BRONX, NY - APRIL 19: Kansas City Royals Manager Matt Quatraro (33) takes the ball from Kansas City Royals Pitcher Cole Ragans (55) as he makes a pitching change during the fifth inning of a Major League Baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Yankees on April 19, 2026, at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After a disappointing 2025, everyone in the Kansas City Royals organization–from the coaches to the players to the front office–were adamant that this year’s goal was making the playoffs again. Unfortunately for everyone involved, the season has been a complete and total disaster. We’re 22 games in, and the Royals stand at 7-15, tied for the worst record in Major League Baseball.
The good news is that there are 140 games left in the baseball season. That’s a lot of baseball! Even after playing so poorly so for long to begin the year, the Royals are only five games out from the third Wild Card spot. That’s a plenty workable gap in July, let alone May.
The bad news is that the Royals have probably functionally played themselves out of a playoff spot, even if they’re mathematically in the running.
Let’s start with some simple math here. Over the last five years, the the third Wild Card team (or what would have been the third Wild Card team in 2021) averaged 86.5 wins. Yes, you could get lucky and sneak in with 83 wins, but you could get unlucky and fail to get in with 90. So a win target of 87 is reasonable.
Team
Year
Wins
Blue Jays
2021
91
Blue Jays
2023
89
Mets
2024
89
Phillies
2022
87
Tigers
2025
87
Rays
2022
86
Tigers
2024
86
Diamondbacks
2023
84
Reds
2025
83
Reds
2021
83
MEDIAN
86.5
Here, you can see why the poor start has such a big impact. To get to 87 wins now, the Royals must go 80-60 the rest of the year. That’s a winning percentage of .571, or a 93-win pace.
This is…a tall order. To put it into perspective, the Royals have won 93 games over a full season once in 46 years–that was 2015, when Kansas City won the World Series. The Royals essentially have to play nearly as good as the 2015 team did for the rest of the season. Considering that this team is significantly less talented than that 2015 squad, we have a pretty big problem.
How much less talented these Royals are than a real 90-something win team, a mark that some around the league predicted would happen? That’s the real question. The Royals have made it a nearly yearly tradition to suffer through extended early-season losing streaks. And as longtime Royals writer Rany Jazayerli pointed out, the only times the Royals avoided doing so was when the team made the playoffs (or, in other words, was actually a good team).
For the 20th time in the last 23 years, the Royals have lost 6 in a row in the first 60 games of the season. (And in 17 of the 20 years it happened by Game 35.)
The only three seasons it did *not* happen (2014, 2015, 2024) are the only three seasons they made the playoffs. https://t.co/qaV54cL3sR
The crux of the matter is that good teams don’t start so poorly because they have enough talent to stave off big losing streaks. While I think the Royals are clearly better and more talented than their first few weeks of baseball has shown, I also think it’s clear that the Royals just aren’t a playoff team. They have the same excellent starting pitching and same poor offense as last year, when they went 81-81. Add in what is literally the worst bullpen in the big leagues, though, and this year’s squad is starting to look worse than last year’s squad.
Again, I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised if the Royals fought their way back into standings relevancy. It’s just that playoff teams tend not to what the Royals have been doing over this long of a stretch of time. And when you look at the math, well, it just looks grim–just like the experience of watching Royals baseball this year.
There were no guarantees based on sequencing, but the Mets drew an awfully short stick for extra innings. You know, just how things go when your team is tailspinning. When Pete Crow-Armstrong struck out to end the ninth, it meant he’d be the placed runner to start the 10th. Once Caleb Thielbar escaped the top of the inning, I had a strong feeling the Cubs would win. PCA’s speed is a real weapon in that spot. The wild pitch that sent him to third would advance most baserunners. But the medium depth fly ball wouldn’t score just anyone. Very few guys in baseball would have scored that easily.
I’m going to be surprised if this Mets team goes down like the Hindenburg. I wouldn’t write any obituaries for them just yet. But everything is going wrong for them right now. Even when they got good a start Saturday and a good opener/bulk inning performance, they couldn’t turn either into a win. They got a little pitching over the weekend, but they just didn’t get any hitting. That reminded me of where the Cubs were regularly during this year’s opening week. This is why we cherish those wins that we do get when things aren’t going right.
Even now, this Cub team has to feel fortunate to be where it is sitting. With Cade Horton gone, Matthew Boyd largely non-existent, and the struggles from key offensive players, this isn’t yet a formidable Cub team. This team isn’t going to be anywhere near 90 wins with this little production from Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki and PCA. One assumes that Nico Hoerner isn’t going to drive in 160 runs or that Ian Happ is going to hit 40 homers. Moisés Ballesteros is probably not going to have an OPS in the vicinity of 1.000. We can hope that as the hot starters cool off that the cool starters will roll in.
Until that happens, enjoy every win this team is able to stack. With this win, they are on a 92.6 win pace. It definitely gets harder from here. But it starts with a Phillies team that has had some recent struggles of its own, including getting manhandled Tuesday and Wednesday by the Cubs to start this winning streak.
It’s always fun to recap a game like this. In a 2-1 extra-inning victory, every contribution is a key contribution. Behind every key I note and all of the heroes are even more pieces that mattered. Any one contribution falling away probably loses a game.
Three Positives:
Ian Happ reached base three times (the Cubs reached only 11). One of those led to the tying run.
Javier Assad faced 20 batters over 5.2 innings and allowed only three hits, no walks and one run.
PCA had a triple and was hit by a pitch. He scored the winning run with his legs even after they’d gotten him in trouble twice earlier in the game.
Hat tip to the no-name brigade out of the Cub pen. Four Cub relievers threw 4.1 scoreless innings, allowing three hits and no walks.
Game 21, April 19: Cubs 2, Mets 1 (12-9)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Michael Conforto (.491). 1-1, 2B, RBI
Hero: Ian Happ (.178). 2-3, BB
Sidekick: Matt Shaw (.117). 1-1.
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.313). 0-4
Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.272). 0-4
Kid: Carson Kelly (-.206). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Conforto’s one-out double in the ninth scored the tying run from first. (.491)
*Mets Play of the Game: MJ Melendez led off the fifth inning with a solo homer. (.144)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 20 Winner: Carson Kelly received 139 of 171 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Nico Hoerner +12.5
Carson Kelly/Michael Conforto +6
Edward Cabrera/Daniel Palencia +5
Phil Maton -6
Matt Shaw -8
Pete Crow-Armstrong -15
Up Next: The Cubs will try to win a sixth straight game. The Phillies come to town. The Cubs just won the last two in Philly to start this streak. Over these last six games, these two teams have moved as mirror images. The Phillies were swept over the weekend and have lost five straight. They are now 8-13. So once again, the Cubs will look to take advantage of catching a team at exactly the right time.
Colin Rea (2-0, 3.63, 17.1 IP) makes his second start for the Cubs. Last Tuesday he was the “bulk guy” against the Phillies after Riley Martin threw a scoreless first as the opener. Rea allowed three runs on four hits and no walks over six in that one. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes with him seeing them twice back-to-back. Aaron Nola (1-1, 4.03, 22.1 IP) was the opposition in that game. He allowed three runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings. The Phils bullpen allowed seven runs (six earned) over only four innings in that one.
FORT MYERS, - MARCH 16: Luis Guanipa #72 of the Atlanta Braves throws the ball back to the infield during the 2024 Spring Breakout Game between the Atlanta Braves and the Boston Red Sox at JetBlue Park on Saturday, March 16, 2024 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Tough one for the Stripers as projected starter Didier Fuentes was a healthy scratch with a potential move to Atlanta in the near future. As a result Gwinnett was forced to engage in a bullpen game that had relief pitcher Tayler Scott getting the nod as the starter. He was not greeted kindly as he did allow all three runs in the first inning.
The rest of the staff: Dylan Dodd (1H 1H 0R 1BB 2K), Austin Pope (2IP 2H 1ER 1BB 1K), and James Karinchak (2IP 0H 0R 1BB 3K) all pitched admirably, allowing just one run over the games next five innings. With the Stripers leading 5-4 and with one of the strongest pitchers in the International League on the mound in Hayden Harris, disaster struck as his second pitch was hit 108 MPH for a game tying homer. He would then hit a batter, give up a double, before ultimately allowing a second runner to score via a sacrifice fly to swing the lead over to the Redbirds.
Offensively, the Stripers collected 11 hits but stranded ten runners while going 3-for-11 with runners in scoring position. Josè Azocar hit his first home run of the season in the third inning a towering 403’.
Later in the inning the Stripers would tie the game at three a piece via a Ben Gamel single, but any kind of momentum was quickly ended as the game was then delayed because of…..bees.
The Herick Hernandez experience finally hit a speed bump this season as the pitcher struggled with his pitch count and lasted just 1.1 innings – needing a crazy 65 pitches. Because of that, the Clingstones were forced to essentially have a bullpen game that lasted a full 12 innings. Jack Dashwood (2.1IP 3H 0R 0BB 4K), Jhancarlos Lara (1IP 1H 1ER 2BB 1K), LJ McDonough (1.1IP 1H 3ER 2BB 1K), Blayne Enlow (1.2IP 2H 0R 1BB 2K), Blane Abeyta (2IP 0H 0R 1BB 2K), and Shay Schanaman (2IP 1H 1R 0ER 0BB 1K) did just enough to get the win for the Clingstones. The pitching staff had a combined 9 walks while striking out 13. If traditional, strong pitch baseball is your thing, this game was not to your liking.
The Clingstones recorded 10 runs but never scored more than two in a single inning. After going down 3-0 it was Jordan Groshans and Adam Zebrowski who would each hit solo homers to reduce the deficient to a single run in the third. David McCabe would add his fifth homer of the season in the third inning with this two run blast.
The game would then be tied entering the bottom of the fifth inning after another bad outing by Jhancarlos Lara, but Cal Conley would put the Clingstones back up with his first homer of the season.
After the game being tied again after the seventh inning, the teams would exchange zeroes for the next four innings. The Shuckers would score via the ghost runner in the top of the 12th to give them the 8-7 lead, but after an RBI single by Patrick Clohisy tied the game, Adam Zebrowski would end the game with his second homer of the season, this time of the walk off variety.
Rome lost another one to the BlueClaws thanks to some faulty pitching towards the end of the game. Jeremy Reyes got the start and was inefficient but effective, walking three, pitching just 3.1 innings but only allowing one earned run to score. Reyes left the game with two runners on and one out and was relieved by David Rodriguez (1.2IP 1H 0R 3BB 2K) who struck out the first hitter he saw, but then walked the next to to put the BlueClaws up one.
Trent Buchanan (1IP 0H 0R 3BB 2K) came in for David Rodriguez and flirted with disaster by walking the bases loaded with just one out, but was able to escape the jam without surrendering a run. The luck ran out in the seventh inning when Ian Mejia (1IP 1H 4ER 3BB 2K) also walked the bases loaded before giving up a grand slam to push the lead to 5-0. The BlueClaws would add one two more runs the following ending against Justin Long (1IP 2H 2ER 1BB 1K) to bring their total to seven for the game.
That was more than enough because the Rome bats were silenced. The Emperors drew an outstanding eight walks, with Logan Braunschweig walking three times himself, but they collected just three hits – one by Isaiah Drake who stole his fifth base, and Colin Burgess who recorded two himself. They would strand nine on base, and go 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position for the final nail in the coffin.
(3-11) Fayetteville Woodpeckers 5, (9-6) Augusta GreenJackets 12
The GreenJackets exploded for 12 runs on 15 hits in another win over the Fayetteville Woodpeckers. Davis Polo picked up the start and surrendered just one hit over four innings of work. After returning from a season long injury, Davis is slowly ramping up his arm so while the velocities have been a tad inconsistent, the three pitch mix he utilizes (four-seam, slider, changeup) have all looked pretty solid.
He was relieved by Cristobal Abreu (0.0IP 1H 1ER 3BB 0K) who was unfortunately dreadful, giving up an earned run by walking three and not recording a single out – an unfortunate result as the Abreu four-seam/slider mix looked strong this off-season with his velocity peaking around 99 MPH, but it he was unable to control anything. Mathieu Curtis (1IP 0H 0R 0BB 3K) picked up the slack by striking out the side ending the threat. Finally, Kendy Richard (4IP 5H 2ER 2BB 4K) pitched the final four innings and struggled himself which is unfortunately a theme for him this season. Without the elite velocity on his fastball and his inability to locate it in the top of the zone, Kendry simply isn’t generating the whiffs he did last season that enabled that strong start. Fortunately for him, because the offense was once again outrageous, he pitched the final four innings and picked up the save.
Offensively, everyone but Dallas Macias was able to get on base. The GreenJackets scored their first run in the first inning after two wild pitches allowed the first runner to score. They would add three in the third by flexing their power with Dalton McIntyre hitting a two run homer to score Alex Lodise, then Luis Guanipa would unload on his second homer of the season to push the lead to 4-1.
This would start a stretch of five straight innings where the GreenJackets would pick up at least one run. Guanipa would create a run of his own in the fifth inning by leading off the game with a double, stealing third, and then scoring after a fielding error by the third baseman. Junior Garcia add his first homer as well, to extend the lead to 7-2.
Yamvier Carrero, an undrafted free agent that the Braves signed out of Puerto Rico made his professional debut. He would hit ninth, pick up a pair of singles, one walk, and go 3-for-3 in the stolen base department.
May 4, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Jonathan India (6) reacts to hitting a home run against the Baltimore Orioles as he crosses home plate during the fifth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
The 2026 Orioles do not appear to be particularly good. You might call them frustrating, or underwhelming, or flat-out bad. But at the moment, they’re far from the worst team in the American League. That dubious distinction falls to the Orioles’ next opponent, the Kansas City Royals.
The Royals, fresh off being swept out of Yankee Stadium, hold a 7-15 record, tied with the Mets for the worst in baseball. Kansas City has lost seven consecutive games. Of course I’m pleased when bad things happen to the Royals, a team I haven’t forgiven for beating the Orioles in the playoffs in 2014 and 2024, although it’s hard to celebrate another team’s failures too much when the O’s seem to be headed down that precarious path themselves.
The Royals’ main problem is obvious: they simply cannot hit. They’ve scored just 71 runs this season, tied with the Reds and the aforementioned Mets for the fewest in baseball. Their team batting average (.219), OBP (.298), and OPS (.640) are all among the five worst in MLB. By comparison, the Orioles — a team that’s not exactly a model of offensive consistency — have an OPS nearly 60 points higher (.699).
Four of the Royals’ regulars have sub-.600 OPSes, including two guys who were expected to be key hitters, Vinnie “Pasquatch” Pasquantino (.499), and Salvador Perez (.521). Perez, the 15-year Royals veteran and the only player remaining from the 2015 World Series champions, recently got into a tiff with manager Matt Quatraro after being given a day off for a “mental breather.” Even the great Bobby Witt Jr. has looked ordinary to begin 2026. The Royals’ best story has been the Kansas City-born-and-raised rookie Carter Jensen, who has crushed five of the team’s 17 home runs and leads the team with an .812 OPS.
The strength of the Royals has been their starting rotation, which has posted a 3.25 ERA, sixth-best in the majors. They’ll throw their two best starters at the Orioles in this series. The bullpen, on the other hand, is wretched, with a league-worst 6.52 ERA. Closer Carlos Estévez made just one appearance, coughing up six runs in just a third of an inning, before landing on the injured list. His replacement, Lucas Erceg, has five saves but a 6.14 ERA. The Royals’ middle-relief and setup crew hasn’t been much better.
The struggling Orioles bats might continue to have trouble early in games, but if they can ratchet up the pitch counts of the Royals starters and get to the bullpen early, we could see some late-inning fireworks. Coming off a disappointing series in Cleveland, these next three games are a golden opportunity for the Orioles to get themselves back on the right track.
Game 1: Monday, 7:40 PM, MASN, FS1 (out-of-market)
Every time Bradish takes the mound, I expect it to be the day when he’ll look like the Kyle Bradish of old. And it keeps not happening. He’s four outings into the season and has yet to deliver a quality start, though he did manage to work a season-high six innings in his most recent one. Bradish is giving up way too many hits (10.1 H/9) and walks (4.6 BB/9) and just doesn’t have the sharpness to his stuff that we’re used to. If there’s ever a lineup for him to finally dominate, it’s this one.
Seth Lugo, after a bit of a down year last season, has returned to his 2024 All-Star form for the Royals at age 36. He’s given up only four earned runs in his four starts combined, and is averaging less than a baserunner per inning. He hasn’t allowed a home run, either. Lugo threw a quality start against the Orioles last year, but most of the current squad has never faced him. Only four active O’s have any career at-bats against Lugo, and none more than seven PAs.
Much like with Bradish, I keep expecting each Shane Baz start to reveal the ace-like form that the Orioles clearly anticipated from him. Again, I am left disappointed. He’s winless and quality start-less in his first four games as a Bird and frankly seems very hittable so far (10.6 H/9). Still, he’s only just begun working with the Orioles’ pitching development folks, and the team seems to have some ideas as to how to unleash his full potential. It’d be nice if we start seeing that at some point, considering he’s got five more years in an Orioles uniform.
Bubic, a Royals first-round pick in 2018, has had an up-and-down, injury-marred career. The longtime starter, after pitching exclusively in relief in 2024, moved back to the rotation last season with fantastic results, posting a 2.55 ERA in 20 starts and making the AL All-Star team. He’s been solid enough to begin 2026, and since he’s a lefty, you can bet the Orioles will use some galaxy-brain lineup that has Johnathan Rodríguez batting cleanup and Blaze Alexander in center field and other such nonsense. Last year, Bubic was untouchable against the Orioles, pitching 11.2 innings without allowing an earned run in his two starts against them.
Game 3: Wednesday, 2:10 PM, MASN
RHP Chris Bassitt (0-2, 6.19) vs. RHP Michael Wacha (2-0, 1.00)
Every time Chris Bassitt starts, I keep expecting…ah, forget it. I don’t really expect much from the 37-year-old at this point. But “try to be better than Charlie Morton” doesn’t seem like a big ask. So far, Bassitt has failed at that task. He’s averaging just four innings per start, surrendering 23 hits in 16 innings. His strikeout rate, which is a career 8.3, is down to 3.9. His struggles aren’t necessarily permanent, and there’s a lot of season left, but he’s at the age where pitchers can fall off a cliff without warning. With Brandon Young and Cade Povich both pitching well at Triple-A, Bassitt’s rotation job could be in jeopardy if he doesn’t start to figure things out soon.
The Royals are saving the best for last with Wacha, who currently has the third-best ERA in the majors. He’s given up only three earned runs in 27 innings. He’s gone at least six innings in all four starts, including eight shutout frames against the White Sox on April 11. Let’s be honest: the Orioles aren’t the team that’s going to slow Wacha’s roll (especially not Gunnar Henderson, who’s 2-for-17 lifetime against him). The Royals were Wacha’s sixth team in six years when he signed with the club in 2023, but he’s certainly found a home in Kansas City.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments below.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - APRIL 16: Shortstop Blaze Alexander #23 of the Baltimore Orioles throws out Austin Hedges #27 of the Cleveland Guardians at first during the fifth inning at Progressive Field on April 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In last week’s episode of the podcast, we could tentatively feel a bit better about the Orioles because they were in first place. They went on to defend that position with a thrilling comeback win last Monday night, providing a tantalizing look at what this team could be if enough things click into place at once. The rest of the week was not so fun, as the Orioles went on to win just one game in the three-game set with Arizona and then only one game in a four-gamer in Cleveland. That’s heading the wrong direction.
This week, after watching a couple of high-impact botch jobs that resulted from playing natural infielders in the outfield, I’m feeling frustrated about the ways in which it seems like the Orioles essentially outsmart themselves by thinking that they’re so clever that they can do obviously stupid things and make them work out. “Sure, it’ll be fine if we play Blaze Alexander in center field and Weston Wilson in left field to stack the lineup with righty bats against a lefty pitcher.” “Of course we can put some completely anonymous big minor league power guy in the cleanup spot and have that go fine.”
Typing them out, they sound absolutely ridiculous, and yet the Orioles have tossed Alexander into center field multiple times now, with it costing them both times. They have done the Johnathan Rodríguez as cleanup hitter thing multiple times too. It hasn’t worked yet. There are a number of problems that the Orioles have that they can’t do much about until either players get healthy or players with no immediate replacements start playing better. Even with this patchwork roster, though, they don’t have to post Alexander in center field. They should stop being stupid while trying to be so smart.
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ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 19: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels is out at second base in the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 19, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Joe Scarnici/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Diego Padres dropped the first game in their series with the Los Angeles Angels, but they bounced backto win the next two games thanks to scoreless starts from German Marquez and Micael King. The offense was not stellar in any of the games in Los Angeles, but in the two wins, the San Diego lineup did enough to put the team over the top. The result of the back-to-back wins was the fifth consecutive series win for the Padres. San Diego will have an off day today and will open a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies in Denver on Tuesday before another day off and a trip to Mexico City to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday and Sunday. It has been a successful couple of weeks for the San Diego ballclub and the hope is that they can continue that success this week with a Colorado team that was swept in a four-game series at Petco Park to open the last homestand.
Padres News:
The San Diego offense in Los Angeles did not look like the same offense that won seven games and two series at Petco Park last week. If the Padres can find offensive consistency, it could be an exciting year in San Diego.
Mason Miller closed out the last two games against the Angels and with two more scoreless innings, he finds himself staring at Padres history, needing just one more scoreless inning to tie the record for the longest scoreless streak in the franchise’s history.
Padres fans invaded Angel Stadium for their three-game series. Watching the games and listening to the broadcasts, chants of “Holy Sheets” and cheers for successful San Diego plays were clearly heard.
Jake Cronenworth was hit in the face by a pitch on Saturday night, prompting manager Craig Stammen to remark on his toughness. Cronenworth was out of the lineup Sunday, resulting in Fernando Tatis Jr. getting another start at second base. Because of his absence, it was good to see Cronenworth made a pinch-hit appearance late in the game, even if it resulted in a strikeout.
Rosman Verdugo and Alex McCoy took the headlines for the San Diego minor league system with the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas being postponed due to weather conditions.
It’s a quieter slate across the Majors tonight, with only 10 games on the schedule. My MLB player props analysis will highlight Yordan Alvarez, Sonny Gray, and Dylan Cease.
Yordan Alvarez is off to a wonderful start in 2026. The Houston Astros slugger leads the big leagues with 10 home runs, and he just went deep in three straight games over the weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals. Why not make it four?
While Alvarez only has one at-bat against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Slade Cecconi, the right-hander has struggled at suppressing the long ball, giving up three in only four starts. Alvarez is obviously red-hot, and five of his bombs have come off righties. Cecconi has also allowed two homers to left-handed batters.
Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SCHN, Guardians.TV
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts
Sonny Gray has always been a strikeout pitcher. While he’s only racked up 11 Ks in 20 1/3 innings for the Boston Red Sox, today’s start against the Detroit Tigers profiles as an opportunity to collect his fair share of swings and misses.
The righty has held the Tigers’ lineup to a .141 average over 71 at-bats, and he’s struck out 34. The likes of Javier Baez, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Gleyber Torres have not been able to touch Gray. Detroit ranks 12th in team strikeouts, and they’re striking out even more on the road.
Time: 11:10 a.m. ET
Where to watch: DSN, NESN
Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
Dylan Cease has proven to be a massive pickup for the Toronto Blue Jays. His elite stuff has played early on, compiling a 1.74 ERA over four starts, striking out 32 in just 20 2/3 innings. Cease has cashed the over in Ks in two of his four appearances, and he even struck out eight Dodgers on April 8.
Tonight’s matchup is a clear opportunity for him to rack up the Ks.
The Jays face the Los Angeles Angels, who rank second-last in the majors with 9.70 strikeouts per game. Angels batters have 36 Ks in 86 at-bats vs. Cease. Mike Trout has six Ks in nine ABs, while Jorge Soler has 13.
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Sportsnet 1, FDSN West
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 2-3, +0.58 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
It's the beginning of a new home run week, and with a cold snap hitting the league, finding the best spots for dingers and MLB player props is key today if we're going to turn a profit.
Jordan Walker's odds are as long as they've been all year in a great matchup and setting, while Jose Quintana in Coors Field is a recipe for multiple long balls tonight.
These are my favorite home run props for Monday, April 20.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Jordan Walker
+680
Kyle Tucker
+410
Jordan Walker (+680)
I thought +540 was a great HR price on St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker last Friday. This is an insane number for a hitter with elite metrics and one of the fastest swings in all of baseball.
The cold has crept in on a small Monday slate, and getting one of this year’s best HR bats at anything better than +400 in a controlled environment is a +EV gift to start the week. Walker has also more than doubled his barrel rate this year, jumping from 11.2% to 24%.
The matchup favors him against Miami Marlins righty Max Meyer's shaky command. Per Covers projections powered by THE BAT, “Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his fly balls to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s sixth-shallowest CF fences today.”
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Cardinals.TV
Kyle Tucker (+410)
Jose Quintana has yet to pitch at Coors Field this year, but a matchup vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in decent hitting conditions isn’t one the veteran lefty is likely looking forward to. This could get ugly, and L.A. should see plenty of innings against a Colorado Rockies bullpen that has been punching above its weight and may be without its three best arms today.
Bettors don’t usually get elite prices at Coors, but I’ll take the best HR park on the slate when narrowing down a small card. The value leans to left-handed bats, as Quintana isn’t tough on lefties, and books tend to shade those matchups.
Kyle Tucker at +410 is the target. He’s already gone deep at Coors in this series, handles lefties well, and carries the best price among the top-tier bats in the L.A. lineup. THE BAT grades him as a Top-15 hitter in baseball.
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SportsNet LA
Jinglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 5-33, -2.4 units
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Apr 19, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) walks to the dugout following the final out against the St. Louis Cardinals during the 10th inning at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | Erik Williams-Imagn Images
After a difficult two-week stretch, it was nice for the Yankees to have a laugher series against the Royals. They swept their first series since the opener against the Giants, the pitching staff bouncing back to limit Kansas City to six runs across the three games while Aaron Judge and Ben Rice are really finding their power strokes to lead an offensive awakening. They enter a well-deserved offday atop the standings in the AL East.
Many of their AL rivals were also in action on Sunday, so let’s recap the events of those games.
Houston Astros (8-15) 5, St. Louis Cardinals (13-8) 7
The Cardinals thoroughly outclassed the Astros in this series, scoring 23 runs in three games to continue their surprising start to the campaign just a half-game back of first. Matthew Liberatore gave St. Louis six strong innings, limiting Houston to a run on three hits and two walks with four strikeouts, the lone damage coming in the form of a Carlos Correa sac fly in the third after Taylor Trammel reached on a one-out triple. The Cardinals then ambushed starter Mike Burrows for four runs in the fifth. Masyn Winn and Pedro Pagés singled around Nathan Church walk to load the bases with two outs. Victor Scott II walked to force home the first run, JJ Wetherholt singled home the next two, and Iván Herrera singled home the fourth.
Houston wouldn’t go quietly, responding with three runs in the eighth to level the scores. Yordan Alvarez became the first in MLB to ten home runs with a two-out solo shot. Jose Altuve singled, Christian Walker walked, and a wild pitch advanced the pair to scoring position allowing both to come home on an Isaac Paredes game-tying, two-run single.
That sent the game to extra-innings, where a crucial error by Brice Matthews at third gifted St. Louis the win. His misplay of a Jordan Walker grounder followed by a Ramón Urías HBP loaded the bases, and Winn won the game with a bases-clearing triple. Houston would attempt to rally, an Altuve RBI single cutting the deficit to two, but it wasn’t enough to prevent their 13th loss in their last 16 games.
Bryan Woo gave the Mariners seven strong innings, allowing two runs on four hits and a walk along with six strikeouts. He clearly ran out of steam in that seventh inning, allowing a Corey Seager leadoff walk, Wyatt Langford single, and Joc Pederson HBP to load the bases, followed by a Josh Jung sac fly and Evan Carter RBI double. Offseason trade acquisition MacKenzie Gore was nowhere near as sharp for Texas, yielding five runs on seven hits and a walk in five innings.
All five of Seattle’s runs came vie three home runs off Gore. Rob Refsnyder led off the first with a solo shot, his first hit in a Mariners uniform. J.P Crawford struck with a two run bomb in the second after Mitch Garver drew a leadoff walk. Randy Arozarena capped off the trio with a two-run blast of his own after Julio Rodríguez kept the fifth inning alive with a two out single.
Toronto Blue Jays (8-13) 10, Arizona Diamondbacks (13-9) 4
On the verge of being swept for the second time this season, the Blue Jays bats broke out for double digit runs to salvage a win. Eight of the ten came in the first inning to tie a franchise record against starter Ryne Nelson, who managed to record just one out after allowing eight hits and a walk. In fact, the first eight Blue Jays reached safely as they sent an eventual 12 batters to the plate. Doubles from Kazuma Okamoto and Nathan Lukes were the big blows in the inning, Toronto scoring all their runs despite the ball not leaving the yard in the frame.
Okamoto would later add a solo home run to lead off the third while Lukes and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. each contributed three-hit afternoons. Kevin Gausman has been one of the best starters in baseball to open the season, so spotting him an eight-run first inning lead pretty much meant the game was over before Arizona had even come to bat. He pitched six innings of two-run ball, allowing seven hits and a walk against four strikeouts. The Diamondbacks scored consolation runs in second and sixth, the lone bright spot a pinch-hit, two run home run by Jorge Barrosa in the seventh.
Detroit Tigers (12-10) 6, Boston Red Sox (8-13) 2
Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet entered the season as the consensus favorites in the AL Cy Young race. Skubal lived up to that billing with six innings of one-run ball and ten strikeouts to silence Boston on Saturday, but Crochet couldn’t return serve. Coming off his worst start with the Red Sox — 11 runs in 1.2 innings against the Twins — Crochet allowed five runs on seven hits including a pair of homers in five innings against Detroit. It’s the third of his five starts in which he has allowed at least five runs, the southpaw left with a 7.88 ERA after departing. On the otherside, Framber Valdez authored another stellar start for the team that signed him to a three-year, $115 million deal over the offseason. He held Boston to a run on three hits and two walks with seven strikeouts in six innings, meaning he has allowed one or fewer earned runs while lasting at least six innings in four of his five starts with the Tigers.
The two sides traded runs in the first, Dillon Dingler opening the scoring with and RBI double before Willson Contreras answered in the bottom half with a solo home run. But then Detroit struck for four runs in the fifth, all with two outs after Crochet struck out the first two batters of the frame. Jahmai Jones crushed a solo blast followed by a walk from Gleyber Torres and single from Matt Vierling to set up a three run wall scraper from Dingler, giving the starlet catcher four RBIs on the day.
There would be no more scoring until the ninth, when again the teams traded runs. Torres collected an RBI single in the top half and Caleb Durbin an RBI double in the bottom of the frame to bring us to our final score, 6-2.
It was the José Ramírez show in Cleveland, the future Hall of Famer slugging a pair of solo home runs as the Guardians tagged Orioles Opening Day starter Trevor Rogers for six runs on six hits and two walks in five innings. Taylor Ward crushed a three-run blast in the Orioles’ four-run fifth to make this a one-run game, but Cleveland restored their cushion by scoring a pair in the eighth. Rookie Juan Brito hit a two-run double and Brayan Rocchio collected three hits and three RBIs batting ninth.
Columbus Clippers Travis Bazzana (12) throws the ball to first base during home opener at Huntington Park on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Ingle now has a ridiculous 1.403 OPS to begin the season. It’s one of the hottest start of any prospect in all of minor league baseball.
Crazy as it sounds, Ingle was just one of three different Clippers who had three hits. Nolan Jones went 3-for-4 with a walk while Milan Tolentino went 3-for-5 with a home run and a triple.
Kahlil Waton also impressed, going 1-for-3 with a double, two walks, a stolen base and three runs scored while Kody Huff went 2-for-4 with a home run and a hit by pitch. Stuart Fairchild also went 2-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base.
With that kind of offense, Columbus didn’t need much pitching to win … and they didn’t get much pitching. Starting pitcher Pedro Avila allowed five runs on nine hits with three strikeouts and a walk in 5.0 innings. Koby Allard allowed another three runs in his lone inning of work.
The big standout was Daniel Espino, who again tossed a scoreless inning to close out the win while striking out two. He’s getting closer folks.
What an impressive turn from the Akron pitching staff, led by none other than Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson. Wilkinson was flat out sensational in this game, throwing 5.0 perfect innings with six strikeouts. He was pulled after throwing 70 pitches.
While the bullpen wasn’t able to keep the perfect game going, it did preserve the no-hitter. Matt Jachech pitched a scoreless frame with one walk. Magnus Ellerts walked two and struck out two in a scoreless inning. Jay Driver walked one in his scoreless frame and then Carey closed out the combined no-hitter after walking a pair of batters.
RUBBERDUCKS NO-HITTER 🚨
Matt Wilkinson, Matt Jachec, Magnus Ellerts, Jay Driver, and Jack Carey combine to throw the club’s first 9-inning no-no since 2017 👀#Guardianspic.twitter.com/Qj96EKu9YX
Offensively, Alfonsin Rosario left the game after a first-inning RBI double. I hope he’s OK.
Wuilfredo Antunez homered, Jake Fox walked twice, Angel Genao doubled and Jose Devers went 1-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base. Nick Mitchell also walked and was hit by a pitch.
Lake County spoiled another excellent start from Franklin Gomez. Gomez allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits with five strikeouts and just one walk in 5.0 innings.
Unfortunately, piggy-back partner Michael Kennedy got blistered for six runs on six hits in his 2.0 innings of work to take the loss.
On offense, Jace LaViolette was given an opportunity to lead off and he responded by blasting his second home run of the season, also walking.
No one had a multi-hit game, but Aaron Walton impressively went 1-for-2 with two walks. Bennett Thompson and Anthony Silva also both reached base safely twice, going 1-for-3 with a walk apiece and Dean Curley doubled.
For his second straight start, Chase Mobley dominated opposing hitters, this time tossing 3.2 no-hit shutout innings with four strikeouts and a pair of walks.
Petty immediately followed by giving up three runs on six hits in his 3.0 innings of work. The game was still within reach until Keegan Zinn took the mound in the bottom of the ninth inning with the game tied 3-3 and quickly gave up a two-run walk-off home run.
Outfield prospect Robert Arias continued his scorching streak, going 2-for-3 with a home run, a walk and a stolen base. Dauri Fernandez went 1-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base and Anthony Martinez went 1-for-3 with a walk.
Apr 19, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter (24) reacts after being removed from the game against the Atlanta Braves in the fifth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
The Phillies just suffered their worst homestand in quite a while. They didn’t hit well, they didn’t field well, they (honestly) didn’t pitch very well either. It’s not good baseball to watch, it’s not good baseball to analyze right now. Is there anything going right for the team at this moment?
Bryce Harper has been hot of late. That’s been cool.
Brad Keller has been better lately as well after his season got off to a rocky start.
Cristopher Sanchez is awesome again. There are some good things happening for the team; they’re just hidden under about ten feet of garbage.
The question for today is: of all the things that are going wrong for the Phillies at the moment, which is likeliest to turnaround quickly for them? Some of the hitters are hitting so badly at the moment, the laws of averages seem to be in their favor at some point that they’ll bounce back. The fielding can’t be this bad (can it?). At some point soon, there has to be positive regression with something…..but what?
The scientific method has been long established. Unfortunately, when it comes to human endeavors experiments are a bit messy. The first step in the scientific method is to actually observe what is going on. This is where things get a bit tricky. The human mind is a peculiar thing and that is particularly true when it comes to memory. We often remember what we want to remember and forget what we want to forget. Other factors color that memory and sometimes alter it. Criminal justice experts constantly tell us that eyewitness testimony is extremely unreliable.
This is why the lab exists in the first place. There is nothing more emotional than following your favorite sports team. Millions of people form their mood and rate their day based on what their favorite team does. In that universe it is easy to bypass facts and go with feelings. I may seem like a cold, unfeeling analyst but I am a fan too. I have emotional reactions to what I see. The numbers insulate me from that. That’s why the lab exists.
So, we get to the question of slow starts. Before we can analyze why we have slow starts we have to establish the fact that the slow starts have been patterns. If we go through the annals of this current run we can split the Astros dynastic period into two relatively equal parts. There are the A.J. Hinch Astros and the Dusty Baker/Joe Espada Astros. We eliminate 2020 because there was no April. So, we are splitting it to 2015 to 2019 and then 2021 to 2026. We will throw in March into April when it is applicable.
2015-2019
Wins
Losses
2015
15
7
2016
7
17
2017
16
9
2018
20
10
2019
18
12
Total
76
55
If we look at the winning percentage we see .580 winning percentage. That would be equivalent to a 94-68 record in a 162 game schedule. Obviously, 2016 is an outlier and it is the only season in that run where the team did not make the playoffs. In fact, it was the only season before 2025 where the Astros did not make the playoffs. If we remove that season then the winning percentage shoots up to .645. That would be equivalent to a 104-58 record. So, if it felt like those Astros teams got off to fast starts it is because they did.
2021-2026
Wuns
Losses
2021
14
12
2022
11
10
2023
15
13
2024
10
19
2025
16
14
2026
8
15
Total
74
88
Obviously, I don’t need to translate this to a 162 game record. Given that this team went to the playoffs in four of the five seasons and came within one game of the playoffs in the other one, these starts are pretty significant. So, the first step of the scientific method is complete. There is in fact a difference between these two eras. We now move onto the next step in the process. This is where we come up with a hypothesis we can test. Unfortunately for us this will be the last step in the process. I can think of two possibilities and I will leave the reading audience to determine which one they think is more plausible.
Hypothesis One: Finding the sweet spot
One of the things you will notice when looking at the records above is that they seem to get progressively worse as we get closer to the present. When the Baker era began, the entire dynasty was intact. With each passing year, one more brick was kicked out of the wall. First it was George Springer. Then it was Carlos Correa. We then moved on to Justin Verlander (a couple of times), and finally Framber Valdez.
Each manager has their own style. Joe McCarthy might have been the best manager in baseball history record wise (.627 with the Yankees). He plugged in the same lineup every day and sat in a rocking chair. That’s easy to do when you have Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Earle Combs, and Tony Lazzeri. Baker will be a Hall of Fame manager someday and his style was wholly different. Espada seems to have taken on that style in the interim, so it makes sense to lump them together.
The Astros have used a different lineup every game this season. It wasn’t quite that bad in seasons past, but the pattern is still there. Of course, necessity is the mother of invention. When you don’t have thoroughbreds you have to do some experimenting. So, both Baker and Espada spent the early months figuring out what players could do and when they could do them. That meant how to shape platoons, what the batting order should be, and which relievers we could trust.
One old baseball adage is that Memorial Day is the day when performance stops being a trend and become something resembling reality. Unfortunately, that means another month of flailing around. Some of that is due to the “back of the baseball card” mentality. Yet, some of that is genuine small sample size issues. This is particularly true when looking at relievers. Obviously, Espada in particular has come under fire for how he uses his relievers. Either way, by the end of May this team finds its level based on figuring out who they can trust that particular season.
Hypothesis Two: It’s a training issue
My podcast partner and I (“Born on the Bayou Sports”) raised this issue earlier this year. We were wondering why certain pitchers weren’t building up innings this spring. Suddenly, you have four starting pitchers on injured reserve. Luck? Possily. Coincidence? Maybe. However, when you add that to the total number of injuries the team has faced in recent seasons in the early going.
Obviously, the change in trainers this offseason put that in the spotlight. Last season, the Astros had the most injuries in baseball and they are currently in the lead in that department. Is it an aging roster? That could be one explanation. Maybe it is just bad luck. The team was extremely healthy in 2022 when they won the World Series. Some seasons just go that way. Yet, when you have two consecutive seasons of players going down at a record pace it is difficult to chalk that up to chance.
This leaves us with two possibilities (of which both can be true). Either there are still issues with the day to day treatment of aches and pains. There are still issues with how often those are happening, how often they keep players from playing, and possibly their return to play. The second possibility comes back to Spring Training itself. Are these players ramping up in the right way during Spring Training? Are they getting ready?
Putting it all together
Of course, both is a possibility. Neither is a possibility. We are not in a position to test these hypotheses yet. That will have to come later. It would involve breaking down how the other 29 teams do business and determining how the Astros are different if at all. My own hypothesis is that both are true in part. A fungible roster demands time to figure out exactly who can do what. There are also probably some things the team could do differently to remain more healthy and start faster out of Spring Training. What do you think?
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - APRIL 19: Joc Pederson #3 of the Texas Rangers looks on during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on April 19, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning.
Evan Grant writes that McKenzie Gore’s subpar road trip shows that he’s not yet at the level that the Texas Rangers hope that he can achieve.
Kennedi Landry writes that Gore allowed three home runs in a start for the first time since 2023 in the series finale loss to Seattle.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - APRIL 16: Leody Taveras #30 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates after hitting a single during the ninth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on April 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Guardians defeated the Orioles 4-2. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Orioles had a bad week. They lost two series, and went a combined 2-5 in that span. Neither win was particularly easy, the first requiring them to climb out of a 7-1 hole and the second seeing them take until the eighth inning to score at all. It’s just the latest development in what has been a challenging start to the 2026 campaign. Despite these struggles, could there still be reason for optimism with these Orioles?
Let’s start with the obvious, these Orioles were only “supposed” to good, not great, anyway. Think back to pre-season predications across the industry. Most outlets had the O’s pegged for 85 or so wins. Some more, some less. That represents a step up from 2025, certainly, but nowhere near elite contender status. If things went right for them, maybe they get t0 90 wins and snag the AL East crown. If they crater, they might not even be a .500 squad.
Well, with the season less than a month old, you would have to say their luck has been more bad than good.
Injuries have, yet again, been a problem. Before the season even started they lost Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, their projected starting second and third basemen, respectively, to the IL. Andrew Kittredge, potentially the team’s set up man, and Keegan Akin, an important middle-inning option, joined them on the shelf later in spring. Since the regular season has begin, they’ve added starting catcher Adley Rutschman, starting right fielder Tyler O’Neill, rotation piece Zach Eflin, bench bat Ryan Moutcastle, and left-handed reliever Dietrich Enns to the infirmary report. It has been a blood bath.
As a result, new manager Craig Albernaz has had less flexibility to adjust a lineup that has failed to meet expectations early.
Samuel Basallo is still getting his feet under him and carries a meager 49 wRC+ in his first full season. He’s starting behind the plate most days anyway, because the other option is Sam Huff, a fringy backstop with limited offensive upside.
Coby Mayo isn’t having the turnaround he hoped for at the plate, though his improvement in the field has been much appreciated. His 36 wRC+ is the worst on the team, and yet he is getting in the lineup regularly because injuries have eaten away the infield depth the team once had.
The outfield is a work in progress. Taylor Ward (143 wRC+) and Leody Taveras (190 wRC+) are adjusting just fine to their new team. But finding that third reliable member has been tough. Colton Cowser (39 wRC+) and Dylan Beavers (74 wRC+) have been slow out of the gate, and both are left-handed. Blaze Alexander, a righty, is getting into the mix now, though that feels like a band-aid given his lack of experience in the role, and his bat has cooled significantly the last week or two anyway.
But you probably already know about this negative stuff. Let’s talk about why the sky is not, in fact, falling.
Start with the schedule. Many folks pointed to the Orioles “soft” start to the season a reason why they needed to come out of the gate on fire. So to have a 10-12 record is disappointing. But the reality is that those perceptions were based on 2025, not 2026. The teams the Orioles have played aren’t all that bad. Ten of their 22 games have been against teams with .500 records or better. No one else in the AL East has played more than six games against teams with winning records. Obviously, you need to beat good teams in order to be a good team yourself, but the Orioles are not losing to a bunch of cellar dwellers here.
Back to the injuries. It sounds like things are improving, ever so slightly, on that front.
Rutschman is eligible to return on Tuesday, though he may play in a rehab game or two first. He is with the team on the road trip and has been participating in all of the baseball activities. Bringing him back will allow the Orioles to improve their defense behind the plate and give their offense a boost, since he was one of their top hitters when he went out.
Holliday has restarted his rehab after being pulled off of it briefly with wrist soreness. That doesn’t mean he will be ready to play at the big league level immediately, but it is a good sign. His return likely pushes Mayo back down to Triple-A. In turn, that will allow Jeremiah Jackson, who leads the team in RBI, to move over to third base. Perhaps that is an overall downgrade defensively, but it should help the lineup.
O’Neill’s return is more ambiguous since he is dealing with a concussion, which can linger. But reports have been fairly positive, and he is eligible to get back on the field any day now. Once he is back on the roster, it should be simple enough for the Orioles to DFA one of Jonathan Rodríguez or Weston Wilson, though they may instead option Cowser or Beavers if they think it would help them long term.
The point here is that the depth should be getting back to the level the team hoped for coming into the season. Depth alone doesn’t get you wins, but it does allow Albernaz to cycle through players and play the hot hand. The players coming back have a batter chance of actually getting hot than many of the names they would be replacing.
On top of that, there is some data you could, admittedly, cherry pick, to tell you that a few key players should start to see their season’s turn around.
Starting in the lineup, we are yet to get the absolute best from Gunnar Henderson or Pete Alonso. Henderson has just a .211 BABIP despite having a hard-hit rate that sits in the 88th percentile of MLB. That should balance out at some point, yielding a higher batting average, present stolen base opportunities, and create offense for the O’s. Alonso has one of the highest average exit velocities (94.7 mph, 96th percentile) and hard hit rates (57.7%, 95th percentile) in the sport. He needs to get the ball in the air more, and his career pedigree says he will. Once that happens, with runners on in front of him, the Orioles are going to score a lot more runs.
Right now, the Orioles are tied for 19th in runs scored in MLB. That is only slightly better than where they finished (24th) in a disappointing 2025. In order for this team to compete for a playoff spot, they need to be a top 10 lineup. The talent that was accumulated this offseason feels like it should be able to accomplished that. But it needs its best players to perform to their ability, and they need to get healthier overall.
It’s a similar story in the rotation, where the Orioles need more out of their absolute best players: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and Shane Baz. None of them have performed to their ability, but the top line numbers obscure some good things. Rogers, for example, has a 4.08 ERA on the season, but his xERA is just 2.46 and his FIP is 3.69. Bradish looked much better in his most recent start, and that is reflected in the peripherals. His 5.49 ERA is massive compared to his 3.06 xERA and 3.18 FIP. The difference for Baz is not as stark, but it is there. He has a 4.91 ERA but a 4.21 xERA and 3.95 FIP. It’s not unrealistic to think each of them could lower their ERAs by up to a run in the next month. That would transform the team’s outlook.
On the whole, the Orioles’ pitching staff is right about where they need to be. They are 13th in ERA (3.91), 9th in xERA (3.60), and 13th in FIP (3.98). A middle-of-the-road pack of pitchers and a high-end lineup seemed to be the O’s path to success this year. But those numbers include their bullpen playing to a rather high level. A performance, by the way, that is largely backed up by solid peripherals. The rotation, on the other hand, has underperformed and has room to grow. That’s not a bad spot to be in if you believe in the Orioles’ ability to actually tap into those underlying numbers and get them to emerge on the field.
Of course, you can point out players that might go in the other direction too. Will guys like Jackson or Taveras keep hitting like all-stars? Probably not. Will the entire bullpen continue to pitch at such a high level? Eh, don’t bet on it. But getting more out of your stars, who are positioned at intentional spots in your lineup or rotation, should more than outweigh the dip in performance from the players coming out of nowhere to give you a temporary boost.
Things are not as bad as they have felt this last week. Given everything that has happened to the Orioles so far, they simply need to keep their head above water and give time for their talent to rise to the top. It is possible it won’t ever come to fruition, but it’s really all they can do at this point.
GREENSBORO, NC - FEBRUARY 25: Michael Sansone #18 of Fairfield University pitches the ball during a game between Fairfield and UNC Greensboro at UNCG Baseball Stadium on February 25, 2020 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Andy Mead/ISI Photos/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Red Sox farm, unlike the Major League team, actually enjoyed solid pitching all the way around on Sunday. Worcester’s shutout performance in Nashville (Brewers AAA) was courtesy of Michael Sansone. The 26-year-old Connecticut native may well end up putting together some innings on the Major League squad in 26; he lacks any sort of velocity but gets by with control. He allowed just two hits in six innings; Nate Eaton beat that on his own, including his 2nd home run of the series in the midst of his three-hit afternoon. This one, with Sansone’s great start, was never really in doubt, but the WooSox may have benefitted from a bit more offense. Still, you can’t look a gift horse that is a 4-2 win in the mouth, especially when it comes at the heels of five straight losses and a total of five runs in three games combined.
Hayden Mullins, the former Auburn Tiger and 2022 12th round draft pick, had perhaps the best outing of his professional career. Mullins has more velocity and less control than Sansone, but the latter didn’t seem to be the case in Altoona (Pirates AA), as he rolled through eight scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and just one walk. That’s not to say he was constantly throwing strikes; 30 of his 76 pitches were outside the strike zone, but the strikes came at the right times. He’s been struggling so far to start 2026, so this was nice.
Day off for Franklin Arias, and in his absence the team had its three top slots in the lineup each strike out multiple times. In fact, the Sea Dogs only had one extra base hit on Sunday from Miguel Bleis. Even still, they strung together a W.
The only problem with Marcus Phillips’ start on Sunday against Bowling Green (Rays High-A) was that it didn’t go super long. It lasted just 58 pitches, but he amassed seven strikeouts, and then things went south in the bullpen after Phillips was pulled in the fourth. But, things didn’t go SO well for the Hot Rods that the Drive couldn’t take the lead back in the bottom of the eighth with a Natanael Yuten RBI single, which had a .268 WPA. As the entire arm emerged victorious, this win was also not pretty, but it was a win!
The RidgeYaks break their five-game losing streak holding a total run differential of -18 with a defense-first win. They got to scoring runs on Hickory (Rangers A) early, holding a 4-0 lead, peaking with Starlyn Nunez’ RBI triple, and the bullpen held their own following a short, but good, start by Kansas native Barrett Morgan. Prior to this game, the Crawdads had hung a total of 8.8 runs a game on Salem, so this was a refreshing display of effective pitching by committee!
Yordan Alvarez
Sonny Gray
Dylan Cease
Jordan Walker
Kyle Tucker 
