It’s that time again! Pitchers and catchers will soon report for spring training, so it’s time to dive into my rankings for 2026.
This is now my third year publishing my top 150 starting pitchers. I published a version of these in November, but obviously, there have been some changes after the offseason. If you’ve read my work before, you know I generally hate publishing starting pitcher rankings because they never feel done to me. As somebody who spends a lot of time watching/thinking about pitching, I always feel like there are tweaks I want to make or pitchers who I constantly change my opinion of.
It’s important to note that I only partially rely on surface-level stats when constructing my rankings. I will look at last year’s SIERA, K-BB%, swinging strike rate (SwStr%), and Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) to get a sense of how the pitcher performed (even though I usually remember), but much of my analysis is done by breaking down a pitcher’s arsenal. I’ll use the Pitcher List pages, plus my knowledge of the pitcher, to get a sense of whether I believe the pitcher can consistently pound the strike zone and miss bats, and whether he has a deep enough arsenal to pivot if something isn’t working. I don’t use projections in my pitcher analysis, so you may see some variation from typical rankings, and I’m OK with that.
As always, the pitchers are split into tiers, which I’ve named with movie quotes this year, so you can hopefully understand why the pitchers are ranked where they are. The tiers themselves are more important than the rankings inside the tiers, so I wouldn’t split hairs over a few spots in the rankings.I’ve also ranked these pitchers as if I’m doing a 12-team league, so safe but boring low-end starters take a hit in value, etc.
PLEASE READ: I went to a lot of effort to ensure I share my thoughts on the rankings below, so you’ll find short blurbs with my thoughts “off the dome” for these guys. I would highly encourage you to read the blurb and not just focus on the ranking because it allows you to get a sense of WHY I have the pitcher ranked where I do, and if that logic makes any sense to you.
OK? Ok, so let’s get started.
Yes, I know what happens in "Titanic," but in that moment, nobody had it better than Jack and Rose. In this moment, nobody has it better than these three arms. They were my top three in November, and nothing has changed that. I'd imagine these are everybody's top three starting pitchers.
Look, all three of Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skenes are elite, so you're kind of splitting hairs here. For me, there are a few deciding factors. For one, Crochet and Skubal miss more bats, ranking 1st and 2nd in all of baseball in strikeout rate. Skubal and Crochet also threw more innings than Skenes last year, and Skenes pitches for the worst team of the three, which could impact win totals. Crochet and Skubal have more clearly dominant out pitches in my mind, and so I lean with the two of them over Skenes and favor Skubal because he has a longer track record of success than Crochet.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the “workhorse” of the Dodgers’ rotation, making 30 starts. He looks like the most likely candidate to lead the team in innings in 2026 and was electric when he was on the mound. I know some people have concerns about him pitching in the World Baseball Classic and then starting this season healthy, but this is a guy who threw over 190 innings per season in consecutive seasons in Japan; I'm not overly worried about his durability. We just saw what 170 innings from him does for your fantasy team, and you'd be ecstatic if he does it again.
Last season, I said that Bryan Woo would be a top-20 pitcher if he could stay healthy, but I didn’t rank him there because I didn’t believe in his health. Whoops. Woo has great fastballs and improving secondaries, and is perhaps the highest upside pitcher in this tier if we could guarantee health. We can't, unfortunately, so you might feel that this is too large a risk to take (and I mostly don't draft starting pitchers early enough to take ones in this tier, so I may agree). However, I think this is where he belongs based on his talent.
Cole Ragans was in my top 10 heading into 2025 after posting a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 223 strikeouts in 186.1 innings the season before. However, he battled through a groin injury last year and wasn't able to live up to those expectations. Still, he came back from his groin injury healthy at the end of the season and was striking out tons of batters, which makes me confident that he will head into 2026 with the same potential for excellence.
Logan Gilbert battled some injuries this past season and continues to struggle to maintain a consistent approach. However, despite that, he also continues to produce, registering a 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 32% strikeout rate. Maybe I’m too high on him because he has yet to deliver at the level of a true fantasy stud, but he has all the tools and an elite home park. It will happen one season. Perhaps this is the one.
Max Fried is just about as safe as they come. He’s had minor injuries over the last two seasons, but we know that when he’s on the mound, he is really good in every category without being a true elite standout in any. There is very little risk with Fried.
Hunter Greene was electric in 2025, posting a 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 31.4% strikeout rate. He added velocity on both his fastball and slider and also established better command with the slider, which negated the need for a crucial third pitch. However, he was also on the injured list for almost two months with a groin/hip/back injury. The good news is that it wasn't an arm injury, but the increase in velocity will always make him a higher risk of injury.
Cristopher Sanchez was a breakout star in 2025, posting a 2.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 26.3 percent strikeout rate in 202 innings. He pitches for a strong team and has an elite changeup to put away righties. The breakout feels very real; however, I don't think we're going to see the ratio production that we saw last year because that came with an 80% left-on-base rate and some strong hit luck. I do think Sanchez is good for an ERA around 3.00, and so I'd be more than happy with him as my ace.
Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
I discussed Hunter Brown in my presentation at First Pitch Arizona, and there are a few things that make me pause a bit. His fastball command was poor last year, with a fastball zone rate under 50%, and his entire arsenal grades out poorly in Pitcher List’s PLV model, which takes location into account. I don't want to over-weigh those things, and I still think Brown is good, hence the ranking, but I have some pause about placing him in the tier above until we see the fastball command improve and a true secondary pitch standout from the rest.
Jacob deGrom pitched 172.2 innings in 2025, and we know he’s elite when he gives us volume. Yes, he’s not as dominant as he was in previous seasons, and there’s no guarantee that he pitches over 130 innings next season, but I can take the gamble here.
I know many people have George Kirby higher, but some red flags jumped out at me when I did my FPAZ presentation. His best secondary to righties is a slider that posted just a 14% swinging strike rate, which is fine but not truly elite, and his fastball zone rate has decreased in each of the last two seasons. I don’t love that combination if I want an SP1 for my team. He does feel like a safer bet for innings than most of the other arms in this tier, which is why he's ranked above them, but I'm not sure his upside is as high.
Joe Ryan’s season nose-dived a bit once the Twins started selling off pieces and not contending. I can’t really blame him for that. The talent is there, and I expect him to be on a new team (eventually) that may have some direction on how to establish a consistent approach with his secondaries. Even without a new team, Ryan has an elite fastball and a deep pitch mix that gives him safety even if that one secondary pitch hasn't truly emerged.
Spencer Schwellenbach also came up in my presentation at FPAZ. I'm just such a big fan of what he brings to the table: a true six-pitch mix with a plus fastball, a slider for whiffs to righties, and a splitter for whiffs to lefties. I know he fractured his elbow because of his increased velocity, but I don't think he needs that added velocity to be really good. If he comes back throwing 96, I'll still have him cemented as a top 20 starting pitcher.
Yes, I have Kyle Bradish in this tier. I look at him a bit like I looked at deGrom heading into 2025 after deGrom came back and made three starts in 2024. We have seen that Bradish is healthy, and we’ve seen what he can do when he is. His slider and curve are elite secondary pitches that will help him rack up strikeouts, and he understands that his four-seamer isn't an elite pitch, but he has a good approach and command of it to keep hitters off the barrel.
Logan Webb used to be a fringe top 10 pitcher because of his innings reliability and solid ratios. However, we’ve seen his WHIP become a bit less consistent thanks to some pitch mix tinkering. I’m not sure Webb has settled into what type of pitcher he wants to be, and maybe the new coaching staff can help with that. My concerns about his WHIP and the infield defense behind him (Luis Arraez at 2B? Gross), have him down near the bottom of this tier for me.
Chris Sale remains elite when he's on the mound, but we also know that he’s rarely on the mound for the full season. Similarly, Shohei Ohtani is in this tier thanks to his confusing workload. We assume the Dodgers will use a six-man rotation or limit his innings in some capacity in 2026. Ohtani has elite strikeout upside and a great chance at wins, but what if he throws just 130 innings? It’s certainly possible, so workload concerns keep both of these guys a little lower than their raw talent would indicate.
This is a tier of pitchers who have clear ace upside but plenty of question marks either about health, team context, or lack of track record. I will certainly target at least one pitcher in this tier, maybe two, but I don’t think I can wait around and take one as my ace.
Freddy Peralta was tremendous this past season, but he had 18th-percentile four-seam fastball command and benefited from the dead ball, which led to far fewer home runs than usual. However, he also leaned on his curveball a bit more often, which was a solid move for him. I think the batting average luck will regress to the norm a bit, but he also gets a ballpark upgrade moving to Citi Field, so I'm treating Peralta as if he'll produce slightly below the level we saw last year.
I’m fully in on Eury Perez heading into 2026, as I noted in my FPAZ presentation. Last year, he featured a sweeper with a 22% swinging strike rate to righties and a harder slider with a 21% swinging strike rate to lefties. He throws a 98 mph fastball with an elite zone rate and has a deep five-pitch mix. He's now another year removed from Tommy John surgery, and I think this is the breakout season.
Speaking of poor fastball command, Dylan Cease had an 8th-percentile zone rate on his four-seamer last year. That's, um, not good. At this point, I think we know who Cease is. No approach or team will change that. He has toyed with adding new pitches, but can't seem to find consistency with them. He'll have stretches where he's nearly unhittable and stretches where he can't find the zone. It may even out in the end, but the process will be a huge headache.
Pablo Lopez has said that he was healthy enough to pitch at the end of the season and would have if the Twins had been in contention. I know we don't always take players at their word when it comes to their health, but it makes some sense here, so I'm ranking Pablo as if he's healthy. That's a pitcher I had in the top 10 heading into last season, so even if I was overly bullish on him then, I still think he has the ability to be a top 25 starting pitcher this season.
These are all pitchers who have some track record of success and have spiked really strong seasons, so I know, intellectually, they belong in this range, but I just can't shake the feeling that I don't trust them.
Framber Valdez is who he is at this point. He’s a two-pitch pitcher who relies heavily on his curveball and will have stretches of elite production and stretches where he gets hit too hard. However, he has never been bad, and I can’t see him becoming bad, no matter where he signs.
Nick Pivetta had his best HR/FB% season ever, and you have to think the deadened ball we saw in 2025 had something to do with that. What if that ball isn’t back in 2026? Can we really trust a pitcher who only has one season with an ERA under 4.00? Maybe I should, but, for me, this ranking is as far as my trust goes.
Really, the only knock against Drew Rasmussen last year was volume, which is to be expected after coming off Tommy John surgery. He’ll no longer be pitching home games in a minor league park, and I think he could push six or seven innings in most of his starts now. He’s not the highest upside arm, and there's a good chance the Rays just keep him around 160 innings, so that’s why he’s in this tier.
All of these guys have the upside to finish inside the top 20 overall starters, but also have clear warts or a lack of track record, which adds some volatility. However, if I can get an established ace earlier in my drafts, I'd love to snag at least two of these guys.
I have more concerns about Tyler Glasnow’s health than I do most of the other pitchers in the top 25, and so this may be the year I finally decide not to rank him that highly. He'll be healthy to start the season, so you can bank on the production from him now and adjust later, if need be, but he has only one season in his entire career with over 120 innings, so I can't in good conscience expect more than that from him.
Like all Rays pitchers, Ryan Pepiot will no longer be pitching in a minor league park, which could mean fewer home runs, which were a major problem for him in 2025. He continues to rock really above-average H/9 rates and a solid swinging strike rate, and I think this is the season it comes together.
Michael King was my 8th-ranked starting pitcher coming into last season, but a shoulder injury sapped much of that production. However, that was due to a pinched nerve and not any issue that was connected to baseball, so I'm not going to use that injury as a knock on his durability. Even if I can’t give him 180 innings again, I also can’t pretend that I don’t love the skillset, so this feels like a good place to rank him.
We know Blake Snell is never a good bet for a full season, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts came out and said in January that Snell's arm was "exhausted" from the postseason run, and he was delayed in starting his offseason program. There's now a very good chance that Snell will not be ready to start the season. I know he may still get to 130 innings, but it's really hard to draft somebody inside the top 20 or 25 starters if they're not going to be ready to start the season, and we also know they're highly unlikely to throw more than 130 innings. I may let somebody else deal with the headache.
I have come around a bit on Cam Schlittler, but I still have some concerns, which I outlined in my FPAZ presentation. For starters, he’s so fastball heavy. He has a four-pitch mix, and three of them are fastball variations. He doesn't throw a single pitch to righties that's under 91.5 mph, unless you count a curve that he only uses 5% of the time, which I don't. I think that could be an issue over the longer season. Also, his four-seam fastball had below-average command. That’s not great. Factor in a massive jump in velocity that has me worried about a Schwellenbach-type injury, and I just can't go much higher than this.
I think the hype for Jacob Misiorowski has outpaced the results a little bit. Yes, he’s tons of fun, but there were valid concerns about his command coming into the season, and he posted a 4.36 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 66 MLB innings. The strikeouts are awesome, but the Brewers may be cautious with his innings, and the WHIP may always hurt you a bit.
We saw the home run issues come into play for Shota Imanaga again in 2025, and he also battled a hamstring injury; however, I think the talent is there, and the Cubs should be a good team with a solid defense behind him. He doesn't walk batters, which will keep his WHIP down, but his fastball velocity dipped last year, and I just don't think he's anywhere near the fantasy ace that we previously thought he was.
Yes, I’m this high on Nick Lodolo. He just had the best season of his career. His curve is a tremendous swing-and-miss pitch, and he features multiple fastball variations for all hitters. His hit suppression has always been strong, and the command has improved over the last few seasons. Health and his home park are the only big bugaboos, but he is exactly the type of SWATCH (Southpaw With a Tight Changeup) that Nick Pollack and I discussed on the "On the Corner" podcast has proven to be a real recipe for success.
People are so ready to write off Bubba Chandler because the Pirates keep him in the minors forever, and then he got frustrated and started over-throwing or trying to prove himself, which led to command issues he hadn’t had before and didn’t show in the majors. Then he got to the majors and looked like one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. I’m a believer.
Chase Burns’ strikeout upside is real, which we know because he posted 10+ strikeouts across four starts at one point in the season. He also had a 4.24 ERA over that stretch as well. He has a narrow pitch mix and gives up more contact on his fastball than you’d think at his velocity. Oh, and his home park sucks. However, the slider is a wipeout pitch, and I think there could be a step forward in 2026 given how quickly he progresses through the minors. I think those strikeouts will outweigh some of the negatives, which is why I have him here, but I have some concerns.
Jesus Luzardo is tremendously volatile; we know this, but a new sweeper was a tremendous addition for him, and we know that the Phillies will put him in a solid position for wins regularly. But I think we've already seen his upside. I don't believe there is another level to unlock, and I think consistency will always be something that eludes him, so I had to keep him in this tier.
I’m a sucker for Edward Cabrera. He made the change to use his sinker as his primary fastball in 2025, and it led to massive improvements in command. That allowed him to get ahead in the zone more and set up his plus slider and curve, both of which had SwStr% over 18.5%. Yes, there may always be an injury or innings cloud over Cabrera, but we have finally seen him start to make the changes we wanted to see from him, and I think a new organization is only going to push those changes further. Plus, the Cubs have a much better infield defense than the Marlins, so I think we have the makings of a potential top-25 arm here if we get a full season of health (which we probably won't, hence the ranking).
I wrote about Tatsuya Imai earlier this offseason in our Player News blurbs, which you can check out here, but I said: “The 27-year-old Imai is coming off a strong season that saw him post a 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 178/45 K/BB ratio in 163 2/3 innings. It was his second straight season with 163 or more innings, and he continued to show that he could return his mid-to-high 90s velocity on his fastball over a full year. He also posted a career-high strikeout rate that was better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s mark in his final NPB season. In addition to his high strikeout totals, Imai has proven to be a solid groundball pitcher with a six-pitch mix that includes a slider, changeup, splitter, curveball, and sinker.” I think people are unfairly worried about his performance or his innings totals, and I'm more than happy to scoop up shares.
Robbie Ray added a changeup and had some stretches of solid production that push for top 25 value, but he also has below-average fastball velocity and command, which I don’t love. He still only throws one fastball type, and the swing-and-miss wasn’t really present for him this past season. He may be more of an SP2-3 in fantasy now.
Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
I always believed Sandy Alcantara was more of a safe SP2 than an ace. I was wrong for a while, but perhaps it’s settling in a bit now. Alcantara seemed to get a little bit back to himself at the end of the season, but he’s going to remain a low-upside arm with slightly more volume risk than we had seen previously. I’d prefer if he were traded, but Miami was feisty down the stretch, so maybe they could be in for a solid season.
Nolan McLean was another rookie I covered in my FPAZ presentation. There are a few things I really liked about him, like his deep pitch mix, his velocity, his sinker command, and the growth he showed in 2025. I didn’t love that his sweeper, which was his main secondary pitch to righties, posted just a 5.8% swinging strike rate. That’s not gonna cut it over a long season, so he’ll need to either tweak that pitch or his approach because he's simply not going to get enough strikeouts against righties if that pitch is not a consistent two-strike weapon.
Sonny Gray is now with the Boston Red Sox, which gives him a pretty big team context upgrade. I also trust Andrew Bailey and the Red Sox pitching staff to optimize Gray's pitch mix, which is still plenty deep and full of pitches that he can locate well. He can also be a workhorse that they need, so the innings should be there. At this point, we know what we’re getting from Gray, and it’s usually pretty solid.
Cade Horton had a tremendous year and showed a deeper arsenal than we originally thought with a much-improved changeup. However, he also had a 20% strikeout rate and gave up a lot of contact. It’s not hard contact, and the defense behind him is good, so that works, and he seems like a pitcher who will eat 180 innings per season, but without the potential for more strikeouts, it's hard for me to rank him higher than this.
I recorded a video with James Schiano covering our thoughts on Ranger Suarez signing with the Red Sox,so you should check that out. Yes, his velocity has been going down, but his command is elite, and he's a groundball pitcher, which will help in Boston. He has spent his whole career pitching in a hitter's park, so that shouldn't worry anybody. We know who he is at this point.
Trevor Rogers came out of nowhere in 2026 to put up a top-25 season in a little over 100 innings. It was so out of the blue that it may seem like a fluke, but he rode a new sinker and a plus changeup to that tremendous season. Should we believe that he can do it again? I think it’s MOSTLY true, but I’m not banking on another top 25 season with such mediocre fastballs. He'll be solid for you, but he's a mid-rotation arm for your fantasy team.
Kevin Gausman is all about his splitter. We know that. He had it for much of the year last season, but he also lost it at times. He has yet to add another fastball variation (maybe he can’t), and so he will continue to be a slightly volatile arm that will be hard to use when the splitter is off. That will always cause me to be a little cautious when I rank him.
I was never a big fan of Andrew Abbott, but some pitch mix changes led to a little more swing-and-miss in his game in 2025. He leaned into his curveball more and added in a cutter, which helped alleviate some of the pressure on his four-seam fastball. He also just got better as a pitcher. His changeup took a step forward and will always perform well against righties. He’s kind of like Trevor Rogers in that way. I just wish he had a better home park.
I can’t quite figure out Trey Yesavage, and I need to be honest about that right now. He’s like Kevin Gausman, except he has a slider that can help him when his splitter abandons him. However, that slider didn't really miss bats in a small sample size last year and got hit really hard, so can we trust it? Yesavage also doesn’t have near the track record of success that Gausman does. His four-seamer has average velocity and has proven to be hittable with fairly average swing-and-miss metrics. I don’t love that and think he will be drafted too high based on his postseason performance.
Bryce Miller is coming off elbow surgery to remove bone spurs and has yet to establish consistent success at the big league level. His splitter is a solid pitch, but it's really more of a changeup. He locates it in the zone way more often than a normal splitter and has just league-average swinging strike rates (SwStr%) on it. He does use it often in two-strike counts, but the PutAway Rate on it is below league-average, so it's not really a pitch he gets punchouts on. He has also tinkered with a curve, slider, and sweeper to go along with his sinker. None of those pitches has really popped as an above-average secondary, so this is where the path to improvement lies with Miller. I think he’s good, and I like his home park, but I don’t quite trust him yet.
Gavin Williams was “my dude” in 2025, and it didn’t work for most of the year. However, he was tremendous in the second half, so maybe it’s starting to come together. I think he’s more of a “thrower” than a pitcher, so he can’t always execute as well as he wants, and that will likely limit his overall fantasy upside. However, I love the fact that he's adding multiple fastball variations, which helps his four-seamer up in the zone pop more. If I could trust him, he'd be up by Cam Schlittler and Chase Burns and those other high upside arms.
Could MacKenzie Gore, on a new team with veterans like Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, help him unlock the consistency that has been evading him? His new slider looked great early on, but we continue to see Gore struggle to maintain a level for a full season. But, hey, if you draft him here and then cut him over the summer when he starts to pitch poorly, you’ve probably returned good value on the draft slot. If you want even more detailed thoughts, I recorded a video on the Gore trade this offseason.
Kodai Senga has not been the same guy we saw in his rookie season, but I don't think he's as far off as many believed. He still has that solid cutter to act as his high strike rate fastball and an elite Ghost Fork for swings and misses. The execution of his pitches wasn't as precise as we saw in 2023, but Senga was so good early in the 2025 season that he posted a 3.02 ERA on the year despite utterly melting down after he returned from a hamstring injury. That's the other component: injuries have played a huge role in his struggles over the last two years. However, he's not dealing with arm issues, and I still believe in the arsenal, so I’m willing to buy back in if the price dips like this.
It will be an even year, so Aaron Nola will be great. Kidding. Kind of. Nola battled injuries throughout the season, but he didn’t showcase a velocity dip or much of a change in his elite curveball. I expect a bounce-back season for Nola, to a certain extent, but I think he is more of a fantasy SP3-4 at this point in his career.
Shane Baz is another pitcher who will benefit from no longer playing in a minor league park, and is another pitcher I discussed in my FPAZ presentation. His inability to truly replace his former slider has led to some swing-and-miss concerns against righties, but he has never really allowed hard contact, and the new cutter is a solid enough pitch against righties that the floor feels a bit safe here. I'm also not ruling out the possibility that he continues to tweak his pitch mix and finds that swing-and-miss pitch to righties again.
The news that Blake Snell is likely going to be delayed to start the season means that Emmet Sheehan has the inside track to open the season in the Dodgers' rotation. I felt like he was a good bet to beat out Roki Sasaki anyway, but now he has another level of cushion. Who knows how long he'll stay in the rotation, but that was the argument against Dustin May heading into last year, and the Dodgers were so banged up that May kept starting. He wasn't particularly good, but I think Sheehan is a far better pitcher.
Pretty simply, this is a tier full of pitchers who ended the season injured or have major health questions to answer coming into spring training. Unlike a tier you'll see later, these are all pitchers who COULD be healthy for spring training, but there remain some question marks.
Shane McClanahan missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was expected to start the 2025 season in the Rays' rotation. However, a nerve issue in his final start of spring training led to him being sidelined all year. McClanahan has already been throwing, and Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander also said that McClanahan has "a day in the rotation," which means that fantasy managers should expect him to be ready to start the season and also pitch once every five days for Tampa Bay. McClanahan has a career 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 28% strikeout rate. He is an elite starting pitcher. If we assume that he will be rusty and on a pitch count early on in the season, then McClanahan could be just a decent starter early on and then settle back into a solid arm. To me, that makes him a good target if you're outside the top 40 starting pitchers and already have a strong foundation for your rotation.
It's really two injuries for Nathan Eovaldi. The right-hander was shut down in August with a rotator cuff strain, but then also underwent sports hernia surgery during the offseason. Eovaldi has said that he’s fully recovered from the rotator cuff strain and that he's coming into spring training as healthy as he has in years past. That's the key part for me. I don't love drafting pitchers who are coming off a rotator cuff injury; however, Eovaldi has battled arm injuries many times throughout his career. When you draft him, you know that you're getting good production when he's on the mound, but not a full season of innings. That's why his draft cost never gets too high, so I won't be changing the way I draft him in 2026.
Brandon Woodruff was supposed to return from shoulder capsule surgery mid-way through the 2025 season, but then he was hit by a line drive in the elbow while pitching in the minors, and then sprained his ankle on the same rehab process. When he did come back, he looked good, posting a 3.20 ERA in 64.2 innings with a 0.91 WHIP and a 32% strikeout rate. A decent amount of that success, in my opinion, was because of his new cutter, which gives him three fastball variations that attack hitters from similar release points, but with different movement profiles. That can be devastatingly confusing for a hitter. The downside is that Woodruff suffered a lat strain in September and missed the postseason. The team claims that the strain is not connected to the previous shoulder surgery, but having so many injuries to the shoulder area is concerning. I'm willing to bet that Woodruff will be good again in 2026. I'm just not willing to count on him for more than around 120-130 innings.
Kris Bubic was really good in 2025, but suffered a rotator cuff strain in July and missed the remainder of the season. He has also dealt with shoulder injuries and Tommy John surgery in previous years, which is why he has never pitched more than 130 innings in an MLB season. I think Bubic is a talented pitcher, and I think he'll be in the Royals' rotation to start the season, but I'm not banking on more than 130 innings from him so there will have to be a discount if I'm going to take him, and I'd prefer he not be one of the top four starting pitchers on my team.
Back in November, I should had Shane Bieber around my top 20, but then we got a report that he was dealing with forearm soreness at the end of the season. Couple that with his surprise decision to pick up his $18 million player option in Toronto, and I can't help but feel like Bieber also knows his arm is a ticking time bomb. On top of that, Bieber had just a 13% swinging strike rate overall in 2025 and features below-average velocity on his fastball. The introduction of the cutter has been great for him, but it has limited his strikeout upside a bit, so when paired with his injury risk, I had to move him down.
Carlos Rodon claims that he's aiming to be ready at the start of the season, but it's a little hard to trust that. Also, remember that Rodón also had left shoulder surgery in 2017, Tommy John surgery in 2019, and a forearm strain in 2023, so there are a lot of shoulder/elbow injuries in his past that we can't ignore. I like Rodón, and I had him ranked inside my top 25 before the elbow surgery. Now, I just can't see him pitching 175 innings, as he did in three of the last four years. That's going to cut into a lot of his productivity, but I could see drafting him outside of the top 40 starting pitchers, especially if I had an IL spot for him to begin the year.
There likely isn't a ton of upside with these arms, but they provide a relative sense of safety, which I'm OK with at this point in the draft.
Luis Castillo and Seth Lugo are who they are at this point in their career. The results are likely to always be there, but we’re no longer getting elite production. I'd rather have them in 15-team leagues.
Noah Cameron and Matthew Boyd are the epitome of a SWATCH. Both of them are lower-velocity pitchers with good command of a deep arsenal and a changeup that eats up right-handed hitters. I’m not sure how trustworthy they will be year-over-year, but that approach led to tons of success for them last year, and I could see it happening this year as well. Especially since they both have good defenses behind them.
Ryne Nelson seems all but assured of being in Arizona’s rotation this year, so we can avoid that headache again. Hopefully. However, he remains an elite fastball pitcher with a limited arsenal of secondaries. I do like his fastball, and his combination of elite vertical movement and low arm angle makes it really hard to hit. Having that as a foundation is great. But we've now seen two full seasons where he can seem to land on a secondary he trusts or one that is effective enough to be relied on. Unless he locks in on one of them, it's hard to see much growth for him, but what we have seen has been solid so far.
This whole tier is full of players who have been the proverbial rake in our face once or twice before, but I think there is enough there to remain somewhat intrigued.
Tanner Bibee’s had a really bad season thanks to poor secondaries that failed to cover for his average fastball. However, I like the idea of him going to multiple fastball variations to cover up for that weak four-seamer, and we have seen his secondaries perform well in the past. That plus his locked-in spot in the Guardians rotation means that I’m likely to take a gamble in 2026 since most people have jumped way off the bandwagon.
Yes, I’m this low on Spencer Strider. He returned from his second Tommy John surgery with a much worse fastball and poor command. Strider's fastball was slower, lost vertical movement, and also lost its flat attack angle, which led to a 7% decline in swinging strike rate. It did not get better as the season went on, and he doesn’t have a deep enough arsenal to survive a step back with his fastball like that. Could his fastball regain some of its juice? Of course, but it's a longer road back than many believe.
Ian Seymour is another SWATCH. He used his changeup 32% of the time last year and threw it to both righties and lefties, with success as a swing and miss pitch or command pitch based on who he's attacking. His four-seam fastball is a good pitch against lefties and a mediocre pitch against righties. However, he keeps it up in the zone well to righties, which is important because that's also where he throws a cutter that he uses 27% of the time to righties. That fastball pairing is really just about limiting damage and then setting him up to use the changeup. Seymour has always been one of the top prospects in Tampa Bay's farm system as a starter and led all qualified minor leaguers in ERA in 2024 when he posted a 2.35 mark. He was a good starting pitching prospect before they used him as a reliever so they could expedite his path to the majors. I think he's in for a breakout season as a starter in 2026.
I've been a fan of Joey Cantillo's for a little bit, and I spoke with him in August of last season about how his time in the bullpen shaped his ability as a starting pitcher. Cantillo rejoined the rotation at the end of the year and, in his final 10 starts of the season, posted a 2.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 54/22 K/BB ratio in 54.1 innings. He had a really strong 32.5% CSW and 13% SwStr% over that stretch as well. The next step forward for Cantillo, which we started to see down the stretch, is to regain some of the lost velocity on his four-seam fastball and also get more comfortable with his curve to give him a third pitch he can trust. That could lead to a breakout season for the 26-year-old. In fact, I may actually need to move him up.
Ryan Weathers was traded to the Yankees in the offseason, and I recorded a video with my full thoughts on the trade. Weathers was a "sleeper" in spring training due to a bump in velocity and some pitch mix tweaks, but he was limited to 38.1 innings and posted a 3.99 ERA with 22.3% strikeout rate that was also his career high. Those are not great numbers. However, Weathers does have the raw tools for a much better season. If the velocity holds and he throws his sinker as often as he claims he will, that should help him versus left-handed hitters, and then his changeup and slider can be good weapons for righties. Of course, the biggest obstacle to success for him will be health.
I'm pretty out on Grayson Rodriguez, which is why he's ranked down here. In March, he was placed on the IL with right elbow inflammation, and it seemed like surgery would be on the table. However, the right-hander was certain he would return, only to suffer a lat straight in April that put him on the IL. Then, in July, he re-injured his right elbow and eventually had debridement surgery in August to clean up bone spurs in his elbow. The concern for me, aside from the elbow issues, is that Rodriguez has now been on the IL three separate times with right lat strains since 2022. When you add in the fact that the Orioles traded him to the Angels this offseason, when his value was near its lowest, that's not a glowing endorsement for what the organization thought of his health. He's now on a worse team with a worse track record of developing pitching, so this is not a situation I want any part of.
It was a tough season for Zach Eflin, who suffered a lat strain in April and then landed on the IL again in June with a lower back injury. He returned after a month but only pitched in two games before landing on the IL with a back injury again. He would eventually undergo a lumbar microdiscectomy to fix a nerve-related disc issue in his back over the offseason. On one hand, he wasn't dealing with an arm issue. On the other hand, back injuries for a 32-year-old are a bit concerning. Still, it was a disc issue that was corrected via surgery, so I don't imagine he'll have many residual issues in 2026. Over his two healthy seasons in the AL East, he's essentially been a 3.50 ERA pitcher with a 22% strikeout rate and 1.10 WHIP. That will play in most formats, and that's what I expect him to get back to in 2026.
Merrill Kelly is rock solid. He lacks any real upside for fantasy baseball, so this isn't a pick I'm targeting in 12-team leagues, but he's fine near the end of your draft. He seems to be a good bet for innings, will be on a good team, and has a deep arsenal of pitches that allows him to attack both righties and lefties with success. There's nothing wrong with that kind of security for the end of your rotation. It's just not sexy.
Is Jack Flaherty on the downswing? Perhaps. His fastball velocity is down, and his breaking balls didn’t miss as many bats as they used to. However, he still got plenty of strikeouts, and that was with a weird approach of low fastballs for called strikes to set up his breaking balls low. Flaherty's fastball is too flat to work low in the zone, which is why he gave up so much hard contact. There is a path for him to become a strong fantasy asset again, but changes will need to be made.
Joe Musgrove got hurt in the NL Wild Card round back in 2024 and then had Tommy John surgery. He started throwing bullpens in August and is apparently on track to return at the start of the season and will not be on any kind of strict innings limit in San Diego, which is good news. However, part of Musgrove's value before injury was his floor. Since the start of the 2021 season, Musgrove has pitched to a 3.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 25.5% strikeout rate in 559.1 innings. That's helping you in most formats. Given that he didn't pitch at all last season and is coming off Tommy John surgery at 33 years old, we have to expect regression for Musgrove. Perhaps he's closer to his 3.73 career ERA and more of a 23% strikeout rate arm. If you wanted to take a gamble on that late in 15-team leagues, I can still see the value in his floor, but his profile, coming off an injury, is not as alluring in shallow formats.
Jameson Taillon has a deep arsenal of pitches and can command the strike zone with any of them. Plus, he has a strong defense behind him. That seems to give him a pretty safe floor every season. He also added a kick-change last year, and it was a great weapon against left-handed pitching, which was sorely needed. He’s not going to strikeout many hitters, which is why I'd target him more in deeper formats, but there is something to be said for pitchers with a safe floor on good teams.
As of now, we don't yet know where Zac Gallen will pitch next year. What we do know is that he's now had three straight seasons of allowing an Ideal Contact Rate over 40%. His swinging strike rate has declined for three years in a row, down to 10.6% last year. His CSW has also declined for three years in a row. His ERA has increased for three years in a row, and he's posted a 1.26 WHIP in each of his last two seasons. After his 2022 season, I mentioned that I was worried about how much contact he gave up and thought a regression was coming. That regression has hit hard the last two seasons. I don't think he's as bad as we saw him last year, but I think he needs a good defense behind him and maybe an attack plan change if he's going to get back to being a top 40 or 50 starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.
I like all of these pitchers from a talent standpoint, but none of them are expected to open the season healthy and in their starting rotations. I've learned the hard way in recent seasons that expecting pitchers who are coming off an injury to return and be consistent producers is a fool's errand. It's far more likely that it takes weeks or months for these guys to return and get back to the level that we expect of them, which means it's hard for me to rank them any higher than this.
Gerrit Cole is expected to return in June, but I am considerably lower on Cole than many of my Rotoworld colleagues. Cole suffered from right elbow inflammation and a nerve issue in 2024. He was able to pitch most ofthe year, but then he had elbow soreness in March and underwent Tommy John surgery. Those two issues back-to-back for a pitcher who's 35 years old doesn't make me feel great. When he returns, we have to acknowledge that he wasn't even the same strikeout pitcher before the injury. In 2023, he had a 27% strikeout rate, and that fell to 25.4% in 2024. He's no longer a 30% strikeout rate arm, and we know that he's not going to throw more than about 110-130 innings. From 2021 on, Cole has had a 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 686 innings, so if we're assuming some post-injury regression, is he a 3.40-3.50 ERA pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate and plus WHIP? That's certainly useful, but it's not a fantasy ace. Add the time missed to that, and I can't take him inside my top 40 pitchers in drafts.
Justin Steele is another pitcher with an inexact timeline for return. He had internal brace surgery on his elbow back in the middle of April, which should mean he can return to the mound early in the season. In January, we got an update that Steele feels "back to normal," and is planning to report to spring training with the rest of the pitching staff. While that is good news, we know that he's also going to use spring training to ramp up and is unlikely to break camp with the team. That could put him back sometime in late April or in May. So we have a pitcher with a 3.18 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 24.4% strikeout rate in 450 innings since the start of 2022 potentially returning in May. Even if we bake in some regression there, that's a 3.50 ERA type of arm with just under one strikeout per inning pitching for one of the better teams in the NL. You're not rushing to draft that arm early in drafts, but it's a pretty nice addition to your rotation later in drafts.
Jared Jones had an internal brace procedure in May and began throwing in December. We know thathe started throwing bullpens in January and that he "is targeting a timeline of sometime between March and May." There has also been a report that Jones could be used out of the bullpen to start the season, if the Pirates wanted to ramp him up without having him pitch in the minors. Jones was pretty good as a rookie in 2024, posting a 4.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts in 121 innings. He is predominantly a two-pitch pitcher, and we saw with Spencer Strider last year how hard it can be for pitchers with just two main pitches to return from a procedure like this. Precise command is even more important if you have a limited arsenal, so that could make this a tight needle to thread for Jones.
Zack Wheeler's situation is confusing to me. In August, he was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome and a shoulder blood clot. He had surgery at the beginning of September and was given an eight-month timeline for return at the time, which would have put him on track for May, but the team had also indicated they would be cautious with him. Now we're hearing that Wheeeler has begun throwing from 75 feet and could be available “near the start of the season.” The issue here is that "near the start of the season" apparently means anytime between Opening Day and late May. That's a two-month window where we might see Wheeler back on the mound, and then we have to acknowledge that he's coming back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which has been tricky for many starting pitchers to do.
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Do these guys have rotation spots? Some do. Some are fighting for them. Some are likely in the rotation but don't have a long enough track record of success to believe in. Regardless, there's a story you can tell yourself with all of these pitchers that leads to fantasy success.
Nick Pollack really talked me into Troy Melton at the end of last season due to Melton’s 97 mph four-seamer with seven feet of extension and flat attack angle. He also has a good slider and a deep pitch mix, but what he might not have is a spot in the rotation now that the Tigers signed Drew Anderson. That keeps Melton in this tier for me.
Roki Sasaki has some flaws. He's really just a two-pitch pitcher with a four-seam fastball that didn't miss bats last year and a splitter that he can't throw for strikes so he relies on swings outside of the zone. I know he's talking about adding in new pitches, but we saw him try a cutter last year and it just wasn't good. I still think he may wind up as an elite closer, but he has an inside track to win a rotation spot now that Blake Snell is unlikely to start the year on time.
I covered my interest in Reid Detmers in another article on post-hype pitchers. As a reliever for the Angels last season, Detmers posted a 3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 30% strikeout rate. He was even better when you factor in a brief adjustment period to his new role. From June 1st on, Detmers posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 33% strikeout rate. In that stretch, we saw him change his pitch mix and approach in ways that I think he can carry over into the rotation.
There is a lot to like about Jack Leiter. He has a good four-seam fastball with plus velocity, good extension, and a great height-adjusted vertical attack angle, which allows it to miss plenty of bats at the top of the zone. He added a sinker for strikes that allowed the fastball to play up, and his changeup produced whiffs to both righties and lefties. However, he only had a 23% strikeout rate last year because both his slider and curve did not perform well against righties in two-strike counts. The sinker led to some blister issues, and he still has some command issues with his four-seamer. He's only 25 years old, and we could easily see growth this season, but we'll need to see his secondaries take a step forward in 2026.
Zebby Matthews appears in that same post-hype pitchers article. He has a flat fastball with mediocre extension that he commands well in the zone, which leads to above-average swinging strike rates against both righties and lefties. I understand that it's not an elite fastball, and it did get hit hard this year, but I think he can miss bats with it, especially if he starts to use the cutter and sinker more often to keep hitters from sitting on the four-seamer. Zebby's slider is also a plus pitch. It had a 22% SwStr% last year, and it's effective to both righties and lefties because it's a hard, gyro slider. He throws it often in two-strike counts to all hitters, and it has plus PutAway Rates to both, with an elite 28% rate to lefties. Having a platoon neutral secondary like that is an awesome foundation. I just believe in him, man. I don’t know what to tell you. He has a deep pitch mix of solid offerings, and I know he lacks that true plus pitch, but I think he can find a sequencing and approach that will unlock success.
Will Warren had a strong stretch over the summer, but his first full MLB season was more of a rollercoaster. His four-seam fastball missed plenty of bats against righties, as did his sweeper, thanks to a sinker he also mixed in. The approach to lefties is where we get into some issues. His four-seamer performed far worse against lefties, the sweeper is not a great pitch to opposite-handed hitters, and his changeup is also not a plus whiff pitch to lefties, even though it did perform pretty well in two-strike counts. You can see the path forward here, but I need to see improvement in his plan against lefties, and he could also be at risk of losing his rotation spot if he's not performing well enough when Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole are back.
Hey, Andrew Painter is another pitcher from that post-hype article. He returned from Tommy John surgery in 2025 but had a 5.40 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 23.4% strikeout rate in 106.2 innings at Triple-A. Not being on the mound for two years and then pitching poorly when he did return has a lot of people questioning just what kind of upside Painter has. However, he still showed off that big fastball that can touch triple digits while pairing that with a plus changeup, a hard slider, and a slower curve. The command of everything was a little off in 2025, but the movement profiles were similar enough to what we saw before the surgery, and his arm held up to over 100 innings of professional baseball again. Those are all positive signs.
Landen Roupp was pitching well for the Giants before a comebacker off his knee ended his season. He made some pitch mix tweaks in the offseason that helped him win a spot in the Giants' rotation, and his sinker and kick-change are a nice pairing with a curveball that crushed right-handed hitters. I don't love that Luis Arraez is playing second base behind him, but we also see new pitches perform better in their second season, so Roupp could have another level in him.
Hurston Waldrep was really good in 2025, posting a 2.88 ERA in 56.1 MLB innings. That did come with a 1.19 WHIP and just a 24% strikeout rate, but it was a nice bounce-back for the former first-round pick after a rough stretch in 2024. During the season,I discussed some of the changes that Waldrep made to propel that breakout, like adding a sinker and a cutter, and changing his mechanics to create a more consistent landing spot. Those changes helped his command and also helped him hide his mediocre four-seam fastball, but his pitch mix remains a collection of average pitches and a good splitter. If another one of those secondary offerings takes a step forward, I could see myself moving Waldrep up, but I think there will be some rough stretches in 2026 when that splitter isn't working.
David Peterson made some strides last year by adding depth on his slider and trying to backfoot it more against righties. He has good enough velocity on his fastball and elite extension, so I have no concerns against lefties. I'd love to see his changeup be a bit more consistent to make me believe that he's a pitcher you can hold on your roster all year, but he and Manaea are the only lefties that the Mets have, so I think Peterson gets every chance to stay in this rotation.
Nobody expected Quinn Priester to do what he did in Milwaukee. After being traded to Boston in 2024, Priester revamped his pitch mix and then got an opportunity to show off his stuff after being traded to Milwaukee. Much like Tobias Myers in 2024, Priester can pound the zone with a pretty deep arsenal of pitches and keep hitters off the barrel. It led to a 3.32 ERA but just a 20% strikeout rate. I'm not sure that will ever really change. His slider and cutter can miss bats to righties at times, but they are reliant on location. I just don't see the upside in Priester.
Brayan Bello changed his entire approach in 2025, adding a cutter and attacking the strike zone with three fastball variations. That led to an impressive 3.35 ERA but just an 18% strikeout rate. The right-hander is now a sinker/sweeper arm who will induce grounders with that sinker, but the strikeouts won't come unless that sweeper takes a step forward, which he hasn't been able to do for years. The new approach has given him a safer floor, but unless his sweeper or his changeup find a level we didn't see in 2025, then Bello is really just a ratio play.
Shane Smith was pretty good in his first year as a big league starter, posting a 3.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 23.5% strikeout rate in 146.1 innings. His raw stuff isn't overly impressive, but he kept hitters off the barrel with multiple fastball variations, and then brought three secondaries to the table as well. The curveball and changeup both posted above-average SwStr%, but the command of all of his secondaries leaves a lot to be desired. I think we should see a step forward in Smith's refinement in 2026, but I don't like his fastballs or his team context
Casey Mize doesn’t miss bats, and he has struggled to develop a consistent breaking ball for years. Also, his four-seam fastball is bad, and he keeps throwing it 35% of the time. Is there a path forward for him? Sure, but he has to make some real changes, and I just don’t see a high ceiling.
Now that we're outside of the top 100 starting pitchers, I'm not going to provide write-ups on each one.
Reese Olson and Lucas Giolito both ended the season hurt, and Giolito also doesn't have a team as of now. I'm going to need to see both of them pitch in spring training before I can make a final decision on where to rank them.
In August, Grant Holmes was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear. Instead of opting for surgery, Holmes decided on a non-surgical rest or rehab path. Atlanta is claiming that Holmes is fully healthy and will be full-go for Spring Training. I know that Holmes has said he feels good, but this feels like a grenade that could go off at any time, with an upside that's not high enough for the risk.
All of these pitchers are hurt but claim to be ready for the start of the season, except for Corbin Burnes, who likely won't return until after the All-Star break. Burnes was diagnosed with ligament damage in his elbow in June of last year and then had Tommy John surgery in the middle of the month. Over the winter, Burnes himself saidthat he was "looking at probably sometime in July" for his return. Specifically, he mentioned the All-Star break, which was also Shane Bieber's target return date last year. We know that Bieber had one setback, which pushed his return date, and he only pitched 40.1 innings last season. We may get the same thing from Burnes. Even if Burnes does come back after the All-Star break, you're likely looking at 10 starts for a pitcher who has 444 strikeouts in his last 452.1 innings. This is not a gamble I'm taking in any redraft formats.
Spencer Arrighetti impressed us in 2024 and was going as a top 50 starting pitcher heading into 2025. Then he fractured the thumb on his pitching hand when he was hit with a ball during batting practice. That sidelined him for four months, and he didn't look like the same pitcher when he returned. Yet, that's to be expected since the thumb is so crucial to grip and spin for pitchers. I was ready to throw all of 2025 out the window and jump back on the Arrighetti train. Yet, Arrighetti ended the season on the IL with an elbow strain. It was something he didn't have to get surgery for, andhe was back throwing bullpens by January. He claims he'll be ready for the start of spring training, but he also isn't guaranteed a spot in the rotation after the Astros signed Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, and Ryan Weiss to add to a group that also includes Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr.
Reynaldo Lopez made one start in 2025 before landing on the IL with right shoulder inflammation and eventually undergoing surgery. On a positive note, the surgery revealed no structural damage, only inflammation, and Lopez was back throwing in July. However, by the end of August, it was clear that the Braves were not going to be contenders, so the team decided to shut Lopez down. Given that Lopez has battled injuries for much of his career and has thrown over 66 innings just once since 2019, it's fair to question his health.
This tier is filled with starting pitchers that I can see the upside for, but I either have no idea if I can trust them, or I'm not sure if they even have a rotation spot, which makes it hard to draft them.
Mike Burrows is another pitcher with a pretty mediocre fastball but a decent array of secondaries that I think could take a step forward if his new team can optimize his mix for success. He's in a better spot now. I also like Jacob Latz and think he's a solid deeper league play.
Jose Soriano and Luis Gil are impossible to understand. You never know when they're going to have a good game, but they'll certainly have many of them.
I believe that Bailey Ober can go back to being a solid but not elite fantasy starter. Connelly Early would also be great, but I don't think he has a rotation spot in Boston, and I've talked enough in my pitch mix articles about pitchers taking a step forward with new pitches in their second season, so it makes sense for me to believe that Clay Holmes' revamped arsenal becomes more consistent in 2026.
We've seen Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi be top 40 starters just a year ago, and I'm not ready to write their obituaries. I'll have some shares of both of them.
I guess Matthew Liberatore is the Cardinals' ace this season. We saw flashes from him in 2025, and he ended the season with three good starts in his last four. We saw his four-seam velocity rise and fall during the year, so that will be crucial for him in 2026. When he can sit 94-95 mph and then keep that changeup low, he can be effective against righties with a curve that works to all hitters. He's not as safe a ratio arm as some of the other pitchers in this tier, but he's going to get a long leash with some workable ratios.
Michael Soroka was pretty good in between his injuries in 2025 and now finds himself with a better team in a better home park. Tyler Mahle was also really good, but a lot of that feels fluky to me. He gave up so much contact, and he's not the strikeout pitcher he used to be, but he landed in a good spot for himself in San Francisco. I could have some interest in Nestor Cortes, but I need to see where he lands.
The Tigers signed Drew Anderson to a $7 million contract in the off-season, so he’s going to get every chance to earn a spot in the starting rotation. Early reports are that his velocity gains from Korea have carried over, as well as the new kick change he added to his arsenal when he was over there. I don’t think he’s gonna come in and light the world on fire, but we’ve seen pictures like Meryl Kelly come back from Korea with a better approach and deeper pitch mix and become solid MLB starters.
I'm not going to get into detailed blurbs about all of these guys, but this whole tier is filled with pitchers who have an argument to be fantasy viable, but I'm unsure if they have a rotation spot to start the year. If there's more clarity on any of these guys actually winning a spot in the rotation then some of them would get some big jumps, but, at this moment, it's hard to for me to say with any certainly that any of these guys other than Slade Cecconi will be in the rotation, and I just don't believe in Slade's arsenal enough to keep his strikeout rate from last season.
I covered Robert Gasser in that post hype starting pitchers article. In 2024, Gasser ranked as the 6th-best prospect in Milwaukee's system. He was coming off a 2023 season where he led all of Triple-A in strikeouts with 166 in 135.1 innings. That came with a 3.79 ERA and seemed to announce him as a legitimate prospect. He struggled to start the 2024 season, still got a call-up to the big leagues, and posted a 2.57 ERA in 28 innings across five starts, but the strikeouts didn't carry over, and then he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. However, Gasser did return for 43.2 innings in 2025, including a 2.37 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate in 38 Triple-A innings. The Brewers have no lefties in their rotation, and it's not like Chad Patrick is a lock to hold down the fifth spot.
This tier is all pitchers who you could take some chances on as later-round picks in deeper formats. I can't see any of these guys being 12-team viable right now.
Max Scherzer claims he’s healthy enough to pitch right now. He also claims he’s comfortable waiting until midseason to sign with a team. He has never really pitched poorly when he’s been on the mound, so at this point, I’m expecting about 80 to 90 innings of solid work from him this season. I will only draft him here if he’s signed with a team by spring training.
Yes, that says Alek Manoah. As of now, he's healthy and has the inside track to be a member of the Angels' rotation. We're not that far removed from him being an elite prospect and pitching like an AL Cy Young candidate. We may never get back to that level, but maybe he can just be a solid and dependable starter?
