Category: Baseball

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Brewers fans and fans across the country.

Welcome back to another Reacts Survey! In this week’s survey, we’re asking fans which team they would feel safest about facing in the playoffs.

While there’s obviously no such thing as a “safe” matchup in the postseason, we’re curious to see which team fans feel the safest about facing come a playoff series, and we’re providing a few options in the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Phillies, and Padres.

The Dodgers, who are the biggest threat to Milwaukee for the NL’s best record at 80-51 entering Monday, are understandably the favorite to return to the World Series, as L.A. has won each of the last two years and they’ve only gotten better, at least on paper. The Brewers have had some success against the Dodgers in the regular season this year, though, winning four of seven, including three of four in Los Angeles in August.

The Braves, at 76-55, are currently atop the NL East and sit with the third-best record in the NL, which means as it stands, they would take on the last Wild Card team in the opening round of the postseason. The Brewers have split their season set with Atlanta, going 3-3 with both teams taking two of three at home (though the last of Milwaukee’s “home games” was an Atlanta win at the Little League Classic in Pennsylvania).

The Cubs, at 75-56, are still in play to win the NL Central, though they sit six games behind Milwaukee and currently own the best record in the Wild Card race. The Brewers are 4-2 against Chicago this year, sweeping the Cubs at Wrigley in May before dropping two of three in Milwaukee at the end of June. The two squads still have two series to go, with a four-game set in Chicago to begin September before a three-game set in Milwaukee beginning on Labor Day.

The Phillies, at 73-58, are currently rolling through a nine-game winning streak that has put them right back into the mix for both the top Wild Card spot and the NL East race. After a dismal 9-19 start under Rob Thomson, the team fired Thomson before naming Don Mattingly the interim manager, and Mattingly has proceeded to lead them to a 64-39 record. The Brewers took two of three against Philadelphia in Milwaukee back in June, and the two teams will face off in Philadelphia for three games right before the end of the regular season in late September.

Finally, the Padres, at 71-60, are currently fighting for the last NL Wild Card spot, as they sit in that position now but are just two games ahead of the 69-62 D-backs and four games ahead of the 67-64 Marlins. Despite having the worst record of the teams listed here, the Padres have had the most success against Milwaukee, as they swept the Crew in San Diego in early August after dropping two of three against Milwaukee in May, meaning they’re 4-2 against the Brewers overall.

So, who would you feel safest about facing? Weigh in below and stay tuned for results later this week!

In the wake of the Giancarlo Stanton and Ryan Weathers news from over the weekend, the Yankees are pivoting to take a minor gamble on one of their new additions.

Joel Sherman reported on Monday that veteran right-hander Justin Topa is getting called up to the majors merely 10 days after signing a minor-league deal with the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. He allowed two hits and recorded two strikeouts over two innings in his last outing against the Charlotte Knights and is finishing August with a 1.13 ERA.

While pitching hasn’t necessarily been the main concern for this team heading into September, the Yankees are moving quickly to fill an anticipated opening after Weathers hit the IL on Sunday and the news was confirmed on Saturday of Stanton injuring his left calf while on a rehab assignment. Despite Sherman’s announcement, the Yankees haven’t officially confirmed details of the transaction. They have, however, already optioned Brendan Beck, who took Weathers’ roster spot on Sunday to serve as an extra relief option in case of emergency. (He did not pitch.)

Prior to signing a minor-league deal with the RailRiders, Topa recorded an 8.05 ERA through 19 innings pitched for the Twins this season, though his sinker at least helped him to a 54.4-percent groundball rate; perhaps the Yankees think they can work with him. He signed minor-league contracts with both the Blue Jays and Royals since being released from Minnesota in May and presumably hasn’t had enough time to unpack his bags in one place.

A seven-year veteran, Topa is also a New York product, born and raised in Binghamton, and going to college at Long Island University’s Brooklyn campus. He debuted with the Brewers in 2020 and remained there until getting dealt to the Mariners in 2023. Topa was then flipped to the Twins in the Jorge Polanco deal the following offseason and spent the next couple years there before this season’s sojourn.

Not so much to write home about, but the Yankees apparently have enough confidence to give him a shot, at least in the short term.

“What are the Braves doing at shortstop?” Kind of the recently-eternal question, after the Swanson swan song, Orlando Arcia’s one decent season, and then The Issues since. Seriously, from 2024-2026, the Braves are not only dead last in shortstop fWAR (1.3 in 1673 PAs), but they’re so far down that even the 29th-place team, the Rockies (always the Rockies) has more than double the Braves’ shortstop production (2.7). While Braves’ shortstops have been good defensively (seventh in defensive value in that span, thanks Nick Allen!), they haven’t hit at all, with a 64 wRC+ putting them in their own sad tier, well below the Guardians, Rockies, and Rays, whose shortstop wRC+s over the past three seasons are hanging out in the low-to-mid 70s.

Jim Jarvis, de facto starting shortstop against right-handers for a fair while now, is the latest contributor to this value-bleed, and is now going away.

Jarvis was a fun story, and presented as a fun guy. Acquired as a non-return for Rafael Montero last year, he fared well in Atlanta’s minor league system. He then got a decent run in Atlanta in July, and put together a 111 wRC+. It wasn’t at all supported by his inputs, but even those inputs were decent (.336 wOBA, .308 xwOBA).

But then the calendar turned to August, and Jarvis languished. In 42 August PAs, he has a -36 wRC+ (yes that’s a negative sign) and a .208 xwOBA. Sure, he’s underhitting his xwOBA by nearly .100, but a .208 xwOBA is… really bad. Put this together with shortstop defense that was above-average but not awesome thanks to some goofs on simple plays, and you have Jim Jarvis, 124 major league PAs, a 56 wRC+, and -0.1 fWAR.

So, the Braves will now probably give Mauricio Dubon a longer run at shortstop. There’s an outside chance that Ha-Seong Kim finally gets some playing time, but I guess that depends on the extent to which the Braves care that their recent slump has put a sizable dent in their division odds. If they do, then nah, Kim’s proposition is too risky. If they don’t, well, that’ll be kind of funny for all sorts of reasons. For whatever it’s worth, Dubon is also running up on like eight weeks with a combined xwOBA under .300, but it’s in the .280ish, guy-having-a-bad-time range, rather than the Jarvis desolation of approaching .200.

Brewer Hicklen returns to the major league roster after a continued assault on International League pitching. The journeyman outfielder put up a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A Gwinnett before the Braves called him up shortly before the All-Star Break. He hit incredibly well in 23 PAs with a lot of good fortune baked in (.457 wOBA / 192 WRC+, .354 xwOBA), but ended up being sent down as the Braves needed active roster room. (Okay, they didn’t “need” active roster room. They chose to make room for others at Hicklen’s expense.) Since he was optioned, Hicklen has put up a 143 wRC+ at Triple-A. With Lane Thomas in the fold, Hicklen probably won’t start, but… actually I’m not sure exactly how he’s going to get PAs unless an outfielder needs a breather, but he can at least hang out in the dugout now.

Welcome back to our series on the innovations the Yankees pitching department is making with the sinker! They’ve dusted off the pitch from a period of league-wide dormancy and have a renewed focus on disseminating it across as much of their pitching room as are willing to use it. In May, I kicked off the series by looking at the way Cam Schlittler has incorporated the sinker into his arsenal and how that decision helped launch him to the stratospheric heights he is now pitching at. Then in June, I wondered whether the sinker was the solution to Ryan Weathers’ home run woes. Most recently, I investigated how Paul Blackburn’s transition from throwing the cutter to throwing the sinker as his primary fastball helped key his transformation into a bullpen ace.

We return to the starting rotation for our fourth entry in this series. Carlos Rodón’s season has largely been interrupted by injury, but there’s plenty to be encouraged about the times he does take the mound. Recovery from offseason elbow surgery to remove a bone spur cost him the first month-and-a-half of the campaign. Inflammation in that same elbow cost him another month-and-a-half between July and the first half of August. In total, it’s limited him to 11 starts, the 33-year-old lefty pitching to a 3.15 ERA and 3.61 FIP with 58 strikeouts in 54.1 innings. He’s been limited to just four innings in each of his two starts off the most recent IL stint as he builds his pitch count up, but he’s done well to allow just two earned runs across those eight innings.

After such a disappointing debut season in pinstripes, we’ve written extensively over the intervening three years about his transformation as a pitcher. Not content to simply sit around and collect a paycheck, Rodón reinvented himself in 2024 and 2025, going from a power pitcher who only threw four-seamers and sliders to a true pitcher’s pitcher with a legitimate five-pitch arsenal. Over the last two seasons, we focused a lot on the integration of the curveball and changeup into his repertoire, and particularly the effect that mastering the latter pitch has had on him rediscovering his form in the rotation. Starting in the second half of last season and coming into greater focus this year, it appears reintegration of the sinker is the latest step in his evolution as a starting pitcher.

Rodón threw the sinker pretty regularly his first two seasons in the bigs before it took a backseat to his four-seamer in the following two seasons and disappeared completely from 2019 through 2024. The Yankees encouraged him to dust off the pitch following this six year hibernation, and in 2025 he deployed the sinker with a 9.7-percent usage rate. That’s now up to a 14.5-percent usage rate in 2026.

Not only has he increased his usage of the pitch, but it is also a better offering by several raw metrics then when he threw it his first four seasons with the White Sox. From 2015 to 2018, Rodón’s sinker averaged about 21 inches of drop and about 15 inches of arm-side run, making it a league-average sinker by both vertical and horizontal movement vs. average. Between this year and last, his sinker is now exhibiting about 24.5 inches of downward tilt while maintaining the same amount of lateral break, turning it into a well above average pitch by vertical movement vs. average.

He has done this by tapping into the seam-shifted wake effect created when the orientation of the ball’s seams disrupts the laminar air flow across the ball’s surface during flight — the spin rate, spin axis, and active spin on the pitch have remained pretty stable his entire career meaning this increase in downward movement is conferred by a tweak to the positioning of the seams at release. The result is a sinker that exhibits some of the greatest downward deviation in observed movement vs. the movement profile you would expect from the arm angle he throws it out of. The pitch’s observed movement is deviated 30 degrees downward relative the movement you would expect based on its axis of spin, which for a hitter means a pitch that breaks downward more than you would usually anticipate the sinker would when thrown from his arm slot. Contrast this with when he was with the White Sox, and his sinker had zero deviation in observed movement vs. expected spin-based movement.

The main function of his sinker is as a lefty-neutralizing fastball given that the four-seamer doesn’t perform quite as well against same-handed batters. The sinking movement down and in is super effective at keeping the ball off a lefty’s barrel, particularly when thrown to the arm-side edge of the strike zone.

The way this pitch darts in toward the label of Devers’ bat and downward at the last moment is key to generating the inning ending double play ball. Of all the pitches Rodón has thrown at least ten-percent of the time this year, the sinker is the best in terms of expected wOBA (.194), average exit velocity (83.5 mph), hard-hit rate (22.2-percent), and ground ball rate (59.3-percent) and has yet to allow a barrel in 27 batted ball events.

Not only that, the pitch can act as a swing and miss pitch against lefties, especially those who are expecting a four-seamer.

Devers whiffs over the top of this sinker for the strikeout. With the extra downward movement Rodón is able to impart on the pitch, at times it can almost act as hard reverse slider. Traditionally not a chase or swing and miss pitch, Rodón’s sinker has induced impressive marks of a 29.9-percent chase rate and 18.2-percent whiff rate in 2026.

Which brings me to the final facet of the pitch I’d like to talk about — it’s the interaction between Rodón’s four-seamer and sinker that has me most intrigued. Rodón has proven quite adept at tunneling his sinker off his four-seamer. Just check out this overlay against Devers from last year:

Both four-seamer and the sinker that followed it exit Rodón’s hand aimed at a similar spot. Whereas the four-seamer flies pretty straight and stays level on its vertical plane, just look at the way the sinker falls off the path charted by the four-seamer, resulting in two pitches that look almost identical out of the hand landing in two different spots in the zone.

A lot of research that has been done over the last few years in the pitching arena concerns the benefit, especially for starting pitchers, of throwing at least two different types of fastballs. The above overlay illustrates this effect well. Because it is almost impossible for the hitter to distinguish different fastball types based on spin the way you might be able to discern a slider or curveball from a heater, throwing two or more fastballs with divergent movement profiles makes each individual pitch better. Indeed, Rodón’s four-seamer and sinker are performing at their highest level in years, both pitches holding hitters well below the Mendoza line while the four-seamer has its best whiff-rate (25.3-percent) in his Yankees career, and I believe this is down to Rodón throwing his sinker more.

With the injuries mounting in the rotation to Rodón’s fellow southpaws Max Fried and Ryan Weathers (though both with encouraging prognoses), Rodón’s continued build up from his latest injury setback becomes all the more critical. The Yankees need him healthy and firing on all cylinders if they are going to mount a challenge for the division much less make a deep postseason run. With the sinker representing his latest evolution as a starting pitcher, I feel he is well equipped to reach the heights he hit last season.

“Aren’t the Reds kinda-sorta good every year and on the fringe of contention?“ I wondered, before finally examining this year’s team. They’re 42-58 after a 20-11 start. Reminiscent of last year’s Giants, I’d say. But, technically, aren’t the Reds supposed to have a lot more talent on the roster? First and foremost, there’s Elly De La Cruz, a player who’s the envy of every other franchise? Isn’t that Chase Burns having a pretty great season on the mound? Both true, but they haven’t been enough to make the team competitive.

The Reds’ lineup is dead last in the sport in terms of value (6.5 fWAR), thanks to a line of .227/.307/.392 (88 wRC+ — also 30th in MLB). You might be thinking, “Wait, don’t they play in a bandbox called The Great American Ballpark?” And you’d be right. It’s one of the best parks for hitting. That ought to underscore just how poor the team’s lineup is. They’ve scored 14 more runs than the Giants (537 to 523 — 25th and 27th in MLB, respectively), but that’s not saying much. But, they are also the best at the ABS challenge system? They’ve won 57% of their challenges (82 of 144) at the plate and 68% (108/159) in the field. The Giants are bad at everything. But the Reds’ hitting woes didn’t necessarily have to sink them.

Their pitching has been bad, too.

Their team fWAR of 9.0 is 22nd in MLB. They’re just ahead of your San Francisco Giants (8.7), which is a real surprise, because I figured the Giants would be even closer to the bottom. Since, you know, again, they’re bad at everything. But the Reds’ team ERA of 4.52 is hardly good. Their 4.73 xERA trails only the Rockies (5.22), Nationals (4.84), Dbacks and Royals (4.75). How is a team staff with some real talent about as good as the Rockies’?

I guess the secret is that after Chase Burns (and the seemingly perma-injured Hunter Greene), there’s not much talent there. Everyone on the staff outside of Burns and Green and reliever Luis May have FIPs of 4 or more. That’s awful. That’s dreadful, and it might not be entirely tied to the talent itself.

In one of their recent SB Nation Reacts polls, 47% of Reds fans (via our Reds sister site Red Reporter) laid blame for the season at the feet of the front office. Their site manager, Wick Terrell, summarizes it well:

They’re the ones that not only sent a Top 10 organizational prospect to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Ke’Bryan Hayes and his chronically bad back, they’re also the ones that decided to take on the full $36 million still owed to him despite their perpetually tight budgets. They’re also the ones that sunk all their bullpen cash into Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, and Brock Burke, and the ones who threw Eugenio Suarez $15 million for his immediate decline.

They’re the ones who have seen the products of the 2022 Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray trades simply not materialize at all. They’re also the ones who couldn’t get Elly De La Cruz under long-term contract, officially putting the future of the franchise on short-term notice every day.

My only quibble from the outside looking in is that Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, and Brock Burke might’ve been huge upgrades to the Giants’ bullpen this season (lol).

So the Reds haven’t maximized their limited resources and have struggled mightily despite having some interesting talent, a fun ballpark for hitting, and a three Wild Card system.

They’ll be hosted by one of the most disappointing teams in the history of its own franchise, a continuation of a decade of failure (sorry, 2021 — you flukes still lost to the Dodgers), and a team that has no answers for what happened and is simply operating on faith that things will just magically get better. That a franchise that has struggled to develop prospects since moving from New York to San Francisco will be able to do so in a way that takes the team from abject losers (not just from a pro athlete standpoint, but from a moral character POV, too) to somewhat consistent fringe contenders. It’s a team that only fans could love hosting a team whose fans are starting to frustrate beyond reason.

No, but seriously, what’s going on with the Reds? Why aren’t they better?

Series Overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (52-78) vs. Cincinnati Reds (62-69)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Monday & Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: None.

Projected starters
Friday: TBD vs. Chase Burns (RHP 14-2, 2.51 ERA)
Saturday: TBD vs. Brady Singer (RHP 5-11, 4.72 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP 3-3, 5.04 ERA)

Players to watch

Reds (besides Elly De La Cruz)

JJ Bleday: It looked like Bleday’s career was bound for a year or two in the minors or overseas play but the Reds took a chance (?) and have gotten 21 HR and a .779 OPS out of the #4 overall pick from the 2019 draft who couldn’t hack it on the A’s. The 28-year old was signed to a 1-year, $1.4 million deal and has crushed right-handed pitching most of the season (.234/.349/.467 — .816 OPS). I say “most” because since the All-Star break (now 36 games for him), he’s hitting just .186/.303/.347. He has also been bad on the road all year (.908 home OPS vs. .660 road OPS). He’s just 11-for-his-last-60 which includes 9 road games out of 17 total. But drill down a bit more and he’s 8-for-his-last-27 with a double, a triple, and a homer. He’s also struck out 11 times in 30 PA and walked just 3 times, so, it’s possible he’s being a bit more aggressive at the plate to hit out of this post-break slump. Or, you know, he’s turning into a pumpkin.

Sal Stewart: He might not beat out JJ Wetherholt for NL Rookie of the Year, but it also might be pretty close. The 22-year old has 27 homers in 568 plate appearances to go with a line of .263/.336/.472 (.808). That’s also a 114 wRC+, which is less than Bryce Eldridge’s 119 wRC+ — so, ha! Take that, Eno Sarris? Eldridge seems to be handling the ups and downs of a big league season pretty well, I’d say, and so I wonder if his .252/.346/.435 season line would look better, worse, or about the same if the PA totals were similar. I do wonder if the diehardest Giants fans out there would hold fast to their “all Giants prospects are better than other teams’ prospects” if they saw Sal Stewart’s 98 RBI. As a rookie? I mean, c’mon. There’s no question who has been better this season between Sal Stewart and Bryce Eldridge, right? Also, Oracle Park’s favorability towards right-handed pull hitters would seem to set up this rookie slugger to have a great series. Unfortunately, we won’t be able to watch him slug it out against the hometown rook as Bryce Eldridge will miss it due to bereavement leave.

Chase Burns: Admittedly, with a seven-year gap between the Reds drafting Hunter Greene and Chase Burns, there’s not a case to be made that they have been extremely fortunate to draft aces with first round picks recently. That’s essentially luck. Then again, I wonder how many teams have gotten so much value out of first round picks. Just this century: Jeremy Sowers (2001), Homer Bailey (2004), Jay Bruce (2005), Drew Stubbs (2006), Todd Frazier (2007), Devin Mesoraco (2007), Yonder Alonso (2008), Brad Boxberger (2009), Mike Leake (2009), Yasmani Grandal (2010), Robert Stephenson (2011), Jeese Winker (2012), Michael Lorenzen (2013), Tyler Stephenson (2015), Hunter Greene (2017), Jonathan India (2018), Nick Lodolo (2019), Matt McLain (2021), Sal Stewart (2022), Rhett Lowder (2023), and Chase Burns (2024).

That’s great.

The Giants had a moment in time like that, too. Noah Lowry (2001), Brad Hennessey (2001), Matt Cain (2002), David Aardsma (2003), Tim Lincecum (2006), Madison Bumgarner (2007), Buster Posey (2008), Connor Gillaspie (2008), Zack Wheeler (2009), Gary Brown (2010), Kyle Crick (2011), Joe Panik (2011), Chris Stratton (2012), Christian Arroyo (2013), Phil Bickford (2015), Heliot Ramos (2017), Joey Bart (2018), Patrick Bailey (2020), Bryce Eldridge (2023).

But about Burns specifically, the Reds are 18-6 in his starts this season. When asked about his approach, Burns revealed himself to be a mindless throwing machine.

Like I said, just fill up the zone. I’m not trying to be too perfect. Line it up. Try to let them put it in play. I’m not a big in, out, up, and down guy. I’m kind of just throw it down the middle and let it eat. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I think it’s been working so far.

The power of being young. He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know and he has the physical talents that don’t yet require him to know any better. His four-seamer averaged 97.6 mph (thrown 56.4%) and his slider, which he throws 38.4% of the time spins at 2,771 rpm. It’s elite stuff. He has a changeup to keep hitters honest (5% of the time it’s thrown, 34.1% whiff rate) but he’s simply dominating with two pitches.

Now, as a team, the Giants are +1 in run value vs. the 4-seam fastball, but that’s based on 24 players who’ve seen the pitch at least 10 times and is only positive because 7 of the 24 have done well against the pitch. So.

Okay, but real quick about Elly De La Cruz. The 24-year old shortstop is having the best season of his career at the plate (.817 OPS in 502 PA), but he’s in a bit of a slump, too. Over the past 30 days, just a .712 OPS with only 6 stolen bases in 8 attempts. Since August 7th, he’s hitting just .182/.267/.318 (.585).

Giants

Rafael Devers: I think what a player does when nobody watches and nobody cares matters quite a lot when evaluating them. Nobody cares about the Giants and Rafael Devers is going to spend the rest of his career in an anonymous situation. He’s not going to be a Hall of Famer, he likely won’t make an All-Star game, and he probably won’t see the playoffs again. Is that the universe punishing him for not handling the Red Sox’s clear mismanagement of him with an unreasonable amount of grace? Or, is he simply not that great of a player?

He was a career 127 wRC+ hitter heading into this season. He’s at 116 through 130 games. Over the past calendar month, he’s hit .240/.347/.470 (126 wRC+) which looks good, but since August 7th, when the reality of the team’s post-trade deadline, post-relevance situation really sunk in, he’s down to .185/.302/.426 over his last 63. Going all the way back to the start of those 30 games, the Giants were 6-7 through August 6th, and 4-11 since.

Willy Adames: Lingering injuries might prevent him from having a hot end to his 2026, but he’s coming perilously close to posting his career worst and it’ll be hard to separate that from the Giants having one of their worst seasons ever.

Jung Hoo Lee: The Giants are 5-15 in August, 5-14 when Jung Hoo Lee has played. He’s hit just .234/.268/.390 in the month. He’s made just 11 challenges at the ABS all season (5/11) and seems like a player who should do it more. But the 45% success rate seems to have made him shy. Defensively, he’s — at best — unremarkable, and frequently fails the eye test. He’s too young to be considered a total bust, but this season has gone a long way towards cementing him as a fourth outfielder on a good team and a below average starter on a second division squad.

These are three presumably key players if the Giants hope to have a turnaround in the next couple of years, and all they’ve really done this season is give weight to the idea that the Giants are simply the farm upstate where retired dogs go to live out their days.

Prediction time

To answer my closing question above — Why aren’t the Reds better? — I’m sure we’ll be seeing their very best in this three-game series. Sure, they’re -50 in run differential on the road but they’re 30-33, record-wise. They’re 7-8 at Oracle post-COVID

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

A new week is here, so it is time to kick it off on a high note!

Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, which include backing a lot of pricey favorites this evening.

Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks on Monday, Aug. 24.

MLB moneyline picks for August 24

Matchup	Pick
Red Sox vs Marlins	+109
Rays vs Tigers	-126
Rockies vs Nationals	-183
Rangers vs White Sox	-131
Guardians vs Angels	-161
Cubs vs Diamondbacks	-137
Twins vs Athletics	+140
Phillies vs Mariners	-112
Pirates vs Padres	+101
Reds vs Giants	+140

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-24.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 24

Red Sox vs Marlins: Marlins (+109)

Marlins win probability: 46%

The home underdog in this spot is very appealing, especially with how poorly Boston Red Sox southpaw Ranger Suarez has pitched over his last five starts and how well former NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara has been during that same stretch.

Boston's offense has been pretty hot as of late, but the Miami Marlins ace should be able to hold down this lineup, while Miami's bats look to exploit Suarez's flaws.

Rays vs Tigers: Rays (-126)

Rays win probability: 55%

Neither lineup has been very hot at the dish, but one team has a right-hander on the mound this evening who has been nails over his last five outings. Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen sports a 2.10 ERA, 2.3 xERA and 0.83 WHIP during that stretch.

On the other side, Framber Valdez has been solid over his last five, but his underlying metrics point toward regression. The Detroit Tigers southpaw has been allowing a 51.61% hard-hit rate, 1.48 WHIP and 4.44 xERA.

Pay the juice. Rays or nothing.

Rockies vs Nationals: Nationals (-183)

Nationals win probability: 64%

Not the most appealing price tag for a team like the Washington Nationals to secure a win, but with how poorly Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner has been and how red-hot Cade Cavalli has been on the rubber, it has to be done.

Feltner owns a 7.18 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 11.38% strikeout rate over his last five starts. Cavalli, on the other hand, has posted a 1.97 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 28.69% strikeout rate over the same span. 

The Rockies have also posted a 26.2% strikeout rate over their last six games. Could we be in for a Cavalli masterclass?

Rangers vs White Sox: White Sox (-131)

White Sox win probability: 55%

Guardians vs Angels: Guardians (-161)

Guardians win probability: 60%

Pay the juice.

This evening, Cleveland Guardians left-hander Parker Messick is in yet another shove spot and could easily rack up 10+ strikeouts against a very swing-happy Los Angeles Angels lineup.

George Klassen has been solid across his last few starts, but the Guardians' bats have been far hotter than the Angels over the last week.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks: Cubs (-137)

Cubs win probability: 57%

But, but, but... the Chicago Cubs scored 19 runs yesterday.

I. Do. Not. Care.

That same lineup draws Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, who owns a near 8.00 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 16.42% walk rate over his last three starts.

Those are very hard numbers to overlook. Plus, the Cubs own a 150 wRC+, .359 wOBA and .824 OPS over their last 12 games.

Cubs or nothing here. Zero trust in Kelly.

Twins vs Athletics: Athletics (+140)

Athletics win probability: 41%

With both sides ice-cold at the dish and sending out some of their worst arms to kick off this matchup, paying -155 for a lineup that owns a 91 wRC+, .301 wOBA and .676 OPS over the last week, along with a right-hander allowing a hard-hit rate over 63% and a 4.60 ERA over his last three starts, makes very little sense.

Take the underdog

Phillies vs Mariners: Phillies (-112)

Phillies win probability: 52%

Even with the Seattle Mariners coming off a blowout loss to the Cubs yesterday, there is no reason to expect them to bounce back. Over the last month, Seattle has posted a wRC+ under 100 while owning just a .130 ISO and .664 OPS.

Until they turn it around, take the much hotter team at just $1.12.

Pirates vs Padres: Pirates (+101)

Pirates win probability: 49%

The Pittsburgh Pirates should be able to get after tight-pants Robbie Ray early and often. The veteran southpaw owns a 5.35 xERA and 1.53 WHIP while allowing a 44% hard-hit rate and 15.56% barrel rate over his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Braxton Ashcraft has been lights out during that same stretch, posting a 2.98 xERA and 0.64 WHIP.

The San Diego Padres' bats have been better than the Pirates over the last few weeks, but Pittsburgh should be just fine against a struggling arm.

Reds vs Giants: Giants (+140)

Giants win probability: 40%

Completely understand Chase Burns being the main reason the Reds are such a heavy favorite in this spot, but their offense is beyond cold. Do we really want to lay $1.55 for the Reds to secure a win at this point?

Carson Whisenhunt has not been great either, but trusting the Reds while paying juice is not the way to end your Monday.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

On this week’s episode, Scott and I discuss the first Cardinals rotation injuries that occurred in 2 years, and while they occurred at a very difficult time, it might not be as detrimental as some fans might believe. Kyle Leahy is having his innings tapered as the season begins to wind down, and Quinn Mathews is struggling to get deep into games due to command issues. The Cardinals are likely to seek some veteran innings to help finish the season, and we discussed a few available names and one that Cardinals fans are very familiar with (all hail the Lizard King)! Finally, we finish the show talking about the piece written by Scott on Sunday that explored the idea of extending Masyn Winn, the rationale behind it, and what the contract could look like if we were in charge of the negotiation.

The Cardinals are trying to finish the season strong, and so are we. We are hopeful to be joined by Post Dispatch beat writer Derrick Goold this upcoming week; we also have Rob Cerfolio, Jeff Jones, Bernie Miklasz, Brendan Schaeffer, Josh Jacobs, and Brian Walton as upcoming guests over the coming weeks, so if that lineup excites you more than the Cardinals one that Manager Oli Marmol puts out daily then make sure you’re subscribed and dont miss out on any of the fun!

Spotify:

YouTube:

Transcript:

Jake Wood (00:24)
Welcome into the Viva El Birdos Podcast. My name is Jake Wood, and I write for VivaElBirdos.com. I am the host of the show, and I am joined by fellow writer Scott Plaza. Please be sure to like and subscribe to our channel. We are available on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all of your favorite audio streaming platforms. Scott, how you doing tonight, man?

Scott Plaza (00:45)
Not too bad. It’s the weekend, you know, Sunday night, Sunday scaries are for real. Second full week of school coming up and just, you know, I think I’m just gonna be swimming upstream all year. But hey, it’s accepting it now and just realizing what the year’s gonna be.

Jake Wood (00:59)
Well, as a father, not as a teacher, I am so thrilled for school to be back in session and for these dang kids to get out of my house, let me tell ya. I’m just so thrilled, and also with that I you know, send out some prayers for all of our teachers this year as they have to deal with our wonderful children. So

Scott Plaza (01:17)
See, that’s my summer was spent with my three- and one-year-old, so I was excited to get back to school just to have some free time, actually away from- But now my three-year-old goes to the preschool with me, so it’s super fun to do that. But it’s just being surrounded by different kids who don’t listen to me every day.

Jake Wood (01:34)
You know, that’s the best. My kid also likes to tell us that whenever he gets told no, we’re the worst, and you know, all of that great stuff. So you love to hear it. Every parent can identify with that. But enough about our rambling. This week I I think a lot of the Cardinals’ underbelly- this team was taken advantage of. And I don’t want to use the word exposed because we all came into the season really knowing what those potential flaws already were. So, you know, what the Cardinals organization and we couldn’t account for necessarily was injury. And for the first time in about 18 months, the Cardinals had arm-related injuries to Andre Pallante, whose injury sounds very mild, and he may only miss one start given the upcoming off days; the more pressing and concerning is the injury to Hunter Dobbins, who suffered a forearm strain is almost certainly done for the year. Scott, what did you make of this past week and kind of the injuries on top of everything that kind of occurred?

Scott Plaza (02:41)
Yeah, we’ve been hearing about the innings limits coming up for multiple guys. The phenomenal run of health. I mean, you can’t you don’t expect to have five of your first starters that were in your opening day rotation to be 150-inning guys. You expect something’s gonna be happening throughout the year. The Dobbins one is the biggest bummer because he’s finally up for a consistent run. And coming after Pallante, I thought the way that they went into this weekend, they were leaving a lot of things open. Pallante was the first one that they kind of were like, okay, let’s have an opportunity to get Quinn up here for another one of his extended runs. and then maybe they’re gonna start to run through a six six man rotation especially like you mentioned with those off days coming up to try to only miss a Pellante start or two because like you said it does not sound like it’s super, super something to be worried about. and then with Kyle Leahy, we today we saw him be phenomenal through a whopping sixty through sixty three pitches today. I have no arguments. I I it sucks. It’s a bummer, especially in the year that we’re theoretically in the hunt, like in the NFL graphic, as long as you’re in the hunt. It’s a solid year. And it’s a bummer that that’s just the reality of it. I wish I could see Leahy go even just five innings and keep building on his solid season, but it’s just the reality of the situation that we’re in. And it’s a bummer, and we’re gonna see some new guys that probably we didn’t want to see because I don’t think

Jake Wood (04:10)
Ha ha ha.

Scott Plaza (04:10)
I ’cause I don’t think it’s gonna be the prospects that we wanna see coming up. I think we’re gonna like

we’re

Jake Wood (04:14)
Correct.

Scott Plaza (04:14)
gonna mention it’s gonna be the guys that are just gonna get us through, like the junior cuera cuertos and stuff like that. Sorry, sorry, Juniel, not junior.

Jake Wood (04:20)
Juniel Querecuto, yes. And I think that, you know, I want to touch on the Leahy part really quickly. Like you said, we’re for this. This is smart. And as frustrating as it is, given where the Cardinals kind of are in the quote-unquote hunt, I’m writing an article that’ll come out Tuesday that is kind of detailing and outlining kind of where I think the Cardinals are with everything, right? And just to kind of tease us a little bit, I likened it to going to a concert, but all of us as fans we’re we’re at the concert an hour early, right? We’re watching the stage be built right now. We’re not the show has not started yet. And I think that I, in a way, this season, a lot of the fa like a lot of the unexpected good things happen are very similar to like, you know, you know those videos where, a a person who goes like undercover is like maybe out there dressed as a roadie or a stagehand, but is actually like the lead guitarist, and all of the early people who are kind of there are unsuspecting, and then all of a sudden he like grabs the guitar and starts just shredding on the on on the guitar and everyone’s just blown away like, wow, this was amazing. I didn’t expect all of this before the show even starts, kind of thing. And so I kind of I I put myself and my perspective kind of there. I think we’re witnessing the stage being built. We’re not yet ready for the show to start. And so from that that prism is kind of how I’m taking in this Cardinals team right now. And for whatever happens throughout the rest of the season, I got an unexpected show that I came into this season. If you think back to, you know, when we did our standings predictions before the season started, and I told you I had no problem envisioning this team being a ninety-loss team. And at this point, being sixty-six and sixty-six, being a five-and-a-half-win team, I believe they’re way outpacing what my expectations were this year. Also for those of you who might have put in a little wager on where the Cardinals were their win total was at the beginning of the year- your number is coming up very quickly, so be very optimistic about rightly outguessing what the oddsmakers had put down on the Cardinals. So congratulations on that. You’ll probably hit that at some point this week. to Scott Plaza. to

the go-ahead.

Scott Plaza (06:53)
See, I wanna say that, like, being sixty-six and sixty-six. How this year is going to end with all the injuries and stuff, and like, this holy cow from what could have been a five-game sweep of the Reds to being lucky to win three. Thanks, Dane Myers.

Jake Wood (07:08)
Yeah. Thank you.

Scott Plaza (07:10)
And then getting swept by Philadelphia in another series that, like, you could have won. By the end of the season, the Cardinals are gonna be exactly on pace for where they should have been at the end of this year. Just they’re gonna get there in a way that is just kind of for lack of a better term, a heartbreak because the I don’t know what I don’t think anybody truly believed bought in like to the ten games over for as long as they were, that that’s what it was gonna last the whole year, but it did keep people more involved for longer. So now it’s gonna hurt more as people start to tune out because of the direction this team’s probably gonna finish. And if it’s a seventy-five win team, that means they’re only winning nine games for the rest of the year. So it’s gonna be painful, but by the end of the year, if they’re a seventy-five-win team, that’s probably where Chaim expected they were gonna be at this point anyway.

Jake Wood (07:59)
And for what it’s worth, I believe they only have two series remaining with teams who are above five hundred, the rest of the way, with the Dodgers and the Brewers. Of course it’s the two best teams in the national league, but outside of that, they have an upcoming homestand with the Orioles and the Pirates. They’re gonna play the Rockies and the Giants again. I believe they have another trip to Pittsburgh; I believe it is one of the other locations. That’s this is all me just pulling up off the top of my head. I don’t have this in front of me. but there are a lot of teams left on the Cardinals schedule remaining where the Cardinals can, you know, quote unquote feast off of to kind of prop up that win total going forward. I think a lot of their the harder portions of their schedule were early in the season. But this unfortunately does not give me a ton of hope because it does seem like at certain points in the season the Cardinals will either play up or down to the competition that they face. Whether that’s intentional or not is is like not important. But the fact that they’re gonna be playing a lot of teams who are under 500 who underperform this season. I’m a little weary about kind of will they still have that internal drive and that push to kind of, you know, slaughter and bury the opponent to kind of help prop them up even further and keep them kind of afloat as this thing goes along. But if they’re going to stay afloat, they need arms in the rotation to do so. And that’s kind of where I wanted to get back to the Andre Pellante and Hunter Dobbins of it all. And the fact that Andre is only going miss probably one start, and like or at least have one start skipped during this IL time because there are off days, just kind of the way the schedule works and the Cardinals anticipate that you know, it’s it’s only gonna be a minimum stay, yada yada yada. I think that that is should be looked at as maybe a a bullet dodged. Especially for those of you who out there believe that this Cardinals team is capable of potentially sneaking into that final wild card spot. you know, there that is a a positive on that side. Hunter Dobbins, while it sucks that he the injury occurred to him, I don’t think that Hunter Dobbins this year has been like the difference maker in this rotation, especially since he’s joined it. It’s been four or five and dive. It’s been a lot of deep counts. He you know, it’s been a lot of gutting through and just kind of trying to keep teams in the in the game. And so I I don’t know that that necessarily severely impacts this team’s ability to compete going forward. But I also want to acknowledge that it sucks. I hate it for Hunter Dobbins and that, you know, everyone here at Viva Alberto’s wishes him a speedy recovery and gets back on the mound as soon as possible. Cause we we were very encouraged with what we were able to see from him this season and the arm talent that he has going forward. But Quinn Matthews was called up to pitch in one of those spots. again struggling to get through four or five innings. If if Zach or if if Quinn Matthews is kind of the replacement for Hunter Dobbins. I don’t think that is marginally better or worse in any stance. I think it kind of just remains a lot more of what we’ve seen thus far. he did get a lot of soft co soft and medium contact against him in his start on Saturday. it was very reminiscent of like an Andre Pellante start of 2025 where every single ball that was put in play just found a hole and it was very tough to watch, very aggravating, and he was falling behind a lot of hitters, and so I think that for Quinn to take that next step, his emphasis on getting ahead of hitters and then being able to do what he wants to do and inducing chase around the zone is gonna be very key for him.

And so that’ll be something that I’m watching for him specifically throughout the rest or remainder of the season. Moving on to what the Cardinals may potentially do for some additional innings, as we talked about, Kyle Leahy begins to ramp down on his usage because he only had thrown 88 innings the previous season, and now he is up to 121 innings. So I believe that’s like a 30 to 40% increase if I’m doing my math correctly. Somebody who’s good at math, fact check that for me, please. but you you typically there’s a reason why they’re backing off of Kyle Leahy so significantly is because there have been studies done where pitchers who dramatically increase their their usage year over year tend to be higher more more susceptible to injuries that occur to those pitchers. And so the Cardinals are trying to preserve Kyle Leahy’s health heading into the offseason. So that way in twenty twenty seven, kind of to my metaphor, he’s ready for whenever the Cardinals are ready to kind of, you know, reannounce that they’re here to push for something meaningful and substantial.

Some names that have been kind of thrown out from our friend Jeff Jones of the Belleville News Democrat are speculated on. Mike Michael Lorenzen pitched for the Rockies. He pitched for the Reds a few years ago. Some of you may be familiar with him. pitched for the Phillies, pitched for the Royals; he’s pitched for quite a few different teams as a journeyman. re

Scott Plaza (13:13)
Former two-way guy.

Jake Wood (13:14)
Former two-way pitcher. Yeah, that’s correct. He’s very intriguing. Recently, the Arizona Diamondbacks DFA’d Zach Lattell. He was an arm that was brought in to the Nationals this offseason to kind of fill the same type of role, give them some innings. He’s not overly sub sp spectacular, a veteran back into the start back into the rotation type starter. Again, he’ll give you five, six innings and hopefully allows you to kind of stay in the game; pitches to contact, just like our old friend Miles Mikolas, who was also released recently and may be an option for the Cardinals at this point. I saw earlier today online that STL Sports Central that page had created a graphic that talked about a potential return question mark, and Miles liked it. So that’s always a good sign, of course. So Scott, what are your thoughts on the potential of a return of the lizard king Miles Mikolas to this St. Louis Cardinals rotation?

Scott Plaza (14:18)
Personal thoughts aside, it just goes in the wrong direction or the opposite direction of what this team was supposed to be about. Kind of like the Ramon Urias signing. I was I was for the Ramon Urias Arias signing at the beginning of the year, but there were people that were like, Well that’s gonna take away at bats from the guys that you need to learn about the Saggesse’s of the world, the Bryan Torres who actually, you know, ended up getting a shot, Prieto, happy first hit. But then it goes down to now: if you’re gonna sign, yeah, no. But if you’re gonna sign Miles Mikolas, like, sure, this is where I go back to Dobbins for a second. He was the most major league-ready of the Triple-A starters and probably still was, even with Matthews getting called up, like we’ve seen.

Jake Wood (14:58)
Minus Richard Fitts, who had the lat strain. That that also factors into this here as well.

Scott Plaza (15:01)
Right, which, absolutely, as a proud owner of a Richard Fitts jersey, I miss him so much. But that’s that’s kind of where the Mikolas of it all; there’s no point. Like, that is just literally for all the people that are saying they are not trying to win this year; that would be the first time, I believe, they would actually show they are not trying to win this year. And that’s something that, as a fan base, we know this season is, especially at this point, seeing what’s happened the last couple of weeks, even with the series win streaks. They’d rather play shorthanded, as frustrating as that is, than give a veteran and a veteran of it, who got DFA’d before being so terrible from the Nationals, and nobody picked him up, and Miles Mikolas. That’s just the wrong message, the wrong direction. It’s not even a leadership move at this point because he’s not going to be there. The guys that are there currently are, you know, they might change to the Mikolas situation speculation. It’s good for the clicks and the engagement. It could happen. I would just be really upset if it did, and that’s again just for the baseball side of it. It’s the wrong move for a team to make because that’s just showing we’re just gonna limp to the finish line, and that’s just a hired gun, like an opposite CC Sabbathia where the Brewers just pitched him out there ’cause they were actually trying to win and Mert know they weren’t gonna resign him where this one they’d be like, hey, go ahead and go do this and then we’ll see it we’ll see Pedro Pages pitch again at the end of the game.

Jake Wood (16:31)
Two-way player, Pedro Pages. Am I right? That was electric. Electric. He could play catcher,

Scott Plaza (16:34)
Bring the mercy rule. Bring the mercy rule to baseball. Mercy rule.

Jake Wood (16:38)
He could play second base; he could pitch. He is the unequivocal soul of this roster. No, but getting back to like, the seriousness of it, I think that of the three names that have kind of been, like, you know, again, our friend Jeff Jones had kind of speculated on. I think that Zach Littell is the most intriguing, though I would say that he has to make it through all of the other teams that are currently like below the Cardinals in the standings because it’s a DFA situation, so a claim would be put on him. so like the Cardinals there would be a little bit of luck involved with that, but I’m certain that they would probably put a claim on him for the veteran minimum at this point. It makes little sense not to. And I think that Zach Littell is like the what, what is, how do you say it? Like, if you’re given a choice of bad or worse. You y you just kinda choose the bad option, not the worst option. So, you know, I’m not trying to say that Zach Littell is bad. He’s just, again, kind of like what Scott had mentioned, kind of just filler, right? He he he steps in, he does his job, gives you five, six innings. They may not be the most inspiring, exciting innings. You may not walk away going, Man, I really hope they keep this guy around for the long term, but he can do the job, and the Cardinals can kind of keep it moving.

Scott Plaza (17:58)
See, that’s where I like Littell because he could like he’s he hasn’t have the the profile or whatever, but a a thirty year old guy who could do something that then you could sign for another one year deal, like that is much more beneficial than giving those innings to a Miles Michaelis.

Jake Wood (18:16)
Just, I mean, just last year he was like a trade piece that was a target at the deadline, not for the Cardinals, but the Reds traded for him from the Rays last year in the middle of a playoff push for them. So he’s not that far removed from being like someone who was readily desired.

Scott Plaza (18:34)
Mm-hmm.

Jake Wood (18:35)
And I think that, like, he fits the profile of what the Cardinals kind of have in-house currently. A lot of guys who just throw the kitchen sink at you and kind of see what sticks. I think that very much describes Zack Littell. Maybe the Cardinals get in here and tweak something small with what he’s y doing with his usage, or maybe his arm angle- something small that wouldn’t require a ton of work in season. And maybe they could get just like that two to three percent more out of him than what he was being gotten out of him from either Washington or Arizona this season. From the pitcher injury side of things to the offensive side, Masyn Winn is another player who suffered a minor injury. And, you know, Scott, you wrote about the possibility of extending him. What were your basic outlined thoughts on that? And do you have a figure that you came up with that would make sense if you were in the Cardinals’ shoes?

Scott Plaza (19:33)
Yeah, so I am a known Masyn Winn believer, every year thinking he’s going to continue to improve with the bat as well as be spectacular with the glove. Let me first start off by saying I’m usually against paying defense-first people. Especially when you get into, like, the Dansby Swansons of the world. Yes, he had some solid offensive seasons as well, but then you see him getting two hundred million and the like; well, his defense for a nine-hitter. Like, that’s not what I’m trying to get to. You can always find a Brendan Ryan to fill in somewhere if you need to, at, you know, major league minimum. But what we’ve been seeing with Masyn Winn defensively, especially this past month, has just been spectacular, and it truly has been game-changing. Whether it’s showing off the arm to Justin Turner or making plays on both sides, and then seeing J. J. Weatherholt- like, he just makes everybody better in the infield. It’s the bat; the whole idea that I was going with today is getting him before he gets too expensive, which may never happen. And that’s what I did not clarify, because I don’t like to put that out into the world. I he could never meet the potential that I think he could still reach at some point with the bat, but in the chance that he can, he could price himself out of the Cardinals’ range. And based on their timeline, who knows when that could be. So, as I started coming up with I didn’t like to go into comps because he’s just a little bit different. Being so young. He’ll be a free agent at the age of twenty-seven, I believe is what it ended up or twenty-eight, depending on the qualifying offer a year and stuff like that. The offense has been tough, but not as bad when you look at the underlying stuff as maybe it looks when you see his back foot flailing all the time whenever he sick takes a swing.

So I threw out at the end I said six for one hundred, and that’s just kind of a number that I always tend to start with for an extension because you boil it down and think about, you know, is that gonna be too much at some point? No. I mean, it’s right around the sixteen million or whatever that JJ’s average annual value is as well. And then I want to give a shout-out to CoastieCardinal for responding. Like, is six-one-hundred is that the rate for defense-only shortstops? And that’s where I’m like, I don’t know. Like it is that the rate for defensive-only shortstops? So I looked at Spotrac really quick before this, and I looked at a couple guys that are making a little bit above and a little bit below. So, Ha-Seong Kim makes eleven million dollars a year. Andres Gimenez, fifteen million; Geraldo Perdomo, eleven million. So then I looked back at that a little bit more, and Andres Gimenez has been a below-average offensive player by twenty to thirty percent every year since his extension, and his defense is nowhere near the level of Masyn Winn, and he’s getting paid fifteen million dollars a year. He signed it right around the same time as well. He’s twenty-seven now and currently putting up a two point four war with a seventy eight WRC plus and with less defense. So just throwing that out there, that’s where I’m comfortable with that 16 million. A lot of the people were responding with like 70 to 80, which I’m like, sure, I’ll sign on that. But then at the same time you have to convince the player that it’s worth it.

Jake Wood (22:48)
Correct. Tanks two to Tango.

Scott Plaza (22:49)
Exactly. So, and there was I don’t remember who said it earlier- but it was the Cardinals refused to extend Masyn Winn. And I don’t know if that actually was like the way that it was

Jake Wood (22:58)
It’s not accurate.

Scott Plaza (22:59)
used.

And you just don’t, and I still think Burley and potentially Walker are above Winn in the priority list. But

Jake Wood (23:07)
Correct.

Scott Plaza (23:08)
I said also today that Winn might be the easier to hammer out, to then, which somebody said easier doesn’t win championships, but when you do it for cheaper, then that gives you money to spend elsewhere, as well. So that was kind of my thought process going on with it. I just think he’s been phenomenal. He’s got the fans like him; he’s been able to be a face of the team. We just need the offense to just pop up even five percent more, and I’ll be okay with it.

Jake Wood (23:37)
Yeah, you know, I love the “easier doesn’t win championships thing.” That’s- it’s a fun little line you got there, but

Scott Plaza (23:46)
Yeah.

Jake Wood (23:46)
When it comes to, like, actual business transactions and, like, making decisions and, like, putting together a full roster, it is clear that the Cardinals defense as a whole, which is the primary, like, piece of their identity, takes a gigantic step back when you don’t have your gold glove shortstop installed out there. And so a lot of what the Cardinals are wanting to do, how they are wanting to set their defensive alignment up, it centers around and revolves around, for very obvious reasons, Mason Winn, because he’s at the very center of the diamond. He plays the most premium position; he plays it better than pretty much everybody else in the sport. So when you take all of those things into context and also add in the fact that two years ago, when we were at winter warm-up, and he was asked the direct question and he responded very openly to, like, “yeah, man, I would sign up to, you know, be here long term.” And so there is a willingness from the player; the question remains: how much would his representation and the Cardinals be willing to negotiate on how much it will it cost? It always, always, always comes down to the almighty dollar and how much you’d be willing to spend. And I kind of whenever I I to full disclosure, I haven’t read the piece yet, Scott- but whenever just asking the question, the first thought in my brain was like, Okay, how much, if I was the Cardinals, would I be willing to do? And given that he’s 24 years old right now, I would wanna start it next season, kind of eliminate all of the arbitration stuff, and I would want him for his prime. So I’m thinking about eight years, and eighty-eight to ninety-two million is probably right around the range of what, so that puts him in that eleven to twelve million dollar mix. Again, would the player be open to that? That’s long-term security. That’s generational wealth. That’s taken care of for the rest of his life. Is that enough, though? Does he think that he could get more if he like, you know, holds out, and given what the offensive production has been this year, perhaps, as representation says, you know, that’s a gamble. Is that worth, you know you taking the risk on? Because if you don’t wind up, you know, increasing your offensive output, then you’re probably not going to do better than that in terms of years. And so your overall dollars are probably never gonna match what the Cardinals are offering you. So you have to play that risk-reward for him. But I also think that at twelve million dollars, roughly like that there’s very little risk involved in that. And when you also take into account the calculation that roughly one fWar is worth about ten million dollars in total, the risk on the Cardinal side is very low because he does not have to perform, you know, extravagantly in order for them to get their worth, their value, and their surplus value out of that. And then you also take into consideration that the amount of WAR he generates just for defense alone will probably pay for that and then some. And so you would probably be getting him at a bargain rate, which his representation would probably come back and ask for a little bit more. So there would be some give and take on there. But I think eight at 88 to 92 million is probably a good starting point for him, and I would be kind of curious how they would look to work that out. But I also want to add in the caveat that Chaim Bloom was on KMOX this morning, and one of the topics was about, you know, paying for players long-term and extending them and kind of the upcoming CBA negotiations. And, you know, he kind of mentioned how they have intentionally left things open-ended because of the uncertainty that is upcoming, so that they are ready and flexible to maneuver however possible whenever they know basically what the ground rules are for building and constructing a roster, which is very smart. That a lot of these players, you don’t have to know right away what you’re gonna do with them long term. I think the Cardinals have a lot of really good ideas of who is a part of this moving forward and who isn’t, and so I think that will color a lot of their decisions as they move into the offseason. But for Masyn Winn specifically, I don’t think if they came to an agreement with him it would be something that would prevent them from doing anything else that they wanted to do. Let’s just, you know, blanket statement that all the way across.

Scott Plaza (28:09)
I also put it to the- I don’t remember if I mentioned it or not, but think about him being an eight- or nine-hitter as opposed to a five-, six-, or seven-hitter, which he’s had to be this year. And will that be a bump to the offense? I don’t know, but it should make an eighty WRC+ hurt less, assuming that everybody else progresses, which is quite the assumption to make. But having a ten to fifteen million dollar eight or nine hitter that can play out-of-this-world defense sounds different than an odd out-of-this-world defender hitting five.

Jake Wood (28:43)
Yeah, for sure. I think that this season specifically, you know, they have a saying in hockey, where it’s like they’re playing a line too high right now. And I think that where Masyn Winn has been being slotted in, from, you know, cleanup on opening day all the way to, you know, down to five, six, and that once he gets into that seven-to-eight range, I think that’s more where he belongs, at least at this current juncture of his career. Now that’s assuming that he doesn’t get to kind of the 2020 upside that I think you and I and s and and Gabe all kind of think that he’s capable of. Obviously also leaving open-ended that he hasn’t hit his peak physical prime years of his career, ages twenty-seven to thirty-two. That’s about a player’s peak physical prime. And so leaving that open, that potential there is the potential for a lot more in the tank there from an offensive perspective. But Scott, do you have any final thoughts on the Masyn Winn or anything that, like, occurred over this past week?

Scott Plaza (29:44)
No, the bullpen’s still just a bummer. And that’s the reality of the rebuild. I still don’t know how I feel about holding on to Riley O’Brien, if that was the best move or not. I don’t think in the long term it matters. I don’t know what he would have gotten in return. Like we saw Helsley get Jesus Baez, which has been phenomenal. I don’t know if Riley O’Brien gets that, so then it’s just another lottery ticket, and now we can try it again next year. I guess that’s kind of my last thought there.

Jake Wood (30:11)
I guess I, you know, on that topic, I guess that where I would come from is that I have trust, faith, and belief in Chaim Bloom and his front office group and their ability to get pieces. Like, you’d look back at this, you know, past trade deadline, and they were able to get Alexander Frias and Josiah Ragsdale for two rental-like pitchers for the card. So, like, I trust in this regime’s ability to get good returns for players that they sell. So if they’re out there marketing Riley, if they happen to market Riley O’Brien, I fully trust that they will get a really good return for him. But I also understand that in the context of bringing up Riley O’Brien, he blew up earlier today. It always hurts a little bit more when your closer is the one who gives up the game. I understand that, and I know there’s a lot of feelings and frustrations around that as well. Remember, this guy is at the top of the leaderboard and among, you know, relievers in the National League in saves.

Scott Plaza (31:05)
He was just dominant against the Reds too.

Jake Wood (31:07)
Yeah, it was just recently, so this is just the nature of a reliever being volatile. It’s ups and downs; it happens. You know, everyone just kinda takes a deep breath. They have come home, they have an off day, they’re gonna reset. I think that that’s kind of the last point I wanted to touch on with you, Scott, is like, do you think that this is like one of the most consequential off days the Cardinals have had in some time in terms of like maybe since the All-Star Break and now like leaving out how everything after the All-Star Break went, but like getting to a break to kind of reset, to kind of adjust to where they are now, and getting a chance to kind of get their feet back under them and and get off their feet for a day before they kind of go back against a couple of lesser teams than what you face in the Phillies in the Orioles and the Pirates coming up this homestand.

Scott Plaza (31:58)
Yeah, it comes at a good time, especially ’cause I just hate hearing how, you know, the bullpen’s shorthanded today. It’s like I get it, but how is it always shorthanded? You know, it just and the fact that they keep playing one-run games doesn’t help. But it’s like the Ryan Fernandez of it. Or, you know, the other guys in the bullpen, the Strzelecki’s, like, are they really concerned that somebody else is going to claim them? Or do they just know that there’s nobody else ready, to the point where they really truly need to play shorthanded this season? That’s just kind of my I don’t think it’s bad roster management. I don’t think it’s bad bullpen management. I just think it’s just the fact that they’ve had to play so many close games is th is why we notice it more than we should. But it’s just a constant story of them playing shorthanded, and that’s just it- just bugs me.

Jake Wood (32:48)
Yeah, obviously this bullpen wasn’t built for the interchange and interchangeable process that we’ve seen over the last few years. Clearly they wanted to invest and stick with a lot of under-the-radar guys who were out of options and coming into a season where you didn’t really expect to contend anyway; I think it was perfectly fine from that operating s standpoint. Now obviously, now that, like, all of the season that we’ve seen has occurred and they’re like now it may be a little bit to their detriment. Maybe, maybe wasn’t the best way to handle it, but that’s also giving the benefit of hindsight to that conversation. So I don’t, I wanna make sure I’m fair to them on that aspect as well. I like what we’ve seen out of Peter Strzelecki. I think that he’s got some funk to him. I think he presents a different look than a lot of what you see in the bullpen. When you look at Savant, a lot of his movement profiles are very above average for the arm angle that he throws at, and so the stuff moves in a very positive and intriguing way. So I kind of wonder if he’s one of those under-the-radar guys they hold on to into next season. Now, that being said, if he happens to be somebody that they let go of, I don’t think it’s the end of the world necessarily by any means, but I like, in order to bring someone else up that may be younger, more long-term driven, to say that is, I don’t think it’s the end of the world. But I also think that I he’s he’s shown some capabilities out of the pen. You know, if you think back to that home run by Dane Myers in that game, he was one
pitch away from like one of those performances where we probably still are talking about right now. Like, can you believe that Strzelecki pitched three innings and got them that win and got them that doubleheader sweep, I know the whole conversation about what has happened over this past week changes. I think there were a lot of small marginal moments where the Cardinals fell apart, and it cost them. I don’t think that they were that far off from winning a lot of these games that they had lost. Two of these games in Philadelphia specifically, they were ahead in it at one point. And so it’s kind of hard to say that they were fully out of it outside of Saturday, where, you know, Quinn Mathews unfortunately just kind of got his brain beat in pretty much from the jump. But outside of that, like they were they were in every single game, and so a lot of it came down to one or two moments in the game that didn’t go their way. Like with Matthew Liberatore, he was having a great start, and then he throws that meatball right down the middle to the wrong batter, and it cost him. There are just these and say yeah. That’s

Scott Plaza (35:16)
And sometimes you get away with those. Like, you know it

Jake Wood (35:19)
baseball. It happens. And it’s frustrating, and it’s exhausting, and especially when it’s all a lot of what we experienced in this one week, you know, for as frustrating and as frustrated and exhausted as you may feel, I can only imagine it’s ten times tenfold for those guys that are in that clubhouse right now playing and experiencing it and going through it right now. So I just to be fair to the guys that are on the field, we’re all frustrated with how it’s gone, but I don’t think that it’s the end because there’s still a five hundred T like have a five hundred record as it stands right now, and I think that going into the rest of the six weeks of the season, they have a very favorable matchups against a lot of the teams that they’re facing. I don’t see where the bottom falls out from underneath them going forward unless, like, you know, Michael McGreevy and a couple other of the starters like get injured as well, and then you just have absolutely nothing remaining in your rotation to kind of lean on to get you through the rest of the way. I don’t, unless, like, injury, of course, being the main caveat, I don’t see where the bottom falls out, and they just completely drop out of it.

Scott Plaza (36:30)
Yeah, I think there’s enough depth in the minor leagues that it’s not going to just be painful to watch. I’ll continue to say get rid of the or bring a mercy rule into baseball so we don’t have to see the think the the the lobbying of the pitches. I don’t think we’re gonna have more of that happening. We’ll probably have plenty more two of two for twelve with runners in scoring position and the five through nine spots, you know, being disappointing. But I don’t think there that we’re gonna have a reason to tune out as we might have at the end of twenty three, twenty four.

Jake Wood (37:04)
Dumb question. Instead of pitchers lobbing pitches up there, would you just set a pitching machine out there on the mound and just, like, have all nine field eight nine or nine fielders out there and just have the pitching machine go? If you don’t want to throw, would you rather see that than, like, a position player lobbing, you know, forty-eight into the batter?

Scott Plaza (37:22)
I would probably rather see the pitcher bat than s than see it that way. I mean

Jake Wood (37:27)
I mean, there’s probably a few sick-o’s out there that are just like you who feel the exact same way, so. alright.

Thank you so much for joining us for this episode of the Viva El Birdos Podcast. Don’t forget to rate and review and hit that subscribe button so you’re notified every Monday morning. For Scott Plaza, my name is Jake Wood, and we will talk to you all next week and bring you more great Cardinals content. Have a great day, St. Louis, and let’s go, Cards!

After the toughest road trip of the season saw the Atlanta Braves mostly continue an ill-timed downturn in form, the team is now back home — only to go from facing the current best team in baseball for three games to hosting the two-time defending World Series champions and current NL West leaders in the form of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The obvious hope is that Atlanta can make something happen at home against the Dodgers, who are finding their groove again after having suffered a downturn, themselves over the past few weeks. If they can do so, then they’ll have an opportunity to (hopefully) beat up on a Colorado Rockies team that has had some real struggles trying to gain a foothold at Truist Park in recent years and have just been having yet another rough season, overall.

Of course, all of this hinges on Atlanta’s lineup waking up and getting the job done at the plate. The pitching staff has been carrying a lot of the load lately but as we’ve seen, it’s very hard for this team (or any team, really) to win games if they’re only scoring one or two runs a game. Let’s see if things can change for the lineup, starting with the week ahead for Atlanta.

August 25-27: Los Angeles Dodgers

Current Record: 80-51 Projected Record (via FanGraphs): 99-63

Returning from the tough road trip that the Braves just had, just to run into the Dodgers at home feels like Odysseus returning to Ithaca only to have a bunch of angry suitors waiting for him so they can usurp the whole place. Indeed, it’s pretty rough to go from that road trip to having to deal with the newly-revitalized Dodgers, who will be coming into Atlanta rolling on a six-game winning streak.

IF there’s a silver-lining, I’d say that Los Angeles has not fared well against teams with winning records so far here in August. Again, they’re on a six-game winning streak and they’ve swept three teams this month but those nine wins came against the cellar-dwelling Royals, the moribund Rockies and a Pirates team that has spent the second half of the season fading fast. Meanwhile, Los Angeles dropped a series against the surging Red Sox, got swept by the mercurial Cubs, lost a series to the Wild Card-contending Diamondbacks and then got beaten three-out-of-four by the baseball-leading Brewers. If Atlanta plays to their potential then they are just as capable of joining those winning teams when it comes to getting their licks in on the Dodgers.

That’s not to say that the Dodgers are going to roll over just because they’re facing a winning team — these are still the Dodgers, after all. With that being said, this is a team that looks as vulnerable as ever in their quest to become the first team since 2000 to win three World Series in a row. Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers have a team wRC+ of 96 and have only hit .249/.311/.406 as a unit in that span. For comparison’s sake, the Braves have been slightly better since the break with a .247/.306/.418 slash line alongside a 98 wRC+.

Sure, Shohei Ohtani is still Shohei Ohtani and guys like Max Muncy, Andy Pages and old friend Freddie Freeman are going to be tough to deal with as usual. Outside of that, this team has looked nothing like a juggernaut at the plate. Mookie Betts has struggled mightily compared to what he usually does at the plate and it’s been just as tough for guys like Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Kyle Tucker. With the way Atlanta’s pitching staff has been going lately, this is certainly a manageable task for the Braves as long as they can keep the first guys mentioned quiet as well.

On the other side of things, LA’s pitching staff has also looked not-so-juggernaut-like in recent times. Unfortunately, that can’t be said for 2025 World Series hero and Thursday night’s starter Yoshinobu Yamaoto, who has remained very tough to deal with. Since the break, he’s given up two runs or fewer in five of his six starts and in that sixth start, he gave up three runs. He’s been incredibly consistent and has established himself as the ace of the rotation, so you can look forward to another fun ace-on-ace matchup between him and Chris Sale on Thursday. Roki Sasaki will be going on Tuesday against AJ Smith-Shawver and he’s also been pretty consistent for the Dodgers as well, so those figure to be two games where we could be seeing some low scoring with precious few runs coming across the plate for both sides.

Meanwhile, the Braves have found themselves “lucky” enough to be the opponents for Tyler Glasnow’s return from a back injury. Before his injury, Glasnow was looking very good for the Dodgers and he even has an eight-inning, one-hit shutout outing under his belt this season back on April 23. The obvious hope for Atlanta is that they’ll be able to catch Glasnow while he’s rusty (and that Bryce Elder has a good day instead of an enigmatic day) and actually give him a rude welcome back to the regular season. Otherwise, these could end up being three more games where the Braves are going to have to use more energy than a data center just to produce a one-run inning at any given moment.

Tuesday, August 25 at 7:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision, Gray TV, TBS)
Wednesday, August 26 at 7:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision, MLB Network)
Thursday, August 27 at 7:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision, FS1)

August 28-30: Colorado Rockies

Current Record: 50-80 Projected Record: 63-99

Atlanta will finally end their seven-game stretch of playing first-place teams by taking on a Colorado Rockies team that is once again having a terrible go of it. By the time the Rockies come to town, they will have likely clinched their eighth-straight losing season (and their fourteenth losing season out of the past sixteen seasons, mind you) and hopefully Washington’s strong lineup will have exhausted a Rockies pitching staff that has had a lot of trouble trying to keep any lineup in particular quiet.

During the second half, Colorado’s pitching staff is sitting on a 5.84 ERA (123 ERA-) and a 5.08 FIP (115 FIP-) as a unit and if you’re wondering if Coors Field is playing a role in inflating that number, it is not. Colorado’s staff ERA is only slightly better on the road since the break, with a road ERA of 5.48 and a road FIP of 4.83 — that ERA number is the fourth-worst mark in all of baseball and their road FIP since the break is good for the second-worst number. The Braves will likely be seeing the trio of Tomoyuki Sugano, Kyle Freeland and Ryan Feltner this weekend.

None of these fellas have been particularly great since the break and Feltner in particular has been getting bopped all over the place to the tune of a 9.10 ERA and 7.10 FIP in six starts and 28.2 innings during the second half. It’ll simply be a matter of avoiding finding themselves in a situation where Jordan Romano gets called upon since he’s quite clearly been the best pitcher for the Rockies lately — and he’s the closer.

At the plate, the only consistent threat that the Rockies have had lately is Willi Castro. I’d include Hunter Goodman in there as well but he’s been on the IL since August 15 with a left shoulder strain and it doesn’t look like he’ll be coming back in time for this series. Brett Sullivan has been on a tiny bit of a run with the bat since taking Goodman’s place behind the plate but outside of that, the Rockies don’t have too many guys who could be considered as serious threats.

Colorado’s lineup has mustered up the second-worst offense in the NL during the second half of the season and it’s not a particularly surprising development. The Rockies are basically fighting to avoid 100 losses this season and hopefully Atlanta can get them closer to that century mark with a strong performance this weekend.

Friday, August 28 at 7:15 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Saturday, August 29 at 4:10 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
Sunday, August 30 at 1:35 p.m. ET (BravesVision)

The 6 game road trip for the snakes got off to a promising start, but after a series loss in Boston that was full of endless amount of drama surrounding the team and the handling/mishandling of the Ketel Marte situation, the Diamondbacks would be greeted with a 3 game series against the last place Cincinnati Reds. Usually a series like this would be just what the team and fans would be looking forward to as a way for the Snakes to get back to their winning ways and hopefully catch back up to the Padres and Phillies, but as we saw in their series loss against the Colorado Rockies last homestand, even the bad teams try to play spoiler this time of the year and the Diamondbacks would need to take care of business now before the Chicago Cubs come to town.

What Happens In Scottsdale, Stays In Scottsdale

The drama and outrage that has surfaced from the Ketel Marte saga in Boston this last week had more gasoline poured onto the fire Friday night, as a viral social media post on both twitter and reddit showing Ketel Marte at a local Casino had some fans bringing their pitchforks and torches out yet again.

This situation was something that all 3 of us could agree had some poor optics/timing due to the recent drama up in Boston but outside of that this was a big nothing burger that some fans and media blew up to make it a bigger deal than it really was. Ketel did his rehab duties at Salt River Fields earlier in the day and checked all the boxes he needed to and was then free to go about his night however he wanted and even Torey Lovullo seemed to take no issue with how Ketel wanted to spend his evening after accomplishing everything that was asked of him. Most players that are actively rehabbing injuries (especially when they are only on the 10 Day IL) aren’t going to be in the teams dugout for games, so the outrage over Ketel being at the Casino instead of at Chase Field seemed to be coming mostly from fans that will be upset at Marte no matter what he does going forward

TawabungaDude!

Following a recap of the Snakes series win over the Redlegs, the fellas and I thought it was time to give some praise to a man that has been quietly one of the more consistent and impactful bats in this lineup over the last month and a half and that would be the utility man Tim Tawa.

Following his recall from Triple A Reno on July 5th, Tim Tawa has slashed .278/.312/.472 for a .7484 OPS and a 111 wRC+ with 7 doubles and 7 home runs in his 158 PA’s. Gabe and Brandon both mentioned that while Tim has had some growing pains in his adjustment to playing First Base, his bat coming around has been something that this offense has desperately needed as their production from that position has been in the absolute gutters for the majority of the season. The 3 of us also agreed that while he might not be the franchise 1st baseman that they have been searching for the last few years, but could keep playing his way into being the main option over there come the 2027 Opening Day (If there is one that is).

More Like Michael Sore-oka, Amirite?

After missing nearly 2 months due to a strained left glute, Soroka’s return to the rotation was something the Dbacks and fans were desperately in need of as the starting rotation outside of Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez has been so unpredictable and inconsistent. Unfortunately that return would last only 3 starts as it would be revealed after Saturday’s 11-5 loss that the Maple Maddux would once again land on the IL, this time being the 15 Day and the cause being right shoulder inflammation.

Brandon, Gabe and I talked about who we believe to be the next man up to slot into Soroka’s rotation spot. The first name to come to mind would be lefty Kohl Drake, but his struggles since being optioned back to Reno (9 ER in just 5 IP in his last 2 starts) left us wondering if names like Yu-Min Lin, Ashton Izzi, Jose Cabrera or even the Dbacks top pitching prospect and #4 pipeline prospect in David Hagaman deserve the shot instead. Lin and Izzi, along with the majority of Reno’s starters, haven’t really had strong years so they might have the same struggles that Drake did in his final few starts in the bigs, while Hagaman has only thrown 16 innings in Double A Amarillo and would be thrown into the fire maybe a bit sooner than he’s ready for.

Whoever the Dbacks call upon to take that spot, well need them to step up and do their best to provide as many quality innings as they can until Corbin Burnes or Michael Soroka can return, as this bullpen will be overused if these starters continue to fail in going deeper into these outings.

Hey, Chicago, What Do You Say

The Diamondbacks take a series win over the Reds but drop a game in the Wild Card standings due to the Padres and Phillies refusing to lose baseball games. The task of keeping up with San Diego and Philly win for win will get even tougher as the Chicago Cubs and their potential MVP in Pete Crow-Armstrong come to town for a huge 3 game set in the desert.

The Cubs have cooled down just a bit in their last 10 games (4-6 record over that time) but are still a dangerous team and we know the Cubs fans will fill up Chase Field to make it feel like a Cubs home game. Brandon had Gabe and I in agreement that if there is one player in this series that you simply can not let beat you would be superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong. Yes the Cubs have other sluggers and stars on their roster like Seiya Suzuki, Alex Bregman and even former Diamondback Carson Kelly, PCA is by far and away the best bat in that lineup and not only do you have to worry about his bat hurting you, the Snakes also have to be smart on the bases as Crow-Armstrong’s cannon of an arm and insane speed can be a game changer in the field as well.

The Dbacks will need to play like they did against the Dodgers and Braves if they want to be able to at least win this series against the Cubs, but at this rate series wins might just not be enough to keep pace in this NL Wild Card race.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Someone has to win as the Cincinnati Reds visit the San Francisco Giants to open a weekday series at Oracle Park.

The Reds have lost three straight series, three of the last four games, and are 3-7 in the last 10. The Giants are even more dismal, riding a four-game losing streak and a 2-8 mark in their last 10.

The Giants are the perfect "get well" team for Cincy. That’s why my Reds vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks have the Reds rolling as -150 favorites on Monday, Aug. 24.

Who will win Reds vs Giants today: Reds -1.5 (+114)

The Cincinnati Reds are 10.5 games better than the San Francisco Giants and have a better road record than the hosts have at Oracle Park.

The Giants are also coming off a cross-country trip after getting swept in Boston over the weekend, while the Reds are in the middle of a West Coast swing. Cincinnati is 37-30 against sub-.500 teams, while the Giants have a losing record against losing teams.

The moneyline is too steep to take the Reds straight up, so we’ll surrender the runs.

San Francisco’s last eight losses have been by an average of three runs, so it’s not a huge sacrifice.

Play to +105.

COVERS INTEL:Chase Burns has not allowed a home run in August, spanning four starts and 23 1/3 innings. Burns has a fastball velocity in the 92nd percentile in MLB, and 31 of the 70 outs he's recorded this month have come via strikeout.

Reds vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-121)

The Reds are deploying Burns against a Giants lineup that may be missing half its starters.

Matt Chapman, Marcelo Meyers, and Casey Schmidt are already on the injured list, and now Willy Adames left Sunday’s game after injuring his elbow on a swing and likely won’t play. Meanwhile, Victor Bericoto left the game after crashing into a wall. 

Bryce Eldridge will also miss this series on bereavement leave, meaning the Giants will be scrambling to assemble a lineup of bodies warm enough to swing bats, let alone compete.

The Reds have been shut out twice in the last six games and scored once or fewer five times in the last 10.

Play the Under to -130.

Reds vs Giants home run prediction: Sal Stewart (+561)

Reds first baseman Sal Stewart leads the team with 27 home runs and is two RBI shy of 100 on the year.

The Giants are starting left-hander Carson Whisenhunt, and Stewart destroys southpaws. His .291 average against lefties is 36 points higher than against righties, and his .903 OPS is 124 points higher. He homers every 16.7 at-bats against lefties, compared to every 19.3 against right-handers.

Whisenhunt has a 9.37 ERA, 2.265 WHIP, and .977 OPS against him over the last month. His barrel and hard-hit rates are both well below average, so Stewart should find something to drive against him.

Reds vs Giants weather

Oracle Park will feature winds blowing out toward center field. However, as BallparkPal notes, the effect doesn't translate to more scoring. Instead, expect swirling effects to deaden fly balls and prevent the outward wind from generating much in the way of extra scoring. Temperatures will be in the low 60s.

Reds vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: Reds -150 | Giants +144
• Run line: Reds -1.5 (+113) | Giants +1.5 (-117)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+113) | Under 7.5 (-117)

Reds vs Giants trend

The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+4.50 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Giants.

How to watch Reds vs Giants and game info

Reds vs Giants latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The final full week of August begins with one MLB wild-card race deadlocked at the playoff cut line and another featuring several contenders still within striking distance.

In the American League, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have created breathing room atop the wild-card standings. The final spot is far less secure: The Cleveland Guardians and Texas Rangers enter Monday, Aug. 24, with identical 65-66 records, leaving the projected postseason field vulnerable to changing with virtually every result.

The National League race has more separation, but hardly feels settled. The Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres currently occupy the three wild-card positions. The Arizona Diamondbacks, however, begin the week only two games behind San Diego, with the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals still trying to remain within reach.

With the regular season ending Sept. 27, every series carries greater weight for teams trying to move into the picture or protect their place in October. Here are the latest MLB wild-card standings, projected playoff matchups and key postseason races in both leagues.

MORE: Five series that could impact MLB playoff race, including final Yankees-Red Sox showdown

For a tantalizing 24-hour period, the Twins were in the playoffs after sweeping Atlanta. One weekend trip to San Diego later, and those good vibes were gone as the Friars did the sweeping. Fortunately for the Twins, all the other teams vying for that last spot in the Wild Card were similarly mediocre last week, so they only dropped a half-game out of the third wild card spot, compared to last week. This week will start easy with a trip to Sacramento to face the league-worst Athletics, and then the ChiSox will come to town hoping to solidify their hold on the AL Central crown.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• Zach Koenig reminds us of the one good memory from 2016 – Brian Dozier.
• Aidan O’Brien looks at why Twins fans should be excited about Emmanuel Rodriguez when, not if, he gets called up this season.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• Bobby Nightengale at the Star Tribune explores how the Twins could follow the Padres’ example in rebuilding trust with their fanbase.
• Dan Hayes at The Athletic looks at why the Twins were excited to trade for Dean Kremer and how that move has already been paying off.
• John Shipley at the Pioneer Press catches up with former Twin Randy Dobnak, who’s finding success with the Royals this season.
• Matthew Trueblood at Twins Daily looks at why Trevor Larnach is now in a slump.

In the World of Baseball:

• With about one month to go in the regular season, the top-four spots in the American League – barring a 2025 Mets-esque collapse – seem pretty certain, with the Rays, White Sox, Yankees, and Red Sox. After that, the Astros and Rangers keep flip-flopping for the AL West lead, and the Guardians currently hold the 3rd wild card spot, although the Blue Jays, Twins, Orioles, Mariners, and even the Tigers (along with whoever doesn’t get the AL West crown) could easily compete for that playoff spot as well.
• The National League is a bit more neat, with Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta still comfortable holding the top spots in their divisions, and then Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Diego rounding out the next three. The Diamondbacks and Marlins seem to be the only other teams really in range, although the Cardinals could surprise us.
• We’re getting close to award season, and Bradford Doolittle at ESPN looks at who the frontrunners are for the major awards.
• The 2025 No.3 overall pick, Kade Anderson, made his debut for the Mariners on Saturday and Ryan Blake at Fangraphs evaluates his start and his prospects.
• Yesterday, Atlanta and Milwaukee faced off in the Little League Classic, and Courtney Hollmon at MLB.com looks at how Michael Harris II delivered for the fans.

For most of Jacob Young’s time as the Nats starting center fielder, it was assumed that he was destined to be replaced. Young was a 7th round pick and not a very highly touted prospect. With top prospects like Robert Hassell and Dylan Crews coming, Young was just keeping the seat warm until the big boys were ready to take it away.

However, as the bigger names have stagnated, Young has only ascended. This season he is having by far the most complete year of his career. The 27 year old has always been an elite defender in center field, and that remains the case, with Young posting 12 outs above average. Progression with the bat is what has really taken Jacob Young’s game to the next level though.

This season Young has 10 home runs, a feat that was seen as unthinkable for him prior to this year. Following the Nats new hitting philosophy, Young is hitting the ball harder and in the air more often. That is allowing him to do much more damage. His .703 OPS and 95 wRC+ is more than serviceable given his glove.

The idea was that Crews and Hassell would pass Young because their bats were much better. When the new regime came in, most people thought that Crews and Hassell could be two big beneficiaries. However, it was Young’s bat that took the big step, not those highly touted prospects. 

Those two may have more natural ability, but Young seems to be outworking them. That is no knock on their work ethic, more a testament to Young. After having a dreadful offensive season in 2025, he took it upon himself to go to Driveline and totally overhaul his approach to hitting.

That has helped Young become a valuable contributor. Meanwhile, Hassell is out of the organization and Crews is still stuck in neutral. The gritty placeholder now has a firmer place in the team’s future than even Dylan Crews, who was supposed to be a franchise altering player.

In two of the last three seasons now, Young has had 2 win seasons. He may not hit the ball 112 MPH or have top 100 prospect pedigree, but at a certain point you can no longer argue with the production. Right now he is a better hitter and fielder than Dylan Crews.

This season, we have been talking more about his bat, but Young reminded us just how incredible his defense is yesterday. He scaled the wall like spiderman and made an insane acrobatic catch. I don’t think there is a better outfielder at making plays at the wall than Young. Over the past few years, he has made about a dozen plays that have genuinely blown my mind.

When you talk to Young, it is easy to see why he has overachieved his whole career. Even in post-game interviews, he is very thoughtful and curious. He seems like the type that will leave no stone unturned to get better. I remember last year when he showed up to camp jacks. It may have been misguided, but it was an example of him wanting to do whatever it takes to improve.

Seeing how far he has come at the plate just shows you how hard he is working. Last season, I thought about Young similarly to Nasim Nunez, a bench guy at best. This Barry Svrluga tweet summarized my thoughts well.

Almost exactly 12 months later, Young is having a better year than all of those guys. In my mind at least, Young has passed Dylan Crews on the outfield pecking order. Heading into 2027, I would be content with a Lile, Young, Wood outfield, which is not something I thought I would be saying entering this year.

A lot of people have taken what Jacob Young has done this season for granted, but I am not going to. He does not have flashy offensive tools, but he is a good ball player who always brings something to the table. That is more than you can say about the highly touted options who have tried and failed to unseat him.