Category: MLB

The trade deadline is near and the Phillies have work to do. There are multiple holes that can, and should, be filled by the time to clock ticks to 00:00 on August 3rd, which means there needs to be a scouring of rosters around the game. Several problems are present though, the most glaring is – who are the sellers?

The presence of the third wild card has made this question harder to define than at the deadlines we grew up with. Teams might feel like they’re still in it, thus requiring them to either hold serve or actually acquire pieces to go for a shot at getting into the playoffs and seeing what havoc they can cause. It leads to a shortfall of teams that have accepted their fate and put themselves on the market as sellers with players to move. However, there are some clear teams that have fallen out of contention and have the players that match up with what the Phillies are looking to do.

We can name the needs the Phillies have this trade deadline with relative ease:

• a fifth starter to give them decent starts each time he toes the rubber
• at least one (preferably two) reliever to add to the bullpen, that reliever being someone that can be trusted in the eighth inning
• a bat, preferably right handed, that can help get on base at a reasonable rate that would help raise the team’s current .303 OBP as a team

The tricky part to all of this is payroll. The team, according to Roster Resource, currently sits at a smidge over $321 million in payroll counting towards the luxury tax penalties. Since they have cleared the third threshold of that tax, we can conservatively think that every dollar added to the payroll at this point would be double in terms of the luxury tax they would have to pay at the end of the season. While putting the best team on the field should be the goal of the team, we’d be delusional if if didn’t figure the money part into the trade deadline into the equation. So, if the team is going to be acquiring a player, they had better be getting some bang for their buck.

However, there are still some teams that they can dance with at the deadline that can help them. Here are three.

Colorado Rockies (Fangraphs playoff odds: 0.0%)

The Rockies stink, yet have a direction for the first time in seemingly years. They have accepted they are bad and will move players to finally try and be good in the future. Considering how their past few trade deadlines have gone, that is a radical change for them. Even with how bad they have been, there are several pieces that could fit what the team is looking for.

The most desirable piece the Rockies have is Hunter Goodman, their All-Star catcher who is currently third in the majors with 31 home runs. He would add the much needed power to the lineup that would come from the right side. He’s running a walk rate below 10%, not exactly the remedy to the problem the Phillies have, but that could be overlooked since he hits the ball really hard and really far. Then there is the fact that Goodman is a catcher, which might sound like an issue with a team that has J.T. Realmuto ensconced at the position, but Goodman has played in the outfield before. That move to the outfield full time might not be easy on the defensive eyes, but since when have the Phillies worried about team defense?

The cost of acquiring Goodman would be exorbitant, possibly too high for what the Phillies would be comfortable with doing. It would mean putting Gage Wood on the table at the bare minimum, plus several more names that occupy whatever top ten list you wish to adhere to. He might be exactly what the team needs, but it’s probably pie in the sky thinking.

After Goodman, the team could look at the starters they have. Since the spot in the rotation the Phillies are looking to fill is pretty specific, several players could fit the bill. Michael Lorenzen and Tomoyuki Sugano could at least act like adults in the fifth starter’s spot for the Phillies, not the sexiest names on the planet, but also at least capable of giving them decent outings each time they toe the rubber. Looking into the bullpen, Antonio Senzatela has been much better this season since moving there full time, seeing jumps in all of his peripherals in addition to his fastball velocity. Juan Mejia throws really, really hard, averaging 97 mph with his fastball, but with nary a semblance of where it is actually going (see: 11.2 BB%). Victor Vodnik has always had the velocity the team likes from their bullpen pieces, but if you thought Mejia didn’t know where the strikezone was, Vodnik might be worse. If they wanted to add someone to the outfield mix, someone like Brenton Doyle, though maybe a year or two too late, would fit the bill as a right handed option, but would he be better than what Derek Hill is currently providing? Old friend Mickey Moniak has 16 home runs, but his walk rate is under 6%. He’s also left handed.

There are some decent pieces that might give the Phillies some depth pieces that they could control beyond this season, but as far as needle moving trades, outside of Goodman and maybe Senzatela, there isn’t much that would be added to the team’s potential playoff roster. They match up decently and wouldn’t have to part with much in terms of high level prospects (again, outside of Goodman), so perhaps there is a match to be made.

Kansas City Royals (Fangraphs playoff odds: 0.3%)

Another team that has fallen into the doldrums this year is the Royals. When the season began, they were at least mildly interesting as a potential AL Central pick were they able to continue with their plan of solid rotation, Bobby Witt and lots of hope to win the division. Unfortunately for them, if something could go wrong for them, it has. Witt has been an MVP level player, but everyone else has fallen apart. They still have him to build around, as well as some offensive pieces like Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino, but the rest of the roster has struggled or gotten hurt. They are another team that has a few things that could help the Phillies.

Naturally, the easiest player to think of is Lane Thomas. Signed to a one-year deal this offseason, Thomas has hit to a not spectacular, but not horrible .240/.337/.409 line for the season. He would be an option the team could look at to help in the outfield as part of a platoon with someone in right field, whether that someone is Gabriel Rincones, Jr. or if they simply say that he is the starter and move forward from there. Is that a needle mover for the team as far as boosting the outfield as is? Maybe not, but it would be more of a raising the floor than anything else.

On the pitching side, they might be a team that is able to act on Michael Wacha as a starting pitcher. It would fall into the “solid, but not spectacular” type of move that makes those fifth starter issues disappear. Get into a playoff series that require four starters and there is a real conversation that, were they able to acquire Wacha, he would be a better option to start that game over Aaron Nola. He’d also have team control through 2027 and 2028, the latter of which would come in the form of a team option, so this wouldn’t just be a move concerned about this season alone. It would also be setting up the rotation for the next season as well. Is that something the team would want to do, locking in another spot with little flexibility?

For relievers, there are a few that should draw interest. Daniel Lynch is a power left handed reliever having a solid season for the Royals. He handles left handed hitters with ease and has shown an effectiveness against right handers as well, even if they have hit him a bit better. One thing to note is that he keeps the ball on the ground to the tune of a groundball rate at nearly 51%. With the infield defense the way it is right now, would he still be as effective?

And before you ask, no. Matt Strahm is not an option, not with an ERA that begins with a 7 and a groundball rate under 30%.

Baltimore Orioles (Fangraphs playoff odds: 24.6%)

At first blush, there doesn’t seem to be a match between the two teams. Admittedly, there can be a bit of a stretch to see the link between the two.

Technically, with playoff odds around 25% and the American League being quite bad this season, Baltimore could talk itself into actually pushing forward with what they have. They have played better since the break and have some players that could continue to improve as the clock ticks toward the deadline. They only sit three games out of the last wild card spot and remain in striking distance.

Yet if they determine that they aren’t going to make it and indeed start to trade away a few pieces, there are some that could be attractive to the Phillies.

Namely, Taylor Ward.

Having been linked to the Phillies for at least two seasons now, the disappointing season the Orioles are having might finally be the time that a deal is actually consummated. Ward has played in each game on the season for Baltimore and has given them a 120 wRC+ for their troubles. He’s also an outfielder on an expiring contract and could bring them back something fetching in return. Outfielders are things that Baltimore has a few of in reserve, but moving Ward would be a signal that they didn’t think they could overcome the injuries they’re having to make those playoffs.

If Ward was someone they did not want to move, someone like Tyler O’Neill could possibly be pried loose. He’s in a platoon right now with Dylan Beavers and has generally disappointed in his tenure there, but isn’t far removed from a season (2024) in which he had 31 home runs. Were the Orioles willing to pay down some of his remaining deal (he is still under contract for 2027 at $16.5 million, a roll of the dice could be in play to see if he can regain some of his noted power from a few years ago.

For pitching, it’s unlikely any of the starters Baltimore has would be on the table, so focusing on what relievers they have could be in order. Andrew Kittredge is one that they could have interest in as a late inning option. He’s been solid for them this year, running an ERA around 3.5 for most of the season. He’s not going to blow hitters away, but he still induces quite a bit of chase with his stuff and keeps the ball on the ground.

These are but three teams that the Phillies might be able to make a deal with. There are a few others, some of which might be able to actually see a deal through. We’ll have to wait and see what that deadline finally brings.

The FCL Braves season has come to a close. On paper it wasn’t a great year at just 18-39, but we did get to see some players emerge with the Braves lowest level affiliate within the US this season. This article will highlight some of the successes and failures of the team’s season, as well as picking the team’s hitter and pitcher of the year.

FCL Hitter of the Year: Manuel Campos, SS

Manuel Campos pretty easily took this home this year. It looked like it would be Michael Martinez’s award, but considering he was promoted after just 11 games while Campos spent the entire year here, this was an easy choice. The 18-year-old switch hitter from Venezuela hit .310/.408/.429 with eight doubles, three triples, two homers, 30 steals in 35 attempts, 27 walks, and 37 strikeouts over 196 plate appearances.

FCL Pitcher of the Year: Gensi Angeles, RHP

This wasn’t quite as easy as the hitter, as Gensi Angeles had Briggs McKenzie to compete with, but once again the body of work heavily slanted things towards Angeles. Angeles was the ace of the team, pitching to a 2.26 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts to 27 walks over 55.2 innings. The 18-year-old Dominican continued the success he had last year in the DSL – 3.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. He’s just 6’0” and 165 pounds and sits mostly in the upper 80’s while touching the low 90’s, but he has been quite efficient to start his career. It is worth noting that he saw his K/9 jump by 1.2, his H/9 only increase by 0.3, and his HR/9 drop from 1.0 to 0.3, though his walk rate nearly doubled in going from 2.5 to 4.4 BB/9. Despite his success in the lowest levels, Angeles won’t rank high on prospect lists because with the stuff he’s shown he is the kind of pitcher who will need to keep proving himself every time he moves up a level.

Hitting

Even if you exclude the slew of guys just here for rehab assignments (Ronald Acuna, Owen Carey, Conor Essenburg, Ha-Seong Kim, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, and Will Verdung), the FCL squad had more bright spots than you might expect from a team with this record. We already got into the season that Manuel Campos had, while Michael Martinez earned a fairly quick promotion to Augusta with his .375/.522/.781 line in 11 games. However other players also had solid showings here. As a team they hit .234/.354/.334 with 21 homers, though three of those homers came from the rehab group and another four came from Martinez’s short stint early in the season. The team average and OBP both ranked 13th out of 15 teams in the league, with the worst slugging percentage – 15 points below the team ahead of them.

Yamvier Carrero emerged a bit in his first season after signing as an undrafted free agent from high school last year, hitting .259/.407/.294 – though his season ended a bit early due to injury, and he cooled off a bit towards the end of his time after a solid start. Caden Merritt was another first year high school undrafted free agent, and he slashed .237/.384/.405 with five doubles, four triples, three homers, and 20 steals in his first full season as he split time between here and Augusta. Diego Tornes also had his season end early due to injury, and although his stat line wasn’t particularly impressive at .196/.274/.304 – the underlying metrics on him do paint a brighter picture than the stat line would indicate. Catcher Manuel Dos Passos (.693 OPS) and catcher/first baseman Johan Rodriguez (.747 OPS) also put up solid seasons. Among the guys who weren’t here long from the DSL team, Jorwin Pulido (1.098 OPS) and Elias Reyno (.763 OPS) each had shown some flashes – though neither played even 10 games. Pulido is especially noteworthy as he is a 17-year-old catcher who only signed at the beginning of 2026, and it’s become very rare for the Braves to promote a younger prospect in his first season beyond the DSL. Each of those players will be talked about more in the DSL recap once that season ends in roughly three more weeks.

Pitching

It was a rough year on the pitching side of things. The team ERA was 6.78 with a 1.81 WHIP, along with an 8.4 K/9 against a 7.8 BB/9. That last sentence tells a story of the reason this team lost so many games, though to be fair the young defense didn’t do the pitching staff many favors. It is also worth noting that the walks and defense aren’t Braves-specific issues as much as a common theme in the league, so this is to be expected.

Gensi Angeles was already talked about above, but Briggs McKenzie gave him a real run for the team’s top pitcher this year posting a 0.79 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with nine strikeouts to two walks over 11.1 innings in three outings. Ultimately he fell short as his body of work paled in comparison to what Angeles did here, due to his fairly quick promotion to Augusta and then Rome. Outside of Angeles and McKenzie the most successful pitchers here to pitch even 10 innings had to be Brody Fowler, Luis Arestigueta, and Daniel Brooks. Fowler pitched to a 4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 46 strikeouts to 13 walks in his 40.1 innings. Arestigueta was 4.63 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with nine strikeouts in 11.2 innings. Brooks had a 6.17 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, but 11 strikeouts in 11.2 innings. After that group of pitchers, most of the other pitching either really struggled or was not here very long.

“And I love that dirty water … Boston you’re my ho—” oh, whoops, didn’t see you there. I was, uh, yeah I was celebrating the turnaround of the 2026 Boston Red Sox, I didn’t think I’d have to work today jeez. (takes off hat and Roman Anthony jersey) Oh, you want to know about the streak? Okay, let me get my glasses and then we can talk.

(ahem) The Boston Red Sox are on an absolute tear. They’ve gone 20-3 since June 25, won 15 straight games to tie their franchise record streak from the 1940s (!) and have turned around basically every aspect of their 2026 disasterclass to wrest control of the third American League Wild Card spot from the jaws of a confusing game of Musical Chairs/Duck Duck Goose. How on earth did we get here, and what does it all mean?

Since they began their fire-breathing rampage through everything in their path, the Red Sox have essentially doubled the offensive output of four players without seeing a major drop-off from anyone they were counting on for runs. Jay Jaffe at FanGraphs explains it all really well here, and has a nice table that shows how four guys — Willson Contreras, Andruw Monasterio, Masataka Yoshida and Caleb Durbin — have seen dramatic spikes in their wRC+ and associated power metrics since June 25. 

That list doesn’t even really account for the impact of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela, who have been less consistent but defensively elite with some huge hits in big spots for both. Probably the most dramatic moment of the streak (tied with Caleb Durbin’s home run) was Abreu’s impossible go-ahead two-run shot against the Tampa Bay Rays after Boston had fallen down three. Baseball is funny like that; consistency wins divisions, but at the end of the day, when you need a home run right now… someone needs to hit one right now.

In short, this team was “clutch,” a dark word in baseball given that clutch sorta doesn’t exist for teams. Well, it does, and we have clutch stats to back it up: in the last 30 days, the Boston Red Sox are by far the most clutch team (which just calculates how much win probability you add in high-leverage spots) with 4.27 Clutch (wow that sounds weird to say). That is an insane number, and more than doubles Detroit at number two. 

But for the whole season, Boston has been the opposite of clutch; distinctively, un-clutch, one could say, at -1.31, which 24th in the Majors for the full season which includes this streak. And there’s no evidence that certain teams are “clutch” month over month, year over year or that clutch performances can be used as predictive for future clutch play. Jeff Sullivan wrote a great breakdown of this data in 2018, and I’ll quote from his piece here to illustrate the point: 

“There’s no historical reason to believe [clutch is] a trait. It’s all just a collection of things that have happened. Things at important times that have wound up deciding ballgames.”

That is, in essence, what Boston’s 15-game win streak was about. “Things at important times” decided a number of close ballgames in a row for one team. And while it should not be used to say anything about the 2026 Boston Red Sox being a clutch team (they literally aren’t, see above), the fact that they were clutch for 30 days was the difference between the 2026 season sitting at the bottom of the Boston Harbor to rot for eternity with that tea from 1773 and becoming a buyer at the trade deadline. They brought a crane and fished the season out.

For the 2026 Red Sox, clutch does exist; maybe not as a trait, but as an event that happened and is perhaps still happening that had a seismic impact on their destiny, relationship with the city and with each other. “Things at important times” may not be something we can predict, but it still feels pretty darn awesome when they happen. Boston needed exactly that type of run (or at least something close to it) to save a season in which absolutely nothing has gone right. And they did it! 

Could we have predicted it? Nope! At least not to that extent — I’ve written a lot about these Red Sox, and while they were basically always better than their putrid 32-46 record, the production they’re getting out of Durbin, Yoshida and Monasterio was not the recipe for success I had in the recipe book.

If we’re being cold and calculated, Boston will need more talent in this lineup if they’re going to oh I don’t know win the World Series or something ridiculous. Roman Anthony will need to return from the longest and most impossibly torturous Red Sox injury saga since peak Chris Sale, and Garrett Crochet will need to be back for the postseason.

Do the Red Sox believe that can happen? If they do, then buyers will be buying.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers hit the road tonight, and they enter the series opener against the New York Mets as a clear -138 moneyline favorite. 

However, with the struggling Roki Sasaki on the hill, my Dodgers vs. Mets predictions see value in the hosts as an underdog. 

Find out more in my MLB picks for Friday, July 24. 

Who will win Dodgers vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (+119)

Roki Sasaki has been in horrible form for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's posted a 7.28 FIP over his last four appearances.

During that span, he's allowed a 44.2% hard-hit rate and 17.2% barrel rate. Sasaki is incredibly inconsistent, and the Mets are averaging a 40.5% hard-hit rate in the last five games. 

The New York Mets counter with Sean Manaea. Although his 4.76 xERA across the last month is nothing to write home about, the Dodgers haven’t shown much power against lefties, posting a .166 ISO in that split, and the Mets bullpen has been lights out lately with a 3.06 xERA in the last week. 

The Mets jump on Sasaki, and Manaea limits the damage enough before handing things over to the pen. 

I'll play this pick up to -110. 

COVERS INTEL: Sasaki has surrendered 2.89 HR/9 over his last four starts, compared to 1.97 HR/9 overall this season. 

Dodgers vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+114)

This total sits at 9.5, and the bullpen situation gives the Over a realistic path. The Dodgers pen has been shaky lately, posting a 5.07 FIP over its last 19.1 innings while giving up 1.86 HR/9.

That’s important against a Mets lineup that has been solid recently, carrying a 103 wRC+ over the last week. 

Los Angeles hasn’t been as productive, sitting at 92 wRC+ during that span, but Manaea’s vulnerabilities over the last month still leave room for the Dodgers to contribute at the dish. 

If the Mets get to Sasaki early, it creates a clear path to the Over, especially given LA's bullpen struggles.

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

Dodgers vs Mets weather

Conditions should be very favorable at Citi Field tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from the upper 70s into the low 70s. Winds will be light at roughly 6 to 9 mph, and there is no rain concern. Weather should have minimal impact on scoring or ball carry.

Dodgers vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Los Angeles -133 | New York +127
• Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+122) | New York +1.5 (-127)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-127) | Under 8.5 (+122)

Dodgers vs Mets trend

The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 50 games at home (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets.

How to watch Dodgers vs Mets and game info

Dodgers vs Mets latest injuries

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Full slate MLB Friday is here! Let's fill up those cards and kick off the weekend on a high note!

Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks to attack on Friday, July 24.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
German Marquez	Under 3.5 Strikeouts	-138
Munetaka Murakami	1+ Hit	-156
Tomoyuki Sugano	Over 5.5 Hits Allowed	-132

German Marquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Entering Friday, San Diego Padres right-hander German Marquez owns the lowest matchup strikeout rate among today's starters, according to Batters-Box.

On top of that, he has to face five elite-rated hitters and two hitters with strong ratings. The Miami Marlins also do not have a single hitter above the league average strikeout rate.

In 31 games with a poorly rated matchup strikeout rate, Marquez has gone under this prop 58.06% of the time. Across his last five starts, he owns just a 13.83% strikeout rate.

Even with the Marlins going through a cold stretch over the last few weeks, there is too much data on their side against Marquez for me to have any concern.

The right-hander has struggled recently, posting a 6.30 ERA, 5.68 xERA, and 1.80 WHIP over his last five starts.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MIAM, SDPA

Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Hits (-156)

If you are not in the juice paying business, take Munetaka Murakami's hits+runs+RBI prop instead. However, at this price, the floor is well worth it in my book.

The Chicago White Sox rookie has maintained a .273 BA, .922 OPS, and 54.5% hard hit rate over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers.

Not to mention, he enters Friday evening with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he records a hit 66.67% of the time. He also covers over 73% of Houston Astros right-hander Spencer Arrighetti's arsenal.

Arrighetti throws fastballs and curveballs 68.9% of the time, and Murakami has found success against both offerings. He owns an expected batting average of at least .378 and is generating at least a 60% hard hit rate against each pitch.

Arrighetti has struggled heavily against left-handed hitters this season, and his recent outings have not shown much improvement. Over his last 60 batters faced, hitters are generating a 42.4% hard hit rate, 18.2% barrel rate, and just a 24.2% ground ball rate.

I think Murakami is due for a big outing at the dish. Give me the floor at -156. 

• Time: 7:40p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-132)

According to Batters-Box's current season dataset, the highest rated offense on the day belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who own an average hitter matchup rating of 0.501.

To put that number into perspective, a hitter matchup rating above 0.450 is considered "elite." Milwaukee enters Friday with five elite-rated hitters and two more carrying strong ratings.

Despite the Brewers' recent cold streak, I fully expect them to get after Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano this evening. Sugano enters with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate while allowing the most hard contact among today's starters.

When Sugano receives a poor rating on Batters-Box, he allows 5+ hits 70.37% of the time, 6+ hits 55.56% of the time, and 7+ hits 29.63% of the time. In his last ten poorly rated outings, he has allowed 6+ hits in six games.

I would play this down to -135 at the most, or look toward the Brewers to go Over their first five team total.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, BREW

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The Trade Deadline is just over a week away and the Cubs are expected to be aggressive buyers. So now is a good time to see what prospects the Cubs have that might interest other teams.

The Cubs farm system has had a good first half of the season. Both Double-A Knoxville and High-A South Bend won their first-half division titles. Several prospects, most notably Josiah Hartshorn and Owen Ayers, took huge steps forward and have established themselves among the Top 100 prospects in the game. I also think the Cubs had a good draft, although time will tell on that. But four recent draft picks made my new Top 25.

Several players have graduated off of my pre-season list. Pre-season top prospect Moisés Ballesteros may be back in the minors, but he exceeded the 120 plate appearances in the majors before going back down. Neither Kevin Alcántara nor Pedro Ramírez have 120 plate appearances yet, but both do have the 45 days in the majors, which is another marker of the end of prospect status. But it should be noted that while Mo Baller, the Jaguar and Ramírez (someone get Pedro a nickname!) are no longer considered prospects, they are the kinds of players with potential and six years of team control that teams are looking for when trading with the Cubs.

Here is where I see the Cubs’ Top 25 prospects at the moment. I think this list is a lot deeper than the one that I made this past winter. Still, there isn’t a lot of difference between someone ranked 19 and 25 nor between someone ranked in the 20s and a lot of people I didn’t rank. So if you’re asking “Why isn’t [so-and-so] here?,” the answer is almost certainly “I could have put him on instead of [player name].”

A quick reminder that this year’s draft picks—Cade Townsend, Brandon Sorrell, Myles Bailey and Carson Jasa—cannot be traded at the Deadline.

As always, I don’t rank players still in the Dominican Summer League. However, those players will also be available for trades. But major league teams only rarely want players that young and that far away from the majors in Deadline deals.

BCB Cubs top 25 prospects: Mid-season update

1. Josiah Hartshorn 1B/OF
2. Jefferson Rojas INF
3. Owen Ayers C
4. Kane Kepley OF
5. Cade Townsend RHP
6. Jaxon Wiggins RHP
7. Ethan Conrad OF
8. Kaleb Wing RHP
9. Caden Sorrell OF
10. James Triantos 2B/OF
11. Jonathon Long 1B/LF
12. Myles Bailey 1B
13. Ty Southisene SS
14. Brooks Caple RHP
15. Dominick Reid RHP
16. Juan Cabada 2B
17. Jostin Florentino RHP
18. Mason McGwire RHP 
19. Brett Bateman OF
20. Will Sanders RHP
21. Nazier Mulé RHP 
22. Jose Escobar LF/2B
23. Carson Jasa RHP
24. Grant Kipp RHP
25. Pierce Coppola LHP

Josiah Hartshorn has been struggling a bit lately, but he still shows an advanced approach at the plate and excellent power. There’s some risk here from the hit tool, maybe more than some of us would like to admit, but he’s probably one of the top 40 prospects in baseball right now and probably off-limits for all likely trades.

Jefferson Rojas, still just 21, is having an excellent season in Double-A after struggling in his first exposure there last year. With the Cubs major league infield set for the near future, he’s a strong candidate to get dealt.

Owen Ayers built off that strong Arizona Fall League performance and has played his way all the way up to Triple-A. He’s still a bat-over-glove catcher, but his defense is getting better and his arm has always been strong. Teams will ask about him and while I don’t think he’s off-limits, the Cubs will be loathe to deal him for anything short of a haul.

Kane Kepley is an on-base machine who steals a ton of bases. He’s also a very good defensive center fielder. With Pete Crow-Armstrong ensconced in center for the foreseeable future, Kepley has to be considered a trade candidate for the right price.

The injuries to Jaxon Wiggins have me moving him just behind first-round draft pick Cade Townsend. With the Townsend pick, Wiggins becomes more available. I’m not sure, however, that Wiggins has time enough to re-establish his value before next Monday for the Cubs to get enough back to deal him.

Ethan Conrad has only just started playing after being last year’s first-round pick. So far, he hasn’t looked all that impressive in Low-A Myrtle Beach, but he’s also missed more than a year of playing time. So it may just be rust.

James Triantos is making his major-league debut today. He’s re-established some value after a strong season in Iowa. But while Triantos could be a major league starter, he lacks the power to be an impact player and his major league role and skill set is duplicated by Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramírez, whom I’d argue do it better.

Ty Southisene is currently injured, but his value has gone up this year as he’s hit .302 with a .422 OBP. He’s also proven that he can at minimum play an adequate shortstop, which gives him a lot more utility infielder value. He has yet to hit his first professional home run, which lowers his value

Juan Cabada makes my list for the first time after playing in the Arizona Complex League. He showed a solid bat as an 18-year-old before he got injured at the end of May. He has not returned to the field since then.

I still think Mason McGwire is a reliever at the major league level, but after missing all of 2025, he looks like a completely different pitcher this year with better stuff and much-improved command. There’s also always the chance I’m wrong and McGwire ends up as a starter. I can imagine the A’s or the Cardinals asking for McGwire in any potential trade.

I’m still quite suspicious of Brett Bateman as his .306 batting average in Iowa is driven by a very high batting average on balls in play. He also has almost no power. But Bateman also makes a lot of contact, walks about as much as he strikes out, steals a lot of bases and plays good defense in center field. He’s more of a fourth outfielder than a starter, but he’s also in Triple-A and close to major-league ready.

Nazier Mulé touches 100 miles per hour and has greatly improved his control this year. He still walks too many batters, but he’s moving in the right direction. It should be noted that Mulé didn’t devote himself full-time to pitching until the Cubs drafted him out of high school in 2022.

Jose Escobar is having a breakout season in South Bend, in large part because he’s dropped his strikeout rate from 20.8 percent to 13 percent. The fact that he’s looking more “left fielder” than “second baseman” hurts his value, but a team that thinks he can still play second base might value him higher.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out yesterday’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (49-48) POSTPONED

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (43-49) POSTPONED

A+: Asheville Tourists (32-60) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Oakes started for Asheville and went 3.1 innings allowing 2 runs. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Frey solo home run. After the Hot Rods got a run in the 6th, Batista tied the game in the 7th with a 2 run home run. The Hot Rods immediately retook the lead though with a run in the bottom of the 7th. Asheville was unable to score again as they fell 4-3.

Note: Frey has a .773 OPS in High-A.

• Ethan Frey, LF: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Caden Powell, RF: 1-for-3, BB
• Zach Daudet, SS: 0-for-3, R, BB
• Freuddy Batista, C: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI

• Kellan Oakes, RHP: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Jordan Carr, LHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (46-45) won 10-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first on a Luciano RBI double. They broke it open in the 3rd scoring 5 runs on a Luciano RBI single, Flores groundout, Fielder RBI single and Cauro 2 run home run. In the 5th inning, Fielder added an RBI triple. The offense got 2 more runs in the 6th on a wild pitch and Sierra sac fly. Beck got the start for the Woodpeckers and was great tossing 6 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts. Fielder added a run in the 8th on a bases loaded hit by pitch. Shoemaker tossed 2 scoreless innings in relief and Rosario closed it out allowing 2 runs as the Woodpeckers won 10-2.

Note: Luciano is hitting .400 over his last 14 games.

• Josh Wakefield, CF: 3-for-6, 2 R, 2 2B, SB
• Kevin Alvarez, DH: 1-for-4, 2 R, BB, SB
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 4-for-6, R, 2B, 2 RBI, SB
• Arturo Flores, C: 0-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB
• Jadyn Fielder, LF: 2-for-3, R, 3B, 3 RBI, BB
• Carlos Cauro, 1B: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
• DJ Newman, RF: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B

• Jagger Beck, RHP: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (WIN)
• Adam Shoemaker, LHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 5 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Ryan Weiss – 7:05 CT

CC: Nolan DeVos – 5:05 CT

AV: Andrew Taylor – 6:35 CT

FV: TBD – 5:35 CT

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

In a recent Trade Deadline-focused piece for The Athletic, writer Jim Bowden proposed a trade between the Cubs and Royals that he would like to see:

Cubs receive: Michael Wacha, RHP

Royals receive: Matt Shaw, INF/OF; Kevin Alcántara, OF

[…]

In return, the Royals get two young bats who can’t crack the Cubs’ starting lineup in Shaw and Alcántara. Shaw, 24, can play second base, third base and corner outfield. As an everyday player, he projects to have 15-20 home run power. Alcántara, 23, has never been given a legitimate chance with Chicago, but he’s having another strong season in Triple A.

Both players are 24. Shaw is nominally a third baseman, but has played primarily in right field with some second and first mixed in. Alcántara is a centerfielder. Shaw was considered the 22nd overall best prospect in MLB by FanGraphs when he graduated last year and was hitting about league average before being sidelined with an injury on June 29th. He still needs to tap into some game power to be as good as he’s projected, but the projections are very good indeed.

Alcántara is still considered a prospect, and the fifth best in the Cubs’ system, despite debuting in 2024 due to a lack of plate appearances at the big league level. On his third run at AAA, he’s doing quite well for himself with a .936 OPS and a double-digit walk rate. He strikes out nearly 1/3 of the time, but if he can access in the big leagues the power that’s seen him hit 17 home runs in 55 AAA games this year, he could be a very valuable player indeed. Despite having well-graded speed, he’s never stolen as many as 20 bases in a single season.

Ideally, I think the Royals would want to focus on guys who were still true prospects rather than graduated and nearly-graduated guys. They might also prefer someone for whom baseball was more of a priority than Shaw has shown it to be for him. But these are still a pair of very talented hitters and would probably be a huge boost to the youth and talent of the Royals organization. How would you grade this trade if the Royals and Cubs agreed to it?

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As we put that five-game Thursday slate behind us, a full Friday slate is here. This evening, I am loving the underdog market, so let's dive in!

Here are today's MLB moneyline predictions as we break down a full slate of MLB picks for Friday, July 24, starring the Atlanta Braves.

MLB moneyline picks for July 24

Matchup	Pick
Rockies vs Brewers	+223
Royals vs Tigers	+264
Cubs vs Pirates	+108
Diamondbacks vs Nationals	+111
Yankees vs Phillies	-125
Braves vs Orioles	+106
Dodgers vs Mets	-133
Guardians vs Rays	-127
Padres vs Marlins	+125
Blue Jays vs Red Sox	-117
Astros vs White Sox	+125
Mariners vs Rangers	+108
Athletics vs Twins	+130
Reds vs Cardinals	-147
Angels vs Giants	+153

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-24.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 24

Rockies vs Brewers: Rockies (+223)

Rockies win probability: 31%

Are you really going to lay -228 with a Brewers offense that has an 87 wRC+, a 25% strikeout rate, and just a 5.8% barrel rate over its last six games?

Meanwhile, the Rockies own a 41% hard-hit rate, a 19.6% strikeout rate, and a .175 ISO over their last six.

Sure, Tomoyuki Sugano isn't the sexiest pitcher to put your money on, but at +223, it may be worth a sprinkle.

Royals vs Tigers: Royals (+264)

Royals win probability: 28%

Are you really paying -270 just because Tarik Skubal is on the mound? You shouldn't.

The Royals' offense is finally starting to heat up, posting a 115 wRC+, a .336 wOBA, and a .762 OPS over its last 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have a 25.6% strikeout rate, a 35% hard-hit rate, and a 104 wRC+ over that same stretch.

Give me the Royals.

Cubs vs Pirates: Cubs (+108)

Cubs win probability: 48%

Give me another underdog!

Sure, Jared Jones has been nails over his last few starts, but the Pirates' offense has gone cold lately. Meanwhile, the Cubs have posted a 130 wRC+, a .360 wOBA, and an .809 OPS over their last six games.

Matthew Boyd has been a bit shaky on the road, but over his last three starts, he's posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just a 5.56% walk rate.

If the Cubs' offense can get to Jones while Boyd continues pitching at this level, I think they come out on top.

Diamondbacks vs Nationals: Nationals (+111)

Nationals win probability: 48%

You could not convince me to back the Diamondbacks when one of the most efficient offenses in baseball is an underdog.

While Arizona has started to heat up over the past week, Washington has been rolling for more than a month. On top of that, Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 4.91 xERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season, and he's carrying a 6.52 ERA over his last three starts.

Yankees vs Phillies: Phillies (-125)

Phillies win probability: 56%

Sure, Cam Schlittler is on the mound for the Yankees, but how are they going to score runs? Over their last 21 games, New York has posted a 74 wRC+, .281 wOBA, and .634 OPS.

Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo takes the ball for the Phillies, carrying a 0.69 ERA, 1.42 xERA, and 0.61 WHIP across his last three starts.

The Phillies offense has not been much better, but I believe Schlittler is due for some regression over his next few outings, which gives Philadelphia the edge in this matchup.

Braves vs Orioles: Braves (+106)

Braves win probability: 48%

The underdog leans keep rolling!

Trevor Rogers takes the mound for the Orioles this evening, and while he has looked excellent lately, his underlying metrics point toward regression.

Over his last three starts, Rogers owns a 1.04 ERA, but his expected ERA sits at 4.26. His strikeout rate has been low, his walk rate has been a bit elevated, and the left-hander is allowing nearly 44% hard contact to opposing hitters.

Grant Holmes gets the ball for the Braves and has been sharp over his last five starts, posting a 1.90 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Atlanta's offense has also started to heat up, making the Braves a very appealing underdog in this spot.

Dodgers vs Mets: Dodgers (-133)

Dodgers win probability: 57%

God, this is gross. Roki Sasaki versus Sean Manaea is not exactly a pitching matchup that inspires confidence, so expect some fireworks. Even so, I'm rolling with the Dodgers here.

Sasaki has been shaky all season, but Los Angeles still has the superior lineup and bullpen. In a matchup like this, I'll trust the better team overall.

Guardians vs Rays: Rays (-130)

Rays win probability: 56%

This should be a solid matchup based on how well both offenses have been swinging the bats lately, but I think the Rays come out on top this evening.

The biggest reason is Joey Cantillo. While his recent results may not look terrible, the underlying metrics suggest regression is on the horizon.

Across his last three starts, he has allowed a 44% hard-hit rate, a .463 BABIP, and owns a 1.80 WHIP. I think those numbers catch up to him tonight, giving Tampa Bay the edge.

Padres vs Marlins: Padres (+125)

Padres win probability: 44%

I find it difficult to back an offense that owns a 70 wRC+, .268 wOBA, and .602 OPS over its last six games, especially when the opposing team has posted a 167 wRC+, .406 wOBA, and .944 OPS over that same stretch. I want the Padres here.

German Marquez has been a liability for much of the season, but if he can simply be serviceable against this ice-cold Marlins offense, the Padres should be in a good spot against Ryan Gusto.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-117)

Red Sox win probability: 54%

It's the Red Sox or nothing here.

The Blue Jays remain one of the most lifeless offenses in baseball, posting just a 67 wRC+, .266 wOBA, and .115 ISO over their last 21 games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been one of the hottest teams in the league during that same stretch.

Pay the juice.

Astros vs White Sox: Astros (+125)

Astros win probability: 44%

With Davis Martin's recent struggles on the mound and how cold the White Sox have been at the plate, even after coming off a series win, I want no part of them here.

The Astros offense has been humming, and if they can get to Martin early, I trust Spencer Arrighetti to keep Chicago's ice-cold lineup in check.

Mariners vs Rangers: Rangers (+108)

Rangers win probability: 48%

The Mariners can be everyone's AL sleeper all they want, but they still own an 81 wRC+, .283 wOBA, and .623 OPS over their last six games. Those numbers have remained virtually unchanged across their last 21 games.

On the other side, the Rangers offense is starting to heat up, posting a 118 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .770 OPS over that same 21-game stretch.

I am willing to trust MacKenzie Gore here despite his ugly 7.09 ERA over his last five starts. His underlying metrics tell a much different story, as he owns a 3.11 xERA during that span. 

Athletics vs Twins: Athletics (+130)

Athletics win probability: 44%

With Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews taking the mound, I want the Athletics. Over his last three starts, Matthews owns a 10.54 ERA, 5.86 xERA, and 2.19 WHIP, making him one of the easiest pitchers to fade on the slate.

Jacob Lopez has not been much better in terms of results for the Athletics, but his underlying numbers are far more encouraging. He owns a 2.78 xERA over his last three starts, giving me more confidence in Oakland to come away with the win.

The Athletics offense has been heating up, while the Twins have been cooling down. Give me the A's!

Reds vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-147)

Cardinals win probability: 60%

Your mom's new favorite country singer, Rhett Lowder, takes the bump for the Reds this evening while carrying a 9.64 ERA, 4.81 xERA, and 2.36 WHIP over his last five starts. Not to mention, he is allowing a 43% hard-hit rate and has posted an extremely high .481 BABIP during that stretch.

Even with the Cardinals struggling over the past week, I think this is a clear bounce-back spot for them.

Angels vs Giants: Angels (+153)

Angels win probability: 40%

Holy gross. Both starters this evening are carrying ERAs above 8.00 over their last three starts, while both offenses have been completely frozen across their last 12 games.

Give me the underdog here. I am not paying $1.56 for a struggling arm paired with a struggling offense.

Do not pay the juice. Take the dog.

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The Philadelphia Phillies are -135 favorites to take the series opener vs. the New York Yankees on Friday night.

But with two excellent starters taking on a pair of struggling offenses, I'm happy to take the value on the underdog with my Yankees vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for July 24.

Who will win Yankees vs Phillies today: Yankees moneyline (+115)

The Philadelphia Phillies are ice-cold on offense. They have hit just .222 against right-handed pitching in July and .202 over their last 10 games. 

Cam Schlittler has allowed only eight runs over eight starts against teams that ranked Bottom-10 in batting average in the 10 games prior to squaring off, and the Phillies sit 27th.

Jesus Luzardo is in exceptional form himself. However, he owns a 4.68 ERA against Top-10 opponents in OPS vs. left-handed pitching. The New York Yankees sit second on the year.

Back the Yankees to +100.

COVERS INTEL:Schlittler ranks in the 96th percentile in Pitcher Run Value this season.

Yankees vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

Scoring runs should feel like pulling teeth in this one.

The Phillies own a very underwhelming .296 wOBA and have struck out at the sixth-highest rate vs. righties in July. That should spell trouble against Schlittler, who ranks above the 90th percentile in both xwOBA and K%.

While the Yankees own excellent numbers against lefties this season, they have hit .204 with a 32.7K% during the month of July.

It’ll be tough to flip the switch against Luzardo, one of the most in-form pitchers in the majors.

Bet the Under to -125.

Yankees vs Phillies weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s with winds blowing in. Very minimal boost to the bats.

Yankees vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Yankees +115 | Phillies -135
• Run line: Yankees +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)

Yankees vs Phillies trend

The Yankees have hit the Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.30 units, 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Phillies.

How to watch Yankees vs Phillies and game info

Yankees vs Phillies latest injuries

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If you’d told me on March 1st that Kerry Carpenter would be batting 6th on July 20th, I would have assumed the Tigers had the best offense in baseball, or at least that a lefty was on the mound. I would certainly have been wrong.

After years of menacing right-handed pitchers from the top of Detroit’s lineup – his 132 wRC+ from 2024-25 was tied for 23rd, among sluggers like Pete Alonso or Matt Olson – 2026 has been more of a struggle for Detroit’s resident cult favorite. Over 76 games so far, almost every stat has gone the wrong direction, leading to an underwhelming 93 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR. This is not the Kerry Carpenter from the 2024 ALDS. If the Tigers want to see the 2026 ALDS, they’ll almost certainly need him back in form, so let’s start trying to figure this out.

The first thing to note: while injuries are part of the story, he doesn’t look injured in any observable way. Yes, he missed 3 weeks with a shoulder sprain after he ran into the wall on an insider the parker. Yes, the play was as ugly as you remember. No, I won’t show it to you; I’ll spare Kerry the embarrassment. However, that doesn’t seem to tell the whole story, as neither his sprint speed (27 ft/s) nor his bat speed (71.8 mph) have changed at all from his best seasons. It’s good that he isn’t playing through a nagging injury, but it also means a few days off won’t likely have him magically feeling better, either. If they want to fix Carpenter, they probably need to start with his gameplan at the plate.

Carpenter’s approach has typically been to swing often and hit the ball really hard. He didn’t want to walk, but by swinging early and often, he frequently ended the at-bat before he could strike out. Sure, he chased a lot, but he crushed baseballs and made a lot of contact with a fly ball heavy profile anyways, so who really cared? Unfortunately, either by choice or by chance, Carpenter has seemingly abandoned that approach in 2026 to disastrous results.

To summarize: compared to 2025, Carpenter is seeing fewer strikes, swinging at a smaller proportion of those strikes, striking out more, and making worse contact, all at the same time. On their own, none of those are good,, but combined, they’re pretty disastrous. This new approach has dropped him from 51st to 103rd in barrel rate, and his small improvements in walk rate just haven’t offset the power drop.

So the symptoms are obvious. Carpenter’s entirely out of sorts at the plate, I just don’t know why. Is it a conscious approach change after only a 3.9% walk rate last year? Is he entirely focused on ABS and challenges and letting that throw him off his gameplan? Unfortunately, I couldn’t say from here. All I know is Carpenter went from one of the most feared sluggers when you challenge him in the zone, to a near pushover. He just has rarely been on time, and his distinctive swing, heavily weighted on his back leg and looking to snap the bat off that platform, has looked out of whack most of the year.

Unfortunately, it gets even worse. For some reason, Carpenter has spent more than 60% of his games in the outfield. That is an unwise decision. Despite a strong arm and close to average speed, Carpenter is rating as one of the absolute worst fielders in the game. He’s only played in the outfield for 330 innings – the season’s had close to 900 – and yet is tied for the 15th-worst defender at any position with -7 OAA. If, for some reason, he played every inning of every game, he’d rate about as well as Andrew Vaughn did in right field that one year. I cannot stress how little of a compliment that is. Roughly average offense and bottom of the barrel defense is not a winning combination.

Now, Carpenter’s starting from such a high place that even his fall from grace has him near average at the dish. That includes 27 straight at-bats without a hit before his single on Wednesday; before his dreadful July, he had a 120 wRC+ and a concerning strikeout rate, so the tools have all been there at points of 2026. Only in June did he really break out into good Carpenter territory for a sustained stretch. Unfortunately, as the Tigers learned in May, one bad month can pretty much ruin the whole season. To force the issue in the weeklong sprint to the deadline, and through what will be a months long chase to the finish line even if things go well, they’ll need Carpenter to start slugging again. He might have to start turning it loose more aggressively to do so.

The Guardians’ playoff aspirations could use some Helium so why not try some Heliot?

You can view our larger trade deadline piece here as we discuss a wider pool of options the Guardians may consider. To make my position clear, I expect the Guardians to make smaller moves, like trading Bo Naylor and getting a castoff/undervalued reliever. But, in the interest of exploring potential larger moves, we are doing a series looking at some of those bigger names. So far, we have discussed Spencer Steer , Luis Arraez, Shea Langeliers and Taylor Ward.

I will write up some pitchers in this series, I promise, but there is no denying that this team’s biggest need is a slugger. Ramos is one of the few players potentially available who might POTENTIALLY fit that bill. Ramos is a 26 year-old outfielder with a 107 wRC+, a career 25/7 K/BB%, career .258/.316/.425 slashline. He has a career 135 wRC+ against LHP (96 vs RHP). He has a career average.exit velo of 91.7 mph and a 12% barrel rate and a 47.7% hard-hit rate. Unlike most right-handed hitters, his career home run total would be projected to be +1 more at Progressive Field.

And that is the rub. Ramos plays in a terrible hitters park in San Francisco. The goal would be to get him out of there and let him really unleash his pop in Progressive Field. His 25% opposite-field hit rate could actually help him sneak a few out in left field, but, generally speaking, not having to play in a cavern on a constantly chilly bay should help.

Ramos is under control through 2029. Although he is only a slightly above average hitter overall and a poor defender who should be confined to a corner outfield spot, he will be valued pretty highly by the Giants who don’t have to trade him yet, as there are so few true lefty mashers available and Heliot is that, for certain. I suspect the Giants are going to demand a headliner for this deal. Maybe the Guardians could snag Ramos with quantity over quality but I think it probably takes an Angel Genao to shake Ramos free right now.

I don’t think the Guardians would be wise to make that trade. But, also… sometimes you gotta take a risk to find power. The team desperately needs power. I would not trade Genao for Ramos… unless I was convinced that he can become a 30 homer a seasoj player here… and I do think that is at least a slim possibility. But, man… it would be a gamble.

If the Guardians somehow pluck Ramos from old trading partner Buster Posey, their lineup could look like:

1. Kwan CF
2. Jose 3B
3. DeLauter RF/DH
4. Ramos DH/RF
5. Bazzana 2B
6. Angel Martinez LF
7. Brayan Rocchio SS
8. Patrick Bailey C
9. Kyle Manzardo/Rhys Hoskins 1B (I’m frustrated with them today, ok?).

Let me know what you think in the comments below!

The Gwinnett Stripers are more rehab than roster at this point, and we’re thankful for that as it gives us the chance to talk about our old friends again. AJ Smith-Shawver had a terrific outing for Gwinnett and looked strong through 86 pitches, holding his upper-90’s velocity deep into the game. Ronald Acuna Jr. also played the full game, though it is fair to mention it was only five innings as weather made an impact on a few games at the minor league level on Thursday. Down in Augusta Conor Essenburg and Alex Lodise went deep, with that being home run number 20 on the season for Lodise. Then Ethan Bagwell was incredible for Rome and gave them seven strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings in his fourth High-A start.

(50-47) Gwinnett Stripers 4, (42-54) Iowa Cubs 2

Box Score

Statcast

• Ronald Acuna Jr., DH: 0-2, BB, .250/.350/.250
• Ha-Seong Kim: 0-2, 2 BB, .256/.370/.359
• Patrick Clohisy: 2-3, .567/.594/1.000
• AJ Smith-Shawver, SP: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1.69 ERA

The Stripers only got five innings in the books on Thursday night, but that’s enough for an official game and an official win behind a solid outing from AJ Smith-Shawver. Smith-Shawver had most of the hallmarks of a perfect rehab outing. His velocity was terrific, averaging 97.5 mph on his fastball over his four innings, he had success with four scoreless innings, and he was able to throw plenty of strikes. Still, it wasn’t perfect and his command of his secondary pitches held him back significantly. Smith-Shawver’s fastball was hitting its spots and he got ahead of most hitters, but it took 86 pitches to get through four innings because he just could not locate any of his secondary pitches. His slider was a non-factor throughout the outing as he was mostly missing too far out of the strike zone to get swings, and he left his splitter over the plate quite often. He got away with that location in this outing, but that is not a recipe for success once he gets back to the major leagues. Still this is the best he has looked during his rehab when you take all of the components together, and his command wasn’t that far behind what was Smith-Shawver’s baseline location issues. His velocity was consistent throughout the game, which is a huge milestone as fatigue has been a factor for him in prior outings, and he was largely consistent with his mechanics. He might need another start in Triple-A to iron things out, but with him holding his velocity deep into games and Atlanta’s need for arms it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Braves asked him to make those final adjustments under the watchful eye of Jeremy Hefner.

I wish we had an equally impressive day from Ronald Acuna Jr. to talk about, but he went hitless with his only contact being a routine ground out on a pitch he probably should have crushed, and rain cut short his day after just three plate appearances. He and Ha-Seong Kim drew back-to-back walks in the Stripers three-run second inning, but neither were involved in any of that run scoring as they were stranded on the bases. Kim drew a couple of walks and had a pop to the right side in his other plate appearance. The Stripers contributions at the plate mostly came from the bottom half of the order, and of course Patrick Clohisy had to have his name in that hat. Clohisy led off in the second inning with a sharp grounder that the shortstop go to but had no chance on against Clohisy’s speed. On the next pitch Andrew McCutchen snuck one through the right side that Clohisy easily advanced around to third on, and Jose Azocar tied up the game with the third straight hit to open the inning. Aaron Schunk had the biggest Stripers hit of the game when he gapped one to score both baserunners, and that early 3-1 lead was enough for them to hold onto behind Smith-Shawver. Clohisy has now hit in eight straight games to start his Gwinnett career with multiple hits in six of those, and on the bases he added a stolen base this game. He is 6-6 on stolen bases since being called up and has pulled within one of Tate Southisene for the system lead.

Swing and Misses

AJ Smith-Shawver – 8

Anthony Molina – 2

(42-45) Columbus Clingstones 3, (48-43) Pensacola Blue Wahoos 4

Box Score

• Luke Waddell, SS: 1-4, 2B, .208/.307/.319
• Jordan Groshans, 3B: 1-4, RBI, .260/.336/.528
• Ian Mejia, SP: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 9.17 ERA
• Luis Vargas, RP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 4.43 ERA

(42-46) Columbus Clingstones 0, (49-43) Pensacola Blue Wahoos 1

Box Score

• Luke Waddell, SS: 0-4, .208/.3o7/.319
• Jordan Groshans, 3B: 1-3, BB, .260/.336/.528
• Anderson Pilar, SP: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 6.23 ERA

Two games are better than one, unless you can’t hit. It was a rough set of games for Columbus, despite a late comeback effort in the opener, and this team has been awful at the plate in the second half. They have by far the best run prevention in the league in the second half, allowing a full run per game less than the next-best team, but they also have the worst offense in that span and games like these are why they are just hovering around .500. Ian Mejia could not get it done in the first inning of the opener, allowing a leadoff home run then a series of singles that charged three runs to him before he escaped. Mejia looked solid for most of the game, throwing his typical amount of strikes and working efficiently through the lineup, but the first inning blues followed the team until the end. In the third inning Luke Waddell had a double and scored a run on a Jordan Groshans single, but on the double from Waddell, Keshawn Ogans made a critical out getting thrown out at home and that run ended up being one of many pivotal game one moments. Two walks with one out set up the Clingstones in position to make a charge in the top of the sixth inning, and Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. served a liner to right field for a base hit that would chase a run home and give them the tying run on first base. Matt Scannell delivered a huge hit, hitting a deep fly ball to right field that the defender jumped and snagged but saw pop out of his glove, and that scored a run and put the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position. Unfortunately Tyler Tolve followed with a huge strikeout and Ogans grounded out to end the only major threat of either game.

Game two was sort of a snooze-fest for the Columbus offense. Groshans had another solid game with a first inning double and a walk, but no one else reached base multiple times and the team always found a way to strike out when they got runners in scoring position. Adam Zebrowski led off in the seventh inning with a pinch hit single, and a Kilpatrick walk gave them hope, but the inning when south in a hurry. Dalton McIntyre tried to lay down a bunt, and to be fair he is one of the players on the team who can do so, but he popped it up to third base. Luke Waddell followed that up with a strikeout, and Groshans popped up to shallow right field to snuff the game out. The bullpen held together nicely, especially Isaac Gallegos who pitched three scoreless innings and struck out four batters. Gallegos continues to have an impressive minor breakout in the bullpen, and has maintained his strikeout and whiff rates even with the jump to Double-A. Gallegos’s stuff was always this good but he’s really leaned into his slider as a weapon and it’s a pitch that I think will get him to the major leagues at some point in a middle relief role, though he’s likely more of a shuttle arm between Triple-A and the major leagues than a guy who carves out a long career, though he has value as a mop up multi-inning arm.

Swing and Misses

Ian Mejia – 8

Anderson Pilar – 7

Isaac Gallegos – 5

Tyler LaPorte – 4

Luis Vargas – 1

(43-46) Rome Emperors 1, (56-33) Frederick Keys 1 SUSPENDED

Box Score

• Tate Southisene, SS: 1-3, .248/.378/.436
• John Gil, 2B: 0-2, .244/.339/.376
• Eric Hartman, CF: 1-2, .271, .358/.527
• Ethan Bagwell, SP: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 2.53 ERA

Ethan Bagwell fans rejoice as his breakout season got back on track with an incredible outing, one that has a strong argument to be his best all season. Bagwell was commanding his fastball from the first pitch of the game, and Frederick couldn’t get a solid hit on it even with six innings to work with. Bagwell had a bit of trouble locating his slider in the first couple of innings of this game, but once he found that pitch it was game over and he didn’t really have any trouble spots throughout the game. The progression of his slider to a pitch that can get whiffs has been massive for him and driven this breakout campaign, though underlying issues still need to be solved. Namely he just needs to get a better changeup that he can really lean on against left-handed hitters because he has been getting crushed by them this season. Right handed batters have an OPS of just .389 against Bagwell, and I want to repeat that number is OPS. Left-handed hitters, however, have a .780 OPS, and all of Bagwell’s home runs allowed have been to left handed batters. His strikeout splits are 33.8% vs 18.3% and his walk splits are 2.7% vs 10.6%, and while samples this small are not enough for these numbers to regulate (and the difference isn’t that massive in reality) the issue still tracks with watching him approach hitters on the field. Some of this could just be a developmental approach for the Braves as a lot of their fastball/slider guys don’t see a ton of changeup usage until Double-A, but so far he has been trying to use sliders to get lefties out late in counts and it isn’t really working for him. Bagwell is young and athletic and has shown flashes of a competent changeup so this isn’t a doomsday prophecy for him, but developing a third pitch is of utmost importance for him moving forward because even at the lower levels he is already running into problems with getting opposite-handed guys out.

The Rome offense was stagnant in this game, and it prevented them from having an opportunity to win a shortened contest. Eric Hartman stroked a single in the first inning that went to waste when he got picked off, and over the next five innings the Emperors only produced one more hit. That hit ended up being enough for them to at least salvage a suspended game. Tate Southisene led off in the fourth by slapping a single into right field, though he wouldn’t score the run. John Gil hit a sharp grounder over to third base, and for some reason the third baseman thought he had plenty of time to double clutch a throw to second base and that delay along with a low throw to second meant Gil easily beat out the potential double play. Gil then continued to use his speed. Even with the perfect pitch to throw Gil out on he easily beat a throw to second base for his 40th stolen base of the season. The next pitch bounced in and out of the catcher’s mitt, and Gil pressed a throw to third base that sailed left and into the outfield which allowed Gil to come home for the tying run.

Swing and Misses 

Ethan Bagwell – 11

Drew Christo – 3

(50-43) Augusta GreenJackets 7, (40-52) Salem RidgeYaks 8

Box Score

• Luis Guanipa, CF: 0-6, .298/.353/.450
• Conor Essenburg, RF: 2-3, HR, 2 BB, .257/.405/.471
• Alex Lodise, SS: 1-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, .256/.340/.482
• Landon Beidelschies, SP: 4 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 7.09 ERA

It took until the bottom of the page but now I have a little bit of offensive action to talk about. Conor Essenburg and Alex Lodise were locked in at the plate in this game, though their contributions weren’t quite enough to get the GreenJackets a win. Perhaps they would have been but it was and awful 0-6 day at the plate for Luis Guanipa, whose batting average dropped below .300 for the first time since early May. Essenburg led off in the fifth inning of a then 2-1 ballgame with a walk, and the floodgates for both sides opened. Lodise made it an even 20 home runs of the season with a no-doubt shot to left field, briefly giving the GreenJackets a 3-2 lead in the game. That didn’t last particularly long as the bullpen gave up the lead in the bottom of the inning and kept allowing Salem to extend it, making this the only point for the rest of the day Augusta would have the lead. For Essenburg that walk gave him 10 straight games with a walk, and despite his high strikeout rates he has more walks than strikeouts and a .438 OBP this month. Two innings later it was Essenburg getting all of a ball. The Salem pitcher left a slider right over the middle of the plate and up and Essenburg hit a and absolute moonshot. No one on either side besides Essenburg even bothered to move from the crack of the bat, and I can only hope they give baseballs passports because it’s probably not in US airspace anymore. We’ve seen guys like Essenburg fail in the past due to contact issues, but it’s increasingly hard to not go all-in on him. He’s advanced at the plate, he doesn’t really expand the zone the way a lot of high-strikeout guys do, and the ball comes off of his bat in the way reserved for some of the best power hitters in the game.

It has been tough sledding for Landon Beidelschies this entire season, but lately he has produced his two best outings of the season and he is starting to find footing to get outs. Beidelschies is making much better pitches with his fastball and mixing in his slider better and we’re seeing an increase in swing-and-miss and fewer deep counts and walks. Beidelschies really has to be perfect with his pitches because he doesn’t have the velocity to get guys out consistently with his fastball, and while he hasn’t been perfect he has been a lot better lately and it’s allowing him to get into his slider and changeup which are both able to flash average potential. Beidelschies still had a lot of traffic throughout this outing and the amount of hard contact he gives up on fastballs over the plate is concerning, however it’s the progress we’re looking at and Beidelschies is in his best stretch of the season. He is starting to show some signs of being a guy who can advance through the system rather than stalling at the lower levels, though the command is still far from where it needs to be for him to find success even in High-A. Professional hitters at all levels are capable of hitting low 90’s in the middle of the strike zone and Beidelschies isn’t going to survive if that continues to be a trend.

Swing and Misses

Landon Beidelschies – 14

Adiel Melendez – 4

As has been the case for much of this season, the Orioles come into this weekend’s series vs. the Braves with a point to prove. Baltimore thought they proved they were ready to be playoff contenders by sweeping the Astros in Houston. That point was then undercut by losing two out of three in Fenway—though winning the series finale and ending the Red Sox’s 15-game winning streak was a nice consolation. 

Now, the O’s welcome another playoff team to Baltimore while looking to make up ground in the Wild Card race (and dissuade the front office from selling at the deadline). On paper, the Braves look like an intimidating foe, especially for an Orioles team that needs wins right now. 

Atlanta is four games in front of Philadelphia in a very competitive NL East, and has been on top of that division for basically the entire season. The Orioles, on the other hand, have struggled to stay out of the AL East basement most of the year, and were the last AL team to string together a four-game winning streak. 

However, the two teams have been heading in different directions of late. The once juggernaut-ish Braves have gone 20-22 across June and July, while seeing their offense struggle. Atlanta had one of the best lineups in baseball to begin the year, averaging 5.3 runs/game across the first two months of the season. During this recent skid, they’ve dropped to 4.6 runs/game across June and July. 

The offensive downturn has largely coincided with the injury to superstar Ronald Acuña Jr., who’s been on the IL since June 10th with a hamstring injury. The former NL MVP is currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A, and there’s an outside chance he could rejoin the Braves in Baltimore this weekend. 

The Orioles will need to overcome their own injury woes if they want to keep their recent hot streak going. The O’s are 11-5 in July and 8-2 in their last 10. However, the lineup is now without the likes of Blaze Alexander (broken hand), Adley Rutschman (left wrist inflammation) and Samuel Basallo (right shoulder inflammation). Christian Encarnacion-Strand has so far filled in admirably for Alexander, but backup catchers Sam Huff and Chadwick Tromp have yet to record a hit since rejoining the roster. 

The O’s have won two straight series against the Braves, sweeping them in Atlanta last season and taking two of three in Baltimore back in 2024. The O’s will hope to they can replicate last season’s offensive performance against Atlanta, with the Baltimore bats launching six home runs in the three-game sweep of the Braves. 

Game 1, Friday, July 24th, 7:05pm ET

Probable pitchers: TBD vs. RHP Grant Holmes (6-4, 3.70 ERA, 78 Ks)

Where to watch: MASN/MASN+

After reshuffling the rotation to give Kyle Bradish some more rest after signing his extension, the O’s have to come up with a creative solution for Friday’s starter. Cade Povich could get called up from Norfolk to make his first start in the big leagues since May 7th. The lefty has faced off with the Braves once before, tossing six shutout innings in a 4-2 Baltimore win. The O’s could also bring back Trey Gibson from the minors, or use Albert Suárez as an opener in a bullpen game. 

Grant Holmes pitched against Trevor Rogers last year in Atlanta, taking the loss despite a quality start. Holmes posted a final line of 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB and 5 Ks in a 2-1 Orioles win, with his only real mistake coming on a two-run home run from Jackson Holliday. Holmes has been similarly sharp of late, pitching to a 1.89 ERA over his last four starts. He doesn’t usually give Atlanta much length, though, as he averages less than five innings per start this season. 

Game 2, Saturday, July 25th, 7:05pm ET

Probable pitchers: LHP Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.28 ERA, 77 Ks) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (6-6, 4.06 ERA, 90 Ks)

Where to watch: MASN/MASN+

If you looked at Trevor Rogers’ stats for the season, you might think he’s having a down season across the board. If you’ve watched Trevor Rogers pitch recently, you’d know that he’s back to being the exact same pitcher that won MVO in 2025. 

Since the calendar turned to June, Rogers has a 1.69 ERA across eight starts while limiting opposing hitters to a .206 average. Each start also carries a little extra significance for Rogers, who is a pending free agent after the season. During the broadcast of Wednesday’s first game, Rogers gave an interview where he said extension talks have not started with the Orioles, but he really wants to stay in Baltimore. 

If the southpaw wants to convince the O’s to offer him an extension, he’ll need to reverse his career numbers against the Braves. In nine starts against Atlanta while with the Marlins, Rogers pitched to a 5.57 ERA while taking the loss in seven of the nine outings. He did dominate his former NL East rival last year with the Orioles, pitching 6.2 shutout innings with six Ks. 

Former All-Star Bryce Elder will oppose the Orioles’ Opening Day starter, looking to build some positive momentum. Elder, like the Braves, got off to a hot start this year but has since faded. Through his first 11 starts of the season, the 27-year-old right-hander had a 1.97 ERA and .190 average against. In eight starts since then, he’s allowed 12 home runs, put up a 7.65 ERA and given up a .321 average to opponents. Elder faced the Orioles once before, putting up a line of 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB and 4 Ks. 

Game 3, Sunday, July 26th, 1:35pm ET

Probable pitchers: RHP Brandon Young (8-2, 3.25 ERA, 74 Ks) vs. RHP Reynaldo López (4-3, 3.95 ERA, 60 Ks)

Where to watch: MASN/MASN+

Brandon Young avenged his worst start of the season last time out. After giving up 10 runs over four innings earlier this year vs. the Astros, Young pitched seven innings of one-run ball last Sunday in Houston. Young continues to be synonymous with winning for the O’s, with Baltimore going 13-3 in games started by the big Texan. 

Young has made significant strides this year when it comes to pitching at Camden Yards. Last season, in seven starts in front of the Birdland faithful, the right-hander had an 8.72 ERA and a .346 average against. This year in Baltimore, BY has a 3.08 ERA while holding opponents to a .258 average. The 27-year-old will also look to improve his numbers in Interleague play, as he comes into this matchup with a 5.02 ERA in nine starts against the National League. 

Looking to put a stop to Young’s hot streak is 2024 All-Star Reynaldo López. The 32-year-old Dominican missed most of last season with a shoulder injury and has split time between the rotation and bullpen this season. He just returned to the rotation full time a month ago, and in five starts since has a 4.84 ERA while averaging just over four innings per start. 

López has pitched in Baltimore five times before, limiting the O’s to a .203 average and putting up a 2.08 ERA. In his last visit to Camden Yards during his All-Star season, he tossed six shutout innings while limiting the Orioles to two hits and striking out eight. 

Let us know in the comments whether the Orioles will sweep the Braves, get swept or something in between.

Columbus Clippers 3, St. Paul Saints 4

Clippers fall to 51-47

Columbus looked like it had done enough to win, scoring a go-ahead run in the top of the ninth inning, but the bullpen couldn’t hold it.

Cooper Ingle went beast mode, going 4-for-5 from the leadoff position while Angel Genao went 2-for-4 with a walk and Juan Brito also went 2-for-4 with a double. Milan Tolentino walked twice and stole a base.

Starting pitcher Austin Peterson did his job, allowing two runs on eight hits with two strikeouts and a walk in 5.1 innings.

Ryan Webb added 1.2 scoreless, hitless frames and the recently-activated Carlos Hernandez added a perfect eighth inning before Jack Leftwich gave up three hits in the bottom of the ninth to take the loss and earn his first blown save of the season.

Akron RubberDucks 0, Altoona Curve 1

RubberDucks fall to 43-49

Josh Hartle pitched one of the best games of his career, but it wasn’t enough as Akron’s offense was a no-show on Thursday.

Hartle dominated, striking out eight and walking one in 5.2 scoreless innings while allowing just two hits. This was his second straight scoreless outing of at least five innings so hopefully he’s turning a corner in the second half.

Jay Driver was excellent in relief, adding 2.1 scoreless frames with four strikeouts. Unfortunately, Izaak Martinez gave up one run in the top of the ninth inning and Akron couldn’t answer.

Nolan Schubart reached base safely twice, going 1-for-3 with a walk. Aaron Walton also walked twice. Tyresse Turner went 1-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base.

Lake County Captains 15, Fort Wayne TinCaps 3

Captains improve to 52-37

Half of your offense has been promoted to Akron? No problem!

Rake County was at it again on Thursday. Crazy as it sounds, despite having position players Jaison Chourio, Luke Hill, Nolan Schubart, Bennett Thompson, Ryan Cesarini, Aaron Walton and Dean Curley all get promoted to Double-A, the team just continues to blast baseballs.

A whopping seven players in the lineup still have an OPS over .800.

Everyone got in on the action Thursday, with Juneiker Caceres leading the charge by going 3-for-6 with two doubles. He now has an OPS of 1.032 despite having been promoted a level recently.

Also standing out was Welbyn Francisca, who has been heating up big time. Francisca went 3-for-5 with a home run and a double. Jeffrey Mercedes also had a three-hit game, going 3-for-4 with a home run and a walk.

Jonah Advincula could have pouted about being demoted, but he is raking instead. He went 2-for-5 with a double, a walk and three stolen bases. Jace LaViolette also broke out of his recent slump, going 2-for-4 with a home run, a double and two walks.

Starting pitcher Will McCausland didn’t have his best stuff, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits in 3.0 innings. He struck out three and walked one.

Melkis Hernandez was sensational out of the bullpen. He struck out a whopping eight batters in 3.0 scoreless innings without walking anyone. Logan McGuire finished off the win with 2.0 scoreless frames.

Hill City Howlers 9, Delmarva Shorebirds 10 (F/8) Game 1
Hill City Howlers 5, Delmarva Shorebirds 13 Game 2

Hillcats fall to 40-53

In game one, catcher Reiner Herrera missed hitting for the cycle by a single, going 3-for-4 with a home run, a triple and a double.

Riley Nelson also had a terrific game, going 2-for-2 with two walks. Also homering were Cannon Peebles, who went 1-for-3 with a walk; and Luis De La Cruz, who went 1-for-4. Dauri Fernandez singled and walked, but was caught stealing twice.

Starting pitcher Aidan Major allowed four runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings with three strikeouts and no walks. He was relieved by Evan Chrest, who was tattooed for five runs in just 1.1 frames. The game was tied until the eighth inning when Javi Torres allowed the ghost runner to score to take the loss.

Hill City was in control of game two all the way until the final two innings.

Victor Izturis went 2-for-3 with a double and Riley Nelson tripled.

Starting pitcher Miguel Flores allowed four runs on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts in 5.0 innings. Luke Fernandez had a nightmare relief outing, allowing seven runs on five hits with three walks in just 1.1 frames.