BASEBALL IN SUNSHINE: Yesterday’s win evened the Cubs’ record in day games this year at 32-32, including 22-16 at home. They are 13-17 this year in the second of back-to-back day games. They finished last year 24-13. They are 12-10 in the second of back-to-back day games at home. A year ago, they were 22-12. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
SATURDAY IN THE PARK: On Saturdays this season, the Cubs are 13-11 overall and 7-5 at home. They wound up 20-7 and 9-5 a year ago. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
APPROACHING 800: With their 12 runs yesterday, the Cubs’ total for the season stands at 792. They have scored an 800th run in only 12 seasons since 1901, most recently 2023, with 819, their eighth most in a season. This century, they also scored 808 in 2016, 814 in 2019, 822 in 2017 and 855 in 2008. Those 855 are the Cubs’ third most ever, behind 998 in 1930 and 982 in 1929. At their current average of 5.35 per game, the Cubs will finish this season with 867. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: The Cubs trailed the Dodgers 7-0 going to the fifth, then overcame that and led them 8-7 in the ninth before L.A. scored an unearned run in that inning to tie the game. Former Dodger Cesar Izturis singled in the winning run in the 11th and the Cubs won 9-8. It happened 20 years ago today, Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2006.
Clay Holmes was going along great in his first five starts for the Cubs, then had a stinker last Sunday against the Marlins.
So we’re going to try to ignore that one and focus on the rest of his 2026 season, which has been excellent.
Holmes, who began his career with the Pirates, has never faced them as a starting pitcher. The only Pirates player who’s seen him for more than a handful of at-bats is Brandon Lowe (2-for-8).
You have probably read about Paul Skenes’ somewhat down year — his ERA is well over 3, his velocity is down a few ticks, etc. (You can see that in the chart below.)
The last time he faced the Cubs was July 25 at PNC Park, and they hit him pretty well even though he struck out 10 Cubs hitters — six hits and five runs in 5.1 innings.
Since that game, Skenes has a 4.46 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in seven starts covering 34.1 innings. The Cubs have hit him well in the past — he has a 3.45 career ERA in nine starts against the Cubs, which is his highest against any team he’s faced more than four times.
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The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.
You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).
At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.
The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.
You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.
Apr 20, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Maicer Izturis (3) dives back to first base on a pick-off attempt in the tenth inning against the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre. The Yankees beat the Blue Jays, 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Today marks the 44th birthday of former Blue Jays infielder Maicer Izturis.
You might remember that Alex Anthopoulos signed Izturis as a free agent in November 2012. He agreed to a three-year contract (with a team option for a fourth year) worth $3 million annually, making it Alex’s most significant free-agent signing at the time.
Unfortunately, the signing did not go as hoped.
Alex described Izturis as the ‘leading candidate’ to play second base but still sought to upgrade the position. Around the same time, he traded Mike Aviles (and Yan Gomes) to Cleveland for Esmil Rogers—a move that also fell short of expectations. While Aviles might have been a healthier option at second, his offensive numbers were underwhelming. Notably, the Jays had just acquired Aviles from the Red Sox in exchange for John Farrell.
A few days later, Alex pulled off a major trade with the Marlins, which brought Emilio Bonifacio to Toronto. Bonifacio would share second base duties with Izturis during the 2013 season. Over the next few years, the team cycled through several other second basemen, including Munenori Kawasaki and Ryan Goins.
Over three seasons, Izturis appeared in just 118 games, spending more time on the disabled list than on the field. The Jays declined his option ahead of the 2016 season, instead issuing a $1,000,000 buyout.
He finished his Blue Jays tenure with a .240/.291/.310 slash line and 5 home runs.
In January 2016, the Jays signed Izturis to a minor-league contract, but he never played professionally again.
Izturis spent 11 seasons in the majors, compiling a .269/.331/.372 batting line with 39 home runs in 909 games. He played the majority of his career with the Angels, though he began with the Expos.
Happy Birthday, Maicer—I hope it’s a great one.
Today also marks the 43rd birthday of Clayton Richard.
Clayton Richard enjoyed an 11-year MLB career, finishing with the Blue Jays. His stint in Toronto was less memorable—he went 1-5 with a 5.96 ERA over 10 starts in 2019. The Jays acquired him in a trade with the Padres for Connor Panas, who never reached the majors but is currently playing in Mexico.
Standing 6’5” and weighing 240 pounds, Richard was an imposing left-handed pitcher, though not a hard thrower. The polite term: he was a ‘pitch-to-contact’ pitcher, rarely missing bats.
Over his 11-year career, Richard posted a 69-84 record with a 4.51 ERA across 275 games, including 210 starts.
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 6: Starting pitcher Tanner Gordon #29 of the Colorado Rockies delivers a pitch in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Coors Field on September 6, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A stretch of rough streaks continues for the Colorado Rockies (55-92). The team had a tough time at home in August, losing 10 games straight at Coors Field before winning one against the Baltimore Orioles to start the month of September.
The woes are now traveling. After last night’s 6-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers (68-79), the Rockies have amassed an eight-game road losing streak. They’ll try to stop the away skid in game two of a three-game set out in Motor City.
The Rockies will start right-handed pitcher Tanner Gordon (1-4 in nine starts and 21 total games, 5.40 ERA). Gordon has oscillated between starting and relieving throughout the season. He was roughed up in his last start, a 10-8 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in which Gordon gave up five runs on eight hits. Over the course of the year, Gordon has performed better on the road than he as at home. He has an 0-3 record and a 7.47 ERA at Coors Field, compared to a 1-1 record alongside a 2.68 ERA on the road. In fact, the Rockies last road win came on a Gordon start in a 13-1 win over the Washington Nationals. They’ll turn to his mojo away from home to get things back on track.
The Tigers will send out lefty Andrew Sears (0-1 in one start and three total games), who made his MLB debut on August 23rd. He began his big-league career with two appearances out of the bullpen. He got his first start last week, a non-decision as Detroit lost to the Cleveland Guardians 4-3 in extra innings. Sears looked sharp, going 5.2 innings and giving up just one run on four hits with four strikeouts. The Tigers sent Sears back down to Triple-A after his start to clear roster space for Jack Flaherty returning from injury. That decision made a U-turn with starter Keider Montero leaving Detroit to return to Venezuela for the birth of his child, putting Sears’ services back in demand.
With Colorado up against a left-handed starter for the second straight game in the series, the faces in the batting order remain mostly unchanged. TJ Rumfield slots in and Troy Johnston moves out amidst a shuffle in the Designated Hitter and infield positions. The other eight starters from yesterday’s game take the field today. The Rockies will hope to see more power out of their bats and to cash in on their scoring opportunities as they try to even the series.
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 30: Willson Contreras #40 of the Boston Red Sox bats during the game between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Sunday, August 30, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by CJ Lauretani/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The WooSox fell to the IronPigs (Phillies AAA) in more of a game of circumstance than anything. For every good thing that happened, there was a counter. The team only walked once, but they only struck out six times. John Holobetz struck out seven and pitched into the sixth, having only allowed a run via a home run, but Seth Martinez got taken yard three times. Of course, there was also the issue of going 1-2-3 six times in the game including when it mattered most in the ninth. In a winnable game, 5 hits, only one of those being an extra-base hit (by your 8-hole hitter, no less) usually doesn’t cut it.
In a real full-team win, the Sea Dogs had three home runs, all within the first five innings to put them up big, including Brooks Brannon capping a 7-run second. Henry Godbout continues his fantastic late summer at the plate taking Binghamton (Mets AA) for two hits. Despite the DH who you may or may not recognize. Willson Contreras is getting some at-bats in rehab to ensure that nagging hamstring isn’t going to be too much of an issue during the playoff run. It didn’t seem to bother him Friday as he went 2-for-4 with 2 RBIs. Contreras will start at first for the Sea Dogs this afternoon and it’s at least plausible we see him in Boston to end this Royals series Sunday.
Contreras wasn’t the only one rehabbing, though; along with Yordanny Monegro coming back from that lengthy Tommy John back in 2025, Tanner Houck is also searching to maybe get some innings in in 2026 after all (let me be clear… as the end of his rehab would be after the playoffs begin, I’m all for the 2024 All-Star pacing himself as slow as possible and coming back in 2027.) The 30-year-old struck four out allowing just one hit in three innings (though, that hit did score a runner he walked) and getting this game to a place where Max Carlson and Cooper Adams could slam the door. Houck threw 48 pitches in relatively low leverage, which actually may seem like a little bit of a high pitch count in a second appearance after a major surgery, but he dug in deep and got that ninth out. It’s really nice to see Houck on the mound again, and his Friday night certainly went a lot better than his Tuesday night did.
NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 08: Brent Headrick #47 of the New York Yankees pitches during the game against the Colorado Rockies at Yankee Stadium on September 8, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Though the Yankees have endured their fair share of misfortune this year – injuries to several key players come to mind – they’ve also enjoyed some positive surprises. Spencer Jones might be a viable big leaguer! Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t completely toast! Paul Blackburn’s running a sub-2.00 ERA! However, there’s one important development that I feel has flown under the radar at least a little bit, and that is Brent Headrick’s emergence as an elite reliever.
Those of you following this team closely should need no reminder of how good Headrick has been, but his performance to date stands out even when compared to the rest of the league. Here’s how Brent’s key stats rank among all qualified MLB relievers.
No matter how you slice it, Headrick’s 2026 performance to date has been nothing short of elite. However, I want to call attention to one stat in particular: his innings count. With about three weeks still remaining in the season, Headrick has already thrown 73.1 innings, the most he’s ever thrown in the majors by far. In fact, even when accounting for his minor league stats, his 2026 workload still stands out.
Headrick did throw 108.1 innings across High-A and Double-A in 2022, followed by 100.2 innings across Triple-A and the majors in 2023. However, that was when he was primarily a swingman, with 35 out of his 58 appearances during that time being starts. Having since moved to a full-time relief role, Headrick accumulated just 69.1 innings ]over 2024 and 2025 across the minors and the majors. In other words, 2026 Headrick has already thrown more innings than his previous two years combined. If I were him, I’d be asking for a hefty raise in the offseason if I wasn’t pre-arb.
With any pitcher — and perhaps doubly so for relievers, who are as a group inherently fickle — a marked increase in workload comes with two red flags: heightened injury risk, and potential decline in performance. I can’t speak on the former, as I’m not a medical professional. However, I can provide some assurance regarding the latter, as despite being worked harder than ever before, Headrick isn’t showing many signs of slowing down.
Yes, it’s true that Headrick’s ERA has risen a bit recently. From the start of the season through July, he posted a 1.30 ERA in 55.1 innings. Since then? A 4.00 mark across 18 innings. However, a look at Headrick’s underlying numbers suggests that this has more to do with bad luck than his workload catching up to him.
If Headrick was truly gassed, we’d expect that to show in several areas of his FanGraphs page. For example, if his stuff was diminished, we’d expect his strikeout rate to decrease and his walk rate to increase. But looking at his splits pre- and post-August, the opposite has happened. Headrick’s actually fanning batters at a higher rate since August 1st (32.2%) than before (29.4%), while his walk rate since (7.4%) is also slightly lower than before (7.8%), even including last night’s two-walk outing. If there has been a decline in Headrick’s stuff, it sure isn’t showing up here.
Of course, it might be that Headrick is allowing harder contact as he runs on fumes. However, the data doesn’t really support this hypothesis either. His hard contact rate was 26.4 percent from March-July, and from the start of August onward that has risen all the way to … 26.5 percent. His batted-ball mix is basically the same, too—he’s generated grounders and fly balls at roughly the same rates. The only difference is that recently more of his fly balls allowed have been leaving the park. His HR/FB rate was a miniscule 3.4 percent prior to August, but since then that’s jumped up to 10.5 percent. However, HR/FB has proven to be a fickle statistic, and very few pitchers have shown the ability to consistently suppress it. Given the fact that a 10.5 percent HR/FB is still below league average, I’m comfortable saying that this shouldn’t be cause for alarm.
The most likely culprit for Headrick’s heightened ERA seems to be worse luck on batted balls. Here’s his 15-game rolling BABIP, through the beginning of play yesterday:
If we superimpose his 15-game rolling ERA- trends on this graph, we can see how closely the two trends coincide:
And if we compare that to his FIP- trends, we can see how Headrick’s core skills have remained consistent despite fluctuations in his surface stats:
So, in my humble opinion, the fact that Headrick’s ERA has risen a bit of late shouldn’t scare you.
At Headrick’s core, he’s still the shutdown reliever he was earlier in the year; he’s just run into a patch of bad luck. Of course, this doesn’t preclude the possibility to Headrick’s workload catching up to him eventually, and we’d be remiss if we didn’t note that his average fastball velocity in September (93.2 mph) is lower than any previous month (below May’s 93.9 mph). It’s not an enormous dip and it’s possible that the adrenaline of the postseason could boost it back up in certain outings.
Nonetheless, Aaron Boone and Matt Blake should of course be monitoring his health closely; going into the playoffs without a fully functioning Headrick would be less than ideal, to say the least. As of now however, Headrick seems to be just fine, and that’s good news for the Yankees as they enter the most crucial part of the season.
SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 25: Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates warms up prior to the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Ryan Levy/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes (10-11, 3.83 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (6-7, 2.83 ERA)
Sorry we missed some game threads, y’all. We’ve had some moving parts in scheduling, so that falls on me.
But to the game, the Pirates are at .500, but with the season fast dwindling away, they are still 5.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. The MLB Playoffs are not likely, barring a miracle.
Still, it would be nice to see the Bucs finish strong, and especially for Paul Skenes to finish strong after a difficult season for the ace.
Oklahoma City's Ryan Fitzgerlad throws to first during a minor league baseball game between the Oklahoma City Comets and the Albuquerque Isotopes at Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark in Oklahoma City, Friday, March 27, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co
The Great Lakes Loons were eliminated from the Midwest League playoffs on Friday, as the Dodgers’ High-A affiliate lost 5-0 to the Dayton Dragons (Reds) in Game 3 of the East Division playoffs.
Cam Leiter was two outs into the fourth inning with five strikeouts and only a hit and a walk allowed, but then he allowed two singles, ending his night. Matt Lanzendorfer came in and walked a batter to load the bases, then a double that brought home three for the game’s first runs. That included the first two earned runs allowed by Leiter in four starts since getting promoted to High-A.
A catcher’s interference call led to another run scoring to make it 4-0, because Lanzendorfer stepped off the rubber and didn’t deliver a pitch, but catcher Victor Rodrigues stepped in front of the plate, drawing the interference call. That was enough for Loons manager Jair Fernández, who got ejected for arguing with home plate umpire Natanael Rodriguez Garcia.
Eduardo Quintero took a 3-0 pitch off the helmet in the fifth inning — he was showing bunt, and was pulling back as he was hit by the pitch — but appeared to be okay and remained in the game in center field the rest of the way.
Emil Morales had two of the Loons’ five hits, all of them singles.
Dayton will face the Quad Cities River Bandits, a Kansas City Royals affiliate, for the Midwest League championship.
Player of the day
Though he wasn’t the most famous outfielder to get promoted from the Tulsa Drillers in the last week or so, Chris Newell put on a nice showcase of his talents on Friday night for Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Newell in the second inning hit his first Triple-A home run, a solo shot off right-hander Bryce Mayer.
That was Newell’s 23rd home run of the season to go with 22 stolen bases, his third straight season with at least 20 home run and 20 stolen bases. The 13th-round draft pick out of Virginia in 2022 over the last four seasons has 89 home runs and 92 steals.
Newell also showed off his defense, with this leaping grab in left field in the third inning, robbing an extra-base hit.
The Comets hit four home runs and Charlie Barnes tossed five scoreless innings to beat the Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Astros). Oklahoma City has won an astonishing 13 games in a row.
Oklahoma City has a four-game lead on Sugar Land in the second half of the Pacific Coast League schedule with eight games to play. The Comets also own the tiebreaker over the Space Cowboys, having beaten them in 10 of their 16 meetings in the second half. Oklahoma City’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is four.
James Tibbs III hit one of the home runs, his 29th of the season, which also knocked in his 100th run of the season, the fifth Dodgers minor leaguer this year with 100 RBI (Tulsa infielder Jake Gelof got there Thursday). Tibbs also has scored 106 runs and walked 104 times this season, joining Milwaukee Brewers Double-A slugger Andrew Fischer in select recent company among all minor leaguers.
This is incredible. Since MLB began tracking Minor League stats in 2005, no player in the Minors had ever had a season with 100+ RBI, 100+ runs, and 100+ walks.
Andrew Fischer got there earlier today. James Tibbs III just joined him.
Bobby Miller had a rough time, allowing a two-run home run in the seventh inning and a three-run shot in the eighth, both to the same guy — outfielder Lucas Spence.
Double-A Tulsa
Christian Zazueta worked around two early runs to strike out four in five innings in the Drillers’ win over the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (Royals). Zazueta, the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect, since getting promoted to Double-A has a 3.44 ERA in 12 starts with 78 strikeouts against only eight walks in 55 innings and a whopping 32.1-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JULY 31: Lucas Spence #28 of the Houston Astros reacts after hitting a RBI single in the eighth inning against the Texas Rangers at Daikin Park on July 31, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.
AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (71-70) lost 8-5 (BOX SCORE)
Mayer got the start for Sugar Land and allowed 3 runs over 4.2 innings while striking out 6. The pen struggled allowing another 5 runs as the Comets opened up a big lead. The offense got on the board in the 7th inning on a Spence 2 run home run. In the 8th, Spence connected on another home run, this time a 3 run shot. The offense was unable to score again as Sugar Land fell 8-5.
Note: Mayer has 132 K over 98 innings this season.
Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (62-74) won 5-2 (BOX SCORE)
DeVos started for the Hooks and went 4.1 innings allowing one run while striking out 4. The Hooks got on the board in the 4th inning on a Holy RBI single. The game stayed tied at one until the 9th inning when the Hooks scored 4 runs on a Holy RBI single, a run on a wild pitch and a Call 2 run single. Chirinos allowed a run in the 9th inning but held on for the 5-2 win.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 05: Clayton Beeter #39 of the Washington Nationals reacts after allowing a three run home run to Tommy Edman #25 of the Los Angeles Dodgers, for a 5-4 Dodger lead, during the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium on September 05, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After last night’s game, the Nationals made a big move in the bullpen. They demoted Clayton Beeter, who has spent much of the season as the team’s de facto closer. For a lot of the season, Beeter was one of the better arms of a bad bunch. However, he has really struggled lately and it got him demoted.
The Nationals have optioned Clayton Beeter to Triple-A Rochester.
From a pure stuff perspective, Beeter has the ability to be a quality reliever. His slider can devastate hitters when it is on point. Beeter’s fastball also sits in the mid-90’s with a lot of life. However, command has always been the biggest issue for Beeter, and it has cost him this season.
On the year, Beeter has a 14.8% walk rate. That is just not good enough unless you are striking out well over 30% of hitters. Last year, Beeter’s walk rate was even higher, but he struck out 31.7% of hitters. This year, that number is down to 22.5%. Without elite strikeout numbers, Beeter is very vulnerable.
Beeter’s fastball has also been hit hard this season, with a .317 average against. The slider is a quality offering, but it is not enough to make him a viable late inning arm. On the season, Beeter has a 4.50 ERA in 50 outings with 47 strikeouts in 48 innings. His FIP is even higher than that at 5.43.
With a 3.62 ERA in the first half, Beeter was not awful, but the wheels have really come off lately. He has been in the middle of a lot of the Nats infamous late inning meltdowns. His habit of walking guys and then allowing home runs has not been enjoyable.
You just cannot trust someone as erratic as Clayton Beeter in high leverage. Has not even been getting strikeouts at a high clip either lately
I actually think Beeter has some talent and could re-establish himself at some point. However, he needs to change things up. Beeter will either need to add a third pitch, regain some of the velocity he lost this year or improve his command. If he can do those things, he can be solid.
Being a closer always felt like a tough ask for Beeter. He is just too hit or miss. You never know if he will be able to throw strikes. With some tweaks, maybe he can emerge as a solid 7th inning guy though.
I am curious to see who replaces Beeter down the stretch and what his future looks like. With this demotion, it is clear that Beeter will need to earn his spot on the 2027 team. There is not much settled in the bullpen though, so he will have his chances.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 08: J.T. Realmuto #10 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after an out in the seventh inning against the Houston Astros at Citizens Bank Park on September 08, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We’ve gotten to a point in the Phillies’ recent playoff history where we can rank the crushing losses they have experienced at home over the last three Octobers.
Here’s my ranking from least-to-most devastating:
Game 2 NLDS vs. Dodgers (The Wheel Play Game)
Game 1 NLDS vs. Dodgers (The Teoscar Hernandez Homer Game)
Game 1 NLDS vs. Mets (The 8th Inning Meltdown Game)
Game 6 NLCS vs. Diamondbacks (The Nola Game)
Game 7 NLCS vs. Diamondbacks (The Choke Game)
From the start of the 2022 playoffs through Game 2 of the 2023 NLCS, the Phillies’ homefield advantage at Citizens Bank Park was one of baseball’s biggest storylines. They went 12-2 in their first 14 games during that stretch, with their only losses coming in Games 4 and 5 of the World Series against the Astros.
Of course, those were two crushing defeats, the first a combined no-hitter against them and the second a killer loss that sent them to Houston down 3-2 in the series.
Still, raucous crowds intimidated opponents, particularly the Atlanta Braves, who referred to playing October baseball in Philadelphia as a “hell.”
Unfortunately, CBP has been the Phils’ version of “hell” in recent postseasons, and during the regular season this year, it hasn’t provided much of a bump.
The Phillies are 1-5 in their last six home playoff games dating back to Game 6 of the 2023 NLCS against Arizona. And following Thursday’s frustrating 2-1 loss to the Astros, they fell to 41-34 at home, a .547 winning percentage. The Phils’ 41-31 road record (.569) is actually better.
Entering Atlanta for a three-game set this weekend provides the Phils a chance to peck away at the Braves’ four-game lead in the NL East. There are 15 games remaining on the schedule. The Phillies must sweep this series if they want to have any chance of catching Atlanta down the stretch. They’re also one game up on the Cubs for the first wild card spot.
Winning the division and/or the top wild card means a home playoff series in the wild card round against either the Cubs or Braves.
The idea of playing a short, best-of-three series on the road at Wrigley Field or Atlanta doesn’t sound too enticing, and after Thursday’s loss to the Astros, Bryce Harper admitted getting homefield advantage is something they definitely want.
The Phillies still have their sights on home field advantage in Red October.
“Obviously, (we're) trying to run down the Braves and the Cubs at the same time… We expect our crowds to be loud and crazy and obnoxious, talk the crap that they do to other players.” -Bryce Harper pic.twitter.com/dk5b5vQxLj
I’m not saying this should not be the goal of Harper, Wheeler, or the rest of the team’s, goal. Of course it should be and, all things being equal, you’d rather play as many home playoff games as possible. You want the Phillies to finish ahead of the Cubs and/or Braves in the standings. The Phils have had their fair share of crushing postseason losses on the road, too.
But given the nature of these Phillies, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for them to be road underdogs rather than having homefield advantage in the playoffs.
I hate talking about things like “aura” and “vibes,” but let’s be honest about the atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park during big games/series.
Yes, the fans are present, they are loud, and at the start of games, they are all-in. Hope abounds.
But as much as the players say how big an advantage the home crowd is, it’s pretty clear that this group tightens up as games progress. With each passing inning the offense remains muted, the pressure builds. With each blown save, the dread grows.
Over their last six playoff games, here is how many runs the Phils have scored in each of them: 1, 2, 2, 7, 3, and 3. That’s an average of 3.0 runs per game. In their five losses, they’ve averaged 2.2.
Now, I’m not going to sit here and tell you the offense has been a juggernaut on the road, but going back to Game 3 of the 2023 NLCS in Arizona, here are the runs they’ve scored away from CBP: 1, 5, 6, 2, 1, 8, 1. That’s an average of 3.4 runs per game.
The general idea is the offense needs to perform better overall, as does the late inning relief. And again, playing at home does have its advantages, all things being equal.
But if the mindset of the team is at all important heading into this October, perhaps embracing underdog status wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. An “us against the world” mentality. The weight of expectations on this team isn’t going to go away just because they’re the second or third wild card team, and if they lose in the opening round on the road, it won’t make the disappointment any less bitter.
But maybe forcing the Phillies to be road warriors would be better for them than feeling more comfortable as hosts for the wild card round.
NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 08: Cam Schlittler #31 of the New York Yankees pitches during the game against the Colorado Rockies at Yankee Stadium on September 8, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Regular readers know that I’ve followed one of the great Cy Young horse races in recent memory, with Cam Schlittler going great start-for-great start with the Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease. We got a little bit of separation this week, as the Athletics touched up Cease for four runs in five innings on Monday, and then Schlittler allowed just a solo shot in seven frames against the Rockies on Tuesday. Cam has crept just ahead by fWAR, enjoys a considerable lead in bWAR, and right now I think would end up at the top of most voters’ ballots.
But something struck me in the aftermath of Cam’s night against Colorado, the same night that Aaron Judge returned to the lineup. Cam Schlittler isn’t just the Cy Young favorite, but he’s built himself an MVP case. No pitcher has won the award since Clayton Kershaw for the 2014 Dodgers, and the last AL winner was 2011 Justin Verlander. Yordan Alvarez is in the hunt for the first Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera, Bobby Witt Jr. is probably the best overall player in the league, and if Junior Caminero tops the AL in home runs and plays on the Junior Circuit’s best team, he probably gets his share of votes too.
And yet here’s the thing: Cam stacks up fairly against all three of them!
Let’s take Yordan, who I think has the inside track on the award right now. Schlittler’s 0.1 fWAR back, a difference that is literally negligible, and more than three-quarters of a win better by bWAR. Alvarez’s candidacy is based around the Triple Crown, probably being the best hitter in baseball, and dragging what we thought was a finally-deflated Houston Astros team to a division title. Crappy AL West or not, that is exactly the blueprint for an MVP, if one for a slightly older voter.
Should Alvarez not win the Triple Crown, he loses a bit of his case, though he’s likely still the best hitter in the game on a division winner, one who will have played in the neighborhood of 155 games. That’s the big thing both undercutting Witt’s MVP claim while bolstering his position as best all-around player — the Kansas City shortstop has only played 128 games at time of writing, yet leads the league in fWAR and bWAR among position players. With a solid-but-not-spectacular 18 homers and 124 wRC+, the parts of his game beyond hitting are doing the heavy lifting there as well. All that and the fact that the Royals are so bad work against him when it comes to end of season awards though, and Bobby seems cursed to be the Dave Stieb of shortstops.
Junior Caminero, fittingly, is the junior candidate in this slate, trailing the rest of the field pretty clearly by WAR. The home run totals (an AL-leading 39 as of the time of writing) and the Rays’ season of devil magic help fill in some of the gaps that would otherwise leave him a downballot vote-getter that helped a lot of people’s fantasy teams, and in the end he might be just that. Great season, frightening player, but more of a top-five finisher than taking home the hardware.
Cam Schlittler leads the entire AL in bWAR, position players or no. He is virtually tied for third in fWAR. Perhaps most key to his case is the way this Yankee team has been beaten up, with four of his fellow starters seeing IL time this year. The Yankees came into the season with more starting pitching than they needed, and it ended up being just enough, with a chunk of that being because Schlittler has been so reliable, not missing a single start. Virtually every member of the regular starting lineup, save Ben Rice and Paul Goldschmidt, has been injured or demoted in some form this year, and the Opening Day center fielder, DH, and second baseman might not even finish the season on the big-league roster.
Through all that, the consistent, balancing force has been Cam’s right arm every five days.
MVPs are built on a combination of statistical success and compelling narrative — Aaron Judge’s 2022 was at that point his career-best season, but the chase for 62 is what pushed him over the line. Cam has the total value arguments, and certainly if you can make a compelling case for MVP you have to be the favorite for the Cy Young. Moreover, him being at 25 the stabilizing energy for a team that could very well have completely fallen apart, he may end up higher than you think on the ballot that means the most.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 11: Jake Burger #21 of the Texas Rangers breaks his bat on a ground ball during the second inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on September 11, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Home sweet home. The Cubs returned home and the offense produced 12 runs. Another blowout win. Another double digit run scoring game. The Cubs did what they do best. They were patient. They moved the line. They all contributed. WPA is a fickle friend. It’s a hard curve that anyone ended up with a negative score. That’s the cruel fate of early results when the game gets lopsided quickly. Over the course of nine innings, every Cub with more than one plate appearance contributed as did every pitcher who threw an inning. My friend always used to say someone had to make the outs.
I’m throwing in my proverbial white towel. We enter this last “block” of games, a tortured grouping as the two off days in the middle make it not terribly blocky. It starts with a resounding win. Many times after a game like this, I’ve noted the lack of utility of such a game. My thoughts don’t change. The Cubs aren’t more ready to win games in October because of a game like this. But, that reality has already been served. This team isn’t going to be “ready” for the postseason.
I still don’t think that means they are an automatic out. The team has playoff experience. It has a ton of talent. It has confidence. It has its league’s best player. For this year, at least. It has a chance. But it’s shortstop will surely be playing himself back into game shape and competitive groove. And he wasn’t having a great season in the first place. Its starting pitching is good, not great. Its bullpen is in disarray and there isn’t enough runway to sort out roles or get confidence back.
This organization certainly didn’t set out to be a team that tries to just flip the switch come October. The Dodgers certainly have all the looks of a team that turned it on when the calendar got to September. I expect the Yankees to follow suit. It shouldn’t be surprising to those of us who have followed the “inclusive postseason” team sports. It shouldn’t surprise that there is a growing amount of “get there at the end.” We’ve watched teams across all of the other major sports tread water and then turn it on at the end. It won’t really be noticed with the Dodgers. But that’s a team whose talent level is probably at about 115 wins that is going to win around 100. Heck, it’s very possibly too little, too late, but the Blue Jays are making a late playoff push. The Astros, the Guardians and the Padres have all made some level of late push. All of these teams have a ton of October experience.
The Cubs don’t belong in that group. They made it last year and they won a series. But it hasn’t been a storied history of late. That mini rebuild took some time and had some near misses. But injuries have crushed this team. Relying on too many pitchers with injury history or not, this team has suffered a staggering number of injuries. You had to figure it was coming on some level after last year’s team was pretty generally healthy. This team has been pretty generally not.
This team is going to trust fall into the postseason. There are no pillars, no crutches to lean on. I mean not “no” things to lean on. Their defense is at least in the conversation for historically great. Their center fielder is a superstar having a storybook season. There is a lot of experience and lot of talent. In Alex Bregman, Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes, they added to a locker room that already had Dansby Swanson with significant postseason experiences. Daniel Palencia had the amazing opportunity to close out the WBC. When the brightest lights shine, they’re going to roll out there. They probably aren’t going to be favorites. Craig Counsell is going to look at them. He’s going to ask them to just try to win one inning at a time. Don’t look ahead. Don’t focus about who’s going to throw the last inning, take the last at bat. Look to who is going to get the ball now. Whose turn it is to move the line.
Execute. Be the player you can be. Be the team you can be. It ain’t over until it’s over.
Three Positives:
It’s always good when I could list the whole team. It starts with Shōta Imanaga. He had a rough first inning, allowing a triple among three hits. He was bailed out by his catcher on a caught stealing. Then he settled down and allowed two over six. Somehow the worst start he’s ever made versus the Pirates.
Fellow countryman Seiya Suzuki had three hits, one a triple, and scored three runs.
Michael Busch had a single, double, sacrifice fly and drove in three runs. He also scored two.
Yep. I’m cheating. Alex Bregman had three hits, needing only a triple for the cycle. He drove in two and scored two.
Game 148, September 11: Cubs 12, Pirates 2 (82-66)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Carson Kelly (.194). 2-3, 2B, HBP, 2 RBI, R
Hero: Nico Hoerner (.093). 2-5, 2B, RBI
Sidekick: Shōta Imanaga (.092). 6 IP, 2 R, 4 K
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Pedro Ramirez (-.057). 1-4, 2B, 2 R
Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.033). 1-4, BB, RBI, R
Kid: Michael Conforto (-.028). 1-3, SF, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s two-run double with two outs in the second gave the Cubs a two run lead. That’s a lot of twos. (.192)
Pirates Play of the Game: Konnor Griffin’s triple leading off the game. (.091)
Note: 23 of 79 WPA events in this game were worth .000.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 147 Winner: Michael Conforto 27 of 36 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Alex Bregman +27
Pete Crow-Armstrong +24.5
Michael Conforto +17
Carson Kelly +16.5
Ben Brown +13.5
Jameson Taillon -13
Seiya Suzuki -15
Nico Hoerner -15
Dansby Swanson -17
Caleb Thielbar -18.5
Scoreboard Watching: Diamondbacks win (Cubs up 3). Padres win (Cubs up 2.5). Phillies lost (Tied and Cubs hold tiebreaker).
Up Next: Game two of the three-game set. Clay Holmes (6-7, 2.83) starts for the Cubs. Holmes is 2-3 with a 3.51 as a Cub. He’s coming off of his worst start as a Cub, allowing eight runs over four innings to the Marlins. Small sample size alert, but he’s allowed one run in 18 innings of work at home at Wrigley.
Paul Skenes is just 10-11 with a 3.83. Those numbers aren’t awful, but a real step down for him. It’s worse than that if we go back over his last 15 starts. In that span he is 4-6 with a 4.78. In two starts against the Cubs, he is 0-2 and has allowed eight runs (six earned) in 10.2 innings of work. He was quite good in his last start, shutting the Angels out for 5.1 innings and picking up a win. He only made four starts in August and hasn’t thrown 100 pitches since July. Don’t be surprised if he is on a short leash.
SPRINGFIELD, MO - APRIL 08: Liam Doyle #19 of the Springfield Cardinals pitches during the game between the Tulsa Drillers and the Springfield Cardinals at Hammons Field on Wednesday, April 8, 2026 in Springfield, Missouri. (Photo by Kaylee Vaughan/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
Sadly, the minor league season is winding to a close with only Springfield and Memphis still playing. I thought now would be a good time to check out how last year’s draft class fared in their first professional season.
First Round (5th overall) – Liam Doyle, LHP
Doyle started the season slow, but ended up with a very solid stat line to finish out his first full season. Remember, the Texas League is an extremely hitter-friendly environment with a league ERA of 5.03. His K% of 30% was excellent (league average 24.3%) and his BB% of 12.5% was slightly elevated (league average 11.3%). It may not have been the year that some hoped for from Doyle, but he stayed healthy and got better as the season progressed. Over his final eight starts, Doyle had a 1.50 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 42 innings against just 16 walks and one home run allowed.
Doyle was tasked with developing his secondary pitches this year to supplement his electric fastball, so if you buy into the narrative that his slow start was a product of reworking his repertoire, you can come out of 2026 feeling like Doyle’s campaign was a massive success. If you prefer the negative interpretation, you can see an overall stat line that is good rather than great with the high-effort delivery and elevated walk rate leaving the relief risk still a very real concern.
Here is how Doyle stacks up against the next two pitchers drafted.
Seth Hernandez got off to an excellent start across 74 innings in his debut season. As a high schooler, Hernandez was probably not a real consideration for the Cardinals, but if he keeps up his current trajectory, this could turn into a painful miss that we look back on for a long time.
Many people were surprised that the Cardinals took Doyle over Jamie Arnold. At the time of the draft, Arnold was seen as one of the higher-floor pitching prospects available. He also put up a solid debut season, but still looks like a pitchability back-of-the-rotation arm without Doyle’s upside.
Second Round (55th overall) – Ryan Mitchell, OF
Mitchell had an odd debut season. Drafted out of high school, he was seen as one of the more polished prep bats available. While his excellent plate approach and feel for the barrel showed up, he struggled mightily to make contact. On the positive side, he played all year as a 19-year-old at Palm Beach and carried a solid 112 wRC+. On the negative side, he carried an alarming 33.1% strikeout rate. While he did manage to hit 13 home runs, his ISO was only .135 and his exit velocity metrics were below average.
To put Mitchell’s season into perspective, here is how he stacks up against the next two high school bats taken in the draft.
Becker was an even bigger over-slot signing than Mitchell and played more than half of the season in the Complex League before struggling to a 65 wRC+ in his 29 Low-A games. Moss had a solid season but did not show much in the way of power. Mitchell will clearly need to show a ton of development in either the power or contact portions of his game, but he did enough to stay on the prospect radar in his first season.
Competitive Balance B (72nd overall) – Tanner Franklin, RHP
After being drafted, Franklin quickly became one of the most hyped prospects in the system thanks to his 70-grade fastball and the knowledge that the Cardinals would try him out as a starting pitcher. He more than lived up to the hype in his first full season. Franklin ramped his innings up from 38.2 at Tennessee to 105 while advancing all the way to Double-A Springfield.
Even with the innings increase, Franklin seemed to maintain his velocity as the season progressed and was still hitting triple digits in his Springfield debut. I assume he will start next season back in Springfield, but at his current trajectory, he could factor into the St. Louis pitching plans sometime in 2027.
Third Round (89th overall) – Jack Gurevitch, 1B/3B
Gurevitch has had an excellent first pro season as well. His 30 home runs rank 23rd in the minors. He torched Palm Beach for 28 games, putting up an absurd 109.9 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity and maxing out at 115 mph. After being promoted to Peoria, he kept the party going with 17 home runs in 59 games. In Springfield, he has finally encountered some resistance with a strikeout rate of 40% and a wRC+ of 79.
It is a super volatile profile for Gurevitch. He will be limited to a corner infield position, and according to scouting reports, third base may be a stretch. Still, he has some of the best raw power in the minor leagues, so if he can keep his contact rates up, he has middle-of-the-order upside. All things considered, Gurevitch has increased his prospect stock significantly with his showing this year.
The Cardinals went $100K over-slot to grab Crossland in the fourth round. He obviously struggled with command as evidenced by his 16.5% walk rate, but he did cut it to 12.1% after being promoted to High-A Peoria. Crossland topped out at 98 mph in college, so there is hope he has more in the tank from a velocity standpoint, but he averaged only 92.1 mph during his time at Palm Beach. Crossland’s changeup is his calling card as he averaged 19.3 inches of armside movement with the pitch and used it as his primary strikeout weapon. For perspective, this would rank second in the MLB behind Devin Williams’ 20.7 inches.
Crossland will surely be given a chance to continue starting next year, but with an outlier secondary pitch, he could be an interesting bullpen option down the road.
Fifth Round (150th overall) – Ethan Young, RHP
The Cardinals again went over-slot in the fifth round to bring Young into the mix. Like Franklin, he was a reliever in college who the Cardinals planned to try out as a starter. Young gets an incomplete grade as he was limited to just ten starts because of injury. He did make it back for two starts to finish the year, so he should be healthy heading into 2027. Despite the inflated 7.26 ERA, the underlying metrics looked good with a 35.3% strikeout rate against an 11.3% walk rate.
Young was the last of the big bonus prospects in the draft, so I won’t spend as much time going through the remaining picks.
Other Pitchers
The Cardinals targeted interesting fastballs later in the draft with less focus on command or polish than in years past. While none of these pitchers set the world on fire, there could still be some interesting stuff to work with.
Payton Graham (RHP) made his return from Tommy John surgery, which has to be seen as a positive. He flashed a plus fastball with 19 inches of induced vertical break and topped out at 97.4 mph. Ty Van Dyke (RHP) got some attention early in the season by posting a 1.64 ERA at Palm Beach across his first seven starts, but had more pedestrian numbers upon his promotion to Peoria. Jake Shelagowski (RHP) was the Cardinals’ annual prospect no one had heard of on draft day out of Division II Saginaw Valley State. He posted solid numbers and popped 98.7 mph on the gun before his season was cut short by an injury in June. Dylan Driessen (RHP) averaged over 20 inches of induced vertical break on his fastball and topped out at 98.7 mph. He pitched exclusively out of the bullpen, but could be an interesting name to watch if he can get the walks under control.
Other Hitters
On the hitting side, none of the late-round picks broke out in the way that Deniel Ortiz did from the 2024 draft. There might be a utility player in this group, but the early returns are a bit boring.
Outfielder Matthew Miura posted elite Chase and Whiff rates but did not show any power in his debut. Miura is a good defender and runner capable of handling center, so there might be some upside here, but a fourth or fifth outfielder track looks most likely. Jalin Flores skipped straight to High-A. He played all over the infield and seems capable of handling short, so he could carve out a future as a utility infielder.
Overall, I think you have to be happy with the class’s performance. Tanner Franklin and Jack Gurevitch both had legitimate breakout seasons. Liam Doyle stayed healthy and showed positive momentum. Cade Crossland also finished strong and could be ready for Double-A in his second season. Of the high-bonus crew, only Ryan Mitchell and Ethan Young had disappointing seasons, but neither struggled in a way that should cause them to be written off completely. This has been one of the most encouraging minor league seasons in recent memory for the Cardinals, and the 2025 draft class was a big part of the success.
KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 03: Jac Caglianone #14 of the Kansas City Royals looks on during the game between the Miami Marlins and the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Thursday, September 3, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Kyle Rivas/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Jac Caglianone took on-field batting practice before Friday’s series opener against the Red Sox at Fenway Park for the first time since suffering a Grade 1 flexor strain in his left elbow in Saturday’s loss to the Blue Jays.
Before taking a regular rotation with the last hitting group, Caglianone also hit in the indoor batting cage and shagged balls in right field.
While manager Matt Quatraro could not say whether or not Caglianone would be available to pinch-hit Friday, he was encouraged by the progression of his right fielder.
We all know much more about Cross. He was picked ninth overall in that same 2022 draft and just reached Omaha for the first time this season. It was a combination of injuries and poor play, though it’s fair to wonder if one informed the other. He didn’t have his first multi-hit game until May 10, but eventually made an adjustment to add a toe tap to his swing. Even though he’s hitless in his last two games, he’s hitting .291/.338/.563 since the start of June with 16 home runs and 13 doubles. He came back from another injury on August 26 and has 25 strikeouts in 52 plate appearances since then, but before the injury had a 43-game stretch where he was hitting .337/.390/.639.
I don’t know if he’s figured out how to hit or not. I do know he’s a solid defender in a corner and can probably cosplay as a center fielder for a game or two still. Guys like Cross don’t get picked a ton because the strikeouts are probably concerning, but he has real power, and I think he’d probably get picked if there is a draft. My question is if the Royals would rather simply use him as part of a trade before that and not worry about it, but I can’t predict the future, so I’m very much on the fence if I’d add him. I think I would, but I go back and forth.
He’s probably fine because his contract runs through 2029. That said, the Royals are in last place and will have a losing record for the second straight year under Quatraro. He needs to rebound in 2027, but he’ll likely keep his job for now.
