DETROIT, MI - JULY 08: Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Troy Melton (52) is congratulated by his teammates in the dugout after being releived during a regular season Major League Baseball game between the Athletics and the Detroit Tigers on July 8, 2026 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Following the developmental path of Detroit Tigers’ starting pitcher Troy Melton has been a pretty fascinating ride. Watching him improve in 2024, it was pretty clear that he would become a factor in 2025 if he could avoid the plague of pitcher injuries in the Tigers’ system, and so it went. However, during his mixed work as a starter and reliever down the stretch and in the postseason, his ability to handle left-handed hitters was the question determining his long-term future as a starting pitcher. This year, the 25-year-old Melton has found the answer, but it’s not the pitch we were expecting.
Last fall, I wrote about Melton’s splitter being the defining factor in locking down left-handed hitters, and argued that the cutter either had to get a lot better or be ditched entirely. Melton has chosen the first of those paths. He was good overall in his rookie season, and pitched pretty impressively in the postseason as well. Left-handers weren’t a huge problem for him, but they hit him quite a bit better than right-handers, and more specifically, Melton struggled to strike out left-handed hitters.
He managed a meager 14.2 percent K-rate against lefties in 2025. He struck out 26.2 percent of right-handed hitters. That was all fine in a relief role, but to really become a dominant starting pitcher, he was going to have to get a lot more whiffs against left-handed batters in particular. The .191 BABIP he ran against lefties just wasn’t going to hold up, especially as a full-time starter.
The answer, I assumed, lie in his split-finger fastball. Typically the development of a changeup or splitter is the key to limiting damage and getting whiffs against opposite handed hitters. Melton’s fourseam-slider combo wasn’t really going to get it done. Melton has gone another direction, turning his cutter into a monster weapon against hitters on either side of the plate.
In 2025, Melton threw the cutter just 10.8 percent of the time, regardless of which batter’s box the hitter was in. In 2026, that rate is up to 20.1 percent.
Against lefties, he uses the cutter 19.5 percent of the time. He’ll mix in the splitter (12.1%)and curveball (8.1%) sparingly against them, accounting for about 20 percent of his pitches to lefties combined. The slider is used 18.3 percent of the time against lefties, while the majority of the work is still handled by his fourseam fastball, which he throws 40.8 percent of the time.
So he’s still using a pretty deep mix against left-handed hitters, but the cutter is certainly playing a lot bigger role than it did in 2025. It’s also suddenly become a much better pitch in recent weeks. In 2025 he averaged 90.9 mph with it. He’s added a full tick of velo this season, but lately he’s really found the feel with it and is throwing it even harder, even topping 95 mph repeatedly in late June and July. Since June 15, the cutter is averaging 92.5 mph. There are only about 30 pitchers in the major leagues who average 92.5 mph with a cutter, and many of them are relievers.
Melton is getting a 23.9 percent whiff rate, which is nothing special, but hitters have posted a meager .158 wOBA against the pitch. The expected wOBA is just .196, so he isn’t just getting lucky here either.
The effect here is to give him a pitch between his relatively straight fourseamer that has average ride but a good angle to the top of the zone, and the slider he breaks off to back foot left-handers. Hitters have had a really hard time distinguishing between the slider and the cutter, and the result is that his slider went from a 23.1 percent whiff rate in 2025, with a big chunk of that coming as a reliever, to a 31.3 percent whiff rate in 2026.
I mean, deal with this thing after seeing the heater and knowing the wipeout slider is lurking.
Melton now has three pitches that he can work with to his gloveside, tying up left-handed hitters. They are doing nothing against him, hitting just .157. The one fly in the ointment is that when lefties do connect on his fourseam fastball, they’re crushing it, but the rise of the cutter-slider combo means they’re getting less fastballs, and a lot less obvious fastballs, no matter the count. Overall they’re striking out a lot more, and putting the ball in play weakly for the most part.
Right-handed hitters are doing even worse, and the cutter is a big part of that too as hitters have to look for two different hard breaking balls. The cutter looks like the fourseamer and breaks away late. Once they’ve seen that, there is less certainty for hitters when they see the slider come out of his hand. It could be the cutter, or it could be the slider, and they have to swing just as the latter disappears down and away for whiffs. The slider’s performance continues to improve as the cutter becomes more effective. Melton really has them on the horns of a dilemma trying to discern between the two breaking balls while knowing they could get 97-98 mph at the top of the zone with big-time extension helping it play up.
This is rapidly becoming a really deep mix of pitches for Troy Melton, and while his ERA looked unsustainable early on after his return to the rotation in late May, the stuff and underlying performance is rapidly catching up to the results, making the whole package look far more sustainable. We can still hope Melton gets more comfortable and consistent with the splitter, because it gives him another pitch beyond the fourseamer, curveball, and the occasional curveball that he can use armside, generating even more whiffs from lefties.
Overall, Melton still needed to punch out more hitters to turn himself into a top shelf, frontline starter that can lead a rotation. But with the amped up cutter, he’s now well on his way. He barely struck anyone out as he returned to the rotation in May, but he managed contact, didn’t walk hitters, and was somewhat fortunate. In June, his overall strikeout rate was just 22.1 percent but he was still limiting the traffic on the bases and occasionally giving up homers, but never a rally. In July, since he added more velo to the cutter? His strikeout rate through two starts in July in now 36.4 percent. You have to love the trendline there.
The Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani, walking off the mound during the fifth inning of his last start on July 3 against the Padres, has been navigating a lingering knee issue the last month. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior was worried. But how worried? He couldn’t say at first.
The team had already taken major steps to address Shohei Ohtani’s lingering left knee issue, presenting him with a plan to skip his last start before the All-Star break and have his knee drained that Sunday. And he’d co-signed it.
The swelling in Ohtani’s knee, however, had already been more persistent than the team had first expected. And pitching seemed to irritate it.
“I would say, moderately concerned,” Prior eventually said in a conversation with The Times last weekend. “But no more concerned than I probably am with anybody else who’s had to deal with aches and pains. Hopefully, this break and this rest will get it to calm down a little bit, and then we’ll see where we’re at next weekend.”
Coming out of the All-Star break, the Dodgers face the most pressing question for their second half: Will they be able to manage Ohtani’s knee issue?
Of course, plenty of other questions loom: What approach will the Dodgers take at the trade deadline? Will the pitchers coming off the injured list in the second half provide enough pitching depth? Can they maintain the best record in the majors?
But naturally, Ohtani’s health is tangled up in all those answers.
The Dodgers have enough star power and enough of a lead in the division to still make the playoffs without Ohtani replicating his first half on the mound (8-2, 1.79 ERA). And they showed last year that they can win a World Series even if their postseason path begins with a wild-card series.
They’d prefer, however, to take a different route, with a strong second half that ensures home-field advantage all the way through the postseason.
“At the end of the day, it’s just trying to expect the best of your ball club,” manager Dave Roberts said before the break. “And with the talent that we have, we expect to have the best record in baseball, and so that’s our standard. And so, what falls out of it is x, y and z. So that’s what we’re playing for.”
That’s also what they need a healthy Ohtani for.
Workload is part of the equation, and an aspect that’s garnered plenty of attention in Ohtani’s first full season balancing two-way duties since 2023.
“I’ve been much more open and watching … his workload, and not just taking for granted that he can be a two-way player, take every at-bat, pitch like a normal pitcher,” Roberts said. “I think that would be unfair. So for me, if anything, it’s just, keep having those conversations with him, bringing them to him, and saying, ‘Hey, this is what we see. This might be a different option, a better option for your best interest and our best interest.’ And I think that with that, he’s responded really well.”
That approach will continue in the second half. But refining Ohtani’s mechanics will also be vital to keeping his knee from becoming an issue again.
Ohtani said it himself, through interpreter Will Ireton, last week: “I have to kind of find a way to adjust my mechanics so that my knee doesn’t get affected.”
He’s been trying to do so since the swelling in his knee first cropped up.
“I think we’ve identified the issue,” Prior said. “Sometimes the fix isn’t always the easiest, especially with a guy who doesn’t spend probably the same amount of time on the mechanics of it.”
As a two-way player, Ohtani doesn’t have the “physical bandwidth,” as Prior put it, for things like multiple bullpen sessions between starts, even if they are a week apart. He has to keep the long, grueling season in mind when he’s also in the lineup every day.
“He fixed it, and then I’m wondering if it got aggravated just in-game,” Prior said. “These guys are extreme compensators, and in the moment they don’t necessarily know what they’re doing, but they’re finding other ways to pitch, and then afterwards you find out that things are a little sore.”
Ohtani had a dominant first half, but, whether because of the knee issue, or mechanics, or some combination of the two, he wasn’t quite as sharp in his last four starts (4.38 ERA).
“If he can fix the delivery, then he can fix a little bit more of the execution,” Prior said.
But will the delivery adjustment, All-Star break intervention and attention to workload fix Ohtani’s knee at least through the postseason? The Dodgers’ second-half trajectory will be tied up in the answer.
Jun 29, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Dedniel Nunez (72) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the seventh inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Note: The All Star Break ends for the minor leaguers on the 17th, but the FCL Mets played!
BALTIMORE, MD - JUNE 24: Baltimore Orioles pitcher Keegan Akin (45) pitches during the Cleveland Guardians versus the Baltimore Orioles on June 24, 2024 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Hello, friends.
The All-Star break continues. There’s still not going to be any more Orioles baseball until tomorrow when they start the non-mathematical second half of the season in Houston. We can hope the break is a good mental reset for those players who need one and a good physical reset for those who need one of those. It is a near-certainty that more than one player has been pushing through minor dings. Four days off might actually help with some of that.
Unfortunately, four days off isn’t going to do much to solve the challenge of Blaze Alexander’s broken hand bone. That’s not something that resolves in half of a week. Today is probably the day they’ll make their short-term decision about what to do to replace him on the roster for at least a few days, because they’ll want that player to be able to get to Houston to join the team coming out of the break.
We probably won’t find out until they announce the roster move tomorrow afternoon, or perhaps if the beat writers start putting “So-and-so has a locker here” posts on social media. Tomorrow’s roster move does not necessarily have to be the solution that the team will use from here until when Alexander is back. It also might be. Mike Elias generally does not act with the urgency that Orioles fans would like him to act with.
How much it’s worth paying the urgency premium for this 46-51 team is kind of an ongoing question. The odds for the Orioles are what they are, in the range of about one in eight to about one in five. You don’t want to bet a meaningful piece for the future on a one in eight chance. The odds could change if the Orioles keep playing well. The idea of a long winning streak has always been there for those who want to believe in it. “Well, if they could just win like seven in a row…”
The Orioles finally made it to four. If they were to sweep the Astros coming out of the break, the odds would be much better. They probably won’t sweep the Astros coming out of the break. The more they win over the rest of July, the more the math points more in their favor towards the value of seeking external improvements for this year’s team. Even if they stay on the fringes, finding someone who can help for the rest of this year and next year too might be worth getting. That’s something Elias will have to figure out between now and August 3.
There was some other injury news during yesterday’s off day. The team announced that lefty reliever Keegan Akin underwent Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. Things had been pointing in that direction for a while based on what was known of his elbow injury and they reached the inevitable conclusion yesterday. At this point, Akin may not throw another real MLB pitch until late next season, if not all the way into 2028. Best wishes to Akin as he begins on the long road to recovery here.
The cold reality is this isn’t much of a loss for the 2026 Orioles bullpen. Akin’s 5.68 ERA in 25.1 innings were part of this team’s problems, rather than part of their solutions. Akin being removed as an option is something the Orioles can now definitively plan around, as opposed to pretending Akin will be back in action soon and then pretending that he might pitch to the form he had in either of the past two seasons. He may have thrown his last pitch for the team that drafted him; Akin is a free agent at the end of the season.
Orioles stuff you might have missed
Key upcoming stretch could determine Orioles trade deadline strategy (Orioles.com) Jake Rill notes that these next two series are against teams – the Astros and Red Sox – who are currently between the Orioles and a wild card spot. Finding a way to win each series and gain a game on both would really improve their odds.
The replacement-level killers: First base, second base (FanGraphs) Ahead of each trade deadline, FanGraphs does a series showing which contending teams are weakest at each position. The Orioles, with a Jackson Holliday-heavy second base, show up here. Out of all of the infield positions, that’s the only one, though without Alexander, the third base picture looks tougher.
There are two former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 2026 one-game outfielder Michael Siani, and 1966-67 pitcher Eddie Fisher. The 15-year MLB veteran Fisher passed away last year at age 88.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: civil rights activist Ida B. Wells (1862), Antarctic explorer Roald Amundsen (1872), popcorn man Orville Redenbacher (1907), football Hall of Famer Jimmy Johnson (1943), actor Will Ferrell (1967), and US women’s soccer legend Carli Lloyd (1982).
On this day in history…
In 622, Islam’s prophet Muhammad began the journey leading his followers from Mecca to Medina. This event, the Hijrah, marks the beginning of the Islamic calendar.
In 1790, the District of Columbia was officially established as the capital of the United States.
In 1941, Joe DiMaggio recorded a hit for the 56th consecutive game. This turned out to be the last game in his record hitting streak, a record that still holds today. There are four players tied for the currently active hitting streak lead with hits in eight straight games.
In 1951, The Catcher in the Rye by J.D. Salinger was first published. Did you ever read that one in school?
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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on July 16. Have a safe Thursday.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 14: Brandon Marsh #16 of the Philadelphia Phillies signs a replica Declaration of Independence lineup card during player introductions prior to the 96th MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The fun of All-Star week has concluded and it’s time for real business to start up again. The Phillies will open the unofficial second half of the season tonight when they take on the New York Mets. Aaron Nola will be on the mound against Christian Scott of the Mets for the primetime game on ESPN.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Casey Mize, left, talks to pitcher Tarik Skubal in the dugout during the seventh inning against Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park in Detroit on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Note: This piece was written before the Brewers traded for Lance McCullers Jr. on Wednesday. Ultimately, I don’t believe the Brewers are putting much stock in the oft-injured and otherwise ineffective McCullers as a person to do much besides eat a few innings, so I don’t think that trade materially changes any approach that I suggest they might take below.
Welcome back to the trade deadline primer series here at Brew Crew Ball. In part one, we examined the team’s needs — which, of course, have changed completely since I wrote that piece two weeks ago — and looked at the landscape across the league to see who might be selling (another fool’s errand to do with a month remaining to the deadline). In part two last week, we looked at potential targets that could bolster the Brewers’ bullpen.
Today, the focus is the starting rotation. Since I first wrote the initial piece of this series, Brandon Woodruff got injured and received ominous news that makes it sound like he won’t be pitching again this season. Kyle Harrison was placed on the IL, and while everyone is saying the right things to make us believe it’ll be a short stint that’s geared more toward rest than anything else, the term “forearm tightness” is never something you want to hear.
The point is, the Brewers’ desire for starting pitching is very likely a bigger priority today than it was two weeks ago.
The way I see it, there are two ways the Brewers could go about targeting starting pitching at this deadline, so I’m going to structure this piece a little differently than I did the relief pitcher article. Here, I’m going to break things into two different categories. The first group we’ll look at would be splashier moves aimed at raising the ceiling for the team’s postseason rotation — players who the Brewers would expect to make a start or two in a playoff series. The second (and larger) group is what I’d consider “innings eaters” — players who would maybe would not be expected to start in the playoffs barring injury, but who would be able to capably take some innings and pressure off of the younger starters throughout the rest of the season, thus keeping those arms fresh for the stretch run.
I’ll also try to not just discuss the players themselves, but also how realistic (or not) it might be that the Brewers could or would acquire them.
The Postseason Ceiling-Raisers
Let’s get the big one out of the way first.
Tarik Skubal is a free agent after the season. He has won the Cy Young Award in the American League each of the last two seasons. The assumption is that the Tigers will not be able to afford to keep him. Detroit is 44-52 and in fourth place in the abysmal AL Central.
Since the AL is so bad, the Tigers aren’t completely out of it, and they have played good baseball in July. But they’re still not good, and Skubal, even as a two-month rental, could net them a fortune. While I’m not sure that adding a very tip-top of the rotation arm should be the Brewers’ highest priority, the simple fact is that there isn’t really another player on Skubal’s level that’s expected to move at this deadline (at any position), and there’s certainly no reason why you wouldn’t want to add a guy like Skubal if you were trying to win the World Series.
There are some questions about his health. Skubal missed a few weeks earlier this season to get loose bodies removed from his elbow, but he’s been solid in six starts since coming off the injured list and while his numbers aren’t as good as they have been the last two years, he’s still clearly one of the best pitchers in the league.
A challenge here is that it is assumed that the Dodgers will be in on Skubal. Their top four prospects are all outfielders, three of them are at the same level in the minor leagues, and all four are ranked No. 31 or higher in MLB Pipeline’s top 100. They don’t really need them all, and it would seem logical that they’d be willing to build a package around one of them for the right piece.
The Brewers likely can’t beat a Dodgers offer unless they include Jesús Made (not happening) or Luis Peña (whose trade value may have taken a dip given how much time he’s missed this season). Would the Brewers be willing to part with Peña (and probably at least one more of their top 10 prospects, probably two) for two months and a postseason with Skubal? It doesn’t seem like the type of move this front office would make, particularly since even with Skubal, the Brewers would still be heavy underdogs in a series against LA. Likelihood: 2/10.
Another top-line trade target who has been talked about frequently this season is Minnesota’s Joe Ryan. Ryan, unlike Skubal, is under control next season (he has a mutual option, but if it’s declined, he just goes back to arbitration). Ryan isn’t Skubal, but he’s a really good pitcher: over the past three seasons, he has a 3.33 ERA/3.39 FIP, he’s been mostly healthy, and he’s made two All-Star Games (including this season).
The thing is, though, the Twins are not remotely out of postseason position, even while they are under .500. They don’t look like a good team but they’re only three games back of the third Wild Card in the AL. Their owner also appears to want to compete and doesn’t seem happy with the sell-off his brother oversaw last year. My guess is convincing the Twins to trade Ryan would require a significant overpay for a player that already would’ve demanded a huge prospect package; I don’t think there would be much discernible difference between the cost for Ryan and the cost for Skubal. Plus, the Twins are surely less motivated to make a move than Detroit is even if that package is available. Likelihood: 1/10.
There is another Tigers pitcher who is having an excellent season who is an impending free agent: former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize. It has taken Mize a while to become a good major league pitcher — after a promising rookie season in 2021, he missed most of the next two years when he needed Tommy John surgery. After two seasons as a roughly league-average starter after his return, Mize has found it in 2026 at age 29 to the tune of a 2.79 ERA and even more impressive 2.69 FIP in 14 starts.
From a financial perspective, Mize is quite cheap — his full season salary in 2026 is just $6.15 million — so that could be something that makes him attractive to the Brewers. He’s also got far less of a track record as a good player than either Skubal or Ryan, so while the prospect cost would be significant, it would surely be more palatable. Mize will be a popular target, should the Tigers sell, but he seems far more realistic to me than either of the two guys mentioned above. Likelihood: 4/10
Let’s talk about the next two in tandem. I don’t know if anyone has any idea what the Angels are going to do at this trade deadline; they’re working with interim general manager John Mozeliak, and while they are clearly bad, they also seem to think that “next year is our year,” so I’m skeptical they’ll trade anyone who isn’t a free agent after the season.
If they do entertain that possibility, though, there are two pitchers on their squad who are both 27 and both under control for two more years after this one who would both be intriguing pickups. The first is Reid Detmers, the No. 10 overall pick in 2020 and a former top 30 prospect. Detmers’ major league career thus far has been a roller coaster. As has become the Angels’ M.O., he probably debuted too early — he was barely 22 when he first arrived in the big leagues in 2021. He wasn’t bad in 2022 and 2023, but he wasn’t particularly good, either, and things went sideways in 2024 when he had a 6.70 ERA in 87 innings. Last season, Detmers pitched out of the bullpen, and while his surface-level stats weren’t great, there was some promising stuff under the hood.
That has continued this season. In a return to the rotation, Detmers has a 4.39 ERA — that’s slightly worse than league average — but his FIP is 3.36, and he’s got good peripherals with 10.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. He’s also been quite durable, with 108 2/3 innings pitched as of the All-Star break.
The other interesting Angels pitcher was a big story in the season’s first month but has since cooled. José Soriano allowed just one run through his first six starts of the season — his ERA after six games and 37 2/3 innings was 0.24. Since then, Soriano hasn’t been all that good — he has a 5.15 ERA and 4.89 FIP in 73 1/3 innings across 14 starts since April 28. But I’ve long eyed Soriano as a potential Brewers target because he has certain traits that they value: he throws hard (96.8-mph average fastball velocity), gets ground balls (91st percentile), and has a lot of extension (78th percentile).
I imagine that because of these players’ relative youth, team control, and their high-ish profiles, the cost would be very high. There’s also the fact that no one knows what the Angels are going to do, and if I had to guess, I’d say that they’re going to make anyone who might help beyond this season more-or-less untouchable (even if it’s a dumb stance). Likelihood: 1/10.
What about Toronto’s Kevin Gausman? He’s in the last year of a five-year, $110 million deal signed before the 2022 season, and while he’s got a 4.33 ERA (105 ERA+), his peripherals are very much in line with what he’s done the last couple of seasons. Gausman isn’t as good as he was when he got Cy Young votes each year from 2021-23, but he’s still a solid pitcher who never gets hurt (at least 174 innings each year since 2020) and pitched very well for the Blue Jays in the postseason last year (a 2.93 ERA in 30 2/3 innings across six starts). It’s definitely an open question as to whether the defending American League champs would be willing to sell (they’re just 45-51 but only 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race), but if they do, Gausman is an obvious candidate. Likelihood: 4/10.
One last person that I’ll dedicate some actual time to is someone who is not having a good season, but who would surely get Brewers fans buzzing: Freddy Peralta. Things haven’t gone well for Peralta as a Met, though his peripherals aren’t all that far off what they were during his 2023-24 seasons in Milwaukee. The big concern here is that Peralta’s strikeouts have dipped — his 9.0 K/9 is the lowest of his career, and just the second time he’s ever been in single digits (9.9 in 2022).
The Mets should be willing to deal Peralta. He’s a free agent after the season, and given how poorly things have gone, you’d imagine they’re going to let him hit the open market rather than try to work out an extension before other teams get a crack at him. (They could also be curious to see if he bounces back after the All-Star break.) The optics of trading Peralta back to the Brewers — likely for quite a bit less than they gave up for him — would not be good for an already beleaguered front office. But if they can get something for him, they should. From the Brewers’ side, they may see a player they’re familiar with who they think they can get right, and even if they can’t, he would certainly fit the “innings eater” mold, as he’s been one of the more durable starters in the league over the last four seasons (and it’s not like he’s a disaster this season or anything). Likelihood: 3/10.
Finally, I’m going to zip through a few other potential but, in my opinion, extremely unlikely targets who fit the “ceiling-raiser” type.
San Francisco’s Logan Webb would surely command a king’s ransom if he were available; he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league for basically six years, he’s not 30 yet, and he’s got two more years of team control at an entirely reasonable $18 million a year. We haven’t really gotten any indication that San Francisco is interested in a multi-year rebuild, but if they do think they will go that way, they should absolutely dangle Webb, whose numbers are down a little but are still quite good.
I don’t see the Reds trading within the division really under any circumstances, but especially not when it’s a player who could help the Brewers beat them again next year. But if there were a world where Nick Lodolo was available to the Brewers, I’d be interested, even though his season has been inconsistent.
I suppose we should mention a third Tiger, Jack Flaherty, who is also a free agent after the season. He’s having an OK season, but he’s walking more batters than you’d like and he’s also been inconsistent over the last several years. The other thing with Flaherty is that he’s making a ton of money this season, $32 million, so the Brewers would probably want Detroit to pay some of that down.
Speaking of Detroit, Keider Montero and Troy Melton are both intriguing, but given that neither has even reached arbitration, I suspect the Tigers will hold them for the future, especially if any or all of Skubal, Mize, and Flaherty go. Somebody has to pitch. (Framber Valdez, another Tiger, makes too much money to be a Brewers target.)
There’s a lot of noise around Sonny Gray, who would probably be on the move if the Red Sox sell. Gray, though, has a full no-trade clause and there has been a lot of noise regarding Atlanta, so I don’t see a match with the Brewers.
Michael King is a solid pitcher and of all the starters on the Padres, he is by far the most desirable in a trade. The issue is money: King has player options in each of the next two seasons worth $25 million a year. Would the Brewers be willing to potentially take on $50 million in new money to acquire King?
A common name in trade discussions for over a year now has been Miami’s Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner who is having a good bounce-back year after Tommy John in 2024 and a down season in his first year back. But the Marlins are too good to sell at this point, I think; the surprise team in the NL this year is right in the thick of it, and Alcantara is likely off the block.
There has been some talk that the Mariners would be willing to move one of their starters, as they essentially have six guys who would be in most teams’ top three. But the most likely candidate is the expensive and maybe-not-that-good-anymore Luis Castillo (he’s been a bit better over the last month but is still a net negative on the season), and the Mariners are definitely a team trying to win this season; their needs — a high-leverage reliever and a right-handed hitter — align too closely with the Brewers’ needs to make this a match that works.
The last one to mention in this section: All-Star Eduardo Rodríguez is having a very nice season for Arizona. But there’s a huge gap between his 2.25 ERA and his 4.00 FIP that gives me pause, and he’s not cheap either, with two more years at $20 million each. Rodríguez also has a limited no-trade clause, which he famously invoked when the Dodgers thought they were trading for him at the 2023 deadline. I don’t see this one as much of a possibility.
The Innings Eaters
Okay, so that was a whole bunch of starting pitchers who, were the Brewers to acquire any of them, would be expected to play a real role in a postseason starting rotation. But what if the Brewers aim lower? What if they’re just looking for someone to competently cover a bunch of innings between now and the end of the season so that players like Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison can get enough rest that they’re ready to go full speed in the postseason?
That invites a much larger player pool. These guys wouldn’t be the most exciting acquisitions, but they could certainly play a role. I’m not going to give likelihood ratings here, but I’ll comment on availability when I need to.
Looking back at Cincinnati, Brady Singer is an acquisition that didn’t really work out for them. His numbers this season aren’t very good, and he’ll be a free agent after the season. But what Singer can offer is durability: he has made at least 24 starters every year since 2021 and has thrown over 150 innings in each of the last four seasons. He’s not going to win you many games by himself, but if you’re just looking for a guy who can keep you in it, he’s not a bad choice.
One semi-intriguing option hasn’t pitched since May 15 but could be back by the time we reach the deadline, and that’s the Mets’ Clay Holmes. This is a move that might have a higher ceiling than just “innings eater,” as Holmes was an above-average starter last season and a good reliever for several years before that. But the Brewers would certainly want some guarantee of health before making the move. There’s also murkiness over next season: Holmes holds a $12 million player option for 2027.
Another Met, Sean Manaea, is making way too much money ($22 million this year and next) for a mediocre pitcher. He started the year in long relief, but he’s been solid since returning to the rotation in mid-June. If the Mets ate some of the contract, I could see it, but there’s no way the Brewers would do this if they had to pay the whole contract.
San Francisco has couple of veteran pitchers, Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle, who are both free agents after the season. Mahle’s surface numbers are poor, but the peripherals are a bit better, and he’s been decent at times. Ray is the opposite: the 2021 AL Cy Young winner has good surface-level numbers, but the peripherals are bad. Either could work if expectations are low.
The Royals have a few pitchers who could conceivably be involved in something. Seth Lugo makes too much money to be any sort of realistic target. Michael Wacha has a $14 million club option next season and has been solid, if not spectacular, this season — he’d be one of the higher-end “innings eater” types, but he might be good enough to tempt a new manager to use him in the playoff rotation, which I’m not sure would be good.
Kris Bubic could’ve been an interesting target — he’s a free agent after the season and was an All-Star last year — but he just had a setback in rehab from a shoulder injury, and he probably won’t be ready by the deadline.
There are a few Baltimore pitchers who might be worth sniffing around. Trevor Rogers was excellent in 2025 but hasn’t been nearly as good this year; he’ll be a free agent after the season. Dean Kremer missed two-and-a-half months this year with a strained quad, and he’s only made four starts, but last year’s version was a perfectly fine back-of-rotation starter, and he’s got another year of control. Kyle Bradish has two more years of control, but while he’s healthy this season he’s had injury problems in the past. His value is also low right now, so Baltimore might want to hold him to see if they can get it back up.
Might a team try to buy low on Boston’s Brayan Bello? He’s had a horrible season and was sent back to the minor leagues for most of the last month until returning right before the break. He’s not cheap, with three years and an option remaining all at about $9 million on a big extension he signed prior to the 2024 season. It would be a risky project.
San Diego’s Walker Buehler obviously has some experience, but there’s not a lot to like, there. Also on the Padres, Griffin Canning has been a bit unlucky but walks too many batters. I wouldn’t be excited about Colorado’s Michael Lorenzen, but if all you’re looking for is innings, he could handle it.
Arizona’s Michael Soroka has pitched well this season when he’s been healthy, but he’s currently on the injured list with a glute issue. He should be back before the deadline and might be an interesting pickup. A bigger name on that same club but one who seems to be broken is Zac Gallen, who is a free agent after the season but is making a LOT of money this year. He’s just been getting demolished; not sure what happened to him.
Wrapping up
Kyle Harrison’s availability moving forward is likely to be the biggest influence on what the Brewers do at the trade deadline. If the Brewers think (or know) that Harrison is fine but just needs a little rest, then you might see them pick up an innings eater type who, if needed, could throw a few innings in the postseason — think about a version of Jose Quintana from 2025.
But if the Brewers are worried about Harrison — or Misiorowski, for that matter — making it to the end of the season at full effectiveness, they might — and maybe should — make a more aggressive move.
If they’re aggressive, the names that make the most sense to me are Casey Mize, Kevin Gausman, or — as wild as it might seem — Freddy Peralta. If they go the other route and look for someone to fill in toward the back of the rotation, I could see Tyler Mahle or Michael Lorenzen as options. If they’re looking to thread the needle and going for a pitcher who is more of a question but has a bit of upside, I wouldn’t be shocked by a move for Clay Holmes, Michael Soroka, or Trevor Rogers.
The Skubal move just doesn’t feel right to me right now. The aging Dodgers can’t keep this up forever, and while they’ll surely keep replenishing, the Brewers might think they’ll be a little closer in a year or two, at which point they’ll make an all-in move or two. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but this is a fairly deliberate front office who has put a lot of faith in building from within. Getting a player for such a short period of time who won’t even make them the league’s favorite just doesn’t feel like a Matt Arnold move.
May 26, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates general manager Ben Cherington observes batting practice before the Pirates play the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Pirates fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
The MLB Trade Deadline is August 3. The Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting at 50-47. They are 9.5 games back in the division but just 2 games back of a Wild Card. The Pirates are typically sellers at the deadline. This week’s question is what do you think this year? Will the Pirates be buyer or sellers?
Cast your vote, tell us in the comments, and we’ll be back soon with the results.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 14: Cody Bellinger #35 and Ben Rice #22 of the New York Yankees speak during the first inning of the 2026 MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park on July 14, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The All-Star break giving us a four-day reprieve before kicking off the unofficial second half of the season is always a good time for reflection, as many front offices are surely doing with their rosters in the weeks remaining before the trade deadline. A lot can still happen to change up what the Yankees are working with, but until a move is made the team that they’ve got on paper needs to be the one showing up on the field. They finally pulled out of their tailspin in the week before the break, splitting a series with the Rays and sweeping the Nationals to give themselves a platform to hopefully spring off of once they’re back starting on Friday, but they’ve got a tough schedule in front of them.
The Yankees are in the tougher half of the toughest remaining schedules leaguewide with the 12th hardest foes left to face from the rest of July through September, and a few of the biggest ones are right on the horizon. Right out of the gate they’ve got the two-time defending champion Dodgers visiting the Bronx, and following them is a Pirates team that has surprisingly been rather competent surfacing over .500 this season. A road trip to Philadelphia is next up, and the Phillies have completely turned their season around since firing Rob Thomson and installing Yankee legend Don Mattingly as the interim manager putting them just two games behind Atlanta for first place in the NL East. A week in Chicago rounds out the month with both the White Sox and Cubs coming up back-to-back, and the ChiSox are another surprise as they narrowly lead the AL Central with the Cubs remaining a solid postseason threat in the middle of the NL Wild Card.
That’s a lot of contending teams to face in a row, and while the Yankees may have had a good week finally they’ll need to be on their A-game to not continue sliding down the standings with that many strong opponents on the docket. The schedule doesn’t let up from there, but let’s zoom in on this stretch to close out July for a moment. With the expectation that the big clump in the standings is going to force teams to wait around until the last minute before committing to being buyers or sellers, it’s reasonable to assume that the roster as it stands is going to be the ones handling this stretch, and it’s a crucial one. So how can we expect the Yankees to handle it, and how many series can they convert into wins?
Their immediate challenge with Los Angeles would certainly set the tone if they can win it, and they’ll be rolling out the top of their rotation rested and fresh with Cam Schlittler going in the first game to give themselves a chance, but I don’t think anyone would be surprised if they only came away with a win at most from the three-game set. Pittsburgh is a different discussion though, and for all the good they’ve done this year they have to be viewed as a team for the Yankees to beat. The Phillies are the pivotal point in this run, as the second-best team of the bunch and the first stop in a lengthy road trip — winning two out of three here would be a statement that the Yankees are back.
The White Sox got smashed the last time they faced New York, giving up 10+ runs in back-to-back games, and will be looking for vengeance on their home turf, but even though they’re a division leader they’re one of the weaker ones in all of baseball. With a four-game set the even split is the most common outcome, but tilting it in the Bombers’ favor is the kind of result they’ll need to catch the Rays. The Cubs will be a tough task to round things out with, and the prospect of facing them to end a 10-game road trip is daunting — I don’t know if they’ll be able to manage that, but expecting to win every series is impossible and I wouldn’t fault them for stumbling here if they play up to their lofty standards in the thick of this stretch. All in all, I see an 11-6 or 10-7 run to open the second half as a realistic goal if the Yankees are done stumbling all over themselves. Do you think it could be better? Is hoping for .500 with all of these contenders in the way the best they could hope for? Let us know what you think down below.
We’ve got a chill day ahead as we take our last day of rest before starting the dog days of summer. Nick leads off with a look at one of the few names that has been directly linked to the Yankees in trade rumors so far with Ryan Jeffers, and Matt follows with a birthday post for Tom Metcalf and the charming run he had in his lone year in the majors. Peter and Andrés both take Paul Blackburn under the microscope, with the former giving him the Sequence of the Week treatment while the latter looks at his breakout season at large. Then, Josh will preview the pitching matchups we’ll see when the Dodgers arrive tomorrow to kick off the post-break push.
Today’s Matchup
Off-day (Yankees will resume tomorrow at home against the Dodgers at 7:05 p.m. EST)
PHILADELPHIA — Within a 162-game campaign, there are multiple seasons within a season, each segment sowing hope or despair or perhaps just drudgery. Make it to July in decent shape, though, and anything’s possible.
A 45-24 tear to end the first half – Wheeler winning 10 of his 11 decisions – nudged the Phillies within two games of first place in the National League East – and firmly in wild card contention.
“Once we got Wheels back,” All-Star first baseman Bryce Harper tells USA TODAY Sports, “everybody took a deep breath and understood he was coming back and was going to do his job and do it well. That helped a lot of our other starting pitching fall into place and understand Wheels was going to do his job and everything was going to be OK.
“Once he got back, things started rolling a little more and kind of took off from there.”
And here we are, poised on the eve of the second half, with a mass of mediocrity huddled in the standings and 20 of 30 teams harboring fairly legitimate playoff hopes. Some are far better off than others, though, and with that in mind, USA TODAY Sports breaks down the tiers of playoff contenders as the season re-starts Friday, July 16:
For what it’s worth, this group’s playoff odds, per FanGraphs, land in the 91-100% range, and you can guess which team enjoys the latter projection. Atlanta holds just a two-game lead over Philadelphia, and both teams possess below-average farm systems, which will make the trade deadline upgrade game fascinating. But Atlanta’s big league product features superior depth than the Phillies.
Milwaukee can largely rest on its first-half laurels and cruise to the postseason, but injuries to starting pitchers Kyle Harrison and Brandon Woodruff complicate matters. The Brewers hold a five-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central; the teams will face each other seven times in 10 games as August turns to September, spurring memories of their fairly epic five-game 2025 NLDS matchup won by the Brewers.
“Every game felt like a Game 7,” remembers Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski. “It didn’t matter if it was a Game 1 or a Game 3. It was a lot of fun.”
Despite the loss of Aaron Judge, the Yankees and Rays are simply the only teams with a semblance of consistency in the AL. The Rays have a three-game lead over the Yankees and 10 over third-place Boston. The Yankees should face the same scenario last year, a wild card in hand and a battle for the division, with Tampa Bay replacing Toronto. In case you were wondering: The Rays hold a 6-3 head-to-head advantage, so the Yankees best not tie for the division title once again.
We’ll ship the Phillies and Cubs into the NL field, one way or another. As for the AL slog?
Throw a dart, essentially. One of the Mariners and Rangers should win the West, and both have the pitching and pedigree to play with a semblance of consistency in the second half. Texas – now 49-47 - is an interesting sleeper: The Rangers have crawled to the .500 mark with an interesting mix of ’23 championship holdovers and new blood.
“We’ve gotten through the hardest part of our schedule playing above .500 baseball and we still don’t have our full team there,” All-Star closer Jacob Latz says. “We’re missing Corey (Seager). The guys are starting to find their groove a bit. They’ve done it before. They know what it takes to get there.
“Everyone’s starting to peak at the same time. Which is what happened in ’23.”
The Guardians are in a dead heat with the White Sox in the Central, but boast a more potent and precise pitching staff, along with a core that gutted out a pair of playoff berths the past two seasons.
Tier 3 – Slightly better than a coin flip: Marlins, Pirates, White Sox
Any of these guys would spice up the playoff field, if only due to their upstart nature. Naturally, everyone wants to see Paul Skenes in a playoff setting, but he needs to start pitching better (a 6.64 ERA in his last four first half starts) to push the Pirates in the right direction.
Will the White Sox ever get in too deep? Now they’ve got Munetaka Murakami back, and the always dangerous power of belief. Not writing them off yet.
Tier 4 – Longshots: Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros, Tigers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Padres
Ugly, ugly, ugly. Safe to say seven of these eight teams are massive disappointments – save for the Cardinals, who are a game out of a wild card spot yet exhibited little effort to contend this season.
“We play hard for each other,” says Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien. “We show up every day ready to work. Regardless of whether we win or lose, we move on, we flush it and today’s a new day.
“We have a ton of talent. And I think as we continue to play for each other and put that talent on the field, good things are going to happen in the second half.”
The Red Sox have not lost since July 1, have pulled within two games of .500 and are probably more intriguing right now than the Orioles and Blue Jays, whose maddening inconsistencies make it difficult to put much stock in their playoff hopes.
And while the Tigers have just a 27.3% chance to make the playoffs, consider them the team to watch: They can upset all this hierarchy if they fade from contention and choose to trade ace Tarik Skubal.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 19: New York Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner is interviewed as he celebrates the team's 5-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians in ten innings in Game Five of the American League Championship Series at Progressive Field on October 19, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Bloomberg | Silas Brown and Randall Williams: The Yankees are reportedly moving closer to raising $3 billion of financing from Apollo Global Management, Inc. The package is mostly comprised of debt and equity. Per the NY Post, the fresh capital is expected to be used ‘to refinance existing obligations and fund future expansion projects.’
ESPN | Kiley McDaniel: The 2026 MLB Draft is now in the books, and you can say that the Yankees added some exciting prospects. McDaniel updated each team’s top 10 prospects list and added the Bombers’ first two picks, left-handers Hunter Dietz and Sean Duncan, in the sixth and seventh spots, respectively. Fellow southpaw Henry Lalane (No. 8) and third baseman Richard Matic (No. 10) also cracked the list.
NY Post | Jon Heyman: A few weeks ago, former Yankees and current Red Sox closer Aroldis Chapman suggested that if the Bombers wanted to acquire him before the deadline, he would need an apology from general manager Brian Cashman. That doesn’t appear to be the case anymore. “I turned the page a long time ago,” Chapman told the Post. “They asked me a question and I answered it.”
Chapman’s tenure in New York ended on a sour note back in 2022, but the left-hander appears to be over it. A trade, however, is highly unlikely at this point, even though he has been magnificent this year with a 2.20 ERA.
Newsday | Erik Boland: The Yankees enter the second half with a 54-42 record, three games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East. Per Boland, there are five burning questions surrounding the team at this point. He wonders about Aaron Judge’s return date, Ben Rice’s ability to keep up his torrid run, Gerrit Cole and his ability to return to top form, and more.
The Phillies return from the All-Star break and host the New York Mets on Thursday night.
Before Aaron Nola takes the mound and the boos start raining down on Juan Soto at Citizens Bank Park, let’s take a look at five storylines that will impact the Phils as the games get bigger and they try to make the postseason for a fifth straight year.
THE TRADE DEADLINE
At various times this season, the Phillies’ top need has appeared to be a right-handed outfield bat or a back-end starting pitcher. The club would still benefit from both, though newcomer Derek Hill’s contributions on both sides of the ball have at least partially addressed some of the outfield deficit.
In recent weeks, bullpen has probably become the team’s No. 1 need, specifically a quality late-game leverage arm that can help deliver the ball to All-Star closer Jhoan Duran. It doesn’t really matter if the Phils get a lefty or a righty, as long as it’s a quality arm that throws strikes. In a perfect world, however, it would be a left-hander because Jose Alvarado has struggled. Aroldis Chapman would be the pie-in-the-sky acquisition, but his Boston Red Sox rallied before the break and are just a half-game out of the last wild-card spot in the American League.
Not only has Alvarado struggled but right-hander Brad Keller, signed in the offseason to pitch in leverage situations in the seventh and eighth innings, recently missed time with forearm inflammation. Keller is back now, but eyebrows were raised over the weekend when he was not used in Detroit. That’s something to keep an eye on.
Since June 1, the Phillies’ bullpen ranks 25th in the majors with a 5.21 ERA. In July, it ranks 29th with an 8.05 ERA and has walked 5.45 batters per nine, second-most in the majors over that span.
The trade deadline is August 3. The Phillies are in the midst of their annual search for bullpen help. Baseball boss Dave Dombrowski got a good one in Duran last year. He doesn’t have a deep farm system to entice potential trade partners, but he’ll get something done. With a high-priced, aging, win-now team, the stakes are just too high not to.
Fans aren’t the only ones curious to see what happens.
The players are, too. Especially the guy in the first locker with the colorful spikes.
“I think you know what we need, what we’re good at and what we’re not good at right now,” Bryce Harper said at All-Star media day Monday. “Obviously John (Middleton) wants to win. He’s going to put all his chips in where he needs to, but he’s going to be smart about our future as well. I’ve said this before. Obviously, I like the future of our organization and we need our future, but you’ve got to try to win as well. So whatever that looks like, I think Dave is going to do a great job, or I hope he does, and gets the things we need.”
RACE FOR THE CY
Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler are right in the thick of a crowded NL Cy Young race that could go down to the wire. They rank Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in bWAR for pitchers in the NL – Sanchez at 5.4 and Wheeler at 4.8.
Sanchez, who finished second in the voting last season, ranks second in the NL in innings (127 1/3) and strikeouts (144). He is sixth in ERA at 2.62. He racked up the fifth-longest scoreless innings streak (50 2/3 innings) in MLB history earlier this season.
Since the streak ended, however, Sanchez carries an ERA of 4.50 in eight starts. Makes you wonder if he’s getting a little fatigued. Something to keep an eye on as the second half gets going.
Wheeler missed five starts at the beginning of the season so he does not yet qualify for the league ERA lead. If he did, his mark of 2.13 ERA would be second-best in the NL to Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski. His 0.892 WHIP would also be second in the league. Wheeler projects to have enough innings to qualify for the league lead by mid-August. He has twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and badly wants to win one. His innings total may end up being around 170. Can he win it at that number? Sure, he can. Corbin Burnes won the award with 167 innings in 2021, beating out Wheeler, who led the majors with 213 1/3 that season.
Sanchez and Wheeler face plenty of competition for the Cy Young. Misiorowski, Chris Sale, Chase Burns, Eduardo Rodriguez, Max Meyer and Shohei Ohtani, among others, are all in the mix.
SOME NOTABLE SERIES
The Phillies have a big one next week when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers for three games at Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers have the best record in the majors and eliminated the Phillies from the postseason last year. Once again, they look to be a team the Phillies must get past if they want to make the World Series. The Phils lost two of three at Dodger Stadium in May. They’ll have another chance to measure themselves against baseball’s best next week.
A week after seeing the Dodgers, the Phils travel to Miami for three against a surging Marlins team that is right on their heels in the NL East and wild-card races. Miami has the best record (26-11) in the majors since June 1 and is 31-20 at home.
The Phils come back from the All-Star break trailing first-place Atlanta by two games. The Marlins are just four back. The Phillies and Braves will square off seven times in 10 days in early September.
HELP FROM THE MINORS?
If the Phils spend their limited trade currency to add bullpen or outfield help, they may not have enough to address the back end of their starting rotation. They would love nothing more than to see enough improvement in Andrew Painter to bring him back from Triple A.
It’s worth keeping an eye on Gage Wood’s progress at Double A. Would Dombrowski bring last year’s first-rounder to the majors down the stretch to help in the bullpen? It probably depends on the hard-throwing right-hander’s ability to throw strikes. It might be a long shot, but Dombrowski has been bold in the past.
Right-handed reliever Alex McFarlane is also at Double A, striking out almost 12 batters per nine innings. However, he’s walking almost five per nine. He throws hard and features a good slider. Maybe he earns a look if he can throw strikes.
Also, veteran Tommy Pham is still in the minors. The right-handed hitting outfielder could be in the mix if he gets hot.
CHASING RECORDS
Kyle Schwarber leads the majors with 32 homers. He’s on pace for 56, which would equal his NL-leading total from last season. Can Schwarber break Ryan Howard’s club record of 58, set in 2006? Can he get to 60?
Schwarber is 28 shy of 400 homers in his career. Bryce Harper is just 17 short of 400. Can they both get there this season?
On the flipside, Schwarber leads the majors with 144 strikeouts and is on pace to break the all-time single-season record of 223, set by Arizona’s Mark Reynolds in 2009.
Harper, who missed time each of the last five seasons with injury, has been remarkably durable this season. He’s played in all 97 games. Manager Don Mattingly knows he must get Harper an occasional day off in the second half to optimize production.
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Expanded playoffs make it harder to predict whether Tarik Skubal and other choice acquisitions will be dealt before the Aug, 3 trade deadline.
Twenty-three of the 30 teams are within four games of a playoff position heading into the season’s second half, which opens Thursday with the back-in-contention Philadelphia Phillies hosting the woeful New York Mets.
“You’ve got a lot of really good teams that were on the bubble that have gotten in and kind of made it,” Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper said. “Anybody that has an opportunity to get in, anything can happen and that’s what makes our sport great.”
Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner who can become a free agent after the World Series, is the most prominent possible trade bait. The 29-year-old left-hander is 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA in six starts for the Detroit Tigers since surgery on May 6 to remove a loose body from his pitching elbow.
Detroit was 22-38 at the start of June — at 16 games under matching the 1914 Braves (12-28) as the most under .500 of a team that rebounded to reach the postseason, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The Tigers are 22-14 since and trail by 3 1/2 games for the last AL wild card, needing to overcome six teams. Their performance in 16 games before the deadline will help determine whether they are buyers or sellers.
Minnesota’s Joe Ryan and the Mets’ Freddy Peralta also could become available. The Mets also could deal left-handed relievers Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter to contenders and San Francisco may try to jettison second baseman Luis Arraez.
Baseball’s only division leads of more than three games are held by the Los Angeles Dodgers (11 1/2) and Milwaukee (five).
“There are some middling teams that are potentially going to finish stronger and some teams that are front-running right now that might fall back to the pack,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “It’s what the fans wanted. It keeps everyone involved through September, as many teams as possible.”
Just seven teams of the 30 teams are more than four games out of a wild-card berth: the Athletics (6 1/2), Cincinnati (eight), Kansas City and the Los Angeles Angels (10 each), the Giants (10 1/2), the Mets (12) and Colorado (13 1/2).
“I think having more teams involved and more fan bases feeling like there’s something to play for later in the season is always good,” said Toronto pitcher Dylan Cease, the All-Star Game winner.
Phillies rebound after Mattingly becomes manager
Philadelphia fell to 9-19 when Rob Thomson was fired on April 28 and replaced by Don Mattingly. The Phillies are 44-24 since and trail NL East-leading Atlanta (55-40) by two games.
“Once we got Wheels back, I think everybody kind of took a deep breath,” Harper said. “That helped a lot of our other starting pitching kind of just fall into place.”
Despite a 46-48 record, the Red Sox trail by just a half-game for the last wild card in an AL that has just five teams with winning records.
“We’ve done a much better job overall with our approach,” Tracy said. “We’re taking more pitches. We’re seeing more pitches against starters. We are getting starters deep in counts earlier in games. We’re scoring runs in the first five innings of the game and letting our starting rotation pitch with a lead.”
If the Red Sox struggle in the next few weeks, closer Aroldis Chapman and starter Sonny Gray could get dealt.
First-round byes at stake
Three of the four teams that had first-round byes last year advanced to League Championship Series: Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Seattle and Toronto. Among the teams emerging from Wild Card Series, only the Dodgers won their Division Series.
Having the bye allows teams to reset their rotations and assure opening the Division Series with their best starters.
Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler thought back to New York losing the AL East title and the bye to Toronto on a tiebreaker last year.
In this week's Closer Report, Mason Miller remains at the top of the closer rankings at the All-Star break. Bryan Baker, Louis Varland, and Jacob Latz highlight some of the first half's biggest closer breakouts. All that and more as we cover the saves landscape around baseball going into the second half.
⚾️ Baseball is back! MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
Mason Miller - San Diego Padres
Jhoan Duran - Philadelphia Phillies
Cade Smith - Cleveland Guardians
Louis Varland - Toronto Blue Jays
Josh Hader - Houston Astros
Bryan Baker - Tampa Bay Rays
Miller locked down back-to-back saves over the weekend heading into the break, tossing a pair of scoreless innings against the Blue Jays. The 27-year-old right-hander ends the first half with 25 saves while posting a 0.91 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts over 39 2/3 innings. Padres general manager A.J. Preller iterated that the team has no intention of trading Miller at the deadline. Things can always change over the next two weeks, but the Padres would understandably need an incredible offer to move Miller, who has three years left of team control.
Duran also picked up two saves before the break, giving him 24 with a 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts over 32 2/3 frames. He's been nothing short of outstanding for the Phillies in his first full year with the team.
Smith was busy before the break, making four appearances this week. He added two saves, giving him an MLB-leading 28. The 27-year-old right-hander is on pace for a near carbon copy of his 2025 season, proving himself as one of the league's top closers.
Varland has been one of this season's biggest breakouts at the closer position, taking over the ninth-inning role in Toronto. He added a save on Friday against the Padres, giving him 19 with a 1.10 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts over 49 innings.
Hader took the loss against the Rangers on Sunday, giving up one run on three hits without recording an out. Still, it's been an exceptional start for the 32-year-old left-hander, posting a 1.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 25 strikeouts over 15 1/3 innings while converting 10 saves since his season debut on June 3.
No saves for Baker over the final weekend. He's been another gem through the first half, emerging as one of the top closers in baseball. The 31-year-old right-hander has converted 25 saves for the Rays with a 1.73 ERA over 36 1/3 innings.
▶ Tier 2
David Bednar - New York Yankees
Aroldis Chapman - Boston Red Sox
Raisel Iglesias- Atlanta Braves
Andrés Muñoz - Seattle Mariners
Jacob Latz - Texas Rangers
Trevor Megill - Milwaukee Brewers
Tanner Scott - Los Angeles Dodgers
Riley O'Brien - St. Louis Cardinals
Bednar has been on an incredible run over the last two months. He's gone 16 straight appearances without allowing an earned run, dating back to May 22. Before then, he had a 5.14 ERA over 21 innings. Now, he's worked that down to a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 40 frames while converting 18 saves on the year.
Chapman has had a strong first half. He picked up a win and a save, giving him 19 saves with a 2.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts over 28 2/3 innings. The Red Sox completed a 9-0 road trip before the All-Star break and suddenly find themselves back in the playoff race, which could affect how they approach the trade deadline. Chapman and Garrett Whitlock were believed to be on the trade market, but a strong finish to the half could now make them buyers over the next couple of weeks.
Iglesias added his 19th save with a scoreless inning against the Cardinals on Sunday. The team is still waiting for the return of setup man Robert Suarez, but he has yet to be cleared to resume throwing as he remains on the injured list with right elbow inflammation. Dylan Lee has stepped up with 19 holds and a 1.47 ERA.
Muñoz made one more appearance before the break, striking out two in a scoreless inning against the Rays in a non-save situation on Sunday. He ends the first half on a strong note, going 10 straight outings without allowing a run. The Mariners are believed to be in the market for another high-leverage reliever at the deadline, with Matt Brash still on the 15-day injured list with a lat strain.
Fantasy managers who were early on Latz have been rewarded with 18 saves, a 1.61 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts over 44 2/3 innings. He also picked up his second win with a scoreless inning against the Astros on Sunday.
Megill didn't make an appearance over the weekend. He ends his first half with a 3.00 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts over 36 innings. Megill had taken a step back from the closer role for a while, but took back the lead with a strong May and June, taking 14 saves into the break.
Scott has been solid filling in for Edwin Díaz, converting 13 saves with a 2.56 ERA across 38 2/3 innings. But his time as the Dodgers' closer may be nearing an end. At least the primary share of closing duties. Díaz has tossed two scoreless innings so far in his minor league rehab assignment. He'll likely need at least a few more outings, but a return later this month seems imminent.
O'Brien made two appearances before the break, picking up a pair of saves against the Braves. He's up to 24 saves with a 3.43 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts over 39 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old right-hander represented the Cardinals in his first All-Star game.
▶ Tier 3
Paul Sewald - Arizona Diamondbacks
Emilio Pagán - Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen - Detroit Tigers
Grant Taylor - Chicago White Sox
Yoendrys Gómez - Minnesota Twins
Devin Williams - New York Mets
Sewald ended the first half with two clean outings against the Padres and Dodgers, adding two saves to give him 22. The 36-year-old right-hander has been prone to giving up home runs, but has been otherwise solid and dependable for the Diamondbacks.
Pagán has made three appearances, picking up one save, since his return from a two-month absence on the injured list with a hamstring strain. The 35-year-old right-hander has recorded seven saves with a 6.06 ERA over 16 1/3 innings.
Jansen added one more save on the week, giving him 11 with a 4.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 25 strikeouts over 23 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Taylor picked up his fourth save for the White Sox, his second in July. If that trend continues following the All-Star break, Taylor will be quickly rising up the rankings.
It's not the best closer profile, as the underlying skills suggest Gómez has pitched above his head, but he continues to get the job done for the Twins. He added his 11th save with a 3.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts over 43 2/3 innings.
In New York, there's some speculation heading into the second half that the Mets could give Williams a break from the closer role after he blew a save on Sunday against the Red Sox. He went into the break with a 4.83 ERA over 31 2/3 innings. Luke Weaver would make for a solid speculative pickup. He's been excellent, with a 1.85 ERA over 39 innings. Weaver recorded eight saves for the Yankees in 2025 and could fill the role for the Mets, especially if they'd like to showcase him before the trade deadline. Interim manager Andy Green stated that Williams will remain the closer as the second half starts, but it's certainly worth monitoring.
▶ Tier 4
Gregory Soto/Mason Montgomery - Pittsburgh Pirates
Kaleb Kilian - San Francisco Giants
Clayton Beeter - Washington Nationals
Tyler Wells/Andrew Kittredge - Baltimore Orioles
Pete Fairbanks - Miami Marlins
Jacob Webb/Trent Thornton - Chicago Cubs
There was some speculation that Soto could be losing hold of the closer role as he struggled through June. Both he and Montgomery picked up a save during Saturday's doubleheader against the Brewers.
It was not the best end to the half for Kilian, who surrendered three runs without recording an out to blow a save against the Rockies on Friday. JT Brubaker picked up a save the next day, and Erik Miller could be in the mix against left-handed hitters to close out games.
The Nationals have had one of the worst bullpens in baseball as late-inning struggles continue to hold the team back. Beeter contributed with a blown save on Saturday against the Yankees. Still, he's the favorite for saves, leading the team with seven, to go with a 3.62 ERA across 27 1/3 innings.
A week after Wells stepped up with two saves for the Orioles, it was Kittredge who converted a pair of saves in Baltimore. The team will likely continue to use a committee approach, with six relievers on the roster having recorded a save.
Fairbanks surrendered a solo homer in a non-save situation on Sunday for his final outing of the first half. The 32-year-old right-hander has struggled with a 6.83 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts over 29 innings. And it's a full committee in Chicago, where Webb and Thornton each recorded a save for the Cubs before the break.
▶ Tier 5
Alex Lange - Kansas City Royals
Jordan Romano - Colorado Rockies
Sam Bachman/Kirby Yates - Los Angeles Angels
Elvis Alvarado/Hogan Harris - Athletics
Lange has been hit with some serious regression over his last few outings, giving up ten runs over his last four appearances. Still, he remains the favorite for saves on the Royals.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 14: Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves poses for a picture with his family during the 2026 All-Star Red Carpet Show presented by Mastercard at Independence Mall on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
It’s the “break” part of the All-Star break now, as the festivities are complete and the team doesn’t return to action until Friday. There are still select minor league games, transactions, and draft pick signings left to track, however.
The decision to sell before the trade deadline (Aug. 3) has never been easier.
Outside of their biggest stars (Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor) and promising rookies (Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Nolan McLean), the Mets could make virtually anyone available to improve their standing in 2027 and beyond.
That includes Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes and Huascar Brazobán.
Pending free agents include Freddy Peralta, A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley and Tyrone Taylor.
Who’s next?
Amid one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history, the Mets have found glimmers of hope in a crop of youngsters, including Benge, Ewing, McLean, Christian Scott and Zach Thornton.
Luke Weaver could be a trade piece for the Mets to deal to a contending team before the trade deadline. Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
A series of trades could open additional roster spots, creating potential call-up opportunities for starters Jonah Tong and Jack Wenninger, power-hitting first baseman Ryan Clifford and outfielder Nick Morabito, among others.
Who believes?
You only have to go back to last season to be reminded that the second half of the season may not look anything like it did before the All-Star break. Soto could finish with MVP-like numbers.
Lindor could bust out after missing 57 games and hitting .216. Bo Bichette is hitting .315 since June 1. Marcus Semien and Devin Williams have made a combined five All-Star appearances this decade.
Francisco Alvarez, 24, could still get closer to his potential. This projected 2026 contender will be running many of the same faces back next season. A second-half surge could salvage some optimism from a lost season.
Second-half schedule
July 16, 18-19: at Phillies July 20-22: at Brewers July 24-26: vs. Dodgers July 27-29: vs. Braves July 30-Aug. 2: vs. Marlins Aug. 4-6: at Guardians Aug. 7-9: at Pirates Aug. 10-12: at Braves Aug. 14-16: vs. Nationals Aug. 17-19: vs. Padres Aug. 21-23: at White Sox Aug. 25-27: vs. Brewers Aug. 28-30: vs. Astros Aug. 31-Sept. 2: at Rays Sept. 4-6: vs. Giants Sept. 7-9: at Marlins Sept. 11-13: at Yankees Sept. 14-16: vs. Orioles Sept. 17-20: vs. Phillies Sept. 22-24: at Rangers Sept. 25-27: at Nationals
Eric Samulski
