Category: MLB

We’re about two and a half weeks into the Dodgers’ Cactus League schedule, with another roughly two and a half weeks of exhibition games to go. It’s the first year that an automated ball-strike challenge system will be used in real, actual major league games, and thus far the Dodgers have been quite unsuccessful in using their challenges.

The latest example came in the eighth inning on Sunday against the A’s in Mesa. Eliézer Alfonzo while batting challenged a strike call, and the call was upheld upon review.

MLB teams are allowed two ABS challenges per game, and they exhaust those challenges only by losing them. If a team successfully challenges a call and it is overturned, the team retains the same number of challenges it had at that point.

Using challenges in a case study in strategy, with teams using spring training to figure out the best time to use their challenges.

In February, Maxfield Lane and Owen Riley at the Down on the Farm newsletter wrote about ABS challenge efficiency, with a few key points. Among them:

• Deep counts are where it’s worth taking risks
• Be cautious when runs seem a long way off, aggressive when they’re knocking on the door
• Be willing to take risks in high-leverage situations, particularly late in games

In similar fashion, Tom Tango developed a statistical model based on the ideal times and situations to challenge pitch calls, which serves as the basis for metrics used by Baseball Savant to measure the efficiency of teams’ choices.

Through Sunday, the Dodgers have challenged 22 pitch calls this spring, and have only won five of those challenges (22.7 percent). MLB-wide this spring, 52.4 percent of all calls have been overturned.

Per Baseball Savant, the Dodgers have gotten 9.6 fewer overturned calls than expected based on the pitch calls they’ve challenged, second-worst in the majors

Here are all of their challenges to date.

One interesting trend thus far for the Dodgers is that, of their challenges while batting, five of the 11 have come from catchers, which I guess stands to reason given the position having such an intimate knowledge of the strike zone. To date, Dodgers position players to challenge calls at the plate are Freddie Freeman (unsuccessful), Alex Call (successful), Andy Pages (unsuccessful), Zach Ehrhard (unsuccessful), James Tibbs III (unsuccessful), and Miguel Rojas (successful).

Dodgers catchers have challenged 11 calls and gotten three overturned (27.2 percent), while Los Angeles batters have challenged 11 calls and gotten two overturned (18.2 percent). Through Sunday, MLB batters league-wide have been successful on 46.2 percent of challenges, with pitchers/catchers at 58.1 percent. To date, no Dodgers pitcher has initiated a challenge.

Spring training is for figuring things out for the regular season. And with a little more than two weeks left of practice games, the Dodgers need to get better at using their ABS challenges.

This is the second installment in analyzing team trends as we move towards the regular season. It’s still early and the exact numbers matter less than the trends they point toward – especially when compared to the same measurements from the 2025 season. The underlying data from Rays outfielders has stood out the most so far in Spring Training, which isn’t surprising given the moves the front office made this offseason.

If these early trends hold, the Rays’ outfield could shift from a weakness in 2025 to a legitimate strength in 2026.

49.2%

is the line drive plus fly ball rate for Rays outfielders so far this spring. This is up significantly from the 42.1% mark during the 2025 regular season, when they were dead last in the league by a wide margin. They’re sitting closer to the middle of the pack this spring, and even a jump from worst to average should translate to significantly better run production, especially when coupled with the next data point.

104.6mph

is the 90th percentile exit velocity from Rays outfielders so far this spring. This is an increase from 102.7mph during the 2025 regular season. While it’s still slightly below average, the front office took clear steps to address the lack of impact from the Rays outfield last season – particularly adding Jacob Melton and Ryan Vilade. After being near the bottom of the league in 2025, the group now looks closer to 45-grade raw power rather than the 30-grade impact they showed last season.

-7.9%

is how much Rays outfielders have collectively decreased their chase rate compared to the 2025 offense. Disciplined hitters like Jake Fraley and Cedric Mullins were brought in to raise the floor of the group, while guys like Ryan Vilade and Richie Palacios are looking to settle into their offensive identities and be more selective. Going from a league-worst 33.9% to a better-than-average 26.0% is a major shift, and this improvement outpaces the roughly 3% reduction in overall swing rate so we know they’re being selective rather than just passive.

Three, maybe two

is the number of players we expect to begin the season on the Injured List. Relievers Steven Wilson and Manuel Rodriguez will begin the season on the 15-day and 60-day ILs respectively. Edwin Uceta may also begin the year on the IL, but he is progressing nicely after a slow start this spring due to shoulder inflammation.

Cedric Mullins and Richie Palacios are dealing with lower back tightness that may keep them out of game action for a little bit. Mullins worked out on Friday in Port Charlotte and felt better, so there doesn’t appear to be much concern about him being ready for Opening Day. Palacios is still a bit of a question mark given his injury history, but there’s plenty of time for him to rest – and he may be slated for AAA anyways. Chandler Simpson is dealing with some hamstring soreness, but the team is being overly cautious and he doesn’t appear to be in danger of beginning on the IL at the moment.

The San Diego Padres posted another football score against the Cincinnati Reds in their meeting at the Peoria Sports Complex on Sunday. Logan Gillaspie made the start in place of Nick Pivetta and he was able to do so without the pressure of a tight game. Gavin Sheets connected on a three-run home run in the bottom of the first inning to put the Padres in front and they never looked back. San Diego won the Cactus League matchup 14-3. Gillaspie completed four innings of shutout baseball and allowed just two hits over that span. He also walked two and had two strikeouts. Kyle Hart picked up where Gillaspie left off and threw 2.2 innings without allowing a run or a hit while striking out three.

Padres pitchers held the Reds off the board through 6.2 innings and in that span the offense posted four runs with the home run by sheets and an RBI-triple by Jake Cronenworth in the bottom of the second inning. The San Diego offense added a run in the seventh inning but erupted for nine runs in the eighth thanks to poor Cincinnati pitching and some timely hits.

The Padres will be back in action against the Texas Rangers at the Peoria Sports Complex at 1:10 p.m. today.

Padres News:

• Lincoln Zdunich of Gaslamp Ball believes Ty France may find his way onto the San Diego roster thanks in large part to his defense and his ability to hit left-handed pitching. France is competing for roster spots with multiple position players, but he is competing for first base reps with Sheets, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Andujar and Jose Miranda. AJ Cassavell of Padres.com posted a similar report, but he believes Sheets’ power sets him apart and above the other first base and designated hitter options.

• Sung-Mun Song was the player who the fans believed could benefit the most from Padres regulars playing in the World Baseball Classic. However, his health has been an issue early in his tenure in San Diego and without the additional reps and swings at the plate he may find himself competing for a roster spot and playing time like so many others.

• Jake Cronenworth has had some success in his couple of opportunities to hit leadoff in spring. If he can continue to find success at the plate and can play solid in the field, he could be poised for a career season in 2026.

• Dennis Lin of The Athletic provided his second roster projection for the 2026 Padres and his focus was on Fernando Tatis Jr. and where the best hitter on the team will bat in the lineup.

Baseball News:

• Free agency for Zack Littell came to an end Sunday when the right-hander agreed to a deal with the Washington Nationals.

WBC News:

• Juan Soto helped the Dominican Republic walk-off the Netherlands in a 12-1 mercy rule win.

• Cuba added another win to its WBC record and is poised to take on Puerto Rico as two 2-0 teams.

• Italy notched another WBC win, showing they are not going to concede Pool B to the US and Mexico.

• Israel topped Nicaragua with solid pitching that only allowed two hits.

• Japan moved to the top of Pool C with a win over Australia.

• Mexico battered Brazil and won their contest 16-0 on Sunday.

We finally get to the end of the positions on the hitting side of the equation. Keep in mind, we are trying to include all of the relevant candidates to be on the opening day roster. Fans and analysts alike sometimes forget the dimension of time. In other words, what the roster looks like on March 26th will not be what it looks like on June 26th and August 26th. It is a fair expectation that every profiled player will get a crack at the big league level at some point in 2026.

For our purposes, we will profile only two right fielders even though multiple players can fit in right field at some point. It would be inaccurate to call right field the most important position on the diamond for the Astros, but it may come with more question marks than any other position. Cam Smith got off to a promising start last start but faded horribly down the stretch. Maybe the peripheral numbers can give us a clue as to who the real Cam Smith is.

The Astros gambled a bit when they dealt Jesus Sanchez for Joey Loperfido. Loperfido has looked good in short bursts on the big league level, but has yet to play an entire season in the big leagues. He has an option left, so he still might spend time in Sugar Land. We are using the same numbers we have used for the other articles and we will use the same for pitchers as well.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.

• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.

• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.

• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.

• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.

Cam Smith

If we take the 2025 numbers at face value then we would surmise that Smith should be pretty close to a league average hitter because he is essentially average in almost every indicator. He is slightly above average in hard contact and slightly below in contact. Everything else is drop dead average. He produced a 90 wRC+ last season and that is a similar stat to OPS+. but it includes a base running element. So, I would expect growth even if there is no improvement in the underlying numbers.

The question is how much growth. He demonstrated more power and more contact in the minors, so maybe he finds his way to the aggregate numbers. If that is the case then he would be an above average hitter. We would be looking at gains in contact rates and power production. That might bump him up to .250/.325/.400. Couple that with his strong defensive potential and you are looking at maybe a three win player in 2026.

If there is one player that could be a huge growth candidate it is Smith. He was a first round pick, so he showed impressive skills at some point and with the limited exposure in the minors, he never had the opportunity to develop those tools. So, we might be looking at those tools develop at the big league level, so he is the hardest player to predict.

Joey Loperfido

I know it is tempting to get excited over potential. I remember watching Loperfido in Spring Training of 2024 and thinking I liked the cut of gib. As an analyst I have to look at the total information available and make a dispassionate assessment. Most of these numbers are at the minor league level. They are virtually average across the board with some a little higher or little lower. Yet, all of them are pretty close to average.

When you are average across the board in all of the indicators then you are likely average overall. There is nothing wrong with average. Some of my favorite Astros were historically mediocre. Loperfido could end up being one of those guys. He can play a multitude of positions and that will help him stick at the big league level eventually.

Over at Battle Red Blog I write a feature called “The Value of Things.” The general idea is that every player has an appropriate value. Loperfido is probably best cast as a fourth outfielder and occasional first baseman. If you have a fourth outfielder that can play all three spots and produce a 100 OPS+ you are probably going to be pretty happy. If that is one of your starting corner outfielders you probably won’t be happy. So, the key to enjoying Loperfido is understanding who he is and who he is likely to be. Expect a star and you will be disappointed. Expect a useful bench guy and you will probably be pretty happy.

The 2026 World Baseball Classic is well underway.

Early mornings, extra innings, slaughter rules, ludicrous dingers from Kyle Schwarber, and walkoffs—so far, this tourney has had it all. With pool play set to wrap up in a few days, I thought now would be a good time to take stock into how the Red Sox’s best representatives have been.

That’s a fool’s errand, though, isn’t it?

With all due respect to Nate Eaton and company, one man in particular has been setting the world (baseball classic) on fire, as you may know already.

His name is Masataka Yoshida.

In a trio of pool play games, the lefty outfielder/DH option for Boston has logged an OPS nearly reaching 1.800. He’s driven in six runs thanks to three extra base hits, most notably the clutch two-run home run he notched to put Japan on the board against Australia on Sunday. The go-ahead blast with two outs in the seventh gave the Japanese the lead, one that they didn’t surrender afterwards.

At this rate, Yoshida could break the record for the most RBI in a single World Baseball Classic. That high water mark of 13 was set by…well, Masataka Yoshida in 2023’s iteration of the tournament! Masa’s hot start in 2026 has added onto his impressive resume in this tournament; last time around, he went 9 for 22 at the dish en route to Japan’s third WBC title.

Now granted, I’ve still got some reservations about Yoshida heading into the new MLB season. His tenure in Boston hasn’t exactly been consistent, to put it charitably, and his spot in the everyday lineup isn’t clear. I can only tolerate so many grounders to second. To boot, there’s only so much we can deduce from his performance against—respectfully—teams like Australia. It’s not like he’s doing this against prime Pedro right now.

He doesn’t pick the opponents he faces, though, and the pair of teams he’s already faced aren’t exactly full of scrubs. Even if he were consistently playing against a bunch of slapdick prospects (to use a baseball quote), perhaps the most notable thing with Yoshida’s play so far is that there hasn’t been any sign of his shoulder bothering him—and if it is bothering him, he’s doing a damn good job of hiding that fact. The shoulder issue kept him on the injured list for a big part of 2025; if he’s put that trouble behind him, maybe he can turn a corner for the Red Sox in the final years of his contract.

But let’s just break down what we’ve seen in the (albeit limited) sample size this month into the most simple terms possible: Masataka Yoshida—a guy who literally has a ground ball rate over 50% over his major league career—is not not hitting into ground balls half of the time during the WBC after major issues with his shoulder. As a matter of fact, he’s hitting piss missiles into the power alley. Yoshida is at his best when he’s hitting piss missiles into the power alley.

Is this smoke and mirrors? I don’t think that’s an unfair a fair question to ask.

Is this a run that can set him up for some sort of success in 2026? Again, I think it’s very fair to ask that.

Keep on keepin’ on, Macho Man.

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The top two teams in Pool A square off today as Cuba and Puerto Rico each look to move to 3-0.

Puerto Rico has been remarkably stingy thus far, and my Cuba vs. Puerto Rico predictions expect its run-prevention skills to play a big part in another winning effort.

Let’s take a closer look at my World Baseball Classic best bets for Monday, March 9.

Cuba vs Puerto Rico prediction

Cuba vs Puerto Rico best bet: Puerto Rico -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

It’s been feast or famine for Cuba in this tournament. The Cubans have struck out as many times as they’ve reached base through two games (18), with four homers helping mask a sub-.300 on-base percentage.

Puerto Rico has done a great job of keeping the ball in the park, giving up zero homers through two games. It's also allowed the lowest batting average and ranks first in team ERA.

The Puerto Ricans should neutralize Cuba’s lineup while generating enough offense to separate, capitalizing on Cuba’s high team WHIP.

Cuba vs Puerto Rico same-game parlay (SGP)

Puerto Rico has conceded three runs in this tournament. It's keeping the ball in the park and limiting walks, making it tough for opponents to score.

Cuba’s profile isn’t as spotless as Puerto Rico’s, but it's only allowed five runs over two games. We’re unlikely to see fireworks.

Heliot Ramos has yet to pick up a hit at the World Baseball Classic, but he is in a good spot. He has historically performed much better against left-handed pitching, and he’ll face a lefty starter in Julio Robaina.

Heliot Ramos star player prop

Heliot Ramos best bet: Hit a home run (+500 at DraftKings)

Robaina relies on location rather than overpowering batters with elite stuff. If he misses his spot, Ramos is certainly capable of taking him yard. He owns a career OPS of .849 against lefties and excels against the fastball, which he should see plenty of.

Cuba vs Puerto Rico opening odds

• Moneyline: Cuba +285 | Puerto Rico -370
• Run line: Cuba +2.5 (-105) | Puerto Rico -2.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110)

How to watch Cuba vs Puerto Rico and game info

Cuba vs Puerto Rico weather

81 degrees F, 14 mph winds, mostly cloudy. 

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning.

Shawn McFarland has observations from camp for the Texas Rangers as manager Skip Schumaker has tough decisions to make.

Evan Grant checks out how the Rangers fared in a messy game against the Angels yesterday in Cactus League action.

Grant writes that Schumaker injected a dose of perspective into camp by bringing brain tumor survivor Cade Spinello in as a guest over the weekend.

Fred Zinkie offers up an AL West preview ahead of the 2026 season, as does Matt Snyder at CBS Sports.

Grant writes about roster hopeful Peyton Gray having a standout spring for Texas as the 31-year-old longshot hopes to grab a spot in the bullpen

Grant notes that the Rangers moved Jordan Montgomery to the 60-day IL and claimed the speedy Dairon Blanco from KC.

Kennedi Landry writes that the No. 5 spot in the rotation is still up for grabs in a battle that has been between Jacob Latz and Kumar Rocker this spring.

Grant writes that, after throwing live batting practice on Saturday, Marc Church is nearing the end of a long string of injuries.

And, McFarland names infield prospect Jack Wheeler as a powerful No. 16 on the DMN top 30 Rangers prospects list.

Have a nice day!

This offseason, the Orioles acted like a team focused on the present. They gave out a big contract to a slugger on the “wrong side” of thirty. They traded a pitcher with four years of control for an outfielder that will be gone in a year. And they swapped a package of four prospects and one pick for a pitcher they hope will work out. It was a lot of movement, and much of it was done with 2026 in mind.

But as the team’s president of baseball operations Mike Elias has explained throughout his tenure, he doesn’t make moves without considering the ripple effects. Trading away too many young players at once in pursuit of a short-term advantage will weaken the future. And Elias has told the fanbase that the full teardown and rebuild of the organization we experienced from 2019-21 was a one-time thing. Moving forward, he wants to win at the big league level while maintaining a “pipeline” of talent that constantly replenishes the roster in Baltimore.

The degree to which all of that has panned out to this point can be argued. The Orioles organization certainly feels stronger now than it was when Elias entered the fold. But the team’s lack of a playoff win and their steep dropoff in 2025 may have left a sour taste in the mouth of those that are tired of Elias’ theory of team building. A bounce back in the season ahead, including a deep-ish playoff run, could win him back some supporters.

On paper (which is all we have until games start), the Orioles are a solid major league squad entering the 2026 campaign. Most outlets project them for 85-87 wins, which would represent at least a 10-win improvement from 2025. If they are competitive, you would imagine Elias will supplement them with a few in-season additions that could add to that total. So in Elias’ mind, he has checked the box of building a competitive big league roster.

As the O’s have improved in the majors, the focus locally has understandably shifted away from the minors. But the talent level down on the farm is just as crucial to Elias’ philosophy. They don’t need to have the absolute top-ranked prospects, as they did when the likes of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman were coming up, but the organization does need to churn out worthwhile youngsters in order to avoid any of those lengthy dips in form up in Baltimore.

So, how does the future look? Not bad!

Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers are widely considered Top 100 prospects. Basallo has already signed a long-term deal to be a slugger in the middle of the Orioles lineup for years to come. He’s got a solid .333/.455/444 line this spring. Beavers had a huge season in Triple-A last year, forcing those in the industry to take notice. Both of them are among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, which would net the Orioles a draft pick in the process.

Don’t forget about Coby Mayo, a former top prospect in his own right, has plenty of years of team control remaining. Suddenly, the 24-year-old looks like one of the most important players on the team. He is going to get lots of playing time with Jordan Westburg on the shelf. So far this spring he is 8-for-19 with only one strikeout.

Outfielder Nate George and pitcher Trey Gibson won’t make as immediate of an impact, but they have both made it onto radars around the league in the last year. Some outlets have them listed among their “Top 100” prospects, or thereabouts. The Orioles have given each a taste of big league camp this year and they are viewed as future impact players for the club

Some newer faces are also flashing. Ike Irish, the O’s top pick in last year’s draft, is 4-for-4 in big league camp. Wehiwa Aloy, another high pick from 2025, is 2-for-3 with a walk and has gotten rave reviews out of camp. And there is, of course, the crazy line from Vance Honeycutt; 5-for-6 with four home runs.

On top of that, we are still waiting for the wave of talent to come from the Orioles, led by Elias, finally getting involved in Latin America. Basallo is the first major arrival, but more are coming. Lefty Luis De León could make it to Baltimore this summer. Infielder Aron Estrada could be here the year after. And big righty Esteban Mejia is one to watch with his big fastball. Oh, and the Orioles just signed one of the best classes of international free agents back in January.

Although it is an imperfect measure (and a few months out of date at this point), FanGraphs attempts to quantify the value of each minor league system. It is based on their perceived quality of each prospect. The Orioles have the most players that FG actually considers to be prospects, and they have the seventh-most valuable farm system in all of baseball. The average value of those prospects is below average, indicating that the Orioles are loaded up on fringier talents, but those sorts of players can be useful depth or packaged together for an impact player.

The main goal of Elias and the Orioles has to be to win games at the major league level. They didn’t do that enough in 2025, which forced them to adjust their approach to this past offseason. We saw a more aggressive version of the team’s front office. But they did it without abandoning the future. In fact, the players coming down the pike are pretty exciting. Hopefully they will be supplementing a contending team in the years to come.

Hello and happy Monday, folks. It’s amazing that we can finally see grass again. I was going to make “How happy are you that the snow is melting?” my question of the day, but there are more pressing matters for the Boston Red Sox to attend to.

What in the world is up with Romy Gonzalez, man? As our fearless leader Dan Secatore wrote in his news and links story this weekend, the infielder is exploring the possibility of surgery to remedy the issue with his shoulder that’s been present since September. That sucks, man. Obviously we wish him nothing but good health, but is anybody here a doctor? Can someone clue me into what the hell is going on here? Fingers crossed, I suppose.

Talk about what you want, be good to each other, and go Sox.

Meet the Mets

In the televised Spring Subway Series, Freddy Peralta and the Mets defeated Ryan Weathers and the Yankees by the score of 10-4.

Freddy Peralta isn’t just an incredibly good pitcher, he’s also a pretty solid hang in the clubhouse.

In International Met News, Juan Soto hit a mercy rule walk off home run for the Dominican Republic in the seventh inning of their win over the Netherlands.

Around the National League East

Coming off 186.2 innings of above average ball, starting pitcher Zack Littell and the Nationals came to terms on a one-year deal for a currently unknown amount of money.

Though serious enough to get him carted off the field, initial tests by the Braves on Joey Wentz haven’t showed any catastrophic injury to his leg.

For Justin Crawford and Don Mattingly, crossing paths on the Phillies is an encounter nearly 14 years in the making.

Around Major League Baseball

In the World Baseball Classic, Japan defeated Australia, undefeated Cuba took down Columbia, Italy moved to 2-0 with a win over Great Britain, Israel beat Nicaragua, Panama edged out Canada, and Mexico absolutely pummeled Brazil.

Tonight, Paul Skenes and the United States will face off against equally-undefeated Mexico at 8:00 PM eastern on Fox.

Not only is World Baseball Classic glory up for grabs for the Central American countries, but Olympic dreams hinge on these games too.

Presenting the ultimate National Anthem Standoff: Logan Allen vs. Logan Allen.

Now 44 years old and playing for the same Cuban team he represented in the inaugural WBC in 2006, Alexei Ramirez just can’t quit baseball.

It’s easy to say that you’re only going to make one start for Team USA, but for Tarik Skubal, actually committing to that is a bit harder.

The Texas Rangers moved Jordan Montgomery to the 60-day injured list and picked up Dairon Blanco off of waivers from the Royals.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 2013, Captain America hit a go-ahead grand slam to put the United States ahead of Team Italy.

Louis Varland is a 28-year-old, right-handed reliever. He was a 15th round draft pick by the Twins, in 2019.

Louis has one option year left. He will likely be arbitration eligible after this season (Super 2) and he would be free agent eligible after the 2030 season. He could be a Blue Jay for a long time

He made it to the majors with the Twins in 2022, making 5 starts, with a 3.81 ERA. In 2023, he pitched in 17 games, 10 starts with a 4.63 ERA. Then, in 2024, 16 more games, 7 starts, with a 7.61 ERA.

We traded Alan Roden and Kendry Rojas to the Twins to get Varland and Ty France. Roden played in 12 games for the Twins with a .158/.200/.263 average. Rojas finished last year in Triple-A St. Paul, with a 6.59 ERA in 8 games, 23 walks and 28 strikeouts in 27.1 innings.

Last year, he became a full-time reliever, pitching in 74 games, 1 start (as the opener). with a 2.97 ERA and 22 holds. Batters hit .244/.304/.383 against him. He doesn’t have much for left/right splits, against right-handed batters he had a .662 OPS, .716 vs left-handed batters.

And, of course, he pitched a lot in the playoffs. He threw in 15 of our 18 playoff games. I’m sure he warmed up at least once in the other three. Louis had a 3.94 ERA with 17 strikeouts, 3 walks and 4 home runs, in the 16 innings. Once you get your manager’s confidence, he’s going to use you until your arms falls off in the playoffs.

He throws a lot of pitches, for a reliever. A Four Seamer (45.3% of the time, averaging 98.1 mph), a Knuckle curve (37.4%), a Slider (7.1%) Sinker (5.5%) and Changeup (4.6%). If I could throw a ball 98 mph, I don’t think I’d do anything else. The slider got hit hard, .677 slugging average against.

Baseball Savant tells us that Varland was very good in:

• Fastball Velocity: 95th percentile.
• Chase %: 86th percentile.
• Strikeout %: 65th percentile.
• Groundball %: 90th percentile.
• Extension: 92nd percentile.

But he wasn’t good at:

• Hard Hit %: 23rd percentile.
• Barrell %: 36th percentile.
• Average Exit velocity: 26th percentile.

Steamer thinks he’ll pitch in 67 games, 67 innings, with a 3.38 ERA.

Japan winning Pool C puts them in the final eight of the World Baseball Classic, and locks them into a quarterfinal matchup on Saturday night in Miami against the Pool D runner-up, likely either the Venezuela or the Dominican Republic.

Though nothing has yet been announced regarding Japan’s pitching plans for the next round, Saturday would presumably be when Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes his next start, after throwing 55 pitches in 2 2/3 innings in Friday’s tournament opener.

In other potential Dodgers rotation forecasting, Roki Sasaki threw a bullpen session on Sunday at Camelback Ranch and will make his next start on the backfields rather than in a Cactus League game, per Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic.

Sasaki’s spring thus far has been a mixed bag, incorporating new pitches into his repertoire. He has as many walks (five) as strikeouts in his two games, during which he allowed seven runs in 3 1/3 innings. Sasaki last pitched last Tuesday, which would likely line him up for his next outing, wherever it is, to come on Monday or Tuesday.

Andrew Toles last played professional in 2018, his third season with the Dodgers. In the next seven seasons since then, the Dodgers renewed Toles’ contract and placed him on the restricted list. Toles did not earn a salary in those years nor did he count against the 40-man roster, but was able to receive health insurance, as he dealt with various mental health issues.

This year the Dodgers cannot similarly renew Toles’ contract and place him on the restricted list according to major league rules, per Ed Guzman at the Los Angeles Times, to whom the Dodgers released his statement:

“We’ve been in contact with the Toles family and have worked together on how to best move forward,” the Dodgers said in a statement to The Times. “Continuing with the previous setup was no longer possible due to eligibility. The Toles family has asked that Andrew’s privacy be respected. Out of respect to the Toles family, we will not comment any further.”

Walker Buehler, who pitched last season for the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies, is in San Diego Padres camp this year as a non-roster invitee. I found this note from last week illuminating regarding the length of recovery time after Tommy John surgery, and the general taxing nature of pitching. From Dennis Lin at The Athletic:

It has been a roller coaster offseason at the hot corner in Milwaukee. It was a big question at the beginning of last season, too, but Caleb Durbin quickly snagged the job once given an opportunity and put up a very nice rookie season in which he was about a league-average hitter, stole 18 bases, and played better-than-expected defense on his way to a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting.

Well, things change quickly sometimes in Milwaukee. Sensing an opportunity, the Brewers shipped Durbin (along with Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler, who were the primary backups to all three of the Brewers’ non-first-base infield positions last season) to the Boston Red Sox for a pair of starting pitchers, Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan, and utility infielder David Hamilton. The Milwaukee front office perhaps also felt a bit squeamish about some of Durbin’s underlying metrics — there are some definite parallels between Durbin’s 2025 season and Joey Ortiz’s 2024 season, and of course, we know what happened to Ortiz in his second year.

While the Hamilton part of the return from Boston surely answered some of the question of “who is going to play third base now that we traded our entire 2025 depth chart in one deal,” it did not answer them all. That led to a week of wild speculation: was Jett Williams going to start the season at third? Could we be shocked by an aggressive promotion of someone else, like Brock Wilken or Cooper Pratt?

Well, no. The Brewers signed a real, actual major league third baseman exactly one week after trading Durbin, and he tops the depth chart, even if he comes with some questions.

Luis Rengifo

Rengifo comes to the Brewers after seven seasons with the Los Angeles Angels. Returns from Rengifo have been mixed, but he had three straight seasons from 2022-24 where he was an above-average offensive player, and he’s got two major league seasons on his record of more than 15 homers.

Those seasons are fading into the rearview mirror at this point, though: he last hit double-digit homers in 2023. While Rengifo is still in what we’d consider his “prime” based on his age, he struggled badly at the plate in 2025 after missing half of the 2024 season. I went pretty deep in the wake of the trade to try to figure out whether Rengifo’s bad 2025 was the new normal or whether we should expect him to return to the offensive levels of earlier in his career. (The conclusion there: if he can get his launch angle back up — it was around 9-10 degrees in 2022 & 2023 and around 6-7 degrees in 2024 & 2025 — then the homers might return, but we shouldn’t expect him to hit .300 like he did in 2024, a fluky BABIP year.)

Defense is a question with Rengifo, too. The advanced metrics, which should always be taken with a grain of salt, are all over the place. He’s played more second base than third in his career, and has sometimes graded out as a good defensive player and sometimes as a bad one.

The mathematician in me says that we should expect Rengifo to be about a league-average player on both sides of the ball (but please keep in mind that I haven’t had a math class since 2006). The Brewers can handle that. Rengifo is on a one-year deal, he’s not making a ton of money, and there are exciting reinforcements coming from the minor league system, maybe even this year. Rengifo should be able to handle things until the next generation is ready.

David Hamilton

Here I am talking about David Hamilton, third baseman. Guess how many times Hamilton has played third base in a regular-season game as a professional?

If you said “one,” then yes, you are correct, even if one is generous: he played third base for 1 1/3 innings of a game last season. That’s it. Never once in the minor leagues, nor in college, nor in the Arizona Fall League, nor in summer ball in the Cape Cod League.

Hamilton is likely to replace Monasterio as Milwaukee’s true utility infielder this season — in Hamilton’s two-plus seasons, he’s appeared almost equally at second base and shortstop. The Brewers are pretty set at those two positions, barring a continuing collapse of Ortiz’s offense; if they feel comfortable keeping Ortiz’s bat in the lineup regularly, then Hamilton’s opportunities are going to come most often at third. Hamilton is quite a good defensive middle infielder, so there is no reason to think that he won’t take to third, where he has been playing almost exclusively this spring (six of his seven starts have been at third base).

There aren’t a ton of reasons for optimism in Hamilton’s offensive game — he was almost a league-average offensive player in 2024, but he was bad in 2025, and the biggest difference between those seasons was not in anything you’d see on Statcast but in BABIP (.316 in 2024, .234 in 2025). Hamilton is pretty good at not chasing bad pitches, something the Brewers surely liked about him, and there’s a little bit more power in there than you might expect (he has 14 home runs in 511 plate appearances across the last two seasons).

The other thing the Brewers can (and will) do to help Hamilton is to essentially never let him face a left-handed pitcher: for his career, Hamilton is a .200/.233/.257 hitter against lefties and .226/.291/.376 against righties. Rengifo, a switch-hitter, has a career OPS that is 84 points higher against left-handed pitching, so a soft platoon is certainly in play (though it should be noted that Rengifo’s .665 career OPS against right-handed pitching is essentially the same as Hamilton’s career .667 OPS against righties). Regardless of how much platooning happens at third, Hamilton will never start against lefties.

Hamilton should function well as an occasional starter against right-handed pitching at third while backing up both Ortiz and Brice Turang in the middle of the infield. If he has to do more than that, the Brewers will likely be asking too much of him.

Who else?

I mentioned earlier the people who were being speculated about as being in the mix after the Brewers traded Durbin: Jett Williams’ future probably lies in the outfield, but he’s certainly capable of playing in the infield somewhere, and he is the furthest along of any of the Brewers’ big infield prospects. I went more in-depth on Williams in our second base preview, but I expect he’ll play somewhere (or, maybe, everywhere) in Milwaukee before the 2026 season ends.

I also mentioned Eddys Leonard in the second base preview. He’s played more at second in his career, but he’s appeared often at third as well. We’ll see if Leonard is even still in the organization when the season starts — there probably isn’t a place for him on the Brewers’ major league roster, and he’s an accomplished enough minor leaguer that he might be someone who can get a better opportunity elsewhere.

As far as prospects, Dave also looked atBrock Wilken as a long shot to get the job after Durbin was traded and before Rengifo was signed. Wilken has never played above Double-A, and while he’s probably okay as a defensive player, he’s not going to be nearly as good as Hamilton and likely not as good as Rengifo. Wilken has shown real power and patience in the minors, but he likely needs more seasoning.

Long term, the most likely answer here is that one of the Brewers’ big shortstop prospects ends up at third base. Who will that be? The consensus at this point seems to be that between Cooper Pratt, Jesús Made, and Luis Peña, Pratt is the best defensive player (though some think Made could get there). And while we’ve gotten used to the rocketship trajectory of Made and Jackson Chourio the last couple years, Peña is very young, and while he has shown some advanced offensive skills, if you say he won’t make the majors until he’s 22 — still young! — that still pushes him back to 2029. That puts this question off for a while, at least for him.

Maybe the 2027 Brewers have some sort of Turang-Pratt-Made alignment. Maybe Ortiz is still in the picture. Maybe Pratt gets traded. This will work itself out, but I don’t think we need to give a whole lot of thought to Pratt or Made as it relates to the 2026 Milwaukee Brewers season.

Conclusion

Expect to see Rengifo most often, with Hamilton starting a couple of times a week against right-handed pitching. I’m hopeful that Rengifo’s production will bounce back to about league average. Hamilton will likely not get there, but he can run into them occasionally, and he’ll be a good, reliable defensive player.

If Rengifo continues to struggle as he did in 2025, especially if he’s not playing high-level defense, Milwaukee will start looking to their minor league system for alternatives, but I think we’d need to get close to two full bad months from him before that happens. Hopefully, though, his bad BABIP luck from last season turns around and he starts hitting fly balls again, giving the Brewers a credible power threat in the lower part of their batting order.

It’s kind of unfortunate for Yairo Padilla that he came up at the same time as Rainiel Rodriguez. Some sites had him as the better prospect entering 2025. And then, well, 2025 happened. I think the perception of Padilla was certainly negatively affected by Rodriguez’s rise, even though that doesn’t really make sense, just because they were bunched together and then they very much weren’t. Now, I don’t know that Padilla will rank radically different for me, but he also wasn’t on my top 20 last year, so I don’t feel like I’ve downgraded him after a pretty positive year. Here’s the list:

1. JJ Wetherholt
2. Liam Doyle
3. Rainiel Rodriguez
4. Quinn Mathews
5. Jurrangelo Cjintje
6. Joshua Baez
7. Leonardo Bernal
8. Jimmy Crooks
9. Brandon Clarke
10. Tink Hence
11. Tekoah Roby
12. Tanner Franklin
13. Brycen Mautz
14. Nathan Church
15. Cooper Hjerpe
16. Ixan Henderson
17. Yairo Padilla

Comparable Player Poll

I think this is going to be the last comparable player poll. I already know the next two players I will add. Or I should say, I know two of the three people I will be adding to the vote. Obviously, one of them is this vote, so I certainly would hope I know who I’m adding right now. The third is between the two people below you. I haven’t decided if the winner of this vote is going on the next vote or the last vote. Both of these players have won comparable player polls and short of removing a player from the voting, which I might honestly still do, I’d kind of be guessing which one to add, which I’d prefer not to do.

Blake Aita was a 6th round draft pick in the same draft as Dutkanych, but not by the Cardinals. Drafted by the Red Sox, his command-oriented approach led him to play about half the season in Low A and half in High A. He posted average K rates, but didn’t walk many. He pitched well enough to earn a trip to AA, but I suspect the depth of the pitching will see him in High A to begin the year. He’ll be 23.

Andrew Dutkanych is someone you guys are very familiar with if you’ve been voting on every poll. He’s already been in two of these and won both of them. He was a 7th round draft pick, drafted with the full knowledge that he had recently undergone Tommy John surgery and thus was not going to be able to pitch much last year. He pitch in both rookie league and Low A, basically a glorified reliever, but missed some bats and some of the strike zone. He will be 22 and probably repeating Low A.

VOTE HERE

New Add

I always try to add a relief prospect by the 18th vote, and I do that because we’ve actually had a relief prospect be the 18th prospect in the system twice. If I add any doubt whatsoever about adding a relief prospect, it was removed when Luis Gastelum completely dominated the vote. Like he received 123 votes and the next highest total was 12. He should be in the voting for sure.

Jesus Baez, IF – 21

Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+

Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding

There’s always one guy who I add to the voting too early. There’s a high upside, but high variance prospect who I’m not totally sure how this crowd feels about, and I add them as early as possible just so that I don’t add them too late. Well Baez has been on the vote since the 6th vote and I have long since run out of things to say about Baez. You get the picture. Jesus Baez personally ran Keith Law’s mother over with a car, he has a rep for chasing, and yet statistically, nothing looks bad from my eyes.

Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19

Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA/2.41 FIP/3.29 xFIP

Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/2.50 FIP/3.14 xFIP

Scouting: 40/45 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 30/50 Change, 35/50 Command

It is kind of crazy to be this late in the game and have guys like Baez and Fajardo still be in the voting and it not be some gross misjustice. Like just think about the fact that there is a 19-year-old who pitched very well in both rookie league and Low A and you can still vote for this guy at 18 or 19 or 20 and I just think this guy is already on the list in the other three years I’ve done this. I don’t think this group was even that high on Padilla, but by 15 last year, the other options were just not that exciting. We still have kind of exciting options at 18!

Luis Gastelum, 24 – RHP

Stats (AA): 46 G, 62.2 IP, 35.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 48.3 GB%, .343 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/2.19 FIP/2.31 xFIP

Scouting: 45/45 Fastball, 40/40 Slider, 65/65 Change, 50/55 Command

Yes, Gastelum is posting those numbers with effectively one pitch. I mean yeah you can see he has other pitches, but the changeup is how he strikes out over a third of batters he faces. As one can imagine, when you imagine someone throwing a changeup in your mind, it’s not going to look like Gastelum’s change. It looks more like what you expect a breaking ball to do. That is in fact what Mets’ announcer Gary Cohen called it in a recent spring training game.

Pete Hansen, LHP – 25

Stats (AA): 26 GS, 137.1 IP, 21.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, 46.2 GB%, .306 BABIP, 3.93 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.71 xFIP

Scouting: 35/35 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 40/40 Curve, 50/55 Change, 55/60 Command

What I find particularly fascinating about Hansen’s scouting report is that one would think Fangraphs was low on him, but they aren’t. They definitely aren’t. They ranked him 10th in the system last season. But that 35 fastball grade kind of pops out at you. It’s the kind of grade you give to a prospect that you aren’t typically high on, so I suppose it provides an insight into what FG thinks of the importance of command. You don’t usually see 60 command prospects.

Blaze Jordan, 23 – 1B/3B

Stats (AA): 176 PAs, .320/.415/.513, 12.5 BB%, 10.8 K%, .193 ISO, .333 BABIP, 167 wRC+, 145 DRC+

AAA: 368 PAs, .248/.291/.423, 5.7 BB%, 11.1 K%, .175 ISO, .247 BABIP, 83 wRC+, 101 DRC+

Scouting: 40/50 Hit, 40/50 Game Power, 60/60 Raw Power, 30/30 Speed, 40/45 Fielding

The problems that Blaze Jordan needs to overcome in order to be a productive hitter strike me as very similar to the problems that Alec Burleson once had. Burleson flew through the minors, had a better hit tool, and had the platoon advantage in the majority of his plate appearances, but broadly speaking – guy who doesn’t strike out much needs to be more selective with his swing choices – that describes Blaze Jordan too.

Colton Ledbetter, 24 – OF

Stats (AA): 535 PAs, .265/.337/.378, 9.5 BB%, 23.9 K%, .114 ISO, .339 BABIP, 112 wRC+

Scouting: 30/35 Hit, 40/50 Game Power, 55/55 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 50/50 Fielding

Story is pretty clear cut on Ledbetter. He previously had a bit of a strikeout problem, but with the strikeouts came a lot of power. At AA last season, Ledbetter managed to get his strikeouts to a more reasonable level, but it did come with significantly less power. His goal I assume will be to merge the power with a more reasonable strikeout rate.

Chen-Wei Lin, 24 – RHP

Stats (Low A): 12 GS, 38.2 IP, 27.2 K%, 17.2 BB%, 50 GB%, .283 BABIP, 4.89 ERA/3.69 FIP/4.17 xFIP

High A: 4 GS, 9.2 IP, 41.7 K%, 18.8 BB%, 50 GB%, .412 BABIP, 9.31 ERA/4.80 FIP/2.76 xFIP

Scouting: 60/70 Fastball, 40/45 Slider, 40/60 Change, 30/40 Command

The scouting is definitely reflective of a relief prospect, but by no means are the Cardinals giving up on him starting. Mostly because you can actually start if you have a 70 fastball and a 60 change, that is a lethal combo. As you can also see by the scouting, he’s not there yet with either pitch. The slider isn’t great, but just having a third option to go to with two elite pitches can still work as a starter. He’ll need better command of course.

Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF

No stats

Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 25/50 Game Power, 40/55 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 25/50 Fielding

No one carrying tool for Mitchell, but just an overall well-rounded profile, which also happens to be kind of a boring scouting profile. You can dream on a better power tool even if it came with a worse hit tool, but everything being average or above average all adds up to a potentially great player, just not real eye-popping in the way ranking prospects tends to reward.

Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B

Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+

High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+

Scouting (Baseball Savant): /45 Hit, /55 Power, /55 Arm, /45 Field

I will once again mention that those scouting grades are his potential, but that Savant has not posted the “current” scouting grades. Although if you think about it, the current is not super relevant for a guy in High A. You can kind of draw your own conclusions based on the stats to some extent. Also you don’t necessarily care if they don’t have trouble with swing-and-miss at the lower levels, you want to know if he will have trouble. Ortiz cutting down his K rate upon promotion strikes me as a fairly good sign.

Tai Peete, OF – 20

Stats (High A): 529 PAs, .217/.288/.404, 8.7 BB%, 30.6 K%, .187 ISO, .282 BABIP, 79 wRC+, 79 DRC+

Scouting: 20/30 Hit, 30/50 Game Power, 50/60 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 45/55 Fielding

One thing I’ll note about scouting grades, and this is super relevant to Peete I think, is that the potential isn’t necessarily static. That does not mean his 30 grade potential hit tool is always going to be a 30 grade. From where the hit tool stands now, the scout can’t see better than a 30 in his future. But Peete can make improvements and changes. Joshua Baez probably had a 30 hit tool as his potential before last season. But he changed and made improvements.

VOTE HERE

Jaylon Thompson reviews Seth Lugo’s outing in the World Baseball Classic.

Lugo looked sharp in the early going. He recorded two strikeouts in the first inning while displaying his extensive pitching arsenal. There was an emphasis to utilize his slurve and four-seam fastball.

Both pitches were effective. Lugo registered six swings and five called strikes with his slurve. Meanwhile, the fastball averaged 92.7 mph, an uptick from earlier in spring training.

At times, Lugo touched 95 mph while navigating the Colombia lineup.

Lugo entered this offseason looking to pitch with more velocity. He was able to command the strike zone with his fastball early in counts on Friday. As a result, he finished his outing with a combined 28% whiff rate on his pitches.

The Royals also made the first wave of reassignments, sending catchers Blake Mitchell and Ramon Ramirez, outfielder Carson Roccaforte, and pitchers Ben Kudrna, Chazz Martinez, and Steven Zobac to minor league camp.

Perla Paredes at MLB.com writes that younger players are amazed by Salvador Perez’s work ethic.

“He’s an amazing leader,” Jensen said of Perez. “[I’ve learned] how to prepare myself every day and the work ethic. To play as long as he’s played and continue to be playing, it takes preparation, it takes taking care of your body.”

While the young catchers are learning Perez’s preparation from the plate, the Royals’ pitchers see his influence from the mound. For left-hander Matt Strahm, Perez is a great target, and his presence immediately threatens the running game.

“It’s been my favorite. I’ve thrown to some great catchers … but the target Salvy gives you is just massive, and none of them can replicate that,” said Strahm, Perez’s locker neighbor.

And that Mitch Spence is showing increased velocity.

For Royals manager Matt Quatraro, the difference was immediately noticeable.

“He’s thrown three to four miles an hour harder. That’s a huge jump,” Quatraro said. “And that gives hitters a lot less time to react.”

Spence said the increase in velocity is the result of offseason work focused on refining his mechanics and strengthening his arm.

“The biggest thing this offseason was just cleaning up some stuff with my mechanics,” Spence said. “I started going to physical therapy and just kind of got my arm stronger from the workout program. I think it just kind of clicked.”

She also writes that shortstop Daniel Vazquez is progressing in his development.

Vazquez said he is focusing less on results and more on the daily process that could shape the next step in his development. That includes physical conditioning, discipline and mental preparation — the same elements that fueled his surge last season.

“I’ve taken a lot from that,” Vazquez said. “Always respect the game, always play hard. And everything is about winning.”

Preston Farr looks at whiff rates in spring training for Royals pitchers.

How 2024 draftees, including Jac Caglianone, could impact this season.

Vinnie Pasquantino is keeping the espressos flowing for Team Italy.

The sons of Jose Contreras and Manny Ramirez impressed scouts in the WBC.

The Nationals sign pitcher Zack Littell to a one-year deal.

The Astros sign catcher Christian Vazquez to a minor league deal.

Kansas City native Joey Wentz injures his leg covering first base.

The Braves could target Ryan Mountcastle to replace Jurickson Profar.

Andrew Abbott will start on Opening Day for the Reds.

Logan Allen wins a national anthem standoff against Logan Allen.

Mets pitcher Freddy Peralta is looking for a seven- or eight-year deal.

Baseball teams are increasingly focusing on the mental side of the game.

The Tigers never made Tarik Skubal a long-term offer this offseason.

Ernest Hemingway was a big baseball fan.

Travis Kelce hits free agency today.

More people are watching the NHL in the weeks after the Olympics.

A report indicates that contractors with Meta are able to see intimate moments of users of AI glasses.

Climate change could lead to more turbulence on airplanes.

The future of horror movies is on YouTube.

Your song of the day is George Michael with Faith.