Category: MLB

Ralphy Velazquez is playing his first Triple-A game as this post is published.

Since 2017, the best hitters with 200 or more plate appearances at Double-A’s Eastern League at 20 years old or younger, are:

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. – 171 wRC+, 10.2/7.9 K/BB%, 11.6 Swinging Str. %, 38/43 Fly/Pull ball %
Kevin McGonigle – 162 wRC+, 12.6/16 K/BB%, 7.9 Swinging Str. %, 35/42 FB/PB %
Ezequiel Tovar – 153 wRC+, 21.7/8.5 K/BB%, 15.2 Swinging Str. % 39/39 FB/PB %
Rafael Devers – 150 wRC+, 17.2/9.7 K/BB%, 10.6 Swinging Str. % 35/42 FB/PB %
Francisco Alvarez – 150 wRC+, 24/12.2 K/BB%, 16.1 Swinging Str. %, 45/53 FB/PB %
Riley Greene – 143 wRC+, 27.3/11 K/BB%, 11.7 Swinging Str. %, 30/37 FB/PB %

By comparison, during his time as a 20 year-old at Double-A:
Ralphy Velazquez: 171 wRC+, 17/12 K/BB%, 11.9 Swinging Str. %, 34/34 FB/PB %

It’s official. We have 90% of Vladimir Guerrero. Bring him up and let’s ride.

In all seriousness, Velazquez has more to prove, of course, now that he’s been called up to Triple-A. He should work on pulling the ball more than he does and attempt to add some lift, if possible. But, folks, we cannot sell short how exciting of a hitter he is. At the age of 20, he is showing advanced professional skill against the much more advanced pitching of Double-A. IF (big “if”) he can keep some semblance of this up now that he is in Columbus, this should begin to look like a top 20 to top 10 prospect in MLB, even if limited to first base. You can see above that being an excellent hitter at Double-A at 19-20 does not make becoming a major league all-star hitter a sure thing… but it’s about as close as you can get.

Should Ralphy play in Cleveland at some point this summer? That will be entirely determined by whether or not he is able to continue to perform well against Triple-A pitching. If so… then I would guess he is going to force the issue in September when rosters expand. Should (knock on wood) any injuries come into play affecting first base/DH, he could get an earlier opportunity, also. This is an exceptionally talented hitter and Guardians fans should be excited.

In baseball, rarely does everything unfold as expected. The unpredictability of baseball is one of its gifts as well as one of its most confounding aspects. The Seattle Mariners were widely believed to be the cream of the AL West crop, projected to win well over 90 games. Who thought they would sit 4 games under .500 and that Cal Raleigh, on Memorial Day, would be on the IL sitting on 1/3 of a season batting .161/.243/.317 with 7 HR?

Projection system were not in love with the A’s rotation, ranking it near the bottom going into the season. Here’s how it is shaping up as we fast approach the 1/3 mark — significant because it’s traditionally when front offices take a hard look at their team and make changes if need be.

Health: Let’s not overlook, with relief, how the A’s starting pitchers have stayed healthy. They opened the season with Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Aaron Civale, Jacob Lopez, and Luis Morales and none has had to miss a turn, or go to the IL. Morales was replaced by JT Ginn who, despite a brief scare, was able to make his next start and is only getting better.

Now onto performance…

Luis Severino

In a way, Severino has been about as expected: flashing plus stuff, very inconsistent, high pitch/inning counts and high walk totals, prone to giving up runs in flurries, sometimes brilliant.

The A’s may have paid for a front of the rotation SP but what they have is also valuable, just not as valuable, and that is a #4 SP whose 4.45 ERA approximates how he has performed.

Expectations going forward: Probably more of the same as this has been Severino much of his career since his hey days of 2017 and 2018.

Jeffrey Springs

Springs started like gangbusters, hit a rough patch, and then gave the A’s an excellent start against the Giants his last time out. Overall he has pitched like he did in 2025: terrific on the road, less so at home. Springs’ away ERA this season is 3.04 whereas at home, where he has given up 6 of his 8 HRs, it balloons to 4.60.

Expectations going forward: Springs will generally give you a chance to win, but will also require a fair amount of bullpen support as he averages between 5-6 innings/start. Like Severino, Springs is a luxury to have as your #4 SP — and you are pushing your luck to ask him to be more.

He’s also a good one to push back a day if it means starting a road trip instead of finishing a home stand — though unfortunately, Severino’s and Ginn’s struggles at home make it hard to do any clever manipulating.

Aaron Civale

Civale has been great. Using a wide variety of pitches and mixing them up to keep hitters off balance, he has been everything the A’s could have asked for and more. Civale’s 2.70 ERA would rank 7th in the AL if he had enough innings to qualify (he barely misses but will qualify after tonight’s start assuming he lasts at least 2.1 IP).

However, Civale’s success does come with a caveat: all the underlying metrics suggest he is due for a big regression. His xERA is 4.38, his xFIP 4.66, his K rate just 6.75/9 IP. Civale needs to be very fine with his location and he has mostly been so far. He has also been unsustainably terrific with runners on base, stranding 90.3%, far above his career rate of 74.5%.

Expectations going forward: Take nothing away from what Civale has done, but you have to expect some rougher times ahead just naturally from a pitcher whose results so far have greatly exceeded the predicted outcomes.

Jacob Lopez

Ruh roh. What to do with Lopez. Has he pitched his way out of the rotation after failing to complete the 4th inning when staked to a 6-0 lead? As good as Lopez was in 2025 he has been bad in 2026.

The stats which pop out, besides his unsightly 6.14 ERA, are 30 BB in 44 IP and a K rate that has plummeted from 10.97 last season 6.55 this season. Lopez is a mess and while he was given more rope than Morales you have to wonder if the A’s will continue to trot him out every 5th day.

Expectations going forward: With the dreaded 1/3 mark upon us, figure the A’s will shake things up in some way either moving Lopez to the bullpen, where he can compete with Jose Suarez for “lefty who scares you, not opponents, when he is summoned, or to AAA (Lopez has one remaining option). Maybe the A’s just ”stay the course” a while longer with Lopez in the rotation, but don’t count on it as he’s been über-shaky for a long stretch now.

Luis Morales

Morales was terrible in spring training, worse to start the season, and was quickly demoted to AAA — where if it’s even possible, he pitched even worse yet.

Only in his last 3 appearances (out of the bullpen) has Morales started to right the ship a bit, and it’s really more “he hasn’t been terrible”: 4 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. It has brought his AAA season ERA down to 9.72 with 24 hits in 16.2 IP, 6 of them HRs, along with 13 BB.

Expectations going forward: Morales is still in the A’s future plans, but 2026 might wind up being a “get right” season. I wouldn’t look for a call up to Sacramento any time soon.

JT Ginn

We all know what Ginn did his last start. What’s less obvious is how solid he has been in aggregate, posting a 2.97 ERA. Is it for real? It may just be.

The key is that Ginn has finally figured out how to get LH batters out. Here’s the comparison between 2025 and 2026:

LH batters in 2025: .340/.416/.630, 10 HR in 38 IP

LH batters in 2026: .233/.331/.398, 4 HR in 27.1 IP

That’s worth a “Fosse wow” right there. What hasn’t shifted as much is the huge home/away splits where Ginn, after his no-hit bid, holds a 1.67 ERA on the road but a 5.21 ERA at home.

Expectations going forward: Ginn has historically had trouble staying healthy, but if the arm holds up the A’s might have themselves a gem who has figured out how to leverage his stuff — and with that you can expect that so long as LH batters don’t pose a huge issue for him, the home performance will improve and the home/away splits will move closer to one another.

Overall: The A’s don’t have a lot of SPs who get deep into games — only Ginn has really shown that strength — and there really aren’t front of the rotation arms there unless you buy into Ginn as an emerging staff leader. It’s kind of a “5.1 IP, 2 or 3 ER” group waiting for the arrival of an exciting young arm attached to Gage Jump or Wei-En Lin.

What would you like to see the A’s do, at the 1/3 mark, with this rotation, given who they have in MLB, who they have at AAA, and what the trade market looks like as we head towards trading season? No easy answers here, just an AL West that currently would require only 81 wins to get fitted for a crown.

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The Milwaukee Brewers can complete a sweep of the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday night and we like their chances to do so. 

Here are my Brewers vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for May 20.

Who will win Brewers vs Cubs today: Brewers ML (+104)

The matchup screams Milwaukee Brewers again. They now have the lowest whiff rate in the sport and a 26% chase rate, also bottom of the league, and that contact-first profile is a problem for Edward Cabrera. 

Cabrera's chase rate is elite, but Brewers hitters don't expand, which forces his game plan into the zone where his stuff plays down. When that happens, his bottom-40 % barrel rate and poor expected ERA come into play.

On the other side, Kyle Harrison has more than enough stuff to slow the Chicago Cubs. I’d play the Brewers to -120.

COVERS INTEL: Edward Cabrera's fastball run value sits in the 10th percentile.

Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (-115)

It's a small number, but Wrigley winds loom large again. Gusts could reach up to 25 mph, along with temperatures in the 50s. Thus, before you even get to the handicap, this is the biggest story.

Now, when you think about Kyle Harrison, it gets clearer. His hard hits will suppress ball carry even further, as they sit in the 94th percentile of the sport.

In addition, Cabrera, despite his hard-contact issues, owns a 93rd percentile offspeed run value that helps mitigate damage when the changeup is working. I wouldn't play this past 6.5, but it's good to -125.

Brewers vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Brewers +100 | Cubs -120
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 | Cubs +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5

Brewers vs Cubs trend

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs.

How to watch Brewers vs Cubs and game info

Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries

Brewers vs Cubs weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Well, Mariners fans, I’d be lying if I told you this season was off to an ideal start, or even a good start, or even an average start. At least then they’d be above .500. The team has struggled in all aspects with performance and injuries including, but not limited to, Brendan Donovan, Cal Raleigh, Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, Victor Robles, Carlos Vargas, and Logan Evans. This has led to a variety of patchwork lineups and stopgap fixes in the hopes that they will all return sooner rather than later, and the Mariners’ record has suffered for it.

Despite these issues, the Mariners have had quite a bright spot this year in the form of longtime organization Quad-A player Emerson Hancock. Hancock has had his fair share of pots of coffee, but this most recent one seems to have stuck. Hancock has dominated teams throughout the AL to start the season, posting an impressive 3.02/3.64 ERA/FIP alongside a very solid WHIP of 1.01. It’s come thanks to the absence of poor old Bryce Miller, who has been suffering at the hands of repeated elbow issues since last season. But Miller is now back and healthy, and everyone looks around awkwardly, as it seems Hancock has displaced him. The Mariners reacted with a temporary six-man rotation to test things out, resisting the urge to displace Luis Castillo or Emerson Hancock right away.

Now the Mariners have run this rotation for a week and, with more feedback, have progressed to “piggybacking” Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo together on Tuesday night. While the Mariners ended up walking out with the loss, Miller looked pretty good in his 5 innings, and Castillo seemed serviceable in his two and a third. Jerry Dipoto has already expressed resistance to moving either to the bullpen full-time, as he told reporters recently:

“If you go to the bullpen, you don’t maintain your pitch volume for very long. And that’s the worst thing that could happen to the depth of our starting rotation is taking one of our top six starting pitchers, send them to the bullpen, and then 10 days later, their pitch volume is no longer a factor.”

It’s looking unlikely that either will have an extended stay in the bullpen, so now we have to ask ourselves: should the Mariners run a six-man rotation for the rest of the year? Let us know what you think via the poll and comments below.

Of course, they don’t have to run six men, but if they don’t, then who is the odd man out? Presumably, barring sudden injury (knock on wood), it could be any one of Hancock, Castillo, or Miller. Personally, I think it’s extremely likely that Castillo is moved to mostly long relief/piggyback starts, with the hope they can trade him later this season. Obviously, if they switch him to a full-time reliever, he loses value, as much value as a starter with a 6 ERA can have anyway, so the idea would be to keep him stretched out and available for spot starts and the like until such a time as he can be moved on. But let us know what you think, answer the poll, and leave comments below on your thoughts!

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Mariners fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Baseball players dream of a two-homer game.

How about a two-homer inning?

Mississippi State outfielder Vytas Valincius lived that dream Wednesday in Hoover, as the Bulldogs rolled in their 2026 SEC Tournament debut 12-2 over Missouri, advancing to tomorrow’s Quarterfinals against top-seeded Georgia.

And Valincius did his damage to break open what was a two-run game.

The Mississippi State outfielder came to the plate to leadoff the bottom of the sixth inning, with the Bulldogs leading 4-2. He attacked the first pitch he saw, a 91-mph fastball over the heart of the plate, and quickly deposited that fastball over both walls in left field:

The blast also set a new single-season record for team home runs at Mississippi State:

But Valincius was just getting started in the sixth, and that new program record would grow soon enough.

Because the Bulldogs batted around in the inning, bringing Valincius to the dish again in the sixth with a pair of runners on the bases.

This time, Valincius homered on a blast to straight-away center:

By the time the inning ended, Mississippi State had a 12-2 inning thanks to an eight-run sixth, and the Bulldogs recorded three outs in the seventh to complete the win via the run rule.

Now the Bulldogs face … the Bulldogs on Thursday, with a spot in the SEC baseball tournament Semifinals on the line.

We’ll see what Valincius has up his sleeves tomorrow.

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After swapping first place in the NL West over the first two games, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres play the rubber match of their series in San Diego. The Dodgers are up by half a game and will send Shohei Ohtani to the mound.

The Padres counter with Randy Vasquez, who is having a breakout year but may not match up well. My Dodgers vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks call for the Dodgers to tighten their hold on first place with a win.

Who will win Dodgers vs Padres today: Dodgers -1.5 (+100)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have their Cy Young candidate set to throw.Shohei Ohtani is in the Top 2% in pitching, fastball, and breaking ball value and has an ERA and WHIP below 1.00.

He's also back in the lineup after being held out in recent starts. He’s 10 for his last 19 with 21 total bases and 10 RBI.

The San Diego Padres start Randy Vasquez (5-1, 2.68 ERA), with career-best rates in several statistics. His swing and misses are up, but he’s allowing solid contact more often than in past seasons, a danger against this L.A. lineup.

COVERS INTEL: Randy Vasquez has added more than a mph to his fastball and sinker velocities, and opponents haven’t caught up. Still, they’re hitting .364 against his cutter and .300 against his curve, both up significantly from last year. Plus, the Dodgers have four batters (Ohtani, Hernandez, Muncy, Tucker) in MLB’s Top 40 against either the sinker or four-seamer.

Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+100)

Vasquez is getting batters to swing and miss, but when they make contact, they drive the ball. He’s in MLB’s bottom quartile in average exit velocity allowed, as well as hard-hit and barrel rate.

The Dodgers have four batters in MLB’s Top 40 in barrel rate, four in the Top 50 in hard-hit percentage, and three in the Top 40 in average exit velo. Blowing it past them seems like a shaky prospect.

Ohtani has been lights out on the mound for the Dodgers this year, but L.A. used five relievers for 66 total pitches on Tuesday. San Diego’s pen is even more fatigued after they used five for 78 pitches.

Dodgers vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -163 | Padres +156
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) | Padres +1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-102) | Under 7.5 (-118)

Dodgers vs Padres trend

The Dodgers have covered the run line in 24 of their last 40 road games for +9.25 units and a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.

How to watch Dodgers vs Padres and game info

Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries

Dodgers vs Padres weather

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The Seattle Mariners announced Wednesday morning that they have activated RHP Matt Brash off the 15 day injured list, where he’d been healing from inflammation in his right lat. Correspondingly, LHP Robinson Ortiz was optioned back to Triple-A Tacoma. Brash made a pair of rehab assignments with the Rainiers, having been out since the first of May.

It’s a huge relief to see Brash back in close to the minimum needed time. The righty was sharp in the first month of the season, helping quell threats and bridging the gap between starters and closer Andrés Muñoz. Since Brash went down, Seattle has had to lean on some of their less-heralded options in the pen, and to their credit they’ve largely stepped up. Jose Ferrer has been sterling, while Alex Hoppe, Cooper Criswell, Domingo Gonzalez, and Nick Davila have been quite effective, albeit in mostly low-leverage usage. However, extended usage and thinness among the more trusted arms has likely contributed to seeing some M’s starters left in long enough to blemish their numbers. Brash’s return also may take some heat off Eduard Bazardo, who has been taxed heavily over the past, well, year and a half.

Ortiz will sadly have to wait even longer for his first big league moment. The 26 year old southpaw has been a professional baseball player for 10 years and got to spend Tuesday night as a big leaguer at last. For his sake, hopefully the southpaw merits another opportunity to turn his spectral cup of coffee into one with genuine form.

If there was one player mentioned more than most this past offseason, it was Jarren Duran. As a trade candidate.

The thinking was, supposedly, simple: too many outfielders

Roman Anthony is set to be on the Red Sox forever. He’s a capable corner guy. There’s not a completing reason to move him to first base or DH as he turns 22.

Ceddanne Rafaela is the best centerfielder in baseball. He’s staying.

And Wilyer Abreu? He’s coming off a Gold Glove 2025 and was acquired for half a season of Christian Vazquez (thanks for everything, 2018 etc., but also that was a steal!).

Which brings us back to Duran.

He had an All-Star 2024, including winning the ASG MVP. He slashed .285/.342/.492 and was a 21 homer/34 steal guy.

2025 was a step back to 16/24 with a .256/.332/.442 line.

But there were trades for pitchers, first base, third base, and no move of Duran. He was to be slotted in as the left fielder, part-time DH, and center field replacement when Rafaela was out of the lineup.

And he started the season brutally. Remember his initial callup in 2021? The rough times? He posted a .578 OPS. in 2022. It wasn’t until 2023 that he played 100 games in the majors. This time he was better: an OPS of.828 and a sign of the big 2024 yet to come! But in 2026, even after Tuesday’s game, Duran is sitting on an OPS of .593. That’s part of a .189/.262/.331 line with 5 homers and 10 stolen bases. He’s on pace for around a 16 and 30 season. That’s pretty close to his 2025 output, though he’s way down on doubles with just 8 in 43 games.

After a tw0-hit Opening Day, Duran’s slash line was .400 across the board. Combined with four walks over the first four games of 2026 and his OBP was tacked up high for a while even as the slump would begin. Duran would walk just two more times during Alex Cora’s stint as manager.

While it is nearly Memorial Day, we are still early enough in the season that one good day can make change. Duran would fall down to a .162 batting average during the first game of the Yankees first visit of the season to Fenway Park. He’d get three hit the next day and soar to .194. Then with another three hit day, this time against the Tigers in Detroit, he’d climb all the way to .203. His first time above the Mendoza Line since April 5th. After the Tigers he’d go hitless in the entire series with the Phillies. A series the Red Sox would lose games with scores of 1-2 and 1-3. Games where hits could have really made a difference.

Is he hitting righties? Not really, .168/.241/.298 vs. .270/.335/.477 career. How about lefties ? Well, also no, at .229/.270/.314 vs. .232/.283/.335 in his career. For all the talk in the offseason and Spring Training about Cora wanting guys like Duran and Abreu to get more plate appearances against lefties, for Duran it hasn’t really worked, And righties are carving him up.

Which is all part of the point.

Jarren Duran is still here. He wasn’t traded.

Essentially no matchup is currently favoring him. But he had another twohit night and he’s up to .189 again. Could he be over .200 for Memorial Day? And then approach something near his .260 career batting average going forward? The Red Sox have to hope so, because he’s still in their plans and they need someone who looks at least like 2025 Duran if they’re going to coax more runs out of this lineup without a major trade, an idea which Craig Breslow has already splashed water on.

It’s time for the St. Louis Cardinals to call up Jimmy Crooks. Ok, so I don’t quite feel it to an ultimatum level like the first sentence reads. Crooks isn’t the Strait of Hormuz, he’s a flawed catcher for a franchise in the middle of a stated “long-term” year. However, I do think there’s a compelling case that it’s time. So, let me lay out the case and you guys can adjudicate it in the comments.

If you’d like more context on the issue in spoken form, we hosted Kyle Reis on Redbird Rundown and had a nuanced conversation about this very issue. Yes! Nuance does exist on the internet if you know where to look. I know many in the VEB community have hopped on board with Redbird Rundown since we were welcomed into the family. We really appreciate that. If you’re interested, or missed it, here are the easy links to our full prospect check-in episode. Apple and Spotify.

Allow me to first start on a more philosophical level. This is my personal opinion, but I do not want the Cardinals to spend real assets on this trade deadline if they remain in the hunt for a playoff spot (and it’s very possible they’re still in the hunt!). That being said, I do think a winning culture is important and this team, so far, has surprised everyone with their competitiveness. The level of achievement so far does deserve support from the front office, even if it falls short of trading the farm to make this team a contender. Please, Chaim, do not do that. 

Similar to the way a pitcher can develop “loose bodies” in their elbow, I think there are some “loose bodies” on the roster that could be tightened up with pieces the Cardinals already have under control to give this current team the best chance to succeed. Jimmy Crooks is part of that plan in my mind.

Jimmy Crooks is rocking Triple A Memphis

There are parts of Crooks’ offensive profile that are on the verge of eye-popping. We all know about the power. He’s battered 13 homeruns to the tune of a 1.027 OPS and a 161 wRC+. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but his under-the-hood metrics tell the story of just how real his pop is. He’s in the 98th percentile of barrel percentage. When he makes contact, he’s making excellent contact. This is leading to exit velocities that are very high end compared with his AAA peers. 

So far this season, power isn’t his only weapon. He’s running a 16% walk rate, which sits in the 83rd percentile. He’s got a robust .403 OBP. In Memphis, this is not simply a prospect that hits homers and doubles and nothing else, there’s a burgeoning on base skill that is clearly improving. 

The biggest hitch in Crooks’ game

For two paragraphs now, some of you have been mentally screaming (or maybe actually screaming) about his K rate and whiff percentage. It’s there. There’s no doubt. He’s striking out 31.3% of the time and has a whiff percentage that ranks in the 22nd percentile. These are limiting factors to his offense. This is what makes a prospect like Rainiel Rodriguez so incredible. The power is there without the whiff issues.

I do think it’s worth noting that his K rate has actually come down lately. There was a period when Crooks was swinging at everything like your family dog chases every car that drives by. His displayed a better selectivity rate that has led to his increased walk rate as well. Make no mistake, this is a swing and miss type of guy, but the ability to improve on that flaw while still bashing homers deserves a hat tip.

Defensively, Crooks has always been well regarded. Reliable metrics can be a little iffy to come across for the minors, but the aforementioned Kyle Reis reported the club loves his defensive prowess and specifically praised his ability to call games. Crooks is not a perfect prospect (who is?), but he gives off a lot of markers for a 25 year old ready for his first real big league run. Catcher is clearly a position that calls for good defense (someone alert the Cardinals about Herrera’s innings at catcher then). Everything in Crooks profile says he will be a good defender at the big league level.

Now that you’re undoubtedly convinced on Crooks the prospect (ha!), what happens with the roster? You may be aware that the Cardinals are overstocked on catchers right now. Some of them can hit. Others can’t. Some bunt. Some can’t throw to second base. Others rub Oli’s feet for all we know. So, something would have to change to call up Crooks.

I would propose something very simple. Move Pages to a backup role that suits his ability level much better. It keeps him present every day in the clubhouse to mentor Crooks as a major league catcher and prevents the kind of black hole offense he can fall into for spurts of games at a time. Ivan Herrera can still take some time at catcher, because Crooks immediately becomes a palatable option for some DH appearances. What of our king, Yohel Pozo? Honestly, if you don’t want to release him because of the clubhouse vibes and bat flips on singles, send Saggese down to Memphis for everyday playing time. Jose Fermin has performed admirably in several defensive alignments. He can simply soak up more bench innings/at bats if it’s necessary to keep Pozo. It’s laughable to have four catchers on the roster, but it’s an option.

There are continued knock on effects down the system. Leonardo Bernal gets additional development time behind the place at Memphis. If they want to be very aggressive with Rainiel Rodriguez promotions, then he’s not double blocked at Memphis and St. Louis. Crooks gets additional major league experience in a “long-term” year so that he’s more ready to catch the stable of strikeout arms when they surface in St. Louis.

Could Jimmy Crooks strikeout at rates that make his presence in St. Louis unsustainable? Yep. But, what if he doesn’t? What if he gives this lineup some serious pop in the 7th hole? This team deserves the most resources it can get to contribute to winning. This plan, while certainly containing drawbacks, leverages as many positive attributes of the current players in the system to win the maximum number of games possible.

Chaim just go tarps off and get it done. 

Let me know what you think of this line of thinking in the comments. Reasonable minds can disagree. Thanks for reading!

One of the most common critiques leveled against the Yankees’ 2025-26 offseason was that they were simply running it back, and to those critics, no move was as emblematic of that than the re-signing of Cody Bellinger. Although the 2019 NL MVP had a stellar year in 2025, hitting .272 with 29 homers and accumulating 4.9 WAR, many were wary, myself included, of how his offensive approach of eschewing walks and making contact, coupled with his low bat speed, would hold up over the duration of his contract.

Well, looks like I’m having crow for dinner tonight. After Monday’s action — a game in which Bellinger drilled a game-tying two-run homer — his wRC+ is sitting at a healthy 141. What’s truly surprising, though, is how he’s doing it — his walk rate is sitting at an elite 15.2 percent, up 6.5 percent from his 2025 mark. That’s the eighth-highest increase among all qualified batters in MLB.

While we’re still in small sample size season, walk rates for batters tend to stabilize earlier than other metrics, at around 120 plate appearances; Bellinger’s now at 204. If he can maintain this clip for the rest of the year, it would be a new career high for him.

Am I getting ahead of myself here? Maybe — there’s still a lot of baseball to be played. But I’m confident that Bellinger’s revamped approach will stick, for two main reasons: one, he’s doing it without becoming overly passive and letting hittable pitches go by, and two, he’s shown the ability to drastically change his offensive profile before in his career. Without further ado, let’s dive into the data.

In a vacuum, taking walks is great. Doing so allows you to get on base more, increasing your team’s chances of scoring. However, there are drawbacks to being too passive. Big league pitchers don’t throw many meatballs; being too committed to taking pitches might result in letting some middle-middle fastballs go right by you. The ideal approach is to be selectively aggressive — knowing which pitches you can do damage on, swinging at those, and laying off the rest.

It’s difficult to quantify this skill to a T, because the “right” pitches to swing at vary between hitters. However, one statistic makes a valiant effort — SEAGER, developed by Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus, and named for noted hitting extraordinaire Corey Seager, attempts to put a number on how selectively aggressive a certain hitter is, with the league leaders generally scoring in the mid-20s, and the laggards posting marks close to zero.

For our purposes, we’re interested in how 2026 Bellinger stacks up against his 2025 self. If the current version of Bellinger is drawing walks at the cost of letting hittable pitches go by, we can expect his 2026 SEAGER to be lower than his 2025 mark. Conversely, if he’s maintained or even increased his SEAGER, we can conclude that he isn’t just hunting for walks; he’s hunting meatballs too.

At first glance, Bellinger’s raw SEAGER number suggest he’s slipped a bit: while his 2025 SEAGER was 13.4, his 2026 mark to date is 11.0. However, once you contextualize his numbers against the rest of the league, they tell a different story. In 2025, Bellinger’s 13.4 SEAGER placed in the 56th percentile among all qualified hitters. In 2026, his 11.0 clip places him at… the 56th percentile, yet again. For all intents and purposes, Bellinger is just as aggressive when he needs to be now as he was in 2025. That’s truly impressive, given that he’s taking walks at a career-high clip.

Even given these encouraging underlying stats, though, some might say it’s still too early in the season to declare that Bellinger has truly changed. And for basically any other hitter, I would agree. But Bellinger? I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. After all, he’s no stranger to drastically changing his offensive profile.

When Bellinger first burst on to the scene in 2017, his age-21 season, he was a classic three-true-outcomes slugger: lots of homers, walks, and strikeouts. In 2019, a sudden decrease in strikeouts, coupled with the juiced ball, allowed him to post the best offensive numbers of his career en route to an MVP award, but his core approach remained the same — swing hard and hit the ball far. For the first three seasons of his career, Bellinger ran hard contact rates above 40 percent.

After regressing to a 112 wRC+ in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the bottom fell out for Bellinger in 2021. He hit just .165/.240/.302 over 350 plate appearances, for a wRC+ of 47. His strikeout rate ballooned to his pre-MVP levels, but his walk rate and power deserted him completely. While Bellinger “rebounded” to a 83 wRC+ the following year, many were convinced that his days as an impact bat were over.

However, Bellinger did not fade quietly into irrelevance. He underwent one of the most striking transformations I have ever seen, completely transforming himself as a hitter. He nearly halved his strikeout rate, slowed down his swing, and essentially became a contact hitter with pull-side power. The change paid off handsomely, rejuvenating his career with a 4.4 WAR season in 2023. And while he had a down year in 2024, we all know what he did in 2025.

My point is this: Bellinger has already shown himself to be extremely malleable as a player. Who’s to say he isn’t learning new tricks at this stage in his career? We’ve already established that the quality of his swing decisions hasn’t suffered as a result of his walk-taking ways. Neither has the quality of his contact; in fact, that’s improved. Bellinger’s hard contact rate slipped below 30 percent from 2023-2025; this year, he’s at 36.7 percent. The last three years saw his actual wOBA far outstrip his xwOBA; this year, he has a .376 wOBA against a .383 xwOBA. It’s like Bellinger heard every concern fans had about his signing, and made it his personal mission to alleviate all of them.

I know better than to declare a five-year contract a big win in just its first year. But I’d be lying if I said Bellinger’s stellar start hasn’t considerably improved my outlook. If he can just keep on what he’s been doing, the Yankees have a third elite offensive weapon behind Aaron Judge and Ben Rice.

TODAY’S GAME: The Houston Astros (20-30) and Minnesota Twins (22-27) will play the rubber match of this 3-game series this afternoon at 12:40 p.m. CT.

RHP Mike Burrows (2-5, 5.72 ERA) will make his 10th start of the season as he takes on Twins RHP Joe Ryan (2-3, 3.20 ERA).

ABOUT BURROWS: RHP Mike Burrows is making his club-leading 10th start of the season this afternoon and his 2nd career start/app. vs. MIN (other was at Target Field as well). He took the loss in his last start on 5/14 vs. SEA (5 IP, 7 ER). Prior to that start, had posted a 2.50 ERA (5ER/18IP) over a 3-start span.

VS. THE TWINS: The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games vs. the Twins. HOU was 5-1 vs. MIN last season, going 3-0 at home and 2-1 here at Target Field.

The Astros won 2 of 3 in their last visit to Target Field, April 3-6 of 2025 and then later swept MIN in a 3-game series at Daikin Park, June 13-15.

Since 2021, the Astros are 10-6 at Target Field and 19-14 vs. MIN overall.

IN THE DAYTIME: Today is the 1st of 4 consecutive scheduled day games for the Astros.

All 3 games this weekend at Wrigley Field are scheduled to be day games. The last time that the Astros have played 4 consecutive day games was April 2-6 of last season (source: Elias).

ROADIES: Today is the 2nd game of a 10-game, 3-city road trip for the Astros.

After this 3-game set at MIN, they will visit Chicago for a 3-game series at Wrigley Field (Fri.-Sun.) vs. the Cubs and then travel back to Texas for a 4-game series vs. the Rangers at Globe Life Field (Mon.-Thurs).

ROADWORK: The Astros have been the AL’s top hitting team on the road in 2026. Entering today’s game, HOU leads the AL in road batting avg. (.272), OPS (.764), SLG (.422) and OBP (.342).

ROAD WARRIOR: In his young career, Brice Matthews has had success hitting on the road, as he enters today with a .282 (22×78) career avg. in 25 road games with 6 HR and 20 RBI with a .577 SLG and a .944 OPS.

In 2026, he is hitting .296 (16×54) on the road with 2 HR and an .881 OPS.

CLOSE CALLS: With last night’s win, the Astros are now 4-2 in 1-run games and 8-8 in 2-run games.

JAKE’S RETURN: Last night, Jake Meyers went 1×3 in what was his 1st game following a stint on the Injured List due to a right oblique strain (4/9-5/18, missed 36 games).

Traveling Well: Meyers is now 6×21 (.286) on the road this season after leading the Majors in road batting avg. last season with a .350 clip (min. 200 PA).

EE-SOCK: Last night’s HR for Isaac Paredes was #97 in his career. He needs 3 more HR to become the 4th MLB player born in Mexico to reach 100 career HR.

BRYAN’S SONG: After a slow start to his season, RHP Bryan Abreu has not allowed a run in his last 6 outings, covering 6.0 IP (3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 SO).

In his last 8 appearances, Abreu has posted a 1.12 ERA (1ER/8.0IP) with 9 K’s.

THE BIG OH: LHP Steven Okert punched out all 3 batters that he faced last night, giving him 7 K’s in his last 3.1 IP (3 app.). He has not allowed a run in his last 5 app. (5.1 IP).

AIR YORDAN: Yordan Alvarez is batting .309 with 11 doubles, 15 HR, 31 RBI and a 1.038 OPS (.419 OBP/.619 SLG).

In the AL, he ranks first in total bases (112), 2nd in OPS and SLG (.619), 3rd in OBP (.419), T-4th in HR and 4th in batting avg.

ON THE LEADER BOARD: As a club, the Astros currently lead the AL in hits (417) while ranking 2nd in OPS (.733) and SLG (.409) and 3rd in HR (60).

WALKER, TEXAS HAMMER: 1B Christian Walker is among the AL leaders in several offensive categories. He is 2nd on the club in HR (11) and T-1st in RBI (31).

Among the AL leaders, Walker ranks T-8th in RBI (31), T-10th in HR (11), 9th in total bases (90) and 11th in SLG (.500).

RECENT ROSTER MOVES: Yesterday, the Astros made the following roster moves:

-Placed RHP Lance McCullers Jr. on the 15-day Injured List due to right shoulder inflammation.

-Reinstated OF Jake Meyers from the 10-day Injured List.

-Reinstated RHP Nate Pearson from the 15-day Injured List.

-Optioned IF Shay Whitcomb to Triple A Sugar Land.

TODAY IN ASTROS HISTORY: 1978 – J.R. Richard and Jose Cruz have banner days, leading the Astros to a 13-0 win over the Braves in the Dome. Richard hurls a 4-hit, complete game shutout with 8 strikeouts. Jose Cruz goes 4×5 with a HR and 6 RBI.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, May 20, 12:40 p.m. CT

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

TV: Space City Home Network

Streaming: SCHN+

Radio: KBME 790 AM & 94.5 FM HD2; TUDN 102.9 FM HD2 (Spanish)

The Tampa Bay Rays' latest quest for a new stadium passed another hurdle Wednesday, May 20, when Hillsborough County commissioners approved a non-binding memorandum of understanding for their contribution to the $2.3 billion ballpark by a 5-2 vote.

The Rays aim to construct a domed stadium across Dale Mabry Boulevard from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' home, and not far from the New York Yankees' spring training complex. While it's been nearly two decades since the franchise first sought an alternative home to Tropicana Field — antiquated even before it first hosted Major League Baseball in 1998 — this particular effort aims to rally support from the state, county and city level.

New owner Patrick Zalupski, a prominent donor to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is counting on $150 million in state funding to build the stadium on the Dale Mabry campus of Hillsborough College. The state legislature is currently in special session.

Yet the city and state contributions are slated to be much larger. The memorandum of understanding voted on Wednesday includes $976 million from Hillsborough County and the city of Tampa, according to the Tampa Bay Times. That's a slight decrease from the roughly $1.1 billion ask by the ballclub, which had stressed a goal of June 1 to secure agreements from the municipalities.

More: Tropicana Field roof repairs looking good with Rays ready for MLB return

When you look at Jose Tena, you do not see a huge physical presence. He is a pretty unassuming guy, listed at 5’10 195 pounds. You would guess Tena was a speedy, contact oriented player if you had not seen him play before. However, his defining trait is how hard he hits the baseball and how much force he generates from his small frame.

This season, Tena has seen a huge spike in his bat speed. It has gone from a below average 70.8 MPH to a well above average 73.5 MPH. After yesterday’s game, I asked Tena how he has improved his bat speed. He told me that he was working on getting stronger, especially in the core area. Tena also said that working with the Nats hitting coaches has helped as well.

The added bat speed has resulted in a ton of hard contact. His average exit velocity is 93.2 MPH this season, which is easily a career high. Over the past couple weeks, he has been absolutely torching balls. In the past 10 days or so, Tena’s average exit velocity is 97.7 MPH. That has him sandwiched between Kyle Schwarber and Drake Baldwin on that leaderboard. 

Seeing Tena next to those two hitters when it comes to exit velocities is pretty crazy when you look at him. We all know that Kyle Schwarber is an absolute unit, with a 5’11 230 pound frame built for power. Drake Baldwin is another powerful athlete, who is listed at 225 pounds. Tena is at least 30 pounds lighter than those guys, but has been packing a similar punch.

The thunder in Tena’s bat is resulting in a ton of extra base hits. Tena is not really a guy who hits a ton of flyballs to the pull side, so most of those extra base hits have been doubles. However, as we saw last night, he has the ability to hit balls out. Tena went to James Wood territory and hit a ball into the left field bullpen off of Nolan McLean.

Nine of Tena’s last 10 hits have gone for extra bases. That sort of impact is why Blake Butera has been giving him a lot of reps at the DH spot and hits him towards the top of the order at times. For the season, Tena has a .748 OPS and 109 wRC+.

There are still areas of Tena’s game that could improve though. He has been striking out a lot this season. His K rate is hovering around 30% for the season, which is a big jump from his 22% K rate in 2025. He is taking big hacks, and there are times where he comes up empty. We saw some frustrating strikeouts from him in the first game of the Mets series.

Tena has some chase in his game and does not walk a ton either. However, he does not chase an egregious amount. His 30% chase rate is pretty close to league average. This profile does mean Tena has to do damage to have success. He has been doing just that this year.

The Nats lead all of baseball in doubles, and Tena plays a role in that. Blasting rockets into the gap is a massive part of Tena’s game. A perfect example of that is the RBI double he hit the other day that drove in Joey Wiemer. It was a 108 MPH liner right into the gap.

Jose Tena is showing that you do not have to be a huge guy to hit the ball hard. If you are strong and have good swing mechanics, you can hit the ball hard. Honestly, Dylan Crews is another example of this and is fairly similar to Tena as a hitter. Seeing Crews at his locker yesterday, I was surprised at how small he was.

When you see guys like Crews and Tena on the field hitting rockets, they appear to be bigger guys than they actually are. Not all power hitters have to look like James Wood or Aaron Judge, and that is pretty cool to see. Every time I see the unassuming Tena hit a 110 MPH rocket into the gap, I am always slightly taken aback even though I have seen it plenty of times now. 

CJ Abrams and James Wood are the engines of this Nats offense, but you need more than two guys to be an elite offense. The contributions of players like Tena, Curtis Mead, and even the recently demoted Joey Wiemer are what pushes this offense from good to great.

Texas Rangers lineup for May 20, 2026 against the Colorado Rockies: starting pitchers are Jack Leiter for the Rangers and Kyle Freeland for the Rockies.

The Rangers take on the Rockies in an afternoon rubber match for their three game series. They are facing Kyle Freeland. On the one hand, Freeland has been bad this year, with a 7.22 ERA in 33 innings over 7 starts, with a 5.42 xERA and 5.40 FIP. On the other hand, Freeland is a lefty, which means that the Rangers are running out a lineup that everyone is going to be mad about.

The lineup:

McCutchen — DH

Foscue — 2B

Nimmo — RF

Jung — 3B

Duran — SS

Burger — 1B

Helman — CF

Higashioka — C

Haggerty — LF

2:10 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are -120 favorites.