But it wasn’t enough to propel Los Angeles to a win, nor did it erase the brutal performance Ohtani produced not just during this NLCS sweep but throughout the postseason.
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani walks to the dugout after striking out during the seventh inning of Game 4 of baseball’s National League Championship Series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026, in Los Angeles. AP Photo/Gregory Bull
“The Brewers were overall strong, and a very good team. And [they] really exposed parts of me as a player, and got to give some credit to that,” Ohtani said in translated English, per SportsNet LA.
Ohtani certainly looked exposed throughout the series, aside from that one swing in the second inning on Thursday night.
Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani addressed the media after being swept by the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLCS. (X/@SportsNetLA).
He had three hits and six strikeouts during the four-game series, producing a .231 batting average and a .795 OPS.
Throughout the postseason, Ohtani produced a .192 average, a .631 OPS, and 10 strikeouts compared to five hits. He also didn’t pitch during the postseason, so he wasn’t able to negate his mediocre hitting with success on the mound.
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani plays during Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Milwaukee Brewers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. CHRIS TORRES/EPA/Shutterstock
Ohtani is the world’s best baseball player. And even the world’s best baseball player is liable to face a slump sometimes.
It just came at the worst possible time for Los Angeles. His ailments likely did not help the situation, either.
But Ohtani’s comment convey that the Brewers managed to make matters even worse.
LOS ANGELES — Jake Bauers went home to Southern California and walked away with an MVP trophy.
Bauers hit a two-run double in the fourth inning of Game 4 to begin Milwaukee’s comeback, and the Brewers rallied for a 6-4 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers that completed a four-game sweep in the National League Championship Series.
The 31-year-old first baseman also drew a walk that forced home the tying run in the fifth to help Milwaukee advance to the World Series for the first time in 44 years.
“There was never a doubt,” Bauers said. “There was never a doubt in that dugout what was going to happen tonight. We knew we were going to win that game.”
Bauers was selected the NLCS MVP after going 4 for 14 (.286) with a home run and six RBIs in the series. He worked three walks and finished with a .983 OPS.
Bauers was born in Newport Beach and went to Marina High School in Huntington Beach about 40 miles south of Dodger Stadium.
If performing at his best in front of family and friends was rewarding, seeing Los Angeles in the playoffs for the second consecutive season heightened his senses. Bauers learned something from how the Dodgers reacted when they wiped out Milwaukee in the 2025 NLCS on the way to their second straight World Series title.
“Watching the way they carried themselves on the field after sweeping us last year was a little bit eye-opening,” Bauers said. “We won the (NLDS) against the Cubs, and I think we kind of celebrated like that was something.
“Those guys swept us, they sent us home, and you would have thought it was a handshake line at a spring training game. That’s something that I carried with me. That’s something that I remembered. Yeah, it was a little bit of motivation to just say, we’ve got to keep going until there’s not another game left to play.”
It’s not just in the playoffs that Bauers has shined. Earning consistent playing time from Brewers manager Pat Murphy in his seventh major league season, Bauers set career highs across the board with a .266 batting average, .874 OPS, 26 home runs and 86 RBIs.
The left-handed-hitting Bauers also made his mark in Games 2 and 3 of the NLCS with long plate appearances. His 12-pitch walk against Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2 came just before a two-run single by Christian Yelich that gave Milwaukee the lead in a back-and-forth 7-4 win.
Bauers also hit a go-ahead homer off two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to end an 11-pitch at-bat in a 6-2 victory in Game 3 at Los Angeles.
“Just trying to be ready for the moment, man,” Bauers said. “Murph has been talking about it all year. You have to meet the game halfway and be ready, and whatever happens after that is whatever happens.”
SEATTLE, WA - JUNE 02: Luke Raley #20 of the Seattle Mariners takes batting practice prior to the game between the New York Mets and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday, June 2, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Eric Hiller/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Mariners have some decisions to make.
MLB Trade Rumors released its arbitration projections earlier this month. The Mariners have 15 players eligible for arbitration. If the Mariners offered contracts to each arbitration-eligible player, they would add an estimated $58.3 million to their payroll in 2027. They could also release some of these players and avoid paying their salary, freeing up room in the budget to pursue other players in trades or free agency. That dynamic makes arbitration a notable task each offseason, as it can provide a glimpse into how the Mariners view their players and roster.
A player begins their career on a rookie contract that pays the league minimum, roughly $780,000 per year. They become eligible for arbitration once they reach three years of service time. They maintain that eligibility until reaching free agency after six years of service time. (There are, of course, exceptions.) The structure gives established players a chance to earn more money for good performance — Tarik Skubal earned a record $32 million in arbitration in 2026 — and it allows teams to maintain significant control over both their player and their budget.
Arbitration tends to be the best bang for a team’s buck, as John Stanton alluded to in a recent interview with the Seattle Times. A player has to literally earn a higher wage in the preceding season, reducing risk to teams in comparison to free agency, where contracts are guaranteed. Arbitration-eligible players also don’t have the ability to negotiate their wage on the open market, effectively capping their earning potential. Teams can also release these players without recourse, or trade these players to earn value back. That’s why some teams, like the Rays and Brewers, tend to operate with a ruthless, actuarial approach to their arbitration-eligible players, hoping to exploit inefficiencies in the market and accumulate value at the margins. Basically, arbitration is one of the key drivers in the baseball economy, ensuring low-budget teams can compete and turn a profit while doing so.
Teams have until some time in January to reach an agreement with their arbitration-eligible players. If they don’t, both sides go to, you know, arbitration, where a bunch of lawyers fist fight over that players value until another lawyer decides their salary. How that process will work this year is unclear with the Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire in December. Who knows, maybe everyone will get paid in v-bucks come March.
This is as good a time as any to check in on the Mariners payroll. At the moment, it’s about $60 million in guaranteed contracts, according to Darren Gossler’s payroll spreadsheet. If they were to give the estimated contact to each of their arbitration eligible players, that would put their payroll at about $120 million for 2027. That’s roughly where it’s been at the beginning of the last few offseasons.
The $120M figure doesn’t include team options for Andrés Muñoz or Victor Robles. Assuming they opt for the former and opt against the latter, that brings their payroll closer to $130M. We can see last year, they had a payroll of about $173 million on Opening Day (though $9 million of that was a signing bonus for Colt Emerson). That’s to say, the Mariners, barring massive upheaval in the final CBA, will likely start the season with a payroll between $150 million and $170 million, giving them something close to $20-40 million to spend this offseason.
That’s… not a lot, given how many holes existed on this roster at the end of last year. They need to find a third baseman and an outfielder and some help in the bullpen. It’s possible they will cut salary by releasing arbitration-eligible players, but as I discuss below, there aren’t a lot of obvious choices.
The Locks
Logan Gilbert (5.144): $15.4MM George Kirby (4.151): $9.8MM Bryan Woo (3.121): $5.2MM Dominic Canzone (3.014): $3MM
The Mariners aren’t going to cut any of these players. Sure, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby struggled in 2026, but as far as contracts go, these are quite friendly for starting pitchers with tip-top potential. It’s more likely either or both exceed their “value” on the $/WAR scale by two or three times than fall short.
Also, note how little Bryan Woo is expected to make in 2027. He was the eighth best pitcher in the majors by fWAR the last two seasons. Jacob deGrom was ninth, and is set to make $37 million next year (about seven times more than Woo).
The Former Locks
Bryce Miller (3.153): $3.9MM (Mariners hold a $6.075MM option with $15K buyout) Gabe Speier (5.000): $3.3MM Matt Brash (4.121): $1.8MM
There was a time when it would have been unconscionable for the Mariners to willingly let these players go. Perhaps that time is still now… yeah, it’s probably still now. The Mariners simply don’t have enough pitching to give up on any talented but flawed arms, is probably the correct framing for this group.
Gabe Speier regressed in every way in 2026, and he’s set to make kind of a lot for a reliever in a Low Budget Org — if they’re going to cut one of these three, I think it’s Speier. But he got a lot better in the second half, and it’s probably worth seeing what’s left in the tank in his age-32 season. Matt Brash would normally be an obvious choice to cut, given he’s only thrown 64 innings the last three seasons, but he’s been dominant during his rare, healthy stretches.
Had Bryce Miller pitched better in 2026, I would have bothered to figure out how his contract works. But I don’t care about to think any more about Miller at the moment. I assume the Mariners will hold on to him, and I assume they’ll try to pay him as little as possible.
Too New To Cut
Brendan Donovan (5.000): $6.1MM Jose A. Ferrer (3.094): $1.6MM
Neither of these players had good years, but cutting them now would be admitting defeat, and there is no greater sin.
The Meat
Luke Raley (4.106): $3.1MM Eduard Bazardo (3.118): $1.5MM Michael Rucker (3.069): $800K Cooper Criswell (2.143): $900K Carlos Vargas (2.140): $800K
These are the fellas the team is discussing as you are reading this.
Luke Raley I think is the most interesting name on the entire list. He’s a 32-year-old corner outfielder — one of the worst defenders in the league — who’s spent more time on the injured list the last two years than on the field. He’s redundant on the roster, and has posted a total of 0.5 fWAR since 2025. Generally, I would say this seems like an obvious cut, and that’s probably still the case. But Raley happened to post a 215 wRC+ in May, as one of the 10 best months for a Mariner this century. The ceiling for Raley when healthy is very, very, high, and it’s unlikely they can find that ceiling elsewhere on the market. Whether the Mariners think his ceiling is worth the lack of versatility (and availability), well, that’s why Arb Watch is a fun offseason chore.
Then there’s the relievers. I could see the Mariners cutting all four of them. I could see them holding onto all four of them. I really don’t know. Again, I don’t think the org is really in a position to be picky about pitching at this point, and each of these relievers has something to offer.
Eduard Bazardo I think is the easiest cut. He’s set to make the most of the group, and he posted a 6.58 ERA and 7.29 FIP in the second half. The Mariners really wore him down the last two years, and I’m not sure I expect much in his age-32 season. But there’s a reason they called his number so often the last two seasons, and it’s hard to imagine this bullpen without Everyday Eddie.
Michael Rucker might be new Bazardo in that sense. The team seemed to view him as Mr. Whoopsies Somebody Has To Pitch this year, sticking him in the fifth-to-seventh inning cleanup role. Rucker got a bad rap because a lot of runs scored while he was pitching, and some of those runs came at times when fans wanted a different reliever in the game — he was an unwitting political football in The Dan Wilson Conspiracy. But Rucker also posted a 3.90 FIP, 3.91 xERA, and struck out 27% of batters faced. He has a big lively fastball with great shape, and a big sweeping curveball that misses bats. He scores well on the all the Pitching models. And for essentially the league minimum? Yeah, I don’t think the Mariners are going to do much better in the pile.
Cooper Criswell is interesting because he also looks pretty good by FIP and xERA (and even regular ERA). He was a solid low leverage guy, though missed a couple months with a pectoral strain that limited his usefulness. Criswell doesn’t strikeout batters and his stuff isn’t impressive, but he has a funky arm slot and hits his spots and manages contact well enough. Criswell’s greatest asset in the past was his ability cover a swingman role, which the Mariners generally don’t need, so I could see being easier to cut than someone like Rucker, who could conceivably develop into a high-leverage arm. But again, at the league minimum, Criswell seems like a decent option for a team not really in the position to be choosy in the bullpen.
Carlos Vargas… I have no idea. He was one of the worst pitchers in the majors in 2025, largely because he ran a minuscule strikeout rate and a 56% groundball rate in front of an awful infield defense. He then spent most of 2026 on the injured list with a lat strain. His numbers were a little more encouraging after the return, but he’s yet to turn his big-time stuff into whiffs and success. If the Mariners keep him, it’s because the league minimum is a bargain for a reliever with infinite potential. If they cut him, well, it’s because he’s Carlos Vargas.
NEW YORK - CIRCA 1986: Broadcaster and former baseball player Tim McCarver talks on the air prior to the start of a Major League Baseball game circa 1986 at Shea Stadium in the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Born James Timothy McCarver on the banks of the mighty Mississippi River in Memphis, Tennessee, few would have ever dreamt up the life McCarver would go on to live. That life included winning two World Series as a player and calling 23 more as a broadcaster, a record at the time of his retirement. With a career in baseball stretching over four decades, it is only fitting that McCarver eventually found his way into a role with the most successful baseball organization of all time.
James Timothy McCarver Born: October 16, 1941 (Memphis, TN) Died: February 16, 2023 (Memphis, TN) Yankees Tenure: 1999-2001 (broadcaster)
Memphis was home for McCarver, and he attended Christian Brothers High School. While growing up, he played baseball, basketball, and football. McCarver was good enough at football to earn scholarship interest from Tennessee and Notre Dame. However, the 17-year-old turned down college to sign a contract with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1959. The Yankees were also interested in him before the Cardinals were able to ink the deal.
The Cardinals did not handle the young catcher with kid gloves. After the young left-handed hitter posted a .360 average over 275 at-bats in the Midwest League, he was promoted to Triple-A Rochester of the International League. The kid then hit .357 in 70 at-bats. The Cardinals were impressed enough that they made the 17-year-old a September call-up. In a small sample size, he collected four hits in 24 at-bats while being about 11 years younger than the average player in the league.
Knowing that the prospect needed more seasoning, the Cardinals assigned McCarver to their Double-A team in Memphis to start the 1960 season. He batted .347 there and earned another late-season call-up to the big league club. He spent much of 1961 in the minors before another promotion to St. Louis, but 1962 was different. McCarver spent the entire season with the Triple-A Atlanta Crackers, getting one last year of development before sticking with the Cardinals for good.
McCarver was done with the minors after a trade opened up the starting catcher position for him in 1963. In his first full season in the show, McCarver slashed .289/.333/.383 while starting 108 games behind the dish. He followed that up in 1964 with another impressive slash line of .288/.343/.400 as the Cardinals won the National League pennant.
The Fall Classic that year featured the Yankees. McCarver burned New York, hitting .478 with 11 hits in 23 at-bats. He also drove in five runs and scored four more, including a three-run homer in the top of the 10th inning of Game 5 that helped the Cardinals secure a 5-2 victory. St. Louis won the series in seven games, and McCarver stole home in Game 7 to help secure the championship.
That performance kicked off the best run of McCarver’s career. He made his only two All-Star teams during the 1966 and 1967 seasons. The Cardinals won the pennant again in 1967, and though McCarver did not perform as well as he had against the Yankees, he helped his team beat the Red Sox in seven games. St. Louis reached the World Series again in 1968, but this time fell to the Tigers in seven games.
The summer of 1969 marked the end of McCarver’s first run as a Cardinal, as he was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies after the season. This kicked off a two-and-a-half-year run before the Phillies traded McCarver to the Expos midway through the 1972 season. Following that brief stint north of the border, he was traded back to St. Louis for the 1973 season. He appeared in 130 games, with 77 of them at first base instead of behind the plate.
A full-fledged journeyman by this point, McCarver started the 1974 season under the Arch in St. Louis before being purchased by the Red Sox. In 1974 and 1975, McCarver appeared in 23 games for Boston before being released. After his release from Beantown, McCarver signed back with the Phillies, where he would ride out the last six years of his career as a backup catcher and left-handed pinch hitter off the bench.
In 1980, McCarver started a new job in the Phillies’ broadcast booth while still playing for the club. He returned to the field that September to help the team finish out the season. Then, after 21 seasons, McCarver finally hung up his cleats for good. However, the microphone he picked up decided to stick around.
Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, McCarver called games for the Phillies and Mets. During this time, his talent in the booth earned him national broadcasts as well. McCarver called his first World Series in 1985 and went on to set a record for World Series broadcasts by a color analyst. McCarver won three national Emmy Awards for his work as a sportscaster and co-hosted the primetime coverage of the 1992 Winter Olympics alongside Paula Zahn.
McCarver finally got to the Yankees in 1999 as a commentator for the team’s local broadcasts. Just like in his playing days, McCarver got to experience the Yankees winning two rings as the team was on the back end of its late-1990s dynasty. Perhaps his most famous call came when he was in the booth with Bobby Murcer and Suzyn Waldman for David Cone’s improbable perfect game on Yogi Berra Day in 1999.
In what many have called prophecy, he also suggested that bringing the infield in during the 2001 World Series might be the wrong call. We all remember how that went moments later.
After his Yankees stint ended, McCarver moved to San Francisco to keep calling games for the Giants. He remained a full-time national broadcaster, working All-Star Games and World Series alongside Joe Buck until retiring from Fox in 2013. The year before he retired, he was honored by the National Baseball Hall of Fame for his long career in television when he won the 2012 Ford C. Frick Award.
McCarver continued working part-time with the Cardinals, calling around 30 games a year. He stepped away from those broadcasts after the 2019 season, though he did not officially retire until 2022. In case you lost count, McCarver played parts of 21 seasons in the majors and spent more than 30 years in the broadcast booth. He passed away in February 2023.
Happy birthday, Tim!
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 24: Luis Arraez #4 of the Philadelphia Phillies runs to first base during a game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park on September 24, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A few weeks back, I was on vacation in Tokyo. On a bright, sunny day, I wandered through a garden on the terrace of a city government building, gazing out at the city below. As I left the garden, I passed by the office for foreign resident business, where people were lined up in front of a sign labeled “health insurance forms”. For a moment, I thought about how much I wished I had reason to be there, how nice it would be to set up a new life in Tokyo, surrounded by the bullet trains, the charming kissaten coffee shops, the bright lights and billboards.
Then I realized I was fantasizing about filling out health insurance paperwork.
The trade deadline is sort of like that. You get starry-eyed, thinking of the futures that could be, the way that new piece could be the piece, slotting in perfectly. You don’t think as much about the little frustrations, the disappointments, the awkward fits. But then the trades are made, and the new player arrives, and the games are played, and you have no choice but to see the reality of what the new guy brings to the table. Luis Arraez brought a great attitude and an appealingly old-school style to Philadelphia, what he ended up bringing to the Phillies offense wasn’t quite what had been hoped for.
Arraez is not like a box of chocolates: you know what exactly you’re going to get. Exceptional batting average, not a lot of power, very few walks, very few strikeouts. He’s a true unicorn in the baseball world; nobody else is really doing what he does. San Francisco’s season had gone badly awry by the time the deadline arrived, but Arraez had been a bright point: slashing .324/.360/.440, with a wRC+ of 121, stealing ten bases, and providing surprisingly solid defense at the keystone, he lead the Giants with 3.8 fWAR at the halfway point. To the Phillies, dead last in OBP at the deadline, a high-average machine like Arraez promised not only an additional piece, but a piece who could play an entirely different game, offering relief from the rollercoaster that is the three true outcomes: whether the Phillies’ big sluggers were on a hot streak or sliding into a slump, Arraez would reliably be doing his thing. And with just three of the Phillies regulars (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott) serving as above-average bats by wRC+ at the trade deadline, the addition of another bat is just what the doctor ordered.
At first, Arraez’ tenure seemed to look much like what the optimists had imagined: seven hits in his first five games in Phillies red. He posted the second-best batting average on the team during his tenure. But that being said…
What went wrong
.278 isn’t a bad batting average in a vacuum, but it is a bad average for Arraez. With the Giants, he had hit .324. Arraez’ whole game is high-average, low-power; take away some of that average, and his whole approach stops working. Arraez essentially never strikes out, so that downturn in average was driven by a decline in BABIP: .327 with the Giants, .273 with the Phillies. By wRC+ (82) he was a well-below average hitter with the Phillies. With his power remaining scanty and his batting average taking a serious downturn, he had little impact on a Phillies offense that really could have used the boost. How much of that poor performance in Philadelphia was bad BABIP luck, and how much of it was something more? While that question does matter for the decision of whether or not to resign him, it doesn’t matter much for an evaluation of how much he contributed to the 2026 Phillies.
His addition required the Phillies to rearrange their defensive positioning, with Alec Bohm, Bryson Stottt, and Bryce Harper all moving around to less familiar positions (or, in Harper’s case, a familiar position from bygone days). Having struggled mightily with defense prior to the changes, the Phillies couldn’t really afford any wobbling resulting from the position change; the misjudged fly ball that flew over Harper’s head in game two of the Wild Card series was a queasy reminder of the cost that had to be paid to incorporate Arraez into the lineup.
And though it was no fault of his, his injury-induced absence from the playoffs marked a sour end to his season.
Final grade: C
I really wanted Arraez to work out. I’m well aware of the downsides to his no-power approach, that the batting titles paper over the fact that he doesn’t contribute nearly as much to run-scoring as you’d think a batting champion would, that there’s a good reason he’s bounced from team to team. But I loved him for his unusual, old-school approach, even more so given that it was a much-needed relief from all the swing-and-miss we’d seen from the Phillies standbys all season. I loved him even more when I saw his sunny disposition and good cheer. But the fact of the matter is that his 2026 in Philadelphia was not a success: the Phillies traded away prospects and reshuffled their defensive alignment for a hitter who delivered a below-average performance. I still want him to work out. There’s a world in which the Phillies resign him, and in which his batting average progresses to the mean, and he gives the team more than he did in 2026. I hope that’s a world we’ll end up seeing.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 13: Shawn Armstrong #43 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches during Game Two of the American League Championship Series between the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Guardians and Rays will, apparently, play tonight at 8PM ET, and Shawn Armstrong will open.
I would guess it will be Armstrong for an inning, maybe plus a batter or two, then Joey Cantillo. It’s possible Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi will get some middle inning opportunities there. I wonder, too, if Armstrong gets the open today to possibly give him as much time as possible to recover for a possible closing opportunity in game 5, if Cade Smith is unable to go.
No official word from MLB, yet, but I think we are left to assume they will try to play at 8PM tonight. Looks like there will be a weather window.
The Brewers swept the Dodgers to win their first NL Pennant since 1982. If the Guardians were to make the World Series, I would greatly prefer to play the aging Dodgers. I also know many folks were hoping the Dodgers would make the World Series for the purpose of arguing for a cap-floor. Me? I am just happy the Dodgers will not three-peat and that we will either have a brand new champion OR my Guardians will end the longest title drought in sports.
PHILADELPHIA - OCTOBER 25: Rain falls as the tarp covers the infield prior to game three of the 2008 MLB World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays on October 25, 2008 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Does game four of the American League Championship Series feel like a must win for the Tampa Bay Rays?
100% yes.
Will the weather affect the game?
Also, 100% yes.
The Rays and Guardians are at the mercy of mother nature in Cleveland and thus far, she has not been benevolent to the two teams.
Game three’s start time was moved up to 1pm on Thursday, making the earliest LCS game since the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets played at 12:20 at Shea Stadium. The earlier start time did little to help wake up the Rays sluggish offense as they only mustered two runs and struck out 13 times during the 3-2 loss.
Junior Caminero in particular had a rough game as he went to the plate four times and returned back to the dugout each as a strikeout victim. Caminero has only once in his big league career struck four times in a single game and that was back in 2025, when he went 0-4 with 4 K’s against the San Francisco Giants. The rest of the starting lineup didn’t fare much better as they only collected three hits during the game; Chandler Simpson provided the only runs when he laced a two-run triple down the right field line that actually gave the Rays the lead at the time.
The Rays postseason offensive production continues to be miniscule as they are now collectively hitting .197/.249/.314 with a 56 wRC+. The Rays touted big three of Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero have combined to hit .221/.284/.324 with just 1 HR over 75 PA, registering a 71 wRC+. During the regular season, those three hit .281/.359/.469 with 86 HR over 2026 PA, registering a 130 wRC+.
On the mound, the pitchers have done their part, with the staff holding a 2.72 ERA over their six postseason games. But there isn’t much margin for error when the offense has only averaged exactly three runs a game.
Tonight, it will be up to Nick Martinez to keep up the valiant pitching effort thus far from the Rays staff.
The 35-year old veteran makes his return to the mound after last starting during game three of the ALDS against the New York Yankees. Martinez was shaky during the outing but the overall results were fine. He surrendered five hits — all singles — while he walked one and struck out three over 3.2 innings of work. He left the game after getting drilled by a line drive off of the bat of Anthony Volpe, though the hit likely would have spelled the end of Martinez’s outing anyways.
Over the course of an All-Star season, the now 36-year old Martinez compiled a 3.10 ERA | 3.96 FIP with a 15.1 K% and league leading 3.6 BB% over 180 IP.
The Rays bullpen was exceptional during game three as Tyler Wells and Steven Matz provided the Rays with a total of four scoreless innings while racking up six strikeouts.; it was Matz’s first time pitching since September 26th. This allowed Kevin Cash to provide an extra day of rest to his top relievers, while also shielding them from being seen by the Guardians hitters more than needed; plus, they kept the game close enough to where the Rays still had a chance to mount a comeback.
Thus, all of the Rays top bullpen arms should be available today should Kevin Cash need to call upon them.
The Guardians meanwhile are thus far undecided on their pitching plans.
Speculation right now points to southpaw Joey Cantillo providing the bulk of the innings with Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi also appearing as options. Manager Stephen Vogt relied on his top relief arms during game three’s victory so there’s a question as to the availability of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, and Daniel Espino although I’m sure if the moment calls for it, any of that foursome would eagerly pitch.
Joey Cantillo has been an under-the-radar solid thrower for the Guardians since making his big league debut in 2024. The 26-year old mainly worked as a starting pitcher this season for Cleveland while splitting the 2025 season between the rotation and bullpen. Overall during the 2026 campaign, Cantillo compiled a 3.62 ERA | 3.98 FIP with a 24.9 K% & 11.8 BB% over 159 IP.
As for the weather.
The local news in Cleveland is reporting dreary miserable weather conditions for the weekend. It is likely to rain almost for the entirety of Friday, almost surely leading to a rain delay or possible postponement. The wind will wreak havoc on fly balls while the cold and rainy atmosphere will make for horrendous on field conditions. Memories of BJ Upton sloshing around on a muddy infield are at the forefront of my mind.
The sun will reemerge on Saturday but won’t bring warmth with it as the high is forecasted to to be around 46 degrees during the first pitch.
First pitch tonight is currently slated to be thrown at 8pm
The Los Angeles Dodgers' season ended abruptly Thursday night and in so doing effectively kickstarted the most scrutinized free agency for a starting pitcher since Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s arrival three years ago. Tarik Skubal, like all free-agents-to-be, will not officially be a free agent until five days after the World Series ends. But he will not pitch another inning before he signs. His resume is written. The market will do the rest.
Exactly how the Mets will approach, let alone shape that market is not something they have been willing to share yet publicly. President of baseball operations David Stearns went so far at his end-of-season news conference as to dodge a question about the high end of the starting pitching market that he merely inferred (correctly) was referring to Skubal. Publicly, at least, he and his front office have barely provided any tea leaves at which to squint.
But context, history, and conversations throughout the season with Mets officials who could not speak publicly about a player who was not yet a free agent, offer some insight into a potential Skubal pursuit. Despite Stearns' infamous reticence to hand out massive pitching contracts, the Mets seem likely to chase him to some degree – if only because there is no superstar Cohen technically cannot afford and therefore no superstar he seems unwilling to pursue. And unlike Kyle Tucker or evenBo Bichette, when the Mets pursued the former and signed the latter, Skubal directly addresses his team’s greatest need.
At present, the situation is loaded with variables about which the available information is incomplete. The first of those variables is Skubal, who was unwilling to speak about his future immediately after the Dodgers’ loss in Game 4 of the NLCS Thursday night. He offered no hints. He was focused on the disappointment.
"Today sucks, you know," he told reporters, including the California Post. "And that's kind of where my head's at."
Skubal, 29, has always spoken publicly like someone who will prioritize winning in his next destination. He is represented by Scott Boras (more on that later), who also represents Juan Soto. People familiar with Soto’s thinking say he still firmly believes Cohen wants to win and will do what it takes to transform the Mets into the annual World Series contender he promised. If Skubal checks in which his fellow Boras client, there is no reason to believe he would not hear a spirited pitch for Queens.
And if Skubal, who is currently on the Major League Baseball Players Association’s Executive Subcommittee, wants to prioritize setting a new bar for starting pitching contracts… well, Cohen and the Mets are capable of doing that, too. While Cohen has spoken publicly about how financially inefficient free agency can be, and while some have speculated that he might wish to pull back on payroll after two missed postseasons, Stearns was adamant in recent months that he is operating with no new budgetary restrictions and expects to able to make the moves he wants. Therein lies another variable.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws a pitch in the first inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Monday, Sept. 14, 2026. / USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Signing Skubal to the kind of massive, long-term contract a two-time Cy Young Award winner in his prime will expect goes against all of Stearns' team-building instincts. The only time Stearns pursued a long-term deal for a free agent starting pitcher, it was for the much younger Yamamoto, who was 25 when he signed and therefore fit the Mets' youth-driven model for pitchers more comfortably.
Skubal will be 30 next season and underwent an elbow procedure this year. One could almost plan for him to lose one of the next few years to Tommy John surgery (which would be his second). All great starters do at some point. But Stearns does not shy away from those deals as much because of potential injury as because of what happens later in the deals, when aging saps performance but the financial commitment is still commensurate with a premium player.
It would be worth pointing out here that Stearns has signed several other players to contracts that turned out to be financially inefficient and did not yield the long-term ace this team has needed for half a decade, and also that Cohen has pushed Stearns beyond his comfort zone for several long-term position player deals the former Milwaukee head of baseball operations would never have suggested himself. Soto's deal, for example, is astronomical. The average annual value of Bichette’s deal would qualify as an overpay in any team’s model – at least in terms of the quantifiable aspects of his impact.
Those deals offer an important lesson: Even if Stearns is reluctant to sign a player – or, more accurately, if it does not fit his team-building tenets – Cohen’s opinion matters. No one knows that better than Boras, who will pitch Skubal to Cohen as a big-market necessity. "Want to be like the Dodgers?" the argument will likely go, according to those who know Boras' approach. "Sign the stars while you build out the player development monster to support them."
Still, Cohen says one of truths he has internalized during his first years owning the Mets is how ineffective free agency can be as a team-building method.
"What are the areas to make the team better? Farm system. Trades. Staff. And free agency. Free agency is a negative expected value," Cohen said late this season. "…If you have to fill in holes, you have to fill in holes, too. So you have to be tactical. But every time you dip into free agency, you just know that’s a tough place to be."
But even as he is skeptical of its expected value, he has always seemed to understand he cannot win without using free agency entirely. For example, he has also spoken several times about operating in what he calls reality, particularly as it pertains to signing starting pitchers: If the market suggests the Mets can only sign top-end types by giving long-term deals, they might have to adjust their approach and give a few. Under the current rules of MLB – and who knows what those will be after the upcoming collective bargaining negotiations – signing Skubal is the quickest way for the Mets to jumpstart a rotation built around promising young arms that could use an ace to show them how to win.
Whether Skubal wants to be a mentor, or the pressure that comes with being the Mets' latest highly paid savior, or the scrutiny of pitching in New York after thriving as one of many stars in Los Angeles, is the biggest variable of all. The general consensus among those in the Mets organization and those who deal with Stearns' front office regularly seems to be that if Cohen decides he wants Skubal, the Mets will pay whatever it takes to get him. So trying to predict whether Skubal will be a Met next year, then, might be as simple as whether Skubal wants them.
Before the White Sox jump into a contract extension, Munetaka Murakami needs play like he’s worth a more premium contract. | (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
For a team predicted to bust before the first pitch on Opening Day was thrown, the Chicago White Sox managed to usurp expectations and delay disappointment until October 10, when they lost the ALDS after blowing a 2-0 series lead to the Guardians. Optimists may say that criticism can only go so far when a team improves by 24 games, but for those who are brutally honest with this team’s front office, prospect pipeline and team performance, we know that this team is far from dominating the AL Central — much less the AL.
Getting down to brass tacks, the biggest drivers of the swift postseason collapse need to be seriously and objectively examined for the health and longevity of the team.
Munetaka Murakami’s stock drop Murakami’s overall performance this year was underwhelming. Although his .847 OPS is what the majority of his paycheck went towards, his .207 batting average and 196 strikeouts, which translated to a 35.4% strikeout rate, detracted from his value. With a poor second half, Murakami’s end to his rookie campaign left a bitter taste, even for Sox fans. And a playoff output of five hits in 31 plate appearances, with 16 strikeouts and only one extra-base hit coming from his lone homer run in Game 1 of the ALDS, was painful.
Back in May, I would’ve found a way to subsidize Murakami’s salary to keep him in black and white. Now, the play and the pay aren’t adding up. His strikeouts became too routine, while his home-run swing progressively slowed. Although it’s was only his first taste of the majors, Murakami wouldn’t be able to command eight figures if he were signing a one-year deal today. While he’s delivered sensational moments and viral clips, his presence on the team in 2028 isn’t guaranteed, even if money wasn’t an object.
Colson Montgomery: Sink or swim In his first full year in the majors, Montgomery’s volatility at the plate is hard to dismiss as a mere sophomore slump. He batted below the Mendoza Line, hit just .179 against righties, and struck out in 35% of his at-bats. In the postseason, these benchmarks hardly improved: Montgomery’s batting average benefited from a small plate appearance sample size, improving to a more tolerable .238, but his ability to hit against righties fell to .154 and his strikeout rate jumped to more than 40%.
Young lefties who consistently struggle against righties are typically boom-or-bust players. Boom players like Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker compensate for their shortcomings with Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Awards. Bust players like Jarred Kelenic, on the other hand, always have their suitcase packed for their next minor league stint. The Sox still have a couple years before Montgomery is eligible for arbitration, but GM Chris Getz should think long and hard about whether his starting shortstop is worth keeping around with Roch Cholowsky hot on his heels.
Will Venable’s effectiveness as a manager Getz went on record with a loose commitment to bolstering the starting rotation in his end-of-season press conference, but his manager doesn’t get off scot-free. After flirting with a dynamic and a role-less pitching strategy during the regular season and increasingly down the stretch, Venable decided to get cutesy and underutilize the rotation while overtaxing the bullpen. Relievers contributed 44 ⅓ IP, while starters (primarily Sean Burke) supplied 17 ⅔ IP, representing the biggest contrast of any team that played in a division series. While it’s easy to say his magic worked against the Astros and Guardians through four games of the postseason, Venable’s magic touch ultimately proved to be more show than substance.
Like Montgomery, Venable is still learning and growing after finishing his second year in his first managing job. However, there will be a low tolerance to Venable’s antics in years to come if the Sox don’t take the division and run. Look at how Joe Espada’s tenure with Astros took a turn within one year. Chicago isn’t never far from a talent drain with its shoestring budget and unpredictable front office, so Venable should try to focus on winning than outsmarting teams if he wants to keep his job.
Dramatic end to Trent Grisham’s year after such a pedestrian regular season, eh? He was elevated to the leadoff spot in Game 3 of the AL Division Series against the Rays as Aaron Boone tried to jolt a snoring October offense. It did not work, making Grisham a flashpoint in the post-sweep disappointment.
Grisham, who has numbers against Rays starter Nick Martinez and owns a discerning eye for the strike zone, was supposed to get on base in front of Ben Rice, who was most of the pinstriped thunder in the playoffs. Big damage would follow.
But Grisham went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts, including a whiff for the final out of the final Yankee game of 2026. Rice was on deck, helpless as a one-run loss – and a season – ended.
Now Grisham heads into free agency coming off very different circumstances than last year, when the Yanks extended him the $22.05 million qualifying offer and he took it. What’s his fate now?
Should Grisham, who played 259 games in center field over the past two regular seasons for the Yanks, plus 12 more in the playoffs, stay or go?
WHY IT WOULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP GRISHAM
It was easy to dream on Grisham after 2025, when he had 34 home runs, 74 RBI and an .811 OPS, all career bests. On the Yankees, only Aaron Judge hit more homers and walked more that year. Grisham’s short lefty stroke and ability to hit the ball hard seemed a snug fit for Yankee Stadium’s right-field porch.
Grisham has never been a high batting average guy, but his strike-zone control jacked up his on-base percentage that season to .348, a career-best for a full season that the Yanks could at least hope represented a late-20s breakout. He was a center fielder who had won Gold Gloves in 2020 and 2022 with San Diego.
But Grisham, who turns 30 on Nov. 1, could not repeat that success in 2026. In 121 games, he had 18 home runs and 59 RBI. His slash line sagged to .211/.308/.395. His OPS tumbled 108 points to .703, below the MLB average of .719.
Still, the Yankees could reason that it was just a down year and that there’s more in his tank. Grisham’s expected batting average was down only three points from 2025 and his expected slugging indicated he could’ve expected bigger results, based on the quality of contact he made.
Grisham was hampered by two stints on the injured list with hamstring issues. Could the Yanks re-sign Grisham theorizing that they can expect a reasonable amount of production from him while they see how much they’ll get from youngsters such as Spencer Jones and Jasson Domínguez? Can Jones or Cody Bellinger be the regular center fielder?
In the losing clubhouse after Game 3, Grisham said, "I love the people here. I love playing here." At the very least, Yankee fans seem to appreciate a certain level of want-to when it comes to playing in the Bronx. Is that meaningful here?
WHY IT WOULD MAKE SENSE TO LET GRISHAM GO
Here are the Yankee outfielders for 2027, at least so far: Judge (duh), Bellinger, Heliot Ramos, Jones and Domínguez. Grisham just crowds it.
Aug 13, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Trent Grisham (12) runs out a single against the Seattle Mariners during the third inning at Yankee Stadium. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
It’s only a sample of 86 regular-season games and five more in the playoffs, but Jones probably earned a regular role after notching a .742 OPS, 11 homers and 10 steals. He seems to know he’s got things to work on, too. He’s athletic and can run and throw and maybe the Yanks should see if he can handle center field. Perhaps he’s the left fielder if Bellinger slides over.
Domínguez has not been able to seize a job and had a .635 OPS in 57 games this year. He has not been a good defensive player. But he’s only 23 years old. Isn’t it time to find out for real whether he can be the big deal he’s always been purported to be?
For what Grisham was in 2026, it’s not worth rostering him and potentially blocking anyone else. Defensive metrics did not love Grisham’s work in center field this year. When he was a leadoff hitter this year, his rate stats were worse than his overall production.
He’s also a left-handed hitter. As an offense, the Yankees probably could use more right-handed balance.
VERDICT
Go.
This one seems pretty easy. It’s time to find out what’s on the roster already. And if the Yankees deem they need outfield help, there are intriguing free agents who could help the offense.
Randy Arozarena (.865 OPS) and Seiya Suzuki (26 homers) are right-handed corner options. Tyrone Taylor, who hit .351 after the Mets traded him to the Cubs, is another righty option who would fit as center-field insurance and do-it-all fourth outfielder.
Grisham came to the Yanks as part of the pre-2024 season trade that brought Juan Soto to the Yankees. They got a player who eventually took over center field and gave them one very good year, but now he’s likely bound for a new baseball home.
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 15: David Hamilton #6 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the ninth inning during Game Four of the National League Championship Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, October 15, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Is everything in baseball actually about the Red Sox, even when it’s not about the Red Sox? Somehow I feel like the answer is yes.
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers last night to complete a four-game sweep of the NLCS and reach their first World Series since 1982. The first out of the game came on an outstanding play at shortstop by Mookie Betts. The first runs of the game were scored off Dustin May, who entered the game in the second inning, after Shane Drohan opened things up for the Brewers. And the Brewers comeback was powered by none other than David Hamilton, who knocked in childhood Sox fan Sal Frelick in the fifth inning, and then iced the game with a solo shot in the 9th. It’s Red Sox all the way down, just as it should be.
Use this space to talk about David Hamilton and whatever else you want and, as always, be good to one another.
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 22: Nathan Eovaldi #17 of the Texas Rangers stands on the mound during the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Globe Life Field on September 22, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Images
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 15: Garrett Mitchell #5 of the Milwaukee Brewers jogs around the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the sixth inning in game four of the National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium on October 15, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning friends and happy Friday!
Yesterday brought plenty of MLB postseason excitement. Let’s get to all of that and more.
MLB Postseason scores…
The extraordinary happened: The Dodgers were swept at the hands of the Brewers in a 6-4 comeback victory. The Brew Crew advances to their first World Series in 44 years where they hope to capture their first-ever pennant.
Rookie outfielder Petey Halpin was the hero for the Guardians in yesterday’s 3-2 win over the Rays, hitting the go-ahead homer with a bat flip to match. The Guards lead the series 2-1.
HOUSTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 17: Seth Lugo #67 of the Kansas City Royals pitches during the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Thursday, September 17, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Michaela Schumacher/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Last season, the Royals faced a crossroads with Seth Lugo. As they approached the trade deadline, there was healthy debate over whether the Royals should trade Lugo and try to acquire younger talent, or whether they should keep him to finish the year and bring him back for 2026. Just a few days before the trade deadline, the Royals and Lugo reached a deal on a two-year, $46 million extension with a vesting option for another year at $23 million per year. Lugo was going to remain a Royal.
Lugo’s performance dipped significantly after he signed the extension, but he also pitched with a back injury for a while before being shut down by the team. The hope coming into the season was that he was healthy and would be able to help lead the Royals back to the playoffs on the strength and depth of their starting pitching. His 2024 season was spectacular, but it was unrealistic to assume he would get back there production-wise. Still, an ERA around four while picking up the ball every fifth day would provide the value the Royals paid for in his contract.
The veteran started the season hot. Through April, Lugo sported a 2.63 ERA with a nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio. It looked like the back issue might have been all that held him back, and that bringing him back was the right decision. For the rest of the year, however, Lugo alternated between being a back-end starter or 2005 José Lima. Here are his remaining ERAs by month:
The right-hander did miss some time in June on the concussion – IL after getting struck in the forehead by a Brandon Nimmo fastball. Given the bump that appeared on his head, it’s a miracle that the injury wasn’t worse than it was. Besides that, Lugo was quite healthy this year, tossing 172.1 innings. Unfortunately, he had a 5.17 ERA over those innings.
Lugo has been an “out-pitching-his-peripherals” guy in previous seasons, but this year he actually had a 4.38 FIP, which was better than his 2025 FIP of 5.09. In some ways, he had the inverse of his 2025 season: an okay ERA and bad FIP last year, but a bad ERA with okay FIP this season. I don’t really know what to make of that, but I ask that we all be consistent in our arguments. If you are a “Lugo can out-pitch his peripherals consistently” kind of guy, please don’t turn around and argue, “But his FIP was better this season!”
The veteran really struggled against lefties this season, surrendering an .874 OPS against opposite-handed batters. That OPS mark would have led all Royals batters this season. His curveball, four-seam fastball, and sweeper were all terrible against lefties this year, combining for -32 runs of value against southpaws alone. They also represented 46% of his usage against lefty batters. Compare that to two years ago, when Lugo’s fastball held its own against left-handed hitters while his curveball was worth +8 runs, and it’s clear that something has changed in his ability to fool hitters, particularly lefties, and keep them off balance. Whether Lugo can find that again or we are watching an aging player rage against the dying of the light remains to be seen.
It will be interesting to see how Lugo is deployed next season. If Lugo throws 162.2 innings next season, his 2028 option will vest at $20 million. If not, it becomes a $17 million club option. The Royals have a $3 million buyout if Lugo’s option doesn’t vest and they don’t want to pick up the club option.
If Lugo pitches as he did in 2026 next year, the Royals may want 2027 to be his last season. Of course, if he throws as many innings as he did in 2026, his 2028 salary is guaranteed. Kansas City doesn’t have a stable of starters lined up for 2027, so I expect Lugo will be one of the starting five and not shifted to the bullpen. There could be tension between the team and the player next year if it’s August and Lugo has a 5-run ERA and is closing in on his innings limit. For now, this is just something to monitor, but I don’t love seeing financial incentives that could put a team and a player at odds over his playing time.
As it stands right now, I think the Royals would have been better off trading Lugo last season versus bringing him back for this one, but I admittedly don’t know what was on offer. What I do know is that Lugo was able to pick up the ball every fifth day, but he was also part of the Royals’ pitching problems this year that led to the second-worst ERA in the American League. The starter comes across as a real craftsman, and I have no doubt that he will work on his issues against lefties in the offseason. I wonder if that will be enough, or if we all witnessed the beginning of the end of Lugo’s career as an effective starter.
Next month, I’ll begin my usual “Cubs free agent target” series, as well as writing a few articles about potential Cubs trade targets.
For now, I’d like to continue this series that’s been taking a look at 2026 Cubs who are going to be free agents.
Tyrone Taylor came over from the Mets as part of the deal that brought Clay Holmes to Chicago. While Holmes did okay, most of the time, Taylor performed the duties he was asked exactly as expected.
He was brought in to back up all three outfield positions and to hit against left-handed starters. He did both of those jobs quite well.
In 30 games for the Cubs, Taylor batted .351/.390/.500 (26-for-74) with eight doubles, a home run and three stolen bases in 82 PA. That’s a really good showing. Overall in 2026, Taylor batted .318/.348/.573 (35-for-110) against left-handed pitching with 10 doubles and six home runs. (I was unable to split out how many of the 82 PA for the Cubs were vs. RHP. It wasn’t many, to my recollection.)
These numbers were quite a bit better than Taylor’s career numbers vs. LHP. In several previous seasons, he played a lot more than he did in 2026, when he had 241 PA (341 in 2025, 345 in 2024, 405 in 2022).
This suggests that perhaps Taylor has found a role he’s good at. Not only did he hit well, but he played excellent defense.
The only drawback is that Taylor isn’t young. He’ll turn 33 in January. He still appears to have all those skills intact and I would think he could be useful for the Cubs for another year or two. Taylor also played for Craig Counsell for five years in Milwaukee, so the Cubs manager is quite familiar with him. (I wouldn’t be surprised if Counsell lobbied for Taylor to be acquired from the Mets.)
It’s really the first time in a while that the Cubs have had a fourth outfielder this good. Mike Tauchman did okay in that role for a while, but Taylor is better defensively. And as a right-handed hitter, he can give PCA a breather in center field every once in a while. PCA played in all 162 games and led MLB with 726 plate appearances. He seemed to be running out of gas at the end of the season.
Taylor made $3.8 million in 2026. He had a very good year as that fourth outfielder. Would you give him a two-year, $8 million deal? I would. Or would it cost a bit more? Still worth it, in my view.
