Category: MLB

The 2026 season has been a big fat dud for the Kansas City Royals, a team that had designs on competing in what looks like a weak Central Division. With the August 3 trade deadline soon approaching, the Royals will almost certainly be sellers. The question is – what path will they take? General manager J.J. Picollo has said the team will be “open-minded to anything,” but will the team look at a modest sell-off of expiring contracts, a more aggressive re-tool, or will they combine selling with buying?

Here’s what each approach would look like, and what it would mean for the future of the franchise.

The obvious moves

Any team out of contention is going to look to move players on expiring contracts. The Royals have a few candidates.

• John Schreiber has been fairly effective this year, and relievers are always in demand at the trade deadline. He has been a righty-killer – they’ve hit just .178 against him – but he has been hittable to lefties.
• Lane Thomas hasn’t been great, but he’s a solid right-handed bat who has hit .261/.366/.432 against lefties. Contenders could view him as a nice complement to their lineup.
• Starling Marte is a good clubhouse guy and has some value as a bench option, but the return is going to be very light for a 37-year-old with a 81 OPS+.
• Matt Strahm would have been a good trade chip except he has given up 10 home runs in 34.2 innings with a 6.75 ERA. Unless some team thinks they can fix him quickly, I wouldn’t count on a suitor.
• Kris Bubic is throwing and expected to return in August, but his injury and lack of availability will considerably diminish his trade value.
• Carlos Estévez and Jonathan India are unmovable due to injury and ineffectiveness.

Moving any of these players other than Bubic is a no-brainer, to get some sort of compensation for a player that won’t be under contract by November.

Bubic is a different case in that the Royals could risk offering him a Qualifying Offer to bring him back next year on a one-year deal. Plus it is very difficult to say what the trade value is for a guy with his injury history who is currently out. Most likely his trade value is quite low, although you could argue that they should move him for anything they can get. Had he returned before the deadline and established his health in a few outings, it would be a different story. The Royals seem to be snakebit historically in having valuable trade pieces get injured before the deadline!

The retool

The problem with just trading the rentals is that teams don’t give up a lot for two months of service unless it is for an elite talent. Controllable years have value, and if the Royals are serious about adding talent to contend in the future, they may have to part with players that are under club control beyond this year.

Jeff Passan of ESPN suggested the Royals retool, writing that “Most of their top prospects are at the lower levels, so focusing on near major-league-ready talent — ones who will be there when the Royals move into their new stadium in 2030 or ’31 — makes sense.”

That means holding on to core players – Bobby Witt Jr., Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen – but being willing to deal players who will be eligible for free agency in a year or two. The most likely candidates are pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. The Royals opted not to trade Lugo a year ago, instead signing him to an extension that will pay him $20 million next year, with a vesting option for 2028. The 36-year-old has had mixed results since signing the extension, and the Royals may want to free up financial flexibility and avoid age catching up with him.

Wacha has been excellent this year, earning an All-Star appearance, and he is under a very club-friendly contract that will pay him $14 million next year with a $14 million club option for 2028. But if the Royals want to replenish the young talent in the organization, they may need to move the veteran while his value is still high. Wacha has been a steady contributor the last few years, but is 35 years old, and Father Time catches up to everyone.

Picollo seems open to moving the veterans, but with some reservations, saying “we have to be very, very pointed on what we want to get out of any one of those two. And it’s also, they made a commitment to us, and that’s big. And I think that’s important to the morale of the team.”

A retool could involve trading younger players as well. Daniel Lynch IV is having a breakout season in the bullpen, but the team could look to move him while his value is high. Michael Massey and Nick Loftin have also emerged as quality bats, but having both on the roster may be redundant, leaving one of them as a trade candidate. Vinnie Pasquantino could also become available if the team wants to get Caglianone back to first base, although his offensive struggles and recurring wrist injuries make a deal less likely.

Selling and buying

The Royals are coming off back-to-back winning seasons, and even though they missed the playoffs last year, they seemed to think they were on the right track. Although this year has been a disaster, the Royals have indicated they think the nucleus of this team can get back to contention.

“You all know the core we have on this club that’s going to be back in the coming years,” Picollo told reporters last week. “It’s a really good starting point. So if we can add to the roster and get our roster better, that will be the objective.”

I would not rule out the Royals actually adding to the roster at the deadline, despite their place in the standings. They wouldn’t be interested in short-term players, but those that can help in 2027 and beyond. What would that look like? Perhaps they trade away Michael Wacha, but acquire a younger pitcher with some promise to take his place in the rotation. They trade away a short-term bat like Lane Thomas, but also look to acquire a young outfielder with potential in a separate deal.

The farm system has made great strides this summer, and the team could look to cash some of those chips in now to position the team back into possible contention for next year. They know they have a window with Bobby Witt Jr. they need to maximize, and they need to build a good team around him to have a chance at a postseason run.

What about a full-blown rebuild?

Passan writes that the Royals “can’t totally tear things down, not with Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia locked up long term.”

But what if even Bobby is not off-limits?

At the Athletic, Red Sox beat writer Jen McCaffrey considers what it would take for Boston to acquire the All-Star shortstop, and suggests a starting point of outfielder Roman Anthony, pitcher Payton Tolle, top shortstop prospect Franklin Arias (#7 overall in MLB Pipeline’s list), and pitching prospect Anthony Eyanson (#49).

Sure, Bobby Witt Jr. signed a long-term deal with the club, but remember he has an opt out after the 2030 season. And the Royals may want to move him before that, when his salary rises $30 million in 2028. You could get a lot of talent for him. Anthony was third in Rookie of the Year voting last year, Tolle has been terrific this year at the MLB level, and Arias and Eyanson are both top prospects in baseball that could be in the big leagues in a year or two.

But it ain’t gonna happen.

Players like Bobby Witt Jr. are once-in-a-generation talents that don’t come around all the time. Prospects are great, but they often fail. Trading Witt for four young players – even highly rated ones – is still trading 80 cents on the dollar. Plus the team is trying to build support for public financing for a new stadium – dealing your franchise player is not conducive to that goal.

The Royals aren’t deciding whether to buy or sell. They’re deciding how aggressively to reshape the roster. Trading the expiring contracts is the easy part. The harder question is whether Picollo is willing to sacrifice good players today to build a better team in 2027 and beyond, or whether he believes this core simply needs a few tweaks to get back into contention. The next few days will reveal just how much faith the front office still has in this roster.

Left-hander Foster Griffin is having a really good year for the Washington Nationals.

He’s 12-2 in 21 starts with a 2.76 ERA, 1.032 WHIP and only 28 walks and 113 strikeouts in 124 innings, and he was named to the National League All-Star team.

Can I stop for a minute and say “I told you so”?

Because I did tell you that the Cubs should have signed Griffin as a free agent, coming back from three years in NPB, in an article posted here last November 21.

What I wrote back then:

In three seasons in NPB, Griffin posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 54 games covering 315.2 innings, with 78 walks and 318 strikeouts, both good ratios, and allowed just 18 home runs in that time.

This isn’t the sort of signing that would make big waves, or solve any large problem with the Cubs rotation. Nevertheless, I think the results Griffin has had in NPB could translate pretty well to MLB.

In fact, that is exactly what has happened. Griffin’s numbers in MLB this year pretty well match those NPB numbers. And as I noted in the article, the Cubs knew Griffin well as they had faced him in an exhibition game against the Yomiuri Giants during their trip to Japan in March 2025.

The Nationals signed Griffin to a one-year deal for $5.5 million. That would have been a lot better use of that money than, say, signing Phil Maton.

Anyway.

The Nats are on the fringes of the wild-card race, currently tied with the Pirates, one game behind the Diamondbacks for the National League’s last wild card spot. So perhaps they’d be willing to do what some are terming “soft selling.”

Griffin would look good in the Cubs rotation for the rest of the year and would not be expensive. He turned 31 on Monday. He’s been healthy and productive, throwing at least six innings in 12 of his 21 starts.

Would you trade Kevin Alcántara to the Nationals for Griffin? I would. Maybe throw in an A-ball pitching lottery ticket.

What say you?

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Just over half of MLB players believe the league is doing enough to protect the game from players teaming up with gamblers, according to a survey conducted by The Athletic.

Key Takeaways

• Eighteen players said MLB isn't doing enough.
  
  
• One player said the league was hypocritical for constantly promoting gambling.
  
  
• Others believe the onus should be on the players themselves.

MLB is only one year removed from the scandal that involved Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz. Both were suspended after being accused of manipulating pitches for the benefit of sports bettors in cases that are still being fought in court. 

“It takes plain stupidity to do that,” an NL reliever told The Athletic. “You can’t fix stupid.”

MLB’s sports betting rules are straightforward: Wagering on baseball games at any level is not allowed. Team personnel and league employees also cannot share privileged information with sports bettors or fix their performances so that associates can profit at sportsbooks.

Similar rules exist in other professional and amateur sports federations. But despite that, cases of illegal betting have proliferated.

The Athletic’s poll, conducted under the veil of anonymity from February to May 2026, asked players if they believed MLB has done enough to protect games from interference by sports bettors. Fifty-five of the 100 players surveyed answered "Yes," while 27 were unsure or had no opinion and 18 said no.

“It’s kind of like PEDs,” said an AL Central position player. “It’s well-known that you shouldn’t be doing that, so if you do it, I feel like that’s your decision rather than a lack of understanding.”

An NL pitcher suggested that any ambiguity or uncertainty about the league’s rules and enforcement will disappear by the seriousness with which it approached the Guardians pitchers' situation.

“The whole deal in Cleveland seems like a pretty good start,” the player said. “They got rid of one of the better players in baseball, which tells you, ‘We don’t allow this for anybody.’”

Players express concern

While the majority of the respondents said MLB has done enough, a smaller portion questioned the league’s integrity for partnering with U.S. sports betting companies.

“I think it’s a pretty hypocritical thing to take the stance they do on gambling and put such a negative stigma around players gambling ... while also promoting DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and those things,” said an NL hitter, per The Athletic. “It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.”

“It’s in every stadium,” an AL pitcher added. “There’s f---ing ads everywhere - BetMGM, Bet Hard Rock, all this s---. There’s nothing saying, ‘Don’t do it.’ It would be too easy. We already saw it.”

Another player went so far as to say that MLB is “promoting (sports betting) rather than helping players.”

MLB signed its first gambling partnership with MGM Resorts International in November 2018, just over six months after the practice was legalized federally. The league currently maintains partnerships with FanDuel, DraftKings, and MGM Resorts/BetMGM.

Team entities, including stadiums, broadcast networks, and much more, are also eligible to partner with gambling companies.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Columbus Clippers 6, Toledo Mud Hens 4

Clippers improve to 53-49

Columbus jumped out to an early 4-0 lead then held on to preserve the victory Tuesday. Leading the way was Ralphy Velazquez, who snapped out of a short funk by going 2-fo-4 with a massive 415-foot three-run home run in the first inning while also doubling.

In his first game back in Columbus, Daniel Schneemann was perfect at the plate, going 1-for-1 with three walks. Cooper Ingle went 2-for-5 and Angel Genao went 1-for-3 with a walk while Kody Huff homered and George Valera doubled.

Starting pitcher Rorik Maltrud danced around four walks to toss 4.1 innings while allowing one run on three hits with four strikeouts.

All three relievers Steven Perez, Carlos Hernandez and Cody Heuer allowed one run in their appearances.

Akron RubberDucks 12, Erie SeaWolves 3

RubberDucks improve to 46-50

Akron’s offense erupted on Tuesday, scoring 12 runs on a whopping 19 hits with everyone getting in on the action.

Nolan Schubart led the way, going 2-for-5 with a mammoth home run, a double and a walk.

Also homering was Ryan Cesarini, who went 2-for-5 with a walk; and Maick Collado, who went 2-for-5.

Jaison Chourio went 2-for-6 with a double, Dean Curley went 3-for-5 with two doubles, Aaron Walton went 2-for-3 with a double and a walk and Alex Mooney went 2-for-5.

The terrific offense backed up the pitching staff in a semi-bullpen game. Sean Matson allowed three runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings. Jack Jasiak was perfect in 1.2 frames with three strikeouts. Dylan DeLucia tossed 2.0 scoreless, hitless innings, Kendeglys Virguez’s Double-A debut saw him strike out the side in a perfect inning and Zane Morehouse closed out the win with a 1-2-3 ninth inning.

Lake County Captains 7, South Bend Cubs 5

Captains improve to 53-40

The bottom of the batting order did most of the damage in this one, but people definitely will be talking about Juneiker Caceres’ first High-A homer, a majestic shot in the third inning. He might be the team’s top overall prospect soon if he keeps this up.

Jeffrey Mercedes had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a double while Esteban Gonzalez was perfect at the plate, going 2-for-2 with a home run and two walks.

Welby Francisca went 1-for-3 with a three-run home run and a hit by pitch and Anthony Martinez went 1-for-2 with two walks.

Starting pitcher Jacob Zibin allowed four runs (two earned) on three hits with six strikeouts and two walks in 5.0 innings.Logan McGuire picked up the save with a scoreless ninth inning.

Hill City Howlers 4, Fayetteville Woodpeckers 10

Howlers fall to 42-55

Catching prospect Reiner Herrera had a sensational game, going 2-for-3 with a home run, a double and a walk. Also standing out was Jonathan Martinez, who went 2-for-3 with a walk and two stolen bases. No one else reached base safely twice, although Alejandro Blasco had a hit in one of his two plate appearances before leaving the game in his full-season debut.

Starting pitcher Alejandro Rivera allowed five runs on five hits with one walk and no strikeouts in 5.0 innings in what also was his full-season debut.

Pitching development has been the Red Sox’s bread and butter under Craig Breslow. Since Breslow took over, the organization has invested heavily in the pitching pipeline. In his first two drafts, 28 of the team’s 41 picks were spent on pitchers — 29 if you count two-way player Conrad Cason. At the major league level, Hunter Dobbins, Richard Fitts, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and Jake Bennett have all contributed after spending time in the system.

This season, the draft was more balanced, but several pitchers were still selected in the middle and later rounds. One of them was left-hander Brett Lanman out of Abilene Christian University, selected in the fifth round. Lanman, like many of the pitchers acquired by Breslow during his tenure as Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer, is huge. He’s listed at 6-5, 230 pounds, and uses that frame to extend down the mound and help his pitches play up. While no two pitchers are the same, he’s excited to get to an organization with a recent track record of getting young arms to the major leagues.

 “I’m ready to get to work, cause these guys know what they’re talking about,” Lanman said. “They’ve developed these guys, and they’re in the big leagues. It’s like, man, they know, they know what it takes to get a left-handed pitcher into the big leagues pretty quickly.”

Draft picks, to an extent, are lottery tickets. It’s incredibly rare for a draft pick to enter the league as a major league-level talent. Paul Skeneses (Skenesi? Skenes?) don’t grow on trees, and if they did, they’d all be first-round picks. Lanman, as a fifth-round pick, is far from a finished product. If he were, his ERA in his final season at ACU likely would have been lower than 5.35. The Red Sox didn’t select the lefty because of his college results. They picked him because of who they believe he can become.

Potential is based on traits, such as being huge and left-handed. Lanman is both huge (6-5, 230) and left-handed. He also has a low release point and plus extension, creating a flat attack angle for his fastball. Most starting pitchers who succeed have a fastball as the foundation. Lanman knows that his heater is what’s brought him this far, and that’s what the Red Sox will want to build upon.

 “I’m gonna attack you with my fastball, and my fastball’s my best pitch. That’s pretty much why I’m here right now in Florida with the Red Sox is my fastball,” Lanman said.

Right now, he averages about 92 mph and has topped out at 95 mph. Many pitchers who enter the Red Sox organization see immediate velocity gains. The team typically sends pitchers to the complex in Florida after the draft and only has them appear in games with a minor league affiliate the following season. During that time away from competitive action, they’ve been able to help pitchers add velocity.

“I definitely got more [velocity] in me. I just need someone to help me unlock that, which is hopefully the right organization here … Like I said, they’ve proven it in the past, so why not me? Add another name to that list,” Lanman said.

Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and Jake Bennett are all left-handed pitchers who made significant strides under the current front office. It’s looked different for each of them. Tolle flew through the minor leagues, while Bennett made the jump from Triple-A to the major leagues after a short time in the system. Regardless, the recent track record of developing pitchers is strong. For Lanman, that likely comes in the form of adding velocity and finding secondary pitches to complement his heater.

He currently throws a cutter, curveball, and changeup, though none of his secondary pitches are particularly polished. He’s toyed with Trackman data and looked into analytics for himself in college, but is open to whatever ideas the coaches want to try, citing their physics and biomechanics aptitude.

“My goal here is to just soak everything in, and if they want to try something, I’m gonna say ‘let’s do it,’ and go for it,” Lanman said. “I trust them. They’re very credible. They’ve done it in the past … whatever they think will get me to that level, I’m gonna do it.”

The fifth-round draft pick is far from a lock to contribute at the major league level. No draft pick is. He’s built in the archetype that the Red Sox have had success developing, though, and has a chance to be the next pitcher to make headlines in the minor league system.

The biggest weakness with the 2026 Yankees is the catching position; that much is painfully obvious. Even after a recent uptick in production from the platoon and Ali Sánchez’s heroics on Monday night, Yankees’ catchers entered Tuesday’s game with a putrid 58 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR at the position, ranking 28th and 24th in all of baseball, respectively.

It’s a non-negotiable at the upcoming trade deadline to get another bat, and even if it seems like the Hunter Goodmans and the (now-injured) Shea Langeliers of the world are highly improbable, the general consensus among baseball analysts is that the Yankees will acquire a catcher of some sort to try and resuscitate a highly unproductive room. Such a trade could happen by the time this is published!

But as we wait for that hopeful addition to don the pinstripes, there’s something that needs to be said about the current room that gets lost in the offensive black hole. Despite the clear need for an offensive upgrade, there is still value in the incumbent catcher’s defensive abilities. The one position on the diamond where subpar offense has always been tolerated is catcher, so the Yankees being tied for third in Fielding Run Value at least gives them a higher floor with how awful the production has been offensively.

All three of their catchers are good framers. Austin Wells has always been highly regarded for his defense, and it tracks with +4 Framing Runs and +3 FRV, both well-above-average numbers. While his hitting regression has been mind-boggling to say the least, he remains a 90th-percentile framer, something that is still valuable even with ABS. He is the league’s best framer on pitches below the zone, generating +6 Framing Runs and stealing a bevy of strikes on offspeed and breaking balls.

J.C. Escarra and Sánchez have both been productive as well in their backup roles, but it’s been especially surprising to see Sánchez produce +4 Framing Runs of his own, even being a more valuable framer in much less playing time than Wells, according to FanGraphs. Sánchez has more than doubled his career FRV in one-third of his career playing time.

And while ABS has slightly reduced the value of framing because of the ability to overturn pitches, two of the three Yankees’ catchers are above average in ABS. Of the 64 catchers who have made at least 20 challenges, Wells and Escarra are tied for 23rd at 63%. In terms of net overturns over expected, Wells is 14th at +8.0.

Even as it’s gained much more importance in recent years, framing is just one small part of catcher defense. All three Yankees’ catchers have been elite blockers, posting a +9 Blocking Above Average as a team, fourth in baseball. On a team that has two of the best splitters in baseball as high-leverage arms, this is extremely important to prevent passed balls and wild pitches. Only two teams have fewer PB+WP than the Yankees’ 26, despite their estimated count being a lot higher.

This is the specialty of Escarra, who’s managed to be +4 in just 216 innings. On a rate basis, only Cal Raleigh, Alejandro Kirk, and Sebastian Rivero of the Angels have been better. When he was in the bigs, he frequently smothered buried pitches in front of the plate as few have.

While all this blocking and framing is supported by in-depth Baseball Savant statistics, there are two aspects on the defensive end that the catching trio has also thrived at that don’t require going beyond basic box scores. Just look at controlling the run game, where even though the Yankees have a mediocre rate of 22 percent of catching base stealers, they’ve surrendered just 54 stolen bases, tied for the third-fewest in baseball.

Stolen bases are not necessarily on the catcher, nor are they exclusively on the pitcher, but baserunners will be more ambitious if you are not a threat to throw them out, even if there isn’t a Marcus Stroman-Jose Trevino duo that’s practically begging you to do so. It’s an organizational thing, and you bet that the coaching staff has drilled into these pitchers and catchers to respect the run game. The Yankees are fourth in MLB in pickoffs with 12 and have been one of the best teams in preventing stolen bases since 2025.

At the end of the day, though, the most important job of a catcher is calling a game and their chemistry with the pitchers. As much as their offense has struggled, they’ve been the heart of one of the league’s best pitching staffs and it can’t be too casually dismissed that Yankees pitchers throughout the staff rave about Wells’ game-calling ability. The risk of adding a catcher in-season is the lack of a runway for said catcher to develop that chemistry with all 13 pitchers he’ll need to work with on a deep playoff run.

For all that he’s struggled with his bat, having Wells as your backup, with Sánchez and Escarra waiting in the wings, would be a big plus for this team.

Detroit Tigers (51-56) vs. Baltimore Orioles (52-56)

Time/Place: 1:10 p.m., Comerica Park
SB Nation Site:Camden Chat
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup: LHP Tarik Skubal (7-5, 2.70 ERA) vs. LHP Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.17 ERA)

Player	G	IP	K%	BB%	GB%	FIP	fWAR
Skubal	15	90.0	31.5	3.7	45.6	2.67	2.6
Rogers	19	103.2	19.1	7.4	38.3	3.71	2.2

Tarik Skubal takes the mound 🙂‍↕️

⚾️ 1:10 PM ET
📺 @WatchDSN
📻 @971theticketxyt
🏟️ Comerica Park pic.twitter.com/NAIDOCXkZd

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) July 29, 2026

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It was a 1-2 profitable day yesterday thanks to Kyle Stowers' lone dinger in a 1-0 win. Now I turn the page to Wednesday and navigate an afternoon schedule loaded with fadable arms, which is great news for dingers and MLB player props. 

Jeremy Pena is checking every single box today vs. Grayson Rodriguez, while the San Diego rotation is a joke, giving value on Colorado lefty bats if Griffin Canning gets paraded out today.

These are my favorite home run picks for Wednesday, July 29.

MLB home run props for today

Home run prediction: Jeremy Pena (+572)

Every Wednesday home run card needs a Houston bat or two.

Grayson Rodriguez might be making his final start for a while, as he has been getting pummeled while trying to pitch through shoulder and back issues.

His expected metrics back up the ugly ERA and FIP, and only one qualified starter has allowed a higher HardHit% this season. He gets just 29% of his outs on the ground, owns the 13th-worst BlastContact% in baseball, and isn't missing bats either — with only six strikeouts over his last 13+ innings.

Lefties have done the most damage against Rodriguez this year, but his splits have been much more even since 2024, so I don't have to force a left-handed bat here.

Jeremy Pena should get five plate appearances out of the leadoff spot and might be the hottest home run hitter in baseball since the break.

The right-hander has launched five homers over his last eight games, and with Yordan Alvarez priced below +200 today, this +572 number on Pena looks like a steal. Everything checks the boxes here: matchup, setting, form, and price.

I'm playing this home run down to +450.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, Space City Home Network

Home run prediction: Mickey Moniak (+367)

I need a left-handed Colorado bat against Griffin Canning, who has surrendered 11 of his 12 home runs to left-handed hitters while allowing them to post a 1.004 OPS.

He is one of my favorite pitchers to fade today, ranking seventh-worst among qualified starters in HardHit% while sitting in the bottom 50 in HR/9, HR/FB, and BlastContact%.

Canning has been working in a bulk role, and the writing might be on the wall given how much he has struggled this season. Even if San Diego opens with another arm, it should still be Canning handling the bulk of the innings.

Mickey Moniak projects as the Rockies' second-most likely hitter to go deep today behind Hunter Goodman (+280). Moniak doesn't walk much, but he takes aggressive hacks with a 74.7 mph bat speed that ranks second on the club.

He also crushes right-handed pitching, posting a .952 OPS with 15 of his 17 home runs coming against righties. He also likely avoids San Diego's best left-handed reliever, as Adrian Morejon threw 32 pitches yesterday.

The Padres are in a tough spot with their pitching staff, and the Rockies have a chance to jump on one of the worst starter ERAs in baseball.

I make the fair price closer to +325.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Padres.TV, Rockies.TV

Home run prediction: Willi Castro (+600)

I'm grabbing another Rockies bat at a monster price with Willi Castro at +600.

The Padres could be cycling through plenty of arms today, and Castro has already gone deep in back-to-back games while launching four homers since the All-Star break.

Most of his power has come against RHP, which is great news if he gets the matchup with Griffin Canning.

I already have some Mickey Moniak shares, but Castro at this number might be my favorite value. He ranks second on the team in slugging over the last two weeks and has matched Hunter Goodman with the same number of home runs during that stretch.

His swing speed doesn't match Goodman's, but Castro's 17.3% BlastContact% leads the team over the last two weeks.

I don't see how this price should be much longer than Moniak's, and I'd play this home run down to +500.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Padres.TV, Rockies.TV

Best home run combo for July 29

Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It's an all-day baseball Wednesday with a ton of strikeout and MLB player props to comb through. There is no shortage of edges and angles on the bump today.

Grayson Rodriguez is on my all-time fade list. Casey Legumina might not go more than an inning, and Davis Martin has lost his K stuff.

These are my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29.

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Strikeout prop: Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125)

Five strikeouts? Grayson Rodriguez has reached four punchouts just once over his last six starts. He is fighting to keep his rotation spot, and only one other MLB starter has a worse HardHit% than the right-hander. He might be the worst starter on the slate, and that says something with Zack Littell also taking the mound today.

The velocity is trending the wrong way as Rodriguez battles through back and shoulder injuries, and all four of his pitches are getting hit hard with an average exit velocity of 88 mph or higher. His best swing-and-miss pitch is the slider, but he throws it only 10% of the time, and hitters are slugging .579 against it. His changeup can generate whiffs, but the spin rate has dropped in back-to-back starts.

The biggest concern is the leash. Rodriguez has been hit so hard that a 12-out outing could be the ceiling today. He has gone beyond 12 outs just twice over his last six starts and shouldn't be sniffing 90 pitches.

It's a little juice, but this is a massive number for a pitcher who looks cooked. I don't hate the Under 3.5 strikeouts at plus money either. I'm playing this to -135/-140.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, Space City Home Network. 

Strikeout prop: Casey Legumina Under 1.5 strikeouts (+125)

Casey Legumina is a right-handed opener who will likely turn things over to lefty Ian Seymour. He threw 40 pitches and recorded six outs in his last outing vs. Toronto, but that came against a Jays lineup featuring eight right-handed bats.

The Texas Rangers should present a much different challenge, with a projected lineup that goes L, R, R, L, L, R, L, L, and R. That gives the Tampa Bay Rays plenty of opportunities to get to the lefty Seymour early and limits the chances of Legumina seeing a full second inning.

With just 31 strikeouts over 43+ innings, Legumina is not a strikeout-per-inning arm, and there is a strong chance he works just one inning today, which has been the norm in most of his opener appearances.

It's a sweaty prop because opener strikeout markets are volatile, but THE BAT projects just 28 pitches and 1.5 strikeouts, making the fair price shorter than -100. If you can't find the K total right away, wait closer to game time, as these markets often reappear once books adjust.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: One National or Two local

Strikeout prop: Davis Martin Under 4.5 strikeouts (+125)

Davis Martin was shelled for nine runs and three home runs a month ago when he faced this New York Yankees lineup, but he still managed only four strikeouts. Since then, the surface numbers haven't been terrible, but the strikeouts have disappeared with just 17 punchouts over his last 29+ innings. He has also benefited from facing some bottom-tier offenses during that stretch.

Today, he is projected for a mid-80s pitch count, but I'm fading the projections that are leaning toward the Over. The market is moving the other way, and the leash remains the biggest concern.

Martin's fastball velocity has been trending down since May, and he is outperforming his expected metrics. This was a pitcher who posted just a 6.56 K/9 over 140 innings last season, and the workload could be starting to catch up as his strikeout rate continues to slide.

Betting Yankee Under Ks is always a sweat, but like Anthony Kay yesterday, these plus-money prices on short-leash pitchers with workload concerns are worth attacking. I'm playing the Under 4.5.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Amazon Prime Video

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

As any college student knows full well, there's no real incentive to get to work until an imminent deadline is staring you in the face.

Major League Baseball GMs seem to have perfected that approach this season with rumors by far outweighing actual deals as the 6 p.m. ET witching hour on Aug. 3 approaches.

Of course, the silence could be broken at any time with one trade acting as the catalyst for many others in succession.

While there's a temporary lull in the action, let's go division-by-division in order of the standings (through games of Tuesday, July 28) and see which teams are likely to be buyers and which ones will be sellers.

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays

Could the miserly Rays front office actually make a move that adds payroll? Their new stadium deal has hit a snag, so probably not. But the front office is nothing if not creative, especially when a No. 1 seed in the AL is at stake.

• Verdict: Buyer

New York Yankees

The Yanks have several well-documented holes that need filling, and it's a two-team race for the league's best record. The question is whether they have the trade chips to acquire anyone who can truly help. Get well soon, Aaron Judge.

• Verdict: Buyer

Boston Red Sox

Their initial foray into the trade wars turned out miserably when they lost Curtis Mead to a broken wrist after only two at-bats. But their recent 15-game winning streak has made believers in Boston. So where to find another infielder?

• Verdict: Buyer

Baltimore Orioles

Four games under .500 and behind four teams for the third wild-card spot, the O's path isn't promising. OF Taylor Ward would be a hot commodity if they made him available. But they've also been one of the hottest teams since the All-Star break.

• Verdict: Standing pat

Toronto Blue Jays

So much disappointment. So many expiring contracts. Kevin Gausman, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Shane Bieber ... Maybe it is time for a reset, despite being just two outs away from a World Series title last year.

• Verdict: Seller

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

MLB's biggest surprise of 2026 has a chance to go from worst to first. But the biggest mistake in a rebuild is thinking you've arrived before you're actually there. At 55-51, there's no reason to mortgage any of the franchise's future for a quick temporary fix.

• Verdict: Standing pat

Cleveland Guardians

They just acquired Jose Ramirez from the injured list. There's your deadline deal. What, you want more? Hahahaha.

• Verdict: Standing pat

Minnesota Twins

The Twins could probably name their price for Ryan Jeffers with so many playoff contenders looking to acquire a catcher. Yet they sit at .500, two games out of first place. For a team that wasn't supposed to contend this season anyway, the Twins are playing with house money.

• Verdict: Buyer AND seller

Detroit Tigers

Truth be told, the Tigers have the most talented roster in the division and could leapfrog everyone with two months to play. Their direction comes down to what other teams are willing to pay for ace Tarik Skubal. If the best offers don't come in until right before the deadline, it doesn't give team president Scott Harris much time to pivot.

• Verdict: Buyer OR seller

Kansas City Royals

It likely won't take much for needy contenders to acquire outfielders Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins. The Royals would also part with veteran starters Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo if they were able to resolve the money remaining on their contracts.

• Verdict: Seller

AL West

Texas Rangers

They're in first place and about to get starting shortstop Corey Seager back from the injured list. So why aren't we hearing more about the Rangers' trade options? Probably because their shallow farm system doesn't leave them with much to offer. Adding some relief help may be the best they can do.

• Verdict: Standing pat

Houston Astros

GM Dana Brown has already said the Astros will be buyers at the deadline so we'll take him at his word. How much they'll buy is a different story. A lefty-hitting outfielder tops the wish list, but payroll concerns may force them to shed salary at the same time.

• Verdict: Buyer AND seller

Seattle Mariners

The M's have a pitching surplus (with Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan waiting in the minors) and MLB's third-worst offense. A trade − maybe more than one − seems inevitable.

• Verdict: Buyer

Athletics

The injury to All-Star catcher Shea Langeliers eliminated the A's best trade chip. Now, it's hard for a contender to find anyone on the roster who can help them. Maybe backup catcher and impending free agent Jonah Heim?

• Verdict: Seller

Los Angeles Angels

With the worst record in the majors and arguably the most trade targets, the Angels can jump-start the deadline frenzy at the drop of a halo. Outfielders Jo Adell and Jorge Soler should be available at a reasonable price. Starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano (both with two arbitration years left) will cost a little more. Relievers Kirby Yates and Brent Suter could also be depth pieces. Act now before the liquidation sale ends on Monday!

• Verdict: Major seller

NL East

Atlanta Braves

After all their injuries this season, the Braves are still standing. And thriving − with a six-game division lead. But they definitely need a shortstop (the Angels' Zach Neto?) and could really use a playoff-caliber starter if they want to go far in the postseason.

• Verdict: Buyer

Philadelphia Phillies

Dave Dombrowski is their GM. Say no more. He'd probably trade the Phillie Phanatic for bullpen help if that were an option. Instead, a right-handed hitting outfielder tops Dombrowski's wish list. If he's successful, a rotation with Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo could carry the Phils deep into October.

• Verdict: Buyer

Washington Nationals

MLB's best offense has carried a suspect pitching staff all season. Currently just one game out of the last NL wild-card spot, the Nats have already added starter Connelly Early, who should be joining the rotation soon. Are there more additions coming? All-Star SS CJ Abrams would be a huge get for any contender, but it's hard to see the Nats trading him without getting a Juan Soto-like return (i.e. another Abrams). Maybe 1B Luis Garcia is dealt instead.

• Verdict: Buyer AND seller

Miami Marlins

Plenty of trade candidates here, with C/1B/DH Liam Hicks almost certain to land elsewhere. Starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Braxton Garrett have been drawing attention. A dreadful 12-game losing skid this month has likely turned the Marlins from buyers into ...

• Verdict: Seller

New York Mets

Their offseason moves failed miserably. Juan Soto's calf injury is just the latest insult. Pitcher Freddy Peralta would almost certainly benefit from a change of scenery, as would fellow starter Clay Holmes and reliever Luke Weaver. Perhaps it's time to blow up this version of the Mets and start over.

• Verdict: Seller

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers

A bountiful farm system just keeps providing replacements whenever the Brewers seem to need them. Why bother making trades? Tied with the Dodgers for the best record in the majors, there aren't many weak spots on the Brewers roster. Maybe an arm to help save ace Jacob Misiorowski for the playoffs?

• Verdict: Tepid buyer

Chicago Cubs

A playoff spot seems secure. So what do the Cubs need to do for October? Their starting rotation is still a mess, so trading C/DH Moises Ballesteros, OF Kevin Alcantara and/or OF/3B Matt Shaw for pitching would be a sensible move.

• Verdict: Buyer

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates were surprising buyers this past offseason, and whaddya know ... actually trying to be competitive can work sometimes! They have one of the best offenses in baseball and a rotation any team would envy. But that bullpen needs help. Fortunately, relief pitching is always available at the trade deadline. But don't expect them to go too crazy, they're still the Pirates.

• Verdict: Buyer

St. Louis Cardinals

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year in St. Lous after GM Chaim Bloom traded away many of the veterans from last year's club. But a funny thing happened: the fledgling Cardinals are fluttering on the fringes of the NL playoff race. It's too early to get too excited, but there's also room to start revamping next season's roster. Anyone hungry for a Lars Nootbaar?

• Verdict: Buyer AND seller

Cincinnati Reds

Maybe the opposite of the Cardinals, the Reds have been a major disappointment in 2026, despite the growth shown by promising youngsters Sal Stewart and Chase Burns. They have several impending free agents who could help other teams, including C Tyler Stephenson, 1B Nathaniel Lowe and SP Brady Singer. Closer Emilio Pagan could also be available.

• Verdict: Seller

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

What could the Dodgers want that they don't already have? Hmmm, Skubal would be nice. Otherwise, they may just try to drive up prices for their competitors. The real season doesn't start until October.

• Verdict: Buyer

Arizona Diamondbacks

Of all the teams currently holding a playoff spot, the Diamondbacks may be the most unassuming contender. They have a bunch of their key players signed for the next several years, so no major moves are on the horizon. They could use some bullpen help and perhaps another starter if they're going to be serious about contending.

• Verdict: Tepid buyer

San Diego Padres

Closer Mason Miller could be a difference-maker for any playoff team. And you just know GM A.J. Preller wants to make some deals. However, 1B Ty France and RP Adrian Morejon are much more likely to be moved.

• Verdict: Buyer AND seller

San Francisco Giants

The one-stop shop for all your stretch-run needs, just visit the Giants' waterfront warehouse. An elite contact hitter (Luis Arraez), a power-hitting outfielder (Heliot Ramos), a veteran shortstop (Willy Adames), a durable starter (Robbie Ray) and many more are all available for cash or trade.

• Verdict: Big-time seller

Colorado Rockies

Outfielders Jake McCarthy and Mickey Moniak are available, but how valuable will they be if they aren't hitting at Coors Field? McCarthy's OPS is 187 points higher at home this season (.925 vs. .738), while Moniak's is an astounding 336 points higher (1.033 vs. 697). And good luck trying to pry away two-time All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman.

• Verdict: Seller

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB trade deadline buyers and sellers: Where all 30 teams stand as time runs out

Game three of the three game series. And it is an afternoon game.

Tomorrow’s an off-day, so we are going to see the Odyssey, so if you were going to bet on when the Jays first ‘deadline’ trade will happen, sometime in those three hours would be a sure thing..

Today’s lineup, no Vlad. They say he will be available for pinch hitting, if needed, but I very much doubt he’ll be used. Davis plays second, Just his eighth start at second this season. They seem to have decided he’s an outfield, unless they have little for other options at second.

Go Jays Go.

The San Diego Padres extended their winning streak to four games, despite the bullpen trying to give the game away. Bradgley Rodriguez and Adrian Morejon combined to allow three runs in two innings, but the offense bailed them out and the Padres got an 8-7 win over the Colorado Rockies.

San Diego has shown some fight through the first 11 games since the All-Star break and that was exemplified in the final win against the Miami Marlins and their win against Colorado. The stars have been starring and if that is the team the Padres are going to be, there is no reason to sell at the Trade Deadline.

San Diego will go for a fifth consecutive win and a two-game sweep of Colorado today.

Taking the mound

Kyle Hart (SD) v. Gabriel Hughes (COL)

It was announced late this morning that left-hander Kyle Hart would get the start today for the Padres. Hart is likely the first of many arms to be used by San Diego in the final game of the series with Colorado. The lefty has appeared in 27 games this season and is 0-2 with a 5.21 ERA. Hart last pitched July 24 in Miami. He completed two innings and allowed just two hits and had two strikeouts. If he can have similar success against the Rockies lineup he be given an opportunity to take down as many innings as he can before the ball gets handed to the next guy out of the’pen.

Gabriel Hughes is a rookie pitcher who has only appeared in four games for the Rockies this season. Sometimes the Padres have trouble with a pitcher they are unfamiliar with, so it is important for them to have the same approach at the plate as they have shown over the recent winning streak — be aggressive and punish mistakes in the zone. Hughes is 0-2 in his four appearances but has a 2.79 ERA on the year. He has 19 strikeouts in 19.1 innings and has allowed five hits in each of his last two outings.

Batter up!

Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill combined for 11 hits in the series opener with the Rockies. That level of production cannot be expected game in and game out, but if all three contribute the season may not be lost for San Diego.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
2. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Ty France, DH
5. Jackson Merrill, CF
6. Luis Rengifo, LF
7. Gavin Sheets, 1B
8. Sung-Mun Song, SS
9. Freddy Fermin, C

It was another solid night for the lineup in the opener against the Rockies. There is no reason to mess with a good thing, but Craig Stammen can move guys into different positions on the field. It would make sense to get Bogaerts the day off considering the quick turnaround with the day game after a night game. That is the same thinking when it comes to Fermin getting the nod over Luis Campusano behind the plate, but Campusano has been much more productive than Bogaerts offensively despite the game-winning sacrifice fly and gives the Padres some thump off the bench should they need it in a big spot.

Relief corps

Michael King pitched six innings which left the San Diego bullpen with just three innings to cover. Bradgely Rodriguez had a rough inning of work, allowing two runs and Adrian Morejon allowed a run in his inning as well. Mason Miller locked down the ninth and eventually got the win thanks to the Bogaerts sacrifice walk-off. The remaining pieces in the ‘pen will be available with Morejon likely off due to his bloated pitch count.

It’s a “guys who are maybe about to be traded” matchup on Wednesday afternoon as the Orioles and Tigers close out their three-game series. The starting pitchers, Trevor Rogers for the Orioles and Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, could each be on the move regardless of what happens in this game. The losing team is going to be pushed hard towards a sell-off; the winning team might end up selling off this particular pitcher even if it tries some modest buying.

Each team’s record sucks, yet they really aren’t far out of the playoff picture. But it’s a seller’s market out there and if a team is able to get the right trade, they can probably get a package of prospects that’s superior to just waiting to make the qualifying offer to the pitcher and then collect a draft pick next year.

The trade deadline is August 3. Counting today, there are four games remaining before the deadline. Rogers and/or Skubal are making their final starts for their current teams. Enjoy it while you can. Skubal has won the last two Cy Youngs and is pitching like he’ll win a third, unless he gets traded to an NL team. Rogers pitched like a Cy Young candidate for 18 starts last year and has been pitching like one for the most recent nine of his 19 starts this season. These two things together do not add up to a Cy Young award.

The Orioles have shown us the good and the bad over this series so far. Last night’s blowout loss was rather pathetic. Monday’s win was a nice, competent game. They are both of those things this year, the pathetic one slightly more often than the competent one. Facing Skubal does suggest this is more likely to be another pathetic game. This team has surprised us frequently after people have given up on them for a game or even for the season. They don’t surprise us for long, but they can still surprise us.

We’re running a poll this week with the simple question: Will Mike Elias be the GM next year? If you haven’t voted yet, check it out:

Orioles lineup

1. Taylor Ward – LF
2. Pete Alonso – 1B
3. Gunnar Henderson – SS
4. Tyler O’Neill – RF
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 3B
6. Coby Mayo – 3B
7. Leody Taveras – CF
8. Jeremiah Jackson – 2B
9. Chadwick Tromp – C

Tigers lineup

1. Gleyber Torres – 2B
2. Kevin McGonigle – SS
3. Hao-Yu Lee – 3B
4. Dillon Dingler – C
5. Riley Greene – LF
6. Eduardo Valencia – DH
7. Spencer Torkelson – 1B
8. Matt Vierling – RF
9. Javier Báez – CF

I look at this lineup and I think, this team should be better. I have felt this about the Orioles lineup a lot of days this season. Today is not one of those days. This particularly lineup, it’s fairly clear why the Orioles are where they are. Even so, neither team should be where they are, and yet, here they are. One walks away a winner of the series today. The other seems to be ticketed for trade deadline selling.

Not only has the Chicago White Sox organization improved in the clubhouse and on the field, but they have also shown plenty of appreciation to their fans this season, who have been returning to the park in droves after several rough seasons. This past Sunday, the White Sox generously invited a couple of us here from South Side Sox — Di Billick and me — to take part in a wonderful, nostalgia-filled day of baseball to celebrate National Parents’ Day with our families. There were so many special moments throughout the day, beginning with Munetaka Murakami getting to catch the first pitch from his parents before mashing two homers on his bobblehead day.

As someone who has been a fan of the South Siders for as long as I can remember (thank you, Grandpa), it was amazing to experience the day with so many small, thoughtful touches from the White Sox to make the day as special as possible. Walking into the suite, we were immediately greeted with good vibes, the smell of delicious ballpark snacks, and a little goodie bag with a custom pennant featuring my last name.

Other members of local media joined in on the fun for Family Weekend, including WGN’s very own Dan Ponce, whose family was extremely kind and fun to hang out with for the day. To feed into the nostalgia-filled afternoon, the Sox set up a photo station to make a commemorative baseball card, which brought me right back to Little League, where you’d get your photo printed on a makeshift card; the only difference is I am (at least) 25 years older and have all of my teeth in this photo.

To further enhance the day’s nostalgic undertones, the White Sox also created personalized scorecards with our family’s name on them to keep score throughout the game. Whether you already knew how to keep score or not didn’t matter, however, as former Sox outfielder Mike Huff filled out a massive scorecard on the wall that fans could follow along with or learn the ins and outs of marking up a scorecard. My mom was the official scorekeeper for about 10 years of my softball career, so it was a blast getting to dive back into that while also hanging out with Huff for a bit. I’m not saying my mom could keep a better scorecard than Huff, but I’m not not saying it either.

There were also photo opportunities with a Polaroid camera they had set up, adding to the old-school vibe they were (perfectly) executing, and they even displayed photos some of us submitted to highlight our fandom over the years. Not to brag, but the majority of the photos were from Di and me, and they were a blast to look through, bringing back memories of all the moments we’ve shared as fans over the years.

Truly, I was decked out in Sox gear before I could even talk, and while it was before the Carlos Lee and Bobby Jenks era, my number 45 shirt shows that I knew baseball even as a baby. Impressive, I know.

With it being Backyard Baseball Day at the park as well, my childhood dream was nearly complete: meshing my favorite game as a child with my favorite baseball team. Hard to beat. Except the White Sox did beat it, by bringing us down onto the field to play some catch with our families after the game. I’ve been on the field a couple of times briefly, but it felt special to be able to walk out in center field after a glorious win and toss a baseball around in left field. Did my arm feel like it was going to fall off by the end? Yep. Was it worth it? 100%.

My partner Willie and I were having a blast while my mom watched on, probably bringing back memories of when she’d watch me play softball several times a week. Willie and I got to meet WGN producer Eli Ong, and the three of us lived out a childhood dream together, mixing in a little long toss to see if we still have it at our ripe ages, but wow, that was a blast.

I cannot thank the White Sox enough for such an amazing game-day experience this past weekend, and it’s great to see the organization getting more involved with the fans and giving back a little bit after being dedicated through some hard times. The White Sox have been turning a corner as a whole, and continue to show they’re moving in the right direction both on and off the field. Special shoutout to Colin McGauley and Sheena Quinn for continuing to amplify South Side Sox voices and create an inclusive environment for all.