Category: MLB

San Diego Padres centerfielder Jackson Merrill had a difficult sophomore season in the majors. A hamstring injury and a concussion severely impacted his ability to stay on the field, which in turn hurt his overall number.  However, as the 2025 season ended, Merrill got hot and showed signs of regaining his 2024 form that saw him finish in second place for National League Rookie of the Year. Even with a down season, the expectations for Merrill are high. He was picked as the fourth best centerfielder in the game by MLB Network on the Top 10 Center Fielders, Friday. Merrill slotted behind Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners), Wyatt Langford (Texas Rangers) and Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins.

Padres News:

• Spring Training is less than two weeks away and one of the top free agent pitchers, Framber Valdez, remains unsigned. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com lists his options of teams that could sign the left-hander, and he lists the Padres as one of those teams.
• Mason Milller came to San Diego from the Athletics at the 2025 trade deadline and wasted no time becoming a fan favorite. His mix of velocity and control was something that made Padres fans pay attention every time he came into the game. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune says Miller is the unquestioned closer in the bullpen for 2026 following the departure of Robert Suarez.
• Members of the Padres baseball team went to various schools and other places for their Padres Community Tour, which allowed the players to meet with various kids and fans to say thank you for their support and the get those same kids and fans fired up for the 2026 season.

Baseball News:

• The New York Yankees have taken criticism from their fans for their lack of activity prior to their reunion with Cody Bellinger. That appears to have been just the beginning as it was reported the Yankees are showing interest in Paul Goldschmidt and Nick Martinez.
• Former Yankees reliever David Robertson announced his retirement from MLB after 19 seasons in the league.
• The Kansas City Royals and their first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino avoided an arbitration after agreeing to a two-year contract worth more than $11 million, which could get close to $16 million.
• The Athletics continue to lock up a core group of players before they move into their new stadium in Las Vegas. The team announced a seven-year, $70 million extension with shortstop Jacob Wilson with a club option for 2033.

The Royals avoided a potential arbitration hearing with first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, signing him to a two-year deal Friday that will pay him $11 million and potentially up to $16 million with incentives, according to MLB.com reporter Anne Rogers.

Pasquantino had filed for arbitration for the first time, requesting a $4.5 million salary while the Royals had countered with $4 million. The contract covers his salary for 2026 and 2027. He would be eligible for arbitration again before the 2028 season, and would be eligible for free agency after that season.

Pasquantino reached career highs in several offensive categories in 2025, hitting .264/.323/.475, and his 32 home runs were the eighth-most in the American League, while he finished third with 113 RBI. He played in all but two games last year, and he was a finalist for a Silver Slugger Award at first base.

Pasquantino had expressed some fears about going to an arbitration hearing, posting on social media that, “I’m about to go into a room and hear how awful I am…” A typical hearing will feature the player making the case for why he compares favorably with similar players that make the salary he is requesting, while the team argues the player is not quite as good, with the arbitration panel selecting one side or the other, not a number in the middle.

The Royals still have one remaining arbitration case with Kris Bubic. He has asked for $6.15 million while the team has offered $5.15 million.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are on track to pay at least 160 million dollars of MLB competitive balance tax in 2026. In all, ten teams will be charged close to 500 million dollars in 2026. And it’s only January 31st. There are some big free agents still available. We’ve been over the salary cap and floor and overspending and the poor teams at the bottom. But we haven’t discussed one aspect, however. Where does all that money go?

Three and a half million dollars go to player benefits. After that, half of that money goes into baseball players IRAs. The other half goes to teams that didn’t violate the tax threshold. But where does that money go, exactly?

It is placed into a non-public discretionary fund. It’s a slush fund for lousy teams. Reportedly, some of last year’s tax went to reimburse teams that were affected by the RSN bankruptcy and non-payment of television rights fees. But outside of that, it’s a closed book. But one thing is for certain, it’s going to teams that aren’t funding their payrolls as well as the Dodgers, Mets, and to a smaller extent, the Braves.

So why are the Dodgers and other big spenders paying for bad baseball? And that’s exactly what is happening. And when you subsidize something, you are going to get more of it. Why are they keeping the Marlins and Pirates and Rockies afloat? It looks like corporate welfare. Is that what we’re doing here? Is there something else we could do here like remove/replace the soft salary cap? Or keep it and:

• Build a children’s hospital
• Fund high school baseball in poorer areas
• Fund free summer ticket packages for high school scholars
• Fund new stadiums and refuse public funds

I’m sorry if I don’t shed tears for the owners. But there’s many worthy causes that could be helped with that money. Major sports franchises cost money. If they can’t fund if correctly, sell it to someone who can and let their fans benefit. The NFL’s Seattle Seahawks are going up for sale. It might sell for seven to eight billion dollars. So why wouldn’t someone want to buy the smaller MLB teams if the current owners don’t want to compete?

Think about the bullpen that the Phillies were putting together when 2025 was beginning. Names like Jose Ruiz and Carlos Hernandez were prominent. Stuff was hard to find. In short, it wasn’t a good bullpen.

Fast forward to now: the bullpen is probably the strength of this team. Is it the best way to construct a roster? Probably not. Had they had their druthers, the Phillies would rather their offense or starting pitching lead the way. That still may become a reality. They do have a few top level starters in the rotation with another on his way back from injury. The offense has some potential to have some MVP level seasons from a few starters, but if we were being honest right now, the bullpen is very good.

So, what’s the best order in terms of leverage when considering the bullpen? Obviously, in the highest leverage situation, Jhoan Duran would be the one who gets the ball (all things being equal). After that, situational preference would rule the day. But if this were in a vacuum, what is the best order?

The Guardians put out a list of non-roster players invited to big league spring training. That list was incomplete. The complete list is below:

Pitchers:

Pedro Avila, RHP, Tanner Burns, RHP, Aaron Davenport, RHP, Trenton Denholm, RHP, Will Dion, LHP, Carlos Hernandez, RHP, Codi Heuer, LHP, Jack Leftwich, RHP, Tommy Mace, RHP, Jake Miller, RHP, Steven Perez, LHP, Trevor Stephan, RHP, and Ryan Webb, LHP.

Catchers:

Cameron Barstad, LHH, Jacob Cozart, LHH, Kody Huff, RHH, Cooper Ingle, LHH, and Dom Nunez, RHH.

Infielders:

Travis Bazzana, LHH, Dayan Fries, SH, Carter Kieboom, RHH, Milan Tolentino, LHH, and Ralphy Velazquez, LHH.

Outfielders:

Wuilfredo Antunez, LHH, Stuart Fairchild, RHH, and Alfonsin Rosario, RHH.

A great list! I thought maybe Kahl Stephen would be on it, but folks come over from minor league camp regularly so expect to see him as well.

We’ve had a pair of top-100 prospect lists drop in each of the last two weeks, with between four and seven Dodgers included on those lists. But with those list also comes further analysis of the minor leagues, both with individual players and farm systems as a whole.

Taiwanese outfielder Ching-Hsien Ko was one of 11 prospects who just missed making the top 100 at The Athletic, with Keith Law very high on the 19-year-old who ended last season with Class-A Rancho Cucamonga: “Ko is going to end up hitting for power, though, as he’s 6-foot-3 and already north of his listed 215, with quick hands and good rhythm to the swing.”

Jackson Ferris was ranked the No. 126 prospect in baseball by Kiley McDaniel at ESPN, who praised the left-hander as one of a handful of pitchers who could someday carry a heavy major league workload. “He’ll probably need to take one more step forward in stuff or command to actually hit 200 innings in the big leagues, but the ceiling is there,” McDaniel wrote.

The Athletic and ESPN also this week ranked farm systems, with the Dodgers ranked No. 2 in the former (in the top tier along with the Milwaukee Brewers and Seattle Mariners) and rated fourth in the latter.

“They aren’t the No. 1 farm system in the sport anymore, but they are tied for first with the Rays in ‘quality depth,’ which is just the total number of prospects they have graded above 40 FV [Future Value],” McDaniel wrote at ESPN.

We’ll have more prospect talk soon as Baseball Prospectus is expected to unveil their top-101 list next week.

Battery of moves

The Mets on Thursday signed longtime Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes to a minor league contract with a non-roster invitation to spring training, and also signed one-time Dodgers reliever Craig Kimbrel to a minors deal as well. Should Barnes reach the majors with New York, he’ll join a surprisingly large list of catchers to play for both the Dodgers and Mets.

That group includes Mike Piazza, Gary Carter, Todd Hundley, Paul Lo Duca, Sandy Alomar Jr., Rod Barajas, Gary Bennett, Henry Blanco, Chris Cannizzaro, Travis d’Arnaud, Jerry Grote, Brent Mayne, Jason Phillips, Joe Pignatano, Norm Sherry, Rick Wilkins, and Tom Wilson.

We’ve broken down most of the notable free agent pitchers still left on the board this offseason, but one the Detroit Tigers have at least checked in on that we haven’t covered yet is right-hander Nick Martinez. The 35-year-old just spent two seasons starting for the Cincinnati Reds, and while his stuff doesn’t wow you, he knows how to pitch and get results. At this point that’s probably all the Tigers are really looking for with spring training now just over two weeks away.

Over those two seasons with the Reds, Martinez has put together a very nice 3.83 ERA across 308 innings of work. His strikeout rate is just 18.5 percent, well below average for a major league starter, but his 4.8 percent walk rate is outstanding. Just as impressive is a home run rate of just 1.0 HR/9, despite the fact that Martinez isn’t a big ground ball guy, instead getting a pretty even mix of fly balls and grounders, and was working in Great American Ballpark. Martinez made 42 starts in those two seasons, but had 82 appearances overall.

This is another feature the Tigers are no doubt intrigued by. You’re getting a solid backend starter who has smoothly moved between roles as required for the past few years, and generally been quite good out of the bullpen. Of course, other teams like that flexibility too. Jon Heyman has reported that the Yankees have checked in on Martinez recently, and they’re not alone.

There’s a pool of eight to ten starting pitchers left in free agency who seem certain to get a major league deal. Only Framber Valdez is the proven frontline starter of that group, but there are plenty of solid starters with some upside remaining. Martinez doesn’t really stand out among them except for that versatility, but that trait may create a competitive, if small in scale, market for him over the next few weeks. If he’s really set on pitching for a more star studden contender than the Tigers, he’s probably going to have that opportunity. Let’s look at Martinez anyway.

The Miami, Florida native was originally the 18th round pick for the Rangers way back in 2011 out of Fordham College. He broke in with the major league club in 2014. Martinez had some success over the next few years, but really cratered in 2017 and ultimately pitched for the Nippon Ham-Fighters and the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks before the Padres picked him up for the 2022-2023 seasons. He was much improved, and after both years, he exercised player options and tested free agency, and the Reds plucked him on a two-year deal the second time around.

As a starter in 2025, Martinez posted a 2.61 ERA across 20 2/3 innings of work, while his 4.72 ERA as a starter covered 145 innings of his 165 2/3 total innings worked. Still, his 4.32 FIP as a starter, versus his 4.39 FIP in relief, says that the distinction may not really be that signficant. Martinez gave up a much higher rate of home runs in a starting role as you’d expect. It’s a deep mix of pitches, but he’s not overpowering. Still, the limited walks and plentiful weak contact often kept the damage limited even on off nights.

Martinez’s most used offering last year was his 89.1 mph cutter, but he throws similar amounts of his 92.5 mph fourseamer and sinker. He used the fouresamer 20.7 percent, and the sinker 17.1 percent, so it’s just hard for hitters to know which is coming from pitch to pitch. He’ll throw sliders at 84.9 mph,and curveballs at 79.8 mph, but the better pitch is his 81 mph changeup, and he uses that as much as both breaking balls combined.

That’s a deep, six pitch mix, and the fact that he posts well below average walk rates commanding six different offerings is pretty impressive. It also makes it very hard for hitters to guess what’s coming from pitch to pitch, and so he limits home runs well until they get at least a second look at him.

None of these pitches grade as plus, but from year to year they’re all roughly average offerings. The one exception in 2025 was the fourseamer, which did get hit a little harder than usual. Still, Martinez’s velocity has been pretty consistent throughout his career, particularly the last two seasons. There’s no sign that he’s losing anything, and at the same time his walk rates and overall strike throwing have gotten quite a bit better than his career averages.

If this all sounds pretty familiar, yes Tyler Holton certainly comes to mind. While the Tigers’ lefty stalwart is more of a ground ball pitcher, the style is very similar. Employ a deep mix that can be tailored to either-handed hitters, and command everything to a well above average degree. Martinez is basically a right-handed Tyler Holton with a lot more starting experience.

A pitcher like this can really tie a pitching staff together and they’re in need of some reinforcement. Martinez has a lot more experience as a starter in recent years, but if things somehow pan out perfectly and the Tigers don’t need him to start, now you’ve got a right-hander and a lefty in the pen that can get anyone out and go more than three outs whenever required.

Martinez presumably wants a shot at a starting gig, and the Tigers can provide at least that opportunity. But he’s also been through all the wars and is very much the type who does whatever is required to see his team win. After struggling some early in his career with the Texas Rangers, Martinez moved to Japan and spent the next four years perfectly his crafty stylings in the NPB. He returned with an extra mph of velo on his fastball that he’s lost the past two years, but his ERA marks the past four seasons are 3.47, 3.43, 3.10, and 4.45 in 2025.

The consistent results are impressive even if his individual pitches don’t wow you. ZIPS projections estimates a 2.1 fWAR 2026 season for Martinez in which he throws 138 innings, splitting time evenly between starting and relief, with a 4.26 ERA. That projection is roughly as good as any starter available in free agency not named Framber Valdez.

Certainly for 2026, Martinez’s versatility looks extremely appealing as the Tigers may experiment with any of Drew Anderson, Troy Melton, and possibly Keider Montero, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Ty Madden and more in varying degrees in their rotation. Martinez would take that job himself, at least to start the season. If he struggled and a better option presented itself, he can move right back to the bullpen where he’s been outstanding the past few years. A team needs a lot of pitchers to cover starts throughout the season, but it’s a lot easier if you can option pitchers or flex some of them to the bullpen as needed. No doubt Martinez expects to start, but unlike signing most of the other starters available, it’s easier to just give him some time in the pen if he gets off to a rough start in the rotation.

The Reds paid Martinez $26 million over his two years there. He’ll cost more now, particularly as the Tigers may have to lure him away from other interested parties as the starting pitching market thins out over the next few weeks. Still it would be a pretty wise expenditure. It helps that unlike say, Zac Gallen, there’s no qualifying offer attached. It also helps that Martinez has been extremely durable for years. With the Tigers rotation looking like a shell of itself beyond 2026, a two-year deal to Martinez helps fortify the pitching staff now and for 2026 at a pretty reasonable price.

It’s not terribly exciting, but Martinez is generally more valuable than his modest reputation might suggest. With Chris Fetter game planning, and a catcher upgrade in Dillon Dingler, a command artist like this could absolutely thrive in Detroit. Another frontline starter isn’t in the cards, and the front office may see Nick Martinez as the perfect fit for their needs. Landing him will take some committment.

Reese McGuire is now a Brewer. The Cubs have officially signed three players. There are still two to go.

NBC is getting a deal — Anthony Rizzo is going to be good. His articulation and engaging personality will serve him well in that capacity.

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation*): How about some very early ZiPS Standings Projections for 2026? “… hopefully the Cubs can way outperform their median projection and finish with a top-two record in the league, earning that first round playoff bye.”
• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic* {$}): The Cubs aren’t done with their offseason. Here’s where things could go. “I don’t think we have enough guys yet,” Counsell said.
• Mark Feinsand (MLB.com*): 8 teams that could still have some big moves up their sleeves. Nico Hoerner is mentioned.
• Brent Maguire (MLB.com*): Breaking down the Cubs’ extreme bullpen makeover. “Chicago’s complete overhaul of the bullpen could play a pivotal role for the 2026 Cubbies.“
• Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball*): Breaking down the Cubs’ bullpen battle: The lefties. “…  only two lefties will make the Opening Day bullpen…”
• Randy Holt (North Side Baseball*): The absurdity of Nico Hoerner’s MLB Top 100 exclusion. “The question isn’t whether Nico Hoerner should have been on MLB Network’s list of the Top 100 players in Major League Baseball. It’s how high he should have ranked.“
• Maddie Lee (Chicago Sun-Times* {$}): Will Seiya Suzuki’s postseason confidence carry over on defense for the Cubs in 2026? “Suzuki is in line to claim more regular playing time in right field this year.”
• AP: Chicago Cubs agree to minor-league contracts with Trent Thornton and Chas McCormick. Also Dylan Carlson.

Food For Thought:

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series. We will not wittingly publish A. I. – driven articles or clickbait, and insist on unimpeachable sources.

Good morning Birdland,

There has been a whole lotta smoke around the Orioles’ hunt for a starting pitcher this week.

A few days ago, Jon Heyman described the O’s as “in” on Zac Gallen, alongside the Cubs and the Diamondbacks. On Friday, Heyman reported that the Orioles are also keeping tabs on Lucas Giolito. All of this is happening while many in the industry still believe that Framber Valdez ends up in Baltimore. And don’t forget Ken Rosenthal’s report from earlier in the month that said Justin Verlander was an option for the team as well.

All of this would seem to indicate two thing:

1. The Orioles are going to get at least one more major league arm in the near future, whether it is one of the names mentioned, or someone else entirely.
2. They want each of these pitchers (or maybe Valdez, in particular) to know that they have other options, so let’s get this thing moving.

It is ideal for both the players and the team to have a deal in place prior to the start of spring training. Then they can have a full, normal preseason rather than playing catchup later on. Players that get into camp later often struggle out of the gate. Look no further than Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery in 2024. That could be the reason for the renewed urgency the last few days.

Valdez still feels like the far and away preference here. But there are worries. The 32-year-old is also going to be the most expensive, comes with draft pick compensation, and has some character worries after he seemingly intentionally crossed up his catcher Cesar Salazar last year. And if he is holding out for some offer that isn’t going to come, the Orioles may have to move on.

Gallen will also cost a draft pick, and he is coming off of a poor season. The argument for him would be that, other than 2025, he has a great track record and might still have enough in the tank to bounce back in a big way. It’s a risk though.

Verlander is probably the most predictable of the bunch. You know what you’re gonna get, and it’s not bad! He’s a veteran pitcher that knows how to compete. But he isn’t the ace he once was, and there are injury concerns with an aging arm.

Giolito feels like a fallback plan. His 3.41 ERA last year over 145 innings looks solid, but his 4.99 xERA and 7.51 K/9 are scary. Most of his metrics paint him as a below-average big league starter in 2025. So he probably isn’t the “playoff starter” the Orioles would hope to add.

All of these guys have warts. If the Orioles want someone with more upside and less risk, they probably need to look for a trade. But it’s a tough time of year to do that. Spring training is nearly here. Most teams want to start thinking about the start of the season. They don’t want to go looking for an addition to their rotation if they don’t have to. So any big trades will probably need to wait until July.

Links

Rogers reflects on magical 2025 season | Roch Kubatko
The Orioles’ continued search for upgrades to their rotation won’t matter much if Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish perform to the best of their ability. They have the potential to be the best duo in baseball. We just haven’t seen them together for extended periods of time yet.

Orioles Interested In Lucas Giolito | MLB Trade Rumors
Here is a bit more on the Giolito connection as well as the Orioles payroll situation. In short: they have flexibility to do something big. Giolito would not exactly fit that definition.

More Orioles played through injuries last year than we knew. How might things change in 2026? | The Baltimore Banner
It certainly feels like Mike Elias is building more contingencies into the roster this year than he did in 2025. The outfield has decent flexibility. If they add one more starting pitcher, that unit will be in a good spot as well. You can’t safeguard against every possible disaster, but Elias has done a nice job.

Measuring Orioles’ starting rotation against AL East rivals | Baltimore Baseball
The entire division has really intriguing rotations. The Red Sox and Blue Jays have been aggressive in adding reinforcements. The Yankees have tons of star power. The Rays always seem to churn out high-quality arms. And the Orioles have some serious upside in their arms, but oodles of risk too. It is going to be interesting!

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

• Cole Irvin turns 32 today. The lefty spent parts of two seasons with the Orioles from 2023-24. Irvin was expected to be an innings-eater at the back of the O’s rotation, but it never really stuck. Ultimately, he had a 4.68 ERA over 184.2 total innings before he was waived.
• Joel Bennett celebrates his 56th birthday. He appeared in two games out of the Orioles bullpen in 1998.

This day in O’s history

2010 – Former Orioles infielder Melvin Mora signs a one-year deal with the Rockies. He had been released a few months earlier so the O’s could sign Garrett Atkins. Mora, at 38 years old, was well past his prime, but Atkins ends up being an unmitigated disaster in 2010, released in July.

2024 – The Angelos family announces a $1.725 billion deal to sell majority ownership of the Baltimore Orioles to a group led by David Rubenstein and including Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. The deal still requires approval from MLB owners.

Today is the last day of January, which means tomorrow is February. Just one major sporting event stands between us and the start of baseball season (or two, if you count the Waste Management Phoenix Open this weekend).

Last weekend was Rockies Fest, and the organization laid out their plans for the future. We’ve learned a lot, and will continue to do so over the coming weeks. Additionally, they’ve made a flurry of roster moves and will likely continue to do so. But regardless, there are just 12 days until pitchers and catchers report!

And here’s what our staff had to say this week:

To Read (Rockpiles)

• Monday: Rockies set to unveil Larry Walker and Todd Helton statues | Sam Bradfield
• Tuesday: Warren Schaeffer looks to 2026: “It’s an exciting time right now” | Renee Dechert
• Wednesday: The Rockies need more big league ready catching depth | Skyler Timmins
• Thursday: How recent roster moves are shaping the direction of the Rockies | Evan Lang
• Friday: Rockies course correction depends on learning from failure | Joelle Milholm

To Read (PuRPs)

Full Stream

• No. 24, Wilder Dalis
• No. 23, RJ Petit
• No. 22, Yujanyer Herrera
• No. 21, Jordy Vargas
• No. 20, Ashly Andujar

To Read (Other)

• Purple Row After Dark:Hunter Goodman is ready for what’s next | Renee Dechert
• Purple Row After Dark:Jake McCarthy makes his Rockies (Fest) debut | Renee Dechert
• Roster News: Rockies trade Angel Chivilli to the Yankees | Skyler Timmins
• Roster News: Rockies to designate Yanquiel Fernández for assignment | Skyler Timmins
• Roster News: Rockies acquire Edouard Julien and Pierson Ohl from Minnesota | Skyler Timmins
• Purple Row After Dark:Paul DePodesta discusses the flurry of roster moves | Sam Bradfield
• Purple Row After Dark:Kyle Freeland looks ahead | Renee Dechert

Weekend Discussion Topics

If Hollywood to remake Moneyball as a Rockies-centered movie, which players and coaches would be featured, and who would play each of them? Let us know your thoughts!

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Pittsburgh Pirates prospect Konnor Griffin is one of the most intriguing players in minor league baseball, as he sits at number one in MLB.com’s top 100 prospect rankings.

Griffin, 19, batted .333 in 122 games last season with Bradenton, Greensboro and Altoona, making him someone to watch right out of the gates. He is a big reason why the Pirates rank No. 3 in ESPN insider Kiley McDaniel’s farm system rankings.

“The way these dollar figures and thus the farm rankings are calculated is based on work by Craig Edwards at FanGraphs (now of the MLBPA), using historical outcomes married to the FV (future value) system that my colleagues and I used at FanGraphs and that I continue to use here. An interesting but not surprising result of this system is that the top prospect in baseball is worth a lot more than the next few, like over 40% more. Sometimes, the gap between those two prospects isn’t that big; sometimes, it’s huge. Obviously, future Hall of Famers tend to be at the top spot, so you can see how this occurred in the empirical data,“ McDaniel wrote.

“Because of that, the Pirates’ figure is boosted by Griffin residing in the top spot in the whole sport. And my point here is that he is the top prospect by a lot — he basically broke the algorithm I made to help with this process — so the gap between him and the next few prospects feels correct this time. If you were to simply take Griffin out of the Pirates’ system, they’d drop to the middle of these rankings; and since Griffin might break camp with the big league team, that could happen as soon as a few months into the major league season. And second-ranked prospect Bubba Chandler (12th in the top 100) likely graduates early in the season too.“

The only teams that ranked ahead of the Pirates on the list were the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians. While Griffin is an outlier for the Pirates, it gives the team a lot to look forward to in the future. Griffin’s early returns have been excellent, and that’s why the Pirates felt comfortable moving him all the way to Double-A just months after he was drafted.

Baseball teams aren’t built off of one or two players, but finding a way to land a superstar is difficult. If Pittsburgh has a pitcher in Paul Skenes and a hitter in Griffin, that shouldn’t go unnoticed.

BD community, what are your thoughts on Griffin and the team’s ranking in the minor league rankings? Chime off in the comments section below.

Becoming a major league baseball player is extremely difficult. I know, breaking news… It definitely helps if a major league team signs you to a professional contract and sends you to one of their minor league affiliates, but even so, the odds are against you. With the recent excitement in Cardinals nation around the signing of top 10 international prospect, outfielder, Emanuel Luna, I wanted to dig into some data and see how often players, position players specifically, were able to make the trek all the way from the lowest rung of professional baseball, the Dominican Summer League (DSL), to a major league field. Going back to 2006, 7,655 players have gotten a plate appearance in the DSL. 226, or roughly 3%, of these young men have eventually made a major league debut. This 3% of players end up making a huge impact on major league rosters accounting for roughly 16% of total position player WAR produced over the last five seasons. Fortunately for the Cardinals, their last two international signing classes are off to terrific starts. Everyone has been following Rainiel Rodriguez and Yairo Padilla from the 2024 class, but the 2025 class has at least seven interesting names on the position player side of things too. Today I want to focus on these seven players and evaluate if they really only have a 3% chance each of making it to St. Louis. 

Before we get to our prospect discussion, I want to provide a bit of historical context for the Cardinals DSL hitter production. All of the aforementioned players will be following in the illustrious footsteps of Cardinals legend Ildemaro Vargas as the next superstar to make the long journey from the DSL to St. Louis. Just kidding, but only barely.. The Cardinals have had a tough time getting any position player talent out of their DSL programs over the last several decades. Since 2006, Vargas ranks behind only Edmundo Sosa and Ivan Herrera as noteworthy alumni from the lowest level of the Cardinals system. Oscar Taveras would have likely changed the narrative drastically had his story not ended so sadly. Herrera along with fellow catchers Leonardo Bernal and Rainiel Rodriguez will try to break the trend, but there is no denying that the Cardinals have struggled in this department. If you total up the career WAR of all the DSL (and now defunct Venezuelan Summer League) players since 2006, the Cardinals rank 26th in baseball with a grand total of 8 WAR produced (inclusive of all career WAR, not just with the signing team). The top teams in this department have found multiple star-level players. Houston leads the way with 106 WAR with notable contributions from Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Teoscar Hernandez. Boston is next led by Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers.

Alright, back to the Cardinals 2025 DSL standouts. A quick summary before we dive into some more macro data. 

Sebastian Dos Santos signed for only $75K and as an unheralded member of the 2025 international class, but had the most impressive debut of the group. His 158 wRC+ was ninth in the DSL and third among players 17 or younger. He walked more than he struck out and led all first-year DSL players with a .258 isolated slugging percentage (fifth overall). Dos Santos is noted as having a great approach at the plate and feel for hitting. While he does not have monster exit velocity numbers yet, his 21 extra-base hits in 38 games are extremely encouraging. While his season strikeout percentage was solid at 17.5%, Dos Santos finished on an incredible run striking out only one time in his final 51 plate appearances. 

Yeferson Portolatin signed for $450K and had an excellent DSL debut. His 145 wRC+ was driven in large part by a 29.3% walk rate. He played mostly second base with a few appearances at short and third. 

Yaxson Lucena is the only player on this list repeating the DSL. He put up an 89 wRC+ across 130 plate appearances in his age 16 season in 2024, and then crushed the league in 2025 with a 1.5 BB/K ratio and 140 wRC+. Lucena is another player with a great plate approach and excellent contact skills, but it remains to be seen how much power he can get to. He has played exclusively corner outfield and DH thus far in his career. 

Kenly Hunter received the third-largest bonus in the 2025 class at $700K. He had an excellent debut as well putting up a 131 wRC+ while stealing 25 bases as the center fielder for the DSL squad. While he showed minimal power, Hunter is starting to pop up on some Cardinals prospect lists because of his pedigree and solid first professional season. 

Miguel Hernandez is one of the younger players in the 2025 class and had an excellent debut with a 124 wRC+. Despite being seen as a hit-over-power prospect, he popped 5 home runs in 36 games while serving as the team’s primary shortstop. 

Juan Rujano is a bat first catcher that signed for $750K out of Panama. While his K rate was slightly elevated at 23%, he still managed a 121 wRC+ with solid walk and power numbers. 

Royelny Strop was the most heralded member of the 2025 class signing for $1.4M. The son of former Cubs reliever Pedro, struggled with injuries and performance for most of the year. Strop turned it on over his last six games collecting seven extra-base hits (out of nine on the season) and hitting for the cycle in his final game. The late barrage brought his season wRC+ up to 89. 

Now, back to the question: do all of these seemingly promising prospects really only have a 3% chance each of making it to St. Louis? How much do their (mostly) promising starts at such young ages change their odds moving forward. The first thing working to the whole group’s advantage is age. All seven of these prospects were in their age 17 season in 2025. Below are the updated odds based on age for all players that accrued at least 100 plate appearances in a given season.

Note that this is showing individual seasons, so a player that played both his age 17 and 18 season in the DSL would be counted twice. I also cut the data off after the 2019 season. The 2020 season was canceled due to COVID and the more recent seasons have not started to see a meaningful number of players make major league debuts. These numbers aren’t surprising as we would expect players good enough to get to 100 plate appearances at a younger age are more likely to succeed relative to their older counterparts. For me the big takeaway is that it is a big red flag if a prospect is held back after his age 17 season and not advanced to the next level.

With the obvious age filter out of the way, we can move to performance. It is tricky evaluating DSL statistics  for a couple of reasons. First, the seasons are short. Most of the seasons in our dataset are in the 100-200 plate appearance range, which creates triple slash lines heavily influenced by batted-ball luck. Second, there has been significant change in the DSL environment over the years. The league-wide walk rate was 14.7% in 2025 after hovering closer to 10% prior to 2018. To mitigate the sample-size issue, I will look at BB%, K%, and isolated slugging. While not perfect, these metrics stabilize in far fewer plate appearances than batting average or on-base percentage. To try to account for the change in playing environment, I converted the rate stats to plus stats relative to the league average that year. For example, Kenley Hunter had a strikeout percentage of 11.6% compared to the league average of 20.4% which works out to a K%+ of 176. 

Here is a look at how the three plus statistics relate to chance of a debut:

Strikeout rate and isolated slugging have a very obvious relationship to debut rate. Striking out at an above-average (in a bad way) rate doesn’t preclude a player from making a debut but it more than cuts his chances in half relative to the overall average. The walk rate relationship is all over the place. Players that walk at half the league average or less actually debut slightly more often than the entire pool. This validates a common theme you will hear in scouting reports that talented players tend to swing more because they can hit anything at the lower levels. Our own Yohel Pozo shows up on the list of low walk players after pulling off a 5% walk rate back in 2014 in the Rangers system. Despite Pozo’s presence, I am comfortable throwing out walk rate as overly predictive at this stage. 

Here are how the aforementioned redbird farmhands stack up on these metrics:

The obvious question looking at these two tables is how does a player that excels in multiple categories see their likelihood of a debut change. Because all of the Cardinals prospects here played their age 17 season, I will look exclusively at that cohort while throwing out the BB+ metric as a factor (sorry Yeferson). The grid below maps K%+ against ISO+. Using Kenly Hunter as the example again, he would slot into the fourth row down (150-200 K%+) and the second column from the left (50-100 ISO+). This maps him to a group of players that have historically made it for at least one big-league at-bat 9% of the time.

This table of all the 17-year-old prospects to receive 100 plate appearances in a season between 2006 and 2019 includes 1,901 player seasons. The extreme performances have relatively low numbers of players, but looking at the ranges gives a good sense of how these players have historically performed. The only player in the 200-250 bucket for both K%+ and ISO+ is Andres Gimenez. 

Where the Cardinals Prospects Fit In

Sebastian Dos Santos fits in a cohort that has made a big-league debut 57% of the time as 14 players have had K%+ between 100 and 150 with ISO+ rates between 200 and 250. This group is led by Rafael Devers and Julio Rodriguez and also includes former top prospect Noelvi Marte. 

Yaxson Lucena falls in the 33% bucket with a couple of former top prospects in Oscar Taveras and Victor Robles, but no huge major league success. It is fair to knock Lucena back a notch because he is the only player repeating the DSL. 

Yeferson Portalatin falls in the 9% bucket with both metrics between 100 and 150. 14 of his 151 comparables have debuted with Xander Bogaerts, Gregory Polanco, and Ivan Herrera leading the pack. I know we cannot get excited about walks in the DSL, but it will be fun to see how Portalatin’s patient approach translates and evolves as he moves up the ladder. 

Miguel Hernandez just missed the 100-and-up strikeout rate club. Only 6 of the 112 players in his bucket made it big but there are some fun ones with Oneil Cruz and Marcell Ozuna.

Our metric gives Kenly Hunter a 9% chance of making the show with Jean Segura as the most prominent player to come out of the high contact, low-power group. 

Both Royelny Strop and Juan Rujano fall in the 50-100 K%+ and 100 to 150 ISO+ group that has historically made it 5% of the time. Willson Contreras is by far the best of this 225 player pool, but he is joined by Cardinals legends Yairo Munoz and Elehuris Montero. 

All of these players should be stateside this spring preparing to start in the Florida Complex League. Best case scenario, a couple of them break out and make it to low-A before the season’s end. While none of this group is threatening the Cardinals’ top 10 or even 20 prospect list yet, the path from the DSL to prospect prominence has been well worn over the last year. In 2024, current top 100 prospects Jesus Made, Luis Pena, Rainiel Rodriguez, Edward Florentino, and Emil Morales were all excelling in the DSL. 

I’m actually kind of surprised how close we are to spring training. Had you asked me, I would have told you it was still like a month and a half away, but it’s kind of snuck up on us.

Which is a good thing since we’re all sick of waiting for it to arrive.

On to the links.

Phillies news:

• In this version of the mailbag ($), there are questions answered about Aidan Miller breaking camp with the team and Justin Crawford’s defense.
• The same infield is returning to the Phillies in 2026. Since they’re talented, this kind of running back is a good thing.

MLB news:

• The A’s continued locking up their core offensive players, giving Jacob Wilson a seven-year extension for about $70 million.
• Derek Falvey and the Twins have mutually agreed to part ways. Kind of a stunner out of Minnesota, but maybe not really?
• Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo and Clayton Kershaw will join NBC to help anchor their newfound baseball coverage.
• San Francisco has dealt Kai-Wei Teng to the Astros as Houston tries to accumulate more pitching depth.

For those of you who can’t read all the hundreds of comments in the links posts every day, we’re hoping to isolate some of the most interesting conversations from the Moose Tracks and open them up to broader discussion, giving a little more space and time to issues that we feel especially deserve conversation. Yesterday, commenter USSDumper (an excellent username, indeed) posed this question:

Who of the following players would help the Mariners most by putting up a 3-4 win season next year:

• Cole Young
• Luke Raley
• Colt Emerson
• Ben Williamson
• Victor Robles
• Bryce Miller
• Dom Canzone

I really enjoyed the conversation that stemmed from this prompt in the Moose Tracks, which gave me avenues to think about that I wouldn’t have originally taken into consideration—like the idea that a 3-4 win season from Colt Emerson not only helps the Mariners at a supposed position of weakness, but also potentially pays dividends down the line with an extra draft pick. My gut reaction, given yesterday’s injury news about Logan Evans, is to pick stability in the rotation with Bryce Miller. But honestly, I can see an argument for any player on the list. It was such a good conversation that I felt it deserved better than being buried in a links post on a Friday morning.

So, going forward, if this is something you’re interested in—even if not this particular prompt—please participate here. Maybe we’ll do this weekly, or semiweekly. In a time when authentic conversations are becoming less common in online spaces, we don’t take our community for granted, and we want to give space for the organic ideas brought up by community members to grow.

The Athletics locked up a piece of their young core.

All-Star shortstop Jacob Wilson and the A’s reached an agreement on a seven-year extension that includes a club option for a potential eighth year, the team announced on Friday.

The deal is worth $70 million, The Post’s Joel Sherman confirmed.

Wilson, 23, is coming off a stellar rookie season where he put up a slash line of .311/.355/.444 with 26 doubles and 13 home runs.

Wilson’s .311 batting average was tied for second in the American League with Bo Bichette, trailing just Aaron Judge (.331).

His efforts earned him his first career All-Star appearance as he finished second for American League Rookie of the Year race fellow A’s teammate Nick Kurtz.

Wilson’s extension comes as the Athletics continue to build their young offensive core, with the team already having outfielders Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler under contract until at least 2030.

The Athletics selected Wilson with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, and he quickly made his way to the big leagues, spending just 83 games in the minors before being called up at the end of 2024.

When speaking to reporters at the end of this past season, Wilson said that it was “an honor” to be in the AL batting title discussion alongside Judge.

“I’ve been trailing that guy all year,” Wilson said in September. “It’s definitely an honor to be in the same category as him with the year he’s had. It’s awesome just to be able to compete with him.

“I’m still a couple of points behind him, but I’m just going out there every day having fun playing baseball with these guys for the last time this season.”