Category: MLB

Game Recaps

Phillies, Stott end blazing August with an all-around win vs. D-backs by Michael Reynolds [MLB]

The Phillies closed July having lost four straight games and four straight series, but they opened August with four straight wins and never looked back. 

With a 2-1 victory over the D-backs in Monday’s series opener, the Phillies closed August at 21-7, tied for the 10th-best month by winning percentage in club history. They’ve swept four of their last five series and are riding a five-game heater.

Bryson Stott hits a solo HR, Phillies beat the Diamondbacks 2-1 to cap 21-win August [ESPN]

Stott crushed a 464-foot homer to right field in the second that gave the Phillies a 1-0 lead. Bryce Harper‘s double off the center field wall in the third scored Garrett Stubbs and pushed the advantage to 2-0.

Nola (6-10) pitched into the sixth inning, giving up one run on five hits and two walks, striking out five. The veteran right-hander has given up two runs or less in five straight starts.

Diamondbacks News

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte & Torey Lovullo full press conferences before the Phillies series [Arizona Sports]

Ketel Marte said he had no message for Diamondbacks fans, but they did by Alex Weiner [Arizona Sports]

Boos from the Chase Field crowd overpowered the cheers when Ketel Marte stepped up to the plate on Monday, his first at-bat since his Boston no-show two weeks ago.

Before the game, Marte faced questions from the media, and when asked whether he had a message for Diamondbacks fans, Marte shook his head. Paying more attention to addressing his teammates, he neglected the fanbase that has been cheering him on for 10 years, essentially declining to swing at a meatball.

Diamondbacks Give New Injury Update on Gurriel, Burnes, Gallen & More by Jack Sommers [SI]

Lovullo could not say exactly when and where Burnes would pitch his next outing. It sounded like there was some concern that the velocity was not there yet (down 2 MPH on his signature cutter).

“Every time he throws a pitch, it’s shown at 90-91. It’s not the 92-94 that we know he can get to. It’s not a top end. So I know there’s some that say yes, and I’m in that camp that you’re building up that overall number. And it’s not the same, but we want that big number,” Lovullo said.

Around the League

Cubs set franchise record with nine homers in rout of Brewers by Jordan Bastian [MLB]

The North Siders welcomed the rival Brewers to Wrigley Field for the opener of a crucial four-game series and flexed their propensity for power en route to a 17-3 rout. Alex Bregman went deep three times as part of a nine-homer attack that set a single-game record for home runs in the long, storied history of the Cubs.

The nine homers are tied for the second-most in a game in MLB history since at least 1900, trailing only the 10 homers launched by the Blue Jays on Sept. 14, 1987. Chicago’s 62 homers in August set a one-month record for the team, and are second all-time for a calendar month in baseball history. Only the 2019 Yankees (74 in August) have hit more. 

Chisholm Jr., Yankees criticize Red Sox radio voice Flemming by Alden Gonzalez[ESPN]

There was no radio silence from the Yankees on Monday, a day after comments made by Boston Red Sox play-by-play announcer Will Flemming added some fuel to the longtime rivalry.

In fact, several Yankees players went out of their way to openly criticize Flemming, calling him “unprofessional” and questioning why a radio voice would suggest a team throw at an opposing player.

Flemming, who works for Boston radio station WEEI, first called Jazz Chisholm Jr. a “bush league player” after he stole a pair of bases in the eighth inning of Sunday’s series finale in the Bronx with New York ahead 7-1. He then suggested to WEEI color analyst Will Middlebrooks that Red Sox left-hander Jovani Moran retaliate by beaning Yankees catcher Austin Wells, who was batting at the time.

Padres To Promote Ethan Salas by Anthony Franco [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Padres are calling up top catching prospect Ethan Salas, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Salas, who turned 20 in June, will be the youngest player in the big leagues (assuming no one takes that title from him tomorrow).

The Nats are calling up one of the more intriguing hitters in their system. Yohandy Morales was the Nationals second round pick in the 2023 draft. After grinding his way through minors, the 24 year old is finally going to get his first look at the minor leagues. It is tough to say this call up is not deserved.

Morales was one of the biggest stories in the Nats minor league system to start the season. He looked ready for the big leagues after a red hot start to the season, but the Nats were hesitant to call him up. We will get into some of those reasons later, but first let’s start with the positives.

This year Morales has been highly productive. In 104 games at AAA, Morales is hitting .286 with 25 homers and an .882 OPS. The right handed slugger makes consistent hard contact with an average exit velocity of 91.5 MPH and a hard hit rate of 52.4%. All this hard contact, combined with lower launch angles allows Morales to consistently run high BABIP’s. Despite being a high strikeout guy, Morales is a .285 career hitter in the minors.

While he is a high strikeout guy, those numbers have gotten better this season. In AAA, his K% has gone from over 30% to 24.4% this year. He has also been able to turn his plus raw power into more actual home runs this year as well. Over half of his 47 MILB homers have come this season.

Morales has not done this by pulling the ball in the air though. His pull air numbers are very low and instead he uses the whole field to go yard. A lot of his best swings are to right-center field. This is both a blessing and a curse.

The ability to use the whole field and use it with authority is a rare gift. However, I think part of this might be due to him not being on time enough. Morales has had real trouble with high velocity, and will only see more of it up in the big leagues.

Honestly, Morales’ offensive profile reminds me quite a bit of Brady House. We saw how House struggled when he first came up. Morales might face similar growing pains. However, it is tough to tell how much he will even play down the stretch.

As a first baseman and third baseman, there is not an obvious spot in the lineup for him. Andres Chaparro, Abimelec Ortiz, Jorbit Vivas and Brady House are all fighting for reps in those positions. We could see him some at DH, but I think he could be more of a part time player.

I am still very interested to see what Morales can do. His profile feels like it should not work, yet to this point he has been a highly productive hitter. He hits a lot of ground balls, chases, whiffs and doesn’t pull the ball. Yet, he has 25 homers on the season and has made it to the big leagues. 

With the lockout looming, it feels like some prospects are being held back. However, Morales had to be put on the 40-man roster anyways at the end of the season. That likely played a role in his call-up. Yo-Yo is an intriguing and somewhat divisive prospect. I am curious to see how this first exposure to the big leagues goes for him.

This Week in the Minors is our weekly look at notable performances from all over the system, from big-name prospects and less-heralded guys alike. The mission is to answer this simple question: “Who had a good week?”

Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers (59-70, 20.5 games back)

The Storm Chasers dropped 4 of 6 in their series against the Iowa Cubs. At the plate, Carson Roccaforte, one of the newer members for Omaha, went 9 for 24, smacking a pair of doubles and homers, driving in 6 and scoring 3 runs. He also stole 4 bases. Peyton Wilson went 7 for 14, with two doubles and a homer, driving in three and scoring three. He also stole 4 bases too. Gavin Cross, who just got back from the IL, went 3 for 13 with two homers.

On the mound, Lucas Braun made 2 starts, totaling 10 innings, allowing 7 hits, 2 runs, walking 4 and striking out 9. My pick for the September call-up would be Braun on the pitching side. Matt Moore threw 3.2 scoreless innings of relief, over two outings, striking out 6. Tony Gonsolin, who may get some time in KC before the season is over, made his first appearance, going 3 innings, allowing just a walk, while striking out 3. Lucas Erceg pitched twice, totaling 3 innings, allowing 6 hits, 2 runs, striking out 3.

The Storm Chasers return home this week, taking on the St. Paul Saints, the series runs Tuesday through Sunday.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals (53-71, 24 games back)

The Naturals split their 6-game series against the Frisco RoughRiders. On the mound, Hunter Owen made one start, going 5.2 innings, allowing 6 hits, 1 run, a walk, striking out 10. In the month of August, Owen struck out 45 batters in 27 innings. In his 5 starts, he posted just a 1.33 ERA. He is a 24-year-old lefty that the Royals drafted in the 4th round in 2023 out of Vanderbilt. Augusto Mendieta had two scoreless outings out of the bullpen, totaling 4.2 innings, allowing 4 hits, 3 walks, but striking out 8. Frank Mozzicato had two more scoreless outings from the bullpen, totaling 4 hitless innings, he did walk 3, but struck out 4. Have the Royals found something with him in the pen? In 8 appearances in August, he went 11.2 innings, allowing 3 hits, 3 runs, walking 10, but striking out 17.

At the plate, Spencer Nivens went 8 for 22, with two doubles, three runs batted in, with 5 runs scored. Luke Pelzer went 6 for 18, with a double and triple, scoring five runs and stealing three bases. Javier Vaz went 5 for 15, with 4 doubles. It’s good to see Vaz back and playing. Hyungchan Um, who has quickly moved from Columbia to Quad Cities to Northwest Arkansas in recent weeks, went 2 for 10.

The Naturals hit the road this week, taking on the Arkansas Travelers. The series runs Tuesday through Sunday.

Quad Cities River Bandits (67-54, 4.5 games back)

The River Bandits won 4 of 6 in their series against the Beloit Sky Carp. The Bandits are 37-21 in the second half, holding a two-game lead over the Sky Carp to win the second half. They control their own destiny to get to the playoffs. At the plate, Blake Mitchell went 4 for 18, with a homer and 5 runs batted in. Ramon Ramirez returned from injury and went 3 for 19, with a homer and 4 runs batted in. Austin Charles went 6 for 18, with two homers, driving in 4 runs. Zion Rose went 4 for 14, with a double and two runs batted in.

On the mound, David Shields went 6 innings, allowing 3 hits, 2 runs, striking out 7 in his lone start of the week. Jordan Woods went 4.2 innings, allowing 5 hits, 1 run, striking out 4. Ethan McElvain threw 3 scoreless innings, allowing just 2 hits, while striking out 1. McElvain was the Royals 5th round pick out of Arkansas this year. Kamden Edge threw 3.1 scoreless, hitless innings, striking out 5. L.P. Langevin threw 4 innings, allowing an unearned run to score, but struck out 10 batters. John Means, born in Olathe, Kansas, started his rehab assignment from a torn Achillies. He made 2 starts in the week, totaling 3 innings, allowing 5 hits, 3 runs, walking 1 and striking out 1. Kendry Chourio made one start, going 3 innings, allowing 3 hits, 3 runs, striking out 4.

The River Bandits are on the road this week, taking on the Peoria Chiefs. The series runs Tuesday through Sunday. It is the last regular season series of the year.

Columbia Fireflies (63-62, 14.5 games back)

The Fireflies won 4 of 6 in their series against the Charleston RiverDogs. On the mound, Shane Van Dam went 4 innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 run, striking out 3 in his lone start of the week. Van Dam is a 22-year-old right hander, who the Royals took in the 9th round of the 2025 draft out of North Carolina State. Adrian Belen threw 3.2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen, allowing just 2 hits, while striking out one. Ryan McDonagh went 4 innings, allowing 1 hit, no runs, striking out 2 in his lone start of the week. Overall, it was a solid week on the mound for the Fireflies whole pitching staff.

At the plate, Tyson Moran went 5 for 16 with a double and triple, scoring 3 runs. Moran is a 20-year-old shortstop, who the Royals took in the 13th round last year from Canada. He just got to Columbia from the ACL. Connor Rasmussen went 5 for 16 with two doubles and a triple, with two RBI’s and 3 runs scored. Ricson Gonzalez went 6 for 11, driving in two and scoring two. Gonzalez is a 21-year-old catcher from Venezuela; he just recently got promoted from the ACL. The Royals signed Gonzalez when he was 17. Daniel Lopez went 4 for 10, scoring a run and driving one in. Lopez is a 20-year-old outfielder from the Dominican Republic. The Royals signed him when he was just 17 years old.

The Fireflies are on the road this week, taking on the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, the series runs Tuesday through Sunday. It is the final series of the year for the Fireflies.

With the calendar turning to September, the burning question in Astros fans hearts and minds is “if” they’ll be returning to the postseason.      After all, it’s been an agonizing 23 months since the playoff loss to the Tigers.    

September is a magical time.     For this author, nothing compares to Mike Scott’s no-hitter at the Dome on September 25, 1986 against the Giants.     Scott’s 13 K performance, the roar of the crowd, many of which refused to head to the exits long after the contest was etched in stone, is cemented in my sports fandom.     Clinching the division that day for just the second time in franchise history, and to do it at home was extra special.   

Five years earlier, Nolan Ryan’s fifth no hitter also took place at the Dome.    Ironically, Dusty Baker struck out on three straight pitches to end the one-sided affair.     With the win, Ryan passed Sandy Koufax’s record of four no-no’s.    

1999 saw the Killer B’s era culminate with a third straight NL Central title.     That particular September, they’d win 19 games.     

Of course, the 2019 Astros took a back seat to no one.    They’d win 107 games and the final month of the regular season started off with a bang.     After laboring through the first inning, tossing 21 pitches, Justin Verlander would settle in and throw his third career no hitter.    That would propel Houston to a dominant month from start to finish.    

In terms of saving the best for last, Vanessa Williams would be proud.     Jeff Bagwell would wait until September 30th of the 2000 campaign to launch his 47th.     The blast would come off of Brewers pitcher Everett Stull. Fun fact, Stull would win only 2 games in his brief MLB career.    

There have been monumental surprises in September as well.    Who can forget the unthinkable three game sweep in 2023 to the lowly Royals, who would drop a whopping 102 games that year?      There was also forgotten hero Jason Heyward who stepped in for Yordan Alvarez in securing a division title two seasons ago.     Heyward would not only hit a go-ahead homer against Seattle, but he’d also make some stellar defensive plays throughout their run.    

For the current batch of Astros, the road to the playoffs is a variety snack pack in the grocery store aisle.  On one hand, they’ll face some of the elite, such as the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves.     The Phillies and White Sox are also marching towards the playoffs.      On the flipside, they’ll face the Royals and A’s, who will be hovering around 100 losses by the time they close the books on the regular season.     Then of course are the dreaded Mariners, who on the 22nd and 23rd of this month will host us for a mini two game series.     Seattle has won 9 out of 11 meetings head-to-head thus far.     

Will the magical moment come from Josh Hader on the final day?    Will it come in dramatic fashion from Yordan Alvarez as he continues his chase for baseball’s triple crown?     One thing is for certain, fasten your seatbelts, it’s sure to be a wild ride.    

The Yankees’ West Coast trip didn’t get off to the best start, opening up their series against the Angels with a 10-1 loss that felt over pretty early. Whether it was a hangover from the blowout win they got on Sunday, the cross-country travel after playing four games in three days, or just a genuine bad night, at the end of the day it counts as an L in the record books all the same. Looking around across the league, there was at least one major rival that didn’t take advantage of their blunder.

Tampa Bay Rays (82-55) 2, New York Mets (62-76) 3

The odds didn’t look great for the Mets upsetting the Rays when they didn’t start Juan Soto for the opener of this series, but as it turned out they still had enough to get the job done. Robert Stock took the ball for the Metropolitans and delivered 5.1 innings without allowing a run, scattering five hits throughout his outing. The only time he came under threat was in the fifth when the first three Rays all got aboard on singles, but Stock managed to induce a weak pop up and a strikeout before Jonathan Aranda lined out to end the frame.

New York had taken the lead an inning earlier, Mark Vientos still managing to bring a run in on a double-play ball, but they remained shut down by Ian Seymour otherwise until the seventh inning. There, Vientos made up for not making the most out of his earlier RBI chance by depositing a ball over the wall in left-center to lead off the inning. Seymour got his 10th strikeout after that, but got hooked after giving up a single to Christopher Morel and had to watch as the Mets stringed a couple more hits together to push the lead to 3-0. Tampa finally got themselves on the scoreboard in the eighth inning against Daniel Duarte, collecting three singles and a walk to generate a pair of runs, but against Kodai Senga in the ninth they wasted a leadoff walk going down in order right after.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (75-63) 9, Seattle Mariners (64-74) 8 (10 innings): Oh Seattle, what a disappointing season you’ve had. The Mariners’ frustrating run continued with an extra-inning loss after they blew a three-run lead late on the road. They scored right away getting a Randy Arozarena leadoff double and a Julio Rodriguez double to follow up, but Mickey Gasper tied it right up with a solo shot in the bottom half of the first (continuing a small sample run that’s nevertheless one of the hottest months a hitter’s ever had). Boston then built their first lead of the night on a Jarren Duran two-run homer in the second, which Seattle immediately cut into with an Arozarena solo shot in the third and tied back up when Arozarena singled in a run in the fifth.

Boston was back at it in the bottom half of the fifth, Ceddanne Rafaela singling in a pair of runs to re-take the lead, but Seattle responded right away with a four-run sixth. Arozarena was again at the center of the offensive push, adding two more runs batted in to lead the way with four overall before Dominic Canzone followed with a two-run double to put the Mariners up 7-5. Cal Raleigh got into the mix in the seventh with a solo shot pushing the lead to three, but Boston was far from dead. Recently reinstated from the IL, Trevor Story doubled in a pair of runs in the eighth to cut the deficit to one before fellow reinforcement Roman Anthony led off the ninth with a triple that ate up Rodriguez out in center. Rafaela brought him home on a sac fly to tie the game and force extras, where the Mariners bunted their Manfred runner over to third before striking out to end their chances. Needing a clean inning, the M’s chose to intentionally walk two batters to get their matchup against Story with the force on everywhere, but Story laced a hit to the wall in center to walk it off.

Chicago White Sox (72-65) 3, Houston Astros (70-68) 6: In a battle of the other two divisions’ leaders, Houston came out on top. Anthony Kay was doing decently for Chicago through three innings, allowing only an unearned run through a couple of groundouts up until that point. In the fourth with a 2-1 lead though, Cam Smith tripled and Nelson Velázquez brought him in with a two-run shot to left to take the lead. Then the fifth inning fully undid him, a trio of singles loading the bases before he walked in a run and got pulled a batter later. Trevor Richards entered to face Smith, but he got his second extra-base hit of the night lining a double to drive in two more runs. Up 6-2, the Astros’ bullpen did a solid job covering 4.1 innings with four pitchers, only allowing a solo shot to Colson Montgomery in the seventh inning.

AL Wild Card Rock Fight

Texas Rangers (68-70) 8, Athletics (53-85) 1: The Rangers ran this one from the onset, scoring in the second inning and pouring it on over the next three. Elias Díaz and Cody Freeman gave Texas all the offense they’d need when the former grounded a run in and the latter slapped an RBI single in the second, supporting Jacob deGrom as he twirled seven shutout innings and allowed just a single hit all day, a leadoff single in the top of the second that got erased on a double play. The A’s lone run came in the ninth when Jonah Heim ripped a double to put runners on second and third and Darell Hernaiz lifted a sacrifice fly, but they couldn’t scratch any more across as the next two A’s went down without much of a fight.

Baltimore Orioles (69-69) 2, Colorado Rockies (52-86) 1: The Orioles got their lead in the seventh inning when Colton Cowser managed to beat out a double play ball to bring in a run on the force out. Cowser’s contributions didn’t stop there, however: he made the play of the game robbing Jake McCarthy of a potential walk-off home run with two outs in the ninth on a full-extension leap to steal victory out of the jaws of defeat.

The San Diego Padres had another big inning. But this time the pitching made the four-run fourth inning stand up and the Padres beat the Cincinnati Reds 5-0 to open their three-game series at Great American Ball Park on Monday.

San Diego was able to get to Cincinnati pitcher Brady Singer in the top of the fourth inning with six consecutive hits, which resulted in four runs. The only troubling part for the Padres was how the inning ended. Another failed bunt attempt that resulted in a pop out to the catcher was the first out of the inning and the inning ended one batter later with a ground ball double play.

The Padres opened the top of the fourth with a singles from Manny Machado and Ty France. With runners on the corners, Jackson Merrill brought home the first run of the game with s single through the right side of the infield. Xander Bogaerts followed with a two-run double and San Diego had a 3-0 lead with a runner in scoring position and still no outs. Dustin Harris brought Bogaerts in with another single and the Padres had a 4-0 advantage. Luis Campusano added the the fifth single of the inning to put runners at first and second. The momentum of the inning seemed to come crashing down when Sung-Mun Song popped a bunt into the air at home plate, which was caught for the first out of the inning. Singer was able to get out of the inning when Fernando Tatis Jr. grounded into and inning-ending 5-4-3 double play.

Michael King who had found himself in trouble in the first three innings stranding two runners on base in each frame, locked in with the lead. He worked a scoreless bottom of the fourth, facing just three batters and did the same in the fifth. King returned to the mound in the bottom of the sixth. He found himself in trouble once again and after a hit-by-pitch to put two on with two outs, Padres manager Craig Stammen came out to the mound. King convinced the first-year manager to leave him in the game and he rewarded him for his faith with a first-pitch line drive out to end the frame.

San Diego tacked on an insurance run in the top of the seventh inning after Tatis led off with a double to center field. Machado hit a one-out fly ball to right field, which allowed Tatis to tag up and advance to third. France delivered an RBI-single to give the Padres a 5-0 lead and was followed by Merrill with a single to put two runners on before Bogaerts filed out to end the inning.

King finished with six scoreless innings with just four hits allowed. He also walked three batters and hit two more, but he also recorded six strikeouts. Kyle Hart pitched two scoreless innings in the seventh and eighth innings and Wandy Peralta handled a scoreless ninth to help San Diego snap its three-game losing streak.

The Padres will try to make it two in a row and win the series with he Reds today at 3:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• According to multiple reports, the Padres are calling up top prospect Ethan Salas to make his MLB debut.

• San Diego announced on Monday that Luis Rengifo has a full tear of his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.

Baseball News:

• The Chicago Cubs had a historic night and hit nine home runs in a win over the Milwaukee Brewers.

• The Philadelphia Phillies held on for a 2-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• The Boston Red Sox got a walk-off win over the Seattle Mariners.

• Jacob deGrom allowed one hit over seven innings to lead the Texas Rangers over the Athletics.

Sonny Gray will not start tonight for the Red Sox. He’s not hurt, he’s just getting a little break. “I feel fine,” Gray said. “I think it’s just taking a few days, getting my body recovered, fully recovered, and that was it. Physically, I feel really good. About a month ago, we just talked about it and said, ‘Let’s re-evaluate when we get to [this point].’ So that’s what we did.” The Red Sox have not yet announced who will take the mound tonight, in what will likely be a bullpen game. Reminder: the owners have made September baseball essentially meaningless now.(Ian Browne, MLB.com)

Willson Contreras seems to be in a similar situation with his hamstring. Nothing has happened to it recently and he hasn’t had anything that’s being labeled a setback. Rather, he’s simply been dealing with the balky hamstring for several weeks and is now taking some time to let it recover before the playoffs. “I don’t want to paint the picture that it’s like something way worse happened. Just a recurrence of the same thing,” Chad Tracy said. “The triple, doubleheader, a hard run there. It creeps up again. And he played [Sunday], and just with some irritation again. It’s just to the point where if we need to give him another few days to let it calm down, we’re getting to a point where it’s tough to be short bodies.” (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

Luckily, Mickey Gasper was able to step right in for Contreras and pick up where he left off. Gasper was disappointed but understanding of the initial decision to send him back to Worcester. “GM is a tough job. Guys are coming back, and decisions had to be made,” he said, “so I understood why I was the man out.” But, in light of the fact that he was literally the best hitter in baseball during his time with the big league club, he did ask Craig Breslow what he needed to do to stay up. (Julian Benbow, Boston Globe)

It’s good that Gray and Contreras are getting some rest before the postseason. But you know what’s really restful? A nice, warm hug. Maybe that’s why Payton Tolle was giving them out on the field last night, even to people he’d never met. “It just kind of happened,” Tolle said about his hug with Dominic Canzone. “I was right there in front of him, like, ‘Bring it in for the big one.” (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)

The opposite of a hug is wishing physical violence on someone, which is what WEEI play-by-play man Will Flemming did during Sunday’s game against the Yankees, when he urged Red Sox players to throw at Jazz Chisholm and fight Austin Wells. Needless to say, Flemming has apologized for being a giant ass. Naturally, though, he couldn’t apologize without also taking other people to task for their behavior: “Since I have been receiving nonstop calls and threats,” he wrote on Twitter, “I felt like it was important to hop back on here and say: My comments during yesterday’s broadcast crossed a line. I’m emotional and a fan at heart and that bled into the broadcast.” (Chad Finn, Boston.com)

Rangers 8, A’s 1

• Baseball is fun again.
• And Jacob deGrom was dominant again.
• Bouncing back from a disastrous eight run outing where he was knocked out in the fourth inning, deGrom looked like vintage deGrom once again, facing the minimum 21 batters over seven innings while allowing just one baserunner — Lawrence Butler, on a second inning single — who was then erased on a double play.
• This is the second time in his last three games that deGrom has allowed just one hit.
• What is interesting is that deGrom is generally either quite good, or not good at all. In 18 starts of his 26 starts, he’s allowed two runs or fewer.
• He’s allowed three runs in one start, and four runs in another start.
• In his other six starts he has allowed five runs twice, six runs three times, and eight runs once.
• The home/road splits are pretty extreme for deGrom this year…he has a 2.42 ERA in 13 starts at home, and a 5.86 ERA in 13 starts on the road. His walk rate is higher on the road, his K rate is lower, and 11 of the 17 homers he has allowed have come on the road.
• With 8 Ks, deGrom moved up from 93rd to 88th on the all time strikeout list, passing Catfish Hunter, Dan Haren, Orel Hershiser, Rick Reuschel and Lance Lynn. He’s now 15 behind Aaron Nola, 27 behind Dazzy Vance, 35 behind Sonny Gray, and 52 behind Madison Bumgarner.
• The game was far enough out of reach late that the newly-recalled Robby Ahlstrom and Ben “Power to the” Peoples got to go an inning apiece to finish things out. Ahlstrom faced the minimum, but sadly, Peoples allowed a run on two outs, ending both the shutout and the one hitter.
• Per Statcast, the A’s had a .132 xBA in the game, so it wasn’t as if they were stinging the ball and just seeing it find gloves. Its the second lowest xBA allowed in a game this season by the Rangers, and the 79th lowest in the majors.
• The Rangers scored early and often, putting runs on the board in four of the first five innings and taking a comfy 7-0 lead into the sixth inning.
• Ezequiel Duran, anointed the leadoff man for the first time in his career, was 1 for 4 with a walk, and he is now slashing .273/.331/.448 on the year, which I don’t think any of us were expecting.
• Duran has also started a game in every spot in the batting order this season, 1 through 9. I’m curious as to how often a player does that.
• Justin Foscue homered. Way to go, Justin!
• Cody Freeman had a couple of hits, as he continues to play regularly against lefthanded pitching.
• It occurred to me when I was doing the lineup yesterday that I hadn’t typed in Nicky Lopez’s name for a while. His last start was on August 19 — since then, he has appeared in just six games, coming in in the middle or late innings. The last two times he has entered the game it was late in a blowout in place of Corey Seager, including in this game.
• Seager, incidentally, drew a couple of walks, had a barreled fly out to the wall, and had a hard hit groundout. He’s cooled down from that stretch when he was getting two hits in every game it seemed like, but he’s fine.
• Jacob deGrom touched 98.8 mph with his fastball, averaging 97.6 mph. Robby Ahlstrom’s fastball touched 96.4 mph. Ben Peoples maxed out at 95.3 mph with his fastball.
• Ezequiel Duran had a 110.9 mph single and a 105.6 mph fly out. Justin Foscue had a 105.7 mph home run. Brandon Nimmo had a 105.6 mph fly out and a 101.5 mph fly out. Jake Burger had a 105.4 mph single amd a 103.2 mph double. Corey Seager had a 105.0 mph fly out. Elias Diaz had a 104.8 mph fly out.
• That’s two in a row. The wins, they must continue.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The high-flying Los Angeles Dodgers are priced as hefty 62% moneyline favorites tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium as they search for their fourth straight home victory. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. 

My Cardinals vs Dodgers predictions expect L.A. to come out on top here against Michael McGreevy, who is struggling lately. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 1. 

Who will win Cardinals vs Dodgers today: Dodgers (62%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Michael McGreevy is in a rough spell for the St. Louis Cardinals, giving the Los Angeles Dodgers a clear path tonight. The right-hander has a 5.70 FIP over his last two starts with command and homer issues, plus a 5.02 mark over the last month.

The Dodgers are not in peak offensive form, but their 102 wRC+ at home is enough to attack McGreevy.

Eric Lauer has struggled too, posting a 5.50 xERA over his last two outings, but he rarely works deep, and Los Angeles’ bullpen owns a respectable 4.12 FIP over its previous 18.1 frames.

Against a Cardinals lineup with a 77 wRC+ recently, the Dodgers have the better full-game profile.

Play this pick up to 65%.

COVERS INTEL: Lauerhas been much more consistent at home this season, posting a 4.27 FIP, compared to a 5.96 mark on the road. 

Cardinals vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (47%)

I’m leaning Under 8.5 here, even with both starters carrying some recent risk.

The Dodgers are not exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now, posting an 88 wRC+ with a poor .084 ISO over the last week. That makes it harder to trust them to fully punish McGreevy, even with his recent command and homer issues.

The Cardinals’ offense is also struggling, and Lauer should not need to be perfect with Los Angeles’ bullpen in decent shape behind him.

The biggest separator is St. Louis’ relief corps, which owns a 2.65 FIP over its last 27 2/3 innings with a 12.04 K/9.

Play this pick up to 55%.

Cardinals vs Dodgers home run prediction: Jordan Walker (22%)

Jordan Walker has not gone deep lately, but the underlying numbers suggest one could be coming. The slugger owns a 56.3% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and 23.4-degree launch angle over the last week.

Walker is consistently putting the baseball in the air, and Lauer has allowed 2.08 HR/9 over his previous five appearances with an alarming 51.7% fly-ball rate during that span.

The Dodgers’ bullpen has not allowed many homers recently, but it has given up 46.5% fly balls over the last two weeks.

Walker has a chance to run into one tonight.

Play this pick up to 25%.

Cardinals vs Dodgers weather

Weather at Dodger Stadium looks clean tonight, with clear skies and temperatures falling from 75 F to 67 F. Winds are light to moderate at 7 to 9 mph, and rain chances sit at 0% throughout. No delay concern, with cooler late-game conditions that could slightly limit carry.

Cardinals vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals 39% | Dodgers 62%
• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (56%) | Dodgers -1.5 (45%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (54%) | Under 8.5 (47%)

Cardinals vs Dodgers trend

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the game total Under in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Cardinals vs Dodgers and game info

Cardinals vs Dodgers latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning.

The DMN’s Nate Sanchez writes about the Texas Rangers closing out August with an excellent performance from Jacob deGrom.

Kennedi Landry writes about deGrom’s seven innings of one-hit ball, which helped the Rangers enter September with a couple of wins in a row.

Jeff Wilson writes about deGrom rebounding from statistically one of his worst outings last week in Chicago to one of his best outings with Texas last evening.

Shawn McFarland writes that the Rangers will have to hope that a couple of last ditch veteran roster reinforcements can arrive sooner rather than later.

McFarland writes that reliever Robert Garcia could be an impact arm upon his return after missing much of the year.

And, the American League is terrible but Russell Dorsey writes that the Rangers could be a threat in October if they make it there.

Have a nice day!

I think you can imagine how frustrated Cubs players must have been after a week-plus worth of losses to the Mariners, Diamondbacks and Reds, three of those in soul-crushing walk-off fashion.

They took those frustrations out on the Brewers Monday evening at Wrigley Field, breaking the franchise record for home runs in a game that was set just last year. Alex Bregman’s three homers — the second time he’s done that this month — led the nine-homer outburst as the Cubs demolished the Brewers 17-3. Sure, three of those home runs were off Brewers first baseman Andrew Vaughn. So what? They count just the same. Regarding the Cubs hitting off position players this year:

Will this beatdown lead to more wins over the team’s division rival this week? That remains to be seen, but this one was sure a lot of fun.

The Cubs wasted no time in beginning the onslaught. Clay Holmes had an easy top of the first and then the hitting began. Seiya Suzuki drew a one-out walk, and one out later Tyrone Taylor hit the first of the nine long balls [VIDEO].

That was Taylor’s 11th homer of the season, but first as a Cub. And that ball was crushed! [VIDEO]

Nico Hoerner then went yard, back-to-back [VIDEO].

The Cubs were not done scoring in the first off Kyle Harrison, either. Michael Busch followed that homer with a double and scored on this single by Carson Kelly [VIDEO].

The Cubs put together another scoreless inning in the second, thanks in part to this strikeout/throw out double play [VIDEO].

Nice swipe tag by Nico.

Two more Cubs runs crossed the plate in the second on a single by Suzuki and this homer by Bregman [VIDEO].

Holmes kept mowing down Brewers hitters, three by strikeout in the fourth, and then the Cubs put together another big inning in the bottom of the fourth. With one out, Suzuki homered, the Cubs’ fourth of the game [VIDEO].

Bregman followed with his second homer of the game [VIDEO].

The Cubs have now gone back-to-back with homers twice in this game. More on that from BCB’s JohnW53:

The homers by Taylor and Hoerner, then by Suzuki and Bregman were the seventh and eighth times the Cubs have gone back-to-back this season. They did it 10 times in 2025 and 2024, 20 in 2023.

Tonight’s were their 413th and 414th set of consecutive homers in the regular season since 1876 and the 394th and 395th since 1901. They have gone back-to-back-to-back 11 other times.

Again the Cubs were not done in the inning. Taylor singled and Hoerner walked. One out later, Harrison was done for the evening, replaced by Chad Patrick.

Patrick’s first eight pitches were out of the strike zone, resulting in a walk to Kelly that loaded the bases and this RBI walk by Miguel Amaya [VIDEO].

So it’s 9-0 going to the fifth, and again Holmes set down the Brewers in that inning and the sixth without incident. Holmes left after six, having allowed five hits and two walks. His eight strikeouts matched his season high [VIDEO].

It’s still a bit early to make this determination, but based on what I’ve seen so far, I would have no issue sending Holmes to the mound for Game 1 of a postseason series.

Ryan Rolison relieved Holmes and served up a two-run homer to Cooper Pratt, somewhat forgivable in a 9-0 game.

It went 9-2 into the bottom of the seventn, and Kelly led off the inning with a home run of DL Hall [VIDEO].

That gave the Cubs an eight-run lead and, with the game in the seventh, put it into position-player pitcher territory. The Brewers obliged by sending Vaughn to the mound, and he threw a collection of pitches labeled “eephus” and “knuckleball” on the Wrigley video boards. “Eephus”? Sure. “Knuckleball”? Not intentionally, I don’t think.

The Cubs took advantage. Vaughn hit Amaya with his first “knuckleball,” and Matt Shaw put two runs on the board with this homer [VIDEO].

That ball did not reach Waveland — it landed on the back concourse of the bleachers maybe 20 feet from me. It’s now 12-2. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki followed with singles, but Bregman hit into a double play, with PCA taking third. He scored on this single by Taylor [VIDEO].

Colin Rea entered in the eighth to mop things up. He allowed a run in that inning, but the Cubs put together their final home-run show in the bottom of the frame. Amaya led off with a single and Shaw walked.

Michael Conforto, who had entered the game in the top of the inning, smashed a three-run homer [VIDEO].

If you’re keeping track:

Michael Conforto: .235/.325/.479, 13 HR in 213 AB, 0.7 bWAR
Kyle Tucker: .228/.326/.357, 11 HR in 456 AB, -0.1 bWAR

Petty? Yes. Fun? Also yes.

One out later, Bregman hit his third home run, setting the team record [VIDEO].

More on the Cubs’ nine-homer evening from John:

The Cubs’ nine home runs break the team record they set against the Cardinals on July 4 of last year, then matched against the Padres on July 1 of this year.

The nine homers ties the National League record, by the Reds, in a 22-3 win at Philadelphia on Sept. 4, 1999.

The Blue Jays hit 10 in an 18-3 win at home over the Orioles on Sept. 14, 1987. The Yankees hit nine twice last season, in a 20-9 rout of the Brewers on March 29 and a 13-3 win over the Rays on Aug. 19.
…
Six were the most the Cubs had hit in their 463 previous regular-season games against the Brewers, both at Wrigley Field, in a 15-12 slugfest on Sept. 12, 1998, and a 9-1 win on June 24, 2003. This was their 380th game vs. the Brewers since then. They had hit five twice, at Milwaukee in 2010 and at home on Aug. 13, 2015.

Rea wrapped up the evening with a 1-2-3 ninth. Here’s the final out [VIDEO].

Here are Bregman’s postgame remarks [VIDEO].

A note about Bregman’s three-homer game:

And here are postgame comments from Craig Counsell [VIDEO].

Counsell’s remarks about Harrison are important. Harrison’s been one of the best pitchers in the league this year and the Cubs made him “uncomfortable” early and continued throughout — the worst game of Harrison’s career.

Does this carry forward to the next game? Well, of course, baseball doesn’t work that way, you start 0-0 the next day with two different pitchers. But I can’t help thinking that the Cubs were not intimidated by the Brewers, who had won nine of 13 coming into this game. And the Cubs have been pouring on runs recently, never mind that many of them have been off position players. The Cubs’ 742 runs now lead MLB by 16, and that’s 5.38 runs per game, a pace for 871 runs, which would be the first time any Cubs team had scored that many since 1930.

This is also the fourth time this year the Cubs have scored at least 17 runs in a game (and third time in their last eight games!). They haven’t done that since 1936, when they did it five times. The last (and only) time with more? 1930, which was a wacky offensive season when the entire NL hit .303.

Also: Who would have thought that Cubs hitters would pound out nine home runs in a game and have NONE of them hit by Pete Crow-Armstrong? That just shows how many good hitters this team has. The nine home runs also give them the MLB lead in that category with 196, four more than the Nationals. One more note on this game from John:

The Cubs’ 14-run margin of victory tied for their largest ever against the Brewers.

They beat them by 19-5 at home on April 30, 2008. In that game, the Cubs made 17 hits, three fewer than last night, and hit only two home runs, vs. nine last night.

The Cubs had won by 13 runs three times: 16-3 in 2001, 17-4 in 2002 and 15-2 in 2021. All of those games were at Wrigley Field.

Even more on all the home runs hit by the Cubs in August (Bluesky link):

Another (Bluesky link):

And another (Bluesky link):

Postseason race note: The Phillies also won Monday so the Cubs remain tied with them for the top wild card spot.

The Cubs will go for two in a row over the Brewers Tuesday evening at Wrigley Field. Matthew Boyd will start for the Cubs and Robert Gasser goes for Milwaukee. Game time is again 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network. There will also be a national broadcast on TBS (outside the Cubs and Brewers market territories).

With the Minor League Baseball season approaching its end as the calendar gets set to flip to September, fans, coaches, and analysts alike are beginning to fully evaluate the 2026 campaigns of prospects around the league.

While there still are games to be played, the Washington Nationals, as of August 31st, have officially released their MiLB system-wide awards. Highly touted prospects like Seaver King (Hitter of the Year) and Eli Willits (Baserunner of the Year) took home awards, but arguably the most impressive recipient was the Pitcher of the Year, 19-year-old right hander Miguel Sime Jr..

It wasn’t much of a surprise to see the hard-throwing righty receive the honor, but it does present a fantastic chance to take a step back and truly admire the development Sime Jr. has had since joining the organization. 2026 was his first professional season, and he’s already done enough to warrant a considerable jump in the Nats’ prospect rankings.

The stats that immediately pop off the page for Sime Jr. are his Earned Run Average, which sits at 2.99 through 23 starts, and his whopping 130 punchouts across just 72.1 innings, a staggering mark of 16.18 per 9 innings, which leads all MiLB arms.

He’s only become more effective since being promoted to High-A, sporting an ERA in the low-2.00s through 13 starts on the back of his triple-digit velocity and devastating off-speed offerings. Walks have remained a large knack on his prospect profile, but the results he’s managed to maintain have been nothing short of outright dominant.

The righty has been especially lethal as of late, allowing just 6 earned runs to score across 28.2 innings since the start of July. His most recent outing was arguably the best he’s looked all year, surrendering only 1 unearned run over 4.0 innings, giving up just 1 hit and punching out 6 batters to just 2 free passes.

A potential move to Double-A could be possible before the season officially concludes, but Washington might opt to continue his development in A+ until he shows more improvement in his command. Sime Jr. will have to refine some of his secondary pitches and take strides with his ability to keep the ball in the zone if he wants to remain a starter long-term, but at just 19, the upside is absolutely tantalizing.

Seeing Sime Jr. in a Nationals jersey is a reality that likely sits multiple seasons away, but his 2026 performance has already put him miles ahead of where many scouts believed his timeline to be at this point in time. Washington is putting together an impressive stable of arms in their minor league ranks, and he could very quickly find himself right in that mix if he keeps this up.

Today marks the first day of September, or in baseball terms, the day MLB rosters expand from 26 to 28 players. Each team will be allowed to add one pitcher and one hitter to their active roster as reinforcements for the final stretch run of the regular season. 

The Phillies will begin September in pretty good shape. They entered play yesterday tied with the Chicago Cubs for the first Wild Card spot in the National League while sitting with a 4.5 game cushion for a spot in the postseason. The NL East division title is not completely out of the picture either, as the Phillies sit five games back of the Braves with seven still to play against Atlanta. But in lieu of chasing down the Braves, holding the top Wild Card spot will be crucial, as it guarantees the three-game series will be held at Citizens Bank Park. 

It will be something to worth monitoring what the Phillies do with these two extra roster spots. The first players up will almost a certainly be depth players. For the pitching side, Kyle Backhus, Max Lazar, and Alan Rangel figure to be the favorites to take the spot. On the hitting side, it will very likely be a returning from the IL Rafael Marchán. If he is not deemed ready or if the team opts to not carry three catchers, Gabriel Rincones Jr., Otto Kemp, Felix Reyes, or one of the newly acquired Kameron Misner or Colby Thomas figure to get the nod. 

These initial call ups likely won’t be exciting, but perhaps things get more interesting later in September. With the minor league season wrapping up, perhaps the idea of top pitching prospect Gage Wood becoming an addition to the bullpen grows in possibility. It would also seem that newly signed Nestor Cortes has a spot earmarked for him when he is deemed ready considering he was signed to an MLB deal. Those decisions are likely still at least a week away, but they hold some interesting possibilities. 

So, who will be the Phillies September call-ups? Who do you think should be? Will there be some possible surprises a little later in the month?

Amid the chaos of the 2026 Detroit Tigers season, we’ve also gotten a strong dose of the future. Kevin McGonigle is now the man in that dugout, and Max Clark is off to a nice start despite his youth. Eduardo Valencia, Ben Malgeri, and Brett Callahan have all shown some good things. The rookies are now occupying half the lineup most days, but the one who came up first during the season and has gotten the longest look is infielder Hao-Yu Lee. Has he done enough to lock up a job in 2027?

The 23-year-old Lee has gotten a much more extensive look than any rookie other than Kevin McGonigle this season, appearing in 90 games in two separate call-ups, and amassing 258 plate appearances. His initial call-up came back on April 17 and lasted until he was optioned back to Triple-A Toledo on June 2. He struggled in that first look at the Show, but less than two weeks later he was back in Detroit as Gleyber Torres went back on the injured list for his oblique injuries.

In that first tour with the Tigers, things were not going well. Of course, he’s a 23-year-old rookie and a solid prospect but far from a blue-chip, top 100 type, so some struggles trying to settle in were to be expected. Lee hit just .205 with a little power, but a 27.6 percent strikeout rate and a very low 4.6 percent walk rate for a 59 wRC+ (100 wRC+ is average if you’re not familiar).

That return to the minors seemed to allow him to take a breath, get back to a better approach at the plate, and apply some of what he’d learned. When he got back to Detroit in mid-June, we saw a much more consistent and confident hitter in the batter’s box. Since that point, Lee has hit .301 with an .802 OPS and a wRC+ of 122. His strikeout rate dropped to 19.3 percent and his walk rate rose to 7.3 percent, much more in line with his work in the minor leagues. Lee’s mix of power, plate discipline, and intensity have all been on display as he rarely gives at at-bat away and has started using the whole field more like he did in the minors.

For the season, Lee is now exactly at 100 wRC+, but the trend has been decidedly positive. The somewhat heavily left-handed hitting Tigers have seen Lee combine with Dillon Dingler and Spencer Torkelson to give them a lot better balance in their lineup, despite the fact that those two have slumped badly in recent weeks.

Based on his work since returning to the Tigers, they have a pretty good young hitter here. He hasn’t quite tapped into his plus raw power as much as we hope to see in the future, but even with seven home runs in essentially a half season of major league plate appearances, Lee has produced roughly average power and again, he’s trending much better since getting demoted in early June for a two week reset.

Based on the bat, Lee feels like a lock to be on the 2027 Opening Day roster. Certainly we’ll have to see how he finishes in September, and he’ll have to prove himself a bit again in spring training next year, assuming we get much of a Grapefruit League calendar after the lockout ends, but Lee does a lot of things well at the plate. He can hit behind a runner on first, he’ll pull balls down the line to left, and with 112+ mph in his bat, the power potential is plentiful if he can elevate a few more balls to the pull side. It’s nice to have a young, right-handed hitter with as balanced a spray chart as Lee does this season. He absolutely is using the whole field, and that can be a minor key to performing well with runners on base and being held there by a defender, opening up holes in the infield defense.

To improve further, Lee probably just needs to trim his chase rate. He didn’t chase that much in the minors, but at the major league level his outside the zone swing rate is up over 30 percent after posting a 22 percent mark at the Triple-A level. Hopefully this is just a matter of experience, as like all his numbers this season, he’s markedly improved across the board in his second stint with the Tigers. The final tantalizing piece of his offensive profile is that Lee has been much better against right-handed pitching than against southpaws. He crushed lefties in the minors, so it may just take time for things to balance out a little more, but the fact that he’s done so well as a right-handed hitter against right-handed pitching bodes well for his playing time and potential to become an everyday staple of the Tigers’ lineup.

The one big flaw here is obviously his defense. Lee is quite mobile for a barrel chested guy with pretty average speed, and he has solid arm strength as well. The problem is his glove, as way too many clear errors have been committed by him this season. In fairness, the Tigers haven’t made it too easy on him as he’s played a mix of second and third base. Lee has always had a tendency to be a little stone-handed particularly when he’s on the move, but it’s been worse in the major leagues so far.

He’s played the equivalent of roughly 55 games at second base, and 22 at third base. At second, he’s a -5 in Outs Above Average, and a -3 in Defensive Runs Saved. At third base, those marks are -4 and -1, respectively. He clearly has the ability to play close to average defense, but these big mistakes have got to be reduced and no doubt Lee is well aware of that fact.

Cleaning up his actions with the glove is the major task for Hao-Yu Lee this offseason. He’s shown enough to be pretty excited about his bat and his general major league future, but to play everyday and become a mainstay in the lineup, A.J. Hinch has to be able to trust him not to flub a play in a big spot, and right now it’s still a work in progress.

If we take a positive tack here, Lee’s intensity and work ethic are well known. We’ve mentioned this in his scouting reports each of the past three years since he came over from Philadelphia in a 2023 deadline deal that sent Michael Lorenzen to the Fightin’ Dombrowskis. He is a driven, high energy player and that extends to his practice as well. Some of his mistakes this season may simply be a result of an amped up young player trying to do too much in his first look at the big leagues.

Still, he’s clearly not going to be a plus defender either. As young as he is, by age 21 or 22 it’s generally pretty obvious if an infielder has good hands or not, and Lee just doesn’t have the high end glovework that could take him to plus defensive territory. That’s fine. He’s just got to put the work in this offseason and find ways to trim some of those big mistakes.

If Lee can just make some modest improvements in that regard, the Tigers are going to love what they have in his game. The bat is already fairly exciting. Getting to the point where they can play him at second and third without fear would make the whole proposition that much better.

Hao-Yu Lee has been a lot of fun to watch this season. He’s battled through the early rookie struggles, and appears to have come out the other side in a much better place, with much more consistent production over the last two and a half months. The confidence and intensity he plays with should serve him well, and he’s rarely looked intimidated or overwhelmed. He’s an easy player to root for with a team first attitude and ferocious drive to succeed. We jokingly had him ranked as “guy likely to be first out of the dugout if a fight breaks out,” last offseason, and that’s an attribute that endears a player to his teammates as well as to the fans.

The trade for Lee was already a nice win when it happened. Now he’s making good at the major league level. If he can clean up his defense and build back toward the better plate discipline he had at the Triple-A level, the Tigers will have a good everyday player here.

Possibly one of the weirdest positive things about a member of the 2026 Atlanta Braves is that Dylan Lee is second among the team’s pitchers in fWAR, with 2.0. Among all pitchers, he is 71st with that mark. To be clear: every team has five-plus starters and a gaggle of relievers, and Lee is in the top 75 in production. Among relievers, he’s in the top ten, but really smack dab in a big cluster that runs from third to 20th.

Lee was dominant in terms of both peripherals and results-while-he-was-pitching for much of the season. From the start of the season through August 16, he had a WPA over 2.5 and had recorded 26 shutdowns to just five meltdowns. In fact, the tail end of that stretch was 13 consecutive appearances with positive WPA, which accounted for six of his 26 shutdowns. His pitching line was video game numbers-y: a 46 ERA-, 48 FIP-, and a 69 xFIP-. His HR/FB was 5.0 percent (three homers all year, two in the same series against the Orioles). His strand rate was above league average, his BABIP-against was an absurd 2.05, though he was also managing contact to a supreme degree (2.28 xERA, yet still higher than his actual ERA in that span). Basically, he was dominant, but also aided by stuff he couldn’t control amid that dominance. Thanks, universe!

And then, as they do sometimes but not always, things changed for Lee on a dime. Lee has made seven appearances since August 16. He has been saddled with a meltdown in five of them (and shutdowns in the other two). He hasn’t allowed a homer in any, but…

• His FIP has been bad in two of the seven;
• His xFIP has been bad in four of the seven;
• His BABIP-against has been absurdly high in five of the seven;
• His xERA/xwOBA-against has been bad in three of the seven (the most recent three); and
• His aggregate line for these seven outings is 279/64/117.

The lack of homers hasn’t stopped him from accruing value. His pitching has been pretty bad, but it’s really split between his usual dominance in three outings (not in a row) and issues in four. Yes, two of his top four worst outings by xFIP have come in his bad stretch, but nothing else in his top (bottom?) ten. As you can probably tell by the 279 ERA-, this kind of looks like the universe getting back at him for the hubris and good fortune he enjoyed for pretty much the rest of the season. The only thing that hasn’t stung him in these seven outings has been his HR/FB.

Is this an effect of fatigue? It doesn’t quite look like it. His velocity hasn’t really budged, and is actually up slightly over earlier outings. He’s also gotten more chase. The issue has been fewer missed bats, especially on pitches outside the zone.

The reasons for this are fairly obvious once you look at some pitch plots. For the season, Lee has been relatively adept at spotting his slider on the lower glove-side edge. It sometimes drifts lower (below the zone) and sometimes higher (towards the middle of the plate), but he executes the pitcher’s pitch version of it often enough. Since August 19, it’s become more of a grab bag as to whether it ends up over the plate, too far below the zone, or in an intended spot. More minutely, it looks like it’s just missing below the zone. There’s less of a story with the four-seamer — maybe some are drifting below where he usually places them towards the upper part of the zone but nothing blatant. There’s no huge smoking gun as to why batters are making a bunch more contact on pitches outside the zone rather than missing them as they have. Maybe that’s the mechanism for the universe to get back at Lee…

…but honestly, it’s probably as simple as the fact that his first-pitch strike rate has fallen from about two-thirds before this stretch, to 50 percent in this stretch. That seems a more glaring change than anything else in this seven-outing stretch.

I don’t think there’s any real reason for concern, but I still somewhat expect Lee to catch an Injured List stint, even if there’s little suggest any kind of injury woe leading to performance issues. With a slightly-expanded September bullpen, the re-availability of Ray Kerr and the ability to shunt Brent Suter towards higher leverage, and the Braves’ usual foot-not-really-on-the-pedal approach to pitching management, that’s a way to give him a reset, even if that reset is just from the unrelenting pressure of the universe. If they don’t, though, I’d be surprised to see this rough stretch keep up, unless Lee somehow gets it in his head that he needs to do things differently in September after four-and-a-half months of near-unbridled success.