Category: Baseball

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Elephant Rumblings: CPL Taking Early Shape

Morning everyone!

Our 2026 Community Prospect List is through the first three rounds and there weren’t any surprises in the early going. Shortstop Leo De Vries absolutely dominated the first round of voting to no one’s surprise, taking over 95% of the vote to get things started. Considering he was the #3 overall prospect in the entire sport last year, it was an easy call for A’s fans to anoint him the top prospect in the system again. In a bit of a frustrating news De Vries couldn’t keep that spot in this year’s top prospects list, falling to the fourth spot behind Brewers middle infield prospect Jesus Made. De Vries didn’t do anything but tear the cover off the ball after the trade over from the San Diego Padres last year so one can’t help but think that De Vries is getting dinged a bit for being in the Athletics’ system now. Or perhaps if the top three weren’t also shortstop prospects De Vries would be higher up on the list. The top four prospects right now will all be judged against one another for the next few years and it’ll be interesting to see which ones have the best futures. Hopefully it’s our guy.

The next two rounds were also fairly predictable but also closer. Left-hander Jamie Arnold took roughly 60% of the vote in Round 2 to take the second spot on our CPL. Arnold only just joined the organization this past year when he was drafted 11th overall, which was a miracle for the Athletics considering he was expected to go much higher than that. While he’s a bit farther away as he’s yet to pitch in a professional game yet, A’s brass believes he could be a fast riser through the system. The A’s have had stud lefty prospects not pan out in the past though (staring at you, AJ Puk) so let’s not assume we have a budding ace before he’s even thrown a professional pitch. That’s the hope and the dream though, for the left-hander to be atop the rotation when the A’s make their eventual push for the playoffs.

Another left-hander followed suit in Gage Jump, who also took roughly 60% of the vote en route to claiming the third overall spot. A second-rounder in 2024, Jump’s rise has caught even A’s fans by surprise. A survivor of the dreaded Tommy John, Jump doesn’t have the typical build of a major league starter, or the obvious arnsenal and advanced repetoire of other high-end starter prospects. Instead Jump uses deception and a funky arm angle to give himself an advantage on the mound. He might not have the high ceiling that Arnold does, and there are some in the industry that believe an eventual move to the bullpen will happen, but for the coming year Jump is going to be continued to groomed as a starter and has the potential to be a quality mid-rotation starter behind Arnold on a future playoff squad. Jump currently ranks as the game’s #57 ranked prospect and could see the big leagues as soon as this summer.

Now that we’ve gotten the obvious top three out of the way, things will start to get much more interesting. Outfielder Henry Bolte has been considered the #4 prospect by national media and scouts in the know, but right-handed pitcher Braden Nett has become a serious contender to lay claim to that position. Then we have Wei-En Lin, who has absolutely rocketed up everyone’s boards and could be the option there ahead of Bolte and Nett. The early returns from you guys indicate it’s going to be one of those three, and it’s going to be close. So don’t wait! Go to our CPL and cast your vote if you haven’t already!

Have a good day A’s fans.

A’s Coverage:

MLB News and Interest:

Best of X:

Would be cool to see Morii succeed on both sides of the ball:

A preview of the third base battle between Muncy and Hernaiz:

Velocity is so in right now:

So no athlete, or a re-run with a previous cover guy?

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40 in 40: Josh Naylor is fearless

Here’s the location of a 99 mile per hour fastball.

I wouldn’t advise swinging at this pitch. In the Statcast era, there have been 2,416 pitches thrown at least that fast in this part of the plate. The rare guys who’ve swung have a 56% whiff rate and a .307 xwOBAcon. (Imagine Mike Zunino’s whiff rate with Leody Taveras’s quality of contact. Only worse.) Swinging at that pitch is frankly reckless. But here’s what Josh Naylor can do with it:

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There’s an Elizabeth Taylor quote that aired relentlessly during the playoffs as Fox pushed its documentary about her: “I don’t think I’m reckless. But I am fearless.” That’s Josh Naylor. And it’s exactly why we all fell for him so hard so quickly. He’s not afraid to swing at a pitch like that, but because he can pull it off, it’s not reckless.

Ryan dug into Naylor’s penchant for swinging high and away after Naylor’s three-hit ALCS Game 2. In that piece, Ryan pointed to Dan Wilson’s thinking on why Naylor can get away with this where others can’t: “His swing is so adjustable. When he sees a pitch up in the zone, he’s able to stay really short and get on top of it, and that’s the key.”

By nature, Naylor’s a bat control hitter. He’s got the raw power you’d expect for a first baseman, and he could use that to chase dingers. But rather than selling out for launch angle, he uses his skills to square up the ball at the 89th percentile, peppering hits all over the field, with enough power to keep pitchers honest. Given his baseball IQ, you trust that choice.

It’s that ability to get the most out of his swing that allows him to fearlessly go after pitches most guys would only flail at. In the Mariners’ biggest regular season series of the year, he went after another high pitch to help bury the Astros.

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The conventional wisdom is to elevate and celebrate. Naylor knows he’s better this way, and he’s brave enough to go against the grain.

While it comes through in his hitting, when you think of Josh Naylor’s fearlessness, it’s probably his baserunning that comes to mind first. And in this department, his fearlessness is actually underrated.

Naylor’s a big-bodied first baseman with a sprint speed in the third percentile, 12th lowest in MLB. And yet he stole 30 bases this year, including going a perfect 19 for 19 with Seattle. When he first started his spree, you could say it was just pitchers ignoring a big guy, but he didn’t get any less daring after the word got out.

So when people talk about his stolen bases, they usually talk about how he’s able to do it because of his baseball IQ. He can spot tendencies and timing in pitchers at an apparently elite level, enough to compensate for his concrete shoes. But consider the 27 other players with sprint speeds under 25 feet/second. 17 of them are catchers; it’s not exactly a low-baseball-IQ group. Yet those other 27 players combined for just 15 stolen base attempts. Naylor’s 32 attempts are a testament to his willingness to take risks. His 94% success rate proves he knows what he’s doing and that his baseball IQ is, in fact, elite.

This all came together in one of the biggest games in Mariners franchise history: Game 5 of the ALDS. If ever there was a time for caution, this would have been it. A slow guy getting caught stealing, wasting a precious base runner against Tarik Skubal, could easily have ended up being the story of how the Mariners were eliminated from the playoffs. But Josh Naylor wasn’t afraid to try, and in a game that went 15 innings, you can bet the run mattered.

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He plays defense the same way. As he daringly plays farther toward second than any other first baseman. Others play a bit farther from the bag, but they do it safely, playing back rather than shading towards second as Naylor does. His confidence that he can still cover the bag means he’s not sacrificing outs to play with optimized positioning. In other words, it’s not reckless. Aren’t you glad he wasn’t closer to the bag in ALCS Game 3? Lots of teams would like to position thier first baseman here against Alejandro Kirk. Only Naylor’s can actually do it.

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Naylor employs a style of play that seems crazy. But he’s not being reckless, just fearless. And beyond merely being good, this is what made him an instant fan favorite and a player the Mariners and their fans felt they couldn’t live without. It’s no wonder he was ready for the big moment.

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Josue De Paula leads 5 Dodgers in ESPN top 100 prospects

Kiley McDaniel unveiled his preseason rankings of top 100 prospects in baseball on Tuesday at ESPN. Like the previously released lists — Baseball America (120 names), MLB Pipeline (110 names), and The Athletic (100 names so far) — McDaniel will likely reveal more names beyond the top 100. Last year his list went to 200, for instance. But for now we have his top 100.

A total of five Dodgers are in the top 100 at ESPN, led by outfielder Josue De Paula at No. 21 overall. De Paula in the four national prospect lists that have been revealed in the last week has settled into a fairly narrow range, ranked 15th by MLB Pipeline, 20th at The Athletic, 21st at ESPN, and 24th at Baseball America.

McDaniel had high praise for De Paula, comparing him to Yordan Alvarez “if it clicks.”

Eduardo Quintero continued to rocket up these lists, ranked 37th by McDaniel after his preseason ranking of 106th overall prior to the 2025 season. Quintero, who is a year younger than De Paula and Zyhir Hope, won California League MVP last year and finished the season with extended time at High-A Great Lakes.

“His raw power, bat-to-ball ability, and raw foot speed are all around average, but Quintero makes the most of them, putting up big numbers while being young for his level,” McDaniel wrote. “As is, his hit/power/speed/defense in center field tools are all average to a tick above to go with his plus arm.”

Last preseason, seven Dodgers were ranked in the top 100 prospects by ESPN, led by pitcher Roki Sasaki at No. 1 overall and catcher Dalton Rushing 16th. Both played in the majors last season.

This year, shortstop Emil Morales is the youngest Dodger in the ESPN top-100 list, with the 19-year-old checking in at No. 65 overall. From McDaniel:

Morales has all of the traits to project big homer totals down the road (loft to his path, pull/lift, hard-hit rate, etc.), but that means that giving up some contact is part of that trade. His pitch selection is also below average, so in combination, that gives evaluators pause on his offensive projection.

In-game power usually comes later in the development process, but the Dodgers are the right development group to shepherd him through this process, and the pieces are here for a top-10 prospect in the sport if everything clicks.

PlayerPos2026 age2026 preseason2025 preseason
Josue De PaulaOF212120
Eduardo QuinteroOF2037106
Zyhir HopeOF214070
Mike SirotaOF2355NR
Emil MoralesSS196580
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Just in case you needed it, here’s another reason to hate the Dodgers

Last week, I wrote this article noting that a number of owners were “enraged” about the Dodgers signing Kyle Tucker and that some owners were going to push for a salary cap “no matter what.”

The Dodgers are doing a pretty good job of playing MLB’s villain team, the equivalent to the “Evil Empire” the Yankees were back in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Now comes a report written by Drew Lerner of Awful Announcing, citing ESPN’s Joon Lee, who says the Dodgers have been getting favorable revenue-sharing treatment for their TV revenue — and that this break for the Dodgers will continue for another 13 years. Here are the details:

In a recent report, Lee outlined how the Dodgers have historically benefited from the revenue-sharing system as a result of the club’s bankruptcy and subsequent sale in 2012. Lee reports that teams typically share about one-third of their local television revenue, but the Dodgers, in the midst of their bankruptcy proceedings in federal court, secured a much more favorable rate of about 10%.

Given the Dodgers have by far the most lucrative local broadcast deal in MLB (a ludicrous $334 million per year), Lee estimates the team could avoid contributing about $66 million per year to the league’s revenue-sharing pool under its special arrangement. That, of course, doesn’t sit well with fans of other clubs, who in recent years have seen the Dodgers buy their way to one of the most stacked rosters in the history of the game.

Previously, it was unknown exactly how long the Dodgers would retain these favorable terms. But Lee revealed in his report, citing a league source, that the agreement goes through 2039, when the Dodgers’ current local broadcast deal expires. In other words, the team’s built-in advantages could benefit them for another 13 years.

You can watch Lee’s full report at the link in that quote, or a summary of it here.

This was done, as noted, because the Dodgers declared bankruptcy during the Frank McCourt ownership era, which ended more than 13 years ago. New ownership took advantage of that, as well as the revenue coming in under their huge Charter Communications RSN deal, to become the most dominant team in the league. L.A. has won the NL West in 12 of the last 13 seasons, missing out only in 2021 when the Giants had that freak 107-win year and the Dodgers won “only” 106, which is tied (with 2019) for the second-most wins in Dodgers franchise history. They’ve played in five World Series in those 13 years, winning three (and probably would have made that four if not for the Astros cheating scandal in 2017).

From the Awful Announcing article, here’s how much the Dodgers have their proverbial thumbs on the scale:

Charter Communications, the telecom giant that owns Spectrum SportsNet LA, the television home of the Dodgers, would reportedly have to declare bankruptcy to wiggle its way out of the $334 million-per-year deal. That’s not something Charter, whose main business is providing broadband service to tens of millions of customers nationwide, necessarily wants to do.

So while other clubs are accepting cuts to local broadcast revenue as cord-cutting threatens regional sports networks, the Dodgers are sitting pretty. And it makes the team’s favorable arrangement look even more absurd to the average fan.

Whether the Dodgers will be able to maintain this arrangement with Charter until 2039 remains to be seen. The league may have an opportunity to rewrite some of its revenue-sharing procedures once the current collective bargaining agreement expires after this season.

But for now, the optics do not look great. The Dodgers aren’t paying their fair share and are able to buy whatever players they want.

The conclusion is absolutely correct, in my view. The Dodgers are getting a break that might have been reasonable 13 years ago, but it certainly isn’t now. As noted, this will almost certainly be something that’s brought up in the CBA negotiations coming up later this year.

One thing is certain. There’s not a level playing field in MLB. There should be, in my view, so that the teams that win most aren’t just the teams with the most money — they should be the teams with the best baseball management. If a salary cap, along with a floor and a guaranteed portion of MLB revenue to players, is how to accomplish that — then bring it on.

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I went to a baseball game in Japan and it was amazing

The crack of the bat. The growing crescendo of cheers as the ball flew over the outfield fence. The flashing lights in celebration of the home run. The jubilation of the team and stadium announcer as the batter rounded the bases. Though my wife and I were thousands of miles away from our home, the baseball experience at its core is delightfully universal.

Then, the pep band started playing the home run hitter’s personalized song, and the crowd chanted along. That part was different. 

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Let’s take a few steps back. I’ve been to a handful of epic games in my life. I took my wife to her first Kansas City Royals game in 2011, which just so happened to be Eric Hosmer’s MLB debut. We went to the Justin Maxwell walkoff grand slam game in 2013. I was at the 2014 Wild Card Game, and a handful of other playoff games since then. 

And while I don’t have a particularly impressive set of MLB parks I’ve been to, we try to go to a game when we travel domestically. We saw Shohei Ohtani hit a home run in Dodgers Stadium. We saw Pete Alonso hit a home run at Citi Field. We almost got heat stroke going to Coors Field and the Great American Ball Park in cloudless skies during the dead of summer. We had the high privilege of, uh, watching Eric Skoglund give up 12 runs in Cleveland before the Royals got their second baserunner.

So when my wife and I were planning our trip to Japan in celebration of our 10th wedding anniversary in 2024, there were a few key parts of our trip. One of those was attending a professional Japanese baseball game. 

Japan’s pro baseball league is called Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). Since the country’s total geographic footprint is about as large as the state of California, there are way fewer teams–12, in total. Ten of those teams play on the main island of Honshu, with one playing on the northern island of Hokkaido and another on the southern island of Kyushu. 

We almost didn’t make a game. Even though we were in Japan for almost two weeks, a few factors conspired against us. One, there are only ever six games going on at one time, which doesn’t present a lot of options. Two, it just had to fit our schedule. And three, there was a typhoon that resulted in cancellations of the entire league’s schedule for multiple days (even those that played indoors).

But we did eventually get to see one close to the end of our trip. The contest: the Hiroshima Toyo Carp playing the Yokohama DeNA Baystars.

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A photo of Yokohama Stadium in Japan. Baseball is played here.

Yokohama Stadium opened in 1978, and it’s located in the heart of the Yokohama city center right next to a train station. The stadium was fine; it had a small video board, but there were plenty of food vendors and seats were close to the action. Seating 35,000 in its baseball configuration, it looked like what you think a 1970s-era baseball-specific stadium looks like. It was a nice place to watch a game, but easily the least notable part about the experience.

As is the case everywhere in urban Japan, getting to the stadium was easy. We simply took a train from Shibuya Station and walked out of Yokohama-Koen station to find ourselves mere steps from the gates. Parking was nonexistent, and everyone was either getting off at the same station or simply walking from the many offices and apartments in the immediate area. 

The Japanness of it all started before we even got there. We took the train from Shibuya Station (yes, Persona 5 fans, that Shibuya Station) which dropped us off across the street from Yokohama Stadium. We had purchased tickets online and scanned them at the gate. There was minimal security; certainly less than in the States. From there, we went to our seats.

I know that a lot of folks try out food and drink at a stadium, and a friend of mine who visits MLB stadiums with his brother uses the cuisine quality as a core ingredient to judge the experience. We had already eaten, though, and even when I go to games here in the States I don’t usually eat at the stadium.

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Our seats were located along the first base side, the Kauffman Stadium equivalent of the sections in the low 140s. Notably, our seats were in the home section, which was specifically designated because the fans are very, very active in the game. In the photo above, you can see the Hiroshima Carp fans over along the third base dugout and, more notably, over in the outfield seats beyond the left field fence.

Baseball in Japan isn’t just another sport: it is the national sport of the nation, and it is an incredibly big deal there. Japanese fans therefore have more in common with European soccer fans than MLB fans. This means that they’re loud and proud all the time.

It also means that there are a bunch of chants. And when you go to an NPB game, you’ll hear bespoke chants for every player, and I do mean every player—even for American-born players, of which there were a couple in the game we went to. During the pregame lineup announcements, the Baystars pep band played the theme for each player. And yes, the Carp brought their own pep band, too, and played the themes for their own players.

The energy in the stadium was, as you might expect, incredible, and it only got more electric as the game went on. It was an early evening game, and more and more folks showed up directly from work, dressed in their work attire. When they got to their seats, they put on the Baystars or Carp gear that they brought with them and joined the chanting.

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The game itself was a fun time. It was a relatively high-scoring game considering the traditionally low-offense affair that is indicative of NPB play. There was a home run, and the home team ended up winning handily.

While playoff MLB games can be loud and raucous, the vibes of an NPB game are just so different. Not only do the players have individual chants, but these chants happen continuously when they are up to bat. It’s louder when the home crowd is up to bat, but remember that the away team also has a pep band and their own chanting fans in a block.

It was actually enjoyable to see the Baystars play the Carp. Earlier in the week, we had made a trip to Hiroshima. I had wanted to visit Peace Memorial Park, the A-Bomb Dome, and the Peace Memorial Museum, and we did so—it was equal parts somber and historically fascinating, and every American who visits Japan should try to make a trip there. When we were there, we stopped by the official Carp merch store at Mazda Zoom Zoom Stadium (its real name, I promise) and picked up some NPB merch, including a Carp jersey and a hat depicting a bowl of ramen swinging a baseball bat.

The charm of Hiroshima—a really lovely city with an expansive tram network—and their clear love for their baseball team won out, so I guess we’re Carp fans? So it was fun to watch that team play, even if we bought tickets in the wrong section. So it goes.

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All in all, watching an NPB game was an absolute blast and one of the highlights of a trip that included many, many highlights. Japan is a great place to visit; it’s got easily usable public transit, a wide variety of delicious food, and experiences for every kind of traveler.

And even though this trip happened a year and a half ago at this point, my wife and I are going back to Japan in April. The aforementioned typhoon prevented us from going to the Nagashima Spa Land amusement park, and that place has multiple bucket list roller coasters we wanted to ride.

Of course, that means another opportunity to watch NPB baseball. At the moment, that’s looking like a game between the Yomiuri Giants and the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, although it could be a few others. I can’t wait to experience it again.

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Rangers Reacts Results

Last week, in our Rangers Reacts Survey, we asked where folks thought the Texas Rangers would finish in the American League West.

And I have to say, y’all were a bit of a downer, though this was before the MacKenzie Gore trade gave everyone a shot in the arm.

Almost half of those who responded said that the Rangers would finish third in the division. The second most common result, though? Fourth place. I don’t know if it is the homeless A’s or the reclamation project Angels that folks feel the Rangers will be beat out by.

In fairness, first place and second place were barely behind fourth place in the voting. And only 3% said that the Rangers would finish last, so that’s something.

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Mets analysis: Grading the Mets’ Freddy Peralta trade

The Mets capped off their most active week of the offseason in a big way, acquiring Freddy Peralta and Tobias Meyers for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. It’s likely the last large addition the Mets will make this offseason, but boy it sure is a great way to round things out.

Peralta is obviously the centerpiece. Since moving to the rotation full time in 2021, he’s tossed 738.1 innings of 3.30 ERA ball. In that timeframe, he’s one of only 25 qualified starters to post a 20% or better K-BB%. At this juncture, he’s probably something like a top-15 or top-20 arm in the majors – not quite good enough to meet the definition of “sure fire ace”, but undoubtedly a solid number two starter who will complement Nolan McLean at the top of the rotation.

We should note that despite being generally healthy (outside of a shoulder strain in 2022), Peralta is not a exactly a work horse. The Brewers were extremely judicious with how they deployed him, frequently pulling Peralta early and leaning on their bullpen to get the rest of the way. That was much the same in 2025, when he averaged a hair over 5.1 innings per start and didn’t face a single batter four times in a single game all season. Not a typo, the most batters Peralta faced in a game last season was 27, and he only topped 23 batters 7 times. There’s nothing wrong with this per se, particularly in the modern game, but it is a limitation that the Mets’ field staff will have to manage. (Raise your hand if you have faith in Carlos Mendoza here.)

The Mets are also getting the chance to extend Peralta here, and he’s already indicated a willingness to sign a long-term deal. We can look to Tyler Glasnow as a reasonable comp; a pitcher traded one year prior to free agency in his age-30 season. Glasnow ultimately received an additional three-years and $110M, with a club / player option for a fifth season. He was due a higher base salary ($25M), but Peralta has the better track record, so maybe that comes out in the wash. Something in the low 9-figure range that takes Peralta through his age-34 season would seem to make sense, and that’s a good deal for the Mets in all likelihood. And, if this doesn’t work out, the Mets can QO him and get a pick back for their troubles.

Three paragraphs later, we get to Myers, who is far more than a throw in despite the narrative delay. Now four years and three teams removed from being traded for Junior Caminero (a real oopsie by Cleveland), Myers has settled in as a valuable swing-man with five seasons of team control remaining. No, the stuff doesn’t totally leap off the page, and his strikeout rate dipped in 2025, possibly because he had a lingering oblique injury. He also doesn’t have the same upside of Sproat in all likelihood (more on that in a moment). What he does do is fill a very similar role for the Mets’ roster with a similar amount of team control and some untapped potential. It’s a great get as the second piece.

Now, for the cost. Williams and Sproat were set to rank 4th and 5th respectively on our upcoming top-10 list. I was a bit lower on both than our final consensus:

#4: Jett Williams

I don’t disagree that much with Jett’s ranking here (I had Ewing above him, but no one else), but I still find myself pretty down on him as a prospect, and I don’t think it’s just prospect fatigue. I began voicing concerns about Jett’s hit tool ~2 years ago, and in that time he’s not really assuaged any of those worries. Sure, injuries have played a role and the strikeout rate has held steady in the low-20s, but that’s not because Williams is great at putting bat on ball, it’s because he just doesn’t swing. He ranked in the 6th percentile for hittable pitches taken, nuking his SEAGER down to 3.9 despite the aforementioned healthy walk and strikeout rates. Couple that with what is still just okay damage on contact and a tweener-ish defensive profile and this is trending more towards “high quality bench bat” or “second division starter” rather than the sort of player we were extolling as the future of the team in 2023.

#5: Brandon Sproat

Brandon Sproat does a lot of things well. He throws pretty hard, he finally landed on a breaking ball shape that works, and the change is still a decent pitch. Put in terms of physical skills, you can say that he has good arm speed and feel for spin. However, this has never really all come together for him, in large part because his fastball shape just isn’t viable at present. Even with the addition of a sinker last season – one that grades out better but still not great – I’m still not convinced he’s the type of arm who can make it through a lineup two or three times. If you couple that with the lack of development runway relative to other arms (Sproat is older and was selected as a senior out of a major college program, which would normally mean there’s less juice to squeeze) in the back of the top-10 and I think I’d actually prefer Sproat a good deal lower, even though he’s a totally justifiable top-100 prospect.

Both are definitely top-100 prospects, but neither are in the tier of guys that it particularly hurts to move. Especially when you’re the Mets and are inducing jumps on both sides of the ball these days – it’s a lot easier to move Brandon Sproat when you have Jonah Tong and Jack Wenninger, and it’s a lot easier to move Jett Williams when you have A.J. Ewing and Jacob Reimer.

This price is also roughly in line with another trade made by the Brewers, that being the Corbin Burnes deal. Burnes was a better arm making nearly double what Peralta will make in 2025, and he wasn’t likely to sign an extension either. Nevertheless, the Brewers gave up two prospects in the back half of the top-100 (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall, a package I would argue is of lower quality than what the Mets gave up but not by a huge margin) for one year of Burnes’ in 2024.

Had the Mets only received Peralta, this would’ve been a totally fine deal, a market-value acquisition for a #2 starter rental. With the addition of Myers and Peralta’s seeming willingness to extend, it looks even better. This deal receives an A.

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Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 23, RJ Petit

23. RJ Petit (115 points, 12 ballots)

RJ Petit is a tough guy to miss. Colorado’s pick in the 2025 Rule 5 draft from the Detroit Tigers organization is a 6’8”, 300-pound titan of a right-handed relief pitcher. Originally drafted by the Tigers in the 14th round of the 2021 draft out of Charleston Southern, the 26-year-old has mostly served as a reliever after dabbling with starting during his draft year. As one might surmise given his size, Petit can throw in the mid to high-90s with a downward plane. He pairs that velo with a hard, sweeping slider that tunnels well with the fastball and a developing change-up.

Mid-season 2025 Rank: N/A

High Ballot: 14

Mode Ballot: 23

Future Value: 35+, middle relief

Contract Status: 2025 Rule 5 Draft, Detroit Tigers, 40 Man Roster, three options remaining

MLB ETA: 2026

Petit entered 2025 back at Double-A Erie for the third season in a row (where he was of league-average age) despite posting decent results there in 2024 and being unprotected and unselected in that year’s Rule 5 draft. In 27 games with Erie, Petit posted a 2.28 ERA with a dominant 0.95 WHIP and a 9.6 K/9 rate against a 2.5 BB/9 rate in 43 1/3 innings.

Petit finally got the call up to Triple-A Toledo (which is in the much more pitcher-friendly International League) in mid-July. Petit appeared in 20 games at the level with a 2.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, an outstanding 12.9 K/9 rate, and a 3.9 BB/9 rate in 23 innings, including a save. Petit was strong against both righties (.629 OPS against) and lefties (.579 OPS) while allowing just four homers in 66 1/3 innings during 2025. Despite the success at the Triple-A level, Petit was again left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and this time the Rockies took him with the first pick.

Here’s some video of Petit from his time in the 2023 Arizona Fall League:

Here was Eric Longenhagen’s scouting report on Petit after the Rule 5 draft:

Petit is a pretty standard mid-90s fastball (94-97 mph, touch 98) and a plus slider reliever. He utilizes his slider in all counts because his size creates hittable plane on his fastball, but the addition of a second fastball type (he throws both elevated four-seamers and in-zone two-seamers) helped limit opponents’ contact quality against his heaters in 2025, as both had a sub-.300 xwOBA against. Petit also creates enough sink on his changeup to keep lefties in check, so his role isn’t at risk of being minimized to that of a righty specialist if he throws enough strikes (no guarantees) to make the Rockies bullpen next spring.

Longenhagen ranked Petit as a 40 FV player last March, 25th in Detroit’s system.

Petit ranks 26th on MLB.com’s Rockies prospect list as a 40 FV pitcher with a 60 grade on the slider:

Standing at 6-foot-8, Petit is a tremendous presence on the mound. He doesn’t get big extension out of that frame, instead using his height to create a steep downward plane leading to solid groundball rates. There is some velocity here, touching 98 mph while sitting 94-96, and he’s worked to generate a bit more heat. Petit’s 83-85 mph gyro slider is much better at generating swing-and-miss and chase low in the zone with strong depth, and the Rockies think it’s the kind of breaking ball that should play in Coors Field. He can tunnel his 86-89 mph changeup well enough off the fastball with just enough velocity separation for it to be effective.

Petit has shown the ability to get righties and lefties out at the upper levels, and he was able to get his walk rate back down in 2025 to 3.0 per nine after seeing it creep up in 2024 (4.1 BB/9). He’ll get his chance to stick with the Rockies, who see him as a potential bulk reliever.

Petit is almost certain to be a one and done PuRP, as he will either stick on Colorado’s roster long enough in 2026 to exhaust his rookie eligibility or he won’t and will be returned to the Tigers. He represents a good multi-inning mop-up relief a la Anthony Molina in his Rule 5 year in 2024, with the size and breaking ball to be better than that. I ranked him 23rd on my ballot at the bottom of my 40 FV tier due to the floor.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

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Yankees Birthday of the Day: Fred Heimach

The birthday series we’re running here at Pinstripe Alley is interesting for multiple reasons, primarily because we’re introduced to players who may not have as much exposure as the stars of today’s game or had their time in the majors but end up in the weeds of Major League Baseball history. With the Yankees being an old franchise relative to most of MLB, the latter is bound to happen to plenty of different players from the olden days of our great game. Fred Heimach is one of the names that might be lost to time, but he still made his impact in his short stint with the Bombers.

Frederick Amos Heimach
Born: January 27, 1901 (Camden, NJ)
Died: June 1, 1973 (Fort Myers, FL)
Yankees Tenure: 1928-29

Fred “Lefty” Heimach was born on this day in 1901 and worked his way up to the major-league ranks as a pitcher despite never playing high school baseball as a teenager. When the United States entered World War I, Heimach enlisted and trained to become a mechanic before being sent overseas to France, where he helped organize a baseball team for his unit in Romorantin in the spring of 1918. Tom Turner, who was then working as a quasi-scout for the Philadelphia Athletics and was the athletic officer for a team that was defeated by Heimach’s, said to him, according to Bill Nowlin from the Society of American Baseball Research, “When this war is over, and you still have two legs and two arms, see me without fail. You have a job with the Athletics waiting for you.”

And he did. Heimach returned to the United States, fresh off the war, at 19-years-old, and was signed by the Athletics. He was sent for some conditioning and made his MLB debut in a 13-3 loss to the Washington Senators on October 1, 1920.

However, despite the poor start and a 14.40 ERA to his name at the MLB level, he came back strong in his second season. At the Three-I League (Class B) level, he helped his squad, the Moline Plowboys, to a championship. He finished the year with a 24-8 record and led the league in wins and ERA with a 2.38 before making his second MLB start against the Chicago White Sox, where he pitched a complete game shutout, allowing only seven hits.

Heimach pitched 117 games more for the Athletics and started 64 of them before being moved to the Boston Red Sox in 1926. He finished with a 4.67 ERA in those games and a 5.65 ERA in 20 games with Boston. His next move, following an entire season in the minor leagues in 1927, was a pickup by the Yankees, who thought he could be a special player for them. He was acquired for $20,000 and a player to be named later, and in 13 games and nine starts, “Lefty” posted a 3.31 ERA in 68.0 innings pitched. He saw no action in the 1928 World Series against St. Louis but still walked away with a championship to his name.

Heimach was brought back for his 29-year-old season with the Yankees as well and had another decent season on the mound, finishing with a respectable 4.01 ERA and an 11-6 record. However, despite his two decent seasons in pinstripes, his contract was sold to the Toledo Mud Hens, and manager Bob Shawkey somewhat ominously told the New York World Telegram, “There are some things that this club will not elaborate.”

Heimach’s last MLB appearance came on August 30, 1933, for the Brooklyn Dodgers, before his retirement was forced by a back injury. He pitched four seasons for the Dodgers from 1930 to 1933, finishing with a 4.31 career ERA with the team. His final career ERA came out to 4.46, and he finished with a career record of 62-69.

After his MLB career ended, Heimach headed south and joined the Miami Beach Police Department, where he spent 20 years as an officer before retiring in 1956 and moving to Arizona before returning to Florida. Heimach passed away in Fort Myers, on June 1, 1973, at the age of 72, and is buried at the Fort Myers Memorial Gardens.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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Mariners News, 1/27/26: Harrison Bader, Hector Neris, and Bo Bichette

In Mariners news…

Around the league…

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Four Washington Nationals feature in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 rankings

The other day, MLB Pipeline dropped their new top 100 rankings and it featured four Nationals in the top 80. Out of all the public rankings I have seen, Pipeline is the highest on the Nats prospects. They have Eli Willits at 13th, Travis Sykora at 54th, Harry Ford at 71st and Jarlin Susana at 80th.

This is very exciting for Nats fans, who are very attached to prospects these days after all the losing that has come this decade. If these guys pan out, they can lead the next generation of winning Nats baseball. After all of the losing, Nats fans deserve it.

Let’s dive into the rankings and what they have to say about each player. Former first overall pick Eli Willits is the top ranked Nats prospect. Pipeline is higher on him than most other outlets, ranking him at 13th. Willits is the highest ranked player drafted in 2025, despite being 5th on their draft rankings. A strong pro debut combined with questions about Ethan Holliday’s hit tool allowed him to move past the more famous prospect.

Willits has three 60 grade tools according to Pipeline. His hitting, running and fielding all have 60 grades, meaning they are plus tools. Players with a 60 hit tool and 60 defense at shortstop do not come around very often, and that is why Willits was taken first overall. He showed both of those skills in his pro debut, where he hit .300 and flashed the leather at shortstop.

The biggest question mark about Willits is his power. Pipeline gave his power tool a 45 grade, which is slightly below average. Due to how great the rest of his game is, that is okay. Willits has the chance to be a 15 home run guy, which is more than good enough considering the rest of his profile. I have always liked the comparison of Geraldo Perdomo when discussing Willits.

One of Pipeline’s more interesting rankings is Travis Sykora. While Baseball America and Keith Law dropped him out of their top 100 list after his Tommy John Surgery, Pipeline still has him at 54th. Personally, I would probably have him somewhere in between, on the back end of a top 100.

Sykora was one of the most dominant minor league arms in the sport before going down with injury. In his pro career, Sykora has a 2.14 ERA and 208 strikeouts in 130.1 innings. He overwhelmed lower minors hitters with his three potentially plus pitches and strong feel for pitching.

Sykora will need to throw his fastball in the zone more often when he comes back, but outside of that, he does not have many weaknesses on the mound. He fires a mid to upper 90’s heater from his unusual delivery. Sykora also has a slider and a splitter that can be plus pitches. The splitter was particularly effective in 2025 according to Pipeline. 

Unfortunately, Sykora will miss most, if not all of this season due to the surgery. If he looks as good as new when he comes back, Travis Sykora has the chance to really surge up the rankings. He has top of the rotation upside, and I cannot wait to see him pitch again.

The next player on the list is the only Nats top 100 prospect who was acquired this offseason. That would be Harry Ford, who the Nats got in the Jose A. Ferrer trade. Ford is the closest to the big leagues of all these guys, having already made his debut.

Seattle developed Ford for a number of years, but had no room for the catcher due to Cal Raleigh. That made him expendable, and the catcher needy Nats took advantage. Ford, who ranks 71st on Pipeline’s list, has average hitting ability and power, but that is amplified due to his elite plate discipline.

Ford has a real chance to be a strong offensive catcher. He has 18-20 homer power and can be a .260ish hitter. That .260 average will come with a .350+ on base percentage. In his minor league career, Ford has a .405 career OBP in 1,693 at bats, despite only having a .266 average. That ability to get on base gives him a strong offensive floor. Ford is also a great runner for his position and has a chance to steal up to 15 bags a season.

The defensive side of the game is more of a question mark. Pipeline gives his glove a 45 grade, meaning he is a slightly below average defender behind the plate. With how important defense is behind the plate, this is not ideal, but he is certainly playable as a catcher. 

Pipeline notes that he is a solid thrower, but his framing is not very good, even if it has gotten better over the years. With the challenge system coming in, that weakness could be mitigated. Ford’s leadership has been praised, which is something you like to see from a catcher. He will never be confused for Yadier Molina, but Ford should be able to stick behind the plate. 

The last National on the top 100 list is Jarlin Susana, who ranks as the 80th best prospect. Like Sykora, Susana had season ending surgery, but his recovery from lat surgery should not take as long.

Susana has some of the most electric stuff in the minor leagues. His fastball sits at 100 MPH and can get up to the 103-104 range. He also has the rare ability to hold his triple digit velocity deep into games. However, some scouts think his slider is even better than his fastball. Pipeline gives both pitches a 70 grade, which is plus-plus stuff.

After struggling with injuries and inconsistency early in the season, Susana had a crazy run in the second half before his lat injury. Unfortunately, durability has been a problem for Susana in his career. He has had a few injury scares, which comes with the territory for pitchers with his velocity.

There are also some control issues, with Pipeline giving it a below average 40 grade. However, his stuff is so insane that he still has the chance to be a front of the rotation arm. If the injuries and control move him to a relief role, he could be one of the most dominant closers in baseball. 

As long as Susana stays healthy and is anywhere near the strike zone, he will be an impactful pitcher, either as a starter or a high leverage relief arm. Hopefully we can see him on the mound early in the 2026 season. His stuff is just so ridiculous.

It is nice to see Pipeline being higher on some of the Nats prospects. Having four guys in the top 80 is a good sign. There are also other players that could rise on to the list with good seasons. Paul Toboni traded for intriguing prospects like Gavin Fien, Luis Perales and Devin Fitz-Gerald this offseason. I see all of them as having top 100 upside.

This will be something to monitor as we head into the season. Right now the Nats have four top 100 guys. While Ford should graduate, there should be plenty of other Nats prospects waiting in the wings to take his spot on the top 100 list. MLB Pipeline is a great resource for fans, and I really appreciate their lists, especially when the Nats are well represented.

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Good Morning San Diego: Padres prospects have something to prove; Padres promotional schedule announced for 2026

It has not been a fun time to be a prospect in the San Diego Padres farm system. For most of the position players, places to play are getting harder to find with multiple MLB players signed to play those positions at the major league level for years to come. Position player prospects may not even bother unpacking because Padres president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller uses them to add other players to the MLB roster. For the prospects who do not get traded, Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball found they are left to make up one of the worst farm systems in baseball according to various prospect rankings. The best prospect among them at least on some lists, is catcher Ethan Salas who has seen his stock drop since missing all but 10 games of the 2025 season. The 2026 season is fast approaching with Spring Training just around the corner. Perhaps it will over an opportunity for some young players who might be overlooked or underrated to show their potential.

Padres News:

  • The Padres announced their promotional schedule for the 2026 season, which features scarves, bobbleheads, ponchos and more to entice fans to come out to Petco Park to watch their hometown team.
  • Jaff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribunecontinued his Padres roster review looking at reliever Jeremiah Estrada. The Chicago Cubs castoff has found his home in the San Diego bullpen and he has become and integral part of the best ‘pen in the game.

Baseball News:

  • Free agent outfielder Harrison Bader and the San Francisco Giants reportedly agreed to a two-year contract that will bring him to the NL West.
  • Framber Valdez remains the best remaining free agent pitcher and many believe he will end up with the Baltimore Orioles. Eugenio Suarez and Luis Arraez are two of the top position players left, but Suarez has not seen a ton of interest and Arraez has had essentially no interest at all. Time is running out for free agents to sign with teams if they don’t want to delay the starts to their seasons as Spring Training is just a few weeks away.
  • Joe Ryan has been discussed as a possible trade candidate for several teams this offseason. He and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a contract to avoid arbitration, which could keep him in Minnesota for 2026.
  • Japan named eight players to its World Baseball Classic roster and the top among those names were Shohei Ohtani and his Los Angeles Dodgers teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
  • Nolan Arenado, who was recently traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks from the St. Louis Cardinals, will play for Puerto Rico in the WBC.
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SnakeBytes 1/27: Some WBC Roster Surprises

Diamondbacks News

D-backs’ newest 3B Nolan Arenado joins Team Puerto Rico for WBC by Wendy Lopez [Burn City Sports]

The move marks a major shift from the 2023 tournament, when Arenado played for Team USA, as he now looks to represent his heritage after previously competing for his home country. The Diamondbacks’ third baseman has Puerto Rican heritage through his mom’s side and now has the opportunity to represent his roots on baseball’s biggest international stage.

Diamondbacks Heavy Lifting Done for the Offseason by Michael McDermott [D-backs Under Review]

With a little bit of hindsight, it was pretty obvious from the onset that the Diamondbacks were handicapped financially entering the offseason. Injuries to Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. limited what they could do. The quartet combined for $53.6 million of Arizona’s 209.2 million payroll for 2026 (Cots), or 25.6%.

With injuries completely decimating the pitching staff, which will linger into 2026, D-backs GM Mike Hazen had some tough decisions to make. He chose to address the rotation and third base this offseason, at the expense of the bullpen.

MLB Admits What D-backs Fans Already Know About Ketel Marte by Alex D’Agostino [SI]

There’s no denying Marte, from a statistical standpoint, holds the advantage over the rest of MLB. He led all qualified second basemen in OPS (.893) in 2025 — a full 80 points above Jazz Chisholm in second place. 

Despite missing a decent chunk of time with an injury, and finding himself in the middle of some mid-season drama, he also managed the third-most homers (28) and fourth-most doubles (also 28), while slashing an immense .283/.376/.517 and posting a 145 wRC+ (45% above league average) per FanGraphs.

Around the League

Astros Forbid Jose Altuve From World Baseball Classic by Justin Carlucci [Heavy]

The Houston Astros have made their position clear. Jose Altuve will not represent Venezuela in the 2026 World Baseball Classic, and the decision came from the organization, not the player. According to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Astros requested that their 36-year-old second baseman skip the tournament to focus on spring training preparation.​​

The club hasn’t officially confirmed the news, but Altuve’s comments from Saturday’s FanFest made the situation obvious. “I signed the paper that I’m willing to go play like I did the last two WBCs,” Altuve told reporters. “Always an honor to represent my country. I played in the last one and the one before, and I’m trying to do it in this one. I don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes, but it seems this year is not up to me. Hopefully everything clears up, and I’ll be able to go.”​

Zac Gallen’s keys to a bounce back in 2026 by David Adler [MLB]

Zac Gallen is a workhorse starting pitcher with two top-five Cy Young finishes in the past four years who’s still just 30 years old. Sounds like a top-tier free agent.

But instead, he’s a polarizing one because of his rocky 2025 season. Gallen still pitched 192 innings and recorded 175 strikeouts for the D-backs, but his ERA spiked to 4.83, one of the highest among qualified pitchers, and he just didn’t look the same as the ace-level Gallen of 2022-23.

The Most Baseball a Baseball Town Can Be by Amanda Vogt [FanGraphs]

This is Irmo, South Carolina, the most baseball a baseball town can be. 

Irmo is so baseball that last year it sent not one, not two, not three, but four teams in different divisions to the Little League World Series — baseball teams of up to 12-, 13- and 16-year-old boys, along with a girls softball team. Little League has seven divisions, each of which holds a national tournament of top teams every year, the World Series. Do the math: One community sent clubs to more than half the national competitions.

Irmo is so baseball that championship jerseys hang in local restaurants as relics of pride with signatures of the ball players, who are treated as local celebrities.

MLB’s top 5 breakout teams for 2026 by Bradford Doolittle [ESPN]

Last year, there were three teams that beat their baseline win figure by at least 10, all in the American League: the White Sox, the Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Breaking out means different things for different teams. For the White Sox, it meant being less terrible than their record-setting 2024 collapse. For the Athletics, it meant a return to respectability, laying the foundation for a possible playoff run in 2026. For the Blue Jays, it meant falling inches shy of a World Series championship.

Giants Sign Harrison Bader by Steve Adams [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Giants have a notable upgrade to their outfield defense in place, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $20.5MM contract with free agent outfielder Harrison Bader. The Vayner Sports client can earn an additional $500K via incentives, bringing the deal’s maximum value to $21MM.

Bader, 31, has been a free agent for three consecutive offseasons but now lands the multi-year deal that’s previously eluded him. He signed one-year deals with the Mets and Twins, respectively, over the past two winters. Bader turned in a career-best performance in Minnesota and was red hot for the Phillies down the stretch after joining them in a deadline swap, and the market has rewarded that strong 2025 performance.

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What will Spencer Strider produce in 2026?

Sigh, this is a depressing one of these to do. Everything about Spencer Strider was, in theory, so awesome, that it didn’t seem like a little thing like a year-long layoff due to elbow troubles was going to derail his career. Surely someone so diligent in being in tune with his body and mechanics could hit the ground running, right? Well, not exactly. After an uneven 2025, Strider’s outlook is uncertain, and pretty fraught.

Career-to-date, status

Drafted in the fourth round of the shortened 2020 MLB Draft, Strider pitched at five different levels (including MLB) in his first professional season. He started 2022 in the big league bullpen, but transitioned to the rotation at the end of May, and well, it seemed like the rest would be history. A hilariously dominant 2022 season could’ve earned him Rookie of the Year honors had his teammate, Michael Harris II, not taken that piece of hardware. (Strider actually had barely more fWAR than Harris, 4.9 to 4.7, though he was pitching in the bullpen while Harris was in the minors.) Strider then spent a full year in the rotation in 2023, and “hilariously dominant” still applied. His 5.5 fWAR that year was second only to Zack Wheeler’s 5.9. All in all, including his time in the bullpen, Strider put up 10.3 fWAR in 318 1/3 innings in 2022-2023, with a 79 ERA-, 59 FIP-, and 63 xFIP-. While perhaps not video game numbers, they were essentially dominant reliever numbers, but from a guy who was close to six innings a game as a starter.

Disaster struck fairly quickly after that, though. Strider looked like himself in his first start of 2024, but not so much in the second, and then missed the rest of the year with an elbow issue that let him avoid Tommy John Surgery, but not missing about a year of action anyway.

Even before his 2023 gave serious credence to the possibility of him being the best starter in the game, the Braves inked him to a $75 million, six-year extension in October 2022. It was, at the time, the highest average annual value for a player with between one and two years of service time. The extension gave Strider relatively low salaries through 2025, but bumps his pay up to $20 million for 2026 and $22 million for the two years thereafter, along with a $22 million club option for 2029 with a $5 million buyout. At the time, it was a move in line with the exuberance of the moment. In 2023, the only concern was that he might eventually get injured. In 2024, well, he got injured. What came after has basically become the antithesis of that exuberance.

Recent performance

2025 was a problem for the Braves, and with regard to Strider’s outlook even moreso than just the mess that was that calendar year for the organization. The main problem, as I’ll get into a bit below, wasn’t that Strider was rusty — it was that rather than improving, he more or less fell apart as the season went on. Maybe it’s not right to have expected rust removal or improvement with experience post-elbow procedure, but given that the proverbial ship seemingly unrighted itself after he had regained a level of decent performance, there are certainly a lot of concerns for Strider heading into 2026.

To be more specific, Strider struggled a fair bit in his first five starts back, though this was not surprising given the layoff and the fact that a hamstring injury actually forced him to take another monthlong break from active duty after his first start of the year. He then reeled off a seven-start stretch where no one would fault you for thinking that Strider was back: in 42 2/3 innings, he put together a 60 ERA-, 61 FIP-, and 66 xFIP-. Nor was this an artifact of facing weak teams, as five of those seven games came against teams that finished in the top ten in wRC+, including the top-finishing Yankees. (Even without the Rockies, the line goes to 70/74/76.) Unfortunately, and here’s the rub: he didn’t keep it going.

There was a two-homer game against the Giants, a poor-peripherals game against the Royals, and then another two-homer game against the Brewers. Whether you want to include those in the “Strider was fine/good” or “Strider was bad” column isn’t really the point, because after that, things just got awful. Strider’s final eight starts of the season featured eight homers, but leaving HR/FB concerns aside, he had a garbage-quality 124/133/125 line. I’m not going to use this projections post to talk about the specific issues he had (see his season review, among other things, for that), but the point is that Strider got worse and never really showed he could un-get worse after those dreadful seven weeks.

All in all, his 2025 involved 0.9 fWAR over 125 1/3 innings with a 105/111/102 line; the okay-ish xFIP could be offset by the fact that his xERA was much worse than his xFIP, assuming you give any weight to xERA as a measure of pitching effectiveness.

Forecasting

Same brief disclaimer: once upon a time I built a projection system to try to mirror/get at the workings of Steamer and ZiPS. I called it IWAG. You can figure out what that means, maybe. I’m bringing it back for this series of posts. Here’s Strider, for 2026.

This is probably the most fraught point estimate of this series. It makes Strider out to be an above-average starter with health issues. But… we know things are a little different. Namely, this is an average of his possible divergent outcomes, with some discounting of his availability given that he missed quite a lot of time in 2024-2025.

Steamer has Strider at around 3.4 WAR per 200 innings, with a point estimate of 161 innings and 2.7 WAR. ZiPS is at 3.2/200 and a point estimate of 2.2 WAR in about 138 innings. IWAG is more conservative on all fronts, but not really all that different (which makes sense because it was built to understand Steamer and ZiPS). So, no discrepancy, but…

Is Strider good or not? I don’t know. I’m not sure anyone knows. Maybe he’ll go back to pre-injury form. Maybe he’ll look like 2025. It’s possible he ends up somewhere in the middle, I guess, but we haven’t seen much middling performance from him at any point, so I’m not sure where that would come from. One of the two poles seems more likely at this point. And, there’s a huge competitive swing for the Braves depending on which of the two you get. I have a headache now. Who’s next on the list? Jurickson Profar? Well… that’s only somewhat less fraught. What a stretch of guys with variable performance we’ve been privy to.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

  • Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Spencer Strider produce in 2026? (If you ignore this and provide a partial fWAR, I will round it for you, and your scoring will not be based on 1 WAR around your point estimate, but 1 WAR around the rounded number.)
  • How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

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Signing Framber Valdez would create a battle for the Orioles’ last starting spot

Eight weeks ago, I broke down the possible paths the Orioles might go down to have a successful offseason. One of the possibilities I laid out was some combination of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez and a big bat like Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso. That possibility seems set to come to fruition, with reports that Baltimore is the frontrunner to sign the former Astro, Valdez.

Should the Orioles secure the 32-year-old lefty from the Dominican Republic, it would not only transform the top of the O’s rotation but also create an interesting competition for the No. 5 spot. Depending on how new manager Craig Albernaz wants to structure his rotation, you’d expect Valdez, Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers to fill in the top three spots in some order. Then, high-risk, high-reward acquisition Shane Baz will likely slide into the No. 4 spot. With four potential options to round out the rotation, filling that No. 5 spot will be one of the hardest decisions facing Alby and the new coaching staff.

Option 1: RHP Dean Kremer

2025 stats: 11-10, 4.19 ERA, 171.2 IP, 142 Ks, 1.21 WHIP

I’ve consistently thought of Kremer as a pitcher you’d be happy to have as your No. 5 starter. Too often in the past, the Orioles have been forced to have Kremer take on a more important role in the rotation. In 2023, he was the Game 3 starter in the Orioles’ playoff series against Texas. In 2024, he was third in total starts and innings pitched and probably would’ve taken the ball in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series had the O’s made it that far. Last year, Kremer was the Orioles’ most consistently available starter, leading the team in innings pitched and strikeouts while making 31 appearances.

Heading into the 2026 season, Kremer finally has a chance to fill the role he was destined for. Given the other three options’ struggles with injuries (and on-field performance) in 2025, Kremer would come into spring training with the inside track on landing the final spot in the rotation. He should be the most stretched out of all Orioles pitchers, as he starts his competitive season earlier than most, headlining Team Israel’s rotation in the 2026 World Baseball Classic.

And not only would the fifth-starter role better fit Kremer’s “consistent, but rarely spectacular” brand of baseball, but it also may help Kremer avoid the early-season struggles that have plagued him in the past. Due to some extra rest days in the first month of the season, the fifth starter often doesn’t get a full complement of starts. That’d suit Kremer just fine, who sports a 6.24 ERA in March/April and a 3.88 ERA across all other months.

Option 2: RHP Zach Eflin

2025 stats: 6-5, 5.93 ERA, 71.1 IP, 50 Ks, 1.42 WHIP

While Kremer represents the steady, dependable option for the Orioles’ fifth starter, Eflin is the higher upside option. After a nine-start cameo in 2024 that saw him pitch to a 2.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 55.1 innings, Eflin came into last season as the Orioles Opening Day starter and de facto ace.

The first nine outings of his 2025 season were similarly encouraging. Eflin pitched to a 4.08 ERA, which went down to 3.02 if you removed an eight-run blow-up against the Nationals. Eflin then crumbled as he tried to gut through the effects of the back injury that ultimately ended his season. Over his final five outings of last season, Eflin put up an 11.29 ERA while allowing 37 hits and eight home runs over 18.1 innings.

The Orioles may choose to be cautious with the 10-year MLB vet, as he looks to bounce back from the fourth major back injury of his career. If the O’s slow play his build-up in the spring, he may fall behind Kremer in the early-season pecking order. However, if Eflin is fully healthy when the team leaves Sarasota in two months, he may get the nod based on his contract. Eflin is set to make $10M in 2025, compared to $5.75M for Kremer.

Option 3: LHP Cade Povich

2025 stats: 3-8, 5.21 ERA, 112.1 IP, 118 Ks, 1.50 WHIP

Povich was in a similar position last year and ended up breaking spring training as the Orioles’ No. 5 starter. What happened after that was a bit of a trainwreck for the 25-year-old southpaw. In Povich’s first 13 starts of the season, the lefty they call Slim posted a 5.15 ERA, gave up a .286 average against, and overall, struggled to string together decent outings.

Povich missed six weeks in the middle of the season with a hip injury and wasn’t much better when he came off the IL. In nine starts down the stretch, his ERA grew to 5.29, his batting average against remained in the .280s and he continued to give up home runs at an alarming rate. In fact, Povich’s 1.4 HR/9 rate would have been one of the 10 worst in all of baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

The former Nebraska Cornhusker does have two factors in his favor: youth and strikeout upside. Povich is at least four years younger than any of the other pitchers he’s competing against, meaning Albernaz and the new staff may want to give him another opportunity to maximize his upside. The coaching staff may also want another pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. Outside of Bradish, Povich was the only starter last year who posted a K/9 greater than nine.

Option 4: RHP Tyler Wells

2025 stats: 2-1, 2.91 ERA, 21.2 IP, 18 Ks, 0.88 WHIP

Wells is the ultimate wild card, as the Orioles could choose to use him in rotation, the bullpen or a hybrid, Albert Suárez-type role. The towering righty from Oklahoma has only pitched 27 innings over the last two seasons due to a UCL injury that required surgery, though not a full reconstruction. The fact that he moved back into the rotation last year upon his return from injury was a bit surprising, but his results justified it.

In four starts at the end of last season, Wells had two quality starts, limited opponents to a .213 batting average and only issued two walks in 21.2 innings. Home runs were a problem for him—he allowed a home run in each of his starts—but overall, he looked like pre-All-Star break, 2023 Tyler Wells again. If that’s the type of pitcher he can be over 25+ starts, he jumps to the front of the line for the Orioles fifth starter spot.

However, Wells’ biggest problem has always been his durability. After throwing 104.2 innings in the first half of 2023, he faded after the All-Star break. The former Rule 5 draft pick hit a wall in the second half, ultimately being demoted to Double-A midseason before being brought back as a reliever. Wells has never thrown 120+ innings in a season, and asking him to be a full-time starter may simply not be the best use of the innings the Orioles can get out of him.