PHOENIX, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 21: Corbin Carroll #7 of the Arizona Diamondbacks bats during the eighth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field on September 21, 2025 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Phillies 9-2. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Well, this sucks. News out of Salt River Fields this morning, that Corbin Carroll suffered a broken hamate bone in his right hand, during live batting practice. This is going to cause him to miss significant time in spring training, and almost certainly on into the regular season. We do not know yet how bad the injury is, but in general it would be an 8-10 week recovery time, which would definitely be the first couple of weeks of regular season games, at the very least. But hands are tricky things, and there’s no guarantee that he will be back to full strength and capacity at the end of that time.
The D-backs were already thin in the outfield, after the trades of Jake McCarthy and Blaze Alexander, and the ongoing injury of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. That leaves just Jorge Barrosa and Alek Thomas the only healthy outfielders on the 40-man roster. The Ryan Waldschmidt era might end up arriving sooner than we would have liked…
Baseball: World Series: Rear view of Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw (22) in action, pitching vs Houston Astros at Dodger Stadium. Game 1. Los Angeles, CA 10/24/2017 CREDIT: John W. McDonough (Photo by John W. McDonough /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X161490 TK1 )
The first great team from the Andrew Friedman era came within one game of reaching the ultimate goal despite all of the shenanigans, malfeasances, and such they had to deal with during the 2017 World Series. We aren’t here to dwell on the what-ifs; there’s been plenty of that for far too long. We’re here to remember a specific game that gets lost in the weeds of all that happened in that Fall Classic—one that, had Kenley Jansen completed the save, had Yu Darvish not completely imploded in Game 7, had one of many things gone differently, would be lauded to this day. Before all that transpired in this series, Clayton Kershaw was magnificent in Game 1, unhittable, his pristine great self in leading the Dodgers to a narrow victory over the Astros.
Before addressing that specific game, perhaps it’s worth, with the benefit of hindsight, pondering if 2017 was in fact, the last great chance for Kershaw to dramatically flip the script on the narrative of his postseason woes. Kershaw handled his decline with as much grace and adaptability as any superstar could ever hope for. Even in the twilight years of his career, the left-hander found ways to be significantly above average while also being a shell of his former self. By the time that first championship came around, Kershaw was still superb, but Walker Buehler was the fear-inducing presence amongst starters on that team. The performances throughout that extended postseason were great, but it was no longer truly his team; it was more of him being a part of it. Sure, the individualization of teams is an overplayed and quite tiresome phenomenon, but that doesn’t mean none of these points aren’t true.
If we account for the painful memories of 2019 and that in 2018, the Dodgers had a mountain to climb against a historically good Boston Red Sox team, that 2017 squad, still with Kershaw as its unquestionable ace, represented the last chance for this future Hall of Famer to change the narrative, and for a while, it looked like he’d do it. While even in 2017, one could argue he had already taken a small step back from his dominant era between 2011 and 2014, Kershaw was still inarguably amongst the game’s best, even if he couldn’t sit at 95 mph consistently.
After a pedestrian showing in Game 1 of the NLDS in 2017, one that still saw Kershaw earn the win over the Diamondbacks, the left-hander was terrific in helping the Dodgers win the NL pennant. The Dodgers won all three of Kershaw’s starts in the NLDS and NLCS, including a performance of six one-run innings to help clinch the NL pennant in Wrigley. Kershaw on one side, Justin Verlander on the other — on top of many other narratives, that World Series featured two of the great pitchers of the 21st century looking to put past postseason woes behind them in search of that elusive first championship.
Unfortunately, the schedules weren’t lined up as Houston went to the wire to beat the Yankees in the ALCS, so Kershaw had to face Dallas Keuchel in Game 1 of that World Series—the left-hander delivered in yet another game that the Dodgers’ offense didn’t give him a whole lot of support, scoring only three runs.
Facing a righty-heavy lineup with the likes of Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer, and José Altuve, all while possessing the ability to actually surprise them with his patented down-and-in slider, Kershaw gave no quarter in a masterful showing of seven one-run innings to earn his first World Series win.
Springer, in particular, who would go on to torch the Dodgers in that series, gave no signs of what was to come, as he struck out all three times against Kershaw and then one more against Kenley Jansen just for good measure.
The one time the Dodgers’ starter might’ve been slightly rattled, following giving up a solo shot to Alex Bregman, he punched out the side in order, retiring Altuve, Correa, and Gurriel.
And since the other two hits Kershaw allowed were both singles, when he left the mound after seven innings of work, the Astros hadn’t had a single at-bat with a runner in scoring position. Whatever happened after this game, one could not ask anything more out of even the very best in these circumstances against such a talented opponent.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 28: Spencer Schwellenbach #56 of the Atlanta Braves pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Truist Park on June 28, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Brett Davis/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Phillies pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater today, effectively ending one of the dreariest off-seasons since team president Dave Dombrowski took over as head of baseball operations prior to the 2021 season.
Yes, he re-signed Kyle Schwarber, far-and-away the franchise’s primary goal over the winter, added free agent reliever Brad Keller to set up closer Jhoan Duran, brought back J.T. Realmuto to guide the pitching staff behind the dish and inked outfielder Adolis Garcia to a one-year deal. Nick Castellanos will soon be gone (we think!), Matt Strahm is in Kansas City, and Harrison Bader’s fun run in Philly ended.
Much has been made about what the Phillies didn’t do this off-season. Despite a desire to change up the team’s mix of players, most of the everyday lineup returns in 2026. Infielder Bo Bichette was stolen away from them by a Mets team that has re-made their roster in a way that some Phils fans with Dombrowski had done, and most of the same players that have frustrated over the last few seasons are back to give things another go.
It remains to be seen whether Dombrowski’s decisions were wise. Six weeks of spring training and 162 games over six months of regular season baseball await. However you feel about the ‘26 Phillies as the mitts start poppin’ down in Clearwater, their spring is off to a much better start than their two top rivals in the NL East.
For Atlanta, it’s a continuation of a slew of injuries that have derailed their chances of competing for a World Series each of the last two years.
This marks the second straight year in which Schwellenbach was placed on the 60-day IL for elbow inflammation at the beginning of the season. He eventually made 17 starts and posted a 3.09 ERA over 110.2 innings last year, a solid finish to his second big league season, and he’s always been trouble for the Phillies. In five career regular season starts, he’s 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA in 31.1 innings against Philadelphia. His absence once again leaves the Braves with a lineup full of household names and serious questions about stability and durability.
Chris Sale will be the likely Opening Day starter after yet another brilliant season with the Braves, but at 37 years old, does he have another All Star campaign in him? Spencer Strider, who missed all of 2024 with a torn ACL, returned to post a 4.45 ERA in 23 starts last year. Once the undisputed best starter in the National League, he is a major question mark as the ‘26 season begins. Reynaldo Lopez was signed as a free agent prior to last year but was injured during his first start with Atlanta. What will he bring to the table? And with Schwellenbach out, Grant Holmes (3.99 ERA in 115 innings) and Bryce Elder (5.30 ERA, 156.1 IP) fill out the rest of a suddenly suspect Atlanta rotation.
For all the question marks Phillies fans have about their rotation, the Braves appear to have even more.
As for Lindor, Mets GM David Stearns is optimistic his star shortstop will be ready for Opening Day, even if surgery is required.
Francisco Lindor will be evaluated for a stress reaction in his left hamate bone, David Stearns said. Surgery is possible and would include a six-week recovery. Stearns said he’s confident Lindor could be ready for opening day if he undergoes the surgery.
Lindor, 32, has been remarkably durable during his Mets’ career, with 160+ games played in three of the last four seasons, and 152 games in 2024. With Juan Soto, Bichette, Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien in the fold, New York’s lineup is well-suited to suffer a Lindor injury for a short amount of time. Still, it is never good for a star player to begin the season with surgery on a bone in their hand.
Before Phillies fans celebrate too much, there are a number of open questions regarding their roster as camp begins, too. How long after Opening Day will Zack Wheeler begin his 2026 season? Was Aaron Nola’s disastrous 2025 season a fluke or a trend? Will Andrew Painter make up for the loss of Ranger Suarez? Will the Phillies’ outfield be better on the field than they appear to be on paper now? Will Bryce Harper put together an All Star season? Who will provide power and production in the middle of the order?
All three teams in the National League East are dealing with some significant uncertainty as spring training begins.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JULY 29: Jose A. Ferrer #47 of the Washington Nationals looks on before a game against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on July 29, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We all know Henri Matisse the painter, with his vivid use of color and bold brushstrokes, leading with emotion over realism (distinct characteristics of Fauvism, so named after critics referred to the artists of the movement as fauves, or “wild beasts”). But in his later years, declining health made painting inaccessible, so he shifted to cut-outs, with aid from his studio assistants. Matisse would hold the scissors and they would rotate the paper until he’d reached his desired shape, and from there they would pin the cut-out to a surface, be it paper or wall, that allowed him to continue to adjust its location.
Initially dismissed as childish, respect for this era of Matisse’s work grew over time. They are deceptively simple and utterly beguiling, beckoning the viewer to look again, and again, and again. One of the most frequently cited examples of negative space, they are an eternally paradoxical visual of cause-and-effect. Which part of the piece was the original cutout? What part is leftover? In some pieces, like “Composition, Black and Red,” Matisse used both the positive and negative forms of the cut-out, leaving the viewer to puzzle further over what matches and what is just in imitation.
Henri Matisse. Composition, Black and Red (Composition, noir et rouge). 1947 – Museum of Modern Art
Right now, before the season has begun, before pitchers and catchers have even reported for Spring Training, the reality of José Ferrer is obscured by the looming negative space left behind by Harry Ford. A high-profile trade where your team receives a reliever can be hard to swallow. A high-profile trade where your team trades their MLB-ready first round draft pick for a reliever can be like trying to stuff a chainsaw down your gullet. I don’t seek to relitigate the grading of the trade here; that’s been done many times over and, frankly, the deal itself is done. It’s time to move on. Instead, let us peer into that space and see what shape Ferrer might take in Seattle.
Jerry Dipoto and his front office have allegedly had their eyes on Ferrer since 2019 when, according to Daniel Kramer’s story, they tried to acquire him at the trade deadline. “We feel like we got the number one trade target on our list,” Dipoto crowed at the Winter Meetings. And while Ferrer lacked some of the name recognition of baseball’s top relievers, he’s squarely alongside – or ahead – of them on various leaderboards. He’s got a sub-3.0 FIP in his last two years of work, having adjusted some early-career control challenges and mitigating hard contact – in 2025, he only allowed five home runs in his 76.1 innings. As Connor Donovan pointed out in the news write-up, he is an elite ground ball pitcher whose ground ball rate of 62.6% was third among all relievers (minimum 50 innings pitched), after Jhoan Duran and Tim Hill.
Ferrer leads with a 98 MPH sinker, the fuel for those groundball rates, and mixes in a slider against lefties and a changeup for righties. A welcome second lefty in the ‘pen, he is a compelling player for the Mariners’ pitching development staff to tinker with. On a basic level, it seems likely they’ll have him seek to diversify his pitch mix, upping the changeup and slider rates and easing back on the fastball. I would also be quite curious to watch his bullpens in Spring Training, to see if any adjustments are made to his slider, which is certainly effective as-is but lacks some of the command that could maximize its efficacy like this nasty game-ender:
As John Trupin wrote earlier this week, Eduard Bazardo was a workhorse for Seattle’s bullpen last year, throwing 18 ⅓ innings on no rest – eighth-most in MLB. At sixth was Ferrer, pitching for 20 innings after an outing the day before. The Nationals were using him as their primary closer by the end of 2025, but that obviously will not be his role in Seattle. With club control through 2029, there’s ample flexibility for his development and his position within the ‘pen. His presence eases the burden on Gabe Speier when it comes to facing high-leverage lefties, and while they certainly would never be so rigid, it’s not hard to imagine a routine with Ferrer in the seventh, Matt Brash in the eight and Andres Munoz to close it out. Currently, the Mariners are looking at a locked-in relief corps of Munoz, Brash, Speier, Bazardo and Ferrer. That’s the kind of bullpen core that World Series teams are made of.
To the surprise of nobody who knows me, I found it exceptionally hard, in my ill-fated college art class, to relinquish control and make room for the negative space. I wanted to fill and coax and bodily drag the viewer into seeing exactly what I intended by drawing it all out for them. But that’s not how negative space works. It’s meant to be left alone, to shape through absence, and it tests both the resolution of the artist and the presence of the art around it. It is a show of strength, a leap not of faith but of surety, to leave blank space upon a canvas.
We’ve officially wrapped up our countdown of our list of the Mets’ top twenty-five prospects going into the 2026 season. We hope you enjoyed it, and that it was as educational to everyone reading as it was enjoyable for us putting it together. We encourage everyone to use the comment section to submit questions about the state of the Mets’ farm system, our 2026 list, our individual lists, or anything else you have questions about. We’ll do our best to answer everyone!
Here, then, is the full list, complete with links to each player’s write-up:
As always, a special thanks goes out to our friends at Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, FanGraphs, and the countless others who have contributed to our collective knowledge of the Mets’ farm system through first-hand information or secondary sources. Another thanks goes out to the various photographers who have graciously allowed Amazin’ Avenue to use their shots over the years.
Last but certainly not least, the Amazin’ Avenue minor league team thanks our amazing community for their continued passion and enthusiasm. None of this would be possible—or needed—without your continued support.
Sep 26, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Brandon Sproat (40) delivers a pitch against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Milwaukee’s pitching development staff has a reputation around the league as a “pitching lab.” As an organization, the Brewers have done a great job of developing pitchers with talent who were either unheralded or underperformed previously. In 2024, Tobias Myers turned into arguably the Brewers’ best starting pitcher. In 2025, Quinn Priester didn’t lose a game for literal months on end.
In 2026, I think recent acquisition Brandon Sproat is the best bet to follow this pattern.
Coming out of the University of Florida, Sproat was regarded — per Baseball America — “as an athletic righthander with arm speed who emphasized his fastball and changeup,” although his “shaky control induced reliever risk.” Despite the “risk,” he was drafted in the second round of the 2024 draft by the Mets and initially looked to be an amazing find. Sproat breezed through the lower minors and arrived in Triple-A before the end of his first professional season.
Unfortunately, he hit a wall there. The right-hander started seven games in 2024 for the Syracuse Mets, posting a 7.53 ERA. His peripherals weren’t great, either. Sproat allowed 2.2 home runs and 11.3 hits per nine innings, both more than double his average in Double-A. He allowed an opponent slugging percentage of .574. Sproat struck out 11 batters per nine innings in both High-A and Double-A, but that number dipped all the way down to 6.59 in Triple-A. Through his first 22 starts with Syracuse (seven in 2024 and 15 in 2025), Sproat sported a pretty brutal 6.45 ERA.
And then, just like that, he figured things out. Starting in July 2025, Sproat started shoving like he had been in the lower minors. Through his last 11 starts in 2025, he recorded a 2.44 ERA while striking out batters a whopping 30% of the time.
Sproat was rewarded for his efforts with a September call-up, making his major-league debut just before his 25th birthday. He didn’t pitch incredibly well during his four appearances with the Mets but didn’t embarrass himself either. I’m inclined to agree with Baseball America, which said in their scouting report on Sproat that he “has all the ingredients to be a No. 4 starter or better, and he’s ready to assume that role in 2026.” He has talent to spare, with four pitches (a mid-80s sweeper, a high-70s curveball, a slider, and a 94-96 mph sinker) that all have the potential to be plus pitches at the major league level.
So, how can the Brewers’ pitching lab get the most out of Sproat?
Sproat has always been talented, but his success down the stretch came as a result of developing a more effective pitch mix. Milwaukee has had a ton of success with modifying and developing pitch selection, and Sproat has as much to work with as any pitcher the Brewers have had in recent years.
Sproat has used a combination of six different pitches — a sweeper, curveball, changeup, slider, fastball, and sinker — since becoming a member of the Mets organization. Below is his pitch chart over his first four career starts. As shown below, Sproat threw his sinker nearly twice as often as any other pitch. He deployed his sweeper, curveball, fastball, and changeup at roughly equal rates while barely using his slider. It’s an extremely limited sample size, but it does show us what the Mets thought an ideal pitch mix would be for Sproat.
His sinker was hit harder than any other pitch during his four starts in New York, even after accounting for higher volume. Sproat gave up a hit on nine of the 99, or 9.1%, of the sinkers that he threw, with three of those hits going for extra bases. His changeup (43 pitches, two hits) and sweeper (55 pitches, one hit) were each used less frequently than his sinker but proved very effective when utilized. Brewer Fanatic’s Jake McKibbin showed that the sinker and sweeper were ineffective against lefties, describing them as pretty much “neutralized.”
Sproat was only throwing his fastball 32% of the time, even in July. He gets solid velocity on his fastball, which can occasionally touch triple digits, but due to below-average shape (a lack of induced vertical break) his fastball hasn’t exactly been a put-out pitch thus far. Baseball America called it “pedestrian.”
The weird thing is that Sproat’s pitch chart with the Mets is almost the exact opposite of what it had been a year prior. Per a 2024 scouting report, Sproat’s best pitches were his fastball and his slider, the two pitches he threw the least as a Met. The fact that he only threw his four seamer 14% of the time in the big leagues probably doesn’t even mean it’s not a good pitch — it just means that without a good shape, it can’t be heavily featured without giving up hard contact. His fastball numbers were good as a Met, which may have because Sproat was reportedly able to slightly alter its shape sometime around… July.
Maybe the fastball is best as an ancillary offering, but I think Milwaukee sees a legitimate plus fastball waiting to be unlocked. Here’s former Brewer Josh Hader on the team’s pitching lab:
“With (pitching coaches) digging more into the lab, they’re starting to learn how pitches should spin to get optimal drop or movement. That’s one of the things we’ve been looking into with TrackMan, seeing how your ball rotates.”
Pretty much every scouting report on Sproat mentions that his fastball has a lot of potential but could use some work to induce further vertical break. That is exactly what the Brewers do. I’d bet that the Brewers will play with Sproat’s fastball until they find the right shape. Trevor Megill and Nick Mears both got hit around before arriving in Milwaukee, but both thrived once they leaned on their fastballs.
In a world where the Brewers are able to unlock his fastball, his ceiling seems to suddenly raise. Even if he doesn’t throw his fastball more than 30-35% of the time, he also has a few other pitches that are worth utilizing.
One of the reasons Sproat improved in July, per Baseball America, was that he began to throw changeups a lot more. His changeup recorded a 26% swinging-strike rate and a 71% groundball rate, with Baseball America noting that the pitch was “paramount” to his recent success. After his fastball, his changeup was his second-most used pitch against left-handed hitters in Triple-A. His curveball — which had a 41% whiff rate and a 32% chase rate in July — was the third-most frequently used.
For the sake of argument, let’s say the Brewers can’t get the sweeper and sinker — a pitch the Mets clearly believed in — to play better against left-handed hitters. If the Brewers can unlock his fastball, he’d have four pitches (fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup) that should all play well against lefties.
Can Sproat be the next Brewers pitching success story? Answer that for yourself. Sproat is an extremely talented prospect, but he’s still figuring out how to pitch to his strengths and fully harness his stuff. He couldn’t have come to a better organization.
PITTSBURGH, PA - AUGUST 08: Chase Burns #26 of the Cincinnati Red pitches during the game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Friday, August 8, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joshua Veon/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Nick Martinez was a starting pitcher for the 2025 Cincinnati Reds right up until he wasn’t. He’d start on Tuesday. He’d then start on Friday. Then, he’d take two weeks off and be a reliever every other day, sometimes for two, three innings at a time.
Martinez, who finalized a one-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday, was precisely the kind of malleable arm that made juggling the rest of the Reds rotation easy. After all, getting more than five arms to be ready only once every fifth day requires a kind of mathematic precision with roster planning and scheduling, and having someone who can do it on their own abbreviated schedule served as a major Band-Aid for manager Terry Francona and head pitching monk Derek Johnson along the way.
So, how will the Reds navigate that issue in 2026?
Complicating the process will be the inevitable innings limits on just about every single candidate for the job. Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson, and Julian Aguiar are each coming off almost completely lost 2025 seasons, and none of them is going to be tasked with getting 30 starts and 180 innings even if they simply refuse to allow hits and runs all year. Chase Burns, meanwhile, threw just 109.1 IP across four levels in 2026 after throwing just 100.0 at Wake Forest the year before, and the Reds clearly operated with innings limits in mind for him last year as they used him in the bullpen down the stretch to keep him available.
Four arms who will need some form of kid gloves all year, and four arms you’d love to still have ready and able for a playoff run come September. How, though, do you use them enough from April through August to get them to that point, though?
Will the Reds send Burns, perhaps, to the bullpen to begin the year, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon opined in his first stab at the Opening Day roster? Would the Reds consider piggy-backing two of these guys from the start?
Is it possible they’d be willing to, say, put Rhett Lowder in the rotation and tell him he’s got 15 starts and they’re shutting him down in July? Might they drag their feet on getting Williamson and Aguiar going in the minors, as both are coming off Tommy John surgeries?
Would they even consider going to a six-man rotation at any given point, or would that throw off the regularity enjoyed by the rest of the starters?
All of this, of course, assumes the health and progress of each of the four arms who are ‘known’ quantities in the rotation in Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Brady Singer. The best case scenario, obviously, is the four names I talked about earlier only having one opening in the rotation available to them. Complications will surely arise, though, and the Reds have enviable depth to be able to address them when they do…provided they can find a way to keep that many talented, deserving arms ready and able to go at any point this season.
It’s almost enough to make you wish Martinez was still around.
NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 27: Jackson Holliday #7 of the Baltimore Orioles takes the field prior to the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, September 27, 2025 in New York, New York. (Photo by Michael Mooney/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The first big question to be answered in every spring training is this: Who got hurt before reporting to camp? Mike Elias’s first media availability with local reporters answered the question on Wednesday morning. It’s not a great report this year. The big news is that Jackson Holliday suffered a broken hamate bone while taking live batting practice on February 6. Additionally, Jordan Westburg has been dealing with some oblique soreness for about three weeks, although for the time being Elias claims Westburg will be ready for Opening Day.
The February 5 acquisition of Blaze Alexander from the Diamondbacks has a bit more of a clear rationale now that we know Westburg has the oblique issue. The team needed to firm up its infield depth if there was any kind of question mark for any of its key players.
This need for depth only became more apparent the very next day with Holliday’s broken hamate bone. According to Elias, Holliday will be having surgery that will remove the hamate tomorrow. If Holliday is able to recover on a typical timeline, it might be Opening Day before he’s even ready to resume baseball activities, and then he’ll need to start building up like he would have done in spring training from that point.
Hamate injuries are notorious for continuing to sap power for some time even after the player is able to play, so we can probably already rule out a big power breakout for Holliday in 2026. He’ll likely be back off the IL at some point in May, even if the full strength doesn’t come back right away. Alexander is going to get a good chance to get some playing time early in the season.
One piece of good news from Elias’s conference is that there were no major pitching injuries. If anything, this news turned out better than expected, as Elias said that Zach Eflin is a full go to start out in spring training. I had been assuming he might be a few weeks behind in his routine after last year’s back surgery. With apologies to Colin Selby, the fact that he has shoulder inflammation and will be hitting the injured list is not a major shakeup to anyone’s imagined Orioles roster. This does still create a roster opening, since Selby was in the projected bullpen especially after Kade Strowd was included in that Arizona trade. It’s not immediately clear who will fill that spot.
Elias also addressed the topic of pitchers who could have gone either way as a starting pitcher or a reliever. For camp, Tyler Wells will be preparing with a starting pitcher’s workload. Chayce McDermott is headed for the bullpen. Neither of these are too surprising, so it’s more notable that they’ve been confirmed by Elias.
Wells doesn’t have a clear path to the Opening Day rotation in my eyes unless someone ahead of him gets hurt. I think he’s the #6 guy around, so the team does need him to be ready for that workload if it becomes necessary due to anything that happens with another player in camp. I’m not going to pretend that I think McDermott might be anything or that it would be a good news if we ever see him on the big league roster for any length of time.
The next step is to get everybody through spring training with as few injuries as possible. The offseason injury report was pretty good in spring training last year and the Orioles still ended up with a whole bunch of problems by the time Opening Day rolled around and afterwards.
Jerry Dipoto, executive vice president of the Seattle Mariners, speaks during the GeekWire Sports Tech Summit in Seattle, Washington, U.S., on Thursday, June 22, 2017. The event brings together dozens of leading thinkers in data science, sports marketing, virtual reality, wearables and more. Photographer: David Ryder/Bloomberg via Getty Images | Bloomberg via Getty Images
Pitchers and catchers are reporting, and so are public projection systems. Baseball Prospectus has released their 2026 projections from PECOTA, with a glowing 93.6-win aggregated projection for the Seattle Mariners that is the best in the American League by a sizable margin. Not only is Seattle projected to repeat as AL West champions, but they hold the highest playoff odds and World Series odds of any club in the AL, and are second in all totals only to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It’s a ringing endorsement for Seattle, who boast an above-average lineup and pitching staff, bolstered significantly by their willingness to add Brendan Donovan to the fold. Between Donovan, 5-win projections for both Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, and each of Seattle’s five presumed rotation members projecting from average to All-Star caliber, PECOTA tells us plenty we know already. What is helpful however, is how these M’s contrast to the rest of the league.
The AL West features three genuine contenders, with both Lone Star State clubs checking in as near-coin flips for a playoff spot. They remain a tier below Seattle, however, with Houston around an 86 win pace and Texas at 84. Striking distance, to be sure, but set in such a way to be Seattle’s to lose. Only the Cubs above their thrifty compatriots and the Dodgers above their mortal competitors feature a greater gap between the 1st and 2nd place clubs in their divisions in terms of projected wins as the AL West.
The crowded AL East is its own worst enemy, with all five clubs set at a >.500 pace, albeit more comfortably for the Yankees and Blue Jays than their compatriots. There’s plucky promise from the Kansas City Royals in PECOTA’s eyes as well, with the AL Central continuing to remain the second division of the sport’s highest level.
On the heels of a near dead heat projection by ZiPS in late January, prior to Seattle’s acquisition of Donovan, Seattle has now a formidable expectation of superiority from the major public projections, with FanGraphs presently showing Seattle around an 87-88 win club that’s 6-7 wins ahead of their Texan competition. On the day of triumphant celebration in downtown Seattle for one SoDo club, there’s reason to think more high-level play impends on the corner of Occidental.
TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 05: Ben Rice #22 of the New York Yankees hits a two run double during the seventh inning in game two of the American League Division Series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on October 05, 2025 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We need to start this article with an acknowledgement: Any list or stack ranking posted on social media is intended to generate engagement. Well, congratulations Major League Baseball, I have become engaged. On Monday night, MLB Network continued their coverage of the Top 10 Right Now, ranking various position groups. Someone—or perhaps something—called The Shredder presented this Top 10 First Basemen list:
Freddie Freeman
Nick Kurtz
Matt Olson
Bryce Harper
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Rafael Devers
Yandy Díaz
Pete Alonso
Michael Busch
William Contreras
According to MLB itself, The Shredder is not the leader of the Foot Clan, but is in fact “MLB Network research team’s collective system of research and analysis that uses traditional and advanced metrics and takes into account previous player performance to determine who makes the lists.” The more you know.
Anyway, all of these players are fine, representative MLBers. There’s a name here that’s missing though, a name that was the sixth-best hitting first baseman in baseball last year even as his own team continued to give time to Paul Goldschmidt. That player is Ben Rice, and when I saw what The Shredder had presented, my first thought was “How many of these guys would I rather have Rice over?”
When thinking about this I’m not worried about contracts or salaries — the fact that Rice is making the MLB minimum immediately makes him one of the top three most “valuable” first basemen, alongside Nick Kurtz and Michael Busch. Let’s just talk about who I think would provide the most on-field production in 2026, whether that costs $780,000 or $25,000,000. To wit, give me Rice instead of Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Yandy Díaz, and Willson Contreras.
To start, Díaz isn’t really the Rays’ first baseman, with All-Star Jonathan Aranda expected to get the lion’s share of time at the cold corner while Yandy is deployed as the primary DH. Moreover, he, Harper, and Rice were all pretty well equal in 2025, in a tight band between 130-135 wRC+ and 25-27 home runs. Rice gets the edge because he’ll be 27 on Opening Day, and while that’s older than you’d expect for a guy about to start his second full season, it’s six and seven years younger than Harper and Díaz respectively. Father Time is the only undefeated champion, and we’ll return to him in a moment.
Devers is a little trickier simply because for the better part of the last decade, he’s been one of the finest pure hitters in baseball … except he went from Fenway Park to Oracle out in San Francisco. He actually did OK for himself in the power department — famously a challenge for left-handed hitters in that stadium — going yard every 19.75 PA as a Giant compared to every 22.27 PA while with the Red Sox. Overall though, he saw steps back in ISO and all three triple slash categories, and how much of that is a “new team” tax and how much is moving from the second-best ballpark for hitters to the 22nd best is part of the story of the 2026 season. I’m going to hedge to the latter though, not to mention San Fran has to be more than a little worried about first base defense. Edge to Rice in my book, long track record be damned.
Ben Rice was better than Willson Contreras in 2025 at everything but two points of batting average. Contreras is moving into Fenway which should help him out especially as a right-handed hitter, but his Statcast page, were it a rash, would demand a soothing oatmeal ointment and not an immediate course of antibiotics like in Rice’s case.
So those are the four guys I would slot below Ben Rice. I’m willing to concede that Nick Kurtz is probably a better hitter — in fact, I’m not that far from being convinced Nick Kurtz is like, one of the five or so best hitters in baseball, period. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to be a more complicated case, as his production was very similar to Rice’s in 2025, he plays a little more of a leadership role than the young Yankee, and occupies more space in the cultural weight of their respective franchises. I’d lean towards a wash but sure, we can slot Vlad over top. Pete Alonso’s raw power probably makes him a better bet in ‘26, but beyond that I’d be betting Rice all day. Still, we’re just thinking about this coming year.
We come to a couple of pushes — Michael Busch and Matt Olson. Busch was the best hitter of the three but not by much, and Rice’s underlying metrics are the most impressive of the trio but again, not by much. Olson gets the nod as the best defender, buttttttttt I generally don’t care about first base defense. We have a three-way tie for my 2026 expectations here.
That leaves the head of the table, Freddie Freeman. For most of my adult life he’s been the gold standard of play at first base, and while 2025 was a step back from his own lofty track record, it was still a 139 wRC+ and a four-win season. Here’s where we move beyond educated guesses about performance and into straight speculation, where I’ll say that the future Hall of Famer is my breakdown pick of the year, the opposite of the ever-so-popular breakout pick. He will turn 37 midseason, has dropped out of the World Baseball Classic for personal reasons, and while he does have a 138 wRC+ over his past two seasons, it was 153 in the five before that stretch. I don’t think he outright collapses, but Father Time is winning on the judges’ cards.
So I’m confident that Rice is a better pick than four of the so-called Shredder’s top 10, maybe five depending on Freeman’s aging curve. The Yankees drafted a guy in the 12th round out of a school more proficient at churning out diplomats than sluggers, and you have a very good argument he’s one of the four or five best in the world at his position. Not a bad piece of business.
PECOTA has the Cubs at about a 90-72 record, which is pretty close to the 92-70 from 2025. (Personally, I think they’re better than that.)
The Brewers are next at approximately 80-82. PECOTA has underestimated the Brewers many times in recent years. Personally, I think the Brewers are better than that, though they have traded away a couple of key players (Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin) from last year’s 97-win team.
The Pirates, who have made some noise through free-agent signings (Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O’Hearn), are listed next at 79-83. That might be a bit too optimistic, in my view.
The Reds made the postseason last year with an 83-79 record and proceeded to get swept by the Dodgers in the wild-card round. PECOTA also has them at about 79-83. The Reds should be better than that. That pitching rotation can be scary.
The Cardinals are in full rebuild mode after trading away Sonny Gray, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras. PECOTA has them as a 96-loss team. The Cardinals haven’t lost that many games since 1913 (!), when they lost 99. This could be a 100-loss Cardinals team.
Adbert Alzolay | // Photo: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
When the Mets inked Adbert Alzolay to a two-year minor league deal ahead of the 2025 season, it was always with an eye toward the 2026 season. The right-handed reliever had undergone Tommy John surgery late in the 2024 season, and while pitchers sometimes return within a year, the Mets didn’t have him pitch in any minor league games last year.
Alzolay did, however, pitch four innings in the Venezuelan Winter League after the conclusion of the 2025 season, and he’s coming into spring training as a fully healthy pitcher. And given the fact that he’s out of options, he figures to have a leg up on some of his competition in spring training.
Having made the Baseball Prospectus 101 ahead of the 2018 season, Alzolay made his major league debut with the Cubs in 2019. He made a handful appearances that year and a few more in the abbreviated 2020 season before making 29 appearances, 21 of them starts, in 2021. In total, he had a 4.58 ERA and a 4.68 FIP through his first 159.1 innings at the major league level.
A right lat injury derailed the vast majority of Alzolay’s 2022 season, but when he made it back to the mound in September, the Cubs used him as a multi-inning reliever. His 2023 season was undoubtedly the best of his career thus far, as he was healthy and finished the year with a 2.67 ERA and a 3.02 FIP in 64.0 innings of work.
Things didn’t go smoothly in 2024, though. Alzolay struggled mightily through 17.1 innings to start the year, and by mid-May, he had made his final major league appearance of the season because of the elbow injury. And he made just three minor league appearances on a rehab assignment in July of that year before ultimately requiring the aforementioned Tommy John surgery that August.
The hope here is that Alzolay can return to his 2023 form, as that’s the only season for which he was both healthy and working exclusively as a reliever. His strikeout rate was solid if unspectacular, but his walk rate was fantastic at just 5.1 percent. For reference, the major league average for relievers that year was 9.5 percent.
While the Mets didn’t retain Brooks Raley for the entirety of his rehab from Tommy John surgery, they did sign him to a one-year deal with a team option as he was in the final stages of that recovery process. They’ll be thrilled if Alzolay returns to form anywhere near as well as Raley did last year, and if he looks anywhere near that good by the end of the Grapefruit League schedule, you have to figure he’ll be on the Mets’ roster come Opening Day.
As for projections, all of the systems published at FanGraphs have Alzolay throwing forty-something innings this year with an ERA in the vicinity of four. Even that would be a success given what’s happened over the past two years, but a higher-percentile outcome would be a big win for the Mets.
What do you expect to see from Alzolay this year? Jump into the comments to chat about it, or register for an account if you’re new to the comment section!
Pitchers and catchers report today to officially kick off camp! They’ll get a few days of work in before the team’s first scheduled full-squad workout on Monday.
This time of year is always exciting for baseball fans, and this spring marks the first chance to see whether the A’s young squad can build on the momentum from its strong finish to last season.
Unlike the past couple of years, the A’s lineup is mostly set and full of returning contributors. A year ago, Nick Kurtz was a top prospect taking part in his first professional camp. Now, the reigning American League Rookie of the Year is one of the top first basemen in baseball and a key cog of an offense that expects to score often this season.
For two hitters, this will be their first time in an A’s uniform. The club acquired Jeff McNeil and Andy Ibanez to further strengthen the offense, with McNeil in particular representing a clear upgrade from the roving cast of second basemen the A’s employed last year.
With Denzel Clarke likely to man center field assuming he comes through the World Baseball Classic and camp healthy, that leaves third base as the team’s lone position battle. Ibanez could start at the hot corner or slide into a utility role if Max Muncy or Darrell Hernaiz comes out on top. Muncy, the A’s first-round pick in 2021, showed some promise in his rookie season and may have the highest ceiling of the group.
The team’s ability to return to playoff contention will largely depend on the performance of its pitching staff. Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs and free-agent signee Aaron Civale are locked into rotation spots. It would be hard to justify not rewarding Luis Morales and Jacob Lopez with the final two slots given how well both pitched last season.
The bullpen figures to look similar to how it did at the end of last year, with the addition of new signee Scott Barlow and potentially one of the young arms such as Jack Perkins or Luis Medina. That said, the A’s could still use another late-inning option. Left-hander Danny Coulombe would be a quality addition, as would right-hander Michael Kopech.
Who are you most looking forward to seeing this spring? Would you rather the A’s stick with the current roster or make another move to fortify the pitching staff? Will elite shortstop prospect Leo De Vries live up to the hype in his first spring training with the A’s?
The A’s need Severino to pitch a bit better this year. Can he live up to expectations?
Which A’s player has the most pressure this season?
For me, it’s Luis Severino.
Sevy needs a strong start to 2026, not just to anchor this rotation but to reclaim his leverage before next seasons player option.#Athleticspic.twitter.com/IMFskd7UGs
In June, the A’s will play the Brewers and Rockies at their Triple-A affiliate’s ballpark, part of the team’s ongoing push into Las Vegas ahead of their new stadium.
What do you think of the team’s decision to designate Grant Holman and Mitch Spence for assignment? Was it the right call or not?
The A's have signed RHP Scott Barlow and RHP Aaron Civale to one-year deals. To clear spots on the 40-man roster, the A’s have designated RHP Grant Holman and RHP Mitch Spence for assignment.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - MARCH 28: Players line up during introductions prior to the Opening Day game between the Chicago White Sox and the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on March 28, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Spring training always brings a mix of optimism, overreactions, and genuine roster dilemmas, especially when young players are pushing for jobs, and the front office has real decisions to make at the margins. So let’s turn it over to you. If you were setting the roster for Opening Day, who makes your 26 and why?
Lock in your lineup, rotation, bullpen, and bench, and defend your choices before reality inevitably ruins all of our carefully constructed plans.
Here’s who’s in camp:
*-denotes non-roster invitee
Catchers (10): Jorge Alfaro*, Canyon Brown*, Omar Hernandez*, Carter Jensen, Luke Maile*, Elih Marrero*, Blake Mitchell*, Salvador Pérez, Ramon Ramirez*, Luca Tresh*
Infielders (13): Brandon Drury*, Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India, Connor Kaiser*, Michael Massey, Kevin Newman*, Vinnie Pasquantino, Josh Rojas*, Tyler Tolbert, Abraham Toro*, Daniel Vazquez*, Peyton Wilson*, Bobby Witt Jr.
Outfielders (11): Dairon Blanco, Jac Caglianone, Gavin Cross*, Isaac Collins, Kyle Isbel, Nick Loftin, Kameron Misner, John Rave, Carson Roccaforte*, Lane Thomas, Drew Waters
Pitchers (33): Luinder Avila, Ryan Bergert, Mason Black, Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, A.J. Causey*, Eric Cerantola, Dennis Colleran*, Steven Cruz, Jose Cuas*, Lucas Erceg, Carlos Estévez, Bailey Falter, Stephen Kolek, Ben Kudrna, Alex Lange, Seth Lugo, Daniel Lynch IV, Alec Marsh, Chazz Martinez*, James McArthur, Nick Mears, Frank Mozzicato*, Héctor Neris*, Helcris Olivárez*, Shane Panzini*, Hunter Patteson*, Cole Ragans, Aaron Sanchez*, John Schreiber, Matt Strahm, Michael Wacha, Steven Zobac
Marsh is likely to miss most of the year with a shoulder injury. Among the players out of options are Bailey Falter, Nick Mears, and Drew Waters.
Give me your 26 players that begin the season in Atlanta on March 27!
HARTFORD, CT - MAY 13: Gabriel Hughes #45 of the Hartford Yard Goats pitching during the game between the Binghamton Rumble Ponies and the Hartford Yard Goats at Dunkin' Park on Tuesday, May 13, 2025 in Hartford, Connecticut. (Photo by Emerson Ricciardone/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
Hughes is now over two years removed from a Tommy John surgery that cut a promising first full professional season short for Colorado’s first pick in 2022 (10th overall with an under-slot $4 million bonus). The 24-year-old 6’4” right-hander was ranked more as a late-first rounder than a top-10 pick by national prospect watchers at the time, but the Rockies obviously liked the starter’s frame, feel for pitching and the three-pitch mix. The former two-way player has a fastball that sits in the low-mid 90s and a bulldog mentality that has been compared to Max Scherzer (you can see some of that in the video below).
Mid-season 2025 Rank: 11
High Ballot: 1 (1)
Mode Ballot: 12
Future Value: 40, starter depth
Contract Status: 2022 First Round, Gonzaga University, 40 Man Roster, three options remaining
MLB ETA: 2026
Hughes pitched well in High-A in his first full professional season in 2023. He threw 37 2⁄3 innings across eight starts with a 5.50 ERA (3.48 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 rate, and 3.6 BB/9 rate. The xFIP and high K/9 rate indicate better stuff than the raw results delivered, and the Rockies agreed by promoting Hughes to Double-A Hartford in early June. Hughes was 3.4 years younger than league average, but he mostly held his own, even if the ERA didn’t bear that out. In 29 innings over six starts, Hughes had a 7.14 ERA but a 4.06 xFIP with a 1.55 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 rate, and 3.4 BB/9 rate for Hartford. It was a good first full professional season for Hughes, but unfortunately it ended due to the injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery in July.
Hughes rehabbed the injury throughout the 2024 season but was able to make Colorado’s Arizona Fall League roster. He started six games, throwing 17 1⁄3 innings with a 8.31 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 rate, and 5.2 BB/9 rate. The numbers weren’t impressive, but scouts at the AFL reported his stuff had largely returned post-surgery and he was working on developing his breaking balls.
In 2025, Hughes returned to Hartford, where he was still 1.7 years younger than average. In nine starts there, Hughes got good results in short bursts (he was limited to five innings per start), throwing 41 innings with a 3.07 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 rate, and 1.8 BB/9 rate — earning him a late May promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque.
In the tough Pacific Coast League, Hughes faced an uphill climb. In 14 starts there, Hughes (as expected) posted worse run prevention numbers across the board (5.11 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 rate, 4.2 BB/9 rate) in 61 2/3 innings. These starts were interrupted by a month-long IL stint between mid June and late July (and a brief rehab start in the ACL). After returning, Hughes ramped up his pitch count (the highest was 96) and pitched into the sixth inning in three straight starts.
Though Hughes didn’t blow upper minors hitting away in 2025 or go super deep into games, his blended 4.19 ERA in 105 1/3 innings in 24 starts was an encouraging sign in his first full season post-Tommy John. It was enough for the Rockies to add Hughes to the 40 man roster this offseason.
Here’s some video on Hughes from 2024 instructs and the AFL courtesy of FanGraphs:
In the report accompanying the above video, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs grades Hughes as a 40 FV player (down from 45 preseason), 18th in the system with a 55 future grade on the changeup and a 50 future grade on command and slider:
Hughes attacks with a 93-94 mph fastball that often has a little bit of natural cut. His breaking stuff has plateaued; his 85-88 mph slider/cutter is average and lives off of his command, while his 79-82 mph curveball is well below average. Toss out Hughes’ surface-level AFL stats because he was clearly working on this curveball a ton during that stretch. His changeup, a tailing upper-80s offering, is getting better and might be his best pitch at peak. It often has enough tail to run off the front hip of lefty batters and back into the zone. Hughes’ prototypical size, athleticism, and arm action augur more changeup growth, as well as strikes and efficient innings. Hughes won’t be dominant, and I’m perhaps not appreciating how homer prone he’ll be sitting 93 in Colorado, but he should work efficiently and eat innings enough to be a team’s no. 4/5 starter during the regular season.
Hughes’ stuff is down from pre-surgery, as he was sitting 90-92 in Triple A last year with fringe-average breaking stuff, bearing in mind that Albuquerque is about a mile high (with help from Walter White) and that may be contributing to Hughes’ problems. It was Hughes’ first year back post-surgery, so I want to believe the stuff will tick up with another year; as is, he’s a reliever, and probably would be better off in the majors than going back to pitch on the surface of a small Jovian moon again.
MLB Pipeline ranks Hughes 14th on the system list last year as a 45 FV player with a 55 slider grade to pair with 50 grades on the fastball, curveball, and control:
Hughes was able to use his 17 1/3 innings in the AFL to shake some of the rust off and the good news is that his stuff looked pretty much back to where it was pre-injury. His fastball averaged 93 mph and touched 96, thrown with good sink to frequently get ground-ball contact. His cutter-like slider was regularly in the mid 80s, a hard breaker that flashed plus in the past, and he has some feel to spin a slower 80-82 mph curve, though it’s behind the harder breaking ball. His upper-80s changeup is starting to improve as well.
Throw out Hughes’ surface numbers in the AFL given they came from his first post-surgery innings. He generally was around the zone previously, though his up-tempo delivery could get out of sync and cause timing issues, which in turn would lead to control problems. His ceiling might be somewhat limited, but once he really puts TJ behind him, he could be a big league back-end starter soon.
At his healthiest, Hughes has looked like an efficient, mid-rotation workhorse, befitting his 10th overall selection in the 2022 draft. That’s meant low to mid-90s fastballs and a medley of off-speed that all plays up thanks to plus command. That all evaporated in mid-2023, as Hughes saw his velocity and stuff fall off, a sure sign of concerns that led ultimately to the surgeon’s table. Out recovering and rehabbing all of 2024, Hughes can hopefully return to the mound in full in 2025. He’ll have plenty of company in the rehabbing circuit, with several of the most promising arms in the system making their way back from TJ alongside him. His physicality and athleticism is encouraging in spite of the surgery, as the 6-foot-4 righty has the frame to flesh out a more durable existence.
Hughes is a starting pitcher prospect with pedigree and polish, though he probably won’t be a star, which is why I ranked him as a 40 FV player, 18th on my list. His 2025 Hartford performance and late-season run in Albuquerque was encouraging given how he’s working to fully trust his stuff post-surgery. As a 40-man roster spot holder, Hughes will be a candidate for the Rockies’ rotation this spring, though I expect him to be an up-and-down contributor to the team in 2026.
