Category: MLB

Eight weeks ago, I broke down the possible paths the Orioles might go down to have a successful offseason. One of the possibilities I laid out was some combination of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez and a big bat like Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso. That possibility seems set to come to fruition, with reports that Baltimore is the frontrunner to sign the former Astro, Valdez.

Should the Orioles secure the 32-year-old lefty from the Dominican Republic, it would not only transform the top of the O’s rotation but also create an interesting competition for the No. 5 spot. Depending on how new manager Craig Albernaz wants to structure his rotation, you’d expect Valdez, Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers to fill in the top three spots in some order. Then, high-risk, high-reward acquisition Shane Baz will likely slide into the No. 4 spot. With four potential options to round out the rotation, filling that No. 5 spot will be one of the hardest decisions facing Alby and the new coaching staff.

Option 1: RHP Dean Kremer

2025 stats: 11-10, 4.19 ERA, 171.2 IP, 142 Ks, 1.21 WHIP

I’ve consistently thought of Kremer as a pitcher you’d be happy to have as your No. 5 starter. Too often in the past, the Orioles have been forced to have Kremer take on a more important role in the rotation. In 2023, he was the Game 3 starter in the Orioles’ playoff series against Texas. In 2024, he was third in total starts and innings pitched and probably would’ve taken the ball in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series had the O’s made it that far. Last year, Kremer was the Orioles’ most consistently available starter, leading the team in innings pitched and strikeouts while making 31 appearances.

Heading into the 2026 season, Kremer finally has a chance to fill the role he was destined for. Given the other three options’ struggles with injuries (and on-field performance) in 2025, Kremer would come into spring training with the inside track on landing the final spot in the rotation. He should be the most stretched out of all Orioles pitchers, as he starts his competitive season earlier than most, headlining Team Israel’s rotation in the 2026 World Baseball Classic.

And not only would the fifth-starter role better fit Kremer’s “consistent, but rarely spectacular” brand of baseball, but it also may help Kremer avoid the early-season struggles that have plagued him in the past. Due to some extra rest days in the first month of the season, the fifth starter often doesn’t get a full complement of starts. That’d suit Kremer just fine, who sports a 6.24 ERA in March/April and a 3.88 ERA across all other months.

Option 2: RHP Zach Eflin

2025 stats: 6-5, 5.93 ERA, 71.1 IP, 50 Ks, 1.42 WHIP

While Kremer represents the steady, dependable option for the Orioles’ fifth starter, Eflin is the higher upside option. After a nine-start cameo in 2024 that saw him pitch to a 2.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 55.1 innings, Eflin came into last season as the Orioles Opening Day starter and de facto ace.

The first nine outings of his 2025 season were similarly encouraging. Eflin pitched to a 4.08 ERA, which went down to 3.02 if you removed an eight-run blow-up against the Nationals. Eflin then crumbled as he tried to gut through the effects of the back injury that ultimately ended his season. Over his final five outings of last season, Eflin put up an 11.29 ERA while allowing 37 hits and eight home runs over 18.1 innings.

The Orioles may choose to be cautious with the 10-year MLB vet, as he looks to bounce back from the fourth major back injury of his career. If the O’s slow play his build-up in the spring, he may fall behind Kremer in the early-season pecking order. However, if Eflin is fully healthy when the team leaves Sarasota in two months, he may get the nod based on his contract. Eflin is set to make $10M in 2025, compared to $5.75M for Kremer.

Option 3: LHP Cade Povich

2025 stats: 3-8, 5.21 ERA, 112.1 IP, 118 Ks, 1.50 WHIP

Povich was in a similar position last year and ended up breaking spring training as the Orioles’ No. 5 starter. What happened after that was a bit of a trainwreck for the 25-year-old southpaw. In Povich’s first 13 starts of the season, the lefty they call Slim posted a 5.15 ERA, gave up a .286 average against, and overall, struggled to string together decent outings.

Povich missed six weeks in the middle of the season with a hip injury and wasn’t much better when he came off the IL. In nine starts down the stretch, his ERA grew to 5.29, his batting average against remained in the .280s and he continued to give up home runs at an alarming rate. In fact, Povich’s 1.4 HR/9 rate would have been one of the 10 worst in all of baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

The former Nebraska Cornhusker does have two factors in his favor: youth and strikeout upside. Povich is at least four years younger than any of the other pitchers he’s competing against, meaning Albernaz and the new staff may want to give him another opportunity to maximize his upside. The coaching staff may also want another pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. Outside of Bradish, Povich was the only starter last year who posted a K/9 greater than nine.

Option 4: RHP Tyler Wells

2025 stats: 2-1, 2.91 ERA, 21.2 IP, 18 Ks, 0.88 WHIP

Wells is the ultimate wild card, as the Orioles could choose to use him in rotation, the bullpen or a hybrid, Albert Suárez-type role. The towering righty from Oklahoma has only pitched 27 innings over the last two seasons due to a UCL injury that required surgery, though not a full reconstruction. The fact that he moved back into the rotation last year upon his return from injury was a bit surprising, but his results justified it.

In four starts at the end of last season, Wells had two quality starts, limited opponents to a .213 batting average and only issued two walks in 21.2 innings. Home runs were a problem for him—he allowed a home run in each of his starts—but overall, he looked like pre-All-Star break, 2023 Tyler Wells again. If that’s the type of pitcher he can be over 25+ starts, he jumps to the front of the line for the Orioles fifth starter spot.

However, Wells’ biggest problem has always been his durability. After throwing 104.2 innings in the first half of 2023, he faded after the All-Star break. The former Rule 5 draft pick hit a wall in the second half, ultimately being demoted to Double-A midseason before being brought back as a reliever. Wells has never thrown 120+ innings in a season, and asking him to be a full-time starter may simply not be the best use of the innings the Orioles can get out of him.

Good morning.

Kennedi Landry has more on the prospect cost that the Texas Rangers shipped out to Washington to land left-hander MacKenzie Gore.

Shawn McFarland writes about Evan Carter’s health and how much the Rangers are counting on him becoming an everyday contributor.

And, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel unveiled his top 100 prospects list with Sebastian Walcott near the top and Caden Scarborough sneaking in at the bottom.

Have a nice day!

Good morning! We fans probably downplay the effect a trade has on a baseball player. Could you imagine how disrupting it would be if your employers could force you into a different job in a different city in an instant? But Payton Tolle isn’t too fazed by the trade rumors, which is just one thing he discussed during this great interview on MLB Network.

Talk about what you want, keep digging out from that snow, and be good to one another.

If it is late January on the the MLB Calendar, that means it is prospect lists galore. And for Cam Caminiti, it is further validation that he is emerging as one of the best young pitching prospects on the game. Both Keith Law and MLB Pipeline see the young southpaw as the Braves best prospect, and an arm that is moving up top 100 lists across baseball. It could really be a huge year for Caminiti, who is clearly the prize of the Braves farm.

Braves News

ESPN tabbed the Braves as being the most likely team to “bounce back” to contention in 2026. This prediction has some merit, as many projection systems still see the Braves as one of the top teams in baseball. Health and a return to normal production for many players is the key.

Jose Suarez was once again claimed by the Braves from the Orioles.

MLB News

Harrison Bader signed a two year deal with the San Francisco Giants.

Meet the Mets

Tim Britton and Will Sammon made their predictions on how the Mets’ roster will look.

Brian Murphy explained why Bo Bichette is not new to Carlos Mendoza, despite being new to the Mets’ organization.

Four Mets ended up in The Athletic’s Top 100 prospects list, including two guys in the Top 20.

Sam Dykstra picked out some Mets prospects who could end up cracking the Top 100.

Around the National League East

The Braves claimed reliever José Suarez off waivers and designated George Soriano for assignment to make room on the roster.

There could be a change to the Phillies’ lineup this year, specifically with where Bryce Harper is hitting.

Around Major League Baseball

Manny Randhawa listed the ten best games from the 2025 season.

Brian Murphy looked at 18 players who are on the rise in 2026, based on where they ranked on the list of Top 100 players.

Will Leitch ranked the 13 All-Stars on the Dodgers’ roster.

Bradford Doolittle explored five teams that could be poised for a break out in 2026.

David Adler outlined four keys to a bounce-back season for free agent starter Zac Gallen.

Many teams appear interested in free agent Lucas Giolito.

Old Friend Harrison Bader, who has played for both the Mets and Yankees, is signing with the Giants on a two-year deal.

Joe Ryan and the Twins agreed to a contract to avoid arbitration.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Lukas Vlahos graded the team’s acquisition of Luis Robert Jr.

Ryan Clifford came in at number 8 on the Amazin’ Avenue list of Mets’ prospects list.

This Date in Mets History

The Mets dealt Steven Matz to the Blue Jays for a package that featured Sean Reid-Foley, Josh Winchowski, and Yennsy Diaz on this date in 2021. On the same day, they signed Aaron Loup, who pitched in one season for New York and set a franchise record for fewest earned runs allowed (six) with at least 50 innings pitched.

Yesterday, we told you about the four Red Sox prospects who made their way into MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list: Payton Tolle, Franklin Arias, Connelly Early, and Kyson Witherspoon. Today, we have a new prospect ranking — this one from the Athletic’s Keith Law. The same four players are on it, though Law is comparatively lower on Tolle (he has him 40th compared to Pipeline’s 19, admitting that he wasn’t high on him to start last season) and comparatively higher on Arias, who he has at number 12 compared to Pipeline’s 31. (Keith Law The Athletic)

But is it risky to get too attached to any of those guys? According to a new report, the Red Sox remain interested in infielder Isaac Parades of the Astros, though no deal is particularly close. (Chandler Rome, The Athletic)

Though the fact that no deal is particularly close right now doesn’t mean that a deal can’t come together quickly, as evidenced by the Ranger Suárez signing. In this piece that dives into the pursuit of the pitcher, we learn that the Red Sox met with Suárez way back at the start of the offseason after deciding he was the best fit among this year’s class of free agent pitchers. But that was as far as things went until the Sox were forced to pivot quickly following the Alex Bregman departure. (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Speaking of the Alex Bregman departure, it’s a little unsettling that we still have no idea who is going to play third base for the 2026 Red Sox— or second base for that matter. But Marcelo Mayer is going to be prepared either way: “I’m doing everything I can, taking reps at third and at second base, and I feel really good at both. So wherever they need me is where I’m gonna play, and I’m gonna do my best out there.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

As for who will play whichever position Mayer doesn’t man, can I interest you is some Dylan Moore?

Moore is 33 years old and hit .201 for two MLB teams last year, so if your answer to that question is “no,” I don’t blame you.

Dylan Cease (how come I’ve been saying his name Cleese like he’s John Cleese son?) is a 30-year-old, right-handed pitcher whom the Jays signed to a 5-year, $210 million contract. It is more than possible that the last couple of years of that contract won’t go well.

Cease has pitched seven seasons in the MLB and has a 65-58 record, 3.88 ERA in 188 starts, and a 16.7 bWAR. His best season was 2022, when he had a 2.20 ERA, went 14-8 in 32 starts, and posted a 6.4 bWAR, finishing second in Cy Young voting (he finished fourth in 2024).

In our post about the signing, we had a poll. 42.9% of us were ‘Kind of Happy’, 41.8% were Very Happy. Only 5.1% were Kind of or Very Unhappy. I’m slightly curious how you could be very upset, but maybe they were Yankees fans.

But then we also had a poll asking, ‘Should the Jays sign Cease if the cost is $31 million a year for five years?’ and 64.2% said no. So we are nothing if not flexible.

Last year wasn’t his best; he had an 8-12 record and a 4.55 ERA in 32 starts. Everyone is allowed a down year.

He’s been incredibly durable. He’s made 32 or 33 starts in each of the last five seasons. The season before that was COVID-shortened. And he’s thrown between 165 and 189 innings in those five seasons.

Dylan throws five pitches, but his Four Seamer (averaging 97.1 MPH last year) and Slider show up 83% percent of the time. The rest: Knuckle Curve, Sinker, Sweeper, and Change-up. I’d think that, as he ages and perhaps loses a bit on the fastball, he’ll have to start throwing one or two of those secondary pitches more often.

I’d like to think he’ll be in the 2-4 range for WAR in most of his seasons with the Jays, but I’ll hold out hope that he can have another 5+ season. Dylan threw a lot of innings in his 20s, and often, guys like that don’t age well, but ‘often’ isn’t ‘always’.

Steamer thinks he’ll make 32 starts, throw 185 innings with a 3.61 ERA and a 12-10 record and a 3.8 fWAR. I think 185 innings is a lot; he’s only been over that once in his career, and the Jays aren’t the kind of team to push a starter.

The Summer Olympics are coming to Los Angeles in 2028, and baseball will be played at Dodger Stadium. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts wants to be involved, telling Dylan Hernández of the California Post that he wants to manage Team USA.

From Hernández:

“I went to school here,” the UCLA graduate said. “I manage the Dodgers.

“It’s a no-brainer.”

There’s a seemingly long time between now and the 2028 Olympics, but also a lot of logistical items to be resolved. But aside from that, there’s also the question of whether major league players would be allowed to play in the Olympics, which would require a disruption to the MLB schedule that season.

During the World Series last October, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred expressed optimism that a deal could be struck between the league’s owners and the player’s union for MLB players to be used in the Olympics, per Bill Shaikin at the Los Angeles Times:

“I am positive about it. … I think the owners have crossed the line in terms of, we’d like to do it if we can possibly make it work, but there are logistical issues that still need to be worked through.”

The schedule for the 2028 Olympics runs from July 14-30. When baseball will be played hasn’t been finalized, but Dodger Stadium will host the games, as it did in 1984 when the Summer Olympics were last in Los Angeles. Back then, baseball was only a demonstration sport in the Olympics. Baseball was an official medal sport from 1992 to 2008, and again in the 2020 Olympics, which were played in 2021.

Team USA did not qualify for the Olympics in 2024, and were led by college coaches in the 1992 and 1996 games. Since then, the team has been managed in Olympic play by former Dodgers.

In 2000, Tommy Lasorda managed Team USA to a gold medal in Sydney. Davey Johnson, who managed the Dodgers from ., helmed Team USA to a bronze medal in 2008 in Beijing., Longtime Dodgers catcher and Angels manager Mike Scioscia led the team to silver in 2021 in Tokyo, with a team that included former Dodgers Edwin Jackson and Tim Federowicz.

Warren Schaeffer is, by any standard, an energetic and positive person. He also tends to keep busy, though that has been especially true since becoming the Colorado Rockies permanent manager as he participated in hiring new staff, communicated with players and a new front office, and began planning spring training.

So, how was his offseason?

“It’s been a lot of work,” he says — but with enthusiasm, not exhaustion.

On the eve of Rockies Fest, Schaeffer answered a few questions about building a staff, communication, and changes coming to Scottsdale.

After being named the Rockies permanent manager, there was the matter of him finding his own staff.

“[It’s been] a lot of interviews,” Schaeffer said, “a whole lot of interviews to get it right — who we need to hire — because we had a lot of people to hire: new pitching coach, new assistant pitching coach, new bullpen coach, new first base coach, new hitting coach. I mean a lot.”

In addition, Schaeffer is currently focused on hiring the minor league coaching staff.

“It’s been a huge collaborative effort,” he said, “all of these hirings between the minor leagues and the major leagues, looking for that unity going up and down the chain.”

Something that can get lost in this Rockies rebuild is that team-building is happening throughout the organization. New front office and coaching stuff are meeting each other and learning to work together just as the players will next month. Prior to Rockies Fest, president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta convened a “summit” where all parts of the organization came together and began sorting out their roles and planning for the future.

“It’s been great getting to know Paul [DePodesta] and what he’s about,” Schaeffer said. “It’s been great getting to know Josh Byrnes and what he’s about and the new assistantGMs, and it’s an exciting time right now.”

It’s not just the manager; the players are enthusiastic about the changes, too.

“They’re all, almost pretty much to a man, extremely excited,” Schaeffer said.

“Players in general are always excited about the next season, and I would say specifically ours because they want to right the wrong that has been going on.”

”[R]ight the wrong that has been going on” would be those consecutive 100-loss seasons with the most recent being historically bad.

He added, “It just seems like the momentum that we’ve got going on, the players are extremely excited about that.”

Schaeffer’s calling card has always been his emphasis on communication, and that hasn’t changed heading into 2026. If anything, it’s even more important.

“I have strong relationships with the players already, and I continue to cultivate those with the new ones coming in and trying to create leaders in that area,” Schaeffer said. “And at the same time, we’re all in this together, in terms of Paul and Josh and Tommy Tanous and Ian Levin, all the new guys, and Walker [Monfort].”

Then he added, “But I love doing that because of the relationships you can build.”

Schaeffer’s plans to revamp spring training are also taking shape, and they start with “higher expectations.”

As Schaeffer puts it, “It’s one thing to talk about them, and it’s another thing to put them into action.”

The changes to spring training will be notable.

“Spring training will look completely different scheduling-wise, where we spend our time, what we spend our time on,” he said.

He was light on specifics since he’s not yet shared the details with the players, but he did says this: “It’ll look clearly different to the players, which is what matters, with a huge focus on winning.”

Too, there will be an emphasis on sustainability.

“We want to build a sustainable winner here for the city of Denver,” he said. “We believe that that could absolutely happen, and this is the first step.”

For Schaeffer, 2025 was a year of learning, and he has two primary lessons he’s bringing into 2026.

“Number one, preparation for the win that night,” Schaeffer said, “how to prepare better, and bringing in Jeff Pickler as a bench coach, who is exceptional at that part of the game, is going to be an enormous help for me and everybody else in terms of preparation.”

Then there’s the second lesson.

“The second thing that I learned, I think big time last year, is that at the big-league level, development never stops. It can never stop,” he said.

“Through the interview process this winter and being with these [new coaches] the past four or five days and getting to talk to them over the phone, the new coaches I’m talking about, it’s clear that they’re going to get that a relentless obsession with getting the player better, which is what they want. The point is, this isn’t the final product of the players we have. They’re going to get better. And that’s a learning experience from last year. We’re not finished getting better. There’s more in the tank.”

This week on the internet

Please enjoy this snippet from Rockies Family Feud, featuring Chase Dollander:

Freeman ready to be leader for young Rockies squad | MLB.com

Freeman tells Thomas Harding about his preparation for the 2026 season. Thomas Harding spoke with Paul DePodesta about the outfielder’s role: “We still see him as an outfielder. He’s a right-handed hitter, but he complements Jake [McCarthy] and Mickey [Moniak], but we also see him as the guy who can play in the infield. He’s played second, third and some short in the big leagues. He maybe even snuck in a game or two at first base at some point along the way.”

Red Sox tabbed to trade for Rockies Gold Glove shortstop with prospect haul | Newsweek

This article is a summary of a Red Sox podcast. Here are the trade details. Interested?

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Two top government officials in Kansas City, Mayor Quinton Lucas and Interim Jackson County Executive Phil LeVota, had a closed-door meeting with MO Governor Mike Kehoe to have stadium discussions.

Lucas and LeVota also emphasized a speedy end to the protracted fight over the team between Missouri and Kansas, which has dragged on for more than 18 months. Both officials said they hope to strike a stadium deal before the end of spring training, which will finish in late March.

“I hope it’s resolved before spring training is concluded, which is kind of opening day,” Lucas said on Wednesday. “I think that what we’re all going to do is work our level best to make sure we can get there.”

That feels incredibly optimistic to me, but we’ll see.

The Effectively Wild podcast brought on fan favorites Brent Rooker and Vinnie Pasquantino to talk baseball and food.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the MacKenzie Gore trade, the trajectories of the Rangers and Nationals since their respective World Series victories, and why the White Sox signed Seranthony Domínguez. Then (29:38) they bring on baseball buds Brent Rooker and Vinnie Pasquantino for a wide-ranging conversation about their scrapped podcasting plans, the Royals remodeling Kauffman Stadium, how Sutter Health Park played, the good and bad of bat-speed training, the challenge system, Brent’s sinking strikeout rate, the best breakfasts, the Pasqwich, A’s outfield defense, Nick Kurtz and Jac Caglianone, playing with Rich Hill, A’s extensions, playing 162 games, why they haven’t become 30-30 guys, arbitration, players’ pre-lockout messaging, an offseason signing deadline, Vinnie’s interactions with Shohei Ohtani, the WBC, the weather, and more.

Kevin O’Brien at Royals Keep analyzes Nick Loftin’s chances for proving himself in the upcoming season.

There’s a lot to like with Loftin’s profile above. He ranked in the 90th percentile in above in O-Swing%, Whiff%, Z-Contact%, K%, and BB%. He also ranked in the 95th percentile in wOBA and 97th percentile in xwOBA. The latter demonstrates that his performance was legitimate and not just a product of “batted ball luck”. Lastly, he launched the ball well with Omaha (79th percentile) and pulled the ball in the air effectively (89th percentile). Those kinds of batted-ball skills, combined with his plate discipline, are exactly what the Royals are looking for in hitters, especially under new assistant hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames. 

Unfortunately, things haven’t clicked in Kansas City for Loftin yet, as they did in Omaha last season. In 67 games and 188 plate appearances with the Royals last year, Loftin posted a .279 wOBA, 73 wRC+, and 0.1 fWAR. He also hit four home runs, scored 17 runs, and collected 20 RBI.

Baseball America has their breakout prospects for the Royals ($). These are prospects outside the top 10 that they think could vault up rankings in 2026.

Freddy Contreras, RHP
BA Grade/Risk: 50/Extreme
Adjusted Grade: 30

Track Record: While fellow pitcher Kendry Chourio’s sensational breakout headlined the Royals’ 2025 international signing class, Contreras may not be as far behind his Dominican Summer League teammate as some expected. Contreras, who didn’t turn 17 until the final week of the DSL season, signed for $147,500 and then pitched to a 3.30 ERA with 37 strikeouts to 13 walks in 30 innings, earning a DSL all-star nod.

Scouting Report: Contreras is a lean righthander with a four-seamer that was in the low 90s early in the season, but averaged 95 mph and touched 98 by the end of the year. He commands it well and it projects as a plus offering. His 79 mph curveball has above-average potential with good spin and movement, and Contreras also has feel for an 87 mph changeup. Both secondaries generated plenty of whiffs in the DSL. Contreras is highly competitive and confident on the mound.

The Future: Given his youth, a return to the DSL would make sense for Contreras. However, the Royals haven’t shied away from aggressive assignments for teenage arms, so he very well could open 2026 in the Arizona Complex League with a solid fastball-curveball combination that gives him a high floor for his age.

Mike Gillespie at Kings of Kauffman writes that Drew Waters is probably on his last chance.

Jacob Milham also at Kings of Kauffman writes about three players whose chase rate may make it tough for them to fit in the team’s no-chase hitting philosophy.

The Royals apparently have a new sports betting partner, if you’re into that sort of thing.

MLB The Show ‘26 will not have a new cover athlete. Will they just put a baseball hat? A picture of home plate? Pasquatch? I guess we’ll find out!

Apparently, the Dodgers have unusually favorable (to them) terms in their current revenue-sharing agreement.

Yasiel Puig is on trial for federal gambling charges ($).

Sam Darnold is going to be in a Super Bowl. Kind of a wild statement given his career arc.

Shedeur Sanders will participate in the Pro Bowl games because the NFL’s first through like 12th option was either injured or declined.

Some insight into how they make fake snow for the Winter Olympics.

Off Topic: My career is in data engineering, and thus AI is a whole big thing since the tools are getting pretty good at writing code. I know there are tons of stories of people using AI to generate slop code that they have to spend more time fixing later. But there are plenty of stories in my company of this…not happening at all. I’ve been using GenAI for code for quite some time and have found it useful. Anyone else code? What are your experiences?

Song of the Day is NOFX with Seeing Double at the Triple Rock.

National prospect list season continued on Monday as Keith Law, prospect writer for The Athletic, dropped his new top 100 list. At this point you won’t be surprised to find three highly ranked Detroit Tigers prospects in his top 30. Max Clark continues to grade almost unanimously as the best all around outfield prospect in baseball, while Kevin McGonigle remains behind the Pirates’ Konnor Griffin as the second ranked prospect in baseball with the best hit tool of any player in the minor leagues.

Law’s intro does have some interesting points, namely that the top 100 at this point is very hitter heavy. There just aren’t many obvious, dominant pitching prospects who have already proven their ability to handle the workload around the game. He mainly cites injury as the cause, noting that as a result of the ever higher rates of injury that teams are pushing their pitching prospects along more and more carefully, focused more on stuff and control rather than on stretching them out, trying to save their workload until they reach the major leagues. In any case, this is reflected in the fact that there are a lot of talented pitching prospects with 45/45+ grades, but they just aren’t as proven enough to really draw certain top 100 level grades, and the demands and more limited workloads make it harder to gauge who might actually emerge to put up 3+ WAR seasons in the bigs.

The Tigers’ Troy Melton is a pretty good example of this. He’s super talented, but the lack of a good third pitch led most to keep him in those 45 tiers entering 2025, including us. Based on his production and outlook, that still seems like an accurate grade. But he’s clearly improved and has the potential to be a 3-4 level starter or possibily more if he commands his splitter more effectively in the coming years. We just don’t know how long it may be until he gets a chance to prove he can do it in a full-time starting role and those usage concerns nowadays make it trickier to forecast future value for pitchers unless the player is already an established stud starter in the upper levels prior to the next season.

None of that pitching development strategy really seems to be working out, however. The Tigers are uber cautious with workload, both in terms of overall innings, length of outings, and frequency of outings, rarely giving a starting pitching prospect two starts in a week’s time, and so far it isn’t doing them a bit of good.

Law has RHP Bubba Chandler of the Pirates as the top pitching prospect in baseball in the 14th spot, with the Mets RHP Nolan McLean behind him at 15. RHP Ryan Sloan of the Mariners is ranked 21st, with RHP Andrew Painter of the Phillies at 22. All together Law has just 12 pitchers in the top 50.

You can find the top 100 list with commentary here at The Athletic.

#2 Kevin McGonigle

Law says: He’s an elite hitter for hard contact, pairing that with outstanding swing decisions, so the result is that he hits the ball in the air and pulls it a ton, getting to surprising power for a guy with more of a medium build and frame.

#5 Max Clark

Law says: Clark has excellent bat speed and a very advanced eye at the plate, which combined to produce just an 18 percent whiff rate on the season, along with an 18 percent chase rate that dropped to 10 percent on pitches well out of the zone.

His MLB ceiling is as a plus defender with high OBPs and 18-22 homers a year, which is going to at least make him an All-Star and a big fan favorite.

#17 Bryce Rainer

Law says: When he played, he showed a bit of everything, with power (peaking at 111.6 mph EV, with a hard-hit rate over 52 percent), patience, plus defense and, at least before the injury, a plus-plus arm. He had no trouble with better velocity, hitting .333/.440/.476 last year off 94-plus mph in a sample of 80 pitches. 

#59 Josue Briceño

Law says: (at the Double-A level) He did still maintain his feel for the strike zone and continued to make plenty of contact in the zone (85 percent), so there’s reason to believe he’ll resume mashing with more reps at the level. It’s plus power already, even to the opposite field, as he understands how to hit the ball where it’s pitched…

#91 Max Anderson

Law says:  He focused over the offseason on trying to change how he was making contact from getting on top of the ball to hitting it on the bottom half, and took off from the start of last season, with a .306/.358/.499 line in Double A in 90 games, then a .267/.327/.422 line in Triple A where he still had a 46 percent hard-hit rate. His production is almost entirely in his hit tool; he has average power, below-average patience and below-average speed, so he has to continue to post high contact rates given his lack of a current defensive position.

Summary

Overall the only thing in terms of the Tigers that hasn’t already been covered extensively is Max Anderson making the list. Law cites the defensive concerns we’ve brought up repeatedly the past two seasons, but is more optimistic that he’ll hit enough to make it as an everyday player. I continue to think his pitch selection and overall discipline is going to have to improve quite a bit, as major league pitchers aren’t going to have that much trouble getting the current version of Anderson swinging at pitchers’ pitches and getting him out on the ground.

Anderson does have good hands and makes plenty of contact. There’s just a lot of pressure on the bat to hit for power due to his lack of defensive utility, mostly because of his mediocre range. His fairly strong and accurate arm helps make up for it and will allow him to play back against hitters without the footspeed to beat out choppers and slower rollers hit his way. It’s nice to see some optimism for Anderson, and hopefully Law ends up being in the right on this one.

Good morning, baseball fans!

Yesterday, the San Francisco Giants announced that they have signed outfielder Harrison Bader to a two-year deal. So I wanted to check in and see how people are feeling about the signing.

Personally, I agree with Brady’s assessment in the linked post above. Bader is an improvement on outfield defense, which is great! And if he hits as well as he did in 2025, that would also be a plus! Though I’m not sure if that’s sustainable, as he has tended to be a little under league average.

Bryan pointed out something interesting as well, in that he tends to hit pretty well in NL West parks (except for Dodger Stadium, naturally).

But the defensive improvement is the point! And I’m excited about it.

How are you feeling about the Harrison Bader signing?

When he was in the minor leagues, there were good indications that Joey Ortiz would be, at minimum, a decent offensive player. From his professional debut through his last substantive minor league season in 2023, Ortiz never had a wRC+ lower than 98, and even that low mark came in 2019 when he was 20 and had just finished his last college season. Ortiz’s offense in the minors ranged from slightly above average to excellent, particularly in his 2023 season, when (as a top 100 prospect) he hit .321/.378/.507 (a 124 wRC+) at Triple-A Norfolk and earned himself a late-season promotion to the Orioles.

During his (official) rookie season with the Brewers in 2024, Ortiz largely performed the way his minor league numbers suggested he might. In 142 games, he didn’t hit for much average but showed good patience and did a decent job driving the ball. His season was up and down — he started hot, cooled off, looked terrible in the weeks following an IL stint, and then recovered a bit over the last month-and-a-half. But Ortiz’s final line of .239/.329/.398 equated to a 102 OPS+ and 105 wRC+, more than acceptable for a glove-first rookie. He earned 2.7 bWAR and 3.2 fWAR, and looked like he was on the way to a long, productive career as a Brewer.

Then, in 2025, Ortiz’s offense abandoned him completely. After a hot spring training, Ortiz started dreadfully and never really pulled himself out of it. After going 2-for-4 on the first day of the season, Ortiz didn’t have an OPS over .600 again until August 12. He finished the season at .230/.276/.317 for a dreadful 66 OPS+/67 wRC+ in 506 plate appearances.

It is rare for players to be given that kind of playing time when they are that bad at the plate. Since 2000, there have been only 58 instances of a player receiving at least 500 plate appearances with an OPS+ of 66 or lower.* As a rookie, Ortiz showed some strengths: a good walk percentage, good bat speed, a good chase percentage. But in 2025, almost everything nose-dived, his chase percentage went way up, and he didn’t do any damage on pitches he made contact with.

*A quick “fun” fact: there are three other Brewer seasons on this list: Orlando Arcia in 2019 (546 PA, 64 OPS+), Alcides Escobar in 2010 (552 PA, 66 OPS+), and Marquis Grissom in 2000 (640 PA, 63 OPS+). Brice Turang just misses this list: he had a 61 OPS+ in 2023, but in only 448 PA. I should also draw attention to another BCB favorite on the list, who did this before arriving in Milwaukee: Yuniesky Betancourt had a 66 OPS+ in 508 PA in 2009, split between Kansas City and Seattle.

According to Statcast, the only thing Ortiz did well in 2025 was that he didn’t miss much when he swung at the ball — he had a 90^th percentile whiff percentage and 86^th percentile strikeout rate. But if you’re never doing damage when contacting the ball, it doesn’t matter a whole lot if you’re putting the ball in play; we all remember the 19,000 (or thereabouts) infield pop-ups we saw from Ortiz last season.

Looking to history

What I was most curious about here was not necessarily a diagnosis of Ortiz’s issues but sort of hopes for recovery he has.

So, I started in 1969, when the league expanded to 24 teams, and searched for players who, within the first three years of their career, had a season of at least 500 plate appearances with an OPS+ of 70 or less. Then I combed through the players on that list (56 players, a handful of whom appeared twice) to see if any finished with a career OPS+ of 95 or better. Here’s who I found:

• Jean Segura (26.3 career WAR, 97 OPS+)
• Dansby Swanson (28.4 WAR, 97 OPS+, still active)
• Geraldo Perdomo (13.5 WAR, 101 OPS+, still active)

That’s it. And that’s the bad news: there are very few players in modern baseball history who’ve been as bad as Ortiz was in 2025 who have gone on to good offensive careers. Let’s quickly cover these three players — and it’s nice that we have couple of active guys, because we can check out the same Statcast data for them that we have for Ortiz.

First, Segura. After he debuted for one game with the Angels in 2012, he was included in Los Angeles’ trade deadline package that they sent to Milwaukee for Zack Greinke. The Brewers put Segura right into their starting lineup, and he was good enough to earn himself the starting shortstop job in 2013. At 23 years old that season, Segura was great: he hit .294/.329/.423, stole 44 bases, and made the All-Star team.

But in 2014, Segura’s offense disappeared completely, and it didn’t come back in 2015, either. After back-to-back seasons of a 70 and 68 OPS+ in 146 and 142 games, the Brewers traded Segura to Arizona… where he promptly hit .319/.368/.499, led the league in hits, and had a 6.6 WAR season.

The second half of Segura’s career was less up and down, but he was never a super consistent player. After looking good in his early 30s in Philadelphia, he was so bad in 85 games with the Marlins in 2023 that he never played in the majors again, despite being just 33 years old in his final season in 2023.

Swanson was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft and was in the majors the following season; he looked great in 38 games in 2016, so the Braves made him their starting shortstop in 2017 when he was less than two years removed from college ball. It went badly. In 144 games and 551 plate appearances, Swanson hit .232/.312/.324 (68 OPS+).

While Swanson struggled in 2017, his available Statcast numbers aren’t nearly as badly as Ortiz’s in 2025; most of his numbers fell in the 20-35 range, percentile-wise, while many of Ortiz’s are below the 10th percentile. Swanson’s career also followed a more traditional arc: he was good in 2016, but it was only a 38-game sample, so 2017 was his rookie year. His OPS+ numbers are then basically a straight line, if you throw out the shortened 2020 season: 87 in 2018, 89 in 2019, 99 in 2021, 114 in 2022. Over the last six years, Swanson has a 105 OPS+ in 837 games, which he pairs with excellent defense at shortstop, and has made himself a valuable player.

Perdomo was thrust into the starting job for the Diamondbacks before he was really ready; he played 11 games in a brief debut in 2021 then played 148 games as a 22-year-old regular in 2022, in which he hit just .195/.285/.262. Perdomo’s 2022 season actually looks somewhat similar to Ortiz’s 2025; Both players didn’t swing and miss much, and both had above-average strikeout percentages, but both did nothing when they made contact: both players ranked in the 13th percentile or worse in all of xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, and launch angle sweet-spot percentage.

The thing that’s different is that Perdomo didn’t chase anything, and his ability to draw walks has always been a strength. He improved to a 95 OPS+ in 2023 (and made the All-Star team), then to a 100 OPS+ in 2024, and then he broke out in 2025 and became one of the best players in the league (.290/.389/.462, 136 OPS+, 20 homers, 33 doubles, 27 stolen bases, 94 walks, NL leading 7.0 WAR).

Judging the career arc is tricky. Swanson and Perdomo both followed paths where they struggled early and then rose in a straight line, and the cynic would say that’s an indication that Ortiz hasn’t been able to make the necessary adjustments as the league’s pitchers figured him out. But Segura’s early career shows the sometimes-random nature of player development, so it could go either way.

I’d also just like to briefly discuss Turang, who technically doesn’t fit the criteria, as his bad season was in fewer than 500 PA and his career OPS+ is currently 93. Turang’s early career resembles Perdomo and Swanson more than Ortiz, in that he was awful in his first real shot and has since shown steady improvement. But Turang in 2023 was even worse than Ortiz in 2025, so that should give some encouragement that someone in Milwaukee might know how to help.

Other Pathways

There are several other players who fit the “bad early season” criteria who did go on to have good, or at least notable, careers:

• Ozzie Smith (76.9 WAR) is by far the best player of all those who fit the “bad early-career offensive season” criteria. He is, of course, the greatest defensive player in the history of baseball; his 44.2 dWAR are the most all time by a comfortable margin. While Smith was never a good offensive player, he did figure things out as he went along: after posting an OPS+ of 74 over his first seven seasons, Smith had an OPS+ of 99 over the next eight years (1985-1992). Combine that with his all-time good defense and it makes him an obvious Hall of Fame choice.
• It’d be a little crazy, but I could, for fun, make an argument that Jim Sundberg (40.5 WAR, 90 OPS+) is the best defensive catcher of all time. He’s got the best dWAR rate of any catcher with substantial playing time in league history, just ahead of Yadier Molina and comfortably ahead of the next three, Iván Rodríguez, Bob Boone, and Gary Carter. Sundberg was a really good player who won six Gold Gloves (consecutively from 1976-81) and made three All-Star Games, one of which was in his lone season in Milwaukee in 1984.
• Terry Pendleton (28.4 WAR, 92 OPS+) was a solid player who peaked in the early ‘90s when he won an MVP in 1991 and finished second in the voting in 1992. Pendleton probably doesn’t win those awards nowadays, but it’s still impressive. He finished with three Gold Gloves and one All-Star appearance.
• Bob Boone (27.4 WAR, 79 OPS+), as noted, was a great defensive catcher, but aside from a four-year stretch in the late ‘70s when he was slightly above average, he was always a bad offensive player. Boone played 19 years and finished with seven Gold Gloves and four All-Star appearances.
• Jack Wilson (23.5 WAR, 76 OPS+) is well known to fans of the NL Central; the first nine-and-a-half years of his 12-year career came in Pittsburgh. Wilson had a couple seasons in which he hit for solid average, but he was a low-OBP, low-power hitter. In 2004, he was an All-Star and won the Silver Slugger when he hit .308/.335/.459 with a league-leading 12 triples. His son, Jacob, was second in 2025 AL Rookie of the Year voting.
• Michael Bourn (22.8 WAR, 87 OPS+) was a defensive standout in center field who won two Gold Gloves, made a couple of All-Star teams (one with Houston, one with Atlanta), and led the league in stolen bases every year from 2009-2011.
• Larry Bowa (22.8 WAR, 71 OPS+) collected over 2,100 hits in his 16-year career, but they were about as empty as they come; he was a lifetime .260/.300/.320 hitter. But Bowa was considered a star: he finished as high as third in MVP voting, won two Gold Gloves, and made five All-Star Games.
• Juan Uribe (22.6 WAR, 87 OPS+) played for 16 years as a good defensive infielder who occasionally hit a bit, especially later in his career. He started on World Series winners in Chicago (2005) and San Francisco (2010), and while he didn’t make any All-Star Games or win any awards, he had a solid career.
• Ozzie Guillén (21 WAR, 69 OPS+) was a no-bat, all-glove shortstop who is now known more for his career as a manager than as a player. He made three All-Star Games, all between 1988 and 1991, and won AL Rookie of the Year in 1985 and a Gold Glove in 1990.
• Juan Pierre (17.3 career WAR, 84 career OPS+) played 14 years, led the league in hits twice, triples once, and stolen bases three times, but he was a player with zero power (18 career homers) in an era when a guy hit 73 homers in a season.
• Vince Coleman (12.5 WAR, 83 OPS+) came into the league and looked destined to challenge the slightly older Rickey Henderson as history’s greatest base stealer: in his first three seasons, Coleman stole 110, 107, and 109 stolen bases, a run which even Henderson cannot boast. But unlike Henderson, Coleman couldn’t hit, and he couldn’t get on base enough to sustain a meaningful run at Henderson. His 13-year career included two All-Star appearances, the 1985 NL Rookie of the Year, and 752 stolen bases, sixth all time.

Conclusion

It’s going to be a big year for Ortiz. If he can get his bat back near the levels of 2024, his combination of “good enough” offense and excellent defense at shortstop would make him a valuable contributor. If he can’t, though, the Brewers have a bevy of options nearing the top of the minor leagues that could theoretically replace him, sooner than you might think.

Cooper Pratt and Jett Williams are likely to start the season at Triple-A Nashville, and Jesús Made is going to be right behind them at Double-A Biloxi. It’s a little early for Made, who doesn’t turn 19 until May. But if Ortiz’s struggles show no signs of correction and Pratt or Williams open the season swinging the bat, either could replace Ortiz this summer. Williams may not be the long-term answer at shortstop — by all accounts his defense there might be a little questionable (at least compared to Pratt and Made), and most think he ends up in center field.

That doesn’t mean he couldn’t be a short-term replacement, though, manning the position until Pratt or Made are ready. The point is, Ortiz shouldn’t feel exactly threatened, but I feel confident that the Brewers are not about to let their everyday shortstop hold an OPS below .600 for a full season again.

There are bound to be some events of note at some point. Perhaps not today. But we remain vigilant. Pitchers and catchers are due to report in two weeks.

We do have a nice The Compound Podcast if you have time, and several shorter stories, both on video and via text. Randy Holt has a good piece about building the bench, below. Pat Hughes is going to have a fundraiser chat in mid-February.

Seiya Suzuki is going to play for Japan in the WBC. The Sloan Park complex has completed its expansion.

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• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com*): Cubs’ injured ace is ‘movin and a groovin’ his way back to action. “It’s a heck of a boost,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said, “to have a guy that’s a top of the rotation-type talent that potentially could come in here and be that for us later in the year.”
• Sahadev Sharma (The Athletic* {$}): How do the Cubs expect Alex Bregman to fare at windy Wrigley Field? “I don’t really understand the focus on the ballpark,” Hoyer said.
• Randy Holt (North Side Baseball*): Have the Cubs learned their lesson about building a bench? “None of Workman, Bruján, Berti, or Lopez made it through the summer.“
• Jack Lindsay (North Side Baseball*): The Cubs’ fourth outfielder battle is wide open. “There’s a crucial roster spot up for grabs this spring. Four Cubs are now in position to fight for it.“
• Keio*: Kotaro Tsunematsu signs Minor League deal with the Chicago Cubs, holds Press Conference at Hiyoshi Campus. “I want to take on the greatest challenge while I am at my physical peak in my 20s,” Tsunematsu said.

Food For Thought:

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series. We will not wittingly publish A. I. – driven articles or clickbait, and insist on unimpeachable sources.

There has arguably been no bigger weak spot for the New York Yankees over the past few years than the hot corner. Since the departure of Gio Urshela following the 2021 season, the Bombers have tried to fill the hole with veteran placeholders by first trading for Josh Donaldson and eventually giving the role to DJ LeMahieu, who steadily declined to the point where he was released from the roster entirely last July.

Finally cutting bait with LeMahieu made it clear that third base needed to be addressed at the trade deadline, and the Yankees did just that by acquiring Ryan McMahon from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for pitching prospects Griffin Herring and Josh Grosz. McMahon is a defensive specialist and below-average hitter who strikes out a lot, and that’s exactly what he gave the Yankees in 54 games. He projects to start at third base for the team in 2026.

Another trade deadline acquisition, Amed Rosario, re-signed this offseason and will likely bounce between second base, third base, and the outfield during his platoon appearances. The Yankees’ starting lineup is overwhelmingly left-handed, so Rosario should slot in somewhere anytime they face a southpaw starting pitcher. When given the choice of starting McMahon or Jazz Chisholm Jr. against a lefty, they will likely opt for the latter, meaning Rosario could make most of his appearances in 2026 at third.

McMahon and Rosario’s acquisitions were part of a trade deadline makeover that reshaped the Yankees’ roster in 2025. That makeover cost them a significant chunk of minor-league talent, and third base was one of the positions that was hit hard. Here’s how the rest of the organization lines up at the hot corner:

The minor-league depth at the position is weaker than usual with many of the team’s top young options at third base being dealt away. Jesus Rodriguez emerged as a promising option in Triple-A and Parks Harber tore up Low-A and High-A last year, but they were both traded to the Giants (alongside Trystan Vrieling) in the Camilo Doval deal. Dylan Jasso served as the primary third baseman for Double-A Somerset for most of the year, but he was traded to Miami in the Ryan Weathers trade just a couple weeks ago.

These trades leave a lot of lineup questions at third base throughout the organization. Jorbit Vivas (who was discussed during our second base preview) played 33 games at third in Triple-A last season, but Jeimer Candelario is no longer with the team so Vivas could be the RailRiders’ primary third baseman. The recently-acquired veteran trio of Braden Shewmake, Paul DeJong, and Zack Short (who were discussed during our shortstop preview) could also produce a replacement for Candelario which would allow Vivas to remain at second base.

The departure of Jasso leaves third base wide open at Somerset. Tyler Hardman served as the primary first baseman last season and only played three games at third, but he’s played the hot corner in the past and could be an option for a position change if the team decides to promote Coby Morales to replace him at first. Josh Moylan led High-A Hudson Valley in appearances at third and has spent the past two years at the level, so he could also be in line for a promotion to Somerset. Moylan has been a slightly above-average offensive producer in each of 2024 and 2025, with walk rates between 13-15% and strikeout rates between 25-30%. Juan Matheus was another contributor at third in Low-A and High-A last year, but he was also part of the package that went to Miami in exchange for Weathers.

Other options for starts at third base this year at these levels could include Owen Cobb, Enmanuel Tejeda, Kaeden Kent, and Roderick Arias, all of whom were included in our season previews for shortstop and second base. With so few primary third basemen in the organization, players like these may find an opportunity for more playing time if they’re able to slot into an open role and adjust nicely at the hot corner.

In fact, FanGraphs’ Roster Resource tool only has three minor leaguers in the system listed as primary third baseman, none of them higher in the organization than Low-A. The first of these players is Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek, the team’s 20th-round pick from last year’s MLB Draft out of USC. Martin-Grudzielanek didn’t hit very well in his last two seasons in college, and was underwhelming in his first 24 games with Low-A Tampa.

It’s a bit ironic that the most promising third base prospect still in the Yankees’ system may very well be the lowest one on the totem pole. Richard Matic spent his age-17 season repeating the Dominican Summer League in 2025, but the results were night and day compared to his first year. After hitting .196 with a 71 wRC+ at age 16 against DSL pitching, Matic excelled in 46 games last season with a .336/.487/.566 slash line, five home runs, a 20.9/22.5 BB/K% ratio and a 167 wRC+. He’s a right-handed power bat with a 6-foot, 200-pound frame who could emerge as one of the most promising sluggers in the system if he can adapt to the Complex league and stateside competition. The list of DSL bats who fall off a cliff against stiffer competition is long every year, but this is what the ones who do make it look like. The last third baseman listed by Roster Resource is Leni Done, who signed as an international free agent last season and also hit five home runs in the DSL.

Third base is the most chaotic infield position in the organization entering 2026 due to all the roster turnover, though there are a few players who could take advantage of new opportunities due to this uncertainty. It’s unlikely that any of these players contribute at the big-league level anytime soon, but it’s worth following along to see who gets the first crack at filling in for some of these players who were traded away.