
You knew that the only season series the San Francisco Giants have won against the San Diego Padres this decade was in 2021 and you figure that the Giants are unlikely to sweep the Padres this weekend in San Francisco to make it season series win #2, but maybe you didn’t realize just how much of the Padres’ fate the Giants hold in their hands?
The split with the Diamondbacks a week and a half ago didn’t obliterate Arizona’s Wild Card aspirations, but it was just enough losing to keep them a half game behind San Diego with — for them — just 15 games remaining. The Giants were supposed to be an easy way for them to enter this brutal — for them — September (Philadelphia, Houston, Kansas City (43-45 since June 1st), Texas, Miami, the Yankees, then three in Coors Field before the final three games of the season versus the Padres. Why mention the Diamondbacks at all?
Well, look, the Giants are actually playing spoilers right now. This isn’t the wishcasting of the past decade (save 2021) when these losers rolled into the final weeks staggering disappointments to a fan base that thought they were getting a perennial contender after the championships in the early 2010s, this is some actual spoiler behavior. San Diego’s next 7 games are against our Giants (3) and then 4 in Colorado before hosting the Marlins and then playing the Dodgers in LA, and hosting the Diamondbacks to end the season. They just went 5-1 on a homestand where they took 2 out of 3 from the Yankees and swept the Nationals. They are 22-14 since August 1st. So, they are riding high.
But, the Giants have won 10 of their last 17 and have done damage to multiple playoff hopefuls: they’ve taken out the Reds, brushed back the Diamondbacks, confused Atlanta, humbled Pittsburgh, and nuked the St. Louis Cardinals from orbit. The San Diego Padres are just half a game ahead of the Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot and 4.5 games ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates (who play the Cubs, Brewers, Royals, Cardinals, and Tigers). The Giants could be a doormat (the Padres have lost just 3 series at Oracle Park since the start of 2022, the last time being early 2024) helping San Diego improve its Wild Card standing, but there’s just enough excitement around these Giants to think that the spoiler energy might carry over to the weekend — despite two nationally televised games.
The first matchup in the series is pretty great. The Giants traded Robbie Ray to the Padres at the deadline and seem to have won that deal immediately. Ray was always going to be an improvement over the flotsam and jetsam that made up the Padres’ rotation before the deadline, but he has been remarkably worse for them than he was with the Giants. A 4.71 ERA & 6.06 FIP in 6 starts (28.2 IP) compared to 3.08 and 4.36 with the Giants. He’s struck out 20 and walked 20 in this span while allowed 5 HR and 15 ER. The sole win the Yankees had against San Diego last weekend was the Ray start where he allowed 5 ER in 2.1 IP.
Meanwhile, Anthony Molina has pitched quite a bit better than the “40-man roster castoff turned innings eater who will be DFA’d in the offseason” guy many people projected him to be when the Giants acquired him from Atlanta. He’s appeared in 3 games, the Giants have won all 3 games, and he has a 1.88 ERA (3.52 FIP) in 14.1 IP. Just 2 walks against 13 strikeouts. Very impressive and a really nice development down the stretch. You’d like to think a 24-year old with a 96 mph fastball and a curveball-slider combo with high whiff rates will be able to stick to the roster of a 90+-loss team that will need pitching heading into next season.
Then there are the performances from the dudes who will definitely be sticking around: Rafael Devers has a 272 wRC+ over these last 17 games, and he hasn’t even played in them all! His 9 home runs lead the team, of course, but also the entire sport — same with that wRC+. Bryce Eldridge has hit .365/.453/.596 over his last 64 PA (187 wRC+), Christian Koss .278/.328/.500 over his last 62 PA (130 wRC_), and Jonah Cox has been right there with both (.298/.365/.447 — 129 wRC+ and with 5 stolen bases).
Ahem. The Giants’ team walk rate has been 9.5% over this same span (21.6%).
So, between the hitting standouts and the pitching standouts — excited to see if Cesar Perdomo can continue to get outs against a tough lineup that has nonetheless struggled versus LHP this season (.691 OPS) — the Giants are setup to rain on the Padres’ parade a little bit. Their new owners, Kwanza Jones and Jose E. Feliciano, introduced themselves with a song made just for the occasion…
This is the exact sort of excitement and energy a cranky, losing team like the Giants ought to be able to frustrate at this time of the year if they’re to really create hope for a fanbase that isn’t sure when the team will be good again.
Series Overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (62-85) vs. San Diego Padres (78-68)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Friday at 7:15pm PT, Saturday at 1:05pm PT, Sunday at 4:20pm PT
National broadcasts: Friday (Apple TV), Sunday (NBC/Peacock)
Projected starters
Friday: Anthony Molina (RHP 3-0, 2.79 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 11-8, 3.39 ERA)
Saturday: Cesar Perdomo (LHP 0-0, 0.90 ERA) vs. Michael King (RHP 10-9, 3.00 ERA)
Sunday: Logan Webb (RHP 8-8, 4.10 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP 2-2, 3.43 ERA)
Players to watch
Padres
Nick Pivetta: He was the 14th-most valuable pitcher in MLB last season (3.7 fWAR) and the Padres got him on a song (3 years, $41 million), but he missed a massive chunk of this season with right elbow inflammation. He made just his 5th start of 2026 on Monday night, getting the win via 5 shutout innings, 2 hits, 0 walks, and just 2 strikeouts against the Nationals. His second start since returning from the IL will be at Oracle Park where he’s struggled. He has a career 5.40 ERA in 20 IP (admittedly, 7.1 of those came before 2020). He’s the Padres’ #2 starter, essentially, but with a wobbly Ray and a Pivetta still coming back from injury, you can see a fuzzy outline for how the Giants might take this series.
Jackson Merrill: This guy loves Oracle Park. In 16 games (68 PA), he’s slashing .379/.397/.606. That 1.003 OPS is his best result in any of the NL West Parks, and it’s really his best result in an opposing stadium if you set the threshold at 50 PA. He has higher OPSes in some other stadiums, but with fewer PA: Yankee Stadium — 1.556 OPS (9 PA), Fenway Park — 1.348 (23), loanDepot Park — 1.172 (37), Guaranteed Rate Field — 1.135 (13).
Fernando Tatis Jr. & Manny Machado: Tatis was bad the first two months of the season (.658 OPS through May), but since June 1st has slashed .295/.357/.528 (.886) with 19 homers and 18 stolen bases. If you move that “since” date to something more recent (August 1st), he remains the team’s best hitter. He (151 wRC+), Ty France (144 wRC+), Merrill (141), and catcher Luis Campusano (120) have led the charge. For his career (44 G 191 PA) he’s done quite well at Oracle Park (.860 OPS), better than his overall mark against the Giants (.839 OPS), but in the previous Oracle Park series this season, he was just 1-for-13 with 5 strikeouts. Will the bounce back go all the way with him to the Bay?
Meanwhile, the 33-year old Machado is having the worst season of his career (.224/.314/.414), but like Tatis Jr. he has managed to turn it around — to an extent. Since the All-Star break he’s slashing .263/.355/.409 with 7 homers and 6 doubles. Not a lot of power but he’s getting on base. He has a career .830 OPS against the Giants and an .806 OPS at Oracle Park; but, this season, it’s .274 vs. the Giants overall and and 1-for-12 at Oracle Park. Will he, like Tatis, bring his turnaround with him?
Giants
Logan Webb: It was a nice bounceback start for Webb against the Cardinals following the worst start of his career; but, the Padres have his number. He’s already had a 4-inning, 6-earned run disaster in San Francisco against them back in May after they’d tagged him for 3 runs in 6 innings in San Diego (though, that game wound up being the Giants’ first win of the season). He’s 5-6 with a 3.60 ERA for his career against the Padres (110 IP). He has still been quite a bit better at home (3.26 ERA) than the road (5.29 ERA), of course, but this looks (on paper, anyway), to be a tough matchup.
Drew Cavanaugh: Look, he’s not a starter, but a left-handed hitting catcher with a 10.5% walk rate (though, yes, a 28% strikeout rate) with average-y defense is a player who has likely played his way onto a major league roster. The Susac-Cavanaugh combo might be cemented by the rest of this month. The Padres’ pitching has been worse against left-handed pitching than right-handed, too (.710 OPS vs. .697), so this might be a good weekend for him.
The lefty relievers: Because the Padres have struggled more against left-handed pitching (94 wRC+ — 18th in MLB), I wonder if we’ll see Tugboat, Reiver Sanmartin, and Phil Abner early and often, at least in games 1 & 2 of the series.
Prediction time
The Giants will not sweep the Padres.























