Category: Baseball

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It’s a jam-packed 15-game slate across the majors today, and I’ve dug deep to find the top MLB player props. I’ll include CJ Abrams, Andy Pages, and Yordan Alvarez. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, April 17. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
CJ Abrams	1+ RBI	+185
Andy Pages	1+ runs	-110
Yordan Alvarez	1+ runs	-150

CJ Abrams 1+ RBI (+185)

CJ Abrams is off to a red-hot start this season. He’s hitting .371 in 18 games with six home runs and 19 RBI, which ranks second in the big leagues.

The youngster has collected an RBI in three of his last five contests, and the Washington Nationals will face San Francisco Giants righty Logan Webb tonight. 

Webb has struggled out of the gates, posting a 5.25 ERA so far. While Abrams is just 2-for-14 lifetime against Webb, he’s driven in two runs.

Webb gave up four earned runs last time out, and Abrams is the engine of this Nats offense. Eight of his RBI have come at home as well. 

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSBA, Nationals.TV

Andy Pages 1+ runs (-110)

Andy Pages has been one of the biggest surprises of this young season so far. He leads the MLB in batting average, hits, and RBI.

The Cuban-born outfielder has been coming across the plate himself a lot more lately, however, recording a run in two of his last three games. Pages has five hits across his last five appearances as well.

He’s putting himself in a great position to let his teammates do their thing and drive him in. Pages and the Los Angeles Dodgers are at Coors Field tonight taking on the Colorado Rockies. L.A. is hitting .283 with RISP. 

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNLA, Rockies.TV

Yordan Alvarez 1+ runs (-150)

A healthy Yordan Alvarez is simply good for the game. The slugger is a force to be reckoned with offensively, and he’s doing it all right now. He’s hitting .328 with seven homers, 18 RBI, and 16 runs.

Alvarez has come across the plate four times over the last three games. The Cuban also has four hits during that span, and he’s up against Kyle Leahy of the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. Alvarez is 2-for-2 lifetime vs. Leahy with two hits.

The Astros are also batting .264 with RISP. 

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, SCHN

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

There’s no real way to answer this, but give me your take anyway. I think this is kind of a funny situation.

The Braves have the guys they think are the Good Relievers: Tyler Kinley, Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, Raisel Iglesias. Maybe Aaron Bummer is in that group, maybe not, I’m not sure yet. But then there’s everyone else, who largely exists to throw mop-up and get shuttled off the roster for a fresh mop-up arm. That creates a bit of a situation, because by virtue of throwing mop-up and getting shuttled off the roster, it’s hard to prove to the team that you should be getting higher-leverage work. The only way to “fall into” higher leverage work is to enter a blowout, have the offense get the Braves back in it, but then stick around and keep pitching in a closer game.

So, without going into all the considerations: do you think any pitcher in the organization breaks into the quartet/quintet of Good Relievers Used Accordingly this season?

EDITOR’S NOTE: A version of this article appeared here on the 42nd anniversary of this event, eight years ago. Since it’s now been exactly half a century since Mike Schmidt’s four-homer game at Wrigley Field, I thought you might like to read about that day again. Here’s a lightly edited version of the 2018 article.

Fifty years ago today, it was 84 degrees at game time for a contest between the Cubs and Phillies at Wrigley Field with a wind blowing out at 20 miles per hour.

As you might imagine, that sent quite a few baseballs heading toward the Wrigley Field bleachers that Saturday afternoon, April 17, 1976.

The Cubs used that wind to produce an 11-run lead. My friends, that lead did not last.

The Cubs hit three home runs by the fourth inning: two by Rick Monday and one by Steve Swisher. Two of the three homers were off future Hall of Famer Steve Carlton, who didn’t make it out of the second inning, allowing seven hits, two walks and seven runs.

All of that gave the Cubs a 13-2 lead after four innings. A no-brainer fun win, right?

Well, no. These were the 1976 Cubs, who would bottom out at 19 games under .500 (39-58) on July 26, before playing a bit better the rest of the way (36-29, perhaps presaging a good start the following year. From July 27, 1976 through June 28, 1977 the Cubs were 83-51, one of the best long stretches in franchise history).

Anyway, most of what happened the rest of that long-ago afternoon was courtesy of another future Hall of Famer, Mike Schmidt.

Cubs starter Rick Reuschel actually retired Schmidt in his first at-bat, in the second inning. (Amazingly, Schmidt batted sixth in that Phillies lineup.) Schmidt singled in the fourth and was forced out, but the Phillies scored their first run.

He came up again with a runner on and two out in the fifth and homered. That made the score 13-4.

It was still 13-4 in the top of the seventh. The Phillies had already scored twice when Schmidt batted with two out and no one on base. He homered again, cutting the Cubs’ lead to six.

A six-run lead heading to the bottom of the seventh. What could possibly go wrong? (You likely already know the answer to that question.)

In the top of the eighth, Dick Allen singled in two runs with the bases loaded to make it 13-9. By this time Mike Garman had replaced Reuschel. It mattered not. Schmidt smashed his third homer of the game, this one a three-run shot, and suddenly it’s a one-run game, 13-12.

Darold Knowles relieved Garman. Knowles, famed for his work in the 1973 World Series for the Athletics, did not have a good outing on this windy day. Another homer — this one by Bob Boone — tied the game, and Knowles allowed two more runs in the inning, so the Cubs now trailed 15-13.

The Cubs weren’t done, though. With two out and runners on second and third in the ninth, Swisher singled in both and the game headed to extra innings tied 15-15.

With one out in the top of the 10th and a runner on base, Schmidt came to the plate [VIDEO].

Schmidt’s fourth homer of the game — and remember, he didn’t hit his first until the fifth inning — was off Rick Reuschel’s brother Paul, and the Phillies scored once more to make it 18-15. (That’s the WGN radio call on the video, with Vince Lloyd and Lou Boudreau.)

This game — which eventually ran three hours, 41 minutes — wasn’t quite done. With two out in the last of the 10th, Bill Madlock doubled in Mike Adams — the only run Adams scored as a Cub — and Jerry Morales stepped to the plate as the potential tying run.

Phillies manager Danny Ozark called on Jim Lonborg, normally a starter. Lonborg got Morales to ground out, and posted one of just four saves he had in his big-league career. Here’s how Tribune writer Richard Dozer recapped this game:

The combined delights of hitting behind a 20 mile-an-hour wind in Wrigley Field against a Cub pitching staff that only a foe could love thrust Mike Schmidt, the National League home run champion, full force into the big league record book Saturday.

Schmidt smashed four consecutive home runs to set a modern National League record. With them, he drove across eight runs and dragged the Philadelphia Phillies off the floor to an incredible 18-16 victory in 10 innings before 28,287 shellshocked spectators.

Unbelievably defeated in this one, the staggered Cubs actually were ahead at one stage by a 13-2 score. But while Philadelphia pitchers were knocking down Cub hitters to gain a measure of respect Cub hurlers rarely attain, the whipped Chicagoans were overtaken in a three-run Philadelphia ninth.

The Cubs thus lost a game they’d led by 11 runs — and by six going into the eighth! — by that 18-16 score.

Half a century later, the 11-run blown lead still stands as the biggest in National League history. (There have been a couple of AL games where a 12-run lead was blown.)

It all happened 50 years ago today, Saturday, April 17, 1976.

Columbus Clippers 10, Iowa Cubs 11

Clippers fall to 9-9

Columbus made a valiant effort to battle back in this one after falling behind 5-0, but the Clippers fell one run shy in extra innings Thursday.

Travis Bazzana had a spectacular game, going 3-for-6 with two doubles. He’s currently riding a six-game hitting streak with four multi-hit games in his last five. Don’t look now, but he’s really starting to figure it out at Triple-A.

C.J. Kayfus also had a three-hit game, going 3-for-5 with a double and a walk. Stuart Fairchild went 2-for-5 with a double and a hit by pitch while Kody Huff went 2-for-4 with two doubles.

Dayan Frias hit his first home run of the season while Milan Tolentino had a two-run double.

Starting pitcher Ryan Webb was tagged for seven runs (six earned) on nine hits with four walks and just one strikeout in 5.0 innings of work.

Will Dion was solid in relief, tossing 2.0 scoreless innings.

Daniel Espino gave up his first run of the season, a solo home run, but he also topped 100 mph with his fastball three times. His slider was over 94 mph and his changeup was over 93. His stuff is getting filthier every time we see him and I’m legitimately getting excited for what he’s going to be able to do as long as he continues to stay healthy.

Steven Perez pitched a scoreless ninth inning, giving Columbus the chance to send the game to extra innings — which it did — but then he was hammered for three runs in the top of the 10th. Columbus managed to score two back, but the rally fell just short.

Akron RubberDucks 5, Harrisburg Senators 0 (F/7)

RubberDucks improve to 8-4

Akron continues to get excellent pitching and timely hitting as the RubberDucks own their third straight game. This time, it was starting pitcher Josh Hartle who had himself a game.

Hartle tossed 5.1 shutout two-hit innings with seven strikeouts and three walks. The performance lowered his season ERA to 2.45.

Jay Driver completed the final 1.2 innings of the shutout in a rain-shortened game.

On offense, Angel Genao had a terrific game, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk. Christian Knapczyk went 1-for-3 with a walk and Jake Fox went 3-for-4.

Alfonsin Rosario went 1-for-4, but his one hit was a huge one, a three-run home run in the seventh inning to help Akron seal the win. It was his fifth home run of the season.

Lake County Captains 3, Fort Wayne Tincaps 8

Captains fall to 5-6

You wouldn’t think it from the final score, but this was by far the best start of pitching prospect Jackson Humphries’ young career.

An eighth round draft pick out of high school in 2022, Humphries has historically struggled to throw strikes, but that wasn’t the case on Thursday. He pitched five innings, allowing one run on two hits with 10 strikeouts and 0 walks. Still just 21 years old, he’s yet another arm in a loaded Guardians system that’s worth keeping an eye on.

Unfortunately, the bullpen didn’t have Humphries’ back on Thursday. Sean Matson gave up two runs in 1.2 innings, Cam Schuelke gave up another run in his 1.1 innings and Logan McGuire was absolutely blistered for four runs in his lone inning of work to remove the Captains from contention.

Offensively, the Captains scored all of their runs on solo shots. Jaison Chourio had a strong game, going 2-for-4 with a home run and a walk. He’s now up to a rock solid season slashline of .273/.389/.523 through 11 games. If he keeps this up, he’ll be right back on track as a top outfield prospect in the loaded Guardians system.

Esteban Gonzalez also had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a home run. Dean Curley went 1-for-3 with a walk, a hit by pitch and a stolen base and Nolan Schubart went 1-for-4 with a double and a walk. Luke Hill went 1-for-2 with a walk and a hit by pitch.

Hill City Howlers 14, Wilson Warbirds 1

Howlers improve to 8-4

Hill City went absolutely ballistic this game, scoring 14 runs on a whopping 17 hits with seven walks. This is going to be fun to break down, especially the top of the batting order, who all had downright disgusting games.

Juneiker Caceres had an absolute monster game, going 3-for-5 with a three-run home run and a walk. After a slow start to the season, he now sports a solid .872 OPS.

Leadoff hitter Dauri Fernandez also was elite, going 4-for-6 with two doubles and a stolen base. Top teenage outfield prospect Robert Arias was moved up to No. 2 in the batting order and he responded by going 3-for-6 with a double, raising his season batting average to .308 in the process.

Anthony Martinez reached base safely three times, going 1-for-4 with two walks. Yelferth Castillo went 2-for-6 with a double and catcher Ty Howard walked three times and scored a pair of runs.

Jhorvic Abreus went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and Yaikel Mijares went 2-for-5.

The incredible offensive eruption buried the lede of some tremendous pitching performances from Hill City.

Top pitching prospect Joey Oakie had his best start of the 2026 season thus far, throwing 4.0 shutout innings of three-hit ball with seven strikeouts and just one walk.

Jervis Alfaro followed with 5.0 innings, allowing one run (zero earned) on two hits with five strikeouts and two walks to earn the win.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers won a spirited, comeback affair against the A’s yesterday.

Kennedi Landry writes about how the Rangers finally bested their mortal enemy, the wind.

Grant also writes about Gavin Collyer’s quick and efficient MLB debut.

Grant also looks at some streaking Rangers, good and bad.

Elsewhere MLB Pipeline lists the best defensive prospect from each team.

And Mike Trout is really good (again).

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a new series with the Mariners tonight at 8:40 with Jacob The Grom on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

The Phillies have plenty of early season problems, but perhaps one of the most concerning ones is the performance of Jesús Luzardo. 

Four starts into the season after signing a five year, $135M extension, Luzardo sports a 7.94 ERA in 22.2 innings. He’s allowed five or more runs in three of those starts, with the most recent edition being his 9 runs on 12 hits in just 5.1 IP shellacking at the hands of the Cubs. His struggles are reminiscent to the tipping pitches situation from last summer, but he insists that’s not the case now. 

So, what is the problem then? One of the first things to look at when a pitcher is struggling is the stuff. In this case, Luzardo’s stuff looks good and, in some cases, looks better than last year. He’s averaging 97.3 MPH on his fastball, a slight increase from 2025, his sweeper has a 49% whiff rate on 140 pitches, and his changeup has a 46.3% whiff rate on 77 pitches thrown so far. There’s nothing under the hood to suggest that Luzardo’s stuff has regressed, in fact there’s more evidence to show it’s slightly improved. 

Luzardo suggested in his post-game interview that some of the problem could be pitch usage and sequencing. Here we can see a noticeable change, at least in the small sample size of four starts. He’s greatly increased the usage of his sinker, up to 19.1% from 10.8% last year at the expense of his four-seam fastball. The four seamer has fallen from his most used pitch at 33.3% to 24.1%, being overtaken by the sweeper for most used. Last season, Luzardo used the fastball and sweeper at similar rates, 33.3% and 32.1% respectively. So far in 2026, he’s tried to incorporate the sinker more into that mix at the expense of his regular fastball.

Elsewhere, his problems with runners on base have once again reared their ugly head. Opposing hitters are hitting .441 with five extra base hits including three home runs against Luzardo with runners on base. When the bases are empty, opposing hitters are hitting .220 with three doubles and 20 strikeouts to 3 walks. He’s also struggled mightily the second and third time through the order. Opponents are hitting .171 with a .394 OPS and 12 strikeouts to one walk against Luzardo the first time through a lineup. But the second time through, those numbers jump to a .281 AVG and .861 OPS. They soar even higher the third time through, with Luzardo getting pulverized to the tune of a .500 AVG and 1.231 OPS in a sample of 26 batters faced.

At least part of the explanation to this poor start for Luzardo is bad luck. He’s sitting on a league worst .417 BABIP (Cristopher Sánchez is second with .411), well above his .324 mark from last year and way above the league average of .288 so far in 2026. That suggests that Luzardo is due for at least some positive batted ball regression. There was some soft contact that found grass in his latest start, but there were also some hard-hit rockets among the balls in play he surrendered, including four balls at over 100 MPH in exit velocity. Nevertheless, his 86.2 MPH average exit velocity for the season so far is right in line with his 88.5 mark from 2025. 

It is still early, and Luzardo was able to rebound from a string of poor starts last year. His batted ball luck should normalize as the season goes on, but his struggles with runners on base is a trend that dates back to last season and was thought to have been fixed. So, is it time to worry about JesúsLuzardo? Or are you confident that he’ll be able to right the ship again?

It’s no lie to say that, even among a sea of flame-throwing MLB starters, Shane Baz’s talent stands out. He brings a four-pitch mix (technically, five, but he’s thrown the sinker exactly once this year, so I don’t quite believe in it) featuring a four-seam fastball that averages, even post-Tommy John, 97 mph, 84th percentile in the league. This is the same pitch that Baseball America awarded the best-in-organization grade for three years running in the Rays system, and his scouting reports long reflected that fact, plus the sheer talent.

Drafted 12th overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017, Baz was packaged—somewhat infamously—as the PTBNL in the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to Tampa Bay for Chris Archer. It is widely considered one of the worst deals in, at least, Pirates history. He was soon Tampa Bay’s No. 1 prospect, striking out a ridiculous 113 hitters in 78.2 innings as a Rays farmhand. Seems that the nickname “Wizard of Baz,” which has followed him since high school, was not unearned.

At the MLB level, his numbers never hit those levels of hype. His 2021 debut lasted all of three games, and his 2022 season was also marred by injuries, including surgery with Dr. Keith Meister (who’s also operated on Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin). Tommy John cost Baz all of 2023, an oblique injury derailed his 2024 return, and only in 2025 did Baz finally make a full season’s worth of starts. The numbers weren’t the gaudiest: he made 31 starts for Tampa Bay in 2025, registering a 10-12 record and 4.87 ERA with 176 strikeouts.

His Statcast peripherals were, though, and those totals were enough to send the Orioles scavenging through their farm system cupboard to fund the biggest pitching acquisition of the Mike Elias era. Baltimore sent four prospects—outfielder Slater de Brun (their No. 6 prospect), catcher Caden Bodine (No. 10), right-hander Michael Forret (No. 11), and outfielder Austin Overn (No. 30)—along with the 33rd overall pick in the 2026 draft  to pry Baz away from a division rival. Toing the party line at the start of the seaseon, new Orioles manager Craig Albernaz declared that Shane Baz’s upside is “Cy Young award winner,” an enviable ceiling. The sides then finalized a five-year, $68 million extension just before Opening Day: the richest contract the Orioles have ever given to a pitcher.

So far in 2026, the results have been mixed (which is an affectionate way of saying they’ve been messy). Through his first four starts, Baz is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, with 19 strikeouts in 22 innings. He’s failed to complete six innings in three of four outings. He has allowed at least three earned runs in three of four starts, and the one strong one—5.2 one-run innings against the Pirates—has been bookended by clunkers against better teams.

The peripheral numbers are more encouraging, although not without their own concerns. The hopeful signs are in is the significant gap between his actual results and his expected ones: his xwOBA of .318 is considerably better than his actual wOBA of .393, suggesting some bad luck on balls in play. His knuckle-curve is generating a 28% whiff rate in early usage, and his cutter is holding hitters to a .182 average . The velocity remains intact—his spring training fastball maxed out at 98.6 mph. The strikeout upside is clearly still there.

On the other hand, Baz shows an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph (high for him) and a barrel rate of 9.8%, the latter sitting in an uncomfortable range. Opponents expected average of .252 is the highest of his career. His fastball run value of -4 is the lowest it’s been.

The recurring concern, as it has been throughout his career, is command: his four-seamer has been hit hard, surrendering four doubles among its first seven hits allowed. His offspeed stuff (changeup, cutter, the knuckle-curve) are all showing slightly reduced spin this season.

How does this compare to Baz’s best moments? His 2021 debut remains the benchmark, when his strikeout-to-walk ratio was exceptional and his stuff looked genuinely electric in a very small sample. Over 48 career starts since his return from Tommy John surgery, he has an 8.9 SO9 rate and a 3.3 walk rate, with a FIP of 4.23—numbers that speak of a solid mid-rotation arm rather than an ace, though the underlying metrics hint at more.

But his 2025 xERA of 3.88 and SIERA of 3.95 (skill-intensive ERA; it’s a Fangraphs thing) point to a pitcher whose ERA significantly overstates his struggles, particularly—and I find this pretty important—given the havoc wrought by Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ season-long Triple-A park last year while the Trop endured storm-related repairs.

Baz’s offspeed pitches seem to need some tuning up, but overall, the stuff does not appear degraded. What has fluctuated instead is his command and, in particular, his ability to suppress the home run ball against right-handed hitters. (I am told that, post-TJ, sometimes this happens.)

Four starts in, the early returns on Shane Baz as an Oriole are neither alarming nor reassuring—they’re more inconclusive. The gap between his actual results and his expected metrics suggests the ERA will come down. Patterns are already emerging that suggest he is leaning more heavily into his curve and cutter, a mix that appears to be working well. Camden Yards is a more forgiving environment than Steinbrenner Field, and Baz has shown in flashes (including five games of nine or more strikeouts in 2025) that the potential is real. The Orioles gave up a great deal to acquire him, well before he’d thrown a pitch in orange and black, and they gave up a lot to keep him here long-term. There are legitimate reasons to believe the best of Shane Baz is still ahead of him. We’re still watching, and what we see is enough to stay interested.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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Let's head into the weekend on some winning vibes with our MLB best bets for tonight at Polymarket, which allows baseball fans coast-to-coast to make their favorite MLB picks.

We've polled our MLB experts for their top plays today, looking at Chi-Town, the A-Town, and Believeland to deliver Ws tonight. 

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: CHW ML	+138
Jon Metler: ATL ML	-108
Joe Osborne: CLE ML	-127

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 42¢ (+138) at Polymarket

There’s solid wiggle room here, with a fair price around +106. Davis Martin has been steady, turning in three strong starts with two wins for the Chicago White Sox. Aaron Civale doesn’t typically go deep for the Athletics, and their bullpen has been heavily used of late, with multiple key arms unavailable today. This profiles as a higher-scoring, back-and-forth game where both bullpens will factor in — in that type of environment, taking the plus-money dog makes sense.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

The Atlanta Braves are trading as a 52-cent favorite in Philadelphia on Friday, but I make them closer to a 58-cent favorite, giving us a solid edge at the current price. This is a tough matchup for Taijuan Walker, a pitch-to-contact right-hander who has struggled badly against lefties this season — a major concern against a Braves lineup loaded with left-handed bats, but also has dangerous righties like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley. On the other side, southpaw Martin Pérez isn’t overpowering, but he does a strong job commanding his cutter and sinker. That approach should help limit the pull-side power of Philadelphia’s top leftie threats Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, and keep the Phillies’ offense in check.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Guardians moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket

Home/Away splits line up heavily in the Guardians' favor tonight. Tanner Bibee is a completely different pitcher at home, carrying over from last season, where his ERA sat nearly two runs lower. Baltimore's Chris Bassitt, on the other hand, struggles badly on the road: He had an ERA spike of 2.7 in away games last season, and we're seeing shades of that in 2026. The gap shows up at the plate too, as Guardians hitters own an OPS nearly 100 points higher at home, while the Orioles' offense takes a noticeable dip away from Camden Yards, averaging just three runs per game.

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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It's been a great week on the home-run front as the MLB player prop market has been good to us without terrible hitting conditions.

There are some great spots to attack today, so I'm targeting the best hitting environments and matchups, and hopefully take a little money into the weekend.

The Jays have a great matchup vs. one of the luckier pitchers in baseball right now, and the Jordan Walker price is head-scratching when you look at his home-run matchup. 

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, April 17.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Daulton Varsho	+540
Jordan Walker	+540

Daulton Varsho (+540)

How about a little lefty-on-righty for +540 to start a Friday home run train?

Daulton Varsho is hitting out of the two-hole and might get that all-important fifth at-bat. He is also in the middle of a power surge with three home runs over his last six games. 

The indoor matchup vs. Mike Soroka is a plus. The Jays likely have plenty of info on the Canadian pitcher, who sits in the Bottom-20 in BlastCon% among all MLB starters this year.

You will also be hard-pressed to find a pitcher that has been as lucky as Soroka this year, with an ERA three full points below his expected numbers. There are also no left-handers in the Arizona bullpen, which sits 21st in RP ERA.

The fair price on this home run is around +450. 

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, Sportsnet

Jordan Walker (+540)

What a great price for one of the league’s top home-run hitters to start the season.

Jordan Walker has elite marks in swing speed and Blast Contact%, which have translated into a league-leading eight home runs. He gets a favorable matchup against Peter Lambert, who is making his debut and may only be in this spot due to injuries in the Astros' rotation rather than performance.

Lambert hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2024 and has allowed 25 home runs over his last 148+ innings in the MLB. He’s unlikely to go deep, which brings a vulnerable Houston bullpen into play — a unit that has already allowed the second-most home runs this season.

Walker could see fringe MLB arms for much of this game. This price should be closer to +390, and in a matchup like this, the scoring environment could get out of hand quickly.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Cardinals.TV

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Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees open a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals in the Bronx on Friday...

5 things to watch

Will Ben Rice stay in the lineup?

A lot has been made of manager Aaron Boone's lineups this week. Despite saying Rice is his first baseman, he's sat down the talented slugger a few times this week in favor of Paul Goldschmidt. 

While Boone likes having Rice as a left-handed option off the bench, with the team scuffling and Rice being the most consistent hitter this season, it would behoove the skipper to keep Rice at first base this weekend. 

Will it happen? That remains to be seen.

The Royals are deploying two southpaws in Noah Cameron and Cole Ragans, but Rice launched a homer off a lefty reliever against the Angels on Thursday, so he is capable of handling it.

Aaron Judge continues to mash

Judge is locked in.

The captain mashed four home runs in the four-game series against the Angels this week and is now tied for the major league lead in that category.

Unfortunately for the Yanks, the home runs haven't necessarily translated to victories as the Bombers had to settle for a split with the Angels. The Yankees have lost seven of their last nine games, but when Judge goes this team goes. And going up against those aforementioned lefties could benefit Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and the other right-handers in the lineup.

Bullpen woes

The Yankees' bullpen was the weakest part of the team coming out of spring training, but they excelled early on and helped the team get out to a 8-2 start. Things have changed since.

The relievers allowed 14 runs in 17 innings during the four-game series with the Angels, including two implosions.

New York has played musical chairs with certain relievers as they try and navigate playing 13 straight days -- their next off day is Monday. 

The high-leverage guys -- aside from Camilo Doval -- have been fine, but if the starters don't go deep the Yankees could be facing problems similar to what they experienced this week.

Length needed from starters

Speaking of the starters, the Yankees will have Cam Schlittler, Will Warren,and Ryan Weathers take the mound this weekend.

All three were not great in their last starts. Schlittler had his -- relative -- worst outing of the season, allowing three runs over five innings while the Angels pounced on Warren for six runs across 3.2 innings. Weathers was the most unique, as he struck out 10 batters but allowed five runs in five innings, all from the long ball.

While it is a long season and hiccups are natural, the Yankees need their young hurlers to give them length to take the pressure off the bullpen and the lineup.

Bobby in the Bronx

Yankee Stadium sometimes brings the best out of some players, like we saw with Mike Trout this week. The future Hall-of-Famer launched five home runs in the four-game series, making a statement to the rest of MLB that he is healthy and back.

Now, the Yanks will welcome Bobby Witt Jr.,the Royals' superstar who finished second to Judge in the 2024 MVP voting. While Witt hasn't had the start he usually does -- he's slashing .254/.346/.299 with an OPS of .645 across 18 games -- it's only a matter of time until the talented infielder gets it going.

Witt has played 11 games in the Bronx. In that span, he's hitting .255 with two doubles and one home run. 

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Ben Rice

Rice plays all three games and shows why he needs to stay in the lineup.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best start?

Cam Schlittler

Schlittler has allowed three runs in back-to-back games this season. He didn't do that all of last season, and I don't see that going to three games.

Which Royals player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Bobby Witt Jr.

Easy pick. Witt just put up three hits on Thursday against the Tigers, and it feels like he's ready to be his MVP-type self after a slow start.

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The Tampa Bay Rays will look to build on their six-game winning streak as they visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday night.

Tampa Bay has been crushing opposing pitchers so far this season, and I’m picking it to win again tonight in my Rays vs. Pirates predictions. 

Let’s take a deeper look at this matchup in my free MLB picks for Friday, April 17.

Who will win Rays vs Pirates tonight: Rays moneyline (+120)

The Tampa Bay Rays are averaging 5.06 runs per game so far this season, and have put up at least five runs in every game of their current winning streak. They’ll have a great chance to keep that going tonight against Pittsburgh Pirates starter Bubba Chandler.

Chandler has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts without going more than 5 1/3 innings in either game.

Tampa Bay starter Nick Martinez has looked sharp to start the season, throwing to a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his first three starts.

With the Rays coming in this hot, I’m jumping on these odds tonight.

COVERS INTEL: Tampa Bay is hitting .267 and averaging 5.5 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching this season.

Rays vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-102)

Pittsburgh is hitting well too, averaging five runs per game off a .734 OPS this year. Brandon Lowe has seven homers in his first 17 games, while Oneil Cruz and Ryan O’Hearn are also off to fast starts.

Neither starter is likely to give their team much length tonight. There are soft spots that these lineups can take advantage of if it takes several arms to get through this game, especially on Tampa Bay’s side.

With both lineups in peak form, I’m backing the Over.

Rays vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Rays +116 | Pirates -136
• Run line: Rays +1.5 | Pirates -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Rays vs Pirates trend

The Rays are 6-0 straight up in their last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Pirates.

How to watch Rays vs Pirates and game info

Rays vs Pirates latest injuries

Rays vs Pirates weather

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Earlier this week, the Yankees picked up a split in their series against the Angels, but it was a lot of work to get there. The two wins required ninth inning comebacks, while the two losses were both of the very dumb variety. With that over, the Yankees will remain home and welcome the Royals to town for a weekend matchup.

With the exception of the Dodgers, every team in baseball has gotten off to a middling start to the season, but the Royals sit at the lower end of that. Following a loss on Thursday, they sit at 7-12. Their lineup has been more to blame, as even Bobby Witt Jr. has gotten off to a bit of a slow start. Can the Yankees keep that going, or will we be sitting here Sunday night frustrated at another annoying series? Let’s look at what the pitching matchups might have in store.

Friday: Cam Schlittler vs. Michael Wacha (7:05 pm ET)

After a remarkable first two starts on the season, Schlittler has given up some runs in the last two, albeit both times, it was just three in five innings. The most remarkable stat of all was that a walk he issued in his most recent game against the Rays was the first he issued all season.

The veteran Wacha has gotten off to an incredible start to his age 34 season. In 21 innings across three starts, he’s given up just one run. In his perfectly fine 2025 season, he put up 3.6 fWAR and 3.8 rWAR, and he’s already at 0.6 and 1.1 respectively in 2026. Now, a non-zero amount of that had to do with throwing eight scoreless against a very bad White Sox offense in his last game, but the Yankees’ offense hasn’t covered themselves in glory so far, so we shall see.

Saturday: Will Warren vs. Noah Cameron (1:35 pm ET)

With a 2.45 ERA in his four starts so far, Warren has mostly been perfectly fine so far. That being said, he’s only lasted a full five innings once so far, and he did allowed four unearned runs in his last game. He’s also only issued six walks in 18.1 innings on the season, but if you look at the ball-strike breakdown, he has a habit of letting counts go long. While the Royals haven’t taken a ton of walks, they’ve struck out less than league average, so if he can’t put batters away cleanly and quickly in this one, that could lead to some danger.

Cameron debuted last season and had a very nice campaign, finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. However in his lone game against the Yankees so far, they did tag him for six runs in 5.2 innings last year on June 10th in Kansas City. His stats on 2026 so far are fine, but he has allowed a higher rate of hits so far.

Sunday: Ryan Weathers vs. Cole Ragans (1:35 pm ET)

Weathers’ 4.29 ERA only grades out as a little worse than league average. However, his start to the season feels way worse than that because he’s been a roller coaster. He has two pretty good starts, including one against the A’s where he gave up just one run in eight inning. However, his two bad starts have been very bad, including getting roughed up by the Angels earlier this week.

After a fourth place Cy Young finish in 2024, Ragans was limited to just 61.2 innings last year due to injury. He appears to be back and healthy this year, but did have to leave a start in the first inning a couple weeks ago after taking a liner to the thumb. His 3.78 ERA grades out as solid, but his 8.6 K/9 rate is way down from where it has been, including in 2024.

Good news: Red Sox fans get to watch the two best starting pitchers in the American League this weekend when the Detroit Tigers come to town.

Bad news: The pitchers miss each other by one game and Boston must find a way to beat the two-time defending Cy Young Award winner. 

Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal will each take the mound. Last season, they represented the class of left-handed pitching in the sport. They each set the tone of excellence for their respective rotations. 

There’s only one problem: We really have to miss this matchup? 

Here are four thoughts on the excellent southpaws before the Tigers and Red Sox begin a four-game set on Marathon weekend. 

So Close

Skubal will likely pitch Saturday’s contest against Brayan Bello while Crochet will take the ball for the Red Sox in the Sunday matinee. 

Despite spending multiple years in the same division when Crochet pitched for the Chicago White Sox, the stars have only faced off against each other once.

Flashback to Opening Day 2024 and it was the pitchers’ duel baseball deserved. Crochet and Skubal each tossed six strong innings with just eight combined hits allowed and 14 total strikeouts. 

The lone run against Crochet came when Andy Ibanez plated Javy Baez on a third-inning sacrifice fly. 

Baseball deserves to see this matchup once again, especially as the reigning top-two finishers in last year’s American League Cy Young Award race. 

ERA Crusher? 

When it’s all said and done, there may be no greater winner from Crochet’s disastrous start against the Minnesota Twins. 

The Red Sox starter imploded in the second inning Monday and exited after allowing 10 earned runs to the best team in the American League (so far). That performance ballooned Crochet’s ERA to 7.58 (!!!). 

That could take him months to bring that number back down to Earth and legitimately return him to award conversations. Skubal is at 2.22 through his first four starts and could now very easily walk the red carpet to his third consecutive Cy Young win, though other AL contestants will surely arise. 

All that in a contract year to boot (more on that later). 

Revisiting 2025

Skubal won the Cy Young Award last season with the ERA title (2.22 ERA) and the league-leading WAR (6.5). He won 13 games to Crochet’s 18 (we don’t need to insert the lecture on the declining value of pitcher wins) while the Red Sox ace led the sport with 255 strikeouts and 205.1 innings pitched.

Red Sox Discount? 

Boston wasted no time locking in Crochet for the future after acquiring him in a December 2024 trade with the White Sox. In the first week of the 2025 regular season, Crochet signed a six-year, $170 million extension through 2031 with an opt-out after 2030. 

Getting the second best starting pitcher in the American League at $28 million per year already feels like a win for the Red Sox. That should resonate even more when Skubal likely breaks the bank in free agency next winter.
Extension talks with Detroit seem to be over and Skubal will walk at the perfect time, especially after a potential three-peat Cy Young performance we alluded to early. If he exceeds $40 million per year, the Red Sox can have a rare reason nowadays to pat themselves on the back.

If you are a regular reader of this segment, you have seen this before. The best stats are the stats that can be used for hitting and pitching. Offensive and defensive efficiency is one of those. Today, we are focused on the worst pitching staff in baseball. At least, that is where the Astros ranked coming into Wednesday night’s game. They were last in hits allowed, walks allowed, and home runs allowed. In fact, if we throw in Wednesday night’s game they even led the league in hit by pitches.

I stepped out of the lab on Wednesday to question whether Joe Espada or Dana Brown were on the hot seat. Of course, they have no contract for 2027, so they started the season on the hot seat. I would never fire a manager or executive in April. It was more of a question of what would happen if these trends continue. The general law of statistics is that everything will regress to the mean. Today, I present the big table of how each major league team is doing in defensive efficiency.

In the case of pitching, the lower the number the better. It is a simple accounting of what percentage of base runners score. It is not a perfect accounting. We do not include players that reach on errors, but in this case we are short-circuiting the table to include the total number of runs, total number of base runners, and the defensive efficiency rating for each team. We will go last to first this time around.

I should go over some basic math before we dive into what it means. Each category stands on its own. So, if you were to take the median for each category and actually do the math, the median would be .354. Some of you are glazing over as you read this, but I know I have some intrepid readers out there that will notice these little things. Kudos to you for noticing.

Let’s start with the good news. The Astros are due for some positive regression on all counts. This team will not be the worst pitching staff in baseball for the whole season. They will surrender fewer hits and they will definitely get their walks down to a more reasonable level. However, the biggest thing is that their defensive efficiency will also approach the league median as well. This is because the entire league will approach the median eventually.

What exactly does this mean? If the Astros had league median efficiency they would have surrendered 99 runs instead of 113. In the early going, this would probably be equivalent to three wins. Suddenly, a 11-9 team would look a lot better than an 8-12 team. Of course, the hitting efficiency would also be closer to the median. So, maybe you would be looking at a .500 team.

The bad news is that getting to the median in hits allowed and walks allowed is not necessarily in the cards. The Astros will get closer to the median, but this might be a below average pitching staff with all of the injuries. This is mainly about efficiency. You will notice the numbers are over the board in terms of runs scored and base runners. The Rays are one of the better pitching staffs in terms of base runners. They are off the charts in a negative way.

So, in the end, the Astros have been bad, but they have also been unlucky. So, even if they continue to be bad, they will still improve overall due to a regression to the mean. They will eventually get there when health stabilizes and when they move to a more conventional rotation with AAAA type of starters to replace the injured ones.

We will revisit these numbers later in the year, so we should keep these in the back of our mind. You will see the numbers tightening and the Astros improve overall as the season goes along. The other good news is that teams like the Rangers will get worse. On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Do you agree?

Jacob Melton was acquired by the Rays as the centerpiece in the Brandon Lowe trade. He brings a high-impact toolset: fringe 70 power, plus defense across all three outfield spots (including center field), and above-average speed.

Through his first 15 games with Triple-A Durham, that hasn’t translated to production. Melton is currently running a 74 wRC+. Why would someone with a strong track record of upper-minors performance be struggling in AAA?

There are a few reasons for this. First, it’s likely just random variance in a small sample. It’s not even May yet, there’s no need to be concerned. Another reason is that Melton is currently undergoing an adjustment to his approach, so his early struggles may be less about regression and more about recalibration.

Damage on contact

In order to get the most out of his profile as a power hitter, Melton needs to ensure he’s consistently hitting the ball at optimal angles. He has seen year-over-year improvement in his SLG on contact (SLGcon), measured per “BBE” (Batted Ball Event, e.g. anytime a bat makes contact with the ball).

• 2024: .560 (127 BBE)
• 2025: .729 (97 BBE)
• 2026: .750 (22 BBE)

League average SLGcon in AAA typically sits in the mid to upper 500s each season, so we can see that he has gone from accessing his power from an average rate to a well above average rate so far this season. His launch angle (LA) distribution helps explain why.

Analyzing LAs in buckets adds an important layer than is often overlooked when one exclusively considers average LA. Categorizing LAs in groups paints a more detailed picture of a player’s batted ball distribution – something we can see with Melton’s LA buckets below:

It’s too small of a sample so far in 2026 to say that the data will be the same for the rest of the season, but the trends are more important than the exact numbers. Melton is getting into line drive and fly ball angles more consistently, and his hardest contact is coming at optimal angles for damage too. His average hardhit LA has climbed from just 9 degrees in 2024 to 19 degrees so far in 2026. I’d expect those improved angles to translate to more in-game production over a larger sample, but that production comes with a trade-off.

Next steps

Melton is whiffing significantly more this season as a result of his shift in approach. In many ways, this looks like a deliberate trade-off: sacrificing contact to unlock more impactful contact. After maintaining a solid 23.4 whiff% across 2024 and 2025 in AAA, it has significantly increased to 41.4% this season. That level of swing-and-miss would be difficult to sustain at the major league level.

Melton can hedge against this by improving his swing decisions and figuring out a two-strike approach. The two data points I’ll be following are his zone-minus-out-of-zone (Z-O) swing% with less than two strikes and his whiff% with two strikes.

He’ll need to be selective and disciplined to maintain his plus damage on contact. His Z-O swing% so far this year is a 38.9%. This number is currently better than average but getting it closer to 40% and higher would be ideal for Melton’s profile. It appears that he’s doing well in this area so far.

His two-strike approach is less polished as Melton is currently whiffing on 53.7% of pitches with two strikes. One possible adjustment is incorporating more opposite-field intent in two-strike counts. That would allow him to see the ball deeper and naturally shorten his swing, which could help reduce swing-and-miss. Importantly, this kind of situational adjustment wouldn’t necessarily come at the expense of his improved damage on contact.

Those two markers – early-count swing decisions and two-strike whiff rate – will be key to monitor as he works toward impacting the major league roster later this season and pushing for a role in 2027.