San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Maybe the best moment of the 2026 season was Joe Musgrove’s return to the San Diego Padres. He spent two seasons away from the sport rehabilitating his right elbow after Tommy John surgery. Musgrove re-entered at the most important time, pitching in the postseason.
Unfortunately, there was no storybook ending because the Padres were eliminated from the playoffs in the division round. But his season debut was well worth the wait.
From hometown to the big leagues
His bullpen entrance re-energized Petco Park. The Friar Faithful gave the hometown boy a resounding hero’s welcome. The love affair began when Musgrove came home to play for his childhood team.
He cemented his place in the hearts of the Friar Faithful on April 9, 2021, throwing the franchise’s first-ever no-hitter in just his second start with the Padres. But he elevated his legendary status the following year, delivering a dominant road performance to eliminate the New York Mets in the Wild Card round.
His season debut was a night Musgrove once feared might never come. Other starting pitchers have come back to pitch effectively after Tommy John surgery. However, his rehab struggles were alarming. Every time Musgrove’s return to the mound appeared imminent, an unexpected injury pushed back his return date.
The physical setbacks were the darkest days of his rehab.
Rehab setbacks clouded Musgrove’s recovery
The rehab program was one step at a time; sometimes, Musgrove needed to go backward to move forward. For him, the biggest challenge was staying patient and allowing his elbow to heal because the right-hander was tired of sitting on the sidelines.
If you have ever been sidelined with a sports injury, your return to the sport is replayed endlessly in your mind throughout rehab. Rarely do expectations align with reality.
Musgrove’s road to recovery was a grueling two-year process. It was bumpy with a few detours, but he kept his emotions in check when speaking with the press after every rehabilitation setback. It is hard to remain calm when your career is hanging in the balance.
Unsung hero: San Diego Padres
Hoping for a smooth debut, Padres manager Craig Stammen brought Musgrove in to start a clean inning rather than enter the game with runners on base. However, the appearance did not begin well; Musgrove gave up two hits and a walk before settling down to strike out two batters, preserving an 8-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of the National League Wildcard Series. He came back to pitch two innings against the eventual World Series champions, the Milwaukee Brewers, in Game 1 of the National League Division Series.
In that outing, Musgrove fanned two and hit a batter, which mirrors his style of pitching. The right-hander loves challenging hitters by throwing inside without hesitation.
Yes, Musgrove has some areas that need improvement, including becoming more consistent in repeating his delivery. This will allow him to execute his pitches better. Musgrove is looking forward to the challenge and expects to be better next season.
The Friar Faithful embraced his return, and the night could not have gone better.
Musgrove’s return to the roster was a proud moment for all.
Padres News:
He gave the Padres more than what many expected, so what grade did Lincoln Zdunich of Gaslamp Ball give reliever Yuki Matsui?
GLENDALE, AZ - NOVEMBER 03: Chase Harlan #11 of the Desert Dogs hits a home run in the seventh inning during the game between the Solar Sox and the Desert Dogs at Camelback Ranch on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
Major League Baseball on Wednesday announced rosters for the Fall Stars Game, with two Dodgers and the possibility of more for the All-Star Game for the Arizona Fall League.
Third baseman Chase Harlan and pitcher Luke Fox were named to the National League roster for the Fall Stars Game, which will be played on Sunday night at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, a 5 p.m. PT game that will be carried by MLB Network.
There is also a final vote, in which fans will be able to select one more player for both the National League and American League teams. The three choices for the final NL roster spot includes Dodgers prospects Eduardo Quintero and Charles Davalan, plus San Diego Padres infielder Justin DeCriscio. Voting runs on MLB.com through Friday at 5 p.m. PT.
You might recognize most of these names from the Baseball Prospectus top Dodgers prospect list, which was unveiled on Wednesday. Quintero is ranked the third-best prospect in the system, Davalan is seventh, and Harlan is eighth.
Harlan is hitting .276/.403/.586 with 17 RBI in 16 games for the Glendale Desert Dogs in the AFL, with five home runs, two of them coming since the calendar flipped to November. Fox has a 4.09 ERA in five appearances and 11 innings in the AFL, with 14 strikeouts (28.6-percent strikeout rate) and four walks, and no home runs allowed.
Harlan and Quintero did not play on Wednesday for Glendale, but Davalan did, continuing to log innings at second base as the outfielder tries to add to his toolbox. Davalan walked on Wednesday but was otherwise hitless in three at-bats.
Davalan on Wednesday was one of 10 hitting prospects from the Arizona Fall League analyzed by Ian Cundall at Baseball America, specifically with his move to second base in the circuit.
“He has made most of the routine plays, but his lack of range was noticeable, and his reads off the bat were a step slow,” Cundall wrote. “It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers continue to pursue this route with him heading into 2027, as it could slow down his ascension to the big leagues. With his offensive potential, however, it would maximize his value if he can develop into at least a playable second baseman in a part-time role.”
ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 4: Tim Hyers #80 of the Atlanta Braves gives a high five in the eighth inning during the game against the Miami Marlins at Truist Park on August 4, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Well, Tim Hyers has survived another season presiding over a not-particularly-good Atlanta Braves offense.
His predecessor more or less fired himself. (Or resigned, I guess, you could say.) Other coaching staff turnovers often happen when a team brings on a new manager, but that already happened and Hyers was the one holdover.
So, what will it take? A third not-particularly-inspiring offensive season? A teamwide collapse that takes Walt Weiss and his coaching staff down?
Maybe the answer, the only answer, is “Tim Hyers resigns like Kevin Seitzer did.”
Maybe the Braves are just waiting for the bottom to drop out of the aggregate. Across 2025-2026, the team is still ninth in xwOBA, though they’re 15th in wOBA / 16th in wRC+ due to underhitting their inputs a bit. (The park effect probably isn’t a particularly big deal for two-year teamwide input ranks.) They’re also just inside the top ten across those two years in runs, and nearly dead average in walk and strikeout rates.
I think the issue is the feeling of, “The Braves are fine-ish, but not as good as they could be.” So, I guess things have to get not-fine for there to be a change. If you look at the arc of team batting stats over the past two years combined, it feels amoeba-y in terms of still ranking towards the top in various metrics a la exit velocity, but no longer at pretty much the apex of MLB in all of them.
Anyway, now that the Braves have apparently opted to retain Hyers despite a middling offensive performance in 2026, it’s just interesting to think about what marker would need to change substantially for them to not do so in the future.
May 18, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman (35) runs the bases after hitting a home run against the Tampa Bay Rays in the seventh inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
May 21, 2022. That’s the day that was supposed to forever change the course of the Orioles’ franchise.
It was the day that Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’ wunderkind catcher, made his major league debut. The 24-year-old received a raucous standing ovation from the Camden Yards crowd as he took the field, and few could forget the indelible image of Rutschman doing a 360 to soak in the atmosphere before donning his mask, giving a slight nod as if to say, “Yeah, I belong here.”
Rutschman brought the kind of pedigree that few O’s rookies could ever match. He was a former #1 draft pick, only the second in Orioles history, and was the top-ranked prospect in baseball as he destroyed minor league pitching all the way up the ladder. In an O’s minor league system that had been replenished with young talent since the hiring of Mike Elias in 2018, Rutschman was the leader of the pack, the franchise cornerstone who would usher in an era of perennially contending Orioles teams. The future of Baltimore baseball was incredibly bright.
Now look at us. Four years later, the Orioles still haven’t won a postseason game in the Elias era. And Rutschman, the linchpin of the Birds’ expected renaissance, is gone, traded away to a division rival while he was on the injured list. All that’s left in Birdland is a big old mess.
It’s safe to say that the Adley Rutschman Experience in Baltimore didn’t turn out as anyone expected. Which is not to say he was a bust. In fact, the first three years of his career could hardly have been more successful in terms of his on-field production. Adley racked up 12.9 bWAR from 2022-24, the third-most in Orioles history for a player in his first three seasons (behind Gunnar Henderson’s 15.8 and Nick Markakis’ 14.0). Rutschman was AL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2022, and collected a Silver Slugger award, two All-Star selections, and two top-12 AL MVP finishes in that three-year span.
You could make a legitimate case that Adley was the best catcher in baseball at the time, or at least the one with the brightest career in front of him. And his arrival did, indeed, usher in an era of homegrown O’s prospects who brought postseason baseball back to Baltimore for two years, including a 103-win season and an AL East crown in 2023. But in both seasons, the Birds were swept out of the postseason.
As Orioles fans are all too painfully aware, though, Rutschman’s career — and the Orioles’ fortunes — took a nosedive starting in mid-2024. From June 22 to the end of the season, Rutschman batted a horrendous .192 with a .574 OPS in 77 games as the O’s limped into the playoffs. A prevailing theory among O’s fans is that Adley was battling a secret injury during that time, though Rutschman never admitted as much. Distressingly, his 2025 was even worse: oblique strains in both his legs landed him on the IL twice, and in 90 games he batted just .220/.307/.366 with nine home runs, a major reason why the Orioles collapsed to a last-place finish.
Rutschman entered the 2026 season with something to prove. A few things, actually. He needed to prove he could still hit like the Adley of 2022-23. He needed to prove he was still the Orioles’ go-to catcher even after the O’s committed an eight-year contract to Samuel Basallo in 2025. And he needed to prove he could still be the bedrock of the Birds’ return to contention.
Rutschman was unsuccessful on the last of those points and only somewhat so on the other two. He played the lion’s share behind the plate while he was on the team, starting 49 of the Orioles’ first 98 games. And his bat was the best it’s been in three years. He posted a 116 OPS+ for the Birds, batting .251 with a .764 OPS, sparking gleeful cries of “Adley is so back!” from O’s fans who’d been long awaiting his return to form. His defense, too, was vastly improved over the past couple of years, particularly when throwing out basestealers. Rutschman’s 33.9 CS% was the best mark of his career and far outpaced the MLB average of 22.7. He led all AL catchers with 21 caught stealings.
Adley’s early-season heroics earned him his third career All-Star selection, serving as the Orioles’ lone representative at the Midsummer Classic in Philadelphia on July 14. It turned out to be his third-to-last game in an O’s uniform. During the Birds’ series in Houston to start the second half, Rutschman suffered left wrist inflammation that landed him on the 10-day IL — and, though we didn’t know it at the time, wrapped up his Orioles career.
As the O’s continued to wallow in mediocrity at the Aug. 3 trade deadline, Rutschman’s name was bandied about as a trade candidate. Logically it made sense, due to the Orioles’ commitment to Basallo and Adley’s 1.5 years until free agency, but still it came as a shock to much of Birdland when Elias actually pulled the trigger on a deal. Especially shocking is that the O’s traded him to division rival Boston, of all places, for Carlos Narváez and four prospects.
And just like that, it was over. Adley Rutschman, the one-time face of the franchise, was unceremoniously jettisoned by the Birds while on the injured list, leaving so much unfinished business with the team he was supposed to lead to the promised land. He’ll always be remembered fondly by most O’s fans, and his up-and-down five-year Orioles career brought more highlights than lowlights. Ultimately, though, Adley Rutschman never quite lived up to the inordinate hype that accompanied him. And the Orioles’ early success after his arrival in the majors didn’t last.
The return package for Rutschman, which featured top Red Sox pitching prospect Anthony Eyanson and several other highly-regarded youngsters, was widely praised. Still, to see a much-ballyhooed #1 draft pick come and go from Baltimore without the O’s ever winning even one playoff game is a rather damning indictment of Elias’s vision for the organization, and if I were the owner of the team he’d have gotten his pink slip some time ago. But David Rubenstein doesn’t see it that way, and so Elias remains, albeit with a heavily restructured front office. Perhaps someday the Orioles will finally find that cornerstone player who can return to the franchise to championship glory.
As for Rutschman, he’s surely got more years ahead of him to torment the Orioles, as he did in his return to Camden Yards with the Red Sox on Sept. 3 when he smacked two home runs to beat the Birds. He’ll be under contract with Boston for 2027 before reaching free agency at age 30, and I’ll be fascinated to see what kind of contract he gets. How much will teams be willing to pay for an aging catcher whose offense has fluctuated wildly from year to year?
It’s strange to think that the Orioles will open the 2027 season without Rutschman behind the plate for the first time in five years. And it’s frustrating that his tenure with the Birds didn’t pan out like we’d dreamed of. But thanks for the memories all the same, Adley.
Earlier this week, MLB officially announced the finalists for the major end of season awards. The Phillies have some representation despite the disappointing end to their season, as Cristopher Sánchez, Don Mattingly, and Jhoan Duran all are among the nominees. Here’s the full layout of who is a finalist for what award:
NL MVP
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers
AL MVP
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
NL Cy Young Award
Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers
Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
AL Cy Young Award
Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays
Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians
Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees
NL Manager of the Year
Don Mattingly, Philadelphia Phillies
Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
Walt Weiss, Atlanta Braves
AL Manager of the Year
Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays
Chad Tracy, Boston Red Sox
Will Venable, Chicago White Sox
NL Rookie of the Year
Carson Benge, New York Mets
Sal Stewart, Cincinnati Reds
JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals
AL Rookie of the Year
Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers
Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians
Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox
NL Reliever of the Year
Jhoan Duran, Philadelphia Phillies
Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers
Mason Miller, San Diego Padres
AL Reliever of the Year
Bryan Baker, Tampa Bay Rays
Cade Smith, Cleveland Guardians
Louis Varland, Toronto Blue Jays
So, what are your predictions for the winners? Will the Phillies bring home any individual awards?
SAN DIEGO, CA - APRIL 2: A.J. Ellis #17of the San Diego Padres walks from home plate in the the game against the Colorado Rockies at PETCO Park on April 2, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Andy Hayt/San Diego Padres/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** A.J. Ellis | Getty Images
ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 28: Starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano (11) of the Colorado Rockies confers with catcher Hunter Goodman (15) during the Friday evening MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and the Colorado Rockies on August 28, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Good morning, Purple Row!
Here’s what’s going on with the Colorado Rockies and the rest of Major League Baseball.
Somewhat lost amidst the pitching coach turnover has been the impact on the Rockies catching staff. In addition to the standard duties of preparing themselves to hit and field, catchers are also tasked with building a rapport their entire pitching staff. Hunter Goodman makes the case that he feels better about his entire game when he is granted the opportunity call pitches rather than have them come from the dugout. This lends further credence to the idea that former pitching coach Alon Leichman was fired due to inability to get full team buy in for his vision of pitching strategy, which included dugout pitch suggestions.
Each year since 1996, Baseball Prospectus has published an enormous physical guide to the upcoming MLB season. This annual tome contains essays on every team as well as writeups on thousands of players. The Vogelsong awards are an attempt to recognize players that, despite not being deemed notable enough in the offseason to warrant a writeup in the annual, played exceptionally during the season. This season, BP tabbed Rockies rookie first baseman TJ Rumfield as the “clear-cut” winner of this award given his fabulous season and lack of representation in past annuals.
Rockies General Manager Josh Byrnes has brought in a former player that he worked with while with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a video advance scout. Andre Lipcius spent the 2024 season in the Dodgers minor-league season and impressed Byrnes so much that he was offered a coaching role as soon as his playing career ended this past season. The role itself is newly formed for the Rockies and will tie heavily into their game planning against the offenses of upcoming opponents.
It took less than a full day for the MLBPA to emphatically reject the latest CBA proposal from MLB. Among other considerations, the proposal maintained the leagues top priority, a salary cap, but delayed it’s implementation by a year. The union wasted little time in making it clear that they will not accept this sort of structure. Barring a miraculous turnaround in negotiations, the current CBA expires in less than a month, and the league is expected to enact a lockout on December 1.
In response to the league's revised salary cap proposal, the MLBPA says "MLB owners continue to propose blowing up the current system and replacing it with one designed to line their pockets and increase their franchise values." pic.twitter.com/D8sIgMuFcR
Another executive has been poached from the World Series champion Brewers front office. Cam Castro spent the past seven years with the Brewers in various roles starting as a minor league pitching coach and working his way all the way up to be their vice president of player development. Castro will serve as the second in command under Taylor Smith who was hired away from the Red Sox earlier this offseason to be the Athletics president of baseball operations.
The annual Fall Stars game, highlighting the best performers in the Arizona Fall League is set to take place this Sunday at 6 PM MST. The roster is always a fun assortment of the leagues best prospects alongside players that have previously had little national spotlight. This season the Rockies will be well represented with four prospects — Jared Thomas (No. 8 PuRP), Andy Perez (No. 25 PuRP), Jack O’Dowd (HM PuRP) and Fidel Ulloa — making the cut.
This past season, second baseman Michael Massey finally showed what he can truly do as a Royal.
Michael Massey entered this past Spring Training fighting for a spot on the Royals’ roster after an injury-plagued 2025 campaign, with the possibility of splitting time between second base and left field.
But even with his role uncertain, Massey had made one goal clear: He wanted to be a Gold Glove-caliber defender.
Eight months later, the 28-year-old is coming off one of his strongest Major League seasons to date. His turnaround, which included improved offensive numbers and an American League Gold Glove finalist selection, has given the Royals a different outlook at second base heading into 2027.
In case you missed it, Bobby Witt Jr. is an MVP finalist again.
As the second-youngest player ever to appear in the AFL, the 17-year-old outfielder has held his own nicely in the jump from the Dominican Summer League with a .306/.390/.444 line over 10 games for Surprise. Gomez has true five-tool potential and has seen time at all three outfield spots this fall, though the bulk of his time has come in right.
Zion Rose and Justin Lamkin also were talked about in the article above.
Where does Carter Jensen rank on long-term value for 2026 rookies?
Brian Burrows of Kings of Kauffman ponders what it would take for the Royals to get Elly De La Cruz.
BRONX, NY - SEPTEMBER 29: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees prior to the New York Yankees against the Boston Red Sox in game 1 of the American League Wild Card Playoff Series at Yankee Stadium on September 29, 2026 in the Borough of the Bronx, New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
I think it is fair to say that the Yankee fanbase (and perhaps the club itself, deep in its heart of hearts) had a certain level of trepidation to go along with excitement as Gerrit Cole’s return from Tommy John surgery approached last season. At what level was Cole going to be able to perform? He was no spring chicken anymore.
Then he stormed out of the gate with 12.2 scoreless innings in his first two starts and all was right with the universe again. Obviously, Cole was never going to pitch to a 0.00 ERA all year. But he averaged a hair under six innings per start for the remainder of the season and provided a much-needed lift to a Yankee rotation that was hit hard by injury to multiple starters.
2027 Contract Status: Under contract for $36 million
It was actually the second of Cole’s starts that really signaled to everyone that he was back. Facing Kansas City, the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner scattered four hits over 6.2 shoutout innings, issuing nary a free pass and whiffing 10 Royals hitters.
Avoiding the walk ended up being a major theme for Cole. His 1.77 BB/9 was the lowest mark of his career and bested his previous highwater mark as a Yankee by .26 BB/9. “Earn your way on” might as well have been the unofficial motto for Cole in 2026.
Unfortunately, his next start highlighted what ended up being Cole’s marquee bugaboo last season. At Yankee Stadium, Cleveland did not play GuardsBall against him. Cole surrendered three long balls in 5.1 frames and that ended up being an all-too-frequent occurrence.
The 1.56 HR/9 Cole allowed was the second-highest mark of his career, surpassed only by the COVID-truncated 2020 campaign. And it was not just home runs. When opposing hitters made contact off Cole this season, they made loud contact.
A quick glance at Cole’s Statcast contact metrics is both illustrative and horrifying. Average exit velocity (4th percentile). Barrel rate (22nd percentile). Hard-hit rate (4th percentile). A veritable house of horrors. Oh, and hitters weren’t clubbing those pitches into the ground. Cole’s ground-ball rate was in the ninth percentile. Getting hit hard in the air seems like a formula to give up a lot of long balls.
Luckily, Cole was still adept at missing bats. Although he’s no longer going to rack up 300+ strikeouts in a season as he did in Houston, Cole can still send opposing hitters back to the pine. His 70th-percentile strikeout rate was comfortably among baseball’s best. If you’re striking guys out and refusing to walk them, a lot of those aforementioned dingers should be of the solo variety.
The result, warts and all, was Cole performing like a top-of-the rotation starter in his return from injury. And for a team that features the presumptive 2026 AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler and lefty standout Max Fried, that’s all Cole needs to be moving forward … until the playoffs. Then he needs to throw eight shutout innings every start, for my mental health.
Cole has two seasons left on the contract he signed when Brian Cashman finally landed his “white whale.” Perhaps one of the biggest upsides to Cole’s 2026 is that it inspires optimism that Cole can be, at worst, a No. 3 starter in a rotation for what should be a serious contender over the next couple of years. And then we can deal with his free agency when we get there.
It’s also fascinating to think what those next couple of years could look like for Cole’s legacy. He finally notched the personal hardware he was missing when he won the Cy Young. He’s still bereft of a championship though. One (or more, let’s go back-to-back in 2027 and 2028) of those would really burnish his Cooperstown credentials.
Cole currently sits at 163 career wins. The two men ahead of him are either already retired (Justin Verlander) or likely soon to be (Max Scherzer). The closest hurler to him (Chris Sale) is two years older with an extra season worth of innings on his elbow. The nearest player to Cole who is younger than him (Michael Wacha) is one year younger and trails by 43 wins. On the right side of 30? The 29-year-old Logan Webb has 78 career wins.
With Verlander’s retirement, there are no potential 300-game winners in baseball’s short-to-medium term. Once Scherzer hangs up his spurs, there is a non-zero chance that Cole—if he can get there—could be baseball’s last 200-game winner for the foreseeable future.
That’s all in the future though. For 2027, I’d sign up in a heartbeat if Cole could replicate what he did in 2026 over a full season. The back of the napkin math for me suggests that would be roughly four-win season with innings and strikeout counts around 180-190 each. From my No. 3 starter. Yes, please.
As an aside, I’m just personally glad to have him back. Even an older Cole shows glimpses of the brilliance that made his so incandescent at his peak. Spring training can’t get here soon enough.
See more of the Yankees Roster Report Card series here.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 30: Kevin Gausman #12 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the National League Wild Card game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on September 30, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images) | Getty Images
MLB free agency is underway, though you wouldn’t know it by the (lack of) moves being made. It figures to be a month-long period before it goes on holiday while the owners and players bicker and negotiate and draw up a new CBA, and then free agency will return.
It’s a rather uninspiring free agent class this year. Lefty ace Tarik Skubal figures to make about as much money as Elon Musk spent funding losing campaigns this year, but after that? There’s a chance that no one else clears nine figures. But there are some former Giants out there, and while most of them are likely not on the team’s radar for a potential reunion, it’s still fun keeping tabs on them.
Second baseman Luis Arráez, who was an All-Star for the Giants in his lone season with the team this year, before being traded for a very nice haul at the deadline, is the highest-ranked former Giant, as he comes in at No. 11 on Clemens’ list and No. 12 on McDaniel’s. Unfortunately for Arráez, his performance really slowed down after the trade, as he posted an 82 wRC+ in nearly 200 plate appearances with the Philadelphia Phillies, after having a 121 mark in more than 450 plate appearances with the Giants. This seems to have hurt his standing around the league, with Fangraphs projecting him for a two-year, $38-million deal, and ESPN for a three-year, $54-million contract.
Next up are a pair of righties: Kevin Gausman and Tyler Mahle. They’re back-to-back on the respective lists, albeit in different orders: Gausman is No. 15 to Mahle’s No. 16 on ESPN’s list, while Fangraphs is a little less amped, with Mahle at No. 26 and Gausman No. 27.
The two publications differ quite a bit on their expectations for Gausman, who is coming off his worst ERA since 2019, though his FIP was still quite solid. Fangraphs thinks Gausman will get a modest one-year, $17-million deal, while ESPN pegs him for three years and $51 million. I’d be pretty happy with the Giants do either of those deals.
While it’s easy to see the Giants targeting Gausman this offseason, they almost certainly won’t be going after Mahle, who struggled mightily on a one-year prove-it deal with San Francisco this year, before taking off after being traded to the Atlanta Braves (who promptly changed his pitch mix). That performance in Atlanta likely earned him a lot of money this winter, and Fangraphs thinks he’ll get paid $30 million over two years, while ESPN projects $49.5 million over three years.
Utility player Mauricio Dubón figures to have his pick from a lot of interested teams, given his defensive brilliance and versatility, and quality bat. It’s hard to imagine a reunion given that the Giants don’t have a pressing need at any one position, and he didn’t exactly depart on the best terms (though it seems his issues were solely with Gabe Kapler). McDaniel, who ranks Dubón as the No. 34 free agent around, projects two years and $16 million for Dubón, while Clemens ranks him No. 45, with a predicted contract of $8 million for one season.
Pitcher Matthew Boyd also made both lists (No. 48 at Fangraphs, projected for one year and $9 million; No. 50 at ESPN, projected for one year and $10 million), if you want to consider him a former Giant.
And those are the former Giants on the top free agents lists, though there are certainly plenty of other former Giants available on the market, including Robbie Ray, Steven Okert, Taylor Rogers, Joc Pederson, Jakob Junis, and Michael Conforto.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 21: Gunnar Henderson #2 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates after hitting a home run during the sixth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 21, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Recently, there have been reports that the Baltimore Orioles are open to trading just about anyone on their roster with the exception of Pete Alonso. Which is kind of a weird player to say you’re not trading, but realize it has a lot to do with the contract. They wouldn’t get much for him. Specifically mentioned in fact was that Gunnar Henderson is on the table. He’s not on the block, but if they are blown away, they will trade him. But the title of this post does not mention Gunnar Henderson, because he is not the only potential 3B on the Orioles the Cardinals could trade for. I’ll look at every possible option.
Gunnar Henderson
Steamer projects Henderson for 4.8 WAR in 632 PAs, which seems fair to me. Last season was a down season at just 3.6 fWAR, but before that was a 4.8 fWAR season and a 7.6 fWAR season. He will be 26 next season. He is projected for a 125 wRC+. Despite not reaching that mark in the last two seasons, that is his career wRC+. Given his age, and I do feel slightly uncomfortable about doing this, I will project a slight decline in the second season, but not half a win like I normally do. So I will project his 2028 season at 4.5 WAR. He will be a free agent after 2028, so that means the Cardinals will be trading for 9.3 WAR.
What is his salary? MLB Trade Rumors projects $14.1 million in 2027. That is a rock solid estimate. His 2028 season could more accurately be called a guess. An educated one, but a guess. Using the 25/40/62 method calculated by Point of Pittsburgh, that would make his 2028 salary $22 million. I don’t think it would realistically be much lower than that, and has a good chance to be higher. But the lower it is, the more value he holds in a trade, so we’re only hurting what the Cardinals have to give up if we have a low salary. 9.3 WAR for $36.1 million is $56.9 million. Let’s call it an even $60 million in trade value.
I will be using Fangraphs updated prospect valuations, released in the middle of this most recent season. Thank you to Ben Clemens and that group for doing so, because I had been relying on former VEB site manager Craig Edwards’s methods, which predated the pandemic. So now it’s not outdated thankfully.
So right off the bat, we’re giving up Liam Doyle in this trade. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a non-negotiable, but the other option is Rainiel Rodriguez. I am for sure going with the pitcher when faced with that choice. Good news: that’s over half the value in this trade! Other good news: the rest of the value we have to make up is not another top 100 prospect. Doyle is, according to the above article, worth $45 million in trade value.
Then I’ll pick the next most obvious player to include in this trade: if we’re getting a 3B for at least the next two years, it makes sense to trade what everyone assumes is the heir apparent to the position, Jesus Baez. I’m not exactly sure what to label Jesus Baez as far as future value goes. I don’t think he’s a 50 FV guy. I’m not sure if he’s 45+ or 45. It almost doesn’t matter, because 45 is worth $14.5 million. That’s pretty much the trade.
Because we are such a good fit, overpaying for Henderson should be a lot easier than for most teams. Our overpaying will come in the form of a catcher, because their backup catcher had a 33 wRC+ last season – not a typo – and they really don’t have any noteworthy catching prospects. Cardinals need to trade their catchers anyway. This is easy. They can take either Pedro Pages or Jimmy Crooks. I would assume Crooks, because he has offensive potential. But they might prefer Pages’ defense and might prefer a great defender behind offense-first Samuel Basallo. Crooks has to be worth the equivalent of a 45 FV prospect, despite his underwhelming MLB performance. He will be 25 and had a fantastic season in AAA.
So this is, by the numbers, a pretty decent overpay. It doesn’t feel like it because Crooks feels like spare parts and the loss of Baez is easy to take when he doesn’t have anywhere to play, making it feel like Doyle is the only real loss. Imagine if Baez was a surefire SS and Masyn Winn didn’t exist, and the Cardinals had Pedro Pages and Jimmy Crooks and nobody else at catcher. This would feel like too much right? A function of how well these two teams match up is why it feels like a no brainer trade. This if course does not mean the Orioles accept this.
Jesus Baez, Jimmy Crooks, and Liam Doyle for Gunnar Henderson
Jordan Westburg
Oh man do I wish I had ZiPS for Westburg. Westburg missed the entire 2026 season to Tommy John surgery and no he is not a pitcher. I have no idea what to project him for. Steamer has him with 421 PAs, which would be generous in my mind. He missed last year, had 352 PAs in 2025, and 447 PAs in 2024. In those 421 PAs, they project a 116 wRC+ and 1.8 WAR. I would be shocked if ZiPS has this good of a projection personally.
Westburg is 27 though, and to make up for what I feel is an optimistic projection given his injury history, knocking off half a win should even things out. So while Steamer has a 1.8 WAR projection, I expect ZiPS to be lower, but more stable if that makes sense. By the way I’m not even low on Westburg, I’m just looking at his history and Steamer almost pretends he didn’t miss 2026. His projection makes sense if this was for the 2026 season. Anyway, that is 3.9 WAR across three seasons.
Again MLB Trade Rumors provides us with his salary next season. It’s only $1.5 million. Past this upcoming season, that number could vary wildly. Showing health, regardless of how the season goes would be a big deal. If he bounces back, I think his second arbitration season would be about $5 million and his third arbitration year would be worth $10 million. But this is highly variable based on his performance. That’s 3.9 WAR for $16.5 million in three seasons. That would be $22.5 million in trade value.
I have two proposals, one of them is reflected by Westburg being currently somewhat of an unknown due to injury. Come on down Brandon Clarke! I’m not sure if he’s a 45+ FV prospect or a 45 FV prospect at this point. If the Orioles consider him the former, I’m teaming him with… Jimmy Crooks again yes. If the Orioles aren’t interested in a catcher, a trade with them makes much less sense frankly.
Now, if Clarke’s status as a 45+ FV prospect have ended and he is in fact now a 45 FV, I’m switching the pitcher to Daniel Eagen. I feel fairly comfortable saying he’s 45+ FV. Pairing him with Crooks is too much value however. Let’s take advantage of that. Let’s improve the bullpen. 32-year-old Rico Garcia had a good season last year, and has an okay projection. That should roughly make up the difference. Garcia has four years of team control, but is also 32 and a reliever.
Brandon Clarke and Jimmy Crooks for Jordan Westburg
OR
Daniel Eagen and Jimmy Crooks for Jordan Westburg and Rico Garcia
Coby Mayo
I’m going to cheat on these last few guys. I can calculate prospects. I can calculate arb eligible guys where I have an idea of their future salary. But the pre-arb guys who aren’t really that established? No idea. If you did a strict WAR and then salary, you’d probably end up with more trade value than they actually had. Not to mention the difficult with projections past this season. So I’m going to use a site I’m not actually a big believer in, but they’ve done more research into this than I have, and I trust their number for pre-arb guys more than whatever number I can come up with. I’m using Baseball Trade Values.
Accordingly, Mayo has $15.7 million in trade value according to their site. Great. (If you want to compare it to the previous two guys, they think I way overstepped with just $46.8 million for Henderson, but I came pretty damn close to Westburg, who has $25.3 million)
The future value prospect numbers being really outdated is making this very inconvenient. Also, I’m learning I don’t want really want Mayo. I can’t come up with a pitcher I’m willing to part with. You know what? I got it. You guys won’t like it. I’m cashing my chips on Cooper Hjerpe in this trade. And then the second piece could be either Jimmy Crooks or Pedro Pages, depending on how much value Hjerpe actually has. In theory, Crooks is too much, but I could see Hjerpe not really having much value. Unless it’s Mayo for Crooks straight up, I don’t really want Mayo. If we have to give up anything but a blocked prospect, I’m passing.
Cooper Hjerpe and Pedro Pages (or Jimmy Crooks) for Coby Mayo
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
BTV is not a believer in this dude’s season. They value him at just $6.1 million. And to be fair, it is a grand total of 218 PAs following two absolutely dreadful seasons. And though he had a good OAA last season, the scouting for his defense is not positive and he’s been a below average 1B in his career, so to say I don’t trust that 3B defense would be an understatement. But it must be said he was quite good in a small sample (+3 in 411 innings). But all this does explain his low trade value.
I actually think I have a fair trade. CES is not necessarily the safest bet, so in response to that, I will give them a prospect that is not exactly the safest bet. Some of you will not like this. I’m sending Tekoah Roby in this trade. By Fangraphs, CES is worth roughly a 40+ FV pitching prospect. I think that describes Roby with his injury history. If you are not at all a believer in Roby’s health, this might be a good trade.
Tekoah Roby for Christian-Encarnacion Strand
Blaze Alexander
According to BTV, Alexander has $12.8 million in trade value. I’m going to be lazy and do a very similar trade. For Mayo, I suggested Hjerpe and either Crooks or Pages depending on how valuable Hjerpe was. Well, I’m going to do Hjerpe with Pages for this one. Alexander is worth less than Mayo by a few million, which more firmly puts him with what Hjerpe might be worth. Pages isn’t worth a whole lot, but is worth something. I think this is fair.
Cooper Hjerpe and Pedro Pages for Blaze Alexander
Conclusion
The Cardinals and Orioles are great fits, but it is predicated a lot on the Orioles actually being interested in a catcher. They may very well be fine rolling with Basallo and the random backup of the year. That was the Cardinals strategy with Yadier Molina. If they don’t want a catcher, the fit is not quite as clean. There’s also a good argument to be made that there’s not a whole lot of point to making some of these trades if it’s not Henderson and maybe Westburg. But I don’t know why the Orioles would trade Westburg right now, after a missing season, at his lowest value.
Blaze Alexander’s profile is more suggestive of a bench player, which is why he’s already been traded once. Both CES and Mayo have rather significant swing-and-miss in their game. And neither is expected to be all that good defensively, despite CES’ positive numbers in 2026. We kind of already have the unproven version of these players in Blaze Jordan. So I could see the Cardinals being uninterested in giving up value to players who are still kind of unreliable with not a large sample of proven success. They are only marginally more proven than Jordan. I kind of want Westburg, but again if I’m the Orioles, there’s no way I’m trading him after a lost season.
Book Corner
I mentioned I was reading a short book and a long book at the moment. The short book I’m reading is Playing Hard Ball: A Kent County Cricketeer’s Journey into Big League Baseball. The title is almost longer than the book. The author is credited as E.T. Smith, but it’s Ed Smith if you google him. Not real sure why his author name is E.T. when he’s not exactly hiding his identity. I do not remember why I got this book or when I got it, but it very well could have been on the recommendation of a VEB commentator honestly.
This was interesting, but I don’t really think I was the audience for this weirdly. This book feels made for cricket fans more than baseball fans honestly. I didn’t understand anything he was talking about whenever he was talking about cricket. And he would get into detail on specific matches, and I may as well have been attempting to read French.
And the blurbs on the back of the book suggest I am probably right about that. Not what they say, but their source: Sunday Telegraph, Daily Mail, Wisden Cricket Monthly, Daily Telegraph, and The Cricketer. I do believe these are all based in England. It was released in 2002 and he became a Mets fan, so it references the Subway series, 9/11, and the Yankees dominance.
You don’t have to be a cricket fan to like this book, but it probably helped if you were a Mets or Yankees fan or if I actually read this back in 2002, because this is pre-Moneyball, so it’s not like the baseball analysis or stats used are the greatest, not that I would expect them to be. The author clearly fell in love with baseball though and that does come across. He references Ball Four a few times, Ted Williams, has an extended section comparing Babe Ruth to the Babe Ruth of cricket, Sir Donald Bradman.
But whenever he started talking about cricket, I just could not follow what he was talking about. At all. I think you need a rudimentary understanding of cricket for this book. He tries to go through the basics of baseball to help non-baseball readers understand and either this book was really not meant for Americans and he just assumed you knew cricket or he is too ingrained in the game of cricket to realize that he didn’t do all that good a job of describing cricket to non-cricket fans.
Anyway, definitely interesting for time and place, seeing a skeptical cricket fan fall in love with baseball, and a newcomer’s perspective on baseball as a sport. I do think this was written to an audience of people who are not baseball fans more than people who are baseball fans though.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 27: Adley Rutschman #31 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Tropicana Field on September 27, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Note: this column assumes there will be a 2027 MLB season. Please disregard in advance should it not come to pass. Thank you.
I was more than a little surprised at how negative the Over the Monster staff was in our recent assessment of 2026. “No, it was not a success. Of course it wasn’t,” wrote Fitzy. “HELL NO!!!” wrote Matthew Gross. Maura McGurk was more terse, but same deal. Only Mike Carlucci and I thought otherwise. To each their own, of course, but over at DraftKings, the Red Sox have the 4th best odds for 2027, at +1100. So what gives? What’s the disconnect between what the world thinks of us and what we think of ourselves?
Several reasons spring to mind. The first 18 are the runs the Yankees scored against the Sox in the two-game walkover disguised as a playoff series, which left a bitter aftertaste to an otherwise exciting year. That’s understandable. The 19th reason is that the Red Sox likely get slightly inflated odds because of their large fanbase, which is why the Mets come in at +2200, same as the Rays. But that wouldn’t explain why the Mariners, of all teams, are in between them at +1800, tied with the Phillies. The 20th and final reason, tho is ye old Occam’s Razor: the Red Sox have good odds to win the title because they are a good team.
For all the hay that’s been made and will continue to be about the Dodgers supposedly “ruining” baseball, they obviously have done no such thing and it’s embarrassing to claim they have. They won back-to-back World Series titles, yes, but the second was by the absolute skin of their teeth, and this year they were swept to hell by the eventual World Series champion Brewers — who, like their Tampa Bay counterpart, built a team that got better and better and better as the years went by before walking to the title.
In the absence of a superteam (a concept that really doesn’t even apply in the playoffs), this is usually how it happens. Time will tell if the Red Sox will reach the mountaintop, but right now they’re on the right trail. While you’d be right to expect some pitching regression and wrong to expect them to win 120 games in July, the offense could easily stand to take a few steps forward at a time where only a few steps forward are needed. Craig Breslow hasn’t been shy about adding important pieces or shedding prospects who would have been needlessly considered sacrosanct under the previous administration. It’s a long season, but the offseason ain’t that short either.
The real question hanging over the winter is whether or not the hot stove really gets going, given the labor issues in play. Either way, I think the Sox are in a good spot. If it doesn’t heat up, their natural progression tends toward a 90-win season more than an 80-win one. If it does get cooking, the Sox are in a great position to make moves, with a still stacked-enough farm system to get deals done with any of the many teams happy to operate as high-value concessionaires rather than functioning baseball teams.
Buck up, friends. We may have been pounded into oblivion by the Yankees, but that was pretty much the end of their season as well. If that’s what got them to bring back Aaron Boone again, you could even argue it was worth our sacrifice. Either way, here’s hoping, and truly believing, that we won’t have to run the same calculus a third year running. And as the oddsmakers show, you don’t have to take my word for it.
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 29: Philadelphia president Dave Dombrowski reacts prior to the start of the Philadelphia Phillies versus the Atlanta Braves in game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series on September 29th, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
You may not have noticed, but MLB free agency actually started on Tuesday. Usually, that doesn’t mean much considering the glacial pace of a normal offseason. But with the lockout looming on December 1st, maybe we’ll actually see a flutter of activity soon much like we did before the last lockout in the winter of 2021-2022. One can certainly hope.
Cristopher Sánchez may have been a Cy Young finalist again this year, but his sinker wasn’t quite as sharp on the whole as it was in 2025. What can he do to remedy that problem?
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 15: Shane Baz #34 of the Baltimore Orioles in action during the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 15, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Hello, friends.
There are now 139 days remaining until the next scheduled Orioles game. Everyone has their own different level of pessimism for how likely it is that MLB’s owner-imposed lockout of the players will end by then in order to allow the season to begin.
How you feel about the Orioles rotation minus Trevor Rogers probably has a lot to do with how much urgency you think the team should have this offseason. The team had a “could have been worse” rotation in 2026 even with Rogers being as good as he was from about June on to the end of the season, finishing 17th in MLB with a 4.24 ERA. Probably half a run separated the Orioles from an actually good rotation. Some of that could have been helped with better defense. Some of it could have been helped by better pitching.
As things look right now, the rotation is lined up with Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Brandon Young, Cade Povich, and Trey Gibson. That’s what is on FanGraphs projected depth chart and I think it seems like a good enough guess. That’s a bad rotation picture unless Povich or Gibson pulls off a Young-like turnaround into 2027, and it’s not even really guaranteed that Young stays turned around.
The needs are pretty much the same as they were going into last offseason. They need to reinforce the front end and they need to reinforce the back end too. Last year, the front end reinforcement was trading for Baz; with a 4.11 ERA, he was no help at the front end. The back end reinforcements were Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin. The Orioles lost Eflin for the season in the middle of his first start, which isn’t Mike Elias’s fault but that bad luck still hurt the team. Bassitt’s 4.59 ERA didn’t help the back end too much in the aggregate, though he was better after returning from back surgery.
They’re going to have to do better about it this year. Does Elias have it in him? If he has it in him, will he be able to show it before the lockout hits in December? These are the questions that will be lingering all month until they are either addressed in some affirmative way or the lockout hits and shows the answer is no. Given his track record, I don’t blame anybody for feeling anxious about it.
Today’s round of links from the last couple of days is very, very interested in what the Orioles are going to do about the rotation. There are no answers yet! Only possibilities, some of which you might think sound great and others you might dread instead.
Orioles stuff you might have missed
We are in the time of year where daily news or rumors are not guaranteed and if you diligently read the Bird Droppings daily, you may see repeats. Friends, it’s not going to get better in December.
Improving Orioles rotation is ‘absolutely on the menu’ (Orioles.com) We’ve heard this story before. Sometimes the effort in acquiring long-term pieces did not seem to be there. Other times, the results have not quite been there when the effort was put in.
Today in 1976, Jim Palmer was named the AL Cy Young for the second year in a row and third time in his career. This followed a season where he posted a 2.51 ERA across 315 innings. I know, 315! It proved to be the final win of a Cy for his career, though he had two runner-ups and a third place still to come.
In 1997, Davey Johnson was named the AL Manager of the Year, and also resigned as manager of the Orioles. In retrospect, this marked the start of a long, bad era of Orioles baseball.
There are a pair of former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 2019 pitcher Josh Lucas, and 2004-06 catcher Javy López.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: union leader Eugene V. Debs (1855), King of the Cowboys Roy Rogers (1911), musician Art Garfunkel (1941), Gundam creator Yoshiyuki Tomino (1941), and DJ Flume (1991).
On this day in history…
In 1605, the infamous Gunpowder Plot was discovered and thwarted as Guy Fawkes was arrested underneath the Houses of Parliament. He had been intending to blow up the king, James I.
In 1757, Prussia’s Frederick the Great won one of his great victories of the Seven Years War, defeating a combined French-Austrian force while outnumbered close to 2-1 in the Battle of Rossbach.
In 1872, women’s suffrage activist Susan B. Anthony cast a ballot. This was against the law and she was fined $100. In today’s money, that’s a fine of over $2,700. Women’s suffrage had to wait decades longer.
In 1940, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was re-elected to a third term in office, making him the first and still only president to ever be elected to more than two terms. The 22nd Amendment, ratified in 1951, prevents this from happening again.
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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on November 5. Have a safe Thursday.
Major League Baseball’s unpopular winter sequel – Lockout II: The Reckoning – has thrown much of its offseason machinations into flux. Not only must teams conduct a significant amount of their business before the industry’s expected shutdown Dec. 1 but do so uncertain what economic system will prevail upon its restart.
The notion of a salary cap – even with a year to ease it in – would greatly alter the game’s economic structure. Chasing free agents comes with some uncertainty.
But what about trades?
Great question. Even a swap that’s decidedly not cash-neutral shouldn’t hamper a team’s flexibility years out. And with most teams committing to landing in a contending-but-not-dominant position – 24 of 30 teams finished with at least 75 wins – filling needs by taking someone else’s ill-fitting part fits that mold.
With the offseason kicking into gear with next week’s general manager’s meetings but less than a month before the lockout, a breakdown of eight American League players who might fit in a trade package this winter:
He’s a two-time All-Star with five seasons of 20 to 31 home runs. Yet Paredes, who turns 28 in February, may find himself on his fifth team in seven seasons come 2027. Such is life for an infielder with power but perhaps not the greatest defensive chops. And presuming Carlos Correa come back healthy, the Astros have a little glut on the infield.
Paredes is coming off possibly his best all-around season, hitting 25 homers and raising his OBP to a career-high .360. His strikeout rate also fell to a career-low 13.4%.
The Astros picked up his $13.55 million club option for 2027, which likely represents a savings on what he’d earn in his final year of salary arbitration. Paredes is eligible for free agency after this season.
Seems like the Mariners couldn’t get rid of their starting pitching glut if they tried. While last year brought a trade of Luis Castillo, it also saw the full emergence of right-hander Emerson Hancock, who made 25 starts and led the rotation with a 3.57 ERA.
Miller, 28, was limited to 21 starts after an oblique injury, got off to an excellent start and then faded a bit in the second-half wall, pitching to a 4.17 ERA and 4.41 FIP. And rookie Kade Anderson made a late-season debut and should be ready for a full season.
It’s true – you can never have too much starting pitching. The Mariners, though, are perpetually starved for offense and this winter is no different. Miller is entering the second of four arbitration years, is estimated by MLB Trade Rumors to earn just $3.9 million in 2027 and then two more seasons of club control. He’s two years removed from a 180-inning season in which he posted a 2.94 ERA.
A solid trade chip, a club with needs.
Griffin Jax, RHP, Rays
Simply a decent pitcher entering his final season before free agency on a club that tends to maximize its assets before they can walk.
On one hand, it’d be a drag for the Rays to spin off Jax after nurturing him thoughtfully this year from a reliever to a guy who made 23 starts, consumed 112 innings and started the lone World Series game Tampa Bay won. The club’s also losing All-Star Nick Martinez to free agency. And maybe the new ownership group would prefer keeping the good vibes going from their solid AL pennant club.
Yet the Rays have probably already ID’d their next Martinez, their next Jax. And the original could fetch a decent return while helping one of many pitching-starved clubs out there.
Jo Adell, OF/DH, Guardians
Now this would be kind of a bummer.
Adell got a taste of the high life in Cleveland, playing a key role on their AL Central champion and league runner-up squad after years spent in playoff-less Anaheim. He’s currently slated to get a season’s worth of at-bats at DH and probably the outfield.
But like the Rays, the Guardians stay fluid. Adell’s at-bats could conceivably go to rookie Petey Halpin, with the DH spot passing through a handful of players. And it should be noted that franchise stalwart Steven Kwan, like Adell, will be a free agent after this year; Kwan has been on the trade block before and could be placed there again.
Yet Kwan is coming off a 5.3-WAR season and more integral to the Guardians’ whole thing. They’ll keep most of it together.
Zach Neto, SS, Angels
Crazy thing about the Angels: They do all they can to remain irrelevant yet some really good players are racking up service time while nobody’s looking. Enter Neto, who has nearly four years of service and enters his first of three seasons before free agency.
The Angels’ mini-teardown netted them shortstop prospect Arjun Nimmala, who has looked terrific since arriving from Toronto in the Jose Soriano deal. Neto slammed 27 homers last year and posted a 5.2-WAR season. Perhaps he’d be better suited at second or third base than shortstop, but he’d make a good team great adding his bat to the middle infield.
Would the in-limbo Angels pull the trigger? Perhaps once the lockout is over with, Stan Kroenke controls the team and a GM is in place. But Neto would be in demand sooner, for certain.
Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles
A handful of infield injuries finally allowed Mayo the runway to work through the swing-and-miss woes a 24-year-old, 6-5 power hitter might go through. The results were enticing: 24 home runs in 412 at-bats, 16 of them off lefties, against whom he posted a 1.105 OPS.
Baltimore, though, may again have an infield glut, with Jordan Westburg coming back from Tommy John surgery and Pete Alonso locked in at first base for four more seasons. It’d be dicey giving up five years of control of a potentially dominant power hitter.
Yet perhaps Mayo’s true ceiling is platoon DH, or something like that. And the club needs sock in the outfield and some pitching help. An interesting potential challenge trade.
Luis García Jr., INF, Yankees
Garcia answered the call when the Yankees put out an APB for bats at the trade deadline with Aaron Judge shelved. His OPS dipped from .873 with Washington to .736 in 43 games with the Yankees, but it all added up to a career-high 30-homer season for a guy who doesn’t turn 27 until May.
But the Yankees have an entire winter – plus however long the lockout lasts – to reconstruct their roster. By the letter of the law, they’ll lose contact with Judge on Dec. 1 as he recovers from a calf strain that knocked him out of the playoffs.
Yet if all goes well, Judge is back in right field, perhaps Giancarlo Stanton is healthy, perhaps Ben Rice scoots back over to first base, with Paul Goldschmidt re-signed as a right-handed pairing with Rice. That would make García relatively redundant, and it’s not like he set the Bronx ablaze with his two-month cameo.
No, perhaps he can be spun off for a team needing a first- or second baseman. García has just one more year before free agency so the return wouldn’t be huge. But he could help patch some roster holes for a club losing relievers David Bednar and Paul Blackburn, infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. and center fielder Trent Grisham to free agency.
Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox
He’s kind of been a walking trade rumor the past couple years, but this could be the time he goes. Duran, 30, is projected to earn $11.1 million through arbitration, and is one of 17 (gulp) arbitration-eligible Red Sox. Sure, not all of them will be tendered contracts, but it’s nonetheless quite a run on John Henry’s private equity stash.
Duran’s offense has taken an extreme haircut since he led the majors in doubles (48) and triples (14) and won All-Star Game MVP in 2024. He posted an .834 OPS that year, but it’s since tumbled to .774 and .627, his 76 adjusted mark last year well below league average.
Yet Duran is one of the game’s best baserunners and still ranks well in outs above average. He’s got two years before free agency, and an acquiring team could simply non-tender him if his bat doesn’t pick up in 2027.
Certainly not a blockbuster in the offing, but an intriguing figure to ponder.
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