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The Colorado Avalanche are known as a high-flying offensive side — understandably so — but they are also the league’s best at keeping the puck out.

Playing at home against a low-event team, my Flyers vs. Avalanche predictions expect a relatively low-scoring affair.

Let’s dive into my NHL picks for Friday, January 23.

Flyers vs Avalanche prediction

Flyers vs Avalanche best bet: Under 6.5 (-115)

The Colorado Avalanche are 20-1-4 on home soil this season and have conceded a league-low of 2.08 goals per game in Colorado.

As good as they are offensively, they’re equally as effective at controlling the puck and giving opposing teams very few chances to generate opportunities.

That should be the case in this matchup. The Philadelphia Flyers rank Bottom-12 in goals per game, and they’ve played at the league’s slowest 5-on-5 pace this season.

Philadelphia will be looking to turn this contest into a snoozefest, happy to punt on offense if it gives them a better chance of holding up defensively.

They are expected to get Dan Vladar back between the pipes for this game as well. He owns a solid .905 SV% on the season and has drastically out-performed backup Sam Ersson.

Slowing down a lethal Avalanche offense is a difficult task, but Vladar is capable of holding them to a manageable number.

These two sides have already played this season, and that game finished 3-2 with 53 total shots. Don’t be surprised if we see something similar this time around.

Flyers vs Avalanche same-game parlay

The Avalanche have won 20 of 25 home games this season. Coming off a disappointing loss to a banged up Ducks team, we should expect a good response in this spot.

Brent Burns has teed off without Devon Toews in the lineup. He is averaging 3.5 shots on 6.3 attempts and has cleared this line in seven of eight, including seven in a row.

Burns also had three shots on seven attempts against Philadelphia back in December.

Flyers vs Avalanche SGP

• Under 6.5
• Avalanche moneyline
• Brent Burns Over 2.5 shots on goal

Flyers vs Avalanche odds

• Moneyline: Flyers +240 | Avalanche -300
• Puck Line: Flyers +1.5 (-105) | Avalanche -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115)

Flyers vs Avalanche trend

The Avalanche have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 25 games at home (+8.75 Units / 14% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Avalanche.

How to watch Flyers vs Avalanche

Flyers vs Avalanche latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

It may not have been their best overall performance of the season so far, but the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-2 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday night is certainly high on the rankings. They had every reason to lose that game just simply based on the schedule and the matchup.

The Oilers have dunked on the Penguins pretty much every time they have played them over the past four or five years, the Oilers were rested, the Penguins were playing the second half of a back-to-back and their fourth game in six days, they are three games into an extended road trip and they did not have one of their top defenseman in the lineup (Kris Letang). They were also playing their backup goalie.

When the week began I had that game penciled in as a loss just based on all of that. Not only did the Penguins win, they did to the Oilers what the Oilers have recently done to the Penguins and just dunked all over them. They gave up some chances, but Arturs Silovs was great and the Penguins feasted on their former goalie (Tristan Jarry). Anthony Mantha scored two goals, Evgeni Malkin showed he still has the juice, and Egor Chinakhov scored another goal on a shot so ridiculous nobody even saw it actually go into the net.

It has the Penguins in the second spot of the Metropolitan Division after 50 games and starting to very much look like a playoff team. Not just in the results, but also in the process behind the results.

They have a top-10 points percentage in the NHL, tied for the fifth-best in the Eastern Conference and are only two points back (with a game in hand) of the fourth-best team in the Eastern Conference.

They are also a top-10 team league-wide in pretty much every underlying 5-on-5 metric when it comes expected goals and scoring chances, while also consistently improving their overall defensive metrics.

If it looks like a duck, and if it quacks like a duck….

This is all important to keep in mind because the Penguins have just 11 games before the 2025-26 NHL Trade Deadline, and general manager Kyle Dubas and his staff have to be having a lot of discussions right now. Not only about potential trades, but also simply what their overall plan is going to be.

Buy? Sell? Stick to the plan? All of the above? It is going to be fascinating to watch.

Just for laughs, here is where the Penguins have been (and ranked) after 50 games over the past eight seasons in terms of their place in the league standings, and their overall ranks in 5-on-5 goal differential, expected goal share, scoring chance share, high-danger scoring chance share and expected goals against per 60 minutes.

This is the Penguins best record and best placement in the standings since the 2021-22 season, which was also their most recent Stanley Cup Playoff appearance. It is also one of the few times over the past eight years where they have consistently been in the top-10 across all of the scoring chance and expected goal metrics. They are 13 points ahead of where they were at this point a year ago and significantly better in terms of where they rank in their underlying metrics. The 2023-24 team had similar rankings in those metrics, but were not getting the same results and were eight points back of the current pace. That team missed the playoffs by just three points. They are two points ahead of the 2022-23 pace, but that team was much worse with its process. That team missed the playoffs by one point.

This team does not just simply have a better record than their most recent teams. It is also playing better. Significantly so.

This is not a Stanley Cup contending team right now. Not this season. It might be a pretty good team. It is starting to look like it is a pretty good team. Even during that losing streak back in December they were still carrying and controlling games for the most part. They have certainly left some points on the table, and that might end up looming large, but they have also picked up a lot of points. There is a lot to be said for that response. There is a lot to be said for how they have played, how they are playing and perhaps more importantly, how (and where) they are improving.

The forward group has no real weaknesses. There is not a single line you do not want to see on the ice at any point in any game. They can roll four lines and keep controlling the game with any of them. The goaltending has been inconsistent at times, but winnable. Erik Karlsson is playing the way they expected Erik Karlsson to play when they originally traded for him a few years ago.

So how do the Penguins play this over the next month-and-a-half? There is obviously going to be a wait-and-see element to this and how those 11 games go. The most sensible approach is stay the course and let these guys show what they have. Whatever happens, you have a full season sampling here and can make your adjustments and changes as needed in the offseason.

Mantha is going to be the curious case because I always imagined he was signed with the intention of being this year’s Anthony Beauvillier. Cheap contract, hope for some production in the top-six of the lineup, then flip him at the trade deadline in March for some additional future assets. He has been better and way more productive than Beauvillier, and should not only bring a comparable return (a second-round pick), but perhaps even more given how much more he has produced. He is also the big-body presence that NHL general managers love at this time of year. Trading him could also open up a roster spot for one of the young kids in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton right now like Rutger McGroarty or Ville Koivunen.

If this group keeps playing the way they are, however, it would be difficult to disrupt that. They deserve a chance to take a kick at the can and see what happens.

The Penguins still have more draft capital, and especially in the first three rounds, than any other team in the NHL over the next three-or-four years. They could certainly use more of those assets, but it is also not a huge necessity.

Strategic buying is certainly within reason. The Penguins should not trade anything significant for a short-term rental, but if you can find a player that has long-term value beyond this season, that should be in play.

Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson has been the big name kicked around given his contract status, and the Penguins certainly have the salary cap space to pay him what he wants in the future, but that does not seem like a trade deadline move. That is an offseason move. The option for that discussion will almost certainly still be there then when Dallas might be more inclined (or likely) to make a move involving him.

The ideal trade option would be trying to find a young defenseman (or some sort of young high-level talent) that has upside and term/team control remaining. Depending on the player, the contract and the upside, I would not be opposed to being aggressive if it is a true hockey trade. The Penguins have salary cap space and assets to move, and given how active Dubas and the Penguins have been over the past year-and-a-half I can not imagine they are going to just sit and do nothing.

Even if it requires a young forward or one of those draft picks, if you can find somebody that fills that need you should not ignore it. Even if the cost is high. As long as it is a hockey trade and fits in to the long-term plan, it can work.

With that in mind, I am going to say something controversial here: I do not think the first-round pick should be off the table *in the right move.*

There should be lottery conditions attached to it. It should only be for a player that fits for multiple seasons. Do not trade that pick for a rental. That would be outrageously stupid. But keep something in mind here: If the Penguins do end up as a playoff team, that first-round pick is going to be in the back half of the round. The Penguins still have that Winnipeg Jets second-round draft pick that is very likely to be very high in the second-round. At that point the difference between, let’s say, pick No. 22-25, and perhaps pick No. 34, is not overly significant. You also still have plenty of assets to potentially move up from that spot high in the second-round if you needed or wanted.

Even thinking about moving that pick is obviously only something you do for somebody in their early-mid-20s, and somebody that is a high level player. That is a difficult trade to find, and chances are you will not find it, but it is definitely something to keep an eye out for given where the team is, where the pick could end up being. and what you still have to work with in terms of assets. This is why stockpiling assets the way Dubas has is so important. It gives you flexibility. It gives you options. The Penguins certainly have a lot of them. This will be fascinating to watch.

Will Smith is enjoying a strong sophomore campaign. He has 31 points through 36 games, trailing only superstar Macklin Celebrini in points per contest among Sharks.

My Rangers vs. Sharks predictions expect Smith to further build on those totals at home against a struggling New York team.

Let’s dive into my NHL picks for Friday, January 23.

Rangers vs Sharks prediction

Rangers vs Sharks best bet:Will Smith Over 0.5 points (-140)

Will Smith has hit the scoresheet at least once in 56% of his appearances this season. He’s done his best work with the San Jose Sharks, picking up a point in 65% of his games and 10 of the past 13.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic Smith’s home success will continue vs. the New York Rangers.

They are without star goaltender Igor Shesterkin as well as top defenseman Adam Fox. Predictably, they have bled goals as a result.

New York has conceded 49 goals over the past 10 games, slotting them dead last in the NHL with plenty of room to spare.

Isolating the seven games since Shesterkin joined Fox on the sidelines, the Rangers have conceded 39 goals. That’s an average of 5.57 per.

The Sharks possess a solid offense more than capable of exploiting teams that can’t keep the puck out, especially when goaltending is a big reason why.

They rank 4th in the NHL in shooting percentage and have averaged 3.62 goals per game against Bottom-10 teams in goals against.

Playing on the top line and No. 1 power play alongside a Hart Trophy candidate in Macklin Celebrini, Smith is primed to produce.

Rangers vs Sharks same-game parlay

Celebrini hasn’t scored in six consecutive games, his longest drought of the season. Four of those came against playoff teams, though, and two exceptions were the back-to-back Stanley Cup winners and the Washington Capitals, who finished second in points last year.

This is a much more advantageous matchup for Celebrini. It’s also worth noting he has scored 10 goals through 13 games working on two days of rest this season.

Going the other way, Alexis Lafreniere has multiple shots in 12 of 17 games vs. Bottom-10 shot suppression teams. He also cleared 1.5 shots in seven of the past eight when playing on a line with Artemi Panarin.

Rangers vs Sharks SGP

• Will Smith Over 0.5 points
• Macklin Celebrini anytime goal
• Alexis Lafreniere Over 1.5 shots

Rangers vs Sharks odds

• Moneyline: New York -105 | San Jose -115
• Puck Line: New York +1.5 (-250) | San Jose -1.5 (+205)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110)

Rangers vs Sharks trend

Will Smith has 12 points through 10 meetings with Bottom-10 teams in points allowed to forwards. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Sharks.

How to watch Rangers vs Sharks

Rangers vs Sharks latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

Joined by Skates at the Stakes’ AJ DeVito, we remember defenseman Robin Salo, who never seemed to get a real chance with the Islanders and then disappeared without a trace.

Many sports fans have their favorite “pet prospects” that they root for to make it in the pros. Not only does AJ count Robin Salo as his favorite draft pick, he was the reason AJ became an Islanders fan in the first place. Highly touted by respected prospect watchers, Salo seemed to have all the tools to become an NHL regular. When he finally got to Long Island, all of that promise went unfilled as he got little playing time over the course of a few years. He would have flashes of talent then disappear for months due to healthy scratches and demotions to lovely Bridgeport. Once Salo finally left the Islanders to sign overseas, it felt like we barely knew him.

AJ tells us about his connection to and affinity for Salo, and we break down the mysteries surrounding him and how it all got so strange. Of course, we also examine the pairing of Robin Salo and Sebastian Aho, two guys who played the same position the same way on the same team and often felt like the same person. Along the way, AJ makes a bold prediction about Salo’s future that we’ll be interested to see come true.

Thanks again to AJ for coming on, and be sure to listen to he, Ryan and Jake at Skates at the Stakes.

WEIRD BONUS MATERIAL

• Of all the Islanders prospects to get spotlighted by Scott Wheeler in his series on “The Gifted,” I don’t think anyone would have guessed Robin Salo would be one. And yet…
• Maybe ol’ Scott was on to something. Salo made a big leap with Orebro of Liiga in Finland and got his ELC with the Islanders locked down. He would end up being one of the Infamous Innominate Islanders to play in the first ever game at UBS Arena.
• Salo’s first NHL goal came in a game against the Flyers on ESPN (Warning: contains slight amounts of John Buccigross).

• In 2022, Salo had a quality preseason and looked to be a good fit for the big club. He even scored two goals in an early season blowout over Anaheim.

• And then…it got weird. He was healthy scratched a bunch, was installed as a starter with Adam Pelech hurt, then was sent to the AHL for the rest of the season. It wasn’t great for his development or his feelings about living in Bridgeport, where he spent all of the 23-24 season.
• In June of 2024, Salo signed with Malmo of the SHL in Sweden. His fall in the Islanders’ eyes was quick and seemed to be a disappointment for everyone.Coaches wanted to see more and weren’t getting it, and Salo was passed by other depth D-men like Weird Islanders Parker Wotherspoon and Sam Bolduc, and his Swedish counterpart Sebastain Aho.
• It sounds like he’d welcome a return to the NHL in the right situation.

What makes a “Weird Islander?”

We’re always open to suggestions about other Weird Islanders to discuss. Remember the criteria. Candidates must fulfill one of the two of the following:

• Played one (1) season or less for the Islanders or very short stints over multiple seasons.
• Be a veteran NHLer who is not generally associated with his time on Islanders.

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The Calgary Flames will look to snap a two-game losing skid with the reeling Washington Capitals visiting the Scotiabank Saddledome on Friday, January 23.

With Washington needing to tighten up defensively, and Calgary a stringy first-period team on home ice, my top NHL picks and Capitals vs. Flames predictions are calling for a low-scoring first 20 minutes tonight. 

Capitals vs Flames prediction

Capitals vs Flames best bet: First period Under 1.5 (+105)

The Calgary Flames have allowed the second-fewest goals per home game (2.42) while sporting the seventh-highest team save percentage at five-on-five.

Calgary has also been particularly strong defensively in the first period with just 12 goals allowed across 24 home games.

It’s been a huge reason the first-period Under has cashed in 16 of the last 25 games at the Saddledome dating back to last season.

I’m also expecting to see the Washington Capitals attempt to batten down the hatches tonight.

The Caps have allowed 17 goals during their four-game losing streak, so with the Flames scoring the eighth-fewest first period goals (0.76 per game), look for the first 20 minutes to fly by with limited high-danger scoring chances for either tonight.

Capitals vs Flames same-game parlay

The Caps have allowed the third-most shots per game while ranking 28th in Corsi for percentage at 5-on-5 out of the holiday break, and wingers Yegor Sharangovich and Connor Zary have both been consistent shooters of late.

Sharangovich has two or more shots in each of his past four games for 11 total on 22 attempts, and Zary has at least a pair of shots in six of his past eight with a team-high 22 shots on 31 attempts.

Capitals vs Flames SGP

• First period Under 1.5
• Yegor Sharangovich Over 1.5 shots on goal
• Connor Zary Over 1.5 shots on goal

Capitals vs Flames odds

• Moneyline: Washington -135 | Calgary +110
• Puck Line: Washington -1.5 (+180) | Calgary +1.5 (-220)
• Over/Under: Over 6 (-110) | Under 6 (-110)

Capitals vs Flames trend

The first-period total has gone Under the number in 16 of the past 25 games at the Scotiabank Saddledome (+6.50 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Flames.

How to watch Capitals vs Flames

Capitals vs Flames latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

Evgeni Malkin has been crystal clear in his comments to the media about two two subjects this season that he’s openly talked about, at times unprompted.

1. He doesn’t want this 2025-26 season to be his last in the NHL
2. He doesn’t want to leave the Pittsburgh Penguins for a different team

There’s been nothing in the way of smokescreens or subtext with the messaging. What you see is what you get. Malkin has mostly gotten his way professionally in the last 20 years but the team hasn’t been as quick to get on that page.

Kyle Dubas and company have slow-played the situation. Dealing with a 20-year franchise legend can be a delicate process, as seen in Malkin’s last contract negotiation in 2022 where it took until the 11th hour to get an agreement for a four-year contract that the team almost reluctantly handed to him.

Pittsburgh’s stance this time around was understandable. Malkin will turn 40 this year, he was coming off his worst full season in 2024-25, producing only 50 points in 68 games. He’s had a couple of knee surgeries. That’s not a case where a team is going to rush into a signing, especially one like the Pens who have a stated goal to get younger. There wasn’t any movement on the contract this summer. Dubas addressed the matter at the start of training camp:

“He’s in a great mood every day,” Dubas said. “No change on [the contract] front. I spoke with him and [agent J.P. Barry] in the summer when stuff started percolating there. At the time in every one of their careers, I’ll sit when time permits….The [Olympic] break provides a key opportunity for that…I expect him to have a great season.”

With that stance, it shouldn’t be overlooked that Dubas essentially added to the list of his recent accomplishments in a subtle way by stoking the competitive fires in Malkin. That shows a crafty impact as a manager to go beyond a major trade or free agent move to enhance performance. Sometimes pulling a lever like “go have a great season and we’ll touch base with your agent at the Olympics after we see how things are looking” can help a team as much as anything. Dubas didn’t rush to re-sign Malkin, yet he also didn’t close the door completely either. He just made Malkin do the work to walk through it.

It was a challenge Malkin took to heart, accepted and has made his mission to complete. Despite missing time with a shoulder injury, he has been sensational this season when he’s been in the lineup to the tune of 39 points in 35 games, often performing as one of the best players on the ice on any given night.

Those performances included last night’s 6-2 win over Edmonton where Malkin produced a goal and an assist. He playfully shrugged off retirement notions again:

“I never say I want to retire. It’s all you. I feel great, and I like how we play. It’s always fun to win.”

It’s not difficult to see the goal constantly in mind to not have this year be his final one has inspired Malkin. He’s played his normal center position, then willingly shifted to the wing while jokingly volunteering to line up at defense or even goalie if that was what it took for the team to be successful.

Turns out his forward position has more than sufficed. Any doubts on whether or not he’s still got it were emphatically wiped away last night in the sequence where Malkin poked the puck away from no less than Connor McDavid, took off down the ice (despite being at the end of a shift lasting 1:20) and scoring on the breakaway.

Malkin would continue in the post-game:

“But I hope you see…it’s not easy. I try to do my best because I knew I wanted to play one more year. I want to show I’m still a good player. I want everybody to see that I can play next year. It’s my goal right now.”

At this point it ought to be an open and shut case. Pittsburgh is going into the offseason with over $50 million in salary cap space. It doesn’t truly matter to anything beyond the bottom line whether they pay him $5, 10 or $15 million next season, they can easily fit him at any price (though here’s betting an extension will be closer to the lower-end of that spectrum).

Malkin’s season has been an inspired effort to prove himself all over again, to meet a challenge and earn a spot with the Pens in 2026-27. He’s passed those tests with flying colors. The NHL’s Olympic break starts in two weeks, it’s almost time for Dubas and the Pens to hold up their end of the bargain and reward the icon with a well-earned ticket to play in Pittsburgh next season.

The Chicago Blackhawks host the Tampa Bay Lightning on ESPN to kick off tonight’s NHL slate.

Tampa Bay is the hottest team in hockey, and my Lightning vs. Blackhawks predictions expect this trend to continue.

Read on for my NHL picks for Friday, January 23.

Lightning vs Blackhawks prediction

Lightning vs Blackhawks best bet: Lightning -1.5 (-105)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won 13 of their past 14 games, with 10 of those victories coming by at least two goals. Not only do the Bolts enter this matchup in stronger form, but they are also more rested, having not played since Tuesday’s 4-1 win over the San Jose Sharks.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Blackhawks enter this contest on the second half of a back-to-back that included travel from North Carolina to Illinois. With Spencer Knight having started the previous night, Chicago is expected to turn to backup goaltender Arvid Soderblom.

Soderblom has struggled mightily this season, posting a 5-8-1 record with an .868 save percentage and a 3.97 goals-against average.

Across the ice, Andrei Vasilevskiy is slated to start for Tampa Bay. Entering this matchup in dominant form, Vasilevskiy is 9-0-1 over his past 10 starts with a .926 save percentage and a 1.66 goals-against average.

The Lightning are also the superior team across the board, outranking Chicago in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), and expected goal share.

Lightning vs Blackhawks same-game parlay

Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel looks to keep his hot hand going against his former team. Hagel has scored seven goals over his past eight games.

Meanwhile, linemate Nikita Kucherov also enters this contest in strong form, having scored five goals over the same stretch.

Lightning vs Blackhawks SGP

• Lightning -1.5
• Brandon Hagel anytime goalscorer
• Nikita Kucherov anytime goalscorer

Lightning vs Blackhawks odds

• Moneyline: Lightning -250 | Blackhawks +205
• Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+105) | Blackhawks +1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+115) | Under 6.5 (-135)

Lightning vs Blackhawks trend

Tampa Bay has won 13 of its past 14 games, with 10 of those wins coming by at least a two-goal margin. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Blackhawks.

How to watch Lightning vs Blackhawks

Lightning vs Blackhawks latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here