After making a couple trades in early December, the Nationals have been pretty quiet. There have been some smaller signings and a couple waiver claims, but no big moves. That has led some to wonder whether the Nats are done with their major moves. However, Paul Toboni indicated that there will be more activity coming.
In a radio interview, Toboni said the team is not set for Spring Training yet. That is music to the ears of Nationals fans. Even for a team with low expectations, there are some glaring holes on the roster. Most notably, first base and the bullpen are very unsettled. The Nats could also use more rotation help, especially if MacKenzie Gore gets traded.
It is reassuring to hear that Toboni is not done. If there are more moves to make, what would some realistic targets be though? Well, one guy that has made a ton of sense all offseason is Rhys Hoskins. The Nats desperately need right handed power, and Hoskins provides that. He has five 25-homer seasons in his career and is also a very patient hitter.
Hoskins only played 90 games last year, but he hit 12 homers and posted a solid .748 OPS. The Nats will be able to sign him to a fairly cheap one-year deal as well. He checks a lot of boxes with his power, leadership and ability to get on base. There are other older options like Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana, but I think Hoskins has more in the tank.
Another position the Nats could explore is the relief market. All of the top guys are off the board now, but there are some interesting names out there. Seranthony Dominguez, Jalen Beeks and Michael Kopech are three options that intrigue me. Dominguez would be the most expensive, but he has closer stuff and could be a strong trade chip at the deadline.
While the Nats have bodies in the rotation, they could use some more reliability. Most of the mid-tier free agent starters are still available. A reunion with Max Scherzer would warm my heart, but he is injury prone at this point in his career. If the Nats wanted to spend more money while not breaking the bank, guys like Zack Littell or Lucas Giolito would make sense.
Interestingly, Toboni also said that the Nats continue to have trade conversations with other teams. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, but it is nice that he is working the phones. MacKenzie Gore is the most obvious trade candidate, but I wonder if there could be any last minute surprises.
"We're an attractive landing spot for folks who want to compete."
Are the #Nationals planning to make more moves this offseason? 👀
— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) January 18, 2026
We did not expect the Jose A. Ferrer or Jake Bennett trades when they happened. Could Toboni have one more trick up his sleeve? At this point, I would be very surprised if CJ Abrams was traded. There was some buzz around his name earlier this offseason, but that has really died down. Jacob Young or Luis Garcia Jr. are guys I would not be totally stunned to see traded.
I am less confident that a MacKenzie Gore trade happens than I was earlier this offseason. However, it is clearly still on the table. A lot of pitching needy teams have made their big moves already, but there are still some suitors for Gore. The Giants, the A’s and the Mets are three teams that come to mind. All of them have solid farm systems and need frontline pitching.
Toboni seems content with the idea of holding on to Gore if the right offer does not come. Personally, I would have a bit more urgency to move him, but I understand where he is coming from. If Gore makes some adjustments and has a big first half, his value could be even higher. However, if he gets hurt or struggles, his value could really crater.
Given the prices for starters this offseason, I would cash in, but I do not know the offers Toboni is getting. I would assume there have been competitive packages, but none that have blown Toboni away. The new front office has my trust, but a Gore trade would be my preference.
Unless the Nats trade Gore, I don’t think any crazy moves are coming. However, there will be more bodies coming through the door. Rhys Hoskins just makes so much sense to me. Maybe I am just talking myself into it, but I think that is a move that will happen. I also think that the Nats will add a pitcher or two into the fold.
There will also be more minor league free agent deals. Yesterday, they picked up Trevor Gott. With how much organizational depth they lost this offseason, we are likely to see more moves like that. We could also see another waiver claim or two. One thing is clear though, the Washington Nationals are not done yet.
Former San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt was quoted at length in a story by Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post. Shildt tries to articulate why he walked away from his managerial job in San Diego and why it seemed that he so quickly transitioned into his new role in the Baltimore Orioles organization. Bob Melvin, who held the manager position with the Padres prior to Shildt, talked about how he looked across the field and longed to be in the dugout with the San Francisco Giants and it seems that Shildt was also looking for more as early as the middle of the 2025 season.
Padres News:
Randy Vasquez has increased his numbers in each of his first two seasons with the San Diego Padres. He has been used more as a sixth man in the rotation during that time, but free agency and injuries have resulted in Vasquez getting a chance to play a significant role in the Padres’ rotation in 2026. He needs to show manager Craig Stammen and pitching coach Ruben Niebla that he is ready to take earn the spot and handle the challenge that comes from the pressure of being a starter in MLB.
The Boston Red Sox missed on free agent catchers J.T. Realmuto and Victor Caratini, but are reportedly still looking for ways to improve the catching position in Boston.
Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran and St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan have each been rumored in various trades throughout the offseason. The Kansas City Royals are apparently no longer pursuing either player and a move for either one is considered “increasingly unlikely.”
The Cardinals have spent much of the offseason trading away pieces of their team but according to president of baseball operation Chaim Bloom, the team could add a right-handed outfielder. Seems odd considering St. Louis traded away Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado who were both right-handed hitters.
A lot of emotions came down the pike when it was reported that Kyle Tucker agreed to what is being touted as a four year, 240 million dollars contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Much of the emotional response could be explained through sticker shock. I don’t think anyone dreamed that Tucker was a 60 million AAV player. I’m sure the Toronto Blue Jays felt they were well within range when they reportedly offered him ten years and 350 million dollars.
So, that is certainly part of our collective emotional response. The second part of that response comes from the fact that it is the Dodgers. I have tried really hard in my life not to hate anyone and for the most part I have succeeded, but sports hate is definitely a thing and the Dodgers are high on that list. It’s not only about success. It is about the whining. However, that’s a different topic for a different day. We could get into the whys and what fors at that time, but I think most of Astros nation is on the same page.
In my childhood, it was the New York Yankees existing as the evil empire. The irony is that they weren’t successful until I was in my twenties. Still, there is the appearance of inevitably. That is what stings days after the news. I can accept a man getting his pay day. Tucker and his agent structured this deal as brilliantly as possible with much of it coming upfront in the form of a signing bonus. So, when labor strife hits following the season, he will have pocketed a good portion of that contract. So, the anger doesn’t sit on Tucker. It sits on the Dodgers and what the league is allowing them to do.
Spotrac.com projects that the Dodgers 2026 payroll will equal 429.9 million dollars in average annual value. The New York Mets are second with 305 million. The Astros are still existing under the competitive balance tax. Six teams are currently above it. It should be noted that three of those six teams are in the AL East. Seven teams are currently below 100 million dollars at the moment. We have not seen this kind of financial disparity for some time.
It would be wrong to say we have never seen it. The Yankees dominated the sport between 1920 and 1964. People often forget the other half of that equation. The Philadelphia Phillies averaged 100 losses a season between 1920 and 1940. Imagine losing 100 games every year for 20 years. What happens to those fanbases? We aren’t quite there, but we are getting closer. The Colorado Rockies have lost 100 or more games three seasons in a row and have averaged 100 losses over the last five. They are the most extreme examples, but everyone can point to teams like the Pirates, Athletics, Nationals, Marlins, and Royals as cities that go long periods of time between competitive teams.
The core of the problem
This is usually where fans start chanting for a salary cap. The problem isn’t that simple. When you look at the salary structures in the NBA and NFL you see that a core part of the process is that both the union and owners know what is in the pot. Negotiating is easier from that point. Owners and players haggle over what percentage the players will get from the pie. In both leagues that tends to cover between 50 and 55 percent of revenues. Most of the negotiations come down to exactly how those percentages will be dolled out.
The core of the problem in MLB is that the owners have never opened their books. We don’t know exactly what the revenues are. We are forced to guess based on fragments of information we get from different sources. If we don’t know then the players also don’t know. That lack of trust clouds any and all negotiations. It prevents the players from agreeing to anything that will potentially restrain spending.
The sum total of salaries according to Spotrac is around 5.3 billion dollars. One can easily guess it will push to around 5.5 billion once Spring Training begins. So, the core of the issue is how players and owners can equitably split that pie. If you limit the upper end then you must do something about the lower end. That’s easier said than done.
Raise the floor
Unfortunately, without knowing total revenues we are left guessing. Even if we agreed that the players deserve 50 percent of revenues we would be left wondering 50 percent of what exactly. However, it seems reasonable to ask the players to keep their overall salary level or slightly increase it in lieu of rolling it back. The problem isn’t the level of player salaries, but how they are being distributed. It is unsustainable for one team to spend 400 million while other teams are spending under 100.
So, the goal is not to limit overall salaries, but to bring the bottom and the top closer together. That would require a salary floor. The question is how to get there. It is not a simple magic wand of saying you have to spend 150 million or 200 million dollars. There is a question of how to get teams the revenue to spend that kind of money. There is also the question of other expenditures teams make. The Rockies famously do not spend money on technology for scouting purposes. Some teams invest more money in international scouting than others. A true cap and floor would have to include total baseball related expenditures.
We are probably looking at a sliding structure similar to what we currently see with the competitive balance tax. Penalties escalate with each season teams exceed the tax. The same could be applied at the bottom. For instance, the St. Louis Cardinals have fallen below the 100 million mark because they have shed a ton of payroll this offseason. That’s different than teams like the Pirates who seemingly live there. Those penalties should reflect that.
Tying up loose ends
That battle will be the headliner for the coming negotiation, but there are other issues as well. The NBA restricts individual salaries. The NFL doesn’t. Is 60 million AAV too much for a player? Heck, Shohei Ohtani is getting 70 million. Naturally, some of their salaries are deferred which is another major concern. We cannot continue where the Dodgers get to skate by some of their tax liabilities by kicking the can down the road. If they want to defer payment to players that is between them and the player, but they should be on the hook for the whole value of the contract.
The other issue will likely involve service time. This is an area where the owners can offer significant change to get concessions from the players. In the NFL and NBA, players get to free agency faster. It is four or five years in the NFL. It is four in the NBA. Moving the service time clock up in baseball would definitely suit the players. A part of the issue is that baseball players have a minor league portion of their careers. Service time could be altered to include that time. That would keep teams from stashing players in the minors to delay their service clock. Instead of making it a hard and fast four seasons you could make it seven total from the date of the draft or signing. Therefore, teams might be more incentivized to promote players when they are ready.
These are all just ideas that are banging around our heads. I am open to any suggestions as to how this situation can change. What isn’t negotiable is business as usual. Whether a Dodgers World Series is actually inevitable is certainly debatable. It feels inevitable and that is all we need to know. If it feels inevitable then fan interest dwindles. If fan interest dwindles then revenues dwindle. That’s obviously bad for everyone involved.
Happy Monday, everyone! The past few days have stoked the flames on the offseason hot stove into a fever pitch (no pun intended, I promise). With the Mets losing out on signing Kyle Tucker, and the Dodgers once again proving they’ll spend whatever it takes to become the next MLB dynasty, we’re seeing a lot of high-priced short-term deals making the rounds. The Mets pivoted, signing Bo Bichette, and it’s making folks wonder what this means for free agency deals and if we’re seeing the new normal in terms of shying away from the longer-term deals.
It remains to be seen, but there’s plenty more juicy tidbits in today’s news breakdown, so let’s just jump right into it.
We have signed the following international amateur free agents:
C Manuel Bolivar (Venezuela, pictured below) C Roman Silgado (Venezuela) IF Eduardo Tusen (Dominican Republic) SS Oscar Tineo (Venezuela) CF Douglas Olivo (Venezuela) OF Diego Orro (Venezuela) CF Randy Santana… pic.twitter.com/p9C8fqucZN
An interesting look at the financial side of running a baseball team.
The Atlanta Braves financial statements are publicly available and serve as a general guide for understanding the business of baseball. Any good accountant can move some decimals here and there, but these are a good starting ground.
With the luxury tax, the Dodgers will be paying $126 million a season for Tucker (assuming no deferrals). That's more than 11 teams' entire payrolls. This is absurd.https://t.co/uwe3cLpqXw
Inevitably with a series such as this one, you’ll find one or two less notorious names to properly fill a list. So in searching for a former Yankee born on January 19th, we ended up with Fernando Seguignol as the chosen player. If you remember his short period with the Yankees, cheers to you for a great memory considering he had all of one major-league hit in his entire semi-interrupted career in pinstripes. That’s still one more than 99.99 percent of us, though.
Fernando Alfredo Seguignol Born: January 19, 1975 (Bocas del Toro, Panama) Yankees Tenure: 2003 (also in minors 1993-94)
Three years after the Yankees signed the most famous Panamanian in baseball history, they came to terms with his countryman, Fernando Seguignol. At the time the 18-year-old inked his contract with New York in January 1993, only 37 MLB players had ever hailed from Panama; since then, that figure has expanded to 81, including current Yankees utilityman José Caballero. Seguignol’s father, a longtime Yankees fa, and was absolutely thrilled that his son might one day play for the Bronx Bombers.
Seguignol struggled heavily in his first taste of Rookie ball in ’93, but after putting up a reasonable .767 OPS in short-season ball for Oneonta the following campaign, he raised his stock. It was enough to invoke the interest of the desperate Montreal Expos, and Seguignol was used by the Yankees just before the start of the 1995 campaign to acquire standout closer John Wetteland in a one-for-one deal with cash considerations involved.
Make no mistake: For the Expos, this was not about getting fair prospect value. The consortium of Montreal executives that owned the club informed GM Kevin Malone that he essentially had to sell off some of the best players from the outstanding 1994 club that was MLB’s best when the strike hit. It ended on April 2, 1995, and as MLB hastily organized a short spring training and a reduced 144-game schedule, the Expos executed a fire sale. Wetteland was dealt to the Yankees, Ken Hill went to Cleveland, Marquis Grissom was sent out to Atlanta, and though not traded, the Expos simply refused to offer Larry Walker a contract in arbitration; he signed with the Rockies. Credit Yankees GM Gene Michael for taking advantage of the opportunity, but those were some strange circumstances.
The Yankees had no problem trading a low-minors name for Wetteland, and while he felt hurt at the time, it honestly worked out well for Seguignol too, as he had less of an uphill climb to playing time in Montreal. Standing at six-foot-five, Seguignol had the traditional build of a power-hitting first baseman, but through the early years of his development process as an outfielder in the Expos farm system, he failed to live up to those expectations. It wasn’t until 1998 that Seguignol found his footing in Double-A Harrisburg, slugging over .600 and prompting a rapid rise through the ranks, reaching Triple-A and subsequently the majors for a rather small but quite successful first cup of tea.
Called up in September as part of an Expos team that was going nowhere and wanted to get a look at what they had in young bat, Seguignol earned his first hit as a pinch-hitter on September 10th. A day later, the 23-year-old experienced what had to be one of his most thrilling moments in the bigs, going back-to-back with future Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, easily the star of that 65-97 club.
It’s relatively telling of both the expectations the Expos had regarding Seguignol and, primarily, the lack of talent around Vlad Sr. that Montreal had their inexperienced first baseman batting fifth, right behind Guerrero, the team’s top hitter.
Despite good numbers in a short sample in 1998, Seguignol started the next year in the minors again, with Brad Fulmer as the Expos’ starting first baseman. Looking back at it, it’s difficult to justify why opportunities were so limited for Seguignol between 1999 and 2000, with him spending more time in the minors than majors, despite a decent .828 OPS in 294 PA between these two seasons and two of his 17 career homers against a prestigious name in Tom Glavine. If you want to be a bit harsher, that OPS isn’t nearly as good as it looks, considering the era (105 OPS+), and with many of those PA coming in left field instead of first base, his original position, the defensive value was virtually nonexistent. The strikeout issues were a problem, which didn’t come as much of a surprise, but the lack of pitch selection, which made for well-below-league-average walk rates, further diminished Seguignol’s floor as a big-league hitter.
Too good for Triple-A but unable to lock down a role in the big leagues, Seguignol was in that dreaded Quad-A state, and at the end of 2001, after receiving only 54 PA in the big leagues, he decided to give Japan a try. Seguignol’s strikeout woes made the trip with him however, and the power output wasn’t enough for the Orix BlueWave to justify giving him a full-time role.
Going back to where it first started, Seguignol signed with the Yankees after a short stint in Japan. Although his time with the big league club was short-lived and not particularly memorable, Seguignol’s campaign with the Yankees’ Triple-A team in Columbus was a great one.
As a 28-year-old, the Panamanian had an OPS above 1.000 and nearly won the Triple-A Triple Crown that year by hitting .341/.401/.624 with 28 homers in 106 games. Called up in September, Seguignol went 1-for-7 in the majors with no extra-base hits; his lone career big-league knock in pinstripes came in a post-clinch start on a ground-ball single against the Orioles’ Rodrigo Lopez.
Carrying over the success he had with the Yankees in Triple-A back in 2003, Seguignol returned to Japan, this time signing with the Nippon Ham Fighters. There, he immediately became one of the more dangerous bats in the NPB, hitting 44 home runs in his first season back in Japan — a new record for a switch-hitter. Although he could never quite replicate those numbers, Seguignol remained an important player for the Ham Fighters during four full seasons. Afterwards, he bounced around in Mexico, the minors, signing deals with the Rockies and Tigers without returning to the bigs, and also in the NPB again.
Returning from Japan in 2010 with the Indy ball Newark Bears, Seguignol would play his final season in 2011, featuring as one of the premier names for another Atlantic League club, the Lancaster Barnstormers. That wrapped up a near-20-year professional career. A switch-hitter who learned that trait when he was already in the minors, Seguignol couldn’t build the MLB résumé that he might’ve envisioned in the bigs. However, in Japan, he made history as one of the more fearsome switch-hitters in the history of the NPB, recording 172 homers in 767 games.
Following his playing career, Seguignol stayed involved in the baseball world. He worked for the Yomiuri Giants and the Cubs before landing a job with the Marlins as director of international operations. Hired by old teammate Derek Jeter in 2017 when the former Yankees captain got involved in Miami, Seguignol held the position until being let go in 2021. Wherever he is now, here’s hoping he has a nice 51st birthday ahead of him.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
To state the obvious: the mood in the Phillies fandom has not been overly sanguine in the past few days. The Phillies missed a chance to get better with Bo Bichette, while their rivals in Queens did not. There are still plenty of reasons to believe in the Phillies as a major contender for next year, despite that. The power is still there in the lineup. The rotation has healthy stars in Christopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola as major weapons should they recover and return to form, respectively. The bullpen may be better than last year.
But the division won’t be easy. The Mets have major questions, especially in the rotation, but Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette make for a powerful combo. The Braves haven’t quite looked like themselves for the past season or two, but they’re still a major threat. The Nationals and Marlins still seem to be a few seasons away, but they have good young talent. Does all this leave the Phillies as the favorites to win the division? Or does a disappointing offseason and an extra year of age on the lineup move someone else into the drivers seat?
Today’s question is: Do you think the Phillies are still favorites to win the National League East?
[MLB] From World Series winner to sausage meister: A visit to Byung-hyun Kim’s German restaurant – “When I was playing in the States, any time families and friends would come, I would take them out to a restaurant that I recommended. I saw the joy that people felt from having good food,” Kim said. “That’s where it all started.” He began with three sushi restaurants in San Diego – today there is only one, Umi Sushi – before he followed his teenage dream and opened a handful of burger and hot dog joints, with two of the locations inside KBO stadiums at the Gocheok Sky Dome and Changwon NC Park. “The inspiration was Gonzo’s Grill in Arizona at Chase Field,” Kim said. “I saw that and I really wanted to replicate it and have a burger joint at a baseball stadium.”
[AZ Big Media] Merrill Kelly returns to the Diamondbacks for his family – His family’s thrilled to be back in the Valley. Korean cuisine has become an occasional stop, indulged in “probably a little more than we should,” Kelly joked. “We don’t venture out much unless we have to,” he said at first. “I’m a big golfer. If I do go somewhere, at least on my own, it’s usually the golf course. “We found a couple spots that we really like. There’s a place in Mesa, Jin BBQ, [near Mekong Plaza] that we like. There’s an H Mart, which is a big Korean grocery store. It’s good to be back.”
[Dbacks.com] Marte plan unchanged in face of Bregman, Suárez signings – If you’re holding your breath on them bringing in a bona fide closer at this point, well … don’t. “Would I like to have somebody that has a clear pedigree of pitching in the eighth and ninth inning?” Hazen said. “That’s an easier answer. I’m not sure what we’ll have access to in that way. I think if we continue to build out talent in the bullpen, this bullpen is going to be good in time as we move through the season. We’re going to obviously be getting guys back as we move through the season, so I think the talent is naturally going to improve as we move through the year.”
[New Baseball Media] 2025 MLB Farm Review: Arizona Diamondbacks – There is a new #1 atop the Diamondbacks’ farm system. It’s close between Waldschmidt and Caldwell, two different outfielders. Both are fantastic at getting on base and swiping bases, Caldwell more than the former. However, Waldschmidt is a formidable power hitter, moreso than Caldwell. After that, we’ll go with Cunningham at #3. Kohl Drake, acquired last summer as part of the Merrill Kelly, was a strong swing-and-miss pitcher in the Rangers’ organization. has a diverse & modern pitch arsenal, regularly using both a four-seamer and two-seamer.
And, elsewhere…
[Just Baseball] Top 20 MLB Free Agents With Contract and Team Predictions – Zac Gallen – Two-year, $54 million deal, opt-out after 2026, Orioles, we now have Gallen signing with a team that has been very aggressive this offseason. My initial contract prediction has aged well, as the market has stalled on Gallen and he could be forced to take a two-year deal with an opt-out. Paul Goldschmidt – One-year, $5 million, D-backs. Goldschmidt is looking like a great fit in Arizona. With the left-handed hitting Pavin Smith set to start at first base, Goldy could form a platoon there, or could even push Smith to DH some if they wanted him to play every day. If this is the last season of Goldschmidt’s career, there would not be a better place for him.
[MLB Trade Rumors] Elly De La Cruz Declined Franchise-Record Offer From Reds – While details were sparse at the time, president of baseball operations Nick Krall revealed today the team made an official offer that would have topped their 10-year, $225MM franchise-record deal with Joey Votto. “We made Elly an offer that would’ve made him the highest-paid Red ever,” Krall said (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). “That’s not where he is and you respect that. It’s their career. You keep going and you keep working on what you can do today.” De La Cruz opted not to go into specifics, telling fans at Redsfest only that he leaves contractual matters to his agent, Scott Boras.
[NY Post] Jazz Chisholm Jr. joining Great Britain for 2026 World Baseball Classic – Jazz Chisholm Jr. has committed to suit up for Great Britain, as WBC reporter Shawn Spradling reported Friday, giving the Yankees [and former D-back!] second baseman a chance to play on the big stage this spring. Great Britain delegation head Gary Anderson and manager Brady Marcelino said last month at the Winter Meetings that there was strong interest in having Chisholm — who is entering his walk year — on the team; it was just a matter of working through eligibility and insurance, which has evidently been approved. The Bahamas native played for Great Britain in the WBC qualifiers as an 18-year-old in 2016.
The Rip (2026)
Dir: Joe Carnahan Star: Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Stephen Yuen, Scott Adkins
a.k.a. Cops Yelling: The Movie. Or perhaps it just seems that way, because nobody here seems to use their inside voice. However, it’s still decently entertaining, in a “Saturday night and I just want something mindless” way… It’s nice to see Damon and Affleck working together again: they’re the Peter Cushing and Christopher Lee of contemporary urban thrillers. Carnahan, too, has certainly come a long way since Blood Guts Bullets & Octane. Probably inevitably, the Netflix sausage machine has knocked off the rough edges of personality, in favor of smooth, slick and ultimately forgettable product. Though, as ever, the “based on real events” tag is more marketing than reality.
There are many reasons for the Orioles failure in 2025. Injuries piled up. The rotation was too thin. And a little bad luck certainly contributed. But perhaps the most disappointing part of the entire squad was the offense, a largely homegrown unit that was supposed to be the backbone of the team’s championship window. Instead, it collapsed.
Orioles President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias did quite a bit of work to improve the lineup this offseason. Most notably, he signed first baseman Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract with the expectation that he will hit 35+home runs in the middle of the order for years to come. Prior to that, he traded for Taylor Ward, a pending free agent that has hit 61 home runs over the last two seasons.
In short order, Elias injected power back into an Orioles lineup that sorely needed it. They had dropped from third in MLB in slugging (.435) in 2024 down to 19th (.394) in 2025. Some of that was due to the loss of Anthony Santander to free agency, and the rest was caused by underperformance from just about everyone else that stuck around. Bringing in external talent will help to a point, but the ceiling of this team will depend on what the players that were already in-house can do to bounce back. Two players, in particular, stand out.
Hip hip Holliday
The rare Oriole that actually improved in 2025 was Jackson Holliday. The former top prospect had a rough go in his rookie season of 2024, getting an early-season call-up, only to struggle mightily, go back to Triple-A Norfolk, and then return with some inconsistent performances through season’s end. He ended that year with a paltry .189/.255/.311 slash line.
In 2025, the Orioles cleared the deck for Holliday so that he could be their clear everyday second baseman. The results were…better. Over 149 games, he hit .242/.314/.375 with 17 home runs and a 95 OPS+. All in, that is a slightly below league-average hitter, but that OPS+ was a 32-point improvement from his rookie campaign. There was plenty to be encouraged by. He showed solid control of the strike zone, never looked out of his depth the way he often did in ‘24, and stayed at the big league level all season long.
There is no indication that the Orioles are wavering on Holliday’s potential. With spring training around the corner, he remains the only everyday option at second base on the roster. And while the team has continued to pursue high-end pitching through the winter, Holliday’s name has not been mentioned in any public trade rumors. He is poised to play a ton of baseball in Baltimore once again in 2026.
It has become commonplace for this era of Orioles prospects to scuffle right at the start of their big league careers, only to figure things out a bit more in years two and three. Holliday is in a good position to have the same experience.
Westburg, straight ahead
Elsewhere on the infield is a player that has had no such issue with big league pitching. In fact, he’s already made an all-star team and owns a career 116 OPS+. He’s not bad with the leather either. A Gold Glove isn’t out of the question before his career ends. That is, if he could only stay healthy.
Jordan Westburg missed time on three different occasions in 2025. He was out from late April through early June with a hamstring strain, lost a few games in June and July with a finger injury, and then sprained his ankle in mid-August, keeping him on the shelf until mid-September. All of those injuries limited him to just 85 total games.
Despite that, Westburg tied for the team lead in home runs (17) hit last year, alongside Holliday and Gunnar Henderson, who each played in 149 or more games. It doesn’t feel like a coincidence that the team’s worst month of the year (May), was the one that Westburg missed completely.
It’s unlikely that Westburg was ever truly healthy in 2025. Even still, he was productive, posting a solid .265/.313/.457 slash line with a 114 OPS+, and the aforementioned 17 home runs. Defensively, he graded out well, accumulating 3 outs above average, according to Baseball Savant.
On top of that, he maintained his 29 feet per second sprint speed (89th percentile in MLB), which is well above the league average (27 ft/sec), and among the very best at third base. In fact, no other third baseman had a faster time from home plate to first base (4.23 seconds) than Westburg, which is extremely impressive for a right-handed hitter.
All of the tools are there for Westburg to be the type of player that makes all-star teams on a yearly basis and might even get down-ballot MVP consideration some seasons. But he has to stay on the field for any of that to happen.
Table setters
Holliday and Westburg are not the only two hitters on the Orioles roster that need to improve going into 2026 if the team’s hopes of returning to the postseason are going to come true. But they are the two on the roster for which that jump in performance feels the most attainable.
Holliday has already shown he can develop at the major league level. Year two was a humble one in terms of production, but the growth was clear. Now he has a base from which he can build. FanGraphs calculated that he was worth 1.2 WAR in 2024. Many of their projection systems believe he could double that value in 2026, ranging from 2.3 to 3.1 WAR. A performance like that would have him in the all-star conversation, and maybe even some position-specific awards come October. An even bigger jump than that is also possible. After all, he was the absolute top prospect in baseball not so long ago. But let’s see pump the brakes a bit.
Westburg should have no doubt about his ability to be one of the best third basemen in the game. He has already done it, albeit for brief moments. Now it’s about staying off the IL, which can be a skill of sorts that players develop as they get more experience in the game. You can’t eliminate injury risk, but you may be able to mitigate it with adjustments to playing style. Whatever can be done, should be done. The Orioles are a much better team with Westburg in the lineup. If he plays in 130+ games, he is nearly a lock to be a 3.5+ WAR player, and maybe even better.
Lineups obviously aren’t set in stone, but right now the Roster Resource tool at FanGraphs projects the Orioles everyday offense to include Holliday as the leadoff man, a role he handled many times in 2025, and Westburg in the second spot. Right behind them is Henderson at three, with Alonso in the clean-up role. Maybe you like Westburg better in the leadoff spot with Holliday farther down the order, but at the very least that projection illustrates the pair’s expected importance to the team.
In theory, that sounds like a fearsome quartet to face right out of the gate. But it gets far less scary if Holliday can’t continue to grow and Westburg is on the IL more than the infield. The outcome of the 2026 Orioles is not entirely on the duo’s shoulders, but they will need to bare quite a bit of weight.
Back when I was updating IWAG in earnest, one of the flags or parameters that I put in was essentially a confidence rating — not just of the point estimate, but the distribution. Not surprisingly, my work and research indicated that it is a lot easier to forecast the upcoming season of a player with at least a handful of MLB seasons under their belts. Younger players, or more accurately, less experienced players, posed a relative challenge. Trying to forecast a to-debut rookie was a nightmare, but second-year players weren’t much better. (I remember a study a while ago by either Tom Tango or Mitchel Lichtman, or maybe both of them, that indicated that assuming league average for a given to-debut rookie ended up less wrong than trying to use their minor league stats and other parameters to actually forecast their performance.)
Unfortunately for me, and for you, if you care about forecasting, Drake Baldwin is a second-year player. His rookie year was great, one of the few things that actually worked in the Braves’ favor in 2025, and now there’s a question of whether he’ll maintain that hardware-and-Prospect Promotion Incentive-winning performance, improve upon it, or backslide for whatever reason.
Career-to-date, status, and recent performance
Baldwin was drafted in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft, spent the bulk of his first full professional season in High-A, and moved up to Triple-A on a full-time basis midway through 2024, after fewer than 300 PAs in Double-A. The Braves have, historically, promoted guys they expected to be key performers without needing them to pay their dues or pad their stats in Triple-A, but Baldwin wasn’t earmarked for a big league role until Sean Murphy got hurt in Spring Training 2025. Given that Baldwin spent much of 2024 destroying Triple-A pitching, their hand was basically forced — which, as you can tell from how 2025 played out, is not always a bad thing.
Baldwin finished 2025 with 3.1 fWAR in 446 PAs, a pretty sexy WAR-per-600-PAs rate of about 4.2. Catchers can achieve high WAR/600 rates by virtue of the positional adjustment for donning the tools of ignorance (about 1.3 WAR/600 alone) and playing decent defense, but Baldwin DHed a fair bit and was below-average defensively, such that his offense was about three times as valuable as his defense in terms of performance above average.
That offense was revelatory, in part because Baldwin, with seemingly little effort, resembled a paragon of what the 2025 Braves were hoping to sculpt of their hitters: he walked at an average rate, struck out way less than average, and made a ton of contact while maintaining above-average oomph on said contact. While many Braves hitters had long swings that they whipped through the zone, basically leveraging delta-vee to their benefit when connecting, Baldwin kept the bat speed aspect but relied on a shorter swing that seemed to have few ill effects on his power production while allowing him to mitigate swing-and-miss. He obliterated four-seamers (.419 xwOBA) and had no issues with sliders (.365) — in a somewhat-crazy development, he managed a .370 xwOBA against sliders when lacking the platoon advantage. His issue was changeups, but which is not surprising given that he’s a lefty-batting rookie.
He was also pretty consistent, or at least, consistently valuable. His worst monthly xwOBA was .321, when he wore down a bit in September. He had one really great month, with a near-.400 xwOBA in May, but had three others where he was solidly at .350 or above. Defensively, it was more of a mixed bag: he has great mechanics in terms of positioning himself to block and throw, but lacked zip on his throws. In terms of framing, he really struggled to be convincing when he had to reach for the ball — either above the zone or, more critically, across his body. It’s the sort of thing that can probably be fixed mechanically, though I’m not exactly sure whether the Braves are equipped to do that well given the whole William Contreras thing.
Forecasting
So, how do you take this and shove it into 2026? It’s tempting to just say the status quo will prevail — it gives Baldwin the credit for his offensive performance, prevents assuming any uptick defensively, and precludes any headache that one could get from trying to figure out how much Baldwin will or not will be DHing by simply setting it equal to the same rate of catcher-versus-DH breakdown in 2025. Adjustments after using 2025 as a starting point might be easy to eyeball… or not.
For a projection system, well, I think things go back to my first paragraph here: how much do you regress to the mean given how good Baldwin was in 2025? Something is probably warranted, and there’s a big issue that is hard to implement effectively regarding the huge swing in positional adjustment between catcher and DH, which are the two positions that Baldwin will likely play heavily in 2026. IWAG’s best attempt is below, and it’s not really that heartening…
As you can see, IWAG applied some regression to the mean offensively. But, a similarly chunky hit came from something akin to a 2-to-1 split between catcher and DH — which is really different from 2025. Last year, Baldwin only had 52 PAs as a DH, less than one-in-eight if you ignore his pinch-hitting appearances. This year, unless Sean Murphy ends up being a non-entity, 2ish-to-1ish is punishing for Baldwin on a value basis, but it’s hard to assume he’ll hit 500-plus PAs without a breakdown like that.
As far as distributions go, this is a fun one, which is another way of saying, “yeah, IWAG has no idea.” There just isn’t too much to go off of that would cabin the range, and the catcher-versus-DH thing causes a lot of issues that requires pontificating on Sean Murphy’s health and whether any other player gets ensconced at DH, neither of which IWAG is actually capable of doing in a projection for Drake Baldwin.
Your turn
Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:
Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Drake Baldwin produce in 2026?
How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”
Guys, seriously, stop picking numbers that aren’t a whole WAR, though if you do, it’s not like you’ll remember my forced adjustment to it when I score these next autumn anyway.
Wilbur Wood, a man who once threw 376 innings in a season and will undoubtably be the last man in the history of baseball to both win and lose 20 games in the same season, died at 84.
Even though the calendar says 2026, Sunday unfortunately felt a lot like 2025 for the Braves. Ha-Seong Kim, whom the Braves resigned this offseason, will now miss a good portion of the 2026 season with a torn finger tendon. It was a freak injury that occurred when Kim slipped on a piece of ice in his native Korea.
As a result, it will be interesting to see how the Braves respond to the injury in terms of adding infield depth to the roster. With Mauricio Dubon likely playing short as the starter, the Braves could look at different options to add SS depth to the organization.
It appears that the next big domino to fall on the FA market is Cody Bellinger. The Yankees currently have a modified offer out to Bellinger, including opt-outs. However, it has been reported in recent days they feel he could sign elsewhere.
Upgrading from a league-average bat in the third OF spot to one of the league’s best hitters would be a big gain in any context, but his impact on the Dodgers is boosted further by their already loaded lineup. Tucker provides the pop to drive in LA’s elite OBP guys, while his own OBP presence creates more RBI potential for the still fantastic bottom of the Dodgers’ order.
At Big West Dugout, a writer under the pseudonym Eephus Tosser looked at a few recent transactions — Tucker to the Dodgers, Gavin Lux traded by the Reds included — through an economist’s lens. He alluded to how the Dodgers invested early in building a player development system, which coupled with their vast resources is helping them thrive now.
“They didn’t draft Tucker. They didn’t tank for him. They didn’t reorganize their system to accommodate him. They simply absorbed him—financially and structurally—without changing how they operate,” he wrote. “That’s abundance after discipline. Resource importation without institutional erosion.”
The Kansas City Royals are increasingly unlikely to land either of the two hitters they pursued in trades: the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan and Boston Red Sox’s Jarren Duran.
Barring further moves, the Royals expect to rely heavily on offseason acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas in their outfield, as well as rookie Jac Caglianone and holdover Kyle Isbel.
Though the Royals’ outfield production might remain below average, their infield of Vinnie Pasquantino, Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia should again be one of the most productive in baseball, particularly if India bounces back.
While the work General Manager JJ Picollo has done to upgrade his outfield has been more inspiring this offseason than last, it still feels as if the additions are falling a bit short of expectations, especially on a team with a better than average starting rotation and one of the elite superstars in the game on the roster in Bobby Witt Jr. People may not like to talk about windows of competitiveness, but when Witt is anchoring your ballclub and you’ve assembled a quality pitching staff on the back of fantastic coaching, that window is open and needs to be taken advantage of.
Last year, I gave Picollo the benefit of the doubt when given the explanation as to why the Royals weren’t able to find suitable outfield upgrades. The free agent class wasn’t the greatest and if there aren’t willing trade partners, then there’s not much he can do.
But to strike out two years in a row, if that is indeed what happens, isn’t a good look.
In May 2025, India was spiked on his knee by Willson Contreras. A month later, he suffered a shoulder injury making a diving play. Finally, in September, India landed on the injured list with a wrist injury. That shoulder injury is where we should focus the most, as it seemed to have a clear impact the remainder of India’s season. Take the below splits into account:
India was a completely different hitter after the shoulder injury. He didn’t miss any real time or land on the injured list, but it begs the question: was India hampered by the shoulder injury for much of 2025? The Royals are banking on a bounceback from India in 2026 and they’ll need it to find any value at second base. Perhaps playing fewer positions and getting back to the basics will help.
Last Thursday, at the same time news was breaking that the Colorado Rockies had arrived at a deal with Willi Castro, Paul DePodesta and Michael Lorenzen addressed media in two separate Zoom availabilities.
Last week, Evan Lang provided an overview of Lorenzen’s career and a glimpse of what the signing might mean, and Sam Bradfield covered some of the highlights of his interview. At this point, it’s worth taking a moment to consider the things that weren’t said — but are significant — in both pressers.
The Rockies pitching staff is recruiting
Lorenzen was clear that the Rockies new staff played a significant role in his decision to sign with Colorado — “I’ve known a lot of them for a really long time,“ Lorenzen said. His explanation of those relationships are worth quoting at length:
I’ve known Alon (Leichman) since I was, shoot, since 2017, I want to say — before he was in pro ball. So I’ve known him for a really long time, and me and him have kind of kept in touch throughout the years. And so when he told me he was interviewing for the job, I was stoked for him, and he mentioned that he was going to try and bring me in if he ended up getting the job, which is pretty cool that we’re able to work together.
And then Matt Daniels, I worked with, he’s the new pitching coordinator. I worked with him when he was at Driveline — the first time I went to DriveLine back in like, 2017, so I’ve known him for a really long time as well.
And then, I’ve known Gabe (Ribas) for a really long with the Tigers. Me and him are really close in spring training, so he cares. He’s really smart, good leader. So that’s the background when it comes to the pitching side.
And then I had (Jeff) Pickler on the coaching staff in Cincinnati. He’s the bench coach now, obviously. And so he likes to think outside the box, and, I like to say, he doesn’t play scared, which is nice.
And then Brett Pill went to Cal State Fullerton. So, it just seemed like, man, I know, everyone. It’s just great. It was a perfect fit.
What Lorenzen is saying, then, is that he decided to sign with Colorado in large part due to relationships he’s built over the years with the Rockies’ new coaching staff. For years, the Rockies were notoriously insular and unwilling to take risks. That Lorenzen chose to sign with them shows the benefits of bringing in new personnel and new ideas.
He’ll bring the pitching approach of the Kansas City Royals
In 2024 when the Kansas City Royals were in Denver, I interviewed a number of their pitching staff (see here and here). What emerged as less interesting than the interviews themselves, however, was the attitude of the starting rotation as a whole. With Michael Wacha taking a lead role, the Royals rotation developed a “workshop” mentality. They would watch each others bullpens and debrief together when the starter came out of the game. Lorenen spent the last two years working in that environment.
We mesh very well. Everybody has a different way of pitching and a different way of thinking about pitching, but we all pick each other’s brains about things, talk to each other when we come out of the game, and we talk about what we see, even if it’s lefty or righty. We talk about what we saw and the little things to kind of help out the next guy that’s going the next day or two days or three days from then.
The Royals created a safe environment for taking risks and devalued ego: The emphasis was on collective success.
Here’s how Lorenzen described bringing those values to Coors Field:
I definitely love the process of Kansas City. And the reason behind that is just there was no ego. It was, “We just want to win, and we want what works best and what allows us to perform at the best of our ability.”
Sometimes ego can get in the way a little bit, in a sense, to where it’s like, “Hey, you’re not doing what I’ve asked you to do. And it’s even though it may not be the right thing, it’s what I what I asked you to do. So just do it.” You know, one of those situations, which I’m not saying any team that I’ve been on has done that, but it can get there.
And with Kansas City, there was just absolutely no egos, like, “Hey, we don’t care what you do. Go ahead and try it. We like it. If it works, then go for it.”
And I think this staff is definitely going to be that way, for sure. And I think just doing that alone, we should see some improvement in guys taking ownership of their careers and being more in tune with, like I said before, problem solving, trying to figure out how do we problem solve? How do we put certain pieces together? Because that’s what it takes to perform at the big leagues, and that’s what it takes to stay at the big leagues, is you got to be able to problem solve. You have to be able to adapt. And so, this staff is definitely going to be a staff that that is adaptable, and we’re going to be able to adapt to adversity.
Given that part of what Lorenzen will be doing in the coming season is mentoring young pitchers, having a leader with this approach should prove valuable for the Rockies.
Here’s the thing about pitchers — and you probably already know this, but I just want to reiterate the point. Good pitchers are nerds. Complete and total nerds. In the best possible way.
The first thing Lorenzen said when asked about why he signed with Colorado was loving a challenge:
One of the things is just, I feel like it’s untapped. And I don’t think you could say that about anywhere else in Major League Baseball, that you get to go to a place that’s just, it feels like it’s untapped. It feels like there’s a lot of new information to be learned. And that’s kind of right up my alley.
I think if as you get to know me throughout the year, you’ll see that I enjoy problem solving. Failure is going to happen. Trials are going to happen. You’re going to get your teeth kicked in, but it’s the problem solving and how to make the adjustment. That’s something that I really enjoy.
And Colorado, I feel like, presents that opportunity. And so with that being said, the staff, too, that they’ve hired, it just seems like I’ve known a lot of them for a really long time, and it just seemed like the perfect fit to where we are all going to be on the same page of “How do we solve this problem?” You could take it from the perspective of look at the word “problem” in a negative way, or you can look at the word “problem” from the perspective of opportunity. That’s always intrigued me about Colorado.
There’s a lot to unpack. Lorenzen wants the challenge, and feels like he’s found a staff that he can collaborate with.
The familiarity’s there, and what’s nice, too, is they’re all pretty young, so I don’t feel like they’re too far off from my age.
So, it’ll be really nice in a sense of I’m already talked to Alon, and there’s going to be some back and forth between me and him, which I think is really good. Through the debates, and like, “No, I think this is how we do it.” He’s like, “No, I think you’re dumb, and I think we should do it this way.” And it’s like, “Well, that doesn’t make sense to me.”
I think we’ll be able to have honest conversations like that. When you can have honest conversations like that, that’s how you really grow, and that’s how you really solve problems.
That right there, Reader, is the good stuff: an approach cracking the Rubik’s cube of Coors Field using science, trust, and collaboration.
Lorenzen revealed during the presser that he’s created a variation on his changeup over the offseason. One of the benefits of signing Lorenzen is his eight-pitch mix. Leichman and his staff will have a skilled veteran pitcher to test any range of pitches to see how they work.
Think of him as a kind of pitching lab rat — and I write that as the highest compliment.
Also worth noting, he’s planning to come to Coors Field soon to throw a bullpen and see how his stuff plays at elevation. These are all signs of a pitcher embracing a challenge.
No one knows that the 2026 Colorado Rockies will look like. But we do know they’ll look different, and we’re going to see a new kind of baseball at Coors Field.
Bring it on.
Reminder: Rockies Fest is this weekend
Here’s a list of attendees and schedule:
Todd Helton and Larry Walker will be there… will you?
This Thomas Harding article is well worth your time. In addition to describing Michael Lorenzen’s relationship to the Rockies pitching staff, Harding also delves into the pitcher’s training with Ido Portal. It’s interesting stuff.
