Category: MLB

Before the All-Star break, I talked a couple of times about the number of walk-off wins, especially as compared to the number of Cubs who have saved a game in 2026. As I recall, both of those numbers sat at 10. Both of those numbers were unimaginably high in fewer than even 100 games. This was a kind of game that I don’t particularly remember the Cubs having this year. They came back from down 4-0 early and 5-3 late to ultimately get the game to extra innings. But this team has been magic completing their comebacks. Not this time, though. Despite having the winning run on second with no outs in the ninth, they failed to score. Hat tip to Kenley Jansen who is an All-Time great and very possibly a Hall of Famer. He wasn’t the dominant presence he once was, but he did find just enough to wiggle out of that jam.

These types of losses happen. Your comeback bid comes up short or the other team comes back after your comeback. For the first time in a while, one of these games that felt like it got away after you had appeared likely to win doesn’t feel soul crushing. You certainly hate to lose any game, much less one that you did a bunch of things right to be in a position to win. Unfortunately, there were a series of unusual occurrences in the 10th inning that added up to a loss. Because the team has been so good over the last month, it only feels frustrating and not potentially devastating.

Perspective check: Four teams have more wins than the Cubs, two have as many wins as the Cubs. The Cubs presently occupy the first Wild Card spot in the NL thanks to winning the season series against the Phillies. The Cubs are on pace for 90.7 wins. The lost caused the Cubs to lose just about a full game off of their projected win total. Over the next three weeks, we should really learn where this team will end up. A tough schedule awaits, the dog days of summer and in the middle of that is the trade deadline. We can assume that reinforcements of some level will join this team. Will it be enough to hold on to this top Wild Card slot?

As part of the things we don’t see a lot, this team scored six runs and lost. That is an exceedingly rare occurrence, even for this pitching-challenged team. I know moral victories don’t really move the needle, but this one felt good as losses go. It felt like this team was basically down 4-0 by the time the National Anthem was over. Jameson Taillon bounced back, did provide a little bit of work load and the bats clawed their way back into the game. Taillon didn’t do anywhere near well enough to be one of my positives, but getting a pretty decent string of outs had some value. I mean I do feel like I’m telling you that the ship had really nice lifeboats. But it isn’t nothing really. Maybe he can build forward on the outs that he did get.

Maybe the most frustrating part of this loss was that Ian Happ hit a massive home run to tie the game late. That moved him into sole possession of 11th in Cub history in homers. He’s been struggling a bit and the homer had to feel terrific. Of course, the injury to Trent Thornton who had at least reached the interesting list if not the circle of trust for the team. That ball was smoked off of his ankle and heel area. Obviously not a great sign when he couldn’t put weight on it.

Three Positives and Pete:

• Ryan Rolison, six batters faced, five outs. It always feels like it always takes at least one pitcher holding the door open for the comeback. If nothing else, he controlled the bullpen usage in the game. As did Taillon bouncing back a little after the rough start.
• Dansby Swanson with a single, double and walk in the game.
• Seiya Suzuki stayed hot with the early two-run homer to ignite the comeback and another walk.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong into a little funk now. A couple of nice defensive plays and how often do you see a guy 0-4 get intentionally walked by a generational closer?

Game 100, July 20: Tigers 8, Cubs 6 (56-44)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ian Happ (.312). 1-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, R
• Hero: Dansby Swanson (.166). 2-4, 2B, BB
• Sidekick: Ryan Rolison (.147). 1.2 IP, 6 BF

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Javier Assad ( -.272). IP, 7 BF, 2 H, BB, 1 R (0 ER), 2 K
• Goat:  Jameson Taillon (-.252). 4.1 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 R, 6 K
• Kid: Trent Thornton (-.133). BF, H

WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s two-run. game-tying homer in the eighth inning. (.392)

Tigers Play of the Game: Kenley Jansen’s strikeout of Seiya Suzuki for the second out of the ninth inning. (.209)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 99 Winner: Shota Imanaga received 62 of 77 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +18
• Michael Busch +16
• Carson Kelly +15.5
• Ben Brown/Alex Bregman +13.5
• Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -10
• Nico Hoerner -11
• Caleb Thielbar/Dansby Swanson -14

Up Next: Game two of the three-game series. Hopefully, the Cubs can match the Twins series by dropping the first and winning the next two. David Peterson (4-7, 6.45) is the scheduled starter. The Cubs will be looking for some length out of him after using a lot of pen in game one.

Lefty Framber Valdez (5-6, 4.10) goes for the Tigers. He’s 3-2 with a 3.60 over his last seven starts (40 IP), so he has some good things going for him. The Cubs are 14-12 against a lefty starter. The Cubs have the highest on base percentage and second highest team OPS against lefties. This has been a thing for a couple of years. The team hits lefties well, but is rather middle of the road overall when a lefty starts. I think in general, the team hits lefty relievers better.

Let’s hope they can get to Valdez. The Tigers used a lot of pen too in game one.

Congratulations to David Davalillo, who has been named the #11 prospect in the 2026 LSB Midseason Community Prospect Rankings, receiving a little under a quarter of the vote.

Our list so far:

1 — Sebastian Walcott

2 — Caden Scarborough

3 — Malcolm Moore

4 — A.J. Russell

5 — Yolfran Castillo

6 — Rafe Perich

7 — Dylan Dreiling

8 — Josh Owens

9 — Jose Corniell

10 — Dalton Pence

11 — David Davalillo

Moving on…

Because there has been a history of vote-spamming shenanigans in the rankings, I used Google Forms for the last several of community rankings, and it worked out well, so we will use it again. You will need to include your LSB user name when you vote. If you don’t have an LSB user name, you need to use some sort of identifier. While this won’t eliminate the possibility of vote spamming, it will make it harder.

So who is the #12 prospect in the Rangers system right now?

Cast your vote below…

MJ Melendez

Week: 3 G, 13 AB, .538/.571/1.231, 7 H, 0 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 0/0 SB (Triple-A)

2026 Season: 27 G, 97 AB, .278/.358/.660, 5 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 12 BB, 26 K, 1/3 SB, .279 (Triple-A) / 56 G, 120 AB, .192/.315/.350, 23 H, 5 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 17 BB, 50 K, 0/1 SB, .284 BABIP (MLB)

It was an abbreviated week this past week because of the all-star break, but MJ Melendez had a week that would have been a candidate for Player of the Week over the course of a normal six-game week, logging two consecutive three-hit games and launching three home runs.

In 12 games with Syracuse in July, MJ Melendez is hitting .341/.431/.864 with 7 home runs. On one hand, that shows how out of whack the International League hitting environment is, but that aside, it also highlights that Melendez is a solid player to have around. Sure, in 56 games/120 at-bats with the Mets, he hit .192/.315/.350, but in the coming weeks, as the Mets begin trading the handful of assets that they do have, a theoretical opening for playing time at the major league level could open for, among others, Melendez.

Should the former Royals top prospect find himself in Queens once again, however that gets finagled, do I think that he’d all of a sudden become a world beater? While all things are possible, probably not. I don’t even know if he’d be viable at all, as he wasn’t in the 120 at-bats he had earlier in the season. With the rest of the 2026 season highly unlikely to be relevant and compelling baseball- especially if the Mets complete trades such that a player like Melendez begins seeing more regular playing time- it would be as fine a time as ever to take stock in the assets the team already has and the assets it could use in 2027 (and beyond).

Noah Hall

Week: 1 G (1 GS), 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (High-A)

2026 Season: 18 G (15 GS), 82.1 IP, 74 H, 48 R, 44 ER (4.81 ERA), 59 BB, 86 K, .307 BABIP (High-A)

Noah Hall was a college senior drafted in the 7th round of the 2023 MLB Draft out of the University of South Carolina, where he pitched for his junior and senior seasons to fair results after transferring from Appalachian State University; in both years combined, he had a cumulative 3.99 ERA in 117.2 innings, allowing 113 hits, walking 40, and striking out 121. He appeared in a handful of games for the St. Lucie Mets and the Brooklyn Cyclones at the end of that summer, and then appeared in a few more in the Arizona Fall League, but his career began in earnest in 2025. He spent the entire year in Coney Island and posted a 2.72 ERA in 112.2 innings over 21 starts and 4 additional appearances. He allowed 80 hits, walked 63, and struck out 115. A bit surprisingly, when the 2026 season began, the 25-year-old was not given a promotion and began the season with the Cyclones for a second straight season. He has been pitching there ever since, and unfortunately has been much less effective, posting a 4.81 ERA in 82.1 innings with 74 hits allowed, 44 walks, and 86 punch outs.

The 6’0”, 195-pound right-hander has a unique pre-delivery delivery quirk that he performs only when bases are empty, lifting his lead foot up and tapping the ground with his toe before transitioning into his windup’s leg lift. He drops and drives off the mound with good extension, throwing from a low-three-quarters, virtually sidearm, arm slot with a long arm action through the back. It is partially because of this slingy delivery that Hall does not have the best control and command, with a cumulative 14.4% BB%, but the tough angle also helps with his groundout rate and strikeout rate.

Hall is primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, occasionally mixing in a slider. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid-90s, sitting in the lower spectrum of that range and topping out at the higher end. The pitch has a bit of arm-side life to it, partially thanks to Hall’s arm slot and partially because of the pitch’s active spin and seam orientation.

He complements it with a changeup, one of the best in the Mets minor league system currently. The pitch sits in the low-to-mid-80s, giving it roughly 10 MPH of velocity separation between it and his fastball. Like his fastball, thanks to a combination of his arm slot and the pitch’s active spin and seam orientation, the pitch has heavy arm-side fade and sharp vertical tumble.

Rounding out his arsenal is his slider. The pitch is far less refined than his changeup, but is a fringe-average offering in its own right. It is at its best when he throws it a bit harder, with more spin, tightening it up more and giving it sharper horizontal slice and harder vertical break. When the pitch is thrown slower, it gets slurvier and looser and features loopier horizontal and vertical break.

The right-hander is experiencing a sharp increase in flyballs this season. In 2025, he had a 49.3% groundball rate, 23.6 line drive rate, and 27.1% flyball rate, but this season, he currently has a 41.7% groundball rate, 20.4% line drive rate, and a 38% flyball rate. His groundball rate has decreased by roughly 10% while his flyball rate has increased roughly 10%. His HR/FB% has only slightly increased at this point, likely helped by home-run dampening stadiums in the South Atlantic League, but as evidenced by a BABIP nearly .40 points higher as compared to 2025 and an opponent batting average nearly .40 points higher, more balls are landing for hits.

Players of the Week 2026

Week One/Two (March 27-April 5): Hayden Senger/Cam Tilly

Week Three (April 7-April 12): A.J. Ewing/Christian Scott

Week Four (April 14-April 18): Randy Guzman/Jose Chirinos

Week Five (April 21-April 26): A.J. Ewing/Channing Austin

Week Six (April 30-May 3): A.J. Ewing/Jonah Tong

Week Seven (May 5-May 10): Ryan Clifford/Jonathan Santucci

Week Eight: (May 12-May 17): Jacob Reimer/Zach Thornton

Week Nine: (May 19-May 24): Ryan Clifford/Channing Austin

Week Ten: (May 26-May 31): Ryan Clifford/Jose Chirinos

Week Eleven: (June 2-June 7): Vincent Perozo/Frank Camarillo

Week Twelve: (June 9-June 14): JT Benson/Nick Carreno

Week Thirteen (June 16-June 21): Nick Morabito/Jonathan Santucci

Week Fourteen (June 23-June 28): JT Benson/Daviel Hurtado

Week Fifteen: (June 30-July 5): MJ Melendez/Daviel Hurtado

Week Sixteen: (July 7-July 12): Daiverson Gutierrez/Jonathan Santucci

After struggling through April, Gabe Speier took a trip to the Injured List to let a little inflammation in his shoulder subside. What’s happened since then is a puzzle: His stuff looks better than ever, but while his ERA is a gorgeous 2.05, his xERA, FIP, and SIERA are at all-time highs for his Mariners career.

Despite having a down year overall, the April part is easy to dismiss as having been affected by his injury. Those who are obsessed with a single idea will try to blame this on Speier’s time in the World Baseball Classic this spring, but he dismisses that, saying, “I felt really good in spring. I felt really good in the WBC.”

Personally, I was more concerned by the “impulsive” haircut he got just before the season started. His traditional look calls to mind a Waffle House line cook, holding the whole restaurant together, punching every ticket, desperate to get his ten so he can smoke a cigarette. It’s the perfect lefty reliever energy.

The haircut cleaned him up, like someone who’d recently joined the military. It clashed, and I think the bad April results were downstream of that.

Since coming back from the IL, as his hair has grown out, his power’s coming back with it. It’s just not leading to as good of results as you’d expect.

Over parts of seven seasons, Speier had never had a month in which his average fastball topped 96 mph. Until now. In his first game back from the IL, on May 26, he was at 94.4, which is in line with his career norms. But then the next game was up to 95.3. Then 95.8. It kept climbing so that by June 21, he was at 97.8 mph, including throwing the two fastest pitches of his career. Nine of his ten fastest pitches ever have come in the past four weeks. His sinker hasn’t gotten quite that obscene, but it too is coming in hotter than it ever has.

While velo’s always a paramount goal, Speier says this wasn’t something he was working on specifically and seemed as surprised as anyone: “Mostly just feeling good, I’d say.”

Velo matters for everyone, but we’ve seen the difference it can make for Speier in particular. The difference between his breakout 2023 and his stepback 2024 was the difference between 95 and 93. The primary cause there was health. But the velo was the first step down the causal chain, and then the results. Seeing him at 96 tantalizes, even if the results haven’t shown up yet.

But it’s odd that he hasn’t been able to harness his new velocity into better results. Despite the extra tick, he hasn’t been as dominant as you’d expect, striking out just 16.7% of batters while walking 9.3% since returning from the IL.

One possibility is that the Mariners aren’t taking the best advantage of that velocity, dialing his four-seamer usage back from last year when it worked so well despite being slower.

Making a change isn’t that odd for Speier. For a three-pitch pitcher, he’s evolved more than you’d think. In his first conversation with the Mariners after getting picked up in November 2022, Pete Woodworth immediately suggested throwing his sinker to lefties more. It was a major change that fueled his breakout season. In 2025, his plan shifted, increasing his four-seamer usage to (successfully) try to detonate the platoon disadvantage against righties.

He’s always used both fastballs, which he knows is important since each is better for playing off the other. But at this point, he’s less involved in the strategy and happy just to trust his catchers. “I honestly rely on my catcher and what they’re calling,” he said. “I don’t really second-guess what they’re putting down.” Watch him on the mound, and try to count how many times he shakes off catcher. It’s one of the benefits of the high-leverage role he’s worked himself into: “They’ve run through the lineup a few times by the time I get out there.”

What they’re calling these days is close to an equal distribution. Each of his four-seamer, sinker, and slider are coming in between 29% and 39% of the time. Perhaps pushing the four-seamer button a little more will help.

But maybe the pitch mix they’re calling for suggests that the team isn’t worried. There’s reason to think they’re right. The two keys I’m always watching for Gabe, his chase rate and first-pitch-strike rate are worse this year too, but not by as much as his strikeouts and walks. They’re about halfway between his bad 2024 and his excellent 2025. So maybe the team is betting that his success is lurking underneath the surface and keeping his pitches in equal balance will help tip hitters off balance.

I’m betting he’s going to get better regardless of the pitch mix. The velo is the first-order change, so the results should follow, but I’d definitely put more money on that bet if they started calling for the four-seamer more too. It’s not a sure thing, but I’m buoyed by the fact that his hair continues to grow as well.

His go-to coffee order is a vanilla latte. He prefers to stick close to the team hotel during road trips rather than exploring the city. His walk-in outfit, as captured by team photographers, is usually joggers and a plain t-shirt. You could, fairly, call it boring; Cole Young prefers to call it keeping things simple.

It’s that simple mindset that’s driving a successful season for the second-year Mariner. After carrying his spring training success into a strong first month of the season (126 wRC+), May was a tough month for Young, who saw his wRC+ crater to 66. Looking at the numbers, nothing really jumps out to explain why May was such a slog for the sophomore. He was walking a little less (8.8% down to 7.2%), but still striking out at about the same rate (20-21%). His hit distribution remained almost equal: half to the pull side, a third up the middle, and the rest oppo, so he wasn’t changing his approach drastically or selling out for power, despite a slight (2%) uptick in pull hits. The opposite, actually: the biggest difference was a spike in him putting the ball on the ground more (30% to 45%) and a subsequent loss in hard contact and line drives. In May, an awful lot of Cole Young at-bats ended like this:

But in June, Young’s line drive contact rebounded to where it was in March/April, and his hard contact along with it – back to the exact same mark, 32.6%. He stopped pulling the ball as much, but more importantly, stopped pulling the ball on the ground so much, leading to more hits and fewer 4-3 ground ball putouts. Even more interestingly, he basically stopped striking out. His K% fell to 9%, and in turn, his average jumped by a hundred points from where it was in May – from sub-Mendoza-line to All-Star.

What changed? According to Young, not much other than simplifying his approach even more. During the nadir of his struggles in May and well into June, Young was frequently spotted working with hitting coordinator Edgar Martinez. Edgar helped Young work extensively on his setup, making sure his hands were ready to fire so he could be on time for the fastball and do the damage we’ve seen lately. Around late June, you can see a clear change where he streamlines his approach, synchronizing lifting the bat off his shoulder with lifting his front foot. From June 23 on – the start of the roadtrip to Pittsburgh/Cleveland, where Young was often a lone bright spot in a rough sea – he’s been running a 140 wRC+, slashing .257/.297/.557.

Maybe it’s fitting that Young has found such a mentor in Edgar, who built a Hall of Fame career out of not overcomplicating things: see the ball, hit the ball.

“It’s huge to have him,” said Young about working with Edgar. “He’s so knowledgeable, and I’m so grateful that he’s in the cages every single day. He’s been through everything that you can think of in the game of baseball, so it’s great to have him every single day and just pick his brain. When times are going tough, it’s always nice to have someone to talk to, to help you get through those, and he’s been such a great help. It’s awesome.”

“I feel like struggles in a season are inevitable. Like, it’s going to happen, and the biggest thing is just learning from the struggles, and not trying to let the struggles keep going on and on, really just learning from those and making adjustments on the fly.”

Appropriately enough for someone who values the gift of simplicity, that change might have made a significant difference. Here’s Young’s setup back in late April. Pre-pitch, he goes from bat on shoulder, to bat straight up, to bat back on shoulder before the pitcher has even released the ball, at which point he goes through the sequence again, this time cocking his bat back in sync with his leg kick. (You can also see this “busy bat” in the clip above.)

And here’s his homer from Sunday. The setup is much simpler: the bat is on his shoulder, goes up when the pitcher is about to release the ball, cocks back in sync with his leg kick, and then he swings through.

To isolate it down to a moment, you can clearly see the difference in Young’s setup at the point where the pitch arrives. Earlier in the season, his foot is already down from his leg kick, already transferring energy and firing his hips, which are more closed off at the point of impact. Recently, though, by syncing up his leg kick and where he starts his swing path, he’s slightly more open and in a better position to attack the pitch and do damage. Most importantly, he still has all that potential energy in his front leg to put down and drive through his swing. That slight change allows him to get a little more loft on his swing while still driving the ball with authority.

He still got a really good swing on the pitch on the left – a four-seamer at 98 mph that he hit hard, 102 mph – that went for a deep double that would have been out at three parks. The homer he hit on Sunday, by contrast, came on a first-pitch changeup, but Young absolutely crushed the pitch, at 104 mph. It was his second hit of the day and he crushed the other one as well, a single at 101.3 mph, and his second homer of the series.

Quietly, Cole Young has been one of the Mariners’ steadiest producers, maybe a 1A to Randy Arozarena’s turn as first-half MVP given his defensive contributions and his ability to contribute every day. Young is one of six players to have played all 101 games so far this season, and the names he shares the list with are impressive: Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, Bryan Reynolds, James Wood, and Xavier Edwards, all integral face-of-the-franchise types for their respective teams.

Manager Dan Wilson attributes Young’s success – in the box, in the field, and in his ability to post every day – to the work Cole put in during the off-season, work that started showing up immediately during spring training and hasn’t dipped since. Even when Young was struggling offensively in May, his glove carried him, the anchor of an infield that’s gone through injuries and inconsistencies.

“I know we’re 100 games into this, but if you go back to the off-season and talk about the preparation that he put into this season, he’s ready for this. He’s ready to be that guy,” said Wilson. “He’s ready to be there as much as we put him in there. And there may come a day where he needs a break. There may come a day where he needs a mental day. There may come a day where he needs a physical day. But right now what he has done, his consistency, is all due to the fact that he put the work in. He took advantage of the off-season, and he’s turned himself into a great player, and a very consistent player. That’s all due to his hard work.”

In 1995, the French chef Jacques Pépin taught America how to make an omelette on San Francisco public television in a now-foodie-famous segment and casually let slip that the humble omelette was the way he assessed the technical skill of a chef. Eggs, butter, some fresh herbs: basic ingredients alchemized into something greater than the sum of its parts in the hands of an expert. The perfect omelette, the most perfect foods, Pépin says, is not about fancy ingredients, but about perfect technique: consistent, controlled, classic. Simple. Not boring.

ESPN’s 30 for 30 will launch the first two of six podcast episodes July 28 examining the gambling scandal that resulted in Shohei Ohtani‘s interpreter Ippei Mizuhara going to prison for stealing nearly $17 million from the baseball superstar and gambling it away.

The podcast, titled “The Betrayal of Shohei Ohtani” is told by Tisha Thompson, the ESPN investigative reporter who led the outlet’s groundbreaking coverage in March 2024.

Ohtani, who signed a record 10-year, $700-million contract with the Dodgers in December 2023 after playing six years with the Angels, apparently trusted Mizuhara implicitly. He said he was unaware that the interpreter regularly ransacked his bank account for more than two years.

The podcast will recount Mizuhara’s life before he began working for Ohtani in 2013 when both were with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan. When Ohtani moved to the United States to play for the Angels in 2018, Mizuhara came with him.

Thompson interviews childhood friends and colleagues of Mizuhara, but the interview that will generate the greatest interest is a 90-minute phone call she had with him 16 hours before she published the story. Thompson got permission from Mizuhara to tape the call and it remains the only interview he has given.

Mizuhara told her that Ohtani had helped him pay off his gambling debts, a story he recanted a day later. The Dodgers fired him the same day they opened the 2024 season with a game against the San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea.

IRS special agent Chris Seymour gave Thompson the first interview of his career, and what he and prosecutors say about Mizuhara’s motive goes beyond the narrative that he had a gambling addiction, according to ESPN.

Another interview by Thompson is with bookmaker Mathew Bowyer, who explains on tape that his relationship with Mizuhara began during a hotel poker game with Angels players. Bowyer pleaded guilty last year to running an illegal gambling business, money laundering and filing a false tax return. He was sentenced to 12 months and one day in prison and ordered to pay $1.6 million in restitution to the IRS.

Episodes one and two — “The Letter O” and “The Interview” — will debut July 28, followed by episodes dropping every Tuesday and Thursday through Aug. 11.

Get the best, most interesting and strangest stories of the day from the L.A. sports scene and beyond from our newsletter The Sports Report.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

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The Milwaukee Brewers are -145 favorites to win their fifth consecutive game tonight at American Family Field.

Taking on an inexperienced arm with strong regression signals, my Mets vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks back Milwaukee to extend their streak to six on July 21.

Who will win Mets vs Brewers today: Brewers (-145)

Zac Thornton is a talented young lefty, but we’ve seen real red flags during his cup of coffee in the big leagues.

Topping the list is an almost shocking 6.4% soft contact rate, which is lowest among all of today’s starting pitchers.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a hit-for-contact lineup, and Thornton’s inability to limit hard-hit balls is likely to be exploited.

Brandon Sproat has issues of his own, but will benefit from a Top 5 bullpen in ERA, FIP, and xFIP backing him up.

Bet Milwaukee to -155.

COVERS INTEL:Thornton's xERA (3.97) is well above his actual ERA (2.60), a sign he's not pitching as well as the results suggest. 

Mets vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (-120)

I don’t see the path to fireworks in this game.

Milwaukee has not hit for power against lefties at all, sitting 26th in SLG and 28th in ISO this season. Thornton’s poor contact profile should prop them up, but this isn’t about to turn into a home run derby.

Sproat has held his own against poor offenses, posting a 3.43 ERA over eight starts when facing Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. righties.

If he can survive five innings and get to the bullpen, it’ll be tough for the New York Mets to score.

Play the Under to -130.

Mets vs Brewers weather

Mets vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Mets +125 | Brewers -145
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (+100) | Under 9.0 (-120)

Mets vs Brewers trend

Milwaukee has hit the moneyline in 27 of their last 40 home games (+8.25 units, 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Brewers.

How to watch Mets vs Brewers and game info

Mets vs Brewers latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Boston Red Sox refuse to die, which is bad news for me!

Boston did that thing again in its series opening matchup with the Baltimore Orioles on Monday, securing yet another come-from-behind victory and pushing its winning streak to 14 games while further solidifying itself as one of the likely wild card teams in the American League in 2026 — which few of us saw coming even a few weeks ago.

I definitely didn’t anyway…

I’ve spent that last several weeks tempering the expectations of my co-hosts on NESN’s Boston’s Entered the Chat, using logic and reasoning to explain why this run wasn’t sustainable and that the season was over. But their eternal optimism was enough to rage bait me into making a regrettable statement during one of our segments on July 16.

YIKES!

It’s looking like that might come back to bite me.

I’ve always been a man of my word, which is why the preparations have begun for what looks like an inevitability after the organization that we all know and love clearly started practicing witchcraft. NESN is going to let people throw stuff at me once this team makes the playoffs, and has tasked me with asking my favorite group of readers (you guys) what we should do; pie face, water balloons, hammers, ice bucket challenge, something that isn’t all that bad but actually kind of sweet?

I’ll be monitoring the comment section, but if you guys have any revolutionary ideas you can also send them to me @KeaganStiefel on X.

I’ll be rooting for you guys/against myself.

Go Sox.

There’s an insanely short list of players who have hit 60 or more home runs in a single Major League Baseball season.

You may have heard of some of them – Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Maris, Aaron Judge. You may have also noticed that catcher – catcher! – Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners achieved that feat just last year.

Raleigh in 2026 has admittedly been a shell of his 2025 self. Like Eugenio Suarez of the Cincinnati Reds, Raleigh has been dealing with an oblique strain that cost him a month of the season already, and it’s the kind of injury that messes with strength and timing within a swing even on the days when there’s no lingering pain. Still, we’re talking about a guy who didn’t just hit 60 homers last season but also a guy who averaged 30 dingers a year over the three seasons before that while picking up MVP votes all along the way.

That’s not exactly the recipe for the kind of player you’d think to go out of your way to pitch to with a game on the line. It’s certainly not the type of player you’d think you’d go out of your way to pitch to with your season on the line.

On Monday night in Seattle, though, some inverted cosmos prompted Reds manager Terry Francona to go galaxy brain and do precisely that.

Andrew Abbott had pitched brilliantly while Seattle starter George Kirby had blanked the lifeless Reds offense, and only a pair of questionable defensive plays from Cincinnati’s middle infield had allowed a lone run on Seattle’s ledger in a 1-0 game. Pierce Johnson had labored while taking over in the Bottom of the 7th, and Francona summoned lefty Caleb Ferguson from the bullpen to try to navigate through the packed bases as the heart of the Mariners lineup was due up.

With the lefty on the mound, Tito prompted Ferguson to walk Dominic Canzone to load the bases and set up a potential double play that would end the inning. Canzone, of course, hits left handed. Walking Canzone to load the bases brought up the switch-hitting Raleigh, who turned to his right side to welcome the lefty Ferguson’s offerings.

The first pitch? It couldn’t have been more of a meatball.

Raleigh destroyed a hanging breaker right over the heart of the plate into the LF bleachers for a grand slam that broke the game wide open, and in the process seemed to sink every single thing remaining from this debacle of a Reds season with it to the bottom of Puget Sound.

It always seemed as if this Reds club was specifically constructed to be a half-run short and a dollar late. That, of course, is how you save money at the margins. The presumptive hope from the front office, it has always seemed, was that hiring a manager with Francona’s reputation would simply be enough to make up for playing with a hand constantly tied behind their backs.

That simply hasn’t worked. It sure as hell didn’t work last night.

You can certainly make the claim that if the pitchers in the bullpen who were given free agent contracts to come pitch for a team who was constantly going to be in tight games (since they can’t ever seem to blow anyone out) should have simply done their jobs better. That’s true, and has been the case all season long. But at this juncture, with grasping at every single last straw there is in an attempt to save the crap season, Tito played a hand that he had zero business playing and his bluff got called in the biggest, baddest of ways.

That’s it for the Reds. That, right there, is the nail in their coffin.

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There are some games to avoid on Dinger Tuesday as a big patch of rain is heading to the Northeast today, but despite the storm clouds, there are still some great home run and MLB player prop spots on the board today.

I have three starting pitchers circled. The ball could be flying in Colorado with one of the worst starting pitching matchups of the second half, the Marlins might be able to send Tatsuya Imai to the Houston bullpen with another bad outing, and Kohl Drake is not ready for the bright lights of the big show.

Jacob Wilson at +1140 highlights my favorite home run props for Tuesday, July 21.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Curtis Mead	+420
Liam Hicks	+710
Jacob Wilson	+1140
💲Today's HR parlay	+48737

Home run pick: Curtis Mead (+420)

The Nationals' lineup is loaded with power, and over the last 30 days, it isn't James Wood or CJ Abrams leading the team in slugging; it is Luis Garcia — but Curtis Mead is right there behind him in second.

He is 8-for-16 after the break with four extra-base hits, and this should have a fair price of +350 at Coors Field vs. Michael Lorenzen.

The Colorado starter has allowed just one dinger over his last four starts, but he has the worst BlastCont% among all MLB starters today (last 30 days), and the homers could be on their way tonight.

Looking back over the last two seasons, only two other starters today have a worse HR/9 than Lorenzen. Ball Park Pal has this as the second-best HR setting on the board today.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Nationals.TV

Home run pick: Liam Hicks (+710)

Let's hit value town in Houston, where Liam Hicks finds himself batting cleanup after launching his 14th homer off Houston's starter last night.

Hicks is crushing right-handed pitching with an .884 OPS, and 93% of his home runs this season have come against righties. Outside of the Nationals, the Marlins might have the best home run matchup on the board against Tatsuya Imai and his shaky numbers.

The right-hander ranks among the Bottom 25 qualified starters in HR/9 this season, and those numbers have only gotten worse over the last 30 days. There is plenty of strikeout upside with the first-year starter, but his MLB numbers haven't come close to matching what he posted in Japan's NPB.

This could be his final turn in the rotation, and the Nationals already got a look at him in his last outing, so the familiarity edge belongs to the hitters.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Marlins.TV

Home run pick: Jacob Wilson (+1140)

Arizona's rotation injuries are opening the door for Triple-A arm Kohl Drake to make his MLB debut today, but this does not look like a pitcher ready for the big leagues.

He owns a 6.92 ERA at Triple-A, has issued 42 walks over his last 100 innings, and allows more than a hit per inning. Right-handed hitters have accounted for 15 of the 16 homers he's allowed, but even lefties have found success, batting .351 against him.

Jacob Wilson has already gone deep twice since the All-Star break, including last night in Arizona. He's riding an eight-game hitting streak with six multi-hit performances during that stretch. 

He is absolutely raking right now and gets a matchup against a pitcher who could struggle with the bright lights and command in his MLB debut.

This is the biggest home run price I've backed all year, but the entire Athletics lineup is live in this matchup.
I'm playing Wilson down to +750.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, DBacks.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Curtis Mead	Bet Now +48737
Liam Hicks
Jacob Wilson

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The red-hot Atlanta Braves will be looking to keep it rolling tonight against the San Diego Padres as -137 home favorites. 

My Padres vs Braves predictions expect Atlanta to take advantage of the struggling Walker Buehler.

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, July 21. 

Who will win Padres vs Braves today: Braves (-137)

The Atlanta Braves send Reynaldo Lopez to the mound tonight, and he's in great form. The righty has posted a 3.34 FIP across his last five appearances while allowing just 0.86 HR/9.

As for the San Diego Padres, they counter with Walker Buehler, who has hit a tough spell. The veteran owns a 9.10 FIP in his last five outings while surrendering 3.86 HR/9. 

Those are dangerous numbers against a Braves offense carrying a .298 ISO and 171 wRC+ in their last four games. 

Expect them to stay hot against Buehler.

I'll play this pick to -150. 

COVERS INTEL: The Braves have a 43.4% hard-hit rate as a team over the last week, and Buehler has allowed a 41.7% hard-hit rate across the last month. 

Padres vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 runs (+114)

While I do expect Lopez to throw the ball well, he’s also up against a scorching-hot Padres offense. San Diego has posted a 147 wRC+ over its last four games to go along with a .259 ISO.

Both teams are swinging it well, and while each bullpen has been respectable lately, it’s hard to overlook the offensive consistency and power output. The Padres’ hard-hit rate is also just below 50% during that span.

Atlanta gives this Over another clear path, especially against Buehler, who has struggled to limit hard contact.

I’ll play this pick to -120.

Padres vs Braves weather

Padres vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Padres +127 | Braves -133
• Run line: Padres +1.5 (-156) | Braves -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+117) | Under 9.5 (-122)

Padres vs Braves trend

The Atlanta Braves have hit the team total Over in 11 of their last 14 home games (+7.50 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves.

How to watch Padres vs Braves and game info

Padres vs Braves latest injuries

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This has been the road trip of Andres Chaparro’s life. The hulking Nats first baseman has been on an absolute heater this week, rewarding the team’s faith in him. Most Nats fans were perplexed as to why the team kept giving Chaparro chance after chance. Well, he showed us why this week.

The man they call Chappy has been absolutely punishing baseballs since the Nats came back from the All-Star Break. He has not just been hitting home runs, he has been crushing majestic no doubt shots. That home run he hit in Sacramento was the longest Nats home run in years. The husky righty hit the ball over everything.

It is no secret that Andres Chaparro has big time power. Honestly, all you need to do is look at the guy. He is your prototypical burly first baseman who can send balls into orbit. Chaparro has been doing that in the minors for a long time. The 27 year old has 121 career minor league home runs, including five straight years with at least 15 homers. 

However, that minor league power did not translate to the big leagues, at least not until this week. Chaparro looked the part of a slugger, but was unable to put it together in his brief big league stints. He showed some flashes at the end of 2024, but was unable to build on that the following season.

It looked like more of the same this year. He was 9 for 54 prior to the All-Star Break, and had a lot of heat on him. Fans did not like it when Chaparro would pinch hit for Luis Garcia Jr. against left handed pitching. When a guy hitting .150 is pinch hitting for the hottest bat in baseball, the optics are not great. 

Honestly, I was getting tired of it myself. I either wanted Garcia to get a chance to play every day, or for Yohandy Morales to replace Chaparro as the platoon option. Morales was the younger, more exciting option. However, the front office saw something in Chapparro, and now he is rewarding their faith.

Whenever I checked Chaparro’s Baseball Savant page, even before his hot run, it was much better than you would expect for a guy hitting .150. He was taking his walks, hitting the ball harder than he had in the past and swinging faster. However, the results were not coming. We should have paid more attention to those under the hood numbers, because he is really turning around now.

Right now, Chaparro’s xwOBA is a stellar .390, much higher than his .350 wOBA. His hard hit rate, barrel rate, bat speed and exit velocities are also way up. When it comes to hitting, it really seems like everything this front office touches turns to gold. Even a journeyman like Chaparro is having his moment in the sun.

It is difficult to overstate just how good he has been lately. The Nats have faced a lot of left handed pitching lately, which means Chappy has gotten opportunities. In his 11 at bats since the break, he is 5 for 11 with 3 homers and 11 RBI. Even with Garcia and Wood slumping a little out of the break, the offense is still clicking, and Chaparro is a big reason for that.

The offense right now is being driven by Chaparro, CJ Abrams and Curtis Mead. It seems like there is a different trio leading the way every few weeks. Lately, it has been those three. Wood and Garcia are bound to get going soon as well.

The latest Chaparro lightning bolt came last night in the 1st inning when he hit another titanic blast. He sent one way out of Coors Field to give the Nats a 3-0 lead three batters into the game. When Chaparro gets a hold of one, you can tell instantly that it is gone. The big slugger does not get cheated.

Blake Butera and Paul Toboni are putting Chaparro in a very specific role that plays to his strengths. Throughout his minor league career and in his brief big league looks, he has mashed left handed pitching. In the first half, he was not doing that as much, but the front office trusted the track record.

One thing this front office will do is stick to their guns. Sometimes it does not work out, like with Mitchell Parker. However, they prove us right a lot, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They do a great job maximizing offensive talent and putting them in advantageous situations. Andres Chaparro is only the most recent example of this.

Chaparro is showing us that he can be a capable big leaguer as a platoon bat. He will need to build on this success, but he has taken off this week. As the title suggests, Andres Chaparro has been on a generational run lately, and long may it continue.

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The St. Louis Cardinals are -115 favorites to snap their three-game losing streak, but I don't believe that should be the case.

My Cardinals vs. Angels predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the -105 home underdogs on July 21.

Who will win Cardinals vs Angels today: Angels (-105)

To say the Los Angeles Angels have a starting pitching advantage in this game would be an understatement.

Walbert Urena has posted a sub-3.75 xERA in eight consecutive starts, and has only given up more than three runs once since April 25.

He is giving the Angels quality starts in bulk, and should be headed for another against a St. Louis Cardinals team that sits 27th in wOBA vs. righties over the past month.

The Angels own a .268 BA against lefties in July, and Matthew Liberatore bleeds hits — ranking in the 11th percentile in xBA.

Bet L.A. to -115.

COVERS INTEL:Urena ranks in the 92nd percentile with a .197 xBA this season.

Cardinals vs Angels Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (-105)

I don't get this total.

Urena is sporting a 2.83 ERA and has allowed 0.63 homers per nine innings over five matchups with Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. righties. The Cardinals not only fit the criteria but have also hit only .218 against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days.

While the Angels have strung together hits against southpaws, they sit 22nd in OPS and 29th in FB% in July.

It’ll be tough to generate homers, and I don’t see 10+ runs being scored without plenty of aid from power.

I like the Under to -125.

Cardinals vs Angels weather

Cardinals vs Angels odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals -115 | Angels -105
• Run line: Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Angels +1.5 (-170)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-115) | Under 9.0 (-105)

Cardinals vs Angels trend

Los Angeles has cashed the game total Under in 21 of its last 35 games (+6.95 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Angels.

How to watch Cardinals vs Angels and game info

Cardinals vs Angels latest injuries

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Here's what happened in Mets Land on Monday, in case you missed it...

• Freddy Peralta's return to Milwaukee did not go well as he allowed seven runs in 5.1 innings in the Mets' 8-3 defeat
• Peralta was left searching for answers as his struggles continue: "I don’t understand it"
• Carlos Beltran discussed Mets manager job following Carlos Mendoza firing: "I didn’t feel it was the right thing"
• The MLB Trade Deadline buzz started heating up with a report that Clay Holmes is drawing interest from the White Sox
• Luis Robert Jr. was activated from the IL and spoke about his "frustrating" extended absence
• The Dodgers are not ruling out Edwin Diaz making his IL return for the weekend set at Citi Field
• WATCH: How is Francisco Lindor handling the trade rumors? | Baseball Night in NY
• WATCH: Interim manager Andy Green and  Peralta discuss another poor start