Monday's MLB Trade Deadline featured over 30 unique trades. Even so, the name you heard discussed the most in the days that followed was a 21-year-old starting pitcher with only 30 professional starts to his name. Yet, Anthony Eyanson was one of the highest-ranked prospects traded at the deadline and the headliner in a shocking six-player trade that sent Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman to the Boston Red Sox.
It's been a quick and surprising path for Eyanson from starting pitcher at LSU to headline prospect in the biggest trade at the MLB deadline.
After transferring from UC-San Diego to LSU in 2025, Eyanson struggled to begin the collegiate season. However, he seemed to find his footing in the final two months of the season and eventually was a key contributor on a Tigers team that won the national championship. At the end of the season, he ranked third in NCAA Division I in both wins (12) and strikeouts (152 in 108 innings), and worked as a reliever to close out LSU's final game in the NCAA regionals and then earned a win in the final games in the super regional and College World Series. Yet, some questions remained about his MLB future given that he had only one season at a top college program.
The Red Sox selected him in the third round of the 2025 MLB Draft, at 87th overall. Then immediately got to work on the key question that many had for Eyanson: his velocity.
"When I was first drafted, it was more so just continuing to live in the zone with all my pitches and really just focus on the velocity for me," revealed Eyanson at this year's Futures Game. "That was a big one...Just working to throw harder and throw everything harder in the zone more often."
That velocity training covered a few different areas for Eyanson, including simply adjusting to a more demanding professional baseball schedule.
"For me, it was just a mix of throwing more," reflected Eyanson. "I threw twice in college: in the bullpen and in the game, so hardly ever. Then just throwing a lot harder more often, just getting my body used to those higher outputs. Then pairing that up with training room stuff. You know, I'm in there about four, five times a week, and you know, weight room, just crushing the weights. That's always been my thing, but just pairing those better with one another."
That training led to crucial gains for Eyanson early in 2026. According to Ian Cundall, a prospect writer for Baseball America who focuses on Red Sox prospects, "Eyanson’s fastball velocity spiked into the high 90s this spring, and he touched 100 mph in the Spring Breakout game." Considering Eyanson has a strong build at 6'2" and 210 pounds, and is "a very good athlete, moves well and has a controlled, repeatable delivery," the added velocity seemed like the missing piece.
In 16 appearances and 15 starts between High-A and Double-A this season, Eyanson has a 1.32 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 94/26 K/BB ratio in 68.1 innings. However, the development has not been fully linear.
According to Cundall, "In the regular season, [Eyanson's] velocity has been down closer to where it was in college, as he’s sitting 92-95 mph and has maxed out at 97.1 mph." As a result, "his strikeout totals declined in June, and his control came and went, but he righted things in July, striking out 30 in 17.2 innings." He has a 12.4% walk rate in 48 innings at Double-A and a 32% strikeout rate, which is great, but not quite the 48% rate he posted in Single-A.
As Cundall noted, even at a lower velocity, Eyanson's fastball still shows above-average bat-missing ability, but his ceiling becomes infinitely higher if he can find a way to hold that upper-90s velocity. Just because he hasn't been able to do it in his first full professional season doesn't mean he won't be able to do it in the future. Particularly because Eyanson is also continuing to grow in terms of his understanding of the game and pitching mechanics.
"I think I'm mentally just in a different space [than at LSU]," he reflected. "I'm able to understand it more, with having more familiarity with it. I was kind of just worried about velo and vertical break when I was at LSU, but now there's an understanding of the underlying factors that go into making a pitch nasty... For me, being a higher slot, I'm really pretty much just looking at my tilt, and how high I can get my arm up there in the slot, and that's going to help me optimize my shapes for sure...I think I just had to increase my information and knowledge on that."
Increasing his knowledge of his arm tilt and how he can optimize his pitch shapes has helped him round out his arsenal beyond his fastball. In Cundall's scouting report, he noted that "Eyanson’s secondaries are quite impressive and the best part of his arsenal. His mid-80s gyro slider is his best pitch and has a whiff rate above 50%. He uses it almost as much as his fastball and has an advanced feel for it. He can command it in and out of the zone depending on the situation, and hitters struggle to square it up. His high-70s curveball also shows premium bat-missing ability, but is more of a chase pitch that is effective when used to finish off at-bats. His splitter also plays best when ahead in the count, as it has a strike rate around 50%, but when he lands it competitively, it’s hard for hitters to lay off it as it looks like a strike until falling off the table late."
In his own words, developing that splitter has been a big focus for Eyanson: "I think that's something that I've taken good strides in first at High-A and also at spring training."
Yet another piece of the puzzle for Eyanson is the introduction of a new cutter, which is a staple pitch in the Red Sox organization. Eyanson laughed when asked if all of the pitchers were asked to throw one, but he did acknowledge that it's a pitch he thinks has been a good weapon for him.
"I've had some good results with that [cutter], so that's been going pretty well. I'm just continuing to hammer that down...For me, it's something that's helped me have a medium between the fastball and the slider, and just make every pitch a little bit better because you can't sit on four, you have to sit on five. So that's pretty much how I see it."
A true five-pitch mix with a repeatable delivery and a bat-missing fastball is certainly the profile of a pitcher any team would be excited to have, and the caliber of talent it would take to land a player like Adley Rutschman. All of that gives Eyanson the profile of a mid-rotation starter. However, if the Orioles can find some way to get the 21-year-old to maintain the velocity he flashed in the spring, his ceiling would be even higher. That would be a pretty major win for an Orioles organization that has struggled to produce a difference-making starting pitching prospect.
EVERETT, WA - JUNE 07: Pitcher Hunter Dryden #52 of the Eugene Emeralds pitches during a game between the Eugene Emeralds and Everett AquaSox on June 7, 2026 at Funko Field in Everett, Washington. (Photo by Henry Rodenburg/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Apologies for not having a weekend Minor League Baseball roundup. With the San Francisco Giants being so active at the deadline, I just wasn’t able to find the time to cover the weekend’s games.
But I’m here to talk about what went down on Tuesday! Just five games for the Giants affiliates, as AA Richmond had their game postponed. They’ll play a doubleheader tomorrow.
All listed positions in the roundup are the position played in that particular game.
News
The big news on the farm, of course, is the infusion of talent that the Giants got at the trade deadline, which featured 6 prospects, plus 2 young rostered players. You can catch up on all the moves here. If you want to know where the new guys rank, well … ask 10 people and you’ll get 10 different answers. But MLB Pipeline has already adjusted their Giants top 30 to include the new prospects, and 5 of the 6 made the cut (it’s worth noting that the Pipeline top 30 doesn’t yet have the 2026 draftees).
LHP Ramon Marquez tops the list at No. 7 (the highest-ranked pitcher with Jackson Flora not yet included), with LHP Henry LaLane No. 9, RHP Miguel Mendez No. 14, shortstop Joniel Hernandez No. 21, and infielder Kaeden Kent (Jeff’s son!) No. 22. Hernandez has been assigned to the DSL Giants Black team, while Marquez, Lalane, Mendez, Kent, and RHP Marty Gair have been assigned to High-A Eugene. Rostered RHP Anthony Molina was optioned to AAA Sacramento.
In more exciting news, second baseman Diego Velasquez (No. 31 CPL) has, at long last, been promoted from AA Richmond to Sacramento. Very, very deserving. Outfielder Victor Bericoto (No. 35 CPL) is beginning a rehab assignment with Sacramento, while center fielder Jonah Cox was activated off the IL and optioned to Sacramento.
A pair of RHPs were released: Eugene relief prospect Austin Strickland, and Sacramento veteran Michael Fulmer.
AAA Sacramento (62-44)
Sacramento River Cats beat the Round Rock Express (Rangers) 6-4 Box score
Tuesday was center fielder Jonah Cox’s birthday, and it was perhaps a mixed bag of a cake day for him. On the downside, he was optioned to AAA after being officially activated off of the Injured List. On the upside, he had a lovely day at the outdoor office, hitting 3-5 and stealing 2 bases.
Tuesday’s roster moves — the Giants not only optioned Cox, but purchased the contract of Eddys Leonard, who is normally an infielder, to be the 4th outfielder in the Majors — paint a pretty clear picture that the team wants more development out of Cox. That really shouldn’t be even remotely surprising given that he was called up directly from AA, the result of numerous injuries and a desire for a right-handed hitting center fielder. The Giants presumably never felt Cox was fully ready for the Majors, or he wouldn’t have been in AA to begin with, especially as his teammate, Scott Bandura, had been promoted ahead of him.
Now Cox gets to develop at the appropriate level, and so far, so good. Through 5 games at the level, he’s 9-22 with a triple, a walk, and 4 stolen bases. Keep it up, Jonah … and if you do, we’ll see you in San Francisco again soon.
Left fielder Turner Hill — who was perhaps upset at being passed over for Leonard (though not surprising as that would have given the Giants 4 outfielders, all of whom are lefties), had another nice game, hitting 1-2 with 2 walks and a stolen base.
With that, Hill now has a stunning 20-game hitting streak, albeit one that was really helped out by the defense, as the video evidence reveals. His numbers during that time are fairly eye-popping: 36-82 with 8 extra-base hits, 8 walks, and just 6 strikeouts. He can’t stop hitting! The 27-year old is up to a .908 OPS and a 141 wRC+, with 23 stolen bases in 27 attempts. He continues to be one of the Pacific Coast League’s premier contact hitters: among the 125 PCL hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this year, he’s 4th in average (.343), 3rd in strikeout rate (8.3%), and 3rd in swinging strike rate (3.6%). What a season he’s having … perhaps it will end with an MLB debut.
20. Games. Straight. 🫨
Hill’s single marks a 20-game hit streak, the 4th longest in the PCL this season, and 3rd longest in franchise history! pic.twitter.com/NF5wXT1twU
Second baseman Thomas Gavello had a nice game, hitting 1-3 with a double, a walk, a stolen base, and a strikeout. He continues to be the do-everything player for Sacramento: he’s loved by coaches and players, and plays all over the diamond. The numbers aren’t very good for the Antioch native: he has a .191 average, a .645 OPS, and a 74 wRC+. But he’s a valuable piece to have in AAA.
Not great days for the higher profile players on the roster, as right fielder Bo Davidson (No. 4 CPL) went 0-2 with 2 walks and a stolen base; third baseman Parks Harber (No. 17 CPL) hit 1-4 with a strikeout; and Bandura, the designated hitter, went 0-4. But catcher Adrián Sugastey hit 2-4, as he continues to perform well in his 1st AAA stint.
LHP Cesar Perdomo had a kind of funny start. He went 6.1 innings into the game, which is the deepest he’s gone since getting promoted, and a rarity for a pitcher in the Giants system. That said … he wasn’t particularly strong, giving up 7 hits (including a home run to former big leaguer Jarred Kelenic), 3 walks, and 4 runs, and only striking out 2 batters.
The adjustment to AAA continues to be a struggle for Perdomo, who had a bit of a breakout in AA this year prior to his promotion. Through 5 starts in the PCL, the 24-year old has a 7.77 ERA and a 6.57 FIP, with just 19 strikeouts to 10 walks in 22 innings, and 5 home runs allowed. There’s a lot of work to be done, but then again, that’s what Minor League Baseball is all about!
The bullpen was perfect, as RHP Wilkin Ramos retired all 3 batters he faced, with a strikeout, while RHP Spencer Bivens set down all 5 hitters, with 3 strikeouts.
A fantastic game for the Emeralds, who had great performances from seemingly everyone who stepped onto the field.
It started with a tone-setting performance on the mound from RHP Hunter Dryden, who had his 2nd phenomenal outing in a row. It’s been a tough 2nd season for the 2024 17th-rounder, who has a 4.98 ERA and a 5.50 FIP on the year. The low point was, hopefully, a July 23 start in which he gave up 12 baserunners and 9 earned runs while making it through just 3.1 innings.
But in his next start? 5 shutout frames with just 5 baserunners and 7 strikeouts. And this game? 6 brilliant innings with just 3 hits, 1 walk, and 1 run allowed, plus 5 strikeouts. What a showing!
Dryden needed just 81 pitches to get through those 6 innings, throwing 51 strikes along the way. His lone hiccup was a solo home run allowed, which has been his kryptonite this year: after ceding just 3 long balls in 93 innings in his debut with Low-A San Jose last year, Dryden has already given up 14 home runs this year, in 81.1 innings. He’ll need to work on that, as well as on his walks, but there’s certainly something intriguing in there, and he has 10.4 strikeouts per 9 innings this season.
An encouraging performance from RHP Liam Simon, who threw 20 of 32 pitches for strikes while recording 2 shutout innings, with 1 hit, 1 walk, and 2 strikeouts. Simon is still really struggling with finding the strike zone, so this was at least a step in the right direction. His stuff is nastier than nasty, as the 53 strikeouts in 36 innings suggests … but also wilder than wild, as evidenced by the 33 walks.
Now, onto the hitters. The biggest day belonged to third baseman Zander Darby, who hit 2-4 with a 2-run home run, while also drawing 2 walks and striking out once. Remarkably, Darby was 1 of 4 Emeralds hitters to draw multiple walks, as the team registered a whopping 12 on the day.
Darby, a 23-year old who was taken in the 12th round of the 2024 draft, has been red hot lately following a dismal June and a slow start to his July. In his last 16 games, the lefty is 22-66 with 8 home runs, 5 doubles, and 8 walks, albeit with 20 strikeouts. That remains the issue with Darby’s game: he has a .272 batting average and a .200 isolated slugging mark, leading to an .818 OPS and a 116 wRC+ … but he has a 32.0% strikeout rate.
Second baseman Zane Zielinski had a nearly perfect game, reaching base in all 5 of his plate appearances, with 2 singles and 3 walks. The only stain on his resume was that he was caught stealing. Zielinski, who just turned 25, is back in Eugene after being returned to High-A from AA Richmond following the promotion of Gavin Kilen (No. 7 CPL). Zielinski has done quite well with the Emeralds, but really struggled with Richmond.
A fantastic game for shortstop Jhonny Level (No. 3 CPL), who hit 2-3 with 2 walks and a sacrifice fly. That’s a great recovery for Level, who had hit 0-10 with 7 strikeouts over his prior 2 games. In all, Level has been struggling a bit to find hits lately: in his last 10 games, the 19-year old switch-hitter is 8-40 with 9 strikeouts. But he’s finding other ways to do damage: 3 of those 8 hits were home runs, and he’s drawn 8 walks during that time span. There will always be bumps and bruises for someone so much younger than his peers … but on the whole, it’s a .781 OPS and a 106 wRC+ for Level, and those numbers are pretty awesome.
A pair of players with limited High-A experience hit well, as first baseman Hayden Jatczak went 2-5 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout, while left fielder Jose Ramos hit 1-2 with a double, 2 walks, and a sacrifice fly. Jatczak, a soon-to-turn 25-year old righty, has an .854 OPS and a 132 wRC+ through 9 games with Eugene; Ramos, a 23-year old righty, has an .891 OPS and a 153 wRC+ through a dozen games at the level.
Low-A San Jose (58-45)
San Jose Giants beat the Stockton Ports (A’s) 5-4 Box score
An exciting game for the Baby Giants, who used a 2-run 9th inning to come from behind and walk off the Ports. And they did it in extremely exciting fashion: after 2 outs were recorded, third baseman Dario Reynoso, who hit 1-4 with 2 strikeouts, drew a walk to bring the winning run to the plate. That winning run was first baseman Jeremiah Jenkins, who planted a ball over the wall to send everyone home happy.
IT'S A WALK-OFF! Taking their first lead of the game when it mattered most, Jeremiah Jenkins launches one deep into the San Jose night as the Giants win 5-4. pic.twitter.com/2LdexPzzxo
That swing had to feel great for Jenkins, who went 1-4 with a walk and a strikeout. Not only was it his 1st hit of the day, but it was his 1st hit in his last 6 games … He had 5 straight donut games, and was nearing a 6th when he instead walked it off. That’s how you turn things around!
Jenkins, a 23-year old taken in the 14th round of the 2024 draft, oozes power but struggles with contact. His .241 isolated slugging ranks 12th out of the 94 Cal League hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season, and his 14 home runs are tied for 8th. He also has a 16.7% walk rate that ranks 10th. A whole lot to love!
The contact brings it down quite a bit, though. Jenkins has just a .237 average and a 30.1% strikeout rate, which gives him an .850 OPS and a 111 wRC+. Not bad numbers, but not great ones for someone who is nearing the 700 plate appearance mark in Low-A.
As previously mentioned, Jenkins’ 14 homers are tied for 8th in the league. And the person they’re tied with? His teammate, right fielder Cam Maldonado (No. 34 CPL), who hit 2-3 with a solo blast and a walk. Maldonado, who was a 7th-round pick last year, really struggled when he returned from an IL stint in late July. In his 1st 9 games since coming back from injury, the righty hit just 3-33 with 1 home run, 0 doubles, 5 walks, and 16 strikeouts. But in 3 games since then, he’s recovered to hit 5-8 with 2 homers, 2 doubles, 3 walks, and 0 strikeouts. That’s much more like it! Still, he’s only floating around league average after that slump, as he has an .838 OPS and a 102 wRC+.
CAM GOES BOOM. Cam Maldonado skies one out down the left field line at a 39 degree launch angle! pic.twitter.com/4p20je5aEk
Second baseman Lorenzo Meola (No. 23 CPL) continued his doubles surge, as he went 2-5 with a pair of doubles and a strikeout. That gives him 32 doubles on the year, which is 3rd among all Minor Leaguers. Not 3rd among Cal League hitters or 3rd among Giants prospects … 3rd among all Minor Leaguers. And 1 of the 2 names ahead of him is another Giants prospect, Kilen! 13 of those doubles have come since the start of July, when Meola has been extremely hot (he has 36 hits and 20 total extra-base knocks during that time). Despite all of that, Meola is still hitting at a below average clip on the year, which is why he’s been passed over as the team has made so many promotions. He has a .785 OPS and a 94 wRC+ on the year.
Lorenzo Meola doubles, and Josuar Gonzalez flies around the bases to plate the first run of the game! pic.twitter.com/3zE2sUp11l
A quiet day for the team’s super prospects, as Luis Hernández (No. 6 CPL) got the day off, while shortstop Josuar González (No. 2 CPL) went 0-4 with a walk, a strikeout, and an error. A nice game for center fielder Andy Polanco, though, as he hit 2-4 with a strikeout and stole 2 bases. The 2024 11th-rounder, who is 21, has just a .680 OPS and a 68 wRC+, but has stolen 31 bags.
A great strikeout day for the pitchers. It was a hot-and-cold start for RHP Trey Seeley, a recently-turned 24-year old taken last year in the 14th round. Seeley had a sensational strikeout-to-walk ratio, punching out 8 batters in just 4 innings, while only walking 1. But in those 4 innings he gave up 5 hits … 3 of which cleared the fence, tagging him for 4 runs.
Those home runs are, unfortunately, nothing new: Seely has given up a staggering 13 of them in just 24 innings with San Jose in his debut year (plus 1 in 9 innings in the Complex League). 13 of his 27 A-ball hits allowed have left the yard! You don’t see that every day. The strikeouts remain promising, though, as Seeley has K’d 13.1 batters per 9 innings with the Baby Giants. That’s about the only positive, though, as he has a 9.00 ERA and a 10.06 FIP. Might be bullpen time.
Speaking of bullpens, RHP Fernando Vasquez was sensational, striking out 5 batters in 3 no-hit innings, while only issuing 1 walk. Those numbers were great to see for the 24-year old, who has really struggled with his strikeout-to-walk ratio this year: prior to this game, he had 44 strikeouts to 41 walks in 41 innings. Vasquez has a 5.11 ERA and a 6.16 FIP, but this is just his 2nd season since returning from 3 years lost to injury.
Dominican Summer League Black (30-16)
DSL Giants Black beat the DSL Cubs Red 6-1 (7 innings) Box score
A trio of excellent games on offense for the DSL Black team. Let’s start with the new guy, shortstop Joniel Hernandez, who came over in the Heliot Ramos trade. Hernandez, who signed this year for a $1.4 million bonus, has had a stellar year, and it hasn’t stopped since swapping teams. He made his debut for the organization in this game, and all he did was go 2-3 with a double, a walk, and 2 stolen bases. The right-hander, who turned 17 in March, has a .973 OPS and a 131 wRC+, with more walks than strikeouts, and 8 stolen bases. This is a name worth being excited about, folks … the organization’s abundance of riches at shortstop just grew!
The biggest hit, though, belonged to right fielder Vinicius Dos Santos, who only went 1-3, but smashed a home run, was hit by a pitch, and stole 2 bases (he was also caught stealing once). The recently-turned 19-year old has made some improvements this year, but is still really struggling in his 3rd year.
And rounding out the hitting was left fielder Boris Sarduy, who hit 2-4 with a pair of doubles and a strikeout. Like Dos Santos, Sarduy isn’t having a great year … he has a .735 OPS and a 104 wRC+, but has struck out 31.6% of the time.
A really nice outing on the mound from RHP Santiago Guerrero, a just-turned 19-year old in his debut season. Guerrero tossed 4 shutout innings with just 1 hit allowed, and struck out 5 batters … though he also walked 4 and hit a batter. Through 10 games, Guerrero has a 3.48 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per 9 innings … but a 6.25 FIP and 9.3 walks per 9.
Dominican Summer League Orange (25-21)
DSL Giants Orange lost to the DSL Rangers Blue 13-6 (7 innings) Box score
This game was called a little early due to lightning, but it was one-sided regardless. A pretty brutal day on the mound, though we’ll give some props to RHP Omar Calcurian, who gave up 2 hits and an unearned run in 2 innings of work, with 2 strikeouts. Calcurian has a nice 3.94 ERA on the year, but his FIP is 5.10, he’s only striking out 7.9 batters per 9, and he’s a 21-year old in his 3rd season.
Good hitting games for right fielder Brandon Vasquez and catcher Andrés Rivero. Vasquez, a 19-year old in his 3rd season, hit 2-4 with a double, a stolen base, and a strikeout, giving him an .829 OPS, a 113 wRC+, and 5 stolen bases. Rivero, a 17-year old in his debut year, went 1-3 with a double and a walk, though he struck out twice. Rivero has had a very difficult 1st season, with a .512 OPS and a 34 wRC+.
Los Angeles' Shohei Ohtani and Chicago's Pete Crow-Armstrong ended up with two home runs each in the 7-6 Cubs win.
Ohtani started the show at Wrigley Field as the first player at bat. He took six pitches from Chicago's Shota Imanaga and then watched a four-seam ball fly into the top of the strike zone and smacked it away. The ball flew into right field and Ohtani casually trotted the bases for his 25th home run of the season.
Then, it was Crow-Armstrong's time to shine. All he needed at the top of the order for the Cubs was a single pitch from Eric Lauer to even the score. Lauer wound up and tossed the ball into the right of the strike zone and PCA smashed it above everyone's heads into center field. He raised his hand to the roaring crowd as he took his turn rounding the bases and made the score 1-1.
The Cubs took a 6-1 lead after another home run from PCA. This one came in the fourth and also sent Tyrone Taylor home, and the 2025 Golden Glove winner had a second-inning RBI double. Dansby Swanson hit his own RBI double in the second inning and Alex Bregman had a single in the fourth that scored their last run.
The Dodgers, trailing 7-1 in the eighth inning, pulled to within one run when Max Muncy hit a three-home home run and Ohtani hit a two-run home run. But Los Angeles wasn't able to tie the game.
We’ll be backing Casey Mize in my Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions as the right-hander makes his San Diego debut tonight.
The San Diego Padres come into this one as narrow -126 favorites at Polymarket, a price that’s giving us some tremendous value with Mize putting together a quality year.
Let’s dive right into my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 5.
Who will win Padres vs Diamondbacks tonight: Padres moneyline (-126)
There are no two ways about it — Casey Mize is in the middle of the best year of his career. The newest San Diego Padres starter has a career-best K rate (24%), walk rate (5.6%), hard-hit rate (36%), xERA (3.07), xBA (.252), and xwOBA (.273) this season, giving me all the confidence in the world he’ll add a ninth quality start to his belt tonight.
On the other side is 23-year-old Mitch Bratt, who’s had a difficult time in the majors so far. Entering tonight with a 4.90 xERA, the No. 14 prospect owns just a 12.2 K rate across 20 ⅔ innings at the big-league level. I’m expecting a lot of barrels from the Padres — play this one all the way up to -145.
COVERS INTEL: The Padres' offense is clicking at the right time, scoring five or more runs in four of their last five games. They also feast on mediocre pitching, winning six straight games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+105)
Yes, I’m riding Mize heavily, so you can understand why I’m on the Under tonight. And while Bratt has mostly been hit around this season, he did show some promise in his last start against Cleveland, going five innings and surrendering just one earned run.
The MLB trends are on our side on this one, too — the Under is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last four home games, and it's also hit in four of the last five Padres’ road contests.
I’d price this play closer to -120, so we’re taking prime advantage of the line at Polymarket. Let’s sweep the board tonight.
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
The Diamondbacks play at Chase Field, which features a retractable roof — meaning the weather won't have any impact on the playing conditions tonight.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
Moneyline: Padres (-126) | Diamondbacks (+114)
Run line: Padres -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-116) | Under 8.5 (+105)
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
Don't overlook the quality from Mize, who hasn't allowed more than three runs in a given start since June 23rd. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Padres vs Diamondbacks and game info
Location
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
First pitch
9:40 p.m. ET
TV
Padres.TV, Dbacks.TV
Padres starting pitcher
Casey Mize (4-6, 2.70 ERA)
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Mitch Bratt (0-1, 5.23 ERA)
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 03: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on prior to the game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on August 03, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees’ top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the Trade Deadline behind us, we’re going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s underwhelming? Who’s simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.
As anyone even a little tuned into the baseball world knows, the rich got richer at this year’s deadline in the National League West. It was a busy deadline around one of baseball’s more competitive deadlines, with the Dodgers, of course, making the biggest splash of any team in the league.
As far as play goes, the D-backs leapfrogged San Diego to jump into second place, but other than that, the standings remained the same. The Dodgers, who actually had a mediocre month, remain in first with a solid lead, and it would certainly be fair to expect much bigger things on the horizon for what is likely baseball’s most talented roster.
First Place: Los Angeles Dodgers (69-45)
Top Position Player: Shohei Ohtani (6.4 combined fWAR) Top Pitcher: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.1 fWAR)
For the Dodgers, July was not the brightest month. Since the end of June, Los Angeles has gone just 13-14, but they maintained a solid nine-game lead in the West. Shohei Ohtani has since reclaimed his top spot among position players by fWAR, headlining a group that is realistically second to none. He is one of nine L.A. batters with at least 130 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100, and one of five with a mark of at least 120. It is a star-studded group, and even a lackluster month can do much to diminish that.
On the pitching side, Yamamoto has stepped up with Ohtani not pitching since the beginning of July, tossing mostly excellent ball outside of a dud in the middle of the month. Justin Wrobleski has also remained solid, and will look to overcome a couple of rough starts in his most recent outings. Of course, beyond adding Kris Bubic to their cupboard of injured-but-talented arms, the staff will get a major boost from the acquisition of Tarik Skubal.
The Dodgers made the biggest splash of the deadline by acquiring perhaps the game most talented pitcher in the sport, much to the chagrin of almost every other fanbase. The lefty is a two-time Cy Young Award winner and a bona fide star, he makes any contender take a significant leap, and the Dodgers can count on getting plenty from their new superstar, who’s joining a roster already filled with them. His debut in blue, however, was a disappointing one as he took the loss against the Cubs.
Second Place: Arizona Diamondbacks (60-54)
Top Position Player: Corbin Carroll (3.4 fWAR) Top Pitcher: Michael Soroka (2.1 fWAR)
The Diamondbacks enjoyed the best July out of any team in the West, and have been rewarded with a jump to second place, as well as the final wild card berth in the NL as things stand. Five regulars are boasting a wRC+ above 100, including Gabriel Moreno, who’s posted a .402 OBP since the beginning of July. Top pitcher Michael Soroka hasn’t pitched since June 19th, but Eduardo Rodriguez has remained steady, with an excellent 2.48 ERA as one of the 10 pitchers in baseball with over 130 innings of work thus far.
Despite the nice surge before the deadline, the D-Backs were not major buyers, instead opting for a smaller move gearing up for the final months. Arizona acquired outfielder Lars Nootbaar from the Cardinals in exchange for a crop of prospects. The veteran outfielder has been solid this year, walking more than 13 percent of the time, though the power department (.354 SLG) leaves something to be desired. He’ll hope to turn on the jets as the D-backs try to make it back to October baseball for the first time since sweeping the Dodgers en route to a surprising pennant in 2023.
Third Place: San Diego Padres (59-55)
Top Position Player: Fernando Tatis Jr. (2.4 fWAR) Top Pitcher: Mason Miller (3.1 fWAR)
The Padres were not far off from Arizona, going 16-13 since the beginning of July, remaining just a couple games back from their division rivals. Fernando has continued to move past his early season woes, while Ty France has hit like an MVP over the past month, slashing .340/.384/.580.
Most notably, after seemingly sitting on the fence, the Padres elected to push the chips in at this year’s deadline. Instead of moving top-shelf bullpen arms in Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller held on to them, and instead bolstered the starting rotation, which was severely lacking behind Michael King. The Padres added former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and former number one overall pick Casey Mize to the mix, each of whom have had good 2026 seasons to this point. With those moves in mind, the Padres certainly have postseason aspirations. How much noise can they actually make, though?
Fourth Place: San Francisco Giants (48-66)
Top Position Player: Casey Schmitt (1.8 fWAR) Top Pitcher: Logan Webb (2.6 fWAR)
From wire-to-wire, the Giants have been mostly locked into fourth place in this division. After another unconvincing month of lifeless play, and a long hill to climb to any sort of contention, the Giants elected to sell big at this year’s deadline. They sent Luis Arraez to the Phillies, starters Ray and Tyler Mahle off to new squads, and of course, Heliot Ramos to the Yankees. It was likely not the deadline moves the front office would have expected at the beginning of the year, but was the right one in the big picture.
In a division as competitive as this one, the odds were stacked against the Giants, and their result at the deadline speaks to just that. Regardless, they will have plenty of opportunity to play spoiler as the season winds down.If nothing else, franchise legend Buster Posey’s front-office haul as POBO this deadline was met with acclaim.
Last Place: Colorado Rockies (45-69)
Top Position Player: Hunter Goodman (2.4 fWAR) Top Pitcher: Kyle Freeland (1.2 fWAR)
While the Rockies have inched closer to the Giants, their overall situation changed little over the last month. Clear-cut sellers at this year’s deadline, they hoped to build for the future by most ]trading away Brenton Doyle and Antonio Senzatela.
They did hole on to Hunter Goodman, who continues to mash opposing pitchers. He is tied for the second-most homers in baseball with 33, and has posted a 152 wRC+ since the beginning of July. He has been a very bright spot in an other wise tough season in Colorado.
On this day two years ago, Pedro Grifol led the White Sox to an AL-record 21st consecutive defeat. | (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
1925 Southpaw Dickie Kerr, a two-game winner as a rookie in the 1919 World Series for the White Sox but inactive since 1921, was reinstated from the voluntarily-retired list in an attempted comeback at age 32. Kerr will pitch in just 12 games, to a 5.15 ERA, and retire for good after the season.
After a relatively poor 1921 season (19-17, 4.72 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 89 ERA+), the White Sox sent him a contract with a $500 pay cut for 1922, prompting him to quit and pitch as a semi-pro from 1922-25.
1977 In the first game of a key series with Kansas City, White Sox pitcher Bart Johnson and Royals catcher Darrell Porter got into a shoving match along the first-base line in the third inning after Porter slammed into Johnson’sback while he was covering first base.
In the sixth inning when Porter was coming up to bat, Johnsonstepped off the mound and yelled out ”Do you want it now?” and a brawl took place. Both players were ejected.
After the game, both Porter and George Brett came to the White Sox locker room to apologize. Johnson had undergone back surgery a few years before and didn’t appreciate being deliberately run into that area by Porter.
2022 It was the continuation of one of the most dominant stretches of pitching in baseball history.
Dylan Cease held the Rangers to one run in six innings of work in a 2-1 win. That meant he broke a record shared with Jacob deGrom for allowing one earned run or fewer in 13 consecutive starts (the pair had shared the mark at 12 starts).
It was the longest streak in baseball since earned runs became an official statistic in 1913.
2023 Maybe it was the frustration of an atrocious season coming to a head.
In the sixth inning of a game the Sox would win 7-4 in Cleveland, José Ramírez and Tim Anderson got tangled up at second base.
Ramírez had laced a double down the line and when he slid between Anderson’s legs appeared to slightly push one of them as TA stood over him in case the runner slid off of the bag. Anderson had already suffered a strained knee earlier in the season, and reacted angrily to Ramírez pushing him and getting up to point a finger in his face.
Andersondropped his fielder’s glove and the two went at it. Anderson scored with a couple of punches before Ramirez dropped him with a right.
Well after the benched cleared Sox manager Pedro Grifol and Guardians manager (and former Sox minor league manager) Terry Francona exchanged words, and then Grifoland Cleveland third base coach Mike Sarbaugh appeared to raise their hands to each other in the midst of a second flurry. Andersonand Grifol were the only White Sox ejected while four Guardian players and coaches were tossed.
Suspensions were then handed out by the league after reviewing the video. In the aftermath, Ramírez was portrayed as an innocent victim policing the good of the game, while the downfall of Anderson’s career — he was already in free-fall in the midst of an atrocious 2024 season — was made complete with his embarrassing knockdown.
2024 With a 5-1 loss in Oakland, the White Sox tied the American League record for consecutive losses, with 21. It was another hapless effort by the offense, managing just four hits and a walk, against nine strikeouts. The loss dropped the White Sox to an astounding 61 games worse than .500, at 27-88, 41 ½ games out of first place in the AL Central — and 27 games out of fourth place!
CINCINNATI, OHIO - JULY 12: Pitcher Rhett Lowder #25 of the Cincinnati Reds throws during a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on July 12, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Cincinnati Reds righty Rhett Lowder pitched out of the bullpen across the first two weeks of July, doing so as the team’s rotation was suddenly robust upon the return of Hunter Greene. He did pretty fine work there, too, but in his first start after a trio of relief appearances he was shelled for 11 hits and 8 ER in just 2.1 IP.
That was in Coors Field on a nearly 100 degree day against the Colorado Rockies, and perhaps that’s the tale that truly needs to be told. In two starts since that debacle, he’s fired 11.0 IP and allowed just 4 ER (3.27 ERA) while fanning 9 against just a pair of walks. He has also yielded just 6 hits in that span, and he once again looks like the guy who knows how to throw four pitches for strikes all up and down (and side to side) within the strike zone while keeping batters off-keel as good as anyone with his level of experience.
Lowder gets the ball for the Reds in the second game of the series against the A’s on Wednesday evening in Great American Ball Park, doing so a day after the Reds claimed the series opener 5-4 in pretty dramatic fashion. If he can lead the Reds to a win, that’ll mark the 5th series victory out of the 6 series they’ve played since the All Star break and will show at least a little more faith in the idea that keeping this club mostly together at this week’s trade deadline was a move honestly worth making.
First pitch is again set for 6:40 PM ET, and the Reds will be facing a southpaw to start in Jacob Lopez. They have arranged their lineup accordingly with JJ Bleday the only lefty in the starting lineup, meaning rookie Hector Rodriguez will start on the pine in his second game in the bigs.
Here’s how both clubs will line up to begin things:
The Atlanta Braves will be facing the Miami Marlins this evening in a matchup that brings two offenses on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of runs scored.
The Braves are tied with the Chicago Cubs for the most runs scored in all of MLB since the start of July. They are also in the top seven since the All-Star break. The Marlins are twentieth in runs scored since the start of July and in the bottom three teams since the break.
The Braves will be facing Eury Pérez who sports a blistering 4-seam fastball that averages 98.1 MPH. The Braves have largely struggled against the 4-seam fastball as a team outside of Baldwin, Olson, and Harris who are all well above league average against the pitch. The interesting thing about this matchup is although the Braves as a whole struggle against Pérez’s best pitch, they have had his number. The sample sizes are small but the Braves have seven regular starters that have an OPS of .762 or better against him. Baldwin has two HRs against him and Acuña and Albies both have a HR against him. The caveat is all the seven players mentioned have between five and eight at-bats against him, making it a small sample to draft from.
The Braves were able to score three earned runs on Pérez in April in 4.0 innings, but Pérez has been on fire in his last five starts holding an ERA of 1.69 in that timeframe. It will come down to if the Braves actually have his number, or if he was just slow to start at the beginning of the season.
Lane Thomas already made his debut for the Braves, but with Pérez being a righty, one would have thought that Yastrzemksi would get the start in LF since Thomas has struggled against righties, but hits lefties well above average with Yaz being the opposite. That is not the case with today’s lineup. Now that Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy are back, there was always going to be the question of how many starts they are going to get. We know Murphy is clearly the backup, but traditionally backup catchers get far more starts than backup shortstops. Kim seems to be in line to be a backup with how Jim Jarvis has been playing. Turns out, neither Jarvis or Kim is getting the start at SS today with super utility Dubón getting the nod. Sean Murphy is also making his return and will be at catcher batting ninth with Baldwin getting the start at DH.
Bryce Elder is pitching tonight and although his ERA since the start of July is 3.00, he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB with a FIP of 7.14 and a BABIP against of only .208. There is no way his ERA is sustainable with those numbers. Hopefully the bubble does not burst tonight against a subpar offense.
Xaiver Edwards has nine ABs against Elder, Otto Lopez has eight, and Kyle Stowers has seven in their careers. Outside of those three, no other Marlin has more than five ABs against him. Lopez has been very successful against Elder with an OPS of 1.056 and Edwards has been almost as good with a .989. Stowers has an OPS of .821 due to a HR, but his average has been .143.
Looking simply at ERAs, one may think it will be a low scoring game. If we dig a little deeper, this may actually be a shootout.
JUPITER, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 22: Jacob Berry #54 of the Miami Marlins during the spring training game against the Washington Nationals at Roger Dean Stadium on February 22, 2026 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The trade deadline was on Monday. But the Royals are still working out some deals!
A third baseman with some experience in the outfield, Berry was a standout at LSU and was the #8 prospect for the 2022 draft, according to Baseball America. They wrote that the switch-hitter had advanced plate discipline and gap power to fall fields. There were some questions about his power from the right side, and his home run numbers have never materialized in the minors. The Marlins took him with the sixth overall pick – three picks before Gavin Cross, who will now be his teammate in Omaha.
The Royals are in full evaluation mode, and while fans shouldn’t expect too much out of these kind of trades, accumulating talent to see if anyone can break through is a good move. Berry was once a high upside prospect, and he demonstrates the kind of plate discipline this organization needs. It certainly beats signing some 30+ year-old hitter you thought retired two years ago to fill out your minor league roster.
This evening, we're attacking nothing but arms! It may be leg day at the gym, but on the diamond, it's all about focusing on the starting pitchers.
Headlined by Reid Detmers, here are my three favorite MLB player props for Thursday, Aug. 5.
Best MLB player props today
Player
Pick
Odds
Bryce Elder
Over 2.5 earned runs
+100
Reid Detmers
Over 7.5 strikeouts
+119
Sean Burke
Under 6.5 strikeouts
-137
Bryce Elder Over 2.5 earned runs (+100)
The Miami Marlins roll into one of the better offensive matchups on the board. They feature four elite-rated hitters and two strong-rated hitters on Batters-Box's current season ratings.
They will face Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder, who has hit a few speed bumps over his last five starts. During that stretch, Elder owns a 4.32 ERA, 5.50 xERA, and 1.36 WHIP while allowing plenty of hard contact and barrels.
Four of Miami's six highest-rated hitters swing from the left side, and that's where Elder has really struggled. Across the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced, he owns a 5.02 ERA while allowing a 48.7% hard-hit rate, 12.8% barrel rate, and just a 28.2% ground-ball rate. Those hitters have also produced a .393 xBA, .735 xSLG, and .360 xwOBA during that span.
The Marlins have started to turn things around after their July slump, and this is a great spot for the Fighting Fish to keep it rolling.
I'd play this down to -110.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MIAM, BravesVision
Reid Detmers Over 7.5 strikeouts (+119)
One of the highest average strikeout rates on Wednesday's slate belongs to Los Angeles Angels left-hander Reid Detmers, who has put together an outstanding season.
Detmers carries a strong rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset while boasting an elite matchup wOBA and strikeout rating. Over his last five starts, he has maintained a strikeout rate north of 30%, and over his last three, that number has climbed to more than 36%.
The Baltimore Orioles present a favorable matchup for strikeout props. Baltimore has eight hitters above the league-average strikeout rate and has struggled to make contact against left-handed pitching. Over their last 60 at-bats against southpaws, seven hitters own at least a 23.3% strikeout rate, with four sitting above 30%.
Over the last week, Baltimore has a near-30% strikeout rate, so I'd play this down to even money.
Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MASN, ABTV
Sean Burke Under 6.5 strikeouts (-137)
Coming off a 10-strikeout performance against the New York Yankees last week, Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke will look to replicate that success against one of the hottest offenses in baseball.
Despite the Boston Red Sox hanging two touchdowns on the scoreboard last night, I don't expect the Red Sox to completely fall apart at the plate tonight. Burke has been outstanding lately, carrying a strikeout rate near 30% over his last few starts, but this is a completely different challenge.
Over their last 12 games, the Red Sox own a 126 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .811 OPS, and just a 22.6% strikeout rate. They've been even tougher to punch out recently, posting a team strikeout rate below 20% over their last six games.
It's a tough ask for Burke to dominate in back-to-back starts against two completely different offenses.
I'd play this down to -140.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CHSN, NESN
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 360-723, -25.0 units | FADE ME!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 4: Jesús Luzardo #44 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the top of the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park on August 4, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
For all the hand-wringing (much of it deserved) over the moves the decisions the Phillies made, the players acquired and the Trade Deadline moves not made, the core strength of the team have never been in doubt.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are star sluggers.
Jhoan Duran is an elite closer.
And the top three pitchers in the starting rotation match up against anyone else’s in baseball.
On Tuesday night, the Phillies notched yet another team shutout under their belts, a 5-0 suffocation of the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. They’re making this a bit of a habit.
The Phillies and Yankees are leading the charge in shutout wins this season 😤
The Phillies' 15 shutout wins are the most in the major league with the Yankees in second with 12 👏 pic.twitter.com/S0NdPQHBc8
The Phils are off to a hot start in August, winning their first four games by a combined score of 24-3. That includes back-to-back shutouts of the Orioles in Baltimore over the weekend (5-0 and 8-0) as well as 6-3 win on Monday night.
That’s three shutouts in their last four games, the last one nearly a complete game effort by Jesus Luzardo, who continues to establish himself as an annual Cy Young contender.
There can be no doubt, at this point, Dave Dombrowski’s acquisition of Luzardo from the Miami Marlins two off-seasons ago will go down as one of the best in franchise history. The two prospects the Phillies traded to get him, Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd, are still nowhere close to being Major League ready, if they ever will.
The 20-year-old Caba entered the 2025 season as a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball, but has not appeared on any lists in ‘26. In 68 games at High-A the middle infielder has a .745 OPS, bolstered by an outstanding walk rate but little else. He’s young, and there’s time for development, but this is not a star player in the making.
Boyd is a 22-year-old outfielder playing in AA. In 58 games his OPS is just .655, with only 10 extra-base hits in 193 plate appearances.
Luzardo, meanwhile, has become a bona fide ace.
He continues to flourish in his second season in Philadelphia and has been especially hot over his last 10 starts, posting a 1.98 ERA, 33.1% K-rate, 8.7% BB-rate, 0.97 WHIP and .175 batting average allowed. During that stretch, no pitcher in baseball has accumulated more fWAR (2.2) than Luzardo. He’s thrown the second-most innings over that timeframe, the most strikeouts (84), and has the sixth-lowest batting average allowed. He given up one or zero runs in seven of his last eight outings, and if you throw out his six-run start against the Marlins last week, his ERA would be 1.01 since June 23.
But let’s go back even further. He got off to a brutal start this season, with a 7.94 ERA after his first four appearances. Since then (19 starts), his 3.2 fWAR trails only Jacob Misiorowski (4.5), Chris Sale (3.7), and teammate Cristopher Sanchez (3.4).
Luzardo’s home/road splits still show him with a higher ERA at Citizens Bank Park (4.85) than on the road (2.01), but most of that was due to the damage inflicted on his first three home starts in which he gave up a combined 19 runs. After a five-run outing against the White Sox on June 5, Luzardo has now gone four straight starts at home allowing either one or no runs.
His mastery of lefties continues to be a strength, allowing a slash line of .156/.207/.193 this year. He’s given up just one home run to a left-handed hitter as opposed to 10 against righties, thanks mostly to a career-high ground ball rate of 50.4%. He has not had a season higher than 42.8%, which was last season. He’s coupled that with a 20.9% hard-hit rate that is his lowest since 2022.
Luzardo is incorporating his new-found sweeper more than ever. Introduced last season, it has become a game-changing weapon. He threw it nearly one-third of the time in ’25, 32.1%, with his 96.5 mph fastball used just as often (33.3%). This year, the sweeper has become his most-used pitch by far, tossing it 37.8% of the time compared to his four-seamer, 24.6%. Luzardo has essentially ditched his slider and become a four-pitch pitcher, utilizing a changeup 18.9% of the time (17.3% last year) and a sinker, 18.8% (10.8% in ‘25).
When Dombrowski made the deal to acquire Luzardo from Miami, there were question marks. He had been injured in 2024 and no one was sure if he could ever be a consistent, top-of-the-rotation starter on a consistent basis. He also was only under team control for two seasons (2025 and ‘26). The five-year, $135 million extension he signed back in March keeps him in Philadelphia for the entirety of his prime at an average of $27 million a season.
That’s a steal for a pitcher who is likely to finish in the top-five of Cy Young voting for a second straight season.
The Phillies have a number of weaknesses and concerns as they try to snag one of the NL’s three wild card spots. It’s been an up-and-down season virtually across the board.
But one thing they can count on is a playoff rotation led by three aces: Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo.
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 06: Fans watch the USA face Belgium in a World Cup round of 16 soccer match in The Battery at Truist Park on July 6, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Income from ticket sales and The Battery are really growing. The Braves reportedly raised prices on season tickets, and are reaping financial benefits. The Battery and Pennant Park are packed nearly to capacity. But the BravesVision venture is behind not necessarily in revenue, but the big payoff seems to be delayed. So let’s dig into some numbers. But first a brief aside.
We are fortunate that we are able to see into the financials of the Atlanta Braves. The other teams’ fans are so lucky. But that is the only reason that we cover it here. Please don’t confuse anything that you see in this post on on this site as an endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. I don’t have a take on BATRA/BATRK, and even if I did you shouldn’t listen to me. You should see out other financial advice for your situation. This is regardless if you think the Braves are owned by Liberty Media or Liberty National.
Top Line Numbers
Total revenue of $305 million in the second quarter of 2026, down 2% from the prior year period. Total revenue of $377 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 5% from the prior period.
Baseball revenue decreased 4% from the prior year period to $276 million driven by six fewer home games played in the second quarter. Baseball revenue of $322 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 2% from the prior period.
Mixed-Use Development revenue increased 14% from the prior year period to $29 million. Mixed-Use Development revenue of $55 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up 26% from the prior period.
Total Adjusted OIBDA(1) of $12 million in the second quarter of 2026.
Baseball Adjusted OIBDA declined to $(6) million, down from $52 million in the prior year period.
Mixed-Use Development Adjusted OIBDA increased 18% from the prior year period to $21 million.
Operating income (loss) declined to $(19) million in the second quarter of 2026, down from $42 million in the prior year period.
The most significant portion of their revenue, ticket sales, is very strong. They are basically where they are last year with 6 fewer home games than in the Apr-Jun portion of 2025. Mixed-Use Development continues to be strong, with 14% growth in Apr-Jun and 26% overall from last year.
BravesVision revenue delays
This really is the most significant part of the earnings results. The Braves promised us more numbers around BravesVision for this release as opposed to last quarter. And they aren’t exactly blowout numbers.
Have a look at the Media Related line in these numbers. This line was previously named Broadcasting. It makes sense now that we’re added streaming to the cable and over-the-air broadcasting. It’s down 10 percent from this quarter last year, and 12% for the year-to-date. There are a couple of things driving this.
Number one is that the schedule of payouts differs from their previous media rights deal contract and BravesVision. I interpret that to mean that they have numerous entities paying the Braves for commercials and that money trickles in at a different pace than last year. Jill Robinson stated: “distribution revenue payments will come in on a slower cadence than out traditional rights fee model payments were received… Advertising revenue will be paid following the month when the ad airs.” In light of that “since BravesVision effectively launched on April 1st, the 2026 fiscal year will not reflect a full year of distribution revenue.”
Number two is that under the old contract, it was up to Diamond Sports Group to find people to buy air time and pay the Braves. Right now, the Braves have to do it themselves. That’s what we want, honestly. But it’s taken some time to get that revenue stream off the ground, while simultaneously creating a new broadcasting and streaming venture. Braves fans were feeling some of the brunt of that as well, with the constant Alan Jackson ads earlier in the year.
It appears to be that but the end of 2026, they will get more for their media rights. But that payoff is definitely delayed. You can get the rest of the Braves dot tv season plus two seats for 20 dollars right now. That’s much lower than the other teams offerings. I don’t think that’s a comparison of demand and it’s merely a sale. Because if it’s not, woof.
Players’ Salary Tax, Parties, Stashed Cash, and Postseason Loot
The Braves still 300 plus million in available cash. That’s after starting a television network from scratch. Baseball related costs are up, because they’re not that cheap and players’ salaries have increased year-over-year. The Battery was able to draw more than 35,000 fans to the Battery during the World Cup. They are committed to draw people to the Battery regardless if the Braves are in town or not. Also, the Braves fell confident that the “162M issue” will be resolved well for the Braves. The Braves are taxed in a different manner to other teams with respect to players salaries. Terry McGuirk felt “we’re very confident we’ll have a legislative or a regulatory solution.”
The Braves were asked how the revenue could increase with a playoff run. Jill Robinson referred back to previous seasons’ Q4 data and said we should use it as a baseline. Otherwise, she refused to speculate and jinx the Braves (one of us, one of us). But if she won’t guess, I might try. The Braves had two Division Series matchups in 2022 and 2023. The revenue for those (IIRC) suggest that those games provided seven million dollars. So I’m guessing Division home games are worth 8-9 million now, NLCS one are 11-12 million, and World Series games around 15 million. But those guesses could be way off. I’m not gonna guess if the Braves will get there, but I will guess what the revenue might be.
Terry McGuirk and FanGraphs
Finally, Terry McGuirk gave a shout out to FanGraphs. At the top of the address, Terry walks everyone through the accomplishments of the on-field personnel. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Chris Sale were mentioned. Also, we mentioned FanGraphs’ playoff odds. It’s interesting if this is a one-off occurrence, or they leverage FanGraphs as an organization. Yep, Terry likes his run differential numbers, and his FanGraphs.
When the news came across our feeds on Monday, it was a bit surprising. Once the return in the deal was reported, it was upgraded to shocking status.
Marcelo Mayer — No. 4 overall pick in 2021, top prospect in the organization from 2022-24 — traded away for … a 28-year-old reliever.
Giving up on such a highly touted prospect so soon, and doing it for a reliever — surely, this represents a flop of all flops, the likes of which this organization has never seen before.
Yet after just the slightest bit of research, it turns out that first-round picks haven’t meant a whole lot to the Red Sox organization — not this century, anyway.
While the team certainly nailed it with the 19th overall pick in 1983 (Roger Clemens), the 15th overall pick in 1971 (Jim Rice) and the 12th overall pick in 1994 (Nomar Garciaparra), the 21st century hasn’t netted the organization much in the way of cornerstone players. And a look through the names and careers in the first 25 years of this century does provide some perspective as to what just happened with Mayer.
The Best Players By WAR
You can evaluate players 17 different ways, but for simplicity’s sake, here are the rankings for the Red Sox’ first-round picks since 2000 by career bWAR.
Jacoby Ellsbury, 31.0
Clay Buchholz†, 16.8
Jackie Bradley Jr.†, 16.6
Andrew Benintendi*, 16.5
Jed Lowrie†, 15.4
David Murphy, 9.9
Daniel Bard, 8.4
Tanner Houck*, 7.5
Michael Kopech*, 6.0
Matt Barnes, 4.2
Matt Murton†, 3.3
Triston Casas*, 2.2 *active player †supplementary first-round pick
Of the 42 first-round picks by the Red Sox since 2000, those are the best of the best.
Jacoby Ellsbury obviously flashed for a bit — in 2011 with a near-MVP season, and 2013 when he helped the team win a World Series — but was tremendously unremarkable in his 30s with the Yankees.
Clay Buchholz, likewise, flashed for two years — 2010 and 2013 — but essentially fell off a cliff thereafter. He was traded away in 2016 for infielder Josh Tobias, who never reached the majors.
Jackie Bradley Jr. popped as an All-Star in 2016 (.835 OPS) and in the 2018 ALCS (1.067 OPS, series MVP) while proving Gold Glove-level defense but didn’t hit consistently enough to stick around for the long haul. He left via free agency in 2020, came back briefly in 2022, but played his last MLB game in 2023, hitting just .176 over his final three seasons.
Andrew Benintendi was one of the highest Red Sox picks of this century at No. 7 overall, and he looked like a potential franchise cornerstone in his breakout season of 2018 (.830 OPS). But he’s never come close to matching that production, and he’s more or less played at a replacement level from ages 28-31 with the White Sox. He was shipped away in 2021 in a deal that only netted Josh Winckowski and Franchy Cordero (plus three prospects) for the Red Sox.
Jed Lowrie was a functional player for Boston from 2008-11 but was traded in 2011 for closer Mark Melancon. That could have actually been a value add for Boston, but Melancon happened to have the worst season of his career in his lone year with the Red Sox.
David Murphy was a valuable piece in the Red Sox’ trade for Eric Gagne at the 2007 deadline, Michael Kopech was a big piece of the trade to acquire Chris Sale in 2016, and Matt Murton was the other Red Sox player traded alongside Nomar Garciaparra in 2004, netting Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz for Boston.
That last quartet of players — Lowrie, Murphy, Kopech and Murton — could certainly be considered better uses of first-round draft picks in trades than Mayer, with Kopech being the most significant. Still, that deal also involved Yoan Moncada and two other prospects.
The Complete Misses
This is not breaking news, but the MLB Draft is the crapshoot to end all crapshoots. That’s why there are 650 rounds every year. (Technically, there are 20 rounds. If you want to be a stickler.)
And though Mayer absolutely represents a disappointment for the Red Sox — Chaim Bloom’s front office for drafting him, Craig Breslow’s group for developing, and the coaching up and down the organization — his brief Red Sox tenure was not the worst among top-12 picks this century.
The Red Sox drafted left-handed pitcher Trey Ball with the seventh overall pick in 2013. He failed to find success at any level but was nevertheless given a shot at Double-A Portland in 2017. Over two seasons, he posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.795 WHIP. With his pitching career shot, he took a stab at switching to outfield in 2019, an endeavor that lasted all of five games for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox.
The team’s other high pick this century was Jay Groome, a hard-throwing lefty who demanded a $3.65 million signing bonus. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and eventually reached Triple-A in 2022 but was traded to the Padres for Eric Hosmer. He never reached the majors in the Padres’ system.
Nick Yorke was another relatively high pick, taken 17th overall in 2020. At 24 years old, he still has room to grow, but thus far in his MLB career with the Pirates, he’s compiled a -0.4 bWAR and a .588 OPS over 60 games. The Red Sox traded him for Quinn Priester in 2024.
This next list is not intended to mean. It’s merely meant to show how first-round picks have often proved fruitless for the Red Sox.
LHP Phil Dumatrait, No. 22 overall in 2000, bWAR -1.8
RHP Michael Bowden, No. 47 overall in 2005, bWAR 0.8
RHP Craig Hansen, No. 26 overall in 2005, bWAR -1.9
LHP Kris Johnson, No. 40 overall in 2006, bWAR 0.0
OF Jason Place, No. 27 overall in 2006, never reached majors
RHP Caleb Clay, No. 44 overall in 2006, never reached majors
LHP Nick Hagadone, No. 55 in 2007, -0.2 bWAR
SS Ryan Dent, No. 62 overall in 2006, never reached majors
RHP Bryan Price, No. 45 overall in 2007, -0.2 bWAR
SS/P Casey Kelly, No. 30 overall in 2008, -1.3 bWAR
CF Rey Fuentes, No. 28 overall in 2009, -0.6 bWAR
OF Bryce Brentz, No. 36 overall in 2010, 0.0 bWAR
RHP Anthony Ranaudo, No. 39 overall in 2010, -1.6 bWAR
2B Kolbrin Vitek, No. 20 overall in 2010, never reached majors
LHP Henry Owens, No. 36 overall in 2011, 0.1 bWAR
C Blake Swihart, No. 26 overall in 2011, -0.6 bWAR
LHP Brian Johnson, No. 31 overall in 2012, 0.9 bWAR
SS Deven Marrero, No. 24 overall in 2012, -0.4 bWAR
RHP Pat Light, No. 37 overall in 2012, -0.7 bWAR
INF Michael Chavis, No. 26 overall in 2014, 0.1 bWAR
Some of these players provided the Red Sox value in trades. Casey Kelly and Rey Fuentes were in the deal for Adrian Gonzalez. Nick Hagadone was in the deal for Victor Martinez. But for the most part, the Red Sox didn’t get much out of these first-rounders and supplemental first-rounders.
Too Soon To Tell
After taking Marcelo Mayer with the fourth overall pick in 2021, the Red Sox have made six first-round picks.
Catcher Kyle Teel (14th overall in 2023) and outfielder Braden Montgomery (12th in 2024) were traded to the White Sox in the deal for Garrett Crochet, and both have reached the majors.
Kyson Witherspoon, the 15th pick in the 2025 draft, was just traded to the Orioles as part of the package for Adley Rutschman.
Shortstop Mikey Romero (24th overall in 2022) is in Triple-A Worcester, pitcher Marcus Phillips is in High-A Greenville (with a 7.22 ERA), and shortstop Jake Schaffner (No. 20 this year) is just beginning his pro career.
Triston Casas (the No. 26 overall pick in 2018) may have graduated out of the “too soon to tell” list but nevertheless could still make something of his big league career.
So … What’s The Point?
Fair question. Glad you asked.
There’s not necessarily an overarching point, other than the reality that being a first-round pick in the Red Sox organization — or any organization, for that matter — doesn’t guarantee much.
While it’s no doubt a disappointment for a No. 4 overall pick like Mayer to never really take off for the Red Sox, he’ll simply join a long line of names who had the same story.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 03: Abimelec Ortiz #81 of the Washington Nationals rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning during the game between the Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, August 3, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Trevor Hayes/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Nats have really felt the losses of Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia Jr. lately. An offense that was once an unstoppable force has fallen on its face. During this road trip, the Nats are 3 for 46 with RISP. However, there is one new bat they added to the fold that really intrigues me, and it is Abimelec Ortiz.
Part of the reason trading Garcia made sense for the Nats was that they had a plug and play replacement in Ortiz. The Nats acquired the 24 year old in the MacKenzie Gore trade, and he has been mashing at AAA all year. He has an .845 OPS with 18 homers this season while having some bad luck mixed in as well. Ortiz is a big man who can punish baseballs, which is what he has been doing in the minors.
Abimelec Ortiz waists no time clearing the bases! 💣
However, Ortiz is more than your prototypical feast or famine power hitter. This season he is striking out under 20% of the time in the minors. He is also whiffing and making contact at better than average clips. Ortiz has proven to be a complete hitter in the minors this year, with not many holes in his profile.
His swing decisions are not elite, but they are solid. That is good enough for a player with huge power and better than average contact skills. One of the great things about Ortiz is that he does a really good job tapping into his power. He is hitting the ball on the ground less than 35% of the time this year and pulling it in the air at an 18% clip.
This is a hitter that is built to do damage. His average exit velocity is over 91 MPH, his max EV is over 116 and his 90th percentile EV, a good measure of power, is at 107 which is elite. We still need to see Ortiz produce in the big leagues to be sure, but he seems like a pretty safe bet to be an above average hitter.
Abimelic Ortiz has been called back up to DC. He'll be the LHH first basemen replacing Luis Garcia moving forward.
⚾️ 24 yrs old; Added in Gore trade ⚾️ 18 HR and an .845 OPS at AAA ⚾️ HR counts last 3 yrs: 33, 18, 25
Best AVG exit velocities in AAA, hard hit rate is best…
I have gone into plenty of numbers, but when you watch Ortiz, there is a lot to like. He is one of those guys that looks hitterish in the box. It is like that big kid on your little league team who just hits tanks. Ortiz has that sort of presence in the box. His swing is also really nice to watch with his quick hands and fast bat.
Ortiz has only had 6 MLB AB’s to this point, but I have liked what I have seen so far. He does not look overmatched by big league pitching at all to this point. The first baseman also looks very confident in the box.
In Ortiz’s first at bat back in the big leagues, he hit his first career homer off of Aaron Nola. It was a majestic no doubt home run for the youngster. I have a feeling that we will be seeing quite a few of those down the stretch.
This offense has been in a real malaise lately. However, I think Ortiz is going to be one of the solutions rather than someone that holds this unit back. Ortiz really just seems to have everything you would want in a young hitter. He has the power, contact and a decent approach. Of course, the Major Leagues has a way of exposing guys, but I think Ortiz is a guy who sticks.
Ortiz can play first base, but his 5’10 height limits him a bit there. Ideally, he is a DH who occasionally plays first. That means he will really have to mash to have value. However, Ortiz seems like he is up to the job, particularly against right handed pitching.
It is easy for me to see a world where Ortiz is in that Vinnie Pasquantino, Jonathan Aranda or Alec Burleson tier of first baseman/DH’s who are not superstars but are productive regulars for a long time.
For a guy who was a tertiary piece in the MacKenzie Gore trade, that would be an awesome outcome. He still needs to prove it out on the field, but I am getting dangerously high on Abimelec Ortiz the more I look at him. The kid just hits man!
Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.
Esteury Ruiz will not stop running. The Marlins outfielder plays just a few days a week, but has attempted 30 stolen bases despite. That’s come while he’s taken only 149 plate appearances so far this season. Still, as a part-time player only look to him if you’re either desperate for steals or in a deep enough league where this skill set is valuable.
Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders
Player
SB
CS
José Caballero
4
0
Esteury Ruiz
3
0
Endy Rodríguez
3
1
Tyler Tolbert
3
0
Chandler Simpson
3
0
Xander Boagaerts
2
0
Marcus Semien
2
0
Brandon Nimmo
2
0
Willy Adames
2
0
21 Others Tied
2
-
José Caballero has officially lost his starting spot with the Yankees after George Lombard Jr. was promoted to be their shortstop. Lombard could provide some sneaky speed though with 14 stolen bases across 78 games split between Double and Triple-A.
Endy Rodríguez needs to be on more people’s radars as a catcher with a sturdy offensive profile who’s starting against all right-handed pitchers and can provide legitimate speed.
Stolen Base Disappointments
Player
SB
CS
Jakob Marsee
19
12
Zach Neto
14
10
Luke Keaschall
13
5
Henry Bolte
13
7
Austin Martin
10
7
Michael Harris II
6
1
Shohei Ohtani
6
2
Cole Young
3
4
Francisco Lindor
2
2
Ozzie Albies
2
4
Zach McKinstry
1
5
Mookie Betts
1
2
Zach Neto hasn’t successfully stolen two bases consecutively in just under two months. Luckily, the Angels will still let him run despite his woeful inefficiency.
Henry Bolte has been disappointing overall, especially as a base stealer where we hoped his tremendous speed could give him a more reasonable floor as a rookie.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The Reds have been jostling at the top of the stolen bases allowed leaderboard all season long and reclaimed the top spot over the last as opponents swiped 10 against them.
For them, the stolen bases they’ve allowed are much more about the catcher than pitcher.
Tyler Stephenson had nine of the 10 happen on his watch across just five starts. On the flip side, no starting pitcher was on the mound for more than two.
While he’s had another solid season offensively, Stephenson has struggled mightily behind the plate. Never particularly strong back there, his caught stealing rate has fallen to 17%, which is second-lowest among all catchers who have started at least 50 games.
In fact, his shoddy defense could be the reason he stayed put in Cincinnati past Monday’s trade deadline.
A free agent at the end of the season, it made perfect sense for the Reds to ship him out with numerous contenders looking for both help at catcher and reliable right-handed hitters. It felt so obvious that Stephenson gave a heartfelt goodbye to the crowd at Great American Ballpark last weekend.
Tyler Stephenson gets emotional in his postgame interview after hitting a home run in what could be his final at-bat with the Reds.
He’s still here though, and his lack of reliability defensively could have pushed teams away from paying the price the Reds seemed to demand for him.
They’re facing the Athletics, Nationals, and White Sox over the next week. So, keep an eye on Henry Bolte, Lawrence Butler, Brenton Doyle, Sam Antonacci, Jacob Young, and stolen base king Nasim Nuñez if you’re seeking cheap speed.
A Fishy Return
After trading Liam Hicks at the deadline, the Marlins have turned back to the defensively challenged Agustín Ramírez to presumably split reps with standout rookie Joe Mack. Not to be dramatic, but this may be the largest defensive chasm between two catchers on a single roster.
Mack has shored up the catcher spot in a big way for the Marlins with 11 home runs and a .740 OPS across 68 games to go along with lights out defense. Stolen base attempts against them have been down significantly since he was called up.
That could change soon though with Ramírez back.
He was a mainstay on this column last season because base runners were both incredibly aggressive and successful as base stealers when he played. He’s not a particularly good receiver either, and let a wild pitch past him in the lone inning he caught on Tuesday night that gave the Braves an important insurance run. They loaded the bases rather quickly that inning too, so there was no obvious chance to swipe a bag on Ramírez.
The Marlins are likely going to give him a few innings here and there, as they did on Tuesday, to try and give him a chance to show anything defensively. During the one or so game a week that he’s announced as a starter, run to your waiver wire and pick up any players with even moderate speed in the lineup against him.
If he gets a shot to DH, his bat and speed could prove valuable in two-catcher formats. He still has not played a position other than catcher in the Marlins’ organization though, so he could struggle to crack the starting lineup regularly.
COVERS INTEL: The Padres' offense is clicking at the right time, scoring five or more runs in four of their last five games. They also feast on mediocre pitching, winning six straight games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Bryce Elder
Reid Detmers
Sean Burke
Matthew Pouliot