Category: MLB

We step outside the lab again today to take a look at the argument for an Astros tear down. There are two main reasons why a rebuild makes a ton of sense. So, we should take a look at what that looks like and the whys and what fors for a decision as seemingly rash as this. Isn’t this giving up on the season? Indeed it would be and that is the first thing we should take a look at.

In a previous post, I looked at the Astros current math problem. They sit at 20-30 as I write this. In order to win 85 games they would need to finish 65-47. That’s assuming that 85 wins sneaks you into the playoffs. That’s a 94 win pace over a full season. I don’t think any of my colleagues picked them to win that many games. I had them pegged at 85 wins and that was assuming good health for guys like Hunter Brown. I just don’t see .580 baseball as very likely from here on out.

However, the Astros usual course is to continue trying to win and then adjusting for the next season on the fly. If it means that players depart for free agency then so be it. You get your compensation pick (when you tender them a qualifying offer) and hope that your farm system can pick up the pieces. Framber Valdez took the spot of Gerrit Cole. Jeremy Pena took Carlos Correa’s place. Kyle Tucker replaced George Springer. You get the idea.

Reason One: The farm system is barren

You cannot expect someone to come up and replace the stars. In the span of another year plus, you are on pace to lose Jeremy Pena and possibly Hunter Brown (more on that later). There isn’t anyone in the farm system there to take their spots. So, you are essentially just losing guys for the sake of losing them. This dive bombs us into the real reason why a rebuild is necessary. Simply put, you are on a hamster wheel and there is no good way to get off.

Even if you could re-sign Jeremy Pena or Hunter Brown then you would be committing all of your resources to keeping a team together that is not currently good enough to win. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are going to continue to get older and less effective as that nucleus gets older. The younger guys behind them will also continue to get more expensive.

There are only two ways around that hamster wheel. The first is to spend money like the Dodgers. We aren’t even sure what the CBA will look like after the season and if that will even be legal. However, it is nearly impossible to envision Crane spending upwards of 300 million on the roster. The other way to get through it is to fill enough holes with young players that you can compete. Neither of those scenarios seems likely.

Reason two: You aren’t likely re-signing Hunter Brown or Jeremy Pena

It just isn’t likely for any multitude of reasons. For one, both are in line for one of the long-term megadeals that the Astros simply don’t pay. For another, we aren’t even sure that they would deserve that kind of pay day even if we were willing. Given the recent history of the Astros, I seriously doubt they would sign any pitcher to a contract beyond two or three seasons. This could be an industry wide thing.

Pena has the look of a three or four win player moving forward. Fangraphs would peg that as worth between 25 and 30 million a season, but it is hard to see the Astros giving a deal beyond five seasons at that kind of money. I personally would not blame them. If that is a given then playing them until they are free agents is a foolish option. As we saw with Kyle Tucker, you could get as many as three useful players for a player with one year left until they become a free agent.

Imagine having more than a season. Teams that make deals at the deadline can demand a king’s ransom because the acquiring team gets them for two pennant drives. You could then get between six and eight players if you deal them separately, If you dealt them together you could demand multiple top 100 overall prospects and probably some current big league talent.

A roster without Pena and Brown would likely not compete in any circumstance. So, you might as well trade the likes of Paredes, Walker, Abreu, Hader, and Meyers. If you managed to jettison all of them you could be looking at between five to ten additional prospects. That is a total of 10 to 16 prospects between all of those players. The coup de gras would be Yordan Alvarez, If you got a Juan Soto type deal you could see another four or five prime prospects coming. We are talking a total of 20 prospects.

The Cash considerations

If you traded all of the players listed you would be looking at upwards of 120 million in player salary savings. Between 1998 and 2000 the Seattle Mariners dealt or allowed three of their stars to walk. They won 114 games in 2001. Obviously, that is the absolute ceiling of what we are talking about here, but the blueprint is there. You cannot just consider the players you get back for those players. You must also consider the financial savings from cutting their salaries from your roster.

Those Mariners used the money to sign good but not great players that made that roster deeper. No, they did not win the World Series that season and they were never THAT good again, but they were constantly above .500 and in the hunt even though they dealt three Hall of Fame level players. The St. Louis Cardinals dealt all of their expensive players away this past season and they currently sit at 28-19.

The difference between this and a traditional rebuild is that Crane has shown he is willing to spend up to the current tax line. If you couple the right prospects with 120 million worth of free agents then you could return to competitiveness immediately. You also restart the clock on star level players so that you aren’t necessarily churning veterans every year. You could build something.

I’m not sure Dana Brown is up to this task. That is the downside. However, if you couple these moves with another solid draft then your farm system goes from being one of the bottom five to one of the top five. It’s time to start building the next great era of Astros baseball. This one is winding down. It has happened to all dynasties before. The 1990s Braves feels like the most compelling comparison point. Those Braves got old. These Astros are getting old. No one wants to sit around and watch the 2010-2014 Astros again. A teardown would prevent that kind of prolonged pain if handled correctly. What do you think? Is it time to start the teardown?

Here’s something I’ve tweeted in recent days, but it’s also a good conversation to have here.

The collapse of batting average across MLB is astounding! As of yesterday, there are more qualified hitters batting under .200 (17) than there are guys batting .300 or better (15). These are not the scrubs pinch hitting a couple times a week; these are the everyday players! 

Compare this to 30 years ago (1996) and there were 48 guys batting .300 or better. Meanwhile, the guy with the lowest qualified batting average in the entire sport in 1996? Delino DeShields, and he hit .224, a full nine points worse than the next guy. 

Batting average has correctly been minimized in importance over the last couple of decades, but Dear Lord has the pendulum swung too far in the other direction (and this is coming from a full blown nerd!). So what do you think OTM? With more guys hitting under .200 than over .300, does MLB need to make rule changes in the next CBA to incentivize contact?

Talk about this and whatever else you’d like in this thread, and as always, be good to one another!

Yesterday’s loss to the Reds featured a rather lackluster performance from the Phillies bullpen. Tim Mayza, Orion Kerkering, Brad Keller, and José Alvarado combined to allow 5 runs in 4 innings and doom the Phillies’ chances of mounting a comeback. So naturally, let’s take this off day as a chance to re-assess the trust level for each member of the bullpen.

Jhoan Duran is probably the only reliever with absolute trust right now. The Phillies closer has been dominant since returning from the injured list, allowing only one run on 3 hits and 5 walks, with that run and three of the walks coming in his first appearance back after forgoing a rehab assignment. Duran’s struck out 13 of the 26 batters he’s faced in his six appearances over that span and converted all three of his save opportunities.

However, after Duran is where things get complicated. Chase Shugart has been the most consistently good of the rest of the Phillies relievers, but as Ethan Witte pointed out earlier this week, Shugart has been deployed in almost exclusively low leverage situations, and his pristine 1.53 ERA doesn’t tell the full story. Orion Kerkering has good numbers at first glance with a 2.60 ERA, but he’s still having trouble getting whiffs. Tim Mayza has pitched the most innings out of the bullpen with 22.2 and has been mostly effective, but he now sports a 4.04 ERA after being charged with two runs yesterday. Tanner Banks has regressed heavily from his strong 2025 with a 6.75 ERA and a WHIP over 2. Free agent signing Brad Keller has been uneven and trade acquisition Jonathan Bowlan has been mediocre. José Alvarado has not yet shown that he can recapture his form from before his suspension and injury and has been one of the biggest disappointments on the pitching staff, as he owns a 6.11 ERA after surrendering a two-run homer that was the final nail in the Phillies’ chances yesterday.

As a whole, the Phillies bullpen entered yesterday ranked 14th in ERA (3.88) and 15th in WHIP (1.32). However, they were ranked second in fWAR (2.5) thanks in large part to a strong FIP (3.40) that ranks fourth and an expected ERA (3.12) that ranks second. Their second worst BABIP (.318) does back up that they are due for some positive regression in the more traditional bullpen rankings.

So, what is your trust level in each of the Phillies relievers? On a scale of 1-5 with 5 being absolute trust and 1 being completely untrustworthy, how would you rank the current relievers?

Ha, this isn’t really even a question, except in the rhetorical sense. I just wanted to have an appreciation post for Dominic Smith, so this is it.

It would’ve been enough for Smith to have those two big April hits and then fade into obsolescence. Two huge game-swinging mashes for a guy signed to a split deal with a $1.25 million salary in the majors would’ve been plenty. As I did in an earlier post about him, that would’ve been reminiscent of Pablo Sandoval, and it would’ve been fine. We still remember Pablo Sandoval.

But that’s not what Smith has done at all. He’s kept raking. His rolling 100-PA xwOBA hasn’t been below league average since the start of April, and it hasn’t even been below .350 since April 14. Nor is he egregiously outhitting it: a .370 wOBA and .378 xwOBA is both really good and nothing to sideeye for any reason.

It’s easy to say that Smith has never had a season quite like this one, except in 2020. He was crazy-good that year, and he’s still got a ways to go this year before matching his PA total from that shortened season (106 so far, 199 in 2020). But in every other year, he really didn’t do much: in his other eight seasons, he had an xwOBA in the .320s four times, and something lower the other four times. In other words, in a non-shortened season, his career-high xwOBA was .325.

Since I lured you in here with a question that presumably has an answer, I’ll give you a brief, non-nuanced version.

• Smith is swinging at everything. While it’s not the highest z-swing rate of his career, it’s the highest in quite a few years. His chase rate is egregiously high, not just for him, but for anyone. He’s swinging at nearly half of first pitches he sees; previously he was much closer to a quarter, while the league is about one-in-three. He’s not walking, but he’s also not striking out, because he’s up there to hit the ball.
• He’s hunting and destroying four-seamers. There’s nothing special about Smith and non-fastballs, he’s still struggling against them. He’s not even hitting sinkers all that well. But, he has a .560 xwOBA (el-oh-el) against four-seamers thus far.
• He’s not hitting it on the ground. It’s important to know, I guess, that Smith isn’t swinging any harder, nor did he adopt any Braves-esque approach of trading contact for power and trying to hit a dinger on every swing. He’s actually moved back in the box, and his swing is slightly shorter, with no emphasis on swinging harder or anything like that. He’s hunting fastballs, but giving himself a chance to survive the other stuff.

Put these things together, and, well, I think it’s safe to say that part of the reason he’s doing it is because pitchers haven’t adjusted. He’s getting a lot of pitches in the zone, probably too many for anyone that can do what he does. He’s still getting a bunch of four-seamers, which doesn’t have to be the case. Lastly, a lot of his xwOBA is driven by flares; though he’s dropped both ground- and air-based not-useful contact, a lot of the corresponding increase has been in bloops or hard choppers, rather than in good contact and/or barrels. All that said, though, we’re more than halfway through May, and he’s still doing the same stuff he’s been doing in terms of beating up on opposing pitching, so maybe he’ll continue to fly under the radar and rack up awesomeness for a while yet.

Remember yesterday, when I brought out the old line: “No team is as bad as it looks when it’s on a long losing streak”?

I dunno. Maybe I’m wrong about that. The Cubs sure looked that bad in losing to the Brewers 5-0 Wednesday evening at Wrigley Field, being swept by their division rivals and now on a five-game losing streak.

The Brewers both dominated the Cubs pitching-wise and schooled them in several aspects of the game.

Edward Cabrera got out of the first inning scoreless despite allowing two hits. Nico Hoerner then led off the bottom of the first with a double.

I mean, I really could just stop this recap right there because the rest of the game was all Brewers and not Cubs. The thing about Nico’s double is — he took a really wide turn around second, thinking “triple,” but then had to quickly scoot back to first. I guess he really wanted third base because then he tried to advance on a medium-deep fly ball to left-center.

Hoerner was called safe, but it was overturned on review [VIDEO].

If you did not see this game — that was the only time the Cubs had a runner past first base.

In the second, the Brewers played that annoying kind of baseball that has made them good and drives us nuts. First, they got a catcher’s interference call on review [VIDEO].

Then Cabrera walked Joey Ortiz.

And then this happened [VIDEO].

I dunno. (I think I’ve said that before.) I’m obviously not in Pete Crow-Armstrong’s head and have no idea what’s on his mind or what he was thinking there, but something is clearly off with him. If it’s still the incident with the Sox fan, well, that’s in the past and gotta move on from it. PCA always wears his heart on his sleeve and his intensity level is something we don’t see from too many players. Often, that intensity serves him well. Recently, it has not. Honestly, given everything that’s happened to him this year, maybe Craig Counsell should have given him Wednesday off, which would have given him two full days (with today’s off day) for a reset.

PCA talked about all this after the game, and listening to this clip, he didn’t sound real good [VIDEO].

If Joe Maddon were managing this team, I think he’d tell PCA to take the off day and not think about baseball at all.

Anyway, that play made it 3-0 Brewers, and you’re thinking this is 20/20 hindsight but honestly my first thought after that play was, “This game is over.”

And it was. The Cubs had just three more baserunners the entire game — walks to Seiya Suzuki in the second and Michael Busch in the eighth, and a single by Alex Bregman in the seventh. Busch was erased on a double play, and that along with the DP on Nico in the first meant that Brewers pitchers faced just two over the minimum. Starter Kyle Harrison struck out 11 Cubs and reliever DL Hall added two K’s. It’s like the Cubs were just going through the motions after that Little League home run in the second. I’d like to hope I’m wrong about that.

And to top all that off, Cabrera left the game with a blister [VIDEO].

Obviously, the last thing the Cubs need is another starting pitcher injury. Fortunately, blisters aren’t serious and perhaps he won’t even miss a start. Cabrera threw reasonably well; the error on PCA made all three of the runs that scored on that play unearned.

Cubs relievers, with one notable exception, threw well. Trent Thornton, Hoby Milner, Ryan Rolison and Daniel Palencia combined for 5.1 shutout innings, allowing two hits and two walks, with six strikeouts.

And then there was Phil Maton, who allowed Milwaukee’s fifth run in the seventh, giving up two hits and a walk and wild-pitching in the run [VIDEO].

At this point, I’ve got to think maybe there’s some other injury to Maton that can put him on the IL again and get someone in the pen who can actually get outs. Who would that be? Here’s the Cubs’ 40-man roster, maybe you can figure it out. And I know this has become a meme but… maybe the Cubs really should stop signing former Astros relievers.

Here, let me show you one positive Cubs highlight. Nico made a nice stop and jump throw for an out in the seventh [VIDEO].

Here are postgame comments from Counsell [VIDEO].

A “sad note,” as he called it when he sent it to me, about this game from BCB’s JohnW53:

This was the 305th regular-season game since 1901 in which the Cubs made two or fewer hits — one of every 64 played.

It was the 49th since July 31, 2012, the last time the Cubs made no more than two hits and committed three errors. They made one hit and three errors that day, in a 5-0 loss at home to the Pirates.

They made one hit and two errors in a 5-0 loss at home to the Dodgers on May 31, 2016.

They made two hits and two errors in losses at Washington by 4-1 and 6-1, on June 13, 2016, and June 27, 2017.

They also made two and two in a 9-0 loss to the Reds at home on May 6, 2023.

Back to that line I quoted at the top of this recap… No, of course no team is as bad as it looks during a long losing streak. We know this Cubs team is better than that. Hopefully they begin looking that way starting Friday.

Even with this losing streak and being swept, the Cubs are just 1.5 games behind the Brewers, in a virtual tie with the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central (three percentage points behind). The team will certainly enjoy this off day, their first after playing nine days in a row, and then will begin a three-game series against the Astros Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Jameson Taillon is the Cubs’ listed starter for Friday. At this time the Astros don’t have a starter listed. Game time Friday is 1:20 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be on Apple TV (how to watch).

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The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals wrap up a three-game series this afternoon with the rubber match at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. 

My Pirates vs Cardinals predictions are eyeing Pittsburgh to grab another victory in the finale with Braxton Ashcraft on the hill. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, May 21. 

Who will win Pirates vs Cardinals today: Pirates moneyline (-122)

The Pittsburgh Pirates shut down the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, winning 7-0 behind a four-hit game from rookie Konnor Griffin. The Bucs' pitching staff allowed just five hits, containing a Cards offense that has struggled with consistency. Braxton Ashcraft takes the mound today for the visitors, and he's been impressive. 

The right-hander owns a 3.09 ERA, and that lowers to 2.16 on the road across four outings. Coincidentally enough, all six earned runs he's allowed away from PNC Park were to the Cards last month in a tough start. But Ashcraft has improved immensely since that outing, compiling a 2.11 ERA across three May appearances. His last road start was a seven-inning, one-run outing against the San Francisco Giants. 

As for the Cards, they hand Dustin May the ball. He owns a 4.50 ERA at home this season, and Pittsburgh's lineup has hit him around. They're batting .400 across 40 at-bats, and the Pirates are one of the top offensive ball clubs in the big leagues, averaging 4.9 runs per game. The visitors will keep it rolling here. 

COVERS INTEL: May owns a BABIP of .338 so far this season, compared to .298 in 2025. 

Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 runs (-108)

Four of the last five meetings between the Pirates and Cardinals have cashed the Over, and Wednesday's matchup finished just below today's total. While I do expect Ashcraft to have a solid outing, the Cards have hit him around before, and they could do some damage. 

As for May, he's had minimal luck against Pittsburgh's lineup, with several key players swinging it well against him. The right-hander also has a career-worst 52% hard-hit rate, and the Bucs have scored 13 runs across their last two contests. 

The St. Louis bullpen has also been poor, compiling a 4.53 ERA, and it surrendered four earned runs on Wednesday. 

Pirates vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Pirates -122 | Cardinals +117
• Run line: Pirates -1.5 (+138) | Cardinals +1.5 (-144)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Pirates vs Cardinals trend

The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 away games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Pirates vs Cardinals and game info

Pirates vs Cardinals latest injuries

Pirates vs Cardinals weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Worcester: L, 2-7 (F/11) (BOX SCORE)

This game fell apart in extras, namely the eleventh, and to be honest, the WooSox should have had it won earlier than that. The pitching was solid throughout the night, starting with Jake Bennett striking out eleven Red Wings (Nationals AAA) and allowing one run. Bennett’s pitch count was only at 73 so he could have conceivably gone longer, but the bullpen was fine throughout the night and recorded 8 more Ks.

Worcester lacked an extra base hit besides Matt Lloyd’s solo shot and also went hitless in eight chances with runners in scoring position. But they played with their food for too long and, by virtue of Wyatt Olds allowing five runs (four earned) in the eleventh, the food got all over them. Bennett is suffering from being a young minor league option… or should I say young with options (ba dum tiss) behind one of the best rotations in baseball. It’s good to know he’s mowing them down consistently in Triple-A.

Portland: W, 9-4 (BOX SCORE)

Catastrophic news as Franklin Arias’ OPS is about to dip under 1.000 with another hitless night (he did, though get on base with a walk). The horror! To be honest, though, behind the rest of the lineup and a good five innings out of Hayden Mullins, a guy who’s becoming the dependable workhorse of Portland’s rotation, the Sea Dogs didn’t need Arias to put away the Fightin Phils’ (Phillies AA). Johanfran Garcia got his sixth home run of the season in the fifth inning and Nelly Taylor had two doubles. This was a feel good win where everyone contributed: even though every single batter struck out at least once on the night, everyone aside from the nine-hole hitter got on base once, as well. The result was a 7-0 lead after two and a game that the Sea Dogs could coast through.

Greenville: L, 4-6 (BOX SCORE)

After losing most of the month, the Drive won two consecutive games for the first time since late April Sunday and Tuesday. That did not continue on Wednesday against Frederick (Orioles High-A). This was more like a defensive death by a thousand cuts, as the Keys got the Drive for 17 hits but just six runs, and the Drive couldn’t match that output by a long shot, gathering just five. Yoelin Cespedes got the game within striking distance with a two-run shot, his eighth of the year, in the ninth inning, but it was too little, too late.

Salem: : W, 8-3 (BOX SCORE)

After getting taken for sixteen runs by the Howlers (Guardians A) on Tuesday, the RidgeYaks came back and allowed just three hits, and just one extra-base hit. Salem had another productive lineup as eight of their nine hitters got a knock and even the one that didn’t got a walk. They also got a home run to clinch the game (albeit all the way back in the fourth inning) out of Andrews Opata. Opata also swiped his twentieth bag of the season. This game was really never within losing distance for Salem.

Have a…. uh… thermodynamic Thursday?

Meet the Mets

Zach Thornton’s major league debut didn’t go as well as hoped when he put the Mets in a hole early. The team did attempt to come back, led by two Juan Soto home runs, but the bullpen put the game out of reach and the Mets dropped their second straight to Washington.

Choose your recap:Amazin’ Avenue, Daily News, MLB.com, Newsday, NY Post

Zach Thornton paid tribute to his partially-paralyzed dad, who made it to the stadium to watch his son pitch in his first major league game.

David Peterson will start the finale against the Nats without an opener.

Despite struggling in Triple-A, the Mets are considering calling up Jonah Tong to start against the Marlins.

A.J. Minter will make one more rehab appearance in Triple-A, and he could rejoin the team next week if all goes well.

To make room for Thornton on the roster, Daniel Duarte was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.

Around the National League East

The Braves took down the Marlins 9-1 behind a dominant performance by Chris Sale.

The Marlins optioned Braxton Garrett to Triple-A after his poor appearance against the Braves.

Aaron Nola struggled in the Phillies’ 9-4 loss to the Reds.

Kyle Schwarber is hitting home runs at an historic pace, but how many home runs will he end up with at the end of the season?

CJ Abrams spoiled yet another pitcher’s major league debut.

Around Major League Baseball

Blue Jays starter José Berríos underwent Tommy John surgery and will be sidelined until the 2027 season.

Shirtless fans have taken over sections of stadiums around the league, but what is behind this new “Tarps Off” trend?

Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. has yet to hit a home run this season, which might be due to his new closed batting stance.

Cubs starter Edward Cabrera exited his start in the fourth inning with a blister issue on his middle finger.

There are quite a few prospects who have been pleasant surprises for their teams so far this season.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Steve Sypa profiled Zach Thornton ahead of his debut.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 2005, Mets starter Dae-Sung Koo doubled off Randy Johnson in just his second major league at-bat.

The last three games have been an adventure with the Yankees bullpen, and not a particularly fun one either. Yes, they secured the win in two out of three, but boy have David Bednar and Camilo Doval put Yankees fans through the wringer in the ninth inning against the Mets and the first two against Toronto. Doval’s final out to secure the save against on Tuesday night is the moment we’ll look at this time on Sequence of the Week.

We join Doval with two outs in the ninth. The back of the Yankees bullpen is short following Bednar and Fernando Cruz’s exertions in the previous two games, leaving Doval as the lone remaining option to close out this game. It’s been far from smooth sailing for the flame throwing righty, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. cutting the Yankees’ lead to one with a sac fly after Doval gave up an Andrés Giménez walk and Ernie Clement single to open the frame. After the Vlad Jr. sac fly, Daulton Varsho reached on an infield single when Doval forgot to cover first base on the grounder to the right side, putting runners on the corners and bringing the Blue Jays’ team leader in home runs Kazuma Okamoto to the plate.

Renowned during his San Francisco days for his triple digits cutter, Doval instead starts Okamoto off with a sinker — a pitch he has been working on behind the scenes with Matt Blake and the rest of the Yankees pitching coaches.

This is pretty close to a perfect pitch — a 100-mph sinker right on the bottom shelf of the strike zone. It’s a called strike if Okamoto doesn’t swing, but commanded to a location where it’s almost impossible to do damage. It’s honestly impressive that Okamoto recognizes it as a strike — given it started off the plate away before tailing back into the zone — and is able to catch a piece and tap it foul.

Following the excellent execution of the first pitch sinker, Doval tries to keep the muscle memory of that release point by targeting the same location with the same pitch.

He manages to achieve the same lateral release point, but this sinker is elevated relative to the previous one. This makes it a more hittable pitch, but it appears that Okamoto is in fight-off mode, perhaps hunting a pitch inside, and he fires a late, off-balance swing and fouls it off to the right.

Doval is now just one strike away from locking down the save. Just one more decent execution of a pitch away from sending all those of a Yankees persuasion home happy. After showing Okamoto a pair of in-breaking sinkers, Doval looks to put him away with a cutter that moves away from the hitter, Austin Wells setting a target low and away.

The key to throwing a good cutter is staying behind and through the ball, something which Doval fails to do here. He almost slings this pitch rather than finishing out in front, causing the pitch to sail wildly inside as it backs up rather than cuts, and Okamoto has to spin out of the way to avoid getting hit.

After mis-executing that cutter so poorly, Doval immediately scraps the pitch and goes back to the sinker. He still has the feeling of having executed two good ones to open the AB, he just has to find that release point again and it should be game over.

Instead, Doval makes a mistake releasing this pitch a hair too early, and it ends up middle-middle. Fortunately for him and his teammates, Okamoto has never quite figured out the correct swing path to match up against Doval’s sinker, and though he is right on time and clubs this ball at 103 mph, he impacts the top of the baseball sending a routine grounder to Anthony Volpe for the game-ending ground out. That is the margin of error that being able to throw over 100 mph affords the pitcher, allowing Doval to get a ground out on a mistake pitch.

Here’s the full sequence:

There is a lot to like from this sequence from Doval. For starters, he managed to find the zone with all three of the sinkers he threw — no small feat considering how much walks have tended to hurt him in his career. They surprisingly haven’t been as big of an issue this year, but his general wildness this campaign has seen him fall behind in counts and then cough up a home run as he is forced into the middle of the zone. I was also impressed by Doval’s ability to immediately flush the previous play when he forgot to cover first. It would be easy to let that moment linger and impact his concentration against Okamoto, but he turned the page quickly and focused fully on this AB.

Finally, I am intrigued by Doval’s progress with this new sinker — a pitch that went from a 12.2-percent usage rate in 2025 to his most used pitch so far in 2026 at a 41.7-percent usage rate. Doval is perennially among the league leaders in ground ball rate and this gives him another weapon to maintain those levels. It’s a pitch I’m excited to analyze more deeply in my new series about the Yankees bringing the sinker back into vogue, so stay tuned! While I’m certainly not ready to say that I trust Doval in spots as high leverage at this, it’s a positive first step toward re-earning the trust to pitch in late-game situations.

Dodgers utility man Tommy Edman is a step closer to being a step closer to returning from the injured list after offseason ankle surgery, thanks to a few more steps closer to full speed in the last week.

Manager Dave Roberts told reporters Wednesday at Petco Park in San Diego that Edman could face hitters at Camelback Ranch in Arizona in the next week, then potentially start a minor league rehab assignment after that.

Edman had right ankle surgery in November, after being hampered by said ankle on and off throughout his time with the Dodgers. When the Dodgers acquired Edman from the Cardinals at the 2024 trade deadline, he was already on the injured list after wrist surgery the prior offseason, but his rehab with St. Louis was hampered by a sprained right ankle. In 2025, Edman was twice on injured list due to the right ankle, missing a combined 49 gamesduring the two stints. The ankle injury also limited his mobility in the field, such that 125 1/3 of his 146 1/3 postseason innings (85.6 percent) came at second base, with only three games in center field.

After the surgery, Edman’s offseason work was limited, with his right leg in a walking boot up until mid January. He was slow-played during spring training, gradually working up, and explained the methodology at Dodgers Fan Fest during the offseason.

“I’m really hopeful I’ll be able to put the ankle injuries of the last couple of years behind me. It’s something I kind of dealt with throughout ’24 and ’25, and I feel like it affected the way to play the game I normally would be able to,” Edman said in January. “The timetable is more of as I progress, so it’s kind of hard to say when I’ll be able to hop back into a major league game again. … I want to make sure I’m a full go, and don’t have to worry about [the ankle] again the rest of the year.”

At the beginning of the regular season, Roberts guestimated Edman would return some time in late May, though that has since been pushed back. Edman has been working out off and on at Dodger Stadium at various times this season, but hadn’t really progressed much until recently. He was moved to the 60-day injured list on May 9, though that does not affect Edman’s timeline at all, as those 60 days will have already expired by the time he is ready to return.

For a comparison of how long Edman’s rehab assignment might take, look no further than Kiké Hernández, who is in his third week of games with Triple-A Oklahoma City and is eligible to be activated off the injured list as early as this Sunday. Hernández is coming off left elbow surgery in November and was initially thought to be out until around midseason but made strides in April to essentially leapfrog Edman in the return timeline pecking order.

The Royals were swept at home by the Red Sox, they’ve lost 9 of their last 10 games now, writes Jaylon Thompson.

“People are frustrated, sure,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “I mean, we don’t come out here and lose games and walk away feeling good about it. “I mean, there’s no chance of that. So yeah, that’s being a big-leaguer, is being able to go turn the page and go compete the next time.”

The Royals are running into a lot of outs on the bases, why is that?

Garcia seemed to shoulder the blame, mainly for not running hard out of the box, which could have made the play at second much closer.

“Honestly, it was a mistake,” Garcia said through interpreter Luis Perez. “I didn’t come out of the box hard. Once the throw was high, [first base coach Damon Hollins] said, ‘Go,’ but obviously, he didn’t see me coming out of the box. So it was my mistake.”

After a leadoff single in the sixth inning, Lane Thomas was picked off attempting to steal third following Starling Marte’s one-out single that put runners on first and second. But Vinnie Pasquantino flew out to end the inning, following a passed ball that allowed Marte to go to second base.

Lefty Justin Lamkin was selected as the Royals most pleasantly surprising prospect by MLB Pipeline.

Last year’s 71st overall pick, Lamkin was the talk of the backfields in Surprise this spring, with director of player development Mitch Maier saying, “I’m really excited because, wow, this is what it looks like.” But even given that, the former Texas A&M hurler is moving quicker than expected, having already reached Double-A after posting a 1.27 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings for High-A Quad Cities. Lamkin works with a fastball-slider-changeup-curveball mix, and while he’s shown a little bit of a velo bump in the pros, it’s the slider in particular that has gotten a ton of whiffs early in 2026.

Kevin O’Brien at Royals Keep talked about how bleak it is for the Royals

Matt Crossland dove into why the Royals are so bad on the road

Caleb Moody of Kings of Kauffman talked about how the Royals should follow the Twins footsteps on demoting underperforming players

Shohei Ohtani had an impressive outing and performance at the plate in San Diego

The Brewers just swept the Cubs in Chicago, behind Kyle Harrison’s impressive performance

People are taking their shirts off at baseball games, why? (KU did it at a football game against Utah this past fall, among other schools FWIW)

Pete Crow-Armstrong is having a tough couple days defensively, his latest gaffe allowed a little league homer last night

The Tampa Bay Rays are quietly crushing everyone

Zach Thornton made his MLB debut last night for the Mets, his dad was able to attend, which is awesome

The Thunder evened the Western Conference Finals last night against the San Antonio Spurs

Today’s song of the day is Mrs. Robinson by Simon & Garfunkel

Triple-A: Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (Marlins) 4, Norfolk Tides 2

Norfolk second baseman Payton Eeles had himself a big game, going 2-for-2 with three stolen bases, two walks, and a run scored. The rest of the lineup when 1-for-27 with five walks and 14 strikeouts. The only other hitter with a hit was Bryan Ramos. The team went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position.

Trey Gibson started on the mound, but went just three innings, allowing a run on three hits, three walks, and two strikeouts. Gerald Ogando was the standout for the Tides, tossing 1.1 scoreless innings and recording all four outs via strikeout. Nick Raquet had a tough afternoon. He allowed two runs in 1.1 innings and made two fielding errors. Josh Walker coughed up a run in his 1.1 innings or work. And Alex Pham worked a scoreless eighth inning to close the book on the pitching staff for the game.

Double-A: Chesapeake Baysox 12, Somerset Patriots (Yankees) 8

Chesapeake were actually outhit by visiting Somerset 12-9, but they also walked 12 times and hit four home runs as part of the onslaught. Ethan Anderson got the scoring going with a solo homer un the first inning as part of his 1-for-2 game with three walks and three runs scored. Aron Estrada added two hits, a double and a home run, plus three runs scored and four RBI. Carter Young hit his fourth home run of the season while Tavian Josenberger went deep for the second time. Thomas Sosa had a 2-for-2 game with a double, three walks, and two runs scored.

Seven different Baysox pitchers took the mound in the winning effort. The first four hurlers allowed eight runs over 4.1 innings. That included starter Juaron Watts-Brown, who recorded just two outs and allowed three runs. The final three pitchers combined for 4.2 shutout frames. Cohen Achen earned the win, striking out two over 1.2 innings. Ben Vespi also had a nice outing, striking out three in his 1.2 shutdown frames.

High-A: Frederick Keys 6, Greenville Drive (Red Sox) 4

Eight of the Keys nine hitters collected hits. Many of them had multiple as the team collected 17 base knocks altogether, though only one went for extra bases. Leandro Arias led the way with his 4-for-5 game that included an RBI, a run scored, and a stolen base. Wehiwa Aloy had two hits and a stolen base. Victor Figueroa had two hits of his own to go with a walk and two runs scored. Colin Yeaman had a three-hit game plus a stolen base. Ike Irish was out of the lineup again with a wrist bruise he suffered on a hit by pitch over the weekend.

Boston Bateman delivered 5.2 shutout innings in this one, striking out six and walking two in the process. The lefty is in the midst of an impressive run that has seen him allow just one earned run over his last four starts. His ERA is down to 3.62 on the year. The three relievers that came behind him had more trouble. Jacob Cravey allowed one run over 1.1 innings. Braeden Sloan followed with a run allowed on no hits but four walks in his lone inning. And Chandler Marsh coughed up two runs in the ninth inning before closing out the win.

Low-A: Delmarva Shorebirds 12, Wilson Warbirds (Brewers) 6

The Shorebirds absolutely loaded up the box score in this win. The team had 13 hits, nine walks, four stolen bases, and three errors. So, not perfect, but still an impressive showing. They were led by the two Amparos. Félix Amparo went 3-for-3 with a triple and four RBI. Edwin Amparo hit his second home run of the season and drove in two. Andrés Nolaya collected three hits, scored twice, and stole two bases. Juan Ortega added a pair of hits, a pair of runs, and a pair of RBI.

Christian Rodriguez put in a solid effort on the mound. The starter worked 5.2 innings, allowing two runs on seven hits, three walks, and five strikeouts. Brendan Parks was credited with the win despite giving up two runs in his 2.1 innings of work. Jason Shockley allowed two runs but neither were earned as he recorded the final three outs of the game.

Box Scores

Thursday’s Schedule

Norfolk: at Jacksonville, 7:05 pm. Starter: Christian Herberholz (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Chesapeake: vs Somerset, 6:35 pm. Starter: Evan Yates (1-2, 5.34 ERA)

Frederick: vs Greenville, 7:00 pm. Starter: Yeiber Cartaya (0-0, 0.68 ERA)

Delmarva: at Wilson, 7:05 pm. Starter: Denton Biller (1-1,6.58 ERA)

The Brewers do not hit many home runs. When play starts on Friday, they’ll be last in the majors. While I’d be surprised if the Brewers finish the season in last — remember, Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, and Andrew Vaughn have all missed significant time, and they’ve closed the gap somewhat in the last week — it does seem like power isn’t going to be a major strength for this team.

But even if I don’t believe the Brewers are going to finish last in the league in homers, it got my twisted baseball-history brain working. I wanted to know: has a team that finished last in homers ever won the World Series?

The answer is yes, but it’s only happened five times, and two of those occurred more than 100 years ago. But surprisingly, the most recent occurrence isn’t from all that long ago. Let’s look back.

Ancient history: 1906 White Sox

I’d argue that the first two instances shouldn’t really count. The first is the 1906 Chicago White Sox, in what was just the third World Series ever played.

If you aren’t familiar with how baseball was played in 1906, get ready for some numbers.

The White Sox hit seven home runs in 1906.

The league leaders that season, the Philadelphia Athletics, hit 32. The A’s played in Columbia Park, where it was 340 feet down the left field line and — wait for it — 280 feet down the right field line.

Teams just didn’t hit homers in 1906, or, really, in any season prior to 1920. So even though the White Sox finished 16^th out of 16 in home runs, they were an above-average offense, at least from a run-scoring aspect — they were sixth in the league in runs scored (and fifth in stolen bases).

Chicago was led by one of baseball history’s most underrated players, the Hall-of-Fame shortstop George Davis; he was 35 in 1906 but led the team with a 120 OPS+ and still had a sterling defensive reputation. The pitching staff had a couple of stalwarts, as well: Big Ed Walsh was on the younger side of his career but was one of four White Sox starters to throw over 200 innings with an ERA+ of at least 109. But Walsh was not Chicago’s best starter that year: that would be Guy “Doc” White, who went 18-6 with a league-leading 1.52 ERA.

So, Chicago didn’t hit homers, but they played good defense, ran the bases well, and pitched well.

Not-quite-as-ancient history: 1924 Nationals

This team also maybe shouldn’t count. The 1924 season is technically outside of the Deadball Era, but barely: no team in baseball hit 100 homers, and only three had more than 72. The Yankees led the league with 98, but 46 of those were hit by one guy.

So, while the Nationals did have the fewest homers in the league — just 22 — they were not a bad offensive team. Their leader that season was the Hall of Famer Leon “Goose” Goslin. He put up a .344/.421/.516 batting line (143 OPS+) and did lead the team with 12 home runs, but he also hit 30 doubles and 17 triples and led the American League with 129 RBIs. Another Hall-of-Fame outfielder, Sam Rice, also played for that team; he hit only one homer (of his 2,987 career hits, just 34 were home runs), but had 39 doubles and 14 triples.

But the player who was really carrying the team, along with Goslin, was arguably the greatest pitcher of all time, who, at age 36, was having a last hurrah: Walter Johnson.

In 1924, the Big Train led the AL in almost everything. He won the pitching Triple Crown with 23 wins, a 2.72 ERA (149 ERA+), and 158 strikeouts, and also led the league in FIP, WHIP, hits per nine, strikeouts per nine, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and shutouts.

A couple other starting pitchers played well for the Nationals, particularly Tom Zachary, but they also boasted a unique weapon for the time: an elite bullpen piece. Firpo Marberry threw 195 innings in 50 games (14 of which were starts) and technically led the league in saves (though that stat wasn’t kept track of for several more decades) with a 132 ERA+.

It was the pitching that really stood out for Washington: they led the majors with a 122 ERA+, way ahead of the next-best AL team. But that wasn’t all they did for run prevention: while it’s hard to know for sure, basic fielding metrics suggest they were the best defensive team in the league. Their shortstop, Roger Peckinpaugh, was not only the subject of a good Joey Votto bit but is credited as the 1924 league leader in dWAR by Baseball Reference.

Modern-ish times: 1965 Dodgers

The next team isn’t from the Deadball Era, but it’s from the closest thing this side of the 1920s.

There’s not a ton of mystery here: the 1965 Dodgers had peak Sandy Koufax. They also got good seasons from two other starters, Claude Osteen and another Hall-of-Famer, Don Drysdale. Out of the bullpen, the Dodgers had a major weapon, Ron Perranoski, in a fireman role.

Offensively that Dodger team was dreadful, but they found a way. They had just an 89 OPS+ and no player on the team had more than 12 home runs, but they were by FAR the league leaders in stolen bases: 172 of them, with second place at just 110. The reason for that was the shortstop, Maury Wills. Wills had already won an MVP in 1962, and he finished third in 1965 on the strength of his league-leading 94 steals (more than all but four other teams). Wills was also a good fielder, as were center fielder Willie Davis, second baseman Jim Lefebvre, and catcher John Roseboro.

The Dodgers really didn’t have anyone who could hit, though. Second baseman Jim Gilliam, who stands out among players of his time for having a high walk rate, led the team with a 121 OPS+; he played only 111 games and hit just .280 with only 27 extra-base hits in total, but he had a .374 OBP, and it was a bad offensive era and a bad offensive ballpark.

This is a clear example of a team that was led by its pitching staff. They led in team ERA by a fairly significant margin; that was partially boosted by Dodger Stadium, but they were just behind the league-leading Pirates in ERA+. They were also first in FIP, and that, combined with one of the best defenses in the league, is what put the Dodgers in the World Series. Koufax did the rest.

A painful memory: 1982 Cardinals

I swear I was not expecting this when I started researching this project, but one of the three teams in the last 100 years to win the World Series with the fewest homers is also the only team to ever beat the Brewers in the World Series.

It was a matchup of extremes. The Cards were dead last in homers with just 67, while the Brewers were the most powerful team in baseball and hit 216 homers, 30 more than anyone else. The Brewers had a 121 OPS+, best in the league by a lot, while the Cardinals were at 95.

That 95 OPS+ mark, though, was far from worst in the league — it was tied for 15^th, just below the middle of the pack (remember there were 26 teams then). While the Cardinals didn’t hit homers, they did several other things well: they were second in the league in stolen bases, tied for second in triples, and seventh in walks.

They also played excellent defense, something that’s becoming a trend here. This was Ozzie Smith’s first season in St. Louis. He won a Gold Glove, and Baseball Reference has him as the league’s best defensive player that season. Keith Hernandez also won a Gold Glove at first base, second baseman Tom Herr probably should have, and third baseman Ken Oberkfell could also flash some leather.

Those Cardinals were interesting as far as this exercise goes because unlike the teams we’ve already looked at, they had a good-but-not-great pitching staff. They were third in the league in ERA, but several other teams were close behind; their FIP was a solid but not spectacular 10^th in the league. Among their starting pitchers, only Joaquín Andújar stood out: he really did have a fantastic year and went 15-10 with a 2.47 ERA (148 ERA+) and was seventh in Cy Young voting.

But no one else in the rotation stands out, and while Bruce Sutter did lead the majors in saves (36), he had a middling 2.90 ERA (126 ERA+) and significantly worse FIP (3.63). In those bonkers times, though, when awards voters were fetishizing saves, Sutter finished third — ahead of Andújar! — in CYA voting.

Modern times: 2012 Giants

This is the one that’s kind of hard to believe. The first thought that came to my mind was that this must’ve been one of those Giants teams with a fantastic pitching staff, but that’s not the case — Tim Lincecum, the back-to-back Cy Young winner in 2008 and 2009, had already fallen off a cliff, and the 22-year-old Madison Bumgarner wasn’t yet much of a contributor (at least until the Giants were actually in the World Series). Matt Cain was the team’s best starter, but he’d had other better years.

Sergio Romo had an excellent season out of the bullpen, but the Giants’ closer situation was in flux all year; the team leader in saves was Santiago Casilla, who had a 4.14 FIP and 125 ERA+ while picking up 25 suspenseful saves. (The Giants did make Romo the closer before the postseason, and he was nails in October: he finished his 10-game postseason run with a 0.84 ERA, and he saved three of four games in the Giants’ sweep of Detroit.)

It’s still a little difficult to understand this team’s success, but the most compelling reason is that Buster Posey was 100% deserving of the MVP award he won in 2012. Posey won a batting title and led the majors in OPS+ (171), he hit 39 doubles and 24 homers, and he led the NL with 7.6 WAR via Baseball Reference. But FanGraphs’ framing-influenced numbers think he was even better than that and have him with 9.8 WAR in 2012, the best season ever by a catcher via fWAR.

San Francisco also got a big partial season from Melky Cabrera, who hit .346/.390/.516 in 113 games and would’ve won the batting title had he qualified, but he was suspended for steroid use in August of that season and missed the playoffs. Center fielder Ángel Pagán had the best full offensive season of his career. Pablo Sandoval played pretty well (in only 108 games). Brandon Belt had a 123 OPS+ and 27 doubles but homered only seven times. Marco Scutaro only played 61 games but hit an astronomical .362.

It was a lot of decent offensive players who just didn’t hit homers. San Francisco hit only 103 home runs (the Yankees led the way with 245), but they were 10^th in doubles, first in triples, 10^th in stolen bases, and fifth in batting average. They had several part-time players who performed quite well, so when starters were missing time, the gap between them and their backups was small. They also play in a tough ballpark.

Put all of that together, and despite being last in homers, the Giants were fourth in OPS+. They were a good offensive team; they just didn’t do it the way we’ve gotten used to. Honestly, they were good in a way that should look familiar to fans of the 2025-26 Brewers.

The bad news

So, there are the reasons to be optimistic that even if the Brewers don’t get out of the home run basement, they can still compete.

Now the reason to be pessimistic: recent trends suggest that this might not be possible anymore.

Since 2020, all six World Series winners have finished in the top four in baseball in homers:

2020 Dodgers: 1^st
2021 Braves: 3^rd
2022 Astros: 4^th
2023 Rangers: 4^th
2024 Dodgers: 3^rd
2025 Dodgers: 2^nd

This unsurprisingly aligns with the trends that some fans bemoan in modern times: that players have stopped putting the ball in play to sell out for the home run.

In the past — not that long ago — teams that struggled with the long ball could adapt and find a different approach. But in modern times, when parades of anonymous pitchers with unhittable stuff arrive in waves, we could be reaching a point where that alternative approach is difficult to find, particularly in the postseason as pitcher usage gets more extreme. In those low-scoring playoff environments, when stringing hits together becomes tougher, it helps immensely to have guys who can run into one.

It doesn’t mean it’s impossible, though. The 2025 Brewers were 22^nd in home runs but third in runs scored. The 2026 version of the team is, as of Wednesday, last in homers but seventh in runs scored. But there’s likely to be some difficulty in maintaining that disparity long term, and the postseason question will linger until it doesn’t anymore.

These past examples prove that winning with a low-power team can be done if other aspects of the game are in place. Those other aspects — speed, defense, pitching — are all present in this iteration of the Brewers. They were last year, too. It might just be a matter of things clicking into place at the right time.

Good morning, baseball fans!

It’s an off day for the San Francisco Giants today, so I wanted to touch on a topic that I’ve been thinking about for a while.

At this point, I can only assume that most people familiar with baseball are also at least somewhat familiar with the Savannah Bananas, and the league that was created around them called Banana Ball. If not, it’s a fast-paced version of baseball with an emphasis on entertainment value and fan engagement.

The rules are a bit different, but not so much that a fan of traditional baseball cannot follow the game. There’s an emphasis on trick plays and entertaining the crowds (both at the parks and those watching online). But that doesn’t take away from the on-field product at all, it just adds to it.

I recently had the chance to have a brief conversation with the founder of Banana Ball, Jesse Cole. You may know Cole as the dude that’s always in the yellow tux and top hat, featured in a lot of promotional materials for the league.

During the conversation, I told Cole that I think MLB should absolutely be taking notes from Banana Ball in terms of growing the game. What they are doing to engage new audiences is some of the best work I’ve seen from any league.

What works about it, in my opinion, is that it’s not intended to be gatekept. And what I mean by that is something that I think a lot of women who are sports fans can relate to. You have to prove you belong there, you don’t just get to be a fan because you like the team. I’ve had many experiences where I tell a male acquaintance that I was a Giants fan and I would get presented with a pop quiz to prove it.

And I feel like MLB in general kind of leans into that gatekeeping, whether they realize/intend it or not. Women are grudgingly allowed in the fandom, but not really catered to as a legitimate part of the audience.

Meanwhile, Banana Ball is not only catering to their female fans, they’re making the league as accessible and inviting as possible. And the game play is electric, there is never a dull moment for fans. If you go to a Banana Ball game, you know with absolute certainty that you’re going to have a great time, regardless of how the game plays out.

The same cannot necessarily be said for MLB games. Before the game I went to last month, the last five games I had attended in person were complete shut out losses by the Giants. And I had to pay about $300-400 and travel several hours for the pleasure of sitting through those games with dull, lifeless eyes watching a dull, lifeless team.

The Giants’ past offensive woes aside, with the cost of everything skyrocketing these days, entertainment value is assuredly going to become much more of a factor in terms of people planning to spend money on sports outings.

And listen, I’m not here to say that MLB should have dancing umpires and outfielders doing backflips. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with traditional baseball existing as it is, and having the more exhibition style league exist as a separate thing.

But MLB would be doing themselves a massive disservice to not take notes from how Banana Ball markets to all audiences, and focuses on appealing to a wide demographic of people by creating a fun environment for everyone. It’s a massively successful league that is only growing in popularity and talent.

Just this week, former MLB player Jackie Bradley, Jr. announced that he would be joining the Indianapolis Clowns, a team in the Banana Ball league. They also have the biggest stars of the upcoming Women’s Professional Baseball League, a former Broadway actor, and are so popular that they will have a player on the upcoming season of Dancing with the Stars.

The kind of astronomical growth that Banana Ball has seen over the last few years should absolutely be studied by MLB. They’d be silly not to. Given the game’s decline in popularity, sticking to the traditional route of “playing the game the right way” and policing anything that could remotely be considered fun or an individual’s personality is not going to cut it.

On Monday, I looked at how the pitchers in the upper minors were doing and honestly from a statistical standpoint, it wasn’t great. Mind you, it’s early in the season, and we know pitchers work on things at the expense of the best way they currently know how to get hitters out, and the run environments are pretty rough at both levels. Also, AAA has a different ball than the rest of the minor leagues. These are all reasons the stats are going look worse without being a problem. Lower minors however have good pitching environments, so I expect more pleasing-to-the-eye stats.

Peoria

Brandon Clarke, LHP – 23 (VEB’s #9 prospect)

Clarke was diagnosed with an aneurysm in his left arm and had surgery around the beginning of spring training and it has caused him to be out until at least June. I haven’t heard an update since.

Tanner Franklin, RHP – 22 (VEB’s #13 prospect)

Stats: 8 GS, 27.1 IP, 32 K%, 11.5 BB%, 39.7 GB%, .369 BABIP, 3.29 ERA/3.41 FIP/4.54 xFIP

Franklin is working on two things simultaneously. He is working on developing pitches to add to his fastball and slider while also working on a starting pitcher’s workload. He usually faces between 15 and 18 batters in a start, which even in today’s age, is short of how many outs a starter needs to get regularly. But he was facing between three and nine batters in college, and you don’t want to skip a step.

Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19 (VEB’s #19 prospect)

Stats: 8 GS, 32.2 IP, 33.6 K%, 4.3 BB%, 36.6 GB%, .400 BABIP, 3.31 ERA/3.47 FIP/3.37 xFIP

I am feeling very good about placing Fajardo 9th on my list. He has been unbelievable this season. That is an absurd K/BB ratio. He has 47 strikeouts and 6 walks in 32.2 IP. Just purely scouting the stat line + age, I feel like Fajardo should be a much bigger prospect than he appears to be.

Leonel Sequera, RHP – 20

Stats: 8 GS, 34 IP, 25.9 K%, 9 BB%, 46.6 GB%, .396 BABIP, 10.06 ERA/6.72 FIP/4.28 xFIP

I don’t know what to do with this line. His strikeouts are way up from last year, his walks are about the same, and he’s still getting groundballs. But when hitters make contact, they appear to be going for hits most of the time. Tough to say if that’s unlucky or not in this kind of sample. He has allowed 10 homers already, and he’s only allowed 28 flyballs all year. If you’re wondering, a normal amount of luck and that’s three homers allowed. He’s probably pitching worse than someone who would allow three homers, but 10 certainly feels unlucky.

Nate Dohm, RHP – 23 (acquired in the Ryan Helsley trade)

Stats: 6 GS, 16.2 IP, 24.1 K%, 13.9 BB%, 40.4 GB%, .391 BABIP, 10.26 ERA/5.36 FIP/5.32 xFIP

Well Dohm is for sure pitching poorly, but wow another case of a wildly disproportionate ERA in comparison to advanced stats. Now this is a significantly smaller sample size and can happen when you get blown up in three of your six starts, which unfortunately appear to be his three most recent starts.

Blake Aita, RHP – 23 (acquired in the Willson Contreras trade – with Fajardo)

Stats: 8 GS, 32.1 IP, 26.9 K%, 12.4 BB%, 39.8 GB%, .338 BABIP, 3.90 ERA/5.78 FIP/4.88 xFIP

The return for Sonny Gray has resulted in a completely missing season and one where they haven’t debuted yet, but the early returns for the Contreras trade have been fantastic. Dobbins, the MLB ready piece, looks like an ideal sixth starter, Fajardo has probably catapulted himself into a top 10 team prospect, and Aita – well he’s been fine. Clearly they’re making an effort to get him more strikeouts, which has the side effect of more as well so far. The next step is keep the strikeouts, lower the walks.

Patrick Galle, RHP – 22

Stats (Low A): 5 G, 5.2 IP, 60.9 K%, 21.7 BB%, 33.3 GB%, .000 BABIP, 0.00 ERA/2.03 ERA/2.29 xFIP

High A: 7 G, 10 IP, 23.3 K%, 18.6 BB%, 41.7 GB%, .167 BABIP, 1.80 ERA/4.62 FIP/6.48 xFIP

Oh yeah there was a third part of the Gray trade, which is Galle. He was quite literally unhittable in Low A, throwing 5.2 hitless innings down there. Just three of the 23 hitters he faced even made contact. No wonder they promoted him to High A after just five appearances. But it’s clear Galle doesn’t have a lot of control and High A hitters – well they’re still barely getting hits despite much more contact.

Frank Ellisalt, RHP – 24 (acquired in the Ryan Helsley trade)

Ellisalt suffered some kind of hip injury in February, and I’m not exactly sure how long he’s expected to be out, but he was put on the minor league 60-day injured list, so he certainly won’t pitch the rest of this month at least.

Palm Beach

Ty Van Dyke, RHP – 22 (2025 10th round pick)

Stats: 7 GS, 28.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 44.9 GB%, .218 BABIP, 1.64 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.78 xFIP

Van Dyke has already been promoted to Peoria and he had… a not very good first start there. He threw 3.2 IP, walked three, struck out two, and allowed three runs. Nevermind that though, it was his first start and we have a 10th rounder who the Cardinals promoted him to High A after just 12 starts at that level. I’d call that a success.

Cade Crossland, LHP – 22 (2025 4th round pick)

Stats: 8 GS, 32 IP, 31.4 K%, 18.2 BB%, 35.4 GB%, 4.78 ERA/4.54 FIP/4.93 xFIP

Well, I like the strikeouts. The walks and lack of groundballs aren’t great. A good example of his season is his last two starts. In his most recent start, Crossland threw 5 innings, struck out 7, walked two and allowed 2 ER. The start before, Crossland walked six, struck out six, allowed no hits and yet gave up a run. Every other start seems to involve a lot of walks. It has only really burned him in one start, when he gave up seven runs.

Jack Martinez, RHP – 23 (acquired in Nolan Arenado trade)

Stats: 8 GS, 27.1 IP, 29.8 K%, 12.9 BB%, 27.7 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.95 ERA/4.71 FIP/4.95 xFIP

These stats kind of scream reliever to me. He misses plenty of basses but can’t find the zone a lot and almost nothing is on the ground. I don’t know, it’s a tough profile to make work. But these are his first 8 career pro starts, despite his age, because he was in college last season. Too early to make any declarations.

Jacob Odle, RHP – 22

Stats: 8 (6 GS), 33.6 K%, 10.9 BB%, 51.5 GB%, .324 BABIP, 1.80 ERA/3.29 FIP/3.11 xFIP

Oh hey a genuine breakout. Odle has been a strikeout machine and a groundball machine, which is a pitching coach’s dream. Very tough for an offense to get runs if the pitcher does both of those things. His walks are a little high, but really not that bad and especially not bad with that K rate.

Jake Shelagowski, RHP – 22 (2025 13th rounder)

Stats: 8 G, 26.1 IP, 25.2 K%, 8.4 BB%, 40.3 GB%, .270 BABIP, 4.10 ERA/4.06 FIP/4.68 xFIP

Despite just one game started, Shelagowski appears to currently be a starting pitching prospect, average over 3 innings per game. And he was a starter in his most recent game, so he may have officially moved into the rotation. While his walks haven’t been bad, he has somehow hit seven batters already this season.

Yadiel Batista, LHP – 22

Stats: 6 G, 11.2 IP, 27.1 K%, 2.1 BB%, 42.4 GB%, .303 BABIP, 3.09 ERA/2.93 FIP/3.21 xFIP

Well it’s obviously early in the season, but Batista may be seeing a promotion before the year is up, because 13 strikeouts to one walk is quite the K/BB ratio. He was kind of being treated like a starting pitching prospect a year ago, but his stats weren’t very good, so he seems to be in more of a relief role this year. And it has made a difference. Last year, his K% was just 16.4% and he walked 10.9%. The Cardinals made the right decision.

Ethan Young, RHP – 22

Stats: 8 GS, 27.1 IP, 26.3 K%, 11.3 BB%, 36.7 GB%, .405 BABIP, 7.24 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.55 xFIP

Young hasn’t quite pitched as bad as his ERA. It just so happens when you walk your fair share of batters and your BABIP is .400, you’re going to allow a lot of runs. It’s too early to judge if that BABIP is comically unlucky, or a sign that Young is pretty hittable. Striking out 26% of batters would seem to suggest the BABIP is probably, at least somewhat, unlucky.

Complex

Brian Holiday, RHP – 23

Stats: 3 G (2 GS), 6.2 IP, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 60 GB%, .357 BABIP, 2.70 ERA/4.45 FIP/3.43 xFIP

Holiday is in the beginning stages of his rehab from his Tommy John surgery last year, which caused him to miss the entire season. He was the 3rd round pick of the 2024 draft, and he didn’t get a chance to pitch in the pros, getting hurt before he ever threw a pitch. These are exactly the stats I’d expect of college righty rehabbing in rookie leagues.

Payton Graham, RHP – 22 (2025 7th rounder)

Stats: 3 GS, 9.2 IP, 38.9 K%, 8.3 BB%, 50 GB%, .263 BABIP, 1.86 ERA/2.18 FIP/2.83 xFIP

Graham is also pitching in the pros for the first time after having had Tommy John surgery last season. In Graham’s case though, he had it before he got drafted, and I was actually under the impression that Graham would debut much later. He’s carving up these teenagers like Michael Myers, so I actually expect to see him in Palm Beach pretty soon.

And that’s pretty much it. I wasn’t going to list any rookie league players, because the season just started, but both Holiday and Graham are arguably Low A pitchers at least who are simply pitching for the first time after Tommy John surgery. Graham was healthy and ready to pitch earlier than Holiday, because Graham faced 11 batters and threw 3 innings in his first outing, Holiday only pitched an inning. So just not the order I would have expected there.