Category: MLB

Good morning and happy Monday everybody! Sorry about the late links! Traffic, am I right?

The Mariners offense took advantage of windy conditions in Sacramento while the piggyback tandem of Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller stifled the A’s offense to cruise to a comfortable 9-2 win. The squad will look to secure a series win behind Emerson Hancock tonight at 6:40!

In Mariners news…

• The Mariners may have won a nice and easy one last night, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t bumps in the road. Luis Castillo started the game and pitched four innings allowing two hits and no runs. Upon learning that he was being lifted to get Bryce Miller into the game for his leg of the piggyback start, Castillo was visibly upset.

• Bryce Miller said in a post game interview that he finds the whole situation to be “not very comfortable.” Miller went on to say that he’s grateful for any chance he gets to pitch, but it seems clear that the team’s solution to too many good pitchers, however logical it might be, is having some dire human consequences.

Around the league…

• Three Houston Astros pitchers, led by Tatsuya Imai, combined to no-hit the Texas Rangers in Arlington last night. Imai started with six innings, allowing four walks before Steven Okert came in and pitched the seventh, allowing a walk. Alimber Santa pitched the last two innings to close out the effort, securing a pretty unethical looking 9IP, 0H, 0R, 5BB, 4K line.
• Part of me wants to say it’s time for Craig Kimbrel to hang it up, but gosh darn it if the man doesn’t keep finding work! Aging or not, something about Kimbrel ending up in the Rays pitching lab terrifies me.
• The Athletics called up left-handed pitching prospect Gage Jump in the middle of the night last night. Jump is the A’s number two overall prospect and will fill Aaron Civale’s roster spot as he is likely to land on the IL after the Mariners roughed him up last night.
• The Chicago White Sox designated outfielder Jarred Kelenic for assignment yesterday, becoming the third team to cut bait with him since his debut. Kelenic is rapidly running out of options in the big leagues, but as a loud and out Jarred Kelenic supporter, I do truly hope he manages to land on his feet with another team, Although, I have a sneaking suspicion there’s only one team left that might try it, and I don’t like the sound of “Jarred Kelenic, Los Angeles Angel,” all that much.
• The Kansas City Royals are shutting down Cole Ragans rehab assignment for a few days. Ragans is working back from a left elbow impingement and had a good outing in Triple-A Omaha over the weekend, but didn’t feel right in the days following.

Spencer Strider’s last outing for the Atlanta Braves was against the Miami Marlins on Thursday (5/21), making that his longest outing since coming off the IL this season. He pitched for 6.1 innings, allowed three runs on four hits and struck out nine batters.

So far, he’s been producing as someone getting back to the swing of things, gaining two wins across his four outings, and boasting a 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He also, however, has a total of 12 batters walked in his return this month so far, so that will be something he’ll need to decrease against the Boston Red Sox, who might be struggling heavily on offense with an average of 3.7 runs per game, but can take advantage of drawing walks to secure their runs on the board.

The Ohio native is looking to continue his strong stint to kick the series off, but he’ll need the offense to follow suit and have a complete turnaround from their last series against the Washington Nationals.

Boston’s Ranger Suarez will be facing the Braves, currently holding a 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP across his (2-2) nine games pitched.

If there’s a pitch that the Braves’ offense needs to look out for, it’s his 90.6 mph sinker. The lefty is dominant with it and takes up 30% of his arsenal. Against left-handed hitters, he touches the pitch almost 50% of the time, and it lands almost securely in the zone. He lowers it to around a 24% usage against righties.

The Braves’ offense will need to put on a show to blank the Sox early on and give Strider a quality game, but if they continue where they left off against the Nationals and Suarez gets the best of them, there might need to be a shakeup in the game plan for the remainder of the series.

Game Info

Game Time: Tuesday, May 26th, 6:45 pm EDT

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Watch: BravesVision/TBS

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Nathaniel Lowe swatted a walk-off homer against the Detroit Tigers and future Hall of Famer Kneley Jansen on the night of April 24th, the final swing in a roller-coaster 9-8 victory. In that game, the Cincinnati Reds had overcome a 5-0 deficit only to give it back with a 3-run Top of the 8th by the Tigers, with Lowe rectifying things with one mighty cut in the Bottom of the 9th.

It was a game that’s something of a microcosm of the Reds season so far. It was a 1-run win. It featured the bullpen forking over the lead. It also featured dingers a-plenty, with Lowe socking two and Matt McLain swatting a pair in one of his precious few good games of the season.

Aside from that, it was something of a nondescript outing in the annals of baseball history. A good win, an entertaining one, but merely one data point in the billions of data points we’ve got in this great game’s vast history.

If you choose that data point to look closer at the offense of the Cincinnati Reds, though, you’ll begin to see something that’s both spectacular and completely unheard of through the lens we viewed their brutal start to the 2026 season as a team.

Counting that game, the Reds have played 28 games since dawn on April 24th, 2026. And since dawn on April 26th, zero teams have hit more homers than the 41 the Reds have launched. Zero! Their .191 ISO in that span ranks 3rd behind the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals (both at .194). Their .435 SLG ranks 2nd behind only the Bronx Bombers (.440), while their .333 wOBA similarly ranks behind only that of the Yankees (.341).

It’s not fluky, either – at least by xwOBA. The Reds sport the 2nd best expected wOBA in the game in that span at .340, ahead of the Yankees (.339) and behind just the Los Angeles Dodgers (.344). That’s right – for over a month of the season, it’s been the Reds sandwiched between the behemoths on both coasts for the honors of being the single best offense in the sport.

It’s a cherry-picked date, obviously. It’s also a date that fully encompasses the evolution of the regulars in the lineup, however. Each of Lowe and JJ Bleday have assumed almost daily use in that time, with Bleday having not even been a part of the offense since being called up for the first time on April 25th. We’ve also seen the gradual phasing out of TJ Friedl and Ke’Bryan Hayes, with the latter eventually landing on the IL over the weekend with lingering back problems. In other words, it’s cherry-picked, but pretty accurately overlaps with the Reds beginning to eschew their strict defense-first lineup decisions in favor of letting their big bats bat early and often.

And, it’s paying off in spades.

Craig Kimbrel wasn't out of work for long, and he even got a nice boost in the standings.

Kimbrel, 37, signed a major league deal with the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday, May 26, The Athletic first reported, just four days after the New York Mets designated him for assignment. Ranked fifth on the all-time saves list, Kimbrel posted a 6.00 ERA in 14 appearances for the Mets and did not earn a save.

But ninth-inning chances might be more plentiful with Tampa Bay, and the Rays are in first place in the American League East, and not the cellar of the National League East. Tampa Bay has mixed and matched with veteran right-hander Bryan Baker recording 14 saves, but lefty Ian Seymour and a half-dozen others have saved games.

The Rays could use the immediate help - they played 13 innings on Monday in losing 7-5 to the Baltimore Orioles.

Kimbrel's 440 career saves are second among active players, trailing Detroit's Kenley Jansen, who has saved 483 games. The Rays will be his 11th major league team, and his eighth in the past six seasons.

It was another story-driven week on the farm. Prominent relievers earned promotions all around, while top prospects started getting going. A few prominent starters struggled, while others shone. And even better, for the first time all year, nobody had a losing week!

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Record: 26-23, 3.5 GB in the International League East after a 3-3 week against the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs (Phillies)

Run differential: +24

Coming up: Home vs. Worcester Red Sox (Red Sox)

It was a topsy-turvy week for the RailRiders, who played just about every type of ballgame this week. They blew ‘em out on Tuesday, got blown out on Wednesday, and then split four consecutive one-run games to end the week. It’s the splittiest six-game split that you’ll ever see.

In Scranton, we’ve seen a lot of pop this past week, as guys like Yanquiel Fernandez, Seth Brown, and Ernesto Martinez Jr. traded big swings all week long. Marco Luciano was placed on the injured list midweek, but was replaced by Double-A call-up Tyler Hardman, who’s finally moving up after four years in Somerset. It was a better week for George Lombard Jr. (8-for-27, 7 RBI, 3 XBH), who picked up some big hits along the way as his peripherals continue to look excellent, but he’s still running into bad luck.

Brendan Beck made a pair of starts and allowed five runs in 10.1 innings in an unpleasant week for the rotation. Veterans Adam Kloffenstein and Dom Hamel struggled considerably, but they weren’t alone in bad weeks. Carlos Lagrange continued an up-and-down season by allowing five runs in five innings, while Elmer Rodríguez had a fascinating stat line: 3 IP, 2 H, 5 R (4 ER), 6 BB, 8 K. Not a lot of balls in play, huh.

Yovanny Cruz rode the Scranton Shuffle this week, but the big headline was the return of Eric Reyzelman to the level after a nightmare 2025 season prompted a reset in Somerset. He tossed two shutout innings on Friday, sitting 96 on the fastball while maxing out at 98.1.

Players of Note:

Oswaldo Cabrera: .212/.300/.333, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 11 XBH, 4 SB, 66 wRC+
George Lombard Jr.: .198/.358/.233, 9 RBI, 4 SB, 74 wRC+ (109 PA)
Brendan Beck: 3-2, 4.42 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 18.5 K-BB% (53 IP)
Carlos Lagrange: 0-2, 4.78 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, 16.8 K-BB% (43.1 IP)
Elmer Rodríguez: 1-3, 2.48 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 16.5 K-BB% (29 IP)

Double-A Somerset Patriots

Record: 23-22, 1.5 GB in the Eastern League Northeast after a 4-2 week against the Chesapeake BaySox (Orioles)

Run differential: +49

Coming up: Home vs. Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Phillies)

Talk about a comeback. Chesapeake won the first two games of the series by scoring 18 combined runs, but Somerset rallied back to win four straight behind some excellent pitching. They allowed just five total runs in the final 36 innings.

While Hardman’s promotion continued to eat away at a hitting core that’s been among the best in all of Minor League Baseball to start the season, the holdovers continued to rake. Jace Avina has fully shaken off an early slump with an OPS over 1.000 in May, Garrett Martin leads the Eastern League in home runs, and DJ Gladney has re-emerged as a quality contact bat. The depth has really suffered from Lombard, Hardman, and Luciano’s promotions, but they’re still one of the best in the league.

After a rough start to the week, the rotation rounded into shape. Xavier Rivas continued a strong strikeout season (43 in 27.1 IP) with seven in 3.1 innings, Kyle Carr struck out eight in 5.1 shutout innings, and Chase Chaney tossed six scoreless innings. The struggles came with Jack Cebert (3.2 IP, 2 R, 6 K), Cade Smith (1+ IP, 4 R), and Trent Sellers (4 IP, 3 R).

Reyzelman’s promotion led to Chris Veach getting his turn in Double-A after a terrific start to the season. The only rough spot of the week for the bullpen came with Ben Grable’s blown save on Tuesday, but he rebounded with 1.2 scoreless innings on Friday. Will Brian and Chris Kean got back on the saddle after rough weeks last week as well.

Players of Note:

Jace Avina: .259/.340/.548, 12 HR, 32 RBI, 24 XBH, 133 wRC+
Garrett Martin: .266/.326/.572, 15 HR, 39 RBI, 8 SB, 133 wRC+
Coby Morales: .264/.341/.485, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 11 SB, 119 wRC+
Hayden Merda: 0-0, 2.29 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 32.9 K-BB% (19.2 IP)
Jack Cebert (HV/Somerset): 4-1, 2.61 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, 21.9 K-BB% (38 IP)

High-A Hudson Valley Renegades

Record: 21-23, 8 GB in the South Atlantic League North after a 3-3 week against the Brooklyn Cyclones (Mets)

Run differential: +11

Coming up: Home vs. Bowling Green Hot Rods (Rays)

Hudson Valley’s inconsistent offense continues to struggle, being shut out twice. They put up seven runs in all three of their wins, including both in the Thursday doubleheader, but had nothing for the three losses.

Eric Genther finally got his power stroke going, blasting a big grand slam in a big bounce-back week. Outside of him and Josue Gonzalez continuing to be a revelation offensively, there’s not a whole lot of standouts, with Kaeden Kent’s strong start slowly tapering off. The son of a Hall of Famer is still hitting almost .300 with strong plate discipline metrics, but he seems to still need a bit more time at the level.

Bryce Cunningham got back on track on Tuesday to start the week, allowing one run in 4.2 innings as he continued to build up. Luis Serna pitched into the sixth but allowed five runs, and both Franyer Herrera and Sean Paul Liñan had uneven starts, but the two stars this week were Rory Fox and Allen Facundo.

Fox tossed the best start of his brief pro career, bouncing back after a rough first few starts by tossing a seven-inning complete game shutout with eight strikeouts. Facundo, on the other hand, tossed five innings and allowed three runs, but made up for it with a staggering 13 strikeouts, marking a new career high.

Veach’s terrific start to the season got rewarded with a promotion, so he left behind the likes of Tony Rossi and Jack Sokol, who continue to pitch well. Returning from rehab to bolster said pen is Bryce Warrecker, who was terrific at this level last season and tossed nine shutout innings in his rehab assignment in Tampa before being activated early last week.

Players of Note:

Kaeden Kent: .298/.368/.421, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 13 XBH, 13 SB, 111 wRC+
Core Jackson: .248/.354/.376, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 11 SB, 98 wRC+
Luis Serna: 2-1, 2.79 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 21.7 K-BB% (38.2 IP)
Bryce Cunningham: 13.1 IP, 7 H, 8 ER, 10 BB, 19 K
Sean Paul Liñan: 1-5, 4.18 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 25.7 K-BB% (32.1 IP)

Single-A Tampa Tarpons

Record: 22-23, 4 GB in the Florida State League West after a 3-3 week against the Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)

Run differential: -20

Coming up: Away @ Daytona Beach Tortugas (Reds)

After a Tuesday postponement and getting swept on Wednesday in a doubleheader, the Tarpons picked themselves up to win three of the last four games of the series in an overall solid week.

Jackson Lovich (7-for-20, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 2 BB) continued to be one of the hottest hitters on the planet, spearheading an offense that continues to improve with a three-homer game on Tuesday. Hans Montero has also been fantastic at the plate, blasting three bombs of his own. The 22-year-old should get a call-up sooner rather than later. Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek’s strong month, coupled with the juice that some FCL call-ups have given them in the last few weeks, has made this a sneakily exciting offense with the potential for more in the coming month or two.

It wasn’t a pleasant start to the week for the rotation, as the rehabbing Chase Hampton (3 IP, 3 R) scuffled, Justin West allowed four runs in a gritty six innings, and Mac Heuer continued to falter with his command, but things rebounded later in the week with a terrific start by Henry Lalane (more on him later) and Tyler Boudreau (5.1 IP, 0 R, 5 K).

The bullpen has seen better weeks. Saturday was an absolute catastrophe, as they wasted Lalane’s brilliant start with a six-run blowup in the ninth off the team’s best reliever, Pedro Rodriguez. The strongest weeks came from the likes of Brennan Stuprich, Greyson Carter, and Jose M. Rodriguez.

Players of Note:

Jackson Lovich: .302/.384/.633, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 22 XBH, 11 SB, 164 wRC+
Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek: .262/.373/.383, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 15 SB, 113 wRC+
Hans Montero: .278/.399/.549, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 19 XBH, 12 SB, 151 wRC+
Tyler Boudreau: 0-1, 2.94 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 22.2 K-BB% (33.2 IP)
Henry Lalane: 0-1, 4.97 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.54 WHIP, 13.0 K-BB% (25.1 IP)

FCL Yankees

Record: 9-8, 5 GB in the FCL North after a 3-2 week.

Run differential: +21

The story of the rookie ball Yanks has been their offense. Wilberson De Pena has been absolutely unreal to start this season, which makes Oswald Peraza’s hot start to 2026 a bit easier to stomach with the Yankees’ infield woes. He had seven RBI on Saturday and should be in Single-A in the next several weeks. One thing to watch with the offense is that Jose Castro, who started on fire through five games, hasn’t played in 10 days.

On the pitching side, Omar Gonzalez continued to be exceptional as he pushes for a full-season promotion, while Sabier Marte continues to struggle. We didn’t see any of Thatcher Hurd this week, but considering he’s getting promoted to Tampa today, that’s not a cause for concern.

Their path to the postseason would go through the FCL Blue Jays, whom they blew a lead to on Sunday afternoon. It would also help if they could take care of business against the other two struggling teams in the division more often.

Players of Note:

Wilberson De Pena: .379/.438/.727, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 12 XBH, 9 SB, 187 wRC+ (73 PA)
Jose Castro: .345/.568/.621, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 10 SB, 199 wRC+ (44 PA)
Richard Matic: .333/.481/.460, 6 XBH, 8 RBI, 7 SB, 132 wRC+ (81 PA)
Thatcher Hurd: 11.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 12 K
Omar Gonzalez: 16 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 21 K

Prospect of the Week: Henry Lalane

Weekly Stats: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K, 15 whiffs
Season Stats: 0-1, 4.97 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.54 WHIP, 13.0 K-BB% (25.1 IP)

It has not been a fun season, let alone three for Lalane, whose prospect stock has been steadily declining since his terrific two seasons in the Dominican Summer League. Injuries have limited him to just 53.1 combined innings from 2023-25, where he’s struggled to generate whiffs and put the ball in the strike zone, aside from a 21-inning sample back in 2023.

To start 2026, he allowed four runs in seven innings across two starts before briefly going on the injured list. Upon returning on April 26th, he’s had his moments, but he’s allowed some hard contact along the way, culminating in allowing nine hits in 4.2 innings last week against Dunedin.

This week, he did something he hasn’t done since July 2022 down in the D.R., and that’s pitching into the sixth inning. He managed his pitch count, racked up a career-high eight strikeouts, and shut down the Clearwater offense for 5.1 innings. His bullpen ultimately ruined his outing, but it was extremely encouraging.

What might’ve been more encouraging was the pitch data. He had an even four-pitch mix between his fastball, changeup, slider, and sinker. 14 of his 15 whiffs came on 34 combined pitches between his changeup and slider, as he kept opposing hitters off balance with his four-seamer, which had more life on it than we’ve seen in years. He sat 94 on it and finished off the fifth by touching 97 on the radar gun, showing the tantalizing velocity he displayed earlier in his pro career.

After a 2-4 homestand against the Ohio teams, the Don Mattingly honeymoon officially ended as the Phillies traveled out west for their next six games against two of the better teams in the National League. The Padres, like the Phillies, possess an anemic offense that has been carried by plenty of front line pitching.

The Padres did not send one of their two front line starters on the mound Monday night, instead having Griffin Canning, who is trying to rebound his value after an ACL tear ended his 2025 season with the Mets. After a Trea Turner strikeout, Kyle Schwarber set the tone by somehow pulling a well located down and away changeup for a solo home run to right field.

Jesús Luzardo entered last night’s contest with a 2.73 ERA over his previous six starts. The BABIP luck and issues with runners on base regressed to the mean with not much else changing around it.

None of that seemed to matter in the first inning. Fernando Tatis jr hit a soft dribbler to no man’s land for an infield hit, Miguel Andujar poked a single into center field, and then Turner botched a Xander Bogaerts groundball. The bases were loaded with no one out and the middle of the Padres lineup at the plate.

Manny Machado could not keep up with a full-count comeback sinker and Jackson Merrill went down on three straight sweepers. It all set up the perfect opportunity for revenge with Nick Castellanos stepping into the box with the bases loaded and no one out.

Luzardo got ahead 0-2 quickly with a backdoor sweeper for a called strike and a swinging one on a down and away changeup. They tried to get Castellanos to chase on three straight pitches outside the zone but he laid them off. With a full count, Luzardo perfectly painted an inside fastball and Castellanos grounded out to shortstop.

The Padres once again got the first two runners on in the third with a Tatis single and an Andujar walk. Bogaerts hit a soft grounder to Bohm who got a forceout at second base. Machado stepped up again but rolled a first pitch fastball over to shortstop for an inning ending double play.

In the fifth, Luzardo once again had to work out of trouble. Rodolfo Durán got hit in the foot with a backfoot sweeper and then Tatis worked a walk. Just like the other innings, the Padres could not muster more to generate a run. Andujar hit a popup and Bogaerts hit a flyball to left field.

The Phillies did not record their second hit off Griffin Canning until the seventh inning when Kyle Schwarber singled to right field to reach base for a third time. Rookie manager Craig Stammen decided to leave Canning in to face Bryce Harper, who worked a five pitch walk.

Stammen kept him in for Bohm and it paid off with a groundball double play that sent Schwarber to third but with two outs.

And again, Stammen elected to leave Canning in for Brandon Marsh and the worst possible outcome occurred, a two-run home run to give the Phillies a three run lead in the late innings.

The Phillies stacked the final three innings with three of their handpicked reliable right handers to close the game out. Orion Kerkering got the seventh against the bottom of the Padres order and struck out a pair with a dotted fastball on the outside corner to Ty France and a nasty down and away sweeper to Ramón Laureano.

In the eighth, Brad Keller walked Tatis to leadoff the inning but got the next three outs including a Machado strikeout to end it.

Jhoan Duran entered the ninth with no lightshow or handpicked music because they’re on the road but had a special milestone on the line. He picked up his 100th big league save with Laureano swung through a full-count splinker.

The Phillies are back to the .500 mark with Aaron Nola getting the ball later tonight against Padres breakout starter Randy Vásquez. It’s probably as good a matchup for Nola as he will have this season.

(Yes, well aware how late this recap is. I’m very sorry, Ethan.)

There are many more than 10 trade candidates in Major League Baseball. If you think about, every player is a trade candidate; I mean, you can technically trade any player if they waive their no trade clause, and until American sports institutes the “ironclad no trade clause” which prevents both the team and player from consenting to a trade (sidebar: imagine how much content we’d all get out of that), everyone can be a “trade candidate.” 

Instead, we’re picking the 10 most interesting trade candidates, people who would not simply be a boring, 35-year-old first-baseman with decent power numbers on a losing roster. I’m talking sneaky trades, players with the potential to dazzle, deals the potential to change everyone’s fortunes overnight. That, or to be really, really funny. 

(Note: Trade are ranked in order of how much I’d like to see them happen, corrected for one standard deviation of Boston Red Sox bias, but not ranked by how likely they are to occur. You really can’t know these things this early.)

1. Tarik Skubal

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 6 (wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, that’s just an example, I’m not going to write it out every time)

Do the Detroit Tigers want to trade Skubal? No, they don’t, but they also didn’t want to be 10 games below .500 in late May with Skubal coming off apparently very-successful elbow surgery. Unless the Tigers are really super-duper confident they can re-sign Tarik Skubal (they aren’t), they probably have to trade him. Jon Heyman’s really-super-happy-positive reporting about the surgery leads me to believe the Tigers are working hard to downplay Skubal’s injury to improve his market. I expect he will be traded.

The interesting bit is what they may or may not be able to get back given Skubal’s injury timeline. Any trade would be a physiologically-dubious rental, and how much would you pay for a rental car that just recently failed inspection? That said, Skubal isn’t some Toyota Camry; he’s a Ferrari that makes a good rotation great overnight. Someone will talk themselves into this, and it won’t be a long talk.

2. Sandy Alcantara

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 2

Alcantara was an ace-level pitcher between 2021 and 2023, but has not been remotely that since missing all of 2024 with Tommy John Surgery. It’s worth wondering if the Miami Marlins would rather just hang onto Alcantara as they try to moneyball their way out of having just one winning season since 2011. They almost certainly won’t get ace-level compensation anymore as Alcantara continues to try to figure out his post-surgery career, but they also might want to get something before its gone — he only has one year left of team control after this one, and his trade market will evaporate if they allow his contract to progress another year.

3. Jarren Duran

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 0, I would just say “mhmm, yep”

I’m a Red Sox fan, so the “mhmm, yep” would be a reaction to the fact that Duran is redundant on this team, plain and simple. He’s a nice luxury who can plausibly hit leadoff, but his 9 WAR 2024 is starting to look like more of an aberration than who he always was. Plainly, he hasn’t been able to hit this year, striking out constantly with super-problematic whiff rates. Once Roman Anthony returns from injury, the Red Sox outfield is set with Cedanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu being two of the only offensive bright spots all year. If those are his hitting chops right now, he just doesn’t have a position in Boston.

4. Rafael Devers

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 19, then cackle hysterically for four minutes

This would be flooring if it actually occurred, since Devers has spent most of 2026 looking like the mother of all cursed contracts. He has been slowly course-correcting, but the San Francisco Giants aren’t a big budget team that has routinely been willing to pay the luxury tax. They are on the hook for $171 million for seven years after this — not sure who is trading for that, but given that Willy Adames and Matt Chapman both have full no-trade clauses, Devers is somehow still the easiest to move.

5. Seth Lugo

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 0.5 (would consider saying wow)

Is Seth Lugo an elite starting pitcher? No, not really, but he’s much improved since last year, still throwing 873 different pitches and liable to seduce someone into thinking his 2024 All-Star campaign could be recaptured sometime soon. He can pitch a lot of innings, (ideally) get some ground balls and I think would benefit a good team as a third or fourth starter without too much pressure. He’s 36 with two full years of team control after this one, so the Royals could plausibly make some demands for him. Maybe one demand. One single demand seems fair. 

6. CJ Abrams

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 1 solid wow

Here’s the rundown about CJ Abrams: he’s 25, a great hitter, wicked fast but a horrendous defensive shortstop. He’s also on the Washington Nationals, who are currently .500 but are absolutely not expected to maintain that. A lot of teams would love a hard-hitting shortstop who can fly, but there’s a lot of evidence he probably shouldn’t be a shortstop. Some executives think his defense is better than his metrics, so I suggest that whoever that was trade for him! Put your money where you mouth is.

7. Yordan Alvarez

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 5

This would be serious business. The Houston Astros have had the season from one of the circles of Hell (which one is still up for debate), but Alvarez has been every bit the ball-striking machine they all knew he could be when healthy. He would command a major return, though I don’t know if Houston wants to be in the business of trading 29-year-old MVP candidates with two more years left on their deal and plenty of time to turn things around.

8. Joe Ryan

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 4

Joe Ryan has been awesome again this year, utilizing his witch’s brew of pitches to smack hitters around like he’s Doctor Octopus in a slap fight. They apparently came close to trading him last year, and with the Twins fire-sale not quite done burning down the roster, I wouldn’t be shocked at all (though it would matter a lot) if Ryan and #10 on this list make their way out of Minnesota.

9. Robbie Ray

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 0, not sure 2026 Robbie Ray is a wow guy

I said this list was going to be “interesting trade candidates” which makes me wonder how exactly Robbie Ray got himself on the docket. He actually was an All-Star in 2025 but was much worse after the All-Star break, I’m not going to sit here and tell you I think Robbie Ray will swing the fortunes of some budding contender. But he is a professional starter who showed last year he could pitch big innings again; he’s a half-season rental that probably won’t cost much at all, I’d be shocked if the Giants don’t move him.

10. Byron Buxton

How many times would I say “wow” if this happened: 2, 4 if he’s healthy

We are big fans of Byron Buxton around here … when healthy. He’s a center fielder who hits for serious power and runs seriously fast. Two years left on his deal, only 32 with late-career DH potential, every team wants that. But this is also his 12th MLB season, and he has played over 100 games in only three of them. That will be factored into whatever package the Twins try to get back for him.

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Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jesus Sanchez is on fire at the plate, and I expect him to continue his hitting streak with Sandy Alcantara on the mound for the Miami Marlins.  

Read on to see why with my Jays vs. Marlins predictions and MLB picks on Tuesday, May 26.

Marlins vs Blue Jays predictions

Marlins vs Blue Jays best bet: Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits (-170)

Jesus Sanchez has been the hottest hitter in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup, and the books seem to be slowly catching on, but there’s still some juice left to be squeezed at a -170 price.

The Jays outfielder has eclipsed today’s 0.5 hits total in 12 of his last 15 contests, posting a .400 batting average and a 1.032 OPS in that stretch. 

As for Sandy Alcantara, he’s been victimized more by left-handed batters, who are hitting .276 against him. 

He has also struggled mightily in May, posting a 6.04 ERA this month, with an opponent batting average of .315 while allowing an average of 7.25 hits per outing. 

COVERS INTEL: Sandy Alcantara ranks in the 92nd percentile with a .290 xBA.

Marlins vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out of the lineup tonight, I’m banking on Daulton Varsho to step up. The Jays' lefty owns a 59% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer and a .375 average vs. the sinker, two pitches that Alcantara throws often against left-handed hitters.

Ernie Clement is on an eight-game hitting streak, averaging 2.65 bases per game. With a struggling Alcantara on the mound, who pitches to contact, I’ll bet on Clement to keep swinging a hot bat and go Over 1.5 total bases.

Marlins vs Blue Jays SGP

• Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
• Daulton Varsho 1.5 total bases
• Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases

Marlins vs Blue Jays home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+475)

Alcantara has kept the ball in the yard, only allowing two homers over his last six starts, so we’ll make this a half-unit wager. 

The Marlins starter gives up fairly hard contact to lefties like Varsho, who have 15 extra base hits off him for a .787 opponent OPS. 

Marlins vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Miami +125 | Toronto -150
• Run line: Miami +1.5 (-170) | Toronto -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (-115)

Marlins vs Blue Jays trend

The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 10 of their last 12 games for +9.4 units and a 59% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Marlins vs Blue Jays and game info

Marlins vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Marlins vs Blue Jays weather

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Alright, so here we are, folks. It’s the day after Memorial Day which is usually the moment in the season where I’d say that it’s safe to start taking whatever’s happening in the standings a bit more seriously. We’re over a quarter of the way deep into this campaign and basically the news is nothing but positive for the Braves as they enter into the Summer portion of the baseball season.

Heading into today’s action, the Braves are 36-18, they have the best record in the National League, they’re tied on percentage for the best record in all of baseball and they’re 8.5 games clear at the top of the NL East, with only the Washington Nationals joining them in the “Over .500” Club at this point in the season.

Whoa. I bet y’all didn’t see any of this coming, now did you? I’ll happily admit that I figured that this team wasn’t going to put on a performance that would have them looking like something closer to what we saw this team do for the second half of 2021 and throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons as well. “They don’t have enough starting pitching,” I cried. Well, Bryce Elder is looking like a more-improved version of his 2023 version and Martín Pérez has developed into a solid fifth starter while Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Grant Holmes have all performed as expected The starting rotation is putting up great numbers as a collective (3.02 ERA, 75 ERA-, 4.01 FIP, 102 FIP-) but the bullpen has been just as good as well (3.07 ERA, 76 ERA-, 3.52 FIP, 90 FIP-), combining to make Atlanta’s pitching staff the current ERA and ERA- leaders (3.04 and 91) while also making sure that their FIP is in a position where this doesn’t seem too unsustainable going forward. That’ll do it!

It also helps that the offense has returned to something that looks a whole lot similar to what it looked like back when this team was really clicking. Braves President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Alex Anthopoulos said on multiple occasions during the offseason that he figured that if the Braves were going to bounce back, it would be because of the offense rather than the pitching. It’s almost as if one of the best front office executives in baseball was onto something, huh? Heading into tonight’s game, the Braves are sitting on the third-best team wRC+ in all of baseball (113, only behind the Yankees and the Dodgers), they’re tied for first in batting average (.260) with the Rays, they have a top-10 On-Base Percentage as a team, they lead baseball in slugging (.431) and they only trail the Dodgers in OPS (.755) and wOBA (.334).

Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley have both performed below their respectively lofty expectations and normally that’d be a recipe for disaster. Instead, they’ve just been serving as complimentary pieces to guys like Drake Baldwin (who was absolutely murdering the baseball before going down with an oblique strain), Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II. It also helps that some of the players outside of the core have been coming up big as well. Mauricio Dubón has been an invaluable piece for this team so far, Jorge Mateo and Dominic Smith have been reliable when called upon and we’re starting to get some good stuff from Mike Yastrzemski as well. If Ha-Seong Kim can get going and the Braves can finally play a game with a full-strength lineup at some point, the ceiling for this team figures to be about as tall as Victor Wembanyama.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that if you’re hitting well and pitching well, you’re going to win a whole bunch of ballgames. Fortunately for the Braves (and outside of their most recent woeful series at home against the Nationals), the bad luck that seemingly tripped them up at all times is starting to turn around for Atlanta. As such, the team has played its way into a very comfortable position as far as their outlook for the rest of the season goes.

FanGraphs currently has the Braves winning 94 games and winning the NL East (86 percent chance by their current calculations) by eight games over the Phillies. PECOTA has a similarly rosy outlook for the Braves at the moment (94 wins, 84 percent chance of winning the division) and both Atlanta’s Expected W/L record and Pythagorean Record (both 38-16) suggest that this is no fluke on Atlanta’s part. Pretty much all of the statistics and metrics indicate that the Braves are right where they need to be right now and it’s something that they’re definitely capable of keeping up or even improving upon going forward.

While it’s been a tiny bit concerning to see them benefit greatly from the New Manager Bounce of going from Rob Thomson to Don Mattingly, Philadelphia would have to keep up an astonishingly furious pace all season while the Braves would have to suffer a significant slow down in order to make this even a nervous race for the Braves going forward. I’m not going full Sal Licata and saying that “The NL East is over” because there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played between now and September but it’s totally fair to say that everybody else in this division is going to be spending a lot of time looking up at the Braves while this season is still going on.

So am I saying all of this to say that the Braves are going to be on easy street from now until October? I’d love to say that but I think we all know that baseball is about as unpredictable as a washer when you throw a brick inside of it (for some reason or another) so there’s always a possibility that a nasty surprise here or there could pop up and throw a wrench in things for Atlanta. Despite the good times that the Braves have had so far, they’ve still had some injuries to key players. I mentioned that Drake Baldwin is currently on the IL and it doesn’t help that his fellow catcher Sean Murphy is also on the IL so Atlanta has already had to go deep into their depth chart for catching help at the moment. Ronald Acuña Jr. has had an IL stint recently and we all know how things go for pitchers nowadays where you kind of just have to pray for health and hope for the best.

Still, it’s hard to see how this train gets derailed for the Braves going forward. Sure, they had a woeful series against a Nationals pitching staff that has been one of the absolute worst in all of baseball so far this season but again, that’s just baseball for you! Not everything is going to go as planned and there’s bound to be some slip-ups and drop-offs here and there. With all of that being said, it really does seem like the Braves are back to playing at the level that we’re used to seeing from them.

It’s also fun to think about where the Braves were at this time last year. At the end of the day on May 25, 2025, the Braves were 25-27 and 8.5 games back in the division. After Memorial Day in 2024, they were 30-21 but six games back. They were only up four games in the division after Memorial Day in 2023 but they were actually 9.5 back in 2022! It’s been a good long while since the Braves were in such a comfortable position after crossing the Memorial Day signpost and while the past has shown that the story of this season is far from being complete, it’s clear that the Braves have played themselves into a very good spot to be in now that it’s starting to get really hot outside. Hopefully we’ll see the Braves continue to keep rolling so we’ll have a very fun Summer around here. We’ll see what happens!

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We're double-dipping on a West Coast matchup today, highlighting our favorite MLB picks for today's slate.

Read on to see why our baseball experts like both a side and a total in the Mariners/Athletics matchup — along with several other top picks for Tuesday.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: SEA/ATH o9.5	+100
Neil Parker: ATH ML	-104
Joe Osborne: MIN ML	-108
Jon Metler: ARI ML	+100

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mariners/Athletics Over 9.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

Bettors saw five home runs yesterday at Sutter Health Park, and that kind of output could show up again today with Ballpark Pal grading it as the best park on the slate for both home runs and run scoring. Luis Severino has struggled to navigate the park this season, carrying a 5.55 ERA and 2.2 HR/9 at home, compared to just 0.5 HR/9 on the road. Seattle Mariners starter Emerson Hancock also brings some red flags, ranking in the Bottom-20 among qualified starters in HR/FB rate, plus his xERA suggests his current 3.07 ERA could be headed in the wrong direction — after posting an ERA near 5.00 last season. THE BAT, still the best projection model in the industry, has this as the highest-scoring game on the slate with 11.23 projected runs and a fair price of -188 on Over 9.5, making it one of the best +EV sides on the board today.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBCSCA, SEAM

Neil Parker's expert pick: Athletics moneyline

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

The Athletics have beat up on righties, to the tune of a second-ranked OPS and third-ranked wOBA, and Seattle RHP Emerson Hancock has surrendered a healthy 44.2% hard-hit rate, while also sporting an unsustainable 83.3% strand rate. Hancock has also been more vulnerable away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, allowing a .355 wOBA with a 5.12 ERA across 96 2/3 career innings on the road. Additionally, Luis Severino has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his past six starts, while spinning a solid 2.92 ERA and 3.09 xERA.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBCSCA, SEAM

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Twins moneyline

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan has been dominant in May, posting a 1.47 ERA while allowing just 10 hits over 18 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, Sean Burke has hit a wall for Chicago, with a 5.59 ERA this month, and the White Sox have dropped six of his last eight starts. Minnesota also owns a massive bullpen edge, ranking 2nd in ERA over the past two weeks — compared to Chicago sitting at 27th. The offenses are closer, but the Twins are still the hotter lineup entering this game.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: CHSN, MNNT

Jon Metler's expert pick: Diamondbacks moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

There’s no reason the Arizona Diamondbacks should be trading near 50 cents against the San Francisco Giants in this matchup. I make Arizona closer to 56-cent favorites, which gives us solid value at the current price.

This is also a difficult offensive setup for San Francisco. The Giants already struggle to generate consistent offense, and facing left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez only complicates things further. The lefty-lefty matchup neutralizes a lot of the impact from key bats like Rafael Devers and Luis Arraez.

Meanwhile, Arizona’s lineup is in a great spot. Ketel Marte is swinging a hot bat, while Corbin Carroll is one of the best gap hitters in baseball and an ideal fit for the spacious alleys at Oracle Park.

• Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Dbacks.TV,NBCS Bay Area

More MLB best bets for today

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I'm hoping this hot weather breaks this cold snap I'm on.

I'm still targeting hot hitters this week for home runs and MLB player props, and even going back-to-back in some spots at better prices in better spots.

Baltimore is a strong place to look for home runs, and Yandy Diaz's prices may not stay north of +650 for long if he keeps slugging at this level. I'm also backing two bats, led by Julio Rodriguez, at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.

These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, May 26.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Yandy Diaz	+670
Randy Arozarena	+600
Julio Rodriguez	+448
💲Today's HR parlay	+20900

Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+670)

I'm not getting next-day theoried today with Yandy Díaz, who I'm getting at a better number than yesterday and is still grading as +EV, per the projections at Covers.

Over the last two weeks, he has been one of the best bats in baseball, ranking seventh in slugging and third in BlastContact%. He’s ripping extra-base hits right now with six over his last five games and gets a great matchup in a favorable park today.

Oriole Park grades as the No. 4 home run environment on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and Shane Baz is a strong target for dingers.

The Baltimore right-hander just saw this Tampa lineup in his last start, so the familiarity edge shifts to the hitters in today’s matchup. He has allowed a home run in seven of his last starts and ranks in the bottom 50 among starters in BlastContact% and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days.

This is a buy to +600.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Rays.TV

Home run pick: Randy Arozarena (+600)

Sutter Health Park is once again grading as the best home run environment on the slate today, per Ballpark Pal.

The wind is blowing out, and the pitching matchup is better than it may look at first glance, as Luis Severino has been hit hard there and the splits back it up. The Athletics starter owns a 2.2 HR/9 in Sacramento compared to just 0.94 HR/9 on the road.

Six of his eight home runs allowed have come in that minor-league park.

Seattle clubbed four home runs yesterday and could leave the yard multiple times again vs. Severino and the bullpen, as no team in baseball has allowed a higher HR/9 at home than the Athletics.

Randy Arozarena at +600 is my target with a fair price of +530, per the projections at Covers. The right-handed hitter ranks 10th in slugging and 15th in BlastContact% over the last 14 days and is one of just six hitters inside the Top 15 in both categories during that stretch.

He went deep yesterday and added a double, and now owns a .299/.390/.477 slash line on the season.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV

Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+448)

I'm running it back with Julio Rodriguez in what projects as the best home run-hitting environment on the board today. This is a spot that graded out as +EV at +360 in a similar setup yesterday.

This is easily the best HR park on the slate today, and Luis Severino has struggled, like most starters, in this minor-league park. His HR/FB rate ranks in the Bottom 25 among MLB starters, and that number is even worse at home.

J-Rod didn’t go deep yesterday, but he entered that game slugging .667 over his last seven days with two home runs. Luke Raley at +350 was a consideration as a left-handed alternative, but J-Rod at this price is the stronger look.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Yandy Diaz	Bet Now +20900
Randy Arozarena
Julio Rodriguez

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Dodgers on Monday beat the Colorado Rockies, completing exactly one third of their season, now 54 games into the 162-game schedule.

As we’ve done for the better part of two decades, we like to take a look at each season in 54-game chunks, seeing how players seasons are put together. For now, we just have the first third of the season to go on, so we’re not necessarily comparing players to themselves. But on a team level, the Dodgers are on pace for 102 wins, and have won at least 32 of their first 54 games for eight years in a row.

The Dodgers allowed only 171 runs so far this season, fewest in MLB at 3.17 per game. It’s the fewest runs allowed by the Dodgers through 54 games since 1989. The plus-108 run differential is the Dodgers’ third-best through 54 games since 2013, the start of their streak of postseason appearances.

Now let’s look at the individual players.

Will Smith’s numbers are down across the board. Dalton Rushing got off to a scorching hot start, with seven home runs in his first 28 plate appearances. Rushing also started three games at designated hitter and two at first base. Those games are counted in his numbers above, as is Smith’s lone start at DH.

The Dodgers offense feels underwhelming, but in reality they lead the majors in wRC+ (119) and on-base percentage (.344), rank third in runs scored (5.17 per game), and are top five in the majors in home runs, slugging percentage, walk rate, and lowest strikeout rate. That’s a testament to the depth, even with injuries and few individual starts standing out.

Andy Pages is the breakout star thus far, providing excellent defense in center field with a 136 wRC+ and leading the majors in RBI. Max Muncy is having one of his best seasons. Kyle Tucker has been above average but not spectacularly so.

Tommy Edman hasn’t yet played this season. Mookie Betts missed 32 games with an oblique injury, and has been quite bad when he’s played so far. Alex Freeland and Hyeseong Kim filled in, combining for 67 starts in the middle infield, and while their defense was quite good, the offense was below average. Same for veteran Miguel Rojas.

Watch out if Kiké Hernández can keep up this blistering pace though.

Shohei Ohtani is at worst the Dodgers’ second-best hitter thus far, and while it feels silly to complain about a 147 wRC+, he’s coming off three years of a collective 177 wRC+ and 153 home runs. So far, Ohtani only has eight home runs a third of the way through this year. His 2026 offensive production is more in line with his 2021-22 with the Angels, his first two seasons fully unleashed as a two-way player when he had a 146 wRC+. Imagine getting that kind of — again, still stellar — offense from someone who’s also on pace for nearly 150 innings of Cy Young Award-caliber pitching.

Ohtani has allowed only six runs in his eight starts, and has not allowed multiple runs in any of his 49 innings to date.

The rotation was incredibly stable for the Dodgers until roughly the last two weeks, after injuries to Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Outside of one bullpen game, the Dodgers used only seven starting pitchers in the first third of the season, with six pitchers accounting for 52 starts. Dodgers pitchers have 30 quality starts, most in the majors.

Justin Wrobleski made one bulk relief appearance of four innings on March 30, but the vast majority of his time was as a starter, and his stat line above reflects his full season to date. Similarly, Will Klein was the first pitcher of a bullpen game on May 15 in Anaheim, but that is included with the relief numbers below.

The depth has again shone through, especially with Edwin Díaz getting surgery after only six innings with the Dodgers. Tanner Scott has looked like the dominant reliever the Dodgers signed two offseasons ago, while Will Klein, Kyle Hurt, and Edgardo Henriquez have worked their way up the trust tree.

Dodgers relievers really picked up the slack of late amid heavier usage, going from the eighth inning on May 12 through May 24 without allowing a run. The bullpen’s streak of 38 (but spiritually 40) consecutive scoreless innings is the longest in modern franchise history.

That’s our look at the first third of the Dodgers 2026 season. We’ll be back in two months to see how the middle portion went.

In baseball, there is only one finite resource. We can argue endlessly about which is more exciting, a perfectly executed bunt single or a smash through the hole, a triple or a home run. But none of that matters for winning games as much as managing that one resource as effectively as humanly possible.

Outs.

In 2005, there were 1620 sacrifice bunts. In 2025, there were only 560. Some of that is because pitchers stopped hitting after 2021, but that just goes to emphasize the point more. If you don’t already have an automatic out at the plate, a sacrifice is a bad baseball play. An extra base is almost never worth an out.

Need more evidence? Check out these run expectancy matrices. Runner at first with no outs? That averaged 0.87 runs in 2025. But a runner at second with one out? 0.67 runs. The numbers are similar the entire way across the matrix. Giving up an out for a base always reduces the number of runs you can expect to score every time. This makes sense if you think about it logically, too. A sacrifice bunt means sacrificing an opportunity to add another runner to the bases or to even drive in the run(s) in that plate appearance. There are an infinite number of bases to be gained in a 9-inning baseball game, but only ever 27 outs.

This goes beyond sacrifice bunts, though. The biggest revelation of the Moneyball Athletics teams was that OBP is more valuable than batting average. How can that be when a hit might be more than a single, but a walk only ever gets you to first base? Because a walk still represents not giving up an out. As long as you still have outs, you’ve still got a chance to win a game. Not giving them away is, therefore, the most important thing. But the Royals, even as they seem to be more analytically inclined than in years past, still don’t seem to get this.

Let me post a quote from an answer given by manager Matt Quatraro during a recent post-game press conference (emphasis mine):

[…] Our offense has to be predicated on some of the aggressiveness on the bases and sometimes you’re going to make those outs.

The Royals have used statistical analysis to determine that bringing in the fences would likely help the team play better. They spent the off-season chasing players with good on-base percentages, which has led to a team OBP of .313 – the highest they’ve had since 2015. But their analytic abilities seem to falter when it comes to the value of an extra base compared to an out despite the fact that run expectancy matrices have existed since before the Royals were even a team.

Earlier in that quote, Quatraro pointed out that the Royals don’t hit bunches of home runs. This misses the point badly. Because every time you make an out on the bases, it represents one fewer plate appearance the team can take in that inning and the entire game. The 2015 Royals had an unofficial slogan of “keep the line moving” because they also didn’t hit home runs, but they didn’t make terrible outs on the basepaths and so were able to keep getting on base and eventually force those runners home. But, hey, fewer plate appearances also means fewer opportunities to hit those home runs. So there’s that, too.

The Royals’ front office and coaching staff are not stupid. These people know baseball well. Most of them more than any of us. But that’s just why it is so painful to see them make judgments so lacking in basic logic. You don’t have to be a baseball genius to know that if you’ve got a highly limited resource like outs, you shouldn’t give them away without a darn good reason.