Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander watches a play from the dugout during the second inning against the Athletics at Comerica Park in Detroit on Wednesday, July 8, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
A question for you to ponder on this fine morning in advance of the series finale: who is the most Mariner-like Marlin, and who is the most Marlin-like Mariner?
Emma Cortes Ellendt at Forbes went behind-the-scenes to learn more about the Mariners’ new influencer strategy.
Around the league…
Veteran right-hander Justin Verlander announced that he will retire at the end of the season. Verlander was also just selected to the All-Star team as a “legend pick.”
We have some new Home Run Derby participants, with the Royals’ Jac Caglianone and the Red Sox’s Willson Contreras each announcing they will compete.
Former Mariners righty Gregory Santos has elected free agency. Santos has had a rough season between the majors and Triple-A in the Giants organization.
The 2026 MLB Draft takes place this Saturday, July 11, and Sunday, July 12, at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia. For the first time ever, NBC Sports will provide live national coverage, starting at 1:00 PM ET on NBC and Peacock with the top 10 picks, and continues on Peacock at 2:30 PM. See below for everything you need to know about the 2026 MLB Draft, including additional information on how to live stream the event.
Here are the first 10 picks: 1. Chicago White Sox 2. Tampa Bay Rays 3. Minnesota Twins 4. San Francisco Giants 5. Pittsburgh Pirates 6. Kansas City Royals 7. Baltimore Orioles 8. Oakland Athletics 9. Atlanta Braves 10. Colorado Rockies
MLB Sunday Leadoff is a weekly Major League Baseball showcase featuring live Sunday daytime games. It highlights marquee matchups throughout the regular season and streams primarily on Peacock, with some games also airing across NBC Sports and NBC.
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NBC Sports will also stream one out-of-market game each day of the 2026 MLB season nationally on Peacock. Telemundo Deportes will present all NBCUniversal-produced MLB games in Spanish, with Universo televising all games broadcast on NBC.
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SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JULY 08: Dylan Cease #84 of the Toronto Blue Jays and Assistant Pitching Coach Sam Greene #88 look on prior to the game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Wednesday, July 8, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Bryan Kennedy/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
As has been the case more often than not of late, it was not the Yankees’ day on Wednesday. In an important divisional match with the first place Rays, the Bombers were shut out, and will be forced to try for a split in the series’ fourth game on Thursday. Now five games out of the top spot in the East, New York has plenty of work ahead them as we march closer to the All-Star break.
Regardless, there was plenty of other important baseball going on around the Junior Circuit on Wednesday. Amid some blowouts, gems on the mound, and the narrowing of standings, let’s take a look at what went down.
Boston Red Sox (42-48) 5, Chicago White Sox (47-44) 0
In a battle of the Sox, those of the Red variety had control over Wednesday’s game for much of its duration. After a pair of scoreless innings on both sides to begin the game, Boston jumped out to a five-run lead in a hurry. In the third, RBI knocks from Tsung-Che Cheng and Ceddanne Rafaela helped to plate three, while the same from Carlos Narváez and Cheng scored two more in the following inning.
The outburst in the middle innings was actually the extent of the scoring on either side, as the Red Sox cruised to victory in Chicago. The story of their day, however, was the pitching. Starter Jake Bennet had his best stuff working on Wednesday, as he tossed seven scoreless innings, while striking out four and walking just one. It was his fourth consecutive start of six or more innings, as the lefty continues to pitch well for the Sox.
Boston’s win gets them to within a few games of the final wild card spot, while Chicago’s loss only tightens the situation in a rather close American League Central. With three different teams within two games of first place, the division could once again remain close for much of the season.
Toronto Blue Jays (44-49) 10, San Francisco Giants (38-54) 0:
On the topic of top-notch pitching, Dylan Cease was about as good as it gets in San Francisco on Wednesday. The highly talented righty took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Giants, and although he lost the no-no to the first hitter of that frame, Cease finished with a pristine line of eight scoreless innings with eleven strikeouts racked up. All the while, the Toronto bats backed up their starter with double-digit runs, fueled by Kazuma Okamoto’s grand slam, and homers from Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. The Jays creep back to within 2.5 games of a wild card berth with their dominant win by the Bay.
Remaining on the theme of shutouts, the Mariners dropped a tough one on the road against the Marlins. Early runs for Miami, thanks to extra-base hits from Kyle Stowers and Xavier Edwards gave them the lead, while another excellent effort on the mound allowed them to keep it. Miami’s Tyler Phillips along with three relievers kept Seattle out of the run column wire-to-wire, as the Fish continue to impress, holding onto the last wild card spot in the NL. With the disappointing loss, the Mariners shrink their lead in the West to just a half-game, as their situation becomes a bit troubling as we head toward the second half.
In the closest game on our docket for the day, the Twins walked it off in the ninth to close the gap between them and the Guardians. It was a close battle throughout on Wednesday, as both clubs matched each other with three runs in the fourth inning, and two in the seventh to knot things up at five. The big hit came from Alan Roden in the bottom of the ninth, with his walk-off “single” that hit about half-way up the big wall in right-center sending the Twins and their fans home happy. The dramatic wins gets the surprising Twins a bit closer to the action in the Central, as they now sit just two games out of first place.
TULSA, OKLAHOMA - APRIL 19: Zyhir Hope #13 of the Tulsa Drillers swings the bat during a game against the Arkansas Travelers at ONEOK Field on April 19, 2026 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Could you imagine scoring 22 runs and coming within one hit of losing a game? That’s what happened to the Ontario Tower Buzzers, but all is well that ends well in a day of no defeats in the Dodgers minor league system.
Player of the day
While the hitting candidates were plentiful as the Tower Buzzers put up 22, no hitter in that game secured multiple home runs in the same important manner as did Zyhir Hope. The Drillers’ outfielder basically carried the team’s entire offense on his back in a 7-2 win.
Although it is only July 9th, it is already the fourth game securing at least five total bases for Hope this month, who hadn’t homered twice in the same game since the start of June. The lefty-hitting outfielder is already up to 76 RBI on the season.
Triple-A Oklahoma City
It’d be tough to ask for much more out of Zach Ehrhard, who has now passed the 60-RBI mark on the season—Ehrhard hit one of the Comets’ four homers, an inside-the-parker at that, to lead the way for a win over the Chihuahuas by a score of 9-2. Alek Thomas left the yard twice, and Noah Miller had the other home run.
In a game in which both sides combined to allow more hits than strikeouts, the work of veteran Cole Irvin got the job done for OKC. Irvin covered six innings of two-run ball, handing it off to a bullpen that tossed three scoreless without allowing a single hit.
Lastly, Ryan Ward needed just one single to become the all-time hits leader in the OKC’s Bricktown era, reaching 463 total and leaving behind Drew Avans, now second on the ranking.
Any Hope of winning this game against the Cardinals went through Zyhir, who homered twice and drove in five of the Drillers’ seven runs with those key long balls, his only hits in the game. In fact, considering Chris Newell also left the yard, the only Tulsa run that didn’t come via the long ball came on a Mike Sirota RBI triple, the man who can’t stop reaching base safely.
Pitching, only one of the three runs let across by Adam Serwinowski was earned, as the southpaw managed to earn his seventh win of the season. While they ran into a bit of trouble in the ninth inning, Kelvin Ramirez came in to secure a two-out save, carrying Tulsa to their 56th win in 83 games.
High-A Great Lakes
Working well with runners in scoring position (5 for 11), the Loons overcame a 4-1 deficit in the fifth inning to beat the Dragons 8-4 at home. The combination of Charles Davalan and Eduardo Quintero at the top of the order had a great performance, responsible for half of the team’s RBI, with Quintero hitting the team’s only home run, a solo shot in the first.
Because the Loons only took the lead after Aidan Foeller left the mound, having covered 4.2 innings with eight strikeouts and allowing three runs across, the win was left for Matt Lanzendonfer, his third on the season.
Single-A Ontario
One occasionally hears of football scores in a baseball game, but nothing quite as shocking as this 22-21 by the Tower Buzzers over the 66ers. In this game both sides combined for 33 hits, six errors, and four half innings with at least six runs scored.
It was by the thinnest of margins that Ontario escaped one of the all-time minor collapses in this one, considering they scored the game’s first 16 runs through three innings. Mairoshendrick Martinus and Ching-Hsien Ko combined to strike out five times, but each had an outstanding game of their own, responsible for 10 of the team’s 22 RBI. On top of those two, Jaron Elkins and Joendry Vargas also left the yard with multi-run homers.
Jholbran Herder tossed a couple of scoreless innings to begin the game, but then virtually any reliever that the Tower Buzzers sent to hold this sizeable lead seemed intent on giving it up. With the most alarming of appearances coming from Dailoui Abad in a ninth inning in which he allowed six runs to come across. The game ended with the tying run in scoring position and Jecsua Liborius punching out Ryan Piccolo, who had reached base all three times up at the plate before that at-bat.
Wednesday’s scores
Oklahoma City 9, El Paso 2
Tulsa 7, Springfield 3
Great Lakes 8, Dayton 5
Ontario 22, Inland Empire 21
Thursday’s schedule
4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Sean Patick) vs. Dayton (Kyle McCoy)
5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Davis Martin) vs. Springfield (Chen-Wei Lin)
5:05 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Jackson Ferris) vs. El Paso (Evan Fitterer)
6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Inland Empire (Jose Romero)
The Yankees (50-42) and Rays (54-36) wrap up a pivotal four-game series this afternoon at Tropicana Field with Tampa Bay looking to take the series and further their hold on first place in the AL East. continue its recent dominance atop the AL East.
Last night the Yankees only struck out 11 times (they had K’d 17 times in each of the previous two games) but managed just six hits and failed to score as the Rays won 3-0 to move five games up in the division. Shane McClanahan was stellar, blanking the Yankees over 6.1 innings. Jonathan Aranda had a night at the plate driving home all three Tampa Bay runs, delivering an RBI single in the third inning, an RBI double in the fifth, and a sacrifice fly in the seventh. Frankly, New York wasted a quality start from Gerrit Cole, who gave up three runs over 6.1 innings.
The Yankees come into Thursday looking for a split in the series and to pull back within four games of the Rays. New York's offense has been offensive over the last month. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, continues to roll especially at home where they have won 33 of 46 on the season.
It does not get any easier for the Bronx Bombers today as the Rays send Drew Rasmussen (7-4, 2.78 ERA) to the bump. As reliable as he has been this season, Rasmussen's most recent start was his worst of the season as he allowed five runs on six hits on July 4 in Houston. Prior to that setback, however, he had been dominant, posting a 0.82 ERA across five June starts, including seven scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts against Boston on June 10. The Yankees are expected to turn to Ryan Yarbrough (0-0, 4.29 ERA). Primarily used out of the bullpen this season, Yarbrough’s last seven appearances have all come in losses by the Yankees. Most recently, the righthander pitched July 4 against Minnesota, allowing one run over 1.2 innings while striking out two.
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Yankees vs. Rays
Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
Time: 1:100PM EST
Site: Tropicana Field
City: St. Petersburg, FL
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, YES, Rays.TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
The Latest Odds: Yankees vs. Rays
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: New York Yankees (+135), Tampa Bay Rays (-163)
Spread: Yankees +1.5 (-163), Rays -1.5 (+135)
Total: 7.5 runs
Probable Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Yankees vs. Rays for July 9
Yankees: Ryan Yarbrough Season Totals: 35.2 IP, 0-0, 4.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 27K, 15 BB
Ben Rice has hit safely in 4 straight games (6-16)
Paul Goldschmidt is without a hit in his last 10 games (0-34)
Goldschmidt has struck out 10 times in his last 12 ABs
Cody Bellinger is now 5-56 over his last 15 games
Bellinger has struck out 11 times in his last 30 trips to the plate
Junior Caminero is hitless in his last 4 games (0-15)
Trent Grisham is 5-14 in his career against Drew Rasmussen
Yandy Diaz is 6-12 in this series
Richie Palacios went 2-2 last night and is now 9-16 over his last 6 games
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top Betting Trends & Insights: Yankees vs. Rays
The Yankees are 41-51 on the Run Line this season
The Rays are 55-35 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 39 times in Tampa’s 90 games this season (39-47-4)
The OVER has cashed 41 times in the Yankees’ 92 games this season (41-47-4)
Expert picks & predictions: Yankees vs. Rays
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s game between the Yankees and the Rays:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Ray on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Rays’ Team Total OVER 4.5
Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 7.5
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Bryce Miller continues to dominate for the Seattle Mariners. The righty owns a 2.17 FIP over his last two starts, and he hasn't allowed a single walk during that span.
Miller has also held opponents to a 30.9% hard-hit rate over the last month. He's cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in two of his previous three outings.
The strikeout prop for Miller is also a no-brainer tonight. His total is set at a modest 5.5, and the 27-year-old has easily surpassed that in six straight. He's struck out 11.57 hitters per nine innings across his last four starts.
Cal Raleigh is in the midst of a four-game hitting streak, and he has an impressive 50.3% hard-hit rate over the last week.
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Mariners.TV, Marlins.TV
Phillies vs Reds SGP: Luzardo quiets Reds
Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent at times this season, but he's improving a lot lately. Over his last two starts, the Philadelphia Phillies lefty has posted a terrific 1.56 xERA, and he's hit the Under in earned runs allowed in both outings.
Luzardo is also consistently pitching deep into games. He's lasted into the sixth inning or longer in three of his last four. Over the last month, opponents have only had a 31.3% hard-hit rate.
Youngster Justin Crawford has multi-hit games in back-to-back appearances, and he's batting .353 over the last six games. He'll face Cincinnati Reds starter Brady Singer tonight, who has an alarming 44.4% hard-hit rate and 14.8% barrel rate in his last two outings.
This is a clear chance for Crawford to stay hot.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Reds.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Angels vs Rangers SGP: Adell keeps raking
Nathan Eovaldi certainly hasn't been dominant this season, but as always, he's still racking up the Ks. The veteran has struck out 10.57 hitters per nine innings across his last five starts.
The righty has easily surpassed tonight's total in three straight outings, posting nine Ks in each.
Jo Adell is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He has seven hits in his last three games, and Adell just went 2-for-4 on Wednesday with two homers. Eovaldi has allowed a 39.3% hard-hit rate over his last two outings.
There's some vulnerability that Adell can capitalize on.
Mike Trout has collected a hit in nine consecutive games. While he just returned from the IL, the veteran has continued to make quality contact, producing a 45.8% hard-hit rate over the last month.
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: ABTV, Rangers Sports Network
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
SGP picks: 2-6, +2.86 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 08: Luis Campusano #12 of the San Diego Padres is congratulated in the dugout after hitting a home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the sixth inning at Petco Park on July 08, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Michael King was pulled with a 3-0 lead after 75 pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start, which ultimately became a 4-3 loss after an error and a grand slam followed his departure. He came into the contest between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks looking to replicate the success from his previous start and he did just that allowing one run on four hits over six innings of work. King limited the walks in his outing, allowing two free passes, and struck out four on 92 pitches as the Padres earned a 10-4 win over the Diamondbacks at Petco Park on Wednesday.
The Padres offense supported King’s effort with runs in the third and fourth innings to take a 2-1 lead. San Diego then added two runs in the fifth inning and four runs in the sixth inning to take a comfortable 8-1 lead. Arizona added two runs to its total in the top of the seventh inning when Tommy Troy connected on a two-run homer against reliever Ron Marinaccio which made the score, 8-3. San Diego immediately responded in the bottom of the inning, adding two runs to its total to give the Padres a 10-3 lead. The Diamondbacks tacked on a run in the top of the eighth inning,
San Diego got contributions from the majority of the lineup with only Gavin Sheets being held without a hit. Miguel Andujar recorded three doubles and Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Luis Campusano each had two hits in the game with Campusano recording his first home run of the season.
St. Louis (58-34) used a pair of late homers to pull away and beat Milwaukee (48-43), 5-1. The Cardinals' win broke a seven-game losing streak against the Brewers this season. Milwaukee is 7-2 versus the St. Louis this year.
The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Milwaukee and moves the Brewers to 8-3 over the last 11 games. On the other hand, the win broke a four-game losing streak for St. Louis as the improve to 6-5 in that same 11-game span. To start July, both squads have had two of the best pitching rotations. Milwaukee ranks third in ERA (2.78) and St. Louis seventh (3.42), while both offenses are top 10 in runs scored.
Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Brewers at Cardinals
Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
Time: 7:45 PM EST
Site: Busch Stadium
City: St. Louis, MO
Network/Streaming: MLB TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Brewers at the Cardinals
The latest odds as of Thursday:
Moneyline: Milwaukee Brewers (-136), St. Louis Cardinals (+113)
The Brewers’ William Conteras is hitting .284 with 95 hits, 9 home runs and 51 RBI over 334 at-bats
The Brewers’ Sal Frelick is hitting .236 with 62 hits and 28 strikeouts over 263 at-bats
The Cardinals’ Jordan Walker is hitting .294 with 101 hits, 21 home runs, and 70 RBI over 343 at-bats
The Cardinals’ Pedro Pages is hitting .214 with 31 hits and 40 strikeouts over 145 at-bats
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Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Brewers at Cardinals
Milwaukee is 50-42 ATS, ranking sixth-best
St. Louis is 53-38 ATS, ranking third-best
Milwaukee is 50-40-2 to the Under, ranking fourth-best
St. Louis is 48-38-5 to the Under, ranking third-best
Milwaukee is 23-19 ATS on the road, ranking seventh-best
St. Louis is 27-21 ATS at home, ranking fifth-best
Expert picks & predictions for tonight's game between the Cardinals and the Brewers
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday's game between the Cardinals and the Brewers:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Brewers on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Brewers at -1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Under on the Game Total of 8.5
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The Reds (42-49) had a day on Wednesday, scoring 11 runs behind two Sal Stewart homers and four home runs overall. Cincinnati beat Philadelphia (51-42), 11-5, and tied the series up.
With the win, the Reds are now 3-7 in the last 10 games. Cincinnati has started July hitting .236 (22nd), which isn't far off from their .220 average in June (28th). The Reds' offense is stalling and on the season, they've dropped to 29th overall with a .228 batting average. The All-Star break couldn't come at a better time for this team. Cincinnati hosts Chicago for three games to end the first half of the season.
Philadelphia are in jeopardy of losing two straight series if they drop tonight's meeting with the Reds. The Phillies are 3-4 to start July and the pitching staff has been getting rocked. Philadelphia has a 6.75 ERA (26th) to start the month and opponents are hitting .307 (29th). After this matchup, the Phillies are on a three-game road trip to Detroit to finalize the first half.
Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Phillies at Reds
Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
Time: 7:10 PM EST
Site: Great American Ball Park
City: Cincinnati, OH
Network/Streaming: MLB TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Phillies at the Reds
The latest odds as of Thursday:
Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds (+134), Philadelphia Phillies (-162)
Spread: Phillies -1.5 (-103), Reds +1.5 (-117)
Total: 9.5
Probable starting pitchers for Phillies at Reds
Thursday's pitching matchup (July 9): Jesus Luzardo vs. Brady Singer
The Phillies’ Brandon Marsh is hitting .305 with 99 hits, 15 home runs and 46 RBI over 325 at-bats
The Phillies’ JT Realmuto is hitting .202 with 44 hits and 51 strikeouts over 218 at-bats
The Reds’ Elly De La Cruz is hitting .274 with 78 hits, 14 home runs, and 43 RBI over 285 at-bats
The Reds’ Matt McLain is hitting .190 with 51 hits and 83 strikeouts over 268 at-bats
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Phillies at Reds
The Reds are 48-43 ATS
The Phillies are an MLB-worst 35-58 ATS
The Reds are 52-38-1 to the Over, ranking fifth-best
The Phillies are 48-40-5 to the Under, ranking sixth-best
The Reds are 22-24 ATS at home
The Phillies are an MLB-worst 18-29 ATS on the road
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Reds and the Phillies
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday's game between the Reds and the Phillies:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Phillies on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Phillies at -1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Under on the Game Total of 9.5
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MIAMI, FLORIDA - JULY 08: Pete Fairbanks #29 and Joe Mack #80 of the Miami Marlins embrace after defeating the Seattle Mariners at loanDepot park on July 08, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I think about the 2023 Texas Rangers a lot. (Wait, isn’t this daily question post supposed to be about the Marlins? Yes, bear with me.) Not because they won the World Series. (Did they win the World Series? I have no idea.) But because of this:
The 2023 Rangers were, before the season, projected as an 82-win team, fourth in their division. Though their talent level changed over the course of the season, the swing was more like two wins (to an 84-win talent level).
At the same time, these same Rangers finished second in MLB in position player fWAR and 20th in pitching fWAR, with a whopping 97ish WAR-wins. They did outhit their xwOBA by a bit, and benefited from an FIP lower than their xFIP by a bit, but nothing dramatic or even that notable.
They finished with 90 wins.
So, it was kind of a weird double-whammy. They finished notably better than their talent level, but notably worse than their production. And usually, those two italicized things also line up, so it was kind of a mis-triangulation in a bunch of different directions slash along a bunch of different axes. Hence, that squad living rent-free in my head.
As of right now, the 2026 Miami Marlins are tied with the Phillies record-wise, both three games behind the Braves. The Fish and Phils hold the final two Wild Card spots in the NL, now up two games on the Cardinals.
The Marlins…
Were projected, preseason, with a central estimate of 76 wins. Their talent level estimation has barely gone up over the course of the season (to around 77 wins).
They are currently sixth in position player value and tenth in pitching value. Their current WAR-wins total is 50; the Marlins have 51 actual wins.
They have the league’s second-biggest xwOBA outperformance (after the Rockies), but also the league’s second-lowest HR/FB on the pitching end (which is probably park-aided, but then see the xwOBA outperformance).
So, it’s not exactly the same as the 2023 Rangers. But you can see why I’m going there. Are the Marlins good? They have had incredible production to date, but they’re 21st in team xwOBA and 15th in team xFIP. That combination of average-to-bottom-third is in line with a high 70s-win team (i.e., their projection central estimate). Meanwhile, the Marlins are on pace for 89 wins. If they keep it up, it’ll be a wild ride.
But, all of that is just a bunch of information. The Marlins’ outperformance could cease and they could regress, or it could keep up and give the Braves, Phillies, and other NL contenders a headache. Or, they could actually start playing better and become more 2023 Rangers-esque.
Do you think they’ll pass the Phillies this season? What about the Braves? I don’t necessarily mean when all is said and done, just… can they keep their run up enough to do so, even temporarily? They’ve lost just eight times in the last five-and-a-half weeks, which is quite an April/May 2026 Braves heater.
Jul 6, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez (61) pitches during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Monday wasn’t a good day for any of the Phillies, but perhaps it was the worst for Cristopher Sánchez. The ace lefty suffered through his worst start in his big-league career to this point, as he allowed 9 runs on 12 hits in just 3.1 innings. It was the most runs he’s ever allowed in a start and the most he’s allowed in a start since August of 2024. It also tied his career high in hits allowed and the second time this year he’s allowed 12 hits in a start.
All baseball players go through slumps, including pitchers. It’s extremely common for anyone to have an off day where absolutely nothing goes right even in a season where almost everything has gone well. Sánchez will in all likelihood rebound from this disaster and continue to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.
However, this clunker may have cost him some notable recognition. It couldn’t have come at a much worse time in regard to the possibility of Sánchez starting the All-Star game on his home mound. It was already shaping up to be a debate, but recency bias is now firmly against Sánchez. Brewers’ fireballer Jacob Misiorowski being ineligible to pitch certainly helps Sánchez’ chances, but he still went from being second in the NL in ERA and seventh in WHIP to seventh and 15th respectively.
But that’s not all, as this start inflated his numbers to the point where he may have also cost himself a chance at the NL Cy Young award at season’s end. There’s still plenty of baseball to be played and things change all the time, but Sánchez was already facing an uphill battle against Misiorowski. Now the statistical gap between the two is even wider with others such as Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Chase Burns also looking like contenders.
So, did Cristopher Sánchez cost himself the All-Star start and the Cy Young with his bad start?
MESA, ARIZONA - MARCH 22, 2026: Andrew Fischer #3 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws to first base during the second inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Athletics at Hohokam Stadium on March 22, 2026 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
It’s hard to argue with the Brewers’ recent draft results. Jacob Misiorowski is already a two-time All-Star, while Cooper Pratt, Braylon Payne, Blake Burke, and Andrew Fischer have emerged as some of the organization’s brightest young stars. Milwaukee will look to add another name or two to that list this weekend as the 2026 MLB Draft gets underway. Here’s everything you need to know before the Brewers are on the clock Saturday afternoon.
What picks do the Brewers have?
Milwaukee has three picks in the first three rounds. They only have two picks in the top 100, their fewest top 100 picks in the last eight years.
First round:
No. 25
Second round:
No. 66
Third round:
No. 102
After that, the Brewers have one pick in each remaining round. Last year, after selecting infielders Andrew Fischer and Brady Ebel with their first two picks, Milwaukee drafted five straight pitchers. In 2024, every selection they made between the fifth and 13th rounds was a pitcher. Don’t be surprised if the Brewers once again prioritize pitching depth on Day 2.
Milwaukee also had a second-round competitive balance pick (No. 67), but traded it to Boston in the trade that brought Kyle Harrison, David Hamilton, and Shane Drohan to Milwaukee.
What are the Brewers’ organizational strengths and weaknesses?
Most consider the Brewers’ farm system to be the best in baseball. By “most,” I mean Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN… you get the idea.
Strengths: The Brewers’ biggest strength is the middle infield, led by the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball, shortstop Jesús Made. Milwaukee also has three other middle infielders ranked among MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects: Luis Peña (No. 2 in the organization, No. 18 overall), Cooper Pratt (No. 3, No. 56 overall), and Jett Williams (No. 5, No. 81 overall). Josh Adamczewski (No. 6), who has hit at least .320 in every season of his professional career, came up as a middle infielder but has shifted to the outfield simply because there’s nowhere else to play him. Last year, Milwaukee also took Brady Ebel (No. 14) with the No. 32 pick.
Honestly, it’s easier to ask what the Brewers don’t have. They have plenty of promising corner infielders, led by Andrew Fischer (.299/.441/.713, 28 home runs between High-A and Double-A), Blake Burke (.885 OPS, 19 home runs in Double-A), and Luke Adams (.942 OPS in 38 Triple-A games). They also have 11 pitchers in MLB Pipeline’s organizational Top 30, led by Logan Henderson (No. 7) and Bishop Letson (No. 10), plus another handful who could realistically crack those rankings in the near future. In last year’s article, I highlighted Coleman Crow, Tyson Hardin, and Ethan Dorchies as unranked pitchers to watch. Sure enough, all three have since appeared in MLB Pipeline’s rankings, and Crow ended up making the big leagues.
Last year, I also listed the outfield as one of the Brewers’ biggest organizational weaknesses. One year later, it’s become one of their strengths. Luis Lara‘s breakout season earned him a seven-year extension worth at least $31 million, while Braylon Payne (.281, .967 OPS, 16 home runs) has taken a huge step forward. Williams can play the outfield, Adamczewski has already made the move there, and younger prospects like Alexander Frias, Josiah Ragsdale, Brailyn Antunez, and Kenny Fenelon have all shown flashes. Add in a major league outfield already headlined by Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and now Lara, and it’s suddenly become a pretty deep positional group.
Weaknesses: Honestly… maybe catcher?
Jeferson Quero (No. 9) and Marco Dinges (No. 11), both of whom the Brewers are extremely high on, are the only two catching prospects in the organization who project as potential above-average major leaguers. Even then, calling catcher a weakness feels like a bit of a stretch.
Milwaukee already has an All-Star behind the plate in William Contreras, while players like Matthew Wood (.891 OPS in 189 Double-A at-bats) have produced despite flying under the radar. Besides, organizations don’t need nearly as many catching prospects as they do pitchers, infielders, or outfielders.
Either way, I would expect the Brewers to draft a catcher at some point during the draft. In a recent mock draft, Baseball America had the Brewers selecting high school C/SS Cole Prosek, the nephew of Brewers third base coach Matt Erickson, with their first-round pick.
The reality is that the Brewers don’t have many glaring organizational weaknesses. They have impact talent at nearly every position and enough depth throughout the system that they’re in a position to draft the best player available rather than trying to fill a specific need.
Who will the Brewers take?
One player who has been frequently mocked to Milwaukee is Ace Reese, a third baseman from Mississippi State who reminds evaluators of recent Brewer first-round picks Brock Wilken and Andrew Fischer. Reese slashed .336/.432/.721 with 24 home runs in 247 at-bats this season. Both ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and The Athletic’s Keith Law have him going to the Brewers at No. 25 overall.
In addition to Reese and Prosek, other players who could be in play at No. 25 include Zion Rose (OF, Louisville), Aidan Ruiz (SS, Stony Brook HS), and Cade Townsend (RHP, Ole Miss).
One thing to keep in mind: the Brewers have frequently gone under slot (spent less than the projected value of the pick) with their first-round pick to free up bonus pool money for later rounds, where they can target high-upside prospects with strong college commitments. Don’t be surprised if their first selection isn’t any of the names listed here. Ultimately, only Matt Arnold and the front office know the answer to this question, and the Brewers usually find a way to surprise.
How much can the Brewers spend?
After trading away its Competitive Balance selection, Milwaukee’s bonus pool is $8,042,900, which ranks 25th in Major League Baseball. Their first-round selection (No. 25) carries a slot value of $3,696,000, although the Brewers can choose to spend less or more on whatever prospect they select.
Day 1:
Round 1 (No. 25): $3,696,000
Round 2 (No. 66): $1,353,100
Round 3 (No. 97): $853,000
Round 4 (No. 127): $614,800
Day 2:
Round 5 (No. 157): $455,900
Round 6 (No. 187): $351,600
Round 7 (No. 217): $275,100
Round 8 (No. 247): $224,400
Round 9 (No. 277): $202,100
Round 10 (No. 307): $191,900
In rounds 11-20, teams are allowed to offer up to $150,000 in signing bonuses without it counting towards their bonus pool. They are allowed to offer more, but any money spent in excess of that limit is then counted toward the pool.
How do I watch the 2025 MLB Draft?
The 2026 MLB Draft begins at 12:00 p.m. CT on Saturday. Picks 1-10 will be televised on NBC and Peacock, picks 11-40 will air on MLB Network, MLB.com, and MLB.TV, and picks 41-135 will stream on MLB.com and MLB.TV. The rest of the draft takes place at 10:30 a.m. CT on Sunday and will stream live on MLB.com and MLB.TV.
The Cubs’ 9-7 win over the Orioles Wednesday evening, their third straight and 18th in their last 24, had a little bit of everything the 2026 season to date has provided.
Lots of homers? Check.
Some great defense? Check.
Some dodgy relief work, pointing out the need for bullpen improvements? Double-check, because the Cubs came close to blowing a six-run seventh-inning lead, yikes.
All right, since that didn’t happen, let’s begin at the beginning.
That was a tremendous catch by Taylor Ward. It’s not totally clear from the clip, but Ward might have stolen a home run from Bregman. At least Bregman is starting to drive the ball again. Good things should follow.
Pretty, pretty cool, I’d say. PCA’s going to be a candidate for Player of the Week again if he keeps this up. One more fact about PCA’s third-inning homer from BCB’s JohnW53:
The Cubs went 157 plate appearances without a homer from the last of the eight vs. the Padres on July 1 until Pete Crow-Armstrong’s in the third inning Wednesday night.
The Orioles tied the game off Colin Rea in the bottom of the third, scoring a run on a double play. Then Rea gave up a two-run homer to Pete Alonso in the fourth that gave Baltimore a 3-1 lead. For Alonso it was his 16th career homer off Cubs pitching, the most off any team not in the NL East, where he used to make his home.
The Cubs came roaring back to take the lead in the fifth with three more long balls of their own.
Two pitches, two runs, pretty efficient! More on these two homers from John:
The homers by Michael Conforto and Carson Kelly were just the Cubs’ second back-to-back blasts this season. The previous pair were by Alex Bregman and Ian Happ on March 29, at home vs. the Natiionals.
The Cubs hit 16, 12, 20, 10 and 10 pairs in the last five seasons. They have homered back-to-back 408 times in the regular season since 1876, plus 11 sets of back-to-back-to-back, for a total of 419 sets of consecutive homers.
Rea was removed with one out in the sixth with another decent outing, the only real mistake the home run pitch to Alonso. Drew Pomeranz finished up the sixth without incident and then the Cubs blew the game open — or so we thought! — with a five-run seventh.
With one out, Carson Kelly walked and Dansby Swanson singled. The O’s called on Grant Wolfram, who had faced 113 batters before this game and walked four of them. Of course that meant he walked the first hitter he faced, PCA. (And you think the Cubs have bullpen issues. Well, yes, they do, but so do a lot of other teams!)
The sac fly made it 5-3, and both trailing runners moved up. Michael Busch walked to load the bases again — that means within three batters, Wolfram had walked half as many as he had for the entire season before this game.
This was Grant Wolfram’s night to do stuff he hadn’t done all year. Before this game he had not allowed a single home run, as noted, among 113 batters faced. That streak reached 116 with the three batters faced in this game up to this point.
The Cubs had a six-run lead heading to the bottom of the eighth. You would think that would be enough.
My friends, it almost wasn’t. Pomeranz, left in to throw the seventh, allowed a home run to Tyler O’Neill that made it 9-4, and then two more singles before he was replaced with Trent Thornton. Thornton finished off the inning, but not before he gave up an RBI single, the run charged to Pomeranz. Still, it’s 9-5 going to the eighth. What could possibly…
Don’t finish that question and don’t answer it. Two more O’s homers off Caleb Thielbar — who’s really not having a good year at all — made it 9-7. That included O’Neill’s second homer of the game, and the fourth Orioles long ball to add to the Cubs’ five homers on the evening. And things could have been worse. After the homers, with two out Jackson Holliday doubled, bringing Gunnar Henderson to the plate as the potential tying run.
But could the Cubs record three outs in the ninth without giving up two runs?
Well, you now know the answer to that. Jacob Webb, who’s done a decent job filling in as closer for Daniel Palencia, recorded the first two outs of the ninth, both ground balls, on just four pitches. Then he ran a 1-2 count on Alonso… at which time some idiot ran onto the field. As is normal policy for TV channels, Marquee correctly didn’t show this, though Boog and JD said this person was wearing Cubs garb. Don’t do that. Just don’t. Seriously.
For Webb, that was his, uh, team-leading fourth save. So, yay?
Sure, yay. Someone’s got to do the job. But clearly, in addition to needing some rotation help, the Cubs need bullpen reinforcements. Some might come when injured relievers (including Palencia) return. But Jed Hoyer should also be exploring the trade market for relief pitchers.
One last note, this one on the Cubs’ five-homer game, from John:
After hitting five home runs in a 6-0 win over the Red Sox at Wrigley Field on July 19, 2025, the Cubs did not hit five again in 149 consecutive game. Now they have done it in three of their last seven: five on June 30, eight on July 1 and five vs. the Orioles — with none in the four games between the last two.
The Cubs picked up a game on the Brewers, who lost Wednesday to the Cardinals, and trail Milwaukee by six games, while still leading the third-place Cardinals by 3.5 games. The Cubs also lead the Phillies by 1.5 games for the top wild card spot.
All’s well that ends well, though, and the Cubs continue to find ways to win. They’ll go for the series sweep Thursday afternoon — and that’s a change, the game’s been moved up to 12:35 p.m. CT due to impending weather in Baltimore Thursday evening, as noted here last night. David Peterson gets the start for the Cubs and Trevor Rogers goes for the O’s. TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network and the BCB game preview will post at 11 a.m. CT.
May 31, 2025; Oxford, MS, USA; Georgia Tech Yellowjackets catcher Vahn Lackey (25) reacts after stealing second base during the first inning against the Murray State Racers. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Thanks to a disastrous 2025 season, the Twins are set to draft a soon-to-be top MLB prospect with the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft this weekend. It is their highest draft pick since 2017 when they selected Royce Lewis with the 1st overall pick, and their last two top 3 picks before that were Byron Buxton and Joe Mauer. Not bad! It goes without saying that a pick of this significance will have massive implications on the future of the Minnesota Twins franchise. As we approach draft day, I took a little dive into the top prospects in this draft class and ranked my top 5 hopefuls for the Twins if they are available at 3. Enjoy!
1. SS Roch Cholowsky – UCLA
Roch Cholowsky has been the top prospect in this year’s draft for a while, but doubts are rising as the draft approaches, with some scouts opting to push Grady Emerson or Vahn Lackey to the top spot. They are all phenomenal prospects of course, but as a gold glove caliber shortstop with an all-around great offensive profile, Roch stays put at the top for me.
He had a more slender build when MLB Pipeline ranked him as the No. 44 prospect in the 2023 draft out of high school. Instead, Cholowsky went to UCLA and was able to beef up without losing the athletic profile. Meanwhile, he was producing at an elite level the entire time. He combines a short and well-controlled swing with excellent bat speed and some loft that allows him to carry the ball out consistently to all fields. There is a little more aggression in his approach that will have to be monitored as he begins his pro career, but it is an elite combo of hit and power.
Defensively, Roch has a cannon arm that consistently produces highlight throws when he’s on the move or deep in the gap. While he’s an average runner, he is incredibly smart and instinctual, which shows up both in the field and on the bases. Excellent range and defensive actions are pushing Cholowsky’s defense into elite-level shortstop talks.
While it is still highly unlikely that he is available when Minnesota is on the clock, the chances have grown, and he should be a shoo-in for the No. 3 pick if he still happens to be on the board. The Twins have lacked true shortstop prospects in recent years but would move into an excellent spot with Cholowsky and Houston, while Culpepper sits on the border. It would set them up for a future level of infield defense that we have not seen from this team in a long time. And oh yeah, Roch can hit the crap out of the ball too!
Vahn Lackey has been highly touted throughout his college years for his excellent backstop defense, but back-to-back breakout years at the plate have thrown him into “best player in college baseball” territory.
There are a lot of moving parts in his swing, including a big leg kick and stride out. He loads his hands early and has a powerful, yet easy drive through the zone. Doesn’t miss a fastball, but I worry about his ability to adjust to offspeed given how much pre-swing movement there is. His contact skills have looked good in college and his swing decisions have improved nicely over the past few years, but I do think there could be some more whiff as he moves into the pros. Still, it’s an above-average hit tool with plus power potential.
Lackey is a unique catcher with an impressive athletic profile. He stole 18 bags in 2025 and 15 more in 2026. He possesses excellent quickness at the catcher position, moving laterally and blocking with ease. He has a plus arm with a lightning-quick trigger.
Its a plus catching profile with the tools to be a high-end bat, and the continued development makes me hopeful that there is even more in the tank. He may get pushed through the minors a little slower than fans would hope to allow the bat to continue developing, but the defense is already looking great. It’s a high floor, high ceiling player. The Twins haven’t drafted a catcher anywhere in the first round since Joe Mauer, but Vahn Lackey is the odds-on favorite to become Minnesota’s first selection of the weekend and he absolutely has the talent to warrant that.
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) May 31, 2026
3. SS Grady Emerson – Fort Worth Christian (HS)
Looking through clips of Grady Emerson’s swing on Twitter is fun because I watch them and say “wow that swing is beautiful” and then realize that it’s a post from 2023 when he had just entered high school. Emerson has been at the top of this class ever since scouts laid eyes on him.
His swing is so smooth. So simple and efficient in his load, gliding through the zone with some good loft and impressive bat speed. Emerson batted .532 with some solid power and was nearly impossible to strike out while showing off an incredibly mature approach. He’s a very well-rounded hitter with an easy plus hit tool, an advanced approach, and developing power.
Defensively, Grady is above-average across the boards and possesses a unique fluidity that pushes his shortstop defense into plus territory. Great instincts give him easy range and he pairs it with fluid actions and an above-average arm.
There is always more uncertainty about how high school prospects will mature physically. You can project a certain amount of added power, but it’s difficult to be certain about it, and you never know what some added muscle will do to their movement. I feel comfortable slotting Emerson in with an above-average power tool, but its not quite on Roch’s level and there is a more limited defensive ceiling. He gives me some Jackson Holliday vibes. An uber-polished high school hitter that will fly through the minors, but may not quite have that truly elite ceiling.
Grady Emerson may not be on the board very long 👀@CarlosACollazo has heard Emerson sounds like a strong fit for both the Rays and Twins in the top three.
Just one year after Tyler Bremner shot up the boards and went 2nd overall, another UCSB arm in Jackson Flora is slated to end up in the top 5. With a 1.06 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 102 innings this season, the hype is absolutely warranted.
Flora is 6’5” with long levers and some freakish arm speed. Its a whippy arm action and a lower release point. His fastball sits 96-98 and has touched triple digits. With good carry, its already an easy plus offering with potential to be one of the best fastballs in the world. He has a pair of plus breaking balls, one in the mid 80s and the other in the low 80s, both displaying some wicked sweep with huge whiff potential. His changeup has developed nicely this year, and while he is still finding the feel for command, the pitch is now flashing plus splittler-like depth.
He is a good strike-thrower, but the whippy arm motion may expose some weaknesses in command as he faces off against more talented hitters in the pros. He holds his velocity and stuff well throughout starts and has ace potential that we could see in the majors as soon as 2027. Given the three hitters at the top of charts, Flora is sitting comfortably in the No. 4 spot, but he is absolutely in play at pick 3 or even higher if one of these teams wants to go the pitching route.
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) May 15, 2026
5. OF Drew Burress – Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech’s superstar turned into a running mate this year with Vahn Lackey’s breakout, but Drew Burress has been unbelievably productive for the Yellow Jackets since the day he stepped on campus. If you just looked at the home run totals and exit velocities, you would be shocked to see that Burress is just 5’9” with a pretty compact build. Likewise, if you only looked at his height and weight, you would be shocked to find out that he is Georgia Tech’s all-time home run leader.
He packs a punch in his big and lofty swing. He starts his swing standing straight up and has a sizable stride out, but a minimal hand load keeps him on time as he explodes out with quick, twitchy hands. All throughout college, Burress has posted excellent contact rates against fastballs, but has had issues adjusting to secondaries. Still, he maintains a solid hit tool and patient approach, allowing him to maximize his power output, which is plus raw pop with elite pulled fly ball rates.
Defensively, he manned centerfield for Georgia Tech, showing off good range and a plus arm. He’s not an elite defender out there and will likely end up in a corner, but is a capable centerfielder. Not an aggressive base-stealer in college, but a good runner and all-around impressive athlete.
It is mostly a 3-man race between Cholowsky, Lackey, and Emerson for Minnesota at pick 3, and if the Twins decide to go another direction, I would be shocked if they choose to add to their already overcrowded outfield group. Still, the dynamite bat that Drew Burress swings is going to intrigue some teams at the top of the draft and for good reason.
Georgia Tech CF Drew Burress is proving that size doesn’t always matter and is arguably the best pure hitter in the 2026 draft. Numerous EVs >115 MPH. 37% PullAir, 20° HH LA. Outlier combo of raw+game power along with 11% Z-Whiff. I think he sticks in CF. 3rd on my college board. pic.twitter.com/O8YOQUMbI4
The Twins obviously do not control their own destiny here, so its a wait-and-see game. If Roch Cholowsky is on the board at pick 3, I would take him with no hesitation. I’d be ecstatic to get Vahn Lackey as well. If those two are both gone when the Twins are on the clock, I think there is a conversation to be had about Flora. I would still take Emerson at 3, but I can see the vision with the flamethrowing righty. At this point, I don’t believe that any other option is in play for Minnesota. There is a lot of pressure that comes with a pick of this importance, but all of these guys have superstar potential and any of them could bust. Given the insane talent in each of these players, the Twins are getting a franchise cornerstone type of asset no matter what.
Since completing their home sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates in early June, the Atlanta Braves are 8-17, winning exactly one series over that span.
But they can change that tune Thursday afternoon, somewhat fittingly against the Pirates.
After a beatdown loss in Game 1 and a late scoring surge in a shutout win in Game 2, the Braves close out their series in Pittsburgh Thursday at 12:35 p.m. ET before heading to St. Louis for a weekend series.
If they’re going to win a series and begin to trend back in the right direction, a strong performance on the mound from Bryce Elder would set them on that path.
The right-hander’s 5-6 record and 4.01 ERA are certainly not representative of his recent form. He’s been off since June 27, skipped once through the order after some serious struggles of late.
After he had a 5-3 record and 2.66 ERA through his first 14 starts, he’s lost his last three starts, allowing a combined 19 runs on 27 hits over 14 innings. Opposing teams had a .313 batting average and 1.61 WHIP against Elder in June, with 35 hits and 24 runs allowed in 26 2/3 innings.
Maybe another start against the Pirates will be what he needs to take a step back in the right direction. His last effective start came against Pittsburgh in Atlanta, allowing two runs on two hits over six innings. At that time, that was his 10th quality start in 14 total starts this season.
Suffice it to say, he hasn’t had close to another one of those since.
In his career against Pittsburgh, Elder is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA over four starts, striking out 26 and walking five over 24 innings.
He’ll be facing off against Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller. In the Pirates’ pre-Paul Skenes era, Keller was someone who seemed like a possible future ace for them. The former second-round pick was an All-Star in 2023 and had an ERA of 4.25 or better in each of the last four seasons.
This season, though, has been more of a struggle for Keller, now 30, who enters with a 6-6 record and 5.02 ERA, his worst since his first 100-inning season in 2021.
Like Elder, he had a stellar ERA early in the season that has taken a hit of late. In his six starts since June began, he’s 1-4 with a 6.47 ERA, 23 strikeouts and 13 walks in 32 innings. While his skid really began in his last start of May, he wasn’t very good back on June 5 at Atlanta, allowing six runs — tied for his second most this season — on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings.
That’s basically in line with Keller’s track record against the Braves. He has a 1-4 record and 7.85 ERA in eight career starts against Atlanta.
After Atlanta was so incredible in rubber matches early in the year, winning eight of their first nine, they’ve lost their last four deciding games of series.
This presents another chance to end that drought and build back some momentum with both the Phillies and Marlins only three games back in the NL East.