The Detroit Tigers visit the Texas Rangers tonight, and there are multiple potential pathways to runs early on. Jack Flaherty takes the mound for the visitors, and while he's been very impressive lately with a 1.74 FIP across his last three outings, the Rangers are hitting .274 in the first inning and have a 114 wRC+ over the last month.
Kumar Rocker, meanwhile, counters for Texas, and he's struggled immensely with a 5-9 NRFI/YRFI record this season. The righty is known for getting into trouble in the first inning, and that's bad news against a Tigers lineup batting .276 in the first inning and posting a 115 wRC+ in their last six games.
Rocker is definitely the more vulnerable arm right now, but both offenses are capable of producing out of the gates.
I'll play this pick up to -130.
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: DSN, RSN
Rays at Astros: NRFI (-131)
We have quite the matchup on the mound between the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros tonight. Drew Rasmussen has a five-game streak without allowing a run in the first inning, and he owns a 13-3 NRFI/YRFI record overall. The right-hander has a solid 3.13 xERA over his previous two appearances.
Houston has been kept off the scoresheet in the opening frame in three of their last four games, and they have a poor 78 wRC+ across the last two weeks. As for Hunter Brown, he's been dominant since returning from injury. The righty hasn't allowed a run in the first in five outings. Tampa is scoreless in the first in back-to-back games.
With two thriving arms taking the ball and a pair of offenses far from their best lately, I expect a quiet first.
I'll play this pick up to -140.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rays.TV, Space City Home Network
White Sox at Guardians: NRFI (-121)
The Cleveland Guardians send Parker Messick to the mound tonight, and he's been absolutely lights out early on. Across 17 starts, the left-hander hasn't allowed a run in the first inning once, sporting a perfect 17-0 NRFI/YRFI record. He also owns a 2.13 FIP across his last two outings.
The Chicago White Sox haven't scored in the opening frame in two straight games, and they're batting just .213 in the first.
As for Chicago starter Sean Burke, he has just an 8-4 NRFI/YRFI record. However, Burke has a 3.02 xERA over his previous two appearances and has allowed just 0.77 HR/9 over that span. More importantly, the Guardians are scoreless in the first in three in a row, and they've posted just 82 wRC+ across the last 13 games.
Messick will deal, and Burke has a real chance to come out of the opening frame unscathed due to Cleveland's offensive inconsistencies.
I'll play this pick up to -130.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Guardians.TV, CHSN
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
NRFI/YRFI picks: 24-48, -5.88 units
What is a NRFI prediction?
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) picks add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI pick is a prediction that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're predicting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI pick is the exact opposite. You're predicting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI picks add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for those looking for a quick resolution.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
TORONTO, CANADA - JULY 1 : Fireworks light up the sky during the Canada Day celebrations at Ashbridges Bay Park in Toronto, Canada on July 1, 2026. (Photo by Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images) | Anadolu via Getty Images
Hickory starter Daniel Keaney went 4.2 IP, allowing four runs, striking out three and walking two. Aneudis Mejia walked two in two shutout innings.
Marcos Torres entered the game for Paulino Santana after Santana was hit by a pitch and went 1 for 2 with a double and a stolen base. Yolfran Castillo had a hit, a walk and a pair of stolen bases. Dewar Tovar was 2 for 3 with a walk. Daniel Flames had a pair of hits.
For Round Rock, Michel Otanez struck out three and walked one in 1.1 scoreless innings. Thomas Ireland allowed two runs in 1.1 IP. Joe Ross, who re-signed to a minor league deal after clearing waivers and electing free agency, allowed a pair of runs in 1.2 IP, walking one.
Jarred Kelenic, who re-signed to a minor league deal after clearing waivers and electing free agency, drew a walk. Aaron Zavala had a double.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JULY 03: (R-L) Gavin Sheets #30, Adrian Morejon #50 and Rodolfo Durán #48 of the San Diego Padres react as Rodolfo Durán #48 visits the mound, trailing 4-3, during the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on July 03, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Diego Padres and their fans asked Michael King to take the mound and provide a performance that would allow them to have a chance to get a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers and snap their six-game losing streak. He did that, but an error by Jake Cronenworth followed by a poor pitch from Adrian Morejon turned a 3-0 lead into a 4-3 loss for the Padres at Dodger Stadium on Friday night.
King gave San Diego just what it needed, and the offense did enough to score three runs against Los Angeles starter Shohei Ohtani. King cruised through six innings and worked into the seventh when he ran into “trouble,” giving up a leadoff walk to Mookie Betts and a single to Max Muncy. King was pulled after just 75 pitches and was replaced by Morejon.
The left-handed reliever got what appeared to be a potential double play ball with a grounder from Kyle Tucker that rolled out to Cronenworth at second base. The normally dependable second baseman did not field the ball cleanly and flipped toward second base, but Muncy was able to get to the bag safely and the bases were loaded with no outs. Teoscar Hernandez wasted no time and hit the first pitch of the at-bat over the center field wall and the work that was done by King and the Padres’ offense was erased.
As a result of the home run by Hernandez, King’s line looks worse than it was. He finished with two runs allowed on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts. It was a tough ending to what was a solid start and the decision by manager Craig Stammen to pull King considering his low pitch count and his success throughout the outing will be questioned. Morejon got the ground ball he needed but Cronenworth did not make the play and that proved to be a critical error until Morejon compounded it with a hanging slider to Hernandez.
It was a deflating set of events for San Diego and that was reflected in their at-bats over the final two innings. The Padres sent three men to the plate in the eighth inning and three in the ninth and finished the game with two groundouts and four strikeouts to take a one-run loss to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and extend their current losing streak to seven games.
San Diego will send Griffin Canning and his 7.09 ERA to the mound to try to get back to .500 with a win against Yoshinobu Yamamoto today at 7:10 p.m.
Catcher Blake Hunt is staying ready in the minors should the Padres need to bring him back to the MLB roster and he showed that with a home run in a win for El Paso.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JULY 03: Junior Caminero #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays reacts with third base coach Brady Williams #4 after hitting a solo home run in the seventh inning during a game against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on July 03, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Yankees at long last broke their losing streak, ending it at seven games after putting up five runs for the first time since June 19th against the Reds. The Twins had their chances to match them, but New York’s pitching held them in check with only Fernando Cruz getting himself into some trouble walking two batters in his inning of work. After finally stopping the bleeding, the only thing that could’ve made things better would’ve been the Rays breaking their winning streak at the same time — alas, not everything lined up how they wanted on Friday.
Tampa Bay Rays (52-33) 3, Houston Astros (43-47) 1
It was a close, low-scoring affair down in Houston as the Rays opened up a series against the Astros. The AL East leaders had won eight straight games entering the contest, but they took a while to get going facing Spencer Arrighetti. The Astros’ right-hander tossed six innings and didn’t give many opportunities to , working around a leadoff single by immediately inducing a double play and then getting a one-out walk erased thanks to Yainer Diaz throwing out the runner.
The third through fifth inning saw Arrighetti mow down Tampa Bay in order, but with two outs in the sixth Nick Fortes finally got the scoring started with a solo shot clanking off the wall in left field.
Houston didn’t go down without a fight, of course. Nick Martinez was doing a similar job to Houston’s offense through five, but Yordan Alvarez got to him in the bottom of the sixth to tie the game right back up with a solo shot of his own, his 27th of 2026 (he now has a very impressive 187 wRC+). Tampa fought right back, getting a Junior Caminero home run—his 10th in 10 games—to go ahead 2-1 in the seventh inning and a Fortes RBI double in the eighth to jump ahead by two runs.
As for the Astros, after that Alvarez blast they were blanked the rest of the way, getting a single immediately afterwards only for the next 11 Houston at-bats to all end in an out. The Yankees remain four games behind the Rays in the AL East with a series looming early next week.
Other Games
Toronto Blue Jays (42-46) 2, Seattle Mariners (45-44) 0: Half of our Rivalry teams were playing up in the Pacific Northwest as Toronto made one inning count enough to carry them to victory. Luis Castillo had one of his better outings this year, tossing six innings and allowing just five hits, but four of them came in the top of the third leading to an RBI double from Andrés Giménez and an RBI single from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to give the Blue Jays a 2-0 lead. That was all the damage necessary to tag Castillo with the loss as Dylan Cease shoved on the other end, pitching seven shutout with nine strikeouts before passing the baton over to Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland to close the game out. The idle Rangers moved half a game ahead of Seattle in the light AL West.
Cleveland Guardians (47-42) 4, Chicago White Sox (45-42) 3 (10 innings): This was a battle of the bullpens as neither starter made it through a full five innings of work. Chicago’s Anthony Kay blinked first, issuing two walks to lead off the third inning that got moved over on a bunt, but Cleveland only scored one run on the opportunity as Travis Bazzana singled in the lead runner before David Fry grounded into an inning-ending double play. Gavin Williams wound up with the worse stat line, allowing two singles to lead off the fifth and nearly stranding them just to lose a 10-pitch battle with Miguel Vargas that ended in a three-run blast.
After a rain delay briefly interrupted the action, Cleveland got to work tying the game back up. The seventh inning saw them work a pair of walks but go down to two outs as well, just for Austin Hedges to find a fastball over the middle to slap to shortstop hard enough that the ball deflected off of the fielder’s glove. That scored a run and kept the inning alive, and Steven Kwan cashed in with a single to bring home another and tie the game at three. Extra innings were brutal for Chicago, as they went down in order in the top of the 10th while the Guardians got singles from Bazzana and Kahlil Watson to walk it off.
Washington Nationals star Luis Garcia is flourishing right now. He has a .750 ISO across his last six games, going deep five times during that span. Garcia had two home runs on Friday evening against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He also has a 56.5% hard hit rate over the last week.
Garcia will face Braxton Ashcraft today. He's allowed 2.25 HR/9 across his previous two outings, and the righty gave up three homers last time out to the Philadelphia Phillies. Opponents also have a 57.1% hard hit rate against him during that span.
This is a clear opportunity for Garcia to stay hot.
I'll play this pick up to +300.
Time: 11:05 a.m. ET
Where to watch: Nationals.TV, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Caminero's 55.5% hard hit rate over the last week says it all. He is truly squaring up everything right now, and 55.5% of his contact has been through the air during that span.
He'll face the dominant Hunter Brown tonight, but it's impossible to ignore Caminero's recent brilliance. No matter who is on the hill, he's dominating. Also, Brown has allowed a home run in each of his last two starts, and he's allowed a 42.9% hard hit rate in those outings as well.
I'll play this pick up to +300.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rays.TV, Space City Home Network
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+238)
San Francisco Giants star Rafael Devers heads into a favorable matchup tonight against Tomoyuki Sugano. Devers has clubbed four home runs in his last six games while posting a .600 ISO. He has a mind-boggling 62.5% hard hit rate and 25% barrel rate during that span.
Sugano has had trouble with the home run all year, and that's been no different lately. The righty has given up 2.14 HR/9 across his previous four starts while posting a 7.29 ERA. Playing at Coors Field here also heavily benefits Devers due to just how much the ball carries in Denver.
I'll play this pick up to +200.
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rockies.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 14-72, -6.56 units
Today’s HR parlay
Luis Garcia
Bet Now +7492
Junior Caminero
Rafael Devers
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
DETROIT, MI - JUNE 23: Spencer Jones #78 of the New York Yankees looks on during batting practice prior to the game between the New York Yankees and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Tuesday, June 23, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Izzy Rincon/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Yankees’ roster carousel continues. Following last night’s game, they optioned outfielder Spencer Jones to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He had been up with the team for his second stint this year, but while he played better than his initial 4-for-24 showing, he was still running a 40-percent strikeout rate. Fellow lefty hitter Trent Grisham’s activation from the IL immediately prior to the Friday contest also meant that regular time in center field was no longer going to be available, so it was best to keep the outfielder reps in Triple-A instead.
To take Jones’ spot on the roster today, the Yankees promoted righty pitcher Brendan Beck, who will take the spot start for this afternoon’s Fourth of July matinee against the Twins. With Carlos Rodón suddenly on the IL with elbow inflammation and Elmer Rodríguez unavailable after pitching on Thursday, Beck gets the call for his second career appearance.
The 2021 second-round pick out of Stanford has gone through his injuries to make it to The Show, and this will be his first big-league start — no small feat! He last pitched in the majors on May 7th against the Rangers when Ryan Weathers was ill, entering as the “bulk guy” after an opener, allowing two runs on two hits and three walks in three innings, striking out one. Beck has a 3.07 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 88 innings (16 starts) at Triple-A this year; I expect long reliever Ryan Yarbrough will also pitch today and that the Yankees will be delighted if Beck can even give them four solid innings.
The Yankees have had a quite a few roster moves over the past few days. The best way to consider it is to consider the replcements on the 26-man roster from Wednesday night’s game, their seventh loss in a row. Here’s the roster just one full game later:
OF Spencer Jones OF Trent Grisham UT Oswaldo Cabrera 3B Ryan McMahon SP Carlos Rodón SP Brendan Beck RP Yovanny Cruz RP David Bednar
Hopefully Beck and company can help the Yankees win their second straight and put the memory of that seven-game skid behind ’em.
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 03: Atlanta shortstop Jorge Mateo (2) runs to first base during the MLB game between the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves on July 3rd, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Don’t look now, but Jorge Mateo is having a career year. He is working on career highs in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. And it’s not luck driven, as his xwOBA, xwOBAcon, xBA, and xSLG are at career highs as well.
Jorge is crushing the fastball right now. A .422 xwOBA on four-seamer is pretty good. He’s cut the whiff rate on the fastball in half. He’s pulling the ball now more than ever before and hitting it harder than ever before. To be honest, that’s his main improvement from a hitting standpoint. All his numbers versus the other stuff is right around where it was in years past. But if you can pick a pitch to handle, it’s the fastball. He might see more of the other stuff, but right now he’s cruising.
It’s quite a surprise from where we started the year. Ha-Seong Kim was the presumed starter, and Jurickson Profar would get most of the starts in left field. But that’s not where we are right now. Mauricio Dubon has been needed to hold down left field with Jurickson Profar on a year-long hiatus. And I’m still not convinced Ha-Seong Kim is fully healthy.
So are the Braves all set with Jorge Mateo at shortstop? Well, unless a mid-season move for a left fielder and Ronald Acuña Jr’s return pushes Dubon out of the outfield, then Mateo is probably their best option. It’s not like Kim will be at shortstop a lot in the near future.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JUNE 30: The Baltimore Orioles mascot performs in the seventh inning against the Chicago White Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 30, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A low-scoring affair saw the RoughRiders break a 2-2 tie in the seventh with a run against Enoli Paredes and hold on to defeat a lackluster Tides lineup. No Norfolk batter had more than one hit, managing only five in total, all singles. José Barrero drove in a run on a single and scored the other on a fielder’s choice, and that was the entirety of the Tides’ run output. A heating-up Heston Kjerstad reached base twice on a single and a walk. Enrique Bradfield Jr. didn’t start but pinch-hit in the ninth and struck out.
Yaqui Rivera started and gave up two runs in three innings. A rehabbing Yaramil Hiraldo worked a scoreless frame with two strikeouts as he returns from right shoulder inflammation that has sidelined him since April 2.
In a wild game, the Baysox erased a late 3-0 deficit with a three-run seventh inning, then fell behind again in the eighth, only to rally for two in the top of the ninth to steal the win. The top of the lineup set the table nicely, as Aron Estrada, Griff O’Ferrall, and Thomas Sosa collected two hits apiece. Sosa played the hero with his two-run single in the ninth to grab the lead for good.
Former Orioles minor leaguers Justin Armbruester and Zach Peek both pitched for Binghamton in this game. Armbruester fared well, working a scoreless inning with two strikeouts, but Peek surrendered three runs to blow the lead in the seventh. That included a two-run homer by Baysox right fielder Fernando Peguero and an RBI single by O’Ferrall.
As for Chesapeake’s hurlers, starter Evan Yates went five and allowed three runs (two earned). Jeisson Cabrera gave up a run in the eighth but vultured the win, and Zane Barnhart worked a perfect ninth for the save.
High-A: Frederick Keys 8, Brooklyn Cyclones (Mets) 7
This was another roller coaster of a game, with the Keys storming out to a 6-0 lead after two innings, then coughing up seven unanswered runs to fall into a 7-6 deficit before responding with a go-ahead, two-run rally in the seventh.
Ike Irish went 0-for-3 and Wehiwa Aloy did not play, but some lesser known names did the heavy lifting for the Keys lineup. RJ Austin got the offensive party started with a leadoff homer, part of his three-hit night in which he was a triple shy of the cycle. Leandro Arias also homered, and Yasmil Bucce and Colin Tuft drove in two runs apiece.
Starter Twine Palmer gave up three runs and struck out eight in five innings, but reliever Jacob Cravey let the early lead slip away by coughing up four runs while recording just two outs. The bullpen was much better after that, with Chandler Marsh, Bradley Brehmer, and Todd Kniebbe combining for 3.1 scoreless frames to allow the Keys to come back. Brehmer struck out the side in a perfect eighth inning.
All you need to know is that the Shorebirds committed five errors and gave up 18 hits in this game. Not gonna win many games that way, and indeed they didn’t. Starter Brayan Orrantia and reliever Kailen Hamson allowed six apiece, with each giving up three earned runs, and Orrantia also committed one of the Shorebirds’ quintet of miscues. Charleston third baseman Nicandro Arias torched the Shorebirds for five hits and four RBIs.
Jaiden Lo Re had a nice night for Delmarva, collecting two doubles and scoring two of his team’s three runs. He’s batting .329 with a .904 OPS in 22 games for the Shorebirds. Leadoff man Braylon Whitaker added a home run. But it was far too little to make up for the Shorebirds’ self-inflicted wounds.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 2: An exterior view of the front of Citizens Bank Park with a statue of Mike Schmidt during a fireworks display after a game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Kansas City Royals at Citizens Bank Park on July 2, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Royals won 6-2. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Happy Independence Day, where this year, the 250th anniversary of our independence as a nation, there is a little extra celebration in our country.
Baseball is still America’s pasttime, even if football has passed it in terms of popularity. The majority of little kids still play T-ball first when they’re getting into team sports as opposed to strapping on the shoulder pads, so I’m still going to call baseball America’s pasttime. That means today, as you celebrate, you might be doing something baseball related wherever you are at.
What will you do today that is baseball related on the Fourth of July? Maybe it’s as simple as having a catch in the backyard barbeque that you’re headed out to later on today. Maybe it’s just kicking back and watching the Phillies later on tonight in Kansas City. Maybe it’s far more than that – maybe you’re going to a baseball or softball tournament somewhere for your child. Good luck with that one.
Jun 17, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Anthony Molina (61) pitches the ball against the San Francisco Giants during the eighth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images | Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
The Atlanta Braves continued to shuffle things around and kicked off Friday with a few moves in the bullpen. First, the club announced that righty Anthony Molina was recalled to Atlanta, fellow righty James Karinchak was optioned to Triple-A, and lefty Danny Young was reinstated from the injured list. Finally, righty Ian Hamilton was designated for assignment.
The #Braves today recalled RHP Anthony Molina to Atlanta after optioning RHP James Karinchak to Triple-A Gwinnett following last night’s game. The club also returned LHP Danny Young from his rehabilitation assignment and reinstated him from the injured list, and designated RHP…
The moves provide the Braves with a fresh look in the bullpen as they continue searching for consistency in the late innings. Molina returns after a strong stretch in Triple-A, while Young gives Atlanta another left-handed option following his stint on the injured list. Meanwhile, Hamilton’s DFA opens a spot on the 40-man roster as the club continues to reshape its pitching staff ahead of the second half.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - JUNE 26: Hunter Goodman #15 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates his two-run home run as he rounds the bases against the Minnesota Twins in the ninth inning at Target Field on June 26, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Rockies 9-8 in ten innings. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
When it comes to the Colorado Rockies and the Trade Deadline, expect the unexpected. The perennial cellar-dwellers have at times conducted the types of fire sales familiar to teams without a shot at the ostseason, attempting to restock their prospect pool while punting on the current group. But they’ve also had deadlines where they hedged, most infamously in 2021 when they held onto Trevor Story and Jon Gray, two valuable assets on expiring contracts who ended up leaving in free agency after the season.
Perhaps with Paul DePodesta now leading baseball operations, they will take a more normal approach. Assuming the Rockies do, in fact, sell, they have some pieces.
A trio of veteran starters — Kyle Freeland, Michael Lorenzen, and Tomoyuki Sugano — are on expiring deals. Freeland and Lorenzen have been dreadful, but given the Coors effect and a constant need for starting pitching around the league, they might have low-end value. Sugano’s been more encouraging in his first year in Colorado, pitching to a 102 OPS+, and could be a viable rotation piece for a contender.
Given their roster construction, it’s more likely the Yankees will target one of Colorado’s relievers. Longtime starter Antonio Senzatela has been a revelation in his first year pitching out of the bullpen, posting a 3.07 ERA and 160 ERA+ in 44 innings. Taking advantage of shorter outings, his fastball is up two ticks. Senzatela’s also transformed his cutter from an afterthought into his secondary pitch, to great effect (opponents are hitting .196 against it). The 31-year-old will be a free agent after this season and is a virtual lock to be moved.
Another option is Jimmy Herget, a journeyman who’s caught on in Colorado and pitched at a high level in a year and a half there. The Yankees have swung deals for two Rockies relievers (Jake Bird and Angel Chivilli) in the past year and, while neither has panned out thus far, that shouldn’t hold GM Brian Cashman back from kicking the tires on Senzatela and Herget.
On the other side of the ball, veteran utilityman Willi Castro holds value and is under contract through 2027. He’s picked things up after a slow start, slashing .292/.388/.472 in July. He could be on the Yankees’ radar, though his skill set is a bit redundant to Amed Rosario’s. Mickey Moniak, also under team control through next year, could be moved as well. After grading out as one of the worst outfield defenders in baseball last year, he’s stabilized a bit this year. But it’s his bat that plays — the lefty has a .990 OPS against right-handed pitching this year.
The biggest question mark for the Rockies is whether they’ll shop Hunter Goodman. The 26-year-old broke out last year, making the NL All-Star team while taking home a Silver Slugger at catcher. Goodman has been just as dominant offensively this year; his 27 home runs are seven ahead of the next-best catcher.
While the jury’s still out on him defensively, and his below-average framing rate flies in the face of the Yankees’ well-established philosophy at the position, their catchers have struggled so mightily at the plate that they’d have to ask after Goodman if the Rockies make him available. The bigger wrinkle is that, with three more years of club control after this season, Colorado make take their best player off the table, at the very least preferring to hold onto him until he’s closer to free agency.
As we approach the deadline with so few teams truly out of contention, those teams will garner more than their fair share of attention. Count the Rockies, on pace for their fourth straight 100-loss season, squarely in that group. If the Yankees link up with them on a trade, the most likely scenario is that they acquire one of their veteran relievers, with Hunter Goodman lurking as a higher-impact dark horse.
ANAHEIM, Calif. — Aroldis Chapman became the major leagues’ career leader in strikeouts as a reliever Friday night, toppling a record that had stood for more than half a century.
The Boston Red Sox’s 38-year-old left-hander didn’t do it with one of the triple-digit fastballs that have made him one of the most imposing pitchers of his generation and one of the most accomplished relievers in baseball history.
Instead, his high pitch to the Angels’ Denzer Guzman was clocked at a mere 98.6 mph — and Guzman still couldn’t get around in time.
“I feel very happy, very proud of what I’ve been able to accomplish,” Chapman said through an interpreter. “I just feel very satisfied right now.”
The strikeout was the 1,364th in Chapman’s 17-year career. It broke the record long held by Hoyt Wilhelm, the Hall of Famer whose 21-year career ended back in 1972, just five days shy of his 50th birthday.
Chapman paused and soaked in the moment only briefly after fanning Guzman, aware of the significance of the strikeout while also knowing he still had to get two more outs. He promptly gave up two hits, but escaped the jam with a double-play grounder to secure Boston’s 5-2 win over Los Angeles and his 383rd career save.
The Red Sox celebrated Chapman’s achievement in their Angel Stadium clubhouse, showing a video retrospective of Chapman’s career to his younger teammates — everything from his debut with Cincinnati in 2010 to his two World Series championships with the Cubs and Rangers.
“It’s cool. We’ve been waiting for that one,” Boston interim manager Chad Tracy said. “What a career he’s had. The cool thing is watching the video, and you’re seeing him at a young age throwing 102, and he’s still doing it. It’s just incredible.”
In his 889th major league appearance — all of them in relief — Chapman saved a deserved victory for Red Sox rookie Jake Bennett, who was making his seventh appearance.
“It’s incredible,” said Bennett, who tired in the eighth. “It’s incredible to even just be a part of a team that it happens on.”
Chapman hadn’t pitched since he tied the strikeout record last Sunday while blowing a save against the Yankees, with whom he spent parts of seven seasons before an acrimonious split four years ago. He has pitched for seven teams since he defected from Cuba in 2009, earning eight All-Star selections and moving up to 10th on the majors’ career saves list.
This record spanned across a half-century of baseball history and a fundamental change in the way pitchers are used.
Among the 14 pitchers in major league history who have recorded 1,000 strikeouts as a reliever, only Lindy McDaniel was a contemporary of Wilhelm, a World War II veteran and a pioneer in relief pitching. The crafty knuckleballer was among the first pitchers to be used regularly as what’s now known as a high-leverage reliever, coming into close games and tight situations regardless of whether the starter was tired or not.
Chapman has spent his entire career in those tight spots, and he has usually excelled when healthy, often with a fastball that has topped 105 mph at times during his career.
He has even been in a renaissance since joining the Red Sox before last season. After earning AL Reliever of the Year honors in 2025 with a minuscule 1.17 ERA, he has 17 saves in 19 chances this season, still taking high-leverage assignments and usually succeeding.
“I was just focused on doing the job, day in and day out over the course of the last few weeks, getting to this point where I had the opportunity to break the record,” Chapman said. “I had some highs and some lows, but I’ve just tried to stay positive throughout.”
CLEVELAND, OHIO - JUNE 29: Relief pitcher Erik Sabrowski #62 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches during the ninth inning against the Texas Rangers at Progressive Field on June 29, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Rangers defeated the Guardians 6-3. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Guardians beat the White Sox 4-3 behind 5 and 1/3rd scoreless from the Cleveland bullpen. Franco Aleman, up for Daniel Espino, was impressive as were the other usual suspects. Nice to see Erik Sabrowski look like his old self, especially.
Jakhob has your recap here. Shoutout to Travis Bazzana and Kahlil Watson for excellent at-bats against a tough lefty reliever to win the game.
The White Sox decided to whine after the game, Anthony Kay blaming the Guardians for the timing of the rain delay (which they don’t control) and Will Venable blaming the grounds crew for his fielders’ sloppy play.
Zack Meisel looks at 12 potential trade targets for the Guardians in an article today.
Nov 9, 2025; Mesa, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies infielder Charlie Condon during the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) will tell you the adjustment was not dramatic.
In Eli Whitney’s Weekly Pebble Report, the Rockies’ top prospect described his midseason surge in fairly modest terms. There were some tweaks with his “load and gather,” a growing comfort in his swing, and a better ability to stay within himself instead of trying to force damage early in counts.
Condon’s June was not subtle: The power finally arrived. The question is whether the surge is being supported by something more than a hot stretch.
Across 22 games in June, Condon slugged .778 with nine home runs and 30 RBI. That surge pushed his full-season line to .296/.419/.612 with a 1.033 OPS, 20 home runs and a 145 wRC+. For a player selected third overall in 2024 largely because of his offensive ceiling, a surge of that magnitude carries weight. This is the production the Rockies were waiting to see.
The production is the headline. The process underneath it is what makes the breakout worth taking seriously.
The approach was already there
Condon’s underlying data does not simply show a hitter who got hot. It shows a hitter whose selectivity, damage and swing-and-miss are beginning to interact in a more encouraging way. Even so, there is still risk in his profile, and it does not make his eventual transition to Denver automatic. It does, however, give real analytical context to what Condon told Eli: He is trusting the swing more, getting deeper into counts with more confidence, and doing a better job punishing mistakes.
The plate discipline is the easiest place to start. Condon has walked at a 14.6% clip while chasing only 18.0% of pitches outside the zone. That is the foundation of the profile. He is not expanding the zone to get to his power, and for a hitter with Condon’s raw strength, that matters.
The key is that this was not a brand-new approach. Condon was already patient earlier in the season. What changed is that the patience has started producing damage.
Making patience more dangerous
The rolling data shows the shape of the adjustment: Condon’s expected slugging and hard-hit rate have climbed while his swing rate has drifted down and his whiff rate has backed off its rougher midseason peak. He is not chasing power by simply swinging more. He is doing more damage while becoming more selective.
Condon’s quote about chase is useful because discipline is not just refusal. It is confidence. His best stretch has not come from abandoning patience. It has come from making patience more dangerous.
The damage matters because the approach still gives pitchers a path. Condon’s overall swing rate sits at 39.7%. His zone-swing rate is 62.8%. His zone-contact rate is 79.9%, and his whiff rate is 28.4%. If the damage is not there, pitchers have every reason to attack him in the zone, steal early-count strikes and trust the swing-and-miss to show up before he hurts them.
That is what makes the recent stretch important. Condon controls the zone well, but he also gives pitchers a reason to believe they can enter it. The more he punishes mistakes when they do, the harder it becomes for that plan to survive.
Patience comes with risk. A low chase rate is a strength, but MLB pitchers do not have to live outside the zone if a hitter is willing to take strikes. Against Condon, the plan may be less about getting him to chase immediately and more about stealing early-count strikes, getting ahead and using spin to finish the at-bat.
The secondary-pitch question is more complicated
Condon is already punishing fastballs. Against four-seamers, he has produced a .417 xwOBA, .421 xSLG, +11.1 Run Value (RV) and a 61.1% hard-hit rate. That matters because MLB pitchers are unlikely to build their plan around simply challenging him with fastballs in the zone. The next test is how well they can use breaking balls and offspeed pitches to keep him from getting to that damage.
The slider results show why the question is not as simple as “Can he hit spin?” Condon has a .628 xSLG and +7.3 RV against sliders, so the damage is real. But the 38.9% whiff rate means pitchers still have a reason to keep testing him there.
The margins are thinner elsewhere. Against sweepers and changeups, Condon has still produced positive run value, but the expected slugging is more modest — .370 xSLG against sweepers and .386 xSLG against changeups — while the whiff rates sit above 37% on both pitch types.
Fastballs are getting punished. Sliders are dangerous both ways. Sweepers and changeups look more like the pressure points MLB pitchers may try to exploit. Run value says the overall results have worked in Triple-A. Expected slugging and whiff rate show where those results could be tested by better execution.
Pitch Type
Usage
RV
xwOBA
xSLG
xBA
Whiff %
Hard Hit %
Swing %
4-Seam
28.20 %
11.1
.417
.421
.271
22.45 %
61.11 %
38.3 %
Slider
23.80 %
7.3
.428
.628
.261
38.93 %
41.46 %
40.4 %
Sinker
12.80 %
-0.3
.382
.484
.310
12.16 %
48.72 %
42.5 %
Change
11.10 %
4.1
.333
.386
.245
37.14 %
29.17 %
46.4 %
Cutter
7.60 %
4.4
.301
.301
.195
15.79 %
52.38 %
54.8 %
Sweeper
7.30 %
1.9
.287
.370
.187
39.29 %
50 %
28 %
Curve
5.40 %
-1.1
.168
.166
.124
33.33 %
0 %
24.3 %
Splitter
2.10 %
-0.5
.169
.087
.058
50 %
50 %
35.7 %
This is where the pitch-type table reaches its limit. It can show the pressure points, but it cannot show the progression of the at-bat. For Condon, that progression is the point: the same patient foundation that was producing walks and playable contact in April is now creating chances to do damage.
The progress shows up pitch by pitch
In April against Sacramento, Condon was already showing the approach. He was working counts, taking walks and forcing pitchers to execute, but the contact was not consistently changing the way pitchers had to attack him. Against Carson Whisenhunt, he walked in a six-pitch plate appearance, later doubled on an 83.3 mph changeup in a seven-pitch at-bat, and added a 101.0 mph sacrifice fly in a five-pitch plate appearance. The approach was competitive, but the double was a 94.6 mph ground ball at a 5-degree launch angle — useful contact, not the kind of impact that forces pitchers to rethink the plan.
That is the important baseline. Condon was not trying to become patient. He already was patient. The question was whether that approach would start producing enough damage.
The July 1 matchup against Marco Gonzales showed the later version.
Condon’s first at-bat against Gonzales was a six-pitch triple. Gonzales started him with a cutter for a called strike, then mixed a cutter, another cutter, a four-seam fastball and a changeup. Condon stayed in the at-bat, ran the count full and drove an 86.8 mph cutter for a 390-foot triple at 95.2 mph off the bat.
Then came the ambush. In the third inning, Gonzales opened the next plate appearance with an 80.9 mph changeup, and Condon hit it 103.5 mph at a 31-degree launch angle for a 397-foot home run. That at-bat lasted one pitch.
His third look at Gonzales showed the fuller version of the progress. In a six-pitch plate appearance, Gonzales changed speeds and shapes: cutter, fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup, fastball. Condon fouled off the first cutter, took a fastball off the plate, took a curveball below the zone, fouled off another cutter, then took a changeup to run the count full.
The sixth pitch was a 90.1 mph four-seam fastball. Condon hit it 101.8 mph at a 26-degree launch angle for a 385-foot home run.
That is the difference. The April version was taking pitches and working counts. The July version is doing that while turning the eventual mistake into damage.
The July 2 double against Ryan Lobus added a breaking-ball example without needing as much space. In a six-pitch plate appearance, Condon took two sweepers for balls, watched two more sweepers land for called strikes, took a fastball to run the count full, then drove an 81.2 mph sweeper 108.9 mph for a double. It was a deep count, it was spin, and it was loud contact.
Condon can miss breaking balls and off-speed, but he can also hurt them. The next test is whether more advanced pitchers can separate his selectivity from his damage often enough to keep him from changing the game.
The question has changed
At this point, the more interesting question is whether Triple-A can keep sharpening the test. Condon is walking, not chasing, doing damage, adjusting deeper in counts and forcing pitchers to pay when they come into the zone. The remaining question is whether the balance of patience and impact holds against big-league spin, better sequencing and pitchers with better command of how to attack him.
That does not make the call-up decision simple, and it does not guarantee an easy first month in Denver. But Condon has moved beyond simple prospect hype. The power everyone was waiting on has arrived, and it is showing up without him abandoning the strike-zone control that made the profile so interesting in the first place.
Condon looks ready for the next test, and increasingly, that test looks like one that may have to come at the big-league level.
Whether that happens next week, next month or later in the season is up to the Rockies.
The Albuquerque Isotopes (44-41) used early offense, late insurance, and a strong start from Keegan Thompson to handle the Round Rock Express (37-48) in an 8-2 win on Friday night.
Brenton Doyle got Albuquerque moving with a one-out solo homer to left-center field in the first inning. Doyle’s first AAA home run of the year traveled 356 feet with a 96.9 mph exit velocity. He finished 2-for-5 with the homer, his second double, and two RBI.
The Isotopes added on in the second inning with three straight two-out RBI doubles. Adael Amador drove in Drew Avans with his 10th double of the season, Doyle followed with a double to score Amador, and Sterlin Thompson added his seventh double to bring in Doyle. Amador went 2-for-4 with a walk, an RBI, and a run scored, pushing his OPS to .768.
Albuquerque put the game away late. Jordan Beck opened the eighth with his second home run of the season, sending an outer-edge changeup to left-center for a 355-foot homer. Beck later added an RBI single in the ninth and finished 2-for-5 with two RBI, bringing his season OPS to .879. Bryant Betancourt added an RBI single in the eighth and finished 2-for-5 with his first AAA stolen base.
Keegan Thompson worked five scoreless innings, allowing three hits and three walks with five strikeouts. He improved to 2-4 and lowered his ERA to 4.04. His biggest outs came with runners on, including strikeouts to end both the third and fourth innings. Domingo Acevedo covered the final four innings, allowing two unearned runs on two hits with three strikeouts to earn his first save.
The Isotopes finished with 15 hits, went 6-for-13 with runners in scoring position, and produced five two-out RBI. Round Rock managed five hits and went 1-for-6 with runners in scoring position.
The Somerset Patriots (42-37) held off a late push from the Hartford Yard Goats (42-36) in a 5-3 win on Friday night.
Hartford had the baserunners to make this one look different, but missed chances shaped the loss. The Yard Goats finished with eight hits, drew eight walks, and went just 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position while leaving 11 on base.
Jack O’Dowd stayed hot in his first week at Double-A. O’Dowd started at catcher and went 2-for-4 with a walk, his second double, and an RBI. Through his first four Double-A games, he is hitting .375/.444/.875 with a 1.319 OPS.
Roc Riggio also reached three times, going 2-for-4 with a walk and his 19th double of the season. Riggio now has an .837 OPS. Dyan Jorge added an RBI single and a walk, while Andy Perez drove in a run during Hartford’s ninth-inning push.
The pitching split was sharp. Stu Flesland III opened with two scoreless innings, and Michael Prosecky followed with a clean third, but Fisher Jameson allowed all of Somerset’s damage after taking over following a rain delay. Jameson gave up five runs on five hits, three walks, and two home runs over four innings, raising his ERA to 9.26.
Hartford got one run back in the fifth, then made Somerset work in the ninth. Mike Antico singled, Jorge walked, and Perez singled home Antico to cut the deficit to 5-2. O’Dowd then brought in Jorge on a force-out, but Aidan Longwell lined out to end the game with the tying run still at the plate.
The Spokane Indians (38-41) scored early and got enough pitching to beat the Hillsboro Hops (38-41) in a 4-2 win on Friday night.
Spokane built its lead in the first two innings. Tommy Hopfe opened the game with a single, Roynier Hernandez walked, and Ethan Hedges drove in Hopfe with a single to left. Jacob Humphrey followed with his 12th double of the season, bringing in Hernandez and Hedges to give the Indians a 3-0 lead.
Hopfe helped set the table again in the second with his 15th double of the season, and Hedges brought him home with another RBI single. Hopfe finished 2-for-5 with two runs scored and carries an .846 OPS on the season. Hernandez reached four times, going 1-for-2 with three walks and a run scored, raising his season OPS to .850.
Hedges and Humphrey drove the offense. Hedges went 2-for-5 with two RBI, giving him 42 on the season, while Humphrey went 1-for-3 with a walk, his 12th double, and two RBI to push his season total to 28. Spokane finished 3-for-8 with runners in scoring position.
Bryson Hammer gave the Indians a strong start, allowing one run on two hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out seven, improved to 4-6, and now owns a 5.26 ERA. Hunter Mann followed with three innings of one-run ball, allowing three hits and striking out one. Nathan Blasick handled the ninth with two strikeouts to earn his sixth save and lower his ERA to 3.20.
The Fresno Grizzlies (43-36) kept answering and eventually walked off the Ontario Tower Buzzers (41-38) in a 10-9 win on Friday night.
Fresno trailed 2-0 after the top of the first, but Roldy Brito and Wilder Dalis helped erase it right away. Brito singled in the bottom half, and Dalis drove him in with his 11th double of the season. Jesus Freitez followed with an RBI single to tie the game at 2-2.
Brito was in the middle of everything for Fresno. He went 4-for-4 with a walk, a run scored, and two doubles, pushing his season line to a .322 average and .872 OPS. Dalis also had a big night, going 2-for-5 with his 11th double, his sixth home run, two RBI, and two runs scored. He now has an .832 OPS.
The Grizzlies kept climbing back after Ontario built leads of 6-3, 8-5, and 9-6. Cameron Nelson hit his fourth home run of the season in the fourth, a two-run shot that cut the deficit to 6-5. Dalis homered in the fifth, and Jeremy Ciriaco added his second home run in the sixth to make it 9-7.
Fresno tied it in the seventh without needing a big swing. Freitez singled, Ashly Andujar was hit by a pitch, Ciriaco walked, and Yeiker Reyes brought in Freitez with a sacrifice fly.
The ninth inning was messy, but Fresno took advantage. Reyes singled, Nelson walked, and Brito walked to load the bases with two outs. Luis Mendez was then hit by a pitch, forcing in Reyes for the walk-off run.
Fresno rarely had a clean inning on the mound, but Dylan Crooks struck out one in a perfect ninth inning to earn the win.
AP looks at Hunter Goodman’s season through both sides of the ABS system. Goodman’s power has already made him one of the Rockies’ clearest All-Star cases, but his value has extended behind the plate, too, where his strike-zone feel has translated into one of the better challenge records among catchers. It is another reminder that with Goodman it is not just about the home runs — it is also about how much more complete his profile has become.
With the draft just a week away, MLB.com’s latest mock has the Rockies going back to the college position-player pool at No. 10, targeting an outfielder whose profile is built more around the hit tool and plate discipline than pure power. There is still some pitching intrigue here, though, with at least one college arm mentioned as a possible fit if Colorado decides to chase upside on the mound instead.
Kevin Henry looks at why TJ Rumfield’s rookie season still has not fully broken through nationally despite the production. Rumfield has now won back-to-back NL Rookie of the Month honors, and the underlying case is strong: he leads qualified NL rookies in several major offensive categories, including average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, and hits. The question is whether voters will look past the Rockies’ record, the Coors Field factor, and the lower defensive spotlight that comes with playing first base.
We’re a mere two weeks away from the 2026 MLB First Year Player Draft, and it’s time for my second annual “listen to the prospects guy shout aimlessly about incoming prospects”. Last season, I highlighted three Tennessee Vols, among others, for the Guardians’ first round pick: Gavin Kilen (SF R1:13), Marcus Phillips (BOS CB-A:33), and Dean Curley. Curley ultimately fell a fair amount in the draft, largely driven by defensive concerns and passivity, but Cleveland ended up getting him anyways at pick 64. Seems like a win? Anyways, Cleveland ultimately went astronomical upside, equally devastating downside at pick 27, selecting Texas A&M outfielder, Jace LaViolette, and with LaViolette, Cleveland’s entire concept of player profile tendency went by the wayside.
Today, I’ll be bringing a handful of pitchers to the table. Next week, I’ll bring a few bats to the plate. I’ll start with names I’ve heard linked to the Guardians at 19, and then I’ll roll through some names further on down the draft that I like for Cleveland.
Starting with R1:19: I strongly think that, unless an AJ Gracia-level bat falls to 19, that Cleveland will be cashing in on a player from a group of the strong college pitching likely to be available to them in this range and bolstering a rather thin, top-heavy pitching system.
We’ll start with A Vol again, Tegan Kuhns.
ROUND ONE: 19th Pick
TEGAN KUHNS | RHP | TENNESSEE | 21
SYNOPSIS: Kuhns makes so much sense for the Guardians for four reasons: good spin, great fastball shape, good command, quality extension. Kuhns has three offerings that will have teams salivating over getting him in their pitching labs, and his long-limbed, athletic movements on the mound signal a pitcher built for consistency.
Kuhns operates with a traditional three-quarters slot, but his release height sits ~65.5 inches, and with that low release height and above average extension, he generates very good metrics for his fastball. Kuhns’s 4-seam sits 93-96, flashing 98 on occasion, and he eats the zone alive with it. He runs an iVB that ranges consistently between 18-20 inches, and that’s with ~11 inches of arm-side run at that release height. Of course, this will naturally deflate a bit with the pro ball, but his vertical approach angle at the top of the zone is as flat as it gets in this draft, and I have no doubts that the fastball will continue to play at a high level as he gets into a minor league system given how terrific his command is of the offering. When he was able to consistently live along the top half of the zone with his fastball, he proved to be borderline unhittable at times.
Kuhns does a great job mirroring his arm action with his changeup, and he combined that with an 8-10 mph difference from his fastball and good fading action. His changeup became a late-count out pitch against lefties, running a whiff rate north of 35% and in-zone whiff rate around 31%. He has a good feel for it, and if he got into Cleveland’s system, this is the pitch most likely to blossom into another plus offering alongside his fastball.
Kuhns drops an upper 70s curveball with around 2600 RPMs to primarily steal strikes, but he got good returns on it, generating a whiff rate of 37.7% against power-4 competition, his highest whiff rate of any pitch. His slider, however, is the breaker that I’m most intrigued by. Kuhns struggled to replicate his shape with his slider consistently, seeing it get too verty and lose its depth, leading to some loud contact, but at its best, it resembles a death ball shape in the 84-85 mph range. What I want to see him do with his slider is add a tick to it while keeping its depth. A slider with sudden drop at 85-87 is so much more effective for what Kuhns wants to do, and it lets him keep it in the zone a bit more safely when needed.
IF CLEVELAND DRAFTED KUHNS, I WOULD FEEL: THRILLED
Kuhns has some acute reliever risk, but I’m fairly bullish on that not becoming reality. I like his repeatable mechanics, I think this is among the best fastballs in the draft, and Kuhns is a massive competitor. The lack of consistency he has with his slider shape and its lack of in-zone whiffs with it make me raise an eyebrow, but I trust that he fleshes it out and pairs with a borderline plus fastball, and I feel the changeup is a great pairing with it. The later the season got, the better the slider shape appeared to be, and he went to his fastball less, showcasing a real starter’s repertoire and usage.
LIAM PETERSON | RHP | FLORIDA | 21
SYNOPSIS: Peterson is a fascinating right-handed pitching prospect in this year’s draft. A mountain of a pitcher, he stands at 6-foot-5 and close to 230 pounds with a higher arm slot, a massive fastball, and big spin capabilities.
There are some concerns here. I’m not the biggest fan of Peterson mechanically. Despite it being a more compact process, it’s far from smooth, and I believe it contributes to his biggest area of concern with consistency. It boils down to not throwing enough strikes with his fastball and throwing too many with it as well, leading to him getting behind in counts consistently early in outings or tagged much harder than he should.
Peterson has a big fastball and gets good extension, generating around 20 inches of iVB on average with a hair under 10 inches of arm-side movement, but a release height just north of 80 inches creates a fastball that does not generate friendly VAA, and the pitch generated under 20% whiff rates this season with Florida. When he stays up in the zone, he finds his most success, but he can miss high and not get any chases or stay lower in the zone at a hitter friendly angle and get touched up. He sits in the mid to upper-90s, typically 94-98 with big spin, and his entire repertoire is built around his heater.
Peterson’s best pitch is his slider. His breakers generate ~2800 RPMs on average. The slider sits 84-87 with good downward depth, and he ran a whiff rate just north of 50% on the season as a whole with the offering and goes to it against either handedness. It’s one of the better breaking pitches in the draft. Its 27% usage is necessary as it’s the only other pitch he can comfortably keep in the zone in any count outside of his 4-seam, and it was his main put-away pitch to righties. Peterson has a curve that generates big drop but works best either as a strike stealer or well below the zone.
Peterson has a changeup that gets vertical, right around 11-12 iVB, with good tumbling action. Its usage is vital for his fastball and keeps him a three, sometimes four pitch guy to lefties.
IF CLE DRAFTED PETERSON, I WOULD FEEL: NERVOUS
Peterson has big velo and a lot of traits to love, but given the names possibly available at this range, he’s the name I’m not totally sold on. I don’t love his command, and if he can’t consistently get swings and misses with his fastball, I’m typically going to push away on a college arm like this in the first round.
CADE TOWNSEND | RHP | OLE MISS | 21
SYNOPSIS: Townsend is my trust your eyes over the stat sheet pick here, largely just with his fastball. Townsend is a smooth mover on the mound, and establishing more consistent, repeatable mechanics was a clear goal moving into his final season at Ole Miss. He noticeably switched from a rested handset at his front hip through his windup in seasons prior to an overhead motion before bringing his hands back down to his chest. This gets him to his release point quicker and more consistently. Townsend gets above average extension (~6.3-6.4) with a deep arsenal of weapons at his disposal, all of which he has a capable feel for that comes from a 40-43 degree arm angle.
Townsend’s 4-seamer struggled this season, getting hit hard, but he was also able to get good in-zone whiff results with the offering. As we get through his write-up here, you’ll see it was just about the only pitch he struggled with. The shape, however, is very good. It’s more ride than run, generating 19.5 iVB to just 7.3 inches arm-side at a quality ~72 inch release height.
Townsend works a really nice cutter that he used almost as much as his fastball. He can get under the hands of lefties and get weak contact, and even with the higher usage, he still generated quality swing and miss stuff with it. His cutter sits along a good vertical plane with ~3 inches of horizontal movement and was a real weapon in both negating hard contact and creating swings and misses. From there, his high-80s changeup creates good tumbling action, generating close to 1100 RPMs fewer than the fastball. Between it, his cutter, and his 4-seamer, it makes for a strong trio pitch group against LHH.
Townsend spent time developing a sweeper this season, and it generated a little under a foot of sweeping action for the season. The returns were really good here as he ran a whiff rate of 46% with a chase rate of 36%. He showed real poise in executing the pitch down and away to RHH. Any added sweep here would be great, but even at where it sits, it’s a quality offering. He also mixes in a low-80s curveball
IF CLE DRAFTED TOWNSEND, I WOULD FEEL: CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Townsend oozes tenacity and competitive fire, almost to a fault. Between an unrelenting desire to win and a true 5-7 pitch repertoire that has shown flashes of fastball diversity, he has all a team could want in terms of a starting point to develop. His size is going to be something held against him as he stands just 6-foot-1, but I would be willing to take that chance, even at pick 19.
CAMERON FLUKEY | RHP | COASTAL CAROLINA | 21
SYNOPSIS: Flukey will be the final name we touch on here for first round arms. Flukey suffered a stress fracture in his rib back in February, and he didn’t return to the mound until late April, making just six outings after the injury, most of which were short bursts as he tried to build back up. Flukey possesses a big ceiling, thanks in part to his size and velocity capabilities. The long-limbed 6-foot-6 righty is a good mover whose fastball possesses electric stuff with a motion as lengthy as the day is long.
Flukey’s fastball sits 95-97 while being a real threat to reach triple digits. When he lives with the heater up in the zone, he’s borderline unhittable. Flukey is an extension monster, living around the 7-foot range. Finding consistency with the fastball up in the zone is priority number one with this pitch as Flukey, largely due to not having a fleshed out arsenal, had to lean on his fastball to fill out the zone rather than attack it with his strengths. Flukey averaged close to 20 iVB with the college ball, generating just shy of 8 inches of arm-side run. Along with added strength, he worked on truncating his motion a bit, and it returned some promising consistency with the fastball in comparison to the season prior. Flukey’s primary issue with the heater in ‘25 was finding its consistent shape. His extraneous movement before planting his landing foot created a lot of less than desirable shape.
Flukey’s slider is a low to mid-80’s gyro slider that hovers right around the zero axis. It generates hardly any iVB and minimal arm side run and generates a lot of swing and miss and chase. It’s a unique shape, and one that I’d like to see him find a tick or two more velo with. This sitting 85-88 with that kind of sharp drop would be a menace of a pitch. Flukey mixes in a big, loopy 12-6 curve of which the bottom just drops completely out of. It’ll sit upper 70’s.
Flukey showed a changeup in previous seasons, but he was predominantly a three-pitch pitcher coming off his injury. At the very least, we know it’s there.
IF CLE DRAFTED FLUKEY, I WOULD FEEL: ECSTATIC
These are the swings Cleveland needs to take if they fall into their laps. True draft day top-10 college talents don’t typically wind up falling to 19 all that often, and though I don’t think Flukey will (I’m eyeing 12-15 here), it’s not out of the realm of possibility. For reference, Over Slot’s most recent mock draft as of July 1 has Flukey falling all the way to 25. Between the injury and the amount of tidying up needed here, it makes sense, but the stuff is truly electric in spite of a real reliever risk.
ROUND TWO: 59th Pick
Round two is where I will choose to focus on the prep arms possibly available here (except for one). Cleveland will not have pick 29 at their disposal, so we will all be waiting from pick 19 all the way until pick 59. Cleveland has shown a history of going prep in R2, and these are some arms to highlight for this range.
KADEN WAECHTER | RHP | JESUIT H.S. (FL) | 18
Stop me when you’ve heard this before: Guardians target prep arm who’s an athletic mover with refined mechanics on the mound.
Waechter, who is set to turn 19 a couple weeks post-draft, is as advanced mechanically on the hill as any prep prospect in the class with a fastball that generates quality spin. At the 2026 Preseason Classic, Waechter sat 92-96 with the heater, and he throws both a traditional 4-seam that finds 15/8 iVB/HB splits and a sinker that runs more 9/16. Keep in mind, his early season outings were relief appearances as Jesuit wanted to preserve his arm for their season, but the velocity, good shape and control, and big, 2500+ range spin capabilities are there.
Waechter mixes in a tumbling changeup that creeps its way towards the upper 80’s. With more polish, this is a real weapon against lefties. His slider has been touted as one of the better breakers of the prep arms in this draft. It sits comfortably in the mid-80s with good spin, and its sharp bite creates a run and drop action that has had high school bats completely baffled. Waechter has also flashed a seldom used low-80’s curveball.
IF CLE DRAFTED WAECTHER, I WOULD FEEL: ON CLOUD NINE
Waechter has mid-rotation upside, if not higher, with a projectable frame and great spin capabilities to develop into a real deal prospect. There’s already four capable pitches here with potential for more, and if Cleveland saved some money in R1 and threw that money at Waechter that deep into R2, they will have just picked one of the biggest steals in the draft.
GAVIN GIESE | RHP | DANA HILLS H.S. (CA) | 18
Giese has seen a late rise up the ranks boost his draft stock into the stratosphere. Committed to go pitch at San Diego, Giese now has real top three rounds helium, ranging from back of the comp picks all the way to 70.
Giese is a 6-foot-4 right-handed pitcher who has grown two inches and put on 30 pounds, filling out a prototypical starter’s frame, and finding fastball velo with it. Giese’s mechanics are solid, and he moves down the mound incredibly well. Many reports indicate well above average extension here.
Giese comfortably sits 90-92 now, and there’s more velo to be found here as he generates capable spin and already saw a major spike in velo from his junior year. Giese has a slider and curve that also generate good spin and will need continual refining to find their right shapes. He also throws a quality kick-change, easily his best offering right now that separates well from his fastball at his vertical release point and falls off a cliff.
IF CLE DRAFTED GIESE, I WOULD FEEL: OPTIMISTIC
Late risers can be scary given how much unknown it can entail, but Giese’s rise feels rooted in very trustworthy traits.
WES MENDES | LHP | FLORIDA STATE | 21
One final collegiate starter, and finally, a lefty, and a fun one at that! Mendes is a former two-way player out of the same Jesuit High School as Kaden Waechter. Mendes went the round-about way to get to Florida State, stopping at Ole Miss first.
Mendes is among the more underrated arms with 2nd round likelihood that you’ll find. He’s incredibly refined despite only now fully shifting towards pitching as his focus with a plus changeup and burgeoning slider.
Mendes sits 91-93 with the heater, reaching back for 95 at times. He gets quality ride and ~10 inches arm-side run from a ~71 inch release height. Despite Mendes having a higher three-quarters slot around 55 degrees, his above average extension and lower release height help create optimal shape with a -4.1 VAA along the top third of the zone.
Mendes has good command across his arsenal, primarily with his fastball, changeup, and slider. Mendes was a menace in particular to RHH because of the fastball+changeup combo. His circle-change generates huge horizontal action as it dives down and away. The changeup ran a whiff rate north of 50% with an in-zone whiff rate north of 40%. It was among the very best cambios in the nation.
IF CLE DRAFTED MENDES, I WOULD FEEL: THRILLED
Mendes is a big draft crush for me. His arsenal compliments itself much like a familiar FSU lefty’s arsenal did heading into the 2022 Draft. I see real sudden and quick growth here, and I think there’s comfortable back-end starter ceiling here, pushing fringe middle-rotation.
And that’s it! 3,000 words later, we have covered seven names either linked to the Guardians or are favorites of mine personally. Cleveland has a lot of work to do in regards to replenishing its arms within the system, and this is a very good draft to do exactly that.
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Luis Garcia
Rafael Devers
