Category: MLB

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Toronto Blue Jays slugger George Springer is heating up at the plate, and a matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax has me believing that his hot play continues tonight. 

Read on to see why with my Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB Picks on Wednesday, May 13.

Rays vs Blue Jays predictions

Rays vs Blue Jays best bet: George Springer Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

We’re starting to see signs of last year’s George Springer coming to life in 2026.

The Toronto Blue Jays DH has five hits in his last four games, averaging 1.5 bases per game in that stretch, going Over the number in two of his last three outings. 

If he’s getting back to his 2025 self, that would make today a plus-pitching matchup with Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Griffin Jax on the mound.

Jax throws the sweeper to righties more than any other pitch in his arsenal. Last season, Springer had a .343 average against the sweeper.

Additionally, Springer is 3-for-5 against Jax in his career with a pair of home runs.

COVERS INTEL: Jax ranks in the 26th percentile with a 4.87 xERA this season.

Rays vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Ernie Clement seems to be heating up again with eight hits in his last four games. It’s also a good matchup with a sweeper-tosser on the mound, as Clement owns a .385 against the pitch. He’s also 1-for-4 against Jax lifetime. 

For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll add Jax to go Under 3.5 strikeouts. 

Firstly, the Jays have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Additionally, Jax isn’t stretched out enough to go deep, topping out at 59 pitches this season. Fewer batters means less opportunity for Ks.

Rays vs Blue Jays SGP

• George Springer Over 1.5 total bases
• Ernie Clement Over 0.5 hits
• Griffin Jax Under 3.5 strikeouts

Rays vs Blue Jays home run pick: George Springer (+425)

I’m making this a half-unit wager

Jax owns a 57.7% ground-ball rate, ranking in the 95th percentile. This has led to just two homers against him this season. 

However, Jax does give up hard contact, ranking in the 16th percentile in baseball. So if Someone gets lift on the ball, it could find the seats. 

The one player in the Jays lineup who has done this in the past is Springer. He has two home runs in just five career at-bats against Jax.

Additionally, the Rays bullpen boasts the eighth-highest HR/9 in MLB.

Rays vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Rays +110 | Blue Jays -130
• Run line: Rays +1.5 (-160) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Rays vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Rays vs Blue Jays and game info

Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Rays vs Blue Jays weather

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LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers swept the New York Mets four weeks ago, their second sweep in four series at Dodger Stadium at that point, running their record to 14-4. It feels like a lifetime ago now.

The Dodgers also won their next game, the series opener at Coors Field for a 15-4 record. They did not win that series. They’ve lost the first two games of this four-game series against the San Francisco Giants, which means they won’t win this series either. The Dodgers have only won two of their last eight series, going just 9-14 since that hot start, including six losses in their last seven home games.

After leaving a four-game series at Coors Field on April 20, the Dodgers have scored only 3.75 runs per game, hitting just .235/.322/.364 with a 96 wRC+, ranking 24th in MLB in slugging percentage during that time and tied for 20th with 18 home runs in 20 games, after hitting 42 home runs in their first 22 games.

“When you’re not really slugging, or you’re not throwing out double-digit hits a night, then the opportunities are few and far between. Our margins on the offensive side are more finite,” manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday. “You get a guy to second base to lead off an inning, you’ve got to get them to third, and then you try to get that point across. We’re just not doing that, on top of not slugging and not creating a bunch of traffic and stress.”

Two losses this week against the Giants have been different, at least offensively. On Monday night the Dodgers had 10 hits and plenty of chances, with just two hits in 10 at-bats with runners in scoring position. On Tuesday, they totaled only four hits against Adrian Houser and company, and did not collect a hit in their all of three at-bats with runners in scoring position. All three of those at-bats were with the bases loaded, in the first and eighth innings, plus a sacrifice fly that brought home the Dodgers’ first run.

“It’s on us to get those runs in when we can, because it’s not easy with the pitching you’re facing in this league,” right fielder Kyle Tucker said. “Whenever you have opportunities in this league, you have to capitalize on it.”

The Dodgers with the bases loaded this season have eight hits, including a home run and double in 39 at-bats with the bases loaded, plus two walks and five sacrifice flies, hitting .205/.217/.308 with a 39 wRC+ that ranks 28th out of 30 teams.

In the Dodgers’ last 13 games, they’ve scored three or fewer runs 10 times, going 4-9 with a pair of four-game losing streaks. With runners in scoring position over those last two weeks, they are hitting .242/.345/.326 with a 92 wRC+ that ranks 20th in the majors, and they are also tied for 20th in total plate appearances in those situations, at just 8.77 per game.

“When you don’t get a whole lot of opportunities, and you don’t cash in on the couple that you do get, you don’t score a lot of runs,” Roberts said.

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The Milwaukee Brewers have now won five in a row after taking the series opener against the visiting Padres.

It promises to be a pitchers’ duel for game two, but Milwaukee has its ace on the mound in Jacob Misiorowski.

It’s tough to imagine San Diego finding answers to its batting slump against the Miz. So, my Padres vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks call for a Brewers victory on Wednesday, May 13.

Who will win Padres vs Brewers today: Brewers moneyline (-148)

The Milwaukee Brewers’ streak has an impressive level of difficulty. Their opponents in the five wins were all playoff teams with a combined 129-82, .611 record. For the season, Milwaukee has beaten winning teams two thirds of the time.

The San Diego Padres continue to flounder at the plate. They struck out 13 times and managed just eight hits on Tuesday, against a previously winless rookie starter, and their four-run output was above average for the recent stretch.

San Diego has been shut out as many times in the last 10 games as it has reached five runs (two each). Now they face Jacob Misiorowski.

COVERS INTEL:The Brewers pitchers have stepped up their performance against winning teams. They’re more than one run better (2.64 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, .198 average against) compared to losing ones (3.81, 1.313, 9.0, .239).

Padres vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-133)

The last thing a slumping offense needs is to face MLB’s strikeout leader. Misiorowski has fanned 70 in 44 innings including 19 in the last 11.1.

He threw the seven fastest four-seamers in the pitch-tracking era in his last start and is 99^th percentile in velocity and strikeout rate, 98^th in swing-and-miss. And his breaking stuff ranks even higher than his fastball.

The Padres start Michael King, who has a 2.76 ERA and allows just 5.5 hits per nine innings. He hasn’t been as dominant as The Miz, but his stuff is in the top 12% of baseball, and his exit velocity and hard hit percentage allowed are both in the top 20%.  

Padres vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: San Diego +138 | Milwaukee -144
• Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-170) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+163)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+127) | Under 7.5 (-133)

Padres vs Brewers trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers.

How to watch Padres vs Brewers and game info

Padres vs Brewers latest injuries

Padres vs Brewers weather

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We’re a little more than a quarter of the way into what’s shaping up to be a profoundly disappointing season for the Blue Jays. I want to dig a bit into each of the guys who’s on the roster and has received significant playing time this year to figure out what’s going on and whether we might hope for improvement the rest of the way. To keep things simple, as I’ve done the last couple of years I’m going to pick one number that I think represents the arc of each player’s season to date. Today, the hitters.

• Tyler Heineman: 44.9% chase rate. Heineman is always an aggressive hitters, swinging about 52% of the time for his career. That makes sense, as a pretty good knack for contact is his only real offensive asset. This season, though, he’s getting over-aggressive out of the zone without swinging more inside it, and it’s cratered his production.
• Brandon Valenzuela: 3 Framing Runs Above Average. The Jays acquired Valenzuela to be their long term backup catcher because they’re believers in his glove. He’s impressed at the plate so far as well, but that will likely regress. The defense is shaping up to be everything promised, though, with top tier framing grades, an easy plus arm, and good blocking to boot.
• Vladimir Guerrero jr: 9.0% barrel rate. After the pitching staff, Vlad might be the biggest disappointment so far. The reason is that he’s just not squaring it up. His barrel rate is his worst since 2020, hindered by a lower launch angle and fewer hard hit balls. His bat speed looks normal, and his max exit velocity is in line, so he seems healthy, but he’ll need to make an adjustment soon if they have any hope of crawling out of their current hole.
• Ernie Clement: -3 outs above average at second base. Ernie is normally an ace defender, with elite career grades at second and third and solid ones at short, but this year his range appears to be way down for some reason. He’s hitting fine, but he’s here for the glove and something just isn’t working right there.
• Andres Gimenez: 5 home runs. Andres is on pace to set a career high for homers. The underlying stats don’t support that being really in any way, though. He looks like a significant regression candidate, which isn’t great to be saying about a guy with an 87 wRC+
• Kazuma Okamoto: 69.2% contact rate. This one’s really a story of a trend. Through 25 games, Okamoto’s contact rate sat at 67.6%. That’s right on the borderline of what’s viable for an MLB hitter. In the 16 games since, it’s been a much more comfortable 72.6%, and seems to have plateaued there. Oak’s power isn’t in any doubt, his approach looks strong, and he’s sticking at third just fine. He just needs to hit enough to let the rest of his game sing, and it looks like he’s making the adjustments to pass that test.
• Jesus Sanchez: 43.2% fast swing rate. Sanchez isn’t getting his A swing off as often as he usually does (56.6% over the past two seasons). He’s still hit for a little power, but if he gets comfortable we could see a jump in production.
• Nathan Lukes: 1.8% walk rate. Lukes was chasing all over the place early in the season. Perhaps that had to do with the vertigo issues he was battling. Things were trending in the right direction as he found his footing in the six games before he went out with a hamstring injury, so hopefully he’ll be able to be his usual steady self when he returns.
• Davis Schneider: 18.2% pulled air rate. Schneider lives and dies by his ability to pick the right pitch and yank it down the line in the air. Right now, the eye is working (21% walk rate) but the swing isn’t, and he’s delivering those pulled balls in the air about 10% less often than usual. The good news is that he’s always been streaky, and when it clicks he’s liable to go on a tear.
• Yohendrick Pinango: 88.9% contact rate. You can’t say a ton about 34 PAs, but Pinango has proven that he can keep up with MLB pitching already. He’s going to have to work on elevating the ball more for his excellent power to play, but a sub-12% strikeout rate will earn him plenty of time to adjust.
• Daulton Varsho: 27.1 feet per second sprint speed. Varsho hasn’t been running like he usually does, dropping from the 77^th to the 49^th percentile for sprint speed. As a result his defence has been more solid than exceptional so far. He’s also having a weird year at the plate, although not a particularly bad one. The defence is the thing with him, though, and like Clement it just hasn’t been clicking this season.
• Myles Straw: 124 wRC+. Sure. But it kind of looks real! Straw’s lengthened his swing slightly and is swinging harder, while triggering earlier to actually meet the ball farther out front. As a result, he’s pulling it more than he has and elevating more than he has in years, producing a career best ISO that’s supported by the underlying data. He’s doing that while making the most contact of his career and still not chasing much. It’s probably just a hot streak, but Myles Straw: above average MLB hitter is at least on the table now. Baseball is weird.
• George Springer: 24.8% squared up rate. One of the new StatCast bat metrics, squared up rate tracks the percentage of balls in play where the batter got most of the possible exit velocity on the ball given how hard the pitch was and how hard they swung. George was at 32.8% over the past two seasons. His discipline, contact, and bat speed all look fine, which is to say this doesn’t look like a collapse, it looks like he’s close to 2025 Springer but isn’t quite locked in. There’s hope for probably the most disappointing Blue Jay this season.

1957
White Sox pitcher Billy Pierce became the first member of the team (and the first Chicago athlete) to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated, with the headline “Pride of Chicago.” In 1957, the year the magazine cover came out, Pierce went 20-12 with a 3.26 ERA. It was his second straight 20-win season, and he led the league with 16 complete games, four shutouts, two saves, 257 innings and 192 strikeouts.

1959
Future Hall-of-Famer and White Sox manager Larry Doby was purchased from the Detroit Tigers for $30,000. It was Doby’s second stint on the South Side and third under manager Al Lopez, who seemed to carry an irrational distaste for Doby. At 35, the outfielder didn’t have any gas left in the tank, seeing action in just 21 games for the eventual pennant-winners, with a .560 OPS and -0.3 WAR. He was not active for the World Series, and in fact did not play after July 26, when he struck out in what would become his last plate appearance in the majors.

1975
White Sox pitcher Jim Kaat’s 12-game winning streak ended, losing 3-2 in Baltimore. Kaat had won his first five decisions in 1975 to follow his final seven in 1974. He’d become a 20-game winner in both seasons, averaging 290 innings pitched. Kaat made the All-Star team in 1975. 

1982
SportsVision made its debut. The first regional pay cable service devoted exclusively to sports began operations with a game at Comiskey Park vs. Milwaukee. The service was the brainchild of White Sox co-owner Eddie Einhorn and while brilliant, was ahead of its time. The technology wasn’t there, and more importantly, fans weren’t ready to pay for something they had been getting for free all their lives. At its peak, roughly 20,000 fans subscribed to the channel, which also included Bulls, Blackhawks and pro soccer Sting games.

The decision to go to a pay service caused popular announcer Harry Caray to bolt the team for the Cubs after 11 seasons on the South Side, despite a richer offer from the Sox for 1982. SportsVision, in its original version, lasted until the end of 1983, when it was sold to the Cablevision Company and turned into SportsChannel-Chicago. 

The White Sox, to their credit, put on a show for the first SportsVision game, banging out 20 hits to rout the Brewers, 13-2. LaMarr Hoyt went the distance, running his record to 7-0 and keeping the White Sox in first place in the AL West.

1988
Sure, when Harold Baines clubbed a third-inning home run to bring in two runs of an eventual 4-1 win vs. Toronto, it brought the White Sox back to .500 at 16-16. But the real consequence of Baines’ fifth round-tripper of the season was that it was the 155th of his career, passing Bill Melton to reach the top of the team’s all-time home run list. Melton had held the White Sox home run mark for 13 years.

Baines remains No. 5 on the White Sox dinger list, which is now led by Frank Thomas, with 448. Melton is still in the Top 10, ranking No. 9 in White Sox history.

2011
With the A’s trailing the White Sox, 4-3, in the eighth inning, Coco Crisp attempted heroism by stealing home, with southpaw Matt Thornton pitching. Crisp failed, with A.J. Pierzynski applying the tag, as the White Sox end up winning by the same one-run margin.

2025
By curious decree demanded by no one, commissioner Rob Manfred reinstated all players from the ineligible list, employing the logic that death should break any “ban” on them by MLB. Thus the Black Sox were reduced from stain to smudge. Joe Jackson and Ed Cicotte, in particular, are now eligible for the Hall of Fame.

John Ryan Murphy: a name that lives rent-free in my brain. Why? No one knows, other than the fact it sounds more like a nursery rhyme than the name of a former big-league catcher.

Murphy was once on the long list of Yankees right-handed catchers. Remember those days when Francisco Cervelli was the primary catcher, Gary Sánchez was the top prospect, and Austin Romine was viewed as a potential big-league starter and all were in the organization? And that was all shortly after New York traded then-uber-prospect Jesús Montero for 22-year-old Mariners All-Star Michael Pineda. How has all that already been over a decade ago?

John Ryan Murphy
Born: May 13, 1991 (Bradenton, FL)
Yankees Tenure: 2013-2015

Born in Florida, Murphy’s father hailed from the cold streets of Buffalo, New York and his mother immigrated from Cuba. Carolina Murphy spent over thirty years working at the somewhat-infamous IMG Academy in a variety of roles including serving as the tennis coach.

Using the college-like approach to scheduling, that Murphy would develop into an intriguing prospect especially with the bat at IMG. However, his stock skyrocketed after his coaches decided to move him to the catching position for his senior season.

The move paid off as Murphy was selected by the Yankees in the second round of the 2009 MLB Draft, 42nd overall. Murphy signed with New York, forgoing his scholarship to Miami, the only college he had even entertained. It was a move Murphy later said he did not regret and described it as a family decision.

After signing with the Yankees, Murphy—then known in Yankees circles as “J.R. Murphy”—made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League later that same week in his hometown of Bradenton. Since Murphy was still very new to the position his first few seasons in the minor leagues were spent focusing on refining his skills behind the dish. However, the bat that scouts originally liked was developing with each promotion within the system and earned him a minor-league All-Star selection in 2012.

Murphy put himself on the map for many fans when, as a non-roster invitee, he hit .364 in spring training before the 2013 campaign. Later that year, the 22-year-old was added to the 40-man roster and called up on September 1st. Murphy made his debut the next day pinch-hitting for Robinson Canó.

Perhaps the biggest moment Murphy had in pinstripes came a few weeks later on September 26th when he caught the final pitch legendary closer Mariano Rivera ever threw. It was a moment now forever etched in history: Murphy stood in awe as Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte came out of the dugout to take the ball from Mo. Murphy has previously confirmed he has a copy signed by all three legends.

The following season, Murphy would ride the Scranton shuttle a few times serving as the backup along with Cervelli for the newly acquired Brian McCann. In the backup role Murphy appeared in 32 games slashing .284/.318/.370 with a .688 OPS (95 wRC+), which are solid numbers off the bench for an above-average defensive catcher. He also got to hit his first career homer, a solo shot at Yankee Stadium on April 26th against the Angels’ Hector Santiago.

Entering the 2015 season the backup catching role behind McCann was up for grabs with Cervelli traded to the Pirates, and a motivated Murphy won the job out of spring training. Murphy stayed at the MLB level the entire season. Following the Midsummer Classic, Murphy found his groove at the plate and finished the season on a hot streak. He finished the season with three home runs, nine doubles, and a .277/.327/.406 slash line with a .734 OPS. Murphy had a much-memed moment during the playoff-clinching celebration and a particularly memorable homer to break a tie in the ninth inning on July 25th against the Twins. Still 24 years old, the bat seemed to have found the footing scouts had identified.

The Yankees would use this performance—and their depth at the catching position with a surging Sánchez—to move Murphy that offseason. In a deal now a touch notorious in the eyes of some fans, Murphy was sent to the Minnesota Twins for erstwhile top prospect Aaron Hicks. The deal shocked Murphy and though he saw the opportunity that opened for him he was never able to find his stride in Minnesota. Over parts of three seasons in the Bronx, Murphy appeared in 115 games for the Yankees. For what it’s worth, this was a steal for the Yankees, as while Hicks lagged in 2016, he was an excellent player for playoff teams in the next two seasons, with 42 homers and 6.6 fWAR in 225 games, along with a 128 wRC+. (The extension is a whole other matter.)

Murphy started the 2016 season on the Twins roster but a long slump at the start of the season saw him demoted to Triple-A. Despite the trials Murphy remained positive. The Twins and his teammates spoke very highly of Murphy’s character and leadership.

After starting the 2017 season in the minors with the Twins, Murphy was traded in July to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Gabriel Moya. Murphy spent parts of the next three seasons in the desert (getting punched out for former batterymate CC Sabathia’s 3,000th career strikeout) before the Atlanta Braves purchased his contract in July of 2019.

Murphy only got into a single game for Atlanta. Following the 2019 season Murphy, was a free agent for the first time. On January 10, 2020 he signed a contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

For the Pirates, Murphy appeared in 25 games during the COVID-shortened season. It still feels odd seeing photos of MLB games with empty seats. Once the season officially ended, Murphy was outrighted off the roster and his playing career was over.

However, Murphy could not stay away from the game for long! In 2023 he was hired by the Philadelphia Phillies as a player development instructor and was then hired by the club full-time for the following season as a position coach for the Clearwater Threshers. Murphy was also enshrined in the IMG Academy’s inaugural Hall of Fame class in November 2025.

In addition to baseball, Murphy lives up to his “Choir Boy” nickname off the field by being very hands-on in his commitment to help others. Murphy is the co-founder of the IamMore Foundation which aims to help children who have been diagnosed with a chronic condition reinvent their self-image. Additionally, Murphy is involved with the Miracle League of Greater Dayton and other causes that support individuals on the spectrum.

Good for you, John Ryan Murphy, and happy birthday too!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

The 2026 MLB draft cycle is officially under way!

When: July 11 – July 13

Where: Philadelphia, PA

TV/Streaming: MLB Network

Top Mariners Selections: 24, 65, 101

After nearly running the draft lottery table and selecting top pitching prospect Kade Anderson with the third overall pick in the 2025 iteration of the MLB draft, the Mariners find themselves with a far more tame collection of draft capital this season. Armed with nothing but the standard slate of draft picks (the M’s had to part with their Comp B pick in the Brendan Donovan trade), the M’s are toward the bottom of the pack in overall spending power, coming in at 24th overall. 

The last time the Mariners found themselves in this draft capital position, they opted to swing big on their first two selections, taking RHP Jurrangelo Cijntje for a full-slot amount in the first round and RHP Ryan Sloan for a well above-slot value in the second. This, naturally, tanked the rest of their draft pool and forced them to get more conservative with their subsequent picks, but they still managed to pick up some relief talent in Hunter Cranton, Charlie Beilenson, Brock Moore, and Christian Little in the later rounds. It’s far from a blueprint, but they’ve tended to take their shots early and look for value in the back half of the draft where they can find it.

This is a strong crop of talent this 2026 cycle. With what’s considered one of the better groups of players this decade, the M’s will have little trouble landing a top talent in the back half of the first round. They’ve leaned on college pitching and high school position players heavily in the past, and fortunately for them, the pocket they draft in should have several different options that fit that prototype. We’re still a few months out from decision days, but with the bulk of the college season completed and high school baseball wrapping up shortly, we have a pretty good idea as to where players will stand come draft day. There’s usually one player every year that vaults their way up during postseason play, but on large, we’re pretty close to dialed in.

We’ll be breaking down players that we feel could be good targets for the Mariners weekly, factoring in team fit, historical trends, and industry rankings as much as possible. Maybe the M’s buck their trend and select a high school arm with their first pick, for example, but because there’s little indication we have (right now) that that’s reasonable, it’s not something we’ll be looking all that much into. It’s impossible to know exactly what they’ll do, but our aim is to provide as best of a guess as we can with the context we have to work with.

Sound off in the comments on any particular players you’d like to see covered these coming months!

On Tuesday afternoon, the Phillies had some minor league shakeups with their rosters that was akin to rearranging deckchairs. They needed some pitchers here, a few hitters there, but they snuck through a minor league signing that at least had a bit of intrigue.

If the name rings a bell, it probably should. Drafted in 2016 by the Cardinals, Carlson rose through the St. Louis system to become one of their top prospects, a piece considered key to their future. In 2020, he made his debut with the team during the Covid-shortened season, not hitting particularly well, but also not embarrassing himself. The following year, he ended hitting .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs and 65 RBI, looking every bit the piece of the Cardinals’ outfield of the future.

Since then, it has been a steady downhill slide. He hasn’t approached anything near those numbers, be it through ineffectiveness or through injury. The latter part has been a bugaboo around him with injuries to his hamstring, ankle, oblique, shoulder and thumb. Since being traded by the Cardinals at the 2024 deadline, Carlson has begun the nomadic nontender journey that many players who were once top prospects find themselves on. He has gone to the Rays, then to the Orioles, then this spring training to the Cubs. It’s his release from the Cubs that has landed him here with the Phillies organization, hoping to provide some depth in their Lehigh Valley outfield.

Which brings us to the part that concerns us most: is there really anything interesting about Carlson other than being someone who can stand in the outfield?

The short answer is no.

The longer, more detailed answer is no, not really.

Carlson’s value at the plate comes from a discerning batting eye that saw him having walk rates in the eight, nine and ten percent range. He rarely chases pitches out of the zone, so his best skill is that of patience. Usually, pairing that with power upon contact and there is something a team can work with, even with the below average defense Carlson provides in the corners. Yet this power has never really re-appeared at the major league level. His slugging percentages have fallen in each of the seasons he has played in the major leagues with the major power indicators under the hood dipping with them.

He simply doesn’t impact the ball enough when making contact to make any kind of a difference. Pitchers have made that abundantly clear as they have continually started throwing the ball in the zone more often as he has continued playing in the majors, knowing that even if he hits it, it’s not leaving the yard.

He does pull the ball in the air a lot though!

Listen, the team’s outfield depth is an issue. We can all plainly see that Felix Reyes needs work at the minor league level to continue his development. The issue is that there really isn’t anyone else capable of coming up and doing the job that he currently does. Maybe they decide it’s time to bring back Otto Kemp, maybe they give Carlson a few days to round back into playing shape before giving him a crack at the job.

But if you’re looking for a sneaky minor league signing that could give larger dividends, this probably isn’t it.

Worcester: L, 2-7 (BOX SCORE)

As has often been the case due to the fact that so many of their Opening Day rotation members are now pitching in Boston, the WooSox ran into some early trouble and it didn’t get any better as the night went on. Raymond Burgos gave up three early runs (though just one earned) to the Bison (Blue Jays AAA) and, though he steadied with three solid innings to finish his five frames, it didn’t get any better in relief. Meanwhile, the WooSox bats were pretty quiet throughout Tuesday’s contest, as the team managed just four hits, just one of those being an extra-base hit. It is also funny that Vinny Capra, one of MLB’s worst hitters in his time with the White Sox and Brewers, is raking in Triple-A, with an OPS over 1.000. I don’t believe this would translate in Boston and still believe Capra’s purpose as an MLB veteran and someone who is solid defensively is to mentor the guys in Triple-A, but the success is worth noting.

Portland: L, 6-7 (BOX SCORE)

In a contest that did not finish until after 10:30, the Red Sox fans in attendance in Hartford, CT against the Yard Goats (Rockies AA) were subjected to being walked off despite everything going Portland’s way to start. Hayden Mullins had yet another passable start, striking out eight. He did give up three runs in his five innings, but that’s ok because the Sea Dogs scored four in the first inning alone including two home runs from Johanfran Garcia and Marvin Alcantara. Unfortunately, though, Portland couldn’t slam the door, as they gave up two runs in the eighth and the eventual walk off home run in the ninth. And, ho hum, another two hits for Franklin Arias.

Greenville: L, 1-5 (BOX SCORE)

Greenville has still only won once in the month of May. That continued Tuesday against the Hot Rods (Rays High-A) as Kyson Witherspoon, who’s really been struggling since being drafted in the first round last year, had another tough start, giving up four runs on six hits while walking three and striking out just one. He didn’t make it out of the fifth, and he didn’t get the run support the team needed, either, as the Drive were sat down on strikes 11 times and had just one extra-base hit.

Salem: : L, 0-4 (BOX SCORE)

You know it’s going to be a tough day at the office when you have as many hits (3) as defensive errors. It’s also tough to win a baseball game when you don’t score any runs, no matter how good your pitching performs. Salem could not back up a pitching staff that allowed just two hits on Tuesday, as the Nationals took until the sixth to get on the board but held the RidgeYaks off all night. Not only were the RidgeYaks held off the board, they were also held off the basepaths; just two members of the lineup reached base at all, and the team did not get a ball four the entire night.

Have a productive Wednesday.

With the MLB Draft only about two months away I thought it would be good to examine the history of the players selected with the picks the Atlanta Braves have in the 2026 MLB Draft. With the Braves picking ninth overall for their first selection, I decided to start by looking at the history of the ninth pick in the draft in the modern era – or since 1987.

Every player and the team selecting them are being listed, as well as their bWAR. At the end I will run down the hit to bust rate, and what the median WAR produced is – excluding players drafted after 2020.

Note that with the WAR, a N/A indicates that the player never made it to the big leagues, while a player listed at 0.0 is for players that did appear in a big league game and just had a neutral WAR.

Picks

1987.Royals-Kevin Appier, RHP, 54.5 WAR

1988.Cubs-Ty Griffin, 2B, N/A

1989.Angels-Kyle Abbott, LHP, -1.4

1990.Dodgers-Ron Walden, LHP, N/A

1991.Orioles-Mark Smith, OF, -0.1

1992.Mets-Preston Wilson, SS, 6.4

1993.Tigers-Matt Brunson, SS, N/A

1994.Reds-CJ Nitkowski, LHP, -1.0

1995.Brewers-Geoff Jenkins, OF, 21.9

1996.Marlins-Mark Kotsay, OF, 21.4

1997.Twins-Michael Cuddyer, SS, 17.9

1998.Padres-Sean Burroughs, 3B, 5.5

1999.A’s-Barry Zito, LHP, 31.9

2000.Padres-Mark Phillips, LHP, N/A

2001.Royals-Colt Griffin, RHP, N/A

2002.Rockies-Jeff Francis, LHP, 9.6

2003.Rangers-John Danks, LHP, 20.2

2004.Rockies-Chris Nelson, SS, -2.6

2005.Mets-Mike Pelfrey, RHP, 5.7

2006.Orioles-Billy Rowell, 3B, N/A

2007.Diamondbacks-Jarrod Parker, RHP, 6.5

2008.Nationals-Aaron Crow, RHP, Did Not Sign

2009.Tigers-Jacob Turner, RHP, -2.6

2010.Padres-Karsten Whitson, RHP, Did Not Sign

2011.Cubs-Javier Baez, SS, 27.1

2012.Marlins-Andrew Heaney, LHP, 7.4

2013.Pirates-Austin Meadows, OF, 6.4

2014.Blue Jays-Jeff Hoffman, RHP, 3.8

2015.Cubs-Ian Happ, OF, 24.3

2016.Tigers-Matt Manning, RHP, 1.9

2017.Brewers-Keston Hiura, 2B, 0.9

2018.A’s-Kyler Murray, OF, Quit for football

2019.Braves-Shea Langeliers, C, 9.7

2020.Rockies-Zac Veen, OF, -0.3

2021.Angels-Sam Bachman, RHP, 0.7

2022.Royals-Gavin Cross, OF, N/A

2023.Rockies-Chase Dollander, RHP, 0.9

2024.Pirares-Konnor Griffin, SS, 0.8

2025.Reds-Steele Hall, SS, N/A

Breakdown

Total Players Drafted and Signed 1987-2019: 30 (excluding Kyler Murray who quit before playing a single minor league game)

Total WAR: 279.1

Average WAR: 9.3

Five Best Players: Kevin Appier (1X All Star, ERA Title), Barry Zito (Cy Young, 3X All Star), Javier Baez (3X All Star), Ian Happ (1X All Star, 4X Gold Glove), Geoff Jenkins (1X All Star)

Total 20+ WAR: 7

Total 10+ WAR: 8 (Though Shea Langeliers could make it 9 any day)

Total Who Failed to Reach MLB: 6 (Excluding Karsten Whitson and Kyler Murray as they never played for the organizations who drafted them)

Thoughts

The ninth pick in the MLB Draft has not been a historically strong spot, despite being a high pick. If you look at the top players drafted within the nearly 40 years of the modern draft format, Ian Happ makes the list of the five best players taken – and nothing against Happ, but he is more of a solid starter than an impact guy.

However things could change in the next few years based on the results of the past few drafts. 2024 pick Konnor Griffin could become one of the best players in the game pretty quickly. Shea Langeliers just recently established himself as one of the top hitting catchers in the league, and Happ is still quite productive in his age-31 season.

History isn’t on the Braves side with the ninth pick to find an impact player, but as the recent Griffin pick has shown – any pick could help to change that narrative. Even if the Braves don’t land a true impact player, 16 of the 30 players picked pre-2020 had solid big league careers – so they have better than even money odds at finding a player like that. In the crapshoot that is the MLB Draft, knowing that’s a floor is still something.

Win 10, lose three, win 10, lose three. Win 10 again? Unlikely. But one of the more curious 26 game stretches we’ve ever seen has just concluded. What will be next? We can’t know. But the schedule doesn’t ease up. This Braves team is no joke. Coming off of a down season, experts were divided as to if they would bounce back. But bounce back they have. Having won a series in Los Angeles from the Dodgers over the weekend and now beating the Cubs, this team is showing that their hot start is no fluke.

That isn’t to say the Cubs are just screwed for the next two days. But, there will be no easy wins in this series. The White Sox after that are a less elite team, but a team that has at least reached pesky or annoying this year. And a team that takes a little extra joy any time they can stick it to the Cubs. And they aren’t the only team that feels like that. The Brewers teams that the Cubs play after the White Sox can also be described that same way. At this point, rumors of their demise seem to have been premature. Color me 100 percent not surprised by that one.

I’ve been trying to think of a rational way to talk about the start that the Cubs have had. We have a blind spot at baseball fans. I thought of an example. On May 1, Ildemaro Vargas had four hits in four at bats against the Cub. At the end of the day, he had a .404/.429/.702 line. With 100 percent certainty, all of us looked at that and said this is totally unsustainable. Even if Vargas had maybe made some tweaks during this, his age 34 season, he just wasn’t going to go from a .671 OPS to a 1.131 OPS.

But what if Shohei Ohtani had that exact same start? He’s a four-time MVP (and one time runner up). Over the last three seasons, he has an OPS of 1.037. In this, his age 31 season, we’d think it would be unlikely for him to take another step forward. But we wouldn’t dismiss it would we?

The analogy breaks a little. I don’t think the Cubs are either Vargas or Ohtani in this story. They fall somewhere in between. But, this is where the blind spot is for sports fans. When an ordinary player goes ballistic, we recognize it as a hot streak. But when a superstar goes ballistic, we at least pause and and wonder if they unlocked some more ability. So what does this insane streak of games for the Cubs portend for the future? This is a team that went ballistic, right? Not a team that unlocked some more potential?

I don’t necessarily think that the streaks mean nothing. Let’s say I thought that the team was going to win 90 games before the season started. I don’t necessarily think the team will go 63-57 (.525) the rest of the way to finish at 90 wins. My impression is that the team should likely play at a 90-win pace for the remainder of the season. That would get them to 93 or 94 wins. I’d probably then make that the center of my prediction range for this team. So maybe call that 91 to 96 wins. And then I’d be likely to believe they were most likely to finish in the top of that range. 94-96 wins.

That is my untested hypothesis. Call it a 95-win team. What about you? On a night where they lost their third straight, on a night when the offense was missing in action for a third straight day, can you find your way to the kind of optimism that leads to a 95-win season? Even with the three straight losses, this team is on a 104 win pace. So my projection has them going 68-52 (.566) the rest of the way. Weigh in with your thoughts of how the rest of this goes.

Not a lot to say specifically about this game. The offense did little with starter Grant Holmes and basically nothing with the bullpen. Colin Rea couldn’t hold the Braves offense down long enough. Not a lot more to say.

Three Positives:

• Good to see Alex Bregman get into one. His homer was the only Cub hit, run and run batted in.
• Michael Busch drew a pair of walks in four plate appearances.
• Jacob Webb had a scoreless inning. He struck out one.

Game 42, May 12: Braves 5, Cubs 2 (27-15)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Alex Bregman (.084). 1-4, HR, RBI, R
• Hero: Michael Busch (.071). 0-2, 2 BB
• Sidekick: Jacob Webb (.013). IP, 3 BF, K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.327). 4.1 IP, 20 BF, 7 H, BB, 5 ER, K (L 4-2)
• Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.092). 0-3
• Kid: Michael Conforto (-.075). 0-3

WPA Play of the Game: With a runner on first and one out in the fifth inning, the game was tied when Mike Yastrzemski homered. (.230)

*Cubs Play of the Game: Alex Bregman homered with one out in the fourth inning, tying the game. (.126)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 41 Winner: Jameson Taillon (99 of 131 votes)

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +13
• Michael Conforto +12
• Shōta Imanaga +10
• Dansby Swanson -8
• Matt Shaw -9
• Seiya Suzuki -15

Current Win Pace: 104.14 wins

Up Next: Game two of the three-game series Wednesday night in Atlanta. Shōta Imanaga (4-2, 2.28, 47.1 IP) makes his ninth start of the year for the Cubs. He’s won his last two starts, including allowing one run over six innings to the Reds in his last start. He struck out 10 in that one. He has been better at home (1.74 vs 3.31), but his splits are pretty good everywhere. Pitching at night, he’s 2-0 with a 1.38, though it’s only 13 innings of work.

22-year-old rookie JR Ritchie (1-0, 3.63, 17.1) makes his fourth career start and appearance for the Braves. He was a compensation pick for the Braves at 35th overall in the 2022 draft. Last time out, he allowed three runs over five innings to the Mariners in Seattle. He walked six in that game while striking out two. The offense needs to get going in this one.

Get back in the win column.

Go Cubs!

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The Seattle Mariners won the first two games of the series, outscoring the Houston Astros 13-3 in aggregate.

My Mariners vs. Astros predictions see the road team picking up its third consecutive win tonight.

Let's take a closer look at my MLB picks for May 13.

Who will win Mariners vs Astros today: Seattle Mariners (-125)

The Houston Astros are struggling mightily to score runs without several key bats in their lineup. That's even more problematic with Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound.

He has allowed at least three earned runs in six of seven starts this season, and lasted more than five innings just once over his last six.

Excluding Bottom-10 teams in batting average vs. right-handed pitching, McCullers Jr. has allowed three or more runs in all five games, and an average of 4.8.

The Seattle Mariners are well-positioned to score, and they shouldn't need many runs to win against this Houston offense.

COVERS INTEL:Lance McCullers Jr. ranks in the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.

Mariners vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 9 (+100)

The Astros have scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last nine games. Worse yet, they have plated just four runs over the last four. Four!

It's not going to get any easier for them against Bryce Miller, who performed well in his rehab starts, and a Mariners bullpen that sits fourth in ERA and eighth in xFIP this season.

The Astros are unlikely to score more than two or three runs, which means the Mariners would have to put forth a ceiling performance to push this game Over the number.

Mariners vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Mariners -125 | Astros +105
• Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+125) | Astros +1.5 (-145)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-115) | Under 9.0 (-105)

Mariners vs Astros trend

The Seattle Mariners have hit the game total Under in 13 of the last 21 away games (+5.5 units, 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.

How to watch Mariners vs Astros and game info

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