So how good are the 2026 Mets after their offseason renovation, and where do they stack up in the NL East?
Judging by the responses I received from seven MLB scouts and executives polled over the last several days, it’s a fascinating question that seems to have an unusually wide range of possibilities, setting up a season of considerable intrigue.
The only consensus among those polled is that the division should be one of the toughest in the majors, likely to be decided by a tight race involving the Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves, all capable of winning 90 or more games, with the acknowledgement that the Miami Marlins are on the rise, perhaps an X factor of sorts.
Of those teams, none produced more varied opinions than the Mets, largely because they made the most dramatic changes, starting with David Stearns’ decision to break up the position-player core via the departures of Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil.
As a result, win predictions from the evaluators I spoke to ranged from 83 to 95, with the disparity primarily centering around to the Mets’ offensive potential and questions about the bullpen.
Consider these contrasting opinions:
"The bottom half of their lineup is full of holes," said one scout. "If (Carson) Benge blossoms quickly, maybe I’d re-think that, but I need to see it first."
"I think their quality of at-bats one-through-nine will be improved," countered an NL East executive. "To me they’ve been a poor situational hitting team (in years past). They’ve added some guys who will be tough outs in big spots."
The takes on the bullpen, specifically Devin Williams, were equally disparate:
"You can’t ignore the difficulty Williams had closing for the Yankees last year and just assume he’ll be fine in that role with the Mets, especially replacing (Edwin) Diaz," said one scout. "He’s still got that elite changeup and he eventually pitched well for the Yankees, but not as the closer. He didn’t handle the pressure well – it was affecting his mechanics and his command."
Said another scout of Williams: "I think he did struggle with the expectations as a Yankee but I like the way he figured it out and pitched well, especially in the postseason. I think he’ll go back to being as dominant as he was in Milwaukee."
And so it went, from one extreme to the other in trying to project the Mets in 2026. The one area of the ballclub that drew something of a consensus is the starting pitching, which everyone I spoke to believes will give them a basis for contention, mostly due to the trade for Freddy Peralta and the expectation that Nolan McLean will build on his stunning success late last season.
"Their rotation should be deep with a chance to be dominant," said one team executive. "Peralta was exactly what they needed at the top. To me McLean was no fluke -- if you watched him pitch you know the stuff is legit and the poise is uncommon. If they get bounce-backs from a couple of their veterans and then their young guys like (Jonah) Tong and (Christian) Scott eventually reach their potential, their starting pitching should give them a chance to win just about every day."
Added an NL scout:
"I’d make the case they have as many high-ceiling guys as just about anybody. I include (Kodai) Senga and (Sean) Manaea in that category, based on what they’ve done when healthy. Maybe even (David) Peterson -- he looked the part until he seemed to hit a wall late in the season. I think they all have a chance to get back to pitching at a high level.
"Then there’s Peralta and McLean, both with plus-plus stuff. And I like Tong. He just needs more time to develop. Obviously you need to see the bounce backs from certain guys materialize, but if they do I’d give them a chance to have a top five rotation in the game.”
So with all of this in mind, let’s get back to the question of how the Mets stack up in the division. The Phillies, remember, won it in a romp last season with 96 wins, while the Mets were a disappointing second with 83 wins, followed by the Marlins with 79 wins and the Braves with just 76 wins in what was a disastrous season for them.
Of the seven people I spoke to, three picked the Phillies to win it again, while two picked the Mets and two picked the Braves.
The Phillies offer the most certainty, with largely the same team that has been to the postseason the last four seasons. The one obvious bit of uncertainty, however, is the status of their ace, Zack Wheeler, who will be coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery last September and thus looms as a huge X factor.
"They need Wheeler in form to win the division again, especially after losing (Ranger) Suarez,” one exec said. "If he’s back they’re still very good and deep in the rotation. Then the question is whether age will catch up with their core. Their key guys are all in their 30s so injuries could be a factor. But they’re still very dangerous. They just haven’t gotten to the finish line in the postseason."
Added a scout: "To me, the Phillies have the highest floor. They should be in the high 80s in wins at worst."
The Braves, meanwhile, could have the highest upside. At least that was the consensus of those I polled, especially the two people who picked them to win the division. But even those who didn’t made the point that they have the potential for a huge bounce back season after injuries in their starting rotation and underperformance from their once-potent offense doomed them in 2025.
"If they get (Chris) Sale, (Spencer) Schwellenbach, and (Spencer) Strider back from injuries and pitching like they have in the past, they’ll be a 90-win team again,” said one scout. "And then if they hit like they did two years ago, they’ll have a chance to win it all. They have a ton of talent."
So based on these evaluations, there is a clear case to be made for each of the Mets, Phillies, and Braves to win the NL East.
The difference when it comes to the Mets is that there is more of an unknown quality due to the changes made by Stearns and thus the widest range of predictions -- with two of those polled picking them to win 92 or more games, three picking them for somewhere in the high 80s, and two picking them for 85 or fewer.
The difference centered mostly on the lineup, now featuring Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and Marcus Semien as newcomers.
"I love them adding Bichette," said one long-time executive. "He’s a proven RBI guy who knows how to hit in big spots. But I think they’ll miss Alonso’s power. I’m not sure what they’ll get from Robert or Semien. Same goes for some of their holdovers, guys like (Mark) Vientos and (Francisco) Alvarez. I like that they were willing to change the mix after a disappointing season. I just don’t know if they’re better."
Finally, one scout who had a more optimistic projection may have best summed up the state of the Mets for hopeful fans.
"They should be a more well-rounded team. Better defensively. Better starting pitching, I like Benge a lot and I know they do, too, so I feel like he’s the wild card offensively they need to make them a 90-plus wins team. Overall I like what they did this offseason, other than letting Diaz walk. But it feels like something of a leap of faith until I see some baseball."