
Look, the Yankees are probably cooked in the AL East at this point. They had their opportunities, but the Rays have opened up a 4.5-game AL East lead with 10 games left for the Bombers, and they would need to sweep the four-game set coming up next week—one that features a doubleheader Tuesday—to even have a remote chance since that would give them the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay.
The odds are the odds at this point: a 5.9-percent chance per FanGraphs to win the AL East. Old friend Brandon McCarthy was more likely to get a hit in a given at-bat (.062 career batting average) than the Yankees are to pull this off. Bartolo Colon’s .084 average would be a dream in comparison. Hits did occasionallyhappen for McCarthy! But it ain’t lookin’ pretty for the 2026 Yanks.
So the Rays are almost certainly winning the division and the Yankees and Red Sox will almost certainly duke it out again in a best-of-three Wild Card Series. Great. Fabulous. The rest of the AL is a damn mess:

Yuck! The skinny on the teams still competing for division titles:
- The White Sox were once actually coasting a bit to that AL Central crown and even a first-round bye, but they’ve really begun to run out of steam.
- The Guardians are now just barely in front of Chicago for both of those, but if it ends in a tie, then the White Sox have the tiebreaker, so how comfortable can Cleveland really feel?
- The AL West is even more garbage, with the Rangers’ win and Astros’ loss last night bringing them even at .500 on the dot, in first place. I would say that I cannot believe how much the Mariners beefed this, but, well, they have a history. So does the division itself! All these AL West teams have negative run differentials, by the way.
- Back to the matter at hand, the Astros have the tiebreaker between those two, but with Yordan Alvarez looking hobbled … I don’t know.
Shooting from the hip, I trust Cleveland to eke out their third consecutive division title. They have a roster more accustomed to the chase this time of year and the White Sox have been surviving on some magic beans for much of the season anyway. This is not to imply that the Guardians are actually good, mind you; it was just always going to be a tough sell for the Pale Hose to go from 121 losses in 2024 and 102 last year to not only a winning record this year, but a division title as well. It could still happen, sure! I’d think it was more interesting. But my brain says Cleveland.
As for the AL West? Hooboy. Give me the Rangers, whatever. They’re oh-so-quietly getting healthier and Houston’s dropped seven of ten, including a clunker last night to the crappy Royals. Although the Astros get to end the season with four games against the awful A’s, I think Texas will take advantage of a not-so-tough slate of their own. Corey Seager has an OPS over .900 in his past month of play. He would love nothing more than to pants Houston again.
I know the Wild Card is its own mess that could allow for one of the two division contenders that loses out to sneak into October anyway if Toronto and Baltimore can’t heat up. But let’s focus on those two bye contenders. Which teams win the divisions? Who makes it to the ALCS? Sadly, one of them will, while two of the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox will be stuck at home. Them’s the breaks.
Today on the site, Scott will discuss the RailRiders’ last-ditch effort this week to make the International League playoffs, Matt will run through the Rivalry Roundup, Jonathan will celebrate the 109th birthday of a wartime Yankee who had a film career as well, and John will muse on Giancarlo Stanton’s speed. (Yes, really! It’s a fun piece, I promise.) Later, Peter will break down an excellent strikeout from Max Fried for his Sequence of the Week.
Today’s Matchup:
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