This past Sunday morning before the Mariners finally rose to the occasion and won one (1) game against their direct divisional competition the Texas Rangers, the LL Slack channel sprang to life with an impromptu and lively discussion on what further changes could be in store shortly if the Mariners continue losing games. What follows below is an abridged version with occasional notes and commentary by me in italics. Give it a read and let us know what we missed in the comments or give us your hot takes on what needs to change and/or what will change in the near future for the Mariners.
Evan James, 9:56 AM: I would advise everyone to enjoy today’s game, and tomorrow’s. I think change is afoot if they get swept, likely even if not.
(Evan then posted a link to part of the score from Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey”)
Eric Sanford: Are you thinking front office change? Firing Dan? Trading starters?
Evan: Dan. It maybe deserves more nuance than that, but it starts there. I don’t like it this way, and I didn’t want it this way, but it sure does feel like time. You, as a fan, are immortal. You will outlive coaches, players, owners, general managers, competitive windows. You have a future, always, as long as there are still jerseys to sell. Nothing changes for you. (I haven’t seen “The Odyssey” yet but I’m assuming Evan is referencing it here, that’s my best guess)
John Trupin: I don’t think they fire Dan a week after firing one hitting coach. Not to say it couldn’t happen, but I think that doesn’t really showcase any meaning in firing Magallenes if it gets five days of impact time.
Evan: Respectfully, if they go 0-4 against Texas this series…I can feel it in the air, in my bones. (What about 1-3? Guess we’re about to find out!)
Zach Gottschalk: I feel like Dan gets to the end of the season. At least until September.
John: The (Adam) Jude interview with Jerry really emphasized that they’d felt the old school, contact-heavy, data-lite approach they’d leaned into last year and this year was worth riding given how good the bats were last year. And that Papparella is quite a lot more like DeHart in being a big data guy.
Evan: They are not firing Dan in September. It will be sooner if it comes. I don’t like this, I am not happy I feel this way or I feel the need to communicate it, but this is where we are.
Ryan Blake: Fire Dipoto is the train I’m on. (bah gawd that’s ryan blake’s music!!!! ryan, that man has a family!!!)
Zach Mason: I don’t know what to do with Ryan being wrong. It’s a new feeling.
Ryan: If we’re going to fire anybody? I’d prefer the FO (front office). Dan’s fine in my opinion.
Evan: Whether or not that’s correct (firing Dipoto), they’re not doing it. The minor leagues continue to be far too competent to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Ryan: To be fair, so has the majors, and nobody is okay with that. I also frankly hated Dipoto’s quotes on Magallanes and am heated about it.
Evan: I agree with you on that, buts there’s a hierarchy, even to failure. Dominoes have to fall in order.
Ryan: I guess I just don’t think this season is anybody’s fault necessarily and the team is mostly unlucky, but the strategy of aiming just above the middle over and over and over means sometimes you get this result. I think i’m onto “let’s try for real now.”
ZAM: I have been frustrated by that approach in the past, but I think this is the year they actually pushed some chips in. This was finally the roster that they built to try for more than 54%.
Ryan: True.
ZAM: I really don’t have a lot of blame for this disaster. When the biggest under-performers are the heart of the team and the guys with the most reliable track records, what are you supposed to do?
Ryan: I guess if the team were to fire Wilson, I’d have some pretty choice words for the FO. Firing magallanes is useless and desperate and if I’m to believe “there are consequences to our results” then I’m not looking at Magallanes getting canned as any sort of consequence. I don’t know. It’s been 10 years. They fired Servais to shake things up, maybe it’s time for a new FO. Since 2022, the Mariners are:
– 7th in W% (54%)
– 7th in RD (54% pythag)
– 9th in Total WAR (51% WAR wins)
– 10th in Batter WAR
– 5th in Batting
– 18th in Fielding
– 19th in Base Running
– 9th in Pitcher WAR
– 3rd in SP
– 17th in RP
ZAM: This is the fifth season of the post-rebuilding era. I really don’t have complaints about the 2022, 2023, or 2025 teams, and I don’t blame the FO for the 2026 team’s problems.
Evan: If you’re ownership, even with the performance of the team, attendance is slightly up, and they’ve migrated to a new distribution platform for video streaming. All other sales are still solid. This year is a reset competitively, but not in any way on the business side. Things could be better, but they are not bad. You want someone who can make a more competitively consistent product perhaps, but you value the cost effectiveness of the minor league system and the budget above all else.
John: Attendance is up a lot, but that’s majorly from last year’s success. And the investments they’ve made in the roster are long term. I agree on this year being most to blame on the most important players, who were huge contributors last year and are in their 20’s and under contract for years, reeking of sewage. And Ryan, you put together that great piece on Naylor, the biggest culprit assuming he’s largely healthy seemed to be a godawful approach at the plate. To me, that’s plausibly a coaching issue.
Evan: I do wonder what they make of Julio/Cal internally. And I don’t mean in any super negative way but so much as, what are the revisited projections for these guys looking like? Is the defense coming back for Julio? Is Cal going to be something substantial again?
Eric: It’s really insane that every position player outside Randy and maybe Young and Colt have all under-performed to a point where they can’t keep a lead in a terrible division and the even the rotation that has the potential to be best in baseball has also severely under-performed. Oh, and the bullpen has regressed but that seems to happen every other season regardless. Like how can so many talented guys all play like such ass for such a prolonged period?
John: As a team this year, they are 7th-highest in swing rate at pitches out of the zone, 8th-highest in contact on those pitches. They’re 16th in in-zone swing rate by contrast, and LAST in in-zone contact rate! Perhaps the most important thing if you’re trying to be a “go the other way, hit line drives” kind of offense. And they have no power to show for it.
Eric: Injuries are an obvious excuse, but for everyone consistently sucking farts through garden hoses?
John: So I do think there’s something they’ve been failing on and it’s why I felt going away from their more power focused philosophy of the 2021-2024 era was flawed given their park. But, yes I think you can lay that at Dipoto and the FO’s feet ultimately for leaning into it by their hiring.
Evan: Respectfully, I think the injury argument has been nonsense for a while.
ZAM: The mariners have not had bad injury luck this season.
Evan: We’re missing two important guys, one in the bullpen and another who was supposed to be injured all year anyways. That’s not abnormal 110 games in.
John: It genuinely feels watching this team like they have softer bats than other teams. (you’ve heard of juiced balls, how ‘bout squishy bats?!)
Isabelle Minasian: Ryan or someone else, has their defensive positioning changed at all this season? The flip side of none of their contact going for hits has been that it feels like more bloops are getting through against them. (No one has answered this yet, discuss in comments!)
(At this point, we all got derailed by the actual baseball game, but Ryan got back into it an hour later)
Ryan: I guess my thing is, what would have changed since last year when they had the second best offense in the majors? Like the offense being down isn’t a huge concern for me. It’s the whole snatching up one dimensional players who limit the ceiling of the team and then when they struggle on that dimension provide nothing else. The defense being awful, the B side of the bullpen being bad again, and the vs LHP lineup being awful are really my concern, and that’s something they’ve never really addressed? I guess the question is always “what should they have done differently?” and I don’t know. But if actions have consequences, why do those consequences apply to assistant hitting coaches and not Edgar (gasp!) or Perry Hill (you hold your tongue, sir!) or Dipoto (/awkward silence). I think if there’s going to be change, I’d like to see a full scale clean house type thing. but i still expect them to win the West so all may be forgiven soon and we can do this whole thing again next year.
John: I’d agree it’s not exactly fair to pin things on the Assistant Hitting Coaches. I felt we expected a bad defense and we’ve gotten it, and that it was contingent on an offense that would make it inconsequential as they did last year. Last year the B side of the bullpen was bad, but to me that stemmed from throwing over 100 more innings than the year before due to all the SP injuries, and the most they’d thrown since 2021 by a considerable margin. I’ll grant they should’ve shored up more, and I said the same headed into this year. To me, we’ve heard and seen some positives from the hitting approaches this year: Randy has specifically said his work with Edgar has improved his plan with two-strikes especially. Cole Young has said similar things. The approaches from Naylor and Cal by contrast have been dogwater. I actually mostly like what Julio’s been doing, though his power is inconsistent. Canzone has certainly improved/maintained last year’s improvements. I don’t know. I do think if you could actually get Dipoto to be open on the subject I wonder if they’re pissed they missed or overlooked Donovan having a multi-year serious lower body issue.
(Around this time, John astutely pointed out “‘We didn’t know what ACLs were’ is not to be overlooked as a Buhner all-timer” on the broadcast.)
And that’s about where the discussion ended as we all went about our day, befuddled as these fellows were about the Mariners win on Sunday and what it could mean for the rest of the season.
Did we miss your favorite target of blame or theory for the failures thus far by the 2026 Mariners? Let’s hear about it in the comments!