Randy Vasquez has seen a steady increase of work since he started his career with the New York Yankees in 2023. He appeared in 11 games as a rookie and made five starts for the Yankees and finished the season with a record of 2-2. Vasquez closed the season with a 2.87 ERA and allowed 18 walks to 33 strikeouts. The future appeared bright for the right-hander.
The numbers produced by Vasquez caught the eye of San Diego Padres President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller and he was acquired via the Juan Soto trade along with pitchers Michael King, Jhony Brito and Drew Thorpe and catcher Kyle Higashioka.
Vasquez was given an opportunity to start for the Padres in 2024 and had mixed results. He appeared and started in 20 games and finished with a 4-7 record. His innings pitched increased from 37.2 to 98.0 which also led to an increased ERA of 4.87. Vasquez gave up 56 runs with 53 of those being earned and recorded 62 strikeouts and allowed 29 walks.
The thought was that Vasquez would take another step forward in 2025, and he did in terms of overall numbers, but the win/loss record remained relatively the same as he finished 6-7. Vasquez appeared in 28 games and made 26 starts. He threw 133.2 innings and worked to a respectable 3.84 ERA. However, his runs and earned runs shot up and finished at 127 and 122 respectively. Unfortunately for the right-hander, and the Padres, he finished with 78 strikeouts and 52 walks.
Vasquez currently stands as the No. 4 starter in the Padres’ rotation. If he remains in that position as San Diego enters the season, he will be asked to take on a greater role and will have to find greater success. Wins and losses are not solely on the pitcher so it’s tough to judge how well Vasquez is performing on record alone, but walks are solely on the pitcher and Vasquez has complete control over throwing strikes. His fastball velocity increased at the end of last season and there is hope that his increased velocity will increase his confidence and he will challenge more hitters.
With growing numbers in games started and innings pitched, Vasquez has been able to steadily acclimate himself to pitching through a major league season over the past three years. Reports are that Vasquez has been working throughout the offseason and is in better shape at this point in the offseason than he was at this time a year ago. Maybe that is maturity and Vasquez becoming more of a professional or maybe he understands he will be leaned on heavily in 2026 and he is trying to show Preller, manager Craig Stammen and the Padres he is up to the challenge.
Welp, this is attempt number three at writing this post. The first version was written on Thursday before the Dodgers had agreed to terms with Kyle Tucker. And the second version was written on Friday morning before Bo Bichette agree to terms with the Mets. Hopefully, I can get this version published before somebody signs Cody Bellinger or the Dodgers trade for Ketel Marte.
Phillies fans spent Friday afternoon in an absolute tizzy because Bo Bichette signed a free agent deal with the Mets.
Bo Bichette basically used #Phillies like Bobby Bonilla did back in the day as FA before signing with Mets to get what finally amounted to his famous $1M a year for 25 years every July 1st contract.
The Phillies missing out on Bichette to the Mets of all people is literally worst case scenario…
Not only that, but we’re going to run it back with the exact same team with worse pitching now that Ranger is in Boston. Just awesome. Really great offseason. Super happy about it.
When the offseason began, Bichette wasn’t really on the radar for most Phillies fans. Yes, he’s a good player, but seemed like an imperfect fit for the Phillies, and it felt much more likely that he would go elsewhere.
But then, the rumors started: The Phillies and Bichette were talking! The talks went well! The Phillies were the prohibitive favorites to sign him!
The Phillies are the overwhelming favorites to sign infielder Bo Bichette while the Yankees and Mets will now be in a bidding war for outfielder Cody Bellinger.
Bichette suddenly became a must have for Phillies fans. We were already penciling him into the lineup and figuring out where Alec Bohm could be shipped off to.
It seemed as if the Phillies had agreed to everything Bichette was asking for. And then…
The Phillies had agreed to Bo Bichette’s request for a 7-year, $200 million deal last night and believed they would sign him until the Mets swooped in with their 3-year, $126 million offer after losing out in in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes.
If they had basically agreed on everything, why wasn’t the contract signed? It’s possible that the Phillies dragged their feet. Or it’s possible that Bichette’s camp always wanted to see how the Tucker situation played out.
It didn’t play out well for the Phillies. The Dodgers decided they needed another stone for their gauntlet, and Kyle Tucker decided he’d be fine being the sixth best player on a super team. The Mets seemed to think they were going to be the one to sign Tucker, and when they lost him, they pivoted to Bichette, giving him a contract that even Mets fans are a little unsure about.
Mets agree to pay Bichette $40M+ per they lose International Pool Money + Draft Pick(s) and he's playing out of position. Simply put Bichette wasn't/isn't worth. Signing Bichette was an over reaction to losing out on Tucker.
Almost immediately after, the Phillies announce that they’re bringing back J.T. Realmuto, and let’s just say, the fan reaction has been a little different than when they re-signed him five years ago.
Most fans are unhappy that the team is basically “running it back” with mostly the same group that has fallen short the past four postseasons. The Phillies haven’t signed a big-name player in free agency since Trea Turner after 2022, so, I understand why people are unenthused about another season of the “same old” Phillies.
I do push back on this narrative that the past four years have been “failures.” Yes, they’ve seemingly had good opportunities to win the World Series, and they’ve disappointingly failed in that regard. But after watching the team miss the playoffs for a decade straight, I find it hard to turn my nose up at 95+ win division title-winning teams.
Since the ‘22 season, the Philadelphia Phillies (under the direction of Dave Dombrowski) have been one of the most disappointing and underwhelming teams in Philadelphia sports.
The ‘26 season isn’t worth investing a dime in or an ounce of our interest.
There are complaints that the team isn’t trying or were too cheap to match the Mets’ deal. (In reality, the offers were so different that it was almost like they were playing a different sport. Even though the Phillies offered more guaranteed money, the Mets are paying Bichette $42 in 2026, and he’ll have a chance to get a new deal next year when he might be the best free agent available.)
Looking beyond the disappointment at the Phillies not getting their shiny new toy, here’s the reality of the situation:
If the Phillies had signed Bichette, they would have been very likely to make the playoffs but still wouldn’t be the favorites because the Dodgers have an absolutely stacked roster.
Without Bichette, they are still likely to make the playoffs, but they won’t be the favorites because the Dodgers have an absolutely stacked roster.
It’s possible that the Phillies had a chance to match the Mets’ offer but simply refused because they did that calculus. Why spend a fortune in luxury tax money – as well as major penalties in amateur player acquisition – if you’re still going to be dependent on the Dodgers suffering some bad injury luck or having a bad week or so in October?
The Phillies could still make some moves to improve the team, and sadly it might not even matter. Because the way the baseball landscape currently exists, this is the Dodgers world, and the Phillies and 28 other teams are simply living in it.
Go Hawks baby. I hope everyone enjoys the most relaxing football watching day of the year today.
The 49ers couldn’t score one touchdown, meanwhile Rashid Shaheed was scoring before the first play from scrimmage and causing seismic activity. Game was over immediately.
In the past, the Cubs Convention used to have a session with President of Business Operations Crane Kenney. That, along with a session with Executive Chairman Tom Ricketts, have been eliminated from the convention agenda.
Kenney did have a wide-ranging conversation with Meghan Montemurro of the Tribune, and in her article she wrote that the Cubs have a plan for a permanent monument to their World Series champions — not just the 2016 team, but all three Cubs World Series winners:
To honor the franchise’s three World Series championship teams, the Cubs are creating an archway monument at the Clark Street entrance of Gallagher Way, slated to be unveiled the weekend of July 17, president of business operations Crane Kenney told the Tribune on Saturday. The unveiling will coincide with an in-season celebration of the 2016 squad.
The Cubs are still in the early stages of the design phase, but the organization opted for a more inclusive creation rather than a singular statue representing the 2016 team. The installation construction will start about six weeks before its reveal with one of the most iconic features, the piece revealing the name of the champions gate, being put in place shortly beforehand.
Thus, I don’t have any renderings to show you, but the location would be approximately where the Christmas tree stands in this EarthCam image of Wrigley Field, shown from SportsWorld Chicago at the southeast corner of Clark and Addison.
Here’s what Kenney said about the decision to make this monument to honor all three Cubs championship teams:
“We could never get comfortable that there was a way, and especially because that team and Game 7, you think about Game 7 and the contributions were from everyone in the entire roster, so how in the world can we ever pay tribute to the roster and coaches?” Kenney told the Tribune during the Cubs Convention at the Sheraton Grand Chicago. “So we went back and said, OK, let’s do something to honor all of them — a gate into Gallagher Way, where all the statues are where we celebrate our heroes.
“We treasure our history and heritage. It allows us to share the story, the history, and, importantly, would not leave any out.”
I agree with Kenney that no part of Cubs history should be left out. Now retire some of the numbers of the men who played for the team before 1960, as I wrote in this article a few years ago.
In Montemurro’s article, Kenney also said that Marquee Sports Network is likely going to reduce the number of Spring Training broadcasts:
Although they are still finalizing the total, Kenney indicated the number will “probably” be less than double digits for the 32-game spring slate and definitely fewer than the volume of Cactus League games they had been broadcasting annually. Last spring, 17 of the Cubs’ 29 exhibition games aired on Marquee while in 2024 the network broadcast 28 of their 35 games.
“A really hard decision, but it seemed like it made the most sense to us in terms of, like any budget, where do you want to cut and what do you want to emphasize?” Kenney said. “So we’re going to emphasize the pre, the post and the games with the same technology, same talent, to give our fans the very best games. And we made that decision on spring training, we’re going to do fewer.”
It should be noted that the 17 games carried last spring were all games played at Sloan Park. So if the total is “less than double digits” for games this spring, that’s probably around half of the 18 home games scheduled for Sloan Park this year. Away games might be available on the opponent’s TV channel. When a spring TV schedule comes out I’ll post it here. What I am hoping is that the Cubs might revive the internet audio broadcasts of spring games that they had about a decade ago. If they could do that, at least there would be some broadcast coverage of the games not televised.
Kenney also addressed the idea, which I have written about here previously, that MLB might want to get all 30 teams’ local rights in one package they could sell to TV networks along with national rights — and said the Cubs might not want want to be part of that:
If MLB wants to bring all the teams’ broadcasts under one umbrella run by the league, there currently isn’t a big appetite on the Cubs’ end to go in that direction.
“If the league comes and says, ‘What if we put all 30 teams together?’ our bias typically is we like to do things ourselves, but we would listen,” Kenney said. “But it’s hard for me to see a world where Marquee’s not predominant. It just allows us to do things, like, we want to spend more on (TV) talent, and if you’re in with the league and they’re like, ‘OK, here’s your budget for your on-air,’ we want the best on-air, and so it’s kind of like Jed (Hoyer) on a trade: We’re always listening, but I can’t see a world where we’re not doing it ourselves.”
That’s a lot of information for a Sunday morning, I grant you. I like the idea of the World Series monument very much. Maybe they could make a replica of this 1908 World Series flag and display it near the monument.
When the Detroit Tigers traded left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin to the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline in 2024, it was never likely to be an impactful deal. The Tigers got sidearmer Chase Lee in the deal, but it was the second piece, right-handed starter Joseph Montalvo, who was expected to be the modest centerpiece. Unfortunately, another injury plagued season for a Tigers pitcher made 2025 a lost season for him.
The Rangers drafted the Puerto Rican product back in 2021 out of Central Pointe Christian Academy in Kissimee, Florida. Montalvo had moved to Florida for high school with the ambition to pitch, and he was willing to take the minimum bonus to forego college and start a pro career as a 20th round pick.
At the time of the trade, Montalvo was injured with a torn ligament in his foot, which may have helped the Tigers pry him away from the Rangers for a two months of a solid reliever. Prior to that injury, Montalvo was on a great run in his first look at the High-A level. A distinct fly ball pitcher, he was racking up tons of quick outs in the air and striking out 29.9 percent of hitters faced. His stuff wasn’t overpowering, but he was mature in his ability to vary his approach and spot his fastball and slider.
Unfortunately the hoped for bump in his stuff didn’t come to frution as Montalvo moved up to the Double-A level in 2025. His reesults were really mixed from one start to another and his strikeout rate plunged. That isn’t too unusual as a young pitcher adapts to the upper levels, but he didn’t show much improvement over his 2024 work early on. Finally in late May and early June, Montalvo seemed to be settling in, but after ripping off several good starts in a row he suffered an unspecified arm injury in early June that ended his season.
About the only thing we can say is that it didn’t appear to bea major surgery involved as the Tigers often announce those, but don’t provide any details about injuries otherwise. However, Montalvo did post one picture on social media showing a full arm brace on his extended right arm in September, three months after the initial injury. So we can at least assume it was a significant injury. This makes it difficult to project him in 2026. Is he going to start the season on time? We’ll assume so since it apparently wasn’t a UCL surgery, but his status remains a little bit up in the air.
Montalvo has the size at 6’2” 185 pounds to develop more velocity, and his flexibility and athleticism say that may come with a little more time, but the injury short-circuited progress in that regard last year. One of his key selling points when the Tigers traded for him was his ability to command three pitches, but he still needed a bump in terms of his stuff to carry him into the upper levels of the farm system as a legitimate starting pitching prospect.
Montalvo’s athleticism helped him command everything despite a lot of subtle variants in his approach. He gets down the mound pretty well and smoothly works into a low three-quarters release that seems to throw hitters off a bit. He also has pretty good feel for varying his angles and shapes to suit the hitter. He would jam left-handers with more of a true riding fourseamer to his gloveside, and then shift to get a better angle to his armside and throw the same fourseamer with more run. In short, he has quite a bit of what scouts will sum up as pitchability.
Montalvo is often able to get a lot of weak fly balls, pop-ups, and some whiffs just by never letting a hitter see anything quite the same way twice. On the other hand, without overpowering stuff, his mistakes get hit over the fences a fair amount and he’s had some bouts of giving up homers in bunches. So instead of hoping a harder throwing pitcher develops some command, the upside with Montalvo is that a little boost in stuff will take advantage of his pitching ability and get him to the majors in relatively short order.
Here’s a look from after the trade in 2024.
He backs the fourseamer with an above average sweeping slider at 83 mph and a decent circle change that is still a little firm but does run a good amount. At his best with the Rangers, his ability to spot both of those pitches consistently helped them play up and made him a pretty decent starting pitching prospect. The hope was that he’d add a little more strength to his lanky frame and get to sitting more consistently in the mid-90’s. As things stand he’s usually around 93 mph, and with the Tigers he’s had some off days where the velo is down a little bit. Steadier mid-90’s velocity anda minor breakthrough with his changeup are the keys for him going forward.
The lack of progress since he was acquired, combined with the recent injury history, have the risk meter pretty high on Montalvo now. At his best he shows a lot of nice feel for pitching and can move his stuff around the zone, set hitters up, and get them off balance. He needs to stay healthy and develop a little boost in the stuff department. Hopefully he’s able to take advantage of the rehabilitation process and the offseason to get stronger. If he’s able to start getting traction in Double-A this spring he’ll move right back up the rankings by midseason.
After a massive leap from the bottom of the poll to a tie for runner-up, it seemed like either catcher Landon Hodge or righthander Reudis Diaz was poised to win the next Vote. Indeed, on his 21st ballot, Hodge prevailed, with 12 of 62 (19%) votes:
Hodge’s win was not decisive, however, as his 19.35% share of the ballot is the lowest winning amount for this entire voting season. As a 2025 draft choice by the White Sox, this is Hodge’s first time in our Prospect Vote — and he’s also the first catcher to advance in our Vote.
Past No. 30s in the SSS Top Prospect Vote 2025 Blake Larson (21%) 2024 Mario Camilletti (33%) 2023 Voting lasted only 24 rounds 2022 Voting lasted only 17 rounds 2021 Andrew Pérez (30%) 2020 Will Kincanon (46%) 2019 Jonathan Stiever (39%) 2018 Kade McClure (51%)
Newcomer Yobal Rodriguez garnered just one vote this round, finishing in 10th place. This time around, slugger Ryan Galanie joins the mix.
South Side Sox Top-Voted White Sox Prospects for 2026
Alexander Albertus Third Baseman Age 21 2025 high level Arizona Complex League (Rookie) Age relative to high level +0.4 years Overall 2025 stats 8 games ▪️ 0 HR ▪️ 2 RBI ▪️ .333/.520/.444 ▪️ 3-of-3 (100.0%) SB ▪️ 6 BB ▪️ 3 K ▪️ 1.000 FLD%▪️ 0.3 WAR
What can you say further about Albertus? He seems to have great tools but an uncanny ability to stay off of the field (just eight games in a season-plus in the White Sox system). In 2025, he was assigned to Kannapolis but was … wait for it … injured. He lasted just eight games of ACL rehab before hitting the IL-60 again.
Marcelo Alcala Center Fielder Age 20 2025 high level ACL (Rookie) Age relative to high level -0.6 years Overall 2025 stats 42 games ▪️ 7 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .233/.325/.479 ▪️ 14-of-15 (93.3%) SB ▪️ 14 BB ▪️ 63 K ▪️ .935 FLD%▪️ 1.2 WAR
Alcala is a talent to dream on. Though still raw, he flashed power that we simply do not see in the White Sox system, especially when combined with the raw speed that can swipe bases at a 90%+ rate. Defense and bat discipline are issues to be sure, but imagine what additional outfield reps, AZ batting cage time, and even some training on the bases could do.
Aldrin Batista Right-Handed Starting Pitcher Age 22 2025 SSS Prospect Poll ranking 6 2025 high level Winston-Salem (High-A) Age relative to high level -1.2 years Overall 2025 stats 2-0 ▪️ 7 games (2 starts) ▪️ 14 IP ▪️ 5.79 ERA ▪️ 17 K ▪️ 7 BB ▪️ 1.429 WHIP ▪️-1.2 WAR
Batista was our No. 6-voted player in last year’s poll and top righthander — and then disaster struck, as he started the third Dash game of the season on April 6 and then was out more than four months with a stress fracture in his right (pitching) elbow. His return in late August was iffy, with three poor relief appearances of five. But he ended the season with a scoreless (two-inning) “opener” start, which hopefully reverses the curse for 2026.
Reudis Diaz Right-handed relief pitcher Age 20 2025 high level ACL (Rookie) Age relative to high level -2.1 years Overall 2025 stats 1-1 ▪️ 1 SV▪️ 21 games (4 finishes) ▪️ 27 2/3 IP ▪️ 2.28.ERA ▪️ 18 K ▪️ 8 BB ▪️ 1.084 WHIP ▪️1.2 WAR
Who? You’re forgiven for being unfamiliar with an extremely young arm who hasn’t yet gotten out of rookie ball, but our No. 77 prospect a year ago (then a starter, repeating the DSL and killing it) made a successful adjustment Stateside. He’ll return to starting in 2026, likely getting his feet wet in Arizona and getting a promotion to Low-A in the second half of the season.
Ryan Galanie First Baseman Age 25 2025 high level Birmingham (AA) Age relative to high level +1.3 years Overall 2025 stats (High-A/AA) 119 games ▪️ 11 HR ▪️ 94 RBI ▪️ .276/.327/.422 ▪️ 14-of-17 (82.4%) SB ▪️ 35 BB ▪️ 79 K ▪️ .995 FLD%▪️ 1.1 WAR
It’s been a slow but steady climb for this 13th-rounder in 2023. The good news here is, with the caveat that Galanie has always competed older than his level, Galanie has found some footing. While his power/slugging numbers are merely OK, he drove in 94 runs in 2025. He disappeared a bit in the playoffs for Birmingham (just four hits in six games, with five walks as well) but started every game in the march to a second consecutive Southern League title for the Barons.
Jairo Iriarte Right-Handed Relief Pitcher Age 24 2025 SSS Top Prospect Vote Ranking 19 2025 high level Charlotte (AAA) Age relative to high level -4.3 years Overall 2025 stats (Rookie/AAA) 3-3▪️ 1 SV ▪️ 37 games (5 starts, 9 finishes) ▪️ 48 IP ▪️ 7.13 ERA ▪️ 50 K ▪️ 37 BB ▪️ 1.917 WHIP ▪️ -0.8 WAR
The 2025 season was an utter disaster for Iriarte, who went from prospective South Side rotation member to lost in space. The righty, who made his brief debut in the majors in 2024, both lost the plate and misplaced his strikeout power. The Brian Bannister Pitching Lab has its work cut out here, for sure.
Javier Mogollón Shortstop Age 20 2025 high level Kannapolis (Low-A) Age relative to high level -1.4 years Overall 2025 stats 51 games ▪️ 5 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .220/.347/.387 ▪️ 15-of-21 (71.4%) SB ▪️ 30 BB ▪️ 56 K ▪️ .971 FLD%▪️ 1.0 WAR
An ascending star just one year ago, we have to tap the breaks a bit on Mogollón after a lackluster first full season of minors ball. While still young for his level and managing to keep his head above water in a new league every season of his career, Mogollón’s undeniable hitting in Rookie ball fell off significantly with the Cannon Ballers. However, how much of that was due to battling injury is undetermined, as Mogollón was shelved for what turned out to be the season on July 2.
Yobal Rodriguez Right-Handed Starting Pitcher Age18 2025 high levelDSL White Sox (Rookie) Age relative to high level -1.5 years Overall 2025 stats0-3 ▪️ 13 games (10 starts) ▪️ 30 1/3 IP ▪️2.97 ERA ▪️ 33 K ▪️ 13 BB ▪️ 1.022 WHIP ▪️ 1.2 WAR
Rodriguez is a rare DSL pitcher, not for his relatively light innings load, but as a primary starter — and at just 17 years old (Yobal turns 18 on February 9). Inasmuch as it’s tough to project anyone out of the DSL, especially pitchers, you could hardly have hoped for more from him in his pro debut.
Tyler Schweitzer Left-Handed Starting Pitcher Age25 2025 high levelCharlotte (AAA) Age relative to high level -3.3 years Overall 2025 stats (AA/AAA) 8-2 ▪️ 27 games (10 starts) ▪️ 99 2/3 IP ▪️4.61 ERA ▪️ 81 K ▪️ 41 BB ▪️ 1.344 WHIP ▪️ 0.8 WAR
Schweitzer relieved in most of his games in 2025, but he remains a starter in our eyes given he was consistently paired with Tanner McDougal in Birmingham Barons starts. And in Birmingham, Schweitzer was divine: 1.27 ERA that included a long scoreless streak leading to a Charlotte promotion, 0.946 WHIP. However, everything the southpaw did as a Baron, he undid as a Knight (7.92 ERA, 1.740 ERA). While other gilded arms (Drew Thorpe, Grant Taylor) get to skip Charlotte entirely, Schweitzer was not so lucky. And that luck could prevent him from ever seeing the majors.
Gage Ziehl Right-Handed Starting Pitcher Age22 2025 high levelSomerset (Yankees AA) Age relative to high level -2.7 years Overall 2025 stats (Low-A/High-A/AA) 7-6 ▪️ 22 games (21 starts, 1 finish) ▪️ 107 IP ▪️4.12 ERA ▪️ 90 K ▪️ 19 BB ▪️ 1.262 WHIP ▪️ 1.4 WAR
Ziehl was the return from the Yankees in the trade deadline swap of Austin Slater, and based on the nothing value of Slater this trade can’t possibly be a loss for the White Sox. The righty was a busy arm even before the trade, pitching at three levels for New York and settling at High-A for the White Sox. Pitching young for his level, Ziehl held his own pretty well.
Round 24 of voting was the last of 2023 (we did not do an actual wrap for the voting, but Jordan Sprinkle ended up being our final pick), and the full archive.
The San Diego Padres have not made many additions to their big league roster this offseason and now one of the additions they did make will miss four weeks with an injury. Korean infielder Sung-Mun Song was signed by the Padres and was expected to compete for an infield utility role that would allow him to move around the infield to spell other infielders. Song was also expected to provide manager Craig Stammen with some roster flexibility and he still might. First, Song will have to recover from an oblique injury that will cause him to miss four weeks. Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball also believes this injury will cause him to miss the World Baseball Classic and added that he is already planning on rehabbing with the San Diego medical staff in Arizona.
Padres News:
The injury to Song underscored the slow offseason the Padres have had. There have been five players added to the major league roster with one of those being Song. The other major addition was Michael King, but the Friar Faithful have been disappointed in the lack of activity from San Diego.
The most notable teams that missed out on signing free agents Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette were the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Blue Jays. One of those teams may pivot to free agent Cody Bellinger or will the New York Mets still try to add Bellinger even after adding Bichette?
There was speculation that the Arizona Diamondbacks may reverse course and consider trades for second baseman Ketel Marte after saying he was no longer available, but Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen announced that is not the case.
After the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Tucker there was speculation they may be interested in trading outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. Reports state that it is unlikely.
Prior to getting into the meat of this week’s post, I wanted to add two disclaimers that many of you will probably deem unnecessary but for my own psyche, I am going to do it anyway.
The entirety of the article is assuming that JoJo Romero is going to be traded before the regular season. Yes, I know what assuming can do, but I believe at this point Chaim Bloom has shown his understanding of the current situation and is doing his due diligence before accepting a deal. After “panicking” for the inactivity, I am back on solid ground and ready for Chaim Time to continue.
Like Chaim, I also understand this is a rebuild. There have been a few comments in a couple previous articles pointing out that my desires for the team are not realistic during a rebuild. I am a fan first and still believe in the current talent, although it is lacking, of the majority of the roster, new decision makers, and Oli Marmol (insert jeers). While I know winning is not priority, I still crave competitive baseball with players getting their opportunity for proving themselves. I cannot support what the White Sox and Rockies had done, losing 100+ games on purpose, but if the Cardinals can hover 15 or less games under .500, I still anticipate plenty of fun and exciting games.
And with that, the main attraction.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Chaim Bloom are officially full speed ahead in the rebuild after trading Nolan Arenado to the Arizona Diamondbacks. With that necessary deal being done, it sounds like things are heating up around Brendan Donovan, but I will put his future in St. Louis at a true toss up. Even with the major league team having talent stripped from the roster, I believe there is still plenty to be excited about or storylines to follow.
The bullpen of any team is always one for conversation, but those talks differ depending on the contending status of each team. For the Cardinals, their current reliever set up would be cause for concern for teams with playoff hopes, but in St. Louis, this alignment means opportunity abound across the board. Assuming JoJo Romero is dealt to one of those postseason hopefuls, reliever Matt Svanson’s role is one that will be one to keep an eye on this season.
Matt Svanson could be the closer of the future or Kyle Leahy 2.0
Matt Svanson was acquired by John Mozeliak at the 2023 trade deadline for Paul DeJong, which surely Cardinals Twitter took kindly to and would never once call it “another dumpster dive by Mo.” Svanson had put together a nice season at the time of the trade, but did so as a 24-year-old in High-A. He demonstrated quality strikeout and walk abilities while allowing less than a base runner per inning, leading to the Cardinals to push him right to Double-A Springfield when he arrived to his new organization.
Svanson took well to his new team and level over 15 games, putting up a 3.00 ERA while still keeping his command and punchout stuff in his small sample. That momentum pushed into the 2024 season when Svanson really took off and became an interesting name to focus on for the future. Over 53 games, spanning 63.2 innings, Svanson took over the closer role for Springfield, closing 27 games with a 2.69 ERA. His peripherals took a hit, though, with his K/BB rate heading in the wrong direction, leading to a 3.93 FIP. That led to Svanson heading to the Arizona Fall League, where he was able to get his command back in order while playing in a lower stress environment against younger hitters.
Moving then to 2025, Svanson received an invite to major league Spring Training, but only received three innings of work before spending the rest of camp on the minor league side of things. He started the regular season in Memphis, but received his first promotion to the big league on April 16. Despite fine results in a mediocre bullpen, Svanson rode the Memphis shuttle multiple times during the season’s first half, totaling 26 innings over 17 games with a 3.12 ERA and showcasing his previous quality command and strikeout stuff.
The second half unlocked an even better version of the reliever with Svanson becoming a trusted part of the bullpen. After the All-Star break, Svanson pitched in 22 games and covered 34.1 innings of relief work while pitching in different situations. In those games, he put up a 1.05 ERA and a near 33% strikeout rate with opposing hitters totaling a .227 slugging percentage against him. For the year, the nearly-27-year-old went 4-0 with a 1.94 ERA (2.72 FIP) and a 29.1% K-rate.
Manager Oli Marmol was tasked with figuring out the best way to use a bullpen full of untested youngsters and that created opportunity to pitch in every inning except for the first two this season. As the Cardinals look into their best set up to win them however many games they do, the bullpen alignment figures to be a major part of whatever team success occurs this year. While he was called upon in any situation, Svanson’s strong first half made him a go-to guy later in the game. In his last 15 appearances, 13 of them came in the 6th inning or later. Over Svanson’s 39 games, 11 of them came when he had 0 or 1 day of rest, while 23 of his appearances were two days’ rest or less.
That usage did not hurt Svanson’s overall efficiency, as he had a stronger second half than first. After the All-Star Break, he had a minuscule 1.05 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 34.1 innings of work. Svanson grabbed his second win of the season with two innings of scoreless work and then followed it up one day later with his first career hold. The fact that Svanson was able to maintain his workload while also increase his strikeout stuff after the break, ramping it up to a 32.1% K-rate after July.
When determining what Svanson’s best role is for the future, I looked at FanGraphs’ split that breaks appearances down into low-, medium-, and high-leverage situations. In his 60.1 innings, 42.1 were what were considered low-leverage spots, and that is where Svanson thrived (as to be expected when this was the bulk of his work). He held hitters to a .132 batting average, compared to a .217 average in 13.2 medium-leverage innings, and a .250 average in a small 4.1 frame sample size in high-leverage spots.
For next season, the Cardinals figure to have an opening in every meaningful role, with Romero being the player with the most closing experience and Kyle Leahy being moved to the rotation. For the 2026 Cardinals, winning is unfortunately not priority number one, so that closer role may be one that the team is not as eager to fill at this moment. Ryne Stanek could be someone that the Cardinals turn to for a temporary option in the ninth inning, but they could also turn to Svanson after he has shown the ability to handle the role in Springfield. That could provide long-term stability for the backend of the Cardinals’ bullpen, but betting on extended effectiveness for relievers is always a tough gamble.
Another factor that the coaching staff will have to take into account is how often Svanson would throw if he were to be a closer. The Cardinals are currently projected to win around 73.5 games next year, meaning there may not be a lot of save opportunities for whoever the Cardinals deem the ninth inning guy. Because of that, Svanson may best be utilized in the vacant Kyle Leahy role and be that guy who can pitch at any spot in the game. Leahy did that last season, making at least one appearance in every inning, including his spot start at the end of the year. In term’s of FanGraphs’ leverage meter, Leahy threw 52.1 of his 88 innings in medium- or high-leverage spots. He became the guy that Marmol could call on most everyday (36 of his 62 appearances came with two days of rest of less) when the team need to get out of a jam.
In order to maximize Svanson’s value for this season, I would like to see him be that firefighter that Leahy turned into last year. Working against him, though, would be his groundball rate, which came in at 43% last season right around league average. If the Cardinals want to find a guy who can get a double play in a big spot, Svanson may have to use his sinker in a different way in order to get those grounders.
Regardless of where Svanson ends up out of Spring Training, the Cardinals have to be thrilled with what he has shown thus far. With a 97mph fastball and above-average breaking stuff, Svanson could stabilize that relief corps until a more solidified role for his future comes up.
This week’s Club Sportico essay focuses on a recent announcement by the Kansas City Royals, who revealed a potential competitive advantage that’s largely untapped across Major League Baseball.
The Royals on Tuesday announced a new change that the club believes will result in an extra 1.5 wins next season. It wasn’t a free agent signing, a new manager or a new piece of equipment (remember torpedo bats?). Instead it was a shift in engineering. The club is moving in the outfield walls at Kauffman Stadium and lowering the fences by 18” in most places.
In their explanation of the change, Royals executives showed just how much detail went into the planning. Kauffman Stadium is notoriously unfriendly to home run hitters—a product of its cavernous outfield and prevailing wind patterns—and the team recently deputized assistant GM Daniel Mack to study what an adjustment might look like.
Mack assigned a run value to every fly ball hit in Kauffman, then layered on the team’s current roster of hitters and pitchers, its opponents, the wind patterns and even the stadium’s altitude. He then played with distances and fence heights that would not only play around the league average, but also give this current Royals team a statistical advantage.
The result is a layout the team thinks will benefit its hitters—including generational star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.—a lot more than it will harm its pitchers, who had among the lowest fly ball rates of any staff in the majors last season. Welcome to the “Moneywall Era.”
Is this a new trend coming for MLB parks across the U.S.? That’s explored in the back half of the essay. Here is an excerpt ✍️:
So what’s to stop a team from looking at its roster every offseason and making tweaks to its fences? Or more dramatically, what’s to stop a team from putting its outfield wall on tracks and moving it based on who’s in town, which way the wind is blowing, or who’s starting on the mound?
The answer, technically, is nothing (!). MLB’s 191-page rule book is light on guidelines for the dimensions of the outfield. The centerfield wall must be at least 400 feet from the plate, and the rest of the outfield wall must be at least 325 feet. That’s for venues built after 1958, which allows stadiums like Fenway Park to get away with its 302-foot right field fence.
According to someone familiar with the broader league bylaws, MLB has no limit on the number of times you can make changes (more on that later). That said, there are a few reasons you might not see a rush of alterations at ballparks across America. The biggest one—of course—involves money. Construction isn’t cheap, of course, but neither are the tickets that sit right up against the outfield walls.
In addition to helping the team on the field, the Royals’ move will add about 230 seats in Kaufman’s left and right field seating areas. If we assume for a moment that those tickets cost $80 each, that’s an additional $1.5 million in sales annually for the team (before accounting for the extra beer volume). For reference, Royals revenue in 2024 was $320 million.
If there’s any team for whom cost would be irrelevant, it’s the Mets. And billionaire owner Steve Cohen moved Citi Field’s fences in three years ago, but that move wasn’t about on-field play. It allowed the team to build out a new club area with living room-style seats and personal TVs.
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With Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette both off the board, Cody Bellinger is still potentially in the cards for both the Mets and Yankees, with the Mets still needing an outfielder and the Yankees needing protection for Aaron Judge in the lineup.
Max Goodman of NJ.com runs down a list of five possible targets for the Mets after the Bo Bichette signing—a list which includes Bellinger.
Travis Sawchik of MLB.com explores the best fit for Framber Valdez between the Mets, Orioles, Giants, and Cubs—all of the teams that have been connected to the top remaining free agent starter—when considering rotation depth, ballpark, and the fact that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher.
Reds star Elly De La Cruz turned down an extension offer from the Reds last spring that would have been the largest contract offer in franchise history, eclipsing Joey Votto’s ten-year, $225 million deal from 2012.
Speaking of the Reds, they are reportedly receiving trade interest in their starting pitchers.
For The Athletic, Chad Jennings and Stephen J. Nesbitt take a look back through sports history to try to find precedent for the dynasty the Dodgers are currently building.
This Date in Mets History
On this date in 2018, the Mets formally announced the signing of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. It ended up being his last major league season.
The Dodgers have been fairly quiet this offseason compared to the last two, but when they have struck, the bounty has been plentiful.
After bringing back Miguel Rojas for the final season of his big league career, the Dodgers shored up their bullpen by bringing in Edwin Díaz to a three-year deal worth $69 million. After a month of wondering where star free agents like Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger or Bo Bichette would sign, the Dodgers stunned the baseball world by agreeing to a four-year, $240 million deal with Tucker, making him the highest paid outfielder per annual average value in baseball history.
Tucker is now slated to be the team’s primary right fielder, sliding Teoscar Hernández back to left field where he primarily played during the 2024 season. Hernández was previously involved in trade rumors during the winter meetings, as the Kansas City Royals expressed interest in him, but the Dodgers are reportedly unlikely to deal him away, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Dodgers are more likely to consider deals for either outfielder Ryan Ward or pitcher Bobby Miller.
Fresh off their stunning signing of free-agent right fielder Kyle Tucker, the Dodgers are expected to keep Teoscar Hernández and move him to left field. As reported previously, Hernández’s name has surfaced in trade conversations. The Dodgers, however, are more likely to explore deals for outfielder Ryan Ward, a career minor leaguer who last season was MVP of the Pacific Coast League at 27, or right-hander Bobby Miller, who has been a disappointment.
Links
Alongside the Dodgers in the sweepstakes for Kyle Tucker were the New York Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mets reportedly offered a similar short-term deal for Tucker reported at four years for $220 million that included a $75 million signing bonus with no deferrals, while the Blue Jays were the only team of the three to go for a long-term deal, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeting that the deal was for 10 years for $350 million.
On the surface, Kyle Tucker didn’t have quite the success at home with the Chicago Cubs than he did away from Wrigley Field. In reality, his home and road split divergence was mostly due to a fractured hand that tanked his second half numbers at the plate, but it doesn’t help that Wrigley Field isn’t so friendly to hitters, ranking 26th in park factor. Mike Petriello of MLB.com examines how the move to a more hitter-friendly environment in Dodger Stadium (along with the hopes of him staying healthy) could help Tucker put up similar offensive numbers he had with the Houston Astros.
Chad Jennings and Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic compare the Kyle Tucker signing to other notable moves across sports where a star player joined a defending champion, such as Kevin Durant’s heavily maligned move to join the Golden State Warriors.
Matt Shaw says he has spent a good deal of time in the outfield in college and he’s up for the challenge of being a supersub. I’m not going to discourage him. Nico Hoerner opined that it was a good thing to have a quality player as a sub, and that time off isn’t a Bad Thing. Nico is a ballplayer — right now he’s the face of the Cubs, and that’s the attitude fans want to see.
I think, in the end, that it really was Kyle Tucker’s approach that doomed him in Chicago. He wasn’t seen to be giving it his all. Whether that perception is accurate, I don’t know. But it is real. Ian Happ has suffered some from a similar perception despite his propensity for flinging his body about with abandon.
Anyway. ‘King Kyle’ is planning on winning a ring. The Dodgers have already meatloafed — they’re eyeing a threepeat. That would even them up with the Oakland Athletics (1972-74), and the Yankees (1998-2000), who also have skeins of four (1936-39) and five (1949-53) consecutive wins. The Cubs are among the handful of teams that have repeated.
The Phillies, Mets, the Cubs, and possibly the Brewers will have something to say about that. Others could surprise, but then they would have to. The Blue Jays, Mariners, and possibly the Red Sox will have words.
But it would surprise exactly nobody if the Dodgers won.
Saturday, the Cubs convention was in full swing. We’ll have another stacked playlist. Congratulations to Jon Lester, Jody Davis, and the late Vince Lloyd, who talked to me from the radio and TV quite a bit when I was small. And good luck to Da Bears, who play tonight at Soldier Field.
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I spoke to a #Rockies official this morning who emphatically says that that a report that the club blocked Kris Bryant from attending a #Cubs 2016 World Series reunion "isn't true."
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One hallmark of the AJ Hinch-era Detroit Tigers, especially with Scott Harris in charge, has been flexibility. On a roster without many stars, Hinch’s job has been to maximize the value of each player. This takes different forms for each facet of the game. On the position player side, it usually means defensive versatility – eight Tigers played at least two positions at some point last season – pinch hitting for any potential edge, and a general trend favoring the platoon advantage.
Today, I’m going to take a look at how Hinch attempted to control the game with his offensive strategies. To do so, I’ll be comparing how often he puts his players in the best position to succeed and how well they do once they get into these advantageous situations. Spoiler alert: he’s very good at it.
Let’s start with pinch-hitting. This is the part of a game the manager can most obviously exert his control. The eye test says Hinch loves to pinch hit, often to our collective outrage. Let Kerry Carpenter hit! What do you mean Trey Sweeney is hitting for Javy Baez against a right-handed reliever? Taking a step back, though, shows Hinch frequently used his weapons at the best time and situations. Here’s a table showing both how often teams used pinch-hitters, and also how well they did, sorted by wRC+.
Team Name
PH PAs
PH wRC+
WSN
85
131
MIN
104
129
BAL
92
119
SFG
97
117
ATH
117
109
TOR
156
107
DET
209
106
MIA
162
102
COL
117
102
LAA
101
101
NYY
107
98
STL
77
91
ATL
107
88
LAD
121
84
CHC
111
83
LEAGUE AVERAGE
124
81
NYM
108
80
PIT
105
78
TEX
168
77
SEA
166
74
ARI
128
73
PHI
95
71
KCR
131
68
SDP
148
60
CIN
110
60
MIL
136
56
HOU
123
54
CLE
168
53
BOS
116
49
TBR
101
41
CHW
150
16
Here’s what stands out from that table. Firstly, the Tigers lapped the field in pinch hitting plate appearances. I sorted by success because that’s important too, but Detroit was first in plate appearances for pinch hitters. Their 41-PA lead on Cleveland and Texas is roughly the same as the gap between Cleveland/Texas and Arizona in 12th. Put differently, the Tigers pinch-hit about 80% more than a league average team.
Fortunately, those weren’t wasted plate appearances. Detroit’s collective wRC+ of 106 ranked 7th overall, but that’s not the whole story. Only one of the six teams ahead of them, Toronto, used an above-average amount of pinch hitters. Essentially, the Tigers pinch hit more than any team and got better results than all but one team who came close to matching their frequency. Teams like Washington might have done a bit better, but by using less than half the plate appearances as Detroit, it impacted far fewer games.
Interestingly, there’s pretty limited connection between overall team quality and pinch-hitting frequency. The Phillies and Yankees are the only top 10 offenses with a far below average number of pinch hitters, while Seattle and Toronto are in the top 10 for both team wRC+ and pinch hitting PAs. There isn’t a painstakingly obvious trend that says good teams should or shouldn’t pinch hit; it’s a personnel decision that Detroit has decided to go against the grain to lean into.
Conventional wisdom says pinch-hitting is generally a poor idea. The “pinch-hit penalty” is pretty widely accepted. Last year, the league-average pinch hitter posted an 81 wRC+ last year, about the same as Matt Vierling or Andy Ibanez. Managers know this, and yet Hinch intentionally embraced pinch-hitting in 2025.
Clearly, Detroit thinks they’ve found an advantage here. With both intentional roster building decisions and Hinch’s generally hands-on managing tendencies, Detroit has created an outlier. It seems likely that Hinch is driving this shift for Detroit, since he’s ultimately responsible for deciding who plays when and where and for preparing his players to impact the game. By making this a fundamental part of his team strategy, players know their role and players on the bench anticipate getting into the game rather than just sitting on the bench until their name is called. It’s a small area to have a large advantage in, but consistently timely results from pinch hitting can skew more games than a typical 200-PA sample would suggest.
Another element of offensive optimization is the platoon advantage. There’s a lot of overlap here with pinch hitting, because most pinch hitters will enter to obtain the platoon advantage, but consistently getting the platoon edge goes far beyond pinch hitting. Here again we see Hinch’s Tigers prioritizing this strategy. Let’s check a similar table as before, but with the platoon advantage replacing pinch hitting.
Team Name
Total Platoon PAs
Platoon wRC+
CHC
3316
122
ATH
2773
120
NYY
3644
119
LAD
3376
118
NYM
3605
117
MIL
3309
116
SEA
3926
116
ARI
4115
115
DET
3630
114
PHI
3227
112
BOS
3365
112
TOR
3256
109
LEAGUE AVERAGE
3327
108
STL
2877
106
ATL
3527
104
SDP
3039
103
WSN
3857
102
BAL
3533
101
MIA
3503
100
TBR
3680
100
SFG
3113
98
MIN
3325
97
CIN
3128
97
CLE
4667
96
CHW
3456
96
HOU
2145
95
TEX
3350
94
LAA
2295
93
PIT
3112
91
KCR
3023
91
COL
2636
81
As with pinch hitting, the Tigers are one of few teams to be in the top-10 for both platoon-advantage PAs and performance. Using the platoon advantage, though, seems like a better understood strategy than pinch hitting, though. Team performance is clustered pretty tightly around average, unlike for pinch hitting. There also seems to be a much stronger relationship between team success and how well they do with the platoon advantage, which makes sense. An ambitious manager can get the platoon advantage in something like 4000 plate appearances, rather than 200 for pinch hitters. This means Hinch stands out less, but still compare favorably to the rest of the league when it comes to leveraging the platoon advantage for his hitters.
Neither of these stats is the end-all, be-all, of course. Both have some flaws or overall codependency with other, more important, variables. It’s difficult to distinguish which managers get the most plate appearances to batters with the platoon advantage from managers who have lots of switch hitters, for starters, and the best offenses get more plate appearances in basically any situation by way of making outs less frequently. Still, it’s better to be good at these than not, and the way Hinch has separated the Tigers from the rest of the pack is particularly notable. It’s particularly crucial for a team with a deep roster of average or better hitters, but little in the way of true star power on the offensive side.
When considering his success with both pinch-hitting and platoons and with the frequently-covered, highly-aggressive baserunning the Tigers have exhibited lately, it’s clear Hinch is doing his best to maximize every player on his roster. For the Tigers to bounce back from a disappointing second half with a similar roster, he’ll need to continue getting more out of his players than anyone expects. Look for continued aggression with the flexible parts of his roster, and hope for continued success, as Detroit tries to win its first division title of the decade.
On Thursday, news broke that Kyle Tucker, the top free agent in this year’s market, signed a four-year, $240 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tucker’s massive contract — the second-largest by average annual value in MLB history — gets added to a cadre of other gigantic free-agent deals the team is currently paying for:
Shohei Ohtani: 10 years, $700m (through 2034)
Blake Snell: five years, $182m (2031)
Mookie Betts: 12 years, $365m (2032)
Tyler Glasnow: five years, $136.5m (2029)
Yoshinobu Yamaoto: 12 years, $325m (2035)
Freddie Freeman: six years, $162m (2027)
Edwin Díaz: three years, $69m (2028)
Teoscar Hernández: three years, $66m (2028)
Tanner Scott: four years, $72m (2028)
Tommy Edman: five years, $74m (2030)
Will Smith: 10 years, $140m (2033)
In 2026, the Dodgers will also pay Max Muncy $10 million and the nearly unusable Blake Treinen $13.5 million. Spotrac has the Dodgers’ 2026 payroll at $413,597,413, which will add a luxury tax penalty of just over $160 million, which means that the Dodgers will be paying somewhere in the neighborhood of $575 million for their roster in 2026, at least as far as the bookkeeping goes (Ohtani, for example, will get paid $2 million in 2026 to play for the Dodgers and $68 million sometime after he is retired; for luxury tax purposes, his contract counts as about $46 million in 2026). The total amount of money they have committed is over $2 billion.
Frankly, this is absurd.
The second-most expensive roster in baseball is the New York Mets, who come in with a pre-tax payroll of about $360 million. The Phillies and Blue Jays are at $325 million and $312 million, respectively, and five other teams (the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, Braves, and Cubs) fall between $250 and $300 milliion. As of this moment, half the league has a payroll under $200 million, or less than 47% of the Dodgers’ pre-tax payroll. When you factor in the luxury tax, only the Mets are within even 80% of what the Dodgers are spending. And 22 of the league’s 30 teams would be spending less than half of what the Dodgers are.
The Milwaukee Brewers, with a current estimated total payroll via Spotrac of $155.5 million, will barely spend a quarter of what the Dodgers will, and will spend less on their entire team than the Dodgers will pay in luxury tax. These two teams met in the National League Championship Series last season.
I’m not really here to talk about how unfair it is that the Brewers could realistically only afford to pay one or two contracts like the 12 that the Dodgers currently have on their roster — and simply could not afford several of them, no matter the circumstances. I’m not really here to bemoan the fact that the Brewers aren’t stretching their budget a little further; while I might have one or two complaints, what, realistically, should they do? The Tuckers, Alex Bregmans, and Bo Bichettes of the world simply are not going to play in Milwaukee. There are enough teams in “more desirable” cities that would merely need to match the Brewers’ offer — which they could, easily, without stressing their overall payroll in the same way that Milwaukee would have to — that those players would simply go somewhere else, no matter how good the Brewers are. Needless to say, Milwaukee is not going to be a destination for a player like Ohtani, no matter how good they are and how much money they could offer.
I don’t blame the players for this. I don’t really even blame the Dodgers for this: they have the money for Tucker even though they don’t really need him. Why not spend it?
No, I’m writing this because, while there are arguments to be made that certain small-market clubs should be spending more money and some mega-wealthy owners should invest more of their own cash into their teams, the simple fact is that baseball has reached an untenable place.
For what it’s worth, I do not believe the Brewers are cheap. They’ve done an excellent job investing in infrastructure and player development, and while they’re in the league’s smallest market, they have a bigger payroll than 11 other teams at the moment. The numbers are a little tricky to track down, but by net worth, Mark Attanasio — while mega wealthy — ranks near the bottom of the league (27th among 30 by most estimates). Frankly, he’s done an excellent job getting results on the field, given the market he’s working in and the resources available to him.
The problem here is that the wealthiest owners in the sport keep getting wealthier. The Dodgers and Blue Jays, for example, are effectively governed not by “owners” but by conglomerates that are worth tens of billions of dollars. How is a team like the Brewers supposed to compete with that?
This will all come to a head after next season, when baseball’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires. It is almost a guarantee that there will be a lockout; whether that extends into the beginning of the 2027 season will be the biggest storyline of next offseason.
But the first battle that will happen in 2027 is not going to be between the owners and the players, but between the owners like Attanasio and the ownership groups like Guggenheim Baseball Management and Rogers Communications. Essentially, what’s going to happen is that most of the teams in the league are going to argue that baseball needs far more revenue sharing and limits on how much money the wealthiest teams can spend. The wealthiest — and most powerful — owners are going to fight tooth and nail to avoid this outcome. (Interestingly, the teams arguing for more revenue sharing, or at least on salary limitations, will likely include the New York Yankees, the traditional “evil empire.”)
We keep hearing about a salary cap and how ownership is going to push for that as a solution to limiting salaries. If they’re smart, the owners will come up with a slyer way of presenting this option; the term ‘salary cap’ is politically charged in baseball labor history and is thus something that the players will probably absolutely refuse under all circumstances.
Ownership should look to the NBA for inspiration, in more than one way. In 2023, the league snuck what was essentially a hard salary cap by the players in the latest CBA, but instead of calling it a “hard cap,” they called it “tax aprons.” The penalties levied on teams for exceeding these aprons, which include severe restrictions on roster flexibility in addition to financial penalties, function essentially as a hard cap. But they didn’t call it that, so players were more open to it, and it seems like the effectiveness of these tax aprons was perhaps underestimated (probably by both sides).
Personally, I’d like to see baseball go to a flexible cap system more like the NBA used prior to the last labor negotiation — I think this type of system can benefit both the best players, who can still make massive amounts of money, and younger players, who reach a version of free agency more quickly (they become restricted free agents after four years) than their counterparts in baseball (unrestricted after six years). The “max contract” system also naturally limits how many huge contracts a single team can have at a time, and the accompanying salary floor required in this system means that every team in the NBA can — and often does — have max contracts. The Cleveland Cavaliers currently have three players on max contracts, more than the Los Angeles Lakers do.
Beyond that, the league can push for more revenue sharing, but I think the roster restrictions will be the key to creating real change. What if, for example, teams who exceed a certain luxury-tax threshold aren’t allowed to trade more than one prospect at a time, making it harder for them to get in on bidding for players available in trades without giving up their most precious assets?
What’s the downside of sticking with the current system? People can complain all they want about how poorer owners should spend more or sell, but the gap is widening. Many fans already believe that the league is unfair. The Dodgers have won three of the last six World Series and keep adding the best players in the league. The worst case is that fan sentiment turns to the point that fans of smaller teams just lose interest. If fans of the Cleveland Guardians or Miami Marlins figure they have absolutely no shot, what’s to keep them interested?
I’ve felt this way at times this offseason. The Brewers, for example, could really have used Bichette, who is, what, like the 85th best player in the league? But at no point did I think it was remotely plausible that the Brewers would sign him, nor did I think it would’ve been the right move, given how it might’ve caused tough financial decisions down the line. He ended up with a contract worth $42 million a year, 75% more than the Brewers have ever paid a player in a single season.
The other thing that I feel has already started to happen is that MLB will evolve into what we already see in European soccer. Take, for example, the Premier League: there are extremely unpopular and convoluted rules in place about who can spend what — in the most basic sense, it’s ostensibly to prevent teams from spending more than they can afford, but it’s an inequitable system that heavily favors the teams who were already rich when the rules went into place. As a result, the same teams consistently dominate the top European leagues. In some cases, like in England, it’s a group of teams — the “Big Six,” as they’re called there. It’s even worse in the other, slightly less popular leagues — Bayern Munich has won the German Bundesliga in 13 of the last 14 years, and just this week set the league record for points at the halfway mark of the season. The last time a team other than Real Madrid, Barcelona, or Atlético Madrid won the Spanish league championship was in 2004.
While the playoff system will ensure that surprises happen in baseball, this isn’t where MLB is headed — it’s where they already are. The Dodgers might not win the league every year, but they will be right there every year, and the smaller-market teams that are left adrift — the Rockies, the Pirates, the Reds, etc. — will just fall further and further behind, only occasionally making leaps into relevancy, crossing their fingers that the chips fall their way just once. It’s where we are right now as Brewers fans.
Milwaukee has done an excellent job keeping pace thus far, but they cannot pull this off forever. The playing field needs to be leveled, at least a little bit, or the league risks losing huge portions of its fanbase. People like to feel like they have a fair shot.
Baseball has never exactly been a league that thrived on competitive balance; between 1936 and 1962, for example, the Yankees won 16 of 27 World Series, including separate stretches of four and five in a row. And one could argue that there’s nothing more quintessentially American than baseball, jazz music, and a rapidly widening wealth gap in which hyper-capitalists dominate those with fewer resources.
But the league and its players need to understand that the Dodgers being this far ahead of the field is not good for the game. I’m not saying there shouldn’t be a top dog — that can be good for the game in its own way — but in the last three years, the gap between the top of the league and the bottom of the league has grown from what was already a chasm into the Mariana Trench.
I certainly hope that we don’t miss any games in 2027, spring training or otherwise. I’m not optimistic. People at this level of wealth think that they should never have to settle for anything other than exactly what they want, and we live in an adversarial time. Missing games would be another huge mistake. The best thing is for everyone to admit that something needs to change and come up with reasonable, intelligent solutions that make fans of the poorer teams feel like they have a chance.
There are now 67 days remaining until Orioles Opening Day. 6 7 is a big meme with the kids, have you heard? If you have, that’s probably because the kids have moved on to something else now that the old people found out about it.
Things have popped off a lot over the last week or so of baseball free agency. The Orioles, as we are aware, have not had anything to do with any of that. A bit of it has shut down their options: Now they’re pretty much down to Framber Valdez or nothing else when it comes to the starting rotation.
That’s not literally true as several other starters remain unsigned, including Zac Gallen and Lucas Giolito. Or even the venerable Justin Verlander, linked vaguely to the Orioles in a recent report that I can’t bring myself to take seriously. The thing is that Valdez is the only guy with some kind of high-end potential and also a track record of durability.
I have thought all offseason that if the Orioles want to get serious about improving their rotation, they’re going to have to give out a big contract. What they’ve done instead is trade for Shane Baz and sign Zach Eflin. It might work. It has a better chance of working if they nail an addition for a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. This could still happen. There just aren’t as many options now as there were a few weeks ago.
Orioles stuff you might have missed
2026 ZiPS projections: Baltimore Orioles (FanGraphs) If you missed it on Friday, one of the big projection systems is out with its take on the Orioles. Some things are positive. Others less so.
Today in 2009, the Orioles acquired Félix Pie from the Cubs. He was popular around here even if he was never good, and that time he hit for the cycle was pretty fun.
There are a number of former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 2022-23 catcher Anthony Bemboom, 2006-08 infielder Brandon Fahey, 1993 pitcher Kevin McGehee, 1988-2001 outfielder Brady Anderson, 1976-88 pitcher Scott McGregor, 1962/67 infielder Mickey McGuire, and 1956-57 pitcher Mike Fornieles.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: philosopher Montesquieu (1689), antebellum figure Daniel Webster (1782), Winnie-the-Pooh creator A.A. Milne (1882), and actor Cary Grant (1904).
On this day in history…
In 1486, the warring York and Lancaster factions in England were united when the reigning King Henry VII married Elizabeth of York. Their united house became known as Tudor.
In 1778, British explorer James Cook’s expedition reached the Hawaiian islands, which he dubbed the Sandwich Islands at the time. Cook was the first European explorer known to have visited the islands.
In 1919, the peace conference meant to end the conflict we now know as World War I began in Versailles, France.
In 1993, Martin Luther King Jr. Day was observed in all 50 states for the first time.
A random Orioles trivia question
I received a book of Orioles trivia for Christmas. Each time I have this space, I’ll ask a question until I either run out of questions or forget. The book is multiple choice, but that would make it too easy for us. Today’s question:
Who was the starting pitcher in the one game of the 1983 World Series that the Orioles lost?
Imagine the Orioles winning a World Series! Nope, I can’t do it.
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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on January 18. Have a safe Sunday.
