NEW YORK, NY - MAY 06: An overall photo before the game between the Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees on May 6, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Yankees will have to wait another day to snap out of their divisional funk. They dropped back-to-back contests against the Blue Jays earlier this week to end the four-game set at Yankee Stadium in disappointing fashion, and a slim 1-0 lead against the first-place Rays in Gerrit Cole’s long-awaited comeback from Tommy John surgery last night went up in smoke thanks to shoddy defense and relief. The previously potent New York offense has scored 3 runs in their last 30 innings of play. Inspiring!
The second game of the Yankees/Rays series was supposed to be this afternoon at 1:35pm ET, but the weather for Memorial Day weekend is awful this year. With a dismal forecast for the entire day, the Yankees and Major League Baseball have already announced that the matinee is postponed. Since the Yankees and Rays will be lucky to get in the other planned game on Sunday, the announced twin bill will not be tomorrow but rather when the Rays are in town near the end of the season, September 22nd. The split doubleheader will feature the makeup game at 1:05pm ET and the already-scheduled nightcap at 7:05pm ET.
Today's game has been rescheduled due to the forecast of sustained inclement weather and will be made up as the first game of a split-admission doubleheader on Tuesday, September 22 at 1:05 PM.
Hopefully none of you who were already planning on attending this afternoon actually made it out the door! That’s the advantage of the early postponement call for the general public.
Fingers crossed that they can get in the series finale tomorrow rather than have to schedule another doubleheader. Will Warren was expected to get the ball tomorrow at 1:35pm ET against Shane McClanahan; we’ll see if the Yankees stick to that plan or go with Ryan Weathers, who would also be on normal rest.
The star right-hander allowed two hits over six scoreless innings in his first start in 569 days after undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing the entire 2025 season.
Sunday's game is still scheduled for 1:35 p.m., but rain throughout the area could ruin fans' Memorial Day Weekend plans.
Today's game has been rescheduled due to the forecast of sustained inclement weather and will be made up as the first game of a split-admission doubleheader on Tuesday, September 22 at 1:05 PM.
The rangers prepares to battle in a scene from the television series 'Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers', Circa 1993. (Photo by Fox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
SARASOTA, FL - MARCH 20: Joseph Dzierwa #67 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches during the game between the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium on Friday, March 20, 2026 in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Vincent Mizzoni/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
This was a well-played game all around for the Tides, starting with a quality start by Nestor German, who worked six innings and gave up three runs. He struck out five and walked one. It was German’s longest outing of the year. Nick Raquet, Cameron Foster, and Andrew Magno each worked a scoreless inning of relief. Magno’s outing lowered his season ERA to 0.92.
The Tides also brought their bats to Jacksonville, starting with 5’5” shortstop Payton Eeles, who crushed an opposite-field grand slam in the top of the third. It was part of a three-hit day for Eeles, who’s batting .364 with a .933 OPS. He stole a base, too. Heston Kjerstad broke out of an 0-for-7 drought by going 2-for-4 with a walk and two RBIs, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand contributed two hits as well. The Tides had 16 baserunners and went 4-for-10 with RISP.
Outfielder Michael Siani, claimed on waivers from the Dodgers on Monday, made his organizational debut and went 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts.
All eyes were on Joseph Dzierwa’s Double-A debut, and it started out about as brilliantly as possible. Dzierwa mowed through five scoreless innings, only giving up his first hit with two outs in the fifth. He struck out the side in the second inning. He was fantastic…until the top of the sixth, when he hit the wall in a big way. A leadoff error opened the floodgates for the Patriots, who followed with an RBI double, then three consecutive singles that chased Dzierwa from the game. The bullpen allowed one of his inherited runners to score.
Dzierwa’s final line was 5.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R (3 ER), and — most impressively — 10 strikeouts and no walks. Had he left the game after the fifth, we’d be raving about his performance. Even with his rough sixth, it was a strong Double-A debut for the guy who’s emerging as the Orioles’ top pitching prospect.
There wasn’t much offense to speak of for the Baysox. They managed only four hits, which included an Aron Estrada homer. They also went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. Ethan Anderson reached base thrice on a single and two walks.
High-A: Frederick Keys vs. Greenville Drive (Red Sox) — POSTPONED
The Keys were supposed to play a doubleheader to make up Thursday’s rainout, but instead they played none as both games got washed out. One game was rescheduled for tomorrow while the other was canceled outright.
Low-A: Wilson Warbirds (Brewers) 7, Delmarva Shorebirds 2
This was a 2-2 game until the bottom of the eighth, when the Warbirds erupted for five runs to take a commanding lead. Reliever Luis Beltrán was tagged for all five runs, though only three were earned. First baseman Juan Perez and right fielder Junior Aybar made errors on back-to-back plays with two outs, each scoring a run. Beltrán also walked in a run. It was that kind of game. Starter Brayan Orrantia lasted four innings, giving up two runs and five walks.
It was a rough night offensively for the Shorebirds, who struck out 11 times and walked just once. They had six hits, all singles. Nobody drove in any runs, as the two they scored came on a Warbirds throwing error. Delmarva fell to 15-28 on the season.
BONUS FCL NOTE: Newly signed veteran outfielder Tommy Pham made his organizational debut for the Florida Complex League Orioles. He went 0-for-1 with a strikeout and a walk.
Saturday’s scheduled games:
Norfolk: at Jacksonville, 6:35 PM. Starter: Cameron Weston (0-1, 6.56)
Chesapeake: vs. Somerset, 6:35 PM. Starter: Sebastian Gongora (1-1, 4.21)
Frederick: vs. Greenville, 6:00 PM. Starter: Yeiber Cartaya (0-0, 0.87)
Delmarva: at Wilson, 7:05 PM. Starter: Caden Hunter (1-0, 0.95)
NORTH PORT, FL - MARCH 14: James Karinchak #00 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch during the spring training game between the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves on March 14, 2026 at CoolToday Park in North Port, FL. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Braves have released 11.5 million dollars of bullpen funds that were committed to Aaron Bummer and Joel Payamps. A few relievers, like Carlos Carrasco, Ian Hamilton, and Osvaldo Bido, have come and gone (and/or come and gone in a circular pattern). Meanwhile, James Karinchak has been silencing Triple-A batters in obscurity. I know he might have some questions around him, but he has a 2.84/3.14/3.24 line and a 36.0% strikeout rate in Gwinnett and the Braves won’t leave the country anyway. Does his absence have anything to do with his velocity dropping from 94.8 to 93.0 MPH? Probably, but also who cares? If he grabbed an inning or two here and there, it may help out the Braves. He could join the Cookie Carrasco Caravan, which I imagine consists of a rented Escalade that Carrasco drives to the next city after he gets designated for assignment.
Rowdy Tellez was a signing late in March. Tellez did not complete Spring Training but did play in the World Baseball Classic. The first few weeks looked very much like a Spring for Rowdy, but even with that slow start he has an .876 OPS and a 124 wRC+ in Triple-A overall. I imagine the issue here is that Matt Olson mans his primary position. Ronald Acuña Jr, the thermonuclear Dominic Smith, and when available Drake Baldwin hold down the designated hitter spot. So I think he’s currently depth for Olson, and may be third on the depth chart because Smith may be ahead of him. He would definitely be a great option in that 28th man roster spot in September and pinch hitting option in October, should the Braves somehow manage to get there.
On May 8, 2025, Chicago native and Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost became Pope Leo XIV. Soon after the announcement, news broke that the newest Holy Man was a lifelong White Sox fan who was in the crowd for Game 1 of the 2005 World Series. Because Chicago can’t be chill about anything, and the White Sox needed something good to cling to, the team took the news and ran with it. In August, they are even doing a Pope Hat night where everyone in attendance receives a White Sox-themed mitre.
Fresh off a 121-loss season, the South Siders were determined to only climb up from rock-bottom. There was a new manager and front office changes after a slew of firings — and now, a direct line with God. They still finished in last place, losing 102 games, but progress toward rebuilding was made, as several rookies debuted and gave fans something to be excited about.
Colson Montgomery, who was previously sent to Arizona to fix his issues at the plate, came up to the big leagues on July 4, 2025. He recorded his first MLB hit the next day, an RBI triple, and finished the game 3-for-5. On July 22, Montgomery hit his first career home run, and a month later he hit his first career grand slam. Montgomery finished his rookie year having appeared in 71 games and hitting .239 with 21 home runs and 55 RBIs. Finally, we could see signs of life in the dugout!
While the Pope still looms large, driving the narrative again in 2026, His Holiness can’t be the only guy getting credit (although he just got a signed Paul Konerko jersey!).
There seem to be other forms of magical thinking helping the White Sox on their surprisingly good start.
Enter Munetaka Murakami. Mune has been a force behind the plate, hitting .246 with 17 home runs (second in the league behind Kyle Schwarber) and 36 RBIs at the time of me writing this. He had the key hit in Friday’s win in San Francisco, a beautiful three-run double down the right-field line, as the White Sox put up nine runs in the fourth inning against the Giants. Yes, NINE RUNS IN ONE INNING. No other team prioritized Murakami on their radar, fearing the Japanese slugger would struggle at the plate. While the fear could’ve been credible, 29 teams passed on Mune before Chris Getz stepped in.
But two other hitters have been great this season alongside Murakami. Miguel Vargas has really come out of his shell and proven to be quite the slugger. Not far behind his Japanese teammate, Vargas is sitting at .237 with 11 home runs, 29 RBIs, and 41 hits.
Montgomery has been carving out quite the sophomore season as well, with an average of .222, 13 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 40 hits.
The team as a whole seems to be having a blast. Sure, wins help, but so does a little silliness and establishing new traditions. Word broke that Murakami took Montgomery and his teammates out to a sushi dinner, resulting in a new sushi celebration.
In late April, before his demotion, Jordan Leasure went on Amazon and purchased a $20 Harry Potter wand for Mike Vasil. What happened next has been non-stop entertainment. Despite his TJS setback from Spring Training, Vasil is such an important member of the White Sox clubhouse that he’s remained with the team for both home and road games, casting spells and waving his magic wand to help not only with morale, but perhaps wins as well.
So what’s the sorcery behind the wand? Does the magic stem from the power of friendship? Is Vasil secretly a warlock? As a Stevie Nicks wannabe/witchy woman/recovering Catholic, this question keeps me up at night. Quite literally, as it’s nearly midnight on Friday and I had to get my thoughts out on this.
Whatever it is, Mune is buying into it, and no one can prove that it wasn’t the reason behind his home run on against the Cubs on May 16.
As previously mentioned, I can be a little witchy. Not the wicked witch you see in the movies (though I used to watch the 1996 classic The Craft to help me sleep), but someone who believes in good vibes and manifesting. Manifestation, for those unsure, is the practice of using thoughts, beliefs, and emotions to turn intangible goals and desires into physical reality. At the beginning of the season, I felt the shift with this team. I was very high on the rebuild, claimed Davis Martin as my star pitcher, and predicted they would win more than 70 games this season. Yes, you read that right: 70+ games. All things I wrote down in a manifestation ritual back in January. It felt right.
As we reach the end of May, the White Sox are playing better than .500 and sitting in second place in the American League Central. Martin is 7-1 with an ERA of just 2.04 and is being recognized as one of the top pitchers in baseball. Baseball writers who would otherwise turn a blind eye to the team that just lost a record-breaking 121 games two seasons ago are starting to see what the White Sox are quietly building. Suddenly, taking two of three games in the Crosstown series is nothing. Who cares about those North Siders, or that center fielder? Can he catch the ball like Tristan Peters?
Not to mention the tape on the helmets — first from Sam Antonacci and also now Andrew Benintendi — that has helped with hitting the ball and getting on base.
There are plenty of factors at play for the 2026 White Sox. Taking a chance on a player, creating a fun environment, new traditions, a magic wand, some pseudoscience, and the holiest man in the world on your side. All of these can certainly create the perfect storm and allow people to believe again, even if it’s because of some higher power.
But I’m here to tell you, it’s time to believe in the players, too. They are putting in the work day-to-day, and making baseball fun on the South Side again.
My favorite MLB moneyline parlay for today features the surging Tampa Bay Rays, winners of nine of 10, and the Pittsburgh Pirates' Paul Skenes touching down in Toronto for the first time.
It also includes the MLB-leading Atlanta Braves, who always feel like a good bet to throw into a parlay.
This one pays out at a nice +935.
Looking for more moneyline plays for today? Check out our full MLB moneyline picks for today's slate.
I’m having a hard time understanding how the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 8-2 in their last 10 and starting Drew Rasmussen, find themselves as underdogs against the Yankees.
Rasmussen blanketed New York on April 12, pitching six scoreless innings of one-hit ball and striking out seven.
New York has lost three straight, and Yankees starter Ryan Weathers just got torched for five runs on seven hits last time out.
MLB moneyline parlay leg 2: Pirates (vs Blue Jays, 3:07 p.m. ET)
Win probability: 60.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates SP Paul Skenes is coming off an outlier performance where he was tagged for five runs in a loss to the Phillies.
He’s bounced back from two other starts where he’s allowed at least three runs this year, giving up a total of five hits, one earned run, and 12 strikeouts in that scenario.
The Jays are a light-hitting team at the moment, ranking 26th or worse in on-base, slugging and OPS, and 22nd in runs per game.
The Tigers are a mess, with seven straight losses and just two wins in their last 15 overall.
Over the last week, their offense has been abysmal, ranking last in slugging percentage and OPS, and Bottom-3 in runs scored, on-base percentage and batting average — spoiling what’s been a serviceable 3.66 ERA over that span.
The Baltimore Orioles have won five of six Brandon Young starts on the year, and the righty has allowed just two earned runs in each of his last two outings.
The Atlanta Braves keep churning out wins, looking for their fifth straight as they visit the nation’s capital.
Grant Holmes is coming off a dynamite start, pitching six scoreless innings.
The Braves have dominated this head-to-head, going 8-2 in the last 10 and putting up at least five runs in seven of those wins.
Jake Irvin has already been beat up by the Braves once this season, taking the loss after allowing four runs on three hits, including a home run in a 9-4 defeat.
How much does this MLB moneyline parlay pay out?
The best price on today's MLB moneyline parlay, from our top-ranked baseball betting sites, sits around the +900 range, with a max payout of +935.
That means that a $10 wager on this four-leg parlay returns $103.50 ($93.50 + your original $10 stake).
MLB parlay betting FAQs & tips
Can you add player props to an MLB moneyline parlay?
Yes, you can add player props (or Over/Unders, team totals, etc.), but your wager changes from a traditional multi-game parlay to a modified same-game parlay (depending on the bet, called a SGP+, SGPx, or super parlay) that blends a standard parlay with a same/single-game parlay.
What happens to an MLB moneyline parlay if a game gets rained out?
In the event one of your parlay legs gets postponed, most sportsbook with just remove that leg from the parlay and recalculate the odds of the bet without that game (reducing the total odds).
What are the main types of parlays I can make?
Traditional parlays: Each leg of the parlay comes from a different game
Same-game parlays (SGPs): Every leg of the parlay comes from the same game.
SGPx/SGP+/super parlays: At least two legs of the parlay are from the same game, with the rest of the legs from different games.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
May 16, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Boston Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy (17) in the dugout before a game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Chad Tracy stepped into this role with an interesting résumé. Years developing hitters in the Red Sox minor league system, building lineups with pieces that weren’t quite ready for prime time. Now he’s doing it in the majors, where the margin for error is different and the stakes are real. The early returns: 23 games, a 12-11 record so far.
That record doesn’t tell the whole story, though. The offense hasn’t improved. Not even close. Boston is only averaging 3.14 runs per game under Tracy vs. 4.15 under Alex Cora in the 2026 season. The team hasn’t gotten better at scoring. It’s gotten better at not giving games away, and the pitching deserves most of that credit.
But lineup construction is more of a story here than it might look at first. A lot of what Tracy has done looks similar to what Cora was doing—but the things that are actually different have fundamentally changed how this team operates on a nightly basis.
To understand the difference, I scraped every Red Sox game from Baseball Reference and ran the data through some pretty intense Python. A little caveat; the following analysis covers 49 games through May 21st, just before the start of the Twins series last night.
The clearest finding isn’t about who Tracy puts in the lineup. It’s about what they do once they’re in there.
Both managers shuffle the lineup constantly. Tracy has written 21 different lineups in 22 games. Cora wrote 26 in 27. Neither of them was the stability guy: something changed almost every night.
What’s different is how they shuffle. Under Cora, the same group of players appeared in wildly different spots in the order from game to game. A guy who hit fifth on Tuesday might hit second on Wednesday and seventh on Friday. Under Tracy—when a player is in the lineup, he tends to know where he’s hitting. Tracy changes who’sin the lineup more than he changes where his regulars hit. For some players, that consistency has made a real difference. For others, the consistency is the problem.
Re-Establishing The Top Of The Lineup
No player’s deployment tells the Tracy story more clearly than Jarren Duran’s.
Under Cora, Duran bounced around—second, third, fourth, fifth, and only four games in the lead-off slot. To measure how scattered that was, we calculated a consistency score for each player: a number that captures how all-over-the-place a player’s lineup spot has been across the season. A score of zero means they’ve batted in the exact same spot every single game. The higher the number, the more random their placement has been. Duran’s score under Cora was 2.4. That’s high. Cora never really made up his mind about where Duran fit.
Tracy made up his mind on day one. Duran has batted leadoff in virtually every game since Tracy took over, and his consistency score has dropped to 0.27—basically as close to zero as you’ll see from any player on any team mid-season. Genuinely—with the exception of one game in late April where Duran was put seventh in the order and a sporadic off day here and there—Tracy has looked at Duran, put him first, and hasn’t blinked.
Duran’s overall OPS is .562 on the year. That’s not great for a leadoff hitter. Tracy isn’t rewarding performance here; he’s making a bet. Get your most disruptive presence on base first, let him cause problems at the top, and build from there. Lately, that bet is looking smarter. Duran has started to find his groove over the recent stretch of games, looking more like the hitter who earned this role in the first place. Whether you agree with Tracy’s reasoning or not, it’s a real, committed decision. Cora never quite got there.
Pushing The Problems Down
Under Cora, Durbin averaged the six-hole in the lineup and was a regular presence across 24 starts. Under Tracy, he’s been sliding steadily toward the bottom of the order. He’s now averaging closer to the 8-hole, and the movement has been consistent enough over several weeks that it’s clearly not random. His OPS is .372. That number tells you everything about why. I wrote earlier this season about Durbin’s bat speed being akin to rolling up a newspaper to swat a fly. That hasn’t exactly changed and Tracy is putting him in a position that feels a lot more comfortable for the shape of this team and hopefully for Durbin’s development.
Trevor Story is a different kind of story. Under Cora he was a middle-of-the-order fixture around the cleanup spot. Story was clearly relied upon under Cora to be a leader and was depended on for his slot in the order—regardless of what ownership seems to think. Under Tracy, he’s floated between fourth and eighth: still in the lineup when healthy, but clearly no longer trusted with the big RBI spot he occupied earlier in the season. Story’s Win Probability Added has been the worst on the roster by a significant margin. He’s cost this team more in high-stakes moments than any other hitter. Story last started on May 14 and is now on the injured list until at least July. How much of his previous poor form is due to this sports hernia? Who’s to say.
The bottom of the order under Tracy is where problems go to do the least possible damage. That’s not an insult — it’s just how you manage a roster when you don’t have the depth to hide anything. Durbin gets buried. Story floated downward. And the guys who can actually hit get pushed up.
He Actually Thinks About Matchups
Here’s something that doesn’t show up in the box score: Tracy has written a noticeably different lineup depending on who’s starting on the mound for the other team.
The sample is small, just five games against left-handed starters under Tracy versus seventeen against righties; treat these as trends to watch rather than definitive patterns. Still, the direction is clear enough to be worth discussing.
The biggest mover is Andruw Monasterio. Against RHPs, Monasterio has averaged the sixth or seventh spot in the lineup. Against lefties, he jumps up more than two full spots, closer to the cleanup area. Tracy is using him more as a lefty specialist, recognizing that a right-handed hitter with that kind of flexibility is most valuable when the matchup actually calls for it. See his start on Friday night as DH against southpaw Connor Prielipp as some good evidence there.
The flip side is Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Against righties, he bats around sixth. Against lefties, Tracy buries him ninth. If you know the splits, the reason is obvious. Tracy clearly knows his splits.
Ceddanne Rafaela also bumps up in the order against left-handed starters on average, though the signal is softer than Monasterio’s. Tracy is thinking about the opposing arm when he writes the card.
The One He Still Hasn’t Figured Out
Rafaela’s overall deployment is the honest counterpoint to all of this.
He’s starting almost every game—19 of 22 starts under Tracy—which tells you Tracy values what he brings. But the lineup keeps moving him around without a clear pattern beyond the broad lefty-righty adjustment above. He’s batted fifth, seventh, sixth, eighth, and third. There’s no real home. His consistency score is the second-highest on the roster, meaning he’s more unpredictably placed than almost anyone else in the lineup. He started in the two-hole on Friday in Boston, the first time under Tracy and the fourth time this season. His chaos read in the lineup is all over the place. If Tracy is starting to think of him as a top-of-the-order option against lefties, that’s something to keep an eye on.
Some of that is the nature of who Rafaela is — his defense in center field is good enough that he earns his spot regardless, and Tracy probably has more freedom to move him around because of it. But you get the sense Tracy hasn’t fully decided what offensive role he wants Rafaela in. A consistency score that high doesn’t lie. It means no one knows where he’s batting tomorrow, including the manager.
Mickey Gasper is a footnote worth mentioning in all of this. He didn’t exist in Cora’s lineup—every one of his eight starts has come under Tracy, and he’s been one of the more interesting stories of this stretch. He’s slotting mainly into the 2-hole and posting over a 1.000 OPS. If that holds, Tracy’s going to have to account for him when the roster gets more crowded. Again, is this a product of Tracy coming from Worcester, knowing these AAA regulars better, and having faith about their usage in Boston? Still not enough sample size there to know for sure.
The Lineup Is About To Get A Lot More Complicated
The lineup Chad Tracy will write in July is going to look almost nothing like the one he’s been writing in May. And the decisions waiting for him are legitimately hard ones.
Roman Anthony is the most pressing. He hasn’t started since May 4—14 straight Tracy games missed with his wrist injury—but he’s expected to be the first of the big injured pieces to return. Before this, in the eight starts Anthony made under the new skipper, he batted third seven times and first once. That’s a clear answer about how Tracy sees him. Under Cora, Anthony was essentially the leadoff hitter. That role belongs to Duran now, and it’s not changing when Anthony comes back. The realistic lineup when Anthony is healthy: Duran leading off, maybe Rafaela or a platoon hitting second (we’ll see if Micky Gasper isn’t the first send down back to Worcester at that point in time), Anthony third, Abreu fourth. That’s a real top of the order — and it could come together before the end of June.
Trevor Story is more of a July problem. He’s out until at least then, and honestly, the lineup has been fine enough in his absence given where his numbers were. Whoever fills that spot in the meantime isn’t going to match Story’s name value. They might match his actual production without too much trouble. The more interesting question is what Tracy does with Story when he comes back healthy. Does he reclaim a middle-of-the-order spot on reputation? Or does the data — and Tracy — say otherwise?
And then there’s Triston Casas, who hasn’t appeared in a single game this season. More setbacks in his recovery but he is still contractually obligated to this team. If and when Casas comes back, Tracy has a real decision at first base. Contreras has been the team’s best run-producer this season—10 home runs, solid OPS, 1,000th career RBI, and he’s been doing it at first. You can’t just bench Contreras. But you also can’t ignore what Casas is when healthy. Of the three injured pieces, Casas likely comes back last, which at least gives Tracy some runway before he has to make that call. Even for Conteras, the return of Anthony puts him in a pickle. Is he the five hole man, does he get starts at the two spot, does he shuffle everyone else and stay as the cleanup hitter he’s been in the past week? These are good problems to have, but still hard ones to make.
Chad Tracy has spent 23 games making real decisions and mostly making smart ones. He committed to Duran at the top, buried his problems at the bottom, and genuinely understands his roster enough to make the right tweaks facing lefty vs. righty starters. He responds to what’s in front of him. That’s a coherent approach and the record reflects it.
But the roster he’ll manage in July won’t be exactly the roster he has today. And the decisions he makes when the pieces come back will tell us a lot more about what kind of manager he actually is.
TORONTO, ON - MAY 22: Yohendrick Pinango #24 of the Toronto Blue Jays hits a two-run double in the third inning during a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Rogers Centre on May 22, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Not an ideal night. The Yankees’ main rival, at least in terms of the standings, won. Worse, they beat the Yankees. But hey, Gerrit Cole is back and looked great in his return. Unfortunately, he can’t do anything about a putrid Yankee offense.
So on a pretty blah night of baseball, we have to take our pleasure where we can… by savoring the losses of our rivals. Unfortunately, entirely too many of them won Friday. Why can’t we have nice things?
Toronto Blue Jays (24-27) 6, Pittsburgh Pirates (26-25) 2
This one was closer than the score suggests. At least until the bottom of the eighth inning. Kevin Gausman got the start for the Jays, fresh off a series split with the Yanks. Other than a first inning sacrifice fly, Gausman completely stymied the Bucs’ bats.
Offensively, the Jays got all they actually needed in the home third. After Daulton Varsho, who had a great series against New York, drove in the game-tying run, Yohendrick Piñango doubled in a pair, giving Toronto a 3-1 lead.
Gausman got Toronto through 6.2 frames before handing off to the ‘pen. In the top of the eighth, with the Jays up two, manager John Schneider decided not to screw around and brought in closer Louis Varland for what ended up a six-out save. Varland allowed a second Pirates’ run in the eighth but the Jays offense, led by a two-run George Springer double, put up another three spot in the home half. Varland locked down Pittsburgh in the ninth and the Jays took the series opener 6-2.
Other Games
Boston Red Sox (22-28) 6, Minnesota Twins (24-27) 8: At least Boston lost, though for most of this one it looked like they were headed to victory. Up 6-3 through six, however, Red Sox reliever Justin Slaten imploded, enabling the Twinkies to take a lead they’d never surrender. A pair of two-run jacks, one from Byron Buxton and the other off the bat of Austin Martin, turned said 6-3 deficit into a 7-6 Minnesota lead. The Twins added an insurance run in the top of the ninth and former Yankee Anthony Banda retired Boston in the bottom of the ninth to seal the win, and his first save of the season.
Cleveland Guardians (31-22) 1, Philadelphia Phillies (25-26) 0: Cleveland starter Gavin Williams was the story Friday night in Philly. Matched up against Phillies’ ace Christoper Sánchez, who hurled eight frames of one-run ball, Williams was even better. He stifled the Philly lineup, allowing a mere four hits, only one (a Bryce Harper double) for extra bases. Meanwhile, he whiffed 11 while refusing to surrender a free pass. The result was a ton of zeroes in the run column and, thanks to a clutch Kyle Manzardo solo home run in the top of the ninth, Williams’ seventh win of the season and Cleveland’s 31st.
Seattle Mariners (25-27) 2, Kansas City Royals (20-31) 0: Speaking of great pitching, the Mariners were another beneficiary Friday night. First, starter Logan Gilbert went 5.2, allowing nary a run. From there, the bullpen took over and hurled another 3.1 shutout innings. Eduard Bazardo, responsible for 1.1 of those, was the pitcher of record when Mitch Garver’s second home run of the season, a two-run blast, gave Seattle all the offense they needed (and all the offense they’d get).
Texas Rangers (24-26) 6, Los Angeles Angels (18-34) 9: On a night teeming with pitching, you’d be forgiven for assuming Jacob deGrom, one of the greatest hurlers of his generation, was one of the stars of the evening. You’d also be wrong. The Angels hung a four-spot on deGrom in the first, thanks to home runs from Zach Neto (solo) and Wade Meckler (three-run). All told, deGrom gave up six runs in three innings, putting Texas in quite the hole. Texas fought back, getting as close as 6-5, before the Angels extended the lead to 9-5, thanks in part to another solo shot from Neto. Texas managed one more in the ninth but came up far short.
There is no shortage of action today with 15 games on the MLB schedule.
To help you build your card, we’re breaking down our favorite moneyline locks and value plays for every matchup—headlined by a massive Saturday night showdown on FOX between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers.
Read on as I break down all of my top MLB picks for May 23.
MLB moneyline picks for May 23
Matchup
Pick
Cardinals vs Reds
+105
Rays vs Yankees
+119
(Postponed)
Astros vs Cubs
+129
Pirates vs Blue Jays
-142
Tigers vs Orioles
-112
Guardians vs Phillies
-183
White Sox vs Giants
+109
Mariners vs Royals
-126
Twins vs Red Sox
-112
Nationals vs Braves
-183
Mets vs Marlins
-107
Cardinals vs Reds
-103
Dodgers vs Brewers
-116
A's vs Padres
-107
Rangers vs Angels
-131
Rockies vs Diamondbacks
-168
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 5-23.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for May 23
Cardinals vs Reds: Cardinals (+105)
Cardinals win probability: 50%
The St. Louis Cardinals head into Cincinnati seeking an NL Central bounce-back series win, and they have the perfect weapon on the mound. Andre Pallante dominates the Reds historically, carrying a 6-4 record, a 2.49 ERA, and 49 strikeouts across 19 career appearances. Take the Cardinals moneyline to cash in Game 1 of the doubleheader.
Rays vs Yankees: Rays (+119) — POSTPONED
Rays win probability: 45%
Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm.
Astros vs Cubs: Astros (+129)
Astros win probability: 43%
After dropping the series opener to the Astros, the Cubs try to even the score on Saturday. They’ll have to do it against the teeth of Houston's rotation, starting with Kai-Wei Teng (2-3, 2.61 ERA). With Colin Rea taking the mound for Chicago amid a recent rough patch (4.98 ERA), the pitching matchup favors an otherwise banged-up Houston squad.
Pirates vs Blue Jays: Pirates (-142)
Pirates win probability: 57%
The Pittsburgh Pirates send ace Paul Skenes to the mound on Saturday afternoon looking to rebound from a series-opening loss. Facing a Toronto Blue Jays lineup hitting just .248 against righties this season, expect Skenes to control the tempo and help the Bucs bounce back.
Tigers vs Orioles: Orioles (-112)
Orioles win probability: 52%
The Baltimore Orioles have a prime opportunity to pick up a win on Saturday against Framber Valdez. The left-handed starter owns a mediocre 4.17 career ERA in seven outings against the Orioles, making him vulnerable to an O's lineup featuring Sam Huff, who leads the team with a blistering .400 batting average against southpaws this year.
Guardians vs Phillies: Phillies (-183)
Phillies win probability: 64%
Zack Wheeler is living up to his nickname, wheeling and dealing his way to a 1.99 ERA and a perfect 3-0 record for the Philadelphia Phillies. Up next are the Guardians, whose .222 team batting average against righties is bound to tank even further against Philadelphia's elite right-hander.
White Sox vs Giants: White Sox (+109)
White Sox win probability: 47%
Erick Fedde has a prime opportunity to hand the White Sox a road win today. He faces a San Francisco lineup hitting just .240 against righties with a sluggish .290 OBP. With Chicago boasting a significantly sharper .323 OBP to spark their own offense, backing the White Sox as road underdogs offers great value.
Mariners vs Royals: Mariners (-126)
Mariners win probability: 55%
This matchup features two middle-of-the-pack teams in their respective divisions, but the Seattle Mariners have a massive situational edge on the mound. George Kirby has been a certified cheat code against the Kansas City Royals, boasting a flawless 2-0 record, a 2.08 ERA, and 17 punchouts in four career games. Back the Mariners on the road to shut down the KC offense.
Twins vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-112)
Red Sox win probability: 52%
With Taj Bradley expected to show some rust in his first start back on the mound, the Boston Red Sox are in a prime bounce-back spot. After letting Friday night's game slip away late, the Boston offense should find plenty of success early against the right-hander.
Nationals vs Braves: Braves (-183)
Braves win probability: 64%
The red-hot Atlanta Braves look to continue their dominant run today, and a matchup against Jake Irvin gives them a massive upper hand. Irvin has struggled out of the gate this season with a bloated 5.79 ERA, and his lifetime numbers versus Atlanta — a 2-3 record and 3.98 ERA in eight games — aren't reassuring. Back the Braves moneyline to take care of business at home.
Mets vs Marlins: Marlins (-107)
Marlins win probability: 51%
Max Meyer has been delivering massive value for the Marlins, boasting a spotless record and a sharp 2.85 ERA. This afternoon, Miami looks to add to the Mets' divisional misery. Look for the Marlins to exploit a struggling New York team and cash as a lively home underdog.
Cardinals vs Reds: Reds (-103)
Reds win probability: 50%
Back on the mound against the team that ruined his big-league debut a year ago, Chase Petty is looking for ultimate redemption. With a full season of developmental adjustments under his belt, expect the Cincinnati Reds' prospect to bounce back with a much cleaner start and help salvage a split in today's doubleheader.
Dodgers vs Brewers: Dodgers (-116)
Dodgers win probability: 53%
Roki Sasaki is on the bump for the Los Angeles Dodgers as they look to rebound from a Game 1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers in this series. His 5.09 ERA is a bit inflated, but his electric strikeout stuff means he can dominate any lineup when he's on. Expect a strong response from L.A. behind their young right-hander.
A's vs Padres: A's (-107)
Padres win probability: 51%
The San Diego Padres are tough at home, but J.T. Ginn gives the Athletics a serious edge to pull off Saturday's upset. The AL West-leading A's have a great weapon on the bump today, as Ginn brings a stellar 2.98 ERA and 44 strikeouts into this matchup. Grab the visitors to steal a big road win.
Rangers vs Angels: Rangers (-131)
Rangers win probability: 56%
Laying it with the Texas Rangers looks like an even sweeter deal on Saturday night thanks to their edge on the bump. Texas hands the ball to Nathan Eovaldi, who has absolutely owned the Los Angeles Angels throughout his career, boasting a 7-3 record, a 3.04 ERA, and 77 punchouts in 16 career outings against them.
Rockies vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-168)
Diamondbacks win probability: 62%
Zac Gallen has been an absolute cash machine when facing the Colorado Rockies. Over 18 career outings against the Rockies, the righty has pitched his way to a 9-1 record, a 3.41 ERA, and 121 strikeouts. Lock in the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight as Gallen looks to maintain his historical mastery over his division rivals.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
TULSA, OKLAHOMA - APRIL 19: Josue de Paula #55 of the Tulsa Drillers runs to third base in the sixth inning during a game against the Arkansas Travelers at ONEOK Field on April 19, 2026 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Joe Davis and Orel Hershiser are calling Friday and Sunday’s games in Milwaukee on SportsNet LA, with Davis calling Saturday’s game for Fox. In the Dodgers radio booth this weekend is Tim Neverett and James Loney.
Rick Monday called the first 50 games of the season on radio, but he’s in Cooperstown this weekend, with the American flag he saved on April 25, 1976 at Dodger Stadium on display at the Hall of Fame from this weekend through Labor Day. Monday will also take part in the Hall of Fame Military Classic baseball game on Saturday at Doubleday Field in Cooperstown.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - MAY 22: Gunnar Henderson #2 of the Baltimore Orioles fields a hit for an out against the Detroit Tigers during the fifth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 22, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning Birdland,
Those of you that have Apple TV+ were treated to quite the game on Friday night. The Orioles beat the Tigers 7-4 thanks to several exciting performances from throughout the roster.
Jackson Holliday had his first two hits of the season, including an important home run that just squeaked over the shortest part of the left field wall. Pete Alonso also went deep as part of a four-RBI night. Gunnar Henderson was the spark plug with three hits, a double, two runs scored, and constant pressure on the Detroit defense. And all six pitchers that were used basically did their job, though Keegan Akin did allow a solo home run on the very first pitch of the game.
It was the kind of game that gives you some sliver of hope that this team can claw their way back into contention. They demonstrated exactly what they are capable of on a baseball field. Of course, it came against a Tigers team that has been even more disappointing, but you can only play the teams on your schedule.
Speaking of, the Orioles desperately need to make the most of this lengthy homestand that began on Friday. After these Tigers, they play three against the Rays and four with the Blue Jays. Labeling anything as “must win” in May feels silly, but the team has dug themselves such a hole that wiggle room is limited.
Weather in the area looks dicey today. The worst of the storm is to our north, but it’s going to be chilly all day with a chance of rain throughout. Will the O’s and Tigers actually play the second game of their series today? Maybe. It seemed unlikely they would play all nine innings on Friday, and yet they made it through. Both teams will want to do all they can to avoid playing a double-header on a Sunday.
Links
Eflin: “I didn’t expect to feel this good so quickly after surgery” | Roch Kubatko It’s nice to hear from Zach Eflin. It would have been even better to get more innings from him. But that’s the life of a big league pitcher. His time pitching for the Orioles is likely over, unless he and the team can agree to a much lower salary in 2027 than the $25 million on his mutual option. That kind of money just isn’t going to happen after two consecutive season-ending injuries.
What has contributed to the Orioles’ latest May swoon? | Orioles.com Um, everyone has been terrible? That’s not totally fair, but it’s also not really wrong. Almost the entire roster has underperformed their expectations. When that happens, you lose games. It gets even worse when some of the guys that were actually playing well falter. Maybe some positive regression is due to hit the Orioles now.
Orioles birthdays
Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!
Logan Allen turns 29 today. The southpaw appeared in three games for the Orioles in 2022. He is currently in the Dodgers organization.
Mike González is 48 years old. He was brought in to be the team’s closer in 2010, but early struggles followed by an injury put an end to that. He stuck around through 2011, compiling a 4.18 ERA over 78 total appearances for the Birds in those two seasons.
This day in O’s history
1999 – The Orioles beat the Rangers 15-6. Brady Anderson sets an American League record and ties an MLB record by being hit by a pitch twice in the first inning. Only two other batters in MLB history have ever “achieved” that outcome.
2000 – Despite Rickey Henderson drawing his 2,000th career walk, the Orioles beat the Mariners 4-2
2006 – O’s catcher Ramón Hernandez leads the Orioles to a 14-4 win over the M’s by going 3-for-5 with two home runs, one being a three-run bomb and the other a grand slam.
2015 – Brian Matusz is ejected for having a foreign substance on him, becoming the second player in the league to be accused of breaking the rules that week. The Brewers’ Will Smith had been ejected from a different game a few days earlier. Matusz receives an eight-game suspension.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MAY 20: Casey Schmitt #10 of the San Francisco Giants gets a high fives in the dugout after a home run at Chase Field on May 20, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
Another week of San Francisco Giants baseball is drawing to a close this weekend, which means it’s time to make our picks for Player of the Week!
This week, I’m going with Casey Schmitt! The man is on a streak that we love to see. As of the time this is being written, he’s got at least one hit in every game this week. He even had a four-hit game in last Saturday’s 6-4 win over the Athletics, which included two home runs.
Who is your pick for Player of the Week?
What time do the Giants play today?
The Giants continue this three-game series against the Chicago White Sox this afternoon at 1:05 p.m. PT.
Pedro Ramirez has been called up to replace Matt Shaw, who is on the 10-day injured list with back soreness. Ramirez will fill in the super-sub role, but with Nicky Lopez who can fill the infield portion of the role, Ramirez would be free for the outfield (if ready). He could have been the one that was called up to give PCA a couple of days break (even with his home run on Friday). If it wasn’t Ramirez, it could have been ……
Kevin Alcántara, who Jake Misener wrote about below. I won’t rehash it, but maybe since Alcantara has already had some time in the majors, this was Ramirez’s time. Alcantara’s will have to wait.
Jameson Taillon will be needing to go to the IL before too long as his whiplash watching every fly ball go to (or beyond) the outfield wall is becoming as painful as watching them.
And the PCA links start with some rare good news these days.
*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.
Slump? What slump? I sure would like to hear some more about this supposed slump ……
Field Level Media (Yardbarker): Cubs host Astros with both sides searching for a spark. “The Chicago Cubs hope a day off at home will allow them to reset mentally before they host the Houston Astros in the opener of a three-game series on Friday. The Cubs have lost five in a row and nine of 11 following a 27-12 start that had them atop the National League Central.”
Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Craig Counsell finally caves with change Cubs fans have been begging for. “After the Cubs lost 4-2 on Friday to the Houston Astros, extending their losing streak to six games, Counsell confirmed there will be changes to the starting lineup for Saturday’s game. ….. Perhaps the door is open for Pedro Ramirez to get a start or two in the coming days, but right now, the correct lever to pull is making the change with the starting lineup.”
Michael Cerami (Bleacher Report): At Long Last, Lineup Changes Are Coming for the Chicago Cubs. “After yet another day of offensive futility at Wrigley Field — complete with their patented ability to get a lot of guys on base and unique inability to drive literally any of them … in no matter the situation or who’s up (0-9 with RISP today + 11 runners left on base) — lineup changes are coming for the Chicago Cubs.”
Jesse Rogers (ESPN): Pete Crow-Armstrong says recent errors ‘genuinely laughable’. “”One thing I can fall back on is it’s never a lack of focus but [instead] trying too hard and trying to make up for the lack of production that I have given this team and this city.””
Matt Sullivan (Sporting News): Why Astros should follow 2021 Cubs blueprint with trade deadline sell-off. “ESPN’s David Schoenfield presented a blueprint for the Astros to follow, in the 2021 Chicago Cubs, that could lead to a successful sell-off this season while still keeping some key players for the near future.”
Jesse Rogers (ESPN): Cubs put Matt Shaw on injured list, call up Pedro Ramirez. “Shaw, 24, first experienced soreness Tuesday, which did not subside after a couple of days of treatment. …… ””It’s probably going to be a shorter stint,” Counsell said of Ramirez.”
Anthony Franco (MLBTradeRumors): 2026-27 Club Options: NL Central. “In recent weeks, MLBTR has looked forward to next winter’s option classes. We’ll move now to the NL Central, where the Cubs have a number of low-cost options to weigh.”
Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): For Better and For Worse, the Cubs Are Locked In. “Last summer, the Cubs affirmed their faith in their existing front office. Over the offseason they proved they feel a sense of urgency to win now. This spring, they committed themselves to this core for a long time. Was all of that a huge mistake?”
Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): The Biggest Offensive Difference Between the Cubs and the Brewers. “This week’s series, combined with the earlier discussion of certain Cubs players’ woes with runners in scoring position this year, had me stepping back and looking at the Cubs and Brewers more generally.”
Food For Thought:
According to Albert King, he was five when his father left the family and eight when he moved with his mother, Mary Blevins, and two sisters to the Forrest City, Arkansas, area. King said his family had also lived in Arcola, Mississippi, at one time. He made his first guitar out of a cigar box, a piece of a bush, and a strand of broom wire, and later bought a real guitar for $1.25. As a southpaw learning guitar on his own, he turned his guitar upside down. King picked cotton, drove a bulldozer, did construction, and worked other jobs until he was finally able to support himself as a musician.
John Mayall, the “Godfather of British Blues,” was a major influence on post-’60s rock & roll. His band the Bluesbreakers sired Eric Clapton, Mick Taylor, Peter Green and Fleetwood Mac’s rhythm section, among others. His version of blues incorporated rock elements, while keeping the core and the spirit authentically gritty and lowdown. Through his stewardship, the global audience for blues, and the palette for rock, expanded considerably.
Concrete-covered owl returns to the wild after feather surgery (the after-surgery is at 1:30)
A great horned owl found covered in concrete was released back into the wild after undergoing surgery to replace its damaged feathers. The owl underwent several days of care involving 20-minute baths to slowly remove the concrete. The process left the owl with damage to its feathers that prevented it from flying silently, a necessary feature for great horned owls to survive in the wild.
They ended up replacing 10 primary and one secondary feather on the owl’s right wing. The bird’s left wing did not require any replacement feathers. “The first few feathers were extremely nerve-wracking, but as we got into the groove, the imping became more comfortable, and everything went smoothly,” Richwalski said.
Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.
ST. LOUIS, MO - MARCH 26: Matthew Liberatore #32 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches during the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Thursday, March 26, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Matthew Liberatore has had an uninspiring start to his season. He has not been horrible, but many fans, myself included, were expecting him to improve or possibly ascend to a top-of-the-rotation type pitcher. Today I want to do a little meandering investigation into what has gone wrong with Libby and what we should expect moving forward.
Before we get to present-day Liberatore, it’s important to remember how he got here. On this date last year, he had also completed 10 starts but ranked 14th in baseball with a 1.7 fWAR. Through June, Liberatore was maintaining his impressive trajectory pitching to a 3.70 ERA and ranking in the top 20 in starting pitcher WAR in all of baseball. It is an easy narrative to follow. A former top prospect that has bounced between starting and relieving for a couple of years moves into the rotation in his age-25 season and pitches like an All-Star for the first half of the year. Then came July and August. Liberatore had a nine-start stretch where his velocity dropped, home run rate ballooned, and his ERA jumped close to 6. For his final act, Libby put together a solid September pitching to a 3.54 ERA with FIP and xFIP around 4.
That brings us to 2026. Libby is the Opening Day starter and undisputed leader of the pitching staff… and things have just not gone well. His walk rate has jumped over one per nine to 3.48. While this isn’t an awful number, it is not good enough for a command-first pitcher. Libby’s home runs per nine have also jumped from an acceptable 1.13 to a bloated 1.57. I wanted to take a closer look at Liberatore and see if there were any glaring issues in his underlying metrics or reasons for optimism.
Liberatore’s home run rate is elevated, but is that just because of his career-high 14.5% HR/FB ratio? We often talk about batters and their ability to pull the ball in the air to access power. Liberatore was solid at preventing this in 2025, allowing batters to pull only 15.4% of balls in the air. This season, that number has increased to 23.4%, one of the worst marks in the league, 12th worst out of 129 pitchers who have had at least 100 balls put in play against them. Liberatore’s velocity and underlying stuff metrics are similar to last season, if not a tick better, so what gives? With his elevated walk rate, could the home runs be up because he is falling behind more frequently and being forced to throw more pitches in hitters’ counts? To check this, I looked at the total percentage of pitches he has thrown in each count this year and last.
There is nothing alarming here. If anything, Libby is actually getting into slightly more favorable counts than last season. So, where are the walks coming from? Last season, in three-ball counts, Liberatore threw pitches in the zone 65% of the time. This season, his zone rate is down to 53% in three-ball counts. While this is hurting his performance thus far, it is better than a pitcher who has just lost control of the zone. This strikes me as more of an execution problem or even just small-sample-size variance than some kind of systemic issue with his approach.
Ok, I am satisfied that the increased walk-rate is a minor blip that is likely to even out as the season goes on. Unfortunately, I do not think count control is the culprit for Liberatore’s other issues, so we must forge ahead. Pitch mix has always been a hot topic when it comes to Liberatore because he has always had excellent breaking pitches and has had to navigate a pedestrian fastball. The narrative has been that if his fastball velocity dips at all, it won’t play at the major league level. Velocity has not been the problem, as both of Liberatore’s fastballs are up ~0.5 MPH. Perhaps his modest velocity increase has driven Libby mad with power and he is altering his pitch mix as a result? Here is the breakdown between 2025 and 2026.
Liberatore has reduced his sinker usage by a couple of percentage points, but is throwing his four-seam fastball much more this year, up 5%. The results have been even worse this year. His xwOBA against on four-seamers has increased from a bad .370 to a downright horrific .455. Interestingly, most of the additional damage is coming from lefties. You can see in the chart above that Liberatore has increased his usage to lefties from 17% to 27%. The pitch has been battered to the tune of a .694 xwOBA. Lefties are basically better than peak Barry Bonds against Liberatore’s four-seam. Not to overly simplify things, but that really is the story of Liberatore’s year so far. He is throwing his worst pitch more frequently than ever and getting absolutely punished for it. On his offspeed and breaking pitches, his results have been right in line with last season.
To look at this data from a more optimistic lens, Liberatore almost can’t do anything but get better. His fastball isn’t great, but it likely will not continue to get blasted around the yard at quite this rate, even if he doesn’t make any changes. With that said, it seems like the obvious answer is to dial back on the fastball usage a few notches while upping the breaking balls. Liberatore’s curveball and slider are both excellent pitches, both by pitch models and results. I don’t think it is as simple as throwing them 80% of the time, but he could bump them up from the 37% frequency with which he is now deploying them.
There were some big positives in Libby’s nine-strikeout performance against the Pirates in his last start. Not only were the results better (until the fifth-inning blowup), but he seemed to have a better plan of attack. His curveball was his most frequently used pitch (23%) and his fastballs were only used 28% of the time. Not only did Liberatore throw his curveball more frequently, he threw it harder than he has the last two years, averaging 81 MPH with the pitch (up two MPH). He also had a two-year high in RPMs on the pitch with an average spin rate of 3,116 compared to a season average of 2,960. The extra sharpness helped Liberatore strike out five batters with the pitch while generating six swings and misses. In addition to the increased curves, Libby also threw nine cutters (12%). This utilization is closer to his 2025 mix and up from the 3% he has used it so far in 2026.
I will be following Liberatore’s pitch mix closely the next couple of starts to see if he is making a concerted effort to minimize his fastball usage and rely more on the breakers, or if the Pittsburgh game was just a one-off day where he was spinning the ball particularly well.
After looking a bit more closely at Liberatore’s pitch data, I am convinced he will at minimum return to the solid version of him we saw in 2025. It seems he is just not getting away with any mistakes thus far and has failed to execute at his normal level in three-ball counts. The problem is, fairly or not, the Cardinals really need Liberatore to be better than he was last year if they plan to keep pace with the rest of the NL Central. To do this, Libby needs to find a way to steer clear of his fastballs as much as possible. He has abandoned the splitter that he worked on over the offseason after throwing only seven of them (all in the month of April). The pitch grades well from a movement profile, so hopefully he is still working on it in the background.
Going forward, I would like to see Liberatore increase his curveball usage to above 20% and stop relying so much on his four-seam fastball, especially when behind in the count. If he can find a third pitch, whether it is the cutter, the splitter, or the changeup, to give hitters something else to think about, he could be the catalyst that keeps this Cardinals train on the tracks a little longer.
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