Category: MLB

The Cincinnati Reds will send lefty Andrew Abbott to the mound on Sunday afternoon in Great American Ball Park. Their Opening Day starter will have the chance to lead them to another series victory, as that’s what a win today over the Los Angeles Angels would provide them after Saturday’s 7-3 win.

Jose Soriano, who has been excellent so far this year, will start for LA.

The Reds are rolling out an offensive-first lineup for this one with Nate Lowe in at DH, Eugenio Suarez over at 3B, and Ke’Bryan Hayes mercifully on the pine to start.

First pitch is set for 1:40 PM ET. Lineups for both clubs are listed below.

Go Reds!

Mets lineup

Francisco Lindor – SS
Jorge Polanco – DH
Jared Young – 1B
Bo Bichette – 3B
Brett Baty – RF
Marcus Semien – 2B
Carson Benge – CF
Luis Torrens – C
Tyrone Taylor – LF

Freddy Peralta – RHP

Athletics lineup

Lawrence Butler – RF
Nick Kurtz – 1B
Shea Langeliers – C
Tyler Soderstrom – LF
Carlos Cortes – DH
Max Muncy – 3B
Jeff McNeil – 2B
Darell Hernaiz – SS
Denzel Clarke – CF

Aaron Civale – RHP

Broadcast info

First pitch: 1:40 PM EDT
TV: SNY
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

At the start of the Athletics weeklong trip to New York City to play the New York Yankees and Mets, few thought the team would walk away with two series wins. The A’s have proved doubters wrong as they enter today’s series finale against the Mets with a chance to sweep their first series of the season and finish their time in “The Big Apple” with five wins in six games.

Yesterday, the A’s finally snapped their multi-game home run drought. By doing so, the team introduced its new home run celebration, a cool but somewhat creepy looking elephant mask andgold chain featuring an elephant’s head. Left fielder Tyler Soderstrom donned the mask twice, his second home run coming at a critical moment in the game. The Mets had scored five unanswered to cut the A’s lead from 7-1 to 7-6. In the eighth inning, with the game’s momentum firmly on the hosts side, Soderstrom hit a three-run home run to right-center, his blast all but sealing the A’s series-clinching victory.

Right-hander Aaron Civale will be on the mound today as the A’s vie for the sweep. Through two starts, Civale (1-0, 2.70 ERA) has been the solid veteran pitcher the A’s needed. He does not throw hard, yet he moves the baseball around and gets batters out. Having gone five innings in each of his first two starts, the A’s would love for him to pitch at least that many innings today against a reeling but talented Mets lineup.

The A’s lineup on this fine Sunday:

This morning’s A’s lineup is nearly unchanged from yesterday, except designated hitter Carlos Cortes moves up after his three-run homer Saturday. Backup infielder Darell Hernáiz starts at shortstop with Jacob Wilson getting the day off. Recently promoted infielder Zack Gelof, who took the injured Brent Rooker’s place on the team’s roster, is on the bench again. A’s manager Mark Kotsay should give Gelof, who has significantly regressed since his impressive rookie performance, some playing time in Sacramento this week to evaluate whether he is worth keeping around or not.

Civale will be opposed by Mets right-hander Freddy Peralta this morning. The Mets acquired Peralta from the Milwaukee Brewers in one of this past offseason’s biggest trades. The longtime Brewers ace is 1-0 with a 4.80 ERA through his first three starts with his new team. Peralta will pose a stiff challenge for the Athletics’ offense. A’s hitters will have to bring the solid approaches they displayed yesterday and pounce on any mistakes Peralta makes.

The Mets’ lineup:

Can the Athletics complete the sweep? Who will earn the elephant mask today? Let’s go A’s!

Today’s roster move: Here

Sunday notes…

• NOT WINNING THE CLOSE ONES: The Cubs are 1-2 so far in games decided by one run. Last year, they finished 25-19, making 2025 the first full season they had a winning record in such games since 2018, when they were 26-25. They were 10-9 in the 60-game 2020 season. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• THROW THOSE GUYS OUT, PLEASE: The Pirates stole four bases yesterday. They were the first team with four thefts against the Cubs since the Nationals did it at Wrigley Field on Sept. 19, 2024. The Cubs won that game, 7-6. Yesterday’s game was the Cubs’ 184th game since then. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• STILL GOOD AGAINST PITTSBURGH: The Cubs are 113-70 (.617) vs. the Pirates since the start of the 2015 campaign, their best record vs. an NL opponent.
• MAYBE TRY THIS: Since the beginning of last season, the Cubs are an MLB-best 72-21 (.774) when scoring the first run of the game. They have scored the game’s first run in 10 of their 14 games this season and are 7-3 in those games.

Cubs lineup:

The Pirates lineup was not available at posting time. Please check BCB social media for the Pirates lineup.

Jameson Taillon, RHP vs. Bubba Chandler, RHP

A long time ago (16 years, to be exact) Jameson Taillon was the Pirates’ No. 1 pick (second overall) out of high school in Florida. He pitched four years for them before moving on to the Yankees, and then the Cubs.

Taillon’s numbers this year look decent (2.53 ERA, 1.219 WHIP) but he struggled in his first start (even though it ended up scoreless), then threw a bit better in completing six innings his second time out.

He threw well against the Pirates last year, six hits and two runs in 12.1 innings. Overall current Pirates are batting .233 (24-for-103) against Taillon with one home run (Bryan Reynolds).

Bubba Chandler made his MLB debut last year and posted a 4.02 ERA in seven games (four starts). This year in two starts for the Pirates he has posted a 3.12 ERA, which isn’t terrible but this is: He’s leading the NL in walks allowed with 10 in just 8.2 innings. Oddly, walks were not an issue with him in his 31.1 MLB innings last year — just four of them. Chandler throws hard, as you can see by the chart below, but doesn’t always know where the ball is going.

So maybe Cubs hitters, who are generally patient, can work some walks. Chandler has never faced the Cubs and the only Cub who has faced him is Michael Conforto (o-for-2).

In case you were wondering, Bubba’s actualy given name is Roy. The last players named “Roy” in MLB were Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay, whose careers both ended after 2013.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout. If you do go there to interact with Pirates fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

/goes back to bed.

The Milwaukee Brewers have had a rough week. After wrapping up their third consecutive series win last weekend in Kansas City, Milwaukee moved to 8-2 with a series-opening win in Boston on Monday. Since then, however, they’ve lost four straight. In those four losses — two to the Red Sox and two to the Nationals — the Brewers have mostly fallen short offensively, scoring just six runs.

They’ll look to snap that skid — and prevent a sweep at the hands of the Nationals — on Sunday afternoon at American Family Field. Brandon Woodruff gets the ball for Milwaukee, coming off a rough start in the Crew’s last win on Monday. In that one, he went 5 2/3 innings, allowing five runs on eight hits, a pair of walks, and a notable hit-by-pitch of Willson Contreras. He also struck out four.

Opposite Woodruff will be a familiar foe in Zack Littell. Littell spent last season with the Rays and Reds, making three starts against Milwaukee (two with the Reds, one with the Rays), allowing four runs and striking out 11 over 16 2/3 innings. In two appearances this season, he’s totaled 10 innings with four runs allowed and seven strikeouts.

The Brewer lineup features Brice Turang atop the order, followed by William Contreras and Christian Yelich at DH. Garrett Mitchell bats cleanup, followed by Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick. Brandon Lockridge rounds out the outfield, batting seventh, with David Hamilton and Joey Ortiz batting eighth and ninth, respectively.

First pitch in this one is set for 1:10 p.m. CT, available as usual on Brewers.TV, along with WTMJ 620 and the Brewers Radio Network.

After pulling out a narrow win on Saturday afternoon, the Phillies will go for the series win against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday.

Andrew Painter will make the third start of his young career in the rubber match.

The Diamondbacks will go with veteran righthander Zac Gallen. Gallen has had success against the Phillies over the years with a 2.52 ERA in seven career starts.

Game time is 1:35 PM and will be televised locally on NBCSP.

A.J. Russell made his second pro appearance for the Crawdads, using 34 pitches in one inning of work, striking out two, walking two, allowing two hits and giving up two runs. Louis Marinaro struck out four in 1.2 shutout innings.

Yolfran Castillo had a hit, two walks and a stolen base. Paulino Santana had a hit, a walk and a stolen base. Esteban Mejia had a hit and a walk. josh Spring had a hit and two walks. Dewar Tovar had a double and a walk. Marcos Torres had a hit and a walk.

Hickory box score

Hub City starter Ismael Agreda struck out seven and walked two in 4.1 scoreless innings. Anthony Susac struck out one in 1.1 scoreless.

Hub City had one hit — a single by Arturo Disla — and two walks. Through seven games, the Spartanburgers are slashing .143/.233/.224 as a club.

Hub City box score

Dylan MacLean started for Frisco and gave up five runs in 3.2 IP, striking out two and walking two. Eric Loomis struck out two and allowed a Zombie Runner to score in an inning of work.

Ian Moller homered. Dylan Dreiling was 3 for 4 with a walk and a stolen base.

Frisco box score

For Round Rock, Dane Acker threw 2.2 shutout innings, striking out one and walking one. Robbie Ahlstrom gave up two runs in an inning, striking out one. Ryan Brasier allowed three runs in 0.2 IP. Josh Sborz struck out three and walked two in 1.1 IP. Michel Otanez gave up a walkoff two out, three run home run.

Justin Foscue was 2 for 6 with a double. Aaron Zavala had a single, a double and a walk.

Round Rock box score

Things continue to trend in the right direction for Mets starter Clay Holmes.

After exiting Friday’s game against the Athletics with hamstring tightness, it sounds like, barring anything unexpected, Holmes will be able to make his next scheduled start against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday night. 

“Talked to him earlier, he feels good,” manager Carlos Mendoza said on Sunday. “The plan is for him to go out there and do his normal throwing routine [today]. Scheduled to throw his bullpen tomorrow, and the goal is for him to make his next start in LA.”

Holmes, who has pitched to a 1.50 ERA through three outings this season, said after Friday’s game that he was “optimistic” that he’d be able to make his next start.

"Feel like I’ll be able to make my next start," Holmes said at the time. "But until I wake up tomorrow, we don’t really know. Can’t rule anything out, but feel pretty good about it right now. I can still keep throwing. I didn’t feel it tighten up on a throw….I think we’ll be good, but we’ll have to see."

Holmes is scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, with David Peterson and Nolan McLean set for the first two games against the Dodgers.

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Sunday Night Baseball greets us with an intriguing pitching matchup as the Atlanta Braves close a series with the Cleveland Guardians, featuring a duel between Chris Sale and Tanner Bibee. 

Both of these pitchers have decent pedigrees, but neither has gotten off to a good start in 2026.

My Guardians vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks break down why the Over and underdog have some value on Sunday, April 12. 

Who will win Guardians vs Braves today: Guardians +1.5 (-130)

Those waiting for Chris Sale to decline with age haven’t seen what they expected. He’s coming off back-to-back sub-3.00 ERA seasons for the first time since 2018, which is a real statement about where his stuff still is. But a big story of that? Early season struggles. He allowed four or more runs in half of his first five starts.

I’m still viewing him through the lens of the early-season struggle here. His last appearance against the Angels showcased that when he allowed six earned runs in four innings. That’s notable because that’s a lineup that doesn’t exactly have the best plate appearances.

In contrast, this matchup is different. The Cleveland Guardians are disciplined, with A bottom-10 chase and whiff rates. Sale still relies on the chase and will struggle to get it. They’ll make him work and force competitive pitches to be thrown. That profile makes him work, raises his pitch count, and creates value on this spread. 

COVERS INTEL: Chris Sale is 7-8 with a 4.44 ERA in 23 career starts against Cleveland, his worst record against any AL Central opponent.

Guardians vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+106)

I made this total 7.7, and getting a plus money price is enough to make me lean over. If we think the Guardians can plate a few runs, then we aren’t asking for much from Atlanta. And Tanner Bibee is an underdog for a reason.

While I think the 28% whiff rate will cause a perennial swing-free Braves team plenty of issues, there’s also a good chance for Atlanta to have a few big swings that do enough to push this over.

Bibee’s hard-contact numbers are among the worst in baseball through three starts, with a bottom 15th percentile barrel rate, bottom 7th percentile hard-hit rate, and one of the highest average exit velocities in the sport.

That’s enough for me to believe the Braves can do the minimum amount of damage required to get this over.

Guardians vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Guardians +159 | Braves -194
• Run line: Guardians +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Guardians vs Braves trend

The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games (+11.00 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Braves.

How to watch Guardians vs Braves and game info

Guardians vs Braves latest injuries

Guardians vs Braves weather

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The Cubs signed left-hander Charlie Barnes to a minor-league deal in January. Barnes did appear in two Spring Training games for the Cubs, throwing two scoreless innings with three strikeouts. He was assigned to Triple-A Iowa and has pitched in three games there, posting a 2.38 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 11.1 innings.

Today, the Cubs recalled Barnes from Iowa and placed Hunter Harvey on the 15-day injured list with right triceps inflammation.

Barnes has nine games of MLB experience (eight starts) with the Twins in 2021, where he posted a 5.92 ERA in 38 innings. He spent the last four years pitching for Lotte in KBO. Barnes is 30 and played college ball at Clemson. Interestingly, Barnes and Caleb Thielbar were teammates with the Twins in 2021.

Barnes was also added to the 40-man roster, which had an open spot due to the DFA of Dylan Carlson on Friday.

Alex Vesia got the final out of Saturday night’s Dodgers win over the Texas Rangers, striking out the potential tying run at the plate to earn his first save of the season.

Vesia, a longstanding member of Dave Roberts’ trust tree in the bullpen, has 15 career saves, 14 of them in the regular season and another in Game 2 of the 2024 World Series. Saturday night was notable for another reason, in that it was Vesia’s 30th birthday.

That got me to thinking, what other Dodgers recorded saves on their birthdays?

The first person I thought of was Kenley Jansen, the franchise leader in games pitched and saves. He was born on September 30, and has two such saves in his career. One of them was with the Dodgers, in 2017, on his 30th birthday, just like Vesia on Saturday.

That was Jansen’s best season, and he was fifth in National League Cy Young voting. Here’s what I wrote after that game nine years ago:

Jansen finished his 2017 with a 1.32 ERA, and 109 strikeouts in 68⅓ IP with only seven walks, just the third pitcher ever with triple-digit strikeouts and single-digit walks in a season.

Since then, two others have joined that elite group of at least 100 strikeouts and fewer than 10 walks, but five pitchers is very select company.

At first I was going through the Dodgers’ all-time saves list, but ignoring folks with saves awarded retroactively before the statistic was officially added in 1969. There were many Dodgers closers born in the baseball offseason, and they never got a chance to record a save on their birthday. But this was a tedious effort, until I remembered I could use the Stathead play index, where I sorted every Dodgers save since 1969 by age.

Only five Dodgers pitchers in total saved games on their birthdays. Here are the three others besides Vesia and Jansen.

Lerrin LaGrow

The right-hander pitched for five teams in his career, mostly the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox. In May 1979, the Dodgers acquired LaGrow for cash, and he had a 3.41 ERA in 31 games the rest of the season. He struck out 22 and walked 18 in 37 innings, which was a thing you could do at the time.

LaGrow saved four games for the Dodgers. On July 8, LaGrow’s 31st birthday, he was called in to clean up Terry Forster’s ninth inning, after Tony Pérez doubled home a run to get the Montreal Expos within 8-6. Gary Carter represented the tying run, but LaGrow got him to bounce back to the box for the final out of the game.

Tom Niedenfuer

Niedenfuer is notable in Dodgers lore, though for the wrong reasons, as his giving up game-winning home runs in Games 5 and 6 for the 1985 National League Championship Series overshadowed his half-decade of mostly excellent relief at the back end of the bullpen.

He’s the only two-time member of the birthday save club. Born on August 13, Niedenfuer earned saves on both his 26th and 27th birthdays.

On August 13, 1985, Mike Marshall hit a two-run home run in the eighth inning, giving the Dodgers a 2-1 lead over the Atlanta Braves. Carlos Diaz and Ken Howell faced the first three batters in the ninth inning but recorded only one out. In came Niedenfuer with the tying and go-ahead runs on base, and he induced a popout to second base and strikeout to finish out the win.

One year later the Dodgers were in Houston, and Orel Hershiser started the ninth inning going for a 5-0 shutout win. Things didn’t go quite has planned, with three hits and two walks bringing home three runs, after allowing only two singles in his first eight innings. Now in a 5-3 game, and with the tying runs on base, Niedenfuer was summoned from the bullpen, and he struck out Phil Garner to close out the win for his second straight birthday save.

Caleb Ferguson

Drafted out of high school in 2014, Ferguson debuted with the Dodgers on June 6, 2018, and his first four major league appearances were three starts and a four-inning relief affair. Then came soaking up two innings to close out a loss. But in his sixth major league game, the Dodgers were drubbing the Pirates 17-1, so they handed the ball to Ferguson on his 22nd birthday to finish things out.

Ferguson allowed three hits and a walk but no runs to earn a three-inning save, the most noble of these birthday saves.

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The Dodgers may be a super team, but many of them will be getting their first look at Jacob de Grom, and the ones that have seen him before probably don’t have fond memories. 

In other Sunday games, Yordan Alvarez and Mickey Moniak are on early tears and will be looking to continue them with favorable matchups against the opposing starting pitchers. 

Check out my MLB player props for Sunday, April 12.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Jacob deGrom	Over 5.5 strikeouts	-160
Yordan Alvarez	Over 0.5 RBI	+160
Mickey Moniak	Over 1.5 H/R/R	+105

Jacob deGrom Over 5.5 strikeouts (-160)

Several key members of the Dodgers lineup will be facing the former Cy Young Award winner for the first time, including Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker. Of the eight Dodgers familiar with Jacob de Grom, none has an OPS higher than .703. That would be Freddie Freeman, who has also struck out 21 times in 69 at-bats against him. 

Through two starts, de Grom is striking out 12.1 batters per nine innings, his highest rate since 2023. He struck out 15 per nine in spring training, which is why he gets the nod in my MLB picks for today.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: RSN, SNLA

Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBI (+160)

Yordan Alvarez leads the league in OPS, OPS+, slugging, and home runs. He is 5-for-9 in the first two games of the Seattle series, driving in four of Houston’s 13 runs and homering in both games. He also has four extra base hits, five RBIs, and an .887 OPS in 26 lifetime at-bats against Mariners starter Logan Gilbert.

Through two starts, Gilbert is posting the highest hits per nine innings rate of his career, and his strikeouts per nine are down more than two from last season. His offspeed stuff has been more hittable than last season — batters are hitting over .300 against his split finger, slider, and cutter.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, Mariners.TV

Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI (+105)

Mickey Moniak may not have a steady starting spot, but he leads Colorado in OPS, OPS+, RBIs, and home runs, and has played every day for the past week. He’s spent time at all three outfield spots in the first three games in San Diego and has three hits, two homers, and four RBIs. 

Moniak actually is hitting better on the road (.333/.333/1.000) than at Coors Field (.286/.304/.714) this year. He’s also hitting .429 with .857 OPS in two lifetime games against Padres’ starter Nick Pivetta. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Padres.TV

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There was a lot of talk about running it back this offseason. After a frustratingly brief trip to the Elysian Fields of the playoffs, the fans, writ broadly, wanted change. Few, if any, would’ve wanted a change in Jesús Luzardo, though. His first season in red pinstripes (and blue/black gradient thing; not to fear, City Connect skeptics, the Phillies are scheduled to get a new one next season) was excellent, with the bespectacled baseballer bedeviling batters with his new sweeper. His ERA of 3.92 was solid, and the underlying numbers suggested his performance was better than that. When the Phaithful insisted that there be no running it back, they didn’t mean Luzardo. They would’ve been fine with him keeping his approach the same.

He didn’t, though.

His approach in the still-young 2026 campaign might look like running it back at first. He’s presenting the same pitch mix as last year: sweeper, 4-seamer, changeup, sinker, slider. For the moment, the sweeper has swapped places with the 4-seamer as the most used pitch, but that doesn’t seem to represent a sea change. Certainly nothing like the change Luzardo made at the start of last season, when he introduced said sweeper. Names, though, can be deceiving (as someone who has a surname that sounds like a first name, I know this very well). Just because he’s throwing five pitches with the same names as last season doesn’t mean he’s throwing the same five pitches.

That’s a chart showing the vertical movement of Luzardo’s pitches vs. the average for pitches of the same type, by season. What’s that green line, rising up from the dirt like the first shoots of spring? It’s Luzardo’s changeup. In 2025, it dropped 3.2 inches less than the average cambio. In 2026, it’s dropping 3.2 inches more than other pitches of its type. Year over year, it’s a change of 8.3 inches. That’s a changeup in a changeup, alright.

Why make that change, though? Luzardo’s changeup was a good pitch last season. It induced whiffs 36.2% of the time, placing in the top ten among changeups league-wide for that measure, and just behind Devin Williams’ feared Airbender. Luzardo accrued a run value of 6 with it; only nine hurlers got more value from their changeups. Pitchers may change their approach even when things are going well, in an attempt to keep ahead of batters (Zack Wheeler, in particular, is constantly tinkering and tweaking, even when he’s producing some of the best results in baseball). But it’s worth asking why it was the changeup, in particular, that changed.

Luzardo’s changeup was a good pitch last season, but his 4-seamer wasn’t. It wasn’t a bad pitch, exactly. Just not great, either. His 19.8% whiff rate with it ranked 128th. Batters slugged .421 against it. He accrued a run value of 0 with it. His so-so heater didn’t stop him from producing very good results last season, but it wasn’t a huge boon to his arsenal. The same is true of his sinker, which accrued a run value of -1. Overall, his fastballs just weren’t very good: he ranked in the 35th percentile for fastball run value. If there was some sort of tweak that Luzardo could make to his fastballs to turn them into plus pitches, it would be a major benefit. And while he doesn’t necessarily need a great fastballs to be a great pitcher when he’s got that sweeper, there’s no such thing as gilding the lily with a pitch arsenal: every advantage you can get in the endless arms race between hurler and hitter is worth pursuing.

There doesn’t seem to be too much change in Luzardo’s 4-seamer from last season. The vertical and horizontal movement are just about the same. He’s throwing it a half-tick harder (97 MPH vs. 96.5), but that doesn’t seem too meaningful. The sinker looks a bit different, dropping more and getting more arm-side movement, but the difference is much slighter than the changes in his changeup. He hasn’t really changed his fastballs much. That being said, you can change the results of a pitch without necessarily changing the pitch itself. Pitches do not exist in a vacuum; a change you make to one may impact the rest of your arsenal, too. Or rather, impact the way batters react to it. Luzardo may not have changed his fastballs, but the change to his changeup may be benefitting them anyway.

The whole point of a changeup is to baffle a batter who was expecting the fastball. The more distinct his changeup is from his 4-seamer and sinker, the more batters will be punished for guessing wrong. The slower the changeup is compared to the fastballs, the more the batter’s timing suffers for thinking he was getting the other pitch. The more the changeup moves compared to the fastballs, the more likely it is that the hitter will just flat-out whiff. So changes to the changeup ought to benefit not just that pitch, but the other fastballs as well. This is something that’s easier to understand visually. Fortunately, FanGraphs has introduced a new Paired Pitches tool that presents just that.

Here’s Luzardo’s pitches in 2025, using the sinker as the reference pitch:

And here’s his pitches in 2026:

Luzardo’s changeup was always pretty distinct from the 4-seamer by location, though now it’s even more distinct from it in terms of speed. But the real difference comes in the comparison with the sinker. The location his sinkers end up in is now much different than the location his changeups end up in. Lower, and slightly less to the arm side. In particular, that difference in vertical location ought to induce more whiffs. In 2025, guessing wrong in everyone’s favorite game show of Is It A Sinker or a Changeup meant you were still swinging in roughly the right area. In 2026, guessing wrong means swinging way above or below the pitch, and just missing entirely. Cue Price is Right Sad Horns.

So, is that what we’re seeing with Luzardo’s results this year?

We can get a little bit more precise here: Luzardo almost exclusively deploys the changeup against right-handed hitters (which is what you’d expect; the typical use case for a changeup is against opposite-handed batters). How do those numbers look when we take only righty batters into account?

Firstly, the standard caveat about early-season small sample size applies. We’ll need to see a lot more of these pitches before we can really draw any conclusions about what’s changed. But for the moment, let’s tread through the treacherous territory of saying things about small samples: for batters who really do have to worry about all three pitches, Luzardo’s 4-seamer and changeup are now more of a struggle. The sinker, though, appears to be less of one, at least by Whiff rate. Then again, Whiff rate may not be the right metric to look at for a sinker: the pitch is meant to generate weak contact, rather than misses. So improvement in that pitch would probably be better measured by how batters perform when they do make contact with it. And so far, the sinker has been more of a success this season: year-over-year, Luzardo’s sinker now has a lower hard hit rate, a lower barrel rate, a lower wOBA.

This is all early stuff. But for the moment, it looks like Luzardo may have improved two of his lesser pitches by tweaking one of his better ones.

The Guardians and Braves will tangle on Peacock tonight to see which will be the last MLB team in 2026 to have not lost a series.

Zach has your recap from last night’s dominant win. Hopefully, it’s a sign that Jose Ramirez’s luck has turned.

Matt Seese, Tommy Pecoraro and Zach F. had another Guardians’ prospect podcast release last night.

Guardians Weekly focused on Brayan Rocchio and on Akron with Guardians’ farm director.

AROUND MLB:

The Tigers, Twins and Royals won (Kansas City beating the White Sox).