Chicago Cubs news and notes — PCA, Shaw, Suzuki

Tom Ricketts is making World Series noises, which ring like endorsing a manager before changing faces. There’s a real spring game tomorrow. Kris Bryant is having a hard time with his chronic pain condition.

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Food For Thought:

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Tanner Franklin is your #12 St. Louis Cardinals prospect

HOOVER, AL - MAY 24: Tennessee pitcher Tanner Franklin (50) winds up for a pitch during the SEC Baseball Tournament Semifinals game between Tennessee Volunteers and Vanderbilt Commodores on May 24, 2025, at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium in Hoover, Alabama. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It’s funny that Tanner Franklin ended up at 12, because that’s about where I thought he’d end up when we started this, and yet it took him a rather long time to actually be added to the voting because he lost two initial votes to players who still haven’t been selected to the top 20. That’s a little odd, and tells me there are certain players where the head-to-head against individual guys may not exactly tell me about his chances to be added to the top 20. Franklin must just be a unique enough pitcher that normal voting rules don’t seem to apply. The current top 20 stands at:

  1. JJ Wetherholt
  2. Liam Doyle
  3. Rainiel Rodriguez
  4. Quinn Mathews
  5. Jurrangelo Cjintje
  6. Joshua Baez
  7. Leonardo Bernal
  8. Jimmy Crooks
  9. Brandon Clarke
  10. Tink Hence
  11. Tekoah Roby
  12. Tanner Franklin

Comparable Player Poll

We’re going to stick to the same theme as yesterday’s polls and run three outfield prospects together and see which player ends up on top. It’s an easy way to turn three potential names that I am considering adding and making it just one name. Makes my job easier later.

Won-Bin Cho has seen some ups and some downs in his short pro career. Things started well enough. He hit reasonably well with a great approach in both the complex league and Low A. He’s had a lot more trouble at High A. He whiffed like crazy and had no power in his first attempt. In his second attempt, his approach was much better, but the results weren’t quite there until a very strong finish to the season. He will either repeat High A with the intention of a quick promotion so long as results are there or he’ll start the year in AA. He’ll be 22.

Colton Ledbetter was the third piece of the Brendan Donovan return. Drafted 55th overall in 2023, Ledbetter played well enough in that draft season at Low A to start his first full pro season in High A. He played there well too, albeit with some strikeout issues. With his promotion to AA, he may have made an emphasis on cutting down his K rate, which he did, but he did see a noticeable drop in power while still managing an above average hitting line. He will be 24 and probably in AAA.

Zach Levenson was drafted in the 5th round of the 2023 draft. While he did well enough in his initial debut season at Low A, he was not particularly impressive in his first attempt at High A. It was almost an average line, but he repeated High A in 2025. This time, he was quite good thanks primarily to an excellent K/BB ratio. He finished the season in AA with a strong showing in 26 games. He will be 24 and probably repeat AA.

VOTE HERE

New Add

There are obviously still prospects who could arguably be on the poll, but I think we’re in a good place where there’s nobody missing that I feel is kind of egregious. That means I think it’s okay to re-add Ryan Mitchell back to the voting. I think he’s going to be on the voting for good and considering everyone on the current list got at least 9 votes, I feel like there’s no real contenders left who could get removed. Never say never, but I probably won’t have to go to that well again just because honestly there won’t be much time to do it.

Jesus Baez, IF – 21

Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+

Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding

The biggest weakness, near as I can tell, is that Baez is immature. He is also about to be 21-years-old. I’ll be very interesting to see how Baez pans out specifically because I kind of want to know how much weight to put on when a scout like Keith Law essentially goes after his character. It’s one sample, so I shouldn’t use his example for all prospects like him but nonetheless I really am not sure how to handle it.

Nathan Church, OF – 25

Stats (AA): 129 PAs, .336/.380/.563, 6.2 BB%, 7.8 K%, .227 ISO, .327 BABIP, 157 wRC+, 136 DRC+

AAA: 242 PAs, .335/.400/.521, 9.9 BB%, 10.3 K%, .186 ISO, .338 BABIP 144 wRC+, 132 DRC+

MLB: 65 PAs, .179/.254/.250, 4.6 BB%, 27.7 K%, .071 ISO, .237 BABIP, 46 wRC+, 78 DRC+

Scouting: 55/55 Hit, 35/35 Game Power, 40/40 Raw Power, 55/55 Speed, 45/45 Field

I know that scouts can’t constantly update their numbers, but I feel like you are clearly out of date if you’re giving Nathan Church a 45 fielding grade. You don’t want to overrate the small sample of fielding numbers that Church currently has, but I will say when a player posts an 84 percentile sprint speed, has a 92 percentile arm speed, and posts a fairly high OAA, we can probably write off him being a below average fielder. That doesn’t feel like asking much. I’m not convinced he’s as good as his numbers were, mind you, but I am convinced he’s an above average fielder at the least.

Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19

Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA/2.41 FIP/3.29 xFIP

Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/2.50 FIP/3.14 xFIP

Scouting: 40/45 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 30/50 Change, 35/50 Command

Acquired in the trade for Willson Contreras, Fajardo is an unusual 19-year-old, because he’s already built up his innings to throw 100 or so innings for the 2026 season. He’s also probably going to be in High A and that is a fairly rare group. His next step is maintaining what he’s been doing, because though he’s a hitter, we saw an example of a very young player struggling to get past High A in Won-Bin Cho these past two seasons. Wouldn’t be totally shocking if he had an adjustment period.

Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA

Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command

I’m happy that the voting for Henderson seems to have been unaffected by the recent news of him getting shut down for the moment from throwing. I think that’s the right call. Even if he does end up missing a significant amount of time, it’ll feel more like a hiccup than if say, Tink Hence got injured again. It’s not an injury prone guy who can’t stay healthy, but someone going through the typical injury that just about every starting pitcher seems to face at some point.

Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP

Didn’t pitch

Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command

Good news about Hjerpe: he had Tommy John surgery in April of last season. That is not a statement that is usually said, but basically it means Hjerpe’s Tommy John recovery should put him in line to throw half a season or so of innings. A very reasonable timeframe of returning in fact would have him in line to throw his career high in professional innings. That’s the bad news about Hjerpe: he hasn’t given us a lot of faith in staying healthy.

Brycen Mautz, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%. 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/3.58 FIP/3.20 xFIP/4.54 DRA

Scouting: 45/45 Fastball, 55/55 Slider, 45/50 Curve, 30/35 Change, 50/55 Command

Mautz has reasonably good scouting, but I’ve always kind of felt like he was almost a scouts versus stats prospect where if scouts were more convinced he would start for sure, then his stats would be good enough to become a legit prospect. What I’m saying is that his stats are strong. He struck out guys, didn’t walk much, got enough groundballs. If he has that exact same line in AAA, he’s an MLB caliber starter I would think.

Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF

I do not have stats to share with you – I’m sure I can find high school stats, but they aren’t a lot of use on this kind of list. It doesn’t appear Fangraphs has given him scouting grades, I can’t find MLB Pipeline (and I don’t like how they give grades anyway, too high generally). I have access to Baseball Prospectus’ top 20, and while they don’t give Mitchell a scouting grade, I thought just sharing their blurb would suffice:

“Mitchell, a toolsy overslot second-rounder, didn’t play after the draft. For much of his high school career, he would rotate so early that he was more or less standing up when making contact, but his swing became one of the most fun to watch in the class. He dips down a bit and explodes from the lower half. There is some risk he won’t be able to get around against higher velocity fastballs, but his contact rates on the circuit were adequate, and there’s enough athleticism, present bat speed, and physical projection to expect some power. Defensively, he has good actions but could be forced to second base in pro ball. There aren’t any elite tools here, but he presents a pretty well-rounded infield profile and had an arrow up coming into the draft.”

Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B

Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+

High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+

It feels weird that a player as young as Ortiz playing at two separate levels who dominated both levels was not considered a good enough prospect to give an actual scouting report. I feel like the fact that I’m not sharing any scouting numbers with you makes him harder to grade. He has some swing-and-miss and those lines are uncomfortably BABIP-driven, but he was also 20 at High A who had a 168 wRC+.

Yairo Padilla, 19 – SS

Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283/.396/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+

Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 40/60 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 30/40 Field

On the flipside of the scouts versus stats is Padilla on the scouting side. Which is slightly misleading, because as you can see, he does actually have good stats. It’s not necessarily a line that would stand out to me, but an 18-year-old shortstop prospect with a 119 wRC+ in rookie leagues would most likely be a prospect in nearly all outcomes. But clearly there is more power expected specifically and that’s where the scouting part of it comes more into play.

Tai Peete, OF – 20

Stats (High A): 529 PAs, .217/.288/.404, 8.7 BB%, 30.6 K%, .187 ISO, .282 BABIP, 79 wRC+, 79 DRC+

Scouting: 20/30 Hit, 30/50 Game Power, 50/60 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 45/55 Fielding

And here we have your classic “if only he could make contact a little bit more” prospect. One quick fix and he’s a super prospect. That fix might be the most difficult thing to fix though. Even with his swing-and-miss stuff, he still had 19 homers in 125 games and had a .189 ISO as a 19-year-old playing in High A. That is not that common. Unfortunately, that pesky contact tool. You’ll see that speed and he did steal 25 bases, although he also got caught an unacceptable 11 times. The year before he stole 45 bases and got 6 times. Not really sure why he was such a worse base stealer, but there is base stealing potential in his future.

VOTE HERE

The White Sox Spring Training broadcast schedule is here

The most beautiful sight. Baseball is back in Glendale. | Brandon Sloter/Getty Images

It’s that time of year again. The wind off the lake is still occasionally biting, the potholes on 35th Street are reaching record depths, and yet, the first sign of life is finally here. The White Sox have dropped their Spring Training broadcast schedule, and for those of us who have spent the winter itching for baseball again, it’s the lifeline we’ve been waiting for.


Glendale is calling. And while we know better than to put too much stock in Cactus League box scores, there’s no denying the pull of seeing the South Side logo back on a TV screen.

The action kicks off with a bang, or at least a very loud neighborhood dispute, on February 20 at 2:05 p.m. CT against the Cubs. Even though it’s a meaningless exhibition, beating the North Siders is always a healthy way to start the year.

The first part of the schedule is heavy on the home turf at Camelback Ranch, with matchups against the A’s, Brewers, and Rangers all slated for late February. If you’re looking for an early glimpse at the new-look rotation or young prospects, mark these dates down.

  • The Crosstown Reprise: After the opener, we get another look at the Cubs on March 1.
  • The Night Caps: If you prefer your baseball under the lights (or at least as the sun sets over the desert), keep an eye on March 19 for a double-header of sorts against the Diamondbacks and Padres, followed by a 5:30 p.m CT start against the Dodgers on March 21, which is the Spring Breakout game.
  • The Finale: The broadcast slate wraps up on March 22 against the Mariners. By then, we should have a much clearer picture of who’s heading north to Chicago and who’s packing for the affiliates.

Most of these games will be carried by ESPN 1000 and CHSN, with a few webcast options sprinkled in for the true diehards who need to hear the crack of the bat while they’re “working” from home. Additionally, both of the Cubs matchups will be broadcast on the Marquee Sports Network.


Whether you’re watching to scout the next generation or just to see some green grass and sunshine while huddled over a space heater in Bridgeport, baseball is officially back. Let’s see what this squad has in store for us.

Kansas City Royals news: Baseball will be played tomorrow!

Feb 24, 2023; Surprise, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Maikel Garcia (11) gets ready in the dugout prior to the spring training game against the Texas Rangers in Surprise, AZ. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Jaylon Thompson wrote about the first full-squad workout on Monday.

The Royals expect most of the spring competition to be reserve roles. The starting lineup is pretty much set with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez leading the way.

“I mean, without naming names, it’s very obvious who some of the everyday guys are,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo said. “The competition is going to be how we fill out the last, you know, I’ll say 10 through 13. You know, we have some guys that have more experience than others, but it’ll play out in spring training. And I think our guys are hungry. I think they understand what the competition is like. They want to go out and win.”

Anne Rogers writes about the team testing out the new ABS challenge system.

“We are going to talk about that a little bit to see who’s going to challenge,” catcher Salvador Perez said Saturday. “Early in the game, if we lose a challenge, we may need it later in the game. It’s like, ‘Should we wait?’ Even if the umpire makes a little mistake, you have to be 100% right to challenge in the first three innings. That’s kind of what I think. But I have to wait for Skip [manager Matt Quatraro] and see what Bobby [Witt Jr.], Vinnie and Maikel [Garcia] think about that.”

Stephen Kolek will start the Cactus League opener on Friday against the Rangers.

Union reps came to Royals camp following the resignation of head Tony Clark.

“It was a good meeting,” said John Schreiber, who is the Royals’ player representative. “A lot of questions from guys and a lot of positive feedback. So feeling good about where we are right now. Obviously, it’s a little bit of a disappointment. A little bit of a challenge with what came out yesterday and all that stuff. But, you know, the unity and strength we have from this union from the players is what it’s about.”

David Schoenfield at ESPN gives the Royals a “C” for their offseason.

Kansas City outfielders hit a miserable .225/.285/.348 last season, which isn’t going to work if the Royals want to return to the postseason. They acquired Collins from the Brewers after he hit .263/.368/.411 and finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting, but he was a 27-year-old rookie, so there isn’t any growth potential there — more likely some regression. Still, if he can get on base at a reasonable clip, he’ll give the Royals the leadoff hitter they lacked a season ago. Thomas hasn’t been good since 2023, so it’s unclear why the Royals would give him $5.25 million coming off a season in which he hit .160. Call it a ho-hum offseason that gets a boost with the underrated Maikel Garcia signing an extension that runs through 2031.

Philip Ruo at Royals Keep wonders who will lead off for the Royals in 2026.

Dan Szymborski has Carter Jensen at #15 and Blake Mitchell at #96 in his ZIPS top prospects.

The Astros sign former Royals infielder CJ Alexander to a minor league deal.

The Braves will be without pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep for the first two months.

The Mariners sign catcher Mitch Garver to a minor league deal.

Ten positional battles in MLB camps to be decided in spring training.

The Astros have interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto.

The key player for each World Baseball Classic team.

Bruce Meyer is named Executive Director of the MLBPA.

Aaron Judge wants to improve his baserunning.

Why the Orioles may not want to trade Coby Mayo or Ryan Mountcastle.

The Mets will never have a team captain under owner Steve Cohen.

How ten teams can overcome their playoff odds.

The Chiefs restructure Patrick Mahomes’ contract to free up more cap space.

The winners and losers from the first week of the Winter Olympics.

Antarctica has a gravity hole.

Cocaine is having a comeback.

The first worldwide Tic Tac Toe championship will be at SXSW.

Your song of the day is Built to Spill with The Plan.

Guardians News and Notes – Spring Training Interviews

CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 02: Logan Allen #26 of the Cleveland Guardians reacts to the camera prior to Game Three of the American League Wild Card Series between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Thursday, October 2, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Grace Hoppel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Now that Spring Training is getting into full swing, various interviews are popping up ahead of Saturday’s games. Foul Territory posted many interviews from Guardians camp. The full, two-hour video is available on YouTube.

GM Mike Chernoff talked Travis Bazanna timetable, off season signings (and the lack thereof), and signing José. Players Gavin Williams, Slade Cecconi, Hunter Gaddis, and Cade Smith also made appearances.

Mason Horodyski of Channel 5 News also had a few interviews posted on his Twitter page. Gavin Williams spoke on his bond with Carl Willis. Slade Cecconi talked his mystic prediction powers and the power of friendship. Parker Messick is toying with a cutter. Hunter Gaddis gave his thoughts on how the new gaggle of bullpen pitchers are fitting in.

It was already announced the Logan T. Allen and Joey Cantillo will be getting the starts on Saturday. LTA will start at home against the Reds and Cantillo on the road against the Brewers.

As of yesterday, it is official perpetual baseball season:

With Ranger Suárez and Sonny Gray, do the Red Sox have an elite rotation?

FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 11: Ranger Suárez #55 of the Boston Red Sox speaks to the media during a workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 11, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

It’s pitching preview time, ladies and gentlemen. Over the next several days, I’ll be writing 10,000 words or so about everyone you might see pitching for the Red Sox to start the season. I’ve put the team’s starting options into tiers because that’s how my brain works. Don’t think of them as rankings, but rather buckets based on some similarities I see.

Yesterday we started with a look at Garrett Crochet, one of the best pitchers in baseball. Today we move on to..


Tier Two: Been Around The Block

This next tier consists of Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray, the two guys who are getting paid a lot of money to be in the Red Sox rotation. Suarez is entering his eighth season, while Gray is entering his 14th. While labeling guys as “a decent two” or “a three for a playoff team” is a silly endeavor in my opinion, these guys will likely start on the second and third day of the season.

Ranger Suárez

2025 in a sentence: Suarez started the season on the IL, but was rock solid once he got back on the field in May.

Ranger Suarez has been remarkably consistent over the past four seasons. He’s averaging 26 starts, 147 innings, and a 3.59 ERA over that span. 2026 will be his first season with a team not named the Philadelphia Phillies, but you can expect more of the same from Suarez.

For Suarez, it’s all about command. He’s going to be really tough on lefties and won’t see many of them as a result. He pounds the inside part of the plate with sinkers and four-seamers, before turning to his curveball and slider out of the zone to put hitters away. The curveball is particularly effective at getting hitters to expand the zone; the chase rate on the pitch over the last three seasons is nearly 50%. He’ll also mix in his changeup with two strikes, though the Red Sox have generally avoided same-handed changeups. It’s been incredibly effective in small samples, though, so they might allow him to keep that arrow in his quiver.

On the other side, it’s a much more even mix, with each of his five pitches accounting for 15% and 25% of his offerings. His sinker still leads the way and gets early strikes, but the contact against it from righties is better than lefties, while his cutter is a reliable strike-getter early in at-bats as well and avoids hard contact. A kind of fun, or at least fun to me, testament to his command is that only two non-four-seam pitches generated a higher percentage of foul balls than Suarez’s cutter (27.7%). Because he doesn’t use the pitch in two-strike counts very often, those are almost entirely productive pitches.

While Suarez will throw any pitch in any count, he turns to his changeup and curveball most often as his strikeout pitches against righties. The changeup is incredibly effective with a two-strike chase rate of 43%. The curveball isn’t as devastating, but he avoids mistakes with it and can drop it in the zone for free strikes. He uses the four-seam at the top of the zone as well, and it’s outperformed what one might expect given the shape over the past three seasons, with putaway rates over 20% thanks to impeccable command.

Suarez has his approach, and when he executes, he’s as good as anyone. He’s slated to pitch in the World Baseball Classic for Venezuela, which will give us a good look at any tweaks he made to his arsenal over the offseason. It’d be nice to see him gain a tick or two of velocity as well. He was at about 93 mph just two years ago, but a sudden drop has him sitting closer to 90 mph today. Suarez is your favorite pitcher’s favorite pitcher and has shown the ability to survive without premium velocity. I’d expect more of the same from him in 2026.

More Suarez: How new Red Sox pitcher Ranger Suárez finesses his way through a lineup

Sonny Gray

2025 in a sentence: Gray’s season line was marred by a number of blow-up outings, but the underlying numbers paint a better picture.

Sonny Gray had five games with six or more earned runs allowed last season. I hate excluding games from a line because they all count, but I feel comfortable calling that a fluke. His 26.7% strikeout rate was among the best in baseball, as was his 5% walk rate.

Gray had reverse splits in 2025, but is roughly platoon-neutral for his career. He used six different pitches in 2025, with significant differences against each side of the plate. Early in at-bats, righties primarily saw sinkers and cutters, with occasional curveballs dropped in for called strikes. With two strikes, he went to his sweeper. Gray called himself one of the best spinners in the league, and his sweeper supports that. Against righties, nearly one in every four pitches resulted in a whiff. They also swung at over 50% of the sweepers he threw out of the zone. He pairs it with a backdoor sinker that freezes hitters as they give up on the pitch, expecting it to spin off the plate.

Against lefties, Gray used more four-seam fastballs and curveballs early in counts. Each pitch had a strike rate over 65%, but the ideal contact rate against each was on the high side, though opponents hit the ball on the ground frequently. A changeup accounted for 15% of his pitches to lefties, primarily early in at-bats, but a 55% strike rate and 43% ideal contact rate make it a candidate to be replaced by something else. His cutter and sinker each earned strikes at a high rate in a small sample, but were also hit hard. With two strikes, his sweeper was again the star, getting whiffs on 26% of pitches, as well as a huge chase rate (48.7%). The contact quality from lefties is somewhat of a concern, but his ability to miss bats compensates for it.

I mentioned blow-up outings, and home runs were the culprit for many of them. He allowed 25 on the season, though his 22.7% home run per fly ball rate should come down closer to league average. Overall, for Gray, I’d expect his splits to flip, with righties having a more difficult time than lefties, based on his ability to pitch to the glove side. RedSoxStats on Twitter pointed out that over the last two seasons, most of his hard contact allowed has come to right center field, where the Red Sox have two Gold Glove outfielders stationed on a nightly basis.

Gray isn’t the flashiest pitcher in the rotation, but he’s a veteran who will mix his pitches, sequence, and compete each time he takes the mound.

More Gray: Meet the New Guy: Sonny Gray

Which spring training storyline will age poorly?

Oct 3, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, Canada; New York Yankees pitcher Luke Weaver (30) throws the ball during workouts at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images


This post is part of a series of daily questions that we’ll ask the community here at Amazin’ Avenue throughout the month of February. We hope you find the questions engaging and that our prompts can spark some fun conversations in the comments. We’ll see you there and plan to have staff chiming in, too.

Which spring training storyline will age poorly?

Stats of note after one week of Ole Miss baseball

Jun 2, 2025; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels relief pitcher Hunter Elliott (26) pitches during the ninth inning against the Murray State Racers. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

As the adage about the baseball’s simplicity goes, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball, you win all your games, and you go undefeated.

The 2026 Ole Miss baseball team did most of those things in their wins over Nevada (3), Arkansas State (1), and Jackson State (1), which was a fine start to the season. Obviously, the level of competition is not what it will be during their trip to Houston at the end of this month and once they get to March, but ain’t nothing wrong with any level of TCB in the early non-conference slate.

So let’s look at some of the key stats produced in the first week, keeping in mind some are not sustainable and at least one needs to get fixed ASAP or it will cost them meaningful games.

Run Differential

Ole Miss is sitting at a cool +39 (54-15) , with two of their wins achieving a 7-inning run rule. Of note, the Rebels trailed Arkansas State 6-4 after 5 innings and rallied to win 7-6, and their lowest run output was 5 runs in the second game against Nevada.

It’s encouraging to not see a grotesque 3 runs or under game, an offense that can score when they’re not at their best, and a pitching staff that isn’t bleeding out late in games.

At the Plate

These are acceptable (ACCEPTABLE) team numbers:

  • .488 on-base percentage
  • .588 slugging percentage
  • 10 dingers*
  • 39 walks to 37 strikeouts
  • 19 total extra-base hits

*4 came against Jackson State, which means 6 in the other 4 games.

They get on base and smash the baseball. It’s also encouraging to see more walks than strikeouts, which we would love to see hold steady as the season goes on.

Most importantly, Tristan Bissetta decided his home run celebration will involve giving the Italian pinched fingers gesture to the student section.

On the Mound

Much like the hitting, Ole Miss’ pitching as been on point:

  • 1.15 WHIP
  • 5.5 to 1 strikeout-to-walk ratio
  • 9 earned runs*
  • 2 dingers allowed
  • 11 total extra-base hits

*More on this in a minute!

Like the hitters, they’ve dominated their opponents, and we love to see only 10 total walks. Not making it easy for opposing offenses helps win games while also not driving everyone insane.

In the Field

Granted, I don’t remember specifics, but I’m certain the Joker’s origin story involved him rooting for a college baseball team incapable of doing basic things correctly. Things like fielding a ball cleanly, throwing the ball into a teammate’s glove, and catching a ball thrown to you.

Ole Miss has 9 errors through 5 games. If there is a positive, 5 of those came against Arkansas State, which means 4 errors total in the other 4 games. Still not great!

Last year’s team made 68 errors in 64 games and had a team fielding percentage of .970. This year’s team has a fielding percentage of .949 and is on pace for 115 errors in 64 games

Look, none of us want to become the Joker, but that’s where we’re headed if Ole Miss doesn’t rise to an average fielding team. I don’t know how much a team can transform its fielding incompetence within a season, but if this team wants to have a shot at Omaha, they have to figure out a way to limit the nonsense.

Next Up

  • vs. Missouri State (Friday)
  • vs. Missouri State (Saturday)
  • vs. Missouri State (Sunday)

No word if Bobby Petrino will be on hand to support his former employer.

Phillies News: Jesús Luzardo, Justin Crawford, MLBPA

PARKLAND, FL - JANUARY 24: Jesús Luzardo instructs participants during youth baseball clinic at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School on Saturday, January 24, 2026 in Parkland, Florida. (Photo by Lucas Casel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The bats are cracking. The gloves are popping. The fans are arguing over uniforms. Brandon Marsh’s hair is wet. Baseball has arrived.

On to the links.

Phillies news:

MLB news:

Waiting on a Jordan Westburg update with exhibitions starting tomorrow

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 25: Jordan Westburg #11 of the Baltimore Orioles runs back to dug out between innings during a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at the Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 25, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Hello, friends.

There are now 35 days remaining until Orioles Opening Day. That’s just five weeks away. Something vaguely resembling an Orioles game will be available on your television or other streaming device tomorrow with the opening of the Grapefruit League schedule.

This also means that today is the last day that there will just be general spring workouts that are not in some way oriented towards a game. For all of the focus on spring training being a time to iron out fundamentals and what not, there’s really only a handful of days after the full squad has reported before games start up and it becomes less about drills and more about game readiness.

The only thing that can come from these early days is bad news, probably news of the injury variety. I’m still looking to get something more specific about what’s going on with Jordan Westburg’s sore oblique. Mike Elias’s “surprise offseason injury” update from the start of camp implied that Westburg would miss only the first few exhibition games and that’s it, but Westburg’s self-assessment a couple of days later was vague and not supportive of that initial claim, with not even an aspirational timeline to when he might return.

My rule about baseball injury news is that vague is frequently eventually bad news that nobody wants to say right now. I hope that doesn’t prove to be the case with Westburg’s oblique as well. Specific news can also be bad, of course. You just know how specifically bad it is rather than having to wonder. Again, the games start tomorrow. I think they should have offered a firm date for his first game by now, and until they do that I’ll be at least a little bit concerned that they haven’t said one because there isn’t one.

Just last spring we saw Gunnar Henderson’s sore oblique drag out almost through the whole of spring training, with the Orioles perpetually acting like Henderson could be back in two or three more days. That didn’t do anybody any favors, especially when they rushed him back into action at the tail end of the recovery. If that is how it goes with Westburg, I hope they’ve learned their lesson. But I also hope that’s not how it goes with Westburg.

Orioles stuff you might have missed

Adam Jones arrives as guest coach, more from day 8 of Orioles camp (School of Roch)
Also includes Blaze Alexander hitting a home run off of Cade Povich, which probably shouldn’t be taken as a sign to get hype about Alexander. Good for him, though.

Building a football team out of all of the ‘really large humans’ at Orioles camp (Orioles.com)
There are a lot of possible linebackers around here, apparently.

Jeremiah Jackson on making an impression with Orioles: ‘Every day is a job interview’ (Baltimore Baseball)
Although he made a nice impression last year, it does seem like Jackson is going to have to fight for a roster spot even after the Jackson Holliday injury, and possibly even also if Westburg’s situation develops worse than they’ve revealed so far. I just don’t know if the Orioles will trust him to play an infield position.

OOPSY 2026 top 100 prospects (FanGraphs)
I’m pretty much only posting this because my guy Aron Estrada checks in at #31 on the top 100. Obviously, that makes this the best top 100 prospect list that anyone has put out yet this year.

Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries

Nothing of particular note is recorded for this day in Orioles history. That probably won’t change this year unless there’s some bad news.

Of all the players to ever play for the Orioles, not a single one was born on this day.

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! You may not have any Orioles birthday buddies for today, but you do have these: astronomer Nicolaus Copernicus (1473), author Carson McCullers (1917), musician Smokey Robinson (1940), actor and movie maker Benicio del Toro (1967), singer-songwriter Chappell Roan (1998), and actress Millie Bobby Brown (2004).

On this day in history…

In 1674, the English and Dutch signed the Treaty of Westminster, which ended the Third Anglo-Dutch War. Relevant to today’s United States, the treaty transferred ownership of the Dutch colony of New Amsterdam to England, which renamed the area to New York.

In 1847, rescuers reached the stranded Donner Party in a pass in modern-day California. The group is now infamous for its survivors resorting to cannibalism to survive.

In 1942, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 9066, which led to the internment of Japanese Americans into camps for the duration of World War II.

A random Orioles trivia question

I received a random book of Orioles trivia for Christmas. Each time it’s my turn in this space, I’ll post a question from the book until I either run out of questions or forget. The book has multiple choice answers, but that would be too easy for everyone here. Here’s today’s question:

Who slugged 31 home runs in 2002 to lead the Orioles that season?

The answer to Sunday’s question about the all-time Orioles triples leader, which stumped many who guessed, is Brooks Robinson. If you are guessing early in the day, please be considerate and place your answer behind spoiler text so that people arriving later can still have a fresh opportunity to guess.

**

And that’s the way it is in Birdland on February 19. Have a safe Thursday.

What was the biggest AL East move from this offseason?

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 15: Trent Grisham #12 and Cody Bellinger #35 of the New York Yankees celebrate the win over the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium on April 15, 2025 in the Bronx borough of New York City. All players are wearing the number 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. The New York Yankees defeated the Kansas City Royals 4-2. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The AL East looks like the best division in baseball headed into 2026, and that’s thanks in no small part to the arms race that took place over the winter between the division’s five clubs. The Blue Jays spent big money after winning the AL pennant, the Red Sox made major moves in free agency and the trade market, and even the Orioles made splashes, swinging deals for pitching and signing Pete Alonso to a monster deal (the Rays, well, remain the Rays).

The Yankees, for as much guff as they’ve taken for their Run it Back strategy, had a somewhat active winter, even if most of their activity meant retaining players that were on the 2025 roster. All the bustle of the offseason got me wondering: of all the players acquired by AL East teams over the offseason, which one will be the best in 2026?

For the purpose of this exercise, any player that wasn’t on an AL East team’s roster once the World Series ended counts as an acquisition, which means that Cody Bellinger counts as a signing for the Yankees even though he was on the team in 2025, as does Shane Bieber for the Blue Jays, for example.

It could be Dylan Cease, who inked a seven-year deal with Toronto, or one of the Blue Jays’ other signings, such as Cody Ponce or Kazuma Okamoto. It could be any of Boston’s trade acquisitions, from Sonny Gray to Willson Contreras, or even Caleb Durbin, not to mention free-agent starter Ranger Suárez. The O’s added Alonso, as well as hard-thrower Shane Baz, outfielder Taylor Ward, and veteran Chris Bassitt. The Yankees, for their part, re-signed Bellinger and Trent Grisham, and added talented left-hander Ryan Weathers, among others. Will one of them be the best player that came on this offseason?

Another way to phrase this question: which of the players signed or traded in the division will prove to be most significant in 2026? Let us know what you think in the comments below.


This morning, Josh will discuss the Anthony Volpe Situation, and Maximo will celebrate catcher Chris Stewart as part of our Yankee Birthday series. Also, Peter previews Luis Gil’s 2026 campaign, and for the last post of our Yankees Free Agency series, Matt writes up the Max Fried signing, the most recent mega contract the Yankees have handed out.

Which Twin are you most excited to see in Spring Training games?

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 20: Luke Keaschall #15 of the Minnesota Twins hits a double against the Cleveland Guardians in the second inning of the game at Target Field on September 20, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Spring training games start this weekend which means we’re one step closer to baseball being back! As always, regular players will be slowly ramped up (pitchers especially), meaning it will be a few weeks before we see a game that looks more like a regular season game, but we’ll also get plenty of chances to see players get new opportunities in the meantime.

One the one hand, it’s always nice to see the stars like Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan back in action (though no longer Pablo Lopez. Get better soon, bud). On the other, Spring Training is also a great chance for fans to get a sample of top prospects. 

The Twins have four of their five top prospects (Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Connor Prielipp) in big league camp. With the WBC picking up later this Spring, all four of those players should get some extended run against MLB competition when Buxton, Ryan, Taj Bradley, and others leave to compete for their home countries. 

I’m also very excited to see younger regulars like Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis. A lot of the Twins’ success or failure will depend specifically on the offensive development of those two players. Spring Training stats are meaningless, but I want to see if either player has finally progressed to the point that they can be more patient and selective on the pitches they attack. 

Who are you most excited to see this Spring? 

Pirates 2026 season previews: Infield

BRADENTON, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 18: Ryan O'Hearn #29 of the Pittsburgh Pirates poses for a portrait during the 2026 Pittsburgh Pirates Photo Day at LECOM Park on February 18, 2026 in Bradenton, Florida. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Pittsburgh Pirates core of infielders has some exciting pop but could be considered a unit that is incomplete overall.

For the last couple of seasons, the Pirates have struggled to find an everyday first baseman. The acquisition for Spencer Horwitz in December of 2024 was met with some critical feedback, as the Pirates gave up pitcher Luis Ortiz in the trade for a player who was going to require wrist surgery and not be ready for the beginning of the season. Although he still has a lot to prove, the Pirates have already won the Horwtiz trade. Ortiz had great potential but may never play again after being indicted for rigging pitches, and Horwitz performed well as the Buccos first baseman in 2025 once he was cleared medically to play.

Ryan O’Hearn figures to have a prominent role at first as well, but with the way the team is currently constructed, it seems that he may be playing more in the outfield than originally envisioned. In MLB.com’s list of projected Opening Day lineups, O’Hearn was slated to play left field while Horwitz was at first base. Marcell Ozuna could also see time at first when he’s not serving as the team’s designated hitter, adding additional power to this spot in the lineup. This is the first time this position has had this kind of depth since Carlos Santana was with the team.

Second base also looks like a spot that is pretty cut and clear personnel wise. The Pirates went out and got Brandon Lowe in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and immediately upgraded the position far beyond the caliber that they’ve had arguably since Neil Walker was with the club. Lowe was an All-Star in 2025 who had 31 homers and 83 RBIs with a slash line of .256/.307/.784 with a slugging percentage of .477 as well. Lowe was ranked as the seventh best second baseman in baseball heading into this year.

Shortstop is a position that has some question marks surrounding it because of the possibility that top prospect Konnor Griffin could be occupying that spot. Griffin is the unanimous top prospect in baseball right now and is already turning heads in Bradenton as a non-roster invitee to big league Spring Training. However, the Pirates have been notoriously slow with rookies, especially with ones that they want to maintain team control over, so it’s anyone’s guess as to when Griffin will actually start his career in Pittsburgh.

If not Griffin on Opening Day, the team will look to Nick Gonzales to take the reins at shortstop. Gonzales spent a majority of his 2025 season at second base, but made the move over after Isiah Kiner-Falefa was claimed off waivers by the Toronto Blue Jays. With that being said Gonzales has spent enough time at short in the past and is more than a capable defender at the position. While Gonzales is not the weakest link in the Pirates’ lineup as an infielder, he certainly does not have the same pop as his counterparts on the other side of the field. Gonzales had an average year at the plate in 2025, but has not to this point looked like the top hitter he was at New Mexico State.

Currently, the lone option the Buccos have at third base is long time utility man Jared Triolo. The former Gold Glove Award winner is a great defender who can play virtually anywhere on the field, but will likely spend most of his time at third in 2026 given the lack of other players that can fill that role. The Pittsburgh Post Gazette’s, Jason Mackey, told 93.7 The Fan Pittsburgh that the Pirates’ search for another third baseman continues but has cooled since entering Spring Training.

Triolo is more than capable of being the team’s everyday third baseman for the entirety of the season, but he is by far the worst hitter from this infield group. With that being said his defensive prowess outshines anyone on the entire team so his presence should not be viewed as a negative. More consistency in the lineup could be beneficial to Triolo looking to take the next step in his career offensively.

Overall this infield group has some nice pieces, but is not without its question marks. The lack of depth at third base could become an issue if Triolo goes down with an injury but this is still a group that should be able to contribute heavily to a lineup that is in dire need of more offense. Look for this group as a whole to take a big leap forward in 2026.

Six bold predictions that would spark Phillies in 2026

Six bold predictions that would spark Phillies in 2026 originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

It’s that time. Speculation time. Spring Training brings enough preseason hype to stir some flashy expectations ahead of a new season.

We’re a month and a week from Opening Day. Time’s flying. The offseason did too.

This Phillies club has a steady floor, but there are still questions about how sustainable it is. There’s new blood on the roster, new deals with core players, and clear areas that need to improve if they’re going to get over the hump — which means there’s room for a few pleasant surprises.

Like the following.

Bryce Harper puts together a 35-plus homer campaign

He’s the hottest topic, so let him take it away. The two-time MVP has that look in his eye. The Phillies have unfinished business and he’s aware of it, having been at the forefront of four straight postseason runs.

The number might feel lofty considering Harper hasn’t hit that mark since 2021. A lot of that traces back to health, and he seems to be in a great spot entering the season. The Phillies are going to do all they can to protect his bat in the lineup.

After not seeing as many pitches in the zone in 2025, Harper can stay patient, hunt hittable pitches and punish mistakes. Don’t be surprised if we get three or four multi-homer games if he’s pushing 35. His odds to hit 40 are just over 5-1, so even that’s not completely out of the picture.

Harper might even go light up the World Baseball Classic as a precursor to a resurgent — if that’s the appropriate term — 2026.

Justin Crawford wins Rookie of the Year

The award feels wide open. There’s no clear-cut favorite, which opens the door for Crawford.

If he’s the everyday center fielder, he’ll have the chance to compile all year — extra-base hits, RBIs and stolen bases. Based on early reports out of Clearwater, he seems like one of those composed rookies — like Steven Kwan in 2022 — who can contribute from the jump.

Yes, he’s stepping into a big market with a passionate fan base, but he’ll be protected from the No. 9 hole (his expected spot) by All-Star-caliber hitters in Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber.

His ability to hit same-side pitching throughout the minors — plus what happens when he puts the ball in play — gives him a real shot to be one of the more exciting young outfielders in baseball. A .290 average, 35 XBH and 30 steals would likely be enough for the award.

Speed still kills — just ask his father, Carl — and that, paired with his old-fashioned contact ability, makes him an interesting pick at 15-1 odds to take home the hardware.

Aidan Miller becomes an everyday infielder post-All-Star break

“Youth infusion,” just like manager Rob Thomson has preached.

The 21-year-old, bouncing around the infield in Spring Training, is going to put the Phillies in a tough spot all year long. Over the last two months of his 2025 season, Miller posted OPS’ over 1.000 in each month. His speed and base-running aggressiveness took a jump too, swiping 59 bases a year after tallying just 23.

He could cut down on the swing-and-miss, but that’s more of a big-league critique. The Phillies know what they have in the former first-rounder and they don’t want to rush his progression. But if he’s at Triple-A to begin the season, his presence alone will light a metaphorical fire under Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott the entire season.

Sure, that can be a positive for those former “Daycare” members. But it’s more likely that Miller’s success at the minor league level becomes so overwhelming that he forces his way up — even if it means Harper heads back to the outfield, which is very unlikely.

Sep 27, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton (25) reacts to his home run during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park (Bill Streicher – Imagn Images)

Phillies land Byron Buxton at the trade deadline

It’s been a name floating around for years, and the Phillies and Minnesota were a match not once, but twice last season. They made deals for Harrison Bader and Jhoan Duran.

The Phillies could still use another right-handed force who can impact the middle of the order with power. Adolis García might provide that jolt, but if it’s not his 2022-23 form, Dave Dombrowski could get antsy in a playoff push and swing a deal for Buxton.

Minnesota will easily be one of the worst teams in the game. They recently lost one of their top starters in Pablo López to a potentially season-ending injury. They’re coming off a 70-win 2025 season. It’s not looking promising.

Buxton was the lone bright spot offensively. He slugged a career-high 35 homers, drove in 83 runs and posted an .878 OPS. He earned his first Silver Sluggers honors in his 11th big league season. He even stole 24 bases without being caught — the only player with at least 15 steals without a caught stealing. Add in plus defense, and you’ve got a player who fits a winning club in a lot of ways.

The Phillies may not have a direct need in the outfield right now, but this is an upgrade anywhere. Ultimately, this might become less bold as the season progresses.

Aaron Nola notches 200 innings and posts a sub-3.50 ERA

Surprisingly, the 32-year-old has only paired those two together once in his 11-year career.

The World Baseball Classic — and the ramp-up for it — could be beneficial to Nola. He dealt with injuries last season, but don’t forget he got Cy Young votes the year prior.

Pitchers who lose a tick or two often need time to adjust — not necessarily reinvent themselves, but find a consistent new way to get outs. In Nola’s case, the velocity should return close to normal with a healthy camp. While Zack Wheeler will likely still be more than effective when he returns, Nola is the arm in the rotation there isn’t much buzz around right now.

If Nola can even make 30 starts, that’s a massive plus. And his ability to keep hitters off balance could help him return to true form. The Phillies could really use it, especially with Taijuan Walker’s uncertainty and a rookie fifth starter in Andrew Painter.

Phillies lead the league in bullpen ERA

This gets bold when you understand the history behind it. 50 years ago — 1976 — is the last time they pulled off this feat, and it’d be the first time since 2008 that they’d lead the National League.

It’s a strong group. Brad Keller and Jhoan Duran are arguably the best eighth-and-ninth inning combo in baseball. But it’s the depth bridging to those final two innings that gives them a real shot.

Tanner Banks, José Alvarado and Orion Kerkering could all realistically register below-3 ERAs, but the real swing factor is the complementary relievers fighting for spots.

While not guarantees to make the Opening Day roster right now, right-hander Jonathan Bowlan — acquired for Matt Strahm — and Kyle Backhus are two names with big league experience who, with some fine-tuning, could get meaningful outs.

Look out for this bullpen. It’s the biggest area of improvement from last year’s club heading into the season.

Padres should be snake-in-the-grass in 2026

Manny Machado | Getty Images

Despite multiple additions early in Spring Training, the San Diego Padres took a step back in 2026 projections according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus). In January, the numbers projected significant steps back for multiple players on the team but the lack of adding any higher tier talent seems to have negatively affected how the analytics view the Padres for the upcoming season.

At this point, FanGraphs projects a 79-83 record and fourth place finish in the NL West for the Friars. PECOTA is only slightly better at 80-82. While noting the loss of Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Yu Darvish and Robert Suarez, the poor projections for the remaining team from last year drags down any possible upside their additions could give the rankings.

Last season’s lack of power continues

The only player projected to have a better season than last year is Jackson Merrill. Every other position player is worse or about the same in assessing their performance. While projecting Luis Campusano, Nick Castellanos, Sung-Mun Song and Bryce Johnson as the bench players, none of them have an fWAR above 0.8.

Miguel Andujar is the platoon partner for Gavin Sheets or the DH and his fWAR is 0.6. No Padre position player has an fWAR above 5.4 (Fernando Tatis Jr.) while many are between 0.5 and 1.5. Tatis Jr. is projected to lead the team with 30 homers.

Pitching woes

The starting pitchers fair no better. Michael King will only get 161 innings with a 3.68 ERA. Nick Pivetta takes a big step back with a 3.92 ERA and Joe Musgrove gets a 3.89 ERA projection. There is no belief in Randy Vasquez at 4.79 and Germán Márquez is the projected fifth starter with a 5.03 ERA.

The bullpen also gets very little love with lefty Adrian Morejon, who is widely considered a top reliever and was recently listed by MLB Network as a top 10 reliever in baseball, given an fWAR of 1.1 and a 3.40 ERA. Only Mason Miller gets any respect with a 2.44 ERA and fWAR of 2.3.

Playoff miss

The Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics and Cincinnati Reds are all listed as having better odds of making the playoffs than the Padres. With the Dodgers listed at 94% to win the division and 99% to make the playoffs, the Padres come in at 1.2% to win the division and 22.1% to make the playoffs.

The San Francisco Giants come in at 37.4% to make the playoffs and the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 32% to make the playoffs. The Padres got the benefit of the doubt for much of the offseason with multiple projections listing them as the second or third best team in the NL West. That is no longer the case.

The only way to get national respect for this team in 2026 was if A.J. Preller agreed with the media around the league and traded away Tatis Jr. in order to acquire a power bat and top-tier starter. Trading the organization’s best player doesn’t seem like a good way to improve a team that finished with 90 wins last season. Preller made it clear early on that was not an option and he recently stated that shedding salary was not a priority.

Adding in the margins

While Preller has backloaded the team with starters returning from injury to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, Randy Vasquez is facing a pivotal season in his career. Vasquez is out of options and must make the staff or be off-loaded at the end of spring. Reports from pitching coach Ruben Niebla and manager Craig Stammen has reflected that Vasquez has made the effort to take that step forward and has held onto the advances made at the end of last season.

The bats added, Castellanos and Andujar as 1B/DH options and Ty France as more of a defensive option, don’t deliver the power that fans had hoped. This puts the burden on the current roster to step up their game.

Heart and character matter

None of this goes into the projections seen on FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. They use algorithms and underlying metrics as well as aging statistics to determine their estimates. As fans who watch this team and know the players character and motivation, we can argue the numbers listed in these projections are devoid of the determination that we know these players exhibit.

Will the heart and character of the players play a role in helping the Padres outperform these numbers?

Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado can’t avoid the inevitability of aging. But not every player ages the same way and there are plenty of examples of good performances well into some athletes 30s. It is true that neither of them will play their pivotal positions for much longer, but the math used for these numbers doesn’t take into account the uniqueness of each player.

Proving them wrong

If just a few of the players play to the same level they did last season; if Tatis Jr. finds more power and Merrill stays healthy and takes another step forward; if Machado and Bogaerts stay relatively healthy and don’t regress as much as expected; then the offense should be fine. No matter if Andujar and Castellano aren’t big power hitters, both are improvements over Jason Heyward and Yuli Gurriel.

The Padres won’t have as many singles with Luis Arraez gone but Tatis Jr. will have better lineup protection with Merrill (or Bogaerts?) hitting behind him. The bottom of the lineup has little power as it presently stands unless Castellanos breaks out, Gavin Sheets plays above last year or another bat is added. But all of these issues were much worse last year and somehow this team finished three games behind the Dodgers.

Preller may not be done, there is lots of time left for more moves and still plenty of decent players looking for jobs. The trade market will still be busy for another few weeks and I don’t know that we have ever seen Preller go a whole offseason without a trade.

With just a little luck, maybe the Padres can surprise some people. A snake-in-the-grass isn’t always a bad thing.