Category: MLB

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Let's kick off this beautiful Sunday with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for today's MLB slate.

Find out why I am backing Kyle Stowers, Spencer Jones, and Rafael Devers.

Here are my favorite MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 6.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Kyle Stowers	17%
Spencer Jones	16%
Rafael Devers	22%
💲Today's HR parlay	118.00x

Home run prediction: Kyle Stowers (17%)

Miami Marlins slugger Kyle Stowers has been on a heater, and we have to back him to leave the yard against Chicago Cubs right-hander Clay Holmes.

Over his last few games, Stowers has been generating too much hard contact to ignore. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he has an 83.3% hard-hit rate and a 25% barrel rate. On top of that, he owns a .577 SLG, .977 OPS, and .269 ISO.

According to Batters-Box, where he owns an elite rating today, Stowers covers more than 83% of Holmes' pitch mix.

Despite Holmes' success against left-handed hitters this season, the way Stowers sees and hits the ball makes this hard to pass up.

Take this down to 20%.

• Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MIAM, MARQ

Home run prediction: Spencer Jones (16%)

In my Yankees vs. Padres predictions, I wrote that I liked Ben Rice over Spencer Jones, but I kept coming back to Jones. He is 100% a go this evening.

Jones has been crushing right-handed pitching over his last 30 at-bats, owning a .538 SLG and .307 ISO while generating a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate.

Over the last 60 left-handed hitters Padres starter Michael King has faced, they are generating a barrel rate of nearly 10%, while posting a .291 xBA, .548 xSLG and .406 xwOBA.

Five of Jones' last 10 batted balls have been at least 102 mph off the bat. It is hard to pass up backing a guy making that much hard contact.

Take this down to 20%. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, SDPA

Home run prediction: Rafael Devers (22%)

Another heavy hitter who has been making a boatload of hard contact is San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers. Over his last 10 games, he has generated the third-highest barrel rate while posting a 62.1% hard-hit rate and .949 SLG.

This afternoon, he draws New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott, who has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters. The last 30 lefties he has faced own a .346 xBA, .526 xSLG and .383 xwOBA. Scott is also allowing 2.70 HR/9 during that span.

Devers enters Sunday with the second-highest matchup rating on Batters-Box, where he covers 100% of Scott's pitch mix.

Ride the hot bat.

Take this down to 24%.

• Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, NBCSBA

Best home run combo for Sept. 6

Kyle Stowers	Trade Now 118.00x
Spencer Jones
Rafael Devers

Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!

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Through two games of this Braves-Phillies series, we’re exactly back where we started.

After one win apiece, the Braves’ NL East lead remains four games.

Atlanta can push that back to five or the Phillies can reduce it to three during Sunday afternoon’s 1:10 p.m. ET matchup at Citizens Bank Park, which will be a national broadcast on NBC.

The Braves are turning to Tyler Mahle, who has made a strong case for best deadline rotation addition through his first five starts with Atlanta, while the Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola, who is in the midst of a resurgent stretch himself.

Follow along and share your thoughts below.

Game Info

Preview

Lineups

It should be a very interesting final two weeks to the International League season.

Entering Triple-A play on Sunday, nine teams are within 4.5 games of first place in the second-half IL standings. At the top of those standings are the Rochester Red Wings, Triple-A affiliate of the Washington Nationals, with a 37-25 record. One game back are the Yankees’ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders with a 35-25 record. Those teams will meet in a six-game series starting Monday* at ESL Ballpark in New York.

*There’s a rare Monday game on Labor Day; the two teams will be off on Tuesday and resume the series on Wednesday.

At 82-53 overall, Rochester has the most wins in the IL this season. In the first half, the Red Wings finished one game behind the champion Memphis Redbirds. The RailRiders are 72-62 overall.

In the season series, the RailRiders hold a 10-8 edge, outscoring the Red Wings, 101-94. They took four of six games from April 1-5 in Rochester and four of six from April 21-26 at PNC Field in northeastern Pennsylvania. When Rochester returned in an August 4-9 series, it won four of six.

Both teams are evenly matched. Rochester ranks second in the league in team batting average at .264 and the RailRiders rank third at .262. The RailRiders are second in the league in home runs with 195 and the Red Wings tied for third with 189. Rochester is third in team earned-run average at 4.44, the RailRiders fourth at 4.47.

Trey Lipscomb leads the way for the Red Wings, batting .292 while ranking second in the league in home runs (30) and RBIs (88) and tied for second in hits (135). Phillip Glasser bats .271 with 44 RBIs. Andrew Pinckney hits .270 with 14 home runs and 52 RBIs. Seaver King is the No. 4 prospect in the Nationals organization and is batting .301 with 14 home runs and 43 RBIs. One of his home runs came off Carlos Rodón when the Yankees’ 2025 All-Star lefty was making a rehab start on August 8th at PNC Field.

On the mound, Red Wings right-hander Chander Champlain is 8-5 with a 3.68 ERA, which ranks second in the league, and 85 strikeouts in 120 innings. If his name rings a bell, he was a 2021 ninth-round pick by the Yankees and part of the Royals’ return for Andrew Benintendi in the trade at the 2022 deadline; he signed with the Nats as a minor-league free agent this past offseason. He combined with four relievers on a two-hit shutout of the RailRiders on April 22nd. Two more familiar faces in the bullpen are former RailRiders Yovanny Cruz and Jake Bird, who were in the trade the Yankees made with the Nationals to acquire Luis García Jr. Both were briefly in the Nats’ big-league bullpen after the deadline but have since been sent back to Triple-A.

Oswaldo Cabrera leads the RailRiders in batting at .291 with 17 home runs and 65 RBIs. He is tied for fifth in the league in hits with 128. Yanquiel Fernández is tied for sixth in the league with 24 home runs and tied for third with 78 RBIs. Duke Ellis ranks second in the IL with 49 steals.

Anthony Volpe has provided an offensive spark since being sent down by the Yankees in early August. In 26 games, he is batting .300 with seven doubles, one triple, 10 home runs and 20 RBIs. Five of his home runs have come in the last six games.

“He looks like a man on a mission,” RailRiders manager Shelley Duncan said. “We’re getting a good glimpse of the Anthony Volpe that a lot of the people in New York have fallen in love with. It’s fun to see him play with that freedom, that energy that he has.”

Brendan Beck is the top pitcher in the league, ranking first in innings (125.2), strikeouts (140), ERA (2.86), opponents’ battings average (.204) and WHIP (1.04) and second in wins (9). Rochester did inflict one of Beck’s two losses this season April 26th. However, the right-hander has not lost since, winning seven games with 10 no-decisions. One of the wins came against the Red Wings on August 4th when he tossed six shutout innings and struck out a career-high 12.

While the RailRiders can help themselves against Rochester this week, they also have to be aware of the teams behind them in the standings. The Worcester Red Sox, Indianapolis Indians, St. Paul Saints, Durham Bulls, Syracuse Mets, Columbus Clippers, and Nashville Sounds are all still in the mix and have ideas at making a run at first place.

However, Duncan said the RailRiders can’t get too caught up in scoreboard watching.

“We can only control what we can control and that’s what we’re going to put all our energy into,” Duncan said. “When those games happen, they bring enough energy on their own. To try to induce it by worrying about all that stuff, it’s a trap. Any time you start hunting those on the scoreboard and start letting it get in your head, it’s a trap to get you out of who you are. These guys play hard every single day no matter what situation they’re in. It’s fun to just go out there and win a game regardless.”

While the second-half title likely won’t be clinched this week, the series between the RailRiders and Rochester could go a long way in determining who does.

“I feel like we’re in a good spot to get that first place,” RailRiders pitcher Alexander Cornielle said. “The guys are rolling, coming together more, speaking on stuff as a team that we need to get better at. We support each other and I feel like we’ve hit that point in the season where everything is falling in place. I feel like we have a pretty good chance of making first place. I don’t like to speak on the future, but I’m pretty confident that we have the tools here to make it.”

When Jonah Tong takes the mound for the Mets on Monday afternoon against the Miami Marlins, it will mark his first action in the majors since June 2, and just his fourth appearance overall in the bigs this season. 

But interim manager Andy Green made it clear that Tong will stay in the Mets' rotation for the remainder of the season, giving the young pitcher more clarity than he's had in past call-ups.

"He’s had a good run here recently (with Syracuse) and we want to see him build on it," Green said. "So, I think we’re all excited to see it, and we’ll continue to hand him the ball for the rest of this year. We’re not going to make a secret of that. He’s going to post when it’s his turn to pitch, and he hasn’t really had that knowledge at any point in his big-league career."

"We recognize there’s not a lot of season left, but the season that is left, he’s going to be in the rotation and he’s going to get the baseball."

While his 2026 season hasn’t necessarily gone the way that Tong and many others have hoped, the young right-hander is ready for his next opportunity. 

“Just continue what I’ve been doing all year. Just stacking days and honestly just going out there and having fun,” Tong said on Sunday in the Mets clubhouse. “I find we play our best when we’re out there having fun.”

The 2025 season was certainly a lot of fun for Tong, as he dominated the minor leagues to the tune of a 1.43 ERA and a whopping 179 strikeouts in 113.2 combined innings between Binghamton and Syracuse (mostly with Binghamton).

But his 2025 call-up was a struggle, as he pitched to a 7.71 ERA in five starts, looking like he needed more seasoning before coming back to the majors, and his minor league numbers this season have not been nearly as dominant. 

In 23 games with Syracuse this season, Tong has pitched to a 4.54 ERA, and his strikeout numbers, while still impressive at 126 punchouts in 107 innings, aren’t quite as overpowering as they were a year ago.

“There are so many things that we have control over in our career, and sometimes there are just lessons that have to be learned,” Tong said. “I’m just really excited to see the person that I’ve become out of it.”

Tong, knowing that he's in the rotation for the remainder of the season, is still taking things one day at a time, and he’s focused on being where his feet are, as he likes to say.

“I think just day by day and brick by brick. I’m the same kid I was last year as I am this year,” he said. “The only difference is I just have a boatload of experience that I didn’t have last year. 

“Excited for the opportunity … Just enjoy the process and really take each day as it is.”

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The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins wrap up a series on Sunday Night Baseball, with the White Sox installed as a modest favorite and the total set at 8.5.

The White Sox are turning this into a bullpen day. Bryan Hudson opens, Jose Urquidy follows in bulk relief, and the Twins counter with Bailey Ober, who ranks in the Bottom 10 percentile of baseball in both strikeout rate and whiff rate this year.

Chicago's late-season form is clearly the better of these two clubs, and the way this game is being pitched has my White Sox vs. Twins prediction backing the home team. See why I'm also backing the Over in my MLB picks on Sunday, Sep. 6.

Who will win Twins vs White Sox today: White Sox -1.5 (39%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Minnesota Twins arm Bailey Ober ranks in the Bottom 10th percentile in K rate and whiff rate, and his fastball sits in the Bottom 1st percentile for velocity in baseball. That's why I'm fading him.

That's a specific problem against a Chicago White Sox lineup that already ranks above MLB average in both fly-ball rate (27.8%) and barrel rate (8.4%): they don't need to grind through counts against a low-whiff arm; they need to lift the ball, which is exactly what his profile will invite.

On the other side, you'll get Bryan Hudson as an opener against a lineup he should have success against for at least one frame. Jose Urquidy follows him in an expected bulk role. He hasn't had a great season, but the underlying metrics tell a different story: an actual ERA exceeding 5.00 but an expected ERA at around 3.00.

I'm banking on some of that positive regression coming here against a below-average offense. I'd play this to 41%.

COVERS INTEL: Jose Urquidy's contact profile is generally elite, ranking in the Bottom 20th percentile in both hard-hit and barrel rate allowed. 

Twins vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (50%)

I'm on the Over for two units up to 54%. 

I've covered why I think Ober will struggle enough, which means the White Sox should do the heavy lifting. There's a bit of guesswork on the other side with a semi-bullpen profile game; however, Sean Newcomb is unlikely to be available today, removing one of Chicago's better late-inning arms.

For me, there's a real crooked number threat posed by Chicago, so anything the Twins do is a bonus. However, a thinner White Sox pen behind a short-outing opener does give Minnesota its own window to score. Two lineups with real paths to damage is the Over profile I want. 

Twins vs White Sox home run prediction: Josh Bell (14%)

Josh Bell is a switch-hitter who bats left-handed against right-handers, and it's been his best power split of the year: 12 dingers and a .432 slugging mark in just over 300 ABs against right-handed pitching, ahead of his output against lefties.

Urquidy's extension ranks in the Bottom 9th percentile in baseball, and his fastball velocity in the Bottom 21st, a below-average combination that gives hitters more time to read the ball. I like this matchup for a guy with enough power and a platoon advantage, especially at the price.  

Twins vs White Sox weather

Conditions at Rate Field are expected to be mild: mid-70s, partly cloudy, 10 mph winds and no rain. Nothing here materially juices the total or knocks down fly balls.

Twins vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Twins 43% | White Sox 58%
• Run line: Twins +1.5 | White Sox -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Twins vs White Sox trend

The Over is 6-1-1 in Minnesota's last eight games during Game 3 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.

How to watch Twins vs White Sox and game info

Twins vs White Sox latest injuries

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No matter what may you look at it, this was a tough one. After the San Diego Padres walked off the New York Yankees on Friday night, they took a gut punch in Game 2, losing 5-1. Much of that was thanks to starter Robbie Ray failing to get out of the third inning.

After setting down the first three batters, Ben Rice singled to lead off the second inning. Ray got the next two batters out before giving up a double, three consecutive walks and a two-run single. Ray’s command completely eluded him, after he had looked strong to start the night. That, along with a quiet offense, marked the death of the Padres on Saturday night. They’ll now face New York in the rubber match this afternoon, trying to win their first series in two weeks.

Taking the mound

Gerrit Cole (NYY) v. Michael King (SD)

Cole spent the beginning of 2026 stuck on the injured list. The veteran’s first start of the year came on May 22 after receiving from Tommy John surgery. He’s been solid in that time, pitching to a 3.29 ERA through 104 innings. The strikeout numbers are modest, with 110 K’s in that same time.

But, in his last seven starts. Cole has turned up his game. He’s pitched to a 2.36 ERA across 42 innings. That being said, the last two games have been his worst in that time. Cole has surrendered six runs over his last 11 1/3 innings, giving up three runs in each of his two recent starts. San Diego will try to take advantage of that to win the series finale.

King has been fantastic this year, with a 3.11 ERA to back up that claim. Through 162 innings, King has proved that 2024 was not a fluke, posting incredibly consistent numbers through most of the season. King has been especially fantastic lately, with a 2.86 ERA across his last 15 starts.

Even more so, King hasn’t surrendered a single run since Aug. 19, pitching 16 consecutive scoreless innings. King will look to follow that up versus his former team. The right-hander came over from New York in 2024 in the trade that sent superstar Juan Soto to the Bronx.

Batter up!

It’s no secret that the Padres’ lineup has struggled in their last few games. The offense hasn’t scored more than three runs since last Monday when they scored five against the Cincinnati Reds. In the last four games, San Diego has scored just 2.43 runs per game, on average. They’ll need to do much better to back up King today.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
2. Samad Taylor, LF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Ty France, 1B
5. Jackson Merrill, CF
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS
7. Luis Campusano, DH
8. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
9. Ethan Salas, C

The Padres walked (6) more than they hit (3) on Saturday night, with a truly disheartening performance from the offense. They struck out (12) more times than they reached base. If San Diego can turn the tables on Cole, and win their first series of September, it would be a major turning point for the Friars.

Relief corps

With Ray making it through just 2 1/3 innings, the bullpen was taxed a bit. Thankfully, Griffin Canning and Jhony Brito each covered two-plus innings of work, with Wandy Peralta and David Morgan covering the final two frames. That saved San Diego’s ‘pen for the rubber match just enough.

The Padres will have their high-leverage options in full force. Kyle Hart, Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez will all be available for the rubber game. That, plus King on the mound, should give the Friars all the edge they need to beat New York.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, September 6, 2026, 1:35 p.m. ET

Location: PNC Park – Pittsburgh, PA

Broadcast: 93.7 The Fan (KDKA-FM), SportsNet Pittsburgh / MLB.TV

Pitching Matchup: Walbert Ureña (9-9, 2.85 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (9-11, 3.97 ERA)

The Angels dominated Pittsburgh 6-1 on Saturday thanks to six scoreless innings from Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi entered action with a 5.65 ERA, but was another lefty who shut down the Pirates this year. The Bucs only managed a solo home run from Bryan Reynolds in the bottom of the eighth.

Arizona won, but San Diego lost, meaning the Pirates are five games back of the Diamondbacks for the final wild card. Paul Skenes is on the mound looking to bounce back from a difficult outing against the Giants. Skenes allowed five runs over 4.2 innings and also walked three hitters. A win today would be Skenes’ 10th of the year and match last season’s win total. The Pirates need to win today to have any chance to make up the ground necessary with only 19 games left in the season. 

Sunday notes…

• TRYING TO EVEN THINGS UP: The Cubs have not swept a series at Miami since April of 2019. Two years ago, they won the first two games and lost the third. A win today will make the Cubs’ all-time record at Miami 59-59 and their record at loanDepot Park 23-23. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE; This is the 14th of the Cubs’ 46 series in which they have won the first two games. They are 7-6 in previous third games, but only 1-5 on the road. Their only win was at New York vs. the Mets on June 24. They lost at San Francisco in June; Pittsburgh, Baltimore and St. Louis in July; and Washington on Aug. 13. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• A MATCHING SET: If the Cubs win today, they will be 41-31 on the road — exactly the same as their record at home. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• HOME RUN FACTS: Since hitting a team-record nine home runs last Monday at home vs. the Brewers, the Cubs have hit a total of four: none in their next game, then one in each of the last four. The Cubs won yesterday despite being outhomered, 2-1. They are 18-36 when they have hit fewer homers than they have allowed, 27-18 when they have hit the same number and 36-8 when they have hit more. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: The Cubs homer five times, including three by Alfonso Soriano, and lead the Reds 11-1 going into the bottom of the eighth. They have to hold off four-run rallies by the Reds in both the eighth and ninth to win 14-8. It happened 18 years ago today, Saturday, Sept. 6, 2008.

Cubs lineup:

Marlins lineup:

Clay Holmes, RHP vs. Tyler Phillips, RHP

Clay Holmes with the Cubs: Five starts, 1.55 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, just one home run allowed in 29 innings.

As a member of the Mets last year, Holmes faced the Marlins four times and posted a 3.00 ERA in 21 innings — with NO home runs allowed.

Just keep the ball on the ground, Clay. Current Marlins are batting .209 (9-for-43) against him with no home runs and 15 strikeouts.

Tyler Phillips was the Texas Rangers’ 16th round pick in 2015 out of high school in Texas. Eventually he went to the Phillies on waivers in 2021 and to the Marlins for cash considerations last year.

His only career appearance against the Cubs was a scoreless inning of relief May 21, 2025 in Miami. He began this year in the Marlins bullpen, but has been in the rotation since June 16, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.355 WHIP and 12 home runs allowed in 62 innings. His last start, Sept. 1 vs. the Royals, was very good: five one-hit innings. The Cubs offense, though, is a lot better than Kansas City’s.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network. For Cubs fans in the UK, this game will be on BBC as well as other European channels. Details here.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit the Marlins site Fish On First. If you do go there to interact with Marlins fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Texas Rangers lineup for September 6, 2026, against the Tampa Bay Rays: starting pitchers are MacKenzie Gore for the Rangers and Ian Seymour for the Rays.

Its the final game of a disappointing homestand, with the Rangers needing a win to split the series against the Rays and avoid a losing record in the homestand.

The lineup:

Duran — CF

Seager — SS

Foscue — 2B

Nimmo — RF

Langford — LF

Burger — 1B

O’Hoppe — DH

Diaz — C

Freeman — 3B

1:35 p.m. Central start time. The game is a pick ‘em.

The Phillies and Braves will square off on Sunday afternoon in the third game of their four-game series. The teams split the first two with the Braves winning on Friday and the Phillies rebounding to take the second game.

Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies. The veteran righty has been very good lately, going 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA in August.

Tyler Mahle goes for the Braves. The righthander was acquired via trade at the end of July and has been a solid addition to the Atlanta rotation with a 1.48 ERA in five post-trade starts.

Game time is 1:10 PM and will be televised locally by NBCSP.

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My Yankees vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 6, back New York as a 51% favorite.

After a 5-1 N.Y. win on Saturday, the Yanks look to Gerrit Cole to keep their winning ways alive. First pitch comes to you live from Petco Park at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Who will win Yankees vs Padres today: Yankees (51%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Very simple get-in-and-get-out reasoning: The San Diego Padres have been lifeless at the dish.

Over their last 12 games, they own an 82 wRC+, .128 ISO, and .631 OPS while producing just a 5.9% barrel rate.

That lineup now draws New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who has been nails over his last five starts, owning a 2.97 ERA and 3.02 xERA while allowing just a 3.49% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

Padres starter and former Yankee Michael King has been very solid over his last three starts as well, but the Yankees have been light-years better than the Padres at the dish this past week. Lean on the hot bats and the more consistent arm.

Play to 54%.

COVERS INTEL: Spencer Jones has been crushing right-handed pitching over his last 30 at-bats, owning a .538 SLG and .307 ISO while generating a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate.

Yankees vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (44%)

With how poorly the Padres have been swinging the bat lately and how well Gerrit Cole and Michael King have been on the rubber, this game should stay under this low total.

Cole has been allowing a ton of hard contact over his last five starts, but that comes with being a heavy fastball pitcher.

He still has a 1.12 WHIP over that stretch. King has done a great job limiting hard-hit balls across his last five starts, where he also sports a 1.71 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

This feels like a 3-2 ballgame.

Yankees vs Padres home run prediction: Ben Rice (18%)

Yankees young slugger Ben Rice was the one guy who really stood out to leave the yard in this matchup. I also didn’t mind Spencer Jones or Fernando Tatis Jr., but Rice has been making a ton of hard contact while posting a 15% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.

Over his last 10 games, he also sports a .600 SLG and .659 xSLG while elevating the ball 65.6% of the time.

Yankees vs Padres weather

Ideal baseball weather this afternoon, with temperatures in the mid-80s and a 9 mph wind blowing in. Should make for a beautiful day at the ballpark and a great game to take in.

Yankees vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Yankees 51% | Padres 50%
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 (38%) | Padres +1.5 (63%)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (57%) | Under 6.5 (44%)

Yankees vs Padres trend

The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres.

How to watch Yankees vs Padres and game info

Yankees vs Padres latest injuries

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The Seattle Mariners hope to snap a three-game losing streak when they host the Athletics at T-Mobile Park on Sunday, Sept. 6.

First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET, and my top Athletics vs. Mariners prediction and MLB picks call for a low-scoring game. 

Who will win Athletics vs Mariners today: Athletics moneyline (37%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Though Gage Jump has struggled in recent starts, this is a matchup in which he should be able to limit the damage done against him. The Seattle Mariners bats have struggled against southpaws during the last 30 days, ranking 28th in wRC+, 28th in ISO, and 28th in strikeout rate.  

The Athletics have started to turn a corner at the plate, too. They rank sixth in wRC+, third in batting average, and fifth in ISO against right-handed pitching during the last 14 days. Bryan Woo has thrown the ball well recently, but he's been pitching through a lat injury and could be vulnerable on normal rest, compared to recent outings in which he's been on extended rest.

The Athletics once again have value on the moneyline as they seek a series sweep this afternoon.

COVERS INTEL: The Mariners rank dead last with a .212 batting average against southpaws in 2026.

Athletics vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (52%)

Seattle's bats have not had success against left-handed starters since the All-Star break, ranking 24th in wRC+ during the first five innings of games when facing a southpaw. Gage Jump has been tagged for some crooked numbers in recent outings, but this matchup is still likely to be an uphill challenge for the Mariners offense.

Bryan Woo owns a 2.89 ERA and 4.25 xERA since the beginning of August, allowingtwo earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts during that span. He will have to contend with a surging Athletics offense this afternoon, but this doesn't appear to be a spot in which he's at risk of getting shelled.

Both teams have rested bullpens for the series finale, too, which should limit scoring opportunities in the latter frames.

Athletics vs Mariners home run prediction: Lawrence Butler (14%)

Lawrence Butler has been on a tear since the beginning of August, hitting .355 with a 137 wRC+. Butler has a 9.2% barrel rate and 51.7% hard-hit rate during that span, meaning that he's been elevating and celebrating a lot.

Bryan Woo has allowed a lot of loud contact to left-handed hitters during the last 30 days: 11.4% barrel rate and a 65.7% hard-hit rate.

Butler has a great chance to leave the yard today.

Athletics vs Mariners weather

Weather shouldn't have a significant impact on this afternoon's contest, with the temperature forecasted at 67 degrees around first pitch.

Athletics vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Athletics 37% | Mariners 64%
• Run line: Athletics +1.5 | Mariners -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Athletics vs Mariners trend

The Athletics have cashed the moneyline in six of their last eight road games for +8.85 units and a 111% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Athletics vs. Mariners.

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Some systems are simple and obvious. Put a piece of paper into a shredder and confetti comes out. Put a dirty car through a car wash and it comes out clean . Put a little tray of cake batter into an Easy-Bake Oven and a little cake comes out (or at least, I assume it does. I never had one, even though I always kinda wanted one).

Pitchers, however, are not a a simple and obvious system. A vast array of inputs— pitch type, location, arm angle, grip, and more— go in, and a vast array of outputs—K%, spin, break both horizontal and vertical, so on, so forth— emerge. But the story need not always be complicated. Jesús Luzardo is having the best season of his career, with what would be a career low ERA (3.02) and WHIP (1.12). The output is as good as it’s ever been. So it stands to reason that the input—the pitches he’s throwing— are better than ever before too.

And they are! Only, they’re not. It’s both. Half of them are. Half of them aren’t.

If you’d prefer to think in terms of batting average or slugging percentage, those follow the same pattern. Luzardo’s four-seamer and changeup are worse than last year, and his sinker and sweeper are better. This raises two questions: how is he pitching better, when half of his arsenal got worse? And how did his pitches change?

Let’s start with the first, because it’s fairly simple. For one thing, he’s throwing what is now his worst pitch, his four-seamer, less. It was his primary offering until now (technically, it did dip just beneath his now-extinct slider in 2022) He offered it 33.3% of the time in 2025, and 25.9% of the time this season. The spotlight that was once given to his four-seamer has now been given to his sweeper (38.2% usage, up from 33.3%) and sinker (17.3%, up from 10.8). He’s also removed his sparsely-used slider from the equation. Throw what’s working better more, and what’s not less; that’s a simple recipe for improving your overall output even if not every piece is improving. It also helps that the biggest positive change, the improvement in his sweeper, is in one of his primary offerings, and that the biggest negative change, the decline in his changeup, is in one of his secondaries.

So with that out of the way, what’s happened to the pitches themselves? There is one underlying change that affects all of them: his arm angle has dropped from 32 degrees to 29. His velocity has changed for the changeup (nearly two MPH less than last year), but his other three pitches are coming in at the same speed. Spin-wise, three of his pitches look mostly unchanged, but the changeup is moving differently: last season the spin direction was 9:45 on a clock, and this season it’s 9:00. He’s getting a little more vertical drop on all of his pitches, too, particularly on the sinker.

The improved drop may explain the sinker’s improved performance, or at least part of it. But the sweeper isn’t so different from last year, in terms of movement and velocity. By Stuff+ (a model that measures most everything that goes into a pitch except for location), it’s not meaningfully different from last year. How is he getting better results with it? He’s using it differently, for one thing. He’s dramatically increased his usage of it as a tool to push an advantage over batters, using it 54.3% of the time when he’s ahead in the count (from 37.8% last season), and about half the time when he’s got two strikes on a batter (from 34.1%).

But how about his control? By Location+, (which measures how well the pitcher locates a pitch, but doesn’t take velocity, movement, etc. into account), he’s actually worse at placing it than last year. And by Pitching+, which takes everything into account, the pitch is simply worse than last year (though still above average). Unfortunately, the data for this gets a bit messy: it combines sliders and sweepers, and last year Luzardo was still throwing his slider 6.5% of the time. So he may not actually be worse, or at least, not as much worse as it seems, at locating the sweeper this year. Perhaps he was particularly good at locating the slider, and removing it from his arsenal simply made it look like his control of the remaining sweeper got worse. But as I don’t have the ability to remove the sliders from the 2025 data, that’s just conjecture. It’s just strange that he’s getting such better results with a pitch that might, by some models, be worse.

Some systems are complicated. Luzardo’s sweeper is one of those. It’s not immediately clear to me how he’s getting improved results with it this year. Maybe the arm angle has done something to it that makes it harder for batters to pick up on. Maybe a change in one of his other pitches has had some sort of domino effect. Maybe it’s the changes in how often and in when he’s using it. Maybe pure variance is having an effect. Maybe it’s something finer, something that you’d need a proper pitching guru to see.

I’d really like to know. But I’m also not complaining.

After years of mediocre play, the New York Yankees finally recognized that their window of contention had closed in July 2016, becoming sellers at the Trade Deadline first the first time since before I was born. With Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Beltrán, Iván Nova, and more headed elsewhere, the team brought in a veritable army of young prospects which, added to a stable that included 2016 breakout star Gary Sánchez, the young pitcher Luis Severino, and the mammoth outfielder Aaron Judge, would hopefully usher in a new era in Yankees baseball.

Foremost among these new additions would be a player whose loud personality made him loved by some members of the fanbase and hated by others in equal measure: the Red Thunder himself, Clint Frazier.

Clint Jackson Frazier
Born: September 6, 1994 (Loganville, GA)
Yankees Tenure: 2016-21

Born a little less than an hour outside Atlanta, Frazier established himself as a top prospect while at Loganville High School, where he went up against fellow future big leaguer Austin Meadows, who attended the rival Grayson High School. As a junior, he received an invitation to the Under Armour All-American Baseball Game, and as a senior, posted a .485/.561/1.134 slash line en route to being named the Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year.

As the top high school player in the 2013 draft, Frazier was selected fifth overall by Cleveland, whose $3.5 million signing bonus convinced him to forego his commitment to the University of Georgia and embark on his professional career.

Thanks to his oft-memed “legendary bat speed,” Frazier steadily climbed through the Cleveland farm system, reaching Triple-A in the middle of July 2016. But while he had taken great strides at the plate over his three years in professional ball, he still needed some time in the minors before he’d be ready for The Show. 2016, though, looked to be Cleveland’s best time to strike, and so the front office pushed all its chip into the center of the table and sent a massive package to the Yankees for reliever Andrew Miller – a package headlined, of course, by Frazier.

The young redhead immediately became the organization’s top prospect, rivaled only by fellow newcomer Gleyber Torres, formerly of the Cubs and acquired for Miller’s bullpenmate, Aroldis Chapman. With Judge, Sánchez, Tyler Austin (who also celebrates a birthday today!), and Mason Williams already receiving regular at-bats in the Bronx, the Yankees opted to send their new outfielder to Scranton, where he posted a .228/.278/.396 slash in 25 games.

Heading into the 2017 season, Frazier projected as the Yankees’ left fielder of the future — assuming, of course, that he continued to develop his pitch recognition. Unfortunately, in what would become a sign of things to come, unnecessary drama — at least partially imposed by others — began to follow him. Articles about his long red locks and the Yankees’ age-old (and very outdated) grooming policy, plus a false report that he wanted Mickey Mantle’s No. 7, made him a lightning rod for criticism, as the media looked for the baseball equivalent of Odell Beckham Jr., i.e. a player guaranteed to generate outrage, and therefore, clicks.

Despite the noise, Frazier performed on the diamond, eventually making his MLB debut in July 1st after fellow Baby Bomber suffered a devastating injury in the first inning of his debut the day before. He notched his first career hit with a sixth-inning leadoff double, and his first career homer to lead off the next frame. Seven days later, a three-run-shot off Milwaukee closer Corey Knebel gave the Yankees a 5-3 victory, his first walk-off bomb if his career.

Frazier ultimately appeared in 39 games as a rookie, missing time with an oblique injury, and while the team left him off the postseason roster, it looked like a lock that he would fill some kind of role for the 2018 Yankees, with a chance to earn a starting spot out of spring training. And then, everything went sideways.

First, the Yankees added reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, giving the Yankees the most crowded outfield in baseball, with Judge, Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury all under contract (at the time, we didn’t know Ellsbury had played his last game in pinstripes). Then, on February 24, 2018, Frazier suffered the first of many concussions after colliding into the wall. Not only did these injuries limit him to 69 games between Triple-A and the Majors, it also meant that, when the team broke camp in 2019, they wanted Frazier to spend more time in the minors. Of course, the 2019 Yankees being the #NextManUp squad, they needed to recall Frazier almost immediately. The Red Thunder ran with his opportunity, slashing .324/.343/.632 with six home runs in 18 games …. and then sprained his left ankle, becoming the 15th member of the team to hit the injured list.

Upon his return to the lineup in May, Frazier struggled defensively, piling up miscues and errors — and not hitting well enough to overcome the mistakes — to the point that the team sent him down on June 16th after the sudden and unexpected acquisition of Edwin Encarnación. Meanwhile, he reinforced a poor reputation with the media, as he refused to talk to reporters after games and pointedly taking his full contractually-allowed three days to report to Scranton after his demotion. Since Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford, and even Cameron Maybin had continued to rake in The Show, the Yankees kept Frazier in the minors the rest of the year, with him making a cameo as a part-time player once the division had been locked up in September to keep the starters healthy down the stretch.

After years of underperformance, controversies, and injuries, the 2020 season represented Frazier’s last chance at making a good impression and carving out a role in the Bronx. Fortunately for him, he delivered. Thanks to injuries to Judge and Stanton, Frazier — fully free of concussion symptoms for the first time since 2018 — found himself penciled into the lineup on pretty much a daily basis, and he responded with a .267/.394/.511 slash line while earning a Gold Glove nomination in what was a weak year for corner outfielders. More importantly, he proved that he could be a positive role model off the field, wearing a mask while playing in order to do his part to slow the spread of COVID-19 during some of the worst days of the crisis — earning him the nickname I still call him today, “The Masked Swinger” (hey, “The Masked Singer” was a pretty fun show to pass the time with during the COVID shutdown).

Unfortunately, that season would prove to be the high point of Frazier’s career, as the young outfielder made a critical mistake. In a game against the Blue Jays that September, No. 77 suffered another concussion, and, afraid of disrupting his breakout campaign, opted not to tell the team. Still suffering from concussion-related symptoms, he began the 2021 season as the team’s everyday left fielder, struggled at the plate and in the field, and was placed on the injured list on July 1st with vision problems and vertigo. When he pulled himself from a rehab game that August, his Yankees career was effectively over. Frazier was designated for assignment that November, as the team turned to trade acquisition Joey Gallo to man left field.

Frazier played the next two years in Chicago, splitting 52 games between the North and South Sides. Ultimately, though, the injuries caught up to him, and after spending 2024 in the Atlantic League with the Charleston Dirty Birds, decided to hang up the spikes.

These days, Frazier hosts a podcast, occasionally making waves as he talks Yankees baseball, and while he often draws ire from fans (and even occasionally former teammates), he has sometimes shed light on the behind-the-scenes workings of the Aaron Boone Yankees. He remains to this day a polarizing figure. Still, as I look back on Frazier’s career on his 32nd birthday, I can’t help but look at those few stretches in which he was healthy and wonder, “What would have happened if Clint Frazier had never crashed into that outfield wall?”

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (70-66) won 9-2 (BOX SCORE)

Mayer got the start for Sugar Land and went 5 innings allowing 2 runs, 1 earned. The offense got on the board in the first inning scoring 2 runs on a Price 2 run home run. They got 2 more runs in the 2nd inning on a Spence 2 run home run. In the third, the offense scored 2 again on a Biggio sac fly and Dezenzo RBI double. The offense added on with a Cole solo home run in the 7th inning and back to back home runs from Delgado and Guillemette in the 8th. The pen was great tossing 4 scoreless innings as they closed out the 9-2 win.

Note: Loperfido is hitting .292 in Triple-A.

• Zach Cole, CF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Joey Loperfido, LF: 3-for-4, 2 R
• Collin Price, C: 1-for-2, R, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB
• Zach Dezenzo, 1B: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI
• Ray Delgado, SS: 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, RBI
• Garret Guillemette, DH: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Lucas Spence, RF: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI

• Bryce Mayer, RHP: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (59-72) lost 6-5 (BOX SCORE)

DeVos started for the Hooks and pitched 4 innings allowing 4 runs, 3 earned. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Bush RBI single. After the Cardinals got a run in the 5th, the Hooks responded with 4 runs to tie it on a Call solo home run, Whitaker solo home run and Schiavone 2 run double. Leach allowed a run in the eighth as the Cardinals took the lead, and the Hooks’ offense was unable to respond in the ninth as Corpus Christi fell, 6-5.

Note: Thomas has a .855 OPS in Double-A.

• Tyler Whitaker, RF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Justin Thomas, CF: 3-for-4, 2 R, 2B, SB
• Will Bush, C: 1-for-2, R, RBI, 2 BB
• Jason Schiavone, 1B: 1-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI, BB
• Hector Salas, DH: 2-for-4
• Chase Call, LF: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI

• Nolan DeVos, RHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• Joey Mancini, RHP: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (43-86) lost 11-4 (BOX SCORE)

Smith started for Asheville and went 4 innings allowing 5 runs, 3 earned. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Walker RBI double and a run on an error. They picked up another run in the 6th inning on a Garcia RBI single. The bullpen struggled as Baez allowed 4 runs and Ogando allowed 2 runs. Asheville got a run in the 9th on a Neyens RBI double but that was it as they fell 11-4.

Note: Moss is hitting .333 in Asheville.

• Anthony Huezo, LF: 1-for-4, SB
• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-5, 2B, RBI
• Caden Powell, RF: 1-for-4, BB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 2-for-4, R, 2B
• Nick Monistere, 2B: 1-for-4, R, 2B, SB
• Kyle Walker, DH: 1-for-4, R, 2B, RBI, BB
• John Garcia, C: 2-for-3, R, RBI, BB

• Parker Smith, RHP: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Jhoster Baez, RHP: 2.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 3 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Yosweld Vasquez, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (71-58) lost 2-0 (BOX SCORE)

Ardines started for the Woodpeckers and was solid allowing 1 run over 4 innings of work. He was relieved by Estridge who tossed 3 innings allowing one run. While the pitching staff only allowed 2 runs on 2 hits, the offense had a tough day as they were shutout in the 2-0 loss.

Note: Estridge has a 4.35 ERA this season.

• Kam Durnin, SS: 2-for-4, 2 2B

• Adrian Ardines, RHP: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 2 K
• Carson Estridge, RHP: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• John Carver, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Josh Hendrickson – 6:35 CT

CC: James Hicks – 5:05 CT

AV: Dylan Howard – 5:05 CT

FV: TBD – 1:00 CT