Category: MLB

It was a tough Thursday evening for the Atlanta Braves affiliates. They all took losses and none of them looked particularly good doing it. There were still some good things going on, especially down in Augusta, but it was overall a disappointing evening for the starting pitching.

(25-17) Gwinnett Stripers 4, (17-25) Durham Bulls 5

Box Score

Statcast

• Jim Jarvis, SS: 1-5, .310/.413/.437
• Nacho Alvarez Jr., 3B: 1-5, .238/.324/.333
• Rowdy Tellez, 1B: 3-5, RBI, .250/.349/.516
• Owen Murphy, SP: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 3 K, 6.59 ERA

It’s the third start in a Stripers uniform for Owen Murphy, and he has gone down, up, and now back down again as high walks rates continue to be a startling problem for him this year. Across both levels Murphy is already only five walks short of his career high for walks in a season, and a big problem has just been his inability to keep anything down in the strike zone. While his high carry fastball can play well in the upper parts of the strike zone and higher the same is not true of the slider and curveball, and both pitches have not been effective and have forced Murphy to be nearly completely reliant on fastballs to succeed. Pitchers who throw a lot of fastballs but don’t have elite velocity tend to get hit around for home runs at the upper levels and with one more today Murphy is up to four home runs allowed in three Triple-A starts and nine allowed in 34 1/3 innings this season. Some of this is due to him just overall not commanding the ball well, but finding reliable command on his secondaries to take pressure off of his fastball is imperative.

Murphy also struggled to maintain velocity in this game, averaging 93.9 mph on his fastball but watching that dip inning-over-inning until it bottomed at 90.6 mph in the fourth. Murphy has to have more stamina than running out of gas at only 72 pitches, though to be fair Murphy’s fastball was by far his best weapon this game. A home run taints the final line of the pitch overall, but it was the one he could get strikes with most consistently and wasn’t hit all that well outside of the home run. Murphy’s fastball has the ability to be effective even without elite velocity, but to hit the next level and crack into MLB conversations his slider has to be much more consistent because it is his best pitch when he can bury it. The offense lacked a standout performer and scored most of their runs in one clutch of hits in the 7th inning, putting up a three spot that brought them within a run. However there wasn’t much impact contact to match the two Bulls home runs and that made the difference in the final line. Nacho Alvarez was able to record a hit but it was not a great outing for him. His hit came on a medium contact ball that snuck through the infield and his other four at bats all looked rough including two strikeouts.

Swing and Misses

Owen Murphy – 7

Dylan Dodd – 6

(17-18) Columbus Clingstones 1, (20-16) Knoxville Smokies 5

Box Score

• Patrick Clohisy, CF: 1-3, BB, .234/.308/.372
• Jordan Groshans, 3B: 2-4, .246/.308/.516
• Shay Schanaman, SP: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 5.49 ERA
• Jhancarlos Lara, RP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 9.28 ERA

The Columbus pitching staff got battered, allowing three home runs that accounted for four of Knoxville’s runs, and without David McCabe and Lizandro Espinoza in the lineup the offense did not have the firepower to answer back. The offense as a whole only managed to record four hits in the game, though Jordan Groshans at least kept his hot play from yesterday rolling just a bit. He had half of the teams hits in the game, though both were singles, and so far this month has been hitting .308/.357/.718. Patrick Clohisy also had a hit and a walk, extending what has been a really solid week of play for him. Clohisy has struggled mightily this season and still isn’t producing his performance from his time in Columbus last season, but he is getting back to drawing a bunch of walks and getting on base. During his recent five game on base streak he is 4-15 with six walks and only three strikeouts, and much of the batted ball inputs are better than the numbers might suggest. Despite a low BABIP he is hitting plenty of line drives, and though his lack of raw power does cap his results he should be able to reproduce more of the results he has put up thus far in his career.

Pitching has been the achilles heel for the Clingstones this season, as in addition to leading the Southern League in home runs on offense they have also given up the most home runs and the worst ERA in the league. Shay Schanaman did a solid job for four innings, producing a ton of ground ball contact that went for outs, but the fly balls he did allow found a way to hurt him. He allowed two solo home runs in the game to account for both of the runs he did allow before departing. Schanaman has already allowed a career-high six long balls in just 19 2/3 innings of work. The Clingstones have also allowed the highest walks per nine of any Southern League team, and with guys like Elison Joseph and Jhancarlos Lara getting big innings in the bullpen it’s not hard to guess why. After a great outing two days ago Lara couldn’t get the ball around the zone in this one, though fortunately he’s so overpowering that teams often struggle to make good contact against him. The bag was a bit more mixed for Elison Joseph. His control was not good, but it was at least fringe, and he produced a ton of whiffs which has always been the case for him when he is anywhere near the zone. Unfortunately the last two seasons he hasn’t been and the two walks he allowed this game didn’t do much to improve the 29.5% walk rate he’s posted this season. The whiffs should come back based on the contact rates he is allowing so far, but that can’t make up for the fact that he has been very lucky to only have a 3.38 ERA this season.

Swing and Misses

Elison Joseph – 10

Shay Schanaman – 7

(20-16) Rome Emperors 0, (9-26) Brooklyn Cyclones 7

Box Score

• Isaiah Drake, CF: 1-4, .293/.369/.500
• John Gil, SS: 0-3, .281/.385/.469
• Jeremy Reyes, SP: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 4.83 ERA

The Emperors looked quite dreadful against a really bad Brooklyn team, and it’s probably best to motor past this one pretty quickly. Now, the Cyclones did run out as good of a combination of pitchers as they can muster, but it was still an ugly day for the offense. John Gil had a couple of strikeouts, and after a marvelous week in Asheville he has yet to record a hit with only one walk this series. Gil has shown a strong pattern of up-and-down play this entire season and he may be on a bit of a down swing at the moment, though there isn’t anything he is putting on the field that is worth getting concerned over. Isaiah Drake had an okay showing with a hard line drive for a single in the third inning, though nothing overly spectacular especially not compared to the crazy finish in Asheville. He broke his streak of six straight games with a stolen base by not swiping a bag today, but so far he is on a nine game on base streak and has been successful in his last nine stolen base attempts.

Every time health has been on Jeremy Reyes’s side he has shown something worth watching, and he used his fastball and slider to great effect in this game to get a bunch of whiffs. However, his command was no better than it has been this entire season and even a very free-swinging Brooklyn team learned to let him make mistakes the second time through the order. He dominated the first go around but couldn’t delivery that success consistently and allowed runs in each inning he pitches the second and third times through the order. Reyes is a bit of a tough evaluation because of how much time he has missed due to injury, but after an exciting look a couple of seasons ago it’s quickly trended towards a bullpen future for him. The injuries don’t help that at all, and neither does the lack of any progression with his command. Reyes doesn’t show the sort of athleticism or ability to repeat his arm path that would give much confidence to MLB-quality command projections, though the raw stuff is plenty good enough to succeed in a bullpen role if he does eventually make that switch. Given that he is 20 years old and doesn’t have as much competition behind him after the Braves last draft he will keep getting opportunities, but the lack of a clear line upwards is a bit frustrating for a guy who has so much room to grow.

Swing and Misses 

Jeremy Reyes – 17

Mathieu Curtis – 6

(19-17) Augusta GreenJackets 1, (17-17) Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Box Score

• Tate Southisene, DH: 1-4, .261/.469/.391
• Alex Lodise, SS: 1-4, .321/.387/.393
• Luis Guanipa, CF: 1-4, .348/.400/.435
• Landon Beidelschies, SP: 4 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 11.00 ERA
• Luis Arestigueta, RP: 4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 6.87 ERA

Tate Southisene, Alex Lodise, and Luis Guanipa all had singles in this game, and that’s the point it’s best to stop talking about the offense. It was mostly a mess, though those three looked really good out there and perhaps a bit better than the lines might indicate. Southisene wasn’t really getting the ball in the air this game, but had a couple of hard hits on the ground and is putting up some good deep at-bats. I really like where Alex Lodise was in this game, at least on fastballs, and there is some improvement for him against breaking balls. He is still a bit late at recognizing and adjusting to spin but has looked better this week, and his contact has been awesome. You have the home run yesterday, but also a couple of hard hit fly balls that he was right on and hit to center field and some missiles that landed foul. Guanipa was the one that has put up great swings the past two games and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get right back to where he was next week in the coming games. He has done a great job of controlling the inner half of the strike zone, and it’s led to hard contact and in this particular game some loud foul balls. He needs to be less aggressive up, but has a rare blend of bat speed and barrel control to be able to get to those pitches and not strike out even if it would serve him to wait for lower offerings. We know the approach is an issue and aggression is going to be the scariest part of his profile for the rest of his career, but he’s been smashing the ball when he makes contact and as he’s started to lift more the home runs should keep coming in for him. It’s a great turn around after a bad couple of seasons and now I only hope he can just stay on the field for a full season.

Landon Beidelschies didn’t have the worst of outings on Thursday, but he really couldn’t land a secondary pitch for a swing and miss. Beidelschies was heavy on his fastball usage against the Pelicans, and it led to him throwing a ton of strikes but also letting up a ton of contact that turned into runs. His home run allowed came on a curveball that looped right over the middle of the plate, but many of his hits came on well-placed fastballs that Myrtle Beach was just able to hit. That’s going to happen sometimes, especially for a guy who doesn’t have the velocity to get it past hitters, but it’s unfortunately a bit magnified when it comes from a pitcher who hasn’t managed a good outing yet this season. Beidelschies has just got to be better about landing his secondary offerings consistently or it’s going to be a continued struggle even when he is commanding his fastball well. Big time positives came from Luis Arestigueta, who carried over a good ending to his last outing to put up a phenomenal performance this Thursday. It didn’t start out so great, though. He walked the first batter he faced and was falling into the tendency of flying open early and dragging his arm behind. He was missing glove side over and over, but did well enough to reign it in and get some fly outs to end the inning. He came out again in the second inning and immediately threw three balls the exact same way, but was able to dial his mechanics in and put up his best outing since his second of the season. A missed location on a fastball turned into a two run bomb, but otherwise both his fastball and slider were missing bats. He was doing well to land the fastball up and bury the slider, and especially in the final inning he was making the Pelicans look foolish with his slider. He even mixed in a swinging strike on a changeup, a pitch that is too firm to be an effective pitch at high usage but is nice to see him at least developing.

Swing and Misses

Luis Arestigueta – 14

Landon Beidelschies – 5

Good day folks and happy Friday!

The Mariners bounced back in a big way yesterday, rolling past the Astros in an 8-3 series finale victory.

Despite a lofty 36.1% strikeout rate, Luke Raley’s hot season with the stick continues. Do you believe in his performance so far, or do you expect him to come crashing back to earth?

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, Cal Raliegh was placed on the injured list for the first time in his career with an oblique issue.
• The Mariners dealt recently DFA’d left-hander José Suarez to the A’s for cash considerations.
• The Seattle Mariners have partnered with Live Nation to build a new concert venue near T-Mobile Park. The venue will take over the site of the old Pyramid Brewery and is expected to open in 2029.
• New Padres right-hander Lucas Giolito appears poised to make his season debut this weekend against the M’s.
• Nate Schwartz at Pitcher List wrote about the evolution of George Kirby in 2026.
• On the latest episode of The Enni Way, Sarah Enni talked to Shannon Drayer about Cal’s slump, Bryce Miller’s return, and other topics.

Around the league…

• The City of Tampa, Hillsborough County, and the Rays have drawn up a deal for a public-private partnership that will enable them to build a new stadium for the franchise.
• MLB Pipeline updated its list of the top 100 prospects in baseball.

Anders’ pick…

• Over at GQ, friend of the site Matthew Roberson interviewed Saturday Night Live comedian Marcelo Hernández (for the second time!) to talk about his recent comedy special and what’s next for the rising star.

A matchup that was once known as the MASN Cup takes on a new identity this summer. The Nationals are now one of the many teams that works directly with MLB to broadcast their games locally. Meanwhile, the Orioles are back out on their own channel for the first since 2004, when they were still on Comcast SportsNet. Everything old is new again.

As for the on-field play, these two teams are in frustratingly similar places. The Nationals are 21-23, nine games back of first place in the NL East and 4.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the NL. The Orioles are 20-24, nine games back of first place in the AL East but only 1.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the AL.

Washington has one of the most productive lineups in baseball. The 236 runs they have scored is just one fewer than the league-leading Atlanta Braves. Other stats where they rank within the top five in MLB: doubles, slugging percentage, and stolen bases.

CJ Abrams and James Wood lead the attack. Abrams’ 158 wRC+ is the best on the team, as is his .292 batting average, .390 on-base, and .532 slug. Wood is the masher of the group. He has hit 12 home runs on the year and scored 36 runs, both team highs. The Rockville native is a “three true outcomes” type, as he has a 17.0% walk rate and a 31.9% strikeout rate.

Joey Wiemer (154 wRC+), Curtis Mead (126 wRC+), José Tena (122 wRC+), Daylen Lile (113 wRC+), and Luis García Jr (108 wRC+) have all done well at the plate too. Nasim Nuńez isn’t much of a threat in the box (62 wRC+), but be careful if he gets on base. His 18 steals are tied for the most in Major League Baseball, and he has only been caught twice.

Run prevention is where Washington has struggled. No one has allowed more than the 256 runs that they have, and only the Astros (5.59) have a worse ERA than the D.C.’s 5.01. The bullpen has been a bit better than the rotation. Their ERA is just 4.81, and it has come across 204 innings, the biggest workload of any bullpen in the league.

Six different Nationals pitchers have recorded saves on the year, but the team doesn’t really have a lockdown arm. Gus Varland leads the squad with four saves. He also has a 4.50 ERA and only strikes out 9.56 per nine innings. Outside of that, it’s an anonymous crew that is still figuring out roles. Old friend Cionel Pérez has tossed 16 innings for them this season, but he elected free agency earlier this month and is now in the Mets organization.

The Washington IL is full of pitchers. Noteable inclusions are Josiah Gray (right flexor strain) and Trevor Williams (right elbow sprain). Neither one will play this weekend.

Game 1: Friday, May 15th, 6:45 p.m., MASN

RHP Shane Baz (1-4, 5.48 ERA) vs. RHP Zack Littell (1-4, 6.94 ERA)

It feels fair to say that Baz has had one genuinely good start in an Orioles uniform. That came against the Astros in late April. Over his two starts since, the power righty has allowed 10 earned runs over 10.1 total innings. Walks have been an issue for him. If he can avoid the free passes, things should work out alright. That’s easier said than done, of course.

Littell was brought in to be a dependable veteran arm in a Washington rotation that needed the structure. Instead, he has struggled mightily. He is walking (3.22 BB/9) and striking out (4.21 K/9) batters at nearly an identical rate. His 8.26 FIP is even worse than his 6.94 ERA.

Game 2: Saturday, May 16th, 4:05 p.m., MASN, FS1

RHP Chris Bassitt (3-2, 5.21 ERA) vs. RHP Cade Cavalli (1-2, 4.02 ERA)

Two of the last three starts that Bassitt has made have gone well! He gave up just one run in six innings against the Athletics earlier in the week, and allowed one run over 6.2 frames against the Astros at the end of April. In between the two was a poor outing in Miami. But overall, it is improvement! The Orioles do not need perfection from Bassit. They need innings and solid quality. More recently, he has provided exactly that.

Cavalli has been a bright spot in the Nationals rotation, though he has waned recently. The 27-year-old is a hard thrower, but it’s his off-speed stuff that gets the best marks. Even still, it’s a fastball-heavy arsenal that should give the Orioles a chance to score some runs.

Game 3: Sunday, May 17th, 1:35 p.m., MASN

RHP Brandon Young (3-1, 4.15 ERA) vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (1-3, 7.00 ERA)

It’s tough to complain about what Young has come in and provided this Orioles rotation. He’s had one bad start in five attempts, and even in that one he was able to provide a little bit of length (four innings) despite an early meltdown. The Texas native has done nothing to change the perspective that he is simply a placeholder until Dean Kremer is back, but it feels like he has edged ahead of several others in the organizational depth chart when it comes to being the go-to spot starter when needed.

Mikolas allowed 11 earned runs in his second start of the year and has been fighting that in his ERA ever since. Overall, the veteran has been OK, I guess. The team doesn’t ask him for much, usually three to five innings without allowing the game to slip away. Usually he is able to accomplish that. You can expect a lot of ground balls. Mikolas is among the league leaders in that department (54.4% ground ball rate).

How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments.

Another week in the books! Welcome to Friday A’s fans.

Yesterday morning the A’s announced the addition of some outside bullpen help, acquiring left-hander Jose Suarez from the Seattle Mariners for cash considerations:

In order to make room on the 40-man roster for Suarez, the team designated outfielder Junior Perez for assignment, meaning any of the other 29 teams in the league can claim him. The A’s will be immediately adding Suarez to the bullpen today so there will be another corresponding roster move to make immediate room on the 26-man roster.

Suarez should be a name plenty familiar to A’s fans after he spent 2019-2024 seasons down south with the division-rival Angels. The left-hander then spent a year on the other side of the country with the Braves and began this season with them before finding his way to Seattle. Split between the Braves and Mariners this year the 28-year-old has pitched in just nine games, allowing 13 runs in 18 1/3 innings of work which comes out to a 6.38 ERA. Not a great season to date.

That said, the former starting pitcher has been better in the ‘pen as a left-handed relief option and the numbers back that up. He’s got strikeout potential but also has major control issues. As of now the only lefty in Mark Kotsay’s bullpen is Hogan Harris so the need to add another lefty was clear. With Suarez getting DFA’d the A’s are taking a chance that the team can fix him and get him back to the point he was just a few years ago, when he looked like a budding backend starter for the Angels.

To bring in Suarez, the A’s needed roster space so they made the decision to designate outfield prospect Junior Perez for assignment. Widely considered a top-20 prospect in the Athletics’ organization, Perez was added to the 40-man roster this offseason to prevent him getting selected in the Rule 5 Draft. The logic was sound as he was coming off a fantastic .231/.348/.478 slash line with 26 homers and 27 steals split between Double and Triple-A. Add in the fact that many believed he was nearly as good a defender in center field as Denzel Clarke, it was clear the A’s front office liked what they were seeing from the then-23-year-old.

Things unfortunately have not gone nearly as smoothly for Perez here in 2026 as he’s limped to a .210/.273/.384 line while striking out more and walking less. He’s looked outmatched at the minor leagues’ highest level so far this season and even though he ranked as the team’s 20th-best prospect, the decision has been made to remove him off the 40-man roster and risk him getting claimed. The team will surely be hoping he slips through and remains in Las Vegas but his awesome year last season could entice another club to bring Perez aboard. Stay tuned to see how his situation unfolds.

Turning to the big league squad, we got the San Francisco Giants coming to town this weekend for a three-game set. The former Bay Area rivals have gotten off to a horrendous start this year as they sit fourth in the NL West with a 18-25 record, tied for fourth-worst in the entire sport. Almost nothing has gone right for new manager Tony Vitello in his first year as a manager in the professional ranks and many Giants fans are already beginning to wonder if he was the right pick to lead a veteran-laded squad.

Speaking of the Giants’ vets, they’ve been absolutely hamstrung by horrid seasons to date from the likes of Willy Adames, Rafael Devers and former A’s All-Star Matt Chapman. None of them have been living up to the massive contracts they are tied to and that’s been a huge reason why the Giants rank last or near last in most offensive categories. They’re last in runs scored, with the team ahead of them having scored a full 15 runs more than SF. They’ve gotten above-average production out of fourth-year infielder Casey Schmitt, and left fielder Heliot Ramos and longtime veteran Luis Arraez have provided production, but they’re big bats have slumped and are a big reason why the Giants are on track to be sellers this summer.

The pitching schedule for this weekend looks like mostly veteran-on-veteran matchups, and the A’s might be getting lucky avoiding seeing any of the Giants’ top starters in Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. Tonight’s series opener will pit Aaron Civale against Tyler Mahle. While both signed one-year deals this offseason, Civale has been far and away better as the 31-year-old Mahle has struggled in his first season in SF. Civale has been on an absolute roll as well while Mahle has surrendered nine runs in his last three starts (though one of those was a scoreless appearance).

Saturday will be the only day we see a young arm take the mound as the Giants will hope rookie right-hander Trevor McDonald can go toe-to-toe with Luis Severino. McDonald, considered a top-15 prospect in the Giants’ farm system, has gotten off to a quick start to his season as he’s made two solid starts for SF since being recalled a couple weeks ago. Not much of a track record for him to show off but the Giants are getting desperate for pitching help and he’s provided some so far. Severino, the grizzled veteran on the other hand, has had an up-and-down season so far but is on the up and up right now. Sevy has made four consecutive solid starts, allowing just five runs over his past four starts spanning 24 innings of work. With a 4.07 ERA he’ll have an excellent chance to get that number under 4 facing a struggling Giants offense.

And Sunday we wrap the series and home stand with Jeffrey Springs going up against Adrian Houser. Like Mahle, Houser was an offseason addition meant to stabilize the SF rotation while providing some possible upside. Things have gone south for him however as he got hit hard in April. Things have begun to turn around for Houser as the calendar has shifted to May though. Springs meanwhile has been the team’s best pitcher overall this year but is coming off a starting appearance that saw him allow four runs in the first inning. He grinded though and provided five full innings without allowing another run so the hope is that he can just pick up where he left off and keep up his great season against the Giants on Sunday afternoon in Sacramento.

That’s all we got this morning. First pitch tonight is at 6:40 everyone so set your alarms. And have a great weekend everyone.

A’s Coverage:

• A’s get lefty reliever Suarez in trade with Mariners
• Bolte Flashes In Athletics’ Win Over Cardinals
• Kurtz shakes off pain, crushes massive grand slam to lift A’s
• Langeliers crushes 100th career HR (448 ft!) as breakout season continues
• The A’s drop series opener to the Cards 6-4
• A’s roster moves: Bolte, Stefanic recalled; Wilson to IL; Harris optioned, Nuñez DFA’d
• There’s Forcing Your Way Up And There’s Bolte — Is There A Spot For Him?
• May Roster Shuffle Could Help The A’s — But They’d Have To Want It
• Athletics’ Wei-En Lin Continues Rising The Ranks
• Now that we’ve seen a two-way player, what about a three-way player?
• A Walk In The Park Is Nice…To A Point
• Three Things To Watch For The Athletics In May

MLB News and Interest:

• Mariners’ Cal Raleigh (oblique) lands on IL for first time
• Francisco Alvarez Undergoes Surgery For Meniscus Tear
• Injuries: Raleigh, Fried, Mets, Buxton, Red Sox, Brewers
• Twins send scuffling outfielder Matt Wallner to Triple-A
• Latest On Blue Jays’ Rotation
• The Top 100 Prospects list has been updated, and there’s a new No. 1
• Well-rounded Braves rally past Cubs, move to MLB-best 30-13
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Tough break for one of the A’s top pitching prospects. On the bright side doesn’t sound too serious:

Any guesses how far Kurtz can take this streak? Is McGuire in trouble?

Bummer that Perez’s best performance at the plate came just one day before his DFA:

ICYMI:

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We're going with a pair of moneylines to kick off our MLB picks for Friday's slate of games.

See why our baseball experts love the value on Colorado, Cleveland, and the Yankees — based on prices from Polymarket, to win tonight as we kick off MLB Rivalry Weekend!

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: COL ML	+113
Joe Osborne: CLE ML	-127
Jon Metler: NYY ML	-144

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rockies moneyline

Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket

This game has all the makings of a slugfest with winds blowing out at Coors Field and a starting pitching matchup that’s tough on the eyes. I have Merrill Kelly ranked as the worst starter on the board today, and he sits at the bottom of the league in BlastContact%. On the other side, Kyle Freeland isn’t exactly a household name, but backing the Colorado Rockies in the first game of a series against the Diamondbacks at plus money makes sense. Arizona still has to deal with the usual Colorado adjustment and visual memory index that can impact teams arriving at Coors. The Over 12 is also in play here, and both offenses could get going early.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Guardians moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket

The Cleveland Guardians are in a strong spot tonight behind Tanner Bibee, who has pitched like an ace at home this season, allowing one earned run or fewer in four of five starts in Cleveland. He'll face a Reds lineup that ranks in the bottom third of the league in both runs and OPS on the road, which has contributed to an eight-game road losing streak. Expect the Guardians lineup to make some noise vs. Andrew Abbott as well: Cleveland is one of the top offenses in baseball vs. LHP, which has led to an 11-3 record when facing a lefty starter. The bullpen edge is massive as well, with Cincinnati ranking dead last in both ERA and FIP since the calendar flipped to May.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Yankees moneyline

Price: 59¢ (-144) at Polymarket

The Subway Series kicks off tonight at Citi Field, and if the market is going to give me value on the New York Yankees with Cam Schlittler on the mound, I’m taking it without hesitation. The Yankees are trading around 59 cents, but I make them closer to 63-cent favorites against the Mets, leaving a solid edge on the number. The matchup also lines up well offensively for the Yankees: Clay Holmes relies heavily on a sinker and a sharp slider that plays more like a sweeper, but those pitches tend to lose effectiveness against left-handed hitters. That’s a problem against a Yankees lineup that, outside of Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe, will predominantly hit from the left side — and I think the Yanks can generate consistent traffic on the bases against Holmes throughout the game.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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The baseball gods owe me one today. I started the week in the black before back-to-back donuts, so I’m cashing in the home-run luck card on a loaded Friday slate.

The projections are finally opening up with more than two dozen +EV names and MLB player props showing value, and a long list of pitchers begging to be faded.

Tyler Mahle in Sutter Health Park is a recipe for four-baggers, and Athletics' shiny new rookie Henry Bolte is going to test that.

These are my favorite home run bets for Friday, May 15.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Heliot Ramos	+475
Pete Alonso	+353
Henry Bolte	+750
💲Today's HR parlay	+13850

Home run pick: Heliot Ramos (+475)

Heliot Ramos and the San Francisco Giants have a great home run matchup today at Sutter Health Park with slight winds blowing out to right field and Aaron Civale on the mound.

The Athletics starter gives up fast swings and loud contact. His expected metrics suggest that shiny ERA isn’t built to last. He also owns one of the lower ground-ball rates in baseball, and that 0.86 HR/9 feels more likely to climb toward his career mark of 1.30.

Like many pitchers, his numbers in Sacramento are also much worse than they are on the road.

Ramos projects as the best +EV home run play on the board today, according to the projections at Covers. The fair price for the middle-of-the-order bat is around +330, and he’ll also get a chance to attack an Athletics bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks and has been heavily used this week.

Outside of the Coors Field game, this matchup carries the biggest total on the board. Bombs away, boys.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, NBCSBA

Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+353)

If Zack Littell doesn’t get pummeled today, I’ll be at a loss for words. He’s one of the worst starters in baseball and profiles as a perfect pitcher fade for home runs, sitting in the bottom 15 in BlastContact%, HR/FB rate, and xFIP.

It’s tough to go wrong with any Baltimore bat here, especially with one of the league’s worst bullpens likely being asked to cover four-plus innings. Littell worked as a bulk reliever last game and has thrown 69, 41, and 84 pitches over his last three outings. He’s also allowed multiple home runs in five of his eight appearances.

Pete Alonso is a buy down to +290 today, and this number is dropping quickly. Taylor Ward grades as the better +EV play according to Covers projections, but he’s launched just one longball this year and Alonso has been one of the better bats to back all season.

If you want to get really aggressive, I’d build a home run round robin with Adley Rutschman (+620) and Gunnar Henderson (+361). If you’re hunting home runs, the Orioles might be the best target on the board today.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, MASN

Home run pick: Henry Bolte (+750)

Henry Bolte was built for a Friday dinger. The three-game rookie who hit 12 homers in Triple-A last year in just 37 games has three hits in the big leagues, and already owns the second-fastest bat speed in the Athletics lineup.

Nick Kurtz is +265 to go deep, and there’s no way the rookie should be three times that price vs. Tyler Mahle and his awful HR/FB rate.

Every one of Bolte’s swings through two games has been classified as a fast swing (75+ mph), compared to hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sitting around 63%.

The kid has a clear home-run swing, the right matchup, and the ideal setting today. This might be the last time we see his HR price above +500, especially at Sutter Health Park.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, NBCSBA

Today’s HR parlay

Heliot Ramos	Bet Now +13850
Pete Alonso
Henry Bolte

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Toronto Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has baffled batters all season, and I expect the same result against a Detroit Tigers lineup that struggles with the splitter. 

Read on to see why with my Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers predictions and MLB picks on Friday, May 15. 

Blue Jays vs Tigers predictions

Blue Jays vs Tigers best bet: Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts  (-110)

Toronto Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has been incredible in his three starts since making his debut on April 28. 

He owns a 0.68 ERA, allowing just one run in 13.1 innings. The strikeout rate has been impressive too, going Over the number in back-to-back starts, racking up 10.15 K/9 in that stretch with a 36% chase rate. 

When Yesavage is pairing his fastball with that deadly splitter, he becomes nearly unhittable. 

He has a .176 batting average against this season on his splitter with a 38% whiff on the pitch. 

The splitter is Yesavage's put-away pitch, and it’s one that has troubled the Detroit Tigers' bats all season, posting a 39% strikeout rate and 41% whiff rate.

COVERS INTEL:The Tigers rank in the bottom five in strikeout and whiff rate against the splitter this season.  

Blue Jays vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)

Tigers starter Ty Madden throws a heavy dose of the sinker to right-handed batters. That’s a pitch that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit well this year with a .366 avg. I’ll bank on him bumping the slump in a plus-pitching matchup. 

For the final leg of my SGP I’ll bet on Yohendrick Pinango to go Over 0.5 hits. He’s been red hot with the bat, recording at least one hit in nine of his 13 career outings.

Blue Jays vs Tigers SGP

• Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Vladimir Guerrero Over 1.5 total bases
• Yohendrick Pinango Over 0.5 hits 

Blue Jays vs Tigers home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+350)

I’m making this a half-unit wager. 

Madden doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 92.7MPH on his pitches, which ranks in the 23rd percentile. 

His primary pitch to righties is a sinker, four-seamer combo. 

Enter Kazuma Okamoto, who has a team-high 10 home runs this year, while ranking in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate.

He also owns a .596 xSLG with six homers against those two pitches this season.

Blue Jays vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -125 | Detroit +113
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+140) | Detroit +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125)

Blue Jays vs Tigers trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Tigers.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Tigers and game info

Blue Jays vs Tigers latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Tigers weather

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San Diego Padres starter Griffin Canning walked the bases loaded and eventually walked in the first run of the game in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on Thursday. Canning allowed three runs in the first and three more in the second before he was taken out of the game after just 1.2 innings of work. It was obvious from the start that Canning was going to struggle. Too many pitches were uncompetitive, and the near misses were not close enough to entice the Brewers batters to swing. When Canning was forced to put the ball over the plate Milwaukee took advantage and drove in runs. San Diego was down 6-0 after two innings and as exciting as the ninth inning that led to a Padres win was the night before, there was never a feeling San Diego had a chance in the 7-1 loss to Milwaukee. The feeling that the game was over before it started was not solely on Canning, although he was a big part of it, the lineup had a lot to do with it. The top three in the order, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado combined to go 1-for-11 in the game. Tatis Jr. struck out in three of his five at-bats. The four through eight batters in the San Diego lineup combined to go 6-for-19 with Nick Castellanos leading the group and the team with two hits. The Padres bullpen performed well allowing just one run over the final 6.1 innings and they gave San Diego a chance to get back in the game, but the rally never came. The Padres are on the road in Seattle today to take on the Mariners at 6:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• Matt Waldron started the series against the Brewers on Tuesday but came out of the game after just 58 pitches due to ineffectiveness. He was given the opportunity to face Milwaukee for a second time in the series when he came out of the bullpen in the final game of the set. It is possible that was the final appearance for Waldron in a Padres uniform.

• Padres prospect Alex McCoy broke out of his slump with his first home run of May in a loss for the Fort Wayne TinCaps.

Baseball News:

• Jesus Luzardo and his teammate Kyle Schwarber helped the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Boston Red Sox.

• The St. Louis Cardinals did their best Padres impression, coming down to the final out of the game before mounting a comeback.

• The Los Angeles Dodgers knocked of the San Francisco Giants for the second time in as many days to split the series.

• The Chicago Cubs finally solved the Atlanta Braves and earned a win on Thursday.

• The New York Mets beat the Detroit Tigers, 9-4 and earned their first series sweep of the season. Detroit manager A.J. Hinch was not there to see it after he was thrown out of the game for arguing a play at third base,

• The Athletics traded the Seattle Mariners for Jose Suarez in an exchange for cash considerations.

• The Mariners placed catcher Cal Raleigh on the IL, but they were still able to continue their winning ways over the Houston Astros.

Only the Tulsa Drillers lost as the Loons and Tower Buzzers executed comeback wins, and the Comets outlasted the Isotopes in a shootout.

Player of the day

At twenty-six years of age, catcher Eliezer Alfonso already has vast experience in the minors, and early on in 2026, he’s putting up the best numbers he has ever had with performances such as this four-hit game yesterday against the Isotopes in a 12-10 win.

Alfonso now has a .312 batting average across 77 at-bats, significantly better than the .247 mark he showcased through two levels last year. How much of this he can sustain remains to be seen, but his production helps deepen this Comets lineup.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

A normal game that had a 2-1 score in favor of OKC after five innings turned out to be a dazzling slugfest on both sides, with the Comets getting the last laugh in a 12-10 win on the road. Given that the bullpens were responsible for all of the fireworks, Comets starter Christian Romero delivered quite the performance, allowing just one run in six full innings.

Offensively, the production was rather evenly distributed, with seven different batters recording multihit games and the same number getting at least one RBI. Out of all of them, catcher Alfonso gets the biggest praise as the only hitter to record four knocks on either side, but ninth-hole hitter Zach Ehrhard was also key with a pair of doubles and three RBI.

Double-A Tulsa

It’s difficult to overcome 12 free passes, as the Tulsa Drillers came to know in a 7-2 loss at the hands of the Cardinals. For the third time this season, left-hander Wyatt Crowell conceded at least four walks, moving to a 2-4 record with a whopping 2.01 WHIP.

As if the walks alone weren’t problematic, the Drillers also saw their opponents be successful in five out of six stolen base attempts, whereas Tulsa’s only stolen base came from shortstop Elijah Hainline. Speaking of onlys, Kendall George was alone in his multi-hit effort, scoring a run.

High-A Great Lakes

Without swinging the bat in the tenth inning, the Loons overcame a 2-1 deficit to beat the Whitecaps in walkoff fashion by a score of 3-2. Well, to put it more clearly, the Loons set up a situation in which a walk and a wild pitch were all they needed to take the win at home. They did so with the only hit, not even leaving the infield—a bunt single.

Allowing the two runs scored by the Whitecaps, both of them unearned, Nicolas Cruz finished the game with a blown save as he failed to protect a 1-0 lead, but also earned the win, his second of the season. The biggest performance from the bullpen, though, came from Matt Lanzendorfer, covering 3.1 scoreless frames in relief of starter Zach Root, who didn’t even finish the third.

Class-A Ontario

Maximizing your opportunities was the theme of the Tower Buzzers’ 8-4 win over the Giants, stranding fewer than half of the baserunners that their opponents did. For the fourth time this month, Ching-Hsien Ko left the yard, and he did so in a crucial spot, hitting a three-run bomb in the fourth back when the Tower Buzzers trailed this one four-zip.

Ko was also involved in the five-run rally in the eighth, scoring one of the runs as Ontario took the lead for the first time, capitalizing on Luis Carias’ performance, who delivered five scoreless innings in relief with 16 punchouts.

Transactions

Right-handed pitcher Logan Tabeling was placed on the 7-day IL by the Great Lakes Loons. Right-handed pitchers Tyler Gough and Alvaro Benoa were sent on rehab assignments to the ACL Dodgers by Ontario.

Thursday’s scores

• Albuquerque 10, Oklahoma City 12
• Tulsa 2, Springfield 7
• Great Lakes 3, West Michigan 2
• Ontario 8, San Jose 4

Friday’s schedule

• 3:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Jakob Wright) vs. West Michigan (Carlos Marcano)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Payton Martin) vs. Springfield (Liam Doyle)
• 5:35 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (River Ryan) at Albuquerque (TBD)
• 6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (Hyun-Seok Jang) vs. San Jose (TBD)

It’s Rivalry Weekend or whatever — 15 matchups that I guess link two teams that are supposed to be rivals together.

Sometimes, this is inherently fun, like when the teams in question are basically co-located and it’s a battle-for-the-jurisdiction of sorts (Mets-Yankees, Cubs-White Sox, and I guess even Angels-Dodgers, sorta). Sometimes, it’s a bit weirder, a la Twins-Brewers. And then there are the leftover teams, including Braves-Red Sox, Diamondbacks-Rockies, and maybe Blue Jays-Tigers (though maybe you feel that one is more justified).

Would you change any of these? Keep in mind that if you do, you have to find a new set of partners as needed.

Rivalry Weekend begins tonight. Some of the matchups are obvious: you needn’t ask why the Cubs and White Sox have beef with each other (not Italian beef. Disliking each other, they would not likely share a meal of that delicious Chicago specialty). Some are not: Detroit and Toronto may be close to each other, but there’s no real rivalry between the Tigers and Blue Jays. And some are somewhere in between. The Phillies will play the Pirates at PNC Park tonight, in a matchup that was once a ferocious rivalry, but now has become a less vicious affair. But rivalry never really dies. Or does it? That’s for you to decide and debate. Today’s question is: do you consider the Pirates a rival?

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers were off yesterday.

Jeff Wilson calls the Rangers walk-off win over Arizona the kind that could spark their otherwise so-so season.

Evan Grant’s Rangers stock report focuses on Jacob deGrom heating up and the streaky Jake Burger

There isn’t much else out there besides prospect list fun. Keith Law released his top 100 draft prospects.

And Konnor Griffin graduated from MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 prospect spot, so they named a new one.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a weekend series with the hated Astros tonight at 7:10 with Jack Leiter on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

Back on Wednesday, with evening showers threatening to spoil the Orioles’ series finale against the Yankees, the mounting clouds parted, and out from the mound shone a sliver of light: Kyle Bradish and his six scoreless innings. I jest, but Bradish had started this season with an ERA above five in his first seven starts, and this return to form was a massive bit of good news.

One good outing from Bradish doesn’t change the larger picture, though, which, for this starting rotation remains rather bleak. Presumptive ace Trevor Rogers, who carried a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts last season, has a 5.77 ERA. Three other O’s starters carry an ERA above five: Shane Baz, Cade Povich, and Chris Bassitt. Three starters are on the IL, for that matter: Povich, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer.

The rotation’s failure is especially galling because the front office set expectations high this winter. O’s GM/president of baseball operations Mike Elias touted an ownership group “that’s really enabling us to invest,” and promising that “Plan A” would be finding a top-tier pitcher. Top tier meant, according to our best intel at the time, an arm ike Dylan Cease, Michael King, Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez. The Orioles were confirmed to be in hot pursuit of multiple impact starters at the winter meetings in December.

Well, Plan A turns out to have belonged to someone else. Michael King took a hometown discount to stay with the San Diego Padres, accepting three years and $75 million. Suárez landed with the Boston Red Sox on a five-year, $130 million deal. Cease went to the Toronto Blue Jays for seven years and $210 million. Valdez signed with the Detroit Tigers on a three-year, $115 million deal. After watching all four opportunities disappear, the Orioles pivoted to veteran reliability. Chris Bassitt, 37, one of the last established veterans on the free-agent market, signed a one-year, $18.5 million deal with Baltimore in mid-February.

Not to dwell, but the gamble hasn’t gone great. The Orioles starting rotation’s numbers since Opening Day tell a tough story. They have the AL’s lowest WAR and a 5.04 ERA, worse than everyone but Houston and Colorado (Houston also due to injuries, Colorado due to being Colorado). Bradish can be an ace, but he can’t lift a bottom-quartile rotation producing bottom-quartile results into a contending outfit, right?

An analysis piece about the potential for improvement held by guys like Shane Baz and Trevor Rogers would be interesting; I wanted to write instead about the pitchers the Orioles didn’t sign. Maybe that’s just sour grapes. I thought it was a question worth asking, anyway.

Snapshots of the road not taken leave some room for jealousy. Start with the best. Which makes him the worst. Dylan Cease has been superb for Toronto: a 2.41 ERA, career bests in ground ball rate and strikeout rate—and on top of that, 75 K’s to lead all qualified AL starters. Cease is, in a word or two or several, everything the Orioles could use right now.

Michael King has been a very good acquisition for San Diego in parts of three seasons. He had an excellent first year in 2024—a 2.95 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and 173 innings. And although injuries limited him to just 15 starts in 2025, the righty is on track for what may be his best season yet. The right hander has a 2.63 ERA over 51.1 innings so far, and what BaseballSavant considers one of the best changeups in the game. To be sure, there are signs of overperformance that suggest King’s numbers will settle in around his career 3.18 ERA: a somewhat inflated FIP (3.69) and mediocre strikeout numbers (50). But with his 1.6 WAR, King would lead all current Orioles players in value.

The 30-year-old Ranger Suárez started off slow for Boston, posting a 5.02 ERA through his first three starts. But now he has a 2.44 ERA and what is considered one of the best fastballs in the game. In three of eight starts so far he’s tossed a stinker, allowing four runs apiece to Houston, San Diego and New York. But two of those three are great offenses, and he’s pitched a shutout in his last three starts.

Finally, Framber Valdez. The 32-year-old lefty has been less glowing for Detroit, with a 4.32 ERA and other indicators trending in the wrong direction. He posted a 3.67 ERA in six starts in April, but he got absolutely rocked in Boston a week-and-a-half ago, allowing seven runs in three innings. In particular, there’s evidence of concerning velocity dips on Valdez’s heaters. Based on ERA+, this is the first time since 2019 that Valdez is a below-average pitcher.

Would one of them have fixed Baltimore’s rotation? Yes, and it’s not even a hard question. Put it in terms of WAR. Cease, King, Suárez and Valdez each has a bWAR between 0.4 to 1.8. Right now, the only O’s starter who’s healthy and has a positive WAR is Kyle Bradish (0.1): all the rest are in the red. Thus, in WAR-terms, each of the four sought-after candidates would have made the rotation better; more, each would be the best starter on the staff.

Would the Orioles have paid this kind of money for any of them? This notoriously tight-fisted team really stretched itself over the offseason with $60-plus million extensions for Shane Baz and Samuel Basallo. Only King, whose team-friendly deal was probably only possible given his injuries the season before, would have been in the ballpark, so to speak.

Maybe that shows the limitations of this team’s approach to signing pitching. Maybe the Orioles were true players for these arms, and saw things they didn’t like. Maybe it was reasonable for them to presume, after Trevor Rogers’ ace-like season last year, that he and Bradish needed only a supporting cast to lead this outfit. But the rotation thus far has been in desperate need of someone who can give the team a reliable win every five days and keep the bullpen from working itself into the ground. As currently constructed, the rotation has room to grow, and a much higher ceiling than they’ve shown so far, but an ace might have papered over some of those cracks, and given this team room for error.

Happy Friday, everyone! Well, it’s been a dismal week to be a Tigers fan, that’s for sure. They were swept by the Mets, which is the first time all season the Mets have swept anyone. But they’re home again, they’re facing the Blue Jays this weekend, and hopefully they have some wins ahead.

If we want to look at the positive, though, we’re spotlighting our choice for Rookie of the Year, Kevin McGongile below, who continues to amaze us and prove he’s no fluke. In terms of broader baseball news, we discuss the CBA, the Rays stadium deal, jail time for Yasiel Puig, and Cy Young chatter around Shohei Ohtani.

Let’s just get right into it.

Detroit Tigers News

• This kid is good.

• He also joined the Have a Seat podcast to chat about his incredible debut.

• We see you, Riley Greene.

AL Central News

• Very scary news from a recent White Sox game.

• Excuse me, the White Sox are a .500 team now?
• The Twins are sending Matt Wallner to Triple-A.

MLB News

• Where do things currently stand with the CBA and a potential salary cap?
• This quiz to help select your perfect MLB team is very scientific and not at all silly. (I got the Royals! Let us know who you ended up with).
• Is Yandy Diaz one of the most underappreciated hitters in baseball?
• Jay Jaffe writes a joint memorial for Ted Turner and Bobby Cox and their impact on baseball.
• A little Fangraphs tangent about arm strength.
• Some injury updates from around MLB.
• What exactly is the “Tito Speedo” and how did it help turn things around for the Reds?
• Another May trade, this time between the A’s and the Mariners.
• Shohei Ohtani’s insane 0.82 ERA is sparking some Cy Young chatter.
• SI ranks all 30 MLB teams into watchability tiers and the Tigers land about where you would imagine.
• Yasiel Puig might be facing jail time over federal charges.
• The Rays have a tentative deal in place for their new stadium.
• Corey Seager is trying to “figure it out” amid a terrible slump.
• How are the father-son Mattingly duo in Philadelphia embracing their unexpected season? ($)
• We love a good baseball superstition. Cal Raleigh, before his injury, apparently busted his slump by showering in his uniform. ($)
• This is such a cool idea, honestly.