Why Toronto's Dylan Cease presents a different challenge for Phillies originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
One of the more surprising moves of the offseason came last November, when the Blue Jays landed Dylan Cease.
It was no surprise Toronto wanted to fortify its starting rotation. But the club came to an agreement on a seven-year, $210 million deal, the largest contract in franchise history…
…for a pitcher who had posted a 4.55 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP the year before.
The way Cease has pitched this season has given that deal a different tone, though.
The 30-year-old enters Tuesday’s matchup against the Phillies with a 3.05 ERA through 11 starts in 2026, with 92 strikeouts in 62 innings.
He ranks in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate.
Cease has missed his last two turns after landing on the injured list with a hamstring injury, but he will be activated as the Blue Jays look to even the three-game series against the Phils.
So what has the right-hander, who has the second-best odds for the American League Cy Young Award, done differently this year?
EXPANDED THE ARSENAL
In years past, Cease relied mostly on his fastball and slider.
This year, he has leaned more heavily on pitches he had thrown before, but not nearly as often. The changeup has become a real weapon against lefties. The sinker has given him another look against righties.
In 2025, Cease threw his changeup just 1 percent of the time. In 2026, he has thrown it 11 percent of the time. He has used it just 1 percent against righties, but 18 percent against lefties.
Cease, who carries a 36 percent whiff rate, eighth best among 233 qualified pitchers, has seen his swing-and-miss jump with the development of that pitch.
The changeup has produced a 56.8 percent swing-and-miss rate, the highest in baseball among pitches thrown at least 100 times.
The sinker has also grown. Cease is throwing it 9.7 percent of the time this year, nearly triple last season’s usage. It has missed barrels when hitters have put it in play. Opponents are just 3-for-25 against the pitch with three singles and nine strikeouts.
He has put hitters away with the sinker 36 percent of the time, an impressive rate and something to watch against the Phillies’ right-handed bats.
The more complete repertoire has helped Cease generate softer contact, a nearly 10 percent increase in groundball rate and a significant drop in barrel percentage.
It is a six-pitch mix, but one pitch still stands out.
CEASE AND SLIDE
Cease’s slider, which he throws 29.4 percent of the time, has been dominant.
Opponents are hitting just .130 against it with a .169 slugging percentage. Of the 43 times hitters have put it in play, only one has gone for extra bases.
He is throwing the slider a little more than 11 percent less than last year, but it has been more effective. His four-seam fastball, which averages 97.8 mph, has also been used less, but the pitches have played off each other well. His short, over the top arm slot, plus his arm speed provide Cease with great deception.
That is where the challenge starts for the Phillies.
PHILLIES ATTACK PLAN & PICK TO CLICK
The Phillies’ best plan probably does not revolve around hitting the slider.
As a club, they are batting .188 against sliders this season. And among their right-handed regulars, not one is hitting better than .212 against the pitch.
That is especially important because Cease throws the slider 13 percent more often to righties than lefties.
Cease also has a career-high first-pitch strike rate in 2026, which has helped open up his more balanced mix. For the Phillies, the best target should be his four-seam fastball.
Opponents are hitting .276 against the pitch. They also have a 48.1 percent hard-hit rate against it, the highest mark of Cease’s career and well above his 41.9 percent career average.
Cease is also throwing the fastball for a strike more than ever before.
A pick to click could be Trea Turner, who is batting just .197 over his last 15 games. The Phillies’ shortstop has surprisingly hit .338 against four-seamers this season, with 23 hits and three homers.
As Turner tries to break out of his skid, it might make sense for him to be aggressive early and hunt the fastball instead of trying to work deep counts against Cease, who has shown he can put hitters away in a variety of ways.
That same approach could apply to Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper if they get a fastball they can drive.
It worked against Monday’s starter Patrick Corbin, who had far fewer ways to finish hitters late in counts.
The current Phillies who have faced Cease have combined for a .900 OPS in 60 at-bats against him. Turner leads the group with a .444 average in nine at-bats.
Cease has still had command issues at times, posting his highest walk rate since 2023. If the Phillies can take their walks, get into fastball counts and punish mistakes, they will have a real chance to put Cease on the ropes.
That would be a good development with Zack Wheeler on the mound.
Cease’s numbers change drastically the third time through the order, which could pair with the Phillies’ recent ability to string together baserunners. They did it Monday night against Corbin.
Tuesday, they will look for their third straight series win..