TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 12: Christian Encarnacion-Strand #32 of the Baltimore Orioles bats during the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Saturday, September 12, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Colton Hall/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
If the Orioles were trying on purpose to dismantle all of the hard work they did in July and August of clawing their way out of a disappointing start to the season, the result would not look a whole lot different than what they’ve actually done in the month of September. The just-concluded weekend series against the Blue Jays pretty much settles things: It’s over, unless they run the table and win every game from now on.
In this week’s episode, before getting into the frustration and sadness about the state of the team, I offer a salute and congratulations to the High-A Frederick Keys, whose season came to an end with a playoff loss last week. A number of interesting prospects were part of Frederick’s season, both guys who started there and played their way up a level, and guys who started below and played their way up to Frederick. This really is an exciting thing for down the road for the Orioles. It’s just that the payoff probably won’t start in 2027, or at least certainly not on the Opening Day roster.
Then, the frustration. A listener started an email with so much rage that he didn’t even realize he sent the thing before finishing, then he followed up with the full message. This month’s play, particularly the presence of Red Sox uniform Rutschman at Camden Yards in a series where the Orioles were mopped, was just too much. I don’t think this person is the only one who’s turned to football season in frustration.
Last, I recount the grim toll of September so far for the Orioles, where as is typically the case there are many problems, but it’s hard not to be the most disappointment at an offense that is completely fizzling, with key players who were supposed to be better than this in massive slumps that are even worse than their already-disappointing season totals.
If the above player isn’t displaying, view this article in Incognito Mode or check it out on the show’s page.
This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.
How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of a future episode of the podcast.
Sep 13, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (5) hits a two-run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Good morning.
Evan Grant writes that the Texas Rangers are bruised and battered but they return home still vying for the playoffs somehow.
Kennedi Landry writes that Corey Seager led the way for the Rangers as they took a series on the road for the first time in two and a half months.
Grant writes that bigger names have made their way back but Robert Garcia has been an under-the-radar returnee who has helped to stabilize the bullpen.
MLB dot com’s Jared Greenspan checks out the playoff picture with two weeks left in the season where the Rangers, despite everything, remain in the race.
Grant notes that the Rangers don’t know yet when Joc Pederson will be available again after getting hit by a pitch to the hand on Saturday.
Pete Alonso returns to Citi Field on Monday night as a member of the Orioles, when he'll suit up in Queens as an ex-Met for the first time.
When Alonso has his first place appearance in front of tens of thousands of Mets fans, many of whom spent parts of June chanting his name when he was hundreds of miles away, he'll almost certainly receive a thunderous ovation that makes clear how beloved he was during his time in Flushing.
In the months since frustrated fans chanted Alonso's name, in what felt like a combination of longing for what was no longer there and disgust over the Mets' play at the time, things have changed -- though not enough to rescue New York's season.
The Mets are 29-23 since the All-Star Break, and have actually played .500 ball (59-59) since May 1, which was shortly after an agonizing 12-game losing streak that derailed their year.
Most of the losses during that streak came because New York's offense didn't have enough punch, as it mustered two runs or fewer in nine of those defeats.
And when you dissect why the Mets' season went haywire, one thing that comes to mind is that there was perhaps too much risk and too much change -- something owner Steve Cohen discussed last month.
Of all that change, which impacted both the roster and the coaching staff, some moves stand out as clear missteps, while others were sound.
For one, it would be absurd to blame president of baseball operations David Stearns for the failures of Freddy Peralta, whose FIP since being traded to the Rays (4.25) is right around where it was during his brief time in New York (4.46).
Jun 26, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns speaks during a press conference before a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. The club earlier today parted ways with manager Carlos Mendoza (not pictured). / Brad Penner - Imagn Images
Stearns choosing to move on from fan favorite Brandon Nimmo has been panned by many because of the struggles of Marcus Semien. But getting out of the final two years of Nimmo's contract was shrewd, and moving on before the season has allowed the Mets to have both Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing in the outfield with Juan Soto.
The Mets letting Edwin Diaz go, which seemed highly questionable at the time, looks different now. Diaz has missed most of the season due to multiple injuries, and has been ineffective while displaying diminished velocity in the 13.2 innings he has pitched -- with an unsightly 11.85 ERA and 2.56 WHIP.
The move that was the most puzzling at the time and remains perplexing now wasn't simply letting Alonso go. It was that the Mets did not properly replace him.
Even if you disagreed with the decision (as I did) to not retain Alonso (while not really making any effort to do so), you could kind of see the front office's logic.
Alonso was entering his age-31 season, did not play a position that was terribly valuable, and would likely regress offensively (perhaps in a major way) before the five-year, $155 million contract he signed with Baltimore ended.
But it can be argued that the Mets were too calculating. That they didn't properly appreciate Alonso's value beyond his bat -- his connection to the fans, his ability to play nearly every game nearly every season, and his understanding of what it took to play and deal with the scrutiny in New York.
While aiming to reshape the offense after Alonso's departure, the Mets brought in Jorge Polanco (22 OPS+ in 37 games before undergoing season-ending ankle surgery), Luis Robert Jr. (96 OPS+ in an injury-riddled tenure before being waived), and Bo Bichette (who has been tremendous over the last four months after acclimating).
As far as Alonso, he's been himself.
Jul 12, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso (25) throws to first for an out during the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. / Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images
Entering play on Monday, Alonso was slashing .269/.363/.499. with 35 home runs, 24 doubles, an AL-leading 100 RBI, and 89 runs scored.
Alonso's OPS (.863) and OPS+ (143) this season are both better than they were during his seven-year tenure with the Mets (.857 and 135, respectively).
And unsurprisingly, Alonso had played in all 150 games.
This offseason, the Mets will again attempt to fill the void left by Alonso's departure.
Jared Young has done a solid job as the somewhat unexpected primary first baseman this season, but he has hit just nine home runs and does hit well against left-handed pitching -- making him an unlikely fit as an everyday player on a contending team.
For now, the focus is on Alonso's return to Queens, which coincidentally comes with both he and Francisco Lindor on the cusp of reaching 300 career home runs, as both of them enter play on Monday sitting on 299.
What a fun ride it would've been if they were chasing 300 together on the Mets. But it was not in the cards. And as Alonso receives cheers this week, the Mets will start preparing to replace him -- again.
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 09: Drake Baldwin #30 of the Atlanta Braves high fives Matt Olson #28 of the Atlanta Braves after hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning during the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Truist Park on September 9, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Jack Casey/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Hat tip to AG88 for pointing this out.
Right now, there’s a four-way race for top batting line on the Braves:
Matt Olson leads in wRC+ with 124. He has a .354 wOBA and a .355 xwOBA. However, he’s really struggled in September, yesterday’s homer aside, and you have to go back to the start of August for him to have a then-on xwOBA of .350.
Next is Drake Baldwin, with a 121 wRC+ and an xwOBA underperformance (.351 wOBA, .362 xwOBA). Baldwin has also struggled a bit in September, and has honestly been pretty meh (league average-ish in both wOBA and xwOBA) since he was on fire in July (after struggling mightily in his return from the Injured List).
Ronald Acuña Jr. has the same xwOBA as Baldwin, but is underperforming it just a tiny bit more, for a 120 wRC+. He’s been on fire so far in September (189 wRC+), though that’s come with a big xwOBA overperformance in about two weeks’ worth of games: .453 wOBA, .367 xwOBA. Still, that xwOBA is better than what his teammates on this list are managing.
And then there’s Michael Harris II, who leads the position players in fWAR, with a 119 wRC+ and a .347 wOBA that’s slightly higher than his .340 xwOBA. Harris has been terrible in September (60 wRC+, .259 wOBA, .301 xwOBA), and has honestly been pretty bad inputs-wise from July-0nward. It’s just been hard to tell because he was underhitting his inputs a lot while hitting really well early in the season, and getting lucky while struggling at the plate since. While it’s probably not going to be Harris because he neither has inputs better than the other guys, nor is it his to lose outputs-wise, he could easily run a heater for two weeks anyway.
Acuña’s recent relative performance uptick suggests it could be him. But, it’s not his to lose right now. It really might come to the wire for this quartet. What do you think?
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - SEPTEMBER 02: Justin Verlander #35 of the Detroit Tigers looks on prior to a game between the Minnesota Twins and the Detroit Tigers on September 2, 2026 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Happy Monday, everyone. The Tigers are riding the high of their weekend series sweep against the Rockies, and hoping to take those good vibes into the week ahead. We’ve got plenty of little news bites to keep you busy on a Monday, with some highlights including the Tigers’ hopes of seeing Justin Verlander make at least one last start before his retirement; a touching letter from Keider Montero who has just hit the paternity list; and a look at some of the players who have made the biggest differences (for better or worse) for their teams this season.
All that and more below, so let’s just jump right into it.
Detroit Tigers News
Justin Verlander may be on the path to making at least one final start this season before he retires at the end of the year. Verlander threw off the mound on Saturday, throwing harder than he has all season. Manager A.J. Hinch is hopeful that Verlander will be ready to start over his celebratory retirement weekend at the end of September. Hinch said, “We’re aiming for that weekend, which we know will be an emotional and important weekend for him.” To help him further prepare, he will likely throw a bullpen session or simulated game over the coming weeks. While nothing is certain yet, the Tigers and Verlander seem ready to do whatever it takes to have him make one last start before he walks off the field one last time. To read more of the AP article, click here.)
A really lovely message from Keider Montero.
Proud to represent Venezuela. Proud to represent Detroit.
Sep 9, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Luis Arraez (4) hits an RBI single against the Houston Astros during the third inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Phillies offense is not playing particularly well right now. There are multiple hitters mired in if not exactly slumps, then at least not hitting well. Personnel changes aren’t really going to happen at this point in the season, so the only real solutions that they might have are lineup changes.
Mixing things up isn’t really an M.O. of this Phillies roster, but were you the manager, which lineup changes would you consider?
Moving Trea Turner down in the lineup, maybe moving Bryson Stott up? Moving Luis Arraez down, Alec Bohm up? There are a myriad of things they could do if they weren’t so ironclad in their ways.
Sep 7, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo (29) grimaces after being hit by a pitch in the second inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
With the Orioles all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, an autopsy on the season that was can begin sooner rather than later. At a bare minimum that analysis should include a deep dive into the plethora of homegrown hitters that failed to meet their expectations coming into the season. Samuel Basallo’s immense struggles in the second half of the season should be at the very top of list.
Basallo’s extension signing last summer felt like a significant point for this era of Orioles baseball. The club had finally managed to ink one of their homegrown prospects to a long-term deal, something the fanbase had been wanting for years. That player was a product of the organization’s renewed interest in Latin America, which had been almost nonexistent prior to 2018. And he was also a catcher, the same position that at the time was manned by Adley Rutschman, an all-star that had become the face of the team’s turnaround in the 2020s.
We all know what has happened since.
The Orioles have gone through yet another disappointing season and appear set to miss the playoffs for a second straight year. Rutschman, despite injuries, regained his all-star form in the first half, but was unable to lift the team along with him. He was dealt to the division rival Red Sox in early August. Meanwhile, Basallo found himself a nice rhythm in the early portion of the season, but has also missed time with injury, and is now in the midst of a deep slump as the Orioles spiral out of contention.
Let’s look into that difference in performance a bit more.
Basallo’s IL stint for right shoulder inflammation began on July 22. From the beginning of the season through that date, he was hitting .241/.305/.450 with a 110 wRC+, 16 home runs, a 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Pretty good, especially for a rookie that is still just 22 years old.
He returned to the active roster on August 19. Since then, he is batting .150/.250/.217 with a 39 wRC+, one home run, a 26.5% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. So it’s not as if he has seen wildly different strikeout and walk rates. But when he puts the ball in play, his results have been far worse than the earlier portion of the year.
We can see exit velocity is down as well. Pre-IL he was hitting the ball 91.3 mph on average, fourth on the team behind Pete Alonso, Coby Mayo, and Blaze Alexander. Since then, he’s averaging 86.2 mph on contact, on par with Jackson Holliday, who has similarly struggled in the second half, though that is worth its own blog.
Basallo’s line drive rate has been cut in half. Through July he had an 18.3% line drive rate. Since the start of August it is down to 9.5%. That has coincided with where on the field he is hitting the ball. Early on he pulled 46% of pitches. Now he is pulling just 38.1%. The difference in the two numbers has almost entirely shifted to opposite field contact.
At the same time it’s not as if Basallo is being treated all that different than he was early in the season. Opposing pitchers have maintained pretty consistent rates at which they have thrown fastballs compared to breaking pitches and off-speed offerings. Of course, that can look different against different pitchers, but day-to-day the young catcher has been getting similar looks all summer.
What has undoutedly changed, however, is Basallo’s ability to get his bat going. As mentioned earlier, he is not hitting the ball as hard as he was, and he isn’t pulling it as often. That starts to make even more sense when you see the continual downward trend in his overall bat speed. That has gone from 75 mph back in April and seen monthly deteriorations to a season-low 73.1 mph so far in September.
The way in Basallo handles his injuries was a point of contention for the Orioles back in mid-June. At the time, Orioles manager Craig Albernaz made a comment about how the emerging slugger needed to work on “knowing how to play through some pain and not being 100% all the time.” The next day, Basallo himself pushed back, explaining that players “are not robots.” Awkward, and based on everything we have seen maybe the catcher was right to slow down a bit.
Basallo’s continually deteriorating play would seem to indicate that he has not been at 100% for at least half the season. His exit velocities have been down since June. His bat speed has not recovered since April. And his statistical outcomes have all gotten progressively worse.
His month by month OPS this season has gone like this: .754, .974, .584, .694, .481, .444. Those last two are August and September, the two months since he was deemed “healthy” enough to come off the IL after two rehab games.
Look, it’s not as if Basallo is going anywhere. He is signed through 2033 at least with a team option for ‘34. And there was plenty of good news in his first two or three months of this rookie season to suggest he will become a staple in the middle of the Orioles lineup for a long time. But clearly the team needs to figure out what has changed since then.
Maybe they should have taken his discomfort earlier in the season more seriously. Maybe he needs to catch less frequently. If the bat is as good as the Orioles hope it will be, they will do whatever it takes to keep him in the lineup as often as possible, even if that may not align with what Albernaz or the organization expects from their backstop.
The Mets dropped the final game of the 2026 Subway Series, but they ended up with a series split for the year and nobody is infected with legionnaires disease, yet.
In the rare position of making a late comeback of their own against someone’s weak bullpen, the Nationals scored four times in the eighth inning and handed the Angels a 6-5 loss.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 13: Luke Keaschall #15 of the Minnesota Twins rounds third base to score on a RBI double against the Cleveland Guardians hit by Kody Clemens #2 of the Minnesota Twins (not pictured) in the third inning at Target Field on September 13, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Steven Garcia/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After wrapping up the Subway Series against the Mets, it’s now time for the Yankees to head back out on the road. Starting tonight, the Yankees will be in Minnesota to take on an old friend in the Twins. The Yankees’ dominance over the Twins over the years has been well documented, and the team could use that again as they try to track down the AL East title.
Meanwhile, at one point, the Twins were in the playoff hunt in the weak AL Wild Card race. Technically, they’re still somewhat within shouting distance of the final spot, but they’re running out of time. After a Trade Deadline where they made some moves, the Twins put up a 10-17 August and will now need to catch fire down the stretch. They’re 4-7 in September and have lost Byron Buxton for the season, so a playoff berth is now rather unlikely.
With the two teams set to take the field tonight, let’s take a look at the expected pitching matchups for the next couple days.
Monday: Will Warren vs. Dean Kremer (7:40 pm ET)
With the rotation crunch of the playoffs coming up, Warren has gotten some bullpen days in addition to starts, but he’s been pretty good in his recent starts. Dating back to August 19th — which does include 2.1 scoreless bullpen innings — Warren has a 2.22 ERA and 3.84 FIP, striking out nearly a batter per inning. He’s still the obvious choice to move to the bullpen once the rotation goes to four pitchers for the postseason, but he’s been pretty excellent as far as fifth starters go.
The former Oriole Kremer was traded to Minnesota at the deadline this year. He was very poor in Baltimore this season, and has only been slightly better since the trade. In seven starts as a Twin, Kremer has a 4.79 ERA and a 4.00 FIP, issuing 3.5 BB/9.
Tuesday: Max Fried vs. Bailey Ober (7:40 pm ET)
Although he should be nearing it in this start, Fried hasn’t been fully stretched out in terms of pitch count since returning from the IL. That proved an issue in his last outing, as he went only 3.1 innings against the Rockies while struggling with control. His IL stints and things like that have led to a very weird stat: Fried hasn’t been the winning pitcher of record since April 27th.
With a 98 ERA+ on the season, Ober has been, well, pretty much average. That’s been a step up from a down 2025, but a step below the early years of his career. Even though he has been around for a couple years now, the Yankees have only faced him once, scoring three runs in five innings in a game in 2024.
Wednesday: Carlos Rodón vs. Zebby Matthews (1:40 pm ET)
While like Fried he needed some time to get stretched back out, Rodón has been on a nice little run since coming off the IL. In the five games since then, he has a 2.25 ERA and a 3.81 FIP. The best of those games probably came over the weekend against the Mets, as he struck out eight, allowing just one earned run in 6.1 innings. He always has the tendency to nibble a little bit and drive up his pitch count, but he still has yet to allow more than three runs in a start all season, and you’ll always take that.
The delightfully named Zebby Matthews is in his third season in the big leagues, having once been rated as a top 100 prospect. However, his MLB career has not been great to this point. He has the ability to strike batters out, but a 5.45 ERA isn’t great. This has been the best year of his career to this point, but he still has a 4.98 ERA and a 4.98 FIP
SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 22: Robert Suarez #75 of the Atlanta Braves reacts to the camera during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Monday, June 22, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Ryan Levy/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Though the Braves did take care of business over the weekend, the Braves were unable to earn the sweep as the Phillies won Sunday’s game. But while this one game was disappointing, the Braves have to be pleased with the spot they are in to earn another NL East division title. They are now up five games (essentially 6 with the tie-breaker) with 12 games left. If Atlanta can get a split or better on this week’s tough road trip, they should be able to win the division with games to spare and prepare for the playoffs.
Braves News
Robert Suarez continues to make positive and notable progress in his return from injury. He is now in the midst of completing live bullpen sessions, and likely will complete another this week. That could allow for him to reasonably target a return to action before the regular season ends.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 13: Josue de Paula #95 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after hitting a three run home run against the Miami Marlins in the fourth inning of the game at loanDepot park on September 13, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A few stories to start your Monday morning, as the Dodgers shift their road trip from Miami to Cincinnati.
Josue De Paula played his first three major league games over the weekend, but before stepping into the box for the first time on Friday was already displaying controlled confidence. From Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:
“Nothing I feel I really have to change especially on the offensive side. Just do what I know how to do,” he said, acknowledging that he doesn’t think making a bid for a spot on the postseason roster is out of the question.
“Yeah. I mean, that’s always in the back of your head too. But I don’t want to get too ahead of myself now. I’m trying to focus on the now and having fun while I’m here.”
De Paula walked at least once in all three games, then lowered the boom on Sunday with a three-run home run for his first major league hit, then added a double.
“I’ll never forget it,” De Paula said of his home run on Sunday. “It was awesome.”
Hannah Fry at the Los Angeles Times on Sunday wrote about the two weeks of turbulence for Los Angeles-area sports owners, including Dodgers owner Mark Walter selling the Lakers less than a year after buying them (amid ongoing federal investigations), Rams owner Stan Kroenke buying the Angels, and Clippers owner Steve Ballmer getting suspended by the NBA for salary cap circumvention involving Kawhi Leonard.
I missed this a few weeks ago, but Brady and Trey Ebel, first-round picks of the Milwaukee Brewers in the last two years had a connected moment in the minors. Brady and Trey, the sons of Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, were fixtures at Dodger Stadium during summers when they were at Corona High School, often practicing on the field.
Brady Ebel started the season in Class-A Wilson in North Carolina, and on July 19 started at shortstop and was hit by a pitch and scored in a six-run first inning. The game was suspended by rain with two outs in the top of the first inning and a 2-0 count on Brady, batting for a second time in the game already. Play wasn’t resumed until August 25, and by then, Brady was promoted to High-A Wisconsin. So Wilson put Trey Ebel in for Brady to complete the plate appearance, and he took two more balls to work a full-count walk, which was credited to Trey.
“I was in the cage this morning, and when they sent out what we’re gonna do for the game, I was like, ‘No way! This is crazy,'” Trey said after the game. “How cool is that? I don’t know if that’s been done before, having the younger brother finish [an older brother’s] at-bat. I’m super stoked.”
Aug 10, 2026; West Sacramento, California, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Chandler Simpson (14) smiles after grounding out against the Athletics in the ninth inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
This March, I was struggling to get that new-season thrill for the Tampa Bay Rays. The last two seasons were slogs, and frankly I didn’t see a lot suggesting this year would be better. Maybe Shane McClanahan would be healthy. Maybe Yandy could continue to be a league leading hitter even as he aged. The off season acquisitions didn’t have me picturing October baseball either. Nick Martinez? Ben Williamson? Ryan Vilade? These guys were going to going to get us the 10 + additional wins needed to make the post-season?
The one thing I was sure about, with all my years of baseball wisdom, is that a team playing Chandler Simpson every day was a team headed nowhere. No shade on Chandler as a human being. He seems like a lovely young man! I love his enthusiasm and his work ethic! His speed is otherwordly!
But you can’t be a major leaguer with speed as your only tool, and we saw that last year. Simpson was pretty terrible in the outfield. This was clear from the eye test — his speed may have disguised just how bad he was at finding the ball — and defensive stats like Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) which had him at -4 for the 2025 season.
As for hitting: Simpson has always shown great contact skills, and he seldom strikes out (although he also doesn’t often walk). But he has no power. I mean none. Usually when we say a guy doesn’t have power we mean, say, Taylor Walls, who will still manage to run into 3-4 home runs and a handful of hard hit doubles in any given season. But Simpson has never hit a ball out of a major league park, and even his doubles and triples tend to be grounders hit to just the right outfield corner.
I figured this skill set — bad defense, slap hit singles and stolen bases — didn’t add up to a starting outfielder.
But now the Rays are a playoff team and Simpson is their everyday left fielder. What is striking is what has changed, but also what has not changed.
Simpson reportedly worked hard this off season to improve his defense. Now we always hear these stories of players striving to address weaknesses, but all too often the effort doesn’t much matter. This time, however, it did. This year Simpson is rated at 8 Defensive Runs Saved. Statcast gives him high ratings (93 out of 100) for his range, although his arm remain a weak spot. Those of us who watch him daily no longer think of his routes to fly balls as Oregon Trail like adventures. His becoming an average or better defender has given this outfield a completely different look.
I have also been thinking that Simpson’s offensive skills have shown improvement, but then I checked the numbers and his line this year is similar to last. With half a month to go his batting average and OBP are slightly higher than at the end of last season, but not dramatically higher. Counting stats like total hits or stolen bases are higher this year, but since he spent parts of 2025 in the minors he’s simply had more at bats. He still has no power, he still neither walks nor does he strike out.
One improved metric does stand out: he has nine sac bunts this year compared to three last season. This difference, I think, helps us build a narrative about Simpson’s key offensive role this year. His game hasn’t changed, but the team’s offensive approach has changed around him, making his skills more central to many of those small ball wins. When the Rays score three on a few singles, a couple of stolen bases and a sac bunt you know that Chandler was in that mix.
I don’t know what kind of career Simpson will have. A pure speed player is always one hammy pull away from losing his edge. I’m also not sure whether a team can afford to have a corner outfielder with absolutely no power over the long run. But in 2026, this is clearly Chandler Simpson’s team, one built to take advantage of the speed, energy and discipline he brings to the field.
JUPITER, FLORIDA - MARCH 14, 2025: Yairo Padilla #89 of the St. Louis Cardinals warms up during the seventh inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 14, 2025 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
On September 6th, both the Palm Beach Cardinals and the Peoria Chiefs played their last game of their seasons. Palm Beach ended with a 13-5 win, finishing with a 67-65 record. This was not good enough to make the playoffs. The Chiefs ended their season with a 3-2 loss and a 63-68 record. Obviously this was not good enough to make the playoffs. The Springfield Cardinals season ended yesterday, however they were good enough to make the playoffs. For some reason, minor league playoff stats don’t count which I think is dumb, but I will still wait to share the Springfield stats for the end of the Memphis Redbirds season, which doesn’t end until the 24th. In case you missed it, I covered the rookie leagues earlier this month.
Padilla got off to a very late start since his season didn’t start until late June. Technically, I could put Padilla in the Peoria section, because that’s where he ended his season, but he only played in 4 games and the stats weren’t good, so felt more appropriate for him to be in this section. Nice thing is that, although the injury was inconvenient, I’m not sure it actually delayed his progress much. I don’t think he’s promoted after just 128 PAs if he never got injured. I’m not sure he would have gotten promoted a whole lot quicker and he’s still starting next season in High A next season.
There are very few batting lines you could conjure up that are a less exciting 112 wRC+ than what Mitchell has put together. With that said, context is important. For starters, I imagine most players in his position get a trial run in the complex leagues first. I don’t know how many games are in a high school season, but it is a lot, lot less than 107 games. The Cardinals threw him into the fire and he came out with an above average hitting line. I would say there’s a fairly good chance the Cardinals will repeat him at this level. If he looks like a different hitter, a quick promotion may be in order, but I’d certainly want him to strike out less than 33% of them before a promotion.
Alexander Frias, OF – 18 (acquired in Dustin May trade)
It probably goes without saying, but his complex league stats were with the Brewers and a little more than half of his Low A stats were with the Brewers as well. I didn’t feel the need to separate his Low A stats with the Brewers and Cardinals because I really don’t think the Cardinals made any changes in the middle of the season. But he was both better and worse as a Cardinal. Better, because his 101 wRC+ was an improvement over the 92 wRC+. Worse, because he struck out more (27.3%) and had less power (.129), but did carry a much higher BABIP. So BABIP was the only reason he was better here. It’s all a small sample size anyway, and I’ll much less certain of his placement to begin next season than I am for Mitchell.
Well alrighty then. If you’re like me, this is the first time you were aware of how Condon did in Low A. It’s weird, because I knew he was down there, and yet I never checked his progress. Honestly, kind of unfortunate that the season has ended in his case, I want more. Very, very good start though. Probably not good enough to start next year in High A, because you know it’s seven games, but can’t ask for more.
Not the greatest start I’ve ever seen, but given the small sample, that Kennedy was playing more baseball than he’s ever played in his life and that his K/BB numbers were still really good, I don’t think we can read anything into this. I also have no idea how to handle super low BABIPs in the minors, especially with less than 100 PAs. For what it’s worth, his xwOBA was .284 which suggests he was unlucky, though still not great.
I let the stats surprise me and I transcribe them the way you read them, so I first saw that Henne was batting .218 and then saw the .358 OBP and thought, okay another high BB guy with no power. Then I saw the slugging percentage. Probably not gonna have a player’s stats surprise me as much as this. He hit 4 homers in 16 games. He didn’t have a set position, so I think he just kind of played his way into playing as much as he did.
Okay, I stand corrected. Immediately. Lobliner’s batting stats are a real rollercoaster. He hit four homers in 14 games, but unlike Henne, he didn’t walk. Also he struck out almost half the time. This is a line you can only get when you have a 14 game sample. His college stats suggest he’s not much of a walker. Feels like he was probably drafted for his defense.
Haley presumably pitched, unlike most other pitchers drafted, because he threw just 27.2 IP between his college season at South Alabama and in a summer league. The year before, he threw 33.1 IP. So his 11 innings gives him a career high of 37.2 IP, and I’m not entirely sure if the Cardinals want to attempt a starter route with him, but clearly next year would still be more of a first time through the order approach anyway. He can probably throw 60-70 innings next season, whether entirely in relief or not.
Moran missed pitching in live games entirely in 2025, and pitched 28 innings in his collegiate season. Whatever formula the Cardinals used, they determine Moran could throw about 40 innings this season, which is why his season continued. Like Haley, he wasn’t very good, but I suppose it would be stranger for a 16th rounder to dominate right away (or at all).
I’m ignoring his complex league stats, which are absolutely dreadful, but I’m pretty sure those are rehab appearances, which are just about making sure your arm doesn’t fall off. With that said, I am comfortable calling this a step back for Dutkanych, a player some VEBers wanted to put in the top 20. I kind of thought he already figured out Low A last season, but these are worse stats than last year. The one positive is that his innings did jump from 17.2 IP to 46 IP, so from an innings standpoint, he’s probably on track. I’m hoping he’s in Peoria next year though.
Dos Santos began his season in the complex league and dominated there for a 142 wRC+. I only shared Frias’ stats because he was in the Brewers system. You already knew Dos Santos dominated the complex league. It’s pretty cool how many teenagers I’ve covered in full season ball. Not just teenagers either, these are teenagers who will certainly be on next year’s top 20 list.
Unfortunately, Mejia’s season ended about a month early, as he played in his last game on August 5th. Though it has taken him much longer than I think the Cardinals hoped for when they first promoted him to Low A back in 2023, Mejia has played well enough to be in Peoria next season finally.
In Hernandez’s case, I’m pretty sure he hadn’t been promoted to Low A the last time I did a minor league update, so you get his complex league performance too. Happily though, you can see that he hit much better after being promoted, albeit entirely BABIP-related. So I’m pretty sure he’ll still be in Low A when next season starts, although it will be an extremely good sign if the Cardinals deem him ready for High A right at the start.
Young’s season got derailed very early on in the season. He got injured midseason, not pitching in a game from May until late August. He only pitched in two games at the end of the season. Who knows how long he pitched injured and he didn’t pitch particularly well in his last two games either. So it’s very nearly the same as if he missed this entire season to injury.
Graham did not pitch particularly well, although he showed flashes, but I imagine from the Cardinals’ perspective, the fact that Graham stayed healthy all year is the most important thing. If you remember, the Cardinals drafted Graham last season knowing he was, at the time, recovering from Tommy John surgery. He had thrown just one game in college before getting injured. He threw an additional 9.2 IP in the complex league, utterly destroying the competition, so he threw 63.1 IP in all this season.
I honestly probably didn’t even share Cabrera’s stats in the last update, because they most likely didn’t stand out to me. I don’t like to share bad stats. But the fact that this 19-year-old catcher was promoted to Low A despite poor hitting stats is worth pointing out. They clearly think highly of his defense.
This is… confusing! Franco was unimaginably bad in the complex league, not missing any bats and walking a ton. His one positive was that he induced groundballs, but he probably allowed a lot of hard contact. Behind-the-scenes though, the Cardinals saw something shift in him, and he was promoted to Low A and… he pitched fairly well! The groundballs stayed and the K/BB significantly improved. No idea how this happened.
Last year’s 13th round pick, Shelagowski pitched okay, actually pretty damn close to how I imagine a 13th round college pick to perform in Low A. Given his age, you’d hope for better though. He is currently injured.
Well I certainly don’t know what to make of this line. He’s actually striking out more batters than last season and though he has more walks, it’s not a lot more. He’s getting a smiliar amount of groundballs. However, he did not allow homers last year. He allowed a ton this year. He allowed 17 homers in his 18 games pitched, with 25.8% of flyballs turning into a homer. He was a victim of the home run insanity that occurred in the minors this season.
Crossland seems to be following the Braden Davis track. Don’t ever allow hitters to make contact, even if it means you will walk a lot of batters. Granted, significant improvement in his five starts at the High A level in terms of walks, even if you want it still lower. I’m not sure how positively I’d look at his season without those 5 starts, but well it’s a harder level and he acted like it wasn’t.
Jack Martinez, RHP – 23 (Acquired in Nolan Arenado trade)
Now this, this is what I expect when someone gets promoted to a higher level. I will commend Martinez for also improving upon his walk rate, but he missed a lot less bats and didn’t get better results. Martinez is a bit like found money though as I really didn’t envision a future MLB player in return for Nolan Arenado with his contract.
Raquet was released by the Orioles two weeks ago, so even though Smith might not become anything, I think the Orioles wish they could take this trade back. It does sort of seem like strikeouts will be a problem, maybe his biggest problem to making the majors.
Andrew Williamson, OF – 20 (2nd round, 2026 draft)
Sort of a mixed debut pro season for Williamson, who was rather aggressively placed in High A to begin his career. He had plenty of power with 5 homers in his 20 games. But BABIP was very much not his friend, resulting in a well below average line. This was considered his age 20 season, but he did turn 21 on July 11th, so he’s among the oldest “20”-year-olds.
Oddly similar to Williamson, but not as much power and a higher BABIP. But the same general concept is there. Ferraro had power and actually didn’t strike out that much, but lots of baseballs found gloves.
Odle also made 9 appearances in Low A at the beginning of this season, striking out 36% of batters with a 1.91 ERA. The walks kind of exploded in High A and he sort of stopped getting grounders, but he still struck out a third of the hitters he faced. Better yet, he increased his innings from 51.2 IP to 96 innings, putting him in a good position by the time he’d be ready for the big leagues.
Holiday pitched in 12 of those 19 games at Low A, and an additional four games in the complex league, and his stats are actually fairly similar at those two levels. The rookie league stats are a bit better, but it’s close. And he finished with three games at High A, which are a step down, although he still carries a low walk rate. I didn’t feel like listing the stats to three different levels, just know the High A stats drag it a down a bit (although he had a 3.94 ERA)
Kross’ season actually ended in early August to injury and he hasn’t played since. If you’re wondering how much he played at catcher, he started 31 games. 38 games were at 1B and 16 games were at DH. Given his defensive status, I suspect he’ll have to hit better than this.
Last year’s 8th round pick is on schedule even with his struggles at Peoria. His performance at Palm Beach wasn’t terribly exciting, but it was an overall good showing and you hope that the low BABIP was partially unlucky, because that line with a good BABIP would actually be an exciting batting line.
Patrick Galle, RHP – 22 (acquired in the trade for Sonny Gray)
Well his utter dominance in Low A did not really carry over to Peoria, although you can’t blame the Cardinals for promoting him. He struck out 60% of batters and that is not a typo.
Van Dyke was last year’s 10th round pick and he actually had zero issues at Palm Beach, throwing in 5 games to end last season and 7 starts to begin this season. In his second attempt, he managed to strike out a bunch of hitters. As you’ve probably picked up, the offensive environment is rather high, so his stats are not as discouraging as normal.
A season after posting a .064 ISO all year, Hernandez hits 11 homers and 18 doubles in 65 games this season. I don’t know what to make of this dude, because the Cardinals refuse to promote him. He seemingly excelled in 2024 at the Low A level, but then repeated the level in 2025. Then his power disappeared. Confusingly, he saw High A both at the end of 2024 and 2025. So I would assume he’s in Springfield next year, but maybe not!
And I’m going to stop there. Even with a more expansive list, I know I’ve chosen to omit some players who could be posted, but at a certain point, I have to pay attention to the clock.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - CIRCA 1987: Mike Scott #33 of the Houston Astros pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies during an Major League Baseball game circa 1987 at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Scott played for the Astros from 1983-91. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Fret not with that hovering malaise permeating from St. Petersburg’s aftermath. The ambient rawness of a series loss in Tampa is still fresh, but we have the perfect cure. It’s time to unveil my “All October Squad” throughout the various decades.
This might be the only list you’ll ever find without the likes of Bagwell and Biggio. Bagwell in 106 post season plate appearances, hit only .226 with a pair of home runs. Biggio also had two longballs over 167 at-bats, hitting just .234.
The lineup card has been submitted to the home plate ump, so sit back and enjoy. Without further ado, here’s the best to do it for the Astros in October:
1. George Springer. CF.
Admit it, you miss hearing “Springer Dinger!” George’s epic 2017 Series in which he launched five home runs off Dodgers pitching is the stuff of legend. All told, he’d accumulate 19 HR, 38 RBI along with 43 runs across 63 post season games as an Astro.
2. Alex Bregman. 3B.
88 hits in the postseason. Enough said!
3. Yordan Alvarez. DH
The intimidation factor will always be there, as will stunning 3 run blast against Seattle in the 2022 ALDS.
4. Jose Altuve. 2B.
Not surprising, the newly minted member of the 2,500 club, leads all Astros with 118 post season hits.
5. Carlos Correa SS
Clutch. 18 home runs in 79 postseason games, with an engagement proposal on one knee to boot.
6. Michael Brantley. LF
On his tombstone, it will say, “professional baseball hitter” Believe it or not, he actually has more postseason hits than Yordan, even with injuries cutting him short.
7. Yuli Gurriel 1B
87 hits in 85 post season games.
8. Jason Castro C
Go back and watch the 2021 postseason. Castro was clutch off the bench, registering a monster 1.159 OPS over 6 games.
9. Billy Hatcher RF
Billy’s game tying solo home run in the 14th inning against the Mets is legendary. Every Astros fan remembers the left field foul pole shot! He also had 7 hits in that series with New York.
SP Mike Scott
Yes, Verlander has 10 wins in a Houston uniform, but Scott made his lone post-season appearance in 1986 count, so much so that he was named NLCS MVP even in the series loss. Scott’s combined stats from Games 1 & 4 are insane. Two complete games, 1 run allowed and 19 K’s.
Closer: Ryan Pressly
Shakira’s hips don’t lie and neither do the stats for Pressly. Simply put, he has the most saves in October for the Astros all-time with 14.
Let us know your all-time Astros October lineup in the comments.
RICHMOND, VIRGINIA - SEPTEMBER 9, 2026: Wehiwa Aloy #1 of the Chesapeake Baysox looks on during a game against the Richmond Flying Squirrels on September 9, 2026 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Alyssa McDaniel/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
The Tides fell, with starter Juaron Watts-Brown taking the loss. He didn’t pitch too badly, though, giving his team five innings with three runs allowed on six hits and two walks. The righty, acquired from the Blue Jays in 2025 in exchange for Seranthony Dominguez, had a 5.76 ERA in Double-A, but struggled to a 9.26 ERA in Triple-A over six starts. After JWB, Yaqui Rivera, Albert Suárez and Yosver Zulueta threw three scoreless.
The Tides scored their two runs in the sixth inning, courtesy of one big swing. Jud Fabian singled, ahead of one Creed Willems, who happily got a hanging curveball and went yard. It was the catcher’s eighteenth four-bagger this season. Other Tides batters who recorded hits were Christian Franklin, Silas Ardoin and Tavian Josenberger.
On their last day of the season, the Baysox pulled off a win with a three-run comeback in the eighth. But first we’ll start with pitching. Starter Patrick Reilly, reinstated in late July after Tommy John, posted a clean 5.2 one-run innings, bringing down his season ERA at Double-A to 3.63 ERA in eight starts. Reilly also struck out seven. Afterwards, 3 1/3 scoreless were tossed by a combination of Richard Guasch, Keegan Gillies, Alex Pham and Brock Moore.
This game was 1-0 Richmond until the top of the eighth, when the Baysox strung together the winning three-run rally. Griff O’Ferrall singled, Frederick Bencosme walked and then, with two outs, Wehiwa Aloy brought them all home with an Earl Weaver Special. That was all the offense the Baysox would get, and it’d be all they needed. O’Ferrall, Estrada and Aloy finished with two hits apiece.
Chesapeake ends its season 67-68, fifth in the Eastern League’s Southwest division.