Category: MLB

There are a number of changes to the Braves’ lineup as they face their first right-handed pitcher of the Red Sox series in Sunday’s finale.

Most notably, the Braves are giving their top two shortstop options in Mauricio Dubon and Ha-Seong Kim the day off, starting Jorge Mateo at short and seventh in the lineup.

Dubon has started 43 of the team’s first 46 games at a variety of positions, becoming a regular outfielder with Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. battling injuries early this season. Kim returned Tuesday from the finger injury which forced him to start the season on the injured list, but is 1-for-17 (.059) in his first five games of the season.

It bears mentioning given how liberally Walt Weiss has used his bench that it’s entirely possible one or both is utilized in a key at-bat or as a defensive replacement on Sunday.

Additionally, Dominic Smith is the designated hitter and hitting sixth, Mike Yastrzemski (who has five RBIs this week after he had six in his first 38 games) is in right field and hitting eighth. Jose Azocar moves to left field to replace Dubon and will hit ninth after his two-double performance in Saturday’s 3-2 loss.

No Braves hitter has faced Red Sox starter Brayan Bello (2-4, 6.46 ERA) more than nine times. Austin Riley has faced him the most and is 5-for-9 (.556) against him with an RBI. Drake Baldwin (2-for-3) and Dubon (3-for-5, three doubles) have also had success against Bello in limited sample sizes. Ozzie Albies is just 1-for-7 (.143) against Bello but has the Braves’ only homer and four RBIs.

Overall, Braves hitters are 18-for-58 (.310) against Bello with six doubles, seven RBIs and 11 strikeouts against four walks.

The Red Sox are running back a similar lineup for Sunday’s series finale. Mickey Gasper is DHing once more after doing so Friday but still hitting second, with Carlos Narvaez replacing him behind the plate and hitting eighth. Nick Sogard also replaces Caleb Durbin at third base, keeping his ninth spot in the Boston lineup.

No Red Sox hitter has faced Braves starter Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.35 ERA) more than six times. Jarren Duran is 1-for-6 (.167) but has the team’s lone homer off the righty. Saturday’s hero Willson Contreras is the only Boston hitter with multiple hits off Holmes (2-for-5).

Overall, members of the Red Sox lineup are a combined 4-for-29 (.138) against Holmes with three RBIs, 10 strikeouts and three walks.

Randy Arozarena isn’t all that streaky, but he is on a streak right now.

Arozarena has been the Mariners best hitter this year. His 148 wRC+ is best among the qualified hitters on the team, and his 1.8 fWAR makes him a top 25 player in the majors. He’s more than half-way to his 2.9 fWAR from last year, in about a quarter of the games. It’s looking like a career year.

But one thing I’ve often said about Arozarena is that he’s streaky. Last year, for instance, Arozarena posted a 136 wRC+ in the first half — also pacing for a career year — before posting a 97 wRC+ in the second half. That’s just Randy, I thought, like this is just Randy now.

I tried to measure that hot-and-cold tendency. I found every batter with at least 2,000 plate appearances since 2021. I found their rolling wOBA and xwOBA over each 100 plate appearance stretch. I then found the standard deviation and coefficient of variation for each player — basically, how much does their performance change relative to their personal average.

Arozarena… showed nothing. He is almost exactly the median player by these measures, meaning he was neither particularly streaky nor particularly non-streaky. His performance is about as normal as it gets. I tried different plate appearance thresholds and different spans of years- nothing. Arozarena has been remarkably consistent in his unremarkable consistency. I guess this was just something I made up in my head.

For instance, here’s one of the 10 least consistent hitters since 2024, Jorge Polanco, presented in 100-PA increments:

You can see Polanco’s line begins at the end of his first 100 plate appearances with the Mariners, where he hovered near average. Then he slumped, got hot, and slumped again… only to come out in 2025 and post one of the best months in team history, before slumping and finishing the year on fire… and now he has a 54 wRC+ with the Mets and an achilles injury.

Here’s Randy, on the other hand: 

And yeah, that looks more consistent. He starts very low, with the unfortunately-timed slump to begin 2024. But then he figures it out, gets hot after joining the Mariners, and lands firmly above average through April 2025. He slumped briefly last May before riding a long hot streak, then returned to average through the end of the season. So, yes, he has been streaky, but all hitters are streaky.

Of course, this is all just pretense to direct your attention to where the lines end on the plot above: The present. We can see by wOBA, Arozarena has performed well most of the year. But we can also see that his xwOBA is much lower. In fact, Arozarena’s .379 wOBA and .327 xwOBA represent one of the five largest gaps of 2026.

The whole profile is different this year. His 41.1% hard hit rate is much less than his career-best rate of 50.6% from 2025. His barrel rate is also more than halved. Most of his contact is now aimed at the ground, spiking his ground ball rate from 42.6% to 54.0% (one of the largest changes in the league). His line is largely the result of sneaking soft grounders through the infield and a .393 BABIP. Maybe Arozarena isn’t a streaky player historically, but this particular streak I expect to reverse course sometime in the near future.

That said, it’s not all bad. Arozarena is still finding better launch angles overall this year. His 35.5% sweet spot rate is a career best. That’s because, by turning toward the ground, he’s all but eliminated pop ups. It’s good to hit the ball in the air because that’s how you hit homers. But aiming too high is an auto-out, whereas even weak grounders come with a minimum .200 batting average. Arozarena is now hitting a lot of high grounders and flares that are good for singles. He’s making a lot less perfect contact, but his imperfect contact has improved dramatically. His xwOBA on non-barrels has leapt 30 points this year (.319), one of the 20-best marks in the majors.

I also think the contact is getting better overall. Arozarena was perhaps the lone example of a guy who’d actually lost bat speed in the early season — he lost so much bat speed that he brought the team average down with him. His bat speed is now back to normal, and his hard hit rate is up to 45% in May from 37% in April.

Arozarena also is swinging more, chasing more, and just overall being a lot more aggressive early in counts. And his swing is a little different, too. He’s both getting out in front of pitches, and also angling his bat more to the opposite field. He’s also really excited about fastballs up this year for some reason:

And so a lot of his hits look like this:

I’m really not sure what to make of it. Sometimes with these things I know what I’m going to say and where I’m going to land. Sometimes I find that along the way. But yeah, no, this is just bizarre more than anything.

Randy in 2026 looks like a fundamentally different hitter. I’ve always thought of him as kind of a wanna-be three true outcome guy — working counts, letting the ball travel, swinging hard and up. And now, for whatever reason, he’s become more of a slasher, swinging early and often and at anything close. His strikeout rate is down, and his walk rate is unchanged, which is good. But the lesser contact quality is concerning, and I don’t see him getting to 20 homers this year without some changes. He’s given himself over to the whims of BABIP, and we’ll see how far that takes him.

Still, the great irony here is that Arozarena’s xwOBA is .327 — identical to his mark last year (and .005 off the year before). So while I’m skeptical of his status as a top 25 hitter, he’s probably still in the top 50, and certainly in the top 100.

I guess that’s where my misplaced notion of his streakiness comes from. You just never really know what you’re gonna get with Arozarena. One day he’s a slugger. The next he’s slapping the ball the other way. One day he goes diving into the wall in left for an out. The next he’s walking toward the gap with runners on base. Consistently surprising. Surprisingly consistent. That’s just Randy.

In recent years, baseball fans have come to accept the phrase “Because baseball” to describe certain games. Generally, it involves a situation where you look at the matchup on paper and assume that Team A will dominate Team B because of a very favorable matchup. But then Team B wins. And we say, because baseball. It’s a short phrase that tries to explain how sometimes everything looks one way but happens the other. Those games occur, of course, in all sports. If you’ve ever won your NFL Survivor pool, it was because of a game that could have been described as because football. Or your NCAA pool. That guy who is sweating a Mountain West game at 2 a.m. and knows a little something about every team in the tournament lost his champion in the round of 32 when some school that no one has ever heard of just beat the reigning ACC champion on a late three. Because basketball.

If we allow for because baseball to explain things, then there is also a world where it has a total opposite. This is the opposite quadrant on an X,Y graph. In this quadrant, we have Team A that’s been struggling a bit. They are on the road, though as close to home as they can be and still be considered a “road” team. Their starting pitcher is prone to the long ball. Team B on the other hand, they are at home and are surging. They are playing with a ton of confidence. Their starting pitcher. Is he an Ace? Or is he just on a heater? Too soon to tell, but even a good pitcher on a heater is a handful. Team B also thrives on the long ball. This is a bad matchup for Team A.

This was not the matchup you were looking for. Move along, now. It sure would be nice to come off of this road trip with four wins in nine games. So shake the Etch-a-Sketch, forget this one happened and move along. This has been a tough trip. You certainly hoped to win at least five on this trip. But it’s really going to be sick if you only get three. So sleep tight and bounce back. Let’s keep little brother down a little longer. They can try to do their little Phoenix rising thing on someone’s else’s dance floor.

This trip, at times, has exposed that the Cubs pitching staff has been leeched of so much depth that pitching is not anywhere near a strength, even with a stellar defense behind them. None of us are surprised by that, either. It looks like some more relievers will surface soon. Jordan Wicks is getting healthy, but has never established himself at the major league level. But, at least it’s another live arm. Ben Brown has emerged and is a reason for some optimism. He is also a reminder not to flush Wicks. I’ve said this many times and in many contexts. The road to the top is never guaranteed and it’s not necessarily a straight line. Both Wicks and Brown were once highly thought of prospects. Brown is now rebuilding some of his in front of our eyes. Maybe Wicks can be a piece.

This team is going to need more than what they’ve got. It’s going to be interesting to watch this front office wrestle with addressing that. This team in no way looks like it is one or two pieces away from a sure World Series team, much less champion. But it does look like a team that could get hot and could be dangerous and maybe if things fall just right they have a shot. The kind of trade(s) that would significantly boost this team’s chances tend to hurt in terms of prospect capital. This organization has a ton of depth, but their top talent doesn’t exactly leave other talent evaluators drooling.

But that’s still at least a few weeks and probably more than a month away. So this team has to roll with what it’s got and it has to find ways to win games. More often than not, that’s going to rest on the shoulders of the offense. So this team has to get right and soon. Why not Sunday?

Three Positives:

• Miguel Amaya had a single and a solo homer.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong had a walk and a late two-run homer.
• Alex Bregman had a single and a double.

Game 46, May 16: White Sox 8, Cubs 3 (29-17)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Alex Bregman (.035). 2-4, 2B
• Hero: Miguel Amaya (.012). 2-4, HR, RBI, R
• Sidekick: Ethan Roberts (.002). 2 IP, 6 BF, BB, 3 K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Jameson Taillon (-.311). 5 IP, 8 H, BB, 8 ER, 2K (L 2-3)
• Goat: Ian Happ (-.079). 0-4
• Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.035). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: Miguel Vargas homered with two on and no outs in the bottom of the first for the first three runs of the game. (.172)

*Cubs Play of the Game: With a runner on first and one out in the seventh, the Cubs down six, Alex Bregman doubled. (.024)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 45 Winner: Carson Kelly received 108 of 173 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch/Shōta Imanaga +13
• Michael Conforto +12
• Alex Bregman +6.5
• Ben Brown/Ian Happ +5.5
• Caleb Thielbar -6
• Phil Maton -7
• Matt Shaw -10
• Dansby Swanson -11
• Seiya Suzuki -18

Current Win Pace: 102.1 wins

Up Next: The third and final game of the series Sunday afternoon. Colin Rea (4-2, 4.68, 42.1 IP) starts for the seventh time this year. He’s coming off of a rough start in Atlanta, allowing five runs on seven hits and a walk in just 4.1 innings. Significantly better both at home and at night, so hopefully the Cubs offense gets things going quickly in this one.

33-year-old Erick Fedde has been a mixed bag so far this year. He’s 0-4 but has a 3.77 ERA in 43 innings across eight starts. He also didn’t win across his final nine appearances last year, but eight of those were relief outings. It’s been a long time since he’s won, let’s keep it that way. Last time out, he faced the Royals and allowed two runs on six hits over five innings but didn’t get a decision. The former first round pick of the Nationals from 2014 (18th overall) out of UNLV has been better during the day and much better at home.

This is no gimme. Be the better team. Get a win.

Go Cubs!

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For baseball drama and storylines, it doesn’t get much better than the Subway Series, so the rubber match between the New York Yankees and New York Mets naturally headlines today’s slate.

My MLB player props target that matchup with a wager on Cody Bellinger, and I also see Kevin Gausman dealing in Detroit to ease the pressure on the Toronto Blue Jays.

Read on for my Top 3 MLB prop picks for the May 17 action.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Cody Bellinger	Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	-110
Kevin Gausman	Over 5.5 strikeouts	-112
Mookie Betts	Over 1.5 total bases	+105

Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110)

Cody Bellinger has come alive this month after a slow April, and that’s helping to fuel a New York Yankees offense that’s in the Top 5 in runs and OBP. He’s posted a .304 batting average in May, to go with a 1.010 OPS.

Bellinger chipped in with an RBI double in the Bronx Bombers’ win on Friday night, and I like this matchup against New York Mets starter Freddy Peralta.

Though Peralta has been steady so far this year, Bellinger has had the upper hand in their head-to-head duels, with a career 6-for-14 record against the Mets righty, including a double, a homer and three RBIs.

• Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, SNY

Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-112)

The Toronto Blue Jays are fighting to stay afloat after a barrage of injuries, and that makes every Kevin Gausman start even more valuable.

The veteran’s strikeout tallies have tailed off after racking up 21 Ks across his first two outings of 2026, but this O/U number feels too low and I’m jumping on the Over against a Detroit Tigers lineup that he’s dominated over the years.

Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Zach McKinstry are a combined 6-for-36 against Gausman, while striking out 11 times. The Toronto ace has a 3.16 career ERA against Detroit, and I’m counting on a bounce-back effort here after a rocky start against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday.

• Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DSN, Sportsnet

Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases (+105)

After the Los Angeles Dodgers exploded for 15 runs yesterday against the cross-city Angels, I’m buying into a key piece of that offense tonight. Mookie Betts served up a homer and a single in last night’s rout, and that’s the surest sign yet that his oblique strain is behind him.

It was Betts’ second dinger of the week, and I like these odds for 2+ bases here, especially with Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez just returning from the 15-day IL.

Though Betts has struggled to post elite numbers this year, there’s been no dip in his exit velocity and he’s done his best work against righties on the road. Look for that trend to continue tonight.

• Time: 4:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNLA, KCOP-FOX11+

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Jack Flaherty’s strikeout total is set too high today against the Toronto Blue Jays, and I plan to take full advantage. 

Read on to see why with my Blue Jays vs. Tigers predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, May 17. 

Blue Jays vs Tigers predictions

Blue Jays vs Tigers best bet: Jack Flaherty Under 4.5 strikeouts (+115)

Collecting five strikeouts against the Toronto Blue Jays is a big ask of any pitcher, let alone a struggling one like Jack Flaherty. 

The Detroit Tigers have lost four straight starts of Flaherty’s, and he’s seen his ERA balloon from 3.47 to 5.74 in that span.

His strikeout numbers are down in that stretch as well, recording four or fewer in three of those outings.

To suggest he’ll surpass this number against the Jays, who own a league-low 18.2% K-rate, feels rich to me. 

Additionally, Flaherty owns a lowly 7% chase rate this season. 

COVERS INTEL: Flaherty owns a 5.21 xERA in 2026, and has completed five innings just once in his last five starts.

Blue Jays vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)

Yohendrick Pinango continues to rack up the hits. He owns a .364 batting average, while recording a hit in 11 of his 15 career outings. 

For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll take the Jays on the moneyline. They own the advantage on the mound with Kevin Gausman facing Flaherty, who hasn’t won a game all season and has seen his Tigers drop five straight contests he’s started. 

Blue Jays vs Tigers SGP

• Jack Flaherty Under 4.5 strikeouts
• Yohendrick Pinango Over 0.5 hits
• Jays moneyline

Blue Jays vs Tigers home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+405)

Despite Flaherty allowing four home runs in his last four starts, I’m making this a half unit wager this afternoon. 

The Jays haven’t been hitting many home runs lately. However, Kazuma Okamoto still remains the best bet to launch one. 

Okamoto has a team-high 10 home runs this year, while ranking in the 95th percentile in hard hit rate.

The Jays slugger owns a .295 AVG and a .590 SLG against the four-seam fastball, which is Flaherty’s most used pitch against right-handed batters.

Blue Jays vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -130 | Detroit +110
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 | Detroit +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Blue Jays vs Tigers trend

The Blue Jays have hit the Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Tigers.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Tigers and game info

Blue Jays vs Tigers latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Tigers weather

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Gavin Sheets and Nick Castellanos hit homers off Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert and the San Diego Padres earned a 7-4 win at T-Mobile Park on Saturday night. Sheets opened the scoring with a solo home run in the top of the second inning to put the Padres up 1-0. With San Diego leading 2-0, Castellanos hit with a three-run home run in the top of the fourth inning to make the score 5-0. That was all the run support Walker Buehler would need. The right-hander allowed two runs on five hits over five innings of work. Buehler walked two and struck out six. Rodolfo Duran tacked on two runs in the top of the seventh inning with a two-run homerun, which was also his first hit in MLB. San Diego will look to complete the sweep of Seattle today at 4:20 p.m.

Padres News:

• San Diego solved its roster crunch – for now – by adding Matt Waldron to the injured list and recalled Alek Jacob from Triple-A El Paso. Jacob will likely be returned to add Lucas Giolito to the roster when he makes his start today.

• Rodolfo Duran recorded his first MLB hit and did it in style with a two-run home run. He almost added a second home run – int the same game – but Julio Rodriguez robbed him of that feat.

• Manny Machado is never one to get too worried about results, so it is no surprise he is confident his slow start will turn around.

• David Morgan was sent to the minors to work on his command issues that suddenly popped up this season. To this point the struggles have continued, which will keep him on the farm until he can make the necessary improvements.

• Mason Miller is one of, if not the most, dominant pitchers in MLB. He is a precious commodity for the Padres, and they are trying to get the most out of him while at the same time protecting him to ensure he is healthy and effective for the entire season.

All four Dodgers minor league affiliates won on Saturday.

Player of the day

Alex Freeland homered for a second straight day, and liked it so much he did it twice on Saturday. After Friday’s homer was hit from the right side, Freeland on Saturday homered twice while batting left-handed, and also singled.

Freeland scored three runs and drove in three.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

The Comets scored in five consecutive innings in a second straight rout of the Albuquerque Isotopes (Rockies).

In addition to Freeland’s two home runs, Jack Suwinski helped break the game open with a three-run homer in the fifth inning. Suwinski has 19 extra-base hits (nine home runs, 10 doubles) in his last 23 games.

Shortstop Noah Miller also had three hits. Catcher Eliézer Alfonzo doubled, singled, and drove in two, giving him six hits over his last two games.

For the second consecutive day, Oklahoma City activated one of the Ryan brothers to start. On Friday it was River Ryan who pitched four innings in his first start in five weeks. Saturday was Ryder Ryan returning to the rotation after missing over three weeks with a back injury. He pitched two scoreless innings with three strikeouts and just one single allowed.

Kiké Hernández played all nine innings in center field on Saturday and was had two walks in his five plate appearances.

Double-A Tulsa

The Drillers hit four home runs, erasing an early 4-0 deficit to beat the Springfield Cardinals.

Josue De Paula has exactly one hit in all five games of this series, including a home run on Saturday. Zyhir Hope homered, as did Jake Gelof. Kyle Nevin also homered and reached base four times with three hits and a walk.

Starter Adam Serwinowski allowed four runs on a grand slam in the third inning, but gave up nothing else through five innings. Serwinowski struck out a season-high nine and walked only one.

High-A Great Lakes

The Loons trailed 5-1 after six innings, then scored once in the seventh and five runs in the eighth to stun the West Michigan Whitecaps (Tigers). The fateful eighth for Great Lakes included four singles, a triple by right fielder Samuel Muñoz, two walks, and a run-scoring wild pitch.

Mike Sirota and Jose Izarra each had two hits, including run-scoring singles for both in the eighth inning.

Alex Makarewich recorded six outs in a scoreless outing that stretched from the seventh into the ninth, then left-hander Matt Lanzendorfer entered with one on and the tying run at the plate and struck out his only two batters faced, the first professional save for the 2025 15th-round draft pick.

Left-hander Justin Chambers tied a career high with five strikeouts in his 2 1/3 innings, his longest outing of the season. Chambers allowed a run on two hits and also walked two. Free passes have been a problem for the 20-year-old, who was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in January 2024 for left-hander Bryan Hudson. Chambers has 15 walks and 7.82 ERA in 10 1/3 innings this season to go with his 19 strikeouts, but he’s been better of late. In his first seven appearances this season, Chambers had a 26.3-percent walk rate and more walks (10) than strikeouts (seven). But in his five games since the left-hander has a 17.2-percent walk rate with five walks and 12 strikeouts.

Class-A Ontario

Chase Harlan had four hits in the Tower Buzzers’ win over the San Jose Giants, including a double, three singles, and a walk.

Emil Morales homered, while middle infielders Mairo Martinus and Joendry Vargas each had three hits.

Arizona Complex League

Peter Heubeck, who started 16 games last year for Double-A Tulsa before getting injured in July, made his 2026 season debut on Saturday in the rookie league at Camelback Ranch. The 23-year-old struck out all three batters he faced in a one-inning start, the first game back for the 2021 third-round draft pick.

Transaction

Triple-A: Ryder Ryan was activated off the injured list.

Saturday scores

• Oklahoma City 10, Albuquerque 2
• Tulsa 10, Springfield 6
• Great Lakes 7, West Michigan 5
• Ontario 9, San Jose 5

Sunday schedule

• 10:05 a.m. PT: Great Lakes (Brooks Auger) vs. West Michigan (Gabriel Reyes)
• 11 a.m.: Tulsa (Roque Gutierrez) vs. Springfield (Braden Davis)
• 12:35 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Logan Allen) at Albuquerque (Erasmo Ramírez)
• 1:05 p.m.: Ontario (Cam Leiter) vs. San Jose (TBA)

The San Francisco Giants had gone three games without a hit with a runner in scoring position. The offense just couldn’t string together anything of substance. They had become reliant on an inside-the-park-homer or solo shot from Luis Arraez, which is like relying on lightning strikes to be your home’s main provider of electricity.

Unsurprisingly, the Giants lost all three of those games. 

The spate of innings without a RISP knock dated back to Jung Hoo Lee’s 7th inning double last Tuesday, and including the first two innings on Saturday’s contest in which a lead-off double by Willy Adames was promptly squandered in the 2nd, extended to 31 consecutive offensive frames, until it was mercifully snapped with a Casey Schmitt bloop with Jung Hoo Lee standing at second.

But in true 2026 Giants fashion, even that long-awaited hit wasn’t enough to score a run.

True to form, the bloop blooped, spinning indecisively in the airspace above shallow right-center, buffeted and carried by the winds coursing from left to right, as outfielder Nick Bolte charged in. Would he catch it? Would it find grass? Lee couldn’t be sure, and by the time it fell back to earth, the only option was a 90-foot progression to third. Station-to-station — sounds about right for this team. Laughable too, how this team found a way to technically snap their skid while still managing to hold onto the spirit of the slump. This feeling of disheartened disbelief grew even more palpable when this strike-3 call from Luis Severino to Rafael Devers was upheld. 

But just when this long rope of recent ineffectiveness, stretching from Chavez Ravine to the banks of the American River, began to tighten around the line-up’s neck, Willy Adames decided to think opposite field, and slapped a first-pitch single into right field to plate two runs. 

They had done it! The streak demon banished! The floodgates opened and the river of run-production and efficiency flowed!

Not exactly. Adames was thrown out at second to end the inning on the play. And while the offense did an impressive job of accruing 17 at-bats with runners in scoring position, they managed just three hits and left 11 runners stranded on base. Eight of their 11 strikeouts came with a runner in scoring position. Five of Severino’s seven strikeouts came in situations when a ball-in-play would’ve either advanced the runner or plated another run. 

This is a happy recap, I promise. San Francisco did win this game 6 to 4, but this inefficiency with runners threatening and lack of situational hitting meant that, despite all the opportunity and semblance of control, a rough outing from a reliever, one decisive swing from an opponent’s bad, turned a breezy weekend win into a bit of a nail-biter.

With a 6-1 lead, Erik Miller, in his first game back from the IL, walked the first two batters he faced in the 8th (extending Nick Kurtz’s on-base streak to 39 games). Tony Vitello chose to swap him for Caleb Kilian against the right-handed Brent Rooker and after the mound visit, the call to the bullpen, the warm-up pitches, Kilian served up a first pitch slider that Rooker obliterated.

The Boog booged it — walk, walk, 3-run dinger, and a stressful ballgame. While it didn’t have the same effect as Kurtz’s Boog from Friday, it was a timely reminder that few leads are safe, that there’s never a strategic time to not-score or not pad a lead. 

If San Francisco just relied on the two hits with RISP that scored runs (Adames, and Matt Chapman’s RBI double in the 7th), Rooker’s 3-run shot would’ve proved decisive and so so so depressing. 

Thank god for Casey Schmitt and homers. Schmitt’s two homer game provided the other half of the Giants’ 6-run output. His team-leading seventh homer of the year came off Severino in the 1st,  and his eighth, pinged off the right field foul pole in the 5th to give San Francisco a 5-0 lead at the time.  

A diverse offensive portfolio. Singles with runners on base and homers after walks — that’s what we’ve been missing. Someone alert Buster and Tony that I’ve figured it out!

Good pitching helps too, and Trevor McDonald appears to be a good pitcher. In his third start of the year (and fifth of his career), he earned his second (and fourth) quality start, allowing just one earned run over 6.2 IP while needing just 90 pitches to do it.

The secret: throw strikes, make them hit the ball. The secret: keep the ball grounded when they hit the ball. With his dive-y sinker leading the charge, McDonald induced 9 groundball outs. Two of the A’s five hits on the day didn’t leave the infield. The two doubles he surrendered came with two outs and nobody on base. 

The secret: field your position well. In the 5th, with a runner on and a run already scored, McDonald won a 3-2 battle against Kurtz with a heavy inside sinker that the big boy recognized but couldn’t help but offer at. Immediately after, Shea Langeliers lined the third out into McDonald’s glove.

He then induced a stylish 1-6-3 double play in the 7th to erase a lead-off HBP. 

The Rooker 3-run shot upped the heart rate for sure, but ultimately thanks to Schmitt, just enough knocks with runners in scoring position, and an excellent outing from Trevor McDonald, San Francisco evened the series in West Sacramento.

Meet the Mets

The Mets beat the Yankees 6-3 to even the Subway Series at one game apiece. It was a solid group effort, especially from the bullpen, highlighted by Luke Weaver escaping an inherited bases loaded, nobody out jam in the seventh to protect the lead.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, Faith and Fear in Flushing, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post, The Athletic

Clay Holmes, who suffered a tibial fracture in Friday’s game, went on the injured list yesterday and reliever Joey Gerber was called up to take his place on the roster. Holmes will not need surgery and his injury is not expected to be season-ending. However, he’ll be out 6-8 weeks and is unlikely to return before August, which certainly complicates things for the Mets’ pitching outlook moving forward.

Gerber is just with the Mets until they need a starter to fill Holmes’ spot. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com ran down the options the Mets have to replace Holmes in the rotation, including Tobias Myers, who was mentioned as a possibility by Carlos Mendoza during his pregame press conference.

Left-hander Anderson Severino was also briefly with the Mets on the taxi squad yesterday, but ultimately no roster move was made to activate him, as a player who had been feeling ill felt better ahead of last night’s game.

Juan Soto continues to be banged up, but is playing through his various minor ailments for now.

Veteran reliever Luke Jackson opted out of his minor league deal with the Mets yesterday.

Jon Matlack and Jerry Koosman fondly remember 1973 Met Buzz Capra, who passed away this week.

Around the National League East

The Nationals unleashed a 13-3 drubbing on the Orioles, powered by a seven-run seventh inning.

Similarly, the Marlins erupted for a whopping eight runs in the 10th inning to beat the Rays 10-5 in extra innings.

The Phillies blanked the Pirates 6-0 behind another fantastic outing by Cristopher Sánchez, who struck out 13 to maintain MLB’s longest active scoreless streak among pitchers.

Willson Contreras delivered a clutch go-ahead homer in the eighth, as the Braves suffered a dramatic 3-2 loss to the Red Sox that included Aroldis Chapman escaping a bases-loaded jam in the ninth to end the game.

Around Major League Baseball

The Red Sox placed shortstop Trevor Story on the injured list with a sports hernia. The team had been calling it a right groin injury, but Story recently underwent scans that revealed the more serious problem that may keep him sidelined for several weeks.

Tommy Pham, recently let go by the Mets, signed a minor league deal with the Orioles.

Travis Sawchik of MLB.com took a look at an interesting phenomenon: across baseball, as velocity keeps going up, the average gap between pitchers’ minimum fast ball velocity and maximum fastball velocity over the course of the season keeps shrinking. In other words, minimum fastball velocity is going up more than maximum fastball velocity, as pitchers seek to throw max effort at all times for a shorter period of time.

Blue Jays pitcher José Berríos will undergo surgery on Wednesday to repair his fractured elbow and also to address potential loose bodies. Depending on whether there is ligament damage, Berríos could be sidelined for a couple of months or much longer.

Dodgers’ Blake Snell will also undergo surgery to address loose bodies in his elbow and could be out for awhile.

Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com runs down a list of players who are surprisingly leading their teams in hitting.

This Date in Mets History

Edgardo Alfonzo, Roberto Alomar, and Mo Vaughn turned a 5-4-3 triple play against the Padres on this date in 2002.

MOOSIC — At PNC Field, home of the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, the pitch speed on the scoreboard rounds up.

So when Gerrit Cole threw a four-seam fastball 99.6 mph in the top of the third inning of his latest rehab start Saturday night against the Syracuse Mets, “100” popped up on the board. Later, in the fifth inning, he hit 99 mph with another four-seamer.

“Just the progression, getting stronger and stronger every outing,” Cole said. “It’s been coming the last few weeks.”

Those pitches were the highlights of a solid performance on Saturday by the six-time All-Star and 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner as he moved another step closer to returning to the New York Yankees from reconstructive elbow surgery on March 11, 2025. Cole went 5.1 innings and allowed one run and six hits with one walk and six strikeouts. He threw 86 pitches, 56 for strikes.

“Felt really good,” Cole said. “Some good velocity tonight, some good locations. Some good quick innings and some innings that tested us.”

Going in, Cole was expected to throw about 80 pitches. So when he was at 83 after five innings, there was plenty of speculation that would be it for him.

However, Cole came out for the top of the sixth. He retired Christian Arroyo on a groundout to third on one pitch, then got ahead 0-2 on erstwhile Yankees prospect Eric Wagaman. That’s when RailRiders manager Shelley Duncan emerged from the dugout to pull Cole. Turns out 86 was the number.

In each of his first five rehab starts, his pitch count has increased — 44 on April 17th, 52 on April 23rd, 60 on April 29th, 69 on May 5th, and 77 on May 10th. “So far, so good, it’s been a good progression,” Cole said. “Pitch count is steadily increasing, recovery has been good and velocity and command are steadily increasing as well.”

Duncan thought Cole looked really good. He felt he was aggressive in the strike zone and had command of all his pitches. “He was doing what Gerrit does best,” the manager said. “He was hitting spots, working his pitches off each other, making it hard for the opposing hitters. It was a lot of fun watching him.”

Catcher Ali Sánchez agreed.

“He was commanding the fastball, it was good velo on it,” Sánchez said. “The two-seam was moving good. The sinker was good. Everything was working really good. Curveball, slider, changeup to lefties. He threw some good ones. He mixed it to righties, too. It was a great job by him.”

Cole retired the first seven batters he faced, including strikeouts of Ryan Clifford to end the top of the first and Cristian Pache to begin the third. Then things got a bit interesting.

Jackson Cluff and Kevin Parada followed with one-out singles. With two outs, Ji Hwan Bae hit a groundball wide of first base that Ernesto Martínez Jr. fielded and flipped to Cole covering. However, the speedy Bae beat Cole to the bag and was safe on an infield single. Cluff never stopped running on the play and headed for home. Cole turned and threw to the plate, but Cluff just got his hand in under the Sanchez’s tag to score and make it 2-1, Scranton.

Sánchez had hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the second to put the RailRiders in front.

“A guy scored from second base on a groundball to the first baseman,” Cole said. “I made a really good play overall, but they’re really fast. I anticipated him coming around to home and made a strong throw. But we just didn’t convert an out or prevent a run. It was a little frustrating.”

To end the inning, Cole struck out Clifford. It was during that at-bat that he threw the 99.6-mph four-seam fastball.

With one out in the fourth, Wagaman doubled. Yonny Hernandez followed with a single to left. Wagaman tried to score, but Jonathan Ornelas threw him out at the plate. Pache followed with a single that sent Hernandez to third, but Cole struck out Cluff to strand the runners.

He made it three straight strikeouts when he got Parada looking and Nick Morabito swinging to open the Syracuse fifth. Cole then got ahead of Bae 0-2, but he threw four consecutive balls to walk him, including another 99-mph four-seam fastball on ball one.

“I was repeating the changeup a few times,” Cole said. “For the most part that was good. That, unfortunately, was one package of two in a row where I lost the zone a little bit and then didn’t make a good pitch 3-2.”

Clifford flew out to right field for the final out of the fifth. Cole then threw the three pitches in the sixth to conclude his sixth rehab start. On the night, he averaged 97 mph on the heater and induced 13 combined swings and misses from his full arsenal — including seven from his changeup alone.

Well after Cole exited, Syracuse rallied to win in 10 innings, 6-2. The Mets tied it in the eighth inning, then struck for four runs in the top of the 10th.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone has told reporters in New York that Cole likely will need one more rehab start before returning to the majors. Despite Max Fried recently being placed on the injured list and expected to miss at least a month with a left elbow bone bruise, the Yankees won’t rush Cole back. Elmer Rodríguez was recalled to take Fried’s spot and will start the Subway Series matinee today at Citi Field.

“That’s a challenge, but my job is to stay focused on my progression and my start from week to week,” Cole said. “Max obviously is an integral part of our rotation and our team. It’s unfortunate, but thankfully we have good depth in order to cover him in the interim. In situations like this, it’s just important to remain focused on what their job is. I fall into that category as well.”

Whether that likely final start will be with the RailRiders again remains to be seen. They have a series in Allentown, Pa., against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs next week.

“I’m sure Cash (GM Brian Casheman), Boonie, the whole group will talk about his outing here along with Gerrit and make a decision,” Duncan said. “We’ll be ready if it is here. If not, we’ll have the privilege of watching him in the big leagues.”

Cole admits he is itching to return to the majors. He pointed out that when you include the offseason following the 2024 season, it has been more than 17 months that he has pitched in the bigs.

“No matter how you slice it, that’s a long time,” Cole said. “I feel like we’ve executed one step at a time and it’s been going really well. I just take it week to week. There’s always something to work on. I’m never really satisfied.”

The Mariners lost again last night. Logan Gilbert didn’t have his best stuff again, and Dan Wilson got sent home early by the umpires.

Rivalry weekend is a wash at this point, but the Mariners will attempt to salvage a win in the series anyway on NBC and Peacock at 4:20pm.

In Mariners news…

• The young season isn’t actually so young anymore, and performances are starting to look more and more sustainable with each passing week. Some players appear to have bounced back from relative down years in 2025, including Mariners starter George Kirby.

Around the league…

• Mets pitcher Clay Holmes is headed to the 15-day IL with a broken leg after taking a 111.1 mph line drive off his leg on Friday night.
• Toronto Blue Jays starter José Berríos will be getting surgery on his right elbow on Wednesday. The severity of the injury won’t be known until Berríos is on the table, but it seems even in the best case scenario, the team will be without his services for the remainder of 2026.
• Travis Sawchik at mlb.com wrote about how the consistent rise in fastball velocity may be due in large part to many pitchers slowest fastballs being faster than ever before, rather than fastballs getting that much faster year after year.
• David Adler at mlb.com wrote a very comprehensive profile on Kevin McGonigle and his unique plate approach.
• The St. Louis Cardinals and manager Oli Marmol have fully embraced the power of their shirtless fans.
• The hits keep coming and they don’t stop coming. The beatings will continue until morale improves. Etc. Etc.

• The Boston Red Sox placed infielder Trevor Story on the IL yesterday and called up utility infielder Nick Sogard, who has had a promising start to his season in Triple-A Worcester.
• A baseball game is a beautiful place to meet someone new, or run into an old friend.

Saturday saw a lot of action in the Atlanta Braves farm system. Michael Martinez homered for the second straight day, as his red hot start to the FCL season continues. The entire Augusta lineup had big days, as did David McCabe, Manuel Campos, and Yamvier Carrero. On the pitching side, we got to see great efforts out of Garrett Baumann, Cedric De Grandpre, Zach Royse, and Gensi Angeles, as the quartet allowed just three earned runs over 27 innings on the day.

Durham Bulls 11, Gwinnett Stripers 2

• Luke Williams, DH/P: 1-4, HR, R, RBI, .242/.303/.418
• Brett Wisely, 2B: 2-4, 2B, BB, .310/.377/.500
• Lucas Braun, SP: 0.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 4.85 ERA

Box Score

Statcast

This one was ugly early, as starter Lucas Braun failed to make it out of the first inning. Braun was able to record just two outs before allowing four runs on four hits and a walk. Rolddy Munoz pitched a scoreless next inning and a third, before giving way to Elieser Hernandez. Hernandez came in and ate five innings, though allowed five runs – including a pair of homers. After a scoreless Joel Payamps inning, they put in position player Luke Williams to pitch the ninth, and he went on to allow the final two runs to score.

Prior to coming in to pitch, Williams spent the game at DH, where he blasted a 105.7 MPH home run. He and Brett Wisely were about the only two players in the Stripers lineup who were productive on Saturday, as Wisely recorded a single, double, and walk in five trips to the dish. Brewer Hicklen and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. singles accounted for the remainder of the Stripers hits. Keirsey also drew a walk to reach base twice, and Jim Jarvis had two walks in the loss.

Columbus Clingstones 6, Knoxville Smokies 2

• David McCabe, 1B: 2-4, HR, 2B, 1 R, 3 RBI, .272/.361/.621
• Patrick Clohisy, LF: 2-3, BB, R, SB, .267/.339/.416
• Lizandro Espinoza, CF: 2-3, 2 R, RBI, SB, .295/.415/.562
• Garrett Baumann, SP: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, 5.92 ERA

Box Score

This season has been a bit of a struggle for Garrett Baumann in his first experience in the upper minors, but on Saturday he put together his best start of the season. Baumann set new season high marks for going both seven innings and striking out 11. In total he allowed six hits and a walk, and the two runs he gave up were both unearned, while he picked up 13 whiffs. Luis Vargas and Tyler LaPorte were each able to toss a scoreless frame to close this one out, and each one struck out a pair of batters to give Columbus pitchers 15 strikeouts on the day.

The top part of the order won this game for the Clingstones, as each of the first three hitters in the lineup had a multi-hit day. David McCabe’s two hits went for his 11th homer and third double of the season, and he picked up three runs batted in. Patrick Clohisy went two for three with a walk, stolen base, and run scored, while Lizandro Espinoza was two for three with a steal, run batted in, and two runs scored. In total seven members of the lineup had base hits, and eight of the nine reached base safely in the win.

Rome Emperors 1, Brooklyn Cyclones 0

• Dixon Williams, 2B: 1-3, 2B, .297/.426/.541
• John Gil, DH: 0-3, BB, R, SB, .274/.376/.452
• Cedric De Grandpre, SP: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K, 5.13 ERA

Box Score

Cedric De Grandpre’s season of ups and downs continued on Saturday night with a very much up start. Cedric went seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits and no walks and striking out 10 with 14 whiffs. This gives him three excellent outings with three poor outings, as well as two mediocre outings on the season. Drew Christo came on to pitch the final two innings and struck out three to preserve the combined shutout. Combined Cedric and Christo allowed three hits and no walks with 13 strikeouts.

As good as the pitching for Rome was, the offense was equally non-existent. The Emperors managed a run on just two hits and three walks. A Dixon Williams double and Logan Braunschweig single accounted for the hits, while John Gil, Eric Hartman, and Mac Guscette were able to draw the walks. Gil scored the lone run, and had a stolen base – as did Hartman and Braunschweig.

Augusta GreenJackets 11, Myrtle Beach Pelicans 1

• Luis Guanipa, CF: 1-4, BB, HBP, R, RBI, .305/.352/.511
• Nick Montgomery, C: 2-5, 2B, BB, 2 R, RBI, .213/.341/.387
• Cooper McMurray, 1B: 2-3, HR, 2 BB, R, 4 RBI, .188/.339/.307
• Zach Royse, SP: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 4.21 ERA

Box Score

Zach Royse turned in a dominant start in this one, going a career best eight innings and allowing just one run on four hits and no walks. Royse picked up eight strikeouts, to go with 15 whiffs, and needed just 90 pitches to get through eight innings. Styven Paez pitched a scoreless ninth inning to finish this one off, and dropped his ERA to 0.71 on the season.

The Augusta offense got going in the top of the first, when they put up four runs, and never looked back as they cruised to an easy win. Every member of the lineup got on base, and eight of the nine got on multiple times in the win. In fact the only guy not to factor into the storyline was Tate Southisene, who received a rare day off here. The star of the game had to be Cooper McMurray, who homered, singled, walked twice, and batted in four runs. If it wasn’t McMurray, then Dallas Macias is the next option after he went recorded two doubles, two hit by pitches, a walk, run scored, and two batted in. Nick Montgomery singled, doubled, walked, scored a run, and batted two in. Luis Guanipa singled, walked, and got hit by a pitch. Alex Lodise singled, walked, stole a base, and scored a pair of runs. Juan Mateo singled twice, walked, and stole a base. Even Dalton McIntyre had a pair of singles and a walk, while Junior Garcia drew a pair of walks.

FCL Rays 10, FCL Braves 9

• Michael Martinez, LF: 1-4, HR, 2 R, RBI, .375/.522/.781
• Manuel Campos, DH: 3-5, 3B, R, RBI, 3 SB, .200/.391/.286
• Diego Tornes, CF: 1-4, 2 RBI, .273/.273/.273
• Yamvier Carrero, SS: 3-5, R, RBI, SB, .308/.471/.308
• Gensi Angeles, SP: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 0.00 ERA

Box Score

Statcast

The final score isn’t truly indicative of the game that was played. The Braves team was up 5-0 heading into the bottom of the sixth, before the bullpen let things get away. Gensi Angeles threw five shutout innings, allowing just three hits and no walks as his ERA remains at 0.00 through 14.1 innings, to go with a 0.98 WHIP. Angeles also had four strikeouts with five whiffs. Edward Cedano came in for the sixth, and he was charged with six runs without recording an out. Cristobal Abreu allowed another run, but was able to limit further damage in the sixth. Daniel Brooks came in for the next two innings, and gave up two runs of his own. Melvin Hidalgo went an inning and a third, allowing a walk-off in the 10th as the inherited ghost runner came in to score.

The Michael Martinez show continued on Saturday, as he homered for the second straight day to give him four on the year, in just 11 games. Martinez’s homer went 108.1 MPH off the bat. Infielders Manuel Campos and Yamvier Carrero also helped lead the Braves offense, as each had three hits. Campos’ three hits included a triple, and he stole three bases as he scored once and batted one in, while Carrero also stole a base, scored a run, and batted one in. Diego Tornes played for the third straight day, going one for four with a single and batting in a pair of runs, though from reports he just missed his first pro homer on a 102.5 MPH flyout. Manuel Dos Passos and Juan Espinal each added two-hit games, while Johan Rodriguez had a double in the loss. Conor Essenburg was not in the lineup after he started his rehab assignment on Friday.

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The Philadelphia Phillies go for the road series sweep today when they play the Pittsburgh Pirates in an exciting pitching matchup.

Paul Skenes and Zach Wheeler take the mound today, which has the MLB odds expecting a fairly low-scoring game.

My Phillies vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks explain why it’s what happens after they depart that will decide this one for the road underdogs.

Who will win Phillies vs Pirates today: Phillies moneyline (+120)

Paul Skenes will dominate the Philadelphia Phillies today... and then he’ll hand the ball to a bullpen with a league-worst 7.09 ERA over the past two weeks.

That will be the difference in this game.

Philly’s pen has a league-best 2.76 xFIP in that same span, with a 2.30 ERA. They also got a full day’s rest yesterday.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a GB rate of 46.4% the past two weeks, the sixth-highest in the league, and Zach Wheeler’s sinker/splitter combo has induced ground balls at a 46.5% clip.

Wheeler and his pen will outlast Skenes and his.

COVERS INTEL: Kyle Schwarber will likely struggle vs. Skenes’ arsenal today, as he’s posting a 40.4% whiff rate vs. breaking balls and a 43.9% whiff rate against offspeed pitches.

Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-130)

Skenes is dominating opponents behind a filthy arsenal and impeccable control. His 1.26 BB/9 and .183 BABIP lead the majors, and his 1.85 xERA is 0.62 runs better than any other qualified pitcher. 

He’s also controlled this Philly lineup. In 38 appearances, they’ve posted a .081/.108/.213 split while striking out 11 times. 

Skenes should rack up plenty of punchouts against a Philly lineup with the fifth-highest chase rate over the past two weeks, swinging at 37.1% of pitches outside the zone. 

He and Wheeler will limit scoring enough to stay under the total.

Phillies vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Phillies +127 | Pirates -133
• Run line: Phillies +1.5 | Pirates -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+122) | Under 7.5 (-127)

Phillies vs Pirates trend

The Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Pirates.

How to watch Phillies vs Pirates and game info

Phillies vs Pirates latest injuries

Phillies vs Pirates weather

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Here's what happened in Mets Land on Saturday, in case you missed it...

• Mark Vientos drove in three runs and the bullpen was excellent in a 6-3 win over the Yankees
• MLB Insider Chelsea Janes writes that Vientos, who is aware of the game's ebbs and flows, is thriving in an everyday role
• Luke Weaver and the rest of the pitching staff showed some resilience in the wake of Clay Holmes' injury on Friday, writes John Harper
• Tobias Myers is a potential replacement option for Holmes in the rotation, but it seems more likely that a young pitcher like Zach Thornton could get called up
• In the meantime, the Mets called up reliever Joey Gerberto give them a fresh arm in the bullpen until they need a new starter
• Carlos Mendoza praised the Mets' resiliency on Saturday after they dropped the series opener on Friday

The first two games of this weekend’s Braves-Red Sox series couldn’t have been much closer, with each team claiming a 3-2 win.

After Boston used an eighth-inning homer from Willson Contreras to win Saturday night’s game, the rubber match is set for Sunday at 1:35 p.m. at Truist Park.

The Braves, who have lost just one series this season, are 6-1 in rubber matches this season, including 4-0 at home.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 3-5 in rubber matches and have lost their last four, including one Thursday against the Phillies.

With the series on the line, the Braves will turn to Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.35 ERA), who will close out the homestand he began on Tuesday after going 11 days between appearances when he was skipped once through the rotation.

The right-hander has battled some control issues of late, with 13 strikeouts and 10 walks in his last three starts. In eight starts this season, he has 34 strikeouts to 21 walks in 41 1/3 innings. With his 1.31 WHIP, one would imagine his ERA would be higher. However, he’s navigated trouble pretty well, with only one start where he’s allowed more than three runs this season.

Last time out in Tuesday’s 5-2 win over the Cubs, Holmes glided through three innings before allowing a homer to Alex Bregman and walking the bases loaded in the fourth. He allowed one more run before escaping but his elevated pitch count chased him after a season-low-tying four innings of work.

Holmes has faced the Red Sox twice, starting a pair of games against them less than two weeks apart last May. He’s 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA, allowing a combined five runs over 11 2/3 innings, striking out 14 and walking five. He took the loss in a 5-1 Braves defeat on May 30.

Boston had a TBA starter for the series finale until after Saturday’s win. Brayan Bello (2-4, 6.46) was expected to be the bulk pitcher, but the last two times, he’s been used after an opener. This time, Bello will get the start, a role he’s had much less success in this season.

In his last two games out of the bullpen, Bello threw a combined 13 1/3 innings, allowing a run on four hits in each appearance with 12 total strikeouts and two walks.

In his six starts before that, he had a 9.12 ERA and a 1-4 record, allowing 26 runs on 43 hits over 25 2/3 innings. He struck out 17 and walked 15 in those six starts.

It’s been a surprising down season for Bello, who had a career-best 3.35 ERA in a career-high 166 2/3 innings last season and has never had an ERA above 4.71 in his first four seasons.

Bello is 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA in three career starts against the Braves. His two 2023 starts against Atlanta went pretty well, but he was roughed up last season in Boston, allowing seven runs on 10 hits over 4 1/3 innings in a 10-4 Braves win.

A breakout performance for an Atlanta offense which hasn’t yet scored more than five runs in a game this week would help end the homestand on a positive note and with a winning record.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Sunday, May 17, 1:35 p.m. EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision, Gray TV

Streaming: MLB.tv — it’s a free weekend, even if you don’t subscribe (though of course you’ll need to be out-of-market to benefit)

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan