The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles wrap up a four-game set tonight, with the hosts sitting as a heavy -150 moneyline favorite behind left-hander Shane McClanahan.
But my Orioles vs Rays predictions are backing Baltimore to take the finale, with a reliable starter on the hill and its recent offensive surge proving to be key against McClanahan.
Who will win Orioles vs Rays today: Orioles (+140)
The Baltimore Orioles hand Brandon Young the ball tonight, and he has been reliable. The right-hander owns a respectable 3.76 FIP over his last five appearances while allowing just 0.92 HR/9 and a 35.6% hard-hit rate.
On the other side, Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane McClanahan has a 4.87 xERA over his previous three starts. While he has not allowed many homers, the left-hander has walked 4.85 hitters per nine innings, which is dangerous against a thriving Orioles offense with a 120 wRC+ over the last week.
McClanahan is making his first start since leaving his last outing on July 30 due to mid-back soreness.
Tampa Bay is also swinging it well, but Baltimore’s 103 wRC+ against lefties gives the Orioles an edge.
Play this down to +120.
COVERS INTEL: Young has also performed better on the road, posting a 3.44 FIP compared to a 4.35 mark at home. That gives Baltimore another edge as an underdog.
Orioles vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-112)
This total sits low at 7.5, and I’m targeting the Over with both lineups rolling. Baltimore’s wRC+ is well above average right now, and the Orioles also own a respectable .187 ISO over their last six contests.
Tampa Bay’s offense has been even hotter, posting a 134 wRC+ over the last week while slugging 10 home runs. Neither starter has been completely lights out, so this game could reach 4-5 runs before the bullpens enter.
There is more vulnerability late, too. The Rays’ relief corps owns a 5.18 FIP over its last 23.1 frames, while Baltimore’s bullpen has been better but not untouchable.
I’ll play the Over up to -130.
Orioles vs Rays home run prediction: Pete Alonso (+414)
Pete Alonso is showcasing his power lately. He has smacked two homers over his last six games while posting a .318 ISO during that span.
Alonso also owns a 68.4% hard-hit rate and 15.5% barrel rate over the last week. While McClanahan has limited homers lately, he is not completely untouchable, and the Rays’ bullpen gives Alonso another clear path. Tampa Bay’s relief corps has allowed 1.93 HR/9 over the last week, presenting an opportunity for Alonso to punish a mistake late.
I’ll play this pick down to +400.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 50-62, -19.47 units
Over/Under bets: 62-47, +7.93 units
Orioles vs Rays weather
Weather should be a non-factor for Orioles vs. Rays because Tropicana Field is indoors. Even if outdoor conditions are warm and mostly clear, the controlled environment removes wind, humidity, rain, and ball-carry concerns. There should be no delay risk or meaningful weather impact on scoring.
Orioles vs Rays odds
Moneyline: Orioles +144 | Rays -150
Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+144)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)
Orioles vs Rays trend
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.40 Units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Rays.
How to watch Orioles vs Rays and game info
Location
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Date
Monday, August 17, 2026
First pitch
6:05 p.m. ET
TV
MASN, Rays.TV
Orioles starting pitcher
Brandon Young (9-3, 3.33 ERA)
Rays starting pitcher
Shane McClanahan (9-6, 3.09 ERA)
Orioles vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
CANADA - MAY 28: Strikes his aim: Dave Lemanczyk; who missed much of last season with an injury; opens the American League season tonight for Blue Jays against Seattle Mariners in th U.S. city. He says his only problem now is throwing strikes. (Photo by Doug Griffin/Toronto Star via Getty Images) | Toronto Star via Getty Images
Today marks Dave Lemanczyk’s 76th birthday.
Dave was a starting pitcher for the Blue Jays during their inaugural season. He started the second game in franchise history, recording the team’s first-ever loss.
He was a solid pitcher, selected from the Detroit Tigers in the Expansion Draft. The draft itself was something of a sucker’s bet; expansion teams got to choose from players the established clubs didn’t want. While we did get Jim Clancy, Ernie Whitt, Rico Carty, and Pete Vuckovich (who would later win a Cy Young, though not as a Jay), most of our selections were cast-offs.
Lemanczyk enjoyed a strong year, setting career highs in wins, starts, and innings pitched. He threw 252 innings, completed 11 games, won 13, lost 16, and posted a 4.25 ERA, leading the team in victories.
Dave was our Opening Day starter in 1978, but he made only 20 starts, finishing with a 4-14 record and a 6.26 ERA. The heavy workload from the previous season had taken its toll on his arm.
He bounced back in 1979, tossing a one-hitter against the Rangers in April. At the All-Star break, he was 8-5 with a 3.15 ERA and earned a spot on the All-Star team. However, after the break, injuries hampered his performance, and he finished the season 8-10 with a 3.71 ERA in 20 starts.
The Jays traded him to the Angels midway through the 1980 season. He was released after the year and retired from Major League Baseball at age 30, finishing with a 37-63 record (often pitching for struggling teams), a 4.62 ERA over 185 games, and 103 starts.
After his playing days, Dave became a scout for the Yankees but left after a couple of years to spend more time with his family. He briefly worked as an agent before opening a baseball academy and providing private lessons.
I don’t remember much about him, except that he was a big guy—listed at 6’4”. He’s one of those players I wonder about: what kind of career might he have had if managers had been more careful with pitchers’ arms? He’s someone I’d love to talk to and hear firsthand what it was like pitching for an expansion team.
Things didn’t get any better as Lemanczyk had a couple of run-ins with rookie manager Roy Hartsfield early on, and into the season.
“He set up so many fines that were just stupid,” he said. “I was the first guy fined. I skipped a parade so I could follow up on a great deal on apartment rentals (near Dunedin). There were around 10 units available and nine players ended up going in on it. We paid something like $400 a month, which was a much better deal than in the hotels they wanted us to stay in.”
Framber Valdez lines up against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has looked lost against lefties all season. On the other side, Dillon Dingler brings big right-handed power into a soft matchup with Carmen Mlodzinski.
Valdez and his ground-ball game headline a national-TV matchup as the Detroit Tigers visit the Pirates tonight. Detroit sits as a slim -116 favorite, with first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park.
The pitching matchup shapes my Tigers vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks, which back Detroit on the moneyline, lean Over the total, and target a Tigers slugger to go deep on Monday, Aug. 17.
Who will win Tigers vs Pirates today: Tigers moneyline (-116)
Framber Valdez draws a favorable matchup against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has struggled badly against left-handed pitching, and the Detroit Tigers moneyline is a manageable price to back. Pittsburgh is a strong offense against right-handers (.725 OPS) but much weaker against southpaws (.695 OPS).
Valdez carries a 4.26 ERA, but he allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts before his latest outing and recently tossed seven scoreless innings against Seattle. Pittsburgh counters with Carmen Mlodzinski, who owns a 3.79 ERA overall but has struggled to work deep, averaging only four innings per outing.
I’ll back the Tigers at close to a pick’em price, with Valdez holding a clear handedness edge and Mlodzinski unable to provide length.
I’d play Detroit to -125.
COVERS INTEL: The Pirates are just 10-26 in games started by left-handers and own a .689 OPS against southpaws, a glaring weakness with Valdez on the mound.
Tigers vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)
I’ll take the Over at plus money since neither starter has been reliable enough lately to lay juice on a low-scoring game.
Mlodzinski carries a 5.06 ERA over his last five appearances, including four runs in 2 1/3 innings against Miami and five in three innings against the Mets, and his short outings open an early path to a Pittsburgh bullpen that owns a 4.24 ERA.
Valdez gives Detroit the pitching edge, but he hasn’t been untouchable either, with a 4.97 ERA over his last five starts. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, enters hitting .262 over its last 10 games.
At 8.5 and +105, I’d rather bet on Mlodzinski’s recent struggles and offense developing on both sides than pay -116 on the Under.
I’d play the Over down to -105.
Tigers vs Pirates home run prediction: Dillon Dingler (+510)
Dillon Dingler has been Detroit’s most prolific home run hitter this season, and his matchup with Mlodzinski is a strong long shot. Dingler has hit 26 home runs, with 22 against right-handed pitching, and he’s batting .274 against RHP.
Mlodzinski’s four-seam fastball is the clear path to damage. Hitters are batting .324 and slugging .550 against the pitch, which carries a -5 Statcast run value and a 58.6% hard-hit rate. Dingler punishes four-seamers, slugging .554 against them with a +7 run value and a .599 expected slugging.
Dingler’s season-long power against righties and his ability to attack Mlodzinski’s weakest offering make this price worth a shot.
At +510, I’d play this to +450 for a quarter unit.
Ethan Diamandas' 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 1-2, -1.27 units
Over/Under bets: 1-2, -0.95 units
Tigers vs Pirates weather
PNC Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark with a spacious outfield, and tonight’s forecast leans the same way on a mild Pittsburgh evening. Those conditions suit Valdez’s ground-ball game and reinforce the case for the Tigers moneyline.
Tigers vs Pirates odds
Moneyline: Tigers -108 | Pirates +104
Run line: Tigers -1.5 (+150) | Pirates +1.5 (-156)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Tigers vs Pirates trend
The Over is 4-0 in Pirates' last 4 games as a home underdog, a run of high scoring that backs tonight’s Over 8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Pirates.
How to watch Tigers vs Pirates and game info
Location
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Monday, August 17, 2026
First pitch
7:05 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Tigers starting pitcher
Framber Valdez (7-8, 4.26 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcher
Carmen Mlodzinski (6-5, 3.79 ERA)
Tigers vs Pirates latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
05 August 2026, Spain, Calvia: People are swimming at Bendinat Beach on the island of Mallorca. After a July marked by numerous heat waves, the sea temperature is currently 29 degrees, according to data from AEMET (the Spanish Meteorological Agency). Photo: Clara Margais/dpa (Photo by Clara Margais/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Hickory starter Jesus Lafalaise threw six shutout innings, striking out six and walking three. Louis Marinar struck out two in a shutout inning. Michale Trausch allowed three runs in 1.1 IP, walking one.
Pablo Guerrero was 2 for 6 with a double. Paulino Santana and Marco Argudin each had a hit. Kaden Carpenter was 2 for 6 with a double. Dewar Tovar was 2 for 5 with a double and a walk. Curely Martha had a hit. Kolby Branch doubled.
Hub City starter Enrique Segura allowed two runs in three innings, striking out six and walking three. J’Briell Easley struck out one in a scoreless inning. Owen Proksch allowed a solo homer in an inning of work, striking out one.
Casey Cook was 1 for 3 with a double, a walk and a stolen base. Paxton Kling homered. Marcos Torres doubled.
For Round Rock, Marc Church allowed a run in two innings, striking out six and walking one. Ben Peoples struck out one in a scoreless inning. Emiliano Teodo threw a scoreless inning. Wilian Bormie struck out one and walked one in a shutout inning.
Rehabbing Danny Jansen was 2 for 3 with a walk and caught seven innings. Cam Cauley had a hit and a stolen base. Alejandro Osuna was 2 for 4 with a homer and a walk. John Taylor had a double and a pair of walks. Logan O’Hoppe doubled.
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 16: Carson Benge #3 of the New York Mets in action against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field on August 16, 2026 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Nationals 4-3. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Meet the Mets
Continuing their alarmingly-successful run in the aftermath of the trade deadline, the Mets sent the Nationals out of town with a three-game sweep.
The cleats Joshua Baez used to club three home runs in his first three trips to the plate as a major leaguer are heading to Cooperstown. The only problem is that the cleats technically aren’t even his.
TORONTO, ON - AUGUST 14: New York Yankees Manager Aaron Boone argues with home plate umpire Vic Carapazza and is ejected in the sixth inning during a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on August 14, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) | Getty Images
On Friday versus the Blue Jays, Aaron Boone was ejected for the 50th time in his managerial career. It’s fair to question if this feat or milestone is worth celebrating. Applying this situation to the real world, it would essentially be like getting to verbally abuse the health inspector as they walk through your restaurant with little repercussions. However, in the baseball world, choosing to take a stand and get tossed has long been viewed as a good way to “get the boys fired up” over the course of a long season.
Hitting number 50 places Boone in a tie for 25th all-time, albeit a far cry from Bobby Cox’s top mark of 162, and further builds on his tally as the Yankees all-time leader. Some of these ejections stand out more than others for their entertainment value. In the most American way possible, without condoning workplace bullying but still using it for my entertainment, I have selected the five most entertaining hooks of Boone’s managerial career.
In perhaps the most absurd ejection on Boone’s list, and maybe in baseball history, home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt threw Boone out just five pitches into the game after a weird hit by pitch and check swing question. The ejection caught everyone off guard as Boone was standing silently when the hook came. The actual chirping was coming from a fan sitting directly behind the Yankees dugout. Boone reacted in complete, animated bewilderment as this ejection had to stand despite his innocence.
In his rookie year as manager, Boone established his penchant for theatrical flair, or getting his money’s worth if he was going to get sent to the showers early. After screaming at umpire Nic Lentz, Boone dropped into a catcher’s crouch behind home plate to show the umpire how he was being tricked by the catcher, further mocking the umpire’s strike zone. Boone’s cap made contact with Lentz’s during the tirade getting Boone a fine and a suspension.
After being tossed by veteran umpire Laz Diaz, Boone didn’t just yell and stomp; he went full send. He repeatedly showed Diaz an imitation of his strike-three punch-out and getting all up in his personal space. Boone then channeled his inner Bob Ross and traced lines in the dirt to give us all our first preview of what ABS tracking would look like.
Furious over rookie umpire Brennan Miller’s strike zone, Boone charged out, clapped directly in the umpire’s face like Regina George at a lunch table, and then dropped the line on a hot mic that his hitters were “f-ing savages in that box.” Also, shout-out Brett Gardner, keep bangin’ Brett!
This remains Boone’s masterpiece and made a lot of people in the Yankee sphere some extra coin. Even more importantly, another generation of East Coasters were given the ability to freely use the “F” word in public as a quote.
Seven years after their legendary first encounter, Boone and Miller squared off again. Tension mounted early when Miller, positioned at second base, called Anthony Volpe out on a stolen-base attempt. Boone challenged, but the ruling stood after a lengthy replay review. Boone slammed his chewing gum onto the ground and spent the next half-inning barking expletives from the top step of the dugout.
The chaos peaked in the seventh inning when Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho made a diving catch that the Yankees suspected was trapped. Having already burned his lone replay challenge, Boone was entirely powerless to stop the third out. In a moment of pure, petty frustration, Boone looked out past the infield, locked eyes with Miller, and began shouting across the diamond.
Miller swiftly unleashed a massive hook, prompting Boone to sprint all the way out to second base for an explosive, nose-to-nose tirade. The sequel was personal. Old-school baseball theater.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 13: Garrett Mitchell #5 of the Milwaukee Brewers reacts to his RBI single past Edwin Diaz #3 of the Los Angeles Dodgers, scoring David Hamilton #6 to tie the game 4-4, during the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on August 13, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to week 21 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!
1. Milwaukee Brewers (77-48); 3-4 this week; 100.0% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)
The Brewers held their own on the West Coast, as they followed up a three-game sweep at the hands of the Padres to win three of four against the Dodgers, keeping them five games ahead of the Cubs in the division.
Four players homered for Milwaukee this week, while Jake Bauers and Jackson Chourio tied for the team lead with eight hits apiece, including two doubles each. Joey Ortiz and Gary Sánchez both homered and had a double, with Ortiz leading the team with four RBIs. Andrew Vaughn added seven hits, including a double.
Logan Henderson turned in a pair of solid starts, totaling 13 1/3 innings with four runs allowed and a team-high 13 strikeouts. Jacob Misiorowski and Dustin May each had a quality start, as Miz went six innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts, and May went seven innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts. Grant Anderson, Aaron Ashby, Trevor Megill, and the now DFA’d Lyon Richardson combined for 8 1/3 scoreless innings for the bullpen, striking out five.
Milwaukee gets an off day on Monday before hosting the Mariners and Braves for three games each this week.
2. Chicago Cubs (72-53); 3-3 this week; 98.0% chance to make postseason
The Cubs, who were red hot entering this week, cooled off over the weekend. After winning the first two games in Washington against the Nationals, they dropped the series finale before dropping two of three against the Cardinals over the weekend.
Alex Bregman suddenly looks like the guy Chicago gave $175 million to, as he picked up four more homers as part of a six-hit, five-walk week. Pete Crow-Armstrong added a pair of homers, as did Seiya Suzuki, who also led the team with eight hits, including four doubles.
Clay Holmes had what was easily the best start of the week, earning the win as he went 6 2/3 scoreless frames with one hit and one walk, striking out three. Trent Thornton and Jacob Webb were the only bullpen arms to not allow a run (unless you count catcher Carson Kelly), totaling 4 1/3 innings as Webb also collected a pair of saves. Former Brewer Aaron Civale was also solid in two relief appearances, allowing one run and striking out five across 5 1/3 innings.
Chicago now faces their cross-city rival White Sox at Wrigley Field before an off day on Thursday. They’ll then visit the Mariners in Seattle over the weekend.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (63-61); 4-2 this week; 8.6% chance to make postseason
The Cardinals have had a nice month of August thus far, winning four consecutive series as they went 2-1 against both the Phillies and Cubs this week.
Joshua Báez had arguably the greatest MLB debut ever on Saturday, becoming the first player to ever homer three times in their debut. Alec Burleson had the best week overall for St. Louis, going 9-for-22 with two homers, three doubles, and 12 RBIs. Blaze Jordan, Jordan Walker, and Everson Pereira also homered.
Andre Pallante went six scoreless innings in his start, striking out a pair, while Kyle Leahy (five innings, one run, six strikeouts), Matthew Liberatore (5 1/3 innings, two runs, six strikeouts), Michael McGreevy (six innings, three runs (all unearned), six strikeouts), and Hunter Dobbins (two starts, 10 innings, five runs (three earned), 13 strikeouts) also had solid weeks in what was a great week for the rotation as a whole. Justin Bruihl, Luis Gastelum, Riley O’Brien, and Peter Strzelecki combined for 11 2/3 scoreless innings and 10 strikeouts out of the bullpen.
St. Louis now heads to Cincinnati to play five games in four days (including a makeup doubleheader on Monday) before three games against the Phillies in Philadelphia this weekend.
4. Cincinnati Reds (59-64); 3-3 this week; 0.2% chance to make postseason
The Reds turned in another .500 week, taking two of three from the White Sox in Chicago before dropping two of three to the Marlins at home.
Tyler Stephenson and Eugenio Suárez both slugged a pair of homers, with Ke’Bryan Hayes, Matt McLain, and Sal Stewart adding a homer apiece. Stewart also led the team with eight hits this week, with four RBIs and four runs scored.
Chase Burns continues to dominate, as he went seven scoreless frames, allowing four hits and no walks while striking out seven to pick up the win. Luis Mey went four scoreless innings across three relief appearances, Brock Burke went 2 2/3 scoreless innings, Pierce Johnson went 1 2/3 scoreless, and Emilio Pagán collected a pair of saves in his two appearances.
Cincinnati now hosts the Cardinals for five games in four days before visiting the Diamondbacks next weekend.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (61-65); 3-3 this week; 3.7% chance to make postseason
The Pirates had a solid .500 week, dropping two of three to the Marlins in Miami but bouncing back to take two of three from the Red Sox in Pittsburgh.
Rafael Flores had a big week for Pittsburgh, with seven hits, including three homers, driving in eight. Jacob Gonzalez, Brandon Lowe, and Jared Triolo each homered, and Esmerlyn Valdez led the team with nine hits, including three doubles.
Braxton Ashcraft turned in a complete game, allowing one run on three hits and a walk, striking out 10. Bubba Chandler also earned a win with two runs allowed over five innings, while Paul Skenes took the loss with two runs allowed (one earned) over five innings. Wilber Dotel, Mason Montgomery, Yohan Ramírez, and Gregory Soto combined for 8 1/3 scoreless innings for the bullpen, striking out 11.
Pittsburgh now hosts the Tigers for three games before an off day on Thursday. They then head west to visit the Dodgers in Los Angeles.
St. Louis (63-61) and Cincinnati (59-64) meet at the Great American Ball Park for an untraditional five-game series due to make up games. The Cardinals are 5-3 against the Reds this season, but Cincinnati won the previous series, 2-1.
This matchup also features the two frontrunners for National League Rookie of the Year, Sal Stewart and JJ Wetherholt. The Cardinals' Wetherholt is the slight favorite despite Stewart having the hotter bat in the second half of the season.
In August, the Reds are hitting an MLB-worst .191 as a team and ranks 24th or worse in OPS, OBP, and SLG. However, Cincinnati has brought power with 20 home runs (T-6th), but only 51 runs scored over 14 games (24th). The pitching staff owns a 4.51 ERA (24th) in August as well.
St. Louis has won four of the last five games and outscored their opponents, 28-9. The Cardinals offense has been top 10 this month in a lot of categories, including batting average (.257) and 71 runs scored (T-9th).
Let’s dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Cardinals at Reds
Date: Monday, August 17, 2026
Time: 1:40 PM EST
Site: Great American Ball Park
City: Cincinnati, OH
Network/Streaming: ESPN / MLB TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Cardinals at the Reds
The latest odds as of Monday:
Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals (-112), Cincinnati Reds (+104)
Spread: Cardinals -1.5 (+135), Reds+1.5 (-163)
Total: 9.5
Probable starting pitchers for Cardinals at Reds
Monday's pitching matchup (August 17): Quinn Matthews vs TBA
Jordan Walker is hitting .313 in August (15/48) with nine RBI
Alec Burleson is hitting .340 in August (17/50) with six home runs and 19 RBI
JJ Wetherholt is hitting .170 in August (8/47) with 14 walks and seven strikeouts
Sal Stewart is hitting .283 in August (15/53) with three home runs and seven RBI
Elly De La Cruz is hitting .137 in August (7/51) with eight walks, eight RBI, and 14 strikeouts
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Cardinals at Reds
St. Louis is 68-56 ATS, ranking fifth-best
Cincinnati is 63-60 ATS
St. Louis is 49-68-7 ATS, ranking last
Cincinnati is 64-57-2 to the Over, ranking seventh-best
St. Louis is 33-25 ATS on the road, ranking second-best
Cincinnati is 29-34 ATS at home, ranking eighth-worst
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Cardinals and the Reds
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Monday's game between the Cardinals and the Reds:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Reds on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Reds at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Under on the Game Total of 9.5
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Though the Braves have had their share of struggles over the past few weeks, they continue to find ways to ensure the struggles do not last too long. That was the story this weekend, as even though the Braves lost the series, they were able to avoid a sweep due a big hit from Matt Olson. And when it comes to Matt Olson, him consistently delivering big hits has been the story all year. Hopefully, the rest of the offense catches back up soon.
Morel wasn't the only minor league movement on Sunday: Top prospect Elian Peña was promoted to High-A Brooklyn, and Émilien Pitre was bumped up to Syracuse
Speaking of Syracuse, Jonah Tong allowed just one run and struck out six in his latest outing
Baseball: NLCS Playoffs: Los Angeles Dodgers Tommy John (25) victorious after winning Game 4 and series vs Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia, PA 10/8/1977 CREDIT: John Iacono (Photo by John Iacono /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X21821 TK2 R13 F31 )
Tommy John died on Saturday at age 83, remembered for his astonishing 26 years of pitching in the big leagues and for being the first to undergo the elbow construction surgery that bears his name.
“We did a little surgery, but the man did all the hard work,” Jobe said at a Hall of Fame ceremony honoring his medical career in 2013, the year before he died at age 88. “His tenacity and unique intelligence enabled us to develop the rehab program that has lasted the test of time.”
In his obituary of John, Joe Posnanski asked, “What pitcher in the last 75 years has changed the game more?”
On the Effectively Wild podcast last week, Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley had a tribute to John on Friday’s episode, looking back 50-plus years on the impact of his eponymous elbow surgery and how the left-hander pitched so long in the majors (including six seasons for the Dodgers, not counting the 1975 season he missed after surgery).
Sam Miller at his Pebble Hunting newsletter used a 13-year-old tweet of his, “Vin Scully called MLB games the same year that Connie Mack managed MLB games. Mack was born 10 weeks after the Emancipation Proclamation,” to try to come up with the extension of this time span, in other words what is something that overlapped with the end of Scully’s career (his final year broadcasting was 2016) that will still be around decades from now.
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 16: Wyatt Langford #36 of the Texas Rangers catches a fly ball of the bat of Jonah Heim #15 of the Athletics during the bottom of the second inning at Sutter Health Park on August 16, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Scott Marshall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A’s 5, Rangers 2
What a disappointing game.
And what a disappointing road trip.
This is one of those instances where I struggle to come up with something to say.
Cody Bradford was okay. He gave up a two run home run to Lawrence Butler that I thought was foul while watching it, but which apparently wasn’t. Those were the only two runs he gave up in four innings.
He had a fair amount of traffic he was dealing with throughout the game, and was maybe a little lucky to have allowed just two runs — a pair of caught stealings helped Bradford out.
Caught stealings? Caughts stealing? I’m not sure.
Zach Gelof, who I thought was a hobbit, made the difference in the game with a two run homer off of the newly activated Jakob Junis. Then Peyton Gray allowed a homer to Tommy White in the eighth to make us feel a little worse.
Tommy White, aka Tommy Tanks, legendary LSU slugger and 2024 second round pick of the A’s, had had 100 major league plate appearances without a home run prior to going deep off of Gray in the eighth.
I mean, you knew he was going to go deep eventually, but it didn’t have to be against the Rangers.
Or maybe it did have to be against the Rangers. Maybe the fates were aligned such that Tommy White was going to get his first home run against the Texas Rangers, and there was nothing any of us mere mortals could do about it.
The Rangers offense was bad, but then, you’re probably used to that by now.
Jake Burger was 3 for 4 with a homer and an RBI fielder’s choice. The rest of the team was 4 for 28 with a double and a pair of walks.
At least the Astros lost, meaning the Rangers are just two games back of first place still, somehow.
And are a half game back of the Orioles for the third Wild Card spot.
Sigh.
Cody Bradford hit 90.0 mph with his fastball, averaging 88.5 mph. Chase Silseth touched 96.0 mph with his fastball. Tyler Alexader’s sinker reached 92.2 mph. Jakob Junis maxed out at 93.5 mph with his fastball. Peyton Gray’s fastball topped out at 94.1 mph. Cole Winn threw three sliders, the fastest of which was 86.5 mph.
Jake Burger had a 104.9 mph home run had a 104.2 mph single. Elias Diaz had a 103.9 mph fly out. Justin Foscue had a 100.9 mph fly out.
Off day Monday for us to wallow in our misery. Oh boy.
CINCINNATI, OHIO - JUNE 13: Manager Terry Francona of the Cincinnati Reds relieves Rhett Lowder #25 in the sixth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Great American Ball Park on June 13, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Call me a bad fan, but I did not realize the Cardinals had a doubleheader today until I sat down to write this article. And because there’s a doubleheader, I’m going to share something I noticed when I looked at the matchups: the Reds are not in a good position to have a doubleheader or play 5 games in 4 days. They are entering today with a very taxed bullpen.
Yesterday, they lost 7-1 but they were in the game until the 9th inning, so they still used some of their high leverage relievers. Nick Lodolo pitched in his second game since coming off the IL, so I assume he was on some kind of pitch count. He only threw 73 pitches in 5 scoreless innings. His replacement, Julian Garcia, threw 2 scoreless innings of his own, however it required 35 pitches. That would seemingly knock him out of tomorrow’s game and probably in an ideal world Tuesday as well. But I think they’ll be forced to pitch him Tuesday and possibly tomorrow as you will soon see.
Tejay Antone came into a 0-0 game in the top of the 8th inning. He got the first two guys out, then allowed a homer. Next: error, single, walk, walk. He needed 30 pitches and they took him out. Antone has been massively overworked. He threw 11 pitches on Saturday, 16 pitches on Thursday, and 9 pitches on Tuesday. That’s four games in six days, and back-to-back days coming off a 30 pitch outing. He has to be out for tomorrow as well, and ideally Tuesday. But I think he might be forced to pitch Tuesday.
Replacing Antone was Ron Marinaccio, who got the last out of the inning, and then needed an additional 43 pitches to get through a 5-run 9th inning. He is almost certainly getting DFA’d before tomorrow’s games, because they picked up him off waivers two weeks ago and they let him throw 47 pitches. He also threw 21 pitches on Saturday. 68 pitches in two days, they clearly have no future plans with him.
Out of their 8-man bullpen, two of them should be out today, and as of now, a third will presumably be replaced. Sam Moll, who averages less than an inning per appearance, threw Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. Pitching tomorrow would mean four of the last six days, and he’s almost certainly pitching tomorrow, and then he’ll be tricky to put into games for Tuesday and Wednesday. Luis Mey pitched Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. He also can pitch tomorrow, but you can only pitch every other day for so long. Pierce Johnson is the same, although he threw under 10 pitches in each of his appearances, weirdly. He’s not very good so that may play a role. Brock Burke has gotten two days off, though pitched 3 of 4 before that. I’m sure he’ll be relied upon heavily in this series. Lastly, closer Emilio Pagan is fairly fresh, but I think he’s being used in exclusively save situations, however if there is not a save situation, I think he’ll have to pitch tomorrow.
Which brings us to the replacements. I do not know who is getting called up to replace Marinaccio. Tony Santillan is a strong possibility, with two pretty good rehab appearances, but the timing is a bit awkward. He threw an inning on Friday and yesterday. Are you really going to immediately throw him 3 out of 4 coming off an injury? Wouldn’t be my first choice.
They have three relievers on the 40 man. Connor Phillips has been in AAA since May and he also threw an inning yesterday. Unless the Reds have very poor communication with the AAA team, I feel like you don’t throw Phillips in yesterday’s game if you have any intention of using him in a doubleheader. The two realistic candidates to me seem to be Zach McCambley and Zach Maxwell. Neither has pitched in a few days. Maxwell has unspeakably bad numbers, so McCambley emerges as my only real choice. It is possible they plan for both, but will option one of them after game one. If either of these guys pitches, it should be good news for Cardinals batters.
Taking the start tomorrow would seemingly be Chase Petty. It hasn’t been announced as of this writing, but neither Julian Aguilar nor Jose Franco has appeared in a game, minors or majors, since July. Chase Solesky was claimed off waivers earlier this month, so I suppose you can throw him in the reliever group since he’s only appeared in relief for the Reds. Brandon Williamson made his first rehab start yesterday so he’s out. Petty is literally the only option and there is no way this bullpen could throw a bullpen game.
Another wrinkle however: I don’t think Petty is stretched out. He spent June and July in the MLB bullpen. He threw 1.2 innings on August 7th, got sent down, and then pitched on August 11th, where he faced 12 batters and allowed 5 runs in 1.2 IP. So I’ll be honest. No clue what the Reds are going to do in the game where Lowder doesn’t pitch. I feel like they need a starter and I feel like Petty is the only option, but he hasn’t thrown more than 50 pitches since June 4th so I don’t think he’ll throw many innings even if he does start.
Meanwhile the Cardinals are in a fairly good situation. Luis Gastelum is probably out for tomorrow, having thrown 2 innings. Caleb Ferguson threw 19 pitches and hadn’t pitched since Tuesday, so he’s clearly available even though we don’t want him to be. Gordon Graceffo pitched as well and threw 19 pitches but hadn’t thrown since Wednesday. Both can pitch tomorrow. Riley O’Brien, George Soriano, Justin Bruhl and Ryne Stanek all had light weeks, workload-wise. Peter Strzelecki is here to throw some mop-up innings as well, throwing 36 pitches on Friday, but nothing else in the past week. Pretty fresh bullpen.
They also have an actual starting pitcher in both games, which is helpful. I don’t expect Quinn Mathews to last deep into the game, but he at least can. I don’t Petty can. And Andre Pallante has thrown 6 or more innings in 11 of his 23 starts and he’s thrown less than 5 innings just once. He can eat innings and he’s got game two. Pretty good situation, certainly much better than the Reds current pitching situation.
The reason I decided to go over all this is because this is the kind of pitching situation that could affect more than just today’s game. The Cardinals need to take advantage. The Reds are going to need to use at least one of their pitchers for longer than they want, and the Cardinals should score off whichever pitcher that applies to. I think they’re saving Lowder for game two, but it would also be helpful if they worked his pitch count to its limit against Lowder and forced him out of the game early. They could really make things difficult for the Reds. All the minor league options are bad pitchers. This is the time to strike.
Joshua Baez
It would be foolish to overreact to two games, but I do kind of feel like the two games represent a microcosm of what to expect from Baez. Well sort of. I would be surprised if we have more 3-HR games in store. But generally speaking, it will be rather easy to know when you have to start Baez and the games where you can sit him. If a lefty is pitching, he starts. No question. If a righty is pitching, it’ll depend. Keep in mind they have to keep his PAs below 130. He can’t start every game anyway.
If you look at his minor league numbers, he is batting .294/.351/.745 against lefties. That is a staggering .451 ISO and 1.096 OPS. He has a 27.9 K% and 7.2 BB% against LHP. Against right-handed pitchers, he batted .246/.320/.539. That is a still very, very good .293 ISO, so it’s not like his power disappears. His K% rises to 30.6% and to be fair, his walk rate is also higher at 8.2%.
But broadly speaking, he strikes out less against lefties and has more power. This was true in 2025 as well. He didn’t strike out as much that year, but he had a 23.2 K% against RHP and a 16.9 K% against LHP. His ISO against LHP was .271 and his ISO against RHP was .187. He is undeniably a lefty masher and his MLB success will hinge on how he adjusts to right-handed pitching.
So Oli Marmol can look at the week ahead, see which games features left-handed starters and know Baez is penciled in for that game. And then he can structure his off days around that. This week, he will obviously start one of the two doubleheaders and then sit in the other one. Both probable starters are right-handed. Tuesday is Andrew Abbott, a lefty, so he’s got that game. The Cardinals have two very tough left-handed starters in Jesus Luzardo and Christopher Sanchez over the weekend, so it seems like a given he’d sit Saturday against Zack Wheeler. And I imagine he sits either Wednesday or Thursday and since Brady Singer is a clearly worse pitcher than Chase Burns and Baez would play four straight days, I would bet he sits Wednesday as well. (Burns is the scheduled pitcher)
I assume most of you know the deal, but just a warning: Joshua Baez will sit some games. He will also be on the bench as a pinch-hitting option on games where you sit him. It’s all a part of the plan. The Cardinals have 38 games left. If he played in every one of them and got 4 plate appearances per game – and we know that doesn’t happen since he’s played in two games and gotten 9 plate appearances – he would have 161 PAs. And again, I’m sure there will be games where a lefty reliever will be on the mound and Marmol will want to pinch-hit Baez. So he’s probably targeted for 25 starts the rest of this season.
Offense, do your thing, this is your series. Make it easy for the pitchers, although Great American Smallpark is never easy for pitchers.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - APRIL 30: Noah Cameron #65 of the Kansas City Royals smiles prior to making his MLB debut during a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field on April 30, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images) | Getty Images
“He was in command all day,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “It was efficient. The last two innings were probably the most stressful innings, and he made big pitches, getting strikeouts in the last couple innings there with the changeup. So, good for him. I mean, it’s exciting, and it was a big way for us to finish the road trip.”
It’s the first one-hit shutout by a Royals starter since franchise legend Zack Greinke on Aug. 30, 2009. This is also the second complete-game shutout by a Royals starter this season, with Stephen Kolek achieving the feat back in May.
Dobnak threw 25 changeups Saturday. He recorded two of his strikeouts with the offspeed pitch, getting Neto swinging to end the third inning.
“I mean, that felt pretty good starting out in the bullpen pregame and kind of just carried it into the game,” Dobnak said. “And sometimes, when I have that pitch going like that, I can pretty much spam it. It’s always a good pitch.”
Dobnak was a strike-one machine, landing the first pitch for a strike in 70% of the batters he faced. He primarily went to the sinker for the first pitch, using it 10 times, eight for strikes.
“First-pitch strike is probably the most important pitch you throw every game,” Dobnak said. “Just to get ahead of guys, it sets up the whole at-bat going forward.”
Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia should rejoin the team this week.
#Royals manager Matt Quatraro said both Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia are not playing today but are working out and will see how they feel after. Quatraro said if they’re feeling good, there’s a chance they can rejoin the Royals tomorrow.
To do so, it may require a difficult decision. Since July 29, Caglianone is first in Major League Baseball in wRC+ (222) and wOBA. He’s second in OPS, SLG, and AVG. That date is when first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino was placed on the injured list. In 2026, Caglianone has a .947 OPS as a first baseman versus .790 as a right fielder. He’s played right field just twice in 15 games since the Pasquantino IL stint started, and that shift has coincided with Jac becoming the hottest hitter in Major League Baseball. The Royals should make Caglianone their everyday first baseman even after Pasquantino returns. Of course, Caglianone could DH as well, but forcing the clear inferior hitter into a spot simply “because he’s been there for a while” makes little sense.
COVERS INTEL: Young has also performed better on the road, posting a 3.44 FIP compared to a 4.35 mark at home. That gives Baltimore another edge as an underdog. 
