Category: Baseball

That the Red Sox have climbed out of the Grand Canyon-sized hold they dug themselves over the first three months of the season is remarkable enough, that they’ve done it without any contributions from the most talented hitter on their roster is shocking. Alas, they better hope they can keep it going without Roman Anthony because, somehow, he is still not anywhere close to returning. Anthony, who was sent to Fort Myers recently to continue to rehab, is still unable to swing a bat. “We’re not going to resume hitting if there’s still discomfort in the hand,” said Chad Tracy. “That’s a big piece of our lineup. It would be great to get him back. The whole point is we don’t want our player, that player, to play injured, especially when it comes to swinging the bat.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Of course, we all know the explanation for how they’ve been able to put this streak together without a bat like Anthony’s in the lineup: starting pitching. “Over the first 11 wins [of the streak], the team allowed just 17 runs — the fewest its allowed in any 11-game stretch in one season since Babe Ruth was part of the rotation in 1918.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

So it’s arguably been the best run of pitching the Sox have had since Babe Ruth, whose name usually isn’t brought up in a positive way by Sox fans. Neither is the year 1948, which famously did not end well for the Sox, but that’s how long you have to go to match the 13-game win streak. (Steve Buckley, The Athletic)

Of course there have been plenty of contributions from the lineup as well, particularly from guys like Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, and Caleb Durbin. Contreras, in particular is bringing the energy. “I don’t want them to start saying, like shouting, ‘Sell the team!’ I don’t like that,” Contreras said. “I take that personally, but they’re passionate about it. But I’m really proud of the team, of my team. Really proud of the work we’ve done. Really proud because of the way we started, how we are right now. And I know there’s a lot of games ahead, but they make me proud.” (Trevor Hass, Boston.com)

But, believe it nor not, the Red Sox reportedly have not yet decided to buy at the trade deadline: “For now, their plans are fluid. Boston isn’t discounting pursuing help before Aug. 3. The Red Sox also know that, for an entire half of the season, they personified mediocrity and that 15 games does not a season make. So, like many others, they’re weighing their options, knowing that if they stumble, they can pivot into dump mode and make a killing…” (Jeff Passan, ESPN)

Good morning.

Evan Grant writes that the Texas Rangers suffered through mental mistakes that led to a series loss in Atlanta yesterday.

Kennedi Landry has some takeaways from Texas’ series finale defeat, which in addition to defensive miscues, included pitching miscues and batting miscues.

Grant notes that the Rangers are still deciding what’s next for their two rehabbing former rotation members with Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bradford still working their way back.

Zach Crizer writes that Chris Young is again in an awkward spot trying to figure out how much to commit at the trade deadline with a flawed team leading a bad division.

Among his trade deadline desires, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden would like to see Young and the Rangers trade for Luis Arraez.

MLB dot com’s Rob Terranova notes that returning top prospect Sebastian Walcott smacked his first home run of the season for Double-A Frisco.

And, ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle checks out some of the most famous and notable trade trees which includes the franchise-altering Mark Teixeira trade.

Have a nice day!

It’s been a crazy sophomore season for Drake Baldwin so far.

Up until he suffered an oblique injury in mid-May, he had a .401 wOBA (154 wRC+) and .418 xwOBA — pretty bonkers numbers. Like, we knew he was good from 2025, when he had a .350ish wOBA/xwOBA (125 wRC+), but to come out swinging well above that? I’m hard-pressed to describe it in any other way but “wow.”

The oblique injury kept him out for a month. He played in literally one rehab game before the Braves decided that their catching situation in his absence was so bad that there was no way he could be any worse while getting back up to speed. In a very immediate sense, they were proven right, as Baldwin homered on the fifth pitch of his post-activation PA. But, in anything but a very immediate sense, they were proven wrong-ish. In his first 12 games back, which included that leadoff homer, Baldwin put together a .105 wOBA and .178 xwOBA (-44 wRC+, and yes, that’s a negative). Nearly everything was out of whack: his walk rate was just two percent and his strikeout rate was 44 percent (compared to 11 percent and 20 percent, respectively, pre-injury); his exit velocity was down 10 mph and his hard-hit rate was about halved. His bat speed was more or less unchanged, though a bunch of other more granular swing metrics were off-kilter. Basically, it didn’t necessarily seem that he was having lingering physical issues, but he was clearly off in a way we hadn’t seen.

As the calendar flipped to July, though, things began to change again. On July 1, Baldwin had a hit and two walks. It was his first day with either a wOBA or xwOBA over .300 since his leadoff homer in his first game back. He had an o-fer a couple of days later, but up through the All-Star Break, he seemed very back: .410 xwOBA, a 13 percent walk rate, and a strikeout rate that had fallen all the way down to nine percent. The only thing not gelling was that he was massively underhitting his xwOBA (.340 wOBA), which will happen in a 12-game sample.

And then, we got the series against the Rangers. In Game One, he had three hits, including a homer, and also drew a walk. It was his third-highest xwOBA game of the season so far, and fifth-highest wOBA game. In Game Two, he had a couple of singles. And then came Game Three, the best full* game of his career so far: three singles, two homers, no outs at the plate. It was the second multi-homer game of his career. Oh, and he stole a base. His season line, which had dipped to a .345 wOBA (117 wRC+) and .372 xwOBA after his June struggles is now back to a .368 wOBA (132 wRC+) and .391 xwOBA.

* I say “full” because last year, he had a game where he didn’t play until the eighth, when he pinch-hit, drew a walk, and then hit a game-winning, two-out, two-run homer off Jose Alvarado the next inning. Technically, a walk and a homer is a better line on a rate basis than three singles and two homers.

So, how back is Drake Baldwin? Better than ever? All the way back? Wait-and-see? The scars of June are too deep to believe?

The Orioles have saved their season (for the time being) with this current seven-game winning streak. The wins haven’t all been pretty, but they’ve gotten the job done and climbed the team back into the thick of the AL playoff race. It has also set the stage for a massive midweek series in Boston that has the potential to put the O’s back above .500 for the first time since Opening Day and in sole possession of a wild card spot.

Throughout this streak there have been plenty of oddities that small sample baseball is known for. Are they sustainable? Almost certainly not. But they are fun to examine to help explain why the stars may have aligned and allowed this imperfect Orioles squad string together so many wins in a row.

1.80 team ERA

While the offense has been solid during this win streak, it’s the pitching staff that deserves most of the credit for making it happen. They haven’t allowed more than three runs in any one game, and have given up two or fewer runs in six of the seven wins.

Their 1.80 team ERA in that stretch is the third-best in baseball. Only the even hotter Red Sox (1.73 ERA) and the surprising White Sox (1.31 ERA) have been better since July 9. By the way, the Orioles 2.95 FIP is better than both of them, second in the league in that time.

Of course, you can dissect that ERA number a few different ways to find positives and negatives. For example, their 3.42 xERA in that same span is more pedestrian, though still good. Or how the starters seem to be legitimately good (2.38 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 3.12 xFIP), while the relievers are making it work with smoke and mirrors (0.77 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 4.49 xFIP).

But you can’t argue that the outcomes have been exactly what you want, and perhaps the Orioles were due a bit of good luck from the baseball gods after enduring a some undue struggles for much of the year.

Gunnar Henderson’s 61 wRC+

The struggles of the Orioles star this season are nothing new. He’s had a few nice moments here and there, but has failed to sustain any sort of positive momentum. The month of July has been his absolute low point.

Since the calendar flipped, Henderson is hitting .170/.237/.226 with one home run, 14 strikeouts, and three walks. Things haven’t been much better when you trim the timeline down to just the Orioles’ seven-game win streak. In that time he is slashing .207/.258/.310 with the one home run, 10 strikeouts, and zero walks.

It feels like the Orioles are banging their head against the wall with Henderson. Despite his struggles, he continues to occupy a prominent spot in the batting order and be given the MVP-type treatment. It’s understandable given his track record prior to this season. But the results haven’t improved, and it feels like something a bit more drastic could help.

That’s not to say Henderson should ride the bench. He’s played a nice defensive shortstop this season, and is an important base running threat for the team. He also has not been unplayable bad at the plate or anything, but his 91 wRC+ for the season does suggest he has been below average. Hitting a bit lower in the order doesn’t feel unreasonable at this point.

What’s relevant to this blog, however, is that despite their star mightily struggle with the stick, the Orioles are winning games. They’ve scored 34 runs in these seven games, which is just below the five runs per game threshold that good teams are aiming for. If they could get just a bit more from someone that is supposed to be leading them, the ceiling is there for this team to go on an even longer run of winning baseball.

Coby Mayo’s .714 slugging percentage

Maybe the Orioles don’t have a future all-star third baseman on their hands with Coby Mayo, but (for 2026, anyway) they have one of the league’s absolute best hitters against left-handed pitching. That’s something they can work with.

O’s manager Craig Albernaz has leaned more and more into using Mayo almost exclusively against southpaws. It’s working. Mayo’s 204 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this year is the best mark in baseball. His 10 home runs off of them are second in MLB, behind just Kyle Schwarber, who has nearly double the plate appearances and only two more homers.

Mayo is 4-for-14 during the Orioles win streak with five strikeouts and no walks. Two of his four hits have left the park. His latest round-tripper came on Sunday, when he took the left-handed Bryan King deep for his 13th total homer of the year. The sort of all-or-nothing approach was en vogue a few seasons ago, but it can still work at times, as Mayo is proving.

Ideally, Mayo would be an everyday option that, despite some defensive concerns, you would be confident playing against any pitcher. But that isn’t the reality, at least not right now for the 24-year-old. For much of the season, the Orioles refused to acknowledge that, playing him at third base most days regardless of the matchup. But now, when they need as many wins as possible from the rest of their schedule, they have relented and moved him to a platoon role. The team is better for it.

Four different pitchers have recorded saves

The addition of Ryan Helsley at the back of the Orioles bullpen has not gone as anyone would have hoped. The hard-throwing righty is on his second IL stint of the season for elbow discomfort. That has limited him to just 15.1 innings this season and a 4.11 ERA. For now, the team is unclear on if he will pitch again this season. On Sunday, he was moved to the 60-day IL, which will keep him on the shelf through the end of August at least.

In his absence, it seems as though Albernaz won’t be naming a replacement closer. No one on the current roster really fits the role anyway. Andrew Kittredge is the veteran of the group, but his season has been a bit bumpy. Tyler Wells has closer experience, though it came several years ago. And a few other guys may have “closer stuff,” but it’s always a risk to put that kind of pressure on an unproven arm.

The Orioles have had five save situations during this seven-game win streak. Four different pitchers have been called on in those scenarios. Kittredge has two of them, and then Wells, Grant Wolfram, and Cam Sanders have one each. Sanders was optioned on Sunday anyway. That’s a good illustration of just how improvised the current ninth inning situation really is.

If the Orioles do decide to buy at the deadline, bullpen has to be at the top of their wishlist. What’s working right now probably won’t a few weeks from now. Maybe they don’t have to outbid everyone for the top closer on the market, but they will certainly have to be aggressive. Helsley’s return is no guarantee, and he can’t be relied upon anyway. Maybe Félix Bautista will make it back on a mound by season’s end, but the team would have to be careful with him. Adding an arm with ninth-inning chops will need to be a priority.

It’s the topic of the day around the Phillies universe, considering we know how well the plan currently has been going. Alan Rangel currently is the fifth starter for the Phillies and has not performed well. His having to have been in the rotation was a result of Andrew Painter struggling so much this season in the major leagues and now the team is in a bind.

Can they survive a summer playoff push with their current pitching plan in place for the fifth starter’s job?

It’s starting to look more and more like Aaron Nola can give them serviceable starts out of the four spot. He’s been pretty good his last three starts, albeit against some anemic offenses. Still, it’s better than what he has given them, which felt like an automatic loss each time he toed the rubber. Maybe the team feels they are fine with whatever Rangel can give them until Painter is (maybe?) able to fix himself in Lehigh Valley? Maybe they have a deal lined up to get another LAIM for the backend of the rotation.

Who knows!

We have now come back from the break. These last couple of labs have come from the luxury of the cruise ship, so the numbers are all pre-All Star break numbers. We have been looking at offense position by position to get a better feel of where the Astros could use some help. We are actually closer to the end than we are to the beginning. We only have the outfield left to go after today.

It’s at this time that it is time to take a step back. Why do we rely on numbers in the first place? Crime experts will tell us that eyewitness testimony is the least reliable testimony there is. Our emotions and personal psychology usually colors what we see or think we see. One of the more infuriating statements that is often said is that people know a Hall of Famer when they see one. We don’t always and we also think we know good and bad baseball based on what we see, but that is sometimes wrong too.

Stat geeks and analysts have been accused of not understanding the game because we rely on numbers. It would be like questioning scientists because they feel a need to conduct experiments and use the scientific method. Knowing something and proving something can be two entirely different things. We know Jeremy Pena is a good baseball player. How good is he? Well, we need numbers for that and there is no better number offensively than bases per out.

Bases per out is calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by total outs. Baseball-reference.com keeps all of the components, but unfortunately it has to be kept by hand until a stat source chooses to feature it. The major league average for BPO is .676, but as we have seen, that number is not particularly relevant when we are looking at individual positions. First base and third base have come in above that while catcher and second have come in well below it. We are looking at regulars in the American League with at least 120 outs.

	Outs	TB	BB	SB	HBP	BPO
Kevin McGonigle	250	147	59	11	3	.880
Bobby Witt	268	163	39	30	1	.869
Jeremy Pena	138	83	15	8	4	.797
Zach Neto	291	168	44	12	7	.794
Colson Montgomery	268	159	31	1	9	.746
Brayan Rocchio	243	125	27	15	7	.716
Ezequiel Duran	222	129	22	7	1	.716
Jose Caballero	222	107	16	22	5	.676
J.P. Crawford	229	97	44	1	5	.642
Gunnar Henderson	318	157	34	7	6	.642
Corey Seager	161	70	28	1	2	.627
Jacob Wilson	164	86	11	2	0	.604
Taylor Walls	187	63	31	13	2	.583
Brooks Lee	264	118	27	5	2	.576
Andres Gimenez	232	103	11	10	8	.569
Marcelo Mayer	168	64	16	3	3	.512
Zach McKinstry	185	64	25	1	0	.486
Mean	224.1	111.9	28.2	8.8	3.8	.682
Median	229	107	27	7	3	.642

When you do enough of these data sets you start to see patterns. One of those patterns is what I would label as the “law of success.” This one is simple and self-explanatory. Teams will tend to play players that are more successful. So, you notice that the majority of the players with the most outs also have done the most damage per out. Pena would be one of those guys too if it weren’t for his injuries this year. It makes perfect sense. If you fail repeatedly then you won’t play for very long.

This is why any talk of a player like say Derek Jeter being the worst fielder in the Hall of Fame is automatically hyperbolic. It can be a true statement, but by definition the Jose Offermans of the world don’t get employed for very long when they demonstrate repeated failure (as a fielder). It is relatively rare to see a team continually employ someone that is routinely failing and when we see it we stand up and take notice as we would with Gunnar Henderson.

Pena is decidedly above average by any measure. He is 17 percent better than the average starting American League shortstop and 24 percent better than the median starting shortstop in the American League. I’d say that is significantly above average. Obviously, we would have to look at the underlying numbers to see if that trend will continue, but this has been the Pena we have seen for the last year in a half.

So, on days when Pena is leading off, the Astros have four players in their lineup that significantly above the major league average in bases per out and two of them are significantly above their positional average. We haven’t profiled Yordan Alvarez yet, but he is likely to have the highest BPO in baseball. While Yainer Diaz and Jose Altuve were not good overall, they were the median at their positions. That of course leaves the outfield where we will be going next time.

This all brings us back to where we thought we were in the first place. The Astros need to find some outfield production and fast. Still, we will wait to see the numbers before declaring a four alarm emergency. So far, the Astros look like they have an above average offense. It will be interesting to see if that is where they end up in the end.

Braves 8, Rangers 5

• That didn’t go the way we were hoping.
• Nathan Eovaldi was allowing homers and couldn’t go deep into the game, and the bullpen combined with some poor defensive decision making to allow a big inning late.
• For all the angst about the offense, its the pitching that is particularly problematic right now.
• Nathan Eovaldi gave up 10 home runs in 130 innings all of 2025. So far this season, in 115 innings, he’s allowed 22 home runs. If you want to know how he’s gone from a 1.73 ERA last year to a 4.21 ERA this year, well, that goes a long way.
• Eovaldi’s career high in home runs allowed is 23, and hopefully he ends up breaking that mark, because otherwise it would mean he’s out for a lengthy period of time.
• Evan Carter was lifted for a pinch hitter in the top of the sixth, rather earlier than would be ideal. That left Cam Cauley playing center field the rest of the way, and trying to make a play on the Matt Olson double that started things off in the seventh, the hit where all the trouble began.
• I don’t know that Cauley should have made a play on that ball, or that Carter would have…but its one of those things where I’m wondering if Carter in the game means that’s an out rather than a double, and potentially all the rest of the nonsense from that inning doesn’t happen.
• Wyatt Langford, at least, is continuing to rake, falling a triple shy of a cycle. The Rangers had 11 hits in the game, with ten of them coming from four players — Langford, Joc Pederson, Nicky Lopez and Jake Burger.
• Going on the road and playing a good team, the expectation is that you’re going to lose two of three. The Rangers lost two of three. Expectations were met.
• It doesn’t mean it isn’t disappointing, though.
• Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball topped out at 95.1 mph, averaging 93.7 mph. Robby Ahlstrom reached 95.6 mph on his sinker. Cole Winn’s fastball touched 96.0 mph. Tyler Alexander hit 92.2 mph with his fastball. Peyton Gray maxed out at 94.0 mph with his fastball. Ben Peoples’ fastball topped out at 96.6 mph.
• Jake Burger had a 107.8 mph single and a 101.7 mph single. Wyatt Langford had a 105.7 mph double, a 105.2 mph home run, and a 101.1 mph single. Nicky Lopez had a 101.6 mph single. Kyle Higashioka had a 100.6 mph single. Joc Pederson had a 100.2 mph double.
• Back to Arlington, and hopefully, a productive homestand.

The Mets open a three-game series against the Brewers in Milwaukee on Monday night at 7:40 on SNY.

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Mets Notes

• Francisco Alvarez is hitting .269/.338/.567 (.905 OPS) with six homers and two doubles in 74 plate appearances since June 23
• Juan Soto is leading the National League with a .409 OBP and .962 OPS
• A.J. Ewing is hitting .316/.372/.557 (.929 OPS) with five homers and four doubles in his last 86 plate appearances 

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Today's Lineups

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Meet the Mets

In the deciding game of a weekend series with Philadelphia, Nolan McLean struck out ten and brought his ERA that little bit closer to 3.00 as eight different Mets got hits. All of this to say, it was good.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, Faith and Fear in Flushing, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post

In the spirit of looking for things to be excited about in a lost season, Francisco Lindor either had a really nice Sunday or he’s about to start a hot streak.

For Francisco Lindor himself, he leans towards the start of a hot streak.

With Juan Soto needing to be the designated hitter some days and Jorge Polanco strictly back on a DH basis, the facts of life are that Polanco is going to be frequently squeezed out of the lineup.

In a Q&A, Christian Scott described coming back from the nadir of his career and the desire to have a meal with Napoleon.

The Chicago White Sox are reportedly interested in the services of Clay Holmes.

Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park finally added its meat and bun to Steve Gelbs’ illustrious frank-o-meter.

Freddy Peralta will make his return to Milwaukee today and face off against the best pitcher on the planet in Jacob Misiorowski.

Around the National League East

At the top of the division, Austin Riley and Drake Baldwin combined for four home runs as the Braves handed the Rangers an 8-6 loss in the Atlanta finale.

The Marlins held a lead over the Brewers for exactly 8.1 innings of Sunday’s contest, but that last 0.2 was the real rascal of the bunch as William Contreras hit a three-run walkoff home run and suddenly the Marlins lost 3-1.

Staying away from either scoring or giving up 15 or more runs for the first time in the second half, the Nationals and Foster Griffin won a relatively calm 5-2 game against the Athletics.

With a pair of pitchers transfered to the injured lists, the Nationals signed lefty Matt Crook to a deal and immediately activated him.

Around Major League Baseball

Shohei Ohtani won’t be pitching on Wednesday or for a little bit of time after that as he continues his recovery from lingering left knee soreness.

For the first time since Ted Williams was 29 years old and starting games, the Boston Red Sox have won 13 consecutive games.

Already in town for the 92-93 World Series celebration that took place over the weekend, former Blue Jays reliever Duane Ward died on Saturday prior to the festivities at the stadium.

Two playoff complete games later, Yoshinobu Yamamoto finally threw the first complete game of his career that will actually show up in his final tally of statistics.

Not staying away for long, 11 months after being acquired by the Cubs near the end of last season, Aaron Civale was once again acquired by the Cubs, this time in a trade from the Athletics.

On Sunday morning, the Astros made a mildly surprising move by designating former Toronto flamethrower Nate Pearson for assignment.

The road to every trade deadline has the buyers and the sellers who are obvious, but the true fun comes in the teams on either edge of the dreaded bubble.

This Date in Mets History

We are wishing Ty Kelly a happy 38th birthday with strength and power like you’ve never seen before in history, frankly, ever.

After an offseason in which the Pirates made a handful of moves to beef up a roster that went 71-91 in 2025, Pittsburgh saw an up-and-down first half. They now come to the Bronx for their only series of the season against the Yankees, looking to make up some ground in the tight NL Central race. Outside of the last-place Reds, every team in their division is above the .500 mark, including the Bucs, who are 52-48 and 10.5 games out of first but in possession of a Wild Card spot. They have the second-longest playoff drought in baseball, as they haven’t made it to October since getting blanked by the Cubs in the 2015 NL Wild Card Game.

While the Yankees split a doubleheader against the Los Angeles Dodgers to finish out their series, Pirates ace Paul Skenes posted a strong seven innings with eight strikeouts and only one earned run on seven hits in a 7-1 victory against Cleveland. And while Yankees fans won’t be able to see Skenes in person this season, they’ll still get plenty of exciting action against a Pirates team that’s looking to continue its fight toward the postseason.

So let’s take a look at what’s in store.

Monday – Ryan Weathers vs. Braxton Ashcraft (7:05 pm Eastern)

Following a relatively decent start to the season, it feels as if Ryan Weathers has fallen back down to Earth. He will take the mound in the opener of the three-game set against the Pirates, hoping to get back on track after seeing his team lose in three of his last games pitched. His last outing against the Nationals was a step in the right direction, as he pitched 5.1 innings and, despite allowing six hits, he only allowed one run. He also registered six strikeouts on 91 pitches.

Weathers sits with a 3-7 record and a 4.15 ERA, just slightly worse than the Yankees pitcher taking the mound the next night (which we’ll talk about in a moment), but against a Pirates team that has struggled against left-handed pitchers on the road, he may have the chance to get back to the level he wants to be at now that the second-half of the season is underway.

On the other side of the equation is Braxton Ashcraft, who made headlines around the Pirates and MLB for his first career All-Star appearance this year in Philadelphia for the NL. He replaced Skenes after the ace was voted to the team, but was unable to pitch following an outing against the Brewers the Sunday before the All-Star festivities. The 2018 second-round prep pick has earned recognition in his own right, though.

Playing in his first full MLB season, Ashcraft, 26, has started 19 games and has pitched 113.1 innings. Along with his 128 strikeouts, he has a 9-3 record entering his first start following his appearance in Philadelphia and a 3.49 ERA. And although his last start at Milwaukee ended in a no-decision, the four prior to that were all wins for the Bucs. Monday will be the first time Ashcraft will face the Yankees in his career, and it’s surely a relief to not have to face Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton in the process.

Tuesday — Will Warren vs. Bubba Chandler (7:05 pm Eastern)

Will Warren and Weathers have been somewhat indistinguishable at the back end of the rotation. However, both of them continue to be as important now as ever, with the Yankees waiting on the return of the two star left-handers, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón.

Like Weathers, the last five outings for Warren have been underwhelming. Three of them have been losses, and the other two were no-decisions. In fact, the last time Warren walked away from a game with a win to his name was all the way back on May 31st after six strong innings against the A’s (the same day as the 13-run inning). He went 4-1 in May, and that was his third win in a row, butit’s been downhill since June, with the Yankees going 3-4 in his last seven games.

Additionally, the last time Warren went six or more innings was that game against the A’s. The closest he got was in two straight starts — the first against Cincinnati and the second against the Red Sox — where he pitched 5.2 innings across 90 pitches each. But the start of the second half gives Warren a chance to begin somewhat anew and improve on his first-half numbers. However, he’ll have his work cut out for him on the other side of the equation.

The Pirates are going to throw out another one of their young guns who can throw absolute heat: Bubba Chandler. The 23-year-old right-hander averages 98.6 mph on his fastball, and he has another five pitches that he uses occasionally, but it’s more like a three-pitch mix than anything. The next-highest after his fastball, which sits at 47.9-percent usage, is his slider at 18.7 percent, and his changeup at just 16.9 percent. Chandler also has a sinker, a sweeper, and a curveball.

However, while he has the arsenal and the arm talent, Chandler’s first full MLB season hasn’t gone to plan. He has a 3-8 record, a 4.77 ERA, and 85 strikeouts over 94.1 innings pitched, good for a 92 ERA+. A huge problem for him has been walks, as he leads the entire league with 55 issued. So for the Yankees, if they want to help their starter out, discipline will be the key in the batter’s box.

Wednesday — Gerrit Cole vs. Mitch Keller (12:35 pm Eastern)

The final matchup between these two teams will be a Wednesday matinee with two of the team’s top-of-the-rotation starters taking the mound. For the Yankees, it’s Gerrit Cole, who, despite a great six-inning, eight-K performance against the Dodgers, had it overshadowed by a misplaced pitch to Max Muncy. In his last five starts, he has managed to pitch at least five innings, with his last two getting to six or over. However, four of his last five results and decisions have been losses.

After coming back from injury, Cole has had his ups and downs, as one would expect from an almost-36-year-old flamethrower. But despite a 3.93 ERA, the Yankees ace can certainly show his old form against his former club, and with the potential for a rubber match, there’s no better time. Interestingly, this will only be the third time in his career that Cole will face the team that drafted him with the first overall pick in 2011. He’s pitched 11 total innings and came out of those two games with a win and a 2.45 ERA. He’s tallied only seven strikeouts in those two appearances, but it’s been enough to get the job done.

As for the Pirates, it’s the right-hander Mitch Keller, who, after hearing plenty of trade rumors about him last season, has come out this season and outright struggled. In 19 games started, there hasn’t been much to write home about. A 6-7 record and a 5.14 ERA are the lowest on the team among qualified hurlers. His strikeout numbers have dropped to the second-lowest of his career, and it’s because his average fastball velocity has dropped to the lowest of his career as well.

Keller is looking for the second half of the season to start getting back on track; otherwise, things could look grim moving forward in the Steel City for the 30-year-old hurler. The 2023 All-Star is owed just over $38 million through the end of 2028.

Welcome to week 17 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!

1. Milwaukee Brewers (62-37); 3-0 this week; 99.2% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)

The Brewers swept the Marlins coming out of the break, as they completed a trio of come-from-behind victories with a pair of walk-offs.

William Contreras had the biggest hit of the weekend, as he launched a three-run walk-off homer in Sunday’s series finale, sending Milwaukee home with a 3-1 victory. Garrett Mitchell also had a big weekend, leading the team with five hits and driving in the winning run in Friday night’s walk-off win. Joey Ortiz had the only other homer, while the team combined for nine steals in 10 attempts, including a pair from Christian Yelich, Ortiz, and Jackson Chourio.

Shane Drohan had the longest start at six innings, allowing three runs and striking out nine in a winning performance. Robert Gasser and Logan Henderson had nearly identical lines in their starts, as each went five innings with one run allowed on three hits and no walks. The only difference was that Henderson struck out four while Gasser struck out five. Craig Yoho was the only bullpen arm to allow a run (and even he picked up his first career win with a shutout 10th inning on Friday), as Grant Anderson, Aaron Ashby, Trevor Megill, Chad Patrick, and Abner Uribe combined for 10 shutout innings and 14 strikeouts.

Milwaukee stays home this week as they’ll host the Mets and Rockies through next weekend.

2. Chicago Cubs (56-43); 2-1 this week; 79.6% chance to make postseason

The Cubs dropped their series opener against the Twins on Friday but bounced back to win the series with a pair of wins on Saturday and Sunday.

Alex Bregman and Michael Busch both homered this weekend, while Nico Hoerner led the team with eight hits in just 13 at-bats, driving in five. Pedro Ramírez and Seiya Suzuki added four hits each, with both picking up a pair of doubles.

Matthew Boyd worked six strong innings with one run allowed and four strikeouts, while Shota Imanaga turned in the best performance of the series with seven shutout frames, striking out four. Tyler Ferguson, Gavin Hollowell, Ryan Rolison, Trent Thornton, and Jacob Webb combined for 4 2/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts for the bullpen.

Chicago wraps up the homestand to begin the week with three games against the Tigers. After an off day on Thursday, they’ll visit the Pirates in Pittsburgh.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (52-48); 2-1 this week; 47.7% chance to make postseason

The Pirates visited Cleveland this weekend, taking two of three as they split a doubleheader on Saturday (after Friday’s game was canceled due to air quality) and won 7-1 on Sunday.

Esmerlyn Valdez continues to swing the bat like Babe Ruth, as he picked up three hits this week, all of the extra-base variety with a pair of homers and a double, driving home five. Nick Gonzales and Jacob Gonzalez both homered as well, with four other players adding three hits apiece.

Jared Jones and Paul Skenes both made strong starts, with Jones going five innings with one run allowed and nine strikeouts and Skenes allowing one run over seven innings with eight strikeouts. Mason Montgomery also worked as an opener for Khristian Curtis, with Curtis going five scoreless innings with four strikeouts. Isaac Mattson, Carmen Mlodzinski, Montgomery, Gregory Soto, and Yohan Ramírez all had scoreless weekends for the bullpen.

The Pirates now head to New York to face the Yankees before they return home to host the Cubs over the weekend.

4. St. Louis Cardinals (51-47); 1-2 this week; 27.3% chance to make postseason

The Cardinals dropped two of three in Phoenix this weekend, winning Friday’s series opener against the D-backs but dropping both Saturday and Sunday’s games.

Jimmy Crooks and JJ Wetherholt both homered this week for the Cards, with Alec Burleson leading the team with six hits and scoring four runs. José Fermín added four hits, and Jordan Walker picked up three hits, including a double.

Michael McGreevy had the lone quality start of the weekend, going 6 1/3 innings with two runs allowed (one earned) and five strikeouts. Justin Bruihl, Riley O’Brien, and Matt Svanson had a scoreless inning each in relief.

St. Louis will stay out west with a visit to the Angels to begin the week. They’ll then return home to host the D-backs for a makeup game on Thursday before welcoming the Reds to town.

5. Cincinnati Reds (45-53); 2-1 this week; 1.2% chance to make postseason

The Reds visited Colorado this weekend, taking two of three against the Rockies.

It was a homer-heavy weekend in the high altitude of Denver, as the Reds had 10 homers as a team, including a pair from Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson and Jose Trevino. Elly De La Cruz added a homer and led the team with six hits, while Sal Stewart also homered and led the team with five RBIs.

Brady Singer and Hunter Greene both earned wins with quality starts, as Singer went seven innings with two runs allowed and six strikeouts, and Greene went six innings with three runs allowed and seven strikeouts. Tejay Antone, Brock Burke, Julian Garcia, and Pierce Johnson combined for 6 2/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts for the bullpen.

Cincinnati will continue the road trip with visits to Seattle and St. Louis through the coming weekend.

The original plan was for Shohei Ohtani to start on Wednesday’s series finale in Philadelphia, putting him in the sixth rotation spot after the break, maximizing his time off from pitching to rest his left knee, while also pitching directly before an off day. But those plans changed over the weekend, after Ohtani felt discomfort while throwing off flat ground on Friday.

From Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

“He was on the schedule when we broke for the All-Star break,” Roberts said. “And then it was more of the training staff talking to him about, ‘Hey, coming out of the break, how does Wednesday look? How do you feel? If you don’t feel 100 percent, we have the opportunity to just kick the can.’

As with Blake Snell, who has already started a rehab assignment, and Tyler Glasnow, the goal for the Dodgers is to have them all ready to pitch in October. But unlike the others, Ohtani is also the team’s best hitter. From Katie Woo at The Athletic:

“A lot of it is where we’re at and how we’ve put ourselves in a good spot,” Roberts explained. “Could he probably do it? Sure. But right now, the benefits just don’t seem to outweigh the cost at this time of the season. So I think we still have plenty of time to get him to a good spot to then pitch.

“I think that’s why we’re trying to be a little bit more on the proactive side … so we don’t have to worry about it throughout the end of the season.”

Ohtani this season has a 1.79 ERA in 14 starts with 95 strikeouts against 26 walks. Among major league pitchers with at least 80 innings this season, he ranks second in ERA and third in xERA (2.70). Ohtani’s last pitching start was July 3 against the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium.

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Manager Dave Roberts had understandably high praise for ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto after Sunday afternoon’s complete-game win at Yankee Stadium, resting the relievers directly ahead of the nightcap’s bullpen game. From Maddie Lee of the Los Angeles Times:

“In one game, it’s great,” Roberts said. “But the exponential effect that it has on everybody else, it is huge, and it’s hard to really nail down how valuable that is.

“If you have a guy that not only puts you in a position to win a game, but also saves a lot of arms, that goes hand-in-hand with the top end of the rotation guy.”

Yamamoto leads the majors this season averaging 6.65 innings per start.

Triple-A: Nashville Sounds (MIL) 4, Norfolk Tides 0

Trey Gibson had the start today and pitched well despite taking the a loss. He allowed a run on a walk and a triple, but covered four innings and allowed just the one run. The game remained 1-0 until the seventh inning, when three runs came in against Hans Crouse before Crouse had retired a single hitter. On the other hand, Yaramil Hiraldo, Nick Raquet, Yaqui Rivera and Enoli Paredes all had scoreless outings.

Norfolk had just two hits on the day, a single apiece from Silas Ardoin and Enrique Bradfield Jr.

Box Score

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats (COL) 5, Chesapeake Baysox 4

Down 3-1 going into the bottom of the seventh, the Baysox stormed back with four late runs, their second comeback win of the weekend

Brandon Butterworth got the scoring going for Chesapeake with a home run in the fourth. In the seventh, Willy Vasquez knocked in a two-run double. In the bottom of the eighth, Thomas Sosa hit a two-run homer, scoring himself and Aron Estrada.

Luis de León pitched well, with 4.2 one-run innings where he struck out five. He was followed by Zane Barnhart, who allowed two runs in under an inning. Micah Ashman threw 1.2 scoreless, Christian Heberholz allowed one run, and Jeisson Cabrera got the save.

Box Score

High-A: Frederick Keys 17, Greenville Drive (BOS) 6

A day after scoring 12 runs on 20 hits on in Greenville, Frederick blasted six home runs in a 17-run, 25-hit donnybrook. This was a lot of hits. RJ Austin went 4-for-6. Ike Irish 4-for-7 with two home runs and six RBI. Creed Willems, in High-A rehabbing, finished 3-for-6 with a homer. Wehiwa Aloy went 4-for-5. I’ll put it this way: the top six Keys hitters each had two or more hits, and three each had four.

Starter J.T. Quinn gave up four runs in 2.2 innings on a three-run home run. Following Quinn, the bullpen pitched a solid 6.1 one-run innings. That comprised Todd Kniebbe, Riley Cooper, Cohen Achen, Trent Turzenski, Chandler Marsh, and Braeden Sloan.

Box Score

Low-A: Salem RidgeYaks (BOS) 4, Delmarva Shorebirds 2

Starting pitcher Dalton Neuschwander got jumped on early, allowing three runs on a first-inning home run. He’d pitch into the fourth and allow one run after that.

The Shorebirds got two runs back in the second inning on a Junior Aybar RBI single and a double steal!

It was a three-hit day for Perez and a two-hit day for Mejía. DJ Layton hit a double. Jordan Sanchez, Andrés Nolaya, Elvin García, Miguel Rodríguez and Aybar each had a one-hit day.

The pitchers who followed Neuschwander kept it together: Adrian Heredia threw 2.1 scoreless innings. Brendan Parks threw 1.1 scoreless, and Zac Lampton each threw an inning-plus without letting in a run.

Box Score

Today’s Schedule

• There are no scheduled games for today.

Jaylon Thompson writes about the blowout loss on Sunday.

“It stinks for everybody to be out there in that situation,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “You never want to be in that spot (late in the game), but that’s the spot we put ourselves in. And you know, with seven more games before an off-day, you’ve got to get a position player out there to keep people fresh to pitch tomorrow.”

Anne Rogers talks to J.J. Picollo about the upcoming trade deadline.

There will be interest in relievers John Schreiber, Daniel Lynch IV and Alex Lange, too. But the most intriguing part of this Deadline will be what the Royals decide to do with their two veteran starters, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, the latter of whom is probably the Royals’ best trade chip this year. But trading them away is not so simple.

“Those [are] two guys we’re going to count on,” Picollo said. “We already have needs in our rotation. We’ll be open-minded to anything. But we have to be very, very pointed in what we want to get out of any one of those two. And also, they made a commitment to us. I think that’s important to the morale of the team. Where you have two guys that have done what they’ve done in their careers, and they want to be here.

“With that being said, teams want to talk about them — it’s never going to hurt to at least listen. I think those guys understand that.”

Salvador Perez hit career home run #315, two shy of George Brett’s franchise record.

“You know, every day I hear somebody tell me about that,” Perez said of the record. “So it’s hard not to think about it. I don’t try to think about it when I’m hitting. I don’t like to put too much pressure on myself, you know.

“I try to see the ball and hit the ball. When it happens, I’m happy. Hopefully, I can do that quick.”

Stephen Kolek had an injury setback in his rehab start and will hit the Injured List.

“He said he didn’t feel great playing catch, but then as he got on the mound, he felt better,” manager Matt Quatraro said Sunday morning. “The first couple of innings were pretty good. In the third inning, he felt more aggressive discomfort. They thought it was best to get him out of there.”

Royals first round pick Zion Rose met with the media this weekend.

“I’m grateful to be here, with an organization that cares about their players, cares about their development, cares about the team,” Rose said. “A city that backs their team. I’m excited to get going.”

Jaylon Thompson has more.

“I hate losing and I hate losing against people,” Rose said. “And I feel like, in this game, everything is a competition.

“It’s so great because it’s a team game, but in the box it’s one on one. So it’s me versus the pitcher. You know, I could care less who’s up there (pitching), and that’s the great part about it.

#Royals signed first round draft pick OF Zion Rose to a $5,809,574 signing bonus, sources told https://t.co/Ivs9s9EIaV.

Slot value for the No. 6 pick was $7,746,100.

Team is working on getting the rest of their picks signed and physicals passed in AZ ahead of July 27 deadline.

— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) July 18, 2026

Freddy Fermin received a warm welcome in his return to Kauffman Stadium.

The Orioles sign pitcher Kyle Bradish to a five-year, $90 million extension.

The Cubs acquire pitcher Aaron Civale from the Athletics.

The Red Sox extend their winning streak to 13.

Dodgers catcher Will Smith is expected to miss another month with injury.

Teams are interested in trading for Athletics outfielders.

The Reds are looking to move players on expiring contracts.

Brewers pitcher Brandon Woodruff needs season-ending surgery.

Where could Francisco Lindor be traded?

How Pete Crow-Armstrong became an MVP candidate.

Japanese college slugger Rintaro Sasaki will sign with the Marlins instead of playing in Japan.

Former Blue Jays closer Duane Ward dies at the age of 62.

Spain bests Argentina to win the FIFA 2026 World Cup.

The Atlanta Hawks trade Zaccharie Risacher two years after making him the #1 overall pick.

How Burger King is preparing for the GLP-1 revolution.

Luke Skywalker’s lightsaber and severed hand from The Empire Strikes Backsell for $3.75 million at auction.

Airlines warn that adjusting to permanent daylight savings time could take up to two years.

Your song of the day is Ned’s Atomic Dustbin with Grey Cell Green.

Today, I’m only going to cover the Memphis Redbirds and the starting pitching prospects at Springfield. On Thursday, the relievers at Springfield and the lower minors, but not the rookie leagues. I gave the update on the rookie leagues earlier this month. But there really aren’t that many interesting rookie league pitchers so it wouldn’t have added a ton to this post.

Memphis

Quinn Mathews, LHP – 25 (VEB’s #4 prospect)

Acquired:4th round, 2023 draft

Stats: 18 GS, 85 IP, 29.1 K%, 14.1 BB%, 47.9 GB%, .211 BABIP, 3.39 ERA/4.90 FIP/4.41 xFIP/4.58 DRA

The problem Quinn Mathews is currently facing is that he has not managed to string many starts together where he seemed to have control. He walked four guys in his first start this season, and then over a period of three consecutive starts, the best he did all year was 5 walks. But you could only find one three-start period where he did that. His next highest was 6 walks over 3 games. Same thing. You were more likely to look at his last three starts and see 9 or 10 walks than 5 or 6.

Good news however: his most recent three starts involved just 3 total walks, for a BB% of 4.4%. I’m not sure what kind of sample the Cardinals are looking for, I kind of think they’d walk better control over a longer period than just three starts. But he might get called up next week. It is important to note that might actually have more to do with the no off-days in the schedule than them actually thinking he’s ready. But that’s his big thing right now: if only he walked less, he’d be in St. Louis already.

Tink Hence, RHP – 23 (VEB’s #10 prospect)

Acquired: 2nd round, 63rd overall in 2020 draft

Stats: 18 G (3 GS), 20 IP, 20.2 K%, 18.2 BB%, 45.6 GB%, .278 BABIP, 6.64 ERA/6.49 FIP/6.01 xFIP/6.02 DRA

Speaking of inconsistency, Hence has not managed to find a rhythm this year at all. His ERA is updated, but his other stats will get worse because he threw 0.1 IP with a BB and HR allowed yesterday. Moved to the bullpen for what I would have assumed were innings concerns, there are now performance concerns. He seems to be facing an entirely different problem than he has in the past, when it was pretty much purely injury concerns. The good/bad news is that something has changed in his delivery or mechanics. And that’s good news because you change mechanics or delivery back to what it was before. The bad news is that if he never finds it again, he doesn’t have a future MLB career. He’s still just 23.

Tekoah Roby, RHP – 24 (VEB’s #11 prospect)

Acquired: Traded with Thomas Saggese and John King for Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton

Stats: N/A

Roby underwent Tommy John surgery in the middle of last season and is not likely to pitch this season.

Brycen Mautz, LHP – 24 (VEB’s #13 prospect)

Acquired: 2nd round, 59th overall in 2022 draft

Stats: 17 G (16 GS), 22.1 K%, 15.9 BB%, 43.2 GB%, .251 BABIP, 2.92 ERA/4.90 FIP/5.65 xFIP/6.44 DRA

I feel like Mathews has gotten plenty of headlines about how much he has struggled with control, but Mautz is really getting much attention and he’s been worse. He has a good ERA, somehow, but every other stat is not good. He isn’t striking out a lot of hitters and he’s walking a ton of them. The Cardinals are clearly avoiding calling up Mautz – they’ve had chances and they went with journeymen – and looking at these stats, I understand why.

Ixan Henderson, LHP – 23 (VEB’s #16 prospect)

Acquired: 8th round, 2023 draft

Stats (CPX): 2 G, 1.2 IP, 0.0 K%, 23.1 BB%, 28.6 GB%, .500 BABIP, 21.60 ERA/9.60 FIP/11.22 xFIP

So obviously rehab appearances are not about stats, but I would call these numbers concerning. My first instinct is that he’s still not healthy. He could just as easily be rusty. Certainly if his whole rehab goes like this, I would imagine he’s shut down again.

Hunter Dobbins, RHP – 26

Acquired: Traded with Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aitia for Willson Contreras

Stats:13 GS, 62.2 IP, 17.1 K%, 8 BB%, 51.3 GB%, .303 BABIP, 4.16 ERA/4.73 FIP/4.93 xFIP/4.45 DRA

Last season, Dobbins threw just 78.2 IP all year. This year, he’s already at 84 innings. With over two months left to play, I think it’s pretty clear the Cardinals aren’t going to seriously restrict his innings, but I also think they’re trying to do minor stuff here and there to keep his innings lower than his full potential. Because he’s made 18 appearances across both the majors and minors, he’s one start behind all the MLB guys, and he’s thrown 24 less innings than McGreevy, 14 less innings than both May and Pallante, and 4 less innings than Kyle Leahy – who has also made 18 starts, but is making his 19th start tonight. He did throw 125 innings in 2024, so I assume the Cardinals hope he’ll reach that at least.

Pete Hansen, LHP – 25

Acquired: 3rd round pick, 97 overall in 2022 draft

Stats:14 GS, 59 IP, 22.0 K%, 8.5 BB%, 44.8 GB%, .324 BABIP, 4.88 ERA/4.42 FIP/4.53 xFIP/5.42 DRA

I’ll give Pete this: he’s hanging in there. I haven’t really been a believer of his, because he’s always been okay while never being the young guy. He’s never been old for his level necessarily, just a guy posting okay stats at AA at 24-years-old is not going to get my attention. But he’s mostly maintaining his production at each stop. He struck out 21.1% of people in Springfield, so far it’s even gone up a bit. He’s been worse because of the walks, but as you can see with Mautz and Mathews, it’s apparently hard to not walk guys in Memphis and 8.5% is perfectly respectable. While his stats remain okay, this is probably the first time I can squint and see him with an MLB career.

Sem Robberse, RHP – 24(VEB’s #13 prospect in 2025)

Acquired: Traded with Adam Kloffenstein for Jordan Hicks

Stats (Rehab): 5 GS, 9 IP, 24.3 K%, 0 BB%, 57.7 GB%, .407 BABIP, 6.00 ERA/3.33 FIP/2.53 xFIP

See, now this, this is the kind of performance I want to see in rehab. Who cares about the ERA in 9 IP? He has not walked a single batter and almost everything is being hit on the ground. Great sign. He only threw 14.2 IP last season, so I’m not sure how much they’re going to ramp him up cause obviously it’s going to be pretty easy to beat 14.2 IP with any kind of health.

Mason Molina, LHP – 23

Acquired: Traded with Skylar Hales for Phil Maton

Stats (AA): 14 GS, 69 IP, 28.8 K%, 9.1 BB%, 30.8 GB%, .271 BABIP, 2.87 ERA/3.61 FIP/4.65 xFIP/4.55 DRA

AAA: 2 GS, 8 IP, 33.3 K%, 11.9 BB%, 23.8 GB%, .476 BABIP, 6.75 ERA/3.91 FIP/4.13 xFIP/4.74 DRA

The Cardinals traded two months of Phil Maton and one of the pieces they got back, who had made 7 appearances in High A at the time of the time, is in AAA less than a year later. Here’s some more fun news: Mason Molina was originally drafted by the Brewers, who traded him to the Rangers for Grant Anderson, a perfectly cromulent but whatever reliever. Molina will probably have to get groundballs at some point to be a starter though – not a lot, but he’d allow too many homers with anything lower than 30%.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP – 28

Acquired: Rule 5, 2023 from Red Sox

Stats: 20 G, 22.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 7.5 BB%, 42.2 GB%, .274 BABIP, 4.43 ERA/4.34 FIP/4.08 xFIP/5.12 DRA

Not really stats that make you think he belongs in the big leagues, actually I would describe those stats as good enough for exactly the role he has now – bullpen shuttle reliever.

Hancel Rincon, RHP – 24

Acquired: Internatonal amateur free agent signing of the Dominican Republic in 2019

Stats: 27 G (3 GS), 51.2 IP, 27.1 K%, 11.3 BB%, 46.2 GB%, .304 BABIP, 4.35 ERA/5.05 FIP/4.28 xFIP/4.27 DRA

That’s about as clear-cut of a multi-inning reliever as you’ll get. His three starts were not actually starts, at least not 5 IP starts. He has walked give guys in his two most recent appearances so I don’t think he’s close to getting called up.

Austin Love, RHP – 27

Acquired: 3rd round, 90th overall in 2021 draft

Stats: 12 G, 15 IP, 20.8 K%, 20.8 BB%, 52.3 GB%, .302 BABIP, 7.20 ERA/6.34 FIP/6.33 xFIP/6.77 DRA

Love ended up with not particularly impressive numbers in Springfield despite a fantastic start. The Cardinals promoted him anyway and I guess it shouldn’t be a shock that he has struggled. I was kind of hoping he was going to be an effective reliever, but given his age, it does appear to be a true longshot, despite him being on the door step to the big leagues.

Skylar Hales, RHP – 24

Acquired: Traded with Mason Molina for Phil Maton

Stats: 26 G, 30.1 IP, 23 K%, 13.2 BB%, 52.7 GB%, .389 BABIP, 7.71 ERA/5.55 FIP/4.68 xFIP/5.00 DRA

I got to tell you, sharing the pitching stats are a real bummer. I’m pretty sure the offensive environment is a little bit crazy, so understand that a decent or even seemingly below average looking line is actually fine. But that is not an argument that these are good stats. These are an improvement over his performance last season in AAA, although it’s mostly just because he’s getting a lot of groundballs.

Cade Winquest, RHP – 26

Acquired: 8th round, 2022 draft

Stats: 22 G, 25.2 IP, 29.4 K%, 5.5 BB%, 44.9 GB%, .344 BABIP, 5.96 ERA/3.62 FIP/3.31 xFIP

Well bad news: Winquest got rocked yesterday. I updated the ERA, not the other stats. And the other stats will get worse, mainly because he allowed a homer and didn’t strike anybody out. Good news though is that the K/BB ratio certainly suggests he’s very close to being MLB ready.

Ryan Murphy, RHP – 26

Acquired: Minor League Rule 5, 2025 from Giants

Stats: 19 G, 25.2 IP, 24.2 K%, 14.5 BB%, 56.3 GB%, .353 BABIP, 6.51 ERA/5.80 FIP/4.71 xFIP/4.76 DRA

Murphy is a good example of how an injury can derail a career. Murphy had 11 good starts in AA – albeit a little over 3 innings per start – and then he essentially missed his the rest of that season and the next season (which was mostly spent on rehab appearances). So the Cardinals grabbed him up and ploppped him in the bullpen. And there might be something here with his GB rate being so high.

Springfield (Starters)

Liam Doyle, LHP – 22 (VEB’s #2 prospect)

Acquired: 5th overall pick in the 2025 draft

Stats: 15 GS, 61 IP, 27.4 K%, 13.3 BB%, 33.3 GB%, .340 BABIP 5.31 ERA/4.88 FIP/4.82 xFIP

We probably should have expected some growing pains with Doyle. It was known he needed to work on his secondaries. And sometimes that leads to games like yesterday, when he walked 5 guys and struck out just 3 guys. Yesterday’s stats are not reflected in his FIP or xFIP, so those will be worse when you read this. But he is still missing quite a few bats, balls are maybe falling more often than they would in the majors, and I really don’t think the Cardinals care about Doyle’s specific stats.

Jurrangelo Cjintje, RHP – 23 (VEB’s #5 prospect)

Acquired: Traded with Tai Peete in 3-team trade for Brendan Donovan

Stats: 17 GS, 80.1 IP, 28.2 K%, 11.3 BB%, 40.8 GB%, .288 BABIP, 5.04 ERA/5.26 FIP/4.79 xFIP

Yes, I am aware Cjinjte is now in Memphis. He made his first start for Memphis yesterday, and wasn’t very good, allowing 6 ER in 3.2 IP and more walks than strikeouts. This is really not surprising because his stats at Springfield weren’t very good. So interesting move to promote him. I think the Cardinals are not looking at the same stats we are, or at least he’s doing something they are encouraged by that isn’t necessarily reflected in the stats themselves.

Brandon Clarke, LHP – 22 (VEB’s #9 prospect)

Acquired: Traded with Richard Fitts and Patrick Galle for Sonny Gray

Stats: 2 G, 3 IP, 25 K%, 16.7 BB%, 66.7 GB%, .167 BABIP, 6.00 ERA/4.99 FIP/5.44 xFIP

You would have legitimately no clue that Clarke actually pitched pretty poorly on Saturday, because the attention was rightfully on the fact that he threw 103 mph. But he walked two and struck out 1 of the 7 batters he faced while giving up two runs. It also speaks to the fact that rehab appearances don’t really matter. When the Cardinals deem him ready for Springfield, that’s when I’m going to care that he’s walking more than he’s striking out.

Cooper Hjerpe, LHP – 25 (VEB’s #16 prospect)

Acquired: 1st round, 22 overall in 2022 draft

Stats: 3 GS, 7 IP, 44.1 K%, 20.6 BB%, 41.7 GB%, .400 BABIP, 9.00 ERA/6.08 FIP/3.48 xFIP/3.10 DRA

As good as Hjerpe’s stats are so far…. he is not beating the reliever allegations with them. I’ve pitched it before, but certainly someone who is striking out 44% of batters could probably be an MLB reliever right now. I wouldn’t promote him right now, but I definitely would like to see him get innings in September. I don’t think this is a giving up on starting move – he didn’t throw an inning last season, so I don’t think the Cardinals are going to have him throw more than a few innings per start anyway. If the Cardinals are still in contention, try using him as a lefty weapon out of the bullpen. That’s just my hope.

Chen-Wei Lin, RHP – 24 (VEB’s #11 prospect in 2025)

Acquired: International amateur free agent signing out of Taiwan in 2023

Stats: 17 G (14 GS), 67 IP, 27.3 K%, 13.2 BB%, 52.6 GB%, .331 BABIP, 5.10 ERA/4.53 FIP/4.71 xFIP/5.39 DRA

While these are certainly not what I wuld call good stats, he is striking out 27% of batters while having a greater than 50% GB rate. There’s a starter toolkit here and considering injuries restricted him to 50.1 IP, it’s good to see he has been healthy.

Braden Davis, LHP – 23

Acquired: 5th round, 2024 draft

Stats: 17 GS, 73 IP, 26.5 K%, 14.2 BB%, 41.8 GB%, .315 BABIP, 4.68 ERA/5.13 FIP/5.04 xFIP

I know Chaim Bloom has a reputation for taking things slow with pitchers, but there are kind of lot of pitchers in this system that were seemingly promoted aggressively and who don’t have particularly great stats at that aggressive placement. Davis made 8 total starts last year and missed a lot of bats and missed the strike zone a good amount. If they repeated Davis in High A, I’m sure they were confident he would have good stats, so they wanted to push him. I just kind of get the feeling that the Cardinals don’t want their starters to be too dominant because then they aren’t being challenged enough.

Blake Aitia, RHP – 23

Acquired: Traded with Yhoiker Fajardo and Hunter Dobbins for Willson Contreras

Stats (High A): 14 GS, 57.1 IP, 26.6 K%, 10.3 BB%, 38.6 GB%, .324 BABIP, 3.92 ERA/5.11 FIP/4.84 xFIP/4.27 DRA

AA: 2 G, 12 IP, 17 K%, 4.3 BB%, 33.3 GB%, .200 BABIP, 3.00 ERA/5.09 FIP/4.92 xFIP/6.47 DRA

Davis is followed by another pitcher who honestly proves my point more. It does not feel like Aita gets promoted in an organization that promotes its pitchers too slow. It could be an entirely AAA to majors reputation that Bloom got here. It feels like pitchers are promoted aggressively honestly.

Brandt Thompson, RHP – 23

Acquired: 17th round, 2024 draft

Stats (AA): 12 G (8 GS), 28.8 K%, 9.8 BB%, 46.5 GB%, .323 BABIP, 4.89 ERA/4.11 FIP/3.96 xFIP

AAA: 6 G, 22.1 IP, 15.5 K%, 9.3 BB%, 46.6 GB%, .338 BABIP, 5.64 ERA/4.57 FIP/4.97 xFIP

Thompson is currently in Springfield, hence why he isn’t in the Memphis section. Props to Randy Flores on picking this guy up in the 17th round, regardless of how far he ends up making it, Thompson looks more like a potential MLBer than the vast, vast, vast majority of 17th rounders ever do and that alone makes it a good pick.

And that’s where I’m going to stop. It felt kind of awkward, because I reached the end of Memphis and noticed that covering all of Springfield would actually make this a fairly long post, but I didn’t want to ignore Springfield completely, so today you get the starters, and on Thursday, you get the relievers plus the lower minors. Covering all the bullpen pitchers really adds up. Thankfully, I can pretty much ignore the bullpen guys in the lower minors. So I will get the pitching section finished on Thursday.