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The Boston Red Sox are priced as a massive -209 moneyline favorite for tonight's matchup with the San Francisco Giants at Fenway Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. 

The run line is what stands out to me in my Giants vs. Red Sox predictions, as I expect Boston's red-hot offense to keep thriving. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 22. 

Who will win Giants vs Red Sox today: Red Sox -1.5 (+105)

The Boston Red Sox send Patrick Sandoval to the mound, and while he has not been great, he may not need to be if the offense keeps raking.

The underlying numbers suggest the left-hander is close to finding his best though, with a 2.88 FIP across his last two outings and zero homers allowed.

The San Francisco Giants have an 88 wRC+ over the last week. Blade Tidwell counters after allowing seven earned runs in his previous two appearances with a 5.14 xERA.

Tidwell has also surrendered 5.40 BB/9, dangerous against a Red Sox lineup carrying a 150 wRC+ and .230 ISO over its last six games.

Boston has the clear edge. Play to -110.

COVERS INTEL: The Giants struggle immensely against left-handers, posting an 83 wRC+ this season. Against righties, that number sits at 102. 

Giants vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-126)

The total sits at a modest 7.5, and I’m targeting the Over, mainly because of the Boston offense angle.

Both bullpens are in good form. San Francisco’s relief corps owns a 2.71 FIP over the last week with limited home run damage. The Red Sox pen, meanwhile, has a 3.01 FIP over its last 25 1/3 frames.

That being said, Boston could easily score three or four runs off Tidwell alone, and that does not require the Giants to do much damage. Sandoval is also by no means untouchable, and the Red Sox bullpen has allowed a 43.3% hard-hit rate, so there is still some vulnerability.

Play to -140.

Giants vs Red Sox home run prediction: Willson Contreras (+414)

Willson Contreras has certainly benefited from Fenway’s left-field setup. He owns a .288 ISO at home, has gone deep 16 times in Boston, and has 26 homers overall. Contreras has also left the yard twice in his last five contests while posting a .444 ISO during that span.

What stands out here is his 50% fly-ball rate over the last week. Tidwell has a 39.2% fly-ball rate this season, and at Fenway, Contreras’ lifted contact has a chance to do damage toward the Green Monster.

He also owns a 41.7% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate over the last seven days.

Play to +400.

Giants vs Red Sox weather

Weather at Fenway Park looks cool and damp tonight, with temperatures sitting around 66–67°F throughout the game. Skies turn overcast after first pitch, winds ease from about 9 mph to 5 mph, and rain chances stay modest around 12–21%. Conditions look mostly playable with limited scoring impact.

Giants vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Giants +188 | Red Sox -209
• Run line: Giants +1.5 (-121) | Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-126) | Under 7.5 (+109)

Giants vs Red Sox trend

The Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+17.95 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Giants vs Red Sox and game info

Giants vs Red Sox latest injuries

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Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (66-57) won 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Blanco started for Sugar Land and went 5 innings allowing 2 runs while striking out 5. The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Meyers RBI single. In the 6th, Salazar connected on a 2 run home run to give Sugar Land the lead. VanWey allowed a run in the 8th inning as the Comets tied it. The game went to extra innings and in the 10th, Sugar Land walked it off on a Brooks RBI single.

Note: Salazar has a .835 OPS in Triple-A.

• Jake Meyers, CF: 1-for-5, R, RBI
• Pascanel Ferreras, SS: 1-for-5, 2B
• Trenton Brooks, 1B: 2-for-5, RBI
• Collin Price, C: 0-for-2, 2 R, 2 BB, SB
• Cesar Salazar, DH: 1-for-3, R, HR, 2 RBI
• Braden Shewmake, 3B: 1-for-2, 2 BB

• Ronel Blanco, RHP: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Ryan Weiss, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Christian Roa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Miguel Ullola, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K (WIN)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (55-63) lost 4-2 (BOX SCORE)

Tredwell started for the Hooks but struggled walking 5 and allowing 2 runs in the first inning. The Hooks picked up 2 runs in the 2nd inning on a Schiavone solo home run and Call RBI single. The pen allowed a couple of runs late and the offense was unable to score again as the Hooks fell 4-2.

Note: Schiavone has 25 home runs this season.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 0-for-2, 2 BB
• Will Bush, 1B: 0-for-2, 2 BB
• Jason Schiavone, C: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Tyler Whitaker, RF: 0-for-3, R, SB
• Chase Call, LF: 1-for-2, RBI, BB

• Alonzo Tredwell, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 5 BB, 0 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Ramsey David, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Andrew Marrero, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (41-75) lost 16-12 (BOX SCORE)

Oakes started for Asheville but struggled allowing 8 runs on 12 hits over 3.2 innings. The offense got on the board in the first inning on a Neyens solo home run. The offense got 3 runs in the third on a Powell 2 run single and a run on a wild pitch. In the 6th, Newman added an RBI double. The pen struggled allowing another 8 runs as the Cyclones extended their lead. The offense got 2 in the 7th on a Gomez RBI double and Garcia groundout and 2 in the 8th on a Powell 2 run home run. In the 9th, Asheville scored 3 runs on a Vasquez RBI single and 2 runs on wild pitches but the comeback fell short as Asheville lost 16-12.

Note: Newman is hitting .487 in High-A.

• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-3, 3 R, HR, RBI, 3 BB
• Caden Powell, DH: 2-for-5, R, HR, 4 RBI
• Anthony Huezo, CF: 1-for-4, R, BB
• Kenni Gomez, RF: 2-for-5, 2 R, 2B, RBI, SB
• John Garcia, 1B: 1-for-4, R, RBI, BB
• Yosweld Vasquez, 3B: 3-for-4, 2 R, RBI, BB
• DJ Newman, LF: 4-for-5, R, 3 2B, RBI, SB

• Kellan Oakes, RHP: 3.2 IP, 12 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• Colby Langford, LHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (62-53) won 12-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the third inning scoring a run on a Ramirez bases loaded walk. The offense got 2 runs in the 4th inning on a Flores solo home run and Luciano RBI single. In the 5th inning, Ramirez added a 2 run single. The offense continued to score adding 3 runs in the 6th inning on a Piasecki RBI single and Flores 2 run double. Beck started for the Woodpeckers and pitched well striking out 8 over 6 innings allowing just 2 hits. The offense got some insurance in the 8th scoring 3 runs on a Piasecki RBI double and Soto 2 run single. Nowak added another run in the 9th inning on an RBI single. The game was called in the bottom of the 9th due to rain as the Woodpeckers won 12-3.

Note: Beck has 94 K over 80.2 innings this season.

• Logan Hughes, 1B: 1-for-5, R, 2B, BB
• Waner Luciano, DH: 1-for-6, RBI
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 0-for-2, BB, SB (left due to HBP)
• Owen Nowak, LF: 2-for-4, 2 R, RBI, 2 BB
• Juan Sierra, RF: 2-for-5, 2 R, BB
• Aaron Piasecki, 2B: 4-for-5, 3 R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB
• Arturo Flores, C: 2-for-3, 2 R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB
• Petey Soto, 3B: 3-for-4, R, 2 RBI, BB, SB
• German Ramirez, SS: 1-for-4, 3 RBI, BB

• Jagger Beck, RHP: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K (WIN)
• John Carver, RHP: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Jackson Nezuh – 7:05 CT

CC: Andrew Taylor – 6:35 CT

AV: Parker Smith – 5:05 CT

FV: TBD – 6:05 CT

Not a whole lot is going right for the Nats right now. Between injuries and trades, the once fearsome offense is a shell of itself. However, one player who is still producing is catcher Keibert Ruiz. Plenty of players have not been stepping up, but you can’t lay that accusation on Ruiz, who homered last night.

In a season full of surprise contributors, Ruiz might be the most surprising of them all. His 8-year $50 million contract looked like a complete anchor heading into the season. According to fWAR, he had been a below replacement level player each of the last three seasons. In 2023, that was due to his abysmal defense, but in the past two seasons, the bat fell off a cliff as well.

It felt like 2025 was rock bottom for the Nats catcher. He posted -1 WAR and had concussion issues which put his future in question. With the trade for Harry Ford in the offseason, it felt like his time in DC was coming to a merciful end. However, the 28 year old catcher has completely flipped the switch this season on both sides of the ball.

Honestly, the biggest surprise for me has been his defensive improvements. With the help of new catching coach Bobby Wilson, Ruiz has turned into a slightly above average defensive catcher. That may not sound like anything crazy, but given where he was that is a radical turnaround. From 2023 to 2025, he was the worst defensive catcher in baseball.

The framing was poor, his blocking was a disaster and he was not great at controlling the running game. He still has some issues with the running game, but he has taken massive strides in the other two areas. Ruiz has gone from -6 blocking runs last year to a mediocre but acceptable -1 this season. The framing has been the biggest area of improvement though, going from -9 runs last year to +1 this year.

One thing that helps his framing value even more is the fact he has gotten a lot better at ABS challenges. He struggled with the new system early in the season, but he has really picked it up. Ruiz has the 7th most challenge wins in all of baseball and his win percentage is a slightly above average 60%. 

Ruiz has also made substantial offensive improvements, which have made him a rock solid catcher. On the season, he has a 107 wRC+, a career high outside of 8 at bats in 2020. He has really leaned into pulling the ball in the air, which leads to his outslugging his pedestrian exit velocities. Ruiz is making contact like always, but he is elevating the ball more often which is leading to more hits.

His plate discipline remains questionable, but even that has come along slightly in the second half. Since the All-Star Break, Ruiz has more walks than strikeouts. His 7 walks in the second half is the same as he had in all of the first half. 

There is actually an interesting reason for this. Ruiz is still chasing a lot, but he has found a way to be more selective in 3 ball counts. He may not get there often, but when he does, the Nats catcher is finding a way to turn those into walks. 

In 2026, Keibert Ruiz has been a solid starting catcher. Given where he was last year, this is a minor miracle. He is hitting .279 with a .761 OPS and solid defense. When the Nats acquired Ruiz, that was about what we expected from him. It has taken a long time to get there, but it seems like we have finally arrived. 

Ruiz has been outperforming his xwOBA pretty substantially all season, so it is worth looking out for some offensive regression. However, there is some reason to believe he can overperform at least slightly moving forward. His high contact, pull heavy approach tends to lead to more hits than expected. If he can continue pulling the ball in the air over 30% of the time, he should be in decent shape.

For the season, Keibert Ruiz has 1.5 WAR according to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. That is not star level production by any means, but if he can perform like that for the rest of his contract, that 8-year $50 million deal won’t look so bad after all. There are not a lot of positives for the Nats right now, but Keibert Ruiz is one of them and his turnaround has been so much fun to watch.

We asked the question about whether or not you would give Bryson Stott an extension and boy howdy are the results one sided.

Nine out of ten people thought that there should be talks on the horizon with Stott, which is somewhat of a shocking number. There have been a lot of things written about Stott lately with his play having been picked up quite a bit since the All-Star break, putting him among the league leaders in a lot of offensive categories in that time period. His defense has also been a talking point thanks to an early smooth transition to third base in the wake of the Luis Arraez trade. Yet seeing how many people would want an extension is surprising.

But maybe it shouldn’t be.

I’ll have more on this later on next week, but there are a lot of reasons why an extension for Stott makes sense, but the counterarguments are also pretty convincing.

This post brought to you by FanDuel.

Diamondbacks News

Snakes Tune Out Distractions, Dominate Reds
Eduardo Rodriguez tossed 5.2 shutout innings while the Arizona offense ponded out 15 total hits as the Diamondbacks earned a dominant win over Cincinnati.

Ketel Marte at Talking Stick Casino While Diamondbacks Hosted Reds
Marte spent Friday at Salt River Fields as part of his stint on the 10-day IL. Afterward, the star second baseman apparently decided to avail himself of the casino while he was there. During his four hours at the casino, the Diamondbacks hosted and trounced the Cincinnati Reds.

How Marte’s Absence is Impacting Clubhouse
There is no denying that the current Ketel Marte saga is having a distracting influence on the clubhouse.

Lovullo Felt Betrayed by Marte Disappearance
Pretty sure the fandom did too.

Diamondbacks Injury Return Tracker
Reinforcements are still a ways off.

Other Baseball News

Dodgers’ President Quashes Rumblings About Sale of Dodgers
Despite Mark Walter’s legal and financial hurdles, the Dodgers are not for sale, something that was being bandied about once Walter sold his share in the Los Angeles Lakers.

MLB Players’ Best Advice for Little Leaguers
There are some masterful nuggets in here such as, “Have fun,” and “Don’t dig holes in the outfield.”

Bryce Harper’s Defense is Distracting from His Great Offense
Does the Philly front office even know how to spell the word defense?

Somebody didn’t read the scouting report on Ronald Acuña Jr. and his bazooka.

After a bit of a slow start with his new organization, Jefferson Rojas has quickly been showing why he’s the most highly-regarded prospect the Mets acquired at the MLB trade deadline. 

Rojas has been swinging an extremely hot bat of late with Binghamton, and that continued again on Friday night. 

The youngster struck out his first time up but was able to get the Rumble Ponies on the board in his next AB, clobbering a pitch almost at his shoulders for a monstrous two-run homer. 

He did even more damage in the very next inning, driving in his third run of the night with an RBI single the other way in the bottom of the fourth. 

Rojas was retired each of his next two times up, but he left rehabbing Mets slugger Mark Vientos impressed with his strong 2-for-5 showing at the plate. 

“He’s for real,” Vientos said. “He’s a really good baseball player -- that home run and that single to the opposite-way, you could just see the talent in him, for sure.”

Vientos will be around Rojas and the Ponies for a few more days as he continues his rehab. 

As for the 21-year-old infielder, he's now up to three homers, four doubles, 17 RBI, and a .872 OPS over his first 14 games since joining Binghamton. 

If he’s able to keep this up, Rojas just might take that next step to Triple-A Syracuse, with his sights set on making his mark with Vientos and the big-league club at some point next season.

It is a busy day here at Casa Dakers, my wife’s birthday. We are having friends over and someone is expected to barbecue steaks. I don’t think I’ve ever barbecued 20ish steaks all at one time. They will be barbecued medium rare (likely closer to rare) and if anyone wants their steak well done:

It is really just a busy weekend, but we will get through and get back to regular programming very soon.

The best news coming out of yesterday was that Buck Martinez is cancer free. He’s been through a lot, so it is great to hear.

Yesterday there were a couple of roster moves, that you likely already know about:

• Brendan Cellucci was optioned to Buffalo.
• Josh Smith went on the IL with left hamstring inflammation (with all the players going down in Tampa, we are lucky Smith is the only one going on the IL
• Spencer Arrighetti came off the IL, and pitched some yesterday.
• Davis Schneider is back.

I’m running around until game time, or likely slightly after game time, so use this as an open thread until the game starts (our game threads are pretty much open threads most of the time.

Vlad is back on the roster and in the lineup. Davis Schneider goes back to Buffalo.

Meet the Mets

The Mets got out to a 4-0 lead in last night’s series opener against the White Sox in Chicago. Alas, they could not hold the lead, as Sean Manaea surrendered back-t0-back-to-back homers to tie the game in the sixth inning, and Jefry Yan subsequently gave up a two-run walk-off homer to Jake Rogers. The Mets thus fell to the White Sox 6-4.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, NY Post, Daily News, MLB.com

FanGraphs examined the Mets’ chances of successfully retooling for the 2027 season.

Luis Robert Jr. made his return to his former home in Chicago last night.

The Mets are still expressing confidence in Jonah Tong despite his disappointing 2026 campaign.

Austin Warren spoke about his fear that his previous injury would require Tommy John surgery.

Carson Benge and Nolan McLean are both in the mix for NL Rookie of the Year, though both are likely behind JJ Wetherholt.

Around the National League East

The Braves, like many teams before them, had no answer for Jacob Misiorowski, and Atlanta fell to the Brewers 2-1.

The Phillies had themselves an extra-inning affair against the Cardinals and won on a two-run walk-off triple from Alec Bohm in the tenth inning.

The Marlins were held scoreless for the first seven innings against the Nationals, but they tied it up in the eighth and then got a walk-off single from Javier Sanoja in the ninth to defeat Washington 3-2.

Trade deadline acquisition Will Dion has been a revelation since joining the Nationals.

Around Major League Baseball

With the Little League World Series underway, a number of big leaguers have offered their advice to young players.

Despite online speculation, the Dodgers are not for sale.

Andy Pages will miss several weeks with a fractured hand, though the Dodgers believe he will be back before the end of the season.

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo spoke some more about the bizarre Ketel Marte situation.

Max Fried will soon throw off the mound as he seeks to return from the injured list.

Spencer Steer does not expect to return from his wrist injury for the Reds this year.

Several players around the league have turned their seasons around after bad starts.

MLB.com listed one prospect who could be called up before the end of the season by each MLB team.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Vasilis Drimalitis previewed the weekend series in the south side of Chicago.

This Date in Mets History

Carlos Delgado hit the 400th home run of his career on this date in 2006.

It’s been a long road for Marco Luciano.

The No. 2 overall prospect in the 2018 international class, Luciano was signed by the Giants out of the Dominican Republic for $2.6 million. San Francisco valued the 16-year-old for his 6-foot-3 frame, pop, and athleticism, projecting him as a middle-of-the-order bat with the potential to develop into a sturdy defender at a premium position. After Luciano slashed .302/.417/.564 across 47 games in his first action as a pro, the wider baseball world agreed. He entered Baseball America’s prospect rankings at number 19 in 2020, marking a player with both high upside and — ostensibly — a projectible floor.

Still just 18 in 2020, it would be a few years before the uber-talent made his way to the bigs. He lost some steam as he went but was still a consensus top-50 prospect by the time he debuted with sky-high expectations in 2023.

That’s when the narrative flipped. Luciano hit just .217 with no home runs in 126 plate appearance between 2023-24, failing to translate his power and plate discipline at the MLB level. And he was done no favors by his glove, grading out well below average on defense while splitting time between shortstop and second base.

And so it was that he ended up on waivers after the 2025 season. He was claimed by the Pirates, putting in motion a month-plus of indignity that would have been unthinkable for the former top prospect just a couple of years prior. Pittsburgh cut him after a month to clear up a roster spot. The Orioles picked Luciano up, only to DFA him again a couple of weeks later.

That’s when the Yankees swooped in, adding him off waivers. They DFA’d him themselves a week later, but when none of the other 29 MLB teams had a 40-man spot for Luciano, he was sent down to Double-A Somerset to rebuild his swing. While there was a modicum of buzz around the move, largely due to his former prospect pedigree, Luciano’s signing was more of a move around the margins than a long-term play.

Then something surprising happened. In his first 28 games of the seasons, Luciano hit like a man reborn, batting .327 with 10 homers. It was the kind of dominance he hadn’t demonstrated since Rookie ball seven years earlier. He was quickly promoted to Triple-A where he’s slashed a still-excellent .280/.374/.470 the rest of the way. He’s also passed the eye test as a viable defender at second base after moving to the position full-time.

Is this a case of a Quadruple-A player having a couple of good months? Or is something more at play here? As Eli Ben-Porat over at Baseball America outlined in an excellent primer on Monday, there are some tangible changes that signal the latter. While Luciano never ceased to show prodigious power, he was being too passive at the plate, resulting in poor timing and a lot of swing and miss. By hunting fastballs and not being afraid to swing at borderline pitches, he’s making much more hard contact, leading to a more balanced offensive profile.

The results speak for themselves. Among the 119 second basemen who’ve come to the plate at least 350 times across all levels of the minors, Luciano’s 141 wRC+ leads the pack. In his article, Ben-Porat teases that Luciano could be the Yankees’ second baseman of the future. With Luciano still a couple of weeks from his 25th birthday and Jazz Chisholm Jr. a free agent after the season, it’s a distinct possibility he’ll get an opportunity next spring to earn a job.

But what about this year? Chisholm has been a massive disappointment at the plate but, barring an injury, it’s hard to see him getting displaced at this stage of the season. If the Yankees did need a next man up at the keystone, José Caballero, Max Schuemann, and Amed Rosario are already on the active roster while Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera are on the 40-man down at Triple-A. The fact that the Yankees would need to free up a 40-man spot for Luciano makes his promotion unlikely. Still, his is a name to tuck away in the back of your mind. He’s been the best-hitting second baseman in the Yankees’ system this year. Whether this season or next, it behooves the Yankees to give him a look at the big-league level.

The Dodgers lost their lone productive outfielder for nearly the rest of the regular season, as Andy Pages broke his left hand after getting hit by a pitch during Friday’s win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pages was hit by a 100.2-mph fastball from Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler in the third inning on Friday.

Pages remained in the game for one more inning on defense, but was replaced in center field by Kiké Hernández in the top of the fifth inning.

“Unfortunately it came back as a fracture, so he’ll be out for a while,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters on Friday night. “It’s not season-ending, because obviously things like that is four to five weeks I would expect him back, knowing him, on the earlier side. … There’s still time in the season for him to be back.”

Pages started the All-Star Game in his third major league season and has been one of the Dodgers’ best players this season, hitting .272/.338/.458 with 21 home runs and a 119 wRC+. Pages also has 18 defensive runs saved and nine outs above average in center field, and leads all major leaguers with 13 outfield assists.

Not that there’s any good time to suffer an injury, but Pages was basically the only Dodgers outfielder producing anything this season. Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernández have been barely above replacement level, combining below average offense with bad defense in the corners.

Roberts said Friday night the Dodgers will prioritize defense in replacing Pages, who has started 125 of 129 games in center field this season. Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernández have center field experience, but also Edman has been playing second base regularly. Among the options on the 40-man roster, Alek Thomas is the only other true center fielder.

“You’ve got to be mindful of the defense,” Roberts said. “The main thing is locking down center field.”

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The Seattle Mariners are -120 favorites with top pitching prospect Kade Anderson slated to make his MLB debut.

Given the discrepancy between how the two teams have hit lefties, my Cubs vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks believe the value lies with Chicago.

Who will win Cubs vs Mariners today: Cubs moneyline (+100)

David Peterson is quietly pitching well. He's worked 23 1/3 innings the past month, posting a 2.70 ERA with solid indicators (3.48 xFIP, 3.56 FIP). That is miles ahead of where he’s been.

He’s in a good spot to keep building vs. the Seattle Mariners, who've hit .214 with a .288 wOBA against lefties over the last month.

The Chicago Cubslead the majors in OPS, ISO, and slot second in wOBA over the same span. Slowing them down will be a tall order for Kade Anderson in his debut.

Back Chicago to -115.

COVERS INTEL: The Cubs lead the league in OBP and OPS against left-handed pitching, leading to a strong 24-13 record when facing southpaw starters.

Cubs vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-110)

Peterson’s ERA sits at 5.26 this season but drops to 4.00 in "pitcher-friendly" conditions, and that’ll be the case in Seattle tonight.

Factor in that he’s in the best form of the season, and taking on a weak offense, and it’s a good spot for him to limit runs.

It’ll be tough to fully neutralize a strong Cubs offense, but Anderson should be able to prevent a ceiling performance. Their Achilles heel the last 30 days is a 25.3 K%, and Anderson possesses high-end strikeout upside.

I envision a 4-2 type of game, and see value in the Under to -120.

Cubs vs Mariners home run prediction: Seiya Suzuki (+365)

Seiya Suzuki possesses real pop against southpaws. He ranks in the 89th percentile in xSLG, the 91st percentile in ISO, and the 93rd in xwOBA.

He is consistently making powerful contact, and his ability to draw walks at a high rate — and play with real discipline — allows him to hang in at-bats and wait for the right opportunity to strike.

His OPS vs. lefties sits at 1.100 since July 1, putting him in the same range as NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Play to +350.

Cubs vs Mariners weather

Temperatures in the mid 70s are expected with slight winds blowing out. Neutral impact on the offenses.

Cubs vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Cubs +100 | Mariners -120
• Run line: Cubs +1.5 (-200) | Mariners -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)

Cubs vs Mariners trend

Chicago has hit the moneyline in 21 of the last 30 away games (+11.55 units, 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mariners.

How to watch Cubs vs Mariners and game info

Cubs vs Mariners latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

‘Twas a good night to make sure that their top prospect was on the mound and dominating as the rest of the system didn’t do a whole lot to put wins on the board.

Buffalo 8, Lehigh Valley 0

Yeah, this one had about zero action in it. The IronPigs managed to accumulate only three hits on the day while the Bisons pitching staff shut them down almost completely. Brian Keys hit two home runs for the opposition, both of them off of Brian Keller. Keller only went 4 1/3 innings, giving up five runs in the process. Truly, a blah kind of night.

Reading 5, Portland 2

Another Gage Wood night for Reading, the team’s top prospect showed out once again, throwing five innings in which he allowed a single unearned run. He struck out five and walked two, getting to 86 pitches in the process. Might the leash be getting a little longer in anticipation for something larger in September? At the plate, Bryan Rincon hit his 19th home run of the year to lead off the game for the Fightin’ Phils. Raider Tello went two for four with a double and an RBI to help lead the bats.

Hudson Valley 5, Jersey Shore 1
Hudson Valley 2, Jersey Shore 0

A doubleheader defeat does damage during Friday’s night. The BlueClaws offense simply could not get going at all. In Game 1, they did get two triples on the night from Juan Villavicencio and Brady Day, but only one of those could push themselves across the plate. In Game 2, the team itself only had two hits, seemingly gassed from having to play a game already on the day. A shame, since the pitching was actually pretty good. Ryan Dromboski gave up only two unearned runs (five overall) in the first game while Tanner Gresham gave up only two runs total over four innings in the nightcap.

Dunedin 10, Clearwater 2

Yikes. Sean Youngerman and Manuel Colon allowed all ten runs within six innings of work on the night, putting the game out of reach for the Threshers and their offense on the night. Tyler Spangler, the team’s first round pick this year, got another start for them, this time at DH, and went 0 for 2 with two walks and a run scored. Cade Bogenpohl had a double and struck out twice as well.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers won a wild one last night, 2-1 over the Angels in extra innings.

Skip Schumaker says doing the little things made a big difference in the walk-off win.

MacKenzie Gore continued his August heater with another fine start in the win.

Evan Grant says the Rangers are in a playoff race whether you like it or not so you might as well enjoy it.

Elsewhere Evan Carter has been playing more against lefties, but not because he’s been hitting them.

Jack Leiter and Josh Jung are still broken, apparently.

Jake Burger is spotlighting his daughter and his foundation again on Player’s Weekend.

And finally the latest guest on Grant’s podcast is none other than Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez, right in time to toast the 1996 Rangers team this afternoon.

That’s all for this morning. Have a great weekend!

Good morning friends and welcome to the weekend!

The M’s got off to a great start to Players Weekend with a 6-5 walk-off win over the Cubs thanks to some late-game heroics from Leo Rivas.

Crucially, today is Kade Anderson Day, with first pitch slated for 4:15pm PT. Are you ready?

In Mariners news…

• John Trupin and Nathan Grimm at Baseball Prospectus gave a quick primer on Anderson in advance of his debut.
• Congratulations Luis!

Around the league…

• The Yankees placed infielder Ryan McMahon on the injured list with a sprained left thumb.
• Dodgers outfielder Andy Pages is expected to miss the next 4-5 weeks with a fractured hand.
• The Yanks have agreed to a minor league deal with former Gonzaga Bulldog Eli Morgan.
• Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo says he feels “betrayed” by the Ketel Marte situation.
• Dodgers president Stan Kasten told reporters on Friday that the team is not being sold, contrary to recent speculation.
• Tigers general manager Jeff Greenberg is reportedly under consideration for the same position with the NHL’s Detroit Red Wings.
• Here’s a quick but effective explainer on the upcoming MLB labor fight from the Tipping Pitches podcast crew.

• Ben Clemens at Fangraphs tried to figure out why inside fastballs are so effective.
• Mario Delgado Genzor at Baseball Prospectus checked in on the AL West pennant race with just around a month left to go in the season.
• Mike Petriello broke down how struggling starter Brayan Bello turned into a dominant reliever seemingly overnight.
• Francys Romero examined what may happen with the 2026-2027 International Signing Period in the event of an MLB lockout.
• The Angels’ firing of Mike Maddux may have worked, with the team’s pitching staff is thriving since his departure. Jeff Fletcher at the Orange County Register has more.

Today we’re here to take a look at the Guardians’ bullpen options, break down how everyone has looked, and see what future roles might be available to these pitchers out of the Guardians’ bullpen. We’re going to start by taking a look at some general numbers for most of the pitchers who have thrown from the bullpen for the Guards in 2026 and are still with the team. For Logan Allen, Connor Brogdon, and Daniel Espino, the numbers are their minor league and major league stats combined, and for every other pitcher it’s just the 2026 MLB numbers. I chose to include MiLB numbers because those three pitchers did not have a substantial amount of MLB innings to look at.

We’re going to look at four primary stats: Whiff%, K%, BB%, and xwOBA. The stats are color coded in such a way that they move closer to white when they’re near league average, and closer to red/green depending on if they’re better or worse than league average. I’m also putting a column at the end to label the potential bullpen roles each pitcher might be most suited to fill. The categories listed are high leverage (HL), fireman (FM), middle relief (MR), long relief (LR), right-handed specialist (RS), left-handed specialist (LS), and closer (C).

A typical 13 man pitching staff is going to have five starters, leaving eight bullpen spots to work with. There’s not one universal formula for a bullpen build, but ideally you want a mix of high leverage arms, matchup options, middle relief, and at least one pitcher capable of covering a few innings in case of an emergency.

First, I think we want to establish the obvious keepers. Cade Smith, Erik Sabrowski, Daniel Espino, and Franco Aleman – from a long term standpoint – shouldn’t be going anywhere. Cade Smith has proven to be a dominant closer, and Sabrowski has been a very valuable high leverage arm vs. LHP. Espino and Aleman have limited numbers to go off of, but they both have high upside and have shown potential as future high leverage arms as well. 

The next tier are guys that look keepable, but maybe should be used in lower leverage roles. This group contains Herrin, Gaddis, Holderman, and Yoho. Herrin has very solid numbers vs. lefties, so I would consider him for very matchup specific moments. The other three are significantly better vs. righties than lefties. I think ideally you’d keep one or two as a righty matchup option for earlier in games, and then aim to keep someone with a bit more balanced splits for the last spot. In our list, Armstrong fits that bill. If my counting is correct, Armstrong technically would be eligible to return from the IL in the last week of the regular season in 2026, but given his age and contract, looking beyond that becomes hazy for considering him. You could look for similar/better options in FA as well to fill that spot for future seasons.

If we’re taking 2 of Gaddis/Holderman/Yoho, that leaves us with 1 more spot to consider. There’s a couple ways to go about this. A safe option is having someone like Allen or Cecconi, who can provide multiple innings in a pinch and possibly even give you a spot start here or there. Another option is going for a more balanced/complete middle relief option or going for another left handed matchup option. This bullpen does not have very many LHPs, and adding another one of those would be a solid way to round it out.

There’s a lot of potential with this bullpen, especially as Aleman and Espino can get more work in. I think if you include them, you have 4 clear keepers and 4 more that have legitimate reasons they can be in an MLB bullpen as long as they’re used appropriately. Some of the others have potential as organizational depth that could be brought up in a pinch. I think for the MLB level, you’d ideally want one more pitcher that can handle lefties, given the splits for Gaddis/Holderman/Yoho are very tilted towards usefulness against righties, but apart from that improvement, there’s a lot of good pieces here for the near future.