What kind of contract will Tarik Skubal sign in free agency?

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 03: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts against the Atlanta Braves in game one of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 03, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Tarik Skubal was the prize of the trade deadline, and will be a highly sought-after belle of the ball during free agency. He won American League Cy Young Awards in both 2024 and 2025 with the Detroit Tigers, then won a record $30 million decision in salary arbitration last winter.

After a strong season for both the Tigers and Dodgers, Skubal’s next salary will almost certainly exceed that $30 million. But what kind of contract might the left-hander receive this offseason?

Let’s look at some recent starting pitcher contracts at the top end of the market by average annual value (Cot’s Baseball Contracts has a great list of such things, if you’re interested).

PitcherTeamAgeYearsAvg. salary
Max ScherzerMets372022-24$43.3 million
Justin VerlanderMets402023-24$43.3 million
Zach WheelerPhillies352025-27$42 million
Framber ValdezTigers322026-28$38.3 million

Max Scherzer during the last lockout was one of eight executive-board members of the MLB Players Association, and signed his three-year, $130 million with the New York Mets on November 30, 2021, the day before the collective bargaining agreement expired. He took an active public role during the lockout.

Skubal now is one of eight executive-board members of the MLBPA as the alternate pension committee representative, and like Scherzer has Scott Boras as his agent.

The first three players on this list were at the team at least five years older than Skubal, who turns 30 on November 22. Framber Valdez last winter was two years older than Skubal is now but also didn’t have Skubal’s track record or hardware, plus Skubal has never had to fight off allegations that he hit his catcher with a pitch on purpose.

But Skubal is likely looking for a contract longer than three years, so let’s look at a few more recent longer deals on the high end of the market.

PitcherTeamAgeYearsAvg. salary
Jacob deGromRangers352023-27$37 million
Blake SnellDodgers322025-29$36.4 million
Gerrit ColeYankees292020-28$36 million
Stephen StrasburgNationals312020-26$35 million
Corbin BurnesDiamondbacks302025-30$35 million

Two Cy Young Awards were already on the mantel for Jacob deGrom by the time he was a free agent, but injuries cut into his final two years with the Mets before reaching free agency. Skubal missed six weeks this past season after arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow, and has pitched six full seasons in the majors. Here are the final six years before free agency for Skubal and deGrom

  • deGrom: 133 games, 846 2/3 IP, 2.40 ERA, 2.58 xERA, 1,115 K, 29.4 bWAR, 29.9 fWAR
  • Skubal: 155 games, 893 1/3 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.19 xERA, 1,038 K, 22.8 bWAR, 24.8 fWAR

It looks like deGrom has the edge in production, though was hurt by making only 26 starts over his final two years with the Mets. Plus, deGrom was five years older than Skubal is now, so it would be reasonable for him to seek a contract larger than the five years, $185 million deGrom got four offseasons ago.

The real question might be how much will Skubal’s 2026 surgery impact his free agency. He missed six weeks but was also quite productive in his 26 starts. He also had flexor tendon surgery that limited him to 36 total starts between 2022-23 with Detroit.

Blake Snell has an extensive injury history, and like deGrom and Skubal, also has two Cy Young Awards to his credit. When he first free agency, after the 2023 season he was coming directly off the second of his Cy Young seasons. Snell then was one year older than Skubal is now, so let’s look at their previous six seasons before free agency, which also includes both Snell Cy Young years (2018, 2023):

  • Snell: 148 games, 774 1/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 3.60 xERA, 1,006 K, 19.6 bWAR, 17.9 fWAR
  • Skubal: 155 games, 893 1/3 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.19 xERA, 1,038 K, 22.8 bWAR, 24.8 fWAR

Snell still had almost no market to speak of two offseasons ago, and he settled for a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants and opted out after one season in San Francisco.

It’s Snell’s five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers that is more of a thing for Skubal to shoot for than anything, but a market will have to develop. And the pending lockout adds a layer of uncertainty that at the very least might make Skubal have to wait a while before he finds his next deal.

Today’s question is how many years and guaranteed dollars do you think Tarik Skubal will sign for as a free agent this offseason?

Prince Fielder has the best perspective on the Brewers World Series win

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images | Getty Images

There is nothing like a first-time winner.

Earlier this week the Milwaukee Brewers won the World Series and in the process earned the franchise’s first-ever championship. The Brewers are winners forever now and have the 2026 team to thank for that.

But just because it was this year’s club that crossed that threshold hardly means that elite baseball hasn’t been played in Milwaukee before. We are talking about one of Major League Baseball’s most prolific franchises that simply did not have the thing that many people believe you have to have.

Once upon a time Milwaukee boasted the thing in the big leagues at the time in Prince Fielder. Watching Brewers legends like Fielder live through this team’s experience from their perspective was interesting for baseball fans everywhere, and on Friday morning I was able to talk to him about that and a host of other things (including his once-upon-a-time commitment to play college baseball for Pat Murphy’s Arizona State Sun Devils).

At both the beginning and end of our conversation I asked Prince about this year’s team and about something he specifically said about them throughout the run. Prince was on local news and was asked about his contributions to the Brewers and how he was a part of the group who helped lay the foundation for what they just became. He, respectfully, told the interviewer that he had nothing to do with this year’s team. He said he obviously played a role with the franchise, but that he had his time and this time belonged to this year’s group.

It isn’t often that you see such powerful perspective like that in sports. It takes a high level of humility to be able to reach that point and I was really impressed with Prince’s thoughts for that reason. Near the end of our interview I wanted to know what he would take away from this whole run given his unique mindset and he said that he’ll recall how nice it was to be regarded by everyone as it unfolded. He said he appreciated the sentiment from Brewers fans, baseball fans at large really, and how they connected what he did during his time with the franchise to what Pat Murphy’s group just accomplished.

Memories are a powerful thing in sports and Prince helped a lot of fans create some new ones on Friday as the Brewers celebrated their title. He teamed up with Budweiser to help distribute some truly one-of-one pieces of memorabilia… this stuff is unreal.

Budweiser is launching MemoraBEERlia, an exclusive limited-edition collection of exactly 150 collectibles crafted from MLB authenticated 2026 World Series items, celebrating the brand’s 150th anniversary and the crowning of a first-time champion.

Budweiser will also host a celebratory “First Taste of Victory” event on parade day in Milwaukee. Legendary player Prince Fielder will join Milwaukee fans 21+ to celebrate the historic moment by raising a Budweiser to the newly crowned champions.

For fans 21+, to celebrate Milwaukee’s victory, Budweiser is creating Championship Tap Handles, featuring MLB-authenticated pieces of 2026 World Series baseballs woven into the tap handle, World Series Base Coasters, featuring MLB-authenticated pieces of game-used 2026 World Series bases, and Celebration Pint Glasses, created with MLB-authenticated pieces of Budweiser championship bottles used in the 2026 MLB World Series locker room celebration. Fans 21+ will have a chance to enter on Instagram, Facebook, X or TikTok using #BudMemoraBEERlia #Sweepstakes now through November 5.

Fans 21+ can enter now through November 5 on Instagram, Facebook, X or TikTok using #BudMemoraBEERlia #Sweepstakes. 

Imagine being a part of that and grabbing something from Prince Fielder himself. You would never forget it.

Thankfully Prince knows that nobody will ever forget him either.

Blue Jays 40-Man Roster

Jun 6, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Ernie Clement (22) celebrates in the dugout with team mates after scoring a run against the Baltimore Orioles in the second inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With eight Jays who have declared free agency (I wonder how many do it like Michael Scott declared bankruptcy?), I thought we would take a look at the 40-man roster as it is.

Pitchers (21)

  • Spencer Arrighetti
  • José Berríos (60-day IL)
  • Jake Bloss (60-day IL)
  • Dylan Cease
  • Brendan Cellucci
  • Chad Dallas
  • Braydon Fisher
  • Mason Fluharty
  • Bowden Francis (60-day IL)
  • John Klein
  • Chase Lee
  • Brendon Little
  • Spencer Miles
  • Cody Ponce
  • José Rodríguez
  • Tyler Rogers
  • José Soriano
  • Ricky Tiedemann
  • CJ Van Eyk
  • Louis Varland
  • Trey Yesavage

Catchers (3)

  • Alejandro Kirk
  • Shawn Ross
  • Brandon Valenzuela

Infielders (6)

  • Ernie Whitt
  • Andrés Giménez
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  • Charles McAdoo
  • Kazuma Okamoto
  • Josh Smith

Outfielders (8)

  • Addison Barger (60-day IL)
  • Brett Bateman
  • Jonatan Clase (60-day IL)
  • Nathan Lukes
  • Yohendrick Piñango
  • Anthony Santander (60-day IL)
  • Davis Schneider
  • Myles Straw

DH (1)

Sean Keys

That adds up to 39.

The players on the 60-day IL aren’t on the 40-man roster yet, but will have to be added in a couple of days.

And they have a club option to decide on with Myles Straw. My guess is they will decline it, but try to sign him to a cheaper deal.

And, of course, some will be DFAed when they need roster space. And some minor leaguers will have to be added to protect them from the Rule 5 draft (if there is one).

They will also have some decisions on players without options: Jonatan Clase, Brendon Little, and Jake Bloss. Well, Ernie Clements as well. And, the veterans, of course, Vlad, Kirk, Santander, Giménez, Cease, Berríos, Straw, and Rogers can’t be optioned.

By the time baseball rolls around again, presuming it does start again, the roster will look a fair bit different. It would be fun to guess how many of these 39 will still be on the 40-man opening day.

How the players were acquired:

  • Homegrown: 10
  • Free Agent: 7
  • Trade: 18
  • Waivers: 2
  • Rule 5: 1

Where they are from:

  • US: 27
  • Mexico: 3
  • Venezuela 3
  • Dominican Republic: 2
  • Puerto Rico: 2
  • Canada: 1
  • Japan: 1

Red Sox kick start offseason with two minor trades, dealing away Nate Eaton, Tsung-Che Cheng

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 30: Nate Eaton #18 of the Boston Red Sox looks on against the New York Yankees during the third inning in game two of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on September 30, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The culling has begun.

As Matt Gross pointed out yesterday, a weird quirk of the Red Sox 40-man roster is forcing Craig Breslow’s hand as the offseason gets underway: he has to cut four players loose before free agency even begins. With a couple of minor trades yesterday, he’s at two down with two to go, as utility man and speed demon Nate Eaton was sent to the Athletics, while Tsung-Che Cheng will head to Detroit.

It goes without saying that these are two players the Red Sox can afford to lose. Eaton is a useful player whose speed and versatility gives him the type of profile that often leads to becoming something of a fan favorite. And I wouldn’t be shocked if he finds a way to contribute to the A’s in the next year or two. But with limited-to-no power to go with otherwise meh contact/on-base abilities, he’s never going to be a starter on a 95-win team (which, of course, should the Red Sox’ target). He was out of options and likely be to released for nothing, so getting anything in return for him is nice. He’ll get a real shot at sticking on a big league roster with the A’s and I’m sure most Sox fans would be thrilled if he does.

It’s going to be hard to say goodbye to Cheng, too. That’s kind of a crazy thing to say about a player who only got 39 at-bats with the big league club but, improbably, Cheng was the starting shortstop during most of the team’s historic 15-game win streak. He even made arguably the biggest defensive play of the season: a leaping catch to end the game when the Orioles had runners on second and third in the 9th, sealing the 14th win a row:

As for the return, Cheng only brought back cash, while Eaton brought back the definition of a lottery ticket: an 18-year-old Nicaraguan pitcher named Jareth Rayo who put up an ERA in the mid-5s and walked 20 batters in 36 innings in the Dominican Summer League last year. There probably is something that the research fellows in Craig Breslow’s pitching lab like about him, but there’s a good chance that this is the last time you ever read his name.

MLB option tracker: Players, teams exercising and declining 2027 options

Major League Baseball faces a precarious position as a potential lockout looms on Dec. 1 when the sport's collective bargaining agreement is set to expire.

Before that happens, some business still needs to be taken care of, as dozens of players have options on their 2027 contracts and will need to get those situations squared away for whenever the union and the owners decide that next season can be salvaged.

Teams face big decisions, and players must decide where they want to play the 2027 season by Nov. 2. Those include team, player and mutual options, as well as opt-outs for players who want to test the market and become free agents.

Some players who want to maximize their contracts can also accept a team's qualifying offer, which can be extended starting Nov. 2. The value of a 2027 one-year qualifying offer is $23.15 million, and free agents who decline a qualifying offer and sign with a new team will do so, as their old team will receive draft pick compensation as a result of their departure.

Here are the contract options that have been exercised and declined for the 2027 season:

MLB contract options exercised for 2027

  • Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves — Atlanta exercised $17M club option.
  • Ozzie Albies, Braves — Atlanta exercised $7M club option.
  • Sandy Alcantara, Marlins -- Miami exercised $21M club option.
  • Bo Bichette, Mets — Opted into his 2027 contract; has two years remaining on his three-year, $126M deal and can opt out again after 2027.
  • Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks — Opted into his 2027 contract, leaving four years on his six-year, $210M deal.
  • Tony Gonsolin, Royals — Kansas City exercised his $2.5M club option.
  • Ryan Helsley, Orioles — Opted into his $14M player option with Baltimore.
  • Andres Munoz, Mariners — Seattle exercised his $9M club option.

MLB contract options declined for 2027

  • Carlos Estevez, Royals — Kansas City declined his $13M club option, paying a $2M buyout.
  • Michael King, Padres — Declined his $28M player option for 2027. He also had a $30M player option for 2028. By opting out, he receives a $5 million buyout and walks away from the two remaining years of his deal.
  • Nick Martinez, Rays — Declined his $20M player option with Tampa Bay.
  • Dustin May, Brewers — Milwaukee's $20M mutual option was declined, with a $500K buyout.
  • Victor Robles, Mariners — Seattle declined his $9M club option, with a $500K buyout.

When is the MLB contract option deadline?

MLB teams and players must make their contract option decisions by Monday, Nov. 2, five days after the conclusion of the World Series. That includes decisions on club, player and mutual options, as well as eligible opt-outs.

Players whose options are declined or who exercise an opt-out can become free agents, while exercising an option keeps the player under contract for the 2027 season.

Qualifying offers are separate. Teams also have until Nov. 2 to extend them, but players who receive a qualifying offer have until Nov. 17 to accept or reject it.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB option tracker: Players, teams exercising and declining 2027 options

2026 Atlanta Braves Player Review: Chadwick Tromp

ATLANTA, GA - MAY 22: Chadwick Tromp #39 of the Atlanta Braves hits a walk-off RBI single in the eleventh inning during the game between the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on Friday, May 22, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kathryn Skeean/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

A familiar smile made a somewhat unlikely return to the big leagues with the Atlanta Braves behind the plate, as a spate of injuries caused the Braves to reach deep into their catcher depth chart before Memorial Day.

How Acquired

The Atlanta Braves first acquired Chadwick Tromp off waivers from the San Francisco Giants on September 21, 2021. In the seasons since, Tromp has been on the fringes of the big league roster as the proverbial fourth catcher on the depth chart. Seriously, the roster moves involving him have been legendary in length: DFAed in 2022 (and re-added), minor league free agency and a re-signing after the 2023 season, a DFA in early 2025, a stint with the Orioles, a stint with the Red Sox, re-added by the Braves in November 2025… you get the idea. All in all, Tromp had been a depth mainstay, spent part of the 2025 season elsewhere, but the affable Aruban played with the Braves for a fifth consecutive season in 2026. (And was part of the organization for a sixth consecutive season.)

What were the expectations?

Coming into 2026, Tromp had appeared with the Braves in every season since 2022 – beginning the the legendary “Chadwick Tromp Game” when he went 3-for-4 against the Tampa Bay Rays – but had only 28 games of action across four seasons to show for his Atlanta Braves tenure.

With catcher Sean Murphy recovering from surgery coming into 2026, Tromp’s addition made him one of two veteran options, with Sandy León, to back-up Drake Baldwin to start the season should Murphy not be ready. But, with the organization bringing in Jonah Heim in February 2026 to be Baldwin’s back-up, Tromp was relegated to the third or fourth option in the organization’s depth chart until Murphy’s return, which would have pushed him back further.

Performance-wise, Tromp has had the career of a quintessential third catcher: he can’t hit at all (career 63 wRC+, which is the result of substantially outhitting an unplayable .234 xwOBA), but he provides solid catcher defense (career +3 Statcast-based catcher runs above average in under 460 innings). That actually adds up to over 1 WAR per 600 PAs given how valuable catcher defense is, but Tromp came into 2026 with just 0.4 fWAR in 67 career games, given that no one really wants to give a bunch of playing time to a guy that can’t hit.

All of that is to say that Tromp was expected to be a staple in Gwinnett and an emergency option should something go unexpectedly wrong in Atlanta.

2026 results

Like 2021, something did go wrong, as the Braves dealt with a cacophony of injuries, leading to Tromp sharing time with León as the catcher tandem for several weeks in May.

He made 12 appearances for the Braves, including six starts, after the team traded Heim to the Athletics. Of course, that trade only happened because the Braves activated Murphy, but Murphy went right back on the shelf after a bat broke his hand on a catcher’s interference snafu… and Baldwin followed suit a week later with an injury of his own.

With the Braves, Tromp slashed a paltry .200/.192/.240 with Atlanta (11 wRC+), with surprisingly poor tiny-sample, no-meaning defense, leading to -0.1 fWAR in 27 PAs.

Tromp also had a similar lack of playing time with the Orioles, totaling 24 PAs and -0.3 fWAR; his defense “rebounded” but his bat was even worse (-39 wRC+). It was not a banner year for Tromp.

What went right?

Tromp picked-up a hit in his first 2026 at-bat with the Braves, and followed that up with another hit in his first start of the season a couple of days later. But, the highlight of his time with the Braves came on May 22, 2026 against the Washington Nationals — in what is now the new Chadwick Tromp Game. He went 2-for-3 after entering the game in the seventh inning, had a run-scoring hit in extra innings after the Braves fell behind 4-2 in the top of the tenth, and then proceeded to get the game-winning, walk-off hit for Atlanta in the 11th inning.

This performance earned him 0.46 WPA, and the walkoff hit alone was worth .392 WPA given that it came with two out. The WPA was the seventh-highest by a Braves hitter this season for a single game, and the walkoff hit itself was 12th.

Also, after he departed the Braves, he gave us this hilarious sequence with Matt Olson, featuring multiple ABS challenges and smiles all around.

What went wrong?

After his heartwarming effort against the Nats, Tromp only managed one hit — a double in a shutout loss against Boston — in his final nine games with Atlanta. Sadly, his heroics were short-lived: two days after his huge game, the Braves had the bases loaded with one out while trailing the Nationals by a run. With no other options, Tromp was up to face new pitcher Orlando Ribalta… but he struck out on four pitches.

Atlanta designated Tromp for assignment on June 4, and the veteran inked a deal with the Baltimore Orioles, just as he did in an identical situation in 2025. After nine games with the Orioles, and an IL stint, Tromp was let go by Baltimore and landed a minor league deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he ended the season at Triple-A.

2027 outlook

If the 2027 season starts on time, Tromp will turn 32 days before the regular season starts. As a veteran option who would likely play at Triple-A and give an organization depth as a third or fourth catcher, he seems likely to continue to have options for at least another five seasons.

Could that include Atlanta? Possibly. Perhaps even probably.

With Baldwin and Murphy expected to be on the big league roster in 2027, the Braves will likley need one or two veteran options in the system. Maverick Handley and Chuckie Robinson, both of whom have had cups of coffee in the big leagues, along with 2021 13th round draft choice Adam Zebrowski, are all catching options as well. That shouldn’t close the door to Tromp in ‘27, should both parties want to be dance partners again. Maybe there’ll even be a new Chadwick Tromp Game eventually.

Checking in on Rangers in the AFL

GLENDALE, AZ - OCTOBER 24: Paxton Kling #21 of the Surprise Saguaros slides into second base during the game between the Saguaros and the River Rafters at Camelback Ranch on Saturday, October 24, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Steve Chadwick/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)

We are roughly two-thirds of the way through the 2026 Arizona Fall League schedule, with the regular season having begun on October 3, and ending on November 11. The Surprise Saguaros, for whom the Rangers prospects play, is currently 12-8, a half-game back of the Peoria Javelinas for first place.

Let’s take a look at how the Rangers prospects have been faring.

Sebastian Walcott, #1 prospect in the Rangers system and consensus top prospect in the AFL, has been solid. Walcott has slashed .300/.362/.460 in 56 plate appearances over 12 games, striking out 13 times and walking 6 times. Walcott has just one homer, but does have five doubles. Also, notably, he is tied for the team lead in stolen bases, with nine, having been thrown out just once.

Paxton Kling, the Rangers’ 2025 7th rounder who spent most of the season at Hub City before moving up to Frisco for the last week of the season and the playoffs, has also performed well for Surprise. He’s slashing .326/.446/.413 in 56 plate appearances over 12 games, with 10 walks and 10 strikeouts. And remember how I said Walcott was tied for the team lead in stolen bases? Kling, who is also 9 for 10 in stolen base attempts, is the guy he is tied with.

Catcher Julian Brock has an interesting .212/.400/.273 slash line in 43 plate appearances, with 10 walks against 11 Ks. An even more fascinating slash line has been generated by second baseman Casey Cook, who is slashing .136/.457/.136 in 33 plate appearances, with 11 walks against 6 Ks.

The Rangers pitchers have had a rougher go of it. Mason McConnaughey has allowed 7 runs in 11.1 innings over four appearances, although with 18 Ks against 5 walks. The 2025 4th rounder only threw 20 innings during the minor league season in 2026, as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Jacob Johnson, a 20 year old righthander who split the 2026 season between the complex league and low-A, logging 43 innings in all, has also made four appearances. He’s allowed 10 runs in nine innings of work, walking nine and striking out nine. Its kind of an ugly line, but this was a challenging assignment for Johnson, given his limited pro experience and the fact he’s never faced players of this caliber.

J’Briell Easley has thrown 5.2 innings over five appearances, allowing six runs, walking five and striking out six. Jesus Gamez has allowed eight runs in 3.2 innings over five appearances, walking five and strking out four.

Clint Hurdle announces he is leaving the Rockies

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 22: Clint Hurdle #55 of the Colorado Rockies waves to the crowd after a tribute to his time as the manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates during the game at PNC Park on August 22, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Early Friday morning, Clint Hurdle announced that he is leaving the Colorado Rockies organization after more than 20 years of service.

Hurdle, 69, first joined the organization in 1994 as a minor league hitting instructor and was promoted to major league hitting coach in 1997, where he served until his promotion to manager in 2002.

Hurdle is perhaps best known as the manager of the 2007 Rocktober run that saw the Rockies win 13 of their last 14 games to force Game 163 (and definitely saw Matt Holliday touch home plate) on their way to eventually making their first, and so far only, World Series appearance in franchise history.

After a poor start to the 2009 season, Hurdle was fired in May and went on to join MLB Network as a studio analyst before joining the Texas Rangers organization as a hitting coach for the 2010 season. He got back into managing the following season, and served as the manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2011-2019.

After retiring from coaching, Hurdle came out of retirement to rejoin the Rockies as a special assistant to the general manager in 2021, where he served until he was named interim hitting coach on April 17, 2025 and then was subsequently named bench coach on May 11 after Bud Black and Mike Redmond were fired.

Hurdle said, “With my last day being October 31, 2026….just know that I am not retiring…but rather recalculating my journey personally and professionally.”

Shortly after Hurdle’s announcement, the Rockies thanked Hurdle for his work:

When reached for comment, a Rockies spokesperson said Hurdle and the team had “mutually parted ways.”

We at Purple Row wish Clint all the best in his next chapter!


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Phillies report cards: Orion Kerkering

Jul 28, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Orion Kerkering (50) talks with pitching coach Caleb Cotham (65) against the Miami Marlins in the eighth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There is an argument that Orion Kerkering was considered a pillar of the team’s future when he arrived in the major leagues. His electric stuff and how it messed with hitters had a deserved reputation that preceded that arrival. You probably remember his debut with the team, how emotional his father was, how feeble he made some Mets hitters look.

Amazing how one play can lead to a meltdown that can lead to open questions about the player and his future with the organization.

2026 stats

62 G, 58 IP, 23.5 K%, 12.5 BB%, 0.78 HR/9, 35.6 GB%, 4.97 ERA (4.17 FIP), 0.3 fWAR

What went right

The crazy thing about Kerkering? It’s all still there for him to be a really good reliever in the major leagues. He’s still got some peripherals stuff that is great – he doesn’t allow much hard contact, teams don’t really barrel him up often, his fastball still has some giddy-up on it.

The building blocks are still there for him to be more effective.

What went wrong

He just completely fell apart.

There was hope that he had put away his colossal error in the 2025 NLDS behind him and for the start of the season, it looked like he did. On July 28, he had an ERA below three (2.61) and was still striking out more batters than walking them. He had only given up three home runs in 41 1/3 innings to that point, so he was still counted on as a reliable bullpen arm for the Phillies. Then he gave up four runs in 2/3 of an inning on July 31 and the bottom dropped out. Over the next 16 2/3 innings, Kerkering allowed 23 runs, two home runs and saw his walk rate jump.

He just stopped throwing strikes.

Final grade: F

It’s kind of hard to comprehend how much Kerkering dropped off in 2026. The best way to look at it is through the situations he was used in. As you can see from above, Kerkering appeared in 62 games. In the first 58, the average leverage index for his appearances (aLI) was 1.31. The team had enough trust in him that they were putting him into fairly substantial parts of the game. In his final four appearances in the big leagues (granted, a HUGE difference in sample size), the same number was 0.38. They simply did not think he was trustworthy enough to put him into spots where they needed outs. That’s due to the ineffectiveness he showed when actually on the mound.

That gives him a failing grade for the year. When the team had bullpen issues and needed someone to step up and take a critical role behind Jhoan Duran, Kerkering crumbled. They didn’t even think enough of him to keep him in low leverage spots. He simply had to go.

It’s a continuation from the end of 2025 where he probably never should have been with the Phillies in the first place. Instead, the team lingered with him far too long and it cost them games.

They cannot make that same mistake again.

Yankees Birthday of the Day: Mickey Rivers

NEW YORK - CIRCA 1977: Mickey Rivers #17 of the New York Yankees runs the bases during an Major League Baseball game circa 1977 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. Rivers played for the Yankees from 1976-79. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Decades before Yankees fan favorites like Bernie Williams and Brett Gardner patrolled center field, the team featured another player who could really move: Mickey Rivers. He only played three and a half seasons with the Yankees, but “Mick the Quick” instantly became a fan favorite for his solid production as the leadoff hitter for three American League pennant-winning squads and two World Series champions.

John Milton “Mickey” Rivers
Born: October 30, 1948 (Miami, FL)
Yankees Tenure: 1976-79

Somewhat amusingly, Rivers actually got the nickname “Mickey” for his resemblance to his Aunt Mickey. He developed incredible speed in his youth with the Northwestern High School Bulls in Miami, lettering in baseball, track, football, and basketball before graduating from there in ‘67. Rivers moved on to Miami Dade College for a couple seasons, coincidentally playing alongside future Yankees teammate Bucky Dent. He became one of the finest Junior College players in history, later being named in 1999 to the National Junior College All-Century Team and the Florida Community College All-Time team.

Major League Baseball did multiple drafts per year at this time, and Rivers was drafted out of college four separate times from January of ’68 through June of ’69 by the White Sox, Mets, Senators, and ultimately, the Braves. Rivers held out long enough to play for the team closest to home, but it would not last. After hitting .307/.464/.511 with 31 steals in 67 games on the Pioneer League’s Magic Valley Cowboys, Rivers was traded for the first of three times in his career. Atlanta sought pitching help down the stretch as they sought to clinch their first division title since the move from Milwaukee in ’66, so the 20-year-old was off to Anaheim and the California Angels along with pitching prospect Clint Compton in a September 8th deal for veteran knuckleballer Hoyt Wilhelm and Bob Priddy.

Rivers spent the offseason with the Puerto Rican Winter League’s Santurce Crabbers, then jumped to Double-A El Paso at the start of the ‘70 season. He dominated the Texas League with a .343/.426/.537 triple slash, impressing the Angels enough to earn a promotion by the end of the season to the majors at age 21. Rivers split parts of the next three seasons between Salt Lake City and the Angels, clearly outclassing his peers in Triple-A, but never impressing any of the three managers to skipper the Angels from ‘71-‘73. In the final month of ‘73 though, he hit .349/.391/.457 in 141 plate appearances with eight stolen bases in 30 games. Manager Bobby Winkles’ eyes were finally opened to Rivers, and he spent all of ‘74 in the majors.

Across his first two full seasons, Rivers hit .285/.335/.373 with a 109 OPS+ and 6.8 rWAR. However, the leadoff hitter’s breakneck speed is what really made him stand out–he led the AL in triples with 11 in 118 games in ‘74, then led the majors in triple with 13 in ‘75. He finished sixth in the AL in steals in ‘74 with 30 before far surpassing that with a league-high and career-high 70 in ‘75 — still the Halos’ all-time record. Outside of Bert Campaneris and Luis Aparicio, the stolen base had become a lost art in the AL since the end of the Deadball Era; Rivers was only the second AL player to notch 70 steals in a 60-year stretch dating back to Ty Cobb’s 96 in 1915.

Yankees team president and general manager Gabe Paul had a team that contended in ’75, but could not catch up to the division-winning Red Sox. Thanks to assistant and future Hall of Fame GM Pat Gillick, Paul was able to turn the overachievers on his ’75 squad into multiple players through trades. On December 11th, he pulled off two trades that would make a huge impact on Billy Martin’s team. Starter Doc Medich was sent to the Pirates for pitchers Ken Brett and Dock Ellis in addition to unheralded second baseman Willie Randolph, and 30/30 outfielder Bobby Bonds was dealt to the Angels for Rivers and starter Ed Figueroa. Bonds impressed the Yankees in his only season with them following the controversial Bobby Murcer-for-Bobby Bonds deal, but management expressed concerns over Bonds’ alcoholism. Thus, the Yankees had their third All-Star-caliber center fielder in three years.

Rivers had actually never been named to the Midsummer Classic before, but a strong .310/.322/.448 first half with 20 doubles and 25 stolen bases earned him the only All-Star selection of his career. He proved to be the igniter the Yankees needed at the top of the batting order that year, and while he did not steal nearly as many bases as he did in ‘75, his 43 steals in 50 attempts led to a league-best 86-percent stolen base rate. Rivers also played better defense than he ever had before in his career, leading to a 6.3 rWAR season in total (fifth in the AL). He finished third in AL MVP voting for his outstanding efforts and the Yankees won the AL East to clinch their first playoff berth in 12 years. The Yankees actually voted Rivers team MVP over his teammate and captain, Thurman Munson, despite the fact that the latter was the winner of the AL MVP. The long wait plagued by horrid baseball in wake of the Stengel/Houk dynasty years was over.

The Yankees faced the Kansas City Royals in the ALCS, who were making the first playoff appearance in franchise history. Rivers had a multi-hit game in the opener, and both times, the Yankees’ offense brought him home; they won 4-1. The Royals cooled him off in the next three games, holding him to two singles and a walk in 14 plate appearances, helping them knot the series and bring it to a decisive Game 5. Rivers came up big in this must-win game, going 4-for-5 with a triple with three runs scored out of the Yankees’ seven. When cleanup hitter Chris Chambliss’ solo homer off Mark Littell sailed over the wall in the bottom of the ninth, bedlam erupted. The Yankees were going to the World Series and Rivers was off to his first Fall Classic.

The World Series was a huge letdown from the exciting ALCS. The Cincinnati Reds’ dominant “Big Red Machine” destroyed the Yankees in a four-game sweep. The fact that Reds pitchers limited Rivers to just a trio of hits in 18 plate appearances was crucial to their victory. During this time, Rivers’ off-the-field problems really started to crop up. He would gamble away his paycheck almost immediately after receiving it, and his wife Mary even requested that George Steinbrenner mail his checks directly to her. In the middle of the World Series, she took her wrath out on Rivers in the Yankees’ parking lot, where she literally played bumper cars. It was a terrible distraction to the team and drove Steinbrenner nuts.

On the plus side, Rivers had a season nearly as great as his ’76 in ’77, accompanied by another stellar performance in the ALCS against Kansas City. He pummeled Royals pitching for nine hits and a .391 average as the Yankees proceeded to their second consecutive World Series.

Rivers slumped again to a .222/.222/.296 triple slash against the Dodgers, but he did have a defensive highlight in throwing Steve Garvey out at the plate in the opener. The Yankees prevailed to win it all behind World Series MVP Reggie Jackson. Rivers and Jackson had an interesting dynamic together. Jackson told reporters one time that Rivers should learn how to read and write, to which Rivers replied, “You’d better stop readin’ and writing’ and start hittin’!” On another occasion, Jackson told reporters that he had an IQ of 160, and Rivers quipped back, “Out of what, a thousand?”

Rivers slumped to slightly below league average offensively in ‘78, especially struggling as the Yankees fell 14.5 games behind the Red Sox in the AL East. In the second half though, he recovered with an improved .270/.309/.410 triple slash, featuring 19 doubles and 15 steals. He was even better in the playoffs when the Yankees passed the Red Sox to capture the AL East in a one-game playoff. Rivers had his finest overall postseason to date, batting .379/.419/.379 in nine games, finally complementing another superb ALCS (.455/.538/.455 in four games) with a solid World Series against the Dodgers. Rivers was a champion for the second time in his career.

Rivers was off to another mediocre start in ’79 (98 OPS+), and on August 1st, the Yankees dealt away their embattled center fielder to the Texas Rangers in an eight-player deal to reacquire Oscar Gamble. He was still a decent player, but the Yankees had grown tired of his off-the-field problems, and they longed to bring Rivers’ former teammate Gamble back after letting him go following his ’76 season. The deal worked out for both teams, as Gamble played five and a half more years in New York with a 143 OPS+ (albeit somewhat part-time), and Rivers set the Rangers’ single-season record for hits in 1980 with 210, a mark that lasted for 35 years until Michael Young broke it with 221 in 2005. Texas baseball writers selected him as the Rangers’ Player of the Year in ’80.

Rivers hit .303/.327/.397 over the next five and a half seasons with the Rangers, but his caliber of play precipitously fell after his age-32 season in ‘81. His amusing line about season goals of “hitting .300, scoring 100 runs, and staying injury-prone,” was only 33 percent fulfilled … by the last “goal.” His speed declined, as he only stole 48 bases throughout his Texas career, and he played only 115 games from ‘82-‘83. After a modest comeback to a 93 OPS+ in 102 games in ‘84, he called it quits at age 35. Rivers retired as a .295/.327/.397 hitting in 1,468 games over 15 seasons with 267 stolen bases and 32.3 rWAR to his name.

Since retiring, Rivers returned home to Florida, where he brought his interest of racehorses to a healthier state, preferring to raise them rather than gamble away his earnings on them. He’s been a constant presence at Old Timers’ Day since ‘88 (when he amusingly only 39), and he was inducted into the Texas Baseball Hall of Fame in ‘95. Bill James ranked Rivers the 59th-greatest center fielder in MLB history in his 2002 Historical Baseball Abstract. We placed him 92nd on our most recent edition of the top Yankees in franchise history.

Rivers had quite the up-and-down Yankees tenure, but throughout it all, he was a crucial addition to the Yankees’ lineup. Without their sparkplug, it’s unclear whether or not the Yankees could have reached the great heights as back-to-back champions in the late-‘70s.

Here’s hoping that the 1978 champion “Mick the Quick” has an appropriately wonderful 78th birthday!


See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

A few thoughts about the Cubs and Trent Thornton

Trent Thornton is almost the definition of “fungible reliever.”

After a few middling years in Toronto, Thornton wound up traded to the Mariners near the deadline in 2023. There, he produced a very good second half and another solid year in 2024 before suffering an Achilles injury in 2025, which had him miss the last two months of that season.

He left the Mariners as a free agent after the 2025 season and the Cubs signed him last offseason to a one-year, $1 million deal. He was still rehabbing from the Achilles injury as the 2026 season began, so his first MLB appearance for the Cubs wasn’t until early May.

And that was when he began to put up solid outing after solid outing. Every now and then he’d have a clunker, but in 41 appearances through Aug. 26, Thornton posted a 2.32 ERA and 1.055 WHIP, with only four home runs allowed in 42.2 innings.

Then came a disastrous game Aug. 28 against the Reds, in which he gave up five runs and coughed up a lead. Two home runs were hit off him while he recorded only two outs.

Overall, Thornton’s numbers were a little bit better than he pitched in Seattle in 2024: 3.35 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 0.7 bWAR. He didn’t strike out many — just a 15.8 percent K rate.

That might be the reason to pass on keeping Thornton. As we all know, the Cubs bullpen needs guys who can throw 98+, like so many other teams have, and Thornton, who turned 33 in September, isn’t likely to be that guy. He wouldn’t be expensive; with that $1 million deal for 2025, it probably wouldn’t cost that much more to keep him. But I think I’d pass.

That concludes this series on the 17 Cubs who are either free agents or who have various forms of options for 2027. Next week I’ll begin a series on free agents the team should be interested in.

MLB Offseason Calendar 2026-27: Key dates, free agency and lockout questions answered

The 2026 MLB season is officially over after the Milwaukee Brewers were crowned World Series champions on Wednesday night. That would usually begin our transition into an offseason of 40-man roster decisions, free agent signings, trade rumors leading into spring training. However, this will not be a typical offseason.

Instead, the black cloud lingering over this offseason is an expiring collective bargaining agreement and a potential lockout over the discrepancies between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association over the need for, and implementation of, a salary cap and floor system. As a result, the normal process of projecting free agent deals and trade targets has been replaced with wondering how many games of the 2027 season might be missed and what the future salary structure of the league will look like.

Yet, we do still have an MLB offseason to navigate, and we're here to give you the key dates you need to have circled as we head into an uncertain few months.

Before diving into the biggest questions surrounding an uncertain MLB offseason, here's a quick look at the important dates and deadlines to know for 2026-27.

  • October 29: Players become free agents, trades once again allowed for players on 40-man rosters
  • November 1–17: Major MLB awards announced, including Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP
  • November 2: Deadline for teams to exercise contract options, extend qualifying offers
  • November 2 at 5 p.m. ET: MLB free agents can begin signing with other teams
  • November 10-12: General Manager Meetings
  • November 17: Deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offers
  • November 17: Deadline to protect eligible players from the Rule 5 Draft
  • November 17-19: MLB Owners Meetings
  • November 20: Non-tender deadline
  • December 1: Current MLB collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET
  • December 2: Potential lockout begins
  • February 19, 2027: Scheduled start of MLB spring training games (subject to CBA negotiations)

When will we know if there is an MLB lockout?

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1st. If there has not been an agreement by then, team executives, coaches, training staff, everybody will be prohibited from communicating with any player on the 40-man roster. Yes, that does mean that minor leaguers not on the 40-man roster would be able to have a normal offseason and even to begin their minor league season on time.

At this rate, it seems all but certain that there will be a work stoppage and a lockout on December 2. The question is how long that lockout might last and whether it will impact the 2027 regular season.

What can happen before a potential MLB lockout?

Anything. Teams are free to make any normal moves they would during an offseason. In fact, the Red Sox and Athletics already made a trade on Thursday. It wasn't a major trade, but it was part of the typical roster clean-up that we see each MLB offseason.

All MLB teams have five days from the end of the World Series to finalize their 40-man roster. Since there is no 60-day injured list in the off-season, that means every team will need to activate all the players who ended the season on the 60-day injured list and add them to the 40-man roster. They will then need to either waive, designate for assignment, or trade any remaining players until that total sits at 40 players. Players who are waived or designated for assignment can choose to stay in the organization at Triple-A if they clear waivers, or they can become free agents. This is why Boston traded Nate Eaton, who was on the 40-man roster, to the Athletics for a low-level minor league pitcher. You'll see a bunch of teams make similar moves over the weekend.

When does 2026-27 MLB Free Agency start?

Technically, it already has. After the World Series ends, MLB teams have five days to negotiate with their own free agents. After that five-day period ends, players are allowed to sign with any team. That means that Monday will be the final day teams can negotiate with their own free agents. Starting at 5 p.m. ET on Monday, players can begin signing with other teams.

Since players and teams have no idea what the MLB's salary structure and economic model will be in the new CBA, we should expect a flurry of signings in the month of November. The last time the CBA expired, in December 2021, there were plenty of moves before the deadline because players wanted to have financial security and teams wanted to have a roster in place just in case the negotiations lasted right up until the beginning of the season. Also, teams that sign players early in November can communicate with them for an entire month, bring them to their facilities, and create offseason training/workout plans before they are forced to go dark by the lockout.

What is the qualifying offer this season?

Teams can extend a qualifying offer to a player within the same five-day deadline that they can negotiate with their own free agents. The qualifying offer for 2027 is a one-year, $23.15 million deal.

How long is the 2026-27 MLB Offseason?

Unfortunately, there is no answer to that question this season. As of now, 2027 MLB Spring Training is officially set to begin games on February 19, with players reporting earlier that month. However, none of that will happen until a new CBA has been agreed upon. Back in 2021-22, there was a lockout in the offseason but no regular season games were missed. Perhaps that's the case again this year.

This also means the annual Winter Meetings, which are set to be held in December, will surely be canceled. Instead, executives from all 30 teams will meet in Las Vegas in the middle of November (November 10-12) to negotiate the CBA in person as well as feel out other teams' interest in trades.

What will happen to the Rule 5 Draft?

This part is less clear. The Rule 5 Draft is centered around a rule that players who signed with a team at 18 years old or younger must be added to the 40-man roster within five seasons of signing. Players who are signed at 19 years old or older need to be added within four years. If they are not, they are eligible to be selected by any other organization in the Rule 5 Draft. They must then remain on the active MLB roster (or the injured list) for the entirety of the season or be offered back to their original team. Teams must add players to the 40-man roster by November 17 to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft.

That draft is usually held during the Winter Meetings, and if those are canceled, it would stand to reason that the Rule 5 Draft might be too, as it was in 2021. There is a minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft, and that would still proceed.

When are 2026 MLB Awards announced?

  • November 1: Rawlings Gold Glove Awards
  • November 6: Platinum Glove Awards
  • November 9: BBWAA Rookie of the Year Awards
  • November 10: BBWAA Manager of the Year Awards
  • November 11: BBWAA Cy Young Awards
  • November 11: All-MLB Teams, Reliever of the Year Awards, Comeback Player of the Year Awards, and Outstanding Designated Hitter Awards
  • November 12: BBWAA MVP Awards
  • November 17: Silver Slugger Awards

Why is the MLB set to face a lockout?

This is a more nuanced question, and The Athletic has a great breakdown of it here. The short answer is that the owners want a salary cap and floor with the argument of creating more parity. Owners are faced with rising costs of player salaries and operations, while local media money is no longer in such large supply in all markets, and they want to ensure their enterprises can stay profitable, which is made easier when you can prevent salaries from getting too large.

As a result, MLB wants teams to be limited to a $245.3 million payroll in 2027, with a minimum of $154.1 million. That would also require teams to meet a multi-year "floor" salary that would be assigned for each season. Many teams this season, including the Guardians, who made it to the ALCS, were below what the salary floor would be, while teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, etc. were all above the top of the cap.

The issue is that we just saw the smallest market team in the entire league win the World Series, which hurts the argument for increased parity. Additionally, the proposed cap would also deliver less overall money to players than they make today. It would also create a fixed set of money that can be distributed to the players that would be predefined and unchanged even if the labor market changes. There would be new limits on the lengths of contracts and the value of contracts, and many players are worried that star players would still make a sizable amount of money, and the result would be that the vast majority of players in the league would have to take a significant salary hit.

As it stands now, the two sides are extremely far apart, and a deal doesn't seem likely by the December 1 deadline. However, MLB has not missed regular season games due to a work stoppage since the 1994-95 strike. In 2022, games were rescheduled when Opening Day was moved from March 31 to April 7, but no games were missed. When games are missed, both the players and owners lose money, and since the owners and the league are hoping to negotiate new TV rights deals after the CBA is agreed to, it would be detrimental to them to take current games away from these TV stations with a lockout.

So, could we miss games in the 2027 regular season? Yes, but both sides have plenty of reasons to avoid having that happen.

Friday morning Rangers things

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 12: Joc Pederson #3 of the Texas Rangers warms up on deck during the first inning of the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on September 12, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning, LSB.

Evan Grant writes that the Rangers will likely wait out labor negotiations before attempting to fill the holes on their roster, which Grant calls a dangerous path.

Kennedi Landry takes a look at four Rangers who could walk away with some hardware after the 2026 season.

The Athletic provides this handy lockout survival guide, might wanna bookmark that one.

And can the Brewers become a small market dynasty?

That’s all for this morning. Smell ya later.

Napkin Math: Too Early Projections for the 2027 Mariners

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 26: Kade Anderson #13 of the Seattle Mariners comes out of the game after getting hit in the arm with the ball during the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park on September 26, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Mariners need a lot to go right to get back to the postseason. A lot will probably go right.

One of the things I pointed out in my season recap was that the Mariners are in a tricky spot, in terms of looking ahead. They posted 30.1 fWAR as a team in 2026, which ranked 21st in the majors, and 5.5 of that came from Randy Arozarena. Level performance across the board in 2027 would make the Mariners a bottom five group. Not only that, but to return to the postseason, the Mariners would need to add roughly 15 WAR, from internal improvements and external additions, an amount that feels insurmountable after an all-time bad season. As I wrote at the time:

“… that’s just to get back to mere Wild Card contenders. A bad injury, an underperformance, a failed development, a frowning pythagorus, and the Mariners are out of the playoff picture, firmly trending into a rebuild after six years of a 10-year plan.”

Today, I want to walk through that math, and present the good, great, and horrifying scenarios I see on the back of my napkin.

I took the top nine hitters for 2027 currently on the roster. It works out that this could very well be the Mariners starting lineup on Opening Day. I also found the WAR for the rest of the roster — that is, the “not-top nine.” I don’t much feel like putting names to that group yet, but for the sake of budgeting WAR, we need to remember that bench players typically aren’t very good and subtract some value.

We can see the top nine posted 11.3 WAR in 2026. That is deeply concerning. Obviously, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez were shells of themselves due to injury, and Josh Naylor and Brendan Donovan were similarly disappointing. But this total also reflects the Mariners are set to give three spots to 2 1/2 rookies. There’s tons of uncertainty about this group, and if they repeat their performance again, it’ll be one of the worst lineups in the majors.

Of course, roughly seven months ago, the projections were far friendlier. The ZiPS column you see here isn’t the latest in ZiPS Technology. It’s instead year two of Dan Syzmorski’s three-year rolling projection he released last December. In other words, it’s old data and missing the latest sample, but I think it’s worth looking at retrospectively. ZiPS once thought these batters to be among the best in the majors.

Now, I also included a third column here, where I sort of make my own guess (heavy emphasis on the “guess”). I came up with about 22.8 WAR, a notable drop from ZiPS but still enough to rank them roughly eighth in 2027.

I gave the assumption that Cal and Julio would each bounce back, though I didn’t think too hard about what that might look like and just gave them 10 total WAR. Donovan I walked back from ZiPS because of injury concerns. I also assumed solid seasons for Naylor, Cole Young, and Dominic Canzone. The bigger question mark is the 2 1/2 rookies. I’m fairly bullish on them overall, and gave them a total of 5 WAR, but I think you could make the case for more.

I did the same with the pitchers. Now, here I have a bit of a treat for you. In my brief tenure at FanGraphs, I wrote about Kade Anderson. While doing so, Syzmborski generously granted me an updated version of his ZiPS model for Mariners pitchers. So rather than being from pre-2026, these figures are roughly from August. His model is still quite impressed with this group.

Personally, I gave Bryan Woo a level performance for his third consecutive four-win season. I gave modest bounce backs to Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, though a step back for Emerson Hancock. I don’t know what to make of Bryce Miller and his tenuous health, and I figured 0.5 is probably what he’d earn out of the bullpen. I also just deferred to ZiPS on Kade Anderson. The bullpen I tried not to think too hard about.

Ultimately, I projected the Mariners at 17.1 WAR for 2027. That would also rank about eighth in the majors, and I think there’s room for optimism if you want to see more. I fear I’ve under projected Anderson by half — I was very, very impressed by his final few starts. I’m also not even projecting Ryan Sloan, and it’s possible he could be the top pitching prospect in baseball come spring.

On the other hand, the Mariners were the very worst pitching staff in the majors in the second half. If we assume that’s a better representation of their true talent, I’m over-projecting them by like 15 WAR. I don’t think that’s the case, but even something in the middle would be hard to overcome.

The Mariners’ roster as currently assembled was once projected for 43.4 WAR, making them one of the five best teams in the majors. If we hedge that projection for what we saw in 2026, they still look like a roughly 40-WAR team. That’s roughly where they’ve been entering the last several seasons, and is generally good news for those looking for a bounce back.

Where could they add? Probably everywhere. They could use another starting infielder. They could upgrade the bench and try to limit some of the negative value there. The bullpen remains barren and there are tons of good options available in free agency. I might even suggest another arm in the rotation, after seeing what happened down the stretch in 2026. That’s what’s exciting about the roster as it stands: It’s young, it’s projectable, and there are still tons of holes. A few good additions, a few bounce backs, and a few positive developments would not only represent a return to form, but would make the Mariners truly one of the best teams in the majors. The scaffolding for greatness is still there.

Still, this group, as it stands, posted 23.1 WAR last year. Most of that came during the first three months of the season. Level performance in 2027 would make this one of the worst teams in the majors. Heck, even a solid amount of improvement only gets them back to last year’s mark of 30 WAR (again, Arozarena did a ton to stave off an absolute worst-case scenario).

And so, the offseason begins at the crossroads for the organization. One way is dynasty, the other a cliff.

What is your off-season plan for the Royals for 2027?

KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 28: Majority owner John Sherman of the Kansas City Royals looks on prior to the game between the Minnesota Twins and the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Thursday, March 28, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Kyle Rivas/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Royals need a lot of work after losing 93 games last year. There will likely be a flurry of action this month before the labor deal expires in December. What would you do if you were running the Royals this offseason?

The Royals currently have 35 players on the 40-man roster.

Catchers (2): Carter Jensen, Salvador Perez

Infielders (6): Maikel Garcia, Nick Loftin, Michael Massey, Vinnie Pasquantino, Tyler Tolbert, Bobby Witt Jr.

Outfielders (5): Jac Caglianone, Isaac Collins, Kyle Isbel, Matthew Lugo, John Rave

Pitchers (22): Ryan Bergert, Spencer Bivens, Noah Cameron, Steven Cruz, Jose Cuas, Randy Dobnak, Carlos Estévez, Carlos Durán, Lucas Erceg, Tony Gonsolin, Anthony Gose, Nolan Hoffman, Ben Kudrna, Seth Lugo, Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, Nate Pearson, Mitch Spence, Connor Thomas, Michael Wacha, Beck Way, Steven Zobac

Luinder Avila, Stephen Kolek, Nick Mears, and Cole Ragans will be activated from the 60-day Injured List and will join the 40-man roster soon. Carson Roccaforte and Lucas Braun need to be added to the 40-man roster, and you may want to add Brett Squires, Gavin Cross, Felix Arronde, and/or Daniel Vazquez, among other players. Do you add any of them and who do you remove?

The Royals have a $13 million club option on closer Carlos Estévez with a $2 million buyout, and a $2.5 million club option on Tony Gonsolin. Do you exercise either of those?

The Royals have nine players eligible for arbitration with the following projected salaries.

  • Randy Dobnak $2,300,000
  • Lucas Erceg $2,300,000
  • Anthony Gose $1,100,000
  • Kyle Isbel $3,500,000
  • Daniel Lynch IV $1,800,000
  • Michael Massey $3,200,000
  • James McArthur $800,000
  • Nick Mears $2,200,000
  • Nate Pearson, $2,000,000

Do you non-tender any of them?

The Royals have seven players under contract for next year.

  • Seth Lugo $21.5 million
  • Bobby Witt Jr. $20.111 million
  • Michael Wacha $14 million
  • Cole Ragans $7.583 million
  • Maikel Garcia $7.26 million
  • Vinnie Pasquantino $6.9 million
  • Salvador Perez $6.5 million

Those salaries total just over $83 million. Combine them with your arbitration-eligible salaries, any buyouts, and the salaries of pre-arbitration players. Owner John Sherman projects around $30 million for the team to spend this offseason. Here is a list of eligible free agents. Who do you pursue?

Would you have the Royals active on the trade market? You can use the Trade Simulator at Baseball Trade Values to get an idea of what would be a fair trade.

What does your offseason look like to get the Royals back to contention?