Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the best pitchers, and one of the best postseason performers, in baseball.

In Game 2 of last year’s NLCS, Yamamoto mystified the Brewers offense, throwing 111 pitches en route to a complete-game victory. Less than two months ago, he went six innings and struck out nine in a game the Dodgers went on to win.

Yesterday, in Game 2 of the 2026 NLCS, he couldn’t make it through the third inning.

It took Yamamoto 45 pitches to get through the order once. The second time around, he struck out leadoff man Jackson Chourio on three pitches, but the Brewers kept grinding. Brice Turang worked a six-pitch walk, then William Contreras flew out after battling for seven pitches.

With Yamamoto at 61 pitches through 2 2/3 innings, Jake Bauers came to the plate and put together the best at-bat of the series, culminating in a 12-pitch walk. One batter later, Christian Yelich laced a single up the middle that forced Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to go to his bullpen in the third inning.

Let’s take a closer look at that moment.

Bauers’ at-bat was a perfect microcosm of the Brewers’ strategy against Yamamoto. Nobody in baseball is going to out-pitch Yamamoto over nine playoff innings, so the Brewers set out to make sure he never got the chance. Unlike last year’s NLCS, when they were uncharacteristically happy to chase (and miss) pitches out of the zone, this time they tried to make him beat them in the strike zone.

Of Yamamoto’s 75 pitches, 35 were in the strike zone and 40 were out of it. The Brewers swung and missed just four times, compared to 12 called strikes. They weren’t swinging through anything; they took pitches early and made contact late to try and drive up Yamamoto’s pitch count.

The box score credits Yamamoto with 46 strikes and 29 balls. Take away the 16 called and swinging strikes, and that leaves 30 strikes that were either fouled off or put in play. Yamamoto faced 14 batters, striking out one and walking two, so 11 balls were put in play.

That means 19 of his pitches ended in foul balls, almost exactly a quarter of his total pitches. Nine of those foul balls, across two at-bats, were courtesy of Bauers.

Somehow, the box score doesn’t quite capture how impressive Bauers’ second at-bat was. Yamamoto, who throws six different pitches, is one of the filthiest pitchers in baseball. Making it through 12 pitches against him is, quite literally, something nobody in Major League Baseball had ever done.

Here’s what you may have missed, pitch by pitch:

Pitch 1: 91.8-mph splitter (1-0)

This might look like an easier take on TV, but one reason Yamamoto is so effective is how his splitter and four-seamer play off each other. A fastball in that location would stay in the zone for a strike. The splitter looks like it might catch the bottom of the zone, then dives away from the left-handed Bauers and into the dirt. Bauers recognizes the spin and takes it for ball one.

Pitch 2: 91.3-mph splitter (1-1)

Yamamoto comes back with a perfectly located splitter that catches the outside corner. His fastball usually sits about five mph faster than his splitter, so if Bauers had mistaken this for a middle-out fastball, he’d have been out in front and on top of it, likely rolling over into a weak groundout two pitches into the at-bat. Instead, he takes it for strike one.

Pitch 3: 96.3-mph fastball (2-1)

After two straight splitters at 91, a high fastball can look like a mistake worth jumping on. But at five mph harder than the splitter, this one keeps riding up and out of the zone.

As mentioned, Yamamoto gets a lot of quick outs by letting his fastball play off his splitter. A more swing-happy hitter probably swings under this one for strike two, or worse, pops it up. Bauers clearly wants to swing, but he lays off for ball two.

Pitch 4: 76.9-mph curveball (2-2)

While Yamamoto’s splitter is his main change-of-speed weapon, he also has a big, loopy curveball in his back pocket. It sits in the mid-70s, so after a 96-mph fastball, it can almost look like it’s in slow motion.

Just like the previous fastball, Yamamoto starts it high. A hitter who’s geared up for velocity can easily get out in front of it and roll over, but Bauers doesn’t bite. The problem is that this time, the pitch doesn’t stay up — it drops into the zone, and for the first time in the at-bat, Yamamoto has the upper hand. Strike two.

Pitch 5: 91.6-mph splitter (3-2)

Yamamoto goes back to the splitter, similar to the second pitch. This one starts high, then breaks down and away from Bauers, but it doesn’t end up in the zone. With two strikes, plenty of hitters would protect the plate and chase it. Bauers takes it to run the count full.

Pitch 6: 97.0-mph fastball (3-2)

Yamamoto reaches back for a little extra and tries to blow a high-and-tight fastball by Bauers. Bauers catches up to it just enough to fight it off foul.

Pitch 7: 77.7-mph curveball (3-2)

Yamamoto tries to mess with Bauers’ timing again with a nasty curveball, about 20 mph slower than the fastball, that would have just caught the bottom inside corner. Bauers, out ahead of it, manages to slow himself down just enough to foul it off.

Pitch 8: 95.7-mph sinker (3-2)

Yamamoto throws his first sinker of the at-bat, and it almost gets Bauers, who swings defensively and pops it up into foul territory down the left-field line. Neither Max Muncy nor Teoscar Hernández can quite get to it, so Bauers lives to see another pitch.

Pitch 9: 97.4-mph fastball (3-2)

At this point, Bauers is just playing pepper. In an impressive display of bat control, he gets inside another high-and-tight fastball and fouls it off.

Pitch 10: 93.7-mph cutter (3-2)

Bauers looks to be sitting on this one and gets a good chunk of it, but the roughly four-mph change of speed between this cutter (the first of the plate appearance) and the previous fastball throws off his timing just enough. His line drive goes foul down the first-base line.

Pitch 11: 92.3-mph splitter (3-2)

Based on the way he gears up to swing, Bauers is probably thinking fastball or cutter again. But surprise, it’s a splitter! At the last second, it dives down and away, and Bauers — in full “protect the plate” mode — manages to foul it into the dirt with the very end of his bat.

Pitch 12: 79.2-mph curveball (walk)

Bauers has swung at the last six pitches, so Yamamoto goes back to his curveball, hoping Bauers will chase one more time. He starts it at the bottom of the zone and lets it dive below. Bauers recognizes the curveball and lays off for ball four.

Bauers faced five different pitches, fouled off at least one of each, and ended the at-bat with a 12-pitch walk, something no hitter had ever done against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Brewers didn’t beat one of the best pitchers in baseball by hitting him hard. They beat him by refusing to let him put them away, and no one refused harder than Jake Bauers.

The National League Championship Series is back in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers offense has yet to fully show up. One year after sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers in this series, it’s the Brewers with the commanding lead now, trying for their first World Series appearance in 44 years.

A two-game losing streak in the postseason is never advisable, though the Dodgers in each of their last two title runs survived such a fate. After dropping Games 2 and 3 of the NL Division Series in 2024, the Dodgers won the last two games against the San Diego Padres to advance. In the 2025 World Series, the Dodgers dropped Games 4 and 5 to the Blue Jays at home before taking Games 6 and 7 on the road in Toronto.

Being down 2-0 in a seven-game series is a daunting task, even with the next potentially three games at home at Dodger Stadium. In MLB postseason history, 95 times a team has led a best-of-7 series 2-0, and 79 times that team won the series (83.2 percent).

Last year saw an even split in this regard. The Dodgers and Seattle Mariners each won the first two games of their LCS on the road. The Dodgers completed the sweep of the Brewers at home, while the Blue Jays came back to beat the Mariners in seven games to advance to the Fall Classic.

This is the fifth time during this 14-year postseason streak that the Dodgers have trailed 2-0 in a best-of-7 series.

2013 NLCS vs. Cardinals

Dodgers lost the first two games by one run each on the road, then took two of three at home in Los Angeles before Clayton Kershaw and crew got blown out in Game 6 in St. Louis.

2018 World Series vs. Red Sox

The Dodgers were outclassed in this series, and dropped the first two games at Fenway Park. They won a classic Game 3 in 18 innings, which has become a bit of a tradition now in Los Angeles. The Dodgers led 4-0 after six innings of Game 4, but blew that game and got throttled in Game 5 to watch a team celebrate a championship on their home field.

2020 NLCS vs. Braves

There was no home and road during the pandemic season, with all seven games of this series at Globe Life Field in Texas over seven days. As the home team, the Dodgers lost the first two games, then scored a record 11 runs in the first inning to take Game 3 before losing Game 4. The Dodgers won their final three games, then used that as a springboard to snap a 32-year championship drought.

2021 NLCS vs. Braves

The 106-win Dodgers had three ace-level starting pitchers in Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urías, but all were ailing by the NLCS. The 88-win Braves won their division, which meant they got home-field advantage in this series, and won the first two games in walk-off fashion. In Los Angeles, the Dodgers pulled out a comeback win in Game 3 and got three home runs from Chris Taylor in Game 5 to get the series back to Atlanta. But Eddie Rosario and company finished off the Dodgers in Game 6.

In franchise history, the Dodgers have trailed a best-of-7 series 2-0 thirteen times, and they’ve come back to win four of those series (30.8 percent). Here are the rest, before this current postseason streak:

1916 World Series vs. Red Sox

Brooklyn dropped the first two games in Boston, including a 14-inning complete-game win by Babe Ruth in Game 2. The Red Sox won in five games.

1947 World Series vs. Yankees

The Dodgers dropped the first two games at Yankee Stadium, but won the next two in Brooklyn, including a walk-off win to spoil Bill Bevens’ no-hitter attempt in Game 4. After the two teams traded road wins in the next two games, the Yankees prevailed in Game 7 at home.

1953 World Series vs. Yankees

After dropping the first two games in The Bronx, Brooklyn evened the series at home before dropping Game 5 at Ebbets Field. The Yankees clinched the series at home in Game 6.

1955 World Series vs. Yankees

The Yankees won the first two games, and the home team won each of the first six games. Johnny Podres and crew stopped the streak with a 2-0 win at Yankee Stadium in Game 7, bringing the Dodgers their first World Series triumph.

1965 World Series vs. Twins

Don Drysdale and Sandy Koufax were beaten in the first two games on the road, but the Dodgers won all three games at Dodger Stadium. After the Twins evened things in Game 6, Sandy Koufax struck out 10 in his second shutout in four days to clinch the series in Game 7 in Minnesota.

1966 World Series vs. Orioles

The Dodgers dropped the first two games at Dodger Stadium to an upstart Orioles team, including center fielder Willie Davis making three errors in the fifth inning of Game 2. The Dodgers scored two runs in Game 1, but failed to score in the final 33 innings of the series to get swept in four games.

1978 World Series vs. Yankees

After winning the first two games in Los Angeles, the Yankees outscored them 28-8 over the next four games to win another title.

1981 World Series vs. Yankees

The Dodgers turned the tables, dropping the first two games in New York before winning three at Dodger Stadium. The home highlight was Jerry Reuss out-dueling Ron Guidry in Game 5, with back-to-back home runs by Pedro Guerrero and Steve Yeager in the seventh inning fueling the 2-1 victory. The Dodgers finished things off with a 9-2 win at Yankee Stadium in Game 6, and Steve Howe recorded a 3 2/3-inning save in the clincher.

2008 NLCS vs. Phillies

After dropping the first two games in Philadelphia, the Dodgers won Game 3 at home, then Matt Stairs happened in Game 4, and Cole Hamels and crew won the pennant the next day.

The Mets family has suffered a loss, as former bullpen coach and team adviser Guy Conti passed away after a lengthy illness. He was 84.

Conti was a baseball lifer who enjoyed a decades-long career. He first joined the Mets shortly after Willie Randolph was hired to be the team’s manager ahead of the 2005 season, and he served as the franchise’s bullpen coach for four years, including during the memorable 2006 campaign. He then served as a minor league adviser and spring training coordinator for the organization in subsequent years. Prior to coming to New York, Conti worked for the Dodgers and developed a close relationship with Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax, who subsequently often visited the Mets as a guest instructor during spring training while Conti was in the fold. He also helped to mentor a young Pedro Martinez during his time in the Dodgers organization, and the Mets would subsequently benefit from that tutelage when they signed the future Hall of Famer and reunited the two years later. Between the close relationships with two baseball giants and the decades of experience working in baseball, Conti’s accomplishments are enough to be the envy of anyone in the game.

Entering the 2026 season, who would you have expected to be the Nationals second best starter at the end of the year? I am sure it would have taken you a while to get to Andrew Alvarez, but here we are. The Nats pitching staff did not have a great season as a whole, but Andrew Alvarez’s emergence was one of a few good stories.

While Alvarez being this good was unexpected, it did not come out of nowhere. Alvarez actually made five starts at the end of last season, and was surprisingly good. He posted a 2.31 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. However, Alvarez was a 26 year old rookie who had middling numbers in AAA. Without much velocity or prospect pedigree, this just felt like a flash in the pan.

However, Alvarez proved that he was no fluke in 2026. On the season, the southpaw posted a 3.43 ERA with 114 strikeouts in 112.2 innings. He dominated down the stretch, with a 2.15 ERA between his recall after the deadline and his unfortunate last start of the season. While he is not a perfect pitcher, Alvarez’s success was no accident.

Andrew Alvarez has a well defined approach to pitching, and it makes him difficult to hit. He avoids throwing pitches in the middle of the zone at all costs. While that nibbling led to a 10.8% walk rate, it also helped him stay off the barrel. Alvarez’s 6.2% barrel rate and 49.8% GB rate are both excellent marks. Those numbers are a big reason why Alvarez only gave up 7 homers in 112.2 innings.

He has done a great job keeping the ball in the park, and that has separated him from a lot of other Nats pitchers. Alvarez’s 1.30 WHIP is pretty mediocre, but his ability to limit the home run helps him avoid big innings. 

However, Alvarez is not some pitch to contact guy who has to pray the ball stays in the yard. He also struck out over a batter per inning this season. That is thanks to his wipeout curveball. The hook is what Alvarez usually turns to when he needs to put batters away. Of his 114 strikeouts, 71 of them came on the curveball. 

Alvarez’s curveball is one of the more unique and underrated pitches in the game. Despite only averaging 92 MPH, his curveball is harder than most. It sits at around 83 MPH, and I have seen it up to 86. He is able to rip that curveball while not sacrificing any movement. In fact, Alvarez’s curveball has more drop than average. Usually, the slower 12-6 curves have more drop, but Alvarez is able to get that movement with velocity.

It should come as no surprise that the curve is Alvarez’s most used pitch. Batters hit just .178 on the offering and homered just once. The rest of Alvarez’s arsenal is solid and sequenced well, but the curveball is really what sets him apart.

If you look at FIP indicators, this season from Alvarez is no fluke. He posted a 3.32 FIP and a 3.67 xFIP. There has been a lot of discourse around Jake Bennett, but Alvarez was just as good and maybe even a little bit better than the former Nats prospect.

With how Alvarez performed, he should be locked into a rotation spot. Between Alvarez, Cavalli and Connelly Early, the Nats have a really solid top three. I would love to see the Nats add an established veteran and let some less proven guys compete for that 5th spot.

This was a great year for Alvarez, but he wants more. At the end of the season, Alvarez told me he wanted to add a bit more velocity in the offseason. He thinks more velocity would help him establish his fastball more and it would just make things easier.

One thing that Alvarez did a lot better at the end of the season was going deeper into games. That was due to gaining more trust from the coaching staff and being a bit more efficient. Hopefully this trend continues and Alvarez can be a guy who gives you at least five innings and often more.

This was a big year for the 27 year old. As a former 12th round pick without prospect pedigree, Alvarez had to scratch and claw his way into the club’s plans. That is exactly what he did, and now he enters 2027 as a key part of the Nationals rotation.

Season Grade: A

The Championship Series are underway in the National League and the American League. Milwaukee has taken a commanding 2-0 series lead against the Dodgers, which has the Dodgers beat panicking that maybe the best team money can buy can’t actually beat the best team analytics can build. Meanwhile, two small market darlings are squaring off in the AL, where the Cleveland Guardians jumped out to a 1-0 lead over the Tampa Bay Rays.

Brewers vs. Dodgers: The Two Towers

I suppose it was inevitable that the only two teams in baseball with 100 or more wins would meet in the National League Championship Series. Just what none of us were waiting for: A Dodgers vs. Brewers rematch of the 2025 NLCS that saw LA unceremoniously sweep Milwaukee out of the Postseason days after they defeated the Cubs. This is a classic “cheer for the meteor” series for many Cubs fans.

These two juggernauts of teams could not be constructed more differently. The Dodgers have seemingly unlimited financial muscle and a willingness to flex it at all times. Their current payroll has more than a billion dollars deferred and is a virtual All Star roster of talent. First baseman Freddie Freeman is a 10-time All Star and was the 2020 MVP, shortstop Mookie Betts is an eight-time All Star and was the 2018 MVP, Shohei Ohtani is a six-time All Star and four-time MVP. Their bullpen is the only bullpen in baseball where former closers accept more money to be a high-leverage setup man and play for a ring.

Meanwhile, in Milwaukee, they rank 19th in total payroll. If you multiply their 146 million payroll by year, it would take them roughly 7.5 years to match the amount of money the Dodgers have deferred. In Milwaukee, they built this team from scratch with smart drafting, international free agent signings, trades and a slew of pre-MLB contract extensions designed to keep talented players like Jackson Chourio in Milwaukee before their full value was on display in the show [VIDEO].

The Dodgers are the team paying those players after they hit free agency, which is why their $339 million annual payroll is not merely double the Brewers payroll (before you get to deferrals), it’s second only to the New York Mets in all of baseball. That type of payroll disparity means you can stack former MVPs back-to-back in your lineup and still trade for the best pitcher in baseball at the deadline — but it does not mean you’ll inevitably win [VIDEO].

The concerns about the Dodgers are already pouring in, but this piece from Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic sums it up nicely:

The Milwaukee Brewers did it again Monday, defeating the Dodgers, 7-4, to take a 2-0 lead in the National League Championship Series. The Brewers look hungrier, more athletic and superior in the bullpen. Including playoffs, they’re now up to 108 wins.

It’s difficult to imagine the Dodgers taking four of the next five games, even with the next three at home. But considering how many escapes they pulled off while becoming two-time World Series champions, it’s also difficult to imagine them just fading away.

“We know what we can do. We know the team that we have,” left fielder Teoscar Hernández said. “There is still a lot of series to go. We know right now they’re playing really good baseball. They’re going to be tough to beat. But it’s not impossible.”

No, it’s not, but so much for the Dodgers needs to change.

The Dodgers and Brewers were second and third in total MLB offense by fWAR (behind the Cubs). They ranked first (Dodgers) and fourth (Brewers) in starting pitching fWAR while they were virtually tied at third (Dodgers) and fourth (Brewers) in relief pitching. This is a remarkably close series on paper. However, as Rosenthal wrote for the piece above “It’s not over. But if you were to picture the end of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ championship run, this is how it would look, no?” It is, exactly how it would look. The young talent on the Brewers just edging out the veteran talent of the Dodgers. There are still potentially five games left to play, which tower will remain standing at the end?

Guardians vs. Rays: The Fellowship without a Ring

Meanwhile in the American League a different battle is raging. If the Dodgers v. Brewers is a battle of the haves and the haves lesses, the battle in the American League is two teams with the smallest payrolls in baseball fighting for a shot to finally win a ring. According to Spotrac, the Tampa Bay Rays’ $95 million payroll ranked 28th among 30 teams in 2026 while the Cleveland Guardians’ $74 million payroll ranked dead last. In addition to rosters built on league-minimum salaries, platoons and youth, the Guardians and Rays have one other thing in common: a lack of championships (a characteristic they notably share with the Brewers).

Cubs fans might recall that the last time Cleveland won a World Series was 1948. Part of what made 2016 such appointment viewing for fans was the knowledge that one long championship drought was sure to end. The Guardians have yet to win it all, it’s been 78 long years of waiting in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Rays are one of the teams who has yet to win it all, period.

Cleveland took the first game between these two teams winning 7-3 last night with both Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey hitting home runs. Team leader, and sure first ballot Hall of Famer, José Ramírez was in the middle of all of it, going two-for-five, driving in a run and playing outstanding defense at third base [VIDEO].

The Rays will try to rebound in Game 2 with Freddy Peralta on the mound. Although, to be clear, starting pitchers were not the problem for Tampa Bay in Game 1. Drew Rasmussen threw a dazzling six innings, striking out seven [VIDEO].

Rasmussen allowed just two runs (unfortunately, they were both solo home runs). This game wasn’t decided by either teams (excellent) starting pitching. It was decided by the bullpens, and in Game 1, that edge went to Cleveland.

These teams are fairly evenly matched. Cleveland holds a slight edge with their relief pitching, although Tampa Bay had the more effective starters this season. The offensive edge goes to the Rays, who had the fourth best offense in baseball and the best offense in the American League by fWAR. The Rays collection of above average platoons and young stars includes 23-year old Junior Caminero, who already has two 40 home run seasons under his belt [VIDEO]:

The Guardians’ best hitters in 2026 were Chase DeLauter, Steven Kwan and Travis Bazzana, but their Postseason hopes probably depend on Ramírez eclipsing all of those hitters production and leading his squad passed the Rays. One thing is certain: the team who wins the ALCS will have their eyes locked on a long elusive Championship ring.

After a very good 2024 season (especially the second half of it) and signing a huge, long term contract, we really were hoping for another step forward. Yeah, this will be less than fun.

We didn’t get it: