LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 08: Chris Sale #51 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Friday, May 8, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Tom Wilson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
When the Braves took a series against the Dodgers in May by winning consecutive 7-2 contests after dropping the first game, it was an unexpected but welcome surprise amid an incredible two-month run of performance for the squad. With the Braves winning the first two games of this series against the Dodgers amid something resembling a groggy slide, they’ve pulled off the unexpected and might be righting their careening ship a bit. Among the particularly gladdening things in last night’s game was that the team busted out of a long offensive funk — it had played seven straight games with a teamwide xwOBA below league average (and most of those games were well, well below league average), but then busted out with a .472 mark in yesterday’s win. That .472 was the team’s third-highest of the season, and its highest since April 10.
Possible signs of resurgence aside, this game offers quite a lot of intrigue in its own right. For one, the Braves haven’t swept the Dodgers since May of 2013. For another, it’s a second consecutive “Chris Sale pitches against another ace” matchup. Last week, it was Sale versus pitching fWAR leader Jacob Misiorowski. This time, he’ll square off against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is currently 11th in MLB in pitching fWAR (Sale is sixth).
Now in his third season stateside, Yamamoto’s stats are a bit off his stellar 2025 campaign (60/70/74 ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-), but still very good: 63/76/80. He’s been durable and consistent. Impressively, Yamamoto hasn’t had back-to-back starts with an FIP- above 100 this year, and it’s only happened in terms of xFIP- once. Generally dominant, he hasn’t really been blown up this year — sometimes there are not-so-great peripherals starts, but he makes do. So, this will be a tough nut to crack for the Braves.
But, Chris Sale is also a tough nut to crack. He enters tonight’s start with basically video game numbers for a starter: 53/54/65, and 4.9 fWAR in “just” 135 innings. It’s been pretty much a repeat of his 2024 Cy Young-winning campaign so far, with only the context that Misiorowski and Cristopher Sanchez are destroying hitters even more lingering out in the atmosphere.
The Braves have squared off against Yamamoto twice. They faced him back in 2024 in a 9-0 shellacking where Yamamoto departed after four innings with just a 1-0 lead and a 3/2 K/BB ratio. Then, he carved up the ineffectual 2025 version of the club in a close, 2-1 game in which the Dodgers prevailed. On the flip side, the Dodgers have seen Sale a fair bit over the last three years. They won the game he started against them in Los Angeles earlier this year, despite Sale pitching really well. They also knocked him around in 2025 as part of that season-opening disastrous road trip. Sale also beat them in September 2024 with a good start.
So, expect to see good pitching… and probably something crazy (which may be the absence of good pitching) given the way the first two games of this series have gone.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Thursday, August 27, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV/Streaming: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Cubs fans and fans across the country.
Earlier this week I asked you which of the Wild Card contenders you’d rather see the Cubs face in that round, presuming the Cubs are in it (and hopefully the top Wild Card and host a series).
Here’s how you responded:
The choice here was overwhelmingly for the Diamondbacks — who just took two of three from the Cubs in Phoenix. Of course, one of those wins was due to a Cubs bullpen meltdown and the other could have been affected by the non-balk call in the sixth inning of the third game.
At this writing the Diamondbacks are out of the Wild Card picture, one game behind the Padres, who inhabit the third wild-card spot. The Phillies are second, two games behind the Cubs, and so if these positions held the rest of the year, the Cubs would host the Phillies for a best-of-three at Wrigley Field.
Of course, it’s still possible — though more of a long shot now — that the Cubs could overtake the Brewers for the NL Central title. It’s also possible that the Phillies, who trail the Braves by 4.5 games in the NL East, could win that division, pushing Atlanta into a wild-card spot. Since Phillies manager Rob Thomson was fired after a 9-19 start, interim manager Don Mattingly has managed them to a 65-41 record. That’s second in MLB over that span, behind only the Brewers.
Oddly, Thomson did almost exactly that in 2022, taking over a 22-29 team from Joe Girardi and managing them to a 65-46 finish, a Wild Card, and a World Series berth against the Astros.
The 2026 regular season ends four weeks from Sunday. Should be an interesting ride.
Here are the results from the two national questions asked in the SB Nation Reacts survey this week.
I’m surprised this number is that low. The Wild Card races and Wild Card series have definitely been good for the game, in my opinion. And I will guarantee you this: When MLB expands to 32 teams — and it likely will, sometime early in the next decade — that’ll mean 16 teams in the postseason. You might think that’s too many, but it is going to happen.
This does seem likely, with the Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Marlins out. The Padres were in first place in the NL West after defeating the Dodgers May 18, with a 29-18 record. From then through July 23 they went 21-35 and fell to 15 games out of first place. But since then they are 22-9, the best record in MLB over that span. As noted above, they’re currently in that third Wild Card spot, though only a game ahead of Arizona. Those two clubs meet once more, the final three games of the regular season in San Diego. The teams have split 10 games thus far in 2026. Could be a… wild (card)… finish!
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - AUGUST 8: Jordan Walker #18 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Colorado Rockies at Busch Stadium on August 8, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Cardinals will try to salvage their series against the Orioles in a Thursday afternoon contest at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has not formally announced their starter as of this moment, but Oli Marmol has indicated it will likely be a bullpen game for the Cardinals starting with Gordon Graceffo. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15pm central time and the game broadcast will be available via Cardinals.tv.
A few weeks ago, I decided that there had to be a better way to figure out which baseball players were making meaningful changes to their approach. I used tools like Process+ and the Statcast rolling leaderboards, but I wanted to try to spot trends or changes before they led to clear performance boosts, and everybody in my leagues was adding the player I was researching. So I built a database.
I'm not a coder by nature, so I will admit to using AI for help with the coding, but the design was something I had been thinking about for a while. I took some of my preferred indicators that could be used to spot shifts in performance and added them to a database. That included results-stats like exit velocity and barrel rate, or velocity increases and usage changes for pitchers. It also included process-based stats like swing rate, chase rate, pull air rate, two-strike usage for pitchers, etc., and it also included biomechanical indicators like arm angle for pitchers or batting stance changes for hitters. I then had the database set up to flag any meaningful changes across segments of 50 plate appearances (or about three starts for a starting pitcher).
What that led to was me having an evolving database of hitters and pitchers who were doing new things that deserved my attention.
Now, some of it was not as useful. You can have pitchers who stop using a pitch for two starts because of hitter handedness, or you can have a hitter who has a surge in barrel rate without anything else changing in their process or swing mechanics. However, by having something flag these names for me, I'm able to dig into each name and see if there is something tangible happening under the hood.
As a result, I can now share some of those changes with you. Hopefully these types of articles are interesting to you, and I can continue to do them for pitchers and hitters through this season and into next season. Today we're just going to look at hitters who stood out to me.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Performance Changes
Alex Bregman - 3B, CHC (New Swing Plane, Approach Change)
Back on August 13th, I recorded a video on Bregman’s three-home-run game and mentioned that Bregman had started to make some clear approach changes starting around July 11th. Since then, Bregman is hitting .291/.365/.582 in 39 games with 12 home runs, 34 RBI, a 15.7% strikeout rate, 7% barrel rate, and 49% pull rate. That has come with a 13-degree attack angle that's down from 15 degrees prior to July 11th, which means the sweet spot of his bat is coming through the zone a little flatter since he made a conscious swing change. There's a good video on Instagram from Flips Baseball, but Bregman also mentioned that his hips and shoulders were not in sync. According to Stacast's new Swing Timing leaderboard, 71% of Bregman's swings since July 11th have been on time. That's 45th in all of baseball. He was at 67% before the mechanical adjustment. It doesn't seem like a major thing, but when a veteran hitter tells you they're working to adjust their mechanics and then you see minor changes and major results shift, you have to pay attention.
Wilyer Abreu - OF, BOS (Increasing His Pull Air Rate, and Swinging Less)
At the beginning of July, Wilyer Abreu was hitting .268 with 10 home runs and just a 19.5% strikeout rate in 82 games. Even though the overall production was solid, his power production was not what we’ve come to expect. He had just an 8.5% HR/FB rate at that point in the season after posting a 15.2% mark in 2025. Well, from the start of July on, Abreu has seen his hard-hit rate skyrocket (see graph) and his HR/FB rate has exploded to 18.2%. A big reason for that is that Abreu has raised his pull air rate from 17.2% heading into July to 22% from July 1st on. He’s also swinging less overall, lowering his overall swing rate from 49.7% heading into July to 45.7% from July 1st on. His batting average may be just .236 since July 1st, but he’s hitting for far more power and has the second-best wRC+ on the Red Sox since then.
Fernando Tatis - OF, SD (Changed His Batting Stance, Bat Speed up, Pull Air% Up)
Remember back when we were talking about how Fernando Tatis Jr. couldn't hit home runs? Yeah, me neither. The outfielder has been on fire lately, and some of that boost in production could be tied to a stance change. As you can see from the graphic below, Tatis drastically opened his stance in June, opening up his feet 21 degrees and then opening his stance even more in August.
Statcast
The reason we should care about this is that the stance change occurred at the same time that Tatis Jr. started to pull the ball more, pull the ball in the air more, and swing the bat faster. All of that tells me that opening up his stance allows him to clear his hips more quickly and turn on the ball more efficiently. At the end of May, Tatis had a 31.3% pull rate, a 25.5% fly ball rate, a 53.3% ground ball rate, a 7.8% Pull Air%, and a 9.6% barrel rate, with an attack direction three degrees to the opposite side. From June 1st on, Tatis has a 44.2% pull rate, a 36% fly ball rate, a 46.6% groundball rate, a 14.5% Pull Air%, and a 14.5% barrel rate with an attack direction that's just one degree to the oppo side. He's also continuing to make these changes since both July and August have actually seen his attack direction shift to one degree to the pull side, and Tatis Jr. has a 23.4% Pull Air% in August.
All of which is to say, Tatis Jr. opened up his stance, started turning on the ball more and hitting it harder, and the results have followed.
Luke Keaschall - 2B/OF, MIN (Change in Groundball Rate)
From July 1st on, Luke Keaschall is hitting .315/.414/.497 with six home runs, 20 runs scored, and 16 RBI in 44 games. That's come with just a 31.7% hard-hit rate and 4.8% barrel rate, but Keaschall had just a 3% barrel rate and 31% hard-hit rate through the end of June, when he hit .245/.328/.317 in 81 games. One of the bigger changes has been that Keaschall's groundball rate was 37% and his pull rate was 38% through the end of June. Through the end of May, the groundball rate was 43%, and the pull rate was 35%. From July 1st on, he has a 32.5% groundball rate and 46% pull rate, so he has continuously been getting the ball off the ground and getting it to the pull side more often. That's likely why his ISO rose from .072 at the end of June to .181 from July 1st on.
Luis Robert Jr. - OF, NYM (Zone Swing Rate, Pull-Side Contact)
In August, Robert Jr. is hitting .302/.352/.603 with six home runs, 11 RBI, and an 18.8% barrel rate. Injuries had obviously impacted his season before then, but in 134 plate appearances before August, he was hitting .195/.291/.322 with four home runs. Over this stretch in August, Robert's bat speed is up one mph, but it was already 76.7 mph prior to August. He is intercepting the ball six degrees to the pull side, which is up two degrees, but he has also gotten more aggressive in the zone. Robert Jr. has increased his overall swing rate by 1.8% in August, but his chase rate has fallen from 35.1% to 31.9%. That means his zone swing rate is up from 65.5% to 74.4%. That's a pretty major increase. By being more aggressive in the zone and getting the ball out in front a little more, Robert Jr. is having easily the best month of his season.
Matt McLain - 2B, CIN (Moving Deeper in the Box, Opening Stance)
Matt McLain has been subtly moving deeper in the box and opening his stance as the season has gone on. I'm not sure that's the right course of action, and not just because the results haven't gotten any better. McLain has really struggled with pitches on the outside this season. On pitches away, McLain hits .139 with an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a 34.1% hard-hit rate. On pitches everywhere else, McLain hits .228 with an 86.6 mph average exit velocity and a 41.6% hard-hit rate. What’s more glaring is that his contact rate on pitches away is 65.8%, but it’s 81.2% on pitches anywhere else in the zone. His whiff rate also rises from 18.8% to 34.2%. I'm not sure that opening up his stance more is going to help him do more damage on pitches on the outside part of the plate.
Statcast
Garrett Mitchell - OF, MIL (Batting Stance Change, Zone Contact Increase)
In truth, Garrett Mitchell has been making these changes for much of the season. His batting stance stayed stable through May, with roughly a 14-degree open stance and 32 inches between his feet. That shifted sharply in June and has continued to change. In August, he has a batting stance is that is 40 degrees open with just 23 inches of separation between his feet, meaning that his stance is more open and narrower. We have seen the Brewers do this before with Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz. This type of tweak is often connected to a desire to have a cleaner, more direct path to the ball or quicker rotation of the hips, as we discussed with Tatis. For Mitchell, it may have also been connected to seeing the ball better and making more contact. Before changing his batting stance, Mitchell had a 77.1% zone contact rate, but that has jumped up to 83.1% since then. It was 87.1% in July and has since trended down a bit in August, but both months have been well ahead of what we saw in the past.
Mitchell saw a spike in chase rate in June, right after making the stance change, but he has since seen both his swing rate and chase rate decline, which is in keeping with the ideal that the stance change has helped his swing decisions and contact ability. Since changing his stance, his strikeout rate has fallen from 34.2% to 28.2%, his batting average has gone from .251 to .282, and his OPS has increased from .761 to .804. Those are noteworthy and intriguing changes.
Tommy White - INF, ATH (Swing Tilt Change, Barrel Rate)
In 54 plate appearances in July, Tommy White had a 4.5% barrel rate, .604 OPS, and .038 ISO. He had hit no home runs and was batting .269. In 85 plate appearances in August, he has an 11.6% barrel rate, .648 OPS, and a .098 ISO with two home runs and a .268 average. The barrel rate jump is massive, and the ISO jump is also pretty large, even though it doesn't take him into a territory we really like for fantasy. Under the surface, there's also not a huge amount of change that has led to the jump in barrel rate. He's been a bit more aggressive in the zone with a 7.1% increase in zone swing rate, and his swing is about 1.5 degrees flatter. That could contribute to the fact that his Ideal Attack Angle rate has improved from 48% to 65.3%. So, at the end of the day, Tommy White is being more aggressive in the zone and is attacking the ball from a better plane. That has led to a huge increase in barrel rate but no other major improvements yet.
Connor Norby - 2B/3B, COL (Narrower and More Open Stance)
Since coming to the Rockies, Norby's stance has changed drastically. The 26-year-old had nearly 200 plate appearances with the Marlins in the first two months of the season. During that time, he had about 33 inches of separation between his feet and his stance was just 10 degrees open. In August with the Rockies, he has just 23 inches of separation between his feet and his stance is 31 degrees open. That's a significantly narrower and more open stance, and he's also standing about two inches deeper in the box.
Statcast
As I mentioned above, we saw the Brewers make a similar stance change with Mitchell, Turang, and Ortiz. The general idea is that a narrower stance like that can help make it easier to keep weight on the back foot to create more power. The more open stance not only makes it easier to keep balance in the loading process, but can also make it easier to clear the hips and turn on inside pitches. That's working for Norby, whose swing produces line drives to the gaps but a lot of hard contact the other way, which will work in Coors Field.
Since coming to the Rockies, Norby is hitting .310/.408/.571 with a 43% hard-hit rate and a two-degree attack angle towards the opposite field side. In his early-season at-bats with the Marlins, he hit .205/.313/.325 with a 36.6% hard-hit rate and a four-degree attack angle towards the opposite field. He also had a 40-degree swing tilt and a 18-degree attack angle with the sweet spot of his bat when it traveled through the contact point. Those are down to a 38-degree swing tilt and a 16-degree attack angle with the Rockies. All of which is to say that the new stance MAY have helped Norby to hit the ball harder, use the middle of the field slightly more, and also come through the zone with a bit of a flatter bat path. Or, he's doing all of that independent of one another, which is also pretty nice to see.
Norby also did an interview with a Rockies blog where he said, “There were a lot of things I was doing in Miami that just felt like weren’t me necessarily. There were some things I was doing a lot better, and I’m carrying over. But other than that, I just needed to be me.” Maybe being him will help these results carry over.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - AUGUST 10: Trevor Rogers #28 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches during the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Minnesota Twins at Target Field on Monday, August 10, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Andrew Ritter/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The last time the Orioles visited St. Louis, in May 0f 2024, the Cardinals won all three games to end the Birds’ 106-series regular season sweepless streak. So I’d say the Orioles owe the Cards a sweep of their own.
After a blowout win in the opener and a blowout-turned-nailbiter victory in game two, the Orioles will look to break out the brooms in today’s finale. They’ve got the right guy on the mound to do it. Trevor Rogers has been dealing since the start of June, going 7-2 with a 2.57 ERA in his 14 starts in that span. He’s delivered nine quality starts over that stretch, and only once has he allowed more than three earned runs. In all likelihood he’ll give the O’s a good chance to win today as along as they can bring the offense, which they’ve certainly done by scoring 21 runs in the first two games of the series.
The Cardinals are going with a bullpen game this afternoon. Right-hander Gordon Graceffo will make his first start of the season and just the second of his career, but he’ll surely be just a one- or two-inning opener. We could see a bulk relief appearance from rookie lefty Quinn Mathews, who was torched for seven runs in his most recent start on Aug. 22, or righty Cade Winquest, who got his first call-up to the majors earlier today. None of these are pitchers who should strike fear into the heart of Orioles hitters, which of course means they’ll combine for a three-hit shutout.
The third wild card-leading Guardians are off today, so an Orioles win would inch them two games back of Cleveland. The O’s haven’t pulled off a sweep since July 17-19 in Houston, the first series after the All-Star break. On three separate occasions since then, they’ve entered the series finale with a chance for a sweep — once against the Angels and twice against the Rays — but they’ve fumbled at the goal line in each instance. Can they actually pull it off this time?
Orioles lineup:
2B Jackson Holliday DH Pete Alonso SS Gunnar Henderson C Samuel Basallo 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand LF Dylan Beavers 1B Coby Mayo CF Colton Cowser RF Leody Taveras
LHP Trevor Rogers
Cardinals lineup:
SS José Fermín DH Iván Herrera RF Jordan Walker 1B Alec Burleson LF Joshua Báez 3B Blaze Jordan 2B Ramón Urías CF Nathan Church C Pedro Pagés
PORTLAND, ME - JULY 19: Roman Anthony, one of three Sea Dog players who recently competed in the MLB Futures all-star game, takes batting practice on Friday. (Staff photo by Derek Davis/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
Suffice it to say it’s been an up-and-down start to Adley Rutschman’s Red Sox career, which began when he was still recovering from an injury. Now, after starting to find himself at the plate with his new team, he’s found himself on the shelf again, missing the past two games with an elbow injury he suffered on a swing. Luckily, the team doesn’t sound too concerned about it at this point (I know, I know…) “He took a really aggressive swing,” Chad Tracy said. “He kind of hyperextended his elbow. Nothing to be alarmed about. Just felt like I don’t want to make that worse.” Rutschman expects to be back in the lineup this weekend against the Yankees. (Perla Paredes, MLB.com)
Rutschman isn’t the only Sox player who expects to be playing against the Yankees. Both Roman Anthony and Trevor Story are being vocal about getting back into the lineup during the upcoming series. “Overall, feeling really good,” said Story. “I’m on [time with] the barrel, just a touch off [on squaring pitches]. [It’s] to be expected. I think more than the results, it’s more about how I’m feeling and kind of dictating the at-bat. And I’m in a good spot there. So, next day or two, hit some barrels and feel good about [returning].” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)
Anthony will be particularly happy to be back on the field given all the noise that’s surrounded his rehab, noise which has included whispers about both his social life and his commitment to get back on the field. Anthony is strongly pushing back against all of it and, reading between the lines, he seems a little annoyed with the Red Sox medical staff. “I did everything I could,” he said. “I thought I made that clear. I took all the (injections) I could, as soon as I could. I tried to do everything to get back on the field. Unfortunately, maybe we pushed too hard. Every time I tried to do that, it may have set me back a little bit. But at the same time, I saw three outside doctors that told me this was a three-month injury. After it all, it took right about that much.”
As for his social life, he views it as a non-issue: “I won’t really talk on that because it’s not even something that’s relevant and it hasn’t been relevant in our clubhouse. It’s never been a problem and it’s never really even been a thing. I prioritize getting to bed and doing everything I can to show up and give it all to my teammates and to the fans. I think when things aren’t going your way and you’re a 22-year-old kid that does anything other than just goes home and goes straight to bed, people have something to say.” (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)
There’s been a lot of talk about what roster dominoes will fall when Story, Anthony, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa do conclude their rehabs. But as of now, Tracy isn’t guaranteeing playing time to anyone. “I don’t foresee a scenario where we get new players here, and I’m just going to not play the guys [who have been playing],” Tracy said “We’re getting to the point of the season where we have a month left. It’s about trying to win every single game. What gives us the best chance that night’s game to do that? This is not necessarily the point of the season where it’s like we’re going to work through it. We’ve got to go out there and try to win the game — and that’s with whoever’s available that night to start.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)
And things could get even more complicated if Curtis Mead returns, which is apparently possible, as his hard cast was removed this week. “I know that’s just step one and there’s still a good bit of time here after this comes off and what he’s got to do just to get it strong enough to even begin baseball activities,” Tracy said. “So [there’s] hope, but we’ve still got to temper that hope and just see if everything goes well with the next steps.” (Conor Ryan, Boston.com)
Tracy won’t have any room fitting Garrett Whitlock back into the bullpen, though. Whitlock struck out Caleb Durbin and Eli White before yesterday’s game and is on track to return imminently. “Body felt good, arm felt good. So everything you want,” he said. (Chrisopher Smith, MassLive)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 12: Ralphy Velazquez #22 of the Cleveland Guardians bats in the MLB All-Star Futures Game at Citizens Bank Park on July 12, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images) | Getty Images
To sleep, aye, perchance to dream of a World Series title, there’s the rub.
Since the August 3rd trade deadline, Cleveland has made a solid progression as an offense. They went from the 27th-ranked offense in MLB with a 92 wRC+ and a slashline of .231/.310/.370 to the tenth-ranked offense in MLB at 103 wRC+ with a slashline of .263/.340/.374. You can see, of course, the issue with the growth; the Guardians’ slugging percentage has barely moved as they remain one of the worst teams in MLB at hitting home runs (29th-ranked in homers for the season and for the month of August so far).
Far be it from me to look a gift horse in the mouth: I am very happy with the advancements the team made at the deadline acquiring Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell, as well as promoting Angel Genao. I am thrilled that Steven Kwan has become the third best hitter in baseball over the past two months and optimistic about Jose Ramirez’s chances of regaining consistent doubles power (at least) as his surgically-repaired hand continues to gain strength. Also, Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana SHOULD find their way to a few more homers as they continue to adjust to the league in their rookie seasons (provided DeLauter can remain healthy).
But, there’s little doubt the Guardians could use some more pop in their lineup if they really want to make a run to end the season and, then, to aim for a pennant. Good news – the Columbus Clippers lead all of minor league baseball in home runs. Yes, Columbus plays in a bandbox. Yes, Triple-A pitching is horrible. But, there are some legitimate power threats on the Guardians’ Triple-A team. Should one or more of these sluggers be added to the major league team – perhaps in time for tomorrow’s homestand against the Royals?
The most attractive candidates are:
Ralphy Velazquez, 21 years old, LHH, 1B/LF – 133 wRC+, .275 ISO, .970 OPS vs. RHP/.840 OPS vs. LHP, .1.061 OPS at Columbus, .800 OPS away.
Cooper Ingle, 24 years old, LHH, C/LF/DH – 154 wRC+, .244 ISO, 1.021 vs. RHP/.534 OPS vs. LHP, 1.009 OPS at Columbus/.854 OPS away
Kody Huff, 25 years old, RHH, C/1B – 130 wRC+, .247 ISO, .893 OPS vs. RHP/.842 vs. LHP, .896 at Columbus/868 away.
Milan Tolentino, 24 years old, LHH, UIF – 108 wRC+, .231 ISO, .811 OPS vs. RHP/.776 vs. LHP, .780 at Columbus/.826 OPS away
I think it’s probably helpful to look at how these players have been handling specific pitches over the past two months as they’ve been developing. So, here’s their wOBA/xwOBA vs. all fastballs since 7/1:
We have discussed the dilemma for the Guardians regarding Ralphy. If they call him up, they will miss out on his continued development in 2027 if there is a lockout that costs them major league games. Certainly, Chris Antonetti is far more qualified than I am to judge on how likely that outcome should be considered. I do not believe, in any case, it is a compelling argument against calling Velazquez up IF he can help the team. And, I think, looking at the numbers above, there is a decent chance Ralphy could help the team… BUT he will need consistent, almost daily, at-bats and they should be prepared for the usual adjustment period. Given DeLauter’s hamstring troubles, one would have to assume Chase will mostly be limited to the DH role, meaning Ralphy will have to be comfortable playing left field with Kwan in center and Adell in right field. Ralphy would then replace either Angel Martinez or Petey Halpin, depending on team’s comfort level with Martinez in centerfield.
Is Velazquez ready for full-time left field reps? Only the team can hazard a guess on this. We know Cooper Ingle wasn’t ready on his call-up. Is the team capable of enduring what will likely be a 3-weekish adjustment period for Velazquez to acclimate himself to big league pitching in hopes he will be ready to crush pitches in time for the end of the season/playoffs? We should be very excited about Ralphy’s numbers given his age at Triple-A. This is very likely to be a middle-of-the-order hitter when he is big league ready… but the chances are fairly slim that he is currently ready given his age. Now, there is a chance he is making the adjustments currently to demonstrate that he IS ready for the challenge, seeing breaking balls and offspeed well-enough to get challenge by the best versions of those pitches. But, this is no sure thing. Do you take the risk he may help now… or carefully do whatever you can to give him the best shot at being ready to help in 2027? That’s the quandry before the Guardians’ front office right now and I cannot say that I know the solution with any certainty.
As for the other options, Tolentino is a great depth option to have. Should (God-forbid) Brayan Rocchio, Bazzana or Genao get hurt, I think Tolentino should be the next player called up. He has potential to provide some pop (and a lot of strikeouts) while playing great defense. But, he is a utility player at best. Personally, I would like to see Kody Huff replace David Fry on the roster, but I can understand why the team continues to believe Fry has a better chance of providing something in that bench role. Huff’s struggles against fastballs are likely a fatal flaw if he doesn’t figure something out there, even though a role as a backup catcher role would still be within reach.
Finally, Ingle still shows the signs of being a hitter who needs the challenge of big league opportunities. The problems with him revolve around positional fit and platoon issues. The team clearly doesn’t trust that he’s a big league-quality catcher (and the position is ably manned by Patrick Bailey and Austin Hedges, currently) and we saw his defense in left-field earlier – alarming and undesirable! Has he improved enough in left field to earn another look? I cannot claim to know the answer, but I would guess it is probably “no.” I think Ingle might be a guy to get DH/LF/3rd Catcher reps during September call-ups, if anything, but I’m beginning to wonder if he ends up being a trade chip in the offseason.
The Guardians could look at acquiring Eugenio Suarez, recently put on waivers by the Reds. Suarez has a .248 ISO since July 1st with 11 homers. As a right-handed slugger, Suarez could probably play the Fry/Hoskins role (without being able to play outfield as Fry can) better than what we could hope Huff could play that role (again, without outfield abilities). I certainly would not oppose that move, but I’m also not desperate for the team to make it given the volatility of Suarez’s value due to his age and positional limitations.
It will be interesting to see what the Guardians do – or DON’T do – over the next few weeks to try to find some more slugging for their improved lineup. Is it hoping for natural development/positive regression? Is it a September call-up of a guy like Cooper Ingle? Is it finding a cast-off vet like Suarez, capable of providing a little punch? Or, is it something a little more daring in the much anticitpated call-up of Ralphy Velazquez? Stay tuned to find out.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - SEPTEMBER 14: Chris Sale #51 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Truist Park on September 14, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
One is the number. What number, you may ask? One win that the Dodgers look for before leaving Atlanta? One-run losses as the theme of this series against the Braves? One unequivocally poor performance in a season’s worth of games for Chris Sale, who in all but one of his 23 starts this season has allowed no more than three earned runs? There are ones all over the place.
For as dominant as Sale has been in 2026, the veteran southpaw has also gone through an issue in that the Braves’ record in his starts doesn’t accurately reflect his level of dominance. It’s not even entirely a run support issue given that Atlanta averages a little over 5 runs per game in his starts but more of a distribution problem. Despite the Braves’ outstanding campaign, they’ve too often failed to capitalize on dominant starts by their ace, possessing only a 13-10 record when Sale takes the mound. One of those losses came against the Dodgers when these two clubs last met in early May. The former Cy Young winner did his usual thing with seven quality innings, but the Braves offense had no answers to Emmet Sheehan and the Dodgers’ bullpen in a 3-1 loss.
In fact, Sale comes into this game having pitched three straight quality starts in August only to lose each one of them as the Braves offense has let him down with just five runs across three games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, relishes the challenge of pitching on the road against a Braves offense with far superior numbers at home (.760 OPS at home and .690 away). Yamamoto comes into this game having helped the Dodgers to a win in each of his last six starts away from home.
Baseball: 1991 NLCS Playoffs: Atlanta Braves pitcher Steve Avery (33) in action, pitching vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Game 2. Pittsburgh, PA 10/10/1991 CREDIT: John Iacono (Photo by John Iacono /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X42012 )
It’s been 35 years since the 1991 Atlanta Braves changed the trajectory of the franchise with an improbable run to the World Series and a classic encounter with the Minnesota Twins.
Though Atlanta came up short in that seven-game showdown, that season launched a sustained run of success for the team and introduced a new generation of Braves that would star throughout the decade.
Steve Avery was anything but a household name when he entered the 1991 season but found himself throwing some of the most important games in franchise history by year’s end.
The third overall selection in the 1988 draft out of Taylor, Michigan, Avery made it to the big leagues in roughly two years. He took his lumps as a 20-year-old rookie in 1990, finishing 3-11 with a 5.64 ERA in 20 starts for Atlanta following his June promotion.
With the first full season of his major league career ahead of him in 1991, Avery’s spring training goals mirrored the Braves as a whole – just find ways to improve.
“I was just hoping to get better,” Avery said. “I was 3-11 as a rookie, but I was always confident. I wasn’t really questioning that I would get better, but if you haven’t felt the success at that level, then it makes you wonder a little bit. I just wanted to get off to a good start in spring training and kind of took that a little more serious.”
One of the major factors working in Avery’s favor was the unwavering support of manager Bobby Cox. Even though Avery struggled mightily as a rookie, Cox believed the young lefty was primed for a breakout season and insisted Avery be included on Atlanta’s opening day roster.
That opinion was not universal, however. Newly hired general manager John Schuerholz was not convinced. One look at the 1990 numbers certainly supports Schuerholz’s assessment, but Cox went to bat for Avery to break camp with the Braves and Schuerholz reconsidered.
“I’m sure there was talk about me not even making the team, going to Triple-A, and trying to get stronger or better,” Avery said. “Bobby fought for me to stay. He actually told me that after I retired and I came back to spring training a couple of times. He said Schuerholz was in favor of sending me back down and Bobby just told him, “No.” I mean, that’s just the kind of person he was, the kind of manager he was. He had confidence in you and wasn’t afraid to take chances, too.”
The gambit by Cox paid off and it did not take Avery long to prove his worth to the Braves as the 1991 season got underway.
Atlanta won eight of Avery’s first 10 starts as he compiled a 6-2 record with a 3.19 ERA in 59 1/3 innings. The Braves raced out to a 25-19 start and trailed the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers by just a half-game in the old National League West standings after two months.
Strong starting pitching was the foundation for the Atlanta’s new-found success.
Tom Glavine was putting together what would turn into a Cy Young Award campaign, while Avery and veteran Charlie Liebrandt were supplying quality innings. The biggest issue for the rotation was the early struggles of John Smoltz, who went 2-11 in the first half before rediscovering his form down the stretch.
While the Braves enjoyed their best start in nearly a decade, June tested their mettle in ways many of the younger players had yet to experience. It was with those challenges in mind that new Atlanta signed several veterans to strengthen the roster over the winter.
Longtime St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Terry Pendleton brought Gold Glove excellence to the hot corner while first baseman Sid Bream and slick-fielding shortstop Rafael Belliard were signed away from the Pittsburgh Pirates to help shore up the infield defense.
“The leadership was Sid and Terry,” Avery said. “Those guys came over and just changed the way our defense played. We weren’t nearly as strong defensively in 1990. Terry also had an MVP season at the plate. Just a bunch of perfect things came together – young guys that got better and then veterans that were hungry and came out and showed us how to take the field every day with the chance to win.”
The Braves weathered the storm during the summer months and found themselves back on sure footing as the second half began. Just as Atlanta won 9-of-11 coming out of the All-Star break, the Dodgers dropped 9-of-11 and the race was on for the division crown.
“Right after the All-Star break, we had a good stretch, they had a bad stretch, and we cut the lead,” Avery recalled. “From then on, it was close all the way to the last day. So, we felt like it was almost playoff baseball, even during the season for the last month. Then, when we got in the playoffs, it was like we were already ready and tested a little bit. We played well against Pittsburgh and played well against Minnesota. Just fell one run short.”
Over the final 38 games, Atlanta and Los Angeles traded the division lead back and forth eight times as they battled all the way down to the very last series of the regular season.
Tied with three games to go, the Braves took the first two games from the Houston Astros to complete an eight-game winning streak while the Dodgers dropped 2-of-3 to the Giants. Just like that, Atlanta celebrated its first division title since 1982.
The ride was just getting started, however.
Atlanta’s next challenge was a National League Championship Series battle against the Pirates, a team led by future Hall of Fame manager Jim Leyland and starring All-Star sluggers Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla, and former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek among others.
Pittsburgh was seeking redemption after losing the 1990 NLCS to the Cincinnati Reds and cruised to a 5-1 victory as Drabek bested Glavine to open the series.
The Braves had an answer, however. Avery was waiting in the wings to give the first of two electric pitching performances at a chilly Three Rivers Stadium in Game 2.
With the gametime temperature a brisk 51 degrees, Avery had no trouble heating up.
“I was really never a nervous person,” Avery said of his preparation for that Game 2 start. “I was always pretty confident. So, I treated it like another start. Obviously, I was used to the cold weather being from Michigan. I think that was a big factor for me, but I just felt good.”
Avery delivered 8 1/3 innings of shutout baseball before finally giving way to Alejandro Peña with the tying run in scoring position in a 1-0 game. The veteran righty recorded the final two outs and sent the series to Atlanta tied at a game apiece.
Unfortunately for the Braves, they went on to lose 2-of-3 at Atlanta–Fulton County Stadium. Back in Pittsburgh with their season on the brink, Avery once again took the ball for Atlanta in hopes of forcing a decisive Game 7.
Just like his postseason debut six days prior, he would not disappoint.
This time Avery tossed eight scoreless innings against Drabek as Atlanta won another 1-0 game with Peña slamming the door. The next day, Smoltz continued his redemption arc with a complete game shut-out in Game 7 to send the Braves to their first World Series since 1958.
Avery’s masterclass – 16 1/3 shutout innings and 17 strikeouts – earned him NLCS MVP honors and still stands as one of the greatest postseason pitching performances in franchise history. All of that from unproven young pitcher who almost didn’t make the opening day roster.
Cox’s insistence that Avery be a part of the rotation from Day 1 instilled a confidence that only grew as the lefty gained more and more valuable experience throughout the season. Avery finished the regular season 18-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 35 starts and 210 1/3 innings.
“I got better and better as it went on and then by the time the playoffs came, I was really confident,” Avery said.
Experience was one part of the equation, but youth also worked to Avery’s advantage against the Pirates. He was seemingly unphased by the October stage.
“I mean, I went out and I was 21 years old,” Avery said. “Sometimes, it’s good to be young enough to where you don’t really know what’s going on. I didn’t really know about being nervous yet. If it was later in my career, I probably would’ve realized it was a little more serious. But at the time, I just went out and treated it like another start.”
Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone was one of the many who marveled at Avery’s calm demeanor in the biggest games the team had played to that point.
“We used to go over the lineup, but at no time did I ever say, ‘You can’t throw this guy this (pitch),’” Mazzone recalled of the Game 6 preparations. “After we do that, I’m walking down to the bullpen with Steve and I said, ‘Steve, you got this figured out?’ And he goes, ‘Yeah.’ So, I said, ‘Good, tell me.’ And says, ‘I’m going to warm up, find out what I’ve got, and then pitch accordingly.’ That’s the best scouting report I’ve ever heard.”
Even with Bonds, Bonilla and a host of other veteran hitters in the lineup, Avery remained cool, calm, and collected. And he stayed with his tried-and-true game plan.
“I always knew my strengths, so even if the hitter’s report is that he’s got the same strengths that I do, I’m going to take my chances,” Avery said. “If I felt good with a certain pitch, I was going to use it whether he was good against it or not. I just tried to put it in a spot that I couldn’t get hurt with it. I always had pretty good control and, when I was younger, I had good stuff. That combination is pretty good when it’s going right.”
After taking the Pirates to seven games and prevailing in the NLCS, the Braves headed to the World Series against Minnesota, another worst-to-first team. The Twins won the American League pennant in five games over the Toronto Blue Jays, a future World Series foe for Atlanta.
The Braves and Twins delivered an instant classic in which each team won all its home games. Minnesota went up 2-0 in the Fall Classic before Atlanta brought the series home and won three straight.
Avery started the first World Series home game ever played in Atlanta, delivering seven innings and allowing just two earned runs. The Braves won in dramatic fashion in extra innings as Mark Lemke singled home David Justice for a 5-4 victory in the bottom of the 12th inning.
Up three games to two, Atlanta had two chances to win the series back in Minnesota, but Kirby Puckett’s walk-off home run in Game 6 was followed by the epic Game 7 duel between future Hall of Famers Jack Morris and John Smoltz.
Smoltz pitched scoreless ball into the eighth, but Morris fired a 10-inning shutout and Gene Larkin’s pinch-hit single with the bases loaded gave Minnesota the series with a 1-0 victory.
Atlanta returned to the World Series in 1992 against Toronto, falling short in six games. The Braves’ next opportunity to win it all would not come for three more years, but the 1995 team finally broke through. Justice hit a solo home in Game 6 to back Glavine’s 8-inning masterpiece as the Braves beat the Cleveland Indians for their first world title since 1957.
Avery was among 10 remaining members of the 1991 team on Atlanta’s 1995 World Series roster. After four years of October battles, the Braves finally won it all.
“It’s the best,” Avery said of the celebration. “That’s why we play, to try and run on a field after the last out of the World Series and be able to tell everyone you’re the best team in the world. To go through the losses almost made 1995 even more sweet, you know? We came close an awful lot of times and you realized that it’s not easy no matter what. For us to be able to complete that season on top was pretty special.”
All of those Octobers and the memories those teams created still echo to this day.
Avery closed out an 11-year career in 2003, back in Michigan as a member of the Detroit Tigers. He finished 96-83 with a 4.09 ERA in 297 career appearances.
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 21: David Bednar #53 of the New York Yankees pitches during the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on August 21, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Yankees bullpen suffered a rare meltdown on Tuesday night, squandering multiple leads to fumble the series opener against the Astros, 9-7. That being said, the relief corps has been an unequivocal strength of the team during a summer light on offensive contributions, second in MLB in ERA (3.06) to help keep the team afloat in the absence of multiple star sluggers. Anchoring that bullpen is the steady presence of David Bednar, who earns Sequence of the Week honors for locking down the save against the Blue Jays in that series’ opener.
We join Bednar with two outs in the ninth inning last Friday against the Blue Jays. It’s a nail-biter of a game with the offense still sputtering, made all the more tense by Brandon Valenzuela’s double to lead off the frame. That brings Brett Bateman to the plate as the tying run, the pesky center fielder already 3-for-5 with a double and a triple.
Bateman collected two of his three hits against fastballs up in the zone, so Bednar tries to exploit that strength by throwing a splitter that looks like a strike out of the hand, relying on the downward movement to extract a chase from the hitter.
This pitch is a little too far away from the zone to get the chase that Bednar was after. Even though it’s a ball in the dirt, it isn’t a complete waste pitch. A ball like this can serve to set up pitches later in the AB, as we will see in a short time.
Austin Wells calls for another splitter, setting a firm target to indicate that he wants Bednar to land this one closer to the bottom edge of the zone.
In order to get the hitter to chase your secondary pitches, sometimes you have to show that you can land them in the zone for a called strike. It’s a dangerous proposition for a pitch like the splitter, particularly like this one that lands pretty much middle-middle. However, Bednar is able to fool Bateman, who gives up on this pitch early given it leaves Bednar’s hand looking like a ball above the zone.
Banking that the pair of splitters have slowed down Bateman’s bat, Bednar throws his first four-seamer of the encounter.
You might wonder why Bateman would watch this fastball down the middle go by for strike two. That is the effect of that first pitch splitter in the dirt.
While not perfectly tunneled with that first pitch splitter, this four-seamer looks similar enough out of Bednar’s hand to cause the hitter to pause. To me, this suggests that Bateman is sitting on the splitter, and after having observed the way the first pitch broke down out of the zone, he is likely eliminating any pitch that leaves Bednar’s hand aimed belt-high or lower.
Despite not throwing the three best pitches to open this AB, Bednar nonetheless has the count leverage in his favor, 1-2. Landing that four-seamer for a called strike reset the hitter’s eye level up and forces him to defend against another heater, which creates a perfect opportunity to go for a chase against the splitter below the zone.
This is by far the best pitch Bednar has thrown in this sequence and it deservedly gets the strikeout swinging to end the game. It looks like an inside strike out of Bednar’s hand before plummeting off the table and below Bateman’s bat.
After a minor blip in mid-May, Bednar has reclaimed his rightful place among the game’s most reliable closers. He reaches 30 saves for the second time in his career and has been an anchoring presence late in games with a 0.74 ERA in his last 32 appearances and 36.1 innings pitched. Dominant pitching has been the primary driving force behind the Yankees remaining in touching distance of first in the AL East, Bednar leading the rest of the bullpen by example.
The home run heat is flickering heading into an important Thursday MLB player prop slate, and although there are fewer home run props to look into, there are a handful of spots today that have to be on the card.
Jackson Chourio has a great right-vs-lefty matchup vs. Sean Manaea — who is one of the hardest-hit pitchers over the last 30 days — and Bryce Eldridge has a price in the Bay Area that's too good to pass up.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, Aug. 27.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Cole Carrigg
+680
Jackson Chourio
+390
Bryce Eldridge
+710
💲Today's HR parlay
+22219
Home run prediction: Cole Carrigg (+680)
The Rockies have a great home run matchup today against Jake Irvin in one of the best hitting parks on the slate, and I'm taking a No. 2 hitter with an OPS above .800 who went yard last night at nearly +700.
Cole Carrigg is a name lost on most — much like the entire Rockies lineup— but the switch-hitting 24-year-old is paying a big price. He has an OPS above .800 against both lefties and righties and took lefty reliever Will Dion 400 feet deep last night.
The entire Rockies lineup has a good chance to go deep today after putting up four homers yesterday. Hunter Goodman has gone yard in back-to-back games, but I struggle to play +250 to +270 odds on a home run.
Irvin is the best HR target on the board today. He has the fifth-worst HR/9 among all MLB starters over the last 30 days, the 20th-worst HR/FB rate, and the 25th-worst HardHit%. There could be a handful of dingers in this game.
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (+390)
I debated this pick with William Contreras at +450ish, but settled on the more probable home run after taking a long shot in the Rockies game.
Sean Manaea gets hit hard by right-handed bats, and Jackson Chourio could see five plate appearances today out of the leadoff spot. With Jake Bauers on the bench, Chourio is the best HR hitter in this lineup, head and shoulders above Brice Turang, who struggles against left-handed pitching.
The Mets starter has allowed 13 home runs across his last 54 innings and five long balls over his last three games, including a trio of homers in his last outing against the White Sox.
He ranks in the Bottom 20 among all MLB starters in HR/9 and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days, along with the third-worst hard-hit rate (HardHit%) at 49.4%.
I would bet this down to +350 and think the Brewers have a Top 3 dinger matchup on the slate today.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SNY, Brewers.TV
Home run prediction: Bryce Eldridge (+710)
This is one of the few HRs today showing expected value in Covers' projections. Bryce Eldridge missed the last series to attend his grandfather's funeral, but before that, he was slugging .500 over his previous four series with three homers.
He gets a tasty matchup with Arizona calling up Triple-A starter Jose Cabrera, who has been hit hard in his limited MLB innings, allowing three home runs in 17+ innings while posting a 5.80 ERA at Triple-A this year. He also just gave up three homers and eight runs in his last start for the Reno Aces.
This is a great outlier price, with some books pricing Eldridge around +350 and a fair price closer to +500.
I don't love dingers at Oracle, but Eldridge has hit eight of his 14 homers there this year and is slugging at the same rate at home as he is on the road.
Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
Where to watch: One National or Two local
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 32-166, -13.7 units
Best home run combo for August 27
Cole Carrigg
Trade Now +22219
Jackson Chourio
Bryce Eldridge
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 26: Jake McCarthy #31 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates in front of Nasim Nuñez #26 of the Washington Nationals after hitting a double during the first inning at Nationals Park on August 26, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Last night was not the worst loss of the season, but it was the most humiliating. They got taken to the woodshed by a bad Rockies team. It will be a quick turnaround from that disaster, as they play a day game this afternoon. The boys will look to salvage a split.
The struggling CJ Abrams is still limited to DH duties. He is one of only a couple lefties in the lineup though. With Gabriel Hughes’ reverse splits, we will see a lot of righties. Andres Chaparro is at first base over Abimelec Ortiz in this one. Brady House, Jorbit Vivas and Keibert Ruiz are also back in the lineup. Jake Irvin will be on the mound.
The Rockies are making some changes at the bottom of the order. Superstar Hunter Goodman is out of the lineup, with Brett Sullivan catching instead. Zac Veen is also back in the lineup and is playing left. That moves Jake McCarthy to DH. As mentioned, Gabriel Hughes is on the mound.
After last night’s loss, this team has a lot of soul searching to do. Blake Butera rightly called out his team’s poor effort. Hopefully this lights a much needed spark under these players. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are sitting as a slim -107 moneyline favorite at Oracle Park tonight as they begin a four-game set with the San Francisco Giants.
However, my Diamondbacks vs. Giants predictions are targeting San Fran on the moneyline amid their impressive offensive form, and Landen Roupp's success in the Bay Area.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 27 before first pitch at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Giants today: Giants (-103)
The San Francisco Giants enter this contest swinging it well, carrying a 113 wRC+ across the last week. That profile plays against Jose Cabrera, who has allowed seven earned runs over his last two outings while struggling with command.
Cabrera has not pitched in the big leagues since July 8 and owns a 5.46 FIP across four appearances this season, making him tough to trust.
Landen Roupp is not in peak form either, but he has been more reliable at Oracle Park, posting a 3.50 FIP while allowing just 0.60 HR/9 at home.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are hovering around league average offensively, and Roupp’s home profile gives San Francisco the cleaner edge.
Play this pick up to -130.
COVERS INTEL: The Giants are consistently squaring up the baseball with a 47.9% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate in their last seven games. For the season, San Fran's hard-hit rate sits at 37.5%.
Diamondbacks vs Giants Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+109)
I’m targeting the Over 8.5 in the Bay Area.
Arizona has a 101 wRC+ over the last week, which is respectable enough to contribute here. Roupp has held his own at Oracle Park, but he is not untouchable, and San Francisco’s bullpen owns a 4.03 FIP over its last 31.2 frames.
The Diamondbacks’ relief corps has been even more vulnerable. Over the last week, Arizona’s pen owns a 5.95 FIP while surrendering 2.36 HR/9. The Giants should have a clear scoring path against both Cabrera and a struggling bullpen given their recent offensive form.
Arizona has enough offensive life to chip in, strengthening the Over case.
Play this pick down to +100.
Diamondbacks vs Giants home run prediction: Rafael Devers (+442)
Rafael Devers is one of the hottest power hitters in baseball at the moment. He has smacked four home runs over his previous seven games while carrying a ridiculous .500 ISO during that span.
The slugger owns a 48.5% fly-ball rate at home this season and a 55% fly-ball rate over the last week. Even better, he has turned 36.4% of those recent fly balls into home runs.
With Cabrera prone to the long ball at 1.53 HR/9 this season and Arizona’s bullpen also allowing too many homers lately, Devers has multiple paths to another bomb tonight.
Play this pick down to +400.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 58-70, -20.33 units
Over/Under bets: 70-54, +5.77 units
Diamondbacks vs Giants weather
Weather at Oracle Park looks cool and clean tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 66°F to 63°F. Winds start around 9 mph before easing to 3–5 mph, and rain chances sit at 0% throughout. No delay concern, though the cool air could slightly limit carry.
Diamondbacks vs Giants odds
Moneyline: Diamondbacks -107 | Giants -103
Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+152) | Giants +1.5 (-168)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+109) | Under 8.5 (-126)
Diamondbacks vs Giants trend
The Over is 5-0-2 in Roupp's last 7 starts as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Giants and game info
Location
Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Date
Thursday, August 27, 2026
First pitch
9:45 p.m. ET
TV
Peacock
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Jose Cabrera (0-2, 5.60 ERA)
Giants starting pitcher
Landen Roupp (7-13, 4.34 ERA)
Diamondbacks vs Giants latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Atlanta Braves (78-55) have announced themselves as World Series contenders this week with a pair of wins over the LA Dodgers (80-53). Tonight, they go for the sweep.
Last night's game had the feel of a playoff game. Atlanta struck first when Matt Olson launched his 37th home run of the season in the first, but Los Angeles answered quickly scoring once in the second and twice in the third thanks to a two-run blast from Tommy Edman that gave Los Angeles a 3-1 lead. The Braves rallied in the fourth. Austin Riley drove in a run with a sacrifice fly before rookie catcher Drake Baldwin ripped a two-run double, turning a deficit into a 4-3 Atlanta advantage. Baldwin finished with three hits and two RBIs. Atlanta added another run in the sixth when Sean Murphy connected for a solo homer to make it 5-3. The Dodgers battled back in the seventh. Mookie Betts singled home Shohei Ohtani, and Edman later drew a bases-loaded walk to tie the game at 5-5. The game ultimately was decided in the ninth. Lane Thomas doubled against Dodgers’ closer Tanner Scott before Riley was intentionally walked. Atlanta manager Brian Snitker countered with Ha-Seong Kim, who delivered a two-out walk-off single to left field, scoring Thomas and sending the Braves to a dramatic 6-5 victory.
The victory gave Atlanta consecutive one-run wins to open the series. It was their third win in a row and maintained their lead in the NL East at 4.5 games over the Phillies. The Dodgers are still comfortably ahead in the NL West but now its game on in the race for the top two seeds in the National League. Milwaukee has a two game lead over the Dodgers for the top seed and the Braves are now within two games of the Dodgers.
Los Angeles hands the ball to its ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-7, 2.61 ERA). The righthander takes the mound tonight in excellent form. Over his last five starts, he has compiled a 1.97 ERA and recorded quality starts in four of those five outings. The Dodgers have won his last three starts and five of his last six. Atlanta counters with veteran left-hander Chris Sale (12-9, 2.20 ERA). The southpaw has been nearly untouchable at Truist Park carrying a 1.65 home ERA. Sale has posted a 2.70 ERA over his last five starts overall and produced a quality start in each of the five.
The Game within the Game Tonight: Chris Sale has allowed just eight home runs in 135 innings. The Dodgers rank fifth in the National League with 168 home runs. Who blinks tonight?
Lets dive further into today’s game and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Dodgers vs. Braves
Date: Thursday, August 27, 2026
Time: 7:15PM EST
Site: Truist Park
City: Atlanta, GA
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, FS1, BravesVision, Spectrum SportsNet LA
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The Latest Odds: Dodgers vs. Braves
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: LA Dodgers (+111), Atlanta Braves (-119)
Spread: Dodgers +1.5 (-217), Braves -1.5 (+177)
Total: 6.5 runs
Probable Starting Pitchers – Dodgers vs. Braves for August 27
Braves: Chris Sale Season Totals: 135.0 IP, 12-9, 2.20 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 166K, 28 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Dodgers vs. Braves
Mookie Betts is 5-14 including 1 HR in his career against Chris Sale
Freddie Freeman is 4-12 including 2 HRs against Sale
Teoscar Hernandez has struck out 8 times in 20 ABs against Sale
Ha-Seong Kim is 2-5 including 1 HR in his career against Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has struck out 9 batters in each of his last 2 starts
Chris Sale has struck out 6+ hitters in each of his last 6 starts and 8+ in 4 of the 6
Matt Olson’s HR last night was his 1st since August 16
Drake Baldwin is riding a modest 3-game hitting streak (6-12)
Top Betting Trends & Insights: Dodgers vs. Braves
The Dodgers are 54-79 on the Run Line this season
The Braves are 72-61 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 60 times in Atlanta’s 133 games this season (60-67-6)
The OVER has cashed 62 times in LA’s 133 games this season (62-70-1)
Expert picks & predictions: Dodgers vs. Braves for August 27
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
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Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Dodgers and the Braves:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Dodgers on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 6.5
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It was back to winning ways yesterday with another 2-1 day to keep the August heat turned up on the pitcher and MLB player props.
It's about time the Brewers slow down Jacob Misiorowski with a big lead in the NL Central, bettors will see the best of Yoshinobu Yamamoto tonight vs. Chris Sale and the Dodgers wins dipping, and finally, I'll show you where you can find a better price when a pitcher's Over 2.5 earned run prop pops to the Over.
These are my favorite strikeout and pitcher props for Thursday, August 27.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
Player/Team
Pick
Odds
Jacob Misiorowski
Under 8.5 strikeouts
-108
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Over 6.5 strikeouts
+124
Giants first-five team total
F5 TT Over 2.5
+124
Strikeout prop: Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 strikeouts (-108)
Jacob Misiorowski can coast into his NL Cy Young win this year, but the innings are stacking up, and the Milwaukee Brewers are 6.5 games up on the Cubs for the top spot in the NL Central. This is a young arm with 145 innings already and a hopeful long playoff run ahead. He threw just 130 innings all of last year, so Milwaukee has plenty of reason to manage his workload. The projection today is 91 pitches and 7.55 strikeouts.
The righty has had a long leash in his last two starts, throwing 98 and 96 pitches while recording 18 outs in both, yet he failed to reach seven Ks in both outings. There are plenty of routes to this Under: he could be on a tighter leash, fail to reach nine Ks even with a full workload, or have his start shortened by the threat of rain.
Then there's the possibility of big winds blowing out today at Citi Field, which could make things even tougher. The projections think this is a full strikeout too long and one of my favorite bets on the MLB picks page.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SNY, Brewers.TV
Strikeout prop: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 strikeouts (+124)
I'm betting on motivation and a long leash from Yoshinobu Yamamoto today. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in danger of being swept by the Atlanta Braves, something that's already happened three times since the start of July. L.A. needs the best of Yamamoto today, and the matchup against Chris Sale should bring out the best in an elite pitcher who has a track record of thriving in higher-leverage opportunities.
The L.A. starter has a 100-pitch leash and has hit this prop in 50% of his starts since the start of July, while coming off back-to-back nine-strikeout outings. Atlanta is a Top-15 K% matchup, and even if this is slightly below 50% probable, the price is still solid expected value.
I have this around 48% today, putting the fair price at just under even money after accounting for the margin.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: BravesVision, SportsNet Los Angeles
Giants prop: First-five team total Over 2.5 (+124)
I understand this doesn't sound like a pitcher prop, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are starting Triple-A call-up Jose Cabrera, and I want to bet his Over 2.5 earned runs at +117. This is a pitcher with an outs market of 14.5 and isn't expected to sniff the 16th out. So why would I bet +117 and risk the heartbreak of giving up unearned outs when I can get +124 for just runs?
It makes no sense, and that's why you should bet the Giants' first five innings team total Over instead of a bad, short-leashed pitcher Over earned runs. THE BAT is projecting 2.46 earned runs from Cabrera but 2.63 runs for the Giants through the first five innings.
Today's lesson: If you like an Over 2.5 earned runs prop from a bad pitcher who likely isn't going more than five innings, the opposing first-five team total Over is almost always the better option and offers better value.
Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCS-Bay Area, Dbacks.TV
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 24-20, +6.37 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Cole Carrigg
Jackson Chourio
Bryce Eldridge
COVERS INTEL: The Giants are consistently squaring up the baseball with a 
Yoshinobu Yamamoto