Category: Baseball

There are all kinds of 2026 baseball season predictions out and about, from those determined by complex computer algorithms, or made by the bookies whose money is on the line, or tossed out by fans of one team or another.

However, the one you are about to read has much more expertise applied than any of those others. Not only does it go point-by-point, but, in keeping with what math teachers always want we show our work.

Trust me on this.

THE PREMISE
We will begin where we left off in 2025, with 60 wins. Depending on how you wish to look at it, that was either a wonderful 19 more victories than in 2024, or a not-so-hot one victory fewer than the dismal 2023 season. Either way, it’s the point from which we apply precise mathematical analysis, sector by sector.

AS THINGS STAND

Catchers
Catching was obviously a bright spot last season, with Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero and Korey Lee combining for 3.4 bWAR. There’s no particular reason their hitting will be much different this year, Quero’s hot spring and Teel’s cold one and hamstring strain notwithstanding. They are all young guys, thrust up to the majors too quickly on the defensive side, so there’s room for improvement there.

Add one win for improved D. Now we’re at 61 wins.

Infield
Here’s where there’s a big position jump upward, with the addition of Munetaka Murakami at first. The professional prognosticators aren’t as crazy about the Japanese batting champion as you might think, hovering around the 2.0 WAR mark. But we’re fans, so we’ll say he earns a three-spot.

Second and third are apt to be the same meh mish-mash as 2025, so call that even. But Colson Montgomery will be around the whole season, barring injury, and he rated 3.3 bWAR in just 71 games last year. From a fan perspective, it’s tempting to think pitchers will learn nothing about him and double that, but the computers are apt to be more realistic and they all see him not even matching the 3.3. Using brilliant math analysis (and a tad bit of fandom), we split the difference and give him one added win.

That’s old-fashioned golf pants (plus-fours, get it?), so we’re at 65 wins.

Outfieldand DH
Aye, here’s the rub.

Andrew Benintendi will be a year older and quite possibly even worse, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he holds his own.

In center, Luis Robert Jr. is gone. He may have had two bad years in 2024 and 2025, but he was still better than whatever ends up taking his place. Minus one win.

In right, the brilliant minds of White Soxdom decided not to keep Mike Tauchman (1.9 bWAR), replacing him with Austin Hays (0.8 in about the same playing time). The algorithms don’t like Hays any better for 2026. Minus another one.

As for DH — same bunch as last year.

We now stand at 63 wins.

Pitching
The relief pitching should have a major upgrade in Seranthony Domínguez, who is apparently destined to be the closer even though he seems to have bought completely into the myth of Magical Mystical Final Out Syndrome and has a career ninth-inning ERA a full run more than the seventh or eighth, and an absolutely massive difference last year of 2.00 in the seventh, 2.18 in the eighth, and 5.00 in the ninth. He also hasn’t had a bWAR better than 0.5 since 2022. But he has a nifty first name and the one-run-game record last year was abysmal, so we add two wins with him.

By far the best reliever last year was Mike Vasil (2.9 bWAR) and if he moves to the starting rotation or is lost for the season after his injury on March 14 that will be lost, but we can hope that doesn’t happen. Otherwise, bullpen types will go up or down as they are wont to do, so it’s a wash — except 2025’s second-best reliever, Steven Wilson (1.2 WAR) is gone, so we take away one win.

As for the rotation,, by far the best starter last year was Adrian Houser (3.0 WAR), who is gone, as is Martín Pérez (1.2 WAR, despite missing most of the season). Theoretically, the slack will be picked up by Anthony Kay, (who the Sox brain trust figures will be the 2026 version of 2024 Erick Fedde, back from Asia new and improved despite a dismal MLB career), and, well, Erick Fedde again. The pros see little benefit in either. Subtract two wins.

That’s a total of minus one, so we’re at 62 wins.

AS THINGS MAY BECOME
It’s highly likely that some combination of Braden Montgomery, Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, Tanner McDougal, Sam Antonacci and others will be brought up to the majors during the season. If Montgomery is anything close to what he’s shown so far, he’ll be a big improvement in the outfield. Even if the pitchers have rookie struggles, they’ll improve the starting rotation. Antonacci should be a step up from whatever infielder gets injured or doesn’t perform.

Here we go big and add three wins due to the prospects trickling up to the South Side.

However, on the flip side, if Kay, Fedde, Hays (or even Murakami?) are any good, they’ll be gone by the trade deadline, because they aren’t contracted long enough to be around when the White Sox are actually competitive: one year for Fedde and Hays (who is theoretically just holding a spot for Braden), two for the others. Subtract two wins (more if Murakami goes, but we have to hope that doesn’t happen).

Now we’re at 63 wins.

NON-PLAYERS
As Will Venable didn’t seem to have any of those “what the hell is he thinking” moments of his two predecessors and doesn’t have the morale-crushing stupidity of Pedro Grifol or arrogance of Tony La Russa, having a year of experience is bound to make him better. Add three wins.

Going the other way, the inexplicable decision to let pitching coach Ethan Katz go when he did such a fine job with so many young pitchers, converting two Rule 5 draft pickups and a waiver signing into good-to-excellent performers and keeping Fedde solid for the only stretch of his MLB career is going to hurt. Having a replacement who is just part of the pathetic KC-to-Chicago pipeline (the theory “we small-market teams have to stick together” in practice) makes matters worse — yes, Zach Bove joined the Royals in 2023 and their pitching improved during his tenure, but that had far less to do with coaching than with acquiring Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen. Subtract three wins.

We stay at 63 wins.

A LITTLE HELP FROM OTHERS
The attempt by some other members of the AL Central to bring the division back to its traditional position as the laughingstock of baseball is apt to be helpful. Particular thanks should go to the Guardians and Twins, who decided not to try any more.

It’s too bad you don’t get 76 games within your division these days, but you do still get 52. Last year the Sox were 18-34 within the division, a 56-win season pace that was even worse than reality. That’s not going to happen again.

Versus Detroit, the Sox went 5-8, so look for no improvement there unless the Tigers again tend to hold back their best pitchers to face better opponents. In fact, that record may end up a game worse. Minnesota will be giving the White Sox a good crack at fourth place in 2026, but the Sox went 8-5 against the Twins last year, so that may happen again.

Chicago went 3-10 against Kansas City, and an improvement of two games seems reasonable. And the 2-11 recorded versus the Guardians is bound to improve another three games.

That would take us to 67 wins, but the rest of the majors are bound to improve a little given the failure to do so by Cleveland and Minnesota, so subtract a win there.

WHICH MEANS …
The White Sox will end the 2026 season with a 66-96 record.

That’s smack dab in the middle of what the bookies say. They must use my system.

It’s Sunday once more, and you know what that means — it’s time for our weekly social media roundup! This week has been a whirlwind of baseball, filled with spring training games and, of course, the World Baseball Classic. How have the Yankees been spending their time off the diamond? Let’s find out!

The WBC Continues

As expected, the World Baseball Classic has remained the biggest news in the baseball world, and thus has dominated social media.

While it’s not Yankees-related, I also want to highlight Ondřej Satoria, “the Electrician,” who struck out Shohei Ohtani in the 2023 World Baseball Classic and who ended his baseball career this week with 4.2 shutout innings against Samurai Japan in Czechia’s final game of the WBC.

College Ball with CC

Former Yankees Hall of Fame pitcher CC Sabathia spent last weekend watching his son play ball at the University of Houston; also with him were Ken Griffey Jr. and former Yankees bullpen coach Mike Harkey.

A-Rod’s Budget Team

Alex Rodriguez took to Instagram to show how he would build a Major League Baseball team on a budget. While I won’t get into his full analysis here, the fact that he has Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger on the team should be an encouraging sign for Yankees fans (he also has Aaron Judge, of course, but that’s kind of a no-brainer, and in fact the entire linchpin of the team he constructed).

Celebrating Service

Both the Yankees as an organization and Derek Jeter’s Turn 2 Foundation celebrated major milestones this week, with the former receiving the 2025 Allan H. Selig Award from Major League Baseball, and the latter turned 30.

More Pics from Media Day

We have even more photos that were probably taken at media day.

Questions of the Day

This busy week saw the Yankees social media team post a number of Questions of the Day. We got some restaurant recommendations, learned who everyone’s favorite princess was (I am personally annoyed at all those who said Elsa, Frozen is sooo overrated, and quite a few guys smoothly named their wives/daughters), and found out what obscure topics the players can give presentations on.

For the most part, I have liked what I have seen from the Nats during Spring Training. The pitching has been good and the vibes seem to be high. However, the Nationals offense has left a lot to be desired this spring, especially from the big guns. 

While the games do not count, it would be nice to see some of the Nats star hitters heat up as we get closer to Opening Day. It has been a pretty brutal spring for guys like CJ Abrams, James Wood and Dylan Crews. All three of them are below the Mendoza line for the spring, and they are not alone. The Nats are hitting just .192 as a team this spring. 

The Nats .606 spring OPS is the worst in the league, which is obviously not what you would like to see. So far, the pitching staff has picked up the slack, but I want to see the offense explode one of these games. The offense was supposed to be the best part of the team heading into spring, but it has not looked that way so far.

Of course, the script could totally flip by the time the real season starts, but I think you can take something from this. I would not be surprised if the pitching staff sees quick improvement this season, while the hitting is more of a work in progress. It is easier to teach a new pitch or alter a pitcher’s usage than it is to tweak a hitter’s mechanics.

We are seeing some of those growing pains this spring. Matt Borgschulte has a different philosophy to Darnell Coles, and that might come with an adjustment period for some hitters. It would not be surprising if the Nats struck out more than they did last year. Hopefully that can come with more power and patience though.

One player I would love to see get going is James Wood. As we all know, he was not the same hitter after the All-Star break. The strikeout rate exploded and his confidence dropped. So far this spring, Wood has looked like the second half version of himself. We have not even seen as much hard contact as you would expect from him.

I am no hitting guru, but when I compare his swing from early last year to this year, I think his leg kick has gotten a bit out of control. Last Spring Training, he had a medium sized leg kick and was able to control his long levers. Right now when I watch him, it seems like he is a bit out of control due to that leg kick getting higher. Here is a video of what his swing looked like last spring.

While CJ Abrams has not been very productive this spring, I am not very worried about him. His at bats look good, and he is clearly working on being patient. Abrams is also getting a bit unlucky. He crushed a ball over 400 feet the other day, but it was right at the fence in the deepest part of the park. I would not be surprised if he quickly flips the switch in the regular season. He has been a fast starter these past couple years.

Dylan Crews has been another hitter that has struggled, but he has shown more signs of life lately. In his last game against the Mets, he hit the ball hard in all three of his at bats. He had one hit, a sac fly and a hard hit out. Blake Butera was very happy about that, saying Crews’ swings were “the biggest positive of the night in my mind”. 

Getting Dylan Crews going would be a huge plus for the Nats. He has yet to hit the heights expected of him when he was taken second overall in 2023. However, when you watch him on the right night, you can see his talent. It is all about consistency and finding a swing that works for him.

So how worried am I about the Nats offense? On a scale of 1-10, I am at about a 4 right now. James Wood not looking like himself again after his second half is a bit disappointing. It also really feels like there will be growing pains for this offense. The one bright spot has been Brady House, who has been destroying baseballs. Hopefully he can keep that up and some of the quieter Nats hitters can get going.

Watch: Spring Training Live Q&A with Tom McCarthy, Ben Davis and Jim Salisbury originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

NBC Sports Philadelphia is gearing up for the regular season with a Phillies Spring Training Live Q&A!

Join Tom McCarthy, Ben Davis and Jim Salisbury after Sunday’s Phillies-Braves game at BayCare Ballpark in Clearwater, Florida.

You can also tune in and ask your questions virtually.

Believe it or not, but today is the final Sunday for the Dodgers in Arizona this spring training. By this time next week, they’ll be back in Southern California for the exhibition Freeway Series against the Angels. Here’s a look at the schedule for the week ahead, which includes Cactus League action, one more split-squad day, the final three games of the World Baseball Classic, and prospects in the spring breakout game.

With Korea, Japan, and Puerto Rico eliminated Friday and Saturday, the Dodgers will get Hyeseong Kim, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Edwin Díaz back in camp at some point this week.

Sunday, March 15

Dodgers vs. Rangers, 1:05 p.m. (SportsNet LA, AM 570)
Dodgers at Cubs, 1:05 p.m. (Marquee Sports Network)
WBC: United States vs. Dominican Republic, 5 p.m. (FS1)

Monday, March 16

Dodgers vs. Brewers, 1:05 p.m. (SportsNet LA, AM 570)
WBC: Venezuela vs. Italy, 5 p.m. (FS1)

Tuesday, March 17

Dodgers at Royals, 6:05 p.m. (SportsNet LA)
WBC championship game, 5 p.m. (Fox)

Wednesday, March 18

Dodgers vs. Giants, 1:05 p.m. (SportsNet LA, AM 570)

Thursday, March 19

Final camp off day

Friday, March 20

Dodgers vs. Padres, 6:05 p.m. (SportsNet LA, AM 570)

Saturday, March 21

Dodgers vs. A’s, 12:05 p.m. (SportsNet LA)
Spring breakout game: Dodgers prospects vs. White Sox prospects, 3:30 p.m. (MLB Network, Amazon)

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The World Baseball Classic continues to be the most fun you can have with March baseball. Move over March Madness. On Saturday night, an absolute classic unfolded as Team Venezuela took on Team Japan in a back and forth slugfest that saw the Venezuelans advance to the semifinals with a wild 8-5 victory. Detroit Tigers’ Gleyber Torres, and in particular lefty Enmanuel de Jesus, played big roles in the victory. It was a bit of a Tigers’ fest all around as even Miguel Cabrera had a long cameo in a key moment.

The Tigers contingent will continue to be center stage as Keider Montero is now slated to start in the semifinals against Team Italy on Monday. The winner will advance to the finals against the winner of tonight’s 8:00 p.m ET matchup between Team USA and Team Dominican Republic.

Last night’s game started off with a bang and it didn’t slow down until Team Venezuela’s bullpen slammed the door on Samurai Japan from the middle inning onward. Facing World Series hero and Dodgers’ ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Ronald Acuña Jr. led off the game with a solo shot to right center field on a 1-0 heater right down the pipe.

In the bottom of the first, Shohei Ohtani struck right back with a leadoff solo shot on a Ranger Suarez curveball down and in to make it 1-1. It was not a good night for Ranger Suarez. It’s way too early for this kind of statement, but after spending a fair amount of time trying to decide whether the Tigers would be better off signing Suarez or Framber Valdez, but expecting neither, so far I think we’re in a good place. The bottom of the first ended with Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki getting banged up a bit trying to steal second with two outs. Salvador Perez cut him down and the Venezuelans got right back to work.

Ezequiel Tovar, who had a big night all around, opened the second inning with a drive off the wall in center field, and our own Gleyber Torres followed suit. Yamamoto hung a 2-2 splitter up on the inner edge of the plate, and Torres smoked it to left, missing a home run by inches and cruising into second with an RBI double that made it 2-1 Venezuela.

Torres was stranded on base, and Ranger Suarez settled down for a quick 1-2-3 inning in the bottom of the second. Yoshinobu did likewise in the top of the third, giving up a leadoff double to Maikel Garcia of the Royals, but settling things down by stranding him. Suarez then imploded a bit in the bottom of the third, giving up an RBI double to Teruakui Sato, and then a three-run shot to Shota Morashita that threatened to blow the game open.

Suarez was knocked out of the game a batter later, but Venezuela got out of the inning without further damage. Still it was 5-2 Japan with Yamamoto on the mound. Things looked a little bleak.

In the bottom of the fourth, Enmanuel de Jesus took over, and this is where the game’s momentum began to shift. The left-handed has been a minor revelation this spring, and he was outstanding in this one and truly one of the standout heroes for Venezuela.

As he has all spring, De Jesus had his deep pitch mix under control and showed off a lot of deception. Team Japan was guessing wildly as De Jesus painted the edges with fourseamers and sinkers, and then bent cutters and changeups in and out of the zone with good command while pitching in the most pressure packed environment he’s faced as a professional.

He got the first out of the fourth, but gave up a single and a walk before bouncing back to strike out Ohtani and Sato both swinging at ghosts as his cutter sailed down and away from the two left-handed hitters.

In the top of the fifth, Miguel Cabrera briefly got involved. After Jackson Chourio drew a leadoff walk, Acuña was called on out a really tough checked swing call by home plate umpire Dan Iasogna. Acuña was livid, and it was the Tigers’ great and future Hall of Famer Cabrera, Venezuela’s hitting coach, was seen hollering at Acuña to let him do the yelling and to calm down before he got tossed out of the game. Iasogna did a nice job there by taking it without immediately tossing the Braves’ star in such a key game.

Fortunately for Venezuela, they had other powerful options. A two-run homer from Maikel Garcia cashed in Chourio anyway, cutting Japan’s lead to 5-4, and de Jesus held it in the bottom of the inning, striking out Morashita and getting a routine grounder and a pop-up to send this to the sixth inning.

Wilyer Abreu seized control for Venezuela with Yamamoto gone, cracking a three-run shot after singles from Tovar and Gleyber Torres to make it 7-5. De Jesus got the dangerous Munetaka Murakami, who we’ll see a lot of with the White Sox, on a flyout to start the bottom of the sixth before giving way to José Butto.

De Jesus finished with 2.1 IP, 0 R, H, BB, 3 K for the night. Pretty darn good against a dangerous lineup.

Team Venezuela’s bullpen followed de Jesus’ example and shut the door on Japan the rest of the way. Angel Zerpa, Andrés Machado, and Daniel Palencia shut the door with a solid inning of work each. Tovar continued his huge game with an eighth inning double, and then scored on a ill-fated pickoff attempt that was thrown away by Atsuki Taneichi. That was the ballgame.

These guys were pretty hype.

Now, Keider Montero will take Venezuela’s hopes into his hands in the biggest start of his career. Of course, Montero is familiar with some pressure. He does have 8 1/3 scoreless innings over the last two postseasons with the Tigers, so he’s been in these situations before. However, doing the pre-game media as the starting pitcher in an elimination game for your country is a different animal. Hopefully Keider handles the pressure and does well in all respects. This could be a huge confidence builder for him, or a tough moment that stings a while.

It will be very interesting to see how he does, just as his role with the Tigers this season remains an interesting question. Going from starting a semifinal game for your home country, to getting sent out to Toledo to start the year, is going to be some medicine for a letdown if that’s how it goes. No doubt his chances will come anyway if he’s pitching well.

The Detroit Tigers have had really longstanding ties to Venezuela. Apart from Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Magglio Ordonez, one of the Tigers top prospects, Josue Briceño is Venezuelan, as well as Torres, Montero, and now de Jesus. So it’s great to see Team Venezuela’s underdog run.

When looking back at the 2025 postseason, one would be forgiven for forgetting that the Cincinnati Reds were involved. Even despite the inherent dangers of a short-term series, the Reds weren’t able to give a proper contest to the Dodgers, falling in two straight games during Terry Francona’s first year in charge. It might have been their first playoff appearance in five years, but they haven’t even won a playoff game since 2012, nor a playoff series since 1995 — when the NL Central champion Brewers were still playing in the American League.

All the skepticism surrounding the Reds felt justified given that they were every bit of their 83-79 record. It was a type of campaign that leads a team to a playoff appearance only in very specific circumstances — the New York Mets’ late-season collapse, in this particular case. It wasn’t as though they caught them in a race, it was more that they kept walking at an adequate pace while the Mets took a wayward step into a ditch.

2025 record: 83-79 (3rd, NL Central)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 77-85 (4th, NL Central)

Any projection about the 2026 Reds starts with the unfortunate acknowledgment of ace Hunter Greene’s injury status heading into the year. The former No. 2 overall pick became the latest in a series of hard-throwing starters to be sidelined for a significant period. He’s now on the 60-day IL, out until at least July due to arthroscopic surgery on his elbow. Greene had already missed significant time last season, barely cracking the 100 innings mark in what was otherwise a magnificent campaign. Once again, the Reds will have to make do without him for a significant portion of their season.

Typically, good Reds team score runs, doing their best to benefit from playing half their games at Great American Ballpark, hitters’ favorite venue this side of Coors Field. Well, for the 2025 Reds—and this ties into some of the added concerns from Greene’s absence, it was all about the pitching.

Despite Greene’s time missed, Cincinnati managed a team ERA+ of 119, largely thanks to a career year from Andrew Abbott. The left-hander defied all odds to post a 2.39 ERA at home without the benefit of overwhelming stuff, boasting a strikeout rate below league average, all of which led to his first All-Star nod and a top-10 Cy Young finish. The de facto ace of this staff without a healthy Greene, Abbott may take a step back if we’re to read into his peripherals. It’s hard to see how he sustains a sub-3.00 ERA, pitching half his games in Cincinnati. On the positive side of things, Chase Burns (like Greene, a former No. 2 overall pick) showed outstanding stuff in his short period in the bigs and is probably one of the top young players to watch across baseball in 2026. He is currently dealing with a “range of motion issue” that they’re hoping isn’t too serious.

All in all, between Abbott, Burns, and Nick Lodolo, the Reds have an intriguing foundation even without Greene available, but it can’t quite be expected to carry the load of what could be a fringe contender if all things break right. Moving over to the bullpen, Emilio Pagán will be expected to live up to his resurgent 2025 campaign, set up primarily by Tony Santillan; the two combined to be one of the better late-inning duos in the National League last season. Trusting the pair, Cincinnati didn’t make any high-profile acquisitions to bolster its bullpen. Pierce Johnson and Caleb Ferguson are depth acquisitions to supplement Pagán, who was brought back on a two-year deal worth $20 million, showcasing a bit of the skepticism the market had about Pagán retaining that 2025 form.

Offensively, despite whiffing on their pursuit of Kyle Schwarber, Cincy has a few intriguing sluggers to keep an eye on ahead of 2026. After lighting up in the minors, Sal Stewart, a first-round pick in 2022, got a small opportunity in the bigs and answered the call with five homers in just 18 games. The youngster will get a free run to try and lock down a first base role that hasn’t been totally spoken for since the better days of Joey Votto. Spencer Steer is a fine player, but his flexibility is best utilized playing in other positions rather than as the primary first baseman. Carrying on the theme of sluggers, 49-homer bat Eugenio Suárez returns home, in a manner of speaking, on a one-year, $15-million contract that speaks for itself on why the Reds were more than happy to accommodate him as their primary DH. The man with 101 career bombs and a .504 SLG in Great American Ballpark should see his power play better there than it did in Seattle in the second half of 2025.

We went an entire paragraph on the club’s offense without discussing the inhuman Elly De La Cruz, a player whose God-given talent matches up with anybody in the game. His highlight reel will be phenomenal, his Statcast page equally so, but the challenge is to take not just one but several steps forward. The .777 OPS De La Cruz put up last year is not fitting for a player of his skill set; if this is to become a very good offense, it needs De La Cruz producing as a perennial MVP, which he very well could do. The best-case for the Reds is that the quad injury that Elly played through really affected his final 2025 numbers, and now recovered, he can get back to peak form.

De La Cruz, however, isn’t the only exciting Reds youngster who needs to do more in 2026. Matt McLain followed up an outstanding rookie campaign with an injury-riddled sophomore season. If he can regain that form we saw in 2024, the Reds could have one of the deadliest middle-infield partnerships in baseball, but that’s a big if.

As you’d expect, the Reds have the talent to compete for a Wild Card, but there are a lot of ifs and maybes and not very many certainties surrounding this team. They’ll be fun to watch, and the NL Central isn’t the gauntlet some other divisions are, but one is justified in being skeptical about this team’s chances to make a lot of noise in 2026.

More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.

I think the best line I’ve seen from Italian sports fans is their disbelief that Italy has a better national baseball team than a calcio (soccer) team.

Italy 8, Puerto Rico 6

Italy scored four runs in the first inning to upset Puerto Rico and advance to the semifinals of the World Baseball Classic for the first time.

Things didn’t look good for Italy early as the first batter of the game for Puerto Rico, former Cub Willi Castro, hit a solo home run in the top of the first inning. [VIDEO]

But Angels pitcher Sam Aldegheri retired the next three batters in order. Meanwhile, Italy jumped all over Puerto Rico starter Seth Lugo for four runs in the bottom of the first inning.

After two walks, Vinnie Pasquantino tied the game 1-1 with this RBI single. [VIDEO]

Next up, Mariners outfielder Dominic Canzone singled to put Italy up 2-1. Then Jac Caglianone singled home another run to make it 3-1. [VIDEO].

Jovani Morán then replaced Lugo, but he walked the first batter he faced. Then J.J. D’Orazio hit a sacrifice fly and it was 4-1 Italy.

Puerto Rico got a run back in the top of the second when Aldegheri walked two batters and hit a batter to load the bases. At that point, Italy manager Francisco Cervelli pulled Aldegheri for Alek Jacob, but Jakob hit the first batter he faced to make it 4-2 Italy.

But Jacob then struck out Castro and got a ground out by Darell Hernaiz to end the threat.

Italy expanded the lead to 8-2 with a four-run fourth inning. First, Brewers 2025 first-round pick Andrew Fischer doubled home two off Luis Quiñones. [VIDEO]

As you can see, there was clear fan interference on that play, so the umpires correctly called it a double.

J.J. D’Orazio, who plays in the Diamondbacks system, drove in two more with back-to-back doubles. [VIDEO]

After that, it was up to the Italian bullpen to hold the six-run lead. They almost blew it. Guardians minor leaguer Dylan DeLucia was strong for Italy, pitching four shutout innings against heavily-favored Puerto Rico. Twins reliever Dan Altavilla pitched around an error in the seventh. But Matt Festa came on to pitch the top of the eight and and he failed to retire a batter, loading the bases on a single, a walk and another single. Festa gave way to Pirates reliever Joe La Sorsa. La Sorsa gave up a run on an groundout to first, which was a trade Italy would make any day in that situation. But with the score now 8-3, La Sorsa’s control abandoned him. He hit a batter and then uncorked a wild pitch that scored a run and made it 8-4 Italy.

Christian Vázquez then made it 8-6 with a two-run single. [VIDEO]

Cervelli went to his closer Greg Weissert at this point in the eighth inning. Weissert struck out Castro for the second out, gave up a single to Darell Hernaiz and then got Nolan Arenado to ground out to end the inning with no further damage.

Weissert stayed in the game to pitch the top of the ninth and immediately gave up a single to Athletic Carlos Cortes to lead off the inning. But Weissert retired the next three batters to end the game and send Italy to the semifinals for the first time.

Venezuela 8, Japan 5

Three-time WBC champion Japan will not make it to the semifinals because Venezuela upset Japan 8-5.

Venezuela got off to an early lead when the first hitter of the game, Ronald Acuña Jr., homered off of Japan starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto. [VIDEO]

Japan got that run back promptly in the bottom of the first when Shohei Ohtani homered off of Venezuela starter Ranger Suárez. [VIDEO]

Venezuela broke out to a 2-1 lead in the top of the second when Ezequiel Tovar doubled off Yamamoto to lead off the inning and then Gleyber Torres doubled him home. [VIDEO]

Japan got to Suárez in the third inning. First, Teruaki Sato tied the game 2-2 with this double. [VIDEO]

The next batter, Shota Morishita, hit a three-run home run to make it 5-2 Japan. [VIDEO]

Morishita was in the game as a replacement for Seiya Suzuki, who injured his knee trying (and failing) to steal second base.

Let’s all hope Suzuki isn’t seriously hurt. This doesn’t sound too bad.

Yamamoto allowed two runs on four hits over four innings. He struck out five. [VIDEO]

Japan’s bullpen wasn’t of the same quality. In the fifth inning, Venezuela cut the Japan lead to 5-4 with this Maikel Garcia home run off of Chihiro Sumida [VIDEO]

In the sixth, Venezuela took the lead for good with this upper-deck. three-run home run by Wilyer Abreu, [VIDEO] which made it 7-5 Venezuela.

Venezuela made it 8-5 when Ezequiel Tovar scored on this throwing error by Atsuki Taneichi. [VIDEO]

Japan got a threat going in the bottom of the eighth inning with two two-out singles, but former Nationals pitcher Andrés Machado got a ground out to end the last threat. [VIDEO]

Cubs closer Daniel Palencia came on in the ninth to seal up the win for Venezuela and he did just that, striking out Sosuke Genda and Kensuke Kondoh before getting Ohtani to pop out and send Venezuela to the semifinals. [VIDEO]

As noted in that video, it is the first time Venezuela has made the semifinals of the WBC since 2009. It’s the first time ever that Japan has been eliminated before the semifinals.

Italy will play Venezuela in the semifinals at 7 p.m. CT on Monday. On Sunday at 7 p.m. CT, Team USA takes on the Dominican Republic. Both games are on FS1. A game thread for tonight’s game will post here at 6 p.m. CT.

After yesterday’s quarterfinals, which featured a blowout and something much closer but not exactly thrilling, the WBC delivered drama in spades on Saturday.

Italy 8, Puerto Rico 6. In something that happened three times on Saturday, Willi Castro connected for a leadoff homer off Sam Aldegheri on the fourth pitch of the game. That lead didn’t last long, however, as Seth Lugo struggled on the mound from the get-go. He walked two of the first three Italian batters, and then a couple of soft singles through the infield turned things around into a 2-1 game. A harder single by Jac Caglianone made it 3-1, and Italy then collected another walk and a sac fly against new hurler Jovani Moran.

Aldegheri walked the bases loaded in the second and was replaced by Alek Jacob, who promptly plunked Puerto Rico captain Martin Maldonado to make it a two-run game, but then got out of it with a strikeout and a groundout. Moran and Eduardo Rivera escaped trouble of their own in the bottom of the inning, with Rivera striking out Caglianone with the bases loaded. Rivera left after consecutive two-out walks in the fourth, and then Italy reeled off an unholy rally against Luis Quinones, with a walk, a ground-rule-double-because-a-fan-reached-over-the-railing-to-catch-it, and then a more traditional ground rule double blooped far down the right-field line. Italy led 8-2 after all those walks and doubles.

Then things got quiet, with Puerto Rico squandering a good chance to get into it against Dan Altavilla in the seventh by wasting a two out, none on situation. Instead, they got into it the next frame against Matt Festa, with single-walk-walk to start the frame. That chased Festa and brought in Joe La Sorsa, but an RBI groundout, a hit batter, and a wild pitch made it 8-4, and then Christian Vazquez hit it hard through the infield to pull it back within two runs. So, Team Italy brought in presumptive closer Greg Weissert, who restored order, striking out Castro and later getting Nolan Arenado to softly ground out. After Edwin Diaz had an uncharacteristically wonky ninth (hit by pitch and walk) but nonetheless kept it to within two, it was Puerto Rico’s last chance, with Weissert still pitching.

Carlos Cortes made things more interesting with a leadoff single. Weissert then got a strikeout and Heliot Ramos hit a routine flyout, meaning it all rested on the shoulders of Eddie Rosario. After falling behind 2-0, Weissert missed with a fastball that ended up right down the middle… but Rosario didn’t really do anything with it, flying out to left to end the game. A bit more oomph and maybe Puerto Rico survives, but no dice. Italy moves on to the semis.

Venezuela 8, Japan 5. This is probably the kind of game the WBC organizers were envisioning when they dreamed up this tournament. What a barnburner.

Ronald Acuña Jr. started things off in electrifying fashion by raking an opposite-field leadoff homer against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But, a few pitches into the bottom of the first, Shohei Ohtani returned the favor off Ranger Suarez. Later in the inning, Seiya Suzuki was thrown out trying to steal second and had to leave the game due to injury.

Ezequiel Tovar, who apparently owns Yamamoto for some reason, led off the second with a double, and then Venezuela pulled ahead when Gleyber Torres barely missed a homer and ended up doubling Tovar home. The inning ended on a didn’t-mean-to-swing from Acuña that dribbled out to the second baseman. Suarez struck out two in the bottom of the second, and Venezuela squandered a leadoff double in the third. Suarez then wobbled in the bottom of the third, with a leadoff walk and an intentional walk to Ohtani, which then all came to roost when Teruaki Soto doubled down the right-field line to tie the game, and Suzuki’s replacement, Shota Morishita, yanked a three-run go-ahead homer into the left-field corner. It probably isn’t really any consolation for Suarez that the pitches both Soto and Morishita hit were basically perfect pitcher’s pitches that they nonetheless creamed.

The teams traded zeroes in the fourth, but Venezuela jumped on Chihiro Sumida after he replaced Yamamoto to start the fifth, with Jackson Chourio drawing a leadoff walk and Maikel Garcia depositing a baseball deep into the left field stands to make it a one-run game. Meanwhile, Enmanuel de Jesus was restoring order for Venezuela on the mound.

The big blow for Venezuela came against Hiromi Itoh in the sixth. Tovar dunked one for a leadoff single, and Torres rolled one through the infield. Up came Wilyer Abreu, Itoh tried to sneak a 91 mph fastball by him at the top of zone, and nope. Kablamo. Abreu didn’t miss it and instead crushed a second-deck shot over 400 feet for a three-run go-ahead dinger. (Later in this inning, Acuña got absolutely screwed on a not-even-that borderline strike three call.)

At this point, the game was basically over, as de Jesus, Jose Butto, Andres Machado, and Daniel Palencia, along with the Venezuelan gloves, stymied Japan the rest of the way. Those five games combined for an 8/1 K/BB ratio in six innings, and after Venezuela took the lead on Abreu’s homer, Japan’s only baserunners came on a couple of two-out singles in the eighth against Machado — but Shugo Maki grounded out. On the flip side, Venezuela added an eighth run when Tovar doubled, stole third, and scored on a poor throw down. Daniel Palencia made short work of Japan in the end, blowing away Sosuke Genda for the first out, clipping an edge against Kensuke Kondoh for the second, and then getting Ohtani to pop out on a down-the-middle fastball to end the game, eliminate Japan, and send Venezuela to an Olive Garden date on Monday night.

Acuña went 1-for-5 with three strikeouts and the leadoff homer. In one of his strikeouts, he just got beat on a high fastball after getting five pitches in a row below the zone. Then, there was that horrible 0-2 call, and he was carved up by Yusei Kikuchi in the ninth without seeing a fastball. Ah well, I’m sure he doesn’t mind given the exciting game and victory for his team — plus, you can see him hopping over the railing and jumping around repeatedly as his teammates walloped the ball. Fun stuff.

The U.S.-D.R. heavyweight match is on tap for Sunday night.

Good morning, foLLks, and happy Sunday!

The M’s lost by a score of 6-2 to the Angels yesterday as Cactus League play drags on, but we did get a fun sequence of Cole Young knocking in Colt Emerson for Seattle’s first run. It’s definitely not tough to imagine that happening in big league games that count soon!

What’s a theme song from a TV show or cartoon that has a tendency to get stuck in your head? My wife and I thoroughly enjoyed the new season of Ted – itself having an earworm of an opening theme – but thanks to a scene in one of the later episodes, I have not been able to shake the theme of Adventures of the Gummi Bears the past few days despite that show being well before my time. Sound off in the comments!

In Mariners news:

• Randy Arozarena is back in Mariners camp following an eventful week at the World Baseball Classic, and issued a statement through the team addressing the situation between him and Cal Raleigh.
• Maura McGurk at our sister Red Sox site Over the Monster profiled the M’s as one of Boston’s playoff rivals.

In World Baseball Classic news:

• Italy continued its magical Classic run. Fresh off an upset victory over the US in pool play, they jumped out to an early 8-2 lead and held on after Puerto Rico hung a four-spot in the eighth inning to win 8-6.
• Venezuela toppled the defending champion Japan 8-5 in a wild back-and-forth affair, with Wilyer Abreu’s three-run blast in the sixth inning the deciding blow.

Around the league:

• Ideally, you get through spring training without anyone getting hurt. That may not be the case for the Angels, as shortstop Zach Neto left yesterday’s contest after injuring his hand on a head-first slide. While he will undergo further testing, it’s not the first time he’s injured himself sliding head-first.
• Breaths are being held in the South Side, as well, with White Sox righty Mike Vasil voluntarily exiting his outing against the Dodgers after reporting elbow soreness. He will also undergo further tests.
• Jorge Castillo reports that righty Hiromi Itoh and third baseman/outfielder Teruaki Sato – both part of Team Japan – could enter the posting system this winter and make the jump from NPB to MLB.
• Longtime Rockies owner Dick Monfort, 71, says that the odds of his team winning the World Series in his lifetime are “excellent!”. Whatever you say, Dick!

In his first year as a full-time starter, Clay Holmes was sturdy, if unspectacular. After eight years of solely relieving (after his first season where he both started and relieved), Holmes made 31 starts in 2025 (plus two relief appearances) good for a 3.53 ERA. That line looks good in insolation, but watching Holmes pitch over the course of the year didn’t always feel like you were watching someone with a sub-4.00 ERA.

While the overall results may have been there, batter to batter, inning to inning, Holmes appeared to be pressing, often looking fatigued and frustrated. A lot of this can be placed at the feet of the transition from relief pitching to starting pitching. Midway through the season, Holmes had already blown past his innings total for any big league season, so some of the fatigue was earned.

But with a season under his belt, it’s becoming clear who Holmes the starter is. When he’s on, he’s inducing a lot of ground balls. His pitch mix hasn’t changed too much from his bullpen days, but he’s lost a little velocity (about three miles per hour on his sinker, approximately two miles per hour off of breaking/off-speed stuff) due to the extra pitches he’s throwing. Amazingly, his walk rate didn’t change too much, though he was never a reliever who didn’t put men on base.

So while the stuff is unlikely to change in his second year as a starter, there’s hope that the endurance may. Now fully stretched out for more than a calendar year, Holmes can hopefully put together a season that sees him go deeper into games. With a partially rebuilt bullpen and an actual swingman (hello, Tobias Myers!), the Mets have attempted to address some of the issues of the 2025 pitching staff, but ultimately, starting pitcher length is going to tell a lot of the story.

There was a stretch during the summer of over two months between Mets’ starters going six innings. After June 7, Holmes only pitched into the seventh inning once. Even the reliable bullpen arms were getting dinged up because of overuse. While newly acquired starter Freddy Peralta didn’t average much better than Holmes did (both averaging just over five innings per start), the big difference is that he only had one start (aside from a last start before the playoffs purposely shortened outing) where he didn’t go five innings. His ERA was also almost a full run better than Holmes’s.

With Peralta and Nolan McLean at the top of the rotation, (hopefully) healthy Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea, and a (hopefully) resurgent David Peterson, the Mets have lots of options for how their starting staff is going to look. But based on a combination of effectiveness and health, Holmes looks to slot into the third or fourth starter role. And with Christian Scott and Jonah Tong not far behind, Holmes’s ability to transition into the bullpen and his modest contract ($13 million this year with a $12 million player option for 2027), if his effectiveness dips also makes him an asset in the way that Manaea or Senga simply aren’t.

Good morning, folks…

Evan Grant has Three Observations from the Rangers’ 22-2 win over San Diego on Saturday.

The Rangers are confident in a Joc Pederson rebound despite his struggles this spring.

The Rangers are close to having everyone in their projected starting lineup available.

That includes Josh Smith, who appears to have won the second base job with a scorching spring.

The fifth starter spot is still up for grabs between Jacob Latz and Kumar Rocker.

The DMN’s Rangers prospect countdown continues with Seong-Jun Kim at #10.

David Laurila has his Sunday Notes column up at Fangraphs.

It feels like every year you need more and more subscriptions to watch the Red Sox. Rob Manfred supposedly wants to fix this in the future with nationalized broadcasting but for now, let’s see what’s on the docket for all those games in 2026.

You might remember last fall when the Red Sox and Tigers played on Apple TV and part of the broadcast was done on an iPhone. Well, that phone is now in the Hall of Fame.

The milestone broadcast at Boston’s Fenway Park — where the Red Sox clinched a postseason berth with a thrilling walk-off win over the Detroit Tigers — has since been recognized by the National Baseball Hall of Fame, which added one of the authenticated iPhone devices to its permanent collection in Cooperstown, New York. Read more on the Hall of Fame website.

By coincidence (or on purpose) the Tigers will be in town on April 17th for the Red Sox first, and currently only, Apple TV game of the year. The schedule Apple released is just for the first half of the season so there may be more to come after the All-Star Game. At least the Apple games look really, really good.

NBC/Peacock will be airing games on Sundays and the Red Sox are featured four times this season. NBC, to their credit (maybe?) has tried to make these big, exciting, matches. While that is definitely a win for the national audience, we miss out of Don and Jerry Dave and Lou.

Here are your 2026 Red Sox games that will be on NBC:

June 14 — 7 p.m. — Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox — NBC/Peacock

Apologies if I don’t remember the large Rangers/Red Sox rivalry, NBC. In 2007 Boston traded for Eric Gagne from the Rangers? Ian Kinsler played for both teams?

June 28 — 7 p.m. — N.Y. Yankees at Boston Red Sox — NBC/Peacock

Now we’re talking…a series against the Yankees! And a second look at Fenway Park. If they’re going to be on the national stage might as well let other fans see our ballpark and wonder why they can’t have a Green Monster.

August 2 — 7 p.m. — Boston Red Sox at L.A. Dodgers — NBC/Peacock

Nothing on the schedule in July but there are two broadcasts scheduled for August. The first of which is August 2nd against then Dodgers. Mookie. Ohtani. Freeman. Decoy. All the big names. This has a little interest in the timing because it’s the day before the trade deadline. Monday August 3rd will be an off day for the Red Sox but the teams that do play will start ay 6:40 PM ET or later – after the deadline.

What do you think? Do you like when the deadline occurs during a game and every move is a possible trade? Or is it better to schedule games, as much as possible, with around 20 hours of space between day games on Sunday and night games on Monday?

August 23 — 3 p.m. — San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox — NBC/Peacock

Boston closes out the NBC slate with the Rafael Devers Reunion. The new-look Giants are trying to compete in 2026 and by August 23rd we’ll have a pretty good idea of the fortunes of both Boston and San Francisco. Did the Dodgers collapse? Are Roman and Marcelo fueling a youth revolution?

The real sacrifice comes, as usual, from FOX and their game of the week. Here’s what we get from FOX:

April 11 — 7 p.m. — Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals — FOX

It starts off with the Bloom vs Breslow Battle! Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray head back to St. Louis. Maybe Richard Fitts makes a start?

June 6 – 3 p.m. – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees – FOX

Yankees, because Red Sox, Yankees, and FOX are just a thing that happens in MLB. Lots of good times. Lots of Joe Buck in the past.

July 11 – 4 p.m. – Boston Red Sox at New York Mets – FS1

Step right up and meet Grimace.

August 22 – 7 p.m. – San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox – FOX

A full national weekend of Devers clips. You’ll be tired by the end. Guaranteed.

September 26 – 7 p.m. – Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox – FOX

The Cubbies will be in town and everyone in the country might watch as Boston and Chicago battle out (hopefully) for postseason positioning in their respective divisions. If things go right, both teams will be setup up for October.

Then it’s on to, hopefully, more national games in October.

Nick Pivetta returned to the mound for the San Diego Padres after he missed time with what was described as arm fatigue. Pivetta completed three innings and threw 56 pitches, allowing two runs on two hits with two walks and four strikeouts to lead the Padres to an 8-5 win over the Cleveland Guardians at the Peoria Sports Complex in Peoria, Ariz. on Saturday. Miguel Andujar and Freddy Fermin both homered in the game with Andujar hitting a grand slam for his third home run of the spring. Fermin continued his hot spring finishing with two hits in the game including his home run. Xander Bogaerts made his first start since returning from the World Baseball Classic and he added two hits as well.

Marco Gonzales led a group of Padres into the contest with the Texas Rangers in Surprise, Ariz. as Saturday was a split squad day with a home game and road game taking place with start times differing by five minutes. Things did not go so well for Gonzales and the Padres who faced the Rangers and the day ended with San Diego losing to Texas, 22-2. The Padres allowed five runs through the first two innings and an abysmal 13 runs in the third inning, alone. Gonzales completed two innings and allowed 11 runs, 10 of which were earned on eight hits with six walks and one strikeout. As bad as that was, reliever Logan Gillaspie had a different struggle. He could not keep the ball in the yard, allowing five home runs. He finished 2.2 innings and allowed nine runs on 11 hits with three walks and one strikeout. The lone bright spot for San Diego in the game was a two-run home run by Jase Bowen in the top of the third inning.

Padres News:

• The Padres Reacts Survey on Gaslamp Ballasked readers which of the candidates they thought would win the final spot in the starting rotation. The overwhelming majority of respondents said they believe Walker Buehler will win the job.

• Jackson Merrill had a difficult sophomore season, but it had more to do with health than regression. Merrill fought through multiple ailments and missed significant time for various injuries sustained throughout the year. Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball believes a healthy Merrill could have a big season and help the Padres return to the playoffs in 2026.   

• AJ Cassavell of Padres.com says that with his performance against the Guardians on Saturday, Pivetta is back on track, and his arm fatigue issues appear to be behind him.

• With news about the possibility of Joe Musgrove missing time to start the season the Padres may have to fill more than one hole in the rotation. But even with a healthy Musgrove, San Diego may have to get creative to fill the No. 5 starter position.

Baseball News:

• Randy Arozarena returned to the Seattle Mariners after he and Team Mexico were eliminated from the WBC. Arozarena and teammate Cal Raleigh, who plays for the US, had a now infamous interaction at home plate where Raliegh refused to shake Arozarena’s hand. Now back with the MLB club, Arozarena is ready to move on.

• Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Chris Devenski, who was struck in the head by a line drive on Friday, is back home and resting.

• Logan Webb was announced as the Opening Day starter,

WBC News:

• Venezuela knocked off the defending WBC champion Japan and advances to the semi-final to take on Italy who beat Puerto Rico to earn their spot in the semi-final game.

• Paul Skenes will make his return to the WBC to help the US try to get past a dominant Dominican Republic lineup in their semi-final matchup tonight. Whichever team wins will advance to the final to face Italy or Venezuela.