Category: MLB

Before we begin looking ahead to 2027, OTM is looking back at 2026, highlighting some of the biggest, strangest, and most memorable moments of a memorable season. Today, we look at a game that came to symbolize the team’s limp September.

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We were still coming down from the high. 32-5 was a bit in the rearview on the first day of September, but Fenway was still rocking every night, as it had all summer. I was fortunate enough to be there for the first game at home after the Summer Solstice, when the Red Sox beat the Yankees to start that 37-game stretch. I was unfortunate enough to be there for the Jedixson Paez game, which was the unofficial end to my summer and, in many ways, the Red Sox 2026 season.

The Sox arrived at Fenway for a quick three-game home series, coming off losing 3-of-4 in the Bronx. Now four games behind the Yankees in the standings, with four weeks to go, the odds were not in their favor to flip the fourth and fifth seeds to get a home game at Fenway for the first time since 2021. That being said, this had not been an ordinary season, and if the team played with the same sense of urgency in September as they had with their season (and jobs) on the line all summer, it could be done. Hell, they had just made up 14 games in the standings in six weeks’ worth of games, cutting a 14.5-game deficit to the Yankees on June 25th down to a 1/2 game apart on August 7th. Four games should be child’s play.

In the first game against the Mariners, the Fenway Magic continued. Boston trailed 8-5 entering the bottom of the eighth inning, around the time that Tarps Off in the crowd usually peaked. Julio Rodriguez overran a fly ball; combined with three RBI from Trevor Story (including a walk-off in extra innings) and another improbable W was in the books.

And then the calendar turned to September.

“Wait ‘til you see this place. It’s complete madness, every night,” I told my friends who hadn’t been to a game with me at Fenway since the Spring. They were treated to a Jedixson Paez start. Sure, the Red Sox needed to build an extra rest day in for the starting pitchers who were approaching, or had already surpassed, career highs in innings. But they were still in a pennant race and had won plenty of games when they were underdogs on paper for months. The urgency will still be there, right?

The game started in the same way that it usually did – with a Mickey Gasper home run in the first inning. It tied the game at 1, his seventh home run in two weeks, sandwiched around a Bad Karma demotion. Then, in the top of the second inning against Paez, the Mariners went: Double, Single, Walk, Sac Fly, Single, 3-run Home Run.

6-1 Mariners. No one getting loose in the bullpen!

Top of the 3rd: Groundout, Single, Single, Single, Walk. No one getting loose in the bullpen! They’ve thrown in the towel!!

Paez gave up two doubles in the fourth inning before mercifully being replaced by Wyatt Olds in an 8-to-1 game. Final line: 3 2/3 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 HR.

The ‘pen did what they did for most of the season. They allowed just one run over the remaining 5 1/3 innings and would have kept the team in the game for a comeback, as the Sox added runs in the late innings to force closer Andres Munoz into the game to close out a 9-6 win for the Mariners.

As September unfolded, the Paez start was a microcosm of a month where the team was never able to get their foot back on the gas pedal. Health was prioritized all month, while, somehow, they got more unhealthy. The team didn’t care about many of the games, so the crowd didn’t care about many of the games, and the energy rarely returned to the park, finishing 12-12 on the month. Their final win of the season was a Friday Night at Fenway where, of all people, Jedixson Paez was recalled to throw five shutout innings and was credited with the win in relief. It was a great moment of redemption for a pitcher who unfairly had his debut in Boston turn into a circus that he hadn’t asked for.

Grabbing the best ticket in town on September 1st treated you to the 2026 version of the Kyle Barraclough Game. Refunds were deserved for the 35,758 in attendance. For whatever reason, I haven’t gotten mine yet.

Continuing the series, let’s move to the outfield.

How to improve the Phillies: catcher
How to improve the Phillies: infield

Ah, the Phillies outfield. Long a wasteland of offensive ineptitude, 2026 saw the unit begin with questions in all three spots and end with….questions in all three spots. Try as they might, they just can’t seem to get themselves to make a roster have three outfielders at the same time that one would feel comfortable with in any situation.

How dire did it get?

“Bryan de la Cruz was hitting fifth in a playoff game” dire.

With the offseason approaching, the team is left with more questions yet again and finding itself having few answers from outside the organization. Fixing this years long issue will require creativity and usage of resources that they may not feel comfortable with. Yet if they do not, there will likely be still more questions as the season goes on.

Who they have

A lot of the “who they have” section will probably be decided after the deadline passes on whether or not the team should offer arbitration to eligible players. Three outfielders that the team currently has under team control – Brandon Marsh, Bryan de la Cruz and Derek Hill – can be tendered a contract by the team, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be tendered a contract. It’s likely that Hill will be as his rather meager projection is more than palatable ($1.5 million) for someone who profiles well as a fourth outfielder. Giving an offer to de la Cruz doesn’t make much sense as it would unnecessarily lock up a roster spot on a guaranteed deal, but who knows.

The real question is what are they going to do with Brandon Marsh. Offering him a contract to be a platoon player would cost the team ~$9 million, but nontendering him means losing him for nothing. His crash and burn to a promising 2026 season muddies the water a bit on that question of whether or not to bring him back, but it has become a very real puzzle piece that they need to figure out.

Then there is Justin Crawford. Is he a center fielder? Is he better suited to left field a la Chandler Simpson? Is he trade bait? Figuring out where to actually play him will go a long way to determining what they will chase in free agency or the trade market.

Oh, wait, what’s on the farm you ask?

<tumble weed passes by>

Free agent options

Welcome to the land of opportunity!

“What opportunity?”, you ask. Why, the opportunity to either finally address a long festering issue with the Phillies’ roster by acquiring a real, honest to goodness solution to their outfield problem once and for all, the opportunity to patch over the issue once again with cheap, hope for the best band aids or the opportunity to once again do nothing at all and roll with what is currently on the roster.

Teruaki Sato – This list probably begins and ends with Sato. The Phillies have been looking to tap into the Japanese market for years, even offering Yoshinobu Yamamoto more money than what he eventually signed for with the Dodgers, only to come up short in each venture. This year, there is a feeling that they will not be denied. There have been multiple reports of Preston Mattingly personally going overseas to scout Sato, an indication of just how serious they are about bringing him aboard.

Seiya Suzuki – If the Phillies are truly interested in bringing in a consistent performer in an outfield corner, the Phillies could do worse than offering Suzuki a deal. He’s as metronomic as it gets at the plate, posting a wRC+ of 118 or higher in each season since he has come stateside. Twenty home runs hit in all but one season as well. He’s right handed and would be as perfect as it comes. The problem? He’s probably a DH and the team has one of those. Granted, he is coming off of his best season as a right fielder defensively, which is huge for him and his trying to create a market as an outfielder, but as someone that will play most of 2027 as a 32 year old, does anyone really believe he’s going to remain a solid option with the glove? Are the Phillies willing to shell out serious money to be on that?

Randy Arozarena – If Suzuki was consistent, what does that make Arozarena? He too has posted a wRC+ higher than 114 in each of the seasons he has played since his debut and is coming off a season in which he put up a 151. He hits for power, he has a decently patient approach and even steals some bases. He’ll play all of 2027 as a 32 year old and is a great option to give the Nick Castellanos to……as long as they don’t care about defense. Because boy oh boy is Arozarena a butcher with the glove. He makes Castellanos look positively average in the grass.

Ian Happ – If there was a “Big Three” as far as outfield free agents, Happ would definitely be the third. He provides a decent amount of skill at the plate – power, patience, on base ability – while not killing a team with his glove. His 107 wRC+ this year was his lowest in five years and brings up a question about his long term capability. One would have to assume he’ll be after a multi year deal, but as he’s the same age as Suzuki, the Phillies need to wonder if they’d want to attach themselves to that kind of player for a long time. Being a switch hitter makes him maybe slightly more appealing than Arozarena, but that would splitting hairs. He’s a good player, but for how much longer?

Taylor Ward – By now, you know the story with Ward: he’s right handed, can stand in left field and gets on base a lot. Except that once he was finally (mercifully?) traded this August, he kind of cratered. Like, cratered in a way (.125/.238/.148 in 101 plate appearances) that one has to at least wonder if there is anything wrong with him. He’ll still get a solid contract, but boy howdy did he hurt his market.

Jake Bauers – The post-World Series glow with Bauers is going to get him paid. He was really good this past season with Milwaukee and an even more good postseason. The thing with Bauers is: do you really think he’s even an outfielder? He played some left and right with the Brewers this year, but looked much better suited to being a first baseman. He might be able to shift around with the Phillies like he did with the Brewers, particularly with the stated plan of getting Schwarber more time at 1B and Harper some time in the outfield. This might be something to consider.

Ramon Laureano – We are entering the land of “one year deals” with these next few. Each one could have something good to say about them as well as something bad. For Laureano, he’s right handed! Woo! His biggest problem is health. He never seems to be able to stay on the field.

Cedric Mullins – If you’re going to sign Mullins, might as well just see if Justin Crawford can continue to develop.

Lane Thomas – Listen, if you want Lane Thomas, just sign Taylor Ward. It’s probably a better usage of that kind of money anyway. Granted, bringing Thomas aboard would be cheaper than Ward, but the latter, over the past three seasons, has been significantly better at the plate than the former. They both hit lefties well, though Ward has better power, which means Thomas would be a better choice if the desire is to have him strictly as a platoon bat.

Adolis Garcia – I mean….

Trade options

Is anyone going to trade an outfielder? The position just posted its second worst wRC+ in the last twenty years, so one would think that if any team had a player that was even remotely capable of playing good outfield defense and being competent at the plate, that team would hold onto him like grim death.

Predicted outcome

For the first time when considering what the Phillies plan to do with addressing a team need at a position, I really, truly don’t know what they are going to do.

Back in 2023, it was clear that the Phillies needed a shortstop, so seeing all the available options that year made it pretty clear they weren’t leaving free agency without someone. They ended up with Trea Turner. When they have needed a starter or a reliever, they have done so.

Now that they have a chance to do something about the outfield, I just don’t know which direction they are going to go. Will they go with only defense, offensive production be damned? Are they going to do the inverse, forgoing the leather in favor of helping an offense that could use an outside boost? It’s just so unclear what they plan on doing.

My crazy idea is to peddle Gage Wood for a similarly close to the majors outfield bat, preferably a right handed one. The natural inclination is to look west at the Dodgers, who seemingly have a plethora of outfield bats bottlenecking at the Triple-A level. While I wouldn’t exactly trust that the Phillies can develop a player at the major league level as a bat, that was before they decided to re-do their hitting instruction program. Now, I’m a little more optimistic. Of course, that would mean parting with someone is considered depth for their rotation, something they don’t have a lot of, which would make it a crazy idea in the first place.

My prediction would ultimately be that they keep Crawford and Hill in some capacity, trade Marsh and sign two other outfielders, one being a starter and the other being a quasi-starter. Who that starter is will remain TBD, but I’ll say it’s Sato.

This photo is significant for a number of reasons.

First, it shows two members of the Houston Astros visiting Wrigley Field in the first year the team from Houston was called that. They’d renamed from “Colt .45s,” often shortened to just “Colts,” to mark the opening of the first MLB domed stadium, the Astrodome, in 1965.

The players are Joe Morgan and Nellie Fox.

And so, even though we can’t see the Wrigley Field scoreboard in this photo, we can absolutely narrow this down to one specific date.

Morgan was a rookie in 1965, though he had played briefly in September callups in 1963 and 1964. Fox played for Houston in 1964 and 1965. But we already know, based on the uniforms, that this is ‘65.

In those days, all teams played 18 games against each other, nine home, nine road. The Astros were at Wrigley Field for a four-game series from May 7-9, 1965. But the ivy is too full in the photo for it to be early May.

The Astros were also at Wrigley Field for a four-game series from Aug. 20-22, 1965, the Aug. 20 date a doubleheader from a June 29 rainout.

But Fox had been released by Houston on July 31, ending his career.

The June 29 date was part of what was supposed to be a two-game series. Thus, this photo had to have been taken on the other date, Monday, June 28, 1965.

The Cubs won that game 7-2. Morgan went 1-for-4, a home run off Cubs starter Larry Jackson. Fox batted for Houston starter Dave Giusti in the sixth inning and singled. Giusti would later become an ace reliever for the Pirates, starring for them in the 1971 World Series, and posting a 2.97 lifetime ERA with 15 saves in 73 games against the Cubs. He pitched briefly and ineffectively for the Cubs in 1977 before retiring.

Morgan was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1990. Fox, who died of cancer in 1975, way too young at 47, was elected to the Hall by a Veterans Committee vote in 1997.

I usually wait at least a night to comment on huge news items like this. Immediate reactions bring rash statements one way or another. Ultimately, there are three competing narrativs when it comes to the hire of Randy Flores as general manager and all three narratives have kernels of truth in them. So, all of them are right and all of them are wrong perhaps in equal measure. Essentially, we have the glass half full approach, glass half empty approach, and the middle ground approach. We will look at each one by one.

Glass Half Full

If one looks at the failures of the Astros organization in recent seasons, one can look no further than the disintegration of the minor league system. Obviously, there are a number of factors that play into that. Every major league team lost much of the 2020 draft due to COVID. Then, the league took the Astros first and second round picks for two seasons because of the sign stealing scandal. Then, you have to account for losing prospects in trades to keep the championship window open.

So, saying the Astros’ farm system was terrible is not a complete indictment of Dana Brown or James Click before him. However, Flores comes over primarily with a player development background. Baseball America ranked the Cardinals as the number second overall farm system in MLB coming into 2026. In full disclosure, that ranking was higher than the Cardinals had been in recent seasons likely due to their sell off of veterans prior to the 2026 season. Baseball America had them ranked towards the middle of the pack for much of the previous decade where they ranked as low as 20th and as high as ninth. The Astros never ranked better than 24th in the same time.

Fangraphs had the Cardinals ranked fourth last season. So, multiple sources considered the Cardinals to be among the best farm systems in baseball in 2026. Flores began his work in 2015 officially, but was already gaining marks for innovation before he joined the Cardinals. That would seem to compliment the Driveline executives the Astros just brought in. It is impossible to know whether any move will be positive in the moment, but at least Flores was sought after by other clubs. He had interviewed in Baltimore and was listed as a prime candidate in Anaheim as well. This is as opposed to Dana Brown who was not a candidate anywhere other than Houston before he was hired.

I hate to make this comparison because it is unfair to Brown, but his hiring felt similar to the Houston Texans hiring David Culley. Again, this isn’t to say that Brown was as large a buffoon as Culley clearly was, but they came in with similar resumes. They were assistants that no one considered to be head coach or general manager material. Flores is at least a guy other people think should be considered for a head job. So, that would make him the Astros version of DeMeco Ryans.

Glass Half Empty

This ends up being a public relations mess for Jim Crane and the Houston Astros. Most of the last week was spent focusing on assistant general manager Matt Kleine. Kleine was one of the key deputies in Milwaukee and was reportedly the Astros number one candidate throughout the last week or so. Of course, this is when solid reporting starts to feel a little like quicksand as people look at rumors, innuendo and then add two and two to get seventeen.

What we know for a fact is that Kleine recently signed a four year contract extension with the Brewers. Exactly when that extension was signed and the exact terms of the extension we do not know. We do know that getting him would have required a buyout. From here, we go back into speculation mode. There were reports that Kleine wanted more money. There were other reports that he wanted the title of President of Baseball Operations. There are further reports that he wanted more autonomy. All of these things could have been true and none of them could have been true. I suspect that there is some kernel of truth to all of it, but we don’t know the details. So, we don’t know exactly what kept an agreement from taking place.

We also don’t know how committed the Astros were that Kleine was their number one choice. This will be a key area for them to clean up during the introductory press conference on Monday at 10 AM. Crane will need to sell the media and fanbase on Flores being their choice. I suspect that sell job will fall short. I’m not sure there is any satisfactory way to explain to a fanbase that expects results that you were unable to get your guy. That means selling Flores and selling him hard.

As someone more plugged in than most, I am not sure the analytical chops that Flores brings to the job. It is easy for him to sell himself on the results the Cardinals farm system has experienced, but how does that translate to the rest of a baseball operation? Kleine seemed to be a little more involved in the other day to day operations in Milwaukee, but that could be a misplaced perception. Only time will tell of course.

The Reality Based Narrative

This might be what we would call the marriage between the glass half empty and glass half full approach. I start by asking a couple of governing questions. Is the organization in better hands today than it was before the decision was made? In other words, is Randy Flores destined to be better than Dana Brown? Of course, I can’t say for sure, but the reasonable answer would be yes. A part of that calculation would have to be all of the recent hires the Astros have made around Flores to help with the player development and analytics side of things.

I think most people would agree that we would all feel more comfortable if the general manager made those decisions on staffings that work directly for him, but the Astros don’t operate that way for whatever reason. At the very least, Flores gets to be intimately involved in picking a manager. So, while it would be projection, we would have to say that the Flores/future manager combination will be superior to the Dana Brown/Joe Espada combination. That of course has to include all of the hires the organization has made in the last couple of weeks.

The second governing question is whether anything fundamentally changes in the way things run under Flores. I have no idea at this point and no one does. That is the reality. We don’t know if Crane will trust Flores more and give him more decision making power. Maybe Flores being a former player gives him an upperhand in terms of communicating a vision that Crane and Jeff Bagwell can buy into. Maybe Crane will never trust an executive again to have more autonomy. We just don’t know.

If I were to harbor a guess, I would guess he has more authority than Brown had in 2026. I think Crane knew he was moving on from Brown and just didn’t want to pull the trigger yet. In that scenario, you wouldn’t empower a lame duck much power to do anything really. Of course, that raises all kinds of questions as to why you are allowing someone you don’t believe in to continue doing the job, but we can set those questions aside for now. The point is that Flores has more immediate power than Brown did at the end of his tenure. How much more power? We are in no position to know.

This will be an important question as there are tons of decisions that could be made. Some of those decisions involve potentially dealing away valuable assets. Will Flores be empowered to do it? Will he have to clear each decision through Crane and Jeff Bagwell? Will Crane completely refuse to consider that option at the outset? We really don’t have answers to any of those questions yet. Until we know it is impossible to really give a full answer on this hire.

Ah, Halloween. On this glorious intersection of Allhallowtide and capitalist consumerism run rampant, we herald in the year’s final days by celebrating all things spooky, as we let ghouls, goblins, and children dressed up in overpriced costumes run wild in one last day and night of outdoor tomfoolery before the cold darkness of a lockout-lengthened winter sets in.

In the spirit of this haunting-filled day, let’s look back at the last few years. While, perhaps understandably, we tend to focus on the Yankees’ recent history, many of the decisions made over the last couple of years have been influenced by actions — or the lack of action — taken by the team as long ago as a decade. Which moves have haunted the Bronx the most in recent years? Let’s take a trip down memory lane.

Austerity in 2018-2019

To some extent, everything comes back to the 2018-19 offseason, when Manny Machado and Bryce Harper were free agents. Following a year in which the Yankees won 100 games but were absolutely shellacked by the eventual champion Red Sox team. That Bombers team had an aging Brett Gardner in left, Didi Gregorius out for months due to a torn UCL, and a ton of uncertainty in the infield — Luke Voit’s breakout was fun, but there’s always reason to be wary of an age-27 breakout at first base; meanwhile, a young Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar had finished second and third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, but there was reason to skeptical of Andujar’s performance at the plate and his ability to stick at third long-term. In short: the Yankees were good, but not so good that they couldn’t benefit from adding a superstar in his age-26 season, and lo and behold, not only were there two of them out there on the market, both were interested in donning the pinstripes — and Harper was supposedly even willing to learn first base to do it.

So naturally, the Yankees prioritized getting under the luxury tax, and well, since then, they’ve had problem after problem that could’ve been solved by literally having paid one of these two guys — especially Machado. Concerns about Andujar turned out to be warranted, and then he tore his labrum. It’s only now as a part-time player over the past two years that he’s finally been able to carve out a role for himself. Gio Urshela was really good replacing him during the #NextManUp campaign, and followed that up with a solid 2020, but soon regressed into the journeyman utility player he had been. The Josh Donaldson experience? A disaster. DJ LeMahieu? The first contract worked, but he soon became always injured. Oswaldo Cabrera? Although a fun player, never more than a fill-in. Jazz Chisholm Jr.? A second baseman out of position. Ryan McMahon? Somehow a brief improvement before an ugly 2026. Sure, Machado’s contract is now a bit of an albatross, as he’s owed $39 million through 2033, but that’s the result of the extension the Padres signed him to, not the original deal.

The biggest excuse given for not seriously pursuing Harper in 2018 was that he was an outfielder, and the Yankees had plenty of depth there. Well, Father Time came for Gardner, injuries caught up to Giancarlo Stanton and Clint Frazier, and Aaron Hicks experienced a severe and sudden decline. Since 2019, the Yankees have traded for Joey Gallo, Harrison Bader, Alex Verdugo, Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, and Heliot Ramos in order to fix their outfield — and that doesn’t include the small army of players acquired simply to get injuries, such as Mike Tauchman and Jake Bauers, or the multiple prospects who have failed to stick. The team sure could’ve used Harper in any of those stretches … oh, and as it turns out, he’s a decent enough first baseman, too — yet another position that has been a bit of a revolving door.

Sure, the Yankees may currently be fine at the first base/DH spot and have their corner outfield set, but let’s be real, each of the last few seasons has ended with Hal Steinbrenner on the podium saying the team needs to be more consistent at the plate, and either one of these two would have gone a long way towards remedying that problem.

The Shortstop Problem

In the days following the 2014 season, the main question surrounding the Yankees was, “How are they going to replace the legendary Derek Jeter?” The solution, as it turned out, was rather easy: Didi Gregorius, a young shortstop acquired from the Arizona Diamondback as part of a three-way deal in exchange for Shane Greene. While it wasn’t quite as seamless as the DiMaggio-to-Mantle transition in the 1950s, Sir Didi went on to become a fan favorite — and, at least during the juiced ball era, a veritable middle-of-the-order bat.

Unfortunately, once Gregorius’s years of team control ran out after the 2019 season, the Yankees embarked on a years-long merry-go-round trying to replace him. First, the team turned to former top prospect Gleyber Torres, who had performed admirably filling in at shortstop when Gregorius was injured but was clearly most comfortable at the keystone — something that was clear to anybody with eyes after the 2020 season; the team then had to keep him at short after re-signing LeMahieu instead of making a harder push for Francisco Lindor. When that, rather predictably, failed, the team had to use Urshela and the anonymous Andrew Velazquez there down the stretch in 2021.

Rather than trying to sign Carlos Correa to the pillow contract he ended up getting from the Twins or making a play for future Rangers World Series MVP Corey Seager, the Yankees then swung a deal for Isiah Kiner-Falefa (not a bad player, miscast as a starting shortstop on a contender). When that went bust, they then handed the keys over to another top prospect who profiled more as a second baseman while in the minors, Anthony Volpe. The 22-year-old beat out fellow acclaimed up-and-comer Oswald Peraza, but neither were truly up for the job. Despite some stretches of time in which he looked to be taking the next step offensively — and a Gold Glove in what was admittedly a down year for AL shortstops — that ended as well as the Torres experiment. In the meantime, they opted not to pursue a shortstop in free agency, leaving them with no other options.

Will George Lombard Jr. help get the Yankees out of their post-Gregorius cycle, and finally allow this ghost to reset? I’m hopeful, but it remains to be seen.

The Devin Williams Conundrum

Once the Yankees signed Max Fried during the 2024-25 offseason, the rotation seemed to be a bit overflowing with arms, especially lefties. As such, the team decided to package Nestor Cortes with Caleb Durbin, a relatively minor infield prospect whose stock had risen during the 2024 season, and sent them both to the Brewers in exchange for arguably the best closer in baseball, Devin Williams. It was a move that, at the time, made sense: Clay Holmes was departing in free agency, the team needed another bullpen arm, and at the time, Nasty Nestor was behind Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, and Clarke Schmidt in the rotation pecking order.

This move, though, has already had major consequences — and will continue to do so, for the foreseeable future. First, the injury bug hit the Yankees rotation hard in 2025: Cole missed the full season with a torn UCL, Schmidt was gone for the latter half, and Gil made just 11 starts. The team was forced to rely on Marcus Stroman, who they had tried to dump that winter, and Ryan Yarbrough, who was signed as a bullpen arm, for 17 starts (oh, and both of them also hit the shelf). If it wasn’t for Cam Schlittler’s breakout and the trio of Fried, Rodón, and a rookie Will Warren making 33 starts apiece, the season would’ve been a disaster; and while Cortes himself spent much of the year injured, the psychological part of trading away what would have been sorely-needed depth stung.

To make matters worse, Durbin has developed into a solid third baseman with a league average bat, who finished top-three in the NL Rookie of the Year vote in 2025 before getting shipped to the Red Sox over the winter. Although he’s no superstar, his 4.4 rWAR/2.8 fWAR would have been miles better than the replacement-level play the Yankees got at the hot corner this season.

Had Williams been a dominant closer, this would have been an OK pill to swallow. Except … he was easily the second-worst closer the Yankees have had in recent years, and probably the worst when you factor in only the performance on the field.

Aroldis Chapman

The list of baseball-related things my Boston friends and I agree on is very short. Johnny Damon was fun to watch. The Mookie Betts trade was a disgrace. Aroldis Chapman sucks.

Yea, that’s pretty much it. From a purely baseball perspective, the decision to trade for Chapman was great — the prospects the Yankees sent over didn’t really amount to anything. The decision to trade him to the Cubs was even better, as it introduced Gleyber to the Bronx and brought Adam Warren back where he belonged. The decision to sign him again that winter was…defensible, even if I didn’t exactly love the idea of spending big money on a reliever during what I expected to be a down year (remember, expectations heading into 2017 were low). So why does this move haunt the Yankees? Well, because I absolutely despise the fact that he ever donned the pinstripes, and hate the fact that, if I ever need to look up his stats on Baseball Reference after he retires, there’s a solid chance the site will use a picture of him in a Yankee uniform as his profile picture since his seven seasons in the Bronx represents—and will likely forever represent—his longest tenure with any one team.

You’ll hear boos from more than just ghosts if you ever play that clip in the Bronx.

With the Milwaukee Brewers winning their first-ever World Series title, there are only four Major League Baseball franchises who have never won a championship: the San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays.

But the longest drought in baseball belongs to Cleveland, which last won a championship in 1948. They've coming agonizingly close, losing the 1997 and 2016 Fall Classics in seven games. Other previous champions in the midst of droughts of at least 40 years are the Pittsburgh Pirates (1979), Baltimore Orioles (1983), Detroit Tigers (1984) and New York Mets (1986).

Of the four teams to have never won a World Series, the Mariners are the only team that has not even reached the Fall Classic.

Buy Brewers World Series celebration book

Here's a look at the longest World Series droughts after the Brewers' triumph:

MLB longest World Series droughts

1. Cleveland Guardians: 78 seasons (Last title: 1948)

2. San Diego Padres: 58 seasons (Never won; joined 1969)

3. Seattle Mariners: 50 seasons (Never won/appeared; joined 1977)

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 47 seasons (Last title: 1979)

5. Baltimore Orioles: 43 seasons (Last title: 1983)

6. Detroit Tigers: 42 seasons (Last title: 1984)

7. New York Mets: 40 seasons (Last title: 1986)

8. Oakland Athletics: 37 seasons (Last title: 1989)

9. Cincinnati Reds: 36 seasons (Last title: 1990)

10. Minnesota Twins: 35 seasons (Last title: 1991)

11. Colorado Rockies: 34 seasons (Never won; joined 1993)

12. Toronto Blue Jays: 33 seasons (Last title: 1993)

13. Tampa Bay Rays: 29 seasons (Never won; joined 1998)

14. Arizona Diamondbacks: 25 seasons (Last title: 2001)

15. Los Angeles Angels: 24 seasons (Last title: 2002)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB's longest World Series droughts: What teams are up next?

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Good morning, LSB.

Joc Pederson has said no thanks on his 2027 mutual option and will hit free agency.

Ditto Kyle Higashioka and Jakob Junis.

And the Astros have found their new GM after a lengthy search.

And that appears to be about all there is this morning.

Have a good weekend!

The Yankees are shaking things up in their front office. 

While GM Brian Cashman has already confirmed that he will be sticking around in the Bronx on a new deal, the club will not be renewing the contracts of Omar Minaya or Brian Sabean, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post. 

Both served as special assistants to Cashman during their time with the organization. 

Minaya joined the Yanks during the 2023 offseason, two years after wrapping up his third stint with the Mets. 

The long-time baseball executive worked his way up to the GM role on the other side of town, then returned to them as a special assistant to Sandy Alderson, before taking his talents to the Bronx. 

Sabean began his involvement in baseball as a scout for the Yanks in 1985, and after a long tenure with the Giants that saw him eventually bumped up to the head man role, he returned to the Big Apple in 2023. 

David Lesky writes about what the Royals can learn from the Brewers.

The Brewers simply hit on pitching. They strike guys out. They had 18 guys throw at least 20 innings. The league average strikeout rate in 2026 was 22.1 percent. The Brewers had 13 of those 18 above league average. The Royals also had 18 pitchers throw at least 20 innings. Four of them had a better-than-average strikeout rate. One of them was Cole Ragans and one was Kris Bubic. I suppose the Royals could sign Bubic, but it’s not anything I’d predict and Ragans won’t be a factor until midseason at best. It’s not even about the walks as much as the strikeouts. Eight of the 18 Brewers walked more than league average. It was 10 for the Royals, which isn’t all that different. The Royals need more strikeouts.

Craig Brown reflects on the World Series.

A couple of stray World Series thoughts as we process a long winter (and probably spring) ahead…

I felt the similarities between the Brewers and the 2015 Royals in that both teams played a form of what I’ve taken to call Total Baseball in that they do just about everything right. Strong starting pitching? Check. A selfless move-the-line batting order? Uh-huh. A lockdown bullpen? For sure. Clutch hits, including home runs? Yep. Hell, both teams check the box with salt of the earth managers who are refreshingly honest.

MLB Trade Rumors lists top trade candidates for this offseason, with mentions for Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, and Kyle Isbel.

A Bleacher Report writers imagines a Bobby Witt Jr. trade to Boston

So, you want to trade for Witt? Well, this is what it would take. Or something like it, anyway.

Tolle? He’s a potential ace-caliber lefty who still has five years of club control left. Abreu? He’s a Gold Glover with 20-homer power who still has three years of club control left. Arias? He’s the best prospect in the American League. Gonzales? He’s not on Arias’ level, yet he might be Boston’s best pure hitting prospect.

The Brewers held their championship parade on Friday.

Jay Jaffe looks at the most dominating postseason runs by World Series champs.

The Dodgers are still the odds-on favorites to win it all in 2027.

Why the Brewers can repeat next year.

World Series TV ratings were fairly strong for having small markets, and it may be due to MLB scheduling.

14 more players became free agents after options were declined.

David Schoenfield at ESPN guesses where top free agents will land.

Mike Axisa at CBS Sports ranks the top 50 free agents.

Only four teams now have yet to win a title, which has the best chance?

The Astros hire former Cardinals executive Randy Flores as their new GM.

Which pitchers are lighting up the metrics in the Arizona Fall League?

Jorge Posada says he doesn’t feel welcome by the Yankees.

An appeals court revokes a pardon for convicted sex offender Wander Franco.

Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark will step down in January.

Inside the NBA host Ernie Johnson announces this season will be his last.

More visitors came to Kansas City for the World Cup than expected, but they spent slightly less than projected.

Dozens of people protest the “Liberty Bibberty” ads at Liberty Mutual’s headquarters.

The creepy science behind sleep paralysis ‘demons’.

Your song of the day is Eric Clapton with She’s Waiting.

Hello everyone and happy Halloween!

As we get the weekend started, here’s what you need to know from the baseball world.

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, the Mariners have reportedly hired CJ Gillman to be their new hitting coach (despite not having a manager yet).
• Michael Arroyo underwent an elbow scope procedure and is expected to return to action in April 2027.
• Ryan Blake provided an early look at the 2027 projections for the Mariners ahead of the coming offseason.
• Kate Preusser gave a helpful breakdown of important offseason dates to remember.
• Washington State University unveiled a new John Olerud statue at their baseball field. I think perhaps they could have captured his likeness a bit more favorably.
• Christine Wren, a Seattle native and the first-ever full time female baseball umpire, died at the age of 78.

Around the league…

• The Astros have hired Cardinals assistant general manager Randy Flores to serve as their new GM.
• The Seibu Lions announced that they will post right-hander Kaima Taira to Major League Baseball.
• Several teams and players declined and exercised options for the 2027 season. Check out the full list here.
• The Diamondbacks are looking for controllable starting pitching this winter, which may or may not be tied to their ask for second baseman Ketel Marte.
• Matthew Gross at Over The Monster expressed frustration that we have to go into this offseason with such pessimism thanks to the looming lockout.

The World Series is over, and the hot stove is about to be cranked up.

As previously discussed, the Colorado Rockies have plenty to sort through on their 40-man roster. With a potential lockout looming, they might have less than a month to conduct much of their offseason business.

Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes were active last offseason, acquiring players such as TJ Rumfield and Brennan Bernardino. At the trade deadline, they added Mason Adams, Mark Manfredi, Nick Frasso and Connor Norby, among others.

DePodesta has indicated that the front office intends to approach this offseason aggressively. This time, they’ll enter November with their staff in place and a full year of organizational evaluations behind them.

Hunter Goodman and Jake McCarthy have received plenty of national attention as trade candidates. Both could bring back significant talent, but neither ranks particularly high among the players I expect Colorado to move.

Trade value and trade likelihood aren’t necessarily the same thing.

The trade board

Trade Outlook	Players
Most likely to be moved	Zac Veen, Jordan Beck, Willi Castro, Adael Amador, Jimmy Herget, Brennan Bernardino, Juan Mejía
Possible	Jake McCarthy, Jaden Hill, Zach Agnos
Unlikely	Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Connor Norby, Ezequiel Tovar, Nick Frasso, Mark Manfredi, Ryan Feltner, Tanner Gordon, Sean Sullivan
Staying put	Kyle Karros, Cole Carrigg, TJ Rumfield, Chase Dollander, Mason Adams, Gabriel Hughes

These are my predictions for players who have reached the majors, not reports of player availability. I don’t expect everyone in the top group to be traded. Prospects are discussed separately below.

What’s a 40-home-run catcher worth?

Hunter Goodman followed a 31-homer season in 2025 with 41 in 2026, giving Colorado a two-time All-Star catcher under team control through 2029.

But what’s he worth?

Oakland received five players, including Atlanta’s top prospect Kyle Muller, in the three-team trade that sent Sean Murphy to the Braves in December 2022. Kansas City received pitchers Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek when it traded Freddy Fermin to San Diego in 2025.

Murphy was a Gold Glove winner with an established offensive track record, while Fermin’s appeal leaned more heavily on defense. Both offered more value behind the plate than Goodman has demonstrated, but neither came close to matching his offensive production.

Finding a comparable offseason trade involving a 40-home-run hitter is even more difficult. The most recent example I could find was Giancarlo Stanton, who hit 59 home runs in 2017 before being traded to the Yankees that winter. His enormous contract and no-trade clause, however, made that a very different transaction.

For Goodman, I’d expect Colorado to demand an established, controllable starting pitcher with top-of-the-rotation potential and additional young talent. An entirely prospect-based package would need to be exceptional.

Trading Goodman would remove Colorado’s most dangerous power hitter with no obvious replacement behind the plate or in the lineup.

His production might simply be more valuable in Colorado than anything another organization is willing to surrender. For that reason, I don’t expect Goodman to be traded this offseason.

More valuable in Colorado?

Jake McCarthy hit .291/.334/.475 with 15 home runs and 32 stolen bases in 2026. He’s affordable, athletic and capable of playing all three outfield positions, although his range in center and throwing arm present limitations.

Would another team view him as an everyday outfielder who can hit near the top of the lineup, or a fourth outfielder better suited to the bench?

Colorado saw the former for much of 2026. But his stronger numbers at Coors Field and defensive limitations could affect his value elsewhere.

Mickey Moniak presents a similar question. He improved from -8 Outs Above Average in 2025 to roughly average defensively in 2026 while continuing to provide left-handed power.

His .195/.225/.379 second half raises questions about how much of that offense he’d reproduce elsewhere. Colorado also signed him to a two-year extension in August.

I’d listen on both, but I suspect Colorado’s asking price would be higher than most teams are willing to pay.

Something’s gotta give

Colorado has more infielders than obvious places to play them.

Willi Castro hit .260/.331/.417 with 15 home runs in 2026, offering versatility and insurance behind Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop.

Adael Amador, primarily a second baseman, finished strong with a .277/.362/.482 line in 27 major-league games.

Then there’s Connor Norby.

Acquired in the Victor Vodnik trade, Norby hit .302/.387/.457 in 40 games with Colorado. His right-handed bat and ability to play first, second and third give the Rockies more options than Amador does. I’d be surprised if DePodesta and Byrnes moved Norby before getting a longer look.

Tovar’s age, contract and defensive ability also make a trade unlikely despite his difficult offensive season.

That leaves Castro and Amador.

Of the two, Amador seems more expendable. Castro might have the broader market. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them is moved this offseason.

A change of scenery

Zac Veen and Jordan Beck were once among Colorado’s most promising prospects. Neither has established himself in the majors.

Veen earned Pacific Coast League MVP honors after hitting .327/.402/.635 with 24 home runs at Triple-A, although consistent contact remains a concern. With Colorado’s crowded outfield, his resurgence might present an opportunity to trade him while his value is rising.

Beck’s season was considerably less encouraging. After hitting 16 home runs with 19 stolen bases in 2025, he managed just one homer and a .552 OPS in 2026.

But former top prospects can retain trade value. Miami dealt JJ Bleday to Oakland for A.J. Puk in 2023, while Atlanta acquired Chris Sale and cash from Boston for Vaughn Grissom.

Neither is a direct comparison, but both demonstrate that struggling young hitters can still interest other organizations.

Veen might be the more attractive trade piece, while Beck could benefit more from a fresh opportunity. There’s a good chance one of them is playing elsewhere in 2027.

Plenty of bullpen options

Colorado needs pitching, but that doesn’t mean every pitcher should be retained.

Brennan Bernardino posted a 2.81 ERA in 64 innings in 2026. He’s left-handed, inexpensive and under team control through 2029. At 34, he could be more valuable to a contender seeking immediate bullpen help.

Jimmy Herget is a tougher sell. The 33-year-old struggled to a 5.70 ERA after posting a 2.48 mark over 83.1 innings in 2025.

Juan Mejía and Jaden Hill present another decision. Both pitchers are 26 and averaged around 97 mph with their fastballs in 2026, but finished with ERAs above 5.00. Both struggled with walks but showed promise with their secondary pitches.

Mejía posted a 3.96 ERA in 2025, and Colorado has seen more of him in the majors, making him my more likely trade candidate.

Zach Agnos covered 91 innings in 2026, although his 5.93 ERA and limited strikeout production make a significant return difficult to envision.

Ryan Feltner, Tanner Gordon and Sean Sullivan also seem unlikely to draw much trade interest following disappointing 2026 seasons. All three have starting potential, although their long-term roles could ultimately be in the bullpen.

Meanwhile, Nick Frasso and Mark Manfredi were acquired at the deadline, making another immediate trade seem unlikely. Manfredi came over in the Antonio Senzatela deal, while Frasso and Landyn Vidourek were acquired for Seth Halvorsen.

Halvorsen hadn’t consistently produced strong results, but his exceptional fastball was enough to attract a worthwhile return. It’s a reminder that potential can carry real trade value, even when the results haven’t followed.

With several bullpen options available, I expect Colorado to move an arm or two this offseason.

What about the prospects?

Charlie Condon (No. 2 PuRP) is perhaps the most intriguing name.

The former No. 3 overall pick hit .273/.390/.514 with 27 home runs and 98 RBI at Albuquerque, earning the Pacific Coast League’s Top MLB Prospect award. He’s No. 56 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list.

With TJ Rumfield established at first base and questions about Condon’s defensive home, Colorado could consider using his power to acquire pitching. It would take a substantial return, but Condon could headline such a deal.

Sterlin Thompson (No. 16 PuRP) offers another possibility after posting a .475 on-base percentage and 1.005 OPS at Triple-A before reaching the majors. His approach at the plate could make him attractive as part of a larger trade.

Jared Thomas (No. 8 PuRP) and Jack O’Dowd (HM PuRP) are participating in the Arizona Fall League, where O’Dowd has impressed. Both could draw interest from teams looking for young offensive talent.

Further down the system, Colorado has several intriguing young position-player prospects, including Roldy Brito (No. 3 PuRP), Cristian Arguelles (No. 5 PuRP) and Wilder Dalis (No. 10 PuRP). Brito is ranked No. 52 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list, and any of the three could be included as part of a larger trade package.

I’d be far more surprised to see the Rockies move Ethan Holliday (No. 1 PuRP) or Tyler Bell (No. 4 PuRP). Ranked No. 23 and No. 62, respectively, on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100, both are recovering from injuries.

As a general rule, I’m skeptical that DePodesta and Byrnes would trade recent draft picks before seeing a full professional season. I also don’t expect Colorado to trade from its minor-league starting pitching depth, including Logan Reddemann (No. 9 PuRP), Brody Brecht (No. 14 PuRP), Jackson Cox (No. 11 PuRP), Jack Mahoney (No. 15 PuRP), and J.B. Middleton (No. 22 PuRP).

I’m assuming most of Colorado’s trades this offseason will be aimed at acquiring pitching.

Staying put

Kyle Karros, Cole Carrigg and TJ Rumfield are young, controllable players who appear to fit Colorado’s longer-term plans.

Rumfield hit .300/.390/.453 over 155 games in 2026 and is a Gold Glove finalist at first base. Carrigg posted an .818 OPS with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 93 games, while Karros paired excellent third-base defense with 13 homers and a .347 on-base percentage.

There’s also little reason to trade Chase Dollander, Mason Adams or Gabriel Hughes.

Dollander averaged 98.9 mph with his fastball in 2026 and posted a 3.89 ERA over 44 innings. Adams recorded 31 strikeouts in 29 innings while working with a six-pitch mix. Hughes struggled to a 6.33 ERA, but his 3.92 expected ERA and ability to limit hard contact offer reasons for optimism.

All three are young, controllable starting pitchers with encouraging underlying numbers. Given Colorado’s need for rotation help, I’d expect the Rockies to continue developing them rather than entertain moving any of them.

Who’s actually going?

I expect the Rockies to be active over the next month with trades involving their outfield, infield or bullpen depth.

And knowing how DePodesta and Byrnes have operated so far, I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull off a deal or two that nobody saw coming.

With December 1 approaching, there is no time to waste.

So, who would you move, who would you keep, and where have I gotten it completely wrong?

---

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks! 

Things were looking pretty bleak for Daniel Duarte in the spring of 2024. He battled his way onto the Minnesota Twins roster before an elbow injury sidelined him for the rest of ’24 and all of 2025.

Whether playing for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic or being a surprisingly good piece of the New York Mets bullpen, Duarte’s career rebounded nicely in 2026.

Duarte signed a minor league deal with the Mets in the winter, then made two appearances with Mexico in the WBC, including a shutdown inning against Team USA. Duarte walked Bobby Witt Jr., then retired superstars Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, and Kyle Schwarber in order.

The right-hander proved his WBC performance wasn’t a fluke, posting his best season in the big leagues by far. He got the call to the Mets after 12 solid appearances for Triple-A Syracuse to start the season. He then rattled off seven consecutive scoreless appearances for New York. Duarte also had a separate streak of nine straight scoreless appearances, remaining effective for most of the summer when he got his chances with the big-league club.

Duarte posted a career high in strikeout rate (26.8%), hard-hit rate (24.3%), and xERA (2.88). His year ended with a hamstring injury in September, long after the Mets’ season had gone down the drain. Still, his was somewhat of a bright spot in an otherwise disastrous year. Especially considering he wasn’t a big part of the team’s plans heading into the season.

Thanks to his ‘26 season, Duarte has likely flipped that script and should be a part of the team’s bullpen picture in 2027.

With free agency underway, speculation surrounding ace left-hander Tarik Skubal will morph into actual negotiations, as a handful of teams look to land him.

In addition to the Mets and Dodgers, there are a bunch of other teams who have a need for Skubal and a potential willingness to spend what it takes to get him.

The Angels, finally close to being free of meddling owner Arte Moreno, will have new owner Stan Kroenke (and his estimated $27.6 billion net worth) officially taking over in early 2027, pending MLB approval. While the Angels could conceivably go after Skubal, it's fair to wonder how open he would be to signing there given the ownership transition, unsettled situations at GM and manager, and the fact that they haven't had a winning season since 2015. 

The Cubs have a need and ownership with deep pockets, but also must rebuild almost their entire starting rotation -- with Clay Holmes, Matthew Boyd, Kevin Gausman, and Shota Imanaga all free agents. Given how much pitching they need to add, would they be comfortable spending big on Skubal?

The upstart White Sox could also make sense for Skubal, but the biggest free agent contract they've ever given out is the five-year, $75 million deal they signed Andrew Benintendi to in 2023. So Chicago inking Skubal would relatively shocking.

Skubal's first team, the Tigers, are obviously a fit. But they lowballed him when it came to extension offers before he was traded. 

The Yankees could always go nuts and add another ace to their elite rotation, but that seems unlikely given their current deals to starting pitchers Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodon, as well as other big contracts on the books for Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. Hal Steinbrenner's recent comments about being in favor of a salary cap should also be considered here.

Could the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Padres try for Skubal? Maybe. But this really does seem like something that could come down to the Mets and Dodgers.

While the Dodgers are swimming in cash, owner Mark Walterhas been accused of insurance fraud, recently sold his majority stake in the Lakers, and has been attempting to sell the Sparks. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is loaded with starting pitching options and could be reluctant to hand a megadeal to Skubal -- even if Walter's finances don't become a major issue.

With all that to consider, how seriously should the Mets pursue Skubal? Here are the pros and cons...

PROS

Skubal is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, having posted a 2.47 ERA (2.42 FIP) and 0.92 WHIP with 757 strikeouts in 626.1 innings (a strikeout rate of 10.9 per nine) in 103 starts since 2023, which was his age-26 season.

For the Tigers and Dodgers in 2026, Skubal had a 2.72 ERA (2.51 FIP) and 0.96 WHIP while fanning 186 batters in 158.2 innings over 26 starts.

Skubal's arsenal is electric, with him primarily featuring a four-seam fastball that averaged 96.8 mph this past season, as well as a dominant changeup, sinker, and slider.

In 2026, Skubal's stuff unsurprisingly rated near the top of the league, with his overall pitching run value in the 97th percentile. When it comes to how hitters performed against each pitch, none of Skubal's offerings resulted in a slugging percentage higher than .373 (or an xSLG higher than .372). Meanwhile, his vaunted changeup had an absurd whiff percentage of 46.9. 

Looking at Skubal's other metrics, literally all of them except for extension were between well above average and elite this past season, including his xERA, average exit velocity against, chase percentage, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and walk percentage -- which was in the 99th percentile. While Skubal is overpowering, he also has elite command, posting BB/9 rates of 1.6 or lower each of the last four seasons. 

When it comes to fit, the Mets have a glaring need for Skubal or another pitcher who is a legitimate ace. But Skubal is the only true ace who is available. Putting him atop a rotation that should also include Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, and perhaps another external addition, would be a game-changer for New York. 

Looking elsewhere on the free agent market for other potential big-ticket additions, there really aren't many. Starting pitchers Michael King and Clay Holmes could be pricey in terms of average annual value, but won't get the kind of lengthy deal Skubal could command. Teruaki Sato, who is being posted by his Japanese club, could get a relatively big deal. But even if the Mets sign Skubal, they would theoretically be able to add Sato and/or another legitimate starting pitcher. So there's no reason to be hesitant. 

While the Mets already have roughly $281 million committed to the payroll for the 2027 season (if Bo Bichette opts in), they are going to get serious relief after next season, with Sean Manaea ($22 million), Jorge Polanco ($20 million), and Kodai Senga ($15 million) coming off the books. Also off the books will be the $6 million the club is still paying Luke Weaver for 2027 following his trade to the Pirates. Then, ahead of the 2029 season, the Mets have roughly $90 million set to come off, reducing their overall obligations to around $106 million. 

Given the coming payroll relief and the influx of young, relatively inexpensive players (including McLean, Scott, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, and Zac Thornton), the Mets are in strong position to absorb the kind of massive payroll obligation Skubal's contract will be. 

There's also the fact that David Stearns seems to be in a make-or-break offseason, and could certainly use a bold and potentially tenure-defining move over the next few months -- even if it might come with some prodding from owner Steve Cohen.

CONS

The biggest concern when it comes to a megadeal for Skubal or any other pitcher revolves around health.

Skubal's 2026 campaign was briefly interrupted by NanoScope surgery on his pitching elbow that kept him out of action from April 30 through June 13. But he continued to be dominant upon his return. After having a 2.70 ERA (2.11 FIP) over his first seven starts, Skubal had a 2.73 ERA (2.66 FIP) in the 19 starts he made post-surgery, with 10 of them coming after he was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline.

While Skubal seems to be out of the woods, he has had serious elbow issues in the past. Skubal had Tommy John surgery while in college in 2017 and underwent flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022. If he eventually needs to have a second Tommy John surgery, it's fair to wonder what kind of pitcher he would be on the other side of it. 

Even if Skubal avoids a catastrophic injury during the length of his next contract, he'll be facing an uphill battle to live up to it simply because of the amount of long-term deals for starting pitchers that have gone haywire. 

For every long-term, big-money deal to a pitcher 29 or older that works out (Max Scherzer's seven-year deal with the Nationals looks incredible in retrospect, and the Yankees' deal for Max Fried is aging well), you can point to a whole bunch that didn't or currently aren't (Patrick Corbin, Jacob deGrom, Jordan Zimmermann, Felix Hernandez, Corbin Burnes).

Putting Skubal's potential health and performance to the side for a second, it's probably generally wise to avoid deals for starting pitchers that could go as high as his -- an eight-year deal for around $350 million wouldn't be surprising. 

There's also the pending expiration of the CBA and expected lockout to consider. But there are two reasons why that shouldn't be as big of a deal as some are making it. For one, it's hard to believe the players will bend on a salary cap. Even if they do, any cap would take years to implement, which means it would somewhat disingenuous for any team to cite labor uncertainty as a reason for not pursuing Skubal or other players.  

VERDICT

Sign him.

Ahead of his age-30 season, it feels probable that Skubal's contract will not soar into the stratosphere when it comes to years. As is noted above, an eight-year deal would be reasonable and end when Skubal is 37 years old. Maybe the Mets could go even higher with the average annual value in order to get it down to six or seven years, which would obviously be more in line with Stearns' philosophy -- even if it would still require him to go outside his comfort zone.

Either way, the stars seem to be aligning for the Mets to make a strong push for Skubal. They need to close the deal. 

No one really asked me, but MLB allegedly polled baseball fans about a salary cap. They were apparently all for it. I’m gonna need to see their voting sample, but in the meantime I’m curious about who on the owners’ side is supporting this. The players, of course, don’t want this. But since it’s the offseason now and we have lots of time to talk about it, I started asking myself which of the owners really wants this and where it’s coming from.

Do you think the Yankees or Dodgers really want a cap, or even remotely care? Ten years ago, the Yankees made a profit on 400 million dollars. I’m curious where they are now if the pre-covid-bucks-era total was so high. The Dodgers clearly don’t care. I’m not sure the Braves are interested either way. I think the Braves’ mindset on salaries is well known at this point.

Looking near the bottom of the ledger, do the Rays really need a cap and floor? They’re already over there counting cards on a level that I don’t want anything to do with them on transactions. The Brewers pretty well have their core almost locked in. The Athletics of not Oakland or Sacramento or Las Vegas ought to have higher income streams soon. Are we flipping everything upside down for the likes of Angels and Rockies?

Does it even make sense to have a floor? If you’re building the farm successfully your going to have cheap talent for three to five years at least. The salary will stay muted for a while, because of baseball antiquated process of underpaying young players while overpaying the older ones. So do we block prospects so you can pay 25 million a year on an aging second baseman?

Speaking of overpaying some infielders, Mets owner Steve Cohen isn’t hurting. I did see a quote from him, saying that his thoughts are just to do what the other owners want to do and figure out 2028 from there. Which other owners is he talking about?

The only this makes sense is that the owners and Rob Manfred wants to standardize the costs and revenues of MLB ownership. If you are looking to purchase a company, one of the first questions is what will it cost to run and what kind of profits they can bring in. Manfred is in the process of bringing teams’ TV contract into his house. They’ve already lined up ESPN, Netflix, and the other major streaming outlets as partners. The next step is to standardize the costs, which are chiefly labor and stadium construction upkeep. They have been very successful getting local governments to chip on stadiums (stadia?), so check that box. Next would be forcing player salaries into a tight band, so they can know those costs are.

MLB is looking to add two new franchises. Also, some current owners may be looking to cash in on the high valuations. And even if they don’t sell, they may be able to report a higher number to banks and be able to borrow money against the value of the team. I’m not saying they are doing that now, but they do it in a lot of other industries.

Sorry we’re 500 plus words into this and I’ve been asking questions to the universe but not you all. So which owners really want a salary cap? I just know I’d be cooler if they didn’t. Or maybe they don’t really want it and are floating this as leverage to get other things like more playoff games that they barely have to pay the players to get.

The baseball calendar doesn’t let you enjoy much time off after the final out in the World Series is recorded, but after coming up just short of their first World Series title, the Rays have a lot of work to do to shore up their starting rotation.

Are they breaking up the band?

Nick Martinez and Freddy Peralta are headed to free agency. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden projects Martinez will get two years, $48 million. It’s unclear whether the Rays are interested in signing a 36 year old to that kind of deal, but there should be mutual interest in a reunion.

Peralta seems to be out of the Rays price range, especially after an incredible finish to the season that saw him win AL Pitcher of the Month for September and ALCS MVP. He’s expected to sign for nine figures over several years, and it would take the largest free agent contract in franchise history to secure his services. Bowden projects five years, $140 million for Fastball Freddy.

Starters expected to return are Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Griffin Jax, and Ian Seymour. That’s enough to field a five-man rotation, but the depth behind it is suspect. And that’s assuming all five are back.

Rasmussen is entering the final year of his contract extension, which will see him earn $20 million. History tells us the Rays will explore trading Rasmussen this offseason. Another extension is possible, but you have to imagine it would be a hefty one, with the right-hander being one year away from his first foray into free agency.

Jax and McClanahan are also entering their last year of team control. Jax successfully converted to starting this season, and McClanahan pitched 118 innings after not appearing in a game since 2023. Both have some trade value, but modest extensions could be in the cards as well.

I can’t imagine Rays go into 2027 with all three unless they are on new contracts.

Pepiot and Seymour both have multiple seasons left and are strong candidates to return. Pepiot missed the entire season however, and even if he starts the year healthy, there’s no guarantee he throws more than 150 innings.

Steven Matz is under contract for one more season and could be a candidate to return to the rotation, but he seems better suited for the bullpen at this point.

Who is on the farm?

Brody Hopkins, Ty Johnson, and Joe Boyle all started the year in AAA Durham as starters, but all saw significant time in the bullpen this season, with varying levels of success. It’s unclear what the Rays see for them in the future, but their immediate opportunities at the Major League level seem limited to the pen. The other starters from Durham are not seen as serious big league prospects, at least not yet.

The next closest starting pitching prospect with an MLB outlook is probably Santiago Suarez, who had a 4.50 ERA in 126 innings at AA this year. Jackson Baumeister should also be up in AAA to start the 2027 season, but seems far away from making an impact on the big league rotation.

The farm is not as well stocked in pitching as it seemed a year ago. Michael Forret, who had put together a strong season in AAA this year, was sent back to Baltimore as part of the Tyler Wells trade.

Who can the Rays get?

It’s safe to assume the Rays will spend somewhere around $20-30 million on free agent pitchers, like they did last offseason with Martinez and Matz.

They could bring Martinez back, or look at other veteran starters on the market like Dustin May, Jack Flaherty, or Clay Holmes.

Jeffrey Springs is a free agent after a disappointing season with the Athletics, but the Rays might see him as another swing man or spot starter similar to Matz. Maybe they can recapture the magic he found during his first stint with the team.

If they wanted to make a bigger splash for one starter on a short-term deal, 35-year-old Robbie Ray is available, but it could cost them upwards of $25 million for one season. That would seem to be a gamble, as Ray posted the worst strikeout and walk rates of any full season of his career.

Spending any more than that should trigger serious discussions about what it would take to resign Freddy Peralta, a well-respected vet that clearly loved both his short time with the Rays, and working with pitching coach Kyle Snyder. If Patrick Zalupski wants to show that these are not your father’s Rays, that would be a great way to do it.

With the lockout looming, the Rays may need to act quick to solve this problem.