ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 07: The Los Angeles Dodgers pose for a photo on the field after defeating the Atlanta Braves in game four of the National League Division Series at Truist Park on October 07, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Edward M. Pio Roda/Getty Images) | Getty Images
As we approach the offseason and it increasingly looks like we will get a window for transactions before a likely lockout in early December. Last time we had a CBA negotiation and associated lockout, there was a flurry of transactions before the lockout, as teams and players looked to lock in some certainty before an unknown absence. Labor tensions seem higher and the changes being discussed larger than last time, which could chill the market some, but we will surely still see some movement. I would love to see the team lock in Tyler Mahle to a 2-3 year deal and add a high-quality bat before the lockout, and then perhaps allow themselves more time to evaluate their injured pitching before adding more after the lockout. Of course, Alex Anthopoulos will be opportunistic and the market conditions may not allow for this strategy, but I think it’s a decent plan.
The San Diego Padres wasted no time making their first move of the offseason. Pitcher Tatsuya Nogami signed a minor-league deal out of Osaka Sangyo University, bypassing Nippon Professional Baseball. It’s an emerging trend among Japanese players to bypass NPB by signing out of the collegiate level. Whether it continues is another question entirely. NPB could certainly step in and put a stop to it, but they haven’t just yet.
Regardless, San Diego has an intriguing new prospect. Not much is known about Nogami. By “not much” I mean next to nothing. Nogami has almost zero public stats available. What is known is that he played baseball in high school before attending OSU. He decided not to play for the university team in his first year, instead joining them in his second year.
Crunching the Numbers
There are no stats available for that second year, but there are some for his most recent season. This spring, OSU won the league championship in the Seito Six University Semi-Hardball Baseball League with an undefeated record. Much of that was due to Nogami’s work on the mound. In six games of work (25.1 IP), Nogami allowed just one earned run for a 0.36 ERA.
The 20-year-old’s most intriguing ability is his strikeout rate. In 25 1/3 innings pitched this season, Nogami struck out 54 batters. That is not a typo. The number resulted in a blistering 19.18 K/9 rate. He threw up to 90 mph in high school but hasn’t had any public measurements available while in university. It’s safe to say his velocity has increased a little since then. His pitch mix has obviously kept hitters guessing, with a four-seamer, slider, cutter, curveball and splitter.
Differences in Semi-Hardball
The big question is how Nogami will adjust to MLB. That’s not just because he’s coming over from Japan, it’s because he’s been pitching in a semi-hardball league instead of baseball. Semi-hardball isn’t that much different from baseball. The way that the ball moves for pitchers is incredibly similar. The bigger difference is for hitters, with batters not being able to hit the ball as hard.
Because Nogami is a strikeout pitcher (in every definition of the term), the change shouldn’t affect his stuff all that much. It might be a bigger problem if he was a groundball pitcher, but that shouldn’t change too much for the 20-year-old in his transition to professional baseball in America.
Immediate Expectations
Nogami is certain to begin the coming season in the minor leagues. Not only is he incredibly young, but he also would benefit from gaining some experience facing higher-caliber hitters. A more intriguing question is whether Nogami will be issued a non-roster invite to Spring Training. It could be valuable to see him face big-league hitters. If his stuff plays well against them in a small sample, that could push his timeline forward.
Week two of the AFL season saw the Peoria Javelinas dealing with a rainout that was rescheduled for an off day. Going 2-3 for the week, the Javelinas sit in fourth place with a 5-6 record overall. They are 2.5 games back of the two leading teams, the Scottsdale Scorpions and Surprise Saguaros.
San Diego Padres RHP Kannon Kemp had a start on Oct. 10 and pitched three innings allowing four runs on four hits with three strikeouts. Two of the runs were the result of a home run. RHP Winyer Chourio started on Oct. 14, pitching 2.2 innings allowing a hit and two runs with six walks and two strikeouts. He also had three wild pitches in his 59 pitches thrown with only 25 strikes. After a breakout season in 2025, Chourio has struggled with command during parts of the 2026 season.
Righty reliever Francis Peña pitched in one game for one innings and allowed no hits or runs. He had no walks or strikeouts. Lefty reliever Igor Gil pitched 1.2 innings with a hit, two walks and three strikeouts.
Outfielder Alex McCoy played in two games and hit his second home run for the Javelinas. Infielder Justin DeCriscio also played in two games with two RBI. Catcher Ty Harvey played in two games with two RBI for the week.
Sam Dykstra, who writes for MLB Pipeline on MLB.com, featured McCoy and Harvey in his AFL update this week. For his first two home runs in the AFL, McCoy rose to the top levels of baseball with a 118.2 mph EV on the 435-foot homer he hit on the 15th. The blast came on an 89.3 mph sinker and was not the hardest-hit ball of his 2026 season.
On April 12, while playing for Fort Wayne, McCoy had a groundout clocked at 119.5 mph and a 118 mph home run with Lake Elsinore at another point in the season.
McCoy missed time in 2025 due to injury but that is not reportedly the reason he is playing in the AFL this year. The Padres want him exposed to other pitching than he has seen so far. Hoping that there would be top prospects throwing during AFL games, McCoy’s high strikeout rate and swing-and-miss tendencies need more exposure to improved pitching. A successful adjuster so far in his career, challenging the 6-foot-5 outfielder makes sense as the Padres consistently challenge their top prospects.
Harvey, who did miss big portions of the 2026 season, is making up for lost time. At 20 years old, just one month younger than Padres catcher Ethan Salas, Harvey is also a potential plus power hitter in the system. After returning later in the season, Harvey was the catcher of record for most of the championship run for the Lake Elsinore Storm.
Ethan Salas gets an award
To wrap up the 2026 minor league season for the Padres’ top prospect, Ethan Salas was named the MiLB Defensive Player of the Year. Recognized as a plus defender at this point in his career, Salas almost certainly is done with his minor league career. Assured of an opportunity to win a starting job with the Padres in 2027, Salas will benefit from working with Padres catching coach Kevin Plawecki, who has been credited with helping Luis Campusano up his game.
On the call with play-by-play announcer Joe Davis, the former Cy Young winner watched every pitch from the Dodgers’ rotation. Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow comprised the lethal group, but none of the elite hurlers made it past the fifth inning against a red-hot Brewers lineup.
Los Angeles Dodger pitchers from left, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto watch from the dugout against the Milwaukee Brewers in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the NLCS. Wally Skalij for the CA Post
Smoltz criticized the Dodgers’ pitch selections in the NLCS, where the back-to-back World Series champions were swept by Milwaukee.
“They pitched well, but they didn’t pitch good enough in situations where veteran pitchers should not be making those mistakes,” Smoltz said on the Flippin’ Bats podcast. “In my opinion, there were some pitch selections — I don’t know if it came from Will Smith or it was the pitcher himself — and they put the Milwaukee Brewers in a position to flex their muscles when the Dodgers should have been flexing theirs.
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Blake Snell and Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith talk on the mound during the seventh inning of Game 3 of baseball’s National League Championship Series. AP Photo/Ashley Landis
John Smoltz questions the Dodgers pitch selection in the series:
“There were some pitch selections… I don’t know if it came from Will Smith or from the pitcher himself. But it allowed the Brewers to flex their muscle” pic.twitter.com/sKeYAdIdyv
Tyler Glasnow #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers is removed from the game during the fifth inning in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Milwaukee Brewers. Getty Images
“It was the most shocking scenario that I could have seen from a standpoint, all right, lay out the series, this is how Milwaukee’s gonna win. There’s no way you said they’re gonna win trailing every game, never being down, with the exception of the last game being down by four. They were gonna out-homer, they were gonna hit better with runners in scoring position, that isn’t as shocking they did that in the regular season. And they were gonna dominate from the bullpen in a way that we have never seen.”
CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 16: A general view of a tarp covering the field prior to game four of the American League Championship Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on October 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Let’s try this again, shall we? Here’s a note from samath on what we’re heading towards in next week’s World Series.
Whoever advances out of the AL, we’re already guaranteed some all-time drought-busting. A Brewers-Rays World Series would feature two teams who have never won! That would be the first time that’s happened since the 1980 World Series between the Royals and Phillies, and only the second since 1920, i.e. the last century. A Brewers-Guardians World Series would feature two teams who haven’t won for a combined 78 + 56 = 134 years, second all-time to 2016’s famous Cubs-Indians (108 + 68 = 176 years), just ahead of the 2005’s White Sox-Astros (88 + 43 = 131 years). For this purpose, I’m counting years in their current city, because that counts to fans.
So, who do you want to win the American League this year? The drought-busting Guardians? Or do you want the expansion sibling Rays to get their first title?
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians (1-2), 5:00 pm, TBS
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 13: Shawn Armstrong #43 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches during Game Two of the American League Championship Series between the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Today, the AL could get one step closer to joining its Senior Circuit brother in the World Series. The Brewers finished off a sweep of the Dodgers on Thursday, so they’ll be sitting at home waiting to see who comes out of this one. Game 4 is set for 8 pm in Cleveland.
The Guardians took Game 3, 3-2, thanks to a two-run homer from Petey Halpin, so they lead the series 2-1. Tampa Bay has never trailed an ALCS 2-1 before. A win tonight would put Cleveland one game away from the World Series. A Rays win sends us back to square one as a best-of-three.
Tampa has fiddled with the lineup a little for Game 4, with Chandler Simpson now hitting third and Junior Caminero in the cleanup spot. Tampa’s starter, Nick Martinez, went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA in 180 regular season innings. Martinez’s history against Cleveland should make Guardians fans nervous: two starts in the regular season, 13 innings, zero runs. The Rays need him to hold the line because their bats went quiet in Game 3. Díaz, Aranda, and Caminero went a combined 1-for-12, and Caminero struck out four times. Chandler Simpson has been their spark plug so far.
Tampa Bay lineup
Yandy Díaz – DH
Jonathan Aranda – 1B
Chandler Simpson – LF
Junior Caminero – 3B
Liam Hicks – C
Victor Mesa Jr. – RF
Jonny DeLuca – CF
Richie Palacios – 2B
Taylor Walls – SS
Cleveland is running it back with the exact same lineup from Game 3. That’s fine because José Ramírez and Chase DeLauter have been on fire, OPS’ing 1.038 and 1.438 respectively this postseason. Cleveland’s starting pitcher is none other than old friend Shawn Armstrong, the right-hander who in three seasons in the Baltimore bullpen posted a 5.34 ERA (was it really that high?). Anyway, this is another Cleveland bullpen game. You might expect Joey Cantillo will probably cover a good chunk of it after Armstrong, and Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi are available for bulk outings. Also, Cade Smith has been lights out this postseason, with a 1.00 ERA and 13 strikeouts in nine innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Kike Hernandez gestures toward his dugout after hitting a two-run home run during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Los Angeles. AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
“LA, we fell short of our big goal. But looking at the big picture, what a ride these last three years were!!” Hernandez wrote in the Instagram caption.
“If this is it for us…. Once again, I will always be thankful for you guys & I will forever love ya! #JustAKidFromPR,” Hernandez said.
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman brought Hernandez back on a one-year deal last offseason, saying the “door was always open” for the utilityman. It remains unclear whether that will be the case this winter as Hernandez hits free agency again.
Hernandez has built his career as an electric personality in the Dodgers’ dugout and a clutch bat every October. His postseason numbers are simply mystifying with Hernandez coming to life every fall.
Kike Hernandez #8 of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the dugout during the game against the Colorado Rockies Getty Images
But as the Dodgers look to get younger, the front office may go in another direction this offseason. The Dodgers assembled the most expensive roster in baseball, which also happened to be the oldest.
While the Dodgers won 100 regular-season games with their veteran core, the back-to-back World Series champions were swept by a hungrier, younger Brewers team.
Hernandez, who has been a key part of Los Angeles’ back-to-back World Series titles, could play another major role in the postseason. Getty Images
The four-game sweep in the National League Championship Series may alter the Dodgers’ plans as the front office attempts to build another winning roster.
Only time will tell whether Hernandez is a part of that group.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 15: A view of the Cleveland city skyline and its three tallest downtown buildings the Key Tower and 200 Public Square and the Terminal Tower on September 15, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** | Getty Images
So game four, try number two.
This time there is no rain in the forecast, but it is cold. 7 C at game time and dropping from there. It is much warmer here in Calgary and slightly warmer in Toronto.
Anyway, starting lineup:
Today’s Lineups
RAYS
GUARDIANS
Yandy Diaz – DH
Steven Kwan – LF
Jonathan Aranda – 1B
Jose Ramirez – 3B
Chandler Simpson – LF
Chase DeLauter – RF
Junior Caminero – 3B
Jo Adell – DH
Liam Hicks – C
Nathaniel Lowe – 1B
Victor Mesa – RF
Travis Bazzana – 2B
Jonny DeLuca – CF
Patrick Bailey – C
Richie Palacios – 2B
Petey Halpin – CF
Taylor Walls – SS
Brayan Rocchio – SS
Nick Martinez – RHP
Tanner Bibee – RHP
I’ve spent the day off line, for a pleasant change, which my overlords will not like, but my well being needs occasionally.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 13: Shawn Armstrong #43 of the Cleveland Guardians looks on while pitching in the seventh inning during Game Two of the American League Championship Series between the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Let’s try this again.
Two nights ago the NLCS ended, but we’ve still got plenty of action left on the AL side. In a series that features a pair of top-half teams in terms of Starting Pitcher fWAR and despite an extra day of rest with the rainout, Game Four will feature one team using a starting pitcher who barely struck out one every two innings during the regular season and just a flat-out bullpen game from the other side.
Nick Martinez gets the start for Tampa Bay. Somehow, he accrued a 2.9 fWAR this season while pitching a 2.90 ERA despite a lackluster 11.5% K-BB% and a barely above-league-average 1.10 HR/9, leading to a frightening 4.63 SIERA. Nick has already made one start this postseason, going 3.2 innings and allowing 2 runs in a series-clinching win over the Yankees.
The Guardians have already used Foster Griffin, Parker Messick, and Gavin Williams in this series, so they’re set to ask their bullpen to deliver the penultimate blow against the Rays before potentially cycling all three of those guys through in the back half of the series. Shawn Armstrong will be the first pitcher out of the gate. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tanner Bibee is asked to pitch a few innings; I also wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t actually pitch that long. Steven Vogt has shown a willingness to go to his bullpen very quickly, and with good reason in a postseason that has featured fewer innings from starting pitchers than any I can recall.
CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 15: Brayan Rocchio #4 of the Cleveland Guardians high-fives Angel Genao #17 after defeating the Tampa Bay Rays in Game Three of the American League Championship Series at Progressive Field on Thursday, October 15, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Take two!
Here’s the Rays’ lineup:
10/17 ⚾ Rays Lineup is Out! Provided by mlbstartingnine (@DailyMLBLineups for link)
Rojas, who was recently assigned to the Gigantes del Cibao of the Dominican Professional Baseball League (a.k.a. the "Dominican Winter League"), crushed a 401-foot homer in just his second game with the team.
Jefferson Rojas smacks his first LIDOM home run 💥 106 MPH off the bat https://t.co/tplDV9hlTh
A few innings later, Rojas crushed another no-doubter.
#Mets infielder Jefferson Rojas liked his first homer so much ... he decided to hit another! MLB's No. 68 prospect slugs his 2nd roundtripper 423 feet for the @Gigantes_Cibao: https://t.co/H4lSK3LD5p
Rojas batted eighth in the Gigantes lineup on Saturday, playing third base.
His first game with the ballclub came a day earlier, when Rojas manned the hot corner and batted seventh in the order. He finished his debut with one hit, a walk, and a stolen base.
Rojas will spend part of his offseason playing for the Gigantes alongside MLB hitters, including Mets teammate Christopher Morel, St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Victor Scott II, and Miami Marlins catcher Agustin Ramirez, among others.
Acquired from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor at this past season's trade deadline, Rojas exploded upon his arrival to the Mets' farm system.
His .929 OPS and nine homers in just 29 games with Double-A Binghamton earned him a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse, where he continued to impress, posting a 1.037 OPS with three home runs across 6 games to close out the season.
Rojas is also a consensus top-100 prospect, currently ranking No. 68 in the sport by MLB Pipeline.
The Dodgers face several questions after an early postseason exit in the National League Championship Series.
The dynasty that the Dodgers have put together is in jeopardy of ending within the next few seasons if the front office can’t assemble another winning roster. Kyle Tucker, who was signed to a four-year, $240 million deal ahead of the 2026 season, addressed fans as the future of the franchise is in limbo.
Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker (23) reacts after a double during the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game four of the NLCS. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
“Through every high and low, thank you to our fans for riding with us all season. We appreciate the love and support more than you know. This isn’t the end — we’ll be back,” Tucker wrote in an Instagram post.
For most of 2026, the four-time All-Star was far from full form. Tucker ended the regular season with a .233 batting average, 17 home runs and 70 RBIs. He entered October with a .715 OPS, the lowest mark since his debut season in 2018 when he played 28 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Kyle Tucker hits a two-run home run against the Atlanta Braves in the sixth inning of Game 1 of the NLDS, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026, in Los Angeles. Wally Skalij for the CA Post
Tucker’s struggles became a point of contention among the fan base, but the star outfielder came to life in the postseason. The 29-year-old averaged .333 with a .967 OPS in October, which was perhaps the only highlight of his inaugural Dodgers season.
Dodgers outfielder Kyle Tucker wanders in between innings of the MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, August 21, 2026, in Los Angeles, California. CHRIS TORRES/EPA/Shutterstock
The Dodgers, who face an uncertain future after the failed quest for a three-peat, will need Tucker to play at All-Star strength the entire 2027 season as one of the many veterans on the roster. While Tucker’s performance next year can’t be known, one thing is certain, the Dodgers will surely try to get younger this winter.
TUSCON, AZ - OCTOBER 10: Demetrio Crisantes #1 of the Salt River Rafters throws to first base during the game between the Scorpions and the River Rafters at Kino Veterans Memorial Stadium on Saturday, October 10, 2026 in Tuscon, Arizona. (Photo by Jill Weisleder/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
The MLB playoffs are not the only professional baseball going on right now. Here in Arizona, the Arizona Fall League (AFL) is showcasing some of the game’s top prospects in a rather more… relaxed setting, shall we say. There are six teams in the AFL, each being a combination of prospects from five different MLB teams. They play against each other for a period of about a month, at venues around the Valley, along with an All-Star game and a Championship Game at the end of the year. Arizona’s prospects play at the team’s spring home of Salt River Fields, as part of the Salt River Rafters.
Nine games into the season, the Rafters are 6-3. That’s good enough for second-place, but only half a game separate the leaders, the Scottsdale Scorpions, from the Rafters and the Surprise Saguaros. It has been a very offensive-minded league, with teams averaging 6.11 runs per game. But that’s absolutely par for the course: last year’s figure was almost identical at 6.13. The Rafters are middle of the pack on both sides of the ball, currently ranked third by OPS (.754) and fourth by ERA (5.42). However, they do have the best fielding percentage at .981, having made only six errors – that’s one-third of the total made by the Saguaros (18 across their nine games).
Eight Diamondbacks prospects are present on the Rafters roster, three position players and five pitchers. Leading the way is Demetrio Crisantes, Arizona’s No. 1 prospect and their only representative in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100, where he is No. 84 overall. He got off to a hot start, going 8-for-17 across his first four games, including a 4-for-5 night against the Mesa Solar Sox, where he had a double, 4 RBIs, 3 runs, and stole a base. However, things have become considerably tougher since, Crisantes adding just one more hit in 15 at-bats, with five strikeouts. His line is now down to .281/.324/.438, though the .762 OPS is still the best among the D-backs hitters.
Also seeing time is outfielder Nathan Hall, who perhaps has the weirdest line of any hitter in the AFL to date. He hasn’t hit much, going 3-for-22 with five K’s. But he has amassed eleven walks in that time: so while his BA is an underwhelming .136, his OBP is a perfectly respectable .424. Not many players have an OBP more than twice their SLG (.182). We’ll see if it lasts. Finally, there’s third baseman Yassel Soler. While ranked as the system’s No. 30 prospect by MLB Pipeline, he has just a .377 OPS, having gone 3-for-20 with two walks and no extra-base hits. However, worth noting Soler is still just 20 years old, making him very young to be facing some of the game’s top pitching prospects.
On the pitching side, things are a little tougher to monitor, because we are looking at some extremely small sample sizes. Nobody has yet reached even three innings of work, basically meaningless for sabermetric analysis. Of the five pitchers sent by Arizona, only Patrick Forbes is a starter, and the team is being very cautious about his appearances, because a strained flexor limited him to less than 30 IP this year. Our 1st-round pick from 2025 (#29 overall) is this likely limited to five or six AFL outings. So far, he has started once, allowing a single run over 2.2 innings, but getting good reviews from Jack for his sweeper. Wes covered Forbes in more detail last month.
Among the relievers, most excitement is probably going to lefty Joe Ariola. A 7th-round pick in 2025, he went through four levels in 2026, finishing at Double-A Amarillo. It’s his crazy K-numbers which jump off the board: 64 strikeouts in only 34.2 innings and 140 batters faced. In the AFL, he has appeared three times, allowing one hit over 2.1 innings, with no walks and three strikeouts. Again, given the quality of the opposing hitters, that’s impressive. The other lefty is Luke Craig, another man looking to make up for lost time. Since signing in July 2024, he has just 31.1 IP due to Tommy John in early 2025. He has given up two runs in two innings here, but I’ll settle for “staying healthy”.
Connor Foley is another who had impressive K-numbers, with 46 across 26 IP between Rookie and A-ball. That may explain why the RHP got a bonus of $1 million from the D-backs, despite falling to Arizona as a fifth-round pick. But he didn’t start pitching until he was a senior in high school, so is a work in progress, with 1.1 scoreless innings in the AFL reaching 98 mph. Finally, there’s John West – at 6’8” and 265 lbs, he’s likely on his way to becoming Mark Grace’s favorite ballplayer. West is more likely to become an “innings eater”, but allowed two home runs while recording four outs over his only AFL appearance to date.
One other thing of interest in the AFL, is a rule change being tested out at Salt River Fields. It has previously been a Petri dish for things like pitch timers and ABS challenges, but this one seems to be less warmly received. Fangraphs reports, “Dark green hash marks have been painted on the outfield grass and at points along the arc where the infield dirt meets the outfield grass. Defenders have to stand within a certain distance of these hash marks when a pitch is thrown.” The aim is, as with the ban on shifts, to increase offense. But Keith Law was not impressed: “The solution still rests with the pitchers, not rearranging the deck chairs in the outfield.” What do you reckon?
CORAL GABLES, FL - MAR 12: Miami right-handed pitcher Alejandro Rosario (24) pitches in the first inning as the Miami Hurricanes faced the NC State Wolfpack on March 12, 2023, at Mark Light Field at Alex Rodriguez Park in Coral Gables, Florida. (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Last offseason, the Nats traded MacKenzie Gore in exchange for five prospects. Four of those prospects have already played, and have shown varying levels of promise. However, there was a 5th who had to miss all of last season with Tommy John Surgery. The story of Alejandro Rosario is mysterious, but he posted that he was back on the mound for the first time in over 600 days.
Remember RHP Alejandro Rosario? Top pitching prospect acquired in the Gore trade. He's back on the mound for the first time in over 600 days. Pitching here at the #Nats facility in West Palm Beach. pic.twitter.com/XgcciAJgED
Rosario was always the wild card of the Gore deal. He has had a strange and volatile baseball career so far. Coming out of high school, Rosario was a known commodity. However, he decided to forgo the draft in favor of pitching at the University of Miami. He struggled at Miami, posting an ERA over 7 in his sophomore and junior seasons.
Despite that, Rosario still got drafted in the 5th round by the Rangers in 2023 due to his pedigree and stuff. The gamble the Rangers made on Rosario immediately looked like a wise one. He shredded the lower minors in his first season of pro ball. Rosario posted a 2.24 ERA with 129 strikeouts to just 13 walks in 88.1 innings in 2024.
Alejandro Rosario | RHP | 24 yo
Before his elbow injury in 2024, Rosario posted absurd K/BB numbers that landed him on top 100 lists.
A+, AA (2024): 2.24 ERA | 0.93 ERA | .207 BAA 88.1 IP | 129 SO | 13 SO
Those numbers made him a top 100 prospect. There were not many holes in Rosario’s profile at the time. His fastball sat around 96-97 and could touch 100. The right paired that with a filthy splitter that took major strides forward in pro ball. That pitch sat around 90 MPH and was a wipeout offering. His last pitch is a nasty slider that flashed plus.
The raw stuff was impressive, but I would argue his command was even better. Rosario had some strike-throwing problems at Miami, but he pounded the zone in the pros. He walked less than 4% of hitters in 2024. That combination just overwhelmed minor league hitters.
5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 9 K for Alejandro Rosario in the @GoWoodDucks shutout win on Saturday.
— Rangers Player Development (@TEXPlayerDev) May 26, 2024
However, Rosario has not thrown a pitch since that season, which makes him a very boom or bust prospect. Before the 2025 season, Rosario suffered a torn UCL which required Tommy John Surgery. The issue is that Rosario did not actually undergo Tommy John Surgery in 2025.
It is unclear why that did not happen. I am not sure if we will ever know the full details, but it seems like there was some other issue that prevented the surgery. It might have been medical or something else, but the surgery did not happen.
Even after Rosario got traded to the Nats, there was mystery surrounding whether he got the surgery. It was reported he got the surgery in the winter, but it turned out that was not the case. Eventually, Rosario finally got the surgery though.
With the news that Rosario is throwing again, it seems like the recovery is going well. Heading into next season, this will be one of the more fascinating storylines to follow. Rosario is also Rule 5 eligible this offseason, so the Nats have a decision to make there as well.
Obviously, this is far from a guarantee, but if Rosario looks like he did in 2024, he will be the best player from the Gore package. Sure, he turns 25 in January, but the combination of stuff and command is rare. Of all the minor leaguers, he might be the one I am most intrigued by.
There are so many possibilities here. Maybe the best role for him could be in the bullpen, at least to start. After all, it will take him a while to build up from an innings perspective. However, there is a world where Rosario could have a Cade Cavalli like trajectory where he is a top of the rotation arm in a couple years.
It is nice to finally have news about Rosario. Hopefully, there are no ill effects from the surgery and he can thrive again. One of the reasons Toboni wanted a volume focused package for Gore was so he can take a gamble on Rosario. This is a mysterious situation, but there is monster upside in Alejandro Rosario.
May 3, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees third baseman Ryan McMahon (19) at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
In truth, the decision for the Least Valuable Player of the 2026 Yankees only ever boiled down to two players. The two standout candidates for this ignominious award were Ryan McMahon and Trent Grisham, and for very similar reasons. In addition to their black hole bats polluting the lineup, there was apprehension from the start that they could ever provide the amount of value commensurate with the amount of money they were earning. The pair combined to cost the Yankees a hair over $38 million in 2026 — 11.3-percent of their estimated $335.8 million luxury tax payroll — and yet combined to produce just 1.2 fWAR, or a measly 2.8-percent of the team’s 43.1 overall fWAR. McMahon narrowly edges Grisham for the distinction for the 20-point gap in their wRC+ (78 vs. 98) and regression in the one area where he was supposed to excel: defense.
When it became apparent that a key cog of Operation Run It Back concerned persisting with McMahon as the team’s starting third baseman, the mental gymnastics required to rationalize this decision began tying fans’ minds in knots. “If the Yankees can find a way to help his bat take advantage of the Yankee Stadium short porch and bring it closer to league average production, this along with his reliably stellar defense at the hot corner creates a player with plenty of value to the 2026 team,” was a common refrain.
The problem with this wishful thinking became immediately obvious when you realize that McMahon has never posted a league average or better season at the plate by wRC+ despite playing the first eight-and-a-half seasons of his career at Coors field, rendering the belief that you could suddenly transform a 31-year-old hitter into something he had never been a folly.
McMahon’s season began worse than even the most pessimistic fan could have predicted with just a 51 wRC+ and 33-percent strikeout rate through the end of April. The walk rate that had provided a nominal floor of offensive value was drying up and he was bleeding bat speed, leading to a tweak in the width of his batting stance that provided a modest improvement but still nothing close to the 91 wRC+ hitter he had been over the previous five seasons. McMahon missed 38 games after dealing with a late-June throat infection and a mid-August Grade 2 thumb sprain, but by that point was already ceding reps at third to a pair of ostensibly worse defenders in José Caballero and Amed Rosario.
The Gold Glove caliber defense which convinced the Yankees to acquire him from the Rockies at the 2025 trade deadline had deserted him. It got to the point where the Yankees were giving practice reps to Anthony Volpe at the hot corner — a position he had never played in his professional career — in the days leading up to the playoffs. It culminated in a play which really summarized his season in a nutshell, McMahon booting a routine grounder from Yandy Díaz, the first batter the Rays sent to the plate in Game 2 of the ALDS. That error started an avalanche of defensive miscues that ended with four errors in an ugly 5-2 loss.
For a player brought in for his defense, it begged the question “what do you even do here?” McMahon rode the bench in Game 3 as the Yankees got swept, bringing an end to possibly the worst season of his big league career when combining all the factors. He finished with a putrid .213/.279/.357 triple slash line, with 11 home runs, 41 RBIs, a 78 wRC+, and 0.5 fWAR in 360 plate appearances across 124 games. His .279 OBP and 78 wRC+ placed him among the 20 worst hitters in MLB with at least 350 PAs in 2026. His 11 home runs, 78 wRC+, 7.8-percent walk rate, zero Statcast Outs Above Average, and 0.5 fWAR were all the lowest marks of his career since the COVID-shortened season of 2020 and easily the worst marks of any season in which he played at least 100 games.
He also cannot be separated from the broader context of the team. His presence on the roster emboldened the Yankees to re-up with Rosario over the winter to reprise his platoon partner role. That turned into an unmitigated disaster, Rosario immediately forgetting how to hit against lefties — the one thing he was supposed to be good at — while producing an almost impossibly bad -7 OAA in just 394 innings, his seven errors at third coming in moments that contributed to costing the Yankees a shot at the division.
The most disheartening aspect of the whole charade is that everybody could see it coming. It is therefore not so much an indictment on McMahon — a known quantity who happened to regress in the one area where he still provided some value — as it is on the Yankees front office for allowing third base to remain a perennial black hole. In the words of our fearless leader Andrew Mearns, it all started with “the original sin of giving DJ LeMahieu six years to save on taxable AAV.”
Since signing LeMahieu to that second contract prior to the start of the 2021 season, eleven players have taken at least 100 plate appearances while manning third base for the Yankees. Below is a breakdown of the amount of guaranteed money paid out to each of those players and the offensive production and value they provided:
It total, the Yankees have paid out $222.5 million to players who have soaked up the majority of playing time at the hot corner. The 89 wRC+ those players have returned ranks 21st in baseball while the 11.5 fWAR is only a touch better in 19th place. Plenty of teams have committed nine-figure sums to the position during that span — Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Carlos Correa, Austin Riley, Alex Bregman, José Ramírez, Matt Chapman, and Kevin McGonigle have all signed deals in excess of $150 million — but outside of Rendon and Correa no team gets a consistently worse return on the amount of money they invest in third base than the Yankees.
McMahon is just the latest figurehead of this maddening trend. The Yankees owe him $16 million in 2027. After a disastrous 2026 campaign, the question for McMahon is not whether he can fulfill that outlay with value on the field. It’s whether the Yankees will follow a similar path as they did with LeMahieu in 2025, Aaron Hicks in 2023, and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2019 and cut bait this offseason, eating the dead money for the privilege of not having to subject fans to his poor play.
#JustAKidFromPR,” Hernandez said.
