Category: Baseball

It was a disappointing end to what looked like a solid start from San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King. The right-hander cruised through the first three innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers allowing just one run over that time. Manny Machado homered in the bottom of the fourth inning to tie the game at 1-1, but when King returned to the mound in the top of the fifth inning, he could not locate his pitches and the result was a three-run inning that resulted in a 4-2 loss for San Diego.

King opened the top of the fifth with a walk to the No. 9 batter Alex Freeland. He then caught a lineout on a bunt attempt from Chuckie Robinson but followed that with another walk to Shohei Ohtani. King hit Andy Pages for the second time in the game to load the bases and then walked Freddy Freeman on a nine-pitch at-bat. The ninth pitch was close to the bottom of the zone on the inside corner but neither King nor Rodolfo Duran challenged the call, and Los Angeles took a 2-1 lead. What proved to be the game-winning hit and the end of the day for King came on a two-run single by Mookie Betts which pushed the lead to 4-1. Yuki Matsui relieved King and got Max Muncy to pop out and Tommy Edman to ground out to end the inning.

The Padres cut the deficit in half in the bottom of the sixth inning. Jackson Merrill singled to start the inning, and Machado hit a deep flyball to center that looked like a two-run home run off the bat. It was caught on the warning track by Pages. Gavin Sheets struck out for the second out of the inning, but not before Merrill stole second base. Xander Bogaerts singled following a pitching change and drove in Merrill to make the score, 4-2. Miguel Andujar was then hit by a pitch to put runners at first and second, but Sung-Mun Song struck out to end the inning and strand the runners.

San Diego threatened in the bottom of the eighth inning after Machado doubled to open the frame. Ty France, who pinch-hit for Sheets, was then hit by a pitch to put runners at first and second with no outs. Bogaerts struck out and Andujar grounded into a double play to end the threat and the inning. The Padres brought the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the ninth inning after Freddy Fermin worked a one-out walk, but Fernando Tatis Jr. grounded into a double play on the first pitch of the at-bat to end the inning and the game.

King finished his day after 4.1 innings, allowing four runs on three hits with four walks and five strikeouts. Matsui, Jason Adam and Wandy Peralta pitched 4.2 scoreless innings to give San Diego a chance to come back in the game, but the Padres failed to take advantage of scoring opportunities and finished a disappointing 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position.

San Diego is on the road today to open a series with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field at 5:05 p.m.

Padres News:

• The Padres lost the series to the Dodgers but won the homestand 4-2 thanks to a sweep of the Atlanta Braves. The San Diego offense seems to be trending up according to Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball who recaps the week that was.

• Bradgley Rodriguez was being used a lot out of the bullpen for the Padres and when they saw an opportunity to get him some time off to keep him healthy for the rest of the season, they took it. After some rest he returned to the mound for Double-A San Antonio.

• The Padres elite bullpen is drawing comparisons to one of the dominant bullpens of the past.

• It is never fun to lose to a division rival, but Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune believes the Padres have more at stake against Wild Card contenders like their next opponent.

• San Diego and Los Angeles are so close geographically that it’s easy for opposing fans to travel back and forth for the games. Dodgers fans made the trip to Petco Park this weekend and it did not go unnoticed by the Padres players.

• The Padres re-signed Nick Solak to a minor league deal after he opted out of his contract earlier this week.

Baseball News:

• The Boston Red Sox walked off the New York Yankees to complete a four-game sweep.

• Junior Caminero hit his seventh home run in six games and led the Tampa Bay Rays to a sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Kyle Schwarber hit a seventh inning home run to lead the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets.

• The Chicago Cubs held on for a 4-3, 10-inning win over the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Robbie Ray pitched eight innings to lead the San Francisco Giants past the Atlanta Braves, 3-2.

• Former Padre Tommy Pham signed a minor league deal with the Phillies.

We didn’t know it at the time, but when the calendar turned to July two years ago, that was the end of the good run for the Orioles. They had a losing record that month, the next, and in all finished the second half of the 2024 season with a .500 record, followed by a swift postseason exit. As the 2026 disappointment heads towards July, we’re nearly at two full years of this team failing to live up to expectations.

In this week’s episode of the podcast, I’m thinking about just how few of the current Orioles were actually on the roster when the team was last good. There has been a whole lot of roster turnover since this day two years ago. The core players who’ve carried over aren’t collectively playing like a core of stars, many of the later-arriving players have had bumpy introductions to the majors, and a lot of Mike Elias’s moves to supplement the roster have not paid the dividends I think he believed that they would.

What are they supposed to do about it? I don’t know and I don’t think they do either. Also in this episode, a Camden Chat reader asked who the Orioles would even have to trade to get a possible real, impact player if they did end up as trade deadline buyers. The question was asked before the team went 2-4 over the last week, so I did my best to answer it. I think they might have a shot at someone worthwhile if they really want to go that route.

Check out this week’s episode here:

If the above player isn’t displaying, view this article in Incognito Mode or check it out on the show’s page.

This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.

How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of a future episode of the podcast.

Both in the big leagues and on the farm, the Nationals have more hitting talent than pitching. However, that does not mean there are no interesting arms in the system. Today, I wanted to highlight one of the most intriguing arms on the farm in Yoel Tejeda. The 6 ‘8 righty has developed from an ultra raw 15th round pick to a real riser.

Coming out of high school in 2022, Tejeda was a highly regarded two-way prospect. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 217th prospect in that draft, but he decided to follow through on his commitment to the University of Florida. Tejeda spent one year at Florida and one at Florida State, and struggled at both spots. However, his unique frame and pedigree convinced the Nats to take a flier on him in the 14th round of the 2024 draft.

That decision by the old regime has proven to be a wise one. Right now, MLB Pipeline lists Tejeda as the 14th best prospect in the Nats system. Last season, the big righty spent most of the season in Low-A, where he made huge improvements to his strike-throwing. In college, he walked more hitters than he struck out, but last season, he had a 21.8% K rate and a 7.4% walk rate.

 He made some mechanical tweaks that helped his strike-throwing, but saw his velocity more in the low-90’s than the mid-90’s. It was a worthwhile tradeoff, but the hope was that Tejeda would get some of that old velocity back while keeping his command gains. Entering this season, he had some real fans, with some even wondering if he could sneak on to top 100 lists at some point.

I’d like to know who listed Yoel Tejada Jr as their pick to click. He’s a deeper cut than most other names on that list.

Tejada Jr is part of a trio of Nats pitching prospects I’m high on, Jose Feliz and Jackson Kent being the other two.

I wrote this about him in January: https://t.co/bHitAv2q9ypic.twitter.com/0f1v23dZl3

— George (@georgerlewis) February 20, 2026

This spring we did see Tejeda throwing harder. He was sitting in the mid-90’s, while flirting with the upper 90’s. However, in the Spring Breakout game, his control looked erratic. Those command issues plagued him at the beginning of the season as well. In April, Tejeda posted a 5.60 ERA with 11 walks in 17.2 innings with High-A Wilmington. 

As the season has gone on though, Tejeda has made big improvements. He has a 1.38 ERA in five June starts, and is averaging over 5 innings per start. Tejeda has 11 walks in 26 innings, which is on the higher side, but it is manageable, especially when he has 33 strikeouts to go with it. His strikeout rate is hovering around 30% this month, while his walk rate is just under 10%. That is big time stuff, and could get the 22 year old promoted to AA soon.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Yoel Tejeda Jr is ticketed for AA within the next few weeks.

In June, he has a 29.7 K%, 9.9 BB%, and 0.9 HR%. Averaged over 5 IP/start with a 1.73 ERA if you’re into that sort of thing.

Velo is up this year. One of my favorite arms in their system. https://t.co/zCbISv1yez

— George (@georgerlewis) June 28, 2026

After doing some digging, it is clear that Tejeda’s stuff has definitely ticked up. Last year, he was sitting in the 92 MPH range. However, this season, he is sitting 94-96 and tops out at 98. Pair that with the massive extension Tejeda gets from being a 6’8 pitcher, and his fastball gets on hitters in a hurry.

To pair with the heater, Tejeda has a sweeper and a shorter slider, as well as a splitter. The breaking balls are his best secondary pitches that he uses to put hitters away. Last season, he had some trouble with left handed hitters, but his splits are much more even in 2026.

This past week might have been the best of Tejeda’s career. He made two starts that covered 10.2 innings, and allowed just one earned run. The massive right hander also struck out 7 in both starts. He is really surging right now, and I think a promotion is on the horizon. Here is a nice interview he did after his start yesterday.

Yoel Tejeda Jr after striking out 14 this series 🎙️ pic.twitter.com/z9j7Lbqr9k

— Leo West (@leowestbomb) June 28, 2026

Quite frankly, the Nats are a little light on starting pitching in the majors and minors right now. It does not help that their two best pitching prospects have been out all season, but they need someone to step up. Tejeda is not going to be in the big leagues until late 2027 at the earliest, but he is a pitcher whose stock is on the rise.

Unique is good when it comes to pitching, and Tejeda’s massive frame creates unique challenges for hitters. After being a disappointment in college, Yoel Tejeda Jr. is finally living up to his high school pedigree with the help of the Nats pitching development program. I can’t wait to see how he does the rest of the season and what is next for the towering right hander.

From the start, the Mets’ 2026 offensive philosophy was designed to be a departure from the recent past, trading power and a wildly streaky nature for more day-to-day dependability built upon high-average hitters with proven track records of producing in the clutch.  

At one point in spring training, David Stearns summed up the new philosophy by saying, “We wanted to have a lineup with more competitive at-bats 1-9. I believe we have that.” 

It turned out the Mets had anything but that, at least through the first half of this season. The newly acquired proven clutch hitters, Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco, either failed or were hurt, while the concept of a deeper, more competitive lineup proved all but laughable, as the bottom half was full of easy outs.  

Throw in the injuries to Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, and the result was worse than even the resentful Pete Alonso fan might have predicted.  

Indeed, the numbers spell out a level of futility that seems almost unfathomable for a team with the second-highest payroll in baseball.  

Consider that, in MLB rankings, the Mets are: 27th in batting average (.231), 28th in slugging (.375), 29th in on-base percentage (.300), 27th in OPS (.678).  

Also, they are dead last in doubles, with 101.  

And with runners in scoring position, the most common measure of clutch hitting, where the changes were supposed to be most impactful, the Mets are 22nd in batting average (.238) and 29th in OPS (.675).  

Ouch, ouch, and ouch.  

“It’s hard to be that bad across the board with some of the high-level talent they have,” one MLB scout told me. “It’s like their lineup was infected by some virus that they couldn’t stop from spreading. At the same time, I thought they created a lot of uncertainty about what they’d be offensively with some of the gambles they took.” 

Yes, particularly in some cases, the offensive failures reflect poorly on the president of baseball operations for what have proven to be bad gambles.  

Most notably, Luis Robert Jr. and Polanco each had an off-putting history of injuries that have reared their ugly heads in their first season in Queens, a development that Stearns admitted recently at a news conference might force the Mets to change the way they evaluate and approach such acquisitions.  

For that matter, the same injury-related red flags applied to the Frankie Montas free-agent signing from the previous winter, perhaps the most head-scratching Stearns’ move of them all. Turned out to be a waste of $34 million over two years. 

But this is about the offense, including the other move that raised eyebrows at the time, the trade of Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien.

Stearns sold it as a move to bolster his offseason theme of run prevention, even if it seemed driven at least as much by his desire to get out from under the five years remaining on Nimmo’s contract, compared to three for Semien.

As such, it had the feel of a small-market move that a Steve Cohen-owned team didn’t need to make when in pursuit of a championship, though it could be argued it was also made partly to open an outfield spot for Carson Benge, one of the few bright spots of the first half.

Even in that case, however, Semien hasn’t played well enough to justify the deal. At the plate, he has pretty much performed as poorly as his two-year decline with the Texas Rangers predicted, with a .613 OPS that is second-worst among all MLB second basemen, while his Gold Glove defense has slipped significantly, at least according to various metrics.

Finally, Stearns bet that homegrown holdovers Mark Vientos, BrettBaty, and Francisco Alvarez would finally grow into dependable offensive players, after a few years marked by ups and downs, and that hasn’t happened either.

All of it made for a disastrous first half. Even when Soto was swinging a hot bat, eventually joined by Benge and finally Bichette in recent weeks, the Mets have been prone to days when nobody hits.

In fact, they have scored two or fewer runs in 32 different games, the most in the National League.

With all that said, there were also important developments that bode well for the future, as rookies Benge and A.J. Ewing emerged as major contributors.

Benge struggled for the first month or so of the season, but then began living up to the Mets’ belief that he can be a star player, as he shortened his swing a bit and learned how to catch up with high-velocity fastballs, hitting .288 since the beginning of May.

Ewing, meanwhile, was a revelation from the moment he was called up on May 12, showing remarkable plate discipline for a rookie and a short, quick stroke that likely makes him an ideal leadoff hitter in the future.

“Those two kids are really good pieces for anybody’s offense,” a second MLB scout said. “It all went wrong for the Mets in the first half, and injuries were a factor, but with their big guys healthy now, especially if they get Polanco back, they could be much better in the second half.”

Whether it’s too late to make any sort of run toward wild-card contention remains to be seen. All we know for sure is the Mets dug a huge hole for themselves, and while a lack of strong starting pitching became their biggest problem over the last several weeks, the anemic offense was at the root of the 7-19 record in April from which they have yet to recover.

GRADE: F

Good morning.

Shawn McFarland writes about what we’ve learned about the hottest team in the American League, the first place Texas Rangers (!?).

Kennedi Landry writes that, with Texas in need of innings, Kumar Rocker produced the best road start of his career on Sunday as the Rangers swept the Toronto Blue Jays.

McFarland writes that the Rangers are playing their best baseball during a difficult stretch with the hopes for consistency to follow.

MLB dot com’s Brent Maguire notes that Tyler Alexander can make history tonight as the first player to ever make a start immediately after saving the previous two games.

McFarland writes that Evan Carter is back and hoping to show that he’s more than just an excellent center fielder.

Mike Axisa’s latest mock MLB draft has the Rangers selecting Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron. Now the question becomes, how will this impact LeBron’s legacy?

McFarland writes that the Rangers got the sweep but not before Brandon Nimmo ran face first into the outfield wall on Sunday’s final out, requiring him to be evaluated today.

Evan Grant writes about ex-Ranger catcher Robinson Chirinos offering aid after being tragically impacted by the devastating Venezuelan earthquakes.

And, at The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen writes that baseball and the World Cup are having a summer fling.

Have a nice day!

In yesterday’s game, the Phillies had taken the lead thanks to Kyle Schwarber’s 30th home run of the season. The team had the lead and needed a fresh reliever, bringing in Jose Alvarado. His first pitch was 96 miles per hour….and went straight to the backstop. He ended up having the typical Alvarado appearance: striking out the first two hitters, hitting the next one, taking a bunt single and throwing it into right field to put runners in scoring position, then getting the third out on weak contact.

At some point, the Phillies will need Alvarado to settle into something a little more consistent. He had started to do so last season, but then, well, you know what happened there. It threw his then consistency into question as to whether it was artificial or not, making this season feel a bit more of the “same old, same old” when he enters a game. The question today is: do you have any trust in him when he enters a game any longer? Personally, if a left handed reliever is needed, I’d just as soon see Kyle Backhus on the mound than Alvarado, but the latter’s velocity with his stuff does help mitigate whatever platoon advantage a right handed batter might have.

It also throws into the spotlight the need this team has for another left handed reliever, but that’s a separate question for another day.

The optimism that surrounded the Orioles a few years ago was the result of a well-stocked farm system that had already begun producing big league talent. Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson debuted in 2022 on an Orioles team that over-performed expectations. The 2023 campaign brought the debut of Jordan Westburg, a Cy Young-calber season from Kyle Bradish, and 101 wins for the Orioles. The upward trajectory of the franchise was clear. But something has been off since the second half of 2024, and that includes a stunting of the team’s homegrown players.

These struggles are not specific to any one player. Rutschman was bad at the plate for a stretch that lasted an entire season and then some. Henderson has been a below-average hitter throughout 2026. Jackson Holliday has had flashes, though is yet to look like the former top overall prospect that he was. Colton Cowser may be the streakiest player in baseball with the deepest troughs and electric peaks. But there may be no player that has fans more divided than Coby Mayo.

Unlike many of his highly-regarded peers that came up through the Orioles system, Mayo was not an especially high draft pick. The O’s plucked him out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida with their fourth-round selection in 2020, though he did get a signing bonus more aligned with that of a second-round pick. There were warts on his profile that had many scouts worried about his unconventional swing and lack of an obvious defensive position, plus a belief that he was destined for college. The Orioles were able to talk him out of that committment.

Mayo mashed in the minors, including a .973 OPS across Double-A and Triple-A in 2023. That success catapulted him up the prospecting ranking charts. Heading into the 2024 season he was considered a top 30 prospect by each of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB Pipeline. It seemed as though the Orioles had their next star on deck.

Unfortunately, it hasn’t turned out that way. Mayo debuted in Baltimore at the tail end of the 2024 season, but struggled mightily. Over 17 games he hit .098/.196/.098. He returned in 2025, this time often as a first baseman. There was progress. Mayo hit .217/.299/.388 with 11 home runs overall and really seemed to be turning a corner late in the season when he had a .941 OPS in September.

Whatever was working for Mayo at the end of 2025 hasn’t really carried into ’26. He has been on the big league squad all year, mostly at third base in place of an injured Westburg. But he hasn’t exactly taken the position as his own. On the year, Mayo has an underwhelming .190/.260/.376 batting line with 10 home runs. That unevenness at the plate has often driven manager Craig Albernaz to rotate other members of the roster onto the hot corner.

Defense has also been an issue for Mayo this year. No matter which stat you look at, glovework is not Mayo’s specialty. He has been worth -4 outs above average overall, according to Baseball Savant, which is near the bottom of the league. FanGraphs lists Mayo has worth -8 defensive runs saved. But he wasn’t exactly set up to succeed in that regard.

It seemed like Mayo had almost entirely made the transition to being a first baseman in 2025. He played 605.1 major league defensive innings last year; 586.1 of them were played at first base. Then, the Orioles went and signed Pete Alonso in the offseason and held onto Mayo. Overnight, he was back to being a third baseman, a position that had already struggled with and where most scouts have long said he didn’t fit.

You can understand the Orioles perspective on this. They wanted to upgrade the lineup and inject power. Positional fit was secondary, and it’s not as if Mayo had done enough to become a player worth carving out an everyday spot for. The decision to sign Alonso is one that the Orioles front office can be proud of. He is one of the few members of the lineup that has continually carried his own weight. It’s up to Mayo to perform and prove himself. That hasn’t happened, at least not on an everyday basis.

An area where Mayo has shown quite well is facing left-handed pitching. Among players with at least 60 plate appearances against southpaws this year, Mayo’s 196 wRC+ ranks third in MLB, and he is tied for sixth in home runs (seven). When the Orioles do face a lefty, Albernaz is often pushing Mayo higher up in the order, and it usually works out.

The ability to mash left-handed pitching to that level is enough to keep Mayo in the big leagues for a long time. But the glove is not going to work at third base in any capacity, perhaps beyond the occasional fill in. Maybe the Orioles can keep working with him on positioning and footwork, but there was a reason they moved him off the position last year, and the only reason he is back is because Westburg is hurt and there are seemingly no suitable replacements.

A move to right field, as many prospects folks have long speculated, probably does make the most sense. And it could fit for the future Orioles too. The team seems likely to have some outfield innings up for grabs going int0 2027. Taylor Ward and Leody Taveras will be free agents. Tyler O’Neill, who is signed through next season, is on pace to have himself and his .552 OPS this year released early. Heston Kjerstad probably needs to have something click this year, or move on to another organization. Mayo could fit as a platoon bat in right with the left-handed hitting Dylan Beavers while still mixing in the occasional game on the infield or DH, or being deployed in pinch hit spots late in games.

A change like that is unlikely to happen in-season unless the Orioles fall completely out of contention. At that point, they may as well try something. The idea that Mayo is an attractive trade chip to land the Orioles some sort of big league contributor is probably over. He does have plenty of team control since he won’t hit free agency until after the 2031 season, and many organizations would be open to getting his talent through their doors. But he has also seen his many flaws exposed on the big league stage. Potential trade partners will understand that risk and any sort of return is likely to be underwhelming.

Nothing caps off misery even better than immediately wheeling your approach around to something completely different to try to win a series, only to get destroyed by bloop hits, swinging bunts, and your own defensive miscues. I won’t dwell on it.

This is not a great week for me, so I’ll probably do stuff like this for the weekdays. I have a big thing about what specifically killed the team’s offense in June and it’s somewhat complicated, but it’ll take me a bit to get that into useful shape because the biweekly recap will need to happen after tomorrow, too.

Do you think the Braves are tired of it all, too?

Meet the Mets

The Mets lost two of three to Philadelphia over the weekend, but have no fear, things will surely get better when they head to Toronto and Atlanta this week.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post

On Sunday morning, Clay Holmes was throwing off of flat ground at Citi Field, which is nice if nothing else.

In less active news, for Francisco Lindor, Sunday was a day off all around.

With the last bit of injury recovery news, Jorge Polanco feels stronger than before on this rehab assignment and is confident, for now, that he should be able to return to the big league squad.

Kodai Senga looked better than usual coming out of the bullpen, but looking solid for one afternoon won’t guarantee him his old spot in the rotation.

Knicks’ tipping hero OG Anunoby visited Citi Field and threw out the first pitch to childhood hero Jose Reyes and he didn’t bounce it.

On Twitter, Steve Cohen said that he will be addressing fans and media “soon” as a failed season moves past its halfway point.

With Andy Green taking the role of Mets manager strictly on an interim basis, former Cubs manager David Ross wouldn’t mind being the permanent holder of the title.

Around the National League East

Luis Garcia Jr. hit a pair of home runs and drove in five of the Nationals’ six runs as they handed Pete Alonso’s Orioles a 6-4 loss.

In the minor leagues since 2015, Cardinals’ Bryan Torres is now living the major league dream, including hitting a go-ahead home run to beat the Marlins, 2-1.

Chris Sale lowered his ERA to an even 2.10 and struck out 10 as the Braves somehow lost once again to the trouble Giants, 3-2.

Kyle Schwarber became the first player in baseball this season to hit 30 home runs and the fastest Phillie in history to reach that mark, too.

Around Major League Baseball

Thank you to Ump Cam technology for once again giving us what appears to be a photo of Jazz Chisholm Jr. angrily looking at you through a Ring doorbell camera.

In an incredibly smart move, the Mariners acquired Buddy Kennedy who, in 2025, played for both teams who would go on to play in the World Series.

Josh Naylor’s return to Cleveland didn’t end very well as Austin Hedges took the time to tell him loudly and in front of cameras that nobody even likes him.

For the third time in four games, the Red Sox held the Yankees hitless for the first half of the game and for the fourth time in four games, they beat the Yankees at Fenway Park.

This weekend, Pete Alonso crossed the threshold of 500 consecutive games played.

The surging Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to get Teoscar Hernandez back off the injured list and into their lineup today.

Having a bad Sunday, the Reds will remain without Eugenio Suarez who was hit by a pitch on his left hand, but still have Elly De La Cruz around despite an ankle sprain.

This Date in Mets History

Happy 38th birthday to Brooks Raley

The Mets open a three-game series against the Blue Jays in Toronto on Monday night at 7:07 on SNY.

---

Mets Notes

• A.J. Ewing is hitting .325/.398/.519 (.917 OPS) with three homers, six doubles, and four stolen bases in 88 plate appearances over his last 23 games dating back to June 3. 
• Juan Soto is leading the National League with a .972 OPS
• Luke Weaver hasn't allowed a run since April 30. In 23.0 innings over 21 appearances since then, he has given up just 10 hits while walking five and striking out 31

---

Today's Lineups

---

Welcome to week 14 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!

1. Milwaukee Brewers (50-31); 4-2 this week; 97.0% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)

The Brewers went 4-2 this week, sweeping the Reds before dropping two of three to the Cubs in Milwaukee over the weekend.

William Contreras slugged a pair of homers as part of a six-hit week for the Brewers, while Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang had seven hits each. Sal Frelick added a four-hit week, and Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, and Gary Sánchez each added a homer.

Brandon Woodruff totaled 11 2/3 scoreless innings over his two starts, striking out 16, though he had no wins to show for it. Brandon Sproat went six scoreless with 10 strikeouts, while Jacob Misiorowski went six innings with one run allowed, and Kyle Harrison went five innings with two runs allowed. Shane Drohan also worked 4 1/3 scoreless innings in his start. Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe both had solid weeks for the bullpen, totaling 8 2/3 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.

Milwaukee plays host to the Reds for the second matchup between the two teams in as many weeks, and they’ll then head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks over the weekend.

2. Chicago Cubs (46-38); 6-1 this week; 66.8% chance to make postseason

The Cubs enjoyed a strong bounce-back week, sweeping the Mets in four games before taking two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee.

Dansby Swanson had a huge week (primarily in New York), with seven hits, including three homers, driving in 15. Seiya Suzuki added a pair of homers, while Michael Busch, Michael Conforto, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Ian Happ added a homer apiece. Nico Hoerner led the team with nine hits, including five doubles.

Matthew Boyd had a scoreless outing in his return to the mound, tossing 4 2/3 innings with four strikeouts. Colin Rea and David Peterson also turned in solid outings, while Tyler Ferguson, Caleb Thielbar, Trent Thornton, Vince Velasquez, Jacob Webb, Jordan Wicks, and Bryse Wilson combined for 19 1/3 scoreless innings in a strong week for the bullpen.

Chicago now returns to Wrigley, where they’ll host the Padres and Cardinals this week.

3. St. Louis Cardinals (43-38); 2-4 this week; 33.3% chance to make postseason

The Cardinals had a bit of a down week, as they lost two of three to both the D-backs and Marlins in St. Louis, with their finale against the Diamondbacks scheduled for Thursday postponed until late July.

José Fermín and Bryan Torres had the Cards’ only homers this week, while Lars Nootbaar and JJ Wetherholt set the pace with six hits apiece in what was a down week overall for St. Louis offensively.

Michael McGreevy continues to impress, as he went six scoreless innings with four strikeouts in his start this week. Kyle Leahy made a pair of solid starts, totaling 11 1/3 innings with one run allowed and eight strikeouts. Riley O’Brien was a perfect 2-for-2 in save chances, and JoJo Romero added 3 1/3 scoreless innings across three appearances.

The Cardinals now head on the road, as they’ll visit the Braves and Cubs this holiday weekend.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (42-42); 3-3 this week; 35.5% chance to make postseason

The Pirates continue to stay afloat with .500 baseball, as they took two of three against the Mariners but dropped two of three against the Reds over the weekend.

Esmerlyn Valdez set the pace offensively for Pittsburgh, as he went 8-for-15 with three homers, two doubles, and five RBIs. Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn added two homers each, with O’Hearn leading the team with 10 hits and nine RBIs. Nick Gonzales added seven hits, while Jake Mangum and Bryan Reynolds had six hits each.

Braxton Ashcraft turned in a quality start, allowing one run over six innings with 10 strikeouts, while Bubba Chandler allowed one run over 5 1/3 innings with four strikeouts. Dennis Santana, Yohan Ramírez, Carmen Mlodzinski, Isaac Mattson, and Brandan Bidois combined for 14 2/3 scoreless innings for the bullpen, striking out 15.

Pittsburgh now heads across the state to face the Phillies for four games this week before they head to D.C. to take on the Nationals over the weekend.

5. Cincinnati Reds (39-43); 2-4 this week; 4.8% chance to make postseason

The Reds were swept at the hands of the Brewers this week, but they bounced back to take two of three in Pittsburgh over the weekend.

Eugenio Suárez, Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer, and Noelvi Marte each homered this week for Cincy, with Stewart also leading the offense with seven hits over 25 at-bats. Tyler Stephenson added five hits in just 11 at-bats (.455 batting average), and Jose Trevino went 4-for-8 in what was a strong week for the Reds’ backstops.

Nick Lodolo had a shortened start as he was hit by a comebacker against the Brewers, but he worked a solid four innings with no runs allowed and six strikeouts before his exit. Brock Burke and Tejay Antone led the bullpen, combining for seven scoreless innings over eight appearances, striking out eight.

Cincinnati ends their road trip in Milwaukee with four games against the Brewers before they return home to host the Orioles this weekend.

Three close games, none with more than eight runs scored total.

That is how last week’s series in Detroit between the Yankees and Tigers went—it is almost as if the Tigers were a better team than their incredibly poor record would indicate, and that the Yankees were not at full strength, given current key absences. Now at home, the Yankees get a second crack at imposing their superiority over one of the worst teams in the American League in a more aggressive manner than narrowly taking two out of three as they previously did. More than anything else though, they’ll be looking to put the memories of this past weekend behind them, as the Yankees haven’t won since beating the Tigers on Wednesday, dropping four in a row to a Red Sox team that entered Thursday with the worst record in the American League. Brutal.

Back on the subject of Detroit however, since my colleague Sam nicely summarized the Tigers’ offense just last week, we can just refresh some facts to give you the skinny:

They’re currently missing two All-Stars from their 2026 club, Javier Báez and old friend Gleyber Torres, who are both on the IL. But rookie shortstop Kevin McGonigle is back on track in June with an .852 OPS following a bumpy second month in the big leagues. Riley Greene and Dillon Dingler are building their own cases for the Midsummer Classic, too. Detroit can absolutely punch a team in the nose, so the Yankees must be on their guard.

Monday: Ryan Weathers vs. Casey Mize (7:05 pm ET)

For a pitcher who recently beat Tarik Skubal, getting the better of Casey Mize might feel like a cakewalk (though he was a 2025 All-Star as well). As much as we’d like to believe that, the reality is not nearly as simple, so Ryan Weathers will look to avoid the usual pitfalls when facing the same lineup in back-to-back performances. The left-hander last pitched against this same Detroit team on Wednesday, covering six innings of two-run ball in a 4-2 win for the Yankees—that game that put an end to a losing streak of four games for the Yankees when Weathers was on the mound.

As effective as he was, Weathers probably got away with one there, given the sheer number of line drives the left-hander allowed: 10 total, more than he had allowed in his previous three starts combined. The Tigers’ quality of contact warranted a better output than the two runs they managed off Weathers, who now looks to accumulate three quality starts in a row for the first time this season;

Since Detroit is momentarily rolling with a six-man rotation, the specific matchups of last week’s series won’t be repeated, but Casey Mize will be facing the Yanks for a second time. In his last start, Mize’s 17 induced whiffs were for naught as a go-ahead two-run shot by Jazz Chisholm Jr. led the Yankees to a 4-3 win. Bittersweet performances have been the norm as few pitchers know the cruel nature of a starter’s record as well as Mize, whose 2-5 campaign is a testament to his offense’s failings, considering the former number one pick has a sub-3.00 ERA.

Tuesday: Cam Schlittler vs. Tarik Skubal (7:05 pm ET)

Pinch me now because I want to know if this is for real or not. The entire baseball world should turn its attention to Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night as the reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young winner will square off against the cross-your-fingers future AL Cy Young winner as Tarik Skubal and Cam Schlittler square off. Whatever individual accomplishments may or may not come, this represents as magnificent a pitching matchup as one could hope for; the only shame is that the Tigers’ disappointing campaign works slightly against the appeal of it.

What the Yankees achieved the last time they faced Skubal was of such rarity that no team had ever accomplished it since his last start of the 2021 season: to hit not one, not two, but three home runs against the talented southpaw. And even then, four hits on six innings with no walks and nine strikeouts tell you just how dominant Skubal is. On a broader look, the home runs allowed to the Yankees weren’t necessarily an isolated incident—Skubal comes into this game having allowed at least one long ball in each of his last four starts (three of which came after his “Skubal scope” elbow procedure), the longest sequence he’s had since starting this run in which he’s won two AL Cy Young awards.

Cam Schlittler reached 100 innings this season in his last start but didn’t have a lot to celebrate beyond that. Four unearned runs scored by the Red Sox in a single inning led to a Yankees loss in the opening game of that best-forgotten four-game set against Boston.

Wednesday: Will Warren vs. Troy Melton (1:35 pm ET)

The only one of the three pitching matchups with no repeat performers from last week’s series, this duel between Will Warren and Troy Melton pits a pair of young arms against each other, both in different stages of truly establishing themselves as important pieces of these rotations. Melton is only about to make his seventh start of the season, but up until this point, the Tigers could not have asked any more from the 25-year-old righty. In fact, Melton has only allowed three hits in his past two starts, totaling 12 innings and a pair of quality starts against the Red Sox and, most recently, the Astros.

Particularly in contrast with Warren, what Melton did against the Red Sox looks even better considering Boston just handed the Yankees’ starter his second straight blowup outing, elevating his ERA to 3.75—a number that would be even higher if not for four of the six runs he allowed against the Reds being unearned. Back to Melton, though, as effective as he has been throughout this short sample, the home runs have still been a bit of a bother, and much like with Skubal, if the Yankees are going to get to the young righty, it is most likely via the long ball. Melton has allowed at least one homer in each of his previous four starts.