2026 Yankees ZiPS projections see another Aaron Judge 40-plus homer season, Max Fried leading rotation

The Yankees’ ZiPS projections for the 2026 season have been released by FanGraphs,

Let’s take a look at the projections…

Offense

Could a third straight AL MVP Award be in the cards for Aaron Judge? FanGraphs projects Judge’s numbers to take a bit of a step backwards from his 53-homer, 215 OPS+ campaign he put together this past year, but they still see a great year for the slugger with 42 home runs, 115 RBI, a 181 OPS+, and a 7.7 WAR. 

For the purposes of this exercise, FanGraphs included free agent Cody Bellinger among the Yankees hitters, and the former NL MVP is projected to have another strong season with a 112 OPS+ to go along with 22 home runs and 90 RBI.

The Yanks are projected to have six 20-plus home-run hitters, including, interestingly enough, top prospect Spencer Jones. It’s yet to be seen if Jones will have a big league role with the Bombers this coming season, but he’s projected to hit 22 home runs in 525 plate appearances. Strikeouts have been an issue for Jones in the minors, and the projection sees him striking out a team-high 200 times in 2026.

Starting Rotation

The biggest question for the rotation revolves around how former Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole will bounce back from last spring’s Tommy John surgery. Cole is projected to make just 19 starts but pitch relatively well with a 3.91 ERA.

Carlos Rodon is in a similar situation after having October elbow surgery to clean up loose bodies and a bone spur, and he’s projected to pitch to a 4.04 ERA over 129.3 innings. 

With those big names having some health issues, the rotation could be led by Max Fried and Cam Schlittler. Fried is projected to lead all Yankees starters with a 3.37 ERA, while Schlittler is projected to rack up 131 strikeouts in 128.7 innings, posing a 4.06 ERA

Bullpen

David Bednar, acquired at last season’s trade deadline, could see a strong first full season in pinstripes, with projections giving him a 3.23 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 61.1 innings.

Another trade deadline add, Camilo Doval, could also be in a for a nice season with a 3.64 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Fernando Cruz, Luke Weaver, and Tim Hill are also projected to be key pieces in Aaron Boone's bullpen.

MLB Winter Meetings Recap: Mets lose Edwin Díaz and Pete Alonso as Kyle Schwarber returns to Phillies

Some of the league's biggest stars made headlines at this year's edition of the MLB Winter Meetings and there were plenty more minor transactions that you may have missed. So, I'm going to recap all the action from the past week right here.

Keep a close eye on theRotoworld Player News page so you don’t miss any of the action and let’s take a trip around the league.

Pete Alonso
Stay up to date with the MLB free agent market this offseason, including player signings, contract details, and team fits as the 2025-26 Hot Stove heats up.

The Mets Tear Down Their Roster

The MLB Winter Meetings were not kind to Mets fans. One day after Edwin Díaz fled Flushing to join the Dodgers, Pete Alonso took a monster five-year, $155 million contract with the Orioles.

Without these two and Brandon Nimmo, who was traded to the Rangers last month, the longest tenured Met is Jeff McNeil – who’s been involved in his fair share of trade rumors too.

After McNeil? The longest tenured Met is Francisco Lindor. At this moment, he and Juan Soto are the only players on this roster with a non-rookie contract that runs past 2028.

Clearly Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns wanted to completely transform their roster after a disappointing season that ended with 83 wins after having the league’s best record in mid-May.

So, what comes next?

Devin Williams was brought in on a three-year deal and is their presumptive closer and is likely due for a bounceback. With little competition, he could easily vault himself back into being a top-five closer this coming season.

There are rumors floating around that the Mets are interested in Robert Suarez though, which could muddy the waters.

Desperate for a new first baseman and power hitter, Willson Contreras is a worthwhile target. After allegedly being unwilling to waive his no-trade clause when the offseason began, he’s since softened on that stance and it’s been reported he’d specifically do so for the Mets. Perhaps he could even spell Francisco Alvarez behind the plate to regain that all-powerful catcher eligibility.

Apart from him and Alonso, the first base market is a bit weak. The wound is still fresh, so the Mets have not been heavily connected to other replacements yet. Mark Vientos is an internal option, albeit more likely a fit at designated hitter.

Before this mass exodus, starting pitching was supposed to be the Mets’ greatest need this winter. The only one they’ve been connected with Michael King. Otherwise, it’s anyone’s guess as to what direction they’ll turn.

Maybe this turnover means they’ll be more willing to give their young players opportunities to play.

Nolan McLean is likely to start on opening day and is enjoying some top-30 starting pitcher helium. Stearns has explicitly stated that Carson Benge has a shot to break camp with the club. Brett Baty has full runway at third base. Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, and Christian Scott will mix into the rotation depth (if they aren’t traded for more proven pieces). Young flamethrowers Ryan Lambert and Dylan Ross could be in the mix for holds if anyone out there needs a deep dynasty relief pitcher spec.

However, these are still Steve Cohen’s Mets. A spending spree that includes Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Cody Bellinger and other marquee free agents is never off the table.

Regardless, their path forward will be fascinating to track.

More Hot Stove Quick Hits

Kyle Schwarber is returning to the Phillies on a five-year, $150 million deal. It’s a surprise he wound up getting less money for the same number of years as Alonso. It’s equally as surprising that the Orioles matched the Phillies’ offer for the left-handed slugger.

Regardless, Schwarber is a good bet to remain an elite power hitter longer than most players who are entering their age-33 season.

Two years ago, he hit below the Mendoza Line and made a serious swing change in response. Schwarber shortened his swing from 7.9 feet in 2023 to 7.5 feet this past year and somehow did so without sacrificing any bat speed.

Of players with the 10 fastest bats last season (minimum 200 swings), Schwarber has the shortest swing.

Screenshot 2025-12-11 at 1.30.25 AM.png

Even if the effects of aging take two ticks off his bat speed over the next few years, it’d be exactly where Alonso’s is today. He is a great bet to continue putting up monster seasons in Philadelphia.

◆ Alonso's presence on the Orioles leaves huge question marks about both Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo's roles with the club.

Mountcastle is less of a pressing concern on the final year of his rookie deal, but Mayo was recently considered one of the best power hitting corner infield prospects in the game, just turned 24, and only has a half season of consistent playing time under his belt.

Could one or both be dangled in a trade for starting pitching? They probably should be at this point unless Baltimore wants to maintain the best fleet of first basemen in the league.

Kyle Finnegan re-upped with the Tigers on a two-year, $19 million contract to presumably share closing duties with Will Vest.

After coming over from the Nationals at the trade deadline last season, Finnegan had a 38.8% strikeout rate in August, didn’t allow an earned run, and converted all four of his save chances.

Then, he suffered a right adductor strain while warming up one game, spent three weeks on the shelf, struggled to close the season, and didn’t have his same strikeout stuff through the playoffs.

Still, it’s fair to bet on some of that strikeout stuff returning. While it was far out of line with his career 23.0% strikeout rate as a National, Finnegan made a big adjustment with the Tigers to throw far more splitters than he had before.

Finnegan pitch% month.png

That pitch had a better than 50% whiff rate last August and gives Finnegan a chance to beat his strikeout projections while being a safe bet for some saves with a great home park to boot.

Shane Bieber reportedly dealt with forearm fatigue toward the end of the season. That makes what seemed like a peculiar decision to exercise his $16 million option feel obvious in hindsight.

Also, it casts light on the Blue Jays jumping the starting pitcher market for a frontline guy in Dylan Cease and a depth piece in Cody Ponce.

Alarm bells are ringing loud and clear with Bieber who just returned from Tommy John surgery this past August and has only put together one season with more than 130 innings since 2019. He’s someone to avoid in early drafts.

Mike Yastrzemski agreed to a two-year, $23 million deal with the Braves Wednesday evening. He could jostle with Jurickson Profar to become

Steven Matz will join the Rays on a two-year, $15 million contract. That tells us that his role could oscillate between the back of the rotation and bullpen.

◆ Braves manager Walt Weiss was non-committal on Reynaldo López being a member of their rotation calling him a “nice fallback option” for their bullpen. He’s found success as starter, but also had a season marred by injuries last year and could wind up in relief if health concerns pop up again. Or, if Atlanta makes a play for a free agent starter or someone like Freddy Peralta on the trade market.

Vaughn Grissom is joining the litany of former top prospects on the Angels. He’s never shown the tools to be a big league regular, but will only be 25 this season. The worst case scenario would be him and Christian Moore taking reps from one another, but there should be enough playing time to go around in Anaheim.

Gregory Soto signed a one-year deal with the Pirates and could siphon off some saves from Dennis Santana.

◆ The Rule 5 Draft was on Wednesday and there are a few players to watch from it.

RJ Petit is a 6-foot, 8-inch, 300 pound behemoth that could work his way into the high leverage mix for the Rockies. Daniel Susac is a catcher with pop that was a first round pick in 2022 and has a chance to take some reps from the offensively challenged Patick Bailey in San Francisco. Peyton Pallette has serious strikeout stuff and joins a Guardians’ club that’s known for developing relievers.

As a reminder, Rule 5 Draft players are required to spend the entire season on the major league team that drafted them or be returned to their original club.

◆ The stove is still hot and there’s going to be a lot of action over the coming weeks. Make sure to keep up theRotoworld Player News page so you don’t miss any of the action plus live stream and video content here all next week!

ICYMI in Mets Land: All the fallout after Pete Alonso's Orioles deal

Here's what happened in Mets Land on Wednesday, in case you missed it...


Kyle Schwarber glad to have five more years to leave his mark on Phillies, fans

Kyle Schwarber glad to have five more years to leave his mark on Phillies, fans originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

ORLANDO – The $150 million no doubt played a big part in keeping Kyle Schwarber with the Philadelphia Phillies. But the community, those who run the organization, his teammates and the Phillies faithful played as much a part in him inking a five-year deal to stay with the two-time defending National League East champions.

Schwarber met with the media via zoom on Tuesday from his home in Ohio, sitting in front of a beautiful stone wall with high-end liquor bottles placed on various shelves. He is back there after making a one-day sprint to Philadelphia to get his physical and tie up some other loose ends before signing his new monster contract. The quick trip was because his wife is expecting the couple’s third child, a daughter.

“Right after the season was over with, I was able to sit down with Dave (Dombrowski, president of baseball operations) and we had a really good conversation,” Schwarber said. “Then right before we went home, (owner) Mr. (John) Middleton was able to come over to our house and we were able to spend a really good amount of time just sitting down and talking about the Phillies and his family and about what’s the future looking like for us here.

“Those were conversations that I just never forgot. You go through a season, you start having different conversations with different teams. I took notes. And once I had everything all said and done I could really sit down and make the decision. John is committed to winning and Dave wants our organization to keep pushing for a World Championship. We want to continue to win the East. What else for a player can you ask for? We have such a great fan base that on a Wednesday get away day there can be 40-some thousand there. Those are things that I don’t take lightly.

“There are others in the league that I wish could experience that. Those are things that are driving factors on a daily basis. Nothing is given, everything is earned in this game. You earn a fan base’s respect, you earn people’s respect in the game. When you get that, it’s awesome. It’s a decision that I’m not going to regret by any means and it’s going to be a great investment for both sides.”

His signing was the obvious first order of business for the Phillies, who seem to be light on power after Schwarber. Following his 56-home run, 132 RBI National League MVP runner-up season, the designated hitter doesn’t want that season to be an outlier.

“Come to four years in Philadelphia and you really feel like you’ve hit your stride and got the identity of who I wanted to be in the big leagues,” Schwarber said. “And there’s still things to improve on. The nature of having experience and that you can come out on the other side of things. I think it’s given me a whole new perspective on baseball. And it’s way more enjoyable. You could be in that slump, and you know what you have to do to get out of it. Being able to look myself in the mirror and undress yourself from top to bottom and realizing that these are things I didn’t do well and just because 2025 was a great statistical season for me it doesn’t mean this offseason I’m going to go out and do the same thing. I have to go from top to bottom and undress everything and be able to find things to get better at and keep evolving, because the game keeps evolving.

“There’s always going to be more information out there on how to get a player out. It’s my job to make sure that I’m the most prepared person to attack it and not be surprised by anything. That’s how I try to continue to play the game and that’s what I’m going to do on a year-to-year basis. I don’t want to be a one-hit wonder. I want to play this game for a long time and I want to continue to be great and help the Phillies win a World Series and multiple World Series throughout my time here.”

While the decision to stay will make sense 150 million times with fans, it was so much more that played into Schwarber’s decision to wear the red, white and blue. It’s the love of the fans. It’s the fact that a piece of paper was sent around the park and signed by thousands begging for his return.

“Resonating with an organization and resonating with a fan base is a huge part of why you do it,” he said. “You want people, you want young kids, you want anyone to be at a game and look up and see them wearing your jersey or look up at their mom and dad and say ‘Hey, I want to be like Kyle.’ Whatever it is, those are things you don’t take lightly, and those moments are awesome. I know the whole constitution thing that went around Citizen’s Bank Park, I’ve got that. I have that in my possession. Those are things that you truly do respect as a fan base.

“You hope at the end of the day as a player that you leave your mark on an organization and a fan base and I’m glad that I’m gonna have five more years to do that here in Philadelphia.”

Dombrowski and company still have plenty of work to do moving forward for the 2026 season and beyond. J.T. Realmuto has now become the top subject for the team. There are holes to fill and young players to groom, which is another place where Schwarber is so valuable.

“We’ve all been in constant communication throughout the offseason, not just J.T.  We all have great relationships with each other,” said Schwarber when asked if he’s communicated with Realmuto. “I think that’s a great thing we’ve had here in Philadelphia, that we’ve all really come together and that we’re all going to have some really good friendships through our days here. I sent him a text. I would not be lying if I said I sent one to J.T. that said trying to see where he’s at.

“At the end of the day I know the process he’s going through, and I want to be respectful of that. You want him to feel like he’s making the best decision for himself and his family. Selfishly we would all like to have J.T. back because we know what he brings to the table and how important he is to not only the clubhouse and the team but what he means to Philadelphia and how he carries himself and how he cares. How he makes sure he’s going to be available to catch as many games as he can. The catching position is such a difficult position and how he’s done it for years, he should be highly sought after and I’m hoping that at the end of the day he’s back in Philadelphia. But I know that there could be a lot of different circumstances that could come in.

“We have some really exciting talent that is going to be coming up, and you want to make them feel welcomed right away. We need them performing to their best abilities. We don’t need them worrying about how does Kyle Schwarber, how does Trea Turner, how does Bryce Harper, whoever, think about what I’m doing right now. No, we’re all here together. We’re all pulling on the same rope. We need everyone pulling just the same. This is a whole collective effort. We’ve made a clubhouse that is welcoming.”

Just like Philadelphia has made it a welcoming place for Schwarber. And that will now continue for five more years.

Mets showing interest in Cardinals' Willson Contreras: reports

The Mets are looking for a right-handed bat in the wake of Pete Alonso departing for Baltimore, and they've reportedly talked to one National League team about potentially doing just that.

According to multiple reports, the Mets and Cardinals have had discussions involving a trade for Willson Contreras. 

The Cardinals are looking to move their veteran pieces like Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan and Contreras, but president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has yet to make a deal. MLB.com's John Denton reports that the Cardinals have fielded several calls already for Donovan and LHP JoJo Romero, with the Mets showing interest in Contreras.

Denton added that Contreras is expected to waive his no-trade clause to play in New York.

Contreras, who is entering his age-34 season, has two guaranteed years left worth $36.5 million, according to Spotrac. There is also a club option for the 2028 season, which is worth $17.5 million. 

The three-time All-Star is coming off his third season in St. Louis, where he slashed .257/.344/.447 with an OPS of .791 to go along with 20 home runs and 80 RBI in 135 games. 

He also offers versatility in the field. Contreras played 120 games at first base with the Cardinals last year, but has been the Cardinals' catcher in past seasons, as recent as starting behind the plate 50 times in 2024. He also has 39 games of experience in the outfield in his career, his last being during the 2021 season, but that's not expected to be a part of any plan involving Contreras. 

Emergency Podcast: Pete Alonso is gone goodbye, leaving Mets for Orioles, now what’s next? | The Mets Pod

On an emergency episode of The Mets Pod presented by Tri-State Cadillac, Connor Rogers and Joe DeMayo break down the facts and emotions surrounding the news that Pete Alonso is no longer with the New York Mets

Connor and Joe look at what happened, why it happened, and what could possibly come next for the Mets as the Polar Bear agrees to a 5-year, $155 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles. 

The guys hope to see a plan come together from David Stearns and Steve Cohen to make the Mets contenders, as right now for the fans, it’s one of the “bad times.”

Be sure to subscribe to The Mets Pod at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Steve Cohen understands Mets fans’ reaction to core shakeup, stresses patience: ‘There is lots of offseason left’

It’s been a rough start to the offseason for Mets fans.

They’ve now seen three of their favorites leave town after last season’s ugly collapse that ended with the club falling short of the playoffs for the second time in three years. 

The first blow came when Brandon Nimmo was dealt to the Rangers. 

Edwin Diaz then decided to depart for the two-time defending champion Dodgers, and just one day later, Pete Alonso left for Baltimore on a big-money five-year pact

As expected, the moves have drawn emotional reactions from fans all over social media. 

Mets owner Steve Cohen is empathetic, but he stressed in a text to Jon Heyman of the NY Post that the winter is just getting started. 

“I totally understand the fans’ reaction,” Cohen wrote. “There is lots of offseason left to put a playoff team on the field.”

Cohen is right, it is early, and there’s plenty of talent remaining in both the trade and free agent markets, but this team has holes to fill over the next few months. 

New York still needs a top-tier starting pitching after injuries and underperformance came back to bite them during their devastating second-half collapse last season. 

Devin Williams, the team's biggest free agent signing so far, adds a legit bullpen arm, but without Diaz, president of baseball operations David Stearns will need to find another reliever or two.

And now with Alonso joining the Orioles, they’ll need someone to reciprocate that production in the middle of this lineup at first base or elsewhere. 

Certainly a tall task for Cohen and co. as they look to make their way back to the postseason. 

Kyle Finnegan and Detroit Tigers reportedly agree to 2-year, $19 million contract

DETROIT — Right-hander Kyle Finnegan and the Detroit Tigers agreed to a $19 million, two-year contract pending a physical, a person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the agreement had not been announced.

A 34-year-old who was an All-Star in 2024 when he had a career-high 38 saves, Finnegan was acquired by the Tigers from Washington on July 31 for minor league pitchers Josh Randall and R.J. Sales. He throws mostly fastballs that averaged 96.3 mph this year and splitters, also mixing in some sliders.

Finnegan was 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and four saves in 16 relief appearances for the Tigers, striking out 23 and walking four in 18 innings. He didn't pitch for the Tigers between Aug. 31 and Sept. 20 because of a right adductor strain.

He was 4-4 with a 3.47 ERA with 24 saves in 56 relief appearances overall this year, striking out 55 and walking 18 in 57 innings. He had a $6 million, one-year contract that included $4 million in deferred money payable through January 2028.

He is 26-30 with a 3.55 ERA with 112 saves over 347 relief appearances in six seasons with the Nationals (2020-25) and Tigers. He struck out 343 and walked 135 in 347 1/3 innings.

Finnegan is part of a bullpen that includes right-handers Will Vest and Brenan Hanifee, and lefties Tyler Holton and Brant Hurter.

MLB finalizes 2-game series in Mexico City between Diamondbacks and Padres in April

ORLANDO, Fla. — Major League Baseball finalized plans for a two-game series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres at Mexico City's Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú on April 25-26.

The series was anticipated when the regular-season schedule was announced in August but was not confirmed until Wednesday. Arizona will be the home team for both games.

This will be the third set of regular-season games in Mexico City after the Padres swept San Francisco in 2023 and Houston swept Colorado in 2024, both in two-game series.

Scheduled games at San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Mexico City in 2020 were canceled because of the coronavirus pandemic and contemplated games for 2025 were scrapped over finances.

Regular-season games were played in Monterrey, Mexico, in 1996 (Padres and New York Mets), 1999 (Padres and Rockies), 2018 (Los Angeles Dodgers and Padres) and 2019 (Cincinnati and St. Louis, and Houston and Los Angeles Angels).

MLB's collective bargaining agreement also called for games in Paris in 2025 and London next year but the France trip was canceled because of a failure to find a promoter and the Britain series because of scheduling issues with West Ham's Olympic Stadium and Fox television. The CBA called for games at San Juan in 2026 but none have been announced.

Plenty of ways for David Stearns to change Mets' offseason narrative, but long road lies ahead

You can trace the trail of bread crumbs back to David Stearns making run-prevention his primary talking point in the aftermath of the Mets’ implosion last season. Actually, farther than that, considering Pete Alonso only played in Queens last season because he was treated like an outcast on the free agent market. 

No, unlike the Edwin Diaz departure a day earlier, there was no mistaking the Mets’ intentions regarding Alonso after he agreed to five-year, $150 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday. 

They didn’t even make an offer. 

Stearns clearly thinks the Mets are better off without his most prolific slugger, and now the burden of proof is on the team’s president of baseball operations to demonstrate why that is the case. 

It’s one thing to break up a core that has underachieved or failed when it mattered most in three of the last four seasons, and Stearns does deserve some credit for having the guts to do that. But it’s quite another to have a plan in place to replace that core and make the team better. 

From the outside looking in it’s hard to see how the Mets won’t miss Alonso’s power and productivity, at least in the short term over the next couple of years, which should be a priority for a team that is supposed to be trying to win a championship in that same window of opportunity. 

And while I thought it was vital that Alonso agreed to DH at least part-time, due to whatever yips caused him to make every throw he made an adventure, let’s be real: He was their best clutch hitter last season on a team that was wildly inconsistent with the bats, especially when it counted most. 

Offering protection for Juan Soto in the lineup was no small matter in itself. Who might that responsibility fall to next season? Right now there’s no obvious choice, and even signing Cody Bellinger wouldn’t necessarily be the answer. 

So how can the Mets be better without Alonso, especially after Scott Boras made it clear weeks ago that Alonso indeed was willing to be that part-time DH? 

That’s the question at the heart of what is currently The David Stearns Winter of Discontent, if you will.  He has to know most Mets fans are convinced he wants to operate with the small-market mentality that was a necessity for him as GM of the Milwaukee Brewers. 

And that can’t be a comfortable feeling, especially for a native New Yorker. So Stearns must be truly convinced he can make the right moves to put a winning team on the field next season, knowing he would have to take the slings and arrows that come with being committed to moving on from players like Alonso, Diaz, and Brandon Nimmo. 

Whether that proves to be the self-confidence of a smart baseball man or the misplaced confidence of a value-driven analyst is context of sorts for what now becomes the most fascinating of offseasons for the Mets. 

Whatever you think of Stearns at the moment, he still has to have a plan, right? Surely he wouldn’t subject himself to such unpopularity without one. He also has Steve Cohen’s billions and a highly-regarded farm system, which means he has the resources to be bold and creative. 

I know, I know, he has done nothing to indicate he’ll act in that matter, but he has also never been in this position while running the Mets, with essentially a blank slate in front of him. 

Is he truly consumed with finding exceptional value in every acquisition, as it seems to this point? Or can he pivot when needed to spending Cohen’s money for the best talent, even if it feels like an overpay?

From Day One, Cohen essentially has talked about making the Mets a Dodgers West of sorts. Is it possible Stearns is actually determined to build something of a Brewers East, winning with a scrappy, pitching-and-defense ballclub?

That philosophy worked in Milwaukee, at least to a point. The Brewers’ lack of success in the postseason for the last several years is more than the crapshoot nature of October: It’s also a reminder that it’s harder to win at that time of year without stars in the lineup and on the mound as well. 

Just last season the Dodgers dominated the Brewers like it was the varsity against the JV. 

All of this is a way of saying Stearns needs to re-discover and embrace his inner New York, if that’s possible. Run-prevention is a nice catch-phrase and there’s no disputing the Mets’ defense hurt them down the stretch last season, but I’d make the case the offensive failures were at least as costly, if not more so, in September, and, most notably, the lack of quality pitching was the biggest issue of all.

With that in mind, I believe this could still be the type of eventful offseason that at least gets Stearns back in the favor of Mets fans.

There are a lot of ways he could go now. Bellinger brings the type of all-around game that Stearns seems to prioritize, with his defense and base-running and solid hitting.

Alex Bregman would provide defense and a productive right-handed bat at third base, and he is hailed for his leadership as well, which may or may not be something Mets’ management feels the need to address. Brett Baty likely could slide over to first base if necessary, having proven to be versatile enough to play well at third and second.

Kyle Tucker could be the thumper the Mets need now, though his desire for a long-term contract seems to be exactly what Stearns wants to avoid.

You know the names on the pitching front as well: Michael King is uber-talented and available on a relatively short-term deal due to his injury history, if indeed Stearns wants no part of longer deals for Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez.

I still don’t think the Detroit Tigers are trading Tarik Skubal, but he has the pieces to go get Freddy Peralta, Joe Ryan, or Eury Perez.

And if he signs Robert Suarez for the back of the bullpen, it’s possible the Mets won’t miss Diaz all that much.

Finally, as one scout told me on Wednesday, “I guarantee you Stearns has two or three guys in mind as trade targets that nobody sees coming yet. I think everybody in baseball is curious to see what he does from here.”

In short, there are still plenty of ways Stearns can change the narrative of this offseason in the coming weeks.

But he has a long way to go to earn the trust of the fans again.

Analysis: Could Dodgers' Edwin Díaz signing portend more big moves later this offseason?

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 14: Edwin Diaz #39 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch during the ninth inning in game two of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Monday, Oct. 14, 2024 in Los Angeles. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
Edwin Díaz delivers a pitch for the New York Mets during the ninth inning in Game 2 of the 2024 NLCS against the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

As the hotel lobby at the Signia by Hilton Orlando filled at MLB’s winter meetings on Tuesday morning, an unexpected prize was falling into the Dodgers’ lap.

Edwin Díaz, the top reliever on this year’s free-agent market, was suddenly slipping away from the incumbent New York Mets, who reportedly made the fan favorite closer only a three-year offer that did little to entice him to re-sign with the team.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, were swooping in late to snatch away the hard-throwing right-hander, submitting a more lucrative three-year bid that would pay Díaz a relief-pitcher-record $23 million per season.

Just like that, the Dodgers had gone from a perfectly content, but unremarkably quiet winter, to one in which they’d once again flexed their financial muscles and stunned the baseball industry.

Read more:Shaikin: Dodgers signing of Edwin Díaz shows they aren't going to worry about a potential salary cap

“There were a lot of scenarios [that could have potentially played out this winter] where we didn't necessarily end up with a top-end reliever,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Tuesday night, while declining to comment on Díaz directly since the transaction wasn’t finalized. “But we just kind of prepared on a bunch of different fronts. And being aggressive, if something lined up, we've known all along [it is something we would do].”

The Díaz signing was an affirmation of the team’s operating procedure on the free-agent market. They always at least target top talent. They always at least stay around the proverbial blackboard, as Friedman calls it, in case a player’s market doesn’t develop as expected. And now, they are armed with the kind of endless resources that can make them a threat to scoop up any rebound.

As they leave Orlando this week and embark on the rest of this offseason, it serves as a reminder:

The Dodgers might not need to make another big move, in the same way they downplayed the need for any big acquisition coming into the winter.

But they’ll certainly be ready to pounce if another opportunity materializes.

"I would say we definitely can,” Friedman hinted when asked if another big move this offseason could be possible. “Whether that makes the most sense within the timing of our roster — there's so many factors that go into it, and any decision you make has a future cost. It’s just weighing that. So, yes, we can. How likely it is, is probably another question."

Start with the top overall available free agent, Kyle Tucker.

The Dodgers are not expected to entertain a long-term contract for the soon-to-be 29-year-old and four-time All-Star. If his bidding war, as projected, results in offers upwards of 8-10 years and $400 million, the club is unlikely to engage; given the glut of long-term contracts already on their books, and the crop of young outfield prospects expected to reach the majors in the next several seasons.

But what if Tucker’s market cools? What if, like Díaz, he is left to consider relatively shorter-term deals with higher annual salaries? Granted, that’s unlikely to happen, considering the wide interest Tucker is reportedly attracting, including from the Toronto Blue Jays and their suddenly big-spending front office. If it does, however, the Dodgers could once again become candidates for a blockbuster, still needing to fill out their outfield as they embark on a quest for a World Series three-peat.

Read more:Dodgers and Edwin Díaz agree to terms in blockbuster move to shore up bullpen

The same dynamic could be in play with other top free agents. The Dodgers have already shown interest in familiar face Cody Bellinger, who could bring both positional versatility and a more refined hitting approach than he had during his first stint with the club. Bo Bichette also presents the kind of balanced offensive profile the Dodgers are believed to seeking, as they try to shore up a lineup that too often was boom-or-bust last year.

Like Tucker, both players are unlikely to fit the Dodgers’ bigger-picture plans if their free agencies develop as expected (with Bellinger pegged for roughly five years and $150 million, and Bichette perhaps eight years and more than $200 million).

But thanks to the team’s flush financial outlook — and the fact that a salary cap could be coming next year, potentially incentivizing extra spending right now — all it could take is a slight cooling in either player’s market to make them more realistic targets for the two-time defending champions.

As long as there isn’t an overburdensome long-term risk, the Dodgers don’t seem afraid of lucrative shorter-term commitments to sustain their newly cemented dynasty.

“We have not only a really talented group of players, but an extremely driven group of players, who want to take care of their legacy and create a dynasty and be part of something really special,” Friedman said. “Because of that mindset, it makes it easier to invest. And do everything we can to help support that and be a part of helping bring that to fruition.”

The Dodgers could alternatively get aggressive on the trade market. Brandon Donovan and Lars Nootbaar of the St. Louis Cardinals are seen internally as fits. Steven Kwan of the Cleveland Guardians would be an even bigger-name addition, albeit is less likely to be dealt this winter.

Then there is the real white whale: Two-time Cy Young Award-winning pitcher Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers.

For now, it’s uncertain at best that Skubal, who will be a free agent after next season and is unlikely to sign a contract extension with the Tigers (or any other team that trades for him) before then, gets moved this winter.

Read more:Dodgers downplay Teoscar Hernández rumors, continue assessing bullpen options

If he does, it figures to come at an extremely steep cost for a starting pitcher with one year remaining of team control.

If there’s any team that has the ammunition to pull it off, however, it’s the Dodgers, with their ample pitching depth and top-ranked farm system. Like with their free-agent pursuits, there is likely to be a limit for how much they’d part with. But if the Tigers seriously consider a trade, it would be no surprise to see the Dodgers be seriously involved.

There are less splashy routes for this offseason to go down, of course. If the Dodgers don’t make another marquee addition, they still feel confident with the roster core they have in place.

Then again, that’s the tone they were striking coming into these Winter Meetings, before swiping away Díaz in the surprise move of the week.

Thus, the baseball world has been put on alert again: The Dodgers won’t be reckless. They want to maintain longer-term flexibility. But if they see value in a top-talent target in the short-term, they won’t be afraid to once again spend big.

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Brian Cashman: Yankees 'not an open blank checkbook,' remain 'opportunistic'

With free agency in full swing this week during the 2025 MLB Winter Meetings, Yankees fans are waiting for Brian Cashman to make a big move.

Although, as the team is potentially looking to cut payroll below $300 million for the 2026 season, Cashman may not be making the same types of moves that people are used to seeing from the club.

"Fans don't really care about those details. They want what they want," Cashman told reporters Wednesday. "Ultimately, what we both want is to have a team that's going to rack up the win totals to push themselves into the postseason and win it all. But it's just the nature of the beast where you get into the frenzy of the winter times. 'Anything at all cost, doesn't matter,' but in reality, it does matter.

"Everything adds up. Everything counts. We're an aggressive franchise, but while being aggressive, we already have some very large commitments, and the more of those you have, the more impact it affects you in other areas. And so everything's tied together. Our ownership has obviously demonstrated year in and year out how massively committed they are. But at the same time, that's not an open blank checkbook either."

The longtime GM went on to discuss the current state of the free agent market, saying it's moving at "glacial speed," but the Yanks are confident in their group and still searching for ways to make a splash.

“We have a strong team," Cashman said. "The job is to make it better and make it stronger. (Saying) it and doing it are two different things. We’re trying to pull that off, and it takes time. There's a lot of time on the board still, and there's a lot of inventory still there, so there's a lot of possibilities in play.”

Cashman added that current talks with free agents have "been tough so far" and any trade proposals haven't made much progress.

“We’re just staying engaged, trying to match up with some things. But it's been tough so far," Cashman added. "Don't like the asks coming our way, and I guess the opposing teams don’t like what I'm trying to pull from them on the trade stuff. We do have some conversations that possibly could lead somewhere.”

Among the "inventory" still out there includes Cody Bellinger, who opted out of his deal with New York to become a free agent this offseason. Cashman said earlier in the week that the Yanks have had dialogue with Bellinger's agent Scott Boras and a reunion with the OF is "still in play." 

He was asked Wednesday if the Yankees can "afford to wait" on resigning Bellinger because they already have youngsters Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones as replacement options, explaining they're taking an "opportunistic" approach when it comes to signings.

"I don't know if it's ‘afford’ to wait. I think we're opportunistic. We like our players. That is a fact," Cashman said. "But there's players outside of our current control system that we also like, and may very well like more and better because there's a lot more certainty there, which comes with cost, whether it's a trade acquisition or free agent dollars. So it's my job to play on that stuff and try to figure that out, and if we come to an area that this makes a lot of sense, then we're ready to pounce and kind of change the equation. 

"But if not, we like what we have, too, at the same time. Jasson Domínguez is on his journey, and Spencer Jones is just beginning his journey. Those are two names, but I got no idea how this is going to play out."

Yankees select RHP Cade Winquest from Cardinals in 2025 Rule 5 Draft

The Yankees selected right-handed pitcher Cade Winquest from the St. Louis Cardinals in the first round of the 2025 Rule 5 Draft.

The selection came as a bit of a surprise, as the Yankees had not made a Rule 5 selection since 2011.

Winquest, 25, was originally drafted by the Cardinals in the eighth round of the 2022 MLB Draft.

Over the course of 58 minor league games (38 starts), Winquest has pitched to a 4.19 ERA with 219 strikeouts in 212.2 innings. 

Winquest finished the 2025 season at the Double-A level, appearing in eight games for Springfield with a 3.19 ERA in 42.1 innings. 

By rule, Winquest must remain on the Yankees’ 26-man active roster (unless he gets placed on the IL) for the entire 2026 season. If the Yankees elect to waive him and he clears waivers, Winquest must be offered back to the Cardinals.

Pete Alonso signs with Orioles for five years, $155 million: Contract details, fantasy fallout

The Orioles have captured a Polar Bear. After missing out on their bid to land free agent slugger Kyle Schwarber on Tuesday, the O's turned their attention to the next best bopper on the open market on Wednesday — agreeing to a five-year, $155 million contract with former Mets' first baseman Pete Alonso.

Alonso becomes the second Mets' star to leave in as many days after Edwin Díaz inked a three-year, $69 million pact with the Dodgers on Tuesday evening.

The agreement — which is still pending a physical — does not include any opt-outs or deferred money according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.

Last offseason, the 31-year-old slugger hit the free agent market for the first time, hoping to land a highly lucrative multi-year deal. He was coming off of a down year though in which he posted a career-worst .788 OPS and was also tied to draft pick compensation after the Mets extended him a qualifying offer. He languished on the free agent market for months before ultimately re-signing with the Mets on a modest two-year, $54 million deal with an opt-out after the 2025 season.

Whether or not that experience gave Alonso any additional motivation heading into the 2025 season can be debated. What can't be debated is that he was an absolute monster at the dish. He slashed .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs and 126 RBI in a career-high 709 plate appearances, making his fourth consecutive National League All-Star squad and winning his first Silver Slugger award while finishing 11th in the MVP voting.

Naturally, after a season like that, Alonso opted out of the final year of his contract with the Mets and chose to hit the free agent market once again.

Alonso took his marketing campaign into his own hands this week, choosing to attend the winter meetings himself to meet with interested teams. Apparently, his meeting with the Orioles went well. They had offered a five-year, $150 million contract to Schwarber on Tuesday before he ultimately re-signed with the Phillies. The Orioles then took that money and offered it to Alonso to add some much-needed right-handed thump to the middle of their lineup.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed afterwards that the Mets never made a formal offer to Alonso this offseason after they heard rumblings of where his market was headed. He notes that they were reluctant to give him a contract of more than three years.

Fantasy Impact

So how is Alonso's fantasy value impacted by the move from the Mets to the Orioles? Let's take a look.

Alonso has such prestigious power that no ballpark can hold him. He ranked in the 96th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate in 2025. The change in venue shouldn't cause any sort of negative impact — especially since the Orioles moved their left field wall back in and lowered its height before the 2025 season.

Citi Field still ranks as a much better park for right-handed power than Oriole Park at Camden Yards does, that doesn't take into account the natural raw power that Alonso possesses. He slugged 38 home runs during the 2025 season. His expected home runs by ballpark pegged him for just 36 at Citi Field, though he would have had an expected 45 in Baltimore. He should be just fine.

The only place that I'm anticipating a potential change in his projection for the 2026 season is in the RBI department. Alonso has always had a knack for driving in runs, having eclipsed the 100-RBI plateau in four of his six full seasons and never finishing with fewer than 88. There's something to be said about having Juan Soto and his league-leading .396 on-base percentage hitting ahead of you though — along with Francisco Lindor as a table-setter atop the lineup. Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg posted OBP's of .314 and .313 in 2025 while Gunnar Henderson checked in at .349. There's always a chance that those young players take major leaps forward in 2026, but it's not a bold take to say that Alonso is likely to have fewer RBI opportunities presented to him in his first season with the Orioles.

You also never know how a player is going to adjust to new surroundings. Alonso has spent his entire career with the Mets and is coming off of a season in which he had extra motivation to produce at the plate after a miserable experience on the free agent market following the 2024 season. We have seen plenty of players over the years struggle in their first season with a new club or see their production tail off a bit after landing such a massive contract, as the pressure to perform to get that deal has been removed. That's not to say that I expect either of those things to happen to Alonso in 2026, it's just something that fantasy managers should keep in mind.

Prior to this news, Alonso was coming off of draft boards on average at pick 28, making him the third first baseman off the board behind only Nick Kurtz and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I anticipate that his draft stock will stay pretty static, as this move really doesn't change much for him overall.

I would expect a regression in batting average after hitting a career-best .272 in 2025 partially influenced by a career-high .305 BABIP. You're not drafting Alonso for his batting average though, you're drafting him because he's one of the safest and most secure power options in the game. He should have no problem once again clubbing around 40 home runs and driving in at least 100 runs. He only provides three categories of production, but those three categories are so good and reliable that it makes him worthy of a pick at the end of the second or beginning of the third round in fantasy baseball drafts.

Mets all-time home run leader Pete Alonso reportedly agrees $155m deal with Orioles

Pete Alonso, left, with Francisco Lindor at the end of last season. Photograph: Lynne Sladky/AP

For the second day in a row, the New York Mets have seen a beloved star agree to terms with another team.

Pete Alonso, the Mets’ all-time leader in home runs, has reportedly agreed to a five-year, $155m contract with the Baltimore Orioles. The news comes a day after the Mets’ long-term closer, Edwin Díaz, reached a three-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Related: Phillies near $150m deal for Schwarber while Dodgers reel in top closer Díaz

The 31-year-old slugger had been unable to find a long-term deal last season and returned to the Mets on a shorter contract, which he opted out of after this year’s World Series. While the Mets were interested in re-signing him they reportedly never made an offer once other teams were willing to offer longer, more valuable deals to the the first baseman.

Alonso has spent his entire MLB career with the Mets, and last season broke Darryl Strawberry’s franchise record for home runs. He ends his Mets career with 264 home runs. He was also incredibly popular with the team’s fans due to his good-nature and power, earning the nickname Polar Bear. The Mets also lost another long-term popular player, Brandon Nimmo, last month in a trade with the Texas Rangers.

Alonso had one of the best offensive seasons of his career in 2025 – he hit .272 with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs – but there are concerns about his defense, a weak point for the Mets, and base running, and the Mets appeared reluctant to give him a multi-year deal when they have already have Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor on expensive, long-term contracts.

Over his Mets career, Alonso hit .253 with 264 home runs and 712 RBIs and an OPS of .857. He was the NL rookie of the year in 2019, when he hit 53 home runs, and a five-time All Star.

Alonso joins an Orioles team that finished last in the AL East last season, although they have several young stars such as Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday.