Category: MLB

April offered an early snapshot of who the Royals are – for better and worse. Mostly worse. The Royals ended the month tied for the fourth-worst record in baseball. While they’re not an expensive flaming dumpster fire like the Mets, Phillies, or Red Sox, the start is a huge disappointment for a team that had designs on making a run to the post-season.

How did the Royals get here? Here are the numbers that defined their April.

73

That was the Royals wRC+ with runners in scoring position (RISP), dead last in baseball. Overall, they hit .221/.316/.306 and had a 43.9 percent flyball rate, second-highest out of any team with RISP. Just 12.8 percent of Royals baserunners end up scoring, the sixth-lowest total in baseball. The bulk of the issues have come from the middle of the lineup, with expected run producers Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino among the worst in baseball in clutch situations. Both players had over 100 RBI last year, but Salvy is hitting just .135 with RISP this year, while Vinnie is hitting just .097.

This isn’t a new problem either, the Royals struggled to hit with runners on in the first half of last year. They improved significantly in the second half, but another slow start has fans wondering if the team needs to change their approach or even make a change in the hitting coach department.

13

Royals baserunners have made 13 Outs on the Bases so far this season, fourth-most in baseball. They’ve also been picked off six times, one shy of the league lead. Their success rate on steals is just 70 percent, the sixth-worst in baseball. Overall they’re in the middle of the league in Baserunning Runs, so I won’t go as far as to say they’re a terrible baserunning club. They have some speed, and they like to be aggressive, and when a team is struggling, you can understand trying to make something happen with your legs.

But for a team that struggles to score runs, they can ill-afford to give up baserunners. You can excuse some aggressiveness, but some of the gaffes seem to be the result of poor focus or preparation.

2.6

The Royals moved in the fences at the K this year to make it a more neutral park, and the team has responded by being a solid offensive team at home. They’re hitting .275/.364/.445 in the friendly confines of the K, for a 121 wRC+ that ranks as the fifth-best in baseball, and scoring a healthy 5.4 runs per game.

Road games have been an entirely different matter. The Royals are averaging just 2.6 runs-per-game on road trips, by far the worst in baseball. Salvy is hitting .161 on road trips. Isaac Collins must really miss Kansas City BBQ – he’s 1-for-32 on the road with a 41 percent strikeout rate.

It’s not like the Royals aren’t hitting home runs on the road. Instead, their poor hitting is due to hitting just .202 on the road, the worst in baseball. Maybe John Sherman is coddling them?

5.33

The Royals were the only team in baseball last year that did not lose a game they led going into the ninth inning. That streak ended in the second game of this year when closer Carlos Estévez coughed six runs in the ninth in a loss to the Braves. He was immediately shelved to investigate his velocity drop, and the bullpen has struggled ever since. The once-dominant Lucas Erceg has been inconsistent, and the back of the bullpen has been a bit of a mess. Adding injury to insult, the pitching depth has begun to be deplted with Stephen Kolek and Bailey Falter joining Estévez on the Injured List and Ryan Bergert out for the rest of the season following Tommy John surgery.

Daniel Lynch IV has been a bright spot, and Nick Mears and Matt Strahm have looked good at times, so there is hope the bullpen can find its footing. But the team is 1-5 in one-run games so far, and the offense does not leave the bullpen much room for error.

3.5

Despite stumbling to a poor start, the Royals end the month just 3.5 games back of first place in a mediocre division. No team in the AL Central has a winning record. After a series in Seattle this weekend, the Royals will have a stretch of ten consecutive games against divisional foes, and a hot stretch could get them right back in the mix. Baseball is a marathon and there is still plenty of season left to be played. The Royals have been a very flawed team, but they still have one of the best players in baseball and some talented players that can turn things around. But they’ll need their May numbers to bloom far more than their April showers.

No team ever wants to be in the same sentence with the 1962 Mets, especially one with a top-two payroll that entered the season as one of the top-five favorites to win the World Series. 

But that's where the 2026 Mets find themselves on May 1, following a 10-21 start that has been as unthinkable as it has been ghastly. 

In fact, the Mets are off to an even worse start than their 1962 counterparts, a team that was in its first year of existence.

It has taken a confluence of unfortunate events for them to arrive at this point.

There have been crippling injuries (first to Juan Soto, then to Francisco Lindor), underperformance from nearly every key player on the roster, less than ideal weather for most of the games they've played, and an absurd schedule that has resulted in New York having flown to the West Coast three times already.

But good teams overcome obstacles. And the Mets, to this point, are a bad team.

As they went through a 12-game losing streak before eventually snapping it at home -- only to go on to have a 3-6 homestand against the Twins, Rockies, and Nationals -- most of the noise surrounded manager Carlos Mendoza.

Mendoza, who also presided over the slow collapse that resulted in the 2025 Mets going from the best team in baseball in June to out of the playoffs, is in the last guaranteed year of his contract. When it comes to his future, there are two big things to ponder.

First, it's reasonable to wonder whether Mendoza is putting the Mets in the best position to succeed. Specifically, their constant mental and physical mistakes are alarming, and something (fairly or not) to lay at the feet of the manager. As is the comfort Mark Vientos had running through a stop sign before getting nailed at the plate, and then being defiant about it afterwards. 

There have also been a host of questionable tactical moves, including using handedness as a reason to pinch-hit Austin Slater for the red-hot MJ Melendez in a crucial moment of Thursday's loss.

Second is whether or not a manager change at this juncture would impact anything for the Mets, with most of the players simply not performing. It has worked so far for the Red Sox and Phillies (whether their recent successes are a coincidence, a byproduct, or a bit of both).

A third, smaller thing to consider is what the point of a baseball manager is at all if they aren't going to get blame or credit. To put it in simper terms: if the Mets think Mendoza is helping them, he should stay. If they think he's hindering them, he should not.

But to go any further on the topic of Mendoza would be to ignore the main reason the Mets are in this position. And on Friday afternoon, president of baseball operations David Stearns rendered any discussion about the manager's immediate future moot, noting the team did not intend to move on from him.

Mendoza is managing a roster that was given to him by Stearns and the front office, following an offseason where the core of the team was gutted and replaced.

But this isn't about breaking up the core (which was understandable given how the 2025 season ended) or how those players are faring with their new teams (Pete Alonso has an 87 OPS+, Edwin Diaz is hurt, Brandon Nimmo started hot and is regressing but still has an OPS above .800, and Jeff McNeil has been about average).

For the record, I wrote on Oct. 30 that the Mets should give Alonso a contract for five years and around $125 million. Perhaps that would've been enough to get him to stay before the Orioles swooped in.

In any event, this is about the players Stearns chose to replace that core with, not the fact that he dismantled it.

In fairness, there were many people (myself included) who got on board with what Stearns did after the shock of his initial teardown wore off. Late in the offseason, Stearns pounced while reshaping the Mets into a team most thought would be a serious World Series contender.

But while the ceiling was unmistakably high, the floor was dangerously low.

That things have gone wrong to this degree is shocking, but it was possible to see a lot of it coming.

When you add injury-prone players such as Luis Robert Jr. and Jorge Polanco, the likeliest outcome is that those players will deal with injuries.

In the case of Polanco, his addition would've made more sense if he was viewed as mostly a designated hitter from the jump -- something he's expected to be upon his return from the IL.

After Alonso signed his five-year deal with the Orioles, I argued that the Mets should try to replace him by adding a legitimate power bat or someone who offered a good blend of offense and defense at first base, such as Willson Contreras.

Turning to Polanco at first base has not worked (because of injuries, not defense), and has resulted in lots of playing time there for Mark Vientos, whose regular presence in the lineup is hard to justify (as was noted here in December) given how he performed in 2025.

The offensive struggles of Bo Bichette shouldn't be a ding on Stearns. But, as is the case with every other big player who was brought in this offseason, Bichette had no experience playing in the New York market (or, like Devin Williams, recent trouble in it). The ability to perform in New York is valuable, and not every player has it.

Of all the moves, the most polarizing one was trading Nimmo for Marcus Semien. And while Semien wasn't Nimmo's replacement (that's actually Carson Benge), it's understandable that Semien and Nimmo continue to be linked.

I reject the notion that the Mets "salary-dumped" Nimmo. Instead, I viewed it then and now as a decision to get out of what Stearns felt would be the final years of a contract that is expected to age poorly. And while Nimmo's offense is still above average, his defense is well below average and regressing at a rapid rate.

Again, this is about who the Mets brought in, not who they shipped out. And in the case of Semien, they added a player whose offense was already regressing mainly because they felt his defense would be worth the tradeoff. So far, it hasn't been.

Another big issue is the amount of bounce backs the Mets were relying on, especially in the starting rotation.

On Oct. 2, I wrote that aside from Clay Holmes, all of the Mets' veteran starting pitchers had huge question marks ahead of 2026, adding that the club should be after a front-line starter and a middle of the rotation starter.

They added only Freddy Peralta.

Before the season started, the possible rotation issues remained clear, especially when it came to Kodai Senga's health and Sean Manaea's diminished velocity.

Now, a month and change into the season, Senga pitched his way out of the rotation before landing on the IL, Manaea has been relegated to low-leverage relief innings, and David Peterson (one of the other aforementioned question marks) is also out of the rotation. 

The struggles of some of the Mets' rotation members also led the Mets to carry three and sometimes four long relievers for a decent stretch of games, something that hamstrung the bullpen.

The worst-case scenario playing out for pretty much every big acquisition the Mets made this past offseason and every bounce back candidate they had is mind boggling. But it's a failure Stearns is going to have to own if things don't turn around.

What makes the 2026 season to this point so demoralizing for the fan base is the fact that the thrill of the 2024 run to the NLCS paved the way for a 2025 at Citi Field where the vibes were off the charts, even as the team slowly collapsed. The ballpark was packed, the chanting was spontaneous, and the decibel level of the crowd was high.

Part of that had to do with a connection the fans had to certain players who are now on other teams, but most of it had to do with winning. Winning cures all. It could even cure the 2026 Mets. But if that winning never comes, Stearns' 2025-26 offseason will be a cautionary tale.

We are now in May, and we already looked at pitching highlights of April, so let’s shift the focus to the offense.

Andy Pages got off to a scorching start, won National League player of the week, and during the month hit .321/.366/.518 with a 145 wRC+. He leads the team in hits (36) and RBI (25) while manning center field.

Max Muncy leads the team with nine home runs, while hitting .287/.374/.594 with a 166 wRC+.

A down month for Shohei Ohtani at the plate still saw him hit .273/.406/.491 with six home runs, four stolen bases, and a 144 wRC+.

Dalton Rushing is second on the team with seven home runs despite only 52 plate appearances to date, while hitting .348/.423/.848 with a 244 wRC+.

Today’s question is who was your Dodgers position player of March/April?

The Athletics are out to a better-than-expected start as they sit atop the division with a 17-14 record and a one-and-a-half game lead over the Seattle Mariners. It’s only the first month of the season but April went about as good as you could hope for the A’s as they have the third-best record in baseball so far. They had a rough schedule that saw them on the road lots during the first month but on the bright side that just means more home games the rest of the way. That’ll be helpful down the line when the A’s are tired and don’t want to hit the road.

The calendar has now turned to May though and things will only get harder from here. The target is now on our backs and teams in the division know they can’t arrive to Sacramento and expect to automatically get two or three wins. This group of A’s has a lot more heart and is much more scrappy than the versions we saw over the past two years. That doesn’t mean there aren’t things to consider or watch moving forward. Things like…

1. How long is Jacob Lopez’s leash?

Lopez entered camp this year seemingly with nothing to prove but health after a solid rookie season that saw him post a 4.07 ERA across 21 games (17 starts). He helped to solidify the middle of an Athletics rotation that needed arms and really saved the starting staff with his out-of-nowhere season. Considered a throw-in in the trade that also brought Jeffrey Springs to the A’s, Lopez looked like a steal, and an under control one at that.

But so far this year things have not gone according to plan. Lopez’s spot in the starting rotation was not as secure as fans thought entering spring, with only the veterans Severino, Springs and Civale assured of starting roles to begin the year. Fellow starter Luis Morales was ahead of Lopez on the depth chart but he only made two starts for the big league squad before the team had seen enough and demoted him to Triple-A, replacing him in the rotation with J.T. Ginn, who has been a steady presence at the backend of the rotation since joining.

Severino’s contract makes it certain that he has a long leash. Springs has been the team’s best pitcher in the first month, and Civale is looking like a steal of a bargain for what he’s doing right now. Ginn is holding his own as well, and that means all signs point towards Lopez being the odd man out when the A’s want to get a look at a different young arm.

Lopez hasn’t done a whole lot to inspire confidence that he’s about to turn a corner. The 28-year-old has a rough 5.84 ERA this season and more walks (21) than strikeouts (18). He ended last year on the IL with a flexor strain in his pitching elbow, a worrying injury that made him a slight question mark all offseason long. It’s possible he’s not as healed as he thinks and is making bad adjustments to compensate, and with Mason Barnett looking good in Las Vegas Lopez’s time in the rotation could be short. He’s scheduled to get the ball on Saturday against Cleveland and he desperately needs a quality outing to ensure his spot in the starting staff.

2. What’s the plan when Denzel Clarke is healthy?

The gifted center fielder can certainly play his position as well as anyone in the game and a Gold Glove feels like a given if he gets enough playing time. It feels like the young outfielder is taking away hits and robbing home runs on a nightly basis, and that’s only barely hyperbole. He’s one of the best to play the position for the Athletics in a long, long time.

But the 26-year-old is hitting just .170 with a 24/4 K/BB ratio during the first month of the 2026 season. Those are even worse stats than last year when he was 26% worse than league average. This year? The 25-year-old is 84%(!) worse than league average. That’s… not good. At all. It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise either though as Clarke struggles both during Spring Training and during Team Canada’s time in the World Baseball Classic.

While A’s fans had high hopes that Clarke could at least be serviceable in the batting order, he’s instead become a black hole, an automatic out that has cost the team plenty of times already. Clarke had shown promise in the upper minors and the A’s were ready to push the envelope with him just to get his glove to the big leagues faster. He was never going to be a speedster or a power threat, but the way he looks in the batter’s box makes one think he should not only be in the minors, but perhaps even back in Double-A.

Clarke needs to completely readjust his approach at the plate, but that’s hard to do in the middle of the season. This injury that he suffered shouldn’t prevent him from getting back out onto the field for too much longer, but it might behoove the A’s to let Clarke find himself with his bat down in Triple-A until he figures things out. That’s not what the Athletics were planning for when they essentially handed him the center field job to begin the year, but that’s where we are now. Will he be reinstated and immediately retake his spot in center upon his return?

3. Will the A’s have a closer?

Right-handed Joel Kuhnel has gotten the bulk of save opportunities since his promotion on April 7th. He’s 4-for-4 in that regard while allowing only three earned runs in that time, and his 2.70 ERA is looking mighty nice in the early going.

This has been an out-of-nowhere development for the bullpen. Kuhnel was brought aboard this offseason on a minor league deal after spending the past six seasons bouncing around the league. Before this season he hadn’t had much in the way of chances in the big leagues other than a 53 appearance season way back in 2022, when he posted a 6.36 ERA for the Reds. There wasn’t much thought then at the time other than “nice depth”, but Kuhnel is making the most of his opportunity right now.

But Kuhnel ran into some problems in the second game of the Royals series, allowing a run and giving the Royals a chance to have a late-game comeback. Thankfully Mark Kotsay came out to get his right-hander before things got more out of hand, giving Mark Leiter Jr. the chance to nail down his third save of the season. So what’s going to happen over the next month? Is Kuhnel our guy until he inevitably blows a save, and then it’s back up for grabs from that point on? Is his time as the closer already over? The A’s had another save opportunity yesterday and Kotsay went with Jack Perkins to finish off KC.

The hope is that the journeyman righty can continue to solidify the backend of the A’s bullpen. It worked out for the A’s at times last year but having a closer-by-committee isn’t a long-term way to use the relief unit. Everyone having their set roles and knowing when or where they might be used is beneficial to all those arms that are asked to come into games and lock down the win. It’s a highly stressful job, being a reliever in the big leagues, and asking guys to be ready at a moment’s notice for the entirety of a baseball game is just another added stress. Maybe Kotsay can press all the right buttons for six whole months (and hopefully playoffs), but there’s a reason a team like the Padres shelled out big time to acquire Mason Miller last year. Here’s to hoping we can lock someone into the closer’s role sooner rather than later.

Brian Cashman was ready for a change. A 36-year-old Robin Ventura was showing signs of wear, slashing just .251/.344/.392. On a star-studded Yankees roster, his spot at third base seemed the most plausible position to upgrade. It just so happened that the Reds were in the midst of a fire sale and were looking to move a third baseman of their own, one six years younger and in the middle of a career year.

In separate moves, the Yankees GM spun Ventura off to the Dodgers and swung a deal with Cincinnati to replace him with one Aaron Boone. Cashman could never imagine how integral Boone would be to his team’s fortunes over the next two-plus decades. What he did know was that, to acquire him, he’d need to part with his most promising pitching prospect.

Brandon Allen Falker Claussen
Born: May 1, 1979 (Rapid City, SD)
Yankees Tenure: 2003

Brandon Claussen did not begin his journey in pro ball with much fanfare. The third player ever selected out of Howard College in Big Spring, Texas, he was taken by the Yankees in the now-defunct 34th round of the 1998 MLB Draft. As is the case for any unheralded prospect who makes it to the show, Claussen took a slow and steady path up the food chain. After proving himself at Rookie Ball, Low A, Single-A, and High-A, the left-hander broke out at Double-A in 2001, going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA in 21 starts. Baseball America took notice, ranking Claussen as 37th-best prospect in baseball before the 2002 season.

Claussen made 15 starts at Triple-A that year and appeared to be on the doorstep of the Bronx. That’s when his ascent was stunted by the dreaded Tommy John surgery, ending his ‘02 campaign. “This isn’t career-threatening,” said Mark Newman, the Yankees’ senior vice president for baseball operations, encouragingly of the team’s top pitching prospect. “They do it with great effectiveness now. He’s a strong, hard-working kid, so he’s got as good a chance as anybody.”

The injury may actually have kept Claussen in pinstripes. He was a hot name in July trade talks, especially with the Blue Jays, who reportedly wanted him as the centerpiece of a deal for outfielder Raúl Mondesi. Toronto settled on a less highly-regarded lefty, Scott Wiggins, instead; they were mostly just happy to unload the surly Mondesi’s contract.

Newman’s optimistic angle on Claussen was proven right, as he returned to game action in late April. He bounced back admirably in 2003, making 11 starts at Triple-A to the tune of a 2.75 ERA. “He is quick to return from [Tommy John], but he feels he is very healthy,” Gordon Blakeley, the Yankees’ senior vice president for baseball operations, said. ”His stuff is back where it was before the injury.”

In the midst of this run of excellence, Claussen was called up for a spot start during a rare multi-stadium doubleheader against the Mets in order to keep the rest of the Yankees’ staff on regular rest. It was to be his only start for the team that drafted him. Claussen performed well, pitching around eight hits while allowing two runs (one earned) in 6.1 innings. Playing on the road at Shea Stadium, he even added a base hit and an RBI to cap off a stellar debut. “I was just going to go out and play my game,” he said after the win. “That’s what got me here.” The southpaw impressed his Hall of Fame manager as well. “His poise was unbelievable,” said Joe Torre. “He was very impressive.”

Despite a crowded starting rotation, the Yankees’ top pitching prospect appeared to have a bright future in pinstripes. But there was another major development during that doubleheader against the Mets that would end up cutting his Yankees tenure short. Torre benched Ventura for both games, noting that “his bat’s a little slow now.” After Claussen’s scheduled second start was rained out, he was optioned down to Triple-A as the deadline hot stove began to reach a smolder. The Yankees were looking to augment their bullpen and everyone from the Rangers (who were shopping Ugueth Urbina) to the Mets (Armando Benítez) to the Pirates (Scott Sauerbeck) and the Reds (Scott Williamson) were reportedly interested in Claussen as the centerpiece of their return.

Cashman held strong in his desire to retain the talented southpaw but relented once Boone was on the table. On July 31st, the GM shipped Claussen and fellow lefty Charlie Manning off to Cincinnati for the third baseman. “Brandon Claussen, in our opinion, is the real deal,” Cashman said after the move was finalized. “In terms of getting top talent, you have to rob Peter to pay Paul.” As had happened so many times before, the New York press suspected that the Boss had put his thumb on the scale to force his front office to sacrifice the future for the present. “The deal seems more like a hurried decision to appease George Steinbrenner, the principal owner, than a move that instantly addresses a primary weakness or provides an incredible player,” wrote Jack Curry for The New York Times.

Boone’s impact on the Yankees — first as a hero in the 2003 ALCS, then as the man whose offseason ACL injury opened the door for New York to acquire Alex Rodriguez, and finally as the team’s skipper for eight years and counting — is well-documented. For his part, Claussen finished the ‘03 season with Triple-A Louisville and would spend the next three seasons shuttling between there and Cincinnati.

In 57 starts over those years, he never fulfilled the potential that had enthralled much of the league, going 15-27 with a 5.12 ERA while walking 120 and striking out just 223 in 309.2 innings. In June of 2006, the 27-year-old was placed on the DL with a rotator cuff tear which would require surgery and end his days in a Reds uniform. The Nationals signed him to a one-year deal for the ‘07 season. After seven minor-league starts, he hung up his spikes for good, joining his father-in-law’s family tire business.

As of 2023, he was still in that line of work, running his own wheel repair shop in Lubbock, Texas. Rustin Dodd of The Athleticwrote a fantastic piece on Claussen that year in which he revealed his perspective on his reputation as a “bust.”

I think there’s so much emphasis on looking at the occupation to make you happy,” he said. “But what I’ve learned is a job is a job. If it’s a baseball, if it’s changing tires, it is what it is. It’s who you do it for and who you do it with.”

---

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers begin a six-game road trip as they visit the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

There’s some added intrigue to this series as LA has dropped two straight, while the Cardinals have won four in a row.

My Dodgers vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks expect the defending champs to land the first blow on Friday, May 1.

Who will win Dodgers vs Cardinals today: Dodgers moneyline (-167)

We’re getting a discounted price on the best team in the league because they’re on the road, have dropped two straight, and are facing a club riding a four-game win streak.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals are just 7-8 at home, and Matthew Liberatore’s 5.82 xERA and 6.40 FIP could be trouble against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that crushes left-handed pitching (129 wRC+).

L.A. comes in fully rested after an off day, while St. Louis played Thursday and has a taxed bullpen, with six relievers throwing 29+ pitches over the last three days.

Dodgers vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-102)

Liberatore has long struggled to keep batters from reaching base (1.39 WHIP), and LA’s star-studded lineup should capitalize.

His pitching counterpart, Emmet Sheehan, is dealing with decreased velocity. He’s averaging 94.6 mph on his heater after sitting at 95.4 in each of his first two seasons in the league.

The young hurler has an underwhelming 91 Stuff+, and the Cardinals are good enough against RHP (104 wRC+) to push across a few runs on Friday.

Dodgers vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -167 | Cardinals +154
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) | Cardinals +1.5 (-120)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-102) | Under 8.5 (-118)

Dodgers vs Cardinals trend

Los Angeles is 5-1 SU against left-handed starters this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Dodgers vs Cardinals and game info

Dodgers vs Cardinals latest injuries

Dodgers vs Cardinals weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Christian Scott’s return to the big league level was rough. 

After completing the long journey back following Tommy John surgery, the young right-hander appeared to have found his groove over his second and third outings at the Triple-A level.

Scott gave up seven runs in his regular season opener for Syracuse, but bounced back nicely to allow just two runs while striking out 12 batters in 10.1 innings of work over the next two starts. 

So with the back end of the Mets’ rotation struggling, they decided to give him a shot. 

“The way Scotty's been throwing the ball, we knew it was just going to be a matter of time before he was going to help us -- here we are giving him that opportunity, he's earned it and we're excited,” Carlos Mendoza said.  

Things, however, didn’t quite go as planned. 

The 26-year-old, who was calm and collected in his first call-up back in 2024, was a bit overwhelmed by the moment as he lasted just 1.1 innings before being pulled. 

Scott simply could not find the zone, issuing a career-high five walks and hitting a batter.

“It started to get away [from me],” he told Anthony DiComo on MLB.com. “It was just like first walk, second walk, and that’s not really who I am -- then you start aiming. You try to throw the ball over the plate. It kind of spiraled on me.”

The Mets sent Scott back down to Syracuse one day later, but with Kodai Senga landing on the IL earlier this week, it created another opportunity for him to show he belongs at this level. 

Scott is set to take the ball in Friday night’s series-opener against the Angels. 

“I still trust my stuff and believe in it," he said. "I know if I go out there, I belong at this level. So I’m not too worried about it. Definitely something to learn from, to take with me to the next couple of starts and throughout my career.

“You can’t let the moment get too big like that, especially when things start to go south -- I’m excited for the opportunity to come back and be able to pitch again.”

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Let's finish the week off in a big way after Yordan Alvarez decided to go deep in Game 2 after we bet him to go yard in Game 1 of yesterday's doubleheader.

It's May, which means it's getting nicer, and it's time to pick off those MLB player props.

I want a piece of the White Sox bats vs. German Marquez and the San Diego bullpen, and the Blue Jays can stack runs vs. a starter they've already tagged once this year. 

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 1. 

Best MLB home run props today

Home run pick: Miguel Vargas (+570)

The Chicago White Sox have one of the best hitting matchups on the slate, and Miguel Vargas at +570 offers the best +EV in the lineup.

Vargas has boosted his OPS from .593 to .805 over the last 10 days, powered by four homers. He’s drawing more walks than strikeouts and is seeing the ball well with a .511 OBP.

The real target here is Germán Márquez and a San Diego Padres bullpen that has been hit around lately. Márquez owns some of the worst Blast Contact numbers, his fly balls are leaving the yard at a high rate, and he has one of the worst xFIPs among MLB starters.

Add in a Padres bullpen with the third-worst ERA over the last two weeks, and it sets up well for Chicago bats.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Padres.TV, Chicago Sports Network

Home run pick: Jesus Sanchez (+540)

Let’s take a left-handed bat vs. Simeon Woods Richardson, who is firmly circled as a fade.

He faced the Toronto Blue Jays three starts ago and got shelled for five runs while lasting just 12 outs, with Toronto putting up 10 runs in that game.

Outside of José Quintana, Woods Richardson owns the worst xFIP among today’s starters, and his Blast Contact numbers are also near the bottom. He’s allowed a home run in every start this year, and the Jays benefit from recent familiarity.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen could also give it up, carrying a 5.40 ERA over the last 14 days — the fourth-worst mark in baseball over that stretch.

Jesús Sánchez at this price is the play for me. His swing speed ranks among the best on the team, and his fast-swing rate trails only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I’ll take him over Dalton Varsho, who is 50 points shorter. 

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Twins.TV, SN1

Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+369)

With a poor weather slate, let’s head to Coors Field and take the most probable home-run hitter in that game, per Covers MLB prop projections.

I have Grant Holmes circled as a fade: He gave up a pair of dingers in his last start, and his Blast Contact numbers, HR/FB rate, and xFIP all point to more longballs coming. He’s also pitched at Coors before (2024) and allowed five runs over five innings.

Hunter Goodman has homered in three straight series and launched two vs. the Reds just two games ago. He has four HRs over his last six games and hasn’t even needed Coors to go deep this year, with nine homers already on the road in 2026.

There aren’t many +EV home-run looks today, but Goodman is always worth a play at +350 or better

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, BravesVsn

Today’s HR parlay

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Rick Rizzs Happy Totals: 16
Dan Wilson Tough One Tonights: 16
Run Differential: +7

2025: 18-12, +23
2024: 17-13, +12
2023: 12-16, +1
2022: 11-10, +16

wRC+: 105 (7th)
Rotation ERA-/FIP-: 98/97 (15th)/(12th)
Bullpen ERA-/FIP-: 84/86 (7th)/(6th)
OAA: -15 (30th)
BsR: -0.9 (23rd)

Mariners fWAR leader: Randy Arozarena, 1.1
Mariners rWAR leader: Cole Young, 1.9

Beef Boy Bombs: 7
Josh Naylor SB: 4 for 6
Julio K%: 22.1% (lowest March/April yet)
Julio EV: 88.2 (lowest March/April yet)
J.P. BB%: 18.8%
Luke Raley xwOBA: .385
Dominic Canzone EV: 95.5
Brendan Donovan wOBA-xwOBA: +.084

Matt Brash Changeup RV/100: 7.330 (19th highest among 2,051 pitches)
Andrés Muñoz SwStr%: 19.1%
Gabe Speier Haricuts: 1 (worst of his career)

Logan Gilbert swords: 11 (5th)

Luis Castillo Fastball Velo: 94.8
Luis Castillo Fastball Velo, March/April 2025: 94.8

George Kirby K/BB: 3.09
George Kirby K/BB, 2022-2025: 6.68
George Kirby xERA: 2.85

Emerson Hancock K%-BB%: 19.7%
Emerson Hancock K%-BB%, 2023-2025: 8.0%

Kade Anderson K%-BB%: 38.2%
Ryan Sloan K%-BB%: 14.3%
Lazaro Montes K%: 31.2%
Luke Stevenson wRC+: 175
Colt Emerson MLB G: 0

ABS Challenges: 41 for 70

Your Favorite Stats Not Listed Here: In the comments

Playoff Position: Mariners hold Wild Card 2, sit 1.5 back of Athletics in AL West

ABS: Cole Young, +1.64 WPA
ABS Discourse: Luis Castillo, -0.95 WPA

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The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates begin a three-game set tonight at PNC Park, with the Bucs looking to end a five-game skid.

However, my Reds vs. Pirates predictions are eyeing Cincy to grab a win behind right-hander Brady Singer, who has been much better lately.

Read more for my MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Reds vs Pirates today: Reds moneyline (+116)

The Cincinnati Reds will send Brady Singer to the hill tonight, and he’s held the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup to a .234 average across 77 at-bats. Singer has also allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last three starts. In his last road outing, the righty allowed three earned to the Minnesota Twins across six innings of work.

The Bucs are hitting just .244 against right-handers, and they’ve dropped five games in a row. Pittsburgh was just swept at home by the St. Louis Cardinals. Mitch Keller has given up seven earned runs across his last two outings at PNC Park.

While he’s held the Reds to a .220 average in 118 at-bats, Cincy is playing good baseball right now, and their 10-3 road record is very impressive. The Pirates are just 8-9 at home.

Reds vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 runs (+100)

Both starters have pitched quite well lately, giving their respective teams a chance to win. However, neither has been completely lights out, and both bullpens have been shaky over the last week, giving up numerous runs in the middle and late innings.

Also, the Over has comfortably hit in back-to-back meetings, with both games finishing 8-3. The Bucs were atrocious on the hill against the Cardinals, allowing 10 or more runs in two of the three contests – at home.

The Reds are a very good team on the road, and whether it’s against Keller, the Pittsburgh bullpen, or both, they will add to the Pirates’ misery with a solid offensive performance.

Reds vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Cincinnati +114 | Pittsburgh -126
• Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (+183) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+158)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+101) | Under 8.5 (-116)

Reds vs Pirates trend

The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 away games (+8.65 Units / 66% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Pirates.

How to watch Reds vs Pirates and game info

Reds vs Pirates latest injuries

Reds vs Pirates weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The last time we took a broad look at the “upside down” standings was two weeks ago, when the MLB season was at the 1/8th mark. This weekend marks the 1/5th mark, 20 percent of the way through the season. Out of all 30 teams, here are the bottom six:

The preseason Over/Under on Caesars for those six teams:

PHI 89.5

BOS 87.5

KC 82.5

LAA 70.5

HOU 85.5

NYM 90.5

It’s a good reminder that, as much as it doesn’t seem that way based on recent events, Boston isn’t the only city whose baseball team has greatly disappointed thus far. And possibly the most appalling tidbit in that screenshot is that the Red Sox are just 3.5 games out of the playoffs as we enter the month of May.

Remember the first week of the season when the Astros handily swept the Red Sox in Houston, and it looked like Boston wasn’t even in the same league as the team they were playing? They then went on to lose nine of their next ten, including being swept by the (not terrible) Rockies. The Astros have a worse record than the Red Sox this season. 

We see the Astros again this weekend, and they are 4-12 on the road on the season. Their injured list includes pitchers Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, and Josh Hader. It includes shortstop Jeremy Pena and outfielders Joey Loperfido and Jake Meyers. 

Houston’s pitching is the worst in all of baseball this season, with a team ERA of 6.08, almost a full run worse than the next team (Washington – 5.11). The bullpen ERA of 6.63 is particularly alarming. The Sox will face Mike Burrows (6.25 ERA), Spencer Arrighetti (2.00), and a new addition to the rotation in Kai-Wei Teng (2.75) in this series. As a team, Houston is walking batters at an MLB worst 13.7%. Take a strike this weekend, will ya?

Which of these teams, the Astros or the Red Sox, has been the bigger disappointment thus far? What about throughout the entire league? (The answer is probably the Mets.) Discuss in the comments and enjoy the weekend!

We are closing in on the end of the first full month of the season in the minor leagues, meaning some of the Atlanta Braves prospects have seen their stock change a bit since the end of spring training. This is a good chance to take a look at who has seen a change in their stock in April. You will notice that Didier Fuentes is not on this list, which is because I don’t think he has done anything to change his stock significantly either way since his outstanding spring training.

I did not include undrafted prep infielder Yamvier Carrero, due to playing just eight games so far in Augusta, but he is going to be a player to watch going into May. Dalton McIntyre is also a guy to note, after he struggled last year as well as in five games with Rome this year, but he has done very well in his first 10 games with Augusta and could be a guy to follow in May.

Stock Up

Ethan Bagwell, SP – Ethan Bagwell might be in Augusta for the third straight year, but coming into his second full professional season he had only made 11 starts there combined – 10 coming last year. Bagwell came into the year needing more innings after posting a 2.88 ERA, 0.98 WHP, and a 5.4 K/9 over exactly 50 innings here last year. So far so good, as he has already gone nearly half of last season’s innings total (22 IP) with a 3.27 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Just as importantly he has been missing bats at a much higher rate, seeing last year’s 5.4 K/9 turn into a much nicer looking 8.6 this season – this is the second consecutive year where this has happened in Augusta, as Rayven Antonio made a similar jump last year with this coaching staff. Bagwell, who will only be age-20 all season, is looking like a more complete pitcher this year and a candidate to get bumped up to Rome at some point in the fairly near future.

Logan Braunschweig, OF – A ninth round senior sign out of UAB last year, Braunschweig has been consistently productive for Rome to open this year. He is hitting .300/.432/.417 with a homer and four doubles in 75 plate appearances, with 14 walks to 16 strikeouts. He’s an older player (already age-23) without a lot of power, but he makes great contact and has been regularly hitting the ball hard. He will need to keep proving himself as he moves up the ladder, but he could be playing himself into being a candidate for a future fourth outfielder type of prospect.

Conor Essenburg, OF – Although he has only played in eight games due to an injury that presently has him out, the Braves overslot fifth round pick from last year has looked great in the action he has seen. Essenburg has hit .207/.395/.414 with a double, triple, and homer in 38 plate appearances, to go with nine walks and 17 strikeouts. Beyond just the results, he had been taking good at bats and hitting the ball hard. That’s all you can ask for considering he is a kid out of high school making his professional debut, let alone that this is his first time focusing on just hitting after being a two-way star in high school. While the lack of games played will temper some of the excitement, it is still enough for a slight up arrow after the first month of play.

John Gil, SS – Gil finished last year with Augusta and a short stint in Columbus with a bit of a power spike, but it was a small sample size. We know he looked good there again this spring, and starred in the Spring Breakout Game, but he has continued his success in April. To date he is slashing .291/.388/.468 with three homers and a total of eight extra base hits. Gil is doing his part to prove the power gains that we saw over a short window last year are here to stay, and combined with his speed and on base ability, he is positioning himself to move up our next list of Braves prospects.

Luis Guanipa, OF – While Guanipa is starting out in Augusta for the third consecutive season, that’s mostly because injuries have ruined his last two years. He has been red hot to open the year, slashing .314/.351/.523 with four doubles, a triple, and four homers to go with a perfect 16 for 16 in stolen bases and five walks to 10 strikeouts in 97 plate appearances. Most importantly is the four homers in 21 games, which come after hitting just three homers in 87 combined games over the last two seasons – and matching his total in 46 games played in the DSL back in 2023. If the power spike can continue going forward, Guanipa could find himself moving significantly up the Top 30 list at midseason, as the lack of power in the last two seasons was as much of an issue with him dropping as his lack of health and production.

Eric Hartman, OF – A 20th round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, Hartman spent pretty much all of last year in full season ball – though did miss a little time injured, and was able to slash .248/.344/.374 with five homers and 26 extra base hits in 83 games. He got promoted to High-A to open this year, and has been on a month long tear, slashing .299/.378/.644 with eight homers and 13 extra base hits through 22 games played. Hartman not only has seen a spike in his power, but with a full year of pro coaching under his belt just looks more comfortable at the plate, and the results are showing that. Hartman, who is still just age-19 until mid-June, might end up forcing his way to Double-A before his 20th birthday if he can keep hitting like this.

Jim Jarvis, INF – Following a strong showing in spring training, Jim Jarvis has been a machine for the Gwinnett offense, slashing .324/.444/.477 with five doubles and four homers through 29 games. Add in nearly as many walks (22) as strikeouts (24) and the fact that he’s 14 out of 16 in stolen base attempts, and he’s just been filling up boxscores. This was a guy with a .652 OPS in Double-A with the Tigers before coming over for Rafael Montero at the deadline last year as a bit of an afterthought. Fast forward to not even a year later, and he’s now going to get a shot to earn a shot at the big leagues any time a spot opens considering his production and versatility.

David McCabe, 1B – McCabe seemed to be on the right track after the 2023 season, before Tommy John surgery essentially robbed him of his 2024 season. That meant he needed a bit of a bounce back last year, and he got it in Columbus, slashing .286/.379/.434 with 10 homers in 105 games – though that comes with a bit of an asterisk, as the power still wasn’t what you would like for a first base/DH. Fast forward to this season, and while he is back in Columbus, the power has started to emerge. He is slashing .273/.385/.610 with eight homers through his first 20 games played. It is important to remember that since he is already 26-years-old, a promotion back to Triple-A could be in the cards fairly soon for him. If McCabe can continue to bring the power to go with his quality on base ability, he could still end up as a potential future Braves roster option.

Nick Montgomery, C – An overslot fifth round pick out of high school in 2024, Montgomery was an exciting power hitting catcher that many had high hopes for last year. Unfortunately last year was abysmal, as he spent the entire year in Augusta and slashed .170/.272/.252 with five homers and 42 walks to 119 strikeouts in 356 plate appearances. He has rebounded in a big way so far, slashing .268/.415/.537 with three homers and 11 walks to 13 strikeouts in his first 53 plate appearances. With how poorly last year went, it would have been easy for Montgomery to lose all of his confidence – but he put in the work and seems to be turning things around. He dropped out of the Preseason Top 30 Braves prospects, but if he keeps this up he will comfortably find his name on the midseason list.

Rolddy Munoz, RP – While it might feel like Munoz or his brother Roddery have been in the Braves system forever, he is still just 26-years-old and in the midst of a breakout in Gwinnett. Rolddy has appeared in nine games, going 11.1 innings, and pitching to a 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9. His dominance has also helped to limit base hits, as he has allowed only four all season. Munoz did pitch two innings in a game for the Braves this year as well, though those results were a bit more mixed. Munoz might be establishing himself as one of the first options should the Braves need to add a reliever.

JR Ritchie, SP – The now 22-year-old has finally been promoted to the big leagues and held his own in a pair of starts there. He was dominant in five starts with Gwinnett, posting a 0.99 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 9.2 K/9 with just a 4.9 H/9 across 27.1 innings there. In his starts against the Nats and Tigers he has pitched to a 2.92 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 10 hits, six walks, and 11 strikeouts over 12.1 innings of work. Though he has been a bit prone to the home run, allowing two in his big league debut, and one more in his next outing, Ritchie is already proving himself as a competent big league pitcher as a rookie. The only real question for him is how he will be able to handle left handed hitters, who are slashing .294/.385/.588 with all three homers, while he has held righties to a slash of .000/.083/.000 – though only had 12 plate appearances against them.

Tate Southisene, INF – Last year’s first rounder has been excellent to open his first full professional season. He is presently hitting .271/.442/.494 with three doubles, two triples, four homers, 19 steals, and 20 walks to 27 strikeouts in 113 plate appearances. Southisene is doing everything, and has made great strides from the .219/.242/.297 slash line he put up in 15 games here last year. He is performing like a guy who could earn his way up to Rome at some point this year.

Dixon Williams, OF/INF – When I made this list initially, I wasn’t going to include Williams – just due to the fact that injury has limited him to only nine games so far. However with three hits, including a homer, in the final two days of the month, plus a recent game in center field, Williams earned a spot. He’s slashing .250/.368/.531 with three homers, and with the power and versatility on display, he is making himself someone to watch in this Braves system.

Stock Down:

Nacho Alvarez, INF – Coming into the year Alvarez had a pretty consistent track record. He may have struggled to hit in the big leagues, but he had hit at every stop in his minor league career – until this past month. To date he is hitting just .224/.299/.294, and his only extra base hits are six doubles. This is a guy who has never had an OBP lower than .381 at any stop in his minor league career, who is almost 100 full points below the lowest mark of his career to go with the fact he hasn’t been hitting for power. It might be reaching the point where if the Braves needed to bring someone up, Jim Jarvis may get the call over Nacho.

Landon Beidelschies, SP – The Braves sixth round pick out of Arkansas last year, Beidelschies has had a tougher year adjusting to Low-A competition than you’d expect out of a guy coming from the SEC. He has pitched to a 10.22 ERA, 2.43 WHIP, and 12.4 K/9 in 12.1 innings of work. Add to that the fact his stuff hasn’t been looking like what the Braves were hoping for when they invested in him during last year’s draft, and there is definitely cause for concern. There is still time, considering he is still just 22 and in his first year of professional baseball, but it’s a stock down for the first month.

Lucas Braun, SP – Lucas Braun has made a total of five starts, with four coming in Gwinnett and one with Columbus, totaling 24.2 innings. His 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are a bit inflated by one tough start with Columbus, but they aren’t awful numbers either way. The reason he is finding himself here is the fact he simply isn’t missing enough bats this season, particularly against Triple-A hitters. His K/9 is 6.2, but drops to just 5.9 in his four Gwinnett starts. Although this is a small sample size, it is in line with the 5.2 rate he posted in 19 innings across three starts for the Stripers last year, giving him a combined 5.5 K/9 in 39 Triple-A innings. For a pitcher who is going to need to survive on his pitchability more than his raw stuff, his strikeouts were never going to be huge at the big league level – but that is still a massive drop off from his Double-A 9.4 rate.

Hayden Harris, RP – Last year was a great year for Harris, who posted a 0.52 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with 13.7 K/9 between Double-A and Triple-A. That was enough to get him to the big leagues to make his debut late last season, though it was a short run in Atlanta. He followed that up with five solid outings in spring training this year, though was sent down surprisingly early before the cut down to the Opening Day roster. Things haven’t gone as well for him so far this year, as he is pitching to a 6.75 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9 through his first 12 innings. Relievers are notoriously inconsistent from year to year, but for a guy who is already age-27, Harris needs to get the ship righted quickly considering he is on the 40-man roster.

Cade Kuehler, SP – A second round pick in 2023, Kuehler is coming off of missing last year injured. The results have not been pretty, as he has a 7.45 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, and 7.0 K/9 in 19.1 innings – and that’s after five and a third scoreless innings on the final day of the month. Making things even tougher for him is the fact that his stuff hasn’t been the same stuff we saw out of him in 2024 with Augusta – and that stuff was already below the stuff he had shown in college. It’s too soon to write off a guy in his first year back from surgery, but Kuehler is now firmly outside of the Braves Top 30 prospects based on the results and stuff.

Jhancarlos Lara, RP – This spring had to be disappointing for Lara, who many were projecting to help the Braves at some point this year. That would be because after spending the last few months in Gwinnett last season, he was sent back to Double-A to open his season. The disappointment has continued there, as he is currently pitching to a 13.50 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9 through 6.2 innings. Command really hasn’t been his friend this year, as he has already walked 16 hitters in those 6.2 innings. Lara’s stuff is still elite, but he isn’t presently looking like a guy who could help the Braves this season.

Alex Lodise, INF – The overall results haven’t been ugly for the Braves second round pick from last year, but it’s more about what I’m seeing out of him than his stat line. He’s slashing an acceptable .260/.336/.410 with three home runs, even if it’s only in Augusta – despite 25 games with Rome after signing last year. However the cause for concern is with the swing and miss and the way he will chase pitches out of the zone, leading to 31 strikeouts in 113 plate appearances. If Lodise is chasing and racking up a 27.4% strikeout rate in Low-A, it’s hard to see how he will be able to hit enough against better, and more advanced pitchers as he moves up the ladder. Luckily for hm the Augusta staff is excellent at working with hitters with this issue, so all hope isn’t lost – it’s just that he is presently seeming less likely to reach his ceiling than he was before.

Cody Miller, INF – An underslot third round pick by the Braves last year, Miller posted a .905 OPS in 10 games with Augusta and .779 OPS in 16 games with Rome after signing last year. He was headed back to Rome to open this year, and with his proven hit tool he was seen as a guy who could potentially move quickly. That has not happened, as he is currently slashing just .169/.253/.289 with two homers and four doubles. Miller is striking out a lot (32 in 118 PA) while only walking a limited amount (8), and he isn’t having great results when he puts the ball in play either. There is plenty of speed and there is some pop in the bat, but he is going to need more work with his hit tool than initially anticipated.

Owen Murphy, SP – Expectations were high for Murphy coming into the year, considering it was his second year back from Tommy John surgery. Getting his first taste of the upper minors in Double-A, he has pitched to a 6.10 ERA and 1.79 WHIP, though has 11.8 K/9 in 20.2 innings. His stat line however isn’t the only reason he’s here, as his stuff just hasn’t taken the step forward that many were hoping for this year. Murphy is still going to be 22-years-old all season, but it is concerning to see his stuff play this way at the Double-A level.

Jose Perdomo, SS – Perdomo isn’t on this list because of what he has done on the field, rather for the fact that this is the third straight year where injuries have ruined his season. He was limited to just eight games in the DSL back in 2024, got 54 injury effected games in the FCL last year, with a .544 OPS, and has just two games played for Augusta this year – and isn’t expected to return soon. It’s a disappointing blow for the former high profile international free agent who came into spring training in the best shape of his life. I guess if you are looking for a positive, it would be that he will spend all of next season at just age-20 – but it’s hard to bank on him being healthy with his track record.

The Texas Rangers are 31 games into the 2026 season, and having closed the book on the month of April,* I think it is a worthwhile time to take a look at how the Rangers hitters have fared so far.

* Idiomatically, when we discuss the month of April in regards to the MLB regular season, we also include the few days when games are played in March. Similarly, when we talk about September, we also mean any regular season games in October. Baseball language is weird sometimes.

Big picture-wise, there is once again a fair-sized split in our Fangraphs measures the team’s offense and how Baseball Reference does. Fangraphs has the Rangers, as a team, with a wRC+ of 95, which is tied for 21st in the majors. B-R has the Rangers’ team OPS+ at 105, which is 9th in the majors.* If you average the two out you’d end up at 100, which is, by definition, league average. So you can say that the Rangers’ offense has been above average, average, or below average so far this season, depending on how you want to measure things.

* As a reminder, the split between FG and B-R is mainly due to the difference in park factors they apply to the Shed. B-R’s park factors have the Shed has extremely pitcher-friendly for its 2026 calculations, while FG has the Shed as more neutral.

One thing to also keep in mind is that the Rangers have played a very difficult schedule in the early going. So far in 2026, the Rangers have, per Power Rankings Guru, played the most difficult schedule on MLB.* ESPN has the Rangers playing the third-toughest schedule so far this season. 25 of the team’s 31 games have come against teams with a 110 ERA+ this season or better, with the other six coming against Baltimore (101 ERA+) and the Phillies (91 ERA+).

* The flip side of the difficult early schedule is that they show the Rangers as having the second-easiest schedule the rest of the way.

Below is a chart with each player’s xwOBA, wOBA, and the difference between the two numbers. All data is from Statcast.

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		PA	xwOBA	wOBA	wOBA-xwOBA
1	Osuna, Alejandro	13	.504	.483	-.021
2	Nimmo, Brandon	140	.370	.364	-.006
3	Jung, Josh	113	.368	.403	.035
4	Seager, Corey	130	.335	.315	-.020
5	Pederson, Joc	85	.317	.311	-.006
6	Carter, Evan	110	.316	.297	-.019
7	Smith, Josh	98	.300	.252	-.048
8	Higashioka, Kyle	50	.296	.282	-.014
9	Duran, Ezequiel	65	.289	.348	.059
10	Langford, Wyatt	84	.282	.282	.000
11	Burger, Jake	129	.269	.272	.003
12	Jansen, Danny	74	.240	.284	.044
13	McCutchen, Andrew	45	.226	.250	.024
14	Haggerty, Sam	26	.161	.201	.040

That is…not really surprising, for the most part? Brandon Nimmo and Josh Jung are raking. Jung appears to benefitting from a little bit of good fortune, though his xwOBA is still barely behind Nimmo for second on the team among those with significant playing time.

Corey Seager is not off to a great start, even considering his xwOBA is 20 points higher than his wOBA. His biggest issue right now is that his K rate has spiked — he’s striking out over 25% of the time, compared to an 18.1% career K rate. Evan Carter’s expected numbers are also about 20 points higher than his actual wOBA.

What really jumps out to me here is the dichotomy between Josh Smith and Ezequiel Duran. Smith has gotten off to an awful start to the season, while Duran has been putting up great numbers — Duran’s wOBA is almost 100 points higher than Smith’s so far this season.

In terms of xwOBA, however, Smith has actually out-performed Duran by 11 points. Smith’s wOBA is almost 50 points below his xwOBA, while Duran’s xwOBA trails his wOBA by almost 60 points.

Looking a little closer at their numbers, Duran is striking out more often than Smith (20% to 18.4%), while Smith has a 13.3% walk rate compared to Duran’s 9.2% walk rate. Fangraphs has their line drive rates as being almost identical, and has Smith with a hard hit rate higher than Duran.

Despite that, Duran has a .356 BABIP and .136 ISO, compared to a .242 BABIP and .024 ISO for Smith.

There’s been talk about Duran possibly eating into some of Smith’s playing time at second base, due to Duran’s hot start and Smith’s early struggles. When we drill down on their underlying metrics, though, Duran’s case for more playing time weakens.

The bottom two Rangers in terms of both wOBA and xwOBA are Andrew McCutchen and Sam Haggerty, two guys who are here as short-side platoon bats. This certainly helps explain why the Rangers have had so many issues against lefthanded starting pitchers this year.