Category: MLB

Last week, I wrote about Cam Schlittler’s outside case to be AL MVP. Many outlets have since followed my lead, which tickles the old ego, but really the fallout from that story has been more personal. I always try to be someone that is open to changing his mind, open to new information leading to a new belief or value. Thinking about the season Cam’s had, and his potential to receive MVP, has me embracing a new value. I’m breaking up with fWAR.

FanGraphs WAR has been, to this point, the gold standard of single statistics; if you could only have one, it was the one I’d want. Including Statcast’s defensive metrics for position players was critical for me — it’s the best measure we have for something as complex as defense, so including it in the equation is critical. Basing pitcher value on a FIP basis mattered; it’s the best counter of what a pitcher is actually responsible for, and unlike the conventional Internet narrative, FIP does measure what actually happened. It measures your performance based on strikeouts, walks and home runs. Those things happened!

But Cam Schlittler has a 1.95 ERA, and bWAR starts by taking runs allowed and working backwards from there. By that metric, Cam is the third-best player in all of baseball, second-best pitcher behind Cristopher Sánchez, more than a full win ahead of those immoral hurlers Jacob Misiorowski and Dylan Cease.

Take Cam’s last three starts, this madcap September where he’s worked 21.0 innings. Yes they’ve come against the Angels, Rockies and Mets but I don’t care about that right now, I care about the 0.86 ERA in that stretch. Those three outings have built some distance between himself and Cease for the Cy Young award, but here’s the thing with FIP. Cam’s so good down the stretch that the only thing that can really get in his way is Cam himself — the sometimes-questionable Yankee defense can’t let him down if he strikes out 32 percent of men he faces.

Still, the two home runs and two walks means Schlittler’s FIP over those three starts is 2.05. Now 2.05 is an excellent FIP, Bob Gibson himself had only one season with a FIP lower than that. Still, back-of-the-envelope math tells us that 0.86 is better than 2.05, and has contributed to more of Cam’s bWAR lead than his fWAR lead.

They say it’s better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all, but I don’t even feel like I’m losing anything. bWAR captures perhaps the most important thing about a singular Yankee season, that Cam Schlittler is the best pitcher in the AL and just a hair off the best pitcher in the game itself. fWAR is dead, long live bWAR.

We have a three game series with the Rangers starting tonight.

The Jays (and Rangers) are two games back of the last Wild Card spot held by the Guardians (who are tied with the White Sox for the top of the AL West, so catching with either would work, though the White Sox hold the tiebreaker over the Jays, where the Jays hold the tiebreaker with the Guardians). The Jays also have to finish ahead of the Rangers.

Starting pitchers:

• Tonight, 8:00 Eastern: Dylan Cease (11-5, 2.38) vs Kumar Rocker (5-11, 4.54).
• Saturday, 7:00 Eastern: José Soriano (12-7, 3.56) vs Cal Quantrill (9-5, 2.90).
• Sunday, 2:30 Eastern: TBD, some sort of bullpen day with Spencer Arrighetti (8-9, 4.91) vs. Jacob deGrom (11-9, 3.79).

I’m still not a fan of bullpen days.

The Rangers are 11th in the AL in runs per game at 4.17 (Jays are last at 4.05).

And the Rangers are also 11th in the AL in runs allowed per game at 4.30 (Jays are 6th at 3.92).

The Rangers are 8-7 in September and are just off a four-game win streak (they lost yesterday to the Red Sox).

Unlike the Tigers, the Rangers record (76-77) is much better than than Pythagorean record (72-81).

Tigers top hitters:

• Ezequiel Durán, who has played every position other than catcher, this year, hitting .268/.329/.436 with 17 home runs, 43 walks and 131 k with a 4.4 bWAR. He’s an excellent defensive player at short and second.
• Corey Seager, SS. .234/.325/.434 with 18 home runs, 44 walks and 92 strikeouts, 3.1 bWAR.
• Jake Burger, 1B. .233/.305/.424 with 26 home runs, 52 walks and 156 strikeouts, 2.0 bWAR.
• Josh Jung, 3B. .298/.361/.449 with 10 home runs, 33 walks and 73 strikeouts, 1.8 bWAR.
• Joc Pederson, DH. .235/.329/.487 with 26 home runs, 49 walks and 102 strikeouts, 1.7 bWAR.

Bullpen:

• Jacob Latz: 2.11 ERA, 30 saves, 4 blown. Batters are hitting .146/.218/.270 against him.
• Tyler Alexander: 3.33, 4 saves, 2 blown, 13 holds. Batters are hitting .254/.315/.338 against him.
• Jakob Junis: 3.66 ERA, 6 saves, 2 blown, 18 holds. Batters are hitting .244/.309/.338 against him.
• Robby Ahlstrom: A lefty. 6.08, 7 holds, 1 blown. Batters are hitting .264/.346/.465 against him.

The Jays, pretty much, have to win this series, if they are going to make the playoffs.

The magic numbers for the Atlanta Braves are starting to get lower and lower now that we’re entering the final portion of the regular season. As far clinching Atlanta’s first Postseason bid since 2024 and their eighth playoff appearance in the past nine seasons, the math is as simple as it gets. The Braves get in here on Friday, September 18 with either:

• A win over the Astros, OR
• A Diamondbacks loss

That’s it. Just one of those things need to happen and the Braves will be sharing firm handshakes and pats on the back by the end of the night. As far as the division goes, there’s still some work needed to be done. The Phillies beat the Mets on Thursday night to kick off a four-game series so the magic number for the division is still at five. The tiebreaker and the calendar is on Atlanta’s side here, so a win on Friday night for the Braves would still go a long way.

Depending on the 2026 Mets is a fool’s errand but let’s just play it out. If the Mets can get a split while the Braves avoid getting swept then Atlanta’s going to be coming back home with a shot to clinch the division against the Cincinnati Reds. If the Phillies really trip up and lose three straight while the Braves take the series in Houston then the champagne could be popping in H-Town. The latter scenario is currently the only way that the Braves can end up clinching in Houston. I am not a doomer so I’m not going to entertain the doomsday scenarios so you can do that on your own.

I think we’d all prefer to see this end as early as possible but if I had to guess, we’ll probably see this race come to an end in Cobb County against the Reds. That’s still just a guess. I don’t think anybody would like to see this race end up heading into the final weekend with the Braves having to get something against a Marlins team that would likely relish being able to play the role of spoiler for their regular tormentors from Georgia while the Phillies would be getting a Rays team that would likely already have both the division and their seeding wrapped up by then.

So yeah, hopefully this all gets taken care of much sooner rather than later so Atlanta can ultimately turn their focus onto which minefield they’ll have to navigate in the Wild Card round between the Padres, Cubs and maybe even the Phillies. Again, both the tiebreaker and the calendar is on Atlanta’s side so this should get taken care of sooner rather than later. We’ll see what happens.

Only one minor league affiliate is still playing, and they were shut out on a two-hitter last night. But the show must go on!

Durham Bulls 2, Worcester Red Sox 0 (BOX)

Johan Oviedo beat the buzzer and got back on the mound in a rehab game on Thursday night. It was his first appearance at any level since March 30th (for Boston). Oviedo averaged 95.9 mph on both of his fastballs, and maxed out at 98.5 mph. He struck out four batters over 2 1/3 innings, allowing two hits, a walk, and one earned run, and was charged with the loss. While it might be aggressive to add him to the postseason roster, at least in round one, Oviedo was expected to be a key piece of the Red Sox rotation in 2026, acquired for Jhostynxon Garcia last offseason.

John Holobetz followed and was excellent, striking out eight over 4 1/3 shutout innings. Tyler Samaniego allowed a run in the eighth, and Noah Song threw a shutout ninth.

The Red Sox were shut down by former Cardinals great Jake Woodford, mustering just a double from Allan Castro, a single from Tomas Nido, and one walk at the plate.

With three games to go against the Bulls (TB) before the season comes to a close, Worcester is 39-31 in the second-half standings, three games out of first place, with three teams ahead of them in the standings. However, since Rochester is in first place in the second half, and also won the International League first half, Worcester is not a complete long shot to make the playoffs. If you want to look at the tiebreaker procedures in Triple-A, go nuts.

Michael Sansone (2-6, 6.55) gets the ball this evening at 6:05 for the Woo Sox. The Bulls will counter with Jesse Scholtens (3-4, 4.15).

The Woo Sox then play on Saturday at 4:05 and Sunday at 1:05. Numerous promotions remain during the final homestand, including opportunities to bring your children to play catch on the field and run the bases throughout the weekend. Get out there before summer comes to a close.

With this likely being the final Minor Lines of the year for me (Dean has you this weekend), I want to thank all of the readers at Over The Monster. It’s such a joy talking baseball with all of you. You can follow me on Twitter @BobOsgood15, and you can reach me at redseatpodcast@gmail.com throughout the postseason and offseason.

Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is chasing a 40 homer/40 stolen base season, which would be just the seventh such year in MLB history.

With 37 steals entering Friday’s action, he’ll need three steals in the remaining nine games to get there. And if he keeps hitting home runs — he’s hit five in his last 10 games — that obviously takes away a chance to steal. (Not that anyone’s complaining about the homers!)

Those 37 steals represent a rare level in Cubs history. Hall of Famer Kiki Cuyler stole that many in 1930. He led the National League that year and it was his third straight year with at least 37.

In the 96 seasons since 1930, there have been 590 player seasons of at least 37 stolen bases across the major leagues.

Just 11 of those years have been posted by members of the Chicago Cubs, and just four of those have been in the last 30 years:

Last night it was reported that the Washington Nationals were closing in on a contract extension for Cade Cavalli, the staff ace. I was going to hold off on writing about this until it was official, but as more time passes, I thought it was important to give an update. Locking up Cavalli would be a strong statement of intent for both the front office and ownership.

Robert Murray was the first to report on this deal but many others, including Spencer Nusbaum have also confirmed that a deal is close. For years, Nats fans have wanted to see extensions. Locking up home grown players has not been happening very often in DC. The only time in recent history that the Nats gave out an extension was Keibert Ruiz’s 8 year deal back in 2023.

Since then, the Nats have been very hesitant to give out long term contracts. In fact, we have not seen them go past two years for any players since Ruiz. However, it looks like that will change soon with Cavalli. If/when this deal is done, it will be something that benefits both the player and the team.

For these extensions, it takes two to tango. With Cavalli, it is easy to see why he would be receptive to a deal. He had a very bumpy road back from Tommy John Surgery and many people lost faith in him. The organization always stood by him and kept him in the plans. That loyalty gave the two sides a strong relationship.

In his age 27 season, Cavalli has rewarded the faith and has emerged as one of the best starters in the National League. This season, he has a 3.12 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 164.2 innings. Cavalli should get some down ballot Cy Young votes in his first full season as a big leaguer. He has also taken his game to another level here in the second half.

Despite only making 11 career starts this season, the new regime had a ton of trust in Cavalli. We saw that when he was made the Opening Day starter. Giving that honor to such an inexperienced player is usual but it showed how much belief the team had in Cavalli. 

Seeing two parties with a good working relationship come together and make a deal is a beautiful thing. Hopefully this extension is done before too long. While the deal is moving, it does seem like there still are a couple final hurdles to clear. That is what Talk Nats reported earlier this morning. 

The fact this deal is public knowledge now makes me think it is very likely to happen though. Paul Toboni and the Lerner’s can’t really afford to let this slip away now that it is out in the open. Hopefully it can get done today before Cade Cavalli takes the mound tonight in St. Louis.

We still don’t know the official details of the deal. However, Mark Zuckerman did provide some insight. He said that the deal will buy out at least one of his free agent years. That means the deal will be at least four years.

I would think that the sweet spot here would be a 5 or 6 year deal. At 28 years old, you don’t want to make the deal too long. However, I want to see them buy out multiple free agent years. A four year deal would just feel like window dressing to me.

Hopefully we can see the details soon. My final prediction is that this is a 5-year $80 million deal with a club option for a 6th year. That is just me looking at comparable deals and making an educated guess. When actual details come, I will keep you guys updated.

If you look at the roster for the 2013 Yankees, it reads like a fever dream. Sure, there are the Yankees of that era that you remember, but other than Robinson Canó and Brett Gardner, most of them hardly played that season. There are also some names that you probably don’t remember playing in the big leagues at all, never mind as Yankees. Then, there’s the ones that you may remember as players, but completely forgot that they donned pinstripes.

I remember a lot of players from that roster, because I am a sicko, but it would be completely understandable if you forgot about Brent Lillibridge — who celebrates his 43rd birthday day — and his Yankees’ run.

Brent Stuart Lillibridge
Born: September 18, 1983 (Everett, WA)
Yankees Tenure: 2013

Born in Washington state, Lillibridge was raised in the Everett, WA area and attended Henry M. Jackson High School. From there, he earned a baseball scholarship to the University of Washington, where he starred for the Huskies for three seasons. At UW, he made the All-Pac 10 team three-straight seasons, making him one to watch in the 2005 MLB Draft. The Pirates ended up taking Lillibridge in the fourth round.

After a couple years in Pittsburgh’s system, Lillibridge was part of a January 2007 trade that sent him and Mike Gonzalez to the Braves for Adam LaRoche and Jamie Romak. By that time, Lillibridge was cracking the top 100 prospect range according to some outlets.

As he reached the upper levels of the minors, Lillibridge’s hitting stats were tailing off just a tad. However, he still got the callup to the majors in 2008, as the Braves needed an infielder to fill in as they dealt with injuries. He ended up appearing in 29 big league games for Atlanta in ‘08, putting up a .576 OPS.

That offseason, Lillibridge was on the move again. The Braves traded him to the White Sox as part of a package that sent soon to be Yankees Javier Vázquez and Boone Logan to Atlanta. In Chicago, Lillibridge became especially known for his defense. Having spent much of his early career in the infield, Lillibridge became a utility man for the White Sox, and playing a good amount in the outfield. In one 2011 game, he made a pair of impressive game-saving catches against the Yankees, including this one to win the game.

However, Lillibridge’s hitting never quite matched up to the fielding, and he became a bit of a journeyman in the years after that. In June 2012, he was part of a package that went to Boston with Kevin Youkilis going to the White Sox. However, he spent only a month in Boston before being traded to Cleveland. They released him that offseason, and Lillibridge went back to Chicago, albeit on a minor league deal with the Cubs.

In 2013, Lillibridge spent some time on the Cubs’ major league roster, but the injury-ravaged Yankees purchased him from Chicago in June. A month later, after having to put Derek Jeter on the IL in a very stop-start penultimate year for the Captain, the Yankees called up Lillibridge.

Lillibridge had been hitting well enough in the minors, and in his first couple games with the Yankees, he picked up two hits, a walk, and a couple RBI.

However, like so many others in that doomed 2013 season, his hitting fell off after that. In 11 games as a Yankee, he hit .171/.194/.200. On August 5th, the Yankees activated Alex Rodriguez after an injury and DFA’ed Lillibridge.

After that, Lillibridge returned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre for the rest of 2013. He opted to sign a minor league deal with the Rangers for 2014, but didn’t make it back to the majors. After that season, he retired from baseball. In the years since, Lillibridge has returned to his native Washington, where he is now one of the owners of a Baseball and Softball training center.

They somehow finished 2013 with a winning record, but that season was a cursed one for the Yankees. Brent Lillibridge was one of a number of players who tried their best in that cursed year.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

The road to October has already ended for some teams.

While much of baseball remains focused on division races and wild-card battles, a growing list of clubs has been relegated to thinking about next year. That group includes the New York Mets, whose $375 million-plus payroll wasn't enough to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Here's every MLB team that has been mathematically eliminated from the 2026 postseason race.

The Phillies’ offense has largely sat as one of the worst in the sport, ranking 28th in wRC+, 23rd in on-base percentage, and 23rd in raw OPS. It’s probably about as bad as an offense can be while the team is on track to make the postseason.

There was supposed to be a switch that flipped. The Phillies had a meeting in late July to try to fix their approach issues.

It started producing results quickly. Through the first 21 games in August, the offense looked transformed overnight. They had the highest walk rate in the sport at 12.0%, a full tick above the next highest team in the Brewers. They struck out only 14.7% of the time with newly acquired Luis Arraez and a sudden Justin Crawford bump. There wasn’t a ton of thump in the lineup but they ranked 15th in ISO which is enough given what else they were doing.

There were some obvious reasons to believe the trend wouldn’t continue. Of the seven different teams they played over that 21 game span, only one of them rank above 15th in ERA and only one of them had a top half of the league walk rate. They were inevitably going to work a few more walks but it still seemed like something could click.

In the next 21 games, which include a 13-walk performance against a Washington Nationals bullpen game, their walk rate dropped to 8.6% (and if you take that game away, it drops to 7.3%) and they have the worst offense in the sport. Both trends are small but the latter one is a bit closer to where the team was before for the previous 4 full months.

The last time a team that finished in the bottom 10 in wRC+ to make the World Series was the 2014 Kansas City Royals, who finished 21st. The biggest question for the Phillies heading into the playoffs is if it’s possible to make a deep postseason run with one of the worst offenses in the sport. The answer is probably no.

Brandon Marsh

One of the tougher calls that Don Mattingly is going to have to make is what to do in left field over the next few weeks. Since July 1, no qualified hitter in baseball has a worse wRC+ than Brandon Marsh and the gap isn’t close. He’s hitting just .179 with a .489 OPS and has been worth -1.5 fWAR in that span. He’s a mess.

There have been a few contributing issues that have brought Marsh to this point but if we just want to focus on the recent struggles, he is actually putting the ball in play a bit. Given his career trend to run a strikeout rate in the high 20s or low 30s, an 18.4% K% since the start of August sounds amazing but his average exit velocity is down to 88.2 mph with a 38% hard hit rate.

Compare that to 2025, where he was still getting platooned but put together a nice season overall with a .785 OPS that played a solid left field. His average exit velocity was nearly 3 mph harder and a hard hit rate that was over eight percent higher. He needs to hit the ball hard to do damage.

As John Kruk said it on the broadcast last night, Brandon Marsh looks like a guy who is swinging not to miss and not swinging to do damage. That just doesn’t work for him.

The Phillies have two alternatives and neither seems amazing. They could give Bryan De La Cruz more starts but he’s just 5 for 21 in August while mostly getting favorable matchups.

The other option is sliding Justin Crawford to left field for Derek Hill to play center. It would boost the outfield defense but Derek Hill has a .656 OPS against right-handed pitchers this year in a very limited sample size. Their best bet might just be to hope Marsh figures something out.

In a battle for the final National League Wild Card postseason berth, San Diego Padres reliever Yuki Matsui has been one of the unsung heroes in the team’s second-half comeback. His dominance down the stretch has solidified him as a premier high-leverage bullpen option for the playoffs.

Let’s not forget that Matsui was hampered by a left groin strain that forced him to miss all of Spring Training. Before the season opener, the Padres placed Matsui on the injured list. 

The Friar Faithful feared he would struggle to get outs and end potential scoring threats. After rejoining the major league roster in early May, Matsui quickly emerged as a reliable arm in the Friars’ bullpen. 

The maturation of a MLB reliever 

In his third season in San Diego, Matsui has graduated from a situational lefty specialist to a multi-inning reliever. His 2026 stats have dwarfed the production from the previous two seasons. Matsui will eclipse his career-high in innings pitched before the regular season concludes. 

The 30-year-old southpaw is at his best when he can repeat his delivery. His four-seam fastball has touched in the mid-90s; it plays off perfectly when thrown in sequence with a sharp slider. However, Matsui’s most effective pitch is his devastating split-finger fastball. All three pitches have generated plenty of swings and misses this season.

Having good command of his pitches is why Matsui’s ERA is two runs lower than last season’s. It has also helped him achieve the highest strikeout rate (26.4) and the lowest home run rate (2.9) in his major league career.

The lone blemish on his breakout season is his walk rate (13.4), which is a little too high for comfort. 

Matsui has been outstanding down the stretch

In September, he is making a name for himself as a sixth- and seventh-inning pitching option. Matsui has posted a 1.57 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP, six strikeouts, and one earned run allowed in 6.2 innings pitched. 

Padres skipper Craig Stammen is eyeing the left-hander for a more prominent role once the postseason begins. He will have to be creative with his bullpen usage in the Wild Card round. 

If Matsui continues to produce, he will remain in the mix for high-leverage situations. 

The next step is executing when called upon.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (72-74) lost 7-5 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board in the first inning on a Schiavone RBI double. Mayer got the start but ran into some trouble in the 2nd inning allowing 5 runs. He ended up going 4 innings and allowing 6 runs, 5 earned. Sugar Land got a run back on a Ferreras RBI groundout and another in the 5th on a Matthews sac fly. The offense picked up 2 runs in 7th as they cut the lead to one. Munoz allowed a run in the 9th and the offense was quiet the rest of the way as Sugar Land fell 7-5.

Note: Teng has a 2.70 ERA in Triple-A.

• Lucas Spence, RF: 1-for-4, R, 2B, BB
• Pascanel Ferreras, 3B: 0-for-4, RBI, BB
• Jason Schiavone, 1B: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI
• Zach Cole, CF: 1-for-4, 2B
• Collin Price, C: 1-for-3, BB
• Cesar Salazar, DH: 1-for-2, 3 R, 2 BB

• Bryce Mayer, RHP: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 8 K
• Christian Roa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Kai-Wei Teng, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (62-76) SEASON OVER

A+: Asheville Tourists (43-87) SEASON OVER

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers – CAROLINA LEAGUE CHAMPS

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Ryan Weiss – 7:05 CT

CC: SEASON OVER

AV: SEASON OVER

FV: SEASON OVER

Breathe a sigh of relief. For now, anyway.

Willson Contreras was forced to leave last night’s game after getting hit by a pitch in the right hand. It looked pretty bad in the moment and he later said his hand went numb for about five minutes. Thankfully, post-game x-rays were negative. But, given how the Red Sox medical staff has diagnosed injuries this year, well, you know:

It was the 24th(!) time that Contreras has been hit this year and he’s had more than enough of it. “I feel like … ” Contreras said, pausing for seven seconds, “I want to say something I can’t say. Let’s leave it at that… If nobody does anything about it, I’m going to keep getting hit. That’s the way I see it. That’s it.”

Regardless of the x-rays, don’t expect to see Willson in the lineup any time soon in light of the fact that the Sox don’t really have anything to play for. (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

Contreras wasn’t the only injury scare we had during last night’s game. Even though the Sox found themselves in a save situation, closer Aroldis Chapman did not make it into the game. Is this something to worry about?
“He’s just dealing with some lat tightness we’re going to be conservative with,” Chad Tracy said. “It’s getting better, but we’ve got to make sure it gets there. That’s why he wasn’t available tonight.” (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

If Chapman does go down for an extended time, the Sox don’t have another all-time great closer to replace him with. But they are pretty good in the giant Cuban fireballer department in general. That’s because Johan Oviedo made his first rehab appearance last night, hitting 98.5 on the gun and striking out 4 over 2.1 innings. (Katie Morrison-O’day, MassLive)

Meanwhile, there’s another injury to keep on eye on in the lineup. “Nearly three months after Caleb Durbin first dislocated his left pinkie and more than a month after he reinjured it, the third baseman’s digit remains locked nearly at a right angle.” Durbin is unable to fully straighten the finger and it could require offseason surgery, but he’s staying on the field for now. “There really is kind of a joint understanding that we’ll get it looked at at the end of the season if we have to, because [whatever the diagnosis is], it’s not going to impact my decision to play at all,” he said. (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

The Orioles backed themselves into a corner where they probably need to win every remaining game or all but one remaining game in order to make the postseason. They responded to being in that corner by sweeping the Mets, a not very good team, in a series where the Mets fans were all continually cheering for the best Orioles player. Now they are back in Baltimore to face the team in MLB with the best record so far this season, the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee has been laying waste to just about all comers as this season goes along. Their 95-58 record is the best thing anybody has going on this year. They have already clinched their division title, and at this point they only “need” to win games to make sure they stay ahead of the Dodgers for the #1 seed in the National League. The back-to-back champions are currently at 93 wins. That one isn’t a done deal yet for the Brewers.

One part of why the Brewers have been able to do this is the absolute freak Jacob Misiorowski, a second-year starting pitcher who’s taken a big leap this year after a mixed bag rookie season a year ago. Misiorowski is averaging over 100mph on his fastball and it’s proving mostly unhittable, which is how he’s been able to drop a 1.89 ERA and 0.812 WHIP on the league. As of this writing, it seems that we will not see Misiorowski pitch in this series, though the Brewers do have a TBD for Sunday and until that turns into someone else, I guess it might be him.

The bullpen is holding up its share of the weight as well. There are six relievers, including former Oriole DL Hall, who are sitting with a 3.50 ERA or better. Hall, in fact, has a 2.17 ERA through 43 games. Closer Trevor Megill has a 0.902 WHIP in his 57.1 innings. You are doing pretty well as a closer if you are allowing fewer than one baserunner per inning pitched. It is a very good way to seal wins.

The Brewers have also scored more runs than anybody else in baseball. They have been able to do this in part because there are six decent-to-great hitters in their regular lineup, plus two guys on the bench (including former Oriole Gary Sánchez) who are doing well in their reserve opportunities. They’re getting a breakout season from first baseman Jake Bauers at age 30, another “good hitting, great defense” season from Brice Turang, and even former Oriole Joey Ortiz, who was absolutely terrible at the plate a year ago, has bounced back to decent.

These guys are helping themselves out by cashing in the scoring opportunities that they do get. Their split with runners in scoring position is nearly 60 points higher than their regular batting. This is the #1 number among all MLB teams. (The Orioles, with a .759 OPS with RISP, are in 10th.)

This is a complete team that hasn’t had much postseason success despite fairly dominant regular seasons. They have won their division five times since the 2018 season, with two wild card bids, and have advanced past the first round in which they played just twice. That gives them the edge over the Mike Elias era Orioles in two ways: They’ve actually been consistently good, and they’ve actually won a few playoff games here and there.

The Orioles are inferior to this team in basically every way and they’ve got to manage to sweep this series or at the absolute worst win two out of three. Yeah, good luck with that.

As of this writing, the Orioles are listing TBD as their starting pitchers for every game of the series. Very helpful for bloggers who are trying to say something informative about the series. It appears likely that Cade Povich will be recalled from Norfolk to start one of the games.

Game 1: Friday, 7:05pm Eastern

• BAL starter: TBD
• MIL starter: Dustin May – 4.49 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 1.287 WHIP in 28 games (Cardinals then Brewers)

May was a well-regarded pitching prospect so long ago that people were hoping that the Orioles would be able to pry him loose from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, and disappointed when they did not manage to do so. Due to a variety of injury challenges (and one global pandemic) he hasn’t pitched a full season worth of starts in his seven-year career until this season. Dean Kremer, the pitcher the Orioles actually got, has more than doubled May’s career bWAR to date.

The 29-year-old 6’6” righty appeared to be a victim of bad luck with the Cardinals earlier this year, allowing a .322 BABIP that probably wasn’t all his fault. Since joining the Brewers, May’s BABIP luck has improved (.288) but he’s getting substantially worse results, probably because he’s now giving up home runs and other hard contact like it’s going out of style. There does exist the possibility that the Orioles will show up with a game plan that allows them to take advantage of this.

Game 2: Saturday, 7:05pm Eastern

• BAL starter: TBD
• MIL starter: Robert Gasser – 4.30 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.266 WHIP in 19 games

Gasser is in his third season with the Brewers, though he had to get Tommy John surgery just five starts into his MLB career and as a result, he’d only pitched in seven major league games before this season. He started this season out with Milwaukee’s Triple-A team and eventually was added to the MLB club, since when he’s done… fine. He has the same ERA+ as Trevor Rogers this season. That feels less bad when you’ve got a guy doing what Misiorowski has done at the top of the rotation as compared to what has happened with Orioles starting pitching.

The Statcast peripherals for Gasser are not good. He has been particularly vulnerable to giving up hard contact. He does not get many ground balls, he does not throw the ball hard, he does not get a lot of swing-and-miss and he doesn’t get batters to chase very often outside of the strike zone. Absolutely none of which means that the Orioles offense will do well against him on Saturday. Gasser is left-handed.

Game 3: Sunday, 7:20pm Eastern

• BAL starter: TBD
• MIL starter: TBD

Note: This game airs on Peacock and only on Peacock.

Double TBD. Sheesh. Get it together, teams.

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How do you think this series is going to go for the Orioles? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.