Category: MLB

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The Pittsburgh Pirates head into today's series finale against the San Francisco Giants as a heavy 60% moneyline favorite, with first pitch at PNC Park scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET. 

It will be a bullpen game for Pittsburgh, which has been shutting the door late in games lately. That has me backing the hosts in my Giants vs Pirates predictions. Find out more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Sep. 3. 

Who will win Giants vs Pirates today: Pirates moneyline (60%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send reliever Lake Bachar to the mound today, and while he doesn't typically work more than two innings, the righty has allowed just two earned runs across his last three outings.

The Bucs’ bullpen also owns a 3.27 FIP over the last week with no home run damage, and the San Francisco Giants have just a .148 ISO over their last seven games.

The visitors counter with Blade Tidwell, who owns a 5.81 FIP over his previous two starts while surrendering 2.53 HR/9.

Pittsburgh has the offensive profile to capitalize, carrying a 111 wRC+ over the last week. The Bucs have the edge.

Play this pick up to 62%.

COVERS INTEL: PNC Park is where the Pirates thrive offensively with a 112 wRC+. On the road, they're much worse, posting a 91 wRC+. 

Giants vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (46%)

I’m leaning Under 8.5, even with San Francisco producing a 110 wRC+ over the last week.

The issue is power. Both lineups have been light in the ISO department, which makes it harder to trust either side to break this open with one big swing.

The bullpen profiles also support a lower-scoring game, with the Giants’ relief corps posting a 3.00 FIP over its previous 31 innings while allowing just 0.58 HR/9.

Pittsburgh’s bullpen is also in strong form, giving this game fewer late-inning scoring paths. With limited power and two steady relief groups, the Under is the play.

Play up to 50%.

Giants vs Pirates home run prediction: Rafael Devers (14%)

Rafael Devers is worth a look given his recent power output. The slugger has clubbed three homers over his last seven games while posting a .370 ISO during that span.

Devers also owns a 52.7% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate recently. He has put just 38.1% of his contact in the air over the last week, but 37.5% of those fly balls have left the yard.

The matchup against Pittsburgh’s bullpen is not perfect given its ability to limit homers, but Devers’ current form is hard to ignore.

I'd play this pick up to 25%

Giants vs Pirates weather

Weather at PNC Park looks warm but slightly unsettled, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures climbing from 83°F to 89°F. Rain chances sit between 16-33%, so there’s some shower risk, but nothing that screams major postponement concern. Winds are moderate around 8-11 mph, and the warm air could slightly help carry.

Giants vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Giants 41% | Pirates 60%
• Run line: Giants +1.5 (59%) | Pirates -1.5 (42%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (55%) | Under 8.5 (46%)

Giants vs Pirates trend

The Pirates have cashed the moneyline in five of their last eight games for +1.60 units and a 17% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Pirates.

How to watch Giants vs Pirates and game info

Giants vs Pirates latest injuries

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Jose Soriano is on the bump for Toronto, and we're riding with him in our Blue Jays vs. Guardians prediction.

The Toronto Blue Jays come into the series finale as -110 favorites at BET99 and look to take back-to-back games against the Cleveland Guardians.

Can the Jays take the series and inch closer to a wild-card berth? Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 3, and find out.

Blue Jays vs Guardians predictions

Blue Jays vs Guardians best bet: Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (-110)

If the Toronto Blue Jays want to build momentum after their gargantuan 11-0 win last night, Jose Soriano is the right man to do it.

Across 46 plate appearances (we love a good sample size), the Cleveland Guardians own just a .213 xBA and .332 xSLG, which includes limiting Steven Kwan to a .159 xBA. That'll play for Toronto in a must-win game. 

The Jays are looking at Tanner Bibee like fresh bacon on Sunday morning after their offensive outburst. The beast that is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might've woken up last night after going 3-for-4 with 5 RBI and a homer; he won't be slowing down today, either, rocking a .744 xSLG against Bibee.

All the numbers point toward the Jays here; I'd play this up to -120.

COVERS INTEL: It's not just Vladdy who's feasted on Bibee this season. The Jays own a .319 xBA against him across 47 plate appearances. They'll do damage early and often here.

Blue Jays vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP) 

With Vladdy finding his swing and the Blue Jays looking to close out a series win, we are seeing strong alignment in our same-game parlay. Look for Soriano to find success today and quiet Cleveland's bats — his elite ground-ball rate is the perfect remedy for a contact-first team like the Guardians.

Blue Jays vs Guardians SGP

• Blue Jays moneyline
• Vladimir Guerrero 2+ total bases
• Jose Soriano Under 2.5 earned runs

Blue Jays vs Guardians home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+540)

If there is a player to ride momentum with, it's Vladdy. His swing finally looked like the 2025 version of himself yesterday, so we're going to hit the button one more time against a pitcher he's historically had success against. With Bibee rocking a 39% hard-hit rate and throwing his fastball 23% of the time, a pitch Vlad has hit six of his eight homers on, look for Guerrero to barrel one. At this price, it's an easy play for me.

Blue Jays vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: Toronto (-110) | Cleveland (-110)
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+155) | Cleveland +1.5 (-180)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Blue Jays vs Guardians trend

The Over is 5-1 in the Blue Jays' last six games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Guardians.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Guardians and game info

Blue Jays vs Guardians latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Guardians weather

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The Phillies have been searching for consistency in their bullpen outside all season. Outside of Jhoan Duran at closer, they’ve experienced peaks and valleys, injuries, and demotions. They acquired some help at the deadline in Brooks Raley and Caleb Kilian, but the latter is injured and may miss the rest of the season while the former appears to be suffering some regression. However, those two weren’t the only additions to the bullpen to have come in early August.

Alex McFarlane had been called up a few times this season, but he didn’t start to receive real playing time until August 11th. He’s appeared in ten total MLB games this season, nine since last being recalled, and has looked impressive. McFarlane has flashed his explosive stuff that made him so tantalizing while in the minor leagues, as he’s averaged 99.8 MPH on his fastball and has struck out ten hitters in 9.1 innings with a 26.5% whiff rate entering play on Wednesday. However, he’s also shown the thing that kept him in the minor leagues even as the Phillies were on the hunt for relief help, as McFarlane has also notched five walks in his short time in Philadelphia with 46.5% of his pitches being outside of the zone, a lower rate than the 50.7% mark he was running in Triple-A.

In any case, McFarlane has been a welcome addition to the Phillies bullpen since arriving for good from Triple-A. He’s been charged with three runs, only one of which was earned, and has allowed only four hits. He’s primarily been used in the sixth or seventh inning, but he’s been able to tally four wins as the team has scored late after his appearances, thanks in small part at least to his performance.

How Don Mattingly and the Phillies use McFarlane over the next month will be telling. Will he begin to see more leverage as the games get more important, getting his feet wet before a possible role in the postseason? Or will the team opt to keep him in the same medium leverage role he occupies now?

So, what do you think of Alex McFarlane so far?

The major league debuts of Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper were the top headline in the Twins system this month, and for good reason. There was a lot less movement across the boards as the minor league seasons wind down and we have gotten a pretty good grasp on where these prospects are at. Big months from Caden Kendle and this year’s 12th round pick Colby Turner made me think about adding them to the back end of the list, but I ultimately leave them as honorable mentions just outside the top 40. For the 2nd-to-last time this year, I present my Twins top 40 prospect list…

1. OF Walker Jenkins (MLB)

Possibly the most exciting development of the middling 2026 campaign has now become the major league debut of longtime No. 1 prospect Walker Jenkins. This comes after posting a monstrous .411/.488/.795 slash line with a 222 wRC+ at Triple-A in August. They unfortunately had to option a red-hot Alan Roden to make room, but Jenkins forced the issue and has all the tools to become a franchise cornerstone for years to come.

The bat has drawn comps to Joe Mauer for years, and for good reason. His swing has a great combination of control and bat speed. His 92.6% Z-Contact and 17.3% overall whiff rate at Triple-A are borderline elite numbers, and he has above average raw power with a good feel for lifting the ball out to all fields. Jenkins complements a talented bat with advanced swing decisions, showcasing impressive spin recognition and understanding of the strike zone.

Beyond the bat, Jenkins is a good and smart runner. He is a threat to steal a handful of bags and has been well-regarded for his intelligence as a baseball player. He has solid instincts in center field and a plus arm. He’s no Byron Buxton, but is capable of playing a good center field. He may end up settling into right field, but there is no doubt that Jenkins can be a quality defender somewhere in the outfield. With under 30 games left in the season, Walker will not graduate from prospect status this year, but he has arrived in the majors and will make the final month exciting no matter what direction the team’s playoff chances go.

2. C Vahn Lackey (A+)

With 8 extra base hits, 8 stolen bags, and more walks than strikeouts through his first 22 games, the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft is already looking the part. He slashed .397/.518/.772 at Georgia Tech this spring and now has a 155 wRC+ between Single-A and High-A.

He has average raw power with a good feel for pulling fly balls and a chance to grow into 25+ homer pop if he can add a little more juice as he matures and acclimates to the wood bat. There have been questions about his ability to adjust to secondary pitches, and those issues have continued in pro ball so far. He has been as advertised against fastballs, posting excellent contact rates with consistently high exit velocities. He has been extremely patient and has no trouble picking up spin, but the whiff rates and quality of contact against breaking and offspeed pitches have left some room for concern. Overall, looks like average or better contact with above average power in a mature approach.

Defensively, there have been some hiccups, but Lackey possesses lightning quick pop times with excellent arm accuracy. His athleticism is noticeable behind the dish and gives him a good chance to be an impactful major league catcher. His development over the past few years has been incredible and there are no signs of slowing down for Vahn Lackey. He firmly projects as a major league catcher with a valuable bat that keeps on getting better.

3. OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (AAA)

Emmanuel Rodriguez remains at the No. 3 spot as he continues to mash in Triple-A with no room for his lefty outfield profile on the major league team. He was on rehab during the first part of August but is slashing .300/.455/.633 for a 176 wRC+ in 17 games since returning to Triple-A, and he just hit for the cycle on September 1st.

While Rodriguez is lacking in the contact department and has run strikeout rates in the upper 20s throughout the minors, he is already one of the most powerful hitters in the world. His 118.3 MPH max exit velocity this season has only been bested by two major league hitters, and he has the barrel feel to crank 30+ homers on a yearly basis. E-Rod has always been known for his extreme patience and eye-popping walk rates, but he has become more aggressive in the zone this season while maintaining low chase rates. This has really allowed his power to flourish, and he’s still walking at roughly a 20% clip.

Rodriguez is a good runner who can steal a handful of bags. He has a plus arm and good range, putting him in the mix to be the Twins’ long-term center fielder, but he would fit nicely in a corner as well. The injuries remain the biggest concern with E-Rod, who is in his last option year and cannot be sent to the minors in 2027. It’s a unique situation derived from a constant heap of injuries and a loaded outfield group at the top of the Twins system. He will have to hit the ground running next year with no option for a “minor league reset,” but this guy is supremely talented with superstar potential.

4. SS Kaelen Culpepper (MLB)

Kaelen Culpepper’s first taste of Major League Baseball has been a joy to watch. His .300/.352/.463 slash line with a 129 wRC+ has given the Twins a big jolt, and he has settled in nicely at shortstop. There are some areas of concern, but Culpepper is looking like a good big league hitter already.

Swing decisions have always been an issue for Kaelen Culpepper, and that has continued to be his biggest trouble so far in the majors. With a 63% Z-Swing and 42% O-Swing, his chase rates have flown high against all pitch types. Despite this, Culpepper succeeds at the plate with impressive bat talent. He has one of the most visually appealing swings on the team, combining high bat speed with great contact skills. It’s a borderline plus hit tool that has flashed elite contact rates. With plus bat speed and a great feel for pulling fly balls, he also possesses significant power potential. There is all star talent here, but he will need to work on the approach as he settles in.

Culpepper has taken over the starting shortstop spot for the Twins and is settling in nicely on defense. He has a plus arm with solid range and a reliable glove. He likely isn’t a gold glove type shortstop but projects to be a quality defender there. He is an above-average runner and can steal 10-20 bags annually. Marek Houston may push Kaelen Culpepper to a different position. Either way, The Twins look like they have a really fun infielder on their hands who can impact the game in multiple ways.

5. SS Marek Houston (AA)

The Twins’ 2025 1st round pick has had an incredible season, impressing scouts with his offensive development and creeping his way onto top 100 lists. He cooled down quite a bit in August, slashing .214/.283/.298 for a 50 wRC+. He slumped for the first time this year, but the contact rates and swing decisions suggest that he will be perfectly fine.

Houston was seen as a fringy bat on draft day, but his 2026 emergence has suggested that there may be some legitimate impact on the offensive end. With a borderline plus hit tool and a patient approach, it is a high-OBP profile. His zone contact rate sits around 84% and he does a great job getting to pitches outside the zone even though he doesn’t chase often. Houston has shown off some playable power this year, making solid air contact and using his quick feet to take some extra bases.

He has excellent range on the defensive side with a good arm and silky smooth actions. Houston projects to stick at short and has gold glove potential there. Also been an aggressive baserunner, he is competing for the organizational lead in stolen bases with 49 so far. Houston is a high-probability big leaguer with the defensive value at a premium position while some added offensive potential has shown through this season. A 2027 debut looks probable as Marek’s time in Double-A seems to be nearing an end.

6. LHP Kendry Rojas (MLB)

An oblique injury on August 21st put Kendry Rojas on the shelf and puts the rest of his season in jeopardy, but it has been a successful one for the young southpaw. After being optioned to Triple-A at the beginning of August, Rojas made 4 starts for the Saints, allowing just 1 run in 12 innings while striking out 12 and walking 3. It is unclear whether Kendry will stick as a starter or move to the bullpen, but either way, he is looking like a good big leaguer.

His fastball lacks carry but is still a solid pitch at 95-97 with good extension. The slider is his best offering, generating good bite in the upper 80s. The changeup has also added some depth this year and works off the fastball extremely well in the upper 80s. We are still looking for him to add a third velocity to really round out the starter arsenal. The command feel is there, but Rojas has nibbled too much in the majors this year. If he can consistently throw strikes and be more efficient, Kendry has the talent to be a mid rotation starter for the Twins next year.

7. RHP Riley Quick (AA)

Walks and homers continue to give Riley Quick some fits at Double-A as the success has come and gone. He has posted a 5.79 ERA and 6.15 FIP over his first 7 starts in Wichita but is pitching better as of late, and the electric stuff continues to show through in a big way, totaling 103 strikeouts in 72.2 innings this season.

Quick has a wide and whippy release, almost sidearm, with elite extension. The delivery likely contributes to command inconsistencies but also makes it difficult for hitters to pick up the spin on his pitches. He leads with a heavy fastball in the mid 90s. The 4-seamer is a deadzone pitch and he leans more on the sinker, which gets more than 13 inches of horizontal run and contributes to excellent ground ball rates. His slider is the best pitch, generating whiff rates around 2,800 in the mid 80s. It’s a plus pitch with sharp two-plane break that has been difficult for minor league hitters to touch no matter where its thrown. Quick has struggled to command his upper 80s changeup, but it gets elite depth and has been a devastating pitch to lefties. His low 90s cutter is a solid 4th pitch.

Strike-throwing and efficiency will need to improve if Riley Quick is going to be a big league starter, but his stuff will give him a home in the majors one way or another. There is still plenty of development ahead. After getting Tommy John in 2024, he only got one year as a starter at Alabama and still has a ways to go to build up his workload. The Twins have aggressively pushed Quick through the system this year, and he has validated their belief in him at every level. There is a good chance that he will enter the big league mix at some point in 2027, and he has the talent to be a headliner of the Twins rotation.

8. RHP Charlee Soto (A+)

Charlee Soto briefly returned from injury in June but was sent back to the IL after forearm soreness continued to be an issue. He has been on a throwing program, but it’s looking like his 2026 season is over.

The injuries are starting to pile up, but at 6’3” with a linebacker build, there is no doubt that he has the frame to handle high velocity. The fastball has pushed into the upper 90s and averaged 98.1 MPH in his two short starts this year. It’s a sinker-type that fills up the zone and generates ground balls. The secondaries are what makes Charlee Soto so intriguing. He speeds you up with the high velocity and then picks you apart with three plus secondaries. He has always had a natural changeup feel, generating 17 inches of horizontal movement in the upper 80s with excellent command. He has a cutter in the upper 80s and a slider in the mid 80s, both generating plus depth with spin rates around 2,400.

He is developing solid command and has filled up the strike zone in his first few years in the pros. It is firmly frontline starter profile if he can build up a workload while staying healthy. Soto is still just 20 years old with arguably the most talented arm in the system.

9. C Eduardo Tait (A+)

Eduardo Tait just turned 20 and remains young for his level, but he slashed just .176/.247/.282 in August. Now surpassing 150 games at High-A, he is yet to show any real signs of dominance at the level. He has racked up 22 homers in 113 games, but the 75 wRC+ leaves much to be desired.

Tait is one of the most powerful bats in the Twins system, boasting a max exit velocity around 114 MPH with a great feel for elevating the ball. He has fringy contact skills, running zone contact rates just over 80%. The aggressive approach and lack of spin recognition is the biggest issue for Tait, who is chasing at nearly a 40% clip this season. The excessive chase has led to increased whiff rates and lowered quality of contact.

He is splitting time pretty evenly between catcher and DH, not playing anywhere else this year. Tait has shown signs of development behind the dish. Not the most athletic backstop, but his receiving and blocking projects to be passable, and he employs a plus arm that can gun down runners at a high rate. Eduardo Tait remains an incredibly high-upside prospect at a very young age, but the lack of success in well over a full season of High-A baseball is starting to become a concern. The glimpses of strong contact skills are giving Tait the edge over Tinney right now, but the two are very close.

10. C/1B Carson Tinney (A)

Twins 2nd round draft pick Carson Tinney has wowed with his bat over the first month of his pro career. Slashing .227/.420/.576 for a 158 wRC+ and 7 homers in 20 games, Tinney is showing everyone exactly why Minnesota drafted him so high.

His contact and strikeout numbers are settling in at respectable rates as he gets more comfortable in the pros while the power is absolutely flourishing. A 114.9 max exit velocity and 107.4 90th are borderline elite numbers, and his feel for pulling fly balls gives Tinney potential for 70 grade power. He has an extremely passive approach, running an overall swing rate below 32%. It’s a volatile true outcome approach, but there is easily 30+ homer upside.

Tinney was drafted as a catcher, but the Twins have already began getting him a little experience at first base. He’s bigger and a more lumbery athlete that doesn’t move well behind the dish. He has a solid arm and developing receiving and blocking. There is hope that he can develop into a major league catcher, but a move to first base or a mix of the two may be in store. With light tower power, Carson Tinney has a chance to be a big-time slugger for the Twins for a long time.

11. RHP Adrian Bohorquez (AA)

After forearm issues plagued the first half of the season for Adrian Bohorquez, the righty flamethrower has hit his stride and is starting to drift towards top 100 territory. At 6’1” with a filled-in frame, Bohorquez sits 96-98 with good carry on his fastball, a plus offering that misses a lot of bats at the top of the zone. He has an excellent feel for spin and tosses a pair of plus breaking balls in an upper 80s slider and low 80s curveball. Both pitches have sharp bite and generate excellent whiff rates. Lack of a quality changeup has given Bohorquez some fits against righties as his low 90s power change has middling traits and struggles to find much success as he moves up the system. His absolute dominance against righties with three plus offerings gives him a good baseline as an electric bullpen arm, but there is mid-rotation starter potential here if Bohorquez can find a way to get lefties out.

12. 3B/OF Brandon Winokur (AA)

We have gotten middling production this year from 21-year-old Brandon Winokur as he pushes through Double-A. His athletic profile remains highly intriguing as a guy who can hit 30 homers and steal some bags while playing high-level defense at third base or the outfield. There are significant hit tool concerns for Winokur, who has batted around .250 this season with strikeout rates in the upper 20s. He has also been more aggressive and struggled with spin recognition as pitch execution gets more advanced in the upper levels. His plus arm and good range are developing nicely at both third base and center field, where I think Winokur can be an impactful defender at either position. With potential for plus power and valuable defense, the ceiling is high for the developing slugger.

13. C/OF Khadim Diaw (AA)

23-year-old Khadim Diaw has received constant praise for his coachability, work ethic, and attention to detail as a pro, and with some of the strongest production in the Twins system since the beginning of 2025, injuries have been the only thing holding Diaw back. He has limited power but a short and controlled swing that generates excellent contact rates and consistent quality contact. He pairs it with a mature approach and strong swing decisions, leading to a 23 to 18 walk to strikeout ratio through 42 games at Double-A. He is a good athlete who can steal a handful of bags and moves well behind the dish and in center field. While there are questions about how his average arm will play at catcher, his receiving and blocking have given the Twins hope that he can be a part-time catcher at the major league level while spending some time in the outfield. It’s a fun utility profile that can fill multiple roles in one roster spot while adding speed on the bases and providing some quality offense from the right side of the plate. At the rate he’s going at, Khadim Diaw will likely start the 2027 season in Triple-A with a good chance to debut next year.

14. OF Hendry Mendez (AAA)

Hendry Mendez is a big lefty bat with a well-rounded offensive profile. He lacks athleticism and struggles defensively, looking like a fringy left fielder at best. As a hitter, Mendez has a borderline plus hit tool, running strong contact rates with an 86% Z-Con and low fly ball rates that will maximize batting average. He has violent bat speed with a max exit velocity of 112.o MPH and consistent hard contact, but his high rate of ground and line drive contact severely limits power production. With excellent swing decisions, it is a well-rounded offensive profile that is almost guarenteed to produce a productive major league hitter, especially if Mendez can elevate the ball more often. As one of the highest floor bats in the system and already on the 40-man, Hendry Mendez seems ready to debut whenever the Twins decide to call on him.

15. RHP Ethan Wachsmann (DRAFT)

The Twins paid $2.25M (slot value $1.05M) to pry 18-year-old Ethan Wachsmann away from Wake Forest in the 3rd round. The 6’5” righty is raw but oozing with arm talent. He has a fairly easy delivery from a 3/4 arm slot. The ball pops out of his hand, sitting upper 90s and running up to 100 with a lot of spin. Likely looking at more of a sinker type similar to Charlee Soto unless there are some mechanical changes. He has a trio of secondaries that have flashed some fun potential, but are very raw at the moment. The most enticing is the curveball around 80, which is highly inconsistent but has flashed spin rates as high as 2,900 with sharp two-plane break. He has a harder cutterish slider in the mid 80s and an upper 80s changeup that kills spin and has flashed some quality fade. There is a long way to go, as we have seen with Dasan Hill and Charlee Soto, but the velocity and spin with his big frame make Ethan Wachsmann an incredibly exciting pitching prospect.

16. RHP Ryan Gallagher (AAA)

Ryan Gallagher was looking great in July and early August, pitching efficiently and looking like a real major league starter. After close to 100 grueling innings of Triple-A baseball this year, it seems like he is running out of gas. His fastball has dropped a tick and he has struggled in his last couple outings, but he remains a promising back-end starter option going forward. His fastball sits 91-94 with good spin and a little bit of carry at the top of the zone. Gallagher’s mid 80s cutter and changeup around 80 continue to be effective secondaries, generating excellent whiff rates and lots of weak contact. He has ditched the slider but continues to mix in a slower curveball about 10% of the time. Strike-throwing has come and gone, but at his peak, Gallagher has shown he can be an efficient and effective starter, combining quality strike-throwing with solid stuff and a nice array of shapes and velocities. He’s 23 years old and one step away from the majors after just two full years in the pros. If he can add a tick to the fastball and add a little bit of whiff to the pitch, then I like his chances of filling a back-end rotation spot with 150+ quality innings.

17. RHP Brett Renfrow (DRAFT)

6’3” right-hander Brett Renfrow made 15 starts with 70+ innings in each of his three season at Virginia Tech. He will be ready to hit the ground running next year, where his smooth mechanics, quality strike-throwing, and 4 pitch arsenal should allow him to eat innings as a high-probability starter. He gets good extension down the mound on his fastball that sits low 90s and tops out around 97 with good carry and spin. Renfrow has a good feel for spin on the breaking balls, featuring a mid 80s slider with some good bite and a little late sweep. The curveball can be a nice 4th offering in the low 80s. The changeup has shown good iVB separation from the fastball, but is still developing a feel. There is a baseline as a quality reliever here with the carry fastball and good slider. If that fastball can creep up into the mid 90s more consistently and we get some changeup development, I see mid rotation upside here.

18. RHP Marco Raya (MLB)

It has been an up and down season for Marco Raya, who had a two month stretch as one of the best pitchers in Triple-A, but hit the IL shortly after his MLB debut and wound up struggling in the minor leagues again. But Raya found something with his fastball in mid-August that has turned him into a completely different pitcher. In the middle of the season, he made some adjustments to his fastball that added over 200 RPMs and about 3 inches of vert. A heater that struggled to find success for most of the year has now been generating elite whiff rates for the past couple weeks. His sweeper, curveball, and changeup all continue to be excellent whiff pitches, rounding out an arsenal that now looks like it has major league closer potential. We will have to wait and see if Raya can maintain these fastball specs through September and going into next season, but I am already buying in.

19. RHP James Ellwanger (A)

The 2025 3rd round pick underwent Tommy John in June and will now spend the entire offseason and potentially a portion of next year rehabbing. He turns 23 next season and has just 11 professional innings under his belt, but it’s 11 scoreless innings at that, and Ellwanger has very intriguing stuff. The fastball is mid 90s but lacks quality shape, which is limiting its swing-and-miss potential. His low 80s curveball is the best pitch with some sharp two-plane break. A cutter in the low 90s has potential and his changeup flashes plus with elite depth. Ellwanger threw an adequate amount of strikes in April, but it was a lot of spray-and-pray with poor precision. The velocity and feel for spin makes for exciting potential, but command concerns and now a torn UCL make him more likely than not a reliever.

20. OF Yasser Mercedes (A+)

Yasser Mercedes has struggled to catch on in High-A, posting an 87 wRC+ with a near 30% strikeout rate over 84 games at the level, but he is still just 21 years old with some of the most tantalizing physical tools in the system. It’s easy plus power for the 6’1” righty, running a max exit velocity near 114 MPH with a strong barrel feel. Mercedes has smacked 18 homers this season while competing for the organizational steals lead with 52 and counting. He is a plus runner, and while he may not have the instincts to stick in center field, his plus arm with that athleticism will play in right field. His swing is a bit jerky with some loud pre-swing hand movement. Quite a bit of whiff with questionable spin recognition and poor swing decisions. This is year 5 as a pro now for Yasser Mercedes, and while he has huge potential, the hit tool concerns and middling production are causing some doubt.

21. OF Eduardo Beltre (A)

Eduardo Beltre hasn’t played since April due to a knee injury and is out for the season. There are some concerns with swing decisions, but he has shown off plus power potential since his debut season in the DSL where he jacked 11 homers in 43 games at age 17. He already has a strong build and is running exit velocities up to 110 MPH. It’s a small sample size, but his 83% zone contact rate this season gives me hope that there is a playable hit tool, and his strikeout rates were manageable during his time in rookie ball. Beltre is a good athlete who can steal some bags. He has split time across all three outfield spots, and his plus arm and quality range project to fit nicely into a corner spot with some playable center field defense. Losing nearly a full season this early in his career is a tough break, but Eduardo Beltre is a toolsy right-handed hitter with some real slugger potential.

22. OF Luis Fragoza (A+)

Maybe the most surprising breakout prospect in the Twins system this season, 19-year-old Luis Fragoza has gone from rookie ball to High-A, producing at an elite level while showing off loud tools. His 110 MPH max exit velocity is advanced for his age and creates hope for plus power as he continues to mature. His swing is a little long, but its sound and smooth. The hit tool looks fringy at the moment, but improved swing decisions could push his contact numbers closer to average territory. Fragoza projects to be an average runner who can steal some bags. He has also shown some utility, playing a mix of corner outfield and corner infield and looking solid all over the place. It is very early for Luis Fragoza, but the mix of raw talent and advanced skills at his age are exciting.

23. SS/3B Quentin Young (A)

Quentin Young found some success in August as he continues to post elite barrel rates and some of the most absurd exit velocities we have ever seen from a teenager, but his 45% strikeout rate hasn’t budged one bit. While Young possesses 70 grade power with an excellent barrel feel to all fields, his hit tool won’t get him to Double-A in its current state. He has a rocket arm and projects to fit nicely at third base. He has all of the raw talent in the world, but some significant swing improvements are needed in order to push Quentin Young’s career in the right direction.

24. UTIL Ben Ross (MLB)

As a September call-up, Ben Ross fills out a valuable utility bench role for the Twins. Ross has limited raw power and fringy contact skills, but excellent spin recognition and a good feel for pulling fly balls give his bat a real chance to be passable in the majors. With just a 22% chase rate against breaking pitches and some real success against fastballs, it won’t be all that easy for pitchers to get him out. Ross is an above-average runner who can do some damage on the bases. He’s also a borderline plus defender who can play sound defense anywhere in the infield or outfield. It’s not an exciting profile, but one that you find on the bench of almost every good MLB team.

25. C/1B Enrique Jimenez (A+)

Enrique Jimenez had his season end on July 24th with a hamstring strain, but he is close to a return and will be able to have a normal offseason. He played just 40 games and saw some elevated whiff rates when me moved up to High-A, but I’m very intrigued by the switch-hitting bat. He gets a lot of elevation in his swing, which contributes to the fringy hit tool. He has a good chance for at least average power production, running exit velocities up to 107 MPH with a great feel for pulling fly balls. He also has a very patient and mature approach, maintaining low chase rates while being fairly aggressive in the strike zone. He has limited movement skills behind the dish and an average arm, but is showing good development and projects to at least be passable there. It’s early for Jimenez and injuries really slowed him down this year, but I like his potential as a quality backup catcher.

26. OF Kala’i Rosario (AAA)

There are whiff concerns and limited defensive impact with Kala’i Rosario, but he slashed .254/.329/.619 for a 132 wRC+ in 18 games Triple-A games in August. There is plus raw power with a max exit velocity north of 112 MPH and a strong feel for pulling fly balls. Rosario is showcasing excellent spin recognition, maintaining low chase rates while attacking fastballs in the zone. There are significant hit tool concerns, especially with offspeed pitches. Still, the power and advanced approach leave enough hope for major league production. He is a solid athlete with fringy corner outfield defense, but a big arm that will play in right field. Kala’i Rosario has hovered around this fringe big league prospect territory for a few years now, but the career of Brent Rooker shows us that you can’t ever write off a guy with with kind of explosive profile.

27. 2B/SS Kyle DeBarge (AA)

The offensive production for Kyle DeBarge is still lacking at Double-A, but he has settled in a little bit, maintaining a patient approach with high walk rates while running into more contact. Defensively, he is an above average middle infield defender, splitting time between second and short. He runs well and has been an aggressive baserunner, stealing 34 bags this season and 66 in 2025. DeBarge looks like a fringy hitter that can impact the game in a big way with his feet and glove.

28. OF Yovanny Duran (A)

18-year-old Yovanny Duran is finishing the season in Single-A Fort Myers after dominating the FCL this summer to the tune of a 146 wRC+. While the Single-A slash line doesn’t look pretty, the underlying numbers are solid and he is showcasing some advanced tools for his age. He has a short line drive swing with a quick bat from both sides of the plate. His swing decisions are very advanced, showing off good spin recognition and an excellent understanding of the strike zone. The raw bat talent looks questionable at the moment as Duran has lacked raw power and his contact numbers are around average. Duran is an aggressive baserunner who has stolen 40+ bags this season but at a below average success rate. He projects to be an average runner and will play some center field throughout the minors, but likely ends up in a corner, where he can be an impactful defender with a good arm. The development of Yovanny’s bat will be fun to watch as he plays his first full minor league season next year at age 19.

29. 1B/OF Gabriel Gonzalez (MLB)

It was a good month of August for Gabby Gonzalez, who rode elite contact rates to a .290 average and 123 wRC+ at Triple-A before being called up to the majors at the end of the month. Poor quality of contact and a chase-heavy approach continue to limit the righty, however. He has performed well against lefties and could find some success in a short-side platoon role. Gonzalez has limited athleticism and struggles in the outfield. He has a plus arm but has looked more comfortable at first base. It’s not a high-upside profile, but Gabby is a MLB-ready bat that can provide some offense in a bench role.

30. RHP Eli Jones (AA)

Despite not pitching since May due to injury and not having particularly eye-popping numbers, I see Eli Jones as one of the Twins’ top true starting pitching prospects. He is a 6’1” righty with a deep repertoire and heavy strike-throwing. He posted a 4.39 ERA and 3.50 FIP on good volume this spring before the injury. He leads with a sinker, which has pushed more consistently into the mid 90s and generates a ton of ground contact. The 4-seamer is mixed in as well and can generate some whiff at the top of the zone. Jones has a trio of average breaking balls with distinct shapes and velocities, also having a lot of success against lefties with his mid 80s changeup. Not a flashy prospect, but a pitchability arm with decent stuff and excellent strike-throwing. Eli Jones is destined for the back end of a major league rotation if he can continue on this upward trajectory.

31. RHP Reed Moring (A+)

We have gotten mixed results from Reed Moring since his promotion to High-A at the end of July, but after only throwing 48 innings combined in his last two years at USCB and now creeping up towards 100 innings this year, it is reasonable to assume that Moring is running out of gas. His fastball sits low 90s with good ride, a pitch that could really do some damage if he can work it into the mid 90s. He has a big league slider, getting some good bite in the mid 80s but has caught far too much of the strike zone with it this year, leading to some hard contact. The changeup kills spin and generates great vertical separation from the fastball. It will be a huge pitch for him against lefties as he gets more comfortable using it. A slower 12-6 curve is mixed in as well and has been effective. Command is a work-in-progress, but Reed Moring is tracking towards mid-rotation stuff. He has come on very strong for a late round pick in year one.

32. RHP Tommy LaPour (DRAFT)

The Twins 4th round draft pick is 6’4” with a strong build and a heavy fastball. The heater sits 92-96 with good carry and has flashed up to 100. His best secondary is the changeup, which gets excellent vertical separation in the upper 80s. The slider is fringy and is a questionable third pitch. LaPour commanded the arsenal well in 2025, but lost it a bit this year after an elbow injury cost him most of the spring. There is some starter potential here, but we are more likely looking at a reliever who’s plus potential fastball gives him a high floor. Development of a reliable breaking ball will be key.

33. RHP Alejandro Hidalgo (AAA)

Right-handed reliever Alejandro Hidalgo has struggled in Triple-A this year with a 7.43 ERA and 7.72 FIP, but the Statcast data is solid, and he has all the tools necessary to be an electric major league reliever at just 23 years old. His secondaries have been dominant this year. The upper 80s cutter is an above average pitch that has generated a 42% whiff rate and .263 xwOBA on about 30% usage. His mid 80s changeup has been even better, generating a whiff rate north of 50% with a .123 xwOBA on similar usage. It has average shape, but excellent velo separation mixed with great arm action working off the fastball has a devastating effect on hitters. The fastball itself has been a problem. It sits 95-97 with good specs but is being barreled at a monstrous rate and has had very little success all season. Given its quality shape and the success of his secondaries, Hidalgo finding success with his fastball and becoming a lights-out reliever with a great 3-pitch mix seems reasonable. At just 23 years old with a unique road through the minors over the past few years, there is plenty of hope for continued development. However, he is Rule 5 eligible this offseason and may not be giving the Twins enough reason to add him to the 40-man.

34. RHP Matt Barr (A)

Matt Barr’s first pro season hasn’t come without adversity as he spent the first couple months recovering from a broken arm. After struggling to find the strike zone in his rookie ball stint, Barr has honed in the strike-throwing since being promoted to Single-A, but it remains a lot of spray-and-pray with a very raw feel for command. He has a low effort delivery with poor extension and a wide release point. His fastball sits low 90s with elite spin rates around 2,500 but deadzone shape. The spin rates and release characteristics give me hope that Barr can make the fastball work, but it isn’t generating any whiff and its current state will not work in the upper minors. The plus slider is his best pitch, possessing spin rates near 3,000 in the 82-85 MPH range with excellent two-plane break. He tends to lollipop the spinner into the zone, which is limiting its whiff rates, but it has wipeout potential if Barr can consistently locate it in the chase zone. There is no changeup, but he diversifies his arsenal by mixing in a curveball and cutter, both having average characteristics. Despite being a breaking ball specialist from the right side, Barr has been better against lefties than righties this year. The chances of him sticking as a starter are low and fastball improvements are crucial, but the plus slider is a nice start for a 20-year-old who looks like he can find a home in a major league bullpen.

35. RHP Steele Murdock (DRAFT)

The Twins drafted Steele Murdock at the top of the 5th round in July, and there is some intriguing talent in this right-handed arm. He struggled with walks at UCSD but posted 12.7 K/9 this year, backed by a plus slider in the low 80s. Spin rates sit in the 2,500 range with sharp bite, generating excellent whiff rates. He leads with a unique cut fastball that gets good carry in the low-to-mid 90s and has flashed up to 99 MPH. Occasionally throws a mid 70s curveball, but it’s mainly a two-pitch mix. He will need to broaden the repertoire and throw more strikes if he wants to stick as a starter, but the reliever profile is already looking very strong. For what it’s worth, he dominated the Cape last summer as a closer, posting a 2.16 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 16.2 innings.

36. OF Teilon Serrano (FCL)

Big raw tools from lefty outfielder Teilon Serrano at just 18 years old, and they have been accompanied by real production in two years of rookie ball. Extremely patient hitter with hit tool concerns, finishing with a 27.3% walk rate and 30.4% strikeout rate in the FCL this season. He has plus power potential, already registering exit velocities north of 109 MPH. He’s a good athlete who has split time between all three outfield spots. A long way out, but there is value in an athletic outfielder with a high-upside bat.

37. RHP Santiago Castellanos (FCL)

Patience is a virtue with Santiago Castellanos, who dominated the DSL at 16 years old and is one of the more well-rounded international pitchers we have seen come through the Twins system in recent years. His 3 pitch mix is led by a 92-95 MPH fastball with some lively riding action at the top of the zone. It has plus potential as a heater that has ran up to 97 in his teenage years. The slider flashes good bite in the mid 80s while the changeup already has great feel with wicked fade. Its an above-average arsenal across the board that Castellanos throws for a lot of strikes. He didn’t pitch much in the FCL this season and has dealt with an injury for part of the summer, but should have a normal offseason and be ready for 2027. He is freshly 18 and looks like a really intriguing arm that will hopefully infiltrate full-season ball at some point next season.

38. RHP Thomas Burns (DRAFT)

Thomas Burns is a really fun pick by the Twins in the 8th round. Burns worked strictly as a reliever at Texas this past spring and tallied a ridiculous 43 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. He is 6’3” with a very high-effort delivery that produced some nasty stuff. The fastball is 70 grade, sitting upper 90s with elite carry, overpowering hitters and generating a 40% whiff rate. He tosses a cutter in the upper 80s with above-average traits but a lack of command. The changeup has flashed good specs, but has no feel. Burns already has big league stuff and could make his major league debut as early as next year. His lack of command gives some reason for concern, but the upside out of the bullpen is awesome.

39. LHP Garrett Horn (A+)

Garrett Horn was drafted in the 6th round by the Rangers in 2024 and came over in exchange for Danny Coulombe at last year’s trade deadline. The 6’2” lefty only threw 16 innings this year due to some shoulder issues, but he is one of the most intriguing lefty arms in the system. The fastball is borderline plus, sitting 92-95 with good extension and elite carry in 3-4 innings starts. Horn pairs it with a good slider in the low 80s that has been a devastating pitch against lefties, and he can morph it into a cutter in the upper 80s. He has struggled with walks since joining the Twins’ org. It is firmly a reliever profile, but one that has a chance to be highly productive in that role. After an injury-riddled season, it may be time to move Garrett Horn to a bullpen role, where he could climb through the minors and debut as soon as 2027.

40. OF Merphy Hernandez (A)

19-year-old lefty outfielder Merphy Hernandez leads the Twins system with 54 stolen bags this season and looks to finish top 5 in all of Single-A despite not reaching the level until late May. Hernandez is a plus runner and surefire center fielder with elite range and a good arm, but there are certainly questions about his bat being major league caliber. The hit tool looks fringy right now, but there is plenty of hope that improvements can be made. He has a very jerky and violent swing with a big leg kick and a lot of pre-swing hand movement. The raw power is below average but developing, and Merphy is showing a solid barrel feel at 19 years old. His chase rates are high against fastballs this year, but he is showing advanced spin recognition and I don’t mind him being a little too aggressive against the heater. There is a lot of development left with the bat, but the potential is there and he has a high floor as a plus runner with potential for gold glove caliber defense in center field.

Well, if you wanted a key regular season stretch for the 2026 Atlanta Braves, you got a key regular season stretch.

The Braves are four games up on the Phillies. They have four games with the Phillies, in Philadelphia. Then they come home and play three with the Rays, and three with the Phillies. And they’re not done yet — after that homestand they head to Chicago to play the Cubs, and then Houston to play the Astros. This is 16 games in 16 days against likely playoff teams.

The Braves haven’t had a stretch like this. Their previous “gauntlet” this season was Dodgers-Cubs-Red Sox, but the Red Sox were horrible at the time (early-mid May). The Braves went 6-3 in that span. The only other thing that comes close is the Brewers and Dodgers back to back, and even that worked out pretty well with the close-game-laden sweep of the Dodgers.

So, here we are. Peak Regular Season… but an off-day today. It amuses me greatly that this actually would’ve been a weird “two off days in one week” affair with a two-game series sandwiched between the rest days, but for the makeup game against the Giants. What are you doing to prepare? What are you gonna do tonight, with both the Braves and Phillies off?

What if I had told you Wednesday afternoon that in the game in which the Cubs had to face Jacob Misiorowski, they’d pretty much give him the worst beatdown of his MLB career?

You’d have been pretty happy, right? Figure the Cubs should win that game, right?

Well, nope. The Cubs did do exactly that to “the Miz,” with a strong game plan and some excellent hitting, but the pitching staff could not hold the Brewers down and the visitors from Milwaukee defeated the Cubs 9-5.

Sigh.

This game did not begin well for the Cubs. After David Peterson retired the first two Brewers on just five pitches, they followed with two hits, a walk and another single to take a 2-0 lead.

The Cubs, however, did not flinch — at least at first. Pete Crow-Armstrong worked a leadoff walk off Misiorowski and one out later, Alex Bregman put a ball in the bleachers [VIDEO].

Peterson gave the Brewers the lead back in the second on a solo homer by Jackson Chourio.

Cubs hitters came right back against Misiorowski. Matt Shaw tripled with one out and a single by Tyrone Taylor tied the game 3-3 [VIDEO].

One out later, PCA walked again. BCB’s JohnW53 explains why that was significant:

This is PCA’s 16th game with multiple walks, tying Michael Busch for most on the Cubs. Seiya Suzuki has 15; Alex Bregman, 11; and no one else more than eight.

PCA had two all of last year, when Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker had 17, followed by Suzuki, with 10, and Busch six.

Suzuki followed with another walk, loading the bases, and Bregman singled in a pair [VIDEO].

The Cubs thus had a two-run lead at 5-3 after just two innings.

Friends, that would not last long.

Peterson managed to get through the third holding the lead, but fell apart in the fourth. A one-out walk was followed by a double by Chourio, then Brice Turang bunted. Miguel Amaya tried to get the out at the plate [VIDEO].

That, in my view, was a mistake and helped set up a big inning for Milwaukee. Peterson was not in position to take the throw. If Amaya gets the out at first — which he could have — the run still scores and maybe the Cubs get out of the inning with only one or two runs scoring, instead of three. The latter happened when the next two Brewers singled. Milwaukee is a team that you can’t give these extra chances to, because they will pounce on them.

So the Brewers are up 6-5 heading to the bottom of the fourth. That’s not an insurmountable lead.

Only it was for the Cubs, because the bats went silent after Bregman’s two-run single in the second. The Cubs had just four more baserunners the rest of the game — a one-out single by Happ in the third, a two-out walk by Suzuki in the fourth, a two-0ut walk by Amaya in the sixth and a single by PCA with two out in the ninth. None of the runners got past first base.

You cannot win games that way, I am sure you will agree.

Meanwhile, the Cubs bullpen did an okay job until the seventh, when Daniel Palencia was touched up for a run on a double by Christian Yelich and single by Cooper Pratt. Then Jacob Webb put the game completely out of reach in the ninth, in part because he took this line drive off his arm [VIDEO].

So before I update you on Webb, let me say something about that throw. The competitor in any baseball player wants to make plays. Webb thought maybe he could still get the runner out. There is no chance that was true. He should have just held the ball.

In any case, Webb left the game. Fortunately:

So maybe Webb hits the injured list, though also maybe a couple of days resting the arm would be okay. Gallows humor: So THIS is the way to get Javier Assad back on the team?

Two runs wound up scoring in the Brewers ninth after Colin Rea relieved Webb, and it might have been more except for this great throw by Happ [VIDEO].

There are two more defensive gems I want to show you. Nico Hoerner made this great diving catch to end the top of the fifth [VIDEO].

And another from Nico to start the ninth [VIDEO].

If not for those, the score of this game might have been a lot worse than 9-5. And here’s how bad this game was:

Seven losses in the last 29 games that way. That’s not the way to make the postseason, or win postseason games.

And all of this came after they gave Misiorowski the worst beatdown of his MLB career. From John:

The Cubs’ five runs off Jacob Misiorowski tied for the most he has allowed in any start of his two-year career. He gave up five twice last season, in 3.2 innings at New York vs. the Mets and in 1.1 at Cincinnati, then did it in 5.0 at home vs. the Reds on July 2.

The four walks earned by the Cubs also tied Misiorowski’s career high. He did it once last year, then April 7 of this year in 5.1 IP and June 26 vs. Cubs in 6.0.

So he had done both of those things before (allow five runs and four walks), but this was the first time both of those things had happened in the same start for “the Miz.” The Cubs had a good offensive game plan and executed it — well, for two innings, at least. And the pitching staff just got pounded by Brewers hitters.

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame remarks [VIDEO].

Counsell again sounds exasperated during those comments, with lots of sighing. You can tell he’s as frustrated as anyone with the pitching failures. About his thoughts on Palencia: It appears to me that Palencia is still not quite right. His velocity is down a tick or two and he doesn’t seem to be locating well. As Counsell says, the team needs Palencia to be right. I think he will be, eventually, but that doesn’t help the “right now” that the Cubs need him for.

One last note on this game: A frighteningly large number of pitches were thrown for the second straight night. On Tuesday, the Brewers threw 182 pitches and the Cubs 137; Wednesday, Milwaukee pitchers threw 150 and Cubs hurlers 177. That made for a 3:18 game for the second consecutive day and if you think that’s long (and it is), those are likely four-hour games without the pitch timer.

The Cubs still have a chance to split this four-game series in its finale Thursday evening. Kevin Gausman will start for the Cubs and Logan Henderson will go for Milwaukee. Game time is 6:15 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Fox-TV (regional — coverage map). A reminder that if you subscribe to MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings, you can watch this game via those services even if it’s not on the Fox affiliate in your market.

With the Mets working in an extra day of rest for Christian Scott down the stretch, it presents an opportunity for others to receive a shot in the big-league rotation. 

On Wednesday night, it was Justin Hagenman’s turn.

Making his first MLB appearance back following a long IL stint, the journeyman right-hander threw well, holding the Rays to just one run on two hits across three innings. 

He retired the first eight hitters he faced before running into two-out trouble in the third.

“Solid,” Andy Green said. “What we typically expect from him.” 

Hagenman hit a bit of a walk towards the end, so he turned things over to Chris Devenski, who was hurt by a controversial call at first on a potential pickoff. 

Devenski gave up three runs on three straight hits directly after. 

The rest of the bullpen did an extremely solid job behind him, though, as the next four relievers combined to keep Tampa off the board over the final 5.1 innings. 

Dedniel Núñez took home the victory after putting together a perfect appearance (1.1), Nate Lavender left in some seventh inning trouble but Daniel Duarte picked him up, then Jonathan Pintaro put on the finishing touches in the ninth. 

“I thought it was great,” Green said. “I even thought Devenski was solid too -- we had a chance to get out of that inning without allowing a run, but from there on out on it was dominant against a very good offense.

“We ran a lot of good arms out and didn’t have to use Senga, so it was a good day.”

New York being able to take two out of three from the AL East leaders without having any of their top three starters on the bump certainly is an impressive feat. 

Here at Over The Monster, we like to ask a topical question of the day; but on this dreary morning, we might as well be asking the question of the month. Very simply: If the Wild Card series started today, who would you want starting those three games?

Of course, the Wild Card series doesn’t start today, and Red Sox haven’t officially punched their ticket into the dance yet. But with FanGraphs giving them a 97.1 percent chance to make the playoffs and only 0.3 percent chance to win the division as of this morning, it seems pretty darn likely they’re going to be playing baseball on September 29th (and playing it somewhere other than Fenway Park).

The Red Sox know this as well and have already reshuffled their rotation to pitch Sonny Gray on Saturday (September 5th) and Payton Tolle on Sunday (September 6th). With off days for the month already scheduled for the 10th, 14th, 17th, and 28th (assuming they make the playoffs), this means Gray and Tolle could pitch with an extra day of rest every start from here to the end of the year in a normal five man rotation and be perfectly lined up to pitch Game 1 and Game 2 of the Wild Card series. (September 11th and 12th against the Royals, September 17th and 18th against the Rangers and Rays, September 23rd and 24th against the Guardians, and September 29th and 30th against the Wild Card opponent.)

So the Red Sox have already told us who they believe will start the first two games of the playoffs indirectly, but third option is far more complex. Historically, Ranger Suarez would be the best man for the job. Not only did they just give him a $130 million contract in January, but he also has a 1.48 career ERA in the playoffs. However, the Sox might not be too pleased with the way he threw the ball in Sunday’s start against the Yankees with the tiebreaker on the line, and they might not want to set things up that way again for a potential winner take all game on October 1st.

So what about tonight’s starter Jake Bennett? He just might be pitching for a postseason starting job over the next few weeks. If he does well and nobody steps up, the Sox could end up sending a rookie to the mound to start and do or die game in Yankee Stadium for the second year in a row.

And then there’s Garrett Crochet, who won’t be available to make a traditional start, but could be ramped up enough to give you a couple of innings out of the gate before you go bullpen game from there, mixing and matching the opponent with all your best arms and running their bench dry of platoon matchups by the late innings.

Those are just some of the factors on the table as we turn our eyes to the end of the month, but what does our OTM community think? Talk about this and whatever else you like, and as always, be good to one another!

Meet the Mets

The Mets jumped out to a big lead early and then poured it on late in their bounceback victory over the Rays to take the series. Nick Morabito’s first major league hit was a three-run double to help put the game out of reach. The team will now enjoy an off day before heading home to play the Giants.

Choose your recap:Amazin’ Avenue, Daily News, MLB.com, North Jersey, NY Post

Before the game the Mets reinstated Justin Hagenman from the IL and optioned Dylan Ross.

Jonah Tong turned his season around in the minors recently which has earned him a start with the big league club.

The team will have some hard decisions to make at the end of the season with some of their unproductive players.

The Mets will need to look inward to see what went wrong this year especially with former Mets finding success elsewhere.

Around the National League East

The Braves got a much-needed 9-0 win over the Nationals.

Ronald Acuña Jr. became the fastest player in MLB history to reach 200 home runs and 200 stolen bases.

The Marlins won 9-6 in a comeback victory against the Royals.

The Phillies were shut out 1-0 by the Diamondbacks.

James Wood returned to the lineup for the Nationals after missing 27 games with an oblique strain.

Around Major League Baseball

The playoff race is on and the strength of schedule of those in the hunt could help decide who gets to play in October.

Baseballs are flying out of the park in the minors at an historic pace but what is behind the uptick in home runs?

Brewer’s ace Jacob Misiorowski gave up five earned runs against the Cubs which ended his streak of starts allowing just three ER or less at 25.

Padres prospect Ethan Salas made his major league debut at 20 years old which made him the youngest catcher to play in a game since Ivan Rodriguez.

The Dodgers placed starter Eric Lauer on the IL with elbow inflammation after a tough start against the Cardinals.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1965, Jim Hickman became the first Met to hit three home runs in a game.

Another month of Yankees baseball is in the books, and though their situation in the American League East has changed little of late, there was plenty of good baseball to take in. With each passing game comes more moments to remember and appreciate, including those made by Yankee defenders. August was no different, as we saw plenty of web gems in the Bronx this month, so let’s take a look back at some of the best from the last month.

August 4: Lombard’s slick play starts a double play

While the defensive slump George Lombard Jr. found himself for part of August is likely the lasting memory, the month also brought plenty of highlight reel plays. Here, early in the month against the Cardinals, the rookie backhanded a sharp two hopper before throwing across his body to kick off an inning-ending double play. Despite the low points of late, we should be seeing highlights at short from Lombard Jr. for years to come.

August 5: The rookie fully extends up the middle

Speaking of which, why not take a look at another gem from Lombard Jr.? Here, just a day after our first featured play, the Yankees shortstop dove to stop a one-hopper destined for center field. Lombard Jr., after fully extending, quickly got up and threw a seed over to first base, just barely nabbing St. Louis’ JJ Wetherholt. The bad sticks out this month, but there was a lot of good to soak in from Lombard Jr. in August.

August 7: García Jr. fully over the shoulder

Another play from the first week of August, this time with Luis García Jr.’s range on display. With the go-ahead run on third base in the tenth inning for Atlanta, the Yankees first baseman was in a full sprint straight backwards, only to reach over his shoulder and snag the would-be blooper. Not exactly known for his defense, García Jr.’s clutch play saved the game in extras, putting an end to the Braves’ half of the inning. Even sweeter, it was a game the Yankees would eventually win in the bottom half of the inning.

August 18: Austin Wells slides in foul territory

Anyone with experience donning the gear can attest to how difficult a pop up can be from the catching position. Here, Austin Wells makes a difficult one look pretty straightforward. Jackson Holliday lofted a ball toward the third base dugout into foul territory. Immediately set on his intention, Wells ran full speed to the warning track, calling for the ball the entire time, before sliding on a knee to secure the out for his club. Sometimes, making the tough ones look easy can be a highlight on its own.

August 28: Bellinger preserves the lead with his arm

Perhaps more than almost anyone else, Cody Bellinger is a regular on these monthly lists. Toward the end of the month, Belli changed things up, this time making the cut with an exceptional play not with the glove, but with his arm. With the Yankees holding just a 1-0 lead in the seventh, Bellinger caught a relatively shallow fly ball, before perfectly timing his crow hop, and delivering a one-hop strike to home plate. His perfect throw nabbed the runner at home, and preserved what would remain an important 1-0 win for the Yankees at home against the Red Sox.

Yes, it’s that time. Last week saw the end of the Dominican Summer League season. In fact the Cardinals’ affiliate ended earlier than that, because they did not make the playoffs. The Florida Complex League ended well before that: though unofficial games have been played since then, games with actual recorded stats I can find online stopped in July. I like to cover the leagues as their seasons end and the less leagues I cover, the more players I can list. It will certainly include players who I probably would not bother covering if I needed to cover more teams, but I prefer that over ignoring players who I want to cover, but don’t want to make this 5,000 words. We will start with the DSL.

Dominican Summer League

Sebastian Rojas, C – 17

Stats: 32 G, 139 PAs, .357/.439/.609, 10.1 BB%, 18 K%, .252 ISO, .404 BABIP, 144 wRC+

In a shocking twist, there is another catcher. I genuinely don’t understand this. The Cardinals are growing catching prospects on trees. They just keep popping up in the DSL every year, seemingly limitless. I have followed the minor leagues for over a decade and I can tell you that it did not use to be like this. Catching prospects used to be quite rare in fact, it was the entire reason the Cardinals signed Willson Contreras. They could not find a Yadi replacement.

Jordan Beltran, RHP – 17

Stats: 12 G (GS), 23.2 IP, 34.5 K%, 18.5 BB%, 30.4 GB%, .311 BABIP, 8.37 ERA/6.45 FIP/5.46 xFIP

When hitters step up to the plate against Beltran, nearly 60% of the time, they did not make contact. That’s the good news. The bad news is he was nearly as likely to let a hitter on base for free as he was to strike them out. He had 22 walks and 8 hit by pitches. He had 41 strikeouts. He faced 119 batters all season. He was also quite bad at preventing runners from scoring once they did get on base, with a 53.7 LOB%. But he’s young and he clearly has swing-and-miss stuff and he has a better shot at becoming an elite prospect than probably anyone else on this team. I have no scouting information to back that up, just basing it off his stats.

Michael Cordero, 3B – 17

Stats: 48 G, 199 PAs, .236/.367/.404, 15.1 BB%, 25.6 K%, .168 ISO, .312 BABIP, 90 wRC+

It has been said before that sometimes how much a prospect plays can tell you more than how they actually perform. And Cordero had the most PAs on the team, and it came a season after getting over 100 PAs as a 16-year-old. Ideally, he manages a better hitting line than this of course, but the Cardinals are flashing a neon sign that he’s worth following. He also played some first base.

Juan Garcia, RHP – 18

Stats: 11 GS, 43 IP, 20.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 38.5 GB%, .309 BABIP, 4.40 ERA/4.40 FIP/4.50 xFIP

And your innings pitched leader on the DSL Cardinals is Garcia. When watching MLB pitchers, I prefer pitchers who don’t walk hitters. When following prospects though, I don’t find these kind of prospects particularly interesting. If you aren’t really striking out a lot at this level, I find it hard to put any sort of investment in the prospect.

Lucas Takahashi, OF – 17

Stats: 43 G, 163 PAs, .264/.521/.321, 33.7 BB%, 19 K%, .057 ISO, .373 BABIP, 142 wRC+

Takahashi played in 12 games last season as a 16-year-old and was basically the same exact hitter. Well this season he actually managed to have a good average. But tons of walks, no power. It is kind of fascinating to see a prospect with the rating bar for patience being 100 and the rating bar for power being 0 though. Hopefully with age comes power or all that walking won’t make much of a difference.

Juan Santillan, RHP – 19

Stats: 15 G (GS), 22.2 IP, 24.5 K%, 14.7 BB%, 30.9 GB%, .232 BABIP, 3.18 ERA/6.37 FIP/5.65 xFIP

By the way, the offensive environment of this league is all kinds of screwed up, because while I wouldn’t actually expect this to be a good pitching slash line, I feel like like the FIP numbers here are weirdly low. Santillan has the lowest ERA on the staff by a good margin.

Luis Estrella, OF – 17

Stats: 24 G, 107 PAs, .306/.439/.576, 15.9 BB%, 29.9 K%, .271 ISO, .404 BABIP, 140 wRC+

It must be easier to find hitting prospects internationally. It’s clearly easier to play in the DSL as a hitter, that is for sure. Each year there are number of notable DSL prospects worth following and they’re always hitters. 17 or younger with good stats. There seem to be around five per year.

Rafeli Moronta, RHP – 16

Stats: 12 G (GS), 25.2 IP, 23.8 K%, 21.8 BB%, 36.6 GB%, .397 BABIP, 11.92 ERA/8.44 FIP/7.56 xFIP

This is what I’m talking about. If I ever stumble on a 16 or 17-year-old pitcher, they always have the worst stats you’ve ever seen. Anyway, Moronta is the lone 16-year-old on the staff and he actually threw the 6th most innings on the team. So he’s a real prospect. But yeah hard to get excited with these stats.

Diego Consecion, 2B/SS – 18

Stats: 41 G, 158 PAs, .294/.462/.496, 23.4 BB%, 25.3 K%, .202 ISO, .423 BABIP, 138 wRC+

Consecion is doing pretty much exactly what you want an 18-year-old to do in this league. The downside is that I don’t really believe in any 18-year-old hitter performing well in this league. But he never got a chance to play at 17, so he’s done all he can do.

Daniel Gomez, RHP – 18

Stats: 11 G (10 GS), 37.1 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.5 BB%, 37.6 GB%, .288 BABIP, 4.10 ERA/5.08 FIP/4.72 xFIP

Trust me when I say that these are elite stats for a pitcher in this league. They are at least elite stats on this team. This is about as good as they get. Well, I don’t need to tell you, you see the evidence.

Misael Sanchez, OF – 17

Stats: 46 G, 183 PAs, .297/.377/.430, 11.5 BB%, 20.2 K%, .133 ISO, .364 BABIP, 97 wRC+

Sanchez is yet another player whose stats I am sharing primarily because of the amount of opportunities they got. They are very mediocre in just about every way, but the Cardinals gave him the 2nd most PAs on the team as a 17-year-old. They see something in him.

Jose Vega, RHP – 17

Stats: 11 G (10 GS), 38.2 IP, 13.8 K%, 14.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .256 BABIP, 5.82 ERA/7.34 FIP/6.73 xFIP

If I shared these stats independent of the rest of this article, you’d wonder why I bothered sharing his stats at all. But you can see how rare it is for a pitcher to have good stats at all, and you might notice the 17 next to his name and also his 10 starts. Which is certainly eye-popping. I’ll also shout out his groundball percentage, which I noticed because just about nobody else has a good one on this team. But he’ll need to miss more bats for sure.

Emanuel Luna, OF – 17

Stats: 9 G, 33 PAs, .417/.576/.875, 24.2 BB%, 18.2 K%, .458 ISO, .467 BABIP, 226 wRC+

Eduardo Mirabel, C – 18

Stats: 7 G, 26 PAs, .333/.462/.667, 15.4 BB%, 19.2 K%, .333 ISO, .400 BABIP, 162 wRC+

Two position players with the smallest sample you could possibly want. In Luna’s case, it appears that he got injured multiple times. But he hit 3 homers in his 9 games. Aside from playing DH, he was also the CF in the games he played in the field. So Luna’s exciting! Mirabel was the backup catcher whose season started at the very end of July, and that’s why he only played in seven games.

Emilio Jimenez, LHP – 17

Stats: 11 G (6 GS), 22.2 K%, 22.2 BB%, 54.2 GB%, .347 BABIP, 9.21 ERA/6.83 FIP/6.58 xFIP

I was on the fence on whether to list these stats until I noticed that he was left-handed, which I actually don’t see very often in the DSL for whatever reason. He is very wild with 12 wild pitches, 3 hit by pitches and a 22 BB%, but I also like how many balls are hit on the ground against him.

Jhon Franganten, OF – 16

Stats: 28 G, 119 PAs, .227/.361/.402, 15.1 BB%, 31.9 K%, .175 ISO, .345 BABIP, 88 wRC+

You know the drill. Look at the age. He got quite a few plate appearances as a 16-year-old and on top of that, he had a good amount of power. Obviously, he had trouble making contact and that’s why he had a below average batting line.

Brayan Amoroso, RHP – 18

Stats: 16 G, 21 IP, 23.8 K%, 20 BB%, 28.6 GB%, .370 BABIP, 8.57 ERA/7.23 FIP/6.70 xFIP

Why am I sharing his stats? Well, he’s a converted position player is why. I thought that was cool. He played the last two seasons as a 1B/OF and could never quite hit, so the Cardinals moved him to pitcher. And while he hasn’t been good, nobody is a good pitcher at this level and he managed to miss 23.8% of bats in his first try pitching. Maybe there’s something here.

Florida Complex League

Hendrick Cana, RHP – 18

Stats (DSL): 5 GS, 19 IP, 29.9 K%, 5.7 BB%, 37.5 GB%, .434 BABIP, 4.26 ERA/3.00 FIP/3.73 xFIP

CPX: 3 G (2 GS), 27.8 K%, 11.1 BB%, 30 GB%, .318 BABIP, 5.87 ERA/3.19 FIP/4.41 xFIP

Oh yeah Cana had good stats at the DSL, but midseason got promoted to the states, which you don’t usually see. He has also thrown a game at Low A, which was on the 19th of August actually. I assume that was a one-off, or I would think he’d have thrown another game since then. It was 2.2 IP of 1 run ball, albeit with 4 walks and 4 strikeouts.

Cristofer LeBron, UT – 19

Stats: 47 G, 179 PAs, .289/.365/.484, 10.1 BB%, 23.5 K%, .195 ISO, .360 BABIP, 105 wRC+

LeBron has played just about everywhere so I was puzzled as to what position to list, but I realized I could just put utility. He has played 13 games in Low A and has struggled to make contact with a 36 K%. I don’t feel the need to list his stats, because I will likely share his Low A stats later when I share stats from Palm Beach.

Jan Cabrera, RHP – 21

Stats: 12 G (6 GS), 42.2 IP, 24.7 K%, 8.1 BB%, 52.9 GB%, .370 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/4.49 FIP/4.28 xFIP

Okay so most of the pitchers with halfway decent stats at this level have been promoted to Palm Beach. Cabrera is no exception. These pitchers usually also have terrible stats at Palm Beach. Again Cabrera is no exception. He’s made 4 appearances and has a 7.90 ERA with not a lot better peripherals. I would prefer not to list those stats out and focus on the positive part of his season.

Yaxson Lucena, OF – 18

Stats: 23 G, 88 PAs, .114/.295/.157, 19.3 BB%, 15.9 K%, .043 ISO, .143 BABIP, 32 wRC+

Lucena had a very good season in the DSL with a 142 wRC+. Clearly he struggled to hit the ball with any kind of authority. His season ended in early June, I suspect for development reasons. Good thing is he’s still just 18-years-old.

Earle Zulueta, RHP – 19

Stats: 12 G (8 GS), 36.1 IP, 22.4 K%, 14.5 BB%, 40.2 GB%, .327 BABIP, 5.45 ERA/6.05 FIP/5.70 xFIP

Zulueta, aside from having an incredibly hard name to spell, had pretty good stats last season in the DSL. Obviously, he struggled in the complex league, although there were positives and he’s just 19-years-old. He also made an appearance in Palm Beach, which was not a good appearance. That was a week ago, I’ll be curious if he pitches again.

Kenley Hunter, OF – 18

Stats: 41 G, 155 PAs, .266/.390/.391, 14.2 BB%, 12.3 K%, .125 ISO, .299 BABIP, 100 wRC+

Interesting fact about Hunter is that he’s displayed more power in the complex league than he did in the DSL. In the DSL he had under a .100 ISO. So not a super exciting line, but he certainly held his own and I imagine he’ll be in Low A next season at 19-years-old.

Xavier Cruz, RHP – 20

Stats: 5 G (2 GS), 15.1 IP, 43.5 K%, 12.9 BB%, 47.4 GB%, .190 BABIP, 3.52 ERA/6.06 FIP/3.19 xFIP

Cruz has been quite unhittable this season. He’s made two multi-inning appearances at Palm Beach as well and has struck out over 40% of batters there too. He’s also getting groundballs. You don’t usually see both at these levels.

Juan Rujano, C – 18

Stats: 22 G, 77 PAs, .224/.325/.343, 9.1 BB%, 28.6 K%, .119 ISO, .302 BABIP, 68 wRC+

After a good offensive season in the DSL, Rujano struggled quite a bit with the bat in the complex leagues. But again, these players all being 18 is really making this a lot more palatable. You can take multiple seasons to adjust to a level when you are that young.

Royelny Strop, OF – 18

Stats: 50 G, 181 PAs, .228/.354/.322, 13.8 BB%, 23.2 K%, .094 ISO, .299 BABIP, 76 wRC+

Strop didn’t really hit in the DSL either, so this is not completely unexpected. He actually significantly cut his strikeout rate in fact, although he also lost some power.

And I’m going to stop there. I forgot that a lot of the good performances in the complex league get promoted to Low A, so not as many players to cover! Good for me though though, because I just watched the Cardinals come back and beat the Dodgers and I need to go to bed!

The Toronto Blue Jays beat the Cleveland Guardians last night.

It was a game that does not need to be revisited by us fans any time soon.

But at least we got to watch Austin Hedges pitch.

In all seriousness, the Guardians are still (at the time of writing), 3.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox in the division and only 1.5 games ahead of the Rangers for the final Wild Card spot. They absolutely need to pull themselves together and shake of last night’s game. With Detroit coming to town for four games, there is a great opportunity to stay in win column, but just as easily is there the opportunity to wash away all playoff hopes.

Welcome to September baseball.

Around the League

MLB Highlighted the hottest pitching prospect from each team with Caden Favors getting the nod for Cleveland.

Today’s Reflections

After some thought, I felt this was the best way to review Monday night’s game:

Tyrone Taylor, Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, Bregman, Carson Kelly, Matt Shaw, Michael Conforto, Bregman.

Team record nine home runs.

National League record 62 home runs for the month.

Clay Holmes, six innings, zero runs, five hits, two walks and eight strikeouts (don’t want to forget him).

A blow-out game with a dominant pitching performance, plus team and NL records for home runs. A very nice, neat, tidy victory in Game One over the Brewers.

Tuesday night’s game — ehhh, not so nice or neat or tidy. Matthew Boyd had the Cubs in a winnable position to pull off their second game from the Brewers. And the bullpen did their best avalanche impression.

Boyd left the game with one out in the sixth, with runners on second and third with the Cubs up, 3-1. He had given up one run while scattering seven hits and a walk with three strikeouts. It was up to Daniel Palencia to slam the door on any chance that a Brewer rally may occur.

Instead, he held the door open and waved the fellas through. Balked in a run, then gave up a two-run double and a two-run home run. Milwaukee was up, 5-3, but there was still plenty of time for the Cubs, especially following Carson Kelly’s fielder’s choice which allowed a run to score to pull within one. Michael Busch’s TOONBLAN on the play ended the inning. But the bullpen just needed to hold it together as entering the game was Ryan Jefferzahn—

Zeferzahn allowed an RBI-double to make the score, 6-4. Still in reach as the next pitcher entered the game, Caleb Thielba—

RBI-single. 7-4, in the top of the seventh. Three runs down, three innings left, there’s time. All that was needed was a great inning by just-called-up Tyler Fergus—

Two-run home run. 9-4. Game over.

First thought was maybe Palencia, coming off an injury, may not be ready for prime-time. Is anyone in the bullpen really ready? They have to be. It IS prime-time.

After the offensive explosion Monday, one hoped a little of that could continue Tuesday. The Cubs managed six hits total. In addition to Kelly’s RBI, Tyrone Taylor had a two-RBI-double and scored on an error. Five singles among five hitters amounted to nothing.

At this point, the Cubs can still win the series, but they will need consistency from all players on the roster. And a lotta luck against Misiorowski.

*Complimentary Starting Pitcher Solo Home Run*

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Tuesday’s Game Stories:

• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Key takeaways: Brewers 9, Cubs 4 . “The bullpen has been working through a recent rough patch.”

• Alex House (ClutchPoints): Cubs’ Craig Counsell says quiet part out loud about loss to Brewers. “When reviewing all the evidence, it is odd to expect more from the Cubs’ first-class defense, especially on a night when the Brewers committed two errors. And yet, Craig Counsell actually made a valid point.”

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago Cubs’ offense and defense have led the way — can the pitching staff be more consistent in September? “The Cubs’ frequency in surrendering home runs has cost them games this year and could continue to be costly in the playoffs.”

Monday’s Game Stories:

• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Cubs slug record nine homers as aggressive additions look capable of getting them over Brewers-shaped hurdle. “Whether in paying big bucks for Alex Bregman in the offseason or making aggressive moves at the trade deadline, the Cubs’ decisions to add to their roster could make the difference if they’re going to get past the Brewers.”

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago Cubs outslug Milwaukee Brewers in 17-3 blowout win to cap NL record home run month. “Alex Bregman started August without a three-homer game in his career. Amid a scorching stretch, Bregman ended the month with his lifetime total sitting at two.”

• Tyler Edmunds (OnTapSportsNet): Cubs Make Franchise History in Absolute Power Display Against Brewers. “The Cubs did not just have a good game on Monday night, they had a historic one. And it happened for the sixty-second time in August.”

Assorted Pitching Stories:

• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic {$}): Why the Cubs are sticking with Shota Imanaga — for now. “Despite Imanaga’s recent struggles, the Cubs need the lefty to regain some of his All-Star form if they hope to make a deep playoff run.”
• Casey McAleer (DaWindyCity): Shota Imanaga is giving the Cubs a problem they cannot ignore. “Imanaga’s home run issues have reached historic territory at the worst possible time for Chicago.”
• Aldo Soto (Sports Mockery): Do the Chicago Cubs Still Trust Shōta Imanaga in the Starting Rotation? “There’s an old saying in Tennessee, I know it’s in Texas, and it’s probably in Tennessee that says, “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me…you can’t get fooled again.”
• Andrew Wright (Yardbarker): One fault the could prevent the Cubs from winning the World Series. “There’s one glaring fault holding the Cubs back, and it could derail their World Series hopes.”
• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago Cubs reliever Ryan Zeferjahn looking to make the impact the team envisioned at the trade deadline. “The ups and downs can test any pitcher, and as right-hander Ryan Zeferjahn has experienced lately, those challenges can be amplified as he continues to get acclimated to his new organization.”

Assorted Hitting Stories:

• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Alex Bregman is making Red Sox fans look foolish for their Caleb Durbin victory laps. “This the Alex Bregman the Cubs paid for.”
• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Cubs call up their No. 19 prospect BJ Murray Jr. for MLB debut vs. Brewers. “With a standout showing for Triple-A Iowa, Murray put himself on the radar to make his Major League debut for a team chasing down a playoff spot.”
• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic {$}): How Pete Crow-Armstrong, on long-term Cubs deal, is exceeding Jed Hoyer’s expectations. “Crow-Armstrong has already generated 38 home runs, 91 RBIs, 100 runs scored and a .943 OPS at a premium defensive position.”
• Bennedetto Vitale (ClutchPoints): Is Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong new face of MLB? Here’s what an ex-player said. “A former MLB player shares his thoughts on Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong becoming the new face of the league.”

Assorted Stories:

• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Phillies suddenly flip NL Wild Card race that should put Cubs on notice. “Uh oh.”
• Sam Caulder (North Side Baseball): The Cubs’ Playoff Picture Is Starting to Come Into Focus. “The Cubs are firmly in the National League playoff picture, but September could change everything. With the Phillies, Diamondbacks and Padres all fighting for October, Chicago has plenty of work left to do.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): As hitters rack up ‘insane’ home-run totals, Jed Hoyer needs more consistent pitching for Cubs to ‘fare well’. “The Cubs woke up on the first day of the regular season’s final month with baseball’s best offense and its best defense. But Hoyer spoke with a desire to see more from his pitching staff as the countdown to the playoffs begins.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Next two weeks give Cubs opportunity to make NL Central push vs. Brewers, but wild-card fate in balance, too. “With all eyes on the Cubs’ seven games in 10 days against the Brewers and the possibility of a late push for the NL Central crown, the team’s fats in the wild-card race is also on the line in the regular season’s final month.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): ‘Foodie’ and World Series vet Kevin Gausman sees something cooking in Cubs: ‘The recipe is kind of there’. “Gausman racked up recommendations when he asked where to track down cinnamon rolls in Chicago, but the self-proclaimed “foodie” is an expert in more than just sweet treats, a World Series veteran who likes what he sees from these Cubs.“
• Paolo Mariano (ClutchPoints): Cubs’ Kevin Gausman shares fascinating superstition origin story. “Chicago Cubs pitcher Kevin Gausman said he was told to stop his bizarre superstition when he made it to the MLB.”

Food For Thought:

Never had the hardships of the world been transformed into such a poetic height; never had the blues plumbed such an emotional depth. Johnson took the intense loneliness, terrors and tortuous lifestyle that came with being an African-American in the South during the Great Depression, and transformed that specific and very personal experience into music of universal relevance and global reach. “You want to know how good the blues can get?” Keith Richards once asked, answering his own question: “Well, this is it.” Eric Clapton put it more plainly: “I have never found anything more deeply soulful than Robert Johnson.”

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

My introduction to baseball fandom was through an invite to an Out of the Park Baseball sim-league run by some of my father’s friends when I was in high school. I was tasked with playing as a general manager of a fictional baseball team filled with fictional baseball players, and I was competing against my father and his friends who were all running their own teams.

To me, it was just like all the numbers-heavy roleplaying games I’d played throughout my childhood where part of the point is finding ways to optimize a system. I took that mindset into this league primarily made up of older baseball fans just having fun with their friends.

My ruthlessly optimized team quickly became the most dominant in the league.

Now as an adult, I have mixed feelings about the way in which I treated roster building like a math puzzle that could be solved. I probably did a disservice to the spirit of what was, basically, a beer-and-pretzels-style game. I was a child at the time, and everyone still had a good time, so there wasn’t any real harm done.

But I do regret how I went about it.

I mention all of this to give you a sense of the lens through which I am naturally inclined to think about baseball. I have always been one for whom following the numbers and their relation to wins is my first instinct when considering team decisions.

Given all that, I am shocked to discover that Rockies closer Jordan Romano has managed to almost singlehandedly shift how I think about bullpen management.

For almost two decades, I’ve bought into the notion that the best way to organize a bullpen revolves around exploiting hitter tendencies and looking to the leverage of each plate appearance. The idea of holding to reliever roles defined by the inning in which the player is allowed to pitch has always seemed far too simplistic to me.

The question I’ve always put to folks advocating for set closers and set up roles is this: Why save your best relievers for the final two innings? Why wouldn’t you want to use your best arms in the most important situations of the game, regardless of which inning that occurs in?

Watching the Rockies have 12 different relievers blow saves over the course of the past two seasons wore down my previously held belief. The sheer number of times the Rockies lost a lead in the late innings since the start of 2025 is mind boggling when taken into the context of how few leads they’ve even had.

The 2026 Rockies bullpen, in search of a means of blowing fewer leads, has undergone a transformation throughout the summer.

In April, when the starting rotation was consistently unable to make it through the fifth inning, a collection of long relievers were the most important feature of the bullpen. By June, both the effectiveness of those long-relief appearances and the need for innings had been reduced, so the Rockies were left with an amorphous collection of role-less relievers.

Through the first half, 10 different Rockies pitchers had been awarded a save for the team, and seven had blown a save opportunity. In July, Romano joined the big league team, and the Rockies bullpen usage changed immediately.

He was handed the reigns to the ninth inning in his first game with the team. He was given a fancy closer entrance in his eighth appearance for the team. By early September, Romano had cemented himself as the Rockies most effective reliever with a 2.00 ERA backed up by a 2.43 FIP.

Romano has pitched outside the ninth inning only once in his 19 games as a Rockie.

I should hate this. I should be pushing for Romano to be used in any important situation instead of being limited to the end of the game.

In reality, I find myself simply at ease whenever the ninth rolls around and the broadcast team cuts the final commercial break in favor of showing Romano’s entrance. The memories of so many games having flipped suddenly right at the end from a Rockies lead to a Rockies loss are starting to fade. I am no longer beset by a sense of mounting dread during the final few innings of most Rockies games.

I still want the Rockies to win. To that end, I want them to make roster building and tactical decisions that give them the best chance to do so. I’m not yet convinced that using your best relievers in a rigidly defined inning is actually optimal. What I have been convinced of, however, is that the emotional experience of a lead feeling safe heading into the final inning or two is worth being a bit illogical.

I wish that the younger version of myself had read the room better instead of chasing every last advantage in my old OOTP league. I’m glad that the current version of the Rockies has set aside this one portion of the modern baseball zeitgeist in favor of providing both some spectacle and peace of mind to a fanbase that has had to endure a lot of disappointment in recent years.

Romano is thriving as the Rockies closer. Warren Schafer has to do less hand-wringing when deciding how to line up his bullpen. I get to feel excited at the end of games instead of fighting that old sense of dread. All parties involved get something nice out of the current arrangement.

Should the Rockies eschew all modern analytics and stop trying to find other ways to give them better chances to win?

Of course not.

I’m just glad that they aren’t so beholden to pursuing every single marginal advantage that they aren’t willing to stick to a “sub-optimal role” for a player like Romano when he shows them that he is incredibly comfortable in it.

Should the Rockies go ahead and sign Romano to a big multi-year extension based on his 18 innings of work for the team? Absolutely not, but… if they happen to bring him back for next year, you won’t hear me complaining given how much more pleasant he has made it to be a fan of this team.

On the Farm

Triple-A:Tacoma Rainiers 5, Albuquerque Isotopes 2

This was a close game right up until the end as the Isotopes couldn’t hold a one run lead when it counted most.

While the Rainiers would get on the board first with a one out RBI single from Stuart Fairchild in the top of the fourth it wouldn’t be long before the Isotopes struck back. Roc Riggio (No. 13 PuRP) opened up the bottom of the fifth with his first Triple-A double and was driven in by Nic Kent on a grounder that was just barely missed by Rainiers second baseman Leo Rivas. Albuquerque would take the lead in the eighth when Riggio walked with the bases loaded to score Drew Avans.

The Isotopes would enter the ninth inning with a thin one run lead after great performances from starter Jake Brooks, and relievers Valente Bellozo and Mason Green. The ninth rolled around and TJ Shook was handed the ball. Shook would load the bases on a couple of walks and single before a two-out wild pitch would allow Fairchild of the Rainiers to score and tie the game.

When the Isotopes were unable to score in the bottom of the ninth the game went to extras where Evan Shawver took over on the mound. A pair of walks to open the inning combined with the automatic runner at second loaded the bases before a Nolan Jones sacrifice fly gave the Rainiers the lead again. That would ultimately be all the runs that were needed for a Tacoma victory but they tacked on another two before it ended for good measure.

Double-A:Reading Fightin Phils 5, Hartford Yard Goats 3

The Hartford lineup couldn’t dig the team out of a whole dug by their bullpen.

Bryson Hammer started the game for the Yard Goats and, other than four walks, pitched quite well. Hammer held the Fightin Phils to a single run over five innings while striking out five. When Hammer was done he was relieved by Davison Palermo who did not have nearly as good a day at the ballpark. Palermo set down the side in order in the sixth but allowed a two-run homer to Bryson Ware in the seventh. While Palermo came back out in the eighth, he was pulled after allowing another two runs. Nathan Blasick shut the door for the remainder of the game but the damage had already been done.

The Yard Goats came out the gates in the first with a run after Andy Perez doubled and then Jared Thomas (No. 8 PuRP) and Jack O’Dowd singled to drive him in. Hartford would take the lead in the bottom of the sixth with a string of hits to load the bases before a Zach Kokoska grounder and a Cole Messina walk drove in two. Despite a single in each of the remaining innings The Yard Goats scoring would end in the sixth and they’d ultimately drop to a 62-65 record.

High-A:Everett AquaSox 14, Spokane Indians 2

The less said about this blowout the better.

After a recent string of impressive pitching performances from Jordy Vargas hopes were high for him coming into this game. Vargas could threw 96 pitches to get through four and two thirds innings and allowed seven runs on nine hits and three walks. The majority of the runs came on a Cesar Quintas double in the third and an Aiden Taurek home run in the fifth but ultimately Vargas simply allowed far too traffic on the bases to be successful. Once Vargas was pulled the string of Luke Hansel, Austin Emener, and Justin Loer would come in to fill out the rest of the game. None of them was able to get avoid allowing the AquaSox to add on to their score.

At the plate both Wilder Dalis (No. 10 PuRP) and Max Belyeu (No. 23 PuRP) hit solo home runs which was essentially the end of the positives for the Spokane lineup. In total, Spokane hitters struck out fourteen times which at least meant that that teams struggles on the mound were not the only reason the team lost.

Low-A:Fresno Grizzlies 6, San Jose Giants 2

An early flurry of hits and consistent pitching brought the Grizzlies ten games above .500.

Three straight ground outs in the first from Fresno hitters was quickly forgotten in the second. Daniel Jackson (No. 12 PuRP) and Ronny Ugarte led of the inning with back-to-back hits before Jack Natili (No. 20 PuRP) walked the bases loaded. A triple from Cort MacDonald, a sacrifice fly from Juan Martinez, and a home run from Landyn Vidourek would score five for the Grizzlies before the inning would come to an end. Natili would go on to score an insurance run in the eighth after he doubled and came home on a wild pitch.

That insurance run was ultimately unnecessary due to the solid combined pitching from the Grizzlies. Luichi Casilla and Austin Newton threw four innings apiece. While Newton’s four innings of one-run pitching was solid, it paled in comparison to Casilla’s four scoreless with seven strikeouts. Ben Davis would throw the ninth and allow another run to the Giants on an Andy Polanco RBI single but at that stage the Grizzlies were so far ahead that it never got particularly stressful.

MLB players on salary cap, CBA talks, potential lockout, more | ESPN

Statements about the CBA negotiations from those directly involved are generally pre-prepared and crafted with a specific purpose in mind. The idea of getting any individuals actual personal thoughts on the process is implausible if their name is attached to the quotes. In order to get insights from players ESPN collected quotes from a two dozen players and anonymized them all. A fascinating look into how the players side is feeling heading into this pivotal offseason.

Running the bases with Colorado Rockies Jake McCarthy | Mile High Sports

The Rockies were 23rd in the league in terms of stolen bases last season but have risen up to 14th so far in 2026. Jake McCarthy and his team leading 26 stolen bases are the clear difference for Rockies baserunning this year. Drew Creasman talks with McCarthy about the year he’s had in Colorado and his mindset on the bases. It’s worth the read for McCarthy’s quote about his throwing arm in the outfield alone.

Rockies’ Cole Carrigg can’t give fans the bird, but Colorado needs his edge to win
| Denver Post ($)

Troy Renck offers his take on the Cole Carrigg benching situation that unfolded this past week. For his part, Renck sees disciplining Carrigg as a delicate line to walk in avoiding extreme outbursts while also not smothering the intensity that he plays with. If the quotes from Schaeffer, Josh Byrne, and Carrigg himself are any indication, the Rockies organization tends to agree with Renck’s assesment.

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Carter Jensen made history last night, with his 6th leadoff homer of the season, but the Royals bullpen blew it.

However, it’s clear that rookie catcher Carter Jensen will not be of much concern. The standout KCMO product continues to shine for his hometown team.

And on Wednesday — in a 9-6 loss to the Marlins — Jensen set a single-season franchise record. In the first inning, Jensen recorded his sixth leadoff home run — a club record — off Miami Marlins starter Eury Perez. The blast traveled 414 feet into the Royals’ bullpen. It was Jensen’s 20th home run of the calendar year.

Royals Double-A prospect Hunter Owen received nice praise as being the organizations hottest pitching prospect.

A fourth-round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2023, Owen is a former member of Kansas City’s Top 30 prospects ranking, and he’s pushing himself back into prominence with a late charge at Double-A Northwest Arkansas. His 45 strikeouts over 27 innings were second-most in the Minors in August, and he racked up those K’s while posting a 1.33 ERA, .181 average-against and 1.19 WHIP over five starts. The 6-foot-5 southpaw hasn’t been big on velocity with a fastball only around 91-93 mph but managed to get whiffs across his four-pitch mix.

Noah Cameron wasn’t as sharp last night, but has been a part of something that has made Royals relievers strike more hitters out. (LOL after last night).

The bullpen session that Noah Cameron threw before his now notorious July 24 outing against Detroit — the seven scoreless innings in relief that kickstarted this successful run he’s on — was one of the best he’s ever thrown.

Luke Maile, who tries to catch as many bullpen sessions as his schedule allows, called it the best bullpen he’s caught all year. Cameron’s word for it was “ridiculous.”

Some of the Royals 2026 draft class has made their pro debut, Brian Burrows of Kings of Kauffman checks in on them.

Yirsandy Rodríguez of Royals Keep looks in on the adjustment Nate Pearson has been making in Kansas City.

Is Vladdy Jr. back?

Jacob Misiorowski had an impressive streak come to an end last night, but the Brewers still beat the Cubs.

Ronald Acuña Jr. is the fastest player in MLB history to get to 200 career stolen bases and home runs.

Who are the leaders for rookie of the year in the AL and NL as we head into the final month?

Uh, the Clippers may never be good again, after historic NBA punishment.

Ohtani has no timeline to return to the mound

Here is your song of the day: Stayin’ Alive by the Bee Gees