Thomson: Phillies must ‘command the zone' vs. Snell in Game 2 originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
Last year, the Phils were in the same spot.
In Game 1 of the 2024 NLDS, they fell to the Mets, 6–2, zapping the energy out of Citizens Bank Park.
And their Game 1 struggles repeated in Saturday’s loss to the Dodgers.
Down 1–0 last postseason, the Phillies clawed back against New York, making lineup changes and stringing together timely at-bats before Nick Castellanos walked them off, 7–6, to even the series.
So how do you bounce back tonight against two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell?
The lineup shakes up
With the lefty on the mound, Rob Thomson’s lineup has a different look:
- SS Trea Turner
 - DH Kyle Schwarber
 - 1B Bryce Harper
 - 3B Alec Bohm
 - C J.T. Realmuto
 - RF Nick Castellanos
 - 2B Edmundo Sosa
 - CF Brandon Marsh
 - LF Otto Kemp
 
Naturally, with Harrison Bader out due to a groin injury, the Phillies had to shuffle the outfield. Rookie Otto Kemp makes his postseason debut in left — a spot he played just 63 innings in during his first big league season.
“It’s obviously not Otto’s natural position,” Thomson said pregame. “But he’s really improved. His routes were off a little bit early, but him and Paco [Figueroa] did a lot of work, and he runs better than people think. He’s improved tremendously.”
Defensively, Kemp will be tested. The Dodgers — who have five right-handed hitters in the lineup — enter with one of baseball’s highest pull rates (45.2%), and with no Bader available, Thomson could be quick to turn to Max Kepler late if matchups call for it.
Offensively, the move fits. Kemp slugged .462 against lefties this season and posted a .786 OPS. He did strike out twice in three at-bats against Snell earlier this year, but Thomson liked his swing decisions more than Weston Wilson. “I just like Kemp’s at-bats a little better,” Thomson said.
Brandon Marsh slides over to center, a familiar spot where he’s logged 84 games this season. And Edmundo Sosa, who has feasted on left-handers (.318/.362/.593), gets the start at second. Sosa is 3-for-8 lifetime against Snell and could be an early spark plug for a Phillies lineup searching for a rhythm.
Snell’s recent dominance vs. Phils
Phillies fans remember Snell’s last outing against them — a 12-strikeout, two-hit masterpiece at Dodger Stadium just three weeks ago. It was easily one of the most dominant pitching performances they faced all season long.
He was unpredictable, throwing only 38 percent of his pitches in the strike zone but still generating a 44 percent whiff rate. The fastball appeared sparingly — just 34 percent usage — and when it did show up, hitters rarely squared it up. Instead, his changeup and slider did the heavy lifting, forcing weak contact and chase swings.
Snell got six whiffs on just 10 sliders that night, and his curveball wasn’t far behind, generating a 56 percent whiff rate. But his changeup was his true weapon — the pitch that kept Philadelphia off balance. It induced soft contact with an average exit velocity of just 80.6 mph, and the Phillies chased half of his 22 changeups outside the strike zone.
As Thomson said before the game, “You’ve got to command the strike zone, because he’s going to get you to go out of it and chase. You’ve got to really hone him in and get his pitch count up.”
The approach
To beat Blake Snell, the Phillies have to hunt the fastball. Opponents hit .309 off the pitch this season — a massive jump from last year’s .201 mark. The difference, particularly for right-handed hitters, has been stark as the average jumps to .329 in those matchups.
With a righty-heavy lineup, the Phillies will try to work themselves into fastball counts and capitalize. But they’ll also have to resist expanding.
“Snell likes to induce a lot of chase,” Thomson said. “You’ve got to be aware of what’s going on.”
Finding that balance — being aggressive early without expanding the zone — will be the key. The top of the order needs to set the tone, because once Snell settles in, he rarely gives in.
The Dodgers’ bullpen could also play a pivotal role again. Even with Snell’s recent length, his last outing being seven innings, Dave Roberts showed in Game 1 that he’s willing to use starters like Tyler Glasnow in relief — so Emmett Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw could get their name called.
The bottom line
The Phillies need a win and a strong outing from Jesús Luzardo, but their biggest adjustment must come at the plate.
Last year, they found a way to respond after a Game 1 loss. If they’re going to even the series tonight, they’ll need to make Blake Snell throw strikes — and punish him when he does.