Placing all 30 MLB teams in free agency tiers, from biggest spenders to 'Broke Boys'

The "Baseball Bar-B-Cast” is here to help guide you through this winter of MLB free agency, which began with a minor splash from the Seattle Mariners, who re-signed first baseman Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million deal.

On top of that, a record four players across the league agreed to qualifying offers of one year, $22.025 million. While the biggest fish in the free agency sea are still there for the taking, only a small number of teams are realistically in play for prized players like Kyle Tucker or Alex Bregman. Simply put, not many teams are willing or able to afford the mega contracts those players will demand.

That’s why, in the latest episode of “Baseball Bar-B-Cast,” Yahoo Sports’ Jordan Shusterman and Jake Mintz divided all 30 teams into nine different tiers based on how they plan to approach free agency, from the biggest spenders (Funny Money) to the most frugal franchises (Broke Boys).

Tier 1: Funny Money 

Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets

These two teams are willing and able to spend with essentially no limit, luxury tax be damned. For the Dodgers, the strategy has already paid off massively with back-to-back World Series titles. Their enormous payroll has sparked conversations about the spending gap in baseball and could lead to heated collective bargaining negotiations and a potential lockout in 2027.

"I'm interested in how evil do they get, right?” Mintz said of the Dodgers. “They have now won two in a row. The lockout is approaching. We could be operating under a new financial system in, you know, a year's time. Does that impact the way the Dodgers approach this winter where they're like, 'This is our last chance to really go nut nut, and maybe Kyle Tucker's contract is grandfathered in, let's get him on our roster.'"

TORONTO, ON - NOVEMBER 01:   Shohei Ohtani #17 and manager Dave Roberts #30 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrate after winning Game Seven of the 2025 World Series presented by Capital One between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Saturday, November 1, 2025 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Is a trilogy next for Dodgers manager Dave Roberts and superstar Shohei Ohtani? (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Daniel Shirey via Getty Images

The Mets, on the other hand, have spent big without much to show for it so far.

"I'm most interested in which of the two guys do they bring back: [Pete] Alonso and [Edwin] Díaz?” Mintz asked. “And beyond that, how do they seek to supplement the roster? They have some money coming off the books, but if they try and keep Alonso and Díaz, it's less money than you think.”

Tier 2: Rich Men North of Richmond

New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays

While this group isn’t afraid to open up the checkbook, they’re a tier behind the Dodgers and Mets. For now.

“Let's not pretend like the Yankees are not still capable of spending more than everybody but the Dodgers and Mets, and maybe even outspend the Dodgers and Mets in some circumstances,” Shusterman said.

If the Yankees want to sign a big name in free agency, they might have to compete with a Blue Jays team that came within one win of a World Series title.

“Do they act like a behemoth?” Mintz asked of Toronto.

The Phillies, meanwhile, may have to spend all their money just to keep the band together.

“Because of the state of the roster and kind of the direction of their franchise, [the Phillies] arrive at an interesting point here where [Kyle] Schwarber is, of course, the top priority. [J.T.] Realmuto as well,” Shusterman said. “Is there another move? Is there a move on top of that other than just keeping this group together? Is it a Kyle Tucker?”

Tier 3: Have Employed or Do Employ Rafael Devers

San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox

By executing a massive midseason trade in June to acquire Rafael Devers from the Red Sox, the Giants showed they’re willing to make aggressive moves to get better. Yet San Francisco missed the playoffs for the fourth straight season anyway, while Boston surged to the postseason.

“The Red Sox, from a roster standpoint and a free agency standpoint, I think is more compelling because the guys they need to try and keep,” Shusterman said. “And the Giants, it's just like, what are you going to do to move this forward?”

Tier 4: You Have Spent But Where Are You?

San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels

This collection of clubs have handed out huge commitments to big-time players, with varying results, including San Diego’s Fernando Tatis, Texas’ Corey Seager, several extensions to Braves players or even the Angels’ deal with Anthony Rendon. But for multiple reasons, Shusterman said he’s confused and intrigued about where these teams are at.

The team in this tier that feels like it should be a notch higher? The Cubs.

“This team should be a real behemoth with the amount of money they bring in,” Mintz said. “And until they start acting that way, they will be here grouped together with the Padres, Astros, Braves, Rangers, Angels.”

Tier 5: Why Don’t You Just Meet Me in the Middle

Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies

As we mentioned, the Mariners already signed Naylor to a sizable deal. But if they don’t make any other big moves beyond that this offseason, they’re still firmly in baseball’s middle class. Despite these teams slotting into roughly the same spending tier, there’s clearly a wide range of on-field performance here.

“These clubs, five of them actually are in relatively similar points where they're trying to contend and one team is the Rockies,” Mintz said. “But we feel like the Rockies had to be grouped here because if [newly hired president of baseball operations] Paul DePodesta went out and signed Dylan Cease, I would be both surprised and I would be like, ‘that's the Rockies.’”

Tier 6: Too Smart To Spend

Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians

They draft well, develop well and know how to get the most out of inexpensive rosters. But how do they get over the hump to succeed in the playoffs?

“They have earned both the benefit of the doubt and also kind of the collective frustration of, ‘Hey, you're doing a lot of these other things really well, what if you just spent some more money on, like, really good baseball players?’” Shusterman said.

Tier 7: The Reds

Cincinnati Reds

They were good enough to make the playoffs, but it ended quickly with a lopsided series sweep at the hands of the Dodgers.

“They at least have more good things going on that you can be like, ‘Maybe you are just a couple players away.’ I think that's maybe the most complimentary way I can phrase the Reds’ situation,” Shusterman said. “But also, maybe they don't want to spend any money because they're the Reds and that also happens often.”

Tier 8: Wrong Place, Wrong Time

Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals

These are teams that have spent real money at various points in their histories, but that won’t be the case this winter as they all embrace some degree of rebuilding.

“There's not going to be a whole lot of sexy stuff at the big league level this year,” Mintz said of the trio of teams. “There'll probably be some trades of veteran players away for prospects and as for that reason, anything beyond a one-year deal would surprise me.”

Tier 9: Broke Boys

Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics

Could one of these teams break out of the bottom tier? Maybe the A’s signing Luis Severino to a franchise-record deal of $67 million for three years last season is a sign of things to come. Or maybe it’s an anomaly.

“Until they prove us wrong the way that the A's sort of did last year with Severino, to some degree, we have to expect them to not spend money. … history tells us that they are not going to spend real money in free agency. So if they, if they want to change that, we'll talk about it,” Shusterman.


White Sox acquire left-hander Chris Murphy in a trade with the Red Sox

CHICAGO — The Chicago White Sox acquired left-hander Chris Murphy in a trade with the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday.

Murphy went 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA in 23 relief appearances over three stints with the Red Sox this year. He also made five starts and 13 relief appearances in the minors, going 1-0 with a 2.93 ERA.

The 27-year-old Murphy was selected by Boston in the sixth round of the 2019 amateur draft. He missed the 2024 season after he had Tommy John surgery.

Boston acquired minor league catcher Ronny Hernández in the deal. The 21-year-old Hernández hit .251 with four homers and 34 RBIs in 82 games with Class A Kannapolis this year.

The Red Sox also traded right-hander Alex Hoppe to Seattle and left-hander Brennan Bernardino to Colorado. They got minor league catcher Luke Heyman from the Mariners and outfielder Braiden Ward from the Rockies.

The 33-year-old Bernardino went 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 55 appearances with the Red Sox this past season.

Yankees add top prospects Spencer Jones, Chase Hampton, Elmer Rodriguez to 40-man roster

The Yankees protected a trio of top prospects from the Rule 5 Draft on Tuesday, officially adding outfielder Spencer Jones and right-handers Chase Hampton and Elmer Rodríguez to the 40-man roster.

All major league clubs had until Tuesday's 6 p.m. ET deadline to set their rosters, and Jones was among five prospects inside MLB Pipeline's Top 100 rankings list who would've been exposed to the draft process and eligible to be poached.

New York's decisions were no-brainers, as Jones (No. 4), Hampton (No. 8), and Rodríguez (No. 3) are consensus Top 10 prospects within the organization. Their big league debuts are projected to arrive between the 2026 and 2027 seasons, according to MLB Pipeline.

As one of the best minor league hitters in 2025, Jones slashed .274/.362/.571 (403 at-bats) with 35 home runs, 23 doubles, 80 RBI, 102 runs, and 29 stolen bases in 116 combined games with Double-A Somerset and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The 25-year-old also placed second among all qualified minor leaguers in home runs and fifth in slugging.

Hampton, who underwent Tommy John surgery in February and missed the entire 2025 campaign, has produced a 3.45 ERA with 161 strikeouts over 125.1 innings (27 starts) across three different levels, reaching as high as Double-A in 2023 and 2024. The 24-year-old was a sixth-round pick in 2022.

Rodríguez, named the Yankees' top minor league player by Baseball America this season, produced a sharp 2.58 ERA with 176 strikeouts across 27 appearances (26 starts) between Triple-A, Double-A, and High-A Hudson Valley. The 22-year-old's strikeouts mark ranked second among all minor league pitchers.

Analyzing Yankees' payroll situation for 2026 MLB season after Trent Grisham accepted qualifying offer

The Yankees finally made it to the World Series in 2024 after a 15-year absence and then they were ousted -- convincingly -- by the Blue Jays in the ALDS a year later.

It was a disappointing end for a team that had high hopes despite the loss of Juan Soto. The additions of Cody Bellinger, Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt,and others helped the Yanks get out to a hot start before their usual summer swoon cost them the AL East. Even though the Yankees ended the 2025 regular season on a heater, and bounced the rival Red Sox in the Wild Card round, they weren't able to get past the eventual AL champions.

So, how can New York finally get over the hump? That's a question principal owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have to answer, and it won't be easy. 

Although the starting rotation is set -- once the injured arms return -- the Yankees need to rebuild the back end of the bullpen and the lineup needs some tweaks to surround Aaron Judge with quality bats. 

Two moves have already been made, one by Cashman and the other by Trent Grisham. The Yankees' first signing this offseason was bringing back Ryan Yarbrough on a one-year deal, while Grisham accepted his qualifying offer.

As the offseason chugs along, here's a look at the team's payroll situation for the upcoming season and beyond...

SALARY COMMITTED FOR 2026

The last two seasons, the Yankees' payroll eclipsed the top luxury tax (competitive balance tax) and they will be close to doing so again in 2026.

The first luxury tax threshold is set for $244 million this upcoming season, so it's hard to imagine a world where the Yankees will not exceed the top threshold (set for $304 million in 2026) again, despite how ownership may feel.

After Grisham's qualifying offer, the Yankees have approximately $190.25 million committed for 2026, coming from seven contracts: Judge ($40 million), Gerrit Cole ($36 million),Fried ($27.25 million), Carlos Rodón ($27 million), Giancarlo Stanton ($22 million), Grisham ($22 million) and Ryan McMahon ($16 million).

Sep 26, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton (27) watches his two run home run against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Yankee Stadium
Sep 26, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton (27) watches his two run home run against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Yankee Stadium / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Then there's the dead money.

Aaron Hicks and his $10 million will be off the books this season (after a $1 million buyout) and give the Yanks more flexibility. Unfortunately, it's offset by the contract of DJ LeMahieu. The Yankees released the utility man midseason, but he will still be owed $15 million in 2026. LeMahieu's contract was destined to be bad, but it was compounded by how New York tried to utilize the former batting champion in 2025, when his skills were clearly diminished.

The team eventually made the right decision to release him, but he'll still be owed money this coming season. Luckily, it's just for one season. That pushes the committed payroll to $183.25 million.

Aside from Hicks' contract, here are the Yankees' free agents and what they earned in 2025 after Grisham and Yarbrough's return:

  • Cody Bellinger ($27.5 million)
  • Paul Goldschmidt ($12.5 million)
  • Devin Williams ($8.6 million)
  • Luke Weaver ($2.5 million)
  • Amed Rosario ($688,200)
  • Austin Slater ($573,900)
  • Paul Blackburn ($159,400)

With Hicks' $10 million gone, that brings the total to around $61 million off the books. That's a nice chunk of change, but there are serious decisions to be made about which players the Yanks should think about bringing back. Bellinger was arguably the team's second-best hitter this season and brought elite defense.

Cashman said at the GM Meetings this offseason that the possibility of Grisham accepting the qualifying offer wouldn't change their pursuit of Bellinger, but we'll see if that is true, now that it has happened. 

The potential losses of Williams and Weaver put the bullpen in a tough spot, but Yarbrough gives the Yankees flexibility to have a longman out of the bullpen while also having a potential starter to fill in spots left open by injured starters Cole and Rodón. 

The Yankees' bench is also in need of some additions. Rosario was a great right-handed bat that gave manager Aaron Boone some flexibility and should be a player the organization considers bringing back.

The Yankees had two players with options, and they accepted one and declined the other. Jonathan Loaisiga ($5 million) will not return under that contract, while Tim Hill ($3 million) will.

Sep 3, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13) runs to first base on a single during the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park.
Sep 3, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13) runs to first base on a single during the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

WHAT WILL THE ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE AND 0-TO-3 PLAYERS MAKE?

The Yankees have 14 players who are eligible for arbitration. Those players, along with their expected 2026 salary via Cot's Baseball Contracts, are:

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($10.25 million)
  • David Bednar ($8.5 million)
  • Camilo Doval ($6 million)
  • Clarke Schmidt ($5.25 million)
  • Anthony Volpe ($3.525 million)
  • Mark Leiter Jr. ($2.75 million)
  • Jose Caballero ($2.325 million)
  • Luis Gil ($1.9 million)
  • Fernando Cruz ($1.2 million)
  • Ian Hamilton ($1.1 million)
  • Jake Bird ($1 million)
  • Oswaldo Cabrera ($1 million)
  • Jake Cousins ($841,050)
  • Scott Effross ($800,000)

The combined salary of the arbitration players is approximately $46.45 million, and that's if the Yanks don't non-tender certain players. And out of this list of 14(!), there are a few candidates who may not get offered arbitration -- they come out of the bullpen.

Leiter has been mercurial since arriving at the deadline in 2024, and this is his final arbitration-eligible season. Hamilton and Bird finished 2025 in the minors due to poor performance, but both have two more years of arbitration, so the Yankees may want to keep them around. The same goes for Cousins -- who underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-2025 and will likely be out for 2026 -- while Effross has one more year of team control after 2026 and wasn't effective when he returned from injury in the middle of the season.

Adding in all the arbitration players, the Yankees' payroll in 2026 would be at $229.7 million.

This list doesn't include players who are not eligible for arbitration and will make the league minimum ($780,000). Those players include Austin Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Ben Rice, Will Warren and Cam Schlittler.

 Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman talks with the media before the game between the Yankees and the Washington Nationals at Yankee Stadium.
Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman talks with the media before the game between the Yankees and the Washington Nationals at Yankee Stadium. / Vincent Carchietta - USA TODAY Sports

HOW MUCH MONEY IS THERE TO ADD PLAYERS THIS OFFSEASON?

With committed salaries and estimated arbitration salaries and raises, the Yankees currently have approximately $271.4 million on the books for their 40-man roster in 2026, already going over the first tax threshold, and threatening the top threshold. 

It's unlikely the Yankees remain below $300 million as ownership would like, but it'll be interesting to see how Cashman approaches the offseason with the recent additions. 

The Yankees still need to add to their outfield with Bellinger gone. While the Yanks have made it clear they want to bring back Bellinger, they won't be the only team looking for the former NL MVP's services. 

Kyle Tucker is now a free agent and should be a target for the Yankees, who can use a consistent bat to go alongside Judge. Going after Tucker would be a longer-term commitment than one the Yanks would give to Bellinger. It'll likely come down to money and how much Steinbrenner is willing to spend. However, it's very likely that Grisham's QO will limit the money the Yankees could offer Tucker in 2026, so we'll see what happens on that front.

Although the Yankees' starting rotation is pretty much set once Cole and Rodon return, opportunities to add are possible. The Yankees could want to bring in a stop-gap arm to go alongside Fried, Gil, Warren, and Schlittler. There's also the trade market the Yankees could explore. Tarik Skubal is a name the hot stove has thrown out there, and he would fit in a rotation that is already one of the best in the majors.

And then there's the bullpen. It's unlikely that both Weaver and Williams will be back, but re-signing Weaver -- who will likely be cheaper -- and then adding arms to fill out the rest of the bullpen, like with Yarbrough and bringing back Hill, could make sense.

The Yankees also need to add to their bench. Luckily, Cabrera will return to be Boone's Swiss-Army Knife alongside Caballero. However, a right-handed hitting first baseman option to platoon with Rice may be needed this offseason. 

And what about Volpe? Will the Yankees stay patient with their former prospect, or try to look outside the organization? Bo Bichette is a free agent, but it's highly unlikely the Yankees will spend the big money to acquire him.

Will the Yankees go over the $304 million top threshold? With what they need, it looks likely. 

WHAT ABOUT EXTENSIONS FOR UNDER-CONTROL PLAYERS?

In previous years, you could have listed names like Volpe or Wells, but after subpar 2025 seasons -- and with so many years of arbitration still left -- the Yankees will likely let their play dictate whether an extension is in the cards.

There is one player who could be receiving an extension, and that's Chisholm. The talented infielder is in the final year of arbitration and will be a free agent after the 2026 season. The organization clearly likes Chisholm for his athleticism, versatility, power, and locker room presence. He made his second career All-Star Game this season and became just the third player in Yankees history to record a 30-30 season.

There's a world where the Yanks extend Chisholm (entering his age-28 season), buying out his final year of arbitration and keeping him in pinstripes for the foreseeable future.

New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13) scores on an hits an RBI single from New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells (28) (not pictured) during the eighth inning against the Boston Red Sox during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium.
New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13) scores on an hits an RBI single from New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells (28) (not pictured) during the eighth inning against the Boston Red Sox during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

THE PAYROLL SITUATION IN 2027 AND BEYOND

Here are the Yankees' projected 40-man roster salary obligations from 2027 to 2030, via Cot's

2027: $166.33 million
2028: $125.33 million
2029: $71.5 million
2030: $71.5 million

After 2027, it gets interesting. 

Stanton has a club option that the Yankees will most likely not exercise after that year, freeing up $15 million. McMahon will also be a free agent, adding another $16 million to the Yankees' coffers. However, by then, Chisholm and Bednar will be free agents, unless they are extended. There will be big holes to fill -- as per usual with this team -- so that money will need to be used to shore up the infield and the closer's role.

Looking past 2028, only Judge and Fried have guaranteed contracts -- Cole and Rodon are free agents after 2028 -- so it'll be interesting to see where Cashman puts the money.

The Yankees do have young arms who are major league ready, like Gil, Warren, and Schlittler, who could eventually replace Cole and Rodon for much cheaper. Meanwhile, prospects like Carlos Lagrange, Elmer Rodríguez and Chase Hampton are close to the majors. The Yankees' pipeline of pitchers is rich and its future is seemingly bright. 

The same might not be said about the Yankees' infield situation. Outside of George Lombard Jr., who is close to the majors and could realistically usurp Volpe sooner rather than later, there isn't much developed. The same can kind of be said about the outfield. 

This season will be big for Dominguez, as it'll show the Yankees whether he can be an everyday outfielder for them. 

There's also Spencer Jones, who skyrocketed up to Triple-A this past season and could be an option in the outfield in 2026. But outside of Judge, there's a lot of unknowns in the outfield, which won't change in the near future, even with Grisham returning next season.

So while the Yanks would love to stay below the top tax threshold, it's not realistic for the next few seasons. And it won't be realistic unless these prospects start to develop and prove they can perform at the big league level. 

Until then, expect more big contracts from the Bronx, and that's OK. The Yankees, despite the guaranteed bucks, can work in that realm and remain flexible.

Trent Grisham accepts Yankees' qualifying offer, returns on one-year deal

Trent Grisham is returning to the Bronx.

After the Yankees extended the qualifying offer to the outfielder, the 28-year-old accepted the $22.025 million deal for the 2026 season on Tuesday. 

It was an interesting decision for Grisham. The veteran outfielder has been a solid player in his MLB career, but broke out in 2025 with the Yankees. His 34 homers this season were twice as many as his previous career high (2022 with the Padres) and his 74 RBI were 12 more than his previous high in 2021. It wasn't just his homers and RBI. Grisham set career marks in slugging (.464), hits (116), walks (82) and OPS (.811).

Many believed that Grisham would parlay that performance into a more lucrative deal, but he's choosing to stay with the Yankees.

Now, how does this affect the Yankees' offseason? GM Brian Cashman said that at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas earlier this month that he was "comfortable" extending the qualifying offer to Grisham and paying him the $22 million for one season, but that doesn't preclude him from trying to bring back Cody Bellinger -- who opted out of his Yankees deal after the 2025 season -- or filling the rest of the team's outfield.

"We’re comfortable [extending the qualifying offer to Grisham]. This is a very thin outfield market. If he turns it down, that means the market is flush with teams that have the need," Cashman said at the time. "He had a hell of a year for us, was one of the big reasons we had the level of success we did, and we’d be happy if he accepted and came back."

Grisham's return takes some of the pressure off Cashman to fill out his roster. Aaron Judge is the only everyday outfielder he can trust, but now he can pair the AL MVP with Grisham for 2026. 

As for the other outfielder, Cashman will look to bring back Bellinger, but there are also internal options available (Jasson Dominguez/Spencer Jones).

Mets releasing right-hander Frankie Montas

The Mets are moving on from right-hander Frankie Montas.

According to SNY MLB Insider Andy Martino, the Mets are releasing Montas after one season with the club.

The move allows them to add outfield prospect Nick Morabito to the 40-man roster, thus protecting him from the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Teams have until Tuesday at 6 p.m. to protect players from the Rule 5 draft, which will take place on Dec. 10. 

The veteran Montas, who exercised his $17 million option for the 2026 season, is expected to miss the entire season following elbow surgery.

Montas’ one-year tenure in Queens proved to be disastrous. After signing a two-year, $34 million contract early last offseason, Montas’ season got off to a delayed start following a lat strain at the start of spring training. He finally made his debut in late June, but was largely ineffective when he was able to pitch, posting a 6.28 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in nine appearances, including two out of the bullpen.

Morabito, a second-round pick of the Mets in 2022, spent the entire 2025 season with Double-A Binghamton, posting a .733 OPS with six home runs and 59 RBI. He was also excellent in the Arizona Fall League, slashing .362/.450/.464 with 16 stolen bases in 17 games. 

The No. 13 overall prospect in the Mets’ system, Morabito profiles as a center fielder at the major league level. 

Pete Alonso buzz, Edwin Diaz at 50/50, and a new top 30 prospects list | The Mets Pod

On the latest episode of The Mets Pod presented by Tri-State Cadillac, Connor Rogers and Joe DeMayo keep talking Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, and also dive into a new Mets Top 30 Prospects list.

First up, the guys look at the deal that Josh Naylor signed in Seattle to stay with the Mariners, and discuss whether or not that contract truly affects the free agent market for Alonso.

Then, Connor and Joe react to comments from Diaz about the odds for his Mets return being "50/50."

Later, the guys get into Joe’s new prospects list, and open the Mailbag to take on questions about Ketel Marte, Alex Bregman, Tatsuya Imai, Nate Lavender, and the potential of David Stearns hiring a GM.

Be sure to subscribe to The Mets Pod at Apple PodcastsSpotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Mets' Brandon Nimmo can 'be had' in a trade this offseason: report

There’s no doubting that the Mets are looking to shake up their roster this offseason, with president of baseball operations David Stearns saying the club is “going to have to be open-minded on our position player grouping so that we can improve our run prevention.”

And while most fans and media members have pointed to the names involved in the Mets’ surplus of infielders when it comes to potential trades – players like Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña, Jeff McNeil, and BrettBaty – perhaps a core member of the outfielder could be on the block as well. 

While previewing what should be a highly entertaining MLB offseason, ESPN’s Jeff Passan mentioned Brandon Nimmo, along with McNeil, as Mets who "can also be had" in a trade. 

After the Mets’ season came to an end, SNY MLB Insider Andy Martino also brought up the possibility of the Mets exploring the trade market for stars like Nimmo and Francisco Lindor.

As Passan points out, Nimmo has a full no-trade clause as part of the eight-year, $162 million contract he signed after the 2022 season, and he is still owed $20.5 million per season through 2030. 

Nimmo had another consistent season in 2025, slashing .262/.324/.436 with 25 homers, 92 RBI and 81 runs scored. His average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard-hit percentage (50.2 percent) both ranked in the 88th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. 

His advanced defensive numbers tell a different story, though, as both his range (42nd percentile) and his arm strength (48th percentile) rank him below league average.

The left-handed-hitting Nimmo has seen his power numbers on the rise over the course of the past few years as well, hitting at least 23 big flies in each of the last three seasons, including his career-best of 25 this past year.

While trading Nimmo would certainly come as a bit of a surprise, it could perhaps open up a corner outfield spot for free agents like Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker.

Giants reportedly decide new pitching coach hire after J.P. Martinez exit

Giants reportedly decide new pitching coach hire after J.P. Martinez exit originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

New Giants manager Tony Vitello’s coaching staff is coming together, with San Francisco reportedly deciding on its new pitching coach.

The Giants are hiring Justin Meccage to replace J.P. Martinez in the role, FanSided’s Robert Murray reported Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the situation. Meccage most recently spent last season with the Milwaukee Brewers organization as the Triple-A Nashville Sounds pitching coach.

Martinez had hoped to stay with the Giants, per NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic, but he ended up taking a job as the bullpen coach for the Atlanta Braves after five total seasons with San Francisco and one as the team’s pitching coach.

“With nothing being a guarantee [in San Francisco] for J.P., I think he took the bird in hand,” Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey told reporters last week at the annual General Managers Meetings in Las Vegas. “We were still going through the process with him. We hadn’t told him that he was not going to be returning. I’m a J.P. fan and had a good talk with him when he took the [Braves] job. I told him I think he’s going to be successful and maybe we’ll see him down the road.”

Now, Meccage will join first-time MLB manager Vitello as a first-time big league pitching coach himself. The 45-year-old joined the Pittsburgh Pirates organization in 2011 as a minor league coach before being promoted to minor league pitching coordinator in 2017. He was named Pirates assistant pitching coach from 2018-2019, then became the bullpen coach in Pittsburgh in 2020 until the organization let him go after the 2024 season.

Meccage takes over a Giants staff featuring perennial Cy Young Award contender Logan Webb and two other locked-in starters, Robbie Ray and Landen Roupp. The rest is up in the air between MLB free agency and others within the organization like Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, Trevor McDonald and Hayden Birdsong.

San Francisco also reportedly is set to hire Toronto Blue Jays assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense to replace Pat Burrell as the team’s hitting coach, The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon reported last week, citing sources, and former San Diego Padres manager Jayce Tingler is joining Vitello’s staff in a role yet to be determined.

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Kyle Hendricks, who helped Chicago Cubs win 2016 World Series, is retiring

CHICAGO — Kyle Hendricks, the right-hander who helped the Chicago Cubs win the 2016 World Series and end a 108-year championship drought, is retiring, the team announced.

The 35-year-old went 105-91 with a 3.79 ERA over 11 seasons with the Cubs and one with the Los Angeles Angels. He was an All-Star in 2016, going 16-8 with a major league-best 2.13 ERA. He pitched 4 1/3 shutout innings as the Cubs lost World Series Game 3 to Cleveland 1-0 and 4 2/3 innings in Chicago’s 8-7, 10-inning win in Game 7.

“He was one of the best all-time Cubs pitchers,” Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts said in a statement. “We would not have won the World Series without his incredible 2016 season where he won the major league ERA title and started Game 7 of the World Series. The Professor was always calm, cool and collected on the mound but his great performances excited millions of Cubs fans. From his outstanding playoff starts in 2016 to his memorable final appearance at Wrigley Field in 2024, he gave our fans sweet emotions.”

Hendricks attended Dartmouth and was nicknamed “The Professor” because of his college background and reliance on hitting spots with a changeup and sinker in an era dominated by hard throwers.

The Cubs acquired Hendricks from Texas for Ryan Dempster at the 2012 trade deadline. He made his major league debut two years later and went 97-81 with a 3.68 ERA in 270 starts and six relief appearances for Chicago with 2014-24.

He signed a one-year, $2.5 million deal with the Angels last November and was 8-10 with a 4.76 ERA in 31 starts, including a loss to the Cubs at home in August.

Dodgers need an outfielder. Cody Bellinger is a free agent. Could a reunion be possible?

New York Yankees Cody Bellinger talks to reporters at Yankee Stadium in New York, Monday, Oct. 6, 2025. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Cody Bellinger is coming off a 29-homer season with the New York Yankees and is a free agent. (Seth Wenig / Associated Press)

The Dodgers need an outfielder. Cody Bellinger is available.

So, eight years removed from his Rookie of the Year arrival, six years since his 2019 MVP campaign, and three years after an unceremonious end to his Dodgers tenure, could the team and its once-beloved homegrown slugger actually reunite this winter?

It’s not impossible, with the Dodgers believed to have Bellinger on their radar as they evaluate their options in free agency.

In an offseason of wide possibilities, but thus far tempered expectations from the Dodgers’ front office, Bellinger represents something of a wild card in the team’s potential winter plans.

Read more:Why Dodgers are already thinking about endurance test that awaits in 2026 three-peat bid

He is not the top outfielder on this year’s market, which is headlined by former Chicago Cubs slugger Kyle Tucker and the $400 million-plus bidding war he is expected to trigger.

But, for a team like the Dodgers, Bellinger could be a better (and more familiar) fit, providing the kind of positional versatility and financial flexibility someone like Tucker wouldn’t.

Granted, the seriousness of the Dodgers’ interest in Bellinger, which was first reported by ESPN, remains unclear. But the mere possibility will make it one of the more intriguing early subplots of the winter, representing one potentially splashier option for the club to consider in pursuit of 2026 roster upgrades.

To this point of the offseason, of course, the Dodgers have signaled a reluctance to add more lucrative, long-term, free-agent contracts to their steadily aging core. It’s shown up in their pursuit of relievers, with their preference seemingly being a shorter-term deal after being burned by big bullpen spending last year. It has also influenced the way they’ve viewed the outfield market, cooling summer-long expectations that they would be leading contenders in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes.

After all, the Dodgers have two starting outfielders currently on their roster in Teoscar Hernández (who is entering the second of his three-year, $66 million deal) and Andy Pages (who is coming off a 27-homer campaign in his second MLB season). They have plenty of depth options at the position, from Alex Call to Ryan Ward to the versatility provided by utility players Tommy Edman and Hyeseong Kim (and maybe even backup catcher Dalton Rushing, who could experiment in the outfield again in 2026).

Los Angeles Dodgers' Cody Bellinger bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Cody Bellinger was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2017 and the NL MVP in 2019, but struggled in his last few seasons with the Dodgers. (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

They also, importantly, have a promising wave of outfield prospects expected to reach the majors in the next 2-3 years, a group headlined by Josue De Paula (the top prospect in their farm system); Eduardo Quintero (their 2025 minor-league hitter of the year); Zyhir Hope, Mike Sirota, James Tibbs III and Zach Ehrhard (promising talents acquired in trades over the last two years); and Charles Davalan and Kendall George (recent first-round draft picks).

The team would still like to add another outfielder, likely of the left-handed-hitting variety, to the mix in 2026. It is hopeful of finding an improved replacement for Michael Conforto, after his woeful performance on a one-year, $17 million deal last season.

At the same time, though, the Dodgers want to preserve their longer-term flexibility at the position — making their odds of giving someone like Tucker the 10-year contract he is expected to receive appear dubious at best.

Bellinger, however, provides a different free-agent proposition.

He is a couple of years older than Tucker, set to turn 31 next season, but is also likely to receive a contract of roughly half the length and much less guaranteed money; pegged by most projections to be in the 5-6 year and $150-$175 million range (though he could reasonably surpass those figures if his market materializes well).

Crucially, Bellinger also offers positional flexibility. At present, he can play all three outfield spots, and remains a plus-defender in the corners. Down the line, he could eventually shift to first base, making him (for a team like the Dodgers) a potential future successor to Freddie Freeman.

Another key factor: Bellinger is a much different player than he was when the Dodgers declined to tender him a contract at the end of the 2022 season.

Back then, Bellinger was coming off two straight years of subpar performance in the wake of a shoulder surgery following the 2020 World Series. Between 2021 and 2022, he hit .193, struck out more than 27% of the time, and had an OPS+ of 66 (an advanced metric in which 100 is considered league average).

The last three years, on the other hand, have seen the former MVP winner stage a mid-career revival. While playing for the Chicago Cubs (who signed Bellinger ahead of the 2023 season) and New York Yankees (who traded for him last offseason), he hit .281, struck out just 15% of the time, and had an OPS+ of 125. Last season, he also hit 29 home runs, his most since collecting 47 in his 2019 MVP season.

Granted, Bellinger did benefit from the hitter-friendly environment at Yankee Stadium, where he had 18 of his long balls last year. He also does not hit the ball as routinely hard as in his peak years with the Dodgers. Yet, he has improved his approach, honed more consistent swing mechanics, and balanced out his platoon splits, batting .353 against left-handed pitching in 2025.

Those strides served as a reminder of Bellinger’s tantalizing talent, as well as a sign of his growing maturation as he enters his 10th year in the majors.

The question now: Whether it will all be enough for the Dodgers to make a legitimate run at bringing him back.

Read more:Shohei Ohtani wins fourth MVP award, joining Barry Bonds as only player with more than three

The nature of free agency, of course, means Bellinger is still likely to land elsewhere this winter. He is expected to field wide interest on the open market, starting with the incumbent Yankees (especially if their other free-agent outfielder, Trent Grisham, turns down a qualifying offer). The Dodgers, meanwhile, remain better positioned to explore the trade market for an outfield addition, possessing the kind of highly-rated farm system that could make them a factor for everyone from Steven Kwan to Brandon Donovan to Jarren Duran.

If Bellinger were to attract his own bidding war, the Dodgers would likely be reluctant to overpay (at least in their view) for his services.

But for now, the possibility of a reunion does at least seemingly exist — thanks to Bellinger’s versatile fit, recent resurgence and lingering familiarity with the franchise.

Years removed from his breakout, then flame-out, during his first tenure with the Dodgers, he could wind up in their winter plans again this offseason.

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Mets have interest in signing Devin Williams: report

As the Mets reshape their bullpen this offseason, they have interest in signing Devin Williams, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Passan notes that the Mets are "mulling the opportunity" to sign both Williams and Edwin Diaz, who is expected to reject the team's one-year qualifying offer ahead of Tuesday's deadline.

In addition to the Mets, reports have linked Williams to the Dodgers and Blue Jays. 

Williams, 31, had a down year for the Yankees in 2025 after being acquired from the Brewers in an offseason trade.

Over 62.0 innings spanning 67 appearances, Williams -- who bounced in and out of the closer's role due to his inconsistencies -- had a 4.79 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while striking out 90 batters.

But there are reasons to believe Williams' relatively poor season was an aberration.

For one, his 2.68 FIP was in line with his career FIP of 2.45 -- suggesting he was unusually unlucky on balls that were put in play.

Meanwhile, his walk rate (3.6 per nine) was down, his home run rate (0.7 per nine) was around his career average, his ability to miss bats was among the best in baseball, and his famous "airbender" changeup again graded out as one of the best pitches in the sport. 

The Mets have lots of work to do this offseason when it comes to putting the bullpen together.

Aside from A.J. Minter (who exercised his player option for 2026) and Brooks Raley (whose club option for 2026 was picked up on Tuesday) there are no 2025 bullpen members who are a lock to be back. And Minter's start to the season will likely be delayed by a few weeks as he works his way back from the lat surgery that ended his 2025 campaign. 

Trade deadline acquisitions Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto are all free agents.

Members of the Mets' 40-man roster who could be relief options next season include Huascar Brazoban (who is arbitration-eligible), Jonathan Pintaro, and Dylan Ross.

Reed Garrett, who has been a mainstay the last two seasons, is expected to miss the entire 2026 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Resetting the Red Sox' infield after trade for Rays' Tristan Gray

Resetting the Red Sox' infield after trade for Rays' Tristan Gray originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Boston Red Sox added an infielder Tuesday. No, his name isn’t Pete Alonso.

The Red Sox acquired Tristan Gray from the Rays in a trade that sent minor-league pitcher Luis Guerrero to Tampa Bay. Boston designed first baseman Nathaniel Lowe for assignment to make room for Gray on the 40-man roster.

Gray isn’t exactly a household name — he’s spent time with four teams over the last two years since making his major league debut in 2023. The 29-year-old appeared in 30 games for the Rays last season, however, posting a .231 batting average with a .693 OPS to go along with three home runs, nine RBI and five doubles.

Gray has positional versatility, as well: He made nine starts at second base, seven starts at shortstop, three starts at second base and one start at first base last season. At the moment, he projects as an infield depth option who can make the occasional spot start if needed.

That begs the question: What could Boston’s starting infield look like in 2026? The answer is complicated, as the Red Sox are rumored to be interested in several prominent infield free agents while awaiting the decision of starting third baseman Alex Bregman.

Here’s a position-by-position rundown of Boston’s infield:

First base

  • Current depth chart: Triston Casas, Romy Gonzalez
  • Potential free-agent targets: Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto

You’d have to think the Red Sox will add a power-hitting first baseman this offseason, especially after DFA’ing Lowe. Casas has All-Star potential when healthy but has played just 92 games total over the past two seasons.

It appears Boston is already testing the first-base waters; MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported the Red Sox are the “strongest contender” for Alonso if he doesn’t re-sign with the New York Mets, while adding that Craig Breslow and Co. have “checked in” on Schwarber.

Murakami and Okamoto are two of the best hitters in Japan who are both coming stateside this winter. Both are third basemen but can play first base, so perhaps the Red Sox would explore adding them as well.

Second base

  • Current depth chart: Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell, Romy Gonzalez, David Hamilton, Tyler Sogard, Tristan Gray
  • Potential free-agent targets: Bo Bichette

Here’s where things get complicated.

If Alex Bregman re-signs in Boston after opting out of his contract, Mayer likely would be the starting second baseman, with Bregman playing third and Trevor Story at shortstop. If Bregman signs elsewhere, Mayer likely would slide to third, where he played 39 games last season.

Campbell was Boston’s opening day starter in 2025 but was in the minors by June. If the Red Sox believe he’s ready for the big leagues, he could get first crack at second base in the Mayer-at-third-base scenario. If not, perhaps they’d look to free agency; Audacy’s Rob Bradford reports the Red Sox have interest in Bo Bichette, who is primarily a shortstop but played second base during the World Series.

Ceddanne Rafaela also had a brief stint at second base last season but just won a Gold Glove in center field, so the Red Sox would be wise to keep him there.

Shortstop

  • Current depth chart: Trevor Story, Marcelo Mayer, David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez, Tristan Gray
  • Potential free-agent targets: Bo Bichette

Story opting in to stay in Boston solves at least one piece of the infield puzzle. But if Bregman signs elsewhere and the Red Sox want to get creative, they could sign Bichette to play shortstop, move Story to second base and start Mayer at third base.

Even if Bregman returns, Boston could benefit from having an extra starting-caliber infielder in the mix, as the team was very thin at first base last season following Casas’ injury.

Third base

  • Current depth chart: Marcelo Mayer, Nate Eaton, Romy Gonzalez, Tristan Gray
  • Potential free-agent targets: Alex Bregman, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto

As stated above, this comes down to whether Bregman re-signs with Boston or seeks greener pastures. The latter scenario might motivate the Red Sox to pursue either Murakami or Okamoto to bolster the corner of the infield. But Mayer figures to be the incumbent — assuming he can stay healthy.

Pros and Cons: Should Mets sign Cody Bellinger?

As the Mets' offseason shakes out, the huge domino that will fall regarding the offense isPete Alonso.

With Alonso a free agent for the second consecutive year, it can be argued that he is the best fit to fill the Mets' power need and that Alonso's most logical landing spot is right back in Queens

But with Alonso reportedly seeking a seven-year deal and his free agency potentially dragging out, New York could be forced to move on without him in order to remove the risk of losing other quality options.

No matter what happens with Alonso, though, the Mets should be looking to add more offense.

If Alonso leaves, New York's goal should be adding two impact bats.

If Alonso stays, the goal should be adding one other legitimate bat in addition to him.

With Starling Marte's $19.5 million off the books and the Mets possibly going internal in center field (with Carson Benge having a chance to win the job out of spring training), they should have the wiggle room to make the aforementioned additions.

Should the versatile Cody Bellinger be near the top of the list?

Here are the pros and cons of signing the outfielder/first baseman...

Jul 29, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Cody Bellinger (35) tosses his bat as he watches his three run home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the third inning at Yankee Stadium.
Jul 29, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Cody Bellinger (35) tosses his bat as he watches his three run home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the third inning at Yankee Stadium. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

PROS

In his age-29 season, Bellinger had his second-best campaign since winning the MVP award in 2019.

Over 656 plate appearances spanning 152 games for the Yankees, Bellinger slashed .272/.334/.480 (125 OPS+) with 29 home runs, 25 doubles, five triples, 98 RBI, and 89 runs scored.

Bellinger also didn't strike out much. The left-hander fanned only 90 times, continuing a career trend that has spanned from 2019 to now, which was interrupted only during the 2022 season. 

And Bellinger continued to show his versatility in 2025 as he started 115 games in right field, 36 games at first base, and 25 in center field. He was a plus defensively while moving all over the field, rating in the 93rd percentile when it comes to Outs Above Average and possessing an elite throwing arm.

Bellinger's aforementioned strikeout rate was among the best in the majors, while his other advanced offensive stats were a mixed bag. However, with his MVP season being an exception, he has rarely been above average when it comes to hitting the ball hard -- and has succeeded at the plate in spite of it. 

Meanwhile, Bellinger has repeatedly proven that he can handle playing in a big market.

His MVP season came in Los Angeles with the Dodgers, he had an .881 OPS for the Cubs in 2023, and excelled in 2025 in his first season with the Yanks.

Bellinger has also been a lineup mainstay for most of his career. He played in a career-low 95 games for the Dodgers in 2021 as he battled a bunch of different injuries, but has played between 132 and 162 games in every other season of his nine-year career.

Mar 29, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Cody Bellinger (35) hits an RBI single in the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Yankee Stadium.
Mar 29, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Cody Bellinger (35) hits an RBI single in the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Yankee Stadium. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

CONS

The Mets signing Bellinger would almost certainly be contingent on one of two things happening -- the departure of Alonso or the trade of Brandon Nimmo.

If Alonso returns -- and he should be at the top of the Mets' list of priorities -- there could still be room for Bellinger if Nimmo is traded. But there are a few issues there.

The first is that Nimmo has a full no-trade clause, which means he would have to approve any deal. The second is that while Nimmo is still an above average offensive player, his contract (five years remaining at $20.5 million per season) and age (he'll be 33 years old in March) might mean New York having to pay down some of his deal in a potential trade.

The simplest scenario could be the Mets signing Bellinger to replace Alonso at first base if the latter signs elsewhere, but that would make New York's lineup even more left-handed and not adequately fill the power void Alonso's departure would create.

Then there's the question of how much it will take to sign Bellinger, with a reasonable belief being that his contract will be between five and seven years long. 

As someone who is a plus offensive player, a plus defender, and a plus on the bases, it's hard to argue against that length of contract being fair for Bellinger. But while his struggles in 2021 and 2022 seem like an aberration, there are some underlying concerns regarding Bellinger's offensive production.

One of those concerns? Bellinger slashed .302/.365/.544 (.909 OPS) at the hitter's haven that is Yankee Stadium in 2025. On the road, he hit just .241/.301/.414 (.715 OPS). 

VERDICT

Even though Bellinger is a good offensive player who would help when it comes to the Mets' desire to improve their defense, he isn't a smooth fit. 

Perhaps that could change if Bellinger lingers on the market deep into the offseason and/or Alonso departs.

But as of now, the Mets' top offensive targets should be Alonso, Alex Bregman, and Bo Bichette

All eyes on Bryce: His path back to ‘elite' and what he needs from Phils

All eyes on Bryce: His path back to ‘elite' and what he needs from Phils originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Just over a month ago, Dave Dombrowski sat in the media room at Citizens Bank Park across from reporters following the Phillies’ fourth straight postseason exit.

The president of baseball operations kept things honest — maybe a little too honest.

Arguably the biggest takeaway from his 54-minute end-of-season press conference was about Bryce Harper. Dombrowski was blunt about the two-time MVP’s 2025 campaign and his outlook moving forward.

“He’s still an All-Star-caliber player. He didn’t have an elite season like he has had in the past. And I guess we only find out if he becomes elite or he continues to be good,” he said. “Can he rise to the next level again? I don’t really know that answer. He’s the one that will dictate that more than anything else.”

Dombrowski continued: “I don’t think he’s content with the year that he had. And again, it wasn’t a bad year. But when you think of Bryce Harper, you think of elite, right? You think of one of the top 10 players in baseball, and I don’t think it fit into that category.”

In 2025, the 32-year-old Harper slashed .261/.357/.487 with 27 home runs and 75 RBIs. His .844 OPS was his lowest in a season since joining the Phillies and his lowest overall since his age-23 year in 2016. He also played through nagging injuries.

He spent just over three weeks on the injured list in June with right wrist inflammation — an issue he’d felt earlier in the season.

A week after the press conference, with Harper trade chatter swirling, Dombrowski went on Foul Territory and tried to pull things back.

“First of all, to me, Bryce Harper is one of the best players in the game of baseball,” Dombrowski said. “Now I’ve been reading that, oh, the Phillies may trade Bryce Harper. That couldn’t be further from the truth. We love him.”

Still, Harper didn’t take Dombrowski’s initial comments lightly. In an interview with Matt Gelb of The Athletic, he said, “I have given my all to Philly from the start. Now there is trade talk? I made every effort to avoid this … It makes me feel uncomfortable.” He later added, “It’s disappointing to hear me being questioned about my contribution to the team. Just really hurt by that notion because I love Philly so much.”

Harper, who has no opt-out and a full no-trade clause, pointed out why the whole thing stung. “I wanted these fans to know Philly is my home, so from the start, I made the commitment to stay here for the rest of my career. No opt-out, even though I was advised otherwise,” he expressed. “From changing positions to coming back early from injury, I show total commitment for my team. And yet there is still trade talk.”

So now that his “elite” status is under the microscope, what can the Phillies expect from Harper in 2026?

Protect him.

Credit: Eric Hartline – Imagn Images

It all begins with lineup help.

Harper has lived in the 3-hole since arriving in 2019. In 2025, he rarely had consistent protection behind him. The cleanup spot produced a .720 OPS — 20th in MLB — a steep drop from his best years in Philadelphia.

Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto carried most of those at-bats this past season. Castellanos, 33, posted a .651 OPS in 214 plate appearances out of the four-spot; Realmuto, 34, had a .683 mark in 180 trips there.

Both of those names have offered real protection for Harper before.

His best two seasons as a Phillie came in 2021 and 2023.

In 2021, Harper put up a league-leading 1.044 OPS on his way to a second MVP. As a team, the Phillies had an .819 OPS — fifth-best in the National League. Realmuto did most of the cleanup work that year and hit .287 with an .832 OPS in that role.

In 2023, Harper slashed .293/.401/.499 (.900 OPS). The Phillies’ overall OPS jumped to .822, helped by Castellanos’ 15 homers and .300/.339/.514 line in the four-hole.

The pattern is obvious: when the cleanup spot is a threat, Harper’s numbers jump off the page.

In 2025, that wasn’t the case. The Phillies need a steady right-handed hitter behind him.

The Alonso question and a first-base pivot

Credit: Rick Osentoski – Imagn Images

One way to get there is the scenario that keeps coming up: Harper moving back to right field.

Dombrowski has publicly pushed back on that this offseason, saying the front office views Harper as its first baseman. But if Harper returned to the outfield, it would open the door to pursue a true middle-of-the-order bat at first — someone like Pete Alonso.

Alonso hit 38 homers and drove in 126 runs in 2025, while also leading the league in doubles. Even with some swing-and-miss, that kind of production behind Harper would change how pitchers game-plan entirely.

His market could be shaped by fellow free-agent first baseman Josh Naylor. On Monday, the 30-year-old signed a five-year, $92.5 million deal after a year in which he hit .295 with 20 homers, 92 RBIs and 30 steals. Naylor is two-and-a-half years younger than Alonso, and his $18.5 million AAV could keep Alonso’s asking price from getting out of control.

If the Phillies want to push Harper back toward “elite,” adding a legitimate right-handed bat behind him is the clearest path.

The analytics point up, a tad

For as much as Dombrowski’s comments have been dissected, Harper’s underlying metrics in 2025 actually trended the right way compared with his 30-homer, .898 OPS season in 2024.

His barrel rate, hard-hit percentage and bat speed all ticked up. His walk rate improved. His strikeout rate went down. The line on the back of the baseball card may have dipped, but the advanced numbers did not scream decline.

The lack of pitches to hit was real, too. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com noted that among hitters who saw at least 200 pitches, Harper saw strikes only 43 percent of the time — the lowest rate of any of the 532 qualified players. That’s what happens when there is a lack of protection.

It’s fair for the Phillies’ front office to ask whether he’ll be “elite” again at 33 and beyond. It’s also fair to point out that a .844 OPS during an injury-riddled season is still star-level production.

What to expect in 2026

Regardless of how you interpret the comments, there’s no question about Harper’s dedication — or his importance to the Phillies. He has a no-trade clause, chose no opt-out when he signed and has been vocal about wanting to finish his career in Philadelphia.

The front office’s responsibility now is straightforward: build a lineup that gives Harper a chance to produce at a higher level. That starts with real protection behind him.

If Harper is healthy, it’s not hard to envision a return closer to his 2021 and 2023 production than what he posted in 2025.

The word “elite” is going to hover around Harper all season. Dombrowski and the Phils will expect star-level production from the eight-time All-Star — and Harper has made it clear he’ll do everything he can to make that happen.