Jul 29, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly (8) looks on from inside the dugout against the Miami Marlins during the seventh inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The season may not be technically over, but the Phillies have been in their offseason for two weeks. They have delayed their end of season press conference until today, with it now coming on the heels of the team making Don Mattingly their permanent manager. Manager was the first domino to fall for an offseason with much on the agenda, and the team’s choice has not exactly inspired the fan base’s belief in Dave Dombrowski and the front office’s ability to improve the roster or just inject some life into the franchise overall.
In any case, there is still much to be done with the team on the field. The Phillies need to at minimum fix an offense that was among the worst in the league. Doing so will be easier said than done, as they do not have much in the way of trade ammunition and the free agent market is extremely light on impact bats. They need to rebuild a bullpen that collapsed in the second half of the season partially due to their now permanent manager’s heavy handedness in management. Finally, it would behoove the Phillies to also try and find ways to improve their defense, as they ranked near the bottom there as well and featured some of the worst defenders at any position in the sport.
And that’s before even taking into account the elephant in the room that is the looming lockout that threatens to at best wipe out some of the offseason and at worst take out some of the 2027 season in addition to completely revamping the financial systems of the sport.
Because of all this, it’s not necessarily being a pessimist if you are worried about how this Phillies offseason will go. That does not mean that reasons to be optimistic do not exist, but we will discuss those tomorrow. Today we’ll start with the bad news and try to envision what would constitute a poor offseason in your mind. So, what is your worst-case scenario for this offseason?
With the 2026 season fully behind us, I decided to take a look at all of the top prospects who are likely to contribute to the major league roster next season. From the franchise cornerstones to the middle relievers, these are all of the prospects that I think could provide significant value to the Twins in 2027.
The Stars
We got a glimpse of what long-time No. 1 prospect Walker Jenkins can do in the big leagues, and after struggling for his first couple weeks, Jenkins finished the season on an absolute tear. Over his final 10 games, he slashed .385/.400/.615 for a 186 wRC+ and just a 7.5% strikeout rate. With an all-around elite skillset, Jenkins should be in the Opening Day lineup and has a chance to be one of the Twins most productive players in 2027.
Emmanuel Rodriguez finally got his chance with the Twins in September, and while he struggled some with swing decisions and ran a 33.3% strikeout rate, his batted ball data and advance metrics were phenomenal in the small sample size. E-Rod’s elite power gives him a limitless ceiling, and he has flashed some big impact in the outfield as well. Now out of options, the Twins will be forced to keep him on the major league roster in 2027, and he is capable of providing some major thump to the middle of the lineup.
While the stats and batted ball data were nothing special for Kaelen Culpepper in his first 33 major league games, he looks like he can be an impact player on offense and in the field next season. Culpepper has excellent bat speed but struggled to square the ball up and generate high-end exit velocities. He also has extreme chase issues, running a 42.8% O-Swing in his first major league stint. Still, the glove looked sharp, and he has all the raw talent needed to be an impactful hitter.
Marek Houston is on track to begin next season in Triple-A with anticipation for a 2027 debut. He looked the part in Double-A, slashing .301/.379/.450 in 60 games while playing exceptional defense at shortstop. The Twins cannot wait to add his speed and defense to the major league squad, and there is increasing hope that his bat can provide some real impact.
Starters
There is a lot to like about the direction the Twins rotation is headed in 2027. They just hired Brian Reith out of the Rays organization to be their new pitching coach, and the staff is set to be headlined by the veteran trio of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Taj Bradley. Connor Prielipp has shown frontline potential and looks to build off his promising rookie campaign, and Zebby Matthews finally looked like the pitcher we hoped he would become over his final 7 starts. The Twins also have control over Dean Kremer and Bailey Ober if they want them, both of whom were quality back-end starters this year. As injuries undoubtably occur, the Twins have a nice assortment of replacements waiting at the top of the farm system.
Of all the pitching prospects in the Twins system, Kendry Rojas is sure to be one of the top contributors to the Twins staff in 2027. While he nibbled too much and struggled with walks this year, he showed an impressive feel for location along with mid-rotation stuff. If he can improve his stuff even more next year and lengthen his outings, Rojas can firmly fit into the Twins rotation. Otherwise, he is a fun lefty bullpen arm.
Now two years into his pro career, Ryan Gallagher struggled in Triple-A this summer, but he possesses all of the tools needed to be a quality innings eater in the Twins rotation. Strike-throwing has been inconsistent and he could use some added fastball velocity, but if we see some improvements going into 2027, Gallagher will fit nicely as a 7th or 8th starter option.
Riley Quick still has a ways to go in his development, but with improved command, his electric stuff could absolutely push him into the Twins rotation in 2027. Quick was terrorized by walks and homers this season, but elite strikeout and whiff rates were able to keep his numbers afloat. There is potential for a huge breakout next year if he can stay health and be more of a pitcher than a thrower.
Righty flamethrower Adrian Bohorquez has struggled with injuries and is only 4 starts into his Double-A tenure, but he is developing well, and his overpowering stuff may force him into the majors one way or another in 2027. The big question with Bohorquez is if he can consistently get lefties out. He was dominant against righties in 2026, allowing just a .194 SLG with a 32.1% strikeout rate but a .344 SLG with a 23.1% strikeout rate against lefites. The back end of the bullpen may be a better fit if he can’t find a put-away pitch for left-handed hitters.
Eli Jones had his season end in late May due to injury, but he was pitching well in his first taste of Double-A, and he projects well as a back-end strike-thrower. Jones had a velo spike into the mid-90s this year, and with further stuff development, he has a chance to provide some innings to the Twins rotation in 2027.
Role Players
Its impossible to not get caught up in the excitement of prospects like Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, but the Twins need to get production out their second-tier prospects as well. These guys maybe don’t quite have the ceiling or the polish of a high-end prospect, but there is potential for significant value with them in the right role.
After struggling to hit the ball in Double-A the last two years, Ben Ross had an unlikely breakout in 2026, posting a 108 wRC+ in Triple-A and making his MLB debut in September. While Ross lacks true bat talent, his elite swing decisions allow him to put together good at-bats. Defensively, he can play anywhere in the infield or outfield at a high level and is a plus runner. There is a lot to like about keeping Ben Ross on the roster as a bench utility defender and pinch runner.
Hendry Mendez struggled a bit down the stretch as he dealt with injuries, but he still finished the season with a 107 wRC+ in 78 games at Triple-A, and he has one of the most impressive offensive skillsets in the system. With plus contact skills, violent bat speed, and elite swing decisions, the only thing holding Mendez back at the plate is his extreme ground ball rates. While he is a poor outfield defender and will be better suited at DH, he profiles as an on-base machine with some big upside if he can elevate the ball more.
We got mixed results out of Brandon Winokur’s bat this year as he pushed into Double-A. He totaled 21 homers and 30 stolen bags with average offensive production across 127 games. His defense has continued to develop nicely as Winokur has the athleticism and arm to be a plus defender at third base and center field. There is plus raw power in the tank, and if he can maintain his 79% zone contact rate while improving his swing decisions, there is some big slug potential. 2027 will be a very interesting year for Brandon Winokur as he pushes close to the majors.
Khadim Diaw is one of the most well-rounded prospects in the Twins system and has also been one of the most productive since he joined the organization in 2024. He lacks raw power, but plus contact skills and an extremely patient approach make Diaw an on-base machine. He also possesses an intriguing catcher/outfield defensive profile that would give the Twins some valuable versatility. It’s unclear exactly how high the offensive ceiling is or if he will end up playing any catcher at the major league level, but he is set to begin 2027 in Triple-A with a good chance of debuting at some point next summer.
Relievers
The Twins bullpen is looking closer to average now with Jeff Hoffman, Andrew Morris, Yoendrys Gomez, and Kody Funderburk all locked in for 2027 along with a handful of other solid arms. There is an intriguing group of relievers in the upper minors with clear concerns but impressive stuff that could thrust them into the Twins bullpen next season. Don’t forget about David Festa or Matt Canterino either!
It was an interesting season for longtime top prospect Marco Raya this year. After a rough start, he caught fire in May and made his MLB debut in June, but only threw 6 innings before an injury put him on the IL for two weeks. He came back and struggled a bit, but finished the season by running a 1.56 ERA with 25 strikeouts and 6 walks over his last 17.1 innings in Triple-A. His 5.32 season ERA is not pretty, but out of 276 pitchers with at least 50 innings at Triple-A, Raya ranked 16th in xFIP and 22nd in K-BB%. With a mid-90s fastball and a trio of devastating secondaries that generate whiffs against both righties and lefties, Marco Raya has the stuff to be an electric bullpen arm if he can put it all together.
A 2027 debut for 8th round pick Thomas Burns is very aggressive but it’s possible. There are significant concerns with his command and strike-throwing ability, but he joined the organization immediately having some of the best stuff in the entire system. He has an outlier fastball in the upper 90s with elite carry. His cutter and changeup are both big whiff pitches as well if he can command them. I don’t think a 2027 debut is likely for Thomas Burns, especially in the Twins organization, but he has legitimate closer potential if the Twins can get him to throw enough strikes. The hope is that he will move through the system very quickly.
C.J. Culpepper got middling results in Triple-A this year after making a move to the bullpen. As an east-west pitcher with limited whiff, Culpepper succeeds by generating lots of weak ground contact, similar to Kody Funderburk. He finished the season with a 4.71 ERA and 5.09 FIP in 57.1 Triple-A innings, striking out 58 and walking 34. While Culpepper can be an effective middle reliever for the Twins in 2027, we need to see some strike-throwing improvements to really make the groundballer profile work.
2025 Indy ball signing Ruddy Gomez has had a two-year stretch that we cannot ignore. His devastating slider has carried him all the way from rookie ball to Triple-A in two seasons, where he ran a 3.00 ERA and 2.99 FIP in Double-A this season, and looked pretty good in his short stint in St. Paul to finish the season. His slider has dominated at every level, and if Gomez can improve the shape on his mid-90s fastball, we are almost surely looking at a big league reliever and a 2027 debut.
The 2027 campaign of Alejandro Hidalgo is one that I am particularly interested in. Getting excited about a guy who holds a 6.75 ERA in Triple-A this season and a 5.80 ERA in his minor league career seems weird, but Hidalgo has posted elite strikeout numbers with respectable strike-throwing. Home runs have been a devastating issue, but he could be a couple minor tweaks away from being a big league reliever at just 23 years old.
Maybe There’s Something There?
I was ready to give up on Kala’i Rosario, who returned to Double-A for a third season this year and saw his strikeout rate spike up to 31% while his overall production dropped significantly from last year. Naturally, he found a spark in Triple-A at the end of August and finished the season by slashing .315/.322/.674 for a 146 wRC+ over his last 22 games. The plus power was on full display and he was making quality swing decisions while running a manageable 79% zone contact rate. He is playable in a corner outfield spot and has a little bit of speed. The projection is questionable, though, as he hits righties better than lefties and is a pull-happy hitter that doesn’t do any damage on the outer half of the plate. At his current state he will be taken advantage of in the majors, but at 24 years old with impressive raw power and a history of production, I won’t give up just yet.
After a huge 2025 campaign driven by immense batted ball luck, Gabriel Gonzalez came back down to Earth in 2026, running a 91 wRC+ in 114 games at Triple-A. He can hit for contact and has shown tangible improvement in his plate approach, but the lack of raw power and defensive value will make it tough for Gonzalez to find a role at the major league level.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 15: Shane Baz #34 of the Baltimore Orioles in action during the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 15, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images) | Getty Images
There are plenty of things the Orioles could have done differently to improve their record last season. They could have played better defense or struck out less. But there’s one simple thing that would have ensured more victories. They could have scored some runs when Shane Baz was on the mound.
Baltimore’s front office went out and got Shane Baz before the season. Baz was under contract with another team in the division, and the Rays did not exactly thrust him onto the trade block. Mike Elias identified Baz as a pitcher that he wanted in the 2026 rotation, and he overwhelmed the Rays with an attractive bunch of prospects.
Baltimore sent Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret, Austin Overn, and a competitive balance pick to the Rays in exchange for the former first round pick. Forret has since made his way back to the organization, while de Brun traveled to Tampa after arriving in Baltimore via compensation for the Bryan Baker trade.
Bodine vaulted up prospect lists after a strong 2026 campaign, and Overn currently sits inside Tampa Bay’s Top 10 according to MLB Pipeline. The Orioles sent Tyler Wells to the Rays to reacquire Forret, and a first round pick is a first round pick.
The Orioles, to their credit, did what a team should do after investing that much prospect capital to acquire one player. They signed Baz to a five-year extension worth $68 million dollars.
Baz went on to post a 6-15 record with the Orioles. Those numbers make the deal sound like a total disaster, but that was hardly the case. Baltimore provided Baz some of the worst run support of any pitcher in the majors last year.
Baz finished 2026 with a 4.11 ERA and 3.62 FIP while giving his new team a chance to win almost every night. Unfortunately, the team rarely took advantage of the opportunity. Baz kept his head up and said all the right things after several disappointing efforts, but the team rarely picked up their new teammate.
Mike Elias lauded Baz as a player with Cy Young potential at the time of the deal, but he clarified that the 27-year-old would need time to get to that point. Baz missed all of 2023 and a majority of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He posted a 4.87 ERA over 166.1 innings in 2025. The season marked the first time that the former top prospect had eclipsed 80 innings in his career.
Baz took a giant step forward with 180 innings over 31 starts. The Orioles may eventually regret parting with such a wealth of talent in exchange for Baz, but it’s difficult not to call his first season in Baltimore a success. The optics would be incredibly different if Baz delivered the same quality of production, but the Orioles were the team competing for a chance to go to the World Series right now.
Baz controlled what he could control, but he also found himself in odd situations. He was on the mound for the infamous “not out of the baseline” play, and he often struggled to strand runners after silly mistakes by Baltimore’s defense. Of the 92 runs he allowed in 2026, only 82 were earned.
The Orioles will look for Baz to take another step forward in 2027. Kyle Bradish earned a similar—albeit pricier—five-year extension, but Trevor Rogers is a free agent. Brandon Young will return after a surprising 2026, and the organization features several talented young pitching prospects, but the Birds will look to Bradish and Baz to lead this rotation in 2027 and beyond.
Baz took a comebacker off his elbow in a mid-September start against the Mets. He appeared to dodge any type of significant injury, but the Orioles shut him down for the final two weeks with the postseason fully out of reach. After delivering a full workload in 2026, Baz should enter next season without any type of innings restriction.
Baz’s 3.4 WAR in 2026 trailed only Pete Alonso, Rogers, and Gunnar Henderson, and there appears to be more meat on the bone. The lack of run support feels like an anomaly, which should free up Baz for more happy endings in 2027.
When the Cubs were eliminated from this year’s postseason, I decided I wanted another team to root for, just to remain invested in October baseball in 2026, in part because after this year’s World Series, we don’t know when we’re going to see Major League Baseball again.
For me, the choice was easy: The Cleveland Guardians. Let’s talk about the Guardians while we await their afternoon Game 3 against the Rays, which begins at 12 noon CT (game thread will post at 11:30 a.m. CT).
The reason I’ve picked the Guardians should be obvious — their 77-year World Series drought. As Cubs fans, we absolutely understand long droughts.
Guardians history parallels Cubs history in many ways, too. For one thing, the teams both won exactly two World Series before 1950.
From the beginning of their American League franchise in 1901, the Cleveland Indians were consistent contenders for much of that time, but won the World Series only twice, in 1920 and 1948. This despite having two of the greatest players of the pre-Live Ball Era on their team, Napoleon Lajoie and Tris Speaker. They never even won an AL pennant with Lajoie on the team, and it can be argued that their 1920 pennant was a bit of an accident because the White Sox, who were later learned to have thrown the 1919 World Series, did their best to do the same in the 1920 AL pennant race. You can read more about that here.
Cleveland defeated Brooklyn in the 1920 World Series, their first such title.
Then they went through a two-decade stretch of sort-of contending, finishing with 15 winning seasons between 1921 and 1940, but never winning a pennant. They led the AL through much of 1940 but the Tigers overtook them in September and won by one game.
The team muddled through much of the 1940s, finally breaking through and winning 97 games in 1948, defeating the Braves in the World Series. They appeared to have a pretty good team at that point. They won 90 or more games four of the next five years, but could not break past Yankees dominance until 1954, when they blazed through the regular season with a then-AL record 111 wins.
The Giants swept that Indians team in the World Series and after 1959, when they finished five games behind the White Sox, a long period of poor play began. (Does that sound familiar?) Apart from the strike-interrupted 1981 season, the Cleveland franchise would not finish closer than 11 games out of first place until 1995, when their good young core led by Manny Ramirez and Kenny Lofton went 100-44 and got back to the World Series, where they were dispatched four games to two by the Braves.
This version of the Indians was very good. Including 1995, they made the postseason six of the next seven years and got back to the World Series in 1997, where they lost in soul-crushing fashion. They led the Marlins in Game 7 2-1 with one out in the ninth when Miami tied the game on a sacrifice fly by… Craig Counsell. In the bottom of the 11th, the Marlins walked it off and the winning run was scored by… Craig Counsell.
Including this year, Cleveland, now the Guardians, has been in the postseason eight of the last 11 seasons. You obviously know what happened in 2016. That was joy for us and again, the crushing of souls for Cleveland fans.
This year’s Guardians have a “won’t quit” vibe around them, led by one of MLB’s most underappreciated superstars, José Ramírez (though it was his error that helped lead to three unearned runs for the Rays in ALCS Game 2). They’re fun to root for and with a 77-year drought on the line… I’m hoping they can end it this year.
Jul 6, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; New York Mets right fielder Carson Benge (3) catches the ball for an out against the Atlanta Braves during the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Meet the Mets
Luis Torrens, Carson Benge, and Nolan McLean were all named as Gold Glove finalists, and should any of them win, it would end a 12-year drought since a Met last won the award.
McLean, Benge, and A.J. Ewing all made an impression this season, but the next wave of prospects could be on the way.
Due to expected inclement weather in Cleveland, the start time for Game 3 of the ALCS was moved to 1:00 PM EDT, and Game 4 of NLCS was moved to 8:00 PM EDT.
KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 27: Kansas City Royals general manager J.J. Poicollo, Matt Quatraro (33), Bobby Witt Jr. (7) and Seth Lugo (67) pose with their Gold Glove awards for 2024 before an Opening Day MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals on March 27, 2025 at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The whole Royals infield are finalists for the Gold Glove award.
Perla Paredes, writes about three different Royals prospects that could have an impact in KC in 2027.
Angeibel Gomez’s OPS in the Dominican Summer League caught some attention.
We know we have to take Rookie-level Dominican Summer League stats with a grain of salt, but it’s hard not to get excited about Gomez, especially after seeing him holding his own at age 17 in the Arizona Fall League. Signed for $2.9 million in January, Gomez led qualified Royals prospects at any level in OPS, SLG (.652) and ISO (.292).
David Lesky wrote about what he would do if he was JJ Picollo for a day.
Matthew Swigonski of Kings of Kauffman ranked Bobby Witt Jr’s first five MLB seasons.
Kevin O’Brien, of Royals Keep, gives a recap of Royals Fall League action.
The Brewers came back to beat the Dodgers late last night.
Jake Bauers never gave up, and is now having a career year.
Jackson Chourio, who hit the first pitch of game 3, out of the park, made history doing so.
WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 10: Levi Wells #93 of the Baltimore Orioles throws a pitch against the Houston Astros during the second inningof a spring training game at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 10, 2026 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Braxton Bragg, Levi Wells, and Patrick Reilly all lost significant time to injuries in 2025, leaving questions about their development and big league potential. With all three eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter, Baltimore could have some decisions to make about protecting them on the 40-man roster, assuming the draft even takes place amid the ongoing labor uncertainty.
Bragg, an eighth-round selection out of Dallas Baptist University back in 2023, was turning quite a few heads back in 2025. He opened the year with 16.1 scoreless innings at High-A Aberdeen, which earned him a swift promotion to Double-A Chesapeake. While he faced stiffer competition there, it did little to slow him down. Over 42.2 innings there he struck out 59 and had a 2.32 ERA. He was named the Orioles pitcher of the month for May and seemed like a budding star.
Then, the injuries came. In early June, Bragg felt forearm discomfort. He took a 10-day IL stint and then returned before suffering further discomfort. It was announced in July that Bragg had undergone Tommy John surgery, which would cost him the rest of 2025 and all of the 2026 regular season. The latest is that he has returned to the field, playing for the Peoria Javelinas in the ongoing Arizona Fall League. So far he has thrown three scoreless innings this fall.
Wells also dealt with a significant injury this year. Selected in the fourth round of that 2023 draft by the O’s, Wells had been relatively fit until this past May, when he hit the IL with what was reported as “hip discomfort” and then became “core muscle surgery.” Clearly, it was serious as it kept him shelved for the remainder of the season and, unlike the other two mentioned here, he is not on an Arizona Fall League squad.
It’s a shame because Wells may have been on his way to a big league debut this year prior to the injury. He had pitched in five games for Triple-A Norfolk in 2025, and then began 2026 right back there. Over eight games he had a ho-hum 4.50 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 36 innings, but has an arsenal that seems like a fit in any big league bullpen. Instead, he spent most of the summer on the IL and may have to settle for a Baltimore debut sometime in 2027.
Reilly rounds out this injured crew. He was a fifth-round pick of the Pirates in the 2023 draft, but came to Baltimore via a relatively rare prospect-for-prospect swap at the 2024 deadline that sent utility-man Billy Cook the other way. The Vanderbilt product was promoted to Double-A following the trade, and put together a solid two months, compiling a 3.73 ERA, 38 strikeouts, and a .194 batting average against over the final 31.1 innings of the season. He returned to the level to begin 2025, where had a 1.86 ERA over three starts before he suffered the same injury as Bragg.
Reilly needed Tommy John surgery too, went on the IL at the end of April 2025, and finally got back on the field this past June. After rehabbing in the FCL and then High-A, he returned to Double-A on July 21. Across eight starts he tossed 39.2 innings, struck out 55, and had a 3.63 ERA. You can also find him on the Peoria roster this fall. He has allowed one run over three innings in the AZFL this year.
Prospect outlook
Bragg is probably still considered the highest upside prospect in this group. MLB Pipeline ranks him 22nd in the organization, while FanGraphs places him quite a bit higher at 10th. The excitement from FanGraphs seems to be based on their belief that he projects as a backend starter, while they think that Wells and Reilly end up in the bullpen. But they also say that if Bragg had stayed healthy and pitched well throughout 2025, then he “stood a good chance of moving on to [the FanGraphs’] Top 100.” Maybe that can still happen if he returns and once again shows off his sinker, slider, and splitter combo that hitters were flailing against to begin last year.
Wells is probably second of this group due to what should be a relatively straightforward path to a big league role if/when he is healthy. He already has some Triple-A experience under his belt, can hit 100 with his fastball, and also features useful breaking ball options in his curveball and slider. He lacks a changeup, and there are concerns against left-handed hitters. That could limit his ceiling to that of a reliever, but possibly a really good one. Pipeline ranks him 23rd in the Orioles organization, while FanGraphs has him 18th.
Reilly is more of a gamble. Pipeline does not have him listed among their “Top 30” Orioles prospects, and FanGraphs has him the lowest of these three at 20th. He’s described as a “high-octane arm” that features a fastball that sits 93-95 as a starter but can touch 98, which he pairs with a hard cutter and slider along with the occasional splitter. The ceiling for him is thought to be a “five-and-dive starter…More likely, he’ll work as a mid-to-high leverage reliever.”
Moving forward
Considering how much time they have all missed with injury recently, it’s tough to say where they sit in their development at this point. All three of these pitchers have been brought up as starters, but that could change sometime soon. They need to prove they are healthy, that their repertoire is intact, and that they can get hitters out at the upper levels.
Normally, the Orioles would have tough decisions coming with these pitchers. All three of them are Rule 5-eligible this winter, which means the team will need to decide sometime in mid-November whether they will add them to the 40-man roster and protect them, or leave them susceptible to being selected away. But there is a very real chance that the Rule 5 draft does not take place this year due to the ongoing CBA dispute between MLB and the MLBPA. The event was cancelled in 2021, during the last lockout. In that case, the Orioles would be at no risk of losing any of them, regardless of whether they end up on the 40-man roster or not.
Bragg and Reilly are yet to pitch above Double-A. Bragg has 42.2 innings at the level, which all came back in 2025. Reilly worked 9.2 innings before his injury in ‘25, and then came back to toss 39.2 innings there in the second half of this year. The duo is playing in the Fall League to catch up on some development time they may have missed out on. Depending on how things go, they have a chance to begin 2027 in Triple-A.
Wells has already worked 36 innings at Triple-A, and there is the chance that the team converts him to a relief role at some point. So his path to the bigs should be shorter from here. It will all be about when he gets healthy and gets back up to speed. Regardless, if he stays with the organization this winter, he is probably ticketed for a return to Norfolk, where he can build himself up to being a bullpen option in Baltimore sometime in 2027.
At the moment, with a Rule 5 draft unlikely to happen, it seems like all three players will return to the Orioles organization in 2027. And all three have the potential to contribute in Baltimore someday, but their health and progress next season will go a long way toward determining just how realistic that possibility is.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 14: Jackson Chourio #11 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a Home Run during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game three of the National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium on October 14, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Is this finally the year the Brewers exorcise their playoff demons and advance past the Dodgers on the Senior Circuit side of the bracket? Alongside LA, Milwaukee has been the class of the NL regular season for the last decade. However, they have never beaten their postseason final boss during this era, getting eliminated by the Dodgers in seven games in the instant classic 2018 NLCS before getting swept in the 2020 NL Wild Card Series and 2025 NLCS.
That finally looks set to change, the Brewers taking a commanding 3-0 lead in the series on a brilliant start from Robert Gasser and home runs from Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, and Garrett Mitchell. With one more win, they’ll not only avenge those losses, but also win their first pennant in 44 years, when Harvey’s Wallbangers led the 1982 Brewers to the AL flag. Only the Pirates and Mariners have waited longer for a World Series berth. Could this be the year at last for dreams of a first Brewers championship to truly ignite?
They have one more win to go. Here’s how they got to the doorstep.
NLCS Game 3
Milwaukee Brewers 5, Los Angeles Dodgers 2
(Milwaukee leads, 3-0)
There is no better start to the game as a visiting team than a leadoff home run to put the home starter and crowd immediately on the back foot. Chourio said “hold my beer” as he homered on the first pitch of Game 3, ambushing a center-cut four-seamer from Blake Snell and lining it oppo just over the wall in right-center to instantly deflate a raucous crowd at Chavez Ravine who had been desperate to energize their wounded Dodgers. It is already the third postseason leadoff home run in the young career of the Brewers’ star left fielder, Chourio the hero of the NLDS against the Padres with six RBIs in four games.
Gasser typifies a Milwaukee Brewers player — a gamer with plenty of talent but not a name a baseball fan outside of Wisconsin is likely to recognize. He was part of the 2022 deadline trade that sent Josh Hader to San Diego. He debuted in 2024 but missed most of that and the next season to Tommy John surgery. He spent the first month-and-a-half of 2026 at Triple-A but didn’t look back after a mid-May call-up, starting 20 games and posting a 5-5 record, 3.87 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 103 strikeouts and 1.5 fWAR in 109.1 innings.
With the Brewers unsettled on their postseason rotation plans, Gasser allowed one or fewer runs in his final four starts of the regular season to cement his starting role in the playoffs. The 27-year-old lefty held the Padres to a run on three hits in four innings of Game 4 of the NLDS as the Brewers punched their ticket to the next round. Against this backdrop of hitting his stride once the games really started to matter, Gasser pitched possibly the best start of his life last night.
He’s not going to blow you away with velocity, but the unique way he hides the ball until the last moment of his delivery let his mid-90s sinker play up in LA. The Dodgers had no answer for the pitch as Gasser was able to paint both sides of the plate, getting the ball by the dangerous hitters in their lineup as if they collectively were not ready to hit the fastball.
Gasser waltzed through five scoreless innings allowing just three hits and a walk, but cameras curiously spotted handshakes in the dugout between the fifth and sixth innings. Gasser hadn’t had to make a stressful pitch all game and seemed to have plenty in the tank at just 72 pitches, but trainers did appear to be tending to a blister on the ring finger of his pitching hand. Practically every button that Brewers manager Pat Murphy has pushed this season and postseason has worked, seeing the team pace MLB with 103 wins and easily brush aside the Padres in the NLDS before taking a 2-0 lead over the two-time reigning champions, but this one blew up in his face.
Whatever the case, Murphy called on Abner Uribe for the sixth inning and it backfired spectacularly. He walked Teoscar Hernández, Kyle Tucker, and Shohei Ohtani (batting a rare sixth amid his awful slump) to load the bases with one out. Despite a pair of relievers hot in the Milwaukee bullpen, Murphy allowed Uribe to face the struggling Will Smith — 1-for-23 in six games this postseason. Smith ambushed a first pitch sinker right down the pipe, the deep fly ball clanging halfway up the wall in left-center to plate a pair and give the Dodgers their first lead of the series, 2-1.
Murphy belatedly called on flame throwing lefty DL Hall to clean up Uribe’s mess, and he struck out Kiké Hernández and Tommy Edman to strand runners on second and third and limit the damage to the two runs.
Murphy was perhaps vindicated in lifting his starter earlier than it seemed necessary, because we witnessed the flip side of that debate two innings later. It is perhaps fitting that Snell was the starter opposite Gasser in this game —the Rays’ Kevin Cash memorably removed Snell in the sixth inning of Game 6 of the 2020 World Series against the Dodgers despite Snell having struck out nine and not allowed a run on just 73 pitches — Gasser removed with his pitch count at 72.
After the Chourio leadoff blast, Snell was untouchable for six innings, allowing one hit and one walk while striking out nine as his four-seamer had some extra juice en route to racking up a gaudy 46-percent whiff rate. Dave Roberts allowed his dominating starter to come back out for the seventh, and it is amazing how the tide turned in an instant. He issued a leadoff walk to Andrew Vaughn, but with two lefties due up in Bauers and Mitchell, Roberts stuck with his southpaw starter.
The fatigue was apparent against Bauers, Snell’s misses occurring over the heart of the plate instead of outside of the zone, and the Brewers’ regular season home run leader won the monumental 11-pitch battle by blasting a middle-middle full count four-seamer 412 feet to right to put the Brewers back on top, 3-2. Mitchell then jumped on a 1-0 mistake changeup right down the middle, going back-to-back with Bauers to almost the exact same spot of the ballpark.
It was the first time in Snell’s entire career that he had allowed back-to-back homers to lefties and just the second time that he’d ever allowed two lefty-hitter homers in the same game (let alone inning). He’d allowed one lefty-hitter homer since Juan Soto took him deep for the Yankees in June 2024 in San Francisco.
That fully sucked all of the air out of Dodger Stadium, and the team nor their fans could will the comeback. Milwaukee added a pair of valuable insurance runs in the eighth and ninth. Brice Turang and William Contreras reached in the eighth on consecutive one-out singles to put runners on the corners where a Justin Wrobleski wild pitch allowed Turang to score the Brewers’ fifth run. Rookie Cooper Pratt lined a one-out single in the ninth, stole second, and scored on a Joey Ortiz single to make it 6-2. Hall and closer Trevor Megill combined to pitch a scoreless final 3.2 innings to seal the win and put the Brewers on the brink of sweeping the champions of the last two seasons.
Game 4 is tomorrow with first pitch scheduled for 8:00 pm ET. Tyler Glasnow will look to keep the Dodgers’ season alive while Milwaukee has yet to name a starter. The Brewers now have four chances to clinch the series and advance to the Fall Classic, where they will look to win their first ever title as one of five teams to have never won a ring. No expansion team has waited longer. It may finally be the Brew Crew’s year.
WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 27: TJ Rumfield #7 of the Colorado Rockies fields the ball against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on August 27, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Meanwhile, although free agency for players will not officially begin until five days after the conclusion of the World Series, the rules are less strict for managers. This week has already seen a manager hired and another let go.
The Rockies, for their part, are not expected to see much movement among their coaching staff, but should any drastic shakeups happen elsewhere around the league, it’s possible the front office would look to swoop in to provide a landing spot for coaches that found themselves without a job.
That all being said, let’s get to the news!
Rockies News & Links
TJ Rumfield named a Gold Glove award finalist | Purple Row — Rawlings announced this seasons finalists for Gold Glove awards yesterday. TJ Rumfield was the Rockies lone player to make the cut as he was named a finalist for the National League first base award alongside Matt Olson and Ty France.
What a Successful Colorado Rockies Offseason Actually Looks Like | SI.com — Maddy Dickens comes to a familiar conclusion that the key to the Rockies offseason is addressing the teams lack of starting pitching. She offers up a couple of realistic free agent options for the front office to consider in Jordan Montgomery and Walker Buehler. Both should be within the team’s budget. The question is whether they’d like to come to Denver and how much help they would be if they did.
Early 2026-27 MLB Offseason Predictions on Free Agency, Trades and More | Bleacher Report — Hunter Goodman’s name came up continuously through the 2026 trade deadline. When the Rockies ultimately held onto him, it served only as a reprieve from those rumors not as an end to them as he remains under team control through 2029. Most recently, Zachary D. Rymer speculates that an offseason trade to the Tampa Bay Rays could make sense for both clubs.
Around Baseball
MLB makes an offer players might not refuse | Baseball Prospectus ($) — If you were still trying to parse out the motivations behind MLB’s latest proposal to the Player’s Association Marc Normandin is here for you. In the end, it all comes down to money and the expanded Division Series along with a shortened regular season, highlighted by exclusive singular Monday night games, which would mean more premium broadcast rights for the league to sell. While the proposal is presented as an offering to the players, make no mistake that it is a change the league itself actively wants to adopt as well.
Phillies name Don Mattingly as full-time manager, sign him to 2-year contract | The Athletic ($) — Just a week ago rumors surfaced that the Phillies had approached, and been rebuffed by, former Red Sox manager Alex Cora about their 2027 managerial opening. It would seem that after their first choice for the job off the board, the Phillies have pivoted to removing the interim tag from Don Mattingly. If Mattingly has any ill will about seeming to be the backup option again, it does not come across in this piece from Matt Gelb and Charlotte Varnes.
Joe Espada will not return as Astros manager | MLB Trade Rumors — In other managerial news, the Houston Astros have announced that they will not be renewing the contract of their manager Joe Espada. The Seattle Mariners have already interviewed Espada for their own managerial opening so it’s possible he will not need to wait long for his next opportunity. For the Astros, this completes what has felt like an inevitable sequence of events after general manager Dana Brown was let go in August.
So just how pissed off is Pat Murphy? | Fangraphs — Davvy Andrews uses an incredible amout of time, words, and pictures to follow the emotional rollercoaster that is managing a Major League playoff game. The piece correlates Milwaukee Brewer’s manager Pat Murphy’s expressions and mannerisms following essentially every key play of game two of the NLCS and assesses his anger level at each moment. Is this silly? Yes. Is it an incredible read? Absolutely.
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 5: Joshua Baez #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals is congratulated in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 5, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Coming sooner than you’d think, we’ll be voting on the top 20 prospects in the Cardinals’ system. That will be a welcome respite from the lockout that will surely be happening. In the spirit of that, I wanted to look at our very first top 20 to see how we did. I began this feature in 2023 and enough seasons have passed that we have a good idea of how well the voting stands the test of time. But it is also recent enough that a few players are still in the minor leagues. And just for good measure, I wanted to compare my rankings with the readers at large.
1. Jordan Walker (Both) There are going to be some picks that are truly out there and then there are going to be some picks that just about everyone who follows prospects agreed upon. This is the latter. The Cardinals rather dumbly had Walker make the Opening Day roster in 2023 and all things considered, he played better than reasonably expected. Not defensively of course. After two seasons in the wilderness, Walker picked up where he left off in 2026. He hasn’t quite justified his #1 ranking yet, but again everyone thought he was the #1 prospect. Hard to blame either of us.
2. Masyn Winn (Both)
If you were to re-rank the prospects according to performance, Winn would be the best prospect in the system this particular year. Winn hadn’t yet played in Memphis yet when we voted on these rankings (neither had Walker though). We didn’t know how his glove would translate even though the reports were very good. Gold Glove caliber and good is a mighty big difference. So far, so good on the rankings.
3. Tink Hence (Both)
Hence’s ranking was not based on much to be honest. He utterly annihilated Low A, striking out 41.5% of batters while walking just 7.7%. Things really didn’t start veering off the plan until the 2025 season. He ended up throwing 96 innings in 2023, making it to AA. He made 20 starts in AA in 2024 and was pretty dominant. That’s less innings than I think the Cardinals wanted, but it’s not a huge roadblock. But well he’s barely pitched the past two seasons. He turned 24 this past August, so this could still look like a good placement. It might not be for the Cardinals though.
4. Gordon Graceffo (Both)
Similar to Hence, Graceffo was going according to plan, although unlike Hence, it started veering off course in 2023 for Graceffo. Graceffo made it to Springfield in 2022, but was mediocre, but he was mediocre after 8 dominant starts in High A following his draft year. He ended up having some injury problems, and a very big fastball problem that ultimately forced his move to the bullpen. If he can craft a good reliever career out of his arsenal, this isn’t a bad outcome for the #4 prospect in the system.
5-6. Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera (Community)
5-6. Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson (Me)
I don’t think anybody loses in this comparison. Herrera has been better so far, but Burleson is coming off a much better season. The defensive part of both of their games have changed rather wildly since this ranking, because that was a large reason for Herrera being higher for me. I probably still choose Herrera because he is younger, but I said in my post that Herrera had more potential because he was a catcher and Burleson was a corner outfielder. But I called them pretty similar prospects. Burleson seems a bit more stable because he has a known defensive home and appears to have the better bat going forward, so I’ll give it to you guys.
7. Cooper Hjerpe (Community)
7. Matthew Liberatore (Me)
Man I would have looked a lot smarter if I did this a year ago. This is a very big to be determined still though. Liberatore seems headed to the bullpen sooner rather than later and my pessimism on Hjerpe is mostly connected to my belief that he’s headed to the pen. But Hjerpe as a reliever has a much higher upside than Liberatore. Liberatore did have an effective year out of the pen, so I think the odds lean in the community’s favor, but the race is not over.
8. Matthew Liberatore (Community)
8. Leonardo Bernal (Me)
I am however feeling VERY good about Bernal’s placement on my list. My words at the time: “I can’t stop harping on the fact that Bernal was 18-years-old in Low A and hit for a 117 wRC+. Both Yadier Molina and Ivan Herrera were 19-years-old in Low A. Nothing about his performance has any alarm bells either.” He did end up repeating Low A, and I’m not totally convinced I rank him 8th if I had known that he would spend all of 2023 in Low A, but that does not matter! I was ahead of the game on this one.
9. Michael McGreevy (Community)
9. Connor Thomas (Me)
The prospect game will humble you fast, good lord. I really bought into Thomas thanks to the reported cutter he had developed. I can’t believe it, but I cited spring training stats to support my ranking. Oh Gabe. Less egregiously, he had a very good ZiPS projection, which I’m choosing to believe was a large reason for this ranking. So Dan Szymborski, it’s really your fault that he is ranking 9th.
10. Moises Gomez (Community)
10. Michael McGreevy(Me)
Oh thank god, I had McGreevy right after Thomas at least. And…. you guys wanted to upstage my bad pick with a bad pick of your own? Very appreciated. Spoiler alert: Moises Gomez didn’t make my top 20. Connor Thomas makes your top 20. I think I win in the battle of bad picks, cause I didn’t buy into Gomez for even a second.
11. Joshua Baez (Community)
11. Cooper Hjerpe (Me)
Ignore that Baez falls off both of our lists until this most recent top 20 ranking, you guys do get some brownie points for having Baez slightly higher. Considering I think Hjerpe is a probable reliever and not only that we are three years removed from this top 20 ranking, I think 11th is a perfectly defensible placement to be honest. I stand by that one.
12. Leonardo Bernal (Community)
12. Jonathan Mejia (Me)
In my defense, I did bunch together Baez and Mejia. I really wish I would have just listed Baez first, but unfortunately that pesky position was the difference maker. Mejia (at the time) played SS, Baez was likely headed to a corner outfield spot. Also Baez is two years older than Mejia. Things really didn’t go Mejia’s way moving forward, but I feel like two years younger at SS and at the same level – I would rank them in this order again today! At least Bernal is here to make me look smarter.
13. Jonathan Mejia (Community)
13. Joshua Beaz (Me)
See, you guys had the order right, but we basically thought the same thing about Baez and Mejia!
14. Jimmy Crooks III
14. Connor Thomas
After a couple of picks that make me look dumb, the #14 pick is perfectly calibrated to make me look smart. Look, I was not alone on Thomas! Yes, I had him ranked much too high, but the community bought into the cutter too a little bit! And I’m early on Jimmy Crooks! Yes! There are a few players that I am “early” on who then break out, the community ends up ranking them higher than me, and then I have a reputation for hating on that player. There’s another one coming soon. Let the record show though that I had Crooks ranked higher than you all at first.
15. Won-Bin Cho (Community)
15. Brycen Mautz (Me)
I do not rank Cho on my list. He had only played in the complex league at this point. Had I known that he would taken an additional four seasons to make it to Springfield, I still wouldn’t have put him on my list. But retroactively, he looks like he may be a good pick. Here’s hoping. I’m pretty satisfied with Mautz here. Especially with the state of the system at the time, this is pretty clearly in reliever territory.
16. Jimmy Crooks (Community)
16. Ian Bedell (Me)
I have a very good defense of my pick. I went to Mizzou. This was an extremely biased pick. He is also a very good example of how much worse the system was in 2023, because he would never have made my list within a couple years. The top 15 players in this system are top 20 quality and in future seasons, there’d be like 30 players who I wanted to squeeze into a top 20. I simply ran out of players and went to a player from my alma mater.
17. Brycen Mautz (Community)
17. Victor Scott II (Me)
This is the player I was referring to in the Crooks section. I was early on Victor Scott. And then I was completely confused when he popped up on top 100 lists and #3 on the VEB list. Which to defend VEB, I think he was #3 here first. But yeah I made no secret that I thought he was too high. And then I sort of got known as a Scott hater. But I was early on the Victor Scott train! He was not ranked on the community list. Unfortunately 17th is about right in a weak system for Victor Scott’s career to date. So I guess I nailed it.
18. Guillermo Zuñiga (Community)
18. Kyle Leahy (Me)
I won’t give you guys any grief for Zuniga, mostly because he’s 19th for me. BUT HOW ABOUT THAT KYLE LEAHY PICK?! Boy, the system was…. real bad in 2023, because I am looking at his 2023 stats and I do not know how I talked myself into him. He had a 6.26 ERA in Memphis. He also walked 5 guys to 2 strikeouts in 1.2 IP in the majors. So special shoutout to BurlyBird (once known as LawBird), because he might be 90% of why I selected him as the #18 prospect.
19. Inohan Panigua (Community)
19. Guillermo Zuñiga (Me)
Both pitchers are still in baseball. Panigua was released by the Cardinals in the middle of 2025. He pitched in 16 games for the Detroit Tigers’ High A team and considering he was 26 the past season, he appeared to be signed entirely for depth and no other reason. Zuñiga actually made the major leagues in 2026. He’s bounced around since Cardinals let him go after the 2023 season. First it was the Angels in 2024, where he split his time between AAA and the majors. He spent time in both the Mariners and Phillies systems in 2025, but never made the majors. And this past season, he was with the Mets, but only threw 1 major league inning.
20. Reiner Lopez (Community)
20. Austin Love (Me)
Well four years later, and Lopez has barely pitched. He spent 2023 injured, and then was very bad in the DSL in 2024. In 2025, he was better, although entirely in relief and 19-years-old. He didn’t pitch in the 2026 season. Love was derailed two starts into his 2023 season with Tommy John. When he returned in 2025, he was 26 and in relief. He wasn’t very good in Memphis after finally getting a promotion, so I’m not sure he’s a Cardinal in 2027.
Well that was an interesting exercise! At the very least, it’s proof that players can rise from the dead. If you have a pet prospect who is coming off a down season or multiple down seasons, I refer you to Joshua Baez or maybe Won-Bin Cho, and while he immediately lost his prospect status after 2023, I think Jordan Walker works as a symbol of hope too. I’m mostly startled by how bad this system was, because it is a lot of teenagers far away or surefire relievers (even at the time). I feel like we won’t be ranking any pitchers we know are relievers on the top 20 in a few months.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 13: Steven Kwan #38 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates after hitting a single against the Tampa Bay Rays during the seventh inning in game two of the American League Championship Series at Tropicana Field on October 13, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The annual Rawlings Gold Glove Nominees were announced yesterday. Two Guardians were nominated for their respective positions.
Tanner Bibee received a nomination for AL Pitcher.
The full list of finalist for both the AL and NL can be found here.
As the Gold Glove nominations kick off the MLB award season, the MLBPA announced their player chosen nominations as well. Parker Messick was nominated for AL Outstanding Rookie alongside two of his fellow AL Central Rookies. The full list of MLBPA Players Choice Finalists can be found here.
Congratulations to the AL & NL Outstanding Rookie Players Choice Awards Finalists!
AL 🔷 Kevin McGonigle 🔷 Parker Messick 🔷Munetaka Murakami
Much to everyone’s dismay, the game time for today’s ALCS Game 3 had to be moved up to 1PM today from the original 8PM start time. It is unclear if tomorrow’s Game 4 will also be affected by the forecasted precipitation. Unfortunately this means that a lot of people who were previously able to attend the game likely can not attend. Here’s to hoping that the impacted attendance doesn’t bring a negative atmosphere to the ballpark. If you are going to the game, look forward to a first pitch from Cleveland Cavaliers star Donovan Mitchell, another well designed rally towel, and hopefully another masterclass day game start from starter Gavin Williams.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 24: Tyler Glasnow #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers to the plate against the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium on September 24, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Dodgers are one loss away from getting swept in the postseason for the first time since the 2023 NLDS against the Diamondbacks. No matter how you want to slice it, they’ve looked inferior in every facet of the game in this series, from situational hitting to defense, bullpen work, and so on—now it’ll be up to Tyler Glasnow to at the very least delay what appears to be an unavoidable postseason exit for the reigning back-to-back champs.
Although the Brewers have yet to formally announce a starter, all signs point towards Dustin May taking the ball in Game 4 of this series—it might be with an opener, or it might be with him as a starter; either way, the bulk innings role will belong to the former Dodger.
When it comes to lineup decisions, Max Muncy figures to regain a starting role at third base, and you have to wonder if Will Smith remains in the seventh spot—the Dodger catcher was responsible for the only big hit the home team had in a Game 3 loss. Speaking of hitters who moved down in the order, although it amounted to very little, Shohei Ohtani reached safely in three of his four plate appearances in a 6-2 defeat.
Neither Evan Phillips nor Roki Sasaki had especially lengthy appearances off the bullpen, so apart from Justin Wrobleski, there’ll be no one else unavailable in the bullpen for Game 4. With nothing to lose and following the seventh-inning debacle of leaving Blake Snell in too long, expect potential aggressive calls to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble for Glasnow.
CLEVELAND, OH - SEPTEMBER 16: First base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. #15 of the Cleveland Indians celebrates with Yandy Diaz #36 after Diaz hit an RBI single during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field on September 16, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays dropped the first game of the American League Championship Series to the Boston Red Sox. The offense couldn’t muster anything against Daisuke Matsuzaka and the team suffered a 2-0 shutout.
The next day, the bats woke up and the two teams engaged in a forgotten classic with Tampa Bay coming out on top thanks to a BJ Upton sacrifice fly and the blazing speed of Fernando Perez.
After two games, the series was split and the Rays lost their home field advantage.
It didn’t matter as the Rays decimated the Red Sox in games three and four and were a few outs from winning game five. They eventually took the series in seven games.
The two games couldn’t not have been more different from the current ALCS but the stage remains the same as the Rays head from the comfy confines of Tropicana Field and head up to Ohio where the weather will be a factor. Bad weather in the postseason quickly brings back painful memories of the 2008 World Series, but MLB is attempting to be proactive during the ALCS as they have already moved up the first pitch for Game 3 to 1:00pm.
Currently, the forecast for the Cleveland area shows to be an overcast cool today with the rain not expected to develop until later in the night, thus allowing the two teams ample time to complete the game.
Tampa Bay will have a tough task ahead of them as 27-year old Gavin Williams take the mound. The four-year veteran of the Guardians staff has been solid throughout his career but broke out during the 2026 campaign with a newfound ability to generate strikeouts. Entering the season, the former 2021 first round pick Williams had a 24.1 K% over 325.2 IP. Williams soared to new heights over 184.1 IP in 2026 as he struck out 33.2% of opposing hitters. Gavin Williams had the highest BB% of qualifying starting pitchers 2025 (11.8%) but he managed to drop that to 8.2% in 2026 wihich is in the middle of the pack. Thanks to his high strikeout totals and improvement in command, Williams ranked 3rd among starting pitchers in K-BB%.
Overall for the 2026 season, Williams finished with a 3.76 ERA | 3.47 FIP with the aforementioned 33.2 K% & 8.2 BB% over 184.1 IP.
There will be an immovable object versus unstoppable force energy going as Williams is among the best in baseball in getting whiffs. Among 178 pitchers with at least 80 IP in 2026, Williams had the 4th lowest contact% with hitters only connecting 69.3% of the time. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays as a whole were elite at making contact, easily leading the MLB with a 18.3 contact%.
Williams has already made three appearances this postseason, pitching in three games of the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox. He carved through the South Side hitters with ease, striking out 52.2% of the opposing hitters over 11.2 IP. Williams was an integral to Cleveland’s game five victory as he hurled 5.2 shutout innings, while allowing just one hit, walking two, and striking out 12.
Going to the mound for the Rays will be Griffin Jax, making his first start since September 26th when he pitched three innings against the Philadelphia Phillies during the final weekend of the regular season.
The former reliever turner starter has shown flashes of brilliance during his outings this season but has also been infuriatingly inconsistent. Over 34 appearances – 23 starts – Jax has compiled a 3.53 ERA | 3.76 FIP with a 25.3 K% & and 7.6 BB% over 112.1 IP. Jax’s most recent outing game during game three of the ALDS against the New York Yankees where he allowed a run on one hit, while he struck out four over two innings pitched.
The Rays have managed to win four of their five games this postseason, despite an overall lackluster showing from their offense. The team has averaged just over three runs a game and currently opposing pitching staffs have a 2.14 ERA against them. Yandy Diaz is currently hitting just .238 over 22 PA while Jonathan Aranda is hitting .222 over his 21 PA. As a whole, the team is hitting .215/.271/329 during the playoffs.
A bright sign is the team’s K% is roughly the same as the regular season (18.6% postseason compared to 18.8% regular season). The Rays BABIP luck from the regular season has failed to transfer to October thus far as the team maintained a .296 BABIP over the 162 schedule to a lowly .246 over their 5 playoff games.
Just letting you know I came across two new articles about the outfield positioning experiment. The first one is a good, thorough article with a lot of interesting info, and it also led me to the following item: The author of the second article noticed something weird happening on the field, asked questions and even went onto the field after the game and tested it. Cool article, and probably has the best way to approach this change for now.
I appreciate your reading.
*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.
The Change MLB is Considering That Would (potentially) Damage Baseball, Part 2:
Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): Maybe Tarik Skubal to the Cubs Isn’t ENTIRELY Out of the Question? “The Cubs SHOULD be involved on Skubal, given how obviously he fits their needs. I could argue there’s no single team in baseball more improved by adding Skubal than the Cubs.”
Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): 5 Impending Free Agents Cubs Fans Should Watch Closely During Championship Series. “The Cubs have been left with their noses pressed to the window during the League Championship Series round for nine straight seasons. There’s plenty to see there, at least, for a team that knows a big shopping spree lies ahead.”
Michael Cerami (Bleacher Nation): The Top 7 Cubs Free Agents to Target for 2027. “Go nuts, Tom and Jed. If you don’t, we’ll just be in the same position (or worse) again next year.”
Michael Cerami (Bleacher Nation): The Top 17 Cubs Trade Targets for 2027. “Although the 2027 Chicago Cubs will this offseason, it is absolutely not time to let off the gas.”
Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): The Cubs Have Most of the Pieces of a Good 2027 Bullpen On Hand. “There’s so much the Cubs have to accomplish this offseason that it’s tempting to think they’re starting from scratch, outside their key, high-dollar position players. They do have the bones of a better bullpen on the roster, though.”
Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): Our Expectations for Pitcher Command Are Probably Too High. “We think of these things as in competition with each other, but a lot of times, analytics merely confirms what a player’s gut was telling him anyway!”
Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): Matt Shaw, Pedro Ramírez and the Cubs’ Shaky 2027 Outfield Plans. “The Cubs will have to fill at least one of their corner outfield spots from within next season. They have two young, controllable players with prospect pedigree in position to take the job, but it’s not clear that either can handle it.”
Randy Holt (North Side Baseball): Did Miguel Amaya Do Enough in 2026 to Be Cubs’ Main Catcher in 2027? “Miguel Amaya was above-average at the plate for a second straight year and roughly average behind the plate. Did he do enough in 2026 to get a shot at the No. 1 gig next spring?”
Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): The Cubs Need to Find the Next Carson Kelly, But This Winter, That Player Doesn’t Exist. “From the moment the Cubs agreed to signed Carson Kelly in December 2024, it was fairly clear that they’d found the perfect fit. Now, Kelly is an impending free agent, but re-upping with him isn’t the right move. They need this winter’s Carson Kelly. Good luck with that.”
Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): Why the Ideal Bat Path is the Ideal Bat Path. “I really loved this visualization of a good bat path from Eric Kozak, the Hitting Coordinator at Driveline.”
(The following article was linked in the one above. I don’t believe I caught it at the time, so I’m linking it separately just in case.)
Born and raised in Mississippi, Eddie Cotton Jr. is a modern torchbearer of the blues, blending soulful vocals, masterful guitar work, and deep-rooted tradition. His passion for music was sparked in the church, where his father was a preacher, and it was there that he honed his signature style—one that seamlessly fuses gospel influences with the raw energy of the blues. Cotton’s journey into the blues world was shaped by the legends who came before him, including B.B. King, Albert King, and Buddy Guy. His breakout moment came in 2015 when he won the prestigious International Blues Challenge, cementing his place among contemporary blues greats.
Cotton delivers a sound that is both fresh and timeless, filled with electrifying guitar riffs, heartfelt storytelling, and a groove that keeps audiences coming back for more. Whether performing on festival stages or in intimate venues, his music resonates with both seasoned blues lovers and new listeners alike. Eddie Cotton Jr. isn’t just playing the blues—he’s living it, breathing new life into a genre that remains as powerful as ever.
Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 13: Chase Burns #26 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on September 13, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In part 1 of this series, I looked at the past 30 years or so of teams and what we might generally expect based on little more than knowing how good a team’s best two players. Today, in part 2, we’ll pick up with a question that wonders if it should matter that De La Cruz and Burns were paid so little, relative to the overall team payroll.
Question #5: What does the percentage of payroll represented by a team’s top two players tell us about their win expectancy?
To answer this question, I first narrowed the set of teams to include. In short, I pulled only those teams from the past 30 years for which both their top position player and top pitcher ended the year somewhere between 4.5 and 6.5 WAR. This is meant to give an approximate range that we can suitably compare against the performance of Elly De La Cruz and Chase Burns. There are 129 such teams in this data set and while the range of wins from these teams spanned from 62 to 107, we can still see a general trend line within this specific subset:
Incidentally, there were five teams with such a profile in 2026 (Reds, Braves, Guardians, Dodgers, and Rays). Four of them won their respective division.
The relationship is not terribly strong, however, and I posited that the variance within this group could be better explained by how much of a team’s payroll is assigned to those two players.
A quick data note here to say that historical team payroll data is probably not the most reliable information in the baseball universe. Sites that do track payroll, most notably Spotrac, don’t include data that goes back as far as 1996. I was able to find payroll data that stretches back that far from The Baseball Cube, and I was reasonably satisfied that the payroll data is directionally accurate, if not perfectly so.
Nonetheless, data does exist and I used it to create a new point of comparison: For the 129 teams graphed above, how do team wins compare against the proportion of payroll paid to just the top position player and top pitcher?
The answer: nothing.
Within this data range, the amount paid to the top hitter and top pitcher explains none of the variance in wins.
In 2017, the Arizona Diamondbacks operated with a payroll of a little over $90M. They paid Paul Goldschmidt $8.75M and received 6.1 WAR in return. They paid Zack Greinke $31M and received 5.8 WAR in return. Basically 12 WAR for 44% of the team’s payroll. The team won 93 games.
In 2001, the Houston Astros operated with a payroll of a little over $60M (coincidentally, both teams’ payrolls were right around half of the highest team payroll from those respective seasons). Their best players were Lance Berkman (6.5 WAR) and Wade Miller (5.3 WAR), who the team paid $305K and $241K, respectively. Basically 12 WAR for less than 1% of the team’s payroll. The team won 93 games.
These two examples are emblematic of the overall data. Moreover, when I look at different ways to measure payroll, I see only marginal improvements to the predictability of win totals. Here, for example, are those 129 teams graphed so as to compare team wins to how close each team’s payroll was to the highest in the league:
Yeah, it’s better to be a high payroll team than not…but you won’t make a ton of money betting strictly on that info.
So, then: if the payroll attributed to the best two players is not a predictor of success, what categories might make sense to view the 2026 Reds through? And what historical teams had similar situations to what the Reds had with Elly and Chase and what might we learn from their examples?
Here are seven categories that we should examine these teams through, starting with the 2026 Reds:
Injuries:
Hunter Greene pitched just five games in 2026 due to assorted arm troubles. While he has yet to appear in more than 26 games in a season, Greene contributed 4.2 WAR in 2025 and 6 WAR in 2024.
Nick Lodolo had blister issues at the beginning of the season, limiting him to 20 starts and 103 innings for the year. He was coming off a 4.7 WAR, 131 ERA+ season, but managed just 1.1 WAR and 83 ERA+ in 2026. Obviously, it’s tough to know how much of the sharp decline is injury related.
Closer Emilio Pagan missed most of May and all of June. His 2026 has been serviceable, (1.2 WAR, 119 ERA+), but is a downgrade from 2025 (1.9 WAR, 152 ERA+).
Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes missed more than 40 games from May to July. He was barely above replacement level in his Reds tenure in 2025 and has been below replacement in 2026. It would be a stretch to suggest that Hayes’s injury has hurt the team.
Utility player Spencer Steer missed the final two-plus months of the season. He ended the year with 0.2 WAR.
Summary: Greene was a huge loss, clearly. The timing of his March elbow surgery precluded any robust contingency moves by the team, to the extent that they would have pursued one. That injury, plus Lodolo, put a strain on the pitching staff throughout the year. In general, the team was not especially cursed with bad injury luck, although the pitching was certainly impacted.
Dead Weight:
Jeimer Candelario, released midway through the 2025 season, still made up 10% of the Reds payroll in 2026.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
Elly De La Cruz was entering his 3rd full time season in 2026 and posted WAR totals of 5.2 in 2024 and 3.6 in 2025. He definitely exceeded expectations in 2026 but his season was not outside a reasonable projection range.
Chase Burns was a prospect with a high pedigree and he pitched 43 innings at the big league level in 2025 after dominating at the AA and AAA levels. It’s not like no one saw him coming, but a 5 WAR season would have been deemed unlikely by all but the most supportive of relatives.
Position Player Depth:
The Reds were disastrous at 2B, 3B, and all three OF positions. Matt McLain has been a tantalizing but ultimately disappointing second baseman since a shoulder injury in 2024. Ke’Bryan Hayes is widely seen as the worst every day player in baseball. An assortment of flotsam and jetsam in the outfield combined to be 29th out of 30th in terms of Wins Above Average.
First baseman Sal Stewart has had an excellent counting stat season, but doesn’t register well in the WAR category. He’s young and has a good hitting profile though.
The Reds were not above average at any position but shortstop.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
Other than Burns, no starter had an ERA+ above 90. Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer both fell short of expectations, with Singer bordering on unpitchable.
Hunter Greene’s injury-plagued year forced Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson into more innings than would have been normally expected. Both were sub-replacement level.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
A below average outfit overall, the Reds had some OK-to-decent pieces to rely on (Pagan, Brock Burke, Tejay Antone, Julian Garcia), but nearly all other arms in the pen were flat out bad.
The bullpen inefficacy was compounded by the lack of quality arms in the rotation. The bullpen threw more innings than average relative to the rest of MLB.
Did the 2026 Reds fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Elly De La Cruz and Chase Burns?
We’ll come back to this one. In part 3, we’ll look at some five historical teams which had similar top hitter/pitcher combinations and payroll impacts as the 2026 Reds and will wrap up with some final thoughts and conclusions.
