Tyler Callihan is the #18 prospect in the Cincinnati Reds system!

CINCINNATI, OHIO - MAY 03: Tyler Callihan #32 of the Cincinnati Reds hits an RBI single during the second inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Great American Ball Park on May 03, 2025 in Cincinnati, Ohio. This was Callihan's first career hit. (Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Tyler Callihan was playing the best baseball of his career in early 2025. After reaching AAA Louisville for a cameo at the end of 2024 (and raking during it), he began 2025 at the highest level of the minors and picked up right where he’d left off.

He mashed to the tune of .303/.410/.528 across 106 PA, showing the gap power and patience at the plate that have been his calling cards (when healthy) all through his pro career to date. That earned him a call-up to the Cincinnati Reds, one that went awry almost immediately when he dove for a ball in the outfield corner and broke his arm in two to nine places, ending his season.

Several surgeries later, Callihan is reportedly back in action and ready to compete again for a spot on the Reds roster, and will do so in 2025 in his age-26 season after being drafted by the Reds all the way back in the 3rd round of the 2019 MLB Draft.

He’s the #18 prospect in this year’s Community Prospect Rankings, earning that honor after dominating the vote in a busy, crowded ballot.

In The Lab: Astros Fielding Numbers

In the last week, we talked about platoon splits for the various Astros position players, but platoon splits are only part of the equation. One of the more fascinating parts of sabermetrics is looking at how our conception of the game has changed over the years. If you watched the movie “Moneyball” you probably heard him utter, “his fielding does not matter.” That was an even bigger theme in the book. The entire message was that when teams make lineup decisions placing more value on defense than offense then they were doing it wrong.

I am ashamed to say I said something similar in one of my first books. I’d have to go back and look at how I said it exactly, but it pretty much echoed what Billy Beane had said. Were we idiots? I suppose that is a fair way to think of it, but I would prefer to say we were not informed or simply didn’t have enough data. That particular book was published in 2004. We have learned a ton since then and any team discounting fielding does so at its own peril.

Fielding and hitting are still two very different things and there is not one universal metric that is universally accepted as the go to metric for fielding. We will look at three different sources in this piece, but there are more. Furthermore, we can be sure that each team has their own internal metric that they use. So, what we will see here is not meant to be gospel. In fact, these numbers will demonstrate how evaluating fielding is still very much in the eye of the beholder. This is even for those that use data regularly.

Before we bust out the numbers, I should note that a number of people are familiar with WAR without necessarily understanding its components. A replacement level player is not an average big league player. That is the first misconception. A player with zero WAR would be a typical everyday player in AAA. That is true with hitting and with fielding. A player with zero runs in any particular category is average. Average is better than replacement level. Obviously, how much better depends on the number of innings and the particular formula.

In a 1200 inning season, we could surmise that the replacement level fielder would actually be closer to -10 at a position. Of course, that changes depending on the position. The positions up the middle are worth more than the positions on the corners. There is a ton of math involved and I don’t want to get bogged down in the gory details. What we will do is look at the raw numbers in the first table and then convert those into a 1200 inning season to see what each player’s value would be over a full season.

Actual Numbers

INNDRSOAAFRV
Yainer Diaz C9901N/A-3
Christian Walker 1B1316-722
Jose Altuve 2B499-801
Jose Altuve LF371-10-5-5
Isaac Paredes 3B766-4-3-2
Carlos Correa 3B417-221
Jeremy Pena SS1061586
Nick Allen IF1070121712
Yordan Alvarez LF116-1-1-1
Jake Meyers CF844598
Cam Smith RF10791210
Jesus Sanchez OF9777-10

It should be noted that I did not include Carlos Correa’s innings at shortstop because he is not likely to play shortstop this season. Paredes has innings at third base, but he is likely to play the bulk of his time at first base and/or second base. Sanchez played most of his time in right field, but theoretically could also play some left field. Nick Allen played mostly shortstop, but also logged some innings at second base.

Our three sources for fielding can all be found at fangraphs.com. DRS stands for defensive runs saved. It is the metric from the Fielding Bible and uses video scouting to rate plays and how likely a player was to successfully field it. OAA stands for Outs above average. That and Fielding run value are Statcast numbers which do not rely on humans, so they are more systematic in their methods.

I try not to judge between the three because just the simple act of choosing one over the other introduces bias. It also leaves us open to cherry picking. For instance, I could say I love DRS for Smith and Sanchez, but prefer OAA or FRV for almost everyone else. What we can say is that teams probably gravitate to one of these over the others and without knowing which one we should simply report them all and let the chips fall where they may.

When we convert these to 1200 innings we are creating a math problem. By sheer definition, only eight of these guys could possibly reach 1200 innings and given the balanced nature of the Astros lineup, it is quite possible that none of these guys reach 1200 innings. However, looking at a real estimated run value helps drive home the relative cost or benefit of playing any of these guys for 150 games.

Per 1200 Innings

DRSOAAFRV
Yainer Diaz1N/A-4
Christian Walker-622
Jose Altuve 2B-190-2
Jose Altuve LF-32-16-16
Carlos Correa-663
Isaac Paredes-6-5-3
Jeremy Pena697
Nick Allen131913
Yordan Alvarez-10-10-10
Jake Meyers71311
Cam Smith1310
Jesus Sanchez9-10

Like we said, the above mathematically can’t happen. However, we show this to show what would happen if Joe Espada simply plugged in eight guys into the same positions for 150 games. That would mean choosing between second base and left field for Altuve. As you can see, neither is an appealing option. This is why we will likely see a ton of mixing and matching.

Managers must synthesize this information along with the platoon splits to cobble a lineup together on a daily basis. Additionally, they have to consider load management, whether hitters are hot and cold, and what they have done individually against that day’s pitcher. It’s a lot to consider and it is important for us to keep that in mind the next time we want to crush Joe Espada for one of his managerial decisions.

Nick Allen wasn’t an Astro last year, but he and Mauricio Dubon are similar as fielders. It should be noted that when you total the number of runs together for the actual production we get +9 for DRS, +25 for OAA, and +17 for FRV. Effectively, that means that pitchers were a collective one to three wins better with this fielding team behind them than an average fielding team. If we added the 1200 inning totals together we get -31 for DRS, +17 OAA, and -1 for FRV.

Those numbers are obviously inflated since those amount of innings are not available, but it does show that simply putting the best hitters in the lineup and closing your eyes will create an inferior fielding alignment. The question is what is the effective difference between defensive runs and how that compares with the difference between runs created offensively. That is the whole ballgame.

Which Phillies player will you be watching the closest this spring?

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 06: Otto Kemp #4 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on before game two of the National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park on October 06, 2025 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images

A player’s performance in Spring Training is not necessarily a sign of things to come. A strong performance doesn’t always portend a good season, and a poor performance doesn’t mean the season is lost. However, that doesn’t mean that a player can’t change the early narrative for his season in the spring.

There are plenty candidates for who to watch this spring in Phillies camp. Perhaps none bigger than the big three prospects of Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, and Aidan Miller. Crawford and Painter can spark some excitement and give a better idea of how they will fare with the Phillies this season, as both are expected to travel north with the team and be on the Opening Day roster. Miller isn’t expected to be a factor for the MLB team until later in the season, but perhaps a good showing and a hot start to the Triple-A season can force the issue.

There’s no lack of roster mainstays to keep an eye on either. Bryce Harper is coming off of a down season by his standards and perhaps has a bit of a chip on his shoulder thanks to some comments from Dave Dombrowski. Aaron Nola is coming off of a disaster of a season and will be much more important in the middle of a Phillies rotation that will not have Zack Wheeler at least for the first few weeks of the season. Those two players and others will be participating in the World Baseball Classic however, so they will be absent from camp for a couple weeks starting at the end of February.

But that absence means there’s more opportunities for players like Otto Kemp and even free agent signing Adolis Garcia to impress. The team has talked up Kemp at almost every opportunity this offseason and is clearly high on him. He had a mediocre rookie season and apparently suffered a knee injury that was not revealed until after the year. Kemp will be given the first chance to be Brandon Marsh’s platoon partner in left field. Garcia meanwhile figures to be the Phillies everyday right fielder after they finally move on from Nick Castellanos. Can Garcia provide hope that he has rediscovered some of his 2023 form before he likely slots into the middle of the Phillies batting order on Opening Day?

These are just a few of many interesting player storylines to follow this spring. So, which Phillies player will you be watching the closest this spring?

How many innings will Bryce Elder and Joey Wentz pitch for Atlanta in 2026?

ATLANTA, GA - JUNE 03: Braves pitchers Bryce Elder (l), Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes and Chris Sale (r) watch from the top of the dugout during the Tuesday evening MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 3, 2025 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

I’m shamelessly stealing from the comments, here.

Unless there’s a move on the rotation side, Bryce Elder will probably begin the year in Atlanta’s rotation. Joey Wentz is out of options, as is Elder. Seems reasonable — unless you’re willing to roll the dice on the Braves going in a very different direction at this point in the offseason.

Anyway, I won’t linger because you get the contours of the question. The FanGraphs Depth Chart assignment has Elder throwing 109 innings as a starter and ten in relief; for Wentz, it’s 18 innings as a starter and 34 in relief. The range of other projection systems features the combination of these two guys going about 110 to 240 innings, though you shouldn’t take the upper end of that range seriously because that’s more of a “how healthy are they?” measure than a depth chart-informed one.

My own sense is that if both guys were given free rein, they’d basically total about 100, on average, before injuries/performance saw their playing time curtailed. But they’re also somewhat competing with one another for innings provided the pitching staff health isn’t entirely a shambles, so I don’t know. 150ish might be reasonable but not exciting; I responded to said comment earlier saying that it felt like placing the over/under at 130 would be great to maximize betting, but with the Braves not signing Chris Bassitt for his fine enough deal with the Orioles, bumping that towards 170 might make more sense — at least for the time being.

Justin Verlander evolved to get back on track in 2025

Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander practices during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla. on Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While the signing of Justin Verlander is certainly exciting and nostalgic all at the same time, let’s talk about how he turned his 2025 season around, and about keeping expectations reasonable. The future Hall of Famer isn’t quite the beast he was even 3-4 years ago. Time catches up with everyone eventually, but Verlander’s willingness to keep experimenting with his approach, along with a good run of health, salvaged his 2025 season with a pretty strong finish.

A year ago things weren’t looking so hot. Back with the Houston Astros after a brief stint with the Mets in 2023, Verlander’s 2024 campaign was marred by a shoulder strain that limited him to 90 1/3 innings, and his 5.48 ERA was easily the worst mark of his career. The San Francisco Giants took a chance on him for the 2025 season, and for a few months, it looked possible that he was in his final season. With pedestrian strikeout and walk rates, another minor injury, and a few too many home runs allowed, Verlander produced a 4.70 in the first half of the season. His slider was still effective and his velocity was intact, but hitters were teeing off on his fastball and curveball to an egregious degree.

Verlander managed to shake off the neck strain in June and July, and as it turned out, he had a few more tricks up his sleeve. Adjustments he started in June were refined over the All-Star break, and he came back out for the second half, cut the home run rate down dramatically, and started collecting more whiffs and weak contact. A 2.99 ERA with a 3.47 FIP after the All-Star break says he figured some things out.

A nice, successful season in Detroit would see Justin Verlander throw 150 innings with a 4.00 ERA. ZIPS projections have him at a 4.24 ERA over 133 1/3 innings. We would celebrate either, but it may take some adjustment to stop expecting more. Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez are tasked with leading the way. The Tigers legend just needs to contribute good outings and hopefully have another mostly healthy season. That would be plenty, and plenty fun to witness as a fan.

We do need to check any wild expectations at the door for now. Tigers fans are used to seeing him in his prime, overpowering hitters and pitching through minor injuries, whereas this season putting him on the injured list for anything minor is the move. Ideally, you’d keep his starts short as well, especially early in the season. If the Tigers can keep Verlander relatively fresh throughout the season while getting Troy Melton, Drew Anderson, or Keider Montero a few starts in his stead, all the better.

Adjusting his delivery and angles

Two adjustments he made in 2025 were pretty straightforward. First, he started taking the ball out of his glove earlier in his delivery. The second adjustment was moving over to the third base side of the rubber. The different angles that created seemed to help his fastball, and he was still able to maintain enough deception out of the glove that hitters weren’t picking up any early visual cues.

Starting his arm motion a little earlier, as opposed to gripping the ball in the glove belt high until well into his leg kick may have helped keep him in rhythm. The late hand-glove separation he’s often used in his career required a quicker move early in his arm path to catch up to his torso and lower half, and perhaps separating a little earlier freed his arm to catch up with the rest of his motion and get into sequence. Pitchers are always tweaking little timing mechanisms, and something about it clicked for him.

It’s also possible that he just got healthier. After some shoulder trouble in 2024, and then a neck strain in 2025 that cost him about a month in May and June, Verlander made every start from June 18 to the rest of the season, and other than getting blown up on a few occasions, was consistently good the rest of the way. Health would also explain why he was able to get back to the higher arm slot he threw from in his best years with the Astros. That alone helped him to get a bit more riding action back on his fourseamer, a few more whiffs, and fewer home run balls launched.

Sweepers and changeups

Verlander has slowly dialed back his fourseamer usage as his velocity has dipped, and a lot of that extra workload has fallen on his slider. Early in 2025 he just didn’t have much else to work with. His trusty curveball was even less effective than the fourseamer in the first half, and right-handers in particular were hitting it harder than ever before. The solution there was to develop a sweeper at 84-85 mph. Much firmer than the curveball, the sweeper still has a lot of depth, but it has a sharper bit of gloveside break, while the curve is usually close to 12-6. All things being equal, it’s better to throw a harder breaking ball. Neither pitch needs to be more than a third offering from him, and by pairing the two, hitters had a harder time squaring either of them.

By season’s end, Verlander was mixing the curveball and the sweeper in equal doses, replacing a third pitch with two solid breaking balls that look similar out of the hand. Neither is a huge swing and miss pitch, but mixing the pair made it harder for hitters to barrel them up.

2025 SplitsERAK%BB%HR/9BABIP FIP
First Half – RHH5.0819.65.41.20.3173.88
First Half – LHH4.3020.110.11.20.3154.57
Second Half – RHH3.2920.76.90.90.2863.74
Second Half – LHH2.6222.59.30.50.3173.14

While the sweeper is an interesting development, another thing that really helped Verlander squash left-handed hitters was using his circle changeup more effectively in the second half. Long-time Tigers fans will remember the early years of his career, when he routinely dropped in a straight 88-90 mph changeup. Back then, it played well mainly because the fourseam fastball was so terrifying. The version he’s started working with in recent years, and used more in the second half of 2025, is more of a classic circle change that moves away from lefties like a sinker.

Verlander threw the changeup about 14 percent of the time to left-handers in 2025, and hitters posted a downright horrendous .237 wOBA against it. He still uses all three breaking balls against lefties too, so it’s no surprise hitters weren’t looking for it often. Verlander doesn’t have a ton of confidence in throwing the changeup in the zone, but breaking out the changeup helped him handle certain hitters. Perhaps he’ll lean into that this season. It will be interesting to see if Chris Fetter and his staff has an impact on the pitch mix, or if it’s just mainly a matter of having more tools to work with so that if one pitch isn’t feeling great, he has other options to turn to in a pinch.

Don’t get too greedy

It’s fairly ridiculous to look back and compare Justin Verlander’s current fastball with its metrics 10 years ago back in 2016. At the time, in a season where the numbers say he should have won the AL Cy Young award, his fourseamer averaged 94 mph with 17.3 inches of induced vertical break. In 2025? He averaged 93.9 mph with the fourseamer, with 18.6 inches of induced vertical break. See? The old guy has really fallen off his game.

It’s interesting that he’s still getting more ride these days than he did with the Tigers in the early Statcast era in 2015-2016. The Tigers really didn’t get that higher arm slot, truer backspin, concept for a while. It took the Astros coaching staff to fully unlock it and maximize his fastball’s effectiveness. In fairness, he also got back to averaging 95+ mph from 2017-2022, along with hitting 19-20 inches of induced vertical break in that era of his career. When your fastball is that good hitters are in huge trouble. In 2022, Justin Verlander had the most valuable fastball in baseball at age 39. This man is not normal.

Verlander doesn’t get the extension down the mound that he used to, which is probably just a product of being less flexible and shortening his stride to compensate. He also isn’t holding as much back for later in a start the way he once did. It’s 92-94mph out of the gate, and then he’ll sit 94 the rest of the way while reaching back for 95-96 in tight spots. His best fastball in 2025 was 98.3 mph, and there were only eight fastballs total at 97 mph or better.

Back in the day, he would throw 92-93 mph early in a start, hoping to rack up quick outs the first time through the order. As he loosened up he’d sit 95-97 mph by the time the top of the order came up a second time, and then reach back for high 90’s and triple digits later in an outing. Verlander still shows signs of trying to do that— yes it would be fascinating to see Tarik Skubal attempt to implement this a little more, I agree—but there just aren’t as many gears available for JV these days.

In terms of secondary factors, the changes from the Giants to the Tigers defense, or from Oracle to Comerica as a home park, don’t look too significant. Verlander pitched to Patrick Bailey a lot last year, and the Giants main backstop is probably the best pitch framer in the game, so this isn’t a case where Dillon Dingler or Jake Rogers are going to give him a boost in that regard. On the other hand, the Tigers graded out a good deal better than the Giants defensively by both DRS and Outs Above Average. No doubt Verlander’s results this year will rest partly on how the his outfielders perform behind him.

The generational raw ability to pitch and drive to be one of the best ever, along with the smarts and willingness to keep making those little adjustments in all phases of the game, from diet, conditioning, pitching mechanics, to approach, have extended Justin Verlander’s career beyond anyone’s wildest dreams other than possibly his own. His legacy was secured long ago. There are already five distinct four-year eras in his career, and in the last one, he still won a Cy Young award and a World Series ring.

We can argue about what “best” means, but Verlander is the most valuable pitcher of this millenium by fWAR, 16th best all-time by fWAR, eighth all time in strikeouts at 3553 and needs just 149 more to pass Bert Blyleven for 5th all-time. He’s already fifth all-time if you count the postseason, and if you think about it, it’s weird that we don’t. In October, the top starting pitchers on playoff teams are making the highest pressure starts of the year while already at the end of their gas tank after a long season. Only Andy Petite has thrown more postseason innings in his career than Justin Verlander. But I digress.

This is the most delightful depth move in franchise history, and we shouldn’t be too greedy about it. If he’s healthy enough to get in a good groove and keep making counter adjustments to hitters, Justin Verlander will give the Tigers decent mid-rotation production, leadership, and perhaps a little extra edge. And it could be really special to watch.

The Red Sox are relying on Roman Anthony to be their primary power acquisition

The ZiPS projections are out, and they’re not impressed with the thump — or lack thereof — in the Red Sox lineup. If you visit Fangraphs and sort these individual player projections by home runs, you have to go all the way down to a tie for 127th to find the first name in a Red Sox uniform.

More specifically, Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, and Wilyer Abreu are each projected to hit 18 home runs and lead a lineup with no clear alpha dog. For comparison, the Yankees have seven different players projected to hit at least 20 home runs in 2026 according to ZiPS.

Meanwhile, the top of the board spanning all of MLB is littered with guys who were just available in free agency and the Red Sox could have signed to fix this problem. This includes Kyle Schwarber (second at 43 home runs), Pete Alonso (fifth at 38 home runs), and Eugenio Suarez (eighth at 35 homes runs). (For anybody wondering, Rafael Devers comes in at a tie for 14th on this list and is projected to hit 30 home runs.)

So now for the real important question: How much does this matter?

Well, if recent history is any indication, quite a bit. Below is a list of the last 25 World Series champions (every team since the turn of the century minus the COVID season in 2020), the hitter who led the team in home runs, and how many they hit.

For the most part, there’s a pretty clear message here: You need at least one guy who can go deep 30 or more times. Not just because of the obvious ability to do damage, but also because having at least one big bopper in the postseason forces the opponent to game plan and pitch around them, which often paves the way for somebody else to make them pay in expensive fashion.

The only exceptions to this rule all came in a tight six year window between 2010 and 2015, when several stars aligned at the end of the steroid era and before the more recent launch angel era. Between these two power obsessed periods, you had one complete exception to everything in the 2015 Kansas City Royals, and a trio of San Francisco Giants teams, which were not only driven by pitching, but also played in about as unfriendly of a hitting environment as you’ll find anywhere in the sport. (Their 2012 team actually ranked dead last in home runs, but that was also Buster Posey’s MVP season, so you can sort of argue this one both ways.)

In other words, either the 2026 Red Sox pitching staff better resemble those early 2010s Giants teams, or somebody better step up internally and hit 30 bombs.

There are a few candidates, including Wilyer Abreu, who hit 18 jacks last year pre All-Star break before battling injuries in the second half, and Trevor Story, who averaged 31 home runs per year in each of his first four seasons, but hasn’t hit the mark since leaving Coors Field. But there’s one candidate who truly has the upside to solve this problem.

Before downplaying things and playfully giving it back to Rob Bradford in this clip from the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast earlier this week, Anthony gives us a pretty serios “that’s the goal” quote. It’s said so matter-of-factly, it’s hard for me to believe Anthony hasn’t been pouring his focus into that all winter.

Now of course, the front office doesn’t want to publicly put that pressure on a 21-year-old kid (even though that’s exactly what they’ve done implicitly with their roster building), so you get quotes like this gem from Craig Breslow yesterday when Alex Speier of the Boston Globe asked him about the aforementioned ZiPS projections.

Uh yeah, as noted, they probably need a guy who can launch 30 home runs, not 20, and for better or worse, Roman Anthony is the guy mostly likely to fill those shoes.

Here’s Lou Merloni on Anthony being in the best shape of his life:

Putting the weight of the world on the shoulders of one of the youngest guys in the league is exactly what you shouldn’t be doing, but that’s precisely where we’re at entering 2026. Roman Anthony is already the best everyday player in Boston, and now the Red Sox need him to be a superstar. Because if he isn’t, they don’t have one in the lineup.

Orioles question of the moment: If you could change one moment in franchise history, what would it be?

TORONTO, ON - OCTOBER 04: Edwin Encarnacion #10 of the Toronto Blue Jays reacts after hitting a three-run walk-off home run in the eleventh inning to defeat the Baltimore Orioles 5-2 in the American League Wild Card game at Rogers Centre on October 4, 2016 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Being a sports fan is all about the endurance of disappointment. Odds are that your team is not going to win the championship in a given year. They aren’t going to sign or trade for the exact player you want. That prospect that has been built up for years probably won’t pan out. But you keep watching anyway because, much like pizza, even bad sports are still pretty good.

Orioles fans are plenty familiar with all of those types of failings. The 21st century has largely been a calamity for this organization. They’ve lost a lot, gone though a few rebuilds, and gotten to experience only brief moments of glory. Hopefully 2026 will be one of the better seasons we have experienced.

But before we move forward, let’s go back. The discussion today will give you, dear reader, two powers. First, you get to go back in time. And then, you can actually alter history, probably ripping a hole in the space time continuum. But let’s not get all deep about it.

Today’s question: If you could change one moment in franchise history, what would it be?

Your answer will likely depend on your age. My realm of fandom is largely contained to the last 25 years or so. I was born in 1993, so my conscious enjoyment of baseball kicked off as soon as the team got really, really bad. The 2005 Orioles scarred me, and I will always love the 2012 squad.

With that in mind, here are some of the big things that stick out in my head. Signing Chris Davis to that massive contract going into 2016 was obviously a mistake. The decision to go with Ubaldo Jiménez while Zack Britton went unused in the bullpen during the 2016 AL Wild Card Game was baffling then, and still is today. Manny Machado should have been an Oriole for life, regardless of the cost.

Slightly older fans will certainly have thoughts about Mike Mussina going to the Yankees, or the Jeffrey Meier game in 1996. And the generation before them is likely to recall the World Series losses in 1979 or ’69. All are worthy contenders here.

What do you think, Camden Chat? What moment sticks out to you as something worth altering history for? What would you change? Let us know in the comment section.

Mets Morning News: Pitchers and catchers officially report

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - MARCH 13: Francisco Lindor #12 of the New York Mets throws the ball against the Boston Red Sox in the first inning during a spring training game at Clover Park on March 13, 2025 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Meet the Mets

Francisco Lindor underwent surgery to fix the hamate injury he has been dealing with, but the Mets are optimistic he will be ready for Opening Day.

Kodai Senga has suffered some unfortunate injuries the past two seasons, and he’s hoping this is the year he will stay healthy and can be a productive member of the rotation.

There are plenty of new faces in camp both from outside the organization and rookies trying to make the team.

After a disappointing 2025 season and a revamped team heading into 2026, the Mets will need to get off to a good start or Carlos Mendoza could be facing some tough questions.

The Mets have had some dominant pitchers in their history, but who is the best pitcher of all time in the strikeout category?

Around the National League East

A panel of writers for USA Today predicted that the Braves will finish third in the NL East.

The Marlins signed lefty reliever John King to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million.

The Phillies reportedly told Nick Castellanos to not report to camp while they decide whether to trade or release the outfielder.

The Nationals signed veteran righty Miles Mikolas to a one-year contract.

Around Major League Baseball

The Orioles signed Chris Bassitt to a one-year, $18.5 million contract.

Both Corbin Carroll and Jackson Holliday also have broken hamate bones that require surgery, and it’s unclear whether they will be ready for Opening Day.

What exactly is the hamate bone, and why are so many players suffering this specific injury?

Lawyers for Guardians pitcher Luis Ortiz argue he was a victim of Emmanuel Clase’s alleged pitch rigging scheme so they should be tried separately.

The number of British coaches in Major League Baseball is continuing to climb as they try to grown the game across the pond.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Chris McShane previewed Adbert Alzolay’s season.

Steve Sypa and Lukas Vlahos shared our list of the Mets’ top 25 prospects for the 2026 season.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1992, Keith Hernandez made a guest appearance on the TV show Seinfeld.

Evan Phillips is back, bye bye Benny Biceps (again)

Just one more sleep until pitchers and catchers officially report to Dodgers Spring Training. Many of them are already in camp, itching to get that third World Series ring in a row.

One guy who is back is our favorite Honeybun, one Evan Phillips. Phillips was non-tendered in November, six months after he underwent Tommy John surgery. The quiet right-handed relief pitcher was dominate before his surgery, especially against right-handed batting. He has a 0.00 ERA in the playoffs over 12 games in five different series. Fabian Ardaya has all the details here.

Should he return to his former dominance, he will join a slightly revamped bullpen that now features Edwin Diaz as closer. When Phillips last pitched for the Dodgers, the team was mainly doing closer by committee. Phillips would be on track to join the team sometime this summer.

Unfortunately, a catcher who won’t be in Spring Training with the Dodgers (for now) is Ben Rortvedt. Benny Biceps has had quite the eventful offseason, getting DFA’d by the Dodgers, claimed by the Cincinnati Reds, being DFA’d by them, and then claimed again by the Dodgers. The hope is that this time no one claims Rortvedt and he’s able to return to Oklahoma City for some catching depth.

Bill Plunkett of the OC Register had some questions about the Dodgers as Spring Training is about to begin -who will be the main second baseman, how will the Dodgers deal with their ‘high class’ problems, who will fill out the bullpen, where’s Kike’, and how will the WBC impact the roster?

Here’s my simple answer to all of them – it will work itself out, especially the bullpen and ‘high-class’ problems. Without putting too many jinxes out there, the Dodgers always have a plethora of pitching to start the season and by the middle of the season, whatever they had originally planned in March is out the window. (Personally, I don’t think saying that is any more of a jinx than Plunkett pointing out what players have been injured in the WBC in the past).

And as far as Kiké Hernández rejoining the team, well, we all know it will happen. Since he underwent elbow surgery in the offseason, he won’t be playing with the team any time soon even if he was on the roster. Things just need to work themselves out, as they always do.

Here are all the White Sox who have committed to play in the World Baseball Classic

White Sox fans will get a sneak peek at Munetaka Murakami’s talent as he suits up for Team Japan in the WBC. | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The World Baseball Classic is right around the corner, and the White Sox will have players representing countries from around the world. Five current South Siders and one old friend will be suiting up for their teams in just a few weeks, ready to make some noise.

Sam Antonacci and Kyle Teel are packing their bags for Team Italy. Antonacci, a versatile infielding prospect (MLB No. 11) with a steady bat, might just drag the Italians through a tough pool, while Teel’s bat and athleticism give the gil Azzurri a potential game-changer at the plate.

Seranthony Domínguez gets the call for the Dominican Republic, and he’s no stranger to big moments. He’ll be a late-inning sledgehammer for a D.R. squad loaded with thunder, including Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Pick your poison. If they go deep, Domínguez could be right in the thick of it.

Curtis Mead will suit up for Australia, bringing some South Side grit down under. Australia rarely gets headlines but has quietly earned respect in past tournaments.

Munetaka Murakami, Chicago’s big-ticket offseason buy, is one of the headliners on Japan’s roster, and expectations will be sky-high with the power and big stage experience. Murakami checks a lot of boxes, and he’ll be a player to watch every time that Samurai Japan steps to the plate.

And then there’s Alexei Ramírez, forever a South Side favorite. He’s 44 now, and somehow back in a Team Cuba jersey two decades after his WBC debut in 2014. Even 10 years removed from the majors, the veteran shortstop brings experience, savvy, and baseball soul to Cuba’s lineup.

Tournament play starts with Teams Chinese Taipei and Australia in the Tokyo Dome at 10:00 p.m. ET on March 4. Team USA plays an exhibition game against the Colorado Rockies that same day at 3:10 p.m. ET at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in Scottsdale. Team USA’s official tournament play begins on March 6 at 8:00 p.m. ET versus Team Brazil on FOX.

For fans, the WBC isn’t just another tournament. It’s proof that elite baseball talent is everywhere. And for Chicago, the South Side’s fingerprints are all over the map.

The Yankees and Spencer Jones have reached a crossroads

TAMPA, FLORIDA - MARCH 16, 2025: Spencer Jones #78 of the New York Yankees bats during the eighth inning of a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 16, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

As pitchers and catchers report and teams prepare for the start of spring training, not many teams around Major League Baseball project to have a more powerful outfield than the New York Yankees in 2026. Three-time MVP Aaron Judge will continue to anchor the lineup in right field, coming off another unbelievable season: .331/.457/.688, 53 home runs, 114 RBI, .357 ISO, 18.3/23.6 BB/K%. Judge posted a wRC+ over 200 for the third time in four years, and he’ll enter the upcoming season as the most feared slugger in the sport.

The other two outfield spots were in question entering the offseason, but the Yankees were able to bring back both Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger; Grisham accepted the qualifying offer and will make $22 million in the Bronx this season, and Bellinger re-signed on a five-year, $162.5 million contract. Judge, Bellinger, and Grisham combined for 116 home runs in 2025, and after much commotion and uncertainty, all three will be returning to their starting outfield roles next season.

This was probably the best (realistic) outcome the Yankees could have hoped for, but it’s not great news for Spencer Jones, the team’s first-round pick from the 2022 MLB Draft who’s still looking for his shot in the big leagues. Jones is behind not only those three outfielders on the depth chart, but also Jasson Domínguez, who played 123 games with the Bombers last season. Despite decent offensive production, Domínguez has still not been able to secure a full-time role with those three sluggers occupying the outfield and Giancarlo Stanton firmly locked into the DH spot.

Domínguez is not even guaranteed a roster spot to open the season, which leaves Jones firmly stuck in the minor leagues, where he hit 35 home runs and stole 29 bases in 2025. Jones spent his age-24 season between Double-A and Triple-A, and while his power/speed numbers were overwhelming, he also struck out 35.4 percent of the time between the two levels. That’s an astronomical strikeout rate, and it actually came down a tick from 2024 when he struck out 36.8 percent of the time in Double-A with only half as many home runs as he hit last year. He’s one of the most toolsy prospects in baseball, but this is exactly why Jones is so polarizing around the league; there’s hit-tool risk, and then there’s whatever this is.

Many prospect analysts are firmly out on Jones because of these bright red flags, but the Yankees view him so highly because whatever this is can sometimes look incredibly special. In 49 games at Double-A last season, Jones hit 16 home runs (just one shy of his total the year prior in 73 fewer games) and stole ten bases. His walk rate jumped from 9.9 percent to 15.4 percent, his ISO went from .193 to .320, and his wRC+ ballooned to 185. In his first 114 plate appearances after his promotion to Triple-A, Jones was hitting .375/.439/.844 with 13 home runs, 10 steals, a 219 wRC+, and just a 24-percent strikeout rate. He hit the IL shortly after with a back injury and was a shell of himself the rest of the way upon return, but optimistically speaking you can make a legitimate case that the drop-off was largely due to the lingering injury.

That’s been exactly the case with Jones throughout his professional career. However you feel about him, he’s given you every reason to continue feeling that way. If he can produce anything even close to what he was doing around the end of July against big-league pitching, he should be a superstar. However, MLB pitchers are a massive step up from their minor-league counterparts, and it’s entirely possible that Jones’ hit tool is too weak for him to ever become a fixture in a big-league lineup. Jones possesses arguably the widest range of outcomes of any prospect in baseball, and that’s why most professional rankings have him in the back end of their Top 100 if he’s even included at all.

The Yankees, who don’t currently have a spot for him, seem completely unwilling to sell him at that price. Other teams have been understandably unwilling to buy him at theirs. If you believe Jon Heyman’s report, the Yankees would only consider trading Jones for a player like Paul Skenes. That simply is not happening. If there was ever a time to trade him it would’ve been last year, when Jones’ value peaked at the exact same time as the trade deadline, but it didn’t happen. Which leads to the crossroads that the Yankees and Jones find themselves at entering the 2026 season.

There is no spot for Jones in the Yankees’ lineup. Multiple injuries would need to occur for him to get a chance, and a player with a profile like his could take a long time to ramp up in his first extended look against MLB pitching. A team hunting for a pennant might not be able to provide that runway if it means eating a 40 percent strikeout rate during a long adjustment period. Jones will turn 25 in mid-May, however, and if he’s healthy and productive he needs to get a chance this year. So something’s gotta give.

The Yankees might be higher on Jones than any other organization in baseball. After they turned another 24-year-old 6-foot-7 outfielder with immense power and a scary hit tool into the greatest hitter of his generation, we can’t exactly fault them for that, but it does make trading Jones especially difficult. They’re unwilling to move him for a rental, and other teams are unwilling to invest significantly in a player who swings and misses as often as Jones does. It feels like they can’t trade him and they can’t keep him either; they can’t clear the runway for him and they can’t keep him trapped in the minors forever.

If the market for Jones around the league is lower than we think, it makes more sense for the Yankees to keep him. The argument for it is simple. At some point, they need to open Schrodinger’s box. If there’s a dead cat inside, they have enough alternative options that they can bury him in the backyard and drive over to PetSmart without it severely derailing their short-term or long-term plans. If the cat is happy and healthy, one of the best lineups in the American League could add another star player on a rookie contract or team-friendly extension for the foreseeable future. If they trade him for less than he’s worth, they could end up getting scratched for a decade.

If a deal emerges that the Yankees feel is fair value though, it might be in the best interest of the player and the organization for them to take it. Jones may be the type of player who sticks around for a while, but will require patience and a lot of trial-and-error on his journey. That journey may be better suited for a team without immediate World Series aspirations and a market less daunting than New York. If they do choose to keep him, it’s difficult but not impossible to envision a path to a full-time role.

Trent Grisham surprised everybody by accepting the qualifying offer this year, but he’ll reach a deal in free agency eventually and it likely won’t be with the Yankees. Domínguez doesn’t have the defensive ability to man center field in the Bronx long-term, which could open a path for the more speedy, taller Jones. A lot is riding on how he handles Triple-A pitching in the first few months of the season. If he looks likes the Spencer Jones of last April-July, he could force the Yankees’ hand and make his MLB debut sometime this summer. If they give him a taste of the action similar to what Domínguez had last year, he could prove himself as a long-term option by holding his own and making ample contact against big-league pitching. It’d require a lot of patience from all parties involved, but if the Yankees believe in Jones to the extent that they’ve indicated and are willing to put their money where their mouth is (both figuratively and literally), he could still end up wearing pinstripes for years to come.

Kansas City Royals news: Mayor Lucas promises a ballpark deal in 2026

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - NOVEMBER 10: Mayor of Kansas City Quinton Lucas speaks during a press conference for THUNDERGONG!, a charity benefiting the Steps of Faith Foundation, at Uptown Theater on November 10, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Kyle Rivas/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Anne Rogers writes about how Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are focusing on staying healthy.

Everything is about staying on the mound this year.

“We want to be out there,” Bubic said. “Cole is as competitive as it gets as well. We want to be out there playing with our guys every fifth day. We want to be part of it. I know we fell short of the playoffs last year, but we feel like there’s no reason we can’t get there again and succeed.”

She also has the early reports on who is in camp.

Jaylon Thompson is in camp and he talks to Kansas City native Alex Lange, now in camp as a reliever.

“Oh man, we used to go to games for five bucks,” Lange said. “Park for five bucks, eat for a dollar and go in there for dollar buck night back in the day. You know, Jermaine Dye, Mike Sweeney and all the boys back then. We followed the 2014-15 teams through their runs while in high school. It was pretty special. “So, I mean, we were going to 10 games a year just enjoying it and having a good time.”

He also writes about the setbacks that cost James McArthur all of last season.

McArthur missed the entirety of Royals spring training — and ultimately the season — in 2025. The medical staff worked to understand what led to his continued discomfort. At first, McArthur had one of his screws removed due to the belief it was in a bad spot.

“I was super puffy,” McArthur said. “I don’t want to get too deep into it, but it’s just like when they saw the image, they could see stuff in my elbow and they were like, ‘This isn’t normal.’ And their only thought or best guess through imaging was that it was like bone chipping from the screw head that was sticking out of the bone just a touch.”

Pete Grathoff writes that Bobby Witt Jr.’s puppy was one of the first ones in camp.

David Lesky projects which pitchers will make the roster.

I think there are some definite trade candidates in here. I know I’ve been saying they might move Schreiber all winter, but I just remember Picollo talking about Mears the same way he talks about Schreiber and think that the bullpen probably only needs one of them. I mentioned Avila and Cruz, but Neris is an interesting pickup on a minor league deal. He struggled last year with three teams, pitching to a 6.75 ERA, 5.35 FIP and 4.59 xERA. Maybe he’s toast as he’s entering his age-37 season, but he still got plenty of strikeouts. My guess is he doesn’t show enough, but you never know, I guess.

In his annual State of the City address, Mayor Quinton Lucas pledged to get a stadium deal done with the Royals this year.

“We will get a deal done in 2026 that’s fair and transparent for our taxpayers, our future, and our team,” Lucas said….

Lucas said he wouldn’t speak for the Royals, but said he thinks downtown checks all the boxes.

“We’ve kept strong relationships with the Kansas City Royals throughout the process,” he said. “So I have to say, I will never speak for them. I think they have important decisions to make, but I think in making a transformational decision, not just for the team but for this entire region.”

Philip Ruo at Royals Keep wonders if the Royals have done enough to compete in 2026.

Patrick Glancy at Powder Blue Nostalgia writes about the Royals games he attended in 2025.

The Cubs sign former Royals pitcher Kyle Wright to a minor league deal.

The Nationals sign pitcher Miles Mikolas to a one-year, $2.25 million deal.

The Orioles sign pitcher Chris Bassitt to a one-year, $18.5 million contract.

The Twins sign reliever Liam Hendriks to a minor league deal.

Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday has a broken hamate bone and will miss the start of the season.

Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll also has a broken hamate.

Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor will have surgery on his hamate bone.

What is the hamate anyway?

The Astros and Pirates have discussed a Joey Bart trade.

The young players who could be getting contract extensions soon.

Carson Roccaforte is among the hitters whose ZIPS projection has improved the most over last year.

Phillies pitcher Zach Wheeler keeps his surgically removed rib as a memento from his thoracic outlet surgery.

Iowa lawmakers make their pitch to lure the Bears from Chicago.

Candace Parker, Blake Griffin, and A’mare Stoudamire are among the finalists for this year’s Basketball Hall of Fame class.

NASA finds Jupiter is a tiny bit smaller than we previously thought.

Ring’s Super Bowl ad has sparked concerns about privacy and surveillance.

Why do we like music?

Your song of the day is Pavement with Rattled by the Rush.

What do fans think is going to be the 2026 Giants’ biggest weakness?

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 11: A detailed view of the cap and baseball glove belonging to Willy Adames #2 of the San Francisco Giants is seen in the dugout prior to the start of the game against the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park on August 11, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning baseball fans!

As we approach Spring Training and the beginning of the season, we’re going to be doing some questions for y’all about your thoughts about the San Francisco Giants and baseball in general!

Today’s question: What is going to be the 2026 Giants’ biggest weakness?

Yes, I know Spring Training has only just begun. But as the team stands right now, after all of the moves that have been made thus far to improve the roster, what would you consider to be their biggest weakness?

I’m pretty awful at judging this kind of thing. So don’t take my opinion as anything other than just that, an opinion. But I think my answer would have to be the rotation.

I had expected them to be more aggressive on that front in the offseason. And to be fair, they did address it. To a degree. The additions of Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser were not nothing.

But I don’t yet share the same optimism the team may have had in these additions. I think they are both coming off of good seasons, but I also think those seasons may have been outliers. And I’ve seen how the organization tends to put all their eggs in the basket of those outliers continuing. So I have concerns.

Behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, I don’t yet have a high level of confidence. And I’m going to emphasize that “yet” because I’d be happy to be proven wrong!

What is going to be the 2026 Giants’ biggest weakness?

Tink Hence is your #10 St. Louis Cardinals prospect

JUPITER, - MARCH 15: Tink Hence #12 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches during the 2024 Spring Breakout Game between the Miami Marlins and the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on Friday, March 15, 2024 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Scott Audette/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

For the fourth straight season, Tink Hence has made the VEB top prospects list and he’s been a top 10 player every season. I think he was actually top 5 in the previous three years. Some of that is because Hence’s health issues have become a little more concerning, but if you took the exact type of prospect Hence is now and tried to place him in past years’ list, I think he’d rank higher than 10. So it’s also a function of the system being stronger.

  1. JJ Wetherholt
  2. Liam Doyle
  3. Rainiel Rodriguez
  4. Quinn Mathews
  5. (or 6) Joshua Baez
  6. (or 5) Jurrangelo Cjintje
  7. Leonardo Bernal
  8. Jimmy Crooks
  9. Brandon Clarke
  10. Tink Hence

Jurrangelo Cjintje
I’m going to make this introduction every time because this may be the first prospect vote you’ve seen. When the Cardinals traded Brendan Donovan, we had already ranked the first 7 prospects. Cjintje was by most measures going to be somewhere in that top 7. So instead of starting over, Cjintje is facing off against the prospects, one-by-one, head-to-head, until he loses. He defeated Crooks in a head-to-head and then Bernal on Monday. Today you have to decide if Cjintje or Joshua Baez is the better prospect. If Cjintje wins, he then faces Quinn Mathews. If he loses, he will be the #6 prospect in the system. Scouting report below:

“Cjintje is technically a switch pitcher, but it is very clear from the scouting and the numbers that he is a far better pitcher right-handed. From the right side, Cjintje throws mid-90s and has topped at 99 mph. He has both a cutter and a sweeper, though the sweeper is the better pitch. He also throws an upper-80s change. From his left side, he is effectively a two-pitch pitcher, throwing low 90s with a solid sweeper. Statistically, it wasn’t close. He walked more than he struck out and allowed 7 homers in 21 innings from the left side, but from the right side he had a 5.0 K/BB ratio and only allowed 3 homers in 34.1 IP.“

VOTE HERE

Comparable Player Poll

Sometimes, I find a player comparison that just seems natural. I find two players who feel like they should be compared to each other. They are roughly similar prospects, they play the same position, and they’re even the same handedness. The only difference is strikeouts and proximity to the big leagues.

Braden Davis was a 5th round draft choice in 2024. With an elite change that produces crazy swing-and-miss, Davis struck out 33% of batters at both Low A and High A. The rest of his arsenal is not quite as good and he has some serious issues with walking batters (16.6% for the season), but he will be 23-years-old and is probably 5-10 great starts away from being in AA next season. Or at least 5-10 starts of a normal walk rate away.

Pete Hansen was a 3rd round draft pick back in 2022 and he’s pretty much excelled one level at a time since then. He doesn’t necessarily have an elite pitch, but he does have great command of his pitches, walking just 6% of batters last year. With a strong 46% GB rate and 21.1 K%, he had pretty good numbers in a hitting environment. No question where the 25-year-old will be in 2025: AAA.

VOTE HERE

New Add

The Tanner Franklin experience is making me trust my gut a bit more. I had a feeling he wasn’t going to be like most guys I add and slowly build up votes. I actually have two guys who give me that feeling right now. So I’m going to trust my gut again and put both on the ballot. Unfortunately, neither of those guys is Tai Peete. This is becoming something of a running bit at this point. I am also, for now, removing Ryan Mitchell from the voting. Sorry. There’s too many names. Mitchell has gotten three votes total in his two polls. He will get added back in, but right now I’d rather see if a different name will do better first.

And as a consolation, if either Mitchell, Peete, or anyone else I add win the very first vote I put them on, the next vote I’ll have them face off against the guy ahead of them just to be safe. Similar to what I’m doing with Cjintje. Because if they win the first vote, I added them too late. Franklin is a good example of it working out well. He absolutely needed to be in the previous vote, but because he didn’t win, I know I didn’t add him too late.

I’m adding Nathan Church because of Moises Gomez and Matt Koperniak, essentially. I do not think they are similar prospects. Koperniak was old and Gomez had swing-and-miss issues. But broadly speaking, this describes all three: non-prospect who has a breakout great season and is seemingly MLB-ready on Day One. Based on past voting, it kind of feels like I need to give you a chance to vote for Church now. It’s a better system, so who knows where he’ll land, but he would be between 10-15 in years past guaranteed.

I also want to add Yhoiker Fajardo, mainly because it wouldn’t totally shock me if he pulled a Franklin essentially. Just leapfrogs a bunch of guys in the voting. It also wouldn’t shock me if he barely got any votes. You guys did not like him when I compared him to Tanner Franklin. But just the fact that I think the former is possible is enough to put him on the vote.

Jesus Baez, IF – 21

Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+

Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding

Baez is somewhat fascinating, especially in light of Keith Law’s negative assessment of his character, because on the one hand, character very much impacts a prospect’s ability to reach their full potential. It seems like whatever scouts (or Law specifically) looks for in a player that will reach their max potential, he does not have. It’s also very nebulous though. Oh yeah and he was 20-years-old last year. And so far, it hasn’t affected performance at all. Good luck trying to place this profile on a list.

Nathan Church, OF – 25

Stats (AA): 129 PAs, .336/.380/.563, 6.2 BB%, 7.8 K%, .227 ISO, .327 BABIP, 157 wRC+, 136 DRC+

AAA: 242 PAs, .335/.400/.521, 9.9 BB%, 10.3 K%, .186 ISO, .338 BABIP 144 wRC+, 132 DRC+

MLB: 65 PAs, .179/.254/.250, 4.6 BB%, 27.7 K%, .071 ISO, .237 BABIP, 46 wRC+, 78 DRC+

Scouting: 55/55 Hit, 35/35 Game Power, 40/40 Raw Power, 55/55 Speed, 45/45 Field

Church deviates from my examples above in many ways, but the most interesting of which is the fact that he actually got to debut in the major leagues. A fact that actually might hurt him in comparison. Had Gomez or Koperniak debuted and hit the way Church hit, I don’t think Gomez is anywhere near 10th in voting and I kind of think Koperniak misses the list entirely. So that’s a wrinkle that may change the comparison in voting.

Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19

Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA/2.41 FIP/3.29 xFIP

Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/2.50 FIP/3.14 xFIP

Scouting: 40/45 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 30/50 Change, 35/50 Command

I had, by the way, always intended to add Fajardo when Franklin was close to being selected. So when he was high in the voting, I was like okay I need to get him on the list soon. In a way I’m replacing Mitchell with a very different kind of 19-year-old prospect. I always wonder when a player this young has a season like this if Low A was on the Red Sox’ radar at the beginning of the season or did he just essentially force them to promote him because he dominated. Did they intend for him to throw 72 innings? It’s in line with the progression you want to see, but if he pitched poorly in the complex, he isn’t getting promoted to Low A, and no way is he throwing 70 innings if he’s never promoted. Anyway, he can throw about 100 this year, so that’s nice for the Cardinals.

Tanner Franklin, 22 – RHP

Stats: 3 GS, 6 IP, 32.1 K%, 17.9 BB%, 66.7 GB%, .333 BABIP, 1.50 ERA/3.95 FIP/4.28 xFIP

Scouting: 60/70 Fastball, 40/55 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 30/40 Command

My conception of when I was going to add Franklin was way off, and yet it appears that my conception of when I suspect he’d be selected seems about right. So why exactly did he keep losing head to head polls? He is probably going to be a higher ranked prospect than two players that he beat directly in a head to head voting matchup. That’s kind of bizarre right? There’s something about his profile that makes a significant portion of people doubt him, but of the people who believe in him, they’re all-in.

Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA

Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command

Henderson looks like a less exciting prospect after the big infusion of pitching talent the Cardinals have undergone the last few seasons. This is for two reasons: the other guys, for the most part, have more upside. But also, the Cardinals are significantly less reliant specifically on Henderson working out than they were just a year ago. That means he’ll get less attention. Which is fine because I hope the Cardinals continue finding under the radar pitchers in the new regime to complement the higher upside arms.

Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP

Didn’t pitch

Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command

Now that Hence is selected and Roby is close behind, Hjerpe will really be the last high upside, big injury risk pitcher left. It makes sense that he’s barely got votes thus far, because I would find it crazy to vote for Hjerpe over the pitchers already selected. But if a high upside, big injury risk pitcher is your thing, he will probably get those votes now. Or next vote I guess. The lukewarm reception to Hjerpe will have no real excuses if he continues to not get votes once Roby is on the list.

Brycen Mautz, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%. 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/3.58 FIP/3.20 xFIP/4.54 DRA

Scouting: 45/45 Fastball, 55/55 Slider, 45/50 Curve, 30/35 Change, 50/55 Command

Fangraphs released the Cardinals list recently and with that came some updated scouting. If you were wondering, the pitches did not collectively change a lot. The fastball and slider were the exact same, his actual and potential both improved by 5, but his change went down 5 in both actual and potential. His command current took a bump but his potential remained at 55. Basically, they think he’s a slightly better pitcher than when he was graded on last year’s list, but his potential hasn’t moved.

Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B

Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+

High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+

Somewhat unbelievably, Fangraphs gave an updated list and yet I still have no scouting numbers for Deniel Ortiz. Whether or not you think Ortiz should be a top 20 prospect, is is objectively insane that he is not among the top 53 by Fangraphs. I have been very open that I’m more of a scouting the stat line guy than probably wise, but I feel like certainly stats alone should get you on the top 53. It’s not like he did this in the Dominican Summer League. Or when he was old for his level. Age-appropriate (young if anything), elite performance across two levels – I mean he should be above most relievers at minimum, no?

Yairo Padilla, 19 – SS

Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283/.396/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+

Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 40/60 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 30/40 Field

I don’t think I like the fielding potential here. I am aware that he might not stick at SS and that he might not ultimately be a good defender, but a 40 grade seems absurdly low for 19-year-old still learning the position. Like they’re calling that his potential. If that’s his potential, he’d be moved off SS already I think. On the flip side to be fair, that is a very, very encouraging power projection that hasn’t really shown up in the stats at all. So you take the good with the bad.

Tekoah Roby, 24 – RHP

Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/2.73 xFIP/4.56 DRA

AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.01 FIP/4.04 xFIP/4.50 DRA

45/50 Fastball, 55/55 Slider, 70/70 Curve, 40/60 Change, 40/40 Command

It’s really quite too bad Roby got injured and needed Tommy John. I am genuinely curious where he would have ranked if he ended the season healthy. He had fully returned as a prospect with fairly dominant numbers at AA. He was then solid, but nothing special in his 6 starts in AAA. I think merely being healthy would see him get a big boost with the exact same stats, but there’s also a world where he adjusts to AAA fairly quickly and improves his numbers.

VOTE HERE

Chicago Cubs news and notes — Brown, Hoyer, Wiggins

Jed Hoyer held a press conference yesterday. I didn’t see all of it, as I don’t live in Chicagoland but those who do and did view it assured me that Jed didn’t say anything that amounted to anything.

Some of the players were out and about — I’ll include clips from that activity through the weekend

I bent and bruised my hamate bone the other day. It’s no bueno, I can tell you. So I sympathize with the players who have broken theirs recently. On the outside of the hand, that bone is liable to be whapped against household effects on the regular. I feel like I should sleep with a potholder on. One of my cats slept on my hand and I woke up wanting to cry.

I know, TMI.

Spring Training games are right around the corner. It’s in the upper 70s here, a hundred miles or so south. Everything seems possible.

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

Food For Thought:

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series. We will not wittingly publish A. I. – driven articles or clickbait, and insist on unimpeachable sources.