Category: Baseball

For the first time in nearly twenty years, the League Championship series is back at Tropicana Field.

Over the past two decades, the Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the best franchises in all of baseball. Since the start of the 2008 season, the Rays have the 3rd highest winning percentage in the game and have been to the playoffs 10 times. They have won two pennants, falling just short of winning the World Series both times.

There have been two Cy Youngs (Blake Snell and David Price), four Rookie of the Year winners (Randy Arozarena, Wil Myers, Jeremy Hellickson, and Evan Longoria), and numberous Silver Sluggers and Gold Glovers as well Managers of the Year (Joe Maddon and Kevin Cash both winning two).

Factually speaking, this is the team’s third time making it past the Division Series but the 2020 season muddles things as it was only 60 games and each postseason game past the Wild Card rounds were moved to a central locations to try and keep the players safe from COVID (well sort of safe, thanks Justin Turner). The Rays defeated the Houston Astros in seven games in San Diego to move onto the World Series and face the Los Angeles Dodgers in Texas.

So with all their successes, it’s crazy that the Rays will be just playing in their second ALCS at Tropicana Field.

Cleveland’s pitching staff was taxed during their five game series against the Chicago White Sox but the Guardians were able to win out in the end. It was a bittersweet situation for Cleveland during the final two games of the ALDS as they were able to start those games with their two best starting pitchers but that leaves them at a disadvantage with the bottom end of their rotation going against the Rays ace.

So on Monday night at Tropicana Field, instead of Gavin Williams or Parker Messick taking the mound, Cleveland will instead call upon 31-year old southpaw, Foster Griffin.

It’s been a whirlwind of a career for Griffin as he was originally a first round draft pick, selected at 28th overall by the Kansas City Royals way back in 2014 ranking as one of the top high school arms in the country. He and an up-and-down prospectdom with some years appearing as an ace and others as a neverwill. Eventually, the Royals gave Griffin a cameo in the big leagues as a reliever but ultimately he would only toss 6 innings for his drafting team before being traded to the Blue Jays ahead of the 2022 deadline; Griffin would only throw two innings for Toronto and was released in November.

Following his release, Griffin ventured overseas and pitched for the Yomiuri Giants from 2023 through 2025 and performed quite well, regaining his status as a starting pitcher. Over those three seasons, Griffin compiled a 2.57 ERA spread across 315.2 IP.

The Washington Nationals signed Griffin to a one year, $5.5M deal ahead of the 2026 campaign and the changes Griffin made to achieve success in Japan easily transferred state side as he excelled with Washington. Over the first several months of the season, Griffin compiled a 3.06 ERA | 4.10 FUP with a 22.1 K% & 5.7 BB% over 129.1 IP. In need of pitching for their playoff aspirations, that Guardians acquired Grffin from the Nationals at the trade deadline.

The results for Griffin have been inconsistent since landing in Cleveland. There are a couple of outings that heavily skew his 5.19 ERA and his 3.54 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky. Griffin made 9 regular season starts for Cleveland and allowed 3 runs or less in seven of them but also only compelted six innings, three times.

Going to the mound for the Rays in game one will be Drew Rasmussen.

The 31-year old hurler was nearly perfect the last time he toed the rubber for the Rays back on Saturday, October 3rd, during the first game of the ALDS against the Yankees. Rasmussen delivered eight innings of dominance against New York, striking out ten hitters and walking just two; he was just four outs away from a no-hitter when Austin Wells drilled a ball into the right field corner. This looked like a possible turning point in a 1-0 game, but a questionable baserunning decision and elite Rays defense resulted in Wells being thrown at third to record the final out of Rasmussen’s brilliant 8 inning outing.

According to Baseball-Reference’s GameScore (developed by Bill James), this start was the best of Rasmussen’s career as he registered an 88 GameScore. Rasmussen’s previous high (85) was an outing from earlier this season in which he struck out 13, allowing just two hits over 7 scoreless innings against Boston. It was easily the best postseason performance from a Rays starting pitcher, surpassing Matt Moore’s (77) stellar postseason debut in 2011 and Matt Garza’s (75) 2008 ALCS game 7 performance.

The Tampa Bay Rays managed to sweep the New York Yankees in the ALDS despite receiving a less than stellar performance from their offense. As a whole, the offense hit .208/.255/.344 with a .599 OPS which is the second lowest all-time for a team that swept their opponent in the LDS. However, they did have to face one of the toughest pitching staffs in all of baseball so that needs to be taken into consideration as the Yankees led the league in ERA.

The game begins tonight at 8pm with Rays Hall of Famer Carl Crawford tossing out the ceremonial first pitch.

The Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves down 1-0 in the NLCS to the Milwaukee Brewers, unable to muster more than one run. As is so often the case, Monday afternoon they will send Yoshinobu Yamamoto to try to even the series.

The Dodgers are 9-1 in his postseason starts and are undefeated in his six road playoff starts. The last time that Yamamoto faced the Brewers in the NLCS, just last season, he had his first career complete game in a 5-1 victory.

With Yamamoto being a right handed pitcher, expect Christian Yelich to be back in the Brewers lineup.

The Brewers will counter with rookie Logan Henderson, who was 11-3 with a 2.47 era during the regular season, and has only pitched 5.0 innings this postseason, with four strikeouts allowing one run on two hits against the San Diego Padres. He was pulled after five innings at only 71 pitches.

Henderson out-dueled Tarik Skubal in August at Dodger Stadium, going a career high seven innings in a victory that lead to the Brewers having the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Dodgers got just one against him in that game, a Max Muncy homer in the fourth inning. The Dodgers also faced him in Milwaukee, and did not get any runs. Henderson has 13 K’s in 12 innings against the Dodgers this season.

The Dodgers haven’t had much of an issue getting batters on base, it’s the getting those runners across the plate that continues to plague this team. Only Andy Pages has come through with a key hit that wasn’t a home run. The Dodgers have the pitching, but they need the offense to step up if they want to take this series from the Brewers.

NLCS Game 2 info

• Teams: No. 2 seed Dodgers at No. 1 seed Brewers
• Series: Brewers lead 1-0
• Ballpark: American Family Field, Milwaukee
• Start time: 2:03 p.m. PT
• TV: Fox (Joe Davis, John Smoltz, Ken Rosenthal, Tom Verducci)
• National radio: ESPN Radio (Jon Sciambi, Doug Glanville)
• Local English radio: AM 570 (Stephen Nelson, Rick Monday)
• Local Spanish radio: KTNQ 1020 AM (José Mota, Luis Cruz)

It’s Monday and that means it’s time for another update from the Boys of Autumn on the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League.

In case you’ve forgotten what the AFL is all about, check out last week’s introduction. This year, the Mesa Solar Sox are a team consisting of players from the minor league systems of the Cubs, Athletics, Angels, Blue Jays and Red Sox.

We have a special event later today as Kate Preusser of our sister Mariners site Lookout Landing was down in Arizona and she managed to snag an interview with Cubs outfielder Kade Snell as a favor to us. That interview will run later this afternoon.

The Solar Sox went 1-3-1 this past week, with one tie on Monday. That makes their overall record for the season at 2-4-1 so far. The home team is listed last in these links.

Monday, October 5: Scottsdale Scorpions 6, SOLAR SOX 6 in 10 innings.

Tuesday, October 6: Glendale Desert Dogs 4, SOLAR SOX 3 in 10 innings.

Thursday, October 8: SOLAR SOX 3, Salt River Rafters 4.

Friday, October 9: SOLAR SOX 10, Scorpions 11.

Saturday, October 10: Peoria Javelinas 3, SOLAR SOX 7.

So despite going 1 and 3 (and one!) for the week, all three losses were by one run and the Solar Sox outscored their opponents for the week, 29 to 28.

Here’s how the eight Cubs prospects on the Solar Sox did.

Infielder Juan Cabada: At 18, Cabada is the second-youngest player in the AFL this year and as such, it should not come as a surprise if he struggles. Cabada played in four games this week, although on Saturday, he only pinch-ran and went in to third base as a defensive replacement. He did not have a plate appearance in Saturday’s game.

But Cabada played second base on Monday and Tuesday and third base on Friday. He went 1 for 12 with a walk and a stolen base. Cabada was also hit by a pitch. He scored one run and had one run batted in.

On the AFL season, Cabada is hitting .133 with a .278 on-base percentage. He’s scored twice.

Outfielder Harrison Feinberg: Feinberg made his AFL and professional debut on Monday and he went 1 for 4 in that game. He also played on Saturday and Sunday and finished the week going 3 for 9 with three walks and a stolen base. Feinberg scored two runs and had one run batted in. He played left field in all three games.

Outfielder Kade Snell: Snell was the Solar Sox starting right fielder on Monday, Thursday and Friday, but he had a bit of a rough week, going 1 for 10 with a double. He did walk four times, which mitigates the batting average somewhat. He scored one run this past week.

For the young season, Snell is hitting .211/.348/.263 with the one double. He scored twice and drove in one run.

Right-hander Juan Cabral: Cabral just faced two batters this week, relieving his fellow Cub Anhuar Garcia in the fifth inning of Friday’s game with no one on and two outs. Cabral walked the first batter he faced and then got a grounder to first to end the inning.

Cabral has not allowed a run over 1.1 innings and two appearances so far. He has walked two and struck out one.

Right-hander Anhuar Garcia. As noted above, Garcia pitched on Friday, entering the game with one out and one on in the second inning. Garcia pitched 3.1 innings and allowed three runs, two in the third inning and one in the fourth. However, because of an error in the third and a passed ball in the fourth, none of the three runs were earned. Garcia allowed three hits and one walk while striking out two.

Garcia now has thrown five innings over two relief appearances and has an ERA of 7.20. Garcia has walked four and has struck out two.

Right-hander Yohendris Gonzalez: Friday was apparently the Cubs day to pitch as Gonzalez made his only appearance on Friday as well. Gonzalez entered the game in the eighth inning with the Solar Sox leading 6-5.

But Gonzalez had a rough outing. He walked the first two batters he faced but then bounced back to strike out the next two. But then Gonzalez allowed an RBI single to former Cubs farmhand Zyhir Hope to tie the game and then a three-run home run to Giants prospect Dakota Johnson. He left the game right after that.

So the final line on Gonzalez was four runs on two hits and two walks over two-thirds of an inning. Gonzalez struck out two.

Right-hander Dominick Reid: Reid is quickly becoming the ace of the Solar Sox. He started Saturday’s game and got the win after allowing one run on four hits over four innings. Reid’s command of the strike zone wasn’t quite as impressive as in his first game as he walked three and only struck out two on Satyrday.

Over two starts, Reid is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA over eight innings. He’s struck out nine batters and has walked four.

Right-hander Luis Rujano: Rujano was the only Cubs prospect to pitch twice this week, giving the Solar Sox 1.2 innings on Monday and one inning on Saturday. Monday’s appearance was excellent—no runs on one hit over 1.2 innings while striking out three and walking just one.

Friday’s was less excellent but not terrible as Rujano allowed one run on one hit and one walk over one inning. He did not strike anyone out in that game.

Those were Rujano’s first two appearances in the AFL, which gives him an ERA of 3.38 over 2.2 innings.

Why is it so hard to find good outfield help these days?

Since 2012, the Phillies have struggled mightily to find quality baseball players to man that vast expanse of green. There have been 83 players who played at least 30% of their games in the Phils’ outfield since the 102-win, 2011 season. It’s a fascinating list.

While he’s no longer primarily an outfielder, Bryce Harper unsurprisingly leads the pack with 29.2 WAR and a 143 OPS+, and Kyle Schwarber is No. 2 at 13.4 WAR. Odubel Herrera, despite not playing for the Phillies since being released during the 2022 season, is still at No. 3, with 13.3 WAR. Brandon Marsh is No. 4, at 9.2 WAR and Ben Revere, their starting center fielder from 2013-15, is No. 5, at 4.9.

That’s right. Ben Revere. The 5th-best Phillies outfielder of the last 15 years. Soak it in.

Here are some other highlights from the list:

• Johan Rojas (3.4), Marlon Byrd (3.3), Andrew McCutchen (2.8), Aaron Altherr (2.2) and Juan Pierre (2.1) are the only other outfielders to amass more than 2.0 WAR since 2012. Byrd and Pierre compiled theirs in just one season.
• Derek Hill, a bench outfielder this year, was tied with former first round bust Adam Haseley for 12th with 1.4 WAR.
• Daniel Nava (1.2), who played 80 games as a part-timer with the 2017 Phils, was worth more than Nick Castellanos (1.1).
• Just 20 of the 83 players listed was worth at least 1.0 WAR.
• Remember Bradley Zimmer? He played nine games for the ‘22 NL champs and put up 0.3 WAR, tied with Pedro Florimon, Peter Bourjos and David Dahl for 30th.
• Darin Ruf is 9th on this list in HRs (35), but with a -0.6 WAR.
• Corey Dickerson has the 2nd-highest OPS (.886) among outfielders with at least 100 PAs. The player with the lowest is Moniak (.386). Yep, that’s lower than Michael Martinez (.432) and Tony Gwynn Jr. (.455)
• Odubel Herrera is 2nd in hits (791), Domonic Brown is 7th (333), Scott Kingery is 9th (239).
• Nick Williams is the worst outfielder over the last 15 years in terms of WAR (-1.5). Tyler Goeddel (-1.3) and Cody Asche (-1.0), are the others with at least -1.0 WAR.
• These 8 players played less than 10 games in the outfield: Oscar Mercado (1), Steve Susdorf (3), Jordan Danks (4), Steward Berroa (6), Jorge Bonifacio (7), Simon Muzziotti (9), Jason Pridie (9), Zimmer (9).
• Remember these guys? Kyle Garlick, Casper Wells, Jose Pirela, Ezequiel Carrera, Brian Bogusevic, Dylan Cozens, Darnell Sweeney, Cameron Perkins, Matt Joyce, Ty kelly, Jimmy Paredes, Tony Gwynn Jr., Phil Gosselin.

The situation isn’t getting any better.

The minor leagues provide little hope of internal improvements. The Phillies tried to promote Felix Reyes and Gabriel Rincones this season and, to their credit, both made a pretty fun initial splash.

Unfortunately, neither proved they could handle big league pitching and were shuttled to Lehigh Valley not long after their arrival. They’re not in the plans for 2027.

The Phillies received just 1.1 fWAR from their outfielders last year. Only two teams got less production from that position: the Rockies (0.7) and Reds (0.4). Harper’s 1.1 fWAR while playing outfield saved them, otherwise Hill’s 0.7 would have led all Phillies outfielders last year. Their .686 OPS ranked 5th-worst and, again, that was only aided by Harper’s inclusion (.867) over the final two months.

Of all the areas on the field, this is the area that needs the most improvement but also has the greatest opportunity to see change. That being said, Dave Dombrowski needs to make some tough calls over the next few weeks.

What do they do with Brandon Marsh?

After starting in right field for the NL All Stars, Marsh’s end-of-year numbers ended up being the worst of his career (.260/.304/.408, 0.3 fWAR). His second half struggles have been well-chronicled and he’s due to see a raise in arbitration this year to around $8.3 million, which is a hefty price tag for a player 28-year-old coming off his worst season.

The Phillies have been trying to make a platoon with Marsh work for more than four years now. It’s not working. Time to shake things up.

Is Justin Crawford strictly a platoon player? And is he a long-term plan in center?

Crawford’s rookie season was… fine. He was not a disaster defensively in center field, but his -8 Defensive Runs Saved ranked 16th out of 17 qualified players at that position, and his -2 Outs Above Average was 14th. His 82 wRC+ ranked 37th out of 54 players with at least 100 plate appearances as a center fielder, but his one great attribute (that isn’t likely repeatable) was his ability to hit with runners in scoring position (35-for-100, .350 AVG).

He will never be a productive enough offensive player to shift to a corner spot, unless the Phillies were somehow to acquire an offense-first center fielder. Which means, you have to find major contributors in the corners and platoon Crawford in center, hoping his defense improves.

Bottom line, Crawford is not going to be an impact player, even if he hits his ceiling. He’s Ben Revere. Maybe.

Do they keep Bryan de la Cruz and/or Derek Hill?

If so, what are their rolls? Both played better than expected when called upon last year. De la Cruz actually had better numbers against right-handers (.333/.378/.513, .891 OPS) than he did lefties (.222/.317/.306, .623 OPS). Hill was better against southpaws (.781 OPS) compared to righties (.647), and would make for a decent pairing with Justin Crawford in center next year as a platoon-mate. Hill’s defense is well above average, as we saw on numerous occasions last season. But both could be solid bench contributors.

Are there answers in free agency?

Surprisingly, there are a couple. Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki checks a lot of the boxes for a corner outfielder. He was worth 5.1 WAR in 143 games his season, with 26 HRs, 31 doubles, 86 RBIs and an .841 OPS. He’s a very disciplined hitter who routinely has one of the lowest chase rates in the Majors. He’ll be 32 next season.

Seattle’s Randy Arozarena had an even better year, in a more difficult park in which to hit. He led the AL in runs scored (113) and piled up 5.7 WAR for the Mariners, putting up an .865 OPS and 148 OPS+, the best season of his career. He will also be 32 in 2027. Both are right-handed hitters, something this Phillies lineup desperately needs.

What about Trea Turner?

The most likely landing spot for the veteran shortstop is a shift to second base, which would push Bryson Stott back to shortstop or third base. However, Turner has played center field in the Majors before (10 years ago).

If he turned into a good defensive center fielder, his .675 OPS would be a bit easier to swallow, although it would still fall short of what one would come to expect from a corner outfielder.

That being said, Turner is going to have to play somewhere in 2027, and it’s not going to be shortstop. If the Phillies decide to put him in the outfield, it’s likely you’ll see Marsh traded, Crawford/Hill sharing center, and one of Arozarena/Suzuki in the other corner. If they do put Turner in center, Crawford probably has to be moved. He’s not productive enough to be the strong side of a corner outfield platoon.

Are there any possible solutions in the minors?

Not for 2027. After Aidan Miller, Francisco Renteria, the team’s top international free agent signing this year, is the team’s top position prospect. He’s already a top 100 prospect at just 17 years old, but he’s still at least a couple years away from playing in the Majors. Like, 2029 or 2030. Dante Nori burst onto the scene during last year’s World Baseball Classic for Team Italy, but it turned out to be nothing more than an amusement. Nori dealt with injuries for most of the year, and didn’t play all that well when he was on the field.

Caden Bogenpohl is a 21-year-old outfielder drafted out of Missouri State and put up a .742 OPS in 20 games for Clearwater this year. Griffin Burkholder is a 20-year-old prospect who played for Clearwater and Jersey Shore last year and had a .674 OPS in 87 games. Again, both players, if they ever progress, are a couple years away.

So, no. There are no answers coming from the current prospect pool for 2027, and probably not ‘28 either.

Lots for Dombrowski to work on ahead of the work stoppage on December 1!

Today marks Garth Iorg’s 72 birthday. He played for the Toronto Blue Jays from 1978 to 1987.

Born in Arcata, California, Iorg was selected by the Yankees in the eighth round of the 1982 amateur draft, but joined the Blue Jays in the 1976 expansion draft. Over nine seasons with Toronto, he batted .258/.282/.347, hit 20 home runs, and appeared in 931 games.

Iorg wasn’t a standout player. He joined the Jays as a second baseman and hit accordingly, showing little power, few walks, and limited speed (23 career stolen bases).

Iorg is best remembered as the right-handed half of the “Mullinorg” platoon at third base, paired with Rance Mulliniks, generally considered the stronger player. Iorg’s only standout season came in 1985, when he hit .313/.358/.469 with 7 home runs in 288 at-bats—coinciding with Toronto’s first playoff appearance. The Jays lost to the Royals in a seven-game ALCS, where Iorg struggled, batting just .133/.188/.133 in 15 at-bats. Aside from that year, he never truly excelled, even when facing primarily left-handed pitchers.

I recall him as a solid defensive player, though it may be that his lack of offensive production led me to assume he was more reliable with the glove.

The Jays often used platoon systems at third base, catcher, and designated hitter. In recent years, however, the increased number of pitchers on rosters has made platooning more difficult for teams.

Iorg debuted for the Jays in 1978, appearing in 19 games, mostly at second base. The team struggled that year, finishing 59-102, and Iorg hit just .163/.218/.163. He spent all of 1979 in the minors. In 1980, he returned as a utility player, appearing in 80 games at a variety of positions—2B, 3B, LF, 1B, and SS—and hit .248/.286/.329.

During the 1981 strike season, Iorg played 46 games at second base filling in for the injured Damaso Garcia, as well as a few games at third, but hit just .242/.269/.293. With Bobby Cox arriving in 1982, the Mullinorg platoon began. That year, Iorg played 100 games at third base and 30 at second, posting his best numbers to date: .285/.307/.365. The Jays also improved, finishing 78-84 as some future stars emerged.

In 1983, the Jays achieved their first winning season at 89-73, finishing fourth in the AL East. Iorg hit a hollow .275, with a .298 on-base percentage and a .376 slugging. The 1984 Jays finished second in the division, 15 games behind the World Series champion Tigers. That year, Iorg struggled at the plate, batting just .227/.244/.304. Rance Mulliniks arguably deserved the full-time third base job.

As previously noted, Iorg’s 1985 season stood out as his best.

In 1986, the Jays slipped to the middle of the AL East standings, and Iorg’s performance declined to .260/.303/.352. That year, Kelly Gruber was called up and began taking over at third base, while manager Jimmy Williams used Iorg more often at second as Damaso Garcia’s tenure waned.

In 1987, Iorg became the team’s primary second baseman but struggled offensively, hitting just .210/.262/.284. The season ended in disappointment, as Toronto was swept by Detroit in the final series, losing seven straight games and surrendering first place. Iorg made the final out of the deciding game, with the tying and winning runs on base.

That at-bat marked Iorg’s last appearance for the Jays. He became a free agent afterward but drew no interest from other major-league teams, ending his playing career with Toronto.

Following his playing days, Iorg managed at every minor league level in the Blue Jays organization. He also worked as an agent with Sosnick Cobb Sports Agency, representing many young players, and served as a roving instructor for the Milwaukee Brewers. Iorg is the brother of former major leaguer Dane Iorg and is a father of eight children.

Garth is also remembered for his unusual batting stance—standing on the toes of his front foot and leaning back toward the catcher as the pitch was delivered. As Rance Mulliniks succinctly put it: “It’s unique.”

Happy birthday, Garth. Wishing you a great day.

Nolan Reimold is celebrating his 43rd birthday today.

Reimold played 22 games for the Blue Jays in 2014 after being claimed off waivers from the Orioles, as the team hoped he would hit well against left-handed pitching. He posted a .212/.283/.404 line with 2 home runs before being lost on waivers to the Diamondbacks at the end of August.

Over eight major league seasons—seven with the Orioles—Reimold hit .246/.323/.422 with 56 home runs in 480 games.

Happy birthday, Nolan.

Tanyon Sturtze is turning 56 today.

A right-handed pitcher, Sturtze signed with the Blue Jays as a free agent before the 2003 season. He appeared in 40 games (8 starts), posting a 7-6 record and a 5.94 ERA. In 89.1 innings, he allowed 107 hits, 14 home runs, 43 walks, and struck out 54 batters.

Sturtze’s MLB career spanned parts of 12 seasons. He debuted with the Cubs, pitching 13 innings over 1995-1996, then had brief stints with the Rangers and White Sox, appearing in just one game for Chicago in 1999. The Rays acquired him midway through the 2000 season.

He had his best run with the Rays, spending three seasons there and compiling a 19-30 record with a 4.48 ERA in 91 games (65 starts).

Sturtze later spent three seasons in the Yankees’ bullpen, posting a 5.26 ERA in 110 games. He finished his career pitching 2.1 innings for the Dodgers in 2008.

Across 272 games (84 starts) for seven teams, Sturtze recorded a 5.19 ERA and a 40-44 record. I don’t recall much else about his career.

Happy birthday, Tanyon.

The Atlanta Braves may have spent another season navigating a multitude of pitching injuries, but it was ultimately the lineup that let them down in October.

Bounced from the postseason after falling in four games to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series, the Braves will attempt to solve the individual and collective offensive issues that spelled the end of their season.

At the center of those struggles was All-Star third baseman Austin Riley, who experienced the most challenging season of his eight-year career as he saw his production drop for the third consecutive season. With his power down and his strikeouts climbing to an alarming high, Riley heads into a pivotal offseason.

How exactly did the club’s highest-paid player and a key member of their 2021 World Series championship team become one of the Braves’ biggest offensive liabilities? And how did such extreme regression set in during what should be the prime years of his career?

More importantly, how can he reverse these troubling trends and get his career back on track? 

Both Riley and the Braves will be searching for the answers this winter.

“First and foremost, I’ve got to be better,” Riley said following Atlanta’s Game 4 loss to the Dodgers in the NLDS. “I was terrible all year. I had some stretches where I showed life, but this is a game of consistency, and I wasn’t that this year.”

Injuries were at least partly to blame the previous two years, but Riley’s 2026 campaign was a complete struggle across 159 games. The trademark power that made him one of the most prolific third basemen in the game was simply not there on a regular basis. Even more concerning was the amount of swing-and-miss. Riley set a franchise record by striking out 201 times in 630 plate appearances.

His career-worst year leaves the team and the third baseman searching for answers. Riley somehow went from one of baseball’s most prolific sluggers to one of the least productive everyday players in the game in a span of three seasons.

From 2021 through 2023, Riley produced a 5.5 fWAR annually while averaging 73 extra-base hits, 36 homers, 99 RBIs, and an .878 OPS. He was a two-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and produced three consecutive Top 10 MVP finishes. His 16.1 fWAR during that three-year run was fifth-best in the NL behind Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts and Juan Soto.

Riley was also one of the game’s premier power hitters during that stretch. He was one of only three NL players with 100+ homers – Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber were the other two. Riley was also the only player in the NL to amass more than 100 homers and 100 doubles while ranking fourth in the NL with 297 RBIs during that three-year span.

All of those accolades and accomplishments make what happened over the past three seasons even more baffling. 

From 2024 through 2026, Riley averaged 1.7 fWAR per season while totaling 18 home runs, 61 RBIs, and posting a composite .718 OPS over the past three seasons, with 2026 marking the sixth consecutive year his OPS has fallen – from .898 in 2021 to just .654 this year.

Riley’s 31.9% strikeout rate was the worst in the NL and the third worst in MLB. He was also one of just 20 qualified hitters in baseball with a sub-.300 on-base percentage. Perhaps more alarming was the .365 slugging percentage which was the seventh lowest in the NL, contributing to that aforementioned .654 OPS. That ranked fourth worst among the 68 qualified NL hitters.

How it happened may be irrelevant at this point, but ways to fix it are what Riley and the Braves will explore this offseason.

“I’ve had some thoughts, because I know the capability I have and the player I can be,” Riley said. “There’s obviously got to be some changes with my swing and what that looks like. I’m not sure yet, but we’ll definitely dive into it and get it figured out… I’ve got to do some serious recon of how to get this thing back to where I know I’m capable of. From a working standpoint, I’ve got a long and hard offseason coming for me.”

Fortunately for Riley, there are at least some tangibles he can work with.

A look at Statcast illustrates a puzzling combination of rates and outcomes. Riley’s average exit velocity (91.3 mph), barrel rate (12.4%), and hard-hit rate (44.3%) were all strong while his bat speed (75.8 mph) remained elite, ranking in the 91st percentile.

The rest of his profile, however, was troubling to say the least. Riley was near the bottom of Major League Baseball in squared-up percentage (18.9%) and strikeout rate (31.9%) while his chase percentage (32.3%) was in the bottom third as well.

All of that points to one undeniable fact: Riley failed to make the kind of consistent hard contact that previously defined his game despite still possessing the requisite skillset to do so. The mechanics and timing of his swing as well as pitch selection all worked against Riley this season.

When the results are not there over a long enough period, a hitter’s natural response — whether consciously or subconsciously — is to start pressing at the plate and further compound the issues.

Even in the depth of his struggles, Riley remained outwardly optimistic. His teammates and manager likewise maintained their belief that he would eventually find his way through the slump through hard work and dedication.

“Look, I’ve seen him really good for a long time, and I see the work behind the scenes,” Braves manager Walt Weiss said. “I know the person. You bet on the person. Obviously, (he’s) a very talented guy, but you couldn’t tell this year if he was the leading MVP candidate in the National League or if he was struggling. I mean that. He’s the same guy every day.”

Riley tinkered throughout the year to make adjustments to his stance and swing. He went back to hitting notes, prompts, and routines he recorded during his three-year run of success from 2021-2023 to see if there was anything he’d missed or could reincorporate into his regimen.

When that didn’t work, Weiss shared some advice with Riley: the answers may have to come from a different source because he’s older, his body has been through several key injuries, and change is a natural part of the game. In essence, rather than reflecting on past success, Riley should focus on tangible and incremental adjustments in the present in order to find answers at the plate.

The injuries certainly played a part in Riley’s declining numbers. He entered 2026 coming off two years marred by substantial health issues that curtailed his production and ultimately ended each season early.

In 2024, Riley suffered a fractured right hand when he was struck by a 97-mph fastball from Los Angeles Angels reliever Jack Kochanowicz in August. He missed the final 38 games of the season and finished with a .256 average, 19 homers, 56 RBIs and a .783 OPS. After three straight seasons of 5.0 fWAR or better production, Riley finished the 2024 campaign with a 2.5 fWAR.

Riley’s power was slow to return in 2025. He batted .287 over the first 47 games with eight home runs and 28 RBIs. That’s a 162-game pace for 28 homers and 97 RBIs – totals that would represent a dip from his three-year prime of 2021-2023 but certainly acceptable production.

What lay ahead was a downturn that Riley is still trying to fight his way out of.

Over his final 55 games in 2025, Riley hit just .235 with eight homers and 26 RBIs while turning in an OPS of .693 as he battled a lower abdominal issue throughout the summer. He eventually underwent season-ending surgery in August to repair a double sports hernia.

With that injury addressed, the Braves were hopeful Riley would have a chance at a normal offseason and a bounce back season. It simply did not play out that way.

“There were flashes at times, but he’d be the first one to tell you that he did not have a good year,” Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos said. “He worked hard. We’ve definitely done everything we can on our end, and we’re going to continue to work at it.”

The work will start with Riley, who refused to deflect any of the blame or criticism for his season. He spoke highly of Atlanta hitting coach Tim Hyers and the work they put in throughout the season, even if the results never came as consistently as they’d hoped.

Once he gets a chance to recharge his batteries, Riley expects to get right back to work searching for fixes and changes that can get his swing back where he wants it to be.

“It’s a long season (and) you’ve got to let your body recover,” Riley said. “But at the same time, I think (the winter is) a really good time for me to sit down and really dive into what I need to do to get back to the production that I know I can (provide). I have some ideas on what I want to do, but there’s definitely going to be some marinating on just how I get back to that consistency showing up every day.”

Heading into his age-30 season, the Braves still believe in Riley’s ability and remain committed to helping him figure things out. Of course, Atlanta has a considerable vested interest in his turnaround. Riley has six years and $132 million remaining on the club-record 10-year, $212 million extension he signed in 2023.

With their third baseman at a crossroads, the Braves are hoping Riley can find a way to rediscover his stroke and contribute to a club that needs all of its star hitters pulling the rope in order to enjoy the kind of postseason success they tasted in 2021.

“He’s been one of the best third basemen in the game from an offensive standpoint,” Anthopoulos said. “He’s still a great defender and a great teammate. It was nice to get the health part put aside after back-to-back years of being hurt. From an offensive standpoint, he’s still a young player and is capable of so much more. He’s shown that, and we’re going to continue to work at it.”

What is there to say about the Royals’ 23-year-old slugger?

First, let’s let him do the talking.

You can take your pick of which of those videos you find the most impressive. If I could choose between them, I would have included just one, but all three are a lot of fun.

Cullen Jekel wrote Jac’s end-of-the-season review last year. I don’t agree with everything he wrote at the time, but the general sentiment was fair. Jac was bad in his first year in the big leagues. Maybe the Royals promoted him too early. I’d argue that they did not. He had destroyed multiple levels of the minors, and by the time they promoted him, it had become clear to me that AAA pitching simply wasn’t going to be able to challenge him enough to make him grow. He was tortured* by big league pitching, yes, but that seemed a necessary step on his journey. That all feels justified now, as Jac is tied for the 24th-best wRC+ in MLB and was 18th-best by OPS+.

*And I do mean tortured. He was so obviously distraught after every out that I was not alone in clamoring for the Royals to demote him to Omaha before the end of the season and help him regain his confidence.

All that praise aside, there are two different lenses with which we can view Jac’s 2026 season.

The first is the pessimist’s lens. Jac struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances and had the ninth-worst chase rate in all of baseball. He also walked only 6% of the time, a number that can only look good when compared to someone who prefers to use a Segway. He also finished the season with only 553 plate appearances. Parts of that was because he was platooned and batted low in the order early in the season, but another part of it where the series of small injuries he endured throughout the season. At no point did he ever play more than 24 games in a row. At no point did he start more than 23 in a row. In the end, he totalled 143 games. It’s not like it was a lost season, but you’d like to see the best bat in your lineup 150 games at least. He was also a liability on defense, whether in right field or at first, and despite his seven stolen bases, he didn’t add much value with his legs.

The second is the optimist’s lens. From June 1 on, he had the 16th-best ISO in baseball. He was tied for the 33rd-most home runs in baseball and the 35th-best fWAR. He won AL Player of the Month in August because he slashed .411/.429/.684/1.113, leading all of MLB in every category there except OBP because he hilariously only walked 2% of the time. But the closest to him in SLG among those with higher OBPs was Bryce Harper, more than 100 points behind with a measly .573. Who needs walks when you can hit over .400 with that kind of power?

And the best part is that you don’t even need to use arbitrary endpoints to highlight how good he was. Even taking the entire season into account, he finished with the 32nd-best ISO and 12th-best batting average in MLB. He had the 12th-best wRC+ among all outfielders – a number that only improves as you remove players like Bryce Harper and Chase DeLauter, who spent more time at other positions than the outfield.

Have you all seen Baseball Savant’s player comparison tool? It’s super fun. Here. Let’s compare Jac’s 2025 to his 2026.

As you can see, some already impressive red marks drastically improved in his second season. OK, yeah, some of you have already noticed the “2024” under the first player’s image. That’s actually Ben Rice in his first year. The second image really is Jac this season, though. But, uh, take a look at this:

Ben Rice has grown into an absolute monster after kind of a weak showing that first year. I know the comparison everyone loved to make when Jac was first drafted was to Aaron Judge. That was always an unrealistic comp; Judge is a generational talent. But Ben Rice is a much more attainable goal, and he’s still very good. He slashed .264/.363/.534/.897 with 41 home runs and 4.2 fWAR as a no-defense, no-baserunning first baseman this season.

Here’s the kicker: Rice was 25 in that first year and is 27 now; Jac will still only be 24 next season.

Many of us thought that if Jac could be playable this year, the Royals could be a true playoff contender. Unfortunately, the bullpen had other ideas. But not only did Jac become playable, he became a bona fide star. And there is an absolute blueprint for him becoming the kind of superstar that can slash .421/.500/1.105/1.605 in the postseason. It’s been said that Bobby Witt Jr. needed a sidekick to help him lead the Royals to competitive baseball. There was hope that Jac could be that guy. But by this time next year, we might be talking about Bobby having become Jac’s sidekick. And that’s pretty cool.

A great defensive shortstop with solid bat-to-ball skills and a knack for reaching (and winning) World Series, Tony Kubek played in one of the best and most prolific eras in franchise history and shared the same clubhouse as some of the most relevant historical figures in the game. That wasn’t the end of his story though, as went on to offer his baseball insight and direct, outspoken style in the booth with a marvelous broadcasting career that earned him the Hall of Fame’s Ford C. Frick Award in 2009.

Today, Tony celebrates his 92nd birthday.

Anthony Christopher Kubek
Born: October 12, 1935 (Milwaukee, WI)
Yankees Tenure: 1957-65

The son of Jennie and Anthony Alfonse Kubek, Tony was born in Milwaukee on October 12, 1935. The older Anthony played minor league baseball and helped a young Tony fall in love with the game at a very young age.

At Bay View High School, however, Kubek stood out in other disciplines, most notably football, basketball, and track. Baseball was actually dropped from the school program while he was there, so he played the game in sandlot leagues across the city of Milwaukee. There, he was spotted by Lou Maguolo, who worked as a scout for the Yankees from 1947 until the mid-seventies. A left-handed-hitting shortstop, Kubek signed with the Yanks after graduating from Bay View in 1954, and received a $1,500 bonus.

With the dream of eventually replacing Yankees legend Phil Rizzuto, Kubek started at Class D and worked his way up until reaching the majors. In the spring of 1957, manager Casey Stengel prepared the young and hungry prospect to play all over the diamond, since the Yankees had the solid Gil McDougald at shortstop. That year, Kubek started 31 games in left field, 22 in center field, 41 at shortstop, and 38 at third base, all while forming a close friendship with second baseman Bobby Richardson, another long-lived dynasty Yankee.

Kubel was 21 when he debuted in 1957, and he went on to earn American League Rookie of the Year honors after hitting .297/.335/.381 in 127 games and 475 plate appearances. He only hit three homers and stole six bases, but he doubled 21 times and played solid defense on a team that lasted until Game 7 of the World Series.

The Yanks lost that Fall Classic 4-3, but Kubek was excellent against his hometown Milwaukee Braves with eight hits, two homers (both in a 12-3 rout in Game 3 at County Stadium), four runs scored, four RBI, and a .786 OPS.

Sal Maglie, who was on the Yankees roster in that 1957 season but was ineligible for the World Series, offered an accurate scouting report on Kubek from that year while analyzing the series for Sports Illustrated:

“He’s going to be a great player. He’s a fine hitter right now. He hits with the pitch, and it’s hard to fool him. His wrists are so quick he can wait to see where the pitch is thrown before he commits himself, and then he can push it to left or pull it to right. And he’s never satisfied with himself. That’s the sign of a good ballplayer.”

The following year would see Kubek slump a bit offensively with a .265/.295/.317 line (71 wRC+), two round-trippers, and five thefts, but he was an All-Star and earned the first of three World Series rings with the Yankees. He only had a hit in 21 at-bats in this Fall Classic though, and the Yanks exacted revenge on Milwaukee with a seven-game triumph.

Kubek was also recognized as an All-Star in 1959 and finished the year with a .279/.313/.391 line, 25 doubles, seven triples, and six home runs. After hitting a career-high 14 round-trippers in the 1960 regular season, he was part of the team that lost the famous 1960 World Series to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

In Game 7 of that Fall Classic, Kubek was rendered unable to field a groundball hit to him with the Yankees up 7-4, no outs, and a man on first. The ball took a weird bounce off the shoddy Forbes Field infield dirt and struck him in the throat, sending him down to the ground. He had to be replaced and sent to the hospital. The play haunted him for years, as it opened the door for a Pirates rally. It turned out to be the Bill Mazeroski walk-off homer game.

Fate would give Kubek a chance for redemption just one year later. As the Yankees shortstop, he witnessed Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris’ historic home run chase from up close and played on a World Series-winning roster, racking up five hits in the Fall Classic victory over Cincinnati. He played in both All-Star Games that year and finished second in the league with 38 doubles.

In many ways, 1961 was a big year for the Yankees’ shortstop. He got married to Margaret Timmel in October, and just a few days later, on November 4, joined the 127th infantry of the 32nd Division, a Wisconsin National Guard unit, according to his SABR profile.

The expectation was that the Yankees would lose Kubek for the entire 1962 campaign, and Tom Tresh turned in a Rookie of the Year-winning campaign of his own at the six in Kubek’s absence. But the veteran returned in August to post an excellent .314/.357/.432 line in 45 games. He logged eight hits with a .276 batting average as the Bombers beat the Giants in seven games in the World Series. It was his third and final title.

The 1963 and 1964 campaigns would bring World Series losses for the Yankees. His decline would start around those days, probably accelerated by injuries, most notably a back issue suffered in 1963.

After a rough 1965 season that saw him hit a paltry .218/.258/.295 line, Kubek was diagnosed with nerve damage at the top of his spinal column. He believes the origins of the injury stem from 1961, when he was playing touch football. He decided to hang up his cleats at 29. Not too long after that, he started what turned out to be a brilliant career in broadcasting.

Through NBC official David Kennedy, Kubek landed a job as a color commentator for Game of the Week. In a career that spanned over 20 years, the former Yankees great worked alongside voices such as Curt Gowdy, Jim Simpson, Bob Costas, and Joe Garagiola, among others.

Kubek went on to broadcast 11 World Series, 14 League Championship Series, and 10 All-Star Games. In addition to his work at NBC, he also had stints with the Yankees, the Blue Jays, and also at TSN and CTV before stepping away from the game in 1994.

You could certainly say that Kubek has lived life to the fullest. He and his wife Margaret had four children and five grandchildren. He was a star with the bat, the glove, and the microphone, while also serving his country. Not bad at all.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Before we start, some obvious statements. Firstly, we do not know when Opening Day will take place in 2027. With the expiration of the agreement between the owners and the players, and the highly contentious nature of the upcoming negotiations (in particular, around the introduction of a salary cap), it’s possible there may not even be a 2027 Opening Day. However, I’d say odds are strongly on the side of there being some kind of season, albeit in a shortened form. Next, this is super early. We haven’t even had contract tenders yet. What follows also presumes perfect health, which on the basis of previous seasons, is not going to happen. That all said…

The definites

Let’s start with listing the roster spots which are, at the time of writing, definitely filled. We’ll then break down each area and look at the most plausible candidates to fill in the gaps.

• Catcher: Gabriel Moreno
• First base:
• Second base: Ketel Marte#
• Shortstop: Geraldo Perdomo#
• Third base: Nolan Arenado
• Left field: Lars Nootbaar*
• Center field:
• Right field: Corbin Carroll*
• Designated hitter:

• Starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
• Starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez
• Starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
• Starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly
• Starting pitcher:

• Closer: Justin Martinez
• Set-up: Juan Morillo
• Set-up: Brandyn Garcia
• Reliever:
• Reliever:
• Reliever:
• Reliever:

I don’t think many of the above need explanation. I’ve tagged the starting line-up with markers for whether they hit left-handed (*) or are switch-hitters (#), because this is a factor in what the team will look for to fill in the blanks. These players are all under contract for 2027. However, note that a blank doesn’t necessarily mean the team has to sign or trade for someone to fill the position. It may mean there is no overwhelmingly clear internal candidate, and as we’ll see, some of these may still be filled with players already in the organization. I also haven’t even mentioned the bench, because I’d say there are no “definites”. There are some “highly likelys” though.

The starting line-up

Three spots remain uncertain: first base, center field and designated hitter. The free-agent market at 1B is pretty terrible. Only three potential FA players put up even one fWAR this year: Ty France, Jake Bauers and Paul Goldschmidt. Much though the fan-base would like to see Goldy back, I’m highly skeptical. Bauers would be nice, also plays the corner outfield, and would add the left-handed thump, having hit 26 home-runs. He only turned 31 earlier in the week, so we’re not talking Carlos Santana v2.0. It’s been estimated the team might have around $20 million to add to the 2027 payroll. But that might not be enough for Bauers, predicted to earn almost $30 million.

This will probably cause some tiny heads on Twitter to explode, but I’d expect the team to go with a platoon of Pavin Smith and Tyler Locklear at first. Small sample size (33 PA), but Smith looked much better when he came back up in September (.290/.333/.548 for an .882 OPS). Locklear is a player for whom the health issue tabled above is perhaps the most serious concern. September has been a cursed month for him the past two years, tearing his elbow and shoulder in 2025, then fracturing a thumb this year. However, these seem more the result of bad luck than bad health. Smith, as a lefty, will see most action, with Locklear on the bench.

Center field is a spot where the team has clear internal options. We saw two of them play the position this year: Ryan Waldschmidt (53 starts) and Jordan Lawlar (29). Both are currently 24 years old and hit right-handed, so no advantage to either there. Lawlar hit better in 2026 (OPS+ 115 vs 94), albeit in about half the number of plate appearances. However, Jordan has his share of health concerns this year, including a fractured wrist, strained hamstring and a concussion scare after getting hit in the head. This is almost flipping a coin, but I’d give it to Lawlar, with Waldschmidt becoming the fourth outfielder.

Designated hitter is a spot where I can see the team spending some of the $20 million. There has been some suggestion about moving Ketel Marte to DH, but that would just create a hole at second, which might be harder to fill. The team has had some success in previous seasons with the likes of Joc Pederson in 2024. He had a decent bounceback season with the Rangers, producing a 134 OPS+ and will be a free agent this winter again, after signing a two-year, $37 million contract. Might be too rich for us, if he wants something similar, and I can see us going after a reunion with switch-hitting Josh Bell, who played for Arizona in 2024.

• First base: Pavin Smith
• Center field: Jordan Lawlar
• Designated hitter: Josh Bell (free-agent)

The bench

I’m going to presume we go with 13 position players, which would mean a four-man bench. Based on the discussion above, we already have two members on the bench, in Tyler Locklear and Ryan Waldschmidt. While I’d not be surprised by an Ildemaro Vargas re-signing, I’m adding Tim Tawa as one of the “highly likelys” I mentioned. He appeared in 104 games for the D-backs, started at five different positions plus DH, and had a respectable 91 OPS+. We still need a backup catcher. For the former, I can see a third year with James McCann filling the role. Torey Lovullo’s a big fan, singing the catcher’s praises after he signed last winter, and McCann seems to like the organization too.

• Bench: Tyler Locklear
• Bench: Ryan Waldschmidt
• Bench: Tim Tawa
• Bench: James McCann (free agent)

The rotation

Just a single spot to be filled in the Opening Day rotation, and this is an area where we’ll be going with one from the plethora of internal candidates. However, none of the ones used in 2025 exactly covered themselves in glory. Ryne Nelson (15), Mitch Bratt (10), Jose Cabrera (5) and Kohl Drake (5) combined for 35 starts, but went 4-12 with a collective 5.14 ERA in those. None of them had an ERA for the year below 4.70 or a FIP under 5.12. While the others are still young, Nelson will turn 29 before pitchers and catchers report – whenever that may be. After a breakout campaign in 2025, this year was a hard reality check. But his experience likely gives him the job, until the others prove themselves better.

• Starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson

The bullpen

The good news: the Diamondbacks bullpen in 2026 was the best in a while. Since exactly when, depends on your preferred metric. By ERA, since 2018. By FIP and fWAR, since 2017. And by Win Probability, since 2007. Part of that is, admittedly, relative. They ranked only 16th in the majors by relief ERA. Still, we’ll take it. The bad news? A lot of the innings need to be replaced. Our top three by bullpen IP (Taylor Clarke, Kevin Ginkel and Jonathan Loaisiga) are free agents, as are Paul Sewald and Ryan Thompson. All told? We have lost five of our top seven by IP, and must replace 285 innings (almost half all bullpen work), at a better than average 3.76 ERA. A full season from Justin Martinez is barely a start.

We didn’t get much help otherwise. Beyond those seven and JMart, seven other pitchers threw 10+ relief innings. While the usual caveats about reliever volatility and small sample sizes apply, of those seven only impending free-agent Dennis Santana and Gerardo Carrillo had an ERA below five. I’m hoping Andrew Saalfrank can return to something approaching previous form (career ERA+ 243!) after missing all of 2026 due to shoulder surgery. Beyond that though? While the back end looks solid, it really looks like Mike Hazen is going to have to rebuild much of the bullpen again over the winter. Expect more dumpster diving for depth, but I’d not be surprised to see one or more of Clarke, Ginkel and Loaisiga resign.

• Reliever: Gerardo Carillo
• Reliever: Andrew Saalfrank
• Reliever: Jonathan Loaisiga (free agent)
• Reliever: Taylor Clarke (free agent)

Feel free, of course, to disagree with me in the comments, argue over who will (or will not) be back, and discuss where the team should spent the relatively small amount of money it looks like they’ll have available.

For the second time in three years and seventh time in my lifetime, the Cleveland Guardians are in the American League Championship series. This time, they face off against fellow, small-market, analytics-darling the Tampa Bay Rays.

During the 2026 season, the Rays were fifth in MLB at 104 wRC+, ninth in baserunning runs above average at +4.7, 13th in Defense at -12.6, third in starting pitcher ERA at 3.51 (3.79 FIP), and 14th in bullpen ERA at 3.99 (4.35 FIP).

During the 2026 season, the Guardians were a different team after the trade deadline offensively, so I want to provide their wRC+ from August 4th on. The rest of the numbers reflect the full season. So, after the MLB trade deadline, the Guardians were sixth in MLB at 106 wRC+, for the full season, eight in baserunning runs above average at +5.1, ninth in Defense at -7.3, ninth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.93 (3.89 FIP), and sixth in bullpen ERA 3.54 (3.70 FIP).

Looking at the numbers on paper, if you trust the Guardians are more of the offense they have been since making significant trade deadline additions, these teams are fairly evenly matched. The separator is superlative Tampa Bay Rays starting pitching… and, if you have watched these teams throughout the season, you know that the Rays consistently do ALL the little things to win baseball games. The Guardians often do these things… but definitely not as consistently and relentlessly as Tampa Bay has done. With that said, we will see how these dynamics play out in front of us shortly.

Keys to the ALCS for the Guardians

Leverage Your Lefties: The Rays were the 26th best offense against LHP in 2026 with a 90 wRC+ (the Guardians had a 91 wRC+, so… this is a mutual issue). They were fourth best against RHP at 110 wRC+. So, Stephen Vogt will likely need to maximize his left-handed pitchers value by putting them in position to neutralize Tampa’s offensive threats. Expect some heavy doses of Foster Griffin (game one starter), Joey Cantillo, Tim Herrin and Erik Sabrowski whenever they are available. Junior Caminero at 152 wRC+, Victor Mesa, Jr. 146 wRC+, Ryan Vilade 126 wRC+, and Yandy Diaz 114 wRC+ are the primary threats on Tampa’s roster, so working around them (whether with walks or pitching changes) will be crucial to making this plan effective.

Manage Martinez: Angel Martinez had a nightmare ALDS going 0 for 15 with 8 strikeouts. Yet, he had a 152 wRC+ from August 1st onwards and led the team in homers. I suspect the Guardians probably are not going to win the ALCS without Martinez figuring something out. Does seeing how his team managed to win a playoff series without him hitting help him take a breath and stop chasing everything? Might manager Stephen Vogt start Petey Halpin vs. RHP from the Rays? Should he? Figuring out the role Martinez should play in the series ahead will likely prove critical to enhancing the team’s chances to shock the world.

Pounce on the Pen: Aside from not being great against left-handed pitching, the Rays’ other weakness is their bullpen aside from closer Bryan Baker. Now, Baker doesn’t strike out a TON of hitters (9 per 9) and his expected numbers don’t back up his 1.44 ERA from the season… but guys just don’t square him up, and, when they do, they seemingly hit it right at someone. Can the Guardians force the excellent Tampa Bay Rays starters to throw a lot of pitches and get into the bullpen earlier? They’ll have to foul off a lot of pitches to do so because the Rays are strike-throwers and unlikely to issue many walks. If Cleveland can find their way to some BABIP-led hits, some opportunistic home run swings, and some lengthy foul-ball led AB’s, they SHOULD be able to capitalize on a less than ideal Rays’ relief corps.

Resist Revenge: The Guardians eliminated the Rays in the 2022 wildcard series, after the Rays eliminated them in the one-game wildcard playoff in 2013, so this is a rubber match, of sorts. However, the revenge factor goes much deeper, as I’m sure we are all aware and as will be absolutely drilled into our heads by national broadcasters looking for narratives. The Guardians traded Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero to the Rays, and Richie Palacios is a prominent former Cleveland ballplayer, also. Shawn Armstrong and Nathaniel Lowe have played for the Rays… but more prominently, Guardians’ skipper Stephen Vogt was drafted and eventually cut by the Rays. I don’t think MLB teams, as a whole, think about this aspect of the game a lot, but individual players certainly do. I am sure Diaz, Caminero and Palacios would like to place an exclamation point on Cleveland’s decision to move on from each of them, and it will be up to the Guardians’ pitching staff to neutralize all narrative attempts in that direction.

Hold on to Hot Hosey: Jose Ramirez ended the ALDS with a 211 wRC+. If he is feeling good and able to sustain something like this as a hitter, that has the potential to upend this series. However, don’t expect the Rays to spend much time pitching to Hosey if he’s still seeing the ball this well. They will begin to pitch around him/intentionally walk him quickly, which will make it so the rest of the Guardians’ hitters need to come through. Speaking of that…

DeLauter Finds De Lift: After being clearly the Guardians’ best hitter in the 2026 season, DeLauter had a suboptimal ALDS with a 53 wRC+, not taking a walk and running a groundball of 60%. I would guarantee the Guardians will need more from Chase to have a good series this time to be able to go to the World Series. He needs to be a little more patient and find a way to lift some balls off of the infield. He’s more than capable of doing it, but a balky wrist issue may be playing a factor at this point. DeLauter is my key player to watch this series for the Guardians.

Messick Meets Moment: Obviously, the Guardians need Gavin Williams and Cade Smith to continue to be great. But, they somehow managed to beat the White Sox with their best pitcher in 2026, Parker Messick, underperforming. Was Messick off because of how well Chicago knew him? Is he tiring after surpassing career highs in innings pitched? We are about to find out the answers to this question, and Messick will have to return to something closer to his regular season top-3 Cy Young-award finisher form for the Guardians to have a good shot at making the seventh World Series in the history of the franchise.

Unstoppable Force Budges Immovable Object: The Guardians’ pitchers strikeout a TON of hitters, third best in MLB at 9.58 batters per 9 innings. The Rays have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB of 7 batters per 9 innings. Something’s gotta give. Even if the Guardians manage to find some strikeouts, they will need to play excellent defense to compensate for the huge reduction in whiffs their pitchers will get this series as compared to the matchups against the free-swinging White Sox.

Likely Pitching Matchups (All subject to change, to openers, to weather in Cleveland, etc):

Game One, Monday, 8PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Drew Rasmussen, RHP 2.67 ERA (2.81 FIP) vs. Foster Griffin, LHP 3.60 ERA (3.96 FIP)
Game Two, Tuesday, 8PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Freddy Peralta, RHP 3.25 ERA (3.93 FIP) vs. Parker Messick, LHP 2.56 ERA (3.07 FIP)
Game Three, Thursday, 6PM ET, @Cleveland: Gavin Williams, RHP 3.76 ERA (3.47 FIP) vs. Nick Martinez, RHP 3.10 ERA (3.96 FIP)
Game Four, Friday, 6PM ET, @Cleveland: Joey Cantillo, LHP 3.62 ERA (3.98 FIP) vs. Griffin Jax, RHP 3.53 ERA (3.76 FIP)
*Game Five, Saturday, 8PM ET, @Cleveland: Rasmussen vs. Griffin
*Game Six, Monday, 5PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Peralta vs. Messick
*Game Seven, Tuesday, 5PM ET, @Tampa Bay: Williams vs. Martinez

*if necessary

The Rays in 2026 were led Junior Caminero 142 wRC+, Liam Hicks 130 wRC+, Victor Mesa, Jr. 128 wRC+, Yandy Diaz 125 wRC+, and Jonathan Aranda 123 wRC+.

The Guardians in 2026 were led by Chase DeLauter 131 wRC+, Steven Kwan 114 wRC+, Travis Bazzana 110 wRC+, Angel Martinez 108 wRC+ and Nathaniel Lowe 107 wRC+.

The Guardians will need to be incredibly crisp about their execution in pitching, in plate discipline, in defense, and in baserunning to have a shot of hanging with the Rays. Blink in ANY of those areas, and this will be a very quick playoff appearance. It feels amazing to have this opportunity, but you are never guaranteed another shot. It’s crucial for the Guardians to find a way to take advantage of the moment in front of them and fight their way to a shot a title. It is feasible they do so, and that’s all you can ask.

Glossary:
wRC+ is a measure of overall run production where 100 is league average, adjusted for ballpark effects.
Defense measures a team’s overall run value above average in fielding.
FIP looks at ERA independent from a team’s fielding abilities.

Memorable Blue Jays Playoff Moments

11 Years Ago

Eleven years ago, the Blue Jays triumphed in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Rangers.

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Jays faced a daunting challenge. Yet, they responded with a decisive 8-4 victory, scoring early and often.

From the recap:

It started perfectly. Ben Revere put down an excellent bunt single, and Josh Donaldson followed with a home run. Then a Chris Colabello home run put us up 3-0 before the Rangers had their first at-bat.

Second inning: Kevin Pillar hits a solo homer.

Third inning: Donaldson walks, Jose Bautista doubled followed by an Edwin Encarnacion ground out (Bautista tried to go second to third, but Elvis Andrus decoyed him and got him at third), scoring Josh. Colabello doubled, bringing home another. A Russell Martin walk and a Pillar single were up 7-1.

One more run in the seventh got us to 8.

A bit of controversy emerged as R.A. Dickey pitched 4.2 innings, surrendering 5 hits, no walks, 3 strikeouts, and just one earned run. Despite a manageable pitch count of 78, manager John Gibbons removed him just one out shy of qualifying for a playoff win. It seemed strange to take the win away from R.A.

Gibbons brought in David Price, despite Price’s postseason struggles—he had allowed 5 runs in 7 innings in Game 1. Price had posted a stellar 9-1 record with a 2.30 ERA since joining the Jays at the trade deadline.

With only Game 5 remaining, and assuming the Jays would win, Gibbons had already chosen Marcus Stroman to start the finale. Perhaps he wanted to avoid any controversy regarding that decision.

Personally, I would have preferred Price to be available in the bullpen for Game 5, in case Stroman struggled. Dickey deserved the chance to earn the win, and it seemed unnecessary to use Price when Dickey could have pitched deeper, keeping the bullpen rested for the deciding game.

The win set up a very interesting game five.

34 Years ago

The Jays clinched Game 6 of the ALCS, advancing to the World Series for the second consecutive year with a 6-3 victory over the White Sox.

Dave Stewart delivered 7.1 strong innings, allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits with 4 walks and 3 strikeouts. Duane Ward secured the save, surrendering a solo home run over 1.2 innings and striking out three.

On the offensive side:

Devon White went 3-for-5, capping the game with a ninth-inning home run. Paul Molitor contributed by going 1-for-3 with a walk and a triple, driving in two in the ninth—a key three-run inning, especially after Ward allowed a home run in the bottom half. Pat Borders added a 2-for-4 performance with three RBIs, highlighted by a two-run single in the second and an RBI ground out in the fourth.

The Jays would go on to defeat the Phillies in the World Series.

That team featured an outstanding lineup:

The Guardians have announced their roster for the ALCS, making one change from the 26 guys they brought to the ALDS.

The Guardians have swapped right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi on to the roster for the longer ALCS (with more back-to-back games) and left utility man Daniel Schneemann off the roster.

There was some speculation about if Tanner Bibee would make the roster, but he’s still here after a ROUGH end to the season and terrible brief outing in game four of the ALDS. I don’t think there was a clearly better option for Bibee’s spot, but we will see what kind of exposure Stephen Vogt allows Bibee and unused Matt Festa and Cecconi to see for the series ahead.

Again, I would have liked to see the Guardians take a shot at getting some left-handed bench thump for this series (from Kyle Manzardo or Cooper Ingle, given Ralphy Velazquez is probably not an option at this point), but, hey, they just won a playoff series, so I have to trust their plan for the moment. Just feels like it would be nice to have one more home-run threat to help in potential pinch-hitting spots.

It will be important, given the length of this series and the lack of convenient off-days, for Vogt to use almost all of his 14 pitchers. Finding the right spots to let Cecconi, Festa and Bibee have a chance to contribute may become a crucial part of the Guardians’ chance at upsetting the Rays in the days ahead.

The Atlanta Braves are now into the offseason, which means that it’s time for General Manager Alex Anthopoulos to speak with the media and give his thoughts on both the season that was and what’s on the horizon for the team going forward. There’s a lot (and boy, do I mean a lot) to discuss from the time he spent speaking with the local media via Zoom and as you can imagine, things ran the gamut from the usual GM-speak to some general thoughts on the club, all the while giving everybody the slightest chance to do some speculation about the direction that the Braves are going in for the future — whatever the future may hold due to the impending labor war on the horizon.

I did ask AA about what stood out to him about this team relative to the expectations that he had for this ballclub back on Opening Day and his answer kind of ran parallel to what manager Walt Weiss had been saying about his ideal clubhouse.

“I probably started focusing a little bit too much on talent and less on how the pieces would fit. I was pretty determined this offseason to get back to that…We really got back to really focusing on makeup, character, team fit with everybody that we brought in…That’s probably the one thing I’m most proud of.”

“On paper, we obviously have a lot of talented players but I’ve always said that the one thing that you shouldn’t get wrong is the makeup and the character. You do enough work and make enough phone calls, you’re probably not going to make a mistake on that one. Guys might get hurt and may not play well and you’re going to make those mistakes but in terms of knowing who you bring into the room, you should bat 1.000 on that one. Maybe occasionally someone surprises you and they slide under the line [of character expectations].”

“I’m really proud of the fact that when it came to that, we got back to who we were and what we’re about. We’ve talked about the word ‘culture…’ The culture is the players that you put into it….You bring in the right guys, they come together, those 26 each year (because it’s never the same), they set the culture. They set the attitude, they set the vibes. I feel like we were successful in getting back to that and sometimes you have to…continue to evolve and continue to self-reflect. I feel like we got back to that, which was pretty important. It doesn’t mean you’re in a World Series each year but I love what we were about and the way that the group came together.”

AA did mention that he was proud of this Braves club for keeping it close against the Dodgers in the NLDS when he was asked during the press conference about whether or not he had any regrets that he’d take with him to the offseason. “All the games, except for the last one, really through the seventh inning, they were close,” stated AA. “Obviously Game 2 we won, Game 1 we had the tying run at the plate late so they were all close except for the last one. We had some moments (obviously with guys on base) but we were right there. You wanna get the big hit and you wanna score more runs but you also know you’re facing great arms on the other side too. You’re trying to walk the fine line between ‘Should we have done this’ and being able to respect the other side.”

“You can walk through so many things but you also respect the fact that you’re going to face a great team. The series was close and each game (except for the last one where we didn’t really threaten at the end) was close.”

While plenty of the focus in the aftermath of the Postseason has been on the lack of offense near the end, Anthopoulos has chosen to take the long view of things. He repeatedly mentioned that the team finished in the top 10 in batting average (.246, which was tied for 10th with both the Diamondbacks and the Nationals) and slugging (.409, tied for sixth with the Yankees) while also mentioning that some work needed to be done with their on-base percentage, which was certainly below average at .309 and 28th place in all of baseball.

Still, it doesn’t seem like it’s the type of thing where Alex Anthopoulos would be putting pressure on Walt Weiss to potetially make a change at hitting coach. “If we had a good year, I do believe in continuity from a coaching staff,” stated AA when he was asked about his thoughts on Jeremy Hefner and Tim Hyers, specifically. “That’s not to say that you keep everybody for the sake of keeping everybody. If you think you can get better, you need to make adjustments. I haven’t had any conversations with Walt — this will be me and Walt’s first offseason together and there’s no rush on that type of stuff.”

“I think continuity is important for a few reasons. One, new coach comes in, you don’t know them and you don’t get the trust factor immediately,” continued AA. “It takes time. There’s times where you’re willing to do that and wait and obviously we did it this year with a ton of new staff but it takes time,” continued Anthopoulos. “I think there’s upside for guys to continue to get better now that potentially some of them are going into year two. In terms of [Hefner] and [Hyers] again, we were top-3 in the NL in basically everything [pitching-wise]. From an offensive standpoint, we were top-10 in the Majors in a lot of things. Second half of [2025] our on-base was lot better, it’s a lot of the same guys. This past year, on-base was low but we did all these other things well. We obviously have room to get better so I’d say that I think continuity is important…I think eveyrbody did a really good job and I’m pleased with all of them.”

At multiple points during the press conference, AA was grilled about the positions that he’d be going after during the offseason, with one question going as far as to ask Anthopoulos straight-up if they were going into the offseason looking for specifically two starting pitchers and a left fielder. As you would imagine, AA was cagey about it and stayed cagey as other media members continued to push the issue — especially when it came to players who may or may not be available via trade.

“You gotta remember, our players are going to see that stuff. ‘Hey, he only mentioned these 1 or 2 guys. Why didn’t he include me?’ Now I have an agent calling me and a player calling me…There’s zero upside to that. I get the question and I get trying to piece it all together but I will tell you this: We will go into the offseason open-minded about all kinds of stuff,” stated AA. “That’s how you have discussions and that’s how you get creative. THat’s how things go. You never know — I’ve always said that everyone has a price. There’s always a deal even on a player that you’re unlikely or reluctant to ove. At some point, you include guys. I have no idea where those things are going to go but I don’t think we’re in a position to rule anything out. I just don’t believe in doing it.”

AA did go on to mention that the Braves are planning on using their exclusive negotiation rights with both Mauricio Dubón and Tyler Mahle to the best of their ability, so they’re going to give it a good shot when it comes to retaining those two. When it comes to the team options on both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies, AA didn’t commit to a decision for either player but I’d imagine that it’s safe to assume that both of them will be back.

Anthopoulos did also directly address the Jurickson Profar situation and while he did mention that Profar is under contract for 2027, he definitely stopped short of guaranteeing that Profar would indeed be back next season.

“Those are conversations that we’re going to have,” stated AA. “We know it’s coming, clearly. We know he’s under contract for 2027, we knew the suspension was gonna be a year. That’s obviously a topic we’re going to have to address and talk about, we haven’t had that discussion yet.”

“I wouldn’t be prepared to give you a definitive answer one way or another,” continued Anthopoulos. “That’s not to be cryptic or hedge. I know it’s tough because you guys can only work with what I say…There wasn’t anything for us to do or address [when it came to Profar’s suspension], he was out for the season…What I can tell you is that we’re going to have to sit and talk internally across the board about the whole thing. This is now the time to have those discussions.”

Anthopoulos also talked about Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider and while our article from Sunday touched upon those (and other) topics of discussion during the press conference, further detail really illuminated the matter. “Strider was in Florida throwing bullpens and feeling good,” said AA. “Again, you’re still far away from rehab games, innings and things like that. Schwellenbach had surgery. I think from a planning standpoint, I don’t think it’d be responsible to say ‘Okay, those guys are going to start 30 games and throw 180 innings,’ right? That’s something we’re definitely going to have to account for and talk about when it comes to where we’re going to get our innings next season.”

“I remember telling Grant Holmes even last offseason at the beginning that how he progresses was going to tell us what his potential role would be. As we sit here today, I don’t think you’re going to see us come in and say that we expect those guys to be locks in the rotation with Sale,” said AA as he continued to explain the situation. “I don’t think that’d be a responsible thing to say. We know what they can be when they’re healthy and they’re right and the upside is off the charts but right now because of the lost years for basically both…we’ll just see how the offseason progresses at this point. It’s not something going into November that we’ll have any clarity on going into next Spring.”

AA also seemed to confirm the idea that Didier Fuentes would be starting games in the future — with the future being 2027 (or whenever the next season is) if his audition for a starting rotation role goes well during spring training. “We view him as a starter long-term,” confirmed AA. “We’ve been consistent with that. We know he can be a great reliever — we just saw it. On the one hand, you have a bird in the hand that you know you’ve got a really impactful bullpen arm that we believe it’s real and that he can continue to do this — health-permitting, of course.”

“Those are things we have to weigh. We think there’s tremendous upside,” continued AA. “It’s nice to know you’ve got an impact arm out of the ‘pen but you also know that there’s tremendous upside. He can put it together as a starter since he’s still so young. The development of both the changeup and the slider are pretty encouraging.”

“What we don’t know is the workload. Can he handle 25-plus starts, 150 innings. All those things, we’ll have to have those conversations. And then, can you do that in ‘27? Are you going to go from 70-plus innings and jump to [a higher workload] and those are all things that we’ll have to talk about.”

The General Manager was really gracious with his time on Sunday, as he took questions for an hour — something that is definitely out of the ordinary. While Anthopoulos has never been shy about sharing his opinions on the team, we were certainly in uncharted territory when it came to this particular press conference. That just goes to show just how intriguing the Braves are at the moment. The current NL East Champions have plenty of questions surrounding them with an uncertain offseason looming. It’ll truly be interesting to see how things shake out for this team going forward — and whether or not we’ll have to wait out a long lockout in order to get questions to those answers. We’ll see what happens.

The promise of a low-scoring game was fulfilled in the NLCS opener, as the Brewers needed only a pair of runs to improve on last postseason’s outcome, having been swept by the Dodgers the last time out. There was plenty of frustration to go around for the Dodgers offensively—especially so considering how effective they were in getting Jacob Misiorowski out of the game early, which ties into the glass-half-full outlook they can take from this loss in what always felt like it was going to be a complicated series.

Through nine innings of Game 1 against the Brewers, the Dodgers offense reached base safely more often than it did in any of the three wins against the Braves in the NLCS. Combining walks and hits, the Dodgers got on base 13 times, including seeing at least one hitter reach base in eight of the nine frames.

This traffic amounted to next to nothing because the issues with runners in scoring position carried over. And unlike in the series against the Braves, the Dodgers’ power was nowhere to be found, as all of their seven hits were singles. Nevertheless, the Dodgers could’ve easily had a better scoring output without power if not for timely double plays that the Brewers relied on to end not one, not two, but three separate innings—most notably getting out of a bases-loaded situation in the second.

As frustrating as this performance might have been, to be this threatening so often against the best the Brewers have to offer could easily be seen as an encouraging sign. Focusing specifically on the power or lack thereof, regardless of how phenomenal the Brewers’ pitching is, this lack of thump was most likely a one-off scenario for an offense that has more than nine hitters capable of punishing a mistake. It’s extremely plausible that the Dodgers’ offense will do more with less before this series is over, maybe as early as Game 2.

Moving on to specifics, with Shohei Ohtani getting his occasional hit here and there, Will Smith has been left holding the bag as the core piece most struggling in this current version of the Dodgers’ offense. Smith was one of the few starting hitters in this game who didn’t record a hit, but he did, however, hit the ball hard in all three of his at-bats with nothing to show for it. The Dodgers’ most disappointing hitter of the regular season, Kyle Tucker, looked locked in, and although he also didn’t record a hit, the quality of the at-bats was impressive—including a couple of walks against Jacob Misiorwoski and Trevor Megill.

Dave Roberts’ respect for the Brewers’ relievers was evident in his lineup construction with a righty/lefty approach one through nine. In that spirit, potential impact off the bench might be key, and there was promise in it as well. Josue De Paula was once again asked to take a key at-bat late in a playoff game and delivered his part. The young outfielder pinch-hit for Kiké Hernández in the ninth with Trevor Megill on the mound, and he helped get the tying run in scoring position by working a two-out walk, ultimately stranded on a Mookie Betts flyout. The ability to rely on a patient hitter of his quality off the bench adds a layer of danger to this offense.