
Home sweet home. The Cubs returned home and the offense produced 12 runs. Another blowout win. Another double digit run scoring game. The Cubs did what they do best. They were patient. They moved the line. They all contributed. WPA is a fickle friend. It’s a hard curve that anyone ended up with a negative score. That’s the cruel fate of early results when the game gets lopsided quickly. Over the course of nine innings, every Cub with more than one plate appearance contributed as did every pitcher who threw an inning. My friend always used to say someone had to make the outs.
I’m throwing in my proverbial white towel. We enter this last “block” of games, a tortured grouping as the two off days in the middle make it not terribly blocky. It starts with a resounding win. Many times after a game like this, I’ve noted the lack of utility of such a game. My thoughts don’t change. The Cubs aren’t more ready to win games in October because of a game like this. But, that reality has already been served. This team isn’t going to be “ready” for the postseason.
I still don’t think that means they are an automatic out. The team has playoff experience. It has a ton of talent. It has confidence. It has its league’s best player. For this year, at least. It has a chance. But it’s shortstop will surely be playing himself back into game shape and competitive groove. And he wasn’t having a great season in the first place. Its starting pitching is good, not great. Its bullpen is in disarray and there isn’t enough runway to sort out roles or get confidence back.
This organization certainly didn’t set out to be a team that tries to just flip the switch come October. The Dodgers certainly have all the looks of a team that turned it on when the calendar got to September. I expect the Yankees to follow suit. It shouldn’t be surprising to those of us who have followed the “inclusive postseason” team sports. It shouldn’t surprise that there is a growing amount of “get there at the end.” We’ve watched teams across all of the other major sports tread water and then turn it on at the end. It won’t really be noticed with the Dodgers. But that’s a team whose talent level is probably at about 115 wins that is going to win around 100. Heck, it’s very possibly too little, too late, but the Blue Jays are making a late playoff push. The Astros, the Guardians and the Padres have all made some level of late push. All of these teams have a ton of October experience.
The Cubs don’t belong in that group. They made it last year and they won a series. But it hasn’t been a storied history of late. That mini rebuild took some time and had some near misses. But injuries have crushed this team. Relying on too many pitchers with injury history or not, this team has suffered a staggering number of injuries. You had to figure it was coming on some level after last year’s team was pretty generally healthy. This team has been pretty generally not.
This team is going to trust fall into the postseason. There are no pillars, no crutches to lean on. I mean not “no” things to lean on. Their defense is at least in the conversation for historically great. Their center fielder is a superstar having a storybook season. There is a lot of experience and lot of talent. In Alex Bregman, Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes, they added to a locker room that already had Dansby Swanson with significant postseason experiences. Daniel Palencia had the amazing opportunity to close out the WBC. When the brightest lights shine, they’re going to roll out there. They probably aren’t going to be favorites. Craig Counsell is going to look at them. He’s going to ask them to just try to win one inning at a time. Don’t look ahead. Don’t focus about who’s going to throw the last inning, take the last at bat. Look to who is going to get the ball now. Whose turn it is to move the line.
Execute. Be the player you can be. Be the team you can be. It ain’t over until it’s over.
Three Positives:
- It’s always good when I could list the whole team. It starts with Shōta Imanaga. He had a rough first inning, allowing a triple among three hits. He was bailed out by his catcher on a caught stealing. Then he settled down and allowed two over six. Somehow the worst start he’s ever made versus the Pirates.
- Fellow countryman Seiya Suzuki had three hits, one a triple, and scored three runs.
- Michael Busch had a single, double, sacrifice fly and drove in three runs. He also scored two.
- Yep. I’m cheating. Alex Bregman had three hits, needing only a triple for the cycle. He drove in two and scored two.
Game 148, September 11: Cubs 12, Pirates 2 (82-66)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Carson Kelly (.194). 2-3, 2B, HBP, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.093). 2-5, 2B, RBI
- Sidekick: Shōta Imanaga (.092). 6 IP, 2 R, 4 K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Pedro Ramirez (-.057). 1-4, 2B, 2 R
- Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.033). 1-4, BB, RBI, R
- Kid: Michael Conforto (-.028). 1-3, SF, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s two-run double with two outs in the second gave the Cubs a two run lead. That’s a lot of twos. (.192)
Pirates Play of the Game: Konnor Griffin’s triple leading off the game. (.091)
Note: 23 of 79 WPA events in this game were worth .000.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 147 Winner: Michael Conforto 27 of 36 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Alex Bregman +27
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +24.5
- Michael Conforto +17
- Carson Kelly +16.5
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Seiya Suzuki -15
- Nico Hoerner -15
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -18.5
Scoreboard Watching: Diamondbacks win (Cubs up 3). Padres win (Cubs up 2.5). Phillies lost (Tied and Cubs hold tiebreaker).
Up Next: Game two of the three-game set. Clay Holmes (6-7, 2.83) starts for the Cubs. Holmes is 2-3 with a 3.51 as a Cub. He’s coming off of his worst start as a Cub, allowing eight runs over four innings to the Marlins. Small sample size alert, but he’s allowed one run in 18 innings of work at home at Wrigley.
Paul Skenes is just 10-11 with a 3.83. Those numbers aren’t awful, but a real step down for him. It’s worse than that if we go back over his last 15 starts. In that span he is 4-6 with a 4.78. In two starts against the Cubs, he is 0-2 and has allowed eight runs (six earned) in 10.2 innings of work. He was quite good in his last start, shutting the Angels out for 5.1 innings and picking up a win. He only made four starts in August and hasn’t thrown 100 pitches since July. Don’t be surprised if he is on a short leash.



















































