CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 23: Catcher David Fry #6 and Tyler Freeman #2 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrate a 4-1 win against the Boston Red Sox at Progressive Field on April 23, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Stephen Vogt is a great manager, but we need to see some adjustment in how he uses David Fry.
Good news on David Fry! He appears to be a solid major league hitter. He has a 112 wRC+ this season and a 110 wRC+ for his career.
Bad news on Guardians’ catchers! The Guards have two amazing defensive catchers who cannot hit a lick – Hedges has a career 51 wRC+ and Bailey has a career 71 wRC+.
Good news! David Fry can play catcher, so he can be put in a catcher position to allow the team not to endure a Patrick Bailey or Austin Hedges at-bat with the game on the line.
Bad news! Stephen Vogt seems to have too much confidence in Bailey and Hedges as hitters (mistake!) and/or not enough confidence in David Fry as a catcher (he may be right!) to optimally employ this strategy. Notably, he can pinch-hit for Bailey or Hedges in the 7th or 8th and then get whichever defensive savant he wants in the game in the 9th to relieve Fry to reduce any defensive risks.
Last night, in the bottom of the fifth last night, Tuesday, May 20th, with right-hander Kyle Finnegan on the mound, Stephen Vogt pinch-hit Travis Bazzana for David Fry, who was in right-field at the time. I am really not sure why he did this, as Finnegan was clearly at the end of his appearance and Tigers’ manager AJ Hinch was likely to bring a lefty in to face a left-handed hitter, as he proceeded to do. Mostly, the issue with this move was the Fry was now unavailable to move to catcher if a pinch-hitter was needed for Patrick Bailey later in the game. This is not an isolated incident, nor is choosing to start David Fry at DH where moving him to catcher requires the team to lose the DH-spot.
Consequently, the worst possible outcome occurred later in the game. Needing one run to tie the game, Patrick Bailey took the most important at-bat of the game for the Guardians with only Petey Halpin and Austin Hedges available on the bench to bat for him. Bailey got the groundball to tie the game, but not without significant travail. Now, Bazzana did single ahead of Bailey’s at-bat to give the team the chance to tie the game, so maybe Vogt wins on this gambit. Yet, it doesn’t change the fact that Vogt and the team need to be clear on this strategem – if at all possible, Fry needs to be kept available to be used in the catcher spot so that Austin Hedges and Patrick Bailey do not have the fate of any game resting on their bats unless absolutely necessary.
Stop being confident in Bailey and Hedges to hit with the game on the line. There is AMPLE evidence that neither should be trusted to hit. Optimize David Fry’s presence on this roster by leveraging him into catcher at-bats late in close games. Please and thank you.
Baseball field, engraving, United States of America, 19th century. | De Agostini via Getty Images
On May 21, 1880, a strange thing happened in upstate New York. While playing at Riverside Park in Albany, Lip Pike — playing for the National Association team in Albany in between stints at the professional/semi-professional level — hit a fly ball over the fence in right field and into the nearby river. Outfielder Lon Knight, playing for the visiting Worcester Ruby Legs, hopped in a boat to chase the ball — because, despite the fact that the ball went over the wall, it was still technically a live ball!
These days, when the ball goes over the fence, it is out of play, and depending on whether it gets there on the fly or on a bounce determines whether it’s a home run or a ground-rule double (yes, it’s officially called an automatic double, but, well, old habits die hard). However—like everything in baseball—this rule wasn’t written down on golden tablets handed to Abner Doubleday/Alexander Cartwright/whichever semi-mythological figure you consider to be the founder of baseball, but one that evolved throughout the history of the game. Unfortunately, the Baseball Almanac’s list of rules changes does not give us an exact moment that this rule was created, but we can surmise that it came into existence prior to the National League’s creation in 1876, as on May 2nd of that year, Chicago White Stockings second baseman Ross Barnes hit the first home run in what would become Major League history. But even then, its story was not so simple.
If you have followed my history-of-early-baseball posts over the past few years, you already know that 19th-century baseball was organized very differently than the baseball of today. Rather than a centralized league imposing a particular ruleset, the home team determined the particular rule set the game was played under, with convention dictating the most basic rules, up until the creation of the NL. Indeed, even after the Senior Circuit came into existence, the home teams still had quite a bit of say in how the game was played, as the NL office in its early years focused less on the product on the field and more on bullying other leagues out of existence to ensure a monopoly over the sport (but that’s a story for another day).
We see hints of this still today, where individual ballparks have rules to determine home run/ground rule double/foul ball when the ball hits a catwalk, or gets stuck in the ivy, or any other random thing occurs that is unique to that ballpark. But in the 1800s, even fundamental rules, such as what happened when a ball went over the fence, depended on where the game was played.
Did Lon Knight actually grab a boat and chase down a ball in the river in order to get the ball and try to make a play? In truth, it sounds a bit ridiculous. How slow must the batter have been where hopping the fence, heading into a boat, and setting sail on the river seemed a perfectly reasonable solution? It’s not for nothing that the SABR biography of Knight says “there is undoubtedly some fictitious element to the story.” Since the teams had a limited amount of balls back in those days, it seems more likely to me that Knight hopped in the river not to continue the play, but to continue the game, and that over time, the story grew in its telling. What this story does reinforce, though, is the fact that these rules depended by and large on the ballpark; if a ball over the fence was always a home run, after all, this story could not have come into existence in the version described.
Naturally, some teams took advantage of this. In the early 1880s, the Chicago White Stockings played on a field with short fences (some sources place them less than 200 feet from home plate), and according to convention at the time, batted balls hit over a fence that was less than 250 feet were treated as doubles, not home runs. According to SABR, however, in 1884, Chicago changed their own ground rule so that everything that went over the fence was considered a homer, not a double, resulting in a season in which Ned Williamson hit 27 home runs, a record that would stand until Babe Ruth’s 29-homer season in 1920.
In time, to stop shenanigans such as this, rules surrounding batted balls hit over the fence were ultimately standardized. Originally, in addition to all fly balls that went over the wall being considered home runs, all balls that bounced just once before going over fell into this category, neatly paralleling the fact that, up until 1864 for fair balls and 1883 for foul balls, batted balls caught on one bounce were considered an out; only in 1931 was this rule changed, and the modern-day ground-rule double brought into existence. As such, these days, shenanigans about long fly balls are limited to non-professional games, such as your local little leagues or bar softball games — or, apparently, the Saarikenttä in Finland.
It's a small slate Thursday, and things have been at their coldest around here of late. It's time to ask sweet Baby Jesus to bless these four-baggers and MLB player props. I don't always look for help, but today it's needed, and one game is getting a lot of attention.
In addition to doubling up on the Rockies-Diamondbacks clash, I'm looking at slugging catcher Shea Langeliers to grab his 13th long ball of the season when he steps in against Jose Soriano and the wobbly Los Angeles Angels bullpen.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 21.
First, it’s a small slate, but Goodman just saw E-Rod in his last start and did rope a 101-mph single off him. The Colorado Rockies also put nine balls in play at 95+ mph against the lefty in that series. Goodman posted a .969 OPS during it as well, including a homer off Merrill Kelly. The right-handed bat also owns the fastest swing on the team over the last two weeks at 75 mph.
The familiarity factor usually isn’t priced in, which gives this HR prop more expected value with a fair price around +380. The lefty starter has also pitched above both his career fly-ball and HR/FB rates, so some long-ball regression could finally be on the way.
With colder weather rolling in and pitcher-friendly winds showing up around the league, a controlled hitting environment may be the best place to hunt dingers on a small-slate Thursday.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+445)
The Diamondbacks have a great hitting matchup today as the Rockies are rolling with call-up Zach Agnos, who hasn’t started a game this year and will hand things off early to a Colorado bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA over the last two weeks and ranks 28th in HR/FB rate over that stretch.
Corbin Carroll got the day off yesterday, but before that, he had ripped triples in back-to-back games and, three games ago, launched a pair of home runs against the Rockies and this bullpen.
It’s also nice to get a Top-10 bat sitting right at +EV with a fair price around +360. Over the last two weeks, Carroll ranks eighth in BlastContact, third in slugging, and second in ISO. On this small slate, he projects as the third-most likely player to go deep behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+350)
Jose Soriano has fallen out of form, allowing 15 runs over his last 22 innings. The command is wavering, the double-digit strikeouts are no longer showing up, and Shea Langeliers has been a major problem for him.
The BlastContact darling has already taken Soriano deep twice in 11 at-bats while posting a 1.765 OPS in the matchup. He hasn’t had the best series so far, but getting plunked twice yesterday could provide some added motivation for a hitter sitting on 12 home runs and batting .322. Only four players have a higher slugging percentage than Langeliers this season.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen is also capable of cashing this HR prop. It owns the second-worst ERA on the season, and that mark has been even uglier over the last two weeks (6.60). It’s extremely fly-ball heavy, and its HR/FB rate also sits in the Bottom 3 in baseball.
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBC Sports California, ABTV
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 13-83, -15.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
Hunter Goodman
Bet Now +10600
Corbin Carroll
Shea Langeliers
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The New York Mets, ranked fifth in the NL East with a 21-28 record, face the Washington Nationals, who are third in the NL East with a 25-25 record. The game is essentially a pick'em, with the Mets at -115 and the Nationals at -105. Starting pitchers are David Peterson for the Mets, with a 5.40 ERA, and Cade Cavalli for the Nationals, with a 4.05 ERA.
How to watch New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
It's a condensed schedule on a Thursday getaway day, but our expert MLB picks have still found a quartet of prices showing strong value at Polymarket.
See why our baseball experts love the Braves, Jays, and A's to come out victorious tonight... as well as the Mets and Nats going through the motions this afternoon.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mets/Nationals Under 8.5
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
Let’s hammer the getaway Under with the New York Mets heading to Miami on Friday and the Washington Nationals traveling to Atlanta tonight. The weather is working in the Under’s favor as well, with 10-mph winds blowing in, 60-degree temperatures, and some projected rain in the mix. Neither team is likely eager to grind through a getaway-day game, and we could see some quick at-bats with both clubs having all of their high-leverage bullpen arms available. THE BAT also backs the Under with a fair price of -153 and just 7.56 projected runs.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 43¢ (+133) at Polymarket
Braydon Fisher will open for the Toronto Blue Jays, with Spencer Miles expected to handle the bulk of the innings afterward. At 43 cents, I’m more than willing to back Toronto against the New York Yankees, as I make the Blue Jays closer to 49-cent (+104) underdogs tonight. Toronto is expected to roll out a lineup featuring eight right-handed bats against Carlos Rodón, who has yet to look sharp since returning from injury, sporting a 5.63 ERA through his first two starts and still likely on a restricted pitch count. His fastball-slider combination has historically been vulnerable to right-handed power, and that issue becomes even more concerning when he isn’t at his best. The top of Toronto’s lineup, led by George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is also very familiar with Rodón, giving the Blue Jays another edge offensively.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider has allowed a single run on just four hits, while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 27.3% hard-hit rate, across his past two starts, and I’m anticipating him keeping the good times rolling against a ho-hum Miami Marlins lineup. The Marlins rank 19th in wOBA against right-handed arms, and Miami also ranks 20th in both overall ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks. Of course, Atlanta has been a force at the dish all season and sits second in both runs per game and wOBA against righties.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: A's moneyline
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
This is a great number on the Athletics tonight vs. an Angels team that has lost eight of its last nine games, with the offense bordering on embarrassing. Jose Soriano is crashing back to earth, allowing 12 earned runs and 24 baserunners across his three May starts, while Luis Severino’s numbers remain respectable outside of Sacramento, where he owns a 3.57 ERA. The biggest edge comes offensively, with the A's ranking fourth in OPS over the last two weeks... and the Angels sitting at 27th. LA’s bullpen has also been a disgrace, ranking 29th in both ERA and FIP during that span.
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The Toronto Blue Jays, ranked third in the AL East with a 22-27 record, face the New York Yankees, who are second in the AL East with a 30-20 record. The New York Yankees are favored with a -150 moneyline compared to the Toronto Blue Jays' +125. Starting pitchers are Braydon Fisher for Toronto, with a 3.08 ERA, and Carlos Rodón for New York, with a 5.63 ERA.
How to watch Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees
May 20, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Paul Sewald (38) celebrates with catcher Adrian del Castillo (25) after beating the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images | Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images
Dominic Smith is the 6th Braves player in the divisional era (1969) with an over-the-wall HR AND either an inside-the-park or Little League HR (non-HR PA scored on) in the same game, joining:
7/27/93 Fred McGriff (ITP) 7/18/86 Andres Thomas 5/1/79 Gary Matthews Sr. (ITP) 6/26/77… pic.twitter.com/JAuLeGCKHt
Turns out, babies are as soft and delicate as they look. Babies may have more bones than the average fully-grown human, but they definitely won’t be doing any stunts anytime soon. Babies are born with a cartilaginous structure in their knees that will eventually develop into kneecaps by the time they are four years old.
The smallest ocean is the Arctic ocean.
It is also the shallowest and the coldest ocean among the world’s five ocean basins. The Arctic ocean is about 1.5 times the size of the United States.
A double rainbow is a mirror image of the first rainbow.
A double rainbow forms when a raindrop has two reflections where one reflection will be at an angle of 42 degrees. However, the sun’s reflection may also cause a second image off the back of the raindrop.
Spencer Strider only made his season debut at the beginning of this month, but he's been lights out. The right-hander owns a 2.45 ERA through three starts, and he's struck out 18 hitters in 14 2/3 innings of work. While Strider finished with just four Ks last time out, he cashed the Over in his two other appearances, and both were on the road.
The Miami Marlins are 12th in team strikeouts, and they're averaging 9.67 punchouts over their previous three contests. Strider hasn't faced many of these Marlins hitters before, but his swing-and-miss stuff is evident right now. He'll rack up the Ks in the series finale here.
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: BravesVision, Marlins.TV
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs (-106)
Ronald Acuna Jr. just returned from injury, and he's made an immediate impact for the Atlanta Braves. The slugger has four runs across his last two games, and he's hit the Over in runs scored in four straight. Acuna had two walks and a hit in the series opener against the Fish, and he registered another base knock on Wednesday.
The Venezuelan will be licking his chops ahead of tonight's matchup, too. He'll face Sandy Alcantara, against whom he's hitting .342 (13-for-38) with four doubles, a triple, two home runs, and two RBI. He's also drawn eight walks vs. Alcantara, and the Braves are hitting .270 with RISP.
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Braves.Vision, Marlins.TV
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+187)
The Toronto Blue Jays take on the New York Yankees again tonight, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be biting at the bit to step up to the plate. Carlos Rodon takes the hill, and Guerrero is 11-for-18 lifetime against the lefty with seven RBI. He's driven in a run in each of the first two games of this series as well.
The slugger's last three RBI have all been on the road, where he's notched 13 of his 22 RBIs on the year. Rodon has had serious trouble getting Guerrero out, and it's common knowledge that the 27-year-old typically swings it well against the Bronx Bombers overall.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Sportsnet, YES
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 34-62, +3.65 units
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May 24, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller (50) and pitcher Luis Castillo (58) interact during the sixth inning against the Oakland Athletics at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
For better, for worse, for discourse, we saw our first “piggyback” start Tuesday night. Bryce Miller, in his second appearance back from a stint on the IL, carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning versus the White Sox, looking much more 2024 than 2025. Castillo came in and gave two solid innings of relief before things fell apart in the ninth. The Mariners wound up losing the game 2-1in one of the least fun games to watch this season by far. It’s sparked plenty of discussion about what the Mariners are supposed to do with a healthy Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Hancock, Castillo and now Miller. -NV
Nick V: I’m happy with the “piggyback” approach. I know last night, it was more Castillo out of the ‘pen than a real piggyback, but I like the idea that it’s flexible on a given night based on who’s pitching and how they’re pitching. Bryce was throwing gas and so he got to throw almost 6. But if he was starting to fade in the fourth, now Castillo gives you 4 innings. Last night was just one way it could go.
Kate: But last night was about as good as it could go minus the ninth and it was still hard on them. Did you read Bryce’s postgame comments where he said basically “Hey man, I’m just an employee here”? I just think it’s too much disruption to the starters and their routines and if they’re unhappy, they can’t do their best work. Plus, Bryce also said the whole point is to do whatever it takes to win and they didn’t even win, although that’s more on the offense I guess. But now two of your pitchers have made this sacrifice and there’s still an L on the board.
Also it must feel so crappy for whoever is getting piggybacked. Luis I think can take it in stride at this point in his career, but I’m worried this is damaging to Bryce after everything he’s been through, now he has to figure out a way to escape piggyback jail. I don’t think it’s a coincidence he took a no hitter into the fifth or sixth or wherever it was last night.
Nick: I don’t think any pitcher ever wants to come out of any game, but the point is taken. That being said, historically Bryce has averaged about 5.1 IP per start. He obviously had more in the tank last night, but that feels more an exception than a rule. I feel like the value of this approach is flexibility and mitigating risk.
Re: Bryce’s quotes, that sounds like a communication issue or a lack of a clear game plan issue by the coaching staff. They should have made it very well and clear that, for example, Bryce was never going to pitch more than six innings so empty the tank for those six innings, or whatever the plan is.
Evan: For the first time in the Dan Wilson era, I feel like the team off the field failed the players on it, and that’s very out of character for them. They’re a smart organization. They are generally more tactically sound, even if they don’t play up to it.
Eric S: It does seem like the kind of thing that lives or dies by how it’s communicated and/or sold to the starting pitchers, similar to buying into the opener approach a few seasons ago. Like no starter in their right mind prefers this approach, right? They’re all extremely confident, stubborn dudes, otherwise they would not be here pitching in MLB. They have routines, like you said. But, if team unity and buy-in by the players is strong enough, then it seems like the piggybacking approach could work as long as they actually win games. If they blow it like last night one or two more times, I’m sure they’ll have to abandon it.
Kate: I’m thinking about Bryce’s “our job is to throw however many pitches they say” comment and it strikes me how little agency there is in that statement. Which seems to directly contradict the whole “conviction” thing they drill into every starter. I’ll try to find the sticker again, Kirby has it in his locker, but it’s something like, “command, control, conviction.”
Nick: You were the one actually talking to him, though. Was his “however we need to win we will do it” seem genuine or was he hitting one of these?
Kate: I don’t doubt Bryce is willing to do whatever it takes to win, but I am not sure he thinks this is the way to win. But I might be projecting my own feelings. He was mad for sure, but I guess that could have been about the loss in general.
Connor: I think going to Ferrer for Murakami in the sixth was totally sound process.
Evan: I don’t have an issue with them using Ferrer, it just feels inconsistent with their own stated objectives. It’s weird to defer to Ferrer in the 6th but not Munoz in the 9th. That’s where if you’re doing that to “piggyback”, you lose me.
Nick: Process-wise, I agree, Connor. It’s like the whole platoon thing, I don’t like judging decisions like these based on results just because the sport is so variable, especially with how few times it happens. It is about the process. And I feel like if players are feeling a lack of agency, it’s a coaching/communication issue. I mean, even if we went to a normal pen day after 5.2, he probably is just as mad, right?
Ryan: I thought the piggyback went great honestly. I think it’s good for Miller and I think it’s the only shot Castillo has of making it to the end of the season on the roster. I’d like to see 10 Miller starts while maintaining velocity and effectiveness after each turn before letting him free.
Evan: I think this is it. I was really pondering it this morning and the only reason this makes real sense is if they are a bit skeptical of long term Bryce and just wanna walk it all the way out.
Kate: 10 starts?! That’s nearly 3 months. I think Bryce Miller would call those 10 starts his “rehab assignment.”
John: I don’t doubt Miller and Castillo find it frustrating in this moment. I’m skeptical though that the mental alteration translates ultimately to a deleterious impact on them broadly. This is Nathan Eovaldi’s career! Seth Lugo’s, Michael Wacha’s, Michael King, etc. There are tons of guys who handled a piggyback or swingman role for a while and came out of it as good or better. And Bryce was horrible last year. For as much as we hope and believe he’ll be back to his 2024 self, he dragged the team down for months when they desperately needed him.
Kate: Lugo, Wacha, King didn’t come up in an organization that tells you if you’re not going six you are actively hurting the team, though.
John: I can’t say I know what the specific instruction was, but the 2016 Mets, 2011 Dodgers, and 2013 Cardinals had their starters going longer than the Mariners did when Miller came up. The 2019 Yankees… were not doing that in fairness, lol. Just to say tho, the M’s stand out by expecting the baseline that was expected 0.5-1 generation of pitchers ago, so I’m not sure it’s so out there compared to veteran examples.
Nick: Kate, Evan, as the two of us who are probably least happy with this approach, would you rather move to Bryce Miller as the fifth starter and Castillo as a reliever? If so, what role do you see him playing? Swingman, higher leverage?
Evan: Yes. And it aligns with the positive things people saw last night from both guys. The people who feel it went well I think are expressing positivity about Castillo’s first two innings and only second ever non-start, which is super valid. I think just letting him roll with that is the way to go without being beholden to this other, less consistent ruleset they applied last night. Get the best from Bryce, the best from Luis, prioritize winning the game! And if they gotta stretch Luis back out in a few weeks, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. If you can get 4 innings from Castillo over two appearances a week as opposed to 5 innings in a start, that’s a fine trade for where we’re at.
Gotty: Luis going from 97 to 94 between innings is concerning and makes me think he’d be best suited to a one-inning role if they go the bullpen route.
Evan: Honestly, if that’s the case, even better. Dan loves 1 inning stints, why complicate anything?
Kate: I’d rather them go to a six man rotation. I understand the argument against is your best pitchers pitch less but I think because there’s no extreme cliff between the front and back end of this rotation and I would argue even the best have been very inconsistent this year it doesn’t matter in the end and might be beneficial. It does force you to a shorthanded bullpen but I think that’s solvable with Criswell, or you have a starter be a swing guy, in this case Castillo.
Evan: I actually completely agree with the six-man. I’d do one thing or the other though. Not the other third thing they tried last night.
Nick: I’m okay with that, I suppose. I think that the idea of the piggyback is you’re able to get more out of your two guys, because they have to go less often, so instead of having two of them be, on average, just okay, for a total of ⅓ of the team’s starts, you can have them max out for one of the starts. I still think that it worked, and should be given a couple more times to be explored more fully. So actually I change my mind, I think six-man is actually the worst of all worlds, honestly.
Anders: I think if you were to get an honest answer from Jerry and Dan they’d say they don’t plan to run the six man or piggyback out forever and it would probably be more convenient for them if Castillo was good and Miller and/or Hancock was not (rather than the reverse). Castillo being bad and the others being good makes it so complicated.
Following game 43, I did some digging and saw that every full-season Cub team going back to 2003 had at least one five-game losing streak. So while this streak feels like it came out of nowhere, it’s not all that out of the ordinary. The good Cub teams in that stretch had a streak at least this long and the bad ones did too. So there isn’t anything particularly predictive based on a five-game skid. The 2003 Cubs that didn’t do that had a 1-5 rotation that was exceptional in comparison to the league and particularly 1-3. The only other team in my lifetime when the Cubs had a rotation that dominant 1-3 was the 2016 Cubs and they managed to have a five-game skid anyway.
This game was the first one that flashed me back in a bad way. This loss felt like something straight out of the 2021 Cub season when the final unraveling of the championship group happened. You’ll recall that team actually started pretty good, though not this year good. That team was 42-33 after 75 games and looked like they might be able to make one more run. Famously, that ended with the team no-hitter in L.A. And then they immediately lost 11 straight. The notorious game of that stretch was a game in Milwaukee where the Cubs jumped out early and then cratered and ended up losing 15-7.
This flashed me back there. Not just a sweep at the hands of the Brewers, but looking totally inept. The Brewers are good. Perhaps better than the Cubs. They had the better record last season and won a playoff series from the Cubs. They have the better record now and just swept the Cubs. Frankly, you have to be pretty stubborn to make a case for the Cubs being better. The Brewers are certainly in the collective heads of these Cubs right now. This was pretty ugly. But they aren’t as much better than the Cubs as they looked in this series. These three games looked about what it might look like if you played a couple of tune-up games against your Triple-A team.
I’m not particularly a fire and brimstone guy, an advocate of closed door or player-only meetings. I think fans have given almost mythical power through the years to things that probably happen more often than we have any idea of and probably don’t have a high correlation with forward looking success. That said, I do obviously believe that a good weight room pep talk by the usually quiet team leader will always lead to a World Championship. So quiet leader better pull everyone together when the team gets to the park on Friday and gets everyone back on the same page.
All sarcasm and joking aside, there was nothing fun or funny in this one. The Cubs got their tails kicked culminating a horrible series on the backs of three not so good series. A 3-6 road trip has now become nine losses in 12 games. Almost half of the cushion the team built up has evaporated. This team needs to apply the brakes, get back to basics and start making plays defensively that they should be making and moving the line offensively like they can.
Three Positives:
Trent Thornton retired all five batters he faced, striking out two.
Hoby Milner faced four batters and retired all of them, striking out one.
Ryan Rolison faced five batters and retired all of them, striking out one.
I’m positive I’ve not singled out three relievers on any game this year. The Cub bullpen had to throw six innings and they did so allowing only one run. That’s real good against a team like the Brewers. Four hits and two walks over six, we’d be ecstatic if a starter did that. So hat tip to the collective bullpen.
Game 50, May 20: Brewers 5, Cubs 0 (29-21)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
Billy Goat: Edward Cabrera (-.254). 3 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 R, 1 ER, 2 K (L 3-2)
Goat: Alex Bregman (-.098). 1-4
Kid: Carson Kelly (-.060). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: David Hamilton’s Little League homer with runners on first and second and one out in the second. It was legitimately a single and three base error. I’m not sure I’ve ever watched an outfielder slump before, but this has been jarring. (.233)
Cubs Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner led off the bottom of the first with a double. (.060)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 49 Winner: Nico Hoerner 105 of 125 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Michael Busch +16
Michael Conforto +14
Nico Hoerner +12.5
Shōta Imanaga +10
Trent Thornton +6
Ryan Rolison -8
Phil Maton -9
Matt Shaw -10
Dansby Swanson -11
Seiya Suzuki -17.5
Current Win Pace: 93.96 wins
Up Next: An off day Thursday that is very much needed. Then, they face the worst team (by record) that the Cubs have seen in quite some time. The Astros are 20-31 and managed only six runs in losing two of three to the Twins in Minnesota. Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.97, 50.2 IP) is due for the Cubs. He has lost his last two starts and was tagged for eight earned runs against the White Sox over five innings of work. He’s been significantly better at home (3.63 v 6.04) and during the day (4.15 v 6.20). So this is as good a spot for Jameson to bounce back as we can find.
As I write, the Astros haven’t yet announced their weekend rotation. But I believe this spot should fall to 26-year old Spencer Arrighetti (5-1, 1.50, 36 IP). Arrighetti would be making his seventh start of the season. The Astros have occasionally employed a six man rotation as they, like so many other teams, struggle with injuries to pitchers. The sixth-round pick of the Astros in 2021 (178th overall) out of Louisiana-Lafayette threw 7.1 scoreless innings against the Rangers last Friday. He allowed just one hit while walking four. He has 35 strikeouts in his 36 innings of work but has also walked 21. This is the kind of guy the Cubs should get to, despite his really good numbers. Some walks and a timely hit or two.
The Astros lineup has been fairly good. They rank ninth in team OPS (.725). That doesn’t drop against right-handed pitching (.728). It also doesn’t drop on the road (.748). So this is no pushover for Taillon. The problem for the Astros has been their pitching (last in ERA at 5.34). Their starting pitching has been a little less bad (5.02) but their bullpen is a mess (5.72).
This is the kind of series where the Cub strategy offensively should work. Patience and persistence. Death by a thousand paper cuts. Get their starters out, get into the pen. Their relievers still strike out a fair number of hitters, but they sport a number of unsightly ERAs and most of them allow more than a hit per inning. There are a few WHIPs north of 2.00.
WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 23: Carlos Carrasco #58 pitches during a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on April 23, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It wouldn’t be a day without a roster move, right? Right?
The #Braves today selected RHP Carlos Carrasco to the major league roster and optioned RHP Víctor Mederos to Triple-A Gwinnett.
Carlos Carrasco returns to Atlanta for the third time this season. He pitched an inning in late April and was DFAed six days later, then re-added in early May, pitched another frame, and was DFAed the next day. And, after signing a minor league deal afterwards, he’s back again. He returns to a pretty good line across garnering six outs in the majors, and he’s also been carving up minor leaguers in Triple-A, but that’s not really surprising given his age and experience.
Victor Mederos threw two garbage time innings after Chris Sale fileted / flayed the Marlins. On the plus side, he went six up, six down. On the minus side, he had an 0/1 K/BB ratio in the process, leveraging a double play to face the minimum.
This is a pretty low-stakes move just to have a fresh arm in case tonight’s game is another blowout, but they can’t all be the giant roster mishigas that happened earlier this week (with Drake Baldwin to the Injured List and Aaron Bummer getting the boot), either.
The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins wrap up a four-game NL East set at loanDepot Park on Thursday, May 21, and I’ve got a pair of MLB picks for the series finale.
My top Braves vs. Marlins predictions call for Atlanta to eke out a low-scoring win over Miami tonight.
Who will win Braves vs Marlins today: Braves moneyline (-136)
Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider has allowed a single run on just four hits while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 27.3% hard-hit rate across his past two starts, and I’m anticipating him keeping the good times rolling against a ho-hum Miami Marlins lineup.
The Marlins rank 19th in wOBA against right-handed arms, and Miami also ranks 20th in both overall ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks.
Of course, Atlanta has been a force at the dish all season and ranks second in both runs per game and wOBA against righties.
Braves vs Marlins Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
In addition to Strider sliding back into elite form, Miami righty Sandy Alcantara has also been excellent this season and allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of 10 starts for a solid 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 3.31 xERA.
As a result, I’m anticipating the righty keeping the Atlanta bats off balance enough to keep this total Under the number Thursday night.
The Braves have dipped to just 4.5 runs per game with a 14th-ranked xwOBA over the past two weeks, after all.
Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 21-12, +10.68 units
Over/Under bets: 12-8, +3.37 units
Braves vs Marlins odds
Moneyline: Atlanta -140 | Miami +120
Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+125) | Miami +1.5 (-145)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Braves vs Marlins trend
The Atlanta Braves have won 35 of their last 50 away games (+21.75 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Marlins.
How to watch Braves vs Marlins and game info
Location
LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Date
Thursday, May 21, 2026
First pitch
6:40 p.m. ET
TV
BravesVision, Marlins.TV
Braves starting pitcher
Spencer Strider (1-0, 2.45 ERA)
Marlins starting pitcher
Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.53 ERA)
Braves vs Marlins latest injuries
Braves vs Marlins weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Dec 14, 2023; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers player Shohei Ohtani receives a Dodgers cap from president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman at an introductory press conference at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Let’s go back.
It’s August 1st, 2023. The Tampa Bay Rays just defeated the New York Yankees, 5-2, and improved to 66-44 on the season. It has been a golden season for Tampa Bay as they kicked off the campaign with a 13 game winning streak and took 20 of their first 23 games to effectively establish themselves as the favorites in the American League East.
Not to say there weren’t any bumps in the road as Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen both went down early with injuries that required season ending surgery.
Still the Rays enjoyed an incredible season from Yandy Diaz and breakout campaigns from Isaac Pardes and Josh Lowe. Randy Arozarena continued to show he was the model of consistency and Brandon Lowe showcased that he was the best offensive second baseman in baseball when healthy. Role players like Jose Siri, Luke Raley, and Harold Ramirez were quietly having tremendous years. Then you also had Wander Franco who was showing that he was a future MVP candidate.
Even with Rasmussen and Springs going down, the Rays pitching staff was extremely effective. Zach Eflin, the largest free agent signing in franchise history, was having a career year. Tyler Glasnow battled through an injury to be an ace. Shane McClanahan started the All Star game for the American League.
The Rays were all but locked into the playoffs.
So, back to August 1st:
It was the 2023 trade deadline and the Rays were looking to buy. It just so happened that Shohei Ohtani, one of the greatest players in baseball history, was possibly available. The Rays were interested.
The Rays would send top prospects Junior Caminero and Carson Williams to the Angels for Ohtani. The Rays were even willing to include more to seal the deal. At the time, Caminero and Williams were ranked 1-2 in the Rays system; Camerino was 5th on Baseball America’s top 100 while Williams was 22nd.
Entering play on August 1st, Ohtani was hitting .305/.407/.680 with 39 HR, registering a 186 wRC+ over 472 PA. That was just his offensive performance, on the mound, Ohtani had a 3.43 ERA | 4.13 FIP over 120.2 IP. The Rays would effectively be acquiring one of the best hitters and pitchers in the game, four months of him was worth emptying the farm.
It was a deal that would have vaulted the Rays from playoff hopefuls to World Series favorites.
However, the Angels were 56-51. They were in 3rd place in the American League West, 4.5 games back. In the Wild Card chase, Los Angeles trailed the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox for the 3rd Wild Card spot. There was still a chance they could make the playoffs and possibly win a championship with Ohtani, a player whom they’d wasted the Hall of Fame career of thus far.
So Arte Moreno decided against Junior Caminero and Carson Williams and whatever other prospects the Rays were willing to include.
Moreno instead was going to have the Angels go for it.
In the week leading up to the deadline, the Angels made a small flurry of deals, trading away their top prospects, Edgar Quero and Ky Bush. Later on they traded away Jeremiah Jackson, Jake Madden, and Mason Albright for short term rental pieces to try and improve their roster.
So how did it all work out?
From August 1st through the end of the season, the Angels were the 2nd worst team in all of baseball, going 17-38. Los Angeles finished 4th in their division with a 73-89 record, 17 games behind the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, and 16 games back of a Wild Card spot. Shohei Ohtani dealt with separate injuries that ended his pitching season and only allowed him a handful of games offensively. He would leave that offseason and sign a $700M deal with the Dodgers just a few miles away.
The only thing the Angels received for Ohtani was the 74th overall pick in the 2024 draft due to Ohtani rejecting the team’s qualifying offer. With that pick, the Angels took Ryan Johnson, who they accelerated to the big leagues. However, he currently has a 10.17 ERA over 23 IP at the Major League level.
Meanwhile, the Rays suffered through some of the franchise’s worst moments that August as Shane McClanahan went down with an arm injury and wouldn’t pitch on a Major League mound again until April 2026.
Wander Franco, one of the best performing players in franchise history and locked into a 10-year deal, would be placed on administrative leave after accusations popped up of him being involved with a minor. Over the years, Franco has formally been arrested, charged, tried, and tried against for the crimes of which is he is accused and has not been on the Rays active roster since early August, 2023.
Despite losing two of their top performers, the Rays still won 99 games and made the playoffs as the top Wild Card team. Unfortunately, the team was a shell of it’s regular season form as they were without Brandon Lowe and were relying on untested prospects to the carry the team. Unfortunately, Jonathan Aranda, Curtis Mead, and Junior Caminero were overmatched and the Rays fell easily to the Texas Rangers.
If the Rays had Shohei Ohtani, the Series or the season may have played out differently. But given his lack of playing time down the stretch, the difference could have lacked the desired impact, short of a contract extension being signed with the club.
In the years since, Junior Caminero has developed into one of the most prolific power hitters in all of baseball. Since the start of the 2025 season, Caminero is hitting .265/.322/.529 with 58 HR, the 5th most in baseball over that stretch. The 23-year old can also be seen leading the celebration whenever another teammate succeeds as he is often at the front of the line to greet players coming back to the dugout after scoring a run. In the community, Caminero often visits local youth baseball leagues to be the highlight of a young player’s day. He has become exactly the player you want representing your team.
The real lesson here should not be about winners or losers, but instead show you that the Rays are always willing to do what it takes to compete, whether that means going all in for the right trade piece, or adapting on the field strategies to meet the needs of a roster.
Then again, if potentially the greatest player of all time is available for trade, it’s not exactly surprising for the Rays to try and make it happen, right?
WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 19, 2026: Max Holy #99 of the Houston Astros bats during the sixth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Miami Marlins at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 19, 2026 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.
AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (20-27) lost 13-1 (BOX SCORE)
Gordon started for Sugar Land but struggled allowing 8 runs over 3.1 innings. The pen allowed another 5 runs as the River Cats extended their lead. The offense was quiet night finally getting on the board in the 9th on a Biggio solo home run but that was it as Sugar Land fell 13-1.
Colton Gordon, LHP: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
J.P. France, RHP: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Jose Fleury, RHP: 2.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (19-22) won 2-1 (BOX SCORE)
The Hooks got the scoring started in the 2nd inning scoring a run on a Ferreras RBI double. Mayer got the start and was solid tossing 4 scoreless innings with 4 strikeouts. The RockHounds tied the game in the 5th but in the 6th inning, Holy connected on a solo home run to give the Hooks the lead. The rest of the pen was solid as they closed out the 2-1 win.
Railin Perez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (SAVE)
A+: Asheville Tourists (9-31) POSTPONED
A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (18-23) lost 3-2 (BOX SCORE)
Potter got the start and allowed 2 runs over 3.1 innings. The offense got on the board in the 5th inning on a Salas sac fly. The pen pitched well with scoreless outings from Cassedy and Mathiesen. Oakes tossed 4 innings in relief allowing 1 run over 4 innings while striking out 8. The offense got one run in the 9th on a Flores RBI single but that was it as the Woodpeckers fell 3-2.
Jacob Misiorowski has now gone four consecutive starts without allowing a run, meaning he hasn’t allowed a run since April 25. Over those four starts, he’s totaled 24 1/3 innings with nine hits allowed, five walks, and a whopping 37 strikeouts, increasing his league-leading total to 88 over just 57 innings.
He’s also lowered his season ERA to 1.90 to pair with a sterling 2.14 FIP.
Hunter Goodman
Corbin Carroll
Shea Langeliers
Spencer Strider
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 
COVERS INTEL: Braves lefty Spencer Strider has a 
