Category: MLB

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Team Venezuela and Team Italy meet in the second World Baseball Semifinal at LoanDepot Park on Monday, March 16, with the winner advancing to face the Americans. 

Here are my top Venezuela vs. Italy home run predictions for the showdown, and make sure to also catch our full World Baseball Classic best bets and Venezuela vs. Italy predictions for tonight’s game.

Venezuela home run pick

Wilyer Abreu (+400 at DraftKings)

The Italians are sending veteran righty Aaron Nola to the hill tonight, and he struggled against left-handed hitters last MLB season while serving up a 2.21 HR/9 and .369 wOBA.

As a result, I’m targeting Venezuelan outfielder Wilyer Abreu to go yard tonight.

Abreu hit 21 of his 22 homers last year against righties, while posting a rock-solid .237 ISO, and he has also homered with a respectable .471 slugging percentage during the World Baseball Classic.

Italy home run pick

Jac Caglianone (+500 at DraftKings)

The 2024 sixth overall pick put up big numbers in Triple A last summer with 20 home runs and a monster .348 ISO across just 66 games, and Jac Caglianone is having a major impact in the World Baseball Classic with a homer, four RBI, and a 1.290 OPS through four games.

He also bats left-handed and should see multiple plate appearances against Venezuelan righty Keider Montero tonight, and Montero allowed a 2.14 HR/9 and .384 wOBA to left-handed batters last MLB season. 

How to watch Venezuela vs Italy and game info

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Opening Day is quickly approaching as the World Baseball Classic wraps up, and we're turning our attentions back toward spring training with three MLB picks on Monday, March 16.

I'm making three moneyline spring training predictions, highlighted by the San Diego Padres, as they face a San Francisco Giants lineup missing its best bats.

Spring Training predictions for March 16

Pick #1: Angels moneyline

Los Angeles Angels right-hander George Klassen has looked electric this spring, posting a 2.25 ERA with nine strikeouts over eight innings of work as he pursues a rotation gig to open the regular season.

A strong outing against the Athletics would go a long way toward making that happen. The A's have some big boppers like Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom, but this is a lineup that also struck out 23% of the time (tied for 10th in MLB) last year.

The plus money on the Angels' moneyline offers enough value, especially with no starter yet announced for the A's, that I'll take the plunge.

Pick #2: Padres moneyline

I don't know if the Walker Buehler experiment will work out for the San Diego Padres, but they will keep trying in case they strike gold.

Initially, he seems like a good fade candidate against the San Francisco Giants, but that's before you notice that Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, and Heliot Ramos aren't in the starting lineup. 

While the Friars have neither Manny Machado nor Fernando Tatis Jr. active as they lick their wounds from the Dominican Republic's controversial World Baseball Classic ouster, Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts are still taking reps.

Even if Giants SP Tyler Mahle has yet to surrender a run in spring (he has issued seven walks in six innings), I'll take the more complete offense this afternoon.

Pick #3: Cubs moneyline

I'm really high on Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams this season, but with Jose Ramirez nursing a banged-up shoulder, the offense will likely be without its best weapon against the Chicago Cubs.

Cade Horton hasn't had great results this spring, but he showed that he can hang at the big-league level in his 2025 rookie campaign, boasting a 2.67 ERA over 118 innings.

Lineups haven't been announced, but the edge there should typically favor Chicago. Doubly so with Ramirez on the bench or otherwise limited due to injury.

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The Jays are busing to Jupiter, Florida, to play the Marlins. Google Maps says 3.5 hours, which is a long time on a bus. But a number of the veterans are going for the ride. Even George Springer. He really must want the at bats, because he could easily say ‘I don’t want to go’ and no one would make him. Seven hours on the bus for 3 or 4 plate appearances? He could stay in Dunedin and take as many swings as he wants.

Lineups….with no pitch listed for the Blue Jays, but it is going to be Lazaro Estrada

I’ll admit, the crappy umpiring of last night’s WBC game has put me off baseball at the moment. That last strike call was almost unbelievable, unless you had seen the strike call to Soto an inning before. As my son said, about the one in the ninth: it was closer to the ground than it was to the strike zone.

The conspiracy theorist in me wants to think that the WBC just wanted the US to win. But Occam’s razor would tell you that incompitence is the more plausible explanation.

We don’t generally go out of order with our spring prospect reports, but the timing is too good for Jordan Yost. The Detroit Tigers first round pick last summer stepped to the plate for his first at-bat as a professional on Sunday afternoon and made a little magic. The Tampa native had friends and family in attendance as he dug in with the bases loaded and no outs, trying to just hit something to the outfield. He did, crunching a grand slam to right field on a 1-0, 95 mph fastball from a Triple-A level pitcher. Welcome to pro ball.

The 19-year-old, left-handed hitting shortstop went to the Tigers with the 24th overall pick in the 2025 draft. A graduate of Sickles HS, Yost signed for $3,250,000. That was $500K underslot, helping the Tigers to land Michael Oliveto in the competitive balance round and still afford their seasonal hunt for talented prep arms ready to sign. Yost is the kind of player who seems likely to at least give them their money’s worth, with a chance to be a standout shortstop and one of the most valuable players from this draft.

Right now, the big calling card is pure hitting ability and defense. Yost is already an agile, sure-handed shortstop with a good arm. No doubt he is already enjoying the tutelage of Alan Trammell and the rest of the Tigers development staff, and he has the potential to be one of better defensive shortstops in the league if he continues to refine his game.

Yost makes a lot of good contact at the plate and shows an advanced eye as well. His feel for the barrel is impressive, and he stayed within himself to spray line drives and the occasional home run in his prep career. He has a quick, accurate bat and rarely strikes out. The question is whether he’ll develop enough power to handle major league pitching and do enough damage to become an everyday player. The defense alone could carry him to the major leagues as a bench player. He can hit. The rest is all about the ability to ramp up the raw power over the next few years.

Data before the draft had Yost as one of the few notable players who didn’t top 100 mph in combine BP sessions. The well below average raw power didn’t help his stock and the main criticism of the Tigers pick was that Yost’s lack of power was a limit on his upside and made this a conservative selection. Still, every major prospect site had him in the Tigers top ten this offseason and it was pretty comfortable to rank him sixth in the farm system. The floor on his talent is still useful and the upside is a well above average all around player who can lock down shortstop or play all over the diamond.

So it was particularly striking that Yost’s first appearance on our television or computer screens was him cracking a 102.7 mph grand slam off a 26-year-old Triple-A reliever on Sunday. His contingent in the crowd went nuts. It was a cool moment. But turning around a 1-0, 95 mph fastball in your first at-bat in major league camp was also a signal that Yost is on his way in the power department.

Yost has added that little toe tap since draft day, and you notice how he sits back along with the clean, simple action of the barrel into the zone. That’s a smooth, easy 102.7 mph, caught out front and launched to the pull side.

If the fear on draft day was that Yost wouldn’t grow into something like average power, that swing certainly should open some eyes. The slender, speedy 6’0” shortstop, has plenty of room on his frame to build muscle. Yost looks noticeably stronger through his shoulders and legs already, telling reporters after the game that he’s added 13 pounds since draft day while running even better. Time will tell, but there was some skepticism about Kevin McGonigle’s power potential on draft day as well, and maybe the Tigers just know what they’re doing here. Yost is unlikely to approach McGonigle’s plus power, but average certainly looks attainable. With Yost’s hit tool, that’s plenty.

His defense, pure hitting ability, and his speed all give him plenty of weapons to lean on and he advances into his pro career. He just needs to do enough damage to be playable, and as we suspected that’s not at all a far-fetched hope. The 19-year-old is already in a better spot to start his pro career than it looked on draft day, and the bar much more attainable.

We may see Yost again in the Spring Breakout game this Friday as the Tigers farm system takes on the Pirates prospects in the yearly exhibition game. He should start the year in Lakeland playing shortstop for the Flying Tigers, and with an advanced hit tool it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him hit his way to West Michigan by year’s end. Still, with Bryce Rainer and Franyerber Montilla all at similar stages of development, perhaps they’ll just let Yost cook in Lakeland all summer instead. He’s already taken a nice step up with the raw power since draft day. The next stages may take a few seasons to unfold, but after announcing his presence on Sunday, Jordan Yost is on his way.

We were expecting a terrific game and we got it. We were expecting a slugfest and we got a pitcher’s duel. It also ended on a terrible call.

USA 2, Dominican Republic 1

Team USA hit two solo home runs and Team Dominican Republic only had one as the United States advanced to the World Baseball Classic with a 2-1 win.

Paul Skenes started for Team USA and the Dominican Republic countered with Luis Severino. The Dominican Republic drew first blood on this 401- foot home run by Junior Caminero. [VIDEO]

It’s amazing how Caminero pulled a pitch that was on the corner, up and away.

Team USA put runners on second and third with one out in the top of the third after Bobby Witt Jr. walked and Bryce Harper doubled. But Severino struck out both Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber to end the threat. [VIDEO]

The Dominican Republic had another rally going in the third inning, but Aaron Judge threw this strike to Gunnar Henderson to nail Fernando Tatis Jr. trying to go from first to third. [VIDEO]

Team USA finally got to Severino in the fourth inning. First, Gunnar Henderson led off the inning with a home run. [VIDEO]

After Will Smith lined out, Dominican manager Albert Pujols pulled Severino for Gregory Soto. Roman Anthony greeted him with this 421-foot blast [VIDEO] to make it 2-1.

Skenes pitched 4.1 innings and allowed one run on six hits. He struck out two and walked no one.

Team USA almost made it 3-1 in the fifth inning when Aaron Judge connected off of Rockies reliever Juan Mejia. But Julio Rodríguez had other ideas and made a fantastic catch in center field, possibly stealing a home run. [VIDEO]

The Dominican Republic got a rally going in the seventh inning off of David Bednar. Austin Wells doubled with one out and then Geraldo Perdomo singled to center field. However, the slow-footed catcher stopped at third base. Perdomo then stole second base but with runners on second and third and one out, Bednar struck out Tatis and Ketel Marte to end the threat. [VIDEO]

Team USA did not have another hit after a Kyle Schwarber single in the fifth. So it came down to the ninth when the Dominican Republic had to score off of Mason Miller. Miller struck out Caminero to start the frame but then walked Junior Caminero. A wild pitch and an Oneil Cruz ground out to first put the tying run on third with two outs.

Miller got the count to 1-2 on Geraldo Perdomo before missing the zone with a fastball and a slider. So with a 3-2 count, Perdomo fouled off two 101 mile per hour fastballs before taking this slider down low. [VIDEO]

It’s a shame that pitch was called a strike and for an all-time classic contest to end on a bad call by the umpire. But there’s no ABS system in the WBC, so that’s how the game ended.

Later today, at 7 p.m. CT, Venezuela takes on Italy for the other spot in the WBC final. Michael Lorenzen is scheduled to start for Italy and Tigers pitcher Keider Montero is pencilled in for Venezuela. The game will be broadcast of FS1. We will, of course, have a game thread here later today for this semifinal game.

We haven’t done one of these Question Time things for a few days, but lets try this one? Who of the Jays minor leaguers has impressed you the most this spring?

I’m going to pick Brandon Valenzuela. He’s hitting the ball well, 7 for 23 with a home run and I’ve liked his glove behind the plate. I asked, in the GameThread, the other day, if ‘all things being equal’ would you give the backup catcher job to Valenzuela?

Of course, all things aren’t equal. Tyler Heineman is out of options and he did a good job for us last year, which trumps any 23 at bats in spring training.

Since catchers tend to get dinged up over the season, I’m pretty sure we’ll see Brandon at some point. If only to cause me more confusion with the various Brandon, Brenden, Braydon, Bradan, Brendans on the team. Those guys should get together and pick one and only one form of that name and all use it, all spelled the same. It is bad enough we have guys who just skip a letter out of their names, to make life tougher on me (yes I’m looking at you Jonatan).

Anyway, your turn.

Last week, we took a look at the early returns from the outfield group. This week, we’ll turn our attention to the catchers. The front office addressed this area at last season’s trade deadline by acquiring Nick Fortes and Hunter Feduccia. This duo is likely to handle the majority of the reps at catcher this season, and I expect Dom Keegan will have an opportunity to contribute a bit later this season.

Fortes is a plus defender across the board while Feduccia grades as roughly average in blocking and throwing but above average as a receiver. There aren’t many concerns about their defensive skill sets, but both are looking to turn in better offensive seasons than what they showed so far in their major league careers. Early Spring Training data suggests the Rays may get more offensive production from the catching position in 2026 – particularly through improved contact and stronger raw power indicators.

11.9%

… is the combined whiff rate for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring. That’s a significant improvement from the 26.0% whiff rate Rays catchers posted in 2025.

The front office has quietly been moving towards a more contact-oriented offense, and this change has impacted the catching group as well. More balls in play should lead to a more efficient offensive output – even if some of those balls in play simply move runners along. I don’t think a sub 15% whiff rate is realistic as the wear-and-tear of the position could affect them later in the year, but around 20% seems possible and likely.

104.0mph

… is the 90th percentile exit velocity (EV90: industry standard to measure raw power) for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring. Rays catchers produced a below-average EV90 of 102.8mph last season, so it’s clear that there’s more power in this duo than the collective combinations of catchers the Rays rostered in 2025.

Fortes and Feduccia were briefly part of that group last season, but they accounted for relatively few of the catching group’s batted-ball events. The raw power upgrade heading into 2026 is real and could make a difference for the offense.

6°

… is the average hard-hit launch angle for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring.

They’ll need to find a way to elevate the ball more to tap into their power as we countdown to the beginning of the regular season. While the group last year didn’t hit the ball very hard, they did a nice job of elevating the ball when they did – evident in their average hard-hit launch angle of 12°. Fortes and Feduccia may currently be prioritizing contact over damage, which can sometimes lead to flatter contact profiles.

One way to unlock more power would be to take slightly more aggressive swings, even if that comes with a bit more swing-and-miss.

40.7%

… is the zone-minus-out-of-zone swing rate for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring. While this is better-than-average, Rays catchers ran an even better 43.6% in 2025. However, it was hard for the group last season to leverage their swing decisions into much production because the whiff was prevalent and the power was quite low.

Maintaining strong swing decisions will be key for Fortes and Feduccia, as that approach gives them the best chance to elevate the ball and tap into their raw power. If these trends hold, the Rays should get significantly more offensive production from the catching position than the 70 wRC+ they received in 2025.

This is a Spencer Steer story, really.

Steer, Cincinnati’s most recent 1B, is now a guy who’s slated to play defense all over the place in 2026. In many ways, he’s expected to be one part his former self and another part what Gavin Lux was last year, albeit with (hopefully) improved defense throughout the entire process.

Steer’s going to get a little time at 1B on days when Sal Stewart either needs a break (or is sliding over to 2B or 3B for the day). Steer’s going to get a little time at 2B, potentially, on days when Matt McLain slides over to SS to give Elly De La Cruz a break. Steer is absolutely going to get time in LF routinely, and he’s even begun getting reps in RF this spring, too.

He’s going to get to 550+ PA one way or another, that Steer. How the Reds choose to round out their 26-man roster, though, depends precisely on which spot he’ll be playing most often to get there.

For the first time in seemingly forever, the Cincinnati Reds do appear set to have a pair of final bench bats on their roster who are actually/potentially legitimate big league hitters. This is not a case where we’re hashing it out between the likes of Santiago Espinal, Nick Martini, or Kevin Newman. Jason Vosler is not going to start a handful of April games on this revamped Cincinnati roster.

(This is also assuming Dane Myers isn’t a complete pumpkin, but I digress.)

This time around, the Reds have seemingly stacked their options with bat-first guys in an attempt to help bolster an overall offense that was sluggish, at best, through their 2025 season. And as we enter the final week of Cactus League action, the battle for those final spots on the Opening Day roster has been one where all relevant parties have been living up to their billings.

Here’s a breakdown of the top candidates for the roles, with the likelihood being that just two of these names end up in the dugout come Opening Day:

JJ Bleday

JJ Bleday has the sheen of a free agent signing with actual guaranteed money going his way. He’s a former 1st round pick and top overall prospect as well as a guy with a 20 homer season at the big league level already under his belt. His 2025 season was rough across the board, though he still managed a 92 OPS+ in 344 PA with the Athleics in his ‘down’ year. This spring, he’s hit .294/.351/.529 with a pair of dingers, but more importantly has received pretty glowing evaluation on the contact he’s been making and the diligence with which he’s been trying to tap back into his former successes.

Bleday is a left-handed hitter who can play both outfield corners (and CF in mediocre fashion in a pinch). He’s almost certainly a platoon bat at this point, but putting him in LF against RHP looks like a credible decision at this point in time. The question is, though, whether putting Steer in LF against RHP is a better idea on most days, in which case Bleday – who has one option remaining – isn’t even a starting option in his best-case scenario.

Will Benson

Benson has the sheen of a guy who’s a known quantity to both the manager and the roster, a guy who’s spent three seasons with the Reds (and even more with manager Terry Francona, as both were in Cleveland together for years before Benson became a Red). He’s had his ups, like in 2023 (.275/.365/.498 in 329 PA), his downs (.187/.274/.376 in 388 PA in 2024), and his almosts (.226/.273/.435 in 253 PA in 2025, albeit with elite batted ball data and a brutally unlucky .255 BABIP).

Benson, who also has an option remaining, does a lot of the same things that Bleday does. Benson does have a lot more success on his ledger as a baserunner, however, and would likely profile as the team’s go-to pinch runner whenever that need arose. He’s also mashed in camp this spring (.276/.432/.724 with 4 HR and more walks than Ks), and it’s really hard to imagine him not being on the active roster from the outset.

Nathaniel Lowe

If the Reds chose to carry both Benson and Bleday, that would push Steer into more of the mix on the infield, mixing in at 1B more often and cutting into Sal Stewart’s time at the position. If the Reds opted to carry Nate Lowe, though, instead of one of Benson or Bleday, Steer would have a more regular role in a corner outfield spot (especially if Noelvi Marte has continued struggles in RF).

Lowe, to his credit, has come into camp and hit. He’s posted a .241/.353/.517 line with a pair of homers, that on the heels of hitting .280/.370/.420 in 119 PA with the Boston Red Sox during the second half of a 2025 season that saw him flop with the Washington Nationals in his first stint with the club. He’s a guy who posted a 122 OPS+ across four seasons with the Texas Rangers from 2021-2024, a guy who won a Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, and World Series in those stops.

He’s only 30, but he’s also in camp as a non-roster guy, so adding him would require lopping someone else off the 40-man roster, too. Still, he’s by far and away the most proven bat among this group, and he’s an vastly experienced 1B on a team that projects to have Stewart – who’s barely played 1B – be the other go-to guy at the position.

Rece Hinds

Hinds was the best player on the planet for a week in 2024, and won NL Player of the Week for his efforts. He also tanked terribly once optioned back to AAA that year, and he floundered (.116/.136/.279 in 44 PA) when called back to the big leagues in 2025. However, his prodigious power has been on display again this spring (.364/.417/.788 with 3 HR), and that’s after he destroyed AAA pitching last year for Louisville in his age-24 year (.302/.359/.563 with 24 HR and 21 SB in 435 PA).

He’s a right-handed hitter, albeit one who didn’t hit LHP (.769 OPS at AAA) better than RHP (.914 OPS at AAA) last year. So, he’s not the perfect complement to any of Benson, Bleday, or Lowe, at least on paper. He’s also been streaky to the point where you wonder how well he’d do with limited playing time, which isn’t the best attribute when looking for a ‘bench’ bat.

His upside/ceiling, though, is probably the highest among this group, however, and to pass over him if he’s finally figured it out would be a tough pill to swallow.

With the 2025 Texas Rangers season having come to an end, we shall be, over the course of the offseason, taking a look at every player who appeared in a major league game for the Texas Rangers in 2025.

Today we are looking at pitcher Jack Leiter.

Jack Leiter was better in 2025 than he was in 2024.

Granted, that’s not a terribly high bar to clear. Leiter had an 8.83 ERA and 6.11 xERA in his nine appearances in 2024. That is a bar that is so low to the ground, you don’t exactly have to jump to clear it. You basically have to simply not shuffle your feet.

Still, I don’t mean to damn with faint praise. Leiter made significant strides in 2025. He made 29 starts in the majors and threw 151 innings. He cut his ERA by more than 50%, from 8.83 to 3.86. His FIP dropped from 5.66 to 4.15, his xERA fell from 6.11 to 4.45. Leiter’s K rate went up and his walk and home run rate went down.

Leiter’s ERA was around league average — B-R had him at 5% below league average with an ERA+ of 95, and Fangraphs had him at 5% above league average with an ERA- of 95 — and we will take that from a rookie in his first full season in a major league rotation.

Leiter also got better as the season went along, which is encouraging. After putting up a 4.37 ERA in 80 innings over 16 starts in the first half, with a 7.7 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9, he improved to a 3.28 ERA in the second half over 71 innings covering 13 starts, with a 10.0 K/9 and 3.67 BB/9.

In the second half, he generally avoided the disaster outings that have plagued him in the past. He made it at least five innings in 10 of his 13 second half starts, allowed more than four runs just once, and held opponents to one or two runs in 9 of those 13 starts. To the untrained eye watching from home, he appeared grow calmer on the mound as the season went on, less likely to get visibly frustrated.

Jack Leiter even appeared on a handful of Rookie of the Year ballots, finishing 7th, with Noah Cameron of the Royals being the only pitcher to finish ahead of him.

It was a successful season from a developmental standpoint, I think. Leiter was a league average…I wouldn’t call him an innings-eater, necessarily, but he was an acceptable back of the rotation starter. B-R has him with a 0.4 bWAR on the year, Fangraphs has him at 2.3 fWAR, and I think somewhere around the middle of that is probably about right.

The question with Leiter is, where does he go from here?

There are still significant weaknesses in Leiter’s game. He doesn’t miss enough bats, particularly for someone with his stuff. He walks too many batters. His fastball was much better in 2025, as opponents went from a .443 wOBA/.423 xwOBA against it in 2024 to .281/.330 in 2025, but his newly added sinker got lit up. He added a spike change in 2025, but was wildly inconsistent with it — sometimes it looked like a devastating out pitch, sometimes it was spiking three feet in front of the plate or missing glove side by two feet.

Jack Leiter turns 26 years old in April. His path to the majors was slower than I think everyone — including Leiter himself — expected when he was taken second overall in 2021. He’s now made it, though, and has a firm hold on a rotation spot. If he can tighten his command, improve the consistency on his changeup, he could make another big stride forward, potentially establish himself as a solid #2/3 starter. If he doesn’t, if he treads water or shows minor improvements, he’s a back of the rotatoin guy.

Its possible expectations were too high for Leiter coming out of college, being the #2 pick of the draft and banking the largest signing bonus in the class. That said, the top of the first round in 2021 has ended up being pretty rough.

Henry Davis, selected first overall, has been bad. Jackson Jobe, selected third, missed time due to physical issues, made his major league debut in 2025, was okay for the Tigers, and then underwent Tommy John surgery, which will cost him most of 2026. Marcelo Mayer, the #4 pick, hasn’t stayed healthy and hasn’t been that impressive when he’s been on the field. #5 pick Colton Cowser hit well in 2024, didn’t hit much in 2025, and is looking like a platoon guy. Jordan Lawlar, at #6, has missed a ton of time due to injuries and is moving to the outfield. The rest of the top 10 consists of Frank Mozzicato and Benny Montgomery, who haven’t made it past AA and are fringe prospects at best now, Sam Bachman, who is now a reliever on the AAA/majors shuttle for Anaheim, and Kumar Rocker, who, well, we know what’s going on there.

So Jack Leiter, at this point, still looks like one of the best picks in the top 10 of the 2021 first round. If he can build on his 2025 season and take another step forward, he could establish himself as one of the best picks in 2021, period.

Previously:

Gerson Garabito

Tyler Mahle

Kyle Higashioka

Adolis Garcia

Luis Curvelo

Alejandro Osuna

Blaine Crim

Jake Burger

Jacob Webb

Nick Ahmed

Jon Gray

Carl Edwards Jr.

Josh Jung

Leody Taveras

Dustin Harris

Marc Church

Luke Jackson

Danny Coulombe

Wyatt Langford

Dylan Moore

Michael Helman

Evan Carter

Cole Winn

Rowdy Tellez

Dane Dunning

Marcus Semien

Billy McKinney

Jose Corniell

Jonah Heim

Cody Freeman

Sam Haggerty

Jacob deGrom

Merrill Kelly

Caleb Boushley

Justin Foscue

Nathan Eovaldi

Chris Martin

Patrick Corbin

Joc Pederson

Phil Maton

Corey Seager

Tucker Barnhart

Some years, when I reflect on this exercise, I feel pretty proud of myself.

Other times, like now, I look back and wonder why anyone lets me communicate to anyone about the Philadelphia Phillies.

Yes, it’s that time again for my yearly plunge into the crystal ball; my 10 bold Phillies predictions. But before we gander at what I’m going to get wrong this year, let’s take a look at how I screwed up the predictions this time last year.

• Bryce Harper leads the Phillies (and the NL) in home runs
• Zack Wheeler finally wins his Cy Young
• Jesus Luzardo finishes in the top 5 of Cy Young voting
• Phillies starters lead MLB in WAR
• Bryson Stott makes the All Star team
• Taijuan Walker makes at least 4 starts for the Phillies
• Phillies trade for Taylor Ward at the trade deadline
• John McMillon emerges as the Jeff Hoffman replacement
• Trea Turner scores 115+ runs
• Phillies win the World Series

Let’s get the good ones out of the way. Luzardo was close, finishing in the top-7. Phils starters DID lead MLB in fWAR, by a LOT. And Walker made… 21 STARTS! With a 4.25 ERA!

I had some near misses. Turner was great atop the lineup, but scored 94 runs. Wheeler might have won the Cy Young if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but probably would have been a finalist with Cristopher Sanchez and Paul Skenes. Stott did not make the All Star team, but played like an All Star in the second half. And the Phils did trade for a right-handed outfielder, although it was Harrison Bader, not Taylor Ward.

The big whiffs? Harper most definitely did not lead the Phils (or the NL) in homers, no one has heard from John McMillon since becoming last spring’s wonderkid, and no, the Phillies most definitely did NOT win the World Series.

Win some, lose some. Let’s take another crack at it.

Zack Wheeler finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting

Since the start of the 2021 season, no pitcher in baseball has accumulated more fWAR than Wheeler’s 26.7. He has finished 2nd in Cy Young voting twice. He is attempting to return from a blood clot in his shoulder caused by thoracic outlet syndrome, and by all accounts down in Clearwater, things are looking really good and he appears to be on track to begin his season in the Phillies’ rotation starting in mid-April.

If Wheeler looks anything like he did for the vast majority of last year before he got hurt, he’ll absolutely be a top-five Cy Young candidate, even if he misses a few starts at the beginning of the season.

Ace-level Wheeler turns this rotation from pretty good, to the best in baseball.

This time, Cristopher Sanchez wins the Cy Young

Sanchez is poised to make 2026 a clone of his ‘25 season.

Cristopher Sánchez tonight for the Dominican Republic:

5 IP
2 H
0 R
1 BB
8 K
63 pitches (43 strikes)
18 swing & misses
Max velo 96.9 mphpic.twitter.com/bpBLS6PAdK

— John Foley (@2008Philz) March 14, 2026

He’s probably baseball’s best left-handed pitcher not named Tarik Skubal right now, and although it’s going to be hard for anyone to beat Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes in the NL Cy Young race, let’s just assume someone other than the Pirates star takes home baseball’s top pitching prize in ‘26. After finishing runner-up a season ago to Skenes, Sanchez is going to have a slightly better season and take home his first Cy Young.

Kyle Schwarber clears 50 homers again

Coming off an NL MVP runner-up campaign with 56 homers, Schwarber has spent this spring slugging bombs for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.

KYLE SCHWARBER HIT THAT BALL A MILE pic.twitter.com/CjUSnNA6lK

— SleeperMLB (@SleeperMLB) March 8, 2026

The bat speed is still elite. He can hit left-handers. He’s in great shape. There’s no reason to doubt Schwarber’s ability to have another monster power season at the plate. I don’t think he gets to 56, but I say he pops 50+ homers again.

Bryce Harper finishes with a worse OPS than last year

Harper is obviously upset about Dave Dombrowski’s “not elite” comments last October, and has spent much of the winter and spring talking about it. He’s painted himself into an uncomfortable corner, though, talking so much about it that he almost has to be better than he last year to prove himself right and Dombrowski wrong.

Early spring results are mostly meaningless, but we can all recognize that if Harper had spent the spring and the WBC wailing on the ball, we’d all be very happy and excited that the Phils’ first baseman was going to back up his assertion that he is still an “elite” player. But it’s been a very quiet spring for Harper so far, and so the opposite must at least be considered.

I’m not sure Harper is going to be able to fix this narrative. I wish all my bold predictions could be positive, but I just don’t see Harper being a whole lot better than he was a season ago. I truly hope I’m wrong, but my bold prediction is that he finishes with an OPS lower than last year’s .844. Prove me wrong, please!

4 Phillies starters make the NL All Star team

Yes, that’s right, Aaron Nola as an All Star is a boldprediction.

I really like what I’ve seen from him so far, and his WBC start for Team Italy against Team Mexico, along with some encouraging starts in Clearwater, have me bullish on an “even year” Nola rebound. I think he will join Wheeler, Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo as All Stars (although I’ll bet one won’t be able to pitch due to availability).

Justin Crawford gets more ROY votes than Andrew Painter

Thus far, I have been more impressed with Justin Crawford’s spring than Andrew Painter’s. Of course, it’s a very small sample size and spring results don’t mean much in the regular season. Both players are penciled in to break camp as regulars, with Crawford playing everyday in center field and Painter holding down the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

After an early extra-base hit barrage, Crawford is tied for 2nd (Bryson Stott) on the team in hits (8), but with just a .638 OPS. Nevertheless, he’s played very good defense in center, and only needs to be slightly more impactful with the bat to be a 3-win player. Painter’s early numbers looked good, and in his start on Friday, his 97 mph fastball and four-pitch mix was very effective until the third inning when his fastball flattened and got hit around.

Andrew Painter's day is done after 2.2 innings of work. He got 11 whiffs on the day.

Velo went down in the third inning Orioles hitters were able to do some damage. #Phillies definitely are pacing Painter, will be watching the fastball shape closely going forward. pic.twitter.com/eeYe1Y8rIT

— Phillie Phacts (@PhilliePhacts) March 13, 2026

I think Painter is going to struggle a bit more in his rookie season than Crawford, and it’s possible neither player gets much Rookie of the Year love, but at the moment, let’s give the edge to Crawford, who isn’t trying to rediscover himself as a pitcher after Tommy John surgery.

Jhoan Duran leads the NL in saves

The Phillies have not had a regular closer from the start of a season during this entire four-year run that started in 2022. In Duran, they now do. He has spent the spring learning a new type of splitter, one that acts as a bit of a changeup. Can you imagine another plus-pitch to off-set his splinker and 100+ mph fastball?

Yeah, I think he gets 45-50 saves to lead the NL.

Otto Kemp has more HRs than Adolis Garcia

I wrote about what Adolis Garcia needs to do to reverse the negative trends we’ve seen over the last two years, and I’m not optimistic he can do it. I’m also not as bullish on Otto Kemp as a “solution” to the Phillies’ outfield problems, either, but if I had to choose a bold outcome for the outfield, this would be my best guess.

I think Garcia is going to struggle. I think he’s going to lose playing time. I believe Kemp will hit reasonably well in the platoon with Brandon Marsh. So, let’s say Kemp gets 15 HRs for the Phillies this season, Garcia gets 13.

That’s pretty depressing, huh?

Alec Bohm & Bryson Stott combine for 35+ HRs

Last year, Stott hit 13 dingers. Bohm slugged 11. That’s 24, so I’m essentially predicting they more than double their combined total from last year.

Both are raking down in Clearwater, swinging for power and having great ABs. I wish I could say I was 100% confident these two former first round picks were going to have their long-awaited breakout seasons, but I am just not confident that’s ever going to happen.

That said, this is all about making bold predictions, and predicting these two players to combine for 35 or more blasts in 2026 is pretty darn bold. So, let’s go with it.

Trea Turner named MVP of Philly All Star Game

I’m not making a prediction on where the Phillies are going to finish this time around, at least not in this space. I honestly do not have a good sense of what to expect from this team that has been through so much over the last three years.

To celebrate the nation’s 250th birthday, the All Star Game is coming to Philadelphia. While I think the Phils will have four starting pitchers named to the All Star Game, I also believe they’ll get Duran, Schwarber and Turner on the team as well. And to celebrate the game being played at Citizens Bank Park for the first time, I will predict Trea will get a base hit in extra innings that brings home a walk-off win for the National League, earning him MVP honors as his city celebrates around him.

Hopefully, that won’t be the high point of the season!

Although the American League West over the last handful of seasons has been as tight a division as ever, it’s had a clear best team since the mid-2010s: the Houston Astros. They dominated the AL West and proved themselves time and time again as a juggernaut not just within the division, but within Major League Baseball as well.

Now, it’s the Seattle Mariners’ turn to reclaim the mantle heading into 2026, following a 2025 campaign that saw the M’s snatch the AL West crown from the Astros after Houston had won four titles in a row and six in seven seasons (with the only outlier being the Oakland Athletics in the COVID-shortened 2020). The pressure will also be on them to finally snap their franchise-long drought of pennants, as they came closer than ever before in 2025 — topping the famous 1995 and 2001 teams — falling in an ALCS Game 7 heartbreaker to the Blue Jays.

2025 record: 90-72 (1st, AL West)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 88-74 (1st, AL West)

If there’s one team that is known for playing a specific brand of baseball across MLB, it’s the Mariners. While they are obviously more successful when they have the offense they did in 2025 — the ninth-ranked offense in all of baseball per fWAR and tied for the second-best in regard to wRC+ — their pitching comes first. Whether it’s the starting rotation or the bullpen, there’s something to love about the arms that have been assembled out in the northwest.

Beginning with the Mariners’ rotation, their top three pitchers are about as good as any in MLB. One might think it was Luis Castillo or Logan Gilbert who led the way statistically for Seattle, but it wasn’t. Instead, it was Bryan Woo, who pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA and a 3.33 xFIP, along with a staff and rotation-leading 3.6 fWAR. It was an entire fWAR point higher than both Castillo and Gilbert, who finished with 2.6, although Gilbert pitched upward of 50 innings fewer than the other two. And, of course, the fourth man in the rotation, George Kirby, can’t go unmentioned. He also finished with over 2.0 fWAR, and despite his 4.21 ERA, he probably deserved better according to the other metrics tracked, as his xERA of 3.88 and xFIP of 3.25 put him in a good spot to improve for 2026.

The name that made the biggest noise out of the bullpen was right-hander Andrés Muñoz, who finished with a 1.73 ERA and a 1.9 fWAR in 62.1 innings pitched. The 27-year-old has been about as consistent as anyone could ask for over the last three seasons, and the Mariners are going to look to him in high-leverage situations just as they did last year.

Obviously, though, the name that needs no introduction on the hitting side is catcher Cal Raleigh. He clubbed 60 home runs — a record for both catchers and switch-hitters — and tallied up 9.1 fWAR with a 161 wRC+ last season, competing with the Yankees’ Aaron Judge for the AL MVP award. Although he finished as the runner-up, Raleigh came away with his first All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger, and is looking to dethrone Judge from the top of the American League food chain in 2026. The 29-year-old isn’t projected to have nearly the kind of season he had in 2025, but he is still projected to be a top player in the AL, with FanGraphs suggesting that he will hit somewhere around the 40 home run mark with a 130 wRC+ and 6.4 fWAR.

Along with Raleigh, the Mariners over the last couple of seasons have accrued plenty of talent to keep their bid for a World Series about as strong as possible. There’s Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, and Josh Naylor, whom the Mariners secured on a five-year deal worth $92.5 million this offseason after bringing him in last year, along with 21-year-old secon dbaseman Cole Young, who was called up last season and played 77 games. There’s also the versatile Brendan Donovan, new from the Cardinals as a trade addition, and long-ago Yankees farmhand Rob Refsnyder, who turned himself into dangerous platoon bat for the Red Sox and joined the M’s in free agency.

All these names are now on a team that was on the brink of its first Fall Classic in 2025. Now, they’ll look to make it even further and vie for a championship in 2026.

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More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.

Spring training storylines are heating up while the World Baseball Classic continues to showcase baseball’s global reach — and the Royals Rundown Podcast is here to break it all down.

In this episode, hosts Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco examine the latest developments from Kansas City Royals spring training, including roster battles, injury updates, and standout performances from players fighting for roles before Opening Day. The hosts analyze how the Royals’ current roster construction is evolving and which prospects could impact the team as the season approaches.

The conversation also extends to the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals, highlighting dramatic performances from powerhouse teams like Venezuela and Japan, while discussing Team USA’s mentality and expectations as the tournament progresses. Along the way, Jacob and Jeremy explore the cultural significance of international baseball, how global competition influences MLB talent pipelines, and what the tournament could mean for the future of the sport.

Beyond on-field analysis, the episode tackles broader baseball topics, including MLB’s youth development initiatives, accessibility challenges for young players, and the importance of growing the game in underrepresented communities. The hosts also share reactions to Eric Hosmer’s broadcasting debut, discuss the entertainment side of baseball culture — from the Savannah Bananas to fan engagement — and review MLB The Show 26, offering impressions on the latest features and gameplay improvements.

Correction: Jeremy said that Team Venezuela’s manager is Albert Pujols. It is Omar López.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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