DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 6: Relief pitcher Cooper Hjerpe #56 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers a pitch in the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 6, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. Hjerpe is making his Major League debut. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A very merry “Mariners won yesterday” to all, and to all a “they can’t lose today” this night. Oh, and happy Labor Day!
In Mariners news:
The Mariners have called up IF Michael Arroyo, only the 35th Colombian-born player in the MLB. He started second in his debut yesterday for Seattle against the Athletics, and had an 0-for-3 day with a strikeout.
MILWAUKEE — Yes, I made the drive up, but just for Monday’s game.
Since these two teams split a four-game series at Wrigley Field last week, the Cubs won two of three in Miami and the Brewers lost two of three in Cincinnati, and the Cubs trail the Brewers in the NL Central by seven games. Both teams have 18 games remaining.
The Cubs trail the season series against Milwaukee six games to four, so they’d have to sweep this one to take that season series. That’s unlikely, though the Cubs did win the previous series held here this year back in June.
The Cubs won two of three games in their first visit to Milwaukee on June 26-28, losing the first, 6-2, then winning, 8-2 and 4-3. That made the Cubs’ record on the road in their 30-year rivalry 109-121.
They trail, 234-228, in all games, during which they have been outscored by a grand total of three runs, 2,110-2,107.
The Cubs have not swept a series in Wisconsin since Oct. 2-4, 2015. This will be their 28th subsequent series.
They won the first two games only once, May 2-4 of last year. They avoided being swept with third-game wins in five series, including their first a year ago. They last were swept in 2021, 13 series ago.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Monday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (8-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 4.57 FIP) vs. Robert Gasser, LHP (4-5, 4.57 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 4.37 FIP)
Tuesday: David Peterson, LHP (4-2, 4.58 ERA, 1.458 WHIP, 4.54 FIP in 12 games with Cubs; 7-8, 5.39 ERA, 1.559 WHIP, 4.17 FIP in 28 games overall) vs. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP (14-5, 1.97 ERA, 0.794 WHIP, 2.27 FIP)
Wednesday: Kevin Gausman, RHP (4-1, 4.37 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 3.84 FIP in six starts with Cubs; 9-11, 4.38 ERA, 1.257 WHIP, 3.58 FIP in 29 starts overall) vs. Logan Henderson, RHP (9-3, 2.48 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 3.28 FIP)
NOTE: All three of these pitching matchups are rematches from last week’s Tuesday through Thursday games between these teams at Wrigley Field. The Cubs lost two of those three, but did well against both Gasser and Misiorowski, and defeated Henderson thanks to Gausman’s great outing and Pete Crow-Armstrong’s two-run homer.
Times & TV channels
Monday: 1:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Tuesday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Wednesday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Prediction
Going to go out on the proverbial limb and say the Cubs can take two of these. As noted above, if somehow they can pull off a sweep, that would give them the season series against the Brewers.
Up next
The Cubs have Thursday off, then return to Wrigley Field for a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates that begins Friday afternoon.
A NASA picture taken on April 17, 1970 shows Apollo 13 damaged Service Module Odyssey, as photographed from the Command Module after being jettisoned. The third Apollo manned mission to the Moon launched on April 11, 1970 was cancelled due to onboard explosion. Astronauts James A. Lovell, Jr., John L. Swigert and Fred W. Haise, Jr. were rescued in good condition after command module Odyssey splashed down safely in the Pacific. AFP PHOTO NASA (Photo by NASA / AFP) (Photo by -/NASA/AFP via Getty Images) | NASA/AFP via Getty Images
Recaps
[AZ Central] Diamondbacks find a way, tip Astros as E. Rodriguez, Arenado shine – The Diamondbacks took the lead in an unconventional fashion in the third. Shortstop Geraldo Perdomo led off with a single but was struck down by a Ketel Marte line drive, which connected with Perdomo’s helmet. Perdomo stayed down for a couple of minutes before walking off under his own power. With Marte at first, third baseman Nolan Arenado crashed a two-run homer to left-center off Astros starter Peter Lambert.The Astros threatened in the seventh inning, putting two runners on and chasing Juan Morillo with two outs. Brandyn Garcia came on to retire Alvarez on a popup to end the inning. Houston scraped a run off reliever Jonathan Loaisiga in the eighth, but Kevin Ginkel struck out the side — getting Alvarez for the last out — to earn his third save.
[Dbacks.com] Rodriguez’s ‘fierceness’ emerges for D-backs’ Wild Card campaign – “It’s a lot of fun,” D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said about watching Rodriguez this season. “I’ve had a long-term relationship with him. The best part about him is he has not changed. His personality has been the same. He’s very engaged; he’s very caring. And when he takes the mound, there’s a fierceness to him. And that’s what I get to see every fifth day.” Rodriguez has had a winning decision in seven of his last nine starts for the D-backs dating back to late July. He is also 6-0 in his last eight road starts with a 1.90 ERA and 36 strikeouts. “Just executing,” Rodriguez said about his run of success. “Executing the pitches, follow the catcher and follow the plan that we have before the game. Never go away from the plan, and that’s what’s been working.”
[SI] Where Diamondbacks Stand in Playoff Race After Massive Win vs Astros – “Driving towards a playoff spot only intensifies it and it’s what the game’s all about,” manager Torey Lovullo said, speaking to D-backs.TV’s Todd Walsh postgame.”You got to love it. I think these guys are embracing what’s happening. They’re fighting every single inning.”Third baseman Nolan Arenado echoed that sentiment. “These games have been pretty intense,” he said. “We know how meaningful they are, and it’s meaningful for [the Astros] too. They’re playing for a spot also, so these are tough games. We haven’t collectively been great on the offensive side, but it was great to slug, get a couple wins, and get out of here.”
[Arizona Sports] Geraldo Perdomo leaves game after being hit in head by line drive from Ketel Marte – Perdomo reached base in the third inning with a leadoff single before getting nailed by Marte’s 93 mph line drive and going down. Luckily, the ball hit Perdomo’s helmet. The D-backs shortstop remained down for a few minutes as the team trainer came to check on him, as well as Marte and manager Torey Lovullo, before he was able to walk off on his own power.The D-backs later announced that Perdomo exited the game with a head contusion and would be monitored Sunday and into Monday. Lovullo said postgame that Perdomo did not enter the concussion protocol and he plans to have him in the starting lineup on Monday against the Kansas City Royals.
[MLB Trade Rumors] Diamondbacks Designate Max Kepler For Assignment – Although he began the season serving an 80-game PED suspension, Arizona gave him a major league deal worth a prorated $780K. The Diamondbacks activated Kepler on June 25, but he slumped to a .205/.262/.303 line with just two HRs, a career-worst .098 ISO and a 53 wRC+ over a 41-game, 145-plate appearance span. The 33-year-old has typically offered decent numbers against righties, though they held him to a brutal .192/.256/.283 line (47 wRC+) during his short run with the Snakes. The D-backs shielded the lefty-swinging Kepler from same-handed pitchers, whom he faced just 12 times before his designation.
[USA Today] Corbin Burnes returns and more MLB news – Corbin Burnes, who signed a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks after the 2024 season only to undergo Tommy John surgery one month into his deal, will return to the mound Tuesday against the Kansas City Royals. It will be his first appearance in 15 months. The D-backs will be cautious with him, knowing he still has four years, $140 million remaining on his contract, but his return could be a boost for their playoff hopes the final three weeks.Burnes’ return also gives teams a free look at him if Burnes really wanted to take the massive gamble and exercise his opt-out, but teams are fully expecting him to stay in Arizona.
And, elsewhere…
The USA Today piece linked above also goes on a blast against position players pitching. “Major League Baseball, proposing that teams be permitted to have 14 pitchers on their 26-man rosters instead of 13 in the next collective bargaining agreement, will also discuss modifying the rule on when position players can be used as pitchers in the game.Several club executives and managers agree that games are turning into a farce in blowouts with the proliferation of position players taking the mound.It has become totally absurd, ruining the integrity of the game, and destroying the sanctity of records.In what once was a bit of comic relief in blowouts has become a disgusting display that’s more suited for the Savannah Bananas than actual major league games.”
[Today] After ‘Ted Lasso’ Feature, Negro Leagues Baseball Museum ‘Can Hardly Handle’ Surge In Visitors – The historical institution, which preserves the long history of African American baseball in the U.S., was featured in the premiere of the new season of “Ted Lasso” in August. And since, the museum’s president Bob Kendrick tells TODAY.com, the establishment has been flooded with visitors. Sales, Kendrick says, are up around 50% to 60% compared to where they were last year at this time. “I’ll tell you — it has superseded anything that I could have ever even remotely imagined,” Kendrick says of the outpouring of interest in the museum from the show. “I honestly did not know that it would have this kind of interest and immediate impact on the museum.”
The Runner
Rating: C
Dir: Kevin Macdonald
Star: Gal Gadot, Damian Lewis, Alfred Enoch, Rory Wilmot
The fact that I was more interested in tourist landmarks, than the plot or the characters, is significant. You may even spend more of the film thinking of easier, less complex ways, for the voice on the phone to achieve the same end goal. For this is very much an example of an Amazon Prime streaming movie. You don’t need to think about the plot, or even pay attention to it. Everything is clear inside ten minutes, and the last five tidies everything up nicely, with a twist you will likely see coming – at least, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. In the middle? Running, taunting of Maia by the voice on the phone, and problem-solution on repeat. As Saturday night entertainment, it was… okay, I guess? Never going to watch it again though.
It's not every day the San Francisco Giants (55%) are favored, but that's the case in tonight's series opener vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at Oracle Park. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET on NBC.
My Cardinals vs. Giants predictions have more faith in Logan Webb delivering a quality start than Michael McGreevy, especially with San Francisco's recent form against righties.
That's reflected in my MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 7.
Who will win Cardinals vs Giants today: Giants (55%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
McGreevy hasn’t performed well in night games (4.86 ERA, 5.47 xERA) and enters play in poor form, conceding three or more runs in six of his last eight.
Logan Webb has pitched much cleaner at home (3.39 ERA, 3.59 xERA) this season. He has a good chance of holding up against a St. Louis Cardinals team that ranks 23rd in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitchers the last 30 days.
Cardinals vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (49%)
Webb has allowed a hard-hit rate of just 29% on home soil. He has also done a fantastic job of keeping the ball down, inducing grounders at better than a 49% clip.
That profile will make it tough for the Cardinals to generate power in a park that makes it difficult on its own.
McGreevy is excellent at limiting walks and has only allowed 0.88 HR/9 in pitcher-friendly conditions, which he’ll certainly get in San Francisco tonight.
This has the makings of a low-scoring affair. Play to 52%.
Cardinals vs Giants home run prediction: Rafael Devers (17%)
There’s hot, and then there’s Rafael Devers. The Giants’ top slugger has homered six times over his past seven games, and now has an enticing matchup against McGreevy.
Devers has five career at-bats vs. McGreevy. He hit the ball hard in four of them, and left the park twice.
As you’d expect given that history, Devers profiles well against McGreevy’s mix. Fastballs and cutters make up two of his three most-used pitches, and Devers has posted ISOs of .370 and .475 against those two.
Don’t be surprised if the heater lasts another day.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 103-91, -9.0 units
Over/Under bets: 99-89-6, -2.32 units
Cardinals vs Giants market trends
Here's how the trading volume is coming in on tonight's Cardinals vs. Giants matchup at Polymarket, with sharp traders leaning rather heavily to the visitors.
Cardinals vs Giants weather
Temperatures are expected to stay in the mid-60s. Even with the wind blowing out, it should play in favor of the pitchers.
Cardinals vs Giants odds
Moneyline: Cardinals 46% | Giants 55%
Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (64%) | Giants -1.5 (37%)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (52%) | Under 7.5 (49%)
Cardinals vs Giants trend
San Francisco has hit the Over in only 19 of its last 45 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Giants.
How to watch Cardinals vs Giants and game info
Location
Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Date
Monday, Sept. 7, 2026
First pitch
8:10 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Cardinals starting pitcher
Michael McGreevy (6-9, 3.97 ERA)
Giants starting pitcher
Logan Webb (8-8, 4.21 ERA)
Cardinals vs Giants latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
CHICAGO - MAY 13: Gerrit Cole #45 of the the New York Yankees looks on after being removed from the game against the Chicago White Sox on May 13, 2022 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning! Gerrit Cole allowed three consecutive home runs to start yesterday’s game against the Padres. Thankfully for Cole, he’s actually used to this — he had already done it once before and is now the only pitcher in baseball history to have done it twice. Historic lolz, Gerrit!
Kermit’s faceplant and the fact that the Sox are now only 2.5 games behind the Yankees has a lot of Sox fans wondering if they can still catch the Yankees for the first Wild Card, even after the disappointing recent series in the Bronx. That seems highly unlikely to me. While 2.5 games doesn’t look like a lot, the Sox are 3 games behind the Yankees in the loss column — and you can effectively call that 4 games, since the Yankees hold the tie-breaker. Moreover, the Yankees have a pretty soft schedule to close out the season, starting this week with the Rockies and the Mets.
But you know who doesn’t have a soft schedule to end the season? The first place Rays, who play the Braves, Astros, A’s, Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies to close out 2026. Yikes!
The Rays have a four-game lead over the Yankees, and, ultimately, I think it’s highly unlikely we see any movement between these three teams over the last month. But the Rays’ schedule combined with the fact that they will play a series directly against the Yankees has me at least wondering: could they slip into the Wild Card and would the Sox be better off playing the Rays in the first round?
If such a series did come to pass, it would mean that the Rays would be seriously spiraling heading into the postseason. And let’s face it, despite the better record, they don’t look as strong as the Yankees anyway. But it would also mean that the Yankees would be seriously surging into October, and I don’t love that, either.
Talk about postseason permutations and whatever else you want in this space and, as always, be good to one another.
The New York Mets (65-78) head back to Florida to face the Miami Marlins (72-72) in an attempt to hurt their division rival’s postseason dreams. The Mets have dropped six out of ten games to the Marlins this year, including all three games at loanDepot Park back in May. The Mets returned the favor by sweeping the Marlins at Citi Field in May before dropping three of four at Citi Field in the summer.
The Mets flexed their muscle in a series win against the Giants, socking eight home runs across the three games. They slugged five homers in the first game, a 10-6 victory on Friday night, which included two dingers from Francisco Alvarez. The Giants turned the tables on Saturday, handing New York a 9-5 loss by hitting five home runs of their own. The Mets did manage a homer from AJ Ewing, which represented the first runs he’s driven in since July 31, ending a lengthy stretch of futility. Sunday’s game was a much more modest affair, with the Mets trailing 2-0 heading into the eighth. That’s when they mounted a rally, with a solo home run from Brett Baty getting them on the board and a three-run homer from Bo Bichette putting them ahead for good and resulting in the team securing a 4-2 victory.
It was New York’s second consecutive series win after dropping three in a row. With that, they secured 65 wins, putting them within one of the 66 wins that the 2003 Mets had. That remains the record for futility for the franchise since the turn of the millennium, and given how poorly the year began, it was not a guarantee that the Mets would eclipse that mark.
The Marlins, despite their refusal to add at the deadline (in fact, they even traded Liam Hicks to the Rays), remain in the Wild Card race with a .500 record. They sit four games of the final playoff spot in the National League. The trouble for them is that they have to leap a handful of teams to reach the postseason, including the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Cardinals, with the Pirates right on their tail as well, Their offense erupted for 10 runs in yesterday’s victory over the Cubs, which helped them avoid a sweep at the hands of the Wild Card-leading Cubbies.
The Marlins have a long history of derailing the Mets’ postseason dreams. Last season, the Mets traveled to loanDepot Park needing a series win to enter the playoffs as the third Wild Card team, and instead Miami took two of three to dash their hopes on the final game of the regular season. This is a familiar scente for Mets fans, who remember the 2007 and 2008 collapses all too well. In both instances, the Marlins came to Shea Stadium and dropped the Mets on the final game of the regular season to eliminate New York for playoff contention. With the Mets having nothing to play for this September, they can enact a small measure of revenge by taking a late-season series to hurt the Marlins, who are vying for their first playoff berth since 2023.
Monday, September 7: Jonah Tong vs. Eury Pérez, 1:10 PM EDT on SNY
Tong will return to the team’s rotation for the first time in 2026. He made three relief appearances for New York in May and early June, allowing six runs (four earned) on eight hits over ten innings, with seven strikeouts and seven walks. He’s struggled for the most part in Triple-A this year, posting a 4.54 ERA over 23 starts in Syracuse, but the right-hander has been better as of late, posting a 0.84 ERA over his past four starts. That stretch included a start on August 29 in which he came within one out of a seven-inning no-hitter. Tong made his major league debut and picked up his first win against the Marlins, allowing four runs (one earned) over five innings.
Pérez has seen his ERA jump by a half-run over his last two starts as he endures one of his tougher stretches of the season. In his last two outings, he’s pitched 7 2/3 innings and allowing 11 earned runs on 11 hits, picking up one loss and settling for a no decision in the other outing. It’s been a solid year for the right-hander otherwise, who missed all of 2024 with Tommy John Surgery and struggled in his return season in 2025, posting a 4.25 ERA and striking out 105 batters in 95 1/3 innings.
Tuesday, September 8: Sean Manaea vs. Sandy Alcantara, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY
Manaea had another rough outing, allowing five earned runs on a season-high 11 hits over 5 2/3 innings. He struck out two, walked one, and allowed one home run. It is the fourth consecutive start in which he’s allowed at least four earned runs, and the second consecutive start allowing at least five earned runs. During this stretch, his ERA has jumped from 4.13 to 4.70. On a positive note, Manaea continues to eat innings for New York, pitching into the sixth inning for the eighth straight outing.
Alcantara could very well be approaching the end of his tenure with Miami, as the former Cy Young winner has a club option for the 2027 campaign. The right-hander is having his best season since his 2022 All-Star campaign, when he led all NL pitchers in WAR, complete games, and innings pitched. Heading into this start, he leads NL starters with 30 starts and 195 2/3 innings, but he has also allowed the most hits (181). In each of his last two starts, he allowed four earned runs over six innings, with Miami losing each of those games. He’s only struck out five across those two starts. The Marlins have lost each of Alcantara’s last five starts.
Wednesday, September 9: Robert Stock vs. Janson Junk, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY
While not confirmed, Stock seems in line to pitch on Wednesday, with the team lining Nolan McLean up for Friday’s start at Yankee Stadium. He pitched 1/3 of an inning in relief in Friday’s win against the Giants. Prior to that, he picked up his first career victory since 2019, pitching 5 1/3 shutout innings against the Rays. In that victory, he allowed five hits, struck out four, and did not walk a batter in the win.
Junk is coming off a solid start, although one that resulted in a loss. In five innings against the Cubs, he allowed one earned run on three hits, with one walk and four strikeouts. Prior to that, he pitched 4 2/3 innings and allowed one earned run on four hits, with two walks and two strikeouts. Junk picked up a win against the Mets back on July 31, as he pitched 5 innings and allowed one unearned run on three hits.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 06: Mason Miller #22 of the San Diego Padres celebrates on the field after defeating the New York Yankees at Petco Park on September 06, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Diego Padres started the series finale against Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees with a bang. Three of them to be exact. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado went back-to-back-to-back to give the Padres a 3-0 lead in the first inning, which resulted in a 4-3 win at Petco Park on Sunday.
San Diego starter Michael King pitched a 1-2-3 top of the first inning and his team responded with run support in the bottom half of the inning. Tatis connected on a 2-2 pitch, which was on the outer third of the plate and drove it over the wall in right field to give the Padres a 1-0 lead. Cronenworth had a similar at-bat from the opposite side of the plate, connecting on a 2-1 pitch on the outer third of the plate and driving it over the wall in left field.
After two opposite field solo home runs, San Diego had a 2-0 lead and Machado stepped into the batter’s box. The third baseman followed the blueprints of Tatis and Cronenworth and hit a 2-2 pitch deep over the center field wall to give the Padres a 3-0 lead on back-to-back-to-back home runs off the Yankees ace.
King had all the run support he needed after the first inning and kept the New York hitter flummoxed throughout his appearance. The right-hander tossed six shutout innings and allowed just four hits with three walks and three strikeouts. It should be noted that none of the four hits allowed by King were recorded by the Yankees’ hottest hitter Ben Rice. He was actually held hitless, finishing 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts in the final game of the series.
The Padres did add on a run in the bottom of the seventh inning with Cole still on the mound. Luis Campusano, who hit the walk-off home run in the series opener on Friday night, connected for his second home run of the series with a fly ball to left field that landed in the second deck. The blast gave San Diego a 4-0 lead and proved to be the winning home run. Campusano also made an impact on defense when he threw out a would-be base stealer at second base in the top of the eighth inning. It was the fourth runner thrown out by Campusano in the series.
King gave way to the bullpen in the seventh inning. Bradgley Rodriguez pitched a scoreless seventh with two strikeouts and was followed by Adrian Morejon in the eighth inning. The San Diego setup man had another rough outing which included a throwing error that allowed a run to score. The Yankees score three runs on Morejon, but only two of them were earned as a result of his error. Mason Miller came on for the ninth inning and allowed a two-out walk, but locked down the win and the save with three strikeouts.
The Padres will be back in action today when they welcome the Washington Nationals to Petco Park to open a three-game series at 2:10 p.m.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - AUGUST 09: General Manager Mike Elias of the Baltimore Orioles watches the Orioles Hall of Fame ceremony before the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Athletics at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 09, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Anyone can really be forgiven for thinking, after the Orioles dramatically got back up to .500 after months of wallowing below it, that this would mark the start of a September ascent. The opportunity was right there in front of them. What we have gotten instead is the ultimate case of the 2026 Orioles pulling the rug out from under anyone foolish enough to believe in them, with the team going on to lose its first six September games, in some ways each more pathetic of a loss than the one before it.
With this year’s team having buried itself, focus must turn to how to make things better for next year. In this episode, that’s what I’m trying to do. I think that has to start with change at the top of baseball operations. For months, I have felt that if they don’t make the playoffs, Mike Elias needs to be out of here. It is clear that he cannot fix the problems that have afflicted the roster going back to right around the All-Star break two seasons ago. It’s going to take someone new to make sense of this.
I also think that change at the top is going to need to mean change in the dugout leadership as well. I don’t blame Elias for choosing Craig Albernaz as the manager. Every indication was he was the #1 manager-in-waiting in baseball for multiple offseasons, and he could have chosen any job he wanted since around the end of the 2024 season. It’s not that very many of the Orioles problems are his fault, but making them better is his responsibility and it’s clear he can’t do that.
I’m not optimistic about David Rubenstein sharing either of these ideas. So, all that’s left is to guess at who Elias will think are the keepers on this roster and what he might even be able to try to do in this coming offseason, when it’s looking like the lack of a new labor agreement will probably cut away months of time where free agents could sign and trades could be made.
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This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.
How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of a future episode of the podcast.
The Baltimore Orioles are 55% favorites to put an end to their six-game losing streak this afternoon at Camden Yards, with first pitch coming at 1:35 p.m. ET.
Given the strong signs they've shown at the plate against left-handed pitchers, I'm buying the dip and backing Baltimore with my Guardians vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks.
Who will win Guardians vs Orioles today: Orioles moneyline (55%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Baltimore Orioles’ hitting profile against lefties is littered with green flags.
They rank second in barrel rate, second in hard-hit rate, and fifth in xwOBA vs. southpaws over the past month. Joey Cantillo has posted a 1.52 WHIP and 5.09 SIERA during that span, making him a vulnerable target the Orioles should get to.
Trevor Rogers managed a 1.22 WHIP and 3.04 SIERA over the same period. He looks more likely to give his team a quality start, and the Orioles have the better offense to boot.
Back Baltimore to 57%.
COVERS INTEL: Joey Cantillo's 1.52 WHIP over the past 30 days is the fourth-highest mark among today's projected starters.
Guardians vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55%)
Cantillo has not fared well against teams that hit lefties for power. He's sporting a 6.75 ERA through 10 starts vs. opponents who rank inside the Top 10 in ISO against southpaws, and the Orioles come in at No. 9.
All of Baltimore’s underlying numbers are pointing upwards against lefties, so this is a spot I want to back them to score.
The Cleveland Guardians are not the most powerful offense around, but they quietly sit 11th in xwOBA against lefties the past month.
I’d play the Over to 57%.
Guardians vs Orioles home run prediction: Coby Mayo (16%)
Coby Mayo destroys left-handed pitching. He's sporting a .412 ISO and 22.6% barrel rate on the season, which is almost unfathomable.
He isn’t a one-trick pony, either. He hits almost everything well from lefties, and there’s nothing Cantillo has in his bag that should cause Mayo problems.
Fastballs, curveballs, and changeups account for well over 90% of Cantillo’s pitches against righties. Mayo hits them all for power, posting ISOs of .429, .727, and .367, respectively.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 103-91, -9.0 units
Over/Under bets: 99-89-6, -2.32 units
Guardians vs Orioles weather
The forecast calls for temperatures hovering around 80, although winds are blowing in. That'll zap some of the power.
Guardians vs Orioles odds
Moneyline: Guardians 46% | Orioles 55%
Run line: Guardians +1.5 (65%) | Orioles -1.5 (36%)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (55%) | Under 7.5 (46%)
Guardians vs Orioles trend
The Orioles own a 71-69 O/U record this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Orioles.
How to watch Guardians vs Orioles and game info
Location
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Date
Monday, September 7, 2026
First pitch
1:35 p.m. ET
TV
CleGuardians.TV, MASN
Guardians starting pitcher
Joey Cantillo (9-8, 3.81 ERA)
Orioles starting pitcher
Trevor Rogers (9-9, 4.30 ERA)
Guardians vs Orioles latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
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Sep 6, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; The Texas Rangers fans celebrate after shortstop Corey Seager (not pictured) hits a home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the eighth inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Good morning.
Shawn McFarland writes that the Texas Rangers displayed their ability to rebound with a series finale win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday.
Kennedi Landry writes about Jake Burger’s two home run day in Sunday’s victory being fueled by a change in facial hair.
McFarland notes that with Nathan Eovaldi nearing a return, the Rangers are figuring out what role he might have down the stretch.
Kevin Sherrington writes that the Rangers only have a few weeks left to decide if they’re going to be playing next month.
And, the baseball folks at ESPN make some stretch run predictions for how things might go in the final month of the season.
The Atlanta Braves had one of their most dramatic wins all season yesterday to secure a season tiebreaker against the Philadelphia Phillies. If they win today, it will give them a six game lead. With only three games left against each other before the season ends, a win today could be huge.
Grant Holmes will be taking the mound for the Braves. As we all know by now, he does not go deep into games so the bullpen needs to be ready. Holmes has been up and down as of late. In his last five starts he has given up zero earned runs in has last start and in order from there he has given up six, zero, three, and zero runs respectively. He seems to be dominate when he is on, but terrible when he is not. Hopefully the trend will not continue because base on his last five games he is due to give up at least three earned runs.
Holmes has not faced the Phillies since April, but faced them twice in a five day span. In his first start he went 4.2 innings and held them to two runs on four hits to include a HR. In his second start he tied his second longest start with 6.0 innings pitched. He gave up three earned runs on seven hits while walking three and striking out four. The Braves won both games.
No player on the Phillies has more than nine at-bats against Holmes. Kyle Schwarber has an OPS of .904 and two HRs against Holmes, but only a .143 average. Bryce Harper only has four at-bats against him, but has done massive damage with a HR, .500 average, and 1.964 OPS. Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs has been successful with a 1.334 OPS and Trea Turner has a 1.158. The rest of the roster has struggled. No other player has an OPS north of .625.
Jesús Luzardo is coming to the mound and is having arguably the best season of his career. He has pitched 169.2 innings thus far and has a 3.02 ERA, 2.86 FIP, and a SO/BB ratio of 4.10. Although the Braves have already played the Phillies six times, but Luzardo has not faced them yet this season. There are four different players on the Braves that have at least twenty-two at-bats. Of these four Ozzie Albies has a .625 OPS, Matt Olson has a .518, Austin Riley has a .694, and Lane Thomas has a 1.503 OpS with four HRs.
I think it is fair to say that Thomas needs to be in the linuep this afternoon.
The Braves have proven this series that their path to victory is to get to the bullpen, so the goal today should be to tire out Luzardo to get to the bullpen as soon as possible. On paper, the Braves have a hill to climb, but it can be done, especially if Lane Thomas is in the lineup and continues to rake against today’s All-Star SP.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 6: Luis Arraez #4 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park on September 6, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Braves defeated the Phillies 5-4. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Braves have already taken two games in Philadelphia and currently hold a five game lead with 19 games left to play. They have the season tiebreaker over the Phillies now, always important in this age of no more tiebreaker games to determine winners of something. Even with one more game here in Philadelphia between the two and more games this coming weekend in Atlanta, it’s fair to ask the question:
Is the race for the National League East over?
Things can happen, of course, so maybe we should wait until next weekend happens to fully figure it out, but after that deflating loss yesterday, now is the time around these parts.
Detroit Tigers shortstop Bryce Rainer talks to reporters March 20, 2026, before the Spring Breakout game at LECOM Park in Bradenton, Florida. | Evan Petzold / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Detroit Tigers’ Double-A affiliate, the Erie SeaWolves, is the only one of the Tigers full season minor league teams to reach the postseason this year. That’s a credit to manager Tony Cappuccilli, who survived a lack of pitching prospects to get the SeaWolves to the postseason for the fifth straight season. With the A-ball season now done, the question is whether the Tigers might prioritize getting some of their top prospects at the High-A level a little more work and some postseason experience by promoting them to Erie.
Cappuccilli really had little to work with on the pitching side in the first half of the season. Lefty Joe Miller, a 26-year-old not ranked anywhere, was his top starting pitcher. Knuckleballing veteran Kenny Serwa struggled, as did options like RHP Max Alba, and crafty, soft-tossing lefty Carlos Peña. There really weren’t any legit relief prospects available to him either. Triple digit sinkerballer Moises Rodriguez was at least effective despite pretty weak peripheral numbers, but then he missed all of July with an injury. For the most part, Cappuccilli and his staff had to make due with a lot of older org pitchers in both the rotation and the bullpen. So it’s pretty impressive that they managed to turn things around in the second half, despite not really getting a ton of reinforcements on the pitching side. So perhaps some reinforcements are in order now.
Left-hander Ben Jacobs, the Tigers third round pick in the 2025 draft, is currently in peak form and challenging 2026 first rounder Cameron Flukey for top pitching prospect in the Tigers farm system. With improved mechanics and extension this year, Jacobs is getting down the mound better, throwing harder, and regularly getting 18-19 inches of ride (induced vertical break) on his fourseamer. His slider has really gotten more consistently sharp in recent weeks, and he packs a good changeup and a solid curveball as well. He holds a 34.5 percent strike out rate, which is outstanding, though his walk rate is somewhat too high at 11.2 percent.
Jacobs quickly breezed through Single-A Lakeland in just a few outings back in the spring. He had some trouble with walks and home runs after the jump to High-A West Michigan in May, but over his last six starts has really hit a new level. He’s allowed just four runs in his last six starts, collecting 43 strikeouts, and allowing 10 walks and 15 hits across 31 innings of work. He’s thrown 92.1 innings this year, but he threw 83.2 innings in his junior year at Arizona State, so he really hasn’t been pushed much beyond his college workload yet.
The SeaWolves could definitely use a pair of good starts from Jacobs to close out their regular season this week, and then in the postseason. RHP Lucas Elissalt is another nice breakout pitching prospect, who jumped from High-A to Double-A in early August, and has given the SeaWolves a nice boost in the second half. Beyond that they’re still working with a lot of veteran minor league starters without major league time in their futures. Giving Jacobs a look at a better class of hitters, and giving him experience preparing for a high pressure postseason start seems like a great way to close out his 2026 season. He still has work to do on his command, and we’d like another bump on his velo next season, but he’s not too far from 50 future value (FV) status, and he’s pitching his best ball right now. I love the idea of challenging players when they’re in really good form, and I like the idea of giving players a look at the level they’ll tackle fully next year before the end of a season. It would be good for both Jacobs and the SeaWolves if the Tigers would send him to Cappuccilli to finish the season.
The other interesting option is to promote top prospect SS Bryce Rainer. It’s been a wild season for the recently turned 21-year-old who missed most of his pro debut in 2025 after an injury required shoulder surgery. A good defender with speed, a huge arm, a patient, possibly too patient, approach at the plate, and 70 grade raw power, Rainer has struck out a ton, walked a ton, and done a whole lot of damage since moving up aggressively to High-A in mid-April.
Because of the injury, Rainer had less than 50 games out of high school ball when he reached High-A West Michigan. That was a highly aggressive promotion, probably sparked as much by the need to play Jordan Yost at shortstop full-time in Lakeland as because Rainer was really ready to handle it. He struggled mightily in May, striking out a ton, and then in June went nuts, hitting six homers and posting a 1.140 OPS. Another slump followed in July, but in August and September the damage has been prodigious yet again, while at the same time, Rainer has struck out in just over 40 percent of his at-bats since August 1.
In contrast to Jacobs, this isn’t really a case of a guy in the midst of a breakout. Rainer is still hammering fastballs and the occasional breaking ball or offspeed mistake, and doing a lot of damage. However, he’s also swinging and missing a fair amount, and taking an incredible amount of called third strikes. It’s a really strange combination. His 14.2 percent whiff rate isn’t good, but it’s not egregious for a power hitter at that level. Particularly one this young and inexperienced. However, his 19.8 percent called strike rate says he’s still taking a whole lot of pitches for strikes. Even accounting for a lesser caliber of umpiring, that’s a lot of called strikes.
It’s hard to call his approach passive considering the violent fury and all fields power in his left-handed swing, but it’s actually true. Unless he sees something up in the zone that he likes, he often doesn’t swing even with two strikes. Rainer does not chase out of the zone much at all, just 20.9 percent of the time, which is outstanding. He’s gone through a litany of adjustments to his batting stance and overall hitting mechanics, which have gotten him back to making a lot of extremely hard contact up to 115 mph off the bat, but he doesn’t really defend the zone or alter his approach appreciably with two strikes. He just continues to wait for a fastball he can crush, and if a pitcher drops in a good breaking ball, changeup or splitter on him, good on them.
If Rainer is promoted, he’ll get to join his new teammates on a road trip to Reading, PA to play the Fightin Phils for six games to close out the regular season. You’re not promoting him straight into the postseason. He’ll have a week to get to know everyone before they tackle the Richmond Flying Squirrels at home on September 15 to start the postseason. And he wouldn’t necessarily take plate appearances away from Erie’s better hitters either. Peyton Graham is having a nice year, but he’ll be 26 in January and is hanging on as a possible utilityman prospect. He can play second base and he’s played some outfield, including center field as well. The SeaWolves do need him in the lineup, but Rainer is already a more consistent, solid shortstop anyway.
The Tigers should really move Jacobs up. Lucas Elissalt has been pitching well and I like him quite a bit too, but Jacobs would be the best pitcher on the squad. If he made two more starts he’d probably finish with 101-102 innings pitched on the year. That’s ideal for a college pitcher in his first pro season.
With Rainer it’s a lot less certain that he really helps the cause. There’s certainly a chance that he’d see a lot more pitchers challenge him, and that might go very badly for those pitchers. But he might also be carved up by pitchers that can throw strikes without feeding him many cookies for a while at that level. It just seems like a good experience to take into the offseason for him. He may well struggle with Double-A pitching, but this late in the year, the good Double-A pitchers have already moved up, and Rainer would face a lot of arms that were in High-A part of the year anyway. And he’s going to see them a lot more next year. Might as well get a good look now.
Rainer is a good bet to need a lot of Double-A time before he advances, but even if he doesn’t reach Triple-A until 2028, he’ll still only be 22 years old. That’s a perfectly brisk pace for all but the elite pure hitting prospects in the game. To me, it seems like a good idea to acclimate him a bit right now with a taste of high pressure baseball to take into the offseason. The Tigers have done a bit of this sort of thing before, so I just think there’s a fair chance Rainer gets the call.
The SeaWolves have played really well in the second half, despite only really having Zyhir Hope, Thayron Liranzo, and Elissalt on hand as really notable prospects. It would be good for the team, and probably for Jacobs and Rainer, to reinforce them now for the final push. Still, of the two, Jacobs is by far the more ready and impactful player for the SeaWolves roster right now. They could definitely use help in the rotation, so Jacobs at least seems like a good bet to get the call.
Sunday afternoon saw a terrific catch be Tyrone Taylor in left field, robbing a homer, as well as Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 40th homer. One of those two things has now happened by a left-handed hitter just twice in all of Cubs history. One of the things playing for the Cubs, be it PCA hitting his 40th homer of the season left handed or anyone who contributed to 62 Cub homers in August, is that when you talk about history, you are talking about 150 years. Being the first or even one of the first to do something is incredible. You’re talking about a century and a half of history.
And so it is that Pete Crow-Armstrong slowly drifts where no Cub has ever been. Sammy Sosa once had a season with 66 homers and 18 steals. As near as I can tell, that is the homer plus steals record by a Cub. Pete is now sitting at 73. His 40/30+ season is a Cub first. His 40 homers as a lefty is the second ever. Pete is a couple of months younger than Ernie Banks as the youngest Cub ever with 40 homers. He’s in some pretty rarified territory.
Unfortunately, none of that matter all too much on Sunday. Clay Holmes did not have his best stuff. To my untrained eye, this was a cruel matchup. Marlins starter Tyler Phillips threw several pitches at or below the strike zone. Holmes wasn’t working down near that low part of the strike zone. So the Marlins benefitted from several low strikes and it didn’t seem like the Cubs did much or at all. For what it’s worth, the Cubs broadcast said that home plate umpire Ben May grades out as pitcher friendly. The eye test wouldn’t argue. It was a throwback to ball from the 90’s that I remember watching with a wide strike zone. In this case, it was low. I didn’t wait to see the ump scorecard, but as near as I could tell watching the live broadcast, a few pitches in key spots went the Marlins way. It happens. I’m not trying to make excuses. They played well. The Cubs didn’t execute over and over. The team that played better won.
It’s certainly an unfortunate day. Combined with the historic homer, it’s a really tough day. A day that felt like one to celebrate so quickly turned to a lopsided game in the other direction. For whatever reason, Holmes was off. It looked to me, again, a lay person, that he had a ton of arm side run on his pitches and an awful lot of them were ending up out of the strike zone. Obviously, that’s all very easy for me to say and I’ve no doubt if there was some simple mechanical thing that could be cleaned up, the Cubs would have cleaned it up.
It’s always tough though when a game like this happens. Holmes has felt so invincible. No one is ever fully impervious to an off day. Holmes wasn’t. And this one just got away. You hate to see it, but really it is what it is. Cub pitchers walked six batters, three of those scored. They hit a batter and that one scored. So they really gave away a ton of runs in this one. The entire team is built around not walking hitters and making plays defensively. The team isn’t really strong enough to survive when either of those things go awry.
On to Milwaukee. Hopefully the Cubs can grab a couple of wins there.
Three positives:
Nothing really more positive than Pete Crow-Armstrong with a homer and a sacrifice fly on the day. Another good day in one of the best seasons any of us will ever witness.
Seiya Suzuki had a double and drew a walk in the game.
Daniel Palencia worked the eighth inning and got a strikeout and a double play around a walk. It’s unfortunate to see him working in such a lopsided game, but there isn’t a lot of runway left for him to get right.
A hat tip to Shelby Miller and Justin Steele putting in different kind of work over the weekend as they try to get a look with the big club before playoff rosters are set. Both men have had difficult journeys back to a major league mound and have had to put in a ton of work. Both men appear close to a return.
Game 144, September 6: Marlins 10, Cubs 3 (81-63)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Michael Conforto (.093). 1-3, BB
Hero: Tyrone Taylor (.092). 1-3, 2B
Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.090). 1-3, HR, SF, 2 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Clay Holmes (-.547). 4.1 IP, 23 BF, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 ER, 2 K (L 2-3)
Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.084). 1-3, DP
Kid: Michael Busch (-.077). 0-3
Note: Preliminary indication has Holmes as a bottom 10 WPA score of the year, possibly checking in ninth or tenth.
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s game tying homer with two outs in the fifth. (.142)
Marlins Play of the Game: Heriberto Hernandez’ solo homer in the bottom of the fourth gave the Marlins the lead. (.132)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 143 Winner: Ryan Zeferjahn with 70 of 98 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Pete Crow-Armstrong +26.5
Alex Bregman +26
Michael Conforto +14
Ben Brown +13.5
Javier Assad +12
Jameson Taillon -13
Nico Hoerner -14
Seiya Suzuki -15
Dansby Swanson -17
Caleb Thielbar -17.5
Scoreboard Watching: Brewers won (up 7 on Cubs). Braves won (4.5 up) over the Phillies (0.5 back). Diamondbacks won (5 back). Padres won (5.5 back). Dodgers won (5.5 up). Just under three weeks to go and it’s tight for the No. 1 seed overall in the NL and tight for each of the Wild Card slots. 2.5 games separate those top three teams. 5.5 games separate the next four teams. One team is going to miss landing in a chair when the music stops. If baseball ended today, that would be the Padres.
The Cubs move on to Milwaukee for the final three games of the regular season between the two NL Central rivals. The division is all but wrapped up, but both teams have plenty to play for. Matthew Boyd (8-3, 4.05) starts for the Cubs. Boyd allowed three runs in 5.1 innings against the Brewers last week and will be looking to improve on that.
Robert Gasser (4-5, 4.57) starts for the Brewers. He allowed two earned runs in 4.1 innings before departing a game between these teams last week. He too will be looking to improve. Like so many Brewers, his ERA is almost a full point better at home (4.05 in 8 starts) than on the road (5.01 in 9 games, 8 starts).
This is the best matchup on paper. Let’s go get the first one.
COVERS INTEL:
