NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 07: Max Fried #54 of the New York Yankees reacts after giving up a home run to Victor Mesa Jr. #25 of the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning in game three of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium on October 07, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) | Getty Images
This afternoon, Brian Cashman spoke with reporters at the GM meetings in Las Vegas, revealing among other tidbits that that Max Fried recently underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his throwing elbow. The left-hander will be able to resume throwing at some point in December and is expected to make a full recovery in time for spring training.
Fried experienced issues with his throwing arm throughout the 2026 season. He first hit the injured list in mid-May after suffering a bone bruise in his elbow in a start against the Orioles. He returned in July but only lasted about a few weeks back in the rotation before another bone bruise landed him on the IL again in mid-August. That trip to the IL was described as more precautionary than anything at the time, and indeed Fried was activated in September and was fully stretched out by the time the playoffs rolled around.
Even as Fried’s throwing arm proved troublesome, he managed to produce when on the field. Fried posted a 2.80 ERA and 2.65 FIP in 2026, both slight improvements on his stellar 2025 debut campaign with the Yankees, albeit in just 112 innings this year.
You never want to hear that your ace needs surgery, but the fact that Fried has avoided major injury, all while pitching at a high level when active, suggests he could be even better when he returns in 2027. Of course, his expectation of being back for spring training is complicated by the fact that we have no idea when spring will even start next season. In any event, whenever the season starts, the Yankees will expect a healthy and elite version of Fried.
No Japanese pro team scouted Teruaki Sato out of high school.
Now, he's Japan's Triple Crown winner and he has three weeks to land an MLB contract.
Sato, 27, won the Central League Triple Crown for the Hanshin Tigers this season, hitting .306 with 39 homers and 106 RBIs, a year after he was named league MVP. No Japanese-born Tiger had ever done it. Hanshin posted him for MLB teams Nov. 1, and USA TODAY Sports' Bob Nightengale said Sato might be the top position player in a weak free agent class. The New York Yankees, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Detroit Tigers have all been lined to him.
Front offices are in Las Vegas this week for the general manager meetings, the first big stop of the offseason.
Here's who Sato is, how good he is and which teams are really interested in him.
Who is Teruaki Sato?
Sato grew up in Nishinomiya, the city that's home to Koshien Stadium, rooting for the Tigers. He hit 15 homers as a senior at Nigawa High School, and the pros still passed on him. Kindai University did not. He moved from left field to third base in college and set the Kansai Big Six league record with 14 homers as a senior and won two league MVP awards.
Japan's draft doesn't work like MLB. In the first round, teams don't pick in order. Every team names the player it wants at the same time, and when more than one names the same player, they draw lots for him.
In 2020, four teams named Sato. He went to his hometown Hanshin Tigers.
As a rookie in 2021, he hit 24 homers and struck out 38% of the time. He became the first left-handed hitter in Japanese pro history to open a career with three straight 20-homer seasons. Then he slumped badly enough in 2024 to get sent down for 17 games.
Sato grew into the game. In 2025 he hit 40 homers with 102 RBI, and the home run and RBI titles, the MVP award and a Golden Glove at third base.
This year, he added the batting title. He hit .306/.383/.609 in 143 games, led the league with 165 hits and finished four homers ahead of teammate Shota Morishita. He's the ninth player in Japanese pro history to win a Triple Crown and the first since Munetaka Murakami in 2022. The only other Tiger to do it is Randy Bass (1985 and 1986).
Sato is the first reigning MVP position player to join MLB since Hideki Matsui in 2003.
Sato bats left, he throws right and is listed at 6-1, 207 pounds. He turns 28 in March.
How good is Teruaki Sato?
His raw numbers undersell him. Central League hitters batted .236/.301/.350 this season, and teams averaged 3.40 runs a game. Sato hit .306/.383/.609 in 143 games. Sato also plays his home game at Koshien, one of Japan's best parks for pitchers.
According to MLB.com, Sato's swing averages close to 75 miles per hour, which would rank him among MLB's top 50 hitters. His exit velocity matched Shohei Ohtani's mark in 2026.
"When he hits them, he hits them really hard," said an MLB scout who has evaluated Sato and spoke on the condition of anonymity because he isn't authorized to discuss players publicly.
The scout called Sato's raw power "definitely above average," though not Murakami's.
The concern is that he misses a lot.
Japanese baseball analyst Yuri Karasawa found that Sato swings more than nearly any notable hitter in Japan over the past five years. He made contact on 66% of his swings this season. The MLB average is 77%.
"In-zone fastball misses are an issue," the scout said.
His glove is the other question. He won a Golden Glove at third base in 2025, but some have speculated that Sato will have to move to a corner outfield or first base in the future. The scout who spoke to USA TODAY Sports thinks Sato can stay at third with work, and noted that he has played corner outfield before and runs well enough to handle it.
"I do like Sato," the scout said, "but he comes with the Murakami risk."
The Chicago White Sox took that risk last winter with Murakami and gave him a two-year, $34 million deal. Then he went out and hit 35 homers as a rookie while batting .207 and striking out 35.4% of the time. Kazuma Okamoto signed for four years and $60 million with the Toronto Blue Jays and hit 33 homers with 92 RBI.
There are plenty of teams that were kicking themselves this season for passing on Murakami.
Which MLB teams want Teruaki Sato?
The Yankees have the clearest need. Ryan McMahon hit .213 with 11 homers and a .635 OPS at third base this season. They have expressed concern about whether Sato can remain at third base internally.
The Mets looked like the favorite for months. President of baseball operations David Stearns flew to Japan to scout Sato in person after the Mets' season ended. Then Bo Bichette opted into his $42 million salary for 2027.
The Phillies need a third baseman with Alec Bohm a free agent. The Detroit Free Press, part of the USA TODAY Network, reported that the Tigers have scouted Sato. The Dodgers, Red Sox and Padres have been linked to him, too.
Will Teruaki Sato sign before the MLB lockout?
Players posted from Japan normally get 45 days to sign. Sato's window opened Nov. 2 and would run through Dec. 16.
It won't get that far. The collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 ET on Dec. 1, and a lockout freezes every signing. The league has said it will not pause the posting window this time.
The last lockout went the other way. In 2021-22, MLB froze Seiya Suzuki's window for all 99 days of the lockout and he signed for five years and $85 million with the Cubs once it ended
Chicago Cubs pitcher Ben Brown underwent successful cervical spine surgery Monday, according to a source familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Brown is expected to start a throwing progression in the new year, and the hope is he will be ready for game action during the first half of the 2027 season.
So, this can probably be viewed as good news. Brown had a neck issue in 2024 that apparently was mis-diagnosed, and it recurred last summer and finally the team got a proper diagnosis:
When the issue recurred in 2026, the original diagnosis of a stress reaction in his neck was confirmed. The surgery was a proactive procedure involving Brown’s C5 vertebra, done with the belief that it would speed up healing in the area.
Brown was having a breakout season as a starter when this issue ended his season in June. After a rough outing in relief on Opening Day against the Nationals, when Jacob Young hit the very first 2026 pitch thrown by Brown for a home run, Brown posted a 1.67 ERA and 0.928 WHIP and allowed just one more home run among 252 batters faced, and struck out 62. He was beginning to anchor the rotation at the time of the injury.
Based on this report, Brown could be back early in 2027, and who knows? If the upcoming lockout does cancel games, maybe he won’t miss any games at all. As always, we await developments.
DETROIT, MI - APRIL 5: Jojo Romero #59 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches against the Detroit Tigers during the sixth inning at Comerica Park on April 5, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We live in a world where many things don’t make sense. The St. Louis Cardinals and JoJo Romero being interested in a reunion is one thing that does.
In case you missed it, the rumor mill started spinning when MLB Trade Rumors reported that the St. Louis Cardinals had an interest in bringing JoJo Romero back. That news was added to by Jeff Jones who said that he had sources telling him that JoJo Romero was also interested in becoming a Cardinal again.
DG reporting this morning that the Cardinals have an interest in a reunion with JoJo Romero. Source this afternoon told me that interest is definitely mutual. We’ll see if that’s enough to get a deal done. https://t.co/TOUxMyvthr
The numbers don’t lie. JoJo Romero’s first half with the Cardinals continuing through his World Series run with the Brewers was impressive.
Games Pitched (G) 55 Record (W-L) 3–3 Earned Run Average (ERA) 3.36 Innings Pitched (IP) 56.1 Strikeouts (SO) 54 Walks (BB) 18 WHIP 1.22 FIP 3.97
He was a key part of the Milwaukee Brewers playoff run, too. Over 8 relief appearances in the playoffs, he registered a 1.13 ERA with 11 strikeouts across 8.0 innings pitched.
What would a potential JoJo Romero contract look like?
I’ve seen estimates that he’d likely be seeking a 2-year contract somewhere in the neighborhood of $13 million dollars. JoJo is 30 years old right now. He does have a history with some injury issues including left forearm flexor inflammation in September of 2024 and left patellar tendinitis in his knee back in September of 2023 not to mention Tommy John surgery in March of 2022, but appendicitis this past July with the Cardinals was his only real recent issue. I agree with the commenters that he would not only be a solid arm for the relief staff, but would also be a good influence on the young arms that will be traveling north from Memphis.
The only question I have is whether the Cardinals will have to get into a bidding war to win his services back. There are reports that the Milwaukee Brewers might want JoJo back on their staff and the Minnesota Twins and San Francisco Giants might also be interested. I think JoJo’s return to the Cardinals makes sense on every level. I’ll be very surprised if we don’t learn his fate before the end of November with the likely work stoppage looming on December 1.
Bob Boone, who also played for the Phillies, waves to the crowd before a 2017 game in Philadelphia. (Matt Slocum / Associated Press)
Bob Boone, a four-time All-Star and seven-time Gold Glove winner who spent much of his career with the Angels, has died, his son Bret announced Tuesday via social media. He was 78. No cause of death was shared.
The sturdy catcher was the middle man in one of the most accomplished three-generation Major League Baseball families. He caught more games than all but two catchers in history.
Boone’s father, Ray, and his sons Aaron and Bret also enjoyed successful playing careers. But Bob’s stood out primarily because he was as durable as a cast-iron skillet, catching 2,225 games in 19 seasons.
He spent seven seasons in the 1980s with the Angels, whose manager Gene Mauch marveled after Boone led the American League by catching 147 games at age 37 in 1985, the fourth of five consecutive years he did so.
“Bob Boone is a freak,” Mauch said told The Times the following spring. “I never dreamed he’d catch that many games. A hundred and fifty games is not realistic for a 38-year-old catcher; it’s ridiculous. Except it’s not ridiculous to Bob Boone. I quit being surprised by Bob Boone a long time ago. I’ve never known anyone so mentally tough and impervious to pain.”
Catcher Bob Boone of the Angels argues with plate umpire Tim Tschida, who had just thrown him out of the game against the Mariners in Seattle on Aug. 7, 1987. (Gary Stewart/AP)
Once Boone punched the clock, he punched out baserunners, throwing out a league-leading 41.6% of base stealers in 1985, one of three times he did so with the Angels. And he seemed to improve with age. All seven of Boone’s Gold Gloves came after he turned 30, including four in a row from ages 38 to 41.
“Boone’s leadership, exceptional defense and knowledge of the game made him an invaluable presence behind the plate and helped the Angels win two division titles,” the team said Tuesday in a statement. “His impact on our pitchers and the example he set for his teammates are lasting parts of his legacy with our franchise.”
When Boone retired at age 42 in 1990, he had caught more games than anyone in major league history: 2,225. Three years later, Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk edged him by one. Another Hall of Famer, Ivan Rodriguez, blew past both of them, retiring in 2011 with 2,427 games caught.
No active catcher is anywhere close to passing those three. Salvador Perez (1,427), J.T. Realmuto (1,401) and Christian Vasquez (1,005) are the only ones with more than 1,000 games caught, and all three will begin next season at age 36.
“The roster lists me as the catcher,” Boone told The Times in 1986. “If you’re the catcher, you catch. Every day. I don’t think catching is much more demanding than any other position. It’s not any more difficult than, say, right fielder or third baseman. If they’re in the lineup every day, why shouldn’t I?”
Robert Raymond Boone was born Nov. 19, 1947, in San Diego, where he raised his family. He was the fifth great-grandson of famed frontiersman Daniel Boone.
Boone grew up on a baseball field. His father was an infielder who broke into the big leagues in 1948 after three years of military service during World War II and three years in the minors. Bob was born a year before his dad made his debut with Cleveland. Ray played 13 seasons for six teams, batting .275 with 151 home runs.
Coach Bob Boone of the Cincinnati Reds watches batting practice with his son Bret, a Reds second baseman, before a 1994 game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. (George Gojkovich / Getty Images)
A special family moment came at the 2003 All-Star Game when Ray and Bob attended because Aaron and Bret were playing. Already the first family to have three generations play in the majors, they became the first and only family to have all each generation participate in the All-Star Game.
“Anybody that’s not proud in this situation,” Ray Boone said at the time, “there’s something wrong with them.”
Bob Boone was a sixth-round pick of Philadelphia in 1969 out of Stanford, where he graduated with a degree in psychology. He transitioned from third base to catcher, made his MLB debut in 1972 and became the Phillies’ starting catcher the next season, a position he held until they traded him to the Angels 10 years later. Boone helped Philadelphia win the 1980 World Series.
“Bob was an incredible player, teammate and family man,” the Phillies said in a statement. “He embodied everything we believe exemplary athletes should represent, both on and off the field. We were proud to have him as part of the Phillies family during one of the most historic runs in team history. His impact on our organization, his teammates, and everyone who had the privilege of knowing him will never be forgotten.”
Boone played in seven postseasons with the Phillies and Angels, hitting .311 with two home runs. He finished his career with a .254 batting average, 105 home runs and 826 runs batted in. He also made a mark as the MLB players union’s National League player representative during a midseason strike in 1981.
After retiring, Boone seemed a natural to become a manager. When Orlando attempted to join the National League as an expansion team, Bob was set to lead the team. Miami and Denver got the franchises, however, and Boone didn’t get a chance to manage until 1995 when he led Kansas City.
He was fired midway through his third season and lasted another 2½ seasons managing Cincinnati from 2001-03, a stint in which he managed his son Aaron, who in turn has been manager of the New York Yankees the last nine seasons.
Boone spent several years as an assistant general manager and vice president for player development with Washington. He was part of the front office in 2019 when the Nationals won their only World Series championship.
Boone’s son Bret said on Facebook, “With a heavy heart I’m here to confirm the passing of my dad today. He was a man of great integrity. He was a great dad, husband, and patriarch. It was a privilege to call him my father. Baseball lost a great one today.”
DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 22: Washington Nationals pitcher Jackson Kent (25) pitches in the fourth inning during the game between the Detroit Tigers versus the Washington Nationals on Tuesday September 22, 2026 at Comerica Park in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The 2026 season was an interesting one for Jackson Kent. On one hand, he had quality numbers in the minor leagues and made his MLB debut. However, he also looked overmatched for most of his big league tenure, and did not exactly dominate in AAA. Kent has the ceiling of a solid number 4 starter, but has a lot of work to do in order to get there.
Coming into the season, Kent was one of those prospects to keep an eye on. He was not a big name, but he did some interesting things in his first pro season. Despite posting a 4.61 ERA across two levels, Kent struck out 25.9% of hitters and walked batters at a 7.5% clip. His changeup was his standout pitch, but he needed to add velocity.
That is exactly what Kent did heading into the season. His fastball went from the low-90’s to the mid-90’s. This increase in stuff helped Kent overwhelm AA hitters. He posted a 2.35 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 30.2 innings before quickly getting promoted to Rochester after 7 starts.
Kent’s stint in Rochester looked a lot like his minor league campaign last year. He struck out a lot of hitters, while keeping the walk rate in check. However, his ERA sat at 4.38 and he was plagued by some blowup starts. The advanced numbers painted a prettier picture, but he was still not exactly dominating the level.
Jackson Kent so far in AAA:
38 IP 4.26 ERA (4.00 FIP/3.39 xERA) 26.6% K% 7.6% BB% .228 BAA 30.7% Chase% 30.5% Whiff%
His changeup and curveball have a Whiff% > 40%, and his FF has a whiff% > 28% despite only sitting 93.7 MPH. pic.twitter.com/5UHnR68Qlg
Jackson Kent is not an overpowering arm, but his 5 pitch mix is solid. His go-to pitches are his 4-seamer, his slider and his changeup. Despite only sitting in the 93 MPH range, Kent’s fastball has good life. The best pitch in his arsenal is a tumbling changeup which gets a ton of chase and whiff. One thing about Kent is that he relies heavily on hitters expanding the zone.
His zone rate was below average in AAA, but it really became an issue in the big leagues. Kent only threw pitches in the strike zone at a 42.7% clip, which ranks in the 15th percentile. He actually got plenty of chases, but his inability to throw the ball in the strike zone led to a lot of walks.
This game is getting away from Jackson Kent. Back-to-back, four-pitch walks, the latter with the bases loaded. It's 4-0 and in danger of more.
Despite not having a walk problem in the minors, Kent issued 25 free passes in 36.1 MLB innings. That is a 14.7% walk rate, which is really bad. Without elite stuff, Kent was trying to nibble when he faced big league hitters. The best hitters in the world were also less willing to fall into Kent’s traps compared to minor leaguers.
For Jackson Kent to reach his ceiling, he will have to solve this problem. How can he get the ball in the zone more without allowing a ton of hard contact. There were times where he was spraying his pitches, especially in his first few starts. However, I think a lot of his walks were due to him being afraid to challenge hitters.
Whether it is improving his command, altering his pitch mix or finding extra velocity, Kent will need to change things up when he gets back to the big leagues. I would be surprised if he started the season on the big league roster, but when a pitcher inevitably goes down, he will be one of the first guys in line.
With his changeup and ability to generate ground balls, there is a path to Kent having success. He is a funky lefty with big extension and good enough stuff. That is a profile big league teams like. However, after posting a 5.94 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP, Kent will need to figure some things out.
That is not to say Kent had no moments of success. There was a start at home against the Marlins where Kent went 7 great innings. In that outing, he kept Miami’s hitters off balance all night and did a great job generating soft contact. Those sorts of outings are the blue print for Kent moving forward.
Jackson Kent with a gem in his 4th MLB start
7 IP | 1 R | 3 H | 4 BB | 3 K | 106 Pitches
The lefty looks to earn a stable role moving forward in the Nationals rotation pic.twitter.com/0iAlFDFkqI
His path to success starts with getting quick ground outs and limiting hard contact. The changeup is a good weapon to put guys away when he does get to two strikes. Entering next season, Kent will need to learn to trust his stuff more. In his first taste of the big leagues, he was not very efficient and walked too many guys.
At just 23, Kent has plenty of time to figure things out. However, he showed that he is not ready to be trusted with a full time starting spot yet. It will be important for the Nats to acquire more starting pitchers and let Kent develop in the minors. He could be a piece in the future, but he is not there quite yet. I am intrigued to see what kind of strides he makes in 2027.
TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 28: Aaron Gershenfeld of the New York Yankees poses for a portrait during the New York Yankees Photo Day at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 28, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
For every action, there is a reaction. After losing Tanner Swanson, who essentially left for a promotion to be the bench coach of the Seattle Mariners—signing up for the staff around first-year manager Jason Kanzler—the Yankees are opting for an in-house approach in promoting Aaron Gershenfeld, according to Robert Murray of FanSided.
Officially, it has not been announced that Gershenfeld will be the new Director of Catching for the Yankees—the position Swanson occupied over the last three seasons. However, the fact that he had already been working with catchers for the Yankees for the past several years makes this a healthy assumption; he was previously the Run Prevention and Catching Coordinator. Whatever the specifics, we know much of the work that used to be done by Swanson will now fall under Gershenfeld’s umbrella. Gary Phillips of the Daily Newsspecified that his expected titles are Director of Catching, Major League Field Coordinator, and Catching Coach.
While this turnover in the coaching staff is not necessarily the best news, one could easily choose to be flattered by it. Gershenfeld will have big shoes to fill, replacing Swanson, who thrived working without necessarily the most naturally gifted of catching depth charts throughout his Yankee tenure. The now-Seattle coach extracted all you could defensively out of the likes of Austin Wells, José Trevino, and others. Never mind the impact of strong defense at that position on the Yankees’ pitching staff; strictly from a value standpoint, they needed to be above-average to make up for the lack of production at the plate.
The good thing is that whatever the Yankees’ choice, Gershenfeld is firmly aware of how the team operates and the inner workings and requirements of his new position. Expectations will be high to meet the top-of-the-line status quo, but the 34-year-old should be ready.
ATLANTA, GA - OCTOBER 01: Atlanta right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) reacts after the final out during the Philadelphia Phillies versus the Atlanta Braves in game 3 of the National League Wild Card Series on October 1st, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
First off, this is a big shout-out to DJourn for helping to keep the convo going over in The Feed. He’s been touching upon some rumors throughout the offseason and I figured that it was my turn to weigh in on some of them. It’s November 10 and there’s not much else going on — even with Awards Week going on, the GM Meetings taking place in Las Vegas and the lockout looming, there still hasn’t been a ton of talk about player movement or acquisition from a Braves perspective.
Not a lot has changed in that regard but hey, there are some rumors out there so let’s go ahead and talk about what’s out there, shall we?
Will the Braves trade Ronald Acuña Jr?
No.
Well, I guess I’d better expound upon that. The answer to this was “no” before Jon Morosi poured cold water on that rumor. The easiest way to put it is that it still makes plenty of dollars and sense for the Braves to hold onto a player of Acuña’s caliber. Both he and Ozzie Albies signed two of the most absurdly team-friendly deals that you’ll ever see players of that caliber (especially Acuña’s) agree to, so from a financial standpoint the Braves are going to hold on to both of those players for as long as they see possible and aren’t going to hit the “eject” button any sooner than they’d feel necessary.
Secondly, Acuña is still a really good player who has shown that he can still dip into the superstar vein of form that made him one of the most electric players in baseball not all that long ago. Sure, his performance in the Postseason was concerning but really, who else was producing in the plate on a consistent basis during this past Postseason run outside of Michael Harris II? Acuña’s failure to show up at the plate during the NLDS was certainly disappointing but he certainly wasn’t alone in failing to reach expectations during that series.
Also, it’s not like the trade banter makes sense in a way that it would for, say, Spencer Strider. Strider was reportedly involved in the trade talks that would’ve brought the Braves Jacob deGrom and that only made sense because Strider is clearly diminished from where he was before his elbow issues began. While Acuña has also taken a step back since dealing with injury issues of his own, he’s also shown that he can go into supernova mode once he’s healthy and has things figured out.
From August 1 through the series-clinching series in Houston in late-September, Acuña was hitting .283/.340/.528 at the plate with a wOBA of .373, 12 homers, five stolen bases and a 136 wRC+. That’s still a step back from what he did in limited time during the 2025 season (.290/.417/.518, .403 wOBA, 21 homers, 162 wRC+) but it’s close enough to where it’s clear that if Acuña can stay healthy and get on a run, he can aboslutely be a star-caliber player going forward.
I’m sure that this’ll make for some tricky contract negotiations going forward when you consider his body of work and the pros and cons that come along with potentially making a long-term commitment to Acuña once his contract is up but at the same time, I’d imagine that the Braves would much rather have him around than to ship him elsewhere and risk seeing a potential superstar get right with another ballclub. The Braves under Alex Anthopoulos aren’t afraid to let core players walk (see: Freddie Freeman, Max Fried, Dansby Swanson, etc.) but they also aren’t willing to just ship them out, either. It’s extremely unlikely that the Braves will be trading Acuña any time soon.
Is Jurickson Profar done with the Braves?
Now this has been an interesting saga to keep track of. Jurickson Profar is certainly making an effort to return to the Braves for the 2027 season but based on what Alex Anthopoulos said about Profar in his end-of-season media availability and the inked article from Mark Bowman, I think this could be a situation where the Braves might actually decide to cut bait if it came down to it.
It might sound like a cliché but the Braves definitely do value a harmonious clubhouse. It’s part of the reason why they chose to promote NL Manager of the Year finalist Walt Weiss from bench coach to manager and it’s Anthopoulos has frequently cited character as one of the factors that goes into his search for and recruitment of players. A peaceful clubhouse is a clubhouse that will remain laser-focused on winning and pulling in the same direction and it’s hard to imagine that being the case when it comes to a guy like Profar who left his teammates in the lurch for one-and-a-half seasons due to some decisions off-the-field.
I figured that due to the suddenly-affordable deal that the Braves have Profar on that this would be a no-brainer to keep him around. However, if the clubhouse doesn’t want him around then maybe we’d see Alex Anthopoulos give the players what they want and ship Profar out one way or another. He certainly didn’t commit to the idea of keeping him around during that aforementioned media availability so maybe there’s a source of fire coming from the smoke billowing from Mark Bowman’s article.
Phillies interested in Ha-Seong Kim
Well, good luck with all of that!
No, but seriously, this does seem like the type of move that would be right down Dave Dombrowski’s alley. Ha-Seong Kim is a veteran with a proven track record of production and there’s certainly a universe where Kim never slipped on ice in January and we’re talking about the Braves needing to figure out a way to keep him. However, we are currently in the universe where that finger injury essentially wrecked his season and now we’re even further removed from his last fully productive season of 2024 — and he’s officially over 30-years old as well.
Still, it would make sense that if the Phillies are still trying to hold on to this current era then they’d give Ha-Seong Kim a try. With Trea Turner apparently being destined to play center field going forward, they have a pretty large hole at shortstop with not too many appealing candidates left to fill it. Considering how bleak the free agency market is for shortstop, if you’re going to go down the free agency route then taking a flier on Kim would make a decent amount of sense. It’s a huge gamble at this point but hey, scared money don’t make money, right?
Anyways, I’m saying all of that to bring it home in a perspective that makes sense for Atlanta: He’s probably not coming back here, either. I’d have to imagine that at this point after a full season and a month of having Ha-Seong Kim around, the Braves are probably in the “thanks, but no thanks” territory with him. He was lovely to have around by all accounts and we’ve talked about how he stayed a consummate professional despite his struggles but it’s still highly unlikely that we’ll see Ha-Seong Kim return to Atlanta. Maybe if they get really desperate then we’ll see talks of a reunion for a second full season start to heat up but for now, the Braves might just let the Phillies take their crack at it.
Bob O’Farrell with the Cubs in 1922 | | Getty Images
Bob O’Farrell is one of the earliest examples of a Cubs player who was very good for the team — posting seasons of 6.0 and 4.7 bWAR in 1922 and 1923 at ages 25 and 26 — and then was traded away because the Cubs had a catcher they thought was going to do much better.
In this case, they were right. Gabby Hartnett was that new catcher and yes, he had a much better career than O’Farrell, eventually ending up in the Hall of Fame.
But the Cubs didn’t get much for O’Farrell when they traded him to the Cardinals May 23, 1925. The players in return: Howard Freigau and Mike González. Freigau was a decent player for a couple years, but by the time the Cubs won their next pennant in 1929, he was gone. González backed up Hartnett and was capable, but… if they’d kept O’Farrell, they’d have had an almost unbeatable catching tandem.
O’Farrell, a Chicago-area native (Waukegan), played 12 years for the Cubs, though as a teenager he played in only six games for the team in his first three seasons. He posted 14.5 bWAR as a Cub, and his best year was that 6.0 bWAR sason in 1922, when he batted .324/.439/.441 in 126 games. The next year he hit 12 home runs while batting .319/.408/.471 in 131 games. An injury helped the Cubs want to move on to Hartnett, as described in O’Farrell’s SABR biography:
In a game on July 22, 1924, an injury to O’Farrell knocked him out of the Cubs lineup for three weeks. Essentially, it cost him his starting job. In the first inning of the first game of a doubleheader, a foul tip off the bat of Stuffy McInnis struck O’Farrell’s catcher’s mask. The impact caused the steel support rods to jam right into O’Farrell’s forehead far enough that he suffered a concussion. He was rushed to the hospital where he would remain for two to three weeks.
“It was my own fault,” O’Farrell said to [author Lawrence] Ritter. “It was an old mask and I knew I shouldn’t have worn it. You know, a lot of times a catcher’s mask gets so much banging around it gets dented here and there. If you try to bend it back the way it’s supposed to be, it weakens it. Well, I got on an old mask that day and asked the clubhouse boy to go get me my regular one. Before he could get back with it, the ball had spun off the bat, smashed through the mask, and knocked me unconscious.”
O’Farrell was NL MVP in 1926 with the Cardinals, batting .293/.371/.433 in a career-high 147 games and throwing out 51 percent of runners trying to steal. That’s something he was really good at, and O’Farrell was the catcher who threw out Babe Ruth trying to steal second in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the 1926 World Series, winning that Series for St. Louis.
O’Farrell played in MLB through 1935, even returning briefly to the Cubs in 1934. After his career he returned to Waukegan, where he ran a bowling alley/billiards center. He died Feb. 20, 1988 in Waukegan, aged 91.
DENVER, CO - AUGUST 4: Relief pitcher Nick Frasso #41 of the Colorado Rockies delivers a pitch in the 11th inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Coors Field on August 4, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. Frasso is making his Major League debut. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to the 2026 edition of Ranking the Rockies, where we take a look back at every player to log playing time for the Rockies in 2026. The purpose of this list is to provide a snapshot of the player in context. The “Ranking” is an organizing principle that’s drawn from Baseball Reference’s WAR (rWAR). It’s not something the staff debated. We’ll begin with the player with the lowest rWAR and end up with the player with the highest.
Nick Frasso brings velo and a weird arm angle. Positions on third base side of rubber so ball looks like it’s coming from SS. Delivery compared to longtime big leaguer Jered Weaver. Should be in big leagues soon. He is out of options. #Rockies more comfortable with that than… https://t.co/nNituCyKD2
Until that point, Frasso had spent the previous six seasons in the Toronto Blue Jays and Dodgers minor league systems after having been drafted in the fourth round in 2020. Originally thought of as a potential starting pitcher, Frasso reached as high as the number 68 overall prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline in 2023. From that prospect ranking high, however, Frasso went on to miss the entire 2024 season recovering from shoulder surgery.
Having never managed to amass more than 93 innings in a season previously, he was quickly moved to the bullpen upon his return to action in 2025.
Frasso came to the Rockies having put up great strikeout numbers (14.59 K/9) for the Dodgers Triple-A affiliate in 2026 paired with abysmal walk totals (6.20 BB/9). That lack of command had prevented Frasso from being able to break into the Dodgers stacked Major League roster. As a 27 year old, Frasso was running out of time to translate his raw stuff and 91st percentile extension into the sort of finished product that would lead to a notable MLB career.
After entering the Rockies organization, however, Frasso did not need to wait long before being given a shot in the big leagues. Just a week after being traded, with only five (admittedly impressive) appearances for the Albuquerque Isotopes on his résumé, Frasso was called up to the Rockies to make his Major League debut.
For his first assignment, Frasso took the ball in the 11th inning of a tie game against the Tampa Bay Rays in what manager Warren Schaeffer would later characterize as “Probably the most difficult position you can be in (for) your Major League debut.”
His first opponent, Taylor Walls, moved the extra-innings automatic-runner from second to third on a sacrifice bunt attempt. The next batter he faced was the ever-intimidating Yandy Diaz, against whom he bounced a ball in the dirt allowing the go-ahead run to score.
With what would ultimately be the winning run already scored, Frasso finished the inning after allowing another run on a couple of hits. While his first taste of the big leagues may not have gone exactly as he would have liked, Frasso managed to muddle through a full inning and look to the future.
Frasso remained on the Major League roster for the remainder of the 2026 season. His results throughout his 20 appearances for the Rockies were a mixed bag.
The chase percentage that he saw as a prospect was still present during his first stint against Major League hitters, but he was not able to translate that into the sort of strikeout numbers he had become accustomed to.
His two best stretches, encompassing a total of ten scoreless innings over nine outings, was interrupted by a brutal four game streak in early September in which he allowed nine runs in just 3.2 innings. If not for that brief swoon, Frasso’s overall line in his rookie season would look sparkling and it’s notable that he was able to course correct and throw four scoreless outings to finish off his season.
The most encouraging aspect of his final line is that his walk rate, which had been his largest problem area throughout his minor-league career, dropped from 9.4% in his debut month of August all the way down to 4.3% in September. With his combination of stuff and extension, a walk rate like he showed in September would allow him to become a high-leverage reliever for years to come.
Clay Holmes (Photo by Isaac Wasserman/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Inspiration.
Every offseason, the AZ Snake Pit has player reviews for every player who played for the Diamondbacks Major League Team. Those reviews will happen later in this offseason.
If things had happened differently (in a parallel universe), there are several players who played for the Diamondbacks – but it did not happen in this universe. In this universe, they will not have formal player reviews.
Let’s look at some of those players and do mini-reviews.
Last season, in a parallel universe, who might have played for the Diamondbacks?
AJ Puk. If he had avoided injury, he would have added to a bullpen which was better than it had been in years.
Kristian Robinson. If his batting broke out to the extent that he could not be ignored, he might have been called up to be a designated hitter.
Ty France. Having children takes many years for some couples. If the birth of his children had not happened near the beginning of last season, he might have been open to playing for the Diamondbacks instead of the Padres. In February, the Padres offered him a minor league contract, and his MLB contract was small with an incentive clause. I’m confident that the Diamondbacks would have matched or bettered it because the Diamondbacks needed a first baseman.
Marcelo Mayer. Last offseason, the Diamondbacks discussed trading away Ketel Marte to the Red Sox. The Red Sox refused to trade away Marcello Mayer and a reworked trade did not happen (per Gabe Speier of the Boston Globe). What if the Red Sox had agreed to trade him to the Diamondbacks?
Clay Holmes. Pending medical checks, the Mets had agreed to trade Clay Holmes to the Diamondbacks in return for a prospect. The Mets did not like the medical records of the prospect, and an alternate was not found. What if the prospect had been acceptable to the Mets?
2026 Parallel Universe Player # 1 : AJ Puk
2025 Stats: 8 Games in relief, 3.38 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 12 SO, 2 BB.
Due to injury, in 2026 he played 2 games in AAA, plus 3 games in the rookie league.
Date of Birth: 4/25/1995.
2026 Earnings: $3.1 Million.
2027 Status: Free Agent.
2026 Review.
Due to injury, he did not play for the Diamondbacks Major League Team. In 2025, his strength was a fastball velocity of 96.4 MPH, which was at the 83rd percentile. His 34.3% K was awesome. His 2.84 xERA was better than his actual ERA. In the parallel universe, he significantly improved the Diamondbacks bullpen. He pitched 30 games and added 1.3 bWAR.
In the parallel universe, his performance was about the same as his 2025 season.
Performance Comparison 2025 actual (parallel universe) vs 2026 Diamondbacks. His 3.38 ERA was better than the 4.07 ERA of pitching in relief per FanGraphs. His 4.61 FIP was worse than the 4.01 FIP of pitching in relief. Overall, the Diamondbacks won one additional game in the parallel universe.
2027 Outlook.
He is a free agent. He could play for the Diamondbacks in both universes. He is projected to have an ERA between 3.42 and 3.86. He could make a positive contribution to the Diamondbacks bullpen, especially if his velocity and strikeouts are at 2025 levels.
2026 Parallel Universe Player # 2 : Kristian Robinson.
2026 Stats: 116 Games in AAA, .268/.373/.442 (BA/OBP/ SLG).
Date of Birth: 12/11/2000.
2026 Earnings: Minor League.
2027 Status: Free Agent.
2026 Review.
In AAA, his average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrels per batted ball event were better than the Reno Aces averages (92.4 vs 91.7 MPH, 45.0% vs 38.2%, and 9.1 vs 7.4 B/BBE). However, they fell short of numbers that would have shouted to call him up to the Majors as a designated hitter (perhaps with some playing time in the outfield).
In the parallel universe, his RBIs per plate appearance in Reno was 50% higher (0.18 instead of 0.12). Mid-season he was called up and in the Majors his RBIs per PA was 0.14, which was better than the team’s second half average of 0.12. With 300 PAs, he added 6 runs (about 0.6 bWAR).
Performance Comparison 2026 parallel universe vs 2026 Diamondbacks. In the parallel universe, he increased the team RBIs by 6, which won the Diamondbacks one additional game.
2027 Outlook.
He is a free agent, and I would be surprised if he plays for the Diamondbacks.
2026 Earnings: $1.35 Million plus $0.65 Million incentive.
2027 Status: Free Agent.
2026 Review.
Playing first base for the Padres, his 139 OPS+ was a career best. His defense was outstanding: In 2025, he won a gold glove. In 2026, his 7 outs above average was the second best among first basemen, and his 15 defensive runs saved was best among first basemen.
Performance Comparison 2026 actual vs 2026 Diamondbacks. Comparing wins above average at first base, the Padres had positive 1.9 and the Diamondbacks had negative 2.3. In the parallel universe, the Diamondbacks signed him before the season started. The Diamondbacks won four additional games.
2027 Outlook.
He is a free agent. Because the Diamondbacks do not have a first baseman for next season, and because he is an outstanding first baseman, acquiring him would make a large positive impact.
2026 Parallel Universe Player # 4 : Marcelo Mayer.
In the parallel universe, the Diamondbacks traded away Ketel Marte for Marcelo Mayer. Ildemaro Vargas played more games as the second baseman to cover the loss of Marte, and Mayer stayed in the minors to continue his development until September.
Performance Comparison 2026 actual vs 2026 Diamondbacks. In the parallel universe, the Diamondbacks lost two additional games.
2027 Outlook.
Marcelo Mayer is on track to be an All-Star. At some point, his performance will reach that level, but maybe not in 2027.
Looking forward, the Diamondbacks will be ok that they kept Ketel Marte. Ketel Marte’s performance will likely bounce back, and his hitting fundamentals are among the best players on the Diamondbacks.
2026 Parallel Universe Player # 5 : Clay Holmes.
2026 Stats: 18 Games Started, 3.29 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 78 SO, 42 BB.
Date of Birth: 3/27/1993.
2026 Earnings: $13 Million.
2027 Status: Free Agent.
2026 Review.
He is a starting pitcher. He pitched exceptionally well (1.86 ERA) until the 15 May game, when a line drive hit his leg and broke a bone. What is extraordinary is that with a broken leg he finished the inning and in the next inning he got one batter out before leaving the game.
When he returned, his 4.25 ERA was good, but less than exceptional.
Performance Comparison 2026 actual (after 7 August) vs 2026 Diamondbacks (after 7 August). In the parallel universe, he was traded to the Diamondbacks at the beginning of August. From 8 August onward, his 4.25 ERA was slightly better than the Diamondbacks average of 4.43. However, he pitched 3 shutouts in the parallel universe. The Diamondbacks won three additional games.
2027 Outlook.
He is a free agent. His projected ERA is between 3.63 and 4.25. My view is that he will pitch much better than projected, albeit not reaching the rarified heights of an ERA of 2. He would be an excellent acquisition by the Diamondbacks.
The Major League Baseball season's characterization as a "marathon" is more appropriate than any other professional sport.
There are plenty of ebbs and flows over the course of the 162-game season. Performances can't be defined by a single month or stretch of time.
The extensive nature of the campaign is what made the National League race for Rookie of the Year one of the most contentious contests in the MLB Award season. Over the course of six months, five candidates rose to the top in the Reds' Sal Stewart, Mets' Carson Benge and Nolan McLean, Cardinals' JJ Wetherholt and Rockies' TJ Rumfield.
In the end, it was Stewart who was named the NL Rookie of the Year honor as the Baseball Writers Association of American announced the award on Monday night. Stewart took home the honor on the strength of his 32 home runs and 112 RBI, which led all NL rookies, along with 87 runs, a .787 OPS, 25 doubles and 15 stolen bases.
Stewart earned 20 of the 30 possible first-place votes. The Mets' Benge ended up as the runner-up with seven first-place votes, three second-place votes and 12 third-place designations.
One of those votes for Benge to receive the top honor was mine.
When the BBWAA assigned its award designations to the writers in early August, the Rookie of the Year race appeared to be a two-horse race between Stewart and Wetherholt. But over the the final two months of the season, Benge's kick provided further intrigue.
That's why the season is an endurance race. And by the completion of the 2026 season, I believe Benge had done enough in all facets of the game to warrant the top slot in the Rookie of the Year vote.
Stewart's explosive bat made him a top contender. The Reds first baseman had the second-most RBI and eighth-most home runs in the National League while he slashed .263/.330/.457. But defensively, he posted a -2 outs above average and a negative first-base receiving score.
Wetherholt, who finished third in the voting, proved he had one of the best gloves in all of baseball, boasting a +25 outs above average that trailed only Cubs MVP frontrunner Pete Crow-Armstrong for the best mark in baseball. While batting atop the Cardinals' lineup, the second baseman led all rookies with 89 runs, while adding 17 home runs, 51 RBI and 14 stolen bases but posting an unassuming .242/.339/.365 slash line in 139 games.
Benge provided the best of both worlds in terms of offense and defense despite a slow start through the opening two months, which hurt his case in the early going. Benge opened with a .189 batting average and .525 OPS through the month of April. He slashed .299/.363/.457 over the final five months.
The Mets right-fielder led all rookies with 168 hits — matching the Tigers' Kevin McGonigle in the American League — and was second among NL rookies in batting average (.282) and home runs (20) and third in RBI (65) and stolen bases (22). Benge is the only NL rookie to finish in the top three in each of those key offensive categories.
Benge's 118 OPS+ bested both Stewart and Wetherholt. He had a better batting average and on-base percentage than both. And his offensive spark only told half the story.
Benge was one of the three finalists for the NL Gold Glove in right field. His 10 outfield assists were the third-most among all NL outfielders while he boasted a 7 defensive runs saved. Benge's arm value was the best in baseball, along with the fifth-highest arm strength in MLB.
Stewart might have had the best offensive season among all rookies in baseball, while Wetherholt proved to be one of the best young defensive infielders.
Benge was at the top of his class in a multitude of different categories while flashing one of the best outfield gloves in all of the National League. The Mets also saw Nolan McLean finish in fourth place and A.J. Ewing receive a fifth-place vote.
Benge might not have earned the hardware on Monday night, but his first season, and those supplied by McLean and Ewing alongside him, us enough to have Mets fans yearning for more heading into a bright future.
Offer him a salary next year greater than Kyle Tucker’s last year.
Or even Shohei Ohtani’s.
If the uncertainty over potential future economic regulations give the Dodgers reservations about signing Skubal to a long-term contract, present him with a deal that would pay him more money than any player has ever made in a single season.
Eighty million dollars.
Ninety million.
One-hundred million.
Whatever necessary.
Tarik Skubal of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts against the Milwaukee Brewers during Game 1 of the NLCS on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, in Milwaukee. Getty Images
The Dodgers like to talk about the importance of reading and reacting to various situations, and that’s what their efforts to re-sign two-time Cy Young Award winner call for them to do.
As the baseball industry gathered Monday on the Las Vegas Strip for the general managers meetings this week, teams didn’t know the rules under which they would be playing next season, whether there will be a salary cap or some other form of cost control designed to increase franchise valuations.
The prospect of a salary cap or some other form of cost control in the next collective-bargaining agreement could make the Dodgers reluctant to sign Skubal to the kind of eight- to 10-year contract he figures to command on the open market.
As it is, the Dodgers already have a number of long-term commitments on their books. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is under contract through 2035, Ohtani and Will Smith through 2033, Mookie Betts through 2032, Tucker and Blake Snell through 2029.
While the pitch was quickly rejected by the players, it confirmed that even if extreme changes are introduced, teams will likely be granted time to make their rosters salary-cap compliant.
The Dodgers have to take advantage of that grace period.
Andrew Friedman, President of baseball operations for the Los Angeles Dodgers, speaks to the media at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026. Getty Images
They will have to offer Skubal enough money to forfeit the security of a longer deal.
What about $100 million to pitch for them next year? Perhaps a player option or two after that?
If nine figures for one season of baseball sounds expensive, consider the cost of not retaining Skubal.
They have an older roster, but that doesn’t mean this iteration of their team is finished. They could have another championship run in them.
The Dodgers won 100 games this year – and that was with Ohtani injured for the half of the season.
They destroyed the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS – and that was with Ohtani hitting on one leg.
Manage Ohtani better, re-sign Skubal, inject the right amount of youth into their roster, and who’s to say the Dodgers can’t win the World Series next year?
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal throws against the Milwaukee Brewers during Game 1 of the NLCS on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, in Milwaukee. Getty Images
Acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Skubal quickly became a central figure in their locker room and was entrusted with being their No. 1 starter in the postseason.
“The way he was able to seamlessly transition, not just in terms of on the field, but in the clubhouse, I can’t say enough good things about the impact he made in such a short period of time,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said.
Offering Skubal a short but lucrative deal doesn’t mean he will accept it, of course.
Skubal’s market is “robust,” according to his agent, Scott Boras.
“Pitchers like him deliver what every owner covets, and that’s championships,” Boras said.
The Dodgers owe it to themselves to at least make an attempt to re-sign Skubal, however.
They have a small opening to retain a player they want without compromising their long-term stability.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 03: Adrian Morejon #50 of the San Diego Padres pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the seventh inning in game one of the National League Division Series at American Family Field on October 03, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Chasing starting pitching on the free agent market is often a fool’s errand. The combination of injury risk and performance variance at the position removes any ability to add certainty to your rotation. Guys with top-end potential cost an absurd amount and typically come with high risk. Seemingly safe options to fill out the back of your rotation fall apart just about as frequently, and you should be able to create that sort of arm internally anyway. To the Mets’ credit, they seem able to do this. Your best move is typically not to play.
Converting relievers into starters has emerged—or re-emerged, depending on your historical perspective—as a viable alternative path to adding starting pitch depth in the last half decade. Reynaldo Lopez, Michael King, Seth Lugo, and of course Clay Holmes have all been notable success stories in recent years. This has expanded from a niche dice roll to a league-wide trend, to the point where a pitcher like Adrián Morejón seemed likely to be one of the most sought after pitchers on this year’s market—at least until he indicated a preference for remaining a reliever.
When analyzing the Clay Holmes signing two years ago, we took a pass at defining what sort of reliever is a good conversion candidate. With Holmes now gone and the Mets seemingly gearing up for another dip into the free agent starter market, now is a good time to update that analysis and see if there are any under-the-radar finds worth pursuing.
So back to the core question: What are the actual differences between starters and relievers? After contemplating this question deeply and discussing with several well-respected baseball minds, I’d define four key dimensions that define the difference:
Arsenal Depth: Starting pitchers, even in an era where they see fewer batters and pitch fewer innings than ever before, typically face batters multiple times. They also, in general, cannot sustain max-effort, top of the line stuff quality over their full outings. This necessitates a broader, more varied pitch mix, typically featuring options with both armside and gloveside movement. Without getting into the nitty gritty of pitch-interactions, we can quantify this with a metric I call pitch mix entropy (PME)—see below for an explanation.
Arsenal Quality: Relievers typically have better raw stuff. In part this is because they’re airing it out for an inning at a time and don’t have to conserve energy. In part it’s a selection bias, because you can survive with one or two really good pitches as a reliever but not as a starter. Stuff quality also drops when going from the bullpen to the rotation for the aforementioned reasons. Conversion candidates, therefore, will likely have good enough stuff to sustain their arsenal even when accounting for the conversion penalty.
Location: Though less critical than the previous two factors, throwing strikes is more important to surviving as a starter than a reliever, due both to the underlying role / responsibilities (you need to throw more pitches and more innings) and the previously mentioned stuff penalty (you can get away with fewer strikes if you’re throwing nastier stuff).
Physical Capability: This is the hardest criteria to quantify but is nonetheless critical. Some guys simply can’t hold up to a starter’s workload, or have too checkered an injury past to make the conversion worth it. I am a firm member of the “predicting health outcomes is impossible” camp, particularly with only public information, but we can leverage some common sense to rule out select pitchers as we work through the data.
Pitch Mix Entropy was defined as the Shannon Entropy of a single player’s pitches, a metric that ranges from 0-1. As a simple example, a pitcher with a more varied arsenal like Seth Lugo will have a higher value, while someone like Kenley Jansen who throws a limited arsenal will have a lower value.A better metric would incorporate the diversity of movement profiles as well, something Baseball Prospectus’s Surprise Factor metric does in a slightly different way.
Putting aside the Physical Capability aspect of things, we can quantify the differences between starters and relievers across these three metrics:
*One-tailed T-test between 2026 qualified players
Arsenal Depth and Arsenal Quality both match our expectations; starters have deeper arsenals, relievers have nastier stuff. Location, as quantified by Zone%, is a bit trickier. The surface level difference is minimal and the statistical difference is not significant. A confounding factor here is that pitchers can succeed in different ways – a low control, high stuff profile can work as either a starter or a reliever. Other metrics such as Location+ show similar results. Maybe you fall in the “control is fake” camp, and this evidence perhaps supports that. In either case, there is certainly a limit to how bad your control can be before you run into problems (we all remember later career Óliver Pérez).
If you’re more a visual person, here’s what this looks like for starters…
…and for relievers:
Highlighted circles represent those players at least two standard deviations away from the mean Stuff+ and PME in any direction. Names omitted from some highlighted relievers for readability purposes.
Unsurprisingly, there are a lot more arms up and to the left in relief, guys who throw one or maybe two nasty pitches and nothing else. By contrast, there are a fair number more starters on the right hand side of the plot, those who survive on varied arsenals despite pedestrian stuff. Command, as previously discussed, is a bit all over the place, but does offer some useful context; guys with terrible command and weak stuff (i.e., Austin Voth) are bad. Those with nasty stuff and terrible command (i.e., Josh Hader) can be good, but may also struggle (i.e., Jefry Yan).
So we have a theoretical framework to parse the differences between starters and relievers, now let’s apply it. The best conversion candidates are likely those that:
Have sufficiently differentiated arsenals in some direction – perhaps not as stringent as our plots above, but something noticeable
Have above average stuff to survive the conversion penalty – at least one standard deviation better than mean Stuff+
Have viable arsenal depth – at worst one standard deviation worse than mean starter PME
Have viable command – at worst one standard deviation worse than starter Zone%
Some of these players are clearly too old (e.g., Aroldis Chapman) or too injury prone (e.g., Mason Montgomery) to give this a go. But there are some hits as well. There’s Adrián Morejón at the top of the list. AJ Smith-Shawver, who has at times looked like a potentially decent starter, also appears. Ditto Chase Dollander. The Rays already traded for Casey Legumina and deployed him as a starter a couple times as well.
Then there are some new names. Justin Martinez just signed an extension with the Diamondbacks and looks like the closer of the future, but he’s young enough and started recently enough that he seems ripe for conversion. Louis Varland was a failed starter in Minnesota before figuring it out in the bullpen in Toronto, and I have to wonder if it would work as a starter. Jhoan Duran hasn’t started a game since 2021 and has been so good in relief that you probably don’t mess with it, but theoretically he’s an interesting option.
The two most interesting guys to me here are Drew Sommers and Yoendrys Gómez. Sommers was awesome last year for the Tigers and has never started before, but he seems like someone where this could work. Gómez wasn’t quite as good in relief but has started more recently. I’d be kicking the tires on both of them via trade this offseason if I’m the Mets.
But what if you think stuff is control is fake? We can remove that threshold to open the aperture a bit, and some more names come through:
This doesn’t add a ton of names but does unveil Aaron Ashby, perhaps the best candidate for this beyond Morejon. Coming off his insane postseason run, Ashby still seems intent on starting, and frankly the Brewers should probably let him. Will the control hold up in the rotation? Great question, but the breadth and quality of the stuff are good enough to be worth finding out.
Edgardo Henriquez is another fascinating name here, but not one that I think will be relevant for us; the Dodgers have too many starters to make experimenting with a shut down reliever worth it, and he’s not likely to be available via trade. William Kempner is an interesting one that might be attainable. There’s nasty stuff and he started in his senior year at Gonzaga back in 2022. He’s worth checking in with the Marlins on.
There is one caveat to our analysis that we’ve left out; pitchers can add to their arsenal when moving to the rotation. Clay Holmes himself is a prime example of this. In 2024 with the the Yankees he had well below average PME, throwing two pitches (sinker and slider) exclusively. One year later with the Mets, Holmes was throwing five pitches and running an above average PME.
So it may be worth looking at arms who don’t have presently broad arsenals. We’ll still have a threshold—three standard deviations below mean PME—to ween out the extreme narrow arsenal guys, but that leaves a number of additional candidates. Note that previously highlighted players are omitted for readability:
Parsing this is harder than our previous two views. Unless you’re an actual professional coach, determining which of these relievers can add a pitch—and which pitches they should add—is likely beyond your capabilities. A decent proxy would be looking at recent starters such as Dax Fulton who seems like a prime candidate to step back into the Marlins’ rotation next season. Alex McFarlane is another NL East name who the Phillies could leverage as a starter in 2027. All of Blade Tidwell, Seth Johnson, Antwone Kelly, and Erik Tolman had some degree of recognition as prospects and started in the minors, but have struggled significantly with health or effectiveness.
There are two free agent names in Alex Vesia and Evan Phillips that pop up towards the extremes of this cluster. Both are interesting in a vacuum, but neither has a track record of starting, both are over 30, and in Phillips’ case his arm is held together by duct tape and glue. I would chalk these up as plausible but unlikely conversion candidates.
For completeness, what about those arms that don’t necessarily have high-end stuff but zone the ball well and have a broad arsenal. Here you’re mostly getting former and/or failed starters who have not narrowed their arsenal to function in the bullpen. This is not a group worth digging into, but is a decent sanity check on the analysis:
This is an imperfect framework for a number of reasons. Public facing stuff metrics are poor. Zone% is a rudimentary at best measure of control. A more sophisticated view of pitch mix diversity would be informative. And of course we’re missing the all important ability to determine physical capability of starting.
Nevertheless, we can pick out a number of candidates for whom a conversion might make sense. Most (Sommers, Kempner, Gómez, Fulton, McFarlane) would have to be acquired via trade, and the majority of the free agents that stick out (Phillips, Vesia) are likely not viable options.
Morejón, however, really does stand out as much as the free agent hype suggests. His current arsenal—buffed by pitching in releif—is most similar to Jacob Misiorowski among starters. Hitting him with a nerf similar to other players who have made the conversion puts him in the range of Payton Tolle and Eury Perez. He’s only 27, as well, meaning whoever signs him gets his physical prime. Presuming his medicals hold up, he really does seem like the best conversion candidate yet and someone the Mets should seriously pursue.
All data and filtration results can be found here.
The good news is that thanks to new rules in the game meant to disincentivize service-time manipulation the Reds get an additional draft pick between the first and second rounds.
The not-so-good news: The price just went up on the inevitable extension talks with the hard-hitting, 22-year-old All-Star.
Four months after the Reds inked Stewart’s pal, Reds ace Chase Burns, to a $105 million, seven-year extension, the Reds and Stewart still had not engaged in talks about an extension for the 32-homer rookie slugger, sources said.
And the meter continues to run after Stewart became the franchise’s ninth player to win the National League Rookie of the Year award, with Stewart also a finalist for a prestigious Silver Slugger award. Those winners are announced next week.
The tangible upside for the team — beyond possibly earning a few more ticket sales in marketing the “award-winning” Sal — is the Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick that figures to be a top-40 overall pick between their first- and second-round picks.
That’s because of a 2022 rule that rewards teams for promoting prospects closer to the beginning of a season rather than wait long enough with their better prospects to assure an additional year of club control before free agency.
That delay of less than two weeks led to players such as Kris Bryant and Maikel Franco to file union grievances a decade ago against their teams for service-time manipulation that delayed their free agency. Bryant won a Rookie of the Year award in 2015 after being kept in the minors the first eight games of that season, which meant an additional six years before he was eligible for free agency.
How potentially valuable are the additional supplemental picks?
Stewart was selected 32nd overall in 2022 – as an additional compensation pick for the Reds for losing Nick Castellanos as a free agent.
