MLB News
The St. Louis Cardinals will play host to the New York Mets at Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Florida for the Spring Training game on Thursday, March 12. According to MLB.com, Michael McGreevy will get the start for the Cardinals while Sean Manaea will take the mound for the Mets. The game is scheduled to be watchable on Cardinals.tv.
The Jays are playing the Phillies today. The game is free on MLB tv. I don’t see that it is on Sportsnet.
Lineups:
Trey Yesavage is a 22-year-old, right-handed pitcher. He was our first round draft pick (20th overall) in 2024. Trey got a $4,177,500 signing bonus (I’m trying to figure out how many beers I can get at the club at happy hour with 4.2 million, but let’s just say a lot. Of course, I would have to get chicken wings to go with them, so not as many. There is an old joke about a guy who spent all his money on booze and women, the rest he just wasted). He made a rapid rise through the minor leagues, and he was called up to the Jays in mid-September. He made three regular-season starts, two very good, one not good, and then he was thrown into the fire of a playoff run.
He’s still a rookie.
Trey made six playoff appearances, five starts, and one relief appearance, going 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA. In 27.2 innings, he allowed 18 hits, 11 walks, and had 39 strikeouts. Not every start was great, but most were. He had a bit of an edge because batters hadn’t seen his delivery (from the batter’s box) and his delivery is different than most pitchers. Tom M explained it:
Yesavage’s delivery comes over the top with a short arm action. His pitches come out 7.08 feet off the ground on average, which is higher than any pitcher in the majors this season (about 3⁄4 of an inch higher than leaders Pete Fairbanks or Justin Verlander and over 15 inches higher than the median). That creates a serious downhill plane to the plate, which is a little unfashionable right now because flatter angles pair better with the riding four seamers that are currently dominant. Because of how short his arm action is, as well as the tallness of his delivery, he also has below average extension that takes about two thirds of an mph off the perceived velocity of his pitches. There’s always value in giving hitters an uncommon look, though, and right now they don’t see a lot of balls that bear down on them in the way Yesavage’s do.
One positive thing the delivery does is allow him to get nearly pure backspin on his fastball, which he’s thrown 94 times among 198 pitches in his most recent three outings. The pitch generates an elite 19.9 inches of induced vertical break, which is about 4” more than the typical fastball thrown equally hard in the majors (he averages 94.7mph). It’s relatively straight, with 5.3 inches of arm side run, but with his kind of vertical movement that isn’t a problem. Overall the fastball profiles as a plus pitch that should be able to miss bats and generate pop ups up in the zone.
Baseball Savant says he averaged 94.7 mph and topped out at 96.9, and that 50% were in the strike zone. It tells me a lot about how baseball has changed in my lifetime that the 94.7 mph is just very slightly above league average.
He also throws a slider, averaging 88.7 mph and topping at 90.9. Savant says 2229 rpm, and 50% of those were in the strike zone. It moves 4 inches towards a right-handed batter, 4 inches, and it drops 29 inches (league average 4 inches and 35 inches).
And a split-finger change-up, averaging 84.1 mph, topping at 85.5, and 43% of them were in the strike zone. It moves 11 inches towards the RHB and drops 31 inches. League average is 11 and 34.
The release point on all the pitches is much the same. He gets more than average swing and miss (top of the league, in minimal innings) and a lot more ground balls (also top of the league) than the average pitcher.
He also gets more hard-hit balls against than most. And he walks more than most, but I’m expecting that, as he sees how much trouble hitters have hitting his pitches, he’ll walk fewer.
MLB Pipeline has Yesavage as the #12 prospect in the MLB
Yesavage is having a bit of a slow start to the spring. The team, very understandably, want to be careful with his arm. They would rather he be able to pitch near the end of the season (and hopefully playoffs) than pitch on opening day. He threw 35 pitches off a mound to some minor league hitters yesterday.
I do have some worries that his over the top delivery will not be as great over time. Roy Halladay, when he first came up, threw from over the top and he was great for his first in his first season but he was, I’m not sure the right way to put it, awful the next season. The team sent him back to A-ball, and re-jijjed his delivery. But Trey isn’t Doc
Steamer thinks he’s going to pitch in 37 games, 23 starts, 146 innings, with a 3.73 ERA, and a 2.2 fWAR. I’d bet strongly against him making 14 relief appearances, but I’ve been wrong before. I remember both times. We do have a lot of starting pitchers. One or two of them are going to be making relief appearances.
Has anyone else struggled to keep up with the spring training Yankees during the World Baseball Classic, or is it just me? There’s been some thrilling action across all four pools through Wednesday night, culminating in Italy, Canada, and the Dominican Republic’s pool-clinching victories yesterday, and allowing Mark DeRosa’s blunder to be forgiven as the U.S. also moved on with Mexico’s loss. With no WBC on today, of course, the Yankees aren’t televised. Boo.
Will Warren gets the start in Lakeland, his fourth of the spring. The 26-year-old has only allowed one earned run in 10.1 innings while reigning in his command and limiting damage. A new release point has pitching models loving his stuff, but he’s still struggling against lefties in a small sample. Detroit offers some good left-handed hitters, so it’ll be a good test for him as he looks to build up past 50 pitches.
An old foe is on the mound for Detroit today, as 43-year-old Justin Verlander has returned home to the Motor City to likely finish out a first-ballot Hall of Fame career. He rebounded in 2024 with San Francisco after a rough final year in Houston, making 29 starts with a 3.85 ERA (103 ERA+) and 3.85 FIP despite a continually declining strikeout rate. As much as he tortured the Yankees, especially in an Astros uniform, when he pitches against the Yankees this year, we’ll have to appreciate the final games of his storied career.
Ben Rice will lead off and play first base, followed by Jasson Domínguez, J.C. Escarra, and Paul DeJong. Spencer Jones is back in the lineup, batting fifth and playing center field, while George Lombard Jr. bats eighth at shortstop. Max Schuemann, Seth Brown, and Yanquiel Fernández round out the starting nin.
Kerry Carpenter leads off a Detroit lineup with a good amount of regulars that includes Matt Vierling, Colt Keith, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler, Zach McKinstry, and Javier Báez. Trei Cruz and John Peck wind out the lineup.
How to watch
Location: Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium — Lakeland, FL
First pitch: 1:05 pm ET
TV broadcast: N/A
Radio broadcast: WXYT 1270 (DET)
Online stream: N/A (Audio available via MLB.tv)
For updates, follow us on BlueSky, Twitter, and Instagram, and like us on Facebook.
SP: Sean Manaea
lineup to follow
First pitch: 1:05 PM EDT
TV: CARD (MLB.tv free game of the day)
Here are the lineups, let’s discuss!
For the Phillies:
For the Blue Jays:
Yes, thank Pedro. In a week when there has barely been any televised Red Sox baseball, this one is on NESN at 1:05 PM. That’s especially fortuitous since there’s no World Baseball Classic action today.
It’s all about Connelly Early today. With exactly two weeks until Opening Day, this will be one of his final chances to force himself into the Red Sox rotation.
With the World Baseball Classic beginning quarterfinal play on Friday, let’s look back to see how all the Dodgers did during pool play in the tournament. Five Dodgers on the 40-man roster played during the opening round, as well as two minor leaguers. In all, nine Dodgers were active in the WBC, representing seven countries.
Shohei Ohtani reached base nine times in 13 trips to the plate in Pool C, with two home runs, a double, four walks, six runs batted in, and four runs scored, and did not strike out, helping Japan to a 4-0 start to the tournament.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto walked more (three) than he struck out (two) on March 6 in Japan’s opening game against Chinese Taipei, but got through 2 2/3 innings without permitting a run, throwing 55 pitches.
Edwin Díaz faced seven batters in Pool A for Puerto Rico, and struck out five of them, tossing two scoreless innings with one hit allowed.
Will Smith started two of four games in pool play for the United States, and had a double and single in six at-bats, with two walks, and one RBI on a sacrifice fly.
Hyeseong Kim hit a two-run home run for Korea against Japan, but that was his only hit in 10 at-bats during Pool C. Kim drove in three, walked twice, and stole a base in his three games. He injured his left hand in stealing that base in the 10th inning on March 8 against Chinese Taipei, and did not play in Korea’s final game of the pool.
Clayton Kershaw warmed up late in Team USA’s loss to Italy, but did not pitch in Pool B.
Jake Gelof played all four games for Israel, starting three at third base. He had two hits, including a double, and three RBI in Tuesday night’s win over The Netherlands. But in the other three games he was hitless in a combined seven at-bats. Before leaving for the WBC, the second-round draft pick from 2023 got into two Cactus League games for the Dodgers, up from minor league camp, playing third base both times.
Christian Suarez, who pitched for Double-A Tulsa last year, got one out for Venezuela in his one appearance. Venezuela already has a berth in the quarterfinals, but first will play one more game against the Dominican Republic on Wednesday night to decide the winner of Pool D.
Shawndrick Oduber, who pitched in 29 games for Class-A Rancho Cucamonga last year as a 20-year-old, was in the pitching pool for The Netherlands, but did not pitch in their four games.
JUPITER, Fla. – Clay Holmes will forgo the remainder of the World Baseball Classic to prepare for the Mets’ season.
The right-hander was headed back to spring training Thursday, according to manager Carlos Mendoza, after conversations with Team USA officials determined he was unlikely to receive the innings buildup needed for his first start this season.
Team USA has advanced to the WBC quarterfinals against Canada on Friday.
Holmes pitched three scoreless innings for Team USA against Great Britain last week.
“It was hard for Team USA to guarantee him (innings) – especially where they are at, where every game is pretty much an elimination game,” Mendoza said before the Mets faced the Cardinals in the Grapefruit League. “It’s hard, especially as a piggyback, to guarantee the number of pitches we are asking him to get.
“It’s not an easy spot for managers now in the WBC. It’s easy to second guess and I have been in those tournaments and people have no idea how hard it is to please every organization, so Clay had a good talk with the coaching staff and they understand.”
Mendoza indicated the plan was “fluid” for Holmes when he departed for the WBC.
“They are facing an elimination game and the starter needs to go 60-65 pitches and we’re getting there, so they understood,” Mendoza said.
Holmes will pitch in a piggyback, behind Kodai Senga, on Friday, according to Mendoza.
Sticking with No. 26 worked out pretty well for Phillies great Chase Utley originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
CLEARWATER, Fla. – Every Little Leaguer in the Philadelphia area from 2005 to 2015 wanted the number.
Even today, a decade after it was informally retired, it remains popular in the stands back home at Citizens Bank Park and down here in spring training.
26.
For Phillies fans, the number is synonymous with Chase Utley.
The great former Phillies second baseman was back in Clearwater on Thursday as the team announced he would become its 51st Wall of Famer in an August 7 ceremony at Citizens Bank Park.
Dan Baker, no doubt, is already loosening up his vocal cords …
Number 26, Chase Utley!
But how different it might be if Utley had gotten his wish 20 years ago.
In high school and later at UCLA, he wore No. 7.
“It was always my lucky-ish number,” he said.
As a minor-leaguer attending big-league spring training camp, Utley first wore a football number – 78. When he graduated to the majors, he was assigned No. 26, which wasn’t a bad thing because he got to sit next to Jim Thome in the spring-training clubhouse.
Wearing 26 on his back, Utley became the Phillies’ regular second baseman in the second half of the 2004 season and began a rise to stardom in 2005.
But he still longed to wear his old favorite, No. 7.
After that season, Utley approached Frank Coppenbarger, the team’s longtime clubhouse and equipment man about possibly changing numbers.
“I’d begun to establish myself a little bit so I figured I’d ask,” Utley said.
Coppenbarger was OK with the switch and started to get the ball rolling. He ran it by the front office. The number was open so there were no major objections. The next step was alerting Majestic, then the uniform manufacturer for Major League Baseball.
That’s where there were objections.
“A couple of weeks later, Majestic got back to me,” the now-retired Coppenbarger recalled Thursday. “They were really concerned. They had several thousand ‘Utley 26’ jerseys in stores all over the region and they didn’t want to eat all those jerseys.”
Coppenbarger explained the situation to Utley.
“Oh, wow,” Utley said at the time. “Forget it. Let’s keep 26.”
Two decades later, Utley recalled that conversation on Thursday.
“From that day on, I felt like 26 was my number,” he said. “It worked out pretty good.”
Sure did.
In 13 seasons with the Phillies, Utley played in 1,551 games, made six National League All-Star teams and won four Silver Slugger awards. He was part of a homegrown core of players (along with Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Pat Burrell and others) that won five NL East titles, two NL pennants and a World Series from 2007 to 2011. He played in 46 postseason games for the Phillies and hit seven home runs, five in the 2009 World Series. He ranks in the franchise’s top 10 in a slew of categories, including runs, hits, RBIs, doubles, homers, total bases and extra bases.
You can add standing ovations to that list. Dubbed “The Man” by legendary broadcaster Harry Kalas, Utley was a huge fan favorite not only for his talent and production but also his heads-up, gritty style of play.
On the night the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, Utley made an instinctive defensive gem to cut down Tampa Bay’s Jason Bartlett at the plate. It ranks with Brandon Graham’s strip-sack of Tom Brady in Super Bowl LII as one of the most iconic defensive plays in Philadelphia sports history.
Phillies owner John Middleton praised Utley as “one of the greatest players in franchise history.” Middleton sees the Wall of Fame as a place to honor “Phillies history and its great players, great personnel and great moments.”
“When Chase’s plaque goes up on the Wall of Fame in August, he will deservedly live permanently and visibly forever in Phillies history,” Middleton said.
Utley is the third player from the 2008 World Series championship team to be honored on the Wall of Fame, joining Burrell and Rollins. Manager Charlie Manuel and general manager Pat Gillick have also been honored. In the coming years, more 2008 Phillies will surely be feted. Howard’s time will come soon. Hamels’, as well. Both were in Clearwater for the Utley announcement Thursday.
“For me, being able to hit behind Chase all those years and getting to see it first-hand, watching him work to do his thing day in and day out, was amazing,” Howard said. “Now, for him to be enshrined on the Wall of Fame, it’s awesome. It’s awesome to see a player and leader like that be recognized.
“As a player, you don’t set out for this type of stuff. It just happens when you do great things, and what Chase did was great. For me, answering these questions now — I’m standing here, but mentally, I’m in the on-deck circle watching his greatness. He’s a special player and a special individual.”
The Wall of Fame likely will not be the last great honor for Utley. In January, he received 59.1 percent (of a necessary 75 percent) of the vote in his third year on the Hall of Fame ballot. With seven years of eligibility remaining, he seems like a shoo-in. When that day comes, Phillies fans will flock to Cooperstown with No. 26 on their backs and the team will officially retire the number that no one has worn since him.
And to think, it could have been No. 7.
“I’m glad Chase didn’t change his number,” Frank Coppenbarger said. “Now, 26 is iconic. He’s 26 and he’ll be 26 forever.”
Texas Rangers lineup for March 12, 2026 against the Athletics of the West Coast.
Two weeks from Opening Day, and we have a spring training game this afternoon. It is against the Athletics. Jack Leiter is starting.
The lineup:
Nimmo — RF
Langford — LF
Seager — SS
Burger — 1B
Pederson — DH
Carter — CF
Smith — 2B
Duran — 3B
MacIver — C
3:05 p.m. Central start time.
There are only two weeks and a day left until the regular season starts and the prospective Atlanta Braves Opening Day roster is coming into focus — for better and for worse.
Less than two weeks after the last roster projection, two more shoes dropped, adding more consternation to Opening Day roster. First, it was outfielder/designated hitter Jurickson Profar getting suspended for 162 games for a second PED positive test in less than 12 months. Then, last weekend, possible starting pitcher/long-reliever Joey Wentz tore his ACL and will miss the 2026 season.
Now it is time to take another look what the projected Opening Day roster.
As a reminder, this projection is based on who is on the Braves’ 40-man roster or in camp with the team at this moment in time and assumes that everyone is “healthy” when Opening Day rolls around. All the usual caveats apply related to injuries, acquisitions and the like.
This is the third projection this Spring and for additional thoughts and details on the below players, read the prior projections as those comments won’t be duplicated below.
Catcher: Drake Baldwin
First base: Matt Olson
Second base: Ozzie Albies
Shortstop: Mauricio Dubón
Third base: Austin Riley
Right field: Ronald Acuña, Jr.
Center field: Micheal Harris II
Left field: Mike Yastrzemski
Designated hitter:
Bench: Jonah Heim, Eli White, Jorge Mateo, Kyle Farmer, Dominic Smith
With Jurickson Profar out of the equation, the designated hitter spot gets hits with a strike-through for this projection. Atlanta could possibly bring in someone at the end of camp for the last bench spot, but for now, veteran Dominic Smith gets the nod. The Braves would probably be better served with a right-handed hitting option, but at this point Smith and outfielder Ben Gamel, both veteran lefty-swinging bats, seem the two most likely options.
Wild Cards: Nacho Alvarez, Jr., Ben Gamel, Jose Azucar, Brett Wisely
Luke Williams has struggled mightily with the bat, and at this point, seems an unlikely option to make the team. It is fair to question if he is able to stick in Triple-A, either. Utilityman Brett Wisely, who played briefly with the Braves last season before an off-season detour to the Tampa Bay Rays before returning to Atlanta, could be an option given he can play on the infield or outfield.
Another name to keep an eye on is player who had the quick cup of coffee with Atlanta last season before moving on and coming back – outfielder Jose Azucar. Azucar is likely a Triple-A outfield option only but should the Braves need an reserve outfielder to open the season, he might get the nod over Gamel. Infielder Nacho Alvarez, Jr. has been playing in the WBC and was optioned when he left camp, but he can’t be ruled out completely, although is likely to be ticketed to Triple-A to get full-time at-bats.
Starting pitchers: Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, JR Ritchie
Bullpen: Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, Dylan Lee, Tyler Kinley, Aaron Bummer, Joel Payamps, Jose Suaréz
The starting rotation has lost most of its depth since Spring Training started with Hurston Waldrop, Joey Wentz and Spencer Schwellenbach all succumbing to injuries. JR Ritchie makes the jump to the starting rotation – even if only for the first two weeks. Theoretically, Atlanta could opt to give Ritchie a start after Strider or Lopez, allowing Holmes to be the designated long-man for a couple of games and slot in as the sixth starter.
With Hayden Harris and James Karinchak seeming to not be in the plan to start the year, the final slot goes to left-hander Jose Suaréz given his ability to cover multiple innings. He pitched in seven games, including one start, for the Braves last season.
Wild Cards: Martín Peréz, Hayden Harris, Dylan Dodd, James Karinchak
A lot can happen in two weeks, and a couple more clean outings by Harris or even a minor injury to an expected reliever could see the rookie force his way on the roster. The same can be said for Karinchak. Should Atlanta opt to have a sixth start, but not want Ritchie to start the year in Atlanta, then the veteran Martín Peréz could get the call. Dodd’s ability to be optioned does not play in his favor, but he could be an option over Suaréz.
The majority of the core that won the 2023 World Series is still present on the Rangers roster three years later. The unrelenting passage of time and the fragile nature of the human body has meant that, even though many of the names are the same, the talent level on this roster is much less than what it was when they won a championship. Maybe that’s why it feels like this year is the last hurrah for this version of the Rangers. Corey Seager hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season since 2022, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are on the wrong side of 35, and it doesn’t look like there’s much near-future help coming through the farm system.
The pitching staff should be pretty good; they were elite last year but probably won’t rise to that level again. The lineup should be pretty good too, even though they weren’t very good last year. The roster seems like it’s going to get hit hard by regression — upwards for the bats, downwards for the arms — which makes projecting the team particularly difficult.
| Position | Rangers Projected WAR | Mariners Projected WAR | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catcher | 2.5 | 6.1 | Mariners |
| First Base | 1.3 | 2.9 | Mariners |
| Second Base | 1.6 | 2.7 | Mariners |
| Shortstop | 4.5 | 2.8 | Rangers |
| Third Base | 2.0 | 3.0 | Mariners |
| Left Field | 3.4 | 2.2 | Rangers |
| Center Field | 3.4 | 6.0 | Mariners |
| Right Field | 2.4 | 2.0 | Rangers |
| Designated Hitter | 1.8 | 1.6 | Rangers |
| Starting Pitching | 14.6 | 14.2 | Rangers |
| Relief Pitching | 1.9 | 3.4 | Mariners |
| Total | 39.5 | 46.8 | Mariners |
The Rangers outpace the Mariners at shortstop, in the outfield corners, and barely edge them out in the starting rotation. The biggest potential for growth comes from their two young outfielders, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. The former is already projected to be one of the better left fielders in the game while the latter has battled injuries the last few years but is still only 23. On the pitching side of things, deGrom, Eovaldi, and newcomer MacKenzie Gore form a very potent one through three atop the rotation. Even if the pitching depth isn’t as good as it was last year, the ceiling provided by that trio is very high.
Bringing in Brandon Nimmo and Gore should help delay the team’s inevitable decline; both are still very good players right now and are under team control for at least the next two years. It’s very easy to imagine a scenario in 2026 where Seager stays healthy, the two aces atop the rotation stave off Father Time for one more year, and young guys like Langford and Carter take a big step forward. It’s just as easy to imagine the complete opposite scenario where everything falls apart. That huge variation in potential outcomes makes this team extremely difficult to pin down. They could be really good! They could be really bad! The most likely outcome is somewhere in the mediocre middle, neither good enough to compete nor bad enough to push them to tear everything down.
2026 FanGraphs Depth Charts projections: 80.7-81.3, 2nd in AL West, 35.5% playoff odds
2026 PECOTA projections: 83.6-78.4, 3rd in AL West, 43.2% playoff odds
Sure, it’s a flattened and idealized version of history, but who doesn’t love a lone cowboy? One man set against the multifaceted forces of the world, his only weapon a six-shooter and his own rugged indifference. It’s the man in the arena, but on a horse. That’s how Skip wanted them to think of themselves, at least. One man. Simple tools. One mission.
Of course, it’s not really like that. They are nothing without each other, and this year, finally, all those disparate pieces gelled into one unstoppable offensive machine. A new training program kept the most fragile among them on the field all year, led by Corey Seager, fully healthy and now fully a power hitter – so what if his defense had lost a step when he’s smacking 36 homers? And for once not everything rested on Seager’s shoulders, flanked by a trio of powerful young All-Stars in Evan Carter, Wyatt Langford, and Josh Jung, who finally solved his own injury issues, with Carter’s long-awaited breakout year finally coming to fruition.
With that combination of speed, power, and on-base ability at the top half, the rest of the lineup could have taken at-bats off, but they never did, led by the veteran Brandon Nimmo, who fit in immediately like a pair of broken-in boots. Any time a younger player wandered too far afield Nimmo was right there to lasso him back to reality, offering pep talks and gentle correction. The top of the lineup did most of the heavy lifting, of course, but the rest of the lineup was happy to play Tonto to everyone else’s Lone Ranger.
Could they pitch? Not even a little bit, but who cares, when you’re averaging – averaging – five runs a game. Forget about defense; the most powerful guns win the wars.
They lived the motto that year – one riot, one Ranger – acting as a unified, unstoppable force, a riot of offense and damn all the rest. Who cared about a statue, or a Pride Night, or paid maternity leave? They had two pennants in five years. Anyone would be happy to ride off into the sunset with that. —KP
This is an easy one.
About one-third of the Rangers projected value is tied up in three players: Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. All three are great, and all three will be on a Hall of Fame ballot some day. All three are also highly likely to spend time on the injured list this year. Seager (32) made three trips to the IL in 2025; he missed time in six of the last seven non-COVID seasons. deGrom (38) was healthy last year for the first time since missing most of four consecutive seasons. Eovaldi (36) has his own poor track record of health and finished 2025 on the IL.
So while I acknowledge the tradition of this series is creative writing and imagery, this just… it’s obvious. The Rangers need everything to go right. They are old. They are fragile. They are top heavy. It’s like watching Nolan Ryan attempt the milk crate challenge.
The Rangers are already on the long-arch towards, “It All Goes Wrong.” Between 2022 and 2023, they had the largest influx of high-priced talent in recent baseball history, elevating from one of the worst teams in the league to a bit above average. And hey, that’s all they needed in 2023, winning 90 games, finishing second in the AL West, and defeating the mighty Diamondbacks in the World Series. Good for them.
But such an improbable title run obscured a more fundamental issue with the depth of the organization. There was no plan in place to sustain highly competitive rosters. They’d already locked up the “Big Free Agent” chunk of their budget. They didn’t have much of a farm system to supplement their core, or even to trade from. They were largely content to stare at the reflection in their trophy.
They entered 2024 needing it all to go right. They were the most injured team in the American League and missed the playoffs.
They entered 2025 needing it all to go right. They underperformed their pythagorean record by nine wins and missed the playoffs.
And now the Rangers enter 2026, needing it all to go right again, the odds growing longer. Their championship core has started to break up, with plenty of hard feelings to go around. The rest is filled out with not-quite-failed prospects and not-quite-retired veterans. The greatest splurge in the history of the sport, all for a lone winning season, and a Texas-sized white flag to hang in the rafters, forever. —RB
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
Spring Training is rapidly drawing to a close, and while the Royals have a variety of much more interesting options for their outfield than they had at this time last year, they don’t appear to have any clear frontrunners.
Lane Thomas was the first offseason addition, but he profiles as more of a weak-side platoon hitter and pinch hitter than a starting outfielder. Additionally, he was hurt most of last year, and he has not had a particularly good Spring Training, striking out in more than half of his plate appearances so far.
Isaac Collins was acquired next, via trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, and immediately assumed the de facto starting left field role after finishing fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting last year. Unfortunately, his batted ball metrics were subpar last year, which already gave cause for concern about his ability to replicate his rookie season, but now he has gotten a late start to Spring Training and has struck out more than 40% of the time since he started playing. Neither he nor Thomas are chasing all that much, but they’re both only swinging at about half the pitches they see in the strike zone, far below the league average.
The Royals signed Starling Marte to fill out the bench last week, but he might be the most interesting option they have in left field, considering we at least haven’t seen him fail yet. But there’s a little more than a week of Spring Training left, and we haven’t seen him take the field yet. It’s hard to imagine he’s going to be 100% up to speed when the season starts at this pace.
Michael Massey could be an option, but he’s battling another leg injury. Jonathan India is only playing at second this year. Other potential candidates would seem to include Kameron Misner, John Rave, Drew Waters, Tyler Tolbert, and Nick Loftin. Who you got?
Batting Average on Balls in Play is a stat that’s about as objective mathematically as can be. The fine folks at FanGraphs provide this concise explanation of the metric.
The basics are this: when a batter puts a bat on the ball and it ends up in the field of play, how often does said batter not get retired? Home runs go over the fence and therefore aren’t ‘in the field of play,’ while sacrifices are pulled out the equation due to the batter giving themselves up for the good of the team. What you’re left with at the end, mathematically, is a data set of millions of plate appearances that ended up with batters putting pitches into play, with roughly 30% of those ending up as hits.
If a player posts a season with a .351 BABIP – like, for example, Gavin Lux did in 2025 – odds are there was some good luck, or good fortune propping that up. If a player posts a season with a .255 BABIP – like one of the players I’ll mention immediately below – odds are there was some bad luck, or bad fortune at play.
There’s some obvious noise in there, though, as not all batted balls are created the same. Fly balls (that don’t go over the wall) are a lot easier to turn into outs than line drives and even grounders, so players who show extreme fly-ball heavy approaches will typically have lower BABIP numbers than those who don’t. Speedy guys that race down the 1B line can more easily leg out infield hits than lumbering sluggers, so you don’t see a lot of catchers with high BABIP numbers, for instance.
All of this, of course, is relative to pitchers, too. Extreme fly-ball pitchers might surrender more homers, but they typically have lower BABIP against them than their grounder brethren. Inducing weak contact from hitters typically leads to a lower BABIP against, too, all factors that help determine whether a pitcher’s expected BABIP based on their pitching profile should actually be closer to .290 or .310 than just .300.
Anyway, here are a handful of Cincinnati Reds who – based on BABIP and their respective approaches – should probably be due for some better fortune in 2026 than they were last season.
2025 BABIP: .255
Career BABIP prior to 2025: .331
I have hammered this point home about Benson already this offseason, so I will try not to belabor it while highlighting some of his peers who likely will see better luck in 2026, too.
To summarize, Benson hit just .226/.273/.435 in 2025 with a .255 BABIP despite his batting percentile rankings (had he had enough PA to qualify) all landing in the top 15% of all hitters in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and launch angle sweet-spot percentage. He’s not an extreme fly-ball hitter, either, and he refined his approach well in 2025 to swing at better pitches in-zone (and make a lot better contact when he did).
He’s fast, too – 94th percentile last year, per Statcast. Guys that fast should never end up with just a .255 BABIP.
I think Benson’s in for a big, big regression in 2026 in a good way. He just needs the playing time.
2025 BABIP: .342
Career BABIP prior to 2025: .305
Ashcraft leans on his 97+ mph cutter out of the bullpen, a completely filthy pitch that both limits hard contact and induces a ton of grounders. Yes, ground-ball heavy pitchers typically have higher BABIP allowed than fly-ball pitchers, but the weak contact nuance with Ashcraft should mitigate a lot of that. For instance, he allowed just a 24.6% hard-hit % (per FanGraphs) last year – tied for the 10th best among the 287 pitchers who threw at least 60 IP – while his 55.9% grounder rate was tied for 17th on that same list.
Nobody ranked higher than him in either category allowed a BABIP anywhere close to his. Eight of the pitchers who ranked ahead of him on that hard-hit list posted BABIP numbers of .275 or below.
His xERA (3.46) and FIP (2.72) think Graham got royally screwed last year, as they were both significantly better than his 3.99 ERA. I think 2026 is a year where those all begin to tell the same story, and the Reds are going to be better off because of it.
2025 BABIP: .289 (.270 with Reds after being acquired)
Career BABIP prior to 2025: .312
Look, there’s not really going to be anything about Hayes’ offensive profile that jumps off the page. He’s just not a very good hitter, and of late has been one of the worst in the entire sport. There’s a lot of small sample noise in Hayes’ initial foray into playing for the Cincinnati Reds, but even his entire body of work between the Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates last season suggests he was a bit unluckier than he should of been.
Perhaps the biggest question right now is just how much his back issues have haunted him, and how much they’ll continue to do so. As recently as 2023, he ranked in the 85th percentile in hard-hit rate and 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, but last year those nose-dived to the 46th percentile and 39th percentile, respectively. He ranked in just the 13th percentile in barrel rate and 9th in xSLG, meaning he really, really wasn’t making very good contact at all.
Still, there’s evidence that he’s been able to hit the ball decently hard before, and last year his 49.0% grounder rate ranked 11th highest in the sport among qualified hitters. With a healthy-enough back and an average sprint speed that’s close enough to league average, I’d expect his BABIP to shoot back up above .300 again in 2026.
2025 BABIP: .360
Burns allowed a .316 BABIP during his electric season with Wake Forest in 2024 before being the #2 overall draft pick. When he debuted as a pro in 2025, he posted a .258 BABIP in 42.0 IP with AA Chattanooga and a .244 BABIP in 66.0 IP in the minors across all stops before his call-up to the big leagues.
Without getting too numbers-heavy on a pitcher with such a small sample of results, I’ll simply point out that a) nobody with his filthy arsenal of pitches is going to post a .360 BABIP allowed again and b) that one disastrous start against Boston last year where he was tipping pitches featured a .667 BABIP against him in-game.
Chase Burns stock to the moon!