Category: Baseball

Three Is Just a Number

– byMario Crescibene

Major League Baseball honors three players with league-wide commemorative days. Larry Doby isn’t one of them. I wanted to know why — despite integrating the American League — MLB refuses to honor Larry Doby with his own day. So I reached out to the Cleveland Guardians and Major League Baseball to find out why.

The Guardians coordinated with MLB and provided an official response:

Major League Baseball has league-wide days for three individual players – Jackie Robinson, Roberto Clemente, and Lou Gehrig.  While there are a lot of players who have made an enormous impact on the game both on and off the field, MLB has saved the significant distinction of a league-wide tribute to these three select players.  They were selected because:

1. Jackie was the first player in all of baseball to break the color barrier
2. Gehrig for his courageous fight against ALS which is still a degenerative disease that MLB and its clubs raise money and awareness for
3. Clemente, who meant an enormous amount to the community of Latino players and fans.  Clemente lost his life in tragic fashion as he was bringing supplies to earthquake victims and as a result, MLB honors him each year with a special day and an award recognizing the social responsibility efforts of its players.

The league response highlighted the ways in which they do honor Doby:

After his retirement, MLB hired Doby where he worked in several capacities… for 13 years (1990-2003), making significant contributions to the office… Major League Baseball has [also] honored Larry Doby by creating the Larry Doby Award which is presented to the MVP of the Futures Game.

The response also pointed out that he is already a highly celebrated legend here in Cleveland:

The Guardians have honored Larry Doby regularly including a statue at Progressive Field, retired number #14, and establishing “Doby Day” playing home annually to honor his debut day July 5, including promotional item giveaways to fans. 

From the official response, one thing is abundantly clear: while Cleveland honors Larry Doby, the league he integrated does not. MLB says honoring three players league-wide is enough. Let’s explore Larry Doby’s impact on baseball, and see if he makes a case for a fourth.

Larry Doby integrated the American League in 1947, just eleven weeks after Jackie Robinson broke baseball’s color barrier. But those eleven weeks made all the difference in how they were prepared for what was coming.

Jackie Robinson had Branch Rickey — the Dodgers executive who spent years planning integration, who counseled Robinson on what to expect, and built an institutional support system around him. Robinson spent the 1946 season in the minor leagues, learning to handle the pressure and hostility before ever stepping onto a major league field. Larry Doby had none of that. No mentorship. No institutional plan. No preparation period. He was playing in the Negro Leagues one day and in the major leagues the next.

As Doby said:

“Jackie had it better in one way. When he went to spring training in 1946, he had a whole year to get adjusted. I came up in the middle of the season. I was 23 years old, and I had to perform immediately.”

“Nobody showed me the ropes. There was nobody to talk to, nobody to explain what to expect. I was completely alone.”

And when he met his new teammates, it wasn’t with open arms. While Jackie Robinson eventually found allies in the Dodgers clubhouse — teammates like Pee Wee Reese who famously put his arm around Robinson at Crosley Field, publicly showing solidarity — Larry Doby walked into a Cleveland clubhouse that wanted nothing to do with him:

“Some of the players turned their backs on me, wouldn’t shake my hand. It was a very lonely feeling. Even when you’re on the field, you’re alone.”

“There were some players who wouldn’t room with me, who wouldn’t sit next to me on the bus or in the dugout. I had to overcome that, and it was difficult.”

He received racist treatment as the Indians traveled across the country as well. While his white teammates checked into team hotels, ate at team restaurants, and traveled together, Doby was barred from joining them. Hotels refused him rooms. Restaurants turned him away. In city after city, he had to navigate unfamiliar streets searching for Black neighborhoods where he’d be allowed to sleep and eat. After night games, exhausted from playing, he’d have to find his own lodging — sometimes miles from the ballpark — while his teammates rested comfortably at the team hotel.

“I couldn’t eat with my teammates. I couldn’t stay in the same hotels. I’d have to go find a black family to stay with, or stay in a completely different hotel across town. And then the next day, I was expected to play like nothing was wrong.”

The racist treatment continued for years, but of course, despite every obstacle thrown in his way, Doby would go on to have a Hall of Fame career. In 1948, he hit .301 and helped lead Cleveland to the World Series, where he hit .318 and became the first Black player to hit a home run in a World Series game. His performance helped propel Cleveland to their last championship. From 1949 to 1955, he was named an All-Star seven consecutive times, leading the American League in home runs in 1952 and 1954, and in RBIs in 1954. Over his thirteen-year career, Doby compiled a .283 batting average with 253 home runs, 970 RBIs, and 1,533 hits before being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1998. His impact extended beyond his playing days as he became the second Black manager in major league history when he took over the Chicago White Sox in 1978, was posthumously awarded the Congressional Gold Medal in 2023, and was honored by Cleveland with a retired number 14 and a statue at Progressive Field.

And despite always being “the second African American” to play baseball, Larry Doby never let it make him bitter:

“For a while, every time they mentioned me, it was ‘Larry Doby, the second black player.’ I never worried about being second. I just wanted to be treated as a ballplayer, as a human being.”

Larry Doby just wanted to be treated as a ballplayer, as a human being. Major League Baseball should start by treating him like the legend he is. His humility, Hall of Fame career, and groundbreaking legacy demand a league-wide day celebrating his contributions to baseball. Instead, MLB honors him with a minor league award — for a man who never played in the minors. The only thing more absurd than that is claiming there’s logic to their three-player policy. Why three? Is it for three strikes? Three outs? Well there are four balls to a walk, so give Larry Doby his base.

July 5th should be Larry Doby Day league-wide. Every team, every stadium, every player wearing number 14. Because the league he integrated owes him more than a Futures Game trophy.

In Mariners news…

• All eyes are on Mariners pitching prospect Kade Anderson so far this spring and he’s done nothing but impress.

Kade Anderson strikes outa Mastrobuoni, Arozarena and Canzone pic.twitter.com/Asczzu3Xdu

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) February 14, 2026

• More on Kade Anderson, according to Shannon Drayer no one in the Mariners organization is willing to rule out the possibility of him pitching for the big club in 2026.

Around the league…

• The San Diego Padres signed recently released outfielder Nick Castellanos to a league-minimum deal yesterday.
• Longtime Rockies pitcher Germán Márquez has been freed from pitching purgatory as he signed a one-year deal with the Padres yesterday to compete for the fifth spot in San Diego’s rotation.
• The Minnesota Twins signed journeyman reliever Andrew Chafin to a minor league deal yesterday.
• The Baltimore Orioles traded cash to the Minnesota Twins for reliever Jackson Kowar.
• The repairs to the roof of Tropicana Field are on schedule to finish in time for Opening Day.
• The ABS challenge system is coming to league this season and with it comes some unique challenges for the broadcasts we the fans watch this season.

As an organizing principle, I don’t believe in ranking relievers highly (or at all, really) in good systems. Time and again, the efforts of the public baseball community to project reliever performance have been shown to be little more than random guess work. There are also just a higher volume of other good players in more valuable roles for us to talk about.

That’s not a universal rule though. Ryan Lambert checked in at 19 (right behind the only other reliever on the list, Dylan Ross) on our offseason top-25 and I like him a lot. We’re all familiar with the “don’t scout the statline” maxim, but man what a statline; Lambert hasn’t posted an ERA above 1.71 or a K-BB% below 21.5% at any level since being drafted out of Oklahoma in the 8th round of the 2024 draft. When he started the year at Brooklyn (for some reason), he posted a -0.48 FIP (not a typo) over 8 innings with 17 strikeouts and a single walk.

Fundamentally, Lambert is a 95-and-a-slider relief prospect. It’s a very special 95 though, an IVB-heavy offering that he consistently blows by batters at the top of the zone. The Mets organizationally place a lot of emphasis on fastball whiffs, and Lambert fits that philosophy to a T. As for the slider component, it’s a less consistent offering, stuck in a bit of a middle ground between a high-velocity breaker (it consistently sits in the mid-to-upper 80s) or a sweeper with bigger movement. There have been flashes here though, and its’ not unreasonable to project a bit more improvement with additional reps. I’d guess he eventually lands on a bit of a harder slider that pairs better with his vert-heavy 4-seam rather than a true sweeper which might be too visually distinct to fool batters.

Lambert is of course not perfect. In addition to the slider being a work in progress, his command remains a bit spotty, and his walk rate ballooned to 14.7% in Double-A last year. The impact of his fastball might be somewhat muted at higher levels by his over-the-top slot, an arm angle where this type of movement isn’t as surprising for hitters. All the usual pitching and relief prospect risks apply as well.

But when you’re building from a foundation as strong as Lambert’s primary offering in a system that has been as successful as the Mets have been recently in improving pitchers, I think you bet on this upside playing out. There’s legitimate late-inning upside here, even if most relief prospects we say that about wind up as much less. Expect Lambert to start in Triple-A this season and get a shot with the major league side before too long.

Plus he’s a metalhead who loves steak. I mean, how can you not love that.

Russell “Le Muscle” Martin is one of the greatest Canadian major leaguers of all-time. Breaking into The Show with the Dodgers in 2006, Martin came to the Yankees in December 2010, succeeding franchise icon Jorge Posada behind the plate.

Martin played two solid seasons in the Bronx behind the plate before signing with Pittsburgh, where he embarked on a remarkable resurgence that took him home to Toronto before finally ending back where he started, with the Dodgers.

Russell Nathan Coltrane Martin
Born: February 15, 1983 (East York, ON, Canada)
Yankees Tenure: 2011-2012

Martin was originally drafted out of a Montreal high school as a third baseman by the tragically defunct Montreal Expos in the 35th round of the 2000 MLB Draft. What could have been. He chose instead to go the college route and headed to Chipola College in Florida.

Two years later, he heard his name called again. This time, in the 17th round, the Los Angeles Dodgers selected the young Canuck. Still only 19 years old, Martin spent the next few seasons climbing the Dodgers’ farm system, combining a solid hit tool with excellent plate discipline and outstanding defense. Jay Jaffe describes the young Martin thusly:

“Shifted from third base after his first professional season, he took to the new position with the zeal of a convert. Martin combined outstanding athleticism — a strong arm, extraordinary lateral mobility, and elite pitch framing — with an intense competitive drive, an off-the-charts baseball IQ, and a natural leadership ability.”

Martin debuted in 2006 and finished ninth in National League Rookie of the Year voting, hitting for league average, showing off surprising speed for a backstop (10 stolen bases), and providing his usual excellent glovework. It would become his calling card throughout his long career, as sabermetrics’ gradual evolution in understanding ptch framing made Martin a favorite in the community.

Martin even found himself in position to do a solid for a future Hall of Famer. After the Dodgers wasted eight shutout innings from a 40-year-old Greg Maddux, Martin hit the first walk off home run of his career. In extra innings no less. It was the only run of the game. At least the Dodgers didn’t lose a game when one of history’s GOATs threw a masterpiece for them.

Martin toiled behind the plate for LA through the 2010 season, when the Dodgers inexplicably non-tendered him. It did not take long for the Yankees to swoop in, as over the previous few years, pitch framing evaluation had swept through front office (with José Molina a key figure on the 2009 championship team). Officially, the Yanks signed him to a one-year deal on December 15th. But all of baseball had known for days the Canadian catcher was headed to the Bronx.

Martin’s innate leadership abilities likely also played some part in the Yankees bringing him aboard. Longtime catcher and franchise great Jorge Posada was reaching the end of the road and the acquisition of Martin shunted Jorge over to DH for good (much to the icon’s chagrin, though he bore no ill will toward the well-respected Martin himself).

Martin put together two perfectly cromulent campaigns in pinstripes. In 2011, he posted 5.4 fWAR with 18 homers and a 100 wRC+, making the All-Star Game for the third time in his career (and the first since 2008). It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows, however. A .248 career hitter, Martin cratered at the dish in 2012, hitting a measly .211, albeit with a then-career-high 21 bombs and still drawing some walks. The result was Martin at least being within shouting distance of league average at the dish, and his glovework still led to 4.0 fWAR.

Martin also struggled in the postseason while a Yankee. In three combined playoff series, Martin hit .167 (8-for-48). He did, to give credit where it is due, provide the key blow in Game 1 of the 2012 ALDS against Baltimore.

Through eight frames, the Yanks and O’s were knotted at two. Leading off the ninth, Martin faced Orioles reliever Jim Johnson. Martin ran the count full before taking Johnson yard, depositing the ball in the left field bleachers at Camden Yards. That broke open the floodgates. The Yanks piled on four more runs to take the contest en route to eliminating the Orioles.

You’d be forgiven for thinking Martin’s glory days were rapidly approaching their end. He was heading into his age-30 season in 2013 and catcher isn’t exactly renowned as a position where guys have 20-year careers. Moreover, the Yankee front office was hesitant to extend Martin a contract offer that would have met his demands in terms of length and money, especially since they thought some combination of Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart could match his framing ability.

So instead, Martin left for Pittsburgh, where he put together a brilliant two-season stretch, helping lead the moribund Pirates to the playoffs both years. His homer in the victorious 2013 NL Wild Card Game off a shaken Johnny Cueto likely marks the height of Pirates baseball this century.

Meanwhile, Cervelli got hurt and suspended, and Stewart’s bat made Martin look like Yogi Berra as New York missed the playoffs in 2013; they had to quickly pivot and sign another catcher in Brian McCann the following offseason. (Amusingly, a resurgent Cervelli would follow Martin to Pittsburgh after the latter left the Steel City.)

After 2014, Martin headed north of the border to play for the Blue Jays as a returning national hero on a five-year, $82 million contract for their first two playoffs teams in over two decades, making his fourth and final All-Star appearance in 2015. He remained in Toronto through 2018, before returning via trade to where it all began in Los Angeles for one final season in 2019. Martin hit an NLDS Game 3 homer off the Nationals’ Hunter Strickland in what turned out to be his final career at-bat.

When he retired, Martin ranked first all-time among Canadian-born players in dWAR (16.5), third in bWAR (38.8), fourth in games (1,693), fifth in runs (803), sixth in hits (1,416), doubles (255) and total bases (2,262) and seventh in home runs (191). He also retired in possession of the record for Canadian players in postseason games (58), hits (38) and runs (24). Martin was inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame in 2025.

Perhaps my favorite Martin stat: he retired second all-time in “Canadian home runs,” that is to say home runs hit by a Canadian in a regular season or playoff game played in Canada. Martin’s 36 trailed only Larry Walker’s 58 when the former hung up the tools of ignorance. I suspect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has surpassed both by now.

Anyway, happy 43rd birthday to a former Yankee, a Hall of Very Good catcher (at the very least), and one of the greatest Canucks to ever play Major League Baseball.

References

Jaffe, Jay. “JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Russell Martin.” FanGraphs. December 18, 2024.

Matchett, David. “From a Canadian Baseball Researcher’s Notebook.” SABR.

Matthews, Wallace. “It’s official: Martin is a Yankee.” ESPN. December 16, 2010.

Russell Martin. Baseball-Reference.

“Russell Martin.“ Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.

Waldstein, David and Tyler Kepner. “Martin Leaves the Yankees for the Pirates.” New York Times. November 29, 2012.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

The San Diego Padres had a busy week and they ended it with a flurry of signings to bolster the roster. Spring Training opened with pitchers and catchers reporting, the rest of the big-league players reported to camp early or on time and the Padres signed Nick Castellanos, Griffin Canning and German Marquez providing the Friar Faithful with gifts on Valentine’s Day. It would appear the roster is set, but Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball wrote that decisions will have to be made regarding a couple players to make room on the 40-man roster to accommodate the new additions in her weekly recap. It is unknown at this time what those moves will be, but it appears the evaluation that takes place during Spring Training will be employed sooner than later. Of course, some players could be moved to the injured list, which would create room on the roster. Whatever manager Craig Stammen and general manager A.J. Preller decide, it seems the excitement that had been missing throughout the offseason is in full effect after one week of baseball activities.

Padres News:

• Barring a trade from Preller, it appears the roster moves are seemingly complete. If that is the case, perhaps the focus will now shift to extending the architect of the roster and the most successful stretch of baseball in Padres history. Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune makes the case that it would be prudent for San Diego to stick with Preller now and in the future.

Baseball News:

• The Los Angeles Dodgers added the best free agent closer available this offseason with a three-year, $69 million contract to make Edwin Diaz their closer. It was surprising that Diaz left the New York Mets considering reports that their offer was three years and $66 million. Diaz explained his reason for leaving stating the Dodgers did a good job of recruiting him.
• When the Boston Red Sox traded for Willson Contreras to play first base it seemed to be a move that spelled the end for first baseman Triston Casas. Boston has held on to Casas throughout the offseason even though it appears there is no place for him on the roster. Casas thinks he can be a fit on any team and maybe that is what the Red Sox are thinking as well.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks and their manager Torey Lovullo have seen enough after one week of Spring Training to name Merrill Kelly as the Opening Day starter against the Dodgers. It will be the first Opening Day start of Kelly’s career.

Beyond all the talk of splitters, sweepers, seam-shifted changeups, and the like, the best pitch in baseball remains the most elusive. The riding cutter, most famously the pitch that carried Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, remains one of the hardest pitches to pick up for pitchers, and one of the toughest to handle for hitters. With all-time great closer Kenley Jansen now in the fold, though in the later stages of his career, let’s take a look at his money making cut fastball.

The term “cutter” has been bastardized somewhat over the last 15 years or so, coming to refer to all kinds of pitches that are really just hard sliders. A cutter really does move gloveside without much drop, but an actual cut fastball is really a fourseam fastball with plenty of ride, but set with enough offset in either grip pressure or seam alignment, that it actually breaks late to the pitcher’s gloveside as well. Not too many pitchers, at least since these things started being tracked, have ever managed to throw a pitch like this.

Jansen got 18.8 inches of induced vertical break on the cutter in 2025. That’s better ride than most fourseam fastballs. It has enough backspin to drop 18.8 inches less than it should based on gravity alone. It also moves an average of 2.4 inches to his gloveside, making it a true cut fastball as opposed to just a straight riding fourseam fastball. That one pitch, averaging 92.8 mph, albeit with plus extension, and topping out at 96.7 mph, accounted for 81.4 percent of Jansen’s pitches in 2025. Even in it’s somewhat diminished form from his prime years, it still carried him to a 2.59 ERA last year, though his peripheral numbers were more worrisome.

Jansen will throw his slider here and there, and even less often, mix in a sinker against left-handed hitters as a change of pace, but for the most part you’re going to see cut fastball after cut fastball. That’s how he’s worked for most of his major league career, and he’s never really needed anything else.

He’s aided by crazy high spin rates for what is still essentially a fastball. He averaged 2610 rpms in 2025, which is absolutely elite by fourseamer standards. There aren’t enough pitchers capable of throwing a true cut fastball for there to even be a standard, but one of the great high spin fourseam pitchers of all time is now in-house as well in the form of Justin Verlander. The highest average fourseam spin rate Verlander has produced in the Statcast era was 2618 rpms back in 2018. Back in the days when the Tigers ace was routinely pumping 99-100+ late in games, no doubt he was averaging even higher rates, but spin wasn’t measured at the time.

The difficulty in throwing a true cut fastball is what makes it such a rarity. Casey Mize tried it early in his career, but struggled to control it. Even then, it didn’t really ride much, it mostly just had a bit of late cut. With a slider, sweeper, or curveball, all of which might move gloveside, you can hang on tighter and rip around or even on top of the ball in the case of a 12-6 curve. A cutter like Mariano or Kenley’s requires the fore and middle fingers to stay underneath the ball, while still throwing it hard and with as much spin as the top fourseam fastballs. That’s pretty hard to control. There aren’t even so many truly great riding fourseamers in the game, let alone having the wrist and finger dexterity to hold the ball slightly off-center and throwing it essentially the same way.

The true cut fastball always seems to come with a story. Mariano Rivera just started accidentally throwing the pitch in a catch session with teammate Ramiro Mendoza when he was still just a young reliever back in 1997. Rivera just throwing with his fourseam grip, but suddenly started producing a riding pitch that suddenly veered gloveside as Mendoza tried to catch it. They knew immediately that something strange was going on, but Rivera actually fought it because he was trying to throw a normal fourseamer and couldn’t stop getting that gloveside bite at the end. It took manager Joe Girardi to encourage him to just start throwing it, and the rest was history.

Jansen’s cut fastball has its own story, but it’s not too dissimilar. Jansen was signed out of Curacao by the Dodgers as an international free agent when he was 17 years old. He was a catcher at the time, even starting for Team Netherlands in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, and continued catching until well into his years in the minor leagues. Eventually, he just wasn’t hitting well enough, but his arm strength from behind the dish was impressive and the Dodgers encouraged him to convert to pitching late in the 2009 season. They saw enough to add him to the 40-man roster as a pitcher that winter, and he made his major league debut in July of 2010, only a year after his conversion. Now, 476 saves later, he’s a Detroit Tiger.

He stumbled upon the cut fastball in the same way Rivera did. In practice, his fourseam fastball was cutting late and he couldn’t figure out how to prevent it. Instead, Dodgers bullpen Mike Borzello recognized what was happening and put a stop to any attempts to straighten the fourseamer out. They began a process of refining the pitch instead, trying to tune his mechanics to maximize the spin, ride, and velocity of the pitch.

Like Rivera, Jansen doesn’t really know how he does it, and as he’s said repeatedly in interviews, it’s better not to try and understand it. He mentions that perhaps his long fingers might play a role, but clearly doesn’t want to unpack it. Guys who can do this, and it’s a small group, all seem to either want to keep it a secret, or simply don’t know why the pitch cuts. They all say they’re just trying to throw a fourseamer, and it just started cutting. Jansen mentions trying to finish through the pitch by just slightly getting around the side of it a bit more in the clip below, but earlier in his career he was still basically just shrugging and saying he didn’t know. High speed cameras and tons of data available have explained it a little, but even now I can’t really find another pitcher in the league who can do this. Plenty of guys have tried to throw this, and for the most part they just end up with a hard cutter that doesn’t ride.

I might theorize that trying to straighten out throws to second base as a catcher, rather than watching them tail back into the runner, may have something to do with his ability to do this so naturally. Still, it’s nowhere near that simple. A whole combination of elements from arm angle, finger shape and length, grip and release, to natural spin rate all come together to create a unicorn of a pitch, mastered by few. Add typically good command, a deceptive delivery, and tons of high leverage experience, and you have the ingredients of a future Hall of Famer.

Here are a few examples from the 2025 season below. Jansen will move the cutter up and down in the zone, so he’s not just trying to go up and away from right-handed hitters. The pitch doesn’t get same the amount of whiffs it did when he was sitting 94-95 mph with it, but despite the fact that he’s throwing it more than 80 percent of the time, it just doesn’t get barrelled up very often. Hitters know it’s coming,but it’s difficult to anticipate that explosive combination of ride and late, gloveside cut well enough to crush it. Opponents batted just .159 against the cutter in 2025. They also slugged a truly meager .293, though for once, his expected slugging percentage against the pitch was quite a bit higher, at .443.

Hard cutters aren’t so scarce anymore. Several teams, like the Cubs and the Brewers, are trying to teach this to guys who have the traits to potentially throw it well. But there are quite a few guys around the league who are already using a mid-90’s or faster cutter. Yet these are all just regular cutters. They’re good pitches, especially thrown with that kind of velocity, but they’re still distinct from Jansen’s in that they don’t having that induced vertical break.

Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase is the most obvious recent example of a really hard cutter for Tigers fans. But his cutter doesn’t ride either, it just cuts. That’s a really tough pitch at 98-100 mph, but it’s just a different beast than what I’m terming the true “cut fastball” that rides as well as it cuts. Corbin Burnes, now with the Orioles, developed his version with the Brewers, and they’ve worked with Brandon Woodruff on trying to throw it too. Neither has anywhere near the strange ride that Jansen produces. Former Giants closer and now Yankee, Camilo Doval, Carmen Mlodzinski, Graham Ashcraft, and Ryan Helsley are some other examples of hard cutters that are good pitches, but still don’t have that strange ride that Jansen, and formerly Rivera, had available.

The top spot on the Statcast leaderboard for vertical movement on a cutter goes to Jansen at 18.8 inches, Wander Suero of the Braves at 17.2 inches and averaging 92.1 mph and league average extension, is second and that’s really it. No one else has a cutter with more than 15.2 inches of induced vertical break. You just don’t see many outlier pitches like this in baseball.

If there was a candidate to try and develop this pitch on the Tigers, it probably would be Justin Verlander, or perhaps Troy Melton. They’re natural supinators with relatively high arm slots and high spin rate fourseamers with ride. But it just doesn’t seem teachable. They could throw a more straightforward cutter, and that could be useful instead. But trying to learn to throw one that rides would just screw up everything else they do. They have the velo, spin, and ride on their fourseam fastballs to get it done, but asking them to adjust finger pressure to push around the side of the ball a bit at release is too big and too subtle an ask at the same time. Learning to command it would take a long time if it even worked out, and in the meantime they’d potentially be a complete mess.

What the Tigers like about adding Jansen, on top of his experience and stellar track record of success, is just the fact that this is such a unique look. Like a lot of teams, the Tigers have been trying to diversify their bullpen with different arm angles and pitch types, so that opposing hitters in a series rarely see similar stuff from the pen, no matter who is on the mound. There aren’t many more unique pitchers than Kenley Jansen.

Jansen was good for the Angels last year other than a few rough outings early in the season, and with Will Vest and Kyle Finnegan in house, he doesn’t necessarily have to be the guy in the ninth inning. A.J. Hinch will probably use him to close most nights as long as it’s working. The trick is still playing matchups where applicable, and not riding Jansen too hard either. As long as his cut fastball remains intact, he should be fun to watch and a good addition to the Tigers pen.

Good morning, folks…

Joc Pederson is motivated after a career-worst 2025 season.

Kumar Rocker is fighting for the fifth starter spot after a rocky 2025.

Rule 5 pick Carter Baumler provides velocity for a bullpen that is lacking in that regard.

Jordan Montgomery is very happy to be back with the Texas Rangers.

David Laurila has his Sunday Notes column up at Fangraphs.

Here's what happened in Mets Land during spring training workouts on Saturday, in case you missed it...

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• Former MetEdwin Diaz responded to Steve Cohen's recent comments, saying the Dodgers did a great job of recruiting him
• Cohen spoke about the "roller coaster" offseason for the Mets, saying he expects this group to be a playoff team
• Left-handed reliever A.J. Minter won't be ready for Opening Day, but the team is encouraged by his bullpen sessions in Port St. Lucie
• As veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel fights for a roster spot, the Mets value the right-hander's experience on the mound
• Second baseman Marcus Semien is happy to rejoin Bo Bichette in what he called a "loaded" Mets lineup
• Right-hander Griffin Canning, who had a solid 2025 season with the Mets before suffering an Achilles injury, has signed with the Padres
• WATCH: Kodai Senga, Devin Williams, and Semien were part of Saturday's workout

The St. Louis Cardinals have arrived in Jupiter and the reports about players being in the best shapes of their lives has begun! The newly renovated and almost finished Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium is hosting the Cardinals and Miami Marlins for the next six weeks as most of us wait for the days to get longer and the last of the snow to finally disappear.

Over these six Sundays before Opening Day, I will look at each of the position groups for the Cardinals and look at their season projections and compare those expectations to the rest of the league. With the Cardinals either projected 66 wins via PECOTA or 77 wins via FanGraphs, that shows how much variance there could be surrounding the team in 2026. I expect the Cardinals to finish somewhere in the middle of those two numbers, where a 74.5 total line would give me the least confidence one way or another. As things stand, I am in on the Cardinals over 69.5 via FanDuel, but that could still be too optimistic with a lot of hope and expectations surrounding the team’s young players.

I am starting this series by looking at the starting pitching, the group that remained healthy all year, and in most organizations, that would usually mean a successful season. Unfortunately, that health meant Cardinals fans had to suffer through 51 starts by Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde before the team threw in the towel on the latter and allowed the former to finish out his tenure with the organization. By measure of fWAR, the 2025 staff finished 20th in baseball and 10th in the National League. The rotation is arguably the most revamped group on the roster as Chaim Bloom challenges the player development team to create high-level pitching talent that the St. Louis organization was always known for, although this version will feature more firepower than previous iterations of the pitching prospect group.

St. Louis Cardinals Rotation: Who’s in, who’s out?

Recently, I pointed out how RosterResource’s projected depth chart has the entire starting nine for the Cardinals as home grown talent. The same cannot be said for the rotation, and that might not be a bad thing at this point in the rebuild process. On this week’s Cardinals on My Time, I had Josh Jacobs from Dealin’ the Cards come on to look at the rotation competition, one that I view as the most wide open in camp. Rather than rehash that discussion here, I want to look at the guys we put into our rotation, compare that to projections, and then see how they stack up with the NL and the Central.

The Locks: Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy

Potential Opening Day starter and face of the pitching rebuild Matthew Liberatore is now at the front of the rotation. When he was acquired from Tampa Bay, there was intrigue about his potential to be an ace, and while Opening Day starter and ace mean two different things, he is looking to merge those two together in his second year as a full-time rotation piece. He will be supported by 28-year-old veteran Dustin May, who we all felt could be a perfect fit for the staff, as another guy looking to build off of another full workload season. Behind those three sits Michael McGreevy as a stabilizing, mid-rotation innings-eater who could still take a step forward to move past those projections. We were begging for him to make the bigs last. year, but we may have just been to caught up in wanting to see something different on the mound at Busch that we could have put unrealistic expectations on what he truly was at that point in his career.

Looking at those three, ZiPS DC projects that McGreevy will have the lowest ERA of the group at a 3.92. By measure of fWAR, McGreevy and Liberatore lead the group with a 1.8 and May comes in right behind with a 1.7 fWAR. The workload of these three especially will be interesting to follow as they all look to prove something from last year. Libby tailed off after the second half, May pitched his most innings in years, and McGreevy will be entering his first full season in the majors. They are all projected to fall between 141 and 159 innings, but if health allows, they should all surpass that total, which the Cardinals would like to see in a season full of questions.

In the National League, that fWAR would put McGreevy and Libby among the top 40 starters in the league, showing that they are more viewed as rotation depth pieces rather than staff leaders. The top 20 pitchers in the NL all have a projected fWAR of 2.5 or greater. In the NL Central, those numbers would put them as the 12th-best pitchers in the division, falling behind four of the five projected Reds’ starters, three of the Brewers’ pitchers even after trading away Freddy Peralta, three Pirates’ starters with Paul Skenes leading the charge, but those two only fall below one Cubs’ pitcher in Matthew Boyd.

As is true every season, injuries could play a defining role in the postseason picture. While the Reds have high-level talent, those pitchers are young or have a checkered injury history. The Pirates have done a good job adding pieces to their lineup, but the Brewers have traded away more than they have gotten back, and behind Boyd, the Cubs’ rotation does not strike me as intimidating. This is not to say the Cardinals can compete in the division, but goes to show that I believe the 66 win projection by PECOTA could be low due to the gray areas around the Central. If the Cardinals can repeat their health success from last year with this year’s group, that could be an exciting move towards the future for the organization. ZiPS DC projects all three starters to go a combined 29-30 this year.

The competition: Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy, Richard Fitts, Hunter Dobbins

I think there is going to be little argument for those first three spots, the order may be up for debate, but the names are likely there in most everyone’s depth charts. The fourth and fifth places, though, are pretty much wide open and with the major league-quality depth available, that got me thinking about the six-man rotation I wrote about earlier in the offseason, and that was before they acquired Dobbins. I would still be open to that idea, but the team has not said anything towards leaning that way, so I will look at the rotation as a traditional five-man setup.

Last season, we focused on how poorly Mikolas and Fedde pitched, but Pallante was not much better. He was able to eat 162.2 innings, but did so with a 5.31 ERA and went 1-10 with a 6.64 ERA in the second half of the year. Pallante was a nice stabilizer to the rotation in 2024, but regressed in his first season as a starter after bouncing between long relief, the minors, and starting until 2025. His offspeed stuff was not great last season, which caused his below-average fastball to be touched up at a higher rate, which then forced Pallante to try to nibble around the zone. That unfortunate mix of struggles put him into the competition, rather than a rotation lock for this season, but I think last season was just so bad in the second half, we are bound to see some improvements. Like Josh said on the podcast, a Pallante improvement may not be spectacular still, but he could become valuable to the organization in one way or another if he can become a reliable starting arm. I still have him as a favorite for a rotation spot coming out of Jupiter. ZiPS sees Pallante’s bounce back season ending in an 8-9 season and a 4.30 ERA.

For the last spot, again order irrelevant, I am again sticking with the one the organization is familiar with and seeing if they can make Kyle Leahy become the 2026 version of Matthew Liberatore last year. Leahy’s overall line last season was solid as he settled into that anytime role out of the bullpen, throwing in 62 games, covering 88 innings and putting up a 3.07 ERA and an improved strikeout rate.

I think we see him go from Kyle Everyday-hy to Kyle Every5thday-hy (rolls off the tongue) at least to start the year since Marmol and Bloom have kind of put those expectations on him since he started the last game of the regular season. Leahy has a solid pitch mix, featuring six different offerings, with his offspeed combination being his bread and butter to get a strikeout. Even with his heavy usage all season, Leahy did not experience the same regression that his counterparts did, actually bumping up his peripheral numbers after the break.

In a competitive team, a move to the rotation may not have made much sense because of his effectiveness out of the bullpen, but where the Cardinals are, he could create even more value as a starter if this transition works. Liberatore saw a similar bullpen role in 2024 before being moved to the rotation, and the Cardinals could copy/paste that plan for Leahy moving into the regular season. Interestingly, ZiPS has him penciled into the rotation on RosterResource, but the projection model only has him grabbing 18 starts out of 46 appearances. That would result in a 6-6 record over 135 innings and a 4.03 ERA with some regression in his strikeouts and walks. That regression would make sense as a starter, with less opportunity for digging deep for a big strikeout like he might have to in a jam coming out of the bullpen. That type of progression in 2026 though, could put Leahy in the conversation for a cheaper extension, although he will be turning 29 during this season and is controllable through the 2030 season. Part of the reason I would push for that rotation spot is because of that “advanced” age when compared to the rest of the rotation. If he can prove his value in the rotation, his future outlook could change for the better.

That leaves the major league trade acquisitions of Fitts and Dobbins on the outside looking in. Fitts is probably closer to competing for a 26-man slot than Dobbins, as the latter had ACL surgery last season but said he has progressed well and is throwing aggressively off the mound. Both pitchers are similar to each other when you look at the back of their baseball cards as they both have a traditional starter’s pitch mix, led by a mid-90s fastball, slider, and curveball. They are both a little more pitch-to-contact, with Fitts using a sinker to go off of his other pitches, while Dobbins features a splitter rather than a typical change up. They tend to be around the zone with their offerings and provide positive depth as projectable 26-year-old arms. If all goes to expectations, both could insert themselves into middle rotation arms for the future. ZiPS DC projects both to have similar seasons as well, with each tallying just under 100 innings with five wins and a mid-4 ERA.

It may not be sexy, but it could be an effective rotation, especially in this first year of the rebuild where the offense will have plenty of growing pains of their own. The ability for the starters to go 5-7 innings any given down could be a welcomed boost for the Cardinals as they sort through their arms and see who is the next “dude” or if they are full of “guys”.

What do you think? Who do you see cracking the Opening Day rotation? Is Libby the de facto #1? Is a six-man rotation a possibility? Let me know!

Guys or Dudes?@joshjaco98 joined the pod to talk about the rotation competition and discussed what this iteration of the #STLCards rotation means for the future

Josh looked at Matthew Liberatore and the rest of the staff on the full episode@redbirdrundown2@banter_baseballpic.twitter.com/LMoT2VC1Ru

— Scott Plaza (@MrPlaztastic17) February 13, 2026

SELF PROMO OF THE WEEK

• Random Cardinal of the Week takes a mini pause on the “random” aspect so we can pay respects to Black History Month. This week, Bill Greason was featured as Jim went into the history around the Cardinals and integration.
• Redbird Rundown discussed Spring Training and we put together packing lists for certain players. For example, I chose Thomas Saggese as one of my players and, in order to make an impression this year, he needs to bring TGRI Ooze and the Swiss Army Man movie to Jupiter. See who else we packed for on the full episode, premiering tonight at 6pm! Millennial references were running wild, so this was a fun one!
• Please like, comment, and subscribe/follow! Card/bobblehead/promo giveaways coming soon!

Thanks as always!

The Phillies have a ton of storylines this spring. With the players reporting in full tomorrow, we’re going to hear a lot about which players are ITBSOHL, which ones are working on something new, etc. The storylines are endless with so many new things happening around the team (THERE ARE NEW THINGS I PROMISE YOU).

However, some of these storylines will be aging poorly once the games actually start. They might be hot topics now, over these next few weeks, but afterwards we won’t find anything much interesting about them at all.

Which spring training storyline will age the worst? Is it going to be the one surrounding Zack Wheeler and his health? Will it be the effectiveness of the starting rotation? There are many to choose from, maybe even a few that haven’t been hashed out just either.

Well, at least you can file this one under “it shouldn’t theoretically affect the Braves in 2026, I guess,” if it makes you feel any better:

Jurickson Profar underwent sports hernia surgery in November. The procedure required six weeks of recovery. He doesn’t have any restrictions entering camp. He felt discomfort in September and again when he began his offseason workouts.

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) February 15, 2026

This does seem more like a holdover from 2025’s injury woes than a continuation into 2026, but it is what it is. The notable thing here is that once again, per Mark Bowman’s reporting, that another Braves player felt a twinge (or more) of something, but played through it — in a lost season, no less. Sure, you can say that Jurickson Profar was already out of action for the whole season and didn’t want to bail on his teammates further with the offseason coming up so soon, but a version of that logic is part of the problem when it comes to the Braves and injuries as it is.

Profar posted a .294 xwOBA in September after a .396 xwOBA in August. It’s tempting to say that at least part of his dropoff was something related to the aforementioned discomfort, but he also had a .291 xwOBA in July, so… who knows. I guess you could ascribe the July struggles to getting back up to speed after a suspension, and then September to the hey-I-have-a-hernia, but now you’ve got a whole assumption stew going and I mostly just want french fries and a candy bar.

Anyway, this shouldn’t affect Profar in 2026 (even though, if you’ve been following along, of course it will). He’s still penciled in to be a primary starter, though may DH a lot given the presence of Mike Yastrzemski and Profar’s ineptitude in the field. Maybe that makes the had-a-hernia-that-required-surgery situation a bit better.

Meet the Mets

Marcus Semien’s quiet leadership will be key in getting the Mets’ new infield to jell, writes Laura Albanese of Newsday. Semien is looking forward to a reunion with Bo Bichette and playing alongside Francisco Lindor, he said.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com provided his early spring training observations from Port St. Lucie.

Edwin Díaz responded to Steve Cohen’s quote that Díaz’s decision to join the Dodgers was “perplexing” by saying in part, “I think the Dodgers did a great job recruiting me.”

David Lennon of Newsday wrote about the Mets’ strategy for the debut of the automated ball-strike (ABS) challenge system that will debut in the big leagues this season.

This spring, Craig Kimbrel finds himself in unfamiliar territory: he is the most accomplished pitcher in camp with the Mets, but he is not guaranteed a spot on the team.

To help strengthen his resume, MJ Melendez played some innings at center field in winter ball and is hopeful this added versatility will help secure him a spot on the Mets’ Opening Day roster.

Around the National League East

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said the Braves are still looking to add an arm to the top of their rotation.

Battery Power projected what the Braves’ Opening Day roster will look like.

The Miami Marlins won their arbitration hearing against righty Calvin Faucher, who will make the $1.8 million offered by the Marlins rather than the $2.05 million figure he filed at. This was the final salary arbitration case of the year; players won eight cases and clubs won four cases.

The Nationals signed left-hander Cionel Pérez to a minor league deal.

Around Major League Baseball

The Padres went on a spree yesterday, adding Nick Castellanos—recently released by the Phillies—former Met Griffin Canning, and lefty Germán Márquez.

The Diamondbacks signed veteran righty Joe Ross to a minor league deal.

Cal Raleigh provided his reflections on coming in second in a hotly contested AL MVP race last year and how he’s looking to build on that in 2026.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Chris McShane previewed what 2026 may hold for Dylan Ross, who will try to compete for a spot in the Mets’ bullpen.

This Date in Mets History

The Mets reunited with Jason Isringhausen on this date in 2011. The deal actually turned out okay from a baseball perspective and Izzy earned his 300th career save with the Mets in August, but unfortunately he faded in the second half overall after a solid first half.

The Orioles made a significant effort over the offseason to shore up multiple positions. The team boosted its starting pitching depth by adding Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin. Baltimore added Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge to help in the late innings. The O’s added plenty of power with Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, and the addition of Blaze Alexander should help the team survive an injury to Jackson Holliday.

All of that being said, there’s always a reason to worry in Birdland. The bullpen is particularly thin on established big leaguers after Helsley and Kittredge. The rotation, while improved, is still banking on Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish to stay healthy at the top.

The Orioles have three power hitters that play the same position in Alonso, Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo. Both catchers will need at bats as the DH, and Mayo could find his way to other positions (yikes). Recently announced injuries to Holliday and Jordan Westburg put a dent in Baltimore’s best unit, while Leody Taveras remains the only back up to Colton Cowser in center field.

Hope springs eternal in spring training, and there’s plenty of reason for optimism right now. That being said, what position makes you the most nervous in the middle of February?

If you’re a Guardians fan, you have probably collected some Cleveland baseball memorabilia.

Whether it’s baseball cards, baseballs, bats, gloves, hats, shirts, jerseys or something completely different… we want to hear about it!

Personally, I rank my autographed José Ramírez bat first in my collection. Then, I have an autographed photo of Mike Hargrove from the day he told me I should propose to my girlfriend (now-wife). And an autographed picture of my dog by Bob Wickman whom I named her after. Finally, I pulled an autographed photo of Corey Kluber from a random drawing.

How about you? What is your favorite item?

It’s here! It’s finally here! The Dodgers will be playing baseball in less than a week’s time.

As the team begins to regroup at Camelback Ranch, old faces and new alike make their way into the clubhouse, and among the new faces to the Dodgers is Edwin Díaz.

Díaz was the first major signing this offseason for the Dodgers, as he inked a three-year, $69 million deal to become the new closer during the winter meetings. The Dodgers still have relievers who at one point in their careers have done well closing games, such as Evan Phillips, Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen, but Díaz will now be the guy called upon with a close lead in the ninth inning.

While Dodgers fans anticipate the blaring of trumpets with his first entrance, fans of the New York Mets are left with the memories of Díaz’s tenure, illustrated by both frustration and triumph. With Mets fans wondering why Díaz chose greener pastures in Los Angeles, the right-hander explained his decision to join the Dodgers, noting that their recruitment process played a huge role in him abandoning New York, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

“I was a free agent, so I got the chance to talk with everyone,” Díaz said Saturday from Dodgers camp in Glendale, Ariz. “And I think the Dodgers did a great job recruiting me. At the end of the day, I chose to be here. I have a lot of respect for the Mets organization, players, staff, ownership. They treated me really good. I don’t have anything bad to say about them. But at the end of the day, I’m here. This is a new journey for me and I’m happy to be with the Dodgers, so let’s see how it goes.”

Links

Brusdar Graterol has not thrown off of a big league mound since the 2024 World Series against the New York Yankees. After undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum, Graterol, just like many young Dodgers arms, had his 2025 season dashed before it could begin.

Although Graterol has had a full offseason to recover and ramp up, his velocity is not up to par with where the Dodgers want it to be, and that might delay Graterol’s return until after opening day, per Sonja Chen of MLB.com.

“It’s still kind of the velocity’s not near where it’s going to be,” Roberts said. “So I think that it’s a slow progression. I just don’t know where that puts us. But it’s a slow process for Brusdar.”

Last season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto showed baseball fans why he received a 12-year, $325 million deal from the Dodgers without ever throwing a major league pitch, finishing third in NL Cy Young voting and being named the World Series MVP.

Yamamoto’s trophy mantle already boasts some serious hardware from his time in both the NPB and MLB, but his sights are set on a new challenge this upcoming season; winning the Cy Young award, notes Chen.

“He’s just such a good competitor. He takes care of himself, but he wants to be great,” manager Dave Roberts said. “He wants to win a Cy Young. He hasn’t done that yet, so that’s a carrot. But I think he prides himself on being consistent and being really good.”

Team Japan will only get one half of the Shohei Ohtani experience during the 2026 World Baseball Classic, but Dodgers fans will finally get the full experience in his third year with the team. While a Cy Young award is something that Ohtani does dream of receiving, the goal for two-way superstar this season is simply to stay healthy on the mound, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register.

“Getting a Cy Young means being able to throw more innings and being able to pitch throughout the whole season, so if that’s the end result, that’s a good sign for me. What I’m more focused on is just being healthy the whole year.”