Who will win Phillies vs Mets today: Phillies -1.5 (+105)
The Philadelphia Phillies enter this series having won five of their last six, and they've covered the run line in four of those games. Zack Wheeler gets the ball tonight, and he owns an impressive 2.71 xERA across his last five appearances.
During that span, Wheeler has held opponents to a 32.4% hard hit rate, and a solid 44.6% ground ball rate. The veteran is inducing a lot of weak contact, and he's up against one of the most inconsistent lineups in baseball.
The New York Mets haven't yet announced who will start, but it's likely to be a bullpen game. That's not ideal, considering they own a 41% hard hit rate over the last week.
Phillies vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 runs (+101)
The Philadelphia Phillies have been the hottest offense in baseball lately, scoring 51 runs over their last six games while slugging 14 home runs. Their .262 ISO and 155 wRC+ during that stretch back up the production.
Zack Wheeler should keep New York's offense in check, but the Phillies have a favorable matchup against a Mets bullpen allowing 1.87 home runs per nine innings over the last week. Even if the Mets contribute only a couple of runs, Philadelphia has more than enough firepower to push this game beyond the total.
I'll play this pick up to -130.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 31-26, +2.65 units
Over/Under bets: 32-24, +3.53 units
Phillies vs Mets weather
Conditions at Citi Field should be slightly favorable for hitters tonight. Temperatures around 81°F and warm summer air could help the ball carry a bit better, while light 8.1 mph winds aren't expected to have much impact. Overall, the weather provides a modest boost to offense without dramatically changing the matchup.
Phillies vs Mets odds
Moneyline: Phillies -150 | Mets +144
Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+108) | Mets +1.5 (-113)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-113)
Phillies vs Mets trend
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.
How to watch Phillies vs Mets and game info
Location
Citi Field, Flushing, Queens
Date
Friday, June 26, 2026
First pitch
7:10 p.m. ET
TV
Peacock
Phillies starting pitcher
Zack Wheeler (7-1, 2.11 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher
TBD (Y-Y, X.XX ERA)
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 25: Pitcher Mitchell Parker #70 of the Washington Nationals is pulled after loading the bases in the seventh inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park on June 25, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After a third straight bullpen meltdown, we saw a different side of Blake Butera. His answers were short and to the point. He was asked about what went wrong with the bullpen, and he simply said “they did not throw strikes and didn’t execute” and when he was asked about his takeaway from the game today, he simply said “our bullpen”.
Last night just felt like a breaking point because we could all see it coming from a mile away. I am sure Blake Butera knew the game had slipped away when he went out to the mound to pull Mitchell Parker after yet another dreadful outing from the lefty. It just felt like Butera had a sense of acceptance with the state of the bullpen. He was asked if he trusted the guys he had to figure it out, and he simply said that they will get opportunities.
The direct quote when asked about if he believes in the 8 guys in the bullpen are going to be able to figure it out was “they will get opportunities to do so. How much rope that is, is to be determined” https://t.co/OYQZ2SuYq7
Obviously Blake Butera does not trust his relievers, and frankly he would be out of his mind if he did. They let him down and let this fanbase down for three straight nights. The only reason Butera did not say that is because unfortunately, you can’t replace a whole unit overnight. The reality is that Butera does have to keep giving some of these guys shots because this is all they have.
While you can’t send down an entire bullpen, I am quite baffled about why Mitchell Parker keeps getting chances. Yet again, he was at the center of a bullpen collapse. However, it does not look like he will be sent down. On the season, the southpaw has a 6.39 ERA and is coming off a 2025 season where he had a 5.68 ERA. I have no clue what more they need to see here.
One pitcher they did send down was Gus Varland, whose 9th inning meltdown put the nail in the coffin. Varland was very good for this team in April, but had an ERA of 5.79 in May and 11.17 in June. As much as I like Varland the person, this was a move that had to be made. He was just unable to get outs at the big league level.
To Varland’s credit, he was the only Nationals reliever who made himself available to the media. This is despite the fact he had clearly just been told he had been sent down to AAA. He just looked defeated when we spoke to him, saying “this f*cking sucks”. I asked what had changed between April and now, to which Varland said he wished he knew.
Three nights in a row, the Nats had a win probability in the 90’s and blew it. On two of those nights, they were one strike away with nobody on base. Instead of a four game sweep, the Nats lost three of four due to the biggest achilles heel in all of baseball.
The Nationals bullpen has been bad all year… but this series they've been REALLY bad 😬
As has been pointed out a lot lately, this Nationals team is a resilient bunch, or at least the hitters are. They bounced back after the San Francisco game, and bounced back last night, putting up 5 runs on one of the best pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, the bullpen does not have that same sort of talent or resilience.
Blake Butera even said that he thought his relievers were pitching scared. You could see the confidence completely drain from Mitchell Parker after allowing a couple hits. He became scared to throw strikes, and that sent the wheels in motion. Clayton Beeter, who is always erratic, just did not have it tonight. In that 7th inning, they walked three straight hitters, including two with the bases loaded.
Somehow though, I don’t even think the walks are the biggest problem plaguing this bullpen. That would be the home run ball. On the season, the Nats bullpen has allowed 61 homers. No other unit has even allowed 50. They are on pace to allow 120 home runs as a bullpen, the most by any unit that did not pitch in 2019 with the juiced balls.
The 2026 Washington Nationals bullpen is on pace to allow 120 home runs.
Here are the most home runs allowed by a bullpen in MLB history:
2019 Orioles – 126 home runs 2019 Angels – 123 home runs 2019 Mariners – 118 home runs 2019 Blue Jays – 118 home runs 2019 Tigers – 111 home…
The bullpen allowed 6 homers in this series alone. There are multiple bullpens that have not allowed 6 homers all month. It is honestly an embarrassment that this is the product being put out by this unit. This offense is absolutely amazing, and even if the same group is brought back, it is far from guaranteed that the results will be this good again.
This has to be fixed by Paul Toboni at the trade deadline and/or in the offseason. The team has overachieved and are ahead of schedule. They could truly make a push in 2027 even with an average bullpen. A rockstar closer would be nice, but I would take MLB quality pitchers at this point. This bullpen would not look out of place at all in Triple-A.
It is just a real shame that it has come to this. This season was, and in some ways still is very fun. It is cool to actually feel things again after not even being close to competing for so many years. However, we just got a reality check this week. Until the bullpen is totally overhauled, this team is going nowhere.
We have a ton of value to attack this evening, so here are my favorite MLB player propsfor June 26.
Kyle Manzardo and TJ Rumfield will lead the way on Friday night.
Best MLB player props today
Player
Pick
Odds
Kyle Manzardo
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
-101
TJ Rumfield
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
-109
Owen Caissie
Over 0.5 hits
-161
Kyle Manzardo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-101)
Getting nearly even money on a hitter batting .300 with a .519 SLG, .886 OPS, 58% hard-hit rate, and a 16% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching is simply too good to pass up.
Kyle Manzardo has been seeing the ball extremely well as of late, and tonight he draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo. Manzardo owns nearly 82% arsenal coverage against his below average pitch mix.
Castillo has been getting torched by left-handed hitters on the road, allowing a 71.4% elevation rate and a 43.7% hard-hit rate. Over the last 60 lefties he's faced, opponents have generated a 48% hard-hit rate, 12% barrel rate, and a 66% elevation rate. They have also posted a .490 xSLG and .357 xwOBA during that stretch.
If you're looking for a plus-money look, pair Manzardo and Travis Bazzana to each record a hit. I think both of these guys are in outstanding spots tonight.
Rumfield has been on fire lately, batting .327 with a .692 SLG, 1.092 OPS, .365 ISO, and just a 13% strikeout rate over his last 60 at bats against right-handed pitching.
Bradley, on the other hand, has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters all season. Over the last 30 lefties he has faced, he has allowed a 60% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and 75% elevation rate.
Looking at his last three starts overall, Bradley owns a 6.19 xERA while allowing a 54% hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
I think the young Pebble and the rest of the Rockies are in a great spot tonight against a pitcher who consistently gives up loud contact. I would have gladly paid -120 for this prop, so make sure to shop around and grab the best number you can find.
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MNNT, COLR
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 hits (-161)
The Miami Marlins have a guy near the bottom of their lineup named Owen Caissie who has been on an absolute tear. Tonight, he draws St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy, and the young slugger owns 74% arsenal coverage against his entire pitch mix.
Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Caissie has produced a 55.6% hard-hit rate, 27.8% barrel rate, .430 wOBA, .679 SLG, and a 1.012 OPS.
On the other side, McGreevy owns a 5.67 xERA and just a 10% strikeout rate over the last 60 left-handed batters he has faced. During that stretch, lefties have posted a .358 xBA, .569 xSLG, and .382 xwOBA against him.
This is a spot where I am more than willing to lay a little extra juice. Caissie to record a hit this evening is a go in my book at anything below -170.
If you're looking for a little more value, his Over 1.5 total bases is a pretty sexy number. Me? I am in the juice-paying business, so I do not mind laying a little extra for the higher floor.
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CARD, MIAM
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 241-444, -6.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This short line is influenced by the standings, which fail to mention that L.A. has a +144 run differential while San Diego lags behind at -5.
The Padres have been one of the most fortunate teams in the league, so I’m fading them and quantifying them as an overvalued asset. Their 37-42 BaseRuns record indicates they really could be five wins worse off.
Walker Buehler (15th percentile xBA, 12th percentile whiff rate), similarly, has been lucky.
COVERS INTEL:Roki Sasaki has stepped up a level, posting the eighth-best Stuff+ (113) among starters in his last six outings. His patented splitter should play nicely against a Padres lineup with -3.58 runs above average per 100 splitters seen — the worst mark in the league.
Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
Since May 18, San Diego has ranked dead last in AVG (.216), and second-last in OPS (.652) and runs scored per game (3.5).
While Buehler’s underlying metrics are somewhat questionable, the on-field results are not. He’s allowed just a single run in each of his last four starts.
Buehler rarely has an off day, surrendering no more than three earned runs in any of his last eight starts, and no more than four earned in any of his 15 starts this season.
Both bullpens have an ERA below 3.00 across the last 14 days and are fully rested.
JD Yonke's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 23-22, -3.08 units
Over/Under bets: 32-14 +17.40 units
Dodgers vs Padres weather
Partly sunny with winds at 9 mph.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Moneyline: Dodgers -148 | Padres +123
Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+119) | Padres +1.5 (-144)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Dodgers vs Padres trend
The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 18 road games against the Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.
How to watch Dodgers vs Padres and game info
Location
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date
Friday, June 26, 2026
First pitch
9:45 p.m. ET
TV
Apple TV
Dodgers starting pitcher
Roki Sasaki (3-4, 4.77 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher
Walker Buehler (4-3, 3.96 ERA)
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
It’s going to be a lucrative winter for major league managers.
The New York Mets’ firing of Carlos Mendoza on Friday, June 26 marks the third major-market manager to get canned this season, as the third-year skipper took the fall for the club’s poor performance in the face of huge expectations that come with carrying the major league's biggest 2026 payroll.
As for the Mets, this is a pressure-packed hire. President of baseball operations David Stearns has taken considerable heat for offseason moves that largely went awry once the lights came on this season; Mendoza was under fire almost immediately, received an April stay of execution and then became easily disposable once the Mets fell to 34-47.
Now, it will be Stearns facing more heat should the club not turn it around in 2027, and owner Steve Cohen will closely scrutinize this hiring.
Here are seven potential fits in New York as the club looks toward the future:
Alex Cora
No wonder the man felt more blessed than stressed when a dysfunctional Boston Red Sox organization kicked him to the curb after just 27 games.
Cora’s firing was shortly followed by Rob Thomson’s dismissal in Philadelphia, prompting speculation Cora and former Boston boss Dave Dombrowski might consummate a shotgun wedding and bring Cora to Philly.
Yet Cora opted to chill, and now he might enjoy something resembling a bidding war for his services. And the Mets are probably the best fit of all.
Cora is an excellent manager in the dugout and the clubhouse and would excel in handling the New York media, as he did in Boston when he served under three general managers yet established himself as an organizational cornerstone — at least until he and current boss Craig Breslow got sideways.
But the resume remains unblemished — a 620-541 career record, one World Series championship and significant regard in the game.
Cora would also connect nicely with Puerto Rican baseball fans in New York, and his experience handling big-money superstars — from Mookie Betts to Chris Sale to Rafael Devers - would come in handy. Cue up the Mets fan fever dreams of Cora and Zohran Mamdani piloting a float down the Canyon of Heroes.
Carlos Beltrán, Mets special assistant
Wouldn’t this be something?
Beltrán arguably got the worst deal out of the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme, with Cora and A.J. Hinch bouncing back to managerial jobs, every other player skating freely yet Beltrán, a player at the time of the scandal, losing his impending job as Mets manager.
This might be the time to make it right.
Former Mets GM Billy Eppler re-hired Beltrán as a special assistant in February 2023 and he’s stayed aboard into the Stearns era. Lest we forget, Beltrán nearly got the New York Yankees job that went to Aaron Boone before the 2018 season.
The man has methodically climbed the ranks, from Dodgers coach to Hinch’s No. 2 in Detroit, along the way interviewing for managerial jobs in Detroit and Pittsburgh in 2020 and Miami in 2024.
He now has six years of experience alongside Hinch, helping Detroit to a pair of playoff berths, and could check both the managerial and developmental boxes.
In this scenario, sometime in 2027 Lombard would be managing the Mets while his son, George Jr., is across town manning a spot in the Yankees infield.
Omar Lopez, Astros bench coach
His star rose significantly when he piloted an underdog Venezuela squad to a stunning World Baseball Classic championship in March. Pressure? The New York media pales in comparison to the expectations of piloting his home country through two WBCs.
Lopez has been a key figure in the Astros II resurgence, beginning as a first base coach and then as Joe Espada’s bench coach the past three seasons. The Astros’ midseason rally puts them back in contention, and come October, the Mets hiring the bench coach of a playoff team wouldn’t be a difficult sell.
Rickie Weeks, Brewers special assistant
He served for two seasons as Pat Murphy’s associate manager in Milwaukee before shifting to a role as special assistant in baseball operations and domestic and international scouting. Perhaps that puts Weeks on a more executive track, but helming the Mets is one of the game’s elite jobs, and Stearns knows what he can do.
He’s the most prominent lurker among the half-dozen managers who got axed last year and haven’t returned to the dugout. Hyde saw every angle of the manager’s job in seven seasons with Baltimore, from a grim and cynical rebuild to an eventual rebirth and division title, and then unmet expectations.
Yet money and high-end talent acquisition would not be a problem in New York. Wherever he lands, Hyde will almost certainly benefit from a second-time-around hindsight that many managers enjoy. The lone bullet point missing on his resume is dealing with mega-market conditions and a clubhouse filled with highly-paid superstars.
Ryan Flaherty, Cubs bench coach
A moderate surprise Flash didn’t get one of the many openings last fall, with several clubs opting for surprise hires rather than a proverbial big league manager-in-waiting.
Yet Flaherty would bring ex-player credibility and four seasons as bench coach under his belt, working under Bob Melvin and Craig Counsell. Oddly enough, he replaced Andy Green — now the Mets’ interim manager after Mendoza’s firing — as bench coach with the Cubs.
The New York Mets have done what was long expected and fired manager Carlos Mendoza after the team got off to a 34-47 start, including a 12-game losing streak in April.
Mendoza, who led New York to the National League Championship Series in 2024 during his first year on the job, will be replaced by Andy Green, a former manager of the San Diego Padres, who will be the interim manager for the rest of the season.
Green has a tall task in front of him as the Mets have lost six consecutive games, including being swept at home by the Chicago Cubs. New York is currently 15 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East.
Green is a 48-year-old former MLB infielder who played for the Arizona Diamondbacks from 2004-06, with a short stint with the Mets in 2009. In between those major-league stops, Green played for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters of the Nippon Professional Baseball in 2007.
He finished his major-league career with a .200 batting average, two home runs and 12 RBI in 140 games.
Green's coaching career started with the Arizona Diamondbacks, first as a manager for the rookie-level Arizona League affiliate in 2011, then as manager of the advanced-rookie-level Missoula Osprey of the Pioneer League in 2012, and finally leading the Double-A Mobile BayBears in 2013-14.
The Diamondbacks made Green their third-base coach in 2015, before he was named Padres manager in October 2015.
Green compiled a 274-366 record in his four seasons in San Diego, finishing last in the NL West twice during his tenure. He was fired in September 2019 and hired a few months later as the bench coach of the Chicago Cubs, where he spent four seasons (2020-23).
Green joined the Mets in 2023 and was in the team's front office as senior vice president of baseball development before Mendoza's firing thrust him back into the dugout as manager.
HOOVER, AL - MAY 21: Infielder Ace Reese #3 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs hits a foul ball during the SEC Baseball Tournament Quarterfinals game between Mississippi State Bulldogs and Georgia Bulldogs on May 21, 2026, at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium in Hoover, Alabama.(Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The 2026 is just a few weeks away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.
Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at Mississippi State third baseman Ace Reese.
Ace Reese is a 6’4″, 220 lb. lefthanded hitting junior third baseman for Mississippi State. Born in Plano, Reese, who turned 21 in April, was undrafted and relatively unheralded coming out of Canton High School in Canton, Texas, county seat of Van Zandt County, in 2023. He played his freshman year for the University of Houston before transferring to Mississippi State, where he’s anchored the middle of their lineup the past two seasons.
Reese is a bat-first guy with big time power. Looking at the differing measurements out there for him, it appears he’s gotten significantly bigger in his college career, as BA lists him at 180 lbs. and B-R at 200 lbs., compared to 220 lbs. in the more updated listings. He has good bat speed and plus power, posting what Keith Law calls “elite top-end exit velocities.” He gets dinged for being overly aggressive at the plate, with reports saying he doesn’t make great swing decisions, resulting in an elevated K rate and less than ideal contact when he does make contact on pitches he should probably let go. That said, his swing is geared towards loft and power, with BP referencing “Griffey Jr. swing vibe” because of his “extreme lefty uppercut” swing. BA’s list of the best tools in the draft class has Reese third on the Best Power list for college players.
Reese currently plays third base, and there are questions about whether he can stick at the position. He is not considered particularly athletic and his arm is graded at average, so he may end up at first base, where the requirements from the bat are higher than if he can stick at third. He’s a below-average runner, which makes him a better fit at first base than in, say, left field, if third base isn’t in the cards.
As a freshman at UofH, Reese hit well while manning left field, slashing .278/.395/.506 with 29 walks against 37 Ks in 195 plate appearances. Moving up a level in competition to the SEC as a sophomore with the Bulldogs, Reese played through a toe injury that required offseason surgery, slashing .352/.422/.718 with 21 bombs in 263 plate appearances, walking 26 times and striking out 52 while being the everyday third baseman. He largely replicated that as a junior, slashing .336/.432/.721 with 63 Ks and 41 walks, putting up 24 homers. He also played in wood bat summer leagues the past two summers and performed fairly well there.
Lefthanded power is always in demand, and it wouldn’t be surprising to me if Reese is off the board before the Rangers pick. He’s put up big power numbers in the best college conference two straight seasons, which makes him attractive. Yes, there are concerns about his contact rates, and he could end up at first base long-term, but if the contact rates were better and he was a near-lock to stay at third base, he’d be off the board in the first five picks.
I’m not sure to what degree he’d be a fit for the Rangers. Texas has tended to emphasis hit tool over present power with their draft picks, looking for guys with contact ability who they think can develop power, versus someone like Reese, who needs to make adjustments to improve his contact ability and better allow his power to play at the next level.
Jake Burger went 11th overall as a power hitting third baseman in the Missouri Valley Conference in 2017 who had questions about whether he would stick at third base and about how well his hit tool would play in the pros. It is a very imperfect comparison — Reese gets better marks for being lefthanded and performing in a better conference, as well as having less concerns about his build — but that sort of low-OBP, high-power 1B/3B result is something you could see from Reese.
We use these daily posts to revisit the biographies of Yankees past, from the stars that delivered 27 World Series titles or those that have been nearly forgotten to history. Today we celebrate a player that everyone should be familiar with, the Captain that took over the mantle from Don Mattingly and led the club into a new dynasty. I’m not sure there’s anything I could write that would add to the collective biography of Derek Jeter, so instead I’ll write about how, in so many ways, he is a cornerstone of the way I experience baseball.
When you’re a kid, there are much worse role models to have than Jeter. That quote about no excuses for anyone to work harder than you must have been repeated by every single coach I had until high school — even though, when you think about it saying it to an entire team doesn’t make sense, cuz we can’t all work harder than each other. Perhaps observations like this are why I never really went anywhere in sports.
But the hustle was such a part of the Jeter narrative, that he was always just there. There’s a reason The Flip, that inconceivable out from the 2001 ALDS, is still my favorite baseball play ever:
This should never have happened. There is no reason for Jeter to be in the neighborhood where intercepting that ball is possible. But he did it, because he’s always there. Derek Jeter was the most consistent, in a sport where that’s the hardest thing in the world to find. Every year of my childhood, for whatever a nebulous timeframe that is, Jeter hit .310 from the same spot in the lineup. And yes, I just used batting average.
I used batting average because in the early-to-mid 2000s, the summers of my childhood that’s what we had to gauge players. Around the game, Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein and Billy Beane were starting to look at new, undeveloped ways of evaluating players, but the Toronto Sun was still primarily concerned with the classic Triple Crown stats.
I remember running home from my very first job after clocking out (Swiss Chalet, morning potato peeler and cutter) because Jeter was sitting on 2,998 when I started my shift, only for my dad to text me that 2,999 came in the first inning. And of course he hit a home run for 3,000, because he’s Derek Jeter:
The first time I heard of WAR was in 2010, in a Sports Illustrated article outlining the stat and why Ben Zobrist was the second-best player in the game. I was 16 by then, I knew Jeter wasn’t number one at that point — and yet, one of the things that sold me on WAR in the first place was it was pretty bang on about how good he was. Albert Pujols was the best player in baseball and maybe I could see the value of Zobrist, but Jeter had a great 2009, finishing sixth that season with 6.7 fWAR. Ok, WAR makes some sense because yeah, Jeter was a top 10 player last season and the stat reflects that.
Of course the other elements of WAR would be less kind to the Captain. That article opened a lot of doors for me in terms of how I see baseball and what I find valuable, and what I found tied with Jeter’s inevitable decline had me in that “Jeter is incredibly overrated” internet camp that existed for a while, and presumably still does even in smaller numbers. The defense was not good, the way he seemed entrenched in the leadoff spot even as the OPS — I had a good handle on that one by now — was slipping into the .700s after a career in the .800s or better.
By that point I’m a teenager anyway, and the Class and Grace gimmick that Jeter was so known for was just less appealing. The cool ease with which Robinson Canó could drive a ball off the right-center wall or the sheer dash that Mike Trout brought in my second-favorite rookie season of all time was just more of what I wanted. The sequential retirement tours Jeter and Mariano Rivera took alternated between annoying me and leaving me with some of my favorite memories of baseball:
And then before you knew it Jeter was gone, and the Yankees had to figure out how to move on on the field, and if you remember, the off-the-field relationship wasn’t very good either. The golden boy image was at least a little bit tarnished, and Jeter went off to Miami. At the same time I’m in college, living on my own, figuring out all those little things that you have to if you want to wear clean clothes and have a functioning bathroom.
I started writing here, free and clear in the post-Jeter era while he was funking around trying to run the Marlins, and the Yankees found an immediate replacement for the face of the franchise role in Aaron Judge, a man I have written about more than anyone else. We all just, kinda stopped thinking about Derek Jeter outside of career highlights or the befuddling decisions he made in South Beach (thanks again for Stanton, Cap).
Of course he goes into the Hall of Fame one vote shy of unanimity, he liquidates his holdings in the Marlins, and he seems to patch up enough of the sore spots he had with the Yankees that he’s been re-embraced. I’m a little bit older, hopefully a small bit wiser and for all the love I have for baseball it’s no longer the most important thing in the world to me the way it was when I was eight. They are finally developing stats that are getting hard for ME to follow:
And yet I too have re-embraced Derek Jeter.
Yes, his defense could be terrible and the Yankees likely left runs on the table by not having Alex Rodriguez play shortstop after the trade. I think the strong silent stuff that he still tries to keep up on MLB on FOX in the postseason broadcasts is pretty silly. The Jump Throw was overused.
He is also unequivocally one of the finest baseball players I, you, or anyone else that has watched a game in the last half century have seen play. Nine seasons as a full-time, every day MLB shortstop while managing a 125 wRC+ is absurd. I wasn’t even a baseball fan until the year 2000 and I still get mad about the 1999 AL MVP voting. While “name the only Canadians to win an MLB MVP Award” is a great trivia question that has delivered me wins before, the 2006 award probably should have gone to Jeets, too.
I’m less interested and thus less involved in shouting at people over the Internet, which is where about 90 percent of How Good Was Derek Jeter discourse happens so I no longer have to be a part of that. Lastly, it just doesn’t matter to me whether Jeter was the sixth or the eighth or the 11th best player of an era. He was damn good.
A couple years ago we re-visited the Top 100 Yankees series, a project I loved very much. I still think my profile of Thurmon Munson might just be the best thing I’ve ever written here. Towards the end of that series we ruffled some people’s feathers by having Mickey Mantle supplant Lou Gehrig for second place, and I think there’s been some very intelligent pushback to the legacy of Joe DiMaggio that has annoyed some of the… shall we call them veterans of observing baseball. What I learned from all this is that the stack-ranking doesn’t matter. Certainly not for this team, for this franchise.
What matters is your cluster. That Mickey Mantle can be mentioned in the same cluster with the Iron Horse is what matters, that Jeter is usually the first guy mentioned after the guys shot in black and white matters.
Happy birthday, Cap.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JUNE 16: Jarren Duran #16 of the Boston Red Sox looks on after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on June 16, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Marcelo Mayer has had an ugly first full season in the big leagues. Ironically, the Red Sox general, season-long suckitude has helped him fly under the radar. If the Sox were playing well, his spot in the lineup would probably be a major topic of controversy; but as it is, he’s just one of a multitude of problems overwhelming the team. But the spotlight finally fell on him at the end of the Rockies series, thanks to a major blunder in the field that cost the Sox big time. Does it make sense to consider sending him down? Probably not, but some inside the organization are reportedly unhappy with a seeming lack of “mental toughness” from the infielder. (Sean McAdam, MassLive)
If Marcelo needs any inspiration, all he needs to do is look to his right. It’s only been 24 games, but Caleb Durbin has turned his season around after being arguably the single worst hitter in baseball for two months. “Pretty proud of him for where he was at,” Chad Tracy said. “With the expectations and the heat he was taking, he has just fought back and got up off the mat.” (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)
That Durbin – or any of the Sox – played well last night was a surprise considering the travel issues they faced getting back to Boston. The Sox didn’t land at Logan until 5 AM yesterday. (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)
Making the late arrival even worse was the bad news the team received about Roman Anthony when they got back home:
Roman Anthony (sprained right wrist/hand) hasn’t made any substantive progress while the Red Sox have been away, Chad Tracy said.
He occasionally tries to swing a lighter bat but hasn’t gotten to a real bat/hitting progression.
Considering Anthony’s injury and Mayer’s struggles, it’s been a bad year all-around for the once vaunted Big Three. And that obviously includes Kristian Campbell. Campbell isn’t exactly making a case to come back to the big leagues, but he’s still working at it. “[Adversity] does make you better,” said Campbell. “Everybody’s route and path is different. I’m working every day to get back, and they know that I really want to get back as soon as possible. I know I’ve got some things I need to correct down here first before I go back.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)
With Anthony out indefinitely, the Sox don’t have the outfield depth they once thought they had, and that depth could be further depleted if they trade from that group at the deadline. But in the case of uber-struggling Jarren Duran, at least, a trade doesn’t look likely. “What could Boston get back for the 2024 All-Star Game MVP? Would the return be worth it? The more likely scenario is for the Red Sox to hold Duran for the rest of this year, hope he has a strong second half to regain some value, then look to move him in the offseason.” (Mark Feinsand, MLB.com)
Another eventful big-league schedule means more chances to cash in on my MLB same-game parlay predictions.
Today's MLB picks are eyeing Paul Skenes to deal against the Cincinnati Reds, while I'm also targeting Walker Buehler to get revenge on his former team as he takes the ball for the San Diego Padres.
Skenes is averaging 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings over his last two starts, including a 10-strikeout performance last time out. He also owns a 2.68 FIP over the last month.
Andrew Abbott has pitched well on the surface, but his recent numbers suggest regression. He owns a 5.30 FIP over his last two outings while walking more than five hitters per nine innings.
Jacob Misiorowski has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season, and he continues to dominate. The Milwaukee Brewers right-hander owns a stellar 1.10 FIP across his last four starts and hasn't allowed a home run during that span.
He's also stayed Under 1.5 earned runs in four of his last five outings while pitching into the seventh inning or later in four of those starts.
Dodgers at Padres SGP: Buehler deals against ex-team
Walker Buehler has been showing shades of his former self. The San Diego Padres veteran owns a 2.33 FIP over his last two outings, and he's allowed just 0.87 HRs and BBs per nine innings during that span. Buehler has cashed the Under in earned runs surrendered in four straight starts.
The Los Angeles Dodgers send Roki Sasaki to the hill, and he is struggling. He has an FIP over six across his previous two appearances while posting a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Buehler will contain his ex-team, and the Padres will capitalize off Sasaki's struggles.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Royals vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
It is wheels up for the offenses.
The White Sox boast a powerful attack and will see a steady stream of relievers from a bullpen that ranks 29th in HR/FB this season.
The Royals are in a good spot themselves. They have an in-form offense that has hit .272 against righties in June.
White Sox opener David Sandlin has allowed 11 runs over 7.1 innings of work in June, and more damage should be coming his way here.
Kansas City will be forced to score to keep up, making the Over an attractive look. Bet to -120.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 42-31, +2.20 units
Over/Under bets: 38-31-4, +3.24 units
Royals vs White Sox weather
Temperatures should hover in the mid-60s, with winds blowing from the east. No real impact on hitting conditions.
Royals vs White Sox odds
Moneyline: Royals +115 | White Sox -135
Run line: Royals +1.5 (-175) | White Sox -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Royals vs White Sox trend
Chicago has hit the moneyline in 23 of the last 30 home games (+17.40 units, 53% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. White Sox.
How to watch Royals vs White Sox and game info
Location
Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Date
Friday, June 26, 2026
First pitch
7:40 p.m. ET
TV
Royals.TV, CHSN
Royals starting pitcher
TBD (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
White Sox starting pitcher
TBD (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Royals vs White Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Well, that game was at least a little differently shaped. Sort of. The Cubs broke out to a three-run lead after both starters were excellent. Then the porous Cub bullpen slowly gave back the lead with three different relievers being charged with a run each. But they scored in the tenth and held on. A last at-bat win for this team isn’t odd. That makes 11 of them now by my count. Nine walk-offs and two road wins in their last turn at the plate. That’s 25 percent of the team’s wins. Wow. So different, but not that different. This is a script they’ve followed at home.
Trent Thornton became the eighth different Cub reliever with a save in the first half. Anyone know the Cub record for different players recording saves in a season is? An even harder search would be what the record is at the intersection of most different players with a save and fewest saves. This was the team’s 12th save among 44 wins. Eight players to record 12 saves. Oh and the third intersection? The team is actually good, definitely record wise.
The Cubs swept a season series with the Mets for the first time since 2015. World Series championship in 2027 confirmed. Get your tickets now and place your bets. Surely there is some causation/correlation there, right? This team has so many contradictions. It’s a crazy wild ride. 10 wins in 13 games to finish the first half. Put otherwise, in two stretches, totaling 36 games, they won 30. In the other 45 games, they won 14. 83 percent winning percentage on the peaks and 33 percent winning percentage in the valleys. Unbelievable.
There are so many contradictions that I don’t know what to think of this team. The sum appears better than the parts. I somehow think this team ended up underachieving in the first half while also headed for a second half collapse due to the absolute lack of any frontline pitching. You can’t reasonably expect any of Cade Horton, Justin Steele, Ben Brown or Edward Cabrera to make significant contributions the remainder of this season. How is this team not headed for collapse?
And at the same time, I feel like a fool if I totally write this team off. Their offense has been one of the better units and I could argue they’ve underperformed. Is anyone other than Pete Crow-Armstrong having a particularly good season offensively? Other than being elite at taking walks, this offense hasn’t been that good. Is that modern baseball? Or should they actually be better in the second half? Can they hit enough to stay competitive? I don’t know how good this team really is. But I do know they are a lot of fun to follow. You know, other than when they make you want to pull your hair out.
Three Positives:
Pete Crow-Armstrong had two of the Cubs six hits. He drove in the decisive run with a 10th inning double.
Caleb Thielbar had a perfect eighth inning. He struck out two.
Trent Thornton locked down the 10th inning, facing the minimum.
Game 81, June 25: Cubs 4, Mets 3 (44-37)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Trent Thornton (.445). IP, 3 BF (Sv 1)
Hero: Matthew Boyd (.249). 4.2 IP, 21 BF, 4 H, 4 BB, 0 ER, 4 K
Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.242). 2-5, 2B, RBI
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Hoby Milner (-.258). 0 IP, 3 BF, 3 H, ER
Goat: Michael Busch (-.122). 1-5
Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.108). 0-4, R
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s RBI-double with one out in the tenth. (.290)
Mets Play of the Game: Jared Young’s solo homer off of Phil Maton leading off the seventh inning. (.237)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 79 Winner: Dansby Swanson received 148 of 153 votes.
Game 80 Winner: Dansby Swanson received 103 of 144 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
Michael Busch +18
Ben Brown +13.5
Carson Kelly +12.5
Trent Thornton +11.5
Jacob Webb/Jameson Taillon -8
Edward Cabrera -9.5
Phil Maton -10
Caleb Thielbar -13
Seiya Suzuki -22.5
Up Next: It’s best to not think about this weekend series. The Cubs won four straight and nine of 13 and then charitably forfeited the next three. Win one. Any one. That would be such a triumph at this point. Colin Rea (5-5, 4.99) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (8-3, 1.45). A totally reasonable matchup. A great way to spend my Friday night. Have I ever mentioned I have friends there who are rabid Brewers fans (and Packers and everything else Wisconsin, woohoo). Yep. There are going to be no unreasonable takes on a Friday night.
Gonna have to sweep this series to keep rolling to 10 straight. Those are the rules, right?
Jun 7, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
Several players who helped shape the success of the current Phillies run left in the off-season or even departed in the middle of 2026, in the case of Rob Thomson.
In the first installment, we covered the first few days for each of these players in their new homes. Now that we are in late June, there is a much better idea of how each of their seasons is going and whether the Phillies made the right decisions or not (there is still not enough time to judge but it’s fine).
Ranger Suárez’s Career Year
In 15 starts with Boston, Ranger Suárez is on pace for a career season. He is on pace to eclipse his 4.0 fWAR 2025 season, his innings total, and has a 2.83 ERA with an even better FIP.
The Red Sox have made a few tweaks with him; his primary fastball to right-handed hitters is his cutter, with a slight uptick in four-seam usage and fewer sinkers. Against left-handed hitters, Suárez is weirdly throwing a lot more four-seam fastballs and is getting worse results. In 2025, Suárez allowed a .611 OPS to lefties and is at .730 in Boston. Maybe there is a new tweak in the second half to cut those numbers down.
The changes have also cut his groundball rate down from a well above average 48% to 39.4%, so there could end up being some regression if this continues.
Another interesting wrinkle is that Boston has been cutting his outings a little quicker than the Phillies did. In 26 starts with the Phillies last season, he appeared in the sixth inning 20 times and in the seventh another 14. Through 15 starts in Boston, he’s appeared in the sixth inning eight times and only four in the seventh.
Part of this is probably because of organizational philosophy, the Red Sox losing more games, and also Suárez’s injury history. If it helps get him to 30 starts, then the juice is probably worth the squeeze here.
Castellanos Cut
While the Padres were in Philadelphia earlier this month, San Diego released Nick Castellanos and he has not signed with a team since. In 39 games with the Padres, Castellanos hit .191 with a .560 OPS and had -1.0 bWAR. He was one of the worst players in the sport.
Things have not gone well for Harrison Bader and Matt Strahm on their new teams. Bader has only played in 30 games and is currently on the injured list with a foot injury. He’s taken a major step back as a player overall, hitting just .170 with a .557 OPS and has not graded out nearly as well defensively.
There are significant red flags for Bader, his sprint speed and arm strength have taken nose dives, he’s missed most of the season because of injuries, and is 32. This all looks to be the signs of a player who isn’t going to be major league caliber anymore.
Matt Strahm is another player the Phillies seemed to give up on at the right time. His fastball velocity lost more than a full tick and he is now completely ineffective. His strikeout rate went down by 10% from 2025 to 2026, he is now walking hitters at a below average rate, and is not getting any soft contact.
In 25.2 innings, Strahm has a 5.96 ERA and looks like someone who will end up getting released before the season ends.
Taijuan Walker was released by the Phillies back in late April and signed a minor league deal with the Angels. He was cut then signed again at one point and most recently was released a few days ago. In three AAA starts with the Salt Lake Bees, Walker had a 4.91 ERA in 14.2 innings.
Eduardo Tait, the other player in the package that got the Phillies Jhoan Duran, has taken a step back as a 19 year old in A+ ball, hitting just .221 with an 81 wRC+.
More stuff
Walker Buehler made two starts against the Phillies in late May and early June, throwing a combined 11.1 innings of 3 run ball. For the season, Buehler has been a solid piece to the Padres rotation as a minor league signing with a 3.96 ERA in 72.2 innings this season.
Kody Clemens is having the best season of his career with a .767 OPS with the Twins. Neat.
Weston Wilson has split time between Baltimore and Seattle this year as a right handed corner utility option. Across 53 plate appearances, Wilson has a 78 OPS+ and has been a below replacement level player.
The best story for last, Donovan Walton has been amazing for the Los Angeles Angels. The 32-year-old journeyman middle infielder has played in 26 games with the Angels and has a .885 OPS. Maybe the Angels are willing to trade him and Wade Meckler at the deadline because they don’t seem to want to trade anyone else.
The Kansas City Royals have reached the season midpoint at 34-48, fourteen games below .500 and sitting in last place in the AL Central. It is not where anyone wanted to be, but Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco find more to talk about than the record alone would suggest.
The headline story continues to be Jac Caglianone, who leads the team with 14 home runs and is flirting with franchise records for June production. We break down the adjustments that have fueled his recent surge, the mechanical changes that are translating into real power output, and the realistic conversation about a Home Run Derby bid.
Carter Jensen’s 16-game hitting streak is a remarkable run for a rookie catcher and a reminder that the development pipeline is producing players who can contribute at the major league level. We examine his progress alongside a broader conversation about the coaching staff’s impact on hitting, with offensive metrics improving notably in June even as the overall record continues to disappoint.
Injury management remains a recurring concern. The decision-making around IL placements and strategic rest periods gets a candid evaluation, and we wonder whether the organization’s approach is protecting players for the long term or simply creating more instability in the short term. Bobby Witt Jr.’s All-Star candidacy and the latest voting updates are also covered, even as his health remains something fans are monitoring closely.
The episode rounds out with a look ahead to the upcoming series against the Chicago White Sox, including pitching matchup breakdowns, a discussion of the Royals’ draft prospects and the college-versus-high-school player development debate, and John Rave’s recent stance change and what it could mean for his offensive ceiling.
ST. LOUIS — The Arizona Diamondbacks activated outfielder Max Kepler from the restricted list following his completion of an 80-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.
Kepler, who signed a free agent deal with the Diamondbacks on June 7, hit .333 with two home runs in 10 minor league games. He was fifth in the batting order and played left field for the Diamondbacks against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Kepler was suspended in January for a positive test for Epitrenbolone, a metabolite of Trenbolone that’s contained in some products used in body-building stores and has been used in products to promote cattle growth. Kepler was the first player suspended by MLB for the substance since public announcements of the penalty details began in 2005.
“It’s a great opportunity for him,” Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said. “I’m glad that he’s here. … He’s been working his tail off to get back here as soon as possible, and the fact that he’s in this lineup tonight is not surprising to any of us. He’s going to go out there and help us win a baseball game by impacting it the right way.”
Kepler, 33, hit .216 with 18 homers and 52 RBIs with Philadelphia last year after agreeing to a one-year, $10 million contract. He was slowed in 2024 by left patellar tendinitis and had core surgery after the season to repair a sports hernia.
He has a .235 average with 179 home runs and 560 RBIs over an 11-year career.
“I don’t know what happened, but he paid his penalty,” Lovullo said. “He served it, and he’s here, and he wants to show the world that he can still play this game at a very high level.”
To make room for Kepler on the 40 man, the Diamondbacks moved RHP Ryne Nelson (strained right elbow) to the 60-day disabled list. Arizona also optioned OF Tim Tawa and LHP Mitch Bratt to Triple-A Reno and recalled RHP Juan Burgos.
COVERS INTEL: The Phillies are jumping on everything right now, with a 45.6% hard hit rate in their previous six contests. That's compared to a 40.4% mark in the last month. 
Kyle Manzardo
TJ Rumfield
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