Category: MLB

After covering 32 prospects last week, we’re back to do the top 8. Today, four pitchers in the upper minors with different ceilings and 2026 outlooks.

8. Fernando Perez, RHP, age 22 (DOB: 2/12/2004), grade: 40+, 2025: 10th

Signed out of the Domincan Republic in 2022, Perez was a steady one-level-a-year guy until 2025, when he outclassed the Northwest League (3.05 ERA, 81:19 K:BB ratio over 20 starts and 94 innings) and forced his way up to AA New Hampshire as a 21 year old

Perez is a hard player to rank. He sits 92-93 and touches 95 with his fastball without exceptional movement, neither of his breaking balls are MLB average, and while his change-up will flash it’s not a plus pitch. However, his easy, almost casual looking high three quarters delivery generates exceptional, maybe 70 grade command. He can put any of his four offerings anywhere he wants with regularity.

As a result of his excellent placement, he doesn’t issue walks (5.6% for his career) and doesn’t give hitters anything over the heart of the plat to work with (0.52 HR/9 in 2025 and similar in previous years). He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he does everything else about as well as you can.

There’s a risk that Perez’ approach simply runs out of road, and that MLB-calibre hitters can square his ho-hum stuff up even when it’s on the black. Without a true out pitch, there’s also something of a cap on his upside. The best hope is that they Jays’ strength and conditioning staff, which I’ve seen multiple outlets describe as among the best in the game right now, are able to get a little more out of his 6’3” frame. He doesn’t look gangly or physically immature the way players who are about to add a bunch of strength usually do, but he is young and he isn’t a small guy, so it’s certainly possible. In the dream scenario, extra muscle gets him up into the mid-90s more consistently while adding bite to his breaking balls, in which case he could be a #2/3 starter. A mid-level outcome is a #5 starter who’s vulnerable to good hitting but who can limit base runners enough to churn through innings, while the downside is that he just isn’t able to get outs against MLB hitters and stalls out in AAA.

7. Adam Macko, LHP, age 22 (DOB: 12/20/2000), grade: 45, 2025: 8th

Every year there’s a guy I don’t think I’m going to have all that high in my rankings who, once I sit down and put together the probabilities that we use to underpin the expected value scores, just has to be up there. This year it’s Macko. He didn’t perform great in Buffalo’s rotation last season, but he held batters to a 73% contact rate overall and just under 82% inside the zone, both of which are solidly above average and represent steps forward over his superficially more impressive 2024.

Macko grew up in Slovakia, a noted baseball hotbed, and learned to pitch from watching YouTube. He moved to Canada and was drafted by the Mariners in the 7th round of the 2019 draft out of the noted baseball hotbed (but mostly not sarcastic this time) of Vauxhall High School in Alberta. He worked his way up to A+ in the Seattle organization before coming to Toronto in the Teoscar Hernandez deal. From there he’s gone one level at a time, establishing himself in Buffalo in 2025. He’s been maddeningly inconsistent, dealing with both actual injuries and fluctuations in his stuff and command. On the right day, he’ll spot 94-96 with a crisp slider and promising change, while on the wrong day he’ll be missing the zone entirely and sitting 91 with shaky secondaries. Things seemed to click a bit in the second half last year after a demotion to a long relief role. He sat closer to the top of his velocity range in three inning appearances and allowed just a 64% contact rate, generating 29 Ks and 61 swinging strikes in 26.0 innings while keeping his walks (6) under control.

I think that’s Macko’s most likely role going forward: a high quality multi-inning reliever who can make the occasional 5 and dive spot start. If that brings out the good version of him, the one with three 55 grade pitches that he can locate, more often, he could be an actual weapon on a good team. There’s still some hope that he finds a way to harness that quality in the rotation, in which case there could be a #3 starter in there, but that would take achieving a consistency that we haven’t yet seen from him.

6. Jake Bloss, RHP, age 24 (DOB: 6/23/2001), grade: 45, 2025: 7th

Bloss was a third round pick by out of Georgetown by the Astros in 2023. He was rushed all the way up to the majors in 2024 as they dealt with a spate of rotation injuries, before ultimately headlining the return Toronto got for sending Yusei Kikuchi to Texas. He struggled in Buffalo after the trade, and also looked shaky in early 2025 before ultimately going down for Tommy John surgery in May.

Bloss takes a big, powerful stride down the mound and gets plus extension. That allows his four seam fastball, which sits 92-95 and touches 98, to play as a close to plus pitch in spite of average velocity and movement. He has two breaking balls, a sweepy slider that also looks to be above average and a big two-plane curve that’s good for stealing called strikes. There was some indication that he was working on redeveloping his change-up last year, going to a split grip and throwing it significantly more often. It’s a potential average pitch right now. Bloss struggled to find the plate last season, but that was likely a reflection of his injury and he generally displays average command. It’s a solid, well rounded arsenal without a standout weapon but with good depth and variety.

We’re basically punting on Bloss this year. We’re willing to write off his rough start last season to the developing elbow injury, and since the return rate is so high for TJ these days we we don’t meaningfully ding his future value at this point. The risk has gone up slightly, but it’s still the look of an MLB-ready #4 starter.

5. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, age 23 (DOB: 8/18/2002), grade: 45+, 2025: 6th

Another year, another hope that Ricky Tiedemann finally gets healthy. The Jays’ 2021 third round pick out of Golden West College in California exploded onto the scene in post-draft workouts, showcasing a massive jump in velocity and a nasty arsenal that by the end of 2022 had vaulted him to AA and to a place among the top pitching prospects in the game. Then the elbow injury bug bit. He missed two and a half months out of the middle of the 2023 season and battled multiple issues in 2024 before giving in and getting surgery. He’s been back this spring, although the Jays are being ultra-cautious and shut him down for two weeks in early March after some elbow soreness.

When he’s healthy, Tiedemann might have the nastiest stuff of any lefty in the minor leagues. His fastball sits 94-96 and touches 98 with massive arm side run. Tiedemann pitches from the extreme first base side of the rubber and has a low and long arm action, meaning the ball comes out way on the left side of the plate. For lefties it feels like the ball is coming from behind their backs, while for righties the fastball seems aimed at their chests until that big run pulls it back into the zone. He pairs the heater with a slider that has big frisbee break the other way, eating lefties alive while stealing strikes from right handed hitters who think it’s going to be in the other batter’s box until it darts over the plate. His change is a clear third pitch, but it’s still got a shot to be average or a little better. Before the elbow injuries Tiedemann repeated his delivery smoothly and consistently and looked to eventually get to average command, no mean feat with stuff this bendy.

It’s all a question of health. If his body is able to withstand 150+ innings, Tiedmann’s ceiling is nearly unlimited. If he can’t do it, the upside is capped but he could be a true closer in the bullpen with the quality of his stuff. Unfortunately, at this point we have to consider the risk that he can’t even do that regularly. That said, he’s still just 23, and rather than a spate of separate injuries it looks like one big one that took a while to figure out. Now that his elbow’s cleaned up, he reportedly has better range of motion than he’s had since being drafted. Always a physical specimen, he’s worked on leaning his body out a bit, going from a power lifter-shaped 255 in camp in 2024 to a looser, leaner 235. Take all that with the usual grains of salt for “best shape of his life” stories in February, but for now we’re going to continue to dream.

We did it, folks. We survived the long and cold baseball offseason, and now not only has San Francisco Giants baseball returned, but also San Francisco Giants Minor League Baseball.

Only one of the organization’s affiliates has started play, but that team — the AAA Sacramento River Cats — played a trio of games over the “weekend,” a term I’m using to include Friday for content planning purposes.

In the coming days, these articles will expand to way-too-many thousands of words, as more affiliates get called into action. For now, though, it’s relatively concise. Let’s dive into the action!

Link to the 2026 McCovey Chronicles Community Prospect List (CPL)

All listed positions in the roundup are the position played in that particular game.

News

The start of the season always brings about a fair amount of news. Perhaps most notable is that RHP Will Bednar (No. 24 CPL) is beginning the year on the Development List. It’s not entirely clear what the reason for that is, or when he’ll be back to pitching in games and working his way towards an MLB debut, which seems likely to come this year.

On the depth front, infielder Osleivis Basabe and LHP Nick Margevicius — two players who were in camp as NRIs — are opening the year on the Injured List.

The Giants also announced a bunch of released Minor Leaguers over the weekend: RHPs Brent Honeywell, Ian Villers, Cale Lansville, Nick Sinacola, and Tyler Myrick; middle infielders Cole Foster and Quinn McDaniel; outfielders Donovan McIntyre and Miguel Blanco; and catchers Jesus Alexander, Juan Perez, and Jorge Ramirez (if I were Jesús Rodríguez I’d be a little worried right now … it’s a bad time to be a catcher with a “J” name!). Honeywell is the household name of that group, as a former 2nd-round pick with a fair amount of MLB experience. The Giants signed him late in camp to a Minor League deal, though without a camp invite, and it didn’t take long for one or both sides to decide to move in a new direction.

Foster is the most high-profile prospect name of the group, as he was a 3rd-round pick by the Giants in 2023. His bat never materialized, though, and last year, as a 23-year old, he sported just a .150/.264/.260 line in High-A, with a 32.3% strikeout rate, while also not playing too much defense.

Alexander is also a familiar name to Giants prospect hounds. The 20-year old lefty had a spectacular 2024 in the Dominican Summer League, posting a 1.033 OPS and a 171 wRC+, with 25 extra-base hits in 47 games, and a very low strikeout rate. But his stateside debut didn’t go particularly well, as he had just a .630 OPS and a 75 wRC+ in the Arizona Complex League last year. Those just aren’t good enough numbers for a player who looks more like a first baseman than a catcher, so that explains the move.

The releases of Myrick and Villers were slightly surprising to me, as teams hoard upper-minors bullpen depth, but the Giants apparently have plenty of it. Myrick was a 14th-round pick in 2021, and posted a 4.88 ERA and a 5.53 FIP last year between AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, but is about to turn 28; Villers was an 8th-round pick in 2021 who dominated High-A a season ago, but struggled in AA.

Best of luck to all these prospects as they try to materialize their baseball dreams elsewhere … or move on to the next chapter of their lives.

Now let’s get to the games!

AAA Sacramento (2-1)

Friday: Sacramento River Cats lost to the El Paso Chihuahuas 9-3 [box score]
Saturday: Sacramento River Cats beat the El Paso Chihuahuas 5-4 (10 innings) [box score]
Sunday: Sacramento River Cats beat the El Paso Chihuahuas 5-4 (11 innings) [box score]

As far as individual performances go, it wasn’t the most thrilling start to the season for the River Cats. But as far as games go? Well, they won their opening series, with 2 of the 3 games being decided in extra innings, on walk-offs. That’s pretty danged exciting!

While walk-offs are always exciting, this pair was the furthest thing imaginable from a walk-off home run, or the other dramatic extra-innings endings that you envision when you hear the phrase. Saturday’s occurred when catcher Logan Porter hit a ground ball with the bases loaded, and the Chihuahuas were unable to get the out at home. And Sunday’s happened when catcher Jesús Rodríguez (No. 16 CPL) hit a sacrifice fly that is probably more properly described as a sacrifice pop up, it was so shallow in center field … but shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald used his best weapon — his legs — and an artful slide to score anyway.

Walk-offs notwithstanding, the highlight of the weekend for Sacramento was that the pitchers who were in play to make the Major League roster shined out of the bullpen, to a man. RHP Spencer Bivens, after spending the entire 2025 season on the MLB roster, was surprisingly optioned last week, but took it in stride: he pitched in the Sacramento opener on Friday, and tossed a no-hit inning with 1 walk and 2 strikeouts. RHP Tristan Beck, who started to come to life late in camp but was optioned, pitched on Saturday and was nothing short of dominant: he retired all 6 batters he faced, struck out 3 of them, needed just 19 pitches to get through 2 perfect innings, and threw 15 of those pitches for strikes.

Following Beck on Saturday was veteran RHP Michael Fulmer, an NRI who was reassigned. Fulmer hilariously was almost a carbon copy of Beck, from a results standpoint: he had the same number of innings (2), batters faced (6), hits allowed (0), walks (0), strikeouts (3), and pitches thrown (19), though he was even better on the strike standpoint, with a glorious 16-to-3 strike-to-ball ratio. However, Fulmer pitched the 9th and 10th innings, and while he didn’t allow a baserunner, he still got tagged for an unearned run due to the Manfred Man scoring.

On Sunday, it was a pair of NRIs: LHP Juan Sánchez (No. 41 CPL) and RHP Gregory Santos. Sánchez, who has been in the organization longer than anyone other than Logan Webb (but is only 25), pitched a no-hit inning with 2 strikeouts, though he did walk a batter and hit another. He’s still finding his control post-Tommy John — just 9 of his 21 pitches were strikes — and when he does, he’ll almost surely be ready for a Major League debut. As for Santos, he’s also working off some injury rust, which is likely the only reason he didn’t make the Opening Day roster. Sunday was a nice step forward, as he threw 16 of 24 pitches for strikes, while taking down 2 scoreless innings, with a walk constituting his lone baserunner allowed. I would be surprised if he spends too long in Sacramento before heading back to the Majors.

As for the exciting young quartet of rostered starting pitchers in Sacramento’s rotation, they all pitched, and the results were mixed, albeit mostly good. It didn’t start particularly well, though, as LHP Carson Whisenhunt (No. 8 CPL) drew the opening assignment and ran into some issues. As we saw with Whisenhunt in Spring Training, and a bit in his MLB debut last year, things were going great … until they weren’t. After allowing a single and a walk to start the season, Whiz quickly recovered with a double play and a strikeout. He set down the side in order in the 2nd inning, with a pair of strikeouts. After allowing a leadoff walk in the 3rd, he easily retired the next 3 batters. And it was 3-up, 3-down with a K in the 4th.

But things didn’t go well in the fifth, as Whisenhunt would fail to record an out, giving up a walk and 3 consecutive singles before getting pulled from the game.

In fairness to Whiz, he had some fairly poor luck. The 1st of that trio of hits was a 58.5 mph infield single. The 2nd was a bunt. The 3rd was a line drive at a high school-esque 67.4 mph. And then, to make matters worse, Whisenhunt left the bases loaded to LHP John Michael Bertrand, who allowed all 3 inherited runners to score.

As a result, Whisenhunt’s debut line doesn’t look good: 4 innings, 4 hits, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts, and 4 earned runs. But it was certainly a better showing that the results would suggest, though the Giants do need him to find the strike zone more: he threw just 44 of 71 pitches for strikes.

The other starters did well. RHP Carson Seymour took the bump on Saturday, though the Giants only had him pitch a pair of innings. He gave up just 1 baserunner in those 2 innings (a single), while striking out 3 batters, and throwing 19 of 31 pitches for strikes. I would assume the Giants stretch out Seymour as the year goes on, but his path to the Majors most likely goes through the bullpen.

And on Sunday, it was a pair of starters who piggybacked, likely to ensure that all 4 of the notable starting arms got to play in the opening 3-game series, which is followed by a Monday off-day. Kicking things off was RHP Blade Tidwell (No. 9 CPL), who was brilliant in 2.2 shutout innings, allowing no hits and 1 walk, while striking out 3. He gave way to RHP Trevor McDonald (No. 12 CPL), who took down 2.1 innings with 1 hit, 1 hit batter, and 4 strikeouts, though he allowed a run to score. Tidwell and McDonald both impressed in camp, though the latter really struggled at the end. Both seem in the running for both bullpen roles and rotation fill-in jobs.

The hitting was fairly uninspired, with the River Cats mustering just 5 extra-base hits — and no home runs — in the 3-game miniseries (most AAA series are 6 games). Third baseman Buddy Kennedy had a pair of those, as he hit 2-8 with 2 doubles, a walk, and a strikeout.

All eyes are on first baseman/designated hitter Bryce Eldridge (No. 1 CPL), who only put the ball in play in half of his plate appearances. The power lefty started all 3 games and hit 3-10, while drawing 4 walks, getting hit by a pitch, and striking out 5 times.

Left fielder/center fielder Grant McCray was an on-base machine in Spring Training, and he carried that into the start of the AAA Season, hitting 3-9 with 4 walks, a hit by pitch, and just 1 strikeout. That last number is quite nice, as the lefty had a 27.1% strikeout rate in AAA last year, and has an untenable 42.9% K rate in his MLB time. However, McCray did not get an Opening Day assignment with San Francisco, and if he looks at the person who beat him out for that role — NRI Jared Oliva — he’ll probably get an important takeaway: put that speed on display, and steal more bases. Unfortunately, we did not see that in play this weekend, as McCray did not attempt any thefts, despite constantly being on base.

Someone who did steal a base was second baseman Nate Furman (No. 39 CPL), who got the AAA assignment despite having limited time in AA. Furman had a nice debut weekend at the level, hitting 2-5 with 3 walks, 1 strikeout, and the team’s only stolen base of the weekend.

Also having a nice weekend was Drew Gilbert, who played all 3 outfield positions, as he battles McCray (and Will Brennan) for the next-man-up 4th outfielder role. He made a strong case in this series, hitting 4-12 with a double, a walk, a hit by pitch, 2 sacrifice flies, and a strikeout.

Unfortunately, it was a very tough weekend for Fitzgerald, save for that gutsy dash home to end the series. The right-handed hitter, who is in his final option year, spent the entire weekend at shortstop, but hit just 0-12 with 1 walk, 1 hit by pitch, and 4 strikeouts. He’s really been in quite a rut dating back to the midway point of the 2024 season; here’s hoping he can break out of it, because he has a lot to offer with his legs and glove.

Update: Fitzgerald has since been designated for assignment.

And that’s the first weekend of the Minor League season, folks! Much more to come!

Upcoming schedule

Sacramento has today off, but resumes play on Tuesday when they hit the road for a 6-game series against the Salt Lake Bees of the Los Angeles Angels organization. AA Richmond begins their season on Friday, with a 3-game road series against the Erie SeaWolves, the Detroit Tigers AA affiliate. High-A Eugene also kicks things off on Friday (next Monday’s roundup is gonna be exciting!), as they host the Hillsboro Hops of the Arizona Diamondbacks organization for a 3-game set. And if you don’t want to wait until Friday, don’t worry: Low-A San Jose begins on Thursday, when they visit the Stockton Ports of the A’s organization for a 3-game series of their own.

Opening Day is a time for hope. Anything can happen, even a team everyone predicted would finish in the cellar going on a run and sitting in first place most of the year! That’s what happened in 2003, when Runelevys Hernandez tossed a gem on Opening Day, beating the White Sox 3-0. That was the first of nine wins in a row to start the season, as the Royals shocked the baseball world and contended for the division title most of the season.

That hope carried over into the next season, although the team would fall far short of expectations. But the 2004 Royals at least gave us a memorable Opening Day. The Royals trailed 7-3 going into the ninth against the White Sox, but managed to rally. Light-hitting Mendy Lopez smacked a two-run home run to tie the game. Two batters later, Carlos Beltran sent everyone home with a walk-off home run for a 9-7 victory. That team only won 58 games all year, but that one was the most memorable.

What was your favorite Opening Day or home opener? Do you make it a tradition to attend the game? Watch from work? Watch with friends?

We’re still in March. And the Cubs are once again facing a team that only comes in once… and this time, a team from the West Coast. And after today, the weather forecast looks dicey.

So expect either a) postponements or b) games played in poor conditions or c) both.

For more on the Angels, here’s Jeff Joiner from the Angels site Crashing The Pearly Gates. Jeff also runs SI.com’s Angels site.

The Angels continue to be a franchise in flux; embracing a youth movement but not fully committing to a rebuild. Zach Neto (SS) is the leader of the team in many regards and looks to be a cornerstone for years to come. Jo Adell cracked 38 home runs last season. Where the Angels youth is really on display is the rotation. Jose Soriano, Reid Detmers, Ryan Johson, and Jack Kochanowicz are all young and homegrown. The addition of Mike Maddux as the pitching coach could not have come at a better time.

Shoring up second base with the veteran Adam Frazier was a really nice move by GM Perry Minasian. Last year the Angels received no WAR at the keystone. The team also led the majors in strikeouts. Getting a steady veteran with a low K rate should help in that regard. Josh Lowe in left should strike out less than Taylor Ward did last year but he will also hit fewer home runs. Still, adding two lefty bats with solid contact profiles gives much more balance to a boom or bust prone lineup.

Mike Trout back in center field is making Angels fans nervous but the fact of the matter is they have no better option until Nelson Rada is ready. Trout is hitting 30 feet per second sprint speed for the first time since 2023 (before his knee injury) and made some swing adjustments that paid off at the end of last year. So there are reasons for hope on the Trout front.

As usual, the lack of organizational depth will doom the team to another losing season. The bullpen is already a bit of a mess. However, there are enough young arms on the farm in George Klassen, Tyler Bremner, Caden Dana and Trent Gregory-Alford to dream on a good, homegrown rotation in a couple of years. Bullpen candidates like Chase Shores, Christ Cortez, and Joel Hurtado could join Walbert Urena and Sam Bachman at the MLB level as soon as this year to shore up that unit.

The Cubs are the superior team and should win the series but will face the Angels’ two best pitches in Soriano and Yusei Kikuchi. Let’s just hope the weather holds and we get to see the full series.

Fun facts

The Cubs have played only 26 previous games against the Angels. They have played fewer vs. only three current teams: 25 vs. the Orioles and Rays, and 24 vs. the Athletics.

The Cubs are 16-10, a .615 winning percentage, against the Angels: 8-5 both at home and on the road. They have had more success overall only vs. the Athletics (.708), Orioles (.680) and Mariners (.643).

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

(2025 records for Cabrera, Taillon and Johnson. 2026 records for Boyd, Soriano and Kikuchi.)

Monday: Edward Cabrera, RHP (8-7, 3.53 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 3.83 FIP) vs. Ryan Johnson (1-1, 7.36 ERA, 1.977 WHIP, 5.52 FIP)

Tuesday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (11-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 4.65 FIP) vs. José Soriano, RHP (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 2.81 FIP)

Wednesday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (0-1, 14.73 ERA, 1.909 WHIP, 3.69 FIP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP (0-0, 4.15 ERA, 2.077 WHIP, 5.45 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Monday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Tuesday: 6:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Wednesday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

This might sound familiar, but I don’t see any reason the Cubs shouldn’t take at least two of three here. (And maybe this time, they actually will do it!)

Up next

The Cubs have Thursday off, then travel to Cleveland to face the Guardians in a three-game series beginning Friday afternoon. The Friday game is the Guardians’ home opener.

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The 2026 MLB season is barely underway, but two newcomers are already turning into daily home run machines, while the weather in Wrigley is a great place to look for dingers. The MLB player props markets are slow to adjust.

While bettors are still getting last week’s prices, these three bats are getting premium matchups in hitter-friendly spots tonight. It’s a perfect storm for value, and their home run odds won’t stay this generous for long.

These are my best home run props for Monday, March 30.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Munetaka Murakami	+480
Kazuma Okamoto	+500
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+310
💲Today's HR parlay	+12355

Munetaka Murakami (+480)

The Chicago White Sox might be headed for another dreadful season, but newcomer Munetaka Murakami is the sunshine on the Southside. The Japanese left-hander has gone deep in every game this year, and although there is some swing-and-miss potential, that works well for home run props as it's all or nothing with the rookie, with all three hits leaving the yard.

He has also moved from the sixth spot in the lineup to the second, so five plate appearances are very possible if Chicago can turn things over. He's going from an indoor setting to another controlled environment in Miami, and only four other pitchers in baseball last year gave up more home runs than Miami's Chris Paddack.

Fair price on the projection for our MLB picks is +360.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, MIAM

Kazuma Okamoto (+520)

Targeting Colorado Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano is a clear angle here. He allowed the fourth-most home runs last season and ranked in the Bottom 6% of the league in strikeout rate and Barrel% — a bad combo for limiting damage. He doesn’t miss bats, and there’s a real downside in a hitter-friendly matchup.

He now faces the Toronto Blue Jays, who just hit three homers on Sunday and have already seen Sugano multiple times, dating back to his stint with the Orioles last year — a quiet edge in familiarity.

The best +EV look is Kazuma Okamoto HR (+520), with the market as short as +425. He hit out of the five-hole yesterday and already cashed a HR ticket in a tougher matchup.

No starter projects for more earned runs on the slate than Sugano. Early in the season, pricing on NPB-to-MLB bats can lag — and this is exactly the kind of spot bettors can exploit before markets fully adjust.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, Sportsnet

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+310)

The wind is a major factor at Wrigley Field today, with Kevin Roth’s OVERcast projecting a 62% boost to home runs compared to a neutral park. Winds are blowing 17 mph out to left-center, creating one of the best power environments on the slate.

The Chicago Cubs draw a great matchup against Ryan Johnson, who struggles badly vs. left-handed bats. After just 12 minor-league games, he was rushed to the majors and allowed four HRs in 14+ innings, including three to lefties in just 25 plate appearances (.455 AVG).

Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the best chance for the Cubs to take advantage of this. 

With the total already touching 10 in most markets, this shapes up as one of the top home run spots on Monday’s board.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, FanDuel Sports Network West

Today’s HR parlay

Munetaka Murakami	Bet Now +12355
Kazuma Okamoto
Pete Crow-Armstrong

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Fresh off the heels of a big Opening Day weekend, the Mariners and KING 5 made a significant announcement this morning. Friend of the blog Joe Veyera had speculated on this two days ago after coming across a peculiar TV scheduling on April 10:

And it all became official this morning:

This is a pretty excellent step by the Mariners in terms of both growing the local fanbase and making games more easily accessible for all fans. With the Torrent, Kraken, and Storm all regularly airing games on free over-the-air channels like KONG and FOX 13+, it’s high time the Mariners got in on that action. Seahawks games have obviously been free to watch locally for decades because football is king and there are only 16 games, not 162. Many things about football make its fandom a lower bar to clear, but MLB teams being squirreled away on regional sports networks has long been an unnecessarily high barrier for local fans. Comcast cable is ludicrously expensive. The new Mariners-only local streaming options for subscribers have been incredible the last few seasons, but not everyone has $100 to drop to access it, or the $20 monthly fee. While it’s only 10 games, being able to go home, press one or two buttons and have the Mariners game pop on? Phenomenal. The way it should be and the way….it used to be before streaming on myriad different platforms took over.

I digress. This is great news in general for Mariners fans. Can anyone tell me what season was the last time the Mariners had regular season home games on free over-the-air cable? I’m trying to figure it out and haven’t gotten a good answer yet. Sound off in the comments!

After getting knocked around Saturday to the tune of a 10-2 loss, the 2026 Nats showed a level of resilience hardly ever shown by the 2025 club, taking command early thanks to a 3-run shot by Joey Wiemer to defeat the Cubs 6-3 and win their first opening series since 2018. The story of the weekend was the aforementioned Wiemer, who had yet to record an out and is tied for the major league lead in fWAR with 0.6, despite playing just 2 games compared to the other leaders, who have played 4.

The club now heads to Philadelphia, where they’ll take on the currently last-place Philadelphia Phillies (Have to take every opportunity you get to say that). The Phils won on opening day before dropping the final 2 games of their opening series, backed by a strong start by MacKenzie Gore in his Rangers debut yesterday, going 5 1/3 innings and allowing 2 runs. The trio of former Nats at the top of the Phillies lineup were all cold in the first series of the year, with Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber batting .154, and Bryce Harper batting .091.

Game One – Monday 6:40 PM EST

WSH: LHP Foster Griffin

PHI: RHP Taijuan Walker

Griffin will make his Nationals debut tonight and his first big league appearance since 2022. He showed promise in his 2 Spring Training starts (3 including the exhibition against team Venezuela), posting a 2.53 FIP across 8 innings.

Walker had a solid bounce-back 2025 season for the Phillies after getting roughed up to an ERA over 7 in 2024, posting a 4.08 ERA in 123.2 innings pitched. He’ll make his season debut today against a Nats team he has a 3.56 career ERA against.

Game Two – Tuesday 6:40 PM EST

WSH: TBD

PHI: RHP Andrew Painter

Monday is Littell’s scheduled day in the rotation, but the Nationals have not announced a starter yet. If he is unable to go, the Nats could roll with a variety of options, from a Brad Lord spot start to a bullpen game, to a starter callup from Triple A with a corresponding roster move.

Painter was on the fast track to the big leagues for the Phillies before Tommy John Surgery knocked him out of the 2023 and 2024 season, but after 22 starts in Triple A in 2025 with middling results, the Phillies trust him to be their 5th starter in 2026, at least to begin the year. He will make his big league debut Monday night against the Nats.

Game Three – Wednesday 1:05 PM EST

WSH: RHP Cade Cavalli

PHI: LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Cavalli only went 3 2/3 innings in his start on Opening Day, being limited by some command issues, but the swing and miss stuff looked on point, striking out 5 Cubs batters. He’ll be tested again in his second career start against a strong Phillies lineup, but one he did throw 7 scoreless against last season for his first big league win.

Sanchez dominated against the Rangers on Opening Day, throwing 6 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts. He’ll now face a lefty-heavy Nats lineup that has had success in their 2 games against lefty starters so far in 2026, scoring 16 runs in both games combined.

A Chance To Make A Statement

Taking the opening series on the road against a playoff team from last season was a strong start for Butera and his ballclub, but if they can go into Philadelphia and take a series from their hated division rivals, a team filled with former Nats, it would send a message to the NL East and baseball this Nationals club isn’t a pumching bag for them anymore.

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Luis Castillo will take the mound in what were friendly confines for him last season as the New York Yankees open a series with the Seattle Mariners.

On the other side, Ryan Weathers will make his debut for the Bronx Bombers after being acquired from the Marlins last season. We think this pitch pairing sets up both teams to keep the runs down.

My Yankees vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks break down why we like a low-scoring affair on Monday, March 30.

Yankees vs Mariners predictions

Yankees vs Mariners best bet: Under 7.5 (-110)

Luis Castillo's home numbers last season were legitimate: a 2.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 100+ innings, with his strikeout rate jumping to 25%. He's in a position to attack a New York Yankees lineup with plenty of swing and miss. 

On the other hand, it is difficult to know what to make of Ryan Weathers, but a short outing is a near certainty. That will turn things over to a well-rested New York bullpen that has yet to allow a run this season.

Two quality pitching outings (one by committee) in one of baseball's most suppressive offensive environments.

COVERS INTEL: Luis Castillo's 2.11 ERA home-road differential last season was among the largest of any qualified starter. Quite frankly, he was literally a different pitcher at home than away..

Yankees vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)

While the sample is small, it’s pretty easy to say the Yankees haven’t fixed much of the strikeout issues that have plagued them for the (checks notes) at least the last five years. 

They are averaging just under 10 over the first three games, but the whiff rate remains in the Top 5 of the league, much like it has over the past few seasons.

With that in mind and the context of Castillo at home, I paired his strikeout number with the best bet for today’s SGP.

Yankees vs Mariners SGP

• Under 7.5
• Luis Castillo Over 5.5 strikeouts

Yankees vs Mariners home run pick: Randy Arozarena (+475)

Randy Arozarena is in a good spot if he can avoid the whiff (and he’s done a good job of that so far this season). Few players on the Seattle Mariners roster hit the ball harder than him consistently, and his early-season barrel rate reeks of someone due for a bomb.

What’s particularly noteworthy about this matchup is how it lines up with the pitch mix of Weathers. He’s mostly a two-pitch thrower, and Arozarena was in the top three of Mariners players in hard-hit rate last season against the two pitches he’ll see. 

Yankees vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: New York -110 | Seattle -110
• Run line: New York +1.5 (-225) | Seattle -1.5 (+195)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Yankees vs Mariners trend

The Yankees have cashed the first-five moneyline in 42 of their last 70 games for +16.15 units and a 14% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners.

How to watch Yankees vs Mariners and game info

Yankees vs Mariners latest injuries

Yankees vs Mariners weather

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We have seen the Guardians for four games – what can we say about them?

First, let’s be clear – you can’t say much of any certainty about any baseball team until Memorial Day. And, I was convinced that the Guardians were a bad baseball team last season at the end of August because their offense was so inept… and they won 88 games and their division. So, I am not offering any full assessments on this team. It’s four, cold games across the country. There aren’t a lot of conclusions to be drawn, yet.

With that said, something that really stands out is that the Mariners were not afraid to throw the Guardians four-seam fastballs and that strategy really paid off. The Guardians saw the third most four-seam fastballs of any team in MLB this weekend and they were 23rd in wOBA at .259 and 29th in xwOBA at .234 against those fastballs. Believe me that teams will be happy to challenge Guardians’ hitters (except, perhaps, for Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter) with fastballs until they can show they can do significant damage on those pitches. So, time to drink some caffeine and head to the plate looking for heaters you can do some damage on, boys. It’s warm in LA; make it happen.

Meanwhile, Guardians’ pitching is currently 27th in MLB with a 5.40 batters per 9 walk rate. Thankfully, they also came out of the series 5th in MLB with a strikeout rate per 9 of 11.31 batters. Cleveland was giving up a lot of hard contact as seen by them being 20th in xFIP, so it is absolutely imperative that they decrease their walk rate, especially if they cannot find a way to more consistently miss the barrel of the bat. It certainly seemed like the Guardians’ pitchers were not comfortable on the mound and could not consistently execute their pitches. This may be an “it’s early” phenomenon, but I do think the pitching staff’s walk rate will be one of the most important metrics to follow in 2026.

Finally, it’s obvious the team had some issues defensively (mostly in the outfield) and some issues making wise ABS challenges. I hope the team offers some additional restrictions on which batters can challenge and when and where they want those challenges to take place. I think the team will continue to have some hiccups in outfield defense as players like CJ Kayfus and David Fry get used to playing out there. However, it’s important that Stephen Vogt use his bench to get ideal defensive alignments in place later in games if the team manages to get a lead.

Also… go get Travis Bazzana to play second, move Brayan Rocchio to short, and DFA Gabriel Arias already, for gosh sakes!

I am sure a variety of the issues I describe here will improve with a larger sample size to draw from, but, at the least, we have a few areas of concern to monitor in the games ahead. What are your chosen areas of greatest concern for the Guardians as of right now? Tell us in the comments below.

What we learned from the Red Sox' opening series in Cincinnati originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

After their shutout win on Opening Day, the Boston Red Sox didn’t give fans much to cheer about in their three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds.

Boston dropped Games 2 and 3 on Saturday and Sunday, falling to 1-2 on the season. Reliever Greg Weissert played a role in both losses, allowing a solo homer in Saturday’s 6-5 defeat and a three-run homer that decided Sunday’s 3-2 loss.

Weissert was far from the only player worthy of blame. Sonny Gray made a costly fielding error in his Sox debut, Jarren Duran was picked off at first in a critical situation, and offseason addition Caleb Durbin went 0-for-12 with three strikeouts, including a brutal K on a 3-0 count in the series finale.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, there are still 159 games left on the schedule. Here are five takeaways from the opening series in Cincinnati as Boston turns its attention to Houston:

1. Situational hitting still an issue

The Red Sox totaled only 10 runs in the three-game series despite having plenty of opportunities to score.

They went 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position in Saturday’s 6-5 loss, then 0-for-7 with RISP on Sunday. They left 30 runners on base in total: 11 in Game 1, 10 in Game 2, and nine in Game 3.

Boston’s lineup against lefties was considered one of its biggest weaknesses heading into the season, and it didn’t do much to dispel that narrative in Cincinnati. It mustered only one extra-base hit and one run in 35 at-bats against southpaws.

The pitching staff mostly held up its end of the bargain in the series, but the Red Sox’ offense couldn’t come through when it mattered most.

2. Wilyer Abreu can hit 30-plus homers

Boston didn’t add a huge power threat to the middle of its lineup during the offseason. That could come back to bite Craig Breslow & Co., but their big bat could come in the form of Wilyer Abreu.

Abreu mashed homers on Saturday and Sunday. He has started the season 6-for-13 with two doubles, two homers, four RBI, and only one strikeout.

Abreu is blossoming into the middle-of-the-order threat the Red Sox desperately need, though he still has to prove he can hit left-handed pitching consistently.

3. Connelly Early should stay in the rotation

Red Sox rookie southpaw Connelly Early looked sharp in his season debut, allowing just one earned run with six strikeouts over 5.1 innings. His spot on the Opening Day roster was a bit of a surprise, but he showed why he belongs on the big-league roster and shouldn’t be sent back down to the minors.

It’ll be interesting to see how Boston approaches its starting rotation going forward. Johan Oviedo appeared to be the frontrunner for a rotation spot after being acquired from Pittsburgh in the offseason, but Early added to his case for a permanent role after impressing during his brief MLB stint last year.

4. Solid start for Marcelo Mayer

Mayer was a question mark entering the season due to his injury history and inconsistency at the plate. So far, so good as he went 2-for-2 on Opening Day with a pinch-hit double and two of the club’s three runs. He hit another double in Game 2 and looked smooth defensively throughout the series.

Mayer’s talent is undeniable, and his performance in the opening series was a reminder of that. He’ll look to keep it going in Houston and earn an opportunity to play more against left-handers, whom he has struggled against throughout his pro career.

5. Too many mental miscues

The Red Sox could have swept the series had it not been for a few mental mistakes, but the fundamentals were an issue just as they were for much of last year.

In Game 2, veteran right-hander Sonny Gray allowed a run to score on a bizarre fielding blunder in which he dropped the ball while attempting to tag the runner at home plate. In the eighth inning of Game 3, Jarren Duran was picked off at first base to spoil a potential rally in the one-run loss.

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The New York Mets will hit the road for the first time this season as they visit the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night.

St. Louis is looking to build for the future rather than win now, and my Mets vs. Cardinals predictions expect the Redbirds to be outmatched tonight.

Let’s take a closer look at this game with my free MLB picks for Monday, March 30.

Mets vs Cardinals predictions

Mets vs Cardinals best bet: Mets -1.5 (+114)

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the few teams pretty much admitting they’re rebuilding in 2026, with a roster designed more to develop talent than win games.

While St. Louis won two of three against the Rays to open the season, expectations remain low.

The top of the New York Mets lineup should find success against righty Kyle Leahy, with Juan Sotoboasting a career .999 OPS against right-handed pitching.

Add in the fact that Clay Holmes should give New York the pitching edge, and I like the Mets to cover the run line at plus-money.

COVERS INTEL: Clay Holmes has traditionally gotten off to fast starts to the season, going 6-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in March and April for his career.

Mets vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)

Along with taking the Mets to win tonight, I’m going to take two of their stars to make an impact on the offensive end.

Soto has already shown what he can do in the early going, hitting .357 with three RBI in New York’s opening three-game series against the Pirates.

On the other hand, Bo Bichette has struggled in his Mets debut, going just 1-for-14 so far with eight strikeouts. There’s little doubt he’ll turn things around, however, and I’m betting on the former Blue Jays star to pick up 2+ combined hits, runs, and RBI tonight.

Mets vs Cardinals SGP

• Mets -1.5
• Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBI
• Bo Bichette Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI

Mets vs Cardinals home run pick: Jorge Polanco (+600)

Jorge Polanco is only 1-for-10 to start the season, but he did flash his power during spring training, hitting two homers in 29 at-bats. And while Polanco has never been an elite slugger, he was consistent in Minnesota and Seattle over the past five years, homering at least 14 times each season and hitting 26 dingers in 2025.

Most of all, I’m backing Polanco because of the generous odds here.

Mets vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: New York -148 | St. Louis +126
• Run line: New York -1.5 | St. Louis +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Mets vs Cardinals trend

The Mets went 2-0 against the Cardinals with Holmes on the mound in 2025, covering the run line both times. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Mets vs Cardinals and game info

Mets vs Cardinals latest injuries

Mets vs Cardinals weather

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a Colorado Rockies crusher throughout his Toronto Blue Jays career.

With Tomoyuki Sugano toeing the rubber for the visitors, my Blue Jays vs. Rockies predictions expect another big night from Vladito.

I explain further with my free MLB picks for Monday, March 30.

Rockies vs Blue Jays predictions

Rockies vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-105)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a .361 career batting average against this current Colorado Rockies pitching staff, including going 3-for-7 with a double against Tomoyuki Sugano. 

Guerrero has a .571 OBP and hasn't struck out once to start the season, but is still looking for his first extra-base hit of the year. 

Today's matchup against Sugano offers an opportunity to correct that in a big way. 

Sugano is a contact pitcher who is often hit hard. Guerrero nearly led the majors in xBA last season with a hard-hit rate in the 90th percentile.

That is a dangerous combination for a Rockies hurler who lives in the zone, misses zero bats, and never entices anyone to chase.

COVERS INTEL: Sugano is a strike thrower who pitches to contact, ranking in the fourth percentile in barrel rates and third in xBA and xERA in his first season in the majors. 

Rockies vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

100ish words about the SGP analysis. The best bet DOES NOT need to be in the SGP.

Rockies vs Blue Jays SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
• Tomoyuki Sugano Over 2.5 runs
• Blue Jays -1.5

Rockies vs Blue Jays home run pick: Addison Barger (+425)

Sugano was prone to giving up hard contact last season, which resulted in 33 home runs allowed.  Give me one of the Jays’ hardest hitters in the lineup, Addison Barger, to go yard today. The Jays slugger was 1-for-2 against Sugano last season with a homer, and hit 20 of his 21 long balls vs. right-handed pitchers.

Rockies vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Colorado +230 | Toronto -290
• Run line: Colorado +2.5 (-135) | Toronto -2.5 (+115)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Rockies vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Blue Jays.

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Rockies vs Blue Jays weather

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Hey, Hi, Hello, it’s our first series preview of the 2026 season and it’s our lovable Guardians vs. the new Evil Empire Los Angeles Dodgers. Here we go.

The Guardians are 2-2 after their opening series against 2026 ALCS finalist, the Seattle Mariners. The Dodgers are 3-0 having swept their Opening Series from the Diamondbacks.

I don’t know that we can make too much of overall team numbers quite yet, so I’ll spare you the pitching and hitting rankings of the teams in these previews until we have at least 12 games to go use as a sample. So, instead, here’s the Dodger’s typical lineup:

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH
2. Kyle Tucker, RF
3. Mookie Betts, SS
4. Freddie Freeman, 1B
5. Will Smith, C
6. Max Muncy, 3B
7. Teoscar Hernandez, LF
8. Andy Pages, CF
9. Alex Freeland, 2B

Beware the curse of the former Guardian from the bench, however, as right-handed hitting Alex Call is their to come off the bench against lefties. This lineup, needless to say, is incredible. It’s an embarrassing amount of riches for one team to have. So, the bigger they are, the harder they fall, I guess.

The Dodgers’ bullpen, I think, is still probably the weakest part of their team, but it is now anchored by Edwin Diaz as closer, who is excellent, of course. So, if the game is close late, the Guardians’ need to make a move in the 7th or 8th before Diaz emerges from those bullpen doors.

Schedule:
Monday, March 30th, 10:10PM ET – Parker Messick, LHP vs. Roki Sasaki, RHP
Tuesday, March 31st, 10:10PM ET – Either Tanner Bibee or Kolby Allard or Logan Allen vs. Shohei Ohtani, RHP
Wednesday, April 1st, 8:20PM ET – Gavin Williams, RHP vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP

Against the Dodgers, you have to avoid traffic on the bases, so the Guardians’ starters will need to drastically tighten up their command and issue way fewer walks than they did in Seattle. I would also say this is a series to emphasize defense that backs up a solid offensive effort. As Kayfus tries to figure out left field, I’d probably prefer to put a better defender in left than Kayfus when Kwan is in center for the time being. I am, thus, not going to complain about Angel Martinez and Daniel Schneemann getting some outfield reps in this series.

The Guardians will definitely need Steven Kwan, Kyle Manzardo, Bo Naylor and Jose Ramirez to find their footing offensively in this series to have a shot to take 2 of 3. But, it will also be a good chance for Chase DeLauter to test his phenom status against the best team in baseball.

Winning one game in this series would make for a successful series for Cleveland in my opinion. Winning two would be wildly exciting. In any case, it will be a good measuring stick moment for this team early in the 2026 campaign.

It’s never good when your collection of high-priced hitters channels the performance of the worst Phillies team the city has seen in the 21st century. And yet, after their first three games of the 2026 season, the Phils are off to their worst offensive start since 2015.

They enter their three-game series against the Washington Nationals Monday batting .186, the 4th-lowest mark in baseball, with a .292 on-base percentage (22nd) and .278 slugging percentage (26th). Their 18 hits in three games marks the first time since 2015 the Phils have failed to accumulate 20 hits in their first three games.

In case you needed reminding, those were some dark days. They hosted the Boston Red Sox to begin that season at Citizens Bank Park for a three-game series. They lost the season opener 8-0. Cole Hamels got blitzed for four runs in five innings of work, allowing four home runs in the process. The lineup for that day was cringe-inducing.

Three hits. Two walks. Nine strikeouts. Yikes.

The Phils won the second game, 4-2, behind Aaron Harang, but the bats piled up a meager six hits in the victory. A 6th inning, three-run homer by Jeff Francoeur did virtually all the damage.

The Phils then lost the rubber match, 6-2. No. 3 starter David Buchanan (we’ve come a long way, haven’t we?), lasted just three innings and allowed six runs on seven hits and four walks, allowing 11 of the 19 batters he faced to reach base. The anemic Phils lineup could produce only five hits in the third game, all of them singles.

The 2015 Phillies lost 99 games. They finished 27 games out of first place, dead last in the NL East. So no, you don’t want your World Series caliber roster compared to this combination of washed former champions, mediocre veterans and hoped-for prospects that never lived up to their potential.

Of course, the 2026 Phillies are not the 2015 Phillies. No matter how down you may be about this team’s chances of winning a World Series, there is no doubt the 26 players we saw over the weekend at the Bank are light years better than the ‘15 roster that signaled the represented the bottom of the post-2011 rebuild.

There’s little doubt the trio of Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper will improve on their 5-for-37, 12 strikeout, 3-walk opening act. They won’t go 0-for-17 on their first two trips through the lineup in their two losses over the weekend again, either.

And as we will encourage you to do throughout this Phillies season, it’s important to zoom out and see what else is happening around the league.

So yes, all the early-season caveats apply.

It’s still March. The weather is not hitter-ish. And lest we forget, a lack of power plagued the Phillies throughout the first half of last year before the warmer weather kicked in and the ball began flying around CBP again.

This is what the Phillies offense is. For better or worse, they are a streaky bunch. The additions of Adolis Garcia and Justin Crawford weren’t going to “fix” the lineups flaws. When things are going badly, it looks really bad. The same can be said for every other struggling offense. Everyone would have felt better had the bats continued their Opening Day production in Games 2 and 3, but they didn’t.

As manager Rob Thomson noted after Sunday’s 8-3 loss, the Phillies did draw eight walks on Sunday. Bryce Harper, who said he wanted to walk 140 times this year, drew two of them. Unfortunately, he also had one of his worst at-bats of a season that, admittedly, remains in its infancy. With the bases loaded and no one out in the 6th, down 6-0, Harper had a chance to put a major dent in that deficit.

He swung at the first pitch, a slider in on his hands from MacKenzie Gore. He took a 96 mph fastball up and over the heart of the plate for strike two. After a waste pitch, a high-and-away fastball out of the zone, Gore ripped off a perfectly executed slider down-and-away that Harper tipped into the catcher’s glove for strike three.

Turner hit into two double plays. Schwarber looked lost after his Opening Day dinger. Garcia chased pitches out of the zone all weekend long.

It was ugly.

It was also just one series, the first series.

So don’t confuse the 2026 Phillies for the ‘15 Phils.

But it’s OK to angrily chuckle a bit.

The Twins won the division in 2023, and appeared to be on their way to a playoff spot in 2024 before the bottom fell out and they finished with 82 wins. Things went even worse last year, and they traded away several key players, losing 92 games, their worst season since 2016.

The Royals took 7 of 13 from the Twins last year, the first time since 2021 they won the season series. The Twins have a depleted roster, but there are still some talented players left on the team. Under first-year manager Derek Shelton, they dropped two of three in Baltimore to begin the year.

Minnesota Twins (1-2) at Kansas City Royals (1-2)

Twins: 4.02 runs scored/game (26th in MLB), 3.93 runs allowed/game (4th)

Royals: 4.47 runs scored/game (13th), 4.53 runs allowed/game (20th)

Byron Buxton is super talented when he can stay on the field, which is seldom. He appeared in 126 games last year, his highest totals since 2017, putting up career highs in home runs (35), runs scored (97), and RBI (83). The Twins added Josh Bell, who is on his eighth team in seven seasons, but he has put up an above-average OPS+ in each season since 2020. In 23 career games against the Royals, Bell is a .341/.417/.588 hitter with five home runs. Luke Keaschall hit 9-for-25 (.360) with a home run against the Royals in his rookie campaign. Matt Wallner had a reverse split last year, hitting lefties better than righties.

*-All numbers from 2025

Simeon Woods Richardson ended last year strong with a 2.33 ERA in five September starts. Opponents hit just .137 against his splitter last year.

Joe Ryan set career-bests last year in innings (171), wins (13), strikeouts (194), and ERA (3.42). In 11 career starts against the Royals, he is 8-1 with a 2.02 ERA. He gave up just one hit in 5.1 scoreless innings on Opening Day in Baltimore.

Taj Bradley had a 6.61 ERA in six starts with the Twins after they acquired him from the Rays last summer. He struck out nine in 4.1 innings, allowing just three hits and one run in his 2026 debut.

The Twins traded away Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Danny Coulombe in July, and their bullpen had a 4.93 ERA after the trade deadline. They brought back Taylor Rogers, a 35-year-old lefty who pitched for them from 2016 to 2021. Cole Sands had the eighth-biggest ERA to FIP gap among relievers last year. The Twins picked up Zak Kent off waivers, and Anthony Banda and Eric Orze in minor trades.

The Twins can still lean on a few impact bats (no more Ty France!) and some quality arms at the top of the rotation, but the bullpen is not what it was a year ago. Minnesota has been a tough opponent for the Royals for several years, but this is a home series Kansas City should take.