Category: Baseball

The bats have come alive, as the San Diego Padres look to complete the three-game sweep against the Miami Marlins this morning. It is a feat that has occurred only three times in 2026.

The last was against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park on June 22-24. The Padres’ other two sweeps came against the Seattle Mariners, once in San Diego on April 14-16 and the other in the Great Northwest on May 15-17.

Saturday’s results 

For the Friars, it all came together, as the offense and pitching worked in unison for a 7-2 win over the Marlins. The hitting star was Ty France, who drove in three runs, and JP Sears was the bulk pitcher yesterday afternoon. He threw 3.1 scoreless innings to earn his third win of the season. 

The Padres began the scoring with France’s two-run single in the third inning. Later, he knocked in another run with an RBI single in the eighth. The Friars added a sacrifice fly from Gavin Sheets in the seventh, Jase Bowen drove in two runs in the eighth, and Jake Cronenworth closed out the scoring with an RBI single in the ninth. 

Jackson Merrill is swinging a hot bat. Saturday was his third multi-hit game over the last five starts. 

The Marlins scored the first of their two runs on a sacrifice fly by Otto Lopez in the third inning. Kyle Stowers closed out the scoring with an RBI single in the eighth inning. Starting pitcher Eury Perez had issues avoiding contact, as he surrendered three runs on seven hits in seven innings pitched. He could only muster two strikeouts on the afternoon.

Miami tied a franchise record with its 11th consecutive loss following the All-Star break.

Taking the mound: Walker Buehler (SD) vs Janson Junk (MIA)

The Padres will send out Walker Buehler to complete the sweep in South Beach. The veteran right-hander is making his 20th start this season. He enters with a 6-5 record and 5.23 ERA. Buehler has allowed 95 hits in 94.2 innings pitched. 

The hope is for him to build some momentum from his last start, as Buehler gave up two runs over 5.2 innings against the Atlanta Braves. Historically, he has been successful against the Marlins with a 2-1 record and 3.86 ERA in seven career starts.

Buehler made his major league debut against Miami and tossed five shutout innings. Let’s fast-forward to last season with the Philadelphia Phillies; he threw five scoreless innings against the Fish. 

The Marlins will send out Janson Junk (4-6, 5.09 ERA) to hopefully end their 11-game losing streak. He will be making his third start since coming off the injured list on July 9.

Junk has missed six weeks with right shin inflammation and returned to the starting rotation with an outstanding effort. The right-hander gave up one run in five innings of work against the Mariners. However, the Houston Astros hit Junk hard in his next start, as he gave up six runs in four innings.

Today’s lineup

And now, here they are! The most daredevil group of baffling baseballers to ever whirl their wheels in the Wacky Baserunning Races! Competing for the title of the world’s wackiest baserunner! The competitors are approaching the baseline… The first is Jumbled-Up J.T., who dashes back to second when staying at third would do just fine…

You get the point. I could go on with the comparison, but it would feel a little mean, and also, there’s no Phillies who really make a reasonable match for Dick Dastardly and Muttley. Plus, it’s not at all accurate. Despite all the frustration with the Phillies baserunning errors against the Dodgers on Tuesday night, the Phillies are one of the best baserunning teams in all of baseball.

Statcast tracks Baserunning Run Value, which sums up the value of bases taken via the steal, and extra bases taken on non-steal plays. By that metric (all stats prior to Saturday’s games), the Phillies rank third in all of baseball, with six runs added via the basepaths. They also rank third in the National League East, thanks to the baserunning excellence of the Marlins and Nationals. It’s a speedy division; except for the Mets, who are tied for dead last with Toronto (those birds really can’t fly). Granted, it’s pretty bunched up at the top; the Phillies are tied with four other clubs, and they’re only two runs behind the Fish for first. But the point is that the Phillies are quite good at adding to their offense with baserunning. It certainly isn’t a weakness for the club.

But that’s at the big-picture level. When you break Baserunning Run Value into its components of Runs via Extra Bases Taken and Runs via Stolen Bases, a somewhat more complex narrative emerges. The Phillies are best in baseball in runs taken via stolen bases, with five (tied with Washington and Pittsburgh, and being as good at thievery as a team named for piracy is a real feather to put in your cap). But they’re not exceptional at taking extra bases on non-steal plays. The Phils have added just a single run with their baserunning on such plays, ranking 14th. They’re not bad at it, contra the appearance from Tuesday night; twelve teams have lost runs with their baserunning decisions on non-steals. But their overall strength at baserunning is heavily tilted by their excellence at stealing.

Speaking of that excellence, let’s take a deeper look at it. The Phillies are just about average at attempting steals, with their 72 attempts ranking 14th league-wide. But they rank fourth for stolen base advances to second above average (and tenth for advances to third). In other words, they’re not unusually likely to attempt steals, but they are unusually likely to succeed when they do. That excellence is largely the result of the speed of Bryson Stott and Trea Turner; who are two of the three Phillies with double digit steal attempts. The third is Justin Crawford, who’s attempted a fair number of steals, but whose run value on them is zero (which is to say he’s neither really hurt or helped the team with those steals). Only two other Phillies have more than five steal attempts: Brandon Marsh, whose nine attempts have positively contributed to the team’s baserunning run value, and Bryce Harper, who has tried to steal seven times, and who’s underperformed on those attempts.

When it comes to taking extra bases on non-steal plays, most of the Phillies who have played enough to reach qualified status have contributed positively. Stott, Marsh, Turner, Crawford, and yes, J.T. Realmuto have all contributed positive run value on extra bases taken. Harper and Kyle Schwarber grade out as negative in that regard. Harper is eager to try to take the extra base, having done so 38 times, more than any other Phillie. But that eagerness takes as much from the team as it gives: he’s added two runs via his basepath ambition, and lost two runs on plays where it resulted in him being thrown out (and ends up in the negative overall because he lost a run’s worth of value on plays where he should’ve tried to take the extra base but didn’t). Conversely, Stott, who’s the second-most likely Phillie to try for the extra base, has added three runs of value on attempts, and lost none on being thrown out; he’s better than Harper at balancing ambition and prudence. If you’re wondering about Realmuto, he’s added one run’s worth of value with his attempts to take extra bases, and lost none on being thrown out. That game-ending play on Tuesday night was ugly, but it really does seem to be more of an aberration than an accurate reflection of how he performs.

Taking overall baserunning run value into account, all but two qualified Phillies grade out positively: only Harper and Schwarber are in the negatives. For Schwarber, that’s likely just a reflection of his lack of speed, and for this he can surely be forgiven. For Harper, it’s a combination of his somewhat subpar speed (47th percentile) and his overzealousness on the base paths. The biggest problem the Phillies have with baserunning, then, is that Schwarber isn’t fast, and that Harper is a little reckless. That can lead to the occasional moment of frustration as Harper rounds first on a play where he really ought to be satisfied with a single, and I wouldn’t wag my finger at any member of the Phlock that groans upon seeing it.

I would, however, note, that if your biggest problem on the basepaths is a superstar who’s a little too eager to throw caution to the wind, you’re doing pretty well. The poor, sluggish Blue Jays, playing on clipped wings, have just a single player who’s added a run via taking the extra base. They’d surely trade places with the Phillies. The Marlins rank first in baserunning run value, but they’d be doing even better if it weren’t for Liam Hicks, who ranks dead last in baseball with -5 runs in that metric. They’d surely prefer Harper’s baserunning style over his. If you’re really frustrated about Harper’s overweening confidence as a runner, you could take a page from the Dick Dastardly playbook and wrap a chain around his leg as he tries to leave first. But probably better not to. It never seems to work out for that double-dealing do-badder, anyways.

Christmas in July continues as we roll into one of our favorite series of the year – our Top 30, midseason addition. After a strong draft in 2025, followed by adding a lot of good talent from the international free agency period, we now take a look at the state of the franchise following the 2026 MLB draft. As I’m sure you are all aware of the Braves selected 9th overall in this draft and had 21 overall picks thanks to Drake Baldwin winning Rookie of the Year in 2025, garnering a PPI pick for the Braves. To go along with those 21 picks the Braves bonus pool was valued all the way at $15.8M giving them a lot of ammo to work with.

To kick things off we have our honorable mentions, five players that just missed the cut. These five are especially important this season as we are releasing our list a week before the trade deadline in a year where the Braves are expected to make some moves so these are some names that can find themselves on the list.

C, Jorwin Pulido

Signed out Maracay, Venezuela, Jorwin received the fifth biggest signing bonus that the Braves gave out during the 2026 International Free Agency period value around $350,000. Not too much was known about the catcher, but his impact on the organization would be quite loud, quite quickly. At 17, he’s one of the youngest in the organization and won’t turn 18 until after the season ends. Behind the plate, Jorwin has impressed coaches with his 1.8 pop time, and accurate throws to both second and third base. Jorwin has received praise for his ability to receive pitches, as well as block pitches in the dirt – though there is still room for improvement. Offensively, he has had enormous success this season. He appeared in 22 games for the DSL Braves and hit .324/.402/.437 while walking 11.5% of the time and striking out a paltry 5.7%. With that combination of defense and offense, the Braves made the aggressive decision to promote him to the FCL where he has put up even more impressive numbers slashing .389/.542/.556 in 6 games. While his strikeout rate has risen to 16.7%, which is still fantastic, his walk rate has also increased to 12.5%. In an organization that is looking for catching help, Jorwin looks like a real bright spot and someone to follow.

2B, Dixon Williams

After starting off the season sizzling hot Dixon Williams was hit hard by the regression monster as his contact rate dropped significantly during the bulk months of the season. Still, on the season Dixon is hitting .210/.322/.405 so while the hit tool has fallen off a bit, the walk rate is still there (12.2%), as well as the slugging as he’s hit 12 home runs, and 14 doubles, to go along with 20 stolen bases. The issue has been the hit tool as he is swinging and missing far too much with a strikeout rate that approaches 30%. He has gotten slightly unlucky shown by his .266 BABIP, but the issue really points to the swing and miss that his profile currently exhibits. That being said, there is still tremendous upside with Dixon as long as the swing and miss declines because of his ability to get on base, and hit for power.

SS, Jose Perdomo

After a bit of a disaster in 2025 where he hit just .223/.275/.270, Jose showed up in great shape looking to change the narrative of his career. Jose was rewarded with a promotion to Augusta to start the season, despite the subpar numbers in the FCL, but his 2026 ended extremely quickly as he found himself on the full season IL after just two games in the season. It’s crazy to think but Jose will be entering what is technically his fourth season of professional baseball in 2027, but has played a total of 64 games. Expectations will be significant next season as Jose must not only show health, but mammoth improvements across the board, to stay on the list.

SS, Juan Mateo

An international free agent signing from 2024, Juan Mateo has had a very solid 2026 campaign. A contact first player, Juan has shown improvements from his 2025 campaign – including hitting two home runs this season. There is still reason to believe he will add more power because his frame is still light, but as is he possesses the skills to be a utility type of player that can play across the entire field. On the season Juan is hitting .250/.323/.336 with a 9.7% walk rate to go with a strikeout rate of 19.1% along with 17 stolen bases. While he hasn’t quite had the 2026 we expected, he has exceeded nearly all of his numbers from 2025 which is a huge positive.

RHP, Cole Dennis

Drafted in the fourth round of this years MLB draft, Cole Dennis debuts in our honorable mentions despite not having thrown a single pitch – thanks to a very intriguing pitching profile. As is, Cole has a big arm – having hit 96 MPH at the combine however he will definitely need make that a lot more consistent. His curveball/slider has the makings of being a plus pitch, and as you can see in the post below he has an extremely low spinning changeup that he will need to get more comfortable throwing, but has serious possibilities. Cole will take some time to develop but with his size, and arm potential, there is a lot to like about the fourth round pick and what he can do on the mound.

Sometimes you’ve just got to show faith in the youngsters, right? Indeed, it appears as if former Braves shortstop and current Braves manager Walt Weiss has decided to stick with current rookie Braves shortstop Jim Jarvis the day after he made a couple of crucial errors in the field during Saturday night’s walk-off loss to the Orioles.

Here’s the lineup for Atlanta:

Indeed, Jim Jarvis is in there and batting ninth — just like he did on Saturday. Hopefully we’ll see Jarvis bounce back from the rough outing with the glove and we’ll see him contribute to what will hopefully be a series win for the Braves today. That’s the most notable news about Atlanta’s lineup today as the lineup is actually identical to what they put out there for Saturday night. There’s still no news about Eli White following his exit from last night’s game, so there’s that.

Here’s how the Orioles are looking for today’s contest:

Old friend Chadwick Tromp will end up starting all three games during this series against the Braves, so this really has been a bit of a reunion with a player who spent a lot of time in Atlanta’s organization over the past couple of years. Colton Cowser also returns to the lineup in center field after Leody Taveras got the start for Saturday’s contest.

Today’s game is scheduled for a 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch, so make sure to join us in the chat and discussion thread later on!

The Nats made a major move last night that will have some serious ripple effects. I wanted to take a look at three big things to come out of the Connelly Early trade. We will look at what it means for the likes of Foster Griffin, Brady House and of course Early himself.

First, I want to talk about what it means for the man actually getting traded. For Connelly Early, he will now be a staple in the Nats rotation. That was probably going to be the case in Boston, but it was becoming less certain. With Payton Tolle, Ranger Suarez, Jake Bennett and the injured Garrett Crochet, the Red Sox rotation was very left-handed.

There was a chance that Early could have been lost in the shuffle. However, he will be allowed to shine in DC. He will be able to attack with his deep mix of pitches with no fear. Early won’t be a free agent until 2032, so he will be with the Nats for the long haul.

Paul Toboni is clearly a believer in Early, having drafted him back in 2023 and now trading for him. There is a good reason for this as well. Despite being drafted in the fifth round, Early raced through the minor leagues, only throwing 206 innings before reaching the bigs. He is such a polished and refined arm who should be a quality starter for a long time.

We also saw last year that Early is not afraid of the moment. He made a playoff start last year in a winner take all game. While the Red Sox did not win that game, Early pitched well, and got quite unfortunate in that outing, with his defense letting him down.

However, I want to talk about what this means for some other guys. One player this is very important for is Brady House, who will be replacing Curtis Mead at third base. House came into the season as the starting third baseman, but got his job taken by Mead. While House did make some strides offensively, he still had his flaws and the defense regressed.

Since being sent down, House has performed well, hitting over .300 with an .842 OPS. He continued his dominance against left handed pitching and is actually making more contact. House’s 23.9% K rate in AAA is lower than what it was last year when he struck out 26.5% of the time. His profile in AAA is very Brady House like, but that average zone contact rate is something that could elevate the profile.

House only turned 23 last month, but his future is still up in the air. He will need to prove he is good enough to lock down that starting third base role and will have a golden opportunity to do that. This is such a huge moment in House’s career and hopefully he can take advantage of it.

Throughout House’s career, he has constantly improved, albeit at a pretty slow, methodical pace. Every year House gets a little bit better, but still has the same issues in his profile. I think House has the potential to be an everyday player, but he will have to prove himself.

Lastly, I think this move impacts Foster Griffin. In my opinion, a trade is more likely now. While Early is hurt right now, he will be back this season. On paper, Early can slide into Griffin’s spot in the rotation. Early may not be Griffin caliber right now, but he is a similar profile and has that sort of upside. He can be a Foster Griffin caliber arm who is controllable for the next half decade.

That is not to say Griffin will not be missed. The lefty has been an absolute horse for this team. Foster Griffin starts have become close to a scheduled win for the Nats. The team is 17-4 when he starts, which is just bonkers. Blake Butera has a ton of trust in him, regularly pushing him very deep into ballgames. Early is talented, but he is not quite there yet.

However, Early can do a decent enough Griffin impression. He gets pretty deep into games for a young pitcher, averaging 5.39 innings per start, which is higher than Cade Cavalli. With Early sliding into the Griffin spot, it eases the blow of losing Foster. That makes it easier for Toboni to get all the assets he can for Griffin, who is a free agent after the season.

I think this deal is a good indication of what the Nats will do at the deadline. They will sell pieces, but they are still on the prowl for pitching. The likes of Griffin and Garcia could be traded, but I think we will see more arms come through the door. A reliever or two coming to DC feels likely at this point.

This only adds to my intrigue for the deadline. It will be different from previous deadlines because the Nats are threading a needle here. They are simultaneously looking to add for the future while staying relatively competitive in the present. This Mead for Early trade is the perfect example of this idea.

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The Toronto Blue Jays go for the series win at Fenway Park this afternoon, sending Kevin Gausman to the mound against Boston Red Sox left-hander Ranger Suarez.

Toronto’s pitching has been overpowering all weekend, and I’m backing Gausman to keep the strikeouts coming in my top play.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for this Sunday, July 26 matchup.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions

Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-110)

I’ve had some luck with pitcher props lately, and the Toronto Blue Jays staff is on a roll with strikeouts. Toronto racked up 13 strikeouts against the Boston Red Sox on Friday, then Dylan Cease delivered a one-hit shutout with 12 more on Saturday. I expect Kevin Gausman to keep it going in the finale.

Gausman hasn’t been himself this year, but if you toss out his last disastrous start (3 1/3 innings, four earned, one strikeout), he had punched out at least seven in each of the three starts before it.

His splitter has been much sharper in July, up to a 45% whiff rate, with hitters slugging just .182 on it and no extra-base hits. 

Boston just faced Cease, who lives with high fastballs and low offspeed, and Gausman works the same way. Anecdotally, I also believe he’ll be dialed in with a potential trade looming. I’d play his strikeout prop until -120.

COVERS INTEL: Kevin Gausman has recorded seven and 10 strikeouts, respectively, in his last two starts against the Red Sox.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

I’ll start with Blue Jays moneyline at plus money, where the value is real. The Jays have still won six of eight meetings with Boston this year, and Ranger Suarez is on a workload limit in his return from the injured list. 

I’ll pair the moneyline with Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts from my best bet, then add Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases, leaning on his massive history at Fenway Park and his platoon edge against the left-hander.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox SGP

• Blue Jays moneyline
• Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases

Blue Jays vs Red Sox home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+675)

It would be unwise to let the Blue Jays leave Fenway Park without a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run bet. As every Jays fan knows, you’d be in the hole backing Vladdy to homer every day, but the venue changes the math. 

He owns the best hitting numbers at Fenway among active players, with a 1.017 OPS, 12 home runs, and 51 RBI in just 58 games.

I’ll keep this to a quarter unit, since Guerrero has a tall task against Red Sox starter Ranger Suarez and his career 0.8 HR/9. Still, Vladdy has been far better against lefties this year, with an .806 OPS against southpaws compared to .679 against righties. I’d play down to +600.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +115 | Boston -135
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-175) | Boston -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend

The Blue Jays have won six of their eight meetings with the Red Sox this season, including a June sweep and Saturday’s shutout. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Red Sox and game info

Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather

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The Boston Red Sox are real buyers. No, like legitimately.

Going from one of the worst teams in the AL to the hottest in baseball and into a Wild Card slot changed hearts and minds—in the front office and across Red Sox Nation. The conversation has flipped from theorizing about selling to being a team that would be remiss not to add before August 3rd at 6pm. Craig Breslow has a little over a week and prospect capital to spend. The question isn’t whether to buy. It’s what each move actually costs.

Here’s where Boston can add, and what it’ll take.

The Catcher

Combined catcher line in 2026: .233/.318/.320, four home runs in 359 plate appearances. Four. Connor Wong is a plus defender who earns his roster spot. Carlos Narváez is better offensively and has a cannon of an arm. Neither is consistently the bat you want crouching behind the plate when October arrives.

Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins

Red Sox get: Ryan Jeffers Twins get: Nick Sogard, Allan Castro

The achievable option. Jeffers is hitting .287 with a .950 OPS on an expiring deal—free agent after the season, which keeps the return price manageable. Sogard is slashing .304/.429/.435 since his call-up and is a real MLB contributor, not filler. Castro is a #14 prospect at Triple-A witTh switch-hitting upside. For a rental catcher putting up those numbers, this is a credible offer. The Yankees are also calling, so this one doesn’t sit on the table for long.

The Middle Infield

This is one they’ve already done! Maybe, depending on how the positions shake out and Franklin Arias’ timeline.

It started as “we could use an upgrade.” Then Trevor Story had sports hernia surgery and went on the 60-day IL, even with him progressing with baseball activities recently. Then Marcelo Mayer landed on the 10-day IL with a forearm bone stress reaction and is still a ways away from coming back—weeks most likely. Now you’re running a prospect-and-utility-heavy rotation with Romy Gonzalez, Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, and Tsung-Che Cheng as your starting middle infield in a pennant race. Those guys have been good. That is not a postseason middle infield and everyone knows it.

So is Curtis Mead the answer? We’ll find out.

The Reliever

Luke Weaver, New York Mets

Red Sox get: Luke Weaver

Mets get: Enddy Azocar, Anthony Eyanson

The Mets have pieces available and Weaver keeps coming up. The problem: you’d have to overpay to get him out of New York, and this team needs starting pitching more than a hit-or-miss setup man. Eyanson in a Weaver deal is too much—a top-3 system arm for a reliever who has good stretches and rough ones. If a cheaper Mets piece falls into place at a lower cost, fine. But if it’s Weaver or a real rotation arm, the rotation wins every time.

Why not Mason Miller? That arms race isn’t worth touching. The price is more eye-watering than you can imagine.

The Starting Pitcher

Jake Bennett has been outstanding. Payton Tolle has stepped up. Patrick Sandoval is healthy and serviceable. None of that means you run them into the ground in a pennant race without cover. This rotation needs a veteran arm who takes real pressure off the young guys.

Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals

Red Sox get: Foster Griffin

Nationals get: Allan Castro, Harold Rivas

Griffin is 11-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 117.1 innings on a $5.5 million expiring deal. Rival executives around the league are calling this trade “inevitable.” The Nationals are a developing team who understand the rental market—they know Griffin isn’t bringing back a top-5 prospect because he doesn’t have years of control. Castro is a #14 prospect at Triple-A, a switch-hitting outfielder with legitimate upside. Rivas is the lottery ticket at 17. The package is light for an arm having this kind of year, but expiring deals have a return ceiling and if Washington wants to move fast, this gets the conversation very real, very quickly. The one wrinkle worth noting: Griffin is a lefty, which puts him in a rotation that already has Rivera, Sandoval, Tolle and potentially Crochet as southpaws. It gets repetitive unless one of those names moves in a bigger deal.

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

If the Sox are already deep in an Angels conversation about Neto, Soriano is worth asking about in the same breath. Heyman reported the Angels are making him available alongside Detmers. He’s 97 mph, under team control through 2028, and an actual rotation upgrade with years of staying power—not a rental. And a righty, which solves the rotation handedness problem entirely. The price reflects that control. But if LA is clearing house and the Sox are already on the phone, it costs nothing to ask.

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Lower cost, expiring deal, legitimate innings-eater. Not an ace—a #3/#4 arm who takes the ball every fifth day and doesn’t give the game away. The Reds are selling. The price shouldn’t crack the top of the system. This is the right-sized option if the bigger names don’t materialize, and there’s no shame in that.

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Red Sox get: Michael Wacha

Royals get: Yoelin Cespedes, Nick Sogard

We’ve talked about Wacha before in this space. He’s 5-7 with a 3.66 ERA in Kansas City and is having the best sustained run of his last few years. He’s always available. He’s always fine. And “always fine” has real value as rotation depth when things go sideways in September. Cespedes is a former top-10 prospect in the system working through contact issues at High-A. Sogard is a current MLB contributor. This isn’t a blockbuster—it’s the sensible fallback if the bigger targets don’t come through.

The Bottom Line

Breslow doesn’t have to do all of these. But the priorities are clear: shore up the catcher situation, get a shortstop, find a starting pitcher who can take real load off the young arms. The windows that close fastest are the ones where the front office watches the right moment arrive and spends three years explaining why they held back.

Eleven days. Go spend some of that capital.

The Mets conclude a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on SNY on Sunday afternoon at 1:40 p.m.

Mets Notes

• Freddy Peralta has a 5.01 ERA on the season and is coming off a start in which he allowed seven earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Brewers
• Francisco Lindor is hitting .308 with a .500 slugging percentage over his last seven games
• The Mets are 21-30 at Citi Field this season

Today's Lineups

It came up in the comments yesterday as to why there is so much talk around a 17-game stretch like this. Every team has at least one and often a couple of these every year. This one grew to 17 when the Toronto game in Chicago in June got rained out and had to be rescheduled. I laughed, because that happened the weekend I was in New Hampshire to see Banana Ball. That’s going on this weekend in Wrigley. I’ve seen two Banana games and find them very much different in a jarring way for a serious baseball fan. But also fun.

I’d have not gone back to see them a second time, but the second time my daughter was working the game. I don’t think I’ve talked about it here and I know a few of you will recall that I had talked about her while she was at Bradley studying sports communication with a hope of getting a job in baseball. She made it. She’s working for the Blue Jays Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire. She is the director of the stadium experience. Basically, she oversees the broadcast, social media and the stuff that ends up on the scoreboard. It was the first time I’ve gotten to see her working there. Though obviously, the Banana people handle a lot of their own production and she was kind of a bystander for that.

Anyway, what about this stretch of games? More than anything, 162 games is a lot to take in. It doesn’t break down easily the way football does, with one week being a significant chunk of the season. For baseball, that’s like 9 or 10 games. So you need these subsections. In this instance, this chunk is really readily identifiable. To the commenter’s credit, he noted that the Cubs were pretty rested coming off the long break, then just six games before another off day. That’s about as well as one of these stretches could land. As much as the beginning of the season, your pitchers aren’t worn out, you always want extra time early in the year. You are trying to figure out roles for everyone and building endurance. So if you told me I HAD to take one of these stretches, this is just about perfect.

The thing about these stretches is that they absolutely can bury your season. You get one of these and start slip and sliding it away and you could lose 12-15 games in less than three weeks and really dig a hole. To be fair, if either Matthew Boyd Friday or Shōta Imanaga Saturday had gotten hit hard, you could get sideways. Instead, they posted 13 innings between them (out of 19 total innings). Three Cub relievers each threw once. You have a whole handful of guys who go into Sunday actually actively looking to get an inning in and stay in rhythm. So still on the ideal side of the curve.

I find this stretch curious because we’ve seen this team have some pretty high highs, some pretty low lows and now get grooved in again pretty good. I don’t try to BS anyone here. I think the Cubs have a reasonable chance at winning one playoff series, an uphill battle to win two and a monumental task to win three. But I believe you do what you can. So how can this team do when it is tested? We’re going to see them tested with quality opposition and pitchers that are generally on the wrong side of the matchup pushed to be competitive. Imanaga is not going to be overmatched really by anyone as he was in this one and he came out a winner.

This is all good to see and a lot of fun. Your mileage may vary, but this is the second straight Cub season that I will describe as a lot of fun. Have I wanted to throw things at times? Absolutely. But to have three stretches of time where the team was rolling is pretty awesome (fair if you call it two, with the two 10-game winning streaks defining one longer stretch). It’s fun when you are celebrating a win almost every day. This mishmosh of a team is somehow 14 games over .500. A win on Sunday and the team will match its high point of the season. Yeah, that one’s a tough matchup too, so maybe they don’t reach the plateau again. But even driving through this neighborhood is fun. Fun for some anyway. I’m not sitting around waiting for the sky to fall.

I’m enjoying the summer of Pete Crow-Armstrong staring down Shohei Ohtani and saying “yeah, you are a once in a century type talent and all, but I think I can win this MVP.” I still kind of fail to believe he’ll win it. But it’s fun to think that if the season ended today that it should be a legit conversation. And it’s fun that if the season stays on the current trajectory, he probably should be the MVP. But Ohtani is certainly capable of getting back on an out of this world trajectory of his own and we’ve certainly see PCA slump. But man, he’s made it more of a conversation than I think anyone would ever believe.

I’m going to keep doing the perspective check. I make no secret of some of it being me talking to myself. Don’t get too high or too low. Four teams have more wins than the Cubs. One team has as many wins as the Cubs. The Cubs presently have a 3.5 game lead for the first Wild Card position in the NL. The Cubs are on a 92-win pace. They’ve booked two wins beginning this 17-game stretch. If they can go 8-7 the rest of the way through this stretch, they will emerge at 15 games over .500 which would match their highest point this year. Obviously, there are sequences where that wouldn’t be their high point including that stretch. But really, that would equate to 10 of 17 and I’d mark myself as very happy with that result. And again, I hope I’m underselling them.

Three Positives and Pete:

• One of the things I liked best about Joe Maddon was the way he liked to get a guy into a game right away after he was called up. I know I heard him say something about you never know if you’re going to have one of those weird games where you need the guy to succeed in a difficult situation and you don’t want that to be their first taste. So I always hate when the Cubs bring up minor leaguers to sit. The nature of the 26th player is a lot that way and so it kind of is what it is. But I was glad to see the lopsided game allow James Triantos to get a chance to hit and delighted that he came through with a single and then to score from first, flashing some speed. Kudos, kid. Hope there are many more fun times.
• Shōta Imanaga threw six shutout innings, allowing only four hits and a walk.
• Michael Busch had three singles and two runs batted in.
• I love the days where Pete would belong here even if I wasn’t tracking him like an obsessive ESPN bit. He had four hits, two of them doubles and one of them a homer. He drove in three, scored three and stole a base. His line climbs to .291/.390/.544 (wRC+ 156). As a side note, I can not even begin to express how cool it is that the top 11 in wRC+ as I’m looking at it includes two of my favorite ex-Cubs, a current Cub and a Ray. I’m a little sad that Willson Contreras is having an under the radar standout season. Or at least under my radar.

Game 104, July 25: Cubs 11, Pirates 0 (59-45)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Shōta Imanaga (.280). 6 IP, 23 BF, 4 H, BB, 0 R, 4 K (W 7-8)
• Hero: Dansby Swanson (.197). 2-4, 2B, RBI, R
• Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.184). 4-5, HR, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 3 R, SB

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Michael Busch (-.087). 3-6, 2 RBI
• Goat: Alex Bregman (-.073). 0-5, BB
• Kid: Ian Happ (-.055). 0-3, BB

WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s RBI double in the fifth drove in the first run of the game. (.178)

Pirates Play of the Game: Paul Skenes’ strikeout of Seiya Suzuki with runners on first and third with one out in the third. (.073)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 103 Winner: Matthew Boyd received 63 of 87 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +22
• Carson Kelly +15.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Shōta Imanaga +12
• Trent Thornton +11.5
• Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -10
• Nico Hoerner/Dansby Swanson -13
• Caleb Thielbar -14

Up Next: The third and final game of the weekend series. Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.38) makes another attempt to get his season back on track. It’s been a nightmare. In his first game back, he allowed four runs in 4.1 innings of work. He hasn’t won since April though he did have one quality start against the A’s in early June. He returns to the place where he started his career.

Braxton Ashcraft (9-4, 3.95) is just another talented Pirate starter. The second round pick (No. 51 overall) for the Pirates in 2018 is thriving in his first full season as a major league starter. But he is maybe showing a little wear for his first long season at the MLB level. He has a 4-1 record but a 5.40 ERA over his last seven starts (36.2) innings. As can happen, one game is influencing that a lot. He allowed seven runs in three innings against the Yankees on Monday. His last start before the break, the Brewers scored five in five innings. So he’s been human. Hopefully the Cub bats can stay hot and the Pirate bullpen cold.

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Games are going all day long, and I've got a ton of looks to help us end the weekend on a high note!

Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks to attack on Sunday, July 26.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Jameson Taillon	Over 2.5 earned runs	-109
Janson Junk	Under 3.5 strikeouts	+119
Eric Fedde	Over 2.5 earned runs	-108

Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 earned runs (-109)

The highest-rated offense on the slate, according to Batters-Box's current-season dataset, is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have an average hitter matchup rating of 0.514.

To put that into perspective, a rating above 0.45 is considered elite. Against Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon, the Pirates lineup features six elite-rated hitters, four with below league-average strikeout rates and only two with above league-average ground ball rates.

Taillon has struggled all season, and over his last three outings he owns a 5.40 ERA, 4.45 xERA, and 1.54 WHIP, while allowing a 44.12% hard hit rate and 11.76% barrel rate.

On top of that, five of those six elite-rated hitters will bat from the left side, and the Cubs right-hander has been hammered by lefties all season.

Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, Taillon owns a 9.75 ERA while allowing an 18.6% barrel rate and just a 27.9% ground ball rate. Those hitters have produced a .402 xBA, .807 xSLG, and .447 wOBA against him.

I think the Pirates get all over Taillon early and often. I'd still play this down to -120 if I had to.

• Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MARQ, SNP

Janson Junk Under 3.5 strikeouts (+119)

We are heading to the land down under with Miami Marlins right-hander Janson Junk, taking the Under on his strikeout prop against the San Diego Padres.

Junk has struggled tremendously, posting an 8.39 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and a 15.79% strikeout rate over his last five starts. He also owns the lowest matchup strikeout percentage on Batters-Box today at just 14.82%.

In 14 poorly rated games, Junk has stayed Under four strikeouts 57.14% of the time. While it is not the biggest sample size, it is at least above 10 games.

More importantly, in 21 games with a poor strikeout matchup, he has stayed Under this number 38% of the time. If you're looking at the Under five Ks, that hit rate jumps to 71.43% — showing Junk rarely piles up strikeouts.

The Padres are also a difficult lineup to target for punchouts. According to Batters-Box, they have zero hitters with an above league average strikeout rate and only four hitters with an above league average ground ball rate.

On top of that, only two hitters in the projected lineup own a strikeout rate of 23.3% or higher over their last 30 at bats against right-handed pitching. The Padres offense has also been swinging the bats well lately, and I think they get to Junk early this afternoon.

At +119, this is a great price. I'd play it down to +110. 

• Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MIAM, SDPA

Eric Fedde Over 2.5 earned runs (-108)

Boots will be on the ground for what I think will be a Houston Astros sweep over the Chicago White Sox, especially with Eric Fedde on the mound for Chicago.

The Astros have looked like the better team throughout this series, and even with it being Munetaka Murakami bobblehead day, I think Fedde gets lit up.

Fedde enters with the seventh-worst pitcher rating on the slate according to Batters-Box's current season dataset. He draws one elite-rated hitter in Yordan Alvarez, along with two other strong-rated bats. 

While the White Sox right-hander has improved as the season has gone on, he is still allowing a 43.66% hard hit rate over his last five starts. Even more concerning, that number jumps above 51% over his last three outings.

The Astros have also been swinging the bats well, posting a 113 wRC+, .755 OPS, and .333 wOBA over their last 21 games. They have been one of the more consistent offenses during that stretch, and I expect them to keep that rolling this afternoon.

I'd play this down to -115 at most.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN

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Dodgers pitcher Ben Casparius was back on a mound in a game for the first time in a game in three and a half months, starting a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Saturday night in Sacramento.

Casparius, out since early April with right shoulder inflammation, allowed a double and walked two in the seventh inning. He allowed one run and recorded two outs during the frame, one by strikeout.

Player of the day

Tulsa second baseman Sam Mongelli was hitless in four at-bats with two strikeouts, but who cares? He also made this ridiculous play, reacting quickly to a broken play and finished it off with a glove flip.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

The Comets were held scoreless in a blowout loss to the Sacramento River Cats (Giants).

Oklahoma City managed only one hit, a sixth-inning single by rehabbing Kiké Hernández, who played first base on Saturday.

Old friend Eddys Leonard, now playing first base in the Giants organization, homered for Sacramento.

Double-A Tulsa

The Drillers stole seven bases and held off a comeback attempt in the ninth inning to beat the the Arkansas Travelers (Mariners).

Kendall George stole two of those bases with two singles and also scored twice. Josue De Paula stole a base and tripled.

Christian Zazueta struck out seven in his four innings, with one run allowed.

High-A Great Lakes

Brady Smith had a rude welcome to the Midwest League, allowing seven runs in four innings in his High-A debut in the Loons’ loss to the Lansing Lugnuts (A’s).

Charles Davalan homered as part of a two-hit, two-run, two-RBI contest.

Class-A Ontario

After two scoreless innings of relief, Luis Gamez allowed five runs in the eighth inning in the Tower Buzzers’ loss to the San Jose Giants.

Center fielder Jaron Elkins had three hits, including a triple, in the loss.

Transactions

High-A: Left-handed reliever Cody Morse was activated after missing almost three months on the injured list.

Saturday scores

• Sacramento 11, Oklahoma City 0
• Tulsa 5, Arkansas 3
• Lansing 8, Great Lakes 5
• San Jose 8, Ontario 3

Sunday schedule

• 10:05 a.m. PT: Great Lakes (Stering Patick) at Lansing (Steven Echavarria)
• 11:35 a.m.: Tulsa (Aidan Foeller) at Arkansas (Adam Leverett)
• 1:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Jackson Ferris) at Sacramento (TBA)
• 5 p.m.: Ontario (TBA) at San Jose (TBA)

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The Philadelphia Phillies look to end their four-game losing streak against the New York Yankees tonight on Sunday Night Baseball.

With several top players in advantageous matchups, the Phillies are rightfully favored to do just that.

Let's take a closer look at my Yankees vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks on Sunday, July 26. 

Yankees vs Phillies props for July 26

Pick	Odds
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-125
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases	-105
Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 strikeouts	+108

Yankees vs Phillies player prop picks

Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-125)

Bryce Harper has recorded multiple hits + runs + RBI in 57.8% of his games against right-handed starters, and nearly 60% when playing on home soil.

He has a mouthwatering matchup against Will Warren, who has allowed a .309 average and posted horrible underlying metrics facing left-handed bats in his past six starts.

Warren is also a fastball-first pitcher, playing directly into the hands of Harper. He's hitting .407 with a .611 ISO against four-seamers thrown by righties.

It’s the perfect storm for Harper to make noise tonight, and I'd bet to -140.

Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases (-105)

Kyle Schwarber is another lefty in a prime position to do damage. Warren is giving up a lot of quality contact to lefties, and Schwarber is someone who will consistently make opponents pay when that’s the case.

He ranks in the 98th percentile in both ISO and barrel rate against righties, and has averaged — yes, averaged — 2.8 total bases per game when facing a right-handed starter at Citizens Bank.

He's crushing righties at home, and Warren’s propensity to allow hard contact should allow for that to continue. I’d play Schwarber’s bases up to -120.

Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 strikeouts (+108)

Cristopher Sanchez is elite at generating whiffs and making opponents chase, ranking in the 92nd percentile or higher in both categories.

Those skills should be highlighted against the New York Yankees, who sit last in the majors with a whopping 32.4 K% against left-handed pitching over the last 20 games.

The Yanks also sit 26th in K% vs. lefties this season, and Sanchez has averaged 9.8 punchouts against Bottom-10 opponents.

I see a lot of value at a plus-money price, and would play the Over to -115.

How to watch Yankees vs Phillies and game info

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Team News

Too many walks, not enough knocks: Summing up end to D-backs’ streak
https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/mitch-bratt-pitches-5-innings-in-d-backs-loss-to-nationals

Diamondbacks try shaking up lineup to get stars going, loss sets up key rubber match vs. Nationals https://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/try-shaking-up-lineup-to-get-stars-going-loss-sets-up-key-match-vs-nationals

Why are the Diamondbacks wearing hats that do not match their jerseys this weekend?https://arizonasports.com/threads/hats-that-do-not-match-their-jerseys-this-weekend

Diamondbacks’ Mitch Bratt is Struggling in the Majors So Farhttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/diamondbacks-mitch-bratt-struggling-majors-so-far

How Tyler Locklear Has Hit the Ground Running for Diamondbackshttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/tyler-locklear-hit-ground-running-diamondbacks

Other Baseball

Red Sox To Trade Connelly Early To Nationals For Curtis Meadhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/red-sox-trade-connelly-early-to-nationals-for-curtis-mead.html

Cardinals Sign Peter Strzelecki To Minor League Contracthttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/07/cardinals-sign-peter-strzelecki-to-minor-league-contract.html

Baseball Hall of Fame 2026: Why Beltran, Jones, Kent got inhttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47674044/baseball-hall-fame-class-2026-ballot-reveal-carlos-beltran-andruw-jones

Everything you need to know about 2026 HOF inductions
https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-hall-of-fame-2026-induction-ceremony-inductees-date-and-more

Perez passes Brett with 318 homers as a Kansas City Royalhttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49448590/perez-passes-brett-318-homers-kansas-city-royal

Trade rumors: Mason Miller suitors, Skubal, Rays, Red Sox
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-rumors-and-2026-trade-deadline-news-july-25

Talons take AUSL Championship Series opener, can clinch title today (2 p.m. ET, ESPN)https://www.mlb.com/news/ausl-championship-series-2026-game-1

Anything Goes

This day in history:

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/july-26

This day in baseball:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/July_26

Bulls run faster uphill than downhill.

This is mainly because they have longer hind legs than front legs. Their legs are also very powerful and can run at speeds of 35 mph. 

Snapple’s 1001 “Real Facts” aren’t true.

In 2002, the manufacturers of Snapple began printing “Real Facts” inside the bottle caps. However, most of this information is outdated or simply myths.

Pencils are yellow because of Chinese royalty.

In the 1800s, the best graphite in the world came from China. The Americans wanted to give a tribute to the Chinese for the graphite used in their pencils. Yellow means royalty and respect in China, which is why the Americans manufactured their pencils in yellow. To this day, the default color for pencils is still yellow. 

A depressing night in the major leagues and a semi-depressing night in the minor leagues. Let’s check in on the kids:

Indianapolis 9, Lehigh Valley 0

Good lord, what a pitiful showing by the offense. A double by Paul McIntosh, a single by Liover Peguero and that’s it. Nothing more, nothing less. Alan Rangel must have been depressed at being sent back to the minor leagues as he let up seven runs in 4+ innings of work, but it didn’t matter much since no one wanted to hit the ball anyway.

Reading 6, Harrisburg 5

This was a game of extremes, one on the good end and another on the bad. First, the good. Bryan Rincon continued his resurgence this season, hitting two more home runs to give him 14 on the season.

That’s the sound of his stock rising on both the trade market and within the team’s own player development system. Caleb Ricketts also hit a home run to help the offense, one that needed each run it could get.

Now, for the bad. Gage Wood had a good first three innings in his outing on the evening, cruising through the lineup and striking out five. In the fourth, he started getting hit a bit, allowing two doubles and a single to see two runs cross the plate. In the fifth, it came apart for him. He gave up a home run, a walk, a single, hit a batter, got an out via a sacrifice fly then struck out a batter before being replaced. Not his best start for Reading.

Jersey Shore 7, Brooklyn 3

Wait, what’s that? A victory for the BlueClaws? Daunte Stuart was the hero on offense, having a three hit night that included a home run to pace the team. Wuilfredo Antunez had two RBI, combining with Antunez to be two of six BlueClaws hitters with an RBI on the night. On the bump, Tanner Gresham had a solid start, going five innings and giving up three runs on three hits, striking out six and walking only one. Considering how rough their season has been, this is a great night for the BlueClaws.

Clearwater 8, Daytona 7

At this point in my life, I am much too invested in the success of Juan Villavicencio. I watched some video of the young man last night once everyone was away asleep for the night and the recap was written.

That is a quick bat that is hitting the ball really hard. It’s a little harder to find fielding videos of him, but by all accounts, he’s a shortstop that can stick at the position. He’s young and needs to prove it at higher levels, but this is someone to get excited about.

On the evening for Clearwater, he hit another home run (as seen above), joining Jonathan Hogart (3-3, 2 2B) and TJayy Walton (2-4, 2B, 3 RBI) as the multi hit gatherers on the evening to lead the offense. On the pitching side, there wasn’t much to write home about as Zuher Yousuf allowed four runs in four innings, striking out five. Marty Gair had a lockdown ninth inning, striking out two to get the save.

The Mariners suck. Not much else to say right now. They have a chance to suck just a little bit less and salvage a modicum of dignity against the Rangers this morning at 11:35 am PST.

Happy Sunday everybody!

In Mariners news…

• Jerry Dipoto spoke about the decision to fire assistant hitting coach Bobby Magallanes, a move that has, at least so far, not had the desired effect.

Around the league…

• The New York Mets are now going into the deadline without their best player as Juan Soto was placed on the 10-day IL yesterday with a left calf strain. Soto missed three weeks earlier this season with a calf strain in his other leg, and interim manager Andy Green described this strain as significantly worse.
• The Red Sox and Nationals have turned on the stove!

• The Boston Red Sox are hoping to have a much different trade deadline than last season, which ended up being extremely underwhelming, although it almost went much differently. It was reported on Friday that a blockbuster prospect package nearly went to Minnesota for Joe Ryan before the Twins backed out.
• Speaking of Joe Ryan, he is experiencing some arm fatigue and the Twins rescheduled his next start to Tuesday against the Royals to give him so extra rest.
• The Houston Astros continued their brutal injury riddled season yesterday by placing Spencer Arrighetti on the 15-day IL.
• J.J. Cooper at Baseball America took a very deep dive into the results of the last ten years of trade deadline trades. ($)
• When I say, “I got that dawg in me,” the Pawtucket Hot Wiener is what I mean.

• The A’s signed former Cy Young award winner Dallas Keuchel to a minor league deal yesterday, a move that did not even get a shrug from me.

Nick’s pick…

• Metalhead Software walked onto the sports video game stage when they introduced my favorite sports video game franchise of all-time, Super Mega Baseball, all the way back in 2014. With every subsequent installment the games got better and better and added features that have led to a thriving competitive scene that still runs in SMB 4 to this day. I personally have been running a completely agonizing and asinine “0 Stats franchise” that rapidly whittles away at my sanity every time I play a game, and yet I continue to love it, even when I scream obscenities at it and myself. Samuel Horti at Remap went down memory road earlier this week to reminisce on what the games were at their best, and why we’ll sadly never get another one.