Tuesday Morning Texas Rangers Update

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 13: Jacob deGrom looks on during the Alumni Classic prior to the game between the Texas Rangers and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Saturday, September 13, 2025 in New York, New York. (Photo by Michael Urakami/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Good morning.

Were the vibes just rancid without Austin Hedges? Evan Grant writes about Corey Seager facing the media to discuss the clubhouse culture for the Texas Rangers in recent years.

Kennedi Landry writes that Seager downplayed any bad blood between himself and departed former keystone partner Marcus Semien.

Jeff Wilson writes that Seager is eager to buy into the culture that new manager Skip Schumaker intends to instill.

Shawn McFarland writes that Schumaker has answered one of three questions regarding his outfield with Brandon Nimmo officially moving to right field.

Landry names Kumar Rocker as the Ranger with the most to prove this spring as he tries to graduate from prospect on the cusp to full-fledged big leaguer.

So far so good as Grant notes that Rocker impressed with a new devotion to a changeup during live batting practice in Surprise yesterday.

And, Jacob deGrom cracked the top ten at No. 10 on Buster Olney’s list of top starting pitchers heading into the 2026 season.

Have a nice day!

Why trading Ryan Mountcastle or Coby Mayo might not make sense

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 19: Ryan Mountcastle #6 of the Baltimore Orioles rounds the bases during the game between the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Friday, September 19, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Alyssa Howell/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The current buzz out of Sarasota has seemingly shifted from which players the Orioles may add to the roster to who may soon be heading out the door. MLB Insider Ken Rosenthal recently reported that, after further fortifying the pitching rotation with veteran Chris Bassitt, the O’s have now turned their attention to potential trades for Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo.

On the surface, it’s easy to see the logic behind shipping out one or both of Mayo and Mountcastle. Their ability to coexist on the 2026 Orioles roster always seemed tenuous at best. Both are big, right-handed power bats who offer some positional flexibility, but really fit best at 1B. Getting both of them enough at-bats in Baltimore, while also planning for Samuel Basallo to play some first, was always going to be a tough thing to achieve.

And that was before the front office made the biggest move of their offseason and signed Pete Alonso. The Orioles now have 155 million reasons to justify why Alonso will be their everyday 1B going forward. Over his last four seasons with the Mets, the Polar Bear has averaged 40 HRs per season and steps into the Orioles lineup as Baltimore’s biggest run-producing threat. And sure, he’ll probably see some time at DH this season, but not enough to facilitate significant playing time at first for Mounty, Mayo and Basallo.

With the injury to Jackson Holliday, it’s currently possible to keep all three on the roster without things getting too awkward. The likely Opening Day infield will see Alonso at first, some combination of Blaze Alexander and Jordan Westburg at second and third, with Gunnar Henderson manning short. That leaves Mayo as the backup third baseman and Mountcastle in the Ryan O’Hearn, sometimes 1B/sometimes RF, position. It’s far from a perfectly balanced roster, considering the O’s will also likely carry five outfielders and only three middle infielders.

However, just because keeping Mountcastle and Mayo presents a roster construction problem, it doesn’t mean trading them before the season starts makes the most sense for this team. Mountcastle is coming off the worst season of his MLB career. A hamstring injury limited him to 89 games, and by the time he came back in early August, the Orioles’ season was already lost. Right after coming off the injured list, it looked like Mounty was back to his best self—slashing .305/.348/.463 over 21 games in August. That production completely dried up in September, though, as RMC’s average dropped to .190, his OPS dipped to .522, and he ultimately ceded a lot of his playing time to Mayo.

Trading Mountcastle now seems unlikely to return something that would actually make the Orioles better right now. As someone coming off a down season in the last year of his contract, Mounty is not exactly at the peak of his trade value. The soon-to-be 29-year-old wouldn’t command a starting pitcher better than Dean Kremer, Zach Eflin, or Chris Bassitt. It seems unlikely that he could even get the Orioles back a reliever who would significantly improve their bullpen.

Mountcastle’s biggest asset has always been his ability to mash left-handed pitching. He’s a career .282 hitter against lefties, with a .813 OPS and a 116 OPS+. That production was nowhere to be found in 2025, though. In his limited game time last year, his OPS against lefties dropped to .598 and he failed to register a homer against LHPs for the first time since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Even with Alonso, Taylor Ward and Tyler O’Neill on the roster, Mounty should still see plenty of opportunities in lineups against LHPs. If he can do damage against southpaws again, he’ll either prove himself valuable enough to stay an Oriole or valuable enough to trade at the deadline for a player that can make a difference in 2026.

With Mayo, much of his value is based on potential rather than actual production. His scouting profile and minor league production show a player with an Alonso-like ceiling. No, he’ll never come close to competing for a batting title, and he’ll always probably strike out more than you’d like, but there’s real 30+/year power in the 24-year-old’s bat as we glimpsed at the end of last season.

In his first meaningful taste of big league action, we got a tale of two Mayo’s in 2025. In 79 ABs before the All-Star break, we saw a player clearly struggling to adapt to the majors while coping with the inconsistent nature of his playing time—all of which culminated in a .203 average, .563 OPS and a 28% strikeout rate.

But as his playing time grew, so did his confidence and production. Mayo got 184 ABs after the break, and turned that opportunity into a .223 average, a .740 OPS and 10 HRs. Strikeouts were still a big problem, as his K rate grew to an alarming 34%, but the signs of a real, Major League contributor were there.

The South Florida native has plenty of things working in his favor that make him a more valuable trade chip than Mountcastle. He’s five years younger, with a higher ceiling and five additional years of team control. That alone could make him attractive to teams who are looking to build for the future, but do those teams really have players who would make the Orioles better right now?

Many have suggested the idea of trading Mayo to his hometown Marlinsto bring back pitching. However, with the recent struggles of Sandy Alcantara and the Miami unlikely to entertain a trade for Eury Pérez, it seems unlikely that Mayo would bring back a pitcher who actually makes Baltimore’s rotation better. The same could be said for teams like the Pirates or Rockies, who could certainly hold interest in Mayo but lack the pitchers to make it worth the Orioles’ while.

For years, we’ve all clamored for Mike Elias & Co. to be more aggressive in using trades to make immediate improvements to the Orioles roster. And now, it seems they have the perfect opportunity with a clear surplus in one position and needs elsewhere on the roster. And yet, if finding the ideal, “win-now” trade partner for Mountcastle or Mayo was so easy, they’d be on other teams by now. Instead, their best place (for now) is still in Baltimore, where they’ll look to carve out a role in one of the AL’s most intriguing lineups.

What will Sean Murphy produce in 2026?

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 29: Sean Murphy #12 of the Atlanta Braves in action during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on August 29, 2025 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Prior entries:

Ah, Sean Murphy. There’s a long tradition of guys being the guy to draw the most rancor debate-wise in Braves fandom, and, well, Sean Murphy bears that mantle now. No one was complaining about Murphy shortly into the 2023 season, or in the aftermath of that season, but things haven’t gone great for him since.

Murphy got hurt on Opening Day of 2024, and seemed pretty impaired after returning, something that the bat speed data easily confirms. In 2025, Murphy didn’t even wait until Opening Day, suffering a fractured rib in Spring Training. At this point, you all know how that season ended: with Murphy finally calling it quits on trying to play through a hip labrum issue that had apparently been bugging him for much of or all of his entire Braves tenure. Oy. What happens now, with playing time far less guaranteed than before given the emergence of Drake Baldwin, is murky.

Career-to-date, status

Murphy was having a quiet-yet-monstrous career when the Braves traded for him, as he had amassed 10.5 fWAR in 1,260 PAs while playing in Oakland for parts of four seasons, including a massive 5.2 fWAR/612 PA campaign immediately before the trade. He was stellar both offensively (.343 xwOBA) and defensively (basically plus two wins per season, inclusive of positional adjustment), and if anything, his value was actually tamped down relative to his inputs because he substantially underhit his xwOBA in both 2021 and 2022.

After coming to Atlanta, the Braves seemingly gave him carte blanche to do his whole “swing incredibly hard in case you hit it” shtick, and he exploded with a .393 xwOBA while continuing to play elite defense. He earned 5.0 fWAR in just 438 PAs — that’s a nearly 7 WAR/600 rate for those that don’t want to do division and multiplication themselves. Again, Murphy substantially underhit his xwOBA despite dominating on the field.

Even before that new gear of performance in a new uniform, the Braves signed Murphy to a six-year, $73 million extension. Murphy is earning $15 million annual salaries through 2028, with a no-buyout club option for the same in 2029 as well.

Anyway, 2023 was awesome, but then the aforementioned injuries hit. In addition to coming back from those, Murphy turned 31 last October, so he’s likely in the latter half of his career at this point.

Recent performance

Nothing went right for Murphy in 2024, and it seems like he was playing hurt. He also continued to underhit his xwOBA, so while the griping about his circumstances goes beyond whether or not he gets his just deserts, there’s an undercurrent of “maybe we should be discussing if Sean Murphy has a slice or whatever like we did endlessly with Marcell Ozuna” there too. Murphy was still good defensively in 2024, but not as good as in 2023 and before. His bat speed collapsed, and his offensive profile, which was built around doing damage on contact, went with it. He tallied 0.8 fWAR in 264 PAs in 2024, though if you knock the xwOBA underperformance out, that probably would’ve doubled by my very rough math.

2025 was an improvement as he rebounded defensively, and also, he finally stopped being plagued by xwOBA underperformance. Unfortunately, his xwOBA ended up largely the same as 2024, and his bat speed collapsed even further. The rest of the offensive signs were all kind of a jumble — his contact quality actually rebounded, but he started missing pitches. It’s hard to say what was an adjustment to playing hurt, what was an adjustment to new offensive instruction the team received, what was natural variation in a small sample, and so on. It’s easier to note that Murphy had a no-complaints-here .352 wOBA / .332 xwOBA through the end of July, and then basically stopped hitting at all afterwards — even though this story, too, is made more complicated by the fact that he started swinging way harder while flailing. There are mixed signals there, but fundamentally, it was Murphy’s defense keeping him productive and valuable in 2025, especially as hit bat slipped and he called it quits down the stretch.

Forecasting

Boy, this is another toughie. You have to factor in Murphy’s health (whether for good or for ill relative to his 2024-2025 performance) but also, separately, the availability of playing time. Murphy probably shouldn’t be DHing, but he might, and how often he DHes also has meaty implications for his value due to the huge swing between his ability to rack up defensive value and the massive DH penalty to WAR.

IWAG basically thinks that Murphy will, for reasons other than season-ending hip surgery that was probably needed years ago, replicate 2025. The combination of injury-affecting-performance, persistent-ish xwOBA underperformance (look at that career .327/.345 gap in over 2,000 PAs), and the mess of signals that was his 2025 season appears to be pushing towards the system’s version of a “shrug, who knows, just stick with what happened more recently.” That’s fairly consistent with Steamer (albeit with better defense) and comes in well below ZiPS, which sees more of an offensive bounceback.

In some ways, the two humps here on the raw WAR chart are really just “Murphy is worth playing all the time” and “Murphy isn’t worth playing all the time.” It’ll be better for the team if he forces the Braves to make tough decisions about how often Drake Baldwin plays, but there’s a substantial likelihood that the combination of his availability and performance level give him useful backup levels of production and not much else.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

  • How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”
  • Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Sean Murphy produce in 2026?

Arizona Diamondbacks News 2/17: Three Days to Spring Games!

Arizona Diamondbacks Nolan Arenado (center) during spring training workouts at Salt River Fields on Feb. 16, 2026, in Scottsdale. | Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Diamondbacks News

The Diamondbacks’ Next Competitive Window Depends On Ryne Nelson by Michael McDermott [Mike’s Hardball Blueprint]. {Ed. Note: Loved this analysis from Michael. I’m not great with pitcher analytics but Michael does a great job here explaining the ‘nitty gritty’ on why certain pitches should or shouldn’t work to help Nelson round out his arsenal.}

For the Diamondbacks to be a contender in 2026, they need Nelson to take the next step and develop into a frontline starter. Merrill Kelly is 37 years old, Eduardo Rodríguez is 33 with an injury history, and Brandon Pfaadt has a career ERA over 5.00. So it’s incumbent on the 29-year-old to become the type of starter Arizona envisioned when they drafted him 56th overall in 2019.

Here’s a breakdown of what the Diamondbacks could do to turn Nelson into a potential ace.

Diamondbacks’ Adrian Del Castillo Opening Day status in question by Alex Weiner [Arizona Sports]

Arizona Diamondbacks catcher and designated hitter Adrian Del Castillo is dealing with a left calf injury that could keep him out through Opening Day.

Manager Torey Lovullo said on Monday that Del Castillo will be out for most of spring training, and the club will reassess him closer to the start of the regular season.

“He’s doing things where he can, he’s getting on his knees and throwing but not really stressing that left calf at all,” Lovullo said.

Diamondbacks Reveal New Timeline For Injured First Baseman by Michael McDermott [Heavy]

The timeline for when Diamondbacks first baseman Tyler Locklear will return had been unclear throughout the offseason. Locklear underwent surgery on both his left shoulder and left elbow to address an injury sustained in an on-field collision in October.

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo provided a clearer update on when the young first baseman will return to action. Lovullo told reporters, including Arizona Sports’ Alex Weiner, that Locklear is looking at mid-May to June.

Diamondbacks Pitchers Thrilled by Unexpected Reunion by Alex D’Agostino [SI]

More importantly, however, Gallen’s new locker is right where it should be: next to friend, golfing buddy and 2026 opening day starter Merrill Kelly. The D-backs’ long-time one-two punch were reunited against all odds this offseason.

Neither pitcher expected to see each other in the same clubhouse this year. But here they both are.

“That’s my locker-mate for the last seven years,” Kelly said. “That’s the guy I golf with on the road. … I think everybody’s happy to see him.”

Archie Bradley Backs Ketel Marte, “I Love” Arenado Move by Kyle Odegard [RG]

“You go through things, man,” Bradley told RG in an exclusive interview. “That’s one thing non-players kind of forget. We are people, too. Ketel has been through a lot. Lost his mom, got his house broken into. Ketel even came out and apologized about the way he handled it. We all make mistakes.

“But for me, he’s in the top five for all-time D-Backs. He’s the No. 1 second baseman in the league. 

Power hitter from both sides. I think you’re going to see an even better Ketel this year. Even more of a leader. I think that’s what I see the most from him. He’s one of the most tenured guys in that clubhouse. He got traded there in 2017, and we debuted together. I think it was just a little mishap. He’s good and has mended everything back there.”

Desert Oasis: Zac Gallen Returns to Diamondbacks on One-Year Deal by Ben Clemens [FanGraphs]

Gallen was my no. 19 free agent this winter, and I’ll just reproduce the first line of my write-up here: “After looking at Gallen’s résumé for about an hour, I came to an obvious conclusion: I’m glad I’m not a major league GM.” He had a severe case of pumpkinization in 2025. He missed fewer bats, drew fewer chases, walked more batters and struck out fewer, gave up louder contact, didn’t keep the ball on the ground, and lost a bit of velocity. It was the worst season of his career by a large margin; his 4.83 ERA might have been a caricature of his performance, but all of his advanced run prevention estimators surged to career-worst marks, too.

As a platform year, it left something to be desired. But I still think Gallen was right to turn down his QO and survey the landscape. After that didn’t work out, however, he made the obvious choice: Run it back in the same place and try again. Given that he put up a 3.20 ERA (3.22 FIP, 3.47 xFIP) from 2022 through 2024, worth a whopping 12.2 WAR (14.9 rWAR), betting on at least a little bit of bounce-back before a second trip to free agency surely felt very appealing.

Diamondbacks’ catcher Gabriel Moreno eyes productive 2026 season by José M. Romero [AZ Central]

Gabriel Moreno spent his offseason putting in work in his native Venezuela, getting himself prepared for the upcoming season. He was there in early January when the U.S. military staged a raid and captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

A new acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, assumed leadership of a shaky government already dealing with a collapsed economy, inflation, infrastructure failures and a general lack of basic human services.

“It’s hard, obviously, for the government,” Moreno said in Spanish. “But the world knows that Venezuelans want a good future for their country. I think most people are OK with things.”

Moreno hopes for a better future as well, starting with a healthy and productive 2026 season. He’s been limited by various injuries over the past two seasons, including thumb and groin injuries in 2024 and a broken finger on his right hand, the one with which he throws, that cost him two months in 2025.

Around the League

Buster Olney’s 2026 top 10 at every position: Starting pitchers by Buster Olney [ESPN]

The question is simple: Who is the best pitcher on the planet, Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes?

But the initial responses of Major League Baseball industry evaluators suggest overwhelming brain fry.

“Oh, wow …”

“C’mon …”

“You’re asking me?”

“Are you f—ing kidding me with that?”

Judge was anxiously waiting for Yanks to ‘go out there and get the right people’ by Bryan Hoch [MLB]

As months passed and other teams in the American League East created headlines with big-ticket additions, Judge said he voiced his impatience with management, waiting for a headline-grabbing move in the Bronx.

“Early on, it was pretty tough to watch,” Judge said. “I’m like, ‘Man, we’re the New York Yankees. Let’s go out there and get the right people, the right pieces to go out there and finish this thing off.’”

2026 Top 100 Prospects by Eric Longenhagen, Brendan Gawlowski and James Fegan [FanGraphs] {Ed. Note: D-backs on the list: #35 Ryan Waldschmidt and #98 Tommy Troy}

Waldschmidt started his amateur career on the infield, but has played on the grass exclusively as a pro. His feel for the outfield has matured to the point where he projects above average in a corner. He’s played a handful of games in center, but isn’t really a fit there. No matter. The bat should carry Waldschmidt to a productive career, and he projects as a middle-of-the-order hitter. It’s a power-and-OBP-over-hit skill set, and at the low end of his range of outcomes, he may just strike out too much to be more than a part-time player. But Waldschmidt’s median outcome is as a regular, and there’s 30-homer upside if everything clicks. He should arrive in the desert early in the 2026 season, and the injury to Corbin Carroll could propel him onto the Opening Day roster.

Padres Sign Walker Buehler To Minor League Deal by Anthony Franco [MLB Trade Rumors]

San Diego continues to stockpile potential back-end starters. The Padres agreed to big league deals with Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez over the weekend. Buehler settles for a non-roster invitation, which seemingly puts him a little behind the other two veteran righties as camp gets underway. (Canning is coming back from an Achilles tear and is questionable for Opening Day). Buehler has been the most accomplished of that trio over the course of his career, though, so it’d hardly be a surprise if he pitches his way onto the roster.

The Friars have three locks for the Opening Day rotation: Nick PivettaMichael King and Joe Musgrove. First-year skipper Craig Stammen implied last week that righty Randy Vásquez has a leg up on the fourth starter role after a solid finish last year. Márquez, Canning (if healthy) and JP Sears are the top options on the 40-man roster for the fifth starter job. Matt Waldron also remains on the 40-man but is out of options and coming off a rough season in Triple-A. Buehler joins Triston McKenzieand Marco Gonzales among the non-roster invitees.

Mets Owner Draws Hard Line: No Captain Under His Watch by Alvin Garcia [Heavy]

At the club’s spring complex in Port St. Lucie, Cohen declared that he will not allow an official “C” on anyone’s jersey while he owns the franchise. “As long as I’m owning the team, there will never be a team captain,” Cohen said to reporters, including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. Cohen presented the move as a philosophical choice rather than a reactionary one. In his view, the clubhouse should define its own hierarchy organically, year by year, rather than through a front-office designation.

That stance lands differently in Queens, where captaincy has historically meant something.

The Mets have named only four captains in franchise history: Keith HernandezGary CarterJohn Franco, and David Wright. Each represented not just on-field excellence but cultural identity. Wright, in particular, bridged eras—from the late Shea Stadium years to Citi Field—embodying stability amid turbulent seasons.

Atlanta Braves News: Top Prospects, Austin Riley, More

CINCINNATI, OHIO - AUGUST 01: Austin Riley #27 of the Atlanta Braves at bat against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 01, 2025 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) | Getty Images

For once, the Braves were able to make it through a day without any further injury news (knock on wood that becomes the norm.) And while Monday was a slow news day overall, it was fun to see JR Ritchie and Didier Fuentes named in the top 100 prospects at Fangraphs. While it is surprising that Cam Caminiti was not on the list, these three young arms appear to be the best of Atlanta’s farm system currently. Their development will be a big story line this season.

Braves News

Austin Riley talks expectations for him with the Braves this year, a year in which Riley envisions his production to return to expected form.

MLB News

Walker Buehler and the Padres agreed to a minor-league deal.

Twins starter Pablo Lopez will have his pitching elbow looked at further after experiencing soreness.

The Padres extended GM AJ Preller to a multi year contract.

Quantity meets volatility: What FanGraphs’ new rankings say about the White Sox’s future

Caleb Bonemer’s raw power has him sitting pretty in the Top 40 of FanGraphs’ latest rankings. | Diamond Images/Getty Images

The FanGraphs Top 100 list dropped yesterday, and if you’re looking for a reason to actually pay attention to the 2026 season beyond “the weather might be nice in May,” Eric Longenhagen and friends just provided a small, 50-FV-sized dose of Vitamin C for a malnourished fan base.

In a system that has spent the last few years looking like a construction site where the foreman lost the blueprints, there finally seems to be a tangible core of talent cresting the horizon.


While the Sox have been a “pitching-first” factory lately, the list features two bats that couldn’t be more different if they tried.

  • Caleb Bonemer (No. 33, 50 FV): He is officially the standard-bearer for the South Side’s future, that is, until Roch Cholowsky comes a callin’. Landing in the Top 40, Bonemer is the “Prove It” prospect for a front office that has historically struggled with prep bats. ETA: 2029.
  • Braden Montgomery (No. 100, 50 FV): The switch-hitting outfielder just barely squeezed onto the list. He’s a “boom-or-bust” archetype with massive raw power but significant swing-and-miss concerns. If he makes enough contact, he’s a 30-HR threat; if not, he’s a cautionary tale. ETA: 2027, although with a strong spring, he could get the Chase Meidroth treatment and be up by April.

The Sox have specialized in “weird” lefties lately, and this list reflects that obsession.

  • Noah Schultz (No. 36, 50 FV): He remains the highest-ranked arm in the system despite a “down” 2025, where his walk rate ballooned in Double-A. The 65-grade slider is still a nightmare for hitters, and FanGraphs is betting on the 6’10” frame eventually finding the zone. He’s the most likely “ace” outcome in the system. ETA: 2026.
  • Hagen Smith (No. 65, 50 FV): The 2024 first-rounder is the ultimate enigma. His fastball can touch triple digits, and his slider is elite, but a 6.66 BB/9 last season has Chris Getz checking his blood pressure. If the command moves from “catastrophic” to “below average,” he’s a frontline starter. ETA: 2027.
  • Christian Oppor (No. 95, 50 FV): A massive riser in the system, Oppor took a leap forward in 2025. He’s another southpaw with a mid-rotation ceiling who finally found a way to use his lean frame to generate consistent stuff. He’s the “sleeper” who isn’t sleeping anymore. ETA: 2027.

While technically just outside the “Top 100,” Tanner McDougal is essentially in the same tier. After a breakout in Double-A where he shaved his BB/9 to 3.89, he’s positioned himself as a potential mid-rotation stabilizer. He’s the “high-floor” counterweight to the “all-ceiling” Schultz and Smith. ETA: 2026.


The 2026 list is a sobering reminder of where the White Sox stand. While the quantity is finally there with placing five guys in the top 100 and another at 104, it’s a group defined by volatility. There are a lot of 50-FV grades here, meaning the Sox have a bunch of “solid everyday players” in the oven, but we’re still waiting for someone to leap into the 60+ FV “Superstar” tier. Again, paging Roch Cholowsky. But for today, we hang our hats on the fact that the South Side has a core to dream on. It sure is better than starving.

What do you think, Sox fans? Does seeing five names in the Top 100 make the potential for the future feel real, or are you worried that Rebuild 2.0 will end up like 1.0?

Mets Morning News: No Captain, My Captain

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 16: New York Mets owner Steve Cohen speaks to press during spring training workouts at Clover Park on February 16, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Meet the Mets

The full squad reported to Port St. Lucie yesterday, which means the gang’s all here.

Steve Cohen spoke to the media on the first official day of spring training. He spoke about being annoyed with the team’s inconsistency in recent years and declared that, as long as he is owner, there will never be a captain on the Mets. He also talked about being a “league first” owner with respect to the salary cap and will look at both sides of the argument.

In putting an emphatic end to the team captain discourse, Peter Chawaga of Forbes also saw this as the team sending a message to Francisco Lindor, who for a while was thought to be the next captain of the Mets.

John Harper also viewed it as Cohen taking a no-nonsense approach to the 2026 season after last season’s epic collapse.

Carson Benge is a big fan of Juan Soto, and it seems that the feeling and admiration is mutual.

The Mets signed outfielder Mike Tauchman to a minor league deal. Tauchman will be added to the mix of players competing for that open right field spot.

A lot of folks were impressed by Christian Scott’s session yesterday, including Carlos Mendoza, who praised his cutter, and John Harper, who believes Scott will be in the rotation at some point. It’s unlikely he’ll be ready for Opening Day.

Scott represents a reminder of the team’s rotation potential as he works his way back from an elbow injury.

The Mets have a lot of questions heading into the 2026 season, but so do their NL East foes, argues Joel Sherman.

Citi Field has been once again been nominated for best stadium food in baseball. You can vote here to crown Citi Field as the top dog of selling hot dogs (and other, more fancy, ballpark eats).

Tom Seaver’s impressive collection, including his 1969 Mets World Series Ring, is heading to auction.

Around the National League East

Ex-Mets reliever Drew Smith has signed a minor league deal with the Nationals that would pay him $1.75 million if he makes the team and includes $1.25 million in performance bonuses.

The Phillies believe they can finish the job in 2026 and are viewing this season as “World Series or bust”.

Nick Tricome argued that perhaps it is best for the Phillies and Bryce Harper to be uncomfortable.

Braves’ skipper Walt Weiss described Ronald Acuña Jr. as a “bull ready for door to open”, adding that the Braves’ star is in a good place mentally and emotionally.

Bruce Sherman, the Marlins’ principal owner, says the club’s expectation is to W-I-N.

Around Major League Baseball

Fangraphs revealed their list of top 100 prospects for the 2026 season.

Is this finally the year for one of these teams with an epic title drought? Will Leitch made the case for some clubs that could finally break through in 2026.

Spring Training is an opportunity for players to show something to their teams. The MLB.com staff picked out a player on each squad with the most to prove, including Kodai Senga for the Mets.

Buster Olney listed the top ten starting pitchers in baseball right now.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. has entered spring training happier than ever.

Mike Trout is healthy heading into 2026 and looking to return to center field.

Corey Seager, ex-teammate of current Mets second baseman Marcus Semin, downplayed the rumored issues between the two as the Rangers enter a new era.

The hard-throwing Yankees’ prospect Carlos Lagrange is being thrown right into the fire in the Bronx, as he was put in to pitch against Aaron Judge.

Judge was frustrated by the Yankees’ slow winter, saying that he was waiting for the team to go out there and find the right people. However, he now believes the team is in a good spot.

Tommy Edman of the Dodgers is dealing with an ankle injury, and it sounds like he won’t be ready for Opening Day.

Pablo López had to cut his bullpen session short due to elbow soreness.

The Padres signed AJ Preller, their president of baseball operations, to a long-term contract extension.

San Diego also signed Walker Buehler on a minor league deal.

The Angels added Adam Frazier on a minor league deal.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Brian Salvatore previewed Grae Kessinger’s 2026 season.

This Date in Mets History

Tebow Time officially came to an end, as Mets legend Tim Tebow announced his retirement from baseball on this date in 2021.

Dodgers notes: Hyeseong Kim, Alex Freeland, Walker Buehler

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 13: Alex Freeland #76 of the Los Angeles Dodgers participates in a fielding drill during spring training workouts at Camelback Ranch on February 13, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images

With confirmation on Monday from manager Dave Roberts that Tommy Edman will begin the season on the injured list, naturally conversation turned to what is now an open competition in Dodgers camp for playing time at second base.

Miguel Rojas will be in the mix, as will veteran Santiago Espinal, who signed a minor league deal on Monday. Hyeseong Kim and Alex Freeland, who each made their MLB debuts in 2025, will also vie for playing time and a potential roster spot on a team that will be without both Edman and Kiké Hernández to open the season.

Bill Plunkett at the Orange County Register has more on the second base battle, including comments from Kim on offseason adjustments:

He indicated Monday that the Dodgers have suggested some more changes.

“The swing changes we made last year, I would say I felt about 70% comfortable,” Kim said through an interpreter. “And then this offseason and spring training, we were able to recognize some of the other stuff that we needed to work on, so I’m working very hard to make those changes again this year.”

In case you were wondering, six different Dodgers started at second base last year between the regular season and postseason: Edman 74 starts, Rojas 38, Kim 32, Freeland 11, Hernández nine, and Chris Taylor once.


Walker Buehler’s first season after the Dodgers saw him post a 4.93 ERA and 5.41 xERA in 126 innings with the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies. He was active during the National League Division Series against the Dodgers but did not pitch. Now, the veteran right-hander signed a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres, trying to crack their depleted starting rotation. Kevin Acee at the San Diego Union-Tribune has more on Buehler’s new deal.


Monday was legendary sportscaster Jim Hill’s 50th anniversary on the airwaves in Los Angeles.

Who do Giants fans think is going to have a breakout season?

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 08: A detailed view of the cap and Rawlings baseball glove belonging to Heliot Ramos #17 of the San Francisco Giants is seen in the dugout prior to the game against the Washington Nationals at Oracle Park on August 08, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning baseball fans!

As we approach Spring Training and the beginning of the season, we’re going to be doing some questions for y’all about your thoughts about the San Francisco Giants and baseball in general!

Today’s question: Who do you think is going to have a breakout year?

After this weekend’s BP, I think you can all guess my answer. I’m hoping to see Jung Hoo Lee have a breakout season. I think the potential is there, after what we saw glimpses of throughout last year. He’s already a fan-favorite and international star, with a ton of support from both the Bay Area and his home country of South Korea. But I would like to see him catch the attention of the baseball world more broadly and I think he can do it.

Who do you think is going to have a breakout season?

What do you expect from Kyle Bradish this year?

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 09: Kyle Bradish #38 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 09, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

All of this offseason talk around the Orioles’ “need” for an ace seems to ignore the fact that they already have one in-house. Kyle Bradish was one of the best pitchers in the league back in 2023. That year saw him post a 2.83 ERA over 168.2 innings, finishing fourth in AL Cy Young voting. The odds that they would find anyone better than that (talent-wise, anyway) this past offseason were low.

But of course there are legitimate questions about current-day Bradish. That 2023 campaign was also his last full, healthy season. He entered 2024 with a sprain in his right UCL. After just eight starts that year, he needed to undergo Tommy John surgery, the rehab from which carried over to 2025 and limited him to only six late-season starts there. Asking him to jump right back to the front of a contender’s rotation could be a tall task.

While the quantity of Bradish’s outings the last two seasons have been low, the quality has been as good as ever. In that time he has a 2.65 ERA and 2.48 FIP over 71.1 total innings, with 100 strikeouts, and 25 walks. The concern will be with what sort of workload he can handle in the season ahead.

Here is what two prominent projection systems expect for Bradish in 2026:

  • ZiPS: 100 IP, 3.51 ERA, 9.54 K/9, 2.88 BB/9
  • BRef: 80 IP, 3.38 ERA, 9.80 K/9, 2.9 BB/9

These projections believe that Bradish is either going to miss more time in 2026, or that he will have an innings limit. That was sort of the case once the Orioles activated him last year. He averaged six innings per start, but he was largely limited to one start a week rather than every fifth day, and never threw more than 91 pitches in a start. Bradish himself has said there could be some constraints on him, particularly early in the season.

The Orioles’ goal in all of this must be to have him firing on all cylinders by sometime in the second half of the season. He has the potential to be their “Game 1 Starter” by the time the postseason rolls around. But both he and the O’s will need to make it there first.

What do you think of these projections? How many big league innings do you expect Bradish to throw in 2026, and what sort of quality will we see? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section.

State of the Yankees’ System: Relief Pitching

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 02: David Bednar #53 of the New York Yankees celebrates after beating the Boston Red Sox 4-0 in game three of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on October 02, 2025 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Yankees had serious bullpen issues in 2025, which mostly stemmed from the fact that Devin Williams had far and away the worst year of his career after he was acquired from the Brewers for Caleb Durbin and Nestor Cortes in the offseason. Williams figured it out towards the end of the year and was a valuable piece in September and October, but he finished the season with a disastrous 4.79 ERA and his series of implosions in the first half cost the Yankees a number of wins which directly led to the team losing the division by the narrowest margin possible. Williams’ struggles reached the point where he lost save opportunities to Luke Weaver, who was more reliable than Williams but also regressed from the hero role he played during the previous postseason, and at times struggled terribly down the stretch.

Williams and Weaver are the only two players from last year’s ALDS roster that are no longer with the team; they both moved across town and signed with the Mets. This leaves David Bednar, who took over the closer role after being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline, as the default ninth-inning option for 2026. Bednar went 4-0 with 10 saves with the Yankees, recording a 2.19 ERA while striking out 36% of the hitters he faced. He’s an elite closer, and the Yankees should feel great about handing the ball to finish games.

The primary set-up men in the bullpen will be Camilo Doval and Fernando Cruz. Doval was another trade deadline acquisition last July, and was not impressive as a Yankee during the regular season with a 4.82 ERA in 18 innings. Control problems have been a thorn in his side for the last two years, but he features a wipeout slider and has been a reliable late-inning reliever for most of his career. His fastball has regressed as of late, which should be Matt Blake’s primary focus in getting him back to top form. Cruz spent his first full year with the Yankees in 2025 and struck out 36% of the hitters he faced on the back of his wipeout splitter. His 3.56 ERA was a major step forward from his shaky numbers with the Reds, and he should be one of the most prominent members of the Yankees’ bullpen moving forward.

Tim Hill will look to build on the 3.09 ERA he posted last year and retain his role as the funky left-handed specialist meant to induce as many ground balls as possible. He’s one of two southpaws in the bullpen, the other being Ryan Yarbrough who’s spent a lot of his career as a starting pitcher and made eight starts with the Yankees last season. Barring disastrous health problems, Yarbrough should spent 2026 in the bullpen and will be deployed primarily as a long reliever.

The rest of the bullpen will likely include Paul Blackburn and Cade Winquest. Blackburn came over from the Mets midway through the 2025 season and struggled as Yankee on the surface, though the difference between his actual and expected stats was staggering (he had a 5.28 ERA vs 2.92 xERA). He re-signed on a one-year, $2 million contract this offseason. Winquest was the Yankees’ first Rule 5 selection in years. He has yet to make his MLB debut, but his fastball can reach triple digits and he features a plus changeup and curveball. Both pitchers should be back-end options in the bullpen to start the year, with the chance to earn more opportunities as the season develops.

Jake Bird was another trade deadline acquisition as the Yankees acquired him from the Rockies for Roc Riggio and Ben Shields. He only pitched in three games with the big-league team and spent almost all his time in Triple-A, but he’s looking to get back on track this season and earn a spot in the Major League bullpen. At his best, Bird’s lethal slider/cutter combination makes him incredibly difficult to hit.

We’ve written extensively about Carlos Lagrange over the past year, most recently in our starting pitcher preview, but there’s a realistic chance he appears in the Yankees’ bullpen sometime this year and for that reason he’s worth mentioning here. Lagrange made huge gains last season and is already turning heads in camp. He was hitting 102 MPH with his fastball as of Monday afternoon, when he allowed a home run to Aaron Judge and then struck the three-time MVP out on three pitches. The Yankees should do everything they can to help Lagrange develop into a starting pitcher, but his ETA should be around sometime this summer, at which point the rotation could be healthy and thriving. Adding his electric arsenal into the bullpen down the stretch could be a huge boost to the pitching staff and a perfect jumping-off for Lagrange’s MLB career.

Aside from the names above, most of the other contenders for innings in the Bronx will be starting the season in Triple-A if not with the big-league club. Some of these names include Brent Headrick, Yerry de los Santos, Angel Chivilli, and Kervin Castro. Headrick is the most likely candidate to break camp with the team after he pitched 23 innings with the Yankees in 2025 and thrived with a 3.13 ERA and 32.6% strikeout rate. If the team decides to roll with three lefties in the bullpen, or if Hill or Yarbrough are forced to miss anytime this season, his is the first name they should call. Fans should also remember de los Santos fondly after he pitched 35 innings in the Bronx and recorded a 3.28 ERA. He struggled with walks, but was able to get the job done in 2025 and could get more opportunities this season.

Chivilli was acquired from the Rockies in exchange for minor-league slugger T.J. Rumfield this offseason. His numbers were catastrophic in Colorado last season, but he was pitching in a uniquely terrible environment. It’s difficult to even gauge how good a pitcher’s stuff is in Coors Field. The Yankees clearly saw enough that they liked to trade for Chivilli, but for now he should be viewed as a lottery ticket. Castro has struggled in his limited sample in the big-leagues, and after missing all of 2024 he pitched 47 innings in Triple-A last season with a 1.53 ERA.

The Yankees also signed Rafael Montero to a minor-league contract in early February. Montero was a huge part of the Astros’ World Series-champion bullpen in 2022, but he’s struggled mightily in the three years since. He’s another lottery ticket. Non-roster spring training invitations were also extended to Dylan Coleman, Carson Coleman, Bradley Hanner, Harrison Cohen, and Travis MacGregor. Dylan Coleman is the only one of these five with MLB experience, but like Montero, he hasn’t been a reliable bullpen option at this level since 2022. Of the other four, Cohen is the name to focus on. He posted a 1.76 ERA in 2025 between Double-A and Triple-A, with the red flag being a 14% walk rate at both levels.

The only other non-roster invitees on the roster are Michael Arias and Yovanny Cruz. Arias spent four years in the Cubs organization between 2021-24 before signing a minor-league contract with the Yankees for 2025. Arias pitched just 29.2 innings last season, but did so across four levels and ended the season with Double-A Somerset. Cruz took a two-year hiatus in 2020 & 2021 due in part to COVID-19 and Tommy John surgery, and never pitched more than 30 innings in a season again until logging 59.1 innings in Double-A last year as part of the Red Sox organization.

Fans had a more recent look at Hueston Morrill and Brady Kirtner during the Arizona Fall League, but both pitchers should be around the Double-A level for most of the year. Most pitchers who are already classified as relievers at this point in their careers that have a chance to contribute to the big-league team this season are at or near the top of the organization. The dozen or so pitchers atop the depth chart are the ones who should contribute in the Bronx for the foreseeable future.

Kansas City News: A sense of urgency for the new stadium

Quinton Lucas gave a State of the City address and noted his desire to keep the Royals in KCMO. John Sherman had some comments.

Word got back to Royals owner John Sherman. On Monday, Sherman addressed Lucas’ speech and offered his takeaway. “I appreciate him wanting to do that,” Sherman said. “And I appreciate that he is working very hard at that. I appreciate the work he is doing. You know, we’re not settled yet anywhere, but I would tell you, I don’t think we are that far away.”

Anne Rogers also covered Sherman’s comments.

“I’ve got a great sense of urgency on this. Time is not our friend. When the Chiefs made their announcement [to move to Kansas] in December, there was a whole new wave of enthusiasm on the Missouri side. And I don’t mean they weren’t working hard, but from the governor on down, there’s a lot of effort being put forth. We’re still evaluating Kansas, and we’re still evaluating multiple locations in Missouri, but I do appreciate the effort that’s being put forth, not only by the mayor but by the governor.”

Anne wrote about the vibes going into Spring Training as a player-led meeting took place.

“We’ve always kind of talked about it, but we’ve never really had our own kind of philosophy,” shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. said. “We just believe if everyone abides by that and comes together to do that, then I think we have the right team, players, staff, to go a long way.”

Instead of an explanation from the front office or staff, this year it was a group of players delivering the message – something they’ve wanted to do for a few years now, Witt said.

“The 2014-15 teams, they had an identity,” Witt said. “What’s our identity? What’s it going to be? We can do this because I think the team we have is special. Everyone believes it, and it’s going to go a long way.”

Jaylon Thompson talks to Bobby Witt Jr about playing in the upcoming World Baseball Classic against some of his own teammates.

“It’s always fun getting to face up against those guys,” Witt said. “You saw it whenever Kobe (Bryant) was doing it with Team USA — he (plowed through) a screen through Paul Gasol or whoever it was. When you are out there, you’re trying to win. That’s what my mantra is. They’re teammates now, and when that comes, we’re still teammates. “But for me, I always want to win.”

Preston Farr writes about the Royals’ signing of John Means to a two-year minor league deal.

After 2021, the health deteriorated for Means. He underwent Tommy John Surgery in April 2022. He worked his way back, reaching the big leagues briefly in 2023 before undergoing a second Tommy John Surgery in June 2024. That would spell the end of his time in Baltimore, signing a two-year contract with Cleveland before 2025. Means worked his way back, making seven minor league starts for the Guardians a season ago. Then, in December, while training, Means ruptured his Achilles just weeks after he saw his $6 million 2026 club option declined.

For the Royals, that means Means (well, that felt weird to type) will miss all of 2026 and hope to contribute in 2027. By that point, he will be in his age-33 season and two full seasons removed from any MLB action. It will be five seasons since he had any lengthy MLB time under his belt, making him a worthwhile dart throw, but hardly someone that fans should be locking in their memory bank as a key piece of the team’s 2027 plans.

Over at Royals Keep, Kevin O’Brien explores Royals catcher framing metrics.

Jacob Milham writes about the AL Central race.

AJ Preller will keep slinging trades as the guy in charge of the Padres for longer, as he signed an extension.

The Mets signed Mike Tauchman.

Walker Buehler goes to the Padres on a minor league deal.

Mike Trout wants to return to center field.

Twins pitcher Pablo López experienced soreness in his elbow and will get an MRI.

The Miami Dolphins released former Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill on Monday.

As expected, the US women’s hockey team will face Canada for the gold medal.

Off Topic: My kid fell into the creek playing at the park yesterday. Small creek, so he’s fine, no issues, just got wet. Every kid’s gotta get wet in the creek at some point.

Your song of the day is Above & Beyond with On My Way To Heaven

Tuesday Rockpile: Brett Pill takes a swing at the Rockies hitting problems

CLEARWATER, FL - MARCH 05: Brett Pill (84) of the Tigers is congratulated in the dugout after hitting a home run during the spring training game between the Detroit Tigers and the Philadelphia Phillies on March 05, 2017 at Spectrum Field in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The 2025 Colorado Rockies led in a number of categories that most MLB teams would prefer not to lead.

A case in point would be their Chase%, where the Rockies had an MLB-worst 31.7%. (The league average was 28.2%.) Learning to be more disciplined and discerning at the plate is a central challenge for the rebuilding Rockies.

Good news, everyone! There’s a plan.

Over the weekend, Rockies hitting coach Brett Pill explained how the Rockies intend to take on this challenge in the coming season; it involves using data, communication, and individualized instruction.

“Honestly, there’s no cookie-cutter-type approach to hitting,” Pill said. “You kind of take what the hitters do well and build on it, and then over time, closing up some of those weaknesses and things we can improve on.”

The approach varies depending on the issue and the player.

“You do that through stuff in the weight room and stuff with their swing and stuff with data,” Pill said. “So use every resource possible to help them have a solution for every type of pitcher and situation and thing they might encounter in the big leagues. It’s not always the best, sexiest answer.”

But it all starts with clear communication.

“Obviously, you’ve got to build relationships with each guy and know what makes them tick, what sports they played when they were younger. And so there’s a lot that goes into it.”

What about one of the first dragons the Rockies must slay, those unsightly chase rates? Pill sees a specialized, multi-pronged approach.

“Some guys, it could be an approach and what they’re looking for. Maybe they’re trying to hit every pitch the guy throws,” Pill said. “It could be mechanical. It could be how they’re moving at that certain point in time, which maybe we do stuff in the weight room for it.”

In addition to physical factors, players may need to address less-tangible issues.

“Obviously,” Pill said, “there’s an emotional part of chase, too. Sometimes you’re worried [the pitcher] might throw fastball middle-in, so you’re cheating. There’s an emotional-psychological aspect, too. Some guys sometimes get a little safe and actually swing and miss more. So some guys, you are are going to encourage, ‘Hey, let’s kind of let it go a little bit.’ Actually, (we’ve seen) a few different cases of that with different guys already, so it’s kind of cool to see. You try to get in there in different ways with different people, and hopefully on the whole general scale, it improves all that.”

Everything comes back to knowing players and providing personalized instruction.

“It’s not like a there’s a thing I can say on a whole team-wide scale that’s going to help the chase,” he said. “It’s you try to get in there in different ways with different people.”

Then there’s the matter of helping Rockies hitters learn to adjust to the challenges of elevation.

“I think most teams that come in see it as an advantage, so definitely need to keep that thought process at home: The ball does fly. It might move a little bit different,” Pill said. “So maybe the way we train before games, or how we visualize pitches we’re going to get will be a little different. The challenge seems to be when you leave there and then how balls are moving more.”

And he’s been working with some seasoned Rockies veterans.

“There’s a lot of good people here who went through it, like Charlie Blackmon, Matt Holliday — a lot of people who I’ve have already been been talking to and listening to the players, too, about it.”

He added, “Obviously (assistant hitting coach) Jordan Pacheco went through it. So I’m leaning on them a lot, to be honest. I think we’re going use it to our advantage at home, and then we’ll figure it out on the road.”

Pill especially enjoys the teaching component of coaching.

“It’s just constant teaching,” he said. “Even today in some of the live at-bats, it’s like, ‘Hey, what were you thinking on this pitch?’ How can we get ahead of that and give a feedback loop to it, constantly teaching and learning from them.”

Like the best teachers, Pill sees himself as a lifelong learner.

“I don’t want to sit here and say I’m going to teach them everything,” Pill said. “I’m going to learn from them — maybe things I learned from the players, I apply to other guys in the future. So that’s why I love it so much. It’s just constantly helping guys get better because I remember being like an up-down guy and trying to break in. I had a lot of good coaches, too, but sometimes, you wish you just someone was always there with you every step of the way.”

He also shares manager Warren Schaeffer’s commitment to connection and communication.

“You might have the best info ever,” Pill said, “but if they don’t really feel that connection and know that you want the best for them and know that you’re at home thinking about ways to get them better every night, it doesn’t really hit.”

Then there’s the matter of working with a young team.

“They’re all physically gifted,” Pill said. “It’s honestly kind of crazy to come in here, and I feel like I’m looking up at everyone, and they’re all really strong and fast, and so there’s a lot of really good athletes.”

Prior to joining the Rockies, Pill was a hitting coach in the Los Angeles Dodgers minor-league system.

Third baseman (and long-time denizen of the Dodgers clubhouse) Kyle Karros is happy to see Pill on the Rockies coaching staff.

“I’ve done a lot of work with [Pill], our hitting coach,” Karros said. “He’s obviously one of those guys who came over from the Dodgers, and we’ve been seeing eye-to-eye a ton. I’m hitting the ball harder than I’ve ever hit it. Things are going really well offensively for me so far. So I really like what we’re doing.”

Some of what he learned from the Dodgers, Pill’s bringing with him to Colorado.

“They obviously do some really good things on the game-planning side, preparing for pitchers, obviously really good there. So [we’ll] use some of that stuff here, in addition to what they’ve already been doing.”

Then he added, “But the main thing over there, as far as with player development, was being extremely curious and creative and, again, not just going by the standard stuff. So that’s what I hope to bring here and inspire people to do, too, is just be obsessive with trying to get people better, use every avenue possible, and just never stop grinding.”

In moving the Rockies, Pill will continue working with former Dodger and current general manager Josh Byrnes, who, as Pills puts is, “is invested in hitting and knows his stuff.”

“When I heard he wanted to bring me along over here,” Pill said, “it was definitely hard to pass up because he’s great. He remembers everything he’s ever seen on a baseball field. I pick his brain all the time.”

Schaeffer is positive about what Pill brings to the Rockies.

“He’s fantastic,” Schaeffer said. “He has a really, really solid background. He has just been fantastic so far in there in terms of his preparation and what he’s working with the guys on.”

Plus, for Schaeffer, Pill’s outside perspective plus Pacheco’s inside knowledge give the Rockies a powerful combination.

“It’s important to have a balance. (Getting) outside ideas from from Pill is going to be a huge, huge factor, in terms of everything, actually — in terms of how you teach hitting, in terms of culture, the whole thing.”

He concluded, “It’s going to be a good combo.”


This week on the internet

That is all.


Which teams improved the most this winter? | MLB.com

Mike Petriello gets it (and what’s a reasonable expectation for a rebuilding team).

Offseason grades for all 30 MLB teams | The Ringer

Anthony Dabbundo, not so much.


Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Chicago Cubs news and notes — Counsell, Davis, Miller, Ricketts

“If you look at baseball right now, there’s a lot of really nice tailwinds. Attendance is up, ratings are up. There’s a lot of things going in the right direction. We’ve got a lot of good young stars and exciting young players, and that’s all going well.

“There are some challenges. The regional sports network model has been under pressure for the last few years. Certain teams felt it the most this offseason, and it’ll take a while for it to work out, but it’s certainly a challenge for the entire league.” — Tom Ricketts.

Marquee had a series of player interviews — here’s the playlist. (FYI, I will remove these periodically.) Lots more video below.

Brett Taylor had some words about the Ben Cowles DFA in his bullets, where he speculated that the reassignment bid might be about Cowles/Owen Miller more than Steele. I dunno. Miller’s 29 and has had enough cups of coffee to equal just about two MLB seasons. and the data isn’t prepossessing. But maybe. I think they’re just doing it now to avoid waiver claims, which are unlikely with everyone at full-40 this early. Miller isn’t better than Cowles, or Triantos, or Ramirez, which I think is the depth order behind Shaw.

As always, developments. We practice patience.

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Food For Thought:

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series. We will not wittingly publish A. I. – driven articles or clickbait, and insist on unimpeachable sources.

What makes a top 25 starting pitcher? Do Nolan McLean or Nick Pivetta have a case?

Every fantasy baseball season, we look for new ways to find value in drafts. Maybe there's a new metric that's been released or a new way to calculate playing time more accurately. Whatever it is, we're hunting for that edge. But what if the key to figuring out the future is just looking to the past?

For my presentation at First Pitch Arizona this year, I did a deep dive into last year's top 25 starting pitchers. Where were they generally drafted? Were there overlapping skillsets? Were they strikeout pitchers or command pitchers? How many innings did they need to throw? My goal was simply to find any common threads that would help us identify the markers that could lead us to this year's top 25 starting pitchers.

I've now taken that presentation and turned it into an article. Below, you'll find nine traits last year's top 25 all had in common, some trends for top 25 starting pitchers over the last few years, and breakdowns of a few fringe top 25 arms and my verdict on whether they'll end up crossing the threshold or not. So let's dive in.

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Top 25 Starting Pitchers from 2025

  1. Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers
  2. Garrett Crochet - Boston Red Sox
  3. Paul Skenes - Pittsburgh Pirates
  4. Bryan Woo - Seattle Mariners
  5. Hunter Brown - Houston Astros
  6. Cristopher Sanchez - Philadelphia Phillies
  7. Freddy Peralta - Milwaukee Brewers (at the time)
  8. Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Los Angeles Dodgers
  9. Nathan Eovaldi - Texas Rangers
  10. Carlos Rodon - New York Yankees
  11. Max Fried - New York Yankees
  12. Jacob deGrom - Texas Rangers
  13. Nick Pivetta - San Diego Padres
  14. Zack Wheeler - Philadelphia Phillies
  15. Trevor Rogers - Baltimore Orioles
  16. Joe Ryan - Minnesota Twins
  17. Matthew Boyd - Chicago Cubs
  18. Drew Rasmussen - Tampa Bay Rays
  19. Logan Webb - San Francisco Giants
  20. Chris Sale - Atlanta Braves
  21. Hunter Greene - Cincinnati Reds
  22. Kevin Gausman - Toronto Blue Jays
  23. Andrew Abbott - Cincinnati Reds
  24. Cade Horton - Chicago Cubs
  25. Merrill Kelly - Diamondbacks/Rangers (at the time)

Obviously, as is the case every year, injuries played a big role in determining the top 25 starting pitchers. A large number of pitchers who were ranked inside the top 25 heading into the season missed large chunks of time with injury: Logan Gilbert, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Cole Ragans, Michael King, Pablo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Bryce Miller, Aaron Nola, Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, and Gerrit Cole.

Where did we draft the top 25 starting pitchers?

While we often think that we need to spend an early-round draft pick in order to land a fantasy ace, the average ADP of the top 25 starting pitchers was 182.3 (taken from NFBC's Online Championship data, 12-team leagues). Only six of the top 25 starting pitchers were drafted inside the top 50 picks, and another six were drafted between picks 51 and 100. Perhaps more surprisingly, there were seven pitchers who finished inside the top 25 who were drafted outside the top 200 picks. While this has been a trend in recent years, and I've written an article about it in past seasons, the number of late-round pitchers who produced top 25 value was larger than ever last season.

Some of that was obviously due to the injuries we mentioned above, so you don't need to modify your draft strategy to only select starters outside of the top 200 picks, but it does continue to show that plenty of starting pitching value can be found later in the draft. Of those pitchers, many of them (Trevor Rogers, Matthew Boyd, Dre Rasmussen, Cade Horton) were drafted late because there were concerns about their projected volume. Perhaps banking on talent over roles with those late-round picks continues to be the way to go.

What traits did the top 25 starting pitchers have in common?

Trait 1: Innings pitched

Amongst the top 25 starting pitchers, the average innings pitched was 170. What's more, 14 of the top 25 had at least 175 innings pitched, and only five of them pitched 130 innings or fewer (Eovaldi, Rogers, Sale, Greene, Horton). If we also look at their track record, 17 of the top 25 starting pitchers from last year have had only one or no seasons with under 120 innings as a starting pitcher, and only five of them have more than two seasons in their careers with under 120 innings (Eovaldi, Rodon, deGrom, Boyd, Sale).

LESSON LEARNED: When identifying a potential top 25 starting pitcher, we want to target pitchers with at least a somewhat reliable track record of durability. It seems like being able to pitch consistently over 120 innings gives you a good chance to put together a season with enough innings to crack the top 25.

Trait 2a: Strikeout upside

Amongst the top 25 starting pitchers, the average total strikeouts was 181. Nine of them had at least 200 strikeouts. While some of that is obviously tied to the durability topic we mentioned above, the average swinging strike rate (SwStr%) for the top 25 SP was 13.7%. That's significantly better than the league average for starting pitchers, which was 11%. In fact, only Drew Rasmussen had a SwStr% that was below the league average, and only five of the top 25 starting pitchers had a SwStr% under 12% (Kelly, Boyd, Pivetta, Webb, Rasmussen). What's more, 11 of the top 25 starting pitchers had a SwStr% of 14% or better.

LESSON LEARNED: It’s hard to be a top 25 SP with a below-average SwStr%. There isn't an exact mark we should strive for because the league average changes each season, but we can make 12% our cut-off.

Trait 2b: Strikeout upside fueled by secondary pitches

This is kind of a subset of the previous, so we'll make them part of the same overall trait. While general strikeout upside is important, I believe it's equally important that we identify pitchers who have an elite secondary pitch. This gives us an extra layer of security rather than relying on pitchers who get by with just a dominant fastball. Last season, the average SwStr% for the top 25 starting pitchers on their most-used secondary pitch was 19.3%. Nine of those top 25 pitchers had a primary secondary pitch with at least a 20% SwStr%, and 14 of them had one with at least a 19% mark. That means 56% of all of the top 25 starting pitchers in fantasy baseball last year had a most-used secondary offering with at least a 19% SwStr%. That sounds like a pretty important criterion we should be looking for.

On the other end of the spectrum, only four of those top 25 starting pitchers didn’t have a single secondary pitch with at least a 15% SwStr% (Paul Skenes, Joe Ryan, Drew Rasmussen, Andrew Abbott). Skenes obviously throws multiple fastballs that can miss bats, and Joe Ryan famously has a dominant fastball, but the other two pitchers were just on the fringe of the top 25 and probably would not have made it in without multiple injuries.

LESSON LEARNED: A top 25 starting pitcher likely needs a dominant swing-and-miss pitch for strikeouts that is not some form of a fastball. That pitch also needs to be one that they use over 10% of the time.

Trait 3: Hit Suppression

People will try to tell you that pitchers are not responsible for hit suppression, but I promise you that those people didn't pitch or catch at a level where pitch mix and pitch sequencing truly matter. Pitchers absolutely have a hand in suppressing hits based on mixing and matching pitches and locations to keep hitters off the barrel. Good pitchers can limit hits with overpowering stuff or with plus command.

Last year, the average hits per nine innings allowed among the top 25 starting pitchers was 6.9, which was significantly better than the league average for starting pitchers, which was 8.5. Thirteen of the top 25 starting pitchers had a H/9 below 7.0, and only six of them had a H/9 of 7.5 or higher. In fact, only one top 25 starting pitcher had a below-average H/9. It was Logan Webb, who posted a 9.1 and was a big reason why his WHIP didn't help you as much as you wanted it to last season.

LESSON LEARNED: Hits per nine might be a stat that we overlook when identifying top starting pitchers

Trait 4: Relative Command

I say "relative command" rather than command because pitchers with high strikeout totals often throw a lot of pitches outside the strike zone to induce chases and whiffs. We're OK with that if we're getting strikeouts, so we don't just want command as much as we want command that is above-average when also factoring in the amount of strikeout upside we get with it. A good stat for relative command is K-BB% because it factors in walk rate, but only does so as it relates to how many batters you strike out. To me, that's more important than just looking at zone rates or walk rates.

Last season, the average K-BB% among the top 25 starting pitchers was 20.4%. Another stat in which they were, unsurprisingly, well above the league average for starting pitchers, which was 14%. Five of the top 25 had a K-BB% higher than 25% and 14 of them had a K-BB% higher than 20%. That's, again, 56% of the top 25 starting pitchers who were at least 6% above league average in K-BB%. Only five of those top 25 starting pitchers had a K-BB% under 16.5%, which is still above league average (Horton, Boyd, Rasmussen, Abbott, Kelly), and only one of them had a below-average K-BB% (Merrill Kelly at 13.4%).

If you look at walk rate alone, only three of the top 25 starting pitchers finished in the top 10 in walk rate, and only four of the top 25 finished in the top 15. So walk rate didn't correlate well to overall fantasy baseball success.

LESSON LEARNED: Command relative to strikeout upside is more important than just good command. Searching for pitchers with the highest K-BB% is one of the best ways to find potential top-performing starting pitchers.

Trait 5: Impactful fastball

I've long been a believer that it's hard for a pitcher to be above-average without a good fastball to fall back on. Last year's top 25 starting pitchers seem to validate that. If we look at the raw stuff on the fastball, the average four-seam fastball velocity among the top 25 starting pitchers last year was 95.1 mph. That was 1.0 mph faster than the league average for starting pitchers. Ten of the top 25 averaged 95.5 mph or faster on their four-seam fastball, and only seven of them had below-average four-seam velocity (Pivetta, Rogers, Boyd, Ryan, Webb, Abbott, and Kelly). All of those pitchers succeeded because they either had plus extension/vertical movement, at least five pitches in their arsenal, or an elite left-handed change-up to pair with their fastball.

If we go beyond pure stuff, the top 25 starting pitchers, on average, threw their primary fastball (four-seam or sinker) 41% of the time. Ten of them threw it at least 45% of the time, which shows us that a good portion of the top 25 starting pitchers rely heavily on their fastball for success. Going beyond that, ten of them also had three variations of fastball, and only five of them throw just one fastball type (Sanchez, Peralta, deGrom, Greene, Gausman). Of course, deGrom and Greene have showcased historically good fastballs, and Gausman is a primary splitter pitcher, so it makes sense that those guys didn't use multiple fastball variations; although, it would be nice if Gausman could learn one.

LESSON LEARNED: If a pitcher doesn’t have a reliable, high-velocity fastball, it’s hard to be in the top 25. A deep pitch mix or multiple fastball variations will help to offset the lack of an elite fastball, and lefties without high velocity can often get by if they have an elite changeup or multiple fastball variations.

Trait 6: Fastball command

In addition to having a high-velocity fastball, a top 25 starting pitcher can usually command their fastball well. The average four-seam fastball zone rate among the top 25 starting pitchers last year was 56.1%, which is above the league average for starters at 53%. It's important to note that this is above the league but not exceptionally so, which goes back to our earlier point that command is important relative to strikeout upside, but the top 25 starting pitchers will not likely be the pitchers with the best pinpoint command. However, only four starting pitchers last year had a four-seam fastball zone rate under 50% (Crochet, Pivetta, Peralta, Brown), and seven of them had a four-seam fastball zone rate of 60% or better.

LESSON LEARNED: Not only does fastball velocity count, but fastball command is important too. If a pitcher gets behind regularly, it’s harder for them to get strikeouts and prevent hits. We don't need to look for ELITE fastball command, but it should at least be better than average.

Trait 7: Deep pitch mix

When Eno Sarris first debuted Stuff+, he said there was a point where pitchers with deep pitch mixes often outperformed their Stuff+ grades. For him, that was when a pitcher had six pitches that they threw regularly. We have now seen a trend in the league where pitchers are starting to add multiple fastball variations to their arsenal to diversify their pitch mix. All of this, plus my experience as a catcher calling pitches, tells me that a pitcher with more pitches in their arsenal is often set up for more success.

Last season, on average, the top 25 starting pitchers featured a pitch mix of 5.04 pitches they used over 10% of the time. Nine of them regularly throw at least six pitches, and only three of them throw only three pitches (Sanchez, Greene, and Gausman). Gausman is primarily a splitter pitcher, and those pitchers often don't have deep pitch mixes, but they are also volatile because they depend so much on the splitter. Greene is also a bit of a rare case because his fastball and slider are so good that he can be dominant without a deep pitch mix, like pre-injury Spencer Strider.

LESSON LEARNED: Having a deeper pitch mix gives a starting pitcher more wiggle room, which often leads to more success. Having a deep pitch mix plus velocity and fastball command is a top 25 recipe.

Trait 8: High pitch mix grade

Even though "stuff" grades are not an exact science, we accept the basic premise that pitchers with elite raw stuff put themselves in an advantageous position. Yes, they will also need some semblance of command, but their elite stuff gives them a higher floor to work from than pitchers with lesser stuff. For me, when I use stuff grades, I like to usePitcher List's PLV metric because location is factored into the grade, whereas Stuff+ needs a separate Location+ metric to evaluate the command of a specific pitch.

The average PLV grade for the top 25 starting pitchers last year was 5.12, while the MLB average for starting pitchers was 5.01. Among qualified starters, eight of the top 10 PLV grades among starting pitchers were pitchers who finished in the top 25 overall. You can expand that, as 12 of the top 15 PLV grades belonged to pitchers who finished in the top 25 in fantasy baseball. Additionally, 12 of the top 25 starting pitchers had a PLV grade of at least 5.15, and only five of them finished with a below-average PLV grade (Brown, Boyd, Horton, Rogers, and Rodon). We should note that models tend not to like changeups, and those last four pitchers had strong changeups in 2025, so they may have been unfairly penalized.

LESSON LEARNED: Relying on pure stuff is great, but being able to properly execute a pitch mix is likely more valuable, so using a stuff metric that takes location into account may be more useful for projecting fantasy success. Overall PLV grades may be a good indicator of fantasy baseball success.

Trait 9: Pitch mix to attack both right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters

In addition to having pitches that grade out well individually, I believe a starting pitcher must have a clear attack plan to both right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters. That means that, for a starting pitcher to have fantasy success, they must have a pitch they can throw for strikes to all hitters and a whiff pitch they can use for all hitters, and, preferably, a deeper arsenal around that to keep hitters off rhythm. So when we say a pitcher is a four-pitch pitcher, does that mean they have four pitches in total, but only throw two of them to lefties? Or does it mean they use four pitches to both righties and lefties? That's important to distinguish how deep their pitch mix truly is.

On average, last season, the top 25 starters had 3.6 distinct pitches for righties and 3.48 for lefties. Eleven of the top 25 starters had AT LEAST four distinct pitches for hitters of each handedness, and every single top 25 starting pitcher throws at least three pitches to EITHER righties or lefties at least 10% of the time. What's more, only four of the top 25 starters didn’t haveat least three distinct pitches for BOTH lefties and righties (deGrom, Pivetta, Greene, and Gausman). We already spoke earlier about how deGrom and Greene are rare cases because of their elite raw stuff, and that Gausman is an especially volatile starter because of his over-reliance on his splitter.

LESSON LEARNED: If a pitcher doesn’t have multiple, proven ways to attack both righties and lefties, it’s hard to finish in the top 25.

New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies
Corbin Carroll, Francisco Lindor, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Jackson Holliday are among the injuries to watch in our latest update.

Top 25 starting pitcher trends over the years

 

2025

2024

2023

2022

SwStr%

13.7

12.9

12.4

12.3

K-BB%

20.4

18.9

19.6

20.0

CSW

29.9

28.6

28.6

29.2

FF Velo

95.1 mph

94.4 mph

94.8 mph

94.4 mph

Location+

104.6

104.2

103.5

101.6

IP

169.7

182.5

186.2

184.2

As you can see from this simple chart, the innings threshold to finish inside the top 25 starting pitchers has been decreasing over the years. As strikeouts have increased and pitchers' workloads have decreased, it is no longer necessary to pitch 180+ innings to be a top 25 starting pitcher. Of course, it certainly helps.

We're also seeing that pitchers who finish in the top 25 starting pitchers on the season have an increasingly strong swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and CSW. This means that swing-and-miss stuff is more connected to top 25 finishes than it was a few years ago, which shouldn't be a surprising revelation.

Red flags to avoid when identifying potential top 25 starting pitchers

So, we've talked about a few good signs for starting pitchers, but what are some red flags that we want to avoid if we're projecting a pitcher to finish inside the top 25 overall?

  • A low SwStr% is bad, but it can be made up for with a deep pitch mix since all of the top 25 starting pitchers with a sub 12% SwStr% throw at least five pitches
  • Having low fastball velocity is bad, but it can be managed with plus command.
  • Having a low SwStr% on a primary secondary pitch is hard to cover for and is a major red flag.
  • Low innings totals are a red flag, but if you have high strikeout upside, then 120-130 innings can be the floor

So, who are some pitchers that we might want to avoid ranking in the top 25 this upcoming season based on those red flags?

  • Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers: He has just one season over 120 innings in his career.
  • Blake Snell, Dodgers: He has only two seasons over 130 innings in his career, and he may be delayed to start the season.
  • Dylan Cease, Blue Jays: His four-seam fastball command was 8th percentile last year. It's hard to be a consistent starter if you can't command your fastball.
  • Freddy Peralta, Mets: His four-seam fastball command was 18th percentile last year, but he has succeeded at that rate before. He may be an exception.
  • Spencer Strider, Braves: His four-seam fastball regressed immensely post-surgery in both velocity and command.

Top 25 starting pitcher locks for 2026

Based on everything we discussed above, here are the pitchers I feel confident about sliding into the top 25 in my rankings.

  1. Tarik Skubal
  2. Garrett Crochet
  3. Paul Skenes
  4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
  5. Max Fried
  6. Jacob deGrom
  7. Hunter Greene
  8. Hunter Brown
  9. Cristopher Sanchez
  10. Freddy Peralta
  11. Bryan Woo
  12. Joe Ryan
  13. Chris Sale
  14. Logan Webb
  15. George Kirby
  16. Shohei Ohtani
  17. Cole Ragans
  18. Logan Gilbert
  19. Kyle Bradish

I would feel similarly good about having Pablo Lopez in here, but he ended last year on the IL, so I need to see him throw a few times in spring training before I go ahead and put him in there. Nathan Eovaldi is another potential candidate, but we know that innings totals and injuries have always been risks for him. So, with all that said, who are the other starting pitchers I feel good about ending the season in the top 25?

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Potential top 25 starting pitchers for 2026 fantasy baseball

Eury Perez - Miami Marlins

Few pitchers in this section of the article have the upside that Perez does. The average swinging strike rate (SwStr%) for the top 25 starting pitchers last year was 13.7%, and Perez posted a 14.8% rate. He did have a 19% strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%), which was below the 20.4% mark that was the average for the top 25 last year. However, last year was Perez's first year coming off Tommy John surgery, so some rust with command was expected. He has a five-pitch mix that features a sweeper with a 22.2% SwStr% to righties and a harder slider with 21% swinging strike rate to lefties. We know his velocity is great, and his four-seam fastball also had a 59% zone rate, which was well above league average. My only concern with Perez is innings, but I feel like he could become a top 25 starter even if he only throws 150 innings this season.

VERDICT: Locked into my top 25.

Nick Pivetta - San Diego Padres

Nick Pivetta finished inside the top 25 last year after pitching to a 2.87 ERA. However, that was his first season ever with an ERA under 4.00, so we have to wonder how sustainable that was. Pivetta posted just a 10.5% SwStr% and has a career 10.7% mark, so when you pair that with a four-seam fastball with below-average velocity and command, it's not an ideal combination, even though the four-seamer does get whiffs up in the zone. He also posted a 19% K-BB%, which is fine but below the average for top 25 starting pitchers last season. Pivetta does throw a cutter and uses it primarily to righties as an early-strike pitch. He has a sweeper that posted a 20% SwStr% to righties, which we like, but has no swing-and-miss pitch for lefties. In fact, he's really just a two-pitch pitcher to lefties, throwing his four-seamer 52% of the time and a curve 38% of the time. That curve had just a 6.4% SwStr% to lefties. All of that worries me. I know he has a pitch mix that grades out well by PLV, but it's a far narrower mix than we believe, and I think much of his success can just be attributed to his HR/FB rate dropping to 9.7% after being over 15% for his career.

VERDICT: I don't think there is enough strikeout upside or a deep enough pitch mix to left-handed hitters to warrant a spot in the top 25 for Pivetta, but he's close.

Drew Rasmussen - Tampa Bay Rays

Drew Rasmussen also finished inside the top 25 last year, but he was one of the names that kept coming up the most when I looked at pitchers who were below the average of the group. He had just a 10.8% SwStr% and a 15.4% K-BB%. He's essentially just a three-pitch pitcher, with 90% of his pitch mix coming from his four-seamer, cutter, and sinker. That's 90% of his arsenal being three different variations of a fastball. He also has never pitched more than 150 innings in a season. Yet, there are also some things to like. His fastball has above-average velocity, league-average command, and a flat attack angle that allows it to miss bats. His cutter eats up lefties and also posts a 16.5% SwStr% against them, and his sinker just gets beat into the ground by righties. His cutter does act like a hard slider and had an 11.3% SwStr% against righties too, but his sweeper does not get many whiffs. That means he has the same whiff pitch to both righties and lefties and relies a lot on his fastball to miss bats. That will always make it hard for him to have the strikeout numbers to earn a spot in the top 25, especially given his innings concerns.

VERDICT: Rasmussen has a safe floor given his 2.76 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his 389.2 career innings as a starter. I think he has proven that he can induce weak contact, but his strikeout rate is likely capped around 22%, which means that it's hard to envision his overall strikeout totals being much higher than 130 with his innings concerns. That all still makes him a fringe top 25 arm, however.

Nolan McLean - New York Mets

Many people have McLean ranked the highest of the young starting pitchers (Chase Burns, Cam Schlittler, etc.), but I may throw some cold water on that. Yes, McLean had a 21.3% K-BB% last year and has a 95 mph sinker that he can pound the zone with, which suggests both strikeout upside and hit suppression. However, I'm not so sure the strikeout upside is as good as everybody is anticipating. For starters, his 12% SwStr% last year was almost 2% below the average for the top 25 starting pitchers. His primary secondary pitch to righties is his sweeper, which he threw 32% of the time to righties; however, that pitch had just a 5.8% swinging-strike rate against right-handed hitters. That's, um, not good. His curve did register a 24.3% swinging-strike rate against righties, but he throws it to them just 11% of the time, and it had just a league-average putaway rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch ends in a strikeout. I do like that he has six pitches and three fastball variations, but his pitch mix, according to PLV, also grades out below the league average for starting pitchers.

VERDICT: I'm concerned by the lack of true out pitch against righties. Last year, McLean had just a 10.6% SwStr% to righties, and the sweeper does not look like a pitch that's designed to miss bats. I like his general approach, but those execution and strikeout concerns have me more tepid on him than some of the other analysts out there, and I would not put him near my top 25.

Framber Valdez - Detroit Tigers

For many people, Framber Valdez is a top 25 lock. I've never been as big a fan, and there are a few reasons for it. For starters, I don't believe there's as much strikeout upside with Valdez. Last season, he had a SwStr% of 12.6, but the average SwStr% for the top 25 SP was 13.7%. He also had a K-BB% of 14.8% in 2025, where the average K-BB% among the top 25 starting pitchers was 20.4%. That's a pretty stark difference. He does have a sinker that he commands well in the zone, a pitch mix that grades out well by PLV, and a history of solid hit suppression, which are all things we like. However, he has only one fastball variation and is essentially just a two-pitch pitcher against lefties. His main secondary pitch to righties and lefties is the same one, his curve, which had a 20.8% SwStr% to right-handed hitters and a 18.4% SwStr% to left-handed hitters.

VERDICT: Valdez's muted strikeout upside and his more limited pitch mix cause him to rely so heavily on his curveball for success. That makes him a fringe top 25 arm who is often ranked too high.

Nick Lodolo - Cincinnati Reds

I've always been a fan of Lodolo's, but I can't truly put my finger on why. Maybe it's the gangly left-handed delivery or the strikeout potential, but I enjoy watching him pitch, so it was nice to see a bit of a breakout season for him last year. His 13.8% SwStr% fits right in line with a typical top 25 starting pitcher, and he has dynamic weapons in a curveball that registered a 19.4% SwStr% to lefties and 20.7% SwStr% to righties and a changeup that also had a 15.5% SwStr% to righties. Lodolo has a four-pitch mix that grades out well according to PLV and has also led to tremendous hit suppression over the last two seasons, with a 7.9 H/9 that's well below the 8.5 H/9 league average for starting pitchers in 2025. His fastball command is slightly below average, which led to a 19.4% K-BB% that's a touch below the mark we want to see from a top 25 arm, and paired with his brutal home park, makes him a little bit more of a risk than some of the other names in this section.

VERDICT: Lodolo's command and home park work against him, but he has plus secondaries and the strikeout upside required to consider him a fringe top 25 arm who should be ranked higher in most places.

Ryan Pepiot - Tampa Bay Rays

Pepiot hit a career high of 167.2 innings last year in his second year with the Rays. That came with a 13% SwStr% and 15.6% K-BB%, which were both actually below the threshold for top 25 starting pitchers that we discussed above. However, I think there is more swing and miss in his arsenal. His four-seam fastball has good velocity at 95.2 mph with strong extension and a flat attack angle, so he gets lots of swings and misses up in the zone. It had both an above-average swinging strike rate and putaway rate in 2025. He has a 12.5% SwStr% against right-handed hitters with both his slider and cutter, which is slightly below where we'd like, but, again, his four-seamer is a true whiff pitch for righties. His changeup had a near 14% SwStr% to lefties, and the cutter is a nice strike pitch to lefties, so I like the depth of his overall pitch and his ability to get whiffs for both righties and lefties.

His entire arsenal grades out well on PLV, and his overall hits per nine innings allowed is good, with a 7.2 mark last year and a 6.9 career mark. The issue is that home runs have been an issue for him in the past, with a 1.4 HR/9 and nearly 14% HR/FB last year. However, we have to keep in mind that he was pitching in a minor league ballpark last year. In his first season at Tropicana Field, his HR/FB was just 11%, and his HR/9 was 1.18. The move back to Tropicana Field will help him in 2026, and we could see his ERA fall back to the 3.50 range with a potential uptick in strikeouts.

VERDICT: The strikeout totals haven't been where we'd like for Pepiot in the past, but everything under the hood with his arsenal seems to suggest that he has the mix and ability to get there. He's also moving back to a more favorable home park this season, so I think a top 25 season could be in the making.

Jacob Misiorowski - Milwaukee Brewers

Misiorowski is a popular breakout candidate after posting a 32% strikeout rate in 66 innings in his MLB debut last year. It's not hard to see the strikeout potential here. Misiorowski has a 99 mph four-seam fastball and posted a 14.8% SwStr% and 21% K-BB% last year, both of which are above the average mark we saw for the top 25 starting pitchers in 2025. His four-pitch mix graded out really well, according to PLV, and he allowed just 7.0 hits per nine innings last year, which was well above the 8.5 H/9 mark of the league average starting pitchers last season. Misiorowski's curve posted a 20.2% SwStr% to lefties, but his slider had a below-average 11.2% SwStr% to righties. His four-seamer had just a 10.5% SwStr% to righties, but he uses it over 33% of the time in two-strike counts, and it posted an above-average putaway rate, so there isn't much concern about his strikeout upside. He does have league-average four-seam command and just one fastball variation, which are minor concerns heading into 2026.

VERDICT: It would be nice if Misiorowski had shown a legit whiff pitch for righties, but the slider performed fine, and we know the four-seamer can miss bats. My larger issues are that he still has some command risk, which will always make his WHIP a bit of a risk. When you pair that with the fact that his "breakout" in 2025 also came with a 4.24 ERA, I'm just not sure his ratios will push him into the top 25 overall.

Edward Cabrera - Chicago Cubs

Yes, I'm higher on Edward Cabrera than most, but there are a few key reasons for that. For starters, Cabrera made a switch from using his four-seam fastball as his primary fastball to using a sinker. That sinker had a 61.3% zone rate, which is well above average among starting pitchers. That allows Cabrera to get ahead in the count, which he wasn't able to do with his four-seamer, and then set up a slider that has a 19.3% SwStr% to righties and a curve that had a 19.9% SwStr% against lefties. That pair of secondaries has helped him post a 13.2% SwStr%, which is better than what the average top 25 starting pitchers did last year. The move to a sinker also helped his hit suppression, and his 7.3 H/9 for his career is well above-average. However, he still has some overall command concerns, which has led to a 17.5% K-BB% last year that's below what you'd like to see from a top 25 starting pitcher.

VERDICT: Cabrera now has a true five-pitch mix with a fastball that he can command and two plus secondaries. That's a great foundation for a top 25 starting pitcher. However, he has command and injury concerns that keep him just outside the top 25 for me.

Chase Burns - Cincinnati Reds

Few young pitchers are getting as much hype as Chase Burns, and I get it; we all love strikeouts. Burns had four straight games with 10 strikeouts last season and posted a 16.7% SwStr% and 27.1% K-BB% in his MLB innings last year. He did that on the back of a 98.7 mph four-seam fastball and a wipeout slider that posted a 19.2% SwStr% to right-handed hitters and a 29.4% SwStr% to left-handed hitters. Generally speaking, I don't love it when a pitcher has the same swing-and-miss pitch to hitters from both sides of the plate; however, Burns also showed off a changeup that had 16.7% SwStr% to lefties but was just used 10% of the time to those lefties. I'd like to see him use that pitch a little more because he's really just a two-pitch pitcher. Considering his four-seam fastball also gets hit more than you'd like to see, that doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for Burns to find success if one of his primary avenues isn't working.

VERDICT: Burns' limited pitch mix and hard contact rates on his four-seam fastball keep him out of the top 25 for me. That being said, the changeup is lingering there as a solid third pitch, which could really propel him up the rankings, so I'm coming around.