Category: MLB

The Athletics enter this afternoon’s series finale against the Tampa Bay Rays, facing the threat of being swept once again at home. After gaining momentum from Monday night’s crazy comeback victory, the Rays crushed six home runs on Tuesday night in a blowout series-clinching victory. Now, it is up to the A’s to salvage the series finale and avoid potentially falling to last place in the American League, capping the team’s swift fall from grace.

Roster Move

Before today’s game, the team shook up its bullpen as it continues tinkering to find the best possible group of relievers.

Hayden Juenger returns to the majors four days after he was optioned to Triple-A in the wake of a bad relief appearance. Left-hander Drew Rom, whom the A’s claimed off waivers from the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday, joins him. Rom, the team’s latest scrap-heap acquisition, will look to carve out a role in the A’s bullpen over the rest of the season.

Rom replaces Josè Suarez, who landed on the injured list with a right hip strain. Juenger takes the spot previously held by right-hander Yunior Tur, who allowed a three-run home run over two innings of relief yesterday before being optioned back to Triple-A.

Game Preview

Taking the ball for the home team will be right-hander Jack Perkins, who will face the Rays for the first time in his career. The 26-year-old enters his 29th appearance and 11th start of the season with a 2-8 record, a 7.04 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, three saves and 92 strikeouts across 76 2/3 innings pitched.

Last night, Athletics right-hander Mason Barnett turned in a poor start, allowing six runs on five hits, three of which were home runs, over just four innings. If the A’s want to have a chance at salvaging this series finale and avoiding another embarrassing defeat, they will need Perkins to step up and post a quality start, giving his team a chance to win.

Perkins enters this start in the midst of a rough stretch, as his last two outings did not go well. In his last start against the Boston Red Sox, Perkins allowed five runs on five hits over just three innings. He has not won any of his last seven games, compiling an 0-5 record with an 8.22 ERA.

Here’s how the Athletics’ lineup stacks up tonight for the series finale against the AL East foe:

Last night, Tyler Soderstrom rested to protect his ailing hip. Today, it’s banged-up Jacob Wilson’s turn to get the day off, with Donovan Walton starting at shortstop in his place. Zack Gelof starts at second base, his third position in three games since returning from the injured list. Right fielder Lawrence Butler, who hit a two-run home run yesterday, seeks to have another productive day offensively this afternoon.

The bottom third of this lineup stick out, which means the A’s need offensive contributions from one or more of them to have a shot at ending this series with a win. Wilson’s hitting approach has rubbed off on Tommy White, who has gone from a power-hitting slugger in college to a swing-at-everything singles hitter in the majors.

Tampa Bay meanwhile has Drew Rasmussen getting the start for them. The longtime leader of the Rays’ rotation earned a well-deserved second AL All-Star nod last month. The 31-year-old right-hander is having another excellent season, as he enters his 23rd start with an 11-5 record, a 2.75 ERA, an exceptional 0.91 WHIP and 130 strikeouts across 124 1/3 innings pitched.

Unlike Perkins, Rasmussen comes into his start today in unhittable form. He has not allowed a run in any of his past three starts, pitching at least six innings in all three games. Most recently, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Seattle Mariners, allowing only two hits while striking out eight.

Taking into account his dominance and the fact that the A’s lineup is missing several injured starters, this will be a difficult test for the A’s offense, which will have to capitalize on any mistake pitches Rasmussen leaves over the plate and any errors the Rays’ defense makes behind him.

And Tampa’s lineup:

The Rays lineup has certainly enjoyed the hitter-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, scoring double-digit runs in both games of this series so far. Third baseman Junior Caminero has shown why he is one of the best power hitters in the league, blasting huge home runs in each game.

The strategy for Perkins is simple: He must throw strikes while avoiding middle-middle fastballs and hanging breaking balls. If he struggles for a third straight start, A’s manager Mark Kotsay will be forced to go to his bullpen earlier than expected for a second consecutive game.

Let’s get back to our winning ways and play some spoiler. Let’s go A’s!

Follow the Game:
Watch:
Athletics – NBCSCA

Listen:
Athletics -Talk 650 KSTE, A’s Cast

TONIGHT’S GAME: The first-place Astros finish up their six-game West Coast road trip this afternoon as LHP Bryan King will make his first career start in the rubber match at Oracle Park.

The Giants will sending out former Astro RHP Adrian Houser (3-7) to start the series finale.

THE TURNAROUND: After a slow start to the season, the Astros are 41-29 since May 22, which is the second best record in the AL in that span.

On that date, the Astros were 20-31, 11 games under, which is their low water mark for the season.

THAT’S OFFENSIVE: The Astros lead the AL in SLG (.412), while ranking second in OPS (.732), home runs (162) and hits (996).

In the Majors, the Astros rank third in homers, trailing only the Nationals (174) and Yankees (167).

OPENING FESTIVITIES: LHP Bryan King will work as an opener for the Astros this afternoon, marking his first career Major League start.

Today marks the second use of an opener by the Astros this season, as LHP Steven Okert started and tossed 0.2 of an inning on May 4 vs. LAD.

King last pitched on Sunday at SD and ranks third on the Astros with 47 appearances this season.

Today’s start will also be King’s first professional start, as all 86 of his career minor league games have also been in relief.

ROAD WARRIORS: The Astros close out their six-game road trip this afternoon needing a victory to go 3-3 on their visit to the West Coast, which also included a stop in San Diego.

Houston has gone 24-16 (.600) on their last five road trips and are 30-22 (.577) on the road since going 1-9 on their first road trip of the season Houstonis 31-31 overall on the road in 2026.

THE LINEUP: The Astros have used 119 different lineups in their 121 games, repeating a lineup just twice on the season.

DH Yordan Alvarez has the most starts at any spot in the lineup among Astros, hitting second 108 times.

LAST NIGHT’S GAME: The Astros had their three-game series in San Francisco evened last night with a 4-1 loss to the Giants at Oracle Park.

DH Yordan Alvarez (0x1, RBI, BB, HBP) drove in the Astros’ run with a sacrifice fly in the 2nd inning.

3B Isaac Paredes (2×4) logged his third multi-hit game through five games this road trip…RHP Hunter Brown (5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 SO) made his 12th start of the season and was dealt just his second losing decision of the year.

VS. THE GIANTS: The Astros have a long history with the Giants, having played them 743 times, their second-most against a single opponent, trailing only the Reds (860g).

This series marks the Astros’ first trip to Oracle Park since June 10-12, 2024 (Giants went 2-1).

The Astros have a pair of players who spent portions of their Major League careers with the Giants in LHP Steven Okert (2016-18) and OF LaMonte Wade Jr. (2021-25).

CAM JAM: RF Cam Smith has homered three times and logged two three-hit games through his first four appearances of this current road trip, including his fourth career multi-homer game last Friday at SD.

So far this road trip, Smith has batted .467 (7×15) with six runs, three homers and four RBI…he has also hit safely in nine of his last 11 games (since July 29 at LAA), batting .425 (17×41) with 11 runs, two doubles, one triple, three home runs, eight RBI and a 1.174 OPS over that stretch.

In the AL since July 29, he ranks first in OPS and third in batting average (min. 40 AB).

YESTERDAY’S MOVES: OF Nelson Velázquez (No. 30) reported to the Major League team yesterday and made his Astros debut with a start in LF.

To make room for Velázquez on the active roster, the Astros optioned OF Jake Meyers to Triple A Sugar Land following Monday’s game.

Velázquez, 27, has played in 229 career games at the Major League level, appearing with the Cubs (2022-23), Royals (2023-24) and Cardinals (2026), along with the Astros.

Velázquez owns a career .731 OPS vs. left-handed pitching in the Majors.

MVP-CALIBER: Yordan Alvarez holds a share of the lead in all AL Triple Crown categories, ranking first in batting average (.322), T-1st in HR (35), and RBI (87).

Additionally, he leads MLB in OPS (1.058), OBP (.435), SLG (.623), and TB (269).

In the AL, he ranks first in hits (139), extra-base hits (60) and runs (80), and is tied for second in walks (83).

HADERADE: LHP Josh Hader has been stellar since returning from injury in early June, going 4-1 with a 1.00 ERA (3ER/27IP), 38 strikeouts, a .110 opponent batting average (10×91) and a 0.74 WHIP, while also converting all 16 of his save opportunities.

Since being reinstated from the IL on June 3, he ranks second in opponent batting average (.110), third in SO/9 (12.67) and fifth in ERA among AL relievers (min. 25 IP).

THREES COMPANY: 2B Jose Altuve enters today’s game with 224 career games of 3+ hits, which is just one game of 3+ hits from tying Hall of Famer Craig Biggio (225) for the most in Astros franchise history.

Altuve has multiple hits in six of his last 13 games (since July 28 at LAA), batting .319 (15×47) with a .781 OPS in that span.

BEET RED HOT: OF Taylor Trammell has posted a .965 OPS (.404 OBP/.561 SLG) with 10 runs, one double, four home runs, eight RBI and nine walks in his last 13 games (since July 26 at CWS).

His .965 OPS since July 26 ranks eighth among AL players in that span (min. 50 PA).

BIG WES: RHP Hayden Wesneski parroted the first two successful outings of his season by matching his career high of 7.0 innings in Monday’s win, allowing three runs on five hits with two walks and four strikeouts.

Wesneski has gone 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA (8ER/18.2IP) through his first three starts of the season after missing 14 months due to Tommy John surgery.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2:45 p.m. CT

Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA

TV: Space City Home Network

Radio: KBME 790 AM & 94.5 FM HD2; TUDN 102.9 FM HD2 (Spanish)

The Atlanta Braves losing the season series to this iteration of the New York Metropolitans is some pure and unadulterated NL East silliness.

This hilariously frustrating run between division rivals comes to a close this evening. The Braves and Mets will face off for the final time this season at 7:15 pm ET.

Bryce Elder and Martin Perez had some diametrically opposed starts in Games 1 and 2 – so what will Tyler Mahle bring to Game 3 in his first start in front of the home crowd?

Mahle (3-9, 4.83 ERA) went toe-to-toe with old friend Max Fried in the Yankees series opener. In a battle of #54s, Mahle spun six scoreless innings of three-hit ball. He tossed 92 pitches, walked two batters, and struck out nine. Other than receiving a no-decision in the extra-innings loss, there was a lot to like about Mahle’s first start in a Braves uniform. Sean Murphy turning Mahle into an ace? Sign me up.

The Mets have little history against Mahle – Francisco Lindor leads the team with 10 ABs (.200 AVG, .473 OPS). Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Jr. are tied with 6 ABs and matching .167 averages. Second baseman Marcus Semien and catcher Francisco Alvarez have a homer apiece. 

The Braves have even less experience against Mets lefty Zac Thornton (3-2, 2.52 ERA). The rookie last faced Atlanta on July 27 and was the winning pitcher in the Connor Thomas sacrifice game. Thornton only needed 81 pitches to get through 6.1 innings. He was tagged for six hits and all three Braves runs of the game, including an Ozzie Albies two-run homer. Ozzie was also responsible for driving in the other run, which accounts for his .667 AVG in team-leading 3 ABs. Ronald Acuña Jr., Drake Baldwin, and Michael Harris II also have singles against him. 

Thornton’s outings since have been against Miami (4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R (3 earned), 3 BB) and Pittsburgh (5.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB). 

Series finale, rubber match, final matchup with the Mets – it’d be a sweet one to win before the off day tomorrow. 

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, August 12, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

The St. Louis Cardinal wrap up their homestand before heading off to Chicago with a game Wednesday afternoon against the Philadelphia Phillies. Kyle Leahy gets the nod from the Cardinals while Zack Wheeler will start for the Phillies. First pitch scheduled for 1:15pm central time at Busch Stadium and game TV broadcast will be available via Cardinals.tv.

Yesterday we took a closer look at the Clay Holmes part of this transaction that brought a sinkerball throwing, extreme ground ball pitcher to the Cubs rotation in return for one of their top prospects, Jefferson Rojas. You can read about the Rojas part of the trade in the link above, however today I want to focus on the second piece the Cubs got in this deal: outfielder Tyrone Taylor. Here is his first hit as a Cub [VIDEO].

The bat

Taylor is a 32-year-old righthanded outfielder whose overall slash line doesn’t really jump off the page. In 174 plate appearances this season he’s hit .241/.294/.481 with ten home runs and zero stolen bases. He has an above league average strikeout rate of 19.5 percent and a below league average walk rate of 5.7 percent. His wRC+ of 113 indicates he’s about 13 percent better at run creation than the league and park adjusted average.

However, digging into the stats a bit reveal the reason Taylor is a Cub. He has a much better .295/.304/.564 slashline with five home runs and a wRC+ of 137 in 82 plate appearances against lefties. Below you can see the Cubs hitters with at least 20 plate appearances against lefties sorted by wRC+ with some additional key stats:

To be clear, hitting against southpaws is a strength of the Chicago Cubs. Their team wRC+ of 124 is seven points higher than the next best team, their wOBA of .353 is nine points higher than the second place team (in both cases it’s the Washington Nationals). But there is a glaring outlier at the bottom of that table in left fielder Ian Happ. Happ has really struggled against lefties this year and it seems pretty clear that Taylor was brought to the Cubs at least in part as a short-side platoon partner for Happ.

Interestingly, that isn’t how the Cubs have played it so far. Taylor has started three games in centerfield to allow Pete Crow-Armstrong to DH on those days while Happ is still starting against left- and right-handed pitching. Admittedly, one of those lefty starters was an opener, but it’s worth keeping an eye on how Counsell deploys Taylor.

The glove

It’s a bit difficult to measure a part-time outfielder based on counting stats like Outs Above Average or Defensive Runs Saved. Taylor doesn’t really jump off the page by either metric this season. He’s got zero OAA this season and one DRS this season in 393.2 innings played in the outfield so far this season. He’s committed two errors this season and they were both fielding errors for a fielding percentage of .979. Again, not really a stat that screams excellent defender.

However, in looking at the rate at which he makes plays by difficulty Taylor compares favorable to Ian Happ in left field:

Obviously we’re looking at pretty small sample sizes here given Taylor’s part-time role. But I did glance back at these leaderboards for each of the last few seasons and the slight edge Taylor has over Happ also existed in 2024 and 2025 as well. Taylor consistently makes slightly more difficult plays than Happ. He’s also just a smidge better in terms of total percentage of plays made. It’s less clear who has the stronger arm as both have a handful of assists each season. The bottom line is Taylor makes the outfield a lot deeper and since he can play center field he upgrades the Cubs’ bench options considerably.

Here’s a nice grab he made against the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman last week [VIDEO].

Takeaways

One of the items on Craig Counsell’s wish list heading into the trade deadline was a better right-handed bat off the bench who could play the outfield. Taylor certainly fits that bill. He’s been solid defensively so far with the Cubs and has a track record that backs that up. His familiarity with Wrigley Field is a bonus given his time with the Brewers. This is the type of move that makes a contender deeper down the stretch and while the cost of Rojas for two rentals is incredibly steep, I imagine we’ll all be fine with it if Taylor saves a run with his glove or delivers a key hit off a lefty in October.

Diamondbacks News

Diamondbacks Need to Jumpstart Offense to Take Series
After Tomoyuki Sugano continued his ownership of the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, they find themselves needing to get back to firing on all cylinders at the plate so that they can take this series against the lowly Rockies before heading out on the road for a string of series against competitive teams.

Diamondbacks Injury Return Tracker
With all the numerous setbacks the team has had with injured players this season, this writer is not holding his breath for any of these players to make any meaningful appearances this season until after they actually do so and are still healthy a week later.

Diamondbacks Expecting Major Martinez Injury Boost on Road Trip
Will Justin Martinez be able to find his command and control again in time to make any sort of meaningful contribution in August and September? Assuming no further setbacks, Arizona could start seeing an answer to that question within the next week or so.

Other Baseball News

Which Teams are Built to be Most Dangerous in the Playoffs
Interesting to see that Arizona is ranked competitively against the Dodgers for this, despite Los Angeles adding Tarik Skubal at the deadline.

10 Storylines that will Shape Rest of 2026 Season
Are the Diamondbacks, sitting in the thick of the playoff race, a solid team? Or are they doing all this with smoke and mirrors?

Brewers Have Most Underrated Bullpen Duo in MLB
Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe are going to be key to essentially any and all success Milwaukee is expecting to have in October.

Paul Skenes Leaves After 65 Pitches and Velocity Drop
No updates yet from the Bucs about this concerning development.

Dodgers’ Snell Fans 10 in Six Innings Returning from Injury
Blake nell is apparently getting himself tuned up just in time to help bolster the Dodgers for the run-in to the playoffs.

MLB Owners to Vote on Padres Sale Next Monday
Major League Baseball’s 29 other owners will vote on the Padres sale on Monday. The agreement will need approval from 22 owners, the final step to finalize the transfer of majority control to José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones.

Momentary panic swept through Los Angeles on Wednesday morning when news broke that Mark Walter was selling the Los Angeles Lakers only 10 months after being approved as the team's owner, wondering whether the Dodgers are next.

Well, as it turns out, nothing is expected to change.

The Dodgers are not being sold, a high-ranking official familiar with Walter’s plans told USA TODAY Sports, and that it will be business as usual with Walter retaining control of the club and remaining chairman.

The person spoke on the condition of anonymity ahead of Walter issuing an official statement Wednesday.

So, yes, even when the Dodgers win their next World Series, they can still afford to have a parade and celebrate with Dom Perignon.

The Dodgers are still going to be the Dodgers. Oh, they won’t have the crossover in advertising and marketing with the Lakers any longer, but Walter and the Guggenheim ownership group will have an extra $2.5 billion in their pockets – although they’ll be paying significant taxes on the short-term capital gain.

The Adley Rutschman deal is finally complete. Harold Rivas, who was widely reported to be a part of the deal on the day it was made, only for that reporting to be walked back, has now officially been named as the final player to be named later going from Boston to Baltimore. An athletic outfielder with a high-risk/high-reward profile, Rivas was the 10th-rated prospect in the system according to Soxprospects.com. As an 18-year-old who has yet to graduate out of the Florida Complex League, he is the definition of a lottery ticket. (Brian Murphy, MLB.com)

The Sox did get one prospect back on deadline day: 21-year-old outfielder Carlos Gutierrez, who came over from the Giants in the Marcelo Mayer deal. Gutierrez has hit the ground running down in Greenville, which probably pleases his Red Sox fan sister. (Christopher Smith, MassLive)

As for Rutschman, he immediately proved his value to his new team, reaching base three times in last night’s loss to the Jays. “He’s an All-Star catcher, and I have all the confidence in the world in him,” said battery mate Patrick Sandoval. “He’s a big-time catcher, big-time player. We’re very lucky to have him here.” Rutschman will get the start again tonight before taking Thursday afternoon’s game off as recovers from his wrist injury. (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

Despite the confidence he had in throwing to Rutschman, Sandoval didn’t have the best night. So why did Chad Tracy leave him in for the sixth inning when he coughed up the lead? “We’re still in a position… where we have to be careful with when we chase (wins) and when we don’t,” Tracy said. “Obviously, we used Guerrero for an inning. You look at that before the game and decide, ‘How much are we willing to chase?’ We’ll chase with one guy, but doing it with two or three guys, then (you’re) having to deal with it on the back side.” (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

The counter move to Rutschman’s addition to the roster was the DFA of catcher Jake Rogers, who performed very well for the Sox in his limited time with the team. The Sox are not expecting Rogers to make it through waivers. (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

As Rogers departs, a new (old) arm enters. Lefty reliever Alec Gamboa has been recalled to the big league club. He posted an ERA of 2.08 in his first 7 MLB appearances this year. (Rodney Knuppel, NESN)

But let’s face it: lefty middle relievers aren’t the additions you want to hear about right now. It’s Roman Anthony you want, and this losing streak shows why he’s still so important to this team. (Rob Bradford, WEEI)

Even with the Orioles trying their darndest to bury their postseason chances on their own, the rest of the American League just refuses to do all that much to throw more dirt on this team. They linger on, two or three games out – currently two – and while it’s not terribly likely that they leapfrog four teams to make it in as the third wild card team, the flame of hope has not gone out entirely just yet.

Probably it will go out when their next ten games after today are against the Rays and Yankees. But it’s not out yet, so winning today’s game still matters. The Orioles flip back ahead of the Twins in that wild card picture if they win the finale today.

Elements of a decent enough team are in this mix somewhere. That’s the frustrating thing! That’s been the frustrating thing all season long. They should have been better than this. Even without the guys who were traded last week, they still could be better.

Last night’s effort by Gunnar Henderson was a tantalizing look at what “better” might look like. It’s pretty simple, really: If the guy who should have been the team’s best player starts playing like the team’s best player again, the Orioles are better off. It is fun to dream about that better Henderson re-emerging suddenly on August 11 and staying with us through the remainder of this season plus the next two as well.

That’s the same kind of fun that it is to dream about the stuff you’d do with a lottery jackpot in the several hundred million dollar range. It’s not going to happen, but assuming you don’t spend money you can’t afford to waste to get one or two plays, it really doesn’t cost too much to believe in it until the numbers come in.

If the Orioles prove themselves good enough to get to like 84 wins, there’s no reason they couldn’t start beating all the other flawed teams in the AL in short series. They probably won’t, but they still could. That’s better than nothing.

Orioles lineup

1. Gunnar Henderson – SS
2. Pete Alonso – 1B
3. Jackson Holliday – 2B
4. Tyler O’Neill – DH
5. Dylan Beavers – LF
6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 3B
7. Leody Taveras – RF
8. Christian Franklin – CF
9. Carlos Narváez – C

This is the lineup supporting Shane Baz. Or at least, hopefully it will support him. Baz has not gotten much run support at all this season, his 4-11 record standing as a testament to the declining value of judging a pitcher’s quality by his W-L. Baz has a 3.76 ERA (111 ERA+) and is averaging just about six innings per start. The defense behind him at times and a lack of run support at other times have not helped him. Maybe it will go better today.

Henderson continues in the leadoff spot. As mentioned above, this finally paid off last night. Will it continue? I doubt it. The Orioles have no real choice but to believe in Henderson and they are choosing to express this in the most dramatic way possible, throwing him in at the top of the lineup when his season performance this season has not earned it in any way.

One thing I think can be said about manager Craig Albernaz is that he believes in his guys. This trait would seem laudable if his supposed-to-be-good guys were playing better and if he had better guys overall. Henderson, Rico Garcia, and Grant Wolfram between them have probably generated a decent percentage of the disappointment in the first-year skipper. For Garcia and Wolfram, at least, part of the answer is that Mike Elias could have signed better relievers.

Speaking of Henderson, we’re running a poll this week that asks if he will ever have a good season for the Orioles again. Have you voted yet?

Twins lineup

1. Trevor Larnach – LF
2. Royce Lewis – 1B
3. Josh Bell – DH
4. Koby Clemens – 2B
5. Brooks Lee – 3B
6. Luke Keaschall – CF
7. Victor Caratini – C
8. Alan Roden – RF
9. Ryan Kreidler – SS

The Twins starter, Zebby Matthews, has a 5.23 ERA so far in this season. Orioles fans are regrettably well acquainted in the 2026 season with what this means for today’s game.

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The Chicago White Sox sit as a -148 home favorite on Wednesday night against the Cincinnati Reds, with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET at Rate Field.

However, my Reds vs. White Sox predictions are backing Cincinnati as a road underdog behind a pitching matchup that is far closer than the price suggests.

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12.

Who will win Reds vs White Sox today: Reds moneyline (+134)

The Chicago White Sox have been the better team this season, but I don’t see enough separation in Wednesday’s pitching matchup to lay this price.

Luis Castillo owns a 5.30 ERA and is 0-3 with a 6.33 ERA over his last five appearances, including five earned runs in four innings in his White Sox debut.

Rhett Lowder’s 5.26 ERA doesn’t look much better on paper, but his recent work is far more encouraging. He's allowed only two earned runs in each of his last three starts.

Chicago deserves to be favored at home, but at +134, the Cincinnati Reds don’t need to be the likelier winner for there to be value. With Lowder trending up and Castillo trending down, I’d play this pick to +120.

COVERS INTEL: Castillo’s four-seam fastball has cratered from a +11 run value in 2025 to -5 in 2026, with opponents’ slugging jumping from .411 to .466, and he still throws it more than 44% of the time.

Reds vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-116)

Lowder’s recent improvement makes the Under tempting, but there’s enough volatility on both sides of this matchup to prefer the Over at 8.5.

Castillo is the biggest reason, pairing his 5.30 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a career-high home run rate.

Chicago punishes mistakes as one of baseball’s stronger home run clubs, hitting three solo homers in Tuesday’s opener. Cincinnati’s relief group has been one of the weakest in baseball, while Chicago’s just coughed up a three-run eighth-inning lead in the opener.

With two starters carrying ERAs north of 5.25 and shaky pens behind them, I like the number at 8.5, and I’d play this to -130.

Reds vs White Sox home run prediction: Sal Stewart (+474)

I’m chasing a Reds home run here because Castillo has been extremely vulnerable to the long ball, allowing at least two homers in three of his last four outings. His most-used pitch, the four-seam fastball, has become a liability.

Enter Sal Stewart, the Reds’ best four-seam masher, who slugs .643 against the pitch with a +14 run value. The rookie has 25 home runs this season and has gone deep six times in his last 22 games.

I love his price and I’d play this down to +400, at a half unit.

Reds vs White Sox weather

Weather at Rate Field leans hitter-friendly on Wednesday night, with warm temperatures and high humidity near 90%, one of the muggiest environments on the MLB slate. The ballpark already ranks among the best in baseball for home runs, so those conditions give a slight boost to offense and to the Stewart home-run pick. 

Reds vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Reds +134 | White Sox -148
• Run line: Reds +1.5 | White Sox -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Reds vs White Sox trend

Cincinnati has cashed the moneyline in seven of its last 10 games as a road underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. White Sox.

How to watch Reds vs White Sox and game info

Reds vs White Sox latest injuries

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With left-hander Framber Valdez on the bump, the Detroit Tigers are a -122 moneyline favorite tonight against their AL Central rivals, the Cleveland Guardians. 

With the struggling Foster Griffin on the hill for Cleveland, my Guardians vs. Tigers predictions are targeting Detroit in-form offense to thrive. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, August 12. 

Who will win Guardians vs Tigers today: Tigers moneyline (-126)

Framber Valdez has been throwing the ball well for the Detroit Tigers. Across his last two starts, he owns a 2.37 FIP while not allowing a single home run.

Over the last month, Valdez also has a 3.79 FIP, and he now faces a Cleveland Guardians lineup that has struggled against lefties, posting an 88 wRC+.

As for Foster Griffin, he was lit up in his Cleveland debut last week, allowing five earned runs. Griffin also compiled a 5.74 xERA over his previous three appearances before that while still with the Nationals.

The Tigers are an offensive juggernaut right now, carrying a 130 wRC+ over their last 11 contests into tonight’s matchup. They also have a 100 wRC+ vs lefties. 

Detroit has the edge. Play this pick up to -140.

COVERS INTEL: The Guardians have struggled to produce offensively on the road, posting an 86 wRC+ compared to a 103 mark at Progressive Field. That gives Valdez another matchup edge in Detroit. 

Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)

This total sits at 8.5, and I'm liking the Under. While neither bullpen has been perfect lately, both offenses are showing very little power right now. Cleveland owns a .111 ISO over the last week, while Detroit sits even lower at .090 during that span.

The Tigers’ bullpen has been manageable with a 4.07 FIP over the last week while allowing 1.27 HR/9. Cleveland’s pen is more concerning with a 5.19 FIP and 7.25 BB/9, but the Guardians’ lineup has not shown enough thump lately to fully push this toward the Over.

With both offenses lacking power, this profiles as a lower-scoring game.

Play this pick up to -130.

Guardians vs Tigers home run prediction: Jo Adell (+510)

Jo Adell may only have one home run in his last seven contests, but he is smashing the baseball right now, even if it has not left the yard as often as he’d like. The slugger owns a 46.7% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate over the last two weeks.

What really stands out is the 20-degree average launch angle. Adell is consistently getting lift on the baseball, with a 60% fly-ball rate during that span. He has also smoked 10 homers off lefties this season and owns a .269 ISO against them.

Adell is a solid candidate to go yard.

Play this pick down to +500.

Guardians vs Tigers weather

Weather at Comerica Park looks playable tonight after some earlier afternoon storm risk in Detroit. Conditions should be partly cloudy to mostly clear by first pitch, with temperatures falling from about 81°F at 7 p.m. to 72°F by 11 p.m. Overall, it looks mild with no major weather edge for scoring.

Guardians vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Cleveland +117 | Detroit -122
• Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-186) | Detroit -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Guardians vs Tigers trend

The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Tigers.

How to watch Guardians vs Tigers and game info

Guardians vs Tigers latest injuries

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We’re three-quarters of the way through the season, and while Drew Rasmussen and I really wanted the Yankees to trade for Reid Detmers at the deadline, there are two pitchers gunning for the AL Cy Young. New York’s Cam Schlittler has surpassed expectations for his sophomore season, and Dylan Cease has been just about the only watchable player on a bad Blue Jays team.

At time of writing, the two were separated by 0.1 fWAR, a difference that is quite literally negligible. Cease has done it in about 20 fewer innings, so on a per-inning basis he’s been slightly more valuable, but Schlittler leads the AL in innings pitched and I think that does matter, even in the five-and-fly era we find ourselves in. Although Cease is posting an insane 36.1-percent strikeout rate, Schlittler’s superior control means he’s a hair ahead in K-BB rate at 26.1 percent to 25.5 percent; I personally consider this to be the single most useful pitching stat.

To keep up the fun, they even mirrored each other in recent starts. Last Thursday at the Friendly Confines, Cease went seven shutout innings against a likely playoff team, striking out 10 against a single walk. The Jays lost. On Sunday, Cam went seven innings against a likely playoff team, allowing a single run, sitting down 11 on strikes while walking nobody, and the Yankees lost. It’s one of those strange things about baseball; position dictates the two men will never actually face off against one another, but they’re going blow-for-blow in a heavyweight fight.

There’s 40-ish games left this year, and that means about eight starts apiece for the two favorites. The question isn’t what they’ve done so far in 2026, it’s how they’ll close down the stretch. The big mark against Schlittler is his home runs, a symptom of throwing so many pitches in the zone — as of Tuesday morning, Cease put the ball in the zone 42 percent of the time, Schlittler 49 percent. It seems a major focus of the Yankee’s season has been making guys hit their way aboard, and while that’s worked for the most part, he’s allowed twice as many homers as his northern rival.

Now to Cease’s credit, one of the goals of his season seems to be controlling contact quality. He’s running the lowest barrel rate, average exit velo, fly ball rate, and second-lowest hard-hit rate of his career, exactly what you’d want to do to keep the ball in the yard. xFIP, which adjusts FIP to assume a normal home run rate, does expect some slight regression down the stretch, pegging him for a 2.68 mark instead of his current 2.40 ERA. This has less to do with any choices Cease is making, and more to do with the fact that it’s just unlikely for any pitcher to surrender so few home runs. (Indeed just yesterday, he gave up multiplehomers in a start for just the fourth time this year.)

We can try and map out who Schlittler will face down the stretch — it’s imperfect as the Yankees have a key series with Boston at the end of the month that Cam’s currently not tabbed to start in, and it might make sense for the club to shuffle the rotation around to make sure he makes an appearance over say, Will Warren. There’s also a persistent rumor that Carlos Rodón will return to the team, but hey I’ll believe that when I see it. Those caveats aside, Cam’s tabbed for four starts on the road, against the Blue Jays, Angels, Padres, and Diamondbacks. This is critical when we’ve seen him develop a pretty stark home/road split this season, with a paltry 1.10 ERA/2.39 FIP on the road, compared to a 3.95 ERA/2.95 FIP at the Stadium.

I also think the innings matter!

Cease has been more valuable on a per-inning basis, like I said above. On a 200-inning pace, Dylan would have a 6.9 fWAR season, Cam would be at “just” 6.3. But Dylan Cease isn’t going to throw 200 innings, averaging exactly six innings a start he may not make it to 180. If—and it’s a big if—Cam ends the season effectively tied with Cease across multiple metrics but has a clear lead across the AL in innings pitched, I actually think that makes him more deserving of the award.

Yes, yes, per-inning basis and all, but there’s a certain security you have when you know your pitcher is going to go deep into the game every fifth day. It brings stability to the rotation and nobody’s rotation stays healthy all season, it gives you more options the day before Cam’s start, where Aaron Boone can say “OK, let’s make XYZ move because Schlittler is probably pitching deep tomorrow.” It also gives you more options the day after, since the bullpen is probably a little more rested after the righty starts.

My biggest complaint with the rise of the bullpen game is that the more pitchers you use, the greater the chance that one guy just doesn’t have it that day. He slept funny the night before and his neck has a pinch, or he can’t get a handle on his slider, it’s not really his fault but he just doesn’t have it. The fewer pitchers you use, the fewer possible points of failure. Bulk does matter, to me.

With a quarter of the season to go, figuring out the home runs, the Yankee Stadium issue — which may be one and the same, Cam gives up 1.11 HR/9 in the Bronx and 0.70 away — and continuing to pitch deep into each start is the trifecta for a Cy Young season. Dylan Cease may see some regression, especially on the home run front, but you can’t win a major award by hoping the other guy slows down. I expect this to come right down to the wire, but hopefully Cam ends up on top.

Who wins the rubbermatch today? Will Luis Arraez get a hit? Do the Phillies score more than 0-1 runs? Come find out starting 2:15 today with Zack Wheeler on the mound! Lineups: