Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for July 1

Arizona (43-42) extended its winning streak over San Francisco (35-50) to eight games and remained undefeated versus the Giants this year.

The Diamondbacks have outscored the Giants, 45-21 in the season series. However, over June, Arizona hit .225 (26th) with the third-fewest runs scored (99) over 27 games. The Diamondbacks pitching staff also boasted bottom 10 numbers for the month like ERA (4.90, 25th) and OBA (.267, 25th). Arizona will face Milwaukee, San Diego, and the Los Angeles Dodgers to wrap up the first half of the season.

San Francisco has lost four of the previous six games and seven of the last 11. The Giants have the fourth-worst road record on the year (17-28) and lost five straight away from home. San Francisco will look to Trevor McDonald to snap the losing streak as he attempts to break the three-game losing streak the Giants have when he's on the mound (plus six of the last seven).

Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game details & how to watch Giants at Diamondbacks

  • Date: Wednesday, July 1, 2026
  • Time: 9:40 PM EST
  • Site: Chase Field 
  • City: Phoenix, AZ
  • Network/Streaming: MLB TV

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Giants at the Diamondbacks

The latest odds as of Wednesday:

  • Moneyline: San Francisco Giants (+109), Arizona Diamondbacks (-131)
  • Spread: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+153), Giants +1.5 (-186)
  • Total: 9.5

Probable starting pitchers for Giants at Diamondbacks 

  • Wednesday's pitching matchup (July 1): Trevor McDonald vs. Zac Gallen 
  • Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen

2026 stats: 86.1 IP, 3-7, 6.15 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 52 K, 27 BB

  • Giants: Trevor McDonald

2026 Stats: 51.0 IP, 2-6, 4.94 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 45 Ks, 19 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not

  • The Giants’ Luis Arraez is hitting .331 with 105 hits, 4 home runs and 32 RBI over 317 at-bats
  • The Giants’ Drew Gilbert is hitting .228 with 38 hits and 34 strikeouts over 167 at-bats
  • The Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll is hitting .272 with 83 hits, 13 home runs, and 43 RBI over 305 at-bats
  • The Diamondbacks’ Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is hitting .226 with 31 hits and 26 strikeouts over 137 at-bats

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Giants at Diamondbacks

  • San Francisco is 39-46 ATS, ranking eighth-worst
  • Arizona is 46-39 ATS, ranking eighth-best
  • San Francisco is 40-38-7 to the Under
  • Arizona is an MLB-leading 45-35-5 to the Under
  • San Francisco is 20-25 ATS on the road, ranking seventh-worst
  • Arizona is 23-18 ATS at home, ranking sixth-best

Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Diamondbacks and the Giants

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Wednesday's game between the Diamondbacks and the Giants:

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Giants on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Giants at -1.5.
  • Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Under on the Game Total of 9.5

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Blake Grimmer returning to Tennessee baseball for 2027

Tennessee's Blake Grimmer (14) rounds third base towards home plate during an NCAA college baseball game against Texas in Knoxville, Tennessee on May 8, 2026. | Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After testing the MLB Draft waters, Blake Grimmer has opted to withdraw his name from this month’s event. He will instead return to Tennessee baseball for another season in Knoxville.

The announcement was made on Wednesday afternoon.

Grimmer hit .283 with 13 home runs and 36 RBIs during the 2026 season, which was his first full season as a starter. He will be a redshirt junior next season, where he can play either first, second or third base. Grimmer hit .18 with four home runs during the 2025 season. He redshirted during Tennessee’s 2024 national title season.

Grimmer eventually settled in the No. 2 spot in Tennessee’s lineup for Josh Elander after dealing with an injury that cost him the early portions of the season. The former top 150 overall prospect in the class of 2023 will now be one of Tennessee’s top returners next season.

After playing second base for much of last season, Grimmer will likely slide elsewhere with former Air Force second baseman Wyatt Hanoian now in the lineup. Hanioan hit .357 with 49 RBIs last year for the Falcons.

The MLB Draft is set to begin on July 11th, where Elander and the staff will get a clearer picture of next year’s roster.

MLBPA labor proposal would increase roster size, protect players from demotion

The Major League Baseball Players Association is seeking to expand major league rosters by 60 players to open the regular season in their latest proposal with MLB on Wednesday, with teams rosters increasing from 26 players to 28 players for the first 15 days of the regular season.

It was one of several proposals designed to increase roster size that also included the ability for players to be placed on the 60-day injured list before clubs are required to submit 40-man rosters, enabling clubs to protect more players.

The union is also seeking to reduce the number of times a player can be optioned to the minor leagues in a season from five times to three.

It also wants to reduce the amount of time a team can protect minor league players from being subjected to the Rule 5 draft beginning in November before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on Dec. 1, 2026.

Teams would also be prohibited from optioning pitchers to the minor leagues immediately after games and during the All-Star break if they meet certain thresholds to help reduce roster manipulation.

Pitchers who record at least nine outs or throw at least 50 pitches in a game and is optioned afterwards would be credited with four days of major-league salary and service. If pitchers reach that criteria within seven days of the All-Star break, pitchers would receive salary and service time up to four games after the All-Star break.

The union is also asking that clubs share their non-proprietary performance data and video with all of their players.

The union said their proposals are “designed to improve the game, protect players’ health and safety, strengthen the free market, and provide meaningful support to our full fraternity."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLBPA labor proposal would increase roster size, protect players from demotion

Wrapping up a great road trip in the best possible way

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 29: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gets showered with sunflower seeds by Teoscar Hernandez #37 after Ohtani hit a three-run home run against the Athletics in the top of the six inning at Sutter Health Park on June 29, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images

When they started this road trip, the Dodgers already had one of the better road records in all of baseball, but in one fell swoop, they’ve taken that into unserious territory. Winners of seven of their last eight games away from home, the Dodgers now have a 30-16 record on the road, with the latest of these 30 wins representing the number 1.000 of Dave Roberts’ career.

To claim that the offense has been outstanding in this road trip might not do it justice; it has averaged seven runs per game throughout these eight duels, scoring nine in each of the first two games against the Athletics in West Sacramento. Between these two matchups, a total of five different hitters have left the yard: Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman, and Miguel Rojas. Definitely looking to join in on the fun for this series finale will be Mookie Betts, the leader in home runs on this road trip with three. A’s starter J.T. Ginn has been the team’s ace this season, but having handled Gage Jump with relative ease, the Dodgers offense will likely be unfazed by the best the A’s have to offer.

On their pitching side of things, the Dodgers will most likely go with a bullpen game, having pushed Shohei Ohtani back a couple of days. Roki Sasaki will take the ball on Thursday night against the Padres when the Dodgers return home, while Ohtani pitches on Friday.

Wednesday’s game info

  • Teams: Dodgers at Athletics
  • Ballpark: Sutter Health Park, West Sacramento
  • Start time: 6:40 p.m. PT
  • TV: SportsNet LA
  • Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Mets at Blue Jays: Lineups, broadcast info, and open thread, 7/1/26

Jun 20, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Mets lineup

Carson Benge – RF
Juan Soto – DH
Bo Bichette – 3B
Francisco Lindor – SS
A.J. Ewing – CF
Francisco Alvarez – C
Jared Young – 1B
Brett Baty – 2B
Tyrone Taylor – LF

SP: Freddy Peralta – RHP

Blue Jays lineup

Nathan Lukes – RF
Vladimir Guerrero – 1B
Kazuma Okamoto – 3B
Daulton Varsho – CF
Alejandro Kirk – C
Yohendrick Pinango – LF
Ernie Clement – 2B
Sean Keys – DH
Andres Gimenez – SS

SP: Spencer Miles – RHP

Broadcast info

First pitch: 3:07 PM ET
TV: SNY
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

2026 MLB Home Run Derby: Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber join the field, new rules, how to watch

The countdown to the 2026 T-Mobile MLB Home Run Derby is on. The annual showcase of the game’s top sluggers will take place on Monday, July 13 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

The full list of competitors is still being finalized, so check back as more names are confirmed!

RELATED:Watch the first round of the MLB Draft and the 2026 MLB Futures game on NBC and Peacock!

When is the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?

  • Date: Monday, July 13
  • Place: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: Netflix

Who is in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?

Kyle Schwarber (32 home runs - 1st in MLB)

Okay, now we're talking. Schwarber leads the majors in homers and the Home Run Derby in is Philly, so this pretty much had to happen. One of the greatest power hitters of his generation, Schwarber is on pace to become the first player in franchise history with two 50-homer seasons. This will be his third time participating in a Home Run Derby, but he's yet to win. Monday night is going to be a blast, literally and figuratively.

Bryce Harper (20 home runs)

With Schwarber participating on his home field, it only makes sense for Harper to do the same. The 30-year-old just reached the 20-homer mark for the 12th time in his legendary career. One fun wrinkle here is that Harper previously beat Kyle Schwarber to win the Home Run Derby crown in 2018 at Nationals Park. It would be pretty fun to see a rematch in the finals in front of their home crowd.

Ben Rice (28 home runs - 3rd in MLB)

Recently named to his first All-Star team, Rice has elected to participate in his first Home Run Derby, as well. With Aaron Judge sidelined, Rice has emerged as the Yankees' key power source this season. While the 27-year-old has cooled down in recent weeks, he leads the Bombers in both home runs and RBI. Making the upcoming Home Run Derby extra special, Rice announced on Instagram that his dad, Dan, will be throwing to him.

Junior Caminero (27 home runs — tied 4th in MLB)

Caminero is back to avenge last year's loss to Cal Raleigh in the finals. The 22-year-old became the first confirmed competitor after making an announcement on his Instagram account. After exploding for 45 home runs in 2025, the 22-year-old continues to establish himself as one of the game’s elite power bats. He recently became the youngest player since 1900 to hit a home run in six straight games. Caminero is a big reason why the Rays own the best record in the American League.

Jac Caglianone (14 home runs)

Caglianone isn't an All-Star, but he's headed to Philadelphia for his first Home Run Derby. The 23-year-old struggled as a rookie last season, but he's made some major strides so far this year, including nine homers and a 1.036 OPS in the month of June. Caglianone has a quick bat (97th percentile in bat speed) from the left side of the plate and hits the ball extremely hard, as he ranks in the 92nd percentile or higher in barrel percentage, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. He's also among the leaders in average home run distance. Get ready for a fun power display in Philly.

Willson Contreras (20 home runs)

Contreras will appear in his first Home Run Derby at the age of 34. He's enjoyed a great first half with the Red Sox, reaching 20 homers for the seventh time in his career. He's poised to blow well past his career-high of 24 homers from 2019. The power has been legitimately impressive, as he's tied for second in the majors in average home run distance. Contreras was recently named to the All-Star team after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. withdrew due to a back injury. He'll aim to become the first Red Sox player to win the competition since David Ortiz in 2010.

Jordan Walker (22 home runs - tied 10th in MLB)

One of the best stories of the 2026 season so far, Walker has finally begun to deliver on his immense potential. The 24-year-old former top prospect has already established a new career-high in home runs while seeing major boosts in his quality of contact. His elite average bat speed (79.1 mph) is only topped by Junior Caminero, who is also tapped to participate in this year's Home Run Derby.

2026 MLB Home Run Derby Rules

This year’s Home Run Derby comes with some new wrinkles, as MLB has done away with the timer that has been used since 2015. Instead, the competition will go back to a swing-based format.

Here’s what to know:

  • Round 1: 20 swings
  • Round 2: 15 swings
  • Finals: 15 swings

Note: If a hitter homers on their final swing, they can continue to swing until they don’t homer.

Consistent with recent years, there is no bracket for the first round, as all eight hitters will compete within a single pool. The top four home run hitters will advance to the second round and seeding will be based on how many home runs were hit in the first round, with distance serving as the tiebreaker. In the second and third rounds, ties would be decided by three-swing swing-offs.

Who are the recent Home Run Derby winners?

2025: Cal Raleigh

2024: Teoscar Hernandez

2023: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

2022: Juan Soto

2021: Pete Alonso

2020: N/A

2019: Pete Alonso

2018: Bryce Harper

2017: Aaron Judge

Reynaldo López takes the mound to start for the Braves versus St. Louis

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 26: Reynaldo Lopez #40 of the Atlanta Braves pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning at Oracle Park on June 26, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Someone (rightfully) corrected me that the Sunday series finale versus the Giants was not the end of June, as we had one more left to play on June 30. In my defense, I was thinking it was the last series of the month, and thus it was basically done.

Well, June said “I got one more [Braves loss] in me” – the Braves dropped the Cardinals series opener yesterday in similar fashion: giving up homers while not hitting homers. Dismal, abysmal, etc. 

Let’s start fresh. Please be good to us, July. 

The Braves will be looking to equalize the series this evening with Reynaldo López (3-1, 3.47 ERA) on the mound. Making his second start since re-joining the rotation, López will be looking to build upon his outing versus San Francisco. With his ~60 pitch limit, he went three innings, gave up one run, and struck out one. He settled down after the first inning where the run scored. Here’s to hoping that those 57 pitches go a long way for his confidence and that he can stifle a productive Cardinals lineup for however long he’s allowed to stay on the mound. We’ll see if the Grant Holmes long-relief bullpen move sticks or if Hurston Waldrep can find more command in a longer relief outing than his season debut.

Only three Cardinals have seen Reynaldo before with a maximum of two at-bats: Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, and Mayn Winn. Herrera and Winn have one strikeout apiece, and Winn also worked a walk once.

The Braves are hoping to find their powerstroke (or any stroke at all, really) against 25-year old Michael McGreevy (3-6, 3.12 ERA). Utilizing a seven-pitch mix and unafraid to fill up the strike zone, McGreevy has delivered quality starts in four out of his last five outings. His most recent appearance was six scoreless against June’s hottest team, the Miami Marlins. We’re hoping for more of a final line like his June 19 start versus the Royals: L, 5 IP, 8 H, and 5 ER. 

In some fun symmetry, only three Braves have seen McGreevy before with limited experience. The new guys Dominic Smith, Joey Bart, and Mike Yazstrzemski have nine at-bats in total. Dom Smith has the lone hit of the group with a double. 

Is “pride of Georgia Tech” Joey Bart the only one allowed to hit homers around here? Ozzie Albies, I’m not talking to you, you’re fine. It’s a new month. Let’s get after it, boys.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, July 1, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Julyeball Scout Report As Hopes, Like The Sun, Sink Slowly In The West

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 30: Henry Bolte #33 of the Athletics catches a fly ball at the wall hit by Andy Pages #44 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (not in photo) in the top of the fourth inning at Sutter Health Park on June 30, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images

To think the AL West is so flawed this season that 3 teams, hovering just above or below the .500 mark, are clustered within 2 games of one another battling for 1st place.

Trouble is the A’s are not one of those teams. Now 6 games under .500, with a better team on the IL than on the field and an ERA north of 6.00 at home, the A’s enter July on a precipice trying to avoid falling more clearly out of any possible playoff picture. Numerically they’re still relevant so long as you don’t watch the actual performance.

Here are some random eyeball notes as the calendar turns to July and the A’s hope a new month brings a new level of play to a hobbled and reeling club…

Henry Bolte, CF

Bolte has been one of the bright spots, still maintaining a 110 wRC+ and keeping Lawrence Butler out of CF. There has been plenty to like, from his .370 OBP to 11 stolen bases in just 44 games.

Where the Eyeball Scout is less impressed than the stats is Bolte’s CF play so far. It hasn’t been bad, mind you, but Fangraphs gives him above average ratings with +2 DRS and +2 OAA. That’s not quite what I have seen. Last night provided one latest example of a “Bleday read” where Bolte’s initial step was back followed by an arc route in for a shallow fly ball that fell in.

A key difference between Bleday and Bolte, of course, is that Bolte’s elite sprint speed allows him to outrun the majority of his mistakes — but that doesn’t mean he can afford to get poor reads or jumps often, as sometimes the lost ground is simply too much to make up.

I have seen some tangible improvements from when Bolte first arrived, such as not overthrowing the cut off man recently. He still does not take charge as much as you would ideally like, a case in point being the drive to the left-center field wall that Joey Meneses missed because he finds catching fly balls either hard or a nuisance. Thanks to his speed, Bolte got there in time to catch it, but deferred to an outfielder known to be terrible at fielding.

In any event, I’m still optimistic that Bolte can be at least an average CFer if not better, but I kind of expect the metrics to catch up to my eyes and for him to settle in at only being average now. Still, at a premium defensive position, “average” at age 22 is not a bad thing. I just think there is a lot of work yet to do.

Max Muncy (ours)

I won’t harp on this too much because I wrote about it recently, but with each passing day far from getting more comfortable and improving, in fact Muncy’s 3B defensive metrics continue to slide.

After last night’s game, in which I thought an E-5 absolutely should have been charged on a sharply hit ball Muncy ‘ole’d’ to his left, here is how his 3B numbers look: 342.2 innings (38 full games), -12 DRS, -7 OAA.

It’s bad enough that the A’s need to make it a priority not to play him there, whether it means DHing him, benching him, or optioning him.

Obviously the timing is poor with both Jacob Wilson and Zack Gelof sidelined, but since Muncy is not hitting much anyway (.235/.299/.409 for the season now with a 32.9% K rate), the A’s would in fact be a better team with McNeil-Williams-Kuroda-Grauer or Kuroda-Grauer-Williams-Hernaiz at 2B, SS, 3B.

You could even make a case for calling up Tommy White even though his inflated stats at AAA are still below league average. The reasoning would be that White has made only 2 errors in 28 games at 3B and that if you are going to get limited range and a below average bat at 3B it may as well come with more sure-handed defense and fewer strikeouts.

But for now the A’s best bet is probably a “defense first” arrangement that puts a somewhat ghastly bottom 1/3 of the order out there in the name of run prevention. A team giving up over 6 runs/game at home, lately 9, could use all the run prevention possible.

Jeffrey Springs

Not to beat up on someone when they’re down, but some of the numbers on Springs are eye-popping. And by that I mean you want to take the nearest skewer and pop out your eyeballs to avoid seeing the next start.

Springs threw only 27 innings in June yet still managed to serve up 12 HRs. Yes, folks, that’s a HR every 2.5 innings on his way to a cool 10.00 ERA for the month.

Here’s what the Eyeball Scout has to say about it. Is it truly THAT hard for a pitcher to learn a 2-seam fastball, aka a sinker, that is mostly a different grip on a familiar pitch? I understand that “hey, add this new pitch” is popular with fans in theory and hard for pitchers in practice, but we’re not talking about an unusual pitch like a forkball or a knuckle-curve here.

The A’s know they play their home games in a launching pad ill suited to extreme fly ball pitchers. How, in 1.5 seasons, have they not been able to help Springs develop just a serviceable pitch that sinks, one he could bring out only at home if he wanted, just to keep balls from flying out of the park left and right?

If you’re wondering how dire the situation is, after last night Springs’ home ERA for the season stands at 6.79 with 16 HR in 54.1 IP. Overall, when it comes to serving up the long ball Springs is alone atop the American League, his 27 tied with Shota Imanaga.

In a game of adjustments, this old dog (33) needs to learn one new trick or he is simply not equipped to survive, let alone thrive. Adapt or perish, as they say.

Glimmer of hope alert: With Shohei Ohtani’s start pushed back to Friday, the A’s have a match up that is actually somewhat favorable on paper: JT Ginn against a “bullpen game”. Let’s hope July greets the A’s better than June sent them off.

Hector Rodriguez named International League Player of the Month

SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 19, 2026: Héctor Rodríguez #43 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a two-run single during the fourth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium on March 19, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

It is getting increasingly difficult for the Cincinnati Reds to continue to keep prospect Hector Rodriguez stashed down with AAA Louisville.

Hector struggled a bit during his first taste of AAA ball during the back half of 2025, hitting just .260/.304/.405 in 230 PA after ripping his way through the AA Southern League with the Chattanooga Lookouts. But during the 22 year old’s first full season with the Louisville Bats, he’s established himself as more than capable of crushing the pitching at that level.

For the full season, he’s hitting an impressive .283/.362/.527 (.889 OPS) with 18 homers through 354 PA. The left-handed hitter has pummelled right-handed pitching to the tune of .299/.389/.578 (.967 OPS) with 14 of those homers in just 247 PA, and his work of late has been even more thorough.

So thorough, even, that he was just named the International League’s Player of the Month for June, as the Bats relayed on Twitter.

The 1.014 OPS during the month featured 8 long balls, but over his most recent 32 games he’s been even more red hot. That span has seen him hit .319/.409/.689 (1.098 OPS) with 11 homers and 27 runs scored in just 137 PA, the kind of run through the AAA level that should, in theory, spark promotion discussion – especially when it’s coming from one of their top five prospects.

As the Cincinnati Reds themselves fall deeper and deeper into ‘seller’ mode ahead of the August 3rd trade deadline, a path to the majors may become much, much clearer for Hector. JJ Bleday and Noelvi Marte have stamped out pretty clear everyday roles in the outfield, but any potential moves of Eugenio Suarez or Nate Lowe would open up more time on the infield corners for Spencer Steer and, therefore, more space to rotate another bat through the DH spot on a regular basis. And if that series of events happens, Hector’s going to get his first shot at showing the performance at AAA was only the beginning.

Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Henry Bolte heating up, Giants catchers struggling

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers-Media Day
The next generation of MLB stars is headed to Philadelphia, with Jesús Made, Leo De Vries, Kade Anderson and Eli Willits among the headliners.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

Player
SB
CS
Nasim Nuñez
32
3
Bobby Witt Jr.
28
4
José Ramírez
24
2
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
24
4
Oneil Cruz
21
4
Pete Crow-Armstrong
20
5
Randy Arozarena
19
4
Fernando Tatis Jr.
19
9
José Caballero
19
7
Chandler Simpson
19
10
Jackson Merrill
18
1
Jakob Marsee
18
9

Nasim Nuñez just keeps doing it. He’s started 16 of the Nationals’ last 17 games and adds a great wrinkle of speed and defense to their strong lineup.

Jackson Merrill has surged up this leaderboard after only stealing one base all of last season.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Player
SB
CS
Victor Robles
3
0
Jackson Merrill
3
0
Henry Bolte
3
0
Jorge Mateo
2
0
Esteury Ruiz
2
0
Xavier Edwards
2
0
José Caballero
2
0
Pedro Ramírez
2
0
Caleb Durbin
2
0
Colton Cowser
2
0
Dylan Crews
2
0
10 Others Tied
2
                        -

Victor Robles is back for the Mariners in a part-time role and still finding plenty of opportunities to steal bases.

Henry Bolte is heating up, playing every day, swiping bags, and is now the Athletics' lead-off hitter.

Stolen Base Disappointments

Player
SB
CS
Chandler Simpson
19
10
Geraldo Perdomo
12
8
Zach Neto
11
7
Ceddanne Rafaela
10
6
Andy Pages
8
6
A.J. Ewing
8
6
Austin Martin
8
5
Daylen Lile
7
5
Garrett Mitchell
6
5
Gunnar Henderson
6
4
Maikel Garcia
5
3
Isaac Collins
4
4
Ozzie Albies
1
3
Jose Altuve
1
2
Willy Adames
1
2
Mookie Betts
1
2

Mets’ rookie A.J. Ewing has one of the fastest spring speeds in the league, but can’t quite get on track as a base stealer. He was just 1-for-4 this past week and it may be a skill that comes with some more experience.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

It was a relatively slow week for stolen bases across the league with no team allowing more than nine. The Giants led the way with those nine steals against them, and we’ve been somewhat waiting for them to climb this leaderboard.

They traded defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey away on May 9th in pursuit of more offensive fire power. Since then, their .790 OPS as a team is second-highest and the 51 stolen bases they’ve given up are tied for the second-most. So, mission accomplished!

Without Bailey, Daniel Susac had taken the lionshare of reps at catcher. He’s very solid defensively as a plus framer and plus thrower with a 29% caught stealing rate, which is a good bit better than league average.

Yet, he went on the injured list last week with a back strain. Now, Eric Haase and Drew Cavanaugh are splitting catcher duties.

Haase is a 33-year-old journeyman who’s never had a positive fielding run value at catcher via Baseball Savant and still gets reps in the outfield. Cavanaugh was recently promoted from Triple-A, has not caught a runner yet in four tries, and has a 45 fielding grade via FanGraphs.

It’s also worth noting that Robbie Ray and Logan Webb are two of the worst pitchers in baseball at holding runners on. Ray specifically allows some of the biggest jumps by base stealers among any left-handed pitcher in the league. Each let up a stolen base in their most recent start against the Braves and should be targeted when seeking stolen bases.

The Giants are scheduled to face the Rockies and Blue Jays over the next week with Ray and Webb each on tap for starts in Coors Field. Look for Jake McCarthy, Ezequiel Tovar, Willi Castro, or Andrés Giménez to supply cheap speed.

Hello Mr. Herbstreit

I’m sure many of you saw College Football Commentator Kirk Herbstreit’s nonsensical diatribe about the state of baseball a few days ago. If you didn’t, here it is.

He hit all the pressure points of the average old man yelling at a cloud. Like beckoning for the next Tony Gywnn, lamenting “launch angle” (which he put in question marks for some reason), and yearning for the return bunting and small ball tactics.

Yet, one of his foolish remarks stuck in my craw. We don’t even have to review Ted Williams promoting pulled fly balls and the concept of a launch angle generations ago or the fact that baseball’s ratings and attendance are remarkably high.

Herbstreit said, “Where did the athletic ability go…Base stealing-hell just good base running and SPEED?!?”

Is he watching the same game we are? He’s a self-documented Reds fan and he just missed Elly De La Cruz over the last three seasons? Does he not see the unbelievable athletic ability of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Byron Buxton, or Konnor Griffin? Or the fact that three of the four seasons with the most stolen bases since the mound was lowered in 1969 were the last three seasons.

It’s sad that these faulty talking points are not only regurgitated by the worst people you’ve ever met, but amplified by some of the largest figures in sports media who clearly don’t follow the game closely.

Maybe Kirk should be tuning in to this fantasy baseball steals report so he can keep better track of the base stealing he clearly cares so deeply for.

GameThread: Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees, 1:35 p.m.

Jun 30, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder Kerry Carpenter (30) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Detroit Tigers (37-49) vs. New York Yankees (48-37)

Time/Place: 1:35 p.m., Yankee Stadium
SB Nation Site: Pinstripe Alley
Media:
Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup: RHP Troy Melton (4-1, 2.39 ERA) vs. RHP Will Warren (7-3, 3.75 ERA)

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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 30: Gavin Sheets #30 of the San Diego Padres celebrates with teammates after hitting a three run home run in the eighth inning during the game between the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, June 30, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nick Loggarakis/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

San Diego Padres (43-41) at Chicago Cubs (48-38), July 1, 2026, 11:20 a.m. PST

Watch: Padres.TV

Location: Wrigley Field – Chicago, Ill.

Listen: 97.3 The Fan



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New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: Will Warren vs. Troy Melton

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 20: Will Warren #29 of the New York Yankees warms up before the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Yankee Stadium on June 20, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images

I’m going to take one small moment to complain about something. Because MLB has insisted on divvying up games between some one thousand different broadcasters, I was unable to watch and recap Sunday’s loss to the Red Sox. Me being in Canada, I was also tapped to recap the Fourth of July game to give my beloved fellow staff members some time off, and I almost always have a regular recap on Sundays. All that is to say that while the Yankees are playing their worst baseball possible, I have four games in six days that I am contractually obligated to give analysis on.

Ergo, Yankees, for me, please give me more to discuss than yesterday. All that mattered in Tuesday’s loss was Cam Schlittler giving up four home runs. I am hopeful that Will Warren does not do that himself, and while getting four hits for the first time in a week was a step forward, I hope the lineup manages to triple that.

Warren has hit a bit of a rough patch. His outing last weekend against the Red Sox was bad on its face, five earned runs allowed and not a single strikeout in 5.2 innings pitched. In his last four starts though, he’s managed a 5.49 ERA and while he’s done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard, a 4.2 percent K-BB%—for my money the single best pitching stat—terrifies me. With so many injuries, the Yankee lineup was bound to take a step back, and the rotation needs to be better in games the team is going to have to scratch and claw to score in. Warren did miss the Tigers series last week so it’ll be his first time seeing this squad in 2026.

Troy Melton goes for Detroit, having a very good season from a pure run prevention standpoint, but would merit plenty of articles in 2013 exposing the difference between ERA and FIP. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, to be sure, but he does not strike many men out and gives up a lot of fly balls. It’s Yankee Stadium, where 92-mph exit velo flyouts can turn into home runs, so hopefully that spells good news for the Yankees.

I guess you’d call this the B- lineup, due in part to a spat of food poisoning going around the clubhouse (no joke). Cody Bellinger is back in left field and batting third, but Austin Wells is batting seventh and even with the illnesses afoot, that seems far too high. We’re also trying an experiment with José Caballero in center field. Whatever happens today, it should at least be interesting.

How to watch

Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

First pitch: 1:35 pm ET

TV broadcast: YES, Detroit SportsNet

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | WXYT 97.1 FM (DET)

Streaming: Gotham Sports App, MLB.TV (out-of-market only)

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Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Game Thread

Boston, MA - June 30: Washington Nationals manager and former Boston College baseball player Blake Butera watches from the dugout in the second inning. The Boston Red Sox played the Washington Nationals at Fenway Park on June 30, 2026. (Photo by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images

This game could be a little spicier than your average Wednesday get away day game. After the brawl last night, the temperature is hot in this series. After the Red Sox took the first game, the Nats struck back thanks to a gem from Cade Cavalli. Now the teams do battle one last time.

Interestingly, CJ Abrams is getting the day off in this one. That means Nasim Nunez will play short and Jorbit Vivas will play third. Daylen Lile will be the DH in this contest, meaning James Wood is in left, Jacob Young is in center and Dylan Crews in right. Andres Chaparro is preferred at first base, but Luis Garcia Jr. will be looming on the bench. Brad Lord will be the opener for Andrew Alvarez.

Willson Contreras has had quite the series, and since no punishments have been dished out yet, he will be playing first base and hitting cleanup. Nate Eaton, Andruw Monasterio and Connor Wong will all get their first starts of the series. Payton Tolle is a massive lefty with a nasty heater and he will be getting the ball this afternoon.

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Game Info:

Stadium: Fenway Park

Time: 1:35 PM EST

TV: Nationals.TV

Radio: 106.7 The Fan

There is a powder keg of emotion leading up to this one. Hopefully everyone is on their best behavior and will let the playing do the talking. This is also a key rubber match for both teams. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats!

RANGERS AT GUARDIANS: Cantillo vs. Gore, discussion

CLEVELAND, OHIO - JUNE 28: Cooper Ingle #30, Steven Kwan #38 and David Fry #6 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrate the team's 6-5 win over the Seattle Mariners at Progressive Field on June 28, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Yay, another baseball game

Here’s the Guardians lineup:

Here’s the Rangers lineup:

Let’s go, Guardians!