Category: MLB

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It's a getaway slate with lots of potential rain spots on the board. The hot weather has come and gone, so digging for some home run gems and MLB player props means circling the few HR-plus matchups.

Merrill Kelly is coming back down to Earth today after going the distance at Coors Field in his last start, and the HR potential in Anaheim today might be the best on the board.

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 20. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Mike Trout	+316
Willy Adames	+557

Home run pick: Mike Trout (+316)

I'm kicking myself for avoiding Mike Trout yesterday in a good spot, but at a sub-300 pricetag, it was a pass. That won't be the case today at +316 with a fair price at +280. Trout snapped a 12-game HR drought last night in Anaheim, and his swing speed is not dropping as we enter the Summer months of the season, which can be a worry for the oft-injured outfielder.

Trout gets Aaron Civale, who is a bottom-25 starter in BlastCont% and a pitcher he has already taken deep in a small six-at-bat sample. He isn't the only Halo projecting +EV, as Zach Neto (+433) and Jo Adell (+399) are also on the list. Neto has been crushing, and I bet Adell in yesterday's MLB picks, so the day-after theory is in full effect.

With a lot of rain on the slate, 6-mph winds blowing out to center with mid-70-degree temperatures are creating one of the better hitting environments with a pair of bad bullpens.  

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, NBCSCA

Home run pick: Willy Adames (+557)

I have Merrill Kelly ranked as one of the worst starters on the board today. He gets hit hard, his fly balls leave the yard, and the expected metrics suggest the damage is fully deserved. He’s also coming off a complete game, and that recent two-start stretch against weaker offenses feels due for a hard correction. Just three starts ago, he was carrying a 9.95 ERA with six home runs allowed over a 19-inning span.

Willy Adames is the target today, and Rafael Devers was unfortunately left off the card yesterday despite getting plenty of consideration. Adames has logged 25 at-bats against Kelly, which is a meaningful sample and gives the hitter a sizeable information edge. He’s already taken him deep twice and owns a .946 OPS in the matchup.

Adames has homered in back-to-back games and has an extra-base hit in four of his last five. I’m backing the hot bat in what could be the best starting pitcher matchup on the board, especially with potential weather concerns hanging over the Zack Littell spot.

• Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, NBCS BA

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Just remember this old adage when thinking about the Cubs’ 5-2 loss to the Brewers and the current four-game losing streak: No team is as bad as it looks when on a losing streak. (Conversely, no team is as good as it looks when on a winning streak, and that includes this year’s Cubs.)

So exactly what sort of team is this Cubs team? A team that needs better starting pitching, for one. A team that needs a couple of key hitters to start hitting like they’re capable of. And a team that needs shutdown relief.

All of those things were in evidence Tuesday evening at Wrigley Field.

Everyone knew this was not going to be an easy game with Jacob Misiorowski throwing for Milwaukee. His numbers coming in were ridiculous: Of 202 batters faced before Tuesday, he’d struck out 80 of them — a 39.6 percent strikeout rate. And the Cubs couldn’t do anything with him for the first five innings, even while the first two Cubs hitters of the game reached base. Nico Hoerner walked and Michael Busch reached on an error. All that led to was an 0-for-3 with RISP — just for that inning alone. But the Cubs did make Misiorowski throw 26 pitches in the first inning, and that’s not a bad game plan against the Brewers fireballer — see if you can run up his pitch count and get him out of the game early.

It didn’t work, because over the next four innings, Misiorowski dispatched the Cubs on just 40 total pitches. They managed a single by Seiya Suzuki in the fourth and another single by Dansby Swanson in the fifth. Swanson was erased on a double play.

Meanwhile, Ben Brown didn’t have a terrible start. It wasn’t quite as good as his first two. He allowed seven hits and three runs in five innings, striking out six. The key to both the innings in which the Brewers scored, the first and third, were walks. A one-out walk in the first turned into a manufactured run for Milwaukee. A two-out walk in the third led to another such run, and the other run off Brown was on a wild pitch.

Basically, Brown had to be as good as Misiorowski to give the Cubs a chance, and he wasn’t. That’s not a knock on Brown, who looked decent enough. It’s just that the Cubs couldn’t do anything against Misiorowski. Hoerner, in the first inning, was the only Cubs runner past first base through six.

Here are Brown’s six strikeouts [VIDEO].

Jacob Webb threw a scoreless sixth and Caleb Thielbar, just returned from an IL stint, threw a scoreless seventh. So that’s good; perhaps the pen is stabilizing a bit.

Or, maybe it was before Trent Thornton threw the eighth. He allowed a one-out walk and after recording the second out, served up a home-run ball to Brice Turang.

At 5-0 entering the bottom of the eighth, this one appeared hopeless, but the Cubs did put together a rally. Pete Crow-Armstrong led off with a single and took third when Miguel Amaya doubled into the ivy in left-center.

Nico’s single made it 5-1 [VIDEO].

Busch and Alex Bregman then struck out. After that, Ian Happ walked to load the bases. A single by Suzuki made it 5-2 [VIDEO].

So the bases are still loaded and the tying run is on base. Moisés Ballesteros, back in the lineup at DH, is the scheduled hitter against lefty Aaron Ashby. Craig Counsell sent Matt Shaw up to bat for Ballesteros, knowing that Pat Murphy would counter with a right-hander, which he did, calling Chad Patrick into the game.

Michael Conforto was sent up to bat for Shaw, which is obviously the matchup Counsell wanted. And Conforto, as you know, has had a flair for the dramatic lately.

Not this time, unfortunately. Conforto hit into a force play to end the inning.

Phil Maton entered the game to throw the ninth and that created visions of this 5-2 game becoming a 7-2 game or worse, given Maton’s recent failures. But Maton retired the Brewers 1-2-3. That provides at least a bit of hope that Maton can become a useful part of the Cubs bullpen.

The Cubs went down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth to end it. Swanson thought he had led off with a walk, but Brewers catcher William Contreras challenged the pitch and it wound up strike three [VIDEO].

Close, but definitely a strike.

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

With the loss and the Cardinals defeating the Pirates, the Cubs drop to third in the NL Central, virtually tied with St. Louis but a few percentage points behind. Both teams are half a game behind the Brewers.

So again… no team is as bad as it looks when on a losing streak. They just ran into a really good pitcher in this one (Bluesky link):

The Cubs are better than this, and they will win again. Many times. Hopefully, starting tonight at Wrigley Field when they attempt to avoid a sweep. Edward Cabrera will start for the Cubs and Kyle Harrison goes for the Brewers. Game time is again 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

I’ve created a bit of a dilemma for myself. (Not Jonah Heim related.)

I’m at least reasonably committed to doing the Big Board… but all the questions that I’ve come up with, and that people submitted responses and confidence ratings to, are all scored at the end of the year — except the Braves’ manager one, which is the only one to assign points so far. I’ve wanted to do in-season questions that are resolved and scored sooner, but the 2026 Braves season, as great as it has been, hasn’t lent itself to that for whatever reason. With the Braves dominating, there just hasn’t been much worthwhile, meaty debate on stuff that should or could happen. (I also have a separate dilemma about the best way to score certain things, but… that will be its own series of posts as we get closer to the end of the season and the need for scoring things.)

With that said, I do think Drake Baldwin’s injury and the Braves’ current catching situation lends itself to an in-season question… but, unfortunately, it’s another one that can really only be resolved at the end of the year. Anyway, here goes…

As the Braves waited for Sean Murphy to recover from hip surgery, they signed Jonah Heim to a low-cost ($1.25 million) MLB deal. Heim was an elite defensive catcher from 2021-2023, and the Rangers’ title run coincided with him starting to hit a bit, too, garnering a 4 fWAR season in the process. However, his career fell apart afterwards. Maybe it was the wrist injury he suffered in 2023. Maybe it was something else less overt. But, he went back to not hitting, and more damningly, he went from a cream-of-the-crop defensive catcher to a below-average one. Despite playing for 400+ PAs in both 2024 and 2025, he clocked in below replacement, tallying a combined -0.6 fWAR in the process. His time with the Braves before he was traded was similar despite the small sample of 45 PAs: a .275ish xwOBA, and well below average defensive play. The only reason Heim ended up at +0.1 fWAR in that sample was because he massively outhit his xwOBA in those 45 PAs.

So, that’s Jonah Heim. But, with both Murphy and Baldwin down, the Braves’ other options are… also bad.

Sandy Leon is a 37-year-old veteran of 14 major league seasons who is about as replacement-level as they come. He has a .250ish career xwOBA, and was consistently below replacement from 2019-2025 because he simply can’t hit enough despite the decent defense he sometimes provides. He has a career 0.3 fWAR in 1,752 PAs. He also hasn’t actually provided useful defensive value since 2019, either. It’s not clear why the Braves really wanted Leon rather than some other option, enough to fish him out of the Mexican League when Murphy got hurt again, but here we are.

Chadwick Tromp is 31 years old and is largely a Quad-A catcher. His career xwOBA is even worse than Leon’s (in the .230s). He’s generally gotten positive defensive marks when he’s played enough to accrue them, but he only has 179 career PAs at the big league level. His 0.4 fWAR in that span kinda suggests that he might actually be a serviceable MLB backup catcher, but the problem is that he has a .264 wOBA / .234 xwOBA over those 179 PAs, and if he had a .234 wOBA instead, that positive value probably evaporates. Tromp hasn’t even hit in the minors since 2024. The upside is unclear, if it exists.

The Braves could go outside the organization for temporary help. Unfortunately, there don’t seem to be a lot of options. Guys like Austin Wynns have been on the waiver wire recently, but they’re basically Leon-esque, no hit, some field, veteran options. Heim hasn’t been good in a while but was at least useful once; many of these waiver wire options have rarely gotten MLB exposure and haven’t done much when they have, even if they’ve been around the game for a decade or more.

So, here’s my question to you:

There are two “buckets” of production, for which we’ll use fWAR.

Bucket One is Jonah Heim, since the Braves traded him. (Irrespective of whether he goes anywhere else.) Right now, he has -0.2 fWAR in 20 PAs, which is a bizarrely hilarious -6 fWAR/600 PAs. This bucket consists of that -0.2, plus whatever else Heim does for the rest of the season.

Bucket Two is every non-Baldwin, non-Murphy player the Braves use at catcher this year. This includes Leon, Tromp, and anyone else they use as a stopgap. Leon is currently at -0.1 fWAR (-5.5 fWAR/600, in all of 11 PAs). Tromp had a single in his only PA yesterday, so he’s at 0.1 fWAR in 1 PA. (I’m not pro-rating that, el-oh-el.) This bucket consists of everything Leon, Tromp, and any other guys the Braves acquire to catch do for the team over the course of the season.

Your choices are as follows:

In the below, production means “taking Heim’s rate basis production and applying it over the set of PAs accrued by non-Baldwin, non-Murphy Braves catchers for the rest of the year.” Yes, this is subject to insane variation depending on how much Heim plays. But, there isn’t a better way to do this, I don’t think, because with Heim barely playing for the Athletics, while the Braves are forced to use multiple catchers due to injury, doing a straight-up fWAR basis wouldn’t work.

A: Bucket One (Heim) outproduces Bucket Two (Leon, Tromp, anyone else) by at least 1.0 fWAR. In other words, this is a meaningful difference.

B: Bucket One outproduces Bucket Two, but only by 0.5 to 0.9 fWAR. In other words, yeah, better production, but not really enough to swing anything.

C: Bucket One outproduces Bucket Two by less than 0.5 fWAR, which includes Bucket Two producing more than Bucket One.

Note that due to the quality of player we’re talking about here, “outproduce” can definitely mean less negative.

As usual with these, please assign a confidence score, where 5 is “I am absolutely certain this will occur” and 1 is “I have no idea but feel like participating in this anyway.” So, an answer would be something like A1 (you think it’d be funny if Heim was more productive but you aren’t staking much on it) or C5 (you are certain that the Braves won’t regret shipping Heim off). I kind of imagine that based on the types of people that have participated in these Big Board-soliciting questions, this will be heavily C3 through C5 rather than any As or Bs, but if you truly believe in Heim, here’s your chance to get some Big Board points and gloat later.

Cheering for a lousy baseball team can be a real drag. As the season progresses, the margin for error shrinks. Outcomes become more crucial as the trade deadline creeps into the picture. It’s an unpleasant scenario where wins provide relief instead of joy. Each defeat hurts more and more as the season evolves into death by 1,000 cuts.

Is that a little dramatic? Maybe. But that’s how it felt last season when the Orioles fired Brandon Hyde after a 15-28 start. The team sunk its season by the end of May, and fans were left with a long wait for another chance to compete in 2026.

The Orioles have yet to completely squander another season, but things don’t look great. The heightened frustration comes with a panic that the winning window could be closing before Baltimore achieves any success in the postseason. The Rays and Yankees appear destined for a competitive division race, and the Blue Jays—not the Orioles—feel like the struggling team that could eventually make a run.

It’s times like these when searching for the positives feels like grasping at straws. The Orioles need some real changes if they’re going to recover from a disappointing start. What exactly could those changes be?

Jackson Holliday made his first start of the season last night. Camden Chat’s John Beers asked yesterday if Jackson Holliday can make this team better. While Holliday probably won’t make a drastic immediate impact, he represents the sole infield reinforcement with Jordan Westburg officially out for the season.

Holliday is a former number one overall draft choice with plenty of untapped potential. The 22-year-old will likely need to shake off a little rust, and the hamate procedure could rob the young infielder of his power for an extended period. Still, Holliday could breakout as a talented table setter if he manages to find the outfield grass more than Jeremiah Jackson and Blaze Alexander.

Any significant change in fortune would require significant improvement from the starting rotation. Trevor Rogers has been getting absolutely shelled to the point that many are wondering if he’s tipping his pitches. Rogers inability to put away hitters, especially after his level of dominance last season, doesn’t compute.

Rogers will be a free agent at the end of the season. Last year, he looked like a player that the Orioles could not afford to let walk. He’s been a below replacement level player in 2026.

Speaking of replacements, the rotation has needed a few. Injuries to Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich have already carved out a spot for Brandon Young. Young and Povich were the guys penciled in as pitching depth this season. Povich recently received a cortisone injection, and the Orioles have yet to provide a timetable for a return. The lack of additional depth has shifted more youngsters into the picture.

Trey Gibson already made his major league debut. Gibson, Baltimore’s second best pitching prospect according to MLB Pipeline, already has two short big league stints under his belt. The 24-year-old is not currently on the 26-man roster, but he’ll be back at some point with a chance to make an impact. Unfortunately, even replacement-level pitching from Gibson or another Norfolk starter would represent an improvement of Rogers or Chris Bassitt.

There are other Norfolk starters by the way. Nestor German and Levi Wells both rank in the team’s Top 15 prospects. German and Wells look slightly less polished than Gibson, but the trio represent the latest wave of starting pitching hope with guys like Luis De León, Joseph Dzierwa, and Juaron Watts Brown still another click away.

I always find myself looking to these pitching groups when searching for optimism. Dreaming on pitching prospects is a right of passage for struggling teams. It’s more difficult when the team does not prioritize pitching in the draft, but that’s a conversation for another day.

Prospects like Gibson, German and Wells could make a positive impact at some point, but they can’t save the Orioles season. Vintage Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander aren’t walking through that door either. If this team wants to win, the guys already here need to play better. Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso have to perform like stars. Rogers and Shane Baz need to pitch to their “Cy Young potential.” Coby Mayo and Colton Cowser have to find a way to hit above the Mendoza line. It really seems to be that simple.

The Orioles are 21-28 with a -57 run differential. I refuse to completely throw in the towel before Memorial Day for the second consecutive year, but the search for optimism continues to be a struggle.

The Phillies have gauged Gage’s progress, and they have found much to be impressed with. The young hurler, less than a year removed from his selection in the first round of the draft, has been sent straight from Low-A Clearwater to Double A Reading. That’s a ringing endorsement from the organization. He had been talked about as a potential fast-mover when he was drafted, and the promotion seems to bear that out. He’s two promotions away from joining the Show, and those promotions could come fast.

Today’s question is: WillGage Wood play for the Phillies this season?

Happy Wednesday, everyone. While there might not be much to celebrate if you’re looking at the Tigers’ place in the standings, we have a little good news to temper the bad in today’s links. For starters, Tarik Skubal is already throwing bullpens, which has to give anyone a glimmer of hope. Plus, the Tigers have played community heroes by visiting a few charities to show support. I’m leading with the good, because Sports Illustrated also wrote an entire article highlighting how the Tigers have become one of the worst teams in baseball, and while we want to be defensive, they raise some valid points.

We also take a look at news around baseball, including the return of Gerrit Cole to the Yankees, and a look at one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in baseball. All that and more in today’s post, so let’s get right into it.

Detroit Tigers News

• Kyle Koster explained in a recent post why the Tigers have become one of the worst teams in baseball. Besides the obvious: injuries, not enough pitching, he also points to the delayed development of young talent, saying:

Colt Kieth is having a strong year fueled by a .293 batting average. Yet he hasn’t homered the entire year and has six RBIs in 43 games. Spencer Torkelson, already sent down to the minors once in his career, is carrying a .191 average with 61 strikeouts. Meadows, though injured, hasn’t matured into the player the organization thought he could be and Carpenter has taken a step back from solid production last season.

• But wait, there’s good news, because Tarik Skubal threw a bullpen session this week! ($)
• Tigers doing good.

AL Central News

• Salvador Perez of the Royals pushed umpire Laz Diaz to the brink after multiple ABS challenges.
• Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong will be fined an undisclosed amount for his interaction with a White Sox fan. PCA has apologized for his inappropriate language used with a female fan who was heckling him.

MLB News

• Blake Snell is the newest pitcher who will miss time due to loose bodies in the elbow.
• How the Padres managed to find themselves atop the NL West.
• A good trick play never gets old.
• Do the Brewers have the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball?
• Could Jackson Holliday be changing positions with the Orioles?
• Some much-too-early predictions for the All-Star Game.
• Why Konnor Griffin is one of the youngest and most precocious millionaires in baseball.
• One stat to explain the weirdness of the Washington Nationals.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is great in the postseason, but the Blue Jays need him now.
• The Yankees will finally see the season debut of Gerrit Cole this week.
• A big donation will help the Field of Dreams complete their new stadium.
• Can’t unsee it now.

• Perhaps I shouldn’t laugh, but I did.

• Two different generations of Japanese talent in one place.

• This looks fake.

On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Water finds its level. Everything regresses to the mean. Insert your euphemism here. One of the things we notice with numbers is that over time they usually approach what we would have expected. Unfortunately for the Astros catchers, they are left with Christian Vazquez getting regular starts with Yainer Diaz out.

On Monday, we looked at the league average BPO and discovered that is currently sits at .663. Please feel free to go back and read that piece for a primer on bases per out. What we did there is look at the league average BPO, so that we can calculate and BPO+. Since we are introducing a new stat, I will also include OPS+ just to compare the two.

Obviously, that includes a ballpark adjustment for the three catchers as well. The Astros wound up with a 101 overall park factor so far on the season, so we multiply each player’s BPO by .995 (since half of their games are on the road) to get their BPO+. Obviously, some positions will naturally have more production than others. Let’s get this thing started.

Catcher BPO

One of the things we do to measure the efficacy of numbers is to compare them with other numbers we know have value. Yainer Diaz has a 69 OPS+, Vazquez has a 98 OPS+, and Salazar has a -5 OPS+. It is important to note how OPS and BPO are different. OPS is a nice, quick reference for offensive production (it explains approximately 90 percent of the variance in run production), but it has some significant holes.

The primary hole is a math problem that is difficult to get around. A player like Ty Cobb will have a .360 batting average. That means he will have at least a .360 OBP and a slugging percentage of at least .360. That’s a .720 OPS before we have even accounted for anything outside of batting average. Granted, there are no Ty Cobb’s running around, but there is Luis Arreaz of the Giants.

He has a 132 OPS+ due in large part to a .328 average through May 17th. His .807 OPS is not that impressive when you consider that .656 of it is tied up in batting average. His BPO+ is actually 113. I would still rather have him on my team than not, but one is reminiscent of an all-star and the other is reminiscent of a solid regular. That is because one counts batting average twice and the other does it once.

Vazquez’s numbers in April were unsustainable. Every predictive stat told us that. Part of that is that the power numbers just didn’t match the quality of the contact. The other part is that he is a 35 year old catcher that is suddenly playing five games a week. Even those of us that were souring on Diaz ideally wanted a work share between them.

Critics would correctly point out that you can’t have an all-star at every position and these numbers do not account for the defensive contributions of the player. This is where I would point to another feature I write over Battle Red Blog called “The Value of Things.” The concept is the same as the lab. Every player has an appropriate value and when players get their appropriate value then teams are usually able to afford more reinforcements.

Thankfully, Dana Brown did not extend Yainer Diaz like we would have liked to have seen him do after 2023 and 2024. I’d imagine that he will not end up at a 69 BPO+ when the season ends. His OPS+ last season was a 93 and that seems like a reasonable target for him. His OPS+ has dropped every year from 2023 on and it might very well drop to 85 or 90 this season.

From 1980 to 1988, the Astros kept throwing Alan Ashby out as their primary catcher. Each year they kept telling themselves he would only be the guy until they found someone better. In ten seasons (counting 1979) as the primary catcher, Ashby sported a 101 OPS. Diaz will end up being very similar and when you consider the defensive issues, the Astros will continue on with Diaz much the same way they continued on with Ashby all of those years.

Diaz will only be the guy as long as he is affordable and there is no one else better. Once one of those two things ceases to be the case, he will no longer be the regular catcher. With Walker Janek getting off to a rough start in Corpus Christi, there might not be any reinforcements any time soon. Vazquez and Salazar are here as long as they are cheap. That leaves the expansive world outside of Houston to shop for an improvement.

The last consideration will be the collective bargaining agreement. There will almost certainly be changes to the service time issue and that could also come with changes to arbitration and free agency. Diaz currently makes 4.5 million in arbitration. No one gets a pay cut in arbitration. So, Diaz could end up being a non-tender candidate if things don’t improve drastically. Otherwise you are looking at likely six or seven million for a below average catcher. Based on what you see, what are your recommendations?

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The Arizona Diamondbacks look to complete the sweep this afternoon against the San Francisco Giants, with first pitch scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field. 

My Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions are targeting Arizona to get the job done in the series finale, with the improving Merrill Kelly taking the hill. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 20. 

Who will win Giants vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks moneyline (-127)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have looked solid in this series, winning the opener 12-2 before a 5-3 victory on Tuesday evening. The D-Backs own a 14-9 record at home, and they've gone 5-1 across the last six meetings with the San Francisco Giants. 

Merrill Kelly takes the mound for the hosts, and while his 5.91 ERA is concerning, he's been better lately. The right-hander has only allowed two earned runs across his previous two starts, and Kelly even threw a complete-game shutout last week against the Colorado Rockies. 

On the other side, Tyler Mahle owns a 1-5 record and 5.59 ERA, and he's given up nine earned runs across his last two outings. Also, Mahle has an alarming 8.38 ERA on the road. 

COVERS INTEL: Mahle isn't fooling anyone, with chase and whiff rates that rank in the 25th and 26th percentiles, respectively. 

Giants vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+105)

I don't expect either starter to be completely lights out, but I also don't see the rubber match being high-scoring. Five of their last seven meetings have cashed the Under, and we saw only eight runs scored on Tuesday. 

Mahle is prone to giving up runs, and the D-Backs offense is rolling, ranking ninth in runs scored. Kelly is starting to find his best after a shaky start to the campaign, and the Giants are 30th in runs scored and 27th in both wRC+ and home runs. 

You'll see another Arizona-heavy offensive performance here, similar to the rest of this series. Both bullpens, which have pitched well lately, will hold it down after the starters exit. 

Giants vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Giants +113 | Diamondbacks -136
• Run line: Giants +1.5 (-186) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+153)
• Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)

Giants vs Diamondbacks trend

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Giants vs Diamondbacks and game info

Giants vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

Giants vs Diamondbacks weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Rangers 10, Rockies 0

• The Rangers, they are on a run-scoring bonanza.
• They Rangers have now scored at least 6 runs in their last three games, and in 5 of their last 7 games.
• However, the offense has to wait, because the story of the game has to be Kumar Rocker, right?
• Coming into this game, Rocker had allowed 18 runs on the season. 10 of those scored in the first inning. The Rangers decided, well, what if we don’t use Kumar Rocker in the first inning?
• So the Opener, which was in vogue in the late-teens, but whose use seems to have waned around MLB of late, got dusted off by Skip Schumaker and put on display Tuesday evening.
• Tyler Alexander was the official starter and faced four batters in a scoreless first, setting up Kumar Rocker to come into the game in the second inning and face the #5 batters in the Rockies’ lineup.
• Rocker did not get off to the greatest of starts in the second. Ezequiel Tovar smoked a line drive that was tracked down in deep left center, and then Troy Johnston and Tyler (Brother of Cody) Freeman each singled. Second inning Rocker looked a lot like first inning Rocker.
• Rocker then struck out Jake McCarthy swinging and Edouard Julien on a 4-3 ground out to end the inning, and end the best scoring chance the Rockies had all game. Colorado didn’t get another batter past first base.
• Rocker faced 28 batters in the game. Of the final 25 batters, he gave up a hit to one of them, walked three, and retired the other 21.
• It was, without question, the best outing of Rocker’s career, and an outing that reminded us why we were so hyped about Kumar Rocker heading into the 2025 season.
• Out of 103 pitches, Rocker threw his slider 44 times, generating 21 swings and 12 whiffs. Rocker had 19 swings and misses overall, easily the most he’s had in a game this season.
• The theory behind using an opener is that most starting pitchers are going to end up going through a lineup roughly two-and-a-half times. Using a starter in a traditional role, the top of the lineup — the opponent’s best hitters — will be the ones that a starter will have to face three times. With an opener, your starter gets the third time through the order penalty against the weaker hitters in the lineup, rather than the top of the lineup.
• In Rocker’s case, the third time through the order penalty wasn’t an issue — he faced 28 batters in the game. But coming into the game in the second inning, he was able to work out whatever kinks he was dealing with against the bottom of the order, rather than the top of the order.
• For the season, Rocker has an 11.25 ERA in the first inning, and a 1.95 ERA from the second inning on.
• I am willing to bet the Rangers go with an opener the next time Rocker is scheduled to pitch.
• The Rockies also went with an opener, but it didn’t go so well for them. When Sammy Peralta, who started for Colorado, left the game, the bases were loaded with two outs in the first and a pair of runs in.
• Things didn’t go a whole lot better for Tanner Gordon, who was the pseudo-starter/bulk guy for the Rockies. He got a groundout to get out of the first and leave the bases loaded — and there was grumbling about the Rangers getting only two runs in, and how this would cost them later in the game, especially with Rocker pitching — but he ultimately gave up 7 runs in 6.1 innings of work.
• Weird thing — in those 6.1 innings, Gordon faced 31 batters, but he only used 81 pitches. The Rangers weren’t up there working the count and wearing him down. Gordon was throwing strikes — he walked just one of those 31 batters — and the Rangers were hammering them.
• Texas had 16 hits in all, plus 6 walks and a hit batter, so maybe they should have scored more than 10 runs. They were 8 for 17 with runners in scoring position, though, so can’t complain there.
• Brandon Nimmo, who has been slumping lately, had a big game, going 3 for 4 with his first home run since April 17, earning a much deserved inning-plus off, with Sam Haggerty taking his place in the field in the eighth.
• In the 25 games since that home run in April, Nimmo had been slashing .219/.296/.281. Tuesday’s game raised his season OPS by 36 points, to 775 on the year.
• Ezequiel Duran had three more hits, including a pair of doubles. He’s now slashing .298/.358/.476 in one of the more (pleasantly) surprising developments of 2026.
• In fact, every starter got a hit in the game, except Alejandro Osuna, who was 0 for 4 with did draw a walk, and Andrew McCutchen, who led off the game with a walk and was pinch hit for in the second.
• Joc Pederson, who hit for McCutchen, had four hits, which, per the broadcast, was the most hits in a game in Rangers history for a player who did not start the game.
• Speaking of which…it ended up not mattering, due to it being a blowout. However, Skip Schumaker having McCutchen lead off, and then hitting for him with one out in the second, seems questionable to me.
• You knew that the Rockies were going to start the game with Peralta, a lefty, as the opener, and then go with the righthanded Tanner Gordon as the bulk guy. That’s why Alejandro Osuna and Evan Carter started, but were batting seventh and ninth, respectively.
• So why not start Pederson and hit him towards the bottom of the order as well? Why are you burning one of your four bench guys — and your top righthanded bench bat — for one plate appearance at the beginning of the game, setting yourself to Pederson potentially having to face a lefty in a key situation late in the game?
• The counter-argument is that the first batter of any inning is the most important batter of the inning, that you want to get to Peralta and get an early lead for Alexander and Rocker, and so having McCutchen’s one at bat being him leading off the first inning is no different than using a good reliever as an opener. And it worked, as McCutchen drew a walk to start the game and ended up scoring on Duran’s bases loaded double.
• But its a decision that I found curious.
• Texas remains a game behind the A’s in the West, due to their winning on Tuesday.
• However, Texas is now a game up on Seattle, who lost to the ChiSox 2-1 due to allowing a pair of runs in the top of the ninth. That’s gotta sting.
• Tyler Alexander hit 92.0 mph with his fastball. Kumar Rocker’s sinker topped out at 94.7 mph, averaging 93.4 mph. Jalen Beeks’ fastball reached 91.8 mph.
• Jake Burger had a 109.4 mph ground out. Alejandro Osuna had a 107.7 mph ground out. Brandon Nimmo had a 107.7 mph single and a 104.6 mph home run. Justin Foscue had a 106.9 mph double. Ezequiel Duran had a 106.4 mph single, a 105.4 mph fly out, and a 104.3 mph double. Joc Pederson had a 105.5 mph single and a 100.5 mph ground out. Josh Jung had a 105.4 mph fly out and a 103.0 mph fly out. Danny Jansen had a 101.5 mph double and a 101.2 mph line out.
• Now for another win on Wednesday to take the series and head into the off day on a (Rocky Mountain) high note.

Meet the Mets

The Mets blew an early five run lead in Washington, losing the game 9-6 to the Nationals. All nine runs were given up by Nolan McLean during his 5.2 innings, though only six were earned.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, Faith and Fear in Flushing, MLB.com, New York Daily News, New York Post, The Athletic

The Mets continued their youth movement by calling up outfield prospect Nick Morabito.

Morabito will add to the speed and athleticism that’s at the core of their influx of young prospects.

Morabito wore the number 8, which has not been given to any player since 2001, frozen to honor Gary Carter.

The number won’t last long, however, as he’ll switch to the number 55, a number he chose for himself.

And despite all the hoopla over the use of Gary Carter’s number, Carter himself might not have cared as much.

The Mets’ youth movement was aided in part by the departures of both Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom.

The Mets added left-handed pitcher Anderson Severino to the 40-man roster, transferred Clay Holmes to the 60-day injured list, and designated Austin Slater for assignment.

Zach Thornton will start tonight’s game against the Nationals without an opener.

Around the National League East

The Marlins know they need to fix their historically hapless franchise, and they’re willing to go to extremes to do so.

The Braves selected Chadwick Tromp to the roster to replace Drake Baldwin, who was placed on the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain.

The Nationals recalling Dylan Crews to the majors isn’t just shuffling deck chairs, as he’s made significant changes and improvements during his time in Triple-A.

The Braves came from behind to beat the Marlins 8-4. Matt Olson was in the center of the action as usual, collecting two hits and two walks while driving in three of Atlanta’s eight runs.

The Phillies had no answer for the Reds, losing 4-1. Jesus Luzardo gave up two runs on five hits in six innings, struck out five, walked two, and got the loss.

Around Major League Baseball

Almost two months into the season, there have been some lessons to take away from the newly-implemented ABS challenge system.

The Twins optioned former first overall pick Royce Lewis today and selected the contract of Orlando Arcia.

Jacob Misiorowski may be the hardest throwing starting pitcher of all time.

Michael Conforto is having a good season, albeit in a limited role, but he also had some help this past week from a faulty ABS challenge.

Gerrit Cole will be making his return from Tommy John surgery on Friday against the Rays.

Following the verbal altercation between Pete Crow-Armstrong and a fan, Crow-Armstrong has been fined an undisclosed amount of money.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

A Pod of Their Own released a new episode.

Steve Sypa returned with this season’s eighth edition of Mets Minor League Players of the Week.

Sypa also helped us become familiar with the newly called-up outfielder Nick Morabito.

This Date in Mets History

Robin Ventura became the first player in major league history to hit a grand slam in both games of a double header in 1999.

Last month, I was given the opportunity to introduce a new series that I have been super excited to explore alongside all of you. It regards a trend we had noticed developing in the Yankees pitching room toward the end of the 2024 season. At that point, the league was still very much in the midst of the four-seamer craze that arose to counter the launch angle revolution. However, something was brewing inside the Yankees pitching lab, and bit by bit we started to see the return of a pitch many thought was made obsolete by this new era of steep swings and high spin — the sinker.

Now, I am thrilled to introduce the first installment in this series about the Yankees’ role in the return of the sinker, and who better to kick things off than perhaps the best pitcher in baseball right now, Cam Schlittler. In analyzing the underpinnings of Schlittler’s meteoric rise, a lot of the focus this season centers on a conversation he had with Gerrit Cole about how to get the most out of his cutter — namely to throw it at max effort. As much as I certainly agree that Schlittler’s newly elite cutter is the principal driver of his success, I also feel that not enough attention gets paid to the adjustments Matt Blake and the rest of the pitching coaches have helped him make on the sinker.

First, let’s start with the physical characteristics of the pitch. In his debut season of 2025, Schlittler’s sinker averaged 97.6 mph, 16.8 inches of vertical drop, and 12.5 inches of arm-side run. This year, it is averaging 97.3 mph, 18.2 inches of vertical drop, and 14.2 inches of arm-side run. There is no appreciable difference in spin rate, spin axis, or active spin from one year to the next, so this extra movement is likely down to a subtle shift in seam orientation at release, taking advantage of seam-shifted wake — turbulence in the laminar air flow across a baseball as it travels through the air caused by a seam’s position independent of the axis of spin — to create more sink and more lateral movement toward the right-handed hitter’s batter’s box.

Next, let’s look at the changes to the pitch’s usage. Schlittler threw the sinker just 6.1-percent of the time in 2025 — that’s up to a 19.1-percent usage rate through ten starts, Schlittler more than tripling the frequency with which he uses the pitch. In 2025, he threw the pitch almost exclusively to righties, only eight of the 76 he threw coming against lefties. The pitch doesn’t have anywhere near as pronounced of a platoon split, Schlittler throwing exactly one-third of his 171 sinkers to lefties. Last season he pretty much only targeted the arm-side edge of the zone with the sinker, burying it in on the hands of right-handed batters. He still tries to jam righties inside with the pitch, but he has also learned to throw it to the glove-side edge of the plate looking to steal a back-door called strike against righties or a front-door called strike against lefties. In this manner, he is able to induce chases and whiffs against sinkers in off the plate against righties and also earn the punch out looking when he starts the sinker in the left-handed batter’s box and allows the arm-side run to carry it into the zone.

Schlittler’s sinker got hit pretty hard in 2025 which perhaps explains his reluctance to use it. Batters were hitting .357 with a 15 degree average launch angle leading to more line drives and fly balls than you would expect against a sinker. This year, they are batting .185 with a zero degree average launch angle, taking the pitch from a 36.4-percent ground ball rate in 2025 to a 67.5-percent ground ball rate in 2026. This is likely down to a combination of factors including Schlittler’s improved command of the pitch, the greater variety of situations and locations he’s willing to throw it, and the improved movement on the pitch.

The most important development with Schlittler’s sinker is the way that it interacts with the other two fastballs in his arsenal, the four-seamer and cutter. A central topic in current pitching research is the importance for pitchers, especially starters, to throw multiple types of fastballs. Schlittler is perhaps the most extreme example of this paradigm, throwing his four-seamer, cutter, and sinker a combined 90.9-percent of the time. It is much harder for the hitter to distinguish one fastball from another than it is to distinguish a fastball from a slider or curveball, meaning that three different pitches that look exactly the same out of the pitcher’s hand can land in very different locations once they get to home plate.

I’ve found that Schlittler has become quite adept at tunneling his sinker with his four-seamer. Check out this example below, a two-pitch sequence against Pete Alonso in the beginning of May:

Schlitter throws a four-seamer pretty much down the middle, the velocity taking it right by Alonso. He then aims a sinker at the exact same starting point, yet the pitch ends up almost a foot inside off the plate, leading to a very awkward check-swing strike from Alonso. It’s no wonder Schlittler throws so many fastballs when he can make the hitter look silly like this throwing just gas.

We all know about the massive jump in velocity that earned Schlittler his call-up in 2025. We also have learned about how instrumental Cole’s advice was in turning Schlittler’s cutter into an almost untouchable pitch. But I truly feel that Schlittler’s gains with the sinker are just as important in transforming him into an ace who looks like he can take the league by storm for years to come.

The Detroit Tigers lost another close game on Tuesday night, succumbing to the Cleveland Guardians, 4-3, in a matchup that saw the good guys go 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position and leaving 10 runners on base. And thus the futility continues…

It looks like AJ Hinch is planning for a bullpen day on Wednesday evening, as no starting pitcher has been announced on MLB Probable Pitchers as of the time of publication, but we do know that right-hander Tanner Bibee will be taking the mound for the visitors.

Bibee’s numbers this season have been suppressed by a couple of outlier outings in what has been mostly a solid campaign so far, despite his ugly record. Four of his 10 starts have been of the quality variety, including his last two, which have seen him put up a 2.84 ERA and 3.59 FIP over 12 2/3 innings, allowing eight hits (one home run) and four walks while striking out 11 and hitting a batter.

Last couple of times the 27-year-old faced the Tigers were in his final two outings of the 2025 campaign — a pair of six-inning, one-run efforts for his 11th and 12th wins of the season.

Detroit Tigers (20-29) vs. Cleveland Guardians (28-22)

Time (ET): 6:40 p.m.
Place: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan
SB Nation Site:Covering the Corner
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 50: TBA vs. RHP Tanner Bibee (0-6, 4.15 ERA)

BIBEE

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The Philadelphia Phillies seek a seventh straight series win when they play the rubber match of their three-game set with the visiting Cincinnati Reds this afternoon.

Cincinnati, however, has been mighty comfortable as an underdog in this head-to-head, which is why my Reds vs Phillies predictions and free MLB picks are siding with the road team on Wednesday, May 20.

Who will win Reds vs Phillies today: Reds moneyline (+127)

In his most recent outing, Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola lasted just 3 2/3 innings against the Pirates, surrendering six runs on six hits, including two homers. It was the third time in five starts he’s allowed at least five earned.

His stuff simply isn't playing anymore, and his barrel and hard-hit rates rank in the 31st and 37th percentiles, respectively.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott has allowed one earned run in his last three starts, rocking a microscopic 0.54 ERA in May.

Coupled with the Reds’ offense in the last two weeks (Top 8 in runs, average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS) and a 3-1 record against the Phillies as an underdog in the last four, it's their series to take, and I'll take this plus-money pricetag against a scuffling Nola any chance I get.

COVERS INTEL:Nathaniel Lowe sat out Tuesday's win, but the DH will surely be in the lineup against Nola, whom he’s owned in a small sample, going 4-for-7 with a home run.

Reds vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+104)

The last seven meetings between the Reds and Phillies have produced an Under record of 6-0-1, with only one matchup touching a combined nine runs.

The Phillies have been an Under machine, going 8-1-0 in their last nine overall. They rank just 20th in scoring, and neither team has lit the world on fire, boasting identical below-averagewRC+ ratings of 93 (tied for 21st in MLB).

With Abbott in a groove and Nola struggling, it’s shaping up for the Reds to carry this to victory, but falling Under the 8.5-run line.

Reds vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Reds +127 | Phillies -133
• Run line: Reds +1.5 (-156) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-108)

Reds vs Phillies trend

Cincinnati has held Philadelphia to one run or less in three of the last four matchups. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Phillies.

How to watch Reds vs Phillies and game info

Reds vs Phillies latest injuries

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At the beginning of the season, Dodgers fans were prepared for Miguel Rojas’s swan song as a big league player. That was the case until he stated that he would have one more go-around if the Dodgers won a third consecutive championship.

There is still much to be discussed between Rojas and his family, as the infielder spoke with David Vassegh of AM 570 ahead of Tuesday’s win over the San Diego Padres about the certainty— or, lack thereof— of his decision to announce his retirement after this year.

“This is my last year— that is something that I said last year,” Rojas told Vassegh. “There’s one possibility, and it’s winning another championship. I’m going to have to sit down with my wife and see what is out there for me, especially with this organization, because I would not want to play for any other team that is not the Dodgers at this point of my life and my career.”

Mookie Betts had Angels outfielder Jo Adell as the most recent guest on the On Base with Mookie Betts podcast, where the two of them discussed how both their teams have or had managed Shohei Ohtani, with both downplaying why Ohtani might be struggling on either side just because he is simply that talented.

Per Betts: “If he doesn’t get a hit or he has a couple bad games, it’s like, ‘What’s wrong with Shohei?’ I mean he did just go seven inning, two hits, he does have a 0.7 ERA. You forget all the other ways he really affects the game.”

Per Adell: “His tenacity and focus when it comes to getting it done, he’s just a force.”

Newly acquired Dodgers left-hander Eric Lauer was activated on Tuesday and is slated to make his Dodger debut in the starting rotation next week. Along with joining the team that beat his Blue Jays in the World Series last year, Lauer will be reuniting with pitching coach Mark Prior. Their previous relationship within the Padres’ farm system has Lauer hopeful that they both can get the left-hander back to form, per Sonja Chen of MLB.com.

“He was pretty spot-on as far as what I was thinking, what I was feeling and what I’m looking to do. What I think can get me back to where I was and just being the best version of myself,” Lauer said. “He’s very open to what I think, too, and that’s the nice thing. It’s conversation. It’s not just, ‘Hey, do this.’ It’s not a drill sergeant or anything. It’s very based on how I feel and what I want and what I think.”

If Payton Tolle came out of obscurity to help the 2025 Red Sox down the stretch, Connelly Early came from another planet. I’m pretty tapped into the farm system. I spend way too much time on Twitter, with an algorithm full of Red Sox content. I knew Tolle; I actually wrote about him well before he was called up, but Alex Speier published a piece about him on the same day I had one planned, so I saved it for closer to his debut. Unlike Tolle, I didn’t know who Early was until shortly before his call-up, and certainly didn’t have expectations for him when he debuted.

He was dominant in his four regular-season starts and pitched well but was let down by his defense in his one postseason start. Through nine starts in 2026, Early has been solid, but not as dominant as he was in late 2025. His ERA is up from 2.33 to 3.21, while his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is up from 0.91 to 4.56. FIP is often cited in determining if a pitcher has been lucky or not because it has some predictive value, but if you allow me to be pretentious for a minute, that’s typically from people who are either uninformed or just lazy. The stat takes balls in play out of the equation and focuses on home runs, strikeouts, and walks. So far this season, his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and he’s allowed seven home runs after allowing zero in his debut season.

Continuing to be pretentious, I am not uninformed or lazy, so I want to know why those stats have trended in that direction. I started with the home runs. He didn’t give up any in 2025, and has already given up seven this season. Here are the locations of those pitches.

Six of the seven have come on belt-high pitches. Other than that, there’s no real trend. It’s not as if they each came when he fell behind in the count, or if there’s one pitch in particular that has been punished. The location, however, is the most important thing. They’re all in the zone, and while Early’s pitches aren’t lollipops, they also aren’t entirely overpowering. His fastball averages 93 mph, and his slider is hard at 87 mph, but they’re both hittable in the wrong locations. There are very few pitchers who can get away with their mistakes over the plate frequently, and Early is no exception.

I did mention that he allowed no home runs last season, though. Part of that is likely because he only threw 19 innings. While he’s still facing many hitters for the first time, he was a relative unknown when he arrived last season, too. The stuff was more or less the same, and there were still some mistakes; they just didn’t go for home runs. That’s baseball, and statistics or something. We move on.

What are we moving on to, you might ask? The strikeouts and walks, of course. Early walked just four of 79 (5.1%) batters faced. This season, he’s walked 18 of 199 (9%). I mentioned this offseason that his 2025 minor league walk rate was close to 10%, so I’m not surprised to see more walks. I am, however, surprised to see the dip in strikeouts.

For starters, there was some statistical regression bound to happen. Early got to two-strike counts against 61% of the hitters he faced last season and turned 60% of those at-bats into strikeouts. The league average for converting two-strike counts into strikeouts is typically about 40%, and while striking out hitters is a skill that some are better at than others, a 60% strikeout conversion rate* is unlikely to be repeated year after year. This season, Early’s rate is, believe it or not, 41%.

*I made the name of this statistic up. It sounds pretty good though, right?

The other area where Early made slight changes was his two-strike pitch selection. I’ll focus on right-handed hitters, because that’s the area where he’s seen the most regression; his strikeout rate fell from 28.1% to 21.8% against righties.

This season, he’s leaned on his four-seam fastball more, while cutting the use of his curveball dramatically. Last season, his curveball was a great weapon for him, registering a 26% putaway rate. This year, that number is down to 13%, and Early has cut the usage as a result. If we look at the heatmaps, it’s pretty easy to see why that happened.

In his short debut season, his curveballs mostly landed below the plate, often in the dirt. This year, they’re in the zone more often, and hitters haven’t bitten. When they do swing, they aren’t missing as often, frequently fouling balls off to stay alive. His four-seam execution also hasn’t been as sharp.

The pitches here are still largely up and away, where they should play well, but there are more inside and over the plate. He’s using it more as well, and as I mentioned, it isn’t such an outlier where he can afford to miss over the plate, especially in two-strike counts. Here’s an example of where that pitch selection and location came back to bite him.

Brice Matthews is up with two runners on base. He swings through a first-pitch changeup, an indicator that he, like many hitters when they come up with a runner on third and less than two outs, is looking for a fastball. Early has the breaking stuff to use for chases, but elects to give him the four-seam fastball. It’s down in the zone where it’s hittable, and Matthews puts in the seats.

He hasn’t taken a step back everywhere, though. His changeup, which evaluators tabbed as his best pitch entering 2025, has improved. It comes in about nine miles per hour below his fastball and shows tremendous depth. Last year, it averaged -3.2” of vertical movement; this year, it’s dropping an additional inch and a half on average. It’s lost a little bit of horizontal, and he hasn’t spotted it on the arm side as frequently against righties, but it might just be a matter of finding a feel for the new shape. Even without pristine locations, the chase rate is way up, and he’s earned more whiffs as well. Here’s a look at one of his best this season.

Expecting Early to repeat his 2025 performance is probably wishful thinking. He made four starts, and his command was close to perfect over his 19 innings. While the bar is high, it’s also a good example of who Early can be. When his fastball is up, his curveball is down, and his changeup is arm-side, he’s going to punch hitters out. Remember, he’s only 24 years old and has plenty of time to grow, as well. He’s consistently put the Red Sox in the position to win games without his best command. As he matures and finds the feel for his pitches, he’ll only get better.