While Mets right-hander Kodai Senga's upside as a starting pitcher remains tantalizing, it is difficult to envision a scenario where New York enters the 2027 season with him seriously in the mix for a spot in the rotation -- not with New York needing more certainty in a season where they'll look to break their two-year streak of the rotation wrecking their hopes.
Following his tremendous rookie campaign in 2023 (2.98 ERA, 10.9 strikeouts per nine) and strong performance in 2025 before his hamstring injury (3.02 ERA, 10.4 strikeouts per nine), the last calendar year of Senga the starter has been a disaster.
After returning from his injury last season, Senga had a 5.90 ERA (5.76 FIP) in 39.2 innings over nine starts. Those struggles led to him accepting an assignment to Triple-A Syracuse in September to work things out, but Senga never got to a point where he was comfortable returning to the majors.
This season, things took a bad turn in early April. Following two solid starts to begin the year, Senga became close to unpitchable. Over his first seven starts, he compiled a 10.08 ERA (7.47 FIP) while completing five innings just twice.
Since June 28, Senga has worked almost exclusively in relief (he made one emergency start on July 31 in place of the soon-to-be-traded Freddy Peralta), with the Mets trying to determine his specific bullpen role. On Tuesday night against the Guardians in Cleveland, that role came into focus.
With the bullpen mostly gutted after the trades of Luke Weaver, Huascar Brazoban, Brooks Raley, and A.J. Minter, the Mets now have what they say is a clear runway to use Senga as a high-leverage option.
"I want to see him as a leverage reliever," interim manager Andy Green said before Tuesday's game. "See him in a one-inning burst. We talked about it, the construction of our 'pen did not allow it when we had Minter and Brazo, and Weaver and Raley. It does now. We’re aware with his traditional workload as well, I don’t expect him to pitch three out of four at this time. I do think that his right arm has 100 mph and a nasty forkball. That profile plays for a late-inning reliever."
Along with Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, and -- to a lesser extent -- Sean Manaea (who has turned things around lately), the Mets will likely enter next season with a handful of high-paid players whose roles and future on the team could be up in the air. Senga will be entering the final season of his contract, owed $15 million.
While the future doesn't appear rosy for Polanco (injury issues, an OPS+ of 9) or Semien (.614 OPS as his offensive production continues to trend down), there's reason to believe Senga can excel in a late-inning relief role, which could make him an asset for 2027.
A potential deciding factor when it comes to if this will work is whether Senga -- who is meticulous when it comes to his routines and mechanics -- can adjust to a role where he is thrust into action at a moment's notice and asked to pitch more than he ever has in his career. But if he buys in and can make the adjustment, there's reason for hope.
In the only sample we have so far, which was on Tuesday night, Senga performed well while relying mainly on the two-pitch mix Green mentioned.
Of the 18 pitches Senga threw in his scoreless ninth inning to close out New York's victory (one walk was the only blemish), 13 were four-seam fastballs and two were forkballs. Senga also mixed in two cutters and one sinker.
Senga's fastball velocity also ticked up.
His four-seamer, which has averaged 96.2 mph this season, averaged 97.3 mph on Tuesday and topped out at 98.8 mph.
While Senga's four-seamer -- his most-used offering -- hasn't played up this season, with opposing hitters slugging .569 against it, the pitch was a major weapon for him during his rookie season and can still be a weapon.
In 2023, Senga's four-seamer graded out among the best pitches in baseball -- in the 98th percentile, via Baseball Savant. That season, it averaged 95.7 mph, right around where it's averaged this season. So it stands to reason that if Senga can again harness his four-seamer, he'll be in strong shape.
As far as Senga's forkball, it remains one of the most dastardly pitches in baseball.
The fork has been Senga's second-most used pitch this year (he's thrown it 24.2 percent of the time), with opposing batters hitting just .109 with a .152 slugging percentage and zero home runs against it. And the xSLG against the offering (.163) hammers home that the success of the fork is no fluke.
Meanwhile, Senga's other pitches have not fared well. Batters are slugging .917 against his sweeper, .900 against his slider, and .800 against his sinker. So again, Senga relying mainly on the four-seamer and fork makes all the sense in the world.
As Senga continues his transition from starter to bulk reliever to high-leverage reliever, one of the most important things to follow is how the four-seamer plays -- and whether he can maintain his velocity and remain effective as he works on shorter rest.
I wrote on Monday that the Mets' bullpen for 2027 is Devin Williams and seven shrug emojis. If Senga can blossom in his new role, though, the number of shrug emojis could be down to six.