Braves Minor League Recap: Tate Southisene breaks out, Rowdy Tellez continues homer streak

TAMPA, FL - MARCH 21: Tate Southisene #19 of the Atlanta Braves runs to first during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field on Saturday, March 21, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

(54-39) Memphis Redbirds 2, (46-45) Gwinnett Stripers 7

  • Patrick Clohisy, CF: 4-for-5, RBI, R, SB, .275/.356/.465
  • Rowdy Tellez, 1B: 2-for-3, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, R, .265/.376/.510
  • Cal Conley, 2B: 2-for-2, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB, .278/.326/.443
  • Drue Hackenberg, SP: 5IP 1H 1ER 2BB 4K, 4.88 ERA
  • Connor Thomas, RP: 1IP 0H 0R 0BB 2K, 1.09 ERA

Box Score

The Stripers extended their winning streak to four games after a well fought game featuring strong pitching and the long ball. Let’s take a look at how the Stripers got it done.

Drue Hackenberg got the start and was extremely strong – allowing just a single hit over five innings of work. His one blemish came in the fourth inning when Hackenberg allowed back-to-back walks before allowing a sacrifice fly to score. Outside of that, Drue was completely in control. Drue featured his two-seam, four-seam, curveball, changeup, while sprinkling in his cutter. After a rough 2025, Drue hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in a single start and has done a great job of re-establishing his value in the Braves pitching depth chart. After five strong innings the Stripers turned to Elieser Hernández (2IP 0H 0R 0BB 3K) who was just as strong – getting through two perfect innings as he leaned heavily on his four-seam and cutter. Following Elieser was Connor Thomas who was also absolutely fantastic as he absolutely pounded the zone with 9 strikes on 10 pitches while recording two strikeouts. Closing out the game, with the game pretty firmly in hand, was Anthony Molina (1IP 2H 1ER 0BB 1K) who allowed a run to score while inducing a double play.

Offensively, the recipe for success was a lot like the last game as Patrick Clohisy and Rowdy Tellez continued to show out. Fast forwarding to the fourth inning, the Stripers found themselves down 1-0, before loading the bases when Patrick Clohisy tied the game with an RBI single. Two batters later Rowdy Tellez drove in two with a two RBI single. One inning later, Cal Conley connected on his second home run of the seasons driving in Aaron Schunk and DaShawn Keirsey Jr., extending the Stripers lead to 6-1. One inning later it was once again Rowdy Tellez who drove in the last run of the game for the Stripers with this absolute bomb of a home run coming in at 110.4 MPH and going 430’ – extending his streak to three straight games with a home run.

(32-55) Birmingham Barons 4, (40-42) Columbus Clingstones 7

  • Jordan Groshans, 3B: 2-for-4, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, .266/.345/.549
  • Archer Brookman, C: 1-for-3, HR, 2 RBI, R, .248/.344/.400
  • Luke Waddell, SS: 1-for-3, 2 R, RBI, .208/.314/.321
  • Cedric de Grandpre, SP: 6IP 3H 1ER 0BB 7K, 4.12 ERA
  • Luis Vargas, RP: 1.2IP 0H 0R 1BB 3K, 4.65 ERA

Box Score

The suddenly surging Columbus Clingstones picked up their seventh win in their last 10 games with another strong starting pitching performance, and timely hitting.

Cedric de Grandpre got the start for the Clingstones and was absolutely dynamic – striking out seven across six innings of work. Cedric continued to utilize his four-seam/two-seam/cutter fastball repertoire to great success as he never really ran into much trouble in the start. His only blemish cam in the third inning when he allowed a run scoring single with two outs. After that, Cedric would retire the next ten hitters to get the Clingstones through six innings. He would be replaced by Braden Scott (0.1IP 4H 3ER 0BB 1K), making his Clingstones debut, and he struggled – allowing back-to-back singles before eventually surrendering a three run home run and another single. He would be replaced by Luis Vargas (1.2IP 0H 0R 1BB 3K) who was the opposite, immediately retiring the first two batters he saw to end the threat, before striking out the side in his next inning of work. Isaac Gallegos (1IP 0H 0R 0BB 1K) picked up his first save of the season for the Clingstones with a perfect ninth.

Offensively, it was Jordan Groshans who got the fun started for the Clingstones very early on – hitting a two run home run in the first.

This was Jordan’s 17th home run of the season which has been one of the best of his career, and has been an absolutely fantastic signing for the organization. Logan Braunschweig would drive in the third run of the game for the Clingstones in the fourth inning with an RBI single that drove in Will Verdung to extend the Clingstones lead to 3-1. They would tack on an additional three runs in the fifth inning highlighted by an Archer Brookman two run home run. The final run of the game for the Clingstones came in the seventh inning with a Drew Compton RBI single that drove in Luke Waddell.

As a team the Clingstones went 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position, stranding seven on base.

(42-42) Rome Emperors 7, (41-44) Hudson Valley Renegades 4

  • Tate Southisene, SS: 3-for-5, 3B, 2 RBI, 2 R, .234/.375/.423
  • Eric Hartman, CF: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI, .281/.359/.543
  • Owen Carey, LF: 2-for-5, 2B, 3 RBI, R, .259/.327/.456
  • Dallas Macias, RF: 1-for-2, RBI, R, 2 BB, .156/.200/.469
  • Aiven Cabral, SP: 5IP 2H 0R 0BB 5K, 0.67 ERA

Box Score

The Aiven Cabral show continued, while Tate Southisene got it going offensively in a thrilling victory for the Rome Emperors.

Cabral did what he has done all year, absolutely pounding the zone with his pitch mix and allowing just two hits across five innings, while striking out five. Outside of a third inning double Aiven was in complete control of the game. He was efficient as he needed just 63 pitches to get through his outing. On the season Aiven has now made 15 appearances across two levels, and his ERA is now a ridiculous 1.88 on the season, with a WHIP of 0.99. Even without a standout pitch, he lives in the zone and induces a ton of weak contact with all three of his pitches. He was replaced by Tyler Schoff (1.1IP 3H 4ER 3BB 0K) who struggled in his fourth appearance for the Emperors. Brody Fowler (1.2IP 0H 0R 2BB 4K) , the Braves 17th round pick from 2025, had one of his best outings of his careers – striking out four across 1.2 innings of work. Justin Long (1IP 0H 0R 0BB 1K) picked up his third save of the season with a perfect inning of work.

The fun got started early for the Emperors as John Gil walked, and stole his 38th base of the season, before Owen Carey connected on his sixth home run of the season – giving the Emperors a 2-0 lead.

They would be held scoreless until the seventh inning when Dallas Macias drove in Dixon Williams to push the Emperors lead to two runs, at 3-1. One inning later, the Emperors found themselves down and it was once again Owen Carey that came up with the big hit – this time a run scoring single that drove in Tate Southisene, to tie the game at 4-4. One inning later it was Tate Southisene’s time to shine as he drove in two on his second triple since joining the Rome Emperors.

After John Gil struck out, Eric Hartman drove in Tate on a laser double to right field to extend the lead to 7-4.

(49-36) Hickory Crawdads 7, (48-39) Augusta GreenJackets 0

  • Tanner Smith, C: 1-for-3, BB, .258/.324/.495
  • Juan Mateo, 2B: 1-for-4, .261/.333/.353
  • Luis Guanipa, CF: 0-for-4, .303/.360/.459
  • Conor Essenburg, RF: 1-for-3, BB, .254/.398/.457
  • Kendy Richard, SP: 4IP 4H 3ER 1BB 2K, 6.36 ERA

Box Score

The GreenJackets fell, running into the buzzsaw that is Evan Siary, in a shutout loss to the Crawdads.

Kendy Richard got the start for the GreenJackets and was OK, allowing three earned runs across four innings of work while giving up a pair of home runs. Kendy has an up-and-down season, finding more success coming out of the bullpen, but overall did enough to keep the GreenJackets in the game. He was replaced by Luis Arestigueta (3.2IP 3H 3ER 2BB 0K) who has had a very odd 2026. After having strong success to start his career, Luis has found himself moving between Augusta and the FCL Braves as he’s struggled to generate whiffs and consistently find the zone. To his credit, Luis did allow just three earned runs while providing some length so it was a step in the right direction but it still has been a rough 2026 in a year he had some loftier expectations. Cristobal Abreu (1.1IP 2H 1ER 0BB 1K) worked the final stretch of the game and allowed one earned run over his inning+ of work.

Offensively it was a complete struggle as the GreenJackets had just two opportunities with runners in scoring position the entire game, to which they unfortunately went 0-for-2. The top four of the lineup (Guanipa, Essenburg, Lodise, Miller) went a combined 0-for-15, with Essenburg drawing a walk, but the totality of the group striking out seven times. The pitching hero from two games ago, shortstop Joe Olsavsky, was the only hitter to not strike out, as he and Tanner Smith were the only two players to reach base twice.

Legends at the Astrodome: 1986 All Star Game: Dale Murphy

SAN DIEGO, CA - CIRCA 1982: Dale Murphy #3 of the Atlanta Braves bats against the San Diego Padres during an Major League Baseball game circa 1982 at Jack Murphy Stadium in San Diego, California. Murphy played for the Braves from 1976-90. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images) | Getty Images

With All-Star festivities kicking into high gear, we continue our series featuring 2x MVP Dale Murphy.  Murphy would play 15 seasons for the Braves, with half of those resulting in All-Star Game selections.     

In the 80’s only one player hit more home runs than Dale, that being Mike Schmidt.    Dale Murphy joins us exclusively at The Crawfish Boxes.    

Q:  It was almost a given back in that era that you’d be selected by the fans.  You appeared in 7 All Star games in the 1980’s.  What do you remember about that 1986 game?

A:  What’s funny is that for that particular year and game at the Astrodome, my stats weren’t really that good so I kind of felt weird about starting that game.     But you mentioned the fans, they voted me in as a starter.  It was always an honor.    

Q:  You got to face Roger Clemens, who was appearing in his first All-Star Game and was in the zone.  What do you remember about that confrontation? 

A:  I only saw one pitch from Clemens as I remember, and I grounded out to short.     I had two at bats that night, and then Chili Davis came in for me.  

My second at bat was against Higuera.  I actually told Whitey Herzog that I was good with just the one at bat, but he kept me in.   

Q:  Historically though, you had some big games in the Dome.  That night was the exception to the rule.  Did you like playing at the Astrodome?

A:       I’m not sure I could say I ever fully enjoyed playing in the Astrodome though (laughs).    Playing there was always tough and it was a credit to those Astros teams.    Facing the likes of Nolan, Scott and J.R. it didn’t get tougher than that in the mid-eighties.  

Plus, the dome had a problem with the ceiling.    If you weren’t careful, it would be hard to pick up a fly ball in the outfield.    

Q:  What was the coolest thing about that night?    

A:  Far and away getting to meet at the time Vice President Bush before the game.   He came through the club house and all of us had a chance to speak to him.  That was really special.    

Q:  What’s life like for you now?

A:  I’m no longer chasing fly balls; I’m chasing down my grandkids here in Atlanta.    (laughs)

Astros Make Sixteen Selections on Day Two

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 11: MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred speaks on stage during the 2026 MLB Draft at Pennsylvania Convention Center on July 11, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images

On Day Two of the draft, the Astros made sixteen selections. Below is some information on the picks.

You can see all the picks here: https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker

On Day Two of the draft, the Astros made sixteen selections. They started the day going back to back to back pitchers in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Gavin Eddy was the Astros 5th rounder and he had a 2.87 ERA this season for Cal while pumping mid 90s heaters and a strong breaking ball. In the 6th they took Michael Addari out of Illinois State. He posted a 2.27 ERA with 73 K over 67.1 innings. The 7th round selection was Bryan Carney out of University of Olivet. He was dominant there posting a 1.35 ERA with 122 strikeouts over 73.1 innings. The thing that stood out about all three of these selections is all of them were at least 6-5 and had above average extension, a trait the Astros clearly value.

The Astros went with a couple of position players with their next picks selecting Aaron Piasecki in the 8th and Ryan Pruitt in the 9th. Piasecki was great for Troy hitting .337 with 10 home runs and elite contact rates. Pruitt, out of South Florida, appears to be another prospects with speed and contact skills. They ended the first half of the draft getting right-hander Taz Butler out of Kansas State.

In the 11th round, the Astros took a swing on a junior college pitcher Peyton Fiene out of Odessa Junior College. He has a big time arm touching 96 mph while also adding three solid off-speed pitches. He is only 20 years old and has a huge ceiling. In the 12th they got an outfielder in Owen Nowak, who was dominant for Middle Tennessee State hitting .316 with a ridiculous 36 walks to just 11 strikeouts over 57 games.

The Astros took a big swing in the 13th round selecting shortstop Jack Beck out of Columbia Central HS in Tennessee. He had a breakout combine where he showed off his plus raw power connecting on 21 balls over 100 mph (113 mph max) and hitting the longest home run at 466 feet. He has huge upside. In the 14th round they took a right-hander in Brady Thomas who is 6-5 and hit and pitched for Jacksonville State.

They took another top prep prospect in the 15th in James Tronstein who also possesses excellent tools, though he might be a fall back option in case the other don’t sign as he has a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. The Astros took their first catcher in the 16th round, though he played right field too, in Rashawn Galloway. He has some monster pope and had a nice season for Texas State hitting .318 with 27 doubles and 12 home runs for the Bobcats. In the 17th they selected Ben Tyron from Dallas Baptist, another infielder with good walk to strikeout ratio and some sneaky pop.

The Astros continued their run on position players taking Petey Soto in the 18th round out of Utah Tech. Soto is a slick defender who hit .347 with 6 home runs and 13 stolen bases over 59 games. They took another catcher in the 19th in Noah Miller out of Michigan. His playing time was sparse but he was a big time prospect coming out of high school. They concluded their draft selecting Mick Uebelhor out of Western Kentucky. He pitched in relief in college and struck out 59 batters over 44.2 innings while posting a 3.43 ERA.

Padres Bradgley Rodriguez is gaining Stammen’s trust

San Diego Padres reliever Bradgley Rodriguez (Photo by Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune via Getty Images)

When Jason Adam went down with a right shoulder strain, it left the Friar Faithful wondering what else could go wrong for the San Diego Padres. No team can afford to lose a key setup reliever and expect to play winning baseball. 

Everyone began speculating about the team’s next move to replace a valuable member in the bullpen. The Padres did not turn to a veteran reliever; instead, they called up Bradgley Rodriguez. He provided early-season depth options for a team with issues in its starting rotation.

Rodriguez was an early-season success

Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove open the season on the Injured List. It was apparent the team’s rotation depth would be challenged in 2026. The back end of the bullpen would play a role in bridging the gap between a starting pitcher’s struggles to preserve a lead and the use of baseball’s premier relievers. 

Rodriguez was ticketed for this bullpen role after having an outstanding spring training. Quickly, he showed his versatility, as Rodriguez was used as an opener on a bulk-pitching day. Also, he opened some eyes by throwing multiple innings to limit the damage after another poor start from the rotation.

However, the organization viewed Rodriguez as an option for an expanded bullpen role. They sent him back to Triple-A to become a complete pitcher.

Rediscovering his pitching repertoire

Rodriguez worked on finding a good mix among his changeup, heavy sinker, and four-seamer. It has allowed him to rediscover his entire pitching repertoire. He posted a 3.14 ERA across 14.1 innings pitched in 15 appearances before his promotion back to the majors. 

He throws his changeup at 41.4%, his sinker at 26.8%, and the four-seamer at 23.2%. His repertoire keeps the hitters guessing, as Rodriguez throws his changeup in the low 90s. Often, they’re looking for a four-seamer coming in the high 90s. Instead, they hit on top of the ball for a groundout.

Rodriguez has done an excellent job of avoiding hard contact in his rookie season. He has given up only one home run in 39.0 innings pitched, as his hard-hit percentage (30.6%) is well below the league average (40.4%) this season. Opposing teams are hitting .202 against him.

Rodriguez has gained Stammen’s trust

Since his call-up, Padres manager Craig Stammen began using Rodriguez in the middle innings before bringing him in the seventh inning with multiple runners on base. He passed those high-leverage situations with flying colors. It won’t be long before Stammen uses Rodriguez in the setup role for closer Mason Miller.

The lone question remaining is whether his performance level is sustainable. Rodriguez is a rookie who has registered 39.0 innings pitched this season. His career minor league high mark is 46.2 innings pitched, so the Friars will need to monitor his usage in the second half. 

However, no one will complain if he continues to have strong outings. 

In an otherwise forgettable season, the emergence of Rodriguez as a quality setup reliever could be the highlight of the 2026 campaign. 

How much will it take to sign Tarik Skubal?

DETROIT, MI - JULY 07: Tarik Skubal #29 and Dillon Dingler #13 of the Detroit Tigers walk on the field prior to the game between the Athletics and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Tuesday, July 7, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Zack Belsky/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Tarik Skubal is not going to sign a multi year contract extension with the Detroit Tigers from a purely financial standpoint. Even if he’d had interest the time for that was sometime in the past two offseasons, and frankly neither party expressed any real interest in doing so. As the reigning two time Cy Young winner, “the best pitcher in baseball”, and a free agent after the 2026 season. Skubal is in a position to command both the highest dollar value and the highest average annual salary that any pitcher, has ever received, probably $350 million or more as we demonstrate below.

To figure out how much it would take to sign Skubal to a multi year contract, just skip directly to the top of the list of pitchers’ salaries all time. Look at total dollars and average annual salary (AAV).

While there are no pitchers among the list of MLB’s ten highest total contracts, the most money given to a pitcher is the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamomoto, who signed a contract for $325 million to be paid over 12 seasons, 2024 through 2035. The Dodgers also paid a posting fee of more than $50 million to NPB, the Japanese professional baseball league. 

Following is a short list of the ten highest total value contracts given to pitchers in MLB history:

PLAYERTOTAL $$TERMTEAMLENGTHAAV
Yamomoto325,000,0002024- 2035Dodgers12 yrs27.08M
Cole324,000,0002020- 2028Yankees9 yrs36.0 M
Strasburg245,000,0002020- 2026Nationals7 yrs35 M
Fried218,000,0002025- 2032Yankees8 yrs27.25 M
Price217,000,0002016- 2022Red Sox7 yrs31.0 M
Kershaw215,000,0002014- 2020Dodgers7 yrs30.7 M
Scherzer210,000,0002015- 2021Nationals7 yrs30.0 M
Burnes210,000,0002025- 2030Arizona6 yrs35 M
Greinke206,500,0002016- 2021Arizona6 yrs34.4 M
deGrom185,000,0002023- 2027Rangers5 yrs37.0 M

Only two pitchers in MLB history have signed contracts with a total value more than $250 million. (We’re excluding Shohei Ohtani who is much, much more than a pitcher.

Only three pitchers have signed contracts with a total value more than $218 million. Only one of them in the past five seasons, and his salary is spread out over twelve seasons.

Still, Tarik Skubal is expected to command a total value contract that will push the highest numbers ever paid to a pitcher.

While Yamomoto holds the record for the highest total salary, his AAV ranks 51st all time among players in MLB and 15th among pitchers, because it’s averaged over 12 seasons. Whether he will actually pitch 12 seasons remains to be seen.

Following is a chart showing the ten highest average annual value contracts (AAV’s) paid to pitchers in MLB history.

PLAYERAAV SALARYTERMTEAMTOTAL
Ohtani$46,081,4762024-2033Dodgers460 M*
Scherzer43,333,3332022- 2024Mets130 M
Verlander43,333,3332023-2024Mets86.67 M
Wheeler42,000,0002024- 2027Phillies168 M
Framber Valdez38.333,3332026- 2028Tigers115 M
deGrom37,000,0002023- 2027Rangers185 M
Snell36,400,0002024- 2029Dodgers218.4 M
Cole36,000,0002020- 2028Yankees324 M
Strasburg35,000,0002020- 2026Nationals245 M
Burnes35,000,0002025- 2030Arizona210 M
Bauer34,000,0002021- 2023Dodgers102 M

Shohei Ohtani tops the list once again, but we’re going to discount his contract since he was signed primarily as a hitter who can also pitch. Yes, he’s a very good pitcher, too. Ohtani’s total value is adjusted here for deferred salary.

The highest average annual value paid to pitcher(s) was given to two former Tigers, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, who received $43,333, 333 salaries. Scherzer signed a three year deal and Verlander two years both with the Mets. The Philadelphia Phillies paid Zack Wheeler $42 million apiece for four seasons. Next on the list, at No 10 overall is Framber Valdez at $38.5 million, on a potential four year contract though the final two years are a player option in 2028 for Valdez, and a mutual option for 2029.

The only contracts that topped $40 million were for two to four seasons, excluding Ohtani. Skubal figures to change that as well.

There is only one contract among those 34M or more with a total value above 245 million, and that is the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole. The next highest is the Nationals’ Steven Strasburg at 35M for 7 years. Both of these deals were signed in 2020. Skubal promises to top both the highest AAV and the total dollar value for a free agent pitcher.

Skubal’s contract as a free agent, and therefore any contract he would sign before becoming a free agent, could threaten to break the AAV record, but only if it turned out to be a relatively short term contract. Think more like 8- 10 seasons at an annual salary above $43.33 million. Not that he is expected to pitch ten more healthy seasons, although he might, but teams like to spread out the term of contracts, assuming the long term risks while deferring salary. The Dodgers have made a policy of long-term deferred money, and with a new CBA coming, the brief window of free agency before an impending lockout might be their last big bite at the deferral apple. For some teams, that could also mean avoiding tax consequences through deferred money as well.

THE COST TO RESIGN SKUBAL

Start at 8 years x 43.333 + or about $350 million. Agent Scott Boras was reortedly dialed in on a $400 million contract, but that was before he needed surgery to remove bone chips earlier this season. $350 million is just the starting point if the Tigers were to make an offer.

REASONS TO STAY IN DETROIT

Skubal has little to gain by signing an extension with the Tigers unless the contract will pay him similar to what he would receive as a free agent one season later.  There are a couple of perks in staying with Detroit, though.

  • In order to reach free agency, he must survive the season and remain healthy. A serious injury could derail his plans and significantly lower expectations for a free agent contract.
  • Commissioner Manfred and MLB owners are poised to shut down the game just as Skubal is set to hit free agency, in their never ending quest for a salary cap, which they know very well the players will never agree to.  If it plays out like the last lockout, there will be a signing freeze for  much of the winter and into the 2027 season.
  • In a related matter, Manfred has suggested that the owners could be looking for an individual salary cap that would affect only the very highest paid players. Presumably, there would have to be some offset at the lower end of the pay scale to get players to accept such a deal. MLB’s initial proposal to the players is that free agent contracts would be limited to five years for players changing teams and six years to remain with their current team. Any new rules may be phased in after a year or so.
  • Skubal is familiar with Detroit and the Tigers’ organization. Whether there is enough warmth to tilt the talks in favor of staying with the club is another question. Maybe even enough to break a tie?  So far, all signs point to him testing the market.

On the flip side of the coin, the biggest contracts result from a bidding war between the games billionaire owners, each wanting to “win” the contract battle. Skubal’s agent, Scott Boras, very rarely signs extensions that deprive his clients of the free agent experience.  His modus operandi is to create leverage in competitive bidding between clubs, not being shy to let owners know – often directly through the media — that they’re being out bid by other owners. He has negotiated some of the richest contracts in sports history.

SERVICE TIME

The highest salary given to a pitcher with five plus seasons of service time was the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw, who signed a seven year contract worth $215 million to stay in Los Angeles. After that, Luis Castillo signed a five year contract worth $108 million, an AAV of 21.6 M with Seattle.

Skubal himself has the record for the highest arbitration award at $32 million and that is also the highest AAV given to any pitcher prior to free agency.

There aren’t examples of pitchers signing extensions with just one season left before free agency, or at least not in the range of Skubal’s expectations. Again, no surprise here. He’s going to test free agency.

IF THE TIGERS KEEP SKUBAL

If the Tigers don’t trade Skubal and they are unable to sign him to an extension, they would surely make a qualifying offer in November, still under the terms of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, which projects to be about $22 million, and he would decline that offer and opt for free agency. Once he signs a contract with a total value of more than $50 million, the Tigers would receive a compensatory draft pick after the first round. So add up the value of Detroit having Skubal for the playoff run and the playoffs, plus the supplemental first round pick, for the Tigers to consider a trade.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

There is one critical factor that needs to be addressed, and everyone knows what it is. Pitchers get injured. The highest paid pitchers notoriously seem to wind up getting injured. So when a club signs a player for 8 years or 10 years, they pretty much know that they’re not going to get 8 to 10 healthy seasons of performance. And yet, pitching is what wins championships. Of course, it takes hitting as well, but the quest for front line starting pitching is a feature of every contender, in every off season, and again at every trade deadline.

  • Gerrit Cole has made 125 starts as a Yankee, but missed the entire 2025 season with Tommy John surgery and returned in May, 2026 after missing 569 days.
  • Steven Strasburg made just 8 starts for the Nationals since signing his $245 million contract
  • David Price averaged 24.5 starts for the Red Sox in the first four seasons of his seven year contract, but then just 11 starts in the final three seasons since he was traded to the Dodgers, mainly as a salary dump for LA to get Mookie Betts.
  • Corbin Burnes made just 11 starts in his first season of a $210M contract with Arizona
  • Jacob deGrom made just 9 starts total in his first two seasons of a four year contract with Texas. He made 30 starts in 2025 as he now enters the final year of the deal at age 38.
  • That’s five of the ten biggest contracts. Others on the list have been healthy and mostly productive, but the risk of injuries with pitchers looms large. A small to mid market club could be wiped out with such a large contract on the books and getting no value on the field.

The Tigers gave the 10th largest contract by average salary to Framber Valdez at 38.5 million per season, but that was for just three seasons. The salary is obviously not a deterrent, but the number of seasons at such a high salary is just too rich for them. That is something we could only speculate, but as they didn’t make any aggressive push for an extension, there’s no reason to expect anything but Skubal and Boras testing the free agent market and establishing a new bar for top pitching contracts. Depending on how the CBA negotations turn out, the new ruleset, with a proposed hard cap and floor involved, that bar may never be approached again, but it’s still hard to believe that the players’ union will ever agree to a hard salary cap.

Ronald Acuña Jr., Ha-Seong Kim begin rehab today in Florida

Happy All-Star break to all who celebrate. May we all come away from this refreshed and ready for what awaits us in the next half, which kicks off Friday at home versus the Rangers.

This week is for rest and recovery, but also a secret third R: rehab.

The Braves (55-40) have announced that Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ha-Seong Kim will both begin rehab assignments with the FCL Braves. They play in North Port, Florida at noon today.

Acuña Jr. was placed on the 10-day IL with his second Grade 1 hamstring strain this season on June 10. This one was believed to be milder than the one that kept him on the shelf between May 3 and May 18. Even so, the Braves have understandably erred on the side of caution in not rushing him back.

Kim was placed on the 10-day IL on July 4 with right middle finger inflammation. We don’t need to belabor the season Kim is having, but here’s hoping something about this IL stint does him some good on the path to playing at a Major League level.

More reinforcements are on the way – we will share updates on the statuses of Robert Suarez, Sean Murphy, Mike Yastrzemski, and more once available.

In The Lab: A Look at First Base Offense

One of the key points we discovered last time when looking at catcher offense is that each position stands on its own. The big league average for bases per out is .676, but that number is rarely ever the most relevant number. At first glance, it would appear that Christian Walker should be an American League all-star. He is at worst solid defensively and he has added 20 home runs (as of this writing) by the all-star break. However, we might be signing a different tune when we look at the American League numbers.

We are setting up the same rules as we did last time. Qualifying players need at least 120 outs and have had to play some first base. This will obviously include some designated hitters, but DH is not really so much of a position as a sanctioned strategy. So, when we profile Yordan Alvarez later on, he will be profiled as a left fielder. Given those caveats, there are 19 players that qualify for the analysis.

What we are looking for is an analysis of mean and median. It is one thing to say that the average big league hitter has a ,676 BPO. It is another to look at first basemen and see what their average is. Mean is of course what most people know as the numerical average. Median is the number in the middle. When we have smaller data sets we will commonly see some discrepancies between the mean and the median.

Bases per out is calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by total outs. The general idea is that it is more inclusive and accurate than OPS. It encompasses everything a player does offensively. How is Christian Walker doing as compared to the typical American League first basemen?

OutsTBBBSBHBPBPO
Nick Kurtz25116676721.000
Ben Rice2491974623.996
Munetaka Murakama1621144412.988
Willson Contreras23516935214.936
Yandy Diaz2411653719.880
Jonathan Aranda2531565107.846
Pete Alonso2771645024.794
Cody Clemens2321452165.763
Paul Goldschmidt1781141713.758
Christian Walker2791643207.728
Spencer Torkelson2571334105.696
Jake Burger2581432823.682
Josh Bell2601452712.673
Rhys Hoskins183784203.672
Nolan Schanuel2171092505.641
Vlad Guerrero Jr.2611154064.632
Josh Naylor27712229183.621
Kyle Manzardo213953204.615
Vinnue Pasquantino204893231.613
Mean236.1135.941.12.74.5.780
Median2411393513.729

I certainly don’t have a degree in mathematics and I don’t teach it during the school year, but it isn’t difficult to see patterns. Generally speaking, the more success you have the more opportunities you get. So, the numbers on top are driving the mean up. This is the most important reason why the median makes more sense as a benchmark. If you look at who is literally in the middle it is Christian Walker.

Again, the components and the end results don’t quite add up because of the differences in opportunity. If you crunch those numbers in the median column you will not get .729. You will actually get .739. Either way, that number seems like a much more reasonable number when looking at the average of the position in the American League. We can also see clearly, that Walker really doesn’t have any business being near the All-Star game with the number of productive players we have here.

What is more interesting is pegging whether Walker is actually worth the 20 million dollars he is being paid. As per usual, that depends on how you phrase the question. In terms of pure value is actually probably pretty close. He was worth 0.3 BWAR last season, but has been worth 1.8 BWAR through the all-star break. That probably prorates to something around 3.0 BWAR. If each win is worth eight million dollars then he would need five WAR to equal that amount. He was worth 1.1 FWAR last year and has 1.6 FWAR this season. If we are to believe Fangraphs then he comes reasonably close overall and certainly earns his money this season. We can also look at his overall numbers as an Astro and compare that with BPO.

OutsTBBBSBHBPBPO
Christian Walker 2025-202674041072218.678

So, again this is a question of perspective. According to these numbers, Walker has been a league average hitter overall in his time in Houston. However, the numbers above would indicate that he is not an average first basemen. The NL may not have the heavyweights that the AL has at first base, so he might end up looking better in the overall scheme of things, but clearly whether he has been worth the expense depends greatly on how you ask the question.

In the last article, we asked what Diaz would need to do differently to help advance the Astros offense. Walker clearly just needs to keep doing what he is doing. If he ends up with between 30 and 35 home runs and close to 100 RBI then that feels like a really good season for him. One of the biggest mistakes that teams and fans make is that they expect that big time dollars somehow make you something you are not. Walker’s 2026 numbers are in line with his career numbers. He has been the guy that he was before he came to Houston in 2026. No one should have expected him to be anything more than that.

Padres head into All-Star break at .500 with series win over Blue Jays

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 12: Jase Bowen #4 of the San Diego Padres is congratulated by Rodolfo Duran #48 after scoring a run during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Petco Park on July 12, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images

In their final turn at-bat in their final game of the ceremonial first half of the season, the San Diego Padres had their best inning of offensive execution, and the result was a 5-4 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The win not only allowed the Padres to get their first series win of July it also sent them into the All-Star break with a .500 record at 48-48. Mason Miller, who locked down his 25th save of the season, is the lone All-Star for San Diego so the rest of the team will use the break to rest and reset for a potential playoff push in the second half of the year.

The Padres entered the bottom of the eighth inning trailing the Blue Jays, 4-3. Adrian Morejon allowed a run in the top of the inning during his second inning of work. Toronto turned to former closer Jeff Hoffman hoping to hold the lead and setup a potential save situation for their new closer, Louis Varland. Xander Bogaerts opened the inning with an infield single, which brought Manny Machado to the plate. Bogaerts stole second to move into scoring position, and Machado followed with a single into left-center field which tied the game at 4-4.

Gavin Sheets then grounded out to the shortstop, but Machado was able to advance to second on the play and was lifted for pinch-runner Jase Bowen. The rookie stole third base to put the winning run 90 feet away with Ty France at the plate with one out. France, who hit what proved to be the game-winning home run in the bottom of the sixth inning in the second game of the series, hit a deep fly ball into right-center field that carried all the way to the warning track. The ball was deep enough to allow Bowen to tag up and easily score from third base to put the Padres ahead, 5-4. Jake Cronenworth hit a two-out single, but the inning ended when Rodolfo Duran flied out to right field.

Miller came in for the save in the top of the ninth inning and made quick work of the three batters he faced. He got Ernie Clement to ground out to third base, Myles Straw to pop out to second base and put the punctuation mark on the inning and the game when he got Vladamir Guerrero Jr. to strikeout on three pitches with a nasty slider that finished in the left-hand batter’s box. Miller needed just eight pitches, seven of which were strikes, to ensure San Diego went into the break with some momentum for the second half of the season.

Machado’s game-tying hit in the bottom of the eighth inning was his third of the game. He finished the day 3-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored. Cronenworth was the only other Padres hitter to have a multi-hit game, finishing 2-for-4 with an RBI, which came in the second inning to score the first run of the game for San Diego.

German Marquez started the game for the Padres and lasted four innings. He allowed three runs on six hits with two walks and four strikeouts. He was hurt by the long ball as all three runs for the Blue Jays scored on home runs. Marquez allowed a solo home run in the first inning to Nathan Lukes and a two-run home run in the fourth inning to Clement.

San Diego returns to action on Friday on the road against the Kansas City Royals.

Padres News:

  • According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Padres general manager and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller wants to buy at the trade deadline, and the San Diego club will have to convince him to do so.

Baseball News:

What do the Red Sox do with Brayan Bello now?

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 12: Brayan Bello #66 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during the fourth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 12, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images

After not exactly lighting the world on fire in AAA, Brayan Bello nonetheless returned to the big leagues yesterday. And he shoved: 4.1 IP, 5 K, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB.

So the obvious question is: what now? The Red Sox do have room in the rotation — at least for now — with Ranger Suárez and Connelly Early on the IL. Moreover, as we saw in yesterday’s stunted start, the team is going to attempt to limit the workload of Payton Tolle in his first full season. Yet it must be said that Bello once again came out of the bullpen yesterday, and has not yet proven that he can be as effective in a starting role this year.

So what comes next for Bello? Is he thrown back into the rotation? Does he go in on a piggybacking timeshare with Tolle for the time being?

Use this space to talk about whatever you want. Be good to each other and go Sox.

Monday Morning Texas Rangers Update

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JULY 12: Brandon Nimmo #24 of the Texas Rangers celebrates with teammates after hitting a game-winning, walk-off single against the Houston Astros in the bottom of the ninth inning at Globe Life Field on July 12, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning.

Kennedi Landry writes that after MacKenzie Gore stepped up for a short notice start, Brandon Nimmo provided the walk-off to send the Texas Rangers to the All-Star break with a winning record.

Jeff Wilson writes that the walk-off win sends the Rangers to the break in first place in the American League West despite everything.

Shawn McFarland writes that the comeback win over Houston after they had lost a late lead shows that Skip Schumaker’s bid for clubhouse culture is taking shape.

Landry writes about the incoming draft class after the Rangers added 16 prospects on the draft’s final day yesterday.

McFarland writes that the Rangers are likely to sign potential first-round talent Brody Bumila after he slipped to them in the third round.

Landry writes that the big left-hander Bumila could be a steal for Texas but he will have to recover from arm surgery before he can make his mark.

McFarland notes that the Rangers had to spend light on Day 2 of the draft after jumping on some guys who fell to them on Day 1.

And, the Futures Game was yesterday and prospect Caden Scarborough tossed a scoreless inning with a strikeout representing the Rangers.

Have a nice day!

How will the Orioles replace Blaze Alexander?

CINCINNATI, OHIO - JULY 05: Third baseman Blaze Alexander #23 of the Baltimore Orioles looks on during a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on July 05, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images) | Getty Images

When the Orioles traded for Blaze Alexander back in February, expectations were modest. The former 11th-round pick had been useful in his time with the Diamondbacks, showing positional versatility and some speed on the bases. But his outlook was still that of a bench player that could fill in here and there. And that’s similar to how the Orioles used him earlier this season until a combination of poor play around him and consistent performance from Alexander pushed him into a regular role. Now, with the 27-year-old on the IL with a broken hand for several weeks at least, the Orioles are left scrambling to replace him.

It won’t be easy. Alexander had become a force in the team’s lineup. He owns a .310/.368/.439 batting line on the season. That even includes some early-season struggles (.177/.250/.210 line in March/April) that bring his overall numbers down. Since May 25, Alexander is slashing .388/.442/.578 with four home runs, eight doubles, one triple, nine walks, and 21 strikeouts. You could make an argument that he has been one of the league’s absolute best hitters in that—rather lengthy—stretch.

Alexander’s breakthrough had seemingly solved one of the team’s biggest holes at third base. With Jordan Westburg on the shelf, the Orioles attempted to hand the job to Coby Mayo early in the year. But the young slugger hasn’t shown himself to be a viable everyday player. His .193/.264/.395 line this year is similar to what he produced in an underwhelming 2025 campaign.

However, Mayo has carved a fine niche for himself by crushing left-handed pitching to the tune of a 1.092 OPS this season. That’s an area where Alexander had struggled (.672 OPS this year), so little will change when the opposing team is starting a southpaw.

Against right-handed pitchers, however, this will present a problem for manager Craig Albernaz. And that’s a pretty massive issue, since three-quarters of major league pitchers throw with their right hand.

Mayo (.447 OPS against RHP this season) is virtually unplayable in those situations. Jeremiah Jackson runs hot and cold, and has a pedestrian .685 OPS against righties this season, but is the likely next man up in this situation. Jackson Holliday took some reps at third base during his rehab earlier this season, but someone needs to man second base, and it’s not as if Holliday has been a stud (.691 OPS) against right-handed pitching this season anyway.

The straightforward solution would be to use Jackson at third base against righties and Mayo against lefties. The duo would then sub in for one another late in games as the matchup dictates. Maybe the Orioles will catch lightning in a bottle with at least one of them.

Jackson has a .737 OPS since the start of June. That’s not awful, though he hasn’t walked at all in that stretch, has been sent down to Triple-A in the middle of it, and is a player that can struggle when overexposed. Mayo has a 1.026 OPS in the month of July, but he is being protected by his manager, rarely facing right-handed pitching at all. It will be difficult to maintain that balance with Alexander on the IL.

Holliday will also be impacted. His bat has been heating up recently (.263/.500/.316 line in July), and he takes some of the best at-bats on the team. But Albernaz has been cycling him in and out of the lineup fairly regularly to keep him fresh and take advantage of matchups. That won’t be as easy to do with Alexander out.

There are no top infield prospects down in Norfolk waiting to come up either. Christian Encarnacion-Strand could get a promotion though. He is already on the 40-man roster and boasts some solid season totals (.273/.309/.555, 17 home runs, 48 RBI), but he strikes out a bunch (30.6% K-rate this season in Triple-A), and owns just a 91 wRC+ across parts of three MLB seasons with the Reds.

Other options currently with the Tides include spring stud Bryan Ramos, who has just a .630 OPS this year, José Barrero, who is OPS’ing .807 and has played in parts of four big league seasons, or the familiar and light-hitting Luis Vàzquez. Both Barrero and Vàzquez can play shortstop, which would be nice to have since Alexander did serve as Gunnar Henderson’s backup, a role that would probably fall to Holliday at the moment.

None of these solutions are particularly attractive, especially with the expectation that Alexander could miss most of what’s left in the regular season, or more. The Orioles could hobble through a brief IL stint with what they have, but if they truly have playoff ambitions then they need something more at third base.

Perhaps the one silver lining of the entire situation is the timing. The Orioles front office now has a few days without games that they can use to evaluate their position, the trade landscape, and the sorts of moves they are willing to make. If they are truly going to pursue a playoff spot, adding an infielder has to be on their shopping list. It can be a third baseman, or it can be a second baseman that would allow them to platoon some combination of Mayo, Holliday, and Jackson at the hot corner.

The trade deadline isn’t for another three weeks, so teams may be reticent to make a move now. Only a handful of clubs are truly “out” of the playoff race. The Royals, Angels, Athletics, Mets, Reds, Giants, and Rockies might be the only clubs ready to sell. And then from that group only a couple of them have players that would fit the Orioles needs and be available in a trade.

Luis Arraez is on an expiring deal and has been tremendous on an otherwise disastrous Giants squad. If the Tigers decide to sell, Gleyber Torres would be a useful hitter towards the bottom of the order. Brett Baty from the Mets would be a risky but intriguing addition that comes with years of team control.

These are all purely speculative, but represent the sort of “throw everything at the wall and see what sticks” ideas that the Orioles could be tossing around this week. But as always it comes down to cost of getting that deal done. Mike Elias has shown a willingness to be aggressive at previous trade deadlines, but he often avoids the absolute top of the market. Maybe that perspective shifts if he believes his job is on the line with another disappointing season.

Will the Braves be better in the “second half?”

ATLANTA, GA - JULY 06: Walt Weiss #22 of the Atlanta Braves stands for the national anthem before the game against the New York Mets at Truist Park on July 6, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images

This is kind of a weird question, but hear me out.

As it stands right now, the Braves are on pace for a 94-win season. That’s pretty good! Of course, you all know about how June (especially June 9-30) was a nightmare, and the best the Braves have managed since is .500 ball. So, at the same time, the bar to clear is both reasonable (playing above a 94-win pace for 2.5 months) and perhaps very high up there (a team that is among the worst in MLB for the past six weeks playing above a 94-win pace for 2.5 months).

But, I want to flag something else, which is that despite their record, the Braves’ production has been mediocre. Part of this is a brief story about the edges of production: once your production is high enough, you win more than expected since both your run scoring and run prevention make it hard to lose; at the same time, when any of your production is low enough, it’s hard to win.

  • Through June 8, the Braves were fourth in position player fWAR and ninth in pitching fWAR. However, the way in which they layered those got them way more wins than you’d expect from a top-ten team in both. I don’t really mean this is sequencing or a benefit from BABIP or anything, it’s more just that if you’re good at both, you can squeak out wins when one doesn’t fire. Combine that with some aggressive pitching management to make sure that you deploy the pitching when the offense isn’t pulling its weight, and yeah, that team probably shouldn’t have been 45-21, but that’s what happened.
  • After June 8, the Braves are 29th in position player fWAR and 23rd in pitching fWAR. That’s really bad. They’re maybe a little lucky to have gone 10-19 (case in point, the game against the Cardinals on Sunday), but that’s also about what you’d expect a bottom ten team in both to do.

So, put that together, and the Braves are still riding a bit of a “our record is way better than our production” from earlier in the season.

Which brings me to my question: do you think that the Braves can get back to their 94-win pace over the 67 games that remain? I tend to think “no” unless they go back to the same type of management they were doing through the first two months… and even that’s a stretch, because the management has to result in the same rate of wins, which isn’t likely. But, that’s why I’m throwing it out there. What do you think?

Did you watch the Futures Game?

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 12: Manager Larry Bowa #10 of the Philadelphia Phillies on the American League Team looks on during the 2026 MLB Futures Game at Citizens Bank Park on July 12, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Futures Game is a big part of the All-Star weekend in which teams send representatives from their minor league system to participate in what amounts to a prospect list All-Star Game. The problem is that, while it should be something of a showcase event, MLB has decided in recent years to banish it when other MLB games are on and to shorten it to seven innings, both stupid ideas.

The question is: did you watch any of it? It really is a game that is for baseball sickos since there are probably a lot of names people that aren’t diehards do not know. We, of course, know Gage Wood, the pitcher that started the game for the National League side and most probably know Wei-Hui Pan, the right hander in the team’s organization. Other than that, you’d have to dig deep to know many of the names.

MLB should be doing more to promote this game.

Overall thoughts on the Yankees’ 2026 MLB Draft class

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 11: MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred speaks during the 2026 MLB Draft at Pennsylvania Convention Center on July 11, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The draft is never the No. 1 tool in the Yankees’ toolbox when it comes to building a contending roster, but it’s not one they can ever truly ignore. They’ll always use their financial might to get some of the best talent money can buy in pinstripes, but in a league that’s quickly becoming one where they’re not the pre-eminent spending power and with the upcoming labor negotiations threatening to put everyone on a similar playing field, getting cheap talent is becoming more and more important.

However you feel about some of these guys, there’s no doubt the quality of the Yankees’ drafts has improved since the COVID-19 pandemic. The team finally found its first true franchise cornerstone bat since Aaron Judge in the 12th round in 2021 in Ben Rice, and concurrently seems to have unearthed their first homegrown ace since Andy Pettitte (did 2017-18 Sevy count?) in former seventh-rounder Cam Schlittler, while also producing a bunch of big leaguers that have filled up the margins of rosters around the league.

The 2026 draft has come and gone. As usual, the Yanks had one of the lowest draft slot values, made even lower when their first-round pick was dropped 10 spots due to exceeding the luxury tax. As such, they don’t have as much money to play with when it comes to over- and under-slot guys compared to revenue-sharing teams that get free top draft picks for existing.

As such, they have a playbook they like to stick by. Here’s a few rules of that playbook over the last few years:

  • College arms are the priority, especially tall, projectable righties.
  • Of the hitters the team selects, they’re usually college bats. Most of them have a serious power tool, but a few contact bats slip through. Of those college bats, don’t bother with catchers. We do good enough internationally with them.
  • Don’t play around with the high school circuit. You don’t have the money to sign a lot of them.
  • The exception to the rule above is the first round. With your first pick, feel free to draft a prep shortstop.

Those four rules can be found across the last five draft classes, but the Yankees didn’t seem to care all that much about their prior playbook this year. Pretty much every rule was violated to some extent. Is it an aberration, a new trend, or something that the team viewed as necessary given the current state of the farm?

I’ll start at the jump, where the Yankees selected left-handed pitcher Hunter Dietz out of Arkansas. It’s not too dissimilar to their picking Ben Hess out of Alabama two years ago, but he’s a better prospect with better results at the time of drafting. It’s the first time the Yankees have picked a southpaw pitcher with their first selection since Jacob Lindgren in 2014. Even odder? They doubled up with Sean Duncan in the second round, marking the first time they picked a pair of lefties to start a draft since Eric Milton and Jason Coble in 1996.

What’s also interesting about these two? They went a bit below where they were supposed to because of recent injuries. Dietz underwent surgery in the fall of 2023 before a setback took him out of baseball for pretty much two years. Before his stellar 2026 campaign, he had tossed 1.2 career D1 innings. Duncan recently underwent Tommy John surgery and likely won’t make his pro debut until 2028, but he is a high-school arm with plenty of time to rehab.

On that high school note, the Yankees aren’t big on prep arms early in the draft, either. They last picked one of those in the first five rounds in 2021 with Brock Selvidge. Duncan is the highest-drafted prep pitcher by the organization since picking Matt Sauer No. 54 in 2017.

What we certainly didn’t expect was that he’d be the first of several prep draftees for the Yankees. They picked four high schoolers for just the second time in the last nine drafts.

That 2023 draft saw them go with George Lombard Jr. early and a trio of guys late in Josh Tiedemann, Danny Flatt, and Puerto Rico native Wilson Rodriguez. They signed all four of them, but that might be because only Lombard needed to be lured away from a major baseball school. While Tiedemann was a TCU commit, Flatt was signed to Lipscomb and Rodriguez didn’t have a college offer.

In this draft, they’re going to have to lure guys away from Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, James Madison, and Texas Tech. They took a swing on Andrew Gonzalez out of the El Paso area in the sixth round before throwing some late fliers at Lee Garris out of Virginia and William Cutshall out of South Carolina. Three prep bats are a real rarity for the organization to draft with their limited assets, so I’m interested to see if the men in charge have something up their sleeves to get all four prep guys to put pen to paper.

On the bats in general, the Yankees picked a lot more of them than I thought they would. Their organizational philosophy of late has been to put their eggs in the position player market internationally while going after the projectable college arms in the draft, but this year? They only picked eight pitchers out of 20, the fewest since 2007.

Additionally, the team also selected two catchers in the first 10 rounds. This usually isn’t something to bat an eye at, but for this organization? It’s something notable. The Yankees under Tanner Swanson have helped develop a lot of big league catchers, but almost all of them were either drafted elsewhere, undrafted, or international signings:

  • JC Escarra: minor league free agent
  • Rodolfo Duran: minor league free agent
  • Carlos Narvaez: international signing
  • Mickey Gasper: drafted pre-2020
  • Rafael Flores Jr.: undrafted free agent
  • Jesus Rodriguez: international signing
  • Agustin Ramirez: international signing
  • Omar Martinez: international signing

There are a bunch more who spent a very brief time in the organization, but you get the point. Since drafting Austin Wells in the first round in 2020 until this year, the Yankees have only drafted three catchers: Ben Rice (12th round, 2021), Dominic Keegan (19th round, 2021), and Tomas Frick (13th round, 2023). Rice, obviously, came up as a first baseman and might never catch again; Keegan didn’t sign, and Frick is currently in Double-A.

Entering this draft, though, it was pretty obvious they needed to refill the coffers. The team emptied its organizational catching depth at last year’s deadline, and they’ve spent all season giving minor league journeymen at-bats in the upper minors. While guys like Engelth Urena, Josue Gonzalez, and Luis Puello have been plying their trade in A-ball, they needed a talent infusion.

So, for the first time in six years, they spent a pick in the first 10 rounds on a catcher. They even doubled down by picking two different SEC backstops in the first half of the draft for the first time since picking Anthony Seigler and Josh Breaux at the top of the 2018 draft. While Brendan Brock, the Oklahoma product, could wind up in the outfield with his genuine plus speed, they both seem to have a real shot at sticking behind the plate.

Those last two trends speak to a shift in the team’s philosophy for this draft. They’ve spent the last five years building considerable pitching depth in the organization, which has gotten guys like Schlittler and Will Warren major league starting jobs, while minor league affiliates up and down the system were picked with pretty favorable selections.

The Yankees need position player prospects. They cleaned out a lot of the intriguing guys in the last year via trade. At this point, with Spencer Jones on the brink of graduating and Lombard not far behind, their only highly rated hitting prospect is 2025 first-rounder Dax Kilby, who’s played one game this year due to recurring hamstring issues. Who’s their second-best hitting prospect after him? It’s hard to tell.

The fruits of this draft class won’t be seen for quite some time, but the Yankees seem to be changing things up to increase the upside of this class. Instead of punting some of the late picks they won’t sign, they grabbed a few Power Four sluggers who they’re banking on continuing to slug up the minor league ladder.

The true upside of this class is going to rely on their ability to squeeze these guys into their rather diminutive bonus pool. Four prep guys, plus multiple small college transfers with offers from big-time schools that come with six-figure NIL salaries gives a wide range of outcomes for just how many actually join the organization.

Will going away from their fastball pay off in the end? We’ll know soon enough.

Mets Morning News: Socked by the Sox

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 12: Pinch runner Tsung-Che Cheng #39 of the Boston Red Sox scores a game tying run during the ninth inning past Devin Williams #38 of the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 12, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Meet the Mets

The Mets were swept by the Red Sox 3-2 in the final game before the All-Star break. Zach Thornton had his best start yet, throwing seven scoreless innings and allowing just two hits while striking out five batters.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post, The Athletic

In order to make room for Thornton, the Mets optioned Tobias Myers back to Syracuse yesterday.

After yesterday’s gem of a start, Thornton will begin the second half of the season with a spot in the Mets’ rotation.

Despite his recent struggles, Andy Green says he isn’t currently considering replacing Devin Williams as the team’s closer with Luke Weaver.

A rom-com starring Chris Pine was shot yesterday at Citi Field during the game, with Pine taking the field to throw a first pitch.

Jon Heyman has six steps for David Stearns to begin cleaning up the mess that is the New York Mets.

For New York sports fans, who wasn’t at the Futures Game was just as notable as who was.

The 2026 amateur draft wrapped up yesterday, with the Mets’ slate fully selected.

Marcus Semien has begun a rehab assignment with Double-A Binghamton and went deep in his first game.

Around the National League East

The Nationals lost to the Yankees 5-3. Andrew Alvarez collected the loss, giving up three runs in two innings of relief behind Cade Cavalli.

The Phillies beat the Tigers in a 5-0 shutout. Zack Wheeler threw six scoreless innings, giving up just two hits and struck out ten batters in a performance very becoming of a non-All-Star.

The Marlins ended their great first half with a not-so-great 5-2 loss to the Guardians. Griffin Conine drove in one of the Marlins two runs with a solo home run off of All-Star reliever Cade Smith.

The Braves squeaked out a 4-3 win over the Cardinals in the ninth inning. The go-ahead run was scored by Ozzie Albies in the top of the ninth thanks to a Masyn Winn throwing error.

Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sánchez was announced as the starting pitcher for the All-Star Game on Tuesday at his home ballpark.

Around Major League Baseball

Yankees starter Cam Schlittler will not be pitching in the All-Star Game, instead using the time off to focus on preparation for the second half.

MLB broke down how every teams prospects performed at this year’s Futures Game.

While he won’t be completely unavailable, Logan Webb and the Giants have asked that Webb only be used in the All-Star Game if there’s no other options left.

The starting pitcher for the American League in the All-Star Game will be Blue Jays starter Dylan Cease.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Brian Salvatore took a trip down memory lane with the past Mets representatives at the Futures Game.

Steve Sypa delivered two Mets draftee profiles, one being fifth round pick Luke McNeillie and the other being sixth rounder Alex Petrovic.

This Date in Mets History

On this day back in 1988, the Mets had four players representing them at the All-Star Game, including Doc Gooden, Daryl Strawberry, and Gary Carter.