Category: MLB

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Diamondbacks play a three-game series in Arizona starting on Friday.

5 things to watch

Mets showing signs of life

The Mets have won four of six games on their current road trip, taking two of three from both the Los Angeles Angels and the Colorado Rockies. In truth, they could have and maybe should have won all six games against two bad teams, but after their disastrous April, they’re at least playing a little better in May.

Yet as of Friday, they still are tied with the San Francisco Giants for the worst record in baseball at 14-23, but the Mets have a chance to do more damage on the final leg of this nine-game trip against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has lost six of its last seven games to fall to 17-19, mainly because of poor pitching, especially from their starters.

A chance to beat up on bad pitching

The Diamondbacks rank 26th in the majors in ERA at 4.78, and their starters are worse, ranking 28th with a 5.09 ERA. And that’s despite Eduardo Rodriguez having an All-Star season so far, pitching to a 2.50 ERA in seven starts covering 39.1 innings. 

Unfortunately for the Mets, Rodriguez, who pitched a strong game at Citi Field to beat New York in April, is lined up to pitch the Sunday finale of this series. But there’s no excuse for the offense not to make some noise in the first two games, against Ryne Nelson (1-3, 6.61 ERA) and Merrill Kelly (1-3, 9.95 ERA). 

Can Nolan McLean's dazzling stuff produce a win?

With a record of 1-2, McLean hasn’t earned a win in over a month, going back to April 3 against the Giants. Obviously, some of that is due to a lack of run support, but as dominant as he looked in most of his starts, McLean also has had some trouble getting through the fifth and sixth innings, facing a lineup for a third time.

He goes into Friday night’s start coming off perhaps his worst outing of the season, as he was pulled after only four innings, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk. Overall, though, McLean has been very good, holding opposing hitters to a .184 batting average while pitching to a 2.97 ERA.

Carson Benge figuring it out?

Benge has provided a spark for the Mets on this road trip, playing some brilliant outfield defense while coming to life with the bat. With five hits in his last four games, including a home run and a double, as well as three walks, the rookie has raised his batting average to .208 while having much better at-bats overall than he did in his first month in the big leagues.

Benge actually has been making significant progress for a few weeks, going back to March 22 when he was hitting just .136 and looking overmatched. The Mets desperately need him to blossom into the impact hitter they envisioned, and the sooner the better.

Ildemaro Vargas

One of the surprise stories of the season so far is Vargas, a journeyman infielder who is off to the start of his life, leading the majors with a .360 batting average to go with a .995 OPS while playing first base for the Diamondbacks. Vargas actually has cooled off slightly in the last few days, after his 27-game hitting streak, extending back to late last season, ended last Saturday. He was hitting .404 until then.

His early-season success is remarkable considering the 34-year-old Vargas has never been able to earn regular playing time in his 10-year career, during which he has been designated for assignment seven times while playing for five different teams.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Juan Soto

It’s not the boldest prediction, and Soto cooled off against the Rockies, but in this lineup, he has to hit for the Mets to win the series. Thus, the pick. 

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Clay Holmes

At 1.69, Holmes has the second-best ERA in MLB among qualified starters, behind only Shohei Ohtani. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his seven starts this season. 

Which D-Backs player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Ildemaro Vargas

How can I pick against the guy who’s leading the majors in hitting with a .360 average? 

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Our MLB picks for Friday are picking on the Astros, as we love the value on both fading Houston and the total in that game, based on prices from Polymarket.

See why our baseball experts are backing both angles of that game — plus an Under in the South Side of Chicago.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: HOU/CIN o9.5	+108
Jon Metler: CIN ML	-133
Joe Osborne: SEA/CHW u8.5	-122

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Astros/Reds Over 9.5

Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket

The wind is blowing out at Great American Ball Park, and this sets up as a battle between two of the worst bullpens in baseball — that are likely to be heavily involved today. The Cincinnati Reds are sending out Nick Lodolo, who is making his first start of the year after throwing just 79 pitches in his last rehab outing (while dealing with a blister). On the other side, for the Houston Astros, starter Mike Burrows has allowed 8+ hits in four of his seven starts, and he's much worse on the road. Late scoring is also a likelihood, with the Reds bullpen carrying a 7.79 ERA over the last 14 days — and also taxed after getting embarrassed in Chicago — and Houston not far behind at 7.44.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Reds moneyline

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

Mike Burrows has been struggling to locate his four-seam fastball, which is a dangerous problem heading into a start at Great American Ballpark. In a bigger stadium (like Houston's Daikin Park), those mistakes might turn into harmless fly balls — in Cincinnati, they can quickly become home runs. Burrows has allowed a .341 batting average and a 1.016 OPS against lefty hitters, and four of Cincinnati's first five projected hitters bat from the left side, including switch-hitter Elly De La Cruz, giving the Reds ample opportunity to pressure him early. The market has Cincinnati priced as 57-cent favorite on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 62 cents, which gives me enough value to back the home side.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Mariners/White Sox Under 8.5

Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket

A pair of emerging starters, backed by bullpens in rock-solid form, sets the stage for a low-scoring game in Chicago. Emerson Hancock gets an extra day of rest after striking out 14 in his last outing, and he’s been excellent on the road with a 2.41 ERA. Sean Burke has been equally as sharp at home, posting a 2.66 ERA and allowing zero earned runs in back-to-back starts. Add two offenses ranked 24th or worse in home/road scoring — plus the wind blowing in — and the Under looks like a great way to kick off the weekend.

More MLB best bets for today

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Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees hit the road to take on the Brewers in a three-game series starting Friday...

Carlos Rodon's season debut

It's been a while, but the Yankees are finally ready to welcome Rodon back to the rotation.

The veteran southpaw is set to start Sunday's series finale after offseason elbow surgery had him missing the start of the regular season. How Rodon pitches in the big leagues after so many months away is unknown, but he had his up and downs in the minors during his rehab assignment.

Across three minor starts, one in High-A, Double-A and Triple-A, Rodon allowed seven runs (six earned) across 16.0 innings pitched while striking out 20 batters. His last start was by far Rodon's worst outing, when he allowed five earned across 6.1 innings pitched.

Should we glean anything from those starts? We'll find out on Sunday.

Spencer Jones' MLB debut

The Yankees placedJasson Dominguez on the IL and called up Jones, one of their top offensive prospects, to the club on Friday.

How manager Aaron Boone plans to use Jones is unknown, but the athletic outfielder can play the field very well and run the bases. The everyday outfield of Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge is pretty set, but Jones could slide in as the DH against right-handers this weekend, which the Yankees will see two of -- more on that later.

The potential for Jones to receive at-bats is there and the Yankees could see what they have. In 33 Triple-A games, Jones smashed 11 home runs and drove in 41 runs to go with seven stolen bases while batting .258.

Going up against the Miz

One of those right-handers is Jacob Misiorowski. The flamethrowing starter will start opposite Max Fried in a blockbuster matchup on Friday night. 

The 24-year-old has a 2-2 record with a 2.84 ERA across seven starts this season. Of course, it's his strikeout rate that's eye-popping. He has 59 punchouts across 38.0 innings pitched, including at least eight in five of his seven starts, including in three straight. 

Misiorowski had to leave his last start (May 1) after 5.1 innings with cramps, so we'll have to see how he bounces back and if the Yankees can hit him.

Will Ben Rice return to the lineup?

Rice has missed four games since exiting Sunday's game after being hit in the hand with a pitch. The Yankees haven't put the slugging first baseman on the IL, so it seems he's close to returning. But will he finally return to the lineup? 

Could the Yankees change course and just put Rice on the IL? 

The Yankees are 3-1 in the games Rice has missed, and Paul Goldschmidt has filled in admirably, but New York needs Rice, who is arguably the team's most consistent hitter this season, batting .343 with 12 home runs and 27 RBI. 

Will Cody Bellinger stay hot? 

While the Yankees wait for word on whether Rice can return to the lineup, the others have picked up the slack, including Bellinger. The outfielder enters the weekend series on a nine-game hitting streak. During that streak (since April 28), he's batting .471/.525/.971 with six runs, seven doubles, two triples, two home runs and 14 RBI.

Bellinger has played 25 games in Milwaukee in his career and has hit .320 with five home runs. 

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Aaron Judge

Judge already has 15 homers and will continue to show off his power.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best start?

Max Fried

Fried has been great and will solidify his place at the top of the early Cy Young race with another strong start.

Which Brewers player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Jackson Chourio

The talented young outfielder has returned after missing the start of the season with a hand fracture. Entering Friday, he's 6-for-9 with three extra-base hits in the two games since coming back. 

Columbus Clippers 4, Iowa Cubs 2

Clippers improve to 19-17

Cooper Ingle returned from injury recently and he hasn’t missed a beat. The top catching prospect blasted off on Thursday, going a perfect 3-for-3 at the plate with a home run and a walk. He’s now batting a ridiculous .432 with a 1.445 OPS on the season.

Additionally, Angel Genao has been off to a slow start in Columbus, but he connected for his first Triple-A home run and stole a base, which was great to see.

Kahlil Watson went 1-for-4 with a walk and two steals and Juan Brito doubled and stole a base.

Former innings eater Pedro Avila had one of his best outings of the season as a starting pitcher, allowing two runs on two hits with three walks and three strikeouts in 5.0 innings.

Will Dion followed with a scoreless inning and Trenton Denholm closed out the victory with 3.0 scoreless innings of long relief.

Akron RubberDucks 4, Richmond Flying Squirrels 5

RubberDucks fall to 16-14

Akron’s late rally fell short as the RubberDucks lost their fourth straight game Thursday.

Ralphy Velazquez led the way on offense, going 3-for-4 with two doubles and a walk.

Alex Mooney had the only other multi-hit game, going 2-for-4, while Connor Barstad homered and Nick Mitchell went 1-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base.

Starting pitcher Matt Wilkinson was solid, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits with six strikeouts and two walks in 4.2 innings. Jack Jasiak was outstanding in long relief, tossing 2.1 scoreless frames with three strikeouts, although he allowed an inherited runner to score.

Unfortunately, Jay Driver gave up two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning, which stunted Akron’s comeback attempt.

Lake County Captains 15, Great Lakes Loons 13 (F/8) Game 1
Lake County Captains 2, Great Lakes Loons 7 (F/7) Game 2

Captains move to 14-16

Game one was one hell of a wild ride as Lake County blasted off for 15 runs on 14 hits and 11 walks.

Every single player in the lineup reached base at least twice.

Leading the charged was Jace LaViolette, who went 2-for-5 with a massive home run and four RBIs.

Ryan Cesarini also had a monster game, going 2-for-4 with a home run, a double and a walk.

Bennett Thompson went 2-for-5 while Garrett Howe went 2-for-3 with a walk. Dean Curley went 1-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base, Nolan Schubart went 1-for-2 with three walks, Tommy Hawke went 1-for-3 with two walks and Aaron Walton went 2-for-4 with a walk.

The craziest moment, however, didn’t involve any of those players. Trailing 13-12 in the bottom of the eighth inning, Lake County called on Jeffrey Mercedes to pinch hit and despite having a .146 batting average on the season, he blasted a walk-off three-run bomb.

I’m only going to mention starting pitcher Braylon Doughty, because he was fine, allowing three runs (two earned) on three hits with three walks and four strikeouts in two innings.

Game two wasn’t much to write home about. Luke Hill pretty much accounted for all of the offense, going 2-for-3 with a home run, a double and a walk.

Dean Curley also went 1-for-3 with a walk and Mercedes went 1-for-2 with a hit by pitch.

Starting pitcher Rafe Schlesinger was tagged for four runs on five hits with eight strikeouts and three walks in 4.1 innings.

Hill City Howlers 2, Fredericksburg Nationals 4

Howlers fall to 18-12

The first seven players in Hill City’s lineup all had a hit, but no one had a multi-hit game. Yelferth Castillo and Cannon Peebles both doubled while Robert Arias and Jose Pirela both went 1-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base.

Starting pitcher Joey Oakie was fine, albeit a bit wild, allowing one run on two hits with three walks and four strikeouts in 2.2 innings.

Zane Petty was excellent in long relief, allowing one more run on three hits with four strikeouts in 3.1 innings. The game stayed tied until the ninth inning, when Aaron Savary allowed two runs.

Bill Dawley would appear in 275 games as a reliever during his major league career.    He’d make his debut with the Astros on April 15th and set ablaze the first half of the 1983 season, winning 5 contests while posting a 1.88 ERA.  That start would culminate with an All-Star Selection at Old Comiskey Park in the Mid-Summer Classic in Chicago.   

Here’s the 12th installment of our continuing legends series.    

Q:  Did you have any idea you were going to be dealt during spring training in 1983?   

A:  I had obviously been with the Reds for years and I thought that year I would make the club, but I didn’t make the starting five.

On one of the very last days of spring training, they demoted me, but back then you had 72 hours to report to the minor leagues.  I was disappointed, but then I received a phone call from Chief Bender who was the man responsible for building the foundation for the Big Red Machine. He told me he about a trade to the Astros, so I get optioned to Tucson, AZ and now I’m in their system but not with the main club. 

As fate would have it, the Astros started the year 0-9 and they brought me up.    

Q:  And then upon being brought up, you catch fire immediately and start paying dividends.  What do you remember most from your first game?

A:  I’m brought up and we’re playing the Expos.  The first batter I faced, I actually hit in the ribs, that was Chris Spiers. 

So, he’s on first and then Terry Francona comes up next and bunts into a double play with a hard ground ball to Phil Garner.  I get the next guy out, we score a run the next inning, and all of sudden, I have my first win.     

The team is 1-9 and I’m 1-0! (laughs) It happens again a few nights later, I get another win after the team loses a few, and I’m 2-0, but the team is 2-11.  They quickly gave me the nickname “The Vulture”.

Q:  All told the first half is so impressive, that you are named to the All-Star Team.  What was that experience like?

A:  I was sitting in a hotel in Atlanta, and back then the managers and coaches picked the pitching staff so Whitey Herzog calls and says “Congrats! You’re an all-star.”    

It all happened so quickly that I didn’t have time to think about it.  Ironically, I had grown up a huge Red Sox fan, and the first guy I faced that night was Jim Rice.   

Q:  You get Rice, you face George Brett, Lance Parrish, and Manny Trillo.  You got all of those guys out.   What was that experience like?

A:  I was pumped.  I was on cloud nine.  I struck out Parrish, I got Brett to foul out to third base.   After Brett, Dave Winfield came up and I made him look silly on two sliders to start things, and thought I could get a fastball by him, but he hit it into right field and then I got Trillo.   I still remember what I threw those guys and it sometimes feels like yesterday.

Q:  Toughest hitter you ever faced?

A:  Andre Dawson.  When he was with the Expos, I think I got him out every single time.    When he was traded to the Cubs, he just owned me.  He hit three home runs against me, a fastball, a slider, and a change up.  He was my toughest out by far.

Q:  Pitching in the Dome.  What comes to mind?

A:  I loved it.  You know my first 10 or 11 innings; I hadn’t given up a run.  So, one night, the count is 2 balls and no strikes on Dale Murphy, and I just thought because the dome was so massive that I’d throw him a fastball on the outer half, because no one in the Dome hits a homerun to center field.    

Well, I was wrong (laughs).  Dale hits it over the fence and that was the first run I ever gave up.   It was a great place to pitch, and I actually liked the AstroTurf because you rarely got any bad bounces along the way.   

I definitely have much more negative feelings reserved for the feelings. I don’t really even have strong feelings, including negative feelings, for the Dodgers — but I know a lot of others do. So, let’s hear it.

For these Orioles, after the rotten 2025 they had, one thing was supposed to be true this year: this would be a lineup that could weather bad injury luck. Mike Elias signed Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million deal, added competent veteran outfielders in Taylor Ward and Leody Taveras, and supplemented the infield depth.

That plan sounded fine, in theory, but in truth, these signings could never fully compensate for the bottom falling out when it comes to homegrown players. There are a few places you could point to, but no hiding the ugly truth: Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo are, at the moment, the team’s most conspicuous weak points. Mayo holds a .152/.218/.283 line, while Cowser sits at .179/.282/.209. Those are brutal numbers, and for two bat-first players, they demand scrutiny.

As prospects, both Cowser and Mayo crushed minor league pitching, but the transition to MLB has been rough for both. A first-round pick in 2021, Cowser hit .300 (.916 OPS) in three MiLB seasons, then came out guns a-blazing as a rookie, slashing .242/.321/.768 with 24 home runs and 69 RBIs over 153 games in 2024. But in 2025, the Milkman suffered a fractured thumb, broke some ribs in a wall collision, and sustained a concussion that limited him to 92 games. His numbers have gotten worse since. Mayo, meanwhile, signed well above slot for $1.75 million after scouts saw elite raw power in his 6’4” frame. Mayo tore through the minors, a career .905 MiLB hitter, but his early MLB exposure has not been encouraging—he’s batted .193 in 134 games while playing a ham-handed third base, the position he came up playing.

Both Cowser and Mayo hit Triple-A pitching for the same fundamental reason: they have plus raw power and can punish mistakes. Triple-A pitchers make mistakes frequently—they leave fastballs over the plate, hang breaking balls, and miss spots on offspeed pitches. A hitter with Cowser’s bat speed or Mayo’s raw power can feast in that environment even with significant swing-and-miss in their profiles, because the mistakes are frequent enough to keep the barrel busy.

But at the major league level, the margin for error disappears. Cowser handles fastballs well, but he’s posted a whiff rate north of 40% against breaking balls in each of the past three seasons. Predictably, opposing pitchers have fed him a steadily mounting diet of breaking and offspeed pitches, down and away. For Mayo, the challenge is slightly different: scouts have long noted that his plus-plus raw power requires a swing that is sufficiently short and smooth to make contact. Perhaps for that reason, he’s selling out on fastballs right now, to the detriment of his ability to hit offspeed pitches.

Are things as bad for both hitters as the data seems? Peripheral data complicates the story for one hitter, not the other. Cowser’s expected numbers are barely better than his actual, with a wOBA of .213 but an xwOBA of .249, and batting average of .189 versus an expected average of .204. His batting average on balls in play (BABip, a test of luck) is .279, meaning that his hitting about as well as he should. Meanwhile, Mayo has a .244 wOBA against an xwOBA of .277, and an actual batting average of .164 versus an expected average of .221, a 57-point gap that is one of the largest on the entire roster. His BABip, .186, is terrible. That is the kind of statistical disparity that suggests bad luck on balls in play, which for him is good news.

One more comparative angle to note is the teamwide one. The Orioles, as a unit, are the sixth-most strikeout-prone unit in baseball: in the AL, only Chicago, Seattle and Los Angeles whiff more than them. This is problematic, to say the least. So there could be an approach problem not the fault of either hitter. Cowser and Mayo strike out closer to as many times as Gunnar Henderson (all between 30-31%), with Blaze Alexander and Samuel Basallo (25.9%) close behind. On the other hand, when it comes to isolated power, Basallo, Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Pete Alonso all exceed .200, an excellent mark. Meanwhile, Mayo sits at .130 (below average) and Cowser’s .030 mark is what Fangraphs calls “Awful.” A 30% strikeout rate with little power is not doing much in the lineup, to state the obvious.

So should these two youngsters get ticketed for the Norfolk shuttle? I’m not sure, frankly. For Mayo, the case for patience is twofold: one, the demonstrated gap between his actual and expected results, and two, the absence of realistic options at third base, with Jordan Westburg still working back from a partial UCL tear in his right elbow with no timetable, and Blaze Alexander confirming that he’s utility piece, not an everyday answer. Jeremiah Jackson has hit well this season, but he’s primarily a middle infielder.

For Cowser, the case is getting tougher, but he is a high-ceiling prospect deserving of some margin. At the same time, his hitting data here suggests he’s not underperforming; he’s just not hitting. A team trying to salvage its season can’t exactly give him infinite rope. Dylan Beavers is not exactly knocking on the door, but while Leody Taveras has essentially been a backup since 2024, he’s producing positive value right now, and may be worth riding as a CF option for as long as the team can.

In the end, it seems that optioning Cowser and Mayo wouldn’t solve anything, because there aren’t great replacements for them at any level in this organization. What this roster really needs is for Henderson and Alonso to heat up, for the balls Mayo is hitting to start falling in, and for Cowser to spend lots of time in the cage on his timing. Probably, at the present time, the team will give it another few weeks. If Mayo is still in the .160s and Cowser is still whiffing at breaking balls with no power in sight, then the conversation changes. Right now, sending Mayo and Cowser down just means Blaze Alexander starts at third base and Leody Taveras starts in center. That could be an upgrade in the short-term, but does little to answer this team’s larger questions.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Orion Kerkering was probably the biggest story from the end of the 2025 season. His gaffe that sealed the Phillies’ elimination at the hands of the Dodgers in the NLDS loomed like a specter over the entire offseason. But as we sit in May 2026, Kerkering has been in the background amid the team’s early struggles and feels as though he’s a forgotten man in the discussion at this point.

An injury in early spring training delayed Kerkering’s season debut until shortly after Opening Day, but he’s been quietly effective in his limited work. He’s appeared in 14 games entering play on Thursday and owns a 2.08 ERA through 13 innings pitched. Kerkering has collected nine strikeouts but also has six walks and surrendered nine hits including a home run. His underlying metrics paint a good picture, as his xERA of 2.01 is currently in the 97th percentile of all pitchers. Meanwhile, his expected batting average of .142 and average exit velocity of 80.5 MPH are among the best in all of baseball.

Despite his strong quality of contact numbers, Kerkering has once again struggled to generate swings and misses. He finished 2025 with a 24.4% strikeout rate that was only slightly above average and felt lacking considering the stuff Kerkering possesses. His whiff rate of 23.3% was well below league average and is down to 19.8% in the early going of 2026. He has however begun to experiment with throwing a splitter, a pitch he never utilized in the past. It’s only been thrown ten times, nine of which were to lefties, but Kerkering’s splitter has already generated six whiffs. The high number of walks in 2026 isn’t new either, as his 10.2% walk rate in 2025 was the highest among qualified relievers in the Phillies bullpen.

So, what do you make of Orion Kerkering’s season so far? Do you feel as though his error to end last season still lingers in his head? Or do you think he’s put it behind him?

Yankees 9, Rangers 2

• Well that sucked.
• I’m going to cut the offense some slack on this one, though. The Rangers had a number of hard hit balls that ended up finding gloves, starting with the first batter of the game, when Brandon Nimmo ripped a shot to deep left that Jasson Dominguez made a great play on.
• Dominguez crashed into the left field wall and had to leave the game, resulting in Ryan McMahon coming into the game and the Yankees doing a bunch of defensive shuffling.
• The Rangers followed things up in the first with an Ezequiel Duran walk, an Ezequiel Duran caught stealing, a Corey Seager walk, a Josh Jung HBP, and a Joc Pederson ground out.
• What one would have thought would’ve, could’ve, been a productive inning resulted in nothing.
• The bottom of the first featured two triples by the Yankees, both to right field, where Joc Pederson was getting his first start in the outfield since 2023.
• The first triple was by Paul Goldschmidt. It was his sixth triple since the start of the 2019 season.
• This was the second of the two triples:

• See, a reasonable person would have seen how the first inning shook out and said, nope, it ain’t happening today.
• We aren’t reasonable people, though. We’re Rangers fans.
• Still, the Rangers stayed in it for a while. They took the lead, even, putting one up on an Ezequiel Duran homer and getting another run on a Duran RBI ground out.
• It was all a ruse, though, a way of sucking us in, thinking that they’d take the final game in New York, come home with a .500 road trip.
• Things finally went to pieces in the sixth, though, when MacKenzie Gore, Jalen Beeks and Cole Winn each retired one (1) batter, and six runs came across.
• Oh, and Peyton Gray gave up his first run of the season, with two outs in the ninth, on a comebacker that hit him in the wrist and knocked him out of the game.
• I had a dream last night that the Rangers blew a game by sending Ezequiel Duran out to pitch the top of the ninth inning with a lead, and he allowed 14 runs (though just 13 were earned) before Peyton Gray came in to retire the last batter of the inning.
• I woke up before the Rangers batted in the bottom of the ninth, though, so I don’t know if they rallied for a comeback win.
• MacKenzie Gore’s fastball topped out at 97.0 mph, averaging 95.0 mph. Jalen Beeks touched 94.3 mph with his fastball. Cole Winn’s cutter maxed out at 92.1 mph. Tyler Alexander’s sinker hit 90.8 mph. Peyton Grey reached 93.1 mph with his fastball. Gavin Collyer threw one fastball, which was 96.2 mph.
• Jake Burger had a 110.9 mph fly out. Brandon Nimmo had a 108.6 mph single, a 104.8 mph single, and a 101.0 mph fly out. Evan Carter had a 108.2 mph fly out. Corey Seager had a 107.7 mph fly out and a 100.0 mph fly out. Joc Pederson had a 107.3 mph single and a 106.7 mph ground out. Josh Jung had a 103.5 mph GIDP. Ezequiel Duran had a 101.0 mph ground out.
• The road trip is over. Back to the Shed.

The playoff-bound Red Sox posted three All-Star selections in 2025 with Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapman. The trio of offseason additions stood among the game’s top performers, though the closer was the only Boston player to suit up for the midsummer classic in Atlanta. 

Baseball sits just over two months from the All-Star break, which this year will be held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia as part of America 250 celebrations across the country. The star-spangled celebration of the country’s national pastime should be a memorable installment. 

While Boston remains under .500 to start the season, the Red Sox could still have legitimate representatives in the game.

Here are three Red Sox hopefuls who could find themselves in Philadelphia in mid-July:

Willson Contreras

2026 Stats (Entering Thursday): .264/.376/.481, .856 OPS, 8 HR, 23 RBI

Previous All-Star selections: 3 (2018, 2019, 2022)

Boston really can’t ask for much more from the veteran first baseman so far in a Red Sox uniform. He’s the lone source of true power in the lineup and his energy is a rare sparkplug for a clubhouse that’s needed exactly that time and time again. 

Wilyer Abreu

2026 Stats (Entering Thursday): .299/.381/.467, .848 OPS, 5 HR, 16 RBI

Previous All-Star selections: N/A

Abreu already has a pair of Gold Gloves to his name. A strong start offensively could put Abreu in the All-Star conversation and earn more deserved national attention as a standout in Boston’s outfield log jam. 

Aroldis Chapman

2026 Stats (Entering Thursday): 0-1, 0.77 ERA, 12 G, 9 SV, 14 K, 3 BB 

Previous All-Star selections: 8 (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2025)

The Red Sox have had some lengthy stretches without Chapman pitching this season. Nonetheless, he’s done the job when his number gets called. The lefty put together a resurgent 2025 campaign where he was nearly unhittable for the Red Sox.

He may be a tick below that this season, but he’s still one of the better relievers in the sport.

The Yankees are on a roll. After a 6-1 homestand in which they mopped the floor with the Orioles and decisively took two of three from the Rangers (again), the Bombers boast an AL-best 26-12 record. Now, they’ll shove off for a nine-game road trip, beginning with a three-game set against the Brewers in Milwaukee.

The last trip the Yankees took to American Family Field was highly enjoyable. In 2024 they scored 15 runs in consecutive contests, and would have wrapped up a sweep if the Crew didn’t outlast them in an 11-inning game to open the series. Last season, of course, the Yankees swept the Brewers in the Bronx to open their regular season, setting home run records along the way. What will 2026 hold for this matchup? One thing we know for sure: Carlos Rodón is scheduled to make his season debut in the series finale.

Milwaukee is currently stuck in the middle of a five-team dogfight in the NL Central—as everyone expected. They enter action at 19-16, good for third place behind Chicago and a resurgent Cardinals team they just saw on their recent road trip. They’ve had a tendency to play above their proverbial weight class in recent years, but right now the middle of the road feels about right for their roster construction. That said, they have some excellent pitching, and some of their finest arms will take on the Yankees’ best.

Friday: Max Fried vs. Jacob Misiorowski (7:45 pm ET)

Fried didn’t have his best stuff last time out against Baltimore, but grit his teeth through 5.1 innings, allowing three runs and striking out six batters. It’s easy to forget about it now, but Fried’s first start as a Yankee came in that game where the Yankees scored 20 runs and homered nine times—and Fried didn’t pitch all that well. But of course, the Yankees scored 20 runs. Everyone sorta wrote off that start from Fried, and they were right to do so.

Misiorowski—a.k.a. The Miz—became a sensation when he was called up last June, even getting flown out to the All-Star Game to get a national audience. The tall Missourian didn’t finish the season with spectacular results, but his first full season in the Bigs is off to a strong start. He actually had a no-hitter going in his last start against the Nationals before cramping up and having to leave the game in the sixth. We’ll see how far he can go in his first career matchup with the Bombers.

Saturday: Cam Schlittler vs. Kyle Harrison (7:10 pm ET)

Schlittler keeps acing all the tests. His Monday night start was not Cam at his sharpest either, with seven hits and three walks to just four strikeouts, but he started throwing 101 mph as a lark, setting new a career mark in fastball velo. Sure. Why not. I guess you gotta keep yourself entertained some way or another. He wound up loading the bases in the sixth and departing for Jake Bird, who grabbed a key strikeout to end the inning. That kept his numbers looking pretty: a 1.52 ERA with 53 Ks and nine walks.

Who won the Rafael Devers trade? Why, the Milwaukee Brewers, of course! Kyle Harrison began on the Giants as a top prospect, packed his bags for Boston, and found himself on the move to the Wisconsin pitching factory when the Red Sox lost Alex Bregman and suddenly needed more infielders. So now the Red Sox don’t have Devers, Bregman, or Harrison. To me, that’s awesome.

Of course, six starts are six starts. But the 24-year old southpaw is looking like a keeper for Milwaukee, with a 2.12 ERA. Two starts ago, he cruised through six scoreless one-hit innings against the Pirates, while striking out 12. The Yankees have managed some success against southpaw starters this year—including MacKenzie Gore in the Texas series finale—so we’ll see if that trend continues against Harrison.

Sunday: Carlos Rodón vs. Logan Henderson (2:10 pm ET)

The first of two eagerly-awaited returns in the rotation is scheduled for the Sunday matinée, with Rodón taking the hill. Carlos’ last rehab start was eventful; he allowed a lot of hits and runs but pitched into the seventh inning, so he should be fully built up. Rodón’s start-to-start consistency was a revelation last year after he felt like a bit of a mystery box in 2024. Hopefully his first outing back will be a good tone setter against a wonky Milwaukee offense that just got some major reinforcements: Andrew Vaughn and Jackson Chourio made their returns to the lineup on Monday.

Logan Henderson is another typical homegrown Brewers pitching prospect developed from an obscure school: taken in the fourth round of the 2021 draft out of McLennan Community College in Waco, Texas. (Notable former Yankee Jay Buhner went there, though!) Milwaukee’s No. 6 prospect had a solid couple games last year and just came up from the Minors to toss six quality innings against the Nationals last Sunday. Don’t expect eye-popping velocity or imposing physical stature, but his fastball has terrific arm-side run.

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (20-15)

SYRACUSE 3, ROCHESTER 2 (BOX)

A.J. Ewing only had one hit on the night, but it was a big one, as he ripped a two-out single to right field to give Syracuse—playing as the Salt Potatoes for this one—a walk-off win in the bottom of the ninth. Earlier in the game, Rochester twice led by one run before Syracuse evened the score, as Ji Hwan Bae drove in a run in the fourth before Christian Arroyo drove in the team’s second run of the night in the sixth.

Salt Potatoes pitchers were mostly very good, and if you were looking for potential bullpen upgrades in Syracuse after watching the major league Mets yesterday afternoon, Ryan Lambert, Jonathan Pintaro, and Dylan Ross each threw a scoreless inning at the tail end of this game, totaling six strikeouts with zero walks and just one hit allowed by Lambert.

• CF A.J. Ewing: 1-5, RBI
• RF Nick Morabito: 1-4, R, 2 K, SB
• LF Ryan Clifford: 0-4, K
• 1B Christian Arroyo: 2-4, R, 2B, RBI
• 2B Ji Hwan Bae: 1-3, 2B, RBI, K
• DH Cristian Pache: 0-4, 2 K
• 3B Yonny Hernández: 1-4, K
• C Ben Rortvedt: 0-1, BB, K
• PR Kevin Villavicencio: 0-0, R
• SS Jackson Cluff: 0-2, BB, 2 K
• P Bryce Conley: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Mike Baumann: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Daniel Duarte: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• P Ryan Lambert: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Jonathan Pintaro: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Dylan Ross: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Double-A: Binghamton Rumble Ponies (11-19)

HARTFORD 5, BINGHAMTON 3 (BOX)

Binghamton struck first with a run in the bottom of the first, but the Yard Goats tied things up with a run in the third, took the lead with a run in the fifth, and got to Rumble Ponies reliever Kevin Gowdy for three runs, two of them earned, in his one-third of an inning appearance in the top of the seventh. Binghamton scored one in the bottom of that inning and one more in the eighth, but they came up short in their comeback attempt.

• LF Chris Suero: 0-2, R, RBI, BB, K, 2 SB
• RF Jose Ramos: 0-5, 2 K
• C Kevin Parada: 0-4, K
• 3B Nick Lorusso: 2-4, 2 K
• 1B JT Schwartz: 1-4, K
• DH TT Bowens: 0-3, R, BB, K
• CF Matt Rudick: 1-3, 2B, RBI, BB, K
• SS Wyatt Young: 1-4, R, K
• 2B Diego Mosquera: 2-4, K
• P Jordan Geber: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Matt Turner: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Kevin Gowdy: 0.1 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• P Jefry Yan: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Felix Cepeda: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

High-A: Brooklyn Cyclones (7-21)

BOWLING GREEN 9, BROOKLYN 2 (BOX)

Jonathan Jimenez got knocked around early, giving up four of his five runs in the bottom of the first inning, and Bowling Green never really looked back from there. To their credit, the Cyclones answered that inning with a pair of runs in the top of the second, but the bats were mostly silent after that, as they failed to scored another run the rest of the way. Cyclones reliever Garrett Stratton had a rough night, too, giving up three runs in the seventh.

• SS Antonio Jimenez: 0-4, K
• 2B Mitch Voit: 1-4, 2B, K
• C Ronald Hernandez: 0-3, BB, K, E
• RF John Bay: 0-3, BB, 2 K
• DH Daiverson Gutierrez: 1-3, R, 2B, BB
• 3B Colin Houck: 1-4, R, HR, 2 RBI, K
• LF Vincent Perozo: 1-4, E
• 1B Trace Willhoite: 1-4, K
• CF Sam Biller: 1-2, BB, K, SB
• P Jonathan Jimenez: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• P Juan Arnaud: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Garrett Stratton: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• P Hunter Hodges: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Single-A: St. Lucie Mets (13-17)

LAKELAND 4, ST. LUCIE 1 (BOX)

St. Lucie opened the scoring with a run in the top of the first, but like their High-A counterparts, they didn’t do much at the plate after that. Reliever Elwis Mijares was the only Mets pitcher to have a rough outing in this one, but the two runs that starter Frank Camarillo allowed in the bottom of the first proved to be the difference in the game anyway.

• 2B Sam Robertson: 1-4, R, 3B, 2 K
• LF JT Benson: 0-3, BB, K
• RF Randy Guzman: 0-4, 2 K
• 1B AJ Salgado: 1-4, RBI
• DH Julio Zayas: 0-4, 2 K
• CF Simon Juan: 1-4, 2B, 3 K
• C Francisco Toledo: 2-4, K
• SS Branny De Oleo: 0-3, 2 K
• 3B Jamari Baylor: 0-2, BB, K
• P Frank Camarillo: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• P Elwis Mijares: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Ernesto Mercedes: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Rookie: FCL Mets (1-3)

FCL NATIONALS 6, FCL METS 3 (BOX)

• RF Wyatt Vincent: 1-3, R, 2B, BB, K
• 2B Jeremy Rodriguez: 0-4, K
• SS Anthony Frobose: 2-3, R, RBI, BB, 2 SB
• C Yovanny Rodriguez: 1-4, RBI, K, SB, E
• DH Josmir Reyes: 1-2, BB
• CF Bohan Adderley: 1-3, K, 2 SB
• LF Heriberto Rincon: 0-3, K, SB
• 1B Yeider Mindiola: 0-2, BB, K, E
• 3B Vladi Gomez: 1-2, R, 3B, K
• P Roberto Pena: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Jose Lopez: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• P Omar Victorino: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

STAR OF THE NIGHT

The Syracuse bullpen

GOAT OF THE NIGHT

Kevin Gowdy

Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. The Brewers are back in town, as they’ll host the Yankees and Padres over the next week. We’ll start things off this week with a question: Which opposing MLB stadium would you most (and least) like to visit to catch a game?

Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.

You know the drill.

This is now an open thread:

Authors Note: I wrote this article before last night’s nail biter at San Diego. Think of the ninth inning last night as confirmation of what I wrote. It was poetic justice that it occurred in San Diego. You’ll know why if you finish the article.

I continue to resist the urge to parse into various statistics and metrics until they’ve had a chance to stabilize. Gosh I want to dig into Walker’s metrics like nobody’s business. But we haven’t hit that point with most yet, and discipline is required. However, K% supposedly stabilizes around 70 batters faced, and there aren’t too many K oriented pitchers on this roster. Riley O’Brien is right near that threshold, and I’ve been curious what some of the under-the-hood metrics look like with him. We will look together.

Riley was originally drafted by the Tampa Bay organization in 2017 (8th round). He made it as far as AA, when he was traded to the Reds during the infamous 2020 season, in which there was no MiLB season. He opened 2021 at AAA and made a cameo (as in one) MLB appearance with them that year. He was traded early in 2022 to Seattle for the even more infamous PTBNL. He was 27 years old and idled at AAA the whole year. His story was consistent across his MiLB career – his K%-BB% ratio was too poor to suggest MLB success, although his raw stuff was clearly appealing. Interesting, back then, he had an arsenal of Cutter, Sweeper and Change. He came to the Cardinals in a cash consideration trade in November of 2023. That season, at Tacoma, his stats had veered noticeably. Higher K rate, lower BB rate, FIP < 4. I assume that is what the Cardinals saw … a late bloomer with K and BB rates bordering on elite.

I got a chance to see him early the following Spring (2024) and he certainly had impressive stuff, so he passed the eye test on day 1. He got hurt late in camp as I recall and he was out until late July. His 2024 Spring appearances were impressive enough that a month of rehab at AAA brought him to the MLB team. It was a bit rough, and I believe he got dinged up again. He started the 2025 season at Memphis but made it back to MLB in late May. Not everything was roses, but in the aggregate, he had some really nice season totals. FIP 3.61. ERA- 51. FIP- 89 (on those last two, 100 is average and lower is better). He did enough to be included on the short list of pitchers expected to close in 2026, following the trade of Ryan Helsley the previous deadline. You pretty much know the story so far this year, so I won’t repeat. Now we look under the hood.

High level – the results

Off to the left we see Riley’s current season Statcast page. A sea of red. Always a good thing. Without sharing last year’s image with you, I can tell you he has improved Chase%, Whiff% and K% and BB% from 2025 to 2026. All but the Whiff% are now in the elite zone.

What is not to like? One might not care for the below average run value of the off-speed pitches. For the record, he has thrown 2 of those pitches this year (changeups). So, ignore that.

The pitch mix

Down below, you can see the pitches Riley has used and how they get allocated. 58% sinker (who wouldn’t?) averaging 98.3 mph. Note that the sinker has higher than average drop. As in about 10% more drop that MLB average and also about 10% more ride (in on RH batters).

His second-most used pitch is the Sweeper (ST) at 25% usage. Similar to the Sinker (SI), the Sweeper action is well outside the average range, both in sweep (horizontal run) and in drop. Both values are 20% more than MLB average.

His third-most used pitch is reserved for LH batters. Overall, he uses it 16% of the time, but to LH batters that number is closer to 22%. The slider is pretty much an average pitch. As I wrote earlier, he has thrown 2 changeups (CU). Not sure why. Since it looks and acts like his Sinker, I would think it would keep batters honest. Maybe he just hasn’t needed to yet.

Note that early in his career he was Cutter and Sweeper oriented, with a few 4S FBs thrown in. So, he has ditched the Cutter and added a Sinker to replace the 4-seam and sharpened his Sweeper. That, folks, in the St. Louis Cardinals pitching lab for you, right there.

Pitch Shapes

To go another layer deep, let’s look at the movement profiles of these pitches.

You can see the top-scale red for both vertical and horizontal movement associated with his Sinker and Sweeper. That tells me he has elite level movement on two-axes on two different pitches. No wonder he is not a starter. He is just a two-pitch pitcher! Oh, wait. That is what an elite reliever looks like. Am I sure? Here are the pitch shape characteristics of another reliever who is pretty good. Mason Miller.

Of course, Mason is of the Mariano River devastating slider class of closer, but you get the point (I hope).

Ok, one more level down in the data and I’m done.

Deception

A key for a pitcher is to be able to disguise their pitches, which they do a number of ways. One of the most looked at is spin direction. Really sharp-eyed hitters can detect the direction of the ball’s spin. Some spin angles look like red dots (the seams) while other look more like a fan.

In Riley’s case, his two best pitches (SI and ST) have the exact opposite spin direction, meaning the hitter won’t see a difference. By the time a RH hitter detects whether the ball is riding in on him (SI) or floating away (ST), it’s hard to adjust, especially with the velo difference between the two. Part of his success is how these two pitches play off each other.

How the stuff plays

No charts, but some data points. Riley has showed improvement in Stuff+ 4 years running. Last year he was 106, this year 110. That is the look of a pitcher refining, not making leaps. His Location+ has followed the same general trend. Last year, Location+ was commendable 107 and this year has risen to 118. While a 1.5% walk rate is probably not where he will end the year, these numbers suggest his command is not fluky, either.

Historically, O’Brien’s big bugaboo has been walking batters. His 2026 walk rate is currently at an unsustainable 1.5%. BB% rates don’t stabilize until closer to mid-year, so this will be one area where we can expect regression. His K% rate is 28.4% (good) and has reached the stabilization level I referenced earlier. Looking at his career, he could regress a bit, but unlikely to move too much.

The future

If Riley O’Brien was 25 years old, we’d be looking at a long-term closer gig ala. Helsley. But he is not. He is 31 years old, presumably on the downward side of the aging curve. While he has six years of team control (2025 included), he is unlikely to be a long-term closer here (or anywhere). But short-term?

Come the trade deadline, the Cardinals are going to have an interesting choice to make. Closers, especially elite ones, tend to command a handsome dowry around Aug 1. If you look into the Cardinals pipeline, there are a few guys in that line that have “reliever risk” attached to their name, and closer stuff on their Prospect Savant page.

Will the remaining control make him valuable to the Cardinals upcoming window of contention? Or will his age and the burgeoning pitching make him expendable? Almost with certainty, they will ask for and require a king’s ransom to move a player with the kind of stuff and control he has. I would tend to think last year’s Mason Miller trade might be a decent guidepost and if I remember, that took a #1 prospect (De Vries) to pry him off the A’s roster. That might be a little rich for some teams, but probably not much less than would be needed to move him. Bloom is in a win-win with this one.