Category: MLB

Whenever the Nats have a chance to get to .500, they fall on their face. This is not just a gut feeling, we have the numbers to back this up. The Nats have lost the last 15 times they have had the chance to get to .500. They will have a chance to snap that embarrassing streak this afternoon against the O’s.

The Nats were in a similar spot the other day. They had just won a one run game thanks to a Daylen Lile home run. The boys were riding high, and were one win away from sweeping the Reds and getting to .500. However, they laid an egg in that contest, losing 15-1 in a game where Joey Wiemer had to pitch.

After a close win in front of an electric Nationals Park crowd, the team is in a familiar spot. They are one win away from that .500 record. Getting that one win has proven to be very elusive for this group. For the fanbase, it is getting frustrating. The difference between being 23-23 and 22-24 is not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. After all, it is a 162 game season.

However, getting to that .500 mark this deep into the season is meaningful for the fans, and it should be for the players as well. Spencer Nusbaum wrote an interesting piece about this the other day. His story had quotes from players and manager Blake Butera. 

There were mixed feelings about the concept. For some players, like Jacob Young, that .500 mark is very meaningful. Young talked about how close they have come to that milestone in the past couple years. However, it has eluded them, and eventually the team has faded down the stretch.

For newer members of the club, they are more committed to staying the course rather than focusing on the record. Blake Butera talked about how he cared more about what their record will be in August and September. He talked about how this team has bigger goals than to be .500 in the middle of May.

However, this team needs to get over the hump at some point. Sure, there are bigger fish to fry down the road, but getting to .500 is an important step in the process. For more process driven folks, it may not mean a ton, but it would mean a lot for this fanbase. Nats fans have not had a ton to cheer about since 2019, and getting to that big milestone would make them happy.

The Nats’ futility when they have a chance to get to .500 has gotten to the point where it is a running joke in the fanbase. People are making memes about it online and clowning the team for this dubious streak. It is just one of many things that has made Nats fans miserable over the past five years.

Getting to .500, especially against a rival like the O’s would be a big deal. It may not matter that much to Paul Toboni and Blake Butera, but it would mean a lot to the fans. Eventually they will break this streak, and this will be a .500 team. I trust the process and believe this team is heading in the right direction.

However, they need to get over that .500 hump at some point. Hopefully that happens sooner rather than later. In an ideal world, it would happen today. The Nats have Cade Cavalli on the mound against Chris Bassitt, who has struggled this year. On paper, the opportunity is there for the Nats. 

Fans are not going to believe until they see it get done. In the grand scheme of things, getting to .500 on May 16th does not matter that much. However, for this fanbase that has seen so much losing in recent years, it would be fun to feel like winners again, even if it is for a brief and fleeting moment.

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The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have been generous to Under backers this season, posting matching 18-24 O/U records.

My Red Sox vs. Braves predictions expect another low-scoring game in the cards Saturday night.

Let's take a closer look at my MLB picks for May 16.

Who will win Red Sox vs Braves today: Braves moneyline (-140)

Payton Tolle has struggled against teams hitting for high average, allowing three runs over five innings in both starts vs. Top-10 teams in average.

The Atlanta Braves lead the majors in BA, OPS, and SLG. They are loaded and have the ability to make life tough on Tolle.

He will need run support that he is unlikely to get. The Boston Red Sox rank 28th in wOBA, and 30th in ISO, against right-handed pitching

It'll be difficult for them to outperform the norms facing Bryce Elder, who owns an expected ERA of 2.91 and an xBA of .208.

COVERS INTEL: The Braves lead the league with 14 wins against left-handed starters, sporting a 14-3 record.

Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-115)

The best way to score runs in bulk is with the longball but hitting homers will be a difficult challenge for both teams in this matchup.

Elder has done a fantastic job of suppressing power, allowing 0.49 homers per nine innings while posting a remarkably strong 3.5% barrel rate. That puts him in the 90th percentile league-wide.

Tolle has conceded 0.72 homers per nine innings and ranks second among today's projected starting pitchers in soft contact rate.

It's difficult to square up either of these arms, and stringing together hit after hit is also a tall order given Elder and Tolle both rank 83rd percentile or higher in xBA.

Red Sox vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox +120 | Braves -140
• Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Red Sox vs Braves trend

The Braves have hit the Under in 23 of their last 35 home games (+12.2 units, 32% ROI) Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves.

How to watch Red Sox vs Braves and game info

Red Sox vs Braves latest injuries

Red Sox vs Braves weather

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Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers lost another frustrating one last night, falling 2-0 to the Astros.

Evan Grant writes about Justin Foscue’s big mistake late that cost the Rangers a chance to tie.

For most of the night Jack Leiter hung with a pitcher that nearly threw a no-hitter, so that’s something

Jacob deGrom will take the mound today seeking career in No. 100.

Josh Smith has viral meningitis, Jeff Wilson explains what that is and how long Smith could be out.

The Rangers expect Nathan Eovaldi to pitch his next scheduled start.

And finally the scorching hot Josh Jung is the latest guest on Evan Grant’s Rangers podcast.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers take on the Astros again today at 6:10 with deGrom on the mound for Texas.

Have a great weekend!

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The Los Angeles Dodgers aim to stay hot as they visit the reeling Los Angeles Angels for the second game of the Freeway Series on Saturday night.

The odds are giving the Angels a fair chance with ace Jose Soriano on the mound, but my Dodgers vs. Angels predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 16, think the adjustment is too much.

Who will win Dodgers vs Angels today: Dodgers (-136)

Anytime I can get short odds like this for the best roster in the MLB to defeat a squad that has lost 19 of its last 24 games, I’m buying.

The odds are such due to a perceived starting pitching advantage for the Los Angeles Angels, but Jose Soriano’s.248 BABIP and 94% left-on-base percentage both indicate his 1.66 ERA is at least part smoke and mirrors.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won five of Justin Wrobleski’s seven starts, and he sets up favorably against an Angels lineup with a lowly 70 wRC+ in May.

COVERS INTEL:Much of Jose Soriano’s success comes from his 28.4% K rate and 91st percentile whiff rate. The Dodgers are a tough matchup in that department, striking out only 20.8% of the time against RHP.

Dodgers vs Angels Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-105)

It might seem odd that I’m targeting the Over in a game where both starting pitchers have such stellar ERAs, but I’m betting on variance.

Soriano has been tremendous, but his 3.75 xERA is more indicative of future performance than his 1.66 ERA.

Wrobleski’s 2.42 ERA is undercut by his 4.08 xERA, 4.84 xFIP, and 92 Stuff+. He doesn’t make batters miss (second-percentile whiff rate), and the Angels are more respectable against southpaws (104 wRC+).

The Dodgers are in a bind after Blake Snell was scratched yesterday, forcing Dave Roberts to use eight bullpen arms.

Dodgers vs Angels odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -129 | Angels +117
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+124) | Angels +1.5 (-144)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)

Dodgers vs Angels trend

The Angels have lost 19 of their last 24 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Angels. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Angels.

How to watch Dodgers vs Angels and game info

Dodgers vs Angels latest injuries

Dodgers vs Angels weather

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Good morning everyone and happy Saturday!

The Mariners opened up the weekend with a sleepy 2-0 loss to the Padres last night, though it was great to see Emerson Hancock continue his strong start to the season.

Speaking of, we finally got a resolution to the six-man rotation situation yesterday:

Do you endorse this decision by the club? What would you have done?

In Mariners news…

• Kate provided a flurry of updates on currently-injured Mariners. Make sure to follow Lookout Landing on BlueSky to get these alerts in real-time!

• Right-handed reliever Matt Brash kicked off his rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma on Thursday, in which he struck out the side in a perfect inning of work.

• Over at Fangraphs, Ryan Blake wrote about the impact of Cal Raleigh’s injury on the Mariners’ hopes for another AL West title.
• Daniel Kramer looked at the Mariners’ options to replace Cal’s production while he’s on the injured list.
• In the latest episode of the Meet at the Mitt podcast, the squad worked through the M’s options for navigating Cal’s injury (Spotify link; Apple link)
• After a slow start to the season, Rainiers outfielder Brennen Davis is heating up. Ryan Divish at The Seattle Times has the latest on the post-hype breakout candidate.
• The Mason Peters experience continues to roll in Single-A. It shouldn’t be long before he’s making starts in Everett.

Around the league…

• Former Mariners closer and current Dodger Edwin Díaz was linked to illegal cockfighting in his native Puerto Rico, and he doesn’t seem remorseful about it.
• Orioles infielder Jordan Westburg underwent Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. He is expected to return in early 2027.
• Dodgers left-hander Blake Snell is out indefinitely with loose bodies in his throwing elbow.
• The Mets just can’t catch a break — right-handed starter Clay Holmes has a fractured fibula and is out for the foreseeable future.
• The Angels are activating oft-injured right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on Sunday to make his season debut against the Dodgers.
• Josh Nelson at Sox Machine told the story of Justin Ishiba’s plan to build a new ballpark for the Chicago White Sox.
• In Kansas City, Hawaiian Bros agreed to a promotion with the Royals in which they’d give a free lunch to every fan each time the club scored six or more runs during a home game. Well, the Royals did just that eight times in their first 17 home games, so the company had to adjust the promotion to prevent going out of business.

Anders’ pick…

• The City of Seattle announced that it is adding four more public restrooms in Pioneer Square.

After dropping five of six, the Yankees got back on track yesterday with a strong showing against the Mets at Citi Field. Cam Schlittler outdueled Clay Holmes, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Spencer Jones had timely hits, and Ben Rice’s solo shot off Craig Kimbrel was the icing on the cake in a 5-2 win. It did stink to hear in the postgame that Jones fractured Holmes’ fibula on a line drive though. Holmes is a great dude who has defied the odds by turning back into a good starter. Call this one of the morse somber citations of “That’s baseball, Suzyn.”

Here’s what else was going on around the American League’s best on Friday night.

Tampa Bay Rays (29-14) 7, Miami Marlins (20-25) 2

The Rays are on some kind of heater right now. On the morning of April 22nd, they were 12-11 after clinching a series loss to the Reds. Since then, they’ve now won 17 of their last 20, zooming to the front of the American League in a season when they weren’t really expected to compete. The bottom still might fall out to some degree, but these wins are banked and they keep on coming.

Remember when Janson Junk inexplicably shut out the Dodgers in a six-inning effort in LA a few weeks ago? That was fun. Anyway, the long-ago Yankees prospect got smoked by the Rays last night, with a Yandy Díaz two-run shot in the first setting the tone. They plated two more in the second and then another pair in the fourth on Taylor Walls’ double.

Southpaw Ian Seymour was the opener for Tampa Bay and was fine through two with a Connor Norby solo shot the lone real blemish on his line. Jesse Scholtens took over after that, and the righty evidently decided that this was a good strategy for him as well. During his five innings of work, he allowed a few hits but likewise held them to a Jakob Marsee homer with no one on base.

The Rays quickly atoned for that anyway, as the struggling Cedric Mullins muscled up a long ball to mark their seventh run against Junk. Casey Legumina finished off the Fish with two perfect frames. Tampa Bay has won 11 in a row at Tropicana Field.

Toronto Blue Jays (19-25) 2, Detroit Tigers (20-25) 3

You know, this once could’ve been a Trey Yesavage vs. Tarik Skubal matchup had the Tigers’ ace not gone down with an injury earlier in the month. Instead, the Tigers had an opener with Ty Madden expected to cover the bulk of the action in Skubal’s place. But not even Skubal’s effective replacement was safe — Madden left the ballgame after recording only one out in the third, as he got drilled by a comebacker from Yohendrick Piñango.

That scare aside, Detroit’s Johnny Wholestaff strategy worked out, exactly matching Yesavage’s effort of six innings with four hits and two runs allowed. Although Toronto’s tallies came on a two-run double by Andrés Giménez in the second, the Tigers’ bullpen kept them at bay from there. That gave their offense some leeway to eventually knot it up at 2-2 off Yesavage thanks to bases-loaded wild pitch to score Kevin McGonigle and then an RBI double from Riley Greene down the right-field line during Yesavage’s final frame.

Drew Anderson did yeoman’s work for Detroit with Madden unable to eat innings. So instead Anderson went four scoreless, limiting Toronto to a Brandon Valenzuela single that was quickly erased on a double-play ball from George Springer. Veteran Kenley Jansen threw a perfect ninth, giving his team an opportunity to walk it off.

The Tigers did just that. With the beleaguered Jeff Hoffman on for the Jays, Matt Vierling hit a one-out single and stole second, setting the stage for Spencer Torkelson. Toronto challenged the erstwhile No. 1 overall pick by intentionally walking Zach McKinstry to face him, so Tork thanked them by lining a walk-off single to right-center.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (18-26) 2, Atlanta Braves (31-14) 3: The Red Sox overcame homers against Connelly Early by Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II to tie it up at Truist Park against a fading Spencer Strider and reliever Tyler Kinley. It was a Marcelo Mayer solo shot that knotted it up at 2-2 in the seventh. The bullpens battled from there, with prominent arms like Aroldis Chapman, Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias keeping their opponents off the board. Tasked with stranding Boston’s zombie runner in the 10th, 20-year-old Didier Fuentes was up to the task, striking out Carlos Narváez and getting outs from Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Mickey Gasper. Mike Yastrzemski rewarded the rookie in Atlanta’s first at-bat of the 10th, doubling in Ha-Seong Kim to walk it off.

Seattle Mariners (22-24) 0, San Diego Padres (25-19) 2: Are the Mariners and Rangers really going to force us to cover the A’s, who still sit in first despite barely sitting over .500? We are getting closer by the day, even in mid-May. Former Yankee Randy Vásquez continued his surpisingly superb first month and a half, lowering his ERA to 2.68 with six scoreless frames, and fellow old friend Miguel Andujar got San Diego on the board with an RBI knock off Emerson Hancock. Andujar was involved in the second run as well, as his seventh-inning single was followed by a Ramón Laureano hit, and Andujar then scored on an out. Later, Mason Miller escaped a mostly-inherited jam by striking out Connor Joe with the bases loaded in the eighth. Then he got out of his own mess by striking out Mitch Garver and Brendan Donovan to end the game.

Texas Rangers (21-23) 0, Houston Astros (18-28) 2: I’ve made no secret of how much I long to exclude the Rangers from the Rivalry Roundup. Maybe almost getting no-hit by Spencer Arrighetti will be what send them on the role to “uncovered whatever.” Texas was held hitless until Justin Foscue broke up the gem with one out in the eighth. The Astros were backed up an Isaac Paredes blast against Jack Leiter, and Arrighetti made it hold up.

Cleveland Guardians (24-22) 6, Cincinnati Reds (24-21) 7: The Ohio Cup turned into a minor slugfest on Friday night, but not until the later innings. Entering the eighth, it was a 3-1 Reds lead, with a Rhys Hoskins dinger representing the sum of Cleveland’s offense. But in the Cincy half of the eighth, they scored three, two of them on a blast by Matt McLain. Atrocious relief by Graham Ashcraft and Brock Burke allowed the Guardians to get back into it on the strength of five (!) walks, a single, and a sacrifice fly. Now in a 6-5 ballgame, the Reds got insurance with productive outs following a Dane Myers double, and that came in clutch when Kyle Manzardo tripled in the ninth for Cleveland. Facing Angel Martínez and then rookie Travis Bazzana as the potential tying runs at the plate, Tejay Antone got two groundouts to end it (with a nice play by McLain for the end). To quote Marty Brennaman, this one belonged to the Reds, but boy was it an adventure to get there!

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After a shootout victory on Friday, the Philadelphia Phillies can wrap up a sixth straight series win when they play the second of their three-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

My Phillies vs. Pirates predictions and free MLB picks believe Philly has a distinct starting pitching advantage, which will prove the deciding factor on Saturday, May 16.

Who will win Phillies vs Pirates today: Phillies -1.5 (+100)

The Philadelphia Phillies send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound today, and he’s been lights-out in each of his last two starts.

Sanchez hasn’t allowed an earned run across 15 innings in wins over the Rockies and Athletics, surrendering only nine hits while striking out 17 against just one walk.

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ Bubba Chandler enters with a 4.62 ERA, with the Bucs winning just once in his last seven starts.

Philly has been hot in the last week, ranking fourth in runs and seventh in OPS. That, with Sanchez dealing, is a winning combo.

COVERS INTEL: Chandler will face MLB home run leader Kyle Schwarber for the first time in his career. Schwarber is mashing right-handed pitching at home this year, hitting .358 with a 1.094 SLG and a 1.563 OPS.

Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)

Philadelphia’s 11-9 slugfest win in the opener is more the outlier than the norm. The Phillies had gone Under the total in four straight before cashing the Over last night.

The Under is also a noticeable trend in the head-to-head matchup between these teams, going 6-3-0 in the last nine matchups.

The Pirates have just had trouble putting up runs lately against the Phils, scoring two runs or fewer in four of the last six. With Sanchez dealing, there’s a good chance it'll be five of seven, keeping that total low.

Phillies vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Phillies -156 | Pirates +150
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 | Pirates +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Phillies vs Pirates trend

Philadelphia has just four losses in its last 16 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Pirates.

How to watch Phillies vs Pirates and game info

Phillies vs Pirates latest injuries

Phillies vs Pirates weather

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Hickory starter Kamdyn Perry allowed a run in 4.2 IP, striking out six and walking one.

Hector Osorio homered and drew a pair of walks. Dewar Tovar was 2 for 5 with a homer. Yolfran Castillo had a hit and a stolen base. Paulino Satana had a pair of hits. Marcos Torres was 2 for 5 with a double.

Hickory box score

Hub City was down 17-1 after three innings and 23-1 after six innings before ultimately losing 23-11.

We will skip pitchers.

Malcolm Moore was 2 for 4 with a homer and a pair of walks. Paxton Kling was 2 for 5 with a double, a homer and a walk. Gleider Figuereo doubled. Rafe Perich doubled. Chandler Pollard had a pair of hits.

Hub City box score

Winston Santos started for Frisco, striking out six and walking four in four innings, allowing three runs.

Dylan Dreiling was 2 for 4 with a pair of walks and a stolen base. Ian Moller had a pair of doubles and a walk. Keith Jones II was 2 for 4 with a walk and a stolen base.

Frisco box score

David Davalillo made his AAA debut for Round Rock and had a rough go of it. In 4.1 IP, Davalillo walked five batters, hit four batters, threw a wild pitch, and allowed six runs. Robbie Ahlstrom allowed a run in 1.2 IP, walking one. Chris Martin, continuing his rehab assignment, faced six batters and allowed hits to four of them, though he gave up just one run. Luis Curvelo, beginning his rehab assignment, faced four batters and walked two of them. Alexis Diaz walked a batter and struck out a batter in 1.1 shutout innings.

Aaron Zavala homered.

Round Rock box score

Caden Scarborough, who has been on the injured list, made his 2026 debut for the ACL Rangers, allowing two runs in 1.2 IP, striking out two and walking one.

ACL Rangers box score

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It's another jam-packed slate across the show today, and I've found solid value in my MLB player props. I'll highlight Jacob deGrom, Bobby Witt Jr., and Randy Arozarena. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, May 16. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Jacob deGrom	Over 7.5 strikeouts	+113
Bobby Witt Jr.	Over 1.5 hits	+170
Randy Arozarena	Over 1.5 total bases	+140

Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 strikeouts (+113)

Jacob deGrom has been absolutely dominant this season for the Texas Rangers, posting a 2.62 ERA while striking out 57 hitters in 44.2 innings of work.

The right-hander has cashed the Over in Ks in two of his last four starts, hitting double digits in both. He also sat down seven via the strikeout in one of his other outings, just a tad below tonight's total. 

deGrom will face the Houston Astros here, and he's had tons of success against them. Across 59 at-bats, he'd held the Astros to a .153 average while striking out 23 hitters. That includes 4 Ks against Jose Altuve and nine against Christian Walker, two of their top hitters.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, CW33

Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 hits (+170)

Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best players in the sport, and he's definitely proving that right now. The shortstop is batting over .360 over the last week, with six RBI and plenty of hits.

He's also cashed the Over in three of his last five, and Witt Jr. finished with a pair of hits in Friday's loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. 

Two of his last three multi-hit games over these last seven days have been on the road as the Kansas City Royals visit the Cardinals again today.

Witt Jr. is hitting .305 on the road, and he's also batting .328 in day games. While he's 0-for-2 lifetime against Kyle Leahy, it's an incredibly small sample size, and Witt Jr is seeing the ball very well lately. He'll be a key factor in the Royals' offense again. 

• Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Royals.TV, Cardinals.TV

Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at DraftKings)

Randy Arozarena is tearing the cover off the baseball in May, hitting .327 and .301 overall. The Seattle Mariners outfielder has four multi-hit games in his last five appearances, and although the M's didn't score a single run on Friday, he still went 2-for-4 with a pair of base knocks. 

Arozarena was even 4-for-4 earlier this week, and he's hitting .311 against right-handers. The San Diego Padres send Walker Buehler to the mound tonight.

Arozarena is 0-for-8 lifetime against him, but he's hitting pretty much everything right now, and Buehler has an alarming 10.13 ERA on the road, giving up 18 hits in 10.2 frames. 

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FOX

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Another full slate in the majors means lots of opportunities for the ball to leave the yard.

My home run prop breakdown will focus on Kyle Schwarber, Matt McLain, and Aaron Judge. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, May 16. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Kyle Schwarber	+266
Matt McLain	+750
Aaron Judge	+317
💲Today's HR parlay	+43992

Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber (+266)

Kyle Schwarber smacked his MLB-leading 19th and 20th home runs in Friday's victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates as he continues to stay hot.

The slugger has now gone deep in seven of his last eight games, and three times across his previous two contests.

The veteran is tearing the cover off the baseball, and no matter who is facing him, he's doing damage. Pirates SP Bubba Chandler has served up six homers across his last six starts.

Schwarber has also smacked his last four bombs on the road, and the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Bucs again here. 

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSP, SportsNet Pittsburgh

Home run pick: Matt McLain (+750)

Perhaps Matt McLain isn't the most household name in the big leagues, but he's on a tear lately.

The Cincinnati Reds second baseman has cracked home runs in back-to-back games, finishing 2-for-3 on Friday against the Cleveland Guardians with a bomb. 

McLain will face Gavin Williams here, who has allowed eight home runs in just nine starts this season.

McLain has never faced Williams, but he's coming in hot, and Williams has allowed 10 earned runs across his previous two outings, including a pair of long balls. 

• Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Reds.TV, Guardians TV

Home run pick: Aaron Judge (+317)

Every time Aaron Judge steps up to the plate, he's a threat to go yard. The New York Yankees slugger has 16 home runs already, and he went deep twice last season at Citi Field, as the Yanks visit the New York Mets again tonight.

Judge has smacked four homers already in May, and he's collected three hits in his last three games. 

Seven of his bombs have been on the road, and he'll face veteran Huascar Brazoban. Judge is 0-for-3 lifetime, but Brazoban rarely starts games, and he's around the strike zone a lot.

The Mets' bullpen is also unpredictable, and Judge has historically hit well vs. New York, with 14 homers in 32 career games. 

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FOX

Today’s HR parlay

Kyle Schwarber	Bet Now +43992
Matt McLain
Aaron Judge

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Mason Miller was asked to deliver a four-out save to secure a 2-0 win for the San Deigo Padres over the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Friday. He was eventually able to get four outs and seal the win for the Padres, but the Mariners did not make it easy. Miller was able to get out of a bases loaded jam in the eighth inning with a strikeout of Connor Joe on a knee-buckling slider. Miller returned to the mound in the bottom of the ninth inning and walked the leadoff batter, recorded a strikeout and then allowed a single to put runners at first and second base. Miller then recorded back-to-back strikeouts to preserve the 2-0 win.

Randy Vasquez started the game for the Padres and had a stellar six innings without allowing a run. He completed his start after the sixth with no walks allowed and three strikeouts. Vasquez allowed just four hits in the game. Adrian Morejon pitched a scoreless seventh, followed by Jason Adam who was able to get two outs in the eighth, but allowed a hit and a walk, which prompted manager Craig Stammen to turn to Miller for the four-out save.

The San Diego offense did enough to get the win, but it was not much. The top of the order, Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado were 0-for-16 with four strikeouts, three of which were from Merrill against Seattle starter Emerson Hancock. Gavin Sheets, Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Andujar and Ramon Laureano each had two hits in the game. Sheets and Andujar each scored a run, while Andujar and Sung-Mun Song each had an RBI.

The Padres will look to take the second game of the series today at 4:15 p.m.

Padres News:

• San Diego traded two pitchers to the Kansas City Royals for catcher Freddy Fermin and both pitchers could help the Padres today. However, it was evident in the 2025 season they needed an upgrade from Martin Maldonado and Elias Diaz and Fermin was that. This season, he has struggled offensively and Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball says he needs to be better.

• The Padres lineup has rarely been the same under Stammen, but to this point, he has been unable to find a combination that can produce on a consistent basis. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball takes a look at how the order fared after its first stress test of the season.

• Padres pitching prospect Kash Mayfield continues to impress in High-A and recently delivered a five-inning one hit performance to keep his ERA under 2.00 for the season.

• Matt Waldron was expected to be released by many of the Friar Faithful to make room on the roster for Lucas Giolito, but it was announced Friday that he is headed to the 15-day IL, which means he will remain with the organization – for now.

• Ever wonder what your favorite Padres did for work before they made it to the big leagues? Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune found out.

Baseball News:

• Kyle Schwarber became the first player to hit 20 homeruns this season and helped the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Pittsburgh Pirates.

• The Chicago Cubs took the first game of their series against the Chicago White Sox.

• The St. Louis Cardinals walked off the Kansas City Royals in the first game of their series.

• New York Mets pitcher Clay Holmes was hit by a comebacker and fractured his fibula which will cause him to miss significant time this season.

• Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly threw a complete game and helped his team beat the Colorado Rockies.

• The Los Angeles Dodgers placed pitcher Blake Snell on the IL with loose bodies in his elbow.

Meet the Mets

Coming off a sweep of the Tigers, the Mets began the Subway Series last night against the Yankees, and the good times quickly came to an end. They fell behind early, were largely shut down by Cam Schlittler, and ultimately suffered a 5-2 loss.

Choose your recap:Amazin’ Avenue, NY Post, Newsday, Daily News

The loss sucked, but the larger vibe crusher: Clay Holmes suffered a fractured fibula on a comebacker and will miss an extended period of time.

One small bright spot from last night: Juan Soto hitting the 250th home run of his career.

The Subway Series always means we’re going to get a bunch of comparisons about where things stand between the Mets and Yankees, including in off-the-field factors.

Another area of comparison: the Yankees largely running their squad back from last year versus the Mets revamping their roster.

The Athletic contemplated who the superior young New York ace is between Nolan McLean and Cam Schlittler.

While the Subway Series always has a little bit of extra juice to it, these games matter a lot more to the Mets right now given how their season has gone.

Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing are getting their first taste of the Subway Series this weekend.

Luis Torrens is one of many players who is getting extended playing time due to injuries.

The Yankees did not show much interest in bringing back Luke Weaver this past winter, but there are no hard feelings from the former Yankee.

Baseball Prospectus’s Jarrett Seidler provided an evaluation of the good, the bad, and the unfortunate of David Stearns’s Mets track record.

Around the National League East

Mike Yastrzemski played hero against the team his grandfather played for, hitting a walk-off single in extras against the Red Sox to give the Braves a 3-2 win.

The Phillies continued their hot stretch by overcoming a six-run deficit to beat the Pirates 11-9 in extra innings.

Remember when the Mets tried to sign Kyle Schwarber and he ended up re-signing with the Phillies? Well, now he’s hitting a ton of home runs.

Janson Junk got touched up for seven runs in 5 2/3 innings, and the Marlins fell to the Rays 7-2.

The Nationals survived a ninth-inning rally by the Orioles and secured a 3-2 victory over their Beltway rivals.

Around Major League Baseball

After exiting his start earlier this week, Max Fried has been placed on the injured list due to a bone bruise in his left elbow.

Another noteworthy starting pitcher is being shut down, as Blake Snell is returning to the injured list less than a week after being activated from it.

Shohei Ohtani has been slumping by his standards, but Joey Votto explained why he’s not concerned about the superstar.

Jordan Westburg underwent elbow surgery which ensured the Orioles infielder would not be able to suit up at any point in the 2026 season.

Tarik Skubal had surgery two weeks ago and is already playing catch as he looks to return this season.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Vasilis Drimalitis previewed the series against the Mets’ crosstown rivals.

Joe Sokolowski compiled this week’s quotes from and about the Mets.

Linus Lawrence examined the historical leaders amongst Mets and Yankees players in Subway Series play.

Brian Salvatore and Chris McShane discussed the last week of action on the latest episode of Today Your Love, Tomorrow the World Series.

This Date in Mets History

Darryl Strawberry hit the first of his many major league home runs on this date in 1983.

The Mets (18-26) look to bounce back from a costly first game of the Subway Series against the Yankees (28-17) at 7:15 p.m. on FOX. Here's what to know about the game and how to watch...

Mets Notes

• Carlos Mendoza's Swiss Army Knife reliever Huascar Brazobán will serve as an opener. The righty enters the game with a 2.14 ERA, 0.952 WHIP in 21.0 innings over 18 outings (two starts)
• Brett Baty had two hits and an RBI in Friday's loss. He's now 7-for-18 in his last six games with a 1.087 OPS
• Carson Benge has been entering a groove: 14-for-45 (.311) with an .811 OPS in his last 13 games
• Left-hander Carlos Rodón makes his second start of the season for the Yanks. He allowed three runs on two hits and five walks in 4.1 innings, his first go-round

When Daylen Lile gets hot, boy does he get hot. We saw a Lile heater last September when he went on a triple frenzy and won NL Player of the Month. He is doing it again this May, but this time he is showing off more home run power. Lile is now 10 for his last 20 with 4 homers, including what turned out to be the game winning shot last night.

After the game, I asked Lile and Blake Butera about what was going right for him. Butera said that Lile has been catching more balls out in front lately. He also added that Lile is the type of hitter that can really go on a roll once he sees a few balls hit grass. For his part, Lile agreed that his timing has been better lately.

Lile told me that one of the keys to his recent success has been starting his toe tap just a little bit earlier. That has allowed his hitting moves to be more on time. This honestly makes a lot of sense to me. In April, it felt like Lile was consistently just a beat late. That is not the case anymore, and he has been crushing balls to the pull side.

In May, Lile is hitting .319 with a 1.051 OPS. These last couple series, we have seen truly special things from Lile. When he is on his game, Lile is my favorite hitter to watch on the team. His swing is just so pretty and everything he does looks so effortless. He can just spray balls all around the yard, while showing some real pop. In his last 7 games, Lile is 12 for 27, and looks like September Lile again.

The corner outfield duo of James Wood and Lile is one of the best ones in all of baseball. It is also such a young duo, with both players being 23 years old. Nats fans will be able to watch these two for years to come. Hopefully we will be able to watch them for the next decade together. 

Lile is a player that Paul Toboni should seriously consider extending. Before the season, I wrote about how he was a prime extension candidate. He is good enough to be worthy of an extension, but I do not think the price would be astronomical either. Lile is not a Boras client or anything, so it is something that could be on the table.

Extending a player like Lile would give Paul Toboni a lot of good will with the fanbase. I also think it would be a smart baseball move. In my opinion, extending him is not that risky either. It is pretty clear that Lile’s bat plays in the big leagues, and he is getting better defensively as well. His fielding run value has gone from -10 last year to +1 this year.

That added defensive value to go with an above average bat gives Lile a pretty safe floor as a 2.5 win player. I think he has the ceiling to be more as well. We are seeing some real power from him this season. He has 7 homers already. If Lile can be a 20 homer bat, that would be massive for his profile.

Lile has played in 135 career games, which is pretty close to a full season’s worth of action. In those games, Lile is hitting .290 with an .829 OPS. He has 27 doubles, 11 triples and 16 homers to go with that. Daylen Lile is a very good hitter, and we have enough of a sample size to say that.

Lile can be a bit hot and cold, but the hot is really hot. Something about seeing his family in Cincinnati unleashed something in Daylen Lile. He carried the offense against the Reds, hitting three homers. His biggest homer came in the 10th inning the other day. Like last night, that homer ended up being the difference in a one run game.

Seeing Lile and his family go nuts when he hit that homer was amazing to watch. His dad was running down the steps in his section yelling ‘that is my son’. Meanwhile, Lile turned to the dugout and pointed to his throat to signal the game was over. It was a true outpouring of emotion that was so much fun to watch.

Between that emotion, and Lile’s sweet swing, the 23 year old has become a fan favorite in DC. He wears his heart on his sleeve, and it is so easy for fans to see that he cares. You can tell how happy he is when he is rolling and how upset he is when he is struggling. Maybe he can get too emotional at times, but from an outside view, I love seeing someone who cares that much.

Daylen Lile is one of my favorite players on the team, and these kinds of runs are why. The sweet-swinging lefty can carry a lineup and brings so much excitement to the field. One of the reasons the Nats lineup is so good is that they have a few guys who can carry the load. Along with CJ Abrams and James Wood, Daylen Lile is one of those guys.

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The New York Yankees and New York Mets meet for game two of the Subway Series tonight, with Carlos Rodon making just his second start of the season against what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Bronx Bombers' crosstown rivals.

I like the same story from last night to repeat.

Read all about it in my Yankees vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 16.

Who will win Yankees vs Mets tonight: Yankees -1.5 (+125)

I was at least slightly surprised at this price and would play it down to +110. Perhaps there are still lingering concerns about New York Yankees hurler Carlos Rodon after a pretty rough season debut, where he allowed three earned runs in just 4 innings pitched. 

But that was just that: a season debut. 

This matchup against the New York Mets is strong. Batting average is hardly a tell-all stat, but the Mets' .216 against southpaws this season stands out.

Couple that with the Mets still being short-handed, having a below league average hard-hit rate against lefties at 33%, and things start to point in one direction.

COVERS INTEL: Huascar Brazoban's average exit velocity on his pitches ranks in the top 2% of baseball at 83.4 MPH.

Yankees vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

I like Mets arm Huascar Brazoban. He looks to be the opener in what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Mets and should have some success.

His hard-hit rate and barrel rate sit in the top 3% of baseball, which should help him avoid any early crooked numbers from the Yankees. 

I eventually expect the Yankees to open the scoring up against a relatively taxed bullpen; there is still plenty of reason to think this looks a lot like last night rather than some offensive showcase.

I projected this total at 8 and would play it to there. 

Yankees vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Yankees -135 | Mets +110
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Mets +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Yankees vs Mets trend

The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 away games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets.

How to watch Yankees vs Mets and game info

Yankees vs Mets latest injuries

Yankees vs Mets weather

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