Category: MLB

The trade between the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays in November 2022 didn’t make a lot of headlines. Part of that is because people – including those who live in Florida – don’t pay all that much attention to the two Florida teams. More importantly, the trade didn’t involve any headline talent. In exchange for two low-minors players, the Rays sent pitcher JT Chargois to the Marlins along with another minor leaguer in infielder Xavier Edwards.

Chargois has already come and gone, but Edwards is emerging as a star player. In 2025, he spent time at both second base and shortstop, mostly playing well at the former but was lacking at the latter. He didn’t show much power but got on base at a .343 clip and stole 27 bases.

This season, he’s been the team’s full-time second baseman and his defense has solidified. He has also stepped up his offensive game. His on-base percentage of .432 leads the National League, and while he’ll likely never be a huge power threat, his slugging percentage is up almost 100 points from 2025.

You know how we’ve talked about the concept of a “cleanup hitter” changing over the years? Despite not hitting a lot of home runs, Edwards has been batting fourth in the Marlins’ lineup, and it’s worked out well so far.

He’s also shown excellent taste in role models:

This being the Marlins, there’s a strong chance that Edwards gets traded in a couple of seasons as he approaches free agency. But for now, the Marlins can enjoy their young star!

Non-Phillies thought

A few comparisons have been made between this year’s Flyers and the 2022 Phillies: After several years missing the playoffs, the team finally qualified for the postseason thanks to a late surge, and in the first round, took down a favored team with multiple older stars on the roster.

Much like the 2022 Phillies, the Flyers will be underdogs in their next series. However, unlike those Phillies who took on the Atlanta Braves, they don’t have the additional motivation of playing a traditional rival. And there’s also the definite possibility that the team is happy just to have gotten this far. But sometimes, the “playing with house money” team can be the most dangerous.

Saturday is setting up to be a massive sports day in Philadelphia with the Phillies in action along with Sixers (game seven!), and Flyers playoff games. And there’s also the Kentucky Derby. While I’m sure this year’s race won’t compare to the 2004 edition, it’s still fun to watch.

I will have to set up multiple TVs to catch all the action, although my last multiple TV night was on October 9th, and that went…poorly.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: The Phillies’ first game at Truist Park was June 5, 2017. In the first inning of that game, a home run was hit by Tommy Joseph. (Nobody answered that one correctly)

This week’s question: In the first series the Phillies played at LoanDepot Park (nee Marlins Park) in June 2012, they lost all three games. Name two of the three losing pitchers from that series.

Additional thought about the series

Under Rob Thomson: Phillies play poorly for eight of nine innings in a game and lose.

Under Don Mattingly: Phillies play poorly for seven of nine innings in a game, but one of those good innings is the ninth and they win.

After how poorly most of the season has gone, we needed a day like Thursday where the team pulled off two ninth inning comebacks. (With Chase Shugart earning both wins, exactly like they drew it up.)

However, LoanDepot Park has often been a place where good Phillies vibes go to die. The Phillies’ worst years at the Marlins’ stadium seem to happen when they’re expected to be good and the Marlins are expected to be bad. The Marlins weren’t expected to be playoff contenders this season, but they are in second place (albeit with a losing record) and are coming off a series win over the Dodgers.

Perhaps the three game lead in the standings will cause the script to flip, and the Phillies will be the underdog team that hurts the Marlins’ chances?

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Philadelphia has turned a corner of late, winning three straight games and four of the last five.

With Zack Wheeler set to take the mound, my Phillies vs. Marlins predictions expect the road team to extend its winning streak in Miami.

Let’s take a closer look at my MLB picks for May 1.

Who will win Phillies vs Marlins today: Phillies moneyline (-120)

Zack Wheeler showed little rust in his season debut, holding a top-tier Atlanta Braves offense to two runs over five innings while striking out six. The velocity was high, indicating he’s already close to 100%.

If Wheeler is on his game, he doesn’t need much support to grind out wins – and he should get it against the Miami Marlins.

Eury Perez has allowed at least three runs in four of six starts and ranks Bottom-5 on the slate at limiting fly balls and hard contact. That’s cause for concern against a powerful Philadelphia Phillies offense that sits sixth in hard hit rate.

COVERS INTEL: Eury Perez has allowed an alarming 14.9% barrel rate, putting him in the seventh percentile league-wide.

Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under pick: Over 8.0 (+100)

The Phillies are heating up at the dish. They have scored 36 runs over their past seven, good for an average of 5.14 per game.

Their hard hit numbers against righties are strong and Perez is giving up a lot of quality contact. This is a good setup for them to build on strong recent production.

Miami should struggle early against Wheeler, but they’re unlikely to run him into the ground in just his second start. With a taxed Phillies bullpen behind him after Thursday’s double-header, there’s a clear path to late offense.

Phillies vs Marlins opening odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia (-130) | Miami (+110)
• Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+135) | Miami +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-105) | Under 8.0 (-1.5)

Phillies vs Marlins trend

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.

How to watch Phillies vs Marlins and game info

Phillies vs Marlins latest injuries

Phillies vs Marlins weather

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David Stearns has removed any cloud that might have been hanging over Mets manager Carlos Mendoza amid the team's 10-21 start.

"We know our record is not what we want, and we know we are capable of more," Stearns told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. "We don’t view this as a manager problem, and we don’t intend to make a change."

Regarding Stearns, DiComo notes that owner Seve Cohen has given "at least some assurances" that his job as president of baseball operations is safe.

Mendoza is in the third and final guaranteed year of his contract, with the Mets holding a team option for the 2027 season.

Stearns' above comments on Mendoza echo ones he gave on April 17, when he expressed confidence in the third-year manager while disagreeing with the notion that there should be more scrutiny on Mendoza.

"No. I think Mendy is doing a really good job," Stearns said. "I think he's putting our players in position to succeed. He's enormously consistent. So, no, I don't agree with that."

Asked how Mendoza was putting players in position to succeed, Stearns elaborated.

"I think both in terms of how he's managing in the clubhouse, how he's getting guys to the right pockets -- whether it's matchups out of the bullpen, the right matchups in games," Stearns explained. "I think he's doing a good job."

Mendoza has a 182-173 career record at the helm of the Mets.

In his first season in 2024, Mendoza oversaw a team that finished 89-73 and made a run to Game 6 of the NLCS.

In 2025, with the Mets' pitching staff largely ineffective in the second half of the season, New York tumbled all the way out of a playoff spot while finishing 83-79.

Stearns hired Mendoza in November of 2023, shortly after his stint leading the front office began. 

Daniel Palencia news:

Friday notes…

• STREAKING: The Cubs have won eight straight home games, the entire last seven-game homestand and the last game of the previous one. The last time a Cubs team won eight straight at home was Sept. 12-30, 2017. That streak was snapped when they lost to the Reds, 3-1, on the final day of the season, and all but one of their starters were lifted after one or two plate appearances. The last time any Cubs team won nine straight home games was Aug. 18-Sept. 2, 2017. The franchise record is 18, set during the team’s overall team record 21-game winning streak in 1935 (the first 18 of those 21 straight wins). (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• SCORING FIRST: The Cubs are 7-0 when they have scored first at home. They are 12-5 in all games in which they scored first. In 14 of the 17 games, they did so in the first three innings: four in the first, seven in the second and three in the third. Last year, the Cubs were 33-8 at home when they scored first and 17-23 when they did not. They won 15 straight when they scored first at home from May 5 through July 19. They had two nine-game winning streaks when they scored first on the road. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• GETTING ON BASE: The Cubs are first among all 30 teams in on-base percentage, at .353. The Diamondbacks are 27th, at .308. The only teams lower are the Phillies, .302; Giants, .293; and Mets, .289. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• HIT PREVENTION: The Cubs are tied for fifth in fewest hits allowed per nine innings, at 7.6. The Diamondbacks are tied with two teams for 25th at 9.1. The only teams worse are the Nationals, 9.2; Orioles, 9.3; and Phillies, 10.1. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: Andre Dawson and Hector Villanueva homered off future Cubs broadcaster Jim Deshaies as part of a five-run first inning and the Cubs went on to defeat the Astros 11-8 at Wrigley Field. It happened 35 years ago today, Wednesday, May 1, 1991.

Cubs lineup:

Diamondbacks lineup:

Colin Rea, RHP vs. Zac Gallen, RHP

Colin Rea was going along just fine when the Dodgers torched him pretty good over the weekend.

That out of the way, Rea has been solid this year (and was last year, too). I don’t think one bad start erases all the good things Rea has done for the Cubs rotation.

Rea started vs. Arizona April 18, 2025 at Wrigley Field and allowed one run in 4.2 innings with five strikeouts, probably on a pitch limit (threw 69 nice pitches). That was the crazy game where the D-backs scored 10 runs in the eighth but the Cubs came back and won anyway.

Ketel Marte is 4-for-6 with two homers off Rea, so it might be good to hold him down today.

Remember when Bob Nightengale said Zac Gallen was going to sign with the Cubs? According to this Awful Announcing article, here’s what happened in the Gallen household after Nightengale made that social media post:

“So I was sitting there at breakfast with my dad,” Gallen told MLBFits. “A family friend of ours came over, and he’s like, ‘Oh nice, you’re going to Chicago,’ and I was like, ‘I don’t know what you’re talking about.’ So there was a hectic kind of 20 minutes or so there. I was getting calls from family, and then from my now-wife, was like ‘We’re going to Chicago?’ I’m like, ‘No, I would let you know if we’re going to Chicago.’”

Gallen and his wife actually got married the weekend after that news broke (and un-broke), which only amplifies how wild that report must have seemed in the moment.

So that must have been fun!

Anyway, as you obviously know, Gallen re-upped with the D-backs and has had a pretty good year so far: 3.14 ERA, 1.360 WHIP in six starts. His K rate is down a bit, but otherwise he’s showing that last year was an aberration in an otherwise fine career.

The last time he faced the Cubs, April 19, 2025 at Wrigley Field, they hit him pretty hard (seven hits, six runs in six innings), including home runs by Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Diamondbacks site AZ Snakepit. If you do go there to interact with D-backs fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Jordan Walker’s first month has contained some of the highest highs any player is ever going to reach, and some familiar lows. How do we rationalize what we’ve seen so far?

We’re about one month into the baseball season for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals. In the grand sweep of the season, this is but the opening line. It’s too early to draw any conclusions from what we’ve seen thus far. But, if you’re like me and watching essentially every inning, it feels like a lot of baseball has been played. Which brings me to a thought I’ve been wrestling with for the last few games. What’s the rational way to react to Jordan Walker’s start?

Let’s go to caveat land first. He should play the whole season no matter what – this is the year to learn what he’s really got in the tank. It’s still early. We’ve seen two versions of Walker and that will likely normalize as the year goes on. He’s the same age as JJ Wetherholt and has had an odd career track up to this point. (Now, hold these residents of caveat land in your head all the way through – please and thank you!)

Through roughly 30 games, we’ve seen two versions of Jordan Walker. Let’s start with the Thanos version of him first. (Yes, I’m using Thanos positively here as a kind of destroyer-of-worlds-template in favor of the Cardinals.) From the hallowed stretch of April 4th through April 16th, Jordan Walker turned the difficulty level down to Rookie and treated the league like MLB the Show. Let’s just laugh together at some highlights: .370/.408/.848, a .478 ISO, a 246 wRC+, and 7 homers. Try to export those numbers to another country and Walker would be charged with war crimes. 

He ran career lows in groundball rates, sprayed the ball all over the field, and ran a miniscule 6.5% weak contact rate. The eye test confirmed this. Every ball off his bat was a scud missile buried somewhere in the side of the wall or doing architectural damage to the stadium beyond the fence. Every single problem we wanted him to solve was solved to a Sherlock Holmes degree in this microdose of games. 

It went beyond the numbers, though. Walker seemed in control at the plate. He was jumping on hittable pitches early and was patient on balls out of the zone. He didn’t seem to be lunging like Richard Simmons at every slider low and away. The defense was quite improved (still is!) and he was even stealing bases like Victor Scott II. (Or, not like Victor Scott II – yikes.) In a nutshell, it was everything that everyone who roots for the Cardinals had ever wanted for Jordan Walker. He was a national topic – Eno Sarris was buying in!

Ok, now take a deep breath. Remember, there have been two Jordan Walkers so far. From April 17th through this writing (April 29th), Jordan Walker has looked like Old Jordan Walker. As Ecclesiastes says, there is a time for dancing and a time for mourning. Let us mourn together: .216/.333/.243 (the OBP isn’t bad there!), an .027 ISO, a 78 wRC+, and one extra base hit. 

It’s worse than that (do you still have you citizens from caveat land on board?), he struck out 37.8% of the time and doubled his groundball rate from his thermonuclear streak. He’s been lunging at low and away sliders like I lunge at toasted ravioli (just trust me!), and working seemingly every single count to 0-2 immediately. It’s been ugly the last couple of weeks – and it’s been ugly in a recognizable way.

So, let’s step back. What do we make of this first month? It seems to be a matter of perspective. If you told Cardinal fans at the beginning of the year that Walker would have a 151 wRC+ after the first month, they’d probably ask you how someone got ahold of Yadier Molina’s blood for ritual purposes. That’s an unqualified success – no doubt. 

However, it’s more complicated than that because of the nature of his performance. He went from Aaron Judge lookalike to Old Jordan Walker all in the same month. This is where opinions are going to vary. If it scares you to see the old habits rear their heads, then you’ve got all the ammunition you need to worry. If you’re thrilled that we’ve seen Peak Jordan Walker, then you’re probably feeling good that we’ve seen what’s possible from a 23 year old. 

In short, Jordan Walker is a walking Rorschach test. His ink blot can be read in either direction you’d like to read it. Obviously, as he plays more this season, that ink blot will begin to take a more definite shape that we can use to adjust our expectations.

I can’t and won’t tell you how to fan, but I will share my perspective. I’m worried. We have an enormous amount of data that tells us that Jordan Walker may never figure it out. He turned into an MVP for roughly two weeks and then reverted back. I’m not rooting against him. I’m just concerned that his body of work shows that he’s back to the approach and habits that landed him in an early career tailspin in the first place. I’d like nothing more than for Jordan Walker to develop into the cleanup hitter of the future for the Cardinals. I’m not ruling it out by any stretch. His underlying physical gifts are such that he could flip the switch at any second by refining his approach again. That’s what I want. I just don’t know if the Cardinals inkblot is going to deliver.

Let me know how you’re feeling in the comments. And, as always, thanks for reading!

Who’s the Pack playing?

Opponent: Miami

Mascot: Embraced Fear | School Location: Dextertown, FL | Conference: ACC

2026 Record: 32-12 (12-9, T-4th) | 2026 RPI Rank: 29

2025 Record: 35-27 (15-14, 9th) | 2025 RPI Rank: 34

2024 Record: 27-30 (11-19, 6th Coastal) | 2024 RPI Rank: 81

When? Where? How do I watch?

Location: Doak Field at Dail Park (Raleigh, NC)

Game Time(s): Fri, May 1 @ 3:00pm | Fri, May 1 @ 6:00pm(ish) | Sat, May 2 @ 7:30pm

TV: Friday Game 1 (ACCNX) | Friday Game 2 (ACCNX) | Saturday (ESPNU)

Live Stats: Stat Broadcast (Friday Game 1 | Friday Game 2 | Saturday)

Tell me about this team

NOTE: FRIDAY DOUBLEHEADER

Former Miami pitcher and long-time Hurricanes assistant J.D. Arteaga, now in his third year as the head man of the program, finally seems to be figuring things out. It was a bit of a controversial move firing Gino DiMare, himself another former Hurricanes players and long-time assistant under legendary coach Jim Morris, and handing the reigns to the pitching coach under him. Things certainly didn’t start well, with Miami going from a 42-21 (18-12) record with an RPI of 15 in DiMare’s last season to a 27-30 (11-19) record with an RPI of 81 in Arteaga’s first season. Heck, DiMare won 18+ ACC games in each of his four full seasons at the helm. Arteaga’s going to need a 6-3 finish to the season to reach that mark for the first time.

So, yeah, things haven’t been that great to start with. Last year’s Miami squad got hot in April, but limped to the finish line in May and then was one-and-done in the ACC Tournament. They did make the Hattiesburg Regional and got hot there, eventually making the Louisville Super Regional where they bowed out in a one-run loss in Game 3.

The 2026 Hurricanes started the year on a 10-game winning streak before getting swept at home in a weather-shortened two-game series with Florida. The Canes then lost both of their first two ACC series, vs Boston College and at Duke, putting some heat back on Arteaga. Since the series loss to the Blue Devils, Miami has been on a heater, going 18-6 overall (10-5 in ACC play) and winning all six weekend series.

A combination of a potent offense (.303/.407/.509, 95 2B, 63 HR, 12.7 BB%, 17.9 K%, 52-66 SB) and a pitching staff (32-12, 7 SV, 4.32 ERA, 387.1 IP, 10.0 BB%, 25.9 K%) that features a strong weekend rotation and deep bullpen has allowed for this to be a formidable Hurricanes team. Some late-season injuries are taking their toll, though. Stud JR 3B Daniel Cuvet (.305/.437/.649, 14 2B, 12 HR, 17.4 BB%, 15.8 K%, 3-4 SB), a projected top three round pick in this year’s draft, is out for the remainder of the year with a stress fracture. Friday night starter SR LHP Rob Evans is also dealing with an ankle injury that may cost him his start this weekend, although he should be back for next weekend.

The team did get rSR LF Max Galvin back recently and is expected to return two bullpen arms JR RHP Nick Robert and JR LHP Frank Menendez to regular duty for the closing stretch. That’s going to make this team even stronger in postseason play.

Pitching Matchups

Friday (Game 1): RHP Heath Andrews (JR) vs RHP Lazaro Collera (SO)

Friday (Game 2): LHP Cooper Consiglio (JR) vs RHP A.J. Ciscar (SO)

Saturday: TBD vs LHP RobEvans (SR)

Key Players:

Offense

RF Derek Williams (rSR) – .386/.474/.752, 14 2B, 14 HR, 11.9 BB%, 17.6 K%, 4-8 SB. Former transfer from Wichita State who spent his first two collegiate seasons in the JUCO ranks. Not entirely sure how he’s still eligible considering he played 43+ games in each of his four previous season, but okay. Big time pop from his righty bat, he has 78 career HR across his 244 career collegiate games.

C AlexSosa (JR) – .323/.447/.646, 14 2B, 11 HR, 16.2 BB%, 16.8 K%, 1-2 SB. Needs no introduction for NC State fans. The Florida native and former Wolfpack backstop has put together a really nice season in his draft-eligible turn. Thrown out 7-of-37 (18.9%) of attempted base stealers this year while allowing just two passed balls, both improvements over his numbers last year with the Pack (9.3% and 6, respectively).

2B Jake Ogden (SR) – .311/.389/.486, 11 2B, 5 HR, 9.9 BB%, 13.2 K%, 9-11 SB. Former UNC-Greensboro transfer who started his college ball at the D2 level with Barry University in Miami Shores. Oddly enough, the only game of his college career that he didn’t start was at Barry. Riding a five-game hitting streak during which he’s 10-for-21. Has multiple hits in six of his last nine games.

1B Brylan West (rSR) – .322/.429/.486, 9 2B, 5 HR, 11.9 BB%, 12.4 K%, 4-4 SB. Huge 6’4, 269 lbs right-hander from Tampa who spent two years in the JUCO ranks before spending the last two at Florida International where he was a 2nd Team All-CUSA pick in 2024 and a 1st Team All-CUSA pick in 2025. Hasn’t tapped into that power as much with Miami as he did with FIU (23 HR over two years), but the potential is clearly there.

LF Max Galvin (rSR) – .224/.274/.254, 2 2B, 0 HR, 6.8 BB%, 11.0 K%, 0-0 SB. Local kid who spent two years at Miami-Dade College in JUCO ball before heading to Oklahoma State in 2024 and redshirting with the Cowboys. Started 59 games last year (.310/.369/.491, 18 2B, 8 HR, 7.5 BB%, 10.6K%, 9-10 SB) but missed a month and a half earlier this year due to injury. Returned in early April and it’s been an uphill battle to get back into form, but the lefty can play.

Pitching

RHP Lazaro Collera (SO) – 3-2, 3.58 ERA, 50.1 IP, 8.0 BB%, 23.6 K%. Big 6’5, 225 pound second-year arm who only saw 17.0 innings last year, but has made a huge jump after pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer. Has touched 97 with his heater before, but the slider is his real weapon. The improvement in control has allowed him to succeed as a starter. Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last five starts, working into or through the 6th inning in four of those starts.

RHP A.J. Ciscar (SO) – 4-3, 3.79 ERA, 59.1 IP, 2.4 BB%, 24.0 K%. A 2025 Freshman All-American, Ciscar has excelled as the Sunday man for Miami this year. Has started all 10 of his appearances this year after making 10 starts last year. Sandwiched around a miserable start at Stanford (2.2 IP, 6 ER) two weeks ago has been a combined 14.2 IP of 1-run ball with 1 BB and 12 K against Wake and Cal. Mid-90’s heat from his 6’4 frame with a two-seam fastball that’s surprisingly tough on lefties. Also has a sweeper and a change, and controls all three pitches exceptionally well.

LHP RobEvans (SR) – 8-2, 3.05 ERA, 59.0 IP, 8.3 BB%, 28.8 K%. Has been the Friday night starter all year for Miami, but is dealing with an ankle injury so will be pushed back to the final game of the series in hopes of giving him some extra rest. There’s a good chance he doesn’t pitch this weekend. The former Georgia State transfer from Harlem, NY, sits in the low-to-mid-90’s and has a pair of breaking balls. Only pitched 15.1 innings in relief for Miami this year, but is having a standout final campaign. Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last four starts.

RHP Lyndon Glidewell (SR) – 3-0, 2 SV, 3.38 ERA, 26.2 IP, 8.0 BB%, 35.7 K%. Former JUCO player who transferred in this year from Austin Peay. Took over the closer role in early April with Ryan Bilka struggling a bit in that capacity. Was a 2nd Team All-ASUN selection last year as a starter (8-0, 3.36 ERA, 77.2 IP, 10.1 BB%, 18.9 K%). Clearly a good move by the Miami staff to move him into a relief role as it’s allowing his stuff to play up. Over his last 8 appearances: 9.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 17 K, 1 HBP.

RHP Ryan Bilka (SR) – 2-0, 4 SV, 4.50 ERA, 26.0 IP, 15.4 BB%, 26.5 K%. Richmond transfer who spent his first two collegiate seasons at Wagner. Was a menace last year for the Spiders (6-2, 3 SV, 2.18 ERA, 62.0 IP, 5.3 BB%, 23.5 K%). Can throw up to five pitches, including a mid-90’s fastball. Started the season as the team’s closer, but struggled through early March. Control has continued to be an issue that pops up, but 10 of his last 13 outings have been scoreless.

RHP T.J. Coats (JR) – 5-2, 3.75 ERA, 36.0 IP, 8.1 BB%, 19.3 K%. Nebraska transfer who started his college ball in the JUCO ranks. After only tossing 11.1 innings for the Cornhuskers last year, he had a breakout summer in the Cape Cod League (32.2 IP, 11 BB, 40 K) and used that to hit the portal and wind up with the Hurricanes. Solid build at 6’2, 212 lbs with a low-90’s fastball, a solid slider, and a curve and change mixed in.

LHP Jake Dorn (rJR) – 5-0, 3.00 ERA, 24.0 IP, 12.6 BB%, 28.2 K%. Former JUCO transfer who is just now finding his footing after mixed results at the JUCO level, missing all of 2024 with TJS, and only tossing 13.2 IP last year for the Hurricanes. The 6’4, 235 lbs southpaw has a three-pitch mix including an upper 80’s fastball that runs in on lefties and a big loopy 12-6 curve.

Quick! Fun Facts!

Ryan Bilka pitched against NC State back in the opening series of the 2023 season, appearing in the second game (1.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP). He also faced off against the Wolfpack last season when he was with Richmond, but did not appear in that game.

Jake Ogden played against NC State as a member of UNCG in 2024, going 1-for-5 with a 2B, 2 R, BB, and K in a 18-3 Spartans win.

NC State is just 1-5 in the last six meetings with Miami since the start of the 2023 season.

Alex Sosa leads Miami in WAR with 2.70, while Daniel Cuvet is second at 2.42. Rett Johnson leads NC State with 2.67 WAR, while Ty Head is second at 2.57 and Luke Nixon is a close third at 2.54.

The Key To A Series Win For State

Without Ryan Marohn for a third straight week and facing a Friday doubleheader, the key is simple: get length from starters Heath Andrews and Cooper Consiglio. The Wolfpack can ill-afford for Friday to turn into a pair of bullpen games.

Prediction

The Wolfpack are 21-7 at home this year and coming off a big run-rule win in a midweek home tilt with ECU. This is a tough matchup with a loaded Miami team that is 9-4 on the road this year. Pitching typically wins these types of series, and the Hurricanes have more of that right now.

Outcome: Miami takes two of three.

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Start your weekend right with some MLB best bets, based on trading prices available at Polymarket (which allows fans coast-to-coast to participate in baseball action).\

Our expert MLB picks for May 1 have found value in the Jays and Cubbies winning, along with a pitcher's duel taking place in Tampa.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: TOR ML	+100
Neil Parker: CHC ML	-127
Joe Osborne: SF/TB u7.5	+104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

It might be scary backing a Patrick Corbin start, but the Toronto Blue Jays have already handled Simeon Woods Richardson this year, tagging him for five runs in just 12 outs. The familiarity factor leans toward the hitters in this spot.

Toronto’s lineup is getting healthier and can make up for Corbin, who has actually looked solid, allowing just four runs over his last three starts. If this game is decided late, the edge goes to the visitors — and the league’s best bullpen over the last seven days.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen is being mispriced this afternoon. His 14.2 K% and 24.0% called+swinging strike percentage are both career-low marks, and he’s also served up a career-high 45.8 hard-hit rate. It’s also reflected in his 4.95 xERA — checking in well above his 3.14 ERA.

With the Chicago Cubs on a 12-3 heater, while pacing the majors in wOBA and striking out at the fourth-lowest clip in baseball, I’m anticipating Gallen to run into trouble navigating a deep and potent lineup.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Giants/Rays Under 7.5

Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket

Runs should be tough to come by tonight in Tampa with a lefty vs. lefty pitching matchup featuring two lineups that have struggled against southpaws. The San Francisco Giants have been especially bad, ranking 27th in OPS against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks.

Tampa Bay Rays lefty Shane McClanahan has been sharp at home, while Robbie Ray is back in top form with two earned runs or fewer allowed in five of his six starts.

More ammo for an Under wager: The Giants' bullpen leads MLB in ERA over the last 14 days.

More MLB best bets for today

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Somerset Patriots 9, Portland Sea Dogs 6 (BOX)

Franklin Arias went four games without hitting a home run and I was starting to get concerned. That changed in dramatic fashion in the top of the ninth on Thursday night, when Arias tied the Sea Dogs game at 6-6 on a two run bomb to center. 

My favorite rating on any FanGraphs page at this moment is Arias’ Game Power:

The 20 is for “present” Game Power, with 45 as “future”. This was Arias’ eighth home run of the season, in 20 games. I’d suggest that Fangraphs update that Present rating ASAP. 

Unfortunately, the Patriots (NYY) walked it off in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run homer by Coby Morales off of reliever Cooper Adams. Starter Patrick Halligan struck out six batters, allowing two runs in 2 ⅔ innings. 

On the hitting side, Arias and Nate Baez had two hits, and Brooks Brannon knocked in three runs. 

Worcester Red Sox 4, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 1) – BOX

The Woo Sox got solid pitching from starting pitcher Alec Gamboa, who struck out six over 5 ⅔ innings in game one on Thursday, beating the Red Wings (WAS). Jack Anderson, who may be needed again in Boston once his 15-day minors clock is up, gained his first save to close down the seven-inning affair. 

Matt Thaiss homered for Worcester, and Kristian Campbell was 1-for-2 with a walk, a run, and an RBI. 

Worcester Red Sox 7, Rochester Red Wings 3 (Game 2) – BOX

The Woo Sox completed the sweep in game two, thanks to home runs from Vinny Capra and Braiden Ward, accounting for the first two runs of the ballgame off of Red Wings starter Riley “The Great” Cornelio. Anthony Seigler knocked in two runs and was on base all four times in this one. 

It was more of a bullpen game for Worcester, with Devin Sweet, Angel Bastardo, and Wyatt Olds splitting the work. Bastardo picked up his second win, now throwing five shutout innings on the season. 

Hub City Spartanburgers 6, Greenville Drive 2 (BOX)

First round pick a year ago Kyson Witherspoon continued to struggle in his start on Thursday against Hub City (TEX). He walked five batters and hit another in 2 ⅔ innings of work, allowing four runs as his ERA jumped to 7.13 on the season. He struck out six batters but threw just 32 strikes on 66 pitches. 

The Drive had five hits on the day, with two of those coming from Justin Gonzales who was on base all five times he stepped to the plate, walking once, and being hit by two pitches. Yoeilin Cespedes continued his heater with two more hits, as well. 

Salem RidgeYaks 10, Wilson Warbirds 5 (BOX)

Salem trailed the Warbirds (MIL) 5 to 1 after six innings before the game flipped in a hurry. Two home runs from Starlyn Nunez, another from Ty Hodge, and a fourth from Luke Heyman accounted for nine unanswered runs to close the game. Nunez, Heyman, and Hodge all had three RBI on the day. Here’s the second of two bombs from Nunez:

All three runs that starter Madinson Frias allowed were unearned, and Ethan Walker went 5 ⅓ strong innings in relief to get the win, striking out nine. 

For much of his professional career, Cade Cavalli was somewhat of a myth to Nationals fans. A 2020 1st round pick with loads of upside, blazing his way through the minor leagues with electrifying stuff. He got a taste of the bigs in 2022, but an elbow injury during 2023 Spring Training kept him out of the spotlight and the field for the following 2+ seasons.

He fought his way back to Washington at the back end of 2025, posting decent statistics, but looking far from the prospect he once was. Many labeled him as a potential breakout candidate in 2026, but he struggled with putting hitters away in his first few outings.

However, at long last, Nats fans’ once-promised frontline starter may be knocking on the door.

Definite conclusions can’t be fully drawn from a 2-game sample, but Cavalli seems to have unlocked something. In appearances against the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, the righty threw a combined 11.0 innings, allowed just 4 total runs, and struck out 10 hitters in back-to-back starts, something that has only been done by 4 other arms in Nationals’ history.

The stuff is ticking up, and Cavalli has simply looked in complete control of the game for much of the time. His strikeout rate has climbed from 18% in 2025 to to 27% in 2026, his HardHit% has dropped from 41% to 36%, and his Expected Batting Average Against has been lowered from .259 to .246.

Digging even deeper, his 3.82 ERA, which already registers as a decent mark, may also be discrediting just how effective Cavalli has become. To say that he’s gotten unlucky so far would be an understatement. His FIP is all the way down to a 2.82, an entire run below his ERA, and his BABIP has climbed to over .400, a clear sign that positive regression is on the horizon.

Most of the issues that plagued the beginning of his 2026 campaign stemmed from not being able to miss bats and put away hitters. In the same fashion as just about every other one of his metrics, that has changed for the better, including during his latest start against the Mets, where he generated 18 whiffs, finishing 2nd among MLB starting pitchers in that regard on April 29th.

His 5-pitch mix has found a blend of timing, movement, and command that has given opposing lineups major struggles recently. If the underlying data doesn’t do it for you, just turn on his next start, because he certainly passes the eye test. Putting it bluntly, Cavalli looks like the future of the Nationals’ rotation.

With CJ Abrams and James Wood playing like the true backbone of their offense for the foreseeable future, it’s about time that the pitching staff produced a star of their own. For all intents and purposes, Nats fans, Cade Cavalli is your guy, and it’s time to embrace him.

The New York Mets (10-21) travel across the continent to face the Los Angeles Angels (12-20) for the start of (another) western swing. At this very moment, the Mets are having one of the three worst starts to a season in franchise history, being even more inept at baseball than the famously inept 1962 Mets, the owners (until very recently) of the worst record in baseball history. The big difference between 1962 and 2026, vibes wise, is that the ‘62 Mets weren’t expected to do much as an expansion club, and had a ‘lovable losers’ vibe that people accepted and embraced. The 2026 Mets are not that; this team was supposed to be a playoff contender. This fanbase was told not to worry as cornerstone players were sent elsewhere or spurned by lack of a offer. This team was supposed to be the first true vision of a still new front office.

Well, that’s not what we got. What we have is a collection of players that look less like a baseball team and more like a quartet of toddlers standing on each other’s shoulders trying to pass off as a baseball player. Whatever can be going wrong seems to be.

Before I go any father, I want to acknowledge that things feel pretty terrible right now, and so that makes even the slightest issue seem magnified to epic proportions. For instance, the same crowd that was laughing at the signing of Carl Edwards Jr. in the offseason was lamenting his being designated for assignment yesterday. If the key to this season’s success was Carl Edwards Jr., then we’ve all been guilty of atrocious miscalculations.

But there are real issues at play here for this team. While Nolan McLean and Clay Holmes have been quite good and Freddy Peralta more or less pitching to his career norms, the other two spots in the rotation have been atrocious. With Kodai Senga on the Injured List and David Peterson having a truly dreadful start in his first start in weeks, the Mets need to figure out the band end of their rotation. Help is on the way in the form of Christian Scott, who will start the first game of the series, but his first outing of the season saw him walk five batters in one and a third innings. Scott is better than that, and has been quite good in Triple-A this season, so perhaps he will stabilize one of those open spots.

But then there’s the bullpen. Aside from Brooks Raely, Huascar Brazobán, and Tobias Myers, everyone has been a mess. Sean Manaea and Craig Kimbrel are shells of their former selves, and both Luke Weaver and Devin Williams have looked shaky at best since coming over from the Yankees. Austin Warren has been very good in limited time, and hopefully he can stick with the club this time.

But the biggest issue remains the offense. It’s nice that MJ Melendez had a big day on Thursday, but that can’t be the strategy going forward. Players like Bo Bichette and Francisco Alvarez need to be consistently driving the ball, and that simply hasn’t happened yet. Brett Baty and/or Mark Vientos need to start producing on either side of the ball. Without Lindor, without Robert, and without Polanco, the lineup is thin already, but when everyone not named Soto is struggling, it is decimated.

The only good news for the Mets this weekend is that the Angels are a bad ball club. Losers of six straight and ten of their last 11, the Angels continue to be an even more extreme ‘little brother’ team to the Dodgers than the Mets are to the Yankees or White Sox to the Cubs. The Mets are also missing José Soriano, their best pitcher, and so that is a minor blessing as well.

For the Mets fans, this is also an opportunity to watch Mike Trout, undeniably one of the best players of his generation, and one whose talents have been wasted on a less than spotlighted team.

Friday, May 1: Christian Scott vs. Walbert Ureña, 9:38pm on PIX11

Scott (2026): 1.1 IP, 1 K, 5 BB, 0 HR, 6.75 ERA, 15.13 FIP, 169 ERA-

Scott’s first 2026 Mets start was ugly: he faced ten batters and walked five of them. But there are reasons to see that as an isolated incident, the primary one being that it was his first start after Tommy John surgery on a big league mound. But in Triple-A, his strikeouts are there and his walk rate is nice and low. Without the first start nerves, far away from home, perhaps Scott will be able to settle in more tonight.

Ureña (2026): 11.1 IP, 13 K, 10 BB, 1 HR, 4.76 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 111 ERA-

It is rare that you see a pitcher give up six unearned runs, let alone in one inning, but that is exactly what Ureña did against the Astros in late March. Since then, he’s started two games and given up six earned runs total across the two, including a three and two-thirds innings start against the Royals where he walked five and gave up six hits.

Saturday, May 2: Nolan McLean vs Reid Detmers, 9:38pm on SNY

McLean (2026): 35.1 IP, 45 K, 10 BB,  2 HR, 2.55 ERA, 2.26 FIP, 64 ERA-

Things are progressing nicely for McLean, even if the results have been a little more of a mixed bag than the Mets would like. Part of that is lack of run support; aside from the one start they won, the Mets have been outscored 21-9, and only nine of those runs were earned against McLean. But he’s doing the things he’s supposed to be doing as a young starter, and he hasn’t shown any regression or real issues just yet.

Detmers (2026): 33.2 IP, 36 K, 9 BB, 3 HR, 4.26 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 100 ERA-

Detmers had two great starts against the Mariners on April 3 where he tossed six and two-thirds scoreless innings and against Yankees on April 14 where he went seven innings, striking out nine and giving up just one run. Aside from that, it’s been a struggle for Detmers, who has given up at least three earned runs in every other start.

Sunday, May 3: Clay Holmes vs Jack Kochanowicz, 4:07pm on SNY

Holmes (2026): 36.0 IP, 25 K, 11 BB,  3 HR, 1.75 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 44 ERA-

Raise your hand if you thought Clay Holmes would be the most effective Mets’ starter and bWAR leader through April? If any of you have your hands up, you’re liars. But Holmes has been excellent so far this season, even if he’s never quite the most exciting or dominant pitcher to watch work.

Kochanowicz (2026): 35.0 IP, 24 K,  18 BB, 1 HR, 3.09 ERA, 3.76 FIP,  72 ERA-

The second best starter on the club, Jack Kochanowicz is walking too many folks but otherwise looking good for the Halos. After a rough first start, he’s only allowed more than two earned runs once, and has been consistently working into the sixth and seventh innings.

Another week, another Baseball America staff draft to cover. Why not? I love the draft, probably because it was the only chance for hope for much of the Al Avila years; even now, with the Detroit Tigers in first place, I can’t shake the habit. So here we are yet again.

A ‘Staff Draft’ is like a mock draft, but without any real information connecting specific players to specific teams, the analysts and writers at Baseball America just guess based on what organizations have tended to do in recent drafts, and who they like that fits the bill. For the Tigers, that typically means investing early draft picks in high schoolers up the middle, underscouted college pitchers, and maybe an additional underslot college option to balance the books. Look at 2023, when the Tigers selected Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, Max Anderson, and Jaden Hamm with their first four picks. Or 2024, when they went Bryce Rainer, Owen Hall, Ethan Schiefelbein, and… well, you get the picture. If you’re an athletic up the middle defender or a raw pitcher to build up, look for Detroit to call your name.

With this most recent staff draft, BA covered Detroit’s first 3 picks: 22, 61, and 69. Their first and second picks are standard, while that third one comes in Competitive Balance Round B for being a smaller market team. For the whole draft, they have $9,165,100 in bonus pool money to spend and can exceed that total by 5% without any penalties besides a small financial tax. In addition, the Tigers will not receive any extra picks for Qualifying Offer compensation, so their bonus pool is relatively low. With those out of the way, let’s move onto the real selections.

22. Coleman Borthwick, HS RHP

Firstly, the staff mentioned Coleman Borthwick, an oversized pitcher out of South Walton High School in Florida’s panhandle. Borthwick is a bit of a throwback pick as a massive, hard-throwing righty listed at 6’5, 255 lbs; he certainly would fit right into a typical Dave Dombrowski draft. Beyond the measurables, Borthwick is pretty much what you’d expect. He throws up to 98 on his fastball, has a sharp slider he can usually locate on the corner, and generally bullies high schoolers in the zone. Right now, he’s repeating his delivery enough to track as a starter, but he would need to develop a changeup to really pop. Good thing the Tigers are typically good at finding some sort of changeup; speculatively, I’d assume the 6’5 guy would have hands big enough to create a solid splitter.

Borthwick has drawn some buzz for his offensive skills, too – he’s a big, strong power hitting corner guy – but his pitching seems to have taken off in 2026. Reports indicate teams are much more attracted to his arm than his bat. As with any 18 year old pick, there’s a lot of work to be done, but the goal would be to get him away from his Auburn commitment and onto a pro mound full time. The big frame, high velocity, and solid slider make for a strong foundation to build up from.

Wes Mendes, FSU LHP

Next we have Wes Mendes, a lefty from Florida State University. Mendes is a third year pitcher, having previously transferred from Ole Miss’ bullpen to FSU’s rotation for 2025 and 2026. Mendes is a lefty who sits around 91 with an uphill fastball that plays up in the zone and a plus changeup in the high 70s. His initial attempt at starting went very poorly as he built up to a full time workload, but this year he has posted a 2.43 ERA in a very hitter-friendly college league.

The continued positive development – from bullpen to bad starter to good starter – in only three years is a big arrow up for a lot of organizations. Seeing the aptitude for improvement early can often be a sign of further improvements or adaptations later down the road. FSU is in the ACC too, so this isn’t a product of jumping to a small school with poor competition, either; he’s facing real college hitters as the Friday-night starter for a D1 program. Whatever team grabs Mendes will be banking on three simple things: getting the fastball from the low to mid 90s, developing a breaking ball, and getting him ready for 150+ innings.

Luke Williams, HS SS/CF

Finally we have my favorite of the three names mentioned, Luke Williams. Williams is a hyper-athletic HS SS/CF from Pennsylvania. This sounds highly Tiger-ish. BA specifically mentions his 70-grade speed and 70-grade throwing arm as indicators he’ll be fine at either CF or SS, but doesn’t say much about his right handed stick. He’s listed at a fairly typical 6’0, 180 lbs, and likely has a bit of room to add some strength but nothing crazy. He reportedly has plus bat speed but missed time in 2025 with a serious ankle injury, so scouts have had a fairly limited timeframe to check out the hit tool. That’s especially notable because Pennsylvania isn’t known as a baseball hotspot and there’s no indication he played for any of the international teams that put someone like McGonigle on the map.

All that being said, when you get into the 60s of any draft, this is the type of bat I think you should be targeting. You’ve got a plus or double plus defender up the middle with strong hands, a quick bat, and room to grow into power. Unless he shows terrible plate discipline or no feel for the barrel when you see him in person, this feels like a risk worth taking. The Tigers are doing pretty well developing this type of player these days. Nobody mentions that in their April scouting reports, so for now I’m inclined to guess he’s about average for the level there and doesn’t stand out in either direction. That’s enough to start from.

If you’re reading this, you know as well as I do it’s April. Mock drafts the day before the draft get information wrong all the time, so don’t take anything written this early as gospel. Players will pop or bust, teams will do in-person negotiations, money will come into play, all that. For now, it’s better to view these names as representative of the options the team might be considering. Or might not. It’s April, after all.

Past summaries:

• So far, so good through mid-April

How did the Braves do recently?

The Braves went 10-3 since we last checked in. No team did better; the Yankees and Cubs matched this pace from April 16 through the end of the month. That’s a 125-win pace over a full season, which is absurd… but that’s what the Braves managed. The division lead increased from three games over the Marlins to 6.5 games (still over the Marlins).

Though the Braves were very successful, they didn’t exactly blow everyone out of the water on paper. Over this 13-game stretch, they finished tenth in MLB in position player value, including ninth in hitting value and inputs, eighth in defensive value, and 19th in pitching value. The defense remained a key aspect of their run prevention, as their pitching line in this span was 86/106/102 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). Basically, they didn’t pitch that well, and they actually got a bit stung by HR/FB these two-ish weeks, but the run prevention ended up being on point anyway.

Going game-by-game and looking at pre-game odds, the Braves “should have” gone something like 7-6. They obviously overperformed that by a ton. Their most incredible win was the Matt Olson walkoff-aided victory in a JR Ritchie-Tarik Skubal matchup. They only had three losses, but they were actually pre-game favored in two of them, including the 11-4 walloping they suffered in Washington that snapped a six-game winning streak. Still, they’ve largely been streaking positively — the team now has four different win streaks of three or more games, while it’s had just one period where it lost consecutive games at all (a three-game losing streak at one point).

Over this two-week span, the Braves raised their estimated win total to 93, up by about three wins. Their playoff odds gained ten percentage points and now sit around 95 percent. Only the Cubs, Reds, Rockies, White Sox, and Yankees added more of the former, while only the Yankees, Cubs, Reds, and Athletics added more of the latter.

How are the Braves doing for the season?

Well, they now have MLB’s best record at 22-10. They’re up two in the win column over the next-closest contender, and one in the loss column. They now project to have baseball’s second-best record, have the second-highest odds of winning their division, and the third-highest odds of making the playoffs and winning the championship. Things are going well, basically. It hasn’t been a particularly tough schedule yet, but the Braves are still 22-10 when a game-by-game expectation would be 18-14, so they’re still doing better than probably anyone expected. They have the second-best expected record by both run differential and BaseRuns — and unlike earlier in the month, they’re no longer substantially underplaying both, now just -1 relative to run differential and even with their expected BaseRuns record.

They’re third in position player value and 12th in pitching value; their WAR-wins total through 32 games is 19, so that’s at least one sense in which they’re outplaying their production. But as you’ve borne witness to, this isn’t a lucky team rocketing to the top of the standings, but a team that’s producing and getting largely-commensurate rewards, with a bit of luck thrown in to compensate for the past two years of misfortune and/or misery. In terms of overall rankings:

• The Braves are fourth in both wRC+ and xwOBA, and eighth in defensive value. The defense slipped a bit, the hitting didn’t.
• They’re 12th in pitching value, but second in ERA- (barely, at that), while being 15th in xFIP-. As noted above, the pitching was notably worse later in April, and, at least right now, this is a team that is going to rely on its position players to both hit and catch the ball.

How are the hitters doing?

I’m continuing the irresponsibility of the grayshaded, per-600 PA column. Hitter-wise, the second half of April was driven by Michael Harris II’s insane, beyond-video-game-numbers line, along with legitimately good performance from Ozzie Albies (along with overperforming said performance by an insane amount), along with Olson and Drake Baldwin. No one else really helped all that much. The struggles of Austin Riley and Mike Yastrzemski were actively detrimental to the cause.

For the season as a whole, it’s that same quartet driving the proverbial bus, though Mauricio Dubon and Dominic Smith continue to maintain good lines largely based on what they did earlier in April. Matt Olson has played like an MVP from basically MVP-on; in addition to his actual production, he was fourth in MLB in WPA in April’s second half, and is fourth again for the month as a whole. The timing of Olson’s contributions might overshadow Drake Baldwin’s similar production for some, but not for us, right? That said, Olson is pretty clearly the Braves’ MVP for April — he had a huge game nearly half the time, and if the season ended today, he might very well be the NL MVP, as his 1.7 fWAR is the league’s highest (and fourth in MLB, with two other guys just fractions ahead of him and behind Yordan Alvarez’ 2.2).

The following chart is just for the second half of April. It was a month of justice in this regard. Harris’ insane two weeks made this chart stupid. More broadly — do you find this chart useful? I won’t include it if it doesn’t help relative to the table above.

Here’s the same chart, but for the month as a whole.

The only thing I’ll add to this is that Riley struggling is kinda brutal in and of itself, but when you combine that with his uncanny ability to draw the WPA vortex upon himself, well… not much has gone wrong for the Braves, but that definitely has. Mauricio Dubon is also having a WPA vortex-y month, where he’s come up what feels like an inordinate amount in key spots. He was getting lucky with bloops and such earlier, but his WPA has taken a beating over the last few weeks as they haven’t fallen in those same big spots.

How are the pitchers doing?

The pitching situation continues to be fluid, so sample sizes wreak havoc on the ability to say much of use here every two weeks.

Bryce Elder’s topline looks great because he’s not getting killed by HR/FB. That said, this was not a great two weeks of actual pitching for him, and unless you think he’s suddenly immune to getting blasted into a higher HR/FB again, you should prepare for his numbers to take a tumble. Chris Sale had a much more Sale-like two weeks compared to early April. Grant Holmes did not have a fun time in late April. He probably needs to improve fairly quickly in May before the Braves go in a different direction in the rotation and he fixes the team’s “we have no one we like to pitch longer-stint middle relief” issue that Didier Fuentes has been conscripted into managing for some reason.

I’m loathe to talk about even smaller-sample performances among relievers, but for April as a whole…

Reynaldo Lopez was removed from the rotation after not pitching well. We’ll see what he does with a different role. Jose Suarez is an enigma with a great FIP-, an okay xFIP-, and a horrid WPA. This will probably work itself out, by which I mean, “he will be removed from the roster.” I can see why the Braves were so interested in keeping him around, but I am guessing their patience will run out before he manages to get the consistency to not blow up the game with a spate of walks each time out, even if he’s striking out the side while doing so. Dylan Lee is f’n awesome and is barely outside the top five in reliever fWAR right now. I don’t know if this is in the cards, but with how much the Braves like to spend on relievers, maybe they could give him a modest extension rather than just dumping the same resources into someone else in a later offseason. Tyler Kinley continues to pitch in a weird way that warrants its own post, but it hasn’t hurt the team so far. He’s another thing that could have gone terribly and really ruined this excellent month for the team, but things have worked out for the best so far. Robert Suarez has not been an expensive reliever contract that’s blown up in their faces — he’s basically done what they were hoping for when giving him all that moola. And then there’s Aaron Bummer, who is really delivering on “May you get what you wish for” this year. He’s being used in high leverage! Unfortunately, he’s a complete mess in the early going. Maybe he’s just aged out of effectiveness. Maybe it’s related to him missing time with arm issues last year. Either way, it’s a cruel twist of fate.

See you in two weeks! Again, if you have stuff you do want to see in these, or stuff you don’t, let me know and I’ll think about it.

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The surging Seattle Mariners will be looking to keep it rolling tonight as they welcome the Kansas City Royals to T-Mobile Park.

Seattle has won two straight, and my Royals vs. Mariners predictions are eyeing Bryan Woo to set the tone for another victory.

Read more for my MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Royals vs Mariners today: Mariners moneyline (-147)

The Seattle Mariners just took two out of three from the Minnesota Twins, winning back-to-back games to close out the series. While Bryan Woo is coming off a difficult start where he allowed seven earned runs, the righty has been dominant at home.

Across two outings in Seattle, Woo sports a 2.77 ERA, holding opponents to a .178 average. He owns a 3.86 ERA overall, and he’s coming up against a Kansas City Royals team that has been underwhelming offensively, averaging just 4.1 runs per game.

On the other side, Cole Ragans allowed seven earned runs in his last road start, and the lefty owns a 5.00 ERA overall. His road ERA balloons to 8.40, despite being dominant at home with an ERA under one. He’s held the M’s to a .194 average, but it’s a very small sample size.

COVERS INTEL: Cole Ragans has a 6.06 FIP so far, the worst of his big league career.

Royals vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7 runs (-110)

While both of these teams rank 20th or worse in runs scored, Seattle, in particular, is producing more lately, scoring 12 runs across this two-game winning streak. Two of the last three meetings have also cashed the Over, and the M’s score more at home, averaging 4.67 runs.

The matchup clearly plays in their favor, too. Ragans has struggled immensely to find any consistency on the road, and Seattle is in a rhythm. Although Woo is wonderful at home, he has been a bit shaky lately, so I could see KC tagging him for a couple of runs as well.

Also, the Royals’ bullpen owns an atrocious 5.33 ERA. Seattle will win, and they will do the majority of the scoring.

Royals vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Kansas City +124 | Seattle -137
• Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-167) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+114) | Under 7.5 (-137)

Royals vs Mariners trend

The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+11.90 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Mariners.

How to watch Royals vs Mariners and game info

Royals vs Mariners latest injuries

Royals vs Mariners weather

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Although the New York Yankees couldn’t sweep the Houston Astros on the road, they remain one of the hottest teams in baseball.

With the Baltimore Orioles entering tonight's matchup facing plenty of pitching questions, we don’t expect that to change. 

Read all about it in my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Orioles vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-175)

This is a tough spot for the Baltimore Orioles, sending Triple-A call-up Cade Povich to face one of the hottest lineups in baseball with a depleted bullpen behind him.

The New York Yankees present Povich with the same problem they’ve posed to so many starters this season: a chase-reliant arm facing the team with the lowest chase rate in baseball.

That will force Povich to rely on competitive pitches like the heater, and that introduces a whole host of issues as New York enters this game ranking first in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate against the fastball over the last month.

I’ve projected the Yankees at -200, so while we are laying some juice, it’s worth it considering the Baltimore pitching situation.

COVERS INTEL: Cade Povich's chase percentage grades in the 89th percentile, but the Yankees swing out of the zone just 25% of the time.

Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

Will Warren continues to overachieve, sporting an expected ERA that’s a full run higher than his actual one, with his expected FIP telling the same story.

While I expect the Yankees to prevail, Warren will run into issues with his bottom-30th percentile hard-hit rate, and the Orioles should do their part to help plate a couple of runs in the Bronx tonight.

Orioles vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Orioles +150 | Yankees -175
• Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Orioles vs Yankees trend

New York has cashed the moneyline in 34 of its last 50 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.

How to watch Orioles vs Yankees and game info

Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries

Orioles vs Yankees weather

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