

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Worcester: L, 7-1 (BOX SCORE)

Okay, folks, I’ll say it: Since 2022 I’ve disliked the Trevor Story contract. And in 2026, I’m worried about Trevor Story being brought back into this iteration of the Boston Red Sox, a playoff team who can make rallies appear out of thin air. Since arriving in Triple-A, Trevor Story is 4 for 29 with 10 strikeouts; 3 of those 10 came last night in a night when the three rehabbing players all went hitless again. IKF, in a smaller sample size, is hitting no better. The team as a whole had five hits off RailRider (Yankees AAA) pitching; Gage Ziehl had given up almost double that, with two home runs, by the end of the third inning. Just an ugly game all around.

Portland: W, 5-4 (F/13) (BOX SCORE)

I know times have been tough lately for the organization’s pitching depth amidst a ton of injuries, but it should never be okay to ask a position player to come out and get the save. Not even in the thirteenth inning. Not even in a game against a team called the Flying Squirrels. Still, Salem held on for dear life in a back-and-forth game which featured not much offense at all. The game actually went into extras at a 0-0 tie thanks to an awesome start by Hayden Mullins and solid bullpen work out of Max Carlson. Richmond (Giants AA) and Portland traded barbs in the 10th inning, Then, Yoelin Cespedes went and called game with the night’s only home run in the top of the thirteenth. Enter an infielder coming in to Enter Sandman or Hell’s Bell’s; he gave up two runs, but slammed the door… if slamming the door meant also trapping your arm in the door and it ricocheting back closed.

Greenville: L, 5-1 (BOX SCORE)

Jason Gilman struck out ten and pitched into the sixth but the Emperors (Braves High-A) got to the bullpen in short order after Gilman was taken out having given up the tie, and so Gilman was saddled with the loss. The Drive had just one run and struck out fifteen times, but Owen Hull racked up his seventh double in just a couple short weeks of professional baseball.

Salem, Game 1: L, 11-4 (BOX SCORE)

Jesse Foutch didn’t have a great night. It hasn’t happened often to him throughout the year, but it happening in the first three innings of a double-hedaer is brutal. He gave up eleven runs (nine earned) before exiting in the third. Louis Andujar, who went 3-for-3, and Martin Shelar, the team’s ninth-round draft pick, each had a home run. It wasn’t enough to keep up with 11 runs the Woodpeckers (Astros A) scored.

Salem, Game 2: L, 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

A little bit more winnable, especially with Ethan Walker striking out seven and Nicholas Judice getting eight hitless outs in relief, but not so much when you go hitless with runners on (and generate just four attempts) and strand eleven runners, or when it takes until the last out of the game to get a run across the board.

Can you believe we even get to think about something like this?

I don’t remember when I gave up hope for the first time, but I’ll tell you I was pretty close on July 29th, a 4-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. That game marked the first day that FanGraphs had the Mariners playoff odds below 50%. Their record was 53-56.

It certainly was before the Mariners low-water mark this season. On August 11th, 3 days after the club’s 50th anniversary fanfare and pageantry (another embarrassing loss), Seattle lost to the New York Yankees 4-1, dropping their record to 56-64. FanGraphs had their playoff odds at 23.9%.

They lost the next day, too. Then, over their next 13 games, they won 8 games and 3 series (and did it with a total run differential of -29) while Houston went 4-7 and Texas went 6-7. Cal Raleigh went and hit 4 home runs in two nights, and I found myself looking at squiggly lines with hope in my heart again, like an idiot.

As of this morning, with 28 games left to play, Seattle is 64-70, 2 games behind Texas and 2.5 games behind Houston in the division, 4 games behind Cleveland for the third wild card spot (lol) and have playoff odds of 42.1%.

Mariners fans’ hearts have historically strong when presented with reasons to hope, but the last few years of sporadically good baseball may have melted some of our resolve. One simply must wonder: can this team do it?

The staff weighed in on their personal Hope/Cope-ometer placement, with the scale below for reference, and our composite final, official hope ranking at the end. -NV

John:

There’s a mantra in scouting, on the 20-80 scale, that a grade of 65 is utter cowardice. With a 50 as big league average, most players will see their skills fall between a 40-60. Standard deviations, bell curves, things of that nature. So when you see something more impressive than most, you should be confident. The Mariners are playing like they were expected to most nights, they have a strong setup for the home stretch, and the teams they are chasing are donkeys in dumpsters. More to the point, if the Mariners are to make the playoffs, it will only be possible by playing at a caliber befitting of a playoff running club.

Hope Rating: 8

Isabelle:

When I take longtime former roommate and CTA (certified troublemaking asshole) corgi, Cedar, on walks, we only ever stroll peacefully and in unison for a handful of minutes. The rest of the time is spent with him yanking repeatedly at the leash to get closer to whomever or whatever he’s screaming at, or dragging him bodily up hills (no corgis were actually harmed on any of these walks) because he’s petulant about the direction we’ve gone/the fact I yelled at him about hollering at an ancient Labrador/how I deprived him of enough sniffing time/any myriad of other wrongdoings. This is the closest comparison I can make for this season to something I have actively experienced. I imagine it’s also not dissimilar to when you bungee jump off a bridge and do that painful-looking ricochet up and down a few times due to said bungee.

All that to say, I’m a 6. Please know that prior to attending Tuesday’s game, I had this as a 4. (Oh god, there comes the ground.) Maybe I’ll change it back again before it actually pubs. (Oh wait, now we’re soaring back up to the sky.)

Nicky V:

It feels as though we live in a pessimistic world at times. Call it the new media environment, call it the rise of social media, call it the reality of being a Mariners fan, but regardless of what’s to blame, I can’t say that watching this season of Mariners Baseball has often been an exercise in escapism, or has made me feel, like, better than I did before turning on the game. It’s been comfy, though! Bad Mariners baseball feels like home, an unfortunate & revealing wound on my/our collective psyche.

Even more unfortunate, Cal Raleigh hit 4 home runs in the last two days (as I write this), George Kirby looks vintage, Canzone is out of platoon jail, so goddamnit, I’m starting to believe in the Seattle Mariners. They don’t have to do much over this final stretch to beat out Houston and Texas and put the West back in the AL West. I think they can do it. The Mariners might win every series the rest of the season with an average run differential of minus-8 per set, and win the AL West.

Hope Rating: 7/10. I think they make a decent run and lose in 5 in the ALDS.

Kate: 

In scouting they call a 45 a coward’s grade: you don’t think the prospect is bad, exactly, but you don’t think they’re good, either; some scouting departments think any grade that ends in a 5 is cowardly, trying to split the difference between projections (“fringe-average” rather than just “average” or “below average”). Typical Kate behavior, yes, why pick one thing when can pick two.

I fully acknowledge that a 5/10 is a coward’s grade to put on the old Hope-o-meter, resting exactly in the middle. But that’s not my fault, that’s the fault of the 2026 Seattle Mariners, who have Lucy-and-the-footballed me all year, seeming to promise to turn things around only to sink back down in the offensive doldrums. I’m on the record as having complained about this team’s lack of consistency all season, and while occasionally that helps them – like bouncing back for a win after getting the stuffing kicked out of them the night before – it also makes it hard to project this team putting together any kind of run going forward, which is what it would take for them to make it to the playoffs. But since no one seems to have any interest in winning the AL West, I can’t go much below 45 – and hey, Emerson Hancock was a 45 grade as a prospect, so maybe there’s hope yet.

Hope Rating: 5/10

Bee:

I have never had an interest in rooting for a super-team. Yes, comfortable wins are nice, and I would like the Mariners to win more than they lose. Someday I would like to see that culminate in a World Series win. But… I don’t need it. What I need is for baseball to be fun, for it to feel like the team at least has a chance. When that chance has been slim, the odds stacked against them? Those have been my favorite moments of Mariners success. When the deck seems stacked against a gritty team of grinders, and the hard effort, the heart, wins the day. 

Admittedly, because of my own life issues putting me on the IL of baseball fandom, I didn’t watch as much of the first half of the season as I would have liked. My first recap of the year was only just over a week ago, game three against the Houston Astros. Even from a distance I could tell the first half of the season was a bit of a miserable slog for all of those involved. Whether because of that or despite it, after re-engaging with following the team the last several weeks, I actually have a lot of hope for them trending upward through the rest of the season. That’s because, often for better and sometimes for the absolute, truly, terribly, the worst, the team has been fun in that time. The remaining twilight of the season grows dimmer, but the team genuinely feels like it is starting to play like they realize it. It’s easy to and is often said as a Mariners fan that it would be just like the team to make the playoffs, or win it all, in the most bizarre and possibly stressful way possible. Usually, it rings of grief; the most common way it is said is to inject acceptance, or maybe it is bargaining. I choose to embrace it. This team is weird, and kinda broken… and that’s where they thrive. The whole AL West is broken, sure… but we have home field advantage.

Hope Rating: 6.9/10

Anders:

It’s pretty wild we’re having the playoff conversation at all considering this is probably the worst vibes season since…2019? There’s absolutely zero reason that the Mariners deserve to make the playoffs, and yet here we are.

It’s pretty upsetting to consider the AL West might send a below .500 team to the playoffs. One time when I was in a high school musical competition, the judges ruled that nobody was good enough to win. They straight up refused to name a winner. Can we not do that here? Because even if this Mariners team technically has a good shot to make it, I’m not sure I want them representing the organization or division in this capacity.

I exaggerate, of course. I would be thrilled if they won the division even if it felt icky. And honestly, with how they’ve been playing over the last week (games started by Bryce Miller notwithstanding), and looking at their September schedule…I dunno, guys! Besides, this is the hope score, not the worthiness score. There’s enough to legitimately hope for with a month to go. 

Hope Rating: 5/10

Eric:

During the 50th anniversary golden turd jubilee weekend where the Mariners got swept by the Rays, I was finally ready to give up on any playoff hopes for this team. Even with the mostly soft September schedule, they just seemed far too hurt and mostly listless to imagine them turning it around. Randy and Cole Young cannot will this offense to the postseason by themselves, although Randy is trying his damnedest. 

But given their recent week-ish stretch of much improved play (blowouts aside), Kade Anderson’s excellent debut, J.P. returning from the IL, Julio warming up, and Cal’s four dingers in 2 games…well…

My playoff mustache is in effect and I’m keeping hope alive until they’re dead. Go Mariners.

Hope rating: 6/10

James:
If you asked me to rate my hope before the start of the Cubs series, I probably would’ve landed somewhere between four and five. Though I am cautious to jump to any conclusions based on only a few games, I do feel like the last several days have helped me better envision the September run that will be necessary for the Mariners. I think many people, myself included, were beginning to accept 2026 as a lost season for Cal; if a late-season turnaround continues to materialize, then that changes the outlook quite a bit in my view.

After next Wednesday, the remaining games are as follows: 14 games against the bad teams in one of the worst divisions in baseball history, five games against your similarly mediocre counterparts in one of the worst divisions in baseball history, and three games against the Colorado Rockies. As long as the Mariners don’t dig a much deeper hole in the coming week — and the way they’ve played in recent days has helped quell that fear — their season will ultimately come down to divisional games. They are already 20-13 in such games this year and have held the best intradivision record in the AL West each of the past three seasons. I’d argue they also have the most upside of the contenders. While they aren’t out of the woods yet and probably enter September trailing, it seems more likely now than a couple of weeks ago that the division title will remain within reach in the final month.

Hope rating: 6/10

ZachMason

My head looks at how badly this team has played despite its talent and potential and tells me they’re more likely to miss the playoffs than make them. But no matter what I think, I can’t escape how I feel when Julio’s bat connects with the ball. Playoff odds are over at FanGraphs. You asked for a hope rating, and hope lives in the heart.

Hope rating: 8/10

Ryan

I don’t think the Mariners are good at hitting, pitching, fielding, or base running, and I think they deserve their place at six games under .500. But they have the weakest strength of schedule remaining, according to FanGraphs. That also implies their schedule to this point has been rather difficult. Over the last few weeks, they’ve played the best, second best, third best, fifth best, sixth best and seventh best teams in the majors – pretty much every team that figures to matter in October. Maybe we’ll feel different about this roster after they get a chance to beat up on some bottom dwellers. The snarky Mariners-fan in me wants to say, “maybe we’ll feel much, much worse.” But I kind of don’t think so. I think they’ll finish out the year strong and win the division. And from there, who knows.
Hope rating: 7/10

Composite LL Staff Hope Barometer: 6.5/10

You heard it here first: The Looking Landing staff believes the Mariners are going to make the playoffs. We’re coping here, folks. Are you?

.302/.355/.487.

That was Trea Turner’s career slash line prior to joining the Phillies ahead of the 2023 season.

A .302 career batting average. A .355 on base percentage. A .487 slugging percentage.

Can you imagine what the Phils’ offense would be like if that Trea Turner ever made it to Philadelphia?

After another 0-fer, this time a hitless day in five plate appearances on Wednesday, Turner’s spiraling 2026 season sends him to Anaheim this weekend with a .291 OBP that ranks 127th out of 138 qualified MLB players, a .671 OPS that ranks 131st, and a 0.7 fWAR that is 123rd. According to Baseball Reference, his bWAR is -0.2.

Frankly, I believe the bWAR number to be the more accurate one.

In his last 16 games, he’s hitting .152 with a .243 OBP and an OPS of .471. He has struck out 18 times and walked seven times. He is 0-for-his-last 17 and his defense has fallen into a black hole again.

He did reportedly have a conversation with former Seattle star Ichiro Suzuki last week, so I guess that’s somethin’!

Since he became a Phillie three years ago, Turner’s slash line is .277/.327/.443.

He can still run, at least.

Far too often, Bryce Harper has come to the plate this season with the bases empty in front of him. While Kyle Schwarber has struggled a bit in since the All Star Break (.211/.335/.453 slash line), he and his season-long .358 OBP isn’t the problem. After Wednesday’s 6-0 win over the Mariners, Don Mattingly was asked if there has been any consideration about moving Turner down from his No. 2 spot in the lineup, given his on-base deficiencies (quotes via On Pattison).

“Yeah, it’s kind of like the same for me. Kinda of what we’ve been doing is where we’ve had success. We’ve been consistent,” Mattingly continued. “I think we all know that Trea’s gonna come out of this. And when he does, it’ll be hot.

“You see it with Schwarb. We’ve seen it with Harp. You see it with Arraez, had a few days there where it was not good. You just gotta hang in with guys over the course of a season. And if there’s a point where it’s like, ‘OK, this has gotta go,’ then you get there. But right now, for me, I don’t know why we’re gonna … it feels like panic. It feels like to guys it’s panic when you start making changes like that late in the year.”

Mattingly is trying to pump up his veteran shortstop and show he still has confidence in him. I get that. But moving Turner out of the No. 2 spot in the lineup would not be a “panic” move. Nearly five months of the season have been completed. Waiting until 80% of your season is done to move a player with the 11th-worst on-base percentage out of a high leverage spot in the lineup isn’t “panicking.” One could argue, it’s long overdue.

And frankly, if Mattingly had another option, he probably would have made it by now. He can see what everyone else sees. Trea Turner has been a bad baseball player this season and should be hitting lower in the lineup.

But were Mattingly to do that, who hits in between Schwarber and Harper?

On its surface, Bryson Stott makes the most sense. Since the start of June, Stott’s OBP is .387. He is one of the best on the team at getting on base, he doesn’t strike out much, and can provide some pop at the top of the lineup. He’s also athletic enough to steal a base here and there and, more importantly, go first-to-third or second-to-home with the boppers in the lineup hitting behind him.

But Stott is left-handed. Were he to hit in between Schwarber and Harper, with left-hander Luis Arraez hitting fourth and Justin Crawford hitting in the No. 9 hole, it would put five straight lefties in the lineup. In the regular season against a non-ace, right-handed pitcher, that may not be a big deal. But it’s not a formula that will work in the postseason. Teams will load up left-handed relievers against that run of lefties, making life very difficult on the lineup.

To be fair, Turner’s presence in the lineup hasn’t helped much against left-handers, and Stott is hitting .295/.380/.442 with an .822 OPS against left-handers this year, a massive improvement of an area of weakness throughout his career. Turner, meanwhile, is batting .213/.303/.311 against left-handed pitching. Both players have reverse splits, although Turner’s numbers against everyone, no matter which hand they throw with, are awful.

So if a change were to be made, Stott is probably the answer, especially against right-handed starters.

But a right-handed hitter would be ideal in order to break up the lefties. So if not Turner, who?

Alec Bohm has certainly come on over the last few weeks, but he would be ill-fit to hit in the No. 2 spot in the lineup. His at-bats have been better over the last few weeks, but he’s far better suited to hitting in the bottom half of the lineup. Bohm is simply not a long-term, October solution. J.T. Realmuto’s OBP has been sub-.300 all season long (.298 currently), so no upgrade there, and while Bryan de la Cruz and Derek Hill are contributing as part-time platoon players, you’re not putting either of them at the top of the lineup no matter how well they’ve hit of late.

So, unless you want to make Stott the No. 2 and have a parade of left-handers at the top of the lineup, hoping adjustments are coming from Turner is still probably Mattingly’s best bet.

On the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, I discussed the Trea Turner situation and recapped an interesting series against the Mariners in Seattle by the Phillies.

We are closing in on September call-up season, and to be honest, it snuck up on me. On September 1, rosters expand from 26 players to 28, meaning the Kansas City Royals can add two more guys to the Major League roster. Last September was an exciting time; the Royals called up then-#2 prospect Carter Jensen, and we got to see the young catcher start his career on a high note.

I don’t think the Royals will call up someone quite as high-profile as Jensen this season. Most of their top prospects are lower in the minor league system and farther away from the majors. Still, the opportunity to evaluate fresh talent is always exciting, and we’re doing our best to stay excited and engaged around here. So, who are some of the players Kansas City might call up this September?

Guys we’ve already seen

Josh Rojas – Rojas is the only minor-league position player currently on the 40-man roster, making him a logical candidate to come up. However, as fun as his first game as a Royal was, this wouldn’t be the most thrilling addition.

Lucas Erceg – The Royals could really use 2024 Erceg back. It’s hard to say whether a brief stint in Omaha fixed his mechanics, but perhaps a quick mental reset was all he needed.

Mitch Spence – Spence issued more walks than strikeouts over the 9.1 innings we’ve seen from him in Kansas City. His Triple-A numbers don’t exactly blow you away either, but he’s on the 40-man, and the Royals are almost certainly going to add at least one arm.

Easton McGee – I have no memory of McGee’s 5.1 innings that he’s pitched for the Royals. The internet tells me he surrendered two home runs in just four appearances. He does manage to rack up a decent number of strikeouts, at least.

Carlos Durán – Durán would easily be the most electric arm of this group to get the nod. He might not always know where the ball is going, but he throws absolute heat and has put up impressive strikeout numbers in the minors.The Royals have prioritized getting big guys who throw the ball hard and Durán fits this mold. 

You can never have too many pitchers

Nolan Hoffman – Acquired from the Phillies in August, the southpaw generates plenty of groundballs alongside a solid strikeout rate, though command remains an issue. Hoffman also had more walks than strikeouts during his few innings with the Philadelphia Phillies this year. 

Luke Little – Little is a 6-foot-8 lefty who sits at 95 mph with truly wild command. A staggering 21.1% of the batters he’s faced in the majors this season have reached base via walk or hit-by-pitch. I kind of want to watch the chaos.

Steven Zobac – Zobac is currently in Double-A, but the Royals added him to the 40-man roster over the offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Unfortunately, he was placed on the Injured List earlier this month, and with his injury past, they probably won’t rush him back.

Tony Gonsolin – Gonsolin just started his rehab assignment, striking out three over three scoreless frames. A September 1st call-up might be overly aggressive, but he could be an option later in the month as injuries pile up elsewhere. I’m ready to be way too excited about Gonsolin for 2027. 

Extra bats

Brett Squires – Squires has posted an OPS right around .900 across both Double-A and Triple-A this season. He primarily plays first base, a position that’s already crowded on the big-league club. I think he will be mashing overseas in a few years, but you never know.

Gavin Cross – Cross just returned to Omaha following an injury and immediately homered in his first game back. His overall numbers may look just okay, but he’s hitting .332/.386/.629 with 12 home runs in his last 46 games. He’s been locked in since July and would easily generate the most buzz among the fanbase if he gets the call.

Lucas Braun – Acquired from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Lane Thomas and Bailey Falter, Braun looks like a candidate to compete for rotation starts next season. Getting a brief MLB look at the end of the year would make a lot of sense.

Carson Roccaforte – Having just earned a promotion to Omaha, a September jump for Roccaforte seems unlikely. Still, the center fielder could push for a roster spot next spring thanks to his elite defense and some power that produced 30 home runs at Double-A. I wonder how close Roccaforte is today to giving the Royals the same production they get out of Kyle Isbel. 

Who would you like to see the Royals call up next week? Let us know in the comments!

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It's a small seven-game MLB slate on Thursday, but one that's headlined by a massive National League matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves.

Our Covers experts bring you the best MLB picks on the board, including one for that much-anticipated battle between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale in Atlanta.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: Royals moneyline	-104odds/odds
Jon Metler: Dodgers moneyline	+100odds/odds
Dustin Saracini: WAS/COL o9.5	-113odds/odds

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Royals moneyline

Price: 51¢ at Polymarket

The Royals failed to record their 10th straight win, but have a big edge today as a slight road dog in the series finale. This Blue Jays offense has been broken all year, and more than 21% of their wins have come while scoring three or fewer runs, like last night, and they could be giving up runs and not having the offense to make up for it.

Spencer Arrighetti lasted just 10 outs in his Jays debut and threw 61 pitches while giving up three runs. His bullpen is more than depleted. I really don't know who's going to be available today, as six bullpen arms threw more than 30 pitches yesterday or have thrown on back-to-back days.

It could be Arighetti to Simeon Woods Richardson for 21 outs, but SWR has thrown 21, 20, and 29 pitches in his last three appearances. The Jays don't have the arms to keep this a low-scoring affair and also have zero left-handed options out of the pen. I have this fair price at 56%.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Sportsnet

Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline

Price: 50¢ at Polymarket

This is about as close to appointment television as you can get, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Chris Sale in a matchup between two of the NL's best teams. The Braves are going for the sweep today, and I've been on the wrong side of their wins in this series, but I'm going back to the Dodgers on the moneyline. The Dodgers are trading at 50 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53-cent favorite, giving us enough of an edge to get back on the Dodgers.

Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but I think the swing paths of several Dodgers hitters give them a better chance to generate offense than the market is pricing in. Sale's sweeping slider can be a nightmare for hitters, but Mookie Betts' compact hands and Freddie Freeman's short, inside-out swing give this lineup the tools to handle his breaking stuff and generate just enough offense to get the job done.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: FS1

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Nationals/Rockies o9.5

Price: 53¢ at Polymarket

How about some matinee baseball? And how about some early afternoon offense? That's exactly what we're looking at in this pitching matchup between the Rockies and Nationals. Gabriel Hughes, who comes into this one for Colorado having coughed up 22 runs across his last five starts, will be in tough against a team with the third-highest wRC+ in baseball coming off an embarrassing 13-1 loss.

It doesn't get better for Nats starter Jake Irvin, whose 45% hard-hit rate, 5.38 xERA, and .464 xSLG are among the worst in baseball. With a Washington bullpen that ran through five arms last night, this could get ugly quick. I'd play this up to 55 cents at Polymarket

• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Rockies.TV/Nationals.TV

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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Friday Jr. has arrived, and we just have seven games to sink our teeth into this evening.

Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for today's small slate, featuring some underdogs in great spots on Thursday, Aug. 27.

Before we dive in, be sure to check out our MLB picks to see where our experts see value!

MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 27

Matchup	Pick
COL vs WSH	+119
BAL vs STL	-121
HOU vs NYY	+146
KC vs TOR	-107
MIL vs NYM	-219
LAD vs ATL	+109
AZ vs SF	-103

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Aug. 27.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 27

Rockies vs Nationals: Rockies (+109)

Rockies win probability: 44%

It is basically Friday, so why not kick the weekend off early by taking an underdog with some bite?

The Rockies have had a strong week, with Hunter Goodman going back-to-back games with a home run.

Offensively, they sport a .334 wOBA, .749 OPS and 103 wRC+ over their last six games. During that stretch, Washington has just an 82 wRC+, .126 ISO, and a hard-hit rate just under 30%.

Both starters on the mound in this matchup have been pretty brutal, to say the least. Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin has been allowing a ton of hard-hit balls all season long while holding a 5.70 ERA.

Gabriel Hughes has similar numbers, but at least he limits hard-hit and barreled balls, which is why the Rockies (+109) are the look here.

Orioles vs Cardinals: Orioles (-121)

Cardinals win probability: 53%

Let's keep this one nice and sweet. If you have not been paying attention, Pete Alonso and the Baltimore Orioles have been on a heater this week — scoring 21 runs over the past two nights.

Sure, they won 8-7 last night, but I would not even put you in front of this freight train.

Trevor Rogers has had his ups and downs this season, and his most recent outings have been a little queasy, as he owns a 4.04 xERA over his last three starts. However, over his last five, he has a 2.85 xERA and a 3.55 xERA overall on the road this season.

The Cardinals are far better against southpaws, but there is a more attractive bird playing today.

Astros vs Yankees: Astros (+146)

Astros win probability: 41%

There is no interest in paying above $1.60 for Gerrit Cole and the Yankees to secure a win here.

Astros right-hander Hayden Wesneski has strong underlying metrics pointing to improvement, including a 2.78 xERA, 40% hard-hit rate, and 8.89% barrel rate over his last three starts.

This is also a strong matchup for Yordan Alvarez if Cole actually throws to him and does not walk the Astros' biggest offensive threat.

Either way, at nearly +150, it is worth the risk.

Royals vs Blue Jays: Royals (-107)

Royals win probability: 52%

Tears of joy are currently falling, as we get to take advantage of Blue Jays right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who has been god-awful all season long.

To give the man some credit, he does own a 3.82 xERA across his last three starts. However, during that stretch, he has a staggering 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

The Royals' lineup is filled with left-handed power, and with Arrighetti owning a 13.50 ERA, 9.10 xERA, and 8.14 xFIP against the last 30 lefties he has faced, it is the Royals today.

Brewers vs Mets: Brewers (-219)

Brewers win probability: 66%

Jacob Misiorowski. Is that enough? No?

Sean Manaea. Still need more? Fine. 

The Mets and Brewers' bats have racked up similar numbers over the last week, but their pitchers are in different galaxies at the moment. If you live under a rock, the Brewers' right-hander has been wheeling and dealing all summer long.

The Mets' seasoned left-hander currently holds a 5.29 xERA over his last five starts while allowing nearly a 50% hard-hit rate and nearly a 20% barrel rate to opposing hitters. Take the run line. 

For more plays on this game, check out our Brewers vs. Mets predictions.

Dodgers vs Braves: Dodgers (+109)

Dodgers win probability: 48%

Game of the night, as 2025 World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Braves southpaw Chris Sale take the mound this evening.

Some may argue the books know something, but football is on; they are asleep. The Braves have had a strong week against the Dodgers. However, you do not get too many games where the Dodgers are underdogs. Take the dog.

Diamondbacks vs Giants: Giants (-103)

Giants win probability: 50%

Both Jose Cabrera and Landon Roupp have been pretty untrustworthy this season, but with how hot the Giants have been over the last week, snagging them at $1.03 to secure the win this evening feels worth backing.

Over their last six games, the team in the Bay has a 129 wRC+, .352 wOBA, and .802 OPS while generating over a 47% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate.

Giants.

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RHP Mike Burrows made his third major league rehab appearance with Sugar Land on Wednesday night and tossed 4.1 innings, allowing seven hits and three runs while walking two and striking out seven.

His seven strikeouts marked a high with Sugar Land on his Major League rehab assignment and was his first game with at least seven strikeouts since April 25, when he struck out seven against the New York Yankees while with Houston.

Burrows began his night by retiring the first two batters in the last of the first, but a two-out infield single brought up Joey Meneses, who hit a two-run home run to left field to give Las Vegas an early 2-0 lead.

Burrows bounced back to face the minimum in the second inning before striking out the side in the third and throwing a scoreless fourth to record three straight innings without allowing a run.

In the 5th, he surrendered a leadoff home run to Johnathan Rodriguez before retiring Meneses on a fly ball to center. Burrows was then lifted from the game after 4.1 IP.

Burrows is likely to return to Astros when rosters expand September 1st.

Burrows threw 77 pitches, 52 for strikes. He induced 4 groundball outs and 2 flyouts.

It should be noted that last night’s game took place at Las Vegas Ballpark. The park is known for being an extreme homer haven, with balls soaring through the hot desert air. Last night’s game temperature was 104 degrees.

Every game not started by Cade Cavalli has just become constant pain and misery. Last night, the team stooped to a low, losing 13-1 against the 52-81 Colorado Rockies. Since the trade deadline, this team lost all the spirit and soul that made them an exciting team to watch in the first half. Was it all worth it? I guess only time will tell.

There have been plenty of ugly defeats recently, but last night takes the cake. They came out flat, uninspired and not ready to play. That is an assessment that Blake Butera agrees with me on, saying the team “did not play all that hard” last night.

He has been hesitant to call out the team’s effort during this skid, but he had no choice tonight. While the Rockies were hustling and taking the extra base, the Nats were sluggish. The most notable example of that came when a ball fell in the twilight but Andres Chaparro could not score because he was jogging around the bases and Jose Tena almost got thrown out at second because he was ball watching.

The honeymoon period is officially over for this new regime after the way this month has gone. It may have been a smart move on paper to sell, but the fact the team can’t win a single game that isn’t started by Cade Cavalli is making things awkward. Fans are asking if it was all worth it to break up the best offense in the league for decent but not elite pitching prospects.

From a watchability perspective, things have sure taken a massive hit. That is not just due to the loss of talent either. They also just are not playing the same type of hard charging baseball that made them a likable bunch. Losing 13-1 against the Rockies is not a talent related issue, it is an effort problem as well. 

You can see when a lot of these hitters get out, they are not even mad anymore, just resigned. In particular, that is something I am seeing with CJ Abrams, who is really going through it right now. He is a player who is at his best when he is feeling good and has something to play for beyond just doing his job. Right now, you can see how discouraged he is.

That is not excusing Abrams’ poor performances, but I get why he is unhappy right now. In the midst of a career year, he was asked to change positions while the team around him was collapsing and he had to carry an even bigger offensive load with James Wood out.

Do I wish Abrams handled this all a little better? Yes I do, but it is a tough situation for him and the rest of the team. Vibes are contagious and so is hitting. Right now the Nats do not have any of that for 80% of the games they play.

It is only 80% because that magic comes back every time Cade Cavalli takes the ball. They have been winning when he starts, but that is the only time they win. The last time the Nats won a non-Cavalli start was August 9th. If you take out the Cavalli starts, the Nats have lost 12 games in a row.

The main feeling I have right now is sadness. To see such a promising season totally go up in smoke is such a shame. It felt like the Nats had a direction for the first time since 2019, but that feeling is gone. Maybe that will come back next season with guys like Ben Grable and Connelly Early leading the way, but for now that trade deadline is leaving a bad taste in Nats fans mouths.

Since the Curtis Mead trade the Nats are 9-21 and since the deadline and the James Wood injury they are 7-15. We knew that there would be a fall-off after losing all this offensive talent, but I did not realize it would be this significant. For me, that shows this collapse is more than just the talent that went out of the building.

It also speaks to a leadership void in the clubhouse. Since Mead, Garcia and Griffin left, nobody has stepped into their shoes on or off the field besides Andres Chaparro. The charisma that Garcia brought and the exceptional baseball knowledge that Mead and Griffin brought are badly missed in the clubhouse right now.

As we enter the final month of games, the Nats are a team that is trying to pick up the pieces of what once was a promising season. It feels like we are back to square one where the team is trying to find an identity and there are no signs of contention in sight. Just a month ago, this team did have an identity and a core of offensive pieces, but that has been broken up. 

In the short term, the impact has been disastrous. However, these moves were made with a long term vision in mind. Paul Toboni better be right about these moves being fruitful in the long term because this is ugly. I still have belief in this regime but the honeymoon period is over. They need to win back a weary fanbase and show that this team can become relevant again in 2027 and beyond.

34 Years Ago Today

On August 27, 1992, the Blue Jays acquired David Cone from the Mets in a trade. This was the first of two times the Jays traded for Cone. In exchange, Jeff Kent and Ryan Thompson were sent to New York.

At the time of the trade, the Jays held a 72-55 record, leading the Orioles by two games in the AL East. They finished the season 24-11 after the trade.

Kent played for the Mets until the end of July 1996, after which he was traded to Cleveland. He later joined the Giants, where he blossomed into a star. And recently, he became a Hall of Famer.

He was a solid player for the Mets, hitting .279/.327/.453 with 67 home runs in 498 games—a strong performance for a second baseman.

Thompson played for the Mets through the 1995 season, posting a .239/.300/.417 line with 39 home runs over 283 games.

Cone posted a 4-3 record with a 2.55 ERA in eight games (seven starts) down the stretch for the Jays. He started twice in the ALCS, going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA, and made two starts in the World Series, finishing with no decisions and a 3.48 ERA.

Winning the World Series ultimately validated the trade for the Blue Jays. Kent likely wouldn’t have received the playing time in Toronto needed to reach the level he achieved with the Giants.

The Jays acquired Cone again at the start of the 1995 season, but that year did not turn out as successfully.

26 Years Ago Today

Darrin Fletcher belted three solo home runs against the Rangers, propelling the Jays to a 6-4 victory. That season, Fletcher hit 20 home runs in 122 games.

Fletcher was a favorite of mine—a left-handed-hitting catcher with decent power. While he wasn’t known for his defense and his arm was below average, pitchers still seemed to like throwing to him.

The win improved the Jays’ record to 68-62, leaving them third in the AL East and 5.5 games back. Ultimately, they couldn’t close the gap and finished the season 83-79, still in third place.

We had some good players on that team:

Teams in need of some late-minute help for their playoff push may be in luck.

The Reds placed third baseman Eugenio Suarez and outfielder TJ Friedl on outright waivers, per The Athletic, opening the door for them to land with a contender for the final month of the season.

Teams can claim either player and assume the remainders of their respective contracts, but they otherwise would stay with Cincinnati if there are no takers in a 48-hour window.

The Reds could also still release both players if they go unclaimed.

While the trade deadline is the final time teams can trade for players since the elimination of the waiver trade period, these kind of moves open the door for players to find new homes.

The Angels caused a stir in 2023 when they placed six players on waivers and five landed with new teams, while the Yankees also lost Harrison Bader to the Reds due to the same mechanism.

Los Angeles’ tactic deviated from the norm due to the startling amount of players placed on waivers and that some of them had been enjoying solid seasons.

The two players the Reds could lose are not having strong seasons, and The Athletic reported that Cincinnati is considering possible financial savings.

Friedl and Suarez are reportedly also not expected to be with the team in 2027.

Suarez, the bigger name of the two, is slashing just .208/.295/.410, although he has 19 homers and 57 RBIs.

The 35-year-old reportedly is owed less than $3 million for the remainder of the year, and has a $16 million mutual option for the 2027 season.

Suarez, a righty, owns a .715 OPS versus righties and a .668 OPS against lefties, which does not offer much value to contending teams.

Friedl, 26, owns a .476 OPS across 253 plate appearances this year and is unlikely to be offered a contract by the Reds in arbitration, per The Athletic.

His shocking OPS makes him one of the worst players in baseball this year since Washington’s Nasim Nunez’s .547 mark is the lowest among qualified players.

The Reds (63-71) entered Thursday nine games back in the NL wild-card race.

Good morning! A few days ago we showed you a poll in which Willson Contreras finished in fourth in an early look at the AL MLVP race. But he wasn’t the only Red Sox player who received votes in that poll. Ceddanne Rafaela, who’s not all that far from Bobby Witt, Jr. in the AL bWAR race, was also named on the ballot. Wilyer Abreu wasn’t, but he’s fifth in the AL in bWAR, just behind Ceddy and ahead of Willson and he could get a vote or two when the real voting concludes.

It wouldn’t be the first time that three Red Sox players received MVP votes in one season, if they all end up on the list. But it is very rare that the Sox land three position players on the list. Last year’s AL MVP race saw Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapman receive votes. In 2021, Rafael Devers finished 11th, Xander Bogearts 12th, and Nate Eovaldi 15th. You have to go back to the dominant 2018 team to find three position players who received votes, with Mookie winning the hardware, of course and Chris Sale rounding out the vote-getters. In light of the fact that the roster sure looked weighted towards pitchers from day one — not to mention the fact that the Sox spent much of the season as one of the lowest-scoring teams in baseball — it would be quite the achievement for three hitters to match that 2018 team.

Talk about awards voting and whatever else you want in this space and, as always, be good to one another.

Morning, all!

Former Ranger manager Jeff Banister was involved in a shouting match between Arizona Diamondbacks’ coaches and the Chicago Cubs on Monday after Arizona accused the Cubs of stealing signs.

Apparently the secret to Justin Foscue’s success, like the secret of flying in Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, is to not think about it too much.

And speaking of classic literature, Nathan Eovaldi’s return from the IL is a deep, dark mystery that no one has any answers about just like Yossarian’s liver in Catch 22.

And, similar to The Mist, you may think the authors of the 2026 Ranger season are setting up some sort of miraculous ending that gets the protagonists to safety but you would be wrong.

Makenzie Gore followed up Jacob deGrom’s uncharacteristically poor outing with a poor outing of his own, giving up four runs on eight hits and four walks last night.

Dylan Drieling is making AA pitching his bitch.

Shutout wins, high-scoring wins—the Dodgers’ minor-league affiliates had it all in an eventful Wednesday with five games since the Comets had a doubleheader on the schedule.

Player of the day

It didn’t lead to a victory, and just 58 pitches show he still has some ways to go early, but it’s difficult not to get too excited about what Gavin Stone has been doing in Oklahoma City.

Stone has allowed just four hits in 11.2 innings across four starts, and in his previous two outings, we’re talking about a single baserunner in seven innings, walking none and allowing just one hit.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Stone continues to impress with yet another scoreless outing. Sadly, shortly after Stone was removed from the game, reliever Nick Robertson imploded in the sixth inning to give up the lead. And while the Comets stayed in it thanks to a Hyeseong Kim sac fly in the same frame, they were outscored in the eighth to take the 5-4 loss.

Speaking of talented young pitchers, one of the main differences in the Comets shutting out the Chihuahuas in the other game of this doubleheader was the performance of Bobby Miller. The young right-hander followed a scoreless start from Christian Romero with three scoreless frames out of the bullpen, punching out five and walking none. Cleanup hitter Ryan Fitzgerald hit a two-run bomb as part of a six-run effort.

Double-A Tulsa

Outhomering the opposition four to zip, it’s actually a wonder that the Drillers didn’t build a bigger lead than this final result of 8-4, beating the Rockhounds on the road. Josue De Paula hit his 26th bomb of the campaign and was joined by a ferocious bottom of the order, as ninth-hole hitter Joe Vetrano and seventh-hole hitter Logan Wagner each hit a long ball.

While De Paula made the most out of his sole hit, the other top prospect in the Drillers outfield, Mike Sirota, had a disappointing performance, hitless in five at-bats with three punchouts. On the pitching side, Aidan Foeller walked a batter per inning, but still kept the zeroes on the board through four frames.

High-A Great Lakes

As both teams seemed to score at will in Class A, the story was the opposite down in the home of the Loons. The Great Lakes required just a pair of runs to shut out Lansing on the back of outstanding pitching from Will Gagnon and the bullpen.

One out short of completing five full innings, Gagnon left the win to reliever Seamus Barrett, who overcame his awful 2026 campaign in which he has allowed more runs (47) than innings pitched (44), recording a scoreless frame.

Leadoff hitter Eduardo Quintero scored both runs for the Loons, one on a fielder’s choice and the other on a wild pitch. Quintero also stole his 43rd bag of the year, joined by Emil Morales, who also stole a base and was the only Loons player with multiple hits.

Class-A Ontario

With three separate players recording multiple stolen bases—Javier Herrera, Abel Lorenzo, Kellon Lindsey, each of them without getting caught once—the Tower Buzzers put forth a dominant offensive effort to beat the Ports in a game with 22 runs.

Third baseman Caleb Johnson got the party started early with a three-run shot, and by the end of the third, the Tower Buzzers already led 8-0 on their way to scoring 13 runs. In deflating news, shortstop Jonedry Vargas left this game early after getting hit in the wrist. While sometimes you see a player try to carry on for an inning or two before getting replaced in situations such as this one, Vargas was immediately replaced by a pinch runner.

Starter Jack O’Connor and none of the relievers who followed him delivered what one might call an efficient performance, but Ontario had such a cushion, it still held on to the W with relative ease.

Transactions

The Comets activated right-handed pitcher Chris Campos off the IL.

Wednesday’s scores

• Oklahoma City 4, El Paso 5
• Oklahoma City 6, El Paso 0
• Midland 4, Tulsa 8
• Great Lakes 2, Lansing 0
• Stockton 9, Ontario 13

Thursday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Brooks Auger) vs. Lansing (Samuel Dutton)
• 4:35 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Cole Irvin) vs. El Paso (JP Sears)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (TBD) at Midland (TBD)
• 7:05 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) at Stockton (Colin Fitzgerald)