What’s This Team’s Deal?
Last year, this article began with a picture of a completely disheveled Tropicana Field, still unusable six months after Hurricane Milton. After sustaining significant water and wind damage, the stadium has been renovated and the Rays will return to Tropicana Field in less than a month.
The capacity of this renovated Tropicana Field will be reduced due to the damage. But that’s nothing new to the Rays. For several years, the upper decks of Tropicana Field were closed off due to lack of interest. This lack of interest is almost entirely due to stadium’s location far from downtown Tampa, as has been addressed many times. The Bucs are closer to downtown and manage a near-sell-out crowd despite relatively similar recent performance (outside of a 2021 Super Bowl… I don’t want to talk about it.) But, looking at this year’s roster in comparison to the rest of the division, I don’t know how Rays fans could find too much intrigue in this team, which was hit hard by a fire sale in 2024. The storm before the storm, if you will.
The next storm the team has to weather is deciding whether to play baseball in Tampa or St. Petersburg. This decision will be tantamount to any other decision the team makes before the conclusion of the 2028 season, when the lease runs out.
How Good Are They?
They’re probably just fine. Which is best case scenario for a team that recently gave away a perennial All-Star and who’s marching out a guy straight off two serious arm injuries as their ace. Shane McClanahan was one of the best in the game prior to his Tommy John surgery, clocking elite velocity and extension, resulting in a top-eight percentile whiff rate among all pitchers. The problem for the Rays? His surgery was on August 15, 2023. A lot’s happened since then, but McClanahan is still just 29 years of age and shows a lot of promise to go with an 8.0 career WAR in fewer than 3 seasons.
Behind McClanahan in the rotation is Drew Rasmussen, who’s coming off of his first All-Star selection and first Cy Young vote (it was only one fifth-place vote, but still!) The 30-year-old stayed healthy, reliable, and kept innings short, tallying a WHIP of 1.02 over 150 innings. That’s all you can ask from a rotation pitcher, and McClanahan coming back takes some pressure off him. Ryan Pepiot, part of the return for sending Tyler Glasnow to LA to win a couple World Series titles, looks fine enough in the middle of the rotation, putting up an ERA+ slightly above average last year.
Offensively, the Rays are led by budding star Junior Caminero, who’s coming off of a 45 home run season and a berth in the Home Run Derby finals. Caminero, who’s still just 22 until July, had an OPS of .846 and the highest bat speed in baseball on his way to slashing .264/.311/.535. He can really spread the ball around with the best of them already… but don’t take my word for it, here’s his spray chart.
Elsewhere, Yandy Diaz is returning despite every talking head (and most of us on this site, including yours truly) booking his plane ticket at the trade deadline of 2025. Cedric Mullins, former Oriole, rejoins the division where he enjoyed a decade of very dependable play in Baltimore. Jon Aranda batted .316 and had an incredible Savant chart in his own right along with providing versatility by playing all over the infield. And while Gavin Lux may not have the shine as he did coming through the Dodgers’ farm, he’s still a good infield option for a team looking to replace the productivity of Brandon Lowe.
Outside of those stalwarts, though, the roster’s kind of a mess, having got there in the name of efficiency, with a front office eager to ship players out before big paydays in exchange for players who aren’t quite ready to appear on a Major League team yet. But if these aforementioned guys can contribute at close to their best, the team might be good. Good players performing at their best helps a team… who knew?
Most Likable Player: Junior Caminero
I was going to use Jon Aranda here because there’s a lot of value in a guy who can get on base as much as he does and play three positions. But I can’t deny a guy who placed sixth in baseball in home runs in a year that one of the top five was Aaron Judge, another was the best baseball player of our generation, and another was someone who left the stratosphere in catcher metrics. Caminero is good and it would be heartbreaking if Tampa decided to ship him off for prospects like the rest of their homegrown stars (besides one they did pay who will be on the restricted list for a very, very, long time).
Least Likable Player: DJ Kitty
I don’t have the heart to select former Red Sox reliever Steven Matz here because he was fine for the Sox and left on amicable terms. And Caminero is a Red Sox killer but he’s honestly an everyone-killer and so awesome to watch against any other team. But remember: it was DJ Kitty who was unable to pry Triston Casas’ first career home run from this Ryan Brasier lookalike.
Schedule Against the Red Sox
The Rays visit Fenway for a four-game series from May 7-10. A month later, on June 8-10, the Sox head to the Trop. Fenway then gets the first series post-All-Star game from July 17-19. Finally, the Red Sox travel down to Tampa in what could be an all-important series from September 18-20. It’s the Rays’ last home series of 2026 and the Red Sox’s last away series before heading back to Boston to finish the season out.
Season Prediction
Overall, this is probably a last place team, but they’re better than most last place teams and their overall result likely hinges on just how extraordinary their star power performs. No matter how good Caminero is, though, this team could use a Tyler Glasnow, or Randy Arozarena, or either Lowe, or maybe a half dozen more players that have graced the Trop — or Steinbrenner Field — in recent years. When the front office wants to ask why the team went from nearly 100 wins to to 77 in 2025, they only need to look within.
PREDICTION: 79-83, 5TH IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST