NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 28: First baseman Paul Goldschmidt #48 of the New York Yankees gets third baseman Caleb Durbin #5 of the Boston Red Sox out in the eight inning at Yankee Stadium on August 28, 2026 in New York City. The New York Yankees won 1-0. (Photo by Benjamin B. Braun/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It may not seem like the Red Sox offense has been skidding over the past seven games, since five of those games resulted in victories. However, if you dig in a bit, some of that success is misleading if you take into account:
Last Saturday, Boston was shut out through eight innings, mainly by Giants rookie starter Blade Tidwell (4.54 ERA) before rallying for three runs in the bottom of the ninth.
Tuesday, while the scoreboard said “7” when all was said and done, the Red Sox entered extra innings tied 2-2 on two solo home runs by Mickey Gasper. Marlins starter Tyler Phillips (3.59 ERA) who has pitched much of the season out of the bullpen, struck out seven in 4 2/3 innings and allowed one run.
Wednesday, a shorthanded Red Sox lineup appeared to already be on their flight to New York, mustering just five hits in a shutout. Ryan Gusto (3.98 ERA), who has spent much of his time in the minor leagues this season, got his first win of the season pitching 5 2/3 innings.
Friday, Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler did what he usually does, striking out eight Red Sox in 5 2/3 shutout innings, allowing two hits.
The Sox have 20 runs prior to extra innings in those seven games. Here are some of the batting averages on this team since last Friday:
Nick Sogard .214 (28 at-bats)
Wilyer Abreu .214 (28 at-bats)
Willson Contreras .174 (23 at-bats)
Andruw Monasterio .150 (20 at-bats)
Adley Rutschman .056 (18 at-bats)
The team may get some reinforcements today or tomorrow, in Roman Anthony and/or Trevor Story. Reading through the comments on this website and social media, one of those players seems to be more welcome back than the other, understandably.
How should Chad Tracy shake up the lineup, with left-handers Carlos Rodon and Max Fried as the probable starters on Saturday, and right-hander Will Warren on Sunday?
Discuss in the comments and be good to each other. A big twelve hours ahead, clear your schedules!
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Player to hit a HR
Chance
Jackson Merrill
14%
Randy Arozarena
13%
Bryce Harper
20%
💲Today's HR parlay
25974x
Home run prediction: Jackson Merrill (14%)
Jackson Merrill brings real home run appeal given his current power form. The San Diego Padres outfielder owns a massive .522 ISO over his last six games, going deep three times during that span.
Merrill is also getting the ball in the air consistently, with 57.9% of his recent contact coming as fly balls. That profile plays well against Nick Martinez, who owns a 47.9% fly-ball rate at home this season.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen has limited hard contact lately, but it has still allowed a 40.3% fly-ball rate over the last week, giving Merrill another path to leave the yard.
The Seattle Mariners outfielder has gone deep seven times in August, and his power has traveled, with 10 of his homers against right-handed pitching coming away from home. He has a .474 ISO in the last week and three bombs in his last six contests as well.
Soriano is not a perfect pitcher to target because he keeps the ball on the ground, but he still allows a 31.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed bats, meaning one mistake can matter.
If Arozarena gets into Toronto’s bullpen late, his recent power surge gives him another path to leave the yard. Jays relievers have combined for a 5.51 FIP over the last week while giving up 1.85 HR/9.
Play to 15%.
Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Sportsnet, Mariners.TV
Home run prediction: Bryce Harper (20%)
Bryce Harper is in excellent power form heading into this matchup with Ryan Johnson. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger has gone deep twice over his last six games while posting a massive .391 ISOand .826 SLG during that span.
The contact quality backs it up, too. Harper owns a 50% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and 95.8 mph average exit velocity over the last week, showing he is consistently impacting the baseball.
Johnson has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard lately, allowing 1.75 HR/9 over his last five outings.
Play to 25%.
Time: 10:07 p.m. ET
Where to watch: ABTV, NBC Sports Philly
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 18-91, -7.89 units
Best home run combo for August 29
Jackson Merrill
Trade Now 25974x
Randy Arozarena
Bryce Harper
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ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - AUGUST 28: Jonny DeLuca #21 of the Tampa Bay Rays slides home to score before Freddy Fermin #54 of the San Diego Padres can make the tag in the fourth inning at Tropicana Field on August 28, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Diego Padres knew they would have their hands full against three top-end starters in their three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburgh, Fla. The Padres made the task of beating the Rays more difficult when they found themselves in a 6-0 hole after a five-run fourth inning. San Diego tried to get back in the game, but the deficit proved to be too much to overcome as the Padres dropped the series opener 9-4 on Friday night.
Casey Mize hit the leadoff batter Junior Caminero to open the bottom of the fourth inning. He then got a popout for the first out of the inning, but Chandler Simpson reached on a throwing error by Mize to put runners at the corners. Simpson promptly stole second base and Jonny DeLuca drew a six-pitch walk to load the bases. Mize got the ground ball he needed against Cedric Mullins, but Ty France was unable to get the ball out of his glove cleanly allowing Caminero to score and Mullins to reach first base. The Rays had a 2-0 lead and added to that when Mize threw a wild pitch that allowed Simpson to score. Jorge Mateo hit a sacrifice fly for the second out of the inning, but that allowed DeLuca to score to give Tampa Bay a 4-0 lead.
Mize then allowed a two-out RBI-single to Taylor Walls to give Tampa Bay a 5-0 lead and followed that with another two-out RBI-single to Yandy Diaz, which pushed the score to 6-0. Jonathan Aranda lined out to end the inning, but San Diego found itself in a deep hole.
The Padres answered with two runs in the top of the fifth inning to make the score 6-2 but the Rays answered back with a run in the bottom of the fifth to make the score, 7-2. Jackson Merrill, wo led the San Diego offense, tried to keep the Padres in the game when he connected on a two-run home run in the top of the sixth, which cut the Rays’ lead to three runs.
San Diego relievers David Morgan and Wandy Peralta allowed solo runs in the bottom of the sixth and bottom of the seventh innings respectively. The Padres went down without much of a fight in the eighth and ninth innings and they opened the six-game road trip with a five-run loss.
San Diego will try to get back in the win column when they meet Tampa Bay in Game 2 today at 1:10 p.m.
Padres News:
Baseball owners sent another proposal to the MLBPA, which was not well received, but the positive about the current negotiations according to Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball is both sides are communicating.
Manny Machado is banged up, but that is normal for this stage of the season. He might have benefitted from an additional day off, but he was in the lineup as usual against the Rays.
UNITED STATES - OCTOBER 15: Baseball: World Series, New York Yankees George Zeber (25) in action, at bat vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Scenic view of full moon and Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY 10/15/1978 (Photo by Heinz Kluetmeier/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (SetNumber: X22788 TK5)
Some ballplayers have signature achievements in Major League Baseball, milestones or moments that endure as part of their legacy. For some, making it to the big leagues in the first place is the mountaintop. George Zeber’s path to the Yankees was a circuitous one laden with setbacks and championed by a future Hall of Fame manager with a remarkably similar playing career to his protégé’s. Through war and peace, injury and recovery, and the many rungs on the minor-league ladder, Zeber’s ascent was as unlikely as it is admirable.
George William Zeber Born: August 29, 1950 (Ellwood City, PA) Yankees Tenure: 1977-78
George Zeber was born in Pennsylvania but grew up in Anaheim, CA. George was five when his father died, and his stepfather, Morris Davis, became a huge influence in his life. Davis “[w]as a wonderful person, got me into baseball and took care of the family,” he would later say. Zeber got enough into baseball that the Yankees selected him in the fifth round of the 1968 June amateur draft.
Zeber started his pro career in Rookie ball, playing middle infield and hitting from both sides of the plate. While his bat did not stand out, his glove did, as the 17-year-old led his team in fielding percentage at both second and short. Defense quickly became a calling card for the young prospect as he advanced to A-ball the following season.
After a promising 1969 campaign, though, Zeber would spend two full years away from baseball. He was drafted into the U.S. Army before the ‘70 season, assigned first to a stateside post and then to the Quang Tri province in Vietnam. Zeber served as part of an assault helicopter group where he saw combat. The experience altered the course of his life in more ways than one. “It was quite a while before I could pick up my life and get my head straight after serving in Vietnam,” he would later say, underscoring a phenomenon that affected many young men of his generation.
Zeber reported to Double-A West Haven in 1972 a changed man. In addition to the psychological impact of his service, Zeber had lost 30 pounds and was not in baseball shape. “I don’t feel comfortable in the field,” he said at the time. “I just don’t feel as agile as I did before going into the Army.” While he posted the highest OPS of any full season in his pro career, his defense suffered, as he committed an uncharacteristic 29 errors. ‘72 was also the first year he played under Bobby Cox, who after spending two years as a part-time infielder with the Yankees in the late ‘60s was beginning what would be a 40-year coaching career that landed him in Cooperstown.
Both Cox and Zeber were promoted to Triple-A Syracuse the following year. But Zeber suffered an knee injury that threatened to derail his career, a setback from which he would later say he was “never was quite the same.” He seriously considered walking away from baseball over the next year, crediting his first wife, Duskie, for convincing him to keep pushing. Before the ‘77 season, Zeber was given an invitation to big-league spring training and made the most of it, winning the Yankees’ James P. Dawson award, given each year to the team’s best-performing rookie in camp. Billy Martin, the team’s famously intense manager, gave the prospect his highest of praise. “I like George’s attitude,” he said at the time. “He’s a real hard-nosed guy.”
At the age of 26, Zeber had earned his call to The Show. No one was happier than his former manager (now his first-base coach), another man known more for his fiery temperament than his sentimentality. “You have to admire him,” said Cox. “George was a great prospect, and then after the knee thing, he was just holding on. A lesser man would have quit. As a manager you try not to get too close to any player, but there isn’t any player that I ever had that I rooted for as hard as I rooted for George.”
Happy birthday to George Zeber, who spent parts of two seasons with the @Yankees and got a World Series ring and a pretty nifty rookie card out of the deal! pic.twitter.com/B9uw7MsZYt
After the Yankees acquired Bucky Dent on April 5th, Zeber served mostly in a reserve capacity in ‘77, appearing in only 25 games — mostly spelling Willie Randolph at second. Still, he played well in limited action, hitting .323 with a .913 OPS in 75 plate appearances. He even got two pinch-hit appearances in that year’s World Series, striking out in each as the Yankees won their first championship in 15 years.
Zeber started the ‘78 season with the Yankees, but only appeared in three games before he was sent down in June. After spending the rest of the year back down at Triple-A, he made the decision to walk away from the game for good, starting a family and working in real estate and home building in the Santa Ana, CA area.
While Zeber’s career was brief, it was a remarkable testament to his fortitude. The man himself said it best years later. “Getting the opportunity to play in a World Series in my hometown in L.A. was a thrill,” he said in 1991. “I have no regrets about my career.” Please join us in wishing a very happy birthday to George Zeber.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - AUGUST 28: Logan Henderson #43 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a pitch in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at American Family Field on August 28, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Mets continue the weekend series with the Houston Astros at Citi Field, with a Saturday late-afternoon game at 4:10 on SNY.
Mets Notes
In six starts since the All-Star break, Nolan McLean has posted five quality starts and pitched a 2.40 ERA over 41.1 innings with 43 strikeouts to 19 walks. He's been very good of late, surrendering just two runs over his last 18 innings
Carson Benge, the Mets' other uber-impressive rookie, has been good of late as well, with a .347/.390/.561 slash line for a .951 OPS with five home runs and 13 RBI in his last 25 games
Bo Bichette, who took a knock the other day, has shown a lot of promise in the season's second half: .281 with a .758 OPS in 37 games since the Midsummer Classic
Today's Lineups
ASTROS
METS
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 28: Nelson Velázquez #30 of the Houston Astros catches a fly ball against the New York Mets during the eighth inning at Citi Field on August 28, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Caean Couto/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Meet the Mets
The Mets continued their recent downslide with a loss to the Astros in last night’s series opener. The Mets managed only a single run off a Carson Benge RBI double, and while Christian Scott held Houston scoreless for the first five innings, he faltered in the sixth and the Astros brought three runs home, which was all they would end up needing.
A Dominican prospect who had a deal with the Guardians was suspended by Major League Baseball after he was found to have falsified his age and identity.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - AUGUST 08: Carlos Estevez #53 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates a 6-4 win against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 08, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Since the Phillies are playing the Angels over the weekend, let’s go all the way back to the 2024 trade deadline. Remember those days? The offense was good but everyone hated it, Johan Rojas and Christian Pache were platooning in center field before Pache was dealt to Baltimore, and Jeff Hoffman didn’t think about Miguel Rojas in his sleep yet.
During the 2024 MLB trade deadline, the Phillies shipped prospects George Klassen and Sam Aldegheri for Carlos Estévez to give Rob Thomson one more leverage guy for October. Despite giving up the grand slam to Francisco Lindor to end the Phillies season, he put together a very respectable two months as the Phillies closer.
In 20 games, Estévez pitched to a 2.57 ERA while recording six saves. His best performance came against the Braves on September 1, pitching two full innings of scoreless baseball, one of them being in extras with the ghost runner, to allow Nick Castellanos to walk it off on Sunday Night Baseball in the 10th.
He, like the entire Phillies bullpen against the New York Mets in the NLDS, choked in the biggest moments but for what it’s worth, he was the best option Rob Thomson had during that series.
George Klassen was the headline piece from this trade and was finally called up earlier this season and has made six starts with the Angels, pitching to a 3.67 ERA over six starts. He has promising talent with a 96 mph four-seam fastball, a tantalizing slider that hitters have struggled against, and full mix around it.
With that said, Klassen has struggled to find the zone and limit walks, a problem that has existed since his college days. Just in his big league sample size, he has 24 strikeouts to 21 walks in only 27 innings of work. There is plenty of reliever risk with the profile because of his control issues. Something to monitor moving forward.
Sam Aldegheri has not quite found solid footing with the Angels, pitching a handful of times in each of the last three seasons but never getting significant run either as a starter or reliever. Across 60.1 innings in the big leagues, Aldegheri has a 5.67 ERA with 44 strikeouts to 37 walks as a soft-tossing left hander.
There are arguments from opportunity cost, maybe Klassen would’ve helped land someone better in a different trade down the line, or just keeping them as starting pitching depth.
However, given the lack of success from either arm has had, would you make the Carlos Estévez trade again?
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 28: Edmundo Sosa #33 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates a grand slam home run, to take a 5-3 lead over the Los Angeles Angels, during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 28, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Late last night, while you were sleeping, Edmundo Sosa did it again.
Sosa didn’t start last night’s thrilling 5-3, come-from-behind win over the Angels in Anaheim last night, but he sure did finish it. Brought up to the plate as a pinch hitter for Brandon Marsh in the top of the 9th, Sosa slammed a two-out grand slam off left-handed reliever Sammy Peralta over the left center field wall.
The blast delivered the Phillies a shocking and much-needed victory for the Phils, who moved to within one game of the Chicago Cubs for the NL’s top wild card spot.
The slam was the Phils’ first in the 9th inning with two out since Shane Victorino hit one in 2009. And it was the first pinch-hit 9th inning grand slam since Ozzie Virgil in 1983.
It’s the latest monster run-producing hit for Sosa in the month of August, helping boost what had been an abnormally down year for him at the plate. Overall, Sosa’s .235/.275/.388 slash line and .663 OPS are below his career average .255/.306/.412, .717 OPS.
In five of his last seven games dating back to August 10, Sosa has recorded multiple RBIs. And generally speaking, those run-producing hits have been impactful, such as his key 3-run double in the Phils’ incredible 9th inning comeback against the Cardinals last Sunday.
When Sosa came to the plate last night, the Phillies’ odds of winning were 14%. Following his grand slam, they jumped up to 92%, and increase in Wins Probability Added (WPA) of 78%. His bases loaded double last Sunday against St. Louis bumped their WPA from 10% to 42%, a jump of 32%.
It’s one of the reasons why Sosa has the fourth-most WPA on the Phillies, despite his part-time role.
Kyle Schwarber: 2.8 (578 PAs)
Bryson Stott: 1.5 (506 PAs)
Bryce Harper: 1.4 (576 PAs)
Edmundo Sosa: 1.3 (214 PAs)
Derek Hill: 1.2 (96 PAs)
Each percentage of Wins Probability Added, up or down, amounts to 0.1 WPA, so a jump of 78% in win probability is worth 0.78 WPA. So a big moment like last night obviously has a dramatic effect in a positive way.
Conversely, a player who routinely fails to come through in high leverage situations lowers their team’s win probability, negatively affecting their WPA. The worst WPA on the Phillies probably won’t surprise you.
Trea Turner: -2.6 (579 PAs)
Rafael Marchan: -1.6 (92 PAs)
Adolis Garcia: -0.9 (259 PAs)
Brandon Marsh: -0.7 (502 PAs)
Garrett Stubbs: -0.6 (52 PAs)
Sosa has a 1.392 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position, and in “high leverage” situations, his OPS is .923. It is .583 in medium leverage and .604 in low leverage situations.
His fellow bench running buddy Derek Hill has also been quite adept in coming through in the clutch, with an .832 OPS in late and close situations and an .893 OPS in high leverage spots. You may remember some of them.
Prior to Sosa’s heroics were some excellent at-bats by a team that continues to show improved discipline at the plate. Alec Bohm was hit by a pitch with one out. Justin Crawford worked a terrific at-bat and drew a walk.
Don’t overlook this at-bat in the Phillies’ ninth-inning rally:
Justin Crawford worked a one-out walk against Ben Joyce after seeing eight pitches, every one of them 99 mph or harder. pic.twitter.com/xtVpvlGPnP
Tangerine is an orange tabby kitten available for adoption at the Alvin Animal Adoption Center, in Alvin. (Animal ID: 9762) Photographed Tuesday, July 2, 2019. Tangerine is a sweet, playful kitten. (Photo by Karen Warren/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images)
The cat distribution system is functioning in Lawrenceville, Georgia this week. The Gwinnett Stripers were blessed with a little baby orange furball yesterday.
Check out that third from the last panel. My word, I don’t need anything else to take care and shelter at the moment, but I’m finding a blanket for this handsome fellow if he shows up at my door. They have requested names for the little one. The finalists are:
ChiPurr Jones
Parker
Cracker Jack
Dinger
Come on, y’all. What are we doing here? After all, do you remember the last time Gwinnett named anything? It was back in 2017. People were allegedly super confused about having two teams named the Braves, Gwinnett and Atlanta. They were buying tickets to the Triple-A team and very disappointed to find not-the-Atlanta-Braves take the field. In the mid-2010s, it was super easy to tell them apart. One was 75% composed of players that were never going to succeed long term in Major League Baseball, and the other one was Gwinnett.
But no matter, they were going to solicit names from the public. The name that got the most attention was the Buttons, named after Founding Father and former Governor of Georgia Button Gwinnett. The Buttons quickly opened a huge lead in the voting. Then the social team leaked the Buttons as the winner. That was pulled down almost immediately. Gwinnett went forward with the Stripers with their booger-green Bass-Pro-Shop-inspired uniforms.
Call the team whatever, but we’re talking something important here. This cat is going to answer to this name for the rest of its life. Well OK, they’ll call it that and he’ll ignore them. But this is an important matter. So what should we name this kitty? They have proven that they aren’t beholden to the final list anyway. We have been workshopping Martin Purrez, Martin Purrado (or Martin Gato), and Meowchal Harris II internally. What say you guys?
Yeah, it’s cats today for your question, but the Braves are 25 games up right now when this time last year they were 61-76 last year and about to be walked off by the Phillies on the 30th. Let’s pump the brakes a little.
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - MAY 1: Nolan Gorman #16 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates with Jordan Walker #18 of the St. Louis Cardinals after hitting a two-run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first inning at Busch Stadium on May 1, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It has been a tough week for the Cardinals with a five-game losing streak plunging their playoff odds below two percent. The season has been more competitive and fun than expected, but the fall from contention stings nonetheless. I am a reasonably logical person, but there is an irrational part of my brain that has spent most of the season expecting the Cardinals to make the playoffs. For most of the year, it felt like everything was breaking right. The Walker comeback story. Wetherholt became an instant star. The rotation was exceeding all reasonable expectations. There were problems, but a leaky bullpen and lack of a third baseman would surely not be enough to undermine a magical playoff run. Well, the aforementioned losing streak snapped me back to reality and motivated me to do a more objective check-in of how the team is performing relative to preseason expectations.
To do this, I will compare the January ZiPS projections, position by position, to the team’s actual production thus far. The ZiPS overview graphic is based on the Depth Charts projection at that point in time, so I will use that to reference the players’ expected playing time.
Catcher
Projected WAR: 2.8
Current WAR: 1.6
It will take a hot finish for the catching cohort to catch up to the preseason ZiPS projection. Depth Charts had pegged Pedro Pages for over half the catcher playing time with Herrera, Pozo, and Crooks slated for about 100 plate appearances each. Pages has underperformed slightly and Herrera’s poor defense has allowed him to accrue only 1.1 WAR at catcher despite a 129 wRC+ when behind the plate. The biggest driver of the miss is Crooks’ 0.1 WAR in 45 games.
You do have to give the Cardinals credit for sticking to the Herrera experiment all season. I do not have a developed enough eye for scouting catcher defense to say if he has improved throughout the year, but his season defensive stats leave much to be desired. My hope is that there is clear communication going into the offseason regarding Herrera’s defensive home in 2027. This will go a long way toward clarifying the catcher logjam. As far as the remainder of this season, it would be great to see Crooks finish strong with the bat. He has been difficult to watch at times, but with his track record of minor league performance, he still has plenty of upside to dream on.
First Base
Projected WAR: 1.9
Current WAR: 2.1
Our first “exceeds expectations” grade! Depth Charts properly pegged Alec Burleson as the primary first baseman, accruing most of the value to drive the solid 1.9 WAR projection. Gorman, Pozo, and Brendan Donovan were penciled in for 250 plate appearances at first as well. Burly has racked up 2.6 WAR to offset the -0.5 contributed by Blaze Jordan, Jose Fermin, and Ramon Urias.
I don’t think we have too much to learn about the first base situation for the remainder of the year. Burleson is established as one of the best hitters in baseball against righties. He has hit lefties better as the season has progressed, but most of that improvement is BABIP-driven, so he still looks like he could benefit from a strong platoon partner. We will have plenty of time to discuss if and how Burleson fits into the long-term plans, but regardless, he has increased his value substantially with his continued improvement.
Second Base
Projected WAR: 2.8
Current WAR: 4.4
Another huge win! And this one in spite of losing Brendan Donovan after the projections came out. Donovan was slated for the majority of the playing time at second base. In fact, Wetherholt was projected for only 70 plate appearances. Wetherholt has, of course, taken the majority of the second base playing time, accruing 4.2 WAR. Saggese, Torres, Urias, Prieto, and Fermin have all filled in occasionally and managed to hold serve with a collective 0.2 WAR.
The only drama that remains is whether Wetherholt can claim his rightful title of Rookie of the Year, but the Cardinals are set at the keystone for the next decade or so.
Shortstop
Projected WAR: 3.5
Current WAR: 2.0
Winn was projected for 90% of the shortstop playing time and is likely to fall a bit short due to his recent injury. This has been the second straight season of offensive decline for Winn, but his defense remains incredible enough to soften the blow. His underlying offensive metrics are in line with his career averages, if not a bit better, so I am not too worried about him moving forward. Still, another season without taking a step forward decreases the probability that he has another gear to his offensive game.
JJ Wetherholt has been the only other positive contributor at the position with 0.3 WAR while Saggese, Urias, Fermin, and Prieto have given back all that value and then some (-0.6 WAR) in just 35 plate appearances combined.
It would be great to see Winn come back from his injury and finish strong and then sign a long-term extension in the offseason.
Third Base
Projected WAR: 3.2
Current WAR: -0.1
No surprises here as we are all painfully aware of the hole at third base. The preseason projection had Wetherholt taking the majority of his reps at third base, so this is really where the Donovan-sized hole shows up. Gorman (0.5 WAR) and Blaze Jordan (0.3 WAR) have pitched in positive WAR contributions thanks to their solid defensive numbers, but Prieto, Fermin, Urias, and Torres have torpedoed any hope of cobbling together reasonable team-level performance with -0.9 WAR combined.
With Jordan’s injury, it looks like we could be in for Gorman’s last stand down the stretch. It is hard for me to imagine the Cardinals being willing to pay Gorman a second-year arbitration salary this offseason, but they have stuck with him this long, so you never know. Jordan has shown me enough that I would like to see him get an extended run to start next season while we wait for potential challengers from the minor leagues to emerge.
Left Field
Projected WAR: 2.6
Current WAR: 0.7
Left field has been yet another underperformance, but you can give the team a partial mulligan due to trades. The projections coming into the year were based on about half a season of Lars Nootbaar and 140 plate appearances from Donovan giving above-average production. With Nootbaar missing the first couple of months and being dealt, the position has been a complete revolving door with seven players getting at least 11 appearances. Fermin, Torres, Pereira, Nootbaar, and Church have combined for a solid 1.7 WAR, but truly terrifying performances from Saggese and Velazquez have given back more than half that value.
Joshua Baez is going through an adjustment period, but at least there is finally someone in place that has a real chance at being a long-term solution.
Center Field
Projected WAR: 2.3
Current WAR: 0.2
Another clunker… I had completely forgotten how solid Victor Scott’s projections were coming into the year. He was projected for the majority of the playing time with Lars Nootbaar and Nathan Church filling in the gaps. Nathan Church is a fun guy to root for and does have some tools, but he is a long shot to ever be a starting-caliber player on a true contender.
I still like Chase Davis as a potential delayed breakout lottery ticket, but he is certainly not someone you project as a starter. Josiah Ragsdale and Tai Peete are both getting center field time in Springfield but are likely at least a year away. Scott has been on a nice run in Memphis over the last month, so perhaps he will be given another chance in September. There are a lot of names who could step forward, but it is unclear if any of them will be able to hit enough to stick.
Right Field
Projected WAR: 0.4
Current WAR: 2.6
The second big win of the 2026 campaign courtesy of Jordan Walker. I don’t think anyone has forgotten how poorly Walker was projected coming into the year. His ZiPS projection was actually below replacement, so the only reason the position WAR was projected above zero was because Nootbaar and Church were expected to contribute above-replacement value in 30 games. Walker has posted 3.1 WAR, while his occasional backups have given back about half a win.
Designated Hitter
Projected WAR: 2.8
Current WAR: 0.6
The DH position has been a massive disappointment. Herrera has only managed 0.2 WAR while putting up a 100 wRC+ in his non-catching time. Gorman also snuck in and sabotaged the overall positional value for 15 games of -0.6 WAR “production.” The only things keeping the position positive overall are the production of Burleson and Walker in limited playing time and a red-hot seven-game stint from Nelson Velazquez with three home runs.
While the 0.6 WAR looks bad, it is important to put it into context. Because of the positional adjustment penalty, that total actually ranks 12th in all of baseball. If Herrera is relegated to DH only next season, he should still project as one of the best in baseball.
Starting Pitchers
Projected WAR: 9.6
Current WAR: 10.8
Outside of Liberatore’s underperformance and Richard Fitts’ injury, the starting rotation has been a bright spot for most of the year. Dustin May, Kyle Leahy, and Andre Pallante have already sailed past their full-season projected WAR totals and McGreevy still has a chance to get close with a strong finish.
Down the stretch, you really just want to see no more injuries. Quinn Mathews throwing strikes would be a nice added bonus if I get a second wish. The Cardinals will have impressive major league depth heading into next season with an absurd concentration of starting pitcher talent at Springfield and Memphis. Whether they can develop a true ace remains an open question, but the backbone of a great rotation is coming into focus.
Relief Pitchers
Projected WAR: 1.9
Current WAR: 0.2
The less said about the bullpen, the better… I remember being extremely confident that the bullpen would outdo the already bad 1.9 WAR projection, so this really just serves as another reminder that bullpens are impossible to predict. Luis Gastelum is on an incredible heater in his last nine games with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and only one run allowed. Perhaps Cade Winquest will be able to provide some added juice down the stretch, but regardless, we are likely to enter 2027 viewing the pen as a huge question mark.
For how well this season has gone, it is surprising how many positions have underperformed projections this year. Only three of the nine positions are likely to finish better than expected, and much of the overperformance from the rotation has been given back by the bullpen. That is how baseball goes, though: every Wetherholt and Walker breakout has to be accompanied by a disappearing center fielder or a burning bullpen. I would still absolutely take the results and development that the Cardinals have had relative to expectations. Finding star players is the hardest and most expensive thing for any franchise to do, and the Cardinals may have finally found two in Walker and Wetherholt.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - AUGUST 28: Yandy Díaz #2 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates after hitting a home run in the third inning against the San Diego Padres at Tropicana Field on August 28, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Yankees’ offense was up to its old tricks on Friday, mustering a mere solo shot by Paul Goldschmidt and three hits in total against the middling Patrick Sandoval and the Red Sox bullpen. They even had extra chances granted due to four walks, but still never came up with the big hit when runners were on. Thankfully, the superior part of the New York operation stood up, with Cam Schlittler firing 5.2 scoreless while Brent Headrick, Paul Blackburn, and David Bednar handled the rest. Cody Bellinger’s pivotal outfield assist to throw Ceddanne Rafaela out at the plate as the potential tying was the play of the game, and the Yankees won, 1-0. Now they must play two and ideally come up with more support for Carlos Rodón and Max Fried.
There was plenty of notable Junior Circuit activity on Friday night, so let’s get into it!
Tampa Bay Rays (80-54) 9, San Diego Padres (72-63) 4
Casey Mize has not had the best time since joining the Padres at the Trade Deadline, though tonight five of the seven runs scored against him were unearned in a sloppy fourth inning. After Yandy Díaz opened the scoring with a solo shot in the third, the Dads committed a pair of errors after Junior Caminero was hit by a pitch and Jonny DeLuca drew a walk, resulting in a run scoring and the bases loaded with one out. A wild pitch plated another, followed by a Jorge Mateo sac fly, and consecutive RBI singles by Taylor Walls and Díaz.
San Diego scored two each in the fifth and sixth to cut into that lead, Jackson Merrill crushing a two-run bomb in the sixth. However, the Rays kept the pressure on scoring one each in the fifth, sixth, and seventh. DeLuca added an RBI single in the fifth, Caminero an RBI single in the sixth, and Mullins a solo shot in the seventh to make sure the Padres always remained at arm’s length. The Rays become the first team in the AL to reach 80 wins (the Brewers, Dodgers, and Braves already got there in the NL), and maintain their four-game lead over the Yankees in the East.
Other Games
Chicago White Sox (71-63) 7, Minnesota Twins (64-71) 4
The promotion of top prospect Walker Jenkins wasn’t enough to lift the Twins over their AL Central rivals. There was a flurry of scoring early, Chicago plating four with two outs in the first on three straight singles by Miguel Vargas, Andrew Benintendi, and Braden Montgomery, capped off by a Colson Montgomery three-run bomb. The Twins responded with three of their own in the bottom half on a two-run homer by Brooks Lee and a solo shot by Kody Clemens before tying the game in the second on an RBI single from Lee after Trevor Larnach led off with a double.
Only the White Sox kept their foot on the accelerator. Benintendi added an RBI double in the third before a passed ball allowed another run to score in the fourth and a wild pitch the final run in the eighth. With the win, the White Sox extend their surprise lead atop the Central to three and a half games over Cleveland.
AL Wild Card Rock Fight
Toronto Blue Jays (66-70) 8, Seattle Mariners (64-71) 1
Both AL Cy Young frontrunners pitched on Friday and Dylan Cease matched Cam Schlittler stride for stride, allowing a run on four hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in six innings. George Springer went 4-for-4 with a home run and three runs scored. Kazuma Okamoto went 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBIs while Nathan Lukes also left the yard. Dominic Canzone’s solo shot in the first was the Mariners’ only run.
Houston Astros (68-67) 3, New York Mets (60-75) 1
Hunter Brown pitched his best start of the year, allowing a run on five hits and a walk while striking out 10 in 6.2 innings. The Astros scored all their runs in the sixth, Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, and Jose Altuce drawing three straight walks before Daulton Varsho and Yainer Diaz cleared the bases with a pair of singles. This was after Carson Benge gave the Mets the lead with an RBI double the inning prior. Houston is two games ahead of Texas in the AL West, plus four up on fading Seattle.
Kansas City Royals (61-75) 3, Cleveland Guardians (68-67) 0
Michael Wacha was simply untouchable, twirling eight scoreless innings allowing four hits an no walks while striking out 10. Salvador Perez opened the scoring in the fifth with an RBI groundout. Carter Jensen gave the Royals some late insurance with a two-run blast in the ninth.
Brewers rookie Logan Henderson logged one of the best starts of his young career, allowing a run on one hit and no walks with seven strikeouts in seven innings, that lone hit a Danny Jansen solo shot in the third. While the Rangers would manage just one more hit on the contest, the Brewers ended with 14. Christian Yelich went 3-for-5 with an RBI double, William Contreras 2-for-4 with three RBIs, and Jake Bauers 2-for-2 with three walks.
Baltimore Orioles (66-69) 4, The Athletics (53-82) 3
A’s starter Jacob Lopez was at fault for both Orioles runs in the second, committing an error after a HBP, walk, and single. The Athletics tied it up on a Jonah Heim solo shot in the seventh and Lawrence Butler RBI single in the eighth. Both teams had runners thrown out at home meaning this one went to extras. The O’s scored two in the top of the tenth on two-out singles by Coby Mayo and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to win it.
How about an overall picture of the hectic Wild Card race?
CLEVELAND, OHIO - AUGUST 28: Relief pitcher Craig Yoho #23 of the Cleveland Guardians throws out Josh Rojas #40 of the Kansas City Royals on a sacrifice bunt during the eighth inning at Progressive Field on August 28, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I am repeating some things to myself.
Winning streaks don’t last forever.
The Royals haven’t lost 75 games by accident.
Michael Wacha cannot pitch again tonight.
The Guardians lost 3-0 to the Royals yesterday as Jakhob covered here. They got shutout again. Craig Yoho pitched 1 and 2/3rds scoreless then hung a cutter and gave up a two-run homer. Angel Genao got up 2-0 in the count with the bases loaded then topped a good pitch to hit back to the pitcher to end the game. Should someone else have pitched the 9th for Yoho? I don’t know. Probably he should have executed that last pitch better. Should Patrick Bailey have hit with Genao saved to bat for Halpin? I don’t know. Bailey getting two hits against Wacha is admirable but doesn’t mean he is a good hitter.
They need to flush this one quickly and get after it this afternoon. Griffin needs his best performance in a Guardians uniform.
AROIND MLB:
Tigers, Rangers, Twins lost. White Sox, Astros, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Mariners won. Guardians still have a 2 game lead in the Wildcard race.
PITTSBURGH, PA - JULY 07: Hurston Waldrep #64 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on July 7, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Atlanta Braves received some unfortunate news on the pitching front Friday, as two starting pitchers will be undergoing surgery. Right-hander Hurston Waldrep will undergo Tommy John surgery, requiring him to miss all of the 2027 season. Fellow righty Spencer Schwellenbach will undergo surgery on the same elbow he fractured last year. There has not yet been a timetable for his return.
Hurston Waldrep will have Tommy John surgery and Spencer Schwellenbach will have surgery to repair the same elbow fracture he suffered last year. The Braves still aren’t saying Strider’s season is done. But that has been the assumption since June
Waldrep last appeared in the majors in early July before he was optioned to the Gwinnett Stripers. Schwellenbach has yet to make his 2026 debut, and it will likely be some time before he is on the mound again.
The Atlanta pitching staff continues to take hit after hit, but hopefully all goes well on the recovery front for Waldrep and Schwelly.
More Braves News:
The Braves kicked off the series against the Colorado Rockies with a 6-4 win.
Luis Guanipa homered for the Rome Emperors on Thursday. More in the minor league recap.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - AUGUST 26: Roki Sasaki #11 of the Los Angeles Dodgers is pulled from the game due to an injury during the fourth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on August 26, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Kiley McDaniel at ESPN this week unveiled updated ranking of MLB farm systems, based on a monetary calculation of future value of every prospect. The Dodgers come in at a virtual tie for second-best system, along with the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays:
Their outfield depth was mentioned a lot leading up to the trade, and Zyhir Hope was dealt from that surplus, but there are still eight outfielders in their top 15 prospects along with two third basemen who might end up moving to a corner outfield spot.
On the pitching side, the rise of Christian Zazueta and Zach Root make up for dealing River Ryan and seeing Jackson Ferris take a step back this season.
Dodgers minor league infielder Daniel Mielcarek on Thursday was named an Arizona Complex League All-Star at second base after the 20-year-old hit .292/.428/.525 with seven home runs, seven doubles, a 135 wRC+, 18.4-percent walk rate and 36.2-percent strikeout rate in 42 games this season. Signed out of the Dominican Republic for $400,000 in 2023, the 6’3 Mielcarek this season played 21 games at second base, 10 games at shortstop, one game apiece at third base and left field, plus nine starts as designated hitter.
Jackson Merrill
Randy Arozarena
Bryce Harper
