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Sunday brings a full 15-game MLB slate, and with it, plenty of opportunities to find value across the board.
Early-season markets are still adjusting, which means prices can be off if you’re paying attention.
Read on for my MLB picks for April 5.
MLB moneyline picks for April 5
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|
Orioles vs
Pirates |  -122 |
Dodgers vs
Nationals |  -186 |
Marlins vs
Yankees |  -285 |
Padres vs
Red Sox |  +122 |
Cubs vs
Guardians |  +104 |
Brewers vs
Royals |  -122 |
Rays vs
Twins |  +104 |
Blue Jays vs
White Sox |  -177 |
Reds vs
Rangers |  +117 |
Phillies vs
Rockies |  +186 |
Astros vs
Athletics |  -117 |
Mariners vs
Angels |  -170 |
Braves vs
Diamondbacks |  -104 |
Cardinals vs
Tigers |  -104 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 4-4.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for April 5
Orioles vs Pirates: Pirates (-122)
Pirates win probability: 55%
Braxton Ashcraft pitched well in his debut, but the Pirates lost 2-0. However, the outing showed command and should help build confidence.
I’ll back him against Chris Bassitt in this matchup. Expect a sharper effort and better run support overall.
Dodgers vs Nationals: Dodgers (-186)
Dodgers win probability: 65%
Roki Sasaki vs. a back-end starter is a significant talent gap on the mound.
The Dodgers' lineup will chase Foster Griffin early, and they have a good enough bullpen to get the job done.
Marlins vs Yankees: Yankees (-285)
Yankees win probability: 74%
Max Fried is dominant at home, and Chris Paddack has never fully recovered his early-career form after Tommy John.
Miami's small-ball approach is the worst style to bring against a shutdown lefty.
Padres vs Red Sox: Padres (+122)
Padres win probability: 45%
Walker Buehler is a proven veteran arm and is coming off a tough start, but Ranger Suarez is a gas can that the Padres' lineup can hammer for a solid road win.
Expect a bounce-back outing for Buehler and a Padres plus-money victory.
Cubs vs Guardians: Guardians (+104)
Guardians win probability: 49%
Parker Messick shut out the Dodgers in his opening start and gets a Cubs offense that has scored fewer than three runs in three of their last five contests.
The Guardians’ sticks should get the best of Edward Cabrera and his history of command issues.
Brewers vs Royals: Royals (-122)
Royals win probability: 55%
Kyle Harrison is a quality young arm, but Kris Bubic is coming off a two-hit outing against the Twins.
Bobby Witt Jr. hits .313 lifetime at home against lefties, and I expect the Royals to win.
Rays vs Twins: Rays (+104)
Rays win probability: 49%
Nick Martinez has the sharper stuff right now and looked solid in his first outing. Simeon Woods Richardson is steady, but his history against this Rays lineup is sketchy.
Tampa Bay needs a win and gets it on Sunday.
Blue Jays vs White Sox: Blue Jays (-177)
Blue Jays win probability: 64%
Eric Lauer faces Davis Martin, and the gap is clear. Martin profiles as a replacement-level arm, while Toronto’s lineup should create plenty of chances regardless.
The price is steep, but the talent edge heavily favors Toronto.
Reds vs Rangers: Reds (+117)
Reds win probability: 46%
Chase Burns is a legitimate arm, and Elly De La Cruz has been on a tear.
The Reds' offense will inflict enough damage against Jack Leiter, and Burns should hold up his end for a solid road win.
Phillies vs Rockies: Rockies (+186)
Rockies win probability: 35%
Taijuan Walker has been a disaster early in 2026, and Coors is the last place you want to back him.
Tomoyuki Sugano looked sharp in his first start, holding Toronto to two hits, and while he's prone to the longball, so is Walker.
Back Colorado in what shapes up as a high-scoring slugfest.
Astros vs Athletics: Astros (-117)
Astros win probability: 54%
Houston starter Lance McCullers opened the season with a dominant outing, while Jacob Lopez walked five and got lit up in his first start.
The Astros' offense has been clicking at twice the rate of Oakland's. Take Houston to prevail.
Mets vs Giants: Mets (-104)
Mets win probability: 51%
Kodai Senga gets a generous matchup against a struggling Logan Webb.
Webb coughed up nine earned runs and five walks over his last two starts.
The Mets got the lumber going on Friday night, and with Webb hard to trust right now, I'll back the Mets.
Mariners vs Angels: Mariners (-170)
Mariners win probability: 63%
Luis Castillo is a true top-of-rotation arm going up against Angels starter Ryan Johnson.
Johnson got lit up in his first start, and the Mariners offense will likely chase him early.
Seattle has dominated the Halos in recent history and is a good bet to secure another road win.
Braves vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-104)
Diamondbacks win probability: 51%
Brandon Pfaadt is 16-7 at home over the last two seasons, and Arizona beat Detroit despite him struggling in his last outing.
Atlanta will likely go with a bullpen game in this one, so I'll ride with the Diamondbacks at home.
Cardinals vs Tigers: Cardinals (-104)
Cardinals win probability: 51%
Keider Montero steps in for injured starter Justin Verlander.
Kyle Leahy has decent command, and St. Louis gets a favorable matchup against a Tigers bullpen posting a 4.58 xFIP.
Back the road dogs at -100.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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