Category: MLB

It’s time to look back at Chicago Cubs player performances over the 2026 season. For the purposes of this exercise, the regular season is all I’m going to consider. I don’t think the clear underperformance of two postseason games moves the needle on any of these players.

A reminder that these grades are 100 percent mine and 100 percent subjective. You might — and probably will! — have different opinions on some of them. I’m splitting this into two articles because, well, I found myself writing way, way too many words about the hitters to put everything in just one. The pitcher article will run tomorrow.

Overall, this Cubs team produced much hitting that had been unmatched in franchise history. Their 850 runs scored are the second-most for any Cubs team in the Modern Era since 1930 (855 in 2008). They set a franchise record with 674 walks, breaking the old mark of 656 set in 2016. Their 220 home runs ranked third in MLB (Astros, 226 and Yankees, 223). They walked off the opposition 13 times, tied for second-most in franchise history.

The year didn’t end the way any of us wanted. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a great season.

Here’s a breakdown of the significant Cubs hitters of the season just concluded.

Carson Kelly: B

Kelly’s .258/.336/.376 season with 10 home runs and 1.9 bWAR was not quite as good as his 2025 year, but I think it was absolutely fine for who he is. Kelly started 94 games behind the plate and threw out 24.1 percent of runners trying to steal, close to league average. He was also one of the top catchers (68.8 percent) in getting ABS calls correct.

I would like to see the Cubs bring Kelly back in 2027. There’s a mutual option which will certainly be declined, but I think the team and player could come to some sort of agreement, maybe with a vesting option.

Miguel Amaya: B

Amaya started 63 games as Cubs catcher this year (that’s 157 between Kelly and Amaya; the other five went to Moisés Ballesteros). Amaya threw out 28.9 percent of runners and hit well enough (.237/.340/.377 with six home runs in 215 at-bats). Pitchers like throwing to Amaya and Kelly and they make a good tandem.

Some will say that Owen Ayers should be given the backup role behind Amaya next year and Kelly should be let go. This would be a bad idea. Ayers has not caught a single MLB game and he’s caught only 33 games at the Triple-A level. He needs more experience.

Michael Busch: C

Busch’s power took a significant drop this year, from 34 home runs to 20 and from a .523 SLG to .393. That’s not good enough for a guy who occupies a middle of the lineup spot.

He did increase his walk total from 56 to 92, which ranked tied for 11th in MLB. But with his BA down from .261 to .242, that resulted in just a nine-point increase in OBP (.343 to .352).

This MLB.com article from July explains some of the changes in his approach:

Busch’s 14.2% walk rate is a 4.7% increase compared to 2025, the 10th-largest improvement among hitters with at least 2.1 plate appearances per team game in both seasons. That includes a significant 6.4% increase in walk rate against southpaws, and it puts him in the 94th percentile among all MLB hitters.

“I don’t think there’s one reason. I’m not going into the box necessarily trying to walk, just trying to get a good pitch to hit,” Busch said before Saturday’s win in Pittsburgh. “That’s basically my approach. I’m always happy with a walk, but there are some things that go into it, except just trying to walk. A lot of it is just having some experience now. I’ve been in the league a few years and I think I have a better idea of what pitchers are trying to do with me.”

That’s good, but… his bWAR dropped from 4.5 to 1.6, and the power outage likely has a lot to do with that.

Nico Hoerner: C+

Hoerner came out of the gate looking like an MVP candidate. Through the end of April: .291/.370/.449 with four home runs in 31 games.

That last game of April is when this happened [VIDEO].

Nico didn’t even leave the game and no concussion was diagnosed. He did leave the Cubs’ next game with what was termed “neck tighness,” which you can see here [VIDEO].

Again, he didn’t miss any time after that, but I can’t help wondering if this was something that nagged at him the rest of the season. He missed the next game, then returned and after that batted just .254/.301 /.322 with four home runs in 500 at-bats.

If it really was something bothering Nico all year, I hope the front office is willing to be upfront with us about it.

Dansby Swanson: C

Swanson had a very weird season.

First 14 games: 57 PA, .149/.281/.234, 17 strikeouts
Next 17 games: 69 PA, .273/.391/.600. five home runs
Next 39 games: 142 PA, .142/.227/.205, one home run, 38 strikeouts
Next 13 games: 56 PA, .365/.393/.981, nine home runs, 29 (!) RBI
Next 24 games: 90 PA, .209/.244/.267, no home runs, 21 strikeouts
Next 12 games: 44 PA, .278/.409/.528, two home runs, 10 runs scored

The end of that last 12-game sequence is when Dansby suffered the oblique injury that kept him out a month. When he returned he batted .160/.250/.280 with nine strikeouts in seven games and 28 PA.

I recognize this is cherry-picking of a sort, but seriously, when have you seen a player have dramatic hot streaks like that followed by sequences that would bench or send to Triple-A less experienced players?

Swanson still played solid defense, though likely not enough for another Gold Glove. His bWAR dropped from 4.5 to 3.2, but he has still averaged 4.2 bWAR for his four Cubs seasons. No complaints here. Just hope he’s healthy in 2027.

Alex Bregman: A-

This grade would have been a solid “A” if not for Bregman’s horrific start as a Cub, which had him batting .235/.333/.338 with just seven home runs in his first 92 games in blue pinstripes. That takes us to two games before the All-Star break. In those two games Bregman went 4-for-9 and homered twice and you could almost see the lights go on.

Including those two, Bregman batted .308/.388/.648 over his last 63 games (281 PA) with 19 doubles, 21 home runs, 50 runs and 58 RBI. That’s an MVP pace if you do it for an entire season. Bregman finished with 5.8 bWAR, third-best of his career and best since 2019, and his leadership qualities have been lauded by everyone in the organization. It was absolutely, positively worth signing him.

I cannot help wondering if not for that freak injury to him Sept. 20 in Cincinnati, whether the Cubs might have won two more games over the last week of the regular season and hosted the Padres in the Wild Card Series, rather than go to San Diego. Maybe that wouldn’t have mattered, maybe it would, but I do think Bregman’s absence really hurt the team that week.

Here’s one of my favorite Bregman moments, his game-tying two-out, two-strike, two-run homer in the ninth Aug. 6 against the Blue Jays [VIDEO].

Ian Happ: C+

Happ’s numbers weren’t that far off from his previous seasons, though his batting average was quite a bit lower. His power numbers (24 HR, 28 doubles, three triples) were consistent with previous years, his walk total (81) was right on target, and he continued to play a fine left field and likely wins another Gold Glove. That would give him five. Only two Cubs have ever won five or more Gold Gloves: Ron Santo (5) and Ryne Sandberg (9).

It strikes me that a lot of the dislike for Happ that I see on this site stems from the low BA. That’s only one small part of the whole package. He’s been a consistently good player for the Cubs for nearly a decade. If the Cubs make him a qualifying offer, given his middling season, he just might accept it. I think the Cubs would welcome him back for one more year.

Happ’s 197 career home runs rank 11th on the all-time Cubs list, one behind Hank Sauer. If Happ did return for 2027 and hit around 20-25 home runs, his career norm, he’d move up to ninth on that list.

Pete Crow-Armstrong: A++++++++++++++

I could put a few more pluses in there and I don’t think anyone would disagree. Not only will he win the National League MVP award (hopefully unanimously, and remember voting for that had to be completed before the postseason), PCA’s 2026 season was one of the greatest in Cubs franchise history. By bWAR (9.8) he tied Ron Santo’s 1967 season for fourth-best, behind only Ernie Banks (10.2 in 1959), Sammy Sosa (10.3 in 2001) and Rogers Hornsby (10.6 in 1929). Banks and Hornsby were MVP and Sosa finished second to Barry Bonds.

By fWAR it’s second-best, 10.6 to Hornsby’s 11.0.

We were blessed to watch PCA get to the 40/40 club, becoming just the seventh MLB player ever to do that, to hit more home runs (45) than any Cub in 21 years (Derrek Lee, 46 in 2005) and to play fantastic defense every single day.

Don’t ever forget the things you saw this young man do. Even though the season didn’t end the way we wanted, what he did is worth celebrating forever.

I could just post PCA videos for the rest of this article and you’d probably be happy, but I wanted to narrow things down to just one. This one, I think, sums up the disruptive force he can be on the basepaths. It’s the Aug. 6 game against the Blue Jays that was tied up by the aforementioned Bregman home run in the ninth. Neither team scored in the 10th, and PCA led off the 11th with a single that got placed runner Carson Kelly thrown out at the plate. Pete took second on the throw and the Jays intentionally walked Seiya Suzuki to bring up Busch to face former Cub lefty Brendon Little.

Then PCA single-handedly won the game [VIDEO].

Now think about that play. PCA took off on Little’s first pitch. Brandon Valenzuela thus rushed his throw and the ball got away and Pete didn’t even hesitate. You can see Quintin Berry waving him, but that was after PCA was already up and running to the plate. People used to say that Javier Báez’s baseball instincts were off the charts. I think PCA’s are, too.

And he is only 24 years old. Comparisons to what Ernie Banks and Willie Mays did at that age are not unwarranted, in my opinion.

And the Cubs have him signed for six more years at a relatively team-friendly figure. The Báez-for-PCA trade is already one of the best in Cubs history. It could wind up being the best when all is said and done.

Seiya Suzuki: A

Suzuki missed the first 12 games of the season due to a knee injury suffered in the World Baseball Classic. (And doesn’t it seem like the WBC was more than just a few months ago?)

He started out slowly, batting just .229/.372/.257 with 11 strikeouts over his first 10 games.

Then he got scorching hot, batting .351/.441/.754 with seven home runs in his next 15 games.

Over the rest of the year, his performance was quite consistent and he wound up with career highs in walks (81) and runs (96) while batting .270/.368/.473 and posting a career high 5.1 bWAR. Over the five years of the contract he signed before the 2022 season, Suzuki has hit .269/.351/.472 with 113 home runs in 675 games and a career total of 16.2 bWAR, or nearly 4 bWAR per season.

This year, too, his defense improved significantly both by metrics and by the eye test and I would not be surprised if he’s a Gold Glove “finalist” (they’re not really “finalists,” they’re just the three top vote-getters) or even wins the award.

The Cubs should make it a top priority to offer Suzuki a contract extension, maybe four years plus a vesting option for a fifth. He’s been a very valuable member of this team and I’d love to see him return.

Michael Conforto: B+

I was not in favor of this signing when it was announced around the beginning of Spring Training. Conforto had a poor year in 2025 with the Dodgers and I thought Dylan Carlson would be a better player.

Shows you what I know. Carlson played in just three games for the Cubs, going 0-for-4 before being released. He signed with the Phillies, played poorly in 40 Triple-A games for them before being let go and wasn’t picked up by anyone. So clearly, I was totally wrong in my analysis of these two players.

Conforto, meanwhile, slid in to a backup outfield/DH role with grace and production. He started off slowly, but by the end of April was batting .300/.421/.433 in 17 games and 38 PA.

Then came the game of May 4, Conforto’s first appearance in May, he’d sat on the bench for the first three games of the month. The Cubs trailed the Reds 4-3 going to the bottom of the ninth. PCA led off with a triple and one out later, scored on a sacrifice fly.

Conforto was sent up to bat for Matt Shaw. He ran the count full. And then… [VIDEO].

Well now. That’s a way to make a fanbase love you! As noted on the clip, that was his first career walk-off homer.

Conforto batted .240/.331/.469 with 15 home runs in 271 at-bats and played a decent right field when he was asked to do that. He was paid just $2 million for those 15 long balls, which were just two fewer than Kyle Tucker had for the Dodgers… and Tucker was paid, um, a lot more. Conforto and Tucker both finished with 0.7 bWAR. Conforto turns 34 in March. I would absolutely, positively bring him back for another year, if he’s willing.

Lastly, if you did not know this about Conforto, he comes from an athletic family. His mom is Tracie Ruiz-Conforto, who was a gold medalist in synchronized swimming in the 1984 Olympic Games in Los Angeles. Conforto’s dad, also named Michael, played college football at Penn State.

Tyrone Taylor: A-

Taylor is exactly what the Cubs needed, a solid defensive backup outfielder who can play all three positions well. And he absolutely crushes left-handed pitching, or at least he did in 2026: .318/.348/.573 with six home runs in 110 at-bats. (Career-wise, his .744 OPS is a bit better than .710 vs. RHP, but not as significant a difference as this year.)

Taylor played five seasons for Craig Counsell in Milwaukee, so the Cubs manager knew exactly what he was getting when Taylor was included in the Clay Holmes deal.

He is a free agent and turns 33 in January, but I would love to see him back as a fourth outfielder in 2027.

Matt Shaw: C+

I cannot figure out Matt Shaw. He showed promise in the field and at the plate last year, but seemed to regress in 2026. Some of that was due to multiple injuries that limited him to 77 games this year. His OPS rose from .690 to .737 but his bWAR dropped from 3.0 to 0.7, likely because he was shuttled all around the field this year, rather than mostly play third base as he did in 2025.

He’s not really a right fielder and if the Cubs re-sign Suzuki he might not have a position, though I suppose he could play left. The team might be best served by putting together a package including Shaw and trading him for quality starting pitching.

Pedro Ramírez: B+

Ramírez was only supposed to be in the major leagues briefly. He was called up when Shaw went on the injured list in late May with back issues.

But Ramírez, who impressed me with his defense in Spring Training, hit well enough to stick around and became very useful when Swanson went down with his oblique issue. Overall in 80 games and 266 plate appearances, Ramírez batted .261/.321/.402 with 12 doubles, two triples, six home runs and nine stolen bases. That’s really good for any rookie, but especially one who had just turned 22 in April and who had played only 43 games at Triple-A before his callup.

And that might not even be the most impressive thing about Ramírez. It might be his maturity and work ethic, as detailed in this August article by Sahadev Sharma in The Athletic:

Manager Craig Counsell, not one to easily dish out praise, made sure to commend Ramírez for the way he carried himself. Veterans noticed it as well.

“I feel really happy that they have that idea, that they think those things about me,” Ramírez said. “I’ve always thought to myself, wherever I go, I’ll always try to show that. It instills a lot of confidence in me that they think about me that way. I’m very thankful for the opportunity.”

This is exactly the sort of thing that makes for a good major league player — hard work and confidence, in addition to natural talent. The emergence of Ramírez is another reason that Shaw could be traded for pitching. The Sharma article also notes:

With Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki heading into free agency this winter, the Cubs are getting comfortable with the idea of giving Ramírez an everyday role in a corner outfield spot.

“I don’t know what the plans are for that position,” Ramírez said. “What I do know is I feel like I can take on whatever role is needed. Whatever it is they need, I can help and I’ll do my absolute best.”

As noted, I’d like to see Suzuki back long-term and Happ could accept a QO. But if not and there’s an opening in the outfield? Why not try Ramírez? The Cubs could have found the proverbial “diamond in the rough.”

Gabriel Arias: Incomplete

Arias could be a really useful player off the bench, but we just don’t know for sure. He played in only seven games for the Cubs, going 3-for-8 with a walk and three RBI.

For the Guardians last year, he was more or less their regular shortstop, starting 102 games there (and also 19 at second base), but he batted just .220/.274/.363 with 162 strikeouts in 471 PA, yikes.

But he won’t turn 27 until February and is a good defender. He’s under team control for three more years.

Kevin Alcántara, Justin Dean, Scott Kingery, Nicky Lopez, B.J. Murray Jr., Owen Miller and James Triantos also played in at least one game for the Cubs this year.

Tomorrow: Pitchers

Good morning A’s fans! Happy Friday!

Now that the calendar has turned to October, spooky season is not the only thing anticipated this month. The MLB playoffs are ratcheting up, with the final game of the Wild Card round taking place yesterday.

The New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres all dispatched their opponents in two games. Those three teams will move on to play the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers, respectively. The fourth matchup, featuring National League East winner Atlanta Braves against their division rival Philadelphia Phillies, was the only series that took three games to determine a winner. The Braves prevailed, moving on to challenge the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

If the Green and Gold want to return to the playoffs in 2027—assuming there is a season—they will need to make some roster and coaching changes over the next few months.

While A’s manager Mark Kotsay remains employed, pitching coach Scott Emerson, assistant hitting coach Chris Cron and quality control coach Marcus Jensen have all been dismissed from their duties. Perhaps with Cron out of the picture, A’s hitters will tone down their hack-at-every-pitch approach.

Before the A’s can make any free-agency maneuverings, however, they must first address several players with contract options.

Right-hander Luis Severino, who missed the majority of 2026 with a shoulder injury, has five days after the end of the World Series to exercise or decline his $22 million player option. Meanwhile, veteran left-hander Jeffrey Springs and second baseman Jeff McNeil have $15 million club options. The Athletics will surely pay the $750,000 buyout to make Springs a free agent, while the New York Mets are responsible for McNeil’s $2 million buyout. The infielder will likely join Springs on the open market, where the A’s can re-sign him for less or let him join another team.

Once those decisions are made, the A’s will look to be aggressive in addressing their roster deficiencies. It will be interesting to see how the free-agent and trade markets unfold this offseason, particularly with the looming threat of a lockout beginning Dec. 1.

Do you think free agents will be quicker to sign than in years past, or will there be a lull in activity? And what are your predictions for the Division Series?

A’s Coverage:

• A’s part ways with assistant hitting, quality control coaches
• After an outfield collision left him paralyzed, every gain in rehab is a big win for A’s Ryan Lasko
• Athletics’ Zack Gelof sues Tigers after hitting metal fence
• A’s Las Vegas ballpark cost rises to $2.1B, public funding delayed
• 2026: Year Of The “Didn’t See That Coming!”
• A’s Hoping Luis Severino Chooses to Stay
• Where the A’s Plan to Use Zack Gelof in 2027
• A’S OPEN TO MOVING LUIS MEDIA BACK INTO ROTATION 
• Last MLB game in West Sacramento? Why A’s 2026 season deserves a eulogy
• A’s Lose Final Game Of The Year To Astros 9-0
• Perkins finishes intriguing season with another flash of potential
• A’s Bounce Back, Take Second Game From Astros 6-5
• ‘Road Trip Mike’ on the move to wherever his beloved A’s go
• Wheat/Chaff Updates As Season Winds Down
• Paralyzed A’s prospect Lasko released from rehab facility to ovation from staff
• Devin Taylor: Athletics 2026 Minor League Player Of The Year
• Henry Bolte Is the A’s Next Budding Star
• Determining Athletics’ Offensive MVP for the 2026 Season
• Notes From Star-Studded Rockies-A’s Instructional League
• Injuries Out Of Control, But Why?
• 2027 Infield Landscape Ever Changing
• “Fast Movers” Might Be Key To Contention
• Billy Beane comments on the job Mark Kotsay has done this season.
• Should Mark Kotsay return in 2027? A’s Players Weigh In
• What the A’s Hiring Mike Rizzo would Signal and the Questions it Would Raise
• Athletics Considering James Click For GM Vacancy
• Get the best of Athletics Nation on the new SB Nation app

MLB News & Interest:

• Braves finish off Phils to set up date with Dodgers
• Source: Diamondbacks to retain Torey Lovullo as manager
• What’s it like to face Miz? We asked those who have
• Best 2026 World Series matchups for every type of MLB fan
• White Sox sweep Astros once more to claim 1st playoff series win since 2005 WS
• Guardians to start with Parker Messick, Gavin Williams in ALDS
• ’Never a doubt’: Resilient Phils force Game 3 on three dramatic swings
• Yanks sweep rival Sox behind another offensive onslaught to punch ticket to ALDS
• Red Sox’s Roman Anthony ruled out of ALWC with injuries
• Padres make quick work of Cubs to sweep Wild Card Series
• Padres’ Ethan Salas becomes youngest ever to catch playoff game
• With 28th postseason HR, Altuve now 1 shy of all-time record
• With 2 steals each (in 1 inning!) Acuña bros. make postseason history
• D-Backs, Michael Soroka Have Mutual Interest In Reunion
• Daulton Varsho Undergoes Wrist Surgery
• MLB attendance up for 4th straight year, boosted by Rays
• Previewing The Upcoming Center Field Class
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Initial A’s offseason roster transactions:

Do you agree with this guy’s selections? His team comprises the Athletics’ top prospects, underrated names to know and a couple of young Latin players getting their feet wet in rookie ball.

Congrats! 96-year-old Monte Moore has a chance to become the latest individual to represent the Athletics in Cooperstown.

As the Detroit Tigers begin the 2026-2027 offseason, there are quite a lot of roster spots that are obviously locked up. Among the rookies there are many more question marks, but clearly Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark are in the lineup on Opening Day. For rookies like Ben Malgeri, Brett Callahan, and John Peck, things are much more of a wide open question and will depend on how they perform in spring camp and what the Tigers do in the offseason. Two more rookies came into the final month of the season in somewhat uncertain territory, but the closing arguments made by Hao-Yu Lee and Eduardo Valencia all but assured their spots next spring.

The 23-year-old Lee, the Taiwanese Tiger (bear with us, we’re workshopping), was called up very early in the season in mid-April due to injuries. His six-week stint did not go well. He was fine for the first two weeks, and then crumbled to pieces in May, posting a 16 wRC+ for the month. Now that Lee’s fiery, hypercompetitive personality is better known to fans, you can imagine how he took those struggles when he went back to Triple-A for the first two weeks of June. He was not pleased. Fortunately, he took the lessons to heart, and was better prepared mentally when he was recalled on June 13.

He returned with a vengeance. posting a 151 wRC+ (51 percent better than league average) at the plate for the rest of June. He went on to hit .283 with eight homers and 27 total extra base hits and a 123 wRC+ over 277 plate appearances the rest of the way. He put up a 132 wRC+ in July, and then declined a bit down to 118 in August and 113 in September. He was on the good side of lady luck in June and early July, but even so he held up really nicely over the final two months of the season, showing signs of settling in to sustainably above average production including a average exit velocity of 91.1 mph off the bat in the second half. He also put up some really gritty at-bats under pressure, which was particularly good to see from a young player.

Overall, Lee’s numbers look reasonably sustainable too. He struck out 23.9 percent of the time and walked 8.2 percent of the time. Those are roughly average marks, backed up by his chase rates, though he did whiff a bit more than we’d prefer. Of course, that includes his early six-week stint where he was a bit overwhelmed. He’s still a young player getting better and he showed it from June through the end of the season.

His .325 wOBA was a little better than Statcast’s xwOBA of .302 for him. Expected wOBA is based on his contact quality as well as his plate discipline metrics. If we isolate June 1 through the end of the season, Lee had a .352 wOBA and a .310 xwOBA. So there are signs there to expect some modest regression, but at the same time, for a 23-year-old rookie that’s pretty good because he should be able to settle in and trim a few strikeouts out of the profile going forward. There are no guarantees, but it feels pretty easy to bet on Lee working his tail off and getting better.

Defensively there are a lot bigger question marks. He was below average at both second and third base, with some of that weakness coming from errors, not more subtle distinctions like range. Having watched a lot of Hao-Yu Lee during his time in the Tigers farm system, this was all somewhat surprising. He’s certainly not a plus defender, but the kind of mistakes he made this season, where he just dropped or otherwise misplayed quite a few balls, wasn’t so common in his minor league work. He’s certainly not the softest handed guy around, but I do think he’ll grade out closer to average at both positions with more time and experience.

The Tigers have themselves a player here. Maybe not one who starts 155 games next season, but a lot more than just a platoon bat. Lee has a history of beating up on lefties and struggling with right-handed pitching, but he balanced things out well this year, hitting right-handers a little better actually. That probably won’t last, because it rarely does, but Lee can handle himself no matter who is on the found. To become a really dangerous hitter, he will need to pull more balls in the air, but he’s already showing average power and may well get better. Barring some kind of disastrous spring camp, and that may not even matter if spring camp starts late and is shortened anyway, limiting the abilty to evaluate players, Lee is going to be on the Opening Day roster and may be the Tigers starting third baseman much of the time, depending on whether Max Anderson is ready to play some second base for them or not, and whether John Peck looks a little more hitterish and gets regular work at shortstop.

As for Eduardo Valencia, the man was absolutely on fire in August and September. The 26-year-old catcher posted a whopping 182 wRC+ in 42 games. He hit .341 with eight homers in a quarter of the season. The issue is that he was also incredibly lucky on balls in play and showed off a pretty lousy approach at the plate. Still, pitchers make mistakes, and Valencia hit just about every one they made with authority.

Valencia walked just 4.3 percent of the time, and his chase rate (O-swing %) was a whopping 35.3 percent. And yet his strikeout rate was a pretty reasonable 23.2 percent, just a little worse than league average. He’s a decent bad ball hitter and shows some knack for fouling off pitchers pitches to stay in counts, but his swing discipline is going to have to improve. As long as they can get him chasing this much, pitchers will figure out how to exploit him. It will be difficult to sustain even average production over the long term, despite his quality power production. Valencia’s chase rates in the minor leagues were quite a bit better than this, and again we’re only talking about 42 games worth of major league work, so hopefully he can cut into that number and be more selective as he gains experience against major league pitching.

As a bat first catcher, there is going to be a lot of pressure on him to improve his process at the plate. However, there are some positive signs defensively that say he’ll be able to hold up as a part-time catcher, handling something like 40-50 games behind the plate in relief of Dillon Dingler, and spending the rest of his time DH-ing. Valencia has played a little bit of first base, but it was pretty ugly there and he’d need a lot of reps to develop at the position. There just isn’t really an opportunity to make that happen, and meanwhile the Tigers have 3-4 other players who should probably be playing first base above any other position.

Valencia graded out as a +1 in blocks above average per Statcast. He was a +2 in framing runs above average. His numbers when I checked in early September were a bit below average, but with more work with the major league coaching staff and in particular, catching coach Ryan Sienko, Valencia showed some improvement. Former Tigers Triple-A manager Gabe Alvarez noted at the end of the 2025 season that while Valencia was below average in those metrics, he was working hard to improve. A year later, he appears to have been correct.

The real weakness is still controlling the running game. His 1.95 seconds average pop time is a little below average, though we’re talking about some pretty fine margins. That’s workable, but Valencia’s 81.6 mph average throw is pretty poor arm strength for a major league catcher. Can he improve on that in the offseason? Well, they teach pitchers how to throw harder, but at age 26 already I don’t really love his chances. Most likely he’s developed into a solid catcher behind the plate who is going to struggle to control the running game. As long as he hits, that’s not the worst flaw to deal with on a part-time basis.

The Tigers have some interesting young catchers, mainly Thayron Liranzo and perhaps the suddenly surging Luke Shliger, who may be ready to contribute later in the 2027 season. Josue Briceño is still more in Valencia territory, where the skills behind the plate are a bit on the light side, and the bat is the far more important part of the equation. I don’t really foresee any of these guys forcing their way onto the roster immediately next spring, certainly not behind the plate. But there is help coming eventually, and if the Tigers have Valencia as their primary backup for one season they’ll probably be alright. The offensive contributions are probably going to outweigh the option of having a better defensive catcher who doesn’t hit much, a la Jake Rogers.

The Tigers have an interesting crop of rookies coming next season. They should have support for the lineup as the season progresses from guys like Max Anderson, Briceño, and Zyhir Hope. Those players, along with this season’s first year players like Peck, Callahan, and Ben Malgeri, will still have to win a job in spring training. Hao-Yu Lee and Eduardo Valencia separated themselves into a bit of a different category with their strong performance over the final six weeks of the season. The duo should have an Opening Day roster spot locked up next spring barring something we can’t foresee, like an injury.

Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark took over the team in 2026, but they weren’t the only ones to impress. Hopefully Lee and Valencia, now knowing what to expect, can refine their games a little further this offseason and remain consistent contributors in 2027 and beyond.

The San Diego Padres rode their momentum from a strong finish in the regular season to a two-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the National League Wild Card Series at Petco Park. The two teams met a season ago and engaged in a three-game series that saw the Padres score just five runs. San Diego changed that this season and scored 12 runs in two games, which included home runs from Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Gavin Sheets.

Even more impressive than the Padres offense was their pitching. Michael King set the tone in Game 1 of the series and pitched seven innings of shutout baseball with one hit allowed. That hit was an infield hit in the top of the seventh inning that Machado kept from getting to the outfield grass, but he lost the ball on the transfer from his glove to his throwing hand and was unable to make a throw to first base to keep a no-hitter intact. Nick Pivetta followed with a start in Game 2 that got him into the fourth inning, but then the game was turned over to the San Diego bullpen. The function of the team that was the most lauded throughout the season showed once again it was worthy of praise with big arms Bradgley Rodriguez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller delivering a win.

The Padres head to Milwaukee to take on the top seeded Brewers and Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski. If San Diego can get similar performances from their offense and in particular their stars, and get solid contributions from the likes of Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler the Padres could have a chance to punch their ticket to the National League Championship Series.

Padres News:

• Gavin Sheets announced his presence in the postseason with a two-run blast to right field that helped the Padres get a 4-1 win to complete the sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the National League Wild Card Series.

• After a dominant showing in the NLWCS, Dennis Lin of The Athletic asks if this could be the team to get the Padres back to the World Series.

Baseball News:

• The Atlanta Braves eliminated the Philadelphia Phillies with a Game 3 win.

Good morning, LSB.

Evan Grant plays the blame game and discusses how much Ray Davis deserves for the Rangers’ failed season.

AJ Pierzynski is the latest guest on Grant’s podcast.

And MLB Pipeline names a sleeper prospect for each club’s Arizona Fall League team.

And that’s about all there is this morning. Welcome to the offseason.

Coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons -- with disappointing being an understatement when describing what the 2026 campaign was -- the Mets enter this offseason looking to get back on track.

The initial goal, which has been the same since Steve Cohentook over as owner, is to get back to the playoffs. The ultimate goal is to become a team that is in the postseason perennially. 

With that in mind, the expectation is that David Stearns and the front office will be selectively aggressive this winter via free agency while attempting to fix the trouble spots that helped do the Mets in the last two years. 

The trade market could also be fertile ground for New York, with their farm system recently fortified following their trade deadline sell-off. 

As the offseason takes shape, it will be colored by New York's existing payroll commitments for 2027 and how the books are shaping up in the years to come.

It could also be influenced by the looming lockout that is set to begin on Dec. 1, and the potential that the new CBA could usher in harsher penalties for teams that exceed the luxury tax thresholds. 

Here's how the payroll looks for next season and beyond...

SALARY COMMITTED FOR 2027

The Mets enter the offseason with roughly $255 million committed for 2027, via Cot's Contracts, which is a number that includes the $18.5 million estimated for player benefits, the money owed to zero-to-three players in both the majors and minors who are under team control, and the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players.

The above figure will go up with arbitration raises owed to 10 players, including Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez, and Dedniel Núñez. But a handful of the arbitration-eligible group could possibly be non-tendered or traded, which would lower the total amount owed.

Of note: The $255 million total before arbitration raises includes the $42 million salary that will be owed to Bo Bichette if he opts in to the second year of his three-year contract. 

For reference, the Mets ended the 2026 season with a 40-man CBT payroll of $359.48 million.

Now off the books is the $17 million owed to Frankie Montas, whose two-year deal is up. 

Additionally, because the Mets traded or waived their notable pending free agents (Brooks Raley, David Peterson, A.J. Minter, Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, and Luis Robert Jr.), the only possible pending free agent on the active roster (aside from Montas) is Bichette.

The Mets are now clear of the contracts for Raley ($2 million), Peralta ($8 million), Peterson ($8.1 million), Minter ($11 million), Holmes ($12.6 million), and Robert ($20 million) that were on their books at the beginning of the season. 

WHAT WILL THE ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS MAKE?

The Mets have 10 arbitration-eligible players.

Those players (with their 2026 Mets salary in parentheses) are:

Tylor Megill ($2.5 million)
Francisco Alvarez ($2.4 million)
Reed Garrett ($1.3 million)
Mark Vientos ($813,750)
Brett Baty ($811,500)
Dedniel Núñez ($792,000)
Austin Warren ($724,128)
Cionel Perez ($504,706)
Cristian Pache ($235,294)
Christopher Morel ($175,187)

Even if the Mets tender contracts to all of the above players, their payroll would not go up dramatically -- perhaps the total arbitration figure would be around $18 million.

However, it's difficult to see them tendering contracts to Morel or Pache, and the writing seems to be on the wall when it comes to Vientos having perhaps played his last game for New York. So for the purposes of this exercise, let's put the arbitration number at $14 million.

After taking the arbitration money into account, the total New York could be on the hook for before making external additions is approximately $269 million.

HOW MUCH MONEY IS THERE TO ADD PLAYERS THIS OFFSEASON?

The Mets, after arbitration raises, would likely be above the first luxury tax threshold for the 2027 season. However, because the CBA is set to expire, the first, second, third, and fourth thresholds for 2027 and beyond (and whether those exact kind of structures will still be in play) have not yet been determined. 

For the 2026 season, the four thresholds were $244 million, $264 million, $284 million, and $304 million -- figures that had been increasing incrementally (around $3 million to $4 million for each threshold) on an annual basis.  

New York has exceeded the luxury tax five seasons in a row and (barring something very unexpected) will be doing it for a sixth straight time in 2027.

But again, the tiers and penalties for exceeding them will not be known until a new CBA is agreed to, which throws a good deal of uncertainty into the offseason for every team that is ordinarily a significant spender. 

Also of importance is that the Mets are set to get serious salary relief following the 2027 season, when the contracts for Sean Manaea, Jorge Polanco, and Kodai Senga end, which will free up roughly $60 million. So in theory, big spending this offseason could be offset a bit in a year when Manaea, Polanco, and Senga are off the books.

As far as this offseason, the free agent market is expected to include Tarik Skubal, Clay Holmes, Michael King, Seiya Suzuki,Adrian Morejon, and Japanese slugger Teruaki Sato, while the trade market could feature some intriguing starting pitching options (such as a few Mariners, given their relative glut of rotation options).

WHAT ABOUT EXTENSIONS FOR UNDER-CONTROL PLAYERS?

The Mets are in a unique position when it comes to locking up players before they reach free agency.

Because of the resources at their disposal, they can simply sign those players back once they reach free agency if they so choose. That kind of ability stands in contrast to smaller market teams like the Royals and Brewers, who have recently signed some of their core players to long-term extensions well before they were set to reach free agency -- Kansas City signed Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year extension after his second season, while Milwaukee inked Jackson Chourio to an eight-year contract before he even made his big league debut. 

Even for the Mets, though, it could make sense to do these early extensions every now and then. That's because there is a benefit for both sides. 

The player gets financial certainty years earlier than he otherwise would, with pre-arbitration seasons, arbitration seasons, and/or pending free agent seasons bought out and those years included in the extension. The team, if the deal works out as hoped, winds up paying less for those later arbitration years and the free agent years, and also gets certainty. 

If the Mets were to explore that kind of deal this offseason, the two most obvious players to approach would be Carson Benge and Nolan McLean.

Benge is coming off an eye-opening debut season that saw him make a serious impact on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, Benge slashed .282/.346/.430 (.776 OPS, 118 OPS+) with 20 homers, 22 doubles, three homers, 86 runs scored, and 22 steals -- becoming the first Mets rookie ever to hit at least 20 homers and steal at least 20 bases.

Defensively, Benge was a difference-maker in right field, with his arm value in the 100th percentile, his arm strength in the 99th, and his range (OAA) in the 70th. 

McLean had a tremendous first full season, posting a 3.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 179.2 innings while allowing just 140 hits and fanning 194 batters.

Benge and McLean are both years away from arbitration. 

THE PAYROLL SITUATION IN 2028 AND BEYOND

Here are the Mets' projected 40-man roster salary obligations from 2028 to 2030, via Cot's:

2028: $192.5 million
2029: $106.2 million
2030: $106.7 million

As is noted above, the money coming off the books following the 2027 season will provide substantial salary relief.

Beyond that, the Mets are in strong shape in both 2029 and 2030, due in large part to the deals to Bichette and Marcus Semien ending after 2028.

The Yankees are going the expected route, starting Gerrit Cole in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Rays on Saturday night in Tampa Bay.

Following dominant starts by Cam Schlittler and Max Fried in New York's Wild Card Series sweep of the Red Sox, Cole will look to keep things rolling for New York.

Cole last pitched on Sept. 23 against the Rays in the Bronx, when he allowed two runs on three hits while walking three and striking out eight in 5.2 innings.

The right-hander also fared well in his two other starts against Tampa this season.

On May 22, in what was his first start back after recovering from Tommy John surgery, Cole tossed 6.0 scoreless innings while allowing two hits, walking three, and striking out two.

On July 8, Cole allowed three runs in 6.1 innings while giving up three hits, walking one, and striking out six.

With Game 2 set for Monday in Tampa, the Yankees figure to turn to Cam Schlittler on five days of rest or Max Fried on regular (four days) rest.

This past season saw the end of Dean Kremer’s time in Baltimore, as the longest surviving member of the Manny Machado trade ended his time with the Orioles with the same frustrating inconsistency that colored his entire career. 

When it came to Dean Kremer’s role on the Orioles pitching staff, I always had the mindset of “if Dean Kremer is your 5th starter, you probably have a pretty good rotation.” The Orioles rotation heading into the 2026 season was so good (on paper, at least) that Kremer began the year at Triple-A Norfolk. 

However, he returned from Norfolk after only two starts for the Tides. An early-season injury to Zach Efflin saw Kremer immediately return to the fifth starter role in Baltimore. The 30-year-old right-hander looked strong in his first two outings of the season; in his season debut he limited the Diamondbacks to 2 earned runs over 5 innings while striking out nine. His next time out, against the Guardians, Kremer was an unlucky loser after posting a line of 6 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB and 7 Ks. 

From there, Kremer’s remaining tenure with the Orioles was largely derailed due to injury, After his start in Cleveland, he landed on the IL with a right quad strain. At first it looked like the injury would only require a short term recovery. Instead, Kremer didn’t return to the mound until June 21st and didn’t make it back to the big league roster until July 1st. 

In his first start back from injury, Kremer once again looked his best self. He guided the Orioles to victory over the White Sox in Baltimore, tossing 6 innings of one-run ball while striking out four. Little did we know that that would be the last quality start of his Orioles career. 

His next four outings in black and orange were largely disastrous. Over those final four games with the O’s, Kremer averaged less than 5 innings per start, pitched to a 9.47 ERA and gave up a .333 average with 7 home runs across 19 innings. His final start for Baltimore came in Detroit, where he gave up 8 runs in 4 innings as the O’s lost 14-0 to the Tigers. 

Four days later, Kremer became the first of five major leaguers Mike Elias & Co. traded away at the 2026 Trade Deadline. The California native was sent from Baltimore to Minnesota, who at the time sat 1.5 games ahead of the Orioles for the final AL Wild Card spot. 

At the time, the decision to trade away Kremer was viewed through a neutral lens. The O’s got back 18-year-old OF Jhomnardo Reyes, an athletic, power-first bat in the mold of a typical Mike Elias outfield prospect. Reyes immediately jumped in Baltimore’s Top 20 prospects. The decision to trade Kremer—in the moment—could also have been seen as the Orioles creating space in their rotation to acquire a level-raising starting pitcher. 

Instead, Kremer became another example of the front office selling whilst tantalizingly close to playoff contention. To make matters worse, his second start for the Twinkies came against Baltimore in Target Field. That afternoon, Kremer delivered his best start of the season, tossing 7 innings while only allowing 1 run and 1 hit and punching out seven Orioles. Whether motivated by a sense of revenge or just the excitement of facing his old teammates, Kremer immediately made the Orioles look foolish for trading him. 

The rest of his year in Minnesota was closer to what we’d come to expect during his 6+ seasons in Baltimore. In his final 8 starts of the season, Kremer pitched to a 4.04 ERA while allowing a .209 average against and striking out 39 in 42.1 IP. The right-hander did finish with a promising flourish, allowing only 2 runs and six hits over his final three starts. With one year left of team control before potentially entering free agency in 2028, Kremer should comfortably slot into the back half of Minnesota’s rotation next year. 

Kremer never had true highlight moments with the Orioles, and therefore will not be remembered as fondly as contemporaries like Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays or Anthony Santander. However, his 130 career starts are good enough for 33rd in Orioles history, while his 707.2 IP puts him just outside the Top 50 in club history. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Kremer’s 616 career strikeouts with the Orioles put him just behind Ben McDonald at 22nd in Orioles’ history. 

If you can separate it from the optics of selling at the deadline when only a couple of games out of a playoff spot, the decision to move on from Kremer spoke/speaks to the improved health of the Orioles pitching depth. His 4.37 career ERA in Baltimore makes him the latest in the line of starting pitchers like Jeremy Guthrie and Daniel Cabrera; professional innings eaters who every once and a while showed the ability to be something more. 

Have at it. Here’s mine.

Michael Harris II, swinging 2-0, at not even a strike or borderline pitch, and absolutely creaming it for a three-run homer. It upended narratives, even narratives that some attempted to apply postgame. Aaron Nola noted the Braves didn’t chase. Well, not exactly: they didn’t chase sometimes, and Harris did chase, and delivered what ended up serving as a knockout blow even though there were still eight innings to play.

Yes, Harris and Ozzie Albies will chase a lot. No, they don’t fit the mold of a hackneyed “professional hitter” who draws walks and shoots liners over the infield. But, like Albies said earlier this season, when you crush, it’s the best feeling in the world. And that’s what they did last night. But Harris did it swinging at a pitch that you might say he shouldn’t have even swung at, and that’s awesome.

I hope everyone remembers what led to this win going forward.

After fighting for a one-day respite, the Phillies went down relatively quietly in their winner take all Game 3 with the Braves. Aaron Nola was given the start and was tasked with at least giving the Phillies three solid innings, but he couldn’t even escape the first without giving up a back breaking three-run homer. The debate started to rage over whether Zack Wheeler should’ve started in his stead, but he too gave up a two-run bomb of his own pitching in relief to make the whole thing pointless. Really, the pitching was moot because once again, the Phillies offense could not get anything going, this time against an Atlanta bullpen game that featured three shutout innings from opener Ray Kerr.

This is going to be a long offseason where the Phillies will face numerous painful questions. First off, they have to find a permanent manager, whether that be Alex Cora or not. Then they have to find some way to inject life into the 30th ranked offense by OPS+. They have to find a way to build a bullpen that has more than two reliable arms in it. They will have to determine if their younger players such as Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford as well as prospects Aidan Miller and Gage Wood are in their long-term plans or not. Finally, they may have to come to terms with the hardest thing of all: the possibility that some of their stars are no longer the MVP caliber players they were in the past but rather All-Star type contributors at best.

And all of that isn’t even taking into account the impending lockout that threatens to wipe out most of the offseason and some or all of the 2027 regular season. There’s no telling exactly what state baseball will be in when the Phillies next take the field.

So, where do the Phillies go from here?

The Arizona Cardinals (1-2-0) have the opportunity to get back to even in the standings against the New York Football Giants, who are struggling at the quarterback position. Starter Jaxson Dart is out for the year, and his replacement, journeyman Jameis Winston, is not playing well at all. The game is played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Arizona is in need of a “W,” or else this season will begin to unravel early in the year.

The Week 4 game between the Cardinals and Giants will air on CBS and Paramount+ at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday.

Announcers: Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta, Aditi Kinkhabwala (sideline reporter)

Radiocoverage:

• Arizona Cardinals Radio: Arizona Sports 98.7 FM (English flagship for the Cardinals)
• New York Football Giants Radio: WFAN 101.9 FM / 660 AM (flagship for the Giants)
• Spanish Broadcast: Que Buena 1280 AM
• Satellite & Streaming: NFL+

SiriusXM Channels:

• Giants Streaming Channel: 823
• Giants Radio Channel: 199

Blue: Cardinals @ Giants

Red: Patriots @ Bills

Green: Jaguars @ Bengals

Yellow: Titans @ Ravens

Happy Friday, everyone! With all eyes on the MLB postseason and which teams will be advancing from the Wild Card series, there hasn’t been a lot of Tigers news to report on. We share below a story on some of the Tigers, like Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty, who will be entering free agency this offseason as they’re unlikely to sign extensions with the Tigers.

We also take a look at plenty of stories emerging from the postseason, from temperamental Astros fans turning on their own team, to Sonny Gray’s opinions about being pulled early from his Wild Card start, to wondering if the Yankees are the only team in the postseason doing roster building right. Lots to get into, so we’re just going to dive right in.

Detroit Tigers News

• Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty are among the Tigers who will face the free agency market this offseason.
• John Peck will be heading to the AFL.

MLB News

• How the Yankees bested the Red Sox to advance to the ALDS.
• Were the Yankees the only club to set their Wild Card roster right?
• Things are looking rough on the road ahead for the Orioles thanks to persistent injuries.
• How the Padres advanced to the NLDS.
• The White Sox might not have needed divine intervention to get to the ALDS.
• Which parks have the best home-field advantage in the postseason?
• How are the GM and CEO of the Blue Jays feeling about those Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comments?
• Some of the best moments from Wild Card history.
• Building the ultimate postseason pitching roster.
• How things got worse for the Red Sox after they returned to their clubhouse after losing the Wild Card series.
• How to watch SI’s original Shohei Ohtani documentary.
• How the Yankees proved they could win, even without Aaron Judge.
• Key takeaways from the White Sox series sweep.
• Astros fans weren’t shy about voicing their disapproval of their team when Houston was swept out of the Wild Card series.
• The Diamondbacks will be keeping Torey Lovullo around as manager.
• Sony Gray shared his displeasure at being pulled from his Wild Card start after only 70 pitches.
• A judge has ruled that rooftops surrounding Wrigley Field cannot sell tickets to watch Cubs’ games.
• Why a rigid bullpen blueprint was the undoing of the Red Sox. ($)
• How the ABS system is already changing October baseball. ($)
• Is this the last year of the Dodgers’ dynasty? ($)
• Willson Contreras shares his feelings about Big Data Baseball.

• Impossible not to like this guy.

• This post just called me “old” in a half-dozen different ways.

Baseball is a game of numbers. It’s played on the field, with balls and bats and gloves, but every action, decision, and outcome is measured by a number. Those numbers are presented to us during broadcasts, in gambling ads, and by people like me on Twitter and in pieces here on OTM. Most of the numbers we see are presented without context.

Just this week, there was plenty of chatter about how Payton Tolle has reverse splits and performs better against righties than he does against lefties. If you say that Tolle stats against righties are superior to those against lefties, you are correct. If you claim that opponents should start lefties against Tolle for that reason, citing that stat as evidence, you’d be a little bit off base.

In short, Tolle’s stats against lefties were worse than those against righties because he only throws to the best left-handed hitters. If he faced a lineup of nine lefties, he’d rack up strikeouts and groundball outs because of the pitches he has at his disposal. Tolle isn’t the point of this piece, though, so I digress.

Another example of this came after the final game of the season. The Red Sox bullpen got caved in by the Yankees, and the season ended in embarrassing fashion. During the postmortem, Sonny Gray, who was pulled after just 4.2 innings and 70 pitches, expressed his displeasure at not being allowed to continue. He said that he’s the best pitcher in the American League at facing a lineup for a third time.

His numbers facing hitters for a third time are in fact excellent: .515 OPS against, 21.6% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, and a .180 batting average in 162 plate appearances across 28 games this season. Despite this, Gray wasn’t allowed to see Cody Bellinger for a third time; Erik Miller came in and gave up a run, and the game snowballed from there, ending the Red Sox season.

If you read my work, you know I like numbers. I do my best to provide context and try to blend the stats with on-field applications, but I admit that I tend to believe what the numbers say even if they go against conventional wisdom. Those choices that go against conventional wisdom have come to be known as “analytics”. If people don’t agree with something, they blame “analytics” without knowing what information was actually used in that decision.

In this case, the consensus was that Gray was removed because “analytics” say that seeing a lineup for the third time is a disadvantage. The numbers presented above disagree with that sentiment, but the Boston Red Sox, who pay people to research these types of things, aren’t making decisions based on slash lines in 150 plate appearance samples. Still, the decision was, at least in some part, motivated by statistics.

This piece is not in defense of Chad Tracy, Craig Breslow, or anyone else who might have had a hand in the decision-making process or game planning. In fact, I’ll go as far as to say that I staunchly disagree with the decision. I didn’t have a suite of statistics at my disposal at the time, but I thought Gray had a better chance of getting the out than Miller. I actually messaged the rest of the OTM staff and said: “So this is insane, right?” Before the game, I published a piece on how the Red Sox needed Sonny Gray to go deep into the game, for the sake of both Game 2 and a potential Game 3. Even after looking at the numbers that I’ll share momentarily, I disagree with the decision, although that’s easy to do in hindsight.

Instead of supporting or tearing down the decision, what I’m trying to do here is reverse-engineer the thought process and provide some context, because despite what sports talk radio or faceless Twitter accounts might tell you, it is much more nuanced than “third time through the order bad”. Let’s do it.

I’ll set the scene. It’s the fifth inning with the Yankees leading, 1-0. Trent Grisham has reached on a single to start the inning, and swapped places on the bases with Austin Wells, who grounded out to second base but beat the throw from Trevor Story to break up the double play. Ryan McMahon struck out on a good sweeper, and Ben Rice singled on a hard ground ball through the infield to move Wells up to third base. After 70 pitches and one earned run, Gray walked off the mound.

The first thing I’ll look at is Bellinger’s other at-bats against Gray. In his first trip to the plate, he roped a first-pitch sinker to Nick Sogard, who made a great pick to get the out. His second time up, he grounded out again, this time after fouling off three two-strike pitches and spitting on a good sweeper to his back foot. If you’re judging based on those two matchups alone, I could understand the decision to not give Bellinger a third crack at Gray. Bellinger looked like he was seeing the ball well.

Next, let’s look at how Gray approached the lineup to that point.

Against the eight lefties in the Yankees’ lineup, Gray used his four-seam and sinker a combined 59% of the time. The rest of his arsenal was made up of 12 sweepers, 10 curveballs, and three changeups. The fastballs were in the zone (~60% zone rate on both the four-seam and the sinker), while all three of his secondary pitches returned zone rates between 20% and 33%. While that might seem intuitive — fastballs in the zone, putaway pitches below it — that’s not always the case for Gray. He’s usually willing to flip his curveball in for called strikes, and occasionally does the same with his sweeper. On Wednesday, the plan was clearly to attack with fastballs for strikes, and breaking balls below the zone.

The Yankees’ lefties had the second-highest hard-hit rate against in-zone breaking balls from righties this season, as well as the seventh-highest barrel rate. They had the second-highest whiff rate, but Gray’s breaking balls didn’t miss bats in the zone this season. With those statistics in mind, it’s likely that Gray wasn’t going to change his game plan.

Now let’s look at the fastballs. The third time through the lineup, their performance seriously suffers. Entering the postseason, he threw his four-seam and sinker each about 18% of the time. He also used his cutter 15% of the time, but didn’t throw a single cutter to lefties on Wednesday and used it sparingly in his final start of the regular season, so it appeared to be removed from his game plan. The fastballs that he did use weren’t nearly as effective as they were early in games. The shape and velocity held, but the results did not. His four-seam ideal contact rate jumped from 40% to 56%, as the pitch found the middle of the plate often.

The sinker returned weak contact, but that was likely because the zone rate dropped from 60% the first two times through to 40% the third time through. Because of this, the called strike rate plummeted, and the strike rate fell to near 50%.

His breaking stuff wasn’t much better. The curveball had a huge swinging strike rate and chase rate, but when hitters did connect, it was hammered to the tune of a 67% ideal contact rate. The sweeper, his best whiff pitch, saw its chase rate drop 15% the third time through, thanks to bigger misses off the plate.

Bellinger is an excellent breaking ball hitter. Gray’s fastballs lose effectiveness later in games, and hitters don’t expand the zone as frequently against his sweepers. If those are your cards, you probably want to fold that hand in favor of another. The card that Tracy chose to play is a whole other can of worms, but there was a case for Gray to be removed.

If you read this and thought, “the analytics have gone too far, who cares that Gray’s sweeper is less effective the third time through the order it’s playoff baseball you pitch with your nuts not your arm blah blah blah”, I don’t blame you. As I wrote this, I questioned if I was too in the weeds myself, and still would have probably rolled the dice with Gray. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with Gray’s early exit, I hope this provided some insight into what the team might have been thinking, because it really is deeper than blanket truths discovered by “analytics” that have been parroted 1,000 times by people who think Billy Beane ruined baseball.

When you’ve waited 32 years for your one epic career moment, you let it all out — censors be damned.

Braves journeyman Ray Kerr unleashed a spew of happy f-bombs while celebrating his 3 1/3 innings of no-run ball in the Braves’ 6-2 win over the Phillies in Game 3 of the NL wild-card series.

The southpaw served as the opener for the elimination game in his first career postseason outing and allowed just one hit and walked one batter to set the game off on the right foot for Atlanta.

“Man, starting a game and him closing it out? What the f–k, that’s coolest feeling ever,” Kerr told Braves Vision. “And him coming to me after the game and congratulating me. F–king blessing.”

Kerr’s teammates drenched him in alcohol while he provided the second part of that answer, leading to him being asked how the champagne feels.

“F–king cold,” Kerr said, which elicited a chuckle from the interviewer. “I’ve been freezing all night.”

While Thursday’s win may be remembered more for Chris Sale pitching 1 1/3 innings to close out the game just two days after his Game 1 start or Michael Harris II’s three-run first-inning homer off Aaron Nola that set Truist Field ablaze, the Braves don’t advance to the NLDS without Kerr.

Kerr had appeared in a grand total of 48 MLB games and just nine this season — his only outings over the last two years — before the Braves tapped him to serve as an opener.

Kerr’s mastery allowed him to last into the fourth inning in a 47-pitch outing, which lessened the length they need from presumed bulk pitcher Grant Holmes.

He exited the game with a 3-0 lead, and held the Phillies’ top-three hitters of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper to an 0-for-5 showing with one walk.

“I was focused from the moment I woke up,” Kerr said. “I was like we’re going to put some 0s up and get a W.”

Kerr’s journey to this moment is one filled with highs and lows, with the veteran actually working at a 7-Eleven before he eventually made his MLB debut in 2022.

He will now have a part in Braves lore for helping the NL East champs finally beat the Phillies in a postseason series.

Atlanta will now face the Dodgers in the NLDS, beginning Saturday night in Los Angeles.

“It felt great. I don’t got much on that,” he said in reference to his past. “But it was fun. It was a journey. I’ve dreamed about stuff like this. For it to actually happen, I still haven’t even processed yet. We’re just going to get after it tomorrow. Hopefully we can win the next series, and yeah.”

Donnie Baseball did an excellent job in Philadelphia to save the Phillies’ season this year – and now he’s being shown the door. 

Mattingly will not be brought back as the Phillies’ skipper after he took over midseason, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported after Thursday’s 6-2 Braves victory in Game 3 of the NL wild-card series.

The Phillies and Mattingly will reportedly announce a mutual parting of ways and give the former Yankee great a chance to stay with the team in an advisory role. 

After taking over a 9-19 Phillies team that looked like a disaster when led by Rob Thomson, Mattingly did a stellar job to right the ship and lead the team to a playoff berth.

He led the team to a 79-55 regular-season record before the 1-2 postseason showing, and he knows his future is far from certain. 

“It’s not the time to talk about anything like that,” Mattingly said after the game. “I’m not concerned about myself in this situation. I want the Phillies to do what they need to do to set themselves up for success. Yeah, I’m not really — it’s like, my stuff doesn’t really matter.”

Mattingly said hasn’t talked to Phillies general manager Dave Dombrowski about the pending offseason.

“No, I haven’t talked about it, haven’t worried about it,” Mattingly continued. “Just trying to win games, honestly, and put us in the best spot to win games and move forward from there.”

The Phillies’ team construction is the real problem, considering they have a bunch of major free-agent signings who are getting older while on big contracts with many years remaining.

Trea Turner represents what looks like one of the worst contracts in all of baseball with seven years left on his contract as he enters his age-34 season. 

Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola are also entering their age-34 seasons as a part of an aging core that may need a youth injection.

If Mattingly does depart, expect the Phillies to pursue fired Red Sox manager Alex Cora to be their skipper.

The Phillies actually offered Cora the position earlier this year before turning to Mattingly.