NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 30: A view of the field is seen after game two of the American League Wild Card Series between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on September 30, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
The 2026 MLB Playoffs continue today with Game 3 of the ALDS and Game 4 of the NLDS.
As of the time I am writing this, the NLDS games from Tuesday have not yet been played. So at this point I’m not sure if there will be two NLDS games or just the one. But I’ll include info for both just in case. As usual, all games will have national radio coverage on ESPN Radio.
Here’s what’s on deck for today.
1:00 p.m. PT – Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox – TBS/HBO Max
Expected Starters: Daniel Espino (RHP) vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP)
3:00 p.m. PT – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves – Fox Sports 1/Fox One
5:00 p.m. PT – Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees – TBS/HBO Max
Expected Starters: Nick Martinez vs. Max Fried
7:00 p.m. PT – (If Necessary) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres – Fox Sports 1/Fox One
(No starters listed as of the time this is being written. If the game ends up being played, you can check down in the comments to see who is expected to start.)
As usual, my loyalties lie with the Not-Dodgers, so let’s go Braves. Then I guess I’m going with the White Sox, Rays and Padres, if they’ve managed to stay alive.
DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 06: The Colorado Rockies host an end-of-season press conference with club President Walker Monfort, left, and President of Baseball Operations Paul DePodesta at Coors Field on Tuesday, October 06, 2026, in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images) | Denver Post via Getty Images
Good morning, Purple Row!
We have so much to talk about!
On Tuesday, Walker Monfort and Paul DePodesta met with media to debrief on the 2026 Colorado Rockies season. What was the focus? How to fix starting pitching, the role of the Penner Sports Group, and what worked and what didn’t — along with a plethora of other topics.
(Look for my recap later this morning.)
In the meantime, here’s what others took away in addition to a few other articles I thought might interest you.
Rockies won’t be sold to Broncos owners, Walker Monfort says | Denver Post ($) — When asked the question, Monfort was clear: “There is not a plan (to sell the team).” He stressed that the Penner Group had helped the Rockies with debt reduction. “We keep in touch with them,” Walker Monfort said. “Obviously, right now, they’re very heavily focused on the Broncos, which we’re constantly rooting for. . . . We meet on occasion.”
Overall, I’m ambivalent about Ryan Spilborghs and Troy Renck’s podcast. But I’m going to recommend that you listen to at least the first seven minutes of this one. Renck explains the Rockies finances and the Penner Group’s involvement. It’s worth your time.
Around MLB
It’s October; here’s where the CBA battle stands | marcnormandin.com — Marc Normandin has long covered MLB labor disputes. I found this column to be especially helpful (because he covers a lot of ground) and enlightening (he discusses the TV deal). Yes, there is a Dick Monfort shoutout.
What’s behind Ohtani’s NLDS struggles? It’s complicated … | MLB.com — After returning from the Injured List, Shohei Ohtani has yet to produce at the level Dodgers fans would hope. Manager Dave Robers says it’s complicated, according to Sonja Chen: “Roberts said he sees a combination of factors impacting Ohtani’s performance. He may in part be compensating for the injuries he has dealt with for the past several months. He also may be knocking off rust after only taking 36 plate appearances in the month before the postseason.”
Five pressing questions facing D-backs — D-backs Beat — It’s always a good idea to keep up with the Rockies fellow NL West travelers. According to Steve Gilbert, the Snakes have questions they will need to answer surrounding coaching staff, first base, and their second baseman Ketel Marte.
The White Sox won the Garrett Crochet trade | Mayday! — It’s hard to disagree with David Korn that the White Sox came out on the better end of this trade given that they got catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth, RHP Wikelman Gonzalez in return for Garrett Crochet. (In case you missed it, Crochet’s Wild Card return did not go well.)
The Orioles gave up two productive veterans at the 2025 trade deadline, and Boston Bateman was the main reason why. One year later, the towering lefty looks like a smart bet and one of the most intriguing arms in Baltimore’s system.
Back in 2024, the Padres took Bateman with the 52nd pick in the draft out of Adolfo Camarillo High School in California and signed him for $2.5 million. Last July, San Diego agreed to part with the 6-foot-8, 240-pound southpaw, shipping him to Baltimore as part of the eight-player deal that saw Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano become Padres. That summer, Bateman made two starts at Delmarva after the trade, and three more at High-A Aberdeen, posting a 3.93 ERA over 75.2 innings across both levels.
The Orioles started Bateman at Frederick in 2026, and he settled in quickly. He was named the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Month for May after posting a 0.89 ERA over 20.1 innings. His best start that month came on May 20 against Greenville, when he threw 5.2 scoreless innings with six strikeouts. By early summer, Bateman had struck out 59 batters in 45.1 innings with a 3.38 ERA.
The second half was bumpier. A hip issue after the All-Star break led the Orioles to limit Bateman’s innings as a precaution. The big lefty still finished strong, with five consecutive scoreless starts over the month of August, and a 3.65 ERA over the regular season, striking out 117 batters in 86.1 innings and walking 48. That’s 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings, and he gave up only five home runs all year.
Bateman saved his best outing for last. He struck out a career-high 10 batters over five innings in Game 1 of the South Atlantic League North Division playoffs on September 8, and the Keys routed Greensboro 13-1. The Grasshoppers won the next two games to end Frederick’s season, but Bateman had made an entrance.
Anthony Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa and Caden Hunter grabbed most of the pitching headlines on the farm this summer, and all three finished the year at Double-A. Bateman’s season got less attention, but it’s worth remembering that he’s a year or two younger than that trio and still learning how to command a very big frame.
MLB Pipeline ranks Bateman as Baltimore’s 11th-best prospect, and Baseball America has him at No. 10. He hasn’t joined Booth, Eyanson, Dzierwa and Hunter on Pipeline’s Top 100 yet, but a strong start to next season in the upper minors could change that quickly.
Bateman’s arsenal is very interesting. His fastball averaged 95.4 MPH early in the season, sat in the upper 90s and touched 100. His slider is his best secondary pitch, and he also throws a curveball and changeup. Said current Frederick manager Collin Woody, then of Delmarva, “Oh my God, the stuff is super legit.” One of the more encouraging signs from 2026 was that Bateman relied less on his fastball. He threw the slider and changeup more often and got more chases and whiffs as a result.
The walks are the obvious problem. Bateman averaged five walks per nine innings—not unusual for a pitcher his size, as tall pitchers often take longer to repeat their mechanics. Bateman has said that consistent pitch shapes and a repeatable delivery are his priorities. If the control improves even to average, the strikeout stuff gives him a real chance to start.
He’ll likely open 2027 in Chesapeake’s rotation. MLB.com estimated this spring that he was about two years from a big league debut, so 2028 is a more realistic target than next season. That timeline works fine for Baltimore. The Orioles need left-handed starting pitching, and Dzierwa, Hunter and Luis De León are all in line ahead of Bateman. Having another high-ceiling lefty a level behind them gives the organization depth and options as the rotation takes shape.
Bateman will finally face some adversity at Double-A, where advanced hitters will lay off pitches out of the zone. He’ll have to throw strikes to get by there in a way he didn’t always have to in A-ball.
Orioles fans know pitching prospects don’t always pan out. Unlike Hunter, Bateman will carry some expectations as the main return for two popular veterans. He doesn’t seem bothered by that. “Failure is no longer in my vocabulary,” he said this summer, and in August he added that “we’ll be getting a ring in Baltimore.”
That’s a bold prediction from someone who just turned 21, and Bateman shouldn’t be considered a can’t-miss prospect yet. But a big lefty who throws close to 100 and has improving secondary pitches is exactly the kind of prospect who can jump up the rankings in a hurry.
High drama is afoot in the MLB postseason, which is always a delightful thing to see unfold. Whether it’s Shohei Ohtani’s unexpected postseason slump (or was it really unexpected considering he’s been battling injuries the latter half of the season?), or Mason Miller tipping pitches (he claims he wasn’t!), or the Yankees just dropping the ball throughout their series against the Rays, it has been a very interesting week of postseason ball.
We’ll get into all that and more below, so let’s just jump right into it.
This might be right up there with “game in a National Park” as the dumbest idea MLB has had this season.
Parents spend months trying to get their baby’s first word to be ‘Mama’ or ‘Dada.’ This book is for parents with bigger dreams.
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The committee recommended rezoning of an area of about 68 acres located south of Pershing Road, west of Gillham Road, north of E. 27th Street and east of Main Street. It also recommended recommendations of the Tax Increment Financing Commission to enact a new stadium impact area policy.
Finally, it recommended the issuance of approximately $600 million in bonds to pay the city’s portion of the $1.9 billion stadium. The Royals also plan an associated billion-dollar mixed use development and reimagined Crown Center in partnership with Hallmark Cards that will be privately funded.
“This is a long investment, a large investment, the stakes are very high,” Councilman Crispin Rea said during Tuesday’s committee meeting.
Before the city authorizes the $600 million in bonds by the Missouri Development Finance Board they wanted to make sure they’d be able to collect enough taxes over the next 30 years to pay back an estimated nearly $1.4 billion in debt service.
Jackson County has some ideas for what to do with Truman Sports Complex after the Kansas City Chiefs and Kansas City Royals no longer call it home.
Kansas City plans to finance much of its $600 million contribution by borrowing money and paying it back over decades. By the time the debt is paid off, the city expects to have paid more than twice that amount in principal and interest — about $1.393 billion. This Hunden analysis says our plan will produce just enough in tax revenue to cover that: the aforementioned $1.4 billion. But remember, Kansas City had already settled on its $600 million commitment before Hunden finished this analysis. Now the study has arrived, and it projects almost exactly the amount of revenue to cover the cost of the borrowing. Are Kansas City’s city leaders really such financial savants that they picked the right number months before the analysis was finished? Or were Hunden’s projections tortured until they produced a number just high enough to make the deal pencil out? You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to suspect the latter.
Kansas City remembers Buck O’Neil, a baseball man through and through with decades of ties to the area. It has been 20 years since the Hall of Famer passed away.
Phil Shafer, a muralist with Sike Style, helped create a mural on 3rd and Broadway in Kansas City preserving O’Neil’s passion for storytelling.
“He had a good sense of humor. He was really all about championing other people,” Shafer said. “He was a really good connector that way. He wanted people to feel like they could come and talk to him, and he could tell his stories to them.”
Nelson said O’Neil made everyone feel at home.
The Royals kept O’Neil’s seat at Kauffman Stadium after he served the franchise as a scout.
The veteran left-hander came to Atlanta at the trade deadline along with outfielder Lane Thomas. Falter tossed two scoreless outings with the Braves. It was a nice bounceback showing after he was crushed for 15 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings in Kansas City. Falter has shuffled between multiple organizations over the past few seasons. He’s been a useful swingman, outside of his stint with the Royals. Falter is the most likely candidate of this group to find an MLB gig in 2027.
But with a flawed roster at the moment, the team needed an opportunity to inject more talent all around. Wacha was the chance to achieve that. Meanwhile parting ways with Lugo would have given the Royals the chance to free up money to use in free agency this offseason. Now it seems unlikely that Royals GM J.J. Picollo will have the funds to pursue any significant free agent talent.
The Royals holding onto Wacha and Lugo at the deadline was certainly a bold strategy. But the team will have a hard time justifying their willingness to run it back in 2027 if their roster is plagued with the same concerns as this season.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 06: Chris Sale #51 of the Atlanta Braves reacts during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game three of the National League Division Series at Truist Park on October 06, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Atlanta Braves had an unfortunate Tuesday and fell behind in Game 3 of the NLDS after a 3-1 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Chris Sale got the start, and though he recorded seven strikeouts, he did not have his sharpest stuff. In the fourth inning, he surrendered two home runs that put the Braves in a 3-0 hole.
In other unfortunate news, the Atlanta offense was unable to provide run support. The Dodgers pitching staff limited the Braves to just five hits all game. Atlanta went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and left six men on base.
With elimination on the line, the series continues at Truist Park tonight at 6:00 ET.
More Braves News:
Ronald Acuña Jr. was moved to DH due to a sore knee. He has reportedly been dealing with the issue since Game 2 of the series.
MLB News:
Alex Cora has informed the Philadelphia Phillies that he plans to take 2027 off. Cora was fired by the Boston Red Sox during the 2026 season.
Oct 6, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; A general view of the MLB 2026 Postseason logo before game three of the NLDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs between Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Dodgers have a chance to close out the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 of the National League Division Series on Wednesday night at Truist Park in Atlanta.
A trio of familiar Dodgers stalwarts in October fueled the win in Game 3 on Tuesday, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto striking out 10 in seven strong innings, plus home runs by Kiké Hernández and Freddie Freeman to supply the three runs of offense that were somehow enough to get the Dodgers within a win of a third straight trip to the NLCS.
Game 4 is a battle of Tylers on the mound, with Glasnow pitching for the Dodgers and Mahle starting for the Braves.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 03: Ryan McMahon #19 of the New York Yankees runs onto the field during player introductions before game one of the American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on October 03, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
“Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never!—All the armies of Europe, Asia, and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years.
“At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide”
Abraham Lincoln here is talking about the dangers of mob rule, of sedition and the undermining of institutions, at 28, some 23 years before he would be tasked with holding the Union together. What I’m about to talk about carries significantly less weight than abolishing chattel slavery, and yet the rhetoric holds true. The New York Yankees will win their 28th World Series, or die by suicide.
Cam Schlittler was tasked with knotting up the ALDS on Monday night, knowing there was little chance of an offensive breakthrough for his club. Two pitches into the game, Yandy Díaz bounced a grounder to Ryan McMahon, who is on this team because of his supposed defensive prowess. McMahon can’t get a grip on the ball, Diaz reaches on an error. Two batters later, Jazz Chisholm Jr., while falling backwards after getting a forceout at second, throws the ball in the general ZIP code around first base, and Díaz scores. It was a preposterously poor idea do anything but hang onto the ball and take the one out. The Yankees were behind the eight ball already.
Two other errors meant that Schlittler, while charged with three runs overall, only had one count against him in a game where he admittedly didn’t have his best stuff. He still had to throw more pitches, against a team that makes you pay for that, and had high-stress innings bloom out of what should have been an easy start to the frame.
Two and a half weeks into this season I wrote about how the Yankees step on a lot of rakes. It was about Jazz not knowing the rules of baseball and the various other ways he can frustrate despite providing his own form of value. We’re past the point of frustration now, the Yankees’ inability to help themselves seems likely to cost them their postseason. The Rays are a very good baseball team, but the Yankees can beat them three times in a series — we saw them do just that two weeks ago. The Rays aren’t even really beating the Yankees; the Yankees are beating themselves.
Austin Wells thrown out at third base by 20 feet, with Luis Rojas waving a giant stop sign the moment the Yankees’ catcher hit second. A dozen flails at pitches well out of the zone. A runner at first to lead off the inning rather than a quick out, and the team you’re playing does not make enough of their own mistakes to let things level out.
I don’t know who to blame for this. I think the Yankees are actually coming close to deciding it’s time to make a change at manager, and I won’t shed a tear when Aaron Boone leaves the organization. Here’s the thing though: Aaron Boone doesn’t have to tell McMahon to field a groundball that hops at his waist. We keened for Boone to replace Anthony Volpe at shortstop, and George Lombard Jr. has been an error machine at that slot. The players are simply not good enough to avoid beating themselves.
If and when the Rays take the series they will have earned it. They’ve outplayed the Yankees in two games, outscoring anyone not named Ben Rice 6-0. They haven’t outplayed the Yankees by that much though, not really. The hole the Yankees find themselves in, the track set on the Blue Ridge before them, is one of their own construction.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 27, 2026: Riley Greene #31 of the Detroit Tigers reacts after striking out during the fourth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park on September 27, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
There’s something kind of fun about watching the postseason drama unfold when you don’t have a horse in the race. Sure, it would be more enjoyable to watch if the Tigers were still in it, but it’s also very fun to watch the White Sox absolutely destroy the Guardians with no worries about the outcome. It’s always fun to watch the Yankees drop the ball. And it can be very interesting to watch the stories of Shohei Ohtani slumping and Mason Miller tipping his pitches when they aren’t playing on your team.
So we’ll get into all that below, but on the Tigers’ side of things, Riley Greene has been nominated for the Hank Aaron Award this season, and we aren’t totally done making you cry about Justin Verlander.
Let’s get into it!
Detroit Tigers News
A nice nomination for Riley. The Hank Aaron Award is given to players with the best offensive performances of the season.
Congrats to Riley Greene on being nominated for the Hank Aaron Award!
Verlander then joined MLB Network as an analyst on Tuesday night, surprising Freddie Freeman and Manny Machado, who were not expecting to be interviewed by the Tigers great only days after his retirement.
Freddie Freeman wasn’t expecting Justin Verlander to be the one asking the postgame questions. 😂
Before answering, he made sure to congratulate Verlander on his retirement.
Parents spend months trying to get their baby’s first word to be ‘Mama’ or ‘Dada.’ This book is for parents with bigger dreams.
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In the afternoon, the Los Angeles Dodgers, up 2-1 in their series, take on the Atlanta Braves in a crucial Game 4. The Dodgers are one win away from advancing, while the Braves will be fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive in front of their home crowd.
1952 – In Game 7 of the World Series, second baseman Billy Martin makes a dramatic running catch on a high infield pop with the bases loaded as the New York Yankees win their fourth consecutive World Championship by downing the Brooklyn Dodgers, 4-2.
1995 – Edgar Martinez of the Seattle Mariners hits a tie-breaking grand slam in the eighth inning and drives in seven runs – the most ever in a postseason game to date – leading the Mariners past the New York Yankees, 11-8, and sending the ALDS to a decisive Game 5.
2011 – The Cardinals cause a huge upset by shutting out the Phillies, 1-0, in Game 5 of the NLDS. Chris Carpenter is the hero, tossing a three-hit complete game on the road and besting Phillies ace Roy Halladay. The Cards score the game’s only run in the 1st inning when Rafael Furcal leads off the game with a triple and Skip Schumaker follows with a double.
2017 – In Game 2 of the NLDS, Chicago has a 3-1 lead heading into the bottom of the eighth, thanks to a solo homer by Willson Contreras and a two-run shot by Anthony Rizzo, both off Gio Gonzalez, but Washington explodes for five runs against Carl Edwards and Mike Montgomery to take a 6-3 win and even the series at one apiece.
1973 – Scotsman Jackie Stewart wins his third Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship despite withdrawing from the season-ending US Grand Prix at Watkins Glen; wins the title by 16 points from Emerson Fittipaldi.
1984 – Walter Payton passes Jim Brown as the NFL’s career rushing leader.
2008 – Music, podcast, and video streaming service Spotify is launched by Daniel Ek and Martin Lorentzon.
2018 – Jodie Whittaker debuts in her first full episode as the 13th and first female Doctor Who on BBC television.
BALTIMORE, MD - JUNE 01: Mr. Splash greets fans at the Youth Sports Day on June 1, 2025 at Orioles Park at Camden Yards. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Good morning Birdland,
Yesterday was just the latest in a recent run of bad days for the Baltimore Orioles. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner reported on Tuesday afternoon that the organization was laying off a significant number of business operations staff. He quoted one source calling it a “bloodbath” and relaying that the number of employees let go was at least in the teens.
Kostka explained on social media that they layoffs included members in business operations, brand, content, and game presentation. And according to an internal statement from Catie Griggs, the team’s President of Business Operations, that Kostka obtained for the story, the layoffs include several people with more than a decade of service to the organization.
It gets worse, as Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic provided additional details. She confirmed that the firings were actually 24 or more in total, including Mr. Splash and the person that portrays The Oriole Bird mascot, as well as the team photographer, people in ticket sales, graphic design, and food and beverage, among others.
What no one knows for sure at this point is why the Orioles made these layoffs. Attendance at Camden Yards this past season was slightly up, though modestly. The team tends to do quite well with local TV ratings, and 2026 was their first full season with an option to stream MASN locally.
There is an ongoing CBA negotiation that threatens to delay, shorten, or even cancel the 2027 season, which could factor in here. But if that were the reason, then something like a furlough would make more sense than a full on layoff, and an announcement on that would probably come closer to the actual season.
What feels like more of a possibility is that the Orioles are reallocating their resources elsewhere in the organization. Specifically, they plan to focus on the baseball front office. Mike Elias said near the end of the season that the team’s current baseball operations staff is “on the smaller side” and that he “would like to explore outside help and outside talent.” in order to “enhance the department, get bigger, get better.”
I can buy that the Orioles front office is relatively small and could use more help. What’s tougher for me to square is the reality that the on-field product was much better just a couple of years ago with this smaller staff, and that the answer to 2.5 years of disappointment is to double down on the leadership that got us to this point while another department gets gutted.
Again, that is not a confirmation of what is being done and why. But it is a logical connection of dots. More on the topic is sure to come out as either Griggs or someone else is willing to talk about it with reporters.
This, that and the other | Roch Kubatko Roch has some notes on the potential changes coming to the front office, specifically how the team thinks about analytics.
Orioles birthdays
Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!
Yusniel Dìaz turns 30 today. The outfielder was the centerpiece of the trade package that sent Manny Machado to the Dodgers back in 2018. Upon joining the Orioles organization, he almost immediately started to struggle, and would end up playing in just one game for the big league squad, which came in 2022.
Alex Cobb is 39 years old. Signed to be a difference-maker in the rotation ahead of the 2018 season, Cobb was instead a big disappointment, then spent most of 2019 on the IL, before salvaging his stint a bit in 2020. The Orioles eventually traded him to the Angels for prospect Jahmai Jones.
John O’Donoghue turns 87. He spent nearly a decade in Major League Baseball, including the 1968 season in Baltimore, where he had a 6.14 ERA over 22 total innings.
The late Grady Hatton (b. 1922, d. 2013) was born on this day. His time in Baltimore came near the end of his 12-season big league career. In 1956 he played in 27 games for the O’s, providing solid defense at second and third base.
This day in O’s history
2012 – The Yankees takes Game 1 of the ALDS, beating the Orioles 7-2 in Baltimore thanks to a five-run ninth inning that sees O’s closer Jim Johnson get knocked around quite a bit. CC Sabathia tosses 8.2 innings to notch the win.
2023 – The Orioles play from behind all day long against the Rangers in Game 1 of the ALDS, eventually falling 3-2 in the series opener.
CLEARWATER, MEXICO - MARCH 14: Aidan Miller #21 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws to first during the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark on Friday, March 14, 2025 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
See what happens when teams take a patient approach to Chris Sale? Maybe the Phillies should have taken a lesson or two from teams that actually had success.
No, that’s not a dispatch from topsy-turvy land. It’s their report cards following the first season Major League Baseball has utilized the Automated Ball-Strike system (ABS), courtesy of Baseball Savant’s calculations of the total run value of overturns on challenges.
ABS is the review process that uses cameras to track the precise location of a pitch in real time. Batters, catchers and pitchers can contest a ball or strike call by immediately tapping their cap or helmet. When a call is overturned, Baseball Savant measures the difference in run expectancy between the situation before the pitch/challenge and the situation after the call is flipped.
Overall, ABS overturned 54% of challenged calls. Catchers succeeded on 59% of their 5,792 challenges — changing an umpire’s “ball” call to “strike,” while batters succeeded on only 49% of their 4,765 challenges — changing a “strike” to a “ball.” Pitchers made 182 challenges — only 1.7% of the 10,557 total attempts — and only 72 were overturned (39.6%).
That shouldn’t be surprising. Catchers have a stationary view of a pitch from directly behind the plate, while batters track pitches standing from the side. Pitchers deliver the ball with their heads and several other body parts in motion.
“It’s like a new muscle for players to learn,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters. “You have instincts over what to do in certain situations. This is a new instinct of knowing when to challenge and instinctively within a second, oh, that’s a ball. What’s the situation?”
Takeaways from this high-tech, high-stakes MLB add-on that became instantly popular with fans and something of a poker hand for players:
Batters best at winning challenges didn’t necessarily produce at the plate:Jose Altuve topped all batters with 5.6 projected runs gained, followed by Seattle’s Cal Raleigh at 4.6. Yet Altuve, a .300 lifetime hitter, had his lowest batting average in 15 full seasons at .250, and Raleigh inexplicably hit only 23 homers while batting .182 one year after setting a record for catchers with 60 homers while batting .247.
Batters poor at challenges can lose their privileges: Dodgers third-year outfielder Andy Pages showed vast improvement in his patience at the plate this season, drawing 49 walks compared to the 29 he totaled in each of his first two seasons. Yet he is so bad at ABS challenges that manager Dave Roberts forbade Pages from challenging pitches after his unsuccessful challenge in the NL Division Series opener Monday.
“We talked about obviously a lot this year with Andy’s success rate or lack thereof,” Roberts said. “I didn’t revisit it before Game 1, so that’s my fault. I did have a conversation today. So, yeah, we’ve managed that one going forward.”
Pages challenged more pitches (25) than any other Dodger during the regular season, yet was unsuccessful on 14 of them, giving him an underwater success rate of 44%, roughly the same as similarly challenge-challenged teammates Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Dalton Rushing and Miguel Rojas.
Players adept at challenges need to tap their helmets more often: Each team starts the game with two challenges. Teams lose the ability to challenge after they do so incorrectly twice. That makes some players challenge-shy, especially early in a game.
Freddie Freeman (71%) had the highest success rate among Dodger regulars, yet he challenged only seven pitches all season. He desperately wanted to challenge a pitch during a game in June, but could only shake his head in frustration after a strike three call he believed was a ball. Pages had wasted the Dodgers’ second challenge on a clear strike moments earlier.
Mookie Betts was successful on 12 of 18 challenges, yet found himself tap-tied as well as tongue-tied in Game 1 of the Division Series when he led off by striking out looking on a full-count pitch clearly outside. He gave plate umpire Roberto Ortiz an astonished look and walked to the dugout shaking his head. What he didn’t do was tap his helmet to trigger a challenge.
Coming down hard on Pages was a change of tune for Roberts, who early in the season encouraged Dodgers hitters to be more aggressive making challenges. They finished the season 25th with 310 challenges and a 54.5% success rate. The Minnesota Twins led MLB with 460 challenges and the Cincinnati Red had the highest success rate at 61.6%.
Losing teams can be adept at challenges: The Reds also led MLB with 16.8 runs added through challenges, yet finished last in the NL Central. The Angels were next at 14 runs added, but that didn’t keep them from racking up 100 losses for the first time in franchise history. The Athletics (12.3) and Twins (10.1) were third and fourth in runs added, respectively, but also had losing records.
Angels aging superstar Mike Trout treated ABS challenges like a new toy, asking for four in the first five games of the season. Three were successful. Trout was expected to benefit big-time from ABS because he has always had an excellent walk rate and boasts a .405 on-base percentage in 16 seasons. Yet after the initial burst, he challenged only 10 more pitches all season, finishing with a 64% success rate.
Angels youthful hitters Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto were among the top 10 MLB players in challenges, and their success rates were better than league average at 56%. Reds infielder Sal Stewart, the odds-on favorite to win the NL rookie of the year award, led MLB with 51 challenges and was successful 28 times.
Early in the season, Angels manager Kurt Suzuki said he wasn’t going to impose hard-and-fast rules on his players that might prevent them from making a challenge they believe in. The Angels finished 11th in MLB with 369 challenges and had a 53.7% success rate.
“If you feel 100% strongly that it’s a ball,” Suzuki told the Athletic, “go ahead and challenge it.”
Winning teams can be poor at challenges: The three teams with the best records in baseball were challenge challenged. The Dodgers (100 wins) were worse than all but four of the 30 teams at minus-8.5 runs, followed by Tampa Bay (98 wins) at minus-7.8. Milwaukee (103 wins) was 20th at minus-2.4.
The worst team at challenges was Cleveland at minus-13.4, yet the Guardians won the AL Central.
What does it mean? ABS challenges produce an infinitesimal W or L, a momentary shot of euphoria or thin slice of humble pie. Yet there is little correlation between a batter’s ability to crush the ball and his ability to discern a ball from a strike when a pitch is only an inch or so inside or outside the strike zone.
The player who accumulated the most unsuccessful challenges? Future slam-dunk Hall of Famer Bryce Harper with 26. His success rate was only 45%.
Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivers in the second inning of a 3-1 win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS at Truist Park on Tuesday. (Mike Stewart / Associated Press)
He is, as the Atlanta Braves found out the hard way. Yamamoto pitched the Dodgers to within one game of the National League Championship Series, setting a postseason high with 10 strikeouts in a 3-1 victory.
In seven innings, Yamamoto gave up one run on four hits, all of them singles. In only one of those innings did Atlanta advance a runner beyond first base.
“I just have a lot of respect for him and for what he means here in L.A. and what he has accomplished here,” Skubal said. “I know we have a lot of good starting pitching, and I know there is a lot of thought that goes into it, but I just assumed he would be the Game 1 guy.”
You could say Yamamoto rises to the October occasion, but Mookie Betts would not say that, if only because Yamamoto rises to the occasion on just about every occasion.
“I don’t see it any different,” Betts said. “I think he does it all year, too.
“He just has so many weapons. He throws a lot of strikes with a lot of pitches. He’s hard to hit.”
Skubal, a two-time Cy Young winner, is brilliant in October.
In seven postseason appearances, he has a 1.97 earned-run average. He gave up five runs in one inning, and he has given up five runs in the other 44⅔ innings. The Dodgers’ grand prize from the trade deadline was hardly a reckless choice to start Game 1 of the division series.
Yamamoto has a 2.14 ERA in 11 playoff appearances, the fourth-lowest of any pitcher since 1903 to make at least 10 postseason starts. He drains the life out of an opposing crowd as well as anyone in major league history, with a 1.42 ERA in six road playoff outings.
“I’m a fan of this game as much as I am a player,” Skubal said. “So, when I watch guys do really impressive things and do great things, I understand what it takes because I also play the game.
“When he goes out and performs like he does, it’s almost like I expect it. And now, being a teammate of his, it’s not surprising at all why he goes and performs like he does, because the way he prepares is as good as anybody in this game. It’s just a ton of fun to be on the same side of it.”
Yamamoto admitted to feeling nervous, even if you would never sense it from watching him. That’s part of the way he prepares, too.
“During the preparation and before the game, then I do get nervous,” Yamamoto said through an interpreter, “but at that time, I personally think that’s very important.”
And then the game starts, the nerves dissipate, and the opponent is methodically slayed.
“He just has a way to just make pitches, calm his heartbeat,” Roberts said.
The Dodgers have played seven postseason series with Yamamoto, and they have won them all.
We’ll always cherish last October. In 76 regular-season starts with the Dodgers, he has one complete game. In back-to-back starts last October, he threw a complete game both times.
Of the Dodgers’ four victories in the World Series, Yamamoto earned three — including Game 6 as a starter and Game 7 as a reliever, with no day of rest in between.
“I got goosebumps watching that,” Skubal said. “I didn’t know how he was doing it. That’s what I was thinking: How is this going to work?
“His stuff looked even better than it did in Game 6, which is insane to say. But it did. When I was watching on TV, I was like, ‘Holy ... he looks better today than he did yesterday, and he did pretty well the day before.’ It’s incredible.
“Hopefully, we’re not having to do that again to him.”
That is one big reason why the Dodgers acquired Skubal. If Tyler Glasnow wins Wednesday — and the Dodgers won in all six of Glasnow’s postseason appearances last October — they are off to the NLCS.
The Game 1 starter could be Skubal, followed in Game 2 by Yamamoto. That’s a tall order for opposing batters and, so far, a winning order for the Dodgers.
