Category: MLB

Let’s start with the good news, because there is some.

Garrett Crochet threw a live BP this weekend and is traveling with the team to New York. Willson Contreras DHed in the finale after a hand injury that scared everyone—he’s healthy enough to swing a bat, even if nobody’s declaring him fully healthy yet. Ceddanne Rafaela was back in the lineup for the Cubs series. Tanner Houck made it back to the mound in Game 162. Those are real things.

Now the rest of it.

Mickey Gasper is dealing with a significant biceps injury from Friday’s doubleheader and is almost certainly not going to be available for the Wild Card Series. Tyron Guerrero—one of the four bullpen locks Boston was counting on in October—is also banged up and may not pitch again until next year. Eli White’s foot injury is in fact season-ending, having had Lisfranc surgery last week. Justin Slaten is out. Masataka Yoshida is out (though we’ve known that). The enigma that is Curtis Mead is down in Fort Myers, and nobody seems to know what his actual status is.

Garrett Crochet will be the only player down in Fort Myers joining the Red Sox on their trip to New York.

No Curtis Mead or Johan Oviedo. pic.twitter.com/IyvP741qDL

— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) September 27, 2026

That’s a utility man who provides quality at-bats against right-handed pitching, a back-end bullpen arm, a speedy outfielder, a late-inning reliever, a left-handed power bat, and a middle infielder—all gone or in serious doubt for a three-game series that starts Tuesday at 8.

Not to make excuses for this team. But damn. These guys are hurt.

The pitching is legit

Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez will start in some order. Chad Tracy says the current sequencing against Cleveland didn’t give anything away, and maybe that’s true. What matters is that all three are healthy and available, and that’s more than a lot of teams can say.

Brayan Bello and Jake Bennett give Boston a pair of genuine multi-inning options out of the bullpen. Bennett’s numbers against the Yankees this year—2-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 10 Ks—can’t be ignored even if he’ll be pitching out of the pen against them. Those two going two or three innings in the middle of a game gives the starters a real off-ramp. This is also where Garrett Crochet could end up—bulk innings behind your main starters to get to your true back bullpen weapons in Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman.

The back end hinges on Chapman. He last pitched on the 23rd—locking down three Ks and the save against the Guardians in a 1-0 win—but the question is whether a full week off means he comes back at his usual level. Nobody knows the answer until he’s on the mound.

Crochet and Houck: the upside bets

Houck back on the mound in Game 162 is the kind of moment you wanted to see. He wasn’t sharp, but he hasn’t pitched in a Major League game since July 2025—some rust is expected. It’s not clear whether he’ll make the postseason roster, but four solid rehab outings and then a real appearance in a real game is enough in my book to use him some time in the next two days. He’s not at his best, but compared to other options like Jovani Moran or Alec Gamboa, a healthy Houck in a short series could be a legitimate weapon.

We haven’t seen Garrett Crochet pitch at all, but he’s determined to make an impact. He’s the most talented arm on the Red Sox and one of the best pitchers in the world. It would be foolish to count someone like him out.

The position player math

Contreras DHing in the finale is the good news we all needed. The hand is healthy enough to swing. Whether he can handle the rigors of a full Wild Card series is a different question, but he’s available.

Rafaela back in the outfield means Boston’s defense gets considerably better (sorry not sorry to Jahmai Jones and/or Nate Eaton). He changes that center field situation completely, and in a series at Yankee Stadium with Max Fried and Carlos Rodón likely on the hill, having an elite defender out there to cut down extra-base hits matters more than people will think.

The Gasper loss hurts the bench big time. Tracy loved having him available against tough righties. Hell, Tracy loved him more than Connor Wong, who really felt like he was on the outs with the way Evil Mickey was producing. With Gasper out, Jahmai Jones becomes even more important as a right-handed option to deploy against Fried or Rodón—and Boston will almost certainly see both of them. Not ideal, but Jones knows what his job is.

The bottom line

This roster is more battered than anyone would like going into a playoff series. The bullpen without a healthy Guerrero and with Chapman still proving he’s back to his expected level is thinner than the numbers suggested it would be a month ago. But Houck and Crochet could give the relief corps real upside if everything breaks right.

What wins this series isn’t going to be one player. It’s going to be Bello throwing three innings in the middle of a tight game, Bennett navigating a lefty-heavy Yankees lineup, Roman Anthony continuing to do what he’s done over the past 10 days (aka actually see the ball and put it in play), and Adley Rutschman being Adley Rutschman when it counts.

It’s going to be a total team effort or it’s not going to happen. That’s the honest take. No excuses, even with the sizable list of banged up players. The real season begins now.

The thing about chasing an object is that if it matches your speed, there is really nothing you can do. The New York Yankees learned this hard lesson down the stretch when any goals they had of running down the Rays to at least make it a competitive fight down the stretch fell flat — not because the Yankees underwhelmed in the final month of the season. In fact, one could hardly ask for more out of this team given the obstacles it had to face as the Rays left nothing to chance. Despite winning 15 of 23 games in September, the Yankees couldn’t gain a game on the Rays, who won 16 of 24 to wrap up their season.

What looked like the likeliest scenario for quite some time now, given the state of the other two divisions in the American League, has come to pass. The Yankees, who are the second-best team in the AL, will have to go through the most difficult of schedules to make it out of their league for the second time in the past three seasons. A three-game Wild Card round against the feisty Boston Red Sox and all the potential pitfalls a short series can bring await—one with a feeling of déjà vu, happening for the second straight season. Then, if they make it out, it’s a date with the Rays while the AL Central and AL West clubs battle it out on the inferior side of the bracket.

It hasn’t been the smoothest ride to get to this point, and based on how Brian Cashman has polled all year long, it’s safe to say expectations were not met — even if there are obvious caveats beyond his control as to why the Yankees are exactly where they are. Early in the season, when Cashman polled at 41 percent, the Yankees were battling with the Rays for the AL East title — but if you polled most fans, you would’ve been hard-pressed to find many who bought the Rays as a 99-win team. Frankly, there are probably those who, even now, don’t buy them at that level even now, but that’s an entirely separate conversation to have in the analysis of the gap between these two clubs, particularly at full strength. Cashman’s approval rating nosedived as did the Yankees’ chances of winning this division, partially due to questionable moves but overwhelmingly due to absences that all the money in the world couldn’t plan for.

For three months between June and August, the Yankees put up a wRC+ below league average, clearly struggling in the absence of the best hitter in the sport. The deadline acquisition of Luis Garcia Jr. in particular gave the offense a boost as he delivered an .842 OPS in August — even that wasn’t enough to take the team’s line over 100, coming in with a 96 wRC+ for the month.

In September, though, the offense came through with a 104 wRC+ that may not seem like much, but with this team’s rotation, it’s how you go about winning 15 of 23 games. All of this after starting off the month with the bad news of yet another Trent Grisham hamstring injury, this one keeping him out for the rest of the regular season. Spencer Jones continues to defy the laws of what can be described as sensible production coming with obscene strikeout rates, with a 110 wRC+ on the month despite a strikeout rate above 38 percent.

While Aaron Judge’s brief return before getting injured again helps, this September improvement boils down primarily to the work of Ben Rice, who, after a disappointing summer — given the high bar he set for himself — came alive in a big way. Still, if you’re wondering about the changes in impact from Rice with and without a fully stocked lineup, the Yankees first baseman delivered 21 RBI with seven homers in 24 games in May. The same Rice then hit six homers in 22 games this past month and only drove in 11. Those 11 RBI did not lead the team, with the distinction left to George Lombard Jr., who drove in 16 with five homers, providing more power than he had in the previous month. Back to the deadline acquisitions, though, as Garcia cooled off, Heliot Ramos finally showed up, proving a worthy presence in the lineup, specifically against left-handed pitchers.

It was business as usual for this ultra-talented staff, with Cam Schlittler wrapping up a likely Cy Young campaign with yet another sub-2.00 ERA month. Carlos Rodón was nearly as dominant as Schlittler, with both kind of showing up Max Fried, who had a solid September, and, lastly, Will Warren impressing; the only one who had more than his fair share of issues was Gerrit Cole. But looking forward to the Wild Card round in which he’ll start the third game, if needed, Cole impressed in his final regular-season start against the Rays.

About the Wild Card round, the Yankees already announced their starters versus Boston, with Schlittler going in game 1, followed by Fried and lastly Cole. While Boston hasn’t officially announced their starters, expectations are that Sonny Gray, the AL leader in wins this season with 18, will take the ball for Game 1 and likely be followed by left-hander Payton Tolle.

When it comes to transactions, not a lot stood out. With a plethora of utility options, the Yankees chose to designate Oswaldo Cabrera for assignment when they had to open up a 40-man spot for Clarke Schmidt. Cabrera was picked up by the Reds and was one of two players to leave the Yankees this month, alongside righty Chase Hampton — picked up by the Nats (and recently discarded) after being DFA’d early in the month. Hampton didn’t appear in the bigs for the Yankees.

It’s a simple yet loaded question whether you approve of Cashman’s job in September, depending on how much emphasis you want to give to certain merits and demerits in how the Yankees have been managed this season. In many ways, the déjà vu doesn’t come strictly from a playoff series against the Red Sox. It’s more so from yet another second-place finish in the AL East against a team widely regarded as inferior to the Yankees before the start of the season.

So with the regular season officially over and the playoffs immediately ahead, do you approve of Brian Cashman? As always, there’s a lot to factor into a “yes” or a “no,” and you might feel like your answer is more of a soft “yes” or “no” than a stamp of approval or a sharp rebuke. However, the binary question is the best way to get a direct read on fans’ thoughts.

Vote in the poll below and let us know! We’ll revisit the results at the end of October.

Note: This is the same poll that is currently appearing on the Feed, so if you’ve voted there, that should already be counted.

Another installment of Yankees-Red Sox in October? Yes, please! 

For the seventh time, these familiar rivals meet in the playoffs and, if the past is any indication, we’re due for more history, another slice of perma-angst for at least one fanbase, and maybe a new pejorative nickname or two. 

In this best-of-three AL Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium, both teams must cope with injuries to huge hitters. Will Aaron Judge make the Yankee roster? Willson Contreras returned to the Red Sox lineup Sunday after missing eight games, but he’s got a bruised right hand that could hinder his thump.

Runs could be at a premium, because both teams have sharp pitching staffs. The Yanks (93-68) had the best starter ERA in baseball and the Red Sox (87-75) recorded the best bullpen ERA.

It may all come down to who melts in the October cauldron. Or who soars.

Each team has won three of the previous postseason meetings, so perhaps we can consider this a "Game 7" scenario? And nothing interesting ever happens in a Game 7, right? 

It’s so on. 

WHAT THE YANKEES HAVE GOING FOR THEM

Judge usually leads this department, but he’s iffy with a calf injury. He’s pledged to be on the roster, but even if he is, can he be impactful? 

With that swirling, the Yanks’ strength is clearly their starting rotation, led by Game 1 starter Cam Schlittler, the Massachusetts kid who shreds the Sox. You can expect the Twit-wits of New England to seethe at him on social media, but Schlittler seems built to handle online smoke. 

And he can certainly handle the mound. Schlittler, who will win the AL Cy Young Award after an amazing regular season, allowed one run or fewer in 21 of his 33 starts and became the fourth Yankee starter to finish a season with a sub-2.00 ERA (1.95). Over his last nine starts, he pitched to a 1.17 ERA.

Schlittler had a 0.74 ERA against Boston in four starts this season, and you might remember a certain October outing last year in which he was overpowering for eight shutout innings as the Yanks dispatched the Sox in a winner-take-all Game 3. 

The Yanks weighed whether Schlittler should start the first or second game — overthink much, Yankee braintrust? — before making the obvious choice. They’re loaded in Game 2, too, when Max Fried (2.80 ERA in 20 starts) goes. 

If Game 3 is necessary, Gerrit Cole will start. Cole has had some blips this season. But he’s been good his last two starts. Plus, it’s Gerrit Cole. 

The rotation is backed by a bullpen that had a strong regular season as Paul Blackburn (1.69 ERA) and Brent Headrick (2.18) emerged behind closer David Bednar. Will Warren will move from the rotation to the bullpen and could provide key length. Going into Game 1, the Yanks will have had three consecutive days off, thanks to last weekend’s Nor’easter, and the rest might mitigate some of the relief workload concerns that have bloomed late. 

With Judge only playing 66 games, Ben Rice (41 homers, .897 OPS) was the key cog in an offense that was eighth in runs per game (4.59). 

WHAT THE RED SOX HAVE GOING FOR THEM

Boston has both the best bullpen in baseball by ERA (3.00) and enough quality starters — Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez — to make things very difficult for the Yankees. 

The Yankees never seemed to know what to do with Gray when he was a Yankee from 2017-18, but he’s been terrific everywhere else and tied for the MLB lead with 18 wins this year and had a 2.72 ERA. The mustachioed Tolle, a lefty who pitches with a nifty joie de vivre, allowed one run and four hits over 13 innings in two starts against the Yanks. Suarez, another lefty, had a 3.22 ERA during the regular season, but the Yankees bashed him (6.06 ERA in three outings).

Without Judge, the Yanks’ lineup tilts too left-handed, which theoretically should make them vulnerable to lefty starters. But they were 35-20 in games started by a left-hander. 

The Boston rotation usually features Garrett Crochet, who put the Yankees on the brink of a quick exit last October with a masterful Game 1 performance. But after an injury-plagued year, he won’t start in this series. Problem is, he could be part of the Sox bullpen arsenal, which is already lethal. 

Ageless closer Aroldis Chapman (remember him?) is still dishing heat and hard looks. He had 35 saves, a 1.92 ERA and a 12.4 K/9. Garrett Whitlock, whom the Sox plucked from the Yankees in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, has a 1.72 ERA. The Red Sox bullpen gave up the fewest home runs of any relief corps in the majors this year.

THE YANKEES WILL WIN THE SERIES IF…

Their rotation continues to thrive and their power plays. The Yankees hit 223 home runs during the regular season, second in MLB to only the Houston Astros, despite missing Judge for so long. Home runs can dwindle in October, but they can also wreck a series, and if Rice slugs, watch out. If he doesn’t, there were 10 other Yankees who hit double-digit home runs this season and that doesn’t include Luis García Jr., who hit seven of his 30 with the Yanks after a deadline trade from Washington. 

Could Giancarlo Stanton finally return from injury and hit a big October laser? He’s done it before. 

Of course, as any Yankee fan will tell you, the pinstriped offense sometimes sputters if the ball isn’t soaring out of the park. But they’re capable of the speed game, too, after finishing sixth in stolen bases. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. had 41 steals and José Caballero added 34, so perhaps they can manufacture runs if their lightning sags.

THE RED SOX WILL WIN THE SERIES IF…

Yanks-Sox is fertile ground for a mega breakout (see Schlittler, Cam, from last October) and one of the most talented players on either team is Roman Anthony, the 22-year-old Red Sox outfielder. He’s had an injury-marred season but this might be his chance. Anthony had a 1.008 OPS over his final eight games. What if he goes bonkers at the Stadium? 

As noted, the Red Sox can really pitch. And they play strong defense, too — they were sixth-best in Baseball Savant’s Fielding Run Value. Can they score enough, though, especially if their best hitter, Contreras (.901 OPS) is compromised? Will Anthony help provide the answer? 

PREDICTION

Yankees in three. 

This is rivalry business, so there’s little chance of a sweep. Each team will face the brink, but the Yankees will shove the Red Sox over it by, well, shoving. Pitching, we mean.

The Red Sox averaged the second-fewest runs (4.25) of any playoff team and they’ll have a hard time plating enough against the Yanks.

The Yankees are comfortable at the Stadium, where they were 46-34 this season and 4-2 against the Red Sox, including winning three of four in late August.

Is that real intel or real insignificant? We’ll see, but it’s compelling that the Yankees blew out the Sox twice in that series and also won a 1-0 game that was started by, you guessed it — Schlittler.

The Cincinnati Reds just wrapped up the 21st regular season since the above note was penned by the then-new ownership group. It was a five-point plan built on the back of nebulous subjectivity aside from the one concrete declaration emboldened at the top – We will bring championship baseball to Cincinnati.

After 21 seasons, there are only two ways with which you can grade that singular, objective declaration. The ownership group, spearheaded by the Castellini family, is either officially lying, or officially a failure.

By no definition of championship baseball have they approached achieving said goal. Even if you squint, reduce the assertion to the divisional level, and parse through the annals of baseball history, you need to go back fourteen seasons to even find the Reds atop their own. There have been no World Series appearances, let alone titles. There have been no National League Championship Series claimed, and zero appearances there. They have not won a playoff series since back in 1995, which also coincides with the last time the team actually won a home playoff game in their own park.

Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in Cincinnati in 31 years. Frank Viola turned 66 years old this year, and that 66 year old man played on the team that last won a playoff game in Cincinnati – in a stadium that was reduced to rubble 25 years ago.

This is not rekindling the Reds Nation spirit. This is the literal definition of resting while we are unhappy.

They have built one of the least respected organizations in baseball.

Sell the team, Bob and Phil.

Astros fans, after 162 games, your team is once again the champion of the American League West.

So how are you feeling? Excited? Relieved? Optimistic? Still concerned? Or are you simply hopeful that this team has another October run left in it?

Whatever your answer, here’s what matters most:

They’re in.

And once you’re in, you have a chance.

It certainly wasn’t pretty. This Astros team clawed, scratched, fought and struggled its way to the finish line. There were times when they looked exhausted. There were times when the pitching staff appeared to be running on fumes. There were stretches when the offense couldn’t find consistency and moments when it looked like all the energy required to dig out of another early-season hole had finally caught up with them.

But when they absolutely had to get it done, they did.

The Houston Astros are American League West champions.

Now the question changes. Can they get hot? Can they go on another October run? Can they somehow add another chapter to this incredible Golden Era of Astros baseball?

I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.

Get In and See What Happens

The Astros aren’t entering the postseason as some flawless juggernaut. Far from it.

We’ve spent an entire season talking about their shortcomings. The roster construction. The revolving door in the outfield. The injuries. The inconsistent starting pitching. A bullpen that carried an enormous workload and at times looked completely out of gas.

None of those concerns suddenly disappear because Houston won the division, but neither does everything this team accomplished.

They were knocked down repeatedly and kept getting back up. They dug themselves another enormous hole and somehow climbed out of it. They reached the finish line battered and bruised, but they reached it as division champions.

There’s something to be said for that, and now none of the struggles that came before matter.

It’s October.

You Have the MVP

Here’s a pretty good place to start if you’re searching for reasons to believe:

The Astros have the American League Most Valuable Player. Yordan Alvarez has been the centerpiece of this offense all season, and now he gets the opportunity to do it on baseball’s biggest stage.

In October, one superstar can change a series. One swing can change a game. One hot hitter can carry an entire lineup for a week. The Astros have that guy.

The rest of the offense doesn’t need to suddenly become the greatest lineup in baseball. It just needs to continue doing enough around Yordan to score runs and give this team an opportunity to win.

That’s what they’ve done for much of the season. Now they need to do it when the games matter most.

It All Comes Down to Pitching

For all the discussion about the offense, I believe Houston’s postseason fate ultimately comes down to one thing: Pitching.

Which starting pitchers can Joe Espada trust? Who can give him five, six or seven quality innings? Who has the ability to take the baseball in a postseason game and dominate? Perhaps most importantly, which bullpen arms still have enough left in the tank?

The last question is the one that concerns me most.

The Astros asked an enormous amount from their bullpen this season. Those relievers were forced to cover innings when starters couldn’t get deep into games, and they helped keep this season alive while Houston fought its way back into contention. Now they’re being asked for more.

Postseason baseball magnifies the importance of every bullpen decision. Managers are quicker to pull starters. Matchups become more important. High-leverage relievers can be asked to pitch on consecutive days, and sometimes the difference between advancing and going home comes down to which bullpen can record the final nine outs.

Houston doesn’t need every reliever to suddenly become dominant, but it needs enough of them.

Give This Team Its Credit

I’ve been critical of this team throughout the season. I’ve questioned the roster. I’ve questioned the front office. I’ve questioned whether the bullpen could survive its workload and whether the Astros had enough left in the tank to finish the job. Those questions were fair.

But so is giving this team credit now. I’m proud of the fight they’ve shown. I’m proud of the veteran leadership that helped get them here. I’m proud of the way this group refused to allow its season to disappear when it easily could have.

Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez and the other veterans in that clubhouse know what October baseball feels like. They know what it takes to win when every pitch matters. That experience means something now.

Joe Espada deserves credit, too.

He took an imperfect roster, navigated injuries, survived an inconsistent rotation and an overworked bullpen, and somehow got this team across the finish line as division champions.

That’s an accomplishment.

Why Not the Astros?

Do I think this is the best Astros team we’ve seen during this Golden Era? No. Do I think they’re entering October without legitimate concerns? Absolutely not.

But that’s not the question anymore. The question is whether they’re good enough to win a postseason series. Then another. And maybe another.

There’s a part of me that looks at the experience in this clubhouse, the presence of the American League MVP and everything this team survived just to get here and believes they have enough to at least make another run at the American League Championship Series.

After that? Who knows?

That’s the beauty of postseason baseball.

You don’t have to dominate for six months anymore. You have to be better than the team in the other dugout for a few days. The Astros survived 162 games. They won the American League West. They gave themselves a chance.

Now let’s find out if there’s one more October run left in this Golden Era of Houston Astros baseball.

Astros fans, how are you feeling?

Are you simply happy they survived and got in? Do you believe this team can make a run to the ALCS, or do you think they have enough left to go even further?

October is here.

Why not the Astros?

It is time for our predictions for the Wild Card Series. Yes, we will have Game Threads. One thread a day, unless they run too long. The games are Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (if needed).

Pick your winner in each of the three series and the number of games. And guess the total number of runs scored in all the games to be used as a tie-breaker.

Throw in any other predictions you would like to make.

The Wild Card Series start tomorrow. We have:

White Sox @ Houston. All their games are 5:00 Eastern starts. Both teams list TBD as starters. Former Jays Anthony Kay Seranthony Dominguez and Randal Grichuk play for the White Sox. Daulton Varsho is on the IL.

Red Sox @ Yankees. Their games are all 8:00 Eastern starts. Schlittler starts for the Yankees. TBD listed for the Red Sox. Can I pick both to lose? IKF plays for the Red Sox.

Phillies @ Braves. Their games are 2:00 Eastern starts. Chris Sale starts for the Braves. TBD for Padres. Tim Mayza plays for the Phillies. Lane Thomas is on the IL for the Braves.

Cubs @ Padres: Their games are 10:00 Eastern starts. Michael King starts for the Padres. TBD is listed for the Cubs. Matthew Boyd and Kevin Gausman play for the Cubs. Ty France, Robbie Ray and Will Wagner (on the IL) play for the Padres.

My picks?

Astros in 3.

Red Sox in 3, because someone has to to win and I’d be hit by lightening if I even picked the Yankees.

Braves in 2.

Cubs in 2, because I want to see Kevin Gausman in the World Series.

And lets go with 64 total runs.

Your turn.

Phillies turn to Jesús Luzardo in Game 1 despite not knowing ‘what to expect' originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

ATLANTA — Three weeks ago, Jesús Luzardo needed 109 pitches to shut out the Atlanta Braves. On Tuesday, the Phillies won’t know how many they’ll be able to ask of him.

In a best-of-three National League Wild Card Series against Chris Sale and the Braves, Philadelphia has an opportunity to steal Game 1 with Cristopher Sánchez lined up for Game 2 and Aaron Nola working toward a potential Game 3.

But after needing every last game of the regular season to clinch its fifth consecutive postseason berth, the Phillies have had to get creative with their pitching staff.

They arrived at Truist Park for Monday’s workout without an announced Game 1 starter. No pitcher was scheduled to speak afterward, an unusual arrangement on the eve of a postseason series.

Then interim manager Don Mattingly sat down at the podium and delivered the answer everyone had been waiting for.

“Zeus,” he said.

“I should say open,” he quickly clarified.

Luzardo will take the ball for his first start since Sept. 7, when he threw the first complete game of his career against these same Braves. How long he stays on the mound is another question.

“I don’t think we really know what to expect,” Mattingly said. “Been down a while. Pitched an inning, albeit short, yesterday. We kind of wanted to get, hoped to get the game off on a good foot, a good note, and see where it goes.”

Sunday’s appearance gave the Phillies enough reason to believe Luzardo was ready for the assignment, even if it lasted considerably less time than anyone could have anticipated.

The left-hander had been sidelined by shoulder inflammation since his Labor Day shutout and hadn’t faced live hitters in nearly three weeks. The Phillies initially wanted him to throw a simulated game Saturday, but doing so would have made him unavailable for Sunday’s must-win regular-season finale.

Instead, they kept him available out of the bullpen. When Mattingly called on him against Tampa Bay, Luzardo needed just four pitches to retire three hitters.

And according to J.T. Realmuto, those four pitches were quite a contrast to what he’d seen moments earlier.

The catcher was standing in the batting cage preparing for his next at-bat, watching Luzardo warm up on a monitor.

“He didn’t throw a single strike,” Realmuto said Monday. “We were actually talking in the cage as hitters, like, how are we going to get through this? ‘Sus hasn’t thrown a strike yet and he’s warming up.”

Luzardo was still rusty during his warmup pitches on the mound. Then the inning began, and he retired the side so quickly that Realmuto never got a chance to call one of his most effective pitches.

“I wanted to call an 0-0 sweeper just to get one in there and see how it looked,” Realmuto said.

Instead, he started the third hitter with a sinker, expecting to work the sweeper into the at-bat. One pitch later, the inning was over.

“I guess that’s how the game works,” Realmuto said. “His stuff looked good.”

For Realmuto, there had been some initial uncertainty about Luzardo’s recovery. But after the first few days, as the left-hander began reporting steady improvement in the clubhouse, the catcher grew increasingly confident that he’d be ready for the postseason.

The bigger question Sunday was how Luzardo would handle a role he had rarely, if ever, been asked to fill.

“It was more for me less about him coming off the IL,” Realmuto said. “He had never been out of the bullpen before that I know of and hadn’t seen him work in that capacity, and that can be a lot different for starting pitchers. It was definitely encouraging to see how well he threw coming into that spot.”

The Phillies received another encouraging update Monday. Luzardo reported no issues after his appearance, clearing the way for Mattingly to give him the ball against Atlanta.

“We wouldn’t be doing this if he didn’t come out feeling normal,” Mattingly said. “He felt good.”

It’s hardly the way the Phillies envisioned using a pitcher who finished the regular season 14-5 with a 2.85 ERA and 221 strikeouts across 29 starts.

Luzardo’s last full outing was among his finest. He struck out 12 Braves, walked nobody and allowed just two hits in a 1-0 victory at Truist Park. In four starts against Atlanta since joining Philadelphia, he owns a 1.01 ERA, with opponents batting .185.

Under different circumstances, he would have been a candidate to start Game 1 without any uncertainty about his workload. But the Phillies’ difficult final week left them with few conventional options.

Nola started Saturday on two days’ rest, and Zack Wheeler had to pitch six innings Sunday to secure their postseason berth. Mattingly acknowledged that neither development was particularly conducive to lining up a postseason rotation.

“The bullpen games haven’t went great for us this year, but that’s where we’re at,” he said. “Obviously what we had to get in and what we had to do with Noles the other day, all that kind of led to what we’re doing tomorrow.”

Rookie Andrew Painter could play a significant role behind Luzardo.

The right-hander is expected to be available out of the bullpen Tuesday, although the Phillies haven’t committed to a specific plan for the innings after their opener. Mattingly wants to see Atlanta’s lineup before deciding how to arrange his pitchers.

Painter spent the final days of the regular season available in relief as the Phillies tried to clinch, but the club never found an opportunity to use him in that role. He has made two bulk appearances out of the bullpen this season, so entering behind another pitcher wouldn’t be entirely unfamiliar.

His improved command during his second stint in the majors gives the Phillies more confidence in asking him to cover multiple innings, although pitching in his first postseason game presents another challenge.

And with Luzardo’s workload uncertain, Painter could be needed much earlier than a traditional bulk reliever.

“We haven’t sat down and really tried to script it yet,” Mattingly said. “We don’t know what their lineup looks like or anything else, so we’ll see tomorrow.”

The Phillies at least have some clarity beyond the opener. Sánchez is scheduled to start Game 2 on regular rest, while Nola is working toward a potential Game 3. Mattingly also left open the possibility of using Wheeler in a deciding game, depending on how he recovers from Sunday’s outing.

But getting through Tuesday won’t be straightforward, particularly against a Braves lineup that has seen plenty of Philadelphia’s pitching staff.

Realmuto acknowledged that familiarity creates an additional challenge for a catcher trying to guide his pitchers through a postseason game.

“There’s almost, feels like there’s a little more of the cat-and-mouse game of we can’t do the same things we’ve done all season,” he said. “Even if they’ve worked, there’s times you’ve got to go away from things.”

That familiarity works both ways, though. Luzardo’s success against Atlanta is well documented, and the Phillies have seen Sale four times this season. They know what they’re facing, even if they’re still figuring out exactly how they’ll approach it.

Luzardo’s availability wasn’t the only roster question Philadelphia resolved Monday.

Mattingly confirmed that Luis Arraez will not be on the Wild Card roster. The infielder has continued to make progress from the left ankle sprain he suffered Thursday, but he attempted to take swings Monday and was unable to do so.

Otto Kemp will take his place, and the Phillies will carry three catchers in Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán. Mattingly pointed to Stubbs’ versatility as one benefit of that arrangement, noting that he can pinch-run and play several positions if needed.

Jonathan Bowlan will also be on the roster after recovering from a groin injury. The Phillies considered using him during Sunday’s clincher but held off because of the wet mound at Citizens Bank Park, which Mattingly feared could create unnecessary risk for a pitcher returning from that particular injury.

Bowlan’s return gives Philadelphia another option in the middle and late innings. How those options fit together will depend largely on what Luzardo can provide at the beginning of the game.

Mattingly isn’t promising a traditional start, and Sunday offered only a brief look at a pitcher who hasn’t worked a full game in three weeks. But Luzardo got through his appearance, felt good the following day and is ready to take the mound against the last team he faced before his injury.

“This is how we got here,” Mattingly said. “We’re walking into it like this. We’re going to show up and play, and we’ll see where it goes.”

Yes, the White Sox did end up snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory by falling from the No. 2 seed into the No. 6 and final Wild Card spot at the end of the season, and their punishment is extreme: Having to spend additional time in Texas.

Worse, due to the compressed nature of the playoffs and the desire to play as few games in snow flurries as possible, there is not even time for a travel day in the Wild Card Round so that both teams get at least one home game (in the minors, three-game postseason series start with the lower seed getting Game 1 at home, then the better seed hosting Game 2 and a possible Game 3). Thus, the entire series is played in Houston, essentially one more “normal” series tacked on to the regular season in order to winnow the playoff teams down to a proper four.

As expected, the White Sox will not be in prime time, a consequence of both the middle-ground Central Time Zone and “disinterest” in the White Sox and Astros nationally. Yes, Chicago is the third and Houston the sixth media market in the country, but, you know, those other Sawx have brain control over MLB and, I don’t know, “the Cubs.”

But the White Sox have a consistent spot, with 4 p.m. Central Games 1 and 2 in Houston, then a possible time shift for a potential Game 3 depending on which of the other three series have already wrapped up.

And sadly, for those of you not enslaved by the Universal Corporation/NBC with your streaming, that is where the entire Wild Card series lands this year, with no local broadcasting beyond Steve Stone sneaking into the Peacock booth to provide color commentary.

So, if the White Sox and Astros go three games along with every other Wild Card series, here is how things will shake out:

Game 1 (Tuesday, September 29) White Sox at Astros, 4 p.m. CT (Peacock and NBCSN)
Game 2 (Wednesday, September 30) White Sox at Astros, 4 p.m. CT (Peacock and NBCSN)
Game 3 (if needed, and all four series are still active) (Thursday, October 1) White Sox at Astros, 4 p.m. CT (Peacock and NBCSN)

Game 3 (if needed, and Atlanta-Philadelphia is finished) (Thursday, October 1) White Sox at Astros, 1 p.m. CT (Peacock and NBCSN)
Game 3 (if needed, and Padres-Cubs is finished) (Thursday, October 1) White Sox at Astros, 4 p.m. CT (Peacock and NBCSN)
Game 3 (if needed, and Yankees-Red Sox is finished) (Thursday, October 1) White Sox at Astros, 4 p.m. CT (Peacock and NBCSN)

Game 3 (if needed, and Atlanta-Philadelphia and Padres-Cubs are finished) (Thursday, October 1) White Sox at Astros, 1 p.m. CT (Peacock and NBCSN)
Game 3 (if needed, and Atlanta-Philadelphia and Red Sox-Yankees are finished) (Thursday, October 1) White Sox at Astros, 1 p.m. CT (Peacock and NBCSN)
Game 3 (if needed, and Red Sox-Yankees and Padres-Cubs are finished) (Thursday, October 1) White Sox at Astros, 1 p.m. CT (Peacock and NBCSN)

Game 3 (if needed, and all other three series are finished) (Thursday, October 1) White Sox at Astros, 7 p.m. CT (NBC and Peacock)

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For you baseball hounds who want to watch every game, or have a secret other favorite baseball team you want to keep hidden from your sisters and brothers at South Side Sox, here’s the full slate of Wild Card broadcast games, per MLB:

The MLB postseason is here.

There are 12 teams headed to the playoffs including the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies, who needed wins in Game 162 to punch their respective tickets to the dance. But now, records reset to 0-0, and all 12 teams have an equal chance to win the World Series.

At least in theory.

But some teams are in a better position than others as the playoffs beckon. Here are the 12 teams in the MLB Playoffs, ranked by their chances of winning the World Series.

12. Houston Astros (81-81)

The Houston Astros became the first team in MLB history to win the division without a winning record.

This is a team that can mash, as the Astros led the majors with 226 home runs, 42 off the bat of MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez. Four other members of the lineup topped 20 home runs as well: Christian Walker, Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, and Cam Smith.

But the problem is pitching, as the Astros were 24th in MLB in ERA and 21st in WHIP. Closer Josh Hader was solid in the second half, racking up 16 saves and posting a WHIP of 0.682, and Bryan Abreu has been dependable in front of him, but the bullpen has been inconsistent beyond those two.

So if the rotation cannot pitch deep into games, that will be a problem.

11. Chicago White Sox (84-78)

After losing more than 100 games in each of the past three seasons, the Chicago White Sox were one of baseball’s best stories this year, leading the AL Central for much of the season before sliding into the playoffs with a Wild Card spot.

Chicago is powered by a lineup that features three players with more than 30 home runs — Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, and Miguel Vargas — and as a team the White Sox posted an OBP 0f .320, second only to the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League.

However, the problem in the playoffs might be starting pitching. As a staff the White Sox starting pitchers posted an ERA of 4.60 this season (26th in the majors) and a WHIP of 1.34 (25th in the majors). That sets up a tough matchup, starting with the Wild Card Series against Houston.

But, they do have the Pope on their side.

10. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74)

The Philadelphia Phillies cut their magic number for a playoff spot to one with a win over the Milwaukee Brewers last Tuesday.

They lost their next four games by a combined score of 23-3, needing a win on the final day of the season to book a postseason berth.

Philadelphia did that on Sunday, clinching the final Wild Card spot in the NL with a 7-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, and this star-laden team now gets a series with the Atlanta Braves to prove everyone wrong. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trae Turner bring the star power, and Jhoan Duran remains one of the best closers in baseball. Philadelphia also has Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez leading the rotation; however, manager Don Mattingly was forced to use Sánchez in the season finale, complicating his availability this week. Then there is Aaron Nola, who is coming off a spot start on short rest on Saturday and needs to play a big role despite some struggles this season.

Can a weary rotation, and a bullpen that has endured its own share of struggles in front of Duran, get the job done? That is the big question.

9. Cleveland Guardians (85-77)

While the Chicago White Sox were one of the biggest surprises of the MLB season, in the end the Cleveland Guardians clinched the AL Central, and a first-round playoff bye.

Their reward? After the bye Cleveland will have home-field advantage against the winner of the Houston-Chicago series, and they will avoid any of the AL East teams until a potential ALCS matchup.

The Guardians are led by their pitching, as Cleveland boasts both a strong rotation and a stellar bullpen. Gavin Williams and Parker Messick pace a starting staff that produced the ninth-best ERA among starters and the bullpen, led by closer Cade Smith and the trio of setup arms Hunter Gaddis, Eric Sabrowski, and Tim Herrin was even better, with the sixth-best ERA among bullpens in the majors.

If Cleveland gets enough production from the offense, that pitching staff could power them to the ALCS, where anything can happen.

8. Boston Red Sox (87-75)

After a brutal start cost manager Alex Cora his job, the Boston Red Sox used a 32-5 stretch to push into playoff contention.

But Boston cooled off after that torrid summer, and there are some questions facing this team as the playoffs loom. One is the health of the lineup. Ceddanne Rafaela is back after missing 16 games with a quad injury, but will Willson Contreras be fully healthy after getting hit by a pitch on his right hand in the final week of the season? A second question? Can the lineup bounce back after a difficult September. As a team, Boston posted an OPS of .651 in the month of September.

Which was dead last in the majors.

Pitching is not a question. The trio of Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez is one of the best left standing, and Aroldis Chapman has been dynamic at the back of the bullpen yet again. Boston could even get Garrett Crochet back from injury in a relief role, and Tanner Houck — who started Game 162 more than 500 days after his last MLB appearance, after working back from Tommy John surgery — could be in the mix out of the bullpen as well.

Which version of the Red Sox shows up, however, is the ultimate question.

7. Chicago Cubs (89-73)

The Chicago Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball, led by MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, the first center fielder in MLB history to produce a 40/40 season. This is a lineup that led the majors with a team OPS of .767, and a team slugging percentage of .428. Beyond Crow-Armstrong, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki all put 20 home runs on the board this season.

The Cubs also have one of the best defenses in baseball, again with Crow-Armstrong leading the way. The outfielder posted a Fielding Run Value (FRV) of +26 this season, tops in the majors, and the Cubs led all teams with a FRV of +72 this year, ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals who posted a +45.

The problem? Pitching. The Cubs starters posted a team ERA of 4.27 this year — worst among NL playoff teams — and only two teams gave up more home runs than the Cubs this year. And a staff that has been hampered by injuries faces another question on that front as the playoffs loom, as Kevin Gausman was injured on a tag play last week and suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Craig Counsell would love to have him for the series against the San Diego Padres.

The Cubs have the offense and the defense to win games, but do they have the pitching to win a series or two?

6. San Diego Padres (91-71)

If momentum could be measured, the San Diego Padres might be off the charts.

The Padres went 17-11 in August, and then 18-6 in September, to lock down a Wild Card spot. This was quite the turnaround for a team that was flirting with being sellers at the trade deadline. Leading the way was outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr., who did not homer over the first 55 games of the season but finished with 25 home runs and 38 steals, thanks to a torrid closing stretch. Jackson Merrill overcame a slow start of his own to finish with 26 home runs and 27 steals, giving the Padres their first 25/25 duo.

As a lineup, the Padres were second in both OPS and slugging percentage after the All-Star break, behind only the Cubs.

San Diego also has one of the best bullpens in baseball, with closer Mason Miller in form behind setup men Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez.

They’ll host the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, and while Chicago won the season series 5-1, that was before San Diego’s late-season turnaround.

5. New York Yankees (93-68)

When the New York Yankees lost Aaron Judge for an extended period of the regular season, the lineup stepped up in his absence. While Judge played just 66 games and hit 18 home runs, the Yankees managed to belt 223 home runs, finishing second in the majors.

But with his status in question for the Wild Card Series against Boston, the rest of that lineup will need to step up yet again. And the matchup against the Red Sox will be a tough one, as Boston will likely throw Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez against them — a strong start — and the Red Sox have one of the best bullpens in the game.

And that matchup will be even tougher without Judge’s bat in the lineup.

We have a deeper preview of this series here.

4. Atlanta Braves (94-67)

While the Atlanta Braves would have loved a first-round bye, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers out of striking distance Atlanta was able to set their rotation for the Wild Card Series over the final week of the season. Chris Sale made his final start of the regular season last Wednesday on extra rest, and will be on extra rest when he gets the ball for Game 1. The same goes for Tyler Mahle, who will have extra rest ahead of an anticipated Game 2 start.

Plus the Braves get the Philadelphia Phillies in the Wild Card Series, who gave their fans something to worry about over the final few days of the season as they did not clinch a spot until Game 162.

3. Tampa Bay Rays (98-64)

Few people gave the Tampa Bay Rays a chance when the season began.

Leading with me, who put the Rays in the “True Longshots” category when the year began, along with the Diamondbacks, the Athletics, and the Twins.

But here are the Rays, the winners of the AL East and the team to beat in the American League. MCP candidate Junior Caminero has put up massive numbers for Tampa Bay — he slashed .276/.360/.524 this year along with 42 home runs — and is at the heart of a lineup that punishes pitchers from top-to-bottom. As a team the Rays hit .258 this season, the best number in the AL and tied with the Brewers for the top number in the majors, and the Rays also posted a team OPS of .728, behind only the Houston Astros in the American League.

Add in a staff that posted an MLB-best team WHIP of 1.14, tied with the Dodgers, and you have the recipe for a deep playoff run.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62)

The Los Angeles Dodgers got off to their annual hot start, endured a mid-season slump that raised more questions than answers about their chances at a three-peat, but enter the playoffs having found some of those answers.

Kyle Tucker’s season-long slump seems to be ending just in time for a post-season run, as he slashed .266/362/.557 in the month of September, his best stretch of the season by far. Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith are both back in the lineup, Edwin Diaz seems to have found his stuff — he was flawless in September, allowing just one hit in four appearances and striking out eight — and Mookie Betts is back to being Mookie Betts, as he slashed .345/.447/.690 in September, also putting up his best numbers of the season.

When you’ve won a pair of titles, you know when to turn it on.

The Dodgers seem to have done just that over the last month.

1. Milwaukee Brewers (103-59)

The Milwaukee Brewers top these rankings, as they topped 100 wins for the first time in franchise history.

But for this team, the real test comes in October. The Brewers have now won the NL Central for four consecutive years, and in five of the last six campaigns. What do they have to show for that? Two playoff wins, including a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in the NLCS a year ago.

Jacob Misiorowski gives them a bonafide ace, as the big right-hander led the majors in ERA (1.86), ERA+ (225), WHIP (0.803), and K/9 (13.1) this season, and Logan Henderson has developed into a solid No. 2 for Milwaukee. If Kyle Harrison somehow recovers his first-half form (he was 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA before the All-Star Break, but went 3-3 with a 7.31 ERA in the second half of the season) this team could finally break through to the promised land.

Well, it looks like we’re doing this again.

For the third time in five seasons, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will be facing off in the Postseason. You don’t need me to tell you how the past two series went but if you’re dwelling on that, I’d advise you not to. Both managers have changed, both teams have a new look when compared to those two series and Philadelphia’s home crowd and/or ballpark won’t play a factor in this series since every game will be taking place in Cobb County.

So while this is a familiar Postseason foe, I think we’re all looking forward to a different Postseason result this time around. Atlanta should also benefit from having been able to prepare for this series for a solid week. The Phillies could’ve had a similar amount of preparation time but they instead left it all the way until Game 162 in order to clinch their spot in the Postseason. Depending on how you feel, it’s either a blessing or a curse that the Phillies will be going out of the frying pan of the regular season and into the fire of the Postseason without much rest or preparation.

With that being said, I’d imagine that the Phillies certainly would’ve preferred being able to set up for the Postseason since now they’re having to strain a bit in order to get things set up the way that they’d like for this series against the Braves. Let’s take a look at how the Phillies are shaping up for this series, what to watch out for and what my personal outlook is for this particular series.

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Starting Pitching

As far as starters go, the Braves will have the advantage here largely because of the fact that the Phillies had to expend a a lot of resources just to even make it into the Postseason. Cristopher Sánchez had to start this past Friday, Aaron Nola started on just two days rest on Saturday (and wasn’t particularly effective) and Zack Wheeler was forced to go on Sunday, so Sánchez would likely be the Game 2 starter and if Wheeler shows up (likely Game 3, if necessary) then he’ll be pitching on short rest. Jesús Luzardo has essentially been rushed back from the shoulder inflammation that he’d been dealing with for September and if he does pitch, it could be in a short burst rather than any type of extended start.

Depending on how Luzardo feels, he might be the Game 1 starter. If it’s more of an opener-type deal then Andrew Painter could get the bulk of those innings for Game 1. Either way, it’s certainly not an ideal situation for Philadelphia coming into a three-game series against the Braves.

Sánchez has been solid over the past month or so but the Braves proved that they can score runs on him, so that wouldn’t be an impossible task if they have to face him. Luzardo utterly dominated Atlanta in his last outing against the Braves but again, he’s coming off of an injury and may not be as effective in his first appearance back. Nola just might be exhausted after having pitched more often than usual over the course of this past week. Painter has certainly been tricky for the Braves to deal with so far but again, it’s not an impossible task to score runs off of him.

With all of that being said, Wheeler has always been tough on the Braves and I’d imagine that one less day of rest wouldn’t be enough to throw him off. Outside of that, it really feels like the Braves are catching the Phillies in a vulnerable spot as far as their starting pitching goes. That’s not to say that Philadephia’s just going to be serving up meatballs for the Braves to feast upon but there’s definitely a scenario where the Braves can find themselves getting into Philly’s bullpen early and that could reap some benefits for Atlanta. However, if this rotation performs as expected and the Braves continue to struggle at the plate early on in games (Atlanta has only hit .242/.296/.383 in the first six innings of games this year, good for just a .298 wOBA an 86 wRC+, which is the second-worst mark in baseball so far), then they’re probably going to need some more late heroics in order to pull something off.

Bullpen

Philadelphia’s bullpen also has some questions heading into this series. Jhoan Duran is ready to go and he’ll likely be very tough to deal with if he does enter the game but outside of that, there’s nobody who’s particularly imposing in this relief corps. Jonathan Bowlan willbe on the roster but there’s a question of how effective that he’ll be since he’s been dealing with a groin strain here in the latter portion of September and he hasn’t pitched since September 17. If he does turn out to be healthy and effective then Atlanta will have a tough challenge on their hands but if not, Philadelphia’s bullpen depth will be put to the test during this series.

Don Mattingly has come to trust rookie hurler Alex McFarlane out of the bullpen here in the second half of the season and for the most part, he’s been very effective. With that being said, the Braves will be coming into this game having tagged McFarlane with his worst appearance of the season back on September 6, which is when they got him for three runs off of three hits — including that infamous homer from Ronald Acuña Jr. that set off furiously-goofy debates about how long a home run trot should be. Tim Mayza has been relatively reliable for them so far and the Phillies will also be hoping that new acquisition José Urquidy can deliver.

Still, there is a lot of uncertainty about whether or not the Phillies can get to Duran without stepping on a landmine. José Alvarado has always had his fair share of adventures, so there’s another guy who could be tricky for the Braves to deal with but they’ve also had success against him in the past. This isn’t a bad bullpen by any means but it’s also not one to be feared, either — especially considering that in the converse of their early -inning struggles, the Braves have hit .250/.319/.437 with a .329 wOBA and 107 wRC+ across the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings this season. If the Braves are going to put runs on the board, this’ll likely be their best chance to do it against the relief portion of Philadelphia’s pitching staff.

Offense

You have to respect a lineup that still has Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber lurking in it. They’ve done enough damage to the Braves in the past that it would be foolish to imagine that they wouldn’t be dangerous. Schwarber has definitely enjoyed his time hitting against the Braves this season and Harper has shown that he can turn the switch on at any given moment. It really wouldn’t be shocking if those two found it in them to send some more torment towards Atlanta’s way.

With that being said, those two haven’t exactly been tearing it up in the short term coming into the Postseason. If anything, the Phillies have been relying on guys like Derek Hill, Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa to carry them in the Postseason. Perhaps that explains a lot about why it took them all 162 games to lock down a Postseason spot but either way, those guys could be very tricky to deal with in this series. Hill already proved in this ballpark how dangerous he could be after he hit a bases-clearing double off of Chris Sale during that fateful series not too long ago. The Postseason is full of stories of unsung heroes causing trauma and grief for opponents so that’s definitely something to watch out for.

Still, this isn’t exactly the deep and dangerous Phillies lineup that the Braves had to deal with in both 2022 and 2023 when Philadelphia bounced Atlanta out of the Postseason on two consecutive occasions. Trea Turner has had a down season, Bryson Stott and Bryan De La Cruz have both slowed down recently, Brandon Marsh and Justin Crawford haven’t really been tearing it up on a consistent basis and J.T. Realmuto’s production has fallen off of a cliff. Luis Arraez has usually been a thorn in Atlanta’s side but if he plays, he’ll be coming off of a spraing ankle and to be honest, I wouldn’t expect him to play. Over the course of the entire 2026 season and up until Game 162, the Phillies were tied with the Reds and Rockies for the lowest wRC+ in all of baseball (91) and that number has only gone up slightly (94) since August 1.

I wish I could say that the Braves have the clear advantage here but Atlanta has only produced 91 wRC+ as a team since August 1 and it’s only slightly better for the Braves when you extrapolate through to the rest of the season (98 wRC+). Someone’s going to have to get a big hit and some point and hopefully Atlanta’s deeper lineup will be able to get the job done with the home field advantage.

Defense/Base Running

Well, this one is pretty clear-cut. The Braves will be heading into the Postseason having posted a Top-5 defense in all of baseball according to OAA (22) and DRS (63). Once the Phillies acquired Luis Arraez, they basically decided to go all-in on offense while hoping that nothing disastrous happens out in the field. Considering that Philadelphia’s OAA for the season has been -14 and their DRS is all the way down at -43, the Braves would seem to be much less likely to give away extra outs. That’s huge in a such a short-sample size as any given Postseason series and Atlanta’s advantage on defense really could come in handy if these games end up being extremely close.

With that being said, the Phillies have done a better job running the bases when compared to Atlanta. This was a point of emphasis for the Braves heading into the season and unfortunately, things haven’t really changed for the better over the course of the season. The Braves are sitting on -4 Baserunning runs according to Baseball Savant, while the Phillies have a positive value of 9 Baserunning Runs so far this season — good for the third-best mark in baseball. Both teams are in the same neighborhood when it comes to preventing stolen bases but it’s pretty clear that Atlanta’s probably going to have the tougher task of preventing the Phillies from running wild on the basepaths.

Overall Outlook

I’m going to say that Atlanta’s home field advantage is going to be huge in this series. While Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been particularly great across the board so far this season, they’ve produced at a very solid level at home, to the tune of a .259/.321/.428 collective slash line along with .327 wOBA and 106 wRC+. Ronald Acuña Jr. has started to heat up recently, Michael Harris II has been a very consistent hitter so far, Matt Olson has had himself another great year and hopefully Drake Baldwin and Mauricio Dubón will both rise to the occasion as well.

On top of that, the Braves will also have the advantage of having a more reliable bullpen and being pretty well set up for the first two games of the series. Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle will be getting the ball for Game 1 and 2 and we’ve known that for a while now, compared to the situation that the Phillies have been dealing with. If both Sale and Mahle perform as advertised then you have to like their chances when it comes to turning things over to this particular bullpen late in the game.

Philadelphia may have expended too many resources and too much energy just to get across the finish line in the NL Wild Card race and the Braves will have to take advantage of that. The neutral fan in me believes that the Braves have the edge and of course the objective fan in me believes that the Braves are going to pull this off as well. With that being said, this is a weird sport, this is a weird team and these two teams are so familiar that anything could be on the table as far as results go.

With that being said, you play all of these games to get home field advantage for a reason and I feel like that could make all the difference in the world for the Braves. Atlanta won the overall season series and went 4-2 against Philadelphia in Cobb County. All the Braves need are two more wins and they’ll be getting on a plane to Los Angeles. We’ll see what happens.

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Game 1: Tuesday, September 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET
Game 2: Wednesday, September 30 at 2:00 p.m ET
Game 3 (if neccessary): Thursday, October 1 at TBD (2:00 p.m. ET or 8:00 p.m. ET)
All games televised on NBC and streamed on Peacock
All games will be on ESPN Radio and the Braves Radio Network (680 The Fan/93.7 FM)