Category: Baseball

One of the my favorite bits in Mets discourse these days is that the only part of roster building that David Stearns is actually excited about is dumpster diving for relief arms. Signing a young superstar to a record-setting contract? Boring. Trading for a potentially electric center fielder or a very affordable #2 starter? Grunt work. Digging into NPB stats to pick out some minor league guys to invite to camp? There we go, that’s the good stuff.

Enter Mike Baumann (not to be confused with Michael Baumann the Fangraphs writer). A third round pick out of Jacksonville University in 2017, Baumann was never a top prospect not even a particularly notable one; even in the dog days of the Orioles rebuild, his stuff was never good enough to merit an extended chance in the rotation, nor was he very good out of the bullpen. The Orioles eventually cut him loose during the 2024 season, and he’d wind up bouncing between not one, not two, but four other teams before heading off to Japan for the 2025 season. After 15 mediocre innings with the Yakult Swallows (where he walked 7.2 batters per nine), he’s now back stateside on a minor league deal with an invite to camp.

What did the Mets see here? Well it’s definitely not the top-line performance as we just discussed, so it must be the underlying stuff. And indeed, all the public-facing stuff models have something positive to say about Baumann’s 2024 arsenal. His knuckle-curve was scored a 67 by PitchingBot (20-80 scale), a 118 by Stuff+ (100 is average), a 122 (100 is average) by Rob Orr’s metrics, and -1.1 by Baseball Prospectus’s StuffPro (negative is better). The movement profile isn’t amazing, but he throws it hard for a curve at 87.8 MPH. You can catch a couple shots of this pitch proving to be an effective put away offering in this 2024 compilation – watch out for the Miguel Sano jump scare at the start.

Baumann also has a fastball that’s consistently graded out as slightly above average (ignoring what I assume is a calibration or small sample size issue from PitchingBot in 2024), so you can see the potential building blocks. Maybe it’s a tweak to the fastball shape to make it a more effective offering and get Baumann two above average pitches. Maybe it’s an adjustment to his mix to focus more on the knuckle curve. Perhaps it’s a new third pitch or an improvement to his current slider or changeup that makes it all work better together. It could even be that some of this has already happened in Japan last year and we just can’t see it because we don’t have the data. There are a lot of different directions this could go.

Most minor league signings of this type never amount to much – a single appearance or three in the dog days of summer, or potentially only a couple of Spring Training outings before the club goes in a different direction. The success the Mets have had recently with pitching development is infectious though, as is David Stearns’ track record with building bullpens. You almost believe that everything they touch will turn to gold. Maybe that will be the case for Mike Baumann, providing him a respite from his professional odyssey and the Mets meme creators more fuel for their most reliable bit.

With actual (spring training) games about to start, all the major prospect lists entering 2026 are in, which allows us to form a consensus of sorts. For the Dodgers prospects, the outfielders lead the way.

Josue De Paula is the top-rated Dodgers prospect at Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, and ESPN. Eduardo Quintero is the top-rated prospect in the system according to The Athletic and Baseball America. De Paula’s average prospect rank in baseball at those six sites is 18.5, with Quintero averaging 27.7.

Zyhir Hope is the other Dodgers prospect named in the top 100 at all six of those national outlets, ranging from 18th to 63rd with an average of 37.5. Mike Sirota, completing the Dodgers outfield quartet, was ranked between 34th and 60th at five of the six sites, but was outside of the top 110 at FanGraphs.

Those six sites have the longest track record of national prospect rankings, but the Dodgers outfielders lead the way elsewhere, too. Thomas Nestico at his TJ Stats newsletter ranked the four Dodgers outfielders among his top 52 prospects, while Aram Leighton had the outfield quartet among his top 41 prospects at Just Baseball.

Shortstop Emil Morales was also named to five top-100 lists, ranging between 56th and 92nd on those lists, missing out only on the Baseball America list.

Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic, and ESPN all have standard top-100 lists, while Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 101 and FanGraphs went 110 deep. But there were also a few “just missed”lists of 10 or 20extra prospects, while Kiley McDaniel at ESPN decided to also rank his 101 through 200 prospects, too.

In all, 10 different Dodgers prospects were ranked within the top 111 in baseball entering 2026. If we limit it to top 100 only, seven Dodgers were included on at least one of those lists.

Good morning! The Red Sox will play an honest-to-god baseball game today, as Spring Training is finally under way. So my question to you today is: what are you watching for in Spring Training?

For fans, Spring Training tends to be about two things: the new guys and the rookies. But in the case of the 2026 Red Sox, a few of the big new names will be off playing in the World Baseball Classic (Ranger Suárez and Willson Contreras) while another (Sonny Gray) is more of a known commodity. Meanwhile, the club doesn’t really have any unknown rookies in camp this season, though there are plenty of young guys who still have questions to answer.

So here’s what I’ll have my eye on this spring:

• Will either Connelly Early or Payton Tolle force themselves into the rotation?
• Is Johan Oviedo a diamond in the rough?
• Is Caleb Durbin better than I think? (I do not think he’s that good!)
• Will Marcelo Mayer take a step up with the bat?
• Will Kristian Campbell take a step up with everything?

Talk about what you want to see over the next six weeks or whatever else you want and, as always, be good to one another.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be rolling out a series of prospect previews for Spring Training. This week we look at one of the top arms: AJ Blubaugh.

Blubaugh was selected in the seventh round of the 2022 draft out of the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee after a solid, albeit limited, college career. In his first full professional season, he showed promise, striking out 112 batters over 100 innings. Despite a 4.41 ERA, he finished strong in Double-A with a 1.26 ERA. In 2024, he had a true breakout season, reaching Triple-A and finishing with a 3.71 ERA and 133 strikeouts over 128.2 innings, helping Sugar Land capture the Triple-A Championship.

Heading into 2025, expectations were high for continued success and a potential big league call-up. He made a couple solid starts before his MLB debut, where he allowed seven runs, two earned, over four innings. The next eight starts were a struggle, as he gave up 37 earned runs in 34.1 innings. Blubaugh regained his footing and earned a call-up in August, striking out eight over five innings in relief against Miami.

He finished the 2025 season in Houston dominant, posting a 1.69 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 32 innings while allowing just 17 hits. Blubaugh showcased a 98 MPH fastball and a devastating changeup which he didn’t allow a single hit with the pitch at the major league level, proving he has the tools to be a reliable big league arm. Blubaugh is extremely athletic and a former basketball player. Blubaugh is extremely athletic and a former basketball player, which contributes to his strong arm and agility on the mound.

Now entering 2026, Blubaugh has a legitimate opportunity to establish himself as a reliable big league arm. Read more on his 2025 season here.

With the expiration date of the current competitive bargaining agreement between the Major League Baseball Players Association and the owners looming over the end of the season like a supermoon in the sky, you can be assured that there will be lots of digital ink spilled all year long about the key negotiating issues. This is, of course, one of those pieces discussing one of the key negotiating issues. The issue at hand is arguably the central issue: that of a potential salary cap.

You all know the generalities by now. MLB is the only major American sports league without a salary cap. The MLBPA has historically resisted any form of a salary cap. The owners increasingly want a salary cap. None of this has changed. What has changed is that we’re close enough to the new CBA negotiations that we’re starting to see some actual numbers floated about. Evan Drellich, probably the most well-versed and well-connected journalist on this particular topic, included what his sources are telling him could be some realistic proposed numbers in a recent piece for The Athletic:

Whatever the owners first propose probably is not where they’d be willing to end up. A reasonable goal from an ownership perspective might be $240 million at the top and $160 million at the bottom, one source briefed on management thinking who was not authorized to speak publicly said. 

There are a lot of arguments, many of them deep and interesting, about whether a salary cap would benefit players or owners or lead to more or less competitive balance. For now, let us set these gently aside as out of the scope of our little examination. Let’s pretend that, tomorrow, the league and the union magically agreed to this exact salary cap. What’s the fallout?

To find out, I looked at Cot’s Baseball Contracts and pulled the 2026 projected Opening Day payrolls for all 30 MLB teams. For any team under the $160 million floor, I adjusted their payroll figure to exactly $160 million. For any team over the $240 million ceiling, I adjusted their payroll figure to exactly $240 million. I then put them in a fun little spreadsheet so we all can see the results:

The quick and dirty results: if MLB had implemented this particular version of the salary cap and floor, the players in aggregate would have gotten $421 million more in salary. Only six teams were above the ceiling. Meanwhile, more than double the teams—14!—were below the floor. There were as many teams at least $69 million below the floor as there were teams above the ceiling by any amount.

Sure, there are still some free agents out there, but Fangraphs’ free agent tracker lists only three players that project to get $10 million+ this year and have yet to sign: Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, and Zack Littell. And sure, this doesn’t include 40-man rosters, which cost each team a few extra million to fill out. On the other hand, a realistic scenario here wouldn’t have a whopping 14 teams at the exact $160 million floor; just a few million dollars spent above that floor for each team would cancel both things out.

So why has the union resisted if something like this would result in more money in the pockets of their members? There’s the principal of the matter, as the union likely feels it’s not their fault that teams like the Guardians, Rays, and Brewers are such incredible cheap-asses. Additionally, the union is trying to protect the earning potential for its best players. Under this scenario, the stars of the game would see their earning potential curtailed without the half dozen or so largest markets able to flex their financial muscles.

I don’t have a huge sweeping takeaway for you. The only thing I offer is the data’s perspective here, and a perhaps more subjective perspective informed by the data: if the players stay disciplined and focused, they can give the owners the salary cap that they want while securing terms that widen their slice of the revenue pie—all while catering to a public that’s generally sick of seeing big market teams push their way to the top.

As you know, Marquee Sports Network has cut back on its live game coverage this spring. The Score, now also on FM 104.3 in the Chicago area, will carry some games as well, but radio and TV coverage overlap for some dates.

I’m here to tell you that of the 33 Cubs games this spring (32 major-league games and the Spring Breakout prospect game), 26 of them will have TV or radio coverage, or both, either via the Cubs broadcast outlets or the opposing team.

So, while that’s not perfect, it’s at least most of the spring.

Here’s where you can watch or listen to those 26 Cubs games this spring. If a line is blank after the opponent’s name, that means no broadcast coverage for that game.

I’ll also post broadcast information in every game preview, including today’s. Today’s game preview will post at 12 noon CT (2:05 p.m. CT game time).

The first three games, at least, you’ll be able to watch or listen to as they all have TV and radio coverage.

Enjoy the spring!

Good morning my friends! It’s Friday and the Cactus League season is kicking off for the M’s today, who face off with the Padres at 12:10pm PT. Let’s check in on what’s happening around the league.

In Mariners news…

• Shannon Drayer gauged the temperature of Mariners’ camp as they prepare for their first Cactus League game.
• Ken Griffey, Jr. has been named a Global Ambassador for the 2026 World Baseball Classic. His duties include interviews and content creation alongside the tournament’s athletes on official social media channels.

Around the league…

• Orioles infielder Jordan Westburg is undergoing imaging for his elbow. Westburg has already been limited this spring due to an oblique injury.
• The Brewers have extended the contract of manager Pat Murphy through the 2029 season.
• The A’s are bringing longtime skipper Bob Melvin back to the organization to serve in a baseball operations role.
• The Tigers unveiled a new set of alternate jerseys for the 2026 season.
• The Guardians are planning to give Gold Glove-winning left fielder Steven Kwan some reps in center field this year.
• Derek Carty at Fangraphs proudly rolled out the brand new THE BAT X projection model for pitchers. Previously, THE BAT X only released projections for hitters.
• Davy Andrews at Fangraphs wonders which baseball players would make the best ice dancers, in which he shows some major respect for one of our favorite Mariners.

Anders’ picks…

• It was a big day for the USA in the Winter Olympics, with the women’s ice hockey team winning an overtime thriller over Team Canada in the gold medal game. Meanwhile, figure skater Alysa Liu completed a comeback for the history books to claim the first individual gold medal for an American woman in figure skating in over 20 years.
• This summer, ESPN is replacing Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts with Women’s Sports Sundays.

Morning everyone and happy Friday!

News broke yesterday that a familiar face will be rejoining the Athletics. It’s not anyone that’ll take the field but his presence is invaluable in a different way. We’re welcoming back of course former manager Bob Melvin, who will be taking on a Special Advisory role with the team he managed for 10+ seasons:

Welcome back Bob! The return of BoMel is much welcomed for a young A’s squad that is looking to take that next step forward. While none of the players that he managed with the Athletics are around anymore, the young crop that the A’s have currently surely know the history of Melvin with the franchise. When Melvin speaks, players shut up and listen because he’s been around this game longer than most of them have been alive. BoMel, as he’s affectionally known, was a players’ coach during his time donning the Green & Gold and he won Manager of the Year in both 2012 and 2018, two of the most memorable seasons in recent A’s history. Overall he went 853-764 while managing our A’s and every player he coached had nothing but roses for him.

The Palo Alto native is the second-winningest manager in franchise history (behind of course Connie Mack), but Melvin exited unceremoniously from the team after the 2021 season. That was the offseason the A’s began their tear down of the roster and, while he was still technically under contract, both team and Melvin decided that a fresh start for both sides was in the best interest of everyone involved. He had no desire to oversee another years-long rebuild and he ended up going down south to manage the win-now San Diego Padres for a couple seasons before returning to the Bay Area as the manager of the rival Giants, which was a bit of a gut punch to us A’s fans. He lasted just two seasons there though and was surprisingly canned this offseason by Giants president Buster Posey after posting a 161-163 record.

While Melvin oversaw six playoff squads, advancing deep into the postseason always proved to be a challenge for him. The A’s lost five of six of those series in the first round, only winning the 2020 Wild Card series over the Chicago White Sox but then immediately losing to the Houston Astros in the next round. His squads did put up some tough battles against the Detroit Tigers early on in his time as manager but his postseason record of 7-13 isn’t great and he was 0-3 in Wild Card games as manager of the A’s.

That’s not all of the context though. Melvin repeatedly worked within the restraints of having one of the lowest payrolls in the league and still managed to coax plenty of production out of random names and other nobodies that had been forgotten by the league. The fact that Melvin was able to put together multiple playoff rosters while dealing with an absent front office and a lack of funds from the owner for upgrades is a testament to the kind of baseball mind he has on his head. This is a huge get for the A’s organization as a whole, though fans may not exactly see the impact he’ll have.

Reportedly Melvin is preparing to take on a role that allows him to help both the front office and players. During Spring Training Melvin is going to be around so keep an eye out and you might spot him! He’ll be watching the games, giving pointers to the players, and assessing the current crop along with the front office and scouts. He won’t be among an unfamiliar group of coaches either as many know him or even worked with him in the past. That includes current manager Mark Kotsay, who was on Melvin’s staff for years before taking over for him in 2022.

Once the regular season gets underway though BoMel will be hanging out down in the minor leagues with the top prospects coming up through the system. That’ll be a new experience for him as he’s been a major league coach for the past 27 years and hasn’t been able to see minor leaguers much up close before they arrive. Melvin will be a key voice for General Manager David Forst when it comes to promotions for those players. If they get his voice of approval, it’ll be hard to keep them down long.

“It means a lot,” Melvin said, of returning to the A’s. “I’m just going to try to help out however I can. The easy part for me is the familiarity with the people in the organization.”

Melvin is going to slide right back in almost like he never left. After a few years of bouncing around, returning to a familiar team in the A’s will be a breath of familiar air for him. And the A’s are all the luckier to have such an important baseball mind around.

Have a great weekend everyone! Baseball is back!

A’s Coverage

• Bob Melvin returning to Athletics as special advisor
• Can The A’s Young Core Turn Defense Into a Strength?
• Pesky Drawback Of “Closer By Committee” (It Never Really Works)
• Athletics Community Prospect List: Cole Miller Lays Claim To #15
• Can Kurtz get his glove to match his monster bat?
• Zack Gelof: Outfielder?
• Athletics 2026 Top MLB Prospects Deep Dive
• Waiting For Gelof: What Do We Do?
• “Relievers Are Volatile”… But Why?
• Are The Final Two Rotation Spots Really Up For Grabs?
• Story Lines To Watch As Spring Training Unfolds

MLB News and Interest:

• Orioles’ Jordan Westburg ‘physically unable to participate’ at camp
• Brewers sign manager Pat Murphy to contract extension
• Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan to get center field reps during spring
• MLBPA elects Bruce Meyer as interim executive director
• Is this the most stacked, competitive division in baseball?
• Buster Olney ranks top-10 first basemen for 2026
• Former A’s starter Chris Bassitt calls out MLB in blunt comments
• Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz plead not guilty in pitch rigging case
• Each team’s top projected player for 2026
• Dodgers righty Brusdar Graterol to miss beginning of season
• Rays right-hander Edwin Uceta undergoing tests on shoulder
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

It’s not too late for Kotsay to join in on the WBC fun:

Possible closer versus starting first baseman:

We would all more than welcome that. Needs to figure out lefties first:

Higher hopes for the left-handers coming up:

5. Jared Thomas (476 points, 19 ballots)

Thomas went 42nd-overall to the Rockies as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2024, signing for an under-slot $2 million. He got that bonus due to excellent bat-to-ball skills, some emerging power, and above-average speed that gives him a high floor offensively. The 22-year-old, 6’2” lefty spent most of his time defensively at Texas (where he played alongside fellow PuRP Max Belyeu) playing first base, but he has split his time in center and left field as a professional, with slightly more time in left.

After a freshman year at Texas where he hit a strong .321/.398/.484, Thomas traded some contact for power for his draft year. Though his strikeouts increased from 15% to 21% of his plate appearances, Thomas also saw his home runs quadruple from four to 16 — a part of an increase in slugging percentage of 151 points. His 2024 college line in 291 PA was .349/.435/.635 with 35 extra-base-hits, and he was a perfect 18/18 on steals.

A strong 2024 cameo in Low-A Fresno (146 wRC+) was cut to only eight games when Thomas went down with a quad injury, but the Rockies saw enough to bump Thomas up to High-A Spokane to begin 2025 (he was 1.3 years younger than league average). In Spokane, Thomas absolutely raked, hitting .330/.427/.495 with 11 homers among his 25 extra-base hits and going 22/24 on steals in 342 plate appearances (147 wRC+). His batting average led the Northwest League while his OBP was third and his OPS was fourth.

The Rockies promoted Thomas on July 1st to Double-A Hartford, where he was 2.5 years younger than league average. Facing upper-minors pitching, Thomas cooled down a bit, hitting a still respectable .245/.347/.374 with three homers among his 14 extra-base hits and 11 steals in 191 plate appearances, which is a 113 wRC+. Thomas struck out in 35% of his Double-A PA and had a decently large platoon split, producing a .726 OPS against lefties vs. a .874 OPS against righties (with a large home/road OPS split of .989/.696 as well). In the field, Thomas committed all six of his errors in left field but had four of his seven outfield assists from center field.

Thomas ended 2025 with a stint in the Arizona Fall League, during which he hit .302/.343/.524 with two homers (including a grand slam) among his nine extra-base hits with eight steals in just 67 plate appearances, but unfortunately a broken hamate bone ended his time in the AFL prematurely.

Here’s some video of Thomas at Fresno in 2024, including some slo-mo looks at the swing in the back half:

Baseball America recently ranked Thomas third in the system (so did Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com) and project him to be the starting left fielder in 2029:

The 6-foot-2, 190-pound Thomas is an average athlete who moves well for his size. He began his pro career playing primarily center field, but when he moved to Hartford, he slid to left field, which is a better long-term fit. Thomas’ move to Double-A also exposed the key area of concern: swing-and-miss issues, particularly against better sequencing and breaking stuff. Still, when he makes contact, it is often loud contact—supported by consistently high exit velocities and quality barrel rates.

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Thomas 80th before the draft and he ranked Thomas 9th in the system earlier this month:

Thomas can show you easy plus power — he hit a ball in the Arizona Fall League that probably hasn’t come down yet, putting it in the Charro Lodge in right field at Scottsdale Stadium, with an EV of 111 mph — but he doesn’t hold it through the year, wearing down in the second half before he got a break between the regular season and the AFL. He needs to keep that strength and muscle, and needs to really tighten up his approach; he misses a little too much in zone and swings a little too much at stuff out of zone, enough to add up to a 34.5 percent strikeout rate in Double A last year. He broke a hamate bone in the AFL, so his power may not be there when he returns this spring. There’s an everyday center fielder package here, somewhere, but he’s got to hit enough to get to it and show he can maintain that power through a whole season.

MLB Pipeline, who ranked Thomas 60th in their draft rankings, slotted Thomas 8th in the org as a 45 FV player with a 55 Hit, Run, and Arm grade last year:

Thomas showed off what a good feel he has for his left-handed swing. He has the chance to really hit at the next level, routinely finding the barrel and not trying to do too much. There’s some sneaky pop in there, and as he showed during his sophomore year, he can sacrifice a little contact for pop without completely selling out for it.

Thomas is a pretty good athlete who runs better underway and has the ability to play multiple positions. He played more first than anywhere else with the Longhorns, but showed he could capably handle center field as a sophomore and the Rockies will likely work him at all three outfield spots during his first full year of pro ball. He’s already opened some eyes across the industry as the Rockies were getting calls about him from other teams.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had Thomas 48th among draft prospects and ranks him 11th in the system at midseason as a 40+ FV player (up from 40 FV preseason) with a 60 future raw power grade:

Thomas has an ideal baseball frame at a super projectable 6-foot-2; he has above-average power to both gaps and is going to grow into more. His dynamic low-ball swing plays best when Thomas’ bat path is vertical; it tends to be too long when he has to flatten it out to catch fastballs away from him. His power can be neutered in the down-and-away part of the strike zone. Barring the shortening up of Thomas’ swing, what were average college contact rates will likely translate to below-average rates in pro ball, but he might grow into enough power for that to be alright. At Texas, Thomas played center field, left field, and first base. His reads in the outfield aren’t very good and unless they improve, his arm forces him to left. Thomas only has the two years of college experience, so it’s worth a shot to continue things in center for at least a little while, and the Rockies played him in left and center during his brief pro debut. Thomas’ realistic ceiling is as a power-over-hit 1B/LF platoon bat, and he requires a little more projection than is typical of a college hitter.

Shaun Kernahan of Three Quarter Slot wrote up Thomas after his AFL performance:

Smooth, compact left-handed stroke defines his game, producing consistent line drives and easy backspin from a polished, advanced approach. Thomas shows exceptional bat-to-ball skill and an ability to adjust mid-count without losing balance or intent, attacking hittable pitches with controlled aggression. The swing works gap-to-gap with emerging power that projects to reach average at peak, giving him a steady offensive profile built on timing and rhythm rather than raw strength.

A steady athlete with strong instincts, he moves well once underway and offers defensive flexibility across the outfield and at first base. He’s capable of handling corner outfield spots and even center in a pinch and has seen plenty of time at first where he is a quality defender. Advanced strike-zone awareness and refined baseball IQ give him a professional polish that fits neatly in Colorado’s system. The contact ability, approach maturity, and defensive versatility make him a high floor prospect for the team in the mile high city.

Thomas has progressed beyond my expectations for him in 2025, already producing at an above-average level in Double-A just a year after getting drafted. If that pace continues, it’s possible he could be a big league factor as soon as this season if he can distinguish himself from the Rockies’ outfield mob. Thomas’s ability to at least fake it in center field could be useful in setting him apart, but of course it’s going to be the bat that carries him to big league success. I was encouraged by how Thomas performed in his first professional season and ranked him fifth on my list as a 45 FV player (just behind Robert Calaz).

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Rotation battles aren’t always super-interesting when you’re projected to threaten triple-digit losses for the fourth straight year. But they’re always happening! Here are some thoughts and ideas about how the spring might change what this year’s Opening Day starting five looks like. 

Absolute, 100% Locks

Shane Smith
In a way, Smith is the reason for this whole exercise. The point is that no matter how much you think you know, you never know. A year ago ago, most of us were operating under the assumption that Smith would likely as not be returned to Milwaukee by the time the rosters got set.

Something I always look for when a young player appears to break out is how they respond after the league has adjusted to their initial outburst. We saw it in action with Smith last year, as I think most of us knew we would. Even with the 2.37 ERA he carried into June 17 last year, the way he subsequently got torched for 25 earned runs over his next 22 2/3 innings brought us to a crossroads as to whether Smith was just another flash in the pan.

Fortunately, Smith responded. Just as much as his electric start to 2025, the reason he’s a lock for a 2026 rotation spot is because of how he finished, running a 3.09 ERA while averaging 5.5 innings per start in 10 starts down the stretch. He’ll enter camp as the frontrunner to take the ball on Opening Day, probably no matter how he looks in March.

Anthony Kay
Kay is being paid $15 million over two seasons to soak up starts in the middle of the rotation, and hopefully do it well enough that he’ll either fetch a worthwhile trade return or perhaps even incentivize the White Sox to extend him at a reasonable rate. So, that’s exactly where he’s going to be. No competition to see here.

Seem certain, but you really just never know

Sean Burke
Lock seems like quite a strong label for Burke right now, but I came about THIS close to putting him in that category pretty much solely because of this:

I dare you to raise your hand if you thought Burke was capable of doing that before seeing it with your own eyes. Let’s do one more, for good measure:

Smith stole all the headlines early in the season, but among the all the Sox young starters Burke was quietly the most solid over the bulk of the season, pacing the rotation (sans Houser) with a 3.96 ERA over 86 1/3 innings from May 23 on. Promisingly, it was accompanied by an above-average 26.5% strikeout rate and manageably subpar 9.5% walk rate. His arsenal might not be quite as sharp, but I’d argue Burke flashed about as much upside as Smith last season. For that reason, I actually think he’s more of a lock to walk out of camp with a job than the below.

Davis Martin
I’ve long been the conductor of the Davis Martin Hype Train™, but it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world to me if he’s not quite the lock he’s been reported to be. It’s still a very, very safe bet he’ll open the year taking turns in the rotation for the second straight year, and I’m perfectly happy about that. Still, questions linger.

The resumé and argument for having him as a clear-cut starter is pretty basic. Save a brief stint on the injured list in June, Martin is one of the few members of this roster who’s made it through an entire big league season taking turns in the rotation. He led the team at five-and-a-half innings per start in 2025, and did it while delivering an almost perfectly league-average 4.10 ERA. As of now, there’s no real reason that shouldn’t earn a place to start on the 2026 White Sox.

As of now is the only reason he’s here. While Burke has cranked it up to nearly triple-digits, Martin topped out at 97 mph in 2025. Smith and Burke will be 26 this season, while Martin will pitch the year at 29. If the team’s pitching operation thinks they can get another tick or two of velocity out of Martin in short bursts, he strikes me as a candidate for an on-the-surface unexpected move to the bullpen. A Davis Martin who can hit 98 with multiple secondary pitches over a couple of relief innings might be well more valuable over the next two or three years than a superfluous No. 4 starter. If we see another pitcher with a Smith-type emergence out of nowhere next month, Martin to the pen might suddenly be a more realistic possibility than it would feel right now.

Erick Fedde
I’m trying to convince myself that Fedde is here simply as an insurance policy in case virtually no other young or veteran arms show themselves to be worthy of a rotation spot after some innings in Arizona. Then again, he’s got a $1.5 million major league deal, so again, what else is Fedde doing here if he’s not going to get a shot in the major league rotation? With a year-and-a-half in the rear-view mirror, the 6.5% walk rate Fedde posted with the Sox in 2024 looks pretty solidly like a mirage. If his command of the zone in spring still looks like it has for the large majority of his career, it’s hard seeing there being much justification for putting him in the mix. (Not that that’s ever stopped the Sox before.) Still, the MLB deal and the fact that Fedde and the current staff have an affinity for each makes me think he might have a leg up here that I’m not in love with.

Fifth/Sixth Starter Battle Royale (Veterans)

Sean Newcomb
If Fedde just can’t cut it, Newcomb is probably the next man up as far as veteran presences go. It makes sense that with the team looking to take a substantial step forward in 2026, they’d upgrade on their Bryse Wilson acquisition from 2025, tapping Newcomb to be a quintessential swingman. Newcomb made five starts and averaged almost two innings per outing as a reliever in 2025, and unlike Wilson in his platform year Newcomb was actually successful, running a 2.73 ERA along the way. The team has said it’ll give him a chance to start, and Newcomb almost certainly will pick up some starts over the course of the season. But if he shows enough in the spring to hint that his 2025 relief performance might actually translate to a full-time starting role, Newcomb might have the inside track on a final rotation spot in any real competition.

Jonathan Cannon
Jonathan Cannon is still here! Last year’s showing was not pretty, for sure, and he was the clear loser of last year’s four-man derby among himself, Smith, Martin, and Burke for the inside track at the 2026 rotation. Still, his arsenal remains intriguing, and he’s still young. It’s not out of the question that with some offseason tweaks, Cannon could come barging into Spring Training looking like a guy who very much deserves a shot.

It happens seemingly every year or two, where Spring Training reveals an elite talent that was previously thought to be lost, or even non-existent. In 2021, Carlos Rodón entered camp a changed man. Dylan Cease was visibly ready to make the leap in 2022. Garrett Crochet was a revelation in 2024. Last season gave us Smith, of course. Cannon lacks the pure upside of any of those names, but the point stands. Spring Training is full of surprises, and Cannon could be one of them.

Mike Vasil
Vasil was the first pure reliever to break 100 innings pitched with fewer than four starts since Tony Peña did it for the White Sox in 2010 (Jalen Beeks broke 100 innings in 2019, though he primarily worked for Tampa Bay as a bulk “starter” following an opener). As such, given that Vasil posted a 2.50 ERA while doing it, it makes sense that he’d be stretched out and given a chance as a starter. It’s also a given that most peripheral numbers say that ERA was very lucky, and also a given that Vasil has simply proven himself to be effective out of the bullpen. If he can come into camp and show that he can meaningfully cut down his 12% walk rate from 2025 while holding his velocity at 94-95 for four or five innings at a time, Vasil has a chance at being a surprise inclusion in the Opening Day five. The last thing that’s also a given, though, is that now that he’s spent his Rule 5 year fully on the roster, he has an option year remaining. The most likely outcome is that if Vasil shows some promise as a starter, he’ll open the year in Charlotte’s rotation to see if he can get acclimated and work out the kinks. But hey, you never know!

Jordan Hicks
Every indication is that Hicks is going to pitch out of the bullpen, but I’m leaving him here just because Brian Bannister was the one running the pitching show in San Francisco when they surprisingly signed Hicks to be a starter in 2023. That being said, if Hicks winds up starting more than a low single digit number of games in 2026, a lot of things have probably gone wrong. 

Fifth/Sixth Starter Battle Royale (Young Wild Cards)

David Sandlin/Tanner McDougal
Neither of these guys have the upper-minors experience you see out of typical rotation candidates, but the modern game has increasingly leaned towards eschewing the traditional minor league ladder, especially when it comes to pitching. You only have so many bullets in your arm, the thinking goes. If a guy might be ready, why not spend those bullets where it matters most?

Again, I’d be pretty surprised if we make it halfway through spring games before word (or video) starts spreading of somebody looking completely reinvented. If it should be one of these two, there might not be any sense in giving them the cursory Triple-A look before tossing them out there against big leaguers to see if they’ll swim. 

Hagen Smith/Noah Schultz
The only thing that separates the two lefties from those two above is that their pedigree and upside is high enough that you probably don’t want to risk throwing them off the deep end into the major leagues. That being said, everyone knows that the stuff being big-league caliber isn’t the question. If either of these two comes into camp looking like something’s clicked with their command and repeatability in their mechanics, they’ll still probably be asked to work through a few tune-up starts in the high minors. But again, this is the modern game, and with pitching, anything goes. If Hagen Smith is magically filling up the strike zone all of a sudden when we first see him, the list of reasons to keep him down becomes thin. 

That’s about the biggest what-if you can imagine, which is why it’s at the bottom of this list.

Have at me in the comments. I know we’re all looking forward to seeing what things look like a month from now.

These articles are a part of a series and are designed to be consumed as an entire series, but I know we get new readers every day. So, we will reset the conversation to the beginning. This series is about looking at specific underlying numbers to get a handle on what hitters might do in the coming season. The idea is to avoid magical thinking whenever possible. Magical thinking is simply taking the most positive outlook on a player, team, or situation and assuming that is the likely result.

Could Christian Walker bounce back and have a year close to what he produced in Arizona? Sure, it’s possible. Could Isaac Paredes do what he did last year, but do it over 150 games? Sure, it’s possible. However, what we want to do is look at is most likely. When we look at the underlying numbers, we get an explanation for why things turned out the way they did. We also get a sneak peek at what categories players could target improvement in. Before we get to that though, we need a quick tutorial on the numbers we will use.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives between 30 and 32 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.
• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.
• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.
• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 70-75 percent is around league average.
• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.

Christian Walker

I hate to oversimplify everything, but there are essentially three tools at play here. The first tool is the plate discipline tool. It is simply the ability to distinguish between balls and strikes. Walker is above average in that category, but showed some slippage last season. He seemed to have slower bat speed last season, but came into camp this year ten pounds lighter. Does that help him up that bat speed? If so, he might have that extra split second to lay off of pitches outside the zone like he did in 2023 and 2024.

The second tool is the ability to hit for power. You do that through your hard hit rate and home runs per flyball rate. Walker is close to elite in this category. He generates more power and hits more home runs per flyball than most of the hitters in baseball. There are isolated guys better in the hard hit category and home run category, but he is really strong there.

The last category is the ability to make contact consistently which scouts call the hit tool. This is where we saw major slippage. The scouting report says he struggled to catch up to heat on a consistent basis. However, Walker was never gifted in this department. He has always had swing and miss in his game. If he could return to career norms in both contact rates and chase rates he could elevate himself back to where he was in Arizona. However, given that he is entering his mid thirties that might prove harder than it sounds.

Isaac Paredes

What’s interesting about Paredes is that he plays up in certain ballparks. The lack of hard hit contact limits his effectiveness unless he has that short porch to left field. In 2024 he went to the Cubs and practically disappeared. Like Walker, he is good at two of the three tools. He recognizes balls and strikes and is also elite at putting the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit the ball hard, so he will always struggle to hit for average even with those contact rates.

Of course, the difficulty and difference between the scouting world and the analytical world is that the scouting world treats all tools equally. He has the plate discipline tool and a portion of the hit tool (the contact portion), He has the power portion in certain ballparks. Yet, that plate discipline is an elite tool and creates value maybe more than his inability to make hard contact hurts him.

There are fewer and fewer dunces in MLB, so general managers know all of this. So, this presented Dana Brown with a challenge because it meant finding a team that needed a third baseman/first baseman who also had a home ballpark that would suit Paredes. Ironically, the same could be said for Walker as well because he plays up in ballparks with short left field porches. Generally, it is a good thing to have players that are more valuable to you than other teams, but that always presents a problem when you try to move them. So, what do you think? Can we expect a bounce back season from Walker? Will Paredes stay healthy and productive?

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Japan has dominated the World Baseball Classic, winning three of the five tournaments held since 2006.

However, it’s the United States that far and away leads the World Baseball Classic odds, and with the roster it boasts, it’s not a surprise.

My World Baseball Classic prediction and betting picks break down my favorite plays for the 2026 tournament at prediction markets like Kalshi.

World Baseball Classic prediction

On Kalshi, a contract trading at 22 cents translates directly to a 22% implied probability of Japan winning the World Baseball Classic. In betting terms, you are essentially "buying" a win for $0.22 to receive $1.00 if Japan succeeds. This equals +355 when converted into traditional American odds.

Who will win the 2026 World Baseball Classic at prediction markets?

There is a reason the United States is trading at this high level. The Americans have a stacked lineup led by Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr.

The rotation features arguably the two best pitchers in baseball in Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, and the bullpen is a nightmare for opposing teams with Mason Miller and David Bednar. 

That said, the United States has won the World Baseball Classic just once, and it is not the only stacked roster in this tournament. This makes it difficult to get behind Team USA at this price, given other teams like Japan and the Dominican Republic.

My prediction: Japan (22 cents)

Japan's roster is among the deepest in the world, blending MLB superstars with the elite of Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). While Shohei Ohtani will focus exclusively on hitting this time, his presence as a four-time MLB MVP provides a psychological edge. Behind him, the pitching staff is terrifying: Fellow Dodger Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the 2025 World Series MVP, anchors a rotation that includes young phenoms like Hiroto Takahashi and Sawamura Award winner Hiromi Itoh.

Japan benefits from eight MLB players, including Munetaka Murakami (White Sox) and Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays), both of whom recently made the jump to the Big Leagues. With the first round and quarterfinals taking place at the Tokyo Dome, Japan enjoys a massive home-field advantage where they historically rarely lose. 

Their disciplined defense and situational hitting make them a nightmare in a single-elimination format, and with 15 returning members from the 2023 championship squad, their veteran composure is unmatched.

My sleeper prediction:Dominican Republic (19 cents)

The Dominican Republic can make the case that it has the best lineup in this tournament, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto leading the way. If Cristopher Sanchez and Sandy Alcantara can anchor the pitching staff, the DR has the best value among the true contenders and is the team you should keep your eye on.

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Eagles win this Sunday?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer prediction markets model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.

Why should I wager on the World Baseball Classic at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

1. Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
   
   
2. Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
   
   
3. Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
   
   
4. Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning, LSB.

Evan Grant has a live Q&A up in which he answers a bunch of Rangers spring training questions.

Grant also has another version of his Rangers roster protection.

Kennedi Landry writes about the prospect of Wyatt Langford, MVP candidate.

Jeff Wilson has some names of young pitchers impressing in Arizona.

Speaking of, Gavin Collyer is throwing gas out of the pen and garnering some early attention.

Evan Carter’s goals for 2026, unsurprisingly, revolve around health.

And Jayson Stark has a list of MLB front offices with the heat turned up to start 2026.

That’s all for this morning. Smell ya later.

The Royals announced they have signed former All-Star catcher Elias Díaz to a minor league deal. Díaz spent 106 games with the Padres last year and hit .204/.270/.337 with nine home runs.

The Venezuelan-born Díaz began his career with the Pirates in 2015, but was non-tendered after the 2019 season. He signed on with the Rockies, where his bat blossomed. He socked a career-high 18 home runs in 2021, and was named an All-Star in 2023 when he hit .267/.316/.409 with 14 home runs. His power dropped the next year and the Rockies released him in August to save some money. The Padres picked him up and he made a postseason appearance for him that fall, and he returned to serve as a backup catcher for them in 2025.

The 35-year-old right-hander isn’t much with the bat anymore, but he has one of the quickest pop times in baseball behind the plate. He threw out 23 percent of would-be basestealers last year, and rates well in blocking and framing metrics.

The Royals may be looking for a veteran catcher to carry on the roster behind Salvador Perez and Carter Jensen to allow them to play one of those players at first or DH. The team already signed veteran Jorge Alfaro, who was teammates with Díaz in Colorado in 2023. They also signed Luke Maile, although he has not been in camp for personal reasons.

The San Diego Padres are set to open their Spring Training schedule with a contest against the Seattle Mariners today. It will be the first opportunity for the Friar Faithful to see the 2026 players in action. There are competitions at first base, designated hitter and the starting rotation, which should make for compelling performance as spring progresses. Tat will come later, but during the first game of spring it will be nice to hear the crack of the bat and the pop of the glove that are universal signals to baseball fans that Opening Day is not far away.

Padres News:

• Prior to the flurry of moves less than a week ago, Padres fans were asked how they felt about the offseason for San Diego in a Padres Reacts Survey in mid-January. Gaslamp Ball asked the Friar Faithful if their feelings about the offseason have changed after multiple signings and the A.J. Preller extension.

• The San Diego minor league system took a lot of criticism in recent polls and was even considered the worst farm system in baseball by some. Despite that, AJ Cassavell of Padres.com believes there are four young Padres to watch during Spring Training. Cassavell also lists four position battles to watch as San Diego begins their Cactus League season.

• Craig Stammen is no stranger to Spring Training with the Padres in Peoria, Ariz. The difference this season is he will be the one calling the shots as he makes his first appearance at the helm of the Padres when they take on the Mariners later today.

• Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune took a side trip through Yuma, Ariz. on his way to Peoria, Ariz. the Padres spent 25 years training in Yuma and even trained there in 1969 when the team started leaving behind some memories of years and teams past.

• Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune believes German Marquez is reinvigorated after signing with he Padres and believes he can make an impact in the rotation he also has notes about the ABS challenge system and the San Diego approach to Ethan Salas.

• Dennis Lin of The Athletic provides his first roster projection of Spring Training and asks if the Padres have improved depth or if they are just spinning their wheels.

Baseball News:

• Pat Murphy and the Milwaukee Brewers agreed to a three-year contract extension.

• Jordan Westburg of the Baltimore Orioles is physically unable to participate in Spring Training following an oblique injury he suffered previously in Spring Training.

•  Steven Kwan of the Cleveland Guardians has won four Gold Gloves as a left fielder. It was announced Thursday that he could see time in center field.

• The Tampa Bay Rays have announced Drew Rasmussen will be their Opening Day starter.