Category: MLB

As of the morning of May 29th, there have been 171 players who have logged at least 120 plate appearances at the AAA level so far this season. Noelvi Marte is one of them, and none of the other players in that group has hit for a higher average (.371) than him.

He ranks fifth among that group with a 1.005 OPS, surrounded on the leaderboard by familiar names like Rece Hinds (1.045, 4th) and Edwin Arroyo (.960, 14th). Unlike Hinds, though, his 15.8% strikeout rate ranks among the toughest to fan among that sample, ranking as the 15th lowest.

These are nice numbers. Very nice, very good numbers, indeed. They aren’t at all the numbers the Cincinnati Reds are looking for, however, as they gauge whether or not to bring Marte back into the big league fold.

At the big league level to begin the 2026 season, Marte struggled mightily with these traditional production stats, but more than anything he struggled with many of the underlying ones hitting coaches everywhere break down on film each day. In particular, Marte posted a 45.8% O-Swing% in his time with the Reds, a mark that measures how often a player swung at pitches that were located outside of the strike zone. Among the 309 players who logged at least 30 PA through April 14th – the day Marte was optioned back to AAA due to his struggles – that ranked 9th highest in the sport.

The prevailing sentiment about the gap between big league pitching and the pitching in AAA ball right now isn’t so much about ‘stuff’ as it is about ‘command.’ In AAA, a ball two inches outside the zone is often a trackable delivery that’s simply missing its spot, a pitch intended to be a strike that simply wasn’t accurate enough. That’s the kind of pitch where expanding the zone doesn’t hurt so much, as chasing a four-seamer with a bit of a longer swing can still produce excellent contact. Pitches two inches outside the zone at the big league level, though, are so often there by design – pitches with enough movement to look like they’re going to be in the meat of the zone only to dive just out of reach at the very last.

The worry early with Marte was that while he was producing at the AAA level after being sent down, a lot of that was still coming by swinging at pitch locations that would penalize him, and the Reds offense, if he kept that up upon returning to the bigs. So far with the Bats, though, Marte has begun to rein in those tendencies, and so far sports just a 35.4% O-Swing% at the AAA level this year. That’s much more in-line with where he was at the big league level in 2025 (33.0%) and at AAA last year (35.1%), suggesting that he’s beginning to target the right kind of pitches at which to swing in lieu of free-swinging in a way that simply won’t work at the highest level.

That’s half the equation for Marte fighting his way back onto the active roster of the Reds. The other, of course, is where the heck he’s going to play, something the Reds have been attempting to figure out since the moment they acquired him from the Seattle Mariners.

The Reds picked him up as a SS, and promptly began working him there, at 3B, and even at 2B for a time. We all know their insistence on upgraded defense over his at 3B last summer led to the fateful decision to acquire Ke’Bryan Hayes, a move that shifted Marte to a corner outfield spot where he’d never played before. He’s still getting run in RF so far this season, yet in each of his most recent appearances with the Bats he’s started and played exclusively in CF – something that has coincided with the AAA outfield losing Rece Hinds to the Marlins and Blake Dunn to the big league roster.

Clearly, Reds brass is doing their best to equip him to be the most versatile version of himself defensively in order to get him back on the roster in some form, at some point. The more positions he can play, the fewer pitches he chases will continue to inch him closer to a return to the Reds, something that seems inevitable if he continues to perform at this type of level.

The biggest problem for him now, though, is that the Reds have seemingly found a lineup at the big league level that’s producing well enough without him. Dunn has become the apple of Terry Francona’s eye atop the order and in CF, his speed and defense calling cards being buttressed by more offense (especially against RHP) than most anyone anticipated. That’s beside JJ Bleday carving out a vital everyday role in one outfield corner, while Spencer Steer has had perhaps the hottest bat on the club besides Bleday for the last month while, more often than not, occupying the other outfield corner – that’s because 3B/1B/DH have been seized by Sal Stewart, Eugenio Suarez, and Nathaniel Lowe.

Even if the Reds were to call time on Matt McLain at 2B for a bit, sliding Steer to 2B and calling up Marte for a corner OF spot might not be the most direct move. Arroyo has hit so damn well and is deserving of his own shot at big league pitching, and he’s a more natural fit for 2B in that alignment. And if Dunn begins to struggle as big league pitching gets more of a book on him, there’s a real chance he still sticks around as the 26th man due to his defense and speed while the club turns CF back over to TJ Friedl once more in hopes that the latter can fully shrug off the slump he began the 2026 deeply within.

So, the 24 year old Marte sure looks like he’s going to have to marinate with Louisville for a while longer, barring some catastrophe. And if that’s still the case come July, we’ll find out if there’s another team out there who, during trade season, might have bigger eyes for the future of Marte than the Reds do – especially if it means the Reds get something for a playoff push they can more readily use in 2026.

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a fun series against the Red Sox where we saw the bats go crazy twice and completely silent once. The Braves will now take their elite offense to Cincinnati and face the back end of the Red’s rotation.

Today Grant Holmes and his 3.78 ERA will face off against Chris Paddack who has yet to bring home his first victory and has a 6.86 ERA. It is still early enough in the season that ERA can be at least a bit deceiving, but the Braves do look primed to do some damage with the bats today.

Grant Holmes has had an up and down season thus far and a lot of it has to do with him not being able to stay effective after seeing the lineup after two times through, which is why you are seeing pitchers like Didier Fuentes being on the ready every time he pitches.

It could be argued that Holmes may have started to turn a corner in a positive direction. Last start he lasted five innings and struck out ten hitters to only two walks against the then MLB leader in runs scored (Nationals). He did give up two solo shots on six hits though. His start before that looked promising too with 6.0 innings of zero run ball against the Red Sox where he struck out four and walked one on five hits.

His underlying metric show that his expected ERA (xERA) is 4.17 which is not terrible and not too far off from his actual ERA. What is concerning though is that hitters have a hard-hit rate of 44.4 percent, which is good for bottom 19.0 percent of qualified pitchers.

No one on the Reds has more than seven at-bats against Holmes in their careers, but most of the players that have faced him have had success. Of the nine hitters to have faced him, six of them have an average of .333 or better. Friedl is the clear front runner in terms of success. In four at-bats, he has two HRs.

It could have probably been guessed already, but Chris Paddack has had some poor luck. Although his xERA is not desirable at 4.32, it is much better than his 6.86 actual ERA. One area that may give the Braves trouble is he is able to get hitters to chase the ball out of the zone 33.7 percent of the time, which is good for top 19.0 percent of qualified pitchers. The Braves have a few players like Albies, Harris, and Riley who are notorious for chasing the ball out of the zone.

Mike Yastrzemski leads the team with twenty-five at-bats against Paddack and has had no problem being successful. He has three HRs, a .400 average, and a 1.324 OPS in that span. No other Braves player has more than eleven at-bats against Paddack. It will be interesting to see if Smith gets the DH start today because he has a .182 average in those eleven at-bats.

First pitch is at 6:40 pm EDT.

Game Info

Game Time: Friday, May 29th, 6:40 pm EDT

Location: Great American Ball Park, , Cincinnati, OH

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

The Rangers won their first championship in 2023, in part by spending a lot on free agents. But they had to pay the piper, and since then they have been a middling team around .500, missing the playoffs in each of the last two seasons.

Kansas City Royals (22-34) vs. Texas Rangers (25-31) at Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX

Royals: 3.77 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 4.61 runs allowed/game (21st)

Rangers: 3.84 runs scored/game (25th), 3.93 runs allowed/game (8th)

The Rangers are hitting .230 as a team, tied for fifth-worst in baseball. Joc Pederson is hitting .314/.435/.627 with four home runs in his last 20 games. Pederson is hitting .300/.338/.600 in 14 games against the Royals, his best numbers against any team. He is just 2-for-19 (.105) in his career against Seth Lugo, but has homered twice in 29 plate appearances against Michael Wacha.

Josh Jung is hitting .377/.435/.597 at home. Catcher Danny Jansen is hitting .128/.255/.277 in 16 games in the month of May. Alejandro Osuna hits 50.8 percent of balls on the ground. The Rangers have made fewer outs on the bases than any team in baseball. Texas is without starters Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith, and Corey Seager, who are all on the Injured List.

The Rangers acquired MacKenzie Gore in a big trade with the Nationals after he put up a 3.1 rWAR season last year. He exited his May 18 start after one inning with lat nightness, but returned earlier last weekend to give up just one hit in six innings against the Angels. Gore has a reverse split this year and in his career, with lefties hitting him better than righties.

Kumar Rocker was a highly touted pitcher at Vanderbilt that the Mets famously did not sign after drafting him and viewing his medicals. He had Tommy John surgery, and struggled in 14 starts last year, but may be turning a corner this year. He tossed back-to-back scoreless starts before giving up four runs in five innings in his last start against the Astros. He relies heavily on a sinker/slider combo that nets a 53 percent groundball rate.

Jack Leiter was Rocker’s teammate at Vanderbilt and was the #2 overall selection in the 2021 draft. He earned Rookie of the Year votes after posting a 3.86 ERA in 29 starts last year. He throws some heat with a 96.7 mph fastball that opponents are hitting just .205 against.

The Rangers’ bullpen has a 3.10 ERA, fourth-lowest in baseball, despite the third-lowest strikeout rate. Lefty Jacob Latz has been the primary closer, converting six of eight opportunities, while former Royals pitcher Jakob Junis had three saves in April. Lefty Tyler Alexander has a 51.4 percent groundball rate. Lefties are hitting .257/.333/.543 against lefty reliever Jalen Beeks.

This weekend will be a homecoming for Royals star Bobby Witt Jr., who grew up in the Dallas area, the son of a former Rangers pitcher. The Royals have lost 10 of 15 games at Globe Life Park since it opened in 2020. They took six of seven from the Rangers last year, and will need that kind of performance this weekend to turn their season around.

Tonight is the 58th Cubs game of the 2026 season and finally, finally the team will be facing its biggest rival, the St. Louis Cardinals.

On the one hand, you shouldn’t have to go through 35 percent of the season before facing that biggest rival. On the other hand, this means that 13 of the Cubs’ next 68 games will be against the Cardinals. On the other other hand, that means the Cubs won’t face the Cardinals after Aug. 14, the 125th game of the season.

That all feels wrong. Bring back the unbalanced schedule.

For more on the Cardinals, here’s Doc Holliday, manager of our SB Nation Cardinals site Viva el Birdos, who sent me 11 key points about our division rivals.

1. JJ Wetherholt has one of the best batting eyes the Cubs will compete against this year. He’s averaging seeing 18 pitches per game and will be the Cardinals leadoff man for years to come.
2. The Ivan Herrera catching experiment isn’t working. He has yet to throw out a runner, but his bat continues to be vital.
3. Jordan Walker is for real. He not only got off to a hot start, but then made successful adjustments after pitchers adjusted to him being a threat. He might be the most dangerous hitter in the National League right now.
4. Nolan Gorman is still Nolan Gorman. He’s been a low .200’s BA hitter and he’s still a low .200’s BA hitter and his power numbers don’t compensate for the lack of contact.
5. Michael McGreevy is likely the “ace” of the Cardinals rotation right now. He has Greg Maddux-ish tendencies and knows how to move the ball around the zone and grab corners.
6. Matthew Liberatore has struggled to establish himself. He can be lock-down for four innings, but fall apart in the fifth. Or, as was the case Monday against the Brewers, have a terrible first inning, then be lights out for the next four.
7. The Cardinals are relentless in their approach and have notched numerous comeback wins. They’re young and don’t know they’re supposed to be losing right now.
8. The bullpen is problematic. Riley O’Brien started the year with over a dozen saves, but has been hittable his last couple of appearances. Ryne Stanek has had flashes of being good, but he’s wild and has lost more games than he’s helped win. Gordon Graceffo has been a relatively solid middle relief arm, but Justin Bruihl and Matt Svanson remain question marks.
9. Bryan Torres is a great story – in the minors for a decade and had two hits including a home run in his first game. He tried to quit, but his mother talked him out of it.
10. The Cardinals fan base has started grumbling about Oli Marmol’s use of the rotation and bullpen. He dropped Brycen Mautz into Monday’s game as a middle innings reliever in a tight 3-1 game against the Brewers for his major league debut and it did not end well. Our community is hot that Oli dropped this guy into the fire of a game against division leader for his first major league appearance.
11. Overall, St. Louis has become a dangerous team to play. Their offense can be explosive and starters like McGreevy, Dustin May and Andre Pallante are starting to find their groove.

Fun facts

As mentioned above, after a mere 57 other games, more than one third of the season, the Cubs finally will face the Cardinals for the first time this year.

They closed out last season against one another, with the Cubs sweeping three games at Wrigley Field. They have not squared off at St. Louis since the Cardinals won the rubber game of a series on Aug. 10. The Cubs have played 102 games since then.

The Cubs’ 2,526 games vs. the Cardinals are their second most against any opponent, after 2,629 vs. the Pirates. In all those games, the Cubs have outscored the Cards by just 19 runs, 11,045 to 11,026. They lead the rivalry, 1,281 wins to 1,226, but are 566-675 at St. Louis. The 675 losses are their second most on the road, after 714 at Pittsburgh.

Last year, the Cubs were 3-4 at St. Louis, splitting a four-game series and losing two of three in the other. They were 1-1 and 2-2 in 2024. They last won a series, 3-1, July 27-30, 2023.

The Cubs have not swept a series at St. Louis since Sept. 13-15, 2010. This is their 40th series there since then. They have been swept in 10 of the previous 39, most recently Sept. 2-4, 2022. One of the sweeps was four games and another was two.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (4-5, 4.04 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 3.85 FIP) vs. Andre Pallante, RHP (5-4, 3.76 ERA, 1.255 WHIP, 4.42 FIP)

Saturday: Ben Brown, RHP (1-2, 2.01 ERA, 0.985 WHIP, 2.27 FIP) vs. Kyle Leahy, RHP (5-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.579 WHIP, 4.95 FIP)

Sunday: Jordan Wicks, LHP (0-1, 16.62 ERA, 2.308 WHIP, 5.15 FIP) vs. Matthew Liberatore, LHP (2-3, 4.76 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 4.66 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Saturday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Fox-TV (regional — coverage map, scroll down to the bottom of that link). A reminder that if you subscribe to MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings, you can watch this game via those services even if it’s not on the Fox affiliate in your market. Announcers: Eric Collins, John Smoltz and Ken Rosenthal.

Sunday: 6:20 p.m. CT, NBC/Peacock (full national broadcast, no blackouts). Announcers: Jason Benetti, Jim Deshaies and Albert Pujols.

Prediction

The Cardinals have lost four straight and six of seven and maybe the pixie dust is wearing off. The Cubs offense looks good after the last two games in Pittsburgh.

Two of three.

Up next

The Cubs have Monday off, then return to Wrigley Field for a three-game series against the Athletics beginning Tuesday evening.

After another losing homestand the Red Sox thankfully head on the road, where they can win.

Welcome to Cleveland.

First place in the AL Central, the Guardians are 33-25 on the season. They’re three game in front of the Chicago White Sox. Not a typo. You were expecting the Detroit Tigers? They’re sitting at 22-35. The Red Sox are 23-32. So it really could be worse. Without Tarik Skubal the Tigers are in free fall. The Sox unfortunately don’t have such a linchpin player who can return. Well, maybe Roman Anthony or Garrett Crochet, but neither are quite the key Skubal is. Cleveland is scoring 4.14 runs per game. That’s below average but better than Boston’s 3.85 mark. They’re allowing 3.91 runs per game from the pitching unit, also just better than Boston’s 4.02.

It’s that time in the rotation. Brayan Bello will be pitching. This time with the newly-recalled Tyler Samaniego as his opener. With any luck, Typical Bello Dazzlement will appear for the bulk innings. Samaniego last appeared on 5/23 with a scoreless, hitless inning against the Twins. The Guardians have Slade Cecconi, a righthander with a 5.18 ERA facing the nearly unstoppable Bulk Bello. Over 11 starts he’s been up and down and up and down allowing 6 runs, 4 runs, 6 runs, 4 runs, 5 runs, around his better outings. Seattle, Atlanta, Houston, Toronto, and Oakland Sacramento all hit him hard. Those would be some of the better offenses in the league.

Sonny Gray is coming off his first real down outing in weeks. He lasted just 4.0 innings against the Minnesota Twins on Sunday. He’s struck out 6, 9, and 4 over his past three starts of 6.0, 6.0, and 4.0 innings. He’d been in a groove since coming off the IL. He’ll face Parker Messick, a 25-year-old southpaw. Over his last five starts he allowed 2 earned runs or less four times. And he’s struck out 32 in those 28 innings.

With any luck the Sox have one or two wins already before Sunday. A series win in the bag heading into game three would be wonderful. Ranger Suarez, who was in a groove, promptly fell out of it against the Atlanta Braves. The five earned runs allowed last time out were a season high. He’ll be looking to bounce back. In one matchup last season, Suarez didn’t allow a run over 7.0 innings. Tanner Bibbe was roughed up for 7 runs last time out and gave up 8 runs to the Braves in April. Aside from a four-run, 4.0 outing against the Royals all the rest of his outings were 3 runs or less. The Guardians won his first start of the year and then lost the next 9, won against Detroit and then lost to the Nationals.

José Ramírez is off to his normal tricks: 8 homers, 20 steals and he’s an iron man with 58 games played.

Rookie Travis Bazzana is off to .302/.407/.458 start.

Angel Martínez has 9 home runs.

New catcher Patrick Bailey, acquired from the San Francisco Giants, is hitting .120/.185/.280. He’s called for 44 challenges from behind the plate and won 26.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, May 29: Tyler Samaniego (1.04 ERA / 3.88 FIP) vs. Slade Cecconi (5.18 ERA / 4.67 FIP)

Saturday, May 30: Sonny Gray (3.27 ERA / 3.66 FIP) vs. Parker Messick (2.24 ERA / 3.04 FIP)

Sunday, May 31: Ranger Suarez (3.02 ERA / 3.29 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibbe (4.57 ERA / 4.85 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, May 29: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, May 30: 4:10 PM ET on NESN

Sunday, May 31: 1:40 PM ET on NESN

The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a frustrating sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers and left some of us feeling like the magic could be gone. It is a tough time to happen as the Cardinals are in the middle of a long stretch of games against the NL Central with the Chicago Cubs coming to town this evening.

Of course, the Cubs have been going through trying times of their own ever since Chicagoland MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong decided to partake in some fan banter. After having two separate winning streaks of at least 10 games, the Cubs continued their streaky season with a more fun to watch 10-game losing streak. As good as it was to see, I am personally glad they were able to take the last two games in Pittsburgh because Chicago is not a team that is bad enough to lose 14 in a row.

Since most of our focus has been on the Cardinals season and when Pete Crow-Armstrong messes up, I decided to have some Cubs content guys on the podcast to break the team down a little further. Paul “Crawly” Dzien from Fly the W podcast and Jared Wyllys from CHGO joined to talk about the roller coaster of a season that has seen the Cubs go on two separate 10-game winning streaks before just ending a 10-game losing streak. Even with the ups and downs, neither of them are overly scared about this series or the Cardinals in general.

Previewing the Cubs and Cardinals series with a rivalry flashback

Midway through the pod, I tried baiting the guys into saying they were worried about the Cardinals getting their Devil Magic back from the Brewers, but neither Jim nor I could get them to admit it. Jared and Crawly are more focused on their team and their own roster holes instead of the Cardinals or even the Brewers. Since that did not work to get their blood boiling, we wrapped up the show by sharing our favorite and most annoying moments from the best rivalry in baseball. Make sure you tune into those and drop your memories in the comments!

There may be some slight changes in the podcast posting schedule in the near future and I will update you all as those come. I appreciate all the love and support so far, please keep liking, subscribing, and sharing the show. It really does help when you guys click those buttons, so send it along to a Cubs fan in your life and lets get this rivalry heated again! Thanks as always!

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The Mariners finally put together a complete series with every part of the roster firing on all cylinders. That it came against the division leading Athletics and led to a sweep, launching the M’s into first place in the AL West makes it all the sweeter. The team still isn’t above .500 yet — it’s a weird year in the West — but they’ve got momentum on their side and are staring down at all their rivals once again.

The Diamondbacks entered this season in a weird place. They haven’t been able to build off of their surprise World Series appearance back in 2023 despite investing a bunch of money into their roster the last few years. The issue is that Corbin Burnes and a bunch of their best relievers got injured and the rest of the pitching staff wasn’t deep enough to cover for those absences. That led to a pretty dramatic sell off last summer, though all of the team’s core pieces were left intact. That’s the reason why they’ve been so competitive this year — it really helps when your two superstars carry the offense through the first few months of the season. Those injured pitchers should be returning sometime around midseason which means the team is actually in a good place right now to take advantage of those reinforcements in the summer.

The Diamondbacks have a well-rounded lineup anchored by two superstars. Ketel Marte has been one of the hottest hitters on the planet the past few weeks; since May 9, he’s collected 29 hits in just 17 games, raising his season wRC+ up to 124. He had really struggled to start the season so this hot streak seems like his results correcting themselves to where his peripherals said he should be. Over that same period, Corbin Carroll has collected 22 hits, though that’s a pretty normal output since he’s been excellent throughout the season. Geraldo Perdomo enjoyed a huge breakout last year, though he’s struggled in his follow up season. He’s still got a fantastic approach at the plate, but the power that fueled his breakout has all but disappeared.

Arizona has also promoted their two top prospects recently; Ryan Waldschmidt has taken over in center field after the team designated Alek Thomas for assignment and Tommy Troy is covering for the injured Lourdes Gurriel Jr. On the other end of the age spectrum, Nolan Arenado has played well in his first season in Arizona, producing his best offensive output since 2022, and Ildemaro Vargas is enjoying a breakout season at the ripe age of 34.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Zac Gallen suffered through the worst season of his career last year, his final year of team control before hitting the open market as a free agent. It could not have been worse timing. With a qualifying offer attached to him, he received very little interest from other teams and wound up re-signing with Arizona in February. Things haven’t been any better this year. Even at his peak, Gallen survived not through overpowering stuff but with a deep repertoire, command, and deception. Without much margin for error to begin with, it certainly seems like all those tricks have failed him the past two years. 

Ryne Nelson possesses a phenomenal fastball. He throws it with nearly perfect backspin and it has a ton of carry at the top of the zone as a result. When batters aren’t swinging underneath it, they’re popping it up or hitting lazy fly balls. Unfortunately, one plus pitch is about all he has. His secondary pitches are average at best and he relies far too heavily on his heater to get outs. His slider has shown a little bit of promise, though he just doesn’t use it enough to help him earn strikeouts. His other problem is that he doesn’t really have a pitch to keep left-handed batters at bay; he dabbled with a changeup in the past but it didn’t stick. Now he’s using a cutter to try and keep batters off his four-seamer, but they’re just crushing the cutter when they see it instead.

After being traded to the Rangers at the trade deadline last summer, Merrill Kelly came right back and re-signed with the Diamondbacks this offseason. A nerve issue in his back sidelined him this spring and he was forced to ramp up on a delayed timeline. He wound up missing the first three weeks of the season. He had trouble with his command and feel once he was back on the mound, which is a big problem because his command and feel are essentially the only way he’s been able to be successful throughout his career. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but knows how to use his deep repertoire to keep batters off balance when he can hit his spots. His best pitch is a hard changeup that dives off the table and a slider that is getting a lot more use this year.

The Big Picture:

After failing their test against the Mariners, the Athletics now host the Yankees for three games this weekend. The Astros took three of four from the Rangers this week and swapped places with them in the standings. Despite their early season struggles, Houston is now only 2.5 games back in the division thanks to a 7-3 record over their last 10 games. The Astros host the Brewers this weekend while the Rangers host the Royals.

Heading into the 2026 campaign, we all knew who Austin Wells was as a hitter. His wRC+ ranged between 94 and 107 every season from 2023 to 2025, and he developed 20-homer power last year with a .436 slugging percentage. He racked up 3.5 fWAR in 2024 and earned a 3.0 mark last campaign.

He has regressed offensively this year, though, struggling to the tune of a .176/.288/.275 line, just four homers in 153 plate appearances, a 62 wRC+, and 0.4 fWAR, mostly fueled by his still steady defensive contributions. Wells has been particularly bad in May, slashing an unfathomable .148/.212/.197 with an 18 (!) wRC+. He has a 7.6 percent walk rate and a horrible 37.9 percent strikeout rate this month, with a .049 isolated power and just one extra-base hit, a home run.

Of course, everything starts at the plate. That elevated strikeout rate makes it virtually impossible for a hitter to succeed, let alone someone who hasn’t really been showing home-run power. In May, Wells has a 14 percent swinging strike rate (SwStr%), higher than his 12.5 percent mark for his career. In addition to the whiffs, his contact rate has plummeted to 71.2 percent this month, down from 74.9 percent in his MLB tenure.

If we examine his season numbers as a whole, not just May, it does seem that he is being too passive at times. He is sporting a career-high 14.8 percent called strike rate, and a career-low 46.9 percent swing percentage. He is also swinging at pitches inside the zone at a 67.3 percent rate, much lower than his career mark of 72 percent and last year’s 71.5 percent.

On top of that, even though his chase percentage is actually marginally better this year than last, he has had some ugly swings out of the zone that often result in strikeouts. It’s like he gives up on at-bats at times, or is not fully focused:

As you can see in the videos above, down-and-away breaking balls are murdering Wells, who has looked helpless with two strikes on the count. This is probably why he has been so vulnerable against lefties, with a horrible -3 wRC+ this season against them as opposed to a 97 mark versus righties. Basically, if you are a southpaw, or a right-hander with a good changeup or splitter with arm-side movement, you have the upper hand against Wells.

Of course, there’s also the luck factor, which can’t be completely ignored. Wells’ .046 gap between his .259 wOBA and his .305 xwOBA is the 13th largest in the entire league among qualified hitters. This doesn’t mean he has been good, but that’s not the case, but his numbers should be a bit better based on his quality (and quantity) of contact.

It’s not like it’s all been bad with Wells. His 13.7 percent walk rate ranks in the 88th percentile among MLB hitters, and he ranks in the 90th percentile in Fielding Run Value, per Statcast. He remains a phenomenal framer and a good defensive catcher, not to mention a patient hitter willing to walk. However, he needs to hit if he’s going to remain the Yankees’ starting catcher in 2026 and beyond. It’s that simple.

The Yankees can surely tolerate a wRC+ between 85 and 95 if it means a catcher makes the difference behind the dish, which is the case with Wells. A 62 mark, however, is hard to stomach. Unless the Yankees are willing to start using Ben Rice at catcher more often, which hasn’t happened at all this year, or give more playing time to J.C. Escarra, they have no choice but to stick with Wells through his offensive struggles.

The Nats were unable to pull off the sweep in Cleveland, dropping the game Thursday 3-2, but in 2026 Nationals fashion, they went down swinging, scoring one in the 9th and getting the tying run to second base. The club heads home now after an exciting road trip in which they went 4-2, beating two division-leading ballclubs in two series. There to greet the Nats at home is a Padres team in a playoff spot, but who have 4 games in a row.

The Padres have played good baseball this season, but if you were to just look at how their stars were playing, you probably wouldn’t believe so. The 2 best regulars in the Padres lineup this season have been Gavin Sheets and Miguel Andujar, as Jackson Merrill has regressed once again in his junior campaign, Father Time is catching up to Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr has amazingly gone 54 games into the season without homering, leaving him and Nasim Nunez as the only two qualified hitters to not have homered yet.

Pitching has kept the Padres alive while their stars falter, specifically the bullpen, as their team’s relief ERA of 3.07 ranks 2nd in baseball, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers. Mason Miller leads the charge with his sub-1 ERA, but others such as Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, Wandy Peralta, and more have stepped up and played their part as well.

Game One – Friday 6:45 PM EST

SDP: RHP Lucas Giolito (2-0, 2.70 ERA)

WSH: RHP Paxton Schultz (0-2, 5.30 ERA)

After going through the winter and Spring Training unsigned, Giolito finally found a home with the Padres back in April on a one-year deal. After taking a few weeks to ramp up, he’s been effective so far in his 2 starts for them, throwing 5 scoreless innings against the Athletics in his last start.

Paxton Schultz will open up tonight’s ballgame for the Nats, before handing things off to Andrew Alvarez for the bulk of the innings work. Outside of a 6-run barrage from the Mets, Schultz has been effective in May for the Nats, allowing 1 run in the other 8 1/3 innings of work, and tonight he will make his first opener appearance of the year.

Game Two- Saturday 4:05 PM EST

SDP: RHP Michael King (4-3, 2.76 ERA)

WSH: TBD (Probable: LHP Foster Griffin)

King has been the ace the Padres need this season, posting a dazzling 2.76 ERA in 11 starts. He got roughed up for 4 runs in 3 2/3 innings last time out versus the Athletics, so hopefully the Nats can do the same to him Saturday night.

The Nats have yet to announce their Saturday starter, but it will be Foster Griffin’s turn in the rotation. After back-to-back rough starts, Griffin refound his form in Atlanta, throwing 6 scoreless innings and earning the victory.

Game Three – Sunday 1:35 PM EST

SDP: RHP Griffin Canning (0-3, 7.54 ERA)

WSH: TBD (Probable: RHP Zack Littell, or an opener followed by Littell)

Griffin Canning gets the ball for the Padres on Sunday, and while the ERA may look rough, it mainly stems from 2 of his 5 starts so far this year going very poorly, allowing 6 runs in both. In his last 2 starts, Canning has allowed 3 runs each, so hopefully the Nats get to face the worse version of Canning on Sunday.

No Nats starter has been announced for Sunday’s ballgame either, but it will be Zack Littell’s turn in the rotation, meaning it will likely either be him or an opener followed by him. Littell had his best appearance of the year last time out and one of the biggest by a Nat all season, throwing 7 innings of one-run ball in Cleveland in a blowout, allowing an exhausted bullpen to take the day off.

They don’t hand out MVP awards for the NLDS. But I believe the most valuable player in the Phillies’ playoff series against the Dodgers in 2025 was Roki Sasaki.

After dominating in the Japanese Pacific League in 2024, the Phillies pursued the young pitcher. But the appeal of playing on the west coast with countryman Shohei Ohtani was too much for Sasaki to pass up, and he joined the Dodgers. Adding insult to injury, the Phillies actually helped facilitate the signing.

He was regarded as the top prospect in baseball before the season began, but injuries limited him to just eight starts. However, he rejoined the team in September, and was moved to the bullpen where he pitched two scoreless innings in relief.

Heading into the playoffs, the bullpen was regarded as the Dodgers’ only potential weakness, but the addition of a hard-throwing fresh pitcher helped cover up that flaw nicely. He closed out the first two games of the series, and then in the pivotal game four, he pitched three perfect innings, setting up the Dodgers’ 11th inning victory.

The Dodgers hoped that he would rejoin the team’s rotation in 2026 and build upon that performance, but he’s been far from dominant this season. He’s got a 4.93 ERA, mostly due to high walk totals.

He’s scheduled to face the Phillies on Saturday night. Can the Phillies get some modicum of revenge, or will he once again dominate their lineup?

Trivia

Last week’s answer: Aside from Citizens Bank Park and American Family Field, the park that Rhys Hoskins has homered in the most is New York’s Citi Field. (I’m not 100% sure, but I’m pretty sure he was the last Phillie to actually hit a home run there.) MG77 was correct!

This week’s question: Who was the only Phillie to record a hit against Roki Sasaki in the 2025 NLDS?

Additional thought about the series

It’s extremely frustrating that the Dodgers can get subpar performances from star hitters Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker and still be comfortably in first place. Because it’s the Dodgers, they just have Andy Pages step up and lead the National League in WAR.

And then there’s Shohei Ohtani. He’s having a good season, but it’s been a drop off from his numbers the past three years. (If he was on the Phillies, his .882 OPS might make some wonder if he was no longer elite.) The Phillies have done a good job keeping him in check in past matchups, and had the NLDS gone differently, his 1-18 performance in that series would have been the big story.)

His pitching may be receiving more attention than his hitting this season, since he has a 0.82 ERA. Some have said he’s been the best pitcher in baseball this season, but let’s not get carried away. Cristopher Sanchez has pitched 44.2 consecutive scoreless innings while Ohtani has pitched just 55 innings total.

They won’t face Ohtani on the mound this weekend, but they will presumably see him at the plate. Oddly, despite the Phillies’ overall success against Ohtani, Friday night’s starter Zack Wheeler hasn’t been able to get him out. Ohtani has reached base in five out his six plate appearances against Wheeler. So maybe it’s a good thing that Wheeler missed the playoffs last year? (Narrator: It was not a good thing.)

Despite garnering 14% of the vote in our alternative Player of the Game poll after the Braves were shut out in Boston, Carlos Carrasco has been designated for assignment for the third time this season. If the last two go-arounds are anything to go by, the minor league contract is piping-hot off the printer and his locker in Gwinnett is untouched, awaiting his return.

In all seriousness, his four innings of relief after Bryce Elder’s struggles on Wednesday were a gift that saved many of the arms in the bullpen. This is huge for our big three of Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias, who will be especially well-rested ahead of this three-game set in Cincinnati since they weren’t needed in yesterday’s blowout.

In his place, the Braves have recalled a fresh arm in righty Anthony Molina, who will join the club for his second stint this season. His lone outing came in Colorado, where he pitched two perfect innings (with one walk allowed) before being optioned back down to Triple-A.

No team has truly had the San Diego Padres’ number this year. The Philadelphia Phillies certainly did this week, becoming the first team of 2026 to sweep the Friars. Yet again, despite multiple scoring opportunities, the Padres couldn’t capitalize and found themselves unable to back starter Walker Buehler’s gem.

And Buehler did pitch a gem. He faced the minimum amount of batters before getting into the fifth inning, looking even better than Philadelphia ace Cristopher Sánchez (though the latter eventually won the duel).

This week has continued to prove true the belief that no matter how good your pitching is, you still need at least one run to win. The Padres have barely been able to get that lately. They’ll need to in order to right the ship against the Washington Nationals.

Taking the mound

Andrew Alvarez (WAS) v. Lucas Giolito (SD)

The 26-year-old Alvarez has been used sparingly by the Nats. He made his MLB debut in 2025, starting five games for Washington and pitching to a solid 2.31 ERA.

Alvarez has pitched in four games this year, though none of them has been a start. He’s got strikeout stuff, with 16 K’s racked up in just 12 2/3 innings pitched. The Padres will need to find a way to solve the young left-hander if they hope to put a stop to their recent losing streak.

Giolito has been a rotation stabilizer since joining San Diego’s rotation. He boats a 2.70 ERA after two starts. That’s honestly higher than it should be after looking stellar in both of his appearances.

The righty was signed to a small deal with the Friars after a prolonged free agency, and has only pitched 10 innings, but the upside is tantalizing. If he can limit Washington’s hot hitters like CJ Abrams and James Wood, Giolito will be well on his way to elite status.

Batter up!

Jackson Merrill looked completely different in Wednesday’s finale compared to Tuesday’s eyesore of a performance. He went 2-for-4 with a double and zero strikeouts after going 0-for-4 with two Ks on Tuesday. If that can last, him and Tatis could finally buoy this struggling Padres offense.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B
2. Miguel Andujar, DH
3. Gavin Sheets, 1B
4. Manny Machado, 3B
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS
6. Jackson Merrill, CF
7. Ramón Laureano, LF
8. Nick Castellanos, RF
9. Rodolfo Durán, C

Andujar and Sheets have been unproductive since posting incredible first halves in the month of May. If the two are able to turn things around, it would be a major boost for the floundering Friars.

Machado has been the same, though certainly much more pronounced. He’s batting just .169, though hit two home runs across the most recent homestand. His batting average across his last seven games is a measly .083.

Relief corps

With the game scoreless in the fifth inning and Philly threatening to score, San Diego turned to its vaunted bullpen. It did not work out. Adrian Morejon came in and allowed both of Buehler’s runners to score, gifting the Phillies a 2-0 lead that wouldn’t be relinquished.

After that, Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam and Ron Marinaccio pitched in relief. Though Marinaccio surrendered a homer, the bullpen was otherwise its usual sterling self.

With the off day on Thursday, all of the ‘pen will be rested and available for the first time in a while. But Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller, Wandy Peralta and Bradgley Rodriguez will be the most rested after not pitching since Tuesday.

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We're looking at even money (or better) plays for both of our favorite MLB picks heading into the final weekend of May.

Why should you back the Phillies tonight (vs. the Dodgers) and the Orioles against the Jays? Read on to find out!

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: BAL ML	+100
Jon Metler: PHI ML	+108

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Orioles moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

The Jays have the pressure of getting back to .500 today, but they’re also extremely shorthanded on the mound. Toronto is rolling with a bullpen game and is likely without its three best relievers in Tyler Rogers, Jeff Hoffman, and closer Louis Varland, all of whom pitched on back-to-back days — and Toronto hasn’t had a day off all week. Triple-A call-up Austin Voth will likely be asked to cover innings, and he owns a career 4.70 ERA across 360 MLB innings with 61 home runs allowed. This grades out as one of the biggest +EV plays on the board today, per THE BAT projections, which have a fair price around -188 on this moneyline. Reliever availability is a massive edge that doesn’t appear to be fully priced into the current number

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: MASN, SN1

Jon Metler's expert pick: Phillies moneyline

Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket

This one is pretty simple: If the market is giving me plus money on the Philadelphia Phillies with Zack Wheeler on the mound, I’m going to hit the button every time. The Phillies are trading around 48 cents on the moneyline, but I make them closer to 53-cent (-113) favorites in this matchup. The Dodgers are built around veteran hitters who excel at working counts, drawing walks, and capitalizing on mistakes for extra-base damage. The problem is: That approach doesn’t work nearly as well against Wheeler, who owns an elite 1.91 BB/9 this season and rarely gives lineups free opportunities on the bases. He forces teams to earn everything offensively, and he does it while pitching efficiently enough to work deep into games and limit exposure to the bullpen.

• Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Apple TV

More MLB best bets for today

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Someone has to win as the -127 favored Chicago Cubs, fresh off a 10-game losing streak, meet the St. Louis Cardinals, losers of the last four.

These teams are separated by a half game, with the Wild Card cutoff line between them, so as if a historic rivalry wasn’t enough, both teams will be looking at this as a crucial series.

For as close as these two teams are in record and trajectory, the odds seem to be much more heavily slanted. That’s why my Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks are starting with a St. Louis victory.

Who will win Cubs vs Cardinals today: Cardinals moneyline (+115)

The St. Louis Cardinals are underdogs despite being the home team and being better over the last 10.

Andre Pallante's improved pitch mix has paid dividends, and he's allowed just two runs across 12 2/3 innings over his last two starts. In an even matchup with a more reliable starter, I’d take St. Louis and the plus-money odds.

The Chicago Cubs start Shota Imanaga, coming off two starts where he allowed 15 runs and five homers in 10 1/3 innings. On offense, Chicago has been shut out almost as many times (4) as they’ve scored five (5) over the last 18 games.

COVERS INTEL: Historically, the fastball is the only one of Pallante’s pitches teams can hit, and he’s throwing it just 30% of the time, down from 44% last year. His breaking stuff is 93rd percentile, and he’s making batters guess wrong. They swing at pitches in the strike zone 63% of the time, down 5.2% from last year, and his chase rate has moved up 14 percentiles.  

Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-130)

Chicago scored 17 in winning the last two in Pittsburgh, but neither team has been hitting it well this month. After entering the month in the Top 5 in batting, the Cubs rank 14th in MLB at the plate in May. 

Their OPS of .652 is down 128 points, and they’re batting 11% below league average in May. St. Louis is two spots lower in the May rankings and has dropped 61 points in OPS. They’re also 8% under the league average.  

While Imanaga has struggled lately, his underlying metrics are still among baseball’s best. This Cubs bullpen has also been solid, with a 2.88 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the year.

Cubs vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -130 | Cardinals +110
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+135) | Cardinals +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Cubs vs Cardinals trend

The Cardinals have cashed the Under in 15 of their last 22 games for +9.5 units and a 39% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Cubs vs Cardinals and game info

Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries

Cubs vs Cardinals weather

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