Category: MLB

Yesterday the Nats made a big move by extending Jacob Young. Paul Toboni inked the Nats center fielder to a 4-year $23 million deal with an option for a 5th year. We broke down the deal itself yesterday, but now I want to look at the bigger picture. Specifically, I want to examine what this means for Dylan Crews.

Terms: Jacob Young and the Nationals reached an agreement on a four-year, $23 million contract extension that includes an $8 million option for a fifth season, according to a source familiar with the deal.

— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) November 6, 2026

With the Young deal, the Nats now have James Wood, Daylen Lile, Dylan Crews and Young under team control into the 2030’s. On the one hand, that is a great group of outfielders to have around for years to come. However, it also creates a surplus that you can trade from.

We know that Paul Toboni is not afraid to trade from a surplus. The most prominent example of that was the Curtis Mead trade, where he dealt a bat for an arm in Connelly Early. With Young locked up, the Nats now have a chance to make a similar sort of deal again.

Entering this offseason, I looked at either Dylan Crews or Jacob Young as potential trade pieces. They both profile as athletic, defense first right handed outfielders who are better against left handed pitching. Crews’ pedigree, raw power and bat speed give him a higher offensive ceiling. However, Young is the better defender and had an OPS 45 points higher last season. Now that Young has been extended, a trade is likely to be off the table.

After this extension, I would bet executives have been calling Paul Toboni and asking about Dylan Crews. Obviously Crews has not lived up to his potential so far as a pro, but there are still traits to dream on for other teams. His bat speed, hard hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity are all above the 60th percentile. Crews also provided positive value as a defender and baserunner.

There would be plenty of teams that would be willing to take a shot on the 24 year old former top prospect. A Blue Jays fan account, who I think puts out very smart content, talked about how he either wanted Crews or Jacob Young. It makes sense for them, and plenty of other teams also need outfield help.

Every single iteration of an offseason plan I devise for the Blue Jays includes acquiring one of Dylan Crews or Jacob Young from the Nationals. I'm simply attached to the hip with one of those two.

I #need.

— Damon (@Damon98_) November 3, 2026

Now that Young is off the board, Crews would be the one to trade. However, a move is far from a given. We saw last season that there is enough playing time for both of them to get at least semi-regular at bats. The Nats used a DH rotation last year, which often allowed them to have Wood, Crews, Lile and Young in the lineup at the same time. There is no reason they cannot do this again.

The Young extension is also not total proof that the regime is out on Crews. At $5.75 million per year, the Nats are not exactly paying Young like a set in stone everyday starter. He will get plenty of playing time, but this extension does not automatically mean he will play every day.

It does mean that Young is in the team’s long term plans though. If the right offer comes for Crews, I have no doubt that Toboni would pull the trigger. A Crews trade is certainly something worth monitoring. However, I do not necessarily think he is being shopped. 

As for Crews himself, his 2026 season was very frustrating. It was not all bad, but there was just never enough consistency. Whenever he did something good, he was unable to take that momentum and run with it. The best example of this came after he got the Nats first walkoff hit in August. I thought this had a chance to be a real turning point for him, but instead he went 0 for 11 in the three games afterwards.

This is so huge

Bigger than the win itself

Hoping this is the confidence builder Dylan Crews needs and he starts to build on it pic.twitter.com/oQnZiBw8Z1

— Kev (@klwoodjr) August 29, 2026

That pretty much summarizes his Nats tenure so far. However, he is entering his age 25 season and has shown flashes of excellence. If you do trade him, you run the risk of seeing him realize his potential with another team. On the other hand, it could also be the last time he has any real value. After the Young extension, this is a really interesting decision Paul Toboni has to make.

You see the talent when you watch Dylan Crews, but in 225 big league games, Crews has a .217 average and .648 OPS. That is simply not good enough for the former second overall pick. As we enter the offseason, the Nats have a decision to make. Do they give Crews another chance or is Paul Toboni happy to roll out an outfield of Lile, Young and Wood while getting the assets he can for Crews?

With the lockout less than a month away, we could get answers to that question pretty soon. There are cases for both sides, but I would certainly be listening to Crews trade offers now. I do not think there is any urgency to trade him, but after this Young extension, teams will definitely be calling about Crews. What would you guys do with the former LSU star?

Runs were hard to come by for the Glendale Desert Dogs on Friday night in a 1-0 road loss to the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League. Glendale only had five hits, all singles, and Dodgers prospects accounted for three of the five hits.

Third baseman Chase Harlan had two hits, while second baseman Charles Davalan had a single and walked, but that wasn’t enough for the Desert Dogs to touch home plate.

Cody Morse inherited runners on first and second base with two outs in the sixth inning, and stranded them with a groundout. Then Morse added a scoreless seventh, with one walk and a strikeout. The left-hander has been nearly spotless in his nine appearances so far in the Arizona Fall League, allowing only one unearned run on two hits and five walks in eight innings. To go with that 0.00 ERA, Morse has 14 strikeouts among his 33 batters faced for a tidy 42.4-percent strikeout rate.

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Sam Horn, the Missouri quarterback turned Dodgers minor league pitcher, did not pitch Friday, but in his professional debut in the AFL has a 3.86 ERA in seven innings with eight strikeouts and four walks in his seven games. Horn was among the 10 pitchers in Arizona profiled by Geoff Pontes at Baseball America.

“He mixes three pitches: a mid-90s four-seam fastball with seven feet of extension, an 83-85 mph sweeper and a firm upper-80s changeup with negative vertical break.” Pontes wrote. “Horn has a limited track record, but he’s an exciting upside play.”

Friday score

Scottsdale 1, Glendale 0

Saturday schedule

No games on Saturday, but Harlan is one of eight contestants in the Arizona Fall League home run derby, which begins at 5:30 p.m. PT on Saturday night.

This is it.

This is the foundation upon which the Phillies have built their team. This is the backbone, the thing they can theoretically count on most days of a week.

Yet it can still be improved. There are ways that it could be better, ways that the team could protect themselves and grab some insurance to make sure they are set for any kind of catastrophe that might befall them. They need to make sure that what happened at the end of the season, where they were using bullpen games and scrap heap pickups does not happen again.

How to improve the Phillies: Catcher
How to improve the Phillies: Infield
How to improve the Phillies: Outfield

Who they have

You know who they have.

Cristopher Sanchez will finish in the top three in Cy Young voting again this year, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo maybe both in the top ten. Andrew Painter looked much, much better later in the season after a rough debut and Aaron Nola seemingly found a secret formula to turn back the clock on his year.

After that? Ehh……

The depth that this team possesses is close to a hope and a prayer than it is to actual major league quality starting pitching. Not many teams have pitchers seven and eight deep in their minor league system, but at least others have been able to stockpile something decent in their levels. If we’re talking about some of the elite elite teams, this is what they have.

The Phillies have Gage Wood.

They had a bunch of names here and there, but all of those have gone away as minor league free agents. They have a few minor league options in Moises Chace and Ryan Dromboski, but they are rather unproven at this point. They need to have others.

Free agent options

It is highly unlikely that the team will be spending whatever free agent cash they have on starting pitching that moves the needle. Listing options like Tarik Skubal and Michael King is just an exercise in futility as they will not be options for the Phillies to discuss. If we’re being honest with ourselves, the aisles that the team will be shopping in aren’t going to generate a lot of enthusiasm.

Nestor Cortes – Again, the names I’m going to mention here are going to be the ones that don’t mind pitching for a bit in Lehigh Valley, knowing that they have some assurance their name will be called if an injury were to occur. With Cortes, the team gave him an actual major league deal at the end of the season thanks to their own lack of pitching depth and the hope he’d come back and give them something once he was sufficiently built up following his own surgery. That return never happened and the Phillies punted on that money. At this point, who really cared about the money, but at least there was a recognition that they didn’t have enough and they were trying a dart throw. Maybe bringing him back again, maybe even as a long reliever to start the year, might give them a leg up.

Michael Lorenzen – Speaking of returns. Lorenzen was the crazy guy that said he actually, truly, wanted to pitch in Colorado as a way to challenge himself as a starting pitcher. That experiment went about as well as you could imagine. By the time the carnage was complete, he had moved on to Toronto where he still was bad. It wasn’t long ago when Lorenzen looked like a serviceable member of a rotation, a five and dive guy that at least gave the team a reason not to have a bullpen day. Now, the Phillies could probably get him for a minor league deal and a spring invite.

Trevor Williams – Williams is an interesting choice here. He rehabbed a lot last year after getting internal brace surgery on his elbow and looked decent when he was on the mound. He stayed with Washington for a bit before latching on with Texas at the end of the season, where he performed well there too. He pitched well enough that some pitching starved team is likely to take a shot at him, giving him a guaranteed rotation spot instead of what the Phillies might be able to offer. Yet if he were to linger on the market for a while, he’s someone the team should be looking into.

Trade options

The options that the Phillies could look at to make a deal would probably involve another trade happening a la Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.

Think about it – why would the Phillies trade someone they have right now? Moving one of Sanchez, Wheeler or Luzardo at this point weakens the top three. Moving Painter is silly since the team can’t keep relying on high priced free agents to fill out the rotation. Moving Nola is probably not in the cards as not very many teams are going to want that contract.

Yet if they did move one of those five names, there could be something coming back. It would likely be of the prospect variety, a way to fill the minor league coffers with young, mold-able arms.

However, would the Phillies actually trade for starting pitching? That seems like a stretch. The place to look is probably at the arbitration eligible players. Making a deal with some of those players that might be higher priced would be the best way to grab someone. There is the chance they make a deal for someone who still has minor league options available, yet is a bit too expensive for a team to roster. That or the team would rather reallocate those resources elsewhere.

Predicted outcome

I’ve seen some people on the internets that have this notion that one of the courses of action the Phillies should be taking this offseason is to move one of their three starters to help shore up other areas of need that exist on the roster.

Why?

The position they are in right now with the rotation is one of strength, arguably one of the strongest units in the game today. They have three Cy Young caliber starters at the top, a young starter that looked to be figuring things out as the season wore on and a grizzled veteran that looked to turn his season around in the final few months. Any team in the game today would take that starting five and run with it. Weakening it for the sake of trying to build up other areas of the roster is not the smartest bit of roster construction.

Instead, what they should be doing is looking for starters that would be willing to bide time at the minor league level at the hopes of cracking a rotation later on. That would involve an injury in all likelihood, something no one should be wishing on this team. Instead, pitchers that are trying to hang on, trying to improve themselves could find that using some time around the Phillies’ pitching development program might do them some good. They’ll likely sign someone who has those coveted minor league options with the hopes of stashing needed depth.

As for a free agent splurge on a top starting pitcher? That seems unlikely.

As someone whose formative Yankees-watching years came during the late 1990s and early 2000s, Ken Singleton and Jim Kaat were two of the voices I most associate with the team. It came as a bit of a shock to me once I got to an age where I could readily look stuff up that neither were most known for wearing a Yankees’ uniform during their playing career. Singleton never played for the team, while Kaat threw a total of 63.1 innings across two seasons towards the end of his career.

Yet for fans around my age, they’re associated with the team forever thanks to their announcing work. Today happens to be the birthday of one of those guys, so let’s give a happy birthday to a great player and announcer in Jim Kaat.

James Lee “Jim” Kaat
Born: November 7, 1938 (Zeeland, MI)
Yankees Tenure: 1979-80

Kaat, of Dutch ancestry, was born in 1938 in Michigan to John and Nancy. Fittingly for said Dutch ancestry, his father was a shoemaker. His father also passed along a love of baseball to Jim.

The younger Kaat was a good athlete in a number of sports — including baseball — in his youth, but was still fairly small, even as he graduated high school. As a result, Kaat didn’t get much of a look from professional teams or big colleges, leading him to attend Hope College in Michigan, which plays in what is today called Division III in the NCAA.

However as he began his college life, Kaat began to shoot up in size. During his one year attending Hope, Kaat grew to 6-4. That, plus his continuing good run on the field, finally began to get him looks from MLB teams. In June 1957, he inked a deal with the Washington Senators.

Kaat made quick work of the minors and received a call-up in August 1959. He made a handful of appearances for Washington that season and the next. Kaat eventually became a big league regular in 1961, albeit not exactly for the Senators. Ahead of the 1961 season, Washington moved to Minnesota and became the Twins. There, Kaat would emerge as one of the Twins’ first stars and often the ace of their rotation.

Over the next 13 years, Kaat would become a mainstay for a Twins’ team that quickly became pretty good. In 1965, the Twins won the AL Pennant and took the Dodgers all the way to Game 7 of the World Series. Kaat was entrusted to make three starts in the series, including the decisive Game 7. He and Minnesota took the loss that day, but considering their offense was blanked by Sandy Koufax in arguably his most famous performance, Kaat shouldn’t be blamed too much.

On an individual level, Kaat would make two All-Star appearances over his career with the Twins. He also became known as the preeminent defender on the mound. Starting in 1962, he won 16 consecutive pitcher Gold Gloves, tying him with Brooks Robinson for the most wins in a row. His record for pitching Gold Gloves was later surpassed by Greg Maddux, although there was a one-year break in his run.

The Twins returned to the postseason in 1969, appearing in the first ever American League Championship Series. They had been led there in part by new manager Billy Martin. However, Kaat wasn’t used at all by Martin in the three-game sweep at the hands of the Orioles, as the manager had a distrust of the pitcher, believing that Kaat hadn’t fully backed previous Twins’ manager Sam Mele, who Martin had served on the coaching staff under. Despite returning to the postseason, the Twins opted to move on from Martin after just one year.

Kaat returned to favor under Bill Rigney in 1970, and the Twins again advanced to the ALCS. However, Minnesota again was swept by the Orioles. Kaat started Game 3, but once again fell victim to a gem from a Hall of Famer, this time by Jim Palmer, who allowed one run and struck out 12 in a complete game.

The Twins began to fall back to the pack after that. In 1973, owner Calvin Griffith opted to put Kaat on waivers after the two had previously sparred over salary. The Chicago White Sox snagged him and were rewarded with arguably the two best years of Kaat’s career. According to Baseball Reference, Kaat posted 14.8 WAR over the 1974-75 seasons, making his third and final All-Star appearance in the second of those two years. That wasn’t enough to get Chicago to contend though, and they traded Kaat to the Phillies in December 1975.

By this point, Kaat was in his late 30s. After a good debut season in Philly, helping them to the NLCS, he struggled the next two years and moved mostly to the bullpen by 1979. In May of 1979, the Yankees purchased him from the Phillies. He was pretty good in 58.1 innings over 40 games with the Yankees and opted to re-sign with them for 1980. However, he got off to a bad start to that year, and in April, the Cardinals purchased him from New York.

Kaat remained in St. Louis for the next four seasons. Individually, Kaat’s numbers in St. Louis were never all that dominant, but he became a respected member of the Cardinals’ bullpen. He also got to finally enter the winner’s circle. Kaat appeared in four games of the 1982 World Series, as St. Louis beat the Brewers. Kaat was dinged with a blown save in Game 4, but pitched well otherwise.

He played one further season with the Cardinals in 1983, marking the 25th of his MLB career. Kaat is one of 31 players who have appeared in a major league game in four different decades.

Following his playing career, Kaat got into the broadcasting booth. He first joined the Yankees’ team in 1986 but left after that season. Following a stint with the Twins, he returned to the Yankees in 1995 and remained with them through 2006. He was regularly honored with Emmys for Sports Broadcasting during that tenure. He retired from the Yankees after 2006, but later returned for MLB Network shortly after that channel began airing. Kaat did occasional work for MLBN through 2022, when he officially hung up his mic.

Having appeared on the ballot on previous occasions, Kaat was voted into the Hall of Fame via the Golden Era Committee (also called the veteran’s committee) as part of the class of 2022. These days, Kaat resides down in Florida, playing golf and being a parent and grandparent.

Jim Kaat wasn’t a Yankee for very long, but for many of us, we’ll always associate his familiar voice with the Yankees.

Good morning, LSB.

There is not much going on in terms of Rangers news this morning.

Bruce Bochy is a virtual lock to be voted into the Hall of Fame on the contemporary era ballot. And Dusty Baker, I guess.

Ken Rosenthal writes that all it took was a little lockout for baseballs biggest agents to all become best friends.

And finally, Nico Harrison should be in jail.

That’s all for this morning. Have a good weekend!

Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong won his second straight Gold Glove earlier this week, perhaps the second of several such awards.

Friday night, PCA received another defensive award, this time the Platinum Glove for the best overall fielder in the National League. Here are some of the numbers that got him that award:

Platinum Pete 🤩

Pete Crow-Armstrong is your 2026 NL Rawlings Platinum Glove Award winner 👏 pic.twitter.com/djjCTZ57S6

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) November 7, 2026

PCA’s former teammate Cody Bellinger won the American League Platinum Glove:

Former teammates Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cody Bellinger are MLB’s 2026 Platinum Glove winners!

This photo of the two is incredible.

(📸 @RawlingsSports) pic.twitter.com/ROfHCLOx5D

— Carson Wolf (@TheWrigleyWire) November 7, 2026

PCA is the second Cub to win the Platinum Glove (also Anthony Rizzo in 2016). In addition, the Cubs won the team Gold Glove for 2026:

That’s the power of glove 😮‍💨

Congratulations to the @Cubs, winners of the Rawlings Gold Glove Team Award as the Best Defensive Team in the National League for the second year in a row! pic.twitter.com/zRyJcXaPi5

— MLB (@MLB) November 7, 2026

The Cubs have proven over the last couple of years how much defense matters. They also put together the best offensive team in MLB in 2026. If only the pitching staff had matched the hitting and defense, we might be talking about a Cubs World Series appearance this year. That’s the job of Jed Hoyer this offseason — to put together such a pitching staff.

Congratulations to PCA and the Cubs team on these defensive awards. Here are six and a half minutes of PCA defensive highlights:

The Colorado Rockies have never seemed to be particularly enthusiastic about free agency. The organization has a reputation for being insular, holding on to familiar players, and generally preferring to do things its own way.

But just how different is Colorado’s approach from the rest of the NL West?

It’s one thing to avoid spending like the Los Angeles Dodgers, but what about the San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, and Arizona Diamondbacks? Are the Rockies really that far behind their division rivals when it comes to bringing in outside talent?

I wanted to find out, so I went through seven years of FanGraphs’ RosterResource transaction records to compare major- and minor-league free-agent activity across all five teams.

The results weren’t particularly flattering.

Seven years of free agency

From 2020 through 2026, the Rockies recorded just 90 major- and minor-league free-agent agreements. Every other NL West team recorded at least 137.

NL West free-agent agreements, 2020–2026

Team	MLB	MiLB	Total
Giants	58	126	184
Padres	40	128	168
Dodgers	62	90	152
Diamondbacks	41	96	137
Rockies	23	67	90

Source: FanGraphs RosterResource transaction charts.

Colorado recorded approximately 44% fewer agreements than the average of its four division rivals. While I expected the Rockies to trail the Dodgers, I wasn’t expecting them to finish this far behind everybody else.

At the major-league level, Colorado recorded just 23 agreements, compared with 40 for San Diego, the next-lowest team.

Three of Colorado’s agreements brought back Jhoulys Chacín, José Ureña and Jacob Stallings.

Not exactly a reunion tour anyone was demanding.

Of course, players have to agree to sign, and Colorado isn’t always an attractive destination, especially for pitchers considering Coors Field. Franchise reputation and a team’s competitive outlook can influence those decisions.

But money matters, too. If another organization offers a pitcher $10 million a year, the Rockies could offer $13 million. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll sign, but it’s a pretty good reason to answer the phone.

When the Rockies spend

I also wanted to see what each NL West team received from its biggest free agent contracts.

Using Spotrac, I identified each team’s ten highest-average-annual-value (AAV) outside free agent agreements whose playing periods began between 2020 and 2026, including contracts tied at the tenth-highest AAV. I then used Baseball Reference to calculate the rWAR accumulated under those agreements through the 2026 season.

Some agreements remain active, so the totals will change as those contracts continue. For the financial comparison, I counted only the contract value attributable to seasons through 2026 rather than including future seasons that haven’t been played.

Combined guarantees and rWAR from each team’s highest-AAV free-agent contracts

Team	Combined Contract Guarantees	rWAR	Cost per rWAR
Dodgers	$1,892.5 million	+68.6	$11.4M
Padres	$497.0 million	+39.7	$6.2M
Giants	$616.5 million	+24.4	$12.7M
Diamondbacks	$457.5 million	+14.0	$24.4M
Rockies	$239.0 million	-3.5	–

Sources: Spotrac contract terms and Baseball-Reference rWAR. Production is limited to the specific qualifying contracts through 2026, excluding subsequent extensions or new agreements.

The Rockies are the only team in this comparison with a negative combined return from their largest free-agent agreements.

Kris Bryant has contributed -1.6 rWAR since signing his seven-year, $182 million contract before the 2022 season. Michael Lorenzen produced -1.7 rWAR on his $8 million agreement in 2026, while Jurickson Profar finished at -1.6 rWAR after signing for $7.75 million in 2023.

There have been some positive returns. Tomoyuki Sugano contributed 1.8 rWAR in 2026, Willi Castro added 1.1 and José Quintana produced 0.4.

Now consider Los Angeles.

Freddie Freeman has produced 23.7 rWAR under his six-year, $162 million contract through 2026. Shohei Ohtani has contributed another 18.9, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto has accumulated 12.7.

That’s 55.3 rWAR from three players, compared with a negative combined return from Colorado’s entire qualifying group.

Of course, the Dodgers spent considerably more money to get those results. Their qualifying contracts account for approximately $784 million in salary through 2026, or $11.4 million per rWAR.

San Diego has been even more efficient, spending roughly $246 million while generating 39.7 rWAR, or about $6.2 million per win. Ha-Seong Kim alone contributed 15.1 rWAR under his four-year, $28 million agreement.

San Francisco received 5.2 rWAR from Carlos Rodón and 7.1 from Matt Chapman under their original agreements.

Every organization has expensive contracts it would like to forget. Arizona certainly didn’t get what it hoped for from Madison Bumgarner or Jordan Montgomery, and even the Dodgers have made costly mistakes.

Colorado, meanwhile, spent approximately $184 million on its qualifying agreements through 2026 and received a combined -3.5 rWAR.

A positive return would have been nice.

Down on the farm

Both Colorado and San Diego brought back roughly 16% of their recorded minor-league free-agent agreements from 2020 through 2026. But the Padres recorded 128 agreements compared with just 67 for the Rockies.

During 2024 and 2025 alone, San Diego recorded 50 minor-league agreements, followed by San Francisco with 39, Los Angeles with 31 and Arizona with 28.

Colorado recorded just 20.

Minor-league free agency offers relatively inexpensive opportunities to build depth, create competition and find players who might benefit from different coaching or a change of scenery.

For a team that has struggled to develop pitching, that seems like a market worth exploring.

Signs of life in 2026

Free agency is only one part of roster construction, and Colorado’s lack of activity appears to have extended beyond it.

During 2024 and 2025, the Rockies recorded just 14 acquisitions through trades and cash deals, fewer than every other NL West team. They also traded away only eight players, compared with 46 for San Diego and 38 for Los Angeles.

In 2026, however, the Rockies recorded 15 acquisitions through trades and cash deals, six waiver claims and 12 players traded away.

Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes have also shown a willingness to pursue outside starting pitching. During their first offseason, ahead of the 2026 season, they signed Michael Lorenzen, José Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano to major-league contracts.

The Rockies pursued a different type of player in 2026, but their overall free-agent activity remained relatively unchanged. Colorado recorded just 15 combined major- and minor-league free-agent agreements, still fewer than any of its division rivals.

More activity, better results?

So which has hurt the Rockies more? Their reluctance to participate in free agency, or their inability to identify the right players when they do?

Maybe the Rockies would have been just as bad if they’d signed twice as many free agents. Given the returns on some of their biggest contracts, I wouldn’t rule it out.

Signing more players won’t help much if the Rockies can’t identify and develop the right ones. But free agency offers opportunities to add talent without surrendering prospects, and the market is open.

For now, I’d settle for more activity. After years of watching a moribund organization, a little movement would be welcome.

After all, seven years of relative inactivity haven’t produced much worth protecting.

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Hello my friends and welcome to the weekend!

Let’s get you caught up on the latest from around baseball.

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, the Mariners hired Washington state native Tanner Swanson to serve as their new bench coach.
• Over at The Feed, commenter Suburban Shocker shared a text they received from a former colleague of Jason Kanzler about why they think the Mariners made the right decision in their managerial hire.

Around the league…

• The Nationals have reportedly agreed to a four-year, $23 million contract extension with outfielder Jacob Young.
• The Mets have re-signed right-handed reliver Robert Stock to a one-year deal.
• The Cardinals announced that they have promoted assistant general manager Rob Cerfolio to the post of GM.
• The Blue Jays said that recent Islamophobic posts made by outfielder Anthony Santander do not represent the views of the organization.
• Corbin Carroll successfully underwent elbow surgery and expects to have a normal offseason workout regimen as he prepares for 2027.
• Ben Balder at Baseball America highlighted 10 international prospects to watch from the 2027 class, including incoming Mariner Eudy Yuten. ($)

Bobby Witt Jr. becomes the first three-time winner of the Heart and Hustle Award.

Created by the MLBPAA in 2005, the Heart & Hustle Award recognizes an active player who demonstrates a passion for baseball and best embodies the values, spirit and traditions of the game. Each of the 30 teams has one nominee selected by a committee of former players, with fans, alumni and active Major League players voting to determine the overall winner.

Witt has been Kansas City’s nominee in each of his first five Major League seasons, establishing himself as one of the game’s top all-around players while also making an impact in the clubhouse and community. 

David Lesky has more on new Royals assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense.

He’s very big on pre-pitch planning. Go to the plate with a plan, and it’s much easier to execute than without one. That lets a hitter jump into good counts or lay off the pitch they should lay off. With that, he’s done an excellent job throughout his career of helping hitters with a variety of swings because the 3-0 swing shouldn’t be the same as the 0-2 swing, which shouldn’t be the same as the 1-1 swing. Situational awareness is the biggest thing.

I didn’t have much conversation about Mense after the hire was announced, but I did talk to a couple of people who noted how great he is on the mental side of the game. That probably shouldn’t be a surprise given that he has a Master’s degree in Counseling Psychology with an emphasis in sport psychology. It’s an interesting profile given that the Royals chose to reassign Melissa Lambert, the previous director of behavioral science/Major League mental performance. I’m still under the impression they plan to hire someone else for the dugout for that role, but the fact that Mense has that educational background is interesting to me.

Philip Ruo at Royals Keep writes about eight free agents the Royals should target, such as Taylor Ward.

Ward is another player who took a major step back in production after being traded and is the 67th-ranked free agent. Ward posted an 117 wRC+ in Baltimore, which fell to 23 with the Mariners after the trade. Even before his disastrous trade, Ward’s power had evaporated. After hitting 36 home runs in 663 plate appearances in 2025 with the Angels, Ward hit only seven homers in 506 PAs with Baltimore (and at a more homer-friendly ballpark) and zero homers in Seattle. 

Interestingly, despite his dip in home runs, his .336 wOBA in Baltimore was roughly the same as his .339 wOBA in 2025. This was largely due to his increase in walk rate from 11.3% to 16.3% and a decrease in strikeout rate from 26.4% to 20.4%. If Ward can combine his increased plate discipline with a revival of his power, he could be a valuable addition to the Royals, especially as a right-handed batter. He would likely also be willing to sign a one-year prove-it deal to increase his value, and the Royals could be beneficiaries of this opportunity. 

The White Sox signed former Royals pitcher Alec Marsh to a minor league deal.

The Royals acquired a 28-story office building near Crown Center to lease out as office space.

The Cardinals promote Rob Cerfolio as the new general manager.

The Nationals sign outfielder Jacob Young to a four-year, $23 million extension.

Albert Pujols and Morgan Ensberg will interview for the Astros managerial opening.

Five international players to know this offseason.

The Mets and Dodgers are likely to pursue Tarik Skubal.

A look at the five tiers of free agents.

What to know about next week’s general manager meetings.

28 players get “Super-Two” arbitration status.

Bo Naylor testifies in the Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz pitch-rigging trial.

The Blue Jays denounce anti-Muslim posts by Anthony Santander.

Retired umpires sue MLB alleging their pensions were underpaid.

MLB Network reverses their decision and will keep Intentional Talk on the air.

LIV Golf is officially done.

The SEC is considering a luxury tax for excessive spending on players.

FOX purchases Roku for $22 billion.

Tesla will pull the plug on the Cybertruck after lagging sales.

There will be a Stranger Things prequel.

Your song of the day is Daryl Hall & John Oates with I Can’t Go For That.

Nick Morabito was originally drafted by the Mets in the second round of the 2022 Major League Draft out of Gonzaga College High School in Washington D.C. He spent the next few seasons slowly progressing through the Mets minor league system, playing well and falling somewhere near the bottom of lists of the top ten Mets prospects.

After the 2025 season, the Mets added Morabito to their 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, and in May 0f the 2026 season, with the glut of injuries in the Mets outfield, Nick Morabito earned his callup to the major league team. He made his debut on May 19th, facing the Washington Nationals in the city where he grew up. He lasted a week with the major league team before being sent down.

He earned his second callup at the start of September and remained with the team through the end of the season. He finally collected his first hit against the Rays, going 2-for-2 and driving in three runs. In his second, month-long stint with the major league club he split time between starting and coming off the bench as a defensive replacement.

Over the course of his 19 games split across his two stints, he hit .195/.283/.244, ending his season with eight hits, four RBI, and three walks. He struck out sixteen times, hit two doubles but didn’t hit a home run at any point. He stole one base and was caught stealing twice. There’s not a lot that can be read into such a small sample size with such a long distance between the two stints.

The stolen base number didn’t depict the kind of threat he posed in the minors on the bases. Across 414 games in the minor leagues he stole 172 bases, stealing 59 across two levels in 2024, 49 with the Binghamton Rumble Ponies in 2025, and 42 in 114 games in Syracuse in 2026. If that skill can translate to the major league level, as long as he is able to get on base (which he did have a problem doing with the Mets in 2026) he will be a major threat.

Morabito has always profiled as a fourth outfielder type, and his usage and play during his time help depict that as a future role for him. His defense was good during his short time with the major league team, being worth 3 OAA in the outfield in just 19 games. That kind of defense will play, even off the bench, and if he can maintain that kind of defensive production off the bench, along with the speed he has showcased in the minors he will be able to carve out a role as a fourth outfielder and pinch runner.

2026 was Nick Morabito’s debut season, but across two stints, he wasn’t able to make much of an impact. If he can access the speed and defense he showcased in the minor leagues, he will be able to carve out a role in the major leagues. That’s a profile that would work well with the Mets as currently constructed, as their outfield seems pretty set going forward with Juan Soto, Carson Benge, and A.J. Ewing. But a cheap, speedy outfielder with good defense is something a baseball team can always use, and the Mets might have one in-house already.

Since his arrival in a trade with Atlanta during the 2022-2023 offseason, William Conteras has been a rock-solid catcher for the Brewers. He has been one of the league leaders at the position for the past four seasons, earning two All-Star appearances and receiving MVP votes in 2023 and 2024. While his 2026 season took a bit of a hit, his leadership and play in the postseason were critical to the World Series run, culminating in him being named the World Series MVP this season. He is approaching free agency in 2028, and with the Brewers looking for a future catcher from there and beyond, an extension for Contreras has to be in play.

Entering 2027, Contreras is under team control for one more year. While he would have been arbitration-eligible, the Brewers signed him to a one-year contract with an option last offseason. They immediately picked up the option after the season was over, and he will make $15.5 million in 2027. The Brewers may have been able to save a little money by declining the option and heading to arbitration, but they elected not to go that route this time. That also sets up a baseline for what an extension would cost. At minimum, any extension would need to be above that $15.5 million in average annual value.

While the general expectation with the Brewers would be to prep for the next prospect, the state of the Brewers’ farm system means that isn’t a viable option. Jeferson Quero was the prospect that they were hoping would take over at catcher following Contreras, but injuries have derailed that plan. In 2026 for Triple-A Nashville, he played just 48 games at catcher while serving as the designated hitter in 71 games. From July on, he only caught a total of three games for Nashville. Looking further down the minors, Marco Dinges is ranked No. 14 in the Brewers system on MLB Pipeline. However, he also faced similar problems, and served as a DH for most of the season between High-A Wisconsin and Double-A Biloxi. He also only caught three games from June on, and his season ended early on August 12.

That puts the Brewers in a tough spot at catcher. They don’t have a ready catcher waiting in the minors, and anyone they bring up would need time to develop. The only other option currently on the roster is Bo Naylor, who the Brewers acquired at the trade deadline from Cleveland. He spent a month in Nashville before spending September on the Brewers’ bench, barely playing at all. While he could be the Brewers’ backup catcher in 2027, he likely won’t be much more than that.

What that means is the Brewers will have to spend heavily in the near future at catcher. That could mean signing Contreras to a long-term extension, and hopefully find their future catcher during that time. It could also mean spending heavily with their prospect capital, trading players in their system to get a highly-ranked catcher. Even if the Brewers do that, whoever they bring up will still need some time to develop. They could also look at acquiring an established major league catcher by trade, but that would also require a high prospect cost, and potentially even higher than bringing in a prospect.

The pending lockout further complicates the situation as well. Even if the Brewers do acquire a catcher by trade, that catcher will likely need time to develop. For a minor-league player, it would be better to spend a season with Contreras in the majors. However, if the 2027 season is shortened due to a lockout, that takes away valuable development time. Depending on how much it is shortened, any prospect could be thrust into the primary role once Contreras becomes a free agent. This would be lessened by acquiring a major-league ready catcher, but there’s still the consideration of time to integrate with the pitching staff. It’s less of a time concern, but there still is one.

The solution that would be the most optimal is keeping Contreras around long-term. He can hold down the position for the next few seasons while the Brewers continue to search for that future catcher. Once they find him and he’s had time to develop in the minors, he can serve as a backup to Contreras for a year or two. As the contract hits the later years, and Contreras starts to feel the age from playing the position so long, he could transition to another position (likely DH or first base) while the new catcher takes over. Contreras can still serve as a mentor while providing value in the lineup to finish up the contract.

Looking at the extension, we have a baseline for Contreras at $15.5 million from his last year of arbitration. Here’s a look at the current top contracts at catcher around the league (contracts from Spotrac):

• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): six years / $105 million ($17.5 million AAV), signed in 2025 through 2030 with $20 million option for 2031
• J.T. Realmuto (Phillies): three years / $45 million ($15 million AAV), signed in 2026 through 2028
• Will Smith (Dodgers): 10 years / $140 million ($14 million AAV), signed in 2024 through 2033
• Salvador Perez (Royals): 2 years / $25 million ($12.5 million AAV), signed for 2026 and 2027
• Sean Murphy (Braves): six years / $73 million ($12.17 million AAV), signed in 2023 through 2028 with $15 million option for 2029
• Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays): five years / $58 million ($11.6 million AAV), signed in 2026 through 2030
• Samuel Basallo (Orioles): eight years / $67 million ($8.375 million AAV), signed in 2026 through 2033 with $18 million option for 2034

Contreras’ option for 2027 will already make him one of the highest paid catchers in the league. It puts him ahead of Realmuto at $15 million, and Raleigh’s highest earning years come later in his contract (he will earn $12 million in 2027 and $23 million in 2028). Smith will earn just $8 million in 2027, but he also has a total of $50 million in deferred money in his contract. By cash paid out, Contreras currently will earn the most of any catcher in 2027, pending any other deals this offseason. Raleigh is the player to beat here, with his 23.5 fWAR leading the position over the last five years. Contreras is 2nd in fWAR at catcher, posting a 19.5 fWAR in the last five years.

With that in mind, it’s reasonable to see that a contract approaching nine-figures may be needed to keep Contreras long-term. There is no chance he would sign a deal with a lower AAV than the $15.5 million he is making this season. Spotrac posted earlier this offseason that Contreras projects towards a six year, $86 million contract, but that is too low for an extension. It would only be an AAV of $14.33 million, and it’s highly unlikely that Contreras signs an extension with an AAV lower than what he’s making in 2027.

Pushing his AAV ahead of Raleigh might be enough to get it done. The team might have to push towards a nine-figure contract to make it happen. Six years at $110 million ($18.33 million AAV) would put him ahead of Raleigh in AAV, but the Brewers can also structure it to be more reasonable. With an infusion of money from the postseason run, it may make sense to include a higher signing bonus and lower the yearly salary. That would take him through his age 35 season, and by then there would be concerns on if the long career as a catcher is taking its toll.

Contreras has been an integral part of the Brewers for the last four seasons. He has become one of the best catchers in franchise history and one of the best currently in the league. With one more year until he becomes a free agent, the Brewers will need to make a significant investment at some point in the near future. Whether that is a big contract or a major trade, that moment is coming soon. Investing in Contreras may be one of the smarter moves they can make.

The last full week of games for the AFL finished Friday with the Peoria Javelinas playing to a 3-2 record after having their Monday game cancelled due to unplayable field conditions. The Javelinas finished the week with a 16-10 record, first in the league and a half-game up on the Surprise Saguaros.

All six teams begin the playoffs next Thursday but the Javelinas have a first-round bye due to their record. The two top finishers get to take Thursday off after all teams complete the regular season on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

The six teams play a round-robin tournament that finishes with the championship game on Nov. 14.

HR Derby

The Fall League Home Run Derby begins today at 5:30 pm PST and will stream on MLB.com. Eight hitters from the six teams will compete, including three from the Javelinas. 

Outfielder Alex McCoy, the Padres No. 26 prospect, joins two other sluggers from Peoria. McCoy is currently tied for second in the home run lead in the league and is first on the team (5). His 16 RBI is tied for second on the team. He also has the hardest hit ball of the Fall season so far, at 118.2 mph, and it traveled 435 feet.

The derby consists of three rounds, and each hitter has three outs for each round, with the top achievers advancing.

Fall Stars Game

The Fall Stars game will be played on Sunday at 5 pm PST on MLB Network and MLB.com. Ten of the top 100 prospects per MLB Pipeline will be playing in the game. The two teams, representing the National League and the American League, will face off at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick.

Outfielder Alex McCoy and RHP Kannon Kemp will represent the Padres and the Javelinas in the contest. McCoy will be one day removed from participating in the Home Run Derby. There are six Javelinas on the roster for the NL team.

Like the MLB game, the AFL game has the Final Two pick before the final roster is released. Padres prospect, infielder Justin DeCriscio, is one of the three NL players in the final vote. That winner will be announced on Saturday after fans were able to vote until yesterday.

The final AFL report for the 2026 season will come after the championship game next weekend.

Winter Leagues

The Latin Winter Leagues began in mid-October but no MLB or MiLB players joined in until after the end of the 2026 season. Multiple Padres minor leaguers are involved and Padres free agent outfielder Ramón Laureano is playing for Escogido of the Dominican Winter League.

A weekly update on the Winter Leagues will begin after the AFL season is complete.

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Padres News:

• Mason Miller was a lights out closer for much of the season, but he had some struggles. What grade did he receive from Lincoln Zdunich of Gaslamp Ball?

• AJ Cassavell of Padres.com breaks down how Craig Stammen fared in his first season as Padres manager.

Baseball News:

• Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cody Bellinger win Platinum Glove Awards.

• Jacob Young and the Washington Nationals agreed to an extension.

• Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals named Heart & Hustle Award winner for third time.

• Rob Cerfolio was tabbed as the new general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals.

This is based on nothing but pure speculation. The team gave up what at the time looked like a large haul to acquire the closer that has stabilized the back of their bullpen and probably wouldn’t be too enthused to move him again.

Yet as the price for elite relief pitching is probably going to keep climbing higher and higher, so moving someone like Duran to help other areas of need is at least something worth talking about. Should the Phillies move Jhoan Duran this offseason?

For me, the answer is two fold. First, there is no reason to move him in the offseason as they still have the roster to make something happen in the playoffs. Losing their best reliever is shooting themselves in the foot for no real reason. Second, the idea for moving Duran probably rests with the ideas that someone like Alex McFarlane could step into the role of closer with the Phillies and be at least 85% of what Duran delivers, something that seems doubtful right now. There is the other idea that moving Duran would net the Phillies at least one top prospect that their system actually needs right now. As one of the worst farm systems in the game, they could use an infusion of talent, but the cost of doing so simply isn’t worth it for a team with desires to make and compete in the playoffs.

Now, if they are doing poorly at the trade deadline, this question gets asked again….

Good morning Birdland,

There is very little “real” news around baseball right now. The GM meetings take place next week, so perhaps some interesting nuggets will come out of that. But for now, we are in a holding pattern.

While big moves rarely occur during those meetings, they can lay the groundwork for seismic happenings later in the offseason. It has been reported that the Orioles are open to trading just about anyone on the roster, so you would assume that they will be particularly chatty.

Back in the summer it was reported that the Orioles had discussed deals involving Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser. This was prior to when the team ended up trading away Adley Rutschman and Taylor Ward, so perhaps they were just keeping options open. But little has happened since then to indicate that they should be committed to any one on this team. They have underperformed for more than two years. Change of some significance is needed.

While it has been reported that the team is open to dealing anyone outside of Pete Alonso, that doesn’t mean that everyone is equally easy to move. Gunnar Henderson, for example, would command a huge return. Yes, he has not lived up to his MVP-level talent recently, but he is still a Top 10 shortstop in MLB with two years of team control remaining. The likelihood he is dealt seems small. The same is true for guys that recently got extensions, like Samuel Basallo, Shane Baz, and Kyle Bradish. These are players you believe in, and you just gave them big raises. Moving on now wouldn’t make much sense.

Then there is a chunk of the roster that would be broadly unappealing in a trade of any import. Tyler O’Neill, Ryan Helsley, Jeremiah Jackson, Christian Franklin, and Rece Hinds, among others, aren’t going to be particularly interesting to good teams. They could be traded, sure, but that would be more about clearing space on the roster than attempting to get better in 2027.

Of course, there is a group of moveable players with upside that could be involved in a bigger deal. This group probably includes guys like Cowser, Blaze Alexander, and Coby Mayo. Not perfect players by any means, but with skillsets that would help most teams. If the Orioles want to upgrade in the outfield or on the mound, they may be able to package a major league talent like that with some minor leaguers to get a deal done, even if it hurts them in other ways.

But the type of player that seems most likely to be traded away is the one that might just need a new kind of scenery. They have been given some playing time, but it’s not working out. They are viable on the big league stage, but underwhelming. And the team might feel like they have some internal options to step in already. That is the bucket where Holliday would seem to fit.

The team has infield options in-house to replace Holliday. Alexander or a returning Jordan Westburg could probably step in at second base. At the same time, he has top prospect pedigree and has flashed enough to be worth something in a trade. Holliday alone won’t net the O’s an upgrade somewhere else on the roster, but he could be a reasonable starting point in a deal.

The Orioles do seem poised to move a big name player this offseason. There is no guarantee it will be Holliday. But he certainly seems like the most obvious candidate.

Links

Could Holliday be an O’s trade candidate this winter? | MLB.com
Yes, he could and maybe should be. He has been a fine player for the Orioles, serviceable. But he is yet to really look like a star, and maybe never will be.

Looking at Orioles’ priorities for November | Baltimore Baseball
I do not expect much to get done in November, not just in Baltimore but everywhere. Teams don’t really know what the rules are going to be for 2027 yet, so how can then make moves of any significance? Seems tough!

Ranking all 30 MLB rosters as the offseason gets going | MLB.com
Pretty much middle of the road. Not a shock, really. And honestly a decent starting point for a club looking to bounce back in 2027.

Scouting Players From Asia: 2026-2027 Offseason Update | FanGraphs
The Orioles have not been too active in this market under Mike Elias’ guidance. But they did sign Tomoyuki Sugano a couple of years ago, and had Shintaro Fujinami for a bit, so it can be helpful to get familiar with these names.

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

• Roansy Contreras turns 27 today. He pitched in one game for the Orioles in 2025.
• Dariel Álvarez is 38 years old. The outfielder played in 14 games for the O’s between 2015 and ‘16.
• Kris Benson is 52 today. He spent one season with the Orioles in 2006, tossing 183 innings and accumulating a 4.82 ERA.
• The late Bob Hale (b. 1933, d. 2012) was born on this day. From 1955 through ‘59, he was a bench bat for the O’s.

This day in O’s history

1989 – Gregg Olson becomes the first relief pitcher to win AL Rookie of the Year. He finishes ahead of Tom Gordon and Ken Griffey Jr. in the voting.

2023 – Mike Elias is named major league Executive of the Year after the Orioles finish the season with the best record in the American League.