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Two National League contenders collide as the Los Angeles Dodgers (-178) host the Milwaukee Brewers this evening. 

L.A.'s bullpen imploded in the series opener, and the Boys in Blue have been a vastly overvalued commodity this month.

Find out why I'm bullish on Robert Gasser in my Brewers vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 14.

Who will win Brewers vs Dodgers tonight: Brewers moneyline (+165)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a great team, but they haven't been playing like one lately. 

Dave Roberts' squad is in a prolonged slump (89 wRC+ this month). Pair that with a faulty bullpen (4.81 xFIP) that cost them Thursday's series opener, and it's evident why they've dropped nine of their last 13 games. 

The market is still pricing them like the World Series odds favorite Death Star they're typically viewed as, but it's the dog days of August, and this team is going through it.

I'd play the Milwaukee Brewers down to +160.

COVERS INTEL:Robert Gasser has seen a three-point increase in Stuff+ and a nine-point increase in Location+ since July 1.

Brewers vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-103)

Neither lineup has been hitting with aplomb, ranking 20th (L.A.) and 21st (Milwaukee) in wRC+ this month. 

Given the Dodgers' bullpen struggles, they'll hope for a lengthy outing from Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He's in great form, posting a 2.12 ERA and 0.83 WHIP since May 18 while limiting hitters to a .167 AVG.

The recent uptick in Gasser's Pitching+ metrics is notable, and it's difficult for markets to price that effectively. He's been hurling his four-seamer (109 Stuff+), sinker (107), and slider (128) all well above average in his last six outings. 

The bullpen behind him has been fantastic (3.10 SIERA, 3.28 xFIP this month), so Milwaukee has a strong chance of run suppression.

Brewers vs Dodgers home run prediction: Teoscar Hernandez (+474)

Nine of the 11 home runs Gasser has surrendered have been by right-handed hitters. He surrenders 1.8 home runs per nine innings against righties, so that's who to look for on a night where the wind is blowing out (8-10 mph) to dead center.

Teoscar Hernandez has a 121 wRC+ and .179 ISO against southpaws, so he's a strong culprit to dole out damage. He's a bit undervalued after slumping throughout July, and he's shown signs of the old Teoscar in August (.194 ISO).

Brewers vs Dodgers weather

It's decently warm, and the wind is blowing out to dead center.

Brewers vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Brewers +170 | Dodgers -178
• Run line: Brewers +1.5 (-133) | Dodgers -1.5 (+122)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Brewers vs Dodgers trend

The Brewers are 8-1 in Gasser's last nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Brewers vs Dodgers and game info

Brewers vs Dodgers latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

This is going to be a quick one. I watched this game for about three innings before heading off with my family for dinner. Boy, did I pick a good one to miss. I basically announced I was trust falling with this team yesterday and then I splatted into this game. Yuck.

The Cubs offense was missing in action Thursday afternoon. The pitching wasn’t much better. Kevin Gausman started well, but didn’t sustain. Remember that one awful David Peterson start? He’s been awfully good besides that. Bad games are gonna happen. One on a Thursday afternoon on the way out of town isn’t going to ruffle my feathers.

This team has finally played enough good ball that you can look at a game like this and just tear the page off of the calendar and keep on trucking. We’re a savvy group around here. No one has to be reminded that good pitching, when it is executing the game plan, is basically going to always win. It has to be both. You have to have very good pitching and you have to have a very good plan. On Thursday, the Nats had both. The Cubs were tarred and feathered.

Not a lot of fun. Moving along.

Three Positives:

• Michael Busch had a single.
• Dansby Swanson drew two walks.
• Aaron Civale threw 3.1 innings and gave the other seven relievers a day off.

Game 122, August 13: Nationals 7, Cubs 0 (71-51)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Aaron Civale (.006). 3.1 IP, 13 BF, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 R, K
• Hero: Tyrone Taylor (.000). 0-1
• Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (-.012). 0-1, 2 BB

A negative WPA game makes a rare appearance on the hero podium.

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Kevin Gausman (-.189). 4.2 IP, 22 BF, 7 H, BB, 6 R, 7 K (L 1-1)
• Goat: Alex Bregman (-.060). 0-3
• Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.056). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: Dylan Crews batted with a runner on first and one out in the fourth, the game scoreless. He had an RBI-double. (.143)

Cubs Play of the Game: With the Cubs trailing by one in the fifth, there were runners on first and third and no outs in the fifth. Kevin Gausman struck out Keibert Ruiz. (.052)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 121 Winner: Alex Bregman with 90 of 92 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +28
• Alex Bregman +20
• Carson Kelly +14.5
• Shōta Imanaga +14
• Trent Thornton +13.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Nico Hoerner -11
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Dansby Swanson -18
• Caleb Thielbar -19.5

Up Next: Back to sweet home Chicago, where the Cubs are 35-24. They’ll start a three-game set with the Cardinals ,who are 61-60. The Cardinals had the luxury of an off day Thursday after a day game Wednesday at home. That’s a pretty friendly setup for them. Clay Holmes (4-5, 2.86) will make his second start as a Cub and second start since getting off of the injured list. The first wasn’t great. He pitched against the Cardinals back in March as a member of the Mets and won, allowing two runs on four hits in 5.2 innings. More of that please.

Lefty Matthew Liberatore (5-9, 5.15) starts for the Cardinals. He’s been a bit better of late, but still not winning games (2-4, 4.25, 36 IP) over his last seven. Last time out, he allowed five runs in five innings in a loss to the Rockies. On July 27, the Cubs posted three earned runs on eight hits and two walks in just 3.2 innings. They also got four runs (three earned) in five innings against him in Chicago on July 5. So he’s 1-2 in three starts. More of that, please, too.

Start a good home stand off on the right foot.

The San Diego Padres just completed a run of 26 games in 27 days, the last 16 of which were played without a day off. The Padres got a much-needed day off on Thursday before they open a three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians tonight.

Michael King has had an up-and-down season thanks to some command and control issues, but he has worked to a 3.37 ERA on the year. In his last outing against the Houston Astros, King delivered a six-inning performance where he allowed one run on three hits and earned a win.

The Padres will need another similar outing from the right-hander if they want to continue the momentum they built over a 5-1 homestand that saw them sweep the Milwaukee Brewers. King could set the tone for the six-game road trip which starts with three games in Cleveland and ends with three games in New York against the New York Mets. The Friar Faithful hope that is a positive tone, but if King is not on his game, it would go the other way.

San Diego opens its road trip and three-game set against Cleveland today at 4:10 p.m.

Padres News:

• Jagger Haynes had a good showing in his recent outing with the El Paso Chihuahuas.

• Steven Souza Jr. was the target of several complaints from the Friar Faithful due to the poor offensive start for San Diego, but now both are showing signs of progress in the second half of the season.

Baseball News:

• Philadelphia Phillies dominant Minnesota Twins in the cornfields of Iowa.

• The Cincinnati Reds win heated matchup with Chicago White Sox.

• Payton Tolle throws eight scoreless innings to lead the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays.

• The Seattle Mariners edged out the New York Yankees for a 1-0 win.

• Cade Cavalli pitched the Washington Nationals past the Chicago Cubs.

• The Detroit Tigers got a shutout win over the Cleveland Guardians.

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Tampa Bay’s 41-18 home record and nine-game win streak make the Rays tough to fade against a slumping Baltimore club.

The Tampa Bay Rays own the best record in baseball at 74-46, and they host the Baltimore Orioles tonight as a -155 home favorite, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field.

That dominance is the backbone of my Orioles vs. Rays predictions, which back Tampa Bay on the moneyline, lean Over the total, and target a Baltimore bat to go deep.

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 14.

Who will win Orioles vs Rays today: Rays moneyline (-161)

Kyle Bradish gives the Baltimore Orioles the better traditional starter, but the Tampa Bay Rays are playing too well to fade at home. The Rays enter on a nine-game winning streak and a 9-1 mark over their last 10, and they've been even tougher at Tropicana Field, going 41-18 at home against Baltimore’s 26-33 road record.

Tampa Bay owns the stronger offense on the season, and even Bradish’s 3.69 ERA leaves openings against a lineup this locked in right now. Meanwhile, Baltimore comes in scuffling after losing five of its last seven and hitting just .231 over the team's previous 10 games.

With the Rays scorching at the plate and holding one of baseball’s biggest home-road splits, I’m comfortable laying the price despite the pitching disadvantage. I’d play Tampa to -165.

COVERS INTEL: Bradish is more vulnerable than his record suggests, with opponents slugging .524 against his slider, his second-most-used pitch, and .393 against his four-seam fastball.

Orioles vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)

There are enough weak points in this pitching matchup to take the Over at plus money, starting with Steven Matz. He carries a 5.46 ERA, was pulled from Tampa Bay’s rotation earlier this season after his velocity dipped, and the hurler worked out of the bullpen on Wednesday. Kevin Cash is unlikely to give him a long leash.

Both offenses can move the line in a hurry. Tampa has scored 30 runs over its last three games, including 10, 12, and eight against the Athletics, while Baltimore has put up five runs in each of its last three. The Orioles’ bullpen adds another route to late scoring, entering with a 6.65 ERA over the last seven days.

At 8.5 and +109, I don’t need both starters to implode. Matz’s volatility plus an exploitable Orioles bullpen will get us there organically. I’d play the Over down to -110.

Orioles vs Rays home run prediction: Tyler O'Neil (+388)

Tyler O’Neill has rediscovered his power stroke, and a matchup with left-hander Steven Matz is a great chance to keep it going. O’Neill has homered three times in his last 10 games, including a 425-foot blast against Texas on Sunday, and his production against lefties has been taking off.

Since June 1, O’Neill is hitting .357 against left-handers with an .875 slugging percentage and eight home runs in just 62 plate appearances. Matz is the ideal target for him, as the Rays' lefty has allowed 12 home runs this year, with 10 coming against righties. His sinker, which he throws nearly half the time, carries a -9 Statcast run value.

O’Neill has always punished southpaws, slugging .750 against them during his 31-homer 2024 season, and that part of his game is clearly back. At +340, I’ll take a shot on the power continuing against a pitcher this vulnerable to right-handed home runs. I’d play this to +300 for a quarter unit.

Orioles vs Rays weather

Tropicana Field is a fixed-dome ballpark, so weather is a non-factor tonight. Conditions stay controlled with no wind or precipitation in play, meaning the Over and the O’Neill home run bet come down entirely to the pitching matchups rather than the elements.

Orioles vs Rays odds

• Moneyline: Baltimore +140 | Tampa Bay -161
• Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-168) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+109) | Under 8.5 (-121)

Orioles vs Rays trend

The Tampa Bay Rays rank first in MLB in batting average (.261), fifth in on-base percentage (.331), and sixth in OPS (.739), with the Rays boasting a top-tier offense that powers both the moneyline and the Over. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Rays.

How to watch Orioles vs Rays and game info

Orioles vs Rays latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

There is a lot to be negative about round these parts right now—the O’s have lost three of four series, find themselves last in the AL East, and seem ready to change the channel to 2027. I don’t need to perseverate. But this post is a conscious choice to focus on the positive.

And one undeniable bright spot this season has been Brandon Young, the 6’6” Texan bound for Triple-A this spring and not expected to play a role in the rotation.

Well, now he’s arguably the best starter in a rotation that’s actually been decent this season. Young doesn’t have the stuff or talent of Shane Baz, Trevor Rogers, or Kyle Bradish, but he leads them all in bWAR (1.9), wins (9, a throwback stat, I know), ERA (3.33), and ERA+ (124).

Not bad for a depth arm not expected to play a role with the Major League team.

Especially given how bad Young’s 2025 season was. The righty had one glorious moment, a near-perfect game against his hometown Houston Astros, where he tossed eight shutout innings and allowed just one hit. But besides that, he was bad: he went 1-7 with a 6.24 ERA, a -0.7 WAR, and a 65 ERA+.

Well, year over year, Young has made a drastic change. The arsenal is different, and the individual pitches are better. Easy to say, hard to do.

Arsenal changes first. In 2025, Young threw six pitches, in order of usage: four-seamer, splitter, curveball, cutter, slider, and changeup. Three of those were simply unplayable. The split-finger was ranked one of the worst in the league, in run value. The cutter got hit at a .429 clip and slugged .857, a pitch Young never recorded a strikeout with all year. The changeup was even worse: hitters batted .625 and slugged 1.000 against it. The latter two are gone entirely from his 2026 mix.

In their place, Young added a new pitch, a sinker, has remade his splitter entirely, and has leaned harder on his slider. His 2026 five-pitch mix, by usage, now runs four-seamer (39.8%), splitter (19.8%), slider (15.3%), sinker (13.5%), and curveball (11.7%). Trimming from six pitches to five let him funnel his offerings into fewer shapes, and the results show it.

Start with the fastball. Young is throwing it about 1.7 mph harder on average this year (94.2 mph, up from 92.5), and it now grades as one of the better heaters in baseball: a 95th-percentile pitch by run value, up from the 30th percentile a year ago. That added velocity buys him a lot of margin, looks like.

The slider is another breakout. In 2025 it was a middling, rarely-used fourth or fifth option, generating just a 19.4% whiff rate and a 10.5% strikeout rate on pitches that ended at-bats. In 2026, it’s a weapon: a 41.1% whiff rate and a 40.5% strikeout rate, by far his best swing-and-miss pitch. Young is throwing it nearly twice as often as he did last year, and hitters simply aren’t squaring it up.

Then there’s the splitter, the new one. As the story goes, on May, after a rough start in Washington, Young was approached by several pitching coaches about trying an entirely new grip. Well, it worked, a totally different pitch from the one he threw last season and in his first six starts of 2026: about five miles lower, with very different spin and much more vertical break. Results have been good with the new grip so far.

The brand-new sinker, well, looks like it’s work in progress. Batters are hitting .324 and slugging .486 against it, but he has, interestingly, used it pretty often as a putaway pitch. Might be worth seeing what the fate of the Brandon Young sinker is. The curveball, finally, a true holdover from last season, has is somewhat improved, too.

There’s surely more to say about the Brandon Young renaissance (including that he’s lately shown signs of fatigue that need to be watched), but it’s worth giving credit to the big righty for something so rare: he went from essentially a AAAA option last season to the team’s most reliable starter option this one. He’s not just skating by, either, cheating the data: his fastball is one of the best in the league right now in run value, he’s 81st percentile in chase rate, and the hard contact against him has plummeted. The lesson? By scrapping his two worst pitches, sharpening his best one, and adding a jolt of fastball velocity, Young has turned himself from an emergency call-up into the answer at the top of a taxed Orioles rotation. If nothing else this season, that’s worth appreciating.

Columbus Clippers 2, Omaha Storm Chasers 8

Clippers fall to 61-54

Offense was hard to come by for Columbus as the lone two runs came on a pair of solo home runs.

Ralphy Velazquez went 1-for-3 with an inside the park home run and a walk. Kyle Manzardo also homered and walked.

No one else reached base safely twice or had an extra base hit, although Kody Huff walked and stole a base.

Starting pitcher Yorman Gomez allowed four runs on six hits in 4.0 innings. He struggled with his control, walking four and striking out just one.

Jack Leftwich allowed two runs on five hits in just 1.1 innings of relief. Jack Jasiak had the lone scoreless outing for the pitching staff, tossing a scoreless ninth inning with two strikeouts.

Akron RubberDucks 4, Altoona Curve 2

RubberDucks improve to 54-56

Three different players had multi-hit games for Akron in a strong all-around showing.

Aaron Walton was terrific, going 2-for-5 with a double and a stolen base.

Dean Curley was even better, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk while Jaison Chourio went 2-for-4 with a walk and two stolen bases.

The biggest story of the game was the fact that Braylon Doughty was back on the mound after a brief trip on the injured list. He returned with a vengeance, tossing 3.0 scoreless innings with two hits, two walks and one strikeout.

Dylan DeLucia followed with 3.0 innings of long relief, allowing two runs on three hits and three walks, but the rest of the bullpen slammed the door. Zane Morehouse tossed a scoreless inning and Carter Rustad was superb, finishing the game with 2.0 perfect scoreless innings and a pair of strikeouts to earn his third save.

Lake County Captains 1, Dayton Dragons 3 (Game 1)
Lake County Captains 4, Dayton Dragons 3 (Game 2)

Captains move to 58-50

In game one, Welbyn Francisca was the lone offensive standout, going 1-for-2 with a double and a walk.

Starting pitcher Jackson Humphries was decent, allowing three runs on five hits in 4.2 innings while striking out four and walking one. Zane Petty was excellent out of the bullpen, tossing 2.1 scoreless innings of relief to close out the game and striking out four.

Game two was an opportunity for Jeffrey Mercedes and Luis De La Cruz to shine. Mercedes went 2-for-3 with his 11th home run while De La Cruz went 2-for-4 with his first home run at High-A since being promoted recently. Riley Nelson went 1-for-3 with a walk and Cannon Peebles walked twice.

Starting pitcher Harrison Bodendorf allowed two runs on five hits in 4.1 innings. He struck out three and walked four. Logan McGuire allowed one run in 1.2 innings of long relief and Conner Whittaker finished off the game with a scoreless inning to earn the win.

Hill City Howlers 4, Myrtle Beach Pelicans 11

Howlers fall to 47-64

No one on Hill City had a multi-hit game, although Jonathan Martinez walked a whopping four times and stole a base.

Gabriel Rodriguez doubled, hit a sacrifice fly and stole a base and Alejandro Blasco went 1-for-2 with a walk after coming in the game halfway through it.

Starting pitcher Ryan Prager allowed four runs on six hits with two walks and five strikeouts in 4.0 innings. Luis Fernandez followed with 2.0 innings of scoreless relief.

Unfortunately, Javi Torres got lit up for six runs on four hits and a walk in just 0.2 innings to put the game out of reach.

The Braves are 8-3 in August so far. That’s really good, and even better than when they went 22-10 through the end of April.

That sad, they have 17 more games. They need to go 20-8 to beat their through-April record, which means 12-5. That’s a tall order!

The schedule is also weird slash daunting for the rest of the month:

• Diamondbacks at home (3)
• Twins on road (3)
• Make-up game against White Sox on road (1)
• Brewers on road (3)
• Dodgers at home (3)
• Rockies at home (3)
• Make-up against Giants at home (1)

That’s two series, back to back, against what are likely baseball’s best two teams. Plus, two make-up games, two other series against contenders, and another road set. The only reprieve is playing the Rockies at home.

Here’s a reason why the Braves probably won’t hit 20-8 and have their best month yet: if you take game-by-game odds and take the ones they’re projected to win, that’s how you get to 12-5. So, by default, adding up the individual odds will be lower (which isn’t surprising, but it is what it is). Basically, for the Braves to outdo April in August, even with their 8-3 start to the month, they’ll need to win every game they’re favored in for the rest of the month. That means sweeping the Diamondbacks and Twins, taking a series from the Dodgers, and then sweeping the Rockies and taking that make-up game against the Giants. But, getting swept by the Brewers is also baked in there.

Again, a tall order. Can they do it?

The Field of Dreams game last night was a rousing success for the Phillies, as they were able to beat the Twins by a score of 7-1. First, legends of the game emerged from the signature Dyersville, Iowa cornfield, including some from Phillies history such as Mike Schmidt and Steve Carlton. Once the game began, Kyle Schwarber mashed a majestic home run on the third pitch he saw, sending the ball deep into the Iowan cornfield surrounding the diamond. He later added a second corn bomb, in the fourth, this time with Brandon Marsh on base. Speaking of Marsh, he added a two run homer of his own in the seventh that gave the Phillies their comfortable 7-1 lead.

Aaron Nola meanwhile pitched five solid innings and collected nine strikeouts. Three Phillies relievers were able to successfully bridge the gap to Jhoan Duran who retired the side on 16 pitches despite it not being a save situation.

After a week of disheartening and rather frustrating baseball, the Phillies were able to show at least for one night that they can be a good team that’s worthy of playing on a national stage such as this one. Some cinematic scenery certainly didn’t hurt one’s ability to forgot some of the heartache caused earlier in the week.

So, what did you think of the Field of Dreams game?

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees hit the road to take on the Blue Jays in a three-game series starting Friday...

AL East battle

Toronto has had a tough season. After being so close to capturing a World Series title a year ago, the Blue Jays find themselves entering this series below .500 (59-64) and on the outside looking in on the postseason.

However, Toronto has played much better of late. They are 6-4 in their last 10 and just took three of four from Boston. This stretch has allowed Toronto to climb within 2.0 games of the third and final Wild Card spot. 

Can the Yankees put Toronto's playoff hopes on ice, or will they give them life like they did the Red Sox? 

The Yanks need these games just as much as Toronto. Although they are firmly in the first Wild Card spot, they can't allow the Red Sox to get close -- they enter Friday three games up on Boston -- and are 6.5 games behind Tampa for the AL East crown. 

Cy Young battle

The top two AL pitchers vying for the Cy Young are Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease. 

Schlittler was the favorite for much of this season, but Cease has come on of late, pitching deep into games and piling up the strikeouts. Both will have their next starts in this series. And while they are currently not scheduled to pitch against each other, they will look to boost their Cy Young credentials this weekend.

Schlittler struck out 11 and allowed one run across seven innings in his last start against the Braves, while Cease struck out seven and allowed three runs in five innings against the Red Sox. 

There's also the All-Star starter "controversy" when Blue Jays manager John Schneider -- managing the AL side -- was going to peg Cease to start the game over Schlittler, but the Yankees ace took himself out of the running once he got wind of it. This could be a chance for Schlittler to show the Jays skipper what he can do.

Spencer Jones' continued development

While George Lombard Jr. is getting the headlines for what he's done in his short stint with the club, Jones is quietly becoming a productive player.

Yankees skipper Aaron Boone has slotted Jones into the three-hole the last few games and it's paid off, with Jones coming through with runners on base in the first two games of the Mariners series.

And while he went hitless in the series finale on Thursday, Jones is looking more and more comfortable as he stacks starts. Can he continue to put up quality ABs and play good outfield defense in Toronto?

Can the Yankees offense wake up?

Yankees pitching has done its part, but the offense continues to be inconsistent.

There was some life from the lineup against Seattle, with New York scoring 10 runs in the middle game of the series, but the Yanks were shut out in the finale on Thursday. 

Which version of the Yankees will show up this weekend? 

Deadline bats not doing their part

Luis Garcia Jr. and Heliot Ramos were brought over to infuse some life into the lineup. And while they've been solid, they need to do more. Garcia, especially. 

After having the best OPS in the NL when he was with the Nationals, it has not been the same since he donned the pinstripes. He's slashing .258/.303/.452 with an OPS of .755, one home run, three doubles and two RBI in eight games with the Yankees. Decent, but New York needs more power from the left-hander.

Ramos is simply lost. He's slashing .080/.233/.160 with an OPS of .393 in eight games with the Yanks, and was benched in the series finale against the Mariners. 

Can they turn it around?

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Ben Rice

It's hard to pick any player right now, but Rice needs to shoulder the offensive load until reinforcements arrive.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best start?

Cam Schlittler

Schlittler has his best starts when he's motivated to prove people wrong. He'll do that against Schneider and the Jays.

Which Blue Jays player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Ernie Clement

The infielder always gives the Yankees fits. He has 33 hits with two homers and 17 RBI in 35 games against the Yankees in his career.

The very best stats are mirror images of each other. Last time we looked at offensive efficiency and it only makes perfect sense to turn around and look at defensive efficiency. When we look at both halves we get a much clearer picture as to how good a team really is and whether there are any hidden gems in there that could make noise come playoff time.

So, if you did not catch that particular article, I would strongly suggest going back and taking a look at it. Essentially, efficiency is rated by taking total runs scored or allowed and dividing it into hits, walks, and hit by pitches. We will make the same adjustment with home runs that we made with the offensive numbers to see what happens. As you might imagine, the Astros are near the bottom of this one as their units have served as mirror images for much of the season. Statistics are accurate coming into play on Wednesday.

Let’s start local and move our way out. The Astros pitching staff has been awful overall on the season, but as we saw in an earlier lab, most of that came in March and April. They are 13th in the American League in runs allowed over the full season, so it shouldn’t be any surprise that they are one of the worst teams in terms of efficiency. I’ll just say that the Athletics numbers are staggering on so many levels, but the rest of the league looks normal with one notable exception.

When I looked at the offensive chart, I noticed that the Rays were not nearly as efficient as they could be. We see the same thing here on the pitching end. They rest near the bottom in efficiency even though their overall record in terms of runs scored says they should be much better. I’m not a betting man, but if I were I might put a wager on them come playoff time because that is a baseball team that’s underlying numbers are much better than they are actually performing.

As for the hometown nine, they are 2nd in walks allowed and first in hit batsman. Thank God for the Angels because otherwise it wouldn’t even be close when we combine those two together. Eight AL teams have surrendered more hits than the Astros. So, when you look at raw ability, they should be in the middle of the pack and that is what we have seen from May 1st on.

As we saw with the offensive numbers, home runs dramatically impacts efficiency, so we should expect to see the same thing on the pitching side. So, what we are doing is simply removing home runs from the total base runners column and from the runs scored column (assuming solo shots for now) to see what happens to the efficiency rating.

The Red Sox and Athletics are really mirror images of each other. Neither is historically bad or good compared to the very best and worst seasons on the bump (2018 and 2022 Astros are at the top since the DH). However, since this is an Astros site, we should focus in on the hometown nine. They are slightly better comparatively when we remove the home runs.

One of the things to come out “Moneyball” was the development of something called the “Beane count”. It was a crude metric where you compared the amount of home runs hit and home runs surrendered along with walks drawn and walks surrendered. In most seasons, if you are on the positive end of both of those then you probably have a pretty good baseball team. The opposite is obviously true as well. So, the Beane count for the Astros looks like this:

Home Runs: 162 for, 164 against = -2 HR
Walks: 411 for, 504 against = -93 walks

These numbers predict that the Astros should not be a good team and when you look at the Pythagorean record you can see that the Astros currently sit at 58-64. For those unfamiliar, the Pythagorean record takes the runs scored and runs allowed and spits out an expected record. The Astros have surrendered more runs than they have scored, so they should not be above .500. Of course, there are any number of factors that could credibly explain why teams overperform or underperform. Some of those tend towards the luck end of the spectrum while others are structural with things like bullpen performance and other factors.

The Beane count is crude and it seems easy enough to say hit more dingers and walk more, but turning things around can be that simple. In the Astros case, they probably need to work on the pitching end of that equation. In particular, being 29th in walks allowed is not acceptable. Adding in being 30th in hit batters is also not a good thing. It will be interesting to see what happens at the end of the year when we look at these numbers again.

Hickory starter Evan Siary went 5.2 innings, allowing two runs, striking out six and walking two. Michael Trausch struck out one and walked one in 1.2 scoreless innings.

Yolfran Castillo was 2 for 5 with a sotlen base. Marco Argudin homered and walked. Pablo Guerrero had a double and two walks. Kaden Carpenter had a homer and a walk. Jay McQueen had three hits and a stolen base. Sebastian Baquer had a pair of hits. Curley Martha had a hit.

Hickory box score

Kamdyn Perry went 4.2 innings for Hub City, allowing a solo homer, walking three and striking out three. J’Briell Easley allowed two runs in 1.1 IP, walking one and striking out one.

Gleider Figuereo had a double. Paxton Kling had a pair of walks and a stolen base.

Hub City box score

Frisco starter Dylan MacLean allowed five runs in 1.1 IP, including two homers, walking one and striking out two.

Rafe Perich was 2 for 4 with a double and a homer. Dylan Dreiling was 2 for 5 with a double and a homer. Sebastian Walcott had a pair of doubles. Malcolm Moore had a hit. Arturo Disla had a double and a walk.

Frisco box score

Rehabbing Jack Leiter started for Round Rock, striking out three and walking one while using 48 pitches to throw 2.2 scoreless innings. Marc Church retired the one batter he faced. Dalton Pence allowed two runs in three innings, walking three and striking out two. Emiliano Teodo threw 37 pitches, 22 of them for strikes, while facing seven batters. He walked one of them and struck out the other six.

Rehabbing Danny Jansen was 1 for 3 and caught six innings. Logan O’Hoppe doubled.

Round Rock box score

DSL Rangers Red

DSL Rangers Blue

Meet the Mets

Luis Robert Jr. has kept his hot streak alive post-deadline, showing that maybe he should have garnered more interest than he did.

Jon Heyman presented a blueprint for bringing the Mets back to contention as the Tarik Skubal chase looms large for New York.

Anthony DiComo took to Reddit to answer some Mets-related questions.

Laura Albanese answered some Mets-related questions.

The Mets could look to pursue Hanshin Tigers star 3B Teruaki Sato to fill their glaring void at first base.

Howie Rose reflected on 40 years in the radio booth ahead of his impending retirement.

Joe DeMayo did a deep dive on Mets’ prospect Sammy Stafura.

Around the National League East

The Phillies dominated Twins in the Field of Dreams game, 7-1. Kyle Schwarber hit two home runs in the victory in Iowa.

Bryce Harper dressed the part with his head-to-toe corn-themed apparel.

Schwarber and Harper were excited to see some corn in last night’s Field of Dreams game.

Bryson Stott wore custom Field of Dreams cleats for the game.

The Phillie Phanatic made the most of his field trip to Iowa.

Cade Cavalli carried a no-hitter into the seventh and pitched eight one-hit innings with ten strikeouts to lead the Nationals past the Cubs 7-0.

The Marlins were walloped 13-1 by the Pirates.

Around Major League Baseball

Contenders’ aces filled up the latest Starting Pitcher Power Rankings.

Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens aimed to put Tarik Skubal back on the Tigers.

The Rays signed infielder Jorge Mateo to a major league contract.

The Red Sox placed set-up man Garrett Whitlock on the injured list and recalled Greg Weissert from Triple-A.

Boston got back in the win column with a 7-0 shutout victory against the Blue Jays. Payton Tolle’s gem played a big role in the win, as he struck out 14 batters.

Behind Logan Gilbert’s gem, the Mariners blanked the Yankees 1-0 to halt their losing streak. Max Fried continued rolling for the Yankees despite the loss.

The Tigers blanked the Guardians 3-0 without striking out a single batter, the first time an MLB team has accomplished the feat since the 2014 Tigers.

Yesterday’s Reds vs. White Sox game featured a benches clearing ball and Chicago starter David Martin getting ejected after plunking Sal Stewart. In the end, cooler heads prevailed, and the Reds emerged victorious by a 9-8 score.

The Angels blanked the Rangers 7-0. Mike Trout turned it back to 2018 with another big night.

Edwin Díaz blew his fourth save of the year and his third in one week (his ERA ballooned to 11.57 on the season) as the Dodgers fell 5-4 to the Brewers. On the bright side for LA, Max Muncy passed Eric Karros for home runs at Dodgers stadium with Karros on the call.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Allison McCague, Linda Surovich, and Maggie Wiggin talked about the Mets being a slightly more watchable disaster on the newest episode of A Pod of Their Own.

This Date in Mets History

Stephen Matz carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning in a 5-1 Mets victory over the Padres on this date in 2016.

Following a dance with the Mariners at home, the Yankees are heading north of the border for a three-game set with a largely struggling Toronto club. Despite looking up at a significant deficit in the AL East standings, the Blue Jays are at least playing some decent ball of late, winning five of their last seven games and on the heels of a four-game set with the Red Sox, of which they won three.

The Yankees have been doing enough to get by of late, and will head into this East matchup with some of their best pitching on tap. They’ll have hope the bats can do enough to support the likes of Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler and take a few games from the middling Jays.

Friday: Gerrit Cole vs. Shane Bieber (7:15pm Eastern)

Cole will make his 15th start of the season to kick things off in Toronto, as the 2023 Cy Young Award winner will look to continue a stretch of very solid starts. He is boasting a respectable 3.35 ERA and a 3.36 FIP to match in his 80.2 innings thus far. In his last three outings, the veteran has punched out 21 batters in 18.2 innings, while allowing just three runs in that stretch. Since his late start to the season, Cole has been largely himself outside of a couple of duds, and will hope to keep the good stuff pumping on Friday.

He’ll square off with 2020 Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, who has not quite enjoyed the same fate this season. Once one of the more promising pitchers in baseball, with a world-class ability to rack up Ks, Bieber has suffered multiple lost seasons in a row due to injury, and has reached new lows in 2026. The righty made his season debut in late June, and has a FIP approaching six in just over 40 innings. While he’s had a handful of good outings, plenty of bad ones have been sprinkled in as well. Bieber is coming off of five earned runs and a pair of homers in 5.2 innings against the Phillies.

Saturday: Cam Schlittler vs. TBD (3:07pm Eastern)

The Yankees will follow up their veteran stud with their young one, as Cam Schlittler makes his way to the bump on Saturday. The 25-year-old has been a true force this season, leading the American League in fWAR and posting the lowest ERA across the fourth-most innings in all of baseball. He is a legitimate Cy Young contender, and has been a joy to watch this season. His latest outing saw him go seven strong innings, allowing just one run while striking out 11. Schlittler has allowed three earned runs across 13 innings of work against the Jays this season.

For the Jays on Saturday, things are still up in the air as far as the starter goes. Simeon Woods-Richardson (10 starts this year), and Lazaro Estrada, who’s bounced around different levels in 2026, are possible options for the Jays.

Sunday: Ryan Weathers vs. Dylan Cease (1:37pm Eastern)

In Sunday’s finale, Ryan Weathers will be making his 24th start of the season for the Yankees. On the whole, the lefty has been good for New York, posting solid ERA and FIP marks in the mid-threes, while striking out more than a batter per inning in a fairly full workload. The 26-year-old southpaw has had the good stuff of late, as he’s allowed just a pair of earned runs to cross in 24.1 innings over his last four starts on the mound. While he may not carry the weight of a Cole or Schlittler, Weathers has been a major contributor to this team, and will close things out in Toronto.

The Blue Jays also have a strong Cy Young candidate, Dylan Cease, who projects to take the mound on Sunday afternoon. The righty has always been a very high-ceiling hurler, but we are seeing perhaps the best of him in 2026. His 2.41 FIP is tops in the AL, and he’s striking out a whopping 36.1 percent of batters. A first-year Blue Jay, having signed a nine-figure deal, Cease is proving his worth every fifth day for Toronto, and the Yankee lineup will have their hands full wrapping things up for the series. In his last outing against the Yankees back in May, New York tagged him with five runs and a pair of long balls as the possible Cy Young favorite took the loss.

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The Boston Red Sox head into tonight's series opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates as the -127 moneyline favorites behind left-hander Jake Bennett. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at PNC Park. 

While Bubba Chandler has pitched well, my Red Sox vs Pirates predictions are backing Bennett to outduel the right-hander. 

Find more in my MLB picks for Friday, August 14. 

Who will win Red Sox vs Pirates today: Red Sox (-126)

Jake Bennett has been brilliant for the Boston Red Sox this season, posting a 3.21 xERA over his last five appearances while allowing just 0.62 HR/9 and limiting walks.

He has also held opponents to a 3.2% barrel rate over the last month, which matters against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that struggles badly against lefties. Pittsburgh owns an 89 wRC+ versus southpaws compared to an 111 mark vs. righties.

Bubba Chandler is in good form with a 2.65 FIP across his previous two outings, but the hurler's 5.91 xERA and 43.3% hard-hit rate during that span show vulnerability. With Boston carrying a 125 wRC+ over its last 13 games, the Red Sox hold the edge.

Play this pick up to -140.

COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox have been swining better on the road, posting a 105 wRC+ compared to a 93 mark at Fenway Park. That gives Boston another matchup advantage against Chandler tonight. 

Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+109)

The total is too low, and I’m targeting the Over. Boston’s offense has a 106 wRC+ over the last week, and although the power hasn’t been there, the Red Sox have still averaged nearly five runs per game during that span.

Pittsburgh’s lineup is also in decent form, posting a 107 wRC+ over its previous six contests while averaging nearly the same number of runs. Offense may be harder to find against Bennett and a Red Sox bullpen with a 2.78 xERA over its last 60 frames, but the Pirates may not need to do too much if Boston produces.

There’s vulnerability once Chandler exits, with Pittsburgh’s relief corps owning a 4.47 FIP lately.

Play this pick up to -130.

Red Sox vs Pirates home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (+388)

Wilyer Abreu is smashing baseballs recently. The slugger has logged five home runs in his last 12 games while posting a .415 ISO. Abreu also owns a 56.3% hard-hit rate and 12.1% barrel rate over the last week.

He’s consistently getting lift on the baseball, with a 20-degree launch angle during that span and a 50% fly-ball rate, and that matters here. While Chandler doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls, the Bucs’ bullpen has posted a 42.4% fly-ball rate over the last week while surrendering 1.14 HR/9.

Play this pick down to +300.

Red Sox vs Pirates weather

Weather at PNC Park looks clean tonight, with partly cloudy skies early before clearer conditions around first pitch. Temperatures should fall from 78°F to 74°F, winds are light around 3–5 mph, and rain chances stay low.

Overall, weather should be fairly neutral with no real delay concern or major scoring boost.

Red Sox vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox -127 | Pirates +122
• Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (+133) | Pirates +1.5 (-138)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Red Sox vs Pirates trend

The Boston Red Sox have cashed the moneyline in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.25 units for a 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Pirates.

How to watch Red Sox vs Pirates and game info

Red Sox vs Pirates latest injuries

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