ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 22: Kodai Senga #34 of the New York Mets walks through the dugout after the Mets defeated the Texas Rangers 6-3 at Globe Life Field on September 22, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Images
At the start of every season, we do a ‘Bold Predictions’ piece here on Amazin’ Avenue. Last year, my bold prediction was a sub-2.50 ERA for Kodai Senga. My thought process, at the time, seemed sound:
With stronger up the middle defense, a potential six-man rotation, and a coaching staff more aligned with the front office, things seem like they may be working in Senga’s favor. Already this spring, Senga’s velocity is back up to the high 90s, and his ghost fork is diving out of the strike zone like it did in ‘23. If he can stay healthy, Senga is poised to have a monster season.
Welp.
Senga’s actual 2026 ERA was nearly three times the ceiling I set for it, finishing the year with a 7.34 mark. To say that everything went wrong for Senga is somewhat underselling just how terrible of a year he had, almost from the very beginning.
After two fine starts, in which he allowed two earned runs apiece over six and five and two-thirds innings, respectively, Senga’s season hit the skids in spectacular fashion. We all know that early season rate stats are never reliable, but let’s keep using ERA as the benchmark. After his second start, his ERA was 3.09. After his third, it was 7.07 and it never went south of that number again all season.
That is especially remarkable because, . But after his last start, his ERA was at a season high 10.08.
Senga spent six weeks or so on the Injured List with both spine inflammation and ulnar nerve irritation. When he came back, things didn’t exactly get better. He made three more starts before being demoted to the bullpen, and gave up thirteen earned runs, five home runs, and ten walks in those 12 and two-third innings.
So what happened? Well, the short answer is that his stuff somewhat disappeared and his walk rate ballooned. He was still getting strikeouts, and at a fairly similar rate, but what was gone was the weak contact that made him such a valuable member of the rotation. When Senga was getting hit this season, he was getting hit hard. He was bottom 5% in the all of baseball in wOBA against and walk rate.
The good news for the Mets was that once he moved into the bullpen, and especially since he was made the de facto closer with Devin Williams on the shelf, his performance not just leveled out, but he showed real skill at the role. He had just two truly bad outings as closer, while racking up eight saves. Simply put, in short bursts, Senga was good.
It is hard to lower your ERA out of the bullpen due to the natural innings limits that exist, but Senga dropped his ERA nearly three runs in his three months out of the bullpen. Once he made the switch to the bullpen, he gave up just nine runs in 30 and a third innings pitched, lowering his ERA from its season high 10.08 after his last start.
If Senga is comfortable with a bullpen role, this appears to be the way that the Mets can salvage the final year of his contract and give the team some more stability from the starting rotation. If not, it’s going to be another rollercoaster of a year for Senga and the Metropolitans.
In my defense, Senga’s ERA once he made the switch to the bullpen was 2.05. So, from a certain point of view, I nailed by bold prediction.
Friday’s postponement of Game 4 of the ALDS between the Rays and Guardians in Cleveland was the first postseason game postponed since Game 4 of the Cubs/Nationals NLDS at Wrigley Field in 2017. More on that below.
MLB handled tickets for the postponed game in an odd fashion. Here’s what they said in a press release about the postponement:
Fans with tickets to the original ALCS Game Four on Friday, October 15th may use those same tickets for ALCS Game Five on Sunday, October 17th at 5:08 p.m. (ET). Gates will open at 2:30 p.m. (ET).
Fans with tickets for the originally scheduled ALCS Game Five on Saturday, October 16th do not need to take any action. That game will now be played as ALCS Game Four. Gates will open at 5:30 p.m. (ET) for the 8:08 p.m. (ET) first pitch.
So if you held a “Home Game 2” ticket for Guardians/Rays Friday, you’re now going to be able to go to “Home Game 3” on Sunday — and now those who thought they were going to Game 5 on Saturday are now going to Game 4.
Before Friday, the most recent postseason postponement was Game 3 of the 2022 World Series between the Astros and Phillies in Philadelphia. That year’s WS schedule was pushed back a day as a result. Here are some other significant postseason postponements over the last few deecades.
Look at the playing dates for the entire 1962 World Series. There’s a four-day gap between Game 5 and Game 6, and even in 1962 it didn’t take that long to get from New York to San Francisco. Three days of rain in the Bay Area pushed Game 6 back, and that was after Game 5 in New York had been postponed by rain there. That meant just two Yankees starters, Ralph Terry and Whitey Ford, threw games 4 through 7. Terry wound up throwing a 1-0 shutout in Game 7 to win the series for the Yankees.
This is, of course, one of the most famous games in baseball history, won by Carlton Fisk with a 12th-inning home run. But rain in Boston had postponed this game three times, giving the teams four days in between Games 5 and 6. Luis Tiant, who started Games 1 and 4, thus came back for Game 6, though he was long gone from the game by the time Fisk won it with his homer.
The Mets, as you know, won Game 6 with a miracle 10th-inning rally. They didn’t get the chance to win the World Series the next day, though, as rain in New York postponed Game 7 for a day. The Red Sox took a 3-0 lead into the bottom of the sixth, but back-to-back three-run innings won the game, and the Series, for the Mets.
Just as Game 3 was about to begin at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, the Bay Area was hit by a major earthquake. Here is ABC-TV’s pregame show. At about 4:35 into this video, you can see the feed simply drop out and be replaced by a still frame, with Al Michaels speaking by phone:
The 1989 World Series was delayed by 10 days, and then the Athletics completed a four-game sweep by defeating the Giants in Games 3 and 4 at Candlestick Park.
This wasn’t a postponement, but rather a game suspended due to torrential rain and wind in Philadelphia. Since the suspended-game rules of the time did not permit for a game to be suspended if it wasn’t tied, the teams played until Melvin Upton (then known as B.J. Upton) scored to tie the game 2-2.
RAYS 5TH: Baldelli reached on an error by Rollins; Jimmy Rollins fought with the rain and gusting wind trying to catch the ball; Bartlett grounded into a double play (second to first) [Baldelli out at second]; Kazmir struck out; 0 R, 0 H, 1 E, 0 LOB. Rays 1, Phillies 2.
RAYS 6TH: Iwamura was called out on strikes; Crawford grounded out (first unassisted); Upton singled to shortstop; Upton stole second; Pena singled to left [Upton scored]; Ruiz allowed a passed ball [Pena to second]; Longoria flied to center; game suspended due to heavy rain and winds at 10:39 PM; resumed at 8:40 on 10/29; the first suspension in World Series history; temperature at the time of the resumption was 44 but it was dry; 1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 1 LOB. Rays 2, Phillies 2.
This led to the rule change providing that every postseason game must go at least nine innings and if any such game is interrupted by weather and cannot be completed on the day it’s started, it will be suspended, no matter what the inning or game situation.
“I thought the 2008 World Series game I participated in was the worst. It just got surpassed,” Maddon said. “This is not baseball weather. The elements were horrific to play baseball in. That is the worst elements I ever participated in in a baseball game. Ever.”
The postponement of NLDS Game 4 between the Cubs and Nationals was the first postseason postponement for the Cubs in the divisional play era.
It was played the next day and the Cubs lost 5-0, with Stephen Strasburg striking out 12. The teams then traveled to Washington for Game 5, a wild contest won by the Cubs 9-8. But the rainout had cost the teams an off day for travel, and then the Cubs had to travel to Los Angeles to begin the NLCS two days later — a trip interrupted by an unscheduled stop in Albuquerque because of a “health issue,” later determined to be José Quintana’s wife falling ill on the flight.
Would the 2017 NLCS have gone differently for the Cubs if not for the rainout and that diverted flight? Obviously, we’ll never know.
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 13: So Taguchi #99 of the Philadelphia Phillies at bat during Game Four of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the 2008 MLB playoffs on October 13, 2008 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In recent years, the Phillies have expressed a desire to sign a player coming to Major League Baseball from Japan. It makes sense considering the many Japanese imports who have succeeded recently. Just last season, Munetaka Murakami provided the White Sox a huge boost, while Kazuma Okamoto was a strong contributor for the Blue Jays.
Munetaka Murakami hit 35 home runs in his first MLB season.
Despite the Phillies’ efforts – most notably, making a strong at pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto – they have been unable to convince any Japanese player to choose Philadelphia as their American baseball city.
The Phillies have made an offer to the top free agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto according to @MattGelb
I’m told the Phillies believe they are in the running along with Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers https://t.co/Ne5ZDgmqpG
They may run into the same problems they have in the past: There is a natural bias by Japanese players towards western teams. There is also a sentiment that because the Phillies don’t have much of a tradition with Japanese players, players are wary of how they would be received.
The Phillies know what they’re up against when trying to sign Japanese talent: no direct flight between Tokyo and Philadelphia, a lack of a legacy in the country.
But they’ve revamped their scouting operation in Japan. Now, can they break through?https://t.co/ZVXvMwCjAj
The Phillies can’t do much to change the location of the city. But as for the lack of tradition… I will try to aid them in their recruiting efforts by highlighting some of the Japanese players who have played for the team in the past.
First up, a member of the 2008 World Series champions: Outfielder So Taguchi
After beginning his baseball career with the Orix Blue Wave of the Japanese Pacific League, in 2002, Taguchi decided to try his luck in America. In 2022, he joined the St. Louis Cardinals. He spent his first couple of years as a bench player, but was given a full-time role from 2004 to 2007 and played acceptably well, including some postseason highlights.
OTD: 10/13/06
So Taguchi begins the 9th inning with a pinch-hit, go-ahead solo home run to put the Cardinals on top in Game 2 pic.twitter.com/AIzfAGO4Y1
In December 2007, the Phillies were looking to put the final touches on a roster which they hoped could contend for a World Series. They signed Taguchi to a one-year deal to serve as a reserve outfielder. During the season, Taguchi was mostly used either as a pinch hitter or a defensive replacement for Pat Burrell in left field.
There were a few highlights along the way, such as a game-winning double against the Mets in July, and a 3-5, 3 RBI effort on the final day of the season.
— Philly Sports By Number (@philly_number) April 11, 2023
While his postseason accomplishments were minimal, after Brad Lidge secured the 27th out of game five of the World Series, Taguchi could be seen on the field, celebrating with his teammates.
The lesson to be learned is this: If you are a Japanese player who wants to experience the joy of winning a World Series, you should do as So Taguchi did: Choose the Phillies!
Mets relief prospect Ryan Lambert enjoyed another successful outing in the Arizona Fall League on Friday.
Lambert shut the door on a commanding seventh victory of the exhibition season for the Surprise Saguaros, cruising his way through a perfect top-half of the ninth. The hard-throwing right-hander struck out the first batter he faced with a 97 mph fastball on the corner of the zone, then needed just five more pitches to get through the rest of the inning.
Lambert now has a total of five punchouts and he’s allowed just one baserunner, while not giving up a run across his first three appearances to open Fall League play. Though it’s still an extremely small sample size, it’s certainly the start the 24-year-old was looking for coming off his forgetful season at the Triple-A level.
After a breakout 2025 minor league campaign Lambert was expected to work his way into the mix as a big-league bullpen arm, however, that did not end up being the case.
He ended up having to miss some time to injury and battled ineffectiveness throughout the year, pitching to an ugly 7.71 ERA and 9.98 BB/9 across 23 Triple-A appearances.
So now instead of building off an opportunity to show if he could help the Mets in the midst of a meaningless season, Lambert enters the year as a bit of a question mark for the organization.
The big right-hander continues to showcase his big-time fastball velocity on the radar gun, but if he can’t consistently keep his stuff in the zone, he'll really limit his success. That's been the case throughout Lambert's minor league career, averaging an impressive 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but also walking a ton (6.7).
Continuing this strong start to fall ball and building some confidence would be huge for Lambert heading into what's shaping up to be a big offseason for him. With the Mets' bullpen still having a handful of openings, perhaps he'll be able to work his way into the mix with a strong spring training showing.
Savannah Bananas players celebrate after defeating the Firefighters during a Banana Ball game at Kauffman Stadium on May 23, 2025, in Kansas City, Missouri. (Emily Curiel/The Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
Power & Light, in fact, never has generated the revenue to meet debt obligations. As the Kansas City Business Journal put it in April, annual “bond gaps have required about $10.5 million a year from the city’s general fund and $199 million total to date.”
But here’s where the Rorschach test comes into play. Or at least a matter of perspective.
Because there’s a compelling case that Power & Light figuratively paid for itself many times over in how it changed the density and vibe of downtown (from around 5,000 residents to 33,000 over 25 years) — and in no small part the very perception of Kansas City.
“I didn’t have a curveball in college,” the Texas A&M product said. “That was something I took into last offseason, and we had a pitch design group. So I was in that to add a fourth pitch to the arsenal, give a different look to righties at least so it’s not just fastball-slider. But I just stuck with it and trusted in our coaches.”
Lamkin would have continued to work on the deuce all summer long, if not for a left shoulder injury that cut his regular season short after May 25. Now the 22-year-old left-hander’s back in the Grand Canyon State in the Arizona Fall League to not only reestablish his health but pick up where he left off with that curve development.
I know a lot of people want Cam’s dad to join the organization, but that’s not happening with the current structure. I do wonder if Cam might be an interesting answer. The White Sox seem to be doing something right with their hitting development, and you’d assume there’s at least some organizational familiarity with Thames from their year together in the organization. I don’t know much about Seitzer’s philosophies, but it might make some sense.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - SEPTEMBER 15: Manager Rocco Baldelli #5 of the Minnesota Twins looks on against the New York Yankees on September 15, 2025 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Hello friends, and welcome to the weekend!
The ALCS resumes today after an unplanned day off (more on that below). Let’s explore all of that and more in today’s batch of links.
MLB Postseason scores…
Game 4 of the ALCS was postponed yesterday due to rain. The Rays and Guardians will now square off during both days this weekend to make up for it.
Another year, another early postseason exit. That's what GM Brian Cashman and the Yankees have to reckon with after the Tampa Bay Rays swept them in the ALDS.
The front office decided to run it back the 2025 team -- yes, that's what they essentially did -- and it left them with the same result: an ALDS ouster. So, where do the Yankees go from here?
Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole aren't getting any younger, and with a weak American League, there are only so many more chances at capturing a World Series before their captain and the veterans age out of the team. Cashman will have to look for ways to get over the hump for the first time since 2009, and that could mean tough decisions regarding the core of the Yankees.
There are key players who will enter free agency and whether the Yankees bring them back or not will change how the 2027 team looks. And while the trade market is always a way to shift the roster makeup, Cashman has rarely used it during the offseason. But with such an influx of starting pitching, it's not out of the realm of possibility that some major league arms like Will Warren, Clarke Schmidt or Ryan Weathers are moved to open up roster spots and fill needs.
There's also the impending lockout, which could reshape how business is done in baseball. Whether there's a cap or not, the new CBA will create some hurdles the Yankees front office will have to manage.
With all that said, here's how the payroll for the Yankees looks for next season and beyond...
SALARY COMMITTED FOR 2027
When the offseason begins, the Yankees will have approximately $244 million committed (pre-tax) to the 2027 season, according to Cot's Contracts. That includes the nine arbitration-eligible players, zero-to-three players and those in the minors under team control.
The above number could change if the Yankees non-tender any of the arbitration-eligible players they trade. Weathers and Luis Gil -- yes, even Gil -- are potential trade pieces, while Fernando Cruz, who is looking to rehab and avoid elbow surgery, could be non-tendered if the team doesn't trust what they see medically.
And then there's the money coming off the books. Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($10.2 M), Trent Grisham ($22 M), Paul Blackburn ($2 M), Paul Goldschmidt ($4 M) and David Bednar ($9 M) are notable free agents.
Goldschmidt has said he wants to keep playing baseball, while Chisholm has voiced his wish to return to the Yankees, although he also said he wants a lucrative, long-term deal.
With youngsters Anthony Volpe, George Lombard Jr. and Spencer Jones up with the big league club, it's unlikely Grisham and Chisholm return. That would give the Yankees more than $30 million to play with this offseason.
WHAT WILL THE ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS MAKE?
The Yankees have nine arbitration-eligible players.
Here is the list of players with their projected 2027 salaries:
Luis Garcia Jr. ($10.25 million)
Clarke Schmidt ($5.575 million)
Anthony Volpe ($5 million)
Jose Caballero ($4.25 million)
Ryan Weathers ($3 million)
Austin Wells ($2.5 million)
Fernando Cruz ($2.45 million)
Luis Gil ($2.3 million)
Heliot Ramos ($2.25 million)
If those numbers hold and the Yankees tender them all contracts, that's approximately $37.5 million added, an increase of about $13 million from what those players made in 2026. The $30 million coming off the books from Chisholm and Grisham alone will take care of the added money, and, again, there could be opportunities to trade some of these arbitration players, so that number isn't in stone just yet.
All the above names except for Weathers, Cruz and Gil are important to the 2027 roster. And while it's likely the Yankees tender all of them, if there's an opportunity to move them, they are prime candidates.
HOW MUCH MONEY IS THERE TO ADD PLAYERS THIS OFFSEASON?
Despite Hal Steinbrenner's wishes, the Yankees continue to exceed $300 million in player salary, and that will likely continue into 2027 -- unless there are major changes in the new CBA.
They need to rebuild their bullpen after the departures of Bednar, Blackburn and a couple of other mid-level relievers like Ryan Yarbrough and Tim Hill, and they still need to round out the bench after Goldschmidt and Amed Rosario hit free agency.
Already at $244 million committed (pre-tax), Cashman will need to get creative with the additions. The highest-ticket item the Yankees should acquire is re-signing Bednar. He made $9 million in 2026, and after one-and-a-half seasons proving he can play in New York, he'll get a pay raise in any contract he receives.
The Yankees are expected to issue a qualifying offer to Bednar, which would be around $23.13 million for one year, so if Bednar accepts it, it would essentially replace Grisham's from 2026.
New York Yankees relief pitcher David Bednar (53) reacts after defeating the Houston Astros 5-4 at Yankee Stadium / Wendell Cruz - Imagn Images
The same could be said for Blackburn, who revived his career as a high-leverage reliever this past season. He made just $2.1 million in 2026, and he won't cost as much as Bednar, but he should also seek a pay raise. The rest of the bullpen holes could be filled with starters transitioning to the 'pen, like Schmidt and Gil, minor league arms like Carlos Lagrange, or journeyman arms that the Yankees system transforms into a valuable reliever.
The tricky part will be the right-handed hitting catcher the team needs. Free agents like Ryan Jeffers will cost the team a pretty penny, so they'll have to determine whether they want to spend their offseason bucks. Perhaps they could backload the contract to stay under a certain threshold as they wait for contracts like Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Rodon's to expire.
Or they can look for a cheaper option like Tyler Stephenson. This will be the aspect to watch this offseason as the team looks for more consistent offense in 2027 and beyond.
Those are the two major needs this offseason as the starting lineup and rotation are mostly set. On the lineup front, the Yankees won't have too much wiggle room to make a big splash, so they'll need to rely on Volpe and Caballero being used as a platoon with Ryan McMahon at third base. Unless the Yankees can convince the Rockies for Hunter Goodman or the Nationals for CJ Abrams, they'll need to rely on the young/inexpensive options they have.
WHAT ABOUT EXTENSIONS FOR UNDER-CONTROL PLAYERS?
Looking at the current Yankees roster, there aren't many players who could be good candidates for an extension.
Ben Rice, who looks to be a superstar, won't have his first year of arbitration until 2028 so there isn't a rush. While names like Ramos and Caballero don't feel like players Cashman would look to extend before he has to.
Schmidt will be in his final year of arbitration in 2027, but health concerns could muddy that possibility, while Garcia, a left-handed first baseman, doesn't necessarily have a spot on the Yankees past this upcoming year, with Rice likely to man the position in 2028 and beyond.
That leaves Volpe and Wells.
Volpe has one more year of arbitration after this one, but based on how his 2026 went, the Yankees will likely wait before exploring an extension. But he'd be prime candidate if he takes the second base job and keeps it in 2027.
Wells is the likeliest candidate for an extension. He has two more years of arbitration after 2027, and has done wonders handling one of the best rotations in baseball. Sure, his offense has left a lot to be desired, but if he can capture whatever got into his bat in the last month of the regular season and the playoffs, the Yankees would surely want to keep their backstop for the long term.
THE PAYROLL SITUATION IN 2028 AND BEYOND
Here are the Yankees' projected 40-man roster salary obligations from 2028 to 2030, via Cot's:
2028: $192.6 million
2029: $112.7 million
2030: $89.4 million
The biggest difference between 2027 and 2028 is Stanton's contract. The Yankees have a club option to retain the slugger, but it's tough to imagine the organization exercising it after the last few injury-prone seasons. Even if the Yankees DFA Stanton for the 2027 season, that money will be off the books the following year.
McMahon, Garcia and Schmidt will all be free agents in 2028 as well, freeing up approximately $32 million.
Rodon and Cole's contracts expire after 2028, giving the Yankees even more flexibility for the 2029 season, especially if the young starters they currently have continue to pitch well.
If the Yankees can continue to develop their young players, they could be set up nicely without having to rely on high-priced free agents.
San Diego, California - October 06: Ty France #25 of the San Diego Padres celebrates after tagging out Christian Yelich #22 of the Milwaukee Brewers to win game three of the National League Division Series at Petco Park on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Ty France solidified a position of need for the San Diego Padres in the 2026 season. The right-handed slugger joined the team in the offseason on a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. At the time, there were questions of whether he would even make the team. France competed with Gavin Sheets and Nick Castellanos for regular playing time at first base but eventually made the team and took control of the position and added another Rawlings Gold Glove Award nomination to his resume.
France played at San Diego State University and was drafted by the Padres in 2015. He made his debut with the club in 2019 but eventually was sent to the Seattle Mariners in a trade along with outfielder Taylor Trammell, reliever Andres Munoz and catcher Luis Torrens in exchange for catcher Austin Nola and relievers Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams in 2020. It was a move that never seemed to make sense to the Friar Faithful.
France spent four years with the Mariners then bounced from Seattle to the Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays from 2024 to 2026. France returned to San Diego and took full advantage of his return. The right-handed slugger had 440 at-bats over 133 games and finished with 21 homers and 72 RBI. France ended the 2026 season with a slash line of .295/.363/.502. He solidified the cleanup spot in the Padres lineup and provided protection for Manny Machado in the No. 3 hole.
There is no question that France had a successful season at plate, but what he did in the field may have had an even greater impact. France provided Gold Glove caliber defense, which is supported by his nomination for the National League Gold Glove Award at the position. France allowed the infielders to play and throw free knowing if they short-hopped a throw or were offline to either side or up or down he was going to make a play and likely record the out.
France will be a free agent at the end of the MLB season, but he should be a top target for the Padres. The veteran has made no secret that he enjoys playing in and for the Padres. He stabilizes a position of need and arguably one of the most valuable positions on the field considering most plays end with him catching the ball. The Friar Faithful have seen the inconsistency and the struggles at first base over recent seasons, France provides an inhouse opportunity solidify the position. There are questions as to whether he can replicate his offensive production in future seasons, but if he is successful and comfortable in San Diego, he should be given the chance to prove he can.
BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 22: Owner David Rubenstein of the Baltimore Orioles looks on prior to the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Saturday, August 22, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning Birdland,
The ALCS is expected to continue tonight in Cleveland after a rainout on Friday. MLB doesn’t do doubleheaders in the postseason, so this reschedule has condensed the calendar a bit. No longer is there an off-day set for Sunday, which could mean that these two teams would play on three straight days from Saturday through Monday, if a Game 6 is needed. That change could force the two managers to play their bullpen cards a bit different than if they had the day off for relievers to recover.
Of course, the Orioles are just spectators to all of this while their manager’s former club is on the brink of a World Series appearance. They have a few things to figure out before they can get back to the point where playoff bullpen management is their top priority.
One of those things might be whether or not their owner actually understands what his role is here.
David Rubenstein just finished his third season as the club’s “control person.” The honeymoon period between him and the Orioles fan base is entirely over as the team has disappointed for 2.5 of the three years that he has been in the mix. But that didn’t stop him from recently writing a book about the experience, which people have started to thumb through during this quiet period before the offseason really gets going. And it has led him to talk a lot more about the experience publicly.
“A lot of my friends were buying teams, and I realized they’re making money. They’re making more money than I’m making in private equity,” he said. “I thought I should look at it as a financial thing, but ultimately I bought the Orioles for a philanthropic purpose.
Comments like this are not ideal from MLB’s perspective right now. The league and MLBPA are in the midst of a labor dispute in which many of the owners are crying poor, saying the smaller market teams cannot afford to compete with the clubs in New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. To hear Rubenstein tell it, these teams are actually doing just fine.
I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked!
This upcoming World Series matchup won’t do much to help either. Milwaukee is arguably the smallest market in MLB, dwarfed by nearby Chicago, but they have been the best team in the sport all year and just took down the mighty Dodgers. Cleveland and Tampa are also in the bottom half of the league. One of them is going to he the AL champs. The Rays took down the Yankees to get here while the Guardians beat out the White Sox, who may not carry the same cachet as the Cubs in that city, but they are still able to draw from one of the country’s major metropolises.
That all is secondary to me. If you didn’t already know these billionaires weren’t just in this for the love of the game, then you aren’t paying attention. Instead, what I found interesting are the many other quotes that make Rubenstein look like both an out-of-touch rich guy, and maybe even an alien from another planet. For example:
“I couldn’t figure out why it is that people who are fans are so obsessed with the success of their local team,” he said. “They’re not going to make any more money. They’re not going to go to the Super Bowl and get a trophy out of it.
“I guess it’s because people take pride in being successful, and if something that’s connected to their local community is successful, they feel better about themselves. That’s why people love to watch sports, I guess.”
Dave, dude, did you just find out what sports are the week before buying the team? You didn’t understand why people were obsessed with their local team? Well, of course, it is so that predatory wealthy people like you can worm your way into something you don’t understand, and make everything more expensive and complicated. All so you can make even more money that “isn’t going to make a difference in [the owner’s] lifestyle”
Or maybe just keep some thoughts inside your head, and share them with your rich pals somewhere that’s not, I don’t know, a broadly broadcast forum that everyone can hear.
Again, most people understand that these billionaire owners are not doing this for entirely benevolent reasons. They want to make (more) money, and sports is an increasingly popular way to do that. But it would be nice to have an owner that at least gets what they are signing up for at a base level, and maybe even shares some level of passion that the fans have. It doesn’t seem like the Orioles have that.
Links
Holliday looking to build off positives from 2026 during ’27 season | Orioles.com Jackson Holliday is not turning into the franchise cornerstone that many hoped/expected him to be. That doesn’t mean he is without value, but it also shouldn’t mean the Orioles just keep pinning their hopes on him being a viable everyday second baseman. They should be open-minded to other solutions if they are serious about winning in 2027.
This, that and the other | Roch Kubatko Roch discusses some of the contract decisions coming for the Orioles. Ryan Helsley gets to decide his own fate, which likely puts him back in Baltimore next year. Zach Eflin doesn’t. He will hit free agency rather than having his $25 million option picked up. Ryan Mountcastle ($7.5 million) and Luis Robert Jr. ($20 million) are tougher calls, but the smart money is probably on their options being declined too. Dietrich Enns probablys hits the market too after a tough season spend mostly in Triple-A.
Hanser Alberto turns 34 today. The contact-oriented infielder emerged out of nowhere to have an impressive 3.4-bWAR season in 2019 with the Orioles, was a bit less productive in 2020, his final season in Baltimore.
Ken Dixon is 60 years old. All four seasons he spent in MLB came in Baltimore from 1984-87. Over 482.1 total innings he had a 4.66 ERA and was worth 2.4 bWAR.
Jim Hutto is 79 today. He played in four games for the 1975 Orioles.
The late Kelly Paris (b. 1957, d. 2019) was born on this day. He appeared in 10 games with the Orioles as a reserve infielder between 1985 and ‘86.
This day in O’s history
1971 – The Pirates prevail 2-1 over the Orioles in Game 7 of the World Series. Robert Clemente hits a home run off Mike Cuellar as the crowning achievement of his Series MVP performance.
1979 – Willie Stargell hits a two-run homer to lift the Pirates to a 4-1 win in Game 7 of the World Series over our O’s.
While the 2026 Yankees season has come to a frustratingly early end, it’s hard to blame much of that on the starting pitching. By several measures, the Yankees had one of the best rotations in all of baseball this year, and they have the favorite for the AL Cy Young Award in Cam Schlittler.
As part of our season in review, let’s take a look back at some of the rotation’s best efforts of the year. To do that, we’re going to rank them according to the Game Score statistic. Game Score takes a variety of stats from an outing and combines them to try and determine how dominant a pitcher’s outing. Fifty is generally about average, and if a pitcher nears 100, they’re probably putting up an all-time great outing. While we didn’t get any no-hitters or perfect games this year, the Yankees’ rotation still had its fair share of excellent outings, let’s look back at the best of them.
This is a post of the top five, but there was a three-way tie for fifth, so it’ll actually include two bonus games too.
One could hope that Schlittler’s Game 2 start in the ALDS against the Rays harkened back to a regular season outing he had against Tampa Bay. Facing the Rays on July 6th, Schlittler allowed one run on four hits, while striking out eight in eight innings. None of the hits he allowed were more than a single, it’s just that one of them was to the speedy Chandler Simpson, which led to him scoring on another single.
Sneaking onto the list as part of that three-way tie for fifth is, surprise, another Schlittler start. This is the only game on the list that the Yankees ended up losing, but you can hardly blame that on the Yankees’ Cy Young candidate. In his seven frames, he held Atlanta to one run on three hits while striking out 11. Thankfully the Yankees scored a run in the eighth and the loss came in extra innings, so Schlittler didn’t get dinged with a loss for that gem.
While it wasn’t as statistically dominant as his start against the Red Sox in the 2025 AL Wild Card Series, Schlittler’s 2026 outing was still plenty good enough to crack this list. He only went 6.1 innings this time around, but held the Red Sox to just two hits, while striking out 10. The Yankees’ lineup poured it on late on route to a win and an eventual dominant sweep of Boston. If only the rest of the postseason went that well…
Someone else has finally made an appearance on the list. Injuries limited Fried to just 112.2 innings this season, but statistically he was still very good. This performance against the Red Sox was part of that. Having been given a 3-0 lead to work with after the top of the first, Fried proceeded to go eight scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and two walks, striking out nine Boston batters.
Normal service has resumed as Schlittler matched Fried to tie for third place. However, this was another game where he ended up with a no decision thanks to the offense. In eight innings, Schlittler held the Angels to one run on two hits, striking out nine. The only issue was that one of those hits was a Vaughn Grissom homer that tied the game at one in the seventh inning. The Yankees eventually broke through with five runs in the top of the 10th inning to seal the win, although they deprived their ace of the victory.
As it turned out, there was also a tie for first and, yes, Schlittler was involved. In July, he held a potentially very powerful Phillies’ lineup to no runs in 7.1 innings, surrendering just three hits all game. He struck out 12 batters, including Trea Turner and Bryce Harper twice each.
Tying Schlittler for the top spot is a Rodón start that had people wondering what order the playoff rotation should go in. Against the Rays in late September, Rodón threw eight shutout frames, allowing just three hits in arguably his best ever start as a Yankee. He also reached a milestone in getting to the 1500 strikeout mark during the outing.
The start — and his stretch run in general — was good enough that it led to people suggesting that Rodón should get the ball for one of the AL Wild Card Series games. In the end, they went with Schlittler, Fried, and Gerrit Cole had their been a Game 3. As it worked out, Rodón didn’t end up pitching at all in the playoffs. You can debate whether that should’ve been the case, but it’s hard to blame any of the starting pitchers for their ALDS losses.
Those are the best starts of the year according to Game Score, but which ones were the most memorably good to you?
CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 16: A general view of a tarp covering the field prior to game four of the American League Championship Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on October 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Meet the Mets
David Stearns’ current team may not be in the World Series, but Greg Joyce analyzed how he helped build the foundation for the Brewers’ run.
Steve Cohen’s influence could be the X-Factor in the offseason chase for Tarik Skubal.
Should the Mets give up on Ronny Mauricio? Logan VanDine believes it may be too early to give up on him.
Around the National League East
Dave Dombrowski put Trea Turner on blast, challenging him to either become a better shortstop or find a new position.
Around Major League Baseball
Game 4 of the American League Championship Series was postponed due to inclement weather. Game 4 will now be played tonight at 8pm ET. Game 5 will now take place on Sunday, October 18 at 5pm ET. Games 6 and 7, if necessary, will remain scheduled for Monday and Tuesday at Tropicana Field.
Jayson Stark said the Brewers’ sweep of the Dodgers is one for the books, because the gamers beat the Hall of Famers.
In addition to having gamers, Mike Petriello argued that the Brewers also have some potential Hall of Famers.
Milwaukee has already punched a ticket to the Fall Classic, but Zach Sweet wondered who they should want as their opponent.
Buster Olney recapped how the Dodgers’ bid for a three-peat went up in flames in this year’s NLCS.
Ken Rosenthal commented on the uncertain reality facing the Dodgers, who spent big to build their MLB power.
Los Angeles is left to ponder their core as cracks emerged during the NLCS sweep.
Andy McCullough isn’t ready to call this the end of the Dodgers’ dynasty, but admits that Los Angeles has some hard questions to address during the offseason.
Bryan Hoch looked at five burning questions surrounding the Yankees entering the offseason.
Orioles’ owner David Rubinstein admitted that MLB owners are making a ton of money, saying they made more than he was making in private equity.
Martín Maldonado is joining the Tigers’ coaching staff.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 25: Alec Burleson #41 of the St. Louis Cardinals is congratulated by Leo Bernal #13 after hitting a two run homer in the seventh inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on September 25, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The last two weeks I have gone position by position comparing the Cardinals roster and prospect pipeline to the Brewers for both hitters and pitchers. My assessment was that the current and future position-player talent on both teams is relatively close and that the gap on the pitching side is quite substantial. As I looked at both teams, I considered the talent at both the major and minor league levels. Even accounting for the Cardinals’ exceptionally deep farm system, I still think the Brewers have more talent in their organization. Point being, there is still a lot of ground for the Cardinals to make up. They aren’t going to make up this ground without taking risks, so today I am going to outline the approach I would like to see this offseason and heading into 2027.
Side note: As a fan, I would certainly be in favor of adding $80+ million to the payroll and wiping out much of the talent gap, but alas, that does not seem to be in the cards. Since the future payroll level seems to be quite ambiguous, I am going to focus on trades and extensions.
Starting Rotation
Current state: The Brewers hold a huge current advantage with Misiorowski and Henderson at the top of their rotation. The Cardinals have a clearly superior pitching pipeline.
Offseason action: Trade the depth and aggressively promote prospects
To match the Brewers’ rotation, the Cardinals need to find two top-of-the-rotation arms. Quinn Mathews is the only starting pitcher prospect likely to start the year in St. Louis, but there is a bevy of pitchers knocking on the door. Players who will need 40-man roster spots by the end of the year included Jurrangelo Cijntje, Brandon Clarke, Daniel Eagen, Mason Molina, and Braden Davis. Cooper Hjerpe and Tekoah Roby are already on the 40-man and could both start games, albeit with inning restrictions. Liam Doyle and Tanner Franklin do not have 40-man roster pressure, but both could be ready at some point during the season. If none of these nine prospects are ready next season, you might as well start the rebuild over anyway, so get them up as soon as they are ready.
Pallante and McGreevy are the perfect trade candidates. They have solid value with two and five years of team control, respectively, but neither is terribly likely to turn into a No. 2 starter. They give the team a higher floor, but they do not do much for the ceiling. Is turning over the rotation to the prospects a guaranteed path to catching the Brewers? Of course not. But hoarding fourth and fifth starters is not either.
Bullpen
Current state: Big advantage Brewers with their three-headed bullpen monster.
Offseason action: Take fliers on high-upside guys
If the Cardinals aren’t putting chips on the table for 2027, bullpen improvements will need to come internally or through under-the-radar acquisitions. The Cardinals already started this by claiming Chase Hampton off waivers from the Nationals. This is the exact type of move you like to see. Hampton has battled injuries the last three seasons, but he has flashed a plus fastball and multiple plus breaking balls at various times. There might be a 40-man roster crunch a year from now, but the Cardinals have a ton of roster flexibility to bring in lottery-ticket arms now.
If you can find a couple of interesting pieces outside the organization and get a few mini breakouts internally (looking at you, Gastelum and Santana), the Cardinals could make up a ton of ground as early as next season.
Catcher
Current state: The Brewers have William Contreras for another year, if they don’t trade him, but cannot match the Cardinals’ depth.
Offseason action: Clear the logjam
I haven’t had a problem with how the Cardinals have managed the catcher situation to date, but it is time to clear the decks. You have to bet on players at some point, and Leo Bernal looks like a good bet. Jimmy Crooks hit for a 160 wRC+ as a 24-year-old in Triple-A. Unless another team values him in a trade as an impact prospect, he needs an extended run as well.
Ivan Herrera is awesome and I will miss him, but he is expendable for the right return. The Cardinals have huge holes in center field and at third base. Herrera would be one of the best bats on the market, if made available, and should fetch a huge return.
Even with Herrera out of the picture, the Cardinals are in a much stronger position than the Brewers at catcher looking ahead.
First Base
Current state: Alec Burleson gives the Cardinals the upper hand against a (potentially) Jake Bauers-less Brewers.
Offseason action: Extend Burleson
Let’s lock in Burleson to a long-term extension. This will solidify first base as a positional advantage for the Cardinals for the foreseeable future. Burleson is growing into a leadership role and seems to be loved by the front office and coaching staff. Even if he never learns how to hit lefties, he should be a middle-of-the-order bat against righties for years to come.
Second Base
Current state: Both teams have studs in place, but Wetherholt is locked in for five years more than Turang.
Offseason action: Do nothing
This is self-explanatory. With JJ extended for eight seasons, the Brewers will have a tough time matching the Cardinals’ second-base production long-term.
Third Base
Current state: The Brewers have solid major league options in place and prospects on the way while the Cardinals are still searching.
Offseason action: Acquire a major-league-ready prospect
I am quite bullish on Blaze Jordan and wouldn’t mind giving him an extended run at third base. But if he ends up hitting, he could also help out at DH and first base. I would like to see the Cardinals add some upside from outside the organization by building a trade package around Michael McGreevy and/or Andre Pallante. The top of this market would be someone like Jefferson Rojas, the top-100 infield prospect the Mets acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline. Sure, Jesus Baez might be the answer, but having multiple starting-caliber players would be a great problem to have.
Shortstop
Current state: Cardinals slight edge now, but the Brewers have a superprospect coming.
Offseason action: Extend Winn
Let’s not overthink this. If Winn is open to it, lock in a five- or six-year contract. More control would only make Winn more valuable as a potential trade chip if a player from the system emerges as a better option. The most exciting shortstop prospects are in the low minors (Sebastian Dos Santos, Miguel Hernandez, Yairo Padilla, and Rocco Maniscalco), so getting Winn locked in long-term gives the Cardinals some certainty.
The Brewers have the game’s top prospect in Jesus Made on the way, but it is not a foregone conclusion he will be able to match Winn’s overall production.
Left Field
Current state: Brewers have a star in Chourio and the Cardinals hope to have one in Joshua Baez.
Offseason action: Do nothing
If the Cardinals were in a win-now mode, you would want more depth behind Joshua Baez. But for where they are at, he is the perfect player to pencil into the lineup every day and see what you have.
Center Field
Current state: The Brewers got a great season from Mitchell, but may be vulnerable going forward. The Cardinals should still be searching.
Offseason action: Acquire the center fielder of the future
Apparently the Cardinals are fine starting the season with Nathan Church in center field. This is where I would like to see the Cardinals get aggressive about prioritizing finding an impact talent. Would a package built around Ivan Herrera be enough to bring back one of the blocked Dodgers outfield prospects, Mike Sirota or Eduardo Quintero? The Dodgers have a pretty good DH already, so that scenario would likely require a three-team trade. The Braves look like a more logical fit for Herrera and have one of this year’s breakout prospects in Eric Hartman. Cleveland has a top-100 center fielder in Aaron Walton, who climbed to Double-A in his first professional season.
There really aren’t many upper-minors center field prospects to pick from across baseball, so this route could take some creativity, but if Bloom can turn the catcher surplus into a chance at an impact outfielder, that would be a huge win for the organization.
Right Field
Current state: Jordan Walker outperformed the only black hole in Milwaukee’s lineup.
Offseason action: Do nothing
I do not think this one needs much explanation either. The 2026 Cardinals’ arc mirrored Walker’s last season, and that could very well be the case in 2027. Walker has obviously earned plenty of runway. The general consensus seems to be that a long-term extension does not make sense for either side at this point in time. I tend to agree with that, but if the numbers work out, I would love to see the Cardinals explore this.
Designated Hitter
Current state: Cardinals with the advantage based on Yelich’s contract situation.
Offseason action: Do nothing
In the scenario I have outlined, DH is the one area that potentially becomes problematic with Ivan Herrera traded away. Still, I think you have to roll the dice and try to mix and match. Bernal might be a good enough hitter to warrant DHing on some of his off days from catching. Blaze Jordan could be a good option, especially against lefties. This could also be an excellent way to ease in Rainiel Rodriguez when he makes his debut. I also think Deniel Ortiz is the most underrated prospect in the system. His defense is a question mark, but I think he is going to hit at the major league level and could be in play as early as midseason.
Conclusion
There you have it. Extend Burleson and Winn. Trade McGreevy, Pallante, and Herrera to shore up the remaining holes on the position-player side. Take a few fliers on high-upside relief arms, and buckle up for wave two of the youth movement. Best-case scenario: the young pitchers outperform expectations and push the team to contention ahead of schedule. Worst-case scenario: you get some of the learning curve out of the way and get even more answers on what the future core looks like. Catching the Brewers will require patience and a bit of luck, but some aggression and risk-taking will be required as well.
THE DODGERS LOSE! THE DODGERS LOSE! THEEEEEE DODGERS LOSE! (I know that was John Sterling’s phrase, but I respectfully enjoyed — I mean, borrowed it)
And Cleveland is still up two games to one after Friday’s game was rained out. Game 4 tonight. Things get better and better! (except it doesn’t involve the Cubs)
It’s been a confusing time. After spending season after season getting stabbed in the heart by the Brewers with every great hit and great play, it has been entertaining to sit back, watch and enjoy the team that Milwaukee has built. Sigh. The Cubs’ front office has had the same relaxing opportunity to watch the organization this month and maybe there will be a change in the acquisition and the development process of the Cubs’ players to whatever the Brewers have been able to accomplish. It is getting old feeling like, “Wow, the Cubs have A good pitching prospect,” or “Hey, at least the Cubs have A COUPLE of good hitting prospects.” Nothing against Pedro Ramirez and Matt Shaw, but wouldn’t it be nice to have of a couple of potentially great prospects that are occasionally and successfully battling for a starting spot, than going, “Well, we think XXXXXX might be the better of the two”, and be some level of wrong every time?
Heh. I went to look for Friday’s articles and there was one that heavily covered what I mentioned above, plus added some tidbits in a better way than I did.
Honestly, if I had read these two articles, including this, I wouldn’t have written all that up above! Here’s an excerpt:
“On the whole, using various Statcast measures, you can see how the Cubs rate out as having an almost average collection of pitching prospects, and below average hitting.“
I appreciate your reading.
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The two articles I linked above:
Tony Andracki (CHGO.com): 3 lessons Cubs can learn from MLB playoffs. “As the Brewers continue to make waves in the MLB playoffs, the Cubs can take some lessons from around the league this fall.”
Randy Holt (North Side Baseball): Javier Assad Remains the Cubs’ Ultimate Swiss Army Knife. “Whenever Javier Assad wasn’t on the Cubs’ big league pitching staff in 2026, everybody should have been asking “Where’s Javier Assad?”.”
Sam Caulder (North Side Baseball): Matthew “Nominal Cubs Ace” Boyd’s 2026 Season Was A Tale of Two Halves. “Matthew Boyd finished the season with respectable numbers, but his 2026 campaign was more complicated than the surface stats suggest. Here’s what went right, what went wrong, and what it could mean for his future in Chicago.”
Brett Taylor (North Side Baseball): Good to See Alex Bregman Continuing to Heal, Talking About Hitting. “Come for the look at Bregman’s vastly improved face, stay for his thoughts on how important a pitcher’s vertical attack angle (i.e., how low they can release from) and extension are.”
Jason Ross (North Side Baseball): Could Kaima Taira Be the Next NPB Star in Chicago? “Kaima Taima will probably be posted this winter. Should the Cubs consider the reigning ERA champion of Japan in their search for pitching help?”
I’ve been following this guy and his hitting demonstration online. His presentation is kind of captivating. He has hit against multiple “HOFers”, RHP and LHP, from different slots. He played small college ball, so it’s not like he’s the next big thing — he just shows how unhittable these guys were. The Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson presentations have been my favorites so far. The funny thing is how the comments blow up because when he’s talking to the camera, his back is to the machine, which is on, and it looks like he’s going to get nailed by half of the pitches. But not yet — at least he hasn’t posted it. 😀
Lizzie Douglas (June 3, 1897 – August 6, 1973), better known as Memphis Minnie, was a blues guitarist, vocalist, and songwriter whose recording career lasted for over three decades. She recorded around 200 songs, some of the best known being “When the Levee Breaks“, “Me and My Chauffeur Blues“, “Bumble Bee”, and “Nothing in Rambling”. When she was seven years old, she and her family moved to Walls, Mississippi, south of Memphis, Tennessee. The following year, she received her first guitar as a Christmas present. She learned to play the banjo by the age of 10 and the guitar by 11, when she started playing at parties.
In 1910, at the age of 13, she ran away from home to live on Beale Street in Memphis. She played on street corners for most of her teenaged years, occasionally returning to her family’s farm when she ran out of money. Her sidewalk performances led to a tour of the South with the Ringling Brothers Circus from 1916 to 1920. Performers from the Mississippi Delta and other regions combined a mixture of dance rhythms, melodic phrasing, and storytelling of Black rural culture, all of which are elements that are audible in Minnie’s early guitar and vocal work. By adapting and reshaping this style, she became one of the performers who helped define the emerging country blues for later generations. She then went back to Beale Street, with its thriving blues scene, and made her living by playing guitar and singing, supplementing her income with prostitution.
This needs multiple angles!I got “Ghostbusters” vibes!
Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.
CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 15: A general view of Progressive Field during Game Three of the American League Championship Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, October 15, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
There is, unfortunately, no baseball to be had today (Saturday). But the 2026 MLB Playoffs will continue on Sunday with Game 5 of the American League Championship series between the visiting Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians.
As usual, I am writing this in the past, which means I do not yet know the outcome of Game 4. And neither team has announced a starting pitcher as of this time. But either way, the game will start at 5:00 p.m. PT on Sunday, airing on TBS/HBO Max, with national radio coverage available on ESPN Radio.
I think we’ve all weighed in on who we want to win this series, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that’s who we want to win this game. Personally, I hope this series goes a full seven games so the winner is tired going into the World Series, because it’s a rare year that my rooting interests are for the National League team. But after sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers, I think the Milwaukee Brewers have more than earned our support.
But that’s just my opinion. Who are you rooting for in Game 5?
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 15: Aaron Ashby #26 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates after recording the final out of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game four of the National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium on October 15, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Aaron Ashby did not have his best season in 2026. He pitched a ton: he tied for sixth in the league in appearances, and only Houston’s AJ Blubaugh surpassed his 87 bullpen innings this season (Ashby added another 2 1/3 innings in one appearance as an opener). Ashby’s 89 1/3 total innings are his most in a season since 2022, when he was primarily a starter; he’d only thrown 95 innings in the big leagues total since a shoulder injury cost him the entire 2023 season. That much action — arguably overuse — sapped Ashby’s effectiveness a little bit from 2025, when he was one of the best relievers in baseball:
Ashby was evolving, though, and underlying metrics suggest he wasn’t actually a lesser pitcher in 2026 despite more walks and a slight downturn in results. His “Stuff+” metrics, which attempt to put a number on how “nasty” a pitcher is, mostly held in 2026; his sinker and slider, two of the best pitches in the majors in 2025, were a little worse, but his curveball and changeup were both a little better. His Statcast profile in 2026 shows just as much red as it did in 2025; in both seasons, Ashby ranked among the elite in ground ball percentage and barrel percentage. In 2026, Ashby was in at least the 88th percentile in all of expected batting average, expected ERA, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage — all higher than last season. His average fastball velocity was up a tick, from 97.4 to 97.7 mph.
So, while Ashby’s ERA was a run higher and an increase in walks created occasional problems, Ashby’s stuff was just as good as it was the previous season, in about 40% more innings. Watching Ashby was not always a comfortable experience this season — his command would come and go, and his 10.7% walk rate was higher than in any previous season — but his pitches were essentially as hard to hit as ever.
Maybe it should not have been a surprise, then, what we have seen from Ashby in the postseason.
Ashby pitched in three of four games against the Padres in the NLDS. He went multiple innings in two of those three outings, and picked up a win in the Game 4 series clincher when he went three scoreless, hitless innings to bridge the game from starter Robert Gasser to the big guns at the back of the bullpen, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill. In those three games in total, he pitched 5 2/3 innings, allowed two hits and two walks, didn’t allow a run, and struck out five.
In the sweep of the Dodgers, Ashby also pitched in three of four games. In a tight Game 1, Ashby pitched the seventh and eighth in a one-run game and allowed only a walk. He picked up saves in Games 2 and 4, and his Game 4 performance — he pitched the final three innings, and twice, with the tying run on third with one out, got out of the jam — will go down in Brewers lore. His full numbers against the Dodgers: 6 2/3 innings, two hits, one walk, six strikeouts.
Through two series, Ashby has pitched in six of Milwaukee’s eight games. He has totaled 12 1/3 innings; he has a win, two saves, he’s allowed four hits, three walks, and no runs, and he’s struck out 11.
This run is getting into historic territory. There’s a whole other series to go, and who knows what will happen, but: there have been only 26 instances in the history of the postseason where a pitcher went at least 12 innings with an ERA below 1.00. If you want to drop the ERA down to zero, where Ashby’s currently sits, there are only six others:
Ken Dayley, who pitched 12 shutout innings in nine appearances for the 1985 Cardinals
Mariano Rivera, twice, in the Yankees’ World Series runs in 1998 and 1999
Another Yankee, Hall of Famer Goose Gossage, in 1981, who had six saves in 14 1/3 innings
Cody Allen, during Cleveland’s run which ended in their Game 7 loss to the Cubs in 2016, had 10 scoreless appearances that totaled 13 2/3 innings and six saves
Finally, a surprising name: John Rocker, who didn’t allow an earned run in 13 innings in the 1999 postseason (but who did allow two unearned runs)
Ashby is already at or near the innings pitched totals of all of these guys. He’s in relief ace territory at this point, and there’s a real argument that he should’ve won NLCS MVP; the cinematic nature of Jake Bauers’ exploits in the series probably clinched it for him, but Ashby was certainly just as deserving.
Ashby’s work in this postseason so far reminds me of two other players from the not-so-distant past. The first was another well-regarded prospect who didn’t work out as a starter but who became, briefly, a shutdown reliever and a major figure of the postseason: Andrew Miller. By the time he was 26, Miller had been a top 10 prospect; he’d already thrown almost 300 big-league innings in a variety of roles, and he’d been traded twice — once as the linchpin of one of the biggest trades of the 2000s, when the Tigers traded him and others for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Miller struggled as a starter but finally found success in his seventh season when he became a full-time reliever; over the next five years, Miller was as good as any relief pitcher in baseball and played a major role on several postseason teams. The 2016 campaign was the most magical, though: in 19 1/3 innings across 10 appearances for Cleveland, Miller allowed three runs (a 1.40 ERA), struck out 30 batters, and walked only five. For his entire postseason career, Miller allowed just four runs in 38 2/3 innings, giving him a lifetime 0.93 postseason ERA.
The other player I’m reminded of is Wade Davis, yet another big-time prospect who failed as a starter but who finally clicked as a full-time reliever. Davis was drafted by the Rays, but it didn’t work out there; he was traded to Kansas City in the James Shields trade, but had a disastrous 2013 season as a starter. In 2014, the Royals put him in the bullpen… and over the next four seasons, Davis had a 1.45 ERA in almost 250 innings. In the 2014 postseason, Davis allowed one earned run and struck out 20 in 14 1/3 innings across 12 appearances as a setup man, including 10 innings of a 0.00 ERA across the ALCS and World Series. The following season, when Kansas City won it all, Davis did not allow a run in eight appearances; he struck out 18 and walked three in 10 2/3 innings, the Royals won every game he pitched in, and he earned four saves and a win.
From a storyline standpoint, I remember Davis and Miller dominating the postseason discussion for those three years in the mid-2010s. The idea that the role of starting pitchers in the postseason was diminishing was still quite new at the time, so it was a big deal that you had these guys coming in and mowing everybody down. They just felt like the most dangerous weapons in their respective playoff runs. Miller came up a game short (and indeed, two of the three runs that Miller gave up in that 2016 postseason run came in the Cubs’ Game 7 triumph), but Davis is forever etched into the history of Kansas City baseball.
Ashby might already be there for the Brewers; even if things don’t go particularly as planned in the World Series, few will forget his heroics in the first two rounds. But for a guy who, like Miller and Davis, didn’t work out as a starter, and for a guy who had not had a good postseason career before this season (in 10 appearances across three seasons, he had a 7.71 ERA in 9 1/3 innings and as many walks as strikeouts), Ashby has written himself into the Milwaukee record books. If he can keep it going in the World Series, he just might join a truly elite list of postseason relief runs, the likes of which have only been seen a handful of times.
