Category: Sports News

The San Diego Padres entered Spring Training with an open competition for the fifth and final spot in the rotation. Since the start of spring, the Friar Faithful have learned that Joe Musgrove, who is returning after Tommy John surgery, is likely to start the season on the injured list, which means the Padres will have two spots to fill in their rotation.

The competition for what is now two spots in the rotation is likely to result in minor league signee Walker Buehler and major league signee German Marquez occupying those positions, but manager Craig Stammen said roster decisions will be made as late as possible to allow the organization to have the most information available to them. Could that mean San Diego president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller might look to make a trade or sign a free agent? Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball thinks Preller should strongly consider adding the best remaining free agent pitcher, Lucas Giolito, to strengthen the rotation and to provide pitching depth when players like Musgrove or Griffin Canning return to the team when healthy. Of course, there are other players on the roster who could push for a rotation spot and make the need to sign Giolito irrelevant, but with only a week remaining before Opening Day, decisions about how to address the pitching vacancies will have to be made soon.

Padres News:

• There has been a lot of competition in camp this spring for the Padres. A handful of players like Ty France, Jose Miranda and Jase Bowen are pushing for opportunities to make the roster with solid performances in camp. Some of the veterans will have opt-outs that will allow them to seek employment elsewhere, but the best thing for the Padres according to Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball is all this competition means the Padres have renewed organizational depth that could benefit the team at some point during the 2026 season.

• With the World Baseball Classic coming to an end, the players who competed for their respective countries will return to their MLB teams and continue preparing for the upcoming season. That means more Spring Training games that do not count and there is less excitement on the field which the WBC provided. Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball gives fans a reason for hope with the upcoming Spring Breakout Series, which allows minor league players from each organization to showcase their skills and give fans of the respective teams a glimpse at their organization’s future.

• Like all teams in MLB, the San Diego organization is still getting used to the new strike zone that has come with the advent of the ABS Challenge System. The catchers seem to have the best grasp of the zone based on their success of getting calls overturned for their pitchers, but the hitters, and their lack of success challenging pitches, have shown they are still trying to learn the new normal as Opening Day approaches.

Baseball News:

• Shohei Ohtani made his Spring Training debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers and struck out four batters in 4 1/3 innings. Gerrit Cole also made his Spring Training debut Wednesday and completed a scoreless inning of work after returning from Tommy John surgery.

• Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Jose Berrios has been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his elbow and will open the season on the injured list. However, Berrios is expected to pitch through the injury so his sting on the IL should not be long.

• New York Mets pitching prospect Nolan McLean pitched the WBC final for the US against Venezuela and it was easy to see why his is so highly rated. He was consistently hitting 98/99 mph on the radar gun and his sweeper looked unhittable at times. McLean also has MLB star and rival Philadelphia Phillies slugger Bryce Harper calling him the best arm he saw in 2025.

Team News

Corbin Carroll blasts 1st home run of spring training after hand surgery
https://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/corbin-carroll-home-run/3614945/

Corbin Carroll Puts Power Doubts to Rest With Massive Homerhttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/arizona-diamondbacks-news/corbin-carroll-puts-power-doubts-rest-massive-homer

Classic experience ‘so much fun,’ but D-backs happy to reunite with familyhttps://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/diamondbacks-players-return-from-2026-world-baseball-classic

Diamondbacks unveil new treat at Chase Field, the “Take Me Out to the Ballgame Shake”https://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/diamondbacks-shake/3614988/

Geraldo Perdomo moving on from controversial call to end WBC: ‘At least Venezuela won’https://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/geraldo-perdomo-wbc-strike-call/3614955/

What the World Baseball Classic Meant to the Diamondbackshttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/arizona-diamondbacks-news/world-baseball-classic-diamondbacks-marte-perdomo-arenado

D-backs Pitcher ‘Pretty Sure’ He’ll Begin Season on Injured Listhttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/arizona-diamondbacks-news/d-backs-pitcher-pretty-sure-injured-list-merrill-kelly

Anything Goes

This day in history:

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/march-19

This day in baseball:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/March_19

The human brain is 78% water.

Up to 60% of the adult human body is made up of water. Research has indicated that both the human brain and heart are around 73-78% water. 

Ducks cannot walk without bobbing their heads.

Ducks often bob their heads to signify moods or emotions. At times, it may also be used to signify flirting during the mating season. 

The human tongue heals the fastest compared to all body parts.

This is due to the rich supply of blood that circulates the tongue. It may also be because the mouth is constantly replenishing your taste buds. 

Now that the WBC is over, back to your regularly scheduled attempts for me to come up with a relevant question to pose every weekday morning. But hey, at least today, I have a good one.

Earlier this week, Eric Longenhagen snagged for FanGraphs, of all places, an exclusive regarding additional rules changes that MLB will be testing in the minors. One jumped out at me:

…the batter, pitcher, or catcher may also appeal the umpire’s decision regarding whether the batter swung at a pitch (“Check-Swing Challenge”). A swing will be considered to have occurred if the maximum angle between the bat head and the bat handle exceeds 45 degrees. This rule was tested in the Florida State League and Arizona Fall League in 2025. In the FSL, the strikeout rate was over 3% lower when Check-Swing Challenge was used, having a positive impact on balls in play and encouraging more extensive testing at higher levels. Under this format, each team will continue to start the game with 2 challenges. Challenges may be used on either ball/strike calls or swing/no-swing calls, but not both on the same pitch.

The above change will be tested in the Pacific Coast League partway through the season; the International League won’t have challenges apply to check-swing calls, but umpires will be instructed to attempt to make check-swing calls based on the same criteria as above.

This potential rules change is a big deal, because check swings aren’t currently codified in the rulebook, and thus are entirely at the discretion of the umpires. Does this definition work well? I have no idea. It seems pretty opaque to me, and again, MLB needs to start putting these things in the rules to avoid the potential for shenanigans and misapplication — but beyond that, I always thought that the “house rule” of check swings was whether the bat crossed the plate, and this is something completely different.

So, I like the pseudo-codification (though wish it were real codification), I like the more-objective potential standard, I’m not too keen on the standard itself… and I’m curious about what downstream effects this will have if implemented at the major league level. Longenhagen seems to suggest that this gives batters a lot of leeway and reduces called check-swing strikes. If so, will this encourage batters to slap more, given that by not going all out on a swing, they can always turn a potential strike on a ball outside the zone into a ball just by restraining themselves in a way that wasn’t guaranteed to previously work? Or, will it be so lenient as to encourage big swings that can nonetheless be stopped midway when the batter realizes they have been fooled? I really have no idea, so this is pretty exciting. But, moreso than that, I’m just glad that MLB is moving to less of a “you’ll know it when the umpire sees it” standard for stuff.

What about you? Are you excited about this potential change? Do you hate it? What do you think it’ll do to the MLB meta, as it were?

One element that makes the Detroit Tigers a lot more formidable than they were last year is the presence of near major league ready positional prospects. Last season they didn’t really have a prospect push to buoy them throughout the season, particularly in terms of hitters. One of their top hopes for depth in the infield this season is Max Anderson. After a breakout 2025 season at the Double-A level, he’s had a nice spring camp and looks the part of a quality hitting prospect who isn’t too far from contributing to the Tigers’ efforts this season.

The 24-year-old right-handed hitter was the Tigers’ second rounder in the 2023 draft, selected right after they picked Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle with their first selections. The Tigers paid Anderson a hair less than $1.5 million to sign out of Nebraska, which saved them around $470K in signing bonus. Even better, it appears they got that pick correct.

Anderson doesn’t offer much in the way of athleticism, and is best suited to second base, but he can really hit. He raked in college, and he’s continued to be a high average, low strikeout hitter in the minor leagues. A second baseman by trade, Anderson has continued to improve his glove, footwork, and throwing during his time with the Tigers. The element that continues to hold him back is his lack of footspeed and range. Still, that’s not too dissimilar from Gleyber Torres’ defensive profile. So as long as Anderson hits, the Tigers will find a way to use him, whether at third base, first base, or at second in case of a Torres injury.

The knock on this profile is that while Anderson has plenty of juice and has popped numerous balls with plus exit velocities in his time in the minor leagues, he didn’t really hit for that much game power in his 2024 full season debut in A-ball. A free-swinger, hitting from a pretty deep crouch and without the flexibility to create good bat angles on pitches to all parts of the zone, Anderson has a tendency to let his hands do most of the work at the plate. To unlock his power potential, he needed to work on pulling more balls in the air, but he also needed to be a lot more selective in terms of what he’s swinging at as well, trying to get more pitches he can drive rather than just chasing off the plate on pitches he can slap the other way. In 2025, he made some strides in that direction.

In 405 plate appearances for the Double-A Erie SeaWolves, Anderson launched 14 home runs and hit .306/.358/.499. He struck out just 14.6 percent of the time, with a decent 6.9 percent walk rate as well. He moved up to Triple-A Toledo late in the season, and while his strikeouts spiked somewhat, he held his own, and added another five homers in 32 games to reach 19 long balls on the year. You couldn’t ask for too much more overall, though his numbers against left-handers were far better than his solid but modest .767 OPS against right-handed pitching. It also didn’t hurt that as predicted, Anderson and Kevin McGonigle faced much weaker pitching in the Arizona Fall League than they were used to seeing, and absolutely tore the place apart.

Anderson still hits the ball on the ground too much, but he improved in that regard compared to his 2024 debut and he also started pulling more balls to left field. He continues to show his plus hand-eye coordination in routinely getting the barrel on the ball, even on pitches where he was initially fooled. He didn’t abandon his crouch as some thought he might, but he did moderate it a bit, helping him to be more mobile in the box to catch balls out front, as opposed to letting everything travel deep with a heavy bias to the opposite field the way he did in his first pro season. Even better he did it without striking out any more, and even his late season run in Toledo showed a better than league average strikeout rate complete with sustained home run power.

It’s only 32 plate appearances of spring training work, but so far Anderson has held his own in spring camp. The stocky infielder is not going to get faster, but he’s otherwise continued to refine his defensive game and looks playable at both second and third base. We haven’t seen him cut down on the chase yet, but by hunting more pitches he can pull and drive early in counts, and then trusting his strong pure hitting ability deeper into an at-bat, he looks more and more like he’ll be a solid major league hitter who hits left-handers well in particular.

The final step for Max Anderson this season is to consolidate his gains and keep working on his zone discipline. Currently he isn’t on the 40-man roster, though he’ll be Rule 5 eligible next fall, and the Tigers don’t have an opening for him at second or third base. However, if this were a lower tier MLB roster Anderson would probably be going north with the team or looking at a debut in the spring. His more refined defensive game this spring has been a nice upgrade for him as well, and it’s worth mentioning that he also looks like a fairly attractive trade piece this season if required.

There’s a lot of pressure on Anderson to hit and to hit for solid power. He isn’t going to provide much value defensively or on the bases. However, he has cleaned up his all around game even more this offseason, and he shows a lot of signs that the bat will play enough to find at least a part-time role in the years ahead.

The Tigers have kept him in major league camp much of the spring, and it’s notable that he’s not on the Spring Breakout roster and seems likely to travel to Colorado for the club’s final two exhibition games of the spring calendar. He’ll head to Toledo beyond that, but on a team with a heavily left-handed infield group beyond 2026, there will be opportunities for a regular role as a lefty mashing infielder with a little positional versatility. A significant injury around the infield could open up a spot for him to make his debut this year. If not, one would expect that the Tigers will get him at least a look at the show sometime this summer when an opportunity comes along.

A couple of weeks ago, I introduced a new mini-series in which I examined a few players on the edge of the roster. These are guys who could fundamentally change the trajectory of this franchise if, improbably, they reach their full ceilings and become reliable, productive contributors to a good team. First, I profiled Brooks Baldwin and what his quiet surge in the second half of last year might mean. Next up is Jonathan Cannon, who remains on the outside looking in for a rotation spot after failing to solidify his future there last summer.

It’s as simple as this: Cannon’s pitch mix was and remains fascinating. It moves all over the place, and when things are going right, it’s the kind of stuff that makes you wonder how a hitter ever finds a barrel.

Through his first few outings in Arizona, he’s still tinkering with that mix. It appears he’s added yet another type of breaking ball to his arsenal, testing a new slider that could slot in neatly as a bridge between his cutter and his sweeper.

Just as a reminder, here’s what Cannon can already do on the occasion where he has everything going for him. His very first MLB win was a near-complete game gem against a Houston Astros team.

Cannon has a major problem, though, one that FanGraphs prospect writer Eric Longenhagen identified back before the 2024 season and remains true to this day: platoon splits. His sinker-sweeper combination can be hell for righties when he’s locating them, but his command isn’t good enough to prevent him from leaving the sinker up in the zone to lefties, where it’s gotten absolutely pummeled. With a relatively low arm slot and long-armed delivery, lefties are simply going to see fastballs better, and Cannon’s cutter hasn’t been significantly more effective, even though he favors them over the sinker to southpaws. Strangely, his most effective fastball, the four-seamer, is the one he’s used the least. This chart of his arm angle and pitch movement from 2025 clarifies things a little.

When it comes to fastball movement, if the pitch is fully in line with the pitcher’s arm angle, as Cannon’s almost is, it’s a lot easier for the hitter to track because the ball follows the path that the eye is expecting based on the arm angle and release point. A good sinker is going to drop substantially below the pitcher’s arm slot, and a solid four-seamer is going to have rise that’s significantly up and to the left of the arm. With that in mind, the difference in effectiveness between his sinker and less-used four-seamer makes more sense. We’ll see if this new slider, and perhaps an uptick in four-seam usage, can give him more of a chance against opposite-handed hitters. His sweeper is already deadly to right-handed hitters, and the changeup he’s introduced since his prospect days has solid potential as a change-of-pace pitch to mess with hitters’ timing.

With Erick Fedde signed to a major league deal and officially now slotted into the final rotation spot, Cannon appeared bound for Charlotte. Now, though, with Mike Vasil sadly out of the picture until mid-2027 with Tommy John surgery, there’s a long relief spot in the bullpen for which Cannon makes a fascinating fit. I hadn’t considered it before, but this could be where Cannon cements himself as a roster mainstay — even if the odds once seemed slim.

However, there are arguments against it. For one, and this is pretty wild, Cannon also has a weird split where hitters have done more damage the first time through the order than the second time through. An .877 OPS his first time through the lineup, an even .800 the second in a roughly equal number of plate appearances for his two-year career. It gives me pause as to whether he’s truly suited for multi-inning, one-time-through-the-order relief.

That being said, a deeper look at the splits says that it’s almost all luck. There’s virtually no substantial change in how batters have hit the ball, but an unlucky 65% strand rate the first time through and an unsustainably high 81% strand rate the second time suggest it might not hold up long term. There’s also the fact that pitchers usually change up their pitch mix the second time they see a hitter, and it may be that the pitch mix Cannon uses then is actually more effective than what we’d consider his primary arsenal.

I’ve discovered a hole in Baseball Savant and FanGraphs in which it’s impossible to see changes in pitch usage based on time through the order, so I can’t say for sure. If it’s the case, relating to a point you’ll see in a few moments, a move to a long relief role could let him figure out exactly which of his multiple approaches really works the best.

Finally, there’s the argument that if the potential to be elite is there, it’s better to have him slightly less stretched out in the big leagues than being a normal starter in the minors. Charlotte’s rotation is absolutely loaded between Noah Schultz, Tanner McDougal, and a revived Hagen Smith. While the big league rotation of Shane Smith, Davis Martin, and Sean Burke all finished between 135 and 146 innings pitched last year and will look to jump into the 160+ range this year. But it’s unlikely that they all get there. If all three of Schultz, McDougal, and Smith get it rolling in Charlotte at the same time, the future of the Sox rotation will be as bright as a star. But it probably won’t happen, and if they can get Cannon rolling as a long reliever in the majors, he’ll be extremely valuable as a seventh or eighth starter, so to speak, given that it’s hard to see more than three of those top six pitchers breaking the 150-inning threshold.

Only working through the order once has benefits beyond the standard general penalty, as a hitter sees a pitcher for the second time. There’s the classic velocity bump from working with shorter spurts. The four-seamer has potential, and a jump from the 94 mph range to the 96 mph range would make his already-intriguing four-seamer a lot more interesting. There’s also a lesser-considered side effect to this kind of change. Part of the game-within-the-game of being a starting pitcher is that it’s an extended battle with the opposing lineup. The way a starter pitches to a hitter always accounts for the fact that, in all likelihood, the hitter has either seen the pitcher’s arsenal already or is going to see it again in a couple of innings, or with the resolute knowledge that they aren’t going to see it again.

None of this is the case for a relief pitcher, and the result is that being asked to work in shorter stints allows a pitcher to hone in on what they do best. As a reliever, there’s no reason not to show your best stuff at all times, and so it presents an opportunity for a pitcher to find out what they’re really good at, if such a thing exists.

It’s not perfect, but I like Clay Holmes as an example of what a fully optimized Cannon might look like. When he came up to the majors with the Pirates, Holmes averaged about 94 mph on a sinker-heavy fastball mix and a broad arsenal that bears a pretty solid resemblance to Cannon’s. A move to the bullpen spiked Holmes’s velocity to 96-97 mph, and he went from throwing five pitches to locking in on the three that performed best. After several years dominating as a reliever, Holmes brought back the five-pitch mix for a move back to the rotation, and this time, he knew what to do with it, running a 3.53 ERA in 165 very solid innings for the New York Mets.

This isn’t to say that Cannon is going to turn into an elite closer, but it’s an example of how a move to the bullpen might unlock his full potential. If Cannon finds a way to do that before injuries and ineffectiveness chip away at the Opening Day starting five, he might be able to bring a newfound approach with him back to a starting role somewhere down the line.

Mike Vasil will be out for a while now. Still, the harsh reality is that while he’s probably a solid MLB reliever, pretty much everything under the hood indicates he won’t be able to replicate the 100 innings of 2.50 ERA that he gave the Sox in 2025. It’s a shame because that’s the kind of contribution that can help push a competitive team from good to great, and it would likely have been far more valuable in 2028 than in 2025.

In short, Vasil 2026–28 likely wouldn’t match 2025, but an optimized Cannon could — and with enough starting experience, the team wouldn’t have to wait until 2027 to stretch him out. All in all, if Cannon is going to shave down his arsenal and lock in on finding out what he does best, I don’t think it’s going to happen as a No. 4 starter in the International League Triple-A East. I’ll take the upside I just described over the seemingly small chance he emerges as a true building block starting pitcher while having to deal with Charlotte’s offensive bandbox of a stadium.

A couple of weeks ago, I talked a little about the implications that would be if Baldwin turned out to be an everyday-caliber player, or better. Given how much the pitching has lagged behind the starting lineup in getting high-impact prospects to the majors, the emergence of Cannon as a candidate for 100-ish effective innings as a multi-inning reliever and depth starter raises the floor of the staff by a full order of magnitude. Again, I love the thought of all three of Schultz, Smith, and McDougal forcing their way to the big league rotation with Triple-A dominance, but it’s not something you can expect or plan on. If things go according to plan, 2026 will be the last season in which wins and losses won’t really matter all that much, and the opportunity to take chances and risks with developing players won’t conflict with the necessity of engaging in a playoff chase.

Personally, I’m thrilled by the idea of not having to worry about rotation and long relief depth in the long term, because it opens the door to chasing a true ace next offseason. Stop spending money on back-end starters coming back from stints in other leagues and give Freddy Peralta or Shane Bieber or a resurgent Zac Gallen or an opted-out Tatsuya Imai what they’re worth to top the rotation alongside whichever of the Charlotte rotation prodigies shines the brightest. Or push it back a year and set your sights on Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, Pablo López, or Mackenzie Gore.

May we live in a world in which we get to find out!

In the 2024 MLB Draft, the Yankees used their first round pick on pitcher Ben Hess out of the University of Alabama. In that previous college season, Hess had posted a 5.80 ERA in 68.1 innings, which might not necessarily scream being the 26th overall pick. However, any draft/prospect people at the time would’ve been saying not to worry about that too much. For one, he struck out over 10 batters per nine innings every season in college, showing he had the raw “stuff.” Beyond just pitchers developing a good amount in the minor leagues beyond any development they do in high school and college, college baseball in particular can be a bit wild with offense.

Flash forward a year and a half with Hess now having spent parts of two seasons in the Yankees’ system, and you can see why that’s the case. Debuting in real games in 2025, he’s been good to very good at every minor league level he’s played at, and he also continues to strike out a boatload of batters. Now as we head into the 2026 season, how high might Hess be able to climb this year.

2025 Statistics (in High-A and Double-A): 22 games, 103.1 innings pitched, 3.22 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 2.94 xFIP, 85 ERA-, 139 K, 33.0 K%, 10.9 BB%, 0.26 HR/9, 1.07 WHIP

So far in spring training, Hess has impressed in a handful of innings in MLB spring games. In five innings, he’s posted a 1.80 ERA and has struck out six batters compared to two walks. You can read more about that and a greater look at his repertoire here, as we’re focusing more on his upcoming season in general. The Yankees have already reassigned him to minor league camp, but considering that he’s only reached as high as Double-A and the team has a lot of competition in the starting pitching department, that’s not a surprise nor a setback for him.

Just as one example, MLB Pipeline lists Hess’ major league ETA at 2027. That feels somewhat more realistic than 2026. With a full rotation already and the likes of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and maybe Clarke Schmidt returning at some point this year, the Yankees hopefully won’t have a massive need for starters, at least.

That being said, it’s also not impossible that a good season could get him a cameo this year. You’d imagine he’ll start the year at Double-A, having thrown 36.2 innings there last year. If he repeats his success there, it seems likely that they’d move him up to Triple-A, and at that point a player is right on the cusp. It doesn’t seem far-fetched that we could see him get some innings out of the bullpen as a September call-up or something like that, should he continue his upward trajectory. Getting up as a starter seems a little difficult, but then again, we would’ve been saying that about Cam Schlittler last year, so who knows.

On the other hand, unless the rotation suffers catastrophic injuries, there’s also no rush. Hess had progressed pretty nicely so far. Even when taking into account that college pitches can sometimes move through the minors a little faster, making it up to and having good results at Double-A in your first full year in the system is pretty impressive. Let’s hope we’re saying similar things about Hess following the 2026 season.

See more of the Yankees Previews series here.

A’s pitching coach Scott Emerson is one of the few people at Hohokam Stadium who actually recognizes me when I approach. But that’s not why I interviewed him on Saturday, March 14th. Emo is a huge part of the decision making and development around A’s pitchers and we had much ground to cover on this sunny Mesa day…

Nico: All right, my first question. As a baseball fan, I’ve been through so many pitches that suddenly became fashionable. I’ve been through the forkball, the splitter, the cutter. It feels like there’s a pitch that’s starting to be talked about but isn’t really well known, and that’s the kick change.

So I wanted to know what’s up with that pitch, how much it’s being used, its purpose, and specifically, how much it’s being used by ace pitchers, majors and minors now?

Emo: Well, I think the kick change is a good pitch that has a lot of movement. It acts like a forkball or a split. A loose rotation ball, that is another chase pitch. A lot of guys throw it because it looks good on the iPad, but if you can’t command the bottom of the third with it, then it’s really not a good pitch. It’s kind of just a forkball or a chase pitch. So yeah, there’s a lot of guys around the league that throw it and some throw it good and some throw it not so good because they don’t execute it at the bottom third.

For me, it’s a tough pitch to throw because you’re spiking a finger on the baseball, and kind of the ball has a mind of its own, and it’s kind of moving, which is good if you’re using it as a count leverage pitch. But if you’re trying to throw it in the zone with that much movement, and you’re trying to throw it behind in the count, then it doesn’t serve its purpose as a changeup. It serves its purpose as a chase pitch. I think for me it can go either way. If the guy throws obviously a good kick change where the movement is good and the profile of the pitch is good and it’s landed at the bottom third, then I like it.

If we’re throwing it ahead in the count as a chase pitch like a forkball or a split, then I like it. But if you’re trying to throw it behind in the count for a soft contact pitch and it’s thrown as a chase pitch, then obviously it’s not any good. So it’s kind of a fine line pitch. You’ve got to know how it fits into your arsenal. Some guys it fits into the arsenal as a chase pitch, and that’s because they can’t land it at the bottom third for a contact pitch. And the guys who can land it at the bottom third, they can use it as a behind the count pitch to get soft contact.

Nico: Now, just because a pitch is relatively new to fans doesn’t mean it’s new in the game and there’s usually a time lag. How recent has that pitch become fashionable?

Emo: Well, it’s become fashionable probably over the last four or five years because the internet made it fashionable. Ron Romanic, who’s the pitching coordinator here, we had plenty of guys throwing what they’re calling a kick change, you know, in the early 2000s. Guys threw a version of it in the late 80s, early 90s. They just put more of a knuckle on it. Anything they could do to take the revolutions and spin off the baseball, we were doing it. But now that somebody does it really well, it gets publicized a little bit more, right? And then you’ve got the guys who are posting it on the internet more. And it’s become famous because the news or the internet can make it famous. And then everybody’s going to try it because we see it out there.

So I think it’s like anything else. The sweeper is nothing more than what we used to call “slurve”. So we can change the names of pitches. If they’re still acting like the pitches we threw 10, 15, 20 years ago, they’re just the same pitches, right?

Nico: So switching gears to someone who doesn’t throw the kick change, it feels like one of the most tricky decisions that has to be made with this year’s pitching staff is how to leverage Jack Perkins. And he’s been starting, but he’s struggled with pitch count per inning, and obviously the big issue has been ability to stay healthy as a starter. But where are we now, March 14th, with regard to where he’ll probably start the year or where you might see him long term?

Emo: Yeah, Jack’s got another outing tomorrow for sure and we’re going to evaluate that outing again. I think it’s really good that Jack can have multiple roles on a team. You need guys that can do both. I always go back and think about Chris Bassitt and how Bassitt took a kind of a longer time to solidify himself in a major league rotation. It kind of went all the way to maybe 2020 and 2021. And he started in the big leagues in 2014.

So I remember in 2019, he called me up and said in the off season, you just pitch me and when the phone rings, I’m going to pitch. So, you know, for a guy like Jack right now with the guys that we got, you know, it can be that dual role and we’re just getting his pitch count up. So he could start, he could relieve, and then we’ll evaluate that as spring training continues.

Nico: You know, something that I have been advocating for, the A’s did last year, and I’m not sure if it was by design or if it was kind of by necessity, and that is the two-inning bridge reliever that gets you more seamlessly from the starter to the closer.

Luis Morales came up, Jack Perkins came up, and they went into the bullpen and then eventually the rotation. JT Ginn has spent time as like a two-inning reliever who can kind of let it out. I’m curious your thoughts about that “bridge reliever” concept and the two inning plus high leverage reliever. And what place that has in the game right now.

Emo: Yeah, I think it should have a big place in the game. Starting pitching, and we’ve averaged 5 1/3 for a long time. Everybody says we’re pulling pitchers out of the game too early. But it seems like 5 1/3, 5 2/3 is what we’ve been doing for the last 25 years anyways. But when you can bring in a guy who can go multiple innings, you don’t have to throw so many relievers in one game.

It’s hard to go out there and have a starter go 5, you got 4 innings left, and you expect four pitchers to be on their game every night. So by bridging guys or having guys that can go multiple innings, it just cuts down on how many pitchers that you’re using, and it also gives the guys the ability to get rest.

I think if you saw, obviously we didn’t pitch very good at all in the month of May. If you look at April and you take out May, we pitched pretty good all year other than the month of May was really bad. And some of our guys were worn out and not only were they pitching, but they were warming up a lot because we were getting hit pretty good and we needed guys to finish games.

So by implementing this concept, of having multiple inning relievers, I think it just makes pitchers better. The, for lack of another term, the blow and go guy {I had to refrain from making an inappropriate joke here} who’s coming out and pitching like a drag racer, who’s throwing everything as hard as he can for one inning and spinning everything as hard as he can for one inning. Are those guys sustainable over a course of time?

Yes, the elite ones are and the other guys aren’t. But who can actually bridge the game together? And, you know, if you look at what minor league pitchers are getting called up to the big leagues, in general you’re calling up starters. And they have a role in this game as relievers as well. You’re always trying to maximize their potential in the minor leagues and see if you can have a big league starter, because big league starters are gold.

But there’s eight relievers on a team and only five starters. Unless you’re the Dodgers, you get nine relievers and five starters. But, you know, I think it’s always good to have guys that can go multiple innings and generally ex-minor league starters command the baseball more and they can maximize their potential, be sustainable longer because they can execute better.

So you do look at the minor league starters who become big league relievers because they have big arms and you’re always trying to get them to be starters. But I think it’s a huge role and I’m hoping that we can implement that as best we can. Pitch counts, everybody gets us on pitch counts. And I always try to say it’s not the pitch counts that’s getting us, it’s the “third time through the lineup” penalty. If you look at the data, third time through starters get penalized.

The elite starters don’t get penalized because they’re elite, but the other starters could get penalized and that’s where the game is. And then if they’re 5 IP and 95, 100 pitches right there that’s a taxing workload. Obviously, you want to try to go, I’m still under the impression that our guys can go 9 innings, that’s (less than) 15 pitches an inning. Can we do that? That just means we gotta execute inning by inning.

Nico: Yeah, and I really like the way that you transition guys from the minor leagues as starters to the bullpen as high leverage relievers and then into the rotation when they were ready. And you were managing innings and that was part of the thought process. Is that something we can expect in 2026? Someone like Gage Jump comes to mind, or Mason Barnett comes to mind.

Emo: Yeah, I think all options are on the table, right? We’re going to go out there with the five guys that we deem are ready to go to start the season and then see how our plan plays out after that. We’re trying to get some of our guys multiple innings in spring training. You’ll see Luis Medina went 2 IP the other day. He’s probably going to go one inning his next outing, but the following outing after that, we’re going to try to get him up to 45 pitches in 3 innings.

Knowing that he’s coming off a major injury and didn’t pitch last year. So when he pitches, probably you’ll see him pitch in multiple inning roles so he can get the rest. I think it’s important to have rest. And then you got guys like Hogan Harris, (Justin) Sterner, who can go 1+. Michael Kelly, (Tyler) Ferguson can go 1+. We did a 1+ before Elvis Alvarado left for the WBC. And I told the guys in the WBC that he can go 1+ or get to 35 pitches. And then if he does get to 35 pitches, you can add on another 10 pitches, so the goal is always to have our relievers ready for 2 innings. Now, who can be ready for 3?

Nico: Right. Now, a feel good moment. Who are a couple pitchers that you can name and you’re like, “It’s been exciting to watch them this spring,” or “I think that they’re going to have a much better year than maybe their spring training numbers show,” because spring training numbers are always a bit deceiving.

Emo: Well, obviously, Jump comes to mind because he’s a high prospect, and he threw the ball well in spring training. I like the way JT Ginn’s gone about his business and done his thing. Lopez is coming back. Today’s game, we’re trying to get 4 IP and 60 out of him and see where we’re at with him. For me, the first four or five games for all the guys is kind of working on getting out there, getting the rust out and getting the kinks out. And these last three games are the exciting times and the exciting games, cuz this is where we gotta start getting ready for the season.

Nico: Yeah, last question, just getting back to specifics. Ginn has had such a split between managing right-handed batters and left-handed batters. It’s pretty clear if he can neutralize lefties at all, he could be a really fine pitcher. What are the things that you’re doing in terms of either approach or pitch selection or developing pitches to try to get him there?

Emo: Yeah, he’s been really working on a four-seam fastball to change eye levels, not only to left-handed batters, but to right-handed batters. I think he has to execute the sinker better to the left. He’s at the bottom rail. Instead of running it across the middle of cross rail, that’s when he gets in trouble. So a sinker at the bottom rail is very important to him. He’s been working on his change-up, something that can dive bomb and get to the bottom 1/3. I thought he did a really good job his last start of getting to the bottom 1/3 with that.

For Ginner, it’s being in the zone when he has to be and being out of the zone when he has to be. But to neutralize that left handed hitter, it’s executing pitches and it’s a slightly different arsenal mix from lefties to righties. You’re gonna see sinker, breaking ball a lot to the right handers. Now can we go four seamers and changeups with the breaking ball and maybe sneak in some sinkers as well to the left handed hitters. But for him, it’s basically executing pitches.

Many thanks to Emo for the time, intel and wisdom. If you missed my interview with Jacob Lopez you can read it here. Up next, Shea Langeliers talks ABS, the rigors of catching, his development arc, and much much less!

Not only was the World Baseball Classic a massive success, but it also featured Red Sox players as a main character in what felt like almost every game. So as our attention turns back to the more traditional 162 game brand of baseball, do any performances on the global stage change your outlook for the upcoming season (for either a player or the team as a whole)?

On the positive side, Roman Anthony looked as good as any hitter on Team USA until he struck out in the final at-bat of the tournament. This included a .920 OPS, a .400 OBP, and a game winning home run against the Dominican Republic.

Wilyer Abreu was also fantastic, hitting two of the biggest home runs of the entire tournament. The first was his titanic shot that changed the momentum for good against Japan, and the second occurred in the tight final 3-2 Venezuela win. He may have even been robbed of tournament MVP, but that’s a different discussion.

Meanwhile, Masataka Yoshida looked great in his Team Japan uniform, particularly in the Tokyo games. His OPS in the five games he played in the WBC was a whopping 1.257, and he also had a massive home run in pool play.

Then there’s Jarren Duran, who even though he played for Team Mexico which didn’t make it out of pool play this year, posted a 1.412 OPS in his four games. This also included three home runs.

It’s funny isn’t it? These are all guys associated with the outfield / DH logjam, and they all performed well during the WBC.

On the flip side, there were a couple of concerning outings in the knockout stage. The most obvious is probably Garrett Whitlock cracking in the ninth inning of the championship game after looking great in the semifinal against the D.R. It seems as true as ever that you have to spread Whitlock’s performances out enough to keep him effective, and, if you don’t, you’ll get burned in a brutal spot. It cost the Red Sox in the Wild Card series against the Yankees last October, and it cost Team USA in the WBC championship final.

Additionally, Ranger Suarez, who was the big free agent pickup of the offseason, got shelled in his game for Team Venezuela Saturday night. In fact, when you look at his line against Team Japan of five earned runs in 2.2 innings pitched and then note he was slated against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it’s kind of a miracle Venezuela won that game.

So how are you feeling a week away from the Sox season starting now that we’ve got a small sample size of results in games that matter? Talk about this and whatever else you’d like, and as always, be good to one another.

Wednesday saw the return of Shohei Ohtani to the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and in typical Shohei style, he picked up where he left off last season (aside from that Game 7 clunker).

Against the San Francisco Giants, Ohtani went 4 2/3 innings, allowing only one hit along with two walks and a hit batter.

Manager Dave Roberts was quite effusive in his remarks about Ohtani after the game.

“I was (surprised at how sharp he was). But I guess I’ve learned that you don’t ever underestimate or try to make predictions on what Shohei’s going to do. He’s always going to deliver. Yeah, I thought he would be a little bit more rusty than he was today. The breaking ball was good, got some swing and miss. The fastball command, he was working ahead in the count today. So across the board, really good.”

“It actually didn’t feel like it was my first spring training outing,” Ohtani said through his interpreter. “I do see this as more of an extension of a live BP situation. So it didn’t feel too bad going into this game.”

Bill Plunkett of the OC Register has many more quotes about Ohtani’s performance today, and how he felt over this offseason as opposed to last offseason. Spoiler alert – he felt great. Coming off your second World Series win in as many years and finally being healthy can have that effect on a man.

Jack Harris of the California Post shared a little bit more behind the scenes of the Dodgers pursuit of free agent Kyle Tucker. For as good as Tucker is, and for highly sought after he was in the offseason, the Dodgers wanted to know if he was ready to level up to compete on all cylinders.

“We feel like, with where he’s at, getting a complete season out of him on both sides of the ball is very attainable,” Friedman said. “And we feel like, in our environment, we can help bring that out of him even more.”

So far this spring, Tucker is batting .250 with two homers and three RBI. While Spring Training stats aren’t always indicative of what that player will be like in the season, it seems that Tucker has a little more work to do to achieve his best season yet.

Miguel Rojas spent six frantic minutes on Monday dealing with the fallout of an erroneous tweet sent out by Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The tweet stated that Miggy Ro had been suspended for 80 games for testing positive for use of a banned substance. It was in fact Johan Rojas of the Philadelphia Phillies who had tested positive for Boldenone, not the World Series hero.

Maddie Lee at the Los Angeles Times covered the fallout, and how Drellich finally issued a more formal apology on Wednesday to Miguel and the Dodgers organization. Seven minutes was seven minutes too long, as I’m sure Toronto Blue Jays and other baseball fans would’ve had some choice things to say about that infamous homer that would’ve marred that moment forever.

“I’m not frustrated because of the report, because we are all humans and we make mistakes,” Rojas said Wednesday morning in front of his locker at Camelback Ranch. “I was expecting a little bit more of an apology, not just to me, but the organization. Because it wasn’t just my name, it was pretty clear that it says, ‘Miguel Rojas from the Los Angeles Dodgers.’ And I don’t think anybody in this organization should be kind of freaking out and jumping out of their seats for the six or seven minutes that it happened.”

One of the reasons that the Orioles targeted Zach Eflin at the 2024 trade deadline—beyond his solid track record as a dependable big league arm—was that he came with an additional season of control. He wasn’t due to hit free agency for more than a year, meaning he could help the Orioles through 2025, a crucial season in their perceived competitive window. Unfortunately, that didn’t really pan out.

Eflin was given the Opening Day nod for the O’s in 2025. The team was still waiting on Grayson Rodriguez’s shoulder to respond to his rehab, and they knew Kyle Bradish wouldn’t be back until late in the campaign due to Tommy John surgery. So, by default, the honor fell to Eflin. That would prove to be the high point in a nightmare season.

On that day, Eflin went six innings and allowed two runs en route to a win over the eventual AL Champion Toronto Blue Jays. While the 13 other starts he made on the season weren’t all stinkers, the veteran struggled to find consistency. His fastball velocity was down a tick, and he was having a hard time missing bats. All the while he was battling injuries.

Eflin’s first IL stint came on April 9. A right lat strain put him on the shelf for a month. He returned on May 11 and made nine straight starts, but the results were poor. In that time he tossed 44 innings, struck out 34, walked 10, and gave up 14 home runs. Over that nine-start stretch he had a 7.16 ERA/6.48 FIP. On June 30 he went back on the IL with lower back discomfort. The Orioles reactivated him a month later, he made two starts, and was then done for the year.

Ultimately, the decision was made that Eflin would need surgery on his back. The pitcher indicated that it had been a nagging concern for him dating back years, and it was time to get it fixed. In mid-August, Eflin underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy surgery. He expected to be ready for spring training.

Where he would end up pitching was a mystery though. The Orioles were back in the market for arms, but expected to be seeking upgrades. Eflin, it seemed, was hoping for a one-year “prove-it” deal to show the league he was worthy of the multi-year commitment he was chasing. In the end, both sides came back together in late December on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027.

The speculation right now indicates the the Orioles may go into the season with a six-man rotation. That would include Eflin, who is looking to build himself back up after throwing just 71.1 big league innings in 2025. Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers are two other prominent arms in the rotation that didn’t pitch full seasons last summer either. Using six starters provides some protection for all of them.

However, the Orioles have been particularly cautious with Eflin this spring. As of this writing, he’s made just one appearance in a Grapefruit League game, tossing two innings on March 5. Maybe he has built himself up more on the back fields or in bullpens, but usually teams want their starters doing more in-game work by this point in camp. For comparison, Bradish and Chris Bassitt both have more than 10 innings under their belt this spring.

That opens the door for an IL stint for Eflin to begin the year. It doesn’t mean he’s hurt, but rather that he’s behind. The team could take advantage of the off days built into the early part of the schedule, put him on the IL for two weeks and not really miss a beat.

Whether he begins the year on the IL or not, the projection systems are not expecting the soon-t0-be-32-year-old to have a full workload:

• ZiPS: 8-6, 102.7 IP, 4.38 ERA, 6.75 K/9, 1.240 WHIP
• BRef: 6-7, 112 IP, 4.36 ERA, 7.70 K/9, 1.232 WHIP

Those numbers don’t stray too far from his career 4.28 ERA or 7.7 K/9. The salary and single year of commitment the Orioles made seem to indicate that they would be fine with that sort of output. They aren’t turning to Eflin as an ace. He needs to be stable and dependable, right alongside Bassitt and Dean Kremer, in the back half of the Orioles rotation. They would probably like to see him throw closer to 140-150 innings though.

What do you think of these projections? Do you think Eflin will largely remain healthy? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section.

Yesterday the Guardians Spring Breakout roster was finalized. Quincy has a quick rundown of the roster here. Cleveland will be playing the Angels today at 2PM ET and the game can be watched on MLB.com and MLB.tv.

As Spring Training winds down, MLB did a pulse check on where each AL Central team is sitting at this point in Spring Training. Guardians beat writer Tim Stebbins weighed in on Cleveland’s position.

Our Covering the Corner staff is ramping up to Opening Day. We will be previewing each of the AL Central teams. Yesterday it kicked off with the Chicago White Sox.

And we come to our end. Sneaking onto the prospect list is last year’s 55th overall pick, Ryan Mitchell. Good decision guys. As you will see on my list, I’m pretty high on the guy. Here’s the final list in all its glory. I don’t think you guys pick a clear dud this time! As in a player who seems like an obviously bad pick at the time (to me at least) who then doesn’t have a particularly good season. (With apologies to Moises Gomez and Matt Koperniak)

1. JJ Wetherholt (2B)
2. Liam Doyle (LHP)
3. Rainiel Rodriguez (C)
4. Quinn Mathews (LHP)
5. Jurrangelo Cjintje (RHP)
6. Joshua Baez (OF)
7. Leonardo Bernal (C)
8. Jimmy Crooks (C)
9. Brandon Clarke (LHP)
10. Tink Hence (RHP)
11. Tekoah Roby (RHP)
12. Tanner Franklin (RHP)
13. Brycen Mautz (LHP)
14. Nathan Church (OF)
15. Cooper Hjerpe (LHP)
16. Ixan Henderson (LHP)
17. Yairo Padilla (SS)
18. Deniel Ortiz (1B/3B)
19. Yhoiker Fajardo (RHP)
20. Ryan Mitchell (OF)

If you guys are curious, if you go by the percentages of the final vote, the 21st best prospect is Luis Gastelum, although I kind of suspect someone behind him would have jumped ahead of him just because I feel like a decent percentage will not vote for a reliever over a seemingly deserving top 20 position player prospect. Who that player would be though is anyone’s guess. Jesus Baez was next, with 27 votes, followed by Tai Peete, with 24, and then Blaze Jordan at 23. Literally any one of those guys could have been voted as the 21st best prospect in my opinion. My gut says Baez though.

My Top 20

This was an extremely difficult top 20 for me to construct. The reason is almost entirely due to the fact that the Cardinals have an incredible amount of high upside, yet probable relievers in their system. In theory, a reliever does not belong in the top 20 of a system as strong as the Cardinals, but technically most of those guys do not have a 0% chance to start, so what percentage chance am I looking for? I don’t really have a great answer to that question.

One way to understand my rankings: I value my belief in them starting quite a bit. If I don’t really believe they’re going to start, they’re not going to be that high on my list. Gordon Graceffo, who ranked 12th on last year’s list by the VEB voters, was not in my top 20. But compared to the decisions I have to make for this year’s list, that was an easy for decision me. Graceffo’s upside pales in comparison to some of the names this year who I think are probably ending up in the bullpen. (LYR is my ranking of this player on last year’s list)

1. JJ Wetherholt (LYR: #2)
2. Raniel Rodriguez (LYR: not in top 20)
3. Liam Doyle (LYR: not in organization)

Last year I put Wetherholt as my second best prospect mainly because him dominating Low A did not really tell us anything and he didn’t really have any power there. I went out on a limb for my #1 pick as you will later see, which was a very bad decision, but it was basically nitpicking. No such issues this year. He hit better at AAA than he did at AA and he hit better at AA than he did at Low A. Also, his power sure showed up. MLB-ready on Day One of the MLB season. Super easy decision.

As far as Doyle versus Rodriguez, I just came up with too many reasons to pick Rodriguez. Rodriguez will be 19 in High A, Doyle is likely to be 22 in AA. Doyle has some reliever risk, injury concerns, and a little bit of a one-season wonder concerns, and just in general, betting on a position player is typically the better bet. The main argument against Rodriguez is that he’s farther away, but he honestly might not be that much farther away than Doyle and he’s three years younger. I’ll quote Baseball Prospectus here:

“As one of the youngest hitters in the league, he was in the top quarter of 2025 Florida State League hitters on basically every meaningful batted ball metric, including average exit velocity, 90th-percentile exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and pulled fly-ball rate. His contact rates and overall bat-to-ball skills trend around average, and average contact with this type of power at this age portend huge offensive outcomes. (It all looks right, too.) Combine all of this with a selectively aggressive zone presence, and you have about as elite a skill grouping as you can get from a catcher this young. Had Rodriguez remained in Philadelphia instead of returning to the Dominican Republic before signing, he very well could’ve been the first pick in last summer’s amateur draft.”

4. Jurrangelo Cjintje (LYR: Not in organization)

5. Joshua Baez (LYR: Not in top 20)

6. Quinn Mathews (LYR: #3)

I am ranking these three in this order because of upside. I think Cjintje might even be underrated because his numbers as a left-handed pitcher really dragged down his numbers, they were really that bad. On the flipside, he really was that good as a right-handed pitcher, throwing nearly 100 mph with a strong breaking pitch and improving change. He was drafted as a project and has made more progress faster than expected, so I think that’s a very good sign.

As for Joshua Baez, yeah I’m a believer. The fact that he’s only done it for one season is just enough to get him placed 5th, and I think if he had a better history, it’d be difficult to not put him above Cjintje, because position player over pitcher. So I’m hedging a tiny bit. As for Mathews, I just don’t think he’s competing, upside-wise, with the guys ahead of him. It’s not that I’m low on him, I’m just that high on the first five guys.

7. Leonardo Bernal (LYR: #5)

8. Tekoah Roby (LYR: #7)

9. Yhoiker Fajardo (LYR: Not in organization)

This is where I lose 90 percent of you. Remember what I said above. I place a lot of emphasis on my belief in a guy sticking at starter. I have a probably irrational belief that Roby will stick at starter. If you ask me to explain what distinguishes him from the other guys who I mostly don’t think will start, I don’t think I have a good answer for you. But he’s been consistently pretty good when healthy with the exception of 2024. He was truly excellent in AA last season and then pretty solid at Memphis, good enough that had he not gotten injured, we’d place him in the same bucket as Quinn Mathews, wanting to know when and not if he’ll get chances to start this year. Believe it or not, me ranking him 8th is me taking into account his Tommy John surgery, because he’d probably be higher if he were healthy.

As far as Fajardo, I will point out that Baseball Prospectus also has him ranked 9th, so I’m not completely off my rocker here. His performance coupled with the fact that he was 18 was hard for me to ignore. He’s already built up his workload up to 72 innings and will be primed to throw 100 this upcoming season, which puts him in a much better spot than the comparable 19-year-olds who got drafted last season. BP notes that he just started throwing a kick change last year and it immediately flashed above average. He already has a fairly strong slider and a mid-90s fastball, and given his age there may be room for even more growth. I’ve mentioned he is in a good position to enter a top 100 list next season, and I don’t think it would make sense to rank him much lower than this if I truly believed that.

10. Jimmy Crooks (LYR: #6)

11. Jesus Baez (LYR: not in organization)

Yeah I’m just straight up ignoring the “character concerns.” I’m not going to say it’s just a Keith Law thing, but nothing remotely centering around work ethic or maturity was mentioned on either Baseball Prospectus or MLB Pipeline. He was also 20 when Law saw whatever he saw that made him go nuclear on him. I’d take it a little more seriously if he were 24, but he just started to be able to legally drink in the US about 20 days ago. Ignoring that, he’s a 21-year-old who has earned his way to start the season in AA who is not expected to stay at SS, but who is still playing games at SS (14 after the trade) which makes me think he shouldn’t really be bad at 2B or 3B and maybe even good. This is an age pick.

In terms of Crooks, his drop may seem harsh, but I really did not like that his K% and BB% both went way in the wrong direction. And I mean AAA. His performance in the majors did not help. I liked his offensive profile in the past because he walked about 10-11% of the time and struck out around 21-22%. Those numbers went to 8% and 26% in AAA and with his MLB performance, ZiPS dropped his projected BB% to below 7% and his K% to above 27%. Yes, he has great defense (though I’m skeptical of the 70 grade FG gives him), but in my internal calculus, most outcomes result in him being a defensive-oriented backup.

12. Tink Hence (LYR: #1)

13. Cooper Hjerpe (LYR: #9)

14. Ryan Mitchell (LYR: not in organization)

I don’t really expect either Hence or Hjerpe to start at this point. But they’re in very similar spots, both needing their innings managed to such an extent that they are somewhat likely to end up in the MLB bullpen by the end of this season assuming health. Hence is higher simply because he’s 23, and thus I think they’ll always wonder if they can move him back to starting for the next 3-4 years whereas with Hjerpe, I kind of feel like he’s either starting next season or he’ll just be relegated to the bullpen for good.

I like Ryan Mitchell a lot and I’m taking a chance here. I’m just noticing that he got spring training chances, only three of them, but I’d venture to guess most high school draft picks do not get an at-bat in spring training the year after they’re drafted. So there is a chance he’s sent to Palm Beach and not rookie league. In addition, from what I’ve read, his hit tool and approach seem less risky than your typical high school prospect to bank on.

15. Brandon Clarke (LYR: not in organization)

16. Brycen Mautz (LYR: Not in top 20)

17. Ixan Henderson (LYR: Not in top 20, but was in my honorable mentions)

Okay, so I think Clarke being this low might get the most attention. I don’t particularly care how high your potential is if I don’t believe you’ll start. And boy, Clarke makes Cooper Hjerpe look like Mark Buerhle. Hjerpe at least threw 77 and 103 innings back in college. Clarke had Tommy John surgery at 16 in 2019, missed his freshman season at Alabama from thoracic outlet syndrome, causing him to transfer to a junior college. He had a stress fracture in his shoulder that caused him to miss most of his first season there, throwing just 3.2 innings. He finally stayed healthy enough to throw 74 innings in 2024, which led to him being drafted

I’m actually surprised how highly Clarke is ranking everywhere given his injury history. This is about as bad of an injury history as you can get. And now we’re throwing some weird injuries into the mix, with blisters and an aneurysm causing him to miss at least the first two months of this season. I mean look at this picture, this looks like a guy whose arm is a ticking time bomb and we’re losing valuable “healthy” time to blisters and aneurysm in his throwing arm?

The consensus seems to be that Ixan Henderson is the better scouted starting pitcher, but Mautz had a better K%, better BB% and got more groundballs, so I struggle to put Henderson above him.

18. Nathan Church (LYR: Not in top 20)

19. Deniel Ortiz (LYR: Hadn’t debuted)

20. Braden Davis (LYR: Hadn’t debuted)

Church was three days away from not being considered a prospect and I really wish he wasn’t considered one honestly, because I don’t know what to do with him on a prospect list. I would probably be considered the low man on his offense, just because his combination of probably not walking (6.3 BB% projection) and very little power (.096 ISO) is a tough profile to make into a good hitter or even an average one. Here’s hoping his increased bat speed means more power. There is a potential downside though and that’s more strikeouts, and you just got to hope it doesn’t cancel out his power gains cause that’s his main offensive talent right now.

Ortiz isn’t higher primarily because from what I can tell, he’s very limited defensively, which is putting all the onus on his bat to work out. Look at Alec Burleson. Defense at 1B pending, but if he’s a 120 wRC+ hitter, he’s probably an average player. That’s just a high bar to expect from a prospect. I was very surprised how quickly Braden Davis was dismissed by this group, but I won’t do the same. He posted some absurd strikeout numbers and I know he has some control issues as far as walks go, but I’m kind of banking on the theory that a pitcher who comes to camp with increased stuff will initially struggle with command. He has a 50 command potential on Fangraphs and I can’t ignore that he struck out a third of batters if that’s in the cards.

Honorable Mentions

I realized at the back half of my list that I was going to be excluding people who I just assumed were going to be in my top 20. But I made that assumption for something like 25 guys, because I realized no matter who I added, someone wasn’t being added who I took for granted would be on the list.

Tanner Franklin is not on the list just because of how far he has to go to start games. I don’t know his game logs in college, but he maxed out last year at 2.1 innings pitched. I would be surprised if he pitched more than that in college because he averaged 1.4 innings per appearance. So I don’t really think he’ll even be asked to go 5 innings this year, or at least not very often. And I could handle his numbers in college better if he wasn’t a pure reliever. I’m not NOT a believer, but I think I’m just going to need to see some evidence that he can start in the future.

I didn’t expect to leave Yairo Padilla off my list, but to be frank, I did not realize scouts were not particularly high on his defense at SS. He’s basically a prospect because he has a lot of power potential, but he’s shown zero so far. There is value in him still performing more or less the same as when he was in the DSL so we can trust him a little more, but not enough for my top 20.

I actually wrote out a whole section about Cade Crossland, but I realized he did not have a good case over Braden Davis. But he had strong K/BB numbers in the SEC, which is close enough to Low A in quality that I trust he’s more or less ready for High A even though I don’t expect him to start there. I also kind of thought I’d find an excuse to put Won-Bin Cho on the list, but I couldn’t justify that one. I think he’s been written off too soon though. I also thought I would include Tai Peete, but whenever you pair him head-to-head to a player, it’s like “well no I think I need to choose Nathan Church over him.”

I didn’t think I would include him, but I certainly want to believe in Blaze Jordan. I want to believe in Chase Davis. Hell, I want to believe in Colton Ledbetter. But they all have enough question marks to rather easily leave them off this list. Chen-Wei Lin wasn’t ever really considered when I actually made my list, but while the voting happened, I was thinking he might slip in later on, but yeah just way too many names.

Couple other shout-outs are to Andrew Dutkanych, mostly for you guys. Every year, there’s a player who I think I’m high on and then your guys voting habits tell me you are much higher. That happened to Victor Scott back in the day, when I put him on the top 20 first and you guys didn’t and then the next year you placed him 3rd. I kept expecting Dutkanych to lose votes and aside from the final vote for #20, he didn’t. Also Luis Gastelum, you came at the wrong time, you’d be in the top 20 a couple years ago for sure.