Category: MLB

The Mets have been a different team since the All-Star Game and are playing a more fun, exciting brand of baseball since the Aug. 3 trade deadline. They are 26-21 since the unofficial second half began, and 19-12 since having their sell-off at the deadline. 

Looking back a bit further, New York has a 31-28 record since June 30, meaning the club has had a two month-plus stretch that arguably shows what happened earlier this season (including a 12-game losing streak that helped derail their hopes) was likely an aberration.

But aberration or not, the Mets could not find enough success over the first three months of the year to save a season that began with World Series expectations. Blame for that lies mainly at the feet of president of baseball operations David Stearns, who oversaw an offseason of change that might have just been too much. 

With the Mets excelling lately, a cynic could fairly say that the pressure is off. While that's true, it can be argued that lots of this turnaround has to do with players getting comfortable, gaining experience, and getting healthy, which could prove huge for a team that will likely return a large chunk of this core in 2027.

To highlight just a few...

Bo Bichette, who seemed a bit overwhelmed early as he adjusted to a new team and a huge market, has been himself since May 18. In 96 games since then, he is slashing .293/.340/.467 (.807 OPS) with 14 homers. While Bichette (who has opt-outs after this season and next) has yet to make a decision about his future, it would be relatively surprising if he opted out of a deal that will pay him $42 million in 2027.

After struggling for the first month as he acclimated to the majors, rookieCarson Benge (whose OPS entering play on April 22 was .416) has been a force. At the plate, he has a .798 OPS over his last 117 games. In right field, he's made highlight-reel plays routinely and displayed a cannon of an arm that rates at the very top of the sport.

Francisco Lindor missed two months due to a calf injury and has looked much more like himself since being back.

Christian Scottreturned from Tommy John surgery and cemented his rotation spot starting on May 1, helping to stabilize the starting staff along the way.

In a universe where Bichette and Benge didn't struggle so much out of the gate and Lindor didn't go down, this season likely would've gone very differently. But in this universe, the Mets are playing out the string.

Fortunately for them, this feels like a team that is a few tweaks (albeit relatively major ones) away from being right back in contention.

With that as a backdrop, here are five big storylines to watch down the stretch that could have an impact on how the roster is assembled ahead of 2027...

Jonah Tong and Zac Thornton

Following an up-and-down season in Triple-A Syracuse where he worked to implement a cutter, Tong impressed during his first big league start of the year, tossing five innings on Sept. 7 against the Marlins in Miami.

While Tong allowed four runs (all in the second inning), he showed the kind of composure he lacked in his big league stint in 2025. And his stuff (primarily his fastball-changeup combo) also played up, as Tong struck out seven and generated 16 swings and misses.

It's hard to envision a scenario where Tong does enough down the stretch to be viewed as a rotation member out of the gate in 2027, but he still possesses plenty of upside.

As far as Thornton, he has been excelling despite not-so-great metrics, showing moxie and often pitching relatively deep into games.

Thornton, who could be valuable rotation depth in 2027, has posted a 3.53 ERA in 12 starts this season while completing six innings or more six times.

How will Sean Manaea's Jekyll and Hyde season end?

It's been a tale of three seasons for Manaea.

He was relegated to the bullpen from Opening Day through June 7, as he struggled with reduced velocity following a 2025 season where he had an elbow issue.

From June 13 to Aug. 9, Manaea -- with his fastball sitting in the low-90s -- posted a 3.58 ERA in 61.2 innings over 11 starts, including a pair of largely dominant seven-inning performances.

Over his last four starts, Manaea has gotten hit hard, posting a 7.23 ERA (6.60 FIP) in 23.2 innings while surrendering 30 hits (including seven home runs).

A few weeks ago, it seemed safe to put Manaea's name down in ink when it came to a spot in the 2027 rotation. Now, it can be argued that it's in pencil.

Who are the keepers in the remade bullpen?

Somewhat implausibly, the Mets traded four stalwarts of their 2026 bullpen at the deadline (Luke Weaver, Huascar Brazoban, Brooks Raley, and A.J. Minter) and found themselves with a relief corps that's arguably better.

With Devin Williams on the IL, Kodai Senga assumed the closer role shortly after being turned into a high-leverage reliever. Using primarily his four-seam fastball and ghost fork, Senga has been terrific since becoming a short reliever, posting a 1.46 ERA in 12.1 innings while fanning 13.

The Mets haven't yet decided what Senga's role will be in 2027, and it bears watching when it comes to whether his body can handle the rigors of regular relief use.

Rookie left-hander Nate Lavender -- whose elite extension leads to his pitches kind of jumping at hitters -- has yet to allow a run over his first 13.0 big league innings, posting a 0.61 WHIP along the way. Barring a surprise, he has all but secured a spot in the 2027 'pen.

Daniel Duarte has also opened eyes, with a 2.00 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 27.0 innings while allowing only 14 hits. Duarte, like Lavender, missed most of the last two seasons due to elbow surgery.

The Marcus Semien situation

Since returning from a hip injury on July 18 (a malady he played through for a while and probably hampered his production), Semien has been a bit better.

At the dish, he has posted a .676 OPS (it was .613 when he landed on the IL).

In the field, Semien has been smoother and rangier, displaying the kind of defensive prowess that won him a Gold Glove with the Rangers in 2025.

If Semien can simply be a league average hitter, keeping him in the lineup regularly in 2027 would be justifiable. If not, the arrival of a prospect like Jefferson Rojas or Mitch Voit could happen quickly, potentially turning Semien into a very expensive bench player.

Who's on first?

Given how their roster is constituted, it's possible the only way the Mets can seriously improve their offense for next season is by adding a first baseman and/or designated hitter.

To that end, how sold are they on Jared Young as a potential long end of a first base platoon?

Young has posted a .796 against right-handers this season, but just .606 against lefties.

Mark Vientos, whose return from injury was preceded by some relatively pointed comments by interim manager Andy Green, has slugged two homers in five games since returning. But his defense at first base has remained an issue.

Then there's Brett Baty, whose offensive production has ticked up since Aug. 21, with him posting a 1.101 OPS in 36 plate appearances over his last 14 games.

Dana Brown is no longer the general manager of the Houston Astros, and as we begin dissecting what he did and didn’t do, during his tenure, one glaring failure stands above the rest.

The Astros started this season with a major problem in the outfield.

Now, with less than a month remaining in the regular season, they still have the exact same problem.

That’s difficult to comprehend.

There will be plenty of debate over how much authority Brown actually had during his time in Houston. Was Jim Crane heavily involved in personnel decisions? How much influence did Jeff Bagwell and others within Crane’s inner circle have? Was Brown empowered to construct the roster the way he wanted, or was he operating with one hand tied behind his back?

Those are legitimate questions.

But regardless of who deserves what percentage of the blame, the final product speaks for itself.

The Astros needed outfield help before the season started. They needed it during the first half. They needed it approaching the trade deadline. They needed it after the deadline.

And they still need it today.

At some point, somebody has to be held accountable for failing to solve such an obvious problem.

The Astros had months to find a legitimate corner outfielder capable of providing consistent major league production. Instead, we’ve watched a revolving door of players come through Houston as the organization repeatedly hoped it could resurrect someone’s career or somehow catch lightning in a bottle.

It hasn’t worked.

Jorge Barrosa is simply the latest player to get his opportunity and try to provide the production Houston has been searching for all season.

Before him came Nelson Velázquez, whose struggles have been especially noticeable defensively and who hasn’t provided enough offense to compensate for those shortcomings.

Taylor Trammell and LaMonte Wade Jr. have had their moments.

But that’s the problem.

They’ve been moments.

There haven’t been enough of them to justify believing these are everyday outfielders for a team with legitimate postseason aspirations.

For an organization that spent most of the last decade setting the standard for roster construction in Major League Baseball, it’s borderline embarrassing.

How many reclamation projects can one contender run onto the field before admitting the plan hasn’t worked?

This isn’t about expecting an All-Star at every position. Championship teams always have role players, inexpensive contributors and veterans trying to recapture previous success.

But there is a difference between supplementing your roster with those players and depending on them.

The Astros have spent an entire season depending on them.

And somehow, Joe Espada has continued to find ways to win.

That’s another element of this discussion that shouldn’t be ignored as Crane evaluates Espada’s future after the season.

If we’re going to criticize the manager when things go wrong, then we also have to acknowledge what he’s accomplished with the roster he was given.

Espada has kept this team in contention despite dealing with injuries, inconsistent pitching and one of the least productive offensive outfields in baseball.

He’s had to mix and match lineups constantly, searching for combinations that could provide enough offense to survive.

At times, that has even meant putting Yordan Alvarez in left field more frequently than anyone would probably prefer simply because the Astros desperately needed to find another way to construct a productive lineup.

Think about that.

Your American League MVP candidate has been asked to spend additional time in the outfield partly because the organization couldn’t adequately solve a roster problem that was obvious before Opening Day.

That’s not on Joe Espada.

That’s roster construction.

And that’s why, as the Astros evaluate everything following Brown’s departure, the organization needs to look beyond one person.

If Brown didn’t have complete control over baseball decisions, then Crane has to evaluate the entire process that produced this roster.

Who identified these players?

Who decided they were good enough?

Who chose not to pursue better alternatives?

Who believed the Astros could get through an entire season patching together the outfield with waiver claims, reclamation projects and players other organizations were willing to move on from?

Those questions matter because simply changing the general manager accomplishes very little if the decision-making structure surrounding him remains exactly the same.

Now the Astros enter one of the most important weeks of their season.

Their playoff fate could very well be determined by what happens over the coming days, and once again we’ll look toward the outfield and wonder whether anybody besides Yordan Alvarez can provide consistent offensive production.

Maybe Barrosa provides a spark.

Maybe one of the other options suddenly gets hot.

Maybe Houston finds another unlikely hero just when it needs one most.

But after an entire season of waiting for that to happen, “maybe” shouldn’t have been the plan.

Dana Brown is gone.

The Astros’ outfield problem isn’t.

And until Houston figures out why such an obvious weakness was allowed to remain unresolved for an entire season, changing the name on the general manager’s office won’t necessarily fix the bigger problem.

As the Astros begin this critical week, keep an eye on the outfield.

It may ultimately determine whether this remarkable comeback season ends in October—or ends wondering what might have been if the organization had simply fixed the problem everyone could see from the very beginning. What do you think Astros fans, let me know in the comments below.

1901
At South Side Park, the first-place White Sox treated 19,800 fans — the largest crowd the American League (in its first year as a major league) sees all season — to a thriller. In the bottom of the ninth, down 3-2 to the Boston Americans, catcher Billy Sullivan and pinch-hitter Nixey Callahan singled, and Callahan stole second to put ducks on the pond. Facing Cy Young, who was aiming to complete the game and take home his 29th win on the season, center fielder Billy Hoy singled in both runs, for a walk-off win.

1960
You have to respect the man’s beliefs, at least. Veteran pitcher Al Worthington was acquired from the Red Sox on August 29 to help with the stretch run of the season, but on this day he left the White Sox, stating that he couldn’t play for a team that cheated.

Worthington, a devoutly religious person, had heard rumors the Sox were stealing signs via a flashing light in the scoreboard relaying the upcoming pitch to hitters, and when manager Al Lopez wouldn’t confirm or deny the charge Worthington left. He remained in the White Sox organization, playing in the minor leagues the next two years before the Reds selected him in the Rule 5 draft in November 1962.

From 1964-69 Worthington became one of the best relief pitchers in the American League, saving 102 games for the Minnesota Twins and winning 42 more.

In his short stint with the White So,x he appeared in four games with a 1-1 record and a 3.38 ERA.  

1962
White Sox pitcher and future Hall-of-Famer Early Wynn won his 299th career game, beating Washington, 6-3. Wynn threw a complete game, scattering nine hits with three strikeouts. It would be his last win of the the season, leaving him a win short of the 300-win milestone.

He would get a spring training invite from Chicago for 1963, but was cut. But Cleveland, the team Wynn had pitched for earlier in his career, picked him up and he got his coveted 300th win on July 13, winning 7-4 at Kansas City.

That 300th was Wynn’s last win in the major leagues.

1984
With 30,511 fans showing up to see the White Sox lose, 6-5, to the Angels, the club pushed past two million fans for the second straight year. In 1983, the White Sox drew 2,132,821 fans, marking this as the first time in Chicago city history a club had back-to-back years of more than two million in attendance.

This game pushed the White Sox to 2,024,093 in a season that would (barely) top the previous season, ending at 2,136,988 through the turnstiles.

1993
Breakout hurler Jason Bere tied a 73-year-old White Sox rookie record, with 13 strikeouts over eight innings of an 8-1 win against Boston. Bere tied righthander Frank Lange, who had a fairly brief run with the White Sox in the early 1910s.

Also on this day, pitcher Doug Lindsey arrived in Chicago from the Phillies as the player to be named later for Donn Pall (sent to Philly on September 1).

2022
White Sox third baseman Yoán Moncada did something that had never been done before in the American League, as part of a 14-2 rout by the club over the A’s in Oakland.

Moncada went 5-for-5 with five RBIs for the second time in the season, which hadn’t happened in the AL since RBIs became an official statistic in 1920. Moncada had two home runs and a double among his hits, and finished the game with 12 total bases.

He did it the first time on June 15 against the Tigers, when he went 5-for-6 with five RBIs.

Also in this game came back-to-back home runs leading the contest off by the White Sox. Elvis Andrus and Moncada both went deep off of J.P. Sears to start the rout.

For most teams, a historic collapse at the plate would be a devastating way to end a season. For the Pirates, it’s progress.

The Pirates posted a .768 OPS in the first half of 2026. Only the Dodgers had a better mark across the majors. Since the All-Star Break, however, the Pirates have a .651 OPS. Only the Angels have a worse mark. That 117-point drop amounts to a tOPS+ of 79 in the second half of the season, which is tied for the largest drop in OPS in Major League history, according to Baseball Reference.

Expectations were fairly low in Pittsburgh heading into 2026. FanGraphs projected the Pirates for a 78-win season; Baseball Prospectus projected them for 80. It seemed unlikely this would be another 100-loss atrocity like 2021 and 2022, but there was a sense the organization had stalled, with still some distance between them and .500.

The few bright spots that existed on the roster were mostly limited to the pitching staff, whether that be Paul Skenes or the other young hurlers looking for their Skenes-ian break. The outlook for the lineup, meanwhile, remained bleak. Spencer Horowitz was the only batter on the 2025 squad to post a wRC+ greater than 100, in what was the second worst lineup in the majors. And while some new additions were coming off decent years, the offseason was marked more by the batters they didn’t land than the ones they did. The Pirates as a team have posted just one above average season at the plate by wRC+ since the days of Barry Bonds. Offense just isn’t something that tends to exist in Pittsburgh.

Then the season started. And the Pirates hit. And they hit, and they hit, and they hit some more. They scored 153 runs in April — the third most runs they’ve scored in a month this century. That was only the beginning. They posted a 110 wRC+ in May and followed it up with a 118 wRC+ in June. They were swinging at strikes, working counts, drawing walks, and hitting the ball hard. Pretty much anything a team can do well at the plate, they were doing it.

Batting coach Matt Hague told reporters in April they want to be both consistent and dynamic at plate.

“They’re bringing [pitchers] into their zones,” Hague said of his batters. “Our messaging the first couple months, including Spring Training, has been getting our best swings off. A lot goes into that, but when we’re going well, that’s what’s happening.”

The Pirates surged into the All-Star break and finished the first half with a 110 wRC+. Their 516 runs scored was tied with the Nationals for most in the majors. It wouldn’t have been ridiculous to claim the league’s best offense belonged to Pittsburgh. We’d never seen anything like it in Ben Charington’s tenure as general manager:

Of course, the plot also shows what happened next. The offense vanished when the Pirates returned from the break. Their walk rate dropped, their strikeout rate exploded, and the power was nowhere to be found. They’ve scored the third fewest runs in the second half, and their 79 wRC+ ranks next to last behind only the Angels.

The most notable change comes from the absence of Konnor Griffin, who landed on the injured list just as he was getting hot. Griffin entered the season as the unanimous number one prospect in baseball. The Pirates seemed to agree, giving him a 9-year, $140 million extension before he made his debut. Griffin struggled initially after getting the call on April 3. That’s not surprising for a 19-year old, regardless of his prospect pedigree. But it was disheartening to see him hit .182/.247/.242 with a 30.1% strikeout rate over his first 20 days in the majors. Then in his first at bat on April 24 — his 20th birthday — Griffin hit his first Big League homer.

Griffin picked up two more hits and a stolen before the day was done. He picked up two more hits and another stolen base the next day as well. From there, he never looked back. Griffin hit .314/.368/.472 (129 wRC+) while stealing 16 of 17 bases in 40 games after turning 20, more than justifying his tip-top prospect status. 

Then the bad news: Griffin tore a ligament in his finger while diving for a ball in early July. He would miss two months, and only returned just last week. Not only was it a blow to Griffin’s development and his chances at Rookie of the Year, but Pirates shortstops posted a 60 wRC+ in his absence.

The Pirates also lost quite a bit when Ryan O’Hearn landed on the injured list in late July with a quadriceps strain. O’Hearn hadn’t necessarily recaptured his brilliance from the first half of 2025, when he posted a 136 wRC+ for the Orioles. But he’d been perfectly solid after signing a two-year deal over the offseason, slugging 17 home runs and extending the middle of the Pirates’ lineup. O’Hearn split time between a couple positions but took most of his reps in right field. Pirates right fielders have hit .172/.280/.279 (59 wRC+) in his absence.

Horowitz, often the only productive batter in Pittsburgh in 2025, has also seen his season derailed by injury. He’d been business as usual with a 132 wRC+ through June 24, putting together a third-straight season as one of the best platoon bats in the majors. But he landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain, then got hit in the head by a pitch on a rehab assignment and suffered a concussion. Horowitz finally returned on August 2, but has yet to get going, with just one extra base hit (a double) and a 13 wRC+.

Injuries don’t quite explain what’s happened to Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates veteran outfielder entered the year looking to bounce back from a poor (by his standards) showing in 2025. There was some talk his best days were behind him, now on the wrong side of 30. But bounce back doesn’t begin to describe Reynolds’ performance early in 2026. He was a top 20 hitter by wRC+ (141) at the All-Star Break, with a 14.7% walk rate and 47.3% hard hit rate. Not only had he alleviated concerns of age-related decline, this was maybe the best Reynolds had looked since 2021. Unfortunately, it didn’t last. He started striking out a ton after the break. And when he finally cut down on the whiffs in August, the power disappeared. I’m not sure there’s any specific culprit, other than the natural flow of a baseball season. And that very well may be the case, as Reynolds over the last few weeks is back to scorching the baseball. The results are starting to return.

Not everyone in Pittsburgh has suffered this second-half affliction. Oneil Cruz hasn’t missed a beat since returning from a broken hand that kept him out for two months. He’s having his best-ever season with a 124 wRC+, even if the 34.7% strikeout rate looks a bit ugly. Brandon Lowe has had some ups-and-downs in his first year in Pittsburgh, but he’s on something of a hot streak at the moment, and his 115 wRC+ is right at his career norm. There’s a variety of other prospects and utility players who have had good and bad stretches throughout the season, and not everyone fits into this surge-and-slump narrative.

The Pirates enter the final stretch of 2026 with an exactly average 100 wRC+. They’ve done it in an odd fashion, and it won’t feel great if their slump continues and winds up as the final note of the season. But there’s a real chance they could finish the year with a net-positive group of hitters for the first time since 2014 and the second time since 1991. That’s something.

The Pirates themselves will see this as a consolation prize, of course. They’re firmly out of the playoff picture and two games below .500. But looking ahead, there’s more to feel good about than there was at this time last year. Griffin was as good as advertised when healthy and already looks like one of the best young players in the game. Reynolds bounced back and could remain productive at the plate into his mid-30s. Cruz took an impressive step forward and is only just entering his prime years. That’s a solid core on its own, and the front office did well to supplement them with a competent mix of promotions, signings, and trades. 

To me, the collapse after the break reads more like a coincidence, with a few poorly timed injuries to key players, rather than a total erasure of their early excellence. I think they’re closer to that first half performance than the second going forward. That’s not to say I think the Pirates should expect to have the best offense in the majors in 2027. But they also don’t need to. They’re going to finish the year with a top 10 pitching staff, and they’ll be projected for a top 10 staff again next year. If they continue to pursue productive veterans batters, and continue to do well developing their prospects, they’ll have a well-rounded and competitive roster. Sure, the late slump makes this season feel like a missed opportunity. But that the Pirates were even in a position to collapse is something close to progress.

The Braves survived their first of two critical series against the Phillies, essentially, by winning two of four games on the road to keep their NL East lead at four games.

Before the Phillies return the favor with a three-game series in Atlanta this weekend, the Braves host the Tampa Bay Rays for a three-game series which begins Tuesday at 7:15 p.m. ET.

The Rays remain a true baseball anomaly, 23rd league-wide in payroll this season at $107.3 million, and yet once again positioned to make the playoffs.

Although Tampa Bay has less than half of the Braves’ payroll, it enters a half-game ahead of Atlanta in terms of record (85-58 to 85-59) and is essentially a playoff lock to make its sixth playoff appearance in the last eight years.

The Braves will give the ball to AJ Smith-Shawver (0-1, 7.13 ERA) for the series opener, hoping he can find the improved form that has evaded him since his delayed start to this season upon his return from Tommy John surgery.

After the right-hander had a 3.86 ERA in nine starts last season before sustaining the elbow injury, he has struggled this season.

That’s particularly been the case in his last three starts since returning from Gwinnett. He hasn’t lasted more than five innings in any of those starts, allowing a combined 12 runs on 16 hits over 13 1/3 innings (8.10 ERA).

Facing a Rays team which leads the majors in batting average (.260) but is 13th in slugging percentage (.403) will present an interesting test as Smith-Shawver’s time to prove his worth as a playoff roster inclusion dwindles.

He’s made one career start against the Rays last April, taking a no-decision after allowing two runs on six hits over five innings.

The Braves aren’t facing all of the heart of the Rays’ rotation in this series like they did against the Phillies, but there aren’t many holes in a Tampa rotation which ranks fourth in the majors in starting pitcher ERA (3.61).

Right-hander Freddy Peralta (7-11, 4.96), acquired from the New York Mets earlier this month ahead of the trade deadline, will start the series opener for the Rays.

Peralta, acquired last offseason from the Milwaukee Brewers, didn’t meet expectations with the Mets, posting a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts. That hasn’t exactly changed with Tampa, with a 4.86 ERA and 2-2 record in his first six starts with the Rays.

His WHIP, though, has dramatically improved with Tampa Bay, falling from 1.48 in New York to 1.02 with the Rays. A much better strikeout-to-walk ratio (27 to 6 compared to 113 to 48) has certainly played a role in that.

Peralta, who spent his entire career with the Brewers before this season, is 6-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 11 career appearances (10 starts) against the Braves. He faced Atlanta twice earlier this season when with the Mets, going 1-0 with two earned runs allowed over a combined 9 2/3 innings.

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It’s an AL West showdown tonight with the Seattle Mariners home favorites over the Texas Rangers ahead of the 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday, Sept. 8.

My top Rangers vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks are calling for plenty of runs during a Texas upset tonight. 

Who will win Rangers vs Mariners today: Rangers moneyline (45.5%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Seattle Mariners rank last in wOBA against left-handed pitchers. At 24th in the overall metric and 23rd in xwOBA over the past two weeks, I like taking a shot on the underdog Texas Rangers tonight.

Texas is fourth in wOBA and fifth in xwOBA while averaging 5.3 runs per game during the same stretch, after all.

Plus, Seattle righty Bryce Miller has been incredibly inconsistent, allowing three or more runs in seven of his past nine starts while posting an alarmingly high 4.70 xERA and 5.35 xFIP.

As a result, I like the Texas moneyline to 48.8%.

COVERS INTEL: Miller has negative pitch values on each of his five most-frequent offerings over his past nine starts.

Rangers vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55.6%)

Alongside the highlighted path to success for the Texas offense, Seattle will also chip in runs tonight.

Rangers lefty Cody Bradford missed all of the 2025 season, and he’s struggled to a 5.48 xERA and 5.16 xFIP across six starts since returning to the majors on Aug. 5. Opposing hitters have teed off for a high-end .380 wOBA and 18.0% blast-contact rate against him, too.

Finally, both teams have trended to the Over, so I recommend this pick up to 57.4%.

Rangers vs Mariners home run prediction: Joc Pederson (16.7%)

With Miller allowing a massive .279 ISO and 2.33 HR/9 to left-handed hitters over his highlighted nine-start run, Rangers slugger Joc Pederson jumps out as a home-run target tonight, considering he's hit 24 bombs against righties with a .248 ISO.

Rangers vs Mariners weather

The forecast calls for clear, sunny skies with game-time temperatures in the mid-60s and falling slightly into the high 50s by the late innings, and a moderate 5-8 mph wind will blow in from left-center field at T-Mobile Park tonight.

Rangers vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Rangers 46.5% | Mariners 57.4%
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (63.6%) | Mariners -1.5 (40%)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (52.4%) | Under 8 (52.5%)

Rangers vs Mariners trend

The Rangers have hit the Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 54% ROI), and the Mariners have played to the Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners.

How to watch Rangers vs Mariners and game info

Rangers vs Mariners latest injuries

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Emmet Sheehan had such a successful first start back with the Dodgers that he earned at least another, after striking out 10 Cincinnati Reds in Monday night’s win at Dodger Stadium, his first start in the majors in five weeks.

“There was a lot of stuff going down, and try to figure stuff out in a little less stressful place, which was nice,” Sheehan told reporters Monday night, as shown on SportsNet LA. “Just getting my delivery locked in, and really just making sure I’m hammering it during the week so when I go out there I can just go out and compete, which I feel I was doing tonight.

Sheehan struggled trying to find consistency in the first four months of the season, with his ERA (5.29) not matching his xERA (3.99) thanks in part to a team-leading 20 home runs at the time through his first 20 starts. He was optioned to Triple-A after a three-homer loss to the Boston Red Sox on August 2.

He did not allow a home run to any of the 69 batters he faced with Oklahoma City in August. After allowing two runs in a planned brief outing in his first game back in Triple-A, Sheehan reeled off three straight excellent starts, totaling 24 strikeouts and only one run allowed in 17 1/3 innings, which earned Sheehan pitcher of the week and pitcher of the month awards in the Pacific Coast League.

Sheehan allowed a home run to Elly De La Cruz on Monday but almost nothing else, permitting only two more singles and a walk, with 10 strikeouts among his 21 batters faced. Sheehan will start again on Sunday against the Marlins in Miami.

Sheehan got the win on Monday, and replaced Bobby Miller, who earned the win on Sunday night with three innings of bulk relief in his first major league action since 2025. Miller was activated Saturday off the injured list after missing the first five months with shoulder and back maladies.

Barring another injury, this keeps Miller in the minors until potentially the final week of the regular season, depending on what the Dodgers might need to fill in as they both close out the regular season and prepare for the postseason. The Dodgers in the final weekend of 2025 called up Andrew Heaneyand Landon Knack, for instance.

I have long thought the the acquisition of a superstar player is among the most exciting experiences a fan can have. In a single move, teams can change, and a franchise’s trajectory can shift significantly, perhaps for years t0 come. Today’s entry in our daily birthday series dives in on one of the more exciting such moves in recent memory for the Yankees.

Already an established ace, Gerrit Cole donned the pinstripes for the first time, and didn’t miss a beat. Although his tenure began in a shortened season, and he has missed some time due to injury, Cole has turned in a handful of elite seasons, and doesn’t seem to have lost a step as he progresses into his late-30s. A Yankee fan growing up, and now among the franchise’s finest performers on the mound, Gerrit Cole has become a staple in the Bronx.

Gerrit Cole
Born: September 8, 1990 (Newport Beach, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 2020-pres.

Growing up in California, and clearly developing into a stud on the mound, Cole was actually first drafted by the Yankees out of high school, late in the first round of the 2008 draft. Electing to play college ball at UCLA instead, Cole was drafted again in 2011, this time with the first overall pick, by the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The 6-foot-4 right-hander quickly ascended through the Pirates’ system, and was a top-10 prospect in baseball prior to his debut. After being drafted in 2011, Cole made his Major League debut about two years late, on June 11, 2013. His presence on the mound was immediately apparent, as he tossed over 100 innings across 19 starts in his rookie season to the tune of a solid 111 ERA+. As one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, Cole was already delivering, and that season would stand as a great precursor to the career ahead of him.

The righty would ultimately pitch five total seasons in Pittsburgh, which saw him go from solid to elite as he developed in the big leagues. The high point with the Buccos came in 2015, when he posted a 2.60 ERA in 208 innings, good for a fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting and his first All-Star selection.

In January of 2018, Cole’s days in the Steel City came to a close, when he was dealt to the Houston Astros for a slew of prospects. Although he had already been an established top-notch pitcher, he found a different gear in Houston.

He was excellent in 2018, tossing just over 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, with the added bonus of a skyrocketed strikeout rate as he was fanning more than 12 batters per nine innings. He made his second All-Star team, and was able to get his first taste of postseason ball since 2015.

Despite a good debut with the ‘Stros, he blew it out of the water in 2019. In that season, his 2.50 ERA led the league as he pitched a career-high 212.1 innings while amassing a whopping 326 strikeouts, the most by any pitcher in nearly two decades. In his final nine starts of that season, Cole struck out 110 batters in just over 60 innings, while managing a sparkling 1.61 ERA. He made another All-Star team, finished second in Cy Young voting, and had now established himself as one of the more consistent and dominant starters in the sport. Cole also get his most in-depth experience in the postseason, in a year the Astros ultimately lost Game 7 of the World Series.

After a not-entirely-pleasant send off from Houston, Gerrit Cole was finally hitting free agency. And, in December of 2019, the ace signed a nine-year, $324 million dollar deal to make him a Yankee for perhaps the rest of his career.

His first season in the Bronx was the unfortunate shortened 2020 campaign, though he still pitched quite well, posting a 151 ERA+ in his 12 starts. Come 2021, however, Cole started a run that further settled him in as a premier workhorse for the Yankees. From each season across 2021-23, Cole started at least 30 games, while posting a cumulative 3.13 ERA with a 3.19 FIP to back it up. His run peaked in a 2023 season that saw him lead the AL in ERA, innings pitched, and WHIP, leading to his first career Cy Young Award. At age 32 and in his fourth season with the Yankees, Cole had never been better.

In 2024, the injury big began to bite, as he started just 17 games and worked fewer innings than he ever had (excluding 2020). His performance was still good, though maybe a bit down by his lofty standards. Cole would, however, turn it on at the right time. In five postseason starts, he managed a 2.17 ERA, which included just two earned runs against him in 12.2 innings of work in that year’s World Series.

Although the series did not end happily for New York, Cole’s performance had nothing to do with it. After that shortened season, that dreaded injury bug came back with a vengeance, as Cole would miss the entire 2025 season, and the beginning of ‘26 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

He would return in May of this year, and despite some rust needing to come off, he’s largely been the same dependable ace he has been since arriving. As the Yankees head toward another postseason appearance, Cole’s experience and ability to dominate on the mound will surely be leaned upon this October, and likely some more to come.

Although there are still two seasons left on his nine-year deal, calling his enormous contract with the Yankees anything other than a success would be hard to picture at this point. If he can stay healthy, there’s little reason to doubt he’ll continue to be a vital piece of the Yankees roster.

Here’s to wishing the six-time All-Star a happy 36th birthday!

Losing three of four to the Athletics over the weekend pretty much killed any hope the Mariners had of making a dramatic last second entrance back into the playoff race. Technically, their playoff odds still stand at 6.6% but they’d need to win close to 80% of their remaining 18 games just to reach .500. Even that probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the Astros in the division. But there’s still a chance, even after that terrible, horrible, no good, very bad series against the A’s.

Technically, the Rangers are still alive in both the AL West and AL Wild Card races, but they haven’t made any forward progress in either chase since the beginning of August. Their playoff odds currently sit at 26.6% but they’re four games under .500 since the All-Star break. The problem is their schedule. These three games against the Mariners and a three-game set against the Blue Jays during the second to last weekend of the season are the only games against direct opponents in either playoff race. That means the team needs to win a bunch and needs some help from around the league to leapfrog the teams ahead of them. Critically, they hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland and Toronto in the Wild Card race but lost their season series against Houston.

The Rangers activated Corey Seager off the IL on July 31 and he’s been one of their best hitters over the last month plus; since returning from his back injury, he’s posted a 139 wRC+ with five home runs. Ezequiel Duran capably filled in at shortstop while Seager was sidelined but hit well enough to play his way into an everyday role while Josh Jung has been injured. He’s been the team’s best player since the All-Star break with a 139 wRC+. Wyatt Langford (107 wRC+) and Brandon Nimmo (106) have both been fine during the second half of the season, but the team needs more from both of them if they want to make a run at a playoff spot over these next three weeks.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Cody Bradford looked like he was in the midst of a breakout season back in 2024 before he injured his elbow and underwent an internal brace procedure in 2025. Impeccable command and an excellent changeup allowed him to overcome a pretty mediocre fastball, helping him produce a 5.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.54 ERA in 13 starts. Since returning from his injury nearly two years later, his whiff rate has completely collapsed. He’s not generating any swings and misses with any of his pitches and his command is still a little off following his surgery.

Cal Quantrill started out the season as the long reliever in the Rangers’ bullpen but injuries have forced the team to move him back into the starting rotation over the last two and a half months. To his credit, he’s thrived back in a role that he has much more experience in. Since June 23, he’s posted a 2.41 ERA and a 3.71 FIP across 12 starts and two relief appearances. He’s been particularly good since the beginning of August, allowing just seven runs in 38 innings with an excellent 5.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. 

From a previous series preview:

Kumar Rocker has taken a big step forward this year, not because he’s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio in any meaningful way, but simply because he isn’t allowing as much hard contact. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is essentially unchanged from where it’s been during his first two seasons in the big leagues, but his hard hit and barrel rates allowed have dropped significantly. The biggest change in his profile is a greater emphasis on his death ball slider; he’s throwing it 38% of the time, is running a 41% whiff rate with it, and opposing batters have produced a .211 wOBA against it. His other pitches don’t stand out in any meaningful way, so it really seems like his improvement stems from leaning on his best pitch a lot more often.

Rocker allowed two runs in 6.2 innings in his previous outing against the Mariners. He struck out seven.

The Big Picture:

Just in case you’re holding out hope for a miracle, the Astros play the Phillies, the Guardians play the Orioles, and the Blue Jays play the Athletics this week.

The Phillies were unable to gain any ground in the division standings over the long weekend, which is unideal considering how quickly we’re approaching the end of the season. But even with another division title looking like a longshot, the Phillies need to get as many wins as they can in the coming weeks to bolster their playoff positioning.

This week sees another first place team come to Citizens Bank Park. However, unlike the Braves, the Houston Astros are in first place mostly because somebody has to be in first in the American League West.

Opposition research: Yordan Alvarez

The star studded roster of the 2022 Astros is a thing of the past. Stars like Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Alex Bregman have moved on. Jose Altuve is still around, but plays like he needs a new battery in his buzzer these days.

Still, the Astros are in first place for two main reasons:

1. The American League West is awful.
2. Yordan Alvarez is having an epic season.

Phillies fans should need no reminder as to who Alvarez is.

Note: I was surprised to look back and see that Alvarez struggled for most of the 2022 World Series, going 3-23. It shows you how much important home runs can flip narratives.

Considering the Phillies’ lefthanded relief situation has yet to sort itself out, it seems inevitable that Jose Alvarado is going to face Alvarez at some point in this series. I wouldn’t blame anyone for simply turning off their television when that happens. (Honestly, I wouldn’t blame anyone for turning off the TV for any Alvarado appearance, even though he has been somewhat better lately.) I was very surprised to learn that Alvarado and Alvarez haven’t squared off since 2022. Maybe Jose has just been waiting his chance to get some revenge?

Alvarez has been one of the best offensive players in the American League for years, although injuries limited him to just 48 games in 2025. In 2026, he’s healthy and it shows. He’s currently leading in all traditional Triple Crown categories, as well as walks and OPS.

Hating on the Astros

I still don’t understand how the Astros weren’t stripped of their World Series title from 2017. They clearly cheated, the league punished a bunch of the people involved, and the owner was only able to “defend” what they did using this word salad.

I’m sure they were also cheating somehow in 2022, but we’re still waiting for those details to come out.

Remembering a guy who used to play for both the Phillies and Astros

Brandon Duckworth’s popularity in Philadelphia was almost entirely due to his name, and the fans’ desire to start a fan club for every new player who joined the team. In August 2001, Duckworth was called up to make his debut and I believe there were about 50 different groups in the Veterans Stadium stands calling themselves either the “Duck Pond” or “Quack Pack” that day. (The number of groups eventually whittled down to just one or two.)

Duckworth gave those fans something to cheer about during his rookie season when he had a 3.52 ERA in eleven starts. Not so much the following year when his era shot up to 5.41. After another disappointing season in 2003, the Phillies sent him to the Astros as part of the trade for Billy Wagner.

I don’t know if Duckworth had any fan groups in Houston, but I can’t imagine he would, considering his ERA in two seasons there was 8.08.

Duckworth moved to Kansas City after 2005, but he was similarly bad there. After a stint in Japan, he moved to a front office role and is currently employed by the Yankees’ scouting department.

Additional thought about the series

It wasn’t a terrific weekend for the Phillies’ offense. I don’t have the exact figures, but it felt like Bryce Harper in particular abandoned his recent patient approach and was far more aggressive at the plate. Part of that may be trying to overcompensate for the rest of the lineup which hasn’t produced much lately.

The Phillies’ power has largely vanished in September. They have five home runs in the month, and three are by Kyle Schwarber. Luiz Arraez is showing why the Phillies didn’t pursue him last offseason, as his lack of power and refusal to accept a walk have hurt the team at times. And if anyone is still waiting for Trea Turner to finally get hot, you probably need to end that dream.

Can they improve during this series? The starters they’re scheduled to face appear to be a mixed bag. Hayden Wesneski has looked good in seven starts after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Hunter Brown hasn’t matched his 2025 season where he finished third in AL Cy Young Award voting, but he’s still been solid. They will seem to get a break in the third game against Cristian Brown who was demoted from the rotation and later reinserted only because the Astros were short on arms.

The Phillies can generally rely on their rotation to give them a good start most nights. But without more help from the offense (and the bullpen, but that’s a whole different story), that’s only going to get them so far.

I hope you all had a nice Labor Day holiday! The Twins did not, dropping the first game of a three-game series to the Tigers in Joe Ryan’s return from the injured list. In the previous week, the team went overall 3-3, taking a series 2-1 against the Tigers and then dropping a series 1-2 to the White Sox. They are now 8 games below .500, and 4.5 games outside of the final wild card spot. While there’s a chance, it’s growing more slim to play October baseball and frankly, their playoff chances are not completely in their own hands. So let’s just try to enjoy this last month of baseball!

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• Aidan O’Brien provides his September update on the Twins top-40 prospects.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• Patrick Reusse at the Star Tribune looks at why fans should be excited about Luke Keaschall taking control of the leadoff hitter spot.
• Matthew Leach at MLB.com discusses how Taj Bradley has turned around his career prospects this season.
• The St. Paul Saints set the International League record for homers in a season last week and Theo Tollefson at Zone Coverage looks at how the team is setting it’s eyes on a bigger goal – the MiLB record.

In the World of Baseball:

• Tell me if you’ve heard this before – nothing has changed in the American League. Tampa Bay still holds a commanding 4.0-game lead over the Yankees for top spot in the American League, and the White Sox and Astros hold the top spots in their respective divisions. The Blue Jays, Rangers, and Orioles are all within three games of the final wild card spot.
• The pennant race in the National League is a bit closer, with the Dodgers only 1.5 games behind the Brewers, and Atlanta is only 2.0 games behind. However, the Phillies, who have mounted a serious comeback since their abysmal April, have now climbed to the top wild card and have an outside chance at catching up to Atlanta, who have a 4.0 game lead. The Cubs and Diamondbacks round out the last two wild card spots, although the Padres are only 0.5 game behind the Dbacks.
• Jeff Passan at ESPN breaks down the candidates for the MLB’s next expansion teams.
• Manny Randhawa at MLB.com covers the first perfect game pitched in the minors since 2017.
• Despite leading the American League, Ben Clemens at Fangraphs looks at how Tampa Bay is dealing with injuries to a couple of pivotal pitchers.

Shohei Ohtani is still injured, and he doesn’t expect that to change between now and whenever the Dodgers are finished playing this year.

His acceptance of this reality shouldn’t be mistaken for submission. 

Ohtani said he can play through the discomfort in his right arm and left knee. He said he will overcome his current physical limitations by making changes to his swing.

“With some creativity, I think I can make up for what’s not right,” Ohtani said in Japanese. “Another way to say it is that it’s an opportunity to create new ways to compete.”

The question isn’t about his intent.

What’s unknown is whether what he said is even possible. What does he plan on doing, teach himself how to hit on one leg with one arm?

Ohtani played on Monday for the first time in five days and was 0 for 3 with a walk in a 6-3 win over the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium.

Striking out twice, he was about as non-threatening as he was the last time he played. Circling his forearm after fouling off a pitch in the seventh inning, he looked as physically compromised as he did last week.

Picturing this version of Ohtani as an offensive contributor in the playoffs feels unrealistic, but it’s not as if the Dodgers have a choice but to let him try to figure out something. Their offense isn’t the same when he’s not producing. 

Besides, if anyone can do the unthinkable, it’s Ohtani, who became a two-way player in the major leagues when the odds were believed to be stacked against him.

He’s not afraid to fail, and he’s not ashamed when he does.

Which is why he said he didn’t regret his attempt to return to the mound this season, even though it’s almost certainly responsible for his diminished physical state.

“If there was a chance I could contribute on the pitching side, I think September was the time to throw with that goal in mind,” Ohtani said. “I think we went for it at the appropriate time. 

“The result of that was a feeling that this season didn’t go well.”

Problems with his arm and knee kept from pitching after his start on July 3. But Ohtani did everything in his power to pitch again, and that probably cost him whatever chance he had of healing his arm and knee.

“For a pretty long time, it felt like there were times it got better and times it got worse,” Ohtani said. “I tried throwing, tried making adjustments, tried throwing live batting practice. When I raised the intensity, I felt the effects, and there were questions of whether I could contribute in the postseason. I think what the team didn’t want most was for me to push myself to where I couldn’t play as a hitter.”

When the Dodgers indicated they wanted him to abort his pitching comeback, Ohtani said, “I wanted to obey them.”

Ohtani sounded at peace with the decision.

On the prospect of him pitching again this season, he said, “I think there’s almost no chance of that.”

Ohtani added, “Right now, I think I want to focus on offense.”

Breaking out of his slump might require him to do so.

Ohtani is six for his last 52. He has only one home run in his last 22 games played outside of Coors Field in high-altitude Denver.

“I don’t feel extremely uncomfortable,” he said. “I don’t feel I’m especially late.”

In his view, he’s just missing the ball.

“It’s just that when I think I’m squaring it up, it goes foul,” he said. 

Ohtani didn’t blame his recent cold streak on his health, but he didn’t say his physical problems weren’t responsible for his decline in form, either.

Not feeling extremely uncomfortable doesn’t mean he doesn’t feel uncomfortable. Not feeling especially late doesn’t mean he doesn’t feel late.

Ohtani acknowledged he was concerned about his lead arm and back leg, and that he didn’t expect to feel healthy anytime soon.

“Just moving will, of course, slow down the recovery,” he said. “Whether it’s pitching or hitting, I think doing nothing and resting is the best.”

Ohtani didn’t plan on doing that, probably figuring that he was more likely to figure out how to perform with a broken-down body than he was to restore his health over the remainder of the regular season.

Rather than complain about the obstacles, Ohtani said he was in search of solutions.

“I think there are things that I’ve done until now that I’ll have to change,” he said.

He didn’t view himself as a lost cause.

“If I make adjustments,” he said, “I think my form will sufficiently improve.”

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rockies fans and fans across the country.

One of the storylines during the 2026 Colorado Rockies season has been Hunter Goodman. The 26-year-old catcher made his second-consecutive All-Star Game this year, and has been an absolute force at the plate. So far, he’s smashed a record-breaking 36 home runs and there are still 19 games left of the season. If Goodman is able to eclipse 40 homers, he will be the first Rockie to do it since Nolan Arenado hit 41 in 2019.

Do you think he can do it? Let us know, and tell us your final predictions in the comments!

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

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The Toronto Blue Jays have fallen out of a wild-card spot after two straight defeats, but they’re -180 favorites tonight with Jose Soriano on the hill against the Athletics.

Find out why I expect a Toronto win and plenty of scoring in my Blue Jays vs. Athletics predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 8, with first pitch from Sutter Health Park at 9:40 p.m. ET.

Blue Jays vs A’s predictions

Blue Jays vs A’s best bet: Over 9.5 (-110)

The Toronto Blue Jays and Athletics combined for 11 runs on Monday, and I’m predicting a similarly high-scoring game tonight with Jack Perkins starting for the Athletics.

Perkins ranks in the sixth percentile in pitching run value with a 6.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, while posting a massive 8.86 ERA over his last five starts. 

Perkins pitched beyond the fifth inning just once during that stretch, and he’ll hand the ball off to the worst bullpen in the majors, which owns a collective 5.43 ERA.

After a solid start to his tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays, Jose Soriano has also hit a rough patch. The right-hander carries a 4.76 ERA over his last five starts.

I’m playing the Over to -115.

COVERS INTEL: The Over has cashed in eight of Perkins’ last 11 starts, and five of Soriano’s last six outings.

Blue Jays vs A’s same-game parlay (SGP)

The Blue Jays will have the advantage on the mound for nine innings and should be able to outscore the Athletics, even if the hosts get to Soriano.

Nathan Lukes will be integral to Toronto’s success at the plate — he’s batting .355 in September with multiple hits in four of his last six games.

The Blue Jays outfielder also leads the team in hits vs. right-handed pitching this season (31).

Blue Jays vs A’s SGP

• Blue Jays moneyline
• Over 9.5
• Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 total bases

Blue Jays vs A’s home run pick: Nathan Lukes (+625)

Lukes has just 10 home runs this season, but he’s been heating up with four since Aug. 20. He’s also hit nine of his dingers vs. right-handed pitching, which is why I like tonight’s matchup vs. Perkins so much.

Perkins has allowed 1.7 HR/9 this season, which is one of the worst marks in the majors.

Blue Jays vs A’s odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -180 | Athletics +155
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (-115) | Athletics +1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)

Blue Jays vs A’s trend

The Blue Jays have hit the team total Over in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.30 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. A’s.

How to watch Blue Jays vs A’s and game info

Blue Jays vs A’s latest injuries

Blue Jays vs A’s weather

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The final AL Wild Card spot looks out of sight for the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers, but there's divisional bragging rights on the line as they square off at Comerica Park tonight, and the hosts enter as 56% favorites.

Detroit edged a free-scoring series opener yesterday, and my Twins vs. Tigers predictions signal another tough outing for a Minnesota team that struggles away from Target Field.

Read on for my free MLB picks for this Tuesday, Sept. 8 clash, with first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Who will win Twins vs Tigers today: Tigers moneyline (57%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

With three walk-off losses in the past week, it's no exaggeration to say the Detroit Tigers could be on a six-game win streak as they face the Minnesota Twins tonight.

I'm jumping on the Tigers moneyline given their history of feasting on Minnesota starter Dean Kremer, while fading a Twins team that’s 2-9 in its past 11 road games. This is playable up to 60%.

Kremer has an ugly 5.81 ERA this season, and he’s coughed up 15 runs in his last four outings. Even worse, he's posted a 9.12 career ERA against Detroit.

In contrast, the Tigers send the in-form Drew Anderson to the mound (2.96 ERA in his past five starts), and he held the Twins to one earned run through 5 2/3 innings of work earlier this month.

COVERS INTEL: Detroit has had Kremer’s number. He’s faced the Tigers twice this year — once with the Orioles, once with the Twins — and he’s given up a combined 14 hits and 12 earned runs.

Twins vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (49%)

Last night’s contest cashed the Over, and I’m expecting more of the same here, with the Detroit bats coming alive to the tune of 33 runs in their last six games. 

The Over has been a winning ticket in the past seven meetings between these teams, and it's 44-23-5 across Minnesota's 72 road contests this season. I'm also giving both lineups an edge against pitchers they faced just a week ago.

Each of Kremer's last five starts has delivered 11+ total runs, and the Twins’ relievers drag a 4.85 ERA into this matchup. Plus, Comerica Park continues to rank in the top half of the league for hitters.

Twins vs Tigers home run prediction: Riley Greene (17%)

Riley Greene was one of the Detroit heroes yesterday with a decisive two-run blast, and he also clubbed a pair of homers in Cleveland on Saturday as part of a scorching start to September. He's posted a 1.292 OPS across six games so far this month.

I see that continuing here against Kremer, who's allowing 2.0 dingers per nine innings in 2026, up from 1.2 last season, and a vulnerable Minnesota bullpen.

Kremer has been tagged for 16 homers this year, and nine of those have come against lefties. That bodes well for Greene, and I see him adding to his 19-HR tally tonight.

Twins vs Tigers weather

It’s set to be a cloudy night in Detroit with perfect baseball conditions and temperatures in the upper 70s for the first pitch.

Twins vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Twins 44% | Tigers 56%
• Run line: Twins +1.5 | Tigers -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Twins vs Tigers trend

The Over is 7-3 in Minnesota's last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Tigers.

How to watch Twins vs Tigers and game info

Twins vs Tigers latest injuries

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