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Good left-handed pitching is something no team will ever turn down, and at this year’s deadline, the Yankees could benefit from exactly that. While the Padres are not necessarily out of the playoff hunt, any divisional hopes are all but gone, and sitting below .500 at this juncture with five teams ahead of them for the last Wild Card spot in the Senior Circuit, it may be in their best interest to sell.

Dominant closer Mason Miller is obviously the star attraction in the bullpen. But with three full years of team control after 2026 and reasonable hopes of contending again next year, San Diego does not necessarily have to move him unless they’re blown away by an offer akin at least within shouting distance of what they gave the A’s for Miller last year.

He’s not the only standout reliever in their ’pen though. Adrian Morejon could be a prime candidate to join the Yankees. The once highly-touted prospect out of Cuba has settled into a relief role, and has thrived over the last few seasons. With free agency looming this winter, the Padres could shop the 27-year-old lefty as a rental, shipping him out to a contending team in need.

2026 Statistics (Thus Far): 48 games, 55.1 IP, 8-2 W-L, 1 save, 3.25 ERA (127 ERA+), 2.40 FIP, 2.47 xFIP, 27.9% K%, 6.2% BB%, 1.10 WHIP, 1.8 fWAR, 0.8 rWAR

2026 ZiPS Rest-of-Season Statistics: 24 games, 24.0 IP, 3-2 W-L, 3.21 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 25.8% K%, 7.4% BB%, 0.6 fWAR

Between 2024 and ‘25, Morejon pitched in 135 games, managing an impressive 2.42 ERA with a 2.52 FIP that backed it up. Although his role may not be what was expected in his minor-league days, he’s turned himself into a durable and reliably good option out of the bullpen.

In 2026 to this point, he’s been just about as good. Getting plenty of work, pitching in 48 games and working over 55 innings, the lefty has maintained a steady 2.40 FIP and is striking out more batters than he ever has, at a 27.9 percent clip. With a walk rate that has remained steady, Morejon has essentially been at peak form for the last three seasons while taking on a significant workload out of relief.

The start to Morejon’s career was not a seamless one, as he pitched just 75 innings with an ERA north of five in his first five combined seasons in the majors, including three different seasons where he stuck around for less than 10 innings of work. That 2023 season was a major leap for the lefty, however, and he hasn’t looked back since. With a multi-year track record of success now behind him, he becomes an attractive trade target at this year’s deadline, and one that may not break the bank, considering his forthcoming free agency.

The lefty throws hard, and boasts impressive peripherals across the board, so stretches of real dominance are never out of the question. He’d be a major boost to any bullpen, and the Yankees are no different. With Tim Hill largely disappointing in 2026, Morejon could pair nicely with Brent Headrick, who’s been terrific from the left side for the Yankees this season. Even regardless of pitching hands, Morejon is simply an impact arm to bring out of the ‘pen, and if the Yankees look to that area to improve at the deadline, he could make some sense.

He has been linked as a possible target for the Yankees, and the Padres make sense as natural trade partners at this year’s deadline. San Diego may be poised to move multiple relievers before August 3rd rolls around, and Morejon would make sense for any team looking to bolster the bullpen. His four-pitch mix has proven successful in his role, and next to the otherworldly Miller, the lefty would be a much cheaper option. With Morejon’s velocity and swing-and-miss stuff all moving in the right direction, he has a solid chance of being a true impact arm if put in the right position.

Morejon is now in the midst of a third straight year of high-level pitching out of the San Diego bullpen, and with 2026 being his final year before hitting the open market, he will more than likely be on the move at the deadline. He’d be of use to any Major League roster, and if the price is right, the Yankees may pull the trigger on the talented lefty.

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The underdog Chicago Cubs (+113) can earn a series victory when they face the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 3 of their three-game series at PNC Park.

Braxton Ashcroft's underlying metrics are shaky, and my Cubs vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks expect a Cubs sweep today, 

Who will win Cubs vs Pirates today: Cubs moneyline (+114)

The markets are pricing this game off Jameson Taillon's 5.41 xERA and 1st-percentile barrel rate, but three factors point the other way.

Braxton Ashcraft relies on chase (37.2%, 96th percentile), yet he draws a Chicago Cubs lineup that rarely expands the zone and owns an 11% walk rate the past two weeks.

Taillon's fly-ball profile is better protected at PNC Park, especially with Pete Crow-Armstrong's +20 Outs Above Average patrolling center, while the Pittsburgh Piratescorner outfield defense sits at a combined -8 OAA.

Add in a Pirates lineup that chases enough to feed Taillon's sweeper, and I play the Cubs to -105 today.

COVERS INTEL: Ashcraft's four-seam fastball is his most-used pitch at 31.9 percent, and it's been hit for a .290 average, .519 slugging, and a .330 xwOBA with a negative run value.

Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-116)

It will be warm and dry for the first pitch, and both starters are hittable. Taillon carries a 14.4% barrel rate with 22 home runs in 72 innings and rarely sees the sixth inning.

Ashcraft has served up eight home runs in his last five starts and allows a 90.5 mph average exit velocity and meets a Cubs lineup walking 12.4 percent over the past two weeks.

That puts this in the bullpen's hands early, and Pittsburgh's relievers have walked 10.4% over the same stretch after emptying out Saturday night.

Scoring runs is what these teams do when they meet, as the Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games. I’d play this to -130.

Cubs vs Pirates weather

Warm and dry with light winds blowing out to right field. 

Cubs vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Cubs +108 | Pirates -117
• Run line: Cubs +1.5 (-186) | Pirates -1.5 (+163)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (+104)

Cubs vs Pirates trend

The Over is 7-3 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.

How to watch Cubs vs Pirates and game info

Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries

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The Dodgers are looking to end their road trip with a record of 7-2, and they’ll be treated with a pleasant surprise once they begin their upcoming homestand on July 28.

Kiké Hernández has played just two games this season, but he will be back on Tuesday against the Seattle Mariners after missing two months due to an oblique issue. Closer Edwin Díaz, who has pitched just six innings this season, will be activated on Wednesday after missing over three months due elbow surgery to remove loose bodies. Both updates were reported by David Vassegh of AM 570 on Saturday.

Hernández has appeared in five games with the Oklahoma City Comets during his current rehab assignment, going 6-18 with a home run, while Díaz has accumulated one inning over two appearances with Oklahoma City.

Links

Dodgers fans were disappointed by the first half results from Kyle Tucker, as the outfielder limped into the All-Star break with just seven home runs while slashing .244/.341/.375. His opening to the second half wasn’t any prettier over the six games against the Yankees and Phillies, but he has found his groove at the plate against the Mets.

Tucker had the deciding home run on Friday in a 4-2 win, and he started the scoring on Saturday with another home run, the first time he’s hit home runs in two consecutive games as a Dodger. Tucker spoke with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports following the Dodgers’ 4-3 win over New York, where he discussed the struggles he’s faced this year while acknowledging the support he’s received from his teammates and staff.

“Our coaching staff and the players that we have on this team is unbelievable. Everyone is so supportive of each other and just wanting each other to help. It’s a team sport, and we want to get to the end of the season and win a World Series.”

Shohei Ohtani was scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Saturday, but lingering issues in his left knee flared up and the two-way superstar is now shut down from throwing.

Dave Roberts expects Ohtani to return to pitching during the regular season, but the team will not move forward with his throwing once he is 100 percent clear to continue, notes Bill Ladson of MLB.com.

“We are not going to move forward [as far as throwing off a mound] until he feels 100 percent confident and we feel 100 percent confident that we should do it,” Roberts said. “He just doesn’t feel 100 percent. I think the last ‘pen that he had, there was a little bit of regression. We want to make sure that doesn’t happen again.”

Some people don’t need an introduction.

Joe Torre, for one.

You know him. Baseball icon. Hall of Famer. The only big leaguer with 2,000 hits as a player and 2,000 wins as a manager, he steered the New York Yankees to four World Series championships — and the Dodgers to consecutive National League West crowns and NLCS appearances in 2008 and 2009.

So you’re well-versed on Torre’s baseball bonafides, but you might not be aware of the most meaningful part of his legacy: He’s spent the past 24 years helping people who actually would need to be introduced to him.

Kids who are too young to know Torre the player, manager, color commentator — but who can, unfortunately, relate with what he went through when he was their age. Kids who, like him, are growing up afraid and anxious because of domestic violence at home, and who need what Torre didn’t have — somewhere safe to go to for help.

Since 2002, Torre and his wife, Ali, have been behind the expanding the Joe Torre Safe at Home Foundation. Across the nation, they’ve set up safe spaces in schools, specialized classrooms that feel more like living rooms and that are manned by professional counselors trained in domestic violence intervention.

They’re at schools in New York, Cincinnati, Tahiti and in L.A., at Bellflower Middle/High School and John Adams Middle School, John H. Glenn High and McKinley Elementary School, Palisades Charter High, Santa Monica High, Waite Middle School and Washington Preparatory High.

And they’re open to all, whether you’re a kid experiencing violence or you want to be able to help peers who are.

This past year, the foundation says it reached more than 28,000 students. And since it began, more than 425,000 young people, families, schools, and communities.

These Safe at Home spaces are all named “Margaret’s Place,” in honor of Joe’s mom, who was for years the victim of his father’s violent ire.

“It’s a tough subject to talk about,” Joe Torre said. “But you can’t run away from it.”

He did, though. He’s 85 now, but until he was 54, Torre didn’t reveal that baseball had been his refuge when he was growing up. He didn’t tell anyone that when he was a kid, if he saw his dad’s car in front of his house, Joe would go to a friend’s house and wait until he left for his job as a New York police detective. Joe didn’t share memories like he would later, of seeing his big sister, armed with a knife, standing between their mother and their father, who was going for his pistol.

He didn’t recognize what those traumatic experiences he’d tried to bury did to him, not until he started to talk about them.

“I thought I was born with this shyness and this nervousness,” Torre said before a Dodgers game in May, when the club introduced him and Ali and players and coaches wore T-shirts during batting practice that read: “Everyone deserves to be safe at home.”

“During my playing career,” Torre continued, “if we lost a game and I didn’t get any hits, I’d beat myself up. I was fortunate, I had a good career, but there was always something missing. I really probably could have enjoyed it a lot more than I did.”

That didn’t change until 1995, when he started talking about the domestic violence he experienced. He was surprised, he said, to find himself sharing his story, opening up for the first time at a “Life Success” seminar in Cincinnati, Ali’s hometown.

“Ali, she says, ‘You want to go to this Life Success symposium with me?’” Joe said. “And she’s eight months pregnant with our daughter and I’m not about to say no to anything she asks me to go. So we go in and they separate you, and they put you in groups of six strangers — and I’d just been named manager of the Yankees, so I’m very self-conscious.

“But after a day or so, you’re in it, you know? And then we went home and I called my sisters and asked them questions. Because they always tried to protect me, so I had to drag it out of them … ‘Did dad hit mom?’

“The biggest thing for me was knowing that my dad bringing fear down on the home was what caused my feelings that I was embarrassed to have. Once I went through that, I was able to go deeper.”

Speaking about what was previously unspeakable helped him cope with his trauma. He said it made him a more empathetic manager and a more confident man. It also made him want to speak out publicly and to encourage others to do the same, to break the cycle of silence.

So they’re getting the word out at — where else? — ballparks. There was the stop at Dodger Stadium in May, and before that, in 2025, seven major league teams had activations at games, as did 63 minor league clubs who hosted a “Safe At Home Awareness Game.”

Because often we do need an introduction, to connect kids with people who can keep them safe, who can assure them they’re not the only ones in their position.

“He’s talked about this many times: If he had access to a program like Margaret’s Place, he wouldn’t have felt like he had to carry this burden alone,” said Rose Robles, the foundation’s senior director of programs. “That was one thing he’s really stressed, he felt he was the only one that was going through this.

“And he would have had some options, some choices for how to respond to what he was experiencing and how to understand it. One thing that we say is that violence thrives in silence, and that is basically what he was experiencing.”

Forty-four percent of the kids Margaret’s Place counselors helped in 2024-25 were dealing with some form of violence at home. Twenty-seven percent have experienced some form of relationship or dating violence. They also help kids who’ve been exposed to community violence or other traumatic events, or who are grieving a traumatic loss.

At Bellflower Middle and High School, Principal Jessica Cummings said a Teen Dating Violence Awareness Week and parent workshops focused on fostering healthy relationships increased awareness on her campus.

“We are grateful,” she wrote in an email, “for this partnership and the positive impact it has had.”

Of the students surveyed after receiving services, Safe at Home indicated that 99% reported feeling safer and 93% said they used the tools they learned in counseling.

Torre has absorbed decades of anecdotal feedback too — the knowing nods he sees in the crowd when he’s talked to groups of kids about this, the cameraman who slipped him $20 to put toward the foundation, the interviewer who shared his account of having grown up in a violent household.

“Anyone can become a victim,” Ali Torre said, “Our goal is to intervene and prevent. There are little boys we can have conversations with: ‘You don’t have to repeat the cycle.’ To little girls, ‘There’s an option for you…’

“And Joe has opened a lot of doors for us.”

When you think of Joe Torre, it’s as a former Dodgers skipper. A nine-time All-Star and the 1971 National League Most Valuable Player.

You should also think of him as a champion of children who now know that they aren’t alone, and that they have people who will go to bat for them.

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Today’s Reflections

I don’t want to run through the play-by-play, as Al has covered it all thoroughly. But I’d be remiss:

Matthew Boyd — it wasn’t pretty or dominant, but all that matters is that he (and the defense) got out of jams, and the important two numbers: one run allowed over seven innings. What a battler!

Ian Happ — The throw on the double play from left was money, and the slide at home in the 10th was epic.

Nico Hoerner — I’ve gotten in the bad habit (I guess understandably) of allowing a lot of Nico’s plays make me think of Ryno. But there are exceptions, like the throw between the legs to first earlier this year. And Friday night’s play behind second and snap throw to third to get the runner — that was beyond elite. I don’t really think Ryno would have pulled off that combination during the play. Yet another play of the year by Nico?

PCA got the Cubs on the board. And good job directing Happ to slide to the inside of the plate.

Dansby Swanson’s single got the first run in the 10th. Honorable mention to Seiya Suzuki for the bases-loaded walk that turned out to be the difference in the game.

And Gavin Hollowell picked up his second career save Friday. With the insurance run, he concentrated on the three outs needed, not the placed runner on second. Three outs on five pitches. Hard to beat that.

Not much offense, but thanks to Boyd, he kept the Cubs in the game by going deep into the game by allowing just one run. And for Hollowell for slamming the door.

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

Friday’s Game Stories:

• John Perrotto (MLB.com): Boyd backed up by stellar defense to stay unbeaten in 10 straight starts. “Dansby Swanson hit a two-out, go-ahead single in the 10th inning, and Matthew Boyd had a strong start and remained unbeaten since losing on Opening Day.”

• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Game-saving defense fires up Cubs in thick of division race: ‘We’re at that point … every game matters’. “A couple of run-saving defensive plays proved the difference in the Cubs’ victory Friday, showing what this defensive-oriented group is capable of as it tries to chase down the Brewers in the NL Central race.”

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago Cubs flash leather to back Matthew Boyd’s strong start in 3-2, 10-inning win vs. Pittsburgh Pirates. “Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner each delivered a key defensive play that helped Matthew Boyd and the Chicago Cubs hold off the Pittsburgh Pirates for a 3-2 win in 10 innings Friday.”

More Trade Talk:

• Tyler Edmunds (OnTapSportsNet): Why Kevin Gausman Might Be the Perfect Trade Deadline Target for the Cubs. “Kevin Gausman could be just what the Cubs are looking for to add to a starting rotation that could use the help.”
• Elias Schuster (Chicago Cubs On SI): Is a Cubs Trade Looming After Ballesteros, Alcantara Share Cryptic Messages? “Two Chicago Cubs prospects (and trade chips) raised eyebrows on Friday after posting to their social media accounts.”
• Matt Sullivan (The Sporting News): Cubs trade deadline prediction with Mets lands three pitchers in fascinating deal. “These three pitchers would certainly help the Cubs, as they’re some of the best pitching trade targets available this summer at the MLB trade deadline.”
• Brandon Glick (Cubbies Crib): Pirates’ roster crunch may have just opened door for Cubs to land bullpen savior. “The reclamation project to end all reclamation projects.”
• Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Matt Shaw Could Resume Swinging Soon, James Triantos Staying Present as Deadline Looms. “We know the Cubs are in the market for pitching help, both in the rotation and the bullpen, as the trade deadline approaches. We also know that they’ve got a pool of young, versatile position players from which to deal.”
• Tyler Courtney (LastWordOnSports): Cubs Top Trade Assets Heading Into the 2026 Trade Deadline. “It is never easy to part ways with players who become fan favorites, but it is a necessary price to pay. Luckily, there is a wide variety of players at both the Major and Minor League levels who could be dealt.”
• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic {$}): What we’re hearing about Matt Shaw and James Triantos as Cubs plan for trade deadline. “Matt Shaw will not be activated off the injured list before the Aug. 3 trade deadline, Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell confirmed Friday, setting another variable for the club’s plans to bulk up its pitching staff.”
• Anthony Kerr (DaWindyCity): Cubs will need to look elsewhere for bullpen help following Red Sox decision. “Chicago’s chance to potentially reunite with an old friend now seems impossible following Boston’s 15 game win streak.”
• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Cubs pitching prospect scratched in move that raises trade deadline eyebrows. “Something to see here?”

Assorted Stories:

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago Cubs prospect James Triantos savoring 1st big-league call-up: ‘It’s really cool to be here’. “It took a little time and effort, but prospect James Triantos was “super surprised, super happy” when learning of his first call-up to the Chicago Cubs this week.“
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Michael Conforto thriving as Cubs’ pinch hitter extraordinaire: ‘I don’t really know how he does that’. “Conforto, added during spring training, has adopted a do-anything attitude despite his track record as a major-league veteran, impressing behind the scenes along with his excellent numbers as a pinch hitter.”
• Howard Woodard (LastWordOnSports): Cardinals’ Slow Start to 2nd Half Makes Divisional Stretch Crucial. “Dropping five of their first seven games after the All-Star break, the St. Louis Cardinals’ slow start to the second half has heightened the circumstances now that the team has returned to St. Louis.”

Food For Thought:

Norman Jeffrey Healey (March 25, 1966 – March 2, 2008) was a Canadian blues, rock and jazz guitarist, singer and songwriter who attained popularity in the 1980s and 1990s. When he was almost one year old, Healey lost his sight due to retinoblastoma, a rare cancer of the eyes. His eyes had to be surgically removed, and he was given ocular prostheses.

Healey began playing guitar when he was three, developing his unique style of playing the instrument flat on his lap. When he was 15, Healey formed the band Blue Direction, a four-piece that primarily played bar-band cover tunes. Shortly thereafter he was introduced to bassist Joe Rockman and drummer Tom Stephen, with whom he formed a trio, the Jeff Healey Band. They received a write-up in Toronto’s NOW magazine, and soon were playing almost nightly in local clubs, such as Grossman’s Tavern and the famed blues club Albert’s Hall (where Jeff Healey was discovered by guitarists Stevie Ray Vaughan and Albert Collins).

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

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We have a 15-game MLB slate for today that will surely keep us interested throughout the day.

Our Sunday MLB moneyline card is filled with solid plus-money markets, and a few short favorites that we will attack. 

Read on for our MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, July 26. 

MLB moneyline picks for July 26

Matchup	Pick
Guardians vs Rays	-127
Blue Jays vs Red Sox	-127
Diamondbacks vs Nationals	-117
Braves vs Orioles	-108
Cubs vs Pirates	+122
Dodgers vs Mets	+150
Royals vs Tigers	+156
Padres vs Marlins	+117
Astros vs White Sox	-100
Rockies vs Brewers	+257
Athletics vs Twins	+144
Reds vs Cardinals	+117
Mariners vs Rangers	-104
Angels vs Giants	-122
Yankees vs Phillies	-133

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-26.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 26

Guardians vs Rays: Tampa Bay Rays (-127)

Rays win probability: 56%

Drew Rasmussen provides a steady baseline, though Parker Messick starting for Cleveland brings some variance. Still, Tampa Bay's pitching metrics over the last two weeks stand among the league’s elite, featuring a 3.37 xFIP and a 20 percent K-BB rate. 

Cleveland holds the offensive edge, but Tampa’s late-inning bullpen depth at home creates solid value.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox: Boston Red Sox (-127)

Red Sox win probability: 56%

Kevin Gausman always brings brand recognition, but Toronto’s lineup has hit a massive slump, producing a meager 69 wRC+ over the last 14 days.  Boston’s bullpen is firing on all cylinders with a slate-best 1.51 ERA.

Questioning Boston's starter Payton Tolle being in the rotation is reasonable, but Toronto’s bats are currently too cold to trust on the road.

Diamondbacks vs Nationals: Arizona Diamondbacks (-117)

Diamondbacks win probability: 54%

Arizona’s offense is flat-out raking right now, posting a dominant 136 wRC+ and a .504 slugging percentage over the last fortnight. Miles Mikolas sits on the other side with a bloated 5.01 xFIP and low strikeout output.

At short road odds, backing Arizona’s bats offers tremendous value.

Braves vs Orioles: Baltimore Orioles (-108)

Orioles win probability: 52%

Reynaldo Lopez usually draws heavy betting interest, but Atlanta’s overall pitching has shown vulnerabilities lately with a 4.28 xFIP. Meanwhile, Baltimore quietly holds a sharp 3.73 SIERA over the past two weeks.

Taking the Orioles as narrow home favorites at Camden Yards is a solid situational angle that must be exploited. 

Cubs vs Pirates: Chicago Cubs (+122)

Cubs win probability: 45%

Pittsburgh holds the home-field advantage, but the matchup between Jameson Taillon and Braxton Ashcraft remains tight. Chicago’s underlying offensive production (118 wRC+ vs. 100 wRC+) and bullpen metrics carry the overall statistical advantage.

Grabbing the Cubs at a plus-money price on the road provides strong value.

Dodgers vs Mets: New York Mets (+150)

Mets win probability: 40%

Emmet Sheehan versus Freddy Peralta makes for an intriguing matchup, but the prediction markets offer an appealing price tag for the home team. New York’s bullpen actually out-grades Los Angeles over the last two weeks in both ERA- and SIERA.

Backing the Mets at +150 delivers solid value. 

Royals vs Tigers: Kansas City Royals (+156)

Royals win probability: 39%

Framber Valdez on the bump gives Detroit a notable edge, but the heavy home market price opens up opportunity on the visitor. Kansas City’s offense has struggled lately, yet Valdez is occasionally prone to control hiccups.

At a generous +156 payout, taking a shot on the road underdog makes sense.

Padres vs Marlins: San Diego Padres (+117)

Padres win probability: 46%

Miami enters as a surprising home favorite despite a lineup-wide offensive drought, managing just a 70 wRC+ over the last 14 days. San Diego continues to produce high-level contact, posting a 134 wRC+ and .475 slugging mark.

Getting the Padres at plus-money with Walker Buehler pitching is arguably the top value spot on the card.

Astros vs White Sox: Houston Astros (-100)

Astros win probability: 50%

This matchup sits at flat pick 'em odds on the board. Houston’s bullpen leads the entire slate with an elite 23.4 percent K-BB rate over the last two weeks.

Backing Ronel Blanco and the Astros at even money against a struggling White Sox lineup (85 wRC+) is a strong position.

Rockies vs Brewers: Colorado Rockies (+257)

Rockies win probability: 28%

Milwaukee commands massive home chalk in this spot. Colorado’s offense remains limited with a 74 wRC+, but Milwaukee’s bullpen has shown command issues with elevated walk rates, and Jacob Misiorowski can occasionally struggle with location.

At a massive +257 payout, targeting the high-variance road underdog is the sharp play.

Athletics vs Twins: Athletics (+144)

Athletics win probability: 41%

Joe Ryan is always tough to beat at Target Field, but Minnesota carries a heavy market premium price. The Athletics' lineup has quietly put together respectable power numbers over the last fortnight.

Fading the inflated line on the home favorite and taking the A's at +144 offers a solid risk-reward play today. 

Reds vs Cardinals: Cincinnati Reds (+117)

Reds win probability: 46%

Busch Stadium is always a tough venue, but St. Louis ranks dead-last in offensive production over the past two weeks with a painful 60 wRC+. Cincinnati brings significantly more isolated power with a .231 ISO.

Backing Andrew Abbott and the Reds as road underdog is where the value lies today. 

Mariners vs Rangers: Seattle Mariners (-104)

Mariners win probability: 51%

Betting against Jacob deGrom requires caution, but Texas’s overall bullpen metrics have cratered recently, sitting at a 166 ERA and 5.15 xFIP. Seattle’s pitching group remains far more reliable with Logan Gilbert taking the ball.

Getting Seattle near pick 'em odds (-104) offers strong value.

Angels vs Giants: San Francisco Giants (-122)

Giants win probability: 55%

An unannounced starter for San Francisco adds intrigue, but the Angels' lineup remains stagnant, posting an 86 wRC+ and a lightweight .099 ISO over two weeks. San Francisco’s bullpen boasts a 3.92 SIERRA across the past 14 days, and at -122, the park environment and bullpen depth heavily favor the home side.

Yankees vs Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies (-133)

Phillies win probability: 57%

In a prime-time national TV slot, Will Warren starting for New York leaves the door open for Philadelphia, particularly with the Yankees hitting just .210 over their last 14 games. Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies bullpen carry a sharp 3.18 ERA.

At -133, backing the home club is a great play to close out Sunday.

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