ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - AUGUST 14: Gunnar Henderson #2 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on August 14, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Orioles are currently in possession of a wild card spot. This is not something that I thought I would be writing in mid-August. The idea of the Orioles getting into this position has seemed improbable throughout the season due to all of their flaws. This only seemed less probable at the beginning of this month when Mike Elias traded away a few players, subtracting from the team’s already-longshot chances.
The Rays-Yankees-Rays gauntlet was supposed to be what would sink them, and maybe it still will, but three games into it, the Orioles have won three games and the competition has bumbled around so the O’s have themselves a wild card position. It’s hard to believe and it’s still true. Naturally, in this week’s podcast, I try to make sense of the O’s rising from the ashes like the phoenix, even though a sub-.500 team having a postseason place this deep into the season doesn’t make much sense at all.
As long as every other team is continuing to stay in the mediocre muck, maybe the record the Orioles need to get into the postseason is less daunting as it once seemed. Could 83 or even 82 wins end up doing it at this point? In this episode, I’m thinking about the math involved, what needs to keep going right for the Orioles, what could maybe start going better in another week or two, and I’m continuing to think about Gunnar Henderson, who is a crucial part of this effort.
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CLEVELAND, OHIO - AUGUST 16: Starting pitcher Casey Mize #32 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on August 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Diego Padres and the Cleveland Guardians got off to a slow start in the final game of the three-game series at Progressive Field, but it had nothing to do with their play. The teams were unable to take the field due to weather in the Cleveland area and the start of the game was delayed by more than three hours.
Once the teams were able to begin play, Casey Mize dominated the Guardians’ lineup and the Padres offense gave him enough support to earn a 5-0 win in the final game of the series which also gave San Diego a series win. Mize completed six scoreless innings and allowed just three hits with one walk and three strikeouts before turning the game over to the bullpen.
Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon and Yuki Matsui followed Mize’s lead and dominated the Cleveland lineup. All three relievers completed scoreless innings, in fact none of the three even allowed a hit. Estrada worked the seventh and allowed a walk with one strikeout. Morejon worked the eighth without allowing a batter reach base and Matsui finished off the ninth with a five-run lead, allowing one walk and striking out two.
The Padres got to Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee early. Luis Rengifo hit a two-out solo home run in the top of the second and was followed by Gavin Sheets who also hit a two-out solo home run to give San Diego a 2-0 lead after its half of the second. Jackson Merrill led off the top of the fourth inning with a walk and later came in to score on a two-out single by Xander Bogaerts to put the Padres in front, 3-0.
San Diego tacked on a run in the top of the eighth inning when Jase Bowen connected on a solo home run to right field, which was his second of the season. The Padres were not done there, they added another run to their total in the top of the ninth inning when Jake Cronenworth connected on a solo home-run to right field that made the score, 5-0.
There were contributions in the game throughout the lineup, but Mize and the San Diego pitching staff set the tone. The Padres will look to add another win to their total when they visit the New York Mets for a three-game series starting today at 4:10 p.m.
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-233) hope a trip to Coors Field cures their recent struggles as they begin a three-game series with the Colorado Rockies on Monday night.
Blake Snell makes a rare appearance, whereas the Rockies trot out Tomoyuki Sugano, who is due for significant regression.
See why my Dodgers vs. Rockiespredictions and MLB picksfor Aug. 17 are backing the visitors in a rout.
Who will win Dodgers vs Rockies today: Dodgers -2.5 (-107)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the second-best OPS (.762), wOBA (.333), and wRC+ (110) this year, yet have been slumping this month (84 wRC+).
Tomoyuki Sugano has navigated an unseemly 6.93 xERA en route to 12 wins and a 4.43 ERA.
The bill is coming due on both. Sugano can't walk this tightrope much longer, and L.A.'s lineup has the perfect matchup, in the perfect ballpark, to experience positive regression.
Blake Snell (120 Stuff+) should overpower a Colorado Rockies lineup with the second-worst wRC+ (82) against southpaws.
Dodgers vs Rockies Over/Under pick: Over 10.5 (-112)
Sugano has surrendered a .341 AVG and 1.196 OPS in prior meetings with L.A.'s projected lineup, so I expect a crooked number from the Boys in Blue.
Snell looked dominant in his last start (6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 10 Ks), although part of his effectiveness has come via an unreal 154 Stuff+ on his curveball. Benders don't operate optimally in Coors, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a bit of regression from Snell in a strong, but not peak, start.
Neither bullpen has been trustworthy, so I'm counting on runs.
Dodgers vs Rockies home run prediction: Freddie Freeman (+344)
Out of the 24 home runs Sugano has allowed, 17 have been to left-handed hitters. His xERA jumps to 7.68 and his FIP to 6.49 when at a platoon disadvantage.
That's music to Freddie Freeman's ears, as he's crushed righties with .316/.392/.500 splits while hitting 11 of his 15 home runs.
Sugano's 22nd percentile groundball rate means Freeman has better odds than normal to let loud with a long fly ball.
JD Yonke's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 29-34, -9.7 units
Over/Under bets: 38-26, +10.1 units
Dodgers vs Rockies weather
It's Coors Field, so expect the typical bump in offensive expectations given the conditions.
Dodgers vs Rockies odds
Moneyline: Dodgers -233 | Rockies +223
Run line: Dodgers -2.5 (-104) | Rockies +2.5 (EVEN)
Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-108) | Under 10.5 (+104)
Dodgers vs Rockies trend
The Rockies have gone Over the total in 12 of their last 19 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rockies.
How to watch Dodgers vs Rockies and game info
Location
Coors Field, Denver, CO
Date
Monday, August 17, 2026
First pitch
8:40 p.m. ET
TV
SNLA, Rockies.TV
Dodgers starting pitcher
Blake Snell (0-1, 5.00 ERA)
Rockies starting pitcher
Tomoyuki Sugano (12-5, 4.43 ERA)
Dodgers vs Rockies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
ATLANTA, GA - JUNE 06: Tyler Callihan #37 of the Pittsburgh Pirates shakes water off his face in the heat during the MLB game between the Pittsburg Pirates and the Atlanta Braves on June 6, 2026 at TRUIST Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Each time there is a rainout for a Braves game, whether we were at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, Turner Field, or Truist Park, there was always someone complaining that they should have a dome. My response have always been the same. Domed stadiums add a prohibitive cost to an already expensive item. That cost is almost always shared with the surrounding community, whether they enjoy our sports team or not. To have a dome, you’re taking hundreds of millions of dollars from people that are trying to make ends meet just so 3-6 times a year we can watch a ballgame without rescheduling. And I feel okay with that stance.
However, that was considering rainouts and their cancellations. Right now, I want to talk about the heat. It was 96 degrees in Atlanta yesterday, with a heat index in the 105-110 range. A game was played yesterday that started at 1:30 pm local time. I caught the end of the game yesterday. There weren’t a lot of people in the stands for the finish. In this game, Matt Olson hit a three-run home run in the eighth to counter the game-tying homer by the Diamondbacks. The Braves survived the August Raisel Iglesias Experience for the win. And the response was… eh. But I get it.
I spent about three hours outside yesterday in my corner of Braves Country. It’s hot, fam. I get it that a nickname for the city is Hot ‘Lanta. But come on, it’s hot for 65-70 home dates a year. This isn’t some rare occurrence like a rainout, although we have seen more than a few rain delays and cancellations.
The level of heat does make the dome argument a little easier. It’s a near-year-round occurrence. Then you look at Tampa, Miami, Houston, Dallas, and Phoenix. These are all cities with roundabout the same weather concerns, that play baseball in domes. Well, Florida is its own weather (and everything else) animal, but it’s similar.
You can justify the heat argument, but I don’t know about the money angle. Truist Park, sans the lid, cost somewhere in the 622-672 million dollar range. Domes can add 40% of the cost of construction. We would end up going to the public with a tab of 260 million dollars minus whatever the Braves kick in.
For my experience, only about 20 percent of the park is guaranteed to be shaded for the entire game. For the rest, you can hang in the concourse or pay up for the seats with air conditioning. Some parks help ventilation that allows the park to breathe, but not Truist. Something about that park helps it hold in the heat. It probably has something to do with it being surrounded by acres of concrete and steel, which they can’t really control.
So do the Braves need a dome? I mean, no but still. Maybe we could have giant Big Fogg fans in the aisles? It’s hot, y’all.
The Chicago Cubs and Wrigley View Rooftop—which the Cubs accuse of “parasitic” business practices—await a federal judge’s ruling on whether to permanently block Wrigley View Rooftop from selling tickets to view games, concerts and other events at Wrigley Field.
The two sides’ legal arguments have been refined as the Cubs and Wrigley View Rooftop vie to persuade U.S. District Judge Sharon Johnson Coleman to grant summary judgment. Each contends that after Coleman weighs the evidence and testimony shared during pretrial discovery, she’ll rule that there’s nothing for a jury to decide because the law clearly favors their side. The Cubs’ summary judgment motion includes a demand for a permanent injunction that would effectively end Wrigley View Rooftop’s business.
The Cubs sued Wrigley View Rooftop in 2024 for misappropriation, unjust enrichment, false advertising, infringement and related claims. Earlier this year, Coleman held that the Cubs’ claims are plausible. She stressed the Cubs have an established property right in the product of live Cubs games produced at Wrigley Field.
In doing so, Coleman emphasized a ruling from 1938 in favor of the Pittsburgh Pirates against a radio station that placed observers on the rooftop of a building adjacent to Forbes Field to watch the game for a broadcast without paying the Pirates.
Coleman is now weighing rival summary judgment arguments. Through a recent filing authored by Martin L. Roth and other attorneys from Kirkland & Ellis, the Cubs maintain the case is straightforward: Wrigley View Rooftop sells tickets to look into Wrigley Field and does so without the Cubs’ blessing, and that practice is illegal.
The team emphasizes that Wrigley View Rooftop’s business model—which centers on ticket sales and the sale of food, beverages and merchandise to ticket holders—is predicated on the Cubs spending money to show events in Wrigley Field. This is why the Cubs derisively describe Wrigley View Rooftop as a parasite, an organism whose survival depends on the host and that takes from the host without giving back.
The Cubs also maintain the federal Copyright Act, which can preempt state law claims, is not applicable since live ballgames “do not fall within the subject matter of copyright.” The team notes that games are not works of authorship like movies or books. Along those lines, the central issue in the case is not copyrighted broadcasts of Cubs games, but the games themselves.
Another defense argument the Cubs try to strike out is that they could solve the problem by simply blocking the view. The Cubs say that assertion is a red herring, since “the law does not reward misappropriation simply because the victim could try to stop it.” The team also argues that “requiring self-help” as a rule of law could spark “intolerable outcomes.” The Cubs pose a hypothetical: “How would a retail purse designer use self-help to police against bad actors selling ‘knock off’ bags on the streets of New York?”
As to the Cubs’ trademarks, the team maintains Wrigley View Rooftop has used them without permission and has sparked consumer confusion as to whether the Cubs are selling the rooftop tickets.
To further that point, the Cubs say testimony reveals some customers express confusion after learning that the seats they bought weren’t for Wrigley Field or sold by the Cubs.
“One customer,” the Cubs say, “even included a Wrigley Field seating chart to help orient [Wrigley View Rooftop’s] staff to where she wished to be seated.”
To bolster the false advertising claims, the Cubs insist Wrigley View Rooftop has “lied to consumers” by claiming an official partnership with the Cubs, with whom the company had a contractual relationship that ended in 2023. Another alleged misrepresentation by Wrigley View Rooftop is that it is the “last independently owned rooftop” when there are other entities that own rooftops.
Wrigley View Rooftop offers a very different account of the facts and law.
The company insists the Cubs demand a property right that the law doesn’t provide “the right to prohibit people on neighboring private property from witnessing live events that [the Cubs] knowingly and intentionally exhibit in a manner that is visible from such neighboring private property.”
Through a recent filing authored by Matthew De Preter and Gary P. Hollander of Aronberg Goldgehn Davis & Garmisa, Wrigley View Rooftop says there is no statute, ordinance, contract or court ruling that supports the existence of a right that converts a “public-facing, open-air, live event into privately controlled property that extends beyond Wrigley Field.”
Wrigley View Rooftop also rejects the “parasite” label.
The company emphasizes its operations are authorized by the City of Chicago’s municipal code and that it offers a service to the public—the chance to buy a ticket to experience “the unique rooftop experience of seeing live events from a Wrigleyville rooftop.” Relatedly, Wrigley View Rooftop contends there is no legal support for the proposition that the Cubs gain a property right merely because the two businesses might be competing for people willing to pay to watch Cubs games.
If Coleman sided with the Cubs, Wrigley View Rooftop argues, “the Cubs would unilaterally dictate which rooftops get to operate when and under what conditions, and nothing would stop [the Cubs] from demanding rooftops pay 50%, 100%, 1,000% of revenues, or any other exorbitant figure the Cubs demand, simply to operate in exact compliance with the City’s Ordinance.”
Further, Wrigley View Rooftop maintains, cases involving radio broadcasts and other transmissions of information are not analogous. The company says it doesn’t sell admission to Wrigley Field, doesn’t sell Cubs tickets, doesn’t credential journalists to report on Cubs games and doesn’t record or rebroadcast Cubs games. Wrigley View Rooftop maintains its business model is selling access to a Chicago-licensed rooftop venue on its property.
“Watching is not copying,” Wrigley View Rooftop argues. “Seeing is not rebroadcasting. Witnessing is not appropriating. Operating a lawful venue across the street from an open-air stadium is not misappropriation.”
If Coleman denies summary judgment, the case will proceed to trial. Although the Cubs’ situation is factually unique given Wrigley Field’s status as an open-air venue surrounded by rooftop buildings, the case could set important precedent for sports teams in their efforts to prevent viewing of their games through unauthorized means, such as drones and emerging technologies.
The case could also end by settlement at any point, with a plausible settlement involving Wrigley View Rooftop continuing operations but sharing some percentage of revenue with the Cubs. That is the arrangement the two businesses had between 2004 and 2023.
Aug 15, 2018; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora (20) sits in the dugout before the start of a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
The latest reports coming out all but acknowledge that Alex Cora is going to be the next manager of the Phillies once the season ends.
Alex Cora, who turned down the job when Thomson was fired, is expected to be the Phillies’ next manager barring a World Series berth or title.
Bob Nightengale has been known to get things wrong from time to time, but considering that Cora was asked to be the manager when Rob Thomson was fired, this feels like it’s about right. Knowing that, with all the smoke that is surrounding the situation, what Alex Cora probably being the next manager mean to you? Does it move any kind of needle for you? Could he possibly get more out of the roster than what Don Mattingly has done now or Rob Thomson did in the future?
SACRAMENTO, CA - AUGUST 16: Ezequiel Duran #20 of the Texas Rangers looks on in the dugout prior to the game between the Texas Rangers and the Athletics at Sutter Health Park on Sunday, August 16, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Don Collier/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning.
Shawn McFarland ponders what to make of the Texas Rangers after an abysmal road trip against baseball’s worst teams.
MLB dot com’s Theo DeRosa writes about the Rangers falling in the finale against the Athletics to become the first visiting team to lose a series in Sacramento since April.
McFarland checks out why Jacob Latz has barely appeared in August and it’s mostly because the Rangers have been pretty bad in August.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - AUGUST 16: Pete Alonso #25 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates a two RBI double in the top of the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on August 16, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Parker Freedman/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Despite selling at the deadline, battling key injuries for months, and treading water all season long, the Orioles find themselves in sole possession of a playoff spot with less than a quarter of the schedule left to play. It has been an unlikely about face that has seen the O’s beat up on the AL’s best team and take advantage of a dip in form for just about every other team in the mix for the final wild card spot.
The Orioles have been one of the sport’s bigger disappointments to this point. They came into the season with aspirations of a deep playoff run after making several aggressive moves over the winter. But maintaining momentum has proven difficult. Their offense hasn’t been the juggernaut they hoped it would be, and several key injuries have cut into the depth they had built up. All of that has kept the O’s on the outside of the playoff picture for much of the summer, but that all changed over the weekend.
This recent improvement has perked up the ears of a fan base that had (understandably) written the team off a long time ago. Now, instead of begrudgingly turning our sporting attention towards football and the fall, we can lock back into baseball for a few weeks longer, at least. Can this team give us intriguing baseball heading into September? What about October? They have as good of a case to make as any of the AL’s many other mid-tier teams.
Their best hitters are producing
It’s not that the lineup has been “bad” this season, but they haven’t been nearly as good as they were supposed to be. The plan was for this to be a borderline Top 5 unit. Instead, they have fallen somewhere between 10th and 15th in MLB in most categories. Much of the blame for that underperformance goes to the team’s best hitters failing to reach their career averages. But there has been some improvement in that department recently.
Pete Alonso is leading the way with his 218 wRC+, four home runs and a .660 slugging percentage this month. Tyler O’Neill, signed prior to the 2025 season to be a mid-lineup threat, is having his best stretch as an Oriole, collecting a 163 wRC+ in August. Colton Cowser is still striking out a bunch, but he is balancing it with power (.633 slugging, three home runs in August). And, of course, there’s Gunnar Henderson.
Henderson was supposed to be an MVP candidate, in the conversation as the league’s top shortstop. It just hasn’t happened for him this season. That won’t matter as much if he can keep swinging the bat like the has the last two weeks. Since August 1, Henderson owns a 141 wRC+ and it deserves to be even higher. His .227 batting average and .409 slugging percentage are well below his .333 expected batting average and .610 expected slugging. The process for Henderson is solid right now. The results will follow.
Reinforcements are on the way
While it’s great that some of the highest paid and familiar players are carrying the offensive load right now, in order for the Orioles to maintain their hold on a playoff spot they are are going to need some help. Giving regular at-bats to Christian Franklin, Yohel Pozo, and Jeremiah Jackson probably won’t get it done.
Fortunately, the injury news in Birdland has been positive this week.
Samuel Basallo, nursing right shoulder inflammation since July 20, began a rehab assignment with Norfolk on Sunday. He went 1-for-4 with a double. It’s likely that he will need a few more days to knock the rust off before he returns to the Orioles everyday lineup. Getting his bat back into the catching mix will be a big boost over his current replacements. Pozo has good top line numbers (.286/.313/.500), but is playing well above his peripherals (.231 xBA, .308 xSLG). Carlos Narváez has provided good defense but nothing at the plate (.103/.161/.103) since joining.
Blaze Alexander, who has been out since July 13 with a hand fracture, took batting practice and fielding work over the weekend. He is expected to begin a rehab assignment sometime this week. Prior to his injury, Alexander was the Orioles hottest hitter. He had a .807 OPS on the season, which was weight down by a particularly poor April. From May 1 through his injury, Alexander was hitting .365/.414/.528 and had begun to take over the everyday job at third base, though he had spent time all over the field. His eventual return will allow Craig Albernaz to mix and match his lineup while greatly improving the team’s depth.
This is the most capable Orioles rotation in a long time
Mike Elias vowed that he would add a “frontline” starter this past offseason. The starter he identified to fill that void was Shane Baz, who the Orioles traded for from the Rays and then inked to a five-year extension through the 2030 season. Elias took some heat for it at the time since Baz wasn’t exactly a proven big league arm, though his talent was undeniable. Well, nearly five months into the 2026 season it is looking like a decent bit of business.
Baz has stayed healthy, made each of his starts, and leads the team with 139.1 innings pitched. FanGraphs credits him with 3.0 fWAR, which is also tops on the team and ranks 16th in MLB among starting pitchers. Baseball Reference is not as kind (1.5 bWAR). But no matter how you slice it, has been a positive influence on the team with his 103 ERA+ and 3.34 FIP.
Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, and Brandon Young fill out the rest of the core quartet of the O’s rotation, and each of them have been above average arms for the team this year. Bradish, in his first full season after Tommy John surgery, has seen his strikeouts dip and walks rise but manages to compete each time out. Rogers’s season totals (4.15 ERA) obscure how good he has been since the start of June (13 starts, 77 innings, 2.45 ERA, 2.85 FIP). And Young may be the most dependable of the bunch. He has allowed more than three runs in a start just twice since May 1, and the Orioles are 14-3 in games he has pitched since then as well.
In times of turmoil for the offense, the rotation is what has kept the Orioles afloat. Since June 1, they have been worth 6.4 fWAR, the fourth-highest mark in the sport. Much of that comes from the 353.1 innings they have pitched, which is also fourth in MLB during that stretch. But there is quality (3.71 FIP, fourth in MLB) and depth that is hard to find elsewhere in the league.
The rest of the AL is simply bad
You can see the elements of a good team within these Orioles. But we also have 120+ games of data to suggest that these guys are, collectively, a middling club. That’s not an insult. It’s reality. And in this year’s American League it might be enough to make the playoffs anyway.
The Orioles are one of seven teams in the AL that is currently under .500 and within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot. All of them are flawed, and one of them is going to make the playoffs. Why not the Orioles?
The 563 runs the Orioles have scored is more than any other team in the AL East, and only two of the other teams (Twins, Tigers) in the mix for the final wild card spot have scored more. As discussed earlier, there is reason to think the lineup could be even more productive down the stretch.
The Orioles are the only one of the seven clubs in the middle of the AL that has a winning record (30-28) in games against teams above .500. Maybe that comes in handy this week with games against the Rays and Yankees on the docket.
Since July 1, the Orioles are 22-15, which is the fourth-best mark in the AL. The Tigers are the only team in the mix that has played better (23-15) from that date.
Long story short, while it has been an insanely frustrating season to follow up close, and there are clear holes on this roster that need to be cleaned up heading into 2027, there is also plenty of reason to think that these Orioles can squeeze their way into the playoffs this year.
The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles wrap up a four-game set tonight, with the hosts sitting as a heavy -150 moneyline favorite behind left-hander Shane McClanahan.
But my Orioles vs Rays predictions are backing Baltimore to take the finale, with a reliable starter on the hill and its recent offensive surge proving to be key against McClanahan.
Who will win Orioles vs Rays today: Orioles (+140)
The Baltimore Orioles hand Brandon Young the ball tonight, and he has been reliable. The right-hander owns a respectable 3.76 FIP over his last five appearances while allowing just 0.92 HR/9 and a 35.6% hard-hit rate.
On the other side, Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane McClanahan has a 4.87 xERA over his previous three starts. While he has not allowed many homers, the left-hander has walked 4.85 hitters per nine innings, which is dangerous against a thriving Orioles offense with a 120 wRC+ over the last week.
McClanahan is making his first start since leaving his last outing on July 30 due to mid-back soreness.
Tampa Bay is also swinging it well, but Baltimore’s 103 wRC+ against lefties gives the Orioles an edge.
Play this down to +120.
COVERS INTEL: Young has also performed better on the road, posting a 3.44 FIP compared to a 4.35 mark at home. That gives Baltimore another edge as an underdog.
Orioles vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-112)
This total sits low at 7.5, and I’m targeting the Over with both lineups rolling. Baltimore’s wRC+ is well above average right now, and the Orioles also own a respectable .187 ISO over their last six contests.
Tampa Bay’s offense has been even hotter, posting a 134 wRC+ over the last week while slugging 10 home runs. Neither starter has been completely lights out, so this game could reach 4-5 runs before the bullpens enter.
There is more vulnerability late, too. The Rays’ relief corps owns a 5.18 FIP over its last 23.1 frames, while Baltimore’s bullpen has been better but not untouchable.
I’ll play the Over up to -130.
Orioles vs Rays home run prediction: Pete Alonso (+414)
Pete Alonso is showcasing his power lately. He has smacked two homers over his last six games while posting a .318 ISO during that span.
Alonso also owns a 68.4% hard-hit rate and 15.5% barrel rate over the last week. While McClanahan has limited homers lately, he is not completely untouchable, and the Rays’ bullpen gives Alonso another clear path. Tampa Bay’s relief corps has allowed 1.93 HR/9 over the last week, presenting an opportunity for Alonso to punish a mistake late.
I’ll play this pick down to +400.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 50-62, -19.47 units
Over/Under bets: 62-47, +7.93 units
Orioles vs Rays weather
Weather should be a non-factor for Orioles vs. Rays because Tropicana Field is indoors. Even if outdoor conditions are warm and mostly clear, the controlled environment removes wind, humidity, rain, and ball-carry concerns. There should be no delay risk or meaningful weather impact on scoring.
Orioles vs Rays odds
Moneyline: Orioles +144 | Rays -150
Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+144)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)
Orioles vs Rays trend
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.40 Units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Rays.
How to watch Orioles vs Rays and game info
Location
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Date
Monday, August 17, 2026
First pitch
6:05 p.m. ET
TV
MASN, Rays.TV
Orioles starting pitcher
Brandon Young (9-3, 3.33 ERA)
Rays starting pitcher
Shane McClanahan (9-6, 3.09 ERA)
Orioles vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
CANADA - MAY 28: Strikes his aim: Dave Lemanczyk; who missed much of last season with an injury; opens the American League season tonight for Blue Jays against Seattle Mariners in th U.S. city. He says his only problem now is throwing strikes. (Photo by Doug Griffin/Toronto Star via Getty Images) | Toronto Star via Getty Images
Today marks Dave Lemanczyk’s 76th birthday.
Dave was a starting pitcher for the Blue Jays during their inaugural season. He started the second game in franchise history, recording the team’s first-ever loss.
He was a solid pitcher, selected from the Detroit Tigers in the Expansion Draft. The draft itself was something of a sucker’s bet; expansion teams got to choose from players the established clubs didn’t want. While we did get Jim Clancy, Ernie Whitt, Rico Carty, and Pete Vuckovich (who would later win a Cy Young, though not as a Jay), most of our selections were cast-offs.
Lemanczyk enjoyed a strong year, setting career highs in wins, starts, and innings pitched. He threw 252 innings, completed 11 games, won 13, lost 16, and posted a 4.25 ERA, leading the team in victories.
Dave was our Opening Day starter in 1978, but he made only 20 starts, finishing with a 4-14 record and a 6.26 ERA. The heavy workload from the previous season had taken its toll on his arm.
He bounced back in 1979, tossing a one-hitter against the Rangers in April. At the All-Star break, he was 8-5 with a 3.15 ERA and earned a spot on the All-Star team. However, after the break, injuries hampered his performance, and he finished the season 8-10 with a 3.71 ERA in 20 starts.
The Jays traded him to the Angels midway through the 1980 season. He was released after the year and retired from Major League Baseball at age 30, finishing with a 37-63 record (often pitching for struggling teams), a 4.62 ERA over 185 games, and 103 starts.
After his playing days, Dave became a scout for the Yankees but left after a couple of years to spend more time with his family. He briefly worked as an agent before opening a baseball academy and providing private lessons.
I don’t remember much about him, except that he was a big guy—listed at 6’4”. He’s one of those players I wonder about: what kind of career might he have had if managers had been more careful with pitchers’ arms? He’s someone I’d love to talk to and hear firsthand what it was like pitching for an expansion team.
Things didn’t get any better as Lemanczyk had a couple of run-ins with rookie manager Roy Hartsfield early on, and into the season.
“He set up so many fines that were just stupid,” he said. “I was the first guy fined. I skipped a parade so I could follow up on a great deal on apartment rentals (near Dunedin). There were around 10 units available and nine players ended up going in on it. We paid something like $400 a month, which was a much better deal than in the hotels they wanted us to stay in.”
Framber Valdez lines up against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has looked lost against lefties all season. On the other side, Dillon Dingler brings big right-handed power into a soft matchup with Carmen Mlodzinski.
Valdez and his ground-ball game headline a national-TV matchup as the Detroit Tigers visit the Pirates tonight. Detroit sits as a slim -116 favorite, with first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park.
The pitching matchup shapes my Tigers vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks, which back Detroit on the moneyline, lean Over the total, and target a Tigers slugger to go deep on Monday, Aug. 17.
Who will win Tigers vs Pirates today: Tigers moneyline (-116)
Framber Valdez draws a favorable matchup against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has struggled badly against left-handed pitching, and the Detroit Tigers moneyline is a manageable price to back. Pittsburgh is a strong offense against right-handers (.725 OPS) but much weaker against southpaws (.695 OPS).
Valdez carries a 4.26 ERA, but he allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts before his latest outing and recently tossed seven scoreless innings against Seattle. Pittsburgh counters with Carmen Mlodzinski, who owns a 3.79 ERA overall but has struggled to work deep, averaging only four innings per outing.
I’ll back the Tigers at close to a pick’em price, with Valdez holding a clear handedness edge and Mlodzinski unable to provide length.
I’d play Detroit to -125.
COVERS INTEL: The Pirates are just 10-26 in games started by left-handers and own a .689 OPS against southpaws, a glaring weakness with Valdez on the mound.
Tigers vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)
I’ll take the Over at plus money since neither starter has been reliable enough lately to lay juice on a low-scoring game.
Mlodzinski carries a 5.06 ERA over his last five appearances, including four runs in 2 1/3 innings against Miami and five in three innings against the Mets, and his short outings open an early path to a Pittsburgh bullpen that owns a 4.24 ERA.
Valdez gives Detroit the pitching edge, but he hasn’t been untouchable either, with a 4.97 ERA over his last five starts. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, enters hitting .262 over its last 10 games.
At 8.5 and +105, I’d rather bet on Mlodzinski’s recent struggles and offense developing on both sides than pay -116 on the Under.
I’d play the Over down to -105.
Tigers vs Pirates home run prediction: Dillon Dingler (+510)
Dillon Dingler has been Detroit’s most prolific home run hitter this season, and his matchup with Mlodzinski is a strong long shot. Dingler has hit 26 home runs, with 22 against right-handed pitching, and he’s batting .274 against RHP.
Mlodzinski’s four-seam fastball is the clear path to damage. Hitters are batting .324 and slugging .550 against the pitch, which carries a -5 Statcast run value and a 58.6% hard-hit rate. Dingler punishes four-seamers, slugging .554 against them with a +7 run value and a .599 expected slugging.
Dingler’s season-long power against righties and his ability to attack Mlodzinski’s weakest offering make this price worth a shot.
At +510, I’d play this to +450 for a quarter unit.
Ethan Diamandas' 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 1-2, -1.27 units
Over/Under bets: 1-2, -0.95 units
Tigers vs Pirates weather
PNC Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark with a spacious outfield, and tonight’s forecast leans the same way on a mild Pittsburgh evening. Those conditions suit Valdez’s ground-ball game and reinforce the case for the Tigers moneyline.
Tigers vs Pirates odds
Moneyline: Tigers -108 | Pirates +104
Run line: Tigers -1.5 (+150) | Pirates +1.5 (-156)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Tigers vs Pirates trend
The Over is 4-0 in Pirates' last 4 games as a home underdog, a run of high scoring that backs tonight’s Over 8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Pirates.
How to watch Tigers vs Pirates and game info
Location
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Monday, August 17, 2026
First pitch
7:05 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Tigers starting pitcher
Framber Valdez (7-8, 4.26 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcher
Carmen Mlodzinski (6-5, 3.79 ERA)
Tigers vs Pirates latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
05 August 2026, Spain, Calvia: People are swimming at Bendinat Beach on the island of Mallorca. After a July marked by numerous heat waves, the sea temperature is currently 29 degrees, according to data from AEMET (the Spanish Meteorological Agency). Photo: Clara Margais/dpa (Photo by Clara Margais/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Hickory starter Jesus Lafalaise threw six shutout innings, striking out six and walking three. Louis Marinar struck out two in a shutout inning. Michale Trausch allowed three runs in 1.1 IP, walking one.
Pablo Guerrero was 2 for 6 with a double. Paulino Santana and Marco Argudin each had a hit. Kaden Carpenter was 2 for 6 with a double. Dewar Tovar was 2 for 5 with a double and a walk. Curely Martha had a hit. Kolby Branch doubled.
Hub City starter Enrique Segura allowed two runs in three innings, striking out six and walking three. J’Briell Easley struck out one in a scoreless inning. Owen Proksch allowed a solo homer in an inning of work, striking out one.
Casey Cook was 1 for 3 with a double, a walk and a stolen base. Paxton Kling homered. Marcos Torres doubled.
For Round Rock, Marc Church allowed a run in two innings, striking out six and walking one. Ben Peoples struck out one in a scoreless inning. Emiliano Teodo threw a scoreless inning. Wilian Bormie struck out one and walked one in a shutout inning.
Rehabbing Danny Jansen was 2 for 3 with a walk and caught seven innings. Cam Cauley had a hit and a stolen base. Alejandro Osuna was 2 for 4 with a homer and a walk. John Taylor had a double and a pair of walks. Logan O’Hoppe doubled.
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 13: Garrett Mitchell #5 of the Milwaukee Brewers reacts to his RBI single past Edwin Diaz #3 of the Los Angeles Dodgers, scoring David Hamilton #6 to tie the game 4-4, during the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on August 13, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to week 21 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!
1. Milwaukee Brewers (77-48); 3-4 this week; 100.0% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)
The Brewers held their own on the West Coast, as they followed up a three-game sweep at the hands of the Padres to win three of four against the Dodgers, keeping them five games ahead of the Cubs in the division.
Four players homered for Milwaukee this week, while Jake Bauers and Jackson Chourio tied for the team lead with eight hits apiece, including two doubles each. Joey Ortiz and Gary Sánchez both homered and had a double, with Ortiz leading the team with four RBIs. Andrew Vaughn added seven hits, including a double.
Logan Henderson turned in a pair of solid starts, totaling 13 1/3 innings with four runs allowed and a team-high 13 strikeouts. Jacob Misiorowski and Dustin May each had a quality start, as Miz went six innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts, and May went seven innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts. Grant Anderson, Aaron Ashby, Trevor Megill, and the now DFA’d Lyon Richardson combined for 8 1/3 scoreless innings for the bullpen, striking out five.
Milwaukee gets an off day on Monday before hosting the Mariners and Braves for three games each this week.
2. Chicago Cubs (72-53); 3-3 this week; 98.0% chance to make postseason
The Cubs, who were red hot entering this week, cooled off over the weekend. After winning the first two games in Washington against the Nationals, they dropped the series finale before dropping two of three against the Cardinals over the weekend.
Alex Bregman suddenly looks like the guy Chicago gave $175 million to, as he picked up four more homers as part of a six-hit, five-walk week. Pete Crow-Armstrong added a pair of homers, as did Seiya Suzuki, who also led the team with eight hits, including four doubles.
Clay Holmes had what was easily the best start of the week, earning the win as he went 6 2/3 scoreless frames with one hit and one walk, striking out three. Trent Thornton and Jacob Webb were the only bullpen arms to not allow a run (unless you count catcher Carson Kelly), totaling 4 1/3 innings as Webb also collected a pair of saves. Former Brewer Aaron Civale was also solid in two relief appearances, allowing one run and striking out five across 5 1/3 innings.
Chicago now faces their cross-city rival White Sox at Wrigley Field before an off day on Thursday. They’ll then visit the Mariners in Seattle over the weekend.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (63-61); 4-2 this week; 8.6% chance to make postseason
The Cardinals have had a nice month of August thus far, winning four consecutive series as they went 2-1 against both the Phillies and Cubs this week.
Joshua Báez had arguably the greatest MLB debut ever on Saturday, becoming the first player to ever homer three times in their debut. Alec Burleson had the best week overall for St. Louis, going 9-for-22 with two homers, three doubles, and 12 RBIs. Blaze Jordan, Jordan Walker, and Everson Pereira also homered.
Andre Pallante went six scoreless innings in his start, striking out a pair, while Kyle Leahy (five innings, one run, six strikeouts), Matthew Liberatore (5 1/3 innings, two runs, six strikeouts), Michael McGreevy (six innings, three runs (all unearned), six strikeouts), and Hunter Dobbins (two starts, 10 innings, five runs (three earned), 13 strikeouts) also had solid weeks in what was a great week for the rotation as a whole. Justin Bruihl, Luis Gastelum, Riley O’Brien, and Peter Strzelecki combined for 11 2/3 scoreless innings and 10 strikeouts out of the bullpen.
St. Louis now heads to Cincinnati to play five games in four days (including a makeup doubleheader on Monday) before three games against the Phillies in Philadelphia this weekend.
4. Cincinnati Reds (59-64); 3-3 this week; 0.2% chance to make postseason
The Reds turned in another .500 week, taking two of three from the White Sox in Chicago before dropping two of three to the Marlins at home.
Tyler Stephenson and Eugenio Suárez both slugged a pair of homers, with Ke’Bryan Hayes, Matt McLain, and Sal Stewart adding a homer apiece. Stewart also led the team with eight hits this week, with four RBIs and four runs scored.
Chase Burns continues to dominate, as he went seven scoreless frames, allowing four hits and no walks while striking out seven to pick up the win. Luis Mey went four scoreless innings across three relief appearances, Brock Burke went 2 2/3 scoreless innings, Pierce Johnson went 1 2/3 scoreless, and Emilio Pagán collected a pair of saves in his two appearances.
Cincinnati now hosts the Cardinals for five games in four days before visiting the Diamondbacks next weekend.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (61-65); 3-3 this week; 3.7% chance to make postseason
The Pirates had a solid .500 week, dropping two of three to the Marlins in Miami but bouncing back to take two of three from the Red Sox in Pittsburgh.
Rafael Flores had a big week for Pittsburgh, with seven hits, including three homers, driving in eight. Jacob Gonzalez, Brandon Lowe, and Jared Triolo each homered, and Esmerlyn Valdez led the team with nine hits, including three doubles.
Braxton Ashcraft turned in a complete game, allowing one run on three hits and a walk, striking out 10. Bubba Chandler also earned a win with two runs allowed over five innings, while Paul Skenes took the loss with two runs allowed (one earned) over five innings. Wilber Dotel, Mason Montgomery, Yohan Ramírez, and Gregory Soto combined for 8 1/3 scoreless innings for the bullpen, striking out 11.
Pittsburgh now hosts the Tigers for three games before an off day on Thursday. They then head west to visit the Dodgers in Los Angeles.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 16: Carson Benge #3 of the New York Mets in action against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field on August 16, 2026 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Nationals 4-3. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Meet the Mets
Continuing their alarmingly-successful run in the aftermath of the trade deadline, the Mets sent the Nationals out of town with a three-game sweep.
The cleats Joshua Baez used to club three home runs in his first three trips to the plate as a major leaguer are heading to Cooperstown. The only problem is that the cleats technically aren’t even his.
COVERS INTEL: Sugano pitches to contact and often gets hit hard (
