Category: MLB

Perspective Check: Four teams with more wins than the Cubs, 91.6 win pace. The Cubs and Phillies had been matching each other, seemingly daily. But the Phillies finally lost on a day when the Cubs won and so the Cubs now lead them by 1.5 games for the top Wild Card spot (though they own the tiebreaker with the Phillies anyway). The Cubs are 3.5 games clear of the Cardinals who sit fourth in the WC race. The Cub run differential sits fifth, behind the three NL division leaders and the Yankees. The Yankees largely gave up on winning games a couple of weeks ago, so it’s hard to imagine they will stay up there. Of course, the Cubs have no pitching, so it’s hard to imagine them staying up there either.

This game was a familiar “shape.” The two most common types of wins for the Cubs this year are late team at-bat wins and games where they score nine or more. So this was another nine or more run outburst. The Cubs are now 15-0 when they score nine runs (and 21-1 when they score at least 8). The story isn’t how good the record is, even at seven runs, you should win the overwhelming majority of the time. The story is how often they’ve had these huge games. The Cubs are 29-3 when scoring seven or more runs. So 32 of 92 games, more than a third, have seen seven or more runs. They are 36-4 when scoring six or more. You get the picture. When the offense finds that higher gear, the team wins. But you can flip it, if the team doesn’t score six runs, they are just 16-36. You want that equilibrium point lower. But that’s a sign of how shaky the pitching staff is.

This game displayed so much of 2026 baseball. Colin Rea got knocked around a little bit, though he was only charged with three runs. He ends up coming away with a win because the offense was outstanding, riding a barrage of homers to a win. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit two of those homers, becoming the first 20/20 player in 2026 and looking like a near lock for 30/30 if he’s healthy. I saw someone describe PCA as the highest ceiling Cub player he’s ever seen. I find no faults in that argument. We have seen some amazing Cub seasons through the years. But we haven’t really seen an all-around gifted Cub player like PCA is, maybe ever. And I say that with someone who was whole heartedly on the Kris Bryant bandwagon a decade ago.

When asked, I’ve said this on social media. I do think at some point there is a path for PCA to be in the MVP conversation. It will always be Shohei Ohtani’s to lose. When you are a once in several generations player, you should probably win the MVP every year. I hated it when they used to pass around the MVP in the NBA when it was clear that Michael Jordan was the best player on the planet every year. At some point, being able to hit and field has to have some measurement against being able to hit and pitch. That said, Ohtani has been a very good pitcher and one of the best hitters on the planet for a while. I feel like the “at some point” involves Pete getting way beyond Ohtani’s hitting numbers. People generally don’t go beyond Ohtani’s hitting numbers, but if he could do that and play platinum glove defense, I would think it isn’t crazy to have the discussion.

At the end of the day I don’t care. I mean I’d love for Pete to grab some hardware along the way. But I want to see the Cubs win championships. An MVP trophy does nothing to make that happen. I do very much want to see Pete play the next two and a half months the way he’s played the last month and a half. What should be a 35/35/100/90 type of season helps buoy an entire offense. Besides, Platinum Gloves and Silver Sluggers are hardware too. Go get those awards.

Getting back to the game, Cub lefties had a rough night. Drew Pomeranz allowed two runs on three hits, one a homer. Caleb Thielbar allowed a pair of homers. I know they were both in strike throwing mode with a growing lead. But any way you slice it, not optimal. The two lefties combined to face 13 batters, allow six hits, four runs, three homers. Ouch. Most nights, that gets your brains beat in.

The Cubs only had eight hits, though they drew four walks. The offensive output was what it was because the team slugged five homers. Rough night for Alex Bregman after coming away with a couple of RBI in the series opener. But he did hit two very long, loud outs. You do ultimately need to see his power effect games, so I’ll take the loud outs.

Three Positives:

• Obligatory Pete in the top spot. Two hits and a walk. Three runs scored. Oh yeah, both hits were homers.
• Jacob Webb had a very mundane ninth inning, getting three ground outs for his third save to tie the team lead.
• Carson Kelly had a homer and a walk, scored twice.

Game 92, July 8: Cubs 9, Orioles 7 (52-40)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.296). 2-4, 2 HR, BB, 2 RBI, 3 R
• Hero: Carson Kelly (.129). 1-3, HR, BB, RBI, 2 R
• Sidekick: Jacob Webb (.091). IP, 3 BF (Sv 4)

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.049). 5.1 IP, 22 BF, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 2 K (W 7-5)
• Goat: Ian Happ (-.040). 1-4, K
• Kid: Caleb Thielbar (-.031). IP, 6 BF, 3 H, 2 R, 2 K

WPA Notes: Thielbar’s inning is a reminder of how improbable large comebacks are. He allows two homers, cutting a four run lead to two. That feels like a massive swing, but in the eighth inning, that moved a 4 percent chance to win to 7.2 percent.

WPA Play of the Game: Pete Alonso’s two-run homer in the fourth inning gave the Orioles a brief two-run lead. (.190)

Cubs Play of the Game: A minor oddity in that this is the third straight game where the Cubs have won and not recorded the biggest WPA play. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s tie-breaking, fifth inning homer. (.150)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 91 Winner: Matthew Boyd received 97 percent of 73 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +24
• Carson Kelly +16.5
• Michael Busch +14
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Trent Thornton +12.5
• Dansby Swanson -9
• Edward Cabrera -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Caleb Thielbar -15
• Seiya Suzuki -16.5

This is what this list looks like when you have one dominant player and a wide supporting cast.

Up Next: The third and final game of the series was moved to this afternoon (12:35 p.m. CT) due to anticipated evening storms in the Baltimore area. The Cubs can pick up another sweep. A battle of lefties. Newcomer David Peterson (4-7, 6.75) tries to bounce back from getting rocked last time out (10 ER in 3.2 IP). Former 2017 first round pick of the Marlins (13th overall) Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.70) goes for the Orioles. Trevor has really turned things around, he is 4-1 with a 2.38 over his last seven starts (41.2 IP). For the third straight game, I’ll note this is not am optimal matchup on paper.

It was a very busy day down on the farm with a mixed bag of results from Gwinnett down to Augusta. There were plenty of homers and strikeouts to go around, so let’s get into it.

(42-45) Gwinnett Stripes 3, (54-35) Memphis Redbirds 7

• Sandy Leon, C: 1-3, HR, RBI, R
• Brewer Hicklen, CF: 1-5, HR, RBI, R
• Garrett Baumann, SP: 6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Box Score

Garrett Baumann got roughed up in his fifth start for Gwinnett, as the righty gave up five runs on seven hits while being handed the loss in this one.

Wednesday’s outing marks the fourth straight start in which Baumann has allowed five or more earned runs as he currently carries an ERA of 10.38 across 21.2 innings of work at the triple-A level. While he’s kept the walks under control for the most part, Baumann has been giving up a ton of loud contact to the tune of 10 homers across those 21.2 innings. That’s simply not going to cut it at any level, much less triple-A.

One has to wonder how long the leash for Baumann is with Gwinnett before he’s sent back down to double-A to correct a few things.

At the plate, the Stripers actually almost matched Memphis hit for hit in this one, but ultimately came up short.

Two of the bright spots offensively came courtesy of Sandy Leon and Brewer Hicklen who launched their first and 15th homers of the season, respectively, to pace the offense.

421FT BREW BOMB. @GeorgiaAccesspic.twitter.com/5eP16gjlwR

— Gwinnett Stripers (@GoStripers) July 9, 2026

(37-41) Columbus Clingstones 3, (31-52) Birmingham Barons 2

• Luke Waddell, SS: 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R
• Patrick Clohisy, CF: 2-3, 2B, R
• Lucas Braun, SP: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 12 K

Box Score

While their triple-A counterparts struggled on the mound, the same could not be said for Columbus as the Clingstones rode an absolutely dominant and record-setting performance from Lucas Braun to their 37th win of the season.

To date, Wednesday’s start was the best of the season for Braun, who struck out an even dozen batters in seven innings of work while holding Birmingham to just two runs on six hits. The 12 strikeout mark sets a Clingstones’ franchise record.

Twelve strikeouts. One franchise record. 👑

Reigning Southern League Pitcher of the Week and @Braves No. 9 prospect Lucas Braun set a new Clingstones single-game record with 12 strikeouts.

7.0 IP // 6 H // 2 ER // 0 BB // 12 K pic.twitter.com/rFeQESoKr4

— Columbus Clingstones (@GoClingstones) July 9, 2026

It’s the sixth straight solid start for Braun. Dating back to June 6, Braun has tossed 35.1 innings while giving up just six runs in the process. He has also struck out a dominating 40 batters across that span as well.

It appears as though Braun has made some serious corrections since being demoted from Gwinnett. Now the only question is: when will he rejoin the Stripers?

Getting back to Wednesday’s action, while Braun’s offense was almost as stymied, the Clingstones scratched out enough at the plate to get the win — thanks in large part to the bat of Luke Waddell.

With a pair of homers on the night, Waddell both paced the Columbus offense while also tallying his best start of the season thus far while also driving in all three of the Clingstones’ runs as well.

Patrick Clohisy also had a solid night at the plate, going 2-3 with a double and a run scored on one of Waddell’s homers.

(40-40) Rome Emperors 2, (39-42) Hudson Valley Renegades 7

• Tate Southisene, SS: 1-3, HR, RBI, R
• John Gil, 2B: 0-3
• Eric Hartman, CF: 0-4, K
• Ethan Bagwell, SP: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Box Score

Rome came up on the short end of things on Wednesday to drop the high-A squad back down to .500 on the season.

Ethan Bagwell made his second start of the season for Rome on Wednesday and while it wasn’t as good as his first — in which he tossed six scoreless frames — it was still a somewhat decent outing for the righty. Across five innings of work, Bagwell surrendered eight hits, two of which were homers, and four runs while walking a pair and striking out three.

Offense was hard to come by in this one for Rome as the Emperors were limited to just two runs on three total hits across nine innings.

Colby Jones registered a double and John Estevez singled, but the biggest swing of the night came courtesy of Tate Southisene who took a backdoor breaking ball and pulled it over the left center field wall for his third homer of the season with the Emperors.

Stay hot, Tate Southisene! 💣 pic.twitter.com/kNEIvNofbl

— Rome Emperors (@GoEmperors) July 8, 2026

(47-36) Augusta GreenJackets , (46-35) Hickory Crawdads 7

• Luis Guanipa, CF: 4-5, HR, RBI, 2 R
• Conor Essenburg, RF: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, BB
• Alex Lodise, SS: 3-4, HR, 2 RBI, R
• Cooper McMurray, 1B: 2-4, HR, 2B, RBI, R
• Michael Martinez, DH: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, R
• Carter Holton, SP: 4 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, BB, 4 K

Box Score

In an offensive-dominated game, the GreenJackets ultimately rode five home runs from five different players to victory on Wednesday night.

Both offenses got going in a hurry as six total runs (three apiece) were scored in the first inning.

Trailing 3-0, Luis Guanipa homered in the GreenJackets first at-bat of the game to put Augusta on the board. Then, after a Conor Essenburg walk, Alex Lodise launched a an absolute rocket of a two-run shot to tie things up at 3-3.

The month of July has been very good to Lodise who has seen a power surge at the plate. In seven games and 27 at-bats since July 1, Lodise has homered three times while driving in six along the way. He has also posted an OPS of 1.049 for the month as well.

Alex Lodise ties it up with a MOONSHOT! pic.twitter.com/Vz5j9DpqTU

— Augusta GreenJackets (@GreenJackets) July 8, 2026

Starter Carter Holton didn’t have his best stuff as he gave up four runs on nine hits across four innings in his fourth start (fifth total appearance) with Augusta.

While that wasn’t great, his offense luckily came out to play.

In the bottom of the fifth, Conor Essenburg decided to get in on the fun by launching a solo shot — his seventh of the season — to cut the deficit to 5-4. In the next frame, Michael Martinez smashed a two-run homer of his own to give Augusta the 6-5 lead.

As if that wasn’t enough, Cooper McMurray — who doubled earlier in the game — followed up with a solo shot in the very next at-bat to extend the GreenJackets lead to 7-5.

Essenburg came through with a much-needed insurance run later in the inning — an RBI-single — to make it an 8-5 advantage for Augusta, which proved to be critical.

As for the rest of the GreenJackets pitching staff, Logan Forsythe, Daniel Brookes and Adiel Melendez — who recorded the win — combined to toss five innings of three-run ball while striking out five.

Hubie Brooks is our 3rd entry in our continuing series chronicling the upcoming 40-year anniversary of the 1986 ASG at the historic Astrodome.     

Brooks would play 15 seasons in the majors, with his first All-Star Selection occurring for this very matchup.  

Q:  You had some amazing teams in Montreal, loaded with talent.  What stood out to you about those teams?

A:  It was something.  Tim Wallach, Tim Raines, Andres Galarraga, Andre Dawson, Vance Law, I could go on and on.  We had some great players.   

The problem was at the time, the Mets were really good also (laughs) and in 1986 in particular, they ran away with things.    

Q:  You were on a tear during the opening half of the 1986 season.  You were batting cleanup.  You had 14 HR and 54 RBI.  Did you enjoy batting cleanup?   

A:  I would do anything to win.  So whatever capacity they could utilize me, that’s what I was going to do.  My job was to produce runs when guys were in scoring position.   I was fortunate because it felt like Tim Raines and Andre Dawson were on base a bunch ahead of me.  That’s why I had an opportunity.   

Q:  Let’s talk about July 15th at the Astrodome and the Mid-Summer Classic.  What was that night like for you?

A:  It was my first one and I just tried to soak it all in.  I sat in my locker before the game and just observed and took it all in and all of those great players around me.  You know what was crazy was at the time they had this guy running around (Barry Bremen) called  “The Great Imposter” and he tried to crash the team photo.     

Tommy Lasorda saw this and ran over to him and gave him the most profanity-laced tirade I had ever heard in my life (laughs).  You’ll remember at the time, this guy was crashing events everywhere.  Tommy gave him the riot act and he was removed from the field and taken away.   

Q:  So late that night, the National League begins mounting a comeback, you put up two runs in the 8th inning.  You reached base.  Did you feel you were going to come back and win that thing?  The N.L. had a reputation at the time for dominating that event back in those days.

A:  Yeah.  100%.  I thought we were going to win.  I really thought we could, and we had our chances but give them credit because they made more plays.

Q:  The next year, you’d return to the All-Star Game, and your teammate Tim Raines would join you and be named MVP that night out in Oakland.  Why do you think it took so long for Raines to be elected to Cooperstown? 

A:  I honestly don’t know.  I can remember that Andre Dawson, who is Tim’s best friend, would always tell him to just be patient and that one day it would happen and then it happened.  That was a great moment.   

The Royals have not historically been a great organization at identifying and developing hitters with strong plate discipline. Since 2000, the Royals swing at more pitches out of the strike zone than any team and rank dead last in walk rate. Too often, the Royals have leaned toward toolsy hitters with athletic upside that come with swing-and-miss concerns, rather than prioritizing hitters whose value is anchored in strike-zone control, contact quality, and good swing decisions.

That may be changing under scouting director Brian Bridges. A common theme in the last two draft classes has been hitters who have a plan when they step up to the plate, with less of an emphasis on speed burners or guys with raw power.

The upcoming draft provides an opportunity for the Royals to improve their stock of hitters in the farm system with some players who can work the count and find a good pitch to hit. Here are some college hitters who may be available after round one that have exhibited some good plate discipline.

OF Logan Hughes, Texas Tech

Baseball America rank: #45

Hughes is a power hitter who has smashed 37 home runs over the last two seasons for the Red Raiders. He hit .375/.510/.735 with 18 home runs and 50 walks in 55 games this year, earning Baseball America second team All-American honors. They write he is a “patient and selective hitter who does a nice job staying within the strike zone” with a “penchant for putting the barrel on the ball even on the rare occasions when he does expand the zone.” Despite his prodigious power, he wasn’t a swing-and-miss guy, with a terrific 12.2 percent strikeout rate in his career. Hughes doesn’t offer a lot of size or athleticism, and will likely play in the corners, but he brings elite bat speed, a terrific hit tool and good eye to the plate.

OF Ty Head, North Carolina State

BA rank: #52

Head brings a great approach with solid tools as a left-handed hitter. His 88% overall contact rate and 91% in-zone contact rate put him among the better pure hitters in the class. He hit .291/.460/.556 with 57 walks and just 23 strikeouts in 56 games with the Wolfpack this year, and posted similar strikeout and walk numbers last year. There is some swing-and-miss risk in his timing and a tendency toward a “slap” approach that can limit damage, but evaluators believe there is real hit-tool upside if the swing is refined. Head is a plus runner who could handle centerfield at the pro level, and he developed some decent power this year with 14 home runs.

OF Caden Bogenpohl, Missouri State

BA rank: #110

A native of the Cape Girardeau area, Bogenpohl is physically imposing at 6’5”, 245 lbs. His exit velocities were among the best at the MLB Draft Combine with Baseball America describing his batting practice as exhibiting 80-grade power. On the other hand, Bogenpohl hit just six home runs for the Bears, hitting .274/.427/.413 with 52 walks in 55 games and a higher groundball rate than you’d like for a guy with his profile. At the combine, he had a more upright stance with a “simpler pre-swing load” so he could unlock more power with good instruction at the pro level. While he does walk, he can have issues with secondaries, and scouts wonder if his plate judgment will translate at the pro level.

OF, Brayden Dowd, Florida State

BA rank: #178

Dowd began his career at USC, but ended up at Florida State, hitting .293/.456/.527 with 51 walks in 51 games last year. Standing at just 5’10”, he is far from a toolsy hitters, but has a compact left-handed swing with excellent fastball recognition. Baseball America notes that against high velocity (93+ mph) pitches, he has a terrific 96% contact rate. He has some pop, smacking ten home runs last year, but scouts wonder if he will have any power with wood bats. He did struggle last summer in the wood bat Cape Cod League. The Michigan native has above-average speed, and may be able to stick in centerfield.

3B/OF, Brayden Martin, Maryland

BA rank: #225

Martin stands out for elite contact ability rather than loud offensive production. His contact rates are exceptional- 95.6% overall and 97.1% in the zone – and his approach is defined by extreme selectivity at the plate, including a very low swing rate. He struck out just 20 times in 286 plate appearances, while drawing 56 walks.

The question isn’t whether he can put bat to ball, it’s whether the passivity and lack of impact contact limit his ceiling against better pitching. He hit just five home runs in three seasons with the Terrapins, and isn’t likely to develop more pop on his small frame.

2B Joe Tiroly, Virginia

BA rank: #238

Tiroly is a polished college hitter whose value starts with his approach rather than his tools. The Virginia infielder consistently controls the strike zone with excellent swing decisions and strong bat-to-ball skills, rarely expanding the zone and projecting for an above-average on-base percentage. He hit .319/.408/.576 with 30 walks and low strikeout rate of 16 percent. He hit 16 home runs, but is more of a line-drive hitter who makes solid contact. He’s a right-handed second baseman, a profile that isn’t widely coveted, but if he can continue to hit, he’ll make teams regret not choosing him.

Others:

Jaylon Lucky, Southern

Kent Schmidt, Georgia Tech

Kai Wagner, Pitt

Could you imagine scoring 22 runs and coming within one hit of losing a game? That’s what happened to the Ontario Tower Buzzers, but all is well that ends well in a day of no defeats in the Dodgers minor league system.

Player of the day

While the hitting candidates were plentiful as the Tower Buzzers put up 22, no hitter in that game secured multiple home runs in the same important manner as did Zyhir Hope. The Drillers’ outfielder basically carried the team’s entire offense on his back in a 7-2 win.

2 HOMER NIGHT FOR ZYHIR HOPE 😤 pic.twitter.com/bCmtfuryuM

— Tulsa Drillers (@TulsaDrillers) July 9, 2026

Although it is only July 9th, it is already the fourth game securing at least five total bases for Hope this month, who hadn’t homered twice in the same game since the start of June. The lefty-hitting outfielder is already up to 76 RBI on the season.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

It’d be tough to ask for much more out of Zach Ehrhard, who has now passed the 60-RBI mark on the season—Ehrhard hit one of the Comets’ four homers, an inside-the-parker at that, to lead the way for a win over the Chihuahuas by a score of 9-2. Alek Thomas left the yard twice, and Noah Miller had the other home run.

ZACH EHRHARD JUST HIT HIS SECOND INSIDE-THE-PARK HOME RUN OF THE SEASON☄️ pic.twitter.com/Eewhd0GKxh

— Oklahoma City Comets (@OKC_comets) July 9, 2026

In a game in which both sides combined to allow more hits than strikeouts, the work of veteran Cole Irvin got the job done for OKC. Irvin covered six innings of two-run ball, handing it off to a bullpen that tossed three scoreless without allowing a single hit.

Lastly, Ryan Ward needed just one single to become the all-time hits leader in the OKC’s Bricktown era, reaching 463 total and leaving behind Drew Avans, now second on the ranking.

HISTORY FOR RYAN WARD!!!

His 463rd hit with Oklahoma City sets a new Bricktown era record! pic.twitter.com/z21wr6rtOG

— Oklahoma City Comets (@OKC_comets) July 9, 2026

Double-A Tulsa

Any Hope of winning this game against the Cardinals went through Zyhir, who homered twice and drove in five of the Drillers’ seven runs with those key long balls, his only hits in the game. In fact, considering Chris Newell also left the yard, the only Tulsa run that didn’t come via the long ball came on a Mike Sirota RBI triple, the man who can’t stop reaching base safely.

Pitching, only one of the three runs let across by Adam Serwinowski was earned, as the southpaw managed to earn his seventh win of the season. While they ran into a bit of trouble in the ninth inning, Kelvin Ramirez came in to secure a two-out save, carrying Tulsa to their 56th win in 83 games.

High-A Great Lakes

Working well with runners in scoring position (5 for 11), the Loons overcame a 4-1 deficit in the fifth inning to beat the Dragons 8-4 at home. The combination of Charles Davalan and Eduardo Quintero at the top of the order had a great performance, responsible for half of the team’s RBI, with Quintero hitting the team’s only home run, a solo shot in the first.

Because the Loons only took the lead after Aidan Foeller left the mound, having covered 4.2 innings with eight strikeouts and allowing three runs across, the win was left for Matt Lanzendonfer, his third on the season.

Single-A Ontario

One occasionally hears of football scores in a baseball game, but nothing quite as shocking as this 22-21 by the Tower Buzzers over the 66ers. In this game both sides combined for 33 hits, six errors, and four half innings with at least six runs scored.

It was by the thinnest of margins that Ontario escaped one of the all-time minor collapses in this one, considering they scored the game’s first 16 runs through three innings. Mairoshendrick Martinus and Ching-Hsien Ko combined to strike out five times, but each had an outstanding game of their own, responsible for 10 of the team’s 22 RBI. On top of those two, Jaron Elkins and Joendry Vargas also left the yard with multi-run homers.

Jholbran Herder tossed a couple of scoreless innings to begin the game, but then virtually any reliever that the Tower Buzzers sent to hold this sizeable lead seemed intent on giving it up. With the most alarming of appearances coming from Dailoui Abad in a ninth inning in which he allowed six runs to come across. The game ended with the tying run in scoring position and Jecsua Liborius punching out Ryan Piccolo, who had reached base all three times up at the plate before that at-bat.

Wednesday’s scores

• Oklahoma City 9, El Paso 2
• Tulsa 7, Springfield 3
• Great Lakes 8, Dayton 5
• Ontario 22, Inland Empire 21

Thursday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Sean Patick) vs. Dayton (Kyle McCoy)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Davis Martin) vs. Springfield (Chen-Wei Lin)
• 5:05 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Jackson Ferris) vs. El Paso (Evan Fitterer)
• 6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Inland Empire (Jose Romero)

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Another busy slate across the majors presents value in my MLB same-game parlay predictions. 

Today's selections will include the likes of Jesus Luzardo, Nathan Eovaldi, and the red-hot Jo Adell. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 9.

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Mariners vs Marlins SGP: Another gem from Miller

Bryce Miller continues to dominate for the Seattle Mariners. The righty owns a 2.17 FIP over his last two starts, and he hasn't allowed a single walk during that span.

Miller has also held opponents to a 30.9% hard-hit rate over the last month. He's cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in two of his previous three outings. 

The strikeout prop for Miller is also a no-brainer tonight. His total is set at a modest 5.5, and the 27-year-old has easily surpassed that in six straight. He's struck out 11.57 hitters per nine innings across his last four starts. 

Cal Raleigh is in the midst of a four-game hitting streak, and he has an impressive 50.3% hard-hit rate over the last week. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV, Marlins.TV

Phillies vs Reds SGP: Luzardo quiets Reds

Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent at times this season, but he's improving a lot lately. Over his last two starts, the Philadelphia Phillies lefty has posted a terrific 1.56 xERA, and he's hit the Under in earned runs allowed in both outings. 

Luzardo is also consistently pitching deep into games. He's lasted into the sixth inning or longer in three of his last four. Over the last month, opponents have only had a 31.3% hard-hit rate. 

Youngster Justin Crawford has multi-hit games in back-to-back appearances, and he's batting .353 over the last six games. He'll face Cincinnati Reds starter Brady Singer tonight, who has an alarming 44.4% hard-hit rate and 14.8% barrel rate in his last two outings.

This is a clear chance for Crawford to stay hot. 

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Reds.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Angels vs Rangers SGP: Adell keeps raking

Nathan Eovaldi certainly hasn't been dominant this season, but as always, he's still racking up the Ks. The veteran has struck out 10.57 hitters per nine innings across his last five starts.

The righty has easily surpassed tonight's total in three straight outings, posting nine Ks in each. 

Jo Adell is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He has seven hits in his last three games, and Adell just went 2-for-4 on Wednesday with two homers. Eovaldi has allowed a 39.3% hard-hit rate over his last two outings.

There's some vulnerability that Adell can capitalize on. 

Mike Trout has collected a hit in nine consecutive games. While he just returned from the IL, the veteran has continued to make quality contact, producing a 45.8% hard-hit rate over the last month. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, Rangers Sports Network

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Michael King was pulled with a 3-0 lead after 75 pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start, which ultimately became a 4-3 loss after an error and a grand slam followed his departure. He came into the contest between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks looking to replicate the success from his previous start and he did just that allowing one run on four hits over six innings of work. King limited the walks in his outing, allowing two free passes, and struck out four on 92 pitches as the Padres earned a 10-4 win over the Diamondbacks at Petco Park on Wednesday.

The Padres offense supported King’s effort with runs in the third and fourth innings to take a 2-1 lead. San Diego then added two runs in the fifth inning and four runs in the sixth inning to take a comfortable 8-1 lead. Arizona added two runs to its total in the top of the seventh inning when Tommy Troy connected on a two-run homer against reliever Ron Marinaccio which made the score, 8-3. San Diego immediately responded in the bottom of the inning, adding two runs to its total to give the Padres a 10-3 lead. The Diamondbacks tacked on a run in the top of the eighth inning,

San Diego got contributions from the majority of the lineup with only Gavin Sheets being held without a hit. Miguel Andujar recorded three doubles and Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Luis Campusano each had two hits in the game with Campusano recording his first home run of the season.

Padres News:

• The San Diego farm system has seen several changes over recent days, and Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball provides details on who moved up, who moved down and who was released.

• The Padres have had a first half of the season to forget when comes to their pitching staff. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball looks ahead to what the rotation could look like following the All-Star break.

• The MLB trade deadline is fast approaching, and Gaslamp Ball asks readers how they would handle that time on the baseball calendar.

• Samad Taylor is the latest Padres player to land on the IL and Luis Rengifo was recalled from Triple-A to take his spot on the roster.

• Manny Machado got the day off following a game in which he fouled a ball off his big toe.

• Jake Cronenworth has returned to the San Diego lineup and has supplied much needed power to the bottom of the order.

Baseball News:

• Dylan Cease came close to his second no-hitter, but the San Francisco Giants played spoiler breaking up the no-no in the ninth.

• The Miami Marlins knocked off the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Mike Trout returned to the lineup for the Los Angeles Angels and homered in his first game back.

• The Chicago Cubs knocked off the Baltimore Orioles.

The Cubs’ 9-7 win over the Orioles Wednesday evening, their third straight and 18th in their last 24, had a little bit of everything the 2026 season to date has provided.

Lots of homers? Check.

Some great defense? Check.

Some dodgy relief work, pointing out the need for bullpen improvements? Double-check, because the Cubs came close to blowing a six-run seventh-inning lead, yikes.

All right, since that didn’t happen, let’s begin at the beginning.

Neither team scored in the first two innings, though the Cubs might have on this drive by Alex Bregman in the first [VIDEO].

That was a tremendous catch by Taylor Ward. It’s not totally clear from the clip, but Ward might have stolen a home run from Bregman. At least Bregman is starting to drive the ball again. Good things should follow.

Then the Cubs got on the board in the third, thanks to Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 20th homer of the season [VIDEO].

For PCA, that makes him the first MLB player this year with a 20/20 season and also gives him this accomplishment:

Players with 20+ HR & 20+ SB before All-Star break in consecutive seasons
(MLB history)

Alfonso Soriano 2002-03
Pete Crow-Armstrong 2025-26

— Christopher Kamka (@ckamka) July 8, 2026

Pretty, pretty cool, I’d say. PCA’s going to be a candidate for Player of the Week again if he keeps this up. One more fact about PCA’s third-inning homer from BCB’s JohnW53:

The Cubs went 157 plate appearances without a homer from the last of the eight vs. the Padres on July 1 until Pete Crow-Armstrong’s in the third inning Wednesday night.

The Orioles tied the game off Colin Rea in the bottom of the third, scoring a run on a double play. Then Rea gave up a two-run homer to Pete Alonso in the fourth that gave Baltimore a 3-1 lead. For Alonso it was his 16th career homer off Cubs pitching, the most off any team not in the NL East, where he used to make his home.

The Cubs came roaring back to take the lead in the fifth with three more long balls of their own.

Michael Conforto led off the fifth with his eighth of the year on the first pitch of the inning [VIDEO].

That made it 3-2 and on the very next pitch, Carson Kelly tied the game with his fifth [VIDEO].

Two pitches, two runs, pretty efficient! More on these two homers from John:

The homers by Michael Conforto and Carson Kelly were just the Cubs’ second back-to-back blasts this season. The previous pair were by Alex Bregman and Ian Happ on March 29, at home vs. the Natiionals.

The Cubs hit 16, 12, 20, 10 and 10 pairs in the last five seasons. They have homered back-to-back 408 times in the regular season since 1876, plus 11 sets of back-to-back-to-back, for a total of 419 sets of consecutive homers.

After Dansby Swanson grounded out, PCA went deep again for No. 21 [VIDEO].

And just like that, the Cubs had the lead again.

Rea was removed with one out in the sixth with another decent outing, the only real mistake the home run pitch to Alonso. Drew Pomeranz finished up the sixth without incident and then the Cubs blew the game open — or so we thought! — with a five-run seventh.

With one out, Carson Kelly walked and Dansby Swanson singled. The O’s called on Grant Wolfram, who had faced 113 batters before this game and walked four of them. Of course that meant he walked the first hitter he faced, PCA. (And you think the Cubs have bullpen issues. Well, yes, they do, but so do a lot of other teams!)

That loaded the bases for Bregman [VIDEO].

The sac fly made it 5-3, and both trailing runners moved up. Michael Busch walked to load the bases again — that means within three batters, Wolfram had walked half as many as he had for the entire season before this game.

Then Wolfram gave the Cubs another run on this wild pitch [VIDEO].

This was Grant Wolfram’s night to do stuff he hadn’t done all year. Before this game he had not allowed a single home run, as noted, among 113 batters faced. That streak reached 116 with the three batters faced in this game up to this point.

Seiya Suzuki ended that streak by launching this monster three-run shot [VIDEO].

That ball: Crushed! [VIDEO]

The Cubs had a six-run lead heading to the bottom of the eighth. You would think that would be enough.

My friends, it almost wasn’t. Pomeranz, left in to throw the seventh, allowed a home run to Tyler O’Neill that made it 9-4, and then two more singles before he was replaced with Trent Thornton. Thornton finished off the inning, but not before he gave up an RBI single, the run charged to Pomeranz. Still, it’s 9-5 going to the eighth. What could possibly…

Don’t finish that question and don’t answer it. Two more O’s homers off Caleb Thielbar — who’s really not having a good year at all — made it 9-7. That included O’Neill’s second homer of the game, and the fourth Orioles long ball to add to the Cubs’ five homers on the evening. And things could have been worse. After the homers, with two out Jackson Holliday doubled, bringing Gunnar Henderson to the plate as the potential tying run.

Henderson hit a line drive up the middle… and Swanson made this spectacular diving catch to end the inning [VIDEO].

Right there, that could have saved the game.

But could the Cubs record three outs in the ninth without giving up two runs?

Well, you now know the answer to that. Jacob Webb, who’s done a decent job filling in as closer for Daniel Palencia, recorded the first two outs of the ninth, both ground balls, on just four pitches. Then he ran a 1-2 count on Alonso… at which time some idiot ran onto the field. As is normal policy for TV channels, Marquee correctly didn’t show this, though Boog and JD said this person was wearing Cubs garb. Don’t do that. Just don’t. Seriously.

Anyway, when order was restored Webb got Alonso to hit a dribbler to end the game [VIDEO].

For Webb, that was his, uh, team-leading fourth save. So, yay?

Sure, yay. Someone’s got to do the job. But clearly, in addition to needing some rotation help, the Cubs need bullpen reinforcements. Some might come when injured relievers (including Palencia) return. But Jed Hoyer should also be exploring the trade market for relief pitchers.

Here’s PCA on his homers and Dansby’s defense [VIDEO].

One last note, this one on the Cubs’ five-homer game, from John:

After hitting five home runs in a 6-0 win over the Red Sox at Wrigley Field on July 19, 2025, the Cubs did not hit five again in 149 consecutive game. Now they have done it in three of their last seven: five on June 30, eight on July 1 and five vs. the Orioles — with none in the four games between the last two.

The Cubs picked up a game on the Brewers, who lost Wednesday to the Cardinals, and trail Milwaukee by six games, while still leading the third-place Cardinals by 3.5 games. The Cubs also lead the Phillies by 1.5 games for the top wild card spot.

All’s well that ends well, though, and the Cubs continue to find ways to win. They’ll go for the series sweep Thursday afternoon — and that’s a change, the game’s been moved up to 12:35 p.m. CT due to impending weather in Baltimore Thursday evening, as noted here last night. David Peterson gets the start for the Cubs and Trevor Rogers goes for the O’s. TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network and the BCB game preview will post at 11 a.m. CT.

Thanks to a disastrous 2025 season, the Twins are set to draft a soon-to-be top MLB prospect with the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft this weekend. It is their highest draft pick since 2017 when they selected Royce Lewis with the 1st overall pick, and their last two top 3 picks before that were Byron Buxton and Joe Mauer. Not bad! It goes without saying that a pick of this significance will have massive implications on the future of the Minnesota Twins franchise. As we approach draft day, I took a little dive into the top prospects in this draft class and ranked my top 5 hopefuls for the Twins if they are available at 3. Enjoy!

1. SS Roch Cholowsky – UCLA

Roch Cholowsky has been the top prospect in this year’s draft for a while, but doubts are rising as the draft approaches, with some scouts opting to push Grady Emerson or Vahn Lackey to the top spot. They are all phenomenal prospects of course, but as a gold glove caliber shortstop with an all-around great offensive profile, Roch stays put at the top for me.

He had a more slender build when MLB Pipeline ranked him as the No. 44 prospect in the 2023 draft out of high school. Instead, Cholowsky went to UCLA and was able to beef up without losing the athletic profile. Meanwhile, he was producing at an elite level the entire time. He combines a short and well-controlled swing with excellent bat speed and some loft that allows him to carry the ball out consistently to all fields. There is a little more aggression in his approach that will have to be monitored as he begins his pro career, but it is an elite combo of hit and power.

Defensively, Roch has a cannon arm that consistently produces highlight throws when he’s on the move or deep in the gap. While he’s an average runner, he is incredibly smart and instinctual, which shows up both in the field and on the bases. Excellent range and defensive actions are pushing Cholowsky’s defense into elite-level shortstop talks.

While it is still highly unlikely that he is available when Minnesota is on the clock, the chances have grown, and he should be a shoo-in for the No. 3 pick if he still happens to be on the board. The Twins have lacked true shortstop prospects in recent years but would move into an excellent spot with Cholowsky and Houston, while Culpepper sits on the border. It would set them up for a future level of infield defense that we have not seen from this team in a long time. And oh yeah, Roch can hit the crap out of the ball too!

Can't wait for some Rochtober in the future 🤩

Relive a small sampling of Roch Cholowsky's 2️⃣1️⃣ HRs in 2026.@UCLABaseball x @MLBpic.twitter.com/4urPQ5qE4n

— Big Ten Baseball (@B1Gbaseball) July 7, 2026

2. C Vahn Lackey – Georgia Tech

Vahn Lackey has been highly touted throughout his college years for his excellent backstop defense, but back-to-back breakout years at the plate have thrown him into “best player in college baseball” territory.

There are a lot of moving parts in his swing, including a big leg kick and stride out. He loads his hands early and has a powerful, yet easy drive through the zone. Doesn’t miss a fastball, but I worry about his ability to adjust to offspeed given how much pre-swing movement there is. His contact skills have looked good in college and his swing decisions have improved nicely over the past few years, but I do think there could be some more whiff as he moves into the pros. Still, it’s an above-average hit tool with plus power potential.

Lackey is a unique catcher with an impressive athletic profile. He stole 18 bags in 2025 and 15 more in 2026. He possesses excellent quickness at the catcher position, moving laterally and blocking with ease. He has a plus arm with a lightning-quick trigger.

Its a plus catching profile with the tools to be a high-end bat, and the continued development makes me hopeful that there is even more in the tank. He may get pushed through the minors a little slower than fans would hope to allow the bat to continue developing, but the defense is already looking great. It’s a high floor, high ceiling player. The Twins haven’t drafted a catcher anywhere in the first round since Joe Mauer, but Vahn Lackey is the odds-on favorite to become Minnesota’s first selection of the weekend and he absolutely has the talent to warrant that.

VAHN LACKEY 468-FOOT MOONSHOT ☄️

(🎥@GTBaseball) pic.twitter.com/OfaX5Tl1fx

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) May 31, 2026

3. SS Grady Emerson – Fort Worth Christian (HS)

Looking through clips of Grady Emerson’s swing on Twitter is fun because I watch them and say “wow that swing is beautiful” and then realize that it’s a post from 2023 when he had just entered high school. Emerson has been at the top of this class ever since scouts laid eyes on him.

His swing is so smooth. So simple and efficient in his load, gliding through the zone with some good loft and impressive bat speed. Emerson batted .532 with some solid power and was nearly impossible to strike out while showing off an incredibly mature approach. He’s a very well-rounded hitter with an easy plus hit tool, an advanced approach, and developing power.

Defensively, Grady is above-average across the boards and possesses a unique fluidity that pushes his shortstop defense into plus territory. Great instincts give him easy range and he pairs it with fluid actions and an above-average arm.

There is always more uncertainty about how high school prospects will mature physically. You can project a certain amount of added power, but it’s difficult to be certain about it, and you never know what some added muscle will do to their movement. I feel comfortable slotting Emerson in with an above-average power tool, but its not quite on Roch’s level and there is a more limited defensive ceiling. He gives me some Jackson Holliday vibes. An uber-polished high school hitter that will fly through the minors, but may not quite have that truly elite ceiling.

Grady Emerson may not be on the board very long 👀@CarlosACollazo has heard Emerson sounds like a strong fit for both the Rays and Twins in the top three.

New mock: https://t.co/xpi0CqE9Eupic.twitter.com/q0exUB4YCe

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) April 13, 2026

4. RHP Jackson Flora – UCSB

Just one year after Tyler Bremner shot up the boards and went 2nd overall, another UCSB arm in Jackson Flora is slated to end up in the top 5. With a 1.06 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 102 innings this season, the hype is absolutely warranted.

Flora is 6’5” with long levers and some freakish arm speed. Its a whippy arm action and a lower release point. His fastball sits 96-98 and has touched triple digits. With good carry, its already an easy plus offering with potential to be one of the best fastballs in the world. He has a pair of plus breaking balls, one in the mid 80s and the other in the low 80s, both displaying some wicked sweep with huge whiff potential. His changeup has developed nicely this year, and while he is still finding the feel for command, the pitch is now flashing plus splittler-like depth.

He is a good strike-thrower, but the whippy arm motion may expose some weaknesses in command as he faces off against more talented hitters in the pros. He holds his velocity and stuff well throughout starts and has ace potential that we could see in the majors as soon as 2027. Given the three hitters at the top of charts, Flora is sitting comfortably in the No. 4 spot, but he is absolutely in play at pick 3 or even higher if one of these teams wants to go the pitching route.

Jackson Flora tossed a gem for @UCSB_Baseball tonight 💎

9 IP
2 H
0 ER
0 BB
12 K
108 TP

The No. 4 draft prospect is sporting a 1.03 ERA over 14 starts this season.

(🎥@UCSB_Baseball) pic.twitter.com/4rTI5UPl10

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) May 15, 2026

5. OF Drew Burress – Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech’s superstar turned into a running mate this year with Vahn Lackey’s breakout, but Drew Burress has been unbelievably productive for the Yellow Jackets since the day he stepped on campus. If you just looked at the home run totals and exit velocities, you would be shocked to see that Burress is just 5’9” with a pretty compact build. Likewise, if you only looked at his height and weight, you would be shocked to find out that he is Georgia Tech’s all-time home run leader.

He packs a punch in his big and lofty swing. He starts his swing standing straight up and has a sizable stride out, but a minimal hand load keeps him on time as he explodes out with quick, twitchy hands. All throughout college, Burress has posted excellent contact rates against fastballs, but has had issues adjusting to secondaries. Still, he maintains a solid hit tool and patient approach, allowing him to maximize his power output, which is plus raw pop with elite pulled fly ball rates.

Defensively, he manned centerfield for Georgia Tech, showing off good range and a plus arm. He’s not an elite defender out there and will likely end up in a corner, but is a capable centerfielder. Not an aggressive base-stealer in college, but a good runner and all-around impressive athlete.

It is mostly a 3-man race between Cholowsky, Lackey, and Emerson for Minnesota at pick 3, and if the Twins decide to go another direction, I would be shocked if they choose to add to their already overcrowded outfield group. Still, the dynamite bat that Drew Burress swings is going to intrigue some teams at the top of the draft and for good reason.

Georgia Tech CF Drew Burress is proving that size doesn’t always matter and is arguably the best pure hitter in the 2026 draft. Numerous EVs >115 MPH. 37% PullAir, 20° HH LA. Outlier combo of raw+game power along with 11% Z-Whiff. I think he sticks in CF. 3rd on my college board. pic.twitter.com/O8YOQUMbI4

— Danny (@dannybarrand_) June 8, 2026

The Debrief

The Twins obviously do not control their own destiny here, so its a wait-and-see game. If Roch Cholowsky is on the board at pick 3, I would take him with no hesitation. I’d be ecstatic to get Vahn Lackey as well. If those two are both gone when the Twins are on the clock, I think there is a conversation to be had about Flora. I would still take Emerson at 3, but I can see the vision with the flamethrowing righty. At this point, I don’t believe that any other option is in play for Minnesota. There is a lot of pressure that comes with a pick of this importance, but all of these guys have superstar potential and any of them could bust. Given the insane talent in each of these players, the Twins are getting a franchise cornerstone type of asset no matter what.

Since completing their home sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates in early June, the Atlanta Braves are 8-17, winning exactly one series over that span.

But they can change that tune Thursday afternoon, somewhat fittingly against the Pirates.

After a beatdown loss in Game 1 and a late scoring surge in a shutout win in Game 2, the Braves close out their series in Pittsburgh Thursday at 12:35 p.m. ET before heading to St. Louis for a weekend series.

If they’re going to win a series and begin to trend back in the right direction, a strong performance on the mound from Bryce Elder would set them on that path.

The right-hander’s 5-6 record and 4.01 ERA are certainly not representative of his recent form. He’s been off since June 27, skipped once through the order after some serious struggles of late.

After he had a 5-3 record and 2.66 ERA through his first 14 starts, he’s lost his last three starts, allowing a combined 19 runs on 27 hits over 14 innings. Opposing teams had a .313 batting average and 1.61 WHIP against Elder in June, with 35 hits and 24 runs allowed in 26 2/3 innings.

Maybe another start against the Pirates will be what he needs to take a step back in the right direction. His last effective start came against Pittsburgh in Atlanta, allowing two runs on two hits over six innings. At that time, that was his 10th quality start in 14 total starts this season.

Suffice it to say, he hasn’t had close to another one of those since.

In his career against Pittsburgh, Elder is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA over four starts, striking out 26 and walking five over 24 innings.

He’ll be facing off against Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller. In the Pirates’ pre-Paul Skenes era, Keller was someone who seemed like a possible future ace for them. The former second-round pick was an All-Star in 2023 and had an ERA of 4.25 or better in each of the last four seasons.

This season, though, has been more of a struggle for Keller, now 30, who enters with a 6-6 record and 5.02 ERA, his worst since his first 100-inning season in 2021.

Like Elder, he had a stellar ERA early in the season that has taken a hit of late. In his six starts since June began, he’s 1-4 with a 6.47 ERA, 23 strikeouts and 13 walks in 32 innings. While his skid really began in his last start of May, he wasn’t very good back on June 5 at Atlanta, allowing six runs — tied for his second most this season — on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings.

That’s basically in line with Keller’s track record against the Braves. He has a 1-4 record and 7.85 ERA in eight career starts against Atlanta.

After Atlanta was so incredible in rubber matches early in the year, winning eight of their first nine, they’ve lost their last four deciding games of series.

This presents another chance to end that drought and build back some momentum with both the Phillies and Marlins only three games back in the NL East.

Game Info

Game Time: Thursday, July 9, 12:35 EDT

Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

I think about the 2023 Texas Rangers a lot. (Wait, isn’t this daily question post supposed to be about the Marlins? Yes, bear with me.) Not because they won the World Series. (Did they win the World Series? I have no idea.) But because of this:

• The 2023 Rangers were, before the season, projected as an 82-win team, fourth in their division. Though their talent level changed over the course of the season, the swing was more like two wins (to an 84-win talent level).
• At the same time, these same Rangers finished second in MLB in position player fWAR and 20th in pitching fWAR, with a whopping 97ish WAR-wins. They did outhit their xwOBA by a bit, and benefited from an FIP lower than their xFIP by a bit, but nothing dramatic or even that notable.
• They finished with 90 wins.

So, it was kind of a weird double-whammy. They finished notably better than their talent level, but notably worse than their production. And usually, those two italicized things also line up, so it was kind of a mis-triangulation in a bunch of different directions slash along a bunch of different axes. Hence, that squad living rent-free in my head.

As of right now, the 2026 Miami Marlins are tied with the Phillies record-wise, both three games behind the Braves. The Fish and Phils hold the final two Wild Card spots in the NL, now up two games on the Cardinals.

The Marlins…

• Were projected, preseason, with a central estimate of 76 wins. Their talent level estimation has barely gone up over the course of the season (to around 77 wins).
• They are currently sixth in position player value and tenth in pitching value. Their current WAR-wins total is 50; the Marlins have 51 actual wins.
• They have the league’s second-biggest xwOBA outperformance (after the Rockies), but also the league’s second-lowest HR/FB on the pitching end (which is probably park-aided, but then see the xwOBA outperformance).

So, it’s not exactly the same as the 2023 Rangers. But you can see why I’m going there. Are the Marlins good? They have had incredible production to date, but they’re 21st in team xwOBA and 15th in team xFIP. That combination of average-to-bottom-third is in line with a high 70s-win team (i.e., their projection central estimate). Meanwhile, the Marlins are on pace for 89 wins. If they keep it up, it’ll be a wild ride.

But, all of that is just a bunch of information. The Marlins’ outperformance could cease and they could regress, or it could keep up and give the Braves, Phillies, and other NL contenders a headache. Or, they could actually start playing better and become more 2023 Rangers-esque.

Do you think they’ll pass the Phillies this season? What about the Braves? I don’t necessarily mean when all is said and done, just… can they keep their run up enough to do so, even temporarily? They’ve lost just eight times in the last five-and-a-half weeks, which is quite an April/May 2026 Braves heater.

Monday wasn’t a good day for any of the Phillies, but perhaps it was the worst for Cristopher Sánchez. The ace lefty suffered through his worst start in his big-league career to this point, as he allowed 9 runs on 12 hits in just 3.1 innings. It was the most runs he’s ever allowed in a start and the most he’s allowed in a start since August of 2024. It also tied his career high in hits allowed and the second time this year he’s allowed 12 hits in a start.

All baseball players go through slumps, including pitchers. It’s extremely common for anyone to have an off day where absolutely nothing goes right even in a season where almost everything has gone well. Sánchez will in all likelihood rebound from this disaster and continue to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

However, this clunker may have cost him some notable recognition. It couldn’t have come at a much worse time in regard to the possibility of Sánchez starting the All-Star game on his home mound. It was already shaping up to be a debate, but recency bias is now firmly against Sánchez. Brewers’ fireballer Jacob Misiorowski being ineligible to pitch certainly helps Sánchez’ chances, but he still went from being second in the NL in ERA and seventh in WHIP to seventh and 15th respectively.

But that’s not all, as this start inflated his numbers to the point where he may have also cost himself a chance at the NL Cy Young award at season’s end. There’s still plenty of baseball to be played and things change all the time, but Sánchez was already facing an uphill battle against Misiorowski. Now the statistical gap between the two is even wider with others such as Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Chase Burns also looking like contenders.

So, did Cristopher Sánchez cost himself the All-Star start and the Cy Young with his bad start?