
This week’s series at Citi Field not only offers the Orioles their last undoubtedly winnable series of the season, but also a chance to look into their potential future.
The Mets and O’s are easily two of 2026’s most disappointing teams. New York came into this season with the second-highest payroll in all of baseball and were the odds-on favorites to win the NL East. The Orioles’ preseason expectations were not quite as lofty. However, a summer spending spree that saw them bring in former Mets star Pete Alonso had many in Birdland dreaming of a return to the postseason.
Instead, with the Orioles’ win in Queens last night, the Mets have officially been eliminated from postseason contention—their fourth time missing the postseason in the six seasons since super billionaire Steve Cohen bought the team. The win represents only a brief stay of execution for the Orioles, who had only a 1.3% chance to make the playoffs heading into last night’s game.
Once it becomes official that the Orioles won’t be returning to the postseason this year, the front office will face some tough questions about how best to position Baltimore for 2027 and beyond. The first will be whether Mike Elias is still the best man to lead this front office. However, all the other questions (assuming baseball is played at some point in 2027) will be about how to reshape their roster to cover up the glaring deficiencies that ultimately sunk this talented but flawed team.
This year’s Mets offer a great example of how not to approach the offseason immediately following a disappointing season. This past offseason, as they are in seemingly every offseason since Cohen arrived, the Mets were busy. New York started their attempt at reshaping by trading outfielder Brandon Nimmo to Texas for infielder Marcus Semien.
After Alonso signed with Baltimore, the Mets went on a spending spree with all the money they weren’t paying their franchise leader in home runs. They gave $20M/yr to Jorge Polanco to replace Alonso at 1B and committed a combined $28M/yr to Devin Williams and Luke Weaver as bullpen reinforcements. They then made their big move to really try to fill the hole left by Alonso, giving Bo Bichette a $42M/yr deal to lure him away from Toronto.
New York stayed active in the trade market as well, sending away their top two prospects to the Brewers for two-time All-Star Freddy Peralta. The Mets also struck a deal with the White Sox, sending infielder Luisangel Acuña and another prospect to Chicago for now-Orioles outfielder Luis Robert Jr.
Assuming the coming work stoppage is resolved sometime in the next 365 days, the Orioles will have all the chances to repeat or learn from New York’s mistakes. Letting Alonso walk (or not doing enough to make him want to stay) meant the Mets started trying to improve with a giant new hole in their roster.
The Orioles can’t make that same mistake with pending free agent Trevor Rogers. Unlike Alonso in New York, Rogers has repeatedly stated his desire to stay in Baltimore. With Rogers heading a rotation with Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz and Brandong Young, the O’s finally have a pitching staff worthy of a contender. Letting Rogers walk would be taking a step backwards before Baltimore could even think about taking a step forward. And like it did with Alonso in New York, it could force the Orioles to spend money on lesser players attempting to replace the reigning MVO.
The Mets’ spending habits in general should be a warning sign for the Orioles front office and how they look to improve this roster. Unlike last offseason, the list of pending 2027 free agents doesn’t have a lot of star power. Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Seiya Suzuki are the best bats set to be available this offseason.
All three of those players seem like square pegs for the round holes the Orioles have in their lineup. Chisholm will be coming off a down year with the Yankees and would be another infielder on a team already full of infield talent. Arozarena and Suzuki could both be the type of right-handed, power-hitting outfielder the Orioles thought they were getting with Taylor Ward.
However, both would likely command north of $25M/year as they head into their age-32 seasons. That level of investment paid off with Alonso, but Arozarena and Suzuki are both an echelon below the Polar Bear when it comes to the game’s best hitters. The lack of success Bichette and Polanco have had with the Mets (combined -0.6 bWAR this season) show that throwing money at players who don’t obviously fit the team’s needs can quickly sink a lineup.
Elias (or whoever replaces him) must continue to treat prospects like they have more value than just bargaining chips for improving the 2027 roster. Even if they re-sign Rogers, the front office may look to trade from the Orioles’ newfound minor league pitching depth to acquire a pitcher like Joe Ryan from the Twins or Logan Gilbert from the Mariners. However, trading someone like Anthony Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa or Caden Hunter for a pitcher with only one year of team control could prove short-sighted. If they entertain such a move, the Orioles may find themselves in the same position as the Mets with Peralta: forced to move him for pennies on the dollar if the team doesn’t meet expectations.
It’s clear that this roster needs to be rebalanced to address the staggeringly inconsistent offense and continue to build the strength of this rotation. However, as the Orioles’ current opponents can attest, change just for the sake of change can leave the team worse off and with even more disappointment next year.













