Category: MLB

If you feel a breeze, don’t doubt yourself, it’s MLB Draft week once again. Since 2021, the MLB Draft has taken place over the All-Star Break, in an effort to combine the enhance the prestige of the event and turn the week into a baseball bonanza. It’s a move that has been lamented by scouts and front office folks, who note that the experience creates a cartoonishly packed weekend of work, however the fan experience may be more pleasantly what MLB is hoping for. This year, there are some small tweaks to make note of, and here at Lookout Landing we’ll have draft coverage rolling out all week in the leadup to Saturday and Sunday.

The majority of MLB’s All-Star Week this year will be broadcast by NBC, as well as simultaneously livestreamed by their Peacock service/app. However, the first broadcast event is the Historically Black College/University Swingman Classic Game on Friday, July 10th at 4 PM PT/7 PM ET on MLB Network and MLB.com.

When/Where is the MLB Draft, & how do we watch it?

The 2026 MLB Draft will occur Saturday, July 11th and Sunday, July 12th, in Philadelphia, PA as part of the All-Star Week festivities. Coverage will begin on NBC and Peacock at 10 AM PT/1 PM ET on Saturday, with rounds 1-3 being completed on day one. On Sunday, NBC/Peacock will pick things back up at 10 AM PT/1 PM ET again for rounds 4-20. Both days will also have live coverage on MLB Network and MLB.com

The Saturday outset is a tweak from years past, perhaps a slight genuflection to the requests of the clubs, moving the draft’s outset to a day slightly less packed with festivities. The MLB Futures Game will occur on Sunday, starting at 9 AM PT/12 PM ET, also to be broadcast on NBC. While it is a seven inning game, it may overlap with draft coverage, which seems likely to be pushed to MLB Network and MLB.com but is not entirely clear based on MLB’s website.

When do the Seattle Mariners pick?

The Seattle Mariners have the 24th pick in the draft, second-to-last in the “1st round” ahead of only the Milwaukee Brewers due to their reaching of the ALCS a season ago. The Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Yankees all had their first picks dropped 10 spots as a “fine” of sorts for exceeding the second payroll tax threshold (also known as the “Competitive Balance Tax”).

Their second round selection is the 65th overall pick, and their third pick (the final to be made on Saturday) will be the 101st selection. Seattle also had a pick given to them due to their eligibility for receiving “Competitive Balance Picks” in Round B, just after the second round, however they dealt that 68th overall selection to the St. Louis Cardinals as part of the Brendan Donovan trade this winter.

After picking 129th in the fourth round, Seattle picks every 30 selections afterwards for the remaining rounds as scheduled, save for rounds five and six wherein the Dodgers forfeited their picks as compensation for signing players who’d declined a qualifying offer.

What’s Seattle’s bonus pool situation?

Pretty small. Seattle has only $8,218,200 they are allowed to spend on signing bonuses for their draftees this year, 24th-most in MLB. The Pirates and Rays both are allowed to utilize over $19 million, by contrast. A season ago, Seattle selected LHP Kade Anderson 3rd overall and inked him to a $8.8 million bonus by himself. That was possible, of course, because after missing the playoffs in 2024, Seattle famously sprung up the lottery ladder to the third overall pick despite being projected for 15th, in the fairly new lottery system MLB has employed as part of their anti-tanking efforts. This, plus ineligibility to pick in the top-10 in consecutive years (or more than two consecutive years, depending on the market size of the club) have seemed to be savvy and successful disincentives towards active non-competitiveness instituted by MLB. You’ll see some less-favorable sentiments about draft-related proposals by MLB later on here, so it is important to note that they seem to have absolutely gotten this right.

Bonus pools are determined by draft slots in the first 10 rounds, and Seattle can save any funds unused initially to splash on players throughout the entire draft, so long as they sign those initial players. Seattle has nailed a number of major picks in recent years, and should be able to snag some impressive talents, but the realistic outcome is a less immediately eye-popping set of selections than some recent years.

Who is eligible to be drafted?

Anyone residing in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, or other U.S. territories who has never signed a previous MLB/MiLB contract and is either

• A high school graduate, OR
• Attending a junior/community college, OR
• Attending a four-year college/university which they have attended for at least three years/have reached their 21st birthday, whichever occurs first

The draft does not include players born and raised anywhere else in the world, wherein players are eligible to sign anytime after their 16th birthday to a contract with any big league club from each team’s capped bonus pool (players like Julio Rodríguez, Shohei Ohtani, or Yordan Alvarez), or as a true free agent once they are 25 years of age (almost exclusively established stars in countries with robust internal summer baseball leagues like Japan, Cuba, and South Korea, e.g. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jose Abreu, or Jung Hoo Lee).

There have also been recent changes to the draft’s rounds, with more dreamed of by MLB’s ownership groups. If you do not care for a bit of analysis on those suggestions, feel free to skim to the next headline.

Since MLB owners halved the number of rounds in the draft in recent competitive bargaining agreements, the draft has dropped from three days to two, and to 20 rounds from 40 since 2019 (and from 50 to 40 in 2011). The draft is once again a wish list item to warp for owners, who recently fantasized publicly with a dream of dropping to just 12 rounds, excluding high schoolers entirely (the players with the most leverage to negotiate their signing bonuses) and necessitating a higher age of eligibility for drafting to 20 years of age. While this could open up a batch of additional college players to eligibility, the intent is overwhelmingly a labor cost reduction. Players who debut earlier reach free agency earlier, and therefore can negotiate with more than just the team that claimed their right to work for the coming decade on draft day. From a pure on-field perspective, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodríguez would have seen their careers quite differently, while Colt Emerson and Ryan Sloan would still be on campus. Part of baseball’s distinct joy is in its many avenues to plausibility, and it would be nice not to see those curtailed.

What’s coming next on LL?

Plenty! Check out some of our draft profiles if you’ve not already, and keep an eye out each day for a roundup of coverage around the scouting world, our own mock draft of the first 50 or so picks, some deep dives from Max, Kate, and myself, live draft coverage this weekend, and more!

There’s no denying that we’ll know a lot more about the St. Louis Cardinals by the time this week is complete. 5 games over the next 4 days will be played at Busch Stadium against the NL Central division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals have momentum, but on paper the next 4 days look difficult for St. Louis.

Let’s start with the pitching matchups which feature some questions for how St. Louis will lineup the rotation:

Monday, July 6 – Dustin May – 5-6, 4.80 ERA, 78 SO vs Shane Drohan – 3-2, 3.12 ERA, 59 SO

Tuesday, July 7 (day game) – Cardinals starter unannounced vs Jacob Misiorowski – 9-4, 1.47 ERA, 156 SO

Tuesday, July 7 (night game) Starters unannounced for both teams

Wednesday, July 8 – Cardinals starter unannounced vs Kyle Harrison – 8-1, 2.82 ERA, 99 SO

Thursday, July 9 – Starters unannounced for both teams

Monday night’s starter Shane Drohan is 1-1 in his last 7 games. His 3 most recent starts have been no decisions. In his last start, Shane threw 5 2/3 innings on July 1 against the Reds giving up 2 runs on 6 hits with 7 strikeouts and 1 walk. What can I saw about Tuesday’s starter Jacob Misiorowski that you don’t already know? He’s 5-2 in his last 7 games including that infamous 105.5 mph record-breaking fastball. His most recent 3 games are interesting, though, as he’s lost 2 of them, but those were instances of lack of run support. Jacob’s last start on July 2 against the Reds was a loss, but he struck out 10 and only gave up 1 earned run. Wednesday’s starter, Kyle Harrison, is having a great season as he’s 8-1 with just a 2.82 ERA. The Milwaukee Brewers currently lead the league in team ERA.

The Brewers are not without big injury issues as Brandon Woodruff exited the team’s loss on the 4th of July in the 4th inning and was reportedly headed to the 15-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation. The Brewers injured list is full of pitchers.

Entering Monday night’s game, the Milwaukee Brewers lead the St. Louis Cardinals by 7 games. They have won 6 of their last 10 while the Cardinals are 5-5 over the same period. The Brewers team leaders are as follows:

Batting Average – William Contreras – .295

Home Runs – Jake Bauers – 15

RBI’s – Jake Bauers – 52

OPB – Jake Bauers – .365

Hits – William Contreras – 95

How successful or not the St. Louis Cardinals are during the upcoming homestand vs the Brewers and Braves prior to the All-Star break will likely play a large role in whether they are buyers, sellers or a mixture of both at the trade deadline. Successful management of the pitching staff will be crucial over this 5-game/4-day series. A strong start Monday night by Dustin May will be key.

The good news is that we face a sub .500 team.

Ah, like I said in my previous preview, which was #27, for every Series there is good news and there is bad news.

The good news is that Brazil has lost. Ouch, just like last time, let me try this again: the good news is that no longer is the Padres a team with a record over .500. You all know what that means: the Diamondbacks have a terrible record against teams that are above .500, so with the Padres no longer being there, we have a terrific opportunity to go over Mount .500 again.

The bad news is that our best pitcher, Eduardo Rodriguez, will not take the mound in this series, so it will all be a gamble.

This series is 4 games. That is a lot of games. Sweeping is probably out of the question, but taking 3 should be possible, right?

Let’s take a look.

We have seen the San Diego Padres in just one series so far this season, and that was a 2-game series on April 25 and April 26. The Padres were tied as league leaders when they visited Chase Field at that moment, with a solid 17-8 record. The Diamondbacks were also in la la land, standing at 14-11, though the series loss against Chicago White Sox might have been a bit sour.

The first game was a 6-4 loss, Arizona could not hold a 4-0 lead after 2 innings: Pfaadt loaded the bases and Taylor Clarke emptied them, in a way a pitcher should not. The second game was pretty much the other way around, with the Padres taking a 6-0 lead after the top 5, a weak performance from Ryne Nelson, only to go down 12-7, with the Snakes scoring 10 runs in the 7th and 8th inning, amongst them a Tim Tawa grand-slam.

That was then, and this is now.

What is now?

Now is a Diamondbacks’ record that has not changed that much, going from 15-13 to 44-45. Now is also the total collapse of the San Diego Padres. After that first win against the Diamondbacks the Padres were 10 games above .500 and took the sole lead of the NL West. After that they pretty much gave good competition against the Dodgers, sitting closely behind them for almost the entire month of May, going 11 games over .500 at a certain moment, until the Phillies came to San Diego on May 25 and swept the Padres, the beginning of a slow downfall.

Ever since that series, the Padres have gone 13-24.

Over that span, the Padres still have a better offence than the Diamondbacks. Ha, you would not have suspected that, right? Truth is that, despite not being an All Star, Fernando Tatis Jr. still has been able to provide a 144 WRC+ in that time period, despite the lack of power and pop. Except for Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill, the Padres’ batting lineup has still been able to provide a run here and there, though sporadically, but all above or close to 100 WRC+.

Their starting and relief pitching has been bad, except for their star closer (and their top relievers are solid too), but more or less similar to the Diamondbacks’ pitching. As a matter of fact, xERA is slightly better than Arizona’s, though the ERA is not. Most likely, the Padres are not as good as they were the first two months of the season and are probably not as bad as they have been ever since. Their current record might be a good reflection of who they are this season, so this series will probably balance out or the luckier team might win.

The Padres receive the Diamondbacks with an injured list full of pitchers, a la Diamondbacks: Joe Musgrove (setback), Yu Darvish (out for the year), Nick Pivetta, Lucas Giolito, Randy Vasquez, David Morgan and Jason Adam (the latter being of the better relievers) all have no timetable for return.

The past two years, the Padres have had the Diamondbacks’ number. Arizona still maintains an all-time lead over San Diego, though it is shrinking: 248-234.

Matchups.

Game #1 Mon 07/06 6:40 PM MST, Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs Walker Buehler (SDP).

• Brandon Pfaadt. 14 G, 4 GS, 43.1 IP, 1 W-1 L, 5.40 ERA, 5.44 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 33/18 K/BB. $3,400,000.
• Walker Buehler. 17 GS, 82.0 IP, 5 W-4 L, 4.61 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 76/30 K/BB. $1,500,000.

Brandon Pfaadt might still piss his bed when he thinks about the last time when he faced the Padres. It was in long relief, loading the bases and seeing Taylor Clarke relieve and gift him with 4 runs. But that Pfaadt no longer exists. We now have a renewed and rejuvenated Brandon Pfaadt, who knows how to strike the batters out, but, above all, keeps the hard hits limited. Unlike his fellow veterans Gallen and Kelly, Pfaadt now knows how to keep the balls in the park, something he had no idea about until going back to Reno. There, in the desert, he learned in 10 innings all that there is to know about baseball and how to become an ace in the major leagues. Pfaadt will lead the Diamondbacks to a victory and himself to everlasting success!

One who was on that road of success as well, was Walker Buehler. He was a menace in Los Angeles, an All Star and Cy Young contender, until he had to undergo Tommy John and ever since, he has never been the same again. In 2025 he was bad in Boston, but better in relief in Philadelphia. San Diego offered him a one-year contract. If Buehler continues to pitch like he does, he is a good candidate to get a Mike Soroka-like contract next season and the next ones, getting one year deals that flirt with 8 digit figures.

Game #2 Tue 07/07 6:40 PM MST, Zac Gallen (ARI) vs TBD.

• Zac Gallen. 18 GS, 92.0 IP, 3 W-8 L, 6.36 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 1.57 WHIP, 56/28 K/BB. $16,199,618.
• TBD.

The Padres don’t have a starter for this game yet, because this is the spot of Randy Vasquez, who hit the injured list recently and is without a timetable of return. Good chance the Padres call up Jhony Brito, who pitched briefly in the majors in 2023 and 2024 but was injured in the 2025 season. He recently returned and has pitched to an excellent 0.96 ERA in the PCL in 4 starts in June (18.2 innings). If he ends up starting this game, he will probably be on a short lease.

In my last series preview I said that it was hardly possible to get any worse than Gallen has pitched so far, but I was wrong, because his ERA keeps on rising. Last time Gallen held an opponent scoreless or limited to less than 2 runs was on April 25, against these Padres, when he had a brief appearance of 3 innings because of an injury. Maybe the Padres will inspire him again to a scoreless performance.

Game #3 Wed 07/08 7:10 PM MST, Jose Cabrera (ARI) vs Michael King (SDP).

• Jose Cabrera. 3 GS, 79.2 IP, 3 W-6 L, 6.10 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.63 WHIP, 52/25 K/BB. $412,929.
• Michael King. 15 GS, 89.0 IP, 6 W-2 L, 2.73 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 55/17 K/BB. $9,000,000.

After an encouraging debut, Jose Cabrera is experiencing the major leagues, with a tough performance against the Rays and an even tougher one against the Brewers. Maybe the Padres’ lineup will offer Cabrera a breeze, but more likely he will continue to learn the hard way in the major leagues. If he is hit hard, good chance it will be his final performance in the major leagues because he won’t be necessary for the final series before the All Star break, and after that, who knows.

Michael King has been the sole starting pitching star on this Padres’ squad, in what will most likely be his final year in San Diego, before skipping the player options and testing the free agency market, looking to sign a new contract before a lock-out becomes inevitable. King has faced the Diamondbacks four times in his career, all as a Padre, and has never lost.

Game #4 Thu 07/09 6:40 PM MST, Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Griffin Canning (SDP).

• Merrill Kelly. 15 GS, 86.2 IP, 6 W-8 L, 5.71 ERA, 6.02 FIP, 1.56 WHIP, 53/35 K/BB. $18,000,000.
• Griffin Canning. 12 G, 9 GS, 51.0 IP, 1 W-6 L, 6.71 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 1.61 WHIP, 50/30 K/BB. $1,000,000.

Good chance that the final game of this series will become an absolute spectacle of a slugfest, with Merrill Kelly, the homer-prone pitcher, facing Griffin Canning, who is having a nightmare of a season. Merrill was once again hittable, but the Brewers couldn’t hurt Kelly too much, and despite one homerun, only gave up 2 runs. That is what we call a quality outing.

Canning did his starting and has also been used after an opener this season. In either case, it has not really worked for him. Canning is in the rotation because all others are injured, otherwise, he would have probably seen himself working in either long relief / mop-up or bumped off the roster. Canning was one of those prospects the Angels tried to rocket into the major leagues, but after an encouraging start, he never could cement himself as a major league starter, though he had an okay bounceback last year for the New York Mets. He faced the Diamondbacks last year with the Mets, getting a win, allowing only 1 run in 5 innings. It looks like the league has adjusted to this groundball pitcher once more, because the changeup he so successfully deployed last season, is now getting hit hard by the batters.

No, the trade deadline hasn’t arrived, nor are the Detroit Tigers getting an early start as a seller. Still, given the way this season has gone, it’s a bit amusing to think of the Tigers as having surplus relief help that is in demand by other clubs around the league. The Tigers dealt two Triple-A relievers, RHP Woo-Suk Go and RHP Matt Seelinger to the Twins and the Mets over the past two days, receiving cash considerations in return.

The key factor involved in the trades were the escalator clauses in both right-hander’s minor league deals with the Tigers. Both had the right to opt-out if not added to the 40-man roster shortly, and that wasn’t going to happen. So in a sense these are just procedural moves, the type that come up for the Tigers every year as president of baseball operations stockpiles minor league relievers via claims and minor league signings to try and fill out a pretty weak farm system in terms of upper level pitching prospects.

The 27-year-old Go, who has closing experience in his native South Korea pitching in the KBO, compiled a 2.60 ERA with a 2.43 FIP for the Toledo Mud Hens this season across 27.2 innings of work. His walk rates were a touch on the high side, but a 29.1 percent strikeout rate and no home runs allowed at the Triple-A level made him an interesting candidate who seemed like he might get a shot at some point. He developed a pretty good splitter over the past year, but still works with a pretty modest 92-94 mph fastball.

Seelinger’s numbers were more modest, and this was the 31-year-old right-hander’s third season in the Tigers’ farm system. His strikeout rates have been good, and he has both good extension and a solid mix of breaking and offspeed stuff, fulfilling much of what the Tigers like to look for, but his fastball shape has always been a problem, and the walks and power against him never really got under control for too long.

So ultimately, this is more about the state of the Twins and Mets at this point than anything to do with the Tigers. Both pitchers were bound to move on shortly anyway, with no real path to the major leagues for Seelinger, and only a slim one for Go. Flipping them for cash before that happened is just a standard decision.

As for the Tigers’ bullpen, finding the right arms to close out high leverage situations remains a challenge, but overall they were much better over the past five weeks. Since June 1, the Tigers bullpen ranks seventh best by ERA, and 11th by FIP, putting them comfortable into above average territory. Will Vest’s injury issues and struggles have presented a pretty big problem for them, but with Vest out again with an arm injury, they’ve gotten more aggressive with possible solutions.

The addition, at least temporarily, of Keider Montero should remain a big boost to that group, helping to close out games and pushing some lesser arms back into setup and middle relief territory, where they belong. Kenley Jansen will keep getting selected save opportunities for a while, but ideally Drew Anderson would clean up his tendency to make one big mistake and start contributing more in tight spots. We’ll see if that happens to play out. It’s also not impossible that the Tigers might decide to use Jackson Jobe out of the pen once his rehab is complete in August, but we’ll just have to see how that plays out. Otherwise, this is still a group that is deep enough in solid arms, but still lacks a real ace in the pen to shut the door on opponents. The probability that the Tigers will trade some starting pitching over the next month and need Montero right back into the rotation says the pen is going to remain their key problem.

The Tigers bullpen has gotten in much better shape, but it’s still far from a top unit. If Go and Seelinger couldn’t crack this group, the Tigers aren’t going to miss them.

It’s been a wild run of Cubs baseball over the last few days. The Cubs put an exclamation point on a 16-10 June with a 23-run barrage against the Padres before promptly giving up 17 runs against the St. Louis Cardinals, because baseball. The bats have been hot generally, but one player in particular is in the midst of a historic hot streak: Dansby Swanson. I mean, just check out the three home runs he clubbed on July 1 against the Padres [VIDEO].

It’s a remarkable turnaround, and you really don’t have to look further than Dansby’s splits before the hot streak and during it to see how big of an impact he’s had during the last three weeks for the Cubs. Baseball is such a random game of hot and cold streaks that I don’t generally recommend pulling cherry picked streaks in this way, however, what Dansby is doing right now is so noteworthy I think it’s helpful. Below you can see Dansby’s numbers on the season through June 16 compared to the absolute heater he’s been on since June 17:

I mean, the home run and RBI totals alone are mind-blowing stats. Dansby has had more long balls and runs batted in during this 65 plate appearance stretch than he’s had during the first two and a half months of the season. It’s been an unbelievable span of production. In fact, in the 150-year history of the Chicago Cubs only two other players have put up more RBI in a 16-game span than Dansby Swanson: Sammy Sosa and Hack Wilson.

Sammy Sosa had one 16-game span where he had 32 RBI and 15 home runs. I’m sure you remember it well, it was the summer of 1998 starting May 25 and ending June 15, part of his historic June that ultimately saw him club a record 20 home runs. Hack Wilson had an unbelievable run through late July and the end of August in 1930 en route to setting the all time single season RBI record of 191, that season included multiple 16-game spans that saw him post 30+ RBI. Next up on the list is Dansby Swanson.

Kiki Cuyler also had a span of exactly 29 RBI in a 16 game span, tying Swanson’s mark. Intriguingly, Cuyler’s mark maps almost perfectly calendar-wise on Dansby’s current streak. Cuyler built his run from June 19, 1930 to July 4, 1930.

One fun fact about all of the numbers above, because spans start and stop on different days, Dansby should have a handful of shots between now and the All Star Break to pad those numbers and potentially pass Sosa and/or Wilson. He’ll lose two RBI next game as the Cubs contest with the Orioles replaces a June 17 game against the Rockies where he went 1 for 4 against the Rockies with a home run and two RBI, he’ll lose another RBI the day after that as he replaces the June 19 game against Toronto that saw him go 1 for 6 with an RBI. Given the hot streak he’s been on, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see him put together a performance worth more than an RBI or three over the next two games.

Here’s hoping Dansby stays hot so the Cubs can keep their winning ways going as they head into the All Star break. He won’t really start to lose the core of his current streak until the doubleheader from June 24 against the Mets falls out of the span. That day he notched 11 RBI across two games, going a combined 5 for 9 over two games with two home runs and a triple. Let’s check out the seven-RBI affair that started it all one more time [VIDEO].

Kyle Freeland against Eric Lauer as the first-place Dodgers host the last-place Rockies is the matchup for the start of a series that represents the last Colorado visit to Los Angeles this season. Anyone’s feelings of déjà vu will be validated with this specific matchup because it has taken place once already this season; in fact, it was the duel for Lauer’s Dodgers debut.

A little over a month ago, the veteran left-hander was making his first start as a Dodger, and to be frank, his performance that game was nearly irrelevant to the result, with the Dodgers’ offense scoring 15 runs and cruising towards a blowout win. A similar type of game could very well happen again, even without the effects of Coors Field; after all, one cannot stress just how poorly this season has gone for Freeland, the pitcher with the worst ERA in baseball for anyone who has thrown at least 60 innings, at 7.25.

On a broader note, while it is easy to overlook Lauer’s contribution, one should not trivialize what he’s been able to accomplish since coming over to the Dodgers—making adjustments, including throwing his cutter far more than he was doing in his time as a Blue Jay. Between Lauer’s own terrible numbers early in the year with Toronto, Freeland’s performance, and that of several other veterans, it’s easy to illustrate the difficulty in putting together a run of starts as productive as Lauer’s after moving to a new club. The veteran southpaw is leading the Dodgers to a 6-0 record with a sub-3.00 ERA in 34.1 innings.

Monday’s game info

• Teams: Dodgers vs. Rockies
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
• Start time: 7:10 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

The Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)

This is one of the strangest and also weakest drafts in recent memory. Just as the impacts of the COVID draft and season have finally worked their way out of the system, the draft is now confronted by a staggeringly mediocre pool of prospects and the new reality that this is likely the last draft of its kind, as the new CBA is likely to significantly alter the way the draft functions, in many meaningful, impactful ways.

Introduction

It’s that time of year again. It’s that time when all teams turn their eyes momentarily from the various storylines surrounding division standings, all-star antics, and likely trade deadline scenarios and instead affix their attention on the newest crop of potential all-stars and epic busts. This year, the MLB draft will be held over a two-day window. The draft will begin on Saturday, 11 July at 10:00 MST, with rounds 1-4. The second day goes by much faster and will encompass rounds 5-20. The viewing schedule for the draft this year is as convoluted as MLB’s many various broadcasting deals for regular season games. It’s mind-boggling that MLB hasn’t figured out yet that this does not help their draft ratings. Nor is MLB’s draft ever going to rival the NFL draft. So maybe, just maybe, they could stop trying to pretend it can. Anyway…

Here is the broadcast schedule for this year’s draft:
Day 1: Saturday, July 11 (Rounds 1-4)

• 1:00-2:30 p.m. ET – Picks 1-10 (NBC/Peacock)
• 2:30-4:30 p.m. ET – Picks 11-40 (MLB Network, MLB.com, MLB TV, MLB+)
• 4:30-7:45 p.m. ET – Picks 41-135 (MLB.com, MLB TV, MLB+)

Day 2: Sunday, July 12 (Rounds 5-20)

11:30 a.m.-7:30 p.m. ET (MLB.com, MLB TV, MLB+)

For at least one final season, the draft is largely defined by the draft pool, as determined and allotted by draft position. Arizona picks at #15 in the first round. The Diamondbacks were originally positioned to pick at No. 10 but slipped five spots during the Draft Lottery. Leading up to the draft, notable prospects linked to Arizona in expert mock drafts include Virginia outfielder A.J. Garcia and highly-touted high school infielder Tyler Bell.

Here is the final draft pool and selection order, along with the bonuses allowed for each of the first round picks. Bonus pool overages only apply to the first 10 rounds. If the team has any money remaining from that pool, the team is free to spend it on rounds 11-20.

Bonus pools
Pirates: $19,130,700
Rays: $19,009,300
White Sox: $17,592,100
Giants: $17,350,600
Twins: $16,929,600
Cardinals: $16,612,300
Royals: $15,954,000
Braves: $15,870,800
Rockies: $15,557,600
Athletics: $13,840,300
Astros: $13,712,700
Diamondbacks: $13,603,100
Orioles: $13,114,000
Nationals: $12,278,300
Marlins: $11,960,100
Angels: $11,755,400
Reds: $10,758,500
Rangers: $10,219,200
Cubs: $9,644,100
Padres: $9,479,000
Guardians: $9,303,700
Tigers: $9,165,100
Red Sox: $8,219,200
Mariners: $8,218,200
Brewers: $8,042,900
Phillies: $7,773,000
Yankees: $7,342,800
Mets: $6,730,900
Blue Jays: $5,543,100
Dodgers: $3,951,900

First round

1. White Sox: $11,350,600
2. Rays: $10,507,000
3. Twins: $9,740,100
4. Giants: $8,988,400
5. Pirates: $8,336,500
6. Royals: $7,746,100
7. Orioles: $7,327,200
8. Athletics: $6,982,600
9. Braves: $6,675,300
10. Rockies: $6,393,100
11. Nationals: $6,133,500
12. Angels: $5,889,300
13. Cardinals: $5,661,300
14. Marlins: $5,444,900
15. Diamondbacks: $5,241,000
16. Rangers: $5,051,900
17. Astros: $4,868,600
18. Reds: $4,695,500
19. Guardians: $4,530,500
20. Red Sox: $4,373,900
21. Padres: $4,224,700
22. Tigers: $4,082,700
23. Cubs: $3,947,600
24. Mariners: $3,818,700
25. Brewers: $3,696,000

Additionally, the Diamondbacks have the 31st pick in the draft, thanks to their inclusion in Competitive Balance Round A.

31. $3,118,300

The Diamondbacks then join the standard order of selections for the second round.

53. $1,848,200

Finally, after Competitive Balance Round B and the Free Agent Compensation picks are made, Arizona will select in rounds 3-20.

88. $915,100
116. $670,900
There are three more Free Agent Compensation picks between rounds four and five.
148. $491,700
177. $377,000
206. $297,100
236. $237,800
266. $209,500
296. $196,500

Conclusion

The Diamondbacks are on the cusp of adding 11 new names to the farm system. There are a number of outside considerations for this draft that will impact the team’s ability to find some true impact talent. We’ll be taking a look at some of that over the next few days. Stay tuned for the next segment where we discuss the pitching side of things.

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ lineup has given opposing pitchers nightmares all season, but that still doesn’t excuse the Washington staff after allowing 23 runs in just 3 games, resulting in a series loss. The Phillies and Marlins remain red-hot, and the National League Wild Card race isn’t getting any weaker, making this upcoming series against the Astros, and the rest of the month of July for that matter, all the more important.

Houston is sitting on the bubble of a playoff spot and has been playing some much better baseball after a few dreadful stretches during the first half of the season. They still find themself 2 games under .500 and 3rd in an inconsistent American League West, but one series could change the landscape of the entire division.

Game 1 – Monday 6:45 PM EST

WSH: RHP Miles Mikolas (2-7, 5.44 ERA)

HOU: RHP Mike Burrows (4-8, 5.58 ERA)

This is where the conversation surrounding Mikolas continues to get controversial. A dazzling month of May and portion of June had him looking like a potentially impactful piece in the patchwork Washington rotation, but 2 of his last 3 starts have seen him allow 5 or more runs. He enters this next appearance with a full week of rest, and the Nats will hope that the veteran can get himself back on track.

On the flip side, Burrows had just 2 outings in June where he allowed less than 4 runs, with one of those coming in a 1-inning relief spot. The righty has yet to put together a stretch of starts that has looked anything close to adequate, making him the perfect starter for the Nationals to jump on early and set the tone in this weekday series.

Game 2 – Tuesday 6:45 PM EST

WSH: LHP Andrew Alvarez (2-1, 3.05 ERA)

HOU: RHP Tatsuya Imai (5-4, 6.14 ERA)

It’s odd for a starter who has yet to work into the 6th inning to be labeled as a “rotation savior”, but that’s essentially what Alvarez has been for the Nats. He rarely gives up any substantial amount of runs, and while it won’t always look the prettiest, the results speak for themselves. The southpaw has also seen an uptick in his whiff rates as of late, making him one of the more important arms on the roster as it stands.

The transition to MLB has been rocky at best for Imai, who signed a large contract with Houston over the offseason as one of the premier Japanese pitching talents to come overseas in recent years. He’s forcing whiffs, but hitters are rarely chasing his pitches and squaring up anything and everything that’s in the zone. The Washington power bats could have a field day on Tuesday night, and elevating the baseball is once again an ideal way to succeed.

Game 3 – Wednesday 6:45 PM EST

WSH: LHP Foster Griffin (9-2, 2.87 ERA)

HOU: RHP Spencer Arrighetti (7-4, 3.81 ERA)

Griffin has remained steady into the month of July, and I don’t think it’s crazy to say that the lefty is making a case for being one of the most productive arms in the entire National League. He’s lowered his ERA to a sub-2.90 mark, and his WHIP is teetering on dipping below 1.00. One of the biggest breakout arms in MLB, Griffin’s next start could be a crucial one, depending on how the first two games of the series go.

The Nats will hope to see the June Arrighetti rather than his initial July form on Wednesday evening. The righty was tagged for 25 runs in 25.0 innings across 5 June appearances, but settled down and allowed just 1 run and 2 hits over 6.0 innings against Tampa Bay to open his month of July. The matchup heavily favors Washington, but it will be a battle of finesse pitchers in the series finale.

Yesterday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today included in his Sunday Notebook four potential Astros trade targets:

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/houston-astros-rumors/76265/astros-targeting-of-sp-at-deadline-moniak-mccarthy-skubal-gray

Today, former MLB GM Jim Bowden of The Athletic gave us four targets of his own, 3 new ones and one that was also included by Nightengale in Mickey Moniak:

From former MLB GM Jim Bowden:

The Astros are searching for a left-handed hitting outfielder with pop to better balance their lineup. There are not a lot of players available who fit that profile, but a few significant ones they should target include Jarren Duran, Kerry Carpenter, Ryan O’Hearn and maybe even Mickey Moniak.

Best fit: Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox

Duran needs a change of scenery and would thrive in the Astros’ strong clubhouse environment.

Jarren Duran

Duran, 29, is having the worst season of his career, clearly impacted by the mass of trade rumors that surrounded him all offseason and the tumult around the Red Sox to this point in the year. Duran this season is batting just .197 with a .259 OBP and .620 OPS.

It should be noted that his previous 2 season, he combined to post a 14.9 WAR, has led the AL in triples both seasons, led the AL in doubles in 2024 (in which he finished 8th in AL MVP).

Duran, between 2023 and 2025, batted .273 with a .339 OBP, .812 OPS and 122 OPS+. He also stole 82 bases during that time, with a season high of 34. It stands to reason he is a terrific ‘buy low’ candidate, but clearly there is risk involved, if his production doesn’t return this season.

He has played all 3 outfield positions, but has primarily played LF and CF, at near equal rates. He grades much better defensively in LF than he does in CF.

Duran is on a 1 year, $7.7M contract, and has 2 years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

Kerry Carpenter

Carpenter, 28, is traditionally a low average, low on-base, higher OPS guy because of his power. He is batting .234 this season with a .306 OBP and .790 OPS. Carpenter has 13 HR and 36 RBI in 67 games (192 AB).

For his career he is a .263 batter with a .319 career OBP and .823 OPS. He will provide power, but his other numbers seem to go against what the Astros have shown a desire to add to the lineup, which is the ability to get on base and control the strike zone.

Carpenter is primarily a RF, but has experience in LF as well.

Carpenter is on a 1 year, $3.275M contract, and has 2 years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

Ryan O’Hearn

O’Hearn, 32, is having a solid offensive season in his first year in Pittsburgh, batting .284 with a .344 OBP and .807 OPS. He has 13 HR and 51 RBI in 285 AB to date this season.

O’Hearn has primarily been a 1B, but has experience in both corner OF spots. He is a below average defender at all 3 positions.

Over his most recent 3.5 seasons (going back to 2023), O’Hearn has batted .278 with a .343 OBP, .795 OPS and 119 OPS+. He has been the most consistent offensive player of the bunch, but the worst defender.

O’Hearn is in the first year of a 2 year, $29M deal, and will make $15M next season.

Mickey Moniak

Moniak, 28, is a former 1st round pick in 2016 drafted out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies. He was brought up at age 22 the first time, and again at age 23 for a brief time as well, and struggled badly. He was traded to the Los Angeles Angels at the deadline in 2022 for Noah Syndergaard.

2023 finally led to a breakthrough season for Moniak, who hit .280 with 14 HR and 45 RBI after being called up May 12. He posted an .802 OPS, but only a .307 OBP because he walked just 9 times in 323 PA.

In 2024 he would regress, batting just .214 with a .266 OBP and .686 OPS. The Angels released him March 25, 2025.

The next day, he signed a 1 year, $1.25M deal with the Colorado Rockies. His first year in Denver, Moniak hit .270 with a career-best 24 HR and 68 RBI. He again posted a strong OPS (.824) despite a weak OBP (.306).

So far this season, Moniak is batting .282 with a .333 OBP and .945 OPS with 15 HR and 37 RBI in 55 games.

Moniak is not known as a strong defender, with limited range and a weaker arm. He would likely be a left fielder on the Astros.

Moniak is signed to a 1 year, $4M contract and still has one more season of arbitration eligibility.

After dropping the series to the Baltimore Orioles at home over the weekend, the last place Cincinnati Reds fell to just 41-48 on the season. To wrap the first half of their schedule prior to the All Star break, all they get to do is host the red hot Philadelphia Phillies (who are 20 games over .500 since their dismal 8-18 start) and the mighty Chicago Cubs who, like the Phils, are 10 games over .500 on the season.

It’s looking obvious that the Reds should be sellers ahead on the August 3rd trade deadline even if they haven’t figured that out themselves.

As we opined over a month ago (when the Reds were in last place and looked like sellers), selling wasn’t even going to be easy for them this year. The short term pieces they brought in had underperformed or were already not valued, and longer-term pieces simply had been too hurt or playing poorly to be doing anything other than selling low on.

Has any of that really changed? Let’s take a look at who might be Cincinnati’s biggest, best trade chip for this particular trade deadline.

Off-limits

RHP Chase Burns, IF Sal Stewart

Unless the Castellinis and their consortium are literally selling everything – every player, the entire franchise, all of it – you don’t even listen if someone calls about these two young All Stars. They are the new cornerstones around whom you build.

Only if you are bowled completely over

SS Elly De La Cruz, LHP Andrew Abbott

Notice how I didn’t include Elly above?

You certainly don’t shop him, as news of that would leak and there’d be an insant maelstrom out of which you would not emerge. But if someone comes in with the Bartolo Colon offer, or the Juan Soto Washington Edition offer, or the Mark Teixeira deal on Atlanta’s end, maybe it’s time to consider it.

The insane talent is still obviously there, yes, but you can make a pretty decent argument that he has plateaud just slightly below superstar status. The ability to run has also been taken away from him, either by caution due to the quad and hamstring injuries or by design from the Reds powers that be. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for 2027 and no longer cheap, but just about every team out there probably already has a ‘what would it take to get Elly from the Reds’ in their trade deadline playbook.

Also, do you really think the Reds will be good between now and when Elly walks in 3.5 years? Or, rather, between now and when they’re forced to sell him before he walks?

It’s a somewhat similar story to former All Star Andrew Abbott, who shrugged off a bad April to look exactly like the All Star he was last year again. He’s got 3.5 years of team control, too, and is the classic case of ‘Baseball Refernce bWAR loves him, and FanGraphs fWAR thinks he’s pedestrian.‘

If there’s a BBRef-worshipping franchise out there who comes calling for a starting pitcher, maybe it’s not a bad time to consider cashing in on Abbott for the same reasons.

It’s not the right time

RHP Hunter Greene, IF/OF Matt McLain, OF Noelvi Marte, RHP Rhett Lowder

Greene is precisely the kind of pitcher the Reds should want to be pitching for them the rest of the year. He just missed half a season due to surgery on a right elbow that already had Tommy John under their watch, and he’s controlled long-term. Moving him now would be selling incredibly low, and on top of that he needs to build up innings over the last half of 2026 to be fully ready to return to form in 2027.

Once he does that, then you maybe consider moving him as a cornerstone type arm, not as a dice-roll after surgery that nobody will overpay to acquire.

McLain likely has minimal, if any value right now since he’s been bad or hurt since midway through 2023. Still, he’s a former 1st round pick of two different franchises whose managers have constantly adored him, so someone would probably take a flier on him with multiple years of team control still remaining. However, I think his defense and versatility mean you hold on and give him him another shot in 2027 – ideally under the tutelage of a whole different hitting coach all winter long.

In Noelvi Marte, you still have something of a wild card. Injuries, suspensions, massive positional moves, and he’s still just 24 and oozing talent. You continue to roll the dice on him (especially if you begin a rebuild that doesn’t immediately prioritize winning) and hope he figures it out.

Lowder is something of the Marte version of the pitching staff. You simply wait to see more with him, as there were legitimate reasons (and still are) why he was valued so highly by so many so recently.

Can you even give them away?

IF Eugenio Suarez, RHP Emilio Pagan, OF TJ Friedl, C Jose Trevino

There is a lot (by Reds standards) of money tied to these four this year. Almost $35 million, in fact, and that’s given the Reds a combined -1.5 bWAR. Injuries certainly haven’t helped, but this foursome has been an epic failure so far in 2026.

Someone would probably take Suarez off the Reds hands on a bet he does have a hot streak in him somewhere, but they certainly wouldn’t a) give up anything of value to do that or b) do so without the Reds eating money. TJ Friedl might have a taker somewhere who thinks they can fix him – he does have an option left and has team control for two years – but it’d be such a sell-low that the return would be near nil.

The other two? Well, Pagan’s contract literally has a kicker that pays him more if he’s traded, and Trevino’s got almost zero trade value with that money tied to him despite being a pretty OK backup catcher (when not hurt all the time).

You can’t even give him away

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Hayes, whose back was a problem when the Reds acquired him from Pittsburgh last year and has been partially behind him being the worst hitter on the planet in 2026, has no trade value. Not with more than $30 million guaranteed to him going forward.

The Reds are stuck with him until they release him.

Do you actually want to give him away?

RHP Brady Singer

Singer has been better lately than he was during a brutal two-month start to the year, but he’s still not been great. What he has been, though, is perpetually reliable, and that’s something the Reds might actually need for the last half of the year.

If they dealt Abbott, or Nick Lodolo, who actually soaks up innings on this roster? Is it worth keeping Singer around at the prorated portion of his salary so that someone can actually go 5 IP every fifth day, especially once Chase Burns gets inevitably shut down?

Do you really trust Chase Petty, or Julian Aguiar to step right in and get through 6 IP every week?

You can make the case that Singer will have a small market, and that’s probably true. What I’m saying here, though, is that if the Reds move him and make a larger move to deal another established starter, Nick Krall is going to need a Zack Littell-esque move to literally have a body out there who can get enough outs to get through the end of the year. It’ll be hard to find one more apt at that for cheaper than what they’ve already got in Singer.

The bullpen

There are some pieces here that good teams will want. Good teams needing only fringe additions in the middle of their bullpen won’t be sending over future superstar talent to acquire them, but they’ll send enough to make the moves.

This is the Brock Burke, Caleb Ferguson, Pierce Johnson category. If the Reds eat a million here or there with this trio, they’ll be able to get legitimate wild card pieces who are years away. You do this as soon as you can if you are Krall, and you look immediately at where the current Reds bullpen ranks and realize it won’t fall any further down the rankings if you just bring back Connor Phillips, Zach Maxwell, Luis Mey, etc.

(That’s a long-term problem to fix. Get what you can from what few pillars there are there right now.)

Sam Moll is controllable again in 2027, so perhaps you keep him around. Someone will need to be a reliever on the Reds in 2027. Still, if someone comes calling for him, might as well move him, too.

The obvious movers

1B Nathaniel Lowe, C Tyler Stephenson

Lowe was released by the Washington Nationals mid-August last year and Boston brought him in for a successful month and a half that mimicked his work for years in Texas. Still, nobody wanted Lowe this offseason and he came to the Reds on a minor league deal and has, ever since, looked more or less like the typical Lowe. There’s just a very light market for that right now, though someone will likely send at least some cash to move him on.

Stephenson might have suitors, especially if any of the typical catching injuries pop up to a key player at an opportune time. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so the Reds may as well move him for what they can. If they want him back on a 1-year deal this winter, he’ll be a free agent and they’ve got his phone number after 11 years in the organization, after all.

The legitimately OK pieces

OF JJ Bleday, IF/OF Spencer Steer, LHP Nick Lodolo

Here’s why we wrote the article. It took us over 1600 words to talk about how little the Reds should legitimately shop this trade deadline, but we made it to this trio – JJ Bleday, Spencer Steer, and Nick Lodolo.

They’re a trio that each come with team control beyond 2026 – 2027 for Lodolo, 2027 and 2028 for Bleday and Steer. Each has their own solid pedigree, too.

• Lodolo was twice drafted in the 1st round and was a consensus Top 100 prospect, and his 2025 season established an ability to be a front-line starter.
• Bleday was a Top 5 pick, posted a 20 homer season back with the A’s, and was the NL Player of the Month in May when he was the best hitter on the planet.
• Steer finished 6th in Rookie of the Year voting, played in the Futures Game the year before, and has a streak of 20+ homer seasons sitting at three right now with 14 already this year, has a 20/25 season under his belt, and he plays all over defensively (even if it’s mediocre)

Nobody is trading for Bleday or Steer to come in and be the best position player on their team, but each would likely be given a significant complementary role for just about any team (especially with Steer’s defense and Bleday’s bat vs RHP). That paired with team control has a good bit of value, even if Bleday’s is dented by his uncermonious exit from the A’s organization.

It’s Lodolo, though, who has the chance to be the buy-low steal of this trade deadline, and that’s my pick for the most apt combination of biggest and best trade chip right now. He just poured in his best start of the year over the weekend, and the blister issues that dogged him early finally look like they’re in the past. He also has a reptuation as being ‘injury prone’ because yes, he has missed a lot of time over the years, but none of those has been a structural injury to a key part of his prized left arm.

There are a lot of miles left on Nick Lodolo, and while he might not get a fraction of the haul that Tarik Skubal will net the Tigers this deadline, you can make the claim (especially while pointing at 2025) that he’s got every bit the next-best upside of any arm on the block. So, there could be some decent bidding on him despite the totality of his 2026 stats looking pedestrian by his standards.

The Reds could certainly wait on him, hope he pitches like we know he can during the season’s second half, and shop him this winter. But that wouldn’t be during a playoff chase for teams, and demand – while broader – might not be as intensely focused.

If Lodolo continues to round back into form over the next four weeks, he’s the single best chip the Reds should move as sellers this trade deadline.

The last two weeks have been downright depressing in Yankeeland; that much is obvious. Pretty much every facet of the game has been agonizing to watch, and even though several of these games have been winnable towards the end, only one of them have ended in the win column over the last 10 games. While injuries are a big factor, it’s also just maddening regression from the 26 guys on the roster. If you removed the contributions of Aaron Judge and Max Fried from the team’s first two months, they’d still probably have the best record in the AL through mid-June. Their struggles are much more predicated on the guys on the roster stumbling over themselves.

The team is doing a lot less of a lot of things right now. They aren’t slugging. They aren’t making basic defensive plays. The rotation has only put up a zero twice to start the game in the last nine games. Some of this can be explained, though. The slugging drop-off makes sense with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton sidelined, along with a slump by Ben Rice. The defensive miscues make more sense with how players are being played out of position out of necessity. The rotation is experiencing natural regression from a strong start and is without Max Fried or Carlos Rodón.

Something that can’t be as easily explained is the other big part of a formidable Yankees offense vanishing, their ability to draw walks. That and hitting the long ball carry a whole lot of weight for an offense that’s usually among the game’s elite. Since mid-June, the team has gone from one of the best at taking the free pass to one of the worst:

Walk Rate:
Through June 16th: 11.3 percent (first in MLB)
Since June 17th: 7.1 percent (26th)

Sure, Judge and Trent Grisham are big reasons why the team has the league’s best walk rate, but even with their absence, the team should still be pretty good at it. Even if you remove their plate appearances from the sample, something that would not be a clear representative of the data, they drop to sixth in walk rate through mid-June at 10.3 percent.

The raw numbers tell the story of a team that, overall, is walking less across the board, but maybe not as much as you’d think given the drop off.

BB% since June 17, change from pre-June 17th:
Ryan McMahon: 7.8 percent to 11.8 percent (+4.0)
José Caballero: 5.6 percent to 7.3 percent (+1.7)
Amed Rosario: 6.2 percent to 7.3 percent (+1.1)
Cody Bellinger: 13.5 percent to 13.4 percent (-0.1)
Anthony Volpe: 12.6 percent to 12.3 percent (-0.3)
Jasson Domínguez: 4.9 percent to 2.9 percent (-2.0)
Ben Rice: 13.3 percent to 8.5 percent (-4.8)
Paul Goldschmidt: 8.3 percent to 3.4 percent (-4.9)
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 11.5 percent to 5.5 percent (-6.0)
Spencer Jones*: 13.2 percent to 6.8 percent (-6.4)
Austin Wells*: 13.6 percent to 0.0 percent (-13.6)

The asterisks for Jones and Wells are for their inconsistent playing time, but I want to key in on Wells, whose descent offensively has been both bewildering and incredibly tragic for both his psyche and the organization. Even when he was objectively bad the first few months of the season, he showed improved plate discipline. He was striking out less and walking more. Through May 30th, Wells had a 13.5 BB%, but has since not drawn a single walk in 45 plate appearances. You really have to wonder at this point if those headaches he had is something closer to an Anthony Rizzo situation with how far he’s even dropped off from his pre-IL stint’s plate discipline.

The three players who’ve improved their walk rates are McMahon, Caballero, and Rosario, but the latter two are still decently below average in that regard (MLB average is 9.0 percent). Bellinger and Volpe are still well above average themselves, but the problems start after them.

Rice’s decline is pretty stunning. You would expect a guy like him to actually walk more with Judge out as the premier threat, but teams are just not scared of him right now. Maybe how mortal he’s looked lately is contributing to it? It could also be that his chase rate has ballooned from 23.3 percent to nearly 30 percent. Goldschmidt and Chisholm don’t necessarily come to mind when you think about walks, but both were drawing them at a decent rate before a recent fall-off. Goldy’s faced a ton of lefties of late, likely prompting more aggressive swing decisions, while Chisholm’s is harder to quantify.

Looking deeper, the decrease in walk rate is inversely correlated with a spike in strikeout rate. They were striking out more than league average before this recent stretch, but it’s been even more so:

Strikeout Rate:
Through June 16th: 22.8 percent (20th in MLB)
Since June 17th: 26.6 percent (27th)

K-BB% is more of a pitcher’s stat, but to give you some context, we’ll use it on the offense. Through mid-June, pitchers against the Yankees had an 11.5 K-BB%, which is like Jeffrey Springs. Since then? It’s 19.5 percent, which is similar to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That’s self-explanatory.

The more contact-oriented hitters on the team are making less contact, especially Bellinger, who’s up to a 22.4 K% over the last three weeks. He’s never been someone afraid to chase to spoil a two-strike offering or serve a single to left field, but this isn’t helping. His chase and whiff rates are both up five percent in the last three weeks.

You’d think with Judge and Grisham out, the Yankees would be seeing a lot more pitches in the strike zone. After all, there’s a lot less firepower to be worried about, right? I guess not.

Batting Zone%:
Through June 16th: 41.5 percent
Since June 17th: 41.7 percent

Negligible. This isn’t, though:

Chase%:
Through June 16th: 30.3 percent (sixth lowest in MLB)
Since June 17th: 35.5 percent (fifth highest)

That’s probably what it drills down to. They’re pressing. They feel the pressure of the situation and are flailing at more pitches, being more aggressive. The team’s overall swing percentage has increased from 44.6 percent to 48.4 percent, going from one of the most passive teams to one of the most aggressive. Aggressiveness on hittable pitches is good. That’s a major reason why the offense shook off a slump in the first two weeks, as they started swinging at hittable pitches more. This time, they’re eating out of the pitcher’s hands. It’s not a winning formula.

It also doesn’t help that the pitching staff has them trailing before they can even pick up the bat. Here’s some stats from the last nine games:

• The Yankees have not scored first once
• The rotation allowed a run in the first seven times
• They trailed before coming to bat five times
• They’ve allowed 4+ runs in the first three innings five times

The only two times the game was scoreless after one inning were on June 28th against Boston and July 1st against Detroit. In those games, the offense was dead silent for eight innings, trailed 2-0 after eight, forced extra innings, and lost in extras despite both being very winnable.

All told, nobody is contributing and that blows, but what the team could really use right now as they head into a do-or-die four-game set at Tropicana Field is to breathe, be more selective, and take the advice of Passion Pit:

The 2026 MLB Draft starts this upcoming Saturday at noon, Chicago time. The Cubs have the 23rd pick of the first round. Rounds 1 through 4 will happen on Saturday and rounds 5 through 20 will be on Sunday. So yeah, they’re compressing the usual three days of the draft down to two days this year.

Before we look ahead to whom is available and whom the Cubs might take, it might be a good idea to look back at the Cubs’ last five drafts. These are the five drafts conducted by current Cubs scouting director Dan Kantrovitz. I don’t think there’s much use in going over earlier drafts conducted by different scouting directors.

It’s clear that Kantrovitz has a preference for college over high school players, at least in the first round. All five of his first-round picks have been from a four-year college. He is willing to grab a high school player after the first round and is willing to pay an over slot bonus to sign ones he likes. James Triantos, Drew Gray, Jackson Ferris, Nazier Mulé, Zyhir Hope, Kaleb Wing and Josiah Hartshorn are all types of raw talents out of high school that the Cubs took a chance on, but not in the first round.

Kantrovitz has also shown a willingness to gamble on higher-ceiling players who fell to the Cubs because of health questions. While Kantrovitz’s first first-rounder in Wicks was more of a safe, low-ceiling guy, Cade Horton was a bold pick of a pitcher who had barely pitched in college because of Tommy John surgery. Ethan Conrad was another player whom the Cubs would never have been able to get with the 17th pick had he been healthy.

I also think that the Cubs under Kantrovitz tend to pick more hitters than pitchers, with the exception of that wacky 2022 draft. Kantrovitz will claim that’s just how the talent falls.

You’ll also note that a lot of these players have been traded already. That’s a good sign that other teams want what the Cubs have been picking in the draft.

So let’s review the five Cubs drafts under Dan Kantovitz. The round is listed first, followed by the number of the overall pick in the draft in parenthesis. Also, just because I didn’t list someone in “others of note,” that doesn’t mean they’re not a prospect. There’s only so many of them I can list, especially for the more recent drafts when lots of players still show promise.

2021 Draft

1 (21) LHP Jordan Wicks Kansas State

2 (56) SS James Triantos James Madison HS (VA)

3 (93) LHP Drew Gray IMG Academy (FL)

4 (123) OF Christian Franklin Arkansas

5 (154) SS Liam Spence Tennessee

Others of note: RHP Riley Martin (6th round), 3B BJ Murray (15th)

In Kantrovitz’s first draft, he went with someone considered a safe, low-ceiling college player in Wicks. Wicks certainly hasn’t become that back-end starter they hoped for, but he is a major leaguer (for now) and may still end up as a kind of spot starter/bullpen arm.

Triantos has struggled to find a position and is blocked in Iowa. He’s having a good year there at 23, but has only developed fringy power. He’ll probably play in the majors somewhere. It may not be in Chicago.

Gray has struggled to stay healthy and he’s out for the season. Franklin was dealt to Washington in the Michael Soroka trade and is struggling in Triple-A. Spence was released after the 2024 season.

Martin, a fifth-year senior who signed for a $1000 bonus, has the highest bWAR of any 2021 Cubs draftees. Murray is leading the International League in hitting at age 26 this year. There may be a major league future for him yet, but time is running out.

2022 Draft

1 (7) RHP Cade Horton Oklahoma

2 (47) LHP Jackson Ferris IMG Academy

3 (86) SS Christopher Paciolla Temecula Valley (CA)

4 (113) RHP Nazier Mulé Passiac County Technical (NJ)

5 (143) RHP Brandon Birdsell Texas Tech

Others of note: RHP Mason McGwire (8th round), RHP Brody McCullough (10th round)

This is the draft that Kantrovitz went wild and took 16 pitchers out of 20 picks. Kantrovitz took a chance on Horton, who hadn’t pitched much in college because of Tommy John surgery. It looked like a brilliant move until Horton went down with elbow surgery again this year. If he bounces back like he did from the last surgery, it could still turn out to be a fantastic pick, because Horton finished second in Rookie of the Year balloting last year.

Ferris proved useful to the Cubs as part of the Michael Busch trade. Paciolla was a bust and has been released. Mulé throws 100 miles per hour but has struggled with control. He has improved slightly this year. Birdsell would probably be in the Cubs starting rotation right now as a back-of-the-rotation guy were he not also recovering from Tommy John surgery.

McGwire missed all of last year with injuries, but this year he looks like a future major league pitcher. McCullough looked like a 10th-round steal out of a Division II school who has missed most of the past 2 1/2 seasons with injuries. But he’s just returning to the mound now and is a decent prospect who could be a back-end starter or a bulk reliever.

2023 Draft

1 (13) SS Matt Shaw Maryland

2 (68) RHP Jaxon Wiggins Arkansas

3 (86) SS Josh Rivera Florida

4 (113) RHP Will Sanders South Carolina

5 (149) C Michael Carico Davidson College

Others of note: OF Alfonsin Rosario (6th round), 1B Jonathon Long (9th round), OF Zyhir Hope (11th round)

I don’t think I need to tell you much about Shaw. Probably not Wiggins either, other than he’s rehabbing his way back to Iowa and should probably feature in the Cubs pitching staff next year. Rivera was traded to the Blue Jays for Nate Pearson and is currently in Triple-A. Sanders is Iowa’s best starter this year, which isn’t saying much, but he does appear on most prospect lists and could be in the Cubs rotation next year. Or this year if the injuries get even worse. The Cubs have pretty much given up on Carico as a catcher and he’s now a 1B/DH, where his bat just isn’t special.

Long is a tantalizing prospect at the moment who could be a major league starter somewhere. It would help if he proves able to handle left field.

Rosario was traded to Cleveland for Eli Morgan. Hope was part of the Michael Busch trade and is now a top prospect.

2024 Draft

1 (14) 3B Cam Smith Florida State

2 (54) 3B Cole Mathis College of Charleston

3 (90) SS Ronny Cruz Miami Christian (FL)

4 (120) SS Ty Southisene Basic HS (NV)

5 (150) C Ariel Armas San Diego

Others of note: C Owen Ayers (19th round)

You know what happened to Cam Smith. You probably also know what happened to Mathis, who was just dealt to the Mets for David Peterson. Cruz was dealt with Franklin for Soroka last year. He’s struggling a bit in High-A, but he’s also 19 and in High-A, so that’s not really a bad sign.

Southisene is having a breakout season in South Bend, putting up high batting and on-base averages, but no power. He could be a Tommy La Stella or Nick Madrigal-type player with speed. Armas is one of the best defensive catchers in all of the minors. It’s up in the air if he can hit enough to hold a backup catcher’s job.

Ayers is the real steal of this draft and is having a breakout year. Beyond the .318 batting average and 21 home runs in South Bend and Knoxville combined, he’s reportedly making great strides as a handler of a pitching staff. He already has a cannon for an arm. Ayers may always be a bat-over-defense catcher, but he’s starting to look like the Cubs’ catcher of the future.

Either in spite of or because of the Cubs trading away their first three picks, this is starting to look like a very good draft. The Cubs may not benefit from it as much as they would have hoped by trading the first three picks away, but at least they’ve gotten something out of each pick.

2025 Draft

1 (17) OF Ethan Conrad Wake Forest

2 (59) OF Kane Kepley North Carolina

3 (90) RHP Dominick Reid Abilene Christian

4 (121) RHP Kaleb Wing Scotts Valley HS (CA)

5 (151) OF Kade Snell Alabama

Others of note: OF Josiah Hartshorn Orange Lutheran (CA)

It’s obviously too early to say much about this draft class other than Hartshorn is looking like a very wise pick in the sixth round. Conrad is another one of those players that Kantrovitz tried to get a bargain with by taking an injured player. As Conrad has just started playing in Mesa, it’s too early to judge the wisdom of that. Kepley is also looking like a good pick with a .438 OBP and 40 steals so far in South Bend.

At the time that I am writing this, it appears that top prospect Owen Murphy is being called up, but its unclear when he will be deployed, though presumably he will either start today’s game or tomorrow’s. The scheduled starter has been Reynaldo Lopez for today’s game. Lopez is coming off his best start in a while, against the Cardinals. We’ll either be hoping for Reynaldo to build on that success, or perhaps more interestingly, a successful MLB debut from the Braves’ former first round pick Owen Murphy.

For New York, Freddy Peralta will start today’s game, as the series will be decided between an Atlanta win or a 2-2 split. After being one of the jewels of the offseason last offseason, being traded from Milwaukee, Peralta has not lived up to expectations in Flushing. He’s been nothing more than solid on performance and worse on run prevention, with a 4.81 ERA and a 4.16 xFIP. His velocity is perhaps down a tick and his pitch shapes have moved a touch toward his arm-side, but the big change has been his extension dropping from very good to average and his arm angle dropping 6 degrees. The Braves’ offense has been good this series, a much needed change from the last month of play, so let’s hope that continues against Peralta and the Braves can seal a nice 4-game series win over their disappointing rivals in New York.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Monday, July 6, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

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Looking for today's best MLB picks? Our baseball experts have you covered.

Neil Parker and Joe Osborne each highlight their favorite play from today's schedule, with the latest Polymarket prices and matchup analysis to help shape your betting card.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Neil Parker: Mets moneyline	+117
Joe Osborne: Dodgers -1.5	-115

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Mets moneyline

Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket

The Atlanta Braves have dropped to 29th in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA through 21 games without star Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), while the New York Mets comfortably sit 16th and eighth in the two metrics. Atlanta starter Reynaldo Lopez also sports a 4.60 xFIP across his seven 2026 starts that’s well above his 3.34 ERA, so statistical corrections looms.

It’s just the opposite with New York righty Freddy Peralta, too. He’s held opposing hitters to the sixth-lowest barrel percentage among pitchers with at least 75 innings to pave the way for a respectable 3.78 xERA that’s way below his 4.81 ERA. Peralta also has statistical correction coming to his unsustainably low 68.7% strand rate.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNY, BravesVision

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Dodgers -1.5

Price: 54¢ (-115) at Polymarket

A perfect storm has formed for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight with the Colorado Rockies coming to town. Los Angeles has demolished left-handed pitching over the past two weeks, leading MLB in OPS, and now gets a crack at Kyle Freeland, who's completely fallen apart with a 7.25 ERA through 15 starts.

Dodgers hitters have also crushed him for a .918 OPS across 200 combined at-bats. Eric Lauer has helped LA go a perfect 5-0 in his starts, while the Dodgers have won 10 straight home games against Colorado and are 13-1 in their last 14 following a loss, which is the situation tonight after losing to the Padres yesterday.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Rockies.TV, SNLA

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

A year ago today, the trajectory of the Washington Nationals changed drastically. Manager Davey Martinez and President of Baseball Operations Mike Rizzo were fired on July 6th, 2025. The duo had led the Nats to a World Series title in 2019, but in the midst of a disappointing season, it was clear that they were no longer the right men to lead the franchise forward. 

After the World Series in 2019, the Nats quickly aged out of contention, and the lack of depth on the farm meant that there were no replacements. In 2021, Mike Rizzo decided to sell off veteran pieces and lead the franchise into a rebuild. With a World Series ring only a couple years prior, Rizzo and Martinez were allowed to lead the Nats into this new era.

In 2022, the reality of the rebuild set in. This would be an even longer process than expected. That meant 23 year old future Hall of Famer Juan Soto had to be traded. The move was a painful one, but it turned out to be the best decision Mike Rizzo made in the rebuild. He got three cornerstone pieces in James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore.

However, Rizzo’s lack of success in the draft and Martinez’s archaic coaching staff meant the fruits of that trade could not be fully realized. By 2025, the Nats were stuck. They had nice pieces, but there was a clear disconnect between the coaching staff and the players, and the roster was far too top heavy. With the Nats sitting at 37-53, the Lerner family made the big decision to fire Rizzo and Martinez.

A year later, that decision is looking very wise. Right now, the Nats are above .500 with a 46-45 record. Under Paul Toboni and Blake Butera, the organization has quickly modernized and embraced analytics in a way that they had not in the past. A big story this spring was how much new technology the Nats had. Between the trajekt machine, weighted bats and more, the Nats were finally embracing 2020’s baseball.

As you can see with the record, this new approach is paying immediate dividends. The Nats did not improve their record by going out and signing big name free agents. In fact, the Nats barely spent any money at all. Toboni’s three biggest free agent signings were Miles Mikolas, Zack Littell and Foster Griffin. 

The Nats biggest offseason move was actually to sell one of their core pieces away. After an offseason of speculation, MacKenzie Gore was shipped off to Texas for a five prospect haul. So far, that move is looking good, with Devin Fitz-Gerald becoming a top 100 prospect, and Gore failing to take the next step.

I am not going to sit here and say that Toboni’s trade history has been perfect. He has made a few moves that look dicey right now, such as the Harry Ford for Jose A. Ferrer swap and the Jake Bennett for Luis Perales deal. Toboni has also struggled to build a competent bullpen, much like Mike Rizzo had for the past few seasons.

However, it would be difficult to argue that the Toboni impact has been negative. He has made good moves like the Gore deal, the Foster Griffin signing and the Curtis Mead trade. His biggest impact though has been putting a development system in place that is helping improve players on the roster.

Right now, the Nationals have scored the most runs in all of baseball. Just about every player on the offensive side of the ball has improved. Already productive players like James Wood and CJ Abrams have taken the next step. However, the biggest success stories have been among guys who had previously been written off.

I thought I knew who Luis Garcia Jr. was. My perception of him has changed drastically in the past month though. He is swinging the bat harder, hitting the ball harder and hitting it in the air more often. That has led to an insane hot streak where he has 10 homers in his last 15 games. Garcia has already set a career high with 19 home runs.

Keibert Ruiz’s turnaround is a great example of what a new coaching staff can do. His career looked to be dead and buried after last season. He was awful on both sides of the ball, and had injury issues. Ruiz’s long term contract looked like an absolute albatross. With the help of catching coach Bobby Wilson and the rest of the Nats staff, Ruiz is having a career year.

He is hitting .285 with a .788 OPS while playing well above average defense. Despite not producing the last couple years, we knew that Ruiz had some offensive upside. The defensive turnaround has been nothing short of miraculous and the changes happened seemingly overnight. That is great work by the new coaching staff, but also a real indictment on the old staff.

By the end of his tenure with the Nats, Davey Martinez seemed stubborn and standoffish. He would rather go down with the ship than make any changes to his coaching staff. That stubbornness came to a head during his famous “never on coaching” rant.

A year after his firing, it sure seems like coaching does matter. Players like Ruiz, Garcia and Mead have been totally unlocked by this coaching staff. There is still room to grow, but for the first time in a while, you can really see coaches making players better. That is what they are here to do after all.

Blake Butera embodies the development first mentality that the Nats have. This should not come as a shock given the fact that the 33 year old worked in player development for the Rays prior to taking this job. He has given some great quotes about the importance of pre-game work and about how players are still not finished products when they get to the big leagues. This coaching staff is trying to make every player better, even grizzled veterans like Miles Mikolas.

The dedication to improving players is my favorite part of this new regime, and it is the biggest change. They are clearly working very hard to make these guys better, and they are seeing the fruits of their labor.

This is not just happening on the major league side either. We have seen some big breakouts on the farm as well. Seaver King had a disastrous first pro season, but after going in the lab with the new braintrust, he looks like a different player. He is hitting the ball harder, chasing less and whiffing less.

A year after the firings of Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez, the Nationals are in a much better position. Sure, a lot of the main pieces contributing to this team were brought in by the old regime, but it is the new regime that is unlocking them.