Earlier this offseason, we were all a little surprised to hear that the Red Sox were rumored to be interested in catcher J.T. Realmuto. He’s since resigned with the Phillies, but the Sox are reportedly still interested in upgrading at catcher. While the catching position doesn’t feel like a priority given Carlos Narvaez’s successful rookie campaign, the team may simply see upgrading from Connor Wong as low-hanging fruit. Admittedly, though, there isn’t much catching talent out there right now. (Sean McAdam, MassLive)
But the catching spot should take a backseat to upgrading the infield. As of today, it looks like Marcelo Mayer is being penciled in at third. After yet another season-ending injury, Mayer recently provided an injury update: “I feel good. I’m pretty much doing full baseball activities like a normal ramp-up. I feel like I’m in a good spot.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)
And don’t forget: while nothing seems imminent, things can come together quickly. For example, the Ranger Suárez deal was apparently negotiated over the length of a single afternoon. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)
Suárez is one of three big acquisitions the Sox have made so far. As for on of the others, Willson Contreras, get ready to enjoy a fiery ballplayer: “I play to win. I don’t play to mess around. I don’t play to make friends on other teams. That’s the way I play, and I’m going to keep showing my emotions.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)
While it’s going to be hard to find a decent catcher or upgrade the infield, it’s not hard to sign international free agents. The international amateur signing period opened last week and the Sox have already signed 17 players, all of whom are expected to head to the player development academy in the Dominican Republic. It’s quite possible, if not probable, that none of these players will ever make it to the big leagues, but here’s a rundown of some of the top names, including two players who were ranked in the top-50 of international amateurs and one player out of Brazil, which is still emerging as a baseball hotbed, powered by Japanese immigration. (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)
And look: we’ve got new minor league coaches! Not the most exciting news in the world, but we just don’t have a lot going on right now, folks. Interestingly, several of them have a history with Driveline. (Christopher Smith, MassLive)
Gavin Sheets was given the opportunity to make the San Diego Padres roster in Spring Training last season, and he took full advantage of it. He quickly become a fan favorite and chants of “Holy Sheets!” could be heard throughout Petco Park during his at-bats. Sheets even earned himself the nickname “Dairy Bonds” thanks some timely and powerful homeruns. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at what Sheets has done since becoming a member of the Padres and what he can do during the 2026 season to build on the success of last season.
Padres News:
Centerfielder Jackson Merrill signed a nine-year extension with the Padres early in the 2025 season. Some baseball pundits thought he sold himself short by excepting what was by all accounts a team-friendly contract, but Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball talks about how Merrill wants to be in San Diego, much like Mr. Padre.
Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball covers detail about the oblique injury suffered by Sung-Mun Song and provides readers with an idea of what to expect regarding the recovery timeline, rehab process and possible setbacks.
AJ Cassavell of Padres.com provides his list of the best Padres players by number, which includes former Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy with No. 44. Joe Musgrove still has time to change that, but since he wears 44 because of Peavy it may not happen.
According to reports, the Padres are one of many teams interested in adding free agent infielder Miguel Andujar to their roster.
Good morning! Boston saw its first significant snow storm of 2026 yesterday, and it’s well below freezing today. In other words, it very much does not feel like baseball season here. But baseball is being played all around the world, including in the Dominican, where a spot in the LIDOM championship series was decided by a walkoff walk:
Forecasting most players has, well… constrained error bounds. A pretty good player with a point estimate of about 3 WAR might give you a couple more in a great year or lose you three wins in a worse-than-forgettable campaign.
Ronald Acuña Jr., though? He can make your season by himself, if things go his (and your) way. The difference between his MVP-winning 2023 and his unfortunate 2024 was over eight wins in fWAR terms. Eight wins turns a .500 team into a likely playoff entrant. Forecasting Acuña is probably less scary than facing him as a pitcher, but neither should strike you with confidence or zeal.
Career-to-date, status
Oh boy, how to summarize this? Acuña hit the ground running with over 9 fWAR in his first 1,200 career PAs, and then found another gear offensively in 2022-2021, approaching 7 fWAR in under 600 PAs. Unfortunately, there was that whole ACL injury thing suffered in 2021, and 2022 was an uncomfortably pedestrian season. He rebounded with an MVP campaign (9.2 fWAR) in 2023, socking 41 homers, stealing 73 bags, and putting up an absurd .460 xwOBA — he and Aaron Judge were the only two players that year to eclipse even .450 in xwOBA, and Judge only managed 458 PAs that year. 2024 ended up being a weirdly uncomfortable season for him (a career-worst .350 xwOBA) and he never got a change to dig out of that hole, as he tore his other ACL.
His defense also never really returned to anything useful after his first ACL injury — whether due to his own tentativeness, a direction for him to take it easy in the field, or some combination of the two.
Acuña is in the final guaranteed year of an eight-year, $100 million extension he signed early in the 2019 season, which was the largest contract at that time for a player with less than a year of service time. The Braves hold a couple of $17 million options for him in 2027 and 2028, which they’ll certainly exercise — unless they can somehow find a way to layer on an extension in the process. That seems to be in their favor for the obvious reason that Acuña can change an entire season around for a team given how good he can be, but, of course, the cost effectiveness of any deal that would get him to forgo a shot at free agency looms large. As we’ll see below, forecasting him is kind of a nightmare, so it requires a lot of risk tolerance to work out a solution that will result in fresh ink on contract pages (are MLB contracts e-signed now? I have no idea).
Recent performance
Acuña’s 2025 was weird. He approached a .400 xwOBA, and actually outhit it, the first time he’s outhit his xwOBA since his rookie year. (He has a sizable career xwOBA underperformance.) Still, his “new gear” offensively was notably higher than “just” .400. On top of that, it’s hard to make heads or tails of what exactly he changed (or didn’t) in 2025. He walked a ton, and he explicitly credited Tim Hyers and the team’s changed offensive approach to his ability to garner those walks… but the reality is that his chase rate didn’t really budge, and he had a bunch of contact issues, especially on changeups for whatever reason. When Acuña is going berserk, he’s crushing changeups and sliders as well as fastballs, but the changes he made in 2025 made him much more of a fastball-eviscerator. As noted, he really struggled to connect with changeups, while his contact quality on sliders straight-up died as he was fighting them off and flicking them rather than destroying them like he did earlier in his career. What does any of this mean for the future? I have no idea. Acuña’s ability to make on-the-fly adjustments is one of the many things that makes him a phenom, so there’s no reason he’s locked in to any system or mode of performance.
On the flip side, we can probably figure he’s going to continue to be tentative in the field, and might see a bunch of DH time, especially with Sean Murphy apparently not making it back for Opening Day. Acuña hasn’t been a positively defensively in an outfield corner relative to his peers since before the first ACL tear, and last season was as big of a mess defensively as you’ll see from a guy that isn’t miscast as an outfielder in the first place. Suffice to say: his ability to generate value is entirely on his bat, and moreover, on how well his hitting outpaces whatever he gives away WAR-wise from hanging out in right field or appearing as a DH.
All in all, Acuña managed 3.5 fWAR in 412 PAs last year. Nothing to sneeze at, and really, laudable numbers for nearly any MLBer. His 161 wRC+ was the second-highest of his career, but again, (slight) xwOBA overperformance helped there.
Forecasting
Yeah, I don’t know. To do this well, you not only have to somehow figure whether there’s going to be another catastrophic injury, how many small nagging injuries he’ll get breaks for, how much rest is baked in to his schedule, and even aside from all that, which offensive version of the guy you’re going to get. We’ve had two struggle-y seasons, one coming off injury (2022) and one before an injury struck (2024). Those sandwiched an MVP campaign. As noted above, his 2025 was weird but still good despite the weirdness.
If you’re struck by those numbers being “low” — they aren’t — except the PA tally, which resembles 2025 in point estimate terms. The wRC+ is basically in line with his career, and yeah, the defense is a drag, but it is what it is. My interpretation here is that the big question for Acuña is health — there’s basically a 1.5 WAR swing between figuring he misses up to seven weeks with issues, and he plays pretty regularly, and that matters.
And nowhere is that more evident than in the above chart, where, like Austin Riley before him, there’s this giant gap between the rate of production (which looks normal-ish, if skewed towards lower rates a bit) and how that actually translates into production given that he might once again miss a bunch of time. This bimodal distribution is the stuff of nightmares because of how far apart the two peaks are — that’s basically an entire meaty part of the win curve right there, as a result of one ultra-talented 28-year-old. Oof.
With regard to other systems:
Steamer has Acuña at a 148 wRC+ and basically the same WAR/600 as IWAG. The issue is, again, whether you discount his playing time at all given his track record.
ZiPS has him hitting notably better than IWAG/Steamer, and basically a half-win better on a per-600 basis — but also has a PA point estimate of well below 550 PAs. I don’t really know what to do with this, I’m just throwing it out there.
Your turn
Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:
Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Ronald Acuña Jr. produce in 2026?
How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”
There are big expectations for Baltimore backstop Samuel Basallo as he heads into his official rookie season. The 21-year-old out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, doesn’t just represent the leader of a new wave of talent graduating from the Orioles’ farm system. Basallo represents the first real fruits of an increased emphasis on developing talent through the international free agent market.
Basallo signed with the Orioles in 2021 for a then-club record $1.3M signing bonus. After a relative sprint through the minors that saw him make his big league debut at 20, the now-No. 1 catching prospect in baseball showed flashes of his immense potential in 31 games last season. Highlights included a walk-off homer against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers, another walk-off winner four days later against the Pirates and a moonshot against the Yankees for his final long ball of the year.
That’s not to say that the rookie didn’t have his struggles. In the first 109 ABs of his career, Basallo posted a .165 average and .559 OPS and struggled with strikeouts. The 6’4” catcher certainly faded down the stretch of his first major league cameo. Over his first 15 games, he posted a modest .204 average with a .660 OPS and 24% strikeout rate—decent returns for a 20-year-old rookie. Over the following 16 games, that average dipped to .127, the OPS plummeted to .459 and his strikeout rate spiked to 31%.
One of the big tasks for Craig Albernaz and his staff will be getting Basallo to tap into his excellent tools on a more consistent basis. The big Dominican showed elite bad speed in his first month-plus in the big leagues; his 75.5mph average swing speed would rank top 20 in all of baseball and is on par with star SS Gunnar Henderson. If Basallo can start to make more consistent contact, that bat speed should lead to the hard hit rates and exit velocities that lead to the upper echelon power output we’ve seen from Henderson.
The new manager will also have to figure out the best role for his young backstop in 2026. Injuries to Adley Rutschman and Gary Sánchez meant that Basallo spent a lot more time at catcher last season than most could have anticipated. Twenty of his 29 starts came behind the dish as Basallo quieted some of those who doubted his ability to provide major-league-caliber defense.
With Sánchez not brought back and Alex Jackson traded to the Twins, Basallo comes into the upcoming season as the undisputed backup to Rutschman. Given that Rutschman’s OPS is over 100 points higher when he’s DH’ing instead of catching, and given Basallo’s undeniable offensive upside, the Orioles may elect to rotate Rutschman and Basallo between catcher and DH while keeping both in the lineup. Basallo is also currently the Orioles’ only left-handed-hitting 1B option, so he should see some starts to spell righties Pete Alonso, Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo.
If a combination of Basallo’s hard work, additional exposure to major league pitching and the benefits of the new coaching staff helps him take a leap, it’ll represent a success on two fronts for the Orioles. A fully-realized Basallo (or close to it) can provide a similar offensive boost to new additions Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward. However, Basallo’s success would also represent the first major success of Mike Elias’ efforts to overhaul the Orioles approach in the international free agent market.
Under Elias’ predecessor, Dan Duquette, the O’s largely ignored international free agent prospects. Over Duquette’s eight seasons at the helm (2011 — 2018), Baltimore only had three former international free agent signings crack their top 10 prospects. Jonathan Schoop was a mainstay on the Orioles’ top 10 prospect list from 2011 until his debut in 2013. Eduardo Rodriguez was the Orioles’ No. 3 prospect when they flipped him for reliever Andrew Miller at the 2014 trade deadline. However, both of those players also predated Duquette, with Schoop signing out of Curaçao in 2008 and Rodríguez signing out of Venezuela in 2010.
The only player Duquette signed that ever cracked the Orioles’ top 10 prospects was infielder Jomar Reyes. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, Reyes rose as high as the Orioles’ No. 3 prospect in 2016. Injuries and inconsistent performance then derailed his progress through the minors, ultimately leading to his release in 2020. Reyes’ failure to launch was an example of Duquette’s approach to developing foreign talent. While teams like the Astros, Dodgers and Braves were using the international free agent market to propel them to World Series titles, the Orioles fell further and further behind competitive organizations.
Since Elias took charge, the organization has done a complete 180 in the international market. The O’s have committed major resources to revamping their international scouting, opened a state-of-the-art academy in the Dominican Republic and continue to sign more and more top international prospects. Baltimore’s most recent class featured five players in MLB.com’s Top 50 international prospects, 10 total signings and saw the Orioles hand out a club-record $2.3M signing bonus to Dominican shortstop Jose Luis Acevedo.
It’s hard to say what impact Basallo’s ascension to the big leagues and subsequent contract extension had on the most recent class of international free agents, but it couldn’t have hurt. Should the Orioles’ No. 1 prospect reward the front office’s faith in him, it would be a signal to other budding stars in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and beyond that Baltimore is now a serious player when it comes to developing premier international talent.
The Orioles already have other top international prospects rocketing up their farm system. Many evaluators view Orioles’ top pitching prospect Esteban Mejia as a player who can develop into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Infielder Aron Estrada and LHP Luis De León both have outside shots at making it to the majors in 2026. Fellow top 30 prospects RHP Keeler Morfe and OF Stiven Martinez also present as high-upside prospects that still need plenty of development.
However, Basallo is undoubtedly the face of this new wave of Orioles international talent. A breakout during his rookie season can not just help the 2026 Orioles but also serve as a massive domino in turning this wave into a constant flow of international talent to Baltimore.
Zac Gallen, also attached to a qualifying offer, fits in the same boat.
New York's continued openness to players attached to a QO is notable because they are going to lose their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 MLB Draft for signing Bo Bichette.
If Valdez or Gallen is signed by the Mets, they will also lose their third- and sixth-highest picks in the 2026 draft.
The Mets remain in need of a pitcher who can slot in near the top of their rotation, and have also been linked to Freddy Peralta, whom the Milwaukee Brewers have made available via trade.
In order to acquire Peralta, who is one year away from free agency but reportedly open to an extension, New York would likely have to part with one of its young starting pitching prospects and more.
If not Peralta, the 32-year-old Valdez could be a very strong fit.
After 30-year-old Ranger Suarez recently signed a five-year, $130 million deal with the Boston Red Sox, it's fair to believe that Valdez can be had on a three- or four-year pact with a higher average annual value than Suarez received.
Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers in game one of the Wild Card round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina - Imagn Images
The above type of deal for Valdez would theoretically be in the wheelhouse of David Stearns, who generally prefers to not go long on contracts for pitchers over 30.
Valdez has been a workhorse over the last four seasons, posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 767.2 innings.
After leading the American League in innings pitched in 2022 (201.1 IP), Valdez hasn't really slowed down. He fired 198.0 innings in 2023, 176.1 innings in 2024, and 192.0 innings this past season.
His ERA in 2025 was 3.66 -- the highest it's been since 2019, when Valdez was working mostly in relief. But while the ERA was a tick high, there wasn't much cause for concern elsewhere, as Valdez's WHIP, hit rate, walk rate, home run rate, and strikeout rate were all right around his career averages.
When looking at Valdez's relatively down 2025 season, it's also skewed a bit by a rough final six weeks.
Valdez had a 2.62 ERA ahead of his start on Aug. 3, but was hit hard in six of his final 10 outings. In the middle of that tough stretch, though, Valdez had one start where he fired 7.0 shutout innings, another where he allowed three runs across 7.0 innings, and closed his season on a high note, tossing 7.0 innings of one-run ball while striking out 10 on Sept. 25.
The Phillies are reportedly ‘livid’ that Bo Bichette spurned their $200 million offer in favor of a shorter-term deal with the Mets, with reporter Jim Salisbury saying, “It feels like the Lufthansa heist at LaGuardia from ‘Goodfellas’.”
The Mets are looking to add reinforcements in their outfield and rotation following the Bichette signing.
Even with their recent moves, the Mets have yet to figure out how to escape the Dodgers’ shadow, writes Joel Sherman. In the piece, Sherman shared some insights into how personally Steve and Alex Cohen tried to recruit Kyle Tucker.
CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson ranked the top 20 prospects in the NL East, with Nolan McLean topping the list.
Sarah Langs explained how the team’s new-look infield could pull off a rare feat on Opening Day.
Around the National League East
One day after losing infielder Ha-Seong Kim for an extended period of time, the Braves inked infielder Jorge Mateo to a one-year deal.
Cole Weintraub identified some notable minor-league additions to keep an eye on in Phillies camp.
The Good Phight talked about Philadelphia needing to rely on pieces from their farm system to keep their window open.
With spring training set to begin in less than one month, there are still some big free agents remaining on the market.
Aaron Judge exemplifies the Yankees’ arc a decade into his career, writes Bryan Hoch.
The Orioles made their biggest splash yet on the international market—eight players from the Dominican Republic and two from Venezuela.
Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue
Lukas Vlahos graded the team’s signing of Bo Bichette.
Elian Peña came in at number 13 on the Amazin’ Avenue list of Mets’ prospects list.
This Date in Mets History
The reunion between Tom Seaver and the Mets ended on this date in 1984, as the White Sox picked up the right-hander after the Mets left The Franchise unprotected in the annual free agent compensation draft.
It appears the Athletics were ready to pull the trigger on a big move.
After acquiring second baseman Jeff McNeil in a trade with the New York Mets earlier this offseason, the A’s weren’t done searching for infield upgrades.
The Green and Gold had a deal in place with the St. Louis Cardinals for eight-time All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Tuesday, citing people briefed on the discussions.
St. Louis ultimately traded Arenado to the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed pitcher Jack Martinez on Jan. 13.
Rosenthal also reported that the A’s would have absorbed more of the $42 million remaining on Arenado’s contract in a potential deal than Arizona will, but, according to someone familiar with Arenado’s thinking, the third baseman, who has a full no-trade clause, indicated he would not approve a trade to the A’s.
Arenado batted an underwhelming .237/.298/.377 with 12 home runs and 52 RBI in 107 games with St. Louis last season.
With Arenado out of the picture, the A’s, according to Rosenthal, intend to use Max Muncy at third base, with Brett Harris and Darell Hernaiz also in the mix.
Eckstein had a ten-year MLB career. One of those seasons was with the Blue Jays. Well, 2/3s of one.
After the 2007 season, with the Jays finishing, once again, in third place, J.P. Ricciardi figured the way to make up the 13-game difference between our Jays and the Red Sox was to add ‘proven winner’ Eckstein.
I’m exaggerating some. J.P. also traded Troy Glaus to get Scott Rolen. He also added Rod Barajas and an aging Shannon Stewart.
Eckstein would give the team that bit of “grittiness” needed. He was a well-liked player. He made a couple of All-Star teams and received MVP votes twice, finishing 11th in 2002, his second MLB season. How he got MVP votes with a 101 OPS+ is anyone’s guess (though he was hit by pitch a league-leading 27 times). I never understand people who decide that a rather average-ish player is a “winner.”
By 2008, his relatively marginal skills had declined. David hit .277/.354/.358 in 76 games as a Jay. Not terrible. But his defensive range vanished (he had yet to play much on artificial turf before that season). FanGraphs has him at a -19.2 UZR/150 at shortstop. I often joke that his hardest hit of the season came when he accidentally elbowed Aaron Hill in the head, putting Hill out for the rest of the season with concussion-like symptoms.
He wasn’t that bad. However, he was miscast as a shortstop and as a leadoff hitter. If he played second and hit ninth, we could have been ok with him.
On August 31st, we traded Eckstein to the Diamondbacks for Chad Beck. He’d finish the season with them and then play two more seasons with the Padres before retiring.
Career, he hit .280/.345/.355 with 35 home runs and 123 steals.
Happy Birthday, David.
Former Blue Jays pitcher Luis Perez turns 41 today.
Perez, a lefty, played parts of three seasons with the Jays from 2011 to 2013. He pitched in 78 games and had a 4.50 ERA. After that, he spent a couple more seasons in the Jays’ minor league system and then played in Japan for two seasons. Then Luis played in the Mexican League for a few more years.
Happy Birthday, Luis.
Ali Sanchez turns 29 today. He caught in 8 games for us last year, 21 at-bats with 5 hits.
The East-West Major League Baseball Classic was played on May 28, 1970, and featured 23 Hall of Famers who either played or coached in the game, including Roy Campanella managing and Sandy Koufax coaching.
Here’s former Dodgers pitcher Al Downing, from Murti:
“All of the players were in unison, totally behind it,” Al Downing said of the mix of Black, Latino and white players who took part.
“It was like being in the locker room with a bunch of All-Stars,” Downing remembered. “It was a tremendous activity and a tremendous idea.”
A fun Dodgers-related factoid from Sarah Langs at MLB.com, who noted that the Mets plan to use new signees Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco at third base and first base, respectively, both at positions they have never started at in the majors. Langs noted that only one MLB team in the last 100 years started two non-rookie infielders at positions with no more than one prior MLB game at said positions — the 1948 Brooklyn Dodgers, with Jackie Robinson at second base and Billy Cox at third base.
Cox homered in a two-hit game against the New York Giants at the Polo Grounds in that game on April 20, 1948, and Robinson’s two-run double in the eighth inning provided the insurance runs need for Brooklyn to prevail in a 7-6 victory.
Wilbur Wood died on Saturday at age 84. He never pitched for the Dodgers, and I never even saw him pitch — his last season was in 1978 — but Wood always occupied a special fondness in my heart. First was the beautiful aesthetics of a left-handed knuckleballer, but also he had an eight-year workhorse stretch with the Chicago White Sox that stands out in the relatively modern era.
From 1968-70, Wood pitched in relief, and led the majors in innings pitched over those three years, pitching 88, 76, and 77 games, leading the American League in appearances each year. Then from 1971-75 he averaged 45 starts and 336 1/3 innings per year, leading the majors in innings over those five seasons. In a 10-day stretch in August 1972, Wood pitched four complete games in a row, with only four runs allowed in 38 innings. He started 49 games that year, and 48 games the next.
Of all the things that went wrong for the 2025 Detroit Tigers from the All-Star break to the end of the regular season, the starting rotation felt like the biggest piece of the puzzle to many fans. Injuries to Jackson Jobe and then Reese Olson left that group vulnerable, and the front office failed utterly to find competent help behind Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Casey Mize. Even so the club still graded out among the best rotations in the American League by year’s end, and in the postseason that backend mattered little and the struggles of the offense took center stage in their heartbreaking Game 5 ALDS loss to the Mariners. Have they done enough this offseason to keep the rotation near the top of the league?
Obviously they haven’t done a lot, but they didn’t really need that much to begin with. Jack Flaherty decided to use his option to return, again solidifying a good top three, though Skubal is obviously doing the heavy lifting for that trio and is projected for 5.9 fWAR, while Flaherty and Mize remain modestly above average with projections of 2.6 and 2.3 fWAR, respectively. Reese Olson is probably their second most effective starter, but he’s currently in the fourth position at 2.1 fWAR, as until he proves otherwise, the Tigers can’t depend on him to hold up to a full year’s work. Then the Tigers signed one of the top KBO names coming back stateside in the form of right-hander Drew Anderson, projected for 1.2 fWAR. After a really good year overseas, he’ll be in the mix competing with Troy Melton (1.2 fWAR) for the fifth spot, with Keider Montero (0.5 fWAR) and Sawyer Gipson-Long (0.5 fWAR) on the outside of that battle.
Beyond them they have relievers like Brant Hurter and Tyler Holton who can spot start, a decent Triple-A starter in Troy Watson, maybe a bit of help from Ty Madden for a spot start or two, and a pair of interesting but fringy lefty prospects in Jake Miller and Andrew Sears who may be able to chip in later on over the course of the season. Jackson Jobe isn’t really expected to return until August, so it’s hard to guess how much help he might be late in the year.
It would certainly have helped to add a top name in this free agent class like lefties Ranger Suarez or Framber Valdez. The latter is still available and has AJ Hinch ties, but as Valdez is the last man standing among really good dependable starters, competition will be fierce. I can’t imagine the Tigers would be involved anyway, but it’s even less likely that Valdez will be available 2-3 weeks down the road once the Tigers have clarity on Skubal’s 2026 salary, and perhaps a better idea of how their broadcast rights situation will play out.
The Tigers may have a small move left ahead of them, probably a cheap backend starter or bullpen arm who will simply get a chance to compete for a job in spring camp, but they’re basically done barring something unforeseen, like trading Skubal, or one of their starters getting injured before we even get to camp.
That should be enough to remain near the top of the American League, as the Tigers currently have the third ranked starting rotation, including depth pieces, in the major leagues according to Steamer projections. Signings of Valdez and other remaining free agents will alter these projections, but basically this is how it lines up with free agency winding down.
Based on Steamer’s WAR projections, the answer is quite obviously yes. I admit I prefer the ZIPS projections, but the differences aren’t usually too striking.
These assessments shouldn’t be so surprising. As bad as our recent memories of the August and September Tigers may be, and despite the natural myopia in a fanbase that leads us to think that other teams are stronger than they are, it doesn’t erase the first three and a half months of the season when the Tigers were steamrolling everyone. No doubt the Tigers rotation situation feels precarious, because if Skubal is hurt for any long period of time they’re in big trouble and at best a middle of the pack rotation. But other than maybe the Red Sox and Dodgers, that’s true of everyone at the top. The Pirates rotation without Paul Skenes is going nowhere, for example.
The American League’s best
If we break it down to just the American League, the Red Sox have the best rotation with Garrett Crochet leading the way and the signing of Ranger Suarez putting them over the top. Of course, they also have several other above average starters in Brayan Bello, Sonny Gray, and Kutter Crawford should he get return in good form from knee issues and the wrist surgery that cost him the 2025 season. It’s not exactly the 2013 Tigers rotation, but it’s very good and they have plenty of depth as well.
We can also find some rotations that aren’t as good at the top, but are certainly deeper in good starters than the Tigers. The Seattle Mariners for example, have Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo, all of whom project to be above average starting pitchers. There’s no one who’ll knock your socks off over the course of a full season, but the first three at least are a little better than any of Olson, Flaherty, or Mize. They also have a better crop of pitching prospects than the Tigers by far right now. Right-handers Ryan Sloan and Jurrangelo Cjintje, along with 2025 first round lefty Kade Anderson, aren’t on the cusp on the major leagues yet and may not be ready in 2026, but all three are comfortably top 100 pitching prospects who will likely all start the year in Double-A. I’d be willing to bet that one of them goes off in 2026 and is at least an average major league starter by the second half.
The Blue Jays are in a similar boat after signing Dylan Cease. Cease should give them strong frontline starter production to lead the way. Trey Yesavage could be every bit as good even if the projections don’t love him due to an inability to handle a pro caliber workload. Kevin Gausman is still a quality starting pitcher though clearly not the guy he was a few years ago. Shane Bieber is a nice bounceback candidate to be an average or better starter again if he’s put Tommy John in the rearview mirror. And while the Tigers signed Drew Anderson from the KBO, the guy above him was Cody Ponce, who signed with the Blue Jays back in December. Finally, Jose Berrios and Eric Lauer are depth guys, but should be able to handle plenty of innings for them.
The Blue Jays also seem like a team who might get into the hunt for Framber Valdez or Chris Bassitt after losing out on both Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. Pivoting to improving their rotation a little more would have them looking like a repeat appearance in the World Series is a good possibility.
The Yankees rotation is reasonably good, but nothing to write home about as things stand. Max Fried is really good, and Carlos Rodon, Will Warren, and Cam Schittler are above average. They’re in the Mariners camp with a lot of well above average starters, though their depth isn’t very good. Warren and Schlittler are young and have a solid chance to break out further this season, and the Yankees will be hoping Garrett Cole returns to form quickly sometime in the summer months as he tries to return from last March’s Tommy John surgery, but the notion that he’ll look like Garrett Cole again before 2027 is a bet with pretty long odds.
Both the Mariners and Yankees rotations do look like they could hold up to losing their top arm better than the Tigers’ can, but that’s probably not worth worrying about. If Skubal gets hurt for more than a month, the Tigers season is presumably going right down the drain. The concern is more losing one or more of their 2-4 arms and having to replace them with a backend type.
Best of the AL Central
Within the division, the Royals look like the Tigers closest competition in terms of starting rotations. Cole Ragans gives them a very good top starter assuming the rotator cuff issue is behind him. Of course he’s been pretty injury prone in general in his career. Kris Bubic is pretty good, and Michael Wacha is an average starter with proven durability. In different ways, they’re both very comparable to Flaherty, Olson, and Mize. Meanwhile, Seth Lugo looks pretty well washed up after his 2024 resurgence, but may still have another good season left in the tank. They don’t have much in the way of depth or top shelf prospects behind that group, however.
The Guardians rotation looks quite average on paper. They don’t have a single pitcher projected to be worth more than 2.5 fWAR. However, they do have several more quality starting pitching prospects nearing the major leagues to provide reinforcements. Lefty Parker Messick should be about ready to give them average production, at least. At the top, they have Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee, who are both 26-year-old quality mid-rotation starters. Williams certainly has the stuff to become a frontline guy this year. The Guardians starting pitching has rarely graded out that well in recent years, but they play great defense and game plan well, typically outperforming their FIP metrics by quite a bit. With right fielder Chase DeLauter and infield masher Travis Bazzana closing in on the big leagues, they may finally have some serious help for Jose Ramirez on the other side of the ball as well. No doubt they’ll be back to go toe-to-toe with the Tigers yet again, even if it’s a mediocre group on paper.
At this point I wouldn’t expect any significant moves throughout the division. Maybe the Royals smell an opportunity and pick up Bassitt or Lucas Giolito. That would get them closer to the Tigers and give them better insurance considering the lack of impact pitching prospects. Trading for pitching at this time of year is nearly impossible, at least in terms of good, established pitchers or top pitching prospects, so beyond those last few good starters available, the field is pretty well set until the trade deadline in July.
No doubt we’ll end up revisiting this topic in more depth with a focus on the AL Central in March, once rosters are closer to being finalized in the runup to Opening Day.
In terms of Steamer’s projections specifically, you can certainly take some issue with using FIP based FanGraphs projections if you like, but I continue to find fWAR better at projecting the next season’s production. Baseball-Reference’s rWAR is more useful for looking back at what did happen last season, as opposed to what a pitcher’s strikeout, walk, and home run rates say should happen in a neutral context without defense involved.
The Tigers are set for now but the front office needs to be ready to adjust
Ultimately, the Tigers don’t need to be clogging up the works with another backend starter. If they aren’t going after Valdez or Bassitt, or perhaps one of Zac Gallen or Lucas Giolito, who could do reasonably well here too, it’s just not worth it. Adding another subpar pitcher on a flier, that they can’t option or easily cut loose should things go poorly, might do more harm than good.
Assuming they aren’t doing any of those things, Scott Harris needs to be better prepared to trade prospects for young pitchers with options as needed at midseason. He tried to avoid giving up anything of note in terms of prospects when the Tigers badly needed pitching help in 2025, and it went very poorly. That can’t happen again if the Tigers find their pitching depth badly stretched for any length of time.
You can’t necessarily stockpile against every contigency that might emerge during the regular season. The best defense is to have another top pitching prospect on the cusp of the major leagues. The Tigers don’t have that, they just have some fifth starter type depth and a few decent spot start candidates. What they need to combat problems that may emerge, is the willingness to adjust make an impactful trade as the need arises.
The Cubs Convention is over, the Bears’ fine season is, too, and only the Blackhawks remain standing in the playoff hunt. But there is hope for the 2026 Cubs squad, after a couple of major and quite a few minor signings, with only a couple of roster decisions to make unless something special happens.
The Pitch Lab is going to have plenty of experimental subjects.
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The @Cubs snagged another Pro Day arm! 💪 Congrats to Trent Thornton on signing with Chicago! Thornton threw 42.1 MLB innings in 2025 before tearing his Achilles last July. The Super Supinator is ahead of schedule with this rehab and ready to contribute. 📈
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DePodesta was cagey when asked if he could confirm the move.
“That’s interesting timing while I’m on the zoom with all you folks,” he said. “No, I probably can’t comment on that. But as I said before, we’ve been in active conversations with other players, and we’re looking to continue to make additions to the team. So I’ll just leave it at that.”
The Rockies had been linked to Castro during and after the Winter Meetings as DePodesta worked to improve the moribund Rockies at the ground floor of a much-needed rebuild. These improvements would need to come from many possible directions, from improved player development to free agent signings and beyond.
DePodesta addressed this multi-faceted approach during his media availability.
“The way we’re looking at it is that every move compounds right on. So you know, we can just continue to get incrementally better. In the long run, it’ll make a significant impact. I also think there are two ways to make this team better. One is to add players that we think could help. The second is to make our existing players better.”
When it comes to players who might help, the new Rockies front office has focused on a few specific positions: the starting rotation, first and second base, and the need for a utility player. For starting pitching the Rockies have already signed the aforementioned Michael Lorenzen and are likely to sign at least one more before spring training. There has been little movement at first base since the team claimed Troy Johnson off of waivers from the Miami Marlins before DePodesta’s hiring was finalized.
For second base and utility, it would appear the Rockies have killed two birds with one stone by bringing in Willi Castro.
The 28-year-old Puerto Rican former All-Star started his career as a shortstop with the Detroit Tigers. However, he has since moved largely to a combination of second base and in the outfield. He can play all three outfield positions, as well as third base. Throughout his seven-year big league career he has logged at least 550 innings at every position but catcher and first base.
While Castro may end up the Rockies’ Opening Day second baseman—especially if Ryan Ritter or Adael Amador fail to impress this spring—his positional versatility will be a factor when it comes to day-to-day lineups.
“We’ve looked at different combinations of players and even thinking about our own players in different combinations,” DePodesta explained. “Right now we do have some players that are versatile on the infield. They they could fill in some different spots. So I think it affords us the opportunity to look at the puzzle a lot of different ways. I think it is safe to say that most of the guys we’re looking at now are primarily infielders, given where we are in the outfield, but we are looking at different spots. I think there are different ways of putting the puzzle together that could make sense, depending on who the players are.”
DePodesta also discussed the state of the outfield, where Castro spent the bulk of his playing time in 2025 with the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs.
“One of the things I think I may have even talked about on my first day here and talking about Coors was the importance of both outfield defense and base running. There’s so much acreage out there defensively that you need to cover, but it also creates a real opportunity for people who are opportunistic base runners.”
Those factors are what led the Rockies to bringing in outfielder Jake McCarthy from the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier this off-season. While Castro isn’t as strong of a defender as McCarthy and lacks the same range, he is a significantly better outfield defender than Mickey Moniak and Tyler Freeman were last season. His 28.8 feet per second sprint speed puts him behind only Brenton Doyle (29.5), Ryan Ritter (29.2), and Braxton Fulford (29.1) for players currently on the roster, while his 89.9 MPH average arm strength is above the 2025 league average for all positions save right field and ranks behind only Yanquiel Fernández (97.2), Doyle (94.2) and Tyler Freeman (92.3). He has also stolen double digit bases in each of his last three seasons, with a career high of 33 with the Twins in 2023.
“You have guys who can play multiple spots in the outfield. Some guys with power, some guys who can really run. I think it’s a nice mix for [manager Warren Schaeffer] and hopefully gives us an opportunity to put together a lineup on any given day that gives us a good chance based on what we’re facing from the opposition.”
There is a potentially unfortunate downside that comes with bringing in Castro, however. While DePodesta voiced both confidence and excitement in the Rockies’ new big league coaching staff and their ability to “effectuate” getting better play out of the club’s existing players, he also noted that prospects may still need to earn their spots on the Major League roster with more experienced depth putting pressure on them.
“If you look at those five outfielders now (Brenton Doyle, Mickey Moniak, Jordan Beck, Jake McCarthy, and Tyler Freeman), four of them are in their arbitration eligible stages, and then Jordan is just behind those guys in terms of service time,” DePodesta said. “So all still young, but now all having some relatively significant experience that’s kind of a nice blend there. I think the young guys are absolutely going to have to earn their way onto the team and into the lineup with those other guys there.”
The Rockies had 13 players make their Major League debuts in 2025, most of which were largely out of necessity with the team’s organizational depth being tested. While some promise was shown, it doesn’t seem like a coincidence that Castro is able to play the same positions as the Rockies’ three most prominent position player debuts in third baseman Kyle Karros, second baseman Ryan Ritter, and corner outfielder Yanquiel Fernández.
Karros, Ritter, and Fernández will likely be given every opportunity to earn a spot on the 26-man Opening Day roster this spring. However, the Rockies may want to send the trio back into the minor league system for additional development, something the team has started investing significant resources into this off-season.
“This week has been a big week in terms of moving on some of that,” DePodesta mentioned when asked about the minor league coaching and development staff. “We’re actively interviewing for a number of different positions throughout the minor leagues, and hope to have some of those folks in place in short order. I think in an ideal world, maybe a couple of would be able to join us next week.”
While Willi Castro’s contract won’t be official until the Rockies make an announcement—and a corresponding move to clear space on the 40-man roster—its likely safe to assume that he will will suit up in purple pinstripes for the 2026 season. Once the move is made official, the role Castro will fill with the Rockies will become more and more clear the closer we get to Opening Day.
Mike Mazzeo of Sports Business Journal takes a look at the business side of the Rockies’ nascent rebuild as Dick Monfort cedes organizational power to his son Walker while he has focused on labor negotiations. With Walker at the helm, the Rockies have begun a push for innovation on both the field and in the front office with the goal of making the team more than just an afterthought in Colorado sports.
The Rockies recently acquired speedy outfielder Jake McCarthy from the Arizona Diamondbacks, adding him to an already crowded outfield group. McCarthy had a down year in 2025, ultimately losing his spot to Alek Thomas. What can the Rockies do to get McCarthy back on track in 2026?
Tonight, National Baseball Hall of Fame president Josh Rawitch will step up to a podium in a live segment on MLB Network and reveal who the Baseball Writers’ Association of America elected to join Eras Committee selection Jeff Kent in the 2026 Hall of Fame class. Several former Yankees are on the ballot and under consideration, though as the latest public balloting results, only a few had a chance at realistic chance at meeting the 75-percent threshold to be inducted in July.
No one at Pinstripe Alley has an actual Hall of Fame vote (some at SB Nation do!), but every year, we play along with the exercise and submit our own ballots. I asked the staff to to consider the eligible candidates and vote for as many as 10 players, just like the BBWAA does. The former Yankees on the ballot are Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte, Andruw Jones, Bobby Abreu, Edwin Encarnación, and perhaps the most likely inductee from the BBWAA this year, Carlos Beltrán, who was on 70.3 percent of 2025 BBWAA ballots. Others in the mix are returning candidates Mark Buehrle, Félix Hernández, Torii Hunter, Dustin Pedroia, Francisco Rodriguez, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Omar Vizquel, and David Wright, as well as new names Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun, Shin-Soo Choo, Gio González, Alex Gordon, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, Nick Markakis, Daniel Murphy, Hunter Pence, and Rick Porcello.
Here’s how PSA voted! We have a three-man class with Beltrán, Abreu, and A-Rod, with Pettitte, Jones, Utley, and King Félix each falling one vote short.
Those are our ballots. Who would have made your cut for Cooperstown?
