PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 16: A detail shot of baseballs in a New York Mets equipment bag prior to the game between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, July 16, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Trevor Hayes/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Meet the Mets
For the last time in 2026, the Mets hit the road as they face the Rangers and the Nationals to close out the season.
Tim Britton examined what went the “most wrong” for the Mets in a season where, seemingly, everything went wrong.
Will Sammon wrote about what it would mean for Steve Cohen to add ‘certain voices’ to the Mets’ front office.
Laura Albanese wondered whether the Mets can convince Andy Green to stay on as manager.
In case you are looking for reasons to be hopeful heading into 2027, Will Leitch selected the Mets as one of his six candidates that will make their postseason dreams come true next season.
The Mets are sharing a behind-the-scenes look at their scouting process on Thursday with Search for Tomorrow.
Ahead of his last game in the radio booth, Howie Rose’s daughter shared a heartwarming ‘full circle’ moment.
Jonah Tong was selected as the “player to watch” on the Mets for the final week of the regular season.
Mitch Voit was named Minor League Player of the Year for the Mets.
Jonathan Santucci was named to the Eastern League All-Star Team!
Around the National League East
The Nationals were blitzed 9-2 by the Tigers.
The Phillies have quite the bullpen puzzle in front of them, but they’re letting it ‘play out’ ahead of the playoffs.
Mark Bowman analyzed how the Braves could set up their postseason rotation during the final week of the season.
Around Major League Baseball
The final MLB Power Rankings of the 2026 regular season reveal some familiar teams at the top.
There are a lot of things up for grabs in the final week of the regular season. Here are nine things to watch out for in the season’s final stretch.
Andrew Simon explained how a three-team tie in the NL Wild Card race would play out.
The Yankees welcome the Rays to the Bronx this week and are determined to keep their division rivals from celebrating an AL East title on their home turf.
Alex Bregman suffered some facial fractures after getting hit with a line drive while standing on the on deck circle. Incredibly, a postseason return remains possible for Bregman.
Dylan Cease is uncertain for the rest of the season after an MRI showed that he has right shoulder inflammation.
Comerica Park, the Tigers’ home stadium, will be renamed Fifth Third Park starting next year.
Yuri Teramoto, a freshman who plays baseball at Shohei Ohtani’s old high school (Hanamaki Higashi High School in Iwate Prefecture, Japan, nailed her first pitch at Dodger Stadium.
Pete Alonso hit his 40th home run of the season to lead the Orioles past the Blue Jays 4-3.
The Giants topped the Twins 5-2.
Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue
Linus Lawrence provided a Monday Stat Party that focused on, among other things, Pete Alonso’s return, Carson Benge’s rookie record, and Howie Rose’s final week.
With his flow flyin’ Miguel Vargas pocketed his second career Player of the Week honors on Monday. | (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)
Miguel Vargas has had a career year this year for the Chicago White Sox, with 33 home runs, 88 RBIs, 31 doubles, a triple and 20 steals, all while scoring 101 runs and slashing .251/.362/.482 with a 5.3 WAR and 135 OPS+. He’s become to become just the third White Sox player in history with at least 30 homers and 20+ steals in a season, and is the only player in White Sox history to add at least 20 doubles and 100 runs to the mix.
Quite simply, Vargas is the most important reason why the South Siders go into the final week of the regular season on the verge of their first winning season in five years, and have a shot at not only making the playoffs for the first time since then but possibly winning their first AL Central crown since then as well.
And Vargas is not coasting to the finish, continuing to lead the White Sox offense over the past week, as he hit .348 with a double, three homers, nine RBIs and two steals to take his second career MLB Player of the Week honors. The 26-year-old, first-time All-Star helped the White Sox to wins in four of seven games during that stretch.
Vargas’ full capabilities were on display in a key 3-1 victory for the White Sox this past Saturday, as he hit his team-leading 33rd homer to lead off the bottom of the sixth, an absolute blast to left field bleachers that finished off the eventual final 3-1 score:
While Vargas has not been as much of a standout on the defensive end, he’s held his own and routinely tears off all-out on balls hit anywhere near him. He’s also proven to have some cat-like reflexes when stationed right at home at third base, as evidenced in the top of the fourth of that Saturday win:
Undoubtedly, Vargas has been a crucial contributor on both offense and defense throughout this season, and is a primary reason why the White Sox are in prime position to make their first playoff appearance and have their first winning season in five years.
In a fun little coincidence, Chicago White Sox CHSN reporter Brooke Fletcher’s husband, Jake Cronenworth, was also Vargas’ Player of the Week counterpart in the NL:
SARASOTA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 18: Aron Estrada #79 of the Baltimore Orioles poses for a photo during Spring Training photo day at Ed Smith Stadium on February 18, 2026 in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Orioles have a number of interesting and exciting prospects who are now in their system. However, if you’ve been following my contributions to Camden Chat’s minor league coverage through this season, or if you read the title of this article, you already know that there’s only one prospect who is my guy: 21-year-old switch-hitting infielder Aron Estrada, who spent most of this season with Double-A Chesapeake. My guy Aron Estrada had a pretty good year there.
A prime qualification for a prospect ending up as “my guy” is that he starts out as a not-super-heralded prospect who just keeps performing at every level he plays. Estrada, a $175,000 signing from the 2022 international amateur class, has inhabited this role very well. He’s under six feet tall and his listed weight (probably from when he signed as a 16-year-old) is 142 pounds, so there are a lot of comments about his being “undersized” in scouting reports. Those kinds of players always get the “He’ll have to prove himself at every level” label.
Estrada is proving himself with how he’s hit for at least three years. That’s the fun thing. Starting two years ago in Delmarva, on through Aberdeen last year, and now in Chesapeake this year, he has done well, particularly for a player who is as young as he has been at each of those levels. The Double-A assignment this year saw Estrada facing competition that was, on average, two and a half years older than he is, and he responded to that by hitting .281/.325/.482 over 128 games, with a handful at Triple-A Norfolk over the last week of that season.
New to the results for Estrada this season was home run power. He hit nine homers in 2024 and ten in 2025. Estrada finished this season with 25 home runs. Although this power increase did come with a slight bump in his strikeout rate, we’re still talking just a 17.9% strikeout rate for the season for the Venezuelan infielder. The major league Orioles, as a team, have struck out 24.8% of the time with several once-promising prospects well above this.
My guy though he may be, this home run surge does come with a bit of a caveat. Minor league home run totals were up all across the board this season. Baseball America’s JJ Cooper noted that a year ago, all minor leagues had 18 players hit at least 25 homers, the same number Estrada hit this season. This year, there were 75 players to reach that plateau.
It’s good that Estrada was one of the 57 “extra” guys, but it does remain to be seen how much was durable improvement on his part and how much he may have benefited from some kind of fluke year of offense-friendly baseballs that won’t carry over to next year or to the majors. One way this is illustrated in the statistics is that over the previous two seasons, he had wRC+ numbers of 129 and 135. (That’s weighted runs created, a park- and league-adjusted stat where 100 is average and higher is better.) That’s good! In 2026, despite superficially better batting, Estrada “only” had a 100 – that is, exactly a league average bat for the level.
That’s also good! Keep in mind that Estrada’s primary position has been second base. If the Orioles had a league average bat at second base, the Orioles would be doing a lot better and we’d feel better about them for the future as well. Instead, you know, Jackson Holliday’s whole deal.
There is a long way from success in Chesapeake to success in Baltimore, as O’s fans have become accustomed to with prospects not turning into medium-term quality major leaguers. It’s no guarantee that Estrada can continue to perform at least acceptably at the plate at Triple-A, where he’ll almost certainly start next season. Or at least, once next season starts for him. Estrada becomes Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason, which means the Orioles must (or at least should) add him to the 40-man roster in November, just in case there is a Rule 5 on the far side of the lockout. As such, he’ll be locked out along with all other 40-man players on all teams and unable to participate even if Triple-A baseball begins as scheduled.
In a belated “preseason” prospect list published in mid-May, FanGraphs rated Estrada as just the #25 Orioles prospect, writing that “the swing itself is scary,” with particular concerns that his lefty-batting swing will be challenged when facing average-or-better velocity high in or above the strike zone. That ranking noted Estrada’s early struggle in Double-A this season.
It is the case that Estrada struggled in April, posting just a .624 OPS for the month, however, he went on to post OPS numbers of .850 or better for each of the next four months. That looks like a guy who made a successful adjustment to the level as the year went on, to me, and perhaps that list engaged in some recency bias by overindexing the April struggles.
The switch hitter batted much better from the left side than he did the right this season. Batting as a lefty and facing righties, Estrada OPSed .873, hitting 22 of his 25 homers. When batting right-handed and facing southpaws, he had a .662 OPS and just three homers. For me, if your weak side is lefties, that’s preferable, because there aren’t as many of those, and a .662 OPS is playable against lefties, unlike how Samuel Basallo and Colton Cowser have performed at the majors this season. Who knows how the fanatical platoon “advantage” weirdos running the Orioles will look at it if it comes to that.
That FanGraphs report thinks Estrada will end up in left field rather than second base. Most other rankings seem to believe Estrada will be fine staying at second base, which is why he was much higher than 25th on our composite prospect ranking before the year – Estrada was 13th on the Camden Chat combined list.
Up until this season, the Orioles moved Estrada around the diamond a lot, but in 2026 he only played at second or as a designated hitter. That seems to suggest that the team believes that he can stay at that position and they shouldn’t pretend he has “versatility” that maybe he doesn’t actually have. Defense in the minors is one of those largely opaque things for even engaged fans. There aren’t any kind of public metrics. You just have to go off the scouting reports and hope for the best.
Role for 2027
Estrada is going to have to prove himself at Triple-A before he can really be considered on track for an MLB job. It shouldn’t be hard to get him playing time at second base at Norfolk next year, though for those who want to see Holliday demoted, that would make things a bit more complicated for my guy Estrada. If he can play well at the highest minor league level in his age 22 season, he should be in line for a big league role by Opening Day 2028, if not sooner. I’m excited to see what he has to offer next season.
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 17: A general view of empty seats after a game between the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on September 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, Purple Row!
The Colorado Rockies were off on Monday, so everyone is rested and ready as the final week of the 2026 MLB season begins to unfold.
Tonight, the Rockies will welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to Coors Field in what promises to be a wild week for the D-backs and Padres as each contends for the final Wild Card spot. The Padres will play four games against the Dodgers before welcoming the Snakes to Petco Park for the final series of the season.
And the Rockies will be able to act as a spoiler in this race, as well, as the White Sox quest for their playoff spot.
It’s a lot!
Now to the news of the day.
Rockies news & links
The Rockies Have an Ezequiel Tovar Problem on Their Hands | Just Baseball — Eric Treuden considers the Rockies options in dealing with Tovar’s contract. As he writes, “As this season enters its final days, Tovar has just 11 home runs with 42 RBI, a 52 wRC+, and -0.6 fWAR. He has MLB’s lowest wRC+ (next lowest is Jarren Duran, who is 14 points higher than Tovar) and his fWAR is only higher than Salvador Perez, who’s at -1.3. To put it simply, things aren’t looking pretty.”
10 Sleeper NL Hitting Prospects To Watch In 2027 | Baseball America ($) — Geoff Pontes has placed Rockies IF Wilder Dalis (No. 24 PuRP) to his list. He writes, “Dalis’ underlying data is impressive. He posted a 14.4% in-zone whiff rate and above-average power metrics for a 20-year-old while also logging a 104.6 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, 44.2% hard-hit rate and 23% barrel rate. He’s still learning to pull the ball in the air, but his hard-hit launch angle of 12.1 degrees is very workable.” He added the Dalis will need to work on plate discipline, but improvement in this area would move him up a prospect ranking lists.
Michelle: A tribute | Dave Barry’s Substack — Yes, it’s that Dave Barry, and here he’s writing about his wife, Michelle Kaufman, who got fired in the media bloodletting last week. Just read it.
Remembering some guys
Giants pitcher Anthony Molina might be exactly what the team needed | The Athletic ($ — gift link) — This falls squarely into “Remembering Some Guys” territory, but it’s great to see Molina hitting his stride, as Grant Brisbee suggests. He argues for successful development (ignoring his time with the Rockies) that Molina saw with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Atlanta Braves in addition to a new arm angle. Whether Molina continues to be successful next season will be a story to watch.
This week on the internet
True story.
Kevin Henry and I were in the dugout when Rockies public relations staff filmed this video.
Oh, it was soooo close to becoming a day of celebration Sunday. But it became a day where the Cubs had to wait until Tuesday to see whether Chicago wins or Arizona loses to clinch a playoff spot, and to hear the official results on the condition of Alex Bregman. There wouldn’t have been much of the former with the latter hanging over the team’s head.
But let’s go to the on-field review of the Cubs’ weekend. Two wins gave the team the series win after a bad loss Friday night. The two games had hitting galore, extremely good starting pitching and impressive bullpen results.
On offense, three hitters led the way with very good performances over the two days. Michael Busch went 3-for-7 with a walk, two runs scored and a solo home run, his 20th. Seiya Suzuki went 3-for-8 with a walk, two runs scored and also a solo home run, Suzuki’s 25th. And Nico Hoerner also went 3-for-8, but surprisingly, no home runs. Hoerner had a run scored, a double and two RBI.
In Saturday’s game, in addition to the contributions from the above players, Dansby Swanson showed that his was ready to be back with the team, going 2-for-4 with two runs scored and another solo home run, but it was only his 19th. And Matt Shaw had an RBI on a sacrifice fly.
On Sunday, after going 0-for-5 Saturday, PCA bounced back by going 3-for-5 (ho-hum, a hit short of a cycle), with his 30th double, his 45th home run and his 38th stolen base as well as three runs scored (118) and two RBI (107).
Bregman, who went 0-for-4 with a walk Saturday, went 1-for-1 with a run scored and an RBI before leaving the game. Ian Happ, who walked while pinch-hitting and scored a run Saturday, went 2-for-5 Sunday with a double, a run scored and an RBI. Michael Conforto and Pedro Ramirez only played on Sunday. Ramirez went 3-for-5 with a RS and two RBI, while Conforto hit a solo HR, his 15th.
On the mound, Matthew Boyd looked like he was cruising for his first win in his last seven starts. He allowed only a walk over the first four innings. In the fifth, Boyd gave up two hits and a walk to turn his 2-0 lead to a 2-2 tie (one run was unearned). After Busch’s home run made it, 3-2, Boyd became the pitcher of record and improved his record to 9-5.
Daniel Palencia actually became the pitching star of Saturday, along with the rest of his bullpen mates. He took over for Boyd starting the sixth. Palencia pitched a perfect two innings with three strikeouts — by far his best outing since returning from the IL. Aaron Civale, Ryan Jeferzahn and Ryan Rolison combined to pitch a scoreless last two innings for the win.
Sunday, the starter, David Peterson, was marvelous, making his bid for the playoff rotation — he’s got the hot hand right now. With the Cubs up, 8-1, Peterson finished six innings on 83 pitches, 54 for strikes, allowed one run on three hits and a walk while having struck out seven to improve to 5-2 as a Cub. The run he allowed came on a CSPSHR*. After Peterson retired with the huge lead, Caleb Thielbar, Edward Cabrera, and Chris Rea each pitched a scoreless inning to close out the win and the series.
I appreciate your reading.
Complimentary Starting Pitcher Solo Home Run*
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Vanessa Serrao (Yardbarker): Pete Crow-Armstrong makes more Cubs history in win over Reds. “Chicago Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to be a massive threat on the basepaths, as he recorded his ninth game with a home run and a stolen base.”
Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): Justin Steele Won’t Be Able to Help 2026 Cubs, Except Through a Poignant Morale Boost. “The Cubs could really, really use the former version of erstwhile ace Justin Steele in October, even as a short reliever. Alas, that guy’s still unavailable. All the current version of Steele can offer is a nice moment this week at Wrigley Field.”
Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): Could David Peterson Be Chicago Cubs’ Playoff Ace? “Let’s be honest with one another: the Cubs’ starting rotation doesn’t have any sure things. If you want the hottest hand holding the baseball when the postseason begins, it might be the big left paw of David Peterson.”
Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): The Various Hopes for the Alex Bregman Situation. “What a whipsaw the last few days have been for Alex Bregman. His continued second half dominance to his big racehorse win to taking a freak foul ball off the face and having to be rushed to the hospital.”
Jackson Stone (MLB.com): Who needs to step up if Cubs make a run in October? “With just six games remaining until playoff baseball, who will the Cubs need to step up in order to make a run at the World Series in a National League field filled with strong contenders?”
Thomas Domol (North Side Baseball): Cubs Week in Review: Reinforcements Put North Siders on Precipice of Postseason. “Injuries and slumps have forced fans of the 2026 Cubs to wonder what this team would look like at full strength. With Dansby Swanson returning and a few players returning to form, they got a glimpse of that—and then, alas, an eyeful.”
Friends and fans describe Granvil Poynter’s music as a blend of Texas blues with a 50’s rock and roll twist. Born and raised in a small town in Arkansas, Granvil fell in love with music at an early age. His reverence for the Blues musicians that came before him is evident in his music. His inspirations were early Blues Musicians Muddy Waters, Freddy King, Buddy Guy and later blues loving artists Eric Clapton, Stevie Ray Vaughan and Jimmy Vaughan.
However, it was his move to Texas that truly allowed him to flourish and establish himself as a standout voice in the blues genre. He has won best blues artist in the San Antonio music awards. Billy F. Gibbons has tapped him for shows with ZZ Top and for Mr. Gibbon’s solo tour. His captivating stage presence and heartfelt performances have earned him a devoted following and critical acclaim from both fellow musicians and dedicated blues enthusiasts.
Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.
Duke Ellis of the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders runs the bases during a Minor League Baseball game at Coca-Cola Park in Allentown, United States, on May 23, 2026. (Photo by Dan Squicciarini/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
That’s all, folks. We’ve reached the end of the road for the 2026 minor league season. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders officially concluded things on Saturday, which also served as a retirement for the RailRiders (shoutout Clint Frazier). Tampa was unfortunately not able to bring some gold back home, losing in Game 3 of the FSL Championship Series.
If you still have an MiLB itch to scratch, the Arizona Fall League begins in two weeks as six Yankees prospects take on the desert, headlined by top prospect Dax Kilby. I’ll be there to chronicle all that, but for now, here’s the end of the minor league slate:
Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Record: 41-31 (78-68), 2.5 GB in the International League East after a 3-2 week against the Rochester Red Wings (Nationals)
Run differential: +55 (+58)
The RailRiders are no more. The final games that the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate will ever play as the RailRiders came and went this last week, as they were unable to make up a self-inflicted deficit in the division to prolong their season. Sunday’s game was cancelled, so an extra-innings thriller on Saturday night was how the season concluded. They won on a walk-off wild pitch in the 10th, and get this: the winning pitcher was emergency catcher Edinson Duran, who was used once Justin Topa reached a pitch count. What an awesome way for the name to go out on.
It was a strong final week for guys like Jasson Domínguez (7-for-19, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 2B, 4 BB) and J.C. Escarra (7-for-21, HR, 2 RBI, 2B), two guys who undoubtedly thought they’d spend more of this season with the big league club. Marco Luciano also capped off a really strong season that should earn him a 40-man spot and audition for 2027 next spring. A cool storyline from this week was 2025 10th-rounder Connor McGinnis getting another aggressive promotion to finish the season, to finish a strong debut season that’s been mostly spent in Double-A. He went 2-for-5 with a double, two RBI, and two walks in his cup of coffee in Scranton.
It was not a good final week of the season for a rotation. The recent progress made by Alexander Cornielle fizzled out with a mediocre final start, while the quartet of prospects didn’t end on a high note. Kyle Carr never got fully built up, but he was once again not able to finish three innings in his start. Both Brendan Beck and Elmer Rodríguez failed to finish the fifth to end their strong seasons at the level, while Xavier Rivas took a step back in a brief, three-inning start to end what was overall a big season for him.
The best part about the bullpen this week was a starter as a piggyback, as Adam Kloffenstein tossed six shutout innings in relief of Carr. Zach Messinger, Eric Reyzelman, and Bradley Hanner all pitched well in their two outings each this week.
A full-season review of the 2026 RailRiders will come next week, but I’ll end this with a tribute to Oswaldo Cabrera, who was DFA’d and claimed by the Reds. I’m happy he’ll be getting a fresh start in an organization that has less of a strict edict on winning. Players like him populate the benches of rosters around baseball, but organizations like the Yankees demand excellence from all 26 spots. Will be rooting for him.
Well, that stinks. Tampa’s incredible offense carried them all season long, but they face-planted at the wrong moment. In three games against Jupiter in the FSL Championship Series, they scored five total runs. Last time we talked, they had lost Game 1 last Sunday, but they had a chance to win the series early this week.
They won Game 2, 4-1. Wilberson De Pena and Diego Castellanos ripped RBI singles, while they scored the other two runs on an RBI walk and a wild pitch. Big day for Luis Puello, who went 3-for-5 with a double. Wyatt Parliament tossed five solid innings to conclude his debut season, while the bullpen behind him was sharp. Usual starter Tyler Boudreau tossed 1.2 innings, followed by Matthew Tippie, Pedro Rodriguez, and Greysen Carter for the save.
Game 3 was a pure pitcher’s duel. Neither team could score for eight innings. Tampa’s offense was completely flummoxed, striking out 16 times. The pitching was outstanding. JT Etheridge, who you’ll see in the Arizona Fall League, tossed six shutout innings to conclude a fantastic September. Jose Ledesma and Rafael Arias did their jobs to get it to the ninth, but Arias gave up a walk-off double to end the season in the bottom of the ninth. Heartbreaking for an incredible group.
Ellis is not a prospect anymore, but I’m giving him flowers in the season’s final week for reaching 60 stolen bases with a great final stretch. He steadily improved over the course of the season and has been a solid presence at the bottom of Scranton’s order. I would think the soon-to-be-29-year-old will sign with another organization next year, as even with his extremely niche skill set of being a designated pinch runner, the team just won’t have a roster spot for this Terrance Gore-type.
SPRINGDALE, AR - MARCH 31: Brett Squires #7 of the Northwest Arkansas Naturals poses for a photo during the Northwest Arkansas Naturals photo day at Arvest Ballpark on Tuesday, March 31, 2026 in Springdale, Arkansas. (Photo by Lacey Whitmer/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Royals left-handed pitching prospect David Shields (the club’s No. 4 prospect per MLB.com) was named the Paul Splittorff Pitcher of the Year. Meanwhile, Josh Hammond (No. 2) won the Alex Gordon Heart and Hustle Award.
Brett Squires was named the George Brett Hitter of the Year. The club also recognized Squires as the Mike Sweeney Community Impact Award recipient. He is the first player to win multiple organization awards in the same season.
Other award winners include the LP Langevin (Dan Quisenberry Reliever of the Year), Carson Roccaforte (Frank White Defensive Player of the Year) and Asbel Gonzalez (Willie Wilson Baserunner of the Year).
The city’s Special Committee for Legal Review on Monday advanced an ordinance that would place the question on the April 6 ballot during the 2027 spring municipal election. The proposal now goes to the full City Council for consideration.
The council’s pending approval appears to be a formality. City staff previously told The Star that if the petitioners filed a request to send their proposed ordinance to voters, the city’s charter would require the council to place the initiative on the ballot at the earliest eligible election, which would be April 6.
“Curt Nelson and I had wondered for years: How many games has Denny done? Denny has saved all of his scorecards, and years ago he turned them over to Curt. Curt asked for them, and so they’ve been in the Royals’ possession for years,” Lefebvre said on the broadcast. “And he and I have been saying one of these days we’ve got to find out how many games he’s done. Call it divine inspiration, instinct, whatever. But Curt and I finally said, ‘We’re either going to do this or we’re not going to do this.’ …
“But he and I got a group of about 10 to 15 Royals employees, and the Royals paid for lunch. And here come all the boxes of scorecards going back to 1969, and we actually counted all of them in about an hour. It didn’t take that long, and I’m glad we did. Sam Mellinger was in charge of tallying up the numbers, so someone would say, ‘OK, in 1972, we did 161 games,’ and we’re adding them up, and we’re tallying them up, tallying them up, and all of a sudden it hit us: ‘Oh my gosh, he’s going to do his 8,000th game this year.’”
I’m also struggling some with this particular edition because this is the first time since maybe 2022 where these games are just totally irrelevant. They were at least on the periphery of the race last year. They obviously made it to the dance two years ago. Even in 2023, we had Bobby Witt Jr.‘s ascent to stardom along with Cole Ragans, James McArthur (yes, his September was worthy of mention) and a bunch of other young guys trying like hell to make an impression. This year’s team is mostly guys we know are part of the future and have nothing to prove and guys we know aren’t part of the future and have nothing to prove.
Davy Andrews at FanGraphs went deep into the idea of an off-peak season for Bobby Witt Jr and his case for MVP.
This is Witt’s fifth major league season, and you could argue that it’s his fourth consecutive MVP-caliber campaign. Mind you, that argument would focus only on 2022, in which he put up 5.9 WAR, good for 10th in the majors. There’s no argument to be had about the 2024 and 2025 seasons. That said, along with Shohei Ohtani’s combined 9.2-WAR 2022 sesaon, they are the two most valuable seasons this decade for which a position player did not win an MVP. In 2024, Witt ran a 169 wRC+, stole 31 bases, and put up a Fielding Run Value of 11, fourth among all shortstops. That was good for 10.5 WAR, and it took the best season of Aaron Judge’s career – 58 home runs, a 19% walk rate, and a .322 batting average – to beat him. In 2025, Witt put up 8.0 WAR with a 130 wRC+, 38 steals, and 20 FRV, the best mark among all shortstops. Again, he was bested by a 10-win season from Judge and Cal Raleigh’s 60-homer campaign. Witt has never received a first place MVP vote.
Baseball America picked Kendry Chourio as the Royals minor league player of the year.
With the road slate of games completed this season, Kevin O’Brien at Royals Keep took a look at the struggles the Royals faced away from home.
Brian Burrows at Kings of Kauffman analyzes the bullpen through the lens of FanGraphs’ “Meltdowns” stat.
Speaking of the Tigers, corporate goons are renaming their stadium after two fractions, or rankings, or a bank, or whatever, I don’t care. It’s dumb. At least have the temerity to name it “First” or something.
The New York Giants ran up their healthcare bill in last night’s Monday Night Football game, which saw a slew of injuries for Big Blue. I saw “nightmare game” from…a lot of people on the internet.
Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac bought a pub next to Wrexham’s stadium so they can apparently make a Welsh version of all those American entertainment districts that our billionaires want so badly.
Paramount reached a settlement in the antitrust lawsuit, which apparently clears the way for them to complete their giant acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery. Yakko, Wakko, and Dot need to drum up some chaos to put a stop to this corporate ghoulish behavior.
It’s a bit outdated, but your song of the day is Yakko with the world country sing-along.
Monday was a well deserved off day for the Braves. However, there are still few games to be played and a few story lines to sort out as the postseason comes into focus. For one, it is still a really close race to determine who the Braves will actually play. The Braves also want to be fully confident that Robert Suarez will be ready to contribute, as he could be activated over the next few days to pitch this week in the majors.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 13: Edwin Diaz #3 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts as he leaves the game after allowing two runs to score for a 4-4 tie against the Milwaukee Brewers, during the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on August 13, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Los Angeles Dodgers have managed to work their way out of their usual late summer lull, by going 14-5 so far in the month of September. But they face a test starting Tuesday to see if they really are in postseason form.
This month, the Dodgers have beat up on below .500 teams in the Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, and San Francisco Giants. But they have one last team with a winning record to face before the playoffs – the San Diego Padres.
The Padres come in to this series winners of 13 of their last 14 games, needing two wins to secure a wildcard playoff spot. They have never made the playoffs three seasons in a row in the history of their franchise.
“I feel like the whole team is in a good spot right now,” San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. told the San Diego Union-Tribune on Sunday. “We’re playing really good baseball. We’re checking in when we have to. The entire lineup is in a good spot right now. So when it’s going like that, it’s … a good time.”
For their part, the Dodgers have a magic number of three to secure the second bye in the playoffs, which is important in setting the rotation that the Dodgers want.
“I think it’s going to be a good kind of (playoff) primer,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said of the upcoming series. “They’re a very talented team. They’re playing as good as anyone in all of baseball. I’m looking forward to playing those guys and just kind of ramping it up a little bit more for our guys.”
Andy Pages is expected to be activated off the IL on Tuesday, hopefully fully healed and ready to add to the Dodgers offensive firepower.
Doug Padilla of the OC Register covers more of the details of what the Dodgers are thinking in their last six games of the season here.
One of the things still up in the air as far as the postseason roster goes is the status of Edwin Diaz, and if he can make a positive impact in the playoffs.
Diaz returned from the IL on Friday, a has two scoreless outings. But is that enough to get back on Dave Roberts’ trust tree?
“It’s been really disappointing,” Díaz said of his season. “But now I’ve found growth to come back and perform the way everyone was expecting.”
Diaz was on the IL earlier this season after having surgery on bone chips in his elbow and he came back ready to return to the leverage part of the bullpen. Except he wasn’t actually ready.
Katie Woo of The Athletic covers all of the ins and outs of Diaz’s return and playoff roster hopes here:
“Everybody was telling me I have a new elbow, so just keep going, keep climbing the ladder,” Díaz said. “You will be fine. We trust you. They always stayed positive with me, and you know, I was positive too. I know when I’m right, I can do really good things. I just trusted the process with them. They stuck with me. They supported me. So I was OK.”
But he wasn’t ok. In his nine outings after returning from the IL, Diaz’s ERA swelled to 11.85. He landed back on the IL with neck inflammation. So far in this return, he seems to be doing better. But with only six games left, he only has three to four games to prove he’s playoff ready.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 19: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees looks on from the dugout during sixth inning of the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on September 19, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Boston Red Sox are going to face the New York Yankees in the American League Wild Card Series.
It’s still unclear whether or not they’ll face Aaron Judge…
Judge, who has been dealing with several different injuries this season, suffered a calf strain last week and was placed on the injured list (retroactive to Thursday) on Saturday. Judge is obviously going to be frustrated with situation, but perhaps even more so after he spent the majority of the regular season sidelined with a fractured rib and will likely finish the campaign slashing .241/.360/.511 with 18 home runs and 41 RBIs in 66 games — not exactly what we all expected.
“I’d like to be back by the postseason,” Judge told MLB Media’s Bryan Hoch. “That’s definitely the plan. [It’s the] 10-day IL, so the 10th day is probably the last game of the season. We’ll see. I’ve got really no answers for you on any timeline or anything like that.”
I, too, would like him to be back.
It’s pretty difficult arguing that you want to face the reigning AL MVP and one of the two best hitters of the 2020s, but let’s all be serious about the reality of the situation. If he makes his way back into the lineup for the postseason, you’ll be pitching to someone who has been sidelined for the majority of the last four months. It’s not like he’s been the same guy since returning earlier this month, either, as he went just 4-for-23 (.174) with one home run across six games since being activated on Sept. 8.
Judge at 50% is still better than most at 100%, but it is important to remember that he has found it somewhat difficult to stay productive in past postseasons.
2-for-8 in terms of productive stretches. 58-for-246 in terms of at-bats. 0-for-forever in terms of making enough of an impact to actually be considered a winning baseball player.
The Yankees absolutely would prefer to have him in the lineup, but it’s not an obvious choice right now. If they have to force him in they’ll either lose Luis Garcia Jr. or Ben Rice as the designated hitter or put someone with a bum calf in the outfield at Yankee Stadium. If they choose to let him fully heal and miss that first series, they can play both Rice (.889 OPS) and Garcia (.843 OPS) while having the space to play guys like Spencer Jones (1.177 OPS vs. LHP), and Paul Goldschmidt (.997 OPS vs. LHP).
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 13: Alex McFarlane #71 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches during the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on Sunday, September 13, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kathryn May/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Detroit Tigers opened up the penultimate series of the 2026 campaign with a 9-2 victory at Comerica Park — soon to be Fifth Third Park — on Monday night. River Ryan looked good in his debut wearing the Olde English D, while home runs at the bottom of the batting order from Spencer Torkelson and Javier Báez helped fuel the offensive output en route to victory.
Getting the start in Game 2 is right-hander Drew Anderson, who has been a perfectly serviceable member of the Tigers’ pitching staff this season after spending the majority of his past four seasons pitching in Asia. While a lion’s share of his appearances this year have been out of the bullpen, the 32-year-old has been a member of the starting rotation over his past eight outings, putting up a tidy 2.58 ERA but a less-impressive 4.82 FIP across 38 1/3 innings of work.
For the Nats, left-hander Jackson Kent will make his eighth start of the year in search of just the second quality start of his debut campaign. The 23-year-old has had a rough September so far, posting a brutal 7.62 ERA but a less offensive 4.40 FIP over 13 innings, allowing 16 hits (one home run) and eight walks while striking out 10 and uncorking a wild pitch. Washington has lost five of his seven appearances this season.
Here is a quick look at how the two hurlers match up on paper for the second of the three-game series in Detroit.
Detroit Tigers (74-83) vs. Washington Nationals (73-84)
Time (ET): 6:40 p.m. Place: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan SB Nation Site:Federal Baseball Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Game 158: RHP Drew Anderson (5-6, 3.62 ER) vs. LHP Jackson Kent (1-4, 6.40 ERA)
Sep 21, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso (25) celebrates a home run during the eighth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Jamie LeBlanc-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Happy Tuesday, Camden Chatters!
Last night, we got a reprieve from the misery that has been Orioles baseball lately. And we got it mostly thanks to Pete Alonso (who else). Alonso hit his 39th and 40th home runs of the season last night, powering the Orioles to a 4-3 victory over the Blue Jays. He’s now the 10th Oriole to have a 40-homer season, and his 108 RBI are the most in the American League. It’s Alonso’s first 40-homer season since 2023 and his fourth in his career.
Oh, and Alonso just happened to hit two homers on the day that his son, Teddy, celebrated his first birthday. What a guy.
Gunnar Henderson also homered, his 24th. Henderson had three hits in the game. Starting pitcher Shane Baz struggled through a three-run first inning, but went on to pitch 6.2 innings without allowing a run after the first. You can get the full details of the win in Alex Church’s recap.
By my estimation, the Orioles have been out of the race since the Red Sox swept them in early September. Now it seems like the White Sox or Guardians will take the final Wild Card spot, with the other winning the AL Central. The Blue Jays are basically out of it as well, and the Orioles have the chance in this series to ensure their AL East foe is truly finished.
The Orioles won’t go to the playoffs and they won’t have a winning season, but they can put the nail in the coffin for the Blue Jays. And if the Orioles win tonight and tomorrow, these teams will leave Baltimore with the Blue Jays in last place instead of the Orioles. It’s not something to get excited about, but it’s always preferable to NOT be in last place.
Tonight, it’ll be an old-man special as Chris Bassitt (37) and Max Scherzer (42) face off. It’s a rematch of the game on 9/11, in which both pitchers went five innings. Scherzer allowed six runs and took the loss, while Bassitt allowed two runs and got the win. I wouldn’t hate to see a repeat of that. The weather forecast today is pretty dicey, so hopefully they get the game in. I mean, I guess. Would it really matter if they didn’t?
Alonso homers twice to reach 40 and give Orioles 4-3 win over Blue Jays – MASN Sports Roch Kubatko’s game story has plenty of quotes about how amazing Pete Alonso is, but also includes some info on Samuel Basallo, who exited last night’s game after being hit square in the mask with a foul ball. Be ok, Samuel! Knocks to the head are scary.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! You have a ton of Orioles birthday buddies, each more forgettable than the last. But because today is their birthday, today we remember them:
Luis Ortiz (31), who appeared in three games in 2018-19
Chris Ellis (34), eight games in 2021-22
Luis García (51), six games in 2002
César Devarez (57), 16 games in 1995-96.
P.J. Forbes (59), nine games in 1998
John Stefero (67), 61 games in 1983 and 1986
Bob Harrison (b. 1930, d. 2023), two games in 1955-56
On this day in 1961, Jim Gentile hit his fifth grand slam of the year. That tied him with Ernie Banks for the most in a season. The current record is six, held by Travis Hafner and Don Mattingly.
In 1966, the Orioles clinched their first AL pennant with 6-1 victory over the Kansas City Athletics. Jim Palmer, just 20 years old, pitched a complete game.
In 1973, the Orioles defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 7-1 to clinch the division. Al Bumbry hit three triples in the win.
In 2012, the Orioles beat the Red Sox 9-6 in 13 innings, marking their 87th win of the year. They scored three runs in the top of the 13th with RBI hits from Jim Thome, Endy Chavez, and Manny Machado. Mark Reynolds and Adam Jones homered earlier. They remained one game out of the AL East after the Yankees pulled off an extra-innings win of their own.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 21: Pete Alonso #25 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 21, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images) | Getty Images
For the last few months, this space has featured the Rays heavily, given there was real intrigue about whether they or the Yankees would end up with the AL East title. Tampa slipped ahead of the Yankees in the division early in the season, but they never got too far afield, and as the season progressed and New York saw its cavalcade of wounded stars start to recover from injury, it seemed very plausible that the Yankees would eventually challenge the Rays at the very top of the American League.
Unfortunately, that never quite materialized. The Yankees are six back with seven to play, needing a miracle to catch the Rays in the division, meaning that the primary focus of our Rivalry Roundup may about to be extinguished. Now, we’ll have to focus more on the periphery, as there still is much to be decided out in the AL Central, the AL West, and in the race for the third Wild Card. That latter race was the only one impacted yesterday, with just three total MLB games on the slate, one of them featuring the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles, who maintain slim but non-zero chances of snagging a playoff spot.
Baltimore Orioles (76-81) 4, Toronto Blue Jays (77-80) 3
This game was delayed by rain, but the Blue Jays wasted no time getting to Baltimore starter Shane Baz once the contest got underway. Toronto opened the game with back-to-back walks from Brett Bateman and Alejandro Kirk, before singles by Nathan Lukes and George Springer scored both runners. A run-scoring sac fly by Kaz Okamoto put the Orioles in a 3-0 hole by the time Baz recorded his first out.
That gave Trey Yesavage a comfortable lead to work with, the young right-hander making his first start since undergoing meniscus surgery in early August. The O’s got on the board against Yesavage in the first thanks to a remarkable piece of hitting from Pete Alonso, who climbed the ladder to drive a high Yesavage fastball over the wall in right field:
That’d be the only blemish for Yesavage in a brief outing, with the Jays pulling Yesavage after just two frames as he ramps up at the end of the season. Baz settled in after his first-inning bump as well, allowing just one hit over the next five innings. That gave Baltimore some time to pull closer, and they did in the sixth, Gunnar Henderson hitting his 24th homer of the season off rookie reliever Chad Dallas:
Toronto essentially deployed a bullpen game with Yesavage serving as an opener, and for a while, it seemed the strategy might work. Brendan Cellucci, José Rodríguez, and Mason Fluharty each turned in scoreless outings of relief, but with two outs in the bottom of the eighth, the Jays turned to the typically dependable Tyler Rogers to face Alonso with one on. The Polar Bear got off a mighty swing on a Rogers sinker, hitting a stinger that cleared the left field wall in the blink of an eye:
Alonso’s two-homer game gave him 40 on the season, and was enough to deliver Baltimore a 4-3 win, with (Yankee legend) Rico Garcia closing out the ninth to earn the save. It’s a crushing loss for Toronto, who looked like they might run away with it early, but now drift to 3.5 games back of the White Sox for the last AL Wild Card with just five games to play. The O’s remain technically alive, 4.5 games back of Chicago.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 08: Manager Pat Murphy #00 of the Milwaukee Brewers looks on against the Chicago Cubs in the seventh inning at American Family Field on September 08, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We are close enough to the MLB playoffs that we can assume the postseason field in the National League is set—by the time you read this, it’s possible that the Diamondbacks could be eliminated from postseason contention and the six teams who will participate in the NL playoffs are finalized, with only the order of the three Wild Card teams remaining to be sorted out. So, a week out from the start of the postseason, let’s take a look at the five teams the Brewers could end up facing when they suit up for the National League Division Series on October 3rd.
I don’t do this necessarily to create a ranking of who I’d most like to face, but to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each team in order to judge what sort of threat they present. Of course anything can happen in the postseason, so this is likely all moot anyway, but it’s an interesting exercise.
I will go in alphabetical order, and I’ll include run differential plus ranks from FanGraphs for overall offense, overall defense, wRC+, and expected ERA.
The Braves won the NL East without too much trouble this year, as they’ve got a six-game advantage over the Phillies as of Monday afternoon and have been in first for essentially the entire season; the last time they weren’t in first in the NL East was on April 7th. The East was expected to be a competitive division, but the Mets’ tailspin and the Phillies’ awful start made it easy.
The Braves might have reason to be nervous, though. They jumped out to a nine-game lead in the division by mid-May and were rocking a winning percentage near .700, which held out until the second week of June. But since they were 42-20 on June 4th, they’ve gone 50-44 and they let the Phillies get to within three games at the beginning of September. Atlanta won two of three from the Phillies last week and then swept the Astros over the weekend, which clinched the division, but this isn’t a team that’s playing its best baseball at the moment.
While Atlanta hasn’t quite lived up offensively to the juggernaut it looked like they’d be for the foreseeable future after a team of young stars led them to the World Series in 2021, they’re still heavy on offensive talent. Matt Olson is the most reliable player in baseball, and no, he’s not at the level that nearly won him the MVP in 2023, but this season he’s got 40 homers and 33 doubles—not too shabby. Acuña, likewise, isn’t the same player he was before knee injuries sapped some of the explosiveness that won him the 2023 MVP, but he’s still a dangerous player who managed 20 homers in just 103 games so far this season (though his baserunning has gone from “weapon” to “liability”—he’s stealing bases this season at just a 71 percent clip).
The other big offensive piece is 2025 Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin, who for much of this season looked like Atlanta’s best offensive player. A midsummer swoon hurt his overall numbers a bit, but he’s hitting .313/.370/.478 over the last two months, essentially, not too shabby for a catcher. There are a lot of other familiar names in the lineup: Michael Harris II can certainly win you a game, Ozzie Albies has 22 homers, Austin Riley has 17 (even if his game has mostly fallen apart otherwise).
On the other side, the big story is Chris Sale, who should finish third in NL Cy Young voting after winning the award two seasons ago. Even at age 37, Sale is killing it—over the past three seasons, he is 39-17 with a 2.37 ERA and 2.31 FIP in 460 1/3 innings while striking out 11.3 batters per nine and walking only two. He’s a Hall of Famer, and he’s pitching as well as he has ever pitched. There are only a couple of pitchers in the league who can match up with Misiorowski, and Sale is one of them.
Injuries have been a big problem for the Braves’ pitching staff over the past couple of seasons, so there are bigger questions after Sale. Grant Holmes and Martín Pérez have ably filled their roles; neither is likely to throw a postseason shutout or anything, but they’ve both covered over 140 innings with ERAs below 3.50. (Both have FIP numbers significantly higher, though, so who knows.) Deadline pickup Tyler Mahle has also been huge: after posting a 5.13 ERA in 18 starts with the Giants before the trade, he has a 1.28 ERA (!) in eight starts since joining Atlanta. I’ve been waiting for Mahle to get blown up for weeks and it hasn’t happened, so who knows, we may keep waiting.
The bullpen is a strength, though their closer, Raisel Iglesias, has been mediocre over the past couple of months after an incredible start. Overall he has good numbers, but I suspect Braves fans will be nervous if he needs to protect a one-run lead late in a playoff game. Atlanta has also gotten big relief seasons from Didier Fuentes and Dylan Lee, and there is one big question mark here: Robert Suárez, the former San Diego closer who started the season with a 0.56 ERA in 32 innings, hasn’t pitched since mid-June because of elbow inflammation. He was sent on a rehab assignment this week, though, and pitched for Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday. If he’s able to pitch at the level he was early in the season, it’s a game-changing addition for Atlanta.
Strengths: Bullpen, a deep lineup, a real ace. Weaknesses: Inconsistent offense, can the rotation keep producing after Sale?
Chicago Cubs
87-69, currently holding first Wild Card position Offense: 1st; Defense: 1st; wRC+: 115 (1st); xERA: 4.60 (24th)
The Cubs are a strange team. Their offense and defense are both ranked first. Their pitching is not. It’s been a struggle on the mound this year; injuries decimated the staff (most prominently with Cade Horton, who threw only 7 1/3 innings before his elbow blew up, and Ben Brown, who looked like the team’s best pitcher when healthy but who hasn’t pitched since late June) and it’s just been a real struggle.
There is real danger here. Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to win the MVP award, and as much as I don’t want to admit it, he will 100% deserve it; he has a strong case as the league’s best defensive player and he’s leading the league in OPS, runs scored, and homers. He’s almost surely going to have a 40/40 season and he has 10.4 WAR via FanGraphs. It is a historically good season.
That’s far from all in the lineup. Seiya Suzuki is just a good hitter and has been dependable. Ian Happ has struggled a bit but he’s got 24 homers. Michael Busch is dangerous, even if the surface numbers have taken a step back. Michael Conforto has recovered from his nightmare 2025 season and has been a very good role player. Tyrone Taylor has been great since coming over at the trade deadline. Everyone walks—only the Brewers have a higher walk percentage this season than the Cubs.
Then there’s the defense. Whether you are a fan of Defensive Runs Saved or Outs Above Average, the Cubs are far and away the best team in the league.
Now, there are some issues here: Alex Bregman, who has been their second-best offensive player in the second of the season and who is a good defender, suffered facial fractures after being hit by a foul ball on Sunday. For now, we don’t know what his situation is; according to Jeff Passan, he is electing not to undergo surgery at this time, which could mean a return in the postseason is possible. We also don’t know what to expect from Dansby Swanson, who was playing well when he strained an oblique a little over a month ago. He had a good weekend, but we’ll see.
But the biggest problem is pitching. Shota Imanaga, Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, and David Peterson are all players who have thrown at least 75 innings for the Cubs this year, and not one of them has a FIP better than 4.20. Kevin Gausman hasn’t been good since coming over at the deadline. Clay Holmes started well after his trade to the Cubs but his September has been disastrous. The bullpen isn’t in any better shape; they can’t figure out who their closer is (no Cub has more than nine saves this season) and even the players who have pitched better have serious questions. No joke, their best reliever of late has been Aaron Civale (who has allowed only five earned runs in 32 1/3 innings with Chicago this season).
This team could win the World Series. The offense and defense are that good. But if they do, I’m fairly certain they’d be doing it with the worst pitching staff to ever win a title.
Strengths: the MVP, the lineup, the defense. Weakness: Almost everyone who steps on the mound.
Los Angeles Dodgers
96-60, clinched NL West, likely to get first-round bye Offense: 2nd; Defense: 13th; wRC+: 111 (2nd); xERA: 3.62 (2nd)
The Dodgers are now in the “favorites until they’re not” phase of their dynasty, and a glance at any betting market (for whatever that’s worth) will show you that even if the Dodgers don’t have the best record in the league, they’re the clear favorite to win the World Series, at least in a casual sense. I’ve observed this amongst my own friends, who follow the Brewers but aren’t die-hard baseball fans—they all assume the Brewers will just lose to the Dodgers again in the postseason.
Maybe, maybe not. While the Dodgers are undoubtedly still very good, cracks may be beginning to show. Shohei Ohtani, who is banged up and currently on the injured list, has his lowest OPS+ (a still stellar 146, but still) since 2022. While he was outstanding when on the mound this year, he couldn’t stay healthy and it seems certain that he will not pitch in the postseason. He recently turned 32, so this may be the new normal for him. Will Smith has only played 69 games. Freddie Freeman, at 36, is having his worst season since he was 22 in 2012. A good September (he has a 1.215 OPS in 17 games this month) has buoyed Mookie Betts’ numbers, but he was about a league-average hitter for the season’s first five months. He’s also about to turn 34. Teoscar Hernández, at age 33, hasn’t been the same hitter the last two seasons that he was the six or seven before that. Kyle Tucker has been, mostly, a very expensive bust.
And yet, they still have the second-best offense in the league, which is frustrating. Unexpected sources have stepped up: Andy Pages became one of the league’s most well-rounded players and has over 20 homers. Max Muncy, another mid-30s guy, doesn’t seem to have lost anything and is having his best season by WAR since 2021. He’s got 29 homers and 26 doubles. Josue De Paula, the uberprospect who was called up all the way from Double-A to take some at-bats after Ohtani got hurt, is hitting .286/.474/.500 in 38 plate appearances. Like I said, frustrating.
On the whole, though, the offense looks beatable. They’re a little beat up and they’re definitely aging; this season more than any other since he got there, it feels like if you don’t let Ohtani beat you, then you can (carefully) deal with the rest of the lineup.
The pitching staff is impressive, though. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the reigning World Series MVP, continues to be one of the most reliable players in the league and should finish in the top five or so in NL Cy Young voting. Blake Snell missed much of the season but has been incredible in eight starts since returning; he has a 1.86 ERA and 1.73 FIP in 38 2/3 innings and looks like one of the two or three best pitchers in baseball right now. Tyler Glasnow looks like the best number four starter in the league. Oh, and they have Tarik Skubal.
The bullpen isn’t exactly a strength but it’s been a lot better than last year, even though the high-priced Edwin Díaz move hasn’t worked out thus far. After a horrible year last year, Tanner Scott has ably stepped into the closer role. Alex Vesia continues to get outs. Jack Dreyer has been solid. Edgardo Henriquez has been excellent, though he’s on the injured list with back trouble at the moment. Plus, guys like Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski, and Rokie Sasaki—who’ve been up and down as starters this year—could fill Chad Patrick-like roles for this bullpen in the postseason.
I understand why they’re the favorite, and it’s definitely possible that everything will come together at the right time again the way it did last year. But this team isn’t invulnerable.
86-70, currently holding third Wild Card position Offense: 27th; Defense: 18th; wRC+: 92 (27th); xERA: 3.64 (3rd)
This Phillies team is a weird inversion of the Phillies teams I feel like I’m used to from the last few years. Aside from a couple of notable exceptions, they can’t really hit. But after years of absolute chaos in their bullpen, they’re rocking one of the league’s best closers, and in the rotation there is some real juice.
Let’s start there, with Cristopher Sánchez. While I still think it’s likely that Misiorowski wins the Cy Young, Sánchez is almost certainly going to prevent him from winning unanimously. He’s made 32 starts and thrown 200 innings, with a 2.93 ERA and 2.81 FIP. The advantage in innings means that he’s comfortably ahead of all other pitchers in Baseball Reference’s version of WAR.
The rest of the rotation is in good shape too, though a shoulder injury for Jesús Luzardo creates some uncertainty. Luzardo has had an excellent season: in 29 starts, he’s actually ahead of Sánchez in both ERA and FIP and is striking out 11.1 batters per nine. He’s one of the league’s best pitchers, but while the team is hopeful he can return from this late-season injury, it’s unclear if he’d be able to start or would need to move to the bullpen.
Zack Wheeler is here, and he’s been typically excellent. It’s been mostly a struggle for Aaron Nola over the past two seasons, but he’s got a 2.92 ERA since the beginning of July (though there’s some noise in those numbers). The bullpen is anchored by Jhoan Duran, who has a 1.76 ERA and 1.45 FIP in 56 1/3 innings, but there are some questions beyond him. Luzardo could play a major role there, if he’s not able to start.
Offensively, though, it’s rough. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are getting older—both are in their age-33 seasons—and have done what they can. Harper leads the NL in walks and is hitting .271/.382/.491 with 28 homers; a good season. Schwarber leads the NL with 45 homers and is having what I’d describe as a fairly typical Schwarber season. But after that, there is nothing. Amongst J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, Justin Crawford, Edmundo Sosa, and Luis Arraez, there are precisely zero players with an OPS+ above 90. That’s really, really rough.
The offensive problems are probably too much for the pitching staff to overcome, especially with Luzardo’s health as a question mark. Harper has a history of elevating his play in the postseason and Schwarber is not a mystery, but there’s just too little.
Strengths: Starting rotation, the closer, Harper and Schwarber. Weaknesses: Bullpen depth, everyone else who hits
San Diego Padres
87-69, currently holding second Wild Card position Offense: 7th; Defense: 4th; wRC+: 102 (11th); xERA: 3.98 (9th)
The Padres are a surprisingly well-balanced team. They might have the best 1-2 punch in the bullpen in all of baseball with Mason Miller and Adrián Morejón, and there are several other solid contributors amongst the relief corps. After a weird, homerless start to the season, Fernando Tatis Jr. has looked much more like the perennial MVP candidate we have come to expect in the second half. Ty France is having maybe the most random great season in the entire league—be honest, did you know that Ty France is hitting .301/.366/.519 with 21 homers and 4.8 WAR this year? They’ve gotten good contributions from a variety of role players, like Luis Campusano and Samad Taylor and even Luis Rengifo, though his season is over after a torn ACL.
It comes down to the starting pitching, though. Michael King has turned into a really solid player, and he holds the top spot in San Diego’s rotation. Walker Buehler has stayed healthy this year (31 starts, his most since 2021), but he’s far from the player he was before his injuries and has been solidly below average. Randy Vásquez has been, in a word, fine. Casey Mize and Robbie Ray were acquired at the deadline to play major roles in the rotation… and they’ve combined for an ERA of 5.93 in 17 starts.
If the Padres can get just enough starting pitching to shorten games to the point that their bullpen can handle things, things could go well for them this postseason. But this is a team that looks like it has one starting pitcher worthy of any level of trust in the postseason right now, and that’s a difficult place to be. While the offense has performed well this year, it doesn’t look to me like a group that came overcome major pitching woes, like the Cubs’ group might be able to do. The Padres, to have success, will need to get something unexpected from a starting pitcher or two, and I’m not sure who that’ll be.
Strengths: The bullpen, Tatis, King. Weaknesses: The rotation beyond King, is this a lineup prone to slumps?
