Category: MLB

Happy Friday A’s fans!

The A’s are inching closer and closer to the beginning of the season. First come pitchers and catchers reporting, then the position players, then spring games, and before we know it it’ll be Opening Day with the Athletics lining up on the first base line in Toronto listening to the national anthems of both countries.

Before then the A’s still have a small list of things to accomplish. Namely, adding a veteran starting pitcher that’s capable of eating innings would be a massive boost for a rotation short on certainty. There are still plenty of options for the A’s to choose from on the free agent market so it’s fair to assume the Athletics will bring in at least one more arm to help solidify the middle/back of the rotation. Who that will be is anyone’s guess but it’d be a major shock if that name was Zac Gallen. A lot of fans have been clamoring for the A’s to swoop in on a pitcher that has probably lingered on the market a lot longer than expected, but he’s attached to a Qualifying Offer and it’s almost a certainty the A’s wouldn’t surrender a second-round pick to add Gallen. Good news for the A’s is there are other starting options that won’t come with that attached to them and that’s who the front office is probably looking at hardest right now.

Then there’s the bullpen. Unlike with the starters, pretty much all of the quality free agent relievers have signed on with new teams for the coming year, with the A’s failing to land anyone notable other than middle reliever Mark Leiter Jr. earlier in the winter. His addition should help boost the floor of the bullpen but he’s not going to move the needle much for the unit as a whole this year. At this point the A’s will be asking for some of their younger guys to step up for the team. That didn’t work out so well last year but relievers are volatile and maybe the A’s have the best bullpen in the league and we just don’t know it yet (ha).

On the position side, third base is the obvious spot the team could upgrade (and came close to doing just that with a reported Nolan Arenado deal that was nixed at the last moment). The only starting-caliber player on the free agent market left is slugger Eugenio Suarez, and while he has tons of power that’s about all he offers and the A’s may not like that fit. There is always the trade market and with no long-term plan at the position the team could swing a trade for a controllable player such as Isaac Paredes of the division-rival Astros, Brett Baty of the Mets or Nolan Gorman of the Cardinals. The trade front seems the most likely path if the A’s aren’t prepared to let Max Muncy and Darell Hernaiz have the first crack at the hot corner.

After that we get into the real tinkering with the finer spots on the roster. The A’s are one of the teams interested in Miguel Andujar. That means the front office is looking for an upgrade over young outfielder Colby Thomas. That could end up being an actually significant move due to right fielder Lawrence Butler’s massive struggles against left-handed pitching this past season. Even though he’s signed to a massive contract, and the A’s will likely try to let him continue to get at-bats against lefties early in the coming campaign, there could be more outfield at-bats to be had for anyone that comes aboard if he doesn’t show some progress against same-handed pitching.

There’s still time to do at least one of those things and likely two, depending on how aggressive the front office wants to upgrade this roster. Will we see one more move before the team starts getting together, or is what we have what we got going into camp? We’ll be finding out the answer to that question soon enough. Baseball is almost back.

Enjoy your weekend everyone!

A’s Coverage:

• Blogfather Sabotages Own Wins Over Replacement Hip (And A’s Stuff)
• Athletics Community Prospect List: Lin Rockets Up To #4
• Wilson ready to parlay busy offseason into 2026 success
• De Vries (No. 4 overall) leads Athletics trio on Top 100 Prospects list
• After monster stats as rookie, Nick Kurtz has a new number in mind: 162
• Projecting Nick Kurtz after Rookie of the Year campaign
• Analysts say this A’s outfielder could follow Pete Crow-Armstrong’s breakout path
• Two players the A’s can steal from the Colorado Rockies
• A’s prospect Mason Barnett has an atypical arm angle and an old school approach
• Happy 104th, Betty White!
• Polarizing Prospects: #2, Junior Perez

MLB News and Interest:

• 8 teams that could have some big moves up their sleeves
• Mets sign reliever Craig Kimbrel, catcher Austin Barnes to minor league deals
• Astros acquire swingman Kai-Wei Teng in trade with Giants
• Astros designate pitcher JP France for assignment
• Padres sign veteran starter Marco Gonzalez to minors pact
• Angels designate Osvaldo Bido for assignment
• Today in baseball history

Best of X:

New ballpark progress account for those that want to follow the stadium’s progress:

Welcome to the A's Ballpark account! Here's what we've been up to over the past six months at the site in Las Vegas 🤩 pic.twitter.com/dzd0u8PNmt

— A's Ballpark in Las Vegas (@VegasAthletics) January 29, 2026

Will the A’s have a selected closer on Opening Day? Or is it committee approach again:

#Athletics SAVE Leaders in 2025 ⚾️

Mason Miller (20)
Hogan Harris (4)
Jack Perkins (3)
Michael Kelly (2)
Sean Newcomb (2)
Tyler Ferguson (2)

The ‘Closer by Committee’ approach was elite post-Miller (2.99 ERA). Can Kotsay count on that repeated production in 2026? pic.twitter.com/3DYHheNf2L

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) January 29, 2026

Almost certainly won’t be exactly how it ends up but maybe Harris actually will lead the team in saves?

A’s Projected Save Leaders 2026 (ZiPS) https://t.co/hmBcY5vmxGpic.twitter.com/Cl6SdrfmIX

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) January 30, 2026

It’s starting to feel bad to see this happen to him:

Former A's RHP Osvaldo Bido has now been designated for assignment for the 5th time in the last 2 months. First by the A's, then by the Braves, then by the Rays, then by the Marlins, and now by the Angels. Just call him Mr. 41!

— Bill Moriarity – A's Farm (@AthleticsFarm) January 29, 2026

Imagine if the A’s had Skenes (though it’d cost Jacob Wilson):

Good idea for Paul Skenes to add a new weapon given the regression we saw from year 1 (1.96 ERA) to year 2 (1.97 ERA). https://t.co/9pJFhUGdk9

— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) January 29, 2026

Last year, the player I was the most optimistic about bouncing back from a tough season was Maikel Garcia. I didn’t foresee him taking a huge step forward, but you could see heading in 2025 that there were still lots of positives in his batted-ball profile despite the poor results. Garcia worked hard on his swing and made the changes necessary to unlock the potential that was present. Still, it was nice to see the ingredients that some of us thought were there could lead to a more productive season from Garcia than we had seen so far.

I don’t think there is as obvious a candidate for a bounce back in 2026 as there was last year with Garcia, but that’s a pretty lame article to write. Instead, I’m going to test my luck and argue that Jonathan India will be the Maikel Garcia of this year, at least when it comes to hitting well at the plate.

India needs to regain his form at the plate even more than Garcia did last year. Garcia finished with 1.2 fWAR in 2024 despite hitting 31% below league average, thanks to his above-average defense and excellent baserunning. Garcia turned in an excellent defensive and above-average base running campaign in 2025, which combined with his big step forward at the plate led to 5.6 fWAR and his first All-Star selection. India, meanwhile, was below replacement level in the field and running the bases. The second baseman hit just 11% below league average last year, but overall contributed a -0.3 fWAR.

Ideally, India’s defense will improve this season as he focuses solely on second base rather than bouncing between second, third, and left field, but he’s unlikely to become a defensive whiz at his age. So he really needs to produce at an above-average level to justify the Royals tendering him a contract this year. I’m not a Michael Massey believer, but there’s no arguing that Massey would be a better option in the dirt than India. The 29-year-old will also be a free agent at the end of the 2026 season, so there’s even more pressure for him to take a big leap forward with his bat.

There are other soft factors besides India being in a contract year that lead me to betting on India improving his performance. As previously mentioned, the Royals unsuccessfully tried to make India an outfielder last year, which could have had him focusing more on improving in left field instead of fixing his swing. He switched teams and cities, which is plenty to get adjusted to as a person. He went from a bandbox in Great American Ballpark to the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium, which might have gotten into his head as a hitter. India took a 99-mile-per-hour fastball off the helmet at the start of the year last season. Thankfully, the pitch was non-concussive, but I wouldn’t blame India if he was just a touch slower in his reaction time while hitting after that moment.

The two biggest factors for why I like India to bounce back, however, are more analytical and similar to why Garcia seemed like a good candidate to rebound last year. First, he has an excellent eye and makes good contact, which are great and generally repeatable skills to have as a hitter. Second, India had a pretty obvious but seemingly fixable weakness as a hitter last season, which I, as a jabroni, was able to notice when looking through his Statcast data. If I’m able to see what he needs to improve, then the Royals and India are certainly able to see that as well and hopefully have him make the necessary changes to his swing to improve this year.

I wrote an article last May about India’s approach at the plate, and how refreshing it was to see as a Royals fan despite his overall struggles. That approach never left him, even though he didn’t hit well in 2025. India finished second on the team in walks (behind Maikel Garcia,) and his chase rate remained elite in 2025. The second baseman finished in the 97th percentile in chase rate, the best figure on the team.

India also makes excellent contact when he swings the bat. He had an above-average contact percentage, whether he swung at pitches inside the strike zone or outside the strike zone. His 82.5% contact percentage was well above the league-average mark of 76.9%, and placed him in the 78th percentile among all qualified hitters. India was less than one percentage point behind Vinnie Pasquantino in overall contact percentage, which surprised me when I looked through the data. Garcia was ahead of them both and in truly elite company when it comes to making contact, but India’s ability to make contact was still very good. Combine that with an elite batting eye, and you’ve got some quality ingredients to have a good hitter.

So what went wrong last year? In my view, India’s issue was the opposite of Garcia’s in 2024. Garcia hit too many groundballs that year, and needed to raise his launch angle to unlock his potential, which ended up happening. India’s launch angle in 2025, particularly on pitches at the top of the zone, was actually too high. His average launch angle of 17.1 degrees was the highest of his career and was a power hitter’s launch angle. Vinnie Paquantino had a 16.3 degree average launch angle in 2025, while Maikel Garcia had a 9.7 degree average launch angle.

The high launch angle contributed to India hitting too many flyballs and not enough line drives, which brought his BABIP to a career-low .279. India needs to stay on top of pitches at the top of the zone better in 2026; if he can make that change, he should post better hitting numbers this season.

Let’s look at some data from Baseball Savant, which shows us India’s launch angle in 2025 in certain parts of the strike zone:

As a reminder, 10-25 degrees is an ideal launch angle for line drives, while 25-35 degrees is a good launch angle for home run hitters. India had a great line drive swing in the middle third of the plate, but his approach in the upper-middle and upper-inside part of the plate led to a lot of flyballs. That might work as an approach if India had more power, but he’s an on-base guy and needs to focus more on hitting line drives. For India, a launch angle average of 30 and 33 degrees, respectively, is too high, and we would expect the results to be too many easy flyballs. That was the result for India last season, which comes into pretty clear focus when you break down results by their location in the strike zone.

The second baseman hit a fair number of flyballs in the middle of the zone, but still managed to hit enough line drives to get quality results. In the upper part of the zone, however, he was below average on line drive percentage, which is not surprising given his launch angle.

The results of too many flyballs and not enough line drives at the top of the zone were not good for India, which the Baseball Savant charts help make obvious.

India hit way too many pop-ups when he was challenged at the upper part of the strike zone. Popouts are almost always outs, which led to India’s terrible BABIP, batting average and expected batting average in the top third of the zone.

This pop-up issue has not always been a problem for India. His 2024 launch angle up in the zone was more line drive oriented:

Which led to more line drives, which we can see below:

Unsurprisingly, more line drives led to less pop outs, which led to better results as a hitter for India.

I’m not qualified to diagnose what was different about India’s swing this season and what needs to change, but the fact that he’s hit a lot of line drives at the top of the strike zone before tells us that he should be able to do it again. I’m trusting that the Royals’ hitting coaches, along with the second baseman himself, can figure out what he needs to do to flatten his swing out at the top of the strike zone. This should lead to him getting on base more often, which is exactly what the Royals offense needs from him.

India is at a crossroads. If he gets off to a slow start, the calls to replace him with Massey or someone else are going to come quickly and loudly. I’m willing to bet that the Royals and India are able to see what went wrong last season and get things fixed. If the second baseman is not popping out as much this year, the rest of his hitting profile makes him a great candidate to have a much better 2026 season than 2025.

20. Ashly Andujar (197 points, 18 ballots)

Andujar was the headliner of Colorado’s international free agent class in January 2024, earning a $1.7 million bonus as the 18th ranked international prospect at MLB.com as a well-rounded offensive and defensive player with good bat to ball skills who was likely to stay as an up the middle defender.

The 18-year-old 6’1” switch-hitting shortstop spent his first professional season in the Dominican Summer League as expected (since he was one of the youngest players in his signing class), where he was 1.8 years younger than league average. In 229 plate appearances, Andujar fit right in with a .292/.376/.352 line that included ten extra-base hits and 17 steals in 25 attempts, good for a 105 wRC+. On defense, Andujar committed 14 errors in 45 games at shortstop.

The Rockies liked what they saw enough to bring Andujar stateside to the Arizona Complex League in 2025, where he was 2.6 years younger than average, and he looked like a natural on a strong ACL Rockies team. In 217 plate appearances, Andujar again had good contact numbers without much power, hitting .319/.370/.356 with seven doubles and seven steals (which is a 97 wRC+). Andujar walked in 7% of his plate appearances and struck out in 14% of them. Andujar was the primary shortstop for the ACL team, committing 11 errors in 53 games at the position.

Andujar didn’t turn 18 until after the season and indeed didn’t face a pitcher who was younger than him all year. That’s one of the reasons Andujar’s offensive performance, despite a lack of thump, was a very impressive showing in his stateside debut. The trajectory of Andujar’s season was encouraging as well: he went from a .610 OPS in May to .716 in June and .860 in July.

Here is a recent slo-mo look at Andujar’s left-handed swing:

Here is some video of Andujar before he signed with the Rockies, including some looks at him at shortstop and his swing from both sides of the plate:

Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs grades Andujar as a 40+ FV prospect, 15th in the system, with a plus run grade and a 55 future hit and field tool evaluation:

Amateur Andujar was billed as a speedy, contact-oriented infielder who should be a long-term shortstop fit, and that remains true. He only K’d 13.5% of the time last year and slashed .291/.376/.352. He is still very skinny and frail looking, but at just 17, that’s fine. The foundation of a good baseball player is here, now Andujar needs to layer on strength. It might take a few years yet, but once he does that, he should break out.

MLB Pipeline ranks Andujar 28th in the system as a 40 FV player, giving him a 55 on his arm and fielding ability:

One of the youngest players in the class who didn’t turn 17 until late July, Andujar certainly has time to figure things out. He starts out with a pretty good feel for hitting from both sides of the plate. He can find the barrel routinely and makes a ton of contact. He struck out just 13.5 percent of the time, isn’t afraid to hit behind in the count and even drew some walks. He needs to add strength so he can impact the ball more, even if power isn’t ever a big part of his game after slugging .352 in his debut.

More strength should also augment Andujar’s speed. He likes to run despite having just average speed at present and he moves well defensively at shortstop. He has good hands and an arm that could develop into a plus for him at the premium position. His ability to slow the game down gives him an even better overall defensive package and something he can lean on to help his team win if his bat is slow to develop.

Keith Law of the Athletic wrote this about Andujar last February:

Shortstop Ashly Andujar signed for a $1.7 million bonus last January for his potential as a switch-hitter with plus defense at a tough position. He hit .291/.376/.352 in the DSL with just a 14 percent strikeout rate, with solid swings that generate line drives and should eventually lead to doubles power. He could move quickly to Low A if this plate discipline is real.

As an up-the-middle player who was a seven-figure international signee, Andujar is joining a recent tradition of PuRPs, including Adael Amador and Robert Calaz. Also fitting that category is former PuRP Dyan Jorge, whose all-around game except a lack of power is reminiscent of Andujar’s batting lines so far. Then again, Jorge didn’t even sign until he was 19 and didn’t make it to the ACL until he was 20, so Andujar has more runway ahead of him.

Andujar should be one of the youngest players in Low-A in 2026 and we’ll see if another offseason in the strength and conditioning program bears fruit for his power. He’s a long ways away, but his athleticism provides a good foundation for him as a potential regular, so long as he doesn’t end up a Punch-and-Judy hitter. The potential and performance so far were enough for me to rank Andujar 20th on my list in the 40 FV tier.

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Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers formally introduced new pitcher MacKenzie Gore yesterday.

Kennedi Landry says the Rangers hope Gore can “level up” in Arlington.

Evan Grant asks if adding another pitcher to this offense starved roster will be enough to compete in 2026.

Kevin Sherrington says the Gore deal was too logical to pass up for the Rangers.

Jeff Wilson ponders where the Rangers rotation ranks with the new addition.

In other news the Rangers announced 10 NRIs they’ll be taking to Arizona.

And Chris Young discusses when he envisions Sebastian Walcott cracking the major league roster.

That’s all for this morning. Happy Friday!

At the start of the offseason, we looked at the initial payroll projection for 2026. While not much has changed to the roster since then, there have been some adjustments. As the end of January approaches, and pitchers and catchers are set to report in just 13 days, the starting payroll is getting closer to a set amount. Let’s take a look at what has changed since then. (If you want to review the original projection from the end of October, you can find that post here.)

Here are some reminders for the projection.

• The majority of these numbers are from Spotrac, which has estimated payroll numbers for all MLB teams.
• Per the CBA, the minimum salary for players in 2026 is $780,000. Any pre-arbitration player has this salary listed by default. These salaries can be slightly different for each player, but not by a significant amount.
• This is not a roster projection for 2026. Some players on this list are currently in the organization but may be planned for a minor league role. This is just in place to show what a minimum commitment would be. Minimum salaries can be swapped out for any other minimum salary player that would be in the minors.
• While I do not think the Brewers will break camp with 14 position players and 12 pitchers, that is how it is set up below due to current commitments. That will change before the season.
• In the initial payroll for 2026, I included the declined options after the 2025 season. Spotrac has moved those numbers to the 2025 season, so I have also adjusted for that to keep the numbers consistent.
• The final projected payroll for 2025 was $156,266,827, per Spotrac. That was 18th in MLB.

First, here are the projections for the initial roster.

Position Players		Bench Players
C – William Contreras	$9,900,000*	C – Jeferson Quero	$780,000
1B – Andrew Vaughn	$7,650,000	1B – Jake Bauers	$2,700,000
2B – Brice Turang	$4,150,000	UT – Andruw Monasterio	$780,000
3B – Caleb Durbin	$780,000	OF – Garrett Mitchell	$950,000
SS – Joey Ortiz	$780,000	OF – Akil Baddoo	$1,250,000
LF – Jackson Chourio	$7,000,000
CF – Blake Perkins	$780,000
RF – Sal Frelick	$780,000
DH – Christian Yelich	$26,000,000
Total	$57,820,000	Total	$6,460,000

Starting Pitchers		Relief Pitchers
Brandon Woodruff	$22,025,000	Aaron Ashby	$5,700,000
Quinn Priester	$780,000	Trevor Megill	$4,700,000
Jacob Misiorowski	$780,000	Angel Zerpa	$1,095,000
Chad Patrick	$780,000	Abner Uribe	$780,000
Logan Henderson	$780,000	Jared Koenig	$780,000
		Grant Anderson	$780,000
		DL Hall	$780,000
Total	$25,145,000	Total	$14,615,000

Summary	Amount
Position Players	$57,820,000
Bench Players	$6,460,000
Starting Pitchers	$25,145,000
Relief Pitchers	$14,615,000
Initial Total for 2026	$104,040,000

Here’s a summary of what has changed since the original payroll:

• Brandon Woodruff accepted his qualifying offer. That added his $22.025 million salary into the payroll. Even though Woodruff accepted the offer, he will also receive the buyout for his option being declined (that is factored into 2025 payroll).
• William Contreras is the one player who still has a pending arbitration decision. Currently, he is estimated at $9.9 million, which is what he filed for. The Brewers filed for an $8.55 million salary. A deal could still happen before the hearing, but the salary will be somewhere between those two numbers.
• Every other player that is in an arbitration year agreed to their salary. The contract amounts have been added above.
• The following players have been removed: Freddy Peralta, Isaac Collins, Nick Mears
• The following players have been added: Brandon Woodruff, Ángel Zerpa, Akil Baddoo

The total above is just the initial total based on the projected active roster. However, there’s still more money to factor in to the payroll. If you compare it to the active roster at the end of the season, the Brewers only had just over $84 million of their $156 million total on the active roster. Here’s where the rest of the payroll came from. (Some rounding is used in the table, so actual amounts will be slightly different.)

Source	Amount
Injured List (End of Season)	$15,800,000
Traded/Released Players (Not on roster at end of season)	$15,200,000
Declined Options	$16,600,000
Deferred Salaries	$2,800,000
Player Benefits	$18,000,000
Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool	$1,666,666
Minor-League Contracts	$2,700,000
Total	$72,766,666

Some of those numbers will be in the 2026 payroll as well. Specifically, the last four numbers will be very similar to 2025. The first three will be different in 2026. For the moment, there will not be any options to consider after the 2026 season, so that number can be ignored.

As for the other two numbers, it’s difficult to include a solid projection. Those numbers can easily be inflated by circumstances during the season. For example, if we looked at the injured list at the end of 2024, that was highly inflated due to Yelich finishing the season on it. If we go back to 2022, the traded/release player number was significantly higher because Lorenzo Cain’s final year salary was included. That would also result in the active payroll having a lower figure due to the changes in players, but those numbers end up in the IL or traded/released categories instead.

There’s one other factor that Spotrac considers in their payroll estimate. Even though the initial projection factors in 26 players, Spotrac adds in the payroll for 12 additional pre-arbitration players. Considering the Brewers were paying for seven IL players and eight players not on the team anymore (not counting two who were paid under $10,000), adding in 12 more players is a reasonable estimate. Those 12 players would make $9.36 million total. (Spotrac uses a slightly higher $820,000 estimate for pre-arbitration players, but the CBA minimum is at $780,000.)

What we can expect for 2026 is similar to the 2025 payroll. In terms of cash payroll, the total will at most be around that $156 million mark. The Brewers have been in the $140-$156 million range in recent years and that likely will not change. With that in mind, here’s a comprehensive look at the estimated payroll for 2026.

Source	Amount
Initial Projected Roster	$104,040,000
Additional Roster Players	$9,360,000
Deferred Salaries	$2,800,000
Player Benefits	$18,000,000
Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool	$1,666,666
Minor-League Contracts	$2,700,000
Initial Payroll Projection	$138,566,666

That leaves $17.4 million in potential additional payroll space. That extra space would be needed for the team to make in-season moves. It gives them the ability to take on money in contracts for players acquired by trade. It would also factor in contracts for players who make the team that are on minor league contracts (such as the recently signed Reese McGuire). It also gives them the opportunity to bring in a low-cost contract in spring training if the team has a sudden need.

With the overall quiet offseason for the Brewers, the payroll appears to be heading to a similar point in 2026. Any space remaining will be needed for in-season flexibility. There is potential for a smaller signing, since the team gained $7 million in space after trading Peralta. However, the team may be content to just save that money for now. If that’s the case, what we’re looking at will be close to the current spending plan for next season.

For the second straight and now the fifth time, a player has topped the ballot in his first try (and technically, No. 1 overall voted prospect Braden Montgomery sorta doesn’t count). But this round, Phil Fox has joined Mathias LaCombe, Ky Bush and Zach Franklin as first-timers and Vote winners all in one sweep. Fox earned 12 of 50 (24%) votes:

Also like Franklin’s before him, this is Fox’s first time on our ballot.

Past No. 33s in the SSS Top Prospect Vote
2025 Voting lasted only 31 rounds
2024 Tanner McDougal (25%)
2023 Voting lasted only 24 rounds
2022 Voting lasted only 17 rounds
2021 Seby Zavala (28%)
2020 Matt Foster (55%)
2019 Lenyn Sosa (38%)
2018 Evan Skoug (35%)

Franklin became just the third righty and fourth relief pitcher (and third still with the club, with Peyton Pallette’s loss to Cleveland) to advance:

For this round, shortstop Ryan Burrowes joins the fun.

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South Side Sox Top-Voted White Sox Prospects for 2026

1. Braden Mongomery — 59% (Smith 17%, Bonemer 9%, Schultz 7%, Antonacci 3%, Adams/Carlson/McDougal 2%, Fauske/Oppor 0%)
2. Hagen Smith — 40% (Bonemer 28%, Schultz 18%, McDougal 5%, Antonacci 4%, Carlson 3%, Bergolla/Oppor 1%, Adams/Fauske 0%)
3. Caleb Bonemer — 47% (Schultz 34%, Antonacci 10%, Carlson/McDougal 4%, Bergolla 2%, Adams/Fauske/Oppor/Perez 0%)
4. Noah Schultz — 49% (Antonacci 25%, Carlson 11%, McDougal 7%, Adams/Bergolla/Oppor 2%, Perez 1%, Fauske/Lodise 0%)
5. Sam Antonacci — 41% (Carlson 25%, McDougal 20%, Bergolla/Perez 4%, Oppor 3%, Adams 2%, Fauske 1%, Diaz/Lodise 0%)
6. Tanner McDougal — 39% (Carlson 36%, Bergolla 7%, Adams 6%, Pallette 5%, Fauske 3%, Oppor 2%, Lodise 1%, Diaz/Perez 0%)
7. Billy Carlson — 52% (Adams 18%, Oppor 12%, Bergolla 9%, Fauske 5%, Lodise/Pallette/Wolkow 2%, Diaz/Perez 0%)
8. Christian Oppor — 24% (Murphy 20%, Adams/Fauske 16%, Wolkow 10%, Bergolla 9%, Lodise/Pallette/Perez 1%, Diaz 0%)
9. Shane Murphy — 34% (Adams 20%, Wolkow 13%, Fauske 16%, Bergolla 9%, Palisch 4%, Lodise/Pallette/Perez 1%, Diaz 0%)
10. Mason Adams — 43% (Wolkow 22%, Bergolla 11%, Fauske/Pallette 10%, Lodise/Palisch/Perez 2%, Diaz/Hodge 0%)
11. Jaden Fauske — 24.0% (Perez 23.5%, Hodge 13.4%, Bergolla 12.9%, Wolkow 8%, Pallette 5%, Diaz/Gonzalez/Lodise/Palisch 3%)
12. Jeral Perez — 20% (Umberger 15%, Wolkow 13%, Hodge 12.3%, Palisch 11.9%, Bergolla 11.4%, Lodise 7.3%, Pallette 6.9%, Diaz 2%, Gonzalez 1%)
13. Grant Umberger — 28% (Palisch 19%, Wolkow 13%, Bergolla 12%, Hodge 11%, Lodise 10%, Pallette 4%, Diaz 3%, Gonzalez/Larson 1%)
14. Mathias LaCombe — 41% (Bergolla 19%, Wolkow 17%, Pallette 7%, Palisch 6%, Gonzalez 4%, Hodge/Lodise 2%, Diaz/Larson 1%)
15. William Bergolla — 35% (Wolkow 20%, Pallette/Palisch 13%, Larson 6%, Diaz/Gordon/Lodise 4%, Hodge 2%, Gonzalez 0%)
16. George Wolkow — 38% (Pallette 22%, Palisch 12%, Gordon 8%, Lodise 6%, Gonzalez 5%, Batista/Diaz/Larson 3%, Hodge 0%)
17. Peyton Pallette — 38% (Palisch 13%, Lodise 11%, Gordon/Larson 10%, Gonzalez 8%, Batista 5%, Diaz 3%, Hodge/Mogollón 2%)
18. Blake Larson — 21% (Lodise 18%, J. Gonzalez/Palisch 15%, C. Gonzalez 11%, Gordon 10%, Batista 5%, Mogollón 3%, Hodge 2%, Diaz 0%)
19. Ky Bush — 24% (Palisch 19%, C. Gonzalez/Lodise 16%, J. Gonzalez 8%, Gordon/Batista 6%, Mogollón 3%, Diaz 2%, Hodge 0%)
20. Jake Palisch — 26% (Paez 21%, Lodise 19%, J. Gonzalez 13%, C. Gonzalez/Gordon 8%, Batista/Hodge/Mogollón 2%, Diaz 0%)
21. Jedixson Paez — 45% (Nishida 20%, Gordon 14%, C. Gonzalez/Lodise 8%, J. Gonzalez 4%, Mogollón 2%, Batista/Diaz/Hodge 0%)
22. Christian Gonzalez — 22% (Nishida 18%, Gordon 17%, J. Gonzalez 15%, Lodise 10%, Hodge 8%, Batista 5%, Mogollón 3%, Diaz 2%, Ziehl 0%)
23. Rikuu Nishida — 30% (Gordon 18%, J. Gonzalez 15%, Gowens 10%, Lodise 8%, Batista 7%, Hodge/Mogollón/Ziehl 3%, Diaz 2%)
24. Kyle Lodise — 23% (J. Gonzalez/Gowens 18%, Gordon 14%, Batista/Carela 7%, Diaz/Hodge/Mogollón/Ziehl 4%)
25. Jacob Gonzalez— 26% (Gowens 21%, Gordon 20%, Schweitzer 11%, Batista 6%, Mogollón/Ziehl 5%, Hodge 3%, Carela/Diaz 2%)
26. Riley Gowens — 29% (Zavala 21%, Carela 13%, Gordon 11%, Batista 7%, 11%, Ziehl 5%, Diaz/Hodge/Mogollón/Schweitzer 4%)
27. Samuel Zavala — 33% (Carela/Gordon 15%, Alcala 10%, Ziehl 8%, Batista/Schweitzer 5%, Diaz/Hodge/Mogollón 3%)
28. Lucas Gordon — 36% (Carela 19%, Alcala/Batista/Schweitzer 9%, Mogollón/Ziehl 5%, Diaz/Hodge 3%, Albertus 2%)
29. Juan Carela — 28% (Diaz/Hodge 13%, Batista 11%, Alcala 9%, Iriarte/Schweitzer 7%, Albertus/Mogollón/Ziehl 4%)
30. Landon Hodge — 19% (Batista 15%, Iriarte 13%, Alcala/Diaz/Ziehl 10%, Albertus/Schweitzer 8%, Mogollón 6%, Rodriguez 2%)
31. Gage Ziehl — 19% (Albertus 17%, Alcala/Galanie 12%, Iriarte 9%, Batista/Diaz/Rodriguez/Schweitzer 7%, Mogollón 3%)
32. Zach Franklin — 38% (Alcala 15%, Batista 13%, Albertus/Diaz/Schweitzer 8%, Galanie/Iriarte/Mogollón/Rodriguez 3%)
33. Phil Fox — 24% (Alcala 16%, Batista/Galanie 12%, Iriarte/Schweitzer 10%, Albertus/Diaz 6%, Mogollón/Rodriguez 2%)

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Alexander Albertus
Third Baseman
Age 21
2025 high level Arizona Complex League (Rookie)
Age relative to high level +0.4 years
Overall 2025 stats 8 games ▪️ 0 HR ▪️ 2 RBI ▪️ .333/.520/.444 ▪️ 3-of-3 (100.0%) SB ▪️ 6 BB ▪️ 3 K ▪️ 1.000 FLD%▪️ 0.3 WAR

What can you say further about Albertus? He seems to have great tools but an uncanny ability to stay off of the field (just eight games in a season-plus in the White Sox system). In 2025, he was assigned to Kannapolis but was … wait for it … injured. He lasted just eight games of ACL rehab before hitting the IL-60 again.

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Marcelo Alcala
Center Fielder
Age 20
2025 high level ACL (Rookie)
Age relative to high level -0.6 years
Overall 2025 stats 42 games ▪️ 7 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .233/.325/.479 ▪️ 14-of-15 (93.3%) SB ▪️ 14 BB ▪️ 63 K ▪️ .935 FLD%▪️ 1.2 WAR

Alcala is a talent to dream on. Though still raw, he flashed power that we simply do not see in the White Sox system, especially when combined with the raw speed that can swipe bases at a 90%+ rate. Defense and bat discipline are issues to be sure, but imagine what additional outfield reps, AZ batting cage time, and even some training on the bases could do.

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Aldrin Batista
Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age 22
2025 SSS Prospect Vote ranking 6
2025 high level Winston-Salem (High-A)
Age relative to high level -1.2 years
Overall 2025 stats 2-0 ▪️ 7 games (2 starts) ▪️ 14 IP ▪️ 5.79 ERA ▪️ 17 K ▪️ 7 BB ▪️ 1.429 WHIP ▪️-1.2 WAR

Batista was our No. 6-voted player in last year’s poll and top righthander — and then disaster struck, as he started the third Dash game of the season on April 6 and then was out more than four months with a stress fracture in his right (pitching) elbow. His return in late August was iffy, with three poor relief appearances of five. But he ended the season with a scoreless (two-inning) “opener” start, which hopefully reverses the curse for 2026.

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Ryan Burrowes
Second Baseman
Age 21
2024 SSS Prospect Vote ranking 23
2025 SSS Prospect Vote ranking N/R
2025 high level Winston-Salem (High-A)
Age relative to high level -2.0 years
Overall 2025 stats (Low-A/High-A) 111 games ▪️ 6 HR ▪️ 39 RBI ▪️ .255/.342/.355 ▪️ 47-of-53 (88.7%) SB ▪️ 39 BB ▪️ 110 K ▪️ .976 FLD%▪️ 1.1 WAR

It feels like Burrowes has been around forever, and he’s still only 21 years old (and playing at a level significantly younger than his age). His first taste of High-A ball went pretty well, as his baserunning seems to have no trouble translating at any level. The hit tool is solid, although he continues to struggle with contact — a no-no for a speed-over-power guy.

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Reudis Diaz
Right-handed relief pitcher
Age 20
2025 high level ACL (Rookie)
Age relative to high level -2.1 years
Overall 2025 stats 1-1 ▪️ 1 SV▪️ 21 games (4 finishes) ▪️ 27 2/3 IP ▪️ 2.28.ERA ▪️ 18 K ▪️ 8 BB ▪️ 1.084 WHIP ▪️1.2 WAR

Who? You’re forgiven for being unfamiliar with an extremely young arm who hasn’t yet gotten out of rookie ball, but our No. 77 prospect a year ago (then a starter, repeating the DSL and killing it) made a successful adjustment Stateside. He’ll return to starting in 2026, likely getting his feet wet in Arizona and getting a promotion to Low-A in the second half of the season.

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Ryan Galanie
First Baseman
Age 25
2025 high level Birmingham (AA)
Age relative to high level +1.3 years
Overall 2025 stats (High-A/AA) 119 games ▪️ 11 HR ▪️ 94 RBI ▪️ .276/.327/.422 ▪️ 14-of-17 (82.4%) SB ▪️ 35 BB ▪️ 79 K ▪️ .995 FLD%▪️ 1.1 WAR

It’s been a slow but steady climb for this 13th-rounder in 2023. The good news here is, with the caveat that Galanie has always competed older than his level, Galanie has found some footing. While his power/slugging numbers are merely OK, he drove in 94 runs in 2025. He disappeared a bit in the playoffs for Birmingham (just four hits in six games, with five walks as well) but started every game in the march to a second consecutive Southern League title for the Barons.

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Jairo Iriarte
Right-Handed Relief Pitcher
Age 24
2025 SSS Top Prospect Vote Ranking 19
2025 high level Charlotte (AAA)
Age relative to high level -4.3 years
Overall 2025 stats (Rookie/AAA) 3-3▪️ 1 SV ▪️ 37 games (5 starts, 9 finishes) ▪️ 48 IP ▪️ 7.13 ERA ▪️ 50 K ▪️ 37 BB ▪️ 1.917 WHIP ▪️ -0.8 WAR

The 2025 season was an utter disaster for Iriarte, who went from prospective South Side rotation member to lost in space. The righty, who made his brief debut in the majors in 2024, both lost the plate and misplaced his strikeout power. The Brian Bannister Pitching Lab has its work cut out here, for sure.

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Javier Mogollón
Shortstop
Age 20
2025 high level Kannapolis (Low-A)
Age relative to high level -1.4 years
Overall 2025 stats 51 games ▪️ 5 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .220/.347/.387 ▪️ 15-of-21 (71.4%) SB ▪️ 30 BB ▪️ 56 K ▪️ .971 FLD%▪️ 1.0 WAR

An ascending star just one year ago, we have to tap the breaks a bit on Mogollón after a lackluster first full season of minors ball. While still young for his level and managing to keep his head above water in a new league every season of his career, Mogollón’s undeniable hitting in Rookie ball fell off significantly with the Cannon Ballers. However, how much of that was due to battling injury is undetermined, as Mogollón was shelved for what turned out to be the season on July 2.

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Yobal Rodriguez
Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age18
2025 high levelDSL White Sox (Rookie)
Age relative to high level -1.5 years
Overall 2025 stats0-3 ▪️ 13 games (10 starts) ▪️ 30 1/3 IP ▪️2.97 ERA ▪️ 33 K ▪️ 13 BB ▪️ 1.022 WHIP ▪️ 1.2 WAR

Rodriguez is a rare DSL pitcher, not for his relatively light innings load, but as a primary starter — and at just 17 years old (Yobal turns 18 on February 9). Inasmuch as it’s tough to project anyone out of the DSL, especially pitchers, you could hardly have hoped for more from him in his pro debut.

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Tyler Schweitzer
Left-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age25
2025 high levelCharlotte (AAA)
Age relative to high level -3.3 years
Overall 2025 stats (AA/AAA) 8-2 ▪️ 27 games (10 starts) ▪️ 99 2/3 IP ▪️4.61 ERA ▪️ 81 K ▪️ 41 BB ▪️ 1.344 WHIP ▪️ 0.8 WAR

Schweitzer relieved in most of his games in 2025, but he remains a starter in our eyes given he was consistently paired with Tanner McDougal in Birmingham Barons starts. And in Birmingham, Schweitzer was divine: 1.27 ERA that included a long scoreless streak leading to a Charlotte promotion, 0.946 WHIP. However, everything the southpaw did as a Baron, he undid as a Knight (7.92 ERA, 1.740 ERA). While other gilded arms (Drew Thorpe, Grant Taylor) get to skip Charlotte entirely, Schweitzer was not so lucky. And that luck could prevent him from ever seeing the majors.

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Past South Side Sox Prospect votes

• Here is how 2018 wrangled out — all 42 picks. Also, here is an archive of every article in the 2018 series.
• Here is how 2019 came together, all 50 picks, and the archive as well.
• Now 2020, with the archive.
• Here is the 2021 wrap-up of just 35 picks due to flagging participation, along with the full archive.
• Here is the 2022 link to the 27-pick wrap, along with the full archive.
• Round 24 of voting was the last of 2023 (we did not do an actual wrap for the voting, but Jordan Sprinkle ended up being our final pick), and the full archive.
• In 2024 Abraham Núñez was our 34th pick to end the series, and here is the wrap-up post and full archive of each profile.
• And last year, we did 31 picks, ending with Eric Adler. Here is the wrap and full stream, of every article.

In Economics, there is a fairly basic concept known as the law of marginal utility. We usually explain this to students through the use of pizza. Each slice of pizza is a little less satisfying than the one before it. This lesson is usually taught at a similar time as the law of diminishing returns. They are similar concepts and both have a ton of relevance for big league baseball teams.

One of the more infamous lines from “Blazing Saddles” was when Mel Brooks character (the governor) said, “we gotta do something to save our phony baloney jobs!” I imagine the job of general manager is the same in many instances. Executives want to look like they are actually doing something. It comes down to being able to explain yourself when things don’t work. If you can point to moves that were popular at the time then you can plausibly deny responsibility for the failure.

Of course, this is organizational groupthink we are describing. This has little to do necessarily with what Dana Brown or Jim Crane might be thinking. It is an industry wide issue. We can illustrate this psychological dilemma with the Astros backup catcher situation. The Astros need a backup catcher now that Victor Caratini is in Minnesota. The temptation is to panic and go out and sign the biggest name available so you can show the fans you are doing something.

Some of this is about the name itself. Fans in general feel better about players they have heard of. We can dog Jeff Bagwell for hours, but he is generally right about casuals. Most people know the numbers on the back of the baseball card. Some of it is an overall perception. If Jim Crane says he is willing to spend up to the CBT then fans feel better if the team spends all of those available funds. That is true whether all of those funds are actually dedicated to making the team better or not.

The Astros currently have two internal options at backup. Cesar Salazar has come up for brief cups of coffee in each of the past two seasons. Framber Valdez notwithstanding, most pitchers enjoy pitching to him and he comes in with high marks as a receiver. The minor league offensive numbers are not sparkling, but he is slated to be a backup catcher and those players may make 40 starts in a typical season.

The club also signed Carlos Perez to what we commonly refer to as an NRI. That stands for non-roster invitee. It is officially a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. He has spent parts of five seasons with the Angels and Athletics, but has never done anything more than perform as a backup at the big league level. However, he has seen a power uptick since 2021 where he has hit 27 or more home runs four different times.

Those players have little in their track records to compare with Jonah Heim and Christian Vazquez historically. Thus, we get to the Bagwell theory. Those numbers have relevance only insofar as they are likely to be repeated. Thus, we get to the crux of the law of marginal utility. A player’s extra income must justify additional production. If you are paying more money for the same thing then you are overpaying. In a universe where resources are limited, you cannot afford to pay extra for the same thing. Below are the ZIPS DC projections for the four catchers mentioned. ZIPS DC stands for ZIPS Depth Chart. They include the same percentage stats, but estimate playing time based who is likely to be on the team’s depth chart.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	FWAR
Cesar Salazar	.213	.312	.325	.288	0.7
Carlos Perez	.218	.288	.395	.297	0.6
Jonah Heim	.221	.280	.342	.274	0.6
Christian Vazquez	.226	.281	.315	.265	0.7

Most of you are familiar with the basic stats here, but you may be unfamiliar with weighted on base average (wOBA). Essentially, it takes everything a hitter does and converts into a number that approximates OBP. Therefore, it can be interpreted the same way. The league average tends to hover between .320 and .33o depending on the season. So, none of these guys are good offensive players. For instance, Yainer Diaz is projected to have a .317 wOBA according to ZIPS. So, none of these catchers are going to seriously challenge Yainer for playing time.

However, all of these catchers have roughly the same value because of differences in defensive skills. In a vacuum, signing either Heim or Vazquez is defensible based on their projected overall value. According to Fangraphs, the current going rate for wins is somewhere between eight and nine million dollars. Obviously, this is theoretical in nature since many players are pre-arbitration players making pennies on the dollar, but in free agency, these rates normally average out fairly well.

So, paying a Heim or a Vazquez in the neighborhood five million or less seems reasonable on its face. If the Astros signed such a contract with one of those two then it would be defensible on that level. Yet, when you already have two catchers projected to produce the same value it makes less sense. So, each additional catcher is like that additional slice of pizza. It is just less useful than the one before it.

Depending on the source, the Astros have approximately nine million left to spend under the CBT. That might not be enough for anything really useful, but if you shed some salary here or there you could afford an extra position player or starting pitcher. That money gets eaten away when you add in a catcher that might not be any better than the guys you already have.

Organizations limit themselves all the time by chasing veterans on the margins. There is some positive utility there. Veterans can help stabilize a clubhouse under the right circumstances, and there might be the slightest of bumps at the gate. Yet, when resources are finite, the teams that do the best are the ones that resist that temptation. They either get veterans for far underneath their going rate or they rely on younger players. The Astros probably will go that direction at catcher.

ZiPS' projected standings for the 2026 MLB season have the Yankees fighting for a playoff spot.

The projections, via Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs, "are the result of a million simulations."

Szymborski explains:

"These are median standings, meaning that they represent every team’s 50th-percentile projection. These have a tighter range than the actual standings because we don’t expect every team to hit their 50th-percentile projection, but rather for three teams, on average, to beat their 90th-percentile projection, six to beat their 80th-percentile projection, and so on."

In other words, the win totals in the projections skew a bit low. 

Now, the projections...

• The Yankees finish with a record of 87-75, putting them in fourth place in the AL East (behind the 90-72 Blue Jays, 90-72 Red Sox, and 88-74 Orioles)
• That 87-75 record has the Yanks tied for the fifth-best record in the AL (behind the Jays, Red Sox, O's, and 88-74 Mariners) and tied for the eighth-best record in MLB (also behind the Dodgers, Phillies, and Mets)
• In this scenario, the Yankees would be tied for the third Wild Card in the AL with the 87-75 Astros
• The other projected AL playoff teams are the Jays, Red Sox, O's, Tigers (83-79, AL Central winner) and M's (AL West winner)
• The Yankees' World Series win percentage is 5.4, which is the eighth-highest in MLB.

On the Yankees and the AL East, Szymborski writes:

"ZiPS doesn’t see the AL East all that differently from how it did last preseason, though it does anticipate a slightly larger separation at the top of the division, with the Jays and Red Sox tied for first, and the Orioles and Yankees falling a couple of games back." 

Barring a late bold move, the Yanks will be mostly running it back in 2026.

Their biggest move this offseason was to re-sign Cody Bellinger. Beyond that, Trent Grisham accepted the QO to return. New York also traded with the Marlins for starting pitcher Ryan Weathers, and allowed both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to leave via free agency.

The San Diego Padres have needs, but to this point in the offseason, they have not been addressed. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball talks about the need for the Padres to address the first base position and includes a possible trade candidate in Nick Castellanos as well as a free agent candidate that San Diego fans are very familiar with in Luis Arraez. There has been some talk about the Padres possibly trading for a player like CJ Abrams from the Washington Nationals which would likely result in Jake Cronenworth moving back to first base. San Diego has options and there are other trade possibilities and free agents available for the Padres to address their needs, but with Spring Training less than two weeks away, they should address the vacancy sooner than later.

Padres News:

• Ramon Laureano was added to the San Diego roster at the 2025 trade deadline and a big reason he was added by the Padres is his $6.5 million club option for the 2026 season. With Laureano in the starting lineup, San Diego will not have to have a committee of players like Jason Heywayd, Connor Joe and Brandon Lockridge to handle one position on the roster. Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball reminds fans that Laureano should not be overlooked and expects him to have a solid year with a full season in San Diego. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune also focuses on Laureano for his Padres roster review adding further insight as to what Padres fans can expect from the left fielder in 2026.
• The Padres and left-hander Marco Gonzales reached a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. If he makes the roster, Gonzalez would make $1.5 million and could earn another $1 million in incentives.
• Keith Law of The Athletic listed catcher Ethan Salas as the No. 70 prospect on his top 100 list earlier in the week. He released his organizational rankings Thursday and the Padres farm system was 30^th in MLB.
• Late Monday it was reported the Padres had “checked in” on free agent pitcher Zac Gallen formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors reported that Jon Heyman said the Padres are longshots for Gallen.

Baseball News:

• The Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants agreed to a trade to send Kai-Wei Teng to Houston for minor league catcher Jancel Villarroel. The Astros also added former Padres reliever Tom Cosgrove on a minor league deal.
• The Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees agreed to a trade that sent reliever Jayvien Sandridge to Los Angeles for cash considerations.
• It was announced Thursday that Ronald Acuna Jr., Maikel Garcia, Jackson Chourio and Wilyer Abreu were all added to the roster for the Venezuela World Baseball Classic team.  

Like a phoenix from the ashes, just like Daniel Espino the day before, George Valera returns to the Covering the Corner prospect rankings after not being included last year. Valera dominated the voting yesterday, earning 38.61% of the vote, beating out Jace Laviolette (28.6%) and Joey Oakie (12.7%). Valera had previously been ranked in every CTC top 20 from 2018 all the way to 2024.

I feel like I’ve been writing about him forever, but Valera’s journey was incredible, debuting at No. 10 in 2018 before he ever played a game in the Cleveland minor league system. He bumped up to No. 3 in 2019, dropped to No. 6 in 2020, moved up to No. 4 in 2021, soared all the way to No. 1 in 2022, dropped back to No. 3 in 2023, then to No. 6 in 2024 before being removed from the rankings entirely in 2025 after he’d been DFA’d by the team in the offseason following a major knee injury that required reconstruction.

It felt like everyone had given up on Valera — myself included — after he ruptured the patella tendon in his right knee attempting to make a catch on the outfield wall in September 2024. He also missed time due to suspension after making contact with an umpire while fighting an opposing team’s catcher in 2023. It seemed like that was the final nail in the coffin for the oft-injured, but always promising former top prospect.

He had consistently been excellent at almost every level, every year, a 162 wRC+ in 2018, a 165 wRC+ at High-A in 2021, reaching Triple-A in 2022 with a 123 wRC+, but injuries piled up. He broke his hamate bone in his right hand/wrist in 2018, strained his oblique in 2021, sustained another hamate injury in 2023, then strained his hamstring in 2024 before the knee injury.

It seemed his time with Cleveland was over after he’d been removed from the 40-man roster, but Valera re-signed with Cleveland on a minor league deal, then rehabbed his knee. He returned to Columbus for a whopping two games in early June 2025 before again hitting the injured list with right flank soreness. He returned again in late July and something was different this time. Valera played like a man with nothing to lose.

The talented Dominican crushed baseballs in Columbus, even hitting for the cycle on Aug. 22. Whispers turned into screams from the rooftops for him to be promoted to Cleveland and as soon as September rolled around … it happened. Valera made his debut Sept. 1, then picked up his first MLB hit by socking a ball off the green monster in his second career game. He blasted his first career home run off Joe Ryan on Sept. 20. In his 48 plate appearances spanning 16 games at the MLB level, he slashed .220/.333/.415, good for an above average 113 wRC+.

Valera then had a moment he’ll never forget, crushing a home run in his second ever at bat in the MLB Playoffs, a first-inning solo shot off Casey Mize that helped lead Cleveland to a 6-1 game two victory.

With Cleveland releasing Jhonkensy Noel and Will Brennan and not signing additional outfield help in free agency, a starting outfield job appears to be Valera’s to lose for the upcoming 2026 season.

Now, it’s time to determine who is number 14 in the Guardians’ loaded farm system and you now have a whopping 10 players to choose from! Your options are below:

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Juneiker Caceres, OF (Age 18)
2025 (CPX) 160 PA, .289/.419/.469, 3 HR, 5 SB, 16.9 BB%, 11.3 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (A): 130 PA, .250/.331/.345, 1 HR, 2 SB, 6.9 BB%, 13.1 K%, 103 wRC+

Impressed at the complex league, then hit the ground running in a late season promotion to Single-A before running out of steam late in his age-17 season. Loaded with potential.

Dauri Fernandez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 176 PA, .333/.398/.558, 6 HR, 16 SB, 9.1 BB%, 12.5 K%, 147 wRC+
2025 (A): 24 PA, .273/.250/.318, 0 HR, 2 SB, 0 BB%, 12.5 K%, 57 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top performers in the Arizona Complex League in 2025. Undersized, but makes solid contact and doesn’t strike out often. Earned a small taste of full-season ball at the end of the year.

Franklin Gomez, LHP (Age 20)
2025 (A): 14 G, 82.0 IP, 1.85 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 21.4 K%, 11.7 BB%, 1.09 WHIP
2025 (A+): 6 GS, 48.2 IP, 1.70 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 23.4 K%, 9.9 BB%, 1.83 WHIP

Acquired from the Mets in a trade for international bonus cash, Gomez lit up Single-A in his age-19 season, then improved his walk and strikeout numbers after being promoted to High-A.

Yorman Gomez, RHP (Age 23)
2025 (A+): 17 G, 76.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 27.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.11 WHIP
2025 (AA): 10 G, 45.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 28.0 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.25 WHIP

Venezuelan prospect who broke out in with increased velocity in 2025, putting up nearly identical numbers at both High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron. Gomez was added to Cleveland’s 40-man roster.

Josh Hartle, LHP (Age 22)
2025 (A+): 22 GS, 103.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 24.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, 1.05 WHIP
2025 (AA): 2 GS, 10.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 16.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 1.50 WHIP

Acquired from Pittsburghin the Spencer Horwitz trade, Hartle was one of Cleveland’s most successful starting pitchers in its minor league system in 2025. Stands 6-foot-6, but doesn’t have a ton of velocity.

Jace LaViolette, OF (Age 22)
2025 (NCAA) 262 PA, .258/.427/.576, 18 HR, 7 SB, 21.8 BB%, 25.2K%, 120 wRC+

Cleveland’s first round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-6 LaViolette instantly becomes one of the top power hitting prospects in the system. Strikeouts and contact have been an issue, however.

Joey Oakie, RHP (Age 19)
2025 (ACL): 9 GS, 35.0 IP, 7.46 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 27.6 K%, 13.5 BB%, 1.69 WHIP
2025 (A): 6 GS, 24.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 30.7 K%, 14.9 BB%, 1.32 WHIP

Cleveland’s 3rd round pick in 2024 out of high school, Oakie got off to a rough start in the Complex League, but then absolutely dominated when promoted to Single-A Lynchburg with a pair of 11 strikeout performances.

Austin Peterson, RHP (Age 26)
2025 (AA): 11 GS, 55.0 IP, 1.47 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 23.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, 0.84 WHIP
2025 (AAA): 15 GS, 90.2 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 20.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 1.37 WHIP

Absolutely dominated Double-A to begin 2025 looking well on his way to repeating his tremendous 2024 season, but then struggled after an early-season promotion to Triple-A. Remains on the 40-man roster.

Gabriel Rodriguez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 122 PA, .294/.393/.402, 1 HR, 11 SB, 12.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 116 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top recent international signings, Rodriguez put up strong offensive numbers in his stateside debut in his age-18 season in 2025. Expected to transition to full-season ball this year.

Alfonsin Rosario, OF (Age 21)
2025 (A+) 354 PA, .268/.362/.490, 16 HR, 12 SB, 10.8 BB%, 25.1 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (AA): 145 PA, .211/.303/.391, 5 HR, 2 SB, 10.3 BB%, 33.1 K%, 105 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s most impressive hitters in its minor league system during his stint at High-A Lake County as a 20-year-old. Rosario has a unique combination of speed and power, but will need to overcome his strikeouts.

Our list so far:
1. Chase DeLauter, LHH OF
2. Travis Bazzana, LHH 2B
3. Parker Messick, LHP
4. Ralphy Velazquez, LHH 1B/RF
5. Angel Genao, SH SS
6. Braylon Doughty, RHP
7. Cooper Ingle, LHH C
8. Khal Stephen, RHP
9. Juan Brito, SH 2B/1B/RF/3B
10. Jaison Chourio, SH OF
11. Kahlil Watson, LHH OF
12. Daniel Espino, RHP
13. George Valera, LHH OF

Prior entries:

• Matt Olson
• Michael Harris II
• Ozzie Albies
• Bryce Elder
• Austin Riley
• Drake Baldwin
• Ronald Acuña Jr.
• Chris Sale
• Spencer Strider

The portent of the 2024 Atlanta Braves season being a morass of injuries was Sean Murphy getting hurt and leaving the first game of the season. The portent of the 2025 Atlanta Braves season being… really dumb and no fun was Jurickson Profar eating a PED suspension after the first series of the season.

By the time Profar came back, his new team was more or less dead in the water as far as playoff potential. Profar also didn’t really do anything to revive them — his 1.3 fWAR in 371 PAs, which was only achieved due to a fair bit of xwOBA overperformance, was basically a bog-standard rate. It was better than Alex Verdugo, but it wasn’t actually good.

Career-to-date, status

Because he made his MLB debut at age 19, Profar has been around foooreeeeeveeeer, though his career was largely nondescript. He didn’t start sticking as a regular until 2018 (at age 25); he was replacement level in over 700 career PAs before that point. (A minorly funny thing was that he spent all of 2014 and 2015 in the minors. In 2013, he had 324 PAs and a 75 wRC+. In 2016, he had 307 PAs and a 75 wRC+. Heh.) After getting regular playing time, he largely oscillated between being an average regular and something worse. His aggregate hitting was fine, but he played poor defense at an already-low skill position, which tanked his value. He hit rock bottom in 2023, where his -1.6 fWAR was the worst mark among anyone in baseball. (He wasn’t the worst on a rate basis, though. For example, then-teammate Harold Castro managed -1.5 fWAR in just 270 PAs, while it took Profar 521 to “rack up” his -1.6 mark.)

Fortunately for Profar, he had a renaissance of sorts in 2024, as he broke out offensively (139 wRC+ without outhitting his xwOBA by any meaningful amount) and even went back to just plain bad defensively relative to his 2023. That, and potentially a lack of anything else to spend moolah on, led the Braves to sign him to a three-year, $42 million contract ahead of the 2025 season. The Braves “saved” about $6 million as a result of the PED suspension, but Profar is still owed $15 million in each of 2026 and 2027.

Recent performance

It’s hard to know what to make of Profar’s 2025, other than the fact that I guess, in the end, he more or less ended up where he was expected to be (rate-wise), just in a lot fewer games due to the suspension. The fact that it came with a big xwOBA overperformance could be a concern. Profar’s topline was a 122 wRC+ — better than any mark he achieved other than 2024 — and 1.3 fWAR in 371 PAs, which is right around 2 WAR per 600 PAs. Unfortunately, Profar’s xwOBA was just .322 compared to a .346 wOBA; he actually had a higher xwOBA in each of 2018-2020. In addition, his defense ended up somewhere between the horrorshow that was 2023 (-13 OAA-based runs in about 800 innings) and the 2024 improvement (-6 in about 1,200 innings).

With fewer than 400 PAs and a lengthy layoff, it’s hard to read too much into Profar’s 2025 vis-a-vis his 2024. The key factor is that his big “discovery” from 2024, i.e., just whacking the snot out of the ball while continuing to make a high rate of contact, basically didn’t carry over. Profar’s well-above-average exit velocity from 2024, a total divergence from the slappy numbers he posted earlier in his career, once again declined to below-average in 2025, as did his hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate didn’t really change, and he continued to a walk a ton, like he did in 2024. He chased more than in 2024 but not any more than earlier in his career. He was more passive than before (like many of his teammates), and also made even more contact than before. Fundamentally, though, it’s hard to believe that he can regain something closer to 2024 without straight-up hitting the ball harder, and he absolutely did not hit it hard enough in 2025.

Forecasting

There’s nothing that weird in the point estimates below. You can compare then with the green stuff above. Profar will probably play a bit, and be average-y…

… at least, that’s the “safe” bet stochastically. In reality, while Profar’s ceiling isn’t super-high and it seems like he shouldn’t be a very variable outcome guy, the “problem” is that he has an absolute disaster scenario with reasonable weight (a la earlier in his career, and 2013), so the point estimate is dragged down by that in a way that just isn’t true for other players, who have some sort of skillset floor they can rely on. Basically, what I’m saying is that because Profar’s lows can get very low, when he gets a 1.5-2.0ish point estimate, that means there’s also a pretty good high on the other end to counterbalance. To wit:

Basically, there’s a substantially horrible tail on the left side that just kind of keeps going. If Profar had a “normal” stop-loss that didn’t involve a real chance that he’d be substantially below replacement and continue to get playing time anyway, his point estimate would be much higher.

But, he doesn’t, so what you get is this sort of bizarrely-skewed distribution where his mode outcome might be pretty close to his optimal (reasonable) outcome, yet the downside is just so bad that you can’t bank on him producing all that much. I have no idea if Steamer and ZiPS “think” something similar directly, but I do note that as far as ZiPS goes, his 20th percentile WAR is below replacement, where he’s joined only by Mauricio Dubon with that being the case. ZiPS, though, does have his 80th percentile WAR as being only slightly above 2, which is where IWAG totally diverges as you can see from the above.

Still, he’s basically “hit the ball hard again” away from being quite useful, and he already did it once, so… maybe? Please?

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

• Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Jurickson Profar produce in 2026?
• How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

Greetings! It’s that magical time of the year when baseball pundits publish their annual rankings and Orioles fans can argue about whether Samuel Basallo should be the fourth-best prospect in baseball or the eighth. But beyond the fortunes of individual prospects, where does the organization as a whole stack up heading into 2026?

The Orioles’ farm system has seen significant turnover in the past six months. The team conducted a full sell-off at the July 2025 trade deadline, moving Cedric Mullins, Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, and several relievers in exchange for 16 prospects—11 of them pitchers—highlighted by lefty Boston Bateman (from San Diego), right-hander Juaron Watts-Brown (Toronto), and hard-throwing Wellington Aracena and control artist Anthony Nunez (Mets). The emphasis on arms addressed long-standing criticisms of the organization’s pitching development. Then, unexpectedly in December, the Orioles flipped some of that newly-acquired depth to land Shane Baz from the Rays, sending out four prospects including 2025 draft picks Caden Bodine and Slater de Brun, along with pitching prospect Michael Forret. The net effect: Baltimore restocked with young, high-upside arms in the summer, then cashed in some of that capital for a major league starter with three years of control.

In the last month, three major outlets have now weighed in on farm system rankings: ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and MLB Pipeline’s executive poll. The results paint the Orioles of a system in transition—one that’s graduated significant talent but still has plenty of reasons for optimism.

The Rankings

Let’s start with where everyone has the Birds. ESPN slots the Orioles at 13th overall, while Keith Law has Baltimore ranked somewhat higher in his tiered system (No. 9 overall, third tier). And in MLB Pipeline’s executive poll, the Orioles received votes for best farm system but didn’t crack the top tier—a notable slide from the days when Baltimore was the consensus No. 1 system in baseball.

For context, Milwaukee now sits atop ESPN’s rankings, followed by Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Law agrees on Milwaukee, with Los Angeles and Seattle make up the rest of his Top 3. MLB Pipeline gives the top three spots to LA, Seattle, and Detroit, putting the Brewers fifth. When it comes to prospect depth, the Brewers have become something of a model organization, excelling on the international market (Jesús Made, Jackson Chourio) and finding later-round draft gems. It wasn’t that long ago when the Orioles were the ones being held up as the gold standard. Six consecutive No. 1 farm system rankings from MLB Pipeline feels like ancient history now.

The good news is that the evaluators remain bullish on the system’s top-end talent. Basallo continues to appear in the top ten on every list, with ESPN ranking him fourth overall. Keith Law has him at No. 8. The consensus is clear: when healthy and behind the plate, Basallo has as much offensive upside as any catching prospect in recent memory.

McDaniel notes that the Orioles “sent four players from their extensive farm depth to the Rays in the Shane Baz deal” but still “ranks seventh in quality depth.” That trade, which brought back the talented but oft-injured right-hander, represents the kind of calculus the Orioles have had to make as they try to balance building for the future with winning now.

Beyond Basallo, the evaluators identify Trey Gibson and Dylan Beavers as the other blue-chip pieces in the system. All three should see significant major league time in 2026—Basallo and Beavers essentially graduated last August and will be roster staples from Opening Day.

Law’s list differs somewhat from the others. He has five Orioles in his top 100: Basallo at No. 8, shortstop Wehiwa Aloy at No. 73, outfielder Nate George at No. 78, catcher/outfielder Ike Irish at No. 85, and outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. at No. 97. Notably absent from Law’s rankings is Beavers, who appeared at No. 21 on Baseball America’s list. Law is particularly enthusiastic about George, describing him as a player who “plays like his hair’s on fire” with “All-Star upside” if he can develop above-average power.

One recurring theme across the rankings is that the Orioles’ system is a bit thinner behind the top names than it used to be. That’s the natural consequence of a pipeline working exactly as intended. When Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez were all in the minors together, the system looked unstoppable. Now those players are either establishing themselves at the major league level, and not necessarily with the Orioles.

The executive poll is perhaps most telling here. When asked which teams “hoard prospects the most,” the Orioles have slid down the list—they used to be right at the top with Cleveland. Baltimore still appears in votes for best farm system and best at developing hitters, but the organization is no longer the unanimous choice it once was.

McDaniel offers some optimism on this front, noting “there’s a nice layer beyond them of nearly 20 prospects who could be in the top 200 prospects in the sport next winter.” Names like Luis De León, the 22-year-old lefty who dominated the Arizona Fall League, could be poised to rise. The system isn’t empty; it’s just younger than it was a few years ago.

The practical implications of these rankings matter less than the talent actually on the field. Basallo and Beavers will be in Baltimore fighting for Rookie of the Year honors, potentially earning the team an extra draft pick if either wins. Gibson and Bradfield are a level away and could debut this season. The pipeline, while not quite as loaded as it was during the peak rebuild years, continues to flow.

The Orioles also appear in one poll’s top for “best at developing hitters” and receive mention for their work on the international market. The organizational infrastructure that built this system remains intact, even as the headliners have moved on to Camden Yards.

Is 13th overall where Orioles fans want to see their farm system ranked? Probably not. But it’s worth remembering what that ranking represents: a system that has successfully graduated multiple All-Star caliber players while still retaining a top-five overall prospect in Basallo. The goal was never to have the best farm system in perpetuity—it was to build a sustainable winner.

The next wave is coming. It just might take a little longer to arrive than the last one did.

ZiPS' projected standings for the 2026 MLB season portend good things for the Mets.

The projections, via Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs, "are the result of a million simulations."

Szymborski explains:

"These are median standings, meaning that they represent every team’s 50th-percentile projection. These have a tighter range than the actual standings because we don’t expect every team to hit their 50th-percentile projection, but rather for three teams, on average, to beat their 90th-percentile projection, six to beat their 80th-percentile projection, and so on."

In other words, the win totals in the projections skew a bit low. 

Now, the projections...

• The Mets finish with a record of 89-73, good for second place in the NL East (behind the 91-71 Phillies)
• That 89-73 record gives the Mets the third-best record in the NL (behind the Phillies and 96-66 Dodgers) and fifth-best record in MLB (the Blue Jays and Red Sox are both projected to finish 90-72).
• In this scenario, the Mets would be the top Wild Card team
• The other projected playoff teams are the Cubs (87-75, NL Central winner), Braves and Brewers (both 86-76 while making it in as Wild Card teams)
• The Mets' World Series win percentage is 6.1, behind only the Dodgers (18.2), Phillies (7.6), and Astros (6.8)

On the Mets' offseason and outlook, Szymborski writes:

Despite the loss of Pete Alonso, ZiPS thinks the Mets had a pretty effective offseason. 

The Mets have had a transformational winter, moving on from Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil.

New York's main moves have been signings of Bo Bichette, Devin Williams, Jorge Polanco, and Luke Weaver, and trades for Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr.

Who is he and where did he come from?

He’s Nate Baez and he comes from Oro Valley, Arizona. Oro Valley looks like this:

…so I can only assume that baseball is Baez’s second career after robbing stagecoaches didn’t work out.

The Red Sox just acquired him from the Twins organization in exchange for Triston Gray — whose entire tenure with the Red Sox lasted all of two months in the middle of the offseason, and who will not be the next Romy Gonzalez after all.

What position does he play?

Baez was known for his defensive versatility in college at Arizona State, where he played every single position except for shortstop, center field, and right field. In the pros he’s split his time between catcher and first base.

Is he any good?

He’s better than you, but his professional destiny is probably that of an organizational catcher who might get a cup of coffee in the big leagues one day.

The 24-year-oldBaez reached AA for the first time in his career this past season, where he hit .237/.297/.400 with 5 homers in 51 games. The best part of his offensive game is probably his patience and batting eye. At the time of his promotion to AA last year, he was rocking a 17.4% walk rate in the single-A Midwest league, which would have been the second-best walk rate in the league had he qualified. But some statistical inflation is to be expected with players who are old for their level, and that rate dropped down to 6.1% in AA.

There isn’t much of a scouting report on him as a catcher yet, as, frankly, he hasn’t spent much time as a catcher. Since being drafted in 2022, he’s started a grand total of 110 games behind the plate, after catching just 46 games at Arizona State. But he did throw out 14 of 47 would-be base-stealers at AA last season, which is a pretty solid return for someone who doesn’t have much experience behind the plate.

Show me a cool highlight.

Though he’s only 25 total homers over 229 career minor leage games, Baez actually had two multi-homer games in 2024 alone. Here’s the second:

What’s he doing in his picture up there?

Getting ready to play third, because he heard the Sox might have an opening there…

What’s his role on the 2026 Red Sox?

While he’ll be at Spring Training, Baez is not currently on the 40-man roster and almost certainly will not have a role on the 2026 Red Sox. In fact, the primary motivation in the Gray-Baez swap was opening up a spot on the 40-man roster for Ranger Suárez. So in light of the fact that Craig Breslow managed to get some value in a situation in which he would have otherwise needed to DFA someone for nothing, it was a good deal, even if Baez never makes it to the big leagues. And who knows — catcher is the most demanding position and one that takes years to master, and Baez has effectively just begun his journey behind the plate. Maybe he’ll improve quickly and turn into a plus defensive player with a chance to have a career as a glove-first guy.

In mechanical engineering, it’s common knowledge that Contraptions (sometimes referred to informally as “Machines”) are fed by Fodder. The term of venery for an individual piece of Fodder is Pile. Some examples in a sentence: “When new Fodder joins the Pile, it’s better for everyone; The Contraption was beginning to hunger.” or, “Alex Hoppe, The Contraption demands to be fed, and as a recent addition to the Pile of Fodder, you are its chosen fuel, its sustenance, its very lifeblood. Prepare to be Contrapted.”

That, at least, is the hope that anyone who follows the Mariners should have upon reading “Seattle has acquired [pitcher they have not heard of] in exchange for [a minor-league just-a-guy hitter].” The organization has developed quite the reputation as a pitching lab. That reputation is justly earned. From drafting an entire rotation’s worth of MLB starting pitchers in just four drafts to being a career-changing destination for the castaway and the non-tendered, Seattle has proven that they’ve built something special. 

They’ve built a smooth, well-oiled Machine. A Contraption, carefully engineered to take, for example, pitchers like Alex Hoppe and transform them into, for example, pitchers like 2021-2023 Paul Sewald. 

What is a pitcher like Alex Hoppe? Hoppe, acquired from Boston this off-season, is a 2022 6th round draft pick that has steadily risen through Boston’s farm as a pure relief pitcher. He comes without pedigree, never landing on Boston’s top 30 prospects list. He’s mostly been a middle relief guy, only ever recording six saves in a season. He’s achieved mostly acceptable results thus far without ever really excelling. 

There’s almost no easily-accessible video of him besides this one Instagram reel from Boston’s Player Development account.

Red Sox Player Development (@redsoxplayerdev) • Instagram reel

So, from afar, his repertoire stands out to me as looking almost like the antithesis of modern pitch design philosophy. 

What’s sexy in pitching these days? Low-slot, high-band rising fastballs with an absurd IVB or VAA, if you’re a pronator, or a seam-shifted wake sinker that tumbles if you’re a supinator (or both, if you’re Bryan Woo). Hoppe throws a four-seamer that doesn’t get an insane amount of ride, and given the 52.3° arm angle, has a pretty poor VAA. He also has a cutter that shows solid cut and acceptable ride. 

Also sexy: frisbee sweepers with bonkers horizontal movement and almost no drop, and perhaps even positive IVB. Hoppe throws a sharp, downward 11-5 slider that bites sometimes, but can also be a bit slack-jawed. This means that it overlays with his cutter quite a bit in movement profile. 

As for offspeed pitches, the tumbling, low-spin splitters or the Skenesian splinkers are hot, as is the new “kick change”. Last season, Hoppe sported a new changeup that’s relatively mediocre, and was deployed exclusively against lefties.

Today’s pitch-design landscape feels like an arms race – some team or player builds something new and weird, identifies some trait or movement that makes life hell for hitters, and leans into it. Everyone else follows suit, and suddenly everywhere you look, you’re seeing these new pitches, or new varieties of old ones. Hoppe’s offerings, by comparison, are simple and unextraordinary. 

That isn’t necessarily a problem, but what definitely is, is that he has not demonstrated the ability to control the ball – he ran a 12.3 BB% rate in AA/AAA last season. For a relief pitcher, that is…not good!

At this point, Hoppe is rather raw, but that’s okay. Being polished and already flashing above-average pitches with good stats isn’t a prerequisite for becoming Contrapted. The opposite is probably more true – what makes the Mariners pitching development team so uniquely good at this is their ability to see things that others don’t. 

What do they see in Hoppe? There’s a few things that catch my eye. 

The first major one is that arm angle. His average arm angle of 52.3° is well more than a standard deviation higher than the mean arm angle (about 36° for pitchers with over 300 pitches thrown last season).

This is a chart showing arm angle distribution from MLB last season, controlling for the top 5 outliers on both ends for data cleanliness. Hoppe currently lives in the third right-most of these bars, with an arm angle higher than about 90% of the sample. Not quite outlier-high, but pretty dang high. 

Another thing that catches my attention is that while he ranks quite highly in Whiff%, Chase% and K%, he allows very high exit velocity and Hard-Hit% – he more or less turns batters into Khris Davis. He might be in the category of “effectively wild”. Luckily, because his groundball rate is also exceptionally high, (55% vs 42% average in MLB last season), he hasn’t been punished for that…yet. 

He had a pretty high BABIP last season (.347), which, in the face of letting batters make powerful contact with the ball, makes sense, but it’s also indicates some unluckiness. He also had a generous difference between his xwOBA (.278) and his wOBA (.318), once again showing that he may have underperformed last season relative ot his true talent.

It’s hard for us to say, from the outside, what the keen, hawk-like eyes of The Contraption have identified in Hoppe as ideal sustenance. Perhaps they prize that higher arm angle in a moment of low angles. A lot of the pitchers at the higher end of that spectrum have been raising theirs even further over the last couple of years, and no one on the Mariners besides another relatively new acquisition, Luke Jackson, has an arm angle over 44°. Maybe they’ve identified biomechanical tweaks that could enable him to control the zone, while also adjusting the pitch profile. As a reliever, after all, you’re really ever just one lights-out pitch away from being an impact arm.

If it were any other organization, I would feel silly for thinking this much about a reliever acquired for a 14th-round catcher. It would be safe to say that we simply swapped org guys. It’s still a decently likely outcome. With Seattle, though, it’s hard not to think that he’s been deemed Contraptable, and in a year or two they’ll have created yet another high-leverage bullpen arm out of simple Fodder. 

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PS: I’d be remiss if I didn’t include this. Shoutout Sweezo #sweezo