Entering the 2026 season, the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation contained the reigning Cy Young winner, the No. 2 pitching prospect in baseball, and the former franchise leader in strikeouts by a right-handed pitcher.
None of the three, or Braxton Ashcraft, have been the Pirates best starting pitcher this year.
It’s the guy everyone, including myself, thought was destined to start in the bullpen.
Carmen Mlodzinski has been Pittsburgh’s most consistent and most effective starter through the first month.
Hear me out.
The Pirates have one of the best rotations in baseball and contribute largely to the team’s 3.22 overall team ERA, the second-best in baseball.
Mlodzinski leads the rotation with a 1.77 ERA and is the only starter below 2.00. He’s only allowed four earned runs over 20.1 innings.
Paul Skenes’ ERA sits at 3.27 and is inflated due to five runs allowed and only recording two outs on Opening Day against the Mets, largely due to two defensive blunders. Skenes has allowed three runs in his other 21.1 innings.
When examining who’s been the best, it’s hard to ignore the expectation vs. reality.
Pirates fans and media members thought the Bucs were bound to sign a left-handed starting pitcher as the fifth starter out of camp, but it never happened.
The initial belief was that Jose Urquidy could be a bounce back option… he’s in Triple-A Indianapolis.
Mlodzinski recorded a career-high eight strikeouts in his first start against New York and has pitched deeper into games every outing, from 4.1 innings to 4.2, 5.1, and six full innings pitched.
In his last two starts against the preseason NL Central favorite Chicago Cubs at windy Wrigley, Mlodzinski allowed six hits, walked three, and struck out two, but a run didn’t cross the plate.
He appeared in relief of opener Mason Montgomery against the Washington Nationals on Wednesday and pitched arguably the best game of his MLB career.
Mlodzinski totaled a career-best six innings with two hits, two walks, five strikeouts, and another scoreless outing.
The 27-year-old starter hasn’t allowed a run in his last 12 innings.
Pirates starters didn’t allow a home run over the first three series. Mlodzinski hasn’t allowed one in four outings.
Mlodzinski isn’t overpowering hitters, but changing speeds and using solid location to put away the game’s best hitters.
Mlodzinski is in the 98th percentile in offspeed run value (3) and the 90th percentile in barrel percentage (1.7%). While opponents are hitting the ball hard off him 51.7% of the time (10th percentile), his even ground ball rate of 51.7% has limited the damage.
The first full month of baseball has gone better than anyone could have imagined following a 6.04 ERA in five April starts in 2025.
Another concern for Mlodzinski was facing the lineup for a third time. In 9.1 frames past the third inning, Mlodzinski has given up only three runs.
In 11 innings over the first three innings, the starter has allowed one run and five total hits.
Not taking anything away from Skenes, Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, or Bubba Chandler, who have all had great moments, Mlodzinski is pitching the best he’s pitched since the Pirates drafted him in 2020.
The Pirates are short on pitching depth after Johan Oviedo and Mike Burrows were dealt for bats, plus Jared Jones not expected back for another month.
Mlodzinski has been everything the Pirates could have asked for and more, but the key is sustaining it
Mlodzinski will start Tuesday night as the Pirates begin the first of three against the Texas Rangers.
First pitch is at 8:05 p.m. as Mlodzinski will pitch against the American League for the second time.
