Category: MLB

The Mets capped off their most active week of the offseason in a big way, acquiring Freddy Peralta and Tobias Meyers for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. It’s likely the last large addition the Mets will make this offseason, but boy it sure is a great way to round things out.

Peralta is obviously the centerpiece. Since moving to the rotation full time in 2021, he’s tossed 738.1 innings of 3.30 ERA ball. In that timeframe, he’s one of only 25 qualified starters to post a 20% or better K-BB%. At this juncture, he’s probably something like a top-15 or top-20 arm in the majors – not quite good enough to meet the definition of “sure fire ace”, but undoubtedly a solid number two starter who will complement Nolan McLean at the top of the rotation.

We should note that despite being generally healthy (outside of a shoulder strain in 2022), Peralta is not a exactly a work horse. The Brewers were extremely judicious with how they deployed him, frequently pulling Peralta early and leaning on their bullpen to get the rest of the way. That was much the same in 2025, when he averaged a hair over 5.1 innings per start and didn’t face a single batter four times in a single game all season. Not a typo, the most batters Peralta faced in a game last season was 27, and he only topped 23 batters 7 times. There’s nothing wrong with this per se, particularly in the modern game, but it is a limitation that the Mets’ field staff will have to manage. (Raise your hand if you have faith in Carlos Mendoza here.)

The Mets are also getting the chance to extend Peralta here, and he’s already indicated a willingness to sign a long-term deal. We can look to Tyler Glasnow as a reasonable comp; a pitcher traded one year prior to free agency in his age-30 season. Glasnow ultimately received an additional three-years and $110M, with a club / player option for a fifth season. He was due a higher base salary ($25M), but Peralta has the better track record, so maybe that comes out in the wash. Something in the low 9-figure range that takes Peralta through his age-34 season would seem to make sense, and that’s a good deal for the Mets in all likelihood. And, if this doesn’t work out, the Mets can QO him and get a pick back for their troubles.

Three paragraphs later, we get to Myers, who is far more than a throw in despite the narrative delay. Now four years and three teams removed from being traded for Junior Caminero (a real oopsie by Cleveland), Myers has settled in as a valuable swing-man with five seasons of team control remaining. No, the stuff doesn’t totally leap off the page, and his strikeout rate dipped in 2025, possibly because he had a lingering oblique injury. He also doesn’t have the same upside of Sproat in all likelihood (more on that in a moment). What he does do is fill a very similar role for the Mets’ roster with a similar amount of team control and some untapped potential. It’s a great get as the second piece.

Now, for the cost. Williams and Sproat were set to rank 4th and 5th respectively on our upcoming top-10 list. I was a bit lower on both than our final consensus:

#4: Jett Williams

I don’t disagree that much with Jett’s ranking here (I had Ewing above him, but no one else), but I still find myself pretty down on him as a prospect, and I don’t think it’s just prospect fatigue. I began voicing concerns about Jett’s hit tool ~2 years ago, and in that time he’s not really assuaged any of those worries. Sure, injuries have played a role and the strikeout rate has held steady in the low-20s, but that’s not because Williams is great at putting bat on ball, it’s because he just doesn’t swing. He ranked in the 6th percentile for hittable pitches taken, nuking his SEAGER down to 3.9 despite the aforementioned healthy walk and strikeout rates. Couple that with what is still just okay damage on contact and a tweener-ish defensive profile and this is trending more towards “high quality bench bat” or “second division starter” rather than the sort of player we were extolling as the future of the team in 2023.

#5: Brandon Sproat

Brandon Sproat does a lot of things well. He throws pretty hard, he finally landed on a breaking ball shape that works, and the change is still a decent pitch. Put in terms of physical skills, you can say that he has good arm speed and feel for spin. However, this has never really all come together for him, in large part because his fastball shape just isn’t viable at present. Even with the addition of a sinker last season – one that grades out better but still not great – I’m still not convinced he’s the type of arm who can make it through a lineup two or three times. If you couple that with the lack of development runway relative to other arms (Sproat is older and was selected as a senior out of a major college program, which would normally mean there’s less juice to squeeze) in the back of the top-10 and I think I’d actually prefer Sproat a good deal lower, even though he’s a totally justifiable top-100 prospect.

Both are definitely top-100 prospects, but neither are in the tier of guys that it particularly hurts to move. Especially when you’re the Mets and are inducing jumps on both sides of the ball these days – it’s a lot easier to move Brandon Sproat when you have Jonah Tong and Jack Wenninger, and it’s a lot easier to move Jett Williams when you have A.J. Ewing and Jacob Reimer.

This price is also roughly in line with another trade made by the Brewers, that being the Corbin Burnes deal. Burnes was a better arm making nearly double what Peralta will make in 2025, and he wasn’t likely to sign an extension either. Nevertheless, the Brewers gave up two prospects in the back half of the top-100 (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall, a package I would argue is of lower quality than what the Mets gave up but not by a huge margin) for one year of Burnes’ in 2024.

Had the Mets only received Peralta, this would’ve been a totally fine deal, a market-value acquisition for a #2 starter rental. With the addition of Myers and Peralta’s seeming willingness to extend, it looks even better. This deal receives an A.

23. RJ Petit (115 points, 12 ballots)

RJ Petit is a tough guy to miss. Colorado’s pick in the 2025 Rule 5 draft from the Detroit Tigers organization is a 6’8”, 300-pound titan of a right-handed relief pitcher. Originally drafted by the Tigers in the 14th round of the 2021 draft out of Charleston Southern, the 26-year-old has mostly served as a reliever after dabbling with starting during his draft year. As one might surmise given his size, Petit can throw in the mid to high-90s with a downward plane. He pairs that velo with a hard, sweeping slider that tunnels well with the fastball and a developing change-up.

Petit entered 2025 back at Double-A Erie for the third season in a row (where he was of league-average age) despite posting decent results there in 2024 and being unprotected and unselected in that year’s Rule 5 draft. In 27 games with Erie, Petit posted a 2.28 ERA with a dominant 0.95 WHIP and a 9.6 K/9 rate against a 2.5 BB/9 rate in 43 1/3 innings.

Petit finally got the call up to Triple-A Toledo (which is in the much more pitcher-friendly International League) in mid-July. Petit appeared in 20 games at the level with a 2.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, an outstanding 12.9 K/9 rate, and a 3.9 BB/9 rate in 23 innings, including a save. Petit was strong against both righties (.629 OPS against) and lefties (.579 OPS) while allowing just four homers in 66 1/3 innings during 2025. Despite the success at the Triple-A level, Petit was again left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and this time the Rockies took him with the first pick.

Here’s some video of Petit from his time in the 2023 Arizona Fall League:

Here was Eric Longenhagen’s scouting report on Petit after the Rule 5 draft:

Petit is a pretty standard mid-90s fastball (94-97 mph, touch 98) and a plus slider reliever. He utilizes his slider in all counts because his size creates hittable plane on his fastball, but the addition of a second fastball type (he throws both elevated four-seamers and in-zone two-seamers) helped limit opponents’ contact quality against his heaters in 2025, as both had a sub-.300 xwOBA against. Petit also creates enough sink on his changeup to keep lefties in check, so his role isn’t at risk of being minimized to that of a righty specialist if he throws enough strikes (no guarantees) to make the Rockies bullpen next spring.

Longenhagen ranked Petit as a 40 FV player last March, 25th in Detroit’s system.

Petit ranks 26th on MLB.com’s Rockies prospect list as a 40 FV pitcher with a 60 grade on the slider:

Standing at 6-foot-8, Petit is a tremendous presence on the mound. He doesn’t get big extension out of that frame, instead using his height to create a steep downward plane leading to solid groundball rates. There is some velocity here, touching 98 mph while sitting 94-96, and he’s worked to generate a bit more heat. Petit’s 83-85 mph gyro slider is much better at generating swing-and-miss and chase low in the zone with strong depth, and the Rockies think it’s the kind of breaking ball that should play in Coors Field. He can tunnel his 86-89 mph changeup well enough off the fastball with just enough velocity separation for it to be effective.

Petit has shown the ability to get righties and lefties out at the upper levels, and he was able to get his walk rate back down in 2025 to 3.0 per nine after seeing it creep up in 2024 (4.1 BB/9). He’ll get his chance to stick with the Rockies, who see him as a potential bulk reliever.

Petit is almost certain to be a one and done PuRP, as he will either stick on Colorado’s roster long enough in 2026 to exhaust his rookie eligibility or he won’t and will be returned to the Tigers. He represents a good multi-inning mop-up relief a la Anthony Molina in his Rule 5 year in 2024, with the size and breaking ball to be better than that. I ranked him 23rd on my ballot at the bottom of my 40 FV tier due to the floor.

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The birthday series we’re running here at Pinstripe Alley is interesting for multiple reasons, primarily because we’re introduced to players who may not have as much exposure as the stars of today’s game or had their time in the majors but end up in the weeds of Major League Baseball history. With the Yankees being an old franchise relative to most of MLB, the latter is bound to happen to plenty of different players from the olden days of our great game. Fred Heimach is one of the names that might be lost to time, but he still made his impact in his short stint with the Bombers.

Frederick Amos Heimach
Born: January 27, 1901 (Camden, NJ)
Died: June 1, 1973 (Fort Myers, FL)
Yankees Tenure: 1928-29

Fred “Lefty” Heimach was born on this day in 1901 and worked his way up to the major-league ranks as a pitcher despite never playing high school baseball as a teenager. When the United States entered World War I, Heimach enlisted and trained to become a mechanic before being sent overseas to France, where he helped organize a baseball team for his unit in Romorantin in the spring of 1918. Tom Turner, who was then working as a quasi-scout for the Philadelphia Athletics and was the athletic officer for a team that was defeated by Heimach’s, said to him, according to Bill Nowlin from the Society of American Baseball Research, “When this war is over, and you still have two legs and two arms, see me without fail. You have a job with the Athletics waiting for you.”

And he did. Heimach returned to the United States, fresh off the war, at 19-years-old, and was signed by the Athletics. He was sent for some conditioning and made his MLB debut in a 13-3 loss to the Washington Senators on October 1, 1920.

However, despite the poor start and a 14.40 ERA to his name at the MLB level, he came back strong in his second season. At the Three-I League (Class B) level, he helped his squad, the Moline Plowboys, to a championship. He finished the year with a 24-8 record and led the league in wins and ERA with a 2.38 before making his second MLB start against the Chicago White Sox, where he pitched a complete game shutout, allowing only seven hits.

Heimach pitched 117 games more for the Athletics and started 64 of them before being moved to the Boston Red Sox in 1926. He finished with a 4.67 ERA in those games and a 5.65 ERA in 20 games with Boston. His next move, following an entire season in the minor leagues in 1927, was a pickup by the Yankees, who thought he could be a special player for them. He was acquired for $20,000 and a player to be named later, and in 13 games and nine starts, “Lefty” posted a 3.31 ERA in 68.0 innings pitched. He saw no action in the 1928 World Series against St. Louis but still walked away with a championship to his name.

Heimach was brought back for his 29-year-old season with the Yankees as well and had another decent season on the mound, finishing with a respectable 4.01 ERA and an 11-6 record. However, despite his two decent seasons in pinstripes, his contract was sold to the Toledo Mud Hens, and manager Bob Shawkey somewhat ominously told the New York World Telegram, “There are some things that this club will not elaborate.”

Heimach’s last MLB appearance came on August 30, 1933, for the Brooklyn Dodgers, before his retirement was forced by a back injury. He pitched four seasons for the Dodgers from 1930 to 1933, finishing with a 4.31 career ERA with the team. His final career ERA came out to 4.46, and he finished with a career record of 62-69.

After his MLB career ended, Heimach headed south and joined the Miami Beach Police Department, where he spent 20 years as an officer before retiring in 1956 and moving to Arizona before returning to Florida. Heimach passed away in Fort Myers, on June 1, 1973, at the age of 72, and is buried at the Fort Myers Memorial Gardens.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

In Mariners news…

• The Mariners are reportedly closing in on a deal with the top teenage prospect in the 2027 international draft class, Dominican switch-hitter Mairon De La Rosa.
• Don’t forget to vote for our very own Ryan Blake in this year’s SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards for his article on the T-Mobile Park batter’s eye.

Around the league…

• The San Francisco Giants have signed free agent outfielder Harrison Bader to a two-year/$20.5 million contract.
• Veteran reliever Hector Neris has agreed to a minor league deal with the Kansas City Royals.
• New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza was impressed with his initial look at new third baseman Bo Bichette. Although having played shortstop his entire career, Bichette looks comfortable in his new position for the Mets.
• The Minnesota Twins have agreed to a one-year/$6.1 million contract with RHP Joe Ryan to avoid arbitration. The deal additionally includes a $13 million mutual option for 2027.
• Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson is eager to prove himself in a healthier 2026 season.

The other day, MLB Pipeline dropped their new top 100 rankings and it featured four Nationals in the top 80. Out of all the public rankings I have seen, Pipeline is the highest on the Nats prospects. They have Eli Willits at 13th, Travis Sykora at 54th, Harry Ford at 71st and Jarlin Susana at 80th.

This is very exciting for Nats fans, who are very attached to prospects these days after all the losing that has come this decade. If these guys pan out, they can lead the next generation of winning Nats baseball. After all of the losing, Nats fans deserve it.

Let’s dive into the rankings and what they have to say about each player. Former first overall pick Eli Willits is the top ranked Nats prospect. Pipeline is higher on him than most other outlets, ranking him at 13th. Willits is the highest ranked player drafted in 2025, despite being 5th on their draft rankings. A strong pro debut combined with questions about Ethan Holliday’s hit tool allowed him to move past the more famous prospect.

Eli Willits joins some elite company 👏 pic.twitter.com/DAT5nqkLdu

— MLB (@MLB) July 21, 2025

Willits has three 60 grade tools according to Pipeline. His hitting, running and fielding all have 60 grades, meaning they are plus tools. Players with a 60 hit tool and 60 defense at shortstop do not come around very often, and that is why Willits was taken first overall. He showed both of those skills in his pro debut, where he hit .300 and flashed the leather at shortstop.

The biggest question mark about Willits is his power. Pipeline gave his power tool a 45 grade, which is slightly below average. Due to how great the rest of his game is, that is okay. Willits has the chance to be a 15 home run guy, which is more than good enough considering the rest of his profile. I have always liked the comparison of Geraldo Perdomo when discussing Willits.

One of Pipeline’s more interesting rankings is Travis Sykora. While Baseball America and Keith Law dropped him out of their top 100 list after his Tommy John Surgery, Pipeline still has him at 54th. Personally, I would probably have him somewhere in between, on the back end of a top 100.

Sykora was one of the most dominant minor league arms in the sport before going down with injury. In his pro career, Sykora has a 2.14 ERA and 208 strikeouts in 130.1 innings. He overwhelmed lower minors hitters with his three potentially plus pitches and strong feel for pitching.

Travis Sykora's 2nd Single-A @FXBGNats start of 2025:

– 9 up, 9 down
– 5 strikeouts
– 11 whiffs (on 25 swings)

The @Nationals' top-ranked prospect has allowed just 2 hits in 11 IP across two levels this season: pic.twitter.com/jUu98Se2YL

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 20, 2025

Sykora will need to throw his fastball in the zone more often when he comes back, but outside of that, he does not have many weaknesses on the mound. He fires a mid to upper 90’s heater from his unusual delivery. Sykora also has a slider and a splitter that can be plus pitches. The splitter was particularly effective in 2025 according to Pipeline. 

Unfortunately, Sykora will miss most, if not all of this season due to the surgery. If he looks as good as new when he comes back, Travis Sykora has the chance to really surge up the rankings. He has top of the rotation upside, and I cannot wait to see him pitch again.

The next player on the list is the only Nats top 100 prospect who was acquired this offseason. That would be Harry Ford, who the Nats got in the Jose A. Ferrer trade. Ford is the closest to the big leagues of all these guys, having already made his debut.

Seattle developed Ford for a number of years, but had no room for the catcher due to Cal Raleigh. That made him expendable, and the catcher needy Nats took advantage. Ford, who ranks 71st on Pipeline’s list, has average hitting ability and power, but that is amplified due to his elite plate discipline.

Harry Ford homers off Brandyn Garcia in the 8th. pic.twitter.com/DBJZ8gftXl

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) August 7, 2025

Ford has a real chance to be a strong offensive catcher. He has 18-20 homer power and can be a .260ish hitter. That .260 average will come with a .350+ on base percentage. In his minor league career, Ford has a .405 career OBP in 1,693 at bats, despite only having a .266 average. That ability to get on base gives him a strong offensive floor. Ford is also a great runner for his position and has a chance to steal up to 15 bags a season.

The defensive side of the game is more of a question mark. Pipeline gives his glove a 45 grade, meaning he is a slightly below average defender behind the plate. With how important defense is behind the plate, this is not ideal, but he is certainly playable as a catcher. 

Pipeline notes that he is a solid thrower, but his framing is not very good, even if it has gotten better over the years. With the challenge system coming in, that weakness could be mitigated. Ford’s leadership has been praised, which is something you like to see from a catcher. He will never be confused for Yadier Molina, but Ford should be able to stick behind the plate. 

The last National on the top 100 list is Jarlin Susana, who ranks as the 80th best prospect. Like Sykora, Susana had season ending surgery, but his recovery from lat surgery should not take as long.

Susana has some of the most electric stuff in the minor leagues. His fastball sits at 100 MPH and can get up to the 103-104 range. He also has the rare ability to hold his triple digit velocity deep into games. However, some scouts think his slider is even better than his fastball. Pipeline gives both pitches a 70 grade, which is plus-plus stuff.

Jarlin Susana with another good performance today:

5 IP 2 H 1 R 3 BB 10 K
20 whiffs

The arsenal is there! If he can keep his command in check, this is a scary arm!
pic.twitter.com/Fh7gAVHzkH

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) August 25, 2025

After struggling with injuries and inconsistency early in the season, Susana had a crazy run in the second half before his lat injury. Unfortunately, durability has been a problem for Susana in his career. He has had a few injury scares, which comes with the territory for pitchers with his velocity.

There are also some control issues, with Pipeline giving it a below average 40 grade. However, his stuff is so insane that he still has the chance to be a front of the rotation arm. If the injuries and control move him to a relief role, he could be one of the most dominant closers in baseball. 

As long as Susana stays healthy and is anywhere near the strike zone, he will be an impactful pitcher, either as a starter or a high leverage relief arm. Hopefully we can see him on the mound early in the 2026 season. His stuff is just so ridiculous.

It is nice to see Pipeline being higher on some of the Nats prospects. Having four guys in the top 80 is a good sign. There are also other players that could rise on to the list with good seasons. Paul Toboni traded for intriguing prospects like Gavin Fien, Luis Perales and Devin Fitz-Gerald this offseason. I see all of them as having top 100 upside.

This will be something to monitor as we head into the season. Right now the Nats have four top 100 guys. While Ford should graduate, there should be plenty of other Nats prospects waiting in the wings to take his spot on the top 100 list. MLB Pipeline is a great resource for fans, and I really appreciate their lists, especially when the Nats are well represented.

It has not been a fun time to be a prospect in the San Diego Padres farm system. For most of the position players, places to play are getting harder to find with multiple MLB players signed to play those positions at the major league level for years to come. Position player prospects may not even bother unpacking because Padres president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller uses them to add other players to the MLB roster. For the prospects who do not get traded, Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball found they are left to make up one of the worst farm systems in baseball according to various prospect rankings. The best prospect among them at least on some lists, is catcher Ethan Salas who has seen his stock drop since missing all but 10 games of the 2025 season. The 2026 season is fast approaching with Spring Training just around the corner. Perhaps it will over an opportunity for some young players who might be overlooked or underrated to show their potential.

Padres News:

• The Padres announced their promotional schedule for the 2026 season, which features scarves, bobbleheads, ponchos and more to entice fans to come out to Petco Park to watch their hometown team.
• Jaff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribunecontinued his Padres roster review looking at reliever Jeremiah Estrada. The Chicago Cubs castoff has found his home in the San Diego bullpen and he has become and integral part of the best ‘pen in the game.

Baseball News:

• Free agent outfielder Harrison Bader and the San Francisco Giants reportedly agreed to a two-year contract that will bring him to the NL West.
• Framber Valdez remains the best remaining free agent pitcher and many believe he will end up with the Baltimore Orioles. Eugenio Suarez and Luis Arraez are two of the top position players left, but Suarez has not seen a ton of interest and Arraez has had essentially no interest at all. Time is running out for free agents to sign with teams if they don’t want to delay the starts to their seasons as Spring Training is just a few weeks away.
• Joe Ryan has been discussed as a possible trade candidate for several teams this offseason. He and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a contract to avoid arbitration, which could keep him in Minnesota for 2026.
• Japan named eight players to its World Baseball Classic roster and the top among those names were Shohei Ohtani and his Los Angeles Dodgers teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
• Nolan Arenado, who was recently traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks from the St. Louis Cardinals, will play for Puerto Rico in the WBC.

Eight weeks ago, I broke down the possible paths the Orioles might go down to have a successful offseason. One of the possibilities I laid out was some combination of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez and a big bat like Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso. That possibility seems set to come to fruition, with reports that Baltimore is the frontrunner to sign the former Astro, Valdez.

Should the Orioles secure the 32-year-old lefty from the Dominican Republic, it would not only transform the top of the O’s rotation but also create an interesting competition for the No. 5 spot. Depending on how new manager Craig Albernaz wants to structure his rotation, you’d expect Valdez, Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers to fill in the top three spots in some order. Then, high-risk, high-reward acquisition Shane Baz will likely slide into the No. 4 spot. With four potential options to round out the rotation, filling that No. 5 spot will be one of the hardest decisions facing Alby and the new coaching staff.

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Option 1: RHP Dean Kremer

2025 stats: 11-10, 4.19 ERA, 171.2 IP, 142 Ks, 1.21 WHIP

I’ve consistently thought of Kremer as a pitcher you’d be happy to have as your No. 5 starter. Too often in the past, the Orioles have been forced to have Kremer take on a more important role in the rotation. In 2023, he was the Game 3 starter in the Orioles’ playoff series against Texas. In 2024, he was third in total starts and innings pitched and probably would’ve taken the ball in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series had the O’s made it that far. Last year, Kremer was the Orioles’ most consistently available starter, leading the team in innings pitched and strikeouts while making 31 appearances.

Heading into the 2026 season, Kremer finally has a chance to fill the role he was destined for. Given the other three options’ struggles with injuries (and on-field performance) in 2025, Kremer would come into spring training with the inside track on landing the final spot in the rotation. He should be the most stretched out of all Orioles pitchers, as he starts his competitive season earlier than most, headlining Team Israel’s rotation in the 2026 World Baseball Classic.

And not only would the fifth-starter role better fit Kremer’s “consistent, but rarely spectacular” brand of baseball, but it also may help Kremer avoid the early-season struggles that have plagued him in the past. Due to some extra rest days in the first month of the season, the fifth starter often doesn’t get a full complement of starts. That’d suit Kremer just fine, who sports a 6.24 ERA in March/April and a 3.88 ERA across all other months.

Option 2: RHP Zach Eflin

2025 stats: 6-5, 5.93 ERA, 71.1 IP, 50 Ks, 1.42 WHIP

While Kremer represents the steady, dependable option for the Orioles’ fifth starter, Eflin is the higher upside option. After a nine-start cameo in 2024 that saw him pitch to a 2.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 55.1 innings, Eflin came into last season as the Orioles Opening Day starter and de facto ace.

The first nine outings of his 2025 season were similarly encouraging. Eflin pitched to a 4.08 ERA, which went down to 3.02 if you removed an eight-run blow-up against the Nationals. Eflin then crumbled as he tried to gut through the effects of the back injury that ultimately ended his season. Over his final five outings of last season, Eflin put up an 11.29 ERA while allowing 37 hits and eight home runs over 18.1 innings.

The Orioles may choose to be cautious with the 10-year MLB vet, as he looks to bounce back from the fourth major back injury of his career. If the O’s slow play his build-up in the spring, he may fall behind Kremer in the early-season pecking order. However, if Eflin is fully healthy when the team leaves Sarasota in two months, he may get the nod based on his contract. Eflin is set to make $10M in 2025, compared to $5.75M for Kremer.

Option 3: LHP Cade Povich

2025 stats: 3-8, 5.21 ERA, 112.1 IP, 118 Ks, 1.50 WHIP

Povich was in a similar position last year and ended up breaking spring training as the Orioles’ No. 5 starter. What happened after that was a bit of a trainwreck for the 25-year-old southpaw. In Povich’s first 13 starts of the season, the lefty they call Slim posted a 5.15 ERA, gave up a .286 average against, and overall, struggled to string together decent outings.

Povich missed six weeks in the middle of the season with a hip injury and wasn’t much better when he came off the IL. In nine starts down the stretch, his ERA grew to 5.29, his batting average against remained in the .280s and he continued to give up home runs at an alarming rate. In fact, Povich’s 1.4 HR/9 rate would have been one of the 10 worst in all of baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

The former Nebraska Cornhusker does have two factors in his favor: youth and strikeout upside. Povich is at least four years younger than any of the other pitchers he’s competing against, meaning Albernaz and the new staff may want to give him another opportunity to maximize his upside. The coaching staff may also want another pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. Outside of Bradish, Povich was the only starter last year who posted a K/9 greater than nine.

Option 4: RHP Tyler Wells

2025 stats: 2-1, 2.91 ERA, 21.2 IP, 18 Ks, 0.88 WHIP

Wells is the ultimate wild card, as the Orioles could choose to use him in rotation, the bullpen or a hybrid, Albert Suárez-type role. The towering righty from Oklahoma has only pitched 27 innings over the last two seasons due to a UCL injury that required surgery, though not a full reconstruction. The fact that he moved back into the rotation last year upon his return from injury was a bit surprising, but his results justified it.

In four starts at the end of last season, Wells had two quality starts, limited opponents to a .213 batting average and only issued two walks in 21.2 innings. Home runs were a problem for him—he allowed a home run in each of his starts—but overall, he looked like pre-All-Star break, 2023 Tyler Wells again. If that’s the type of pitcher he can be over 25+ starts, he jumps to the front of the line for the Orioles fifth starter spot.

However, Wells’ biggest problem has always been his durability. After throwing 104.2 innings in the first half of 2023, he faded after the All-Star break. The former Rule 5 draft pick hit a wall in the second half, ultimately being demoted to Double-A midseason before being brought back as a reliever. Wells has never thrown 120+ innings in a season, and asking him to be a full-time starter may simply not be the best use of the innings the Orioles can get out of him.

Good morning.

Kennedi Landry has more on the prospect cost that the Texas Rangers shipped out to Washington to land left-hander MacKenzie Gore.

Shawn McFarland writes about Evan Carter’s health and how much the Rangers are counting on him becoming an everyday contributor.

And, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel unveiled his top 100 prospects list with Sebastian Walcott near the top and Caden Scarborough sneaking in at the bottom.

Have a nice day!

Diamondbacks News

D-backs’ newest 3B Nolan Arenado joins Team Puerto Rico for WBC by Wendy Lopez [Burn City Sports]

The move marks a major shift from the 2023 tournament, when Arenado played for Team USA, as he now looks to represent his heritage after previously competing for his home country. The Diamondbacks’ third baseman has Puerto Rican heritage through his mom’s side and now has the opportunity to represent his roots on baseball’s biggest international stage.

Diamondbacks Heavy Lifting Done for the Offseason by Michael McDermott [D-backs Under Review]

With a little bit of hindsight, it was pretty obvious from the onset that the Diamondbacks were handicapped financially entering the offseason. Injuries to Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. limited what they could do. The quartet combined for $53.6 million of Arizona’s 209.2 million payroll for 2026 (Cots), or 25.6%.

With injuries completely decimating the pitching staff, which will linger into 2026, D-backs GM Mike Hazen had some tough decisions to make. He chose to address the rotation and third base this offseason, at the expense of the bullpen.

MLB Admits What D-backs Fans Already Know About Ketel Marte by Alex D’Agostino [SI]

There’s no denying Marte, from a statistical standpoint, holds the advantage over the rest of MLB. He led all qualified second basemen in OPS (.893) in 2025 — a full 80 points above Jazz Chisholm in second place. 

Despite missing a decent chunk of time with an injury, and finding himself in the middle of some mid-season drama, he also managed the third-most homers (28) and fourth-most doubles (also 28), while slashing an immense .283/.376/.517 and posting a 145 wRC+ (45% above league average) per FanGraphs.

Around the League

Astros Forbid Jose Altuve From World Baseball Classic by Justin Carlucci [Heavy]

The Houston Astros have made their position clear. Jose Altuve will not represent Venezuela in the 2026 World Baseball Classic, and the decision came from the organization, not the player. According to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Astros requested that their 36-year-old second baseman skip the tournament to focus on spring training preparation.​​

The club hasn’t officially confirmed the news, but Altuve’s comments from Saturday’s FanFest made the situation obvious. “I signed the paper that I’m willing to go play like I did the last two WBCs,” Altuve told reporters. “Always an honor to represent my country. I played in the last one and the one before, and I’m trying to do it in this one. I don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes, but it seems this year is not up to me. Hopefully everything clears up, and I’ll be able to go.”​

Zac Gallen’s keys to a bounce back in 2026 by David Adler [MLB]

Zac Gallen is a workhorse starting pitcher with two top-five Cy Young finishes in the past four years who’s still just 30 years old. Sounds like a top-tier free agent.

But instead, he’s a polarizing one because of his rocky 2025 season. Gallen still pitched 192 innings and recorded 175 strikeouts for the D-backs, but his ERA spiked to 4.83, one of the highest among qualified pitchers, and he just didn’t look the same as the ace-level Gallen of 2022-23.

The Most Baseball a Baseball Town Can Be by Amanda Vogt [FanGraphs]

This is Irmo, South Carolina, the most baseball a baseball town can be. 

Irmo is so baseball that last year it sent not one, not two, not three, but four teams in different divisions to the Little League World Series — baseball teams of up to 12-, 13- and 16-year-old boys, along with a girls softball team. Little League has seven divisions, each of which holds a national tournament of top teams every year, the World Series. Do the math: One community sent clubs to more than half the national competitions.

Irmo is so baseball that championship jerseys hang in local restaurants as relics of pride with signatures of the ball players, who are treated as local celebrities.

MLB’s top 5 breakout teams for 2026 by Bradford Doolittle [ESPN]

Last year, there were three teams that beat their baseline win figure by at least 10, all in the American League: the White Sox, the Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Breaking out means different things for different teams. For the White Sox, it meant being less terrible than their record-setting 2024 collapse. For the Athletics, it meant a return to respectability, laying the foundation for a possible playoff run in 2026. For the Blue Jays, it meant falling inches shy of a World Series championship.

Giants Sign Harrison Bader by Steve Adams [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Giants have a notable upgrade to their outfield defense in place, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $20.5MM contract with free agent outfielder Harrison Bader. The Vayner Sports client can earn an additional $500K via incentives, bringing the deal’s maximum value to $21MM.

Bader, 31, has been a free agent for three consecutive offseasons but now lands the multi-year deal that’s previously eluded him. He signed one-year deals with the Mets and Twins, respectively, over the past two winters. Bader turned in a career-best performance in Minnesota and was red hot for the Phillies down the stretch after joining them in a deadline swap, and the market has rewarded that strong 2025 performance.

• Matt Olson
• Michael Harris II
• Ozzie Albies
• Bryce Elder
• Austin Riley
• Drake Baldwin
• Ronald Acuña Jr.
• Chris Sale

Sigh, this is a depressing one of these to do. Everything about Spencer Strider was, in theory, so awesome, that it didn’t seem like a little thing like a year-long layoff due to elbow troubles was going to derail his career. Surely someone so diligent in being in tune with his body and mechanics could hit the ground running, right? Well, not exactly. After an uneven 2025, Strider’s outlook is uncertain, and pretty fraught.

Career-to-date, status

Drafted in the fourth round of the shortened 2020 MLB Draft, Strider pitched at five different levels (including MLB) in his first professional season. He started 2022 in the big league bullpen, but transitioned to the rotation at the end of May, and well, it seemed like the rest would be history. A hilariously dominant 2022 season could’ve earned him Rookie of the Year honors had his teammate, Michael Harris II, not taken that piece of hardware. (Strider actually had barely more fWAR than Harris, 4.9 to 4.7, though he was pitching in the bullpen while Harris was in the minors.) Strider then spent a full year in the rotation in 2023, and “hilariously dominant” still applied. His 5.5 fWAR that year was second only to Zack Wheeler’s 5.9. All in all, including his time in the bullpen, Strider put up 10.3 fWAR in 318 1/3 innings in 2022-2023, with a 79 ERA-, 59 FIP-, and 63 xFIP-. While perhaps not video game numbers, they were essentially dominant reliever numbers, but from a guy who was close to six innings a game as a starter.

Disaster struck fairly quickly after that, though. Strider looked like himself in his first start of 2024, but not so much in the second, and then missed the rest of the year with an elbow issue that let him avoid Tommy John Surgery, but not missing about a year of action anyway.

Even before his 2023 gave serious credence to the possibility of him being the best starter in the game, the Braves inked him to a $75 million, six-year extension in October 2022. It was, at the time, the highest average annual value for a player with between one and two years of service time. The extension gave Strider relatively low salaries through 2025, but bumps his pay up to $20 million for 2026 and $22 million for the two years thereafter, along with a $22 million club option for 2029 with a $5 million buyout. At the time, it was a move in line with the exuberance of the moment. In 2023, the only concern was that he might eventually get injured. In 2024, well, he got injured. What came after has basically become the antithesis of that exuberance.

Recent performance

2025 was a problem for the Braves, and with regard to Strider’s outlook even moreso than just the mess that was that calendar year for the organization. The main problem, as I’ll get into a bit below, wasn’t that Strider was rusty — it was that rather than improving, he more or less fell apart as the season went on. Maybe it’s not right to have expected rust removal or improvement with experience post-elbow procedure, but given that the proverbial ship seemingly unrighted itself after he had regained a level of decent performance, there are certainly a lot of concerns for Strider heading into 2026.

To be more specific, Strider struggled a fair bit in his first five starts back, though this was not surprising given the layoff and the fact that a hamstring injury actually forced him to take another monthlong break from active duty after his first start of the year. He then reeled off a seven-start stretch where no one would fault you for thinking that Strider was back: in 42 2/3 innings, he put together a 60 ERA-, 61 FIP-, and 66 xFIP-. Nor was this an artifact of facing weak teams, as five of those seven games came against teams that finished in the top ten in wRC+, including the top-finishing Yankees. (Even without the Rockies, the line goes to 70/74/76.) Unfortunately, and here’s the rub: he didn’t keep it going.

There was a two-homer game against the Giants, a poor-peripherals game against the Royals, and then another two-homer game against the Brewers. Whether you want to include those in the “Strider was fine/good” or “Strider was bad” column isn’t really the point, because after that, things just got awful. Strider’s final eight starts of the season featured eight homers, but leaving HR/FB concerns aside, he had a garbage-quality 124/133/125 line. I’m not going to use this projections post to talk about the specific issues he had (see his season review, among other things, for that), but the point is that Strider got worse and never really showed he could un-get worse after those dreadful seven weeks.

All in all, his 2025 involved 0.9 fWAR over 125 1/3 innings with a 105/111/102 line; the okay-ish xFIP could be offset by the fact that his xERA was much worse than his xFIP, assuming you give any weight to xERA as a measure of pitching effectiveness.

Forecasting

Same brief disclaimer: once upon a time I built a projection system to try to mirror/get at the workings of Steamer and ZiPS. I called it IWAG. You can figure out what that means, maybe. I’m bringing it back for this series of posts. Here’s Strider, for 2026.

This is probably the most fraught point estimate of this series. It makes Strider out to be an above-average starter with health issues. But… we know things are a little different. Namely, this is an average of his possible divergent outcomes, with some discounting of his availability given that he missed quite a lot of time in 2024-2025.

Steamer has Strider at around 3.4 WAR per 200 innings, with a point estimate of 161 innings and 2.7 WAR. ZiPS is at 3.2/200 and a point estimate of 2.2 WAR in about 138 innings. IWAG is more conservative on all fronts, but not really all that different (which makes sense because it was built to understand Steamer and ZiPS). So, no discrepancy, but…

Is Strider good or not? I don’t know. I’m not sure anyone knows. Maybe he’ll go back to pre-injury form. Maybe he’ll look like 2025. It’s possible he ends up somewhere in the middle, I guess, but we haven’t seen much middling performance from him at any point, so I’m not sure where that would come from. One of the two poles seems more likely at this point. And, there’s a huge competitive swing for the Braves depending on which of the two you get. I have a headache now. Who’s next on the list? Jurickson Profar? Well… that’s only somewhat less fraught. What a stretch of guys with variable performance we’ve been privy to.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

• Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Spencer Strider produce in 2026? (If you ignore this and provide a partial fWAR, I will round it for you, and your scoring will not be based on 1 WAR around your point estimate, but 1 WAR around the rounded number.)
• How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

Good morning! We fans probably downplay the effect a trade has on a baseball player. Could you imagine how disrupting it would be if your employers could force you into a different job in a different city in an instant? But Payton Tolle isn’t too fazed by the trade rumors, which is just one thing he discussed during this great interview on MLB Network.

Talk about what you want, keep digging out from that snow, and be good to one another.

If it is late January on the the MLB Calendar, that means it is prospect lists galore. And for Cam Caminiti, it is further validation that he is emerging as one of the best young pitching prospects on the game. Both Keith Law and MLB Pipeline see the young southpaw as the Braves best prospect, and an arm that is moving up top 100 lists across baseball. It could really be a huge year for Caminiti, who is clearly the prize of the Braves farm.

Braves News

ESPN tabbed the Braves as being the most likely team to “bounce back” to contention in 2026. This prediction has some merit, as many projection systems still see the Braves as one of the top teams in baseball. Health and a return to normal production for many players is the key.

Jose Suarez was once again claimed by the Braves from the Orioles.

MLB News

Harrison Bader signed a two year deal with the San Francisco Giants.

Meet the Mets

Tim Britton and Will Sammon made their predictions on how the Mets’ roster will look.

Brian Murphy explained why Bo Bichette is not new to Carlos Mendoza, despite being new to the Mets’ organization.

Four Mets ended up in The Athletic’s Top 100 prospects list, including two guys in the Top 20.

Sam Dykstra picked out some Mets prospects who could end up cracking the Top 100.

Around the National League East

The Braves claimed reliever José Suarez off waivers and designated George Soriano for assignment to make room on the roster.

There could be a change to the Phillies’ lineup this year, specifically with where Bryce Harper is hitting.

Around Major League Baseball

Manny Randhawa listed the ten best games from the 2025 season.

Brian Murphy looked at 18 players who are on the rise in 2026, based on where they ranked on the list of Top 100 players.

Will Leitch ranked the 13 All-Stars on the Dodgers’ roster.

Bradford Doolittle explored five teams that could be poised for a break out in 2026.

David Adler outlined four keys to a bounce-back season for free agent starter Zac Gallen.

Many teams appear interested in free agent Lucas Giolito.

Old Friend Harrison Bader, who has played for both the Mets and Yankees, is signing with the Giants on a two-year deal.

Joe Ryan and the Twins agreed to a contract to avoid arbitration.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Lukas Vlahos graded the team’s acquisition of Luis Robert Jr.

Ryan Clifford came in at number 8 on the Amazin’ Avenue list of Mets’ prospects list.

This Date in Mets History

The Mets dealt Steven Matz to the Blue Jays for a package that featured Sean Reid-Foley, Josh Winchowski, and Yennsy Diaz on this date in 2021. On the same day, they signed Aaron Loup, who pitched in one season for New York and set a franchise record for fewest earned runs allowed (six) with at least 50 innings pitched.

Yesterday, we told you about the four Red Sox prospects who made their way into MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list: Payton Tolle, Franklin Arias, Connelly Early, and Kyson Witherspoon. Today, we have a new prospect ranking — this one from the Athletic’s Keith Law. The same four players are on it, though Law is comparatively lower on Tolle (he has him 40th compared to Pipeline’s 19, admitting that he wasn’t high on him to start last season) and comparatively higher on Arias, who he has at number 12 compared to Pipeline’s 31. (Keith Law The Athletic)

But is it risky to get too attached to any of those guys? According to a new report, the Red Sox remain interested in infielder Isaac Parades of the Astros, though no deal is particularly close. (Chandler Rome, The Athletic)

Though the fact that no deal is particularly close right now doesn’t mean that a deal can’t come together quickly, as evidenced by the Ranger Suárez signing. In this piece that dives into the pursuit of the pitcher, we learn that the Red Sox met with Suárez way back at the start of the offseason after deciding he was the best fit among this year’s class of free agent pitchers. But that was as far as things went until the Sox were forced to pivot quickly following the Alex Bregman departure. (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Speaking of the Alex Bregman departure, it’s a little unsettling that we still have no idea who is going to play third base for the 2026 Red Sox— or second base for that matter. But Marcelo Mayer is going to be prepared either way: “I’m doing everything I can, taking reps at third and at second base, and I feel really good at both. So wherever they need me is where I’m gonna play, and I’m gonna do my best out there.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

As for who will play whichever position Mayer doesn’t man, can I interest you is some Dylan Moore?

They’ve had some conversations with Dylan Moore, per source, but unclear if they’ll be his final destination.

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) January 26, 2026

Moore is 33 years old and hit .201 for two MLB teams last year, so if your answer to that question is “no,” I don’t blame you.

Dylan Cease (how come I’ve been saying his name Cleese like he’s John Cleese son?) is a 30-year-old, right-handed pitcher whom the Jays signed to a 5-year, $210 million contract. It is more than possible that the last couple of years of that contract won’t go well.

Cease has pitched seven seasons in the MLB and has a 65-58 record, 3.88 ERA in 188 starts, and a 16.7 bWAR. His best season was 2022, when he had a 2.20 ERA, went 14-8 in 32 starts, and posted a 6.4 bWAR, finishing second in Cy Young voting (he finished fourth in 2024).

In our post about the signing, we had a poll. 42.9% of us were ‘Kind of Happy’, 41.8% were Very Happy. Only 5.1% were Kind of or Very Unhappy. I’m slightly curious how you could be very upset, but maybe they were Yankees fans.

But then we also had a poll asking, ‘Should the Jays sign Cease if the cost is $31 million a year for five years?’ and 64.2% said no. So we are nothing if not flexible.

Last year wasn’t his best; he had an 8-12 record and a 4.55 ERA in 32 starts. Everyone is allowed a down year.

He’s been incredibly durable. He’s made 32 or 33 starts in each of the last five seasons. The season before that was COVID-shortened. And he’s thrown between 165 and 189 innings in those five seasons.

Dylan throws five pitches, but his Four Seamer (averaging 97.1 MPH last year) and Slider show up 83% percent of the time. The rest: Knuckle Curve, Sinker, Sweeper, and Change-up. I’d think that, as he ages and perhaps loses a bit on the fastball, he’ll have to start throwing one or two of those secondary pitches more often.

I’d like to think he’ll be in the 2-4 range for WAR in most of his seasons with the Jays, but I’ll hold out hope that he can have another 5+ season. Dylan threw a lot of innings in his 20s, and often, guys like that don’t age well, but ‘often’ isn’t ‘always’.

Steamer thinks he’ll make 32 starts, throw 185 innings with a 3.61 ERA and a 12-10 record and a 3.8 fWAR. I think 185 innings is a lot; he’s only been over that once in his career, and the Jays aren’t the kind of team to push a starter.