Category: MLB

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The Detroit Tigers offense has come alive this month, ranking second in runs scored against right-handed pitching.

Taking on a Houston Astros righty who struggles against left-handed bats, my Tigers vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks expect the road team to snap its two-game losing skid on Monday, June 15.

Who will win Tigers vs Astros today: Detroit Tigers (+110)

Kai-Wei Teng is a solid pitcher against right-handed hitters. Not so much against lefties.

He ranks in the 24th percentile in xBA and xwOBA when facing left-handed hitters, which is far from ideal in a matchup against the Detroit Tigers.

They have six left-handed batters in their projected lineup, including Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, and Kerry Carpenter.

They are very well equipped to do damage against Teng, whom the Houston Astros badly need distance from due to a taxed bullpen.

Look for the Tigers offense to get to Teng and set the table for a win.

Play to -105.

COVERS INTEL:The Tigers rank third in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers in June.

Tigers vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 9.0 (+100)

The Tigers are in a great spot to score a handful of runs. They have a lot of good lefties to throw at Teng, and they’ve crushed right-handed pitchers of late.

Only the Rockies, Brewers, and Dodgers have posted a higher wOBA against righties than the Tigers in June. They also lead the majors in fly-ball rate.

The Astros should chip in as well. Troy Melton has pitched much worse than his ERA suggests, with his xFIP sitting two runs higher over the last 30 days.

With both offenses taking on vulnerable pitchers, I’d play the Over to -110.

Tigers vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Tigers +110 | Astros -130
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 (-180) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (+100) | Under 9.0 (-120)

Tigers vs Astros trend

Houston has hit the Game Total Over in 15 of the last 25 games at home (+4.9 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Astros.

How to watch Tigers vs Astros and game info

Tigers vs Astros latest injuries

Tigers vs Astros weather

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The San Diego Padres will be looking to keep their winning ways alive tonight in the series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. 

However, due to Lucas Giolito's struggles, my Padres vs. Cardinals predictions are eyeing the hosts to capitalize on the righty's inability to limit baserunners. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 16.

Who will win Padres vs Cardinals today: Cardinals moneyline (-140)

San Diego Padres starter Lucas Giolito has made just five appearances this season since signing late, and the underlying metrics are concerning. The veteran sports a 6.40 xERA overall while walking 7.84 hitters per nine innings.

Across his last two appearances, Giolito has lowered his xERA to 4.38, but command remains a major problem as he's still issuing 6.75 free passes per nine innings. That's a dangerous profile against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that owns an impressive 132 wRC+ over the last 14 days and a .369 wOBA across its previous six contests.

Dustin May also enters tonight's start in good form. The right-hander has settled down lately, compiling a stellar 1.94 FIP over his last four appearances while limiting opponents to a 34.5% hard-hit rate during that span.

St. Louis will create opportunities against Giolito, while May is well-positioned to continue his recent success.

I'll play this pick up to -150.

COVERS INTEL: May is striking out 11.63 hitters per nine innings over the last month compared to 8.17 K/9 overall this season. 

Padres vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 runs (-110)

The Cardinals' bullpen hasn't been amazing lately, posting a 5.02 xERA over the last week, but May typically pitches relatively deep into games and has worked into the sixth inning in two of his last three starts. That limits the amount of bullpen exposure against a Padres lineup that is batting just .224 on the road and owns an 89 wRC+ away from home.

On the other side, San Diego's bullpen has been excellent lately, posting a stellar 2.94 FIP across its last 24 2/3 innings while allowing only 0.73 home runs per nine. The Padres' relievers have also generated a 50% ground-ball rate during that stretch, another encouraging sign for the Under.

St. Louis should have their chances to score against Giolito, but the Padres' bullpen success could help prevent the game from turning into a high-scoring affair. With May capable of providing length and both offenses carrying some limitations, this game profiles as a relatively low-scoring affair.

Padres vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Padres +127 | Cardinals -133
• Run line: Padres +1.5 (-163) | Cardinals -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-100) | Under 8.5 (-108)

Padres vs Cardinals trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+4.05 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Padres vs Cardinals and game info

Padres vs Cardinals latest injuries

Padres vs Cardinals weather

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2026 MLB Draft Preview: Cooper Harris scouting report.

The 2026 is about a month away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.

Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at Flower Mound righthanded pitcher Cooper Harris.

Cooper Harris is a local product, a 6’3”, 205 lb. righthanded pitcher out of Flower Mound High School. Harris just turned 18 last week, making him on the younger side for a high school prospect. He is committed to the University of Texas.

Harris has seen his stock rise this spring, most notably with an outing in the Amegy Bank Series that saw him strike out 17 batters in six no hit innings. Both MLB Pipeline and Keith Law have his fastball at 90-94 mph. Law says Harris works his fastball well at the top of the zone, while Pipeline says he can make his fastball rise, sink or cut with good command. His youth and build are such that he’s projected to be able to add velocity going forward.

Harris is a four pitch pitcher, with a curve, slider and changeup to go with the fastball, though, as is the case with most prep pitchers, he rarely throws his changeup. He gets good reviews for his athleticism and ability to repeat his delivery. He is seen as a strike thrower with a starting pitcher profile.

Baseball America has Harris at #85 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Harris at #62 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Harris at #82 on his top 150 list. Keith Law’s rankings have Harris at #53 on his board. Fangraphs does not have Harris on their board. Baseball Prospectus does not have Harris on their top 30 draft board.

The only high school pitcher-only the Rangers have taken in the top three rounds since their scouting and player development overall after the 2018 season is Tekoah Roby, taken in the third round in 2020, though Josh Owens, their 2025 third round pick, is a two-way player. Harris would seem likely to slot in the second or third rounds, or be a well-above-slot pick in the later rounds.

One can make some comparisons between Harris and 2023 6th rounder Caden Scarborough, who received an above-slot bonus as a late riser whose projectability the Rangers were betting on, and who is now a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball. Harris is currently more highly touted — at least in the public rankings — than Scarborough was heading into the draft, and so likely can’t be landed by offering him fourth round money, the way Scarborough was.

How strong Harris’s commitment to the University of Texas is isn’t clear, from what I’ve seen. If his hometown team comes calling with, say, third round money — the Rangers’ third round slot figure is $900,800 — one would like to think that would get him signed.

Previously:

Liam Peterson

Tyler Bell

Aiden Robbins

Jared Grindlinger

Logan Reddemann

Worcester: Canceled, Rain

The finale against the Red Wings (Nationals AAA) ended up as the second game canceled this series due to inclement weather. This was a blessing in disguise for both clubs’ pitching staff as they used a combined thirteen pitchers on Saturday in Brayan Bello’s first AAA start, so an extra day of rest isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Portland: W, 9-3 (BOX SCORE)

With Brannon and Arias both out of the lineup, Sunday afternoon still managed to look like batting practice for the Sea Dogs in the finale against the Fightin Phils (Phillies AA). They got 3 home runs and 7 total runs in the 5th inning and had 18 total knocks on the night. This offensive power included Stanley Tucker, newly promoted from Salem, introducing himself with 2 RBIs; he’d also reach base on a walk. Johanfran Garcia, meanwhile hit his eleventh homer of the season as he continues to rake.

John Holobetz backed the offense up with six strong scoreless innings, striking six out. Holobetz, the “player to be named later” in the Quinn Priester deal, remains an intriguing prospect, if not for his run prevention, for his ability to avoid barrels and keep his pitch count down, helping him go later in games later than his counterparts. The 4.70 ERA is concerning, but he could be worth a look to see if that low fastball also escapes being hit hard against batters with Major League experience in Triple-A. The team as a whole struggles with run prevention, so Holobetz now slides into second in the rotation in ERA (behind Wehunt) as well as in strikeouts (behind Mullins, who definitely is ready for an extended look.)

Greenville: L, 2-12 (BOX SCORE)

Marcus Phillips walked seven in another short and inopportune showing for the Drive against the Dash (White Sox High-A) and the relief staff made things worse by getting taken for twelve runs. The entire staff got hit around, walked ten (including Phillips’ seven) and allowed three home runs. Even if the pitching staff performed well, though, the Drive managed just four hits on the afternoon and took until sixth to put one run on the board, so that’s a tough hole to overcome on any day.

Salem: L, 5-9 (BOX SCORE)

This was a plausable win for the RidgeYaks if they either recorded more than 1 hit after the second inning or if they didn’t allow three consecutive multi-run innings, but both things were working in Fayetteville’s (Astros A) favor Sunday afternoon. Their only batter with multiple hits happened to be their nine-hole hitter. Salem is handed their eighth consecutive loss.

Have a motivational Monday.

Hickory starter Evan Siary went four innings, allowing five runs, striking out one and walking one while allowing a pair of homers. Owen Proksch gave up a run in an inning of work. Michael Trausch walked one and struck out two in 1.1 scoreless innings. Geury Rodriguez struck out both batters he faced.

Angel Arredondo was 2 for 4 with a triple and a walk. Daniel Flames was 2 for 4 with a double. Yolfran Castillo had a hit, two walks and a stolen base.

Hickory box score

Hub City starter D.J. McCarty threw six shutout innings, striking out eight and walking two.

Malcolm Moore was 2 for 5 with a double. Hector Osorio had a hit and a pair of walks. Maxton Martin homered. Paxton Kling had a walk and a hit by pitch before leaving the game for Chandler Pollard after the HBP. Pollard had a hit, a walk and a stolen base. Yeison Morrobel had a hit and a pair of walks.

Hub City box score

Dylan MacLean started for Frisco, throwing 6.1 shutout innings, striking out five and walking one. Joey Danielson struck out both batters he faced. Josh Trentadue allowed three runs in 0.2 IP, striking out two and walking one. Eric Loomis allowed three runs in 0.2 IP, including a walkoff homer.

Ian Moller homered and walked. Rafe Percih had a hit and two walks.

Frisco box score

Round Rock starter Josh Stephan allowed three runs in 5.1 IP, striking out five and walking three. Wilian Bormie struck out three and walked one in 1.1 IP, allowing one run. Gavin Collyer walked two of the three batters he faced. Alexis Diaz retired the one batter he faced. Luis Curvelo retired the two batters he faced, one via strikeout.

Rehabbing Josh Smith was the DH and went 1 for 3 with a double and two walks. Jarred Kelenic had a hit and a walk. Blaine Crim had a hit.

Round Rock box score

Rangers 6, Red Sox 4

• And…the Rangers don’t get swept!
• Yeah!
• (fist pump)
• Nathan Eovaldi once again comes to the rescue, giving the Rangers a Quality Start to break a losing streak.
• Eovaldi gave the Rangers seven innings, and when it came to Red Sox hitters other than Willson Contreras, things went very well for him.
• Contreras hit a pair of solo homers off of Eovaldi, accounting for two of the three runs he gave up in the game.
• The first of the two was a Fenway special, a high pop fly to left field that is a fly out just about everywhere else but that the dimensions of the Green Monster turn into a homer.
• Per Statcast, the only other stadium it would have been a homer in is whatever they are calling the stadium in Houston nowadays.
• I’m just going to go back to calling it Enron Field.
• The other one was legit, though.
• Nonetheless, Eovaldi’s homer tendencies this year are a bit problematic. He has now allowed 17 homers so far this season, the fourth most he’s allowed in any season in his career. Given we are just halfway through June, that’s not what you really want to see.
• His six strikeouts leave him just one behind Bronson Arroyo and Jim Whitney, who are currently tied for 210th on the all time strikeout list. Rick Porcello is right behind Eovaldi.
• After uncharacteristically walking three batters his last time out, Our Man Nate issued just a single walk on Sunday, indicating the restoration of balance in the universe.
• Jakob Junis was supposed to finish out the eighth but ended up getting just two outs and allowing a run in before being pulled for Jacob Latz with two outs in the inning, though it should be noted that another Jake Burger pop fly misadventure on a foul ball contributed to Junis’s problems.
• Latz handled things, though, retiring all four batters he faced, so it was all good.
• The Rangers started things off with a bang, in the form of a Wyatt Langford leadoff homer in the first, this of the legit variety. Kyle Higashioka hit a three run shot in the second to give the Rangers all the runs they would need in the game. The final two runs came on a Brandon Nimmo bases loaded double, with Nimmo hopefully dispelling the bases-loaded curse the offense has been laden with.
• Everyone’s favorite 2020 Rangers draft pick, Justin Foscue, had a 3 for 3 game before Skip Schumaker opted to use offensive catalyst Nicky Lopez as a pinch hitter for him once a righthander came into the game. Foscue is now slashing .268/.321/.451 on the year. That’s pretty good.
• And because the Mariners lost, the Rangers are back within a game of first place in the American League West, despite being a game below .500. The Rangers also remain tied with the A’s for WC3, because the American League as a whole hasn’t been all that.
• Nathan Eovaldi’s sinker maxed out at 96.2 mph, averaging 94.0 mph. Jakob Junis hit 94.6 mph with his fastball. Jacob Latz’s fastball touched 97.4 mph.
• Wyatt Langford’s home run was 106.8 mph. Brandon Nimmo had a 105.6 mph double and a 100.9 mph groundout. Kyle Higashioka had a 104.4 mph single and a 100.2 mph home run. Jake Burger had a 104.3 mph double. Justin Foscue had a 104.3 mph single.
• Back home now, for a six game homestand that features a weird off day on Wednesday because of the World Cup.

Meet the Mets

With little in the way of problems or roadblocks, the Mets continued New York’s good weekend with a win on Sunday and a series victory over those dastardly Braves.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post

Optioned a little over two weeks ago, Tobias Myers is back with the big league Mets and will pitch the first couple innings of today’s game before David Peterson and/or the bullpen take the bulk of the work.

Much like you probably are, Francisco Lindor is thinking about the Knicks and finding inspiration.

Around the National League East

The Marlins nearly sent Paul Skenes’ ERA up to 3.00 as they left Pittsburgh with a 4-2 win and extended Max Meyer’s season-long winning streak to 15 starts.

Miles Mikolas pitched seven shutout innings and eight different Nationals scored runs in their 10-1 battering of the Mariners.

Doing what they can to help Jacob Misiorowski’s Cy Young case between starts, the Brewers scored four runs off Cristopher Sanchez and handed the Phillies a 4-0 loss.

Continuing their chain of having baseball’s best young hitter, the Nationals have had 14 years of Bryce Harper, then Juan Soto, and now James Wood.

Around Major League Baseball

John Schneider is not a fan of Jose Caballero’s pesky, but legal, way of messing around within the confines of the pitch clock.

In the Nationals’ beatdown, Josh Naylor and Andres Munoz both left the game, but the Mariners aren’t overly concerned about the health of either one.

Following his historic performance over the weekend, the Brewers are going to give Jacob Misiorowksi a pre-planned extra day off before his next start.

Two months after giving him a $50M extension, the Brewers are calling up prospect Cooper Pratt to make his major league debut.

The Colorado Rockies, having spent over a decade playing their home games at Coors Field before a humidor was used, set their franchise record for runs in a game with 23 in Las Vegas.

In one of two blows to American League Central stars and their hands, Vinnie Pasquantino was placed on the injured list and underwent surgery for a fractured hamate bone.

As for the second blow, the Guardians placed Jose Ramirez on the injured list with the same ailment and will have to rely on someone, anyone to step up in his place.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1977…well.

Welcome to week 12 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!

1. Milwaukee Brewers (43-26); 3-3 this week; 95.7% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)

The Brewers hold their lead atop the division with a 3-3 week that felt both much better and much worse. They dropped two of three to the Athletics in a Las Vegas slugfest before winning two of three against the Phillies in Milwaukee over the weekend.

Jackson Chourio raked this week, leading the team with 13 hits, including five homers, driving in 10, scoring eight runs, and slashing .448/.452/.966. Jake Bauers added a pair of homers, while six other players had a homer apiece. William Contreras, who had one of those homers, added a pair of doubles as part of a nine-hit week. Andrew Vaughn went 6-for-14 with a homer, two doubles, and five walks to one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowski continues to dominate, as he put together one of the best pitching performances I’ve ever witnessed. In a complete game shutout against the Phillies on Friday night, Miz allowed just one hit and struck out an incredible 15 batters on just 95 pitches. Kyle Harrison, who got roughed up in Las Vegas to begin the week, bounced back to toss six shutout frames against the Phils on Sunday to get the win. Grant Anderson, Coleman Crow, Trevor Megill, and Abner Uribe all had scoreless weeks for the bullpen, totaling nine innings with 10 strikeouts.

The Brewers get the day off on Monday before hosting the Guardians for three games. They’ll then head east to visit the Braves and Reds beginning Friday night in Atlanta.

2. St. Louis Cardinals (38-31); 3-3 this week; 45.8% chance to make postseason

The Cardinals also put together a .500 week, taking two of three in New York against the Mets but dropping two of three to the Twins in Minnesota over the weekend.

Alec Burleson slugged five homers for St. Louis this week, adding a double and driving in eight. Iván Herrera tied with JJ Wetherholt for the team lead with eight hits, and Herrera slugged two homers to go with two steals. Jordan Walker drove in a team-high nine thanks to two homers and two doubles.

Dustin May put together the best start of the week for St. Louis, earning the win as he went six scoreless innings with six strikeouts. Andre Pallante allowed two runs and struck out five over six innings in a winning performance, while Matt Svanson led the bullpen with 4 2/3 perfect innings across three appearances, striking out four.

The Cardinals return home for a quick three-game set with the Padres before heading to Kansas City to take on the Royals over the weekend, with an unconventional off day on Saturday thanks to the World Cup, which will host a game at GEHA Field (formerly Arrowhead Stadium) right across the street from Kauffman Stadium that night.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (36-36); 2-4 this week; 38.3% chance to make postseason

The Pirates had a rough homestand this week, dropping two of three to both the Dodgers and Marlins as they were outscored 42-26 across the six games.

Tyler Callihan, Brandon Lowe, and Bryan Reynolds all had two homers this week, as Reynolds tied with Jake Mangum for the team lead with eight hits. Overall, Reynolds slashed .333/.407/.708 with three doubles and a pair of walks. Spencer Horwitz, Ryan O’Hearn, Nick Gonzales, and Jared Triolo each added five hits on the week.

It was a rough week for the Pittsburgh pitching staff, including ace Paul Skenes, who allowed two runs across six innings in both of his starts, though he still struck out 17 to bring him to 99 for the season. Bubba Chandler allowed two runs and struck out six over 5 2/3 innings, and Braxton Ashcraft allowed two runs and struck out four over five innings. Isaac Mattson, Mason Montgomery, Yohan Ramírez, and Dennis Santana all had scoreless weeks for the bullpen, totaling eight innings with six strikeouts.

Pittsburgh is now headed west, as they’ll visit the A’s (in Sacramento) and Rockies with an off day scheduled for Thursday.

4. Chicago Cubs (37-35); 3-3 this week; 42.9% chance to make postseason

The Cubs were on the West Coast this week, as they dropped two of three against the Rockies before taking two of three in San Francisco against the Giants for a .500 week.

Michael Busch and Ian Happ both homered twice this week, while Pete Crow-Armstrong led the offense with nine hits, including a homer, three doubles, and a triple. Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman both homered, as Bregman put up seven hits and Suzuki added six.

Javier Assad and Shota Imanaga led Chicago’s rotation this week, as Assad went six scoreless innings with five strikeouts and Imanaga went five scoreless with seven strikeouts. Ryan Rolison went 3 2/3 scoreless innings across three appearances (including as an opener), striking out three. Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, and Caleb Thielbar were also scoreless for the bullpen, totaling 9 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts.

Chicago will now host the Rockies for their second series in a week before an off day on Thursday. They’ll then welcome the Blue Jays to town for a three-game set this weekend.

5. Cincinnati Reds (33-37); 2-4 this week; 4.8% chance to make postseason

The Reds continue to struggle, as they dropped two of three against the Padres in San Diego before losing a weekend series at home against the Diamondbacks.

Noelvi Marte slugged three homers and a double, though he had just three RBIs for the week. Eugenio Suárez homered and tied Marte for the team lead with six hits, while JJ Bleday added two homers and two doubles. Sal Stewart and Spencer Steer also homered.

All of Cincinnati’s starting pitchers put together a solid week, as Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, and Rhett Lowder totaled 33 1/3 innings across their six starts (Abbott made two starts), allowing 11 runs (2.97 ERA) and striking out 34. Unfortunately, none of those starts resulted in a win, as they combined to go 0-1, with the lone loss attributed to Abbott. Sam Moll and Tony Santillan were both scoreless for the bullpen.

Cincinnati wraps up the homestand to begin the week with three games against the Mets. After an off day on Thursday, they’ll head to New York to face the Yankees.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been slipping over the last week of the season. The Bucs are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and have slipped back to hovering around .500. This might be the time where the team needs to make some aggressive changes, and I think one of those changes should be in the starting rotation.  

Bubba Chandler has been very inconsistent this season for Pittsburgh. In an appearnce against the Atlanta Braves, he pitched 5 1/3 innings. He only allowed 1 hit and 2 earned runs and seven strikeouts. 

In that game, we saw something we haven’t seen all season and that was Chandler not starting the game. The 23-year-old pitcher came into the game in the second inning, with Mason Montgomery getting the start. 

On Saturday, Chandler started agains the Marlins and went for 5 2/3 innings, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits with 6 strikeouts. He didn’t get the win.

With the recent inconsistencies that Chandler has had, maybe fresh changes like that is exactly what he needs. Chandler is just 2-7 on the season and has a 4.76 ERA. He has also struggled with walks this season with 41, which is the most by any pitcher on the Pirates pitching staff.  

We saw the right-handed pitcher come out of the bullpen last season when he was called up, and he threw well. I think moving Chandler to the bullpen and giving Carmen Mlodzinski his starting rotation role back could be beneficial. 

Mlodzinski has shown a lot of promise this season in his 13 games played. The 27 year old pitcher is 4-3 on the season with a 4.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.40. 

I think Chandler has a lot of potential, but the pitching across the board has been a problem for the Pirates over the last couple of weeks. Making some changes like this could light a fire under Chandler and make him a better pitcher.

I don’t think the young pitcher has lived up to his high expectations yet, but this is just his first full season in the majors. If Chandler can be better utilized in relief than as a starting pitcher, the Pirates ought to consider the adjustment. It has the chance to help both the rotation and the bullpen.

I feel like I’m been pretty negative over the last few weeks of Brushback articles. I need to change up my mentality a lil’ bit.

This 2026 Red Sox season, as we all know by now, has been tragic thus far. Not enough offense, the pitching isn’t enough to carry them to victory on most nights in spite of their best efforts, the front office seems completely aimless, yada yada yada. These are things that you haven’t already read before on OTM, be it from me or from any of my colleagues. Frankly, these are themes you’re likely gonna continue to see as the summer progresses as well. The Craig Breslow question isn’t going away anytime soon—well, unless FSG decides to give him a pink slip in the coming days—and even after a series win against the Texas Rangers at home (wait, we’re allowed to win multiple games at Fenway????), the dreams of seeing the Sox qualify for postseason ball seem to be just that at the moment: dreams.

But we’ve got nothing but precious time to complain about all the shit that’s going wrong for Boston. The organizational soap opera will continue, and I frankly don’t want to sit here and repeat the same talking points/complaints each and every week that I sit down to write about this stupid team. I’m sure you don’t want to read the same article over and over and over again, either. What’s the point of essentially copying and pasting the same Brushback article all the time at this point? We’ll have weeks—maybe even months—to perform an autopsy on this season, how poorly the roster was constructed, all that fun stuff. Our regularly scheduled bellyaching will continue long into the dog days, short of something astonishing happening in Boston over the next few months (I’m not holding my breath, but stranger things have happened; after all, the Knicks just won a championship).

So while I can’t sit here and tell you that my entire outlook on the Red Sox is positive—because it clearly isn’t—I at least wanted to shake up the mojo a little bit and shine a light on a guy who I haven’t given enough credit to here on the website: Ceddanne Rafaela.

It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.

What a year that Boston’s center fielder is having, folks. Through his first 66 games he’s logged a 2.2 fWAR; he’s on pace to smash the career high of 3.8 he set last season. The numbers leading into Saturday’s game don’t lie, as Jake Iggy of BoSox Talk pointed out on The Everything App:

A lil’ bit of traditional stats if you prefer the old school, a lil’ bit of nerdy stats if you don’t like Manny Machado. Either way you slice it: he’s been a productive hitter, as evidenced by the 127 OPS+ he’s notched leading up to Sunday’s finale against Texas.

Now if I told you I was gonna write 1,000-ish words about a guy with a .291/.346/.457 triple slash leading up to that Sunday night matchup at Fenway, you might scratch your head a little. “Sure, that’s a very solid output,” you may think to yourself, “but why are we focusing on him entirely here?”

Well, two things:

1. Again, I’m trying something positive here to distract myself from the rest of the dumpster fire that is this season, and
2. Not all 127 OPS+ outputs are created equally

We all knew that Ceddy had some juice in the bat, but the big question with him had been consistency; he’s got a bit of JBJ in him due to his defensive wizardry and his affinity to switch between hot and cold in a jiffy.

One word jumps out at me when looking under the hood when trying to figure out Rafaela’s progression in 2026: competitiveness.

The major issue I had with Ceddanne’s plate approach in the early stages of his career was that he gave up too many ABs too easily. Chasing after junk, not working counts, making bad swing decisions, etc. Even when you are making contact, an approach like that is going to throw you off-kilter when you’re stuck in between.

Now, even when you’re just watching him, Ceddy looks much more comfortable at the plate compared to where he was when he first started in the bigs. Of course, some of that comes with time, but it’s quite noticeable to me nowadays. If you don’t trust the good ol’ eye test: the simple fact that he’s cut his whiff rate by nearly 10 percentage points since the 2024 season, per Savant, should do a lot of the heavy lifting here. He’s not getting fooled as often and that’s allowed him to deal more damage at the dish.

To take it a step forward and to play with my keyword for Rafaela: as of Sunday morning, he ranked within the top 75 (just barely—he was number 75 exactly) of competitive swings across MLB this season. A fancy dancy Statcast metric, a competitive swing is defined as “the fastest 90% of a player’s swings, plus any 60+ MPH swings resulting in an exit velocity of 90+ MPH.” For reference: Ceddy had 1,080 and 1,104 competitive swings in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Rafaela put the ball in play through 31.6% of those competitive swings in 2024 and 36.3% in 2025.

This season, that rate is 38.3%. It’s a marginal improvement, yes, but it’s one that I think speaks to the improved plate approach. A better approach with improved plate discipline leads to fewer whiffs, which leads to more competitive ABs in general, which leads to more competitive swings, which leads to profit.

None of this even mentions the knack Rafaela has to deliver a clutch knock, by the way, which is a trait that he’s certainly shown during his big league tenure.

Now, granted, Rafaela might be the beneficiary of some BABIP luck thus far in 2026. His xwOBA and xSLG metrics are both below the 30th percentile leaguewide, and his expected batting average is only around .250 as I’m writing this Sunday morning. The signs of continued progression are there, however, so I’m not totally spooked by those analytics. Improvement isn’t always linear, and he’s still a relatively young guy. There’s more room for growth, and that starts with the game-to-game approach that Ceddy’s implementing in the better’s box.

All of this is to say that Ceddanne Rafaela has to be an All-Star. He probably doesn’t start the game over Byron Buxton, sure, but who else has an obvious claim to an outfield position over him this season? The only guy I can think of who would steal a spot over Ceddy is probably Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners due to his power numbers and his star status, but I’ll take the guy who’s OPS is 50 points higher and is a platinum glove type of fielder. Get Ceddanne to the Midsummer Classic, baby.

Is the team bad? Yes. Is this going to be a long summer in Boston? Probably. Is the future unclear? I’m too scared to answer that question in earnest. But do we have Ceddanne Rafaela patrolling center? Yes, yes we certainly do. So we got that going for us, which is nice.

Song of the Week: “Two Of Us” by The Beatles

Hey, these guys are pretty good.

Until next time, friends! Go Sox.

One of the more fun things to do in statistics is what I lovingly call the Player A and B test. It is more of psychological ploy than anything else. Unfortunately, we have feelings that get attached to every player on or off our team. So, comparing two players is next to impossible when their names are attached. That comes with positive and negative bias. For instance, comparing Jose Altuve to any historical second baseman is nearly unfair. We have all kinds of baggage attached that muddies the waters there.

I did not invent the Player A and B test. Standing on the shoulders of giants leaves me cold (bonus to anyone that gets that reference). We simply compare numbers and remove the names. One of the troubles is that some numbers become identifiers by themselves. Like if I say that Player A drove in 191 runs in a season then you automatically know I am referring to Hack Wilson.

In this edition of the test, we are comparing one Astros pitcher to a historical pitcher. We will prorate the numbers to assume a full season for this Astros pitcher. In doing so, hopefully we will muddy the identities just enough to make this a fun exercise. We will include some basic numbers and then another table with some sabermetric numbers. First, let’s start with some basic numbers.

Unfortunately, this is one of those cases where if you know your baseball history then you already know the two pitchers. Of course, I am going to reveal it at the end, so if you don’t know you can live in suspense. I should point out that Pitcher A surrendered more home runs than any pitcher in the league in that season and Player B did too. Otherwise, these pitchers look extremely similar and that is always the fun part of the Player A and B test.

I should also point out that both pitchers are in very similar stages of their respective careers at this point. Player A is 25 while Player B is 26, so both respective teams could collectively believe that these pitchers could grow and turn into something. However, this is usually where the comparisons break down. The era is different. The home ballparks are different. The teams are different. So, there is a ton that gets in the way of suggesting these two were separated from birth.

There are some numbers I like for quick reference at baseball-reference.com. I should point out that these aren’t the only numbers out there and some of the more analytically minded will point out they may not be the best ones. However, they are fairly easy to interpret, so they make a comparison like this easy. ERA+ measures a pitcher’s ERA against the league average with a ballpark adjustment included. 100 is average with everything under that being below average. Most of you are familiar with bases per out which has become a bit of a signature for me. The lower the better on that front.

Weighted adjusted average percentage calculates what a pitcher’s winning percentage would be with an average team. So, this includes average run support, average bullpen support, and average defense behind the pitcher. This immediately spills us into a neutral record. You simply multiply the adjusted percentage by the total number of decisions. Finally, we get the percentage of quality starts for the pitcher.

These are two very similar pitchers in most respects. The BPO is radically different but Player B somehow comes out looking better in the subsequent categories. This is because he had bad batted ball luck. Of course, I am being cagey in order to avoid spilling the beans on who we are talking about, but these numbers likely have left enough bread crumbs for you to figure out at least one of the pitchers.

Neither of these are good pitchers, but the adjusted won-loss records show that neither is as bad as they look initially. They pitched in different eras which could account for the quality start percentage. However, the innings totals are not all that different and even when we include the era and ballpark adjustment, we see that these two pitchers are very comparable.

The Big Reveal

Player A is Mike Maroth from 2003 and Player B is Mike Burrows from this season with his numbers prorated to the end of the season. The situations are obviously vastly different which is why this is such a big deal. Those 2003 Tigers lost 119 games. They were never in the hunt, so they were just happy that someone was there to give them some innings. As soon as the Tigers were ready to be competitive then they were ready to move on from Maroth.

Burrows is in a different situation. For one, he was supposed to be a number two starter, That obviously hasn’t worked out, but the adjusted winning percentage shows he hasn’t been as bad as the numbers would suggest. However, the team has designs on getting back in the race, so they have to weigh the benefits of getting five innings every time out with a pitcher giving up runs at a pace that has them on pace to lose most of his starts.

I’m not supposed to make declarative statements in the lab and I really can’t in this case. On the one hand, every important metric points towards positive regression. On the other hand, it is hard to be patient and wait that out when every loss hurts. This is one of those decisions where I can’t damn them either way they go. What do you think? Would you pull Burrows from the rotation when Hunter Brown returns?

It was a tough week for the Atlanta Braves, as they finished 1-4 for the week as a whole after losing to the Mets 8-1 on Sunday. While the Braves were the best team in baseball on the road entering the week, every team is bound to have these stretches at least a few times a season.

While better days will happen soon, the Braves starting pitching also will remain a concern going forward. Spencer Strider will be meeting this week with the same doctor who did his elbow surgeries in the past, which is certainly not the best news. Bryce Elder is working through regression and the Braves in general are managing the staff to ensure the bullpen does not get overused. It is not an ideal situation, but hopefully reinforcements will be here soon to make things a bit easier.

Braves News

The Braves best MLB hitter and minor league hitter, Drake Baldwin and Eric Hartman, both hit home runs on the farm on Saturday. Baldwin was not in action Sunday as his game was postponed, so it will be interesting to see what they means for his return at some point this week.

MLB News

The White Sox are continuing to surprise, and validating they are no fluke, with series wins over the Braves and Dodgers this week.

The Brewers were able to find success against Christopher Sanchez in a win over the Phillies on Sunday.

Brewers are calling up one of their top prospects in shortstop Cooper Pratt.

The Dodgers are back home for their final homestand of June, so let’s look at some news and notes from over the weekend.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking a perfect game into the eighth inning was the highlight of the road trip, and the right-hander has allowed only four runs in 35 2/3 innings over his last five starts. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register talked with pitching coach Mark Prior and others about Yamamoto:

“He can attack the plate on both sides from ball-to-strike better than anybody I’ve ever seen. He has that ability to do that when he’s on,” Prior said. “That makes it tough on hitters. You don’t know if the ball is coming at them, from the right side or the left side, and going in.

“That’s what makes him special. It’s not just the amount of pitches. It’s the ability to throw them in four different quadrants and have pretty good execution and efficiency with it. That’s what makes him special.”

Andy Pages is thriving on the field this season, but what most folks don’t see is the toll taken by being separated by most of his family. Pages lives in the United States with his wife, but his parents and sister are still in Cuba. Liana Handler at the Los Angeles Times wrote about how strained relations between Cuba and the U.S. prevent both Pages from visiting the rest of his family or bringing them from Cuba to be with him here:

“I haven’t found any way that gives me that tranquility and peace,” he told The Times in Spanish two weeks ago. “Because the way things are there, what’s always on your mind is that it could happen. Anything, anytime. And I have all my family in Cuba. So, you have to live with that worry all the time.”

Mookie Betts had three hits on Saturday in Chicago and homered on Sunday, positive signs in what has been a brutal start to his season offensively, hitting just .204/.267/.374 with a 78 wRC+. Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic looked at some underlying numbers to see what’s working and what isn’t for Betts:

Betts’ bat-to-ball skills are intact. His whiff rates (96th percentile) and strikeout rate (91st percentile) continue to be among the league’s best, and he is regularly hitting the ball on a line. He is keeping the ball off the ground just as he did in his last truly elite offensive season in 2023.

It just hasn’t always been the right type of contact in the air. His percentage of pulled fly balls (21 percent, entering Sunday) is the lowest he’s had in a season since 2019. Most of that contact is going up the middle …

Good morning, baseball fans!

A new week of San Francisco Giants baseball begins today, so let’s take a look at what’s on deck this week.

While the week begins today, the baseball does not. The Giants have the day off, as they head to the east coast to begin a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves tomorrow. After that, they head to Florida to play the Miami Marlins this weekend.

Personally, it’s a tough choice to pick between these series. I think the Braves will be the more difficult opponent. But you can’t rule out the Marlins Death Fog as a factor. With that in mind, I think I’m most interested in the Braves series. Even if I think it’s unlikely the Giants will win the series. At least they’re more likely to leave that series in one piece.

Which series are you most interested in this week?

On the heels of a frustrating loss and a frustrating series, let’s look for positivity today. To achieve this, I will look towards the minor leagues. Instead of my usual minor league update – I’ll probably wait for the first half to be over – I will instead share great performances. Any hitter or pitcher who stands out purely from their performance. Their prospect status doesn’t matter, although obviously it’s better if there are some prospects in this article.

Here’s how to get highlighted today: do something exceptional. I am using qualified MLB rankings as my reference point. I will pick out specific stats and if you have a stat that would rank in the top 30 among qualified players, your stats get shared. For hitters, I will be looking towards elite walk rates, elite K rates, elite power, and of course an elite wRC+. For pitchers, it’ll be K%, GB%, FIP, and K-BB%. I am writing this intro before I’ve seen a single stat so I’m really hoping for some good representation.

Hitters – BB%

The 30th ranked hitter on the qualified leaderboard is Spencer Horwitz, with a 13% BB rate. So anybody with a walk rate equal or better to that is on this list. The Cardinals kind of promoted most of the Memphis list away from this list: Nelson Velazquez, Jimmy Crooks, and Bryan Torres would all be here without a promotion.

Bligh Madris (16.1%)

Overall stats (AAA): 52 G, 211 PAs, .275/.395/.468, 16.1 BB%, 21.3 K%, .193 ISO, .328 BABIP, 128 wRC+

This is timely. On the podcast, Jake Wood asked Alex Coil who was somebody fans were underrated, and with the caveat that he’s a journeyman type, he mentioned Madris. He’s the leader of the clubhouse in Memphis according to him. He’s 30-years-old and was not very good when he got the chance to play in the big leagues, so don’t expect a call-up, but let’s give a little shout-out to Madris here.

Ryan Campos (17.6%)

Overall Stats (AA): 49 G, 210 PAs, .275/.410/.443, 17.6 BB%, 21.4 K%, .168 ISO, .336 BABIP, 128 wRC+

Yeah the Cardinals have a unheralded catching prospect in Springfield who also is managing a .400 OBP on the back of walking a lot. Good luck getting through this group buddy.

Trey Paige (16.8 BB%)

Overall Stats (AA) : 173 PAs, .209/.353/.353, 16.8 BB%, 25.4 K%, .144 ISO, .269 BABIP, 92 wRC+

Orgazational soldier most likely, Paige is 25 in Springfield, but the walks are for real: he’s always had a high walk rate in his minor league career.

Chase Davis (16.7 BB%)

Overall Stats (AA): 156 PAs, .231/.359/.446, 16.7 BB%, 24.4 K%, .215 ISO, .262 BABIP, 110 wRC+

Currently injured, I can’t imagine Davis will have to spend a whole lot more time in Springfield. If he had a normal BABIP, he’d probably be in the wRC+ section too and he narrowly misses the ISO section.

In the spirit of using the qualified batters as a reference point, I didn’t want to share anybody with fewer than 100 PAs, but Jeremy Rivas has walked 17% of the time in his 13 games at Memphis. He narrowly misses the cutoff overall with a 12.8% BB rate between Springfield and Memphis combined.

Dakota Harris (15 BB%)

Overall Stats (AA): 52 G, 206 PAs, .240/.361/.404, 15 BB%, 23.3 K%, .164 ISO, .291 BABIP, 104 wRC+

This is a brand new development for the record. Harris didn’t walk at all before this season. He had a 4.4 BB% in his 2024 season across two levels and a 5.5% one at Springfield last year. I guess he watched Moneyball over the offseason, because holy hell is that a huge jump.

Zach Levenson (14.6 BB%)

Overall Stats (AA): 54 G, 212 PAs, .175/.311/.277, 14.6 BB%, 25.5 K%, .102 ISO, .227 BABIP, 64 wRC+

Well this is kind of a weird one. His K/BB numbers are honestly close to what I’d expect, but he has had no power and nothing is falling for hits.

Cade McGee (16.4 BB%)

Stats (High A): 50 G, 214 PAs, .239/.411/.448, 16.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, .209 ISO, .304 BABIP, 125 wRC+

That is a lot of walks, but his OBP is that high because he also has gotten hit by 14 pitches. He got hit by 7 pitches in 335 PAs last season, so it does not seem like a fluke.

Cameron Nickens (16 BB%)

Stats (Low A): 28 G, 116 PAs, .264/.431/.402, 20.7 BB%, 23.3 K%, .138 ISO, .350 BABIP, 141 wRC+

High A: 17 G, 72 PAs, .238/.306/.333, 8.3 BB%, 30.6 K%, .095 ISO, .333 BABIP, 63 wRC+

Last year’s 17th round pick, Nickens is probably someone I would never mention in a traditional minor league update, so I think it’s at least cool to highlight him here.

Ryan Mitchell (20.7 BB%)

Stats (Low A): 51 G, 237 PAs, .199/.367/.333, 20.7 BB%, 33.8 K%, .134 ISO, .307 BABIP, 107 wRC+

Barring a significant difference in the 2nd half of this season, I suspect Mitchell will probably repeat Low A next year. And that’s when I’m really going to be paying attention.

Ryan Weingartner (17.1 BB%)

Stats (Low A): 51 G, 234 PAs, .222/.368/.344, 17.1 BB%, 22.2 K%, .122 ISO, .278 BABIP, 108 wRC+

Last year’s 8th round pick. Really a lot of this post could just be considered an update on the 2025 draftees. This is where their age really shows, just having a better sense of the strike zone than the pitcher.

Jonathan Mejia (15.8 BB%)

Stats (Low A): 49 G, 215 PAs, .198/.330/.395, 15.8 BB%, 27.4 K%, .198 ISO, .241 BABIP, 103 wRC+

I’m going to stop at Mejia, because a 13% BB rate is actually not remarkable at all at this level, judging by the amount of players I could list. I think nearly 16% is probably still great though.

Hitters – K%

St. Louis Cardinal Alec Burleson ranks 30th – at least before today’s game is taken into account – with a 15.3% K rate. So anything below that is getting mentioned. Blaze Jordan and Torres would be here if they weren’t promoted.

Matt Koperniak (14 K%)

Stats (AAA): 40 G, 157 PAs, .255/.331/.343, 10.2 BB%, 14 K%, .088 ISO, .284 BABIP, 79 wRC+

He’s never been a big strikeout guy, but this would be his professional career low. Unfortunately, his power disappeared.

Cesar Prieto (14.3 K%)

Stats (AAA) : 39 G, 161 PAs, .313/.379/.590, 8.1 BB%, 14.3 K%, .278 ISO, .319 BABIP, 144 wRC+

I guess this is where I list Prieto’s stats, because he qualifies for both power, and overall hitting line. His xwOBA in AAA is just .306 though and of course he went 1 for 23 at the big league so far in his career with yes, zero walks.

Noah Mendlinger (9%)

Stats (AA): 43 G, 199 PAs, .277/.402/.377, 16.1 BB%, 9 K%, .101 ISO, .294 BABIP, 113 wRC+

AAA: 9 G, 24 PAs, .277/.408/.390, 16.6 BB%, 8.3 K%, .113 ISO, .291 BABIP, 158 wRC+

You can see why I chose to put him in the strikeout section right? This is a comically low K% and better yet, it’s reliable. His K% hasn’t touched double digits since 2024. I’m honestly curious at how this would translate to the MLB level.

Jon Jon Gazdar (12.3 K%)

Stats (AA): 49 G, 228 PAs, .232/.330/.340, 11 BB%, 12.3 K%, .108 ISO, .244 BABIP, 80 wRC+

Usually a guy on this list will have a much higher average, but it remains to be seen whether this low average is deserved or unlucky, because that sure is a low BABIP.

Michael Datallo (9.4 K%)

Stats (Low A): 24 G, 106 PAs, .374/.453/.495, 11.3 BB%, 9.4 K%, .121 ISO, .407 BABIP, 165 wRC+

Last year’s 9th round pick has certainly gotten off to an interesting start. You get the answer to the question “What if you took a no power hitter, but he never struck out and had a super high BABIP?” It looks like this.

Hitters – ISO

The 30th ranked ISO in baseball right now is a .230 ISO. We already know Prieto is on this list, so hopefully there are some legit power prospects on here. Just to reiterate that these are important stats, both Jordan and Crooks would have been on this list. Velazquez interestingly isn’t that close.

Joshua Baez (.313)

Stats (AAA) : 60 G, 271 PAs, .272/.339/.584, 7 BB%, 31.4 K%, .313 ISO, .333 BABIP, 131 wRC+

Is it weird that the walks are the thing holding me back from promoting him, not the strikeouts? I mean yes the strikeouts certainly play a part and I want it lower, but in combination with the walks, that’s not ideal. If Crooks had Baez’s walk rate, I don’t think he’d be up right now.

Won-Bin Cho (.230 ISO)

Stats (High A): 50 G, 210 PAs, .270/.395/.500, 15.7 BB%, 15.7 BB%, 25.2 K%, .230 ISO, .345 BABIP, 127 wRC+

Technically, he wouldn’t be on this list anymore because he is at exactly .230 ISO and he didn’t get an extra base hit yesterday, and technically he should be in the BB% section instead. But I am highlight Cho’s power because he has never had issues walking. He had a significant power issue. He might be in Springfield soon.

Tre Richardson (.396 ISO)

Stats (High A): 30 G, 118 PAs, .356/.441/.752, 11.9 BB%, 28.8 K%, .396 ISO, .439 BABIP, .356/.441/.752, 187 wRC+

He’s definitely too old for the level to treat him like a real prospect, but holy hell. This dude had five professional homers in previous 771 PAs. He has hit 11 in 118 PAs this season. This is insane.

Tai Peete (.256 ISO)

Stats (High A): 29 G, 140 PAs, .272/.350/.528, 10.7 BB%, 31.4 K%, .256 ISO, .382 BABIP, 116 wRC+

The Midwest League must be going crazy this year, because that batting line should produce much better than a 116 wRC+. Nonetheless, Peete is only 20-years-old doing this in Peoria. He still has strikeout issues, but we’ll worry about that later.

Jesus Baez (.251 ISO)

Stats (High A): 52 G, 234 PAs, .256/.308/.507, 7.3 BB%, 16.2 K%, .251 ISO, .244 BABIP, 95 wRC+

Yeah definitely, the league is going nuts. That should absolutely not be a below average line. Wow. For whatever reason, power is out of control in this league.

Hitters – wRC+

The 30th ranked hitter in baseball – as of yesterday when I’m writing this, not necessarily when you’re reading this – is Dillon Dingler with a 135 wRC+. Prieto is on this list too. Of the MLBers, Crooks, Jordan and Torres both would be on this list. Hey these guys sure got promoted for a reason. They were killing it.

Sammy Hernandez (186 wRC+)

Stats (High A): 85 PAs, .338/.494/.646, 22.4 BB%, 12.9 K%, .308 ISO, .360 BABIP, 186 wRC+

Hernandez has mostly functioned as the backup catcher, so he doesn’t fit under my 100 PAs threshold. But he could go 0 for 15 and still have above a 130 wRC+ after 100 PAs. He has had an unbelievable first half.

Jack Gurevitch (149 wRC+)

Stats (Low A): 28 G, 128 PAs, .274/.398/.538, 15.6 BB%, 30.5 K%, .264 ISO, .377 BABIP, 154 wRC+

High A: 25 G, 117 PAs, .313/.419/.535, 12 BB%, 24.8 K%, .222 ISO, .391 BABIP, 142 wRC+

After his underwhelming pro debut last year, it’s very encouraging to see Gurevitch build himself into a prospect worth following.

Datallo and Prieto both had a wRC+ greater than 135, but I listed their stats earlier. Tre Richardson also would have been on this list, but I wanted to single out his power. I use stats for combined levels, which is why Raniel Rodriguez is not on any list, if you were wondering.

Pitchers – K%

I’m running a bit long, so I am going to be more selective with my pitchers. For starting pitchers, I want a 30% K rate and for relievers, I want a 35% K rate.

Quinn Mathews (30.2 K%)

Stats (AAA) : 12 GS, 51.2 IP, 30.2 K%, 15.8 BB%, 47.4 GB%, .252 BABIP, 4.01 ERA/4.84 FIP/4.36 xFIP

See, this is why I like this feature. It emphasizes just how many strikeouts Mathews is getting. I wasn’t sure how many starting pitchers would be here, since a 25.6 K% is actually the 30th best performance.

Liam Doyle (30.8 K%)

Stats (AA): 11 GS, 43 IP, 30.8 K%, 11.8 BB%, 29.6 GB%, .381 BABIP, 5.86 ERA/4.38 FIP/4.65 xFIP

He is striking out batters, but he’s not getting many groundballs and his walk rate is a little elevated. Really, the groundballs is just insanely low right now.

Mason Molina (30.2 K%)

Stats (AA): 11 GS, 51.2 IP, 30.2 K%, 10.2 BB%, 32 GB%, .275 BABIP, 3.31 ERA/3.88 FIP/4.46 xFIP

Kind of an interesting quirk that both starting pitchers in Springfield with a greater than 30 K% have a very low GB%, which is a tough way to live in the Springfield park.

Randal Clemente (35.8 K%)

Stats (AA): 16 G, 18 IP, 35.8 K%, 24.2 BB%, 42.1 GB%, .514 BABIP, 10.50 ERA/5.91 FIP/5.01 xFIP

What a weird line. It’s gotten slightly less weird than the last time I shared his stats during the minor league update, but still pretty weird.

Jacob Odle (33.2 K%)

Stats (Low A): 9 G, 33 IP, 36.4 K%, 11.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .343 BABIP, 1.91 ERA/2.94 FIP/2.84 xFIP

Stats (High A): 3 GS, 10 IP, 23.4 K%, 23.4 BB%, 43.5 GB%, .250 BABIP, 5.40 ERA/9.58 FIP/6.90 xFIP

Odle has had two really bad starts in High A, and one really good start in High A. He has really taken to the extremes in each. In the first, he walked six batters. In the second start, he struck out 8. And in his most recent start, he allowed three homers. He has not heard of a ho hum start.

Xavier Cruz (44 K%)

Stats (CPX): 5 G, 15.1 IP, 43.5 K%, 12.9 BB%, 47.4 GB%, 3.52 ERA/5.88 FIP/3.01 xFIP

Stats (Low A): 1 G, 2.2 IP, 46.2 K%, 23.1 BB%, 66.7 GB%, .333 BABIP, 0.00 ERA/3.70 FIP/3.70 xFIP

That is a comically high K% and yeah it’s only been one Low A appearance, but holy cow. This dude wasn’t that good in the DSL last year as a 19-year-old. And now he’s striking out 44% of hitters he faces.

Dylan Dreissen (38.5 K%)

Stats (Low A): 17 G, 22 IP, 38.5 K%, 12.1 BB%, 46.5 GB%, .357 BABIP, 2.86 ERA/3.34 FIP/3.05 xFIP

Last year’s 18th round pick, Dreissen was a multi-inning reliever in college who was not particularly good. And that’s why they were able to nab him in last year’s draft in the 18th round. He’s got swing-and-miss, that’s for sure.

Cade Crossland (34.3 K%)

Stats (Low A): 12 GS, 50.2 IP, 34.3 K%, 16.9 BB%, 36.8 GB%, .247 BABIP, 3.91 ERA/4.23 FIP/4.34 xFIP

It’s hard to promote him with that walk rate, but it does kind of feel like someone who strikes out over a third of batters as a starting pitcher is just not dealing with a high enough quality of hitters for him.

Jack Martinez (32.5 K%)

Stats (Low A): 12 GS, 46.1 IP, 32.5 K%, 13.5 BB%, 31.3 GB%, .255 BABIP, 4.08 ERA/4.16 FIP/4.63 xFIP

He’s fairly old for this level, but it’s cool that the return for Nolan Arenado is striking out 32.5% of hitters he’s facing as a starter.

Pitchers – K/BB%

The 30th best K/BB% among pitchers was 21.2%, so anything above that I will highlight.

Cade Winquest (30.2 K/BB%)

Stats (AAA): 11 G, 12.2 IP, 35.8 K%, 5.7 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .346 BABIP, 5.68 ERA/4.00 FIP/3.10 xFIP

It hasn’t really shown in actual results quite yet, but Winquest is treating AAA like we would hope he would AAA. Tons of strikeouts, not many walks. If he keeps pitching like this, we’ll see him in St. Louis this season.

Ryan Fernandez (24.6 K/BB%)

Stats (AAA): 13 G, 14.2 IP, 29.8 K%, 5.3 BB%, 40.5 GB%, .229 BABIP, 3.07 ERA/3.59 FIP/3.19 xFIP

Fernandez is pitching pretty well in AAA and his K/BB% in the majors is also excellent. Let’s hope that continues.

Yhoiker Fajardo (23.2 K/BB%)

Stats (High A): 11 GS, 46 IP, 30.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, 41.3 GB%, .391 BABIP, 3.72 ERA/4.72 FIP/4.02 xFIP

He could have also gone on the K% list, but especially as a starting pitcher, I find landing on this list much more impressive. Almost as impressive as having a .391 BABIP and a 3.72 ERA, that seems difficult.

Payton Graham (24.4 K/BB%)

Stats (CPX): 4 GS, 12.2 IP, 38.9 K%, 8.3 BB%, 50 GB%, .263 BABIP, 1.86 ERA/2.09 FIP/2.77 xFIP

(Low A): 4 GS, 12.2 IP, 28 K%, 8 BB%, 19.4 GB%, .207 BABIP, 4.97 ERA/5.52 FIP/4.95 xFIP

Listing Graham breaks the spirit of this, because I think the complex games were essentially rehab for him, but I wanted an excuse to list his stats. Despite a fairly strong K/BB% in Low A, almost everything is hit in the air and he’s allowed 3 homers in his 12.2 IP.

Pitchers – GB%

Alright, we have two standards here. For starting pitchers, anything above a 48.4 GB%, and for relievers, it will be as high as a 55 GB%.

Hunter Dobbins (51.5 GB%)

Stats (AAA): 9 GS, 44.2 IP, 17.7 K%, 7.5 BB%, 51.5 GB%, .275 BABIP, 3.43 ERA/4.64 FIP/4.79 xFIP

I’ve mentioned this before and I’ll do it again. I don’t know what the MLB version of Dobbins looks like, but the version in Memphis looks a hell of a lot like Andre Pallante. Whether you consider that good or bad is up to you.

Leonel Sequera (50.3 GB%)

Stats (AAA): 12 GS, 51.1 IP, 25.1 K%, 9.3 BB%, 50.3 GB%, .393 BABIP, 8.59 ERA/6.63 FIP/4.45 xFIP

It is so weird to look at my identifying stat first, not knowing what his pitching line looks like, going through the list, thinking I’m about to have a good pitching line and then get hit with an 8.59 ERA. He’s not pitching as poorly as that would suggest.

Brian Holiday (55.8 GB%)

Stats (CPX): 4 GS, 9.2 IP, 30.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 60 GB%, .333 BABIP, 4.66 ERA/5.09 FIP/3.08 xFIP

Low A: 3 GS, 13 IP, 16.7 K%, 6.3 BB%, 54.1 GB%, .118 BABIP, 3.46 ERA/6.16 FIP/4.91 xFIP

As maybe expected, a guy returning from injury is throwing up some meatballs it appears. He’s allowed 5 homers in 22.2 innings. Which is especially notable, because most everything hit against him is on the ground.

Pitchers – FIP

For starting pitchers, I just need an FIP lower than 3.09. For relievers though, I’m looking for a 2.55 FIP. Some of the run environments in the system make this a little bit of harshly high standard admittedly.

Pete Hansen (2.82 FIP)

Stats (AAA): 9 GS, 36.2 IP, 25.3 K%, 7.8 BB%, 46.5 GB%, .337 BABIP, 4.17 ERA/2.82 FIP/3.81 xFIP

We caught Pete at a good time. I don’t think he has a 3.09 FIP right now. Last night, he gave up a homer, walked one and struck out three. His FIP is so low because of the homers, I’m guessing it’ll see a big jump.

Hunter Kublick (2.76 FIP)

Stats (Low A): 10 G, 10.2 IP, 22.4 K%, 6.1 BB%, 52.9 GB%, .412 BABIP, 5.91 ERA/2.76 FIP/4.18 xFIP

Unfortunately, he’s on this list because he hasn’t allowed a homer. Not that you want someone to allow a homer, just kind of makes their FIP untrustworthy. But he’s doing two things right: not a lot of walks and groundballs aplenty.

And that’s the list. As I suspected the FIP numbers were a little bit unreasonable, but that’s not necessarily the go-to stat for minor league performance anyway.