Justin Verlander is a Detroit Tiger again, hoping to lead his original team to a third trip to the World Series.
Verlander, the 266-game winner who will celebrate his 43rd birthday this month, agreed to a one-year, $13 million contract with the Tigers, the club announced Feb. 10.
That presumably wraps up a Tigers off-season that finished with plenty of fireworks: The three-year, $115 million agreement with left-hander Framber Valdez, Tarik Skubal's historic $32 million arbitration victory and now Verlander.
The presence of Skubal, set to become a free agent this season, Valdez, Jack Flaherty and 2025 All-Star Casey Mize ensures the Tigers won't need to lean on Verlander for much more than 150 innings. He's made no secret that he'd like to get to 300 wins, yet playing for an offense-poor club in San Francisco last season, posted a 4-11 record with a 3.85 ERA.
He finished particularly strongly, with a 1.96 ERA and 3.72 fielding independent pitching over his last seven starts.
The Tigers would take that. They reached the 2006 World Series in Verlander's rookie year, and again in 2012, when they were swept by the San Francisco Giants. Last year, Detroit blew a 14-game lead and lost the division title to Cleveland, yet advanced to the American League Division Series as a wild card, losing a five-game thriller to Seattle.
Perhaps an old hand can help nudge them over the top.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 02: Steven Kwan #38 of the Cleveland Guardians hits a double during the eighth inning in Game Three of the American League Wildcard Series against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field on October 02, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
The Guardians dropped their 2026 promo schedule! There is a lot of cool stuff here, from the Manzo-lorian bobblehead to the Jose Ramirez Camp Shirt. However, it is noteworthy that there is nothing for Steven Kwan. It’s starting to look more and more like his future will not be in Cleveland, but we will see.
Former Guardian Konnor Pilkington signed a minor league deal with the Tigers.
The Guardians 37th overall pick in 2022, Justin Campbell, looks to finally be healthy and on track to make his pro debut this Spring.
We’re getting closer and closer to Baseball being back. Pitchers and catchers report in Arizona very soon and before we know it, Spring Training will be here.
LAKELAND, Fla. — Justin Verlander is going back to his first big league team, agreeing to a $13 million, one-year contract with the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday.
Verlander, who turns 43 on Feb. 20, is looking to rebound from a frustrating year with San Francisco. The deal for the three-time AL Cy Young Award winner includes $11 million in deferred payments starting in 2030.
Verlander’s 266 victories are tied with Bob Feller and Eppa Rixey for 34th on baseball’s career list, while his 3,553 career strikeouts are eighth and closely trailing Don Sutton with 3,574.
Verlander said he needed a “relentless pursuit of finding something, anything to make it click” in turning his struggles around last year with the Giants. His 2.60 ERA from July 23 through the remainder of the season ranked fourth in the National League with a minimum of 60 innings pitched.
Verlander returned June 18 after being sidelined for a month by a strained right pectoral muscle. The right-hander wants to keep pitching after a disappointing season in which he began 0-8 and was winless in his initial 16 outings before a win at Atlanta on July 23.
He went on to finish 4-11 with a 3.85 ERA and 137 strikeouts over 29 starts spanning 152 innings. He has 266 wins, still far off from joining the 300-win club but something he could approach with a strong, healthy 2026.
“First half, quite difficult. Happy I was able to find some mechanical fixes to kind of get back in the right direction and pitch well in the second half,” Verlander said following his final outing Sept. 27. “I think obviously you’d always rather it go well, but it’s nice to be able to turn it around, especially after a few months it gets really draining and it’s tiresome. You’ve just got to come in every day and have a positive mindset and keep working hard.”
Verlander signed a $15 million, one-year contract with San Francisco last January and had a forgettable home debut for the Giants. The Giants often struggled to provide him with enough run support.
The second-half turnaround mattered to Verlander, who limited foes to a .228 average over his final 13 appearances. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 13 starts.
Los Angeles, CA - January 31: Manager Dave Roberts on stage during Dodgerfest at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026 in Los Angeles, CA. (Ronaldo Bolaños / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Projection systems by their nature tend to be conservative, which is why it’s rare to see such a clear outlier. When it comes to predicting baseball records, the Dodgers are standing out.
Seeing a projection of 105 wins is eye-popping given all the regression that goes into these systems, and it’s not the first time for this era of Dodgers baseball. Last year they were projected for 104 wins, the highest PECOTA projected win total since 2009.
“Baseball projections are supposed to end with most teams bunched up together because that’s just how baseball works: the small talent disparity between most squads and the sport’s inherently random nature come together to create tons of equality,” wrote Mario Delgado Genzor at Baseball Prospectus. “This is not supposed to be possible, for one team to be so clearly head and shoulders above the rest.”
The Dodgers now been projected by PECOTA for triple-digit wins in six of the last seven seasons, but it makes sense given that they have a .629 winning percentage dating back to 2017, a 102-win pace over 162 games, with seasons of 111, 106, 106, 104, and 100 wins during that time. They finished with the best record in MLB in four of those nine years, and were one win shy of the best record two other times.
It’s a little bit funny that the Dodgers won the World Series in each of the last two years without winning 100 games. Granted, their 98 wins were the most in MLB in 2024, but they were downright slumming it to 93 wins last year but had every key player healthy in October.
The Dodgers added premium free agents Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz to shore up their biggest weaknesses, and boast enviable pitching depth that might be their best to date. Their ultimate goal obviously is to win another World Series, but they’ll have to win a lot of games in the regular season to get there.
Today’s question is how many games will the Dodgers win in the 2026 regular season? Let us know in the comments below.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns announced that shortstop Francisco Lindorwill be evaluated on Wednesday for a stress reaction in his left hamate bone.
Per Stearns, Lindor reported soreness in his left hand/wrist area over the last couple of days, and will see a specialist on Wednesday to determine if surgery is necessary.
If Lindor does require surgery, it would likely include a six-week recovery time, including a ramp-up period, which means he could still be back by Opening Day.
"Even if it does require a surgery, we would remain optimistic that Francisco would be back for Opening Day," Stearns said.
According to Stearns, Lindor has had soreness in the hamate area on and off for “a couple of years.”
“He’s usually able to grind through it, and he’s done it," Stearns said. "I don’t know when he first felt it, but I think it just persisted to the point where he felt like he should say something about it. Once we examined it a little bit more yesterday, our medical staff determined that he should see a specialist."
This isn't the first bit of injury news for Lindor this offseason. Following the 2025 season, Lindor had a procedure on his right (throwing) elbow that was described as a "minor cleanup." As a result, Lindor is not competing with team Puerto Rico in this year's World Baseball Classic.
Lindor is coming off his first All-Star season as a Met, as he slashed .267/.346/.466 with 31 home runs, 86 RBI and 117 runs scored.
Stearns said multiple times that the Mets are optimistic and even "confident" that if Lindor undergoes surgery, he'll be back by Opening Day. When pressed on other internal options at shortstop if Lindor isn't back by March 26, Stearns said the club has a number of players with shortstop experience in camp, including Ronny Mauricio and Vidal Brujan.
However, it sounds as if the club wants to keep the recently acquired Bo Bichette at third base, rather than move him around the infield.
Mets star Juan Soto is moving from right field to left field this season, president of baseball operationsDavid Stearnsannounced on Tuesday.
"Over the last month or so, as (Carlos Mendoza) and Juan were talking about the season, Juan was working out in left field because he's gonna play left field for the DR in the WBC," Stearns explained. "As they had their conversations, he felt really comfortable there. It made sense for us from a roster perspective. So we're gonna go forward with it, and everyone is on board with it.
"Not something we had really contemplated coming into the offseason, but as we've had conversations over the last month it made sense for all involved."
Speaking later in the afternoon, Mendoza said that he and Soto had many conversations in the offseason, including Mendoza visiting the outfielder in the Dominican Republic, and it was probably around late December when Mendoza and Soto first seriously entertained the idea of Soto making a position change.
Talks started with Mendoza asking about where Soto would play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. When Soto explained that he was preparing to play left, with Fernando Tatis Jr. playing right, Mendoza asked about Soto making the change for the Mets.
"I asked how he would feel if he played left field for us, and he was like 'I’m willing to do whatever. If you want me to pitch, Mendy, I’ll pitch,' kind of with that smile," Mendoza explained. "I said ‘Seriously speaking here, is that something that you would consider if it makes sense for both?' and he was like 'Absolutely.' He reinforced it and said 'I’m comfortable in right, I’m comfortable in left, whatever the team needs.'"
Soto has played mostly right field over the last few seasons, including in 2025, when he started all 157 games there.
However, he has started 458 big league games in left field, including six in 2024 and 154 in 2023 -- when every one of his starts in the field for the Padres came in left.
"I think it's just where he is comfortable," Stearns noted. "He's done it in the past. He feels good over there. We've talked about it a lot, we've got a lot of athletic outfielders -- both at the major league level and nearing the major league level. And so having right field available to them isn't a bad outcome.
"We were also comfortable with Juan in right field and having left field available to them. As we were talking with Juan, it frankly didn't make a lot of sense to bounce him back and forth from corner to corner during spring training. He's comfortable in left, it fits with our roster, so we'll go forward with it."
While Soto has a strong arm that he utilizes well, he was near the bottom of the league last season when it came to Outs Above Average. The same was the case in 2024 and in 2023 (when he was in left field).
With Soto shifting to left, that means right field will be a competition between Carson Benge and others.
Benge has lots of experience in right field, including 26 games last season. He was primarily a right fielder during his college career with Oklahoma State. He can also play center and left.
Stearns has spoken highly of Benge throughout the offseason, noting that he has a legitimate chance to make the team out of spring training as a starting outfielder.
In addition to Benge, other possibilities for right field include Tyrone Taylor and Brett Baty.
Baty has yet to play right field professionally, but has 29 games of left field experience in the minors (and one game of experience there in the majors).
NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 27: Andrew Miller #48 of the New York Yankees pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during their game at Yankee Stadium on April 27, 2015 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images
At the conclusion of the 2014 season, Brian Cashman certainly knew his team was approaching a pivot point. After missing the postseason for the first time since 2008, the Yankees GM was tasked with replacing a franchise icon — Derek Jeter, whose retirement represented the end of an era. To this end, Cashman swung a three-team trade for Arizona’s Didi Gregorius, a little-known shortstop who the team hoped could fill the captain’s shoes. Much of the narrative around the team that offseason revolved around this crucial decision. But another offseason acquisition would prove nearly as exemplary.
Andrew Miller Signing Date: December 5, 2014 Contract: Four years, $36 million
After a historic run at the University of North Carolina, Andrew Miller was as close to a sure-thing prospect as they come. The Tigers took the 6-foot-7 lefty sixth overall in the 2006 MLB Draft. After he made just three outings at Class-A, Detroit could wait no longer to see their phenom in the midst of a pennant race, calling him up to the bigs for an eight-game stint to end the year, with his debut coming on August 30th at Yankee Stadium.
Perhaps due in part to this meteoric rise, Baseball America ranked Miller as the 10th-best prospect in baseball entering the 2007 season. He struggled in 13 starts that year but, at the age of 22, still appeared destined for success.
That’s when the Tigers made him available as the centerpiece of an all-time blockbuster that would alter the fortunes of two franchises. In the deal that netted them Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, Detroit shipped their former top prospect off to the Marlins. But, after he posted a 5.89 ERA in 220 innings across three seasons, Florida threw in the towel too, pawning Miller off on the Red Sox. When he fared no better in his first season in Boston, the former can’t-miss prospect appeared to be a textbook bust.
That’s when the Red Sox made a decision that would resurrect Miller’s career. As he approached his 27th birthday, Boston converted their failed starter into a full-time reliever. The lanky lefty excelled in his new role, leveraging his arm talent into nearly-doubled strikeout rates from his days in the rotation. After two-and-a-half years as a key cog in Boston’s bullpen, they flipped him once again at the 2014 trade deadline, this time to the Orioles in a trade that brought back Eduardo Rodríguez. He quickly became a Baltimore folk hero of sorts, allowing just three runs in 20 innings as the Orioles took the division before holding opponents to just one hit and no runs in 7.1 playoff innings.
A free agent after this remarkable campaign, the player who’d nearly pitched his way out of baseball was now a hot commodity once again. With the Yankees losing their incumbent closer David Robertson to free agency, they were in the market for a top bullpen arm to pair with Dellin Betances. With Robertson commanding $46 million from the White Sox, Cashman instead made a savvy pivot to a slightly more cost-effective option, signing Miller to a four-year, $36 million contract. He revealed after the fact that his new fireman had an offer on the table elsewhere for $40 million that he eschewed for the chance to pitch in the pinstripes.
In addition to the money differential, the ability to pair Miller with the even-taller Betances — who stood six-foot-eight — may have driven Cashman’s decision. “I was taught the bigger, the better,” Cashman said. “It doesn’t always play out that way, but I like big power pitchers, so I do have a lot of those types, and I’ve always gravitated to those types.”
Cashman initially demurred when asked which of his two bullpen giants would close upon the signing. “I’m not in that mode,” the GM said. “I’m actually in the mode of, well, this was an opportunity too good to pass up, especially without a draft pick attached to it. It protects us and gives us diversification and reinforces our efforts to continue to have a strong bullpen.”
Manager Joe Girardi reinforced this, indicating the team would begin the year alternating between Miller and Betances in the ninth based on matchups. But Miller put this tandem to rest quickly, tearing off a 17.2-inning scoreless streak to begin his Yankees tenure. By the time he allowed his first run, he’d saved 13 games and was firmly entrenched as the team’s closer. He’d finish the season with a 2.04 ERA in 61.2 innings en route to the Mariano Rivera Relief Pitcher of the Year Award, the first Yankee to take home the honor since it was renamed for their franchise’s icon.
The following offseason, the Yankees somewhat surprisingly unseated their newly feted closer, trading for Aroldis Chapman from the Reds and installing the Cuban Missile in the ninth. Miller was even more effective in a setup role, pitching to a 1.39 ERA through July as he earned his first All-Star berth. Along with Chapman and Betances, Miller formed a trio known as “No Runs DMC,” a fearsome late-game combination that struck out 41.8 percent of opponents during their time together.
“I had the best seat in the house for probably the two most electric pitchers in baseball,“ Miller later said humbly of his partnership with Chapman and Betances.
Unfortunately, the team’s fortunes did not follow their bullpen’s. At the Trade Deadline, sitting at .500 and seven games back of the division lead, the Yankees commenced a fire sale that included trades of Miller, Chapman, Carlos Beltrán, and Ivan Nova. The rare rebuild allowed the Yankees to import a bevy of talent, headlined by Gleyber Torres in the Chapman trade.
For Miller, their haul from Cleveland included Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller, and J.P. Feyereisen, a king’s ransom in the context of how well-regarded Frazier and Sheffield were at the time. The talented Frazier would spend a frustrating and controversial five years with New York, while Sheffield ended up getting flipped for James Paxton, who struggled with injuries during his two years in pinstripes but was mostly effective when healthy, including a memorable six-inning, one-run start in Game 5 of the 2019 ALCS to keep the Yankees’ season alive.
For his part, Miller continued his run of dominance, pitching to a 1.48 ERA through his first year-and-a-half in Cleveland. He was a rubber-armed playoff hero during their run to the 2016 AL pennant, winning ALCS MVP honors and recording a 1.40 ERA across 10 games and 19.1 innings, pitching in just about any scenario and not running out of steam until the climactic World Series Game 7 against the Cubs. Back for more playoff action the following October, he was matched up against his old Yankees teammates in a memorable ALDS. The veteran allowed just one run in five innings, but it was an iconic lefty-on-lefty solo homer off the bat of Greg Bird that broke a scoreless tie in the seventh inning of Game 3 to key the Yankees’ series comeback from down 2-0.
After parts of three seasons in Cleveland, Miller pitched for three more years in St. Louis before retiring at the age of 36. In a testament to his determination, the former bust took a circuitous route to finally realizing his vast potential. And, while his time in New York was brief, it ranks among the most dominant runs of relief work in the franchise’s history.
See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.
Kade Strowd. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Inspiration.
The Diamondbacks traded away Blaze Alexander. Many months ago, I saw the possibility that he might outperform Jordan Lawlar. Was it my tendency to root for the underdog? Now, my view is that the two were going to be worlds apart. Therefore, the loss by trading him away was small.
The big question: Will Kade Strowd make an impact? How does he compare to other Diamondback pitchers?
The Daily Question About the Trade.
My grade for the trade was A. The bullpen may be the weakest link in the team. By strengthening the weakest link, Kade Strowd will likely positively impact wins more than Blaze would have.
After deciding five metrics that the Diamondbacks need from the bullpen pitchers, I compared Strowd to Clarke and Loaisiga (minor league contract, but I’m very optimistic he will earn a spot the opening day bullpen). Strowd was better in 4 of the 5 metrics, which increased my grade.
In the trade, the Diamondbacks received two extra players (Wellington Aracena and Jose Mejia), who could make a future impact. These players increased my grade.
Three Recently Acquired Pitchers.
Let’s compare Kade Strowd to Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loaisiga.
A caveat is that Taylor Clarke could have a different role (last season he sometimes closed and sometimes pitched two innings). Therefore, comparing him to Kade Strowd and Jonathan Loaisiga might be like comparing apples to oranges. Let’s do it anyway.
First, what will we compare?
Foundational Requirements. The two requirements are fastball (FB) velocity of at least 94 MPH (graphically correlated with success of Diamondbacks relief pitchers) and xERA of less than 4.82 (last season’s average ERA for Diamondbacks relief pitchers per Baseball Reference). Each of the three pitchers meet the foundational requirements.
Ground Balls to Third Base. With the addition of Nolan Arenado at third base, I would look for pitchers with high ground ball rates, and especially high ground ball rates to third base. Each of the three pitchers has a high rate of ground balls to third base. However, Kade Strowd is a level above the other two pitchers.
On 21 January, when I searched for possible relief pitchers to acquire, only Brad Keller (who had been acquired by the Phillies in December) had a higher percentage of ground balls to third base. On this metric, Kade Strowd is among the best in the Majors.
Hard Hit Percentage per Baseball Savant. In general, pitchers who limit batters’ hard hits will be most successful, especially when their team emphasizes great defense like the Diamondbacks. Kade Strowd is at a stellar level, better than the other two pitchers. Last season, all but 27 qualified batters had a season average better than Kade Strowd’s 31.3 hard hit percentage. On this metric, Kade Strowd is among the best in the Majors.
Worth note is that Diamondback Geraldo Perdomo is an exception to the rule. Despite his 31.9% hard hits, my view is that he is an exceptional batter.
Strikeouts Minus Walks. This metric has higher predictive power (of future pitching performance) than is generally known. That’s why I decided to instead look at (strikeouts minus walks) divided by PAs, instead of walk rate.
Taylor Clarke was at a higher level than the other two pitchers. Strowd’s .105 was very slightly below last season’s Diamondbacks average of .11.
Got-The-Job-Done (GTJD). For years, I’ve applied this metric when writing about relief pitchers. GTJD is defined as the percentage of appearances with allowing an earned run and without allowing an inherited runner to score.
Kade Strowd’s 80% GTJD was outstanding. It was higher than the other two pitchers.
Homers per PA. Kade Strowd’s .010 homers per PA was outstanding. It was much higher than the other two pitchers.
Kade Strowd’s homers per PA may not be sustainable next season. Nevertheless, it will likely be better than average.
The following table shows the comparison of the three pitchers. Circled are two important metrics for Kade Strowd. Data from Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference.
Pitch Selection.
At the top level, Kade Strowd pitches about 40% cutters, Taylor Clarke pitches 40% sliders, and Jonathan Loaisiga pitches mostly sinkers. Nevertheless, each of the pitchers seems to have a wider variety of pitches than the typical reliever. The following tables compare Kade Strowd to Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loaisiga. Data from Baseball Savant.
What did Mike Hazen say?
“Felt like he [Kade Strowd] took a pretty big step forward last year at the very end of the season. We like his stuff and he adds into the bullpen mix that we have — guys that have some flexibility.”— Mike Hazen
“He [Taylor Clarke] was very consistent. He had a really good second half. We feel like he pounds the strike zone. We think he could fit into that longer role, multiple-inning, one-plus role. We feel like there’s versatility there. Obviously, we know the makeup and have a long history with him. Good fit for us.” — Mike Hazen
“I think he’s [Jonathan Loaisiga] got great stuff. We’ve always liked him from afar.” — Mike Hazen
Summary.
The Diamondbacks traded for Kade Strowd. He will make an impact on the bullpen, the weakest link on the team
After deciding five metrics that the Diamondbacks need from the bullpen pitchers, I compared Strowd to Clarke and Loaisiga. Strowd was better in 4 of the 5 metrics, including Got-The-Job-Done, which is important for relief pitchers. His excellent homers per PA was so good that it is likely unsustainable. Furthermore, Strowd was among the best in the league in most ground balls to third base and least hard-hit percentage.
Strowd pitches about 40% cutters, with four additional types of pitches.
Mike Hazen said that at the end of last season, Kade Strowd took a pretty big step forward.
The Kansas City Royals' Alcides Escobar (2) dances his way back to home after running to first base during base running drills at spring training in Surprise, Arizona, Saturday, February 25, 2012. (John Sleezer/Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
We’re trying a new series at Royals Review, a daily mid-day question of the day to hear about your opinions on a fun or pressing question affecting the Royals or baseball in general. Chime in and drop your answers below!
Spring training is here! Pitchers and catchers report today, and will have their first workout tomorrow, with the first full squad workout on Monday. The first spring training game will be on February 20 against the Rangers, as the team tunes up for the season opener on March 27.
Now that spring training is upon us, there are certain storylines Royals fans will be most interested in, such as:
CHICAGO - SEPTEMBER 15: Flags over the scoreboard show the standings in the National League Central Division during a game between the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds on September 15, 2006 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) standings projections are out. Brewers fans won’t like them much.
At BP, Jonathan Judge has described the challenges that projection systems face with teams like the Brewers. Those challenges can be boiled down as such:
Teams with more established players on longer-term deals are easier to project, both in terms of playing time and performance
Small-market teams like the Brewers, because of their lack of large financial commitments, are more likely to rifle through a whole bunch of players during a season, making the ‘playing time’ aspect of the projections even more difficult
To build on that point, teams with good farm systems (like Milwaukee) make this even more difficult because if one player doesn’t click they can just keep trying until they find one who does
The quality of publicly available data in the minor leagues (especially at the A+ and AA levels) is not as good, so projections become more difficult
Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal adds another thought to this discussion:
Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs has also discussed the challenges that the Brewers present when working on wins projections. To him, it essentially boils down to: the Brewers use a whole bunch of players, more than most teams, and pretty much none of them are bad. It’s an unusual template for a team, and while the Brewers aren’t completely lacking in star power, the top end of their individual projections don’t really line up with the best teams in the league. Instead, they make up that gap with depth, and an ability to turn reclamation projects into usable pieces, most notably in the bullpen. At last check, ZiPS, the FanGraphs system that Szymborski created, projects the Cubs for 87 wins and the Brewers for 86.
PECOTA also projects the Cubs at the top of the NL Central, which by itself isn’t especially egregious. But they project the Cubs for 10 more wins than the Brewers, who they have losing 16-17 more games than they lost in 2025. Here are the NL Central’s projected records, rounding to the nearest win:
Chicago Cubs, 91-71
Milwaukee Brewers, 81-81 (technically at 80.5-81.5, below .500)
Pittsburgh Pirates, 80-82
Cincinnati Reds, 79-83
St. Louis Cardinals, 66-96
Milwaukee has just a 10.5% chance to win the division according to these projections, with a 31.2% chance of making the postseason.
I’m not trying to disparage PECOTA or the good work they do at Baseball Prospectus, but… if you did a straw poll around the league and asked how many people thought the Brewers would finish below .500, how many do you think would say so?
As part of the projections, PECOTA also releases projections for runs scored and runs allowed, and this is where you can sort of see why they’re so down on the Brewers. They have Milwaukee projected for just 693 runs, which is better than only the Rockies, Cardinals, Nationals, and Marlins in the National League — four teams that are barely trying. Yes, PECOTA thinks the Pirates will score more runs than the Brewers this season. Last season, the Brewers scored 806 runs, behind only the Dodgers in the National League. The Pirates, who are projected for 713 runs, scored 583, worst in the majors.
PECOTA also projects the Brewers for 705 runs allowed, which isn’t bad but that’s more projected runs allowed than the Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves in the NL. Last season, Milwaukee allowed just 634 runs, bested only by the Padres in the senior circuit.
It’s difficult to see exactly why PECOTA predicts such massive swings in Milwaukee’s runs scored and runs allowed totals. It’s unclear if the loss of Caleb Durbin is included in these projections, but he and Isaac Collins are the only significant losses on the offensive side. As for pitchers, yes, the loss of Freddy Peralta is significant, but the additions of Brandon Sproat, Kyle Harrison, and Ángel Zerpa have to count for something.
Brewers fans will be excused if they take the PECOTA projections with a massive grain of salt. Last year, the system projected the Brewers for an 80-82 record, a total that they outperformed by 17 wins. PECOTA also projected the Brewers for 79 wins in 2024, and they ended up winning 93 games. Hopefully, 2026 will be more of the same.
The Yankees won 94 games a season ago, but their quest for a 28th World Series championship came up short, losing to the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Division Series.
But with Aaron Judge still one of the best hitters on the planet, Cody Bellinger back in the mix, and ace Gerrit Cole eventually returning from Tommy John surgery, what lies in store for Aaron Boone’s group in 2026?
Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not “pick” a team to “win” any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range.
This time around, the Yankees are projected to win 88.5 games and lose 73.5 games, which would put them atop the AL East standings, just ahead of the Blue Jays (88. 3 wins). Both the Yankees and Blue Jays won 94 games last season, with Toronto owning the tie-breaker.
The Yankees would have a 35. 9 percent chance of winning the division, a 74.5 percent chance of making the playoffs, and a 7.4 percent chance of winning the World Series, trailing only the Mariners, Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers. Toronto has the same 7.4 percent chance of winning it all.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Justin Verlander #35 of the San Francisco Giants reacts after the Giants made a great play to end the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Oracle Park on September 12, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Holy freaking cow, folks. JV is coming home. Eight and a half years since the Detroit Tigers traded franchise legend Justin Verlander to the Houston Astros on August 31, 2017, the three-time Cy Young award winner returns to the Tigers on a one-year deal.
We absolutely did not see this coming. First reaction is that Reese Olson or another starter must be bound to miss part of the season. It really did not seem like they had a need for a veteran starter otherwise. Instead, they have inked Verlander to a $13 million deal for 2026 with $11 million of it deferred in payments to begin in 2030, according to Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic Detroit.
Jeff Passan of ESPN also notes in his post on the Verlander signing that the long-time Tigers ace will wear their hat when he’s ultimately inducted into the Hall of Fame. Suddenly there appears to be a concern with franchise legacy from ownership, and we’re here for it. The deal offers the Tigers a lot of flexibility since they won’t be paying much of it for several years to come. It really feels like the club needed starting depth, and decided to lock up Verlander as an all-time Tiger for one more go-around, without putting themselves in too much of a jam if things don’t go well.
Right-hander Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers are in agreement on a one-year contract. Verlander, 43 next week, returns to the team with which he spent his first 13 seasons and whose hat he'll wear in the Hall of Fame.
Verlander will rejoin both A.J. Hinch as well as Framber Valdez, so there’s plenty of familiarity beyond the obvious fact that he’s arguably the greatest pitcher in the franchise’s history.
After a tough first half with the San Francisco Giants in 2025, few teams came calling for his services at the trade deadline. That was a mistake, as he put up a 2.99 ERA and 3.47 FIP in the second half, pitching pretty well despite the strikeout touch remaining lighter than in his prime. Even so, the last of the true workhorse aces averaged 93.9 mph with his fourseamer last year, and still has a plus slider and good curveball to work with, while learning to mix in a changeup a bit more to lefties as a change of pace. He also developed a slurve last year that became a pretty good pitch for him and was taking over from the more standard 12-6 curve down the stretch.
Verlander was famously drafted second overall in the 2004 amateur draft after the San Diego Padres drafted Matt Bush. He would go on to win the 2006 Rookie of the Year award, before sweeping the Cy and the American League MVP award in 2011. Since leaving for Houston, Verlander won a World Series in 2017, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020, and then returned from surgery at age 39 to win his third AL Cy Young in 2022, along with his second World Series ring with the Astros.
He’s lived a whole career for most players since leaving Detroit. While we can argue about who is the best pitcher of the last two decades, Verlander stands above the rest as the most valuable, with 3553 strikeouts to his credit and a career 266-158 record over 20 full seasons as a major leaguer. Now, 10 days shy of his 43rd birthday, he’ll return to the place it all began.
In a major blow to the Atlanta Braves' starting rotation, right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach will open the regular season on the 60-day injured list as he deals with inflammation in his pitching elbow, MLB.com reported Tuesday, Feb. 10.
Schwellenbach, 25, was a breakout candidate last season after posting a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts as a rookie in 2024. However, he was sidelined in late June with a season-ending elbow fracture. He was expected to be ready for spring training, but the inflammation he experienced over the offseason derailed those plans.
With his placement on the 60-day IL, Schwellenbach will miss at least the first two months of the regular season. The move will create an open spot on the 40-man roster for backup catcher Jonah Heim, who agreed to a one-year deal earlier in the day.
With Schwellenbach out of action to start the season, and several other starters returning from injuries of their own, the Braves rotation seems a bit murky as they open camp in North Port, Florida.
The Mets are adding more depth to their bullpen, acquiring left-handed reliever Bryan Hudson from the White Sox in exchange for cash considerations.
In a corresponding move, Reed Garrett -- who is recovering from Tommy John surgery -- has been placed on the 60-day IL.
Hudson, 28, had a 4.80 ERA (5.34 FIP) and 1.86 WHIP in 15.0 innings last season for the Brewers and White Sox. Chicago had designated him for assignment last week.
He was tremendous in 2024 for Milwaukee, during what was his first full big league season.
In 62.1 innings over 43 games, Hudson had a 1.73 ERA (3.60 FIP) and 0.72 WHIP while striking out 62.
Standing at 6'8", Hudson gets elite extension from a low-angle delivery (he was in the 99th percentile last season). He featured mainly a four-seam fastball and sweeper in 2025. In 2024, he also relied heavily on a cutter, which he threw 24 percent of the time (Hudson threw the cutter just three percent of the time last season).
Hudson is out of minor league options, which means the Mets cannot send him to the minors without exposing him to waivers.
Brooks Raley is the only left-hander viewed as a lock to make the Opening Day bullpen.
A.J. Minter is already throwing and should factor in by the end of April, but is not expected to break camp with the team as he recovers from season-ending lat surgery.
Contenders for the final three or four spots in the bullpen could include Tobias Myers (who is currently stretching out as a starter), Huascar Brazoban, and Adbert Alzolay. The slider-heavyAlzolay expected to be fully healthy after missing last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Meanwhile, Craig Kimbrel is a wild card of sorts after signing a minor league deal.
Other options include hard-throwing prospects Dylan Ross and Ryan Lambert, as well as Jonathan Pintaro, Alex Carrillo, and Joey Gerber.
TORONTO, CANADA - SEPTEMBER 13: Tomoyuki Sugano #19 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches in the first inning of their MLB game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on September 13, 2025 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After signing Michael Lorenzen to their rotation earlier this off-season, the Colorado Rockies indicated that they were still in the market for another veteran starting pitcher. It would appear that starting pitcher has been selected, as the Rockies have reportedly signed Japanese right-handed pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year deal worth $5.1 million for the 2026 season.
Sugano, 36, hails from the coastal prefecture of Kanagawa in Japan and put together a strong 12-year body of work with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Tokyo Yomiuri Giants.
He is the first Japanese player to play for the Rockies organization since Kazuo Matsui in 2007, and the first Japanese pitcher since Mac Suzuki in 2001.
Working both as a starter and reliever, Sugano has a career 2.43 ERA across 276 NPB appearances. He attempted to enter the posting system following the 2020 season, but went unsigned.
The Baltimore Orioles signed Sugano to a one-year, $13 million deal for the 2025 season. During his “rookie” campaign, he worked exclusively as a starter and posted a 4.64 ERA over 30 starts and 157 innings while tallying 106 strikeouts. It is also worth noting that Sugano led the American League in home runs given up at 33—the third-most in Major League Baseball—but also had one of the better walk rates in the league.
Sugano’s primary pitch is a split finger that averaged 87.3 MPH last season, backed up with a sweeping slider. He throws two fastballs, a four-seam and a “shuuto” that is sometimes identified as a sinker. Both pitches averaged close to 93 MPH last season. Sugano also throws a curveball, a cutter, and has worked with a forkball during his time in NPB.
In a corresponding roster move, the Rockies have placed Kris Bryant (degenerative disc disease) on the 60-day injured list.
Sugano will report to the Rockies’ spring training facility in Scottsdale with the rest of the team’s pitchers and catchers on Thursday. He is also expected to pitch for Samurai Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic.
