The Cubs’ 2022 season began much like 2021 ended — with the team losing games, some of them by large scores (though they also had a 21-0 win over the Pirates in that span, go figure).
They had taken two of the first three games of a four-game set against the Reds in Cincinnati, and the last one started out well. The Cubs had a 3-0 lead going into the bottom of the second. Frank Schwindel had doubled in two runs and Nico Hoerner homered, all of that off Hunter Greene. Greene, who had promise, wasn’t quite yet the pitcher he became by 2025.
So that’s all good, right?
Well, not so much. Justin Steele, who wasn’t quite yet the pitcher he became in 2023 and 2024, got hammered for seven runs in two innings (plus five batters into the third). Scott Effross relieved and wasn’t any better, and neither were Brandon Hughes, Chris Martin and Rowan Wick.
The Cubs trailed 15-5 going into the bottom of the eighth and so David Ross summoned infielder Andrelton Simmons to throw that inning.
Simmons, let’s be frank, was not a good signing by Jed Hoyer & Co. He had posted a poor year for the Twins in 2021 (.558 OPS in 131 games) and was coming off a shoulder injury. That hampered his fielding and the man simply could not hit anymore. In 34 games for the Cubs Simmons batted .173/.244/.187 (13-for-75).
And he wasn’t any better as a pitcher. First eight batters he faced: single, single, walk, single, sacrifice fly, single, double, sacrifice fly. If you’ve lost count, that’s five runs before Simmons got Alejo López to pop up to end the inning.
At least Gaetti did make some positive contributions to the Cubs in his time with the team. Not so much with Simmons, who was released in August 2022. His contract was a complete waste of $4 million.
Brown, who'll turn 34 in July, had been with the Athletics the past seven years.
He played in just 38 MLB games during the 2025 season, but had seen action in 111 or more games for the A's over four straight seasons from 2021 to 2024. His best season came in 2022 when he hit .230 with 25 homers, 26 doubles, and 73 RBI over 150 games.
Overall, the left-handed hitter owns a career .226/.292/.419 slash line with 74 home runs, 79 doubles, eight triples, and 233 RBI. He's logged 197 games in RF, 172 games in LF, 159 games at first base, 32 games as the DH, and 28 games in CF.
Brown was released by the A's in June 2025 and signed a minor league deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks in July, before opting out on Aug. 10 and finishing the year unsigned. He hit .291 with six home runs and six doubles over 26 games for Triple-A Reno.
He will likely serve as outfield depth for the Yanks, who are still trying to reunite with Cody Bellinger in free agency and already have Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, and Jasson Dominguez, plus top prospect Spencer Jones looming.
This story has been corrected in reaction to a mathematical error caught by user Tim B.
In 2024, Logan Gilbert became one of MLB’s apex predators. He led baseball in innings pitched with 208.2 and finished second in the AL in strikeouts with 220. He was rewarded with a trip to the All-Star game and a sixth place finish in Cy Young voting. His 2025 looked just about as good on paper with his ERA, xERA, and FIP about the same or better. And he even improved his strikeout rate from 27.4% to 32.3%, going from 17th in the league to third.
Yet he wasn’t as valuable to the team.
Why? He pitched about an inning fewer per game, averaging 6.1 innings per start in 2024—workhorse numbers in the modern game—but collapsing to a more pedestrian 5.1 in 2025. A bit of this was managing the injury that caused him to hit the IL for the first time in his career in May. But the pattern actually held both before and after the IL stint (and, to frontload this, so does just about everything else in this article). And he only averaged six fewer pitches per start, which only explains about a third of an inning. Rather, the culprit is that Gilbert needed more pitches per plate appearance in 2025: His P/PA spiked from 3.78 to 4.03.
I know a jump of 0.25 P/PA doesn’t seem like much, but it adds up to the other two-thirds of an inning, or about 22 innings over the course of a season. That’s especially damaging because those are the innings that have to be covered by the soft underbelly of middle relief.
So why was he about as good on a rate basis, but less efficient? I thought I knew the answer, but what I found surprised me.
Suspect #1: The strikeout surge
The most obvious explanation is that 4.9% jump in his strikeout rate. Relatively speaking, that’s 17.9% more strikeouts, which is a lot. Strikeouts naturally take more pitches than PAs that end with balls in play since you need at least three pitches for a strikeout. For Gilbert, in 2024, his average strikeout took 4.92 pitches, and his PAs that ended in balls in play (we’ll call these BIPPAs, because it sounds better than PABIP and doesn’t risk confusion with BABIP) was 3.17. That’s a difference of 1.6 additional pitches for a strikeout.
But here’s the twist: while Gilbert was less efficient overall, he actually got more efficient in his strikeouts, from 4.918 P/K to 4.827 P/K. That’s a confounding factor in using his strikeout surge as the explanation.
The math says the additional strikeouts added 0.087 P/PA, while the better efficiency saved him 0.030 P/PA. Netted out, that’s an increase of +0.057 P/PA caused by the strikeout surge.
So, the new strikeouts explained 23% of Gilbert’s dip in efficiency. That’s sizable, but I’m not prepared to give a guilty verdict here because I’m willing to live with a little less efficiency if it means more strikeouts. I love a Maddux as much as the next guy, but strikeouts are good. The real question is: where are the other three-quarters of the pitches hiding?
Suspect #2: The walk problem
The second obvious culprit is that his walk rate increased from 4.6% to 5.8%. Walks are the worst result for pitch efficiency since they’re a bad result and come at a high pitch cost; a walk costs almost three more P/PA than a BIPPA. The increase in walk rate would be bad on its own, but Gilbert compounded that by using more pitches per walk this year. In 2024, his average walk was 6.0 pitches, which rose to 6.323 pitches in 2025.
The math here says the additional walks accounted for an extra 0.037 P/PA and the fact that his walks were less efficient added another 0.019 P/PA, for a net effect of 0.056 P/PA. That explains 22% more of the overall change. That’s a meaningful contribution, but more of an accomplice than a principal.
Taken together with the strikeouts, we’ve accounted for 45% of the increase in P/PA. But after dealing with the two most obvious suspects, we’ve still got more than half the problem unsolved.
The Red Herrings: What the problem wasn’t
False lead #1: Two-strike struggles. The culprit had to be that Gilbert was struggling to finish guys off. It had to be. The mental image is Gilbert expanding the zone too much with two strikes, getting beat by balls and fouls. Look at his slider location with and without two strikes in 2024 and 2025:
Doesn’t that look like a guy who’s trying to get too cute and chase the chase? As soon as Gilbert’s efficiency started to be a problem last year, I locked in on this. But that led to confirmation bias, as every ball or foul in a two-strike count stood out in my head. I was so sure this was the answer that I signed up for Gilbert’s 40 in 40 with a title in mind (“40 in 40: Logan. Keith. Gilbert. Stop playing with your food, young man”) and assumed I’d bang it out in 45 minutes.
So imagine my surprise when I dug in and learned that Gilbert was actually a bit teensy bit more efficient with two strikes this year, contingent on getting a strikeout. He was only less efficient if the at-bat ended with a walk or a ball in play. That’s not really an issue of playing with his food or it would show up in the strikeout numbers as well. Keep in mind that, after all, his strikeout rate even improved this year.
False lead #2: Worse command. More balls and falling behind more often would explain things. The increase in walk rate even points in this direction. But no. His first-pitch strike rate went up (67.7% to 69.9%); his called strike rate remained flat (15.2%); he was in the zone slightly more(50.9% to 51.3%); and when he went out of the zone, he got more swings on those pitches (chases) (31.6% to 32.3%) and less contact on those swings (44.2% to 40.4%). That’s not a guy with a command problem.
To be sure, he did throw more balls in non-walk PAs (we exclude walks since they always have exactly four balls). But most of them came in his PAs that ended in strikeouts, and we want to strip those out of our analysis here to avoid double-counting since we already looked at P/K. The net effect of the additional balls in BIPPAs is just 0.005 P/PA. That’s not zero, but it’s just 2% of the total spike—more of a guy in the wrong place at the wrong time than a criminal.
The drawing room scene
Having accounted for strikeouts, walks, and balls/BIPPA, there’s really only one place left to look: strikes/BIPPA. (His HBP rate is too small to matter.) To quantify it, Gilbert threw 1.151 strikes/BIPPA in 2024, which spiked to 1.363 in 2025. That’s an 18% jump. Helpfully, this also explains why his walks took more pitches—since walks always take four balls, the additional pitches must be strikes. As we saw when looking at whether he was struggling with the put-away pitch above, Gilbert did see drawn out at-bats when he wasn’t able to get the strikeout.
But what kind of strikes are they? If it’s all called strikes and whiffs, then that’s a problem you’d live with. Those are pure good outcomes. But Gilbert’s called strikes and whiffs per BIPPA only increased by 0.010. Nearly all the additional strikes were coming from foul balls, going from 0.448 fouls/BIPPA in 2024 to 0.650 in 2025.
So at last, we have our culprit: Hitters fouling off 45% more pitches in plate appearances that ended with contact. This single factor explains nearly half of Gilbert’s entire inefficiency spike.
What’s odd is that while there was a 45% increase in BIPPA foul balls overall, only about half of them came before Gilbert got to two strikes. Those aren’t as good as a whiff or a called strike—and they do work to make the at-bat longer since unlike a walk or a strikeout, a BIPPA can happen in an 0-0 count—but it’d still be basically fine. They’re additional strikes that put Gilbert ahead, and the better a count is for a pitcher, the better all his outcomes are, increasing strikeouts, reducing walks, and even softening the contact hitters make when they connect. These pre-two-strike fouls helped explain why more PAs reached two strikes (60% versus 53.4%)—which is a good thing.
But the other half came from two-strike foul balls that extended the at-bat, pure pitch-count killers with no benefit. What makes it odd is that Gilbert’s two-strike efficiency on strikeouts actually improved—he was finishing strikeouts faster than ever. But in the plate appearances that reached two strikes and didn’t end in strikeouts, hitters were fouling off pitch after pitch until they saw something they could put in play. It’s not that he was playing with his food—it’s that he was either on or he wasn’t.
The murder weapon: hitter adjustments?
So we know what happened: hitters fouled off way more pitches in 2025, especially in plate appearances that ended with contact. But why?
I don’t think this was a matter of consistency. While there was more game-to-game variation in his strikeout totals (standard deviation went up by 18%), his overall game scores were actually more consistent (standard deviation went down by 25%).
There’s some evidence that hitters may have adjusted their approach. Gilbert’s overall foul rate jumped from 16.6% to 19.2% of all pitches while league-wide foul rates held steady. Whether this represents a strategic adjustment by opposing hitters—perhaps sitting on certain pitches or protecting the plate more aggressively—or simply Gilbert’s stuff playing differently on different nights is hard to say definitively. His foul rate went up on his fastball, splitter, and curveball. It only went down on his slider, and even then by just a touch; and that’s a natural consequence of his using it in two-strike counts much less since guys will protect more with two strikes.
What’s clear is that in 2025, when Gilbert didn’t have his best command or when hitters were able to spoil his pitches, plate appearances dragged on much longer than they had in 2024.
The aftermath for 2026: How to adjust to the adjustment
The frustrating part is that there’s no obvious fix. Gilbert’s strikeout gains are real and valuable—jumping from 17th to third in the league is elite. His command metrics actually improved. He was more efficient in getting strikeouts. By most measures, he got better in 2025.
And yet: fewer innings, more stress on the bullpen, less overall value to the team.
Can Gilbert find a way to maintain his strikeout gains while reducing the foul-ball problem in 2026? Perhaps. But without a clear explanation for why hitters fouled off so many more pitches, there’s no clear path forward. I’d like to look further at the impact of his splitter becoming his go-to two-strike pitch, and what happened to his slider, which had similar velocity and movement but much worse results.
The price of greatness
But while we figured out how it happened, we still don’t know why. So, until we find answers, we’re left wondering if this is who Gilbert is now: a high-strikeout, low-efficiency pitcher. Maybe that’s okay. Even at 4.03 P/PA, we’re talking about 5-6 innings per start. That’s viable for a modern starter, especially if the Mariners can get more length from George Kirby and Bryce Miller or figure out the middle of their bullpen. But it’s not the workhorse ace of 2024—and it’s hard not to be disappointed by the 2025 version in comparison.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are less than a month away from reporting to Bradenton to get ready for the upcoming 2026 season.
The team looks a little different than it did a year ago, but some changes are still to be made. ESPN contributor Jesse Rogers wrote about what the Pirates have done this off-season and what still needs to be accomplished.
“Pittsburgh set out to improve its offense, and the Pirates have done that via trades and the free agent signing of O’Hearn. It doesn’t mean they’ll be a juggernaut at the plate, but they’ll be better than last season. That’s a start. Lowe and O’Hearn also bring experience playing for playoff-caliber teams, a much-needed benefit for the Pirates,” Rogers wrote.
The Pirates had one of the league’s worst offenses this past season, so their moves so far haven’t been a surprise. However, there is still room for improvement on that front.
“The Pirates aren’t done looking for offense, which could come in the form of an outfield bat or an addition to the left side of the infield. Or both. And after trading from their pitching depth, moving Johan Oviedo and Mike Burrows in separate deals, they would like to refill that part of their roster, too,” Rogers wrote.
“It’s already been a more active offseason for the Pirates than they’ve had in recent memory as they try to build around ace Paul Skenes. Smaller moves might be in order between now and spring training, but Pittsburgh shouldn’t be done adding.”
The Pirates could make another free agency splash by signing someone like Cody Bellinger, or they could ride out their group to see what they have. The offense should be better in 2026, but it remains to be seen how much improvement will be made and if it will be enough to knock on the door in the wild card race in the National League.
BD community, what are your thoughts on this offseason’s moves? Chime off in the comments section below.
Bo Bichette has been a Blue Jay since we drafted him in the second round of the 2016 draft, so ten years now, seven of them with the major league team.
He was a top prospect, reaching number eight on Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list. In 2017 he was number on nine our top 40 list (mistakes were made, TJ Zeuch and Conner Greene were in the two spots ahead of him), moving up to number two in 2018 (you can guess who was number one).
In 2018 I wrote:
Bo’s second pro season went as well as his first. He hit .362/.423/.564 splitting time between Lansing and Dunedin with 14 home runs.
Bo is on everyone’s list of Top 100 MLB prospects, 8th on Baseball America’s, 14th on MLB’s and 19th on Baseball Prospectus.
About the only question is can he stay at short. Some think he’ll have to move to second, but if he continues to hit as well as he has, we’ll be ok with a little less than terrific range. He has been working at his defense. It might come down to which position is open when it is time to call him up.
He was called up at the end of July in 2019, and started his MLB career with an 11 game hitting streak and finished the season with a .311/.358/.571 line with 11 home runs in 46 games. 2021 was COVID shortened, but he hit .301/.328/.512 in 29 games, and the Jays made it to the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
In 2021, he finally got to play a full season, and he showed us what he could do, leading the league in hits with 191, slugging 29 home runs and made the All-Star team for the first time
And he would do, pretty much, the same for the just of his time with the Jays (excepting the 2024 season), putting up OPS numbers in the lower .800s. Being at or near the top of the league in hits, getting his 20ish home runs a year.
It was strange, he was consistently about the same in OPS, but he would get there in different ways, sometimes he would start out slow and save his season in the last month. Sometimes he would start hot and slump near the end, finishing in that same area. Last year, he had a .738 OPS at the end of June, but then had a terrific second half, getting it up to .840 before the injury that ended his regular season.
2024 was the outlier, he had a .225/.277/.322 after 81 games. I was sure he’d have a terrific second half to bring his numbers back to his career norms, but then an injury took away his chance.
In a way, it is too bad that he came up at the same time as Vlad. Vlad has charisma, an obvious sense of humour, and a sense of fun. Bo didn’t always show those things, or at least not to the point where they weren’t overshadowed by Vlad.
Bo seemed more guarded, I guess more business-like. He didn’t have the interview answers with Hazel that made you smile or made you like him more. Maybe if Vlad wasn’t so…..Vlad like we’d feel more connected to Bo.
But then Bo seemed great with his teammates. He always seemed to be chatting with someone on the bench and there were moments when he’d allow himself a little smile or something that showed us there was a personality in there.
If they had come up together 40 years ago (well, maybe 60 years ago), everyone would say that Bo was serious about the game, that he was a student of the game and was always looking to get better, and Vlad would be written off (at least a bit) for being a clown, for not being serious about the game.
I put in ‘Bo Bichette personality’ in Google and the AI summery said
…a mix of fiery competitiveness, perfectionism, infectious energy, and surprising sincerity, known for his aggressive play style, leadership by example (always early, working hard), and growing willingness to discuss mental health, contrasting a seemingly carefree exterior with a deep internal drive for success. He’s charismatic, connects with fans, and leads with an intense desire to win, viewing baseball as a mental battle, yet remains grounded and focused on his craft.
That seems very fair. Everything seems ‘on field’ with him. You don’t see Bichette commercials between innings. When there is an interview with him, he keeps it focused on baseball, there is very little personal stuff involved.
Among the bullet points:
Authentic & Vulnerable (Increasingly): He’s opening up about the pressures of the game, viewing it as true strength, a shift from stoicism.
He did talk about the pressures, some last year, when he was struggling.
I think the Mets were smart to offer a shorter-term contract (though $42 million a year seems a lot of money). I’ve often thought he was unlikely to age well, since he doesn’t control the strike zone, but then he is smart and driven, perhaps he’ll figure out how to continue to be great as his reflexes slow a bit.
I’m not sure that third base is the right spot for him. I think he’d be much better at second base, but again, he’s a hard worker and smart, so he’ll figure out how to play it to the best of his abilities.
As much as I have worries that he won’t age well, I’m sorry to see him go. I’m not tired of watching him play. I’d like to see how he deals with playing into his 30s. See if he can remake himself. See if he can gain some control over the strike zone. And I’d like to watch him learn a new position.
I’m not too worried about the loss of his leadership skills. We seem to have a number of good leaders on the team. And I think we’ll be ok with the loss of his bat. But we’ve been following him up close for seven seasons (and following his rise through the minors before that). I’m going to miss watching him play (as much as I’m not going to miss Buck praising his two-strike approach when the stats don’t show that he is great with two strikes).
Best of luck with the Mets, Bo. Thanks for all the great memories. Thanks, especially, for the home run in the World Series.
It’s the dream of all baseball players to have a singular, meteoric rise from the moment they turn professional until their on top of the baseball world. It’s surely the dream of the teams that select them, too.
More often than not, it’s a rockier road, and certainly not a linear one. That’s been the case with Cam Collier so far in his still nascent professional career, though through the right lens even some of his bumps in the road still come out looking pretty optimistic.
Take, for instance, his 2025 season. He busted his thumb in spring camp, and it set him back for months. He began the year back in Arizona playing in Rookie Ball to get reps, not starting a game there until May 19th. He eventually returned to High-A Dayton the first week of June and didn’t sock his first homer there until June 14th, after which he’d go all the way until August 26th before hitting another.
All that from the guy whose 20 homers with Dayton the previous season led the entire Midwest League.
Clearly, the thumb issue impacted his swing, his bat speed, his overall power. Yet as Collier advanced up to AA Chattanooga in the Southern League, he still found a way to post a .377 OBP that tied for 11th best in the league with two others, one of whom being top Reds prospect Sal Stewart (who obviously moved right on up after doing that). This, all in Collier’s age-2o season.
So, we’ve got a guy who has a) shown enough in-game power to lead a league in homers, b) overcome a serious injury mid-season to get back on the field, and c) shown burgeoning excellence in commanding the strike zone and getting on-base, all while being one of the youngest guys at each level.
Yeah, he might be just a 1B-only guy defensively, but that’s the makings of an offense powerhouse of a prospect, one who is surely aching to put it all on display in a healthy 2026 season that should see him rise to AAA Louisville. And as we all know, if you’re at AAA Louisville, you’re just a sniff away from being a big leaguer, something he’s very much on the cusp of becoming despite a big speed-bump in 2025.
(Man, look at that potential 1B/DH logjam the Reds have looming…)
Collier’s your #6 prospect in this year’s Community Prospect Rankings, running away with the voting over the weekend over a talented field. If I were a gamblin’ man, I’d wager that Cam’s about to have the kind of breakout 2026 that shoots him right back in Top 100 overall prospect conversations, as that bat is simply going to continue to play.
In a series of events that developed fast enough to give fans whiplash, the Mets went from missing on Kyle Tucker to inking Bo Bichette less than 24 hours later. The 27-year-old shortstop spurned a long-term deal from the Phillies to sign an extremely player-friendly deal in New York; three years, $126 million, and—most critically—opt-outs after both year one and year two.
You’re no doubt familiar with Bichette, if for nothing other than his nearly-series-defining home run in last year’s World Series. Outside of that moment, he’s been one of the better shortstops in baseball since debuting in 2019, posting a cumulative 120 wRC+ and cresting 3.8 fWAR in all but one season. The one outlier—2024—was an injury plagued year in which Bichette struggled with a calf injury. He’s a good player, at times bordering on a great one, and you usually want to add that kind of guy when you can.
At the same time, Bichette’s profile is not typical. Ten years ago, we’d have looked at the top of the scale swing rates and ~10th percentile chase rates and flatly said that Bichette’s approach is problematic. Now we can recognize that he does a good enough job of swinging at the pitches he can damage such that his overall approach is broadly fine (as measured by SEAGER). Similarly, we might’ve assumed his high BABIP was unsustainable, and his offense as a result was fake. Now we have batted ball data that largely backs up his outlier ability to find open grass.
Even with that better understanding, you can see the warts. It’d be better if Bichette swung and chased less. It’d be better if he pulled the ball in the air more than 6.8% of the time. It’s also great that he’s a young free agent, but his exit velocities have already begun to decline, both in terms of max EV and 90th percentile. The recent history of lower body injuries—the aforementioned calf problems and a wonky knee injury last season—are concerning as well. We’ve also not mentioned the defense, which has gone from bad at shortstop to unplayable. Not a direct problem for the Mets of course, but something that should be noted.
Perhaps you’re more optimistic about the above, which is valid. The roster fit, however, is undeniably odd. Prior to this move, the Mets had a solid starting infield—Baty, Lindor, Semien, Polanco left to right—and an obvious hole in the outfield. Now, Bichette is slated to play a position he’s never played before (he’ll probably be fine there) while Baty has been bumped into a super utility role. It’s an odd allocation of resources, one that diminishes the net impact of the move.
The cost here could be described as anything from “high” to “astronomical.” We already mentioned the contract terms, but here’s what that actually translates to:
$42 million in direct salary for 2026
$30-35 million in CBT penalties
2nd and 5th highest selections in the 2026 draft, worth something like $1.5-2 million in pool space
$1 million in IFA
On top of that, the opt-out structure gives the Mets all the downside and none of the upside. If Bichette has a good season, demonstrating that his knee is healthy and he can play another position well, he opts out for a bigger deal as a 28-year-old free agent with no QO attached. If the injuries linger or if the defensive decline is not ameliorated by the move down the spectrum, the Mets are left holding the bag.
Our view on this move might change when we get to the end of the offseason and consider the totality of moves. Maybe Baty gets traded for a big-name player (Jarren Duran, Tarik Skubal, and Cole Ragans are some options). Maybe another starter and/or outfielder gets added and Baty becomes a valuable super-utility guy in the mold of Jeff McNeil. Right now, though, this looks like a very expensive move that doesn’t align at all with the roster’s needs.
We’d also be remiss if we didn’t discuss the narrative surrounding this deal. It sure seemed like the Mets were confident that they were going to get Kyle Tucker, or at least Steve Cohen’s tweet suggested that. Objectively, declining to give Tucker the highest AAV ever is a fine baseball decision; subjectively, acting like you’ve got a player in the bag and then coming up second (not the first time this has happened, either) makes you something of a laughing stock, particularly when you’re loud about it.
It’s dangerous to assume that we know more than a front office that is regarded as one of the more forward thinking in baseball. Nevertheless, even with a healthy amount of self-doubt and a good deal of squinting, this looks like a move that is imperfect at best and panicky at worst. The Bichette signing receives a C-.
Spring training is fast approaching, and the Boston Red Sox’ roster remains filled with question marks.
The way the roster is currently constructed suggests that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will make another trade or two before Opening Day. The Red Sox boast admirable pitching depth, but their lineup leaves plenty to be desired after losing Alex Bregman in free agency. They also must find a solution to their outfield logjam and add at least one reliable left-handed reliever to their bullpen.
We should expect multiple moves to be made before pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers on Feb. 10, but here’s what the 26-man roster looks like with about three weeks until spring training begins:
Starting rotation
Garrett Crochet, LHP
Ranger Suarez, LHP
Sonny Gray, RHP
Brayan Bello, RHP
Johan Oviedo, RHP
Starting pitching is the Red Sox’ strength. In fact, Boston could have the best rotation in baseball for 2026.
Brayan Bello slots in as the No. 4 starter after his best big-league season yet. After him, it will be a battle for the No. 5 spot with several depth options at Boston’s disposal.
For now, we have Johan Oviedo (acquired from Pittsburgh Pirates) as the frontrunner for the role, but he’ll compete with Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, and Kyle Harrison in spring training. There’s a strong possibility that the Red Sox take advantage of their pitching depth to make another trade to improve their lineup before Opening Day.
Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Garrett Whitlock, RHP
Jordan Hicks, RHP
Justin Slaten, RHP
Jovani Moran, LHP
Greg Weissert, RHP
Zack Kelly, RHP
It’s looking like it’ll be the same group — minus southpaws Justin Wilson, Brennan Bernardino, and trade deadline addition Steven Matz — in Boston’s bullpen next season. Without that trio, left-handed relief is among the glaring weaknesses on this roster.
Moran can’t be relied on to be the go-to lefty outside of Chapman. Perhaps top prospects Payton Tolle and/or Connelly Early can assume bullpen roles until spots open in the starting rotation, but it seems more likely they’ll begin the campaign in Triple-A if one doesn’t earn the No. 5 starter role.
Lineup
Roman Anthony, LF
Trevor Story, SS
Jarren Duran, DH
Willson Contreras, 1B
Wilyer Abreu, RF
Carlos Narvaez, C
Marcelo Mayer, 3B
Romy Gonzalez, 2B
Ceddanne Rafaela, CF
Willson Contreras was a nice upgrade at first base, but the Red Sox should still look to add at least one more bat before Opening Day. Losing Alex Bregman to the Chicago Cubs in free agency completely changes the look of the lineup and puts pressure on oft-injured shortstop Trevor Story to replicate his 2025 performance. Marcelo Mayer proved to be an outstanding defensive third baseman while filling in for Bregman last year, but his struggles against left-handed pitching and ongoing injury concerns are worrisome.
Then there’s the second base situation. Romy Gonzalez is a platoon bat, while David Hamilton provides next to zero offensive value besides his speed. Ceddanne Rafaela could move to second, and that would solve the outfield logjam, but then Boston would lose his elite defense in center field. Trading Duran or Abreu earlier in the offseason would’ve solved the problem, but with Bregman gone, the Red Sox can’t afford to part ways with either bat.
Bench
Masataka Yoshida, DH/OF
Connor Wong, C
Nick Sogard, UTIL
Nate Eaton, 3B/OF
David Hamilton, 2B/SS
The outfield logjam forces Duran into the DH spot and leaves Yoshida without an everyday role for the second straight season. Other than that, it’s a pretty straightforward bench with Wong as the backup catcher, Sogard and Eaton as versatile defenders, and Hamilton as the fill-in middle infielder who can pinch run.
On Tuesday, January 20, 2026, the Baseball Hall of Fame will likely gain new inductees when the results of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America vote will be announced at 6PM Eastern on the MLB Network. These possible inductees will join second baseman Jeff Kent who was some-what surprisingly elected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee last December.
Long-time big league outfielder Carlos Beltran is considered a near-lock to be elected. Joining him could be one of the icons of the Atlanta Braves post-1990 era, as center fielder Andruw Jones seems increasingly likely to gain election in his ninth year on the ballot.
Here are a look at the former Atlanta Braves who are on this year’s ballot.
Andruw Jones
Considered to be among the best defensive center fielders in the history of the game – and often the argument is between Jones and inner-circle Hall of Famer Willie Mays – Jones’ defensive runs saved are almost otherworldly and proof that his 10-consecutive Gold Gloves were much-deserved. Jones debuted with Atlanta at age 19 in 1996 and played with the Braves through the 2007 season.
His career declined significantly as he spent the next five seasons with four different organizations before heading to Japan for the final two season he played professionally. He was a five-time All-Star, a Silver Slugger and Player of the Year in 2005 when he hit a career-best 51 home runs. He hit 368 of his 434 career MLB home runs with Atlanta. He also hit 50 home runs in Japan.
Jones, with a career 67.o fWAR, is trending forward election in 2026, although the final vote will be close to the 75-percent threshold needed for induction.
Cole Hamels
Starting pitcher Cole Hamels pitched in one game for Atlanta in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. That ended up being his final big league appearance although he didn’t officially retire for the final time until 2024 after multiple failed come-back bids.
Although his time with the Braves did elicit a far number of jokes, Hamels is gaining notice for his overall career work, 10 years of which were as a starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies. He was a four-time All-Star and a World Series and NLCS MVP.
This is his first time on the ballot and he is going to safely make it to the 2027 ballot despite fall far short of induction in year-one. Hamels’ case for election will likely see him stay on the ballot for each of the years he is eligible, but he seems unlikely to gain election with stronger candidate on the ballot struggling to be voted into the Hall.
Nick Markakis
Outfielder Nick Markakis won’t get elected and will likley drop off the ballot after this year, his first of eligibility. Markakis played six of his 15 seasons with the Braves and appeared in his only All-Star game with the Braves in 2018.
He was a three-time Gold Glove winner – once with Atlanta – and also won is only Silver Slugger with the Braves. A solid big leaguer, he pounded more than 500 doubles in his nearly 2,400 career hits. He was a Brave from 2015 through the 2020 season.
Matt Kemp
Outfielder Matt Kemp is also a first-time eligible player who will also drop off after this year. Kemp had one stand-out season in his career – 2011 when he posted 8.3 fWAR and led the National League in multiple offensive categories but finished second in the NL MVP to Ryan Braun.
Kemp’s injury-plagued career was up-and-down after 2011. He played part of the 2016 season with the Braves as well as the 2017 season. He hit 31 home runs with Atlanta and 287 in his career.
Félix Hernández
Starting pitcher Félix Hernández is included here because if not for the COVID-season of 2020, he would have been an Atlanta Brave. “King Félix” came to Spring Training in 2020 and made four starts with the Braves, tossing 13.3 innings while striking out 14 and allowing on three runs before Spring Training ended and he decided to opt out of the shortened 2020 season.
As it stands, all 15 years of his big league career were with the Seattle Mariners where he was the 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner and finished second in the Cy Young twice. He won’t be elected in this cycle, but his vote totals are trended up as the six-time All-Star and two-time AL leader in ERA looks-to-be on pace for eventual election by the writers.
Looking ahead to the 2027 ballot, there a several other former Braves who could find their way on to the ballot for the first time, but none-of-which would be likley to be more than a one-and-done option.
Attendance at Royals games has waxed and waned throughout the years, mirroring the fortunes of the team on the field. Periods of contention have reliably driven crowds well above the franchise’s baseline, while prolonged rebuilding cycles have pushed attendance toward the bottom of the league.
Here’s a look at how Royals attendance has evolved over the years compared to MLB averages.
The Municipal Stadium Years (1969-1972)
Baseball was America’s #1 sport in the 1950s and 60s, but average per-game attendance was only about half what it is today. Baseball added four new teams in 1969 – the Royals, Seattle Pilots (who moved to Milwaukee after one year), San Diego Padres, and Montreal Expos. And yet attendance league-wide actually dipped by 1 percent to 13,992 fans per-game. The Expos were the only one of the four new teams to finish above-average in attendance, and the Padres were dead-last with just 6,333 fans per game.
The Royals finished 15th out of 24 clubs in per-game attendance, playing games in old Municipal Stadium at 22nd and Brooklyn. Just 17,688 fans came out on a cold and windy night to the first game in club history, half the stadium capacity of 34,164. They finished with the third-worst attendance in baseball the next year, but had a mild attendance bump by 1971 during the team’s first winning season. That didn’t carry over to 1972, as the Royals were one of eight clubs to draw fewer than 10,000 fans per game.
Here are ticket prices back in 1969, from the Royals team yearbook.
Early Royals Stadium (1973-1975)
The Royals enjoyed a pretty significant attendance bump after moving into brand new Royals Stadium, finishing tenth among all clubs in attendance in 1973, drawing more fans to the gate than the Yankees or either of the first-place AL clubs – the Orioles and Athletics. Attendance fell slightly the next two years as the team had a losing record in 1974, but bounced back with a then-club record 91 wins in 1975.
Here are 1975 ticket prices, from the team yearbook.
Western Division Dynasty (1976-1985)
The Royals soon became a fixture in the postseason, reaching the playoffs seven times in ten years. They became one of the top draws in baseball, finishing among the top six clubs in attendance every year between 1976 and 1982, except for 1979, when they finished seventh. But the Dodgers emerged as the top-drawing club in the game, becoming the first team ever to draw 3 million fans in a season in 1978.
Attendance actually went down in 1984, when the Royals went on a very late charge and won an unexpected division title. They got their attendance bump the next year, an 18 percent increase as they went on to win the first championship in club history.
Here is the ticket information for the 1980 season.
Post-first championship (1986-1994)
The Royals enjoyed another attendance bump in the year after their title, a 9 percent increase despite a losing season in which they lost popular manager Dick Howser to cancer. Attendance would continue to increase through 1989, when they topped 30,000 fans per-game for the first time in franchise history, a mark they wouldn’t reach again until 2015.
MLB attendance really began to take off in the mid-80s, going from 22,589 fans per game league-wide when the Royals won the 1985 title to 31,256 fans per-game when the players went on strike in 1994. New stadiums brought large new crowds in Baltimore, Cleveland, Texas, and Toronto, and new expansion teams in Colorado and Florida initially drew massive crowds in temporary homes in NFL stadiums.
Here are Royals ticket prices from the 1990 team yearbook.
Post-Kauffman (1995-2006)
Team founder and longtime owner Ewing Kauffman died in 1993, and his wife, Muriel, died a year later, leaving the team in the hands of a non-profit. Small market teams cut costs in the post-work-stoppage environment, leaving the Royals to flounder in the standings. Large market clubs like the Yankees and Dodgers were huge gate draws, while the Pirates, Royals, and Expos drew much smaller crowds. The Rays and Marlins also quickly sunk to the bottom of the league in attendance.
Here are ticket prices for the 2006 season.
Dayton Moore years (2007-2022)
The Royals had the sixth-lowest attendance the year they made a late run and won a surprise pennant in 2014. But fans came out in droves the next year, giving the Royals a 38 percent bump in attendance. That year, 2.7 million fans came to the K, tenth-most in baseball. The team averaged 33,439 fans per game, still the most well-attended season in club history.
Attendance league-wide was at its healthiest in the first 15 years of the century, with all but a handful of clubs averaging at least 20,000 fans per-game. MLB attendance peaked in 2008, with an average of 32,382 fans attending big league games that year. But by the end of this period, several clubs began “tanking” or were just plain lousy, leading to sparse crowds. In 2020, no fans were permitted due to the COVID pandemic, and crowds were restricted the following season.
The Royals began “dynamic pricing” in 2013, with ticket prices fluctuating based on demand. According to Statista, the average ticket price at Kauffman Stadium went from $19.83 in 2013 to $24.73 in 2014, when the Royals won the pennant, to $29.76 in their championship 2015 season.
J.J. Picollo years (2023-present)
After years of rebuilding after the championship core departed after 2017, the Royals began to build attendance back up once J.J. Picollo took over in 2023. A playoff run in 2024 boosted attendance, and that increase continued to 2025 when the team drew 21,590 fans per game, their best numbers since 2017.
Baseball recovered from the pandemic, although with slightly lower attendance numbers than before. The Athletics and Rays each played in minor league stadiums in 2025, limiting their already small attendance figures. The league overall has not averaged 30,000+ fans per game since 2016.
Big names came off the board this winter, and the Phillies were able to bring back Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto. Along the way, the club also added a number of players on minor-league contracts, looking to build depth and identify upside ahead of spring training.
The Phillies have found value this way before.
In 2023, the club signed reliever Jeff Hoffman to a minor-league deal the day after Opening Day. At the time, Hoffman was a seven-year veteran with an ERA north of 5.50.
Over the next two seasons in Philadelphia, he appeared in 122 games and posted a 2.28 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP. It’s a reminder that meaningful contributors can emerge from minor moves.
With that in mind, here’s a look at some of the more interesting minor-league additions this offseason.
Pitchers
Trevor Richards, RHP
If there’s a pitcher on this list who most closely resembles a potential Hoffman-type rebound, it might be Richards.
Since transitioning to a full-time relief role in 2021, the 32-year-old has posted 10.99 strikeouts per nine innings, ranking 19th among pitchers with at least 230 appearances. That strikeout rate is actually higher than Hoffman’s over the same span. The similarities extend further: Richards has held opponents to a .214/.304/.379 slash line, nearly identical to Hoffman’s .213/.302/.381.
Richards is at his best as a swing-and-miss arm, leaning heavily on his changeup while mixing in a low-90s fastball. In 2025, he moved away from that approach and struggled, allowing 35 earned runs across 57.2 innings between the Majors and Triple-A with three organizations. With a chance to break camp amid a crowded bullpen mix, Richards will look to rediscover what made him effective earlier in his career.
Bryse Wilson, RHP
Wilson represents another low-risk arm with recent big league innings. He spent the 2025 season with the White Sox, appearing in 20 games (five starts) and posting a 6.65 ERA across 47 1/3 innings, finishing with one of the higher ERAs among pitchers who reached that workload.
The 27-year-old was a former Top 100 prospect after three straight minor league seasons (2017–19) with 20-plus starts and a sub-3.50 ERA. He flashed upside as recently as 2023 with Milwaukee, when he posted a 2.58 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 76 2/3 innings in a full-time bullpen role. That season, opponents hit just .165 against his cutter and .106 against his four-seam fastball.
Those gains disappeared in 2025 after changes to his pitch mix, but Wilson profiles as a swingman if given the opportunity.
Jonathan Hernández, RHP
Hernández debuted in 2019 and found early success with Texas. Across parts of his first three seasons, he posted a 3.29 ERA in 65 appearances. That stretch included his return from Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for all of 2021.
Since then, results have been more uneven. Over the past two seasons, Hernández registered a 5.40 ERA at the Major League level. In 2025, however, he rebounded in the Rays organization, posting a 2.25 ERA at Triple-A.
What keeps him interesting is velocity. In 2022, Hernández ranked in the 97th percentile in fastball velocity, averaging 98 mph. If that velocity pairs consistently with his slider, he could push himself into the conversation this spring.
Genesis Cabrera, LHP
Cabrera has been well-traveled. Over the last three seasons, the 29-year-old left-hander has appeared in the Majors with six different organizations.
Command has been the persistent issue throughout his career, reflected in a 4.4 walks-per-nine rate. His most effective stretch came after being traded from St. Louis to Toronto in 2023, when he posted a 2.66 ERA across 23.2 innings. During that run, he leaned heavily on a fastball-cutter combination — each used more than 32 percent of the time as part of a five-pitch mix.
Since then, those pitches have not been paired as frequently, something the Phillies could look to revisit. If the club seeks additional left-handed options in the bullpen, Cabrera could factor into that mix.
Other pitchers signed: RHP Michael Mercado (re-signed), RHP Colin Peluse, RHP MT Morrissey, RHP Lenny Torres Jr., RHP Kyle Brnovich, LHP Adam Seminaris, LHP Tucker Davidson
Position players
Bryan De La Cruz, OF
De La Cruz is a familiar name. The 29-year-old spent his first four seasons with Miami, appearing in 431 games and slashing .258/.305/.419. On a 162-game basis, he averaged just under 21 home runs and 72 RBIs in his Marlins tenure.
He finished the 2024 season with Pittsburgh but struggled, then signed with Atlanta in free agency for 2025 and appeared in just 16 games before being designated for assignment. De La Cruz later signed with the Yankees and spent the remainder of the season at Triple-A, where he posted a .796 OPS with 30 extra-base hits in 91 games.
He capped the year with a strong showing in the Dominican Winter League, winning MVP honors after hitting .301 with eight home runs and a .888 OPS. De La Cruz provides right-handed power and could factor into the bench mix.
René Pinto, C
Once considered the top catching prospect in the Rays organization, Pinto has had difficulty sticking in the Majors. When he has played, however, the power has been evident.
Across his last two big-league seasons, Pinto hit eight home runs in 57 games with a .448 slugging percentage. In that span, he posted above-average barrel rates, hard-hit rates, and average exit velocity. Defensively, his 1.87 pop time ranked in the 95th percentile three seasons ago.
The sample size is limited, but his minor-league production supports the profile. In four of the past five seasons, Pinto recorded an OPS of .825 or higher. With Realmuto back in place, there’s no immediate need behind the plate, but Pinto may add depth and power if the situation calls for it.
Other position players signed: SS Liover Peguero, C Mark Kolozsvary, SS Christian Cairo
The people have spoken and Ralphy Velazquez is our No. 4 Guardians prospect. Velazquez won with a whopping 84.4% of the vote despite competing against six other prospects. He moves up five spots from No. 9 last year (and also No. 9 in 2024).
Velazquez was Cleveland’s first round draft pick in 2023, selected No. 23 overall out of Huntington Beach High School. Initially drafted as a catcher, it didn’t take long for Velazquez to be converted to first baseman. His bat was what mattered however, and he has hit at every level he’s played.
Velazquez made his pro debut at in the Arizona Complex League the year he was drafted, smacking a pair of home runs in the six games he played while sporting an impressive 153 wRC+.
In his first full season in the Cleveland system, Velazquez debuted at Single-A Lynchburg, where he blasted 10 home runs while slashing .243/.362.414 with a 131 wRC+ over 82 games, good enough to earn an invite to represent Cleveland in the Futures Game. While there, he put on a prodigious display in the home run derby and wowed scouts with his exit velocity. He finished the season with a 19-game stint at High-A Lake County.
The powerful prospect got off to a slow start to the 2024 season, which began at Lake County. After a rough first two months where he experienced a brutal .212 BABIP, although all of his other underlying data spoke otherwise. He broke out of his unlucky streak with an incredible two and a half months, slashing .287/.357/.522 with 10 home runs and a 143 wRC+. This earned him a promotion to Double-A Akron, where he made one of the most impressive Double-A debuts in recent memory, collecting 12 hits in 22 at bats with four home runs, four doubles and four walks, earning Eastern League player of the week. In his 28 games at Akron, he slashed .330/.405/.589, posting a career-best 188 wRC+.
Velazquez possesses a unique combination of power, athleticism, patience and contact. With improvements to his physical ability made over the past few years, he was able to withstand a full season of baseball in 2025, performing even better in his final month of the season.
Now, it’s time to determine who is number five in the Guardians’ loaded farm system! Your options are below:
Chourio was lining up to be Cleveland’s top prospect after a sensational 2024, but he was slowed in 2025 by a nagging shoulder injury and had a very average season. He’s looking to bounce back in 2026.
Cleveland’s competitive balance first round pick in 2024, Doughty debuted in full-season ball and put up solid numbers in his age-19 season at Single-A, showcasing elite control.
Had an average regular season in 2025 after missing the first two months with a shoulder sprain, which likely sapped his power after he came back in June.
Cleveland’s first round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-6 LaViolette instantly becomes one of the top power hitting prospects in the system. Strikeouts and contact have been an issue, however.
One of Cleveland’s most impressive hitters in its minor league system during his stint at High-A Lake County as a 20-year-old. Rosario has a unique combination of speed and power, but will need to overcome his strikeouts.
Acquired from Toronto in the Shane Bieber trade, Stephen rocketed through the minor league system in 2025 before hitting a wall in Double-A.He instantly became one of Cleveland’s top pitching prospects.
NOTE ON POLL: We have moved to Google Forms Surveys in an attempt to eliminate vote spammers. Please vote below. Voting will close at 11:59PM ET
There is no result because the results were skewed. How skewed? When closing responses, there were 548 collected. 86.6% of people claimed Dante Nori was the team’s third best prospect. No disrespect to Nori intended, but there is a consensus among the scouting community who the team’s top three prospects are, so let’s just learn from this and move on.
There is a decent amount of pressure on Justin Crawford now. He’s taken the methodical route to the majors, the team preferring him to find success at levels over an entire season as opposed to being rushed to Philadelphia before he was ready. Many scouting gurus have talked about his swing not being conducive to major league success no matter how well he performed in the minors, yet perform well in the minors he has.
The time has come for him to show what he can do in the majors and it seems the Phillies are primed to do just that. Judging from their offseason moves, the runway has been cleared for his to hit in the bottom third of the lineup and play left field full time.
Offensively, we could pretty much cut and paste any report we’ve written about Crawford since he was drafted here. He still hits the ball on the ground way too much, he still runs like the wind, he still puts the ball in play a lot, and he still swings at way too many pitches for a guy who has what is otherwise a 1990s leadoff man profile. He made some real improvements around the edges of his very durable broad profile in 2025—he cut his chase rate by over five points year-over-year, which got it from catastrophic to merely bad, while turning a few grounders into line drives—but for the most part what you think about his offensive game still depends on whether you think his reliance on nine-hopper singles can sustain a plus-or-better hit tool outcome in the majors.
With each new post, we’ll reveal who won the voting for that particular slot, then post new players for you to vote on, adding another one to the list each time until we get to our final tally of 20. Once we get to 20 top prospects, we’ll do an honorable mention post at the end. If a player gets traded to another team, we’ll just chuck him right on outta here and all the players will move up a spot. If a prospect gets acquired, we’ll ask where he should go on the list.
Probably the most important thing about this whole process – please vote. Give us a few minutes of your time, just click a button and then we can discuss other players and things in the comment section, but don’t forget – VOTE!
Inspired by Mike Carlucci at Over the Monster (and, perhaps, an Instagram trend) I thought it would be a fun exercise to look back at Detroit Tigers teams from ten, twenty and thirty years ago and put myself in the shoes of the average fan in the winters just before those seasons.
Some of you here may be relative newcomers to the Tigers; in that case, welcome aboard, and just know that being a serious playoff contender isn’t always a frequent occurrence. But sometimes things line up just right – and, of course, a certain pizza-chain-owning mogul decides to blow his entire bank account on the team for which he once played in the organization.
Some of you have followed the Tigers for decades longer than others; in that case, feel free to fill things in for forty, fifty or more years in the past down in the comments. To that end, fifty years ago marked the debut of one of the singular sensations in baseball history, Mark Fidrych. He’d put together a good year across three minor-league levels in 1975 at age 20, capping things off with six very good starts at Triple-A Evansville (completing four of them; ah, different times, then). Did anyone see his 1976 coming? I doubt anyone would’ve, including Fidrych himself, may he rest in peace.
Anyway, on with the exercise at hand.
Ten Years Ago: 2016
A sense of dread hung over Tigers fans that offseason, as the window for a realistic shot at a World Series title appeared to have mostly snapped shut in the second year of Brad Ausmus’ tenure in 2015. Core stars like Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martínez were aging, Justin Verlander had re-emerged as one of the best pitchers in the league in the second half of the season but most weren’t yet convinced and they’d failed to build back around him, and it became clear that Ausmus was not the guy to reassemble the Tigers into anything ressembling a good team. Plus, Dave Dombrowski quit as General Manager and his longtime deputy, Al Avila, was expected to pilot the ship along roughly the same course as before.
And, let’s face it, the less said about Alfredo “Big Pasta” Simón’s season in Detroit, the better. Yikes. (How did that trade with the Reds turn out? I hope what’s-his-name turned out alright. You know, ol’ Jonathon Crawford.)
But, like all good baseball movies, the aging veterans surely had to have one last turn in the Sun in them, right? Besides, J.D. Martinez had a great season with 38 home runs and 33 doubles, and while he wasn’t so hot with the glove, you could stick him in right field and have him occassionally DH, you could get away with some suspicious defence now and again. Al Alburquerque and his amazing slider could baffle hitters in the late innings, and Bruce Rondón was going to be the Closer of the Future.
While the 2016 Tigers finished with 86 wins – short of a Wild Card spot after a wretched August and September in which they went 23–32 – it was pretty clear that the extended run of consistently good teams, stretching back to 2011, was over. Ausmus was kept around for another year in which the Tigers struggled, traded away all the veteran they could, including Verlander, and finished last. Things look pretty bleak for years afterwards.
Twenty Years Ago: 2006
I’ve always felt that Alan Trammell got a raw deal as manager of the Tigers for three years in the early 2000s. He was handed a truly horrible team in 2003 and, unsurpsingly, they did terribly; nearly-historically-terribly, as it turned out. When your starting lineup features Dmitri Young as, by far, its most valuable hitter (with a nice 3.4 bWAR but a glove as strange as you’ll ever see), and a starting rotation in which one starter had an ERA below 5 (Nate Cornejo, ladies and gentlemen), there’s only so much you can do.
Since things can’t stay that bad for that long, they won 29 more games in 2004 than they did the year before: no pitcher lost twenty games, Iván Rodriguez and Carlos Guillén were solid free-agent pickups, and Dombrowski had a full season on the job to build the kind of team we’d desperately wanted for years. With high hopes and an interesting young rotation, what would 2005 bring?
A slight regression, as it turned out. They won one fewer game, the bullpen was a mess (although they managed to get rid of Ugueth Urbina just in time and flip him for the impossible-to-whiff Plácido Polanco), and while the young starters stayed healthy and ate up a whole lot of innings, they didn’t take the huge step forward that many were hoping for. They had a 61-62 record near the end of August, but the bottom fell out and that was that.
Thus, ol’ Tram “got the ziggy,” and Jim Leyland was brought in to scream and yell and occasionally cry and the room you were sitting in sure got a little dusty when that happened for the 2006 season. As we all know, the Tigers got a Wild Card after skidding backwards into the playoffs, losing the AL Central title to Minnesota, but they made it all the way to the World Series in a run that none of us could have truly predicted. Breakout or standout seasons were all over the place, and some young punk kid named Verlander decided he’d go out and win himself seventeen games as a 23-year-old rookie. Not bad at all.
Thirty Years Ago: 1996
Here’s where a lot of us start to have slightly fuzzy memories, myself included.
Sparky Anderson retired at the end of the 1995 season. He’d been the manager in Detroit since mid-1979, which is the kind of managerial tenure you rarely see in baseball. He’d turned a boatload of ridiculously talented prospects into a World Series winner and kept things going for a while as those prospects aged into veterans. But the strike in 1994, and management asking him to possibly guide replacement players in 1995 (before the strike was resolved) suggested to Sparky that it might be time to hang ‘em up.
Lou Whitaker also retired at the end of 1995, but Trammell decided he had one more season in him as Travis Fryman was clearly going to be the starting shortstop going forward. Kirk Gibson had also squeezed one final campaign out of his body and reitred a Tiger, after memorable seasons in Los Angeles (and not-so-memorable ones in Kansas City and Pittsburgh). Chad Curtis looked to be a solid pickup from the Angels, but the less said about him the better, too, as it turned out.
Add Mike Moore’s name to the list of fresh retirees, too: he’d lost 15 games in the Tigers rotation in 1995, and at age 35 and after fourteen seasons, he probably figured he’d had enough. The rotation in ‘95 had Felipe Lira and José Lima, two promising young pitchers, and the Tigers picked up Omar Olivares as a free agent; he’d had some good seasons in St. Louis. Gregg Olson was brought in to be their closer, and he’d had a nice run in the early-’90s in Baltimore. Could this patchwork pitching staff get the Tigers some wins, picking up the slack for a questionable starting lineup?
Nope. The Tigers in 1996 had the worst team ERA in American League history, they lost 109 games under Buddy Bell, and it kicked off a ten-season stretch in which they wouldn’t win 80 games in a season, and indeed only cracked 75 wins twice. Bobby Higginson sure deserved better than this.
Again, feel free to add your recollections of any of these past offseasons, a decade apart – or if you’re of a more refined vintage, something from a previous ending-in-six offseason.
Signed by the Mets on the January 15, 2025, Peña was the organization’s crown jewel for the 2025-2026 international free agent signing period. Considered one of the best position players available in the class, and potentially the best position player available, the Mets and Peña agreed to a $5 million dollar signing bonus, shattering the prior organizational record (Yovanny Rodriguez, $2.85 million) and eating up the majority of the $6,261,600 that the team had in their 2025-2026 pool.
Assigned to the Dominican Summer League, Peña has had an interesting start to his career so far. The 17-year-old shortstop started his career on June 2 for the DSL Mets Orange and went 0-2 with a strikeout and a hit-by-pitch. He would go 0-fer for roughly two weeks before logging his first professional hit on June 14th, going 1-3. After finally getting over that hurtle, Peña hit an incredible .351/.467/.635 over the course of the rest of the season. In total, he ended up hitting .292/.421/.528 in 178 at-bats over 55 games with 13 doubles, 1 triple, 9 home runs, 21 stolen bases in 25 attempts, and drew an even 36 walks to 36 strikeouts. Not just once, but twice, Peña hit three home runs in a single game; on June 26 when he went 4-5 with a double and three homers, and on August 18, when he went 4-5 with a single and three homers.
Listed a 5’11”, 170-pounds, Peña is almost certainly a little bigger and heavier than that now. He stands slightly open at the plate, holding his hands at the shoulders and wrapping his bat behind his head angled at 10:30. He swings with a slight leg lift but no real load or weight shift, primarily pulling the ball right now at a 48.5% rate and going back up the middle and to the opposite field at a 22.1% and 29.4% rate, respectively. His swing has natural uppercut and is designed towards putting the ball in the air, but was a bit slow and stiff according to scouts and evaluators early on in the season; whether it was just because he was still getting accustomed to professional baseball or not remains to be seen.
Despite the current lack of explosivity, Peña still makes loud contact, with a high-water exit velocity mark of 99.8 MPH as per public broadcasts of DSL contests where data is available. He does not expand the zone much, either. Peña was marketed as a hitter with his advanced pitch recognition and plate discipline for his age, and while that may be true broadly, the level of pitching he has been facing so far may simply be too embryonic to really get a good gauge on whether or not he actually is, or whether or not he only is currently for his cohort, relative to their current pitching abilities.
Peña’s lower half has thickened since first being scouted professionally, and he seemingly is still far from being physically maxed out. Defensively, he has the tools and ability to play shortstop but may be better suited at third base in the future depending on how quick-twitch athletic he remains. His range at shortstop is not currently an issue, but it may be taxed if he slows down in the future. His plus arm, smooth hands, and strong instincts work at either position.
2026 Mets Top 25 Prospect List
14) Zach Thornton 15) Nick Morabito 16) R.J. Gordon 17) Chris Suero 18) Dylan Ross 19) Ryan Lambert 20) Antonio Jimenez 21) Edward Lantigua 22) Eli Serrano III 23) Randy Guzman 24) Daiverson Gutierrez 25) Boston Baro
