My Spring Training predictions for Saturday, February 28 are locked in on Cactus League action.
Find out why the San Francisco Giants top my MLB picks for today at juicy odds.
Spring Training predictions for February 28
Pick
Odds
LAA moneyline
-135
SF moneyline
+140
MIL moneyline
+100
Pick #1: Angels moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks SP Mitch Bratt was shelled in his first Spring Training start to the tune of three runs (two earned) on three hits and a walk in just 1 1/3 innings. Considering he's never pitched above the Double-A level, I'm not optimistic he'll turn things around vs. the Los Angeles Angels.
The Angels are trotting out a lineup similar to the one they'll use on Opening Day, featuring Mike Trout batting second.
Alek Manoah gets the ball for L.A., and he tossed two scoreless innings for the Halos on Sunday.
Pick #2: Giants moneyline
I'll gladly fade the Athletics, who are off to a dreadful 1-5 start with just 17 runs scored in Cactus League play.
I don't have any knocks against A's starter Luis Morales, but San Francisco Giants SP Tyler Mahle is simply the more established arm on the hill in this one.
Mahle authored a sparkling 2.18 ERA last season and makes his 2026 Spring Training debut here behind a Giants team that's 5-2 so far with a +13 run differential.
Pick #3: Brewers moneyline
The Cincinnati Reds have the pitching matchup advantage on name value, but Hunter Greene's Spring Training numbers do not inspire confidence.
Greene owns a 5.83 ERA all-time in exhibition play over 63 1/3 combined innings. He's toeing the rubber against a Milwaukee Brewers club that's won four games in a row.
Rob Zastryzny gets the nod for the Brew Crew today, and while he's unlikely to see more than an inning, it should be a clean one, just like his first effort of 2026.
It's hard to knock Zastryzny's 2.12 ERA through 29 2/3 innings in a Milwaukee uniform.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Feb 26, 2026; Dunedin, Florida, USA; Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter George Springer (4) signs autographs before the game against the Florida Marlins during spring training at TD Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images
We have two spring games today, so we get two GameThreads in one. That is our reward for making it to the end of February. Both games have some players I’d like to watch. More of the regulars are in the Phillies game. And we can watch Dylan Cease pitch in that one. Jose Berrios starts the Yankees game.
I’m going to miss the start of the games, I’m playing tennis this morning, but will see most of it all.
The Phillies/Jays game is at Dunedin and on Sportsnet. Lineups:
Today’s Lineups
PHILLIES
BLUE JAYS
Justin Crawford – CF
George Springer – DH
Kyle Schwarber – DH
Andres Gimenez – SS
Bryce Harper – 1B
Vladimir Guerrero – 1B
Edmundo Sosa – SS
Daulton Varsho – CF
Garrett Stubbs – C
Alejandro Kirk – C
Otto Kemp – LF
Ernie Clement – 2B
Bryan De La Cruz – RF
Jesus Sanchez – LF
Liover Peguero – 2B
Nathan Lukes – RF
Carson DeMartini – 3B
Ben Cowles – 3B
C. Sanchez – LHP
Dylan Cease – RHP
The Jays/Yankees game is in Tampa and is on the YES Network and will be on MLB.TV.
Fort Myers, FL - February 23: Northeastern outfielder Mike Sirota makes the turn at third base. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
The Dodgers play two games at the same time on Saturday afternoon. Here is their roster for the road game of that split-squad schedule, against the Texas Rangers in Surprise.
Lineup
Alex Call LF Kyle Tucker DH Santiago Espinal 3B Dalton Rushing C Andy Pages CF Alex Freeland SS Nick Senzel 2B Ryan Ward 1B Zach Ehrhard RF
Jackson Ferris gets his second start of the spring, both on the road. He threw 16 pitches in his one inning last Sunday against the Seattle Mariners in Peoria.
Other pitchers
Will Klein made the trip, as did non-roster invitees Cole Irvin, Carlos Duran, Antoine Kelly, and Garrett McDaniels.
From the minor league side are Joseilyn Gonzalez (wearing number 88), Wyatt Crowell (89), Myles Caba (90), and Cam Day (91).
Other position players
Non-roster invitees Chris Newwell, Seby Zavala, and Nelson Quiroz each made the trip.
Others available from the minors are infielders Austin Gauthier (01), Jose Izarra (02), Jake Gelof (05), and Kyle Nevin (09), plus outfielder Damon Keith (08) and catcher Victor Rodrigues (07).
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 13: Edwin Diaz #3 of the Los Angeles Dodgers (R) participates with Tanner Scott #66 in a fielding drill during spring training workouts at Camelback Ranch on February 13, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Dodgers play two games at the same time on Saturday afternoon. Here is their roster for the home game of that split-squad schedule, against the Chicago Cubs at Camelback Ranch.
Lineup
Miguel Rojas 2B Freddie Freeman 1B Will Smith C Max Muncy 3B Teoscar Hernández LF James Tibbs RF Keston Hiura DH Noah Miller SS Michael Siani CF
Justin Wrobleski gets the start, vying for a potential spot on the opening day roster. The left-hander threw 12 pitches in one inning on Tuesday.
Other pitchers
Tanner Scott is set to make his 2026 Cactus League debut in this game, Edwin Díaz and Ronan Kopp are also listed to pitch, as are non-roster invitees Patrick Copen, Wyatt Mills and Jerming Rosario.
Active from the minor league side are Nick Nastrini (wearing number 91), Nick Robertson (97), Payton Martin (90), and Cody Morse (93).
Other position players
Non-roster invitees available for this game are outfielders Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, and Kendall George, and catchers Eliézer Alfonzo and Griffin Lockwood-Powell.
Outfielder Charles Davalan (88), last year’s 41st-overall draft pick, is up from minor league camp, as are outfielder Kole Myers (02) plus infielders Logan Wagner (96), Yeiner Fernandez (87), and Elijah Hainline (05), infielder/outfielder Mairoshendrick Martinus (01), and catcher Frank Rodriguez (06).
In his longest outing as a Missouri Tiger — a night that included two pickoffs, five straight scoreless innings, and the kind of tempo on the mound he hasn’t been able to have in nearly two years — left‑hander Javyn Pimental headlined Missouri’s 11–5 win over North Dakota State on Friday at Taylor Stadium.
The offense did its part with a four‑run fourth inning, but for Pimental, the night meant something different. It was his first win on this mound since April 20, 2024, after Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2025 season.
“I guess I don’t really say it was like a really big comeback story,” Pimental said. “Got the job done, I’m just pretty pumped about my outing.”
He opened the game with seven pitches, two strikeouts and a clean first inning, and he carried that rhythm through the next four frames. By the time Pimental reached the sixth, he had allowed just two hits and was sitting at only 58 pitches.
The trouble didn’t come until that sixth inning, when three walks loaded the bases and a shallow single finally pushed across North Dakota State’s first run. Even then, only one of the two runs charged to him was earned.
Still, the outing marked another step forward for a guy who hadn’t tried to work into the sixth inning in two years.
“I guess I’m out of shape,” Pimental joked. “But at the end of the day, I’m supposed to do that.”
Missouri didn’t have to wait long to give him support. Freshman Blaize Ward ripped a two‑run double into the right‑center gap in the first inning, scoring Jase Woita and Mateo Serna.
An errant throw in the third brought Woita home again, and the Tigers broke the game open in the fourth. Woita punched a two‑run single up the middle, and Tyler Macon followed with a two‑out triple down the right‑field line to make it 7–0.
Tigers coach Kerrick Jackson said the fourth inning was simply the Tigers’ lineup settling in.
“It was just a combination of going through the order multiple times and really understanding what [their starter] was doing,” Jackson said. “Then being able to lay off some of the pitches where he was getting us out early.”
Freshman right‑hander Eli Skidmore entered in the sixth with the bases loaded and one out. An infield error allowed another run to score, but he got a fielder’s‑choice groundout to escape the inning with a 7–2 lead. North Dakota State added one more in the seventh, but Missouri answered immediately with four runs of its own. A throwing error brought Ward home, and back‑to‑back singles from Isaiah Frost and Woita stretched the lead back to eight.
Missouri reliever Juan Villarreal handled the final two innings, striking out three and allowing only one hit. Both runs against him were unearned.
Ward finished 3‑for‑4 with a double, two RBI and two runs scored. Woita matched him with a 3‑for‑4 night of his own, driving in three and stealing his second base of the season. Cameron Benson added two hits and two runs, and Frost chipped in a pair of RBI.
Jackson said Ward’s consistency is already standing out. “He is the most consistent guy that we have,” Jackson said. “He owns the box. He’s comfortable in the box. And as he grows and gets stronger, he’s going to be a really, really good player in this league.”
The win pushed Missouri to 8–2 and marked its sixth straight victory — the program’s longest streak since early 2023. For Pimental, it was another sign that he’s finally back to being himself.
“I’ve never really been a guy to doubt,” Pimental said. “I knew as soon as I got back on that mound again… I was moving about my business.”
PHOENIX, AZ - JULY 12: National League All-Star Cliff Lee #33 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the third inning of the 82nd MLB All-Star Game at Chase Field on July 12, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We’ve reached the finals of the “Last Man In” free agent tournament! I took the last free agent signed before the season for the last 16 years and let the readers decide which was the best. And let’s face it, it was always going to come down to these two.
1.Cliff Lee, 2011
Accolades: Two All-Star teams, two top ten Cy Young Award finishes, 15th in MVP voting in 2011.
In his second stint with the Phillies, Lee made 106 starts and only walked 114 batters. The guy really did not like walking people.
2. Bryce Harper, 2019
Accolades: Two All-Star teams, three Silver Slugger awards, one MVP award, two top ten MVP finishes
After hitting into a career-high 18 double plays in 2024, Harper only hit five of them last year. What does this mean? I’m not sure.
RICHMOND, VA - JUNE 25: Griff McGarry #48 of the Reading Fightin Phils pitching during the game between the Reading Fightin Phils and the Richmond Flying Squirrels at The Diamond on Wednesday, June 25, 2025 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Matthew Mitrani/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
When the Nats selected Griff McGarry in the Rule 5 Draft, I was cautiously optimistic. He possesses some of the best stuff in the minor leagues, but has had trouble throwing strikes over the years. Last year, we saw a similar story with Evan Reifert. He had a nasty slider but was nowhere near the zone in Spring Training.
That meant the Nats returned Reifert to the Rays before he ever played a regular season game. There is a chance the same thing could happen with McGarry. However, McGarry had a dominant first outing of Spring Training where he pounded the zone and struck out two batters in a 1-2-3 inning.
In a wide open bullpen, McGarry probably has the best pure stuff. However, he walked almost 14% of hitters in AA last year as a starter. The crazy thing is that was a big improvement from 2024, when he walked an insane 24% of hitters. With not much to lose, the Nats took a shot on McGarry because his pure stuff grades out as some of the best in the minors.
Last night, we saw what happens when McGarry is throwing strikes. He has an upper 90’s fastball, but that served as a table setter for his insane breaking balls. McGarry has a natural feel for spin and he showed that last night.
He threw two separate breaking balls, a slider and a sweeper. Out of his 10 pitches, 8 of them were breaking balls. The sweeper has a ton of spin, averaging over 3,000 RPM’s last night. However, he threw his harder slider half the time and it got excellent results. McGarry was able to land the pitch in the zone and get whiffs.
Nasty first outing from Griff McGarry who struck out two. Breaking ball heavy attack from the Rule 5 pick
It is worth noting that McGarry faced non big leaguers, but if he is around the zone, he can get anyone out. McGarry’s biggest nemesis is his own control rather than the hitters at the plate. Out of all pitchers that threw last night, McGarry had the third highest Stuff+ rating. Stuff+ measures the velocity and movement of a pitch and puts a grade on it, with 100 being average.
Again, McGarry is still a high variance arm. I would not be surprised if he finds his way into a high leverage role, but I also would not be surprised if he was returned to the Phillies pretty quickly. It is all about finding the zone for McGarry.
Last year McGarry found the zone enough to have success. In 21 starts, he posted a 3.44 ERA despite shaky control. McGarry is similar to Clayton Beeter, with both only needing fringy control to have success.
When McGarry goes on heaters, he is totally unhittable. There was a time last season when he struck out 23 batters in two starts. Crucially, he only walked one batter in 11 innings in those two starts. It is so tantalizing to see what McGarry can do when he is throwing strikes.
One thing I have a minor question about is how he will transition to the bullpen. The Phillies moved him to the bullpen in 2024, and he had his worst year as a pro, with his walks getting out of control. When he went back to starting last year, the results got better. Was that due to mechanical tweaks or is McGarry more comfortable starting?
If he is more comfortable starting, that could be problematic. He profiles much better as a reliever due to his strike-throwing issues and breaking ball heavy approach. The Nats are going to have to help him learn to prepare as a reliever because that is the role he will be filling this year.
McGarry seemed comfortable in the bullpen last night, but this will be something worth monitoring. He turns 27 in June, so now is the time for Griff McGarry to be unleashed. As a Rule 5 pick, he is going to have to stick in the big leagues for the entire season if the Nats want to hold on to him. Given the Nats are not going to be a contender, there will be room for growing pains here.
In Boston, Paul Toboni actually had a lot of success finding value in the Rule-5 Draft. Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock were both Rule 5 picks and are now key pieces to the Red Sox bullpen. Hopefully, McGarry can do the same thing in DC. He certainly has the raw stuff to be a big leaguer, which we saw last night. For McGarry, it will be all about finding the zone.
Detroit Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle bats at live batting practice during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla. on Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
By this time of year, we’re often a bit exhausted with prospect lists and rankings. Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, and our own re-ranking of the Detroit Tigers farm system are already a month or more in the books. But FanGraphs does a particularly detailed job for the most part, and often Eric Longenhagen and his staff have some contrary takes that are worth considering.
On Friday, they dropped a new set of rankings and reports for the top 47 prospects in the Tigers system. Longenhagen labels the system one of the best in baseball and very hitter heavy. That last bit has rarely been remotely the case for this system, even over the past decade of renewed emphasis on young, cost-controlled talent.
There are no real surprises at the top, as you’d expect. Basically the whole industry thinks Kevin McGonigle is the best pure hitter in the minor leagues, and one of the best in years. He and center fielder Max Clark draw 60 FV grades, while shortstop prospect Bryce Rainer gets a 55 FV grade, and the catcher-first base combination of Josue Briceño and Thayron Liranzo both get 50 FV grades. All five were on FanGraphs earlier release of their national top 110 prospects rankings.
We won’t both with much of a rundown of their reports. You can find the whole article available here for free and it is a comprehensive look at the system, with more emphasis on some of the teenaged international free agents than we’re able to produce. On the top five ranked prospects, we’ll just note that it’s good to see at least one national site didn’t completely panic over Thayron Liranzo’s tough 2025 season. The fact that Liranzo shook off the injuries and personal losses that marked his first tour with the Double-A Erie SeaWolves and got in outstanding condition over the offseason bodes well for a better 2026.
Where things get interesting is that FanGraphs only has the Tigers with two 45 FV caliber players in teenaged outfielder Cris Rodriguez and 2025 first round teenaged shortstop Jordan Yost. We agree on both, and suspect that like Kevin McGonigle, there’s a bit of underestimation going on in regard to Yost’s power potential. Everyone agrees he’s a very advanced defensive shortstop with good plate discipline and outstanding contact ability for his age. The question is offensive impact, and it will take a few years, perhaps, to see how that plays out.
Still, that’s only two 45 FV players. Most other sites have included some of Hao-Yu Lee, Max Anderson, Andrew Sears, and even teenaged pitcher Kelvis Salcedo and shortstop Franyerber Montilla in that 45 FV tier. We also have lefty Jake Miller up in that group, unlike basically anyone else. If he doesn’t turn into a good bullpen arm or backend starter over the next two years, you can roast Brandon for that one, but we’re pretty convinced he’s got the goods and just needs to get beyond the hip issues that plagued him last season and for which he had surgery in the offseason.
Notable on the rankings is the number of international free agents who haven’t yet come stateside (shoutout to Alysa Liu). We don’t rank and report on too many of those players unless they’re really known quantities with a lot of data available, because we won’t see them play much until they reach the Florida State League. FanGraphs has more resources, obviously.
Beyond Cris Rodriguez, the Tigers top IFA prospect, and right-hander Kelvis Salcedo, who impressed with advanced stuff and good strike throwing in Lakeland last year, FanGraphs has numerous other IFA prospects and reports that are interesting.
We loved the signing of center fielder Randy Santana in their 2026 signing class last month. His huge speed and power toolkit is exciting, and FanGraphs has him 14th in the system, right after 19-year-old shortstop prospect Angel De Los Santos. They both get 40+ FV grades, as do catcher Manuel Bolivar and shortstop Oscar Tineo, both top names from the 2026 class along with Santana. Those are all key names to watch for the longer term future of the Tigers’ system.
The Tigers IFA signing class last month is the most highly and widely regarded we’ve ever seen for the organization. They’re all years away, but hopefully that’s a good sign that Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg’s adjustments to the Tigers international department will pay dividends in the years ahead.
Starting pitcher Jhonan Coba, still 19 and due to pitch in Single-A this summer, presumably, is another name worth watching from recent IFA classes, as are teenage shortstop Luis Aguilera, and center fielders Josueth Quinonez and Andy Mata. All get just 35+ grades at this point, but they’re just getting started.
As noted, the long-term question in the system is whether they’re going to develop enough pitching. Adding McGonigle, Clark, Briceño, and hopefully Bryce Rainer and Thayron Liranzo in the years ahead should give the Tigers a really strong positional group to work with for a long time. They have a lot of very young talent already that could form the next wave. What they need is some of their litany of talented but banged up arms drafted over the last three years to get beyond the injuries and start developing as hoped.
Right now, we have Miller, Salcedo, Andrew Sears, and right-handers Lucas Elissalt and Jaden Hamm as the best of the bunch. Obviously Hamm’s stock has taken a real hit over the past two seasons as he was scraping the end of top 100 lists not too long ago. Elissalt was the low key breakout pitching prospect of 2025, and needs only to get stronger and refine his command a little more to leap toward the top of the Tigers’ system.
The Tigers appear pretty well stocked with bats for the long haul. Hopefully the pitchers take a turn for the better. Only time will tell on that front.
We are now a bit over a week into Spring Training games and at last, Friday’s game featured just about everyone who will be in the Opening Day lineup March 26 (except Seiya Suzuki, who’s already back in Japan for the start of the World Baseball Classic).
There aren’t many question marks about the Cubs this spring, but here are a few things yet unsettled.
Matt Shaw as an outfielder
Shaw hasn’t actually made very many plays in his few games in the outfield so far this spring. He did make a misplay the other day at Sloan Park. So I can’t really tell you how he’s looked; there just isn’t enough of a sample size.
I will note that Shaw has played only right field so far — no left field, and I suspect he won’t be tried in center. Mostly, I would expect him to play second base and third base to give Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman and Dansby Swanson a break. The team could also use him as a right-handed hitting DH from time to time.
Porter Hodge, yikes
Hodge was injured much of 2025 after having a strong 2024 and finishing that year as the Cubs closer.
So many were willing to give Hodge a mulligan for last year due to the injuries, and hoped that his natural talent would get him a middle-inning or setup spot behind Daniel Palencia, who’s already been named the closer to start the 2026 season.
Hodge has not pitched well. Again, we are talking about a very small sample size, just three games and two total innings. But he has faced 17 batters and walked seven and allowed four hits, which… is not good. He’s thrown 70 total pitches to those 17 batters, and only 33 of those 70 were strikes.
I suspect Hodge will get another outing or two, but if this keeps up he’ll be starting the season at Triple-A Iowa.
Gavin Hollowell looks good
Hodge was a likely member of the Opening Day roster, but now that’s almost certainly changed.
Hollowell has stepped up and could take that place. Once again, the sample size is only three games, but in three innings Hollowell has allowed one run and struck out eight of the 11 batters he’s faced.
As we all know, relievers are fungible and Jed Hoyer’s front office has done a pretty good job of identifying guys from the scrap heap that have become useful. Hollowell could be one of those guys. He’s 28, so maybe the Cubs could get a couple of decent years out of him.
Dylan Carlson appears to have taken the lead in the fourth-outfielder mix
Carlson went 1-for-2 with a walk in Friday’s win over the Guardians and overall is 5-for-10 this spring with a double and four walks. The usual small sample size caveats are in place here, but it’s notable to me that Carlson was given the DH nod Friday instead of Chas McCormick, who is 4-for-14 so far this spring.
Michael Conforto, who was just signed, should get some playing time soon.
With Tyler Austin now out for “months” (as noted by Craig Counsell) after knee surgery, it appears to me that of the trio of Carlson, McCormick and Conforto, two of them will make the Opening Day roster.
The Carson Kelly/Miguel Amaya tandem continues to hit
Cubs catchers batted .250/.307/.442 with 29 home runs in 2025 in 641 PA. Of those PA, 501 belonged to Kelly and Amaya (with the rest to Reese McGuire).
Kelly and Amaya have combined to go 6-for-17 (.353) this spring with a double and a home run. Spring numbers, yes, small sample size, but I think these two can hit as well as they did last year. Perhaps a bit of a dip from Kelly, who had a career year in 2025, but Amaya looks like he can finally put everything together, as long as he stays healthy.
Those are a few of the things I’ve seen so far this spring. What have you noticed?
SURPRISE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 17: MacKenzie Gore #1 of the Texas Rangers poses for a portrait during photo day at Surprise Stadium on February 17, 2026 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, LSB.
Shawn McFarland has three observations from another Rangers spring training game, one in which MacKenzie Gore left the beats impressed.
GOODYEAR, AZ - FEBRUARY 19: Joey Cantillo #54 of the Cleveland Guardians poses for a photo during the Cleveland Guardians photo day at Goodyear Ballpark on Thursday, February 19, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Nic Antaya/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
We are finally back. Now a week into Spring Training, quite a few pitchers are showcasing a lot of intriguing tweaks and adjustments to their arsenals, starting with Gavin Williams.
First off, a quick shoutout to TJStats for chart images and more! A more than worthwhile site that you should use throughout baseball season.
Secondly, I *WILL NOT* be looking into a pitcher’s velocity unless it is substantially up or down. We will call this the Doug Nikhazy rule.
Gavin showcased a sinker at times in 2025, going to it less than 7% of the time, but in his first Spring start, it was heavily featured and likely lends to the belief that he will lean on it more in 2026. It was mislabeled at times on Statcast on Tuesday against LA and only tracked four sinkers, labeling three others fastballs, but thanks to the TJStats daily ‘Pitch Editor’, I was able to switch over the fastballs that matched the sinker profile, and came out with a quality breakdown of where Gavin’s sinker is at heading into the season.
Gavin’s sinker last season averaged 9.7 inches of induced vertical break and 15.1 inches of arm-side run. He went to it almost exclusively against right-handed hitters. In his first outing of the Spring, he turned to it against just righties, and it profiled with better shape, generating 11.7 inches of induced vertical break and 16.4 inches arm-side. Similar to his cutter last season, I expect his sinker to take a step forward in usage this season as he continues to round out his arsenal.
Now we’ll take a look at another Guardians starting pitcher, Slade Cecconi, who showcased more aggressive changes in arsenal in his first outing, and I am very excited about it.
Above shows the difference in movement patterns between Cecconi’s slider and cutter from 2025 to his first outing in the Spring. Cecconi’s cutter got him into quite a bit of trouble when he used it last season. It often turned into a cement mixer and hovered in the middle of the plate far too often, getting barreled at a 20% rate. In his outing on Wednesday, Cecconi’s cutter worked along an axis identical to his 4-seam (1:15), finding a more stable horizontal axis. His slider also generated nearly three inches more glove-side break with less induced vertical break.
He slider went through a more pronounced change. It works along a better horizontal axis, and in doing so, it’s become more sweeper-like. Cecconi generated more horizontal separation between his cutter and slider during his outing where it was more of a diagonal drop last season. This is a much needed change for Cecconi, whose struggles to work across the zone with his breaking pitches got him hit hard throughout 2025. He will need to utilize his slider more consistently to do this (3.1% usage in ‘25), and with a far better shape (106 TJStuff+ on 2/25, 98 TJStuff+ in 2025).
BULLPEN NAMES TO WATCH
Shawn Armstrong showcased his good cutter/sweeper combo in his first outing on Wednesday
Expect Armstrong to be a strong help along the back-end of the ‘pen. Gaddis will need him.
Cody Heuer has struggled substantially early in his first couple outings this Spring.
31.4% overall zone-rate and 30% walk rate across 10 batters faced…not great!
Franco Aleman’s two appearances have been split results
First outing saw better command with swing and miss on slider
control woes continued in second outing; allowed a home run and walked two batters, struggling to locate his secondaries still
SPOT START SQUAD WATCH
Will Dion: 2 IP // 3 K // 0 ER // 4 whiffs // 28.6% whiff rate // .225 xwOBACON
Showcased great command, quality low 90s fastball with good VAA traits; slider looks to be improved; likely this year’s Nikhazy
Austin Peterson: 1.1 IP // 1 K // 1 BB // 3 whiffs // 4 ER // .565 xwOBACON
Lived in the heart of the plate; does not have the stuff to venture inside the shadow; doesn’t have the stuff to get deep in counts to nibble
Doug Nikhazy: 2 IP // 1 K // 1 BB // 0 ER // 3 whiffs // .663 xwOBACON
Breaking stuff continues to be impressive
fastball continued to look fringy; both induced whiffs and got smoked
WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 16, 2025: Carson Benge #3 of the New York Mets looks on during the third inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Washington Nationals at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 16, 2025 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
From the very beginning of the offseason, David Stearns—normally one who plays things extremely close to the vest—has been fairly clear whenever the subject of the 2026 outfield comes up. He has repeatedly stated that 2024 first round pick Carson Benge will enter spring training with a chance to win a starting job for the major league team. The team’s actions over the past few months—trading franchise stalwart Brandon Nimmo, pursuing exactly one starting outfielder (ultimately settling on center fielder Luis Robert Jr.) while leaving the other empty spot wide open—have only further proven that Stearns has not been misleading us on the subject. And while he is facing some competition this spring, it’s not exactly a murder’s row of alternative options—recent signings MJ Melendez and Michael Tauchman would probably be the likeliest alternatives, but they are both players who have some strengths but may be better served as backups.
Indeed, while Benge is not an absolute lock to make the team—there is always the chance that the Mets could decide he needs a little bit more time in the minors—it seems clear that the front office’s hope is that he will head north with the club as their starting right fielder. And if he happens to not make the team right out of camp, it’s fair to assume that he would still get the call to the majors before too long.
It’s not hard to see why the Mets are enamored with Benge. After being drafted with the 19th overall pick out of Oklahoma State in the 2024 draft, the 23-year-old outfielder was sensational in his first full pro season last year. He started off his year in Brooklyn, whose park has a history of being murderously tough for left-handed hitters specifically. It was perhaps a sign of how high Benge’s stock would ultimately rise that he was up to the task of playing in that difficult environment, as he put up a 168 wRC+ in 60 games in High A ball along with a respectable .178 ISO despite hitting just four home runs. Once he received a midseason promotion to Binghamton, his power numbers surged, as he put up a .254 ISO and doubled his home run output from his Brooklyn numbers in almost half the games played in Double A ball. That dramatic surge against improved competition caused the Mets to once again promote him, though shortly after arriving at Syracuse he was hit in the hand with a pitch and subsequently missed a few weeks. His numbers upon returning to finish out the season were not particularly impressive (more on that in a bit), but those couple weeks of middling production were not enough to dampen an exceptional season. Splitting time across three different levels, he put up a .281/.385/.472 slash line with 15 home runs (good for a 150 wRC+) and 22 stolen bases across 116 total games.
All of these factors have caused Benge to dramatically rise on various prospect lists this offseason. Virtually every reputable outlet has ranked him as the second best prospect in the Mets’ farm system, behind only Nolan McLean. In overall MLB prospect rankings, he has come in at 16th by MLB Pipeline, 19th by Baseball America, 15th by ESPN, 18th by The Athletic, 10th by Baseball Prospectus, and 21st by FanGraphs. Virtually all of the write-ups from these outlets have painted a similar picture of a player who is solid in virtually all aspects of the game (if not outright great in any one particular area). Evaluators have also praised Benge’s outfield defense, suggesting that he could prove to be an above-average center fielder. While the Mets may end up giving him some playing time there, the acquisition of Robert means that the majority of his playing time in 2026 will almost certainly come in right field, where he should grade out as a plus defender.
Despite all the factors working in Benge’s favor, there has been a somewhat surprising lack of excitement from Mets fans—a group that, historically, has not had problems with placing grand expectations upon prospects with much lesser pedigrees—at the idea of him playing a major role for the 2026 team. Some have outright questioned the logic of almost handing him a starting job right out of the gate and called for Stearns to acquire another outfielder before the season starts. Two primary reasons have been cited for this skepticism: 1) Benge’s poor numbers in his limited Triple A action last year suggest that he could use more seasoning before being fully ready for the big leagues, and 2) putting this much confidence in any rookie with zero major league experience is a big gamble for a team with playoff aspirations.
Let’s address both of these points. The first one is fairly easy to counter: While a cursory glance at Benge’s Baseball-Reference page will suggest that he struggled in Syracuse, the actual batted ball data shows that he was hitting the ball about as hard and consistently as he was in the lower levels. MLB.com’s Sam Dykstra provided the specific numbers recently:
Benge ran an above-average 105.9 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity at Triple-A, topped out at 110.4 mph and made contact on 87 percent of his pitches inside the zone. (MLB average for Z-contact was 83.2 percent.) His chase rates were fine, too, if closer to average, while his 18.4 percent K rate and 8.7 percent walk rate didn’t scream struggle. Instead, Benge may have fallen victim to rough luck in a smallish sample – his .188 BABIP was significantly lower than his marks of .372 and .337 at High-A and Double-A, respectively.
When taking these factors into account, it makes sense that the front office was not particularly discouraged by Benge’s showing in Syracuse. Perhaps something about his performance in spring training will suggest that he needs more minor league time after all, but pointing to his bad topline numbers in 24 Triple A games without looking at the larger context is not an effective argument against his major league readiness.
The second point is perhaps a bit more complicated. Because yes, trusting an unproven rookie inherently carries some amount of risk. Benge wouldn’t be the first top prospect who couldn’t translate his minor league dominance into major league production, and he wouldn’t be the last. And if he proves to not be ready, the Mets will be in a bit of pickle, as they might well have a major hole in their outfield. But let’s consider a couple of factors here:
Given the additions the Mets have made to the offense this offseason—Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, the aforementioned Robert—there are, on paper, relatively few gaping holes in the lineup right now. Benge will probably start out the season in the bottom third of the lineup, where there won’t be all that much pressure on him to put up huge numbers. If he winds up being the great player the Mets expect him to be and they move him up in the order, great. But it’s not an outright requirement for the team to be successful.
Recall who Benge would be replacing in the outfield. Brandon Nimmo, despite showing clear signs of decline, was broadly fine in 2025 but no more than that. He put up a 114 wRC+ last year with defensive statistics (0 OAA) that, quite frankly, probably undersell the level of degradation in his outfield skills. Benge is a very, very safe bet to be a significantly better defensive outfielder than Nimmo in 2026. If he provides even comparable offensive numbers (i.e. slightly above average production), he will almost certainly prove to be an upgrade over what the Mets got out of the position in 2025. And that is a somewhat measured projection for Benge—there is upside for a much greater level of offensive output.
Again, the Mets would not be in an ideal position if Benge proves to not be ready for a major league role—but they wouldn’t necessarily be helpless. Tauchman or Melendez are not particularly exciting options, but maybe one of them proves to be at least passable if pushed into a more meaningful role. Maybe Baty proves that he can be at least passable in the outfield and the Mets just end up playing him there more. Maybe one of the team’s other top prospects with outfield flexibility—A.J. Ewing, Ryan Clifford, maybe even Jacob Reimer—becomes ready at some point in the season and can take the job. Or—worst case scenario—the Mets may need to address the hole at the trade deadline, where it is usually not particularly hard to find decent corner outfield options available. Point being, there will likely be ways for the team to pivot if they need to.
Here is what I would consider the most important point: Every front office makes decisions about which risks they are willing to accept and which ones they are not, but virtually every player the Mets might have acquired to play over Benge would have carried some type of risk. Stearns could, for instance, have decided that the safety of acquiring a proven major league contributor would have made it worth it to beat the Yankees’ offer for Cody Bellinger and place in one of the corner outfield spots. That might make us feel more comfortable projecting a baseline level of production in 2026, but the team would then be assuming risk in potentially locking themselves into a player for more years than they were comfortable with. He could have signed a smaller name to a lower-level contract—Mike Yastrzemski or someone of that ilk—but then you are locking out the potential higher upside that a player like Benge provides. You can do this with essentially every other player the Mets could realistically have pursued. So when the subject of risk comes up with Benge, we should acknowledge the potential fallbacks, but we should also note that the risk of placing trust in a top 20 prospect is not actually THAT high when compared to the risks that alternative moves would have held. It’s just a different type of risk—but nevertheless a calculated one.
All of this is an extremely long-winded way of making a pretty simple point: we should be very, very excited to see the Mets giving Benge runway to be a major contributor to the team right out of the gate this year. Given his prospect pedigree, the median scenario we should be hoping for is that he will at least be a solid starting player—someone who perhaps needs to sit against some tough lefties to start but provides good offensive and defensive value on the whole. And again: the upside for even greater outcomes is there. Along with McLean, Benge could well be a leading candidate for National League Rookie of the Year (and it is worth noting that either of those two players winning the award would grant the Mets a PPI draft pick in the following year’s draft, provided they are both on the major league roster for most of the season). And given the emotional blow of the team losing numerous homegrown core players this offseason, the prospect of Benge coming up this year and cementing himself as a stalwart piece for the franchise’s new core should be one that puts a smile on every fan’s face.
SURPRISE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 23: Bobby Witt Jr. #7 of the Kansas City Royals at bat during the sixth inning of a Spring Training game against the Chicago Cubs at Surprise Stadium on February 23, 2026 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
“We talked about it earlier in the spring,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro told reporters in Surprise, Arizona. “We talked and toyed with the idea of all different lineups. But this, specifically, was to give him a chance (to bat leadoff), because I’m pretty sure he is going to do it with Team USA (in the upcoming World Baseball Classic). Let him do it for a couple of days before he leaves.”
The goal was to work on Garcia’s first-step quickness and both his backhand and forehand plays. There’s a reason third base is called the hot corner, and if Garcia can see as much quick spin and create as many angles as he can in practice, theoretically, it makes it easier in the game.
“The spin when the right-handed hitter hits to my backhand is a little bit tough in the game because it’s the big leagues and they hit it hard,” Garcia said. “So it’s kind of hard to read it. But when I moved to third, I just started waiting for the ball, don’t go forward too much because they hit it too hard. And then when we [went] to the forehand, we [were] trying to work on my first step, right after I got the ball with the backhand. That’s going to help me because I can get to more balls in the hole.”
“It’s just a reminder of how strong our culture is, which we take a lot of pride in,” president of baseball operations and general manager J.J. Picollo said. “We want to celebrate accomplishments and celebrate our team, but there are times when we need to celebrate individual accomplishments, and this day is one of them.”
Joining Witt and Garcia as the next potential core pieces of Kansas City’s lineup are Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen, who had wildly different debuts last season. Caglianone arrived in June with a heaping helping of hype following his legendary collegiate career and speedy ascent through the minors, but he faceplanted as a rookie, ranking as one of the least productive hitters in baseball. That Cags was exposed so harshly was not a massive surprise, considering his hyper-aggressive approach. Now it’s on the talented 23-year-old to flush his forgettable debut and figure out how to tap into his tremendous raw power more reliably against the best arms on the planet.
The Royals’ top-tier talent is good enough to claim a playoff spot. It will be up to the supporting cast, and possibly two young hitters who could step forward. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is an MVP candidate. A healthy season from lefthander Cole Ragans could result in Cy Young Award votes. The Royals developed third baseman Maikel Garcia, first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and lefthanders Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron into their best selves. The X-factor for Kansas City is the performance of second-year slugger Jac Caglianone and rookie catcher Carter Jensen. Breakthroughs from them would lengthen the lineup.
Feb 26, 2026; Peoria, Arizona, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Bryce Miller (50) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
Hello friends, and welcome to the weekend!
Last night the Mariners dueled in the desert with the fearsome Snakes, losing 3-1 in what Kate aptly described as a snoozer.
Speaking of sleep, I’m coming to you live after finally getting a decent night’s rest. I am a pretty picky sleeper. Not on purpose, mind you. I just need to be in a bed, in an adequately cold room with minimal light and sound (except my requisite white noise machine or app) and I will generally sleep fine. But I am not the kind of person who can sleep on couches, recliners, cars, trains, or planes.
How about you? Are you someone who can sleep just about anywhere, or are you a more restless soul like myself? Sound off in the comments.
In Mariners news…
After a lost season last year, Ryan Bliss is back and ready to prove that he deserves a spot on the big league roster. Adam Jude at The Seattle Times has the story. ($)
Bryce Miller opened up about his elbow issues and why he decided to forego surgery this winter. It turns out that, like all of us, even Miller himself was initially confused why he shouldn’t just get the procedure done.
Could Colt Emerson make a serious run at an Opening Day roster spot this year? Daniel Kramer has the latest.
Matt Monagan at MLB dove into the legend that Negro Leagues sensation Josh Gibson hit a 600+ foot home run in Puerto Rico.
Players around the league were asked about the strangest superstitions they’ve seen in the league. I feel like I’m learning a lot about Logan Gilbert today.
Anders’ picks…
I am all the way here for the island vibes. 2027 can’t come soon enough!
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 27: Randy Vásquez #98 of the San Diego Padres delivers a pitch to the Colorado Rockies in the first inning of a spring training game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 27, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
When the San Diego Padres and the Colorado Rockies meet in a road matchup, it usually results in a high number of hits and an equally high number of runs. That was not the case on Friday when the Padres traveled to Scottsdale, Ariz. to play the Rockies at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. The game turned into a pitchers duel and it was decided in the bottom of the ninth when Zac Veen hit a walk-off home run to give Colorado a 3-2 win. San Diego managed just four hits in the game with three of those hits coming from the starting lineup. Jake Cronenworth, Ramon Laureano and Sung-Mun Song got on base with hits and the fourth hit was added by Samad Taylor, who had an RBI-single in the top of the eighth inning. The Padres return to the Peoria Sports Complex to host the Seattle Mariners in their second meeting of the spring on Saturday at 12:10 p.m.
Padres News:
AJ Cassavell of Padres.com looks at four big questions facing manager Craig Stammen and the Padres with Opening Day less than a month away.
San Diego has been using the ABS challenge system frequently throughout Spring Training and that is helping the Padres get a feel for how they will use it during the regular season. Luis Campusano, who used the system in the minors last season, has appeared to be the most comfortable and successful, but fans have seen Freddy Fermin, Ty France and Nick Castellanos all have calls successfully overturned.
Sung-Mun Song had his second hit in as many games against the Rockies and appears to be getting a handle on the velocity at the MLB level. He should get more opportunities to see live in-game pitching in the coming weeks as Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts head to the World Baseball Classic.
Randy Vasquez had another strong spring outing for the Padres with no runs and no hits allowed over 2.2 innings. San Diego was unable to pull off a win, but Vasquez appears to be taking advantage of his opportunity to be the fourth starter in the Padres rotation.
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