Category: MLB

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Giants fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

It’s here, friends! The start of another glorious season of San Francisco Giants baseball.

After four straight years of extreme mediocrity — since winning 107 games in 2021, the Giants have won 81, 79, 80, and 81 games in the following years — the Giants will hope to break from the middle of the pack, and return to their winning ways this year.

But will they be successful in that goal? We’ll have to wait many months before we know the answer to that question … in the meantime, you get to decide.

The Orioles made their Opening Day roster official on Wednesday afternoon. They will head into the 2026 season looking like this:

Starting pitchers

• LHP Trevor Rogers
• RHP Kyle Bradish
• RHP Shane Baz
• RHP Chris Bassitt
• RHP Zach Eflin

This group was settled several days ago when the Orioles optioned Dean Kremer to the minor league camp.

Relief pitchers

• RHP Yennier Cano
• LHP Dietrich Enns
• RHP Rico Garcia
• RHP Ryan Helsley
• RHP Yaramil Hiraldo
• RHP Anthony Nunez
• RHP Tyler Wells
• LHP Grant Wolfram

Keegan Akin is starting the season on the injured list due to an adductor strain. For the time being, it seems that Anthony Nunez is the beneficiary of that. Or maybe Yaramil Hiraldo is, and Nunez is the beneficiary of the team not choosing the out-of-options Jackson Kowar to make the team.

Catchers

• Samuel Basallo
• Adley Rutschman

This was the easiest one to predict of all of them.

Infielders

• Blaze Alexander
• Pete Alonso
• Gunnar Henderson
• Jeremiah Jackson
• Coby Mayo
• Ryan Mountcastle

Up until a couple of days ago, it seemed like Luis Vázquez might get the last bench spot here, but his broken thumb takes him out of the mix. Jackson gets the nod instead, with hot spring bat Bryan Ramos missing out.

Outfielders

• Dylan Beavers
• Colton Cowser
• Tyler O’Neill
• Leody Taveras
• Taylor Ward

I don’t think that the Orioles were going to go with Heston Kjerstad instead of Taveras anyway, but Kjerstad’s hamstring injury settles that. He, too, is starting the season on the injured list.

**

The official roster moves that set things up this way:

• Jackson Holliday (hamate bone), Heston Kjerstad (hamstring strain), Jordan Westburg (right elbow sprain) placed on 10-day injured list
• Keegan Akin (groin), Andrew Kittredge (shoulder inflammation) placed on 15-day injured list
• Félix Bautista (shoulder surgery), Colin Selby (shoulder inflammation) placed on 60-day injured list
• Jackson Kowar and Bryan Ramos designated for assignment
• José Barrero, Sam Huff, Albert Suárez, Luis Vázquez, and Weston Wilson reassigned to Triple-A Norfolk

Apparently, despite some noise that Suárez might exercise his opt-out clause because of other teams having interest in him, that interest did not materialize and he decided his best bet was to wait around in Norfolk.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers may have taken the fun out of betting on the World Series odds, but there are still MLB win total odds to consider for all 30 teams ahead of Opening Day, even the ones that have no shot at making the playoffs.

My MLB picks and win total predictions for the 2026 season believe the Chicago White Sox will do a little surprising in the AL. I also see the San Diego Padres refusing to go quietly in the NL West.

American League win total picks

Seattle Mariners Over 90.5 wins (-115 at FanDuel)

The Seattle Mariners won 90 games and clinched the AL West last season, falling just short of the first World Series appearance in team history. The Mariners could be even better this year, so I'm pouncing on their Over.

The Mariners have arguably the best rotation in baseball, with Logan Gilbert getting the Opening Day nod. There's a case to be made that Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo could both serve as Game 1 guys on over half the teams in the majors.

They'll each make about half their starts in T-Mobile Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in MLB. They're also backed by a rock-solid bullpen that features closer Andres Munoz.

This lineup is nothing to sneeze at either, with Cal Raleigh looking to build on a breakout year, and Julio Rodriguez featuring as one of the best hitters in the game. The addition of Brendan Donovan is a nice feather in the cap for this bet.

Chicago White Sox Over 67.5 wins (-108 at FanDuel)

The Chicago White Sox improved from 41 wins to 60 a year ago, and I think they're due for another spike in a weak AL Central in 2026. 

I respect the Tigers, the probable division winner, but I'm not bullish on the Royals rotation, nor am I impressed with the Guardians lineup. The Twins were in full-on tank mode last season, and it could happen again if they start slowly. 

This all points to more divisional wins for the White Sox.

Shane Smith and Sean Burke each figure to take a step forward after showing promise while getting meaningful experience in 2025. This bullpen also got better with the additions of Sean Newcomb and Seranthony Dominguez.

If Jordan Hicks can figure things out as he returns to a relief role, that will be all the better for the South Siders.

Finally, while I'm not bullish on the strikeout-prone Munetaka Murakami, I'm interested to see how Colson Montgomery will fare in his sophomore season, and how Luisangel Acuna will do as a full-time player after getting only limited exposure in the big leagues with the Mets.

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National League win total picks

San Diego Padres Over 83.5 wins (-118 at FanDuel)

I'm at a loss to explain why the San Diego Padres are expected to win six fewer games in 2026.

Yes, Joe Musgrove will start the season on the IL, and Yu Darvish is out for the year, but the Padres have more than enough pitching depth to ride out the storm. Nick Pivetta and Michael King both had monster seasons for San Diego in 2025 and can replicate them.

This lineup is still as potent as ever with Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill starring, and Sung-Mun Song joining them in a utility role once he's up to speed following a training camp injury.

And lest we forget, the Padres bullpen, led by Mason Miller, was tops in the big leagues in 2025.

Milwaukee Brewers Over 85.5 wins (-118 at FanDuel)

Oddsmakers are calling for the Milwaukee Brewers to fall off a cliff in 2026, and I'm more than happy to buy the dip.

The Brewers won 97 games last year, and their offseason was not nearly as bad as this line makes it out to be. Staff ace Freddy Peralta is gone, but we've seen this movie before with Corbin Burnes getting dealt ahead of the 2024 season, and Milwaukee still managed to win 93 games.

The rotation is still a decent one with rookie sensation Jacob Misiorowski and proven veteran Brandon Woodruff anchoring it. Milwaukee's bullpen was sixth by ERA a year ago, and Trevor Megill is still there to shut the door in the ninth in 2026.

This lineup is young and highly underrated, with stars like Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang in the fold, along with veteran sluggers Christian Yelich and William Contreras.

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The Mets are among more than 15 teams interested in signing free agent reliever Drew Smith, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

Smith, 32, was released by the Nationals last week. 

In November, the Mets declined their $2 million option on the right-hander for the 2026 season.

Smith had inked a one-year deal with the aforementioned team option in February of 2025 after having his second Tommy John surgery the summer prior.

In 17.2 innings over 19 games for the Mets in 2024, Smith had a 3.06 ERA and 1.52 WHIP while striking out 23 batters -- a rate of 11.7 per nine. His 2024 season ended after an appearance on June 23, and he underwent Tommy John surgery with an internal brace procedure on July 13.

Smith debuted with the Mets in 2018 and has posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 196.1 innings over 191 big league appearances.

The Mets' bullpen to open the season will be eight deep and include:

Devin Williams
Luke Weaver
Brooks Raley
Luis Garcia
Tobias Myers
Huascar Brazoban
Richard Lovelady
Sean Manaea

Former Pittsburgh Pirate and National League MVP, Andrew McCutchen, will be on the opening day roster for the Texas Rangers. This will be McCutchen’s 18th MLB season.

After going most of the offseason with little to no communication from Pittsburgh’s front office McCutchen signed a minor league deal with the Rangers on March 6. The 39-year-old was with the team for spring training in Arizona for just three weeks but impressed Chris Young, the Rangers’ president of baseball operations, with his play and leadership qualities.

“There were a number of factors that went into it, but ultimately we felt like Cutch earned it just with his performance,” Young said. “The way he’s hit the ball, the way his approach is — [we] felt very good that he’s going to help us win a lot of games.”

While in camp ‘Cutch only had 21 at bats, but made the absolute most of his opportunities. He’d finish spring training with a slash line of .429/.556/.714 with an OPS of 1.270. The former-MVP tallied nine hits, scored five runs, hit 7 RBIs and hit one homer while reaffirming that he’s still got some game left in him.

“I was wrote off in a lot of places, honestly told to retire. But I knew deep down there was something in me that told me that there was still more in the tank and that I could continue to keep playing,” McCutchen said. “For them giving me the opportunity … I’m going to make sure that it’s worth it from both of our ends.”

McCutchen who was drafted by the Pirates in 2005 and then made his MLB debut with the club in 2009 spent his first nine seasons with Pittsburgh. In that time frame he was Baseball America’s Rookie of the Year, the NL-MVP in 2013, a Gold Glove Defender in 2012, a four-time Silver Slugger, a five-time All-Star and was the recipient of the Roberto Clemente Award in 2015. The Fort Meade native helped lead the franchise to a playoff berth in 2013 and beat the rival Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card round. Prior to this the Pirates endured a period of 20 consecutive losing seasons, a North American sports record.

The Pirates traded McCutchen to the San Francisco Giants in 2018. ‘Cutch would go on to play for the Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Brewers before returning to the Pirates in 2023 where he would spend three more seasons with the club before not being resigned this offseason. Last season he had 13 home runs and 57 RBIs with the Pirates.

Now with the Texas Rangers the veteran outfielder and designated hitter is in a locker room with several budding superstars and his leadership will bring just as much to the clubhouse and his bat. Texas manager Skip Schumaker outlined what he envisions for his new leader as a member of the Rangers.

“The more guys around that we can have like Andrew McCutchen, the better,” Schumaker said. “I think he’s going to really help a lot of these young guys play with a different mentality and edge. He came in and performed well right away. He fit right in in the clubhouse, can still play the outfield at times.”

Schumaker went on to say that while McCutchen won’t be a full time outfielder, he is a valuable piece to have in the clubhouse and on the bench.

“I don’t think you’ll see him all the time out there, but if we need him, he’ll play out there,” Schumaker said. “But just a really valuable piece to either come off the bench in a high-leverage spot or also potentially start against left-handed pitching.”

McCutchen echoed the importance of his new role.

“I told them I am at their disposal — no matter what it is, no matter what they need from me, I’m here, and that’s what I’m here for,” McCutchen said.

More than anything this is an opportunity for McCutchen to continue to play and if this is his last season to go out on his own terms, and he seems poised to take control of the situation both as a mentor and as a plug and play type of player in high leverage spots.

“This is the beginning for me to continue to keep doing what I’ve been doing since I got here. And understanding that just because I’m here doesn’t mean that I’m here to stay,” McCutchen said. “I have to remind myself of that every single day that I’m out here and that I am on the field. Even the days that I’m not starting, always knowing that there’s a way to improve, and for my peers and teammates, there’s something that I can do to be able to help them.”

The Texas Rangers open up their season in Philadelphia for a three game series with the Phillies. The Rangers will face the Pittsburgh Pirates in Arlington from April 21-23. Barring any kind of reunion with the Pirates this season or a move to a team that will play in Pittsburgh this season, McCutchen will not play at PNC Park in 2026.

Yesterday, I released my first college plus high school big board of the 2026 MLB Draft cycle, which you can find here. My college rankings were what shook up the most in the process of updating my board, as through 6 weeks of NCAA play, we’ve seen some players rise to the occasion and break out, and some have taken a step backwards. With about 3 1/2 months remaining until the draft in July, let’s take a look at some hitters who shot up my rankings and could be in play for the Nats with the 11th overall pick.

Vahn Lackey C Georgia Tech

Lackey is my 6th-ranked prospect in the 2026 draft class after being ranked in the teens on my first college big board. Entering 2026, Lackey was a tooled-up backstop who I recognised the potential to have a big 2026 in, but needed to see a more consistent plate approach in, as well as more in-game power. So far through 24 games, he’s done both, more than doubling his BB/K ratio from 0.66 in 2025 to 1.50 in 2026 and surpassing his 2025 home run total of 6 with 9 already. His 85th percentile whiff rate and 77th percentile average exit velocity amongst all college hitters in 2025 demonstrated his ability to put it all together, and that’s exactly what he’s done this season for the Yellow Jackets.

Behind the plate, Lackey’s elite athleticism shines through, as he excels at blocking balls in the dirt and gunning down basestealers. He also has some great wheels, not only for a catcher, but for anyone, stealing 18 bags in 2025 and up to 7 already in 2026. Lackey has drawn comparisons to current Nationals catcher Harry Ford as a prospect, who was committed to play at Georgia Tech before being drafted by the Mariners, but Lackey’s success has been against ACC pitching, making it easier to project his success translating to pro ball.

Chris Hacopian INF Texas A&M

Hacopian moved up my college hitter rankings slightly from 6th to 5th, making him my 12th-ranked prospect in the 2026 draft class overall. After missing some games with a back injury to start this season, Hacopian has excelled for the Aggies, with a 134 wRC+ and 2.00 BB/K ratio in 10 games. He has one of the best eyes in all of college baseball, with an 87th percentile chase rate in 2025 and walking over twice as much as he’s struck out in both 2025 and 2026. There’s thunder in Hacopian’s bat as well, as he smacked 14 home runs in 52 games last season, with an impressive 97th percentile average exit velocity on the year, and he’s hit 3 in his 10 games in 2026.

Defensively, Hacopian’s most likely defensive home in pro ball would seemingly be third base, as he likely lacks the range necessary for shortstop at the big league level, but he’s gotten plenty of reps at second base as well for the Aggies. Hacopian has the potential to move quickly through a minor league system due to his excellent plate approach and raw power, and could be manning the 4 or 5 spot on the diamond for the Nats before the likes of Eli Willits and Gavin Fien arrive.

Sawyer Strosnider OF TCU

Like Lackey, I recognised the potential for a breakout 2026 for Strosnider due to his excellent raw power, but needed to see more consistency in his plate approach before I could fully buy in, as he struck out 18.7% of the time and posted a 0.43 BB/K ratio in 2025. He’s silenced all concerns of mine to begin 2025, nearly tripling his BB/K ratio from 0.43 to 1.29, as well as tapping more into his power in-game, with 8 home runs in 23 games, well above his 2025 pace of 11 bombs in 56 games. A draft-eligible sophomore this season, Strosnider is putting it all together offensively at the right time, with strong exit velocities and an improved chase rate resulting in a 139 wRC+ so far in 2026.

Defensively, Strosnider is athletic enough to handle center field, but he currently resides in right field for the Horned Frogs due to another draft-eligible outfielder, Chase Brunson, being out there. He’s shown plus run times before, and he’s gotten even better at swiping bags in 2026, with 8 steals so far in 23 games. Overall, if Strosnider continues to outwalk his strikeouts the way he has to start this year, he might outplay himself from Nationals territory in the draft. If the Nats did get their hands on him, he could immediately become the best current outfield prospect in the Nationals farm system, with the potential to be up in DC patrolling the grass by 2028.

Here are the 26 men who will line up on the third-base line at Wrigley Field Thursday afternoon before the Cubs’ season opener against the Nationals.

Most of these were well-known before; a few were added over the last couple of days. All groups are listed in alphabetical order, except for the starting pitchers, who I have listed in the rotation order where I believe they will begin the season.

Catchers (2)

Miguel Amaya, Carson Kelly

Infielders (5)

Alex Bregman, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Scott Kingery, Dansby Swanson

Outfielders (5)

Dylan Carlson, Michael Conforto, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Matt Shaw

Designated hitter (1)

Moisés Ballesteros

Starting pitchers (5)

Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Shōta Imanaga, Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon

Relief pitchers (8)

Ben Brown, Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Daniel Palencia, Colin Rea, Caleb Thielbar, Jacob Webb

Of these 26 men, nine (Bregman, Cabrera, Carlson, Conforto, Harvey, Kingery, Maton, Milner and Webb) were not in the Cubs organization last year. Three others (Ballesteros, Horton, Palencia) were not on last year’s Opening Day roster.

Three of these players (Carlson, Conforto and Kingery) were non-roster invitees to Spring Training. As such, three players had to be removed from the 40-man roster to make room for them. Those moves began late Tuesday when Tyler Austin was placed on the 60-day injured list and Carlson was added. It’s entirely possible Austin will never play for the Cubs.

Here are the other two 40-man roster moves to add Conforto and Kingery:

Justin Steele was placed on the 60-day injured list. That would target a late May or early June return.

Right-handed reliever Jack Neely was designated for assignment. Neely, who was acquired along with Ben Cowles from the Yankees in the Mark Leiter Jr. deal in 2024, pitched in six games for the Cubs that year with a 9.00 ERA, but did not appear for the team in 2025.

Three other roster moves were announced Wednesday. Seiya Suzuki was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right knee sprain (retroactive to March 22), right-handed pitcher Porter Hodge was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right elbow strain (retroactive to March 22), and left-handed pitcher Jordan Wicks was placed on the 15-day injured list with left forearm inflammation (retroactive to March 22).

There are your Opening Day Cubs. Looking forward to a big year for the North Siders!

Doing the A’s and the Astros’ prospect previews was, to be honest, an exercise in schadenfreude. I had a great time doing it! But it’s time now for just freude, no schaden. 

Evaluators Overview

Baseball America: 10th in organizational rankings, 4 prospects in Top 100 (SS Colt Emerson (#7), LHP Kade Anderson (#25), OF Lazaro Montes (#58), RHP Ryan Sloan (#60). 

Baseball Prospectus: 11th in organizational rankings, 5 Top-101 prospects (SS Colt Emerson (#14), LHP Kade Anderson (#28), RHP Ryan Sloan (#32), 2B Michael Arroyo (#35) OF Lazaro Montes (#97) . 

FanGraphs: Org rank not updated, but ended 2025 ~6th, 7 Top-100 prospects: SS Colt Emerson (#11), RHP Ryan Sloan (#20), LHP Kade Anderson (#50), OF Jonny Farmelo (#51), OF Lazaro Montes (#66) 2B Michael Arroyo (#78), SS Felnin Celesten (#86). 

MLB Pipeline: 8th in organizational rankings, 6 Top-100 prospects: SS Colt Emerson (#9), LHP Kade Anderson (#21), RHP Ryan Sloan (#33), OF Lazaro Montes (#43), 2B Michael Arroyo (#67), OF Jonny Farmelo (#78)

In summary, there are 4 consensus Top-100 prospects from across the organization: Colt Emerson (averaging 10th in the rankings), Kade Anderson (avg 31st), Ryan Sloan (avg 36th), and Laz Montes (avg 66th). There’s another three who are consensus top-100 or adjacents in Michael Arroyo, Jonny Farmelo and Felnin Celesten.

The Mariners’ current farm system represents the restocking of the cupboards, another wave that’s beginning to grow after the last washed George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, Bryce Miller and Matt Brash ashore. Will this wave of prospects match the group that’s produced, combined, a Rookie of the Year, 7 All-Star selections, 2 Silver Sluggers, a Gold Glove, a Home Run Derby Championship, and 5 top-15 MVP finishes in four seasons? 

No, probably not. The drop-off is steep after the top 12 or 13 prospects. There’s no longer a seemingly-endless supply of at least replacement level talent keeping Seattle’s farm in the second tier of organizations, and you can’t count only on your top-end guys to succeed – you have to hit on some breakouts from the depths.

That being said, the Mariners have put together a farm system that’s particularly rich at the top, even as they have traded away top-end talent; Harry Ford and Jurrangelo Cijntje (traded this offseason for José Ferrer and Brendan Donovan respectively) both make the back-half of most publications’ top-100 lists, and Tai Peete was also a top-10 prospect in the system. After those trades, MLB Pipeline still has the Mariners tied for the most top-100 prospects. 

We are lucky enough to have Max Ellingsen, professional Ball Knower, writing prospect evals and content for Lookout Landing, which means you are all lucky enough to get to read his work, including the prospect rankings series that is currently underway. With that being said, it would be redundant and silly for me to give you prospect by prospect breakdowns for our top players. Instead, I’ll break this out by approximate ETA and give a high-level overview of who and what is to come, focusing on players in our informal top 4 tiers of prospects and when you might see them. 

2026/2027:

Tier 1: Despite speculation that Colt Emerson might start the season at SS while J.P. Crawford recovers from his shoulder woes, the Mariners shut that down by assigning him to the Minors just this last weekend. It’s the right decision – 20-year-old Emerson should be given the time he needs to develop and be Ready, rather than be rushed up as an injury stop-gap and then sent back down. Emerson didn’t look as overwhelmed as he did last spring, but he still struck out twice as much as he walked, looking overmatched against the top pitching talent he faced. There’s no need to disrupt his development at this point, especially because he doesn’t need that much more time to cook – you’ll probably see Emerson up this summer, where he has a chance to be crucial to the Mariners’ playoff run. 

Kade Anderson is a lefty starter with two plus breaking balls and a fastball that plays up in the zone. Are you sold yet? You should be. That’s basically all we need to say. He’s an incredibly polished 21-year-old who probably would be in the starting rotation for some teams with a weak staff. The Mariners do not, probably to his benefit – again, no need to rush a prospect who could be good now if he could be great in a year or so. He’ll be up next summer at the latest.  

Tier 2: Michael Arroyo has been championed by our own John Trupin for long enough that we’ve all grown used to believing in him, but the national landscape has finally caught up to John. He’s well-regarded as a hitter at this point, shaking off the concerns about his 5’9” frame, showing a little bit of power as well. He’s been moved from shortstop to second, mostly for Seattle’s embarrassment of riches at the position, and will see time in the outfield. I expect to see him playing significant time this year if Refsnyder/Canzone and co. don’t get it done in right field. 

Laz, Laz, Laz. You dirty bastards (and our own staff! shame!) predicted him as the biggest prospect faller for the Mariners in our annual predictions survey. You leave my large barely-adult son alone. Hating on Lazaro Montes is a symptom of 70-power and 6’5” jealousy. His pop is undeniable. His bat? Well. Put it down as potentially deniable. He has a tough road to staying in the outfield, even in the corners, but see him as a potential late 2027 DH fill-in to start. 

Tier 4:Teddy McGraw is the best name in the system by far. Bryce Miller wishes he was named Teddy McGraw. If he can stay healthy, the starter-turned-reliever could see a debut as early as this season. His hot-and-heavy sinker and slider play off each other, and while two plus pitches does not a starter make, a reliever it just may, especially if it plays up in the pen. Call it late 2026 or early 2027. 

2028/2029:

Tier 1: I’m not going to spoil too much for the aforementioned series, but Max messaged me today that he doesn’t recall a pitching prospect that he likes more than Ryan Sloan. There’s everything to love and nothing to hate about Sloan. There’s some minor disagreement about his ETA, and putting him as a 2028 debut might be conservative, but I am having a tough time seeing where he fits in the picture over the next two seasons given the currently-elite five starters the Mariners have. 

Tier 2:Jonny Farmelo is a prospect I will be happy to be wrong about. I’ve never really understood the hype, but that is probably just a me thing. It might be that we’ve just yet to really see him play. He’s seen nothing but injuries over the last two seasons since being drafted in 2023. His talent has been displayed before, but only in short bursts, and I’m not sold enough yet on the bat to feel like it’s only a matter of time. He needs two full, healthy seasons to develop at the plate before sneaking his way onto the 2028 or 2029 lineup. 

Tier 3:Felnin Celesten, the phoenix. A prospect that people loved to love from 2021-2023, and loved to hate the last couple of years. Chalk him up similar to Farmelo – he’s in a real prove-it moment this season. He doesn’t need to hit more than 15 homers if the bat can be plus with great placement into the gaps, and the glovework at shortstop can carry him. I have him as a better defender than Emerson, so perhaps Celesten will be what eventually moves Emerson to the hot corner in 2029. 

Luke Stevenson is allegedly good, according to folks smarter than me. He’s in the same boat as Farmelo – I see him as having a decent floor but I think he’s got a real back-loaded bell curve of outcomes, unlikely to hit his top-end. I’d love to be wrong! He might be ready to backing up Cal by the end of 2028, giving the M’s a reliable backup catcher who can get Cal some more days at DH.

Tier 4: Korbyn Dickerson profiles, on the pessimistic end, as a dynamic center-fielder who can be a dependable 4th outfielder with plus defense at each spot. He’s a fun power-speed guy with a lot of upside but also a decent amount of downside. Planning on 2029 would give him a fantastic amount of runway to iron out some flaws on the hit tool. 

2030 and Beyond:

Tier 3: Nick Becker won’t be in this tier for much longer. Max wrote in his prospect ranking write-up that Becker might have the highest upside in the system. Given that this is a farm heavy on the upside, that’s incredibly high praise. I’m worried about  the janky swing, but he’s 18! This is stuff that can all be worked out. The middle-infield pipeline is thick and rich, so he’s got lots of time to develop. Tools galore – let’s check back in in 2030 and see where he’ll fit in. 

What if Lazaro Montes had plus speed and a cannon for an arm? That might be Yorger Bautista. He’s just 18, signing during the 2025 J15 window, but the young outfielder has ridiculous potential. 70-grade pop in a 6’1” frame with the maturity of a player several years ahead of him should have you drooling. 2026 will be his first time stateside, so give him 4 years or so to develop. 

Griffin Hugus, the funniest name in the system! The most nicknameable, for sure. The most currently Tommy-Johned. So, put the expectations back quite a bit. 2029 will be the first year we’ll be able to get him a real evaluation. 

Tier 4: You’ve heard it first – Juan Rijo could be the real deal. I think that he has upside that rivals some of the prospects in the top tier of the system. I love, love, LOVE the swing – I love the bat path, I love the swing, and I think that as he grows into his frame, we can see true plus power and a plus bat. You don’t see 18-year-olds with this level of polish on the swing. No jank here! Like Bautista, let’s see him with 4 years to play stateside. 

The Mariners are in a rare, blessed spot right now. The major-league club is ultra-competitive and has a wealth of cheap, controllable talent, while the farm is well-stocked with a dozen prospects that gives them the flexibility that every front office prizes. The Mariners can build a sustainable engine of consistent playoff appearances, extending their most key players now and letting this next wave fill in some gaps. Or, they can read the table, push in their chips, and go all in, now, and add great or elite talent for a shot at a title or two. Not a bad place to be. 

Opening Day is here tomorrow and the bold predictions are flying in the Slack chat, so I’ve pulled together the hottest takes from masthead. Some are reasonable. Some are absolutely nuclear. All of them are compelling.

Let’s get into it with Daniel, who set things off:

Daniel Vonderwalde

• Jake Fraley hits 20+ home runs
• The Rays make the playoffs, with Brody Hopkins starting one of those postseason games

Ian Malinowski

• Griffin Jax ends the season as a starter with a combined ERA under 3.00 across all roles
• Drew Rasmussen finishes top-5 in Cy Young voting
• Ben Williamson puts up more fWAR than Giancarlo Stanton
• Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero all outproduce their projections thanks to the new pitching machines (nobody else has the old setup baked into the projections anymore)

Danny Russell

• The Rays finally have a closer, and his name is Bryan Baker — he picks up 37 saves
• But the Rays lose 80 games

Jason Collette

• Bryan Baker records 20 saves
• Ian Seymour picks up 10 wins
• Chandler Simpson steals 100 bases and adds a bunch of infield hits (he had 58 steals last season) — he’s going to love playing on the turf instead of weather-hardened infields

Darby Robinson

• Shane McClanahan wins Comeback Player of the Year
• Carson Williams has a 20-20-20 season (20 HR / 20 2B / 20 SB)
• My biggest hot take: the 2026 season will remind us a lot of 2018 Rays

Cole Mitchem

• Jacob Melton posts the highest WAR/PA ratio of any Rays position player
• Rays total catcher WAR ranks in the top half of baseball
• Chandler Simpson has a strong first half, then gets surprisingly traded at the deadline for a controllable big-league pitcher

Brett Rutherford

• Ryan Pepiot leads all Rays pitchers in fWAR, even after an early-season IL trip
• The Rays trade Drew Rasmussen at the deadline but remain in contention, with Brody Hopkins seamlessly replacing him in the rotation
• The Rays finish the season with two catchers who are not currently in the organization

Homin Lee

• Nick Fortes has the highest fWAR by a Rays catcher since Mike Zunino in 2021
• Three Rays pitchers will throw over 162 innings (I called this last year too… and it actually happened)

Adam Sanford

• Kevin Cash is fired at the end of the season (Editor’s note: !!!)

Bradley Woodrum

• Drew Rasmussen finishes 4th or better in Cy Young voting (much to the delight of whichever team employs him)
• Xavier Isaac is traded mid-season (internal projections have soured on his contact rate, and the front office looks to cash out on his prospect value)

There you go — every hot take ready for print. Please now feel empowered to argue with (or defend) specific site contributors all season long.

Which hot takes are you buying? Which ones are you laughing at the most? Let us know in the comments.

Let’s go Rays!

Congratulations, everyone: you did it. You made it through the long, cold, winter months, and emerged onto the glorious other side, where baseball awaits you. The offseason is over. The preseason is over. San Francisco Giants baseball is here, in all her glory and looming disappointment.

After Tuesday’s camp cuts, the Giants Opening Day roster really started to come into focus. And now we have the full 26-player roster, as announced by the team.

There’s nothing surprising, based on what we knew going into the day, though plenty is surprising relative to what we knew when Spring Training started six weeks ago. The biggest news is something the team had been trending towards all offseason and preseason: outfielder Luis Matos was designated for assignment. San Francisco has been pessimistic about their chances of sneaking Matos through waivers, but they waited until the last possible moment to increase their odds. It probably won’t work, but we’ll see.

As had become increasingly clear in recent weeks, speedster Jared Oliva made the Opening Day roster, a remarkable achievement for a 30-year old NRI with just 26 MLB games to his name, and none since 2021. The Giants were enamored with his ability to come off the bench and steal a base, and didn’t feel the need for a stronger hitter given their everyday players in the grass.

Daniel Susac, a Rule 5 pick and little brother of Andrew, did as was expected and made the team as the backup catcher. Critically, his main competitor in camp, veteran Eric Haase, was released, not reassigned, which means Jesús Rodríguez is now the next man up behind the dish.

There seemed to be two spots in the bullpen for three righties: Keaton Winn, and NRIs Caleb Kilian and Michael Fulmer. The Giants thankfully went with stuff over veteran experience, opting to keep Winn and Kilian, while reassigning Fulmer to AAA Sacramento. To make a space on the roster for Kilian, lefty Reiver Sanmartín was placed on the 60-Day Injured List.

And finally, as we knew was going to happen but couldn’t officially be done until today, the Giants placed righty reliever Joel Peguero and southpaw reliever Sam Hentges on the 15-Day IL.

Here’s the full roster that will take the field tonight at 5:05 p.m. PT against the New York Yankees. It’s a balanced bullpen, but a bench that doesn’t have a left-handed bat.

Catchers (2)
Patrick Bailey
Daniel Susac

Infielders (6)
Willy Adames
Luis Arráez
Matt Chapman
Rafael Devers
Christian Koss
Casey Schmitt

Outfielders (5)
Harrison Bader
Jerar Encarnación
Jung Hoo Lee
Jared Oliva
Heliot Ramos

Starting pitchers (5)
Adrian Houser
Tyler Mahle
Robbie Ray
Landen Roupp
Logan Webb

Right-handed relievers (5)
JT Brubaker
José Buttó
Caleb Kilian
Ryan Walker
Keaton Winn

Left-handed relievers (3)
Ryan Borucki
Matt Gage
Erik Miller

Your 2026 Giants, everyone!

Charlie O. Finley had a lot of crazy ideas during his time as owner of the Athletics.  Some of the ideas, like having a designated hitter for the pitcher, night games for the World Series, ball girls manning the foul lines and brightly colored uniforms were ahead of their time.  He also had radio broadcasts of Athletics’ games piped into bathrooms at the stadium, so people could still hear the action while answering the call of nature.  Seems common sense now, but back then, things were different.

Some of Finley’s other ideas were, shall we say, unusual.  He had a flock of sheep, eating the grass on the berm behind the outfield wall.  He had a shepherd too.  He had a mechanical rabbit named Harvey, who would pop out of the ground and deliver balls to the home plate umpire.  Harvey startled more than one unsuspecting batter.

 He had a Missouri mule, nicknamed Charlie O. (of course) who often traveled with the team and occasionally made a foray into hotel lobbies and restaurants.  Finley was a strange cat.

One of his worst ideas was his conviction that the Athletics were losing so many games (compared to the Yankees) because the right field wall in Municipal was 325 feet away from home plate.  The right field wall in Yankee Stadium, which had been grandfathered in, was a mere 296.  Finley was 100% convinced this was the problem.  Forget that the Athletics couldn’t hit for much power, or that their pitching staff was loaded with sore armed rejects from other teams.  Forget that they probably had at least ten players who shouldn’t have been in the majors at all.

Finley’s solution to this was twofold: The first was to shorten the fence in right to 296 feet to match Yankee Stadium.  Finley called it his “Pennant Porch”.  This stunt lasted all of two exhibition games before Major League Baseball put its foot down and made Finley revert the fence back to 325.  In response, Finley painted a line in the outfield grass and had the announcer bellow “That would have been a home run in Yankee Stadium” every time an Athletic hitter pushed one past the 296 mark.  That stunt died a quick death as well, as opposing hitters were surpassing the line more frequently than Athletic hitters.

The second solution, which was a good one, at least in theory, was to bring in some power hitters.  In that vein, Finley acquired two of the American League’s most prolific long ball hitters, Jim Gentile and Rocky Colavito. 

There’s been ten men named Rocky who have played major league baseball, including one of my favorites, Rocky Bridges.  Rocky Colavito is the most successful of that group. 

On November 18^th, 1963, the Athletics sent the popular Jerry Lumpe, Ed Rakow and Dave Wickersham to Detroit for Colavito, Bob Anderson and $50,000.  Colavito’s salary for the 1964 season also happened to be $50,000.  Remember that tidbit.

By the time he pulled on an Athletic uniform, Colavito was already an established star. 

He had been a high school dropout, signed by the Indians as a 17-year-old, after a workout at Yankee Stadium.  Colavito, known as The Rock naturally, was a strapping 6’3, 190-pound specimen with a cannon attached to his right shoulder.  The Indians scout watched him fire missiles from the outfield and figured they could teach him to hit.  Colavito is often overlooked when baseball scribes talk about who had the strongest outfield arm of all time. Clemente seems to be the gold standard.  Bo Jackson had a cannon.  Dave Parker could wing it. When his head was screwed on straight, Yasil Puig could bring it.  Colavito could throw with any of them.  Colavito could easily throw a ball over the center field fence from home plate.  If that doesn’t impress you, try it sometime.

Colavito got into five games as a 21-year-old, then blossomed into a star at the age of 22.

He became an icon in Cleveland, hitting 129 home runs with 373 RBI in his first four full seasons.  He electrified fans with his strong arm, often gunning down any runner foolish enough to challenge him.

The Tribe crushed their fanbase when they traded Colavito to the Tigers prior to the 1960 season.  The Rock spent four years in Motown and didn’t miss a beat, mashing another 139 home runs and driving home 430. 

When he came to Kansas City for the 1964 season, the Athletics were getting a bona fide star.  The Rock did what he was paid to do, hitting 34 long balls and driving home 102.  His slash was an impressive .274/.366/.507.  He made the American League All-Star team and was worth 4.1 WAR.

Colavito’s best game as an Athletic came on July 22^nd, at Minnesota.  He went 3 for 4 with two home runs and four RBI with 9 total bases, part of a 6 to 4 Athletic win.  Colavito had a fifteen-game stretch in June without a home run and another 14-game dry spell in late August/early September, which probably had Finley questioning his strategy.

The Rocky Colavito experience was short lived.  On January 30^th, KC sent him back to Cleveland as part of a three-way deal with the White Sox.  The Athletics picked up Mike Hershberger, Jim Landis and Fred Talbot.  The Indians sent Tommy Agee and Tommy John to the White Sox.  As David Spade would say, “Daaaanng”.

The Athletics should have just flipped Colavito to the Indians for John and Agee.  Why did the Athletics trade him?  Was it because Finley realized that more home runs didn’t translate into more wins or was it because now Finley would be on the hook for Colavito’s 1965 salary?

Colavito bounced around a bit at the end of his career, first Cleveland, then the White Sox, then off to the Dodgers and finally 39 games with the Yankees in 1968. 

He ended his career with almost 45 WAR and was a nine-time All-Star. 

He did some coaching in retirement and spent several seasons coaching with the Royals.  He was a hands-on participant in the Pine tar game, trying to spirit George Brett’s bat away from the umps and he once got arrested with Royals manager Dick Howser after a traffic stop. I remember seeing Colavito at the Stadium in those days and was always in a state of awe, having heard of his exploits from my father, who was a big Indians fan back in the day.

Colavito was immensely popular wherever he played.  Late in life he struggled with Type II diabetes, which eventually cost him his life.  He passed away on December 19^th, 2024, at the age of 91.

Less than two weeks after picking up Colavito, the Athletics sent their All-Star first baseman Norm Siebern to the Orioles in exchange for the 30-year-old Gentile and $25,000.  So, Finley got two sluggers and essentially had their old teams paying their 1964 salaries.  I can’t think of anything more Charlie O. Finley than that. 

When he was younger, Gentile was a highly thought of, and desired, minor-league star.  He originally signed with the Dodgers but was blocked by Gil Hodges.  Roy Campanella nicknamed Gentile “Diamond Jim” because he thought him a diamond in the rough.  Campy had a good eye for talent.  The Dodgers held onto Gentile, always asking for too much in return, while he destroyed minor league pitching.  He didn’t get a real shot until he was 26, when Baltimore acquired him.  He responded by hitting .292 with 21 home runs and 98 RBI in just 138 games.  He made his first All-Star team, finished second in the Rookie of the Year vote (behind teammate Ron Hansen) and picked up some down-ballot MVP votes.  Over the next three seasons, Gentile was one of the league’s steadiest power hitters.  He led the American League in RBI in 1961 with 141, while bashing 46 home runs.

Giving up Siebern was a big price, having developed into an All-Star himself.  He was a year younger than Gentile and though he had some power (a career high 25 bombs in 1962), he wasn’t quite in Gentile’s power class.

In retrospect, the trade worked out well for both teams.  Over a season and a half (174 games) with Kansas City, Gentile hit 38 home runs and drove home another 93.  He was worth about 2.1 WAR during his KC tenure.  Siebern also made the All-Star team for the Orioles, his last, and over 256 games in Baltimore, was worth 4.5 WAR.

Gentile was a streaky home run hitter, often going 8-10 games without a dinger, then hitting four or five over the next week. 

He had a terrific game against Boston on June 7^th, 1964, at Municipal, going 3 for 4 with two home runs, five RBI and nine total bases.

He duplicated that feat against the Indians on August 30^th.

In those days, the Athletics were in a near constant state of flux.  On June 5^th, 1965, they gave up on their power experiment and sent Gentile to the Houston Colt 45’s for pitcher Jim Hickman and utility infielder Ernie Fazio.  Hickman appeared in 13 games for Kansas City, while Fazio got in 27 games in 1966. 

Gentile toiled in Houston for parts of two seasons before ending his career with Cleveland in 1966, where he was reunited with Colavito.  Gentile played for AAA San Diego Padres of the Pacific Coast League in 1967 and 1968, but finding no takers for his services, went to Japan and closed out his career with one season playing for the Osaka Buffaloes.

He had a solid career, worth 17 WAR and six All-Star appearances.  His numbers would have been better had he not been marooned in the Dodgers’ minor league system during his younger prime.

In retirement, he did some managing in the minor leagues during the early 2000’s.  Gentile remains one of the oldest living Athletics, currently at the age of 91.

The 1963 Athletics hit only 95 home runs (last in the American League) and scored 615 runs.  The pitching staff gave up 704, which kept them in some games.  The 1963 staff gave up 156 home runs, which was middle of the pack in the American League.

The 1963 team finished with a 73-89 record (Their second highest win total while in Kansas City).

The 1964 Athletics, with Gentile and Colavito on board, hit 166 home runs (3^rd most in the league) but only scored 621 runs.  The pitching staff gave up 836 runs, the most in the league by a fair margin.  The 1964 staff gave up 220 dingers, 39 more than the next closest team.  Gulp.  That led to a disastrous 57-105-1 season.   Turns out having a shorter fence or more power hitters wasn’t the problem after all. 

The power bump did nothing for attendance.  The 1963 Athletics drew 762,364, good for 8^th in a ten-team league.  Despite jacking more long balls, the 1964 team only drew 642,478 to Municipal, a 16% decline.

I think about the 1964 season often, with the Royals’ announcement that they are moving in the fences for the 2026 season.  The other team hits too, you know.  Who knows, maybe it’ll work out. 

Henry Bolte might have been the MVP of the A’s 2026 camp and even though he was optioned before the end of spring training he has put himself squarely on the map for an early call up whenever there is a need in the outfield. I sat down with Bolte on Saturday, March 14th, to discuss his approach, his progress, his personality, and what he thinks of Cindi. Unfortunately, we ran out of time just before we got to the Cindi part but enjoy the rest.

Nico: My understanding is it’s Henry BOL-tay.

Bolte: That’s right.

Nico: So I’m going to get that right and earn brownie points. K, first question…the reputation that you came with as a minor leaguer was that you were very cerebral and that maybe sometimes you out thought yourself or got in your own head, that’s what we heard a couple of years ago. I’m curious what your assessment is. Was that accurate or who are you as a person trying to become a hitter?

Bolte: Yeah, I think there’s definitely a mental aspect to it. You know, sometimes it can be too too much. I always joke sometimes the simpler or more stupid in a sense you can be at the plate — not actually but the more simple you can make it at the plate a lot of the times you can have a little more success or it becomes a little bit easier simplifying things .

So I think yeah that’s that’s something to balance: you want to have a good approach, being be informed going up to the plate with what you’re dealing with, but then at the end of the day you got to go compete. It’s kind of a battle at the plate every time, so you want to make sure that that’s the main focus.

Nico: So before we get more into the baseball, let’s continue on with the person. I would love to know who you are, who you were as a kid. Obviously, any wacky stories are appreciated, but just like, what is your personality and what is it that you bring to hitting and defense?

Bolte: I kind of did a little bit of everything when I was younger in terms of sports (but) baseball stuck for me as the main sport. I played seriously, like high school and then even middle school. But when I was younger, I was trying to do a little bit of everything. My parents were super supportive of getting me out and trying different stuff, do whatever, play different sports, be active.

And so in that I was always competing with my friends, my brother, whatever it was, being competitive. So that’s something I think I’ve carried out through my life. It’s just become part of my life. me so it’s something that I bring to the field, and yeah I think that’s that’s something from being a young kid just trying everything. It’s kind of shaped me a little bit for who I am now.

Nico: Older brother?

Bolte: Yes yeah.

Nico: So were you often playing with older kids?

Bolte: Not a ton but like maybe stuff around the house with him. I had my own age friends and there was a good friend group that I kind of went through and played as a young kid all these sports with. So not too much, but here and there, yeah.

Nico: So the reason I ask is that as a professional that’s pretty much been your lot, which is you are always competing against guys who are older, because you were drafted out of high school. What has that been like in terms of your confidence, in terms of your growth?

Bolte: I think it’s an adjustment, you know, it’s an adjustment for anyone coming into professional baseball, purely just off of how many games you play, the day-to-day is much different than certainly high school, college, I would imagine the same. But yeah, it’s an adjustment. It’s maybe a little bit more of a shock or a ‘sink or swim’ thing for a high school kid at least.

You kind of have to get in and it’s just the reality that you’re playing against older kids now for a little while and so it’s something to just figure out. And so I think it helps you grow, anytime you’re around players who are better than you. You know, it’s that way in baseball and in life. You want to be around people who are at the level you want to be at, and it’ll kind of push you to be better. So I think it’s always a good thing.

Nico: Now coming into this spring training, you’ve always had pretty much the same strength and weakness profile, which is really toolsy, exciting prospect, strikes out too much. And what I wanted to know is from a more personal point of view, it can’t feel good to have a high K -rate when that’s what you’re working on, and you’re making adjustments. And it has improved every year, but it’s always been that. dark cloud hanging over. What has that been like for you, just on a personal level?

Bolte: You always want to be a well-rounded player, so anything that you have that’s an area for improvement you want to work on. That’s a funny one because I think it can be a thing that works against you to focus too much on it. So there are times where trying to cut down on swing and miss leads to more. And you want to take at bats with the intention of doing damage and putting up a good at bat. And that’s really the focus.

So that’s been, the last couple of years, the real focus of going into at bats, of just trying to have a quality at bat and win the at bat. And the result will take care of itself. You’ll find that that is the focus. You’ll strike out less. And then not worrying about it. It’s you want — to put the ball in play and make things happen on the field and give yourself a chance. But at the end of the day, sometimes you’re going to strike out and sometimes it can be a product of doing damage. If you look up and there’s guys punching out and putting up good numbers, it’s not as big of a deal.

So I think if you can produce still, you don’t want to want to punch out, but you don’t want to focus on it too much, because if you can go out there and put up a good at bat, produce good things will probably happen. And that number will probably be be down.

Nico: So now you fast forward to spring training. Your stats are starting to look like a misprint. {Bolte was hitting .375/.419/.675, with 3 HR in 40 AB, when he was optioned.} I mean, it’s really amazing the spring you’re having. Has something changed? Has something shifted? Is there something you can point to to say, “Hey, this is why now I’m doing the damage that I’ve been talking about?”

Bolte: No, I think just just keeping that that mentality of going out there and trying to win every at bat and really every pitch individually. You know if you keep that focus, you’re able to turn the page quicker from pitch to pitch, at bat to at bat, and keep a fresh mindset. I’m going up there trying to treat every at that like I’m 0 for 0 on the spring or on the season, you know first at bat, so really just just being in the moment being present and thinking about those things and and what you can control has been huge for me.

Nico: There’s an interesting thing if you look at your Statcast page look at your metrics, and I don’t know how much you look at those things but the only thing that’s in a really low percentile even beyond like ‘swing and miss’ or ‘strikeouts’: in the 1st percentile is ‘pull air’. Like you just don’t hit fly balls to left. I was wondering if you were aware of that — I haven’t had a chance to see you hit very much to to know what is behind that.

Bolte: I mean I think historically, going back to that that thing of trying to figure out some of the context stuff and take good at bats, I’ve always been one to try to let the ball get deep and I can I can work really well to the to the opposite field and have success there. But you do want to pull the ball for sure.

And that’s been a thing I’ve been trying to do: get on time, pull it a little bit more, which this spring has been great. I’ve gotten some balls in the air to the pull side, which have been great. I think last year in Vegas, it was down a lot. Wrist was bugging me. It was hard to kind of swing the way I wanted to, I felt like. So I think that impacted it, at least for those, whatever, 34 games, 35 games I played there.

So it’s been there, but definitely an area to work on. And I think that comes with just being on time. and kind of catching the pitches where I want to. And then that’ll take care of itself.

Nico: It’s interesting because I think, I didn’t see this in the Statcast, but I think you do pull balls on the ground. It’s just interesting. You don’t lift balls that you pull. Do you look at that stuff? Like, is that part of your being cerebral or no?

Bolte: No, I don’t. I don’t see that stuff too much. Honestly, I don’t really have access to it or know where to where to get most of that. But, you know, I’m not I’m not too concerned with where I’m where I’m hitting it or all that. Really just trying to go up there and hit the ball hard. If you can make solid contact, chances are good things will happen. Whether it’s middle of the field, pull, or opposite field, just barreling the ball is really my focus.

Nico: So I talked to Max Muncy around this time last year, and he was not expected to make the team. And we talked about sort of where he saw this season going. Next thing you know, he’s on the opening day roster. So here we sit now. You’ve had a great spring, yhere is a depth chart. We know who the outfielders are. How are you seeing where you stand as far as the season starting and the season progressing?

Bolte: Yeah, I mean I’ve tried not to focus too much on that and really just take it day to day and play. I feel like I’m probably in a similar situation as Muncy was last year: I’m probably not slated to make the team to start, but that’s how it is, not something that I was kind of expecting. I was coming out here to kind of play freely during the spring and just perform and get ready for my season. Because the goal in the long run is to get up (to) the big league team and help them win and be an impact player and be there for good. So just however I can be most prepared to do that is my main focus.

Nico: Well, and we know that the team has a starting right fielder who’s coming back from surgery, has a starting center fielder who’s had trouble staying on the field. So there’s always opportunities that present themselves unexpectedly. Defensively, I’d like to get a sense of how you see yourself as an outfielder comparing left field, center field, right field and what you feel like your strengths and weaknesses are right now.

Bolte: Um, I mean I grew up playing center field when I started playing outfield in high school. So I love playing center field, it was always my favorite. I’ve kind of split time between center and right professionally, so I’ve gotten really comfortable in right field. Comfortable in left field too — I feel good in all three spots, so that’s what’s good, is that I’ve gotten a good mix of all of them. And so, yeah, like you said, wherever there’s an opportunity, being ready in any of those three spots is great. And if the team needs someone in left, center or right, I want to be able to be the guy who can go in and fill that spot.

Nico: So between center and right, say, from which angle do you feel like you get the best reads, best jumps, are the most natural outfielder?

Bolte: I don’t know. I think center field everything’s in front of you. so you know side to side it’s you can get a good read on the ball. Right field comes with a lot of just time playing — you know the ball is going to fade on you a little bit more, there’s a lot of more spin from from right hand hitters which you can you just get used to and then you kind of know what to expect. So I don’t know if there’s one that is more natural. I think I’ve gotten used to both of them and it’s just they’re both different looks.

Nico: Last question would be — it’s really open-ended — if there was one thing you could say to fans who are watching you develop, rooting for the team, rooting for you, what would it be?

Bolte: You know, just that I want to come in and be an impact player and kind of this whole process with myself and the staff here has been preparing to win at the big league level and show up and be able to have success at the big league level and stay there.

I mean, I think that’s the main thing. You want to get up there and then stay and have an impact and help the team win. So I think when that time comes, I’ll be ready to go out there and play hard every night. Like we just said, it’s a thing of mine to compete every night and kind of put some pressure on the defense, take an extra 90 feet, run the base as well, and do something little every day to try and help the team win.

It’s looking like sooner rather than later for Bolte, who will start the season at AAA waiting for opportunity to knock…Hope you enjoyed the 5 interviews!

With the season looming and the parade of bad news from Spring Training (despite the Braves being 2026 Spring Training champions, heh), I wanted to throw this out there as a question that you, ultimately, will be scored and evaluated on. Chances are, you have strong opinions on this topic; here’s your chance to get something (or not) for your convictions.

The Braves currently project to have MLB’s tenth-most productive rotation. This is based on a lot of very good Chris Sale, three-fourths-of-the-season’s worth of above-average Spencer Strider, an effective Reynaldo Lopez that basically hangs around for four months, a good second-half-ish from Spencer Schwellenbach, among the other guys doing some stuff (Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep). That said, the tenor of pretty much all conversation regarding the Braves and their rotation is highly negative, more akin to “Will the rotation injuries cut off a comeback attempt before it even begins?” than anything else.

Of course, a rotation does not a team make. While no team can do this for a whole season, I’m reminded of the silliness of June 2023, where the Braves had something like the worst rotation production in MLB (second-worst FIP- ahead of only the Rockies), but went 21-4 because they just obliterated other teams even more soundly than their own Jared Shusters were getting wrecked. So, without mincing words too much, the following outcomes are possible:

A. The rotation is good

For purposes of discussion, let’s say “good” is tenth or better in MLB in fWAR when it’s all said and done. The variants here are:

• A1: The rotation is good, and the Braves make the playoffs.
• A2: The rotation is good, but the Braves miss the playoffs (probably due to offensive deficiency, but could also be due to weird one-run game stuff, or poor defense, or a disastrous bullpen).

Note that for this variant, and the ones below, health is automatically baked in to rotation quality, as more injuries will lead to the Braves plumbing the depth chart even further, and presumably getting less fWAR for their efforts when doing so.

B. The rotation is meh

Let’s say “meh” is somewhere between 11th and 20th in MLB in fWAR. Let’s also expand the variants a bit:

• B1: The rotation is meh, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential between the Braves’ rotation fWAR and the tenth-ranked team’s fWAR would have any implications for playoff rounds (i.e., the Braves would have a top-two record in the NL with added fWAR up to the tenth-best rotation).
• B2: The rotation is meh, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential noted above would not have any implications for playoff rounds.
• B3: The rotation is meh, the Braves miss the playoffs, but would’ve made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.
• B4: The rotation is meh, the Braves miss the playoffs, and would not have made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.

Which of course, leaves us with…

C. The rotation is bad

Same deal here as for the category above. “Bad” is, of course, what’s left: a bottom ten performance by fWAR.

• C1: The rotation is bad, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential between the Braves’ rotation fWAR and the tenth-ranked team’s fWAR would have any implications for playoff rounds (i.e., the Braves would have a top-two record in the NL with added fWAR up to the tenth-best rotation). This is the June 2023 option.
• C2: The rotation is bad, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential noted above would not have any implications for playoff rounds.
• C3: The rotation is bad, the Braves miss the playoffs, but would’ve made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.
• C4: The rotation is bad, the Braves miss the playoffs, and would not have made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.

Basically, I’m asking you to first pick your prognostication for the rotation (category/letter), and then select the implication of that prognostication, if any, for the standings at the end of the season (subcategory/number).

And, as all of these, let’s see some confidence attestations, too. Pair your selection of one of the ten variants above with a confidence number from 1 to 5, where 5 is “I am sure this will happen” and 1 is “I have no idea whatsoever what will happen but picked something to participate.” No partial confidences, a whole number that is 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 only.

Anyway, have at it. I’m curious to see where this ends up.

This is gonna be a long one. I decided to go ahead and basically write up the equivalent of Spark Notes to what each team did this offseason (including only the notable players lost or added), to what (in my opinion) is the biggest catalyst for that team’s success, and who (where applicable) the notable prospects are for each team that could crack the big leagues this year.

For what it’s worth, in the X-Factor sections, I tried not to choose the obvious players (i.e. Judge for the Yankees, Witt for the Royals, Jose for the Guardians, Ohtani for the Dodgers). For some teams, I did choose their best (at least offensively) player, but with a caveat. The order of the teams is not based on my predictions, but on their finish in the standings last year. Anyway, I hope you enjoy!

American League East

Toronto Blue Jays

Additions: Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers

Subtractions: Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt

X-Factor: Dylan Cease

Close Prospects: RHP Trey Yesavage

Yesavage, indeed, still technically retains prospect status. What catapaulted the Blue Jays to (and through) the postseason last year was their offense. Almost every hitter in their lineup had a career year, and they had one of the best offenses in MLB as a result. Their pitching was… not great. Yesavage and Bieber were crucial for them in the playoffs. Both are not on the Opening Day roster (Yesavage because of a combination of an injury and a whopping total of innings pitched, Bieber because of an injury). Anthony Santander is also on the IL to start the year. He tore his labrum in February, and will miss a significant chunk of the season. Despite this, I still think the Blue Jays are in a great position to re-capture ther AL East this season. Their offense, despite perhaps some inevitable regression, should still be elite. They added one of the most talented pitchers in MLB to their staff in Cease, and with the correct coaching, he is someone who very well could end the year in the Cy Young race. Okamoto projects to be both a great hitter and fielder, which is something they missed at third base last year. They are still one of the best teams in the American League.

New York Yankees

Additions: Ryan Weathers, Randal Grichuk

Subtractions: Devin Williams, Luke Weaver

X-Factor: Bullpen additions from last year’s trade deadline

Close Prospects: RHP Elmer Rodriguez, RHP Carlos Lagrange

The Yankees didn’t really do much externally this offseason. They re-signed Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Paul Goldschmidt, but seem largely content with running back their roster from last year. I’m not necessarily saying that’s a bad thing, just a surprising one given the activity of the other teams in their division. Ryan Weathers, despite surface level stats, projects to be a very good pitcher. Their rotation, if Gerrit Cole looks as good as he did in Spring Training, could very well be the best rotation in MLB. Fried, Cole, Schlittler, Rodon, Weathers, is an extremely formidable rotation with little to no weaknesses, assuming Yankees pitching coach (and former Guardians coach) Matt Blake can unlock Weathers’ potential. Rodon will be on the IL to start the season, along with Anthony Volpe, Gerrit Cole, and Clarke Schmidt (who will miss most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July). Schlittler looks to have tweaked his arsenal in the offseason, and projects to be one of the better young starters in the AL. But, the bullpen. It was downright awful last year, even more surprisingly so after the deadline. As a refresher, the Yankees went out and acquired David Bednar, Camilo Doval, and Jake Bird at last year’s deadline. Their bullpen was 26th in ERA after the deadline. That is the key to their success. Obviously, the lazy answer would be Judge. Which, I guess, is true. If he spontaneously turns into a lemon this season, that wouldn’t necessarily bode well for their World Series aspirations. But, I’m assuming that doesn’t happen. Their bullpen needs to be better, especially given the strength of their rotation. If the bullpen picks itself up, this pitching staff is most likely the best in baseball. Combine that with a lineup led by arguably the best hitter of the 21st century? Well, sounds like a championship roster to me.

Boston Red Sox

Additions: Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Caleb Durbin

Subtractions: Alex Bregman, Steven Matz

X-Factor: Roman Anthony

Close Prospects: 3B Marcelo Mayer, LHP Payton Tolle, LHP Connelly Early

The Red Sox were extremely active this offseason, going out and trading for Contreras, Gray, and Durbin and signing Ranger Suarez. With Suarez, he did have a relatively significant fastball velocity drop in his last start in Spring Training, which is almost certainly something to watch. One of the bigger concerns with him as a free agent was his declining fastball velocity. Alas, their rotation is good enough to overcome some regression from him. Their bullpen looks to be formidable again this year, even taking into account some natural regression from Aroldis Chapman. Their lineup is really good, and Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Caleb Durbin, and Ceddanne Rafaela are all Gold Glove-caliber fielders. But, this lineup’s ceiling is based on Roman Anthony. He is their best hitter, and will decide how far this team can go in October. If he looks as good as he did in his stint in MLB last year, the sky’s the limit for the Red Sox.

Tampa Bay Rays

Additions: Cedric Mullins, Gavin Lux, Steven Matz, Nick Martinez

Subtractions: Shane Baz, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe

X-Factor: Junior Caminero

Close Prospects: SS Carson Williams, RHP Brody Hopkins, 1B Xavier Isaac

I find it hard to see the Rays being successful this year. Even in a vaccuum, I just don’t see any facet of this team being good enough to compete. The lineup is fine, but shallow. The rotation is interesting, but mainly because it’s the Rays. By the way, Ryan Pepiot just landed on the IL. The bullpen, like the rotation, is interesting, but really only because it’s the Rays. They definitely have talented arms in both the rotation and bullpen, but I’m just not sure if either are deep enough for a 162-game season. Outside of this hypothetical vacuum, they play in the most competitive division in baseball, where all 4 teams got better than them this offseason. Don’t get me wrong, Junior Caminero is very, very good. But, he can only do so much. The Rays’ 1-3 against RHP is still very good (Diaz, Aranda, Caminero), but I just don’t think the rest of the lineup is good enough. But, they are the Rays, so they may shock us all and find a way to competitiveness.

Baltimore Orioles

Additions: Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Chris Bassitt, Shane Baz, Ryan Helsley

Subtractions: Grayson Rodriguez, Tomoyuki Sugano

X-Factor: Trevor Rogers

Close Prospects: C Samuel Basallo, RHP Trey Gibson

The Orioles were definitely one of the more interesting teams to watch going into this offseason, and then they added Pete Alonso. Despite having a very, very poor 2025 campaign (which led to the firing of their manager), I think the Orioles are poised to compete once again in this division. Their pitching is really the limit. Because of how insane this division is, I’m not sure if I see them finishing higher than 3rd. Trevor Rogers was really good last year, but not for a full season. If he can maintain his performance from 2025, that would go a long way in helping the Orioles surpass expectations. They traded for SP Shane Baz from the Rays, and signed Chris Bassitt to bolster their rotation. Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin round out a solid rotation, but I’m not sure, at least on paper, if it’s better than any the Blue Jays, Yankees, or Red Sox rotations. Their offense, on paper, is almost assuredly as good as anyone’s. Gunnar Henderson looks poised to bounceback to his former MVP-candidate form, and if that happens, this could be an electric offense to watch. Samuel Basallo has looked fantastic in Spring Training, and is coming off signing a long extension with the team. Their bullpen is a little iffy, especially considering their all-world closer Felix Bautista will miss some of the season, but as long as it’s not meaningfully worse than last season’s, it should be fine. I do think they’ll be active at the deadline in acquiring relievers.

Overall, the AL East once again looks to be the most formidable division in baseball, and very well could see three of its teams reach the postseason again.

American League Central

Cleveland Guardians

Additions: Rhys Hoskins, Shawn Armstrong

Subtractions: Lane Thomas

X-Factor: Steven Kwan

Close Prospects: OF Chase DeLauter, RHP Khal Stephen, 2B Travis Bazzana, LHP Parker Messick

I’m going to keep this write-up brief since I know all of you know what the Guardians did this offseason. Jose Ramirez is still one of the best players in baseball. They have a multitude of exciting young players either coming up this season, or looking to continue off an exciting rookie campaign in 2025. Parker Messick, Slade Cecconi, Kyle Manzardo, George Valera, Joey Cantillo. Chase DeLauter has (officially) made the Opening Day roster, and looks to immediately jumpstart what was a, to put it nicely, lackluster offense last year. While Valera will start the year on the IL, the Guardians look to have just enough depth to withstand missing his offensive presence for a little. I really think the ceiling of this team (outside of Jose) comes down to whether Steven Kwan can re-capture his 2024 form. He needs to be an elite table-setter, and needs to be able to play at least an average centerfield. Even outside of what that means to the team, if he can post an OPS around .800 and play a good centerfield, he very well could fetch the Guardians a haul at the deadline. Recent reporting seems to show that the Guardians have not approached Kwan’s team with any serious contract extension outline, and given the Guardians’ track record, Kwan looks to almost inevitably be dealt at the deadline. If he plays well, he’s gone. Depressing to write, but probably true. This team is much better than it was last year, and its Opening Day roster could very well be as good as it’s ever been since 2017. In what again looks to be a wide open division, I wouldn’t count the Guardians out.

Detroit Tigers

Additions: Framber Valdez, Kenley Jansen, Justin Verlander

Subtractions: Chris Paddack

X-Factor: Kevin McGonigle

Close Prospects: SS Kevin McGonigle, OF Max Clark

The Tigers would’ve run away with the division last year had they not suffered one of the most embarrassing collapses in MLB history. They completely fell apart in the second half of the season after lighting the league on fire in the first half. In what is most likely the last full year (or, just as likely, half-year) of Tarik Skubal, the Tigers had an interesting offseason. They went out and signed arguably the best starting pitcher on the market which, if you ask me, all but sounds the death knell for any hopes Tigers fans may have for a Skubal extension. So much of the Tigers’ season rests on how good they can be leading up to the trade deadline. If they are hovering around .500, I could very well see their front office dealing Skubal. They have one of the best farm systems in MLB, and could make it even better. Skubal will be Skubal, if healthy, there’s no debate there. He’s the best pitcher in the American League, and arguably the best pitcher in MLB. The Tigers’ fortunes boil down to how good their offense can be. They made no external additions to the offense, only re-signing Gleyber Torres. But, they’re adding one of the best (if not the best) prospects in baseball to their lineup. If McGonigle is as good as advertised, there is no limit for this Tigers roster. If the Tigers are atop the division at the trade deadline, I highly doubt the Tigers move Skubal. That’s why he’s my X-Factor. Riley Greene is a great hitter, but, at least at present, not good enough to carry this team to a World Series. If McGonigle is as advertised, he can almost certainly do that. A lot of pressure to put on a rookie. Their pitching staff will be better than it was last year — adding Framber Valdez tends to have that effect. This team has the talent to make a run, we’ll see if they do. For a more in-depth look into the Tigers, please read CTC’s own Matt Seese’s article on them here.

Kansas City Royals

Additions: Matt Strahm, Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas

Subtractions: Mike Yaztrezemski, Michael Lorenzen

X-Factor: The other, non-Bobby Witt, 8 hitters in their lineup

Close Prospects: C Carter Jensen

Yes, it is obvious that their offense is the limit to what this team can do. But there really isn’t much else to say. Bobby Witt is the best shortstop in the world, and could very well win MVP this year. Their offense was bad last year. It needs to be better. Their pitching is still very, very good. The offense is the limit. If Maikel Garcia maintains his 2025 form, if Caglianone can make it click, if Carter Jensen is as good as advertised, and if Isaac Collins can maintain some degree of his 2025 self, this team is good. A lot of ifs, I know. Their rotation looks to be very good again, bolstered by (in my opinion) one of the best left-handed starters in baseball in Cole Ragans. Seth Lugo is a question mark, but Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, and Michael Wacha all project to be above-average starters this year. Their bullpen is, well, not great. Their backend depth is good, but nothing else is. Estevez looks to have taken a step back. (To read more about the Royals, feel free to read my own article on them here.) But, this team looks to be competitive this year. Like with the Guardians: in this division, anything can happen.

Minnesota Twins

Additions: Josh Bell, Victor Caratini

Subtractions: Edouard Julien, Christian Vazquez

X-Factor: A healthy Byron Buxton

Close Prospects: OF Walker Jenkins, OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, LHP Connor Prielipp

I don’t see it with this team, to be honest with you. But, like I’ve already said, this division is weird. Anything could happen. The Twins have been one of the more interesting teams to watch over the last 12 months, as they spontaneously tore their entire roster down at last year’s deadline. Pablo Lopez will miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. But, deadline additions SP Mick Abel and Taj Bradley could very well bolster the rotation in Lopez’s place. This team is weird. I could see them winning anywhere between 60 and 84 games. Like every American League Central team, the Twins’ fortunes rest on a whole lot of ‘ifs’. If Buxton can stay healthy and maintain his MVP-level play from 2025, if Rodriguez, Keaschall, Abel, and Bradley can all be significant contributors, then this team could be good. I think its more likely they finish in last than make the playoffs, but anything is possible in the AL Central.

Chicago White Sox

Additions: Munetaki Murakami, Austin Hays, Luisangel Acuna, Seranthony Dominguez

Subtractions: Luis Robert Jr., Mike Tauchman

X-Factor: Colson Montgomery

Close Prospects: LHP Noah Schultz

The White Sox seem to be out of the proverbial woods. After a short but excruciating rebuild, they have a roster teeming with exciting young talent. I don’t think this team is a playoff team yet, but they will be soon. They could maybe be a fringe Wild Card contender this season if things click, but there’s too many ifs for me to comfortably project them to be that. Murakami is a question mark, but if he works out this lineup will be very deep. Catcher Kyle Teel will miss the start of the season with a shoulder injury sustained from the World Baseball Classic. However, the rotation, frankly, isn’t very good, and neither is the bullpen. Shane Smith is fine, but there really isn’t anything else to hang your hat on for five-six innings in a given night as Anthony Kay, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and Erick Fedde are an underwhelming group of pitchers. The bullpen, if Grant Taylor clicks, could be fine, at least at the back. They added Seranthony Dominguez there, as well. I just don’t think this pitching staff has either the depth nor the top-end talent to make it formidable enough to compete. For more, please read CTC’s Deborah Williams’ preview on the White Sox here.

American League West

Seattle Mariners

Additions: Brendan Donovan

Subtractions: Jorge Polanco, Eugenio Suarez

X-Factor: George Kirby

Close Prospects: SS Colt Emerson

It’s hard to not envision this team repeating as American League West champions in 2026. While they didn’t do much on balance this offseason, no one else in the division really did either. They’re still by far the most talented team in the division, and even if Cal Raleigh doesn’t hit 60 homers again in 2026, they should still — comfortably — win the division. Their offense is good 1-7, and their rotation is good, albeit a little lacking in depth (Bryce Miller will miss the start of the season with an injury from Spring Training). Their most exciting pitching prospects are still in A-ball, and outside of them there really aren’t any guys to get excited about in the upper minors. Because of that, the success of this team really comes down to how healthy their rotation can be. George Kirby is my X-Factor for them. If Kirby is as good as he was in 2024, this team could very easily win it all. The bullpen is still good, as Matt Brash and Andres Munoz are as good of a setup-closer duo as exists in MLB. There’s really not much else to say. This team is really good.

Houston Astros

Additions: Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows

Subtractions: Framber Valdez, Jesus Sanchez, Vic Caratini

X-Factor: A healthy Yordan Alvarez

Close Prospects: N/A

The Astros are weird. Hunter Brown is good, Tatsuya Imai could be good, Mike Burrows could be good, but other than that, nothing to write home about. Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. (?) are neither exciting or good. We’ll see how that rotation shapes out. The bullpen is still really good with Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, and Steven Okert leading the way. Josh Hader will, however, miss the start of the season with bicep inflammation. The offense will, with a healthy Yordan, be really good next year, despite Jeremy Pena missing the start of the season on the IL. If Correa bounces back, this offense could be good enough to offset the woes of the rotation. Altuve, Paredes, Alvarez, Correa, Pena is a really good 1-5, and if Walker bounces back, could be one of the deeper lineups in the American League. I don’t think they can win the division (barring some epic collapse or implosion from the Mariners), but they could perhaps make the last Wild Card spot.

Texas Rangers

Additions: Brandon Nimmo, MacKenzie Gore

Subtractions: Merrill Kelly, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia

X-Factor: Healthy Corey Seager

Close Prospects: N/A

The Rangers have one of the loftier ceilings, especially compared to the depths of their floor, in the American League. All of their outcomes come down to how healthy this team can stay. Seager, Langford, Carter, Eovaldi, and DeGrom all have to stay healthy for this team to be good. MacKenzie Gore needs to figure out his 2nd half struggles, and Jack Leiter needs to have a bounceback this season. The bullpen is bad, but like all bullpens, it can relatively easily be fixed at the deadline if necessary. Like I said, high ceiling, low floor. If Langford and Carter reach their prospect status, then this offense could be really good.

Athletics

Additions: Jeff McNeil, Aaron Civale

Subtractions: Sean Newcomb

X-Factor: Pitching

Close Prospects: OF Henry Bolte, RHP Mason Barnett

The Athletics will inevitably be one of the best offenses in MLB, again, this season. Their lineup is loaded. Kurtz, Langeliers, Soderestrom, Rooker, Wilson, Butler, is an insane amalgamation of hitting talent to be on one roster. My problem with them is twofold: their pitching, and the ballpark they play in. Their pitching will probably be bad again, but it certainly doesn’t help that they play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball (though that almost certainly helps their offense as well). I can’t really see this team making the playoffs until they 1) get real starters in their rotation and 2) move to a real ballpark. The ballpark effects them far more than in just the on-field way. It’s hard to attract free agent pitchers when your pitching conditions are understood to be as dangerous as they are. Oh, also, their bullpen is, on paper, horrible. The pitching is the X-Factor for this team, but unless they take some miraculous leap, I can’t see this team making the playoffs.

Los Angeles Angels

Additions: Grayson Rodriguez, Josh Lowe

Subtractions: Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo

X-Factor: Development

Close Prospects: RHP Ryan Johnson, RHP George Klassen

So, the Angels. Their problem this year is the same as it’s been for the last 10 years, and the same problem it’ll be for the next 10 years if there isn’t significant change at the upper echelons of their front office: The Angels cannot sustainably develop players. They’ve basically wasted the entirety of a first ballot Hall of Famer’s career, and tried to waste the entirety of another one’s. Despite some development success with Zach Neto, they’ve largely failed to consistently churn out productive MLB players on either side of the ball. They’re known for rushing prospects long before they’re ready, which you’ll see this year with Ryan Johnson. There isn’t much else to say about them until owner Arte Moreno sells.

National League East

Philadelphia Phillies

Additions: Adolis Garcia, Brad Keller

Subtractions: Ranger Suarez, Harrison Bader, Matt Strahm

X-Factor: Bullpen

Close Prospects: OF Justin Crawford, RHP Andrew Painter, SS Aidan Miller

The Phillies are polarizing, and I’m definitely lower on them then most people. Their core pieces (Wheeler, Harper, Schwarber, and Turner) are all on the wrong side of 30. I think that their window of legitimate World Series contention has, at best, one or two years left. Harper is showing signs of regressing, and Wheeler just had a major injury that sidelined him for the entirety of their playoff run last year. Cristopher Sanchez is great, however, and they just extended him. I just don’t see how this team gets better as their core offensive pieces get older. Regardless, their rotation looks to again be among the best in the league when Wheeler returns. Sanchez, Luzardo, and Painter all project to be great frontline starters. Nola and Taijuan Walker are concerning, but one (probably Walker) will go when Wheeler returns. Their bullpen is fine, and I can’t imagine it being worse than it was the last two years. Duran is a fantastic closer, and Keller (assuming they keep him as a reliever) should be great again. Alvarado hopefully doesn’t miss a major portion of the season this year, which will definitely help their bullpen’s fortunes. I have some concerns about the backend, but that’s relatively easily fixed. I don’t necessarily think this team wins the division this year, but they’ll be competitive. And, in a relatively weak National League (outside of the Dodgers), could very easily make the playoffs again.

New York Mets

Additions: Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Luis Robert Jr., Marcus Semien, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver

Subtractions: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz

X-Factor: Nolan McLean

Close Prospects: RHP Nolan McLean, OF Carson Benge, RHP Jonah Tong, UTIL Ryan Clifford

The Mets perhaps had the most turnover between last and this season among major contributors, as you can see. It’s interesting to see, as they were certainly good on paper last year, but collapsed in the second half. Barring a repeat of that, the Mets should relatively comfortably win the National League East. The X-Factor, for them, is McLean. If he is as advertised — that is, as an ace — then this team is as good as any. Their rotation was really bad last year, and I can’t imagine it being worse. Peralta, McLean, Holmes, Senga, and Peterson is a fantastic Opening Day rotation, and Jonah Tong offers great depth. Their bullpen is a little iffy, again, but it’s hard to actually view how their bullpen really was last year simply because of how much they had to pitch (3rd most in MLB, 2nd in NL). Devin Williams is an enigma because of what happened to him last year, but I assume he bounces back. Luke Weaver I’m not as high on, but he should still be an average middle-relief contributor. Their offense, though, is a wagon – No question about it. Lindor, Soto, Bichette is a fantastic top 3. If the cards fall their way, the Mets could have one of the 3 best offenses in MLB. Perhaps a change of scenery could finally cause Luis Robert Jr. to return to prior form. This team has an extraordinarily high ceiling, and should win the division.

Miami Marlins

Additions: Pete Fairbanks, Owen Caissie, Chris Paddack

Subtractions: Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers

X-Factor: Sandy Alcantara

Close Prospects: C Joe Mack, 1B Nathan Martorella, LHP Thomas White.

The Marlins are perhaps the best example of what can happen for a franchise when a legitimately amazing front office executive takes the reigns. In merely 3 years, former CTC site user Peter Bendix has turned around the entire Marlins research & development front. He’s gotten ownership to buy in on investments in international training facilities, as well as their own internall spring training & rehab facilities. While the pieces haven’t all fallen into place yet, I can imagine the Marlins are not far away from being perennial contenders in their division. If you couldn’t tell, I’m a big fan of Bendix’s. To the team: I’m not sold on them making the playoffs this year. Trading away a standout starter in Edward Cabrera and a breakout candidate in Ryan Weathers was definitely interesting given their rotation’s weaknesses last year. But, they’ll get a full year of Eury Perez, and with bouncebacks from Max Meyer and Sandy Alcantara, their rotation could very well be good this year. Oh, they also have one of the best pitching prospects in baseball in Thomas White lurking in AAA. He projects to be a legitimate ace, and his contributions to this rotation should ensure that it’s better than last year’s iteration. To Sandy. With Alcantara, a bounceback season from him is crucial to the Marlins’ long-term plans. He’s on the last year of his contract, with a 2027 club option after. Him pitching well would mean the Marlins could finally get the return for him they were hoping for last year. The bullpen is iffy, especially now with breakout reliever Ronny Henriquez missing the entire year with Tommy John surgery. But, a backend of Fairbanks and Calvin Faucher should be good enough for a rebuilding team. If everything falls into place, they could be a sneaky Wild Card candidate, but I’m not yet sold on their pitching. With their offense, there are too many question marks to comfortably project it, but, theoretically, it should be around average. Xavier Edwards, Jakob Marsee, Agustin Ramirez, and Owen Caissie should all be major contributors this year, and All-Star Kyle Stowers when he returns from injury.. I’m not sure if they’re there yet, but the Marlins should start to turn the corner this season.

Atlanta Braves

Additions: Ha-Seong Kim, Mike Yastrzemski, Robert Suarez

Subtractions: Marcell Ozuna, Jurickson Profar (due to PEDs)

X-Factor: Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez

Close Prospects: RHP Didier Fuentes, RHP J.R. Ritchie

The Braves lineup should be much better than last year’s, barring injury. So much so that I would’ve considered them among the best teams in baseball. However, multiple injuries sidelining core pieces in their rotation (Strider, Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver, Wentz), and a complete lack of urgency from their front office to address this rotation (even prior to Strider & Schwellenbach’s injuries) has led their rotation to being in a pretty bad spot. They’re relying on consistency from Chris Sale, who notoriously hasn’t been able to stay healthy since the Red Sox World Series in 2018, and Reynaldo Lopez, who will be in his second year as a starter and coming off Tommy John surgery. Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder are fine, but not in the middle of your rotation. Didier Fuentes (who made the Opening Day roster), is starting in the Braves’ bullpen, with what I assume will inevitably be a temporary move. On the offensive side, they just lost Jurickson Profar to a PED suspension, and Sean Murphy will miss the start of the year with a hip injury. If their core pieces on offense stay healthy (Acuna, Baldwin, Olson, Riley), this offense could legitimately be among the best in MLB, but I’m just not sure that it’ll matter with the weaknesses in their pitching staff. Relying on 37 year old Chris Sale to carry your rotation throughout the season is, well, bad. Signing Robert Suarez to fortify the back of your bullpen because of a declining Raisel Iglesias, was a fine move. The problem is that their rotation isn’t good enough to really compete this year. I understand that foreseeing injuries to TWO core starters and a backend depth option in Spring Training is hard, but you already knew Smith-Shawver would miss the first few months of the year, and the Braves did nothing to address their lack of starting pitching depth. This team could be good if they get their injured pitchers back early enough to make a difference, I’m just not willing to bet on them both coming back early and performing well immediately. The Braves have an extremely small margin for error if they want to compete this year, and that issue falls squarely at the feet of their front office.

Washington Nationals

Additions: Foster Griffin, Zack Littell, Harry Ford

Subtractions: MacKenzie Gore, Josh Bell

X-Factor: Paul Toboni

Close Prospects: N/A

The Nationals. It’s hard to understate just how badly the post-2019 Rizzo tenure was for the Nationals. Rizzo, if you didn’t know, was the Nationals POBO until midseason last year. While he made out well in the Soto trade (Wood, Abrams, maybe Gore), he butchered the Trea Turner and Max Scherzer trade, and botched the development of top draft pick Dylan Crews. The Nationals’ future is really hard to project because of how badly Rizzo messed with their farm system, so I have their X-Factor as their new POBO, Paul Toboni. If he can fix the issues with Dylan Crews, and revamp their farm system, they could be good in the future. For now, they will not be competitive, and will be among the league’s worst teams this year. Their rotation is bad, and their bullpen will inevitably be one of the worst in MLB this year. Their pitching staff at-large could easily rank in the bottom 3 at the end of the season. The lineup is not great, but James Wood and CJ Abrams are bright spots. I assume Abrams will be traded at this year’s deadline, but I can’t say for sure. Wood could be a bonafide superstar, but he’ll have to sustain his success last year in the first half over a full season. (For reference, he had a 150 wRC+ in the 1st half, and a 93 in the 2nd)

National League Central

Milwaukee Brewers

Additions: Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Luis Rengifo

Subtractions: Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin, Isaac Collins

X-Factor: The rotation

Close Prospects: RHP Brandon Sproat, INF/OF Jett Williams, C Jeferson Quero

At the end of almost every season, it seems we all ask ourselves, “How did the Brewers do it this time?”. (Sound familiar, Guardians’ fans?). I assume we’ll be asking that exact same question in September of 2026. I’m not high on the Brewers, but I also understand that they manage to do things that I simply cannot understand. Similar to the Guardians in that respect. Dealing Freddy Peralta was understandable, especially as a fan of a small market team, but they didn’t really do anything to address their rotation outside of that. As of now, per Fangraphs, their rotation is as follows: Misiorowski, Chad Patrick, Brandon Sproat, Kyle Harrison, Brandon Woodruff. I have no idea how that rotation will find a way to be successful, but I’m almost certain it will. If the Brewers figure out their rotation, you can pretty comfortably slot them in atop the National League Central come October 1. Their offense is still really good, with Chourio, Turang, Contreras, and Yelich at the top of their order. The rest is iffy, but, like I keep saying, it’s the Brewers. They’ll find a way, they always seem to find a way.

Chicago Cubs

Additions: Alex Bregman, Edward Cabrera, Hunter Harvey

Subtractions: Kyle Tucker, Aaron Civale, Willi Castro

X-Factor: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Close Prospects: OF Kevin Alcantara, C Moises Ballesteros, RHP Jaxon Wiggins

The Cubs rode a pair of breakouts all the way to the postseason (for the first time in 5 years) last year, and seem poised to make it back to October this year. They fortified their rotation through the addition of Edward Cabrera, and hope a full season of Cade Horton can look as good as what they saw from Horton last year. The depth is a little shaky, but getting Justin Steele back around midseason should help. They also have decent depth at AAA, headlined by top Cubs prospect Jaxon Wiggins. The offense, despite losing Tucker, should still be great this year. Busch, Bregman, Happ, Hoerner is a pretty good top 4, and if PCA can take another leap on offense (which would make him an MVP candidate), then this team will be very good. They play great defense, and they destroy the cover off the baseball. My main concern is the bullpen, but if the breakout they got from Daniel Palencia (World Baseball Classic hero for champion Venezuela) last year is real, then it should be fine. They, like the Royals, are a prime candidate to buy big on relievers at the deadline.

Cincinnati Reds

Additions: Eugenio Suarez

Subtractions: Nick Martinez, Gavin Lux, Zack Littell, Miguel Andujar

X-Factor: Ke’Bryan Hayes

Close Prospects: INF Sal Stewart, RHP Rhett Lowder

In the rotatation for an enigmatic Reds’ team, I’m not sold on Brady Singer, but I think Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Chase Burns should be enough. Unfortunately, Hunter Greene is out til, at least, midseason with bone spurs. Nick Lodolo got hurt over the weekend, and will start the year on the IL. Their bullpen is fine, and the backend is good. Tony Santillan and Emilio Pagan (despite what the Guardians have done to him in the past) are good pitchers. Their offense should be around average this year with the additions of Stewart and Suarez to their lineup. So, let me explain my X-Factor. Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a good hitter, consistently, once over close to a full season. He’s one of, if not the, best defenders at 3rd in MLB. If he can finally have a decent offensive showing, that makes this Reds team look entirely different. Their pitching is good enough to get them close to the postseason, but not on its own. The offense has to be better than it was last year for them to make it back, which I think it will.

St. Louis Cardinals

Additions: Dustin May, Ramon Urias

Subtractions: Sonny Gray, Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado

X-Factor: JJ Wetherholt

Close Prospects: SS JJ Wetherholt

The Cardinals are, well, not good. They are not going to be good next year. Their rotation isn’t great, and while their bullpen is fine, it’s not nearly good enough to carry the pitching staff. Not to mention their offense isn’t very good either. Hard to lose 2 major contributors on offense in Donovan and Contreras while losing arguably your best defender in Arenado. But, if Wetherholt breaks out, I could see a world in which the offense is competitive enough to bring this team to the mid-70s in wins. Masyn Winn is still an electric player to watch, but the failure of former top prospect Jordan Walker has hurt the Cardinals current roster. They still have one of the best farm systems in baseball, but that won’t show at the Major League level for another couple of years.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Additions: Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna

Subtractions: Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Andrew McCutchen

X-Factor: Offseason additions

Close Prospects: SS Konnor Griffin, RHP Bubba Chandler

Perhaps the most exciting team to watch this offseason was the Pirates – a shocking thing to say. In addition to their myriad of moves this offseason, they also sport two of the best prospects in baseball on either side of the baseball. Konnor Griffin is, by most accounts, the best prospect in the sport, and Bubba Chandler is arguably one of the 5 best pitching prospects. It is indeed admirable how aggressive the Pirates were this offseason, trying to capitalize on their window while Paul Skenes is still cheap and under team control. Their bullpen is a little shaky, but Dennis Santana is among the league’s best closers. The Pirates have gotten surprisingly good at pitching development, so we’ll see if they can figure out the bullpen. Any rotation with Paul Skenes at the top is a good rotation, but this one features multiple good pitchers. Mlodzinski is good, Ashcraft is good, and Bubba Chandler could well finish in the top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting if all goes well. Unfortunately, Jared Jones is on the IL to start the season, but should be back at some point midseason. The Pirates are well-poised to break their decade-long postseason drought.

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Additions: Kyle Tucker, Edwin Diaz

Subtractions: Kirby Yates

X-Factor: Tanner Scott

Close Prospects: OF Josue DePaula, OF Zyhir Hope, INF Alex Freeland

Yes, obviously the Dodgers’ actual X-Factor is Shohei Ohtani. If he pitches well, and keeps being one of the best hitters in baseball, this roster is the best. You could argue that even without Ohtani hitting, or without Ohtani pitching, that this team is still the best in baseball. But that’s boring. So, I went with Tanner Scott. He was awful last year. The Dodgers tried to tweak his approach to get him to throw more strikes, and it backfired horribly. He was a big part of the reason that their bullpen was so bad all year long. Adding Edwin Diaz should help with that – a lot. Their rotation will once again be among the best in the league, despite Roki Sasaki’s best efforts. Inevitably, Tyler Glasnow will miss some time. But, when you get a full season of Ohtani pitching, along with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell (who is currently on the IL, and projected to be back around June), you get a great rotation. The only thing that could hold this team back is the continued age regression of Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez. Mookie Betts’ season was concerning, but he lost a lot of weight from a sickness around the start of last season, so, for now, I’m not that worried about him. This roster is, top to bottom, the best in baseball. Not much else to say. It’d be a disappointment, barring injury, for the Dodgers not to make it back to the World Series… at least for Dodgers fans.

San Diego Padres

Additions: Sung-Mun Song, Miguel Andujar, Griffin Canning

Subtractions: Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Ryan O’Hearn, Robert Suarez

X-Factor: Nick Pivetta and Michael King

Close Prospects: N/A

The Padres are in a conundrum. Their GM just traded their top prospect for Mason Miller, but let multiple key pieces to their success walk. Their offense should be good this year, but their rotation is bad. Outside of Pivetta and King, there aren’t any even average pitchers. Their bullpen will inevitably end up as one of the best in the league, but their rotation just isn’t that good. They need Pivetta to stay as good as he was last year, and for King to regain his 2024 form. If even one of those things doesn’t happen, I can’t see this team making the playoffs. The Padres’ front office is the most aggressive in baseball, so anything’s possible, I just don’t see it right now.

San Francisco Giants

Additions: Luis Arraez, Harrison Bader, Tyler Mahle

Subtractions: Justin Verlander

X-Factor: 2025 additions (Rafael Devers and Willy Adames)

Close Prospects: 1B Bryce Eldrige, LHP Carson Whisenhunt

The Giants, barring some collapse, should make the postseason this year. Hard to envision a world in which both Devers and Adames don’t bounce back after relatively disappointing 2025 campaigns. Their offense ranked 22nd in OPS last year, and I can’t see that happening again. Their rotation was also bad, ranking 17th in ERA. Logan Webb is still amazing, and Mahle should be a good contributor. Robbie Ray and Adrian Houser are question marks. The bullpen isn’t that good, at least on paper, but their offense and top-end starting pitching should be enough to bring them to the postseason, if not very close.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Additions: Merrill Kelly, Nolan Arenado

Subtractions: Jake McCarthy

X-Factor: Pitching

Close Prospects: OF Ryan Waldschmidt, 2B/OF Tommy Troy

The Diamondbacks, last year, ranked top 5 in OPS and 22nd in ERA. They also have overseen quite a bit of turnover between the trade deadline and free agency. They’ve changed almost top-to-bottom the names on their pitching coaching staff. Their offense should again be good, although probably not as good as it was last year. Replacing Josh Naylor with Carlos Santana (Deja Vu, anyone?) and Eugenio Suarez with Nolan Arenado is probably not a great recipe for success. But, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo are all still great hitters. Any success they may have this year will be defined by their pitching. Their rotation, right now, projects to be one of the worst in the league. Their bullpen, which currently features Paul Sewald as closer, with no left-handed pitchers, also projects to be one of the worst. They’ll maybe get Corbin Burnes back at some point, but it’d probably be closer to late August/early September. This team probably isn’t going to make the playoffs, but they’ll be fun bad. Good offense, bad pitching – silver linings for Diamondbacks fans.

Colorado Rockies

Additions: Jose Quintana, Willi Castro, Michael Lorenzen, Jake McCarthy

Subtractions: German Marquez

X-Factor: Paul DePodesta

Close Prospects: N/A

The Rockies. This is going to be short, because there isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said about them. Their front office has, historically, been among the worst in baseball, and consistently is found to be years behind every even average front office in research & development. So, naturally, you hire Paul DePodesta, who hasn’t worked in baseball in a decade. Maybe it works, but his rumored dependence on sabermetrics doesn’t seem like it’ll bold well with an owner who infamously abhors advanced statistics. Maybe DePodesta will be the one to figure out the ‘Rockies problem’, regardless, he holds the keys to whatever happens in the Rockies’ future. They don’t have that great of a farm system, and they have one of the worst rosters in MLB. They also happen to play in the hardest park to pitch in in MLB.

What do you think – which of these teams have I overrated? Underrated? Overlooked? Let me know in the comments below.