As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the base runner themselves. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most often will help you to figure out who can steal a heap of bases over the next week.
Last week, we identified J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies as a team to avoid when streaming stolen bases. While Realmuto was behind the plate, opposing base-stealers were just 3-for-7 over the past week. In the one game Rafael Marchán caught, they stole three successfully.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Story has found his groove both at the plate and on the base paths of late. Arozarena benefited from series against both the Astros and Rangers, which is great for base stealers. Also, it’s pretty to see Harper so high on this list without a teammate like Trea Turner, who’s much better known for stealing bases.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
Next, here are some players with no stolen bases that we’d hoped would be more aggressive.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
Once again, the Astros and Rangers Remain teams to target if you’re seeking stolen bases. They are the only teams in baseball who are throwing out under 10% of base stealers and things don’t seem to be improving.
Somehow, both Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka have allowed the most and fourth-most stolen bases by any catcher in the league while splitting playing time fairly evenly. Of course, it’s not all their fault as Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom have been two of the worst pitchers in baseball at holding runners on.
Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, and Chris Martin have also graded poorly here, as runners are taking large leads on them and getting massive jumps when they do decide to steal.
With the Astros, Yainer Diaz has continued to be exposed behind the plate. Yet, Victor Caratini, who was thought to give some defensive relief once or twice a week, has allowed eight stolen bases so far without catching a single runner.
Their pitchers have been a bit better at keeping runners close too, so this is a situation that leans a bit more towards the catchers.
They will have series against the Padres and Dodgers respectively this coming weekend and I expect those teams to run wild.
Brewers Picking Up Pace
Second in the league with 217 stolen bases as a team last season, the Brewers didn’t run much over their first week or so of play. Mainly, because they had their doors blown off by the Yankees over opening weekend and started the season 0-4.
They are 9-5 since though and have gotten back to their base stealing roots. They swiped a league-high 11 bags over the past seven days including four on Tuesday night against the Tigers.
It’s been a team-wide approach too, without any one player shouldering that load. Frelick appeared on the leaderboard earlier as someone who’s been running. He was joined by Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz as Brewers that stole multiple bases over the last week.
In all, seven different different players stole a base and only one was caught. They should continue to run this weekend against the Athletics, who have been one of the worst teams at stopping the running game this season.
Can’t Run on the Mets
No team has been better at throwing out would-be base stealers this season than the Mets.
Opponents have attempted just 12 and have been thrown out seven times. A 42% success rate is obscenely bad and that few attempts says that the league knows not to run on them.
This is even more impressive because through a month of play last season, the Mets were the easiest team to run on in the league. In fact, they were on pace to allow the most stolen bases in the history of the sport.
The Mets are allowing stolen bases at a historic rate
— James Schiano (@James_Schiano) May 6, 2024
52 SB by their opponents in 34 games puts them on pace to allow the most steals since we've tracked SB allowed by a team (1956) pic.twitter.com/ZwlrJY3alm
It’s been a complete 180° turnaround since then and catcher Luis Torrens is a huge reason why. Acquired from the Yankees for a measly $100,000, he replaced the hapless Omar Narvaez – who is now on the White Sox – while Francisco Alvarez was out with a thumb injury and immediately stabilized their catcher position.
He threw out 13 of 28 base stealers last season and his competency behind the plate helped the team begin what would wind up as a historic turnaround.
Past Torrens, Mets’ pitchers like Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and José Buttó have been excellent at holding runners on. Also, long-time minor leaguer Hayden Senger has been up with the club this year for the once again injured Alvarez.
Senger has won the Mets’ minor league platinum glove before and is excellent behind the plate. He and Torrens have become one of, if not the best, catching defensive tandem in the league.