There’s nothing — not even the champion who cuts down the nets on the first Monday night of April — that defines the Men’s NCAA basketball Tournament quite like an upset.
The 68-team event is designed to set aside spots for teams from the smallest schools and conferences in the sport and give them an opportunity to take on some of college basketball’s biggest juggernauts on the brightest stage the sport has to offer.
While a healthy percentage of those games are blowouts, others produce the kinds of results and moments that are only possible in March Madness. Over these next three weeks, Cinderella stories will be crafted and unlikely heroes will emerge.
One of the many quandaries facing the millions of people filling out brackets across the country ahead of the 2026 NCAA Tournament this week are identifying those underdogs and trying to correctly guess what seemingly overmatched teams will topple their favored opponents.
To help with that task, and to offer up some advice that surely won’t backfire, here’s a look at the eight most likely upsets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
March Madness upset predictions
For this exercise, 7-versus-10 and 8-versus-9 games were not considered, as the seed-line difference in those matchups is relatively negligible.
1. No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville
This one’s a trendy pick for a reason. Louisville and South Florida are stylistically similar, with both squads employing up-tempo, 3-point-heavy offenses. That would seem to favor the more talented Cardinals, but there are a number of factors that should make the Bulls bullish. For one, there are lingering questions around Louisville freshman star point guard Mikel Brown Jr., who has dealt with persistent back issues this season and whose playing status for the NCAA Tournament is unclear. With Brown, the Cardinals are 16-5. Without him, they’re just 7-5. Even if the projected NBA draft lottery pick is available — and if he is, he’s unlikely to be 100% — Louisville’s underwhelming group of big men may struggle with 6-10 South Florida forward Izaiyah Nelson, the American Conference player of the year who averages 15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game.
The Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the country, riding an 11-game win streak into the tournament, and that could very well continue, even as their level of competition ramps up.
2. No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina
North Carolina’s another ACC program dealing with an injury to a superstar freshman, though the Tar Heels’ outlook is more definitive. They’ll be without standout forward Caleb Wilson, who is sidelined for the rest of the season after undergoing surgery on a broken thumb. Since Wilson’s injury, coach Hubert Davis’ team is 5-4 after a 19-4 start. It has picked up some impressive wins in that time, beating tournament teams like Louisville and Clemson, but it will get a formidable challenge in the Big Dance from a VCU squad that has won 16 of its past 17 games — with the only loss coming on the road at Saint Louis in a game in which the Rams led for much of the night.
3. No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU
BYU still has its transformative freshman, A.J. Dybantsa, healthy and available, but it’s missing another critical piece in standout guard Richie Saunders, an 18-point-per-game scorer who’s out for the season. The Cougars are 5-5 since Saunders went down, but even before he tore his ACL on Feb. 14, his team was starting to slip, with a 2-5 mark after a 16-1 start. It’s a group that could struggle with Texas, which fits the time-honored mold of a talented power-conference squad that underachieves in the regular season before getting hot in March. The Longhorns have a bona fide stud in guard Dailyn Swain and a coach in Sean Miller who has experience advancing past the first week of the tournament.
This upset, of course, would require Texas knocking off NC State in a play-in game. And while Dybantsa has the talent and drive to single-handedly guide BYU on a deep tournament run, his team’s one of the more vulnerable top-six seeds heading into March Madness.
4. No. 13 Hofstra over No. 4 Alabama
This upset pick was already generating traction shortly after the bracket was revealed, but it has become even trendier after Aden Holloway, Alabama’s No. 2 scorer, was arrested Monday and charged with two felony drug offenses. The university said Holloway has been removed from campus and won’t be with the team while his case is investigated, making a return for Friday’s game unlikely. The Crimson Tide shoot 3s at a higher rate than anyone else in Division I, making them an explosive squad offensively, but also making them more prone to an upset on an off shooting night and without Holloway, the team leader in made 3s, things get even more precarious.
Hofstra, meanwhile, has two road wins this season against power-conference opponents, Pitt and Syracuse, and has one of the country’s top scorers in guard Cruz Davis (20.2 points per game). The Pride are also third nationally in 2-point field goal percentage defense, according to KenPom, meaning they can neutralize Alabama inside the arc and hope its attempts from deep don’t connect.
5. No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have been a top-20 team throughout the season and were a popular Final Four pick as recently as a month ago, but once All-American forward JT Toppin was lost for the season due to a torn ACL, Texas Tech’s outlook changed dramatically. Since Toppin went down, the Red Raiders are 3-4 and, making matters worse, have more injury concerns after star guard Christian Anderson suffered what appeared to be a groin injury in the Big 12 tournament (the program has said Anderson will be available for the NCAA tournament).
It’s a less-than-ideal situation heading into a matchup against a battle-tested Akron squad appearing in its fourth NCAA tournament in the past five years and boasting one of the best scorers in the country in guard Tavari Johnson (20.1 points per game). If the Zips — who have won 19 of their past 20 games and are 32nd in the country in tempo, according to KenPom — can dictate the pace of the game, watch out.
6. No. 11 SMU over No. 6 Tennessee
Like Texas-over-BYU, this is more of a matchup-dependent prediction, as Miami (Ohio) would have a much tougher time against a bigger, more talented Tennessee team should it continue its magical season with a First Four victory. SMU, though, could cause the Vols some problems. The Mustangs have one of the nation’s best backcourts in Boopie Miller, Jaron Pierre Jr. and BJ Edwards, who combine to average 49.5 points per game and could win a track meet against a Tennessee team that occasionally struggles to score.
7. No. 13 Troy over No. 4 Nebraska
Nebraska’s the only program from a power conference that has never won an NCAA tournament game, a drought that appears likely to end this year with a squad that went 26-6 in the regular season. The Cornhuskers stumbled down the stretch, though, going 6-6 in their final 12 games and could encounter some issues against a tough-minded Troy team that has a road win against San Diego State and a one-point, triple-overtime road loss to USC. This season, the Trojans are holding opponents to 31.3% on 3s, which could be a problem for a Nebraska team that makes its living beyond the arc.
8. No. 12 High Point over No. 5 Wisconsin
This one’s probably the least likely upset of all the games listed, if only because the Badgers are 15-5 since Jan. 6 and have as good of a guard tandem as there is nationally in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, who combine to average 39.6 points per game. Still, High Point is far from your typical team from a one-bid conference, with a roster reportedly worth more than $4 million. The Panthers are 30-4 and have won their past 14 games, the longest active streak in the country. If nothing else, it wouldn’t be the first time in the past few years that Wisconsin has lost as a No. 5 seed to a purple-clad mid-major in the first round of the tournament.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness upset predictions: Ranking most likely first round surprises
