The postseason is upon us, and while a Mets-Dodgers Wild Card series would have been a great way to kick it off, especially bookended against the Yankees-Red Sox matchup, this still figures to be a wild October.
That is, it feels like anybody could win it all after a season in which no team won 100 games, and the expected super-team Dodgers have to fight their way through a Wild Card series.
With that in mind, here are nine bold playoff predictions:
Brewers can't get it done
It’s a nice story, the small-market Brewers posting the best record in baseball this season, with 97 wins, but their history of failure in the postseason in recent years puts a lot of pressure on them going into October, and I think it will be more of the same.
They’re the ultimate grind-it-out team, putting the ball in play, out-hustling teams on a daily basis. But talent usually wins in the postseason, and the San Diego Padres, after defeating the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round, will simply out-talent them.
Garrett Crochet sets the tone
Crochet had a Cy Young-worthy season coming over to Boston, and he dominated the Yankees along the way, going 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA in four starts against them. The Yanks scored five runs in one of his starts but only five combined in the other three, including a seven-inning gem in the Bronx in August.
As such, I think he sets the tone for the Wild Card series by winning Game 1 at Yankee Stadium, outpitching Max Fried and dominating through seven innings.
Aaron Judge struggles, Yankees lose
Judge had his moments against the Red Sox this season, with five home runs and a 1.008 OPS in 13 games against them, but he also struck out 22 times in 56 plate appearances as Boston pitchers attacked him inside. And Crochet was especially tough on him, so I think the Yankees’ captain will have to wait a little longer for his breakout October.
And as well as the Yanks finished the season, it’s hard to forget how poorly they played against good teams for most of the season, or that the Red Sox were especially tough on them, winning nine of 13 games -- including five of seven in the Bronx.
It should be an entertaining series, likely going three games, but I think the Yankees’ bullpen will cost them at least one game, and it’s hard not to like Alex Cora over Aaron Boone in such a short series.
It’s Cal Raleigh’s year
It’s very close, but I’d give the MVP to Judge, who had another historic season, with a combination of high batting average and power that should be rewarded. Yet I think Raleigh will stamp this as his year with a big October, building on those 60 home runs he hit in the regular season.
Raleigh was clutch all season for the Mariners, slugging over .600 with an OPS over 1.000 hitting with runners in scoring position, with two outs and RISP, and high-leverage situations as well, as defined by Baseball Reference. So I’m saying he hits some big home runs that makes this a memorable October for him.
Dodger blues
The Los Angeles Dodgers were supposed to be unbeatable this season, after spending another gazillion dollars in the offseason, yet they won only 91 games, third-best among NL division winners, meaning they have to play a Wild Card series against the Cincinnati Reds.
As an aside, it’s a shame the Mets aren’t part of this. It would have made for great fun if they had done their part to earn the third Wild Card spot and give them a shot at knocking out the Dodgers in a rematch after last year’s NLCS.
I don’t give the Reds much of a chance, despite their strong starting pitching. The Dodgers should advance, setting up a big-stage NLDS against the Phillies. And while LA’s high-powered starting pitching is the healthiest it has been all season, it’s the bullpen -- their Achilles heel all season -- that will cost them a shot at repeating as champs.
The Dodgers’ pen had a 4.27 ERA this season, ranking 21st in the majors, with 26 blown saves. Tanner Scott, the most sought-after free agent reliever last winter, has been a bust, and there have been plenty of other culprits. As a result, LA may use starter Tyler Glasnow out of the 'pen, at least in the Wild Card series, as well as fellow starters Emmett Sheehan and Roki Sasaki, who was injured for most of the season.
Shohei Ohtani shines
It won’t be enough to save the Dodgers from a disappointing October, but Ohtani will stamp himself as the most remarkable player in baseball history, as he takes his two-way talents into the postseason.
To a large extent, Ohtani has already done that, hitting 55 home runs this season while returning to the mound from elbow surgery in the second half, pitching to a 2.87 ERA over 47 innings.
Now he’s expected to line up as the Dodgers’ No. 3 starter in the postseason, behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell. He seems built for the biggest moments, famously striking out Mike Trout to win the World Baseball Classic for Japan in 2023, and he’s a good bet to make this a memorable October, at least on a personal level.
Jhoan Duran the difference-maker
Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski rather famously has a win-now mentality as a GM, more willing than most these days to give up top prospects in pursuit of a championship. And the case in point this year was his trade deadline deal to get Duran from the Minnesota Twins.
That deal, along with the late-season signing of David Robertson, were just what the Phillies needed for a bullpen that has cost them in postseasons past. The Mets likely could have had Duran if they’d been willing to trade better prospects than they gave up for Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers, and it’s fair to say that decision was a big part of why they fell short of the postseason.
Duran hasn’t been perfect for the Phillies, but he’s been mostly dominant, pitching to a 2.18 ERA with 16 saves in his two months since the trade. And I think he’ll be big reason the Phillies win what should be a heavyweight NLDS against the Dodgers.
Kyle Schwarber steps up
Schwarber had regular a spectacular season, hitting 56 home runs and totaling 132 RBI, and his knack for delivering in the clutch (1.252 OPS with two outs and RISP) fees like it could put the Phillies over the top in the NL and get them to the World Series.
It would be quite a feat, considering they lost ace Zack Wheeler to a season-ending shoulder injury, but the Phillies have the depth in the rotation to overcome it, and they have a team of October-tested veterans that should thrive in this postseason.
So I have them knocking off both the Dodgers and Padres to get to the World Series, with Schwarber leading the way and setting himself up for a huge payday as a free agent this winter.
The Mariners? Yep, the Mariners
Why not? This might be the most wide-open postseason ever in baseball, with no super powers in sight, so in that sense it would be fitting for the Seattle Mariners to finally break through.
They’ve been underachievers for much of their existence, going all the way back to 2001, when they set the modern major league record by winning 116 games during the season, only to lose meekly to the Yankees in the ALCS in five games.
Since then they had only reached the postseason once before this season -- in 2022 -- and promptly got swept by the Houston Astros. But this year feels different. They went on a 17-1 roll in September to lock up the AL West title, sweeping the Astros in Houston last week to win the division.
With Raleigh leading the way, their offense is dangerous, and their strong starting pitching is mostly healthy after dealing with injuries during the season. But if Bryan Woo’s pectoral strain keeps him out of the rotation, that could hurt the Mariners’ chances.
All in all, it feels like anybody’s year. And nobody personifies anybody quite like the Mariners.