Category: MLB

It’s not remotely the right time to start talking about offseason movement, but there is movement afoot. Two of Craig Breslow’s assistant GMs, Mike Groopman and Taylor Smith, have already conducted preliminary interviews for the big chair in Sacramento after the A’s fired Dave Forst back in August. (Sean McAdam, MassLive)

Here in Boston, though, we’re unlikely to see a search for a new boss in a while. Craig Breslow earned himself quite a bit of rope this season, thanks to a decisive move that paid off big time in firing Alex Cora. “I believed in the players that we had, and I felt it was really important that we acted definitively and decisively when we did, so that we could create an environment around the players that was supportive, that would allow them to thrive, and they responded,” he said. “And, while there may have been some people that questioned what this group was capable of, I think they answered.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

And here’ s a look at some of the key moments of the season that got this team where it is today. Remember the ninth inning comeback against the Mets that came after that long-delayed flight? How about Caleb Durbin’s home run off Cam Schlittler? (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

But, strangely enough, when it came time to clinch the playoffs, it wasn’t a Red Sox player who did the dirty work, though it was a Red Sox legacy player. “And the man with the game-winning three-run homer that would, in the end, send both the Braves and the Red Sox to the postseason? Well, baseball is quite sentimental, and it also has a sense of humor, so, obviously, it was Mike Yastrzemski.“ (Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru, MLB.com)

But the fact that the Sox clinched on a loss didn’t dampen the celebration. “There was a lot of beer!” said Payton Tolle. “It was a slobberknocker.” (Rob Bradford, WEEI)

But before the slobberknocker could get slobbin’, Chad Tracy addressed his team to sum up the season that was. “I want to express gratitude for everyone in the room,” he said. “I’m so grateful for you guys, for our staff, for everybody. You stared impossible in the face. The position we were in, you beat it back and said, ‘The hell with that, we’re going to the playoffs.’ And you did.” (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)

So the Sox are in the dance. But for how long? That’s anyone’s guess, but Red Sox fans are apparently more optimistic than the fans of any other American league team. (Stephen J. Nesbitt, The Athletic)

Paul Skenes believes he has the answer to his velocity dip this season.

The Pirates star has not shown his usual prowess this season, and part of it, he thinks, is due to his participation in the World Baseball Classic in March, as he told Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

“There are a lot of other factors, so I don’t want to put everything on that,” Skenes explained. “But I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit. It definitely affected the year. Unfortunately, I don’t think I’m the only one.”

Skenes pitched a total of 8 ⅓ innings in two tournament starts for Team USA in the WBC, allowing one earned run.

Skenes continued and clarified that the drop in velocity was intentional at first, but over the course of the season he was unable to ramp up to his usual level.

“Usually, that time of year, you’re kind of ramping up and it’s a little bit slow,” Skenes said. “You can kind of get onto the slope and find your body. One live [batting practice], you’re topping at 97 [mph], and then the next you’re 98, 99. And that wasn’t the case this year…looking back I don’t think that really helped.”

Skenes hasn’t been dreadful this season, posting a 3.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 192 strikeouts in 168 innings, but it’s not what Pittsburgh and baseball fans have come to expect from the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year and 2025 NL Cy Young winner.

The lack of a 2027 WBC should help Skenes go through his normal offseason and ramping-up period, which the Pirates will need next season if they want to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

This week, Gabe and I were joined by the beat writer for the Belleville News-Democrat, Jeff Jones! You can also find his extended written thoughts at Words About Birds for a very cost-effective price. Now that the Cardinals’ playoff hopes are mathematically exhausted, we start to turn the majority of our focus to the offseason and what might lie ahead. Topics ranging from big picture to player-focused and everything in between were covered this week, plus Jeff unearthed some little-known tidbits that you’re not going to want to miss!

00:00 Introduction to Viva Elberto’s Podcast
00:12 Meet the Hosts: Jake, Gabe, and Scott
00:23 Introduction to the Season’s End
02:29 Assessing the Cardinals’ Season
08:14 Offseason Strategies and Market Dynamics
11:39 Third Base Dilemma and Internal Options
13:01 Identifying Key Roster Questions
17:03 Catching Situation and Future Prospects
21:14 Masyn Winn’s Long-Term Future
23:19 Evaluating Player Extensions and Future Prospects
26:06 Assessing Bullpen Dynamics and Player Retention
30:27 Exploring the Future of Young Talent
33:10 Analyzing the Impact of Injuries on Player Performance
36:56 Memorable Moments of the Season
38:43 Social Media and Player Perception
40:45 Where to Find More Insights and Coverage

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Transcript:

Jake Wood (00:23)
Welcome to the Viva El Birdos Podcast. My name is Jake Wood and I write for VivaElBirdos.com. I am the host of the show and I am joined by fellow writer Gabe Simonds. Please be sure to like and subscribe to our channel. We are available on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all of your favorite audio streaming platforms. Tonight’s guest has one of the premier seats in the Cardinals vehicle, being one of the few remaining beat reporters that cover the team. He writes for the Belleville News Democrat and you can read his additional coverage at WordsAbout Birds. Please welcome back Jeff Jones.

Jeff Jones (01:14)
Hi guys, how we doin’?

Jake Wood (01:17)
Hi Jeff, thanks for hopping on with us again tonight. You know, the Cardinals closed out their final home stand of the season today, and you know you only have one series left of coverage in Milwaukee, so you let us know before the big black cloud of the offseason descends on the topic of St. Louis baseball.

Jeff Jones (01:35)
Yeah, you know, as we as we we filed out of the clubhouse today, there’s there’s a lobby there that you have to pass through to head into there, and there’s a mark and whiteboard kind of on the wall up there where where the the gentleman who works security in there, you know, is the date, the you know, the game times, all that stuff, and he’ll use like a fun fact of the day or whatever. So, and it’s, you know, next game, next time, all that stuff. So when we walked out of there today, he had changed around the board, and you know, next date, April first or dot dot dot, right? So sort

Jake Wood (02:01)
Yeah.

Jeff Jones (02:01)
Of Sort of an ominous way to walk out of the ballpark this afternoon. Yeah.

Jake Wood (02:06)
Absolutely. You know, I wanna start here. We came into the season with question mark on top of question mark at various spots across the roster. And I think for the first time in maybe three to four years, we’re walking out of the season with more questions answered than questions that persist. You know, how much clarity did the Cardinals gain from this twenty twenty-six season in your estimation?

Jeff Jones (02:29)
Yeah,

I mean this is this was a topic of conversation several times this weekend, right? Just by the nature of being the last homestand and the last time. A lot of folks, I think pretty much everybody except for Derek and Brendan and me, are probably gonna be around Oli at least until the offseason. and and you know, there was a lot of discussion about, is this a successful season? What were the positives? What did you get out of this season? And the thing that Oli Marmol was really consistent and really insistent about was that they feel like they got a lot of answers.

They, you know, not all the answers are yes on all of the guys, right? But they feel like they definitely kind of know what spot they’re in heading into the offseason. I think that, you know, push comes to shove, they would tell you that they know who are who’s starting at eight of the nine positions on opening day next season, right now. I think they would be probably pretty comfortable with that assessment. And that’s not nothing. You know, those are not always going to be all of the right answers. They’re not going to get 100% on all these tests, right? But they feel like they have answers for most of what they needed to know this year.

Gabe (03:26)
One of those things that I guess the Cardinals appear to think they have answered is Nathan Church at center field. And my question to you is, what are they seeing that he will improve upon or get better at? Or I’m assuming they don’t think how he played this year is like his potential because he wasn’t that good, honestly. But did they like, inform you in some way of, like, this is what we see Nathan Church at the future, cause he didn’t really have the top prospect pedigree or the stats really to back up being as confident as they appear to be in him for the center field of the future?

Jeff Jones (04:01)
You know, and so I agree. He definitely didn’t. And that to me has always kind of been an interesting part of the way that we talk about Nathan Church, right? He and Victor Scott are really pretty much the same age. Church is a couple of months older. There’s not much of a gap between them. And you’re right, the church definitely didn’t have the prospect pedigree at all. You know, a guy who climbed from Peoria to the big leagues last year, sort of flown under the radar in a lot of ways, right? But I posed this question hypothetically to a couple of people this weekend, and it kind of interests me. If you took Nathan Church’s exact stat line from this year, that took froze it, took his

Gabe (04:38)
Yeah.

Jeff Jones (04:39)
Name off and put Victor Scott’s name on it; I wonder what the reaction people would have to that season. Right? If they would say that’s not going to be good enough, or if they would say, this is a guy who took a step, and maybe there is development there.

And I don’t- I know that there are differences there, right? Obviously the power profile is different. If you saw a stat line for Vic that’s at 10 home runs and 50 RBI, you’d go, what happened there? Why didn’t he steal any bases? You know, so there are things that don’t quite fit. But I think the big thing with Church is at the end of this year, he is he’s gonna be a two-win player, which is not, you know, it’s not nothing. It is at least some measure of, you know, a guy who can contribute. I do think that saying that they are sure that Nathan Church is gonna is goes into the winner as their center fielder for next year is not the same thing as them saying Nathan Church is the guy who is a center fielder on a championship team. Right. I think that there is a distinction between those two. And I think, you know, if you could get the absolute truth out of the folks who make the decisions, they would tell you that probably a contending team has Nathan Church as its fourth outfielder. I think that is a reasonable way to look at it. But that next year’s team given what they have, what they know is coming, what they know the market looks like, they’re willing to commit to that now because they have a pretty good idea of what might be outside and that they’re not gonna go get it.

Gabe (05:58)
I will say Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, I think, have a big disagreement over his defense, I guess. Because that was where I was coming from with

Jeff Jones (06:02)
They do. Yeah, they definitely do. Well, and yeah.

Gabe (06:07)
the fangraphs version. I didn’t even know he had two war by baseball reference, honestly.

Jeff Jones (06:11)
Yeah, and and and and so part of that is a little bit of what we talked about with where they can see improvements in him, right? Like the arm is average to below average, but it’s a center field arm, so it’s probably kind of in the meat of the curve of s what of what center field arms look like. And there was a lot of discussion this weekend about basically the things that they feel like they can get church to improve upon are coachable. Right? It’s a lot of things like focus, game awareness, pitch-to-pitch consistency.

All stuff that, like, they did that they don’t feel like he lacks skill for, just that they can coach into him. Right. There was an example that that that that Marvel gave this weekend, and he was talking about the Giants series earlier this week where Church had to play the late-night game and then come right back and play the 1215 first-pitch day game. And his explanation was that he intentionally did that because he wanted to see how Church reacted to the day game. He said he even pulled him aside before the day game and said, This is this is where you show it.

Right, like all this pre-pitch stuff, all the focus stuff that they’ve been working on. He said, Hey, day game after night game, it’s a thousand degrees, go do it. Right. And it probably wasn’t perfect, and it’s not gonna be perfect, but that’s the kind of stuff where they that’s where they see him being less successful than he can be, and they think it’s coachable rather than being just the thing that he won’t ever be able to do.

Jake Wood (07:28)
Obviously, you know, you touched on it there a little bit. The end-of-season press conference has yet to take place, but you know, I’d be curious to know just how Chaim Bloom intends to attack this offseason. Obviously, with the Cardinals being eliminated from postseason contention, a lot of our focus now shifts kind of to what the offseason is going to start looking like. You know, I’d be curious to know, and this’ll be more speculation on your part than anything, and I apologize for that, but you know, do you think he will try to jump the market and act quickly before an industry shutdown, or would he rather sit back and let whatever market kind of occurs develop and be patient and strike where they can extract maybe some unheralded value? You know, kinda how do you see potentially Heim Bloom attacking this off-season as it unfolds?

Jeff Jones (08:14)
So, I act- I mean it it probably is cheating to say both, but I do think the answer is both, right? And I you know, an example of this, the one that I’ve that I’ve been thinking about a lot lately, is the deal that the Cardinals signed Stephen Matz to ahead of the lockout, going from twenty-one into twenty-two, was really pretty reasonable. Like, you knew that there was gonna be some injury risk with Matz, but when he was healthy, he pitched well; you got a reasonable trade return for him. It was four and forty-four, four and forty-eight, something of that nature. Like nothing, nothing really crazy, you know, a below-qualifying offer amount. It’s four years, but a below-qualifying offer amount. And that was in large part because Matz wanted to know where he was going out of the stoppage. He wanted to have security. You know, obviously his injury history put him in a spot where he felt like a multi-year deal was something he wanted, all of that. But which was just to say that the Cardinals, in that case, leveraged that deadline as an ability to maybe drive the AAV down on a guy. Now, the flip side of that, and another one I’ve been thinking about in this context, is I think this probably affects the option decision on Ryan Stanek, right? Because if you assume it’s a $5 million call, it’s a $6 million option or a $1 million buyout. So you’re talking about a $5 million call here. Is it likely that coming out of a stoppage, there’s going to be a whole bunch of one-year relievers who, two weeks before camp starts, are going to be willing to take three and a half or four rather than five? And are those guys going to be 85, 90, 100% as good as Ryan Stanek was this year? I think you could make an argument for that. So I think it probably affects the way that they look at that option and the way that they would attack that market, you know, after a stoppage, because those are going to be the guys. And this is what we’ve talked about, you know, all the economics around this. Whatever happens, it’s gonna be a squeeze on that middle class of player, right? And that’s veteran relievers who sign one-year deals. and I would I would anticipate that that market is going to be a little more- panic is the wrong word, but that market is gonna be easier for a front office to pressure after a stoppage than before it.

Jake Wood (10:14)
Frenetic, maybe? As a word. I don’t-

Jeff Jones (10:17)
Yeah, no, I just, I like it’s not I don’t know, it’s not gonna be thirty guys who are gonna take one and a half to just get into camp anywhere, but it but there are definitely gonna be guys who are gonna be available because I would imagine teams throughout the league are gonna look at it in the same way. Hey, get on the other side of the stoppage. Number one, in that case, you know, you know what the economic system is, right? Because what is sort of the most fungible, replaceable thing on any roster? It’s like the three, four, five guys in the bullpen. You have some system guys you can make, or right, all that stuff.

So there’s really every incentive for that market I to for me at least, there’s every incentive for that market to hold until number one, there is certainty as to what the economic system looks like. And number two, it’s gonna be a shorter window. You know, the reason teams are talking about having a trade, you know, a transaction freeze window is that it pressures guys to take less money ’cause they wanna get a deal done. And that’s gonna be a version of that coming out of the stoppage.

Gabe (11:09)
So speaking of the one position that they don’t have figured out going into next year, third base, do you get an indication that they’re gonna go internal? Cause I don’t think Saggese and Blaze Jordan is that bad of a plan because they’re both unproven; both showed signs that they might do something. Not to mention Jesus Baez and, to some extent, Deniel Ortiz are possibly gonna be a factor in the second half. So do you get any indication if they’re gonna try to sign a free agent or maybe make a trade?

Or are they just gonna stick with their internal options?

Jeff Jones (11:39)
Yeah, so I mean a trade is a possibility, I suppose, if there is. I don’t really know what that piece I act, you know; there are a couple of guys occasionally, like I’ll sort of click around to think about. Like one that makes sense to me, weirdly enough, is Matt Shaw. I mean, that obviously is never gonna happen. There are guys like that right around that that make some sense. But no, I I I think that that is a spot where they would probably look to supplement a veteran free agent. Think of it as a lefty version of Urius, right? Or a combination of him and Gorman as a left-hander, you know, some of a more bench-oriented bit of a guy that you can play at third twice a week or whatever. I I think that I think that Blaze Jordan is probably gonna have every opportunity to win that job in spring. I think that they are gonna be open to seeing what the market looks like. You know, is that a spot where there’s a short-term free agent? Sure, possibly. I do get the sense that with at least Jesus Baez, they are probably going to want him to get some Triple-A time. That’s not going to say that he isn’t going to be in the big leagues at some point next year. You know, I’ve been joking all weekend that, like, I half expect him to lead Lidom in innings at third base. Yeah, I mean, like, he’s going to get a lot of reps at third base this winter for sure. But I, you know, I don’t think that he is probably, as of today, a really strong candidate for, like, the opening day roster in twenty-seven, right? but but yeah, for sure could be a part of that later in the year.

Jake Wood (13:01)
You

know, kind of touching on that topic, what are areas of the big league roster that you think still kind of remain big question marks heading into this? You know, for me, third base was one I think that a number one starter is probably somewhere the Cardinals might would would maybe want to look to add. You know, you look at they have a lot of depth in the rotation, a lot of guys who fill out a rotation, but maybe not somebody who fronts that and then maybe another high leverage reliever to kind of pair with Riley O’Brien to help kind of alleviate some of the tall asks that he’s had of him this season.

I think that what we’re seeing a lot of I know Oli will probably never admit to it- but I think a lot of what we’re seeing with Riley O’Brien, at least down the stretch, is a lot of burnout, ’cause he has been utilized a lot this season and a lot of tight, close games with very thin margins. And so, you know, are those probably the three main areas you think that are still kind of in flux for this team going into the next season?

Jeff Jones (13:58)
Yeah, what I would say is it’s sort of in reverse order. I don’t think that they would probably look to add outside for leverage, like for a true, like closer-esque level leverage reliever, right? I think that you would see a Stanek type, if not Stanek himself into that Yeah, into that, you know.

Jake Wood (14:12)
That’s kind of where I was, yeah, somebody who can help alleviate some of the need on Riley, say if he’s gone three days in a row, somebody you feel comfortable throwing in, something like that, yes.

Jeff Jones (14:20)
Kittridge, Maton, Stanek, that guy. Yeah, that’s always that guy, right? I do think that they view internally if if Riley were to start badly, be hurt, whatever, next year, I think that they are intrigued definitely by what Gastelum would do in that spot. And I think that the success that Graceffo has had with kind of reshaping the breaking ball the second half of the season has their attention. I I I do not think they’re at all interested in putting Graceffo back into a starting spot. Like, I don’t expect to hear that he’s gonna stretch out this winter. I think that they are really happy with the development that he’s done and that he has right now. And I think that they view him more as this is maybe, the guy if O’Brien gets swapped out next year rather than, hey, is this Kyle Leahy? I I I think I think it’s I think it’s more that bullpen orientation.

You know, in terms of the other spots in the roster, yeah, there there will definitely be a need for some version of, you know, some some some version of innings really from the bullpen. Now that is gonna get you to an interesting question about Matthew Libertore that I don’t know the answer to yet, and that I’m not entirely sure that they 100% know the answer to yet. There certainly are people who think What else can they need to see? I I I hear the argument. I don’t know that they are necessarily there yet in determining that with Libertore, but I do think if you start counting up starting spots for next season, you would definitely say, you know, McGreevy, Leahy, Mathews- that’s for sure three. Now you’re talking about if Pallante is on their roster next year, he’s for sure four. I can see an argument, can see a s a situation where maybe Pallante becomes popular on the trade market this winter. But I also thought that the deadline, and it didn’t really happen. So I, you know, I could be misreading that situation. But if Pallante is around, that’s definitely four. And that is before you add anyone from outside.

That is before you say Richard Fitts, that is before you say Cooper Hjerpe, that is before you say, you know, Mason Molina in the second part of this. There’s a lot of guys who can fill up some of those internal spots before you even need to talk about Matthew Libertore. And so I do wonder if, if nothing else, the combination of, you know, places he’s had success versus places he’s not, and what the structure of their roster looks like. I think I wonder if those two things together can inform some of that choice. And then the next, and then the next to me decision becomes is the value they think they can get from him as a reliever greater than what the trade value is? Because if there are say three, four, five other teams who still think they can make the starter thing happen, then he probably has more value in trade than he does even as a really good reliever. I don’t know if they would come to that same conclusion, but that is the way I have sort of thought about it.

Gabe (17:03)
So it seems clear, and you might not know more information than we do, but it seems clear Bernal is the plan at starting catcher next year. What do they do with the rest of the starting catchers? trades move to positions, like like what what do you what do you see the future is for Herrera, who I kind of feel like is done a catcher, but maybe I’m wrong. Crooks, Pages, and then obviously Rodriguez is at least a year later than all these guys.

---

Unedited Beyond this point (I ran out of time I apologize)

Jeff Jones (17:31)
So there are definitely there there are a lot of things there to sort through. I will note, interestingly, that unprompted Rodriguez’s name came out of the manager’s mouth this afternoon as we were kind talking about this spot, right? Like no one said, Hey, is Raniel in this picture? None that came up, but he’s as he’s listening through the guys that the name came out of his mouth, which I thought I thought was worth noting, right, as we’re having this conversation. I I think that they’re gonna go into next year, essentially look at the way

Look at look at Bernal the way that you would have looked at Pahas to start this season. He is the default catcher. He is gonna be the load catcher, and he is gonna be the guy who is gonna get those opportunities most of the time. I think they are by and large happy with the way the Herrera thing went this season. What I what I would say is I know that they are eager to tell us they are happy with the way that the Herrera thing went this season.

Right. There are two ways to read that. Either they are, which I I do think it I think it’s seventy thirty, they are actually happy with the way it went. The throwing, whatever, they they long ago made a decision that whatever they’re losing from the stolen bases, they’re gaining from the bat when it’s in the lineup and they’re just gonna eat it. That that’s I mean it’s it’s as long as we spent talking about can the throwing get better, their decision was we don’t care. The run production is good enough even when the throwing is bad. Right. So

I I think that it went well and he would basically slot into more or less the same role next year. I think that they would be comfortable with that. You know, he is closing in on being the first cardinal with seven hundred plate appearances and twenty homers since like Albert Poohs, who did it maybe once, and then you’re going back to Joe Torrey. Like it’s a weird list of guys who who have that many plate appearances who are that durable at at the plate in over the stretch of a long season. He he did it while catching twenty percent of the time, right? Like that you know, that was

I I think that that worked out pretty well. Now, what that means for Pajas and Crooks, I am less confident about. one thing to keep in mind with Pajes is that he is ARB one this winter. I don’t think that they would prefer to get to a point where that is a place where they just non-tender a guy. I don’t think it’s necessarily totally off the table. My my suspicion is I know that there were teams throughout the season, Pittsburgh was one of them, who called on Pajes when Crooks came up and just wanted to know.

Hey, what’s going on here? Like what like what’s the plan with this guy? What does the situation look like? So it it would not totally shock me if they made some of those calls kind of right after the end of the World Series as they came up on the tender deadline, yada yada, yada. That you’re getting into the question of are are teams gonna do trades if they think you’re gonna non-tender guy. You know, there there’s always stuff

Gabe (20:03)
Yeah.

Jeff Jones (20:04)
that happens in that spot, right? as for crooks, you know, I think that probably at this point, the way he holds the most value for them.

Is this the starter at Memphis next year? And if he pops, if you really need him, if he if he earns it in spring, you know, if you if you get to spring or or whatever, you get to May and Bernal turned into crooks this year, and crooks is having another triple A year, you look, right? There, you know, there’s no harm in that. So I do I do think you can pretty well fit essentially everyone into this picture. Other I I I think there’s a lot of conflict with Pahes and Bernal, and they have chosen Bernal. And that is sort of where it’s gonna work out.

Gabe (20:43)
So you said seventy thirty, seventy them being happy with their se season. Is the thirty that they are doing a public facing we’re happy with it and we want to trade them?

Jeff Jones (20:51)
Yes.

Jake Wood (20:51)
They’re selling. Yeah.

Jeff Jones (20:53)
Correct. That that to me that’s the third. Yeah. The thirty is let’s make sure that other teams know how happy we are with how he caught this year because if another team is trading for him, the su the surplus value is in the catching. Right. The reason to keep him catching is because he is such a better hitter than an average catcher and not that much a better adv hitter than an average DH for spaceman, whatever.

Gabe (21:12)
Yeah.

Makes sense.

Jake Wood (21:14)
So,

you know, you sat down with Mason Wynn just a bit ago and you kind of discussed the future with him and you know, from recent winter warm-ups, every time we asked him about his desire to stay long term, you know, he only had glowing things to say about the organization and w wanting to be in St. Louis long term. Is that still kind of his prevailing sentiment, or have things kind of changed? You know, he obviously

is a a superior defender, but the bat has yet to kind of manifest itself in an impactful, sustainable fashion, and fans seem split on whether they’d be on board with a long-term commitment. You know, is the glove itself worthy of look locking him in long term, or are you of the opinion that the bat needs to show more before the organization would, you know, consider long-term conversations with Mason Wynn?

Jeff Jones (22:02)
You know, th the way that I’ve kind of thought about this all summer is because I’ve had folks ask me, like, hey, do you think it’s a problem for when that Weatherholt got the deal first? Do you th you know, do you think that that is is an issue? And I I’ve always honestly sort of looked at it the opposite way, in that I I don’t think I don’t think under the current situation, Mason wants to be doing an extension because of the way his season has transpired. I think if you’re Mason win

You’d really don’t want to be going into negotiating an extension season off of an ADO PS plus platform season, right? Like that’s not that’s not a spot you want to be in because the Cardinals are going to be able to point to that. They’re going to point to your first year, they’re going to point to your most recent year, and they’re going to say you’ve never been a league average hitter. And you’re not, you know, you you have not or maybe the one, you maybe the twenty-four you was, but it but you know, have not consistently been even a league average hitter. The Gold Glove defense is great, but

right next door we have a guy locked up for the next eight years who has some experience in that position and you know, G dot dot dot. Right. So I just I think that Wynne is not in a good negotiating spot at the moment. and so I can’t really fault him or ca I can’t fault anyone for not being able to get that business done. Because, you know, if you’re the Cardinals, it I don’t think it’s unreasonable for them to say that they are gonna want to see at least over the course of a season or half a season even, right? Like and I, you know, I I I I don’t

I

don’t think it’s I don’t think it’s a good time for either side to get that deal done just because of the way his season went at the plate this year.

Gabe (23:28)
Speaking of extensions actually, when I think Bill DeWitt mentioned the when we signed Weatherhole to his extension, he said something like the first of hopefully a few or something like that.

Jeff Jones (23:38)
Yeah.

Gabe (23:38)
Phrasing.

Jake Wood (23:38)
More to come, yeah.

Gabe (23:40)
yeah, more to come. do you have any intel, I guess, into who they might be working on an extension with at the moment or or soon enough?

Jeff Jones (23:51)
I I don’t. I would be more or less guessing to do that. I I I could take an educated guess, but I think it would be the same thing as everybody else’s educated guess, so I don’t know that it would necessarily, you know, be all that productive. Like of of the guy of the guys you would have the conversation about, to me Burleson is the simplest one. That is the easiest that is the easiest deal to get done. Whether or not that happens, I truly don’t know whether or not it’s been discussed. I I can’t honestly say that I really know one way or another.

That to me is the one that it makes the most sense and that is the easiest to do and that would be a path to bridge that.

Jake Wood (24:26)
Obviously, you know, talking about Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker had a very twenty twenty-four Alec Burleson type season, you know, awesome in the first half, kinda fell off in the second half. You know, what of his long term viability as the Cardinals appear to be flush with, you know, some ascending outfield talent, you know, what could his future look like in St. Louis beyond just this minimum investment as he enters arbitration for the first time in his career this offseason as well?

Jeff Jones (24:52)
You know, I’ll say this about Jordan Walker. My my very strong suspicion is that we’re gonna get to the end of the season press conference and we’re gonna hear a lot about how much Jordan was playing through and kind of how his body was feeling on the second half of the season, right? We’ve already heard a little bit of it’s not going right it’s not going well for him right now. He’s fighting through it, we need to feel him fight through it, he’s frustrated. You know, it’s all the all the stuff you hear about like feel and comfort and such. I if when we get to the end of the season and we hear, hey, Jordan had X, Y, and Z kind of banged up in in in the lower body.

not gonna be shocked, right? The other night where he had that awkward step on first base, rolled the ankle, left a little early, that was the explanation, and okay. I I’m not in a position to doubt their explanations, but I watched him run down the line of that double play and he like he he wasn’t running well before he got to the bag, right? And and that’s look, it’s it’s game one fifty. Guys are gonna be dinged up. He’s he’s playing more baseball this year at a higher level than he’s played ever in his life, had a ton of success. It it’s been a strange year for him. So like

You know, ideally would you like him to finish as strong as he started this season? Yeah, probably. But I gotta say, I don’t really take the last month as an indication that the first four months were fake. I take the last month as an indication that the first four months were real, and that that the cumulative effect of that has has kind of gotten to him a little bit here down the stretch.

Gabe (26:06)
I don’t know if you can remember this out of hand, but do you know which relievers that are in the bullpen right now do you expect the Cardinals to say cyanor cyanara to like

Jeff Jones (26:19)
so let me I mean I we ’cause I was just the other day was sort of running down the rule five stuff and kind of what the forty man looks like and and the and the space that they have. It’s it’s really not that tight this winter. To me, I think there are only three, maybe four guys you would say are like one hundred percent slam dunk put on the forty guys. they they will probably add seven, eight, nine because there are guys you could definitely make the argument for, and they will probably have the space. You know, just when you think about the guys in the bullpen, like the one that I that that I’m not really sure about.

is WinQuest. I would be interested to see if we see him in some scripted higher leverage stuff maybe here over the last week to see if they can, you know, maybe they can try to get a little better of of an eye on kind of what that looks like. I had heard that they had a desire to get Rincone back to the big leagues before the season is over.

he would be eligible to do that the first game in Pittsburgh. So I will see if that happens. I don’t I don’t know that that is happening. I haven’t been told that that is happening, but I know that there was at least some desire to get him back for the end of the season. And so I wonder about that. Right? And and to stay in the organization. I you I I think folks don’t often remember that the Cardinals outrighted Kyle Leahy.

Gabe (27:34)
Mm-hmm.

Jeff Jones (27:34)
four years

ago and he just slipped and then they kept him and you know all this has happened since, right? So wouldn’t totally shock me if guys like that, the guys that we have seen make debuts, pitch a little, not a lot, and and not get a ton of exposure to leverage spots, those are the kind of guys who maybe you would see sort of slip back if they wanted to thin the forty out at the end of the season.

Jake Wood (27:53)
I I’m kinda curious of your perspective with like a George Soriano. So like we’re on the topic of the bullpen. You know, obviously he was he was really, really good through the first four ish months of the season.

got started to get into August, it started to to taper away a little bit, and as we’ve gotten into September, it’s really started to to seem to struggle for him. Again, it’s a guy who’s really overloaded on terms of in terms of innings that he’s, you know, been asked to perform in and appearances for his career. Do you think that there is any type of hesitation

from the Cardinals perspective about carrying him into next season because it appears there’s a lot of fan sentiment at least who have maybe it’s out of frustration, but have made up their mind that George Soriano is not a piece to move forward with, into into future seasons.

Jeff Jones (28:41)
Yeah, I mean I don’t think that they’re married to him, right? Like I don’t think that they necessarily think he’s you know, has a future as like a really important piece of their high leverage. Again, he, you know, wasn’t one of the guys I would think about in terms of internal options to to to replace O’Brien if that became necessary. The thing I’ll say about Soriano and and the way that I’ve kind of come to think about his season, and it’s not it’s not totally fair because he had reasonably significant day league experience before this year, so it’s not a one-to-one comparison. But if you think of like him and Pichard combined as the rule five spot.

Right. Bashard didn’t work out. They let it go, send him back to Miami, Godspeed. Maybe he gets back to the big leagues. They really kind of just treated Soriano like a rule five guy in that same way where they couldn’t move him, they couldn’t do anything with him. So he’s going to pitch through it. He’s going to get some opportunities. And he pitched well into some of them and then pitched out of it. So, you know, if if he’s if he’s the the the seventh or eighth guy in your bullpen, your third or fourth highest leverage righty reliever, I think you can live with that.

and I think for the cost they would be more than happy to have that, especially because they liked enough of what they saw of of of the repertoire, you know, last winter. They claimed him on waivers multiple times and were not the preceding claims, so they didn’t get him and finally just traded for him to to shortcut the waiver line. That that was how much they liked him last winter. I don’t know that they necessarily gave him anything throughout the season to like him a whole lot less than that. so I I do think he factors in for them, but I don’t necessarily think he’s like a building block or anything.

Gabe (30:05)
Sort of a very random player to ask about, but d how do you think the Cardinals view Chase Davis? Do you think they view him as somebody that will eventually figure it out or is he kind of just like, we’re gonna keep him in triple A? Hopefully figures it out. We’ve already kinda he’s not part of our plans, hopefully he forces his way back into our plans. How do you think they view Chase Davis?

Jeff Jones (30:27)
Yeah,

I I you know, he’s obviously relevant to this rule five conversation and this forty man conversation, right? I think the realistic answer is he was a first round pick and so they’re gonna protect him and they’re gonna see if it unlocks. I I think is is probably the honest way that that it that it’s gonna shake out. I don’t think he necessarily like squeezes anybody that they are all that concerned about, right? Again, talking about the shape of the forty man, like Emerson Pereira’s on the forty man, they don’t seem especially interested in what he has to offer necessarily, so

If that is the case, Davis probably is just as useful in that 40 minute spot as Pereira would be, right? Like that, you that that that’s that that to me is a spot they can afford to use and see where it goes from there. You know, like we were talking about with Church, right? Like I don’t think they’re a hundred percent convinced that on their next playoff team, Nathan Church is their starting center fielder. And so if it breaks for Davis, great. And and maybe, you know, maybe he becomes that guy. And if he doesn’t, well, okay. And he’s gonna be a guy who maybe can become Nathan Church as Nathan Church is hitting arbitration.

And if that’s how that works out, that’s probably a useful enough use of that roster spot.

Gabe (31:30)
Is Vic is Victor Scat gone?

Jeff Jones (31:34)
I’m not gonna say gone. I think that

I it it’s really hard for me to see what the path looks like, right? I I just think the way that it is sort of broken out this season. I think the way that the offense wasn’t there. and I think frankly, from the way you’re seeing him used over this last month, right? Like there is there is not a premium place on getting him opportunity right now. He’s on the roster, but he’s I mean, like he he he might not get a start the rest of the way. I we were a little surprised that there were a couple of starts for him this weekend and and some of that was just, you know.

It’s hot, stay after night, all that stuff. So I I think, you know, it’s hard because there are definitely guys who in the in what now maybe you would say is the best peak league version of Victor Scott had really good careers, right? Like the obvious ones are out in Gerard Dyson, guys like that, right? Who who were, you know, eighty percent gloves, center fielders, super fast, hit ninth, played elite defense. You can get away with it if you have other stuff going on in that team. But even those guys, like

Gerard Dyson’s average years were like 80 OPS plus, and Victor’s in that 55 to 60 range, right? And that’s just that’s tough. It’s really hard to be on a roster and hit that little. Like, you know, you like the Ur version of this guy is, I don’t know, Billy Hamilton. And when Billy Hamilton was breaking the 70 floor, he was not in the big leagues anymore. And that was that that that I’m not saying that Victor can’t figure it out or that he is not going to get himself back to a spot where he can find that kind of contact profile.

But he doesn’t have it right now and I don’t know that they have a whole lot of time to let him find it.

Gabe (33:10)
Yeah, I think it’s telling that he’s playing left field when he’s a defensive replacement and not center field, ’cause I think he’s probably a better defender than church.

Jake Wood (33:15)
Centerfield. That was that was a big surprise to me. Yeah.

Jeff Jones (33:18)
Because because the because the reps for church are more valuable for them.

Jake Wood (33:23)
Makes total sense. You know

The one name we haven’t talked about, but I feel like is he’s very polarizing, a very Pandora’s box for fans, it’s Nolan Gorman, right? When we talk about third base being an open place for for competition going into next season, obviously like you alluded to in the in the very beginning, you know, the Cardinals got answers, but sometimes it’s on players and not in a positive way. Do you think that the Cardinals have enough now after, I don’t know, eighteen hundred played appearances, I think, is right around where he’s at, to f to to have some final

Yeah.

Jeff Jones (33:59)
Yeah, I I think when when Marmole talks about we got answers to a lot of questions, they weren’t all good answers, I think he’s talking about Dylan Gorman. I I think that is sort of the way that that’s gonna work out here. And, you know, again, if if the strikeout rate gets down to something reasonable, you know, and and reasonable in this case being thirty one thirty two and not thirty six thirty seven, then maybe you’re having a different conversation. but it just it just hasn’t gotten there. And again, that’s a guy who they are clearly not making time

to get opportunity sport, right? Like for me is playing third base, Torres is getting extra days in left field, and Nolan Gorman is not pitching. So, you know, I I think it’s it’s sort of clear the way that they’re pointed on that one. And again, he’s gonna be going into ARB this winter with enough career homers that the ARB number it might just be at a spot where it doesn’t really work for the Cardinals.

Jake Wood (34:47)
Do you think that’s likely a non tender situation, or do you think that there is any type of marketability in him where they could get a fringe forty man reliever type, just get something in return for him? F

Jeff Jones (34:58)
I think if there was

a lot of trademark, it probably would’ve happened at the deadline. and I think the fact that it didn’t probably says that it that’s hard. That they’re that that whether it’s a value mismatch or whatever, I just don’t know. I don’t know that that matches there. Especially again, like we talked about earlier, if you’re in a spot where if other teams think you’re gonna non tender the guy, they’re not gonna make the deal. They’ll roll the dice

Jake Wood (35:20)
Sure.

Jeff Jones (35:21)
and and and and hope that he’s on the free agent market because for them the value is gonna be marginal.

Gabe (35:27)
So here’s a news related question, recent thing I saw. what surgery did Tink Hens have and how long is he expected to be

Jake Wood (35:35)
Good question.

Gabe (35:36)
out for? Or how long I

Jeff Jones (35:38)
I have no idea.

Gabe (35:38)
should say ’cause it’s obviously we have a whole off season. What’s the timeline on the recovery from the injury?

Jeff Jones (35:44)
I I I have I have absolutely no idea. I don’t know if it’s the shoulder, I don’t know if it’s the elbow. That he’s been off the forty and then he’s been at the complex and then he disappeared for a while and then he was in LA clear like and this is all stuff that that we have like gathered through Instagram. Like this is not like the Cardinals giving us up on this. It’s like okay, Tink’s in Miami today, okay, Tink’s in LA today, his brother lives in LA. and then Kink is walking out of a doctor’s office in Los Angeles with his arm in his leg. Now he’s in LA, so I would guess it was Eltrash, but I I I would be guessing.

that it was L you know. And if it was El Trash, it could have it could be anywhere from the finger all the way to the joint of the shoulder. So I don’t know and it hasn’t really it hasn’t come up. I’m sure it will be asked at the end of season pressure with Haim, you know, here in a in a week or so, but it I I do not know more than Instagram knows.

Jake Wood (36:32)
Jeff, I I I asked our guest last week and I wanted to ask you er was it last week, it was two weeks ago, whenever we had Matt Polly on w when you think back on twenty twenty six, what will be the one moment that stands out y to you the most of everything that has kind of taken place or occurred this season? That you’ll look back five years from now and kind of remember, you know, that that moment happened.

Jeff Jones (36:56)
Joshua

Bias at Wrigley Field. It’s a thousand percent the Joshua Bias game at Wrigley Field. That was that that that I don’t know that I will see anything that cool in in a career covering baseball, right? Like that was just you know, the first the first one it happened and you go, and then you look and it’s like, I didn’t even you know, I didn’t know that Matthew Boyd was related to Joshua Bias. Okay, we learned he could hit a ninety-four mile an hour fastball belled high over the outer half. I bet he can. you know, but then the second one happens and you’re like, you know, and then you know, you’re looking up

When did this last happen? Who’s done it in their first two? It bay, you you’re making the list, you’re doing all that stuff. You’re talking about Keith McDonald, who I I met, by the way, like ten days ago happened to be at Bush Stadium. He’d already he had a pre-existing trip plan. So the cardinals like had him come meet Joshua Baez and take photos and do all this stuff. so you know, the second one happens and you’re doing all that work. And then the third one happens, and I I’ve told this story a couple of times, but like you know, you travel around, you go to press boxes and stuff, and there are people who work in all these places where like

I I know a face, I don’t know what anybody’s name, but like the the the guy who who takes the media meal in Milwaukee, I could draw you a portrait of him. I have no idea what the man’s name is, very nice man, but I could I g I could sketch out what the guy looks like, right? So there are people like this just all over the place in press boxers, and there is a woman who works in the press box at Wrigley who has worked there for as long as I have been going to Wrigley Field, and I’m like I’m literally like standing up just like looking around at the things that are happening.

And I look back and I make eye contact this woman and and and she just go she goes, holy shit. And that like right

and that like that is the moment. That is the memory from that moment that I will take away from that is this woman. I couldn’t tell you her name, but I’ve seen her at Wrigley fifty times and and we we had eye contact and that was and that that is the that is like the stick-out memory of that.

Gabe (38:43)
On a much sillier note, I saw you respond to Justin Turner, who for some reason decided to use chat GPT about Mason Wynn being able to throw it slower on that one play. wha what happened to his brain? I don’t understand why he cares about this.

Jeff Jones (38:58)
And so I So here

is the most important thing I can say about this. Every single time I have ever heard Mason Wynne talk about this, he has been magnanimous and kind. And it says, no, no, they actually he made a good point and people shouldn’t get on it. Like Mason is very particular to be very clear that he does not have a Justin Turner problem, right? Like he is really committed to making sure people know that.

All that being said, like, and I I was joking with him about this today. In fact, and what I told Nathan was, I don’t know how much money I would have to have made in my career to never look at Twitter ever again. But it’s a hell of a lot less than Justin Turner made playing baseball. Like

Gabe (39:41)
Yeah.

Jeff Jones (39:42)
just just don’t. What are you doing? What like people love you. You’re a Dodger you were a Los Angeles Dodgers legend forever. You made a hundred and forty million dollars and you won a World Series and you get to go

guest bartend at Dodger Stadium and get a standing ovation once a week for the rest of your life. Stop tweeting. Don’t go to ChatGPT. There’s no reason that Justin Turner needs to know how to do that. Not important. You know who I guarantee you doesn’t know how to use ChatGPT? Jason Isringhausen. Doesn’t care. Not a part of his life. Like it’s just then doesn’t care. It just Yeah. Right. Can goes to Fastaddies, goes to Jupiter

Jake Wood (40:18)
Knows how to drink a nice cold beer at Fast Eddies, I’ll tell you that.

Jeff Jones (40:25)
Hunt stuff like and I don’t think he made as much money as Justin Turner. Like you know, just don’t do it. Just have a better life.

Jake Wood (40:33)
Absolutely. You know, speaking of the wonderful Twitter machine and all of social media, Jeff, can you please take a brief moment to kinda plug your written work and where fans can go to find all of your great stuff.

Jeff Jones (40:45)
Yeah,

there are stuff still happening in the Belleville News Democrat for now, as far as I’m aware. throughout the winter, what I would say is that you should be checking out Words About Birds, WordsaboutBirds dot com. that is up right now. Monthly subscriptions are live. I also turned on an off season subscription and then realized literally today that the math I had done makes it like you get less for buying the off season subscription the way I have a structure right now. So I’m gonna fix that. we’re gonna get that fixed, and so all of a sudden you’re not paying more than the monthly subscriber. I don’t that that’s not how that’s supposed to work. Look.

The whole point here is that I get to write stuff and don’t have to like do anything else and apparently that includes math. so we’re you know my the business part of it I I’m just trying to write. Right. So we’re just that’s what you know. So that’s there for now. Please check that out. there will be lots of stuff from Milwaukee, from Heim Bloom’s in a season press conference, from whatever happens this winter until things stop happening this winter.

Jake Wood (41:39)
Jeff, you know, we appreciate your time and insight as always. We’ll be looking forward to your coverage all off season long, like you alluded to, and hopefully, you know, you can squeeze us in whenever CBA stuff starts happening. And so someone who is more affluent in baseball economics can layman’s terms a lot of what’s changing for us. We would really appreciate.

Jeff Jones (41:57)
Yeah, you know, I have a strong suspicion then come that come like February, March, April, my only competition for time is gonna be like the Royal Caribbean Casino Loyalty Program. So as long as they don’t have me out in the middle of the the ocean too often, I’ll have a lot of free time probably.

Jake Wood (42:12)
Terrific. Thank you so much for joining us for this episode of the Viva Albertos podcast. Don’t forget to rate, review, and hit that subscribe button so you’re notified every Monday morning. For Gabe Simons and Jeff Jones, my name is Jake Wood, and we’ll talk to you all next week and bring you more great Cardinals content. Have a great day, St. Louis, and let’s go cards!

With just six games to go, the Diamondbacks have a record of 82-74. While not technically eliminated from post-season contention yet, their playoff hopes would require a spectacular confluence of events in the first half of the week, probably followed by a sweep of the Padres in San Diego next weekend. Obviously, that’s disappointing. But on the other hand, the D-backs have, albeit in a small way, actually done better than what most neutral expectations were for team at the beginning of the year. Let’s start off by reviewing what various parties predicted Arizona would do before Opening Day.

The metrics

• Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA): 78.4 wins. Our friends over at Purple Row captured this prediction in their preview of the division. They (and not BP) said, “The D-Backs still have some question marks and might not emerge as one of MLB’s top teams, but they certainly are positioned to push for the playoffs if they see a return to form for Gallen and some improvements to their pitching numbers overall. However, an uptick in pitching could unfortunately pair with a regression in batting, threatening those chances.”
• Fangraphs: 81-81. These came out in late January, once Dan Szymborski had finished running ZIPS for all thirty teams. We’ll get more into those later, as we look at which individuals out- or under-performed their projections. But there isn’t much said about them at the overall level, except for “ZIPS remains unsure of Arizona’s rotation.” However, at the end of spring training, the expected tally was still basically 81-81, with a 31% chance of making the post-season.

The pundits

• George Castillo, ESPN: 81-81. “Will the pitching staff sink Arizona’s playoff chances again? The Diamondbacks can score. Two years ago, they paced the majors in runs scored. Last year, they finished sixth… And yet, the Diamondbacks have not reached the postseason since their surprise run to the World Series in 2023, largely because their pitching staff ranked 27th in ERA in 2024 and 23rd last season.”
• Tim Kelly, Bleacher Report: 82-80. “Lovullo has shown an ability to get the most out of his teams, and with Corbin Caroll, Ketel Marte and Gerlado Perdomo anchoring his lineup, this is going to be a competitive team. They just have too much working against them in terms of pitching injuries.”
• Gabe Lacques, USA Today: 81-81. “In coming weeks, Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82) corner infielders Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana will turn 35 and 40, respectively. They’ll need some gulps from the fountain of youth to ensure the bottom of the lineup isn’t an arid wasteland.”
• Ryan Phillips, Sports Illustrated: 77-85. “The Diamondbacks signed several late-career veterans, searching for the magic of 2023. But Arizona’s roster doesn’t look anywhere near pennant-worthy. Manager Torey Lovullo has just two playoff appearances in nine seasons.”
• Fred Zinkle, Yahoo! Sports: 82-80. “This figures to be a retooling year in Arizona, while the organization waits to get Burnes back in 2027. Success this season might look like determining which players, particularly among Del Castillo, Lawlar, Pfaadt, Nelson and Thomas, can be part of the next wave of success. There will also be more trade rumors around Marte in July, and the front office will have to decide whether to recoup a package of prospects or keep Marte in hopes of competing in 2027.”

The group exercises

• Sports books: 79.5 wins. This was more or less the consensus across the board, with the line being drawn here by Caesar’s, Draft Kings and BetMGM.
• Arizona Sports roundtable: 81.8 wins. The radio station polled 14 of their staff, with numbers ranging from 75 to 86 wins. They also asked if the team would make the playoffs, and “No” won that vote, ten of the fourteen polled saying there’d be no post-season.
• AZ SnakePit writers: 84.2 wins. The highest prediction and not unexpectedly, the usual optimism prevailing. This is in line with history over the last couple of years, the 2025 prediction being a (now somewhat embarrassing!) 91.3 wins, and the 2024 prediction also being higher than reality could deliver, at 86.7 wins. And that 2024 figure was before we signed Jordan Montgomery, which seemed like a big deal at the time…
• Fan vote: 84 wins. This answer is based off the median – half above, half below – for SnakePit voters in our poll. The most popular category was actually higher, at 86-88 wins. But that only got 21%, barely edging out the 83-85 win group, at 20%. The “tail” below that was also longer, bringing the median down.

A straight average of the eleven predictions above comes in at 81 wins – an expectation of just one more victory than the previous season. As we head into the final week of the season, the Diamondbacks are already above that. There is even a significant chance of reaching 85 wins, which would be better than any of the 11 pre-season projections mentioned above. Taking two of three in Colorado and one in San Diego would get us there. Get one less, and 84 wins is certainly very plausible. That would only be (very narrowly) surpassed by the SnakePit writers’ poll. But what are the individual contributors to the moderate over-performance?

Winners and losers

When it comes to looking at individual players, we are mostly going off the 2026 ZIPS projections for Arizona. [I had to chase down some players not present on that page, no longer with AZ] As with any projection system, these are expectations, not guarantees. Inevitably, reality will differ, and that’s no mark at all against the effort Dan Szymborski puts in to them. Don’t worry about the playing time numbers, especially for those we didn’t see. Cristofer Torin did not quite make 129 appearances. We’re looking only at the fWAR expected tallies, compared to the actual ones. Those are through Saturday night’s game, although with only about 4% of the schedule remaining, I didn’t bother pro-rating.

Hitters: Over- and under-performers

• Gabriel Moreno 4.9 vs. 3.3
• Nolan Arenado 2.7 vs. 1.9
• ———
• Carlos Santana 0.6 vs. -0.5
• Ketel Marte 2.3 vs 4.3
• Lourdes Gurriel 1.3 vs. -1.0

I’ve not listed on either side, players like Jordan Lawlar, whose playing time didn’t come close to the ZIPS figure, for reasons beyond their control. Though technically, Santana and Gurriel’s didn’t either. So yes, I am being very arbitrary about this. No question who the team’s MVP has been, and I’m sure Mike Hazen is regretting not being able to ink Moreno to a long-term contract last winter. The asking price will now be considerably higher, and a significant arbitration bump will be coming down Gaby Lane next year (lockout permitting). Arenado has also been everything we could have wanted, and more.

On the downside, hopes that Santana might be able to play a competent first-base proved wildly optimistic, and the team didn’t really have a Plan B. That’s why we have Ildemaro Vargas getting more at-bats at 1B than anyone else. This was a mistake by Hazen. The discovery Gurriel was now well below replacement level in left was also unpleasant, and Max Kepler wasn’t the answer either. Then there’s the whole Marte situation. Be very interesting to see what happens there over the winter, because if the sharp drop-off in production was not a blip, those four remaining guaranteed years might not be a lot of fun.

Pitchers: Over- and under-performers

• Eduardo Rodriguez: 3.1 vs. 1.5
• Michael Soroka: 2.5 vs. 0.9
• Juan Morillo: 1.5 vs. -0.1
• Brandyn Garcia: 1.3 vs. 0.0
• ———
• Zac Gallen: -0.1 vs. 1.8
• Merrill Kelly: -0.2 vs. 1.9
• Corbin Burnes: 0.0 vs. 2.6

Very much a rotation of two halves. ERod and Soroka have both performed much better than expected, while Gallen and Kelly have been sore disappointments. We should have let Zac just walk, and the lack of suitors for his services in 2026 turned out to be the reddest of red flags. Kelly will be around next year, and there is hope in that he has been better of late. Small sample-size, but over the four games since the spat with the Cubs, where he may have discovered he was pitch-tipping, Merrill has a 2.86 ERA and 3.55 FIP. Anything like those figures in the remaining year of his contract will be a huge improvement. But Burnes’ extremely belated arrival might have hurt most of all.

Previous years have seen mocking of Mike Hazen for his dumpster diving approach to building a bullpen. But it has worked very well. Discounting Gallen, the eight other current members of the bullpen are earning a total of less than $13 million this year. That’s several million less than the Dodgers are paying Edwin Diaz alone this year, for 15.2 innings of work and a 10.34 ERA. Morillo, Garcia and Jonathan Loaisiga have thrown 171.2 combined innings for an ERA of 2.15. That has been worth a total of 3.9 fWAR, while the trio are getting paid only about $3 million between them. After years of quiet desperation, this bullpen has been quite the refreshing change.

Conclusions

Projections are always going to be wrong. If you look at the Fangraphs totals, there are some big misses: most notably under-estimating the Padres, and over-estimating the Mets. But five of the six teams at the top of the NL will indeed (almost certainly, I guess I should caveat) be among the six teams representing the league in the post-season. While it’s obviously disappointing again not to be in the playoffs, I think it’s encouraging to see the team surpassing expectations. The sharp improvement in the pitching, especially the bullpen, is hopefully something which can be sustained. Get some improved offense and if there is a 2027 season, I expect the D-backs again to be playing meaningful baseball into September.

Six games remain in the 2026 regular season.

All four teams still alive in the National League Wild Card race — the Cubs, Padres, Phillies and Diamondbacks — are off Monday. Thus they will begin Tuesday’s action with the same position and percentages noted in this article.

The Cubs and Padres are currently tied for the top Wild Card spot at 87-69, with the Cubs ahead because they own the tiebreaker with San Diego. The Phillies are one game back at 86-70 and the Diamondbacks are 82-74 and on the verge of elimination, four games behind the Phillies; their elimination number with the Cubs is 1, so the Cubs can clinch a Wild Card spot by defeating the Marlins Tuesday.

This is where it’s really fortunate that the Cubs have the tiebreaker over the Padres and Phillies. If all three teams wound up tied at the end of the regular season, the Cubs would get the first wild card spot. In that scenario they’d host the Phillies, because Philadelphia swept their season series 6-0 over San Diego. Here are all the various tiebreaker rules.

The article in The Athletic noting the odds and percentages for various postseason scenarios has been updated through Sunday’s games, so I thought today would be a good time to take a look at the various odds and chances.

First, here are the percentage odds for the possible postseason matchups for the first two rounds:

As compared to the last post I made on this topic on Saturday, the chances for the Cubs to be the No. 4 seed (and top Wild Card) have increased from 40 percent to 60 percent. The Cubs still control their own destiny — win out and they’re the top Wild Card.

The Brewers are very likely to be the No. 1 National League seed. They currently lead the Dodgers by two games and hold the tiebreaker.

Now, here are the Cubs’ percentages of making the postseason and where they would wind up, based on each possible W/L record in the remaining six games:

Aa you can see, the Cubs’ chances of being that No. 4 seed are better than 50 percent even if they go just 3-3 over the six games, and they increase to 99 percent if they can go at least 5-1.

The worst-case scenarios are going 1-5 or 0-6, which could dump them into the No. 6 position. But with the Marlins coming to town, that seems very unlikely. Miami is 31-47 on the road this year and so the Cubs ought to take at least two of three from them at Wrigley Field. Then the Cubs travel to Boston, where the Red Sox are likely going to be locked in to the second wild card spot in the American League before that series begins. Hopefully the Cubs can win at least one, maybe two, at Fenway Park.

That would leave the Cubs with either three or four wins, at minimum, this week and that’s even before considering what the other teams are doing. The Padres have to face the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium for a three-game series before finishing the season at home against the Diamondbacks. The Phillies are home, but face the teams with the best record in each league for a three-game series each, the Brewers and Rays. The Brewers still need to win to clinch home field throughout the postseason, and the Rays have a magic number of 2 to clinch the AL East. In any case, neither is a pushover for the Phillies.

So the Cubs have a pretty good chance of hosting a Wild Card series next week at Wrigley Field. And as always, we await developments.

So it all comes down to this? After the Yankees dropped the last two games of their series against the Diamondbacks in the desert, the math is at least simple for the Yankees in their last-ditch Hail Mary: win all four games to flip the season series with the Rays to 7–6 in their favor, shrinking the division deficit to two games and securing the tiebreaker. Should such a miracle occur, then each team’s final series of the regular season comes into play (Phillies for the Rays, Orioles for the Yanks). Anything less than a sweep, and the Rays will celebrate clinching the AL East on the Yankee Stadium infield.

Both offenses come in having played pretty well over their last 10 games. Even with Aaron Judge not doing much and then returning to the IL, the Yankees have averaged 5.4 runs per game, while the Rays have averaged 5.7 over that span. This series, much like the whole year, will of course not feature the Yankees’ captain. With postseason baseball right around the corner, there are no longer places to hide or excuses to be made.

After the offday for both clubs today, the bullpens will come in ready to handle the doubleheader on Tuesday and the following two games. The Rays have three standouts ready to roll in Bryan Baker, who has a major-league-leading 40 saves while posting a 1.49 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Right behind him, Kevin Kelly has made 68 appearances, tossing 72.0 innings while maintaining a 0.90 WHIP and a solid 2.49 ERA. Meanwhile, left-hander Cam Booser has provided 38.1 innings with an outstanding 42:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.78 WHIP on the year. Now let’s dive into the starting pitching matchups.

Tuesday, Game 1: Carlos Rodón vs. Nick Martinez (1:05 p.m. ET)

The Yankees will send Rodón out for game one of the doubleheader. Rodón has fully settled into his normal rhythm of ugly, but quality starts. He actually hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start all year long, though elbow inflammation cost him about seven weeks. Across 15 starts, he has delivered a sharp 2.95 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 76.1 innings, limiting opponents to a .178 batting average. Over his last three outings, Rodón has showcased his usual grind, allowing a total of just four earned runs over 17.1 innings while racking up 20 strikeouts.

Martinez takes the hill for the Rays to counter Rodón. The righty has quietly had a phenomenal campaign for Tampa Bay. Spanning 29 starts, he has an impressive 15-4 record with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 171.1 innings of work, all while walking only 24 batters all season. The journeyman was an All-Star for the first time in 2026 and won his most recent start on September 16th, throwing an efficient 72 pitches over five innings against the A’s. Martinez has given up five earned runs over his last three turns through the rotation and has been pulled with varying lower-pitch counts each time. Martinez’s primary weapon is a high-spin changeup that completely neutralizes left-handed bats.

Tuesday, Game 2: Max Fried vs. Drew Rasmussen (7:05 p.m. ET)

The Yankees hand the ball to another veteran lefty in Fried for the nightcap of the twin bill. Despite managing his workload (and bone bruise) carefully down the stretch to stay completely fresh for October, Fried’s “full”-season body of work has been spectacular. In 19 starts this season, he has pitched to a 2.63 ERA and a 0.981 WHIP, racking up 100 strikeouts over 106 frames while holding opponents to a meager .198 average. In his last two starts, Fried struggled against the Rockies (only allowing a run on one hit but needing 80 pitches to record 10 outs) before rebounding in Minnesota, going seven strong innings of one-run ball on September 15th.

Tampa Bay counters with their top guy in the right-handed Rasmussen to finish out the doubleheader. The 31-year-old has put together a great season for the Rays and is the most likely candidate to start Game 1 of a playoff series for them, logging a 15-5 record over 29 starts and a 2.72 ERA, a 0.925 WHIP, and 163 strikeouts in 165.1 innings. Rasmussen is coming off a good performance against the A’s, firing five scoreless innings before being lifted with a comfortable 6-0 lead. Over his last three starts, he has surrendered just two earned runs in 19.0 innings. Rasmussen attacks hitters with a dose of high-velocity cutters and hard-sweeping sliders.

Wednesday: Gerrit Cole vs. Ian Seymour* (7:05 p.m. ET)

The mid-week spotlight features the Cole train hoping to find the rails he and Scranton have both abandoned of late. On the year, Cole has a 9-9 record with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 123 strikeouts across 121.1 innings. Cole has been a bit volatile in his last three outings. He was tagged for five runs by the Mets on September 12th and four runs by the Padres on September 6th, but bounced back in his most recent start on September 18th in Arizona, firing six innings of four-hit, two-run ball with six strikeouts. Although Cole coughed up a combined seven long balls to the Mets and Padres, he at least kept the D-backs to one shot by Corbin Carroll. Aaron Boone has said that the old ace will get a playoff start, so it’s vital that he keeps the homers in check in his regular-season finale.

The Rays haven’t officially announced their Wednesday starter yet, but the next man in the rotation after Rasmussen is Seymour, and he would be on normal rest. The lefty from Madison, Connecticut has compiled a 9-7 record with a 4.38 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts in 127.1 innings. Over his last three starts, he struck out 10 in a six-inning performance against Houston on September 12th, but was touched up for four runs by Boston on September 18th and three runs by Texas on September 6th. Seymour leads with a low-90s four-seam fastball that plays up due to a unique extension and arm slot, paired with a good changeup and a sweeping slider.

Thursday: Cam Schlittler vs. Freddy Peralta* (7:05 p.m. ET)

Schlittler has gone from a rising young fan favorite to the runaway favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. Over a sample size of 32 starts, Schlittler has thrown 190.2 innings and posted a stellar 1.94 ERA (ranking second in MLB) alongside a 0.91 WHIP (third in MLB) and 234 strikeouts against an unfair .184 opponent batting average. Schlittler has not given up more than a single earned run in a start since August 3rd. Here is to hoping Schlittler has another few amazing starts left in store for us in 2026. What a season! This will be his final tune-up before the playoffs.

The Rays are on track to wrap up the series by sending the veteran right-hander Peralta to the hill to counter Schlittler. Since coming over to the Rays at the 2026 Trade Deadline following a regrettable short stint with the Mets, he is throwing his changeup more and is showing a change in arm angle. On the year, he has a 9-11 record, a 4.56 ERA, a 1.335 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts over 158 innings. In his last three outings, he allowed one run over 5.2 innings against Boston on September 19th, spun five scoreless against Houston on September 13th, and gave up just four hits and a run over six innings in Atlanta on September 8th. That computes for a superb 1.08 ERA over his last 16.2 innings. Nicknamed “Fastball Freddy,” Peralta features a delivery that makes his mid-90s four-seam fastball almost pop into view for hitters. He relies heavily on that fastball, pairing it with a sweeping slider and that aforementioned fading changeup.

*Starter not yet finalized

Today Minor League Baseball has announced their post-season Double-A All Stars for each league, and one Atlanta Braves prospect was named to the team for the Southern League. That would be Brett Sears, who took one of the four starting pitcher spots, to be named just the second Clingstones player in history to be named to the team – as the team only started play for the 2025 season.

Sears made 17 appearances, including 15 starts, for Columbus totaling 94.2 innings. He pitched to a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 113 strikeouts and 22 walks. Sears allowed 7.6 hits per nine innings with the Clingstones, holding batters to a .228 average with a .282 OBP and .373 slugging percentage – a .655 OPS against him on the year. He also made five good starts to date with Gwinnett and one rehab start in the FCL after missing about a month of action in May.

Sears was a seventh round pick out of the University of Nebraska back in 2024 and this strong season was the follow up to his 2025 that saw him debut in Low-A and rocket up the system to reach Triple-A in his first professional season.

Three other Braves prospects had a case for the team, but fell short due to either competition for the spots or not enough playing time in Columbus. The biggest snub would be third baseman Jordan Groshans and his .932 OPS, who was left off the team because of the presence of Andrew Fischer (1.026 OPS). Catcher Adam Zebrowski (.932 OPS) and first baseman/DH David McCabe (.962 OPS) had a case as well, but both were under 240 plate appearances in Double-A this year.

We come to the last week of the season, and the Twins have officially been eliminated from playoff contention and will not be able to finish the season with a winning record. On the bright side, Walker Jenkins figured out major league pitching! The Twins wrap up the season with a series in San Francisco and finish at home against the Rangers. If you want something to root for, the Twins are tied for third with the Tigers, so maybe we can root for being right in the middle of the division.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• While this season has (maybe) not gone as expected, at least we’re not the 2016 team, as Zach Koenig reminds us.
• We’ve seen one week of Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Aidan O’Brien writes about why he has the makings of a star.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• It’s been an up-and-down year for Bailey Ober, but Bobby Nightengale at the Star Tribune looks at whether there’s still a place for a sub-90 pitcher in today’s MLB.
• Aaron Gleeman analyzes five breakout prospects from the 2026 season.
• Matthew Taylor at Twins Daily dives into two bullpen arms, Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk, and their prospects for 2027.
• Aaron Sabato will finally have an opportunity to play in the majors after getting promoted for the final week of the season.

In the World of Baseball:

• The Yankees and the Red Sox joined the Rays as teams to clinch their spot in the playoffs. Due to a quirk in MLB playoff format, only one of these teams is going to make it to the ALCS. The Rays have not exactly clinched the #1 spot in the AL, but with seven games left in the season, they only need to win two of those games to finish in the top spot. The Guardians and White Sox are battling it out for the AL Central lead, after another classic September charge from the Guardians to go from a distant second in the division to now having the lead. However, neither team has clinched a playoff spot, as the Blue Jays, Astros, and Orioles still have an outside chance for the final wild-card spot. In the AL West, the Rangers hold a slim 1.0-game lead over the Astros, so it’s still anyone’s game there.
• In the NL, the Dodgers and Braves have joined the Brewers as division champs, while the Cubs, Padres, and Phillies are all virtual locks to make it to the wild card round. Only the Diamondbacks can take a spot, but it’s going to be tough, as they are four games behind the Phillies for the last spot.
• Boston started out the season 10-17, with the playoffs a distant hope. Tim Keown at ESPN looks at how the team pulled itself together and could potentially finish with the third-best record in the American League.
• While it might seem that the season is all but over, Brent Maguire at MLB.com looks at the top nine things at stake in the final week.

Each year, the Phillies select a position player and a pitcher from their minor league system that they believe to have had the best year in their organization. This year’s winners are probably easy to identify.

The @Phillies have named Alex McFarlane and Bryan Rincon as the recipients of the 2026 Paul Owens Award, presented annually to the organization's top minor league pitcher and hitter! pic.twitter.com/G2mC5oTobQ

— Phillies Player Development (@PhilsPlayerDev) September 21, 2026

McFarlane has been making a name for himself of late at the major league level, but it’s important to know how well he was doing in the minor leagues. He struck out over 12 hitters per nine innings, showing his stuff was still quite good even as he climbed the minor league ladder (even if his control was a bit sketchy at times), posting a 1.83 ERA across 36 minor league innings.

Rincon was arguably the biggest breakout the team had offensively. His .267/.410/.517 line with 27 home runs and 67 RBI was eye opening, his added 30 steals less so as he’s always had the speed. His finally getting some consistent playing time with no real major injuries happening was huge for his development as a hitter, changing his trajectory with the organization. He has a real chance at cracking a roster as utility player in the near future, maybe even as a starter if he can continue these improvements he has made this season.

Congrats to both players.

The Texas Rangers enter the final week of the 2026 regular season in first place in the American League West with a 78-78 record, one game up on the Houston Astros.

One week ago today, we talked about how the 2026 Rangers were in almost exactly the same spot the 2025 Rangers were in 365 days earlier. Fangraphs had the Rangers with a 31.3% chance of making the playoffs when we did that post.

Three days ago, we talked about how, with nine games left in the regular season, the Rangers were still in the mix after taking two of three against the Red Sox. Fangraphs gave the Rangers a 32.9% chance of making the playoffs when we did that post.

Things have changed quickly over the past week, and in particular, over the weekend. Texas took two of three over the Toronto Blue Jays, who were one of the teams the Rangers were fighting for a playoff spot three days ago. The Astros, meanwhile, got swept at home by the Atlanta Braves, with former Rangers Tyler Mahle and Martin Perez starting two of the games for Atlanta and throwing a combined 10.1 innings with just two runs allowed. We appreciate the hard work, fellas.

Cleveland and Chicago, who are battling for both the American League Central crown and the third Wild Card spot, had strong weekend series as well. Cleveland swept the Swingin’ A’s at home, moving to 81-75 on the year, while the White Sox took two of the final three games of their four games series at home against Detroit, going to 80-76 on the season.

The success of Cleveland and the White Sox have pretty much eliminated the Wild Card as a path to the playoffs for the Rangers. The Rays have almost sewed up the American League East, and the Yankees (89-66) and the Red Sox (84-72) have largely sewn up the top two Wild Card seeds. Fangraphs gives all three of those teams a 100% chance of making the playoffs, even though the Red Sox haven’t technically mathematically clinched a postseason spot yet.

The third Wild Card spot is currently held by the White Sox, who are two games ahead of the Rangers, though they have the tiebreaker over Texas, making it effectively a three game lead. For the Rangers to claim the third Wild Card spot, they would have to be three games better than either the White Sox or the Guardians over the final six games, while losing at least one more game than the Astros. That’s mathematically possible, but not likely.

Fangraphs’ playoff odds gives the Guardians a 62.8% chance of winning the division and a 34.9% chance of earning a Wild Card berth, while the ChiSox are at 37.2% and 58.7%, respectively. Fangraphs has the winner of the Central having a 97.1% chance of earning a first round bye, so both teams have something to play for, since the division winner gets a few days to rest and arrange their pitching staff while the second place team will spend Tuesday, Wednesday and (if necessary) Thursday of next week playing in Arlington or Houston to advance to the Divisional Series.

We said Friday morning that whoever lost the Rangers/Jays series would likely be in need of a miracle to make the postseason. That’s where the Jays find themselves now, at 77-79, three games back of White Sox for the third Wild Card spot, and tied with the Astros. The Jays lost their season series to the ChiSox, split their season series with the Astros, and won their series against the Guardians, so Toronto needs to have a great final week and hope that either Chicago or the Guardians collapse.

Currently, Fangraphs gives the Blue Jays a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs. The only American League teams not eliminated that have lower odds are the Orioles and Mariners, each at 0.1%.

So, long tail/black swan outcomes notwithstanding, the Rangers’ task for the final week of the season is straightforward. Win more games than the Astros in the final week, and Texas wins the division and most likely hosts the Guardians or White Sox next week. Win fewer games that the Astros in the final week, and Texas almost certainly is sitting at home wondering what if.

Among the A.L. contenders, the Orioles and Jays start a three game series on Monday, and are off on Thursday before their final three games on Friday through Sunday. Every other A.L. contender is off today and then plays six in a row through the end of the season.

The Rangers have a three game series against the Mets at home on Tuesday and Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon, then go to Minnesota for games Friday night and Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

The Astros play Tuesday and Wednesday evening in Seattle, Thursday, Friday and Saturday night in Sacramento, and then Sunday afternoon in Sacramento. The night games are West Coast night games, so all the Rangers’ games will be in the late innings or over when Houston plays this week except on Sunday, when every plays at the same time.

The Mets have lefty Sean Manaea (4.74 ERA/4.54 FIP in 17 starts and 14 relief appearances this year) going on Tuesday, righty Nolan McLean (3.18 ERA/3.65 FIP in 30 starts) on Wednesday, and rookie lefty Zac Thornton (3.40 ERA/4.50 FIP in 14 starts) on Thursday. McLean is the most difficult matchup for the Rangers — he has a 2.62 ERA in 65.1 innings over 11 starts in the second half, and has allowed more than two earned runs in a start just twice since the beginning of July. This is also the most innings he’s pitched in a season in his career, and the Mets may be cautious in regards to how far they push him in what would be his final appearance of the year.

The Rangers have TBD as their starters for the Mets series. My guess is that the plan is to have Nathan Eovaldi start Tuesday. That would set him up to pitch the season finale on regular rest, health allowing, and the Rangers also will have a full, rested pen after Monday’s off day if Eovaldi is limited to 70 or so pitches, having not thrown more than 46 in an appearance since being activated. My guess is that some combination of MacKenzie Gore and Kumar Rocker go Wednesday and Thursday — with Eovaldi potentially limited as far as how deep into the game he can go, the Wednesday starter may be whichever of the pair they think can go the longest. For most of the season, Gore has been able to eat innings, even if he’s not effective, but he has gone 4 innings or less in four of his last five starts and is battling the shoulder/back spasms that shelved him early in his last outing. Rocker has gone five or fewer in seven or his last eight outings, and is well past the most innings he’s ever pitched in his career.

(UPDATE — The Rangers have now announced that MacKenzie Gore will be starting the opener against the Mets on Tuesday.)

The Twins have TBDs as their starters for the Rangers series. Lefty Zebby Matthews is pitching in the series opener against the Giants today, and so would seem likely to start either Saturday or Sunday. Righthander Taj Bradley is going Tuesday against San Francisco, and could make the start on Sunday, but if he does, it would likely be a short outing, as he’s already passed his major league career highs in starts (31 after Tuesday’s start) and innings (172.1 before Tuesday’s start). Joe Ryan made his last start on Saturday, which would put him on schedule to start Friday against the Rangers. Righthander Dean Kremer (4.97 ERA/4.86 FIP in 16 starts this year), acquired from the Orioles at the deadline, started for Minnesota on Sunday and would seem likely to start Saturday.

As for the Rangers, if Jacob deGrom goes on regular rest, he’d start the opener in Minnesota on Friday. If the Rangers opt to give him an extra day of rest due to his groin, he could go Saturday, but that would mean that if the Rangers make the playoffs and play in the Wild Card Round, he’d go on regular rest in a potential Game Three, which is only played if the first two games are split. That means its possible the Rangers would lose the first two games without deGrom going at all, opening the organization up to second-guessing.

If Eovaldi is able to go on Tuesday without problems, then he would presumably start on Sunday if the game matters. If the Rangers are out of the playoff race by Sunday, there’s no reason to push him, and if the Rangers have already clinched by Sunday, you’d save Eovaldi to go on Tuesday in Game One of the Wild Card Series.

With Cal Quantrill on the injured list, the big question for the Rangers is who would start in on Friday or Saturday in Minnesota — whichever game deGrom doesn’t start. Cody Bradford would seem to be the best choice for the other game, with Jordan Montgomery available for length behind him. However, the Rangers could slot Bradford into one of the two games against the Mets, and push back Rocker or Gore. That would especially make sense if Gore needs additional recovery time.

The good news as far as the bullpen goes is that Peyton Gray appears likely to be activated for the Mets’ series, after throwing a bullpen over the weekend. Gray would likely replace Winston Santos, who was brought up when Quantrill went on the injured list. Gray was a 7th/8th inning guy for Skip Schumaker before going on the i.l., and given the state of the rest of the pen, would likely be put right back into that mix.

The Rangers could also churn some of the low-leverage arms in the pen as needed — Ben Peoples is eligible to be recalled on Wednesday, and Gavin Collyer can be recalled at any point, so if Adam Macko, for example, gets used for a couple of innings and they want a fresh arm, one of them could be pulled up and Macko sent down. The Rangers could also, I believe, send down Cody Bradford, who has options, if and when he makes his next start or lengthy appearance out of the pen, and bring up Peoples or Collyer, or purchase the contract of a Joe Ross or a John King just to have an arm to feed to the wolves in the pen, if needed.

The Astros have Cristian Javier going up against Logan Gilbert on Tuesday, followed by TBD against George Kirby. The Astros went with Ethan Pecko as their bulk guy last week after Javier’s start, then Peter Lambert. I would think they would have Lambert come back on regular rest against Kirby in Seattle on Wednesday, but that remains to be seen. Regardless, those pitching matchups have to be encouraging for us Rangers fans.

The A’s/Astros series is TBD for all four games currently. If Lambert goes on Wednesday, that would mean Hayden Wesneski would likely go in the opener in Sacramento, and Javier in the finale. The good news for the Rangers is that Hunter Brown — easily the Astros’ best starter this year — pitched on Sunday, so while he will be starting either Friday or Saturday in Sacramento, he’ll only be going in one game, and won’t be facing Seattle.

Man, I’m nervous. And excited. And nervous. This is exciting stuff.

And at the end of the day, if the Rangers win out, they get in. Let’s send positive vibes into the universe for that to happen, and then we don’t have to worry about all the rest of this.

Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman has returned to Chicago a day after being hit in the face by a foul ball while standing in front of the on-deck circle during a road game against the Cincinnati Reds.

Bregman shared that information — as well as a photo that appears to show that his left eye remains swollen shut — Monday morning on his Instagram Stories.

“Back in Chicago,” wrote Bregman, who also appeared to have a cut and bruising near his left cheekbone where the ball off teammate Michael Busch’s bat made contact during the fourth inning of the Cubs’ 9-1 victory.

Read more:Is it still a rivalry? Dodgers complete sweep of woeful Giants

It was the second photo and update posted by Bregman since the gruesome injury occurred. On Sunday evening, the three-time All Star shared a photo that appeared to have been taken in the team’s clubhouse. In addition to his eye being swollen shut and cheek cut, Bregman also has gauze inserted in his left nostril, where some bleeding had occurred.

“Thanks for the messages yall,” Bregman wrote. “I’ll be back.”

Before the incident occurred, Bregman hit a run-scoring single in the first inning and walked and eventually scored in the third. He was standing several feet in front of the on-deck circle when Busch fouled off a pitch by Cincinnati’s Luis Mey on a checked swing.

Read more:Dodger Stadium has a botanic garden tour. Meet the man entrusted with making it a draw

Bregman lost his bat but maintained his footing as the ball struck him. He covered his face with his left hand and was able to jog toward the Cubs dugout, where a trainer helped him down the steps and into the clubhouse. The 11-year veteran was taken to a hospital for testing.

“It’s a terrible, terrible accident,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said after the game. “We hope he’s OK.”

Bregman is batting .262 with 26 home runs and 89 RBIs in his first season with the Cubs. He is probably best known to Los Angeles fans as a member of the Houston Astros team that defeated the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series and were later found by MLB to have illegally used technology to steal signs during that season. Bregman and the Astros also won the 2022 World Series.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Get the best, most interesting and strangest stories of the day from the L.A. sports scene and beyond from our newsletter The Sports Report.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

On August 22nd, during a divisional game between the Yankees and Blue Jays the YES Network invited to the booth a special guest: the retired slugger Cecil Fielder. Fielder had history with both franchises—he debuted as a member of the Blue Jays, and then later in his career came aboard with the Yankees after becoming a star, helping them win a championship in 1996.

Despite a brief detour in which he expressed befuddlement with modern hitting, Fielder’s conversation with Michael Kay and former teammate Paul O’Neill was ultimately a pleasant one. He spoke reverently about the 1996 team he helped bring to championship glory. “I didn’t have to do much; I just had to fit in,” he said. “All I had to do was come here and just play, and that’s what we did. We just went out, and if we play today we win today.”

Cecil Grant Fielder
Born: September 21, 1963 (Los Angeles, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 1996-97

Fielder grew up in La Puente, outside Los Angeles, and was so dominant an athlete during his youth that opposing parents continually accused his parents, Edson and Tina Fielder, of faking Cecil’s age. A three-sport star at Nogales High School, he enjoyed basketball more than football and baseball but chose to pursue baseball because he didn’t think his bulky frame would allow him to succeed at the point guard position he played. Concerns about his size, though, would follow him throughout the early portions of his budding baseball career.

After the Orioles took a flyer on him out of high school, Fielder played at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas—but only for one season. His college coach wanted him to lose a whopping 50 pounds; he quit the program two games into his sophomore year. Shortly afterward, in June of 1982, the Royals selected him in the supplemental draft—but they too had their doubts about Fielder long-term. In 1983 Kansas City traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays for veteran outfielder Leon Roberts.

Fielder made his MLB debut in the second half of 1985, the Jays’ first playoff season after a slow build. Over the next four seasons, he flashed the tantalizing power he was already known for, but couldn’t establish himself as a regular on a Toronto team which was perennially gunning for the World Series. So, Cecil went to Japan.

With Hanshin in 1989, Fielder overcame a sluggish start to become a fan favorite, wowing crowds with his prodigious pop. He hit 38 home runs and slugged .628 in his lone NPB season, earning some interest from a few MLB clubs. The Tigers brought him aboard on a two-year, $3 million pact, and were immediately rewarded, as Fielder tore the cover off the ball in a legendary 1990 season, once even demolishing a Dave Stewart pitch out of Tiger Stadium entirely. That was the kind of power that the man they called “Big Daddy” brought to the plate. His grand finale came in the Bronx.

On October 3rd, Fielder made history by hitting his 50th home run of the season off the Yankees’ Steve Adkins in the second inning. It had been nearly three full decades since an American League player last reached the 50-homer mark (and 13 years since George Foster for the Reds). Fielder pulled it off in his first season as a true big-league starter. He went on to hit his 51st homer of the season off Alan Mills in the top of the eighth. At this point, his pursuit of history was the only compelling storyline; Detroit and New York both finished well out of the playoff picture.

The next season, the Tigers improved substantially, and Fielder clobbered another 44 homers, but it was not enough to carry them to the playoffs—they finished tied for second in a crowded AL East, seven back of Toronto. That was as close as they’d come to the postseason while Fielder was under their employ—and by 1996, Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson was gone and the Tigers were back in the basement. Indeed, it was the middle of a nearly two-decade stretch of no playoff baseball in Detroit until 2006. Well on their way to 109 losses, they shopped Fielder, who had a season and a half remaining on his deal.

The Yankees, leading comfortably in the AL East, were an obvious fit. They would be willing to take on Fielder’s big salary (he was the highest-earning player in the league in 1996), and the offense lacked a true power threat from the right side of the plate. To that point, no one had hit more homers in the ’90s than Cecil, surpassing even Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Ken Griffey Jr. So on July 31st, they got their guy, sending Rubén Sierra—who Joe Torre wanted out of the clubhouse anyway—and preseason 12th-overall Baseball America prospect Matt Drews the other way in the deal.

Fielder’s production in pinstripes in the back half of the regular season was essentially consistent to what he did in Motown. He posted a 109 OPS+ before the trade, and a 108 after the trade. He socked 13 dingers to get to 39 on the season, and typically sat between O’Neill and Tino Martinez in the order. Despite Fielder’s quality play, the Yanks oddly scuffled to a 13-17 record in August before rebounding with a 16-11 September to clinch the AL East, their first division title in 15 years.

In the Yankees’ ensuing postseason run, Fielder made an immediate impact, hitting a home run in a 12-inning Game 2 win over Texas in the Bronx to even the ALDS. He added two more hits and RBI in Game 4 as the Bombers punched their ticket to the ALCS against the division rival Orioles.

Fielder provided quality over quantity in that five-game set. While he only grabbed three hits against Baltimore, one was a two-run homer against Mike Mussina in Game 2 which gave the Yankees some valuable insurance runs in a 5-2 victory. Then in the decisive Game 5, Fielder’s three-run jack was the first of back-to-back jacks with fellow powerhouse Darryl Strawberry.

It was easy to wonder whether that effort might be for naught when the Yankees fell behind the Braves two games to none to start the World Series as the series shifted to Atlanta. But the Bombers rallied heroically, first when David Cone outdueled Tom Glavine in a 5-3 win in Game 3, then when they overcame a 6-0 deficit to win Game 4 8-6 in extra innings. Fielder got the rally started with a two-run single to put the Yankees on the board. With no DH for the games at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, Torre had been tasked with a tough decision of whether to play Fielder or Martinez at first base. With Tino slumping, Torre had gone with Fielder; it was the right call.

With the series tied back up, it was Fielder’s RBI double off an otherwise-pristine John Smoltz in the fourth inning of Game 5 which provided the only run of the entire night—the Yankees pitching, led by Andy Pettitte, shut down the Braves and allowed New York to take control of the Fall Classic once and for all.

Fielder grabbed one last knock in Game 6, his ninth of the series, as the Yankees won 3-2 to clinch their 23rd championship.

Fielder stuck around in 1997, and remained a regular in the lineup until a thumb injury sidelined him in mid-July. He returned a few months later in time for the end of the regular season, but saw a reduced role in the playoffs. He only appeared in two games in the Division Series and picked up one hit as the Yankees bowed out to Cleveland. Fielder’s power had declined—across the full year, he only managed to hit 13 homers, the same number he had hit after the trade the previous season. His slugging percentage was .410, the lowest he’d posted in a full season to that point.

The Yankees, retooling their lineup with the additions of Chuck Knoblauch, Scott Brosius, and Chili Davis, let Fielder walk in free agency at year’s end. He signed with the Angels, and put together a solid first half near his hometown before struggling mightily after the All-Star Break. In August, the Angels released him—undeterred, he quickly joined up with Cleveland for one last opportunity to reach the postseason. But his steep decline continued there, and the AL Central champs cut bait after 14 games. Unable to catch on with Toronto the following spring, Fielder retired in 1999 with 319 career home runs: the exact total his son Prince would rack up in his own terrific career.

Cecil’s retirement was far from easy—he and Prince were estranged for a time and a purported gambling habit led to the collapse of his marriage. But by the time he joined the YES booth this August, he had repaired his relationship with Prince, remarried, and was able to reminisce about the good times with O’Neill, with whom he captured championship glory 30 years ago.

Happy birthday, Cecil.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Tonight the Jays start their second-to-last series of the season. Six games remain, with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs, but math occasionally lies. But a series sweep would make things a little more interesting.

Anyway, they have three games in Baltimore:

• Tonight, 6:35 start time: Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65) vs. Shance Baz (6-15, 4.11).
• Tuesday, 6:35 start time: Max Scherzer (3-8, 6.07) vs. Chris Bassitt (8-5, 4.64).
• Wednesday, 6:35 start time: TBD vs. TBD.

Trey’s last rehab start wasn’t exactly something to build our confidence, but then I doubt there is a direct correlation between rehab starts and the major league return.

Rain is in the forecast for Baltimore this week, but the league will get the games in no matter what it takes. There isn’t time to reschedule.

The Orioles are two games back of the Jays, not quite officially eliminated, but they likely will be in the next couple of days.

The Orioles rank sixth in the AL in runs/game at 4.44 (the Jays are second-to-last at 4.01). They are 11th in runs allowed per game at 4.64 (the Jays are sixth at 4.30).

The Orioles have some excellent batters and fielders:

• Pete Alonso: .264/.358/.500 with 38 home runs, a league-leading 105 RBI, 78 walks and 163 RBI for a 4.3 bWAR.
• Gunnar Henderson: .223/.308/.397 with 23 home runs, 65 walks and 151 strikeouts, 3.0 bWAR. Outs Above Average has him at a +2, but I think his defence is better than that.
• Colton Cowser: .224/.313/.367 with 13 home runs, 43 walks and 118 strikeouts for a 2.4 bWAR. Outs above average have him at a +7 in center field.
• Samuel Basallo: .223/.292/.408 with 18 home runs, 32 walks and 104 strikeouts for a 1.7 bWAR. He’s just 21, has a great arm behind the plate, throwing out 26.2% of basesteals (league average is 22.7).

The bullpen isn’t their strong point:

• Andrew Kittredge: 3.61 ERA, 10 saves, 5 blown saves, 9 holds. Batters are hitting .274/.311/.416 against him.
• Rico Garcia: 3.18 ERA, 9 saves, 6 blown saves, 18 holds. Batters are hitting .185/.261/.343 against him.
• Anthony Nunez: 3.90, 3 saves, 3 blown saves, 7 holds. Batters are hitting .204/.304/.322 against him.
• Grant Wolfram: 4.35, 1 save, 1 blown, 13 holds. Batters are hitting .261/.327/.397 against him. He’s a lefty, but lefties are hitting .284/.348/.382 against him.
• Yennier Cano: 3.00, 3 saves, 2 blown, 13 holds. Batters are hitting .214/.273/.280 against him.

They also have former Jays lefty Josh Walker in the pen. He has a 1.57 ERA in 29 games.

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to wrap up their last road trip of the 2026 regular season this week, as they’ll visit the Philadelphia Phillies for three games. A pair of playoff teams (barring a final week collapse by Philadelphia), the Brewers sit at 98-58 with the best record in baseball, while the Phillies are 86-70 and currently sit in the final NL Wild Card spot, four games ahead of the D-backs with six games to go. Last time these teams met, back in June, the Brewers took two of three in Milwaukee with a pair of shutouts.

The Brewers injured list currently includes relievers Grant Anderson (on rehab assignment), Bryse Wilson (on rehab assignment), Brian Fitzpatrick (out for season), and Angel Zerpa (out for season). They’re also without starters Quinn Priester (out for season) and Brandon Woodruff (potential late postseason return).

Philadelphia is without pitchers Jesús Luzardo (aiming for postseason return), Caleb Kilian (out for season), and Brad Keller (out for season). Outfielders Johan Rojas and Adolis García are also out for the year. Right-hander Jonathan Bowlan is also considered day to day with a mild groin strain.

Jake Bauers and Jackson Chourio lead the way for Milwaukee’s offense, with Brice Turang a homer and a steal away from a 20-20 season. William Contreras has also been a key producer over the last month or so, and Joey Ortiz has been a leader offensively in the second half. Andrew Vaughn, Garrett Mitchell, Cooper Pratt, Luis Lara, and Christian Yelich have also been regular producers, with Gary Sánchez, David Hamilton, Sal Frelick, and Bo Naylor serving as depth. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .258/.341/.403 (.744 OPS ranks fourth), with 149 homers (tied for 28th), 802 runs scored (second), and 156 steals (fifth).

Kyle Schwarber is tied for the major league lead with 45 homers this season, driving in 95 and also walking 101 times, just behind Bryce Harper’s 104. Harper has slugged 28 homers, while Trea Turner is a homer away from a 20-20 season (19 homers, 21 steals), and Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, and Bryson Stott also have double-digit homers. Deadline acquisition Luis Arraez is hitting “just” .285 since joining Philadelphia, and Justin Crawford rounds out the usual starters. Bryan De La Cruz, Derek Hill, Garrett Stubbs, Edmundo Sosa, and Rafael Marchán round out the bench. As a team, the Phillies are hitting .241/.312/.397 (.709 OPS ranks 22nd), with 179 homers (tied for 14th), 697 runs scored (tied for 13th), and 102 steals (15th).

Milwaukee’s bullpen is anchored by closer Trevor Megill, setup man Abner Uribe, and high-leverage arms in Aaron Ashby, Chad Patrick, and DL Hall. Ashby’s 3.27 ERA is actually the worst of that group, while Megill leads the team with 29 saves this year. Shane Drohan has rejoined the bullpen after working as a starter for most of the year, as has the struggling Kyle Harrison. Deadline acquisitions JoJo Romero and Antonio Senzatela are also in the ‘pen, as is Colton Gordon, who hasn’t yet made an appearance with Milwaukee (more on him later). As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.54 team ERA (second) including a 3.64 starter ERA (fifth) and a 3.41 bullpen ERA (fourth). They’ve struck out 1,492 batters (second) over 1,393 2/3 innings.

José Alvarado leads Philadelphia with 65 appearances, though his 5.02 ERA over 57 1/3 innings isn’t ideal. Jhoan Duran is the closer, as he’s 32-for-34 in save opportunities, turning in a 1.76 ERA and 79 strikeouts over 56 1/3 innings. The aforementioned Bowlan (3.36 over 56 1/3 IP), Tim Mayza (3.46 ERA over 65 IP), and Chase Shugart (4.03 ERA over 51 1/3 IP) all play key roles, while deadline pickup Brooks Raley (8.71 ERA over 10 1/3 IP) has struggled. Tanner Banks (6.82 ERA over 33 IP) and Max Lazar (5.63 ERA over 8 IP) have also had a rough go, while Alex McFarlane (2.35 ERA over 15 1/3 IP) has been solid. As a staff, the Phillies have a 4.00 team ERA (11th) including a 3.79 starter ERA (seventh) and a 4.34 bullpen ERA (21st). They’ve struck out 1,510 batters (first) over 1,384 1/3 innings.

Probable Pitchers

Tuesday, September 22 @ 5:40 p.m.: RHP Dustin May (7-9, 4.61 ERA, 3.50 FIP) vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (13-5, 2.99 ERA, 3.47 FIP)

May has had an up-and-down tenure in Milwaukee, with several strong starts and several short ones. After working six scoreless innings against the Reds on September 11, he went just 2 1/3 innings against the Orioles on Friday, allowing three runs on six hits, a walk, and a hit batter while striking out four, needing 70 pitches to do so. He’ll go on short rest after the shortened start, looking to bounce back against Philadelphia. May has faced 28 teams in his career, but the Phillies are not one of them (the other is Toronto).

Wheeler, 36, was nearly a Brewer as the return from the Mets in the Carlos Gomez trade, but that never came to fruition as Gomez ultimately headed to Houston. He remains one of the most consistent starters in the majors, as he’s 13-5 with a 2.99 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and 177 strikeouts over 150 1/3 innings this year. He’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last four outings against the Angels, Braves, Astros, and Nationals, totaling 26 innings with three earned runs and 29 strikeouts. The veteran righty has made 11 career starts against Milwaukee, and he’s 5-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 78 strikeouts across 71 innings.

Wednesday, September 23 @ 5:40 p.m.: RHP Logan Henderson (10-3, 2.51 ERA, 3.30 FIP) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (7-10, 4.49 ERA, 4.78 FIP)

Henderson, who has quickly developed into Milwaukee’s No. 2 starter, has had a great rookie season, going 10-3 with a 2.51 ERA, 3.30 FIP, and 107 strikeouts across 93 1/3 innings. He’s coming off what he’d probably consider a “disappointing” start against the Pirates, going five innings with three runs allowed (tying a career-high mark) and eight strikeouts in a no-decision. This marks Henderson’s first career appearance against Philadelphia.

Nola, 33, is another veteran right-hander, having spent all 12 seasons of his career in Philadelphia. Nola is having a mediocre year, with a 7-10 record, 4.49 ERA, 4.78 FIP, and 169 strikeouts over 168 1/3 innings. He’s had trouble with the long ball, allowing an MLB-worst 34 homers this season. He’s looked better over his last several outings, though, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts, totaling 48 1/3 innings with a 1.86 ERA and 48 strikeouts. Nola has made 16 career starts against Milwaukee, going 7-3 with a 3.22 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 95 innings. That includes a no-decision back in June, when he went 4 2/3 innings, allowing three runs and striking out three.

Thursday, September 24 @ 5:05 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD

Neither team has announced a starter for Thursday’s series finale, and it’s hard to predict Milwaukee’s starter due to the recent shuffling e.g., Dustin May and Kyle Harrison. This seems like the perfect opportunity for Colton Gordon, who the Brewers acquired alongside Lance McCullers Jr. in exchange for Jadyn Fielder back in July. Gordon, 27, hasn’t yet appeared in the majors with Milwaukee, but he’s 6-4 with a 5.95 ERA and 83 strikeouts over 95 1/3 innings in MLB with the Astros. He’s made 10 starts with Triple-A Nashville since being acquired, going 1-5 with a 4.67 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 54 innings. The former eighth-round pick has made one career start against Philadelphia, which came last June while with Houston. He went five scoreless innings, striking out four to pick up the win.

Philadelphia will likely go with José Urquidy as the “bulk arm” in this game, as the last turn through the rotation, left-hander Tim Mayza opened the first inning before turning it over to the right-hander. Urquidy, 31, started the season with the Pirates and also spent time with the White Sox before being claimed off waivers by Philadelphia on Thursday. He’s made 12 appearances (one start) this year, totaling 33 2/3 innings with a 4.54 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and 27 strikeouts. In Friday’s loss to the Mets, he worked 4 2/3 innings, allowing no runs on five hits and six strikeouts. Urquidy has faced 26 teams in his career, but the Brewers are not one of them.

How to Watch & Listen

Tuesday, September 22: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Wednesday, September 23: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Thursday, September 24: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Prediction

The Phillies have a lot more to play for at this point, as they’re fighting with the Cubs and Padres for home-field advantage in the NL Wild Card Series (whereas the Brewers are just fighting with the Dodgers for the top overall seed). Philadelphia hasn’t been consistent recently, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers sneak away with two out of three.