Category: MLB

It must be fun to be a manager and a pitching coach. Ok, we have Shane Bieber back and ready to go. Three starts in, he has a 9.00 ERA. 7 walks and 9 strikeouts in 13 innings. Batters are hitting .351/.422/.737 against him.

His fastball velocity is at the 15th percentile and average exit velocity is about 5th percentile. And it isn’t like they can remove him from the rotation, they are already going with four starters and a bullpen day. It is just the way a 31-year-old would like to go into free agency.

But the good news is that Max Scherzer had a rehab start and could be back after a couple more rehab starts. Maybe the one guy who has been worse than Bieber, and that’s the good news.

I don’t even know what you do at this point. I think Patrick Corbin is a better choice than either of those two and he was banished to the bullpen.

Jake Bloss? He has a 14.29 ERA in 3 starts for Buffalo. Ricky Tiedemann has pitched 1 inning in a rehab game and then was scratched from his next one with a “neck issue”. I can’t see that SWR would be a poorer choice.

The front office is saying they want a starter at the deadline, but one starter really isn’t enough.

The Jays are second last in the league in runs per game, and yet it looks like starting pitching is going to be the issue from here on out.

They announced the All-Star teams. Vlad has pulled out, which is understandable. Though maybe a couple of days of just fun is what he needs.

The AL All-Stars:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Starters
C: Shea Langeliers (ATH)
1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
2B: Ernie Clement (TOR)
3B: Junior Caminero (TB)
SS: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC)
OF: Mike Trout (LAA)
OF: Byron Buxton (MIN)
OF: Aaron Judge (NYY)
DH: Yordan Alvarez (HOU)

Reserves
C: Dillon Dingler (DET)
C: Adley Rutschman (BAL)
INF: Travis Bazzana (CLE)
INF: Nick Kurtz (ATH)
INF: Kevin McGonigle (DET)
INF: Ben Rice (NYY)
INF: Miguel Vargas (CWS)
OF: Randy Arozarena (SEA)
OF: Cody Bellinger (NYY)
OF: Riley Greene (DET)
DH: Yandy Díaz (TB)

Starting pitchers
RHP: Dylan Cease (TOR)
LHP: Parker Messick (CLE)
RHP: Drew Rasmussen (TB)
RHP: Joe Ryan (MIN)
RHP: Cam Schlittler (NYY)
LHP: Ranger Suarez (BOS)
RHP: Michael Wacha (KC)

Relief pitchers
RHP: Bryan Baker (TB)
LHP: Aroldis Chapman (BOS)
LHP: Jacob Latz (TEX)
RHP: Cade Smith (CLE)
RHP: Louis Varland (TOR)

NL

Starters
C: Drake Baldwin (ATL)
1B: Freddie Freeman (LAD)
2B: Ozzie Albies (ATL)
3B: Max Muncy (LAD)
SS: CJ Abrams (WSH)
OF: Brandon Marsh (PHI)
OF: Juan Soto (NYM)
OF: Andy Pages (LAD)
DH: Shohei Ohtani (LAD)

Reserves
C: William Contreras (MIL)
C: Hunter Goodman (COL)
INF: Luis Arraez (SF)
INF: Bryce Harper (PHI)
INF: Otto Lopez (MIA)
INF: Matt Olson (ATL)
INF: Sal Stewart (CIN)
OF: Corbin Carroll (AZ)
OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)
OF: Jordan Walker (STL)
OF: James Wood (WSH)
DH: Kyle Schwarber (PHI)

Starting pitchers
RHP: Chase Burns (CIN)
RHP: Max Meyer (MIA)
RHP: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
LHP: Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ)
LHP: Chris Sale (ATL)
LHP: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
RHP: Paul Skenes (PIT)
RHP: Logan Webb (SF)
RHP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)

A win this afternoon would be nice. Or, at least, a game that keeps me awake.

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Sunday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's heaviest hitters find themselves in mouthwatering matchups.

Before locking in your MLB player props, here are the hitters my MLB picks are targeting to leave their mark this afternoon.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Rafael Devers	Over 1.5 total bases	-144
Tanner Gordon	Over 3.5 earned runs	-105
Javier Assad	Under 3.5 strikeouts	-120

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (-144)

No, this is not the sexiest price you've ever seen, but if you're not in the business of laying juice, you can always take his home run and double market instead. Still, with Rafael Devers ranking as one of the top-rated hitters across both Batters-Box datasets, it's hard to pass up this much data backing the San Francisco Giants slugger.

Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Devers owns a .327 batting average, .837 slugging percentage, and 1.287 OPS, while producing a 55.6% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.

He draws Colorado Rockies right-hander Tanner Gordon, whose arsenal Devers owns more than 65% coverage against. This season at home, Gordon has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .359 with a .538 slugging percentage and .408 wOBA. Those hitters have also generated a 59.5% elevation rate and a 54.8% hard-hit rate.

With Devers posting a .638 wOBA, 27.3% barrel rate, and 1.120 slugging percentage over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, how could I pass this up at Coors?

• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Peacock

Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 earned runs (-105)

Is asking for 4+ runs in essentially the first five innings a lot? Of course, but when you're in Coors with five elite-rated hitters and four more carrying strong ratings, it's very tough to ignore that data.

Tanner Gordon draws the highest-rated offense on the slate while carrying the day's worst pitcher rating. He enters this matchup with poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate.

At home this season, Gordon owns a 9.70 ERA, 6.00 xERA, and 1.83 WHIP. Opposing hitters are also generating a concerning 51.32% hard-hit rate and 15.79% barrel rate against him.

Over their last six games, the Giants have posted a 111 wRC+, .742 OPS, and .172 ISO. With an entire lineup rated above 0.50 on Batters-Box, the matchup is simply too strong for me to pass up. I am willing to lay the high run total because Gordon has struggled all season, and this profiles as another difficult outing for him.

• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Peacock

Javier Assad Under 3.5 strikeouts (-120)

One thing the St. Louis Cardinals do very well as a team is avoid strikeouts. On the season, they're just a hair over 20% as a team. In their last 21 games, that number is down to 17.8%. Their lineup is peppered with hitters carrying strikeout rates under 17%, six to be exact. Four of them sit at 13.3% or lower.

That lineup draws Chicago Cubs right-hander Javier Assad, who owns the lowest matchup strikeout on the slate, per Batters Box. In 15 default average ratings on Batters Box, Assad stays under four strikeouts 53.33% of the time.

At home this season, his strikeout rate is just 13.10%, and over his last three outings, it has dipped to 12.28%. At -120, this is a sweaty Under worth getting into. Anything much higher than this price, I would pass.

• Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Peacock

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Freddie Freeman has driven in nine runs over his last eight games against a left-handed starting pitcher.

Freeman draws a struggling southpaw tonight in JP Sears, which is why he headlines my Padres vs. Dodgers props and MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball.

Make sure to also check out our full Padres vs. Dodgers predictions before first pitch at 7:20 p.m. ET!

Padres vs Dodgers props for July 5

Pick	Odds
Andy Pages Over 0.5 runs	-145
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBIs	+145
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 singles	-115

Padres vs Dodgers player prop picks

Andy Pages Over 0.5 runs (-145)

Andy Pages has hit .264 off lefties with a rock-solid .350 OBP. He is consistently getting on base, allowing him to score regularly as part of a loaded Los Angeles Dodgers attack.

Meanwhile, righties have hit .314 against JP Sears with a whopping .399 xwOBA to boot.

Isolating matchups with left-handed pitchers ranking in the 30th percentile or worse in xwOBA vs. righties, Pages has scored in eight of 11 games — and six of seven victories.

I’d back Pages to score up to -155.

Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBIs (+145)

Freddie Freeman has been an RBI machine against left-handed pitchers. Thanks to a .409 average with runners in scoring position, he has knocked in at least one run in 13 of 23 starts vs. lefties.

Freeman has done so in seven of the last eight wins when facing a left-handed starter, which is certainly notable with the Dodgers listed as -200 favorites on the moneyline. 

A +145 price tag implies a 40.8% probability, which feels low given Freeman has knocked in a run 56.5% of his starts vs. lefties – and 62.5% of victories.

Bet to +117.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 singles (-115)

Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit righties much better of late, posting a .317 average since June 1. He leads the San Diego Padres by a margin of 14 hits during that span.

Nearly 63% of Tatis' hits against right-handed pitchers were singles, and Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan ranks in the 48th percentile in batting average vs. righties. 

Sheehan is not untouchable, and Tatis Jr. is the most likely Padres player to cause problems. 

Bet to -125.

How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info

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With the Phillies biting at the Braves’ heels, Atlanta needs every win it can get right now.

The Braves have taken care of business against the Mets through two games, celebrating America’s 250th birthday with a 14-3 demolition Saturday night.

Now they give the ball to Martín Pérez Sunday afternoon against New York’s Nolan McLean seeking a series-clinching win ahead of Monday night’s finale.

After Saturday’s game was on Fox, Sunday’s 12:30 p.m. start will be on NBC and Peacock.

Follow along here as the Braves go for their first three-game win streak since June 5-7.

Game notes

Preview

Lineups

Roster moves

Now 27 years old, Tyler Hardman spent parts of five years with the Somerset Patriots, the New York Yankees’ Double-A affiliate. He debuted there in his second pro season, during the final week of the 2022 campaign and helped them win the Eastern League championship. He ultimately played 313 games there, second-most in franchise history, and he ranks first in hits (254), home runs (67), and RBIs (195).

Throughout his tenure there, he saw many teammates—Austin Wells, Ben Rice, Jasson Domínguez, Spencer Jones, and George Lombard Jr., just to name a few—get promoted while he remained in the Garden State. Yet he persevered, and finally, on May 23rd, he got the call to Triple-A and joined the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. 

“It’s been a lot of fun so far,” Hardman said. “I’ve been able to reconnect with guys I met in spring, same thing with coaches. It’s been a really good change of environment. It’s been fun to learn from guys that have been up higher than Triple-A, been up to the top before.” 

Hardman insists he felt no frustration in being at Double-A for so long.

“It’s always my job to force their hand,” he said. “If there was any doubt or something I could have done better, that’s what I wanted to do. I didn’t want there to be a question if I deserved to be somewhere. Everything was in my control to force their hand.”

Still, he certainly had the numbers to mehrit a promotion. The 27-year-old, right-handed slugger ranked among the Eastern League offensive leaders each year and, at the time of his call-up this season, was first in the league in RBIs (40); second in home runs (13) and total bases (92); tied for third in extra-base hits (21); fourth in slugging (.613); fifth in OPS (.984); tied for seventh in hits (45); and 10th in batting average (.300).  

“That’s part of who I am. I always just want to control what I can,” Hardman said. “Even if you’re hitting .300, you’re still messing up a lot. So I feel like there’s always something you can do better. I was surrounded by a lot of good groups down there, had a lot of good teammates pass through. It was always a good time.”

One might think it’s not a big deal to hold franchise records at Double-A. But Hardman feels otherwise. 

“I think it’s cool,” he said. “Granted, everyone knows you’re not there to set that record. It’s a good reminder that I was at least able to help produce for the team or help the team out. It’s not your first goal there, but once you get something like that, you have that reminder you might have been here a while, but you’re still doing your part to help the team.” 

Now, he wants to do his part to help the RailRiders. So far in 37 games, he is batting .238/.340/.415 (31-for-130) with eight doubles, five home runs, six stolen bases, 15 runs, 17 RBI, and a 98 wRC+. 

For Hardman, he said he always just tries his best to put the ball in play. 

“You can’t be productive if you can’t put the ball in play. That’s been my mantra this year,” Hardman said. “Just do whatever I can to keep it super simple. I’m a big believer that baseball is very much a mental game. The more I can keep it simple and push the ball forward has helped me a lot offensively. And defensively, just keep the confidence up wherever they need me to play.”

Primarily a third baseman, Hardman played first base for much of the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2023. He moved back to third in 2025, but still occasionally plays first.

During the RailRiders’ recent road trip in Indianapolis, Hardman had a two-homer game June 25th at Victory Field. The second of those blasts was the 1o0th of his professional career. He said the key to hitting home runs is to try not to hit them.

“There’s a lot of hitters that I’ve played with that are like that. They have that power that if you just put the ball in play, it’s going to be hit fairly hard, if not harder than the average,” Hardman said. “So if I continue to put the ball forward, the chances of those homers go up substantially. A He lot of times when you try too hard, the baseball doesn’t go in your favor. So the more I can keep it simple and just focus on move the ball forward, the longer ones are going to take care of themselves.”

Finally being at Triple-A means being one step closer to the ultimate goal of reaching the major leagues. Hardman said he is working on his consistency in order to make it to the next level.

“It’s a really long year and you’re going to have waves when you go up and down. You want to ride the high waves as long as you can and you want to keep the low ones as short as possible,” Hardman said. “So just being as consistent as possible. You don’t want to be the streaky hitter that’s good for a week and has to find it again. The hardest part of our sport is being consistent. Just as a whole be the same type of person every day.”

A native of Mission Viejo, California, Hardman was originall selected in the no-longer-existent 37th round of the 2017 MLB Draft by the Colorado Rockies out of Temescal Canyon High School in Lake Elsinore. He didn’t sign and instead went to the University of Oklahoma before being taken by the Yankees in the fifth round of the 2021 Draft.

As a former Sooner, he was thrilled to see the outcome of this year’s College World Series, with Oklahoma taking down the University of North Carolina to win its first championship since 1994.

“It was awesome to see them take the championship home and it was good to see skip and them get some good recognition,” Hardman said. “It was really cool to text them and watch the World Series.”

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals, July 5, 2026, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Pittsburgh Pirates are finishing off their series in the nation’s capital with a matchup against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.

The Pirates will start Bubba Chandler, who struggled in his last start against the Philadelphia Phillies. He pitched 6.1 innings, the longest start of his season, but gave up seven hits and five runs in an 8-0 loss to the Phillies.

The Nats are countering with Miles Mikolas, who is struggling in his first year in the nation’s capital. Mikolas is 2-7 with a 5.44 ERA so far this season for the Nationals. The 37-year-old spent eight seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals and was named to the All-Star team twice, but he isn’t playing at that level this season.

In his last start at Family Park against the Boston Red Sox, Michaelis pitched seven innings, giving up nine hits and six earned runs in a 6-3 loss. Mikolas also pitched 3.1 innings against the Pirates earlier in the season, giving up three hits and three earned runs on April 14 at PNC Park. The Nationals won the game 5-4.

It’s been a unique series for the Pirates against the Nats on the weekend of Independence Day with strange start times, but a win at the end of their time in D.C. will set them up for a strong final push before the All-Star break.

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.

Broadcast: KDKA AM/FM, Peacock

Pitching Matchup: Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.62 ERA) vs. Miles Mikolas (2-7, 5.44 ERA)

BD community, chime off in the comments section below.

The Houston Astros offseason checklist had at the very top: Starting Pitcher, Lefthanded OF Power Bat, Righty Leverage Reliever.

As we approach the trade deadline, those have not changed.

Further adding to this, in his latest Sunday Notebook, longtime MLB reporter and insider Bob Nightengale mentioned the following about the Astros:

The Houston Astros, badly needing an outfielder, are showing strong interest in Mickey Moniak and Jake McCarthy of the Colorado Rockies. They also plan to be in the Tarik Skubal and Sonny Gray sweepstakes.

Nightengale has proven to be very clued in on the Astros throughout their Golden Age, so his reporting on them should be considered very in tune with the club’s thinking and processes.

Moniak, 28, is a former 1st round pick in 2016 drafted out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies. He was brought up at age 22 the first time, and again at age 23 for a brief time as well, and struggled badly. He was traded to the Los Angeles Angels at the deadline in 2022 for Noah Syndergaard.

2023 finally led to a breakthrough season for Moniak, who hit .280 with 14 HR and 45 RBI after being called up May 12. He posted an .802 OPS, but only a .307 OBP because he walked just 9 times in 323 PA.

In 2024 he would regress, batting just .214 with a .266 OBP and .686 OPS. The Angels released him March 25, 2025.

The next day, he signed a 1 year, $1.25M deal with the Colorado Rockies. His first year in Denver, Moniak hit .270 with a career-best 24 HR and 68 RBI. He again posted a strong OPS (.824) despite a weak OBP (.306).

So far this season, Moniak is batting .282 with a .333 OBP and .945 OPS with 15 HR and 37 RBI in 55 games.

Moniak is not known as a strong defender, with limited range and a weaker arm. He would likely be a left fielder on the Astros.

Moniak is signed to a 1 year, $4M contract and still has one more season of arbitration eligibility.

McCarthy, 28, is another former 1st round pick, chosen 39th overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2018 out of University of Virginia. McCarthy is a name that has previously been connected with the Astros, a lefthanded hitter with terrific speed.

McCarthy is in his first season in Colorado, having been acquired from the DBacks in trade on January 10 this year. He’s responded with arguably his best season, batting .307 with a .344 OBP and .862 OPS with 9 HR and 47 RBI. He also has 16 doubles, 5 triples, and 14 stolen bases.

McCarthy first broke through in 2022 in Arizona when he finished 4th in NL ROY voting after batting .283 with a .342 OBP and .769 OPS. In 99 games (354 PA), McCarthy finished with 8 HR, 43 RBI, and 23 SB. His 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed was clocked as the fastest in the majors among right fielders for that season.

His career has been up and down, as the following year his batting regressed to .243 AVG, .318 OBP, .644 OPS, but then he rebounded in 2024 to .285 AVG, .349 OBP, .749 OPS.

He began 2025 in a terrible slump, starting 3×41 before being optioned to Triple-A Reno on April 19. He hit .314 in 49 games for Reno, and was recalled by the big league team again on June 24. He would appear in just 67 games last season, hitting a career-worst .204, leading to his offseason trade to the Rockies.

McCarthy is signed to a 1 year, $1.525M contract, and has 2 more years of arbitration eligibility.

Most Astros fans probably believe that Tarik Skubal will be out of the Astros price range, and that may be true, but the team is still keeping tabs on him. It should be noted that once upon a time, Justin Verlander was considered to be out of the Astros price range, but team owner Jim Crane led the charge for the deal (in fact, he’s led the charge for a Verlander trade twice). So while it would seem unlikely, it shouldn’t be considered impossible.

Skubal, 29, is the 2x reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. He has led the AL in WAR (among pitchers), ERA, ERA+ and FIP each of the past 2 years. He was a Triple Crown winner in 2024.

Skubal underwent surgery May 4 to remove loose bodies from his elbow with a new procedure called the NanoNeedle Scope 2.0. Whereas the nromal return to play time for arthroscopic surgery is 2-3 months, Skubal was able to return in under 6 weeks. He made his final start before surgery on April 29, and returned to the rotation on June 13. In his most recent start against the New York Yankees, he went 6 innings, allowing only 1 ER on 1 hit, struck out 9 and did not walk a batter.

For the season, Skubal is 4-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He has maintained his usual elite command, with a 75/8 K/BB ratio in 65.2 IP.

Skubal is signed to a 1 year, $32M contract, and is a free agent at the end of the season.

Gray, 36, was an offseason target of the Astros that they were unable to acquire when the Boston Red Sox offered top starting pitching prospects Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke to secure the deal from the St. Louis Cardinals.

Gray is having a tremendous season for the underachieving Red Sox, leading the AL with 10 wins against only 1 loss. His .909 win percentage is also tops in the AL. Sporting a 2.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 89.2 IP, Gray’s command continues to be excellent with an 82/23 K/BB rate.

Gray’s contract situation is a little more complicated than the others, but not necessarily in a bad way. As part of the trade to Boston, the Cardinals agreed to pick up $20M of the $31M Gray was owed for this season, making Gray’s effective cost for this season only $11M. He also has a mutual option for next season for $30M. As part of that mutual option, the team can opt out with a $10M buyout. If the player opts out, he gets no buyout.

Texas Rangers lineup for July 5, 2026 against the Detroit Tigers: starting pitchers are Kumar Rocker for the Rangers and Casey Mize for the Tigers.

Texas is looking to win their third straight series and stay above .500. The offense is looking to rebound from yesterday’s unpleasantness. Alejandro Osuna is getting the day off.

The lineup:

Pederson — DH

Jung — 3B

Nimmo — RF

Burger — 1B

Duran — SS

Carter — CF

Smith — LF

Diaz — C

Lopez — 2B

2:30 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are +105 underdogs.

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Ranger Suarez has pitched lights out over the past month, looking like the high-impact starter Boston signed him to be.

With a massive starting pitching advantage, my Red Sox vs. Angels predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the road team — even as -160 favorites.

Who will win Red Sox vs Angels tonight: Boston Red Sox (-160)

Ranger Suarez is in great form. He has posted a 3.58 xERA or better in five consecutive starts, allowing just seven total runs. Suarez has shown more strikeout prowess, recording an impressive 28.8 K% along the way.

He is primed to continue that success against the Los Angeles Angels. They rank 22nd in wOBA and have struck out at the third-highest rate vs. lefties since June 1.

The Boston Red Sox should give Suarez run support against Ryan Johnson, who owns a 7.40 ERA and has allowed 2.22 homers per nine innings.

Playable to -180.

COVERS INTEL: Ranger Suarez ranks in the 96th percentile in Pitcher Run Value, including boasting an average exit velocity that sits in the 90th percentile.

Red Sox vs Angels Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-105)

Suarez has given up only seven earned runs over seven away starts since April 1, and he also possesses a 1.95 ERA over six starts against Bottom-10 teams in batting average against left-handed pitching.

The southpaw is likely to carve up this Angels team, forcing the Red Sox to score in bulk to push this total Over.

While Johnson has been underwhelming overall, he’s allowed just one run over his last 11 innings of work.

Play to -115.

Red Sox vs Angels weather

Temperatures are expected in the low 80s with a slight wind blowing out, giving a small boost to the offenses.

Red Sox vs Angels odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox -160 | Angels +140
• Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (+105) | Angels +1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

Red Sox vs Angels trend

Los Angeles has hit the game total Under in 29 of its last 50 home games (+7.50 units, 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Angels.

How to watch Red Sox vs Angels and game info

Red Sox vs Angels latest injuries

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are heavy favorites against the San Diego Padres, but this spread price is too aggressive.

JP Sears has real contact-risk issues, but Emmet Sheehan is not safe enough to justify laying a run and a half at this number.

Here are my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for July 5.

Who will win Padres vs Dodgers tonight: Padres +1.5 (-114)

COVERS INTEL: JP Sears' expected ERA is currently three runs higher than it's been during the completion of a season in his MLB career.

Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-105)

I made this total 9.1 and see value on the Under down to -135. The reasoning is a continued echo of the sentiment above. 

Sears can do enough to keep the Dodgers from putting up a big number, and the Padres offense won't explode against Sheehan. An Under bet with the best offense in baseball is always a risk, but I project L.A. for 4.5 runs.

On the other side, Sheehan is imperfect with a 10.4% barrel rate allowed, but his 26.1% strikeout rate can keep the Padres from carrying their half.

Padres vs Dodgers weather

Padres vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Padres +184 | Dodgers -210
• Run line: Padres +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5

How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info

Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries

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The MLB draft is creeping ever closer, taking place exactly one week from today. This is our latest version of what the prognosticators believe will be happening. You can find each of the earlier roundups by clicking on the different links before you see how much things have changed.

Mock draft roundup, 1.0

Mock draft roundup, 2.0

As a reminder, the Phillies will not be choosing their first player until #36 because of passing the second luxury tax threshold too many years in a row, which is a good thing.

MLB Pipeline – Jack Radel, RHP – Notre Dame

Radel’s riding fastball now sits at 93-95 mph and touches 98 while holding velocity deep into games. He’s doing a better job of locating a mid-80s slider with depth that has become a solid offering, while his new upper-80s cutter elicits plenty of chases. He lands his 78-82 mph curveball for strikes and mixes in an upper-80s changeup with fade and sink against left-handers.

Though Radel doesn’t have a true plus offering and his pitch shapes are fairly ordinary, he succeeds because of his pitchability and competitiveness. Combining a high release point with good extension gives batters a different look and he pounds the strike zone. He’s a high-floor starter who could fit into the middle of a rotation.

Baseball America – Caden Sorrell, OF – Texas A&M

Sorrell has better physical tools and athleticism than a handful of the hitters who are likely to go in front of him. His 23.9% career strikeout rate means he is probably going in the back of the first round or shortly after it, and the Phillies sound like one of the teams who could take a shot on his power/speed combo and center field profile.

SI – Caden Sorrell, OF – Texas A&M

ESPN – Will Brick, C – Christian Brother HS (Tennessee)

The Phillies love prep athletic-testing standouts at premium positions and Brick fits that profile while being young for the class after reclassifying from 2027. He’s a catcher/shortstop tweener with 25-plus homer upside and feel to get to it in games.

Mets lineup

Francisco Lindor – SS
Juan Soto – DH
Bo Bichette – 3B
Mark Vientos – 1B
Carson Benge – RF
Tyrone Taylor – LF
A.J. Ewing – CF
Luis Torrens – C
Brett Baty – 2B

SP: Nolan McLean – RHP

Braves lineup

Drake Baldwin – C
Ozzie Albies – 2B
Matt Olson – 1B
Michael Harris – CF
Mauricio Dubon – LF
Dominic Smith – DH
Austin Riley – 3B
Mike Yastrzemski – RF
Jim Jarvis – SS

SP: Martin Perez – LHP

Broadcast info

First pitch: 12:30 PM ET
TV: NBC, Peacock
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

Across the last century of baseball, few players fit their era quite as well as Rich “Goose” Gossage. With a high-octane fastball and an intimidating, occasionally hirsute look on the mound, he rose to prominence in the game as the concept of a capable bullpen was undergoing a revolution, and in those days of firemen and multi-inning relief aces, Goose stood out as one of the best. Among the first big-ticket names in free agency as well, Gossage signed with the Yankees as they were coming off a championship in 1977 and then helped them win another in ’78.

Richard Michael “Goose” Gossage
Born: July 5, 1951 (Colorado Springs, CO)
Yankees Tenure: 1978-83, 1989

Before he was Goose, he was simply Rick to his family. Growing up as the fifth of six children, Gossage formed a close relationship with his father, Jack, who worked as a landscaper by trade and spent much of his free time prospecting for gold after catching a case of gold fever.

Gossage attended Wasson High School in Colorado Springs, where he starred in both baseball and basketball. During his junior year, tragedy struck when his father passed away. A firm believer in his son’s powerful right arm, Jack Gossage allegedly insisted from an early age that Rick would someday pitch in the major leagues. If true, it was a prediction that proved prophetic or, at the very least, one spoken into existence.

Gossage’s path to the majors began right out of high school when the White Sox selected him in the ninth round of the 1970 MLB Draft. He impressed enough that summer to finish the season in Class A. Gossage soaked up advice and formed close bonds with his coaches as he adjusted to professional baseball and dedicated himself to the game.

In 1971, at just 19 years old, Gossage found himself in the starting rotation at the Class A level. It was the season that put Gossage on the map as he was named the Topps Midwest League Player of the Year. He earned the honor by winning 18 games while posting a 1.83 ERA with 149 strikeouts across 187 innings.

Chicago was impressed enough to invite Gossage to spring training before the 1972 season. It was there that the legendary nickname was born when teammate Tom Bradley told Gossage he looked like a goose while peering in for the catcher’s signs. The nickname stuck. Before ever throwing a major league pitch, the legend of Goose Gossage was born, and it would become the name baseball fans knew him by for the rest of his life.

Gossage was so impressive with an upper-90s fastball that could touch triple digits that he broke camp with the big league club. In his rookie season, Gossage went 7-1 with a 4.28 ERA, but he was still learning to harness his electric arm. That lack of command resulted in him averaging nearly five walks per nine innings. In many ways, he looked like the real-life version of Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn. Those command issues led to Gossage bouncing between the major and minor leagues over his first few professional seasons.

Then, in 1975, everything clicked. Coincidentally, it was also the same season Major League Baseball adopted the modern save rule, forever linking one of the game’s most intimidating relievers with the birth of the statistic that would help define his Hall of Fame career and later become one of his most frequent subjects of criticism.

At 23 years old, Gossage made his first All-Star team. He finished the season with a 1.84 ERA, 26 saves, and 141.2 innings pitched while striking out 151 batters. Following that breakout campaign, the White Sox hoped to maximize Gossage’s value by converting him into a starting pitcher for the 1976 season. In the rotation, Gossage made his second straight All-Star team despite pitching for a club that lost 97 games. Across 29 starts, he went 9-17 with a 3.94 ERA over 224.0 innings.

Prior to the start of the 1977 season, Gossage was traded alongside Terry Forster to the Pittsburgh Pirates for outfielder Richie Zisk and pitcher Silvio Martínez. Gossage never enjoyed the rhythm of being a starting pitcher and gladly welcomed a return to the bullpen.

The move paid immediate dividends. The 1977 season proved to be one of Gossage’s best, and it came during his walk year. He recorded 26 saves with a 1.62 ERA while striking out 151 batters in 133 innings. After the season, the Pirates were unable to reach an agreement with Gossage, making him the crown jewel of the free-agent market.

The Yankees were fresh off a World Series championship and already had the reigning Cy Young Award winner, Sparky Lyle, anchoring the bullpen. However, never one to sit on his wallet, George Steinbrenner wanted another splash, and he decided Gossage was the ticket. As teammate Graig Nettles said, Sparky “went from Cy Young to Sayonara.” The two sides agreed to a six-year contract on November 22, 1977.

After a rocky start in pinstripes, much like the rest of the club, Gossage and the Yankees turned the summer of 1978 into one for the ages. At their lowest point, the Yankees trailed the Red Sox by 14.5 games. New York completed one of baseball’s greatest comebacks, and it was Gossage who induced Carl Yastrzemski to pop up to Graig Nettles for the final out of the legendary one-game playoff, completing one of the greatest collapses and comebacks in baseball history.

The Yankees went on to claim the World Series title, the only World Series championship Gossage would win as a player. The following season was one Yankees fans would rather forget. Still reeling from the untimely death of Thurman Munson, the club also lost Gossage for nearly three months after he tore ligaments in his thumb during a clubhouse fight with teammate Cliff Johnson. The Yankees missed the postseason in what became the definition of a lost season.

The Yankees and a healthy Gossage rebounded in 1980. Gossage recorded a career-high 33 saves and was selected to his fifth All-Star team. Everything appeared to be going according to plan until George Brett sent the Yankees home with a home run off Gossage in the American League Championship Series.

That defeat proved to be a turning point in Gossage’s relationship with the organization. As a way to needle Steinbrenner, Gossage grew his now infamous Fu Manchu mustache in protest of the Yankees’ facial hair policy.

Gossage continued to be a force while sporting the new look. Over the final three years of his contract, he recorded 72 more saves and earned All-Star selections in both 1981 and 1982. Despite the success, the relationship with Steinbrenner continued to deteriorate. Gossage famously referred to the owner as “the fat man upstairs,” and he also maintained a strained relationship with manager Billy Martin.

New York tried to re-sign Gossage after his contract expired following the 1983 season, but the veteran decided his time in Yankees management had run its course and instead signed with the Padres. During his age-32 and age-33 seasons, Gossage made the All-Star team both years and helped San Diego reach the 1984 World Series, where the Padres fell to the Tigers.

Gossage spent four seasons on the West Coast before the Padres traded him, along with Ray Hayward, to the Chicago Cubs for Mike Brumley and Keith Moreland. He spent the 1988 season on the North Side, completing a tour of both sides of Chicago. Prior to the 1989 season, the 37-year-old Gossage signed with the San Francisco Giants. That August, he was placed on waivers, and the Yankees successfully claimed him.

His return gave Gossage seven seasons in pinstripes. During his final stint in New York, he appeared in 11 games and posted a 3.77 ERA.

It seemed to most that this would be it for Gossage, but he opted to pitch professionally in Japan in 1990 before returning to the majors for four more seasons. Those final years included one with the Rangers, two with the Athletics, and the final campaign of his career with the Mariners in 1994.

In 2008, Gossage received baseball’s highest honor when he was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The voters made him wait eight ballots before finally enshrining him in Cooperstown.

Whether you hate his old-school, unfiltered vocabulary or love his tough-guy mentality, I’d bet he probably feels the same way about you. Like him or not, there is no denying Gossage remains one of the greatest relief pitchers ever to wear Yankee pinstripes and one of the original great closers in baseball history.

Happy birthday, Goose.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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There's value all across the board this afternoon, and I found three hitters I love to leave the yard.

I break down my favorite home run predictions and MLB player props below.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Jac Caglianone	+377
Andrew Vaughn	+760
Carson Kelly	+860
💲Today's HR parlay	+37907

Home run pick: Jac Caglianone (+377)

A man who only seems to generate hard-hit balls is Kansas City Royals up and coming superstar Jac Caglianone. Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he's produced a 68.6% hard-hit rate and a 23% barrel rate. Over his last 30 plate appearances, those numbers have climbed to a 73.68% hard-hit rate and a 26.32% barrel rate.

Caglianone draws Philadelphia Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, who owns a 6.23 ERA against the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced. During that span, he has also allowed a 46% hard-hit rate, a 13.5% barrel rate, and a 70.2% elevation rate. Those lefties have generated a .583 xSLG and a .332 xwOBA.

The Royals slugger has excellent arsenal coverage against Nola's subpar pitch mix, making this a great spot for the young fella to take the veteran deep this afternoon.

• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Peacock

Home run pick: Andrew Vaughn (+760)

Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Andrew Vaughn finds himself in a boom spot against Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Eduardo Rodríguez. Vaughn enters Sunday with an elite Batters-Box rating while covering 80% of Rodríguez's subpar pitch mix.

The Brewers slugger has been tearing up left-handers all season. Over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws, he owns a .408 batting average, .714 slugging percentage, and 1.231 OPS, while generating a 48.8% hard-hit rate.

On the other side, Rodríguez has been torched by right-handed hitters. On the road against them, he is allowing a staggering 77.3% elevation rate and nearly a 40% hard-hit rate. Across the last 90 batted balls he has allowed to righties, they own a .599 xSLG and .356 xwOBA.

We are offered some pretty brutal home run prices regularly, but if +760 does not get your mouth watering against a pitcher allowing the ball to be elevated nearly 80% of the time, while the hitter you are backing is consistently making loud contact, this market is probably not for you.

• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Peacock

Home run pick: Carson Kelly (+860)

Yet another price I could not ignore this afternoon, Chicago Cubs catcher Carson Kelly to go bye-bye at nearly 9/1. Kelly carries an elite Batters-Box rating this evening, covering 80% of Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore's below-average pitch mix.

Kelly has crushed left-handed pitching this season while consistently making hard contact. Over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws, he owns a .364 batting average, .618 slugging percentage, and 1.045 OPS, while generating a 46% hard-hit rate and 10.6% barrel rate.

Liberatore has struggled against right-handed hitters all season. Away from home, he has allowed them to elevate the ball 67.1% of the time while giving up a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Over the last 60 right-handed batters he has faced, opponents are elevating the ball 72.7% of the time, producing a 41% hard-hit rate and a massive 20.4% barrel rate.

They also own an .855 expected slugging percentage and .433 expected wOBA during that stretch. Sure, Kelly only has four nukes on the season, but with the amount of hard contact he has generated, he probably should have more.

• Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Peacock

Today’s HR parlay

Jac Caglianone	Bet Now +37907
Andrew Vaughn
Carson Kelly

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Yankees needed an emergency starter on Saturday in the wake of Carlos Rodón’s return to the IL—Brendan Beck was the man tapped to do it, and he struggled through 3.2 innings in an eventual 11-4 loss to the Twins. On Sunday morning, the Yankees made the expected move, optioning Beck back to Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre. Angel Chivilli has been recalled in a corresponding swap as the Yankees search for some extra bullpen help.

Chivilli, who debuted with the Rockies at just 21 years old in 2024, made a brief cameo with the Yankees this April, appearing in two games. Chivilli hit the 15-day IL on April 25th with right shoulder discomfort, returning on June 11th and remaining in Scranton. He has pitched to a 1.08 ERA across 12 appearances with the RailRiders this season.

It’s unlikely too many will remember this minor transaction from the offseason, but Chivilli was traded last winter for first baseman T.J. Rumfield, who has enjoyed a breakout rookie campaign in Colorado. The Yankees would certainly like the young right-hander to eventually emerge as a useful option for a bullpen—they’re big fans of his stuff, particularly his changeup, which has flashed elite swing-and-miss potential. But as far as the here-and-now, he’s probably going to be deployed in low-leverage spots—as he did when he popped up earlier in the season.

It doesn’t always feel like it, but Yankees relievers have pitched to a 3.15 ERA this season, which ranks second in MLB behind the Braves. In terms of fWAR, the core grades out seventh in the league. Some individual relievers have struggled, however—Camilo Doval has a 4.81 ERA on the season, and allowed four runs in the eighth inning on Saturday.