Category: MLB

Charlotte Knights
March/April record 14-16; Overall record 14-16

Knights Player of the Month
Jacob Gonzalez .291/.403/.573, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 103 at-bats

Oliver Dunn .277/.372/.438, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 7-for-8 stolen bases, 112 at-bats
Jarred Kelenic .202/.346/.464, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 7-for-7 stolen bases, 84 at-bats (promoted to Chicago on April 29)
Rikuu Nishida .347/.407/.408, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 5-for-6 stolen bases, 49 at-bats (promoted from Birmingham on April 17)
Drew Romo .298/.385/.561, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 3-for-3 stolen bases, 57 at-bats (promoted to Chicago on April 25)
Korey Lee .176/.279/.365, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 74 at-bats

Tanner McDougal 3.00 ERA, 24 IP, 13 BB, 27 K (placed on injured list on April 30 due to a flexor strain, will be shut down from throwing for a few weeks)
Hagen Smith 2.33 ERA, 19 1.3 IP, 13 BB, 29 K
Tyler Schweitzer 3.78 ERA, 16 2/3 IP, 4 BB, 15 K
Ben Peoples 0.59 ERA, 15 1/3 IP, 7 BB, 17 K
Shane Smith 5.27 ERA, 13 2/3 IP, 8 BB, 18 K
Noah Schultz 1.29 ERA, 14 IP, 2 BB, 19 K (promoted to Chicago on April 14)
Jonathan Cannon 12.66 ERA, 10 2/3 IP, 4 BB, 11 K

The Knights had an OK start to the season, and as of the end of April, they are 14-16 with a +13 run differential. Out of the 20 teams in the International League, the Knights are third in OPS (.800) and 13th in ERA (5.05).

Shortstop Jacob Gonzalez, 23, is off to a terrific start. In addition to providing valuable defense at a premium position, Gonzalez posted a .976 OPS during the first month of the season. Gonzalez launched eight homers, which matches his home run total throughout all of 2025. In 2024, his season OPS was .650, and in 2025, it was .652. For someone whose OPS did not escape the mid-.600s, Gonzalez was one of the organization’s most pleasant surprises in April. The White Sox drafted Gonzalez in the first round in 2023, and his stock had fallen quite a bit since then. Entering this season, MLB Pipeline had him as the No. 24 White Sox prospect, and we had him at No. 23. However, given his performance in Triple-A, Gonzalez might get an opportunity in the majors sooner than many predicted.

2026 Charlotte Knights Players of the Month
Jacob Gonzalez (March-April)

Birmingham Barons
April record10-14; Overall record 10-14

Barons Player of the Month
Braden Montgomery .310/.423/.575, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 87 at-bats

Samuel Zavala .267/.406/.488, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 3-for-3 stolen bases, 86 at-bats
Adam Fogel .281/.359/.579, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 57 at-bats
Alec Makarewicz .304/.385/.609, 5-for-5 stolen bases, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 46 at-bats (promoted from Winston-Salem on April 17)
Rikuu Nishida .250/.434/.350, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 6-for-6 stolen bases, 40 at-bats (promoted to Charlotte on April 17)

Shane Murphy 3.99 ERA, 29 1/3 IP, 6 BB, 21 K
Jackson Kelley 1.65 ERA, 16 1/3 IP, 5 BB, 14 K
Connor McCullough 2.81 ERA, 16 IP, 6 BB, 16 K
Jairo Iriarte 2.84 ERA, 12 2/3 IP, 8 BB, 16 K
Christian Oppor 9.26 ERA, 11 2/3 IP, 14 BB, 10 K

Coming off back-to-back Southern League championships, the 2026 Barons are not as strong as they were during the past couple of seasons. However, there were some positives during a 10-14 month. Out of eight Southern League teams, the Barons are second in OPS (.757), but they are sixth in ERA (5.50).

Outfielder Braden Montgomery, 23, gave Birmingham’s offense a large boost. Montgomery, who is universally regarded as one of the South Siders’ top prospects, posted a sky-high .998 OPS. Montgomery has a 60 power tool and a 70 arm tool, per MLB Pipeline, and he made plenty of use of those abilities during an excellent month. At this rate, Montgomery is positioning himself for a promotion quite soon.

2026 Birmingham Barons Players of the Month
Braden Montgomery (April)

Winston-Salem Dash
April record15-9; Overall record 15-9

Dash Player of the Month
Colby Shelton .378/.485/.720, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 5-for-6 stolen bases, 82 at-bats

Caleb Bonemer .284/.396/.750, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 2-for-2 stolen bases, 88 at-bats
Anthony DePino .253/.373/.458, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 3-for-3 stolen bases, 83 at-bats
Boston Smith .324/.432/.784, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 37 at-bats
Kyle Lodise .182/.438/.309, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 10-for-12 stolen bases, 55 at-bats

Dylan Cumming 5.73 ERA, 22 IP, 4 BB, 28 K
Grant Umberger 5.40 ERA, 21 2/3 IP, 7 BB, 22 K
Justin Sinibaldi 8.57 ERA, 21 IP, 11 BB, 20 K
Jake Curtis 1.50 ERA, 12 IP, 2 BB, 17 K
Gabe Davis 1.50 ERA, 12 IP, 5 BB, 9 K

The Dash posted the organization’s only winning record in April. There were plenty of positive developments in Winston-Salem, and it was difficult to decide on one Player of the Month. The Dash lapped the field in terms of OPS, leading the 12-team South Atlantic League; Winston-Salem’s OPS is .857, while Greensboro at No. 2 is quite a bit lower, at .788. By contrast, Winston-Salem’s ERA (5.17) was only 10th, but the offense largely carried the Dash to a comfortably winning record.

How did the Dash lead the league in OPS by such a wide margin? There are two people who deserve a special shout-out. Of course, we are familiar with Caleb Bonemer, 20, who plays third base and shortstop. Bonemer launched 11 homers en route to a 1.146 OPS, and he has shown no signs of slowing down since his breakout pro debut in 2025. Incredibly, however, he was not even the top Dash player in April. While Bonemer posted a 187 wRC+, Colby Shelton sits at 211! Shelton, 23, who plays second base and third base, simply could not be stopped. The White Sox selected Shelton last year in the sixth round, and he got off to a slow start with the Cannon Ballers. However, the infielder is already showing that he can handle a higher level than the one he struggled with in his first taste of professional baseball.

2026 Winston-Salem Dash Players of the Month
Colby Shelton (April)

Kannapolis Cannon Ballers
April record 8-16; Overall record 8-16

Cannon Ballers Player of the Month
Max Banks 2.25 ERA, 20 IP, 4 BB, 23 K

Stiven Flores .379/.438/.414, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 58 at-bats
Jaden Fauske .276/.415/.408, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 6-for-7 stolen bases, 76 at-bats
Billy Carlson .233/.359/.314, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 3-for-4 stolen bases, 86 at-bats
Ryan Galvan .244/.436/.610, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 41 at-bats
Javier Mogollón .238/.425/.381, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 9-for-10 stolen bases, 63 at-bats
Abraham Núñez .288/.350/.397, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 73 at-bats

Riley Eikhoff 5.82 ERA, 21 2/3 IP, 8 BB, 20 K
Caedmon Parker 4.12 ERA, 19 2/3 IP, 10 BB, 21 K
Jackson Nove 2.51 ERA, 14 1/3 IP, 8 BB, 27 K
Pierce George 1.54 ERA, 11 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 15 K

The Cannon Ballers had the coldest start out of any team in the organization, winning only one-third of their games. Out of 12 teams in the Carolina League, Kannapolis was 10th in OPS (.704), but was better on the other side, posting the fifth-best ERA (4.44).

Kannapolis starter Max Banks, 22, played a sizable role in the pitching staff’s strong performance. Banks was second on the pitching staff with 20 innings pitched, and he was very effective. Banks tallied 23 strikeouts while only issuing four walks. Incredibly, opposing hitters had a .360 BABIP against Banks, so he was not exactly lucking his way into those impressive numbers. Overall, he provided reliable innings in the rotation, and April was a big step in the right direction for Banks, who the White Sox drafted in the 14th round last year.

2026 Kannapolis Cannon Ballers Players of the Month
Max Banks (April)

Jacob Misiorowski avoided a major injury, and perhaps won't have to miss any time on the mound at all.

Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters Saturday, May 2 that he thinks Misiorowski's "going to be fine," some 15 hours after the right hamstring injury the right-hander suffered the night before, when he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning of the Brewers' 6-1 victory over the Washington Nationals.

Misiorowski, 24, was overpowering most of the night, striking out eight, retiring the last 11 batters he faced, averaging 101 mph on his fastball in the first inning and throwing 43 pitches between 100 and 103 mph. He did not know he had a no-hitter when he struck out the first batter of the sixth, and then, after throwing one pitch to leadoff hitter James Wood, motioned for a trainer to come out.

That sent a chill through the Brewers dugout – and the industry at large – given Misiorowski's high-velocity repertoire and the inherent risk involved. But the injury did not involve his golden arm.

Instead, he exited due to a barking hamstring, at least for the moment keeping the Brewers' extensive injury list a little lighter. Veteran right-hander Brandon Woodruff was placed on the IL with shoulder inflammation Friday, and the club is also awaiting the return of Quinn Priester, who is on a rehab assignment.

Yesterday could have been another disaster for the bullpen, with Zac Gallen only lasting 3.2 innings. But at least the Arizona relief corps were efficient. Particular credit to Brandyn Garcia, who made his season debut, and needed only twenty pitches to record six valuable outs. He, Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel required a total of 53 pitches while getting through 4.1 innings. That came after Gallen had labored to 95 pitches for 3.2 innings of work. That continued a nightmare run for the Arizona pitching staff. Here’s their line over the past ten games, since April 19:
D-backs starters: 39 IP, 67 H, 48 R, 48 ER, 9 HR, 24 BB, 33 K, 11.08 ERA

Across the same time-frame, no other team has a starter’s ERA worse than 5.79 (the Padres). Over the past two turns through the rotation, the D-backs have been more than five runs worse than anyone else. Over the same time, the bullpen hasn’t been great, with a 5.25 ERA. But there are actually half a dozen teams (including the Padres, actually) who have a higher ERA there. All told this year, the Arizona rotation is now more than half a run worse than the bullpen, with an ERA of 5.36 against 4.85. Right now, that’s the worst starter ERA in franchise history, surpassing the 5.20 figure posted during the terrible 2021 season. The bullpen figure is almost unchanged from last year’s 4.82.

Given this, it’s kinda remarkable the D-backs are still above .500 – albeit only just. The two other teams with an overall ERA above five are the Nationals (15-18) and the Astros (12-21). Both of them are actually scoring significantly more than Arizona as well: we are at 4.71 runs per game, while Washington is at 5.33 and Houston is at 5.12. Based on runs scored and allowed, the Diamondbacks “should” be at 13-18, the fourth-worst record in the majors. If things don’t turn around in the rotation, it won’t be long until that’s going to be closer to the team’s record than the current one.

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Exactly one week after the “Saturday night massacre” that saw Boston fire manager Alex Cora and five coaches, the Red Sox seem to be responding to the sudden change.

The Red Sox have won four of the six games since the decision was made, matching its best six-game mark of the season.  

Saturday is a rematch with the last-place Astros. My Astros at Red Sox predictions and MLB picks call for a Boston victory.

Who will win Astros vs Red Sox today: Red Sox moneyline (-140)

The Boston Red Sox fired all of their hitting coaches, but left the pitching side intact. Both moves have paid off. 

The Sox have a 2.60 ERA and 1.058 WHIP over the last week, (compared to 4.24 and 1.316 for the season). At the plate, Boston lifted its OPS by 100 points, to 11% over league average, compared to 13% under on the season.

The Houston Astros are hitting but haven’t gotten the clutch hit. In Friday’s series opener, the Astros hit .306 but went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position.

Over the last four games, Houston is hitting .318 but just .256 with RISP.

COVERS INTEL: The Astros have been even less clutch on the road, posting a stronger 126 OPS+ away from home but averaging fewer runs (4.94) than they do at home (5.31).

Astros vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-138)

They don’t have the name recognition of other pitchers on the respective staffs but Saturday’s starters have been the best Astro and Red Sox pitchers of the season over the first month-plus.

Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti and Boston’s Connelly Early each have the highest WAR on their team’s pitching staffs.

Arrighetti has won all three of his starts and posted a 2.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP. He’s given up just one home run over 18 innings. Early has a 2.84 ERA and 1.200 WHIP.

He’s won two of his last three starts. Both pitchers will be facing offenses still trying to find their way.

Astros vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Houston +113 | Boston -117
• Run line: Houston +1.5 (-170) | Boston -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+122) | Under 9.5 (-127)

Astros vs Red Sox trend

The Houston Astros have only hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 24 games (-14.70 Units / -50% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Astros vs Red Sox and game info

Astros vs Red Sox latest injuries

Astros vs Red Sox weather

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A series win would nice.

George Springer is in the leadoff spot again. And no Andrés Giménez. It is against a lefty.

Go Jays Go

1901
The White Sox were part of the first forfeit in American League history. After the Detroit Tigers took a lead with five runs in the top of the ninth, rain began. White Sox players began stalling, hoping to have the game wash out and be called as of the last full inning played (the eighth), with the White Sox getting the win.

Umpire Tom Connolly caught on to the scheme and forfeited the game to Detroit, as soggy Sox fans stormed the field in protest. The final score was 7-5, Tigers, as Connolly had to be given a police escort to get out of the ballpark. 

1907
The defending World Champion White Sox knocked off the Tigers in Detroit, 4-2, to ascend to first place, where they would stay until August 6. Nick Altrock spun the complete-game win, and was also a hitting star, with two singles and a walk in the win.

The White Sox flirted with first through the rest of August, but wouldn’t return to the top spot after August 25. With a final record of 87-64-6, Chicago finished in third place, 5 1⁄2 games out.

1919
In what remains the latest non-pandemic home opener in White Sox history, the 6-1 South Siders dropped their first game of the season at Comiskey Park, 11-4. The 1-5 Browns ran up a 6-0 lead through six batting outs, and held on. The White Sox remained in first place, however, and would win the AL pennant in this truncated, 140-game season.

There were several reasons for the delayed and shortened 1919 seasons, starting with the fact that World War I had just ended the previous November, and a later start gave players returning from service more time to round into shape. Additionally, MLB also anticipated a poor season at the gate.

The White Sox season had opened at St. Louis, with an 13-4 win, on April 23.

1984
It was the finest regular season performance of LaMarr Hoyt’s career, as he one-hit the New York Yankees in a 3-0 win at Comiskey Park. The reigning Cy Young winner lost his no-hit bid with one out in the seventh inning, as first baseman Don Mattingly tapped a a wind-aided, bloop single that fell between shortstop Jerry Dybzinski and left fielder Ron Kittle.

Hoyt only threw 101 pitches on the night and faced the minimum 27 batters.

Also notable in this game was that lefthander Mike Squires, a first baseman, started and played the first half of the win at third base; it’s believed he was the first southpaw to start at third base since 1936. He had no chances in the first five innings, after which he crossed the diamond to finish the game at first base.

1992
Just two years after creating the innovative Old Timers’ Day promotion that reverberates to this day, the White Sox paid tribute to the Negro Leagues by donning Chicago American Giants caps during their 4-1 loss to Texas in 11 innings. The Giants used Comiskey Park as their home grounds from 1941-50.

The event was a full-blown Negro Leagues reunion, inviting scores of living Negro Leagues players, including Minnie Miñoso, Buck O’Neill, Ernie Banks, Sam Jethroe, Double Duty Radcliffe, Gene Benson, Joe Black, Col. Jimmie Crutchfield, Claro Duany, Frank Duncan III, Perry Hall, Buster Haywood, Connie Johnson, Lester Lockett, Butch McCord, Marvin Price, Clyde McNeal, and Mule Miles.

White Sox players contributed $19,750 to go toward the care of the aged former players, with White Sox ownership matching that total for a total donation to the Baseball Assistance Team of $39,500. Tim Raines presented the check, while many White Sox (including Bobby Thigpen, Carlton Fisk, Ozzie Guillén, Lance Johnson and Carlton Fisk) listened to the players’ stories and posed for photos.

The White Sox later wore full Chicago American Giants uniforms in tribute, in 2007, 2008 and 2011.

2021
Seasons can change in a heartbeat, and on this day the high expectations for the White Sox took a stunning turn for the worse. Five-tool outfielder Luis Robert Jr., the Gold Glove outfielder and runner-up in the 2020 Rookie of the Year voting, completely tore his right hip flexor when running out a ground ball in the first inning in a 5-0 loss to Cleveland.

The White Sox were already without the services of Robert’s teammate Eloy Jiménez, one of the top young sluggers in the game, because of an injury that happened late in Spring Training. Robert wasn’t even able to try to resume baseball activities for a period of a few months.

His loss left a gaping hole both offensively and defensively in the White Sox lineup, but remarkably after a grueling rehab he returned to the team on August 9 in Minnesota and helped contribute to the club winning the Central Division with a total of 93 victories.

Robert’s bad injury luck continued into the 2022 season when he missed time with vertigo, blurred vision and worst of all, a sprained left wrist that never properly healed and was so bad at times he was swinging a bat one-handed.

2022
Dylan Cease became the second White Sox pitcher ever with a start of seven innings-plus, 11 or more Ks and just one hit, with no runs or walks. Kurt Suzuki broke up Cease’s no-hitter with a leadoff single in the eighth inning of a 3-0 win in Chicago. Leigh Allan had South Side Sox coverage of the game.

Gary Peters was the first White Sox hurler to accomplish this feat, on July 15, 1963.

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The Padres have dropped three consecutive games for the first time this season.

With their offense heating up at home, my White Sox vs. Padres predictions see them getting back in the win column Saturday.

Let’s break down my daily MLB picks for May 2.

Who will win White Sox vs Padres today: Padres moneyline (-190)

The San Diego Padres have feasted on right-handed pitching at home over the past month, hitting .269 with a .814 OPS and .357 wOBA – all Top-7 marks.

They should cause problems for Sean Burke, whose ERA is nearly a full run below his FIP thus far. That’s a red flag.

While Burke has limited quality contact, he doesn’t miss many bats, which could get him into trouble against this lineup.

The Padres did real damage at home in April, finishing fifth in total hits and seventh in homers per at bat.

COVERS INTEL: Sean Burkes ranks in the 32nd percentile in expected batting average allowed.

White Sox vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 8.0 (-104)

Burke has done a better job of limiting hard contact but his home run to fly ball rate is only ~62% of his career average, a sign some regression could be coming. 

The Padres rank 10th in HR/FB vs. righties over the last month and eighth at home, making them a real test for Burke.

On the other side, Padres starter Michael King ranks in the 32nd percentile in barrel suppression. The Chicago White Sox sit ninth in homers and fifth in ISO vs. righties on the road so they have the power to capitalize.

White Sox vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Chicago (+160) | San Diego (-190)
• Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-125) | San Diego -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-105) | Under 8.0 (-115)

White Sox vs Padres trend

The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.55 Units / 39% ROI).Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Padres.

How to watch White Sox vs. Padres and game info

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The Yankees got a positive update on Saturday regarding slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who's currently on the 10-day injured list with a low-grade calf strain.

Stanton told YES Network's Meredith Marakovits that his right calf is improving as he took swings in the batting cage Friday and will again on Saturday. 

He will also be working out in the pool on Saturday and is encouraged by the progress he's made so far in his recovery, he told Marakovits.

Stanton was placed on the 10-day IL on April 27, as manager Aaron Boone expressed optimism that he wouldn't miss too much time.

"Doesn't look too serious, but enough to not want to wait a couple more days," Boone said. "We'll see what we have as the week unfolds -- hopefully not too long, but we'll see."

Over 24 games (90 at-bats) this season, Stanton is hitting .276 and owns a .724 OPS with three home runs, six doubles, and 14 RBI.

With Luis Gil back at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Elmer Rodríguez not exactly dealing in his MLB debut, some of the muddied water around returning Yankee starters has begun to clear. Still, after Will Warren’s excellent outing last night in the win over Baltimore, Ryan Weathers is tasked with holding serve in his own start today, and in fairness to him he’s putting together a nice little run.

Making his seventh start of the year, Weathers has made one truly bad outing against the Angels, but everything else has varied between serviceable to very good, including a combined 12.1 innings allowing two runs against the Astros and Royals since that debacle at the hands of the Halos. I feel like there’s still another level to Weathers though, and maybe that comes in the rotation, maybe it comes deployed as a five-out-reliever-type. The better each successive start goes, the more I’m going to believe in the former.

Orioles starter Kyle Bradish, meanwhile, is all about the walks. The righty is issuing free passes to 12.5 percent of batters faced, leading to a paltry 10.3 percent K-BB rate, my personal favorite pitching stat. The Yankees have the second-highest walk rate in the game, and there have been points this year where I’ve wondered if they’re actually too passive, but against a hurler like Bradish you can see why they’d be willing to work counts.

Offensively, the lineup reverts back to its normal form against righties. Paul Goldschmidt is back on the bench, Ben Rice is at first batting second, and Ryan McMahon gets the start at third base. Jasson Domínguez will be your DH today, back in the starting nine with a clean bill of health on his elbow after an injury scare in Texas.

How to watch

Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY

First pitch: 1:35 pm ET

TV broadcast: YES | MASN

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280, 98 Rock 97.9 FM, WBAL 1090 AM

Online stream: MLB.tv

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J.T. Realmuto returns from IL, Garrett Stubbs survives as utility man originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

MIAMI – The Phillies reinstated catcher J.T. Realmuto from the injured list and made an adjustment to their bench before Saturday’s game against the Miami Marlins.

Realmuto’s return meant someone had to be subtracted from the 26-man roster. The subtraction turned out to be seldom-used utility man Dylan Moore, who was designated for assignment. With Moore gone, Garrett Stubbs remains with the club in the role of utility man.

Stubbs, who had come up from Triple A to serve as the backup catcher when Realmuto was sidelined with back spasms on April 22, was immediately pressed into outfield duty Saturday. He started in left field when Justin Crawford was scratched with a migraine moments before first pitch. The Phils’ outfield had already been short with Brandon Marsh nursing a sore right elbow after being hit by a pitch Friday night. With Crawford out, manager Don Mattingly moved Adolis Garcia from right field to center field and Felix Reyes from left field to right.

Stubbs was the Phillies’ primary backup catcher from 2022 to 2024. He spent most of last season at Triple A Lehigh Valley and returned there again this season. In addition to catching, Stubbs played some third base and left field at Triple A. He also saw some time at those positions in spring training. Earlier in his career, he played some second base.

With a third catcher on the roster, Mattingly will feel comfortable using Realmuto as a pinch-hitter on days he’s not in the starting lineup.

“I like the thought of the three catchers,” Mattingly said. “It allows a little bit more freedom with pinch-hitting and pinch-running. Stubby’s not a traditional catcher that can’t do anything else. He can play second, he can play third, he can play left, he actually runs, he can steal a bag. He’s a good baserunner, a good bunter. All the things that role brings, we feel pretty good about Stubby doing it.”

Stubbs feared he’d be the one let go when Realmuto returned. He got a welcome surprise when he arrived at the ballpark Saturday.

“I had Saturday marked on my calendar, knowing that was the day J.T. would be back,” he said. “I was able to take a deep breath when Donnie told me and I knew I’d be on the roster.”

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The Seattle Mariners have piled up the runs at home lately, plating at least four runs in five of their last six games at T-Mobile Park. 

My Royals vs. Mariners predictions expect the offense to give Seth Lugo plenty of trouble as they pull out the win. 

Let’s dive deeper into my latest MLB picks for Saturday, May 2.

Who will win Royals vs Mariners today: Mariners (-140)

Although the Seattle Mariners have been inconsistent this season, their offense has been a clear strength at home, specifically against right-handed pitchers.

Seattle currently ranks second against righties in wRC+ at home, trailing only Detroit.  

Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo will struggle to slow Seattle’s offense. He is sitting in the 18th percentile in whiff rate and is struggling to miss bats, leading to a lot of contact. Lugo also ranks in the 26th percentile in expected batting average.

The M's offense is set up for a productive outing tonight.

COVERS INTEL: The Mariners rank second in line drive rate against righties at home, hitting them 22.1% of the time.

Royals vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-110)

Lugo’s underlying profile screams regression. He owns a 3.91 xFIP, 4.31 xERA, and has allowed homers on only 2.4% of his flyballs, not even a quarter of his career rate (11.7%).

On the other side, Emerson Hancock has stranded 95.4% of opposing baserunners. That has made his ERA more flattering than it should be. For reference, his previous marks were 71.2% as a rookie and 72.2% last season. 

With some red flags on both sides, this matchup sets up well for the offenses.

Royals vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Kansas City (+120) | Seattle (-140)
• Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-170) | Seattle -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Royals vs Mariners trend

Seattle has cashed the moneyline in 34 of its last 50 home games (+11.80 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Mariners.

How to watch Royals vs Mariners and game info

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First Pitch: 1:10 pm CDT
TV: Twins.TV
Radio: TIBN / WCCO 830 / The Wolf 102.9 FM / Audacy

This week, I had free tickets to my first two Target Field games of the year, the deflating Tuesday night loss against the Seattle Mariners, and the series-opening victory against these very same Toronto Blue Jays. I wish I could say that the in-person experience revitalized my faith in the team, but after enduring the loss in less-than-ideal weather conditions on Tuesday night, I opted to skip an even colder Thursday game. They wound up winning without me, which makes it feel like I went 0-for-2 anyway.

This series is split at a game apiece, with the Blue Jays earning a convincing win on Friday night, in a game that wanted for some cleaner defense by Minnesota. To tip the scales, the Jays are sending out Known Good Pitcher Dylan Cease; the Twins are sending Supposed Good Pitcher Connor Prielipp.

It’s the third big-league start for Prielipp, who’s been impressive so far against the Met and Mariner lineups. The Jays are yet another challenge; Prielipp has to be hoping for an Angels outing or something in the near future. Last time out, Prielipp threw five one-hit frames and walked three while en route to his first big-league win.

Cease is well-known to the Twins, although this will be their first matchup with the mustachioed right-hander donning a Toronto uniform. After two trips around the baseball calendar with the San Diego Padres, the former White Sox ace is in the first of seven seasons north of the border.

GO TWINS GO!

There has been a lot Andrew Painter has seen over their first month in the big leagues. He joined a contending team that got off to an uneven 8-8 start, then lost ten straight, and one of the greatest managers in the history of the franchise got sacked not even 30 games into the season. It’s a lot.

While all of this is happening around Painter, he has made five big league appearances, four of them starts and the other a relief appearance because he had a migraine. The results have been a bit mixed, and he probably shouldn’t have faced Michael Harris II in Atlanta. That decision from Rob Thomson might’ve gotten him fired. Again, it’s a lot.

Through all of that, here is what we know about how Caleb Cotham and the Phillies are trying to use Painter.

The arsenal

One of the biggest differences in how Painter pitched in AAA last season and what he is doing in the Majors this year is how he is platooning his arsenal.

The first big changes are actually how he’s attacking right handed hitters. His sinker against righties has jumped from roughly 6% to 31% in the majors and is his primary fastball against them. He has been exclusively throwing it on the inner-third of the plate to keep hitters honest.

This jump has sacrificed the four-seam usage to right-handed hitters and the hard slider. Painter did throw what was considered a cutter last year along with a hard slider, but some of this could be pitches bleeding into each other and the usage makes it seem that way. He threw those offerings roughly 32% of the time to righties and his four-seam 40% of the time.

He has cut his four-seam fastball down to 28% against right-handed hitters so far and the slider usage went down to 14%. He is working an east-west combination with the sinker in and using sliders and sweepers away for chase.

The approach to left handed hitters has surprisingly been similar but some of this could be how the Phillies want to use his arsenal.

There has been a lot of discussion about Andrew Painter’s four-seam fastball shape, even from our site. Look, it’s not the high back-spin whiff machine that was promised pre-Tommy John surgery and it’s generally getting hit hard, especially from right-handed hitters.

But there is still a way to use it effectively against lefties. His fastball only gets 3.2 inches of arm-side movement on average but compared to what hitters are used to seeing, he is sort of cutting the pitch. So, the Phillies have been asking him to throw it glove-side or inside to lefties.

He is also doing a good job of backdooring the slider for called strikes and working a tunnel with his split-change, which is getting a 36.8% whiff rate against left-handed hitters. He has flipped some curveballs for strikes and has shown the ability to get chase.

Adjustments moving forward

The general results for Painter’s first 24 big league innings have been fine. The ERA is high at 5.25 but his FIP is sitting at 3.34 because he isn’t walking a lot of hitters and other ERA estimators are hovering close to four. He is not getting a lot of whiffs or strikeouts but probably has the capacity to do so moving forward.

There have to be adjustments to how he attacks right-handed hitters because he is allowing a .343 average with a .929 OPS. It’s not good enough especially given some of his secondary pitches.

The first big change is to cut back on the four-seam fastball usage. It is working enough against lefties but righties are crushing it. They have an average exit velocity of 94.4 mph on the pitch and are hitting .400 on the offering. He has not allowed an extra-base hit in this sample, but the quality of his contact is concerning and he isn’t getting nearly enough whiffs to justify it.

Some of the usage will have to go into the sinker because he needs something to throw strikes with and that might be fine. His average exit velocity allowed on the sinker is down 10 mph against righties compared to the four-seam fastball. He could also try and steal more strikes with the curveball if there are some worries about not throwing enough strikes.

The slider and sweeper usage probably have to increase because he is not getting enough strikeouts against righties. His slider has a 57.1% whiff rate against righties and the sweeper is at 35.7%, throwing those pitches a bit more should help increase his strikeout rate.

There are issues with this, Painter has not shown amazing command of his arsenal yet, so things are tricky. Also, platooning down his arsenal might make him more predictable moving forward. It’s a tricky balance.

There are some good ideas for Painter but there is still a lot that the club has to figure out. There is a promising pitcher here, with some encouraging signs that should be in for a solid rookie campaign.

The Orioles filled up the transaction board as they prepared for today’s game against the Yankees. Baltimore added fresh arms to the bullpen by activating Dietrich Enns and Nick Raquet. To make room, the O’s optioned Tyler Wells and designated Albert Suárez for assignment.

Enns is back from the injured list after suffering a left-foot infection while in Pittsburgh. He last pitched on April 3. Raquet made two appearances for Baltimore earlier in the season and failed to make a strong first impression.

The Orioles also added top pitching prospect Trey Gibson to the taxi squad. MLB Pipeline’s Jake Rill recently reported that Gibson will make his MLB debut tomorrow.

Kyle Bradish will get the start today as the Orioles look to even the four-game series. This feels like a big game for early May. Baltimore currently sits two games below .500 (15-17) and six games below the first place Yankees.

Taylor Ward will leadoff and play left field. Gunnar Henderson will follow at shortstop, and Adley Rutschman will catch Bradish. Pete Alonso will slot into the DH spot, which will provide Coby Mayo a chance to play first base. Tyler O’Neill and will take the other outfield corner, and Blaze Alexander will play center field. Jeremiah Jackson (second base) and Weston Wilson (third) will round out the infield.

The O’s are sending seven righties and one switch hitter out to face Yankees lefty Ryan Weathers. Weathers is 1-2 with a 3.21 ERA.

Orioles lineup:

1. Taylor Ward LF
2. Gunnar Henderson SS
3. Adley Rutschman C
4. Pete Alonso DH
5. Tyler O’Neill RF
6. Coby Mayo 1B
7. Jeremiah Jackson 2B
8. Weston Wilson 3B
9. Blaze Alexander CF

Starter: RHP Kyle Bradish