Category: MLB

(74-64) Charlotte Knights 2, (70-67) Gwinnett Stripers 5

• JR Ritchie, SP: 6.2IP 4H 2ER 1BB 15K, 3.30 ERA
• Rowdy Tellez, PH-DH: 1-for-1, HR, 4 RBI, .262/.352/.472
• Jim Jarvis, SS: 1-for-3, 2 R, .304/.400/.443
• David McCabe, 1B: 0-for-4, .304/.358/.522

Box Score

JR Ritchie stole the show in dominant fashion as he struck out 15 over just 6.2 innings pitched, while Rowdy Tellez provided the big hit to propel the Stripers to a 5-2 win.

JR Ritchie provided the headline with a Gwinnett record 15 strikeouts across his 6 innings of work. He surrendered a pair of solo home runs, and a pair of singles but outside of that was brilliant. JR utilized his five pitch mix with his four-seam, curveball, cutter, and changeup all grading above average. He pounded the zone with a 73% strike rate, generated 20 whiffs, while getting ahead of 68% of his matchups with a first pitch strike. His four-seam averaged 95, but touched 97 during the outing.

He was brought out in the seventh inning but was relieved by Danny Young (0.2IP 1H 0R 0BB 0K) who worked out of the jam and kept the Knights at just two runs. Ricky Vanasco (1IP 0H 0R 0BB 2K) came in for Danny Young and recorded a spotless inning of work, striking out two.The Stripers would strike in the bottom half of the inning to take the lead, and James Karinchak (0.2IP 0H 0R 0BB 1K) recorded the final two outs to complete the win.

Offensively, the Stripers were held in check for a large amount of the game. After going down 1-0 in the first inning, the Stripers struck back with a Jordan Groshans RBI single that drove in Jim Jarvis who had earlier singled in the inning. They were then held scoreless, not threatening too much, until the eighth inning. After the first three batters of the inning reached based, Lizandro Espinoza and David McCabe both struck out. Rowdy Tellez would then pinch hit for Jordan and provide a memory for everyone in the stadium. 1 pitch, 1 swing, 4 runs, and a lead.

(76-55) Pensacola Blue Wahoos 7, (62-65) Columbus Clingstones 5

• John Gil, 2B: 2-for-5, R, .322/.399/.446
• Owen Carey, RF: 1-for-4, RBI, R, BB, .250/.344/.384
• Alex Lodise, SS: 2-for-5, HR, 2 R, RBI, .307/.346/.493
• Adam Żebrowski, DH: 2-for-3, HR, 2 RBI, R, .279/.350/.624
• Luke Sinnard, SP: 4IP 2H 1ER 1BB 4K, 2.08 ERA

Box Score

After strong pitching through the games first seven innings the Clingstones fell apart late, giving up six runs in the final two innings to fall to 62-65, and drop to fourth in the Southern League standings.

Luke Sinnard returned to the mound after being scratched with some back soreness and was effective – striking out four across four innings of work while pounding the zone with a 68% strike rate. His only hiccup came in the third inning when he surrendered a first pitch solo home run to Connor Caskenette to put the Blue Wahoos on the board. 2026 has been a really strong, yet somewhat disappointing season for Luke Sinnard who has looked fantastic on the mound but has really struggled to stay on it. After a total of 72.1 innings in 2025, Luke has followed it up with just 47.2 this season so safe to say as long as he’s healthy he is definitely a candidate for the AFL. Piggybacking the Sinnard start was Julio Robaina (3IP 2H 1ER 1BB 5K) who did what Julio Robaina does – pound the zone for quick, effective outs. He would be replaced by Duncan Davitt (1.2IP 5H 5ER 1BB 0K) who was effective in the 8th, getting three quick outs, but once it hit the 9th it was an absolute disaster for Duncan. After getting the first two outs of the inning he would surrender the following: HR, 1B, HR, 2B, HR, BB, before being mercifully relieved by Tyler LaPorte (0.1IP 1H 0R 0BB 1K) who faced two batters, getting one out and ending inning.

The Clingstones offense got off to a fast start with John Gil singling to lead off the game, stealing second, and then coming in to score on this Owen Carey double.

Alex Lodise would then single himself, moving Owen Carey over to third, where he would then score on a wild pitch to put the Clingstones up 2-0. Adam Zebrowski would follow that up with an RBI single himself, to push the lead to 3-0. The offense would then be held scoreless until the bottom of the eighth when Alex Lodise and Adam Zebrowski would both hit solo home runs to put Columbus up 5-2, before their late collapse.

(73-58) Winston-Salem Dash 4, (61-68) Rome Emperors 12

• Carter Beck, CF: 1-for-2, 3 R, 3 BB, .203/.353/.319
• Conor Essenburg, RF: 3-for-4, HR, 5 RBI, BB, 3 R, .235/.412/.392
• Luis Guanipa, LF: 1-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI, BB, R, .217/.233/.355
• Cody Miller, SS: 1-for-3, HR, 4 RBI, R, .200/.314/.329
• Tanner Smith, C: 1-for-4, HR, RBI, BB, R, .118/.250/.324
• Daniel Brooks, SP: 2IP 0H 0R 1BB 5K, 0.00 ERA

Box Score

Strong pitching and dominant hitting was the recipe of success for the Rome Emperors who picked up their 61st win of the season in convincing fashion.

Daniel Brooks got the start for the Emperors and struck out all but two batters he faced in his start. He was removed after the second inning with his pitch count just at 34, as he continues to deal with a small shoulder injury. He would be replaced by David Rodriguez (3IP 1H 0R 0BB 2K) who pitched the next three innings to great success – allowing just one hit. Heading into the sixth inning the Emperors were comfortably in the lead with a 10 run cushion, and they would turn the ball over to Tanner Bauman (1IP 0H 0R 1BB 1K). He would be followed by Justin Long (1IP 1H 0R 1BB 2K), and Tyler Schoff (1IP 1H 0R 0BB 0K) who also provided the zeroes for the Emperors. In the ninth, the Emperors turned to Jarret Whorff (1IP 4H 4ER 1BB 1K) who struggled, but with such a huge lead, was kept in the game and finished off the game.

Offensively the Emperors collected 12 hits, five of which were extra-base hits, and walked an additional eight times. The first two runs came within the first three hitters with Carter Beck leading the game off with a single and coming into score on a Conor Essenburg double to center. Just two pitches after that it was Luis Guanipa that collected a double of his own to push the lead to 2-0. The offense did not stop there as the second inning featured a lead off home run by Tanner Smith, and a two out GRAND SLAM by Cody Miller.

The score would remain 7-0 until the fifth inning when it was time for Conor Essenburg to UNLOAD on a towering opposite field home run to push the lead to 10-0.

The Emperors would go on to score to more runs in the seventh inning for a comfortable, season ending 12-4 win.

(70-61) Augusta GreenJackets 3, (73-59) Charleston RiverDogs 2

• Manuel Campos, SS: 1-for-4, RBI, BB, .262/.292/.402
• Caleb Klein, CF: 1-for-3, 2 BB, .310/.425/.322
• Dominic Kibler, C: 1-for-2, R, 2 BB, .167/.417/.333
• Junior Tilien, 2B: 1-for-4, RBI, R, 2B, .241/.353/.345
• Will Holmes, SP: 3IP 2H 0R 1BB 4K, 4.76 ERA

Box Score

The GreenJackets come from behind and hold off the RiverDogs in the series finale that featured timely hits, and decent pitching from five combined pitchers.

Will Holmes got the start and relatively cruised through three innings, striking out four. He allowed one runner on in the first, before immediately recording a double play to erase the runner. He then allowed a one out single in the second, before immediately picking the runner off at first. It was a strong end to his season as he looked more and more comfortable as time went on after he made his debut. He was relieved by Logan Forsythe (1IP 0H 1ER 3BB 2K) who struggled with his command, allowing a run on zero hits before he walked three. Logan was replaced by Ryan Heppner (2IP 1H 0R 1BB 2K) who worked a scoreless pair of innings. After Ryan it was time for Cristobal Abreu (1.1IP 0H 1R 0ER 3BB 1K) who, like Logan, struggled with his control walking three, but allowed just one unearned run. Lewis Sifontes (1.2IP 0H 0R 0BB 2K) picked up his eighth save of the season, pitching across a pair of innings without allowing a runner on base.

Offensively, the GreenJackets got just enough done. They tied the game in the fifth inning when Junior Tilien doubled in Dominic Kibler who had walked and stolen second base. Two batters later it was Manuel Campos who ripped a single to left to drive in Junior and put the GreenJackets up 2-1. They would add onto that lead in the next inning as it was Yamvier Carrero who got it done, singling to the opposite field and driving in Cooper McMurray to make it 3-1 and secure the season finale for the GreenJackets.

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It's not every day the San Francisco Giants (55%) are favored, but that's the case in tonight's series opener vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at Oracle Park. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET on NBC.

My Cardinals vs. Giants predictions have more faith in Logan Webb delivering a quality start than Michael McGreevy, especially with San Francisco's recent form against righties.

That's reflected in my MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 7.

Who will win Cardinals vs Giants today: Giants (55%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The San Francisco Giants quietly sit second in xSLG and xwOBA against righties over the past month, and now draw Michael McGreevy.

McGreevy hasn’t performed well in night games (4.86 ERA, 5.47 xERA) and enters play in poor form, conceding three or more runs in six of his last eight.

Logan Webb has pitched much cleaner at home (3.39 ERA, 3.59 xERA) this season. He has a good chance of holding up against a St. Louis Cardinals team that ranks 23rd in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitchers the last 30 days.

Back San Fran to 57%.

COVERS INTEL:The Cardinals own the 10th highest ground ball rate vs. righties the last month, playing into the hands of Webb's heavy groundball profile.

Cardinals vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (49%)

Webb has allowed a hard-hit rate of just 29% on home soil. He has also done a fantastic job of keeping the ball down, inducing grounders at better than a 49% clip.

That profile will make it tough for the Cardinals to generate power in a park that makes it difficult on its own.

McGreevy is excellent at limiting walks and has only allowed 0.88 HR/9 in pitcher-friendly conditions, which he’ll certainly get in San Francisco tonight.

This has the makings of a low-scoring affair. Play to 52%.

Cardinals vs Giants home run prediction: Rafael Devers (17%)

There’s hot, and then there’s Rafael Devers. The Giants’ top slugger has homered six times over his past seven games, and now has an enticing matchup against McGreevy.

Devers has five career at-bats vs. McGreevy. He hit the ball hard in four of them, and left the park twice.

As you’d expect given that history, Devers profiles well against McGreevy’s mix. Fastballs and cutters make up two of his three most-used pitches, and Devers has posted ISOs of .370 and .475 against those two.

Don’t be surprised if the heater lasts another day.

Cardinals vs Giants market trends

Here's how the trading volume is coming in on tonight's Cardinals vs. Giants matchup at Polymarket, with sharp traders leaning rather heavily to the visitors.

Cardinals vs Giants weather

Temperatures are expected to stay in the mid-60s. Even with the wind blowing out, it should play in favor of the pitchers.

Cardinals vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals 46% | Giants 55%
• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (64%) | Giants -1.5 (37%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (52%) | Under 7.5 (49%)

Cardinals vs Giants trend

San Francisco has hit the Over in only 19 of its last 45 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Giants.

How to watch Cardinals vs Giants and game info

Cardinals vs Giants latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The New York Mets (65-78) head back to Florida to face the Miami Marlins (72-72) in an attempt to hurt their division rival’s postseason dreams. The Mets have dropped six out of ten games to the Marlins this year, including all three games at loanDepot Park back in May. The Mets returned the favor by sweeping the Marlins at Citi Field in May before dropping three of four at Citi Field in the summer.

The Mets flexed their muscle in a series win against the Giants, socking eight home runs across the three games. They slugged five homers in the first game, a 10-6 victory on Friday night, which included two dingers from Francisco Alvarez. The Giants turned the tables on Saturday, handing New York a 9-5 loss by hitting five home runs of their own. The Mets did manage a homer from AJ Ewing, which represented the first runs he’s driven in since July 31, ending a lengthy stretch of futility. Sunday’s game was a much more modest affair, with the Mets trailing 2-0 heading into the eighth. That’s when they mounted a rally, with a solo home run from Brett Baty getting them on the board and a three-run homer from Bo Bichette putting them ahead for good and resulting in the team securing a 4-2 victory.

It was New York’s second consecutive series win after dropping three in a row. With that, they secured 65 wins, putting them within one of the 66 wins that the 2003 Mets had. That remains the record for futility for the franchise since the turn of the millennium, and given how poorly the year began, it was not a guarantee that the Mets would eclipse that mark.

The Marlins, despite their refusal to add at the deadline (in fact, they even traded Liam Hicks to the Rays), remain in the Wild Card race with a .500 record. They sit four games of the final playoff spot in the National League. The trouble for them is that they have to leap a handful of teams to reach the postseason, including the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Cardinals, with the Pirates right on their tail as well, Their offense erupted for 10 runs in yesterday’s victory over the Cubs, which helped them avoid a sweep at the hands of the Wild Card-leading Cubbies.

The Marlins have a long history of derailing the Mets’ postseason dreams. Last season, the Mets traveled to loanDepot Park needing a series win to enter the playoffs as the third Wild Card team, and instead Miami took two of three to dash their hopes on the final game of the regular season. This is a familiar scente for Mets fans, who remember the 2007 and 2008 collapses all too well. In both instances, the Marlins came to Shea Stadium and dropped the Mets on the final game of the regular season to eliminate New York for playoff contention. With the Mets having nothing to play for this September, they can enact a small measure of revenge by taking a late-season series to hurt the Marlins, who are vying for their first playoff berth since 2023.

Monday, September 7: Jonah Tong vs. Eury Pérez, 1:10 PM EDT on SNY

Tong (2026): 10.0 IP, 7 K, 7 BB, 1 HR, 3.60 ERA, 5.10 FIP, 88 ERA-

Tong will return to the team’s rotation for the first time in 2026. He made three relief appearances for New York in May and early June, allowing six runs (four earned) on eight hits over ten innings, with seven strikeouts and seven walks. He’s struggled for the most part in Triple-A this year, posting a 4.54 ERA over 23 starts in Syracuse, but the right-hander has been better as of late, posting a 0.84 ERA over his past four starts. That stretch included a start on August 29 in which he came within one out of a seven-inning no-hitter. Tong made his major league debut and picked up his first win against the Marlins, allowing four runs (one earned) over five innings.

Pérez (2026): 135.1 IP, 145 K, 59 BB, 17 HR, 3.72 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 88 ERA-

Pérez has seen his ERA jump by a half-run over his last two starts as he endures one of his tougher stretches of the season. In his last two outings, he’s pitched 7 2/3 innings and allowing 11 earned runs on 11 hits, picking up one loss and settling for a no decision in the other outing. It’s been a solid year for the right-hander otherwise, who missed all of 2024 with Tommy John Surgery and struggled in his return season in 2025, posting a 4.25 ERA and striking out 105 batters in 95 1/3 innings.

Tuesday, September 8: Sean Manaea vs. Sandy Alcantara, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY

Manaea (2026): 128.1 IP, 122 K, 41 BB, 21 HR, 4.70 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 114 ERA-

Manaea had another rough outing, allowing five earned runs on a season-high 11 hits over 5 2/3 innings. He struck out two, walked one, and allowed one home run. It is the fourth consecutive start in which he’s allowed at least four earned runs, and the second consecutive start allowing at least five earned runs. During this stretch, his ERA has jumped from 4.13 to 4.70. On a positive note, Manaea continues to eat innings for New York, pitching into the sixth inning for the eighth straight outing.

Alcantara (2026): 195.2 IP, 142 K, 51 BB, 19 HR, 3.54 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 84 ERA-

Alcantara could very well be approaching the end of his tenure with Miami, as the former Cy Young winner has a club option for the 2027 campaign. The right-hander is having his best season since his 2022 All-Star campaign, when he led all NL pitchers in WAR, complete games, and innings pitched. Heading into this start, he leads NL starters with 30 starts and 195 2/3 innings, but he has also allowed the most hits (181). In each of his last two starts, he allowed four earned runs over six innings, with Miami losing each of those games. He’s only struck out five across those two starts. The Marlins have lost each of Alcantara’s last five starts.

Wednesday, September 9: Robert Stock vs. Janson Junk, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY

Stock (2026): 26.1 IP, 25 K, 13 BB, 2 HR, 5.81 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 142 ERA-

While not confirmed, Stock seems in line to pitch on Wednesday, with the team lining Nolan McLean up for Friday’s start at Yankee Stadium. He pitched 1/3 of an inning in relief in Friday’s win against the Giants. Prior to that, he picked up his first career victory since 2019, pitching 5 1/3 shutout innings against the Rays. In that victory, he allowed five hits, struck out four, and did not walk a batter in the win.

Junk (2026): 108.0 IP, 74 K, 29 BB, 12 HR, 4.00 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 95 ERA-

Junk is coming off a solid start, although one that resulted in a loss. In five innings against the Cubs, he allowed one earned run on three hits, with one walk and four strikeouts. Prior to that, he pitched 4 2/3 innings and allowed one earned run on four hits, with two walks and two strikeouts. Junk picked up a win against the Mets back on July 31, as he pitched 5 innings and allowed one unearned run on three hits.

The San Diego Padres started the series finale against Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees with a bang. Three of them to be exact. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado went back-to-back-to-back to give the Padres a 3-0 lead in the first inning, which resulted in a 4-3 win at Petco Park on Sunday.

San Diego starter Michael King pitched a 1-2-3 top of the first inning and his team responded with run support in the bottom half of the inning. Tatis connected on a 2-2 pitch, which was on the outer third of the plate and drove it over the wall in right field to give the Padres a 1-0 lead. Cronenworth had a similar at-bat from the opposite side of the plate, connecting on a 2-1 pitch on the outer third of the plate and driving it over the wall in left field.

After two opposite field solo home runs, San Diego had a 2-0 lead and Machado stepped into the batter’s box. The third baseman followed the blueprints of Tatis and Cronenworth and hit a 2-2 pitch deep over the center field wall to give the Padres a 3-0 lead on back-to-back-to-back home runs off the Yankees ace.

King had all the run support he needed after the first inning and kept the New York hitter flummoxed throughout his appearance. The right-hander tossed six shutout innings and allowed just four hits with three walks and three strikeouts. It should be noted that none of the four hits allowed by King were recorded by the Yankees’ hottest hitter Ben Rice. He was actually held hitless, finishing 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts in the final game of the series.

The Padres did add on a run in the bottom of the seventh inning with Cole still on the mound. Luis Campusano, who hit the walk-off home run in the series opener on Friday night, connected for his second home run of the series with a fly ball to left field that landed in the second deck. The blast gave San Diego a 4-0 lead and proved to be the winning home run. Campusano also made an impact on defense when he threw out a would-be base stealer at second base in the top of the eighth inning. It was the fourth runner thrown out by Campusano in the series.

King gave way to the bullpen in the seventh inning. Bradgley Rodriguez pitched a scoreless seventh with two strikeouts and was followed by Adrian Morejon in the eighth inning. The San Diego setup man had another rough outing which included a throwing error that allowed a run to score. The Yankees score three runs on Morejon, but only two of them were earned as a result of his error. Mason Miller came on for the ninth inning and allowed a two-out walk, but locked down the win and the save with three strikeouts.

The Padres will be back in action today when they welcome the Washington Nationals to Petco Park to open a three-game series at 2:10 p.m.

Padres News:

• The San Diego rotation is getting a major boost as Nick Pivetta is scheduled to return from the IL and make the start against Washington today.

• The Padres top picks from the 2026 draft got a look at Petco Park and saw their club in action against the Yankees.

Baseball News:

• The Atlanta Braves got a comeback win over the Philadelphia Phillies thanks to some help from Ronald Acuna Jr.

• The Boston Red Sox completed a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles.

• The Chicago Cubs got beat by the Miami Marlins despite Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting his 40th home run.

• Eduardo Rodriguez pitched the Arizona Diamondbacks past the Houston Astros.

Anyone can really be forgiven for thinking, after the Orioles dramatically got back up to .500 after months of wallowing below it, that this would mark the start of a September ascent. The opportunity was right there in front of them. What we have gotten instead is the ultimate case of the 2026 Orioles pulling the rug out from under anyone foolish enough to believe in them, with the team going on to lose its first six September games, in some ways each more pathetic of a loss than the one before it.

With this year’s team having buried itself, focus must turn to how to make things better for next year. In this episode, that’s what I’m trying to do. I think that has to start with change at the top of baseball operations. For months, I have felt that if they don’t make the playoffs, Mike Elias needs to be out of here. It is clear that he cannot fix the problems that have afflicted the roster going back to right around the All-Star break two seasons ago. It’s going to take someone new to make sense of this.

I also think that change at the top is going to need to mean change in the dugout leadership as well. I don’t blame Elias for choosing Craig Albernaz as the manager. Every indication was he was the #1 manager-in-waiting in baseball for multiple offseasons, and he could have chosen any job he wanted since around the end of the 2024 season. It’s not that very many of the Orioles problems are his fault, but making them better is his responsibility and it’s clear he can’t do that.

I’m not optimistic about David Rubenstein sharing either of these ideas. So, all that’s left is to guess at who Elias will think are the keepers on this roster and what he might even be able to try to do in this coming offseason, when it’s looking like the lack of a new labor agreement will probably cut away months of time where free agents could sign and trades could be made.

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This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.

How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of a future episode of the podcast.

Good morning! Gerrit Cole allowed three consecutive home runs to start yesterday’s game against the Padres. Thankfully for Cole, he’s actually used to this — he had already done it once before and is now the only pitcher in baseball history to have done it twice. Historic lolz, Gerrit!

Kermit’s faceplant and the fact that the Sox are now only 2.5 games behind the Yankees has a lot of Sox fans wondering if they can still catch the Yankees for the first Wild Card, even after the disappointing recent series in the Bronx. That seems highly unlikely to me. While 2.5 games doesn’t look like a lot, the Sox are 3 games behind the Yankees in the loss column — and you can effectively call that 4 games, since the Yankees hold the tie-breaker. Moreover, the Yankees have a pretty soft schedule to close out the season, starting this week with the Rockies and the Mets.

But you know who doesn’t have a soft schedule to end the season? The first place Rays, who play the Braves, Astros, A’s, Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies to close out 2026. Yikes!

The Rays have a four-game lead over the Yankees, and, ultimately, I think it’s highly unlikely we see any movement between these three teams over the last month. But the Rays’ schedule combined with the fact that they will play a series directly against the Yankees has me at least wondering: could they slip into the Wild Card and would the Sox be better off playing the Rays in the first round?

If such a series did come to pass, it would mean that the Rays would be seriously spiraling heading into the postseason. And let’s face it, despite the better record, they don’t look as strong as the Yankees anyway. But it would also mean that the Yankees would be seriously surging into October, and I don’t love that, either.

Talk about postseason permutations and whatever else you want in this space and, as always, be good to one another.

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The Baltimore Orioles are 55% favorites to put an end to their six-game losing streak this afternoon at Camden Yards, with first pitch coming at 1:35 p.m. ET.

Given the strong signs they've shown at the plate against left-handed pitchers, I'm buying the dip and backing Baltimore with my Guardians vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks.

Who will win Guardians vs Orioles today: Orioles moneyline (55%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Baltimore Orioles’ hitting profile against lefties is littered with green flags.

They rank second in barrel rate, second in hard-hit rate, and fifth in xwOBA vs. southpaws over the past month. Joey Cantillo has posted a 1.52 WHIP and 5.09 SIERA during that span, making him a vulnerable target the Orioles should get to.

Trevor Rogers managed a 1.22 WHIP and 3.04 SIERA over the same period. He looks more likely to give his team a quality start, and the Orioles have the better offense to boot.

Back Baltimore to 57%.

COVERS INTEL: Joey Cantillo's 1.52 WHIP over the past 30 days is the fourth-highest mark among today's projected starters.

Guardians vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55%)

Cantillo has not fared well against teams that hit lefties for power. He's sporting a 6.75 ERA through 10 starts vs. opponents who rank inside the Top 10 in ISO against southpaws, and the Orioles come in at No. 9.

All of Baltimore’s underlying numbers are pointing upwards against lefties, so this is a spot I want to back them to score.

The Cleveland Guardians are not the most powerful offense around, but they quietly sit 11th in xwOBA against lefties the past month. 

I’d play the Over to 57%.

Guardians vs Orioles home run prediction: Coby Mayo (16%)

Coby Mayo destroys left-handed pitching. He's sporting a .412 ISO and 22.6% barrel rate on the season, which is almost unfathomable.

He isn’t a one-trick pony, either. He hits almost everything well from lefties, and there’s nothing Cantillo has in his bag that should cause Mayo problems.

Fastballs, curveballs, and changeups account for well over 90% of Cantillo’s pitches against righties. Mayo hits them all for power, posting ISOs of .429, .727, and .367, respectively.

Guardians vs Orioles weather

The forecast calls for temperatures hovering around 80, although winds are blowing in. That'll zap some of the power.

Guardians vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Guardians 46% | Orioles 55%
• Run line: Guardians +1.5 (65%) | Orioles -1.5 (36%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (55%) | Under 7.5 (46%)

Guardians vs Orioles trend

The Orioles own a 71-69 O/U record this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Orioles.

How to watch Guardians vs Orioles and game info

Guardians vs Orioles latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Mets (65-78) open a three-game series on the road against the Miami Marlins (72-72) on Monday at 1:10 p.m. on SNY.

Here's what to know about the game and how to watch...

Mets Notes

• Jonah Tong looks to impress in his first MLB start this year, having gone 1-1 with a 3.60 in three relief appearances earlier in the season
• After hitting a clutch three-run HR in Sunday's win, Bo Bichette is hitting .346 with two home runs and five RBI over his last seven games
• Brett Baty, who also went deep Sunday, owns a .353 batting average with nine RBI over his last 15 games

Today's Lineups

What channel is SNY?

Check your TV or streaming provider's website or channel finder to find your local listings.

How can I stream the game?

The way to stream SNY games is via the MLB App or MLB.tv.

In order to stream games in SNY’s regional territory, you will need to have SNY as part of your TV package (cable or streaming), or you can now purchase an in-market SNY subscription package via MLB or Amazon. Both ways will allow fans to watch the Mets on their computer, tablet or mobile phone.

How can I watch the game on my computer via MLB?

To get started on your computer, click here and then follow these steps:

• Log in using your provider credentials. If you are unsure of your provider credentials, please contact your provider.

• Link your provider credentials with a new or existing MLB.com account.

• Log in using your MLB.com credentials to watch Mets games on SNY.

• Select the SNY Mets game you wish to view from the Multimedia Center.

How can I watch the game on the MLB App?

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Good morning.

Shawn McFarland writes that the Texas Rangers displayed their ability to rebound with a series finale win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday.

Kennedi Landry writes about Jake Burger’s two home run day in Sunday’s victory being fueled by a change in facial hair.

McFarland notes that with Nathan Eovaldi nearing a return, the Rangers are figuring out what role he might have down the stretch.

Kevin Sherrington writes that the Rangers only have a few weeks left to decide if they’re going to be playing next month.

And, the baseball folks at ESPN make some stretch run predictions for how things might go in the final month of the season.

Have a nice day!

The Atlanta Braves had one of their most dramatic wins all season yesterday to secure a season tiebreaker against the Philadelphia Phillies. If they win today, it will give them a six game lead. With only three games left against each other before the season ends, a win today could be huge.

Grant Holmes will be taking the mound for the Braves. As we all know by now, he does not go deep into games so the bullpen needs to be ready. Holmes has been up and down as of late. In his last five starts he has given up zero earned runs in has last start and in order from there he has given up six, zero, three, and zero runs respectively. He seems to be dominate when he is on, but terrible when he is not. Hopefully the trend will not continue because base on his last five games he is due to give up at least three earned runs.

Holmes has not faced the Phillies since April, but faced them twice in a five day span. In his first start he went 4.2 innings and held them to two runs on four hits to include a HR. In his second start he tied his second longest start with 6.0 innings pitched. He gave up three earned runs on seven hits while walking three and striking out four. The Braves won both games.

No player on the Phillies has more than nine at-bats against Holmes. Kyle Schwarber has an OPS of .904 and two HRs against Holmes, but only a .143 average. Bryce Harper only has four at-bats against him, but has done massive damage with a HR, .500 average, and 1.964 OPS. Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs has been successful with a 1.334 OPS and Trea Turner has a 1.158. The rest of the roster has struggled. No other player has an OPS north of .625.

Jesús Luzardo is coming to the mound and is having arguably the best season of his career. He has pitched 169.2 innings thus far and has a 3.02 ERA, 2.86 FIP, and a SO/BB ratio of 4.10. Although the Braves have already played the Phillies six times, but Luzardo has not faced them yet this season. There are four different players on the Braves that have at least twenty-two at-bats. Of these four Ozzie Albies has a .625 OPS, Matt Olson has a .518, Austin Riley has a .694, and Lane Thomas has a 1.503 OpS with four HRs.

I think it is fair to say that Thomas needs to be in the linuep this afternoon.

The Braves have proven this series that their path to victory is to get to the bullpen, so the goal today should be to tire out Luzardo to get to the bullpen as soon as possible. On paper, the Braves have a hill to climb, but it can be done, especially if Lane Thomas is in the lineup and continues to rake against today’s All-Star SP.

First pitch is at 1:05 EDT.

Game Info

Game Time: Monday, September 7th, 1:05 pm EDT

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

The Braves have already taken two games in Philadelphia and currently hold a five game lead with 19 games left to play. They have the season tiebreaker over the Phillies now, always important in this age of no more tiebreaker games to determine winners of something. Even with one more game here in Philadelphia between the two and more games this coming weekend in Atlanta, it’s fair to ask the question:

Is the race for the National League East over?

Things can happen, of course, so maybe we should wait until next weekend happens to fully figure it out, but after that deflating loss yesterday, now is the time around these parts.

The Detroit Tigers’ Double-A affiliate, the Erie SeaWolves, is the only one of the Tigers full season minor league teams to reach the postseason this year. That’s a credit to manager Tony Cappuccilli, who survived a lack of pitching prospects to get the SeaWolves to the postseason for the fifth straight season. With the A-ball season now done, the question is whether the Tigers might prioritize getting some of their top prospects at the High-A level a little more work and some postseason experience by promoting them to Erie.

Cappuccilli really had little to work with on the pitching side in the first half of the season. Lefty Joe Miller, a 26-year-old not ranked anywhere, was his top starting pitcher. Knuckleballing veteran Kenny Serwa struggled, as did options like RHP Max Alba, and crafty, soft-tossing lefty Carlos Peña. There really weren’t any legit relief prospects available to him either. Triple digit sinkerballer Moises Rodriguez was at least effective despite pretty weak peripheral numbers, but then he missed all of July with an injury. For the most part, Cappuccilli and his staff had to make due with a lot of older org pitchers in both the rotation and the bullpen. So it’s pretty impressive that they managed to turn things around in the second half, despite not really getting a ton of reinforcements on the pitching side. So perhaps some reinforcements are in order now.

Left-hander Ben Jacobs, the Tigers third round pick in the 2025 draft, is currently in peak form and challenging 2026 first rounder Cameron Flukey for top pitching prospect in the Tigers farm system. With improved mechanics and extension this year, Jacobs is getting down the mound better, throwing harder, and regularly getting 18-19 inches of ride (induced vertical break) on his fourseamer. His slider has really gotten more consistently sharp in recent weeks, and he packs a good changeup and a solid curveball as well. He holds a 34.5 percent strike out rate, which is outstanding, though his walk rate is somewhat too high at 11.2 percent.

Jacobs quickly breezed through Single-A Lakeland in just a few outings back in the spring. He had some trouble with walks and home runs after the jump to High-A West Michigan in May, but over his last six starts has really hit a new level. He’s allowed just four runs in his last six starts, collecting 43 strikeouts, and allowing 10 walks and 15 hits across 31 innings of work. He’s thrown 92.1 innings this year, but he threw 83.2 innings in his junior year at Arizona State, so he really hasn’t been pushed much beyond his college workload yet.

The SeaWolves could definitely use a pair of good starts from Jacobs to close out their regular season this week, and then in the postseason. RHP Lucas Elissalt is another nice breakout pitching prospect, who jumped from High-A to Double-A in early August, and has given the SeaWolves a nice boost in the second half. Beyond that they’re still working with a lot of veteran minor league starters without major league time in their futures. Giving Jacobs a look at a better class of hitters, and giving him experience preparing for a high pressure postseason start seems like a great way to close out his 2026 season. He still has work to do on his command, and we’d like another bump on his velo next season, but he’s not too far from 50 future value (FV) status, and he’s pitching his best ball right now. I love the idea of challenging players when they’re in really good form, and I like the idea of giving players a look at the level they’ll tackle fully next year before the end of a season. It would be good for both Jacobs and the SeaWolves if the Tigers would send him to Cappuccilli to finish the season.

The other interesting option is to promote top prospect SS Bryce Rainer. It’s been a wild season for the recently turned 21-year-old who missed most of his pro debut in 2025 after an injury required shoulder surgery. A good defender with speed, a huge arm, a patient, possibly too patient, approach at the plate, and 70 grade raw power, Rainer has struck out a ton, walked a ton, and done a whole lot of damage since moving up aggressively to High-A in mid-April.

Because of the injury, Rainer had less than 50 games out of high school ball when he reached High-A West Michigan. That was a highly aggressive promotion, probably sparked as much by the need to play Jordan Yost at shortstop full-time in Lakeland as because Rainer was really ready to handle it. He struggled mightily in May, striking out a ton, and then in June went nuts, hitting six homers and posting a 1.140 OPS. Another slump followed in July, but in August and September the damage has been prodigious yet again, while at the same time, Rainer has struck out in just over 40 percent of his at-bats since August 1.

In contrast to Jacobs, this isn’t really a case of a guy in the midst of a breakout. Rainer is still hammering fastballs and the occasional breaking ball or offspeed mistake, and doing a lot of damage. However, he’s also swinging and missing a fair amount, and taking an incredible amount of called third strikes. It’s a really strange combination. His 14.2 percent whiff rate isn’t good, but it’s not egregious for a power hitter at that level. Particularly one this young and inexperienced. However, his 19.8 percent called strike rate says he’s still taking a whole lot of pitches for strikes. Even accounting for a lesser caliber of umpiring, that’s a lot of called strikes.

It’s hard to call his approach passive considering the violent fury and all fields power in his left-handed swing, but it’s actually true. Unless he sees something up in the zone that he likes, he often doesn’t swing even with two strikes. Rainer does not chase out of the zone much at all, just 20.9 percent of the time, which is outstanding. He’s gone through a litany of adjustments to his batting stance and overall hitting mechanics, which have gotten him back to making a lot of extremely hard contact up to 115 mph off the bat, but he doesn’t really defend the zone or alter his approach appreciably with two strikes. He just continues to wait for a fastball he can crush, and if a pitcher drops in a good breaking ball, changeup or splitter on him, good on them.

If Rainer is promoted, he’ll get to join his new teammates on a road trip to Reading, PA to play the Fightin Phils for six games to close out the regular season. You’re not promoting him straight into the postseason. He’ll have a week to get to know everyone before they tackle the Richmond Flying Squirrels at home on September 15 to start the postseason. And he wouldn’t necessarily take plate appearances away from Erie’s better hitters either. Peyton Graham is having a nice year, but he’ll be 26 in January and is hanging on as a possible utilityman prospect. He can play second base and he’s played some outfield, including center field as well. The SeaWolves do need him in the lineup, but Rainer is already a more consistent, solid shortstop anyway.

The Tigers should really move Jacobs up. Lucas Elissalt has been pitching well and I like him quite a bit too, but Jacobs would be the best pitcher on the squad. If he made two more starts he’d probably finish with 101-102 innings pitched on the year. That’s ideal for a college pitcher in his first pro season.

With Rainer it’s a lot less certain that he really helps the cause. There’s certainly a chance that he’d see a lot more pitchers challenge him, and that might go very badly for those pitchers. But he might also be carved up by pitchers that can throw strikes without feeding him many cookies for a while at that level. It just seems like a good experience to take into the offseason for him. He may well struggle with Double-A pitching, but this late in the year, the good Double-A pitchers have already moved up, and Rainer would face a lot of arms that were in High-A part of the year anyway. And he’s going to see them a lot more next year. Might as well get a good look now.

Rainer is a good bet to need a lot of Double-A time before he advances, but even if he doesn’t reach Triple-A until 2028, he’ll still only be 22 years old. That’s a perfectly brisk pace for all but the elite pure hitting prospects in the game. To me, it seems like a good idea to acclimate him a bit right now with a taste of high pressure baseball to take into the offseason. The Tigers have done a bit of this sort of thing before, so I just think there’s a fair chance Rainer gets the call.

The SeaWolves have played really well in the second half, despite only really having Zyhir Hope, Thayron Liranzo, and Elissalt on hand as really notable prospects. It would be good for the team, and probably for Jacobs and Rainer, to reinforce them now for the final push. Still, of the two, Jacobs is by far the more ready and impactful player for the SeaWolves roster right now. They could definitely use help in the rotation, so Jacobs at least seems like a good bet to get the call.

Sunday afternoon saw a terrific catch be Tyrone Taylor in left field, robbing a homer, as well as Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 40th homer. One of those two things has now happened by a left-handed hitter just twice in all of Cubs history. One of the things playing for the Cubs, be it PCA hitting his 40th homer of the season left handed or anyone who contributed to 62 Cub homers in August, is that when you talk about history, you are talking about 150 years. Being the first or even one of the first to do something is incredible. You’re talking about a century and a half of history.

And so it is that Pete Crow-Armstrong slowly drifts where no Cub has ever been. Sammy Sosa once had a season with 66 homers and 18 steals. As near as I can tell, that is the homer plus steals record by a Cub. Pete is now sitting at 73. His 40/30+ season is a Cub first. His 40 homers as a lefty is the second ever. Pete is a couple of months younger than Ernie Banks as the youngest Cub ever with 40 homers. He’s in some pretty rarified territory.

Unfortunately, none of that matter all too much on Sunday. Clay Holmes did not have his best stuff. To my untrained eye, this was a cruel matchup. Marlins starter Tyler Phillips threw several pitches at or below the strike zone. Holmes wasn’t working down near that low part of the strike zone. So the Marlins benefitted from several low strikes and it didn’t seem like the Cubs did much or at all. For what it’s worth, the Cubs broadcast said that home plate umpire Ben May grades out as pitcher friendly. The eye test wouldn’t argue. It was a throwback to ball from the 90’s that I remember watching with a wide strike zone. In this case, it was low. I didn’t wait to see the ump scorecard, but as near as I could tell watching the live broadcast, a few pitches in key spots went the Marlins way. It happens. I’m not trying to make excuses. They played well. The Cubs didn’t execute over and over. The team that played better won.

It’s certainly an unfortunate day. Combined with the historic homer, it’s a really tough day. A day that felt like one to celebrate so quickly turned to a lopsided game in the other direction. For whatever reason, Holmes was off. It looked to me, again, a lay person, that he had a ton of arm side run on his pitches and an awful lot of them were ending up out of the strike zone. Obviously, that’s all very easy for me to say and I’ve no doubt if there was some simple mechanical thing that could be cleaned up, the Cubs would have cleaned it up.

It’s always tough though when a game like this happens. Holmes has felt so invincible. No one is ever fully impervious to an off day. Holmes wasn’t. And this one just got away. You hate to see it, but really it is what it is. Cub pitchers walked six batters, three of those scored. They hit a batter and that one scored. So they really gave away a ton of runs in this one. The entire team is built around not walking hitters and making plays defensively. The team isn’t really strong enough to survive when either of those things go awry.

On to Milwaukee. Hopefully the Cubs can grab a couple of wins there.

Three positives:

• Nothing really more positive than Pete Crow-Armstrong with a homer and a sacrifice fly on the day. Another good day in one of the best seasons any of us will ever witness.
• Seiya Suzuki had a double and drew a walk in the game.
• Daniel Palencia worked the eighth inning and got a strikeout and a double play around a walk. It’s unfortunate to see him working in such a lopsided game, but there isn’t a lot of runway left for him to get right.
• A hat tip to Shelby Miller and Justin Steele putting in different kind of work over the weekend as they try to get a look with the big club before playoff rosters are set. Both men have had difficult journeys back to a major league mound and have had to put in a ton of work. Both men appear close to a return.

Game 144, September 6: Marlins 10, Cubs 3 (81-63)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Michael Conforto (.093). 1-3, BB
• Hero: Tyrone Taylor (.092). 1-3, 2B
• Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.090). 1-3, HR, SF, 2 RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Clay Holmes (-.547). 4.1 IP, 23 BF, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 ER, 2 K (L 2-3)
• Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.084). 1-3, DP
• Kid: Michael Busch (-.077). 0-3

Note: Preliminary indication has Holmes as a bottom 10 WPA score of the year, possibly checking in ninth or tenth.

WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s game tying homer with two outs in the fifth. (.142)

Marlins Play of the Game: Heriberto Hernandez’ solo homer in the bottom of the fourth gave the Marlins the lead. (.132)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 143 Winner: Ryan Zeferjahn with 70 of 98 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +26.5
• Alex Bregman +26
• Michael Conforto +14
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Javier Assad +12
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Nico Hoerner -14
• Seiya Suzuki -15
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -17.5

Scoreboard Watching: Brewers won (up 7 on Cubs). Braves won (4.5 up) over the Phillies (0.5 back). Diamondbacks won (5 back). Padres won (5.5 back). Dodgers won (5.5 up). Just under three weeks to go and it’s tight for the No. 1 seed overall in the NL and tight for each of the Wild Card slots. 2.5 games separate those top three teams. 5.5 games separate the next four teams. One team is going to miss landing in a chair when the music stops. If baseball ended today, that would be the Padres.

The Cubs move on to Milwaukee for the final three games of the regular season between the two NL Central rivals. The division is all but wrapped up, but both teams have plenty to play for. Matthew Boyd (8-3, 4.05) starts for the Cubs. Boyd allowed three runs in 5.1 innings against the Brewers last week and will be looking to improve on that.

Robert Gasser (4-5, 4.57) starts for the Brewers. He allowed two earned runs in 4.1 innings before departing a game between these teams last week. He too will be looking to improve. Like so many Brewers, his ERA is almost a full point better at home (4.05 in 8 starts) than on the road (5.01 in 9 games, 8 starts).

This is the best matchup on paper. Let’s go get the first one.

One week ago, the Orioles were flying high. They were in the midst of a successful road trip that had them back to .500 for the first time since April and just half a game out of the AL’s final wild card spot. Colton Cowser’s walk-off web gem in Colorado felt like a sign from the universe that, despite how “rocky” the season had been to this point, it was all gonna work out.

Fools! All of us.

Since the moment that ball hit Cowser’s glove above the center field fence in Denver, the Orioles are 0-6. They have been outscored 25-13, been shutout twice, own an OPS of just .558, and have seen their playoff aspirations go up in smoke.

As of this writing, the Orioles are now four games back of the AL’s final wild card spot. Baseball Reference gives them just a 4.4% chance to the make the postseason. It’s not an impossible path, especially with a series against the Guardians starting this afternoon, but let’s not kid ourselves. It’s not happening for this club. They’ve treaded water all season, and this most recent series against the Red Sox is what finally made them drown.

As a fan, it’s heartbreaking to see this team you care so much about totally collapse with a postseason chance on the line. But at the same time it’s hard to not feel some sort of relief in knowing that this frustrating season is coming to an end with a bit of closure. There’s no one moment or circumstance to be pointed to and said “Well, if they had just avoided that, everything would have come together.” No. This team was never going to figure it out.

Hopefully it will also be a sign to the Orioles organization that they have a lot internal reflection to do this winter.

It was easy enough coming out of 2025 for the front office to point fingers several different places to avoid blame. There were injuries up and down the roster. Several young players in prominent roles were still growing. The starting rotation was just missing a piece or two. On and on the list could have gone.

It’s tough to run that same “analysis” back after this season. Sure, there were injuries again, but that’s true for every team. Those young players that were supposed to continue their upward ascension have stalled as supporting cast rather than emerging stars. And the rotation added three pieces, including one that was handed a long-term deal and has stayed healthy all summer.

The outcome has been a team that runs (mildly) hot and (ice) cold, but is inherently flawed.

The biggest failure has come in the assembly of the offense. It was supposed to be a juggernaut that carried the team. Instead, they rank 15th in MLB in runs scored, 11th in home runs, 26th in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, and 23rd in slugging percentage. An absolute disaster.

It’s even worse if you look at some of the individual performances. Gunnar Henderson (99 wRC+), Samuel Basallo (99 wRC+), Colton Cowser (94 wRC+), and Jackson Holliday (88 wRC+) have all been disappointments. That’s not to say that have all been consistently bad. There have been moments where each of them has shown their promise, but they were supposed to be the core of an unstoppable, homegrown lineup.

Those struggles may reveal a deeper organizational problem. The development of young bats at the minor league level is what had evaluators around baseball excited about the Orioles future. The club had prioritized those types of prospects and had done well to groom them through the farm system. But now, almost all of them are hitting a wall once reaching the majors. Henderson even had years of success at the highest level and now looks like a shell of himself. Holliday has never performed like the future star he was supposed to be. Cowser at least has developed into an elite defender in center. Basallo deserves a little grace given his injury woes that followed a solid start to the season. Regardless, alarm bells should be going off in the warehouse.

As a group, these Orioles simply don’t do anything particularly well on offense. They are a subpar “three true outcomes” team years after that approach has fallen out of fashion. It’s a brutal brand of baseball to watch, and it doesn’t even come with the desired outcome of regularly scoring a bunch of runs. Rather it turns into recurring and extended slumps where opposing pitchers mow through the lineup with ease because when the walks and home runs aren’t stacking they have nowhere else to turn.

There have been positives, of course. Pete Alonso (140 wRC+, 33 home runs) has been worth the big contract he earned over the winter. Blaze Alexander (121 wRC+), when healthy, has emerged as a useful contact-oriented utility piece that can fit all over the field. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (124 wRC+) came up late in the year and filled the black hole that opened at third base after Jordan Westburg’s preseason injury. Coby Mayo has become a left-handed pitcher’s nightmare (209 wRC+ vs. LHP) while starting to improve his approach against righties as well. Maybe the Orioles do have something on their hands there. But the bad continues to outweigh the good.

The degree to which the Orioles botched the construction of their lineup has obscured the progress made on the pitching side of things.

Shane Baz (3.5 fWAR) and Trevor Rogers (3.2 fWAR) have been two of the 25 most valuable starting pitchers in MLB this year. Kyle Bradish has faded recently, but has been generally solid in his first season back after Tommy John surgery, and is now signed in Baltimore long term. Brandon Young has been so much more valuable than could have been expected, and now seems like a lock for the 2027 rotation. The group will need to add an arm of some significance this offseason, especially if Rogers signs elsewhere, but the building blocks for a good group are there.

At the same time, the Orioles bullpen has turned into one of the better and deeper units in the sport. Their 5.0 fWAR is seventh-best in MLB, and they also rank in the top 10 in ERA (3.91), xERA (3.65), and FIP (3.81). Is there any one single dominant arm in the bunch? Eh, not so much, but few teams can turn to this many different options with at least some level of confidence, and they expect to have fully healthy versions of Félix Bautista and Ryan Helsley in 2027. Again, this is a solid starting point

But how much credit should the front office get for the pitching when the part of the team that was supposed to be their calling card, the lineup, has been such a problem?

Many in the fan base have been calling for Mike Elias’ head for a while now, dating back to the offseason that followed the team’s meltdown in the second half of 2024. Those cries grew louder last winter, and they may be at all-time high right now.

It is possible that Elias gets the boot this offseason. After all, he is the architect of this team, and it sounds like his boss isn’t thrilled with recent events. Orioles’ control person David Rubenstein described himself as “embarrassed” by the team’s decline. Those comments came after a winter that saw him pony up cash for Alonso’s big deal and an extension for Baz, plus recent long-term deals for Basallo and Bradish.

At the same time, Rubenstein has generally been complimentary of Elias and evidently feels confident in the team’s process, even if the results have not been ideal. Add in what is expected to be an atypical offseason for MLB amid a labor dispute, and you could start to see the ownership group preferring stability for another year.

Whatever happens, a shakeup of some kind should be the bare minimum to expect. Maybe that means Elias needs new voices in the room and moves on from his friend Sig Mejdal or others. Or maybe it means the introduction of a General Manager that is separate from Elias and his “President of Baseball Operations” title, to at least provide an external perspective, though Elias would still be the lead executive in that scenario. Or they could try another coaching staff churn, though that hasn’t changed much the last couple of seasons.

At the moment, it’s unclear what the plan will be. But what is unquestioned is that the Orioles have burned through what was supposed to be a return to greatness. Elias and his crew have failed at their stated goal of building a perennial winner in Baltimore. They should not be rewarded for that. That may not mean Elias himself has to go, but there absolutely has to be change coming.

Two wildcard hopefuls meet at Camden Yards for three games beginning today.

The Guardians are 73-71 and a -14 run differential, since August 4th 14th in team wRC+ at 98 wRC+, 21st in baserunning runs above average at -0.9, fourth in Defense at 2.2, 16th in starting pitcher ERA 4.06 (4.31 FIP), and fifth in bullpen ERA at 3.07 ERA (2.83 FIP).

The Orioles are 69-75 and a -29 run differential, since August 4th 18th in team wRC+ at 96 wRC+, 20th in baserunning runs above average at -0.9, 19th in Defense at -3.2, 14th in starting pitcher ERA at 4.15 (4.10 FIP), and fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.09 (3.43 FIP).

Can’t say this series looks awesome on paper. But, it’s time for the backend of the Guardians rotation to figure things out and for their hitters to be better.

Matchups:

Game One, Monday, 1:35PM ET: Cantillo, LHP vs. Rogers, LHP

Game Two, Tuesday, 6:35PM ET: Bibee RHP vs. Young RHP

Game Three, Wednesday, 6:35PM ET: Griffin, LHP vs. Baz, RHP

Since August 4th, watch out for Pete Alonso at 179 wRC+, Coby Mayo at 147 wRC+, Gunnar Henderson at 129 wRC+, Colton Cowser at 113 wRC+, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at 111 wRC+.

Meanwhile since August 4th, the Guardians have been led by Chase DeLauter 171 wRC+, Angel Martinez 131 wRC+, Steven Kwan 127 wRC+ and Patrick Bailey 113 wRC+. They are gonna need something from Nathaniel Lowe, Jo Adell, Jose Ramirez and Travis Bazzana to win this series. Oh, and let Rocchtember continue.