After racing out to an MLB-best 45-24 start, it seemed that the 2025 Mets were going to coast to the playoffs.
Whether they won the NL East title or made it in as a Wild Card appeared to be the only question.
But since climbing to the above record on June 12, New York has gone 35-52.
It's been a stunning turn of events for a team that is this loaded with talent, has a well-regarded manager in Carlos Mendoza, is led by a terrific executive in David Stearns, and is owned by Steve Cohen -- who has left no stone unturned when it comes to reshaping the franchise and putting it in position to contend year after year.
With six games to go in the regular season, the Mets no longer control their playoff destiny, having dropped into a tie with the Reds for the third and final Wild Card spot -- with Cincinnati owning the tiebreaker.
As the Mets fight for their playoff lives this week in Chicago and Miami, here are the three biggest reasons they're at this point...
The rotation was a question mark, and then it crumbled
Ahead of the season, it was clear the Mets had a very strong 40-man roster. But if there was one concern, it was the starting rotation.
While there were lots of options for the starting staff, it was the team's biggest question mark -- something I noted in my season preview.
Injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas hurt early, leaving the Mets to rely on a rotation that had Clay Holmes (converting from relieving to starting), Kodai Senga (coming off an injury-riddled 2024), David Peterson (who had struggled with consistency), Griffin Canning (5.19 ERA/5.26 FIP in 2024), and Tylor Megill (career ERA of 4.56 and a lengthy injury history).
The rotation excelled early, but started to falter in May.
Megill had a 5.79 ERA from May 4 to June 14, and hasn't pitched since due to injury.
Canning began to regress to the mean during his start on June 10 and was lost for the season on June 26 when he tore his Achilles.
Holmes has pitched admirably as he's blown way past his prior high for innings pitched in a season, but hasn't been able to provide much length. Since June 7, he has completed more than 5.0 innings in just three of his 16 starts (counting only the non-piggyback ones).
Senga has not been himself since returning from a hamstring injury, and made his last two starts in the minors.
After a hot start that led to an All-Star selection, Peterson has faded, with a 7.59 ERA in 40.1 innings since Aug. 6.
Manaea, who is pitching with loose bodies in his elbow that he says are not impacting his performance, has a 5.59 ERA in 58.0 innings and is now part of the aforementioned piggyback with Holmes.
Then there's Montas, who had a 6.28 ERA in 38.2 innings after returning and was then lost for the year on Aug. 15 due to Tommy John surgery.
All of this has put tons of pressure (and an enormous workload) on the bullpen, led to the Mets playing from behind way too often, and resulted in them having three rookies anchoring their staff down the stretch (more on that in a bit).
An offense that has been too inconsistent
The Mets' offense has shown the ability to bludgeon its opponents, but it has also had long stretches where it has been among the most anemic in the league.
That includes the eight-game losing streak from Sept. 6 to 13, when New York scored just 24 runs -- an average of three per game.
Over the weekend as the Mets were losing two of three games to the last-place Nationals, they mustered only three runs during an 11-inning loss on Saturday and scratched across only two as they lost by a run on Sunday. On Saturday specifically, it came down to a failure to execute with runners on base in the ninth and 10th innings.
Given that Juan Soto will likely finish in the top three in MVP voting, that Pete Alonso has an .876 OPS and 38 home runs (and has been red hot for a month), and that Francisco Lindor is having another phenomenal season, the level of inconsistency and depth of the struggles at times has been odd.
In addition to the big three of Soto, Alonso, and Lindor, the Mets are also getting strong seasons from Jeff McNeil (115 OPS+), Francisco Alvarez (118 OPS+), Brandon Nimmo (114 OPS+), Starling Marte (118 OPS+), and Brett Baty (109 OPS+).
Mark Vientos' up-and-down year has hurt a bit -- as has the absence of Jesse Winker and lack of production from center field. But those relatively minor things don't explain how alarming the struggles have sometimes been.
Not enough proactivity in July
When the rotation was in need of arms in July, the Mets opted to rely on bullpen games -- and to keep a struggling Paul Blackburn in the rotation (they lost his last four starts).
Specifically, they were swept by the Orioles in a doubleheader where they used Brandon Waddell, Justin Hagenman, and Richard Lovelady in Game 2. And they lost a game to the Yankees where Waddell put them in an early 5-0 hole before they fought back. But Zach Pop was used in relief, and struggled as they game slipped away.
During that time, the club also relied on Blade Tidwell for starts and bulk innings as he pitched to a 9.00 ERA over four appearances.
While this was going on, Nolan McLean was excelling for Triple-A Syracuse and Brandon Sproat was starting to find his form. It is totally understandable that the team didn't turn to Sproat in July, given how his season started. But had New York called up McLean at that point, it can be argued that they would've won a few of the games they in effect punted.
It's impossible to know how ready McLean would've been on July 4 or July 10 as opposed to Aug. 16 (when he made his big league debut). But it made sense to find out, given the alternatives.
Now, as the Mets try to salvage a once-promising season, all eyes are on McLean -- who has become their stopper. He has been joined recently in the rotation by Sproat and Jonah Tong, who will all make starts this week.
***
Even though it was possible to see the Mets' rotation issues coming, and even though the offense has been perplexing at times, the team should not have fallen this far -- even with the rotation and offensive problems.
That they find themselves fighting for a playoff spot falls primarily on the players for too often failing to execute.
Meanwhile, I've seen lots of consternation regarding the trade deadline Stearns had. But it's mostly revisionist history.
The trades for Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto were lauded at the time, and Cedric Mullins was viewed as a needed offensive upgrade.
Sometimes, players don't perform up to their standards, as has been the case with Helsley (whose pitch-tipping played a hand in it) and Mullins (whose power has mostly vanished as a Met). Rogers (2.25 ERA) and Soto (3.86 ERA) have been good since being acquired.
Could Stearns have traded for starting pitching help at the deadline? Sure. But the prices were sky-high and the impact pitchers rumored to be available were not moved.
In any event, the Mets still have a week left to write their story.
If it's one that ends in the playoffs, what has happened since the middle of June will be a footnote. If it ends with New York on the outside looking in, it might become a book.
