Category: MLB

San Diego Padres (50-52) at Atlanta Braves (59-42), July 23, 2026, 9:15 a.m. PST

Watch: Padres.TV

Location: Truist Park – Atlanta, GA

Listen: 97.3 The Fan

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The Cleveland Guardians have a good problem in a star shortstop prospect who is knocking on the door of the big leagues.

In case you’ve missed it, Angel Genao is a 22 year-old switch-hitting shortstop prospect currently in Columbus for the Guardians’ Triple-A team. In 61 games, Genao has a 130 wRC+, 14.1/12.5 K/BB%, with a .303/.391/.469 slashline and 6 stolen bases. His splits are roughly even over the past two years, with his right-handed hitting his slightly stronger side. He is also an excellent defender and at Triple-A has played 44 games at shortstop, 10 games at third base, and 6 games at second base. Also, his name is not Genoa so please update your autocorrects, accordingly.

Genao is a hot streak away from really proving he needs a major league chance, but his numbers already stand out. Since 2017, these are the top five shortstop hitting performances at Triple-A for players 22 years and younger:

JJ Wetherholt, 22 years old, 164 wRC+

Elly De La Cruz, 21-22 years old, 151 wRC+

Wander Franco, 20-21 years old, 151 wRC+

Gunnar Henderson, 21-22 years old, 140 wRC+

Angel Genao, 22 years old, 131 wRC+

Genao does hit way too many groundballs at 55%, but his 90 mph average exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate helps minimize the launch angle issues. If you see Genao left in Columbus or traded in a big deal, it will be because he pounds the ball into the ground. But, hitting the ball hard and pulling it as he does effectively (50%) should give him a chance to make a less than ideal launch angle work if he can even see a 5-10% reduction on groundballs moved to line drives and fly balls.

I think there is a chance that bringing Genao up to play second base and temporarily moving Travis Bazzana to DH, then playing Bazzana at second base and Genao at third when Jose DH’s may become the Guardians’ ideal lineup at some point, perhaps near to today. Bazzana’s future defensive home may be in left field or at second base, but his work at second is a negative right now.

It is possible that Genao may be a piece in a big trade for a right-handed slugger or for a starting pitcher. But, given his production and age, that could be a mistake for the Guardians. They may want to try Genao in centerfield if they think Bazzana can stick at second, but some plans should be forming to get another Guardian Angel on this team soon.

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It's a small slate Thursday with fewer pitchers to fade and MLB player props to dig into, but there are certainly some dingers showing value on the board.

Shane Bieber is the best home run target today, and some left-handed bats have a big bump with no good left-handed arms in the Jays' bullpen. Bieber's reverse splits are also making Junior Caminero and that swing very appetizing at his current odds.

In the late game, there is another reverse-split matchup with Dillon Dingler that is showing legit value.

These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, July 23.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Victor Mesa Jr.	+563
Junior Caminero	+245
Dillon Dingler	+569
💲Today's HR parlay	+12839

Home run pick: Victor Mesa Jr. (+563)

Eight home runs in just 38 games and 120 plate appearances is pretty impressive for the rookie outfielder, and he's heating up in a hurry with three homers since Saturday, including two in this series against Toronto.

Victor Mesa Jr. is a left-handed bat, but the pinch-hit risk is minimal today with Toronto likely having just one lefty available in the bullpen — Brendon Little and his 17.61 ERA.

He'll open the game against Shane Bieber, who is coming off a strong outing against the White Sox, but the underlying numbers are still ugly. Bieber ranks in the Bottom 10 among starters in both HR/9 and HR/FB rate, and no starter owns a worse BlastContact% this season.

Seven of the 29 hits he's allowed have left the yard through just five starts. The walks are climbing, and the meatballs keep getting crushed.

One stat that really stands out is the swing speed against Bieber. No starter has a higher average swing speed against at 74.1 mph, and 48.6% of swings against him qualify as "fast swings" of at least 75 mph. Hitters are taking absolute hacks against him.

The Tampa bats project well today, and Mesa is a buy for me down to +500.

• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV

Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+245)

Let's keep picking on Bieber, but this time I'm going to the right side because the reverse splits are very real.

Right-handed hitters are batting .396 against Bieber this season compared to just .208 for lefties. There are a few appealing Tampa Bay right-handed bats today, but I'm not getting cute.

Junior Caminero owns the fastest average swing speed in baseball at 79.8 mph, and 88% of his swings register at 75 mph or higher. You can't cheat that kind of bat speed, and it's a big reason why his underlying hitting metrics are among the league's best.

The matchup couldn't be much better. Bieber allows the fastest average swing speed against of any MLB starter, meaning hitters are loading up and taking full cuts against him. That's exactly the profile you want for a power hitter like Caminero.

Reverse splits aren't always fully priced into the market, so there's still value here. The break-even price should be around +225.

• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV

Home run pick: Dillon Dingler (+569)

Dillon Dingler continues to offer value against right-handed pitching because he's a true reverse-splits hitter who crushes righties. He owns a .928 OPS against RHPs this season, and 18 of his 22 home runs have come against them.

He's also in the middle of a power binge after launching three homers in the Cubs series while going 7-for-12 with a ridiculous 2.032 OPS at Wrigley.

Detroit gets Triple-A arm Randy Dobnak, whose 1.93 ERA paints a much prettier picture than his underlying numbers. His 5.61 xERA and 5.68 FIP suggest regression is coming, and his LOB% and BABIP have been carrying him.

This is a great home run price for a reverse-splits hitter in excellent form against a pitcher who has been living on borrowed time.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Royals.TV, DSN 

Today’s HR parlay

Victor Mesa Jr.	Bet Now +12839
Junior Caminero
Dillon Dingler

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

This game is why games like Monday hurt. Sometimes, it just isn’t your night. Tigers pitching stifled the Cubs Wednesday night. The result was a non-competitive 5-1 loss. The Cubs managed just four hits and one walk. Unless all of those hits are home runs, that just isn’t going to win many games. They did, in fact, get one homer and a double. With a homer and a double in there, you could maybe sequence it well and get two or three runs out of that output. But it’s extremely hard to win without offensive production. And so, it frustrates you that the Monday game was winnable and it slipped away.

The Tigers are trying to save their season in a year when the American League is particularly unimpressive. The Tigers sit with just the 11th best record. They are 6.5 games out of first in the AL Central. They are 4.5 games behind the Red Sox for the last Wild Card spot. You can understand some frustration and confusion for the Tigers in that just a few weeks ago the Red Sox were one of the teams they were ahead of. Surely, they are saying why not us and hoping they can get on a bit of a roll this week and not be sellers at the deadline. In reality, they are probably in the spot where you might do a “soft” sell. Possibly trade from the fringes of the roster, particularly where you might have a prospect that would come up and fill the spot.

Regardless, this is the time of year when you can catch a team playing a little desperate. That didn’t work out particularly well for the Cubs in this series. Fortunately, they had that inspired Tuesday night first inning and got out with the one win. It ends with a 3-3 homestand which feels like a little lost opportunity against two AL Central opponents struggling to stay competitive. Ahead of a daunting 17-game stretch, it’s disappointing to be sure.

This is as good a spot as any for a perspective check. Four teams have better records than the Cubs. One team has the same record as the Cubs. The Cubs have sole possession of the first Wild Card spot. The Cubs are on pace for 90.5 wins. The Cubs are 4th in MLB in runs per game. They are 18th in runs allowed per game. That is the story of the season. The Cub offense pretty much has to show up every night or the team doesn’t win.

This next stretch will take more than a quarter of the remaining games off of the schedule.17 games in 17 days. Tough road games, daunting opposition, the heat of the summer. It’s all there. This is it really. If they can hang in there through this stretch, they should be able to get this across the finish line. Hopefully, healthy bodies start showing up during this stretch. Hopefully the front office adds meaningful depth to the roster. The Dodgers are going to look like an unclimbable mountain probably for years to come. The Brewers run a really tight ship. There aren’t going to be a ton of seasons where you are positioned better than this. Even getting into the playoffs and winning a series or two has value to the organization. You want to be one of those teams that is there every year. When it starts getting down to the final four teams every year, you want to be one of those teams. Fight the fight.

Three Positives and Pete:

• Ian Happ had two hits, one a double.
• Seiya Suzuki had a solo homer.
• Ryan Rolison threw a clean inning, striking out all three hitters.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong was hit by a pitch in four plate appearances.

Game 102, July 22: Tigers 5, Cubs 1 (57-45)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ian Happ (.038). 2-3, BB, 2B
• Hero/Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki/Ryan Rolison (.025). Suzuki: 1-4, HR, RBI, R; Rolison IP, 3 BF, 3 K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.212). 5 IP, 21 BF, 6 H, BB, 4 R, 5 K, HBP (L 7-7)
• Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.095). 0-4
• Kid: Michael Busch/Alex Bregman (-.074). Busch: 1-4, DP; Bregman: 1-4

WPA Play of the Game: Hao-Yu Lee’s three-run homer in the fourth basically put the game out of reach. (.307)

Cubs Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s solo homer in the bottom of the first. (.104)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 101 Winner: David Peterson received 43 of 80 votes, nudging PCA (35 of 80).

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
• Carson Kelly +17.5
• Michael Busch +15.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Alex Bregman +13
• Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -10
• Nico Hoerner -13
• Caleb Thielbar -14
• Dansby Swanson -16

Up Next: Game one of the 17-game gauntlet on Friday. They visit the Pirates (53-50). The Pirates swept the Brewers heading into the All-Star break and then took two of three from Cleveland coming out of it. So they’ve climbed back into the Wild Card race in the ultra-competitive NL. They sit with the eighth-best record in the NL, but that leaves them just one loss behind the Diamondbacks for the last wild card spot. So once again, the Cubs will be battling a team trying to jockey for position.

Matthew Boyd (6-1, 4.15) gets the opener of the series. He’s won his last four starts, allowing eight runs in 23.1 innings. At this point, that’s pretty much the best the Cubs have. Jared Jones (2-1, 4.05) makes his 10th start of the year for the Pirates. He’s coming off a win against Cleveland. He only threw five innings, but he struck out nine and allowed one earned run on three hits and a walk. He started four games against the Cubs back in 2024 and the Cubs hung a couple of losses on him. They posted 20 runs against him in 22.1 innings. This is a guy with only 31 starts. So, while those starts were a while ago, he doesn’t have a lot of body of work at the MLB level.

Start grinding. Start it with the win.

Congratulations to Yeison Morrobel, who has been named the #12 prospect in the 2026 LSB Midseason Community Prospect Rankings, receiving a little under a quarter of the vote.

Our list so far:

1 — Sebastian Walcott

2 — Caden Scarborough

3 — Malcolm Moore

4 — A.J. Russell

5 — Yolfran Castillo

6 — Rafe Perich

7 — Dylan Dreiling

8 — Josh Owens

9 — Jose Corniell

10 — Dalton Pence

11 — David Davalillo

12 — Yeison Morrobel

13 — Hector Osorio

Moving on…

Because there has been a history of vote-spamming shenanigans in the rankings, I used Google Forms for the last several of community rankings, and it worked out well, so we will use it again. You will need to include your LSB user name when you vote. If you don’t have an LSB user name, you need to use some sort of identifier. While this won’t eliminate the possibility of vote spamming, it will make it harder.

So who is the #14 prospect in the Rangers system right now?

Cast your vote below…

The Braves kick off a thin slate of games today at 12:15 pm ET. With a victory in the matinee to finish the homestand, they could:

• Reach win number 60 on the season
• Add another half game to their division lead (4 now after yesterday’s action concluded)
• Finally win a series against the San Diego Padres

The decision to make or ruin the rest of our Thursday is in the hands of the following gentlemen:

No real surprises here, even though the Padres made a last-minute change to announce Kyle Hart as their starter. Another opener? You shouldn’t have. Previously announced SP Griffin Canning is likely to follow. 

Drake Baldwin will catch for the third straight day and will keep the Ronald Acuña Jr. leadoff spot warm. Mike Yastrzemski, who served as the DH in his two games back from the IL, returns to right field and bat eighth as he seemingly does his rehab in the majors. Gwinnett’s too full of stars at the moment. Dominic Smith had a pinch-hit RBI last night and will start at DH today. 

Baby Brave Jim Jarvis rounds out the bottom of the lineup as he continues his extended run at shortstop.

For the Padres, things look similar to last night other than Xander Bogaerts moving up a couple spots in the order to hit fifth given his history against Chris Sale. Freddy Fermin will catch, Gavin Sheets will DH, and Jake Cronenworth moves down to bat ninth, which again makes sense due to his 0-for-11 streak against Sale. Last night’s DH Luis Rengifo remains in the two-hole, but he’ll get the start in left field. 

The Delta plane awaits to take the Braves up north to Baltimore and Queens – let’s make it a happy flight. First pitch is at 12:15 pm ET.

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There are only five games on the slate today, but that hasn't stopped our betting experts from digging into the slate to provide you with their favorite MLB picks.

Find out what you need to add to your betting card on July 23.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: Rays ML	+100
Jason Wilson: Diamondbacks/Cardinals - Over 8.5	+138

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rays moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

I'm fading the Toronto Blue Jays as much as I can.

Both clubs are in getaway spots, but the Tampa Bay Rays have a chance to complete the four-game sweep and have won eight of the last nine meetings. Ian Seymour is the reason Toronto is favored, but I'm not giving Shane Bieber a free pass after one good start.

Bieber has been one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball this season, ranking in the Bottom 10 among qualified starters in HR/9 and HR/FB while sitting dead last in both xERA and BlastContact%. His overall numbers remain ugly despite a solid outing last time out.

The last time I checked, you need to score runs to win games, and Toronto has been the worst team in baseball at doing so all season. The Blue Jays have scored just 10 runs in six games since the All-Star break, with their only win in that stretch coming in a 1-0 game against the White Sox.

They've also been outscored 23-5 through the first three games of this series while committing six errors. Tampa should be favored here, just like yesterday

• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV

Jason Wilson's expert pick: Diamondbacks/Cardinals - Over 8.5

Price: 42¢ (+138) at Polymarket

Brandon Pfaadt and Michael McGreevy are two starters whose underlying metrics ring all sorts of alarm bells.

Pfaadt was demoted to the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen and Triple-A this season, and hasn't missed any bats when at the big-league level.

McGreevy, for all his success, is a ticking time bomb with an expected ERA (5.35) almost 2.5 runs higher than his actual ERA (2.92). Both pitchers get barreled at a high rate, with the only real positives under the hood being their ability to limit walks.

But that also tells us they both live in the zone, and that's where the damage gets done. The Diamondbacks have also owned baseball's hottest offense over the last two weeks, scoring 66 runs in their last 10 games while slugging .478.

I don't trust McGreevy to weather that storm. If he somehow avoids the worst of it, the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen has shown it cannot hold the line.

And even if St. Louis' lineup has gone in the complete opposite direction in that time, Pfaadt is the guy to help turn that around. Trust in Jordan Walker's 100th-percentile bat speed.

• Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Diamondbacks.TV, Cardinals.TV

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out yesterday’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (49-48) won 6-5 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board in the first inning on a Biggio solo home run. They got another run in the 3rd inning on a Loperfido solo home run. McPherson got the start and went 5 innings allowing 3 runs while striking out 4. Sugar Land tied it up in the 6th inning on a Diaz RBI single. The pen was solid keeping the game tied as it went to extra innings. In the 10th, the Sounds scored 2 runs to take a 5-3 lead but in the bottom of the inning Sugar Land rallied for 3 runs on a Whitcomb RBI double, Guillemette bases loaded walk and walk-off Sacco bases loaded walk as Sugar Land won 6-5.

Note: Biggio has a .905 OPS this season.

• Cavan Biggio, LF: 2-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Joey Loperfido, RF: 2-for-5, 2 R, HR, RBI
• Shay Whitcomb, SS: 2-for-5, R, 2B, RBI
• Trenton Brooks, 1B: 2-for-5, R
• Ray Delgado, 2B: 1-for-3, 2 BB
• Garret Guillemette, C: 0-for-3, RBI, 2 BB
• Tommy Sacco, DH: 0-for-3, RBI, 2 BB
• Edwin Diaz, 3B: 1-for-2, RBI, 2 BB

• Brandon McPherson, RHP: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Bryan King, LHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Cody Bolton, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Christian Roa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (WIN)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (43-49) won 10-9 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the first inning scoring a run on a Bush steal of home. They scored 2 runs in the 2nd inning on a Whitaker solo home run and Hernandez solo home run. Hertzler got the start for the Hooks and struggled allowing 7 runs, though only 1 was earned. The Sod Poodles got a run in the 5th but the Hooks responded with 2 runs on an error. After the Sod Poodles scored again in the 6th, Call connected on a 3 run home run in the bottom of the inning to make it 9-8. In the 8th, Austin tied the game with a solo home run. In the 9th, the Hooks walked it off on an Encarnacion grounder as the Hooks won 10-9.

Note: Austin has a .841 OPS this season.

• Yamal Encarnacion, 2B: 1-for-6, R, 2B, RBI
• Trevor Austin, 3B: 2-for-3, R, HR, RBI, 2 BB
• Will Bush, 1B: 0-for-4, 2 R, BB, SB
• Walker Janek, C: 1-for-4, R, BB, 2 SB
• Chase Call, LF: 1-for-4, R, HR, 3 RBI, BB
• Cameron Sisneros, DH: 0-for-2, R, 3 BB
• Tyler Whitaker, RF: 3-for-4, R, HR, RBI, BB
• Alberto Hernandez, 2B: 2-for-5, R, HR, RBI

• Cole Hertzler, RHP: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 7 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Alex Santos, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (WIN)

A+: Asheville Tourists (32-57)

Game One – lost 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

Santos started for Asheville and had a solid outing allowing 2 runs over 5 innings while striking out 9. Asheville got on the board in the top of the 6th on a Frey RBI single but that was it from the offense as they dropped game one, 2-1.

Note: Thomas has 17 doubles this season.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 1-for-3, R, 2B
• Ethan Frey, RF: 1-for-3, RBI, SB
• Anthony Huezo, LF: 1-for-3, 2B

• Yeriel Santos, RHP: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
• Raimy Rodriguez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Game Two – lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the first inning on a Huezo RBI single. Cruz got the start in game two and allowed 3 runs, 2 earned, over 3.1 innings of work. Asheville rallied in the 6th to tie the game on a Huezo solo home run and Nunez RBI single. In the bottom of the 7th, the Hot Rods walked it off as Asheville fell 4-3.

Note: Huezo has a .945 OPS in High-A.

• Justin Thomas, RF: 1-for-4, R
• Jack Moss, 1B: 1-for-3, BB, SB
• Anthony Huezo, LF: 2-for-3, R, HR, 2 RBI
• Zach Daudet, SS: 1-for-2, R, BB, SB
• Alejandro Nunez, 3B: 1-for-3, RBI

• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Conor Steinbaugh, RHP: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (45-45) lost 9-6 (BOX SCORE)

After a scoreless inning from Smith, Forcucci came on for the second but struggled allowing 5 runs, 4 earned over 1.1 innings. The Woodpeckers got on the board in the 2nd inning on an error and then in the 5th they rallied for 4 runs to tie it on an Alvarez RBI single, Luciano 2 run double and Cauro sac fly. The Woodpeckers took the lead in the 7th on a Wakefield RBI single but the Nationals tied it at 7 in the bottom of the inning. In the 8th inning, the Nationals scored 3 runs to take the lead. The offense was unable to respond as the Woodpeckers fell 9-6.

Note: Alvarez is hitting .338 over his last 15 games.

• Josh Wakefield, DH: 0-for-4, RBI
• German Ramirez, 2B: 2-for-4, R, 2B
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 2-for-4, 2 R, RBI
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 1-for-4, R, 2B, 2 RBI
• Jadyn Fielder, 1B: 1-for-4
• Brandon Nigh, SS: 1-for-3, BB
• DJ Newman, RF: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B

• Aubrey Smith, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Ryan Forcucci, RHP: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 0 K
• Grayson Saunier, RHP: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Ryan Verdugo, RHP: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: TBD – 7:05 CT

CC: Brett Gillis – 6:35 CT

AV: Kellan Oakes – 6:35 CT

FV: TBD – 5:35 CT

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One of the smallest slates we’ve endured all season, just five games to sweat out and have a little fun with. That usually means fewer options, but it also means the edges stand out a little more.

So, without further ado, here are today’s MLB moneyline predictions as we dive into the tiny slate with my MLB picks for Thursday, July 23.

MLB moneyline picks for July 23

Matchup	Pick
Padres vs Braves	-233
Twins vs Guardians	+130
Rays vs Blue Jays	+102
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals	+111
Royals vs Tigers	+190

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-23.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 23

Padres vs Braves: Braves (-233)

Braves win probability: 70%

Take the Atlanta Braves on the run line here. With Griffin Canning on the mound this afternoon, Atlanta should have plenty of success at the dish.

Canning enters as one of the lowest rated pitchers on this small slate, per Batters-Box, while the Braves own one of the highest rated offenses of the day. The San Diego Padres right hander has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last five outings, while allowing a 45.45% hard hit rate.

Chris Sale has been nails all season. At home, he owns a 1.35 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a 25.23% strikeout rate, giving Atlanta a sizable edge on the mound.

Twins vs Guardians: Twins (+130)

Twins win probability: 44%

Are we finally watching Taj Bradley put it all together?

The Minnesota Twins right hander owns a 3.19 ERA, 2.77 xERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a 32% strikeout rate over his last five starts. We've always known he can rack up strikeouts, but limiting runs has been the biggest question.

With Cleveland Guardians right hander Gavin Williams carrying a 5.09 ERA over his last three starts, I think it's worth taking a shot on the Twins at +130.

Rays vs Blue Jays: Rays (+102)

Rays win probability: 50%

Give me the Tampa Bay Rays as a dog against the most lifeless team in baseball. Please, give me them at plus money.

The Toronto Blue Jays own a 43 wRC+ over their last six games, a 76 over their last 12, and a 67 over their last 21. Their offense is nonexistent. Meanwhile, the Rays have posted a 124 wRC+, .342 wOBA, and .780 OPS across their last 21 games.

Sure, Ian Seymour has not been the most sustainable arm in the Rays rotation, but you're going to tell me Shane Bieber, who owns a 5.70 ERA, 5.35 xERA, and 1.73 WHIP across his last five starts, is the better option?

Rays.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals: Diamondbacks (+111)

Diamondbacks win probability: 48%

Another misprice in my opinion.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are sitting at +111 against a St. Louis Cardinals team that owns a 69 wRC+, .267 wOBA, and .580 OPS over its last six games. Meanwhile, Arizona's offense is finally coming alive, posting a 151 wRC+, .390 wOBA, and .903 OPS over that same span.

What's even more impressive is how well Brandon Pfaadt has been throwing the ball lately. Over his last five starts, he owns a 2.86 ERA, 2.75 xERA, and 1.14 WHIP. On the other side, Michael McGreevy has been solid, but is this Cardinals offense really going to give him enough support tonight?

Give me the Diamondbacks at plus money.

Royals vs Tigers: Royals (+190)

Royals win probability: 34%

I am not the biggest fan of the 2026 Kansas City Royals, but they are clearly seeing the ball much better over their last few games than the Detroit Tigers. I think getting them at +190 is worth the squeeze on a team that owns a .762 OPS, 115 wRC+, and a 42% hard hit rate across its last 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have posted a 100 wRC+, .311 wOBA, and a 24% strikeout rate over their last six games.

Sure, Tigers right hander Troy Melton has been great, and Randy Dobnak's underlying metrics point toward some serious regression, but at +190, I think the Royals are worth a sprinkle.

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The Atlanta Braves host the San Diego Padres in the series-deciding finale. If the Braves win, they will have won three of the four games. A victory this morning secures a series split for the Padres.

The four-game set has been highly competitive, as the Braves are coming off a dramatic 7-6 win last night. Rookie shortstop Jim Jarvis broke up a 1-1 tie with a run-scoring double that scored Mauricio Dubon in a six-run eighth-inning rally. The Friars responded with a five-run top of the ninth that fell short of tying the game. 

Taking the mound: Chris Sale (ATL) vs Kyle Hart (SD)

The Braves ace, Chris Sale, will take the hill in the series finale. He has been dominant in 18 starts this season. The left-hander has struck out 123 batters in 105.0 innings pitched.

Today’s game plan is simple, as Sale wants to set the tone early with scoreless innings before handing a lead off to the bullpen. Surprisingly, Sale still generates weak contact from opposing lineups after 16 major league seasons. 

Sale is making his second start following his 10th All-Star Game appearance, and he reached a milestone in his last appearance. Sale recorded his 2,700th career strikeout in a start against the Texas Rangers. 

The Padres will start Kyle Hart as the opener this morning. But Griffin Canning (1-8, 6.67 ERA) will work the bulk innings, as he will try to turn his 2026 campaign around. The veteran right-hander had his troubles against the Braves this season. Earlier, he allowed four runs in less than two-thirds of an inning at Petco Park. 

Canning will need to be more aggressive in the strike zone. However, consistency has been missing all season. Canning desperately needs to have a good outing, as he allowed 13 runs over his last 16.1 innings pitched.

Friars skipper Craig Stammen may have a short leash for him in today’s contest. If he shows any signs of trouble, Canning will be removed from the game. Stammen has to give his team an opportunity to even the series.

Today’s starting lineups

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The Toronto Blue Jays close out a rough four-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays this afternoon, with both sides priced at -110.

Toronto’s bats have gone missing for most of this series, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting the ball as hard as he has all year, and he's the focus of my Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions.

Read on for my MLB picks for this Thursday, July 23 matchup.

Rays vs Blue Jays predictions

Rays vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+125)

While I won’t ever base a bet on one swing, I saw some great cuts from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Wednesday’s loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.

In his first at-bat, he crushed a double the other way to right field at 105 mph, narrowly missing a home run. He’s swinging hard trying to drag this offense out of its rut, and I expect that to translate against Rays starter Ian Seymour.

As I’ll get into below, Seymour serves up meatball fastballs. He’s allowed a homer in four straight starts, and opponents own a .497 xSLG against his fastball, sinker and cutter.

Guerrero also holds the platoon advantage here, carrying a .762 OPS and 121 wRC+ against southpaws, far above his numbers vs. righties.

I’d play this to +110.

COVERS INTEL:Guerrero topped 105 mph exit velocity on all four of his balls in play Wednesday, and he now draws a pitcher who lives up in the zone with his fastball.

Rays vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen worked hard on Wednesday, and fatigue tends to show up late in a series, while Ian Seymour’s penchant for allowing homers gives Toronto a path to runs of its own. 

I’ll add Vladdy Over 0.5 hits, leaning on the same hard contact behind my best bet, then finish with the Blue Jays on the moneyline — banking on the home side finally breaking out with a statement win in the finale.

Rays vs Blue Jays SGP

• Blue Jays moneyline
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 hits
• Over 8.5

Rays vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+280)

By all accounts, Kazuma Okamoto is the best home run bet on the board. 

He’s the perfect foil for Rays starter Ian Seymour, who carries a 1.6 HR/9, has allowed a homer in four straight outings and owns a bad fastball.

The left-hander has a very good changeup (+9 run value), but his fastball grades out below average (-2 run value), and the heat maps show it sitting high in the zone.

Enter Okamoto, who owns a +12 run value against the four-seamer, slugs .578 on that pitch, and leads the Blue Jays with five home runs against lefties this season. 

The matchup works on both the pitch mix and the platoon side, which makes him the best home run bet on the card.

I’d bet this to +250 but no shorter, at my standard quarter unit.

Rays vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Tampa Bay -110 | Toronto -110
• Run line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+150) | Toronto +1.5 (-175)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)

Rays vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have seen the Over cash in eight of their last 12 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Rays vs Blue Jays and game info

Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Rays vs Blue Jays weather

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The St. Louis Cardinals host the Arizona Diamondbacks as -112 favorites tonight at Busch Stadium.

With Brandon Pfaadt toeing the rubber for Arizona opposite Michael McGreevy, my Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals predictions are favoring the home side and the Over.

I explain why in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 23, below.

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Cardinals today: Cardinals (-112)

I'm no longer a believer in Brandon Pfaadt. I was high on the Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander as a prospect and into his first full season in the rotation in 2024. His 4.71 ERA that year seemed fake, as he boasted an expected ERA of 3.73 and a 3.61 FIP with a 24.3% strikeout rate. In other words, there was a clear path for improvement.

That hasn't happened. His 2025 was a disaster, and 2026 found him back in the minors for a spell while splitting time between the bullpen and rotation with the top club. His 4.58 ERA isn't far off his xERA, and his ability to miss bats has regressed, with a 15th-percentile whiff rate and a strikeout rate in the 14th. 

Opponents own a 9% barrel rate against him (29th percentile), and while he's pitched better since returning to the rotation, there's way too much smoke to ignore the fire. 

Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt are among the bats who will feast on Pfaadt's offerings early, giving the St. Louis Cardinals enough of a lead that the bullpen won't blow it this time.

The relief corps' shakiness is the only reason I'm not taking the run line, as it's shown that a big lead can evaporate in the blink of an eye.

Play to -120. 

COVERS INTEL: Walker's breakout is legitimate, and his 100th-percentile bat speed helps him catch up to high-velocity arms and to really punish those like Pfaadt, who might touch 94.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+140)

Pfaadt and Michael McGreevy give up regular and loud contact.

McGreevy has limited the damage well enough, as indicated by his 2.92 ERA, but it's simply not sustainable. I like him to outpitch Pfaadt, but that's about it.

He's also stepping in against baseball's hottest offense. The Diamondbacks have scored a whopping 66 runs over their last 10 games in the past two weeks.

The Cardinals have watched theirs dry up a bit in that span, but Pfaadt's deficiencies will help reignite St. Louis' bats.

I'd play this down to even money and would even consider Over 9.5 at +180 or longer.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals weather

A high-pressure system with winds blowing toward home plate could suppress fly ball distance, limiting home run potential at Busch Stadium, so the scoring may come by a stream of consistent contact where the ball stays in play.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks +104 | Cardinals -108
• Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-178) | Cardinals -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+150) | Under 8.5 (-156)

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals trend

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Cardinals and game info

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals latest injuries

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