Category: MLB

Summer has officially started, and the Twins are feeling hot, with a 5-1 record last week! A sweep against the Rangers and a 2-1 series win over the Diamondbacks that was filled with homers and runs galore put the team at 38-41, only 3.5 games out of the AL Central lead behind two teams in Cleveland and Chicago that have dealt with significant injuries as of recent. Byron Buxton earned AL Player of the Week honors to start the week and added a couple more homers, including a grand slam against Arizona. He also reiterated his commitment to the team, telling Dan Hayes at The Athletic, “I don’t give a f—“ about trade rumors. Buxton currently sits second in the AL in homers, 6th in wRC+, and is a Gold-Glove caliber center fielder – sounds like a potential MVP candidate to me!

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• Zach Koenig takes time to thank Byron Buxton for all his accomplishments over the last couple of years.
• Aidan Thomas reviews the state of the catcher position in the Twins farm system.
• With new faces showing up on the major league roster every day, Matt Monitto lists the remaining jersey numbers that have yet to be claimed in Twins history.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• Aaron Gleeman at AaronGleeman.com looks at the reliever that might be putting an end to the revolving door at closer.
• Eleanor Hildebrandt at the Star Tribune provides context on why customer service at Target Field for today’s game might be a bit different, with concession stand workers going on strike.
• Theo Tollefson at Zone Coverage checks in on outfield Alan Roden and how he’s playing now that he’s back from injury.
• Betsy Helfand at the Pioneer Press looks at how Mick Abel’s setback impacts the Twins’ plan for the rotation.

In the World of Baseball:

• The Yankees have maintained their lead atop the American League, with a two-game cushion over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Guardians and White Sox are separated by a game in the AL Central lead, while the Mariners continue to hold the top spot in the West. The Blue Jays now occupy the third wild-card slot.
• The Dodgers, who are coming to town to face the Twins, are now tied with Atlanta for the NL Central lead. Milwaukee is 1.5 games behind, and the Cardinals, Phillies, and now Cubs have the three wild-card spots.
• With all the recent Tarik Skubal trade rumors, Mike Petriello at MLB.com explains the simple reason why Skubal might remain in Detroit.
• The MLB owners provided their latest proposal in the CBA battle, this time with a shocker of overhauling the draft process, most notably, making high-schoolers ineligible for the draft and implementing an international draft. Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan at ESPN have a deeper dive into the offer.
• Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs looks at the financial impacts on players with the newest owners’ proposal.

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With 13 games on the slate, there are a plethora of betting angles to attack. However, we've decided to deliver a moneyline pick for every matchup.

Find out what games you should add to your MLB picks for June 22.

MLB moneyline picks for June 22

Matchup	Pick
Yankees vs Tigers	-122
Royals vs Rays	-178
Rangers vs Marlins	-117
Phillies vs Nationals	-111
Astros vs Blue Jays	+113
Cubs vs Mets	-113
Brewers vs Reds	-142
Guardians vs White Sox	-104
Dodgers vs Twins	-148
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals	-142
Red Sox vs Rockies	+115
Orioles vs Angels	-150
Braves vs Padres	+100

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 6-22.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 22

Yankees vs Tigers: Yankees (-122)

Yankees win probability: 55%

I am not fading the Gerrit Cole train against this inconsistent Detroit Tigers lineup. While the offense has shown some life over the last few games, the New York Yankees have been rolling as well.

Tigers southpaw Framber Valdez has a sub-5.00 ERA at home this season, but he now draws a Yanks lineup filled with lefties who can handle left-handed pitching. I trust Cole & Co. offense to jump on Valdez early and build some insurance runs.

Royals vs Rays: Rays (-178)

Rays win probability: 64%

I do not care if this is the game in which the Kansas City Royals break out. This team has been a disappointment, and I have very little confidence in them right now.

Drew Rasmussen has been excellent, posting a 1.69 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and a 2.44% barrel rate over his last five outings. The Tampa Bay Rays should be in a strong position to carve up Michael Wacha, who has a 5.58 ERA over his last five starts.

Rangers vs Marlins: Marlins (-117)

Marlins win probability: 54%

I have an MLB player prop from this game, but let’s cut to the chase: With Kumar Rocker on the mound for the Texas Rangers, I automatically lean toward the Marlins.

Over his last five starts, he is allowing 45% hard contact with a 5.25 ERA. Tyler Phillips has not been much better, but I trust the young Fish more in this spot at home.

Phillies vs Nationals: Nationals (-111)

Nationals win probability: 52%

I am not eager to fade the Philadelphia Phillies coming off a strong series against the Mets, especially with a potential Sunday Night hangover in play.

If the Washington Nationals can execute their game plan, they have a chance to get out to an early lead against Alan Rangel, while Foster Griffin works to keep things steady on the mound.

This sets up as a strong spot for one of baseball's more exciting offenses to get rolling. Washington’s right-hander has posted a 1.93 ERA over his last five outings, and it will be interesting to see if he can keep that form going in this matchup.

Astros vs Blue Jays: Astros (+113)

Astros win probability: 47%

Despite Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Dylan Cease being dominant this season, I think fading this Houston Astros lineup isn't a risk worth taking, given how well they have been seeing the ball over their last few games.

I am not overly concerned about Hunter Brown’s return turning into a disaster here, especially with Yordan Alvarez leading the way with an elite rating today. If he gets going, the rest of the offense tends to follow.

Cubs vs Mets: Cubs (-113)

Cubs win probability: 53%

The New York Mets return home after a Sunday Night Baseball loss, while the Chicago Cubs arrive with a full day of rest and momentum at the plate. 

Chicago’s offense has been clicking lately and will look to apply early pressure against Kodai Senga. Even with some uncertainty in the Cubs’ bullpen, the edge here is with their offense in this spot.

Brewers vs Reds: Brewers (-142)

Brewers win probability: 59%

The Milwaukee Brewers are in a strong spot in Cincinnati against Brady Singer, who enters with poor matchup grades in both wOBA and ISO.

Milwaukee’s lineup grades out elite on Batters-Box with five elite-rated bats and one strong hitter, giving them a clear edge at the plate. Singer has struggled at home this season, posting a 5.61 xERA and 5.33 xFIP while allowing 42.2% hard contact and a 14.1% barrel rate.

Milwaukee counters with Brandon Woodruff, who has been excellent on the road with a 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, limiting damage consistently with minimal hard contact. Despite the juice, Milwaukee looks like the side in a small park matchup.

Guardians vs White Sox: Guardians (-104)

Guardians win probability: 51%

The Chicago White Sox return home after cooling off from wins over the Dodgers and Braves, but Anthony Kay on the mound does not inspire much confidence.

The Cleveland Guardians counter with Gavin Williams, who has been steady of late. This matchup leans toward Cleveland behind the stronger pitching performance.

Dodgers vs Twins: Dodgers (-148)

Dodgers win probability: 59%

The Los Angeles Dodgers face Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, who has struggled badly against lefties with a 9.00 ERA, 7.01 xERA, and heavy hard contact allowed.

Los Angeles brings six elite-rated left-handed bats into a prime matchup. Even with Eric Lauer on the mound, this sets up as a strong Dodgers offensive spot.

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-142)

Cardinals win probability: 57%

The St. Louis Cardinals are in a strong spot at home against Merrill Kelly, who has struggled badly against lefties, allowing heavy hard contact, barrels, and elevated damage recently.

St. Louis brings an elite-rated lineup into a favorable matchup, while Andre Pallante has been steady at home. This sets up well for the Cardinals.

Red Sox vs Rockies: Rockies (+115)

Rockies win probability: 46%

I may have some Colorado Rockies bias in my blood, I will admit it. I just think this offense is scrappy, annoying in the best way, and always feels like they are in every game, no matter the score.

Right now, they have been seeing the ball really well over their last 30 at-bats vs. right-handed pitching. Five hitters are batting over .300, six have an OPS above .783, and six also carry an OBP above .333.

The Red Sox have been better lately, but I trust Colorado’s offense to be more consistent in this spot.

Orioles vs Angels: Orioles (-150) 

Orioles win probability: 60%

According to Batters-Box, the Orioles enter today with seven hitters carrying at least a strong rating against Angels left-hander Sam Aldegheri, who has been better at home this season.

However, over his last three outings, he owns a 7.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, a 14% walk rate, and a 14% strikeout rate. With a nearly fully elite-rated offense in this spot, it is hard to overlook the data.

Braves vs Padres: Braves (+100)

Braves win probability: 50%

What a game this should be, with both offenses running cold and both pitchers coming off some rough recent outings. I am typically anti-Padres due to their inconsistency at the plate, so I lean toward the more complete offense in this spot.

Despite their recent struggles, I still think the Atlanta Braves are the better team here.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Rays have been an analytical team for decades, maximizing the talent on their payroll-deprived roster for years. After five consecutive playoff appearances from 2019-23 that included a pennant, the team missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. But they have rebounded this year with a terrific start using an old formula familiar to Royals fans – put the ball in play and make things happen on the bases.

The Rays and Royals are the top two teams in baseball in contact rate, but while the Royals have the second-highest flyball rate, the Rays put the ball on the ground with the fourth-highest groundball rate. The Rays also go the opposite way more than any team except the Brewers. They are eighth in stolen bases and Baserunning Runs, and have attempted and executed more sacrifice hits than any team in baseball.

That being said, they have only done slightly better offensively than the Royals. And they have faded lately after a hot month of May, going 7-11 this month.

Kansas City Royals (32-46) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (43-31) at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL

Royals: 4.24 runs scored/game (21st in MLB), 4.81 runs allowed/game (20th)

Rays: 4.42 runs scored/game (16th), 4.31 runs allowed/game (11th)

Yandy Díaz is third in all of baseball in batting average at .326, and he is hitting .364/.439/.653 in home games. Junior Caminero is hitting .291/.417/.468 against lefties. Jonathan Aranda is a career .324/.324/.486 in 11 games against the Royals.

Speedster Chandler Simpson has a 10.8 percent strikeout rate, tenth-lowest among qualified hitters, and his 58 percent groundball rate is the highest in baseball. He is hitting just .125/.169/.125 over his last 19 games. Cedric Mullins has the highest flyball rate in baseball at 59 percent. Simpson is one of the best defenders in baseball in the outfield, by Outs Above Average, while Caminero is the second-worst defender at any position.

Drew Rasmussen has the 11th-highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate among all qualified starters. His 2.59 ERA is second-lowest in the American League. He has a 49.3 percent groundball rate, ninth-highest among starters. Rasmussen has a 1.69 ERA over his last five starts, including striking out a career-high 13 batters on June 10 against the Red Sox.

Shane McClanahan missed the last two seasons due to injury, but the two-time All-Star has picked up where he left off. He has a 2.05 ERA in six home starts this year, and lefties are hitting just .133/.235/.178 against him. He had his shortest outing of the year his last time out, exiting in the fourth inning after giving up a career-high five walks. He has a 2.30 ERA in three career starts against the Royals.

Griffin Jax was a closer to the Twins, but the Rays have converted him to a starting pitcher. He has slowly ramped up, but has yet to go more than five innings in a start. Salvador Perez is just 2-for-17 (.118) in his career against Jax.

Ian Seymour is also a former reliever who has slowly ramped up to starting, pitching a season-high five innings in his last start against the Nationals. He mostly throws a changeup and sweeper, only mixing in his 91 mph fastball 22 percent of the time. Opponents are hitting just .171 against his sweeper with a 42 percent whiff rate.

The Rays’ bullpen has struggled with a 4.53 ERA and a 4.76 FIP. They do have the fourth-lowest rate of allowing inherited runners to score. Bryan Baker has been a terrific pickup, and his 19 saves are third-most in baseball. Kevin Kelly has a 58.9 percent groundball rate, 11th-highest among relievers. All-Star pitcher Craig Kimbrel has given up one run in three innings since joining the Rays following his release from the Mets.

The Rays are glad to be back at Tropicana Field after a year away when the stadium was being repaired following Hurricane Milton. They are 26-10 at home this year, by far the best home record in baseball. The Royals swept all three games in St. Pete last year, and have not lost a series here since 2022.

The Cubs swept the Mets at Wrigley Field in April and outscored them 18-7 in the three games.

Perhaps seeing the Mets again can get the Cubs back on a winning track.

For more on the Mets, here’s Chris McShane, manager of our SB Nation Mets site Amazin’ Avenue.

The 2026 Mets are an unmitigated disaster. When they played the Cubs at Wrigley earlier this season, they were in the midst of their twelve-game losing streak, and the best thing I can say about them is that they’ve been somewhat better than that in the two months since that streak ended. Still, they haven’t done nearly enough to climb out of the hole they dug. Injuries to Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Clay Holmes have played a significant part in the team’s extremely underwhelming performance, but it’s pretty clear that the roster that David Stearns built for the 2026 season — one that cost well over $300 million — is deeply flawed. 

Things might not have been perfect if the Mets kept all of the big players they chose to move on from following the 2025 season, but it’s very hard not to dwell on the fact that the front office was very happy to let Pete Alonso walk and had no viable plan for replacing him. At the time of this writing, his 17 home runs and 119 wRC+ would have him tied for the team lead in home runs and second in wRC+ if he were still with the Mets. Did the Mets avoid some ugly years at the end of a long-term contract for Alonso? Sure. But it’s hard to give a damn about that when the team is owned by one of the richest people on the planet, one who happens to be building a casino in his team’s parking lot to get even richer.

As for this series, I can tell you that the Mets’ lineup can look functional in any given game, but when they get off to a slow start, they tend to take some of the weakest at-bats you’ve ever seen and go down silently. Of the four starting pitchers the Cubs will face, Nolan McLean and Sean Manaea are the better two at the moment. Both have had struggles at different points of this season but have been better of late. Kodai Senga, however, has been awful outside of his first two starts of the season, and Freddy Peralta is coming off the worst start of his career, one that left him with a 4.83 ERA that feels like the cherry on top of the Mets’ horrendous offseason.

Fun facts

The Cubs are two losses away from 200 against the Mets at New York, where they have won 186 and tied one, for a winning percentage of .484.

They had percentages of .556 (10-8) at the Polo Grounds and .470 (146-165-1) at Shea Stadium. At Citi Field, they are .537 (29-25), but .400 (4-6) since 2023. Last year, they lost two of three.

Their last sweep visiting the Mets was three games in 2022. Other recent sweeps were three games in 2019, four in 2018 and three in 2015.

The Cubs were swept in four games in 2016. In 2021, they lost three, then won the fourth.

In all 783 games between the teams, the Cubs have outscored the Mets by just four runs, 3,383-3,379. They lead the rivalry 402-379, with two ties.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Monday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (4-6, 4.26 ERA, 1.062 WHIP, 4.58 FIP) vs. Kodai Senga, RHP (0-5, 9.00 ERA, 1.875 WHIP, 6.81 FIP)

Tuesday: Edward Cabrera, RHP (4-4, 5.21 ERA, 1.396 WHIP, 5.15 FIP) vs. Nolan McLean, RHP (4-4, 3.67 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, 3.50 FIP)

Wednesday: Javier Assad, RHP (5-1, 3.89 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 4.42 FIP) vs. Sean Manaea, LHP (1-2, 4.64 ERA, 1.344 WHIP, 3.75 FIP)

Thursday: TBD vs. Freddy Peralta, RHP (5-6, 4.83 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 4.32 FIP)

NOTE: At the time this series preview posted, the Cubs did not have a starter listed for Thursday’s series finale. It would be Ben Brown’s turn, but it’s possible the team might activate Matthew Boyd from the injured list — he last pitched Saturday in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa, so he’d be on four days’ rest — and save Brown to open the series in Milwaukee on Friday. As always, we await developments.

Times & TV channels

Monday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, also streaming on Peacock (outside the Cubs and Mets market territories)

Tuesday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Wednesday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Thursday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

The Cubs have won six of their last nine, which is pretty good (especially after that 7-22 slide!). Meanwhile, the Mets are 5-7 in their last 12 games.

The Mets, though, are better at home (18-18) than on the road (16-25). And several of the pitching matchups here appear to favor the Cubs.

The Cubs really need to keep stacking series wins so I’ll say they will do that and win three of four.

Up next

The Cubs head to Milwaukee for a three-game divisional matchup with the Brewers beginning Friday evening.

In a rubber match for the series yesterday afternoon, the Nationals hung around against the Rays, taking a 3-2 lead into the 7th inning, but were unable to hold onto it, as a Jonny DeLuca 2-run blast off Orlando Ribalta in the bottom of the 7th gave the Rays a 1-run lead they would hold onto for the 4-3 win. The Nats didn’t play bad baseball by any means this series, but still were only able to take 1 of the 3 games, bringing them to 40-38 on the season, now a half game back of the third wild card spot in the National League.

Heading home after a short weekend road trip, the Nats are now faced with what is, for my money, one of their most critical series of the entire decade so far. Having blown away everyone’s expectations so far for where they would be in the standings by late June, the Nats now will do battle with the Phillies in a 4-game set at home, one that could set the tone for the rest of the season.

Take 3 out of 4 (or better), and you bring yourself right next to or above the Phillies in playoff positioning, while sending a message this team is for real. Take only 1 out of 4 (or worse), and playoff dreams start to go back to “just wishful thinking”.

The Phillies are riding some good vibes into this series, having just taken the weekend series from the Mets, which included both a Bryce Harper cycle and a Kyle Schwarber 3 home run game in the 15-3 win on Saturday. The offense hasn’t always been there at times for them this season, with the 4th fewest runs scored as a team in the NL, but the pitching staff has been strong, led by Cy Young candidate Cristopher Sanchez.

Game One – Monday 6:45 PM EST

PHI: TBD

After sending down Andrew Painter a few days ago, who had an ERA that started with a 7, the Phillies will have to get creative with their pitching tonight. Fangraphs lists RHP Alan Rangel, who has a 3.99 ERA in Triple A this season, as the probable starter, though no announcement has come of him joining the big league club yet.

WSH: LHP Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.32 ERA)

Game Two – Tuesday 6:45 PM EST

PHI: Jesus Luzardo (6-4, 4.20 ERA)

WSH: RHP Zack Littell (6-6, 5.45 ERA)

Luzardo had one of his better outings of the season last time out, throwing 7 innings of 2-run ball and striking out 9 Marlins in a win

Littell has run into trouble in his last 2 outings after a string of good ones, giving up a combined 9 runs, including 4 over 5 innings against the Royals.

Game Three – Wednesday 6:45 PM EST

PHI: RHP Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.71 ERA)

WSH: RHP Miles Mikolas (2-6, 5.47 ERA)

Nola hasn’t always been reliable for the Phillies in 2026, but he got the job done his last time out, with 5 innings of 2-run ball against the Mets in a no-decision.

Mikolas had been rolling in the month of June, but he ran into trouble in his last start against the Rays, giving up 5 runs over 6 innings of work in a loss.

Game Four – Thursday 6:45 PM EST

PHI: LHP Cristopher Sanchez (9-3, 1.80 ERA)

WSH: RHP Cade Cavalli (4-4, 4.07 ERA)

After carrying a scoreless innings streak up to 50 2/3 innings, Sanchez has come back to Earth a little, which still means for him 6 innings of 1 run ball in a win in his last start.

After being moved back from his Friday start to Saturday due to illness, it was clear Cavalli wasn’t 100% still, giving up 2 runs and walking 3 batters over 2 2/3 innings pitched.

Start Off Strong

The Phillies have their rotation lined up for games 2 through 4 of this series, but not tonight, as they likely will call up a starter from Triple A and hope they can get them through enough innings to save the bullpen for the rest of the series. It is critical that the Nationals’ lineup gets going early tonight and forces the Phillies to go to the pen early and burn through arms. Secure a big win tonight, and you only need to take 1 of the next 3 to secure at least a series split.

Sunday didn’t go quite as planned as the Red Sox fell short of completing a sweep of the Seattle Mariners. However, winning two out of three isn’t the worst outcome either. The Sox are playing .500 on the road. That’s about as much as you can ever hope for. The failure is the home record. That’s where they need a big turnaround. But for now, there’s another opportunity: the Colorado Rockies.

While Boston enters Denver at 31-44 and the Rockies have a 30-48 mark, the teams are not quite equals. The Red Sox have an expected record of 37-38 against the Rockies 31-47. And that’s because the Sox have a -7 run differential and the Rockies have a mark of -90. As they say, pitching, pitching, pitching.

With Brayan Bello still lost in the wilderness, Jake Bennet gets another big league start. Since returning from Triple A, the southpaw has tossed 10.0 innings while allowing 10 hits, 6 runs (4 and 2), while striking out 9 and walking just 1. The Sox pitching prospect hasn’t been overwhelmed by the majors so far and he’ll keep getting opportunities as long as Bello is searching for whatever it is he lost before 2026 began. Bennet will be opposed by Ryan Feltner. If you’re thinking “wasn’t he a Sox prospect years ago?” no that a was Durbin Feltman who is, in fact, still pitching in the American Association for Kansas City. Feltner is a righty in his sixth season with the Rockies. He’s sitting on a career 5.18 ERA / 4.52 FIP over 380 innings so this is who is he is. His two best starts of the season came back-to-back against the Giants and Brewers where he went six innings and allowed 0 runs and 1 run, respectively. Then the Cubs hit him hard twice, keeping Feltner from reaching 5 innings either time out.

Where would the 2026 Red Sox be without Sonny Gray? Probably behind the Rockies. What more is there to say? Gray is coming off a 7.0 inning, 3 run outing against the Blue Jays that the Sox lost 4-3. He’s only pitched in Coors Field once (2019) but allowed just a single run in 7.0 innings. Fingers crossed he remembers he thrived at altitude. He’ll face Sean Sullivan (again, not Sean O’Sullivan who made four starts for the Sox in 2016). A southpaw, Sullivan is two games into is MLB career. So far it’s been a little weird: 3 shutout innings against eh Athletics and 4.0 innings against eh Cubs where he allowed 8 runs. The 22 year old, who was born in Boston, was putting up a 5.60 ERA in Triple A in 11 starts. But that was in the Pacific Coast League where offense runs high.

Ranger Suarez took a no-hitter into the seventh innings last time out and left with just a single hit. There were a few walks, but it was a solid outing. One in a string of solid outings for Suarez who has given the Sox three wins in his last five starts, though he himself has just a single W. Suarez has made four appearances (3 starts) in Colorado and has a 3.20 ERA in 19.2 innings there. The most recent was a 6.2 shutout inning performance in 2025. Kyle Freeland is a 33-year-old lefty in his 10th season with the Rockies and is in the middle of, perhaps, his worst season. He’s allowed 56 runs in 66 innings along with 88 hits. He does have 57 Ks against 16 walks, which is good. Although it’s also that batters aren’t waiting for a walk. They’re just hitting the ball. He’s from Denver, was drafted by the Rockies in the first round back in 2016, has played for his hometown team his entire career and is signed through this season, although there is a vesting option if he hits 170 innings. Neither strikeout rate or (18.7%) nor walk rate (5.2%) are particularly high, so there’s still something there. He just tossed 7.1 innings against the Pirates and only gave up 2 runs. But before that was 6. And before holding Milwaukee to 3 runs he was tagged for 6 but the Angels and 8 by the Dodgers. This feels like the “Danger! High ERA pitcher about to dominate Red Sox” start of the series.

Catcher Hunter Goodman leads the team with 21 homers.

Old friend Brennan Bernadino has a 3.86 ERA in 30 innings.

First baseman TJ Rumfield is slashing .280/.360/.475.

These aren’t the old Rockies with a big offense backed up by,well, poor pitching. But with a new front office maybe that will start to change.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Monday, June 22: Jake Bennett (4.79 ERA / 3.35 FIP) vs. Ryan Feltner (5.05 ERA / 4.96 FIP)

Tuesday, June 23: Sonny Gray (3.12 ERA / 3.88 FIP) vs. Sean Sullivan (10.29 ERA / 6.96 FIP)

Wednesday, June 24: Ranger Suarez (2.93 ERA / 2.84 FIP) vs. Kyle Freeland (7.36 ERA / 5.09 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Monday, June 22: 8:40 PM ET on NESN

Tuesday, June 23: 8:40 PM ET on NESN

Wednesday, June 24: 3:10 PM ET on NESN

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to open a series at Busch Stadium against the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday night, they also welcome back Nolan Arenado. We all have our memories of Nolan’s time with the St. Louis Cardinals, but I’d like to focus on one aspect of the man that had nothing to do with hie performance on the field. Nolan Arenado proved to the St. Louis Cardinals fans that he was and is a man of his word.

I remember February 1, 2021 like it was yesterday. I had a fellow baseball friend who was familiar with the Colorado Rockies that the St. Louis Cardinals were about to pull off a blockbuster trade to bring the likely future Hall of Fame third baseman to St. Louis. Once the details were released, I was floored at what then President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak was able to pull off. The St. Louis Cardinals received Nolan Arenado and mammoth cash considerations to the tune of $51 million dollars in exchange for LHP Austin Gomber, INF Elehuris Montero, RHP Tony Locey, INF Mateo Gil and RHP Jake Sommers.

My only concern at the time of the trade was the possibility of Nolan Arenado using the opt-out options that remained in his contract. I can’t remember which sports writer asked Nolan during one of the online interviews after the trade was announced, but the issue of the opt-out was brought up and Nolan said that he had no interest in using it. He said he had always admired the Cardinals and wanted to end his career in St. Louis.

Nolan Arenado had one opt-out option remaining in his Colorado Rockies contract and he was convinced to waive his no-trade clause and accept the St. Louis Cardinals trade by being given an additional opt-out option after the 2022 season. I remember looking at the third base market at the time thinking that Nolan could have made a fortune as a free agent. If you remember, Arenado was 3rd in the MVP vote after the 2022 season. However, in late October of 2022, Nolan Arenado said he would not opt-out of his St. Louis Cardinals contract. Even with his promises to stay in St. Louis, I was genuinely surprised that Nolan chose to stay with the Cardinals instead of obtaining an even bigger payday. I was already a Nolan Arenado fan, but those choices to honor his word made me an even bigger one.

We are all aware of the offensive decline in Nolan Arenado’s performance his final two seasons in St. Louis that was at least partially due to nagging injuries that he chose to play through. Natural age decline no doubt played a part also, but at the end of the day one of my best memories of Nolan Arenado will always be his desire to become a St. Louis Cardinal and keeping his promise to play out his contract as long as the organization wanted him. I have no doubt he’ll get a hero’s welcome back to Busch Stadium Monday night. He has earned it.

In mid-May, I went to a lovely afternoon game against the Padres. With a bowl of curry katsu from Tamari Bar and garlic fries in lap, surely, I thought, nothing could ruin such a pleasant day.

I was right, until the bottom of the eighth inning, when Rob Refsnyder was called to pinch hit for Dominic Canzone against a lefty reliever. A pretty normal decision, given that it is his actual, literal job.

As incensed as if someone had suddenly screamed directly into his ear, the man behind spent the next two minutes screaming directly directly into my ear. “You fucking suck! Rob Refsnyder, you fucking suck! Fuck you! Dan Wilson, are you fucking stupid? You’re worthless!” Never mind that Dan Wilson didn’t make the call, as he was ejected mid-way through the game. Never mind that we were only about 10 rows back from the field and not too far from the batters box, so his words were likely pretty audible.

On that day, Megan and I decided we were going to be big Rob Refsnyder fans. It’s been fun to root for a fellow Asian American and average height king! So, it brings me no joy whatsoever to say that the Refsnyder Era may have run its course. Like the Chicxulub impactor came for the Mesozoic and the dinosaurs, a knee injury and regression to the mean has come for Good Refsnyder.

A situation like this (a painfully underperforming, aging veteran signed to a $6m contract) always threatens to bring out the masses that howl for Jerry Dipoto’s head and that we need to fire Scott Servais NOW to turn this team around!! But, in fairness, criticism of the signing is in order.

True, Refsnyder had the 8th-highest OPS against LHP from 2022-2025 (min 500 PA), ahead of Mookie Betts and right behind Ketel Marte and Jose Altuve, good for a wRC+ of 155 during that time. However, it is also true that over that same time period, he ran a .377 BABIP against lefties and a .348 BABIP against righties. His career BABIP sits around .297, perfectly average, not indicative of some Williams-esque BABIP skill. It doesn’t take a Szymborski to see the cliff looming ahead of the Roadrunner-ing Refsnyder.

What Dipollander couldn’t have predicted, though, was that Refsnyder would suffer a vague but nagging knee injury that would bother him all season. That, plus some bad luck (a .149 BABIP feels a bit karmically heavy-handed here) has made Refsndyer the second worst batter this season by wRC+ (min. 100 PAs), his meager 26 beating out only Ke’Bryan Hayes’ 10 (!?).

Dan Wilson has recently referenced the veteran’s struggles recently in the most Dan Wilson-y way possible – standing by his Guys, vaguely but supportively.

“Every player has been through this at some point. [Refsnyder] continues to make his adjustments…we talk about the process a lot, and the process has been good. He’s getting good pitches to hit, he’s putting the barrel to the ball and he’s hitting the ball at people, and hit the ball on the ground a little bit. But you know, he’s close, and he’s had some big hits for us throughout,” Wilson said. “It’s a matter of trial and error and trying to find the right adjustment, and there’s no question that you know Ref is doing everything he can, and you know it’s coming soon.”

Wilson is never going to talk poorly of his players to the media, as he shouldn’t! It’s what makes him a great leader. But this feels more like Wilson supporting his player as a person more than true organizational faith being placed in Refsnyder turning this around now.

So, like it was for Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton (apparently), it’s time to make a decision. With the Mariners floundering around .500 and a precipitous grasp on the mediocre AL West, the Mariners can ill-afford to keep this roster spot on cruise control. I see two reasonable options here.

1. Refsnyder takes a phantom/sort of real IL stint. This would give him some time off the knee, which could help him in the medium-term return to at least being serviceable at the plate. In case some rest doesn’t help, the Mariners can take that time to try a couple different options and see who they feel most comfortable with taking those at-bats. A little more time to see Jhonny Pereda, Patrick Wisdom, or Brennen Davis (health permitting) surely couldn’t be worse than what we’ve been seeing from Ref recently.
   
2. Skip straight to the second part of option 1 and bid farewell to one of the several and truly Good Guys of recent Mariners history.

I’m inclined to go with option 1 here, as it gives the Mariners some time to kick the can down the road, which typically is a good thing – the more information you can gather before making roster decisions, the better. But something’s gotta give, and with the way Refsnyder has been playing, that roster spot has gotta be given somewhere a little more productive.

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Monday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.

Before locking in your MLB player props, here are the hitters I'm targeting to leave their mark tonight.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Shohei Ohtani	Over 1.5 total bases	-138
Jake Bauers	Over 1.5 H/R/R	-131
Kyle Stowers	Over 1.5 H/R/R	-124

Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-138)

“Colby, are you backing the power of dad because Shohei Ohtani just had a child?”

What? Now I am.

We back numbers here, folks. Off-field stuff is just a cherry on top. That said, I do love the great one this evening.

The number one rated hitter on Batters-Box today happens to be the Dodgers superstar, who continues to post some of the most delectable elite-rated trends.

In 133 elite road ratings:

• Hit: 75.19%
• 2+ Hits: 33.83%
• Home Run: 28.57%
• 2+ Bases: 59.9%

The great one has been on fire offensively as of late, posting a near 70% elevation rate while producing 77% hard contact and a 31% barrel rate over his last 30 road plate appearances. Over his last 90 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he also owns a .567 wOBA.

The Minnesota Twins send out right-hander Zebby Matthews, and like many others, we are still trying to figure out what a “Zebby” is. However, that is beside the point. Matthews owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate and has struggled badly against lefties. Over his last 60 lefties faced, he has a 9.00 ERA and 7.01 xERA while allowing 48% hard contact, a 16% barrel rate, and a 70% elevation rate. Those hitters have produced a .350 xBA, .644 xSLG, and .417 xwOBA against him.

This will easily be one of Matthews’ biggest tests of the season, and I fully expect Ohtani to take full advantage this evening.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MNNT, SNLA

Jake Bauers Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs (-131)

Entering today with an elite rating on Batters-Box is Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers, who has been producing so much hard contact that I had to back him in some form this evening. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he has generated 77% hard contact and a 15.4% barrel rate against right-handed pitching. Zooming out to his last 60 plate appearances, he still holds a 73% hard contact rate and a 13.3% barrel rate, while posting a .596 slugging percentage and a .428 wOBA.

He draws Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer, against whom he holds 82% arsenal coverage. At home this season, Singer owns a 5.61 xERA and 5.33 xFIP, allowing 42.2% hard contact and a 14.1% barrel rate to opposing hitters. Those bats have produced a .280 xBA, .527 xSLG, and .380 xwOBA.

If you are not in the juice-paying mood tonight, pairing Bauers with one of the other plays on the card sets up a strong plus-money two-leg parlay.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CINR, BREW

Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs (-124)

A consistently trustworthy hitter for his HRR prop is Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers, who enters with his 36th elite rating. In his previous 35, he has cleared this prop 54% of the time. At home, in 21 elite ratings, he has homered 28.57% of the time and gone over this prop 61.9% of the time.

The Fighting Fish slugger has been on a tear over his last 10 games, generating 63.2% hard contact, a 26.3% barrel rate, and elevating the ball 63.2% of the time. He also owns a .667 SLG, 1.109 OPS, and .471 wOBA in that stretch.

Stowers draws Rangers starter Kumar Rocker, against whom he has nearly 70% arsenal coverage. Rocker has consistently struggled vs left-handed hitters, who over his last 60 faced are producing 51% hard contact, a 12.2% barrel rate, and a 67% elevation rate, along with a .434 xBA, .826 xSLG, and .400 xwOBA.

I am trusting the trends tonight, and this feels like a strong spot for Stowers. If you are not a fan of laying juice, Stowers records a hit 71% of the time when he is elite. Pair him with Bauers for plus money.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MIAMI, RSN

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Tonight we start a three game series with the Astros and then four games with the Rangers all at Rogers Centre. And then Bo and the Mets come to town, to dazzle us with their vocal stylings.

They are pushing the starters back a day with the rain out. We will have:

Monday: Dylan Cease

Tuesday: Shane Bieber, making his first start of the season.

Wednesday: Trey Yesavage

Thursday: Kevin Gausman

Friday: Patrick Corbin

The Astros are fourth in the AL West at 37-42, but they are 10-8 this month.

The Rangers are much the same, 37-40 and 9-9 this month.

And, apparently, newly acquired Luis Urias will not be going to Buffalo, but will join the major league team because he had an ‘upward mobility’ clause in his contract. He had a date in his contract where had to be promoted to the majors or offered to other teams. I wonder who will be leaving to make room for him. I’m sure as soon as I hit publish, that news will come out.

MLB.com has “Three Questions The Blue Jays Must Answer Before The Deadline”.

1. Who is the #5 starter after the deadline?

We have more than a month before the trade deadline, many things can happen between now and then. Hopefully, none of those things will be injuries. Patrick Corbin has the job at the moment, but he’s had a rough time in his last 5 starts, with a 6.64 ERA, average just 4 innings per starts.

Jake Bloss has started on a rehab assignment. He might be ready to join the major league team by August. And Ricky Tiedeman has just started pitching, on his way back from Tommy John. He’s going to need longer that Bloss.

I’m sure the front office will be looking to see if they can make a deal for a starting pitcher.

• 2) Do the Blue Jays have something in Keys?

He does look like a good left-handed bat. The team has an abundance of lefty bats, but Keys has 18 home runs in just 64 minor league games, mostly with New Hampshire, but he’s in Buffalo now and hasn’t slowed down, .284/.411/.595 in 15 games. He can play first and third. We’ll know they are ready to bring him up when he starts playing some second base.

• Who are the likeliest trade candidates?

See question above. When I see the beat writers talking up a minor leaguer before the deadline, I starting thinking that they are shopping him. It would take a lot to make them give up JoJo Parker. Beyond that, for the right player, they would have to be willing to trade anyone.

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The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres meet tonight at Petco Park, with Grant Holmes struggling and Michael King looking to rebound from a rough stretch. 

While both Holmes and King haven't been great, I'm eyeing San Diego to come out on top here in my Braves vs. Padres predictions due to King's home form. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 22. 

Who will win Braves vs Padres today: Padres moneyline (-107)

The Atlanta Braves have pitched well this season, but Grant Holmes has been extremely inconsistent. Over his last five starts, he owns a 6.29 FIP while allowing 4.22 walks and 2.53 home runs per nine innings. The right-hander also owns a 5.39 FIP on the road and continues to struggle with both command and damage prevention.

Michael King's recent numbers are concerning, as he owns an 8.24 xERA across his previous two outings. However, the right-hander has pitched much better at Petco Park this season, holding opponents to a .216 average while posting a 3.30 ERA.

I don't expect either starter to dominate, but King has a clear opportunity to rebound at home while the San Diego Padres get to face a pitcher in Holmes who has consistently allowed traffic and home runs.

I'll play this pick up to -130.

COVERS INTEL: Holmes has allowed 7.94 BB/9 over his last two starts compared to his season average of 4.19 walks per nine innings. 

Braves vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 runs (+105)

With a modest total of just 7.5, there's value in the Over. Despite Atlanta's bullpen compiling a respectable 3.97 xERA over the last week, Grant Holmes still profiles as a pitcher who could allow three or four runs before exiting. The Padres are also squaring up the baseball lately, carrying a 41.2% hard-hit rate over their last six games.

Michael King also draws a difficult matchup against an elite Braves lineup. While Atlanta is batting just .235 over its last six games, its offensive talent is difficult to ignore against a starter who is prone to mistakes. The Padres' bullpen has also been shaky, posting a 4.22 FIP and 40.8% hard-hit rate over the last week.

There are multiple avenues for runs tonight.

I'll play this pick up to -120.

Braves vs Padres weather

First pitch temperatures are expected to be around 68°F with light 6.9 mph winds, 75.8% humidity, and no chance of precipitation. The cool marine air and minimal wind shouldn't provide much assistance to hitters, making this a fairly neutral-to-slightly pitcher-friendly environment.

Braves vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Braves -100 | Padres -104
• Run line: Braves -1.5 (+170) | Padres +1.5 (-178)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-104) | Under 7.5 (-108)

Braves vs Padres trend

The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 away games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.

How to watch Braves vs Padres and game info

Braves vs Padres latest injuries

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It’s kind of hard to believe that the final West Coast swing of the season has finally arrived and the season hasn’t even hit the All-Star break yet. Whether you consider that to be a blessing (that this won’t come in August or September) or a curse (that it’s usually rough going out there no matter what time of year it is), there’s no denying that it’s coming at a bit of a weird moment for the Braves.

It sure looked like things were hitting a bit of a nadir for the Braves after they dropped consecutive series to the White Sox (understandable), the Mets (annoying) and the Giants (concerning) with the Brewers looming in the near horizon. As it turned out, the Braves proved that they’re a resilient bunch and ended up taking a dramatic series win in order to salvage the homestand and also stop the bleeding in what had been a rough stretch of games.

Now, we’re going to see that resilience get put to the test. Will the Braves keep the good times rolling out West? Or will the state of California trip up the Braves yet again? It’s time to look at what lies ahead this week for the Braves.

June 22-24: San Diego Padres

Current Record: 39-37Projected Record (via FanGraphs): 80-82

I mean, it goes without saying that obviously we’d all like to see the Braves have the lead in the ninth inning for all three games this series. If they don’t or the game goes into extras, they’re more-than-likely going to see Mason Miller and opposing hitters have not enjoyed seeing Mason Miller so far this season. He’s currently sitting on an ERA of 0.87 (22 ERA-) and a FIP of 0.33 (8 FIP-. Yes, EIGHT. League average is 100, by the way) where he’s given up 13 hits and 12 walks opposed to 61 strikeouts across 31 innings of work. That is absolutely horrifying to deal with.

However, the Padres are in the unenviable position of a relief pitcher being their best player. Heading into Sunday’s action, Mason Miller (who is not an every day player) had produced 2.0 fWAR on the season in 30 games. Fernando Tatis Jr. (who is an everyday player) has produced 1.7 fWAR. That discrepancy basically sums up how things have gone for the Padres. They’ve got some solid pitching — Adrian Morejon is also incredibly tough coming out of the bullpen, Walker Buehler has been trying to get things back on track with the Padres and Michael King has a track record of success against the Braves. Combine that with the pitcher-friendly park factor at Petco Park and we could be in for some low-scoring games during this series.

That’s also assuming that the Padres continue to scuffle at the plate, themselves. It is a little concerning that this crew has started to heat up a bit — they’ve scored at least five runs in six of their last 10 games and they’ll be facing a Braves pitching staff that (while they did stabilize a bit in the series win against the Brewers) hasn’t exactly been in shutdown mode in recent times.

Of course, it’d be lovely if Atlanta’s pitching staff did round back into form but it’s still hard to dismiss a lineup that’ll include Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets and Ty France in it. Samad Taylor has provided some exciting moments as well and then you have the ever-looming threat of Manny Machado as well. Machado has been mostly scuffling so far this season but he’s got 13 homers so he could very well just pop one over the fence at any given moment. Grant Holmes, JR Ritchie and Martín Pérez will have to be on top of things in their starts this week.

Monday, June 22 at 10:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Tuesday, June 23 at 9:40 p.m. ET (BravesVision, Gray TV)
Wednesday, June 23 at 8:40 p.m ET (BravesVision)

June 25-27: San Francisco Giants

Current Record: 31-46 Projected Record: 74-88

The last time the Braves saw the Giants, they were busy hitting balls all around Truist Park and over the fences as well — which was surprising considering how difficult it had been for this team to hit for power on a regular basis. Whatever magic they had in Atlanta was completely lost by the time they made it to Miami to complete their East Coast swing, as the Marlins ended up sweeping them.

San Francisco hit two homers (Rafael Devers in the opener and Casey Schmitt in the middle game) over the course of those three losses — now mind you, they hit back-to-back dingers against the Braves twice across two games in one day, so you tell me what’s happening there (other than baseball being a weird sport). It’s not like the Marlins were rolling, themselves, since they had just got done dropping a series against the Phillies. I guess that’s why you play the game on the field and not on a spreadsheet!

In Cobb County, the Giants got contributions from their usual suspects like Luis Arraez, Casey Schmitt, Jung Hoo Lee and Matt Chapman but Rafael Devers also did a lot of damage as well. Obviously, keeping those guys quiet instead of letting each and every one of them run rampant at the plate will be key to Atlanta’s chances of getting some revenge in San Francisco. Bryce Eldridge might just be difficult to keep quiet at the plate no matter what, so there’s that. Either way, it’s already evident that when these guys get rolling, they can be dangerous.

The good news as far as pitching matchups go is that the Braves are going to avoid Landen Roupp and apparently everybody in Atlanta’s clubhouse should be thrilled about (probably) not seeing Robbie Ray again. The bad news is that the Braves will likely have to face Logan Webb, who has given the Braves serious trouble nearly every time he’s faced Atlanta. The lone two exceptions happened in 2023 but that was the season where the Braves were taking nearly everybody out back behind the woodshed so that appears to clearly be an exceptional case for the Braves. The rest of San Francisco’s pitching staff is vulnerable so assuming the Giants haven’t just completely figured out the Braves, Atlanta could do some damage in this series. We’ll see what happens!

Friday, June 26 at 10:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Saturday, June 27 at 9:05 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Sunday, June 28 at 4:05 p.m. ET (BravesVision)

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The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets kick off a three-game set at Citi Field tonight, and I’ve got a pair of MLB picks for the action.

My top Cubs vs. Mets predictions call for the Chicago offense to continue putting crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight against New York. 

Who will win Cubs vs Mets today: Cubs moneyline (-121)

The Chicago Cubs are heating up at the dish with a fifth-ranked wOBA, ISO, and xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.7 runs per game. 

Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga has also flipped the script with just a single run allowed and opposing hitters limited to a miniscule 19.3% squared-up contact rate and 3.5% blast contact rate across 10 2/3 innings over his past two starts.

The Cubbies are set for success against struggling New York Mets righty Kodai Senga, too. His 5.12 xERA ranks in the 17th percentile, and he has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings.

I’m confident backing the Cubs moneyline to -135.

COVERS INTEL: Shota Imanaga has the seventh-highest whiff percentage among qualified pitchers, and the Mets have the fourth-highest strikeout percentage in June, so I don’t expect New York to keep pace with Chicago in the series opener.

Cubs vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

I’m anticipating the Chicago lineup to do damage against Senga to pave the way to this Over. In addition to the highlighted offensive surge from the Cubbies, they’ve also gone Over their team total in 21 of their last 35away games (+6.10 units / 15% ROI).

The Mets are also ripe to cash in on statistical correction. New York ranks 23rd in BABIP with their .311 wOBA below their 12th-ranked .321 xwOBA to go along with a sixth-ranked hard-hit rate across the past 30 days.

This Over is the play to -120.

Cubs vs Mets weather

The forecast is clear with 73°F conditions, no chance of rain, and a steady 10-mph wind blowing in from left-center field.

Cubs vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -117 | Mets +113
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+138) | Mets +1.5 (-144)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-113) | Under 8.5 (+108)

Cubs vs Mets trend

The Cubs have covered the first five innings (F5) run line in eight of their last 10 games for +5.80 units and a 48% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets.

How to watch Cubs vs Mets and game info

Cubs vs Mets latest injuries

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Four games and four wins. That’s the track record of today’s starter for the Dodgers, Eric Lauer, as he gets ready to face the Twins in a second straight appearance against an American League team. The Dodgers knew exactly what they were getting after acquiring Lauer a little more than a month ago, and they have produced enough offense to take advantage of his serviceable but far from spectacular performances, beating the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Rays—three teams with a record above .500.

One predictable aspect of Lauer’s game that has appeared in this short period as a Dodger is his propensity to give up long balls. The left-hander has allowed at least one home run in each of his four starts since joining the Dodgers, totaling five of them and only eight earned runs. While he’s been able to finesse his way into productive performances, if the homers keep coming, a blowup is on the horizon.

Projecting this matchup against this Twins offense, don’t be fooled by their record below .500 in an underwhelming AL Central—it is primarily a byproduct of their lousy pitching numbers. The Twins come into this matchup averaging 4.91 runs per game, the second-highest mark in the American League, trailing only the Yankees. Specifically on the subject of home runs, one name stands out: Byron Buxton. The Twins’ star center fielder has homered seven times in his last 14 games, totaling 24 on the season. Lauer and the Dodgers pitching staff as a whole have their work cut out for them, trying to contain Buxton.

Monday’s game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Twins
• Ballpark: Target Field, Minneapolis
• Start time: 4:40 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Series Timing.

The series timing is better than expected for the Diamondbacks.  Recently, the Cardinals had a 3-game losing streak (17-19 June).  Last season, they collapsed in July (8 wins, 16 losses), and this season they seem to be starting their collapse in late June. 

Let’s compare the teams.

Offense. This season through 19 June, the Cardinals averaged more runs scored per game (4.55 vs 4.28 runs per game).

Runners Left On Base. This season through 19 June, the Diamondbacks left fewer runners on base per game (6.60 vs 7.27).

Defense. This season through 19 June, the Diamondbacks had the better defense (19 vs 13 OAA, 35 vs 11 DRS)

Bullpens. This season through 19 June, the Cardinals had more shutdown performances by the bullpen (77 vs 71).

Starting Pitcher Matchups. This season through 20 June, the Diamondbacks had the most quality starts (30 vs 28). In this series, if the Diamondbacks starting pitching is good, the odds are good that the Diamondbacks win at least two games of the four game series.

Cardinals Player to Watch.

JJ Wetherholt is the Cardinals’ top prospect.  In his debut season, he is playing second base.  His defense is outstanding (13 OAA).  His batting is outstanding (118 OPS+ with 10 homers).  His baserunning is outstanding (2 runs created by his baserunnning, with above-average extra bases taken and above-average stolen bases). If the season ended today, he would likely win the NL rookie-of-the-year award. 

Diamondbacks Player to Watch.

Brandon Pfaadt will return to the rotation. In the Majors, he has not started a game since April. Nevertheless, I feel positive vibes that he will return from the minors at his best. It will be a confidence booster that recently the Diamondbacks offense is on a hot streak ( 8 or more runs on 17, 19, and 20 June) and that he will face a pitcher who, in June, had an ERA over ten.

Pitching Matchups.

Monday, 4:45 PM MST.  

Merrill Kelly vs Andre Pallente.   In June, Pallente had the better ERA (2.41 ERA vs 8.27 ERA), and Pallente had more quality starts (2 QS vs 1 QS).

This matchup is advantage Cardinals.

Tuesday, 4:45 PM MST.  

Eduardo Rodriguez vs Kyle Leahy. In June Rodriguez had the better ERA (2.86 ERA vs 6.00 ERA), and Rodriguez had more quality starts (2 QS vs 1 QS).

This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.

Wednesday, 4:45 PM MST.  

(TBD, possibly Brandon Pfaadt) vs Matthew Liberatore.  In March/April, prior to pitching in relief, Pfaadt started 3 games. In his fourth start, he entered the game in the third inning and pitched 6.1 innings. In those four games, his ERA was 4.70. In those 4 games, he earned one quality start. If he had started the fourth game, it would have been a second quality start. On that bases, comparing Pfaadt and Liberatore, Pfaadt had the better ERA (4.70 ERA vs 10.45 ERA), and Soroka had more quality starts (2 QS vs zero QS).  Worth noting is that my expectation is that neither pitcher will be in the game at the start of the fifth inning. That is because Pfaadt is not stretched out, and 4.1 innings was the most innings that Liberatore pitched in June.

This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.

Thursday, 4:45 PM MST.  

Zac Gallen vs Michael McGreevy.  In June McGreevy had the better ERA (4.30 ERA vs 8.85 ERA), and McGreevy had more quality starts (3 QS vs 1 QS). Worth noting is that Gallen allowed 9 earned runs in his latest start, which makes me think that the odds are favorable that Gallen will pitch better than indicated by his June ERA.

This matchup is advantage Cardinals.