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Elephant Rumblings: A’s Interested in Andujar Reunion?

Morning everyone and welcome to a brand new week!

Yesterday afternoon we got a morsel of news regarding our A’s. The club apparently hasn’t closed the door on adding another position player as the team was called one of six teams interested in left fielder/DH Miguel Andujar:

The former top prospect as you know spent the entire 2024 season and the first half of last year with the A’s. After spending years trying to get back to being a consistent hitter in the big leagues he finally showed some life in his bat during his time with the Athletics. Over 135 games played over two years Andujar hit a solid .290/.324/.302 with 10 home runs in about a full-season’s worth of at-bats. And then he was even better with the Reds after the mid-season trade to Cincy, slashing an incredible .359/.400/.544 with 4 long balls in just 34 games as they marched to the postseason. The Reds probably don’t get there without Andujar.

While he missed plenty of time with injuries (a recurring theme for him throughout his career), he was a quality right-handed bat that was superb against lefties and earned more playing time against right-handed pitching. He was predictably best against left-handers (.389 batting average in 2025), but he was still an above-average option against same-handed pitching, giving whatever team he goes to an option against either handed starters.

His defense in left field was also not as much of a handicap as once thought, and he even stepped in at the hot corner for a while when the A’s were desperate to get his bat in the lineup. In 32 games played there he held his own and didn’t commit an error while on the infield dirt. Not saying he would be the everyday option if he joined up again, but the team could definitely find at-bats for him there if neither Max Muncy, Darell Hernaiz or Brett Harris can lay claim. His most likely position would be as a bench bat/part-time left fielder but the A’s have two big bats in those spots in Tyler Soderstrom and Brent Rooker, so the fit isn’t perfect. But he’d likely be an upgrade over young outfielder Colby Thomas, who could always return to Triple-A for more seasoning.

There’s no indication the A’s are considered favorites by any measure, and he’d likely have a better shot at playoff contention if he signed with the Padres or Cubs. That said perhaps his time with the A’s was more impactful on him and he could always seek a return to an up-and-coming young A’s squad. And if he does return, then the A’s essentially got a pitching prospect in RHP Kenya Huggins (currently ranked the #22 prospect in the farm system) in exchange for two months of Andujar’s services. Win-win-win all around already.

We’ll see what happens with him, but the A’s may not be quite done retooling. Would you like Andujar back? And if we miss out on him, another right-handed bat like his? Comment below and discuss.

Have a great day A’s fans.

A’s Coverage:

MLB News and Interest:

Best of X:

Well worth the read about our star shortstop!

A final look at Seth Brown’s time with the A’s:

A’s have some serious international talent coming up through the farm right now:

Several A’s taking in some Kings action:

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Breaking away from Cody Bellinger

Another day, another series of tweets detailing how the Yankees are prepared to walk away from the negotiating table in the case of Cody Bellinger. The club seems to be standing on the five-year, $150-ish million offer they’ve had for the onetime MVP since the beginning of free agency, and Bellinger’s camp still appears confident they can get seven guaranteed years. By all accounts both the Blue Jays and Mets are also negotiating with Cody’s crew, and the Yankees are willing to let their division or crosstown rival have him if the price goes above the number they’re at.

The pivot being reported on is primarily one to the trade market, with the club very much interested in Brewers starter Freddy Peralta, even after bringing in Ryan Weathers last week (Austin Hays is another lesser outfield consideration). The truth is the Yankees need quite a bit of help by my estimation, especially as the Jays, Red Sox and even Orioles are on paper better than they were last year. New York has to count on a number of things falling into place — that Gerrit Cole can be effective in his age-35 season coming off Tommy John surgery, that Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s career year in 2025 was closer to his true baseline talent, that Austin Wells can be more like his 2024 self than last year’s version, that Aaron Judge can continue to have arguably the greatest peak by a right-handed hitter ever.

Adding Peralta, but perhaps especially Bellinger, helps to offset some of those possible pitfalls. The Yankee lineup without him begins to look pretty thin — certainly thinner than the rotation. You start to count on steps forward from Anthony Volpe and Jasson Domínguez, or Trent Grisham repeating himself, or Spencer Jones to actually become a representative MLB player, and all four of those possibilities seems equally as unlikely as the rest. While I don’t think Cody Bellinger is his MVP form anymore, I would reasonably expect him to be better than all four of those guys in 2026.

Here’s where things get tricky, though. Five years is probably the limit that I would also go with Belli, and would probably expect that fifth year to be fairly underwater. Six or seven years stretch that from one season where you’re writing off performance to an Aaron Hicks-esque hair pulling. However, all roster and personnel decisions the Yankees make should be seen through the lens of winning with Aaron Judge. We don’t know how much longer we’ll have a guy with a 200 wRC+ and 10-WAR production, a player who at present is the second-best hitter and seventh-most-valuable overall in the history of the game’s most storied franchise.

“The playoffs are a crapshoot” is passed around here like a cigarette, but the organization clearly believes in it. Build a team good enough that you get into the postseason, load up on relief pitching, and see what happens. In a watered down playoff system, in an American League that doesn’t look nearly as competitive as its Senior Circuit counterpart, the Yankees as currently constructed are probably a playoff team barring some kind of catastrophe. A playoff team with a pretty tough postseason rotation to face, at that.

But here’s the thing the org hasn’t really embraced in almost a decade of so-called “Baby Bombers” baseball — the playoffs involve a great deal of randomness, but you can hedge against it. The Dodgers were one good secondary lead away from losing the World Series — that’s randomness — but they have also taken great care and expense to always head into the playoffs with the best possible roster, and the last two years it’s worked well.

There are going to be things that are outside of your control, but there’s a great deal of things that you do control. The next two free agent classes are awful shallow, with the best names available seemingly being Nico Hoerner and Randy Arozarena in the 2027 class. There’s no “wait a year for xyz player” coming down the pipe, and with a looming potential labor crisis next year, that’s another potential lost year in the Aaron Judge era. He’s already arguably the greatest Yankee to not have a ring, and not bringing back Cody Bellinger or at least replacing him with a player likely to offer the same complimentary production makes that drought all the more likely.

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Mariners News, 1/20/26: Jose A. Ferrer, Jorge Mateo, and Ryan Pressly

In Mariner news…

Around the league…

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The Mets biggest offensive hole remains in the outfield

The Mets have made it very clear that improving their outfield is important before we get into February and really begin to think about the 2026 campaign. They offered Kyle Tucker a monstrous four year, $220m deal before the lefty chose the back-to-back champion Dodgers offer of four years, $240m, showing how important they view an upgrade to the outfield.

The Mets pivoted from the rejection quickly, signing Bo Bichette to a three year, $126m deal (with two opt outs, really making it a one year pact, but I digress) the day after Tucker went to the West Coast. Signing Bichette shored up their other biggest need, a strong right handed hitter to balance out their lefty-heavy lineup, something the Mets coveted all winter. While Bichette, obviously, does not help fix their outfield woes, which is currently constructed as rookie Carson Benge, Tyrone Taylor, and Juan Soto, signing the infielder does make their pursuit of an outfielder more flexible than it was previously.

Bo Bichette is a very good hitter, as he comes into 2026 with a career slash line of .294/.337/.469 (124 wRC+), and that includes his injury plagued 2024 where he hit .225/.277/.322 (70 wRC+), which likely causes his career numbers to undersell his overall production. Slotting into third base, and somewhere between one through four in the everyday lineup, makes their pursuit of an outfielder much more interesting than it was previously.

The Mets chased Kyle Tucker because he killed two birds with one stone — filling in their need for an outfielder and an impact bat in one swoop, despite being left handed. They have also been linked to Cody Bellinger, who is riding a bounce back 2025 season in the Bronx into a very demanding contract ask, as he is currently spurning some very generous offers by the Yankees.

The Mets have been pretty consistently linked to Bellinger, with the caveat that the lefty would accept a similar contract to the one that Bichette signed; a short term contract with opt outs, one that gives the Mets the long-term payroll flexibility that President of Baseball Operations David Stearns covets. Bellinger, prior to the Bichette signing, felt like an awkward fit for the Mets, however. While a good player, he has not been an offensive superstar since his first three years in the league with the Dodgers. His last three years have been up and down offensively, literally, as he had a 135 wRC+ in 2023 with the Cubs, a 108 wRC+ in 2024, again with the Cubs, and a 124 wRC+ last season with the Yankees. The Mets, who moved on from Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso this winter, needed someone a little more stable offensively than modern-day Bellinger can provide.

Bichette’s signing, however, makes the sometimes inconsistent Bellinger a better fit for the Mets, in my view. He is a good defender, and is a flexible one, able to play all three outfield spots and also first base, which fits the roster’s needs like a glove. He will not be relied upon to be a foundational offensive player, and more of a complimentary one, which suits his strengths more in 2026.

If Bellinger and the Yankees want to continue their very expensive game of chicken, the Mets suddenly can go a myriad of ways to fix their outfield issue. Carson Benge, who is one of the very best prospects in the sport, will get every opportunity to be in the Mets everyday lineup come March 26th. With him likely locked into a spot, upgrading on Tyrone Taylor (70 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR) is the goal.

Similarly to how I feel about Bellinger, the Mets can chase more complimentary offensive outfielders than necessarily needing a middle of the order hitter. Will Sammon, in The Athletic, suggested something similar, naming guys such as Harrison Bader, Lars Nootbar, Jake Meyers, and Luis Robert Jr. Bader and Meyers are more defensive minded players who can pitch in offensively and play center field, kicking Benge to left. Nootbar and Robert are bounce back candidates that a team with a revamped Major League hitting apparatus can get more out of after they battled injury.

Those are just a few names from a very tight lipped organization, but it does show a peak into their thinking. The flexibility of a strong defensive center fielder that pushes Benge into left field and allows for the best possible outfield you can have, or a better hitting left fielder that allows Benge to be the center fielder himself, something prospect evaluators have little doubt he can handle, means that there is likely a few interesting tricks up the Mets sleeve during this offseason of immense change.

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Justin Steele’s rehab is ahead of schedule

Cubs left-hander Justin Steele made just four starts in 2025 before missing the rest of the season with Tommy John surgery. That surgery took place April 18, 2025, and the normal time frame for returning is between 12 and 15 months.

That means, theoretically, that Steele could be back pitching sometime in late April, though that’s likely not going to happen. Most probably, Steele will be placed on the 60-day injured list whenever that list opens, usually sometime in early March, which would mean the first game back for him would be in early May.

The Cubs, though, will likely be more cautious, but Meghan Montemurro reported in the Tribune that Steele’s rehab process is going well and ahead of schedule:

Steele took a step forward in his rehab process Friday when he threw off a mound for the first time since he underwent season-ending elbow surgery in April. Steele said Saturday he is feeling really good and hasn’t suffered any setbacks.

“There hasn’t really been any hiccups at all through this process,” Steele said. “It’s felt good the entire time. If anything, we’re ahead of schedule. Kind of been pushing the envelope the entire time, wanting to get off the mound, push the footage back as far as the throwing progression goes. But, yeah, it’s full steam ahead.”

Steele expects his surgeon, Dr. Keith Meister, will want him to be on some level of an innings limit for 2026 and so he anticipates that will impact when he comes back, though the belief is it will be sometime early in the season. The Cubs envision playing in October and making a deeper run this year, lessening a rush to get Steele back as soon as possible, especially with the depth they have built for the rotation.

The last sentence is the most important. This sort of thing is something the Dodgers, for example, have done — put together a deep rotation so that injured pitchers don’t have to rush back. For example, Blake Snell made just 11 starts during the 2025 regular season, but started five times (and appeared in six games) during the Dodgers’ postseason run.

The acquisition of Edward Cabrera means the Cubs already have a solid rotation that includes Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Shōta Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Colin Rea, who started 27 times for the Cubs in 2025, is thus pushed to a long relief/swingman role, and Javier Assad, who started seven games down the stretch for the Cubs last year, probably starts the year at Triple-A Iowa being stretched out to start.

Thus Steele’s return could even be delayed until after the All-Star break, with a somewhat leisurely rehab assignment before that to make sure he’s 100 percent. That would be a bonus to the Cubs, to be able to add a starter of Steele’s caliber in late July, almost like a trade deadline acquisition.

Give Jed Hoyer credit — he’s addressed the starting rotation by acquiring Cabrera, which helps give the staff more depth, and here’s hoping when Steele comes back, he’s ready to produce — similar to the way Boyd did for the Guardians when he returned from TJS in August 2024. You probably remember that first Boyd start — it was against the Cubs Aug. 13, 2024, and he shut them down for 5.1 innings with six strikeouts.

Here’s hoping for a similar return for Steele.

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Potential free agent target: Miguel Andujar

Although the Royals have added Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas to their lineup, the offseason still feels incomplete. The Royals could use another outfielder to provide depth and give more options on offense. Reports are that a trade for Jarren Duran of the Red Sox or Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals are “increasingly unlikely,” the Royals may have to turn to a thin free agent market.

One of the outfield bats still available is 30-year-old Miguel Andujar. Andujar is coming off a career resurgence, in which he hit .318/.352/.470 with 10 home runs in 341 plate appearances with the Athletics and Reds last season. According to New York Post reporter Jon Heyman, the right-handed hitting outfielder is drawing “significant interest” with Rangers, Padres, Cardinals, Reds, Cubs, and Athletics among the teams “in play.”

Andujar was once a highly-touted top 100 prospect with the Yankees. In 2018, he hit .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs as a rookie, finishing behind only Shohei Ohtani, then of the Angels, in Rookie of the Year voting. He missed most of the next season following shoulder surgery, and struggled to hit the next few years with the Yankees. The Pirates claimed him off waivers in 2022, and the Athletics picked him up after the 2023 season.

After a wrist injury set him back to begin the year, Andujar’s got off to a hot start in 2024. He hit .285/.320/.377 in 75 games with the A’s, but he missed the final month with a core muscle injury that would require surgery. In 2025, he got off to a decent start but went on an absolute tear over the last two months. After July 25, he hit .372/.411/.620 with seven home runs in his last 39 games.

Andujar obliterated lefties last year, hitting .389/.409/.578 against them, and he hit .411 against southpaws in 2024, although in just 61 plate appearances.

He also puts the ball in play. Andujar has a strikeout rate of just 13.8 percent over the last two seasons, 21st-lowest among players with at least 600 plate appearances. He has a 92.9 percent contact rate on pitches in the strike zone in that time, one of the highest rates in baseball. He hardly ever walks, but he is a tough out – over the last two seasons, he has hit .269 with two strikes on him, the fifth-highest average in baseball in those situations.

Andujar is not particularly fast, and he has negative Baserunning Runs in each of the last two seasons. He split his time mostly between third base and left field last year, and was a poor defender at each position.

Andujar is probably looking for a two-year deal, but at this point in the offseason, he will likely have to settle for a one-year contract, even with the alleged suitors Heyman mentions. He has value as a role player, likely in a platoon role, but is not worth investing in long-term. The Royals may be up against their budgetary limitations, but Andujar shouldn’t break the bank. I would expect him to sign for between $6-8 million, with maybe a $9-10 million club or mutual option for 2027 with a $1 million buyout.

The Royals have two left-handed-hitting outfielder with Kyle Isbel and Jac Caglianone. Isaac Collins is a switch-hitter without much of a platoon split, and Lane Thomas is a right-hander. Andujar could slot in there and spell Isbel and occasionally Caglianone (unless his reverse split last year was for real) and give the Royals a weapon against lefties. It isn’t the impact bat the Royals are looking for, but even incremental upgrades can help and the Royals can always reassess the market this summer if they are in contention.

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Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 28, Konner Eaton

28. Konner Eaton (75 points, 12 ballots)

Eaton, a 23-year-old lefty pitcher, was a bit below the radar entering 2025, but his size and athleticism were intriguing. He throws in the lower half of the 90s and boasts a slider whose late horizontal movement is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. Eaton has a sturdy, durable frame (6’3”, 210 pounds) that projects well as a traditional starting pitcher. His delivery is athletic, though he has worked on simplifying his mechanics since turning professional to improve his overall strike-throwing ability.

Mid-season 2025 Rank: 30

High Ballot: 21

Mode Ballot: 24

Future Value: 35+, starting pitcher depth

Contract Status: 2024 Sixth Round, George Mason University, Rule 5 Eligible After 2027, three options remaining

MLB ETA: 2027

Eaton, who signed for a full-slot bonus of $378.9k after getting drafted in the sixth round in 2024, threw 62 innings across 14 starts in his platform draft year, though his results (5.66 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 rate, 11.9 K/9 rate) weren’t strong and the level of competition wasn’t notably high. Unusually for a newly-drafted pitcher, Eaton actually saw some action in affiliated ball as well, throwing 11 innings across nine relief appearances in Low-A Fresno and High-A Spokane, allowing just one run on six hits and three walks while striking out 16.

In 2025, Eaton was assigned back to High-A Spokane, where he was 1.2 years younger than league average. Eaton was a rotation stalwart for Spokane, starting 23 games and throwing 121 1/3 innings with a 3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 rate, and 3.1 BB/9 rate while holding lefties to a .603 OPS. That includes quality starts in seven of eight starts between mid-June and early August. In mid-August, Eaton was promoted to Double-A Hartford, where he was 2.7 years younger than league average. He took the mound for another four starts in the Eastern League, throwing 18 2/3 innings with a nice 11.6 K/9 rate, albeit a 5.30 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 4.8 BB/9 rate.

Here’s a look at Eaton’s 2025 highlights:

Eaton was ranked 180th overall in the 2024 draft rankings by MLB Pipeline and is currently ranked 21st in the system as a 40 FV prospect with a 55 grade on his slider and 50s on the fastball and changeup:

At 6-foot-3, Eaton’s combination of size and athleticism have long intrigued scouts. While he typically runs his fastball up to about 94 mph, it can miss bats with solid inverted vertical break. His low-80s sweeping slider is an above-average breaking ball that can serve as an out pitch at times, and while his changeup has been inconsistent in the past, it’s a third effective offering for the southpaw.

After walking 5.0 per nine innings over the course of his George Mason career, there were questions about Eaton’s ability to start long term. He was finding the zone much more consistently at the outset of his pro career, and if that continues along with his three-pitch mix, he does have the chance to stick in a rotation. If not, the fastball-slider combination could play up coming out of the ‘pen in shorter stints.

Eaton’s “vertical” attack plan (high fastballs and sweepy sliders) is a good fit for Coors Field if he can locate well, as high-spin sliders are less affected by the thin air than traditional curveballs. Eaton’s total 140 frames in 2025 represents a clear starter’s workload in this day and age, setting him up to be an innings eater option in the upper minors or even MLB.

Eaton should head back to Hartford to begin the year, so a reasonable trajectory might be to see him in purple pinstripes by the end of 2027. He might yet be sent to the bullpen if his command falters against upper minors hitting, but the current starting role and results make him a 35+ FV player in my book, one who just missed inclusion on my ballot.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

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Report: Pirates still in pursuit of third baseman

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had a successful offseason. There’s not too many out there that wouldn’t grade their moves relatively highly. However, there’s more work still to be done, and the Bucs have a glaring need at third base, where the current depth chart lists Jared Triolo as the only one currently on the roster. A recent report, however, still has the Pirates in hot pursuit of one of the top third baseman still out there.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported on his podcast that the Bucs are still interested in Eugenio Suarez. He hit .228 last season with 49 homers and 118 RBIs while playing with the Seattle Mariners and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Rosenthal had this to say about Pittsburgh’s pursuit:

“I would certainly expect, and actually know that the Pirates are interested in Eugenio Suárez and the problem they’re going to face is the problem they’ve faced with other free agents as well… If Eugenio Suárez has chance to play for a more competitive team, in his opinion, he’s going to choose that team. If Eugenio Suárez can go to Boston, if he can return to one of his former teams, Seattle or Arizona, that might be his preference.”

So despite the Pirates’ interest, it sounds like an overpay might be in order to convince Suarez to come to the Steel City. The Bucs are definitely going to be improved this year, and Suarez could very well the bat that takes them from competitive to real players in the division, but other teams still have more attractive situations. In addition, the Bucs still need one or two more arms for their pitching staff as well as potentially another outfielder, so overpaying for Suarez just might not be in the cards.

Nonetheless, Rosenthal says the Bucs are legitimately interested, and as we head down the home stretch into Spring Training, they may have an outside shot at securing another big bat.

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Red Sox News & Links: Sox reportedly still trying to upgrade at catcher

Earlier this offseason, we were all a little surprised to hear that the Red Sox were rumored to be interested in catcher J.T. Realmuto. He’s since resigned with the Phillies, but the Sox are reportedly still interested in upgrading at catcher. While the catching position doesn’t feel like a priority given Carlos Narvaez’s successful rookie campaign, the team may simply see upgrading from Connor Wong as low-hanging fruit. Admittedly, though, there isn’t much catching talent out there right now. (Sean McAdam, MassLive)

But the catching spot should take a backseat to upgrading the infield. As of today, it looks like Marcelo Mayer is being penciled in at third. After yet another season-ending injury, Mayer recently provided an injury update: “I feel good. I’m pretty much doing full baseball activities like a normal ramp-up. I feel like I’m in a good spot.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

And don’t forget: while nothing seems imminent, things can come together quickly. For example, the Ranger Suárez deal was apparently negotiated over the length of a single afternoon. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

Suárez is one of three big acquisitions the Sox have made so far. As for on of the others, Willson Contreras, get ready to enjoy a fiery ballplayer: “I play to win. I don’t play to mess around. I don’t play to make friends on other teams. That’s the way I play, and I’m going to keep showing my emotions.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

While it’s going to be hard to find a decent catcher or upgrade the infield, it’s not hard to sign international free agents. The international amateur signing period opened last week and the Sox have already signed 17 players, all of whom are expected to head to the player development academy in the Dominican Republic. It’s quite possible, if not probable, that none of these players will ever make it to the big leagues, but here’s a rundown of some of the top names, including two players who were ranked in the top-50 of international amateurs and one player out of Brazil, which is still emerging as a baseball hotbed, powered by Japanese immigration. (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

And look: we’ve got new minor league coaches! Not the most exciting news in the world, but we just don’t have a lot going on right now, folks. Interestingly, several of them have a history with Driveline. (Christopher Smith, MassLive)

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Good Morning San Diego: Gavin Sheets could have bigger role in ‘26; Jackson Merrill should be commended for his commitment

Gavin Sheets was given the opportunity to make the San Diego Padres roster in Spring Training last season, and he took full advantage of it. He quickly become a fan favorite and chants of “Holy Sheets!” could be heard throughout Petco Park during his at-bats. Sheets even earned himself the nickname “Dairy Bonds” thanks some timely and powerful homeruns. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at what Sheets has done since becoming a member of the Padres and what he can do during the 2026 season to build on the success of last season.

Padres News:

  • Centerfielder Jackson Merrill signed a nine-year extension with the Padres early in the 2025 season. Some baseball pundits thought he sold himself short by excepting what was by all accounts a team-friendly contract, but Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball talks about how Merrill wants to be in San Diego, much like Mr. Padre.
  • Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball covers detail about the oblique injury suffered by Sung-Mun Song and provides readers with an idea of what to expect regarding the recovery timeline, rehab process and possible setbacks.
  • AJ Cassavell of Padres.com provides his list of the best Padres players by number, which includes former Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy with No. 44. Joe Musgrove still has time to change that, but since he wears 44 because of Peavy it may not happen.
  • According to reports, the Padres are one of many teams interested in adding free agent infielder Miguel Andujar to their roster.

Baseball News:

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OTM Open Thread 1/20: There is baseball somewhere

Good morning! Boston saw its first significant snow storm of 2026 yesterday, and it’s well below freezing today. In other words, it very much does not feel like baseball season here. But baseball is being played all around the world, including in the Dominican, where a spot in the LIDOM championship series was decided by a walkoff walk:

Game 1 of the championship series is on Wednesday and you can stream it on MLB.TV.

Talk about what you want, offer congratulations to the Toros del Este fans in your life, and be good to one another.

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Tuesday Morning Texas Rangers Update

Good morning.

Evan Grant ponders how having a set every day position at second base could impact Josh Smith and the Texas Rangers.

Jeff Wilson checks out how the rebooted bullpen is shaping up after the Rangers make the signing of Jakob Junis official.

Shawn McFarland writes that rehabbing lefty Cody Bradford is aiming to be an early-season addition to the rotation for the Rangers.

At The Athletic, Chad Jennings has a “trying” tier list where, as you might expect in his lean winter, the Rangers aren’t listed particularly high.

And, Matt Snyder predicts how things might shake out tonight as the next Hall of Fame class is set to be announced.

Have a nice day!

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What will Ronald Acuña Jr. produce in 2026?

Prior entries:

Forecasting most players has, well… constrained error bounds. A pretty good player with a point estimate of about 3 WAR might give you a couple more in a great year or lose you three wins in a worse-than-forgettable campaign.

Ronald Acuña Jr., though? He can make your season by himself, if things go his (and your) way. The difference between his MVP-winning 2023 and his unfortunate 2024 was over eight wins in fWAR terms. Eight wins turns a .500 team into a likely playoff entrant. Forecasting Acuña is probably less scary than facing him as a pitcher, but neither should strike you with confidence or zeal.

Career-to-date, status

Oh boy, how to summarize this? Acuña hit the ground running with over 9 fWAR in his first 1,200 career PAs, and then found another gear offensively in 2022-2021, approaching 7 fWAR in under 600 PAs. Unfortunately, there was that whole ACL injury thing suffered in 2021, and 2022 was an uncomfortably pedestrian season. He rebounded with an MVP campaign (9.2 fWAR) in 2023, socking 41 homers, stealing 73 bags, and putting up an absurd .460 xwOBA — he and Aaron Judge were the only two players that year to eclipse even .450 in xwOBA, and Judge only managed 458 PAs that year. 2024 ended up being a weirdly uncomfortable season for him (a career-worst .350 xwOBA) and he never got a change to dig out of that hole, as he tore his other ACL.

His defense also never really returned to anything useful after his first ACL injury — whether due to his own tentativeness, a direction for him to take it easy in the field, or some combination of the two.

Acuña is in the final guaranteed year of an eight-year, $100 million extension he signed early in the 2019 season, which was the largest contract at that time for a player with less than a year of service time. The Braves hold a couple of $17 million options for him in 2027 and 2028, which they’ll certainly exercise — unless they can somehow find a way to layer on an extension in the process. That seems to be in their favor for the obvious reason that Acuña can change an entire season around for a team given how good he can be, but, of course, the cost effectiveness of any deal that would get him to forgo a shot at free agency looms large. As we’ll see below, forecasting him is kind of a nightmare, so it requires a lot of risk tolerance to work out a solution that will result in fresh ink on contract pages (are MLB contracts e-signed now? I have no idea).

Recent performance

Acuña’s 2025 was weird. He approached a .400 xwOBA, and actually outhit it, the first time he’s outhit his xwOBA since his rookie year. (He has a sizable career xwOBA underperformance.) Still, his “new gear” offensively was notably higher than “just” .400. On top of that, it’s hard to make heads or tails of what exactly he changed (or didn’t) in 2025. He walked a ton, and he explicitly credited Tim Hyers and the team’s changed offensive approach to his ability to garner those walks… but the reality is that his chase rate didn’t really budge, and he had a bunch of contact issues, especially on changeups for whatever reason. When Acuña is going berserk, he’s crushing changeups and sliders as well as fastballs, but the changes he made in 2025 made him much more of a fastball-eviscerator. As noted, he really struggled to connect with changeups, while his contact quality on sliders straight-up died as he was fighting them off and flicking them rather than destroying them like he did earlier in his career. What does any of this mean for the future? I have no idea. Acuña’s ability to make on-the-fly adjustments is one of the many things that makes him a phenom, so there’s no reason he’s locked in to any system or mode of performance.

On the flip side, we can probably figure he’s going to continue to be tentative in the field, and might see a bunch of DH time, especially with Sean Murphy apparently not making it back for Opening Day. Acuña hasn’t been a positively defensively in an outfield corner relative to his peers since before the first ACL tear, and last season was as big of a mess defensively as you’ll see from a guy that isn’t miscast as an outfielder in the first place. Suffice to say: his ability to generate value is entirely on his bat, and moreover, on how well his hitting outpaces whatever he gives away WAR-wise from hanging out in right field or appearing as a DH.

All in all, Acuña managed 3.5 fWAR in 412 PAs last year. Nothing to sneeze at, and really, laudable numbers for nearly any MLBer. His 161 wRC+ was the second-highest of his career, but again, (slight) xwOBA overperformance helped there.

Forecasting

Yeah, I don’t know. To do this well, you not only have to somehow figure whether there’s going to be another catastrophic injury, how many small nagging injuries he’ll get breaks for, how much rest is baked in to his schedule, and even aside from all that, which offensive version of the guy you’re going to get. We’ve had two struggle-y seasons, one coming off injury (2022) and one before an injury struck (2024). Those sandwiched an MVP campaign. As noted above, his 2025 was weird but still good despite the weirdness.

If you’re struck by those numbers being “low” — they aren’t — except the PA tally, which resembles 2025 in point estimate terms. The wRC+ is basically in line with his career, and yeah, the defense is a drag, but it is what it is. My interpretation here is that the big question for Acuña is health — there’s basically a 1.5 WAR swing between figuring he misses up to seven weeks with issues, and he plays pretty regularly, and that matters.

And nowhere is that more evident than in the above chart, where, like Austin Riley before him, there’s this giant gap between the rate of production (which looks normal-ish, if skewed towards lower rates a bit) and how that actually translates into production given that he might once again miss a bunch of time. This bimodal distribution is the stuff of nightmares because of how far apart the two peaks are — that’s basically an entire meaty part of the win curve right there, as a result of one ultra-talented 28-year-old. Oof.

With regard to other systems:

  • Steamer has Acuña at a 148 wRC+ and basically the same WAR/600 as IWAG. The issue is, again, whether you discount his playing time at all given his track record.
  • ZiPS has him hitting notably better than IWAG/Steamer, and basically a half-win better on a per-600 basis — but also has a PA point estimate of well below 550 PAs. I don’t really know what to do with this, I’m just throwing it out there.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

  • Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Ronald Acuña Jr. produce in 2026?
  • How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

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Samuel Basallo’s rookie year can set the standard for international Orioles

There are big expectations for Baltimore backstop Samuel Basallo as he heads into his official rookie season. The 21-year-old out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, doesn’t just represent the leader of a new wave of talent graduating from the Orioles’ farm system. Basallo represents the first real fruits of an increased emphasis on developing talent through the international free agent market.

Basallo signed with the Orioles in 2021 for a then-club record $1.3M signing bonus. After a relative sprint through the minors that saw him make his big league debut at 20, the now-No. 1 catching prospect in baseball showed flashes of his immense potential in 31 games last season. Highlights included a walk-off homer against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers, another walk-off winner four days later against the Pirates and a moonshot against the Yankees for his final long ball of the year.

That’s not to say that the rookie didn’t have his struggles. In the first 109 ABs of his career, Basallo posted a .165 average and .559 OPS and struggled with strikeouts. The 6’4” catcher certainly faded down the stretch of his first major league cameo. Over his first 15 games, he posted a modest .204 average with a .660 OPS and 24% strikeout rate—decent returns for a 20-year-old rookie. Over the following 16 games, that average dipped to .127, the OPS plummeted to .459 and his strikeout rate spiked to 31%.

One of the big tasks for Craig Albernaz and his staff will be getting Basallo to tap into his excellent tools on a more consistent basis. The big Dominican showed elite bad speed in his first month-plus in the big leagues; his 75.5mph average swing speed would rank top 20 in all of baseball and is on par with star SS Gunnar Henderson. If Basallo can start to make more consistent contact, that bat speed should lead to the hard hit rates and exit velocities that lead to the upper echelon power output we’ve seen from Henderson.

The new manager will also have to figure out the best role for his young backstop in 2026. Injuries to Adley Rutschman and Gary Sánchez meant that Basallo spent a lot more time at catcher last season than most could have anticipated. Twenty of his 29 starts came behind the dish as Basallo quieted some of those who doubted his ability to provide major-league-caliber defense.

With Sánchez not brought back and Alex Jackson traded to the Twins, Basallo comes into the upcoming season as the undisputed backup to Rutschman. Given that Rutschman’s OPS is over 100 points higher when he’s DH’ing instead of catching, and given Basallo’s undeniable offensive upside, the Orioles may elect to rotate Rutschman and Basallo between catcher and DH while keeping both in the lineup. Basallo is also currently the Orioles’ only left-handed-hitting 1B option, so he should see some starts to spell righties Pete Alonso, Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo.

If a combination of Basallo’s hard work, additional exposure to major league pitching and the benefits of the new coaching staff helps him take a leap, it’ll represent a success on two fronts for the Orioles. A fully-realized Basallo (or close to it) can provide a similar offensive boost to new additions Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward. However, Basallo’s success would also represent the first major success of Mike Elias’ efforts to overhaul the Orioles approach in the international free agent market.

Under Elias’ predecessor, Dan Duquette, the O’s largely ignored international free agent prospects. Over Duquette’s eight seasons at the helm (2011 — 2018), Baltimore only had three former international free agent signings crack their top 10 prospects. Jonathan Schoop was a mainstay on the Orioles’ top 10 prospect list from 2011 until his debut in 2013. Eduardo Rodriguez was the Orioles’ No. 3 prospect when they flipped him for reliever Andrew Miller at the 2014 trade deadline. However, both of those players also predated Duquette, with Schoop signing out of Curaçao in 2008 and Rodríguez signing out of Venezuela in 2010.

The only player Duquette signed that ever cracked the Orioles’ top 10 prospects was infielder Jomar Reyes. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, Reyes rose as high as the Orioles’ No. 3 prospect in 2016. Injuries and inconsistent performance then derailed his progress through the minors, ultimately leading to his release in 2020. Reyes’ failure to launch was an example of Duquette’s approach to developing foreign talent. While teams like the Astros, Dodgers and Braves were using the international free agent market to propel them to World Series titles, the Orioles fell further and further behind competitive organizations.

Since Elias took charge, the organization has done a complete 180 in the international market. The O’s have committed major resources to revamping their international scouting, opened a state-of-the-art academy in the Dominican Republic and continue to sign more and more top international prospects. Baltimore’s most recent class featured five players in MLB.com’s Top 50 international prospects, 10 total signings and saw the Orioles hand out a club-record $2.3M signing bonus to Dominican shortstop Jose Luis Acevedo.

It’s hard to say what impact Basallo’s ascension to the big leagues and subsequent contract extension had on the most recent class of international free agents, but it couldn’t have hurt. Should the Orioles’ No. 1 prospect reward the front office’s faith in him, it would be a signal to other budding stars in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and beyond that Baltimore is now a serious player when it comes to developing premier international talent.

The Orioles already have other top international prospects rocketing up their farm system. Many evaluators view Orioles’ top pitching prospect Esteban Mejia as a player who can develop into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Infielder Aron Estrada and LHP Luis De León both have outside shots at making it to the majors in 2026. Fellow top 30 prospects RHP Keeler Morfe and OF Stiven Martinez also present as high-upside prospects that still need plenty of development.

However, Basallo is undoubtedly the face of this new wave of Orioles international talent. A breakout during his rookie season can not just help the 2026 Orioles but also serve as a massive domino in turning this wave into a constant flow of international talent to Baltimore.

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Mets still open to signing Framber Valdez despite escalating draft pick penalties: report

The Mets remain open to signing Framber Valdez despite the escalating draft pick penalties that would come with it, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic.

Zac Gallen, also attached to a qualifying offer, fits in the same boat.

New York's continued openness to players attached to a QO is notable because they are going to lose their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 MLB Draft for signing Bo Bichette.

If Valdez or Gallen is signed by the Mets, they will also lose their third- and sixth-highest picks in the 2026 draft.

The Mets remain in need of a pitcher who can slot in near the top of their rotation, and have also been linked to Freddy Peralta, whom the Milwaukee Brewers have made available via trade.

In order to acquire Peralta, who is one year away from free agency but reportedly open to an extension, New York would likely have to part with one of its young starting pitching prospects and more.

If not Peralta, the 32-year-old Valdez could be a very strong fit.

After 30-year-old Ranger Suarez recently signed a five-year, $130 million deal with the Boston Red Sox, it's fair to believe that Valdez can be had on a three- or four-year pact with a higher average annual value than Suarez received.  

Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers in game one of the Wild Card round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park.
Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers in game one of the Wild Card round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina - Imagn Images

The above type of deal for Valdez would theoretically be in the wheelhouse of David Stearns, who generally prefers to not go long on contracts for pitchers over 30.

Valdez has been a workhorse over the last four seasons, posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 767.2 innings. 

After leading the American League in innings pitched in 2022 (201.1 IP), Valdez hasn't really slowed down. He fired 198.0 innings in 2023, 176.1 innings in 2024, and 192.0 innings this past season.

His ERA in 2025 was 3.66 -- the highest it's been since 2019, when Valdez was working mostly in relief. But while the ERA was a tick high, there wasn't much cause for concern elsewhere, as Valdez's WHIP, hit rate, walk rate, home run rate, and strikeout rate were all right around his career averages. 

When looking at Valdez's relatively down 2025 season, it's also skewed a bit by a rough final six weeks. 

Valdez had a 2.62 ERA ahead of his start on Aug. 3, but was hit hard in six of his final 10 outings. In the middle of that tough stretch, though, Valdez had one start where he fired 7.0 shutout innings, another where he allowed three runs across 7.0 innings, and closed his season on a high note, tossing 7.0 innings of one-run ball while striking out 10 on Sept. 25. 

There was a troubling moment in September, when Valdez seemingly intentionally crossed up his catcher in order to hit him with a pitch -- and showed no remorse after.

For his part, Valdez claimed it was unintentional.