Category: MLB

There are multiple reasons why the Phillies have not advanced at all in the playoffs since their run to the World Series in 2022. The most cited culprit is the offense, the group of players that goes dormant almost every October once the bright lights come on and the pitching gets tougher. But there is a good argument to be made that the bullpens that were built each year to help supplement a terrific starting rotation have been equally as responsible for the earlier and earlier and earlier exits the Phillies have suffered.

This offseason, the task at hand is once again to create a bullpen that has enough firepower to last an entire season and still have some effective arms once the postseason begins should the Phillies find themselves playing once again. At the end of 2026, there seemed to be only two reliable arms that Don Mattingly would call upon when the games got close. Dave Dombrowski bears some responsibility for this, but he at least had tried at the beginning of last year to build a group that would be resiliant.

What lies ahead for the Phillies this offseason? Can they muster up enough players that would choose to come here to build something close to a reliable bullpen?

How to improve the Phillies: catcher
How to improve the Phillies: infield
How to improve the Phillies: outfield
How to improve the Phillies: starting rotation

Who they have

The hierarchy right now for the major league bullpen probably sits somewhere like this:

Jhoan Duran
Jonathan Bowlan
Alex McFarlane
Tim Mayza
Caleb Kilian

These are the five that I feel most comfortable saying will begin 2027 in the bullpen with a pretty iron grip on a job. There are others here that are available as options:

Pitcher	Minor league options remaining
Orion Kerkering	3
Tanner Banks	1
Chase Shugart	0
Kyle Backhus	2
Grant Holman	1
Nolan Hoffman	1

Then you’ve got the minor leaguers that are currently Rule 5 draft eligible, but do possess some skills that are of interest:

Pitcher	Left or Right Handed?
Estibenzon Jimenez	right
Christian McGowan	right
Wen-Hui Pan	right
Max Lazar	right
Andrew Hoffman	right

Notice what you don’t see a lot of?

Left handed relief pitching is going to be a priority for the team this offseason. I’d assume that that will be a target they spend a lot of time on as they poke around the markets. Hopefully, they find some that have minor league options as well.

Free agent market

My goodness, where does one begin?

The free agent market for relief pitching is rife with options. Many of those options are not going to be ones the Phillies are interested in for a myriad of reasons. Instead, let’s focus on things the Phillies could be interested in. We have seen a trend when they have traded for relievers at the deadline where they are looking for velocity. They have traded for pitchers like Jhoan Duran, Carlos Estevez and Gregory Soto since 2022, three arms that have the ability to throw a baseball at high speeds. They have signed Brad Keller and David Robertson, guys with (at the time) strikeout stuff. They definitely have a type. So if we’re to scour the free agent market in search of who would be the options they would want to bring in, we can start there.

John Stolnis did a great job at looking at left handed options the team could be looking at this offseason, so there’s no reason to rehash that topic. We’ll zero in on the right handed options that might make some sense.

Bryan Abreu – The assumption here is that the team isn’t really looking for closer types. They already have one in Duran that is arguably one of the five best relievers in the sport right now. Signing someone like Abreu would give them a pitcher from the right side that has shown quality strikeout stuff in the past, but maybe had a bit of a blip in 2026. Abreu’s rates all went in the wrong direction – walk rate up, strikeout rate down – which is a bit concerning, but not truly fatal. He was still getting chase on the mound thanks slider/four-seam combination that has the quality to induce it. Last year’s struggles may even have cost him some money and/or years on the free agent market, making him more of a target for a front office that isn’t really keen on giving on long deals.

Pete Fairbanks – Speaking of rough seasons. Brought in as a possible “one year, let’s trade him at the deadline” candidate for Miami, Fairbanks proceeded to have one of the worst seasons of his career from a baseball card perspective. From the point of view of looking at peripherals, Fairbanks feels like the perfect candidate for the “Dombrowski Special” where he signs a veteran reliever for one year and $10 million. He had some issues (too many walks, too much hard contact) that would maybe have teams look at him a different way, but has the potential to rebound with maybe some better healthy and/or a few tweaks to his arsenal.

Jason Adam – Having two different injuries at the end of two different seasons makes the prospect of signing Adam a bit hazy. He ruptured his quadriceps tendon at the end of 2025, then had a right shoulder strain in the middle of 2026. Those are some serious injuries, but Adam did come back healthy from both issues. When he was healthy, he had good looking numbers on the scoreboard, but under the hood, things are iffy. He struck out almost half the number of batters he did the year before while also seeing his home run rate jump. Could it be the tic he lost in velocity? Maybe, but there would probably be enough success in his past that the team could take a stab at him.

Jonathan Loaisiga – This might be one of the better under the radar buys for a team looking into a reliever. Loaisiga will not have the same whiff or strikeout rates as others, but take a look at that Savant page. That’s a lot of red from a guy that entered 2026 on a minor league deal. Whatever tweaks the Diamondbacks made to Loaisiga’s game worked wonders as he amassed a pretty impressive 2.42/2.88 ERA/FIP season. Consider also that the pitching coach for Arizona (prior to getting let go) was Brian Kaplan, a former assistant to Caleb Cotham. There may be some shared ideas that Loaisiga could carry over were he to choose Philadelphia as his destination. This feels like a good buy at a not exorbitant price.

Blake Treinen – If the Braves can have a free agent piece from the Dodgers, maybe the Phillies can get their own. Of course, they’d be getting the inferior option were they to get Treinen, but again, maybe that would also drive price down. Treinen vacillated between good and bad in his last two years with the Dodgers, walking too many and giving up too many home runs. He’d be coming here as a solid middle inning pitcher as opposed to the late game monster Evan Phillips might be with the Braves, but considering the needs the Phillies have in the bullpen, solid might be good enough.

Trade market

Now, here is where things can get interesting. Usually, teams don’t really want to make big trades for relievers until they see whether what they have built in the offseason is working or not. That way, at the trade deadline, they can adjust on the fly and make a move then. This, though, is a more unusual offseason thanks to the impending threat of a lockout. Teams have indicated that they might be more inclined to trade veterans in an effort to protect younger players that could end up being more valuable if a salary cap is instituted. So, there might be an unusual amount of veteran relievers on the trade block than usual.

That doesn’t mean we will see a blockbuster involving someone like, say, Mason Miller getting moved. Usually, when you see someone of Miller’s talent moved, it is for younger, more cost controlled players that were just mentioned as being possibly even more valuable post-CBA finalization.

Predicted outcome

There will be relievers.

Oh yes, part of this offseason’s moves, whenever they might happen, will be relievers entering the Phillies fray. One would have to assume that based on their comments, they are looking to get a few different relievers to add to the mix while also maintaining a spot or two to have the ability to cycle back and forth between Lehigh Valley if needed. That would indicate to me that signing one veteran to a major league deal is almost guaranteed, but having multiple options on minor league deals is an avenue that is being heavily explored. If any of these relievers that they are talking to have minor league options, that would probably vault them to the very front of the line in negotiations.

Me personally, I’d like to see them roll the dice and sign Jonathan Loaisiga and Steven Okert, then flood their roster with minor league deals of higher upside plays, looking specifically at guys that are maybe coming off injury. Names like Hunter Harvey, Robert Stephenson, players of this ilk that might be fine with playing in Lehigh Valley with some kind of out clause to try and rebuild value that the Phillies can either use or discard if necessary.

When speaking to the media earlier this week, David Stearns identified first base as an area the Mets would look to upgrade, either with a full-time player or a platoon partner for Jared Young. Since then, two names have popped up as potential fits for that role: Alec Bohm and Ty France. 

France is coming off the best offensive year of his career after some time spent in the wilderness. After a strong start to his career, including an All-Star appearance in 2022, France hit the skids with authority. After signing with the Mariners for a $6.68 million deal ahead of the 2024 season, he was placed on outright waivers in July, putting up -0.2 bWAR. He continued to struggle with the Reds, with whom he signed for the remainder of that season. After a slightly better season in 2025 split between the Twins and Blue Jays, France returned to the club he broke in with, the Padres, on a minor league deal and put up one of the best years of his career. 

In 2026, France batted .295/.363/.502 with 21 home runs and 24 doubles. France is entering his age 32 season, and will likely be riding that to the biggest payday of his career. 

Bohm is in a very different situation, having lost most of the luster on what was once a solid, if unspectacular, big league career with the Phillies. Bohm’s 2026 line of .249/.315/.383 with 15 home runs looks miraculous when compared to his early season struggles, where he carried a .433 OPS through the first six weeks of the season. 

Bohm is also not a natural first baseman, though calling him natural at any position is somewhat misleading. However, compared to his butchery at third base, first base for Bohm makes a lot of sense. Bohm logged 424.2 innings at first base in 2026, committing six errors and putting up one Defensive Runs Saved Above Average. 

Either of these players would be competing with the aforementioned Jared Young, who impressed on both sides of the ball in his extended look last season due to the departure of Pete Alonso and the non-entity that was Jorge Polanco. Young batted .266/.330/.429 while playing 641.2 innings at first. 

There’s an outside chance that Polanco would get another crack at first base, but it seems like DH or bust for Polanco in 2027.

While Seiya Suzuki’s market with the Seattle Mariners seems genuine, the M’s are more known for the road of reclamation than diamond-shaped pegs in diamond-shaped holes. OF Dylan Crews has been discussed as a “popular name in trade talks” according to multiple reports, including Washington Nationals beat writer Spencer Nusbaum of The Athletic. The right-handed hitting 24 year old has above-average range, checking boxes with every consecutive descriptor in this sentence for Seattle’s goals this winter. Seattle and Washington have well-aligned surpluses and needs, giving these rumors enough heft to consider in greater detail.

Crews is better known than most 79 wRC+ hitters with a .217/.285/.363 line with 225 big league games under their belt. The No. 2 overall pick in 2023 was co-stars with RHP Paul Skenes on a staggeringly dominant Louisiana State University squad which won the College World Series. Raised in the suburbs of Orlando, FL, Crews was considered a shoo-in, high-floor prospect with his mature, high-OBP approach, excellent athleticism, and oodles of contact paired with laser-sharp contact. He debuted in 2024, after starting the year in Double-A Harrisburg and could have easily been the heartbeat of the new era of Nationals baseball.

Instead, he’s seemingly on the block. That’s because his progression at the plate has been what many scouts feared. Here’s what the Baseball Prospectus scouting team had to say for Crews ahead of the 2024 campaign, see if you can spot the harbinger:

The second-overall pick in last year’s Amateur Draft, Crews is viewed by many as the best collegiate position prospect since Adley Rutschman. He already looks like a polished, five-tool player, flashing strong exit velocities with regularity, showing great bat-to-ball skills and excellent strike zone judgment. The glove should play in center field and Crews’ speed should make him a threat on the basepaths. You need to squint to find a weakness in his game, but it’s possible that a propensity to hit the ball on the ground might make his over-the-fence power simply good as opposed to elite. Crews demolished low-minors pitching before finishing the season with a brief stop at Double-A. He has an outside chance of making his major-league debut late this year and should be thrilling fans in the District of Columbia for years to come.

It’s the grounders, stupid. Hard contact on the ground is better than middling contact on the ground, to be sure, but if you’re hitting the ball hard into the dirt you’re sacrificing the extra-base hit potential many players need to thrive in a league where high-level defensive athleticism and size comes more standard each year. This was the concern with Crews, as it has been with many otherwise exceptional talents, including Julio Rodríguez. For the Nats, that had to change.

After disappointing 2024-25 campaigns, Washington made a bit of a statement by sending Crews down to Triple-A Rochester at the end of spring training. The goal there was to work on improving his mechanics and getting the ball into the air more. Working with Rochester hitting coach Shawn O’Malley, under the visitations and guidance of Nats minor league director of hitting C.J. Gillman (who is, you may recall, now the Mariners hitting coach), Crews had the best minor league stretch of his career by expected outcomes, and earned a May call-up back to the bigs.

And yet… the breakout didn’t quite come. While it was his best big league season at age 24, and not injury-hampered by the oblique malady that waylaid his 2025, a .223/.289/.374 line with an 82 wRC+ in 443 PA across 109 games is more fourth outfielder than second coming. You really can read into his line what you want to see, which makes it so tough to evaluate what Washington might want for him, though they’ve seemed to invest in James Wood, Daylon Lile, and Jacob Young as their trio of primary outfielders.

Do you buy Crews as the slugger in the clip below, who chopped his groundball rate by over 10% from the year before and remained within the navigational beacons at a 24.2% strikeout rate? Might we see a leap forward since he undershot his xwOBA by over 20 points, put up strong barrel and hard hit rates, and spent much of this year still getting used to mechanical adjustments? And is his above-average in-zone contact rate enough to draw a contrast between him and the inevitable Jarred Kelenic concerns?

Or do you see the pedestrian walk rates since turning pro and fear the balanced profile that made Crews such a dynamic threat is simply not cut out for big league ball. Kelenic concerns may not derive from his contact rates per se, but the fact that he’s done nearly all his damage thus far on fastballs. Perhaps you like his lefty-mashing ways, but don’t want to see Seattle pay a premium for essentially a weak-side platoon bat.

If Crews were a Mariner already, it’d be enough to sell me on at least another part-time role. But acquiring him would require moving one of their starting pitchers, almost certainly. It would likely cost Bryce Miller or Emerson Hancock to make the move, working in part off what our sister site Federal Baseball put together as value options for some potential trades. Getting a will-be-25 year old who won’t reach arbitration until at least 2028, with a peerless pedigree and a floor as a solid defensive outfielder who can cover every position and spell Brendan Donovan or Lazaro Montes is highly appealing.

But is he worth Seattle’s time to acquire? I am on the fence. If you see Crews as taking somewhat incremental strides forward the way hitters often do, I’m still hesitant. Baseball Prospectus sees Crews more favorably, having him as a league-average hitter by their Deserved Runs Created+ metric, accounting for his batted ball profile beyond just his results. That makes him already a big league regular, given good foot speed and glovework, with the upside for genuine excellence that’s rarely available at this age.

In a season Seattle might not get tons of time to acclimate due to the owners planned lockout, acquiring a corner outfielder who is already well-known by part of the coaching staff is an added edge. But wow, Crews has to hit, and in a season at long last likely make or break for Jerry Dipoto, it’s a big leap to put perhaps your primary upgrade of the season on a guy who’s next big year in the pros will be his first.

According to reporting from Spencer Nusbaum of the Athletic, the Nationals are unlikely to hand out multi-year deals to relief pitchers. Given how bad the bullpen was last season, this is probably not what fans want to be hearing. The Nats bullpen was truly painful to watch last season. With that in mind, not shopping at the top of the market is a risk.

Also in The Athletic this AM: Rumblings on the Nats’ plans to improve their pitching next year, including details on an analytics department that they are becoming more confident in by the day: https://t.co/4wszWRh3kG

— Spencer Nusbaum (@spencernusbaum_) November 12, 2026

While this is a risky move, and will not be popular with fans, there is logic behind this decision. Relievers are very volatile from year to year. Even the best bullpen arms in the sport can have sudden, unexpected fall-offs. A lot of the more analytically minded teams in the league do not love handing out big contracts to relievers, especially ones in their 30’s.

Last offseason was a great reminder of why some teams are hesitant. A lot of big name relievers signed large contracts early in the offseason. The likes of Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, Robert Suarez and Ryan Helsley all signed multi-year deals. Out of those four pitchers, Suarez was the only one who lived up to his contract in year one. 

Reliever contracts so far this offseason:

Edwin Díaz – 3/69
Devin Williams – 3/51
Robert Suárez – 3/45
Ryan Helsley – 2/28
Emilio Pagán – 2/20
Kyle Finnegan – 2/19
Raisel Iglesias – 1/16
Phil Maton – 2/14.5
Gregory Soto – 1/7.75

— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) December 11, 2025

Meanwhile, Williams, Diaz and Helsley all posted ERA’s over 4. Phil Maton and Kyle Finnegan also struggled in the first year of their deals. There were some hits, such as Suarez, Luke Weaver and Tyler Rogers. However, giving these bullpen arms big money is a risky investment.

Arms such as Adrian Morejon, David Bednar and Alex Vesia would certainly win the headlines for Paul Toboni, but would they be worth the money? Morejon is going to be the most expensive, but he would also be the one I am most confident in. He does not turn 28 until February, and averages almost 100 MPH from the left side. There will be a crazy bidding war for him though, so I doubt the Nats end up winning that.

While Bednar and Vesia both have a long track record of success, history tells us they may not work out. Both of them have lost velocity over the past few years. It has not harmed them yet, but as they get deeper into their 30’s, that could be a concern. That is the type of thing Paul Toboni is absolutely paying attention to.

Even in Nats history, we have seen the risk of signing these relievers to long-term deals. The most prominent example of this is Will Harris. After five great years with the Astros, the Nats signed Harris to a 3-year deal starting in his age 35 season. His body did not hold up into his mid-30’s, and he only ended up making 28 appearances for the Nats.

We have laid out the risks of signing these relievers to multi-year deals now. However, there is a big risk in not taking action. This Nats bullpen set the all-time record for blown saves in 2026. You cannot just run back the same unit and expect different results.

The Nationals have blown 38 saves this season, setting the MLB single-season record.pic.twitter.com/KWcNTz84Bn

— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) September 9, 2026

Paul Toboni will have to do something to fix this bullpen. He started that process at the trade deadline, but that has to continue into the offseason. A pricey one-year deal for Raisel Iglesias is something I suggested yesterday. As the saying goes, there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

Obviously, that is not totally true, but there is logic behind that saying. Even if the player is bad, it only hurts you for one year. The team does not get anchored to a player who they quickly realize is not someone they want. I think this is the best way to find an impact arm while minimizing the risk.

Another option would be to make a trade for bullpen help. The Nats did that last trade deadline, but they went for unproven options. Will Dion looks like a hit and Yovanny Cruz clearly has potential, but the Nats need more.

If Paul Toboni were to trade for a reliever, it would have to be an established big league arm, preferably one with high leverage experience. In one of my Dylan Crews mock trades, I sent him to the Angels for Samy Natera Jr., a young, controllable bullpen piece who has already shown great swing and miss stuff. A trade along those lines makes a lot of sense, and seems like it would be in Toboni’s wheelhouse.

There is a world where Paul Toboni could make a good enough bullpen without giving out a multi-year deal. However, he would have to get creative to get that done. If the Nats signed Iglesias and traded for Natera, I would be very bullish on the bullpen entering 2027.

It is worth noting that there are some pieces currently on the roster. I like Orlando Ribalta, Will Dion, Erik Tolman, Brad Lord and Riley Cornelio. However, there is still a clear need for true high leverage guys. If Paul Toboni finds one or two more arms, I think the ‘pen would fall into place nicely. I understand not wanting to shell out a multi-year contract, but there still needs to be big moves to complete this bullpen.

The Colorado Rockies have plenty of work to do this offseason, and their most pressing need is hardly a secret. Starting pitching should be at the top of the front office’s shopping list. In fact, it would be absolutely forgivable, reasonable and perhaps even commendable if all the Rockies focused on this offseason was pitching.

But what about the position-player side of the roster?

The Rockies made significant strides on the offensive side of the ball in 2026, and much of their position-player group appears fairly well established heading into next season. Still, a closer look at the numbers reveals some interesting opportunities.

A look around the diamond

Colorado Rockies positional production, 2026

Position	fWAR	wRC+	MLB fWAR rank
Catcher	+2.9	103	12th
First Base	+2.2	117	15th
Second Base	+1.5	96	18th
Shortstop	0.0	66	30th
Third Base	+1.8	94	20th
Left Field	+0.3	85	27th
Center Field	+1.4	90	21st
Right Field	-1.0	84	29th
Designated Hitter	-0.6	89	22nd

FanGraphs team batting leaderboards, using production accumulated while playing each position.

Shortstop, designated hitter and the corner outfield stand out, but not every position necessarily needs an outside addition.

Ezequiel Tovar is signed long-term and finished 2026 on an encouraging note, hitting .285/.323/.447 with a 98 wRC+ over his final 45 games.

Connor Norby and Adael Amador provided excellent production down the stretch, posting 123 and 119 wRC+, respectively, from August through September. Both should get plenty of run at second base and also figure into the designated hitter rotation.

But what about the corner outfield?

Trouble in the corners

Jake McCarthy certainly didn’t look like a player contributing to the 27th-ranked left field in baseball. He hit .292/.333/.462 with a 104 wRC+ and accumulated 1.2 fWAR in 278 plate appearances while playing the position.

Mickey Moniak was even more productive offensively, posting a 118 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR in 163 plate appearances in left field.

McCarthy also contributed 0.6 fWAR in just 56 plate appearances while playing right field.

Yet Colorado finished with just 0.3 fWAR in left field and -1.0 in right, ranking 27th and 29th, respectively.

So what was dragging down the overall production?

The right-handed disparity

Separating the corner-outfield results by batting side reveals a pretty striking difference.

Rockies corner-outfield production by batting side, 2026

Position	Batting side	PA	wRC+	fWAR	MLB fWAR rank
Left field	Left-handed	587	99	+1.4	10th
Left field	Right-handed	73	-10	-0.9	29th
Right field	Left-handed	360	93	+0.2	22nd
Right field	Right-handed	302	71	-1.1	29th

FanGraphs positional splits. Excludes 11 left-field plate appearances by Willi Castro and two right-field plate appearances by Cole Carrigg, both switch-hitters. Rankings reflect total fWAR rather than playing-time-adjusted rates.

Colorado’s left-handed hitters actually ranked 10th in left-field fWAR. Meanwhile, Jordan Beck accounted for all 73 right-handed plate appearances there, hitting just .134/.192/.179.

In right field, Beck and Tyler Freeman combined for -1.1 fWAR in 302 plate appearances.

And the right-handed struggles weren’t limited to the corners.

Across all three outfield positions, Colorado’s right-handed hitters combined for just four home runs, a 54 wRC+ and -2.5 fWAR in 499 plate appearances. Both the wRC+ and fWAR ranked dead last in MLB.

Of course, handedness doesn’t tell the whole story. McCarthy, a left-handed hitter, batted .319/.372/.524 with a 133 wRC+ against lefties in 182 plate appearances. But the rest of Colorado’s left-handed outfield options struggled in smaller samples, with Moniak, Troy Johnston and Zac Veen posting wRC+ marks of 39, 43 and -60, respectively, against left-handed pitching.

Some of that poor right-handed production is already off the roster. Freeman and Brenton Doyle have both departed, with Cole Carrigg taking over in center field.

Carrigg produced 1.1 fWAR while playing center and another 0.7 in limited opportunities at shortstop. His value at those premium positions makes a full-time move to a corner seem counterintuitive, at least without another dependable center fielder.

That leaves Beck as the Rockies’ most obvious remaining right-handed outfield option. He’s still young and hit 16 home runs in 2025, but his 2026 performance hardly makes a compelling case for handing him another starting job. Even against left-handed pitching, he managed just a 98 wRC+ with a 34% strikeout rate and an unusually high .455 BABIP.

Keeping Beck around is defensible. Relying on him simply because there aren’t many alternatives is another matter.

The left-handed tilt extends beyond the outfield. Colorado had just 12 plate appearances from right-handed hitters while playing first base in 2026.

The more you look at this roster, the more it seems like there’s a player down in Triple-A who might fit rather nicely.

A Condon-sized hole

Charlie Condon (No. 2 PuRP) certainly looks capable of helping.

The former No. 3 overall pick hit .273/.390/.514 with 27 home runs, 98 RBI and 79 walks in 130 games at Triple-A Albuquerque in 2026.

Condon also happens to be a right-handed hitter with experience in the corner outfield and at first base, with designated hitter offering another possible fit.

It’s a pretty tantalizing combination given Colorado’s current roster.

I expect we’ll see Condon in the majors sometime in 2027, and there’s plenty of reason to be excited about what he could contribute. But he’s yet to make his MLB debut and isn’t currently on the 40-man roster.

And while an impressive spring could change the equation, I’m not convinced beginning the season in Colorado would necessarily be the best move unless the Rockies are prepared to give him regular playing time.

That uncertainty makes exploring the free-agent market worthwhile.

Finding the right fit

The Rockies aren’t likely to pursue an established outfield star like Randy Arozarena, but there are more modest options worth exploring.

One approach would be adding a right-handed corner outfielder who can punish left-handed pitching.

Austin Hays fits that description. Over the past two seasons, he’s produced a .952 OPS in 158 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, compared to .672 against righties. Injuries remain a concern, but his experience in both outfield corners and strong throwing arm make him an interesting, potentially inexpensive option.

Another approach would be improving the outfield through contact, speed and defense while creating more flexibility for Carrigg.

Myles Straw hit just .241/.304/.342 in 2026, but struck out only 13.3% of the time and ranked in the 97th percentile in sprint speed. He also recorded four Outs Above Average after posting 10 in 2025.

Straw’s offensive limitations are obvious, but his range could be particularly valuable at Coors Field. A dependable center fielder would also allow Carrigg to play right field or elsewhere without sacrificing defense in center.

Jake Meyers offers a similar possibility, recording 13 Outs Above Average in 2024 and nine in 2025. His offense declined in 2026, and injuries complicate his outlook, but he could be worth a look on a minor-league deal with a spring-training invitation.

Neither Straw nor Meyers would solve Colorado’s offensive shortcomings on his own. But defense, baserunning and roster flexibility offer other ways to improve the outfield beyond simply adding another power hitter.

What happens next?

These are just a few names I find interesting, and there are certainly other possibilities worth exploring.

Maybe the Rockies stick with Beck until Condon is ready. Maybe they make a trade, or perhaps they’re comfortable moving forward with a predominantly left-handed outfield and Carrigg providing some balance.

There are plenty of ways this could play out.

But given just how little value Colorado received from its right-handed outfielders in 2026, I’d like to see the Rockies bring in some competition. It doesn’t have to be an expensive signing or a long-term commitment. Just someone capable of raising the floor while the younger players work to earn their opportunities.

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Jesse Rogers talks to J.J. Picollo about team needs.

The Royals want to balance their lineup after finishing in the bottom third of the league against left-handed pitching last year. A right-handed-hitting outfielder would be a nice acquisition.

“Right-handed stands out,” GM J.J. Picollo said. “We have a lot of left-handed hitters, particularly in the outfield, so a right-handed-hitting outfielder would be really helpful, especially if they can play center field a little bit.”

Lane Thomas didn’t finish the year for Kansas City, yet he led the Royals in home runs from right-handed-hitting outfielders. Pairing another dangerous hitter from the right side with Bobby Witt Jr. can only help balance things for the Royals.

Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena are the top hitters in free agency, but might price themselves out of Kansas City. 

Sam McDowell writes the Royals need to produce a team worthy of their MVP candidate, Bobby Witt Jr.

“I think when I’m at my best is whenever we’re winning,” Witt said in a Zoom call this week, answering a question about the team after being asked about himself. “… And so I think the next step is just getting back to doing that.

“I think we need to do that sooner rather than later.”

This is the flip side of the trade deadline conversation, or even difference of opinion, that we had over the summer. The Royals held tight to their starting pitching staff at the trade deadline, all but telling teams not to call. They instead determined their window absolutely is now, because that player is here now.

Well, then the time better be now.

It would be a shame to waste, right? That has been a driving force, maybe even the driving force, behind big-picture strategy for an organization that declined an opportunity for a reset and instead marched ahead. Look, it’s not as though that belief defies logic — in Witt, the Royals have the general to follow.

But the team needs to follow.

David Lesky writes about the left-handed free agent reliever market.

Looking at all these stats in one, I come back to the same conclusion I had when I was writing the free agent version of JJ for a Day. I think the best options that fit cost and need are Minter, Soto, and Okert. I suppose you can add in Vesia, but I just sort of assume he’s going back to the Dodgers. Alvarado is a pretty decent upside play, but I would pay him a lot closer to the 5.86 ERA he had than the peripherals. That’s both because he doesn’t have the best past as a teammate with his PED suspension, but also because a near-6.00 ERA isn’t worth paying for, even if the data shows it probably shouldn’t have been so bad.

I totally get if Okert gives too many Matt Strahm vibes, getting whiffs and chases with less than elite velocity. He also really only has the one plus pitch in terms of stuff, and that’s his slider. But if they signed Minter, Okert, or Soto, I’d be a happy camper, and I think the Royals would be too.

Pete Grathoff reports on Royals game times for 2027.

The Royals announce their weekday home games (Monday to Thursday) in 2027 will begin at 6:40 p.m. Ditto for the Friday night games in April, May and September. In June and July the Friday games will start at 7:10.

— Pete Grathoff (@pgrathoff) November 9, 2026

The Missouri Supreme Court rejects a challenge of the Royals stadium deal by some lawmakers.

The Red Sox sign free agent first baseman Jake Bauers to a four-year, $58 million deal.

Atlanta signs reliever Evan Phillips to a three-year, $35 million contract.

Ranking the top ten free agent hitters available.

MLB Pipeline writes about prospects on each team that could be protected from the Rule 5 draft.

The White Sox are moving Grant Taylor to the starting rotation.

The Nationals are receiving trade interest in Dylan Crews.

The Rangers are in the mix for Japanese free agent Teruaki Sato.

The Padres signed former Royals farmhand Ryan Weiss to a one-year deal.

The Cardinals aren’t interested in trading Masyn Winn or Alec Burleson.

MLB Advanced Media employees vote to unionize.

The Blue Jays will meet with free agent Tarik Skubal.

The Cubs, White Sox, and Padres are interested in Japanese free agent Kaima Taira.

Where do the Yankees go from here?

MLB players could dissolve their union and file an antitrust lawsuit under a “nuclear option.” [$]

North Carolina State football hires Phillip Rivers as their head coach.

The Eagles grant Hollywood Brown his request and release him.

James Gunn’s DC Universe will be dismantled after his firing.

Mike Myers is writing a fourth Austin Powers movie.

The FAA grounds all planes in the U.S. over nationwide communications issues.

Your song of the day is Rush with New World Man.

Heading into the 2026 season, all eyes were focused squarely on Nolan McLean as the Mets’ best young arm with the brightest future. Following his brief but eye-catching stint with the club in 2025, he was seen as the de facto future ace of the rotation and the team’s top pitching prospect. Furthermore, Jonah Tong had rocketed up the prospect rankings and debuted himself in 2025, and names like Jack Wenninger, Jonathan Santucci, and Zac Thornton had Mets fans excited about the team’s future.

As a result, Christian Scott flew under the radar. It’s not necessarily surprising: He last suited up for the team in 2024 and missed all of 2025 after undergoing a combined Tommy John surgery and internal brace procedure. Memories are short in the sports world, and it’s easy to forget Scott was the team’s fifth-best prospect (by Amazin’ Avenue’s rankings) heading into the 2024 season. That’s the year he got the call to the show, and while his numbers weren’t anything to write home about—a 4.56 ERA, a 4.60 FIP, and a 1.24 WHIP in 47 1/3 innings across nine starts—he enjoyed some really great starts (including his debut, which saw him allow one earned run over 6 2/3 innings) and did enough to warrant some anticipation and buzz.

Fast forward 18 months, and Scott was finally ready for his big comeback. Pitchers returning from Tommy John Surgery is always unpredictable, so it’s hard to know if the glimpses Scott showed in 2024 would still be there again. Scott, unsurprisingly, did not break camp with the club, but it didn’t take long for the right-hander to get his chance. Scott got the call to start on April 23 and stuck with the team throughout the remainder of the year, establishing himself as one of the Mets’ more reliable rotation options.

His first game back was a modest one, as he went 1 1/3 innings against the Twins as he allowed one run, walked five and struck out one. After that, however, he performed well, making 23 starts and posting a 3.85 ERA, a 3.61 FIP, a 1.27 WHIP, 134 strikeouts, 47 walks, and 1.7 bWAR in 110 innings of work. Across the board, he was a much better pitch and improved in some key areas of his game that he struggled with in 2024.

If there’s one thing you could point to as an area for improvement for the right-hander moving forward, it was the walks, which was noticeable from that very first start. Among 120 major league starting pitchers with at least 100 innings under their belt in 2026, Scott had the 18th-highest BB/9 (3.85) and the 19th-highest BB% (9.9%). In his 23 starts, he walked at least three batters six times, and at least four batters four times. Contrast that with 2024 (albeit in a much smaller sample size) when he posted a 2.28 BB/9 and a 6.1% BB%.

Walks aside, he had a really solid year. He worked around trouble a lot and saw a lot of traffic on the basepaths, which is something to work on moving forward, but he was generally great about run prevention (someone alert David Stearns) and kept damage to a minimum. In fact, he did not allow more than four runs in any of his nine 2024 starts, and he kept that streak going throughout his comeback season. He allowed exactly four runs in three of his 23 starts, three runs in eight of his starts, and two runs or fewer in the other 12. When all was said and done, he set a franchise record for most consecutive starts allowing four runs or fewer to begin a major league career, an ongoing mark which now sits at 32 games. Scott also, importantly, stayed relatively healthy after losing almost two full seasons, though his season did end early due to knee inflammation. Beyond that, he stuck around and pitched every five or six days as expected, setting a new benchmark by throwing 110 innings.

Another area where we saw a big improvement from Scott was his ability to limit home runs. In total, surrendered 12 homers across his 23 starts, and finished the year with a 0.98 HR/9. That mark is 40th among the 120 starters with at least 100 innings, and it’s an especially big improvement from his 1.52 HR/9 from 2024. In fact, he surrendered eight home runs in just nine starts, and 18 long balls combined between 18 major league and Triple-A starts. That’s something you love to see from a guy who struggled with surrendering home runs in the past, and is a trend you hope to see continue.

And that brings us to the last eye-catching number from Scott’s 2026 season: the strikeouts. Scott struck out 14 across his first two major league starts in 2024, but sat between two and five punch outs in each of his next seven. He finished that year with a 7.42 K/9 and a 19.8% K%, which is fairly respectable. However, he saw a huge improvement in his ability to strike out batters, finishing 2026 with a 10.96 K/9 and a 28.3% K%. Going back to our trusty rankings of major league starters with over 100 innings in 2026, he was eighth overall in K/9 and 15th in K%. He matched his single-game high with eight strikeouts twice and struck out at least six batters in 16 of his 23 outings.

Scott’s four seam fastball remained his primary pitch, and he utilized it quite effectively this season. He utilized it 47.1% of the time in 2026 while posting a 27.6% Whiff% and 21.6% PutAway% on the four seamer (comparatively, he threw the four seamer 52.9% of the time in 2024, with a 22.0% Whiff% and a 20.5% PutAway%. The pitch was especially effective against right-handers, though slightly less so than in 2024. This year, his four seamer carried a Pitch Run Value of +2, compared to +4 in 2024, and it remained a -1 both years against lefties. One of his best weapons was his sweeper, which he selectively used 22.8% of the time (an increase from 18.8% of the time in 2024) but was one of his deadliest pitches. He posted a 30.9% Whiff% with his sweeper, the best among all his pitches, to go along with a 23.6% PutAway% (compared to a 23.5% Whiff% and 12.0% PutAway% in 2024.

Where Scott really excelled was with a pitch he hardly used in 2024: his cutter. He only threw the cutter a total of two times at the major league level in 2024, but it became an extremely effective tool for the right-hander. Scott tossed his cutter 23% of the time against lefties (+6 pitch run value) and 12% of the time against righties (+1 pitch run value). He used it 18.9% of the time overall and had a 25.0% Whiff%. However, it was his best put away pitch, as he finished the year with a 25.7% PutAway% with the cutter. His Cutter had his best Run Value among any of his pitches at 8. He also introduced a Curveball for the first time, though it was one of his less effective pitches, with a -3 Run Value, a 14.8% Whiff% and a 12.5% PutAway%, his lowest among his 2026 pitches.

Overall, Scott demonstrated marketable improvement in several areas, including Whiff% (21.7% in 2024 to 27.0% in 2026, Barrel% (10.5% in 2024 to 6.1% in 2026), and average exit velo (89.2% to 86.8%). In each of these areas, he went from poor/average to great, and his Baseball Savant page showcased him jumping to much more elite metrics across the board.

Scott has certainly positioned himself for a spot on the team’s 2027 rotation alongside McLean and some of the team’s other young arms, like Zac Thornton. There are a couple of areas you’d like to see him improve upon, including the walks and his ability to pitch deep into games. Because he ran such high pitch counts, he ended up only pitching into the sixth in seven of his 23 outings, and he failed to complete five innings of work in 12 of his 23 appearances. You’d certainly like to see him get beyond the fifth inning a lot more frequently, but beyond that, there’s a ton of positives to take away from Scott’s season, and if he can remain healthy and build upon his success, Mets fans should get used to seeing a lot more of him on the mound in the future.

Hello friends and happy Saturday! Let’s get to the latest from around the league with the weekend now underway.

In Mariners news…

• Lou Piniella is on the upcoming Eras Committee ballot for the Hall of Fame. Isabelle Minasian made the case for his induction this year.
• Adam Jude at The Seattle Times highlighted potential infield options for the Mariners as they seek upgrades this winter.

Around the league…

• Jake Bauers turned his breakout season into a major payday, inking a four-year, $58M deal with the Red Sox.
• Rob Manfred says the A’s new Las Vegas ballpark is coming along nicely with gates still on track to open in 2028.
• Dodgers executive Farhan Zaidi became the latest person to speak out about Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Santander’s comments against the Muslim community.

Anders’ picks…

• Nick Berardini at The New Yorker told the harrowing tale of how Jontay Porter lost his NBA dreams to a gambling addiction.

The General Manager’s Meetings held yearly for MLB executives, agents and players usually kicks off the free agent and trading season between baseball’s end and baseball beginning for the next year. This year is a bit different with an expected labor stoppage and lockout beginning late Dec. 1.

This might be the only chance for all the interested parties to meet before Spring Training begins in 2027, whenever that may be. Super agent Scott Boras even moved up his yearly address to the media that features his puns and stories. Normally, the GM Meetings is a lot of baseball business for the executives. Reviewing rule changes, assessing goals, discussing plans but not a lot of action with players.

As it turns out, this one looked very similar. The thought that lots of free agency business would be carried out turned out to be a myth. But there was some progress made for the San Diego Padres.

A.J. Preller adds some spice

We all know not to expect any details or specifics from anything Preller says during any of his media sessions. He is usually vague and talks in circles for the most part. This time he did a lot more of the same but was willing to be specific about wanting to re-sign Michael King. He will have no definite timeline for Yu Darvish but trusts him to do what is right for the team. Darvish will let them know if he is pitching next year at an appropriate time and is putting his family first.

Preller is in consistent contact with Joe Musgrove and they will have a plan in place for him in the next couple of weeks.

He detailed the decision to pass on Nick Pivetta’s option, saying they are still interested in a reunion but with a different contract. The unspoken message is that Pivetta is not necessarily healthy, and the team needs protections.

Most importantly, Preller said that the team payroll plan will be set after returning from the meetings. They were feeling out the market, talking to all players and agents about the parameters and where contracts will fall, numbers-wise.

Preller, Vice President Josh Stein, CEO Erik Greupner, and owners Kwanza Jones and José E. Feliciano will set the payroll and budget for 2027 based on the needs and players on the wish list. 

Preller was asked if he wanted three or four starters for the roster and he replied, “keep going.” He also specified a need to add a bat and to shore up the bullpen that has lost Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon to free agency.

The rumors continue to fly regarding the Padres being interested in Tarik Skubal. It was even leaked that Skubal will meet with Padres owners and executives next week in Orange County. Scott Boras is the agent for the ace starter and would not schedule a meeting if he didn’t think the team was serious. It seems a stretch, considering all the needs the team has, that Skubal would be a fit.

More wiggle room

The Padres have a little money coming off the books this year and even more the next two years. The new owners have signalled to baseball their willingness to invest in winning. The word flexibility was used by Preller when describing his payroll situation this offseason. 

Assuming the Spotrac numbers to be correct, the Padres have approximately $208.6 million committed, using estimates for the arb and pre-arb players. The 2026 payroll settled at $260.7 million by the end. If they are just aiming to keep the payroll level for 2027, that gives the front office $52 million to add in salary. If they are willing to go above last year, there is even more wiggle room.

Those numbers include Darvish and all three catchers. There remains a stubborn rumor going around that one of the three catchers will be part of a trade package. Preller even mentioned the popularity of his catchers when discussing how nice it was to have three on the roster.

Japanese players are on the list

The Padres are said to be heavily involved in the free agent Japanese players heading to MLB. The rules are a bit different regarding free agency for Teruaki Sato, Kaima Taira, and Hiromi Itoh. They must sign before the Dec. 1 deadline if they want to play in 2027.

To me, Itoh seems particulary attractive and is considered the safest bet of the two pitchers available. He is a workhorse who throws strikes and could fit directly into a rotation without a lot of adjustments.

Limited trade options

The Padres have some talent in the minors but most have not come into their own yet, if they ever do. Preller always manages to find someone who wants some of his minor leaguers, but it’s getting harder the more he trades away. The major league roster leaves little that is tempting that the team can spare. The two most mentioned names are Jake Cronenworth and one of their two backup catchers, Luis Campusano and Freddie Fermin. That might be enough to get a back-end starter or some relief help. The idea of trading Mason Miller for a starter seems ridiculous if the team really is trying to win.

Preller on the Prowl

The next three weeks could be wild or disappointing. Depends on which way the market decides to fall when it comes to gambling on the new CBA terms. But the Padres seemed to be signaling a willingness to be busy and fill out at least part of their roster before everything comes to a screeching halt. Given the budget to work with, Preller could get a lot of players marked off that wish list.

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Padres News:

• Some would say Manny Machado had a down year. Others would say it was another season with 30 home runs and an example of his consistency. Lincoln Zdunich has a position in that debate and that is reflected in his grade for Machado’s 2026 season.

• AJ Cassavell of Padres.com recaps what was learned about the Padres’ approach to the offseason during the GM Meetings.

• The Padres have one returning starter and nothing to bring up from the minor leagues to address their rotation needs, so they will have to spend.

• The Padres, Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs have all shown interest in adding the same Japanese starter according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Baseball News:

• Here are the latest rumors from around MLB.

• Jake Bauers departs Milwaukee and heads to the Boston Red Sox on a four-year deal.

• The Los Angeles Angels re-signed catcher Tyler Heineman to a one-year deal.

• Ja-Wook Koo is looking to make the move from the KBO to MLB.

It’s a mere formality Tarik Skubal will reset the standard for highest-paid pitcher in Major League Baseball. And deservedly so.

Skubal posted two of the most dominant seasons in recent baseball history in winning consecutive Cy Young Awards in 2024 and 2025. The left-hander doesn’t turn 30 until next week. Viable starting pitchers are running shorter in supply every year, and the cost for the highest-end talent continues rising.

Topping Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million pact (and Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324 million record for a player drafted and developed in the USA) will happen soon, almost certainly before Major League Baseball shuts down the industry Dec. 1. Skubal is slated for meetings with a handful of teams next week, most notably the Los Angeles Dodgers, who acquired him at the August trade deadline for a championship run that ended in the National League Championship Series.

But Skubal will join the $300 million ($400 million?) pitcher’s club toting an injury history a little more extensive than the average mega-ace. He famously had Tommy John surgery in April 2016 while pitching at Seattle Pacific, recovered and was shrewdly drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the ninth round in 2018.

Just as he was evolving into a potential ace in August 2022, Skubal’s second full season in the majors was disrupted by flexor tendon surgery, which limited him to 15 starts in 2023.

And his bid for a third consecutive Cy Young Award was derailed in May, when he underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his throwing elbow, undergoing an innovative nanoscope procedure that enabled his mound return in just 32 days – and maintain his value heading into free agency.

A team could regard Skubal’s health history in multiple fashions.

On the positive side: He’s had his Tommy John surgery, albeit a decade ago, and has cleared his other hurdles and remained dominant.

A more negative orientation would revive the bromide that past injury is the greatest predictor of future injury.

Yet what can the 10 largest pitching contracts in major league history teach us about how healthy these elite arms were when they signed life-changing pacts, and how they held up after?

We know this much: Four of the 10 highest-paid starters ever won World Series with the teams that signed them. Two more reached the World Series in the life of their contracts.

And the jury is still out on three contracts just getting started – including one ace waylaid by a major injury.

 A look at the 10 largest contracts signed by starting pitchers, and how these deals aged for team and player:

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers: 12 years, $325 million

Signed: December 2023, age 25

Résumé at time of signing: Three-time Ejii Sawamura winner (Japan’s Cy Young equivalent) and three-time NPB MVP

Pre-contract health flags: Reportedly pitched through elbow pain in renowned high school tournament, dropping him to fourth round of NPB draft. Revised training methods apparently quelled the pain. Dodgers contract contains opt outs after 2029 and 2031 but are pushed back to 2031 and 2033 if Yamamoto undergoes Tommy John surgery or is on the injured list for 134 consecutive service days due to right elbow injury.

Post-contract health: Missed three months in June 2024 due to strained rotator cuff.

Post-contract performance: After 2024 IL stint, he’s been one of the game’s greatest pitchers and a crucial and selfless piece of the Dodgers’ consecutive World Series titles in 2024 and 2025. Two-time All-Star, World Series MVP, 2.61 ERA in 76 starts.

Outlook: The World Series trophies make this deal worth every penny already, with plenty more in the offing. Take his three-year sample into account and Yamamoto has a strong case as the best pitcher in baseball.

2. Gerrit Cole, Yankees: Nine years, $324 million

Signed: December 2019, age 29

Résumé: 2019 AL Cy Young runner-up, major league-leading 326 strikeouts, three top 10 Cy Young finishes, career 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings

Pre-contract health flags: IL stints in 2014 (right shoulder fatigue, right lat fatigue) and 2016 (triceps muscle strain, posterior elbow inflammation)

Post-contract health: Underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2025, a year after missing three months of 2024 season with elbow inflammation. Returned to rotation in May.

Post-contract performance: Won 2023 AL Cy Young Award and finished second in balloting in 2021 while making three consecutive All-Star trips. Has struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings, with a 3.19 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and was Game 1 starter for club that reached 2024 World Series.

Outlook: A nine-year deal for a pitcher is almost guaranteed to invite health woes, but Cole was superb before Tommy John surgery and looked crisp in his get-the-lead-out half-season this year. On balance, deal has been and should continue to be great.

3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: Seven years, $245 million

Signed: December 2019, age 31

Résumé: 2019 World Series MVP, three-time All-Star, career 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings, 30-8 record in 2016-2017.

Pre-contract health flags: September 2010 Tommy John surgery, eight IL stints between 2013-2018 (neck, back, elbow, oblique, lat, shoulder, cervical nerve)

Post-contract health: Underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in August 2021, a malady that essentially ended his career.

Post-contract performance: Strasburg made just eight starts from 2020-2022 as he battled direct and indirect effects of TOS. He officially retired in April 2024.

Outlook: An up-and-down health saga for Strasburg reached a sad conclusion, just as he’d reached the apex of the sport with a dominant World Series-winning performance. His talent was so overwhelming and ceiling so limitless that the Nationals re-upped him twice, first a $175 million extension and then the $245 million pact after he exercised an opt-out.

4. Max Fried, Yankees: Eight years, $218 million

Signed: December 2024, age 30

Résumé: Three-time All-Star, 3.07 ERA in eight years with Atlanta, World Series champion

Pre-contract health flags: August 2014 Tommy John surgery, IL stints in 2023 and 2024 for left forearm strain, left forearm neuritis

Post-contract health: Spent two stints on IL, totaling 10 weeks, in 2026 for left elbow bone bruise

Post-contract performance: Other than his bone bruise, Fried has been excellent for the Yankees, posting a 2.83 ERA in 52 starts over two seasons and winning 19 games, earning an All-Star nod, in 2025.

Outlook: He’s been about as good as the Yankees envisioned, and while there’s still six more years remaining, the contract length has more to do with knocking down the average annual value ($27.3 million) for luxury tax purposes.

5. David Price, Red Sox: Seven years, $217 million

Signed: December 2015, age 30

Résumé: Cy Young Award winner, two-time Cy Young runner-up, five-time All-Star, 104 wins, 29.3 WAR in first seven seasons

Pre-contract health flags: One IL trip (strained left triceps) in 2013.

Post-contract health: Missed three months in 2017 due to elbow strain, inflammation. IL trips for wrist (twice) and hamstring.

Post-contract performance: Price was initially the workhorse Boston envisioned, leading the major leagues in starts (35) and innings (230) in winning 17 games in 2016. He was a significant figure on their 2018 World Series championship club, winning 16 games with a 1.14 WHIP and then three more in the playoffs, two in the World Series. He never pitched more than 107 innings in a year again, getting shipped to L.A. in a salary dump tied to the Mookie Betts trade with the Dodgers.

Outlook: Overall, a solid sign that lent credibility and length to the rotation, eventually netting a championship in the second season Chris Sale joined forces in the rotation.

6. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: Seven years, $215 million

Signed: January 2014, age 25

Résumé: Two Cy Young Awards and a runner-up finish the previous three seasons, 77 wins, 1,206 strikeouts and a 2.60 ERA by age 25.

Pre-contract health flags: Did not appear on injured list in first six major league seasons.

Post-contract health: Amazingly, Kershaw’s first start under his new deal resulted in his first IL appearance – though the fact it involved a long trip to Australia might have contributed to the inflamed muscle in his back, forcing a five-week absence. That would be a bit of a harbinger: A herniated disc in his back sidelined him 10 weeks in 2016 and a lower back strain cost him six weeks in 2017. He’d hit the IL for back issues in 2018 and 2020, as well.

Post-contract performance: Kershaw put up arguably the greatest season of his career in the first year of the deal, winning 21 games with a 1.77 ERA, throwing a no-hitter and winning his third Cy Young Award. The Dodgers won their first World Series since 1988 in the final year of his deal, the COVID-19 shortened 2020 campaign. His numbers over the life of the contract: 98-30, a 2.26 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings.

Outlook: The deal made Kershaw a Dodger for life, in a sense, and remarkably, he had virtually zero arm problems in that span – brief IL stints for shoulder inflammation and biceps tendinitis. His aching back cost him dozens of starts, but never enough to shut him down for a season nor slow down a career that ended with Kershaw as one of the greatest left-handed pitchers of all time.

7. Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks: Six years, $210 million

Signed: December 2024, age 30

Résumé: 2021 NL Cy Young winner, five top 10 Cy Young finishes, four-time All-Star, averaged 208 strikeouts, 197 innings his last three seasons before free agency.

Pre-contract health flags: One IL appearance for a strained oblique.

Post-contract health: Underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2025, sidelining him 15 months.

Post-contract performance: Still waiting on that after Burnes headed to the operating table just two months into this deal. He returned this past September and made three starts, and should be poised for a relatively normal 2027.

Outlook: Definitely not what you want. But the dark pragmatist might note that Burnes got his TJ out of the way, and there’s still four years remaining on this deal.

8. Max Scherzer, Nationals: Seven years, $210 million

Signed: January 2015, age 30

Résumé: 2013 Cy Young Award winner, two-time All-Star, 39-8 record, 3.02 ERA, 10.2 strikeouts per nine in final two years before free agency.

Pre-contract health flags: Two very brief absences in 2009, 2012 due to right shoulder strains.

Post-contract health: Four IL stints of one to three weeks in 2017 (neck inflammation), 2019 (back, rhomboid strains) and 2021 (groin inflammation).

Post-contract performance: Consecutive Cy Young Awards in 2016 and 2017, followed by second- and third-place finishes. Posted a 2.75 ERA in 200 starts, striking out 11.8 batters per nine over 1,297 innings. Won World Series championship in 2019.

Outlook: Wow, what a deal. Strasburg’s injury and other breakdowns ended Washington’s run of playoff appearances and Scherzer was traded to the Dodgers in 2021; he eventually ran into back and other problems as he reached his 38^th birthday in 2023. But he was virtually perfect for the life of this contract and the Nationals got a World Series title out of it.

9. Dylan Cease, Blue Jays: Seven years, $210 million

Signed: November 2025, age 29

Résumé: Two top five Cy Young finishes, including AL runner-up in 2022, when he led the league in WAR. Led AL in strikeouts per nine innings in 2021 (12.3) and the major leagues in 2025 (11.5).

Pre-contract health flags: No major league IL stints since July 2019 debut.

Post-contract health: Landed on IL for first time in May, missing two weeks with a hamstring strain. Placed on IL in late September with shoulder inflammation.  

Post-contract performance: A fine first season in Toronto for Cease, who finished runner-up to Cam Schlittler in AL Cy Young voting after posting a 2.40 ERA, leading the AL in FIP (2.56) and strikeouts per nine (12.7). Walks remain an occasional thorn, as he’s yet to throw a 200-inning season, but Cease has so far been the ace the Blue Jays hoped for.

10. Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: Six years, $206.5 million

Signed: December 2015, age 32

Résumé: 2009 AL Cy Young winner, 2015 NL Cy Young runner-up, six 200-inning seasons, 48.9 WAR, 3.35 ERA in first 12 seasons. A 19-3 record and 1.47 ERA with the Dodgers in final season before opting out.

Pre-contract health flags: No arm trouble from pitching, but Greinke was sent to the IL with a broken collarbone after taking on Carlos Quentin in a 2013 bench-clearing brawl.

Post-contract health: Greinke maintained his rubber arm rep through the life of the contract, with just an oblique strain in 2016 and a neck strain in 2021 sending him to the IL.

Post-contract performance: Greinke wasn’t as dominant as his brief Dodger stint but remained precise, posting a 1.10 WHIP and walking just 1.8 batters per nine over the life of the contract. The Diamondbacks reached the playoffs in his first year and he started in their wild-card game victory. Two years later, they dealt him to Houston, where he made five playoff starts, including a World Series Game 7 duel against Scherzer. Greinke was a member of the Astros’ playoff rotation in 2020 and during another World Series run in 2021.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tarik Skubal will smash big-money record. What does history say about the risks?

Once again, awards season has come and gone without a Phillies player being named a victor. Cristopher Sanchez was the closest, finishing second in NL Cy Young voting, though even that was close as Chris Sale finished hair’s breadth to him in third. In NL MVP voting, the team had three players on the ballot with Sanchez finishing 8th, Kyle Schwarber finishing 11th and Bryce Harper a distant 15th in voting.

The question for today is: who is the next player from the Phillies that will win a major award? When it comes to the big ones of Cy Young and MVP, those feel difficult for the anyone on the team to attain considering the great players that populate the National League right now. My eyes would be looking at the Rookie of the Year award, focusing on Aidan Miller and Francisco Renteria. Those seem like the two players that might actually have a shot at doing something with that award.

I was one of those fans surprised (yet not surprised) with the Evan Phillips signing. I can squint and see it working out, but it was probably one year and/or $2 MM AAV too much. With one reliever signed, the focus shifts to whether or not Raisel Iglesias returns. There is probably a number there that would make me comfortable with that. But another thought brings me to two pitchers that are recovering from injuries. Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach could serve anywhere from starters to swingmen to multiple inning guys to high leverage. That is, assuming they can pitch at all in 2027.

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Alex Anthopoulos has already told us that he’s not counting on either to start the year in the rotation. But there is a lot of room between being a starter out of Spring Training and pitching at all. Spencer Strider has a career 3.45/2.83/2.72 in the first time through the order. That will definitely play and will play up in a one to two inning outing. Schwellenbach’s numbers are a juicy 2.04/2.79/2.91, which honestly sounds like a lot of fun in high leverage. Of course, if these guys can’t start, the rotation options after Chris Sale are young Didier Fuentes, the Grant Holmes Experience, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Joey Wentz, JR Ritchie, and Owen Murphy. This is assuming Tyler Mahle doesn’t return.

So how many relief innings will the Braves get from Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach? Will the Braves put them in a position to pitch fewer than three innings at a time? Will injury force their hand? See, this is why I wasn’t super excited for the offseason this year. Too many questions and too much time.

Meet the Mets

The Athletic listed the options the Mets have for filling their first base hole this offseason.

Zac Thornton’s somewhat unusual pitch arsenal helped him achieve major league success this season.

Around the National League East

Battery Power analyzed the Evan Phillips signing and the state of the Braves’ bullpen.

Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh underwent wrist surgery in October and is now ready to resume baseball activities.

The Marlins are reportedly showing interest in free agent lefty pitcher Patrick Sandoval.

Federal Baseball argued that the Nationals should sign Raisel Iglesias to fill a hole in the team’s bullpen.

Around Major League Baseball

One of the first prominent free agent signings has come from the Red Sox, who have inked first baseman Jake Bauers to a four-year, $58 million deal.

ESPN broke down the latest free agency news for all thirty MLB teams.

MLB.com contemplated which players will have the chance to be a first-time winner of either the Cy Young or MVP awards next season.

Another international player is looking to make the jump to the majors, as Korean outfielder Ja-Wook Koo has hired representation to help him explore a move.

Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Santander issued an apology for his anti-Muslim social media posts from last week.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Thomas Henderson recapped the 2026 season for now-former Met A.J. Minter.

This Date in Mets History

Bing Devine—who would go on to add several of the players who would go on to play major roles on the 1969 Miracle Mets—was hired as president of the Mets on this date in 1966.

I have the sense that this will be a wildly (or perhaps mildly?) unpopular take, but I like the Jake Bauers deal.

I was surprised to hear it happened but that may have had more to do with seeing any extensive activity right now, given the unknowns of the impending lockout. It may also have been disbelief at seeing the Red Sox make a quick move; we all know how they like to watch and wait during the offseason.

Let’s look at the objections to the signing and take them on, one by one.

Objections

Bauers only had one good year

Until recently, he had a pretty unimpressive stat sheet: playing for five teams in eight years, never hitting higher than .235 in any season, or hitting more than 12 home runs, or batting in more than 48 runs prior to 2026. His strikeout rate, always elevated, nearly reached 35% in 2023 and 2024. In fact, he planned to retire, only coming back to the sport due to the need for health insurance.

He started turning things around with a strong September in 2025. His career year, the outlier, was 2026, when his slash line was .266/.389/.484 with 26 home runs and he was named the MVP of the NLCS. He was a big contributor to the Brewers winning the World Series.

So was 2026 a fluke? Time will tell but we can say, despite his struggles, that he has some solid underlying metrics.

• He’s always been disciplined at the plate, with a career walk rate of 12.64%
• He wasn’t just lucky in 2026—his Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) of .371 is in the 93rd percentile and backs up his production (.389 OBP / .873 OPS)
• Since 2023, he’s had an excellent barrel rate, that beautiful combination of exit velocity and launch angle

The Sox already have a first baseman

They have a first baseman, Willson Contreras, who could use a backup. The Sox have essentially had a fragile ecosystem at first base for several years now. Don’t get me started on poor Triston Casas.

The Sox already have a DH

The hell they do.

Bauers is a poor fielder

Well, he was acquired to be the designated hitter, so his fielding doesn’t bother me too much. He’ll serve as a backup to Contreras at first.

He does play multiple positions (not necessarily well) but that works with the overall philosophy of having players who can slot in and give guys time off, or be available in case of injury.

What about Triston Casas?

God bless him. I love the guy, I’ve written about him many times, and he’ll probably always be The One Who Got Away for me. I wish it had turned out differently. I loved him as a player and an individual but we can’t count on him at this point because of his health. Breslow said he’s “optimistic” Casas will play winter ball in the Dominican Republic but there’s no date for that since he’s still not healthy enough. Breslow did the right thing by not taking him into account as an option for first base, at least for now. We’ll see what happens with him (and I wish him all the best).

Bauer’s age, or the contract’s age…something won’t age well

Can we give up on this argument, please? The very financial structure of the sport is predicated on a time-based model; young players are typically cheaper players, and as players bank more time in their career, the more they can expect to earn (up to a certain point in time). Once players arrive at the point in their career when they can truly cash in on this system with a lucrative multiyear contract, they are typically “in their prime.” That implies they are at or near their peak. Logically, no peak lasts indefinitely. In evaluating the performance of professional athletes, when does “decline” start and how steep will it be? The ageing process is full of unknowns, as is much of life. Multiyear contracts given out to mid-career players are part of doing business in baseball. Trying to sit that one out would mean passing on all the free agents and that’s not a world I want to live in.

This brings me to the main objection.

It’s a risk

Dan said it; others including Ryan Phillips of Sports Illustrated have said it. I don’t mean to sound flip, but what isn’t a risk? Until we’ve played the games and toted up the stats at the completion of a season, everything is an unknown; nothing is guaranteed. Risk, schmisk.

I would argue that the opposite of taking a risk is doing nothing. Haven’t we had enough of that? I have.

This is the first significant signing of 2026 free agency. It’s also notable that the Red Sox were involved in the very first trade of the 2026 offseason, when they sent Nate Eaton to the Athletics, the day after the World Series (the first eligible day). For several years now, fans have begged the front office to do something.

This is what doing something looks like.

It’s also not a pivot move, à lasigning Ranger Suárez in the wake of the Alex Bregman fiasco late in the 2025 offseason. This time, Breslow moved decisively and early. The Red Sox weren’t beat out by a more competitive bid and won’t be Interest Kings this year. We can confidently say that this is the move Craig Breslow wanted to make.

As with any move, whether in baseball or in life, it may turn out to have been the wrong one. We won’t know that for a long time.

But there’s something to be said for making the first move. I suspect it’s the first hand of several Breslow will play. It may even be the forcing move for finally addressing the no-longer-tenable situation in the outfield, since Bauers can play the corner positions in a pinch. It may also mean moving on from Masataka Yoshida. Breslow probably should have ironed out these sticking points in the roster already but I believe he’s going to do it now. One piece at a time is a good way to begin. Alex Speier has already reported that Duran is being shopped hard and presumably Breslow has lots of other balls currently in the air, a few of which will come to fruition.

As I said when Breslow traded for Adley Rutschman at the trade deadline, the Red Sox are making significant moves and I’m on board. I find it a breath of fresh air. Let’s go.

We’ve had a relatively busy last few days, with Shohei Ohtani finishing second in National League MVP voting and climbing up the all-time award share leaderboard, Yoshinobu Yamamoto voted fourth place for the NL Cy Young Award, and old friend Evan Phillips joining the Atlanta Braves bullpen for three years, $35 million, outpacing several contract projections.

The Dodgers this week also hired Pedro Guerrero as a hitting coach, replacing the departing Aaron Bates on the major league staff. Guerrero has coached the last nine years in the majors, and before that was a minor league player and coach in the Dodgers system.

Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic talked to Guerrero and others about the new hire, including Miami Marlins manager Clayton McCullough, the Dodgers former first base coach and previous minor league coordinator:

“(He can) meet guys where they are,” McCullough said. “He is a good listener. That’s where he really does his best work. Some of those conversations, either in the cage during the day, with just trying to have a guy be in the best spot mentally that he can be for that given day. Then in the game, not letting some of the anxiety or some of the stress (pile up) for a player, he helps alleviate a lot of that.”

Links

Sam Miller at his Pebble Hunting newsletter wrote about various ways the Dodgers have been beatable, and along the way detailed the various ways baseball is essentially impossible to guarantee a particular outcome.

What has become an annual treat is Davy Andrews at FanGraphs perusing various baseball news items to chronicle various instances of teams saying essentially “we tried” as a way to placate an unfulfilled acquisition. This offseason’s first such instance appeared to come this week.