SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JULY 19: Robbie Ray #38 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on July 19, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Olivia Vanni/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s time for game two between the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Angels, arguably the two worst teams in baseball. Yay! What fun!
Robbie Ray takes the mound for the Giants, in what is almost certainly either his last or penultimate start with the Giants. Ray is 8-6 on the year, with a 3.33 ERA, a 4.60 FIP, and 96 strikeouts against 54 walks in 110.2 innings. He gave up three runs (one earned) in four innings against the Seattle Mariners his last time out.
For the Angels, it’s righty Ryan Johnson, a 23-year old rookie. In 10 games this year, he’s 2-4 with a 6.10 ERA, a 6.26 FIP, and 30 strikeouts to 16 walks in 38.1 innings. He gave up just one run in five innings against the Detroit Tigers in his last game.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 19: Sonny Gray #54 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on July 19, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s the most beautiful day of the summer and we’ve got ourselves a bona fide pitcher’s duel that will start in the late afternoon and carry us into the gloaming.
Sonny Gray, whose 2.48 ERA would be fifth in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify, will take the bump in the top of the first to try to notch two-in-a-row for the hottest team in baseball. In the bottom of the first it’ll be Dylan Cease, who will likely end the night as the American League strikeout leader.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - JULY 24: Luis Rengifo #21 of the San Diego Padres reacts after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins in the eighth inning of the game at loanDepot park on July 24, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images) | Getty Images
San Diego Padres (51-53) at Miami Marlins (52-52), July 24, 2026, 1:10 p.m. PST
Don’t troll in your comments; create conversation rather than destroying it
Remember Gaslamp Ball is basically a non-profanity site
Out of respect to broadcast partners who have paid to carry the game, no mentions of “alternative” (read: illegal) viewing methods are allowed in our thread
Mets star Juan Soto's MRI results Saturday showed a Grade 2 left calf strain and the team placed him on the 10-day injured list.
In a corresponding move, New York recalled Eric Wagaman from Triple-A Syracuse.
Interim manager Andy Green said Saturday more people both in-house and outside of the team are looking at the MRI to determine a timeline for Soto's return. He added that it will take Soto longer to return this time than it did during his first calf injury (a right calf strain) earlier in April.
"Anticipation right now is it's going to take longer than last time; he was out about three weeks last time, so it's a little more significant than last time," Green said. "It's not what we were hoping for... We'll be without him for a period of time now."
Green was asked if Soto may not play again this year due to the expected recovery period, but said they "would not characterize it that way at this point in time."
Soto left Friday's 4-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth inning with left calf soreness, getting pinch-hit for by Jorge Polanco. He walked twice in his two at-bats and ran the bases without any noticeable issues.
After the loss, Green expressed some "concern" about the injury that limited Soto to DH duties most of the week. He also did not play in the series finale against the Milwaukee Brewers so he could try to have "48 hours to get the calf thing completely behind him" with the team's off day on Thursday. When asked Saturday if there's anything the team could have done differently with the injury, Green mentioned how Soto wanted to try to continue playing.
"Someone like him wants to be on the baseball field, he wants to play," Green said. "And the desire to be on the field is why he's so special in what he does. So this last week we gave him at-bats, we gave him rest at times when we felt were appropriate, and then yesterday he couldn't get over the hump. Is it possible we could've looked back and thought we could have moved a bit quicker on this? Given where we're at today, yes.
"I don't know if that ultimately changes the situation we're in right now. I respect somebody who's trying to get on the field and play through things."
Overall across 84 games this season, the All-Star is hitting .283 with a .947 OPS and has 21 home runs, 52 RBI, and 63 walks.
Salvador Perez will likely join George Brett in baseball's Hall of Fame after his playing days are done. And now he's surpassed him in one of the most significant statistical categories in Kansas City Royals history.
Perez hit his 318th home run Saturday, July 25 at Comerica Park in Detroit, dislodging Brett atop the Royals' all-time home run list, a spot he'd held for 40 years.
Perez's home run off Tigers pitcher Kyle Finnegan was his 15th this season, the 11th consecutive full season that Perez, a nine-time All-Star, reached that plateau. Perez debuted with the Royals in 2011 and has signed multiple contract extensions to remain a Royal.
He'd already joined Brett in another revered circle, leading the Royals to the 2015 World Series championship, 30 years after Brett hit a career-high 30 homers and finished second in AL MVP voting to lead Kansas City to its first title.
The Royals' home run list is a testament to the style of play the franchise developed in spacious Kauffman Stadium. Brett set the franchise record in 1986 with his 194th home run, topping Amos Otis, who was far better known as a basestealer in his 17-year career.
Longtime first baseman Mike Sweeney ranks No. 3 on the list with 197 homers, while Alex Gordon – like Otis, better known for speed and defense – is fifth with 190.
Perez hit a career-high 48 home runs in 2021, leading the majors in longballs and RBIs, with 121. He produced another 30-homer, 100-RBI season in 2025, his age-35 season. Perez, who has largely ceded catching duties to Carter Jensen, is eligible for free agency after this season. He's hit 242 of his home runs as a catcher.
DETROIT, MI - JULY 10: Pitcher Tim Mayza #37 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after being charged with a balk that scored James Outman of the Detroit Tigers during the sixth inning at Comerica Park on July 10, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
This week, I asked you what the Phillies were going to end up acquiring at the trade deadline by way of a poll. Here are the results:
Maybe this is all of us thinking the bare minimum will be a reliever, but there seems to be a pretty good split amongst people about what the Phillies will end up doing. What we can kind of say is that the general consensus is that there will be multiple players brought into the organization once the dust has settled.
There seems to be a large swath of players that have been linked to the team right now. Anywhere from one year rentals to players that are on huge contracts that would require teams to help pay down the remaining salary to players with team control that would help the Phillies beyond 2026. With the CBA ending soon and negotiations already contentious, adding long term money without a clear picture of what will be allowed in the future as far as spending is probably not something the team is terribly interested in.
Who knows though, maybe that’s a way to get the opposing team to ask for a little less in a trade.
Saturday evening gives the Texas Rangers a chance to take a 2-0 series lead over the Seattle Mariners and move 2.5 games ahead of them in the AL West standings.
The home team picked up a 5-4 victory in the four-game series opener, but the MLB odds have the Rangers as slight underdogs at home tonight.
My Mariners vs. Rangers predictions and MLB picks for July 25 are backing the home dog in a low-scoring contest.
Who will win Mariners vs Rangers today: Rangers moneyline (-103)
Woo is allowing a .342 wOBA and .461 SLG to opponents on the road, compared to .207 and .255 at home. He’s also surrendered twice the homers and more than double the earned runs on road trips, with a 6.28 ERA that is four runs higher than his T-Mobile mark.
The Texas Rangers rank third in flyball rate since the All-Star break, and second in line-drive rate. They’re also Top 10 in BABIP and wRC+.
I’m backing them to beat the struggling Mariners, down to -115.
COVERS INTEL: July hasn’t been kind to Woo. In 11 IP this month, he’s posted a 5.29 FIP thanks to allowing three HR on just nine fly balls.
Mariners vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-112)
Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has struggled to keep the ball in the yard of late. Thankfully, he’s facing a Seattle lineup that isn’t built to take advantage of that fact.
Since the break, the Mariners rank fifth-worst in ISO, sixth-worst in BABIP, and Bottom 10 in xwOBA and wRC+.
Eovaldi’s struggles vs LHH also won’t be an issue. The Mariners have hit just seven HR from that side of the plate in 358 plate appearances since the first of July, with a .105 ISO that ranks third-lowest in the majors.
The solid Texas bullpen will keep this low-scoring.
Take the Under to -120.
Jason Ence's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 12-15, -4.18 units
Over/Under bets: 16-11 +4.25 units
Mariners vs Rangers weather
Clear skies and light winds blowing in towards right-center field should help both pitchers keep the ball in the yard tonight.
Mariners vs Rangers odds
Moneyline: Mariners -107 | Rangers +103
Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+158) | Rangers +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+101) | Under 7.5 (-112)
Mariners vs Rangers trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Rangers.
How to watch Mariners vs Rangers and game info
Location
Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
Date
Saturday, July 25, 2026
First pitch
7:15 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Mariners starting pitcher
Bryan Woo (7-6, 4.16 ERA)
Rangers starting pitcher
Nathan Eovaldi (9-8, 4.21 ERA)
Mariners vs Rangers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Jaxon Wiggins during a Spring Training workout this past February in Mesa, Arizona | | Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Cubs fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
Earlier this week in the SB Nation Reacts survey, I asked you which of six Cubs prospects you considered the most untouchable in a trade at the deadline.
The final result of the survey should not surprise you:
Jaxon Wiggins seems like a pitching prospect who will actually make it to the Cubs rotation, though it might not be this year. After making two early-season starts at Triple-A Iowa, Wiggins missed a lot of this year due to injury. After making a couple of low-level starts in the Arizona Complex League and at South Bend, he returned to Iowa earlier this month and the results have not been good: three starts, 12.91 ERA, 2.739 WHIP, and probably the most discouraging sign: 11 walks among 44 batters faced, a 25 percent walk rate which is pretty bad.
If you were hoping Wiggins would help the Cubs this year, probably best to put those thoughts aside. Perhaps he’ll be ready in 2027.
I mentioned Owen Ayers as a possible trade chip in a deal for Reid Detmers yesterday. I’d still do that.
As for the others, Jefferson Rojas might be a good trade piece, as he’s blocked at multiple infield positions. Kane Kepley has hit well, but has not played above South Bend. Jonathon Long is having a good year at Iowa but, like Rojas, is blocked at his position (first base).
And James Triantos was just called up to the Cubs on Friday.
Here are the results of the national questions asked in the SB Nation Reacts survey.
My only reaction to this: What’s up with the other 15 percent? Justin Verlander is absolutely, positively a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He’s the best pitcher of his generation, won three Cy Young Awards and his 82.2 bWAR ranks 24th all-time.
Since individual pitcher wins are less important now than at any time in MLB history, even 21 percent thinking there will be another 300-game winner is a large number of voters.
Once Verlander and Max Scherzer retire, and both likely will after this year, the active leader in wins will be Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale, tied at 156. Cole is 35 and Sale is 37 and both might have trouble getting to 200 wins, much less 300.
The current leader in career wins for a pitcher under age 30 is Logan Webb. He has 75.
300 wins is the relic of a bygone era. The new benchmark is probably 200.
BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 24: Trevor Rogers #28 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Friday, July 24, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Alyssa Piazza/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Right before the season, the Orioles signed Shane Baz to a contract extension before ever throwing a pitch with the team. Just in the last week, they signed Kyle Bradish, a much more familiar face to Orioles fans, to a contract extension as well. Now that Mike Elias is starting to actually spend money on starting pitchers who he’s already familiar with, could another move be coming?
In this week’s survey, I asked Orioles fans whether the team should make Trevor Rogers the next guy to get a contract extension. I expected a majority in favor, but even so I was blown away by the margin here. This was the result:
91%! You can’t get 91% of many groups of people to agree about anything. After what Rogers did last year and what he’s been doing since the start of June, Orioles fans are ready to see more of him, and they’re ready to spend some of David Rubenstein’s money to make it happen.
Whether the Orioles brain trust themselves have this same appetite is less certain. One complicating factor is that Rogers is now just two months away from hitting free agency, so if they’re going to make an offer, it’s going to have to be big enough to keep Rogers from rolling the dice the rest of the way and finding out what he can get on the open market. Baz and Bradish had much more time remaining, making the appeal of guaranteed money more interesting for them.
Another complicating factor about that coming free agency is that if the Orioles fall out of the picture over their next eight games before the trade deadline, Rogers might have more value if he is traded to a real contender. Or perhaps the team would choose to just keep him to season’s end and extend him a qualifying offer, expecting him to decline. This would net them a draft pick in 2027.
Rogers is a tough guy to value, since his track record is one without much durability and without consistent quality. His season high in major league innings is 133, and he hit that one five years ago. He has never had two good seasons in a row. That includes last year into this year; Rogers has a 4.17 ERA after last night. It’s mostly fine, but not “sign that guy for all the years and all of the dollars” exciting. There is a lot riding on whether he can keep this current hot streak going until season’s end.
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 24: Ketel Marte #4 of the Arizona Diamondbacks, left, celebrates after Arizona defeated the Washington Nationals 3-2 at Nationals Park on July 24, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Diamondbacks News
Eduardo Rodriguez and Paul Sewald Bounce Back in Series Opening Win After each got lit up in their previous outings, Eduardo Rodriguez and Paul Sewald pitched the Diamondbacks to victory on Friday night. Rodriguez twirled a quality start and Sewald got back on the horse with another save.
Lovullo: Corbin Burnes Targeting an Early-September Return Burnes is going to want to prove to himself and others that he really is recovered from his surgery. The Diamondbacks need to know if he will be effective. But, at this point, it feels like there is something to be gained from just penciling Burnes in for a return in spring instead.
Lovullo Shakes Up the Lineup In this iteration, Corbin Carroll returns to batting leadoff and Ketel Marte moves down to cleanup.
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 20: Bryce Elder #55 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the third inning during the game against the San Diego Padres at Truist Park on July 20, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Jack Casey/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After a nice extra-innings win to start the weekend series on Saturday, the Braves hope to secure an early series win with Bryce Elder on the mound at Camden Yards. The Orioles will counter with the big 27-year-old righty Brandon Young.
Bryce had a good start to the season, but has had a rough time recently. That said, he was reportedly dealing with some fatigue and had a better start coming out of the All-Star break, so lets hope that was him getting back on track a bit. He still profiles as a back of the rotation starter on average, with season numbers basically in line with his career average, but the variance can be pretty wide with him from game to game. He’s been throwing his cutter and sinker a decent bit more in June and July, so that will be something interesting to keep an eye on as we hope for another good Bryce Elder night.
Brandon Young has less than a year of MLB service time, but is nearly 28. Through 28 starts and 149 innings, the 6’6 righty has a career 4.53 xFIP and 4.43 FIP, but his ERA is a nice 3.25 this year. His fastball is a tick below average velo and he shows average extension, but he has some nice induced vertical break on the pitch that makes it play well from a moderately high 43 degree arm angle. He mixes in a splitter, slider, sinker, and curve off of his four-seamer, but the four-seamer is by far the most impressive pitch of the bunch. As such, he only strikes out 7.31 batters per 9 innings, walking a solid 3.26. He isn’t an especially impressive pitcher, so if the Braves can avoid chasing his sub-par secondaries, they should be able to find some success.
Both the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins are trying to hit the reset button for the second half of the 2026 season. Neither team is playing good baseball. Despite the poor play, this weekend series is vital for the Padres and Marlins to remain in the wildcard chase.
Friday’s Results
With the game tied at two, Friars pinch-hitter Luis Rengifo hit a game-winning two-run home run that propelled the team to a 4-2 victory over the Marlins. The loss extended the home team’s losing streak to 10 games, as they are on the verge of tying the franchise record of 11 games. It has been done three times, with the last occurring in June 2011.
Miami’s two runs came on solo home runs by Joe Mack and Heriberto Hernandez. The Padres’ other two runs came on an RBI single by Manny Machado in the fifth inning and a sacrifice fly by Jackson Merrill in the fourth inning.
Taking the mound: Randy Vasquez (SD) vs Eury Perez (MIA)
Randy Vasquez will be the opener for today’s game. But no complaints from the Friar Faithful about the results from JP Sears (2-3, 4.38 ERA) with the Padres in 2026. He has been steady in his five starts after being called up in late June. The lone negative is that Sears only averages five innings per start, which is why he is the bulk pitcher this afternoon. But Friars manager Craig Stammen will not complain, as Sears has kept the games close for the offense to do their late-inning magic.
The left-hander’s control has been outstanding, as he struck out 20 batters while giving up only eight walks. Opponents are hitting .242 against Sears; he has been excellent at generating weak contact with runners in scoring position.
He may not be a hard-throwing starter, but Sears is an ideal back-end rotation option.
The Marlins have an elite starting rotation, as Eury Perez (5-7, 3.53 ERA) has been outstanding this season. He has anchored the rotation in the absence of Max Meyer and Sandy Alcantara’s inconsistencies. Perez has struck out 104 batters in 91.2 innings pitched, as he generates plenty of swing-and-misses in his starts. The 23-year-old has been dominant with his outstanding fastball (99-101 MPH), a devastating slider, and a sweeping changeup that keeps hitters guessing.
In 17 starts, opposing teams are hitting .199 against him. And over his last seven starts, he has allowed two runs or fewer for a 1.14 ERA. Unfortunately, the Marlins offense has been non-existent when he is on the mound.
Jul 25, 1991; Chicago, IL, USA; FILE PHOTO; Toronto Blue Jays infielder Ed Sprague in action against the Chicago White Sox at Comiskey Park. Mandatory Credit: Imagn Images
Today marks the 59th birthday of Ed Sprague, former third baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Sprague spent eight seasons with the Blue Jays, from 1991 until his trade to the Oakland Athletics on July 31, 1998. In return, the Jays acquired Scott Rivette, who ultimately never reached the major leagues.
During his time in Toronto, Sprague posted a .245 batting average, a .315 on-base percentage, and a .419 slugging percentage, tallying 113 home runs and 418 RBIs over 888 games.
While Sprague may not have been a superstar, he, like his predecessor Kelly Gruber, delivered one standout season that exceeded his usual performance. However, Gruber was known for his stronger defensive skills.
Sprague’s breakout year came in 1996, when he set career highs in runs (88), hits (146), home runs (36), RBIs (101), walks (60), and slugging percentage (.496). It stands among the best single seasons by a Blue Jays third baseman—a true outlier in his career. Notably, this was also during a period when Roger Clemens’ “trainer” was around the team.
Ed later admitted to using steroids, as well as amphetamines—a common practice among players at the time to combat the fatigue of baseball’s long season. Energy drinks like Red Bull weren’t available then, and amphetamines were not banned in baseball until 2006.
One of Sprague’s most unforgettable moments came in Game 2 of the 1992 World Series, when he launched a dramatic, go-ahead two-run homer in the ninth inning off Atlanta closer Jeff Reardon. For a year, it stood as the biggest home run in Blue Jays history until Joe Carter’s iconic walk-off in 1993. Without Sprague’s clutch hit, Toronto might have fallen behind two games to none—a daunting deficit to overcome.
Beyond his standout 1996 campaign, Sprague’s career was solid but unspectacular. He made the National League All-Star team in 1999 as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates, batting .267/.352/.465 with 22 home runs. He later played for San Diego, Boston, returned to San Diego, and finished his career in Seattle.
Over 11 major league seasons, Sprague hit 152 home runs and compiled a .247/.318/.419 career slash line.
Sprague’s father, also named Ed, was a major league pitcher for eight seasons. His wife, Kristen Babb-Sprague, is an Olympic gold medalist in synchronized swimming.
In recent years, Ed Sprague Jr. has served as the Director of Player Development for the Oakland Athletics. He was at the celebration for the World Series winning teams last week.
Jul 24, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Grant Holmes (center) meets with coach Jeremy Hefner (left) and catcher Joey Bart (right) during the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images
Grant Holmes’ starts this season are getting to be a bit like a choose-your-adventure book where no matter what choices you make, the story ends up the same.
He hasn’t had a truly disastrous start in terms of putting the team in a hole this season, getting charged with more than three runs just once (five on May 1 at Colorado). In fact, he’s been charged with exactly two or three runs in well more than half of his appearances (13 of his 20).
That’s not bad on its face, but it’s a stat that becomes worse when you realize he’s thrown six innings just three times just once in his last 16 outings after doing so twice in his first three starts of the season.
His last four starts have been exactly five innings, and he didn’t make it through five innings in the four appearances before that. With a depleted rotation and a bullpen that the team treats as taxed due to shorter-than-preferred outings by the rotation, Holmes-as-starter is part of the problem rather than part of the solution.
He’s got a 3.79 ERA (89 ERA-), which is very nice, but a 4.82 FIP (116 FIP-) and a 4.63 xFIP (109 xFIP-), which are both below-average marks. Essentially, he’s been continuing to get away with it, at least to a degree, helped in part by the strong defense behind him. That the Braves have continued to need to rely on him as heavily as they have through the first four months of the season drills home their need to add one, if not two starters before the August 3 Trade Deadline.
In a perfect world where Atlanta had a healthy Spencer Schwellenbach and A.J. Smith-Shawver, Holmes’ role would likely have been different. A rash of in-season starter injuries during the season have only amplified the Braves’ need to consistently throw Holmes out there as a starter every five or six days. But no one who follows the Braves feels any more confident about Holmes being tasked with starting a playoff game than they did at the start of the season.
And yet, pending a few ongoing rehabilitations, that could be the case as things currently stand considering Holmes’ ERA is third-best on the team among starters behind only Chris Sale and Martín Pérez. (In theory, the Braves shouldn’t even consider that given how much worse his peripherals are… but…)
Holmes has served his role this season. He’ll continue to serve a role once the Trade Deadline has passed, But his five-inning outing in Friday’s 7-6 win over Baltimore where he allowed three on six hits was more proof of this critical starter role not being what would best serve the Braves as the stretch run approaches.
The sad thing is, Holmes has been good, if not dominant through nine batters: a 2.98 FIP and 3.92 xFIP. In his starts so far, he’s allowed just two homers to the first nine batters, has a 48/17 K/BB ratio, and has seen four or more of the first nine batters reach base just five times in all of his starts. Even on a pure runs basis, the first nine batters have scored in just six of his starts. There’s a clear role for him that isn’t “take the ball every five days and hope that the game is still within reach by the time the team sees fit to remove him, while trying to balance their chance of winning the game against their desire to rest the bullpen.” The Braves even shunted him in that role for a little bit, before injuries pulled him back into a starting spot.
The starts expected to be made the rest of this series by Bryce Elder and Reynaldo López, who have similar problems with less obvious solutions, are likely to only add more fuel to the fire of the Braves’ need to make a starter move (or two).
DETROIT, MI - JULY 24: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers pitches during the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Friday, July 24, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Izzy Rincon/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Thanks in part to the 3rd wild card and mostly to the bizarre mediocrity of most of the teams in 2026, here we are 9 days before the trading deadline and only 8 of the 30 teams are not at least within 4 games of a wild card spot.
This is what happens when a team can lead the AL West with a record of 52-51 and playing .529 ball gets you sole possession of 1st place in the AL Central. In the National League even the 51-53 Padres sit just 4 games back of WC 3 in a league that has 3 “haves” (Dodgers, Brewers, Braves) and a whole lot of meh.
Some Q’s and A’s around the upcoming flurry of activity, with a note that sadly the Q’s have a better shot at the post-season.
Q: Will There Be 22 “Buyers”?
A: No, there are 22 contenders still in theory, but now is when teams need to take a serious look at themselves and ask, “Do we really have a team that’s likely to beat out a crowded field?”
The reality is that for so many of these teams, not only might they have several teams to pass in the standings or several teams nipping at their heels, their actual record suggests their roster isn’t really all that.
What makes it murky for some teams is that they might be riding a hot streak or bouncing back from a woeful start, but do you mistake momentum or sustained improvement? Teams will have to make hard decisions and while most will probably want to push their chips closer to the middle of the table, some will take a “reality check” and step back.
Q: What domino effects might we see?
A: One that comes to mind is the crucial decision the Detroit Tigers have to make around Tarik Skubal. At the end of May, the Tigers sat at 22-38 and were 2 months away from at least cashing in big on Skubal’s value as a deadline rental. But Detroit has won 16 of its last 21 and suddenly sits just 3.5 back of a wild card spot and 5 games out of 1st place.
This comes with a series of caveats: The Tigers are still 4 games under .500, have 4 teams to pass in the wild card, 3 in the division. And they can’t reasonably to keep winning 75% of their games.
The domino effect comes with Skubal being on or off the market. If on the market the bidding war for him will be fierce but if the Tigers decide to keep Skubal in a quest to make the post-season and go deep into it, attention will turn to the perceived “2nd best SP” on the block and some of the next tier SPs will see their value rise. Those possible names include Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, and Robbie Ray.
Q: So Are There Going To Be Serious Discussions Around Shea Langeliers?
A: What’s known about Langeliers is that he is under contract control through 2028 and is regarded around the league as one of the best overall catchers in MLB, albeit with some known flaws.
The A’s public position is, “We have zero interest in trading Langeliers,” which is what they should say if they have zero interest and what they should say if they have lots of interest. Other teams’ stance is, “Well sure we would love to add Langeliers,” which is to say they have a catcher who isn’t as good and buyers tend to want to get better.
So what is reality behind the public smoke? Probably that the A’s aren’t keen to move Langeliers unless they are approached like they were last July by AJ Preller determined to pry away Mason Miller. He offered a deal “too good to pass up” and the A’s felt they had to say yes even though they had not intended to move Miller.
The truth, though, is that while most teams are trying to contend with a primary catcher providing less value there are not very many of them who are going to inquire, seriously, about adding a good catcher at the deadline. If you look at the teams most in need of an upgrade at catcher, they are probably more focused on Skubals and Holmeses and Peraltas and Rays than they are on Langeliers.
Now there are exceptions. The Red Sox (Patrick Sandoval, presumably by season’s end Garrett Crochet) and the Yankees (Max Fried and Gerrit Cole) recently got starting pitchers back and have deep enough rotations that they could prioritize adding a top notch catcher. The Rays also have pitching depth and the White Sox just lost their primary catcher, Kyle Teel, so they could pivot to catcher as a first priority.
The question is whether any of those teams match up well with the A’s — do they have the right controllable pitching/prospects and would they part with them — and would they overpay to make it worth the A’s while? Generally you don’t see controllable catchers moved at the deadline; it’s more of an off-season conversation as it was with Sean Murphy. So I’d bet against it.
Q: How Active Will The A’s Be?
A: Given the unlikelihood of any serious conversations around Langeliers, probably not nearly as active as you might want to see given how many holes have sprung up on the SS Athletico. The A’s don’t have the pitching buyers are seeking, they are not going to offer recently extended core pieces in Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson, and Lawrence Butler’s poor performance has put his contract squarely under water anyway.
A natural trade chip in Mark Leiter Jr. has been paused by a hip impingement that make take Leiter Jr. entirely off the market, same with Luis Severino’s sore shoulder. Carlos Cortes might have been intriguing to teams when he was hitting well over .300 with a sky high OBP, but lately he has been really into “bouncers to the right side” and his defensive limitations have been exposed greatly. His 5 for 47 June with one extra base hit probably cratered his value to where he won’t bring back much even as a two-way player (6 pitching appearances!).
Most likely to move might be Jonah Heim, the booby prize for teams not getting Langeliers. His right-handed bat has some value to teams looking to get something from their catcher and he is a rental. But Heim was acquired just a couple months ago for cash, and for all his penchant for dramatic hits his time with the A’s has yielded all of a .240/.285/.445 slash line with neutral defensive ratings.
Like it or not it’s probably going to be a “couple of minor deals” type of deadline for the A’s — unless you can think of a big deal you think David Forst and company might be pondering and discussing on the sly. Can you?
COVERS INTEL: July hasn’t been kind to Woo. In 11 IP this month, he’s posted a 5.29 FIP thanks to allowing three HR on 
