Category: MLB

*In an effort to make the nomination voting easier for everyone, I will comment, “NOMINATIONS”, and you may reply to that with your picks and upvote the player you’d like to see on the next nominee list.

Well, we have officially got our top-10 on the annual CPL. Outfielder Devin Taylor just eked out the win this round, barely edging out Mason Barnett for that 10th spot. The lefty swinging corner outfielder has plenty to offer in the batter’s box as he looks like a bat-first outfielder that will need to hit to make it to the big leagues. He’s gotten off to a solid start to his professional career and will be one of the more intriguing outfielders in the system to keep an eye on. He only just played the previous year in the lower minors so it’ll be a while before we see him suit up in the Green & Gold.

The new nominee getting their hat in the ring is right-handed starter Henry Baez. One of the return pieces the A’s received for Mason Miller, Baez had a fantastic overall year but faltered a bit once he switched over to our organization. That shouldn’t put you down on the righty however as he still offers plenty of upside and could absolutely be an option for the A’s at some point this coming season. How aggressive do the A’s want to be with him?

The process for this public vote is explained below. Please take a moment to read this before participating:

• Please only vote for one. The player with the most votes at the end of voting will win the ranked spot. The remaining four players move on to the next ballot where they are joined by a new nominee.
• In the comments, below the official voting, the community will nominate players to be put onto the ballot for the next round. The format for your comment should be “Nomination: Player Name”.
• If a prospect is traded, his name will be crossed out, and all other players will be moved up a space. If a prospect is acquired, a special vote will be put up to determine where that player should rank.

Click on the link here to vote!

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A’s fans top prospects, ranked:

1. Leo De Vries, SS
2. Jamie Arnold, LHP
3. Gage Jump, LHP
4. Wei-En Lin, LHP
5. Braden Nett, RHP
6. Henry Bolte, OF
7. Johenssy Colome, SS
8. Edgar Montero, SS
9. Steven Echavarria, RHP
10. Devin Taylor, OF

The voting continues! Who will be voted as the 11th-best prospect down on the farm? Here’s a quick rundown on each nominee— the scouting grades (on a 20-to-80 scale) and scouting reports come from MLB Pipeline.

Nominees on the current ballot:

Tommy White, 3B

Expected level: Double-A | Age: 22

2025 stats (A+/AA): 395 PA, .275/.334/.439, 23 doubles, 0 triples, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 29 BB, 54 K, 3 SB

MLB Pipeline grades and scouting report:

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 40 | Overall: 45

White’s right-handed power is legitimate and he can hit the ball a long way to all fields thanks to his strength and bat speed. He might be known for his home run totals but he’s a better overall hitter than people think, finding the barrel consistently and limiting strikeouts. His knack for contact can lead to him expanding his strike zone, but he doesn’t swing and miss very often.

It will be White’s bat that carries him to the big leagues. He’s a well-below-average runner who likely lacks the range and tools to stick at third base, where he toiled as a sophomore and junior, earning praise for playing through a shoulder injury at LSU in 2023. He’s likely headed to first base long term, which could give the A’s a glut of serious offensive talent between him and first-rounder Nick Kurtz.

Shotaro Morii, SS/RHP

Expected level: Low-A | Age: 19

2025 stats (Rookie Affiliate): 188 PA, .258/.399/.384, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 36 BB, 47 K, 4 SB

MLB Pipeline grades and scouting report:

Scouting grades (hitter): Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40

Scouting grades (pitcher): Fastball: 55 | Slider: 40 | Curveball: 45 | Splitter: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40

At the plate, Morii features a smooth left-handed swing with tremendous balance. His power stands out, as he clubbed 45 home runs as a high schooler. He is considered an advanced hitter with good barrel control. On the mound, his fastball has been clocked as high as 95 mph and sits around 92-93. He also brings a splitter with nasty movement, a true 12-to-6 curveball and a tighter slider with solid bite and depth, though that offering will probably require some fine-tuning. Having only been pitching with regularity for less than two years, Morii’s arm is relatively fresh as he enters the organization.

Morii’s high-octane throwing arm plays well at shortstop, but some evaluators see a possibility of moving to third base as his 6-foot-1 frame fills out. While scouts see Morii’s long-term future in the batter’s box, the A’s plan on giving him every opportunity to succeed as a two-way player, with excitement already building over his impressive physical traits and desire to become one of the next great players out of Japan.

Henry Baez, RHP

Expected level: Triple-A | Age: 23

2025 stats (Double-A): 2.39 ERA, 23 starts, 109 IP, 100 K, 35 BB, 3 HR, 3.19 FIP

MLB Pipeline grades and scouting report:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

The 6-foot-3 right-hander has gained velocity steadily in his years as a pro and has touched as high as 99 mph this season. He typically sits around 94 mph, working north-south with the pitch while getting most of his whiffs up and to the armside. He played off that with a 76-79 mph curveball that could have more slurvish tendencies, but at its best, it snapped downward to fool batters sitting on the high heat and it had produced a 47 percent miss rate at the time of the trade. He also utilizes an 83-86 mph split-change to miss bats, but it stands out more for its separation than movement profile.

Baez took a major jump in workload but didn’t let his control improvements suffer. That certainly helps his starting chances, as does his 50.1 percent ground-ball rate from 2024. He’s still only 22, but with his place on the roster now set, the A’s (never afraid to move guys quickly) could try to see what it looks like in the big leagues in a relief role to ease him in.

Mason Barnett, RHP

Expected level: Triple-A/Majors | Age: 25

2025 stats (Triple-A): 6.13 ERA, 23 starts (25 appearances), 119 IP, 124 K, 65 BB, 17 HR, 5.53 FIP

2025 stats (Majors): 6.85 ERA, 5 starts, 22 1/3 IP, 18 K, 11 BB, 3 HR, 4.88 FIP

MLB Pipeline grades and scouting report:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Barnett leads a four-pitch mix with his fastball. Though it may not reach the 99 mph it once did earlier in his career, he can still rev it up to about 96 mph while sitting around 94. His mid-80s slider has evolved into more of a sweeper with good bite and emerged as a strong secondary pitch, providing solid separation in velocity from his upper-70s curve. He also utilizes a mid-80s changeup that is especially effective against left-handed batters.

Listed at 6-foot and 218 pounds, Barnett is showing all the traits of a “bulldog” on the mound who goes right after opposing hitters. He demonstrated strong improvement in his overall strike-throwing ability with his cleaned-up three-quarters arm slot that at times got a little long in the past. If the improvements hold up at the next level, the A’s view him as a long-term starter and believe he could push his way up to the big leagues at some point in 2025.

Cole Miller, RHP

Expected level: Single-A | Age: 20

2025 stats (ROK, Single-A): 1.90 ERA, 12 starts (15 appearances), 52 IP, 45 K, 11 BB, 1 HR, 3.38 FIP

MLB Pipeline grades and scouting report:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40

The A’s were working on some mechanical adjustments with Miller prior to his injury. His electric fastball ticked up to 96 mph in high school and displayed excellent movement down in the zone. The mid-80s slider is a hard breaker and was showing signs of improvement. His low-80s changeup showed some potential as an average third pitch.

There was real excitement within the organization for Miller’s professional debut. His three-pitch mix and large 6-foot-6 frame give off the potential of a workhorse-type starting pitcher in the big leagues. The A’s also loved the competitiveness they saw from him on the mound while scouting him. After an unfortunate delay, he finally got his first opportunity to make an impression this summer.

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Programming Note: Each CPL vote will run for around 48 hours, so don’t delay in making your vote!

The Yankees won 94 games last season and had baseball’s most prolific offense, leading baseball in runs. They are the game’s mightiest sluggers – get this, they smashed 274 homers last year, which was 30 more than the runner-up Dodgers – and also boast a compelling mix of high-ceiling talent in their starting rotation, not the least of which is a returning Gerrit Cole. 

Still, their winter is being perceived in some circles as somewhat underwhelming, no? The Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles made talent splashes in the AL East, but the Yanks, believing they already possess World Series genes, have not imported the same level of new boldface names. That leaves them vulnerable, at least before the season starts, to outside doubts. 

And not just from Yankees fans rage-posting on social media. 

Fair or unfair? We’ve got 162 games (and beyond) to find out. For some up-to-this-moment evaluation and, perhaps, foreshadowing, we asked some opposing scouts and club executives for a glance into the AL East, which still might be baseball’s most perilous division.

"I actually think their offseason is one of the top questions in the American League," said an executive from a competing team. "Did they do enough? Doesn’t feel like it to me, considering the action in Toronto, Boston and Baltimore."

"I can see where a Yankee fan, used to the winter juggernaut and then you compare them to the Dodgers in the NL – I can see their disappointment," added a scout from an opposing organization. "But they are still a really good team. 

"The whole package, really."

Let’s recap: The Yankees retained Cody Bellinger, a terrific move that helps in all facets of the game, Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt, and Amed Rosario. Their biggest-name outside addition was promising young lefty Ryan Weathers, who could impact the pitching staff in myriad ways, especially after Cole returns from his Tommy John recovery, which could be as soon as May. They remade the bullpen at last year’s deadline and David Bednar and Camilo Doval are expected to be relief bedrocks this year, too. 

With so many familiar faces returning, the Yanks are being accused of – earmuffs, Brian Cashman! – running it back from last year’s squad. That team, you might recall, was dominated by the Blue Jays all season and then in October, too. 

Then the rest of the division seemingly had MLB Trade Rumors working overtime with juicy moves. The Orioles, a crashing disappointment a year ago, signed Pete Alonso as part of a Camden Yards power surge and added Taylor Ward, too. That pair combined for 74 home runs last season and could fit snugly with a youthful star core. The O’s also added Shane Baz to their rotation and Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Helsley to their bullpen.

"Baltimore," the scout said, "has done a lot."

The Blue Jays’ winter was highlighted by giving Dylan Cease $210 million, bolstering their bullpen with Tyler Rogers, and adding Japanese infielder Kazuma Okamoto. And the Red Sox traded for Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray and signed one of the market’s top pitchers, Ranger Suárez, to add to a fearsome rotation fronted by Garrett Crochet.

Of course, winning the winter is only guaranteed to be great for pre-camp fan fests and chat-room talk. It does not assure championships.

Their division rivals may have captured much of the offseason sizzle, but the Yanks still return tons of talent and will get a full season of rotation wunderkind Cam Schlittler, who shined once he was promoted and then gave a tantalizing glimpse of a potential future of ace-hood with his historic October start against the Red Sox. The Massachusetts native dominated his former favorite team, adding another tasty slice to the Yanks-Sox rivalry.

"They get Cole back and that’s going to be a huge positive," the scout said. "Their starting pitching is pretty strong. Bullpen-wise, there may be a bit of a question mark. But their staff is pretty solid."

While Cole and Carlos Rodón finish their recoveries, Max Fried is the unquestioned ace after a brilliant first season in pinstripes in which he had a 2.86 ERA over 195.1 innings. He’ll be followed by Schlittler, Will Warren, Luis Gil, and Weathers, the son of David Weathers, who pitched for nine teams, including the Yankees and Mets, in a 19-year MLB career.

"Weathers is a left-handed power guy with pretty good stuff," the scout said. "He’s got two plus pitches in his fastball and change. Average sweeper. He has had walk issues in the past. But he strikes out a lot of guys and handles right-handers with the changeup, too."

Weathers, the scout added, excels at controlling his effort when he throws the changeup, meaning it does not appear to differ from the effort when he throws his 97-ish fastball. "The effort makes it look like he’s throwing hard and that gives him some late deception," the scout said.

The Yanks seem to have depth and flexibility in their pitching staff, a must considering AL East lineups. As for their own hitters, there’s little doubt the powerful, patient Yankees will score bushels of runs. They led MLB in wRC-plus, slugging, and walk rate, among multiple other categories. Aaron Judge, the best hitter in the sport, is still firmly in his prime and will be aiming for his fourth MVP Award.

"I get it, why they did what they did this winter," the scout said. "And 81 games in Yankee Stadium helps. They are built for that stadium."

But another scout lamented the Yankees' approach of the last few seasons. "Home run hero ball," he called it. Bellinger is an excellent contact hitter, making it imperative that he's back. But he was on the team last year. Could the Yanks be criticized for not adding additional contact types after a season in which their batters had baseball’s sixth-worst strikeout percentage?

Goldschmidt and Rosario give the bench a righty presence. Goldschmidt is a good defender at first base and could be a late-game sub for Ben Rice, a lefty who figures to get most of the at-bats there. Rice, a Statcast darling renowned for hard contact that has him on the same leaderboards as Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Kyle Schwarber, hit 26 home runs last year and could be poised for more.

After the 2024 World Series and Juan Soto’s departure for Queens, the Yankees strived to be better defensively and more athletic. Adding Ryan McMahon at third base at the deadline last year helped their defense, though he strikes out too much.

They also kept their glovework strong in center field by keeping Grisham, who took the qualifying offer to come back after slugging 34 home runs last year. Grisham might not be adored by defensive metrics, but he easily passes the first scout’s eye test.

"I think he’s a special defender," the first scout said. "Elite in center field. Offensively, there’s power there and he’s a great fit for Yankee Stadium. And he wants to be in New York. That’s a huge piece. Yankee Stadium is a tough place to play, home or visitor. If you’re playing well, it’s great. If not, it’s not easy.

"There’s always been swing and miss with him. But when he makes contact, it’s hard. And there’s such a mental advantage to playing in Yankee Stadium as a left-handed hitter. There can be a big confidence factor.

"I don’t think it was a risk that they kept him."

Risk is a word we’ll probably hear all season about the Yankees, especially through the prism of their winter. Anthony Volpe, the shortstop who was a flashpoint last season as he struggled at the plate and in the field, is recovering from offseason surgery, so José Caballero will play short early in the season. What happens when Volpe returns?

"Volpe kind of struggled last year,” the first scout said. "Is he the guy? I think there are a lot of questions that need to be answered.

"But the Yankees are still one of the top teams in the AL. I mean, they really are a top-tier club."

Yes, but one with questions looming on the eve of spring training, especially after their winter.

"They really are betting on last year’s roster," the opposing executive said.

So how good are the 2026 Mets after their offseason renovation, and where do they stack up in the NL East? 

Judging by the responses I received from seven MLB scouts and executives polled over the last several days, it’s a fascinating question that seems to have an unusually wide range of possibilities, setting up a season of considerable intrigue.

The only consensus among those polled is that the division should be one of the toughest in the majors, likely to be decided by a tight race involving the Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves, all capable of winning 90 or more games, with the acknowledgement that the Miami Marlins are on the rise, perhaps an X factor of sorts. 

Of those teams, none produced more varied opinions than the Mets, largely because they made the most dramatic changes, starting with David Stearns’ decision to break up the position-player core via the departures of Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil. 

As a result, win predictions from the evaluators I spoke to ranged from 83 to 95, with the disparity primarily centering around to the Mets’ offensive potential and questions about the bullpen. 

Consider these contrasting opinions:

"The bottom half of their lineup is full of holes," said one scout. "If (Carson) Benge blossoms quickly, maybe I’d re-think that, but I need to see it first."

"I think their quality of at-bats one-through-nine will be improved," countered an NL East executive. "To me they’ve been a poor situational hitting team (in years past). They’ve added some guys who will be tough outs in big spots."

The takes on the bullpen, specifically Devin Williams, were equally disparate:

"You can’t ignore the difficulty Williams had closing for the Yankees last year and just assume he’ll be fine in that role with the Mets, especially replacing (Edwin) Diaz," said one scout. "He’s still got that elite changeup and he eventually pitched well for the Yankees, but not as the closer. He didn’t handle the pressure well – it was affecting his mechanics and his command."

Said another scout of Williams: "I think he did struggle with the expectations as a Yankee but I like the way he figured it out and pitched well, especially in the postseason. I think he’ll go back to being as dominant as he was in Milwaukee."

And so it went, from one extreme to the other in trying to project the Mets in 2026. The one area of the ballclub that drew something of a consensus is the starting pitching, which everyone I spoke to believes will give them a basis for contention, mostly due to the trade for Freddy Peralta and the expectation that Nolan McLean will build on his stunning success late last season.

"Their rotation should be deep with a chance to be dominant," said one team executive. "Peralta was exactly what they needed at the top. To me McLean was no fluke -- if you watched him pitch you know the stuff is legit and the poise is uncommon. If they get bounce-backs from a couple of their veterans and then their young guys like (Jonah) Tong and (Christian) Scott eventually reach their potential, their starting pitching should give them a chance to win just about every day."

Added an NL scout:

"I’d make the case they have as many high-ceiling guys as just about anybody. I include (Kodai) Senga and (Sean) Manaea in that category, based on what they’ve done when healthy. Maybe even (David) Peterson -- he looked the part until he seemed to hit a wall late in the season. I think they all have a chance to get back to pitching at a high level.

"Then there’s Peralta and McLean, both with plus-plus stuff. And I like Tong. He just needs more time to develop. Obviously you need to see the bounce backs from certain guys materialize, but if they do I’d give them a chance to have a top five rotation in the game.”

So with all of this in mind, let’s get back to the question of how the Mets stack up in the division. The Phillies, remember, won it in a romp last season with 96 wins, while the Mets were a disappointing second with 83 wins, followed by the Marlins with 79 wins and the Braves with just 76 wins in what was a disastrous season for them.

Of the seven people I spoke to, three picked the Phillies to win it again, while two picked the Mets and two picked the Braves.

The Phillies offer the most certainty, with largely the same team that has been to the postseason the last four seasons. The one obvious bit of uncertainty, however, is the status of their ace, Zack Wheeler, who will be coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery last September and thus looms as a huge X factor.

"They need Wheeler in form to win the division again, especially after losing (Ranger) Suarez,” one exec said. "If he’s back they’re still very good and deep in the rotation. Then the question is whether age will catch up with their core. Their key guys are all in their 30s so injuries could be a factor. But they’re still very dangerous. They just haven’t gotten to the finish line in the postseason."

Added a scout: "To me, the Phillies have the highest floor. They should be in the high 80s in wins at worst."

The Braves, meanwhile, could have the highest upside. At least that was the consensus of those I polled, especially the two people who picked them to win the division. But even those who didn’t made the point that they have the potential for a huge bounce back season after injuries in their starting rotation and underperformance from their once-potent offense doomed them in 2025.

"If they get (Chris) Sale, (Spencer) Schwellenbach, and (Spencer) Strider back from injuries and pitching like they have in the past, they’ll be a 90-win team again,” said one scout. "And then if they hit like they did two years ago, they’ll have a chance to win it all. They have a ton of talent."

So based on these evaluations, there is a clear case to be made for each of the Mets, Phillies, and Braves to win the NL East.

The difference when it comes to the Mets is that there is more of an unknown quality due to the changes made by Stearns and thus the widest range of predictions -- with two of those polled picking them to win 92 or more games, three picking them for somewhere in the high 80s, and two picking them for 85 or fewer.

The difference centered mostly on the lineup, now featuring Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and Marcus Semien as newcomers.

"I love them adding Bichette," said one long-time executive. "He’s a proven RBI guy who knows how to hit in big spots. But I think they’ll miss Alonso’s power. I’m not sure what they’ll get from Robert or Semien. Same goes for some of their holdovers, guys like (Mark) Vientos and (Francisco) Alvarez. I like that they were willing to change the mix after a disappointing season. I just don’t know if they’re better."

Finally, one scout who had a more optimistic projection may have best summed up the state of the Mets for hopeful fans.

"They should be a more well-rounded team. Better defensively. Better starting pitching, I like Benge a lot and I know they do, too, so I feel like he’s the wild card offensively they need to make them a 90-plus wins team. Overall I like what they did this offseason, other than letting Diaz walk. But it feels like something of a leap of faith until I see some baseball."

We asked in the Rangers Reacts Survey who should be the Texas Rangers’ fifth starter to start the 2026 season. With the results having come in, there is a pretty clear preference for lefthander Jacob Latz.

The most likely candidates currently appear to be Latz, who spent the bulk of 2025 in the bullpen but with a few starts mixed in, and Kumar Rocker, who started all year, with both pitchers spending some time in the minors as well as the majors. Latz, with a 2.84 ERA and 3.72 FIP, outperformed, Rocker, who had a 5.74 ERA and 4.88 on the season.

Boston Baro (25)

Steve says:

Boston Baro had a solid 2024, establishing himself as a player to keep an eye on, but his progress and development took a backslide in 2025. He still has youth on his side but is currently being fueled more by how he has room to improve rather than how he has improved. Without one standout tool, his ultimate upside is a well-rounded player who does a lot of things fairly well, but profiles like that can fall into obscurity fairly quickly.

Lukas says:

It was a real let-down season for Baro, who failed to hit in High-A and saw his stock tumble while most of the system around him surged. It wasn’t a complete disaster and he’s still only 21 (and spent most of the season at 20) so it’s too early to give up entirely. At the same time, his power remains middling (ISO below .100) and the hit tool promise hasn’t materialized either. There are more exciting guys I’d have preferred here.

Daiverson Gutierrez (24)

Steve says:

Daiverson Gutierrez thoroughly impressed me in 2024. After an unimpressive first season as a professional in the DSL, he rebounded with revamped mechanics at the plate and killed it. He was roughly an average hitter last season, posting a 98 wRC+ in his 91 games with St. Lucie, and while there is probably a lot of variance in his offensive profile because of a lack of in-game power to count on, he has well-rounded defensive chops, giving him a solid floor as a developmental starting point.

Lukas says:

The just-missed list features a couple other formerly well regarded top catching prospects, but Gutierrez managed to keep his head above the waterline for another season. He posted average-ish slash line in his first full season stateside with some positive hit-tool and approach markers under the hood, and even a decent pulled fly ball rate to boot. The lack of exit velo – and corresponding lack of damage (.067 ISO) – is the main thing holding Gutierrez back right now. If he can add some more oomph without degrading his other skills, there might be something here. But he’s also a young catcher so…you know how that goes.

Randy Guzman (23)

Steve says:

Controversial is not the right word, but Randy Guzman is, I think, the most out of nowhere player on the list this year. He earned it though. His surface stats were great and the underlying metrics powering his surface stats were just as strong. Guzman is still young enough with no real track record that we can’t completely negate the idea that he had a flash in the pan season, but outside of a BABIP that seems way too high to be sustainable and whiff rate a bit higher than normal, there is nothing that screams Guzman was a complete illusion.

Lukas says:

After two seasons in the DSL – neither of which was particularly impressive – Guzman came out of nowhere and now looks like a real prospect. He posted a 108.5 90th percentile exit velocity – well above the major league average of ~104 and a 70 on the 20 – 80 scale – as a 20-year-old in St. Lucie, and his max of 111.9 MPH is excellent as well. You might expect horrific contact problems but no, Guzman puts bat to ball at a totally fine level. He even pulls the ball in the air a good amount, often a flaw for younger players. These are most of the ingredients to be a really exciting prospect, but Guzman is ranked in the 20s because he chases nearly 44% of the time. Some guys are able to improve that sort of flaw, and it’s worth noting that Guzman did walk more on the complex. Many others don’t, oftentimes because it’s a fundamental pitch recognition issue. We’ll see which side of that dichotomy Guzman winds up on.

Eli Serrano III (22)

Steve says:

I was not a fan of Eli Serrano’s selection in the 2024 draft, not because he is a bad player necessarily but because his path for professional success seemed unnecessarily complicated as compared to other players who were still available and seen as reasonable selections for the 4th round of the 2024 MLB Draft. Here we are a year-and-a-half later, and Serrano still hasn’t popped, but neither has anyone else who was selected in the rest of the round (sans Dakota Jordan, who signed for more than three times what Serrano did). As long as nobody else blooms, I am fine with Serrano having plenty of time to put in the work.

Lukas says:

Serrano was a personal favorite last offseason, and I shoved him all the way up to #12 on the basis of a limited pro sample where he changed his approach to pull the ball in the air more often. That thesis seemed to be playing out early-on; through May 23rd, Serrano batted .243/.366/.441 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts, good for a 144 wRC+ in the pitcher-friendly Maimonides Park (both due to brutal wind that blows right-to-left and a horrific batter’s eye for left-hand hitters). Then he missed two weeks with a lower-body injury and was a below average hitter the rest of the way, with a paltry .212/.308/.304 line. Some part of this may have been normal regression or the league figuring him out, but the timing suggests the injury played a role in the reduced production. Serrano still had a good year overall, implementing a swing change and maintaining decent contact and damage metrics. We’ll hopefully see him in Double-A in 2026 where he’ll have a chance to demonstrate that his strong first half was more representative of his underlying talent.

Edward Lantigua (21)

Steve says:

Last year, Edward Lantigua was a wildcard who was getting some helium thanks to a projectable body, solid surface numbers, and metrics that backed up the legitimacy of those numbers. A year later, all of that remains the same, except the outfielder passed his first test by doing the same kinds of things that got him helium in the first place at the Port St. Lucie complex. Lantigua will presumably begin the 2026 season in Single-A St. Lucie and any kind of sustained success there will certainly catapult him into the ranks of bona fide Mets prospects.

Lukas says:

On the surface, Lantigua had a really nice season in the complex last year, demonstrating good bat-to-ball skills and an excellent eye at the plate. A couple of years ago, I’d be falling over myself to rank this sort of guy closer to the top-10. Nowadays, the signs of passivity are a bit more of a warning sign. Yes, Lantigua walked more than he struck out and that’s undeniably a good-outcome; however, it can also be a sign of passivity at the plate, a trait which can artificially inflate hit tools as well. None of this is to say Lantigua is a bad prospect, there’s an intriguing blend of average or slightly-above tools and a good degree of polish. Nevertheless, there’s a reason a dude with a 144 wRC+ last season isn’t getting blown up, and he’ll need to continue proving this OBP-heavy approach works as he moves up the ladder.

Antonio Jimenez (20)

Steve says:

Like Eli Serrano above, Jimenez was another player whose selection I didn’t like at the time because I felt like there were better players still on the board when the Mets made the 102nd pick. That said, Jimenez’ path to success seems much more linear than Serrano’s; unfortunately, what he needs to work on might be one of the most difficult things a hitter can improve on. He swings hard and swings at everything, resulting in a lot of loud contact yes, but a lot of swings-and-misses and weak contact as well. I don’t think we know enough about Jimenez as a person and as a player to say that he won’t be able to reign in this Achilles heel of his, but it is a testament to the Mets’ developmental pipeline that it will all be okay if he doesn’t; not that I want Jimenez to be a bust, if he does, his failure will not be a catastrophic hit to the organization.

Lukas says:

Jimenez was admittedly not my favorite selection in last year’s draft. There’s undeniable athleticism, bat-to-ball ability, and bat speed here, all positive traits that you’re excited to get from an underslot pick in 3rd round. The swing decisions though…they’re ugly The folks running the Mets’ draft are widely regarded as some of the best in the game, and they’re clearly placing an emphasis on the sort of high-end athletic traits that Jimenez has, a philosophy that has already paid clear dividends. I can’t shake my long-standing belief that approach is one of the trickiest things to teach, however, and is indeed often tied to a different set of athletic traits (e.g., eyesight, processing speed, etc.). For that reason, I remain a bit lower on Jimenez even while acknowledging the clear upside here if he can rein in the aggression.

Ryan Lambert (19)

Steve says:

The Mets drafted a bunch of right-handed pitchers in the middle rounds of the 2024 MLB Draft that all had roughly the same kind of pitch characteristics: a fastball with high induced vertical break, a sharp slider, and not a lot of mileage on their arms. Ryan Lambert fit those criteria, but he also did something that none of the other pitchers in that grouping did: throw incredibly hard. In a world of spin rates and spin axis’ and spin efficiencies, there is still something just viscerally appealing about seeing a pitcher blow a triple-digit fastball by a batter. Lambert’s walk rate is problematic, but given how few hits he allowed and for how little power the preponderance most of those hits were, you can tolerate the bases on balls.

Lukas says:

We really shouldn’t be ranking relief prospects, or at least not as often as we used to. The Mets’ system is better than that at this point. But when a guy posts an ERA under 2 over 50 innings across two levels with a K% approaching 40%, you take notice. Even after a promotion to Double-A where his walk rate ballooned to 14.7%, Lambert still bordered on unhittable. The fastball remains gross, an IVB-heavy offering that Lambert is able to blow by hitters at the top of the zone, and his secondaries have become highly effective as well. Two things to watch here; the control, of course, and also how these pitches play given Lambert’s release traits. Put simply, the vert-heavy movement profile he gets is close to what you’d expect coming out of an over-the-top arm, reducing the deception. Still this looks like a potential late-inning arm that should help the Mets in 2027 – fantastic outcome for an 8th round pick.

Dylan Ross (18)

Steve says:

Similar to Ryan Lambert, Dylan Ross’ walk rate was problematic, but given how few hits he allowed and for such little damage, you can live with the walks. Ross does his damage with a true splitter, which is not something that too many other pitchers in the system utilize, and the pitch is one of the better ones in all of minor league baseball. It’s pretty incredible and a testament to the team’s developmental system that, even factoring in a first-round bust, the 2022 MLB Draft class seems poised to be one of the strongest in Mets history.

Lukas says:

Ross is yet another late-round success story for the Mets, a 13th rounder in 2022 that now looks the part of a legitimate late-inning weapon. Both his slider and splitter are nasty offerings, with 90th percentile or better quality metrics in Triple-A per Rob Orr and whiff rates to match. He also throws in the upper 90s and has touched 102. Sounds great, but there are some warts. Ross’s fastball has pretty poor shape, something he gets away with due to the velocity but not ideal, particularly if you value fastball whiff rates (something I put a lot of emphasis on). Second, his command collapsed in Triple-A, with a BB% of 17.3%. Now he still had a 1.69 ERA in Syracuse, demonstrating how unhittable he can be, but I worry the lack of command and bad fastball ultimately all makes this play down a bit, more in the “annoying 7th inning guy that should be more” role.

Chris Suero (17)

Steve says:

It’s hard not to root for Chris Suero; he’s a likable, down-to-earth, locally raised kid. There are two ways to look at his 2025, in particular his second half, which saw him promoted to Double-A Binghamton. Has he hit a developmental wall? Or is it a case of a young kid being exposed to tougher pitching and needing more time to adapt? Suero’s approach at the plate, coupled with very few changes to his batting line or approach save the lack of power does worry me that it could be the former, but there is no rush and no need for Suero to be pushed aggressively. I think the catcher-outfielder has plenty of time to get more at-bats under his belt and crack the nut that is Double-A pitching.

Lukas says:

I was a big believer in Suero last offseason and he had, by any top-line measurement, an extremely successful season – 140 wRC+ across two levels, finishing in Double-A as a 21-year-old. Despite that, I don’t think I’m all that much higher on him than I was last offseason, primarily because of the contact concerns. Suero spent much of 2025 swinging out his shoes resulting in both better damage on contact but also a big spike in strikeout rate. After getting promoted to Double-A, the strikeouts remained but the improved damage largely vanished. Suero still looks like a very fun multi-positional backup, but it’s trending more TTO than I would’ve expected – would love to see him reign things in slightly and find a happy medium this upcoming season.

R.J. Gordon (16)

Steve says:

If you would’ve told me on July 16, 2024 that R.J. Gordon was going to be a top prospect in the minor league system, I would’ve laughed at you. Gordon did not exactly have an impressive college career, and the stuff, while fine, did not exactly jump off the page at you. He then developed a “kick” changeup, the same kind of changeup that Nolan McLean developed, and here we are. The right-hander only made 10 starts (11 appearances) in Double-A Binghamton last year, so presumably he will begin the 2026 season there, but if he continues putting up the numbers he did last year, you could make a strong case that Gordon’s name should be found somewhere in the 2026 Mets pitching depth chart.

Lukas says:

Gordon is a 24-year-old who spent only half his season at Double-A last year. That’s not a great way to start a report, but then you remember that he posted an ERA over 5 with middling peripherals for Oregon one season prior. That he’s a notable prospect at all is a huge developmental win, one of many college arms littered across the system that the Mets have demonstrably improved since draft time. Gordon’s arsenal is a rather generic 95-and-a-slider package, but the slider is legitimately good and he ran a K% in the high 20s. As is, he’s a nice potential back-end starter or flexible relief piece. I also wouldn’t rule out more though; it’s not immediately obvious to me that there’s more juice here, but the Mets just keep finding ways to make arms better.

Nick Morabito (15)

Steve says:

Nick Morabito’s selection in the 2022 MLB Draft wasn’t seen as a complete head scratcher, per se, but the profile along with the early underwhelming numbers and unimpressive first professional looks didn’t exactly inspire confidence. Here we are a few years later, and improbably, the outfielder is on the cusp of being a major league contributor. Granted, his offensive profile is extremely hard to make work at the major league level, but Morabito has a high defensive floor, and in centerfield no less, which should help keep his name in the conversation for a roster spot somewhere or other for years to come.

Lukas says:

The Morabito selection was widely derided in 2022, and his post-draft showing didn’t build much confidence. All he’s done since then is hit though, working his way up the system through 2023 and 24 before logging a very successful full season at Binghamton in 2025. Much better than many thought he’d be post draft to be sure, but there’s still reasons for healthy skepticism. Morabito remains a BABIP-dependent player, one who doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard or at particularly good angles most of the time. His speed and groundball tendencies eat up minor-league fielders, but that won’t work in the majors, and he lacks both meaningful power and the ability to play centerfield. I have some concerns about his bat-to-ball ability too, though he bounced back from some early troubles there in Double-A. He’s a proximal 4th / 5th OF prospect.

Zach Thornton (14)

Steve says:

Zach Thornton is your classic “package is greater than the sum of its parts” pitchers, and players like that are hard to gauge sometimes. Thornton reminds me a lot of P.J. Conlon; the left-handedness, the pinpoint control, the funk in the delivery, the success in the minor leagues despite not having true elite stuff. Given how pitching rich the minor league system is currently and the fact that the left-hander is a clear tier or two below some of the other names, I’m not really sure where Thornton fits in. Regardless of how he fits into future plans- or where- I think there is a definite major league floor in some capacity.

Lukas says:

Starting this blurb bold: I think we’re too low on Zach Thornton. He’s a lanky lefty that throws pitches more suited for the 1990s in terms of velocity, but he also ran a K-BB% of 24.5% in Double-A during his abbreviated season. The fastball blows by people thanks to outstanding IVB even though it sits 89. Couple that with a good slider and a deep repertoire of other stuff – cutter, change, curve – and you get a diverse arsenal that I suspect would rank highly on BP’s surprise metric. Mix in excellent command, and you’ve got a junk baller that I think is at least a 4th starter type. The upside beyond that is capped barring a velocity jump, but Thornton is probably my favorite non-elite guy in the system at this point.

Elian Peña (13)

Steve says:

I have been told by many, many people that they do not share my opinions about ranking extremely young and raw players. It’s not a ding against a player per se, but the less playing time and experience they have, the less data we have to show that they can do X, Y, or Z, which is an anathema to the entire concept of taking a big group of players, weighing them on their merits, accomplishments, and potential, and ranking them in ordinal lists. At times, people have gotten on my case, but based on the volatility of these young players (hey Collin Houck, hey Trey Snyder, hey Colt Cabana, how ya doing?), the carriage is being put before the horse way too often. All that said, Elian Peña forced himself into the conversation of whether or not he should be considered a top organizational prospect with his 2025 performance, and looking over the limited data that could be mined from his 2025 campaign in the Dominican Summer League, he doesn’t seem to be a mirage. His swing looks good. The data shows he’s hitting the ball hard. He’s pulling and lifting the ball for damage. He’s not too rambunctious. He’s got wheels. Despite being a 17-year-old with 55 games of DSL experience, Peña does seem to be legit. Hopefully, in a year, we’ll be having this same discussion about Wandy Asigen.

Lukas says:

More than ever, ranking prospects is a data game. What were the EVs? The swing and miss? How’s the approach look? What are the spray characteristics? All quantifiable and, for many domestic leagues, quite accessible. The DSL is a different nut, where the data is harder to get your hands on and of lower quality if you do, and where the competition level makes evaluation – particularly for hitters – quite challenging. For all these reasons, I hate trying to rank guys like Peña. He certainly looks the part of “good IFA who probably moves off short but has a potent enough bat to make it work”. The data, which I’ve not seen first hand, supposedly backs that up, with a solid blend of contact and thump and a penchant for pulling the ball in the air. Couple that with the incoming pedigree and this is about the right spot to slot him. Check back in throughout the seasons as we build up a more real factbase on the actual quality of prospect here.

Jonathan Santucci (12)

Steve says:

Jonathan Santucci had a strong professional debut last season, pitching acceptably well in High-A Brooklyn and then very well in Double-A Binghamton. The Mets have done a very good job in the last few years maximizing players with Santucci’s profile, and we saw the learning in real time last season, with the southpaw getting better as the year went on, getting a better feel for his changeup and curveball and improving his command. I get Steven Matz vibes from Santucci, where the stuff was very much obviously there, but many evaluators were hesitant to give him his due for a while because of the injury history. Despite turning 23 next season and already having 50 innings in Double-A under his belt, I don’t think we need to rush Santucci; he is in a weird developmental position where he still only has a total of 246.0 high-level baseball innings under his belt, with 117.2 of them, almost half, coming from his time in Brooklyn and Binghamton last year. Santucci is Schrödinger’s Pitcher, somehow raw and a finished product at the same time.

Lukas says:

Santucci is probably my least favorite of the recent college arms (I had him a good deal lower than this, though it’s all a bit of a blob anyway). The stuff is good, but not great, and the scattershot command makes it all play down a bit. Now, he was excellent in the second half, including a 50 inning run in Binghamton with an ERA of 2.52 and peripherals to back it up. He’s also largely stayed healthy since being drafted, a major concern that made him available to the Mets in the 2nd round in the first place. This is all tracking towards the archetype of a frustrating back-of-the-rotation arm who flashes better quality but never quite puts it all together. He’ll be part of the Mets’ (very deep) rotation depth chart in 2026.

Mitch Voit (11)

Steve says:

Voit’s selection in the 2025 MLB Draft was underwhelming to me, to say the least. Obviously, making their first selection with the 38th overall pick, there is going to be a lack of luster on the players available as compared to other true first-rounders, but there were still a handful of players floating around who signed for a comparable amount that I would have preferred, such as Brendan Summerhill, Zach Root or Cam Cannarella. Voit gives me Bryson Stott vibes- an overall well-rounded hitter, with more of an emphasis on speed and stolen bases rather than power and home runs in Voit’s case, that will spend most of his time at second base. If he develops enough to make it to the major leagues and becomes a Stott-ish player, that’s a great outcome, but nothing about Voit right now makes me feel like he will turn into a real standout kind of player. That’s still a win for the developmental system obviously, and luckily the organization is in a position where every cashout doesn’t need to be a jackpot.

Lukas says:

Despite not having a selection until #38 overall, it seems like the Mets managed to get another interesting prospect in last year’s draft in Voit. He fits the recent organizational trend of selecting two-way college guys (Nolan McLean, Carson Benge being other notable examples), a pathway to potentially untapped developmental runway. Voit already saw both contact and approach improvements in his final collegiate season after giving up pitching, and post draft there were further positive markers in terms of his defensive acumen. That said, there were some notable swing and miss challenges in pro ball, and the exit velocities were middling at best. I’m still bullish on Voit overall, but you should expect more “potential solid regular” rather than another high-level breakout like Benge.

The next guy up is….a catcher? Really?

Alirio Ferrebus – 52
Jean Cabrera – 31
Griffin Burkholder – 13
Yoniel Curet – 11
Keaton Anthony – 11
Carson DeMartini – 11
Alex McFarlane – 3
Mavis Graves – 2
Seth Johnson – 1
Romeli Espinosa – 1
Zach McCambley – 1

I have to admit, this one caught me off guard a bit. The voting here was pretty consistent though. Ferrebus was in the lead for most of the time people had to vote, so this doesn’t feel like a stuff the ballot situation.

He is a good prospect. From everything I’ve seen, he’s a decent bet to hit well and stay behind the plate, giving the team another catching prospect that can be thought of as the heir apparent to J.T. Realmuto (whenever he moves on), so it’s not as though he’s a nothing prospect. He’ll need to hit well enough and develop some power to be taken truly seriously as a starting catching prospect.

He has time.

2025 stats (w/ the FCL and Clearwater)

280 PA, .236/.308/.348, 37 R, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 6.1 BB%, 16.1 K%, 85 wRC+

Fangraphs scouting report

He is a long-levered C/1B prospect with precocious oppo contact feel who struggles some with selectivity and receiving.

Ferrebus is really projectable for a young catcher, but he needs to be stronger and quieter at the catch point. His hands are better picking balls in the dirt than they are at squeezing pitches around the edges of the zone, though too often he relies on his hands to pick the ball rather than move his body to block it. His lean, sinewy build might be part of why, and added strength might make it easier for him to wear one when he needs to. Throwing accuracy helps Ferrebus’ average arm play up when he gets a clean throw away, but too often messy or slow footwork prevents him from doing so. There’s enough here that Ferrebus should absolutely continue to develop behind the dish even though he isn’t a lock to stay back there, and even if things work out, it’s probably going to take a while.

With each new post, we’ll reveal who won the voting for that particular slot, then post new players for you to vote on, adding another one to the list each time until we get to our final tally of 20. Once we get to 20 top prospects, we’ll do an honorable mention post at the end. If a player gets traded to another team, we’ll just chuck him right on outta here and all the players will move up a spot. If a prospect gets acquired, we’ll ask where he should go on the list.

Probably the most important thing about this whole process – please vote. Give us a few minutes of your time, just click a button and then we can discuss other players and things in the comment section, but don’t forget – VOTE!

Behind the dish the Cincinnati Reds boast both Tyler Stephenson and Jose Trevino for the 2026 season, a quality combination of experience, defense, and even some timely offense sprinkled in. The starting rotation that will chuck baseballs their way is also mostly set, the only unknown precisely how the depth at its back-end gets shuffled through to manage the 162 game season.

Across the infield, the club has both depth and certainty, too. Ke’Bryan Hayes was brought in specifically for one thing – to play incredible defense at the hot corner more often than not – while star Elly De La Cruz will flank him to the left at short. Matt McLain, his breakout 2023 now a distant memory, has the trust of both the front office and manager Terry Francona, his glovework a certainty while his offense hopefully leaks back into the picture after two years being MIA. At 1B, there’s a plethora of legitimate options, Sal Stewart ready to stake his claim while Spencer Steer plays all over, and Eugenio Suarez could even mix in when not serving as the regular DH.

The LF situation that the Reds refuse to actually solve got depth, too, with Steer now slated for more time there with Suarez in the fold and former top pick JJ Bleday around to compete with Will Benson for PA from the left side. Dane Myers and his own excellent glovework were acquired from the Marlins to provide right-handed balance to that mix while also being fully capable of spelling TJ Friedl in CF to keep the latter more fresh for the season’s stretch run.

Even the bullpen got a healthy overhaul, with Caleb Ferguson, Brock Burke, and Pierce Johnson brought in to bolster what remained after Scott Barlow and Brent Suter hit free agency at the end of 2025.

That’s almost a full roster of knowns, with McLain’s bat perhaps the only real question mark. Still, his defense and position mean he’s not a bat on which the Reds truly need to lean either way. Yet despite the budding ‘certainty’ on this roster that was young and unproven so recently in memory, there’s still one spot on the field (and presumably in the everyday lineup) that’s penciled-in despite us really having no real clue how the situation will pan out in 2026.

That’s in RF, and that lies with Noelvi Marte.

Still just 24 years old, Marte was obviously one of the big gets from Seattle in the deal that sent Luis Castillo westward almost four years ago. In the trio of big league seasons since, Marte has morphed from a top shortstop prospect over to 2B, then to 3B where he settled in to more regular time despite a PED suspension that cost him half a season. As recently as the Reds’ 108th game of the 2025 season, he was the clubs regular at the hot corner, only to immediately be tasked with playing RF for the first time in his career after the targeted (and long-term, not short-term) addition of Hayes for 3B.

From that point forward, he hit .254/.280/.415 across 51 games to finish the year. For his career across parts of three seasons, he’s hit .254/.294/.400 in 725 games. That’s a career mark of 86 OPS+ (an 86 wRC+), and that comes on the heels of him still being incredibly fresh off a move to a position he’d never played before at any level.

Yet still, we sit here on the cusp of pitchers and catchers reporting for 2026 spring training in Goodyear as if he’s a failsafe option out there, a known quantity to be an everyday regular in one of the positions historically patrolled by the best two-way players in the sport.

This isn’t meant to be an indictment of Marte’s potential, as it still seems as if he’s got loads left to unlock. It’s merely an attempt to highlight just how much the Reds have put on his plate heading into 2026, and how much they’re banking on a still very much unproven player in a year in which they’re clearing aiming for even more success than their playoff appearance in 2025.

You don’t go spend $15 million on Suarez for a lone year without thinking this year is pretty vital with expectations. You don’t retain Brady Singer for $12 million in his final year of club control (with all that starting pitching depth behind him) without clearly having your sights set on a return to the playoffs in mind. Yet despite building depth at basically every single position out there, it seems as if getting Marte 550+ PA (and having them be pretty damn good) is something the Reds have already chalked up in their projections as if it’s something he’s done for them for years already, and it’s hard not to overlook that at the dawn of a huge year for the Reds.

It’s not that he hasn’t flashed that ability in spurts before, as he has. It’s just that it’s literally something he’s never once sustained for anything close to a full-season before, and simply sliding Bleday or Benson over doesn’t bake in the kind of upside depth that, say, letting Suarez play more at 3B should Hayes continue to not hit or letting Steer play 1B regularly if Stewart stumbles does.

Marte’s kind of on an island over there in the outfield corner, for now. He’s on an island of big expectations, and with that comes a bit more pressure on him than he’s ever had in his big league career.

The hope, for the Reds sake, is that he’s the kind of player at this juncture that will thrive on that opportunity, for that opportunity is very, very much here.

The Cardinals system is in a very good place. I don’t know how I personally feel about Brandon Clarke – I genuinely don’t know what my list will be at the end right now – but Clarke is a fringey but probably not actual top 100 prospect. You guys have ranked him 9th in the system! And not in like a “you guys are obviously underrating him” way (although some of you surely feel that way). Nah, the system is that good. He should be like the 5th best prospect in the system and I imagine would be most years I do this. We’re still finishing up the top 10 and getting players who some people think is a top 100 prospect.

1. JJ Wetherholt
2. Liam Doyle
3. Rainiel Rodriguez
4. Quinn Mathews
5. Joshua Baez
6. (or 7) Leonardo Bernal
7. (or 6) Jurrangelo Cjintje
8. Jimmy Crooks
9. Brandon Clarke

Jurrangelo Cjintje

In case you missed Thursday’s vote, Cjintje defeated Jimmy Crooks in a head-to-head as the #7 prospect. Because he was acquired in the middle of this top 20 feature, my solution was to run him head-to-head against all the top prospects until someone defeated him. We started with Crooks, and as you can probably guess by how I listed the current rankings, today it’s Cjintje versus Leonardo Bernal. I gave a full profile, but I’ll just list the scouting report section this time:

Cjintje is technically a switch pitcher, but it is very clear from the scouting and the numbers that he is a far better pitcher right-handed. From the right side, Cjintje throws mid-90s and has topped at 99 mph. He has both a cutter and a sweeper, though the sweeper is the better pitch. He also throws an upper-80s change. From his left side, he is effectively a two-pitch pitcher, throwing low 90s with a solid sweeper. Statistically, it wasn’t close. He walked more than he struck out and allowed 7 homers in 21 innings from the left side, but from the right side he had a 5.0 K/BB ratio and only allowed 3 homers in 34.1 IP.

High A: 19 G (16 GS), 74.2 IP, 26.4 K% 11.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%, .234 BABIP, 4.58 ERA/5.51 FIP/4.33 xFIP

AA: 7 GS, 33.2 IP, 25.5 K%, 11 BB%, 48.3 GB%, .299 BABIP, 2.67 ERA/3.42 FIP/4.01 xFIP

Scouting (FG): 55/60 Fastball, 50/60 Slider, 50/60 Change, 30/40 Command

VOTE HERE

Comparable Player Poll

One very good example of how much better the system is than in years past is that I still have to add multiple players who I feel would certainly be in the voting already. I sort of have a mental image of the quality of the prospect who should be added before the 10th vote. That is a difficult thing to do right now though because there’s probably five guys who fit that description. I won’t necessarily say that applies to both players in today’s vote…. but depending on the results, it may apply to the winner of this poll. Whether I add him on the next vote, well, that’ll be a tough decision. A tough decision that will be helped by knowing where these guys rank relative to each other.

Nathan Church is certainly an interesting case, being ignored in last year’s voting and making a late debut in 2025 due to injury. Once healthy, he killed both AA and AAA. He earned his way onto the MLB roster, appearing in 27 games. To say those 27 games probably went about as poorly as they could is not totally accurate. Offensively, it probably is. But his defense went about as well as possible. In both instances, I would say the small sample size should probably force you to not take either number at face value. (Some of you may have forgot Church was a prospect; this guy did at the beginning!)

You guys should be familiar with Chase Davis, making his second straight appearance in this section. Drafted in the 1st round in 2023, after a disappointing 34 games following the draft, he quickly ascended in 2024, finishing with 8 games in AA. Last year, he did manage an above average hitting line, but it came with not as much power as hoped and an elevated K rate. Defensively, we’re not totally sure, but he played mostly CF so at worst he seems like a good defender in the corners and at best, his defense will create a low bar for his bat to be successful.

VOTE HERE

New Add

I know Tai Peete should be in the voting. I know. However, I’ve been doing this for a few years and he really doesn’t have the profile of someone who will be surprisingly high. I will add him I promise. But he has a couple things going against him, namely his numbers were bad and he literally just got here. So long as I have a candidate who I think might get voted in the very vote where I add that player, I am going to be forced to pick somebody else.

That certainly applies to Tanner Franklin. Of the players I have yet to add, I think he has the best chance of being voted #10. It’s not a high chance, or he’d already be in the voting. But he does have the profile of someone who will be surprisingly high. Or least, I can see a decent percentage of voters thinking he should be on the list very soon, if not now. I don’t really think that’s true of Peete.

Jesus Baez, IF – 21

Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+

Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding

Baez is an interesting prospect, because some parts of him feel contradictory. Read a scouting report, and you’ll likely read about his bad approach at the plate. Statistically, you’d have no idea he had a bad approach at the plate. He walks plenty and doesn’t strike out a lot. He’s fairly mistake-prone, but that could also just be a function of the fact that he has played professional baseball without being able to legally drink.

Tanner Franklin, 22 – RHP

Stats: 3 GS, 6 IP, 32.1 K%, 17.9 BB%, 66.7 GB%, .333 BABIP, 1.50 ERA/3.95 FIP/4.28 xFIP

Scouting: 60/70 Fastball, 40/55 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 30/40 Command

Franklin compiled those stats at both Low A and High A following getting drafted to slightly increase his innings total to prepare for this upcoming season. I don’t really think the stats themselves mean anything, but it’s nice to be able to share some stats. As you can see, he is a two-pitch pitcher searching for a third pitch to allow him to start. But he’s got a really good first pitch and a fairly strong second pitch as well.

Tink Hence, 23 – RHP

Stats (Three levels): 8 G, 21.1 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.1 BB%, 45.8 GB%, .255 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/3.80 FIP/4.18 xFIP, 4.56 DRA

Scouting: 45/45 Fast, 50/55 Slider, 60/70 Change, 45/55 Command

And here we have another example. Hence is probably a little more unique because of his relatively slight frame – even when he wasn’t getting injured, there was reliever risk. But just because Hence has been around for a while doesn’t mean he’s old yet – he’s the same age as Clarke. And Hence has already had a fantastic season at AA – if he’s healthy for most of this season, I have no doubt most of it will be in AAA. He might start the year in AA just for proof of concept, but he pitched far too good in 2024 to not think he’s ready for AAA. Unless his stuff has diminished because of the injuries.

Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA

Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command

Shoutout to Teddy Rugby, who pointed out that Jimmy Crooks’ “problem” as a prospect is that he’s boring. With prospects, it’s all about upside and loud tools. A good to great defensive catcher with a good enough bat is just not exciting. I’m making this comparison, because I think Henderson might be the pitching equivalent. It might be hard to vote for a Henderson when you see the big stuff of a Clarke or Hence or

Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP

Didn’t pitch

Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command

Seriously, we very quickly went from having a very boring stereotypical Cardinals pitching prospect to having a top 20 list littered with high variance, high risk pitching prospects. I think one could even argue Liam Doyle fits this a little: he’d be higher in the top 100 if he weren’t considered a little bit risky. If Clarke had the least concerning injuries, Hjerpe might be on the exact opposite side. Yes, I know he’s not the only who had Tommy John, however he is the only one who has maxed out at 41 innings.

Brycen Mautz, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%. 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/3.58 FIP/3.20 xFIP/4.54 DRA

Scouting: 45/45 Fastball, 55/55 Slider, 40/45 Curve, 35/40 Change, 45/55 Command

2026 will prove to be an important year for Mautz. I feel like we’ve seen a few of the underwhelming scouting starters who nonetheless manage to pitch well reach AAA and just hit a roadblock. I will say that usually that type of pitcher doesn’t strike out 28.6% of batters in AA however. That gives me more hope that he either has better stuff than what the scouting says or that he’s better at utilizing and knowing his stuff than pitchers in the past. Either way, it’s hard to argue with his results.

Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF

I do not have stats to share with you – I’m sure I can find high school stats, but they aren’t a lot of use on this kind of list. It doesn’t appear Fangraphs has given him scouting grades, I can’t find MLB Pipeline (and I don’t like how they give grades anyway, too high generally). I have access to Baseball Prospectus’ top 20, and while they don’t give Mitchell a scouting grade, I thought just sharing their blurb would suffice:

“Mitchell, a toolsy overslot second-rounder, didn’t play after the draft. For much of his high school career, he would rotate so early that he was more or less standing up when making contact, but his swing became one of the most fun to watch in the class. He dips down a bit and explodes from the lower half. There is some risk he won’t be able to get around against higher velocity fastballs, but his contact rates on the circuit were adequate, and there’s enough athleticism, present bat speed, and physical projection to expect some power. Defensively, he has good actions but could be forced to second base in pro ball. There aren’t any elite tools here, but he presents a pretty well-rounded infield profile and had an arrow up coming into the draft.”

(The Cardinals announced him as an outfielder, in the interview after the draft, he more or less seemed to confirm he’ll be an outfielder)

Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B

Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+

High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+

Necessary disclaimer: no available scouting report for Ortiz that I can find. I’m sure that will change soon. But we’re making the list now, and stats is what we have to judge. And what good stats he had. He might be young enough to repeat High A to start the season, so I’ll actually be curious where he’s placed. He clearly hit well enough to start the year in AA. He also had over a .400 BABIP and it wasn’t that many PAs. The surest sign of a prospect to watch for is when they are aggressive with promotions. Both Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson advanced through the system very fast. I almost wish this list were made knowing whether or not he was placed in AA, because I think that would impact where I would place him.

Yairo Padilla, 19 – SS

Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283/.396/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+

Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 40/60 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 30/40 Field

Padilla is taking a more conventional progression as a prospect, at least so far, and the fact that he was in the same class as Rainiel Rodriguez is doing him no favors in that respect. Just about anybody would pale in comparison to Rodriguez as a prospect at this point. A more conventional progression means time, which means Padilla might be on this top 20 for quite a few years. That said, I trust that 40 fielding grade about as much as I trust Lumon Industries. (Context clues can probably tell even non-Severance watchers what I mean by that)

Tekoah Roby, 24 – RHP

Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/2.73 xFIP/4.56 DRA

AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.01 FIP/4.04 xFIP/4.50 DRA

Roby in my opinion was essentially where Hence will be in this upcoming season. Which is both good and bad. We weren’t sure if Roby’s stuff had diminished because his stuff was worse when he did pitch in 2024, but he also barely pitched and likely pitched injured. And then he came to spring and everything returned. And his results matched his stuff in the minors. And then he needed Tommy John. Aside from that last part, I hope Hence looks like Roby next year too.

VOTE HERE

(Little late and I had to repeat the profiles from the last post, because I did not write all of this article before I went to a Super Bowl party)

There’s been rumors for a while now that the Pittsburgh Pirates weren’t done in free agency, and Ben Cherington made good on that rumor this morning, with the Bucs signing DH/left fielder Marcell Ozuna to a one-year, $12 million deal, according to ESPN. Ozuna will make $10.5 million in 2026, with a $16 million option for 2027 that has a $1.5 million buyout.

The 35-year-old Ozuna is coming off of a season in which he hit .232 with 21 homers and 68 RBIs with the Atlanta Braves. Ozuna has also hit 100 total homers over his last three seasons and now joins Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe as incoming hitters designed to give the Bucs some offensive oomph to complement their top-notch starting pitcher rotation.

Ozuna also carries 296 lifetime dingers, as well as a .269 lifetime average. He’s also been pretty healthy for his age, playing in 145, 162 and 144 games respectively over the last three seasons. However, Ozuna has struggled in his career when playing in Pittsburgh, hitting .225 with just one homer in 36 games played inside of PNC Park.

In addition to the Braves, Ozuna has also played for the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins. He had perhaps his best season of his career with the Marlins in 2017, hitting .312 with 37 homers and 124 RBIs on the year.

This is likely the final signing for the Bucs before pitchers and catchers report later this week. The Pirates have balanced out their offense with another right-handed hitter and continue to add pieces around star pitcher Paul Skenes.

What do you think, BD? Is this signing enough to put the Pirates over the hump to contend in the division? Many were thinking the Bucs to be around a .500 club or slightly better. What does this do to your expectations on the year? Tell us in the comments.

MLB Trade Rumors: The Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers have agreed to a trade that would send third baseman Caleb Durbin from Milwaukee to Boston in exchange for pitchers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan and utility man David Hamilton, per multiple reports.

This is what happens when spring training is looming. Mickey Gilley used to sing that the girls all get prettier at closing time, a paean to how people get less choosy when there’s an imminent deadline. The Red Sox tried to bring last year’s third baseman, Alex Bregman, back, only to see him go to the Chicago Cubs. As mentioned in the Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal piece linked in the Ozuna post from about a half hour ago, Boston was in discussions on a potential Brendan Donovan trade with the Cardinals, either to get Donovan directly or to acquire Isaac Paredes from the Astros in a three-way deal that would see Donovan go to Houston.

Donovan ended up going to Seattle, and the Red Sox apparently haven’t been able to work anything out for Paredes, whose strong pull tendencies would potentially be a fit at Fenway, with the Green Monster, much as it is in Houston with the Crawford Boxes, leaving Boston still in search of a righthanded hitting infielder.

Thus the pivot to Durbin, who came seemingly out of nowhere in 2025 to finish third in the National League Rookie of the Year balloting. Durbin turns 26 in February, and was originally a 14th round pick in 2021 by the Atlanta Braves from Washington University in St. Louis, where my buddy from high school, Vivek, went to college. He was traded to the Yankees after the 2022 season, along with Indigo Diaz, for Lucas Luetge, then shipped to Milwaukee last offseason in the Devin Williams trade.

Durbin had never made BA’s top 30 prospect list for any of his clubs until cracking the list for Milwaukee prior to the 2025 season, when he was 23rd. He’s a Slappy McSlapperson, someone who doesn’t strike out, doesn’t walk much, and doesn’t hit the ball hard. He slashed .256/.334/.387 in 136 games for the Brewers last year, with OBP being boosted by a league-leading 24 HBPs — he was hit almost as many times as he walked (30). He put up a 2.6 fWAR and 2.8 bWAR. He also played second base and shortstop, and his profile seems to be more like a good utility guy, though if he can consistently put up 2-3 WAR (an open question, I admit) he’s a viable starting third baseman.

The package going back to Milwaukee isn’t terribly inspiring. Milwaukee gets Kyle Harrison, who the Red Sox got from the San Francisco Giants as part of the Rafael Devers trade last summer, a move that ultimately has led to Boston scrambling to field a third baseman this winter. They also got Jordan Hicks, who they foisted upon the ChiSox earlier this month, in that deal. Harrison is a 24 year old lefty and former top prospect who had a middling 2024 season, split his time between AAA and the majors with San Francisco before being traded, and then spent most of his time in the Red Sox org in AAA, getting just two starts and a relief appearance in September.

Drohan, 27, was a fifth rounder out of Florida State in 2020 who struggled early in his career, missed time due to injuries in 2024 and 2025, but had success in 2025, putting up a 2.27 ERA in 47 innings over 12 appearances at AAA. He could be useful, or he could get hurt again. Who knows.

Hamilton, 28, is a Texas native and UT product who was originally drafted by the Brewers in the 8th round in 2019, then traded to Boston after the 2021 season in the Hunter Renfroe/Jackie Bradley Jr. trade. He put up a 2.6 bWAR in just 98 games in 2024 while playing shortstop and slashing .248/.303/.395, then cratered to a .198/.257/.333 slash line in 2025, a cautionary tale, perhaps, for the Durbin believers.

UPDATE — Reports indicate that the Red Sox are also getting infielders Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler and a competitive balance B pick, which appears to be the #67 overall pick.

Monasterio, 28, bounced around a while before signing with Milwaukee as a minor league free agent after the 2021 season. He made his major league debut in 2023, and has spent the past three seasons in a utility role, slashing .250/.321/.351 in 219 games.

Siegler, 26, was a first round pick of the Yankees in 2018, but didn’t make the majors until 2025, with Milwaukee. He slashed .194/.292/.210 in 34 games, primarily at third base, though he also had a .285/.414/.478 slash line in 72 games in AAA, which represents the best season he’s had in the minors in his career.

Both players have options remaining.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Boston Red Sox have a third baseman!

As first reported by Jeff Passan (who else?) the Red Sox have acquired 25-year-old Caleb Durbin in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers. Heading the other way are Kyle Harrison, David Hamilton, and Shane Drohan.

We’ll have more on Durbin soon, but the quick and dirty is that he plays a position of need, bats from the right side of the plate, and had a strong if unspectacular rookie year for the Brewers in 2025, slashing .256/.338/.387 with 11 homers and 18 steals in 136 games. His OPS+ was right at league average at 101, while his WAR numbers were 2.8 from Baseball Reference and 2.6 from FanGraphs.

As his slash line shows, Durbin has very little power. His offensive value comes from a good batting eye and a near elite ability to make contact and avoid strikeouts. The 9.9% strikeout rate he posted last year would have easily been the best mark on the Red Sox, nearly two full points lower than the next best rate, posted by Masataka Yoshida. He’s a pull hitter so moving to Fenway could give him a boost in the power department, but don’t expect too much there, as Durbin is just 5’7 and has an extremely slow bat. He just doesn’t hit the ball hard at all.

Defensively, he’s still learning to play third after bouncing around the diamond throughout the minors (where he actually spent more time at second). He doesn’t have a particularly strong arm and he had exactly zero Outs Above Average last year, making him (duh) exactly average in the field. Given that he’s still relatively new to the position, there might be some room for growth there.

Coming along to Boston in the deal will be Andruw Monasterio, a 28-year-old infielder who has been a Quad-A type for most of his career, Anthony Siegler, a 26-year-old who has split most of his minor league innings between catcher and second base, and a compensation round draft pick. I wouldn’t get too excited about either Monasterio or Siegler — there’s a good chance the Brewers would have DFA’d both of them in the near future.

So here we go: Spring Training is getting underway and it looks like Craig Breslow is done for now. Durbin fills a need, but he’s not exactly the bat the Red Sox wanted going into the offseason. Carry us now, Roman Anthony.

In Mariners news…

• ICYMI: The Mariners are sending 16 players to the 2026 World Baseball Classic, the most of any MLB team.
• Daniel Kramer at MLB.com details everything fans need to know about Spring Training this year.
• Shannon Drayer at Seattle Sports 710 AM ponders if the Mariners’ current roster is better now than last October.

Around the league…

• Outfielder MJ Melendez has agreed to a one-year/$1.5 million deal including $500,000 in incentives.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates and Boston Red Sox are among multiple teams interested in Houston Astros infielder Isaac Paredes.
• Recently retired MLB veterans Clayton Kershaw, Anthony Rizzo, and Joey Votto will join NBC Sports’ MLB coverage throughout the 2026 season.

Becca’s picks…

• Time to party like it’s 2014: The Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl Champions!!!

The people have spoken and left-handed pitcher Josh Hartle is our No. 19 Cleveland Guardians prospect for 2026. Hartle commanded 31.6% of the vote, defeating the likes of the likes of Andrew Walters (21.1%), Austin Peterson (11.6%), Jacob Cozart (8.4%) and Petey Halpin (8.4%).

Hartle was a third round draft pick out of Wake Forest by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024. Supposedly, Cleveland was interested in taking him at the time, but the Pirates got to Hartle first (and the Guardians ended up selecting Joey Oakie later that round, so it was a win-win).

The 6-foot-6 southpaw pitched just 1.2 innings the year he was drafted in one appearance at Single-A. He then was traded to Cleveland in the Spencer Horwitz deal. With Luis Ortiz doing you-know-what, Hartle is now the headliner of that deal.

Cleveland sent Hartle straight to High-A to begin 2025 and he pitched tremendously well there. Over the course of 22 starts, he posted an elite 2.35 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 3.06 FIP. He struck out 24% of batters and walked 8.9%. He also was named the Midwest League Pitcher of the Year.

Hartle earned a cup of coffee at Double-A, where he made two starts and pitched reasonably well. He’ll likely begin the 2026 campaign there.

Despite his size, Hartle isn’t a burner with elite velocity. He sits in the low 90s and touches about 94 mph with his fastball. His changeup currently is his best pitch and his cutter and slider aren’t too far behind. While he hasn’t flashed elite strikeout stuff, he has done a good job of mitigating hard contact.

Now, it’s time to determine who is number 20 in the Guardians’ loaded farm system and you now have a whopping 10 players to choose from! Your options are below:

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Robert Arias, OF (Age 19)
2025 (ACL) 198 PA, .287/.389/.402, 2 HR, 29 SB, 14.6 BB%, 11.1 K%, 116 wRC+

A top Cleveland international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2024, Arias has easily walked more than striking out and had a strong stateside debut last year in the Complex League.

Jacob Cozart, C (Age 23)
2025 (A+) 308 PA, .229/.344/.364, 7 HR, 0 SB, 13.3 BB%, 21.1K%, 106 wRC+
2025 (AA) 94 PA, .256/.330/.390, 2 HR, 0 SB, 8.5 BB%, 25.5K%, 113 wRC+

Selected as a defense-first catcher with some pop in the second round of the 2024 MLB Draft, Cozart had above-average offensive seasons at both High-A and Double-A in 2025.

Dauri Fernandez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 176 PA, .333/.398/.558, 6 HR, 16 SB, 9.1 BB%, 12.5 K%, 147 wRC+
2025 (A): 24 PA, .273/.250/.318, 0 HR, 2 SB, 0 BB%, 12.5 K%, 57 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top performers in the Arizona Complex League in 2025. Undersized, but makes solid contact and doesn’t strike out often. Earned a small taste of full-season ball at the end of the year.

Jogly Garcia, RHP (Age 22)
2025 (A): 8 G, 30.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 42.9 K%, 11.1 BB%, 1.04 WHIP
2025 (A+): 3 G, 8.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 24.3 K%, 8.1 BB%, 1.32 WHIP

Another international prospect signed out of Venezuela, Garcia exploded into relevance with a sensational start to the 2025 season before getting derailed by injury.

Franklin Gomez, LHP (Age 20)
w/ Mets 2025 (A): 14 G, 82.0 IP, 1.85 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 21.4 K%, 11.7 BB%, 1.09 WHIP
w/ Mets 2025 (A+): 6 GS, 48.2 IP, 1.70 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 23.4 K%, 9.9 BB%, 1.83 WHIP

Acquired from the Mets in a trade for international bonus cash, Gomez lit up Single-A in his age-19 season, then improved his walk and strikeout numbers after being promoted to High-A.

Petey Halpin, OF (Age 23)
2025 (AAA) 553 PA, .249/.321/.414, 14 HR, 15 SB, 9.2 BB%, 28.2 K%, 95 wRC+
2025 (MLB): 8 PA, .333/.500/.333, 0 HR, 0 SB, 25.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 157 wRC+

Earned a cup of coffee in Cleveland last season after an average year at Triple-A at age 23. Impressed with five runs scored in just six games played with the Guardians.

Austin Peterson, RHP (Age 26)
2025 (AA): 11 GS, 55.0 IP, 1.47 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 23.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, 0.84 WHIP
2025 (AAA): 15 GS, 90.2 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 20.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 1.37 WHIP

Absolutely dominated Double-A to begin 2025 looking well on his way to repeating his tremendous 2024 season, but then struggled after an early-season promotion to Triple-A. Remains on the 40-man roster.

Gabriel Rodriguez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 122 PA, .294/.393/.402, 1 HR, 11 SB, 12.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 116 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top recent international signings, Rodriguez put up strong offensive numbers in his stateside debut in his age-18 season in 2025. Expected to transition to full-season ball this year.

Andrew Walters, RHP (Age 25)
2025 (AAA): 12 G, 12.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.91 FIP, 46.0 K%, 18.0 BB%, 1.17 WHIP
2025 (MLB): 2 G, 1.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 9.89 FIP, 33.3 K%, 0.0 BB%, 1.50 WHIP

Walters maintains his rookie status due to limited MLB appearances because of an injury in 2025. If he returns at 100%, he’ll once again be a factor in the back end of Cleveland’s vaunted bullpen.

Our list so far:
1. Chase DeLauter, LHH OF
2. Travis Bazzana, LHH 2B
3. Parker Messick, LHP
4. Ralphy Velazquez, LHH 1B/RF
5. Angel Genao, SH SS
6. Braylon Doughty, RHP
7. Cooper Ingle, LHH C
8. Khal Stephen, RHP
9. Juan Brito, SH 2B/1B/RF/3B
10. Jaison Chourio, SH OF
11. Kahlil Watson, LHH OF
12. Daniel Espino, RHP
13. George Valera, LHH OF
14. Jace LaViolette, LHH OF
15. Joey Oakie, RHP
16. Alfonsin Rosario, RHH OF
17. Juneiker Caceres, LHH OF
18. Yorman Gomez, RHP
19. Josh Hartle, LHP

Baseball is all about probabilities, and that theorem also applies to prospects trying to become big leaguers. All players in professional ball have talent, of course; it’s just that the competition level is so high and the margin for error so thin that there is a chance of failure for just about everyone.

So what makes for a high-probability position player talent? Being able to consistently hit pitches very hard is deeply important. Plate discipline—both in the ability to draw walks and avoid striking out too much—is also important. So, too, is the ability to play competent defense, especially at a premium position. And while good tools are nice, players who utilize their toolsets to dominate competition in the Minor Leagues are more likely to succeed than those who struggle. 

If that previous paragraph sounds like I’m describing Carter Jensen, that’s because it is. The Kansas City Royals selected Jensen with the 78th pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Park Hill High School, whose campus is a quick 25-minute drive away from Kauffman Stadium. And while all high schoolers have high risk, Jensen has blossomed into a really promising player and made his MLB debut last September.

Prospect lists aren’t everything, but they give a good sense of how industry professionals who have watched and evaluated more baseball than you or I ever will think of a player—and Jensen is regarded quite well. MLB.com lists Jensen as the 18th best prospect in the game. The Athletic has Jensen at 10th overall. Baseball Prospectus has Jensen at 44th overall. Baseball America lists Jensen as the 11th best prospect.

And yet, man, I think people are still sleeping on Jensen. 

That’s because of the third factor, the secret sauce if you will, in the cauldron of traits that contribute to probability that a minor leaguer will make it: age. We see players hit well all the time in Minor League Baseball, and even do so at the upper levels. Most players who do so, however, are old for the league. Remember deep cut Royals prospect Balbino Fuenmayor? He hit an absurd .358/.384/.589 across Double-A and Triple-A in 2015. But he did so while already playing in his age-25 season. 

Jensen has been excellent throughout the minor leagues, and has consistently done so at very young ages. And in fact, last year’s campaign put Jensen in extremely rarified air. I went and pulled all players who met this qualifications over the last decade:

• In age-21 or younger season
• Minimum 400 plate appearances
• At least 1 PA in Triple-A
• Walk rate above 12%
• Strikeout rate below 25%
• Isolated slugging percentage above .200
• wRC+ of at least 130

Jensen was one such player. But across the thousands of players who have played in the Minors during that time, there are only eight other players who qualify. It’s a good list, featuring three Rookie of the Year winners, a Rookie of the Year top-three finalist, an MVP award winner, a current top prospect, and multiple other productive big leaguers. 

#	Name	Team	Level	Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
2025	Jett Williams	NYM	AA,AAA	21	572	13.3%	22.9%	0.261	0.363	0.465	136
2025	Carter Jensen	KCR	AA,AAA	21	492	12.2%	24.8%	0.290	0.377	0.501	136
2024	Roman Anthony	BOS	AA,AAA	20	540	14.6%	23.5%	0.291	0.396	0.498	147
2023	Coby Mayo	BAL	AA,AAA	21	614	15.1%	24.1%	0.290	0.410	0.563	153
2022	Gunnar Henderson	BAL	AA,AAA	21	503	15.7%	23.1%	0.297	0.416	0.531	152
2022	Corbin Carroll	ARI	AA,AAA,CPX	21	442	15.2%	24.2%	0.307	0.425	0.610	144
2022	Francisco Alvarez	NYM	AA,AAA	20	495	14.1%	24.8%	0.260	0.374	0.511	137
2021	Spencer Torkelson	DET	A+,AA,AAA	21	530	14.5%	21.5%	0.267	0.383	0.552	150
2016	Cody Bellinger	LAD	AA,AAA	20	477	12.6%	19.7%	0.271	0.365	0.507	147

But Jensen didn’t stop there: he is one of only four players in the last decade to fit all of those categories and also make his MLB debut the same year. The three players who qualify for that extra category are Gunnar Henderson (2023 AL RoY winner), Corbin Carroll (2023 NL RoY winner), and Francisco Alvarez (career 105 wRC+ and 6.6 fWAR in only 304 career games). 

To quote the indomitable Adam Savage, failure is always an option; Coby Mayo’s big league career to date is a testament to that truth. Jensen could always end up on the Mayo path. And yet, probabilities are what they are, and given the skills that Jensen has already shown—elite exit velocity, excellent plate discipline, solid contact ability, and a knack for adjusting to continually more difficult pitching at a young age—it is very likely that Jensen is very good very quickly. 

Despite a very strong resume, Jensen is viewed mostly as an afterthought in the American League Rookie of the Year prediction circuit. MLB Pipeline recently interviewed 44 front office officials, and only three of them predicted that he’d win. 

Maybe that’s good for Jensen. We all saw what kind of pressure Jac Caglianone was under last year. In any case, Jensen should be getting more buzz. He’s ready. He’s gonna be good. And it’ll be fun to watch.

14. Roc Riggio (294 points, 19 ballots)

Riggio, who was the headline prospect in the Jake Bird trade with the Yankees near last year’s trade deadline, is a decent up-the-middle defender who has both power and patience at the plate, all in a compact 5’9” package. The 23-year-old lefty-hitting, righty-throwing second baseman had a breakout 2025, tearing up High-A and Double-A for the Yankees before joining the Rockies organization (where he didn’t quite keep up that torrid pace).

Riggio was a well-regarded player out of high school, but a commitment to Oklahoma State resulted in a fall to the 11th round in 2021 (though he didn’t sign with the Brewers who had drafted him there). Two strong years with Josh Holliday’s team (including a 1.139 OPS his draft year) led to Riggio getting drafted in the fourth round of 2023 by the Yankees and signing for a $693k bonus that was almost $200k over the slot value.

As a professional, Riggio was solid in his first full year of professional ball in 2024, putting up a walk-heavy 117 wRC+ (.221/.349/.397) with 11 homers and 27 steals in High-A at a league-average age. In 2025, Riggio was delayed a month by a hand injury and went back to High-A. He quickly showed that he had mastered the level, hitting .264/.436/.597 with six homers in 94 plate appearances while walking 21% of the time, which was a 195 wRC+. That earned Riggio a promotion to Double-A, where he was slightly below league average age.

Against upper minors pitching, Riggio kept on hitting well. In 170 plate appearances with New York’s Double-A affiliate, he hit 11 homers and 10 doubles en route to a .261/.335/.542 line (155 wRC+, though he only walked in 8% of PA) before getting traded away to the Rockies at the deadline. Riggio was assigned to Hartford (which is the same league he was beating up on in the Yankees system), where his power surge diminished a bit. Riggio hit .256/.346/.389 with two homers and six doubles in 107 plate appearances (113 wRC+), buoyed by a 13% walk rate. Those Hartford numbers were bolstered by an excellent September in which Riggio put up a .905 OPS in 39 plate appearances. In the field, Riggio committed seven errors in 66 games at second base.

Here’s a look at Riggio’s 2024 offensive and defensive highlights, beginning with a double play that has to be seen to be believed and which shows Riggio’s baseball IQ (as does his straight steal of home later in the video):

There is some divisiveness around Riggio as a prospect. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com has been highest on Riggio, ranking him second in the system and 120th overall in MLB last week (no writeup), while Keith Law of the Athletic didn’t rank Riggio in his top 20 earlier this month. Law wrote that:

Riggio is an undersized second baseman who swings straight up, somehow slugging over .500 in Double-A Somerset in 40 games, then slugging .389 at the same level in Hartford afterward. I don’t think he’s more than an emergency call-up

MLB.com recently ranked Riggio as the ninth best second base prospect in the sport with a 45 FV grade, though without any standout tools:

As an undersized masher who doesn’t get cheated at the plate, Riggio has reminded some of a left-handed-hitting Dustin Pedroia type, albeit without the same pure hit tool. With an open stance and a leg kick, he thrives on getting the ball in the air to his pull side, with the bulk of his 20 homers a year ago leaving the yard that way. He’s not afraid to work counts or draw walks and can punish fastballs, but while his overall approach is solid, he struggles with breaking stuff (40 percent miss rate in 2025) and didn’t handle lefties well.

While he’s a below-average runner, Riggio likes to move on the basepaths, though he was less successful last year when attempting to steal. He’s likely limited to second base, but he has enough skills to perhaps stick at the keystone as a bat-first regular, with perhaps a floor on the long end of a platoon.

Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs liked Riggio the most of the Rockies’ trade acquisitions (ranking him 10th among players dealt at the deadline and comparing him to Roughned Odor in both skill and demeanor) and grades him as a 45 FV player, seventh in the system with a 60 future grade on fielding to go with 55 grades on power:

Lefty-hitting infielders with this kind of bat speed are uncommon, and the Yankees made changes to Riggio’s swing (he has a much bigger leg kick now) that have made it more athletic and seem to have positively impacted his plate coverage. He’s been more dangerous than vulnerable against pitches out away from him this year, and had a 55% hard-hit rate around the midway point of the summer. Riggio is no slouch as a defender, either, even though he is likely limited to second base. His surface stats are a caricature of his true talent because the hitting environments at Hudson Valley and Somerset are favorable, but this is still an “arrow up” prospect who is starting to look like a potential everyday second baseman.

Riggio has big league-regular potential at second base thanks to his power/patience combo, defensive instincts, and overall baseball IQ. I’m excited about his offensive potential with the Rockies and am inclined to round up his likelihood of reaching that potential, ranking him sixth on my ballot as a 45 FV player. Riggio will be in the upper minors scrum in 2026 but figures to compete for a big-league roster spot with post-prospects Adael Amador and Ryan Ritter before he’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season.

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