There has been plenty of discussion surrounding Kevin Cash’s lineup decisions. Cash addressed those concerns recently, noting that the team expects to experiment with different lineups throughout the season. Much of the focus has centered on Chandler Simpson’s place in the order and Junior Caminero’s lack of traditional lineup protection.
It’s not a matter of these decisions being “right” or “wrong,” but there’s a clear pattern and underlying rationale behind them.
Leading-off
One of the main criticisms of the Rays lineups has been Simpson’s spot in the order. Some want to see him leveraging his speed at the top of the lineup. That would mean bumping Yandy Diaz down to 2nd or 3rd in the lineup. He’s the best on-base hitter on the roster, so they could potentially be leaving runs off the board by replacing him with Simpson. However, Simpson is off to a hot start and is reaching base over 43% of the time. Unfortunately for him, Yandy is getting on base nearly 49% of the time. Yandy also has a more established track record of getting on base at a high clip (.373 career OBP vs .334 for Simpson so far in the majors). I think Simpson will have some opportunities at some point this season to hit leadoff, but the best version of the Rays lineup right now has Yandy leading off. The case against Simpson leading off isn’t just about OBP – it’s about optimizing both his strengths and the hitters around him.
There’s also the question of how much is Simpson’s position near the bottom of the order helping his production. There’s typically less pressure to produce when you’re near the bottom of the lineup. Simpson has batted 8th three times already this season, and his average spot in the lineup is 6.3. It’s also fair to wonder how his current role is supporting his production. Hitters lower in the lineup often operate with less pressure and clearer situational expectations. While that’s difficult to quantify, it’s at least possible that Simpson’s current usage is helping him settle in at the major league level. Simpson is already making worse swing decisions that last season, so I’m not sure the added pressure of the leadoff position would benefit his production.
There’s also evidence that having an aggressive base stealer on first doesn’t necessarily help the hitter. In some cases, it can do the opposite; hitters may alter their approach to accommodate the steal attempt rather than focusing on their own at-bat. In this case, it might be better to have someone less central than the Yandy-Aranda-Caminero group hitting behind Simpson so the Rays best hitters can focus on being their best. Simpson batting 8th like he has most of the season might be the most effective way to get him in scoring position with the top of the lineup coming around; he would have an opportunity to steal a base with the number 9 hitter at the plate or potentially advance a base with a productive out from that hitter.
Cleaning-up
So far, Caminero has primarily been batting 4th in the lineup with mainly Cedric Mullins (x4), Jake Fraley (x2), or Ben Williamson (x2) hitting immediately after him. Some fans might want Caminero higher in the lineup so he can get more plate appearances. This does make sense as he would statistically have more PAs over a full season hitting 3rd rather than 4th, but there are a few reasons to bat him 4th and it doesn’t really matter who is “protecting” him in the lineup.
First, separating Díaz and Caminero (while still keeping both near the top) creates matchup pressure later in games. An opposing team could bring in a tough RHP to face Yandy, but would likely have to let them face Aranda plus another LHB like Fraley or Mullins. This forces an opposing manager between having to neutralize Yandy/Caminero or the LHB between them – but not both.
Another reason to hit Caminero 4th is because he’ll see more PAs with runners on base than if he was batting 3rd. Batting Caminero fourth may cost him some total plate appearances over a full season, but it increases the likelihood that those plate appearances come with runners on base — and for a hitter with his power profile, that’s often the more valuable trade-off.
Lastly, the idea of lineup protection is more mental than scientific.
There isn’t any research that supports the idea that protection is something that should be prioritized when building a lineup. The effects of having a good hitter protecting the batter in front of him are likely marginal at best, and Caminero can hit just about anything out if he squares it up, so he’s not really someone who needs to see more pitches in the zone to be productive. The main thing for him will be to continue to improve his swing decisions as his zone-minus-out-of-zone swing rate is the same as last season despite him chasing less. Having someone like Aranda hitting behind Caminero won’t help him be more productive, but swinging more at pitches down the middle will. Caminero swung at pitches in the heart of the plate just over 75% of the time in 2025, but that number is down under 64% this season. He has done well to limit his chasing so far, but swinging at pitches he can do damage on will help raise his game even more.
Lineup construction isn’t just about putting the “best hitters” at the top; it’s about sequencing skills, managing matchups, and creating the most difficult set of decisions for the opposing staff. Early on, the Rays appear to be prioritizing exactly that.
