Category: Sports News

I’ve written a couple posts in spring training about the ABS challenge system and how teams are going to react to it. It seems like an element tailor-built for the Yankees; the team preaches control over the strike zone at the plate and was the first to really lean into pitch-framing almost two decades ago. Knowing the 17” that is home plate is doctrine for the organization, and it shouldn’t surprise us then how good the Yankees have been at challenging so far this spring.

Headed into play against the Cubs yesterday, Yankees hitters had challenged 48 calls, getting 24 (50 percent) correct. That’s more reviews and more wins than any other team, and the ninth-highest “win rate”. Perhaps most important for a team that has at times generated criticism for strikeouts, the Yankees have cut the sixth-most strikeouts because of their talent for overturning calls. On the defensive side, it’s more of the same — the most challenges, the most wins, but more at the league median rate of 59 percent win rate. Five pitchers have also issued challenges, with only two of them successful and just a single review per hurler.

There’s that old rule of thumb that a 75 percent success rate is the breakeven point for stolen bases, if you can’t be successful 75 percent of the time the gains of an extra 90 feet are undercut by how many outs you freely give out. However, the flip side of that rule is that if you’re stealing at a 90 percent rate or so, you’re probably not trying as often as you should — you’re leaving runs on the table by being too cautious.

It seems the Yankees have the same philosophy when it comes to challenging umpire’s calls. They’re OK with having some losses on the ledger as long as they also get the most wins. It’s interesting that the three potential catchers the club will carry on Opening Day (Austin Wells, J.C. Escarra, and Ben Rice) went a combined 15-for-23 in challenges this spring, a sterling 65 percent success rate. Many of the team’s missed challenges on defense came from camp invitees like Miguel Palma and Ali Sánchez. The guys making the calls at the MLB level seem to be pretty on point with what is and isn’t a strike.

This trend is echoed, perhaps unsurprisingly, by the hitting group. That 50 percent success rate mentioned above grows to 56 percent when we only include the players that will be in the dugout on Wednesday in San Francisco — also, I tend to think Aaron Judge will be very good at this kind of thing, and a long World Baseball Classic for him meant he only issued one failed challenge in Grapefruit League play. Just as with the catchers, the success in the review system seems to come mostly from the guys already good enough to be on an MLB roster.

That five pitchers got nominal challenges also should inform us of the April challenge policy. I remember seeing Fernando Cruz working in the back half of a game a couple weeks ago, challenge a ball that was clearly low and with the Yankees having a challenge in hand he seemed to ask for a review just to get some personal experience with the system. It doesn’t seem like the club is particularly interested in letting pitchers challenge much, trusting the much more stable catcher to evaluate.

It looks like the strategy for the start of the year is a very liberal approach to who can challenge calls at the plate or behind it, but not from the rubber, and that the team is not afraid of burning a challenge. Contrast this with the Tigers or Mets, who in spring were extremely controlled with who was allowed to ask for a review, and both clubs ended many games with a challenge still in hand.

If there’s one critique of the Yankees over the last ten years that I have, it’s that they don’t always seem to lean into the urgency of a skid or speedbump. 162 games is a long season, water needs time to find it’s level and all that, but I worry that that attitude is too pervasive within the organizational culture. They seem to be breaking from that philosophy in how they approach challenges — if you can overturn a call in the third inning, and that leads to an early advantage, do it rather than wait for a call in the eighth that may never come.

I’ve been waiting for the ABS system at the MLB level for a long time, and I tend to agree with the strategy the Yankees appear to be taking in how to use it. That approach may change as the season goes on, and I suspect umpiring will get even better than it is once they re-learn the strike zone, but for the first round of real baseball, the Yankees are getting it right when it comes to reviews.

Good morning, Camden Chatters.

After five weeks and more than 30 exhibition games, we can officially call it a wrap on Orioles spring training for 2026. The Birds played their final tune-up game yesterday with a 2-0 shutout win at Nationals Park in which two of their projected starting pitchers, Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt, combined for seven scoreless innings. Baz racked up five strikeouts in five innings in his first game appearance since March 4, while Bassitt retired all six batters he faced to cap his excellent spring. Yennier Cano and Dietrich Enns, both of whom appear certain to make the Opening Day bullpen, worked a perfect inning apiece to finish the Orioles’ exhibition slate.

That’s it for the warm-up. Practice time is over. The next time the Orioles take the field will be in two days for their regular season opener against the Twins at Camden Yards. From here on out, the games all count. Hopefully that’ll be a good thing.

Even with Opening Day so tantalizingly close, the O’s still have a lot of work to do to whittle down their roster to 26. After releasing veteran infielder Thairo Estrada and reassigning Maverick Handley and Jhonkensy “Big Christmas” Noel to the minors yesterday, the Orioles still have 39 players hanging around. We know a few of them will be going on the injured list — including Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Andrew Kittredge, and Luís Vázquez — but there are some tougher decisions to be made as well. The bubble players have completed their auditions and now the O’s need to decide which ones will make the cut.

Of course, even those who don’t make the Opening Day roster will likely show up for the Birds at some point this year. It’s a 162-game season and the Orioles are going to need a lot of help to get through it. Ideally, it won’t require 70 players like last year.

Take a two-day breather, Orioles fans, and then settle in for the six-month (maybe seven-month?) marathon. On Thursday afternoon, it all begins.

Links

2026 Positional Power Rankings: Bullpen (No. 16-30)

The bad news is that FanGraphs ranks the Orioles’ bullpen in the bottom half of the league. The good news is that they’re #16. So I guess they’re the best of the worst?

Would Orioles send Cowser to minors? | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com

I hope it won’t come to that, but yeesh, Cowser looked bad in spring training. He did hit a nice Eutaw Street dinger in Sunday’s exhibition, though. Colton is so back!

Vázquez (broken thumb) among late injuries as O’s wrap spring – MLB.com

Jake Rill has more on the injury to Vázquez, who was hit by a pitch at the worst possible time when he was a strong candidate to make the roster. It probably clinches a spot for Jeremiah Jackson, though the lack of a defensive caddy for Coby Mayo makes me wince a little.

As RHP Zach Eflin’s arm slot dropped his ERA increased – Steve Melewski

It turns out that not having a bad back is helping Eflin become a better pitcher. Funny how that works!

Craig Albernaz and Blake Butera begin their major league managing careers with honest talk — and razzing – The Baltimore Banner

The Orioles’ and Nationals’ new managers are BFFs who have known each other for over a decade, and now they’ll be jockeying for mid-Atlantic bragging rights. I think Albernaz is going to win that battle, which is not to say I’m convinced the Orioles will be good.

Orioles birthdays and history

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Two former Orioles were born on this day, but you have to go way back to the early days of the franchise to find them. The late left-hander Dick Kryhoski (b. 1925, d. 2007) was a member of the inaugural 1954 Orioles, and the late righty Saul Rogovin (b. 1922, d. 1995) pitched 14 games the following year, 1955.

On this date in 2014, in an end-of-spring-training trade, the Orioles acquired infielder Steve Lombardozzi — who grew up in Maryland — from the Tigers for veteran shortstop Álex González. Lombardozzi was part of the Birds’ Opening Day roster for that fantastic 2014 season, but played just 20 games and was gone by May. González, a 15-year veteran, played only nine games for the Tigers before retiring, so it was a pretty pointless trade on both sides.

Anxious may be the best word to describe the vibe in Anaheim before the Angels fly to Houston ahead of Thursday afternoon’s season opener versus the Astros.

New manager Kurt Suzuki has infused enthusiasm into a club that has not finished above .500 since 2015 and has missed the playoffs for an MLB-worst 11 straight seasons. The Angels went 72-90 and finished last in the American League West, though they were nine games better than 2024 — when they set a franchise record for losses with 99. Time will tell if the Halos have enough talent to contend in a division the Seattle Mariners are heavily favored to win.

A special assistant for the Angels the last three seasons, Suzuki signed a one-year contract last October and is the team’s fifth full-time manager since Mike Scioscia stepped down in 2018 after compiling a franchise-record 1,650 victories over 19 seasons. Suzuki spent 16 seasons as a major league catcher, retiring in 2022.

“It’s been fun,” Suzuki said prior to Sunday’s Freeway Series game, a 13-5 loss to the Dodgers at Angel Stadium. “Obviously I’ve never managed before but just being out of the game just as recently as a few years ago I understand the situations of the game, the speed of the game and those type of things. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy by any means. It’s a lot of work, but I’m having a great time, we’re surrounded by great people and the guys have been awesome so it’s been all good.”

Read more:Angels release utilityman Chris Taylor, reliever Hunter Strickland

As a former player, Suzuki will trust his instincts.

“For me, it's attention to detail, it's fundamentals, it's just really being a baseball player,” he said. “Sometimes in this day and age of analytics and all that stuff you can kind of get lost in that sometimes. Not to say forget about it, but I think the more you can just play baseball how it's supposed to be played, move guys over, situational hitting, things you grew up doing, if we can kind of keep that style and play hard and all that, I like our chances.”

Franchise player Mike Trout, who has 404 career homers (all with the Angels), enters his 15th season healthy and eager to resume patrolling center field after missing 26 games with a left knee injury in 2025 and primarily serving as the designated hitter. He hit 26 homers. Moving to right field from center is Jo Adell (who blasted a team-best 37 homers last season) and Josh Lowe, acquired from Tampa Bay in January, is expected to be the starter in left field, replacing last season’s hit leader Taylor Ward, who got traded to Baltimore in November in exchange for pitcher Grayson Rodriguez.

Jorge Soler, who homered twice Sunday, could see plenty of action in the outfield.

“It feels great but this is just an exhibition game,” Soler said after his four-RBI night. “We faced good pitchers throughout spring training. I just try to make adjustments and take good pitches.”

Said Suzuki: “Jorge’s had a great spring. For him to have some good at bats wasn’t shocking to me with the spring he’s had. I’m very excited for Jorge. He’s in a good spot mentally and physically.”

Read more:Shaikin: Angels should match Zach Neto's loyalty and give him a long-term deal

Returning at first base is Nolan Schanuel, who had 129 hits last year, while the departure of versatile infielder Luis Rengifo to Milwaukee in February left an opportunity at second base for veteran Adam Frazier, who signed a minor league deal with the Angels as camp opened and batted .300 in the Cactus League. Potential All-Star Zach Neto is back at shortstop while Yoan Moncada was brought back on a one-year, $4-million contract, to handle the hot corner.

“I like where we’re at,” said catcher Logan O’Hoppe, who last season batted .213 with 19 home runs and will be backed up by Travis D’Arnaud for the second year in a row. “He [Suzuki] has created a really awesome environment to come into every night and I appreciate his trust in us to get the work done. I’ve made a lot of changes to my swing in particular and I’ve just tried to maximize both sides of my game.”

Pitching depth is a big concern. At the top of the starting rotation will be right-hander Jose Soriano (who posted a 10-11 record last year with a 4.26 earned run average), followed by lefties Yusei Kikuchi (who had a team-high 174 strikeouts last year) and Reid Detmers. In the fourth and fifth spots initially will be righties Jack Kochanowicz and Ryan Johnson.

“We’re going with that,” Suzuki said. “Jack and Ryan both had great camps, they’ve been working their butts off. We feel they deserve it, they’ve earned it and we’re really excited for them.”

Rodriguez will begin the season on the injured list with what Suzuki called a dead arm issue.

“We’ll be careful with Grayson, we’ll work him back slowly, but play it cautious,” Suzuki added. “He hasn’t thrown a bullpen yet.”

Read more:Photos: Mike Trout and the Angels begin workouts at spring training in Arizona

After signing a one-year deal in December, right-hander Alek Manoah struggled in spring training but could be a reliever.

“He’s working his way through some things,” Suzuki said of the 28-year-old Manoah, who was an All-Star with Toronto in 2022. “Things change over the course of the year so we’ll see how he’s progressing. He’s a great teammate and he has the potential to be a great pitcher for us.”

Suzuki has not named a designated closer but among the relievers will be Drew Pomeranz and Jordan Romano (both signed one-year deals in the offseason; left-handers Chase Silseth and Brent Suter; and righties Sam Bachman, Kirby Yates, Ryan Zeferjahn and Walbert Urena.

“It’s something we’re talking through,” he said. “We have a few guys who’ve done it before at a high level that had some success closing games pitching at the back end of the bullpen. Right now, we’re still looking at our options and seeing how it’s going to play out. Is it easier to have one guy you can name as closer? Absolutely, but right now we’re seeing how it plays out… maybe matchups are better, maybe naming a closer is better. As we get into the season we’ll see.”

Get the best, most interesting and strangest stories of the day from the L.A. sports scene and beyond from our newsletter The Sports Report.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Late last week, the Cardinals announced that Richard Fitts would begin the 2026 season with AAA Memphis, thus clarifying who the rotation will be to begin the year. Matthew Liberatore is privileged with the opportunity to start Opening Day against the Tampa Bay Rays, the club that selected him 17th overall in 2019, followed by Michael McGreevy, Dustin May, Kyle Leahy, and Andre Pallante rounds out the initial 5. Several factors shape the who, why, and when other options will filter into the mix. FanGraphs ZIPS projections, and projections in general, are not a perfect science and should be taken with a grain of salt. However, they do offer a direction or snapshot and can be useful in establishing an expectation.

I don’t want to mislead any fans into thinking the 2026 Cardinals are the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers, and the projections just flat got it wrong. But I do have more optimism that the Cardinals’ rotation will outperform its season projection. I went through and calculated the fWAR projections and ranked all 30 MLB Opening Day rotations to establish this baseline and, fingers crossed, the conclave of Cardinals starting pitchers will outperform the industry’s anticipation of season-long performance.

30th – Colorado Rockies – 5.4 fWAR

Kyle Freeland

Michael Lorenzen

Jose Quintana

Tomoyuki Sugano

Chase Dollander

It seems likely that it will be another long season in the Mile High City. Chase Dollander should offer Rockies fans some intrigue and upside, but figuring out pitching in Colorado is Paul Depodesta’s new challenge, and I’m intrigued to watch how he attacks that opportunity over the next couple of years.

29th – Chicago White Sox – 6.6 fWAR

Shane Smith

Anthony Kay

Davis Martin

Sean Burke

Erick Fedde

The Pale Hose features a rotation fronted by 2025 All-Star Shane Smith, who was the number 1 pick in the Rule 5 Draft in 2025. Anthony Kay is looking to follow in the footsteps of fellow rotation mate Erick Fedde in establishing himself after a stint playing overseas. Davis Martin and Sean Burke both feature some interesting stuff but are probably back-end starters/depth, and Fedde is looking to recapture the magic he found in Chicago in 2024. David Sandlin, Noah Schultz, and Hagen Smith are all options with interesting upside who could factor into their rotation at some point in 2026, but it’s another building year for the Sox.

28th – Washington Nationals – 6.7 fWAR

Cade Cavalli

Miles Mikolas

Foster Griffin

Jake Irvin

Zach Littell

Cavalli is looking to make good on his prospect hype from a couple of seasons ago. Old friend Miles Mikolas and Zach Littell look to provide veteran innings. Foster Griffin, like Kay, is trying his hand at a comeback from overseas. Jake Irvin is someone who could stick around a while for the future of their rotation with a big breaking ball. Maintaining his FB velo will be key to his continued development. As Paul Toboni takes over in Washington, this group will likely get better in future seasons, but for now, the club is going to bide its time for development to get them back to contention.

* 27th – St. Louis Cardinals – 7.0 fWAR *

Matthew Liberatore

Michael McGreevy

Dustin May

Kyle Leahy

Andre Pallante

Unsurprisingly, after an offseason that saw the Cardinals shed several veteran players, the Cardinals are not expected to be very competitive. However, if you believe that Liberatore can take another step, Dustin May returning to his normal self, Andre Pallante bouncing back, and Kyle Leahy being compared to guys like Michael King and Clarke Schmidt by Eno Sarris of The Athletic in a radio spot he did for 101 ESPN in St. Louis. Then you include the potential of guys like Richard Fitts, Quinn Matthews, Hunter Dobbins, and possibly Brycen Mautz making starts for the Cardinals in 2026, and you can see how there is potential to outperform this projection. The Cardinals aren’t where they want to be, but Chaim Bloom has the team positioned to take important steps forward in the coming seasons.

26th – San Diego Padres – 7.0 fWAR

Michael King

Nick Pivetta

Randy Vazquez

German Marquez

Walker Buehler

For a playoff team from a season ago, this feels like a concerning step back, as the team prepares to be sold away from the Seidler family. Michael King and Nick Pivetta are solid, dependable mid-rotation starters for a contending team, Vazquez has some interesting stuff, and Marquez and Buehler are looking to bounce back after moving on from other NL West clubs over the past couple of years. The return of Joe Musgrove at some point this season will help, and the club will have JP Sears and knuckleballer Matt Waldron waiting in the wings in AAA. This could be another rotation that looks very different by midseason.

25th – Arizona Diamondbacks – 8.1 fWAR

Zac Gallen

Ryne Nelson

Eduardo Rodriguez

Michael Soroka

Brandon Pfaadt

The D-backs have an electric offense highlighted by Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo. Former Cardinal minor leaguer Zac Gallen headlines the Arizona rotation again after not getting the contract he thought he would get, being hurt by the presence of the QO. Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt are younger starters hoping to stabilize after inconsistencies plagued them in 2025. Eduardo Rodriguez had a strong WBC finale performance, and Michael Soroka will provide veteran stability and not a whole lot of depth at the top of their system. Everything will have to break right for Arizona to find itself in the playoff picture this season.

24th – Las Vegas/Sacramento Athletics – 8.2 fWAR

Luis Severino

Jeffrey Springs

Aaron Civale

Jacob Lopez

Luis Morales

This A’s group is one that I think can be sneaky competitive this year. The offense is scary and only going to get better with the eventual arrival of top prospect Leo De Vries. Luis Severino leads the A’s rotation once again after a strange 2025, where he was solid on the road, but Sutter Park is not meant to house big league players, and how the A’s try to maneuver that unique challenge will be interesting to watch in season 2 as they await their build to be completed in Las Vegas. Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale are solid mid-rotation starters who will provide solid floors. Jacob Lopez is a funky lefty who uses extreme angles to keep batters off balance. The real X factor for the rotation is Luis Morales, who I think has real 2-3 starter upside and the potential arrivals of Gage Jump and Braden Nett this group could sneak into the playoffs as a WC team.

23rd – Milwaukee Brewers – 8.2 fWAR

Jacob Misiorowski

Chad Patrick

Brandon Woodruff

Kyle Harrison

Brandon Sproat

This projection is probably wrong by ZIPS, and that feels like the only fair way to start this based on recent seasons. All 5 starters offer varying levels of upside, and the Brewers continue to stay ahead of the downward curve after moving on from Freddy Peralta this offseason. While I’m skeptical that they wind up being better than Pittsburgh or Chicago in the division this season, I am still cautiously hoping I’m not wrong about that. Of course they also have enviable depth with Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, and Shane Drohan, along with an injured Quinn Priester waiting in the wings at varying points of the season.

22nd – Los Angeles Angels – 8.3 fWAR

Jose Soriano

Yusei Kikuchi

Reid Detmers

Jack Kochanowicz

Ryan Johnson

This group of 5 offers some intrigue and upside. Soriano is a high-90s sinker guy who has the raw stuff to be a potential front-of-the-rotation starter, and Kikuchi is the veteran stability. Reid Detmers is jumping back into the rotation after finding his footing in the bullpen a season ago, much like Matthew Liberatore has done with St. Louis. Kochanowicz and Johnson are looking to establish themselves in the rotation and could raise the floor of the Angels should they do so. Grayson Rodriguez could further boost the upside of this group if he is able to find consistent health. Other options you could see pitched for LAA this year could include Sam Aldegheri, Caden Dana, and former Blue Jays All-Star Alek Manoah.

21st – Miami Marlins – 8.3 fWAR

Sandy Alcantara

Eury Perez

Max Meyer

Chris Paddack

Janson Junk

It’s hard to find a better trio of “stuff” from a top 3 in a big league rotation between Alcantara, Perez, and Meyer. Chris Paddack is a veteran back-end starter who should provide some solid innings, and Janson Junk outpitched Braxton Garrett for the final spot in their rotation. Top prospects Roby Snelling and Thomas White are poised to join the rotation at some point this season, which could push this group to even higher heights, and Peter Bendix and Co. are cooking with gas when it comes to their pitching pipeline.

20th – Cleveland Guardians – 8.7 fWAR

Tanner Bibee

Gavin Williams

Slade Cecconi

Joey Cantillo

Parker Messick

A classic Cleveland rotation that features young, productive arms that will almost certainly have them competing with the rest of a competitive AL Central. Bibee and Williams are strong foundational starters at the top of the Cleveland rotation. Slade Cecconi took a step forward last season after coming over from Arizona, and Cantillo and Messick are solid floor lefties who will give the Guardians a chance to win every night in 2026.

19th – New York Yankees – 8.9 fWAR

Max Fried

Cam Schlittler

Will Warren

Ryan Weathers

Luis Gil

This is a really solid 5-man rotation as is, but the Yankees expect to have Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt return at various points this season, which will almost certainly give them the top rotation in the AL East when October rolls around. That’s not even mentioning Elmer Rodriguez or Carlos Lagrange who have big big stuff who could debut in 2026. The Yankees from a depth and upside perspective are enviable on both fronts.

18th – Chicago Cubs – 9.0 fWAR

Matthew Boyd

Cade Horton

Shota Imanaga

Edward Cabrera

Jameson Taillon

The 2026 Chicago Cubs will feature a rotation that should give them a reasonable chance to win every night. Horton and Cabrera offer upside and stuff. Boyd and Taillon offer veteran floor and stability. The X factor is Imanaga. Last season, the league started to catch up to Imanaga, and after returning by accepting the QO this past offseason, it will be very interesting to watch how he, in particular, responds to struggles late last season. Beyond that the Cubs have Colin Rea, Javier Assad, and Ben Brown, who could make starts for them, and top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins is a name to keep an eye on as well.

17th – Minnesota Twins – 9.5 fWAR

Joe Ryan

Bailey Ober

Simeon Woods-Richardson

Taj Bradley

Mick Abel

Never a bad thing to start your rotation with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Taj Bradley are guys who have had big league success and are looking to bounce back in 2026. Woods-Richardson and Abel are young arms with upside, looking to establish themselves. Pablo Lopez being out the entire season with TJ is a tough loss, but it shouldn’t automatically disqualify them in an open AL central. Their offense will be one to track as top prospect Walker Jenkins to go along with Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall, and Royce Lewis could make them a surprise in 2026 after selling their entire bullpen at the deadline in 2025. Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Connor Prielipp, and Kendry Rojas are all names to keep an eye on as guys who could make starts for them in 2026 as well.

16th – New York Mets – 9.5 fWAR

Freddy Peralta

David Peterson

Nolan McLean

Clay Holmes

Kodai Senga

A much-improved 5-man group from a season ago. After a disastrous collapse by the Mets in the 2nd half of last season, this group should avoid the same fate their comrades did a season ago. Freddy Peralta is a legit number 1 starter, and Nolan McLean looks to be the future number 1 in Queens. David Peterson and Clay Holmes are both solid mid-rotation options, and Kodai Senga is looking to bounce back. Behind the initial 5, you have Jonah Tong, Sean Manaea, and Tobias Myers. I expect the Mets to be in the thick of things the entire season. They’ll certainly have their hands full with the rest of the NL East sans Washington.

15th – San Francisco Giants – 9.8 fWAR

Logan Webb

Robbie Ray

Tyler Mahle

Adrian Houser

Landon Roupp

This is a veteran group assembled by POBO Buster Posey. Webb and Ray are proven top of the rotation arms, Mahle and Houser are solid mid-rotation offerings, and Landon Roupp won the 5th spot after Hayden Birdsong went down with TJ. There are some young depth options that will probably factor in at some point given Ray and Mahle’s injury history. Those names could include top prospect Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, and Keaton Winn. The Giants should be competetive in the NL West but overcoming the behemoth that is the LA Dodgers is an exceptionally tall task.

14th – Toronto Blue Jays – 10.2 fWAR

Kevin Gausmann

Dylan Cease

Eric Lauer

Cody Ponce

Max Scherzer

This is a very top-heavy rotation with Guasmann and Cease forming an awesome 1-2 punch. Lauer and Ponce are more depth back-end guys who are forced into this spot due to injuries to Jose Berrios, Shane Bieber, Bowden Francis, and Trey Yesavage. Max Scherzer, who is still effective in the twilight of his career, will probably ramp it up a notch in the 2nd half of the season, and as Yesavage and Bieber work their way back from injury, this is a group that I expect will have a stronger 2nd half than 1st. Top lefty prospect Rickey Tiedemann is also close and could debut this season as well.

13th – Baltimore Orioles – 10.5 fWAR

Trevor Rogers

Kyle Bradish

Shane Baz

Chris Bassitt

Zach Eflin

Rogers had an excellent 2nd half last season and put him back on the map after early career success with Miami. Bradish is back after injury and looking to form a strong trio at the top of the rotation with Rogers and newly acquired Shane Baz. Mike Elias was NOT messing around this offseason and brought in veteran righty Chris Bassitt and brought back Zach Eflin. The Orioles, after a 1-year disappointment, are looking to come back with a vengeance in 2026. Behind those 5 is experienced righty Dean Kremer and top prospect Cade Povich. With a much needed investment on the pitching side and doubled down investment on the offensive side I have every expectation we will see Baltimore back in the playoffs in 2026.

12th – Houston Astros – 10.5 fWAR

Hunter Brown

Christian Javier

Tatsuya Imai

Mike Burrows

Lance McCullers Jr.

I really like the trio of Brown, Imai, and Burrows to build around long-term in Houston. Christian Javier and LMJ are trying to return from injury and re-establish themselves, and we’ve seen that when those guys are healthy, they’re very effective mid to upper rotation options. With Ronel Blanco out for the majority of 2026 due to TJ, you’ll likely see Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, and Miguel Ullola work as the depth options behind the initial 5, with veteran JP France also in the mix as well. After letting Framber Valdez walk in FA, this is now Hunter Brown’s rotation to lead, and I think he is a sneaky dark horse pick for AL Cy Young.

11th – Cincinnati Reds – 10.9 fWAR

Andrew Abbott

Nick Lodolo

Brady Singer

Rhett Lowder

Chase Burns

The loss of Hunter Greene for half the season is a tough one for a Cincy team that is looking to compete in a wide-open NL Central. Though the 1-5 they’re going to roll with to open the season should still give Reds fans some hope. Lodolo, Lowder, and Burns are all top picks over the last several seasons, and Brady Singer and Andrew Abbott provide a strong floor for the rotation until Greene returns. Beyond that, Chase Petty is another name with some mid-rotation upside who could provide some depth. I don’t think the Reds’ offense is going to be all that good and im skeptical the bullpen repeats from a year ago. But their rotation is solid with a lot of upside.

10th – Atlanta Braves – 11.2 fWAR

Chris Sale

Reynaldo Lopez

Spencer Strider

Grant Holmes

Bryce Elder

Into the top 10 and kicking things off is the Atlanta Braves fronted by multi-time Cy Young Winner and future Hall of Famer Chris Sale. Reynaldo Lopez had an unbelievable 2024 and is looking to bounce back with good health in 2026. Speaking of health, “Quadzilla” Spencer Strider is back, and that should really excite Braves fans for what’s to come in 2026. Grant Holmes had a nice 2025 and is a guy who can really spin the baseball and should provide a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Braves. Bryce Elder rounds out the group, but he may not have a super long leash with top prospect JR Ritchie appearing to be very close to ready. Didier Fuentes is another name who impressed in Spring, and veterans Martin Perez and Carlos Carrasco will be a call away in AAA if the injury bug continues to persist.

9th – Kansas City Royals – 11.9 fWAR

Cole Ragans

Michael Wacha

Seth Lugo

Kris Bubic

Noah Cameron

The X factor at the top of the rotation is Cole Ragans and if healthy he changes the entire complexion of this rotation. Beyond that Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are solid mid rotation guys, Kris Bubic broke out last year and found his way onto an All Star team, and Noah Cameron is a guy who avoids the barrell very well and should provide a solid floor at the back end of the rotation. 1-5 this is a group that should allow an exciting Kansas City team to reach the playoffs in 2026 and guys like Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila, and Ben Kdurna could work their way in if injuries play a factor.

8th – Tampa Bay Rays – 12.2 fWAR

Drew Rasmussen

Ryan Pepiot

Shane McClanahan

Nick Martinez

Steven Matz

Drew Rasmussen is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball and the Cardinals get him on Opening Day. Beyond that Ryan Pepiot and Shane McClanahan have the upside to pitch at the front of a rotation and Nick Martinez and Steven Matz are both versatile pitchers at the back of the rotation that if Joe Boyle, Brody Hopkins, or Joe Rock are ready to go at any point in the season those guys can bump to the bullpen and perform in those roles effectively as well. I think the Rays are gonna Ray this year and be one of those teams that nobody really expected, but will be right there at the end in the AL.

7th – Texas Rangers – 12.3 fWAR

Nathan Eovaldi

Jacob DeGrom

MacKenzie Gore

Jack Leiter

Jacob Latz

Eovaldi through Leiter is a really exciting 1-4, and the Rangers should be quite good in 2026 under new Manager Skip Schumaker. Latz is likely just a placeholder until Kumar Rocker or Jordan Montgomery are ready to take that 5 spot. This is where the real upper echelon of pitching rotations begins. Texas will be a disappointment if they are not a playoff team in 2026.

6th – Los Angeles Dodgers – 12.3 fWAR

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tyler Glasnow

Shohei Ohtani

Emmet Sheehan

Roki Sasaki

The eventual inclusion of Blake Snell probably puts them in the top 3 in baseball but with this being the “opening day” rotations this takes a tumble all the way to 6th. World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto leads an exceptional group of Aces ahead of Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani. Sheehan and Sasaki are just an incredible flex for the Dodgers to be able to insert into the rotation. Beyond that a healthy return of Gavin Stone, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, and Landon Knack are all names that will likely see innings for the dodgers by way of how they approach pitching and getting through a full 162.

5th – Seattle Mariners – 12.4 fWAR

Logan Gilbert

Bryan Woo

Luis Castillo

George Kirby

Emerson Hancock

Again, with the caveat of injury to Bryce Miller, you’re probably talking about a top 3 rotation in baseball, and it should be an exciting season of baseball for fans in the Pacific Northwest, as the favorite for the AL West. Logan Gilbert should challenge Tarik Skubal for the Cy Young in 2026, and Bryan Woo, after a breakout 2026, is a very strong number 2. Luis Castillo is the veteran leader of the group and has been since coming over from Cincinnati, and is still an exceptional number 3 starter. George Kirby as the number 4 is good too. You could honestly arrange any of the 4 and feel good about Seattle’s chances any given night. Another opportunity for former top pick Emerson Hancock to show something while Miller is out. Randy Dobnak and Dane Dunning are veteran starters in AAA who will provide depth, and it won’t be too long before Ryan Sloan or Kade Anderson are making their way to Seattle in the coming seasons as well.

4th – Philadelphia Phillies – 12.6 fWAR

Christopher Sanchez

Aaron Nola

Jesus Luzardo

Taijuan Walker

Andrew Painter

With the potential to eventually swap out Taijuan Walker for Zach Wheeler theres no question this is one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. Sanchez is an emerging Ace and just signed an extension to be a Philly for the rest of his prime. Jesus Luzardo, the same deal. Big time stuff, will be a Philly for a long time. Aaron Nola is coming off a rough 2025, but a stable veteran with a ton of big league expirience he will find a way through for a playoff favorite roster. Andrew Painter is an X Factor. The current top pitching prospect for Philadelphia is going to light up radar guns and excite Philly fans for years to come.

3rd – Pittsburgh Pirates – 12.7 fWAR

Paul Skenes

Mitch Keller

Carmen Mlodzinski

Braxton Ashcraft

Bubba Chandler

Of course, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner fronts the top projected rotation in the NL on opening day. Along with steady mid-rotation starter Mitch Keller, the upside of Ashcraft and Chandler really raises the ceiling, and then to top it off, you include the return of Jared Jones at some point this season, and you’re talking about a really, really good group of 5 starters. The questions will be about health, and if the offensive additions will be enough to help them reach the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

2nd – Boston Red Sox – 15.8 fWAR

Garrett Crochet

Sonny Gray

Johan Oviedo

Ranger Saurez

Bryan Bello

Last year’s AL Cy Young runner up and one of the top choices for the award again, Garrett Crochet, leads an exceptional Boston rotation that now also features newcomers Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, and Ranger Saurez. Bryan Bello rounds out the group and is one hell of a number 5 starter. Any rotation that excludes Connelly Early or Payton Tolle from starting the season with the group is almost unfair. Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Patrick Sandoval all work their way back from injury and could pitch important innings for the club as well. The Red Sox have a ridiculous amount of depth and upside that should make them one of the favorites in the AL.

1st – Detroit Tigers – 16.2 fWAR

Tarik Skubal

Framber Valdez

Jack Flaherty

Justin Verlander

Casey Mize

Back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal leads the top projected starting rotation into 2026, and you add Framber Valdez a number 1 caliber in his own right to be Skubal’s number 2 along with Flaherty and Verlander as your 3-4 and Mize, a former number 1 overall pick with a 70 grade splitter, it’s genuinely an all in season for the Tigers and their actions sure seem to indicate as much. Top prospect Kevin McGonigle is projected to start the season with the “Motor City Kitties” as well, and I am very interested in watching what Detroit can do this year.

The Cardinals aren’t a top rotation in baseball, but they do have some interesting upside and the potential to overachieve. But, they don’t have the horses to contend with the big boys in baseball this year. That’s okay, for now, especially when you look at the stockpile of arms that are at the lower levels of the minors. The Cardinals would like to be among the top of this group in the next several years, and the work that the development staff and draft scouts are working towards is that very goal. This is just a snapshot of where things stand before opening day. But it sets expectations for the season and really allows Cardinals fans the chance to properly calibrate expectations, and if the team winds up beyond what we think with the optimism of whats to come can give you a window into what the Cardinals’ new brain trust is trying to sell you on. “Long-term vision” doesn’t lean into competing for the middle and sneaking in any longer. It’s about competing at the top, and if you’re a fan who has groaned for something new. Opening Day is the beginning of that.

-Thanks for reading

Phillies News:

• Could Wheeler be back in the majors sooner than we thought? Will pitch 3 innings with LHV on Saturday
• Still no timeline for Aidan Miller to return to baseball activities
• After suffering a cardiac event, Daniel Robert was released from the hospital

MLB News:

• Spencer Strider will begin the season on the IL with an oblique strain
• Opening Day power rankings from MLB and CBS
• MLB using big balls to promote the upcoming season
• More MLB.com predictions

As the Red Sox approach Opening Day, it’s time to look at the other American League playoff contenders. Next up, one of 2025’s most disappointing teams.

What’s this team’s deal?

The 2023 Baltimore Orioles wown 101 games and took first place in the AL East. The 2024 edition of the club won 91 games and finished in second place in the division. The 2025 team won, uh, 75 games and finished in last place in the AL East.

Last year was supposed to be about building on their success and cementing the O’s as the class of the division while their young stars were cheap and under team control. Their drafting and development was supposed to make this an Orioles decade. But instead it ended abruptly and turned into a record scratch moment for President of Baseball Operations or POBO Mike Elias.

After firing manager Brandon Hyde during the season, POBO Elias didn’t want to follow the same path and tried to retool in Birdland. 2025 saw the team play poorly on both sides of the ball: 4.18 runs scored per game was the seventh worst in MLB and their pitchers allowed 4.86 runs per game, the sixth most. While the O’s biggest need has been pitching, the offense wasn’t really covering itself in glory either.

The additions:

Pete Alonso. The Polar Bear has hit at least 34 home runs in each season except 2020. He hit 53 as a rookie, 38 last year, and has two 40+ homer seasons on his resume. He’s here to mash.

Chris Bassitt. In 2024 the Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes to be their ace. That worked well. Letting him leave via free agency was certainly a choice that worked out in 2025 as he was injured, but they still needed someone at the top of that rotation. One year of Chris Bassitt isn’t that guy, but his 3.89 ERA / 4.13 FIP over three years in Toronto is a nice floor to have in a rotation that has been characterized by instability.

Ryan Helsley. The former St. Louis Cardinals closer spent the back half of 2025 pitching poorly for the New York Mets. He’ll help in the bullpen if he can return to form.

Zach Eflin. Retained after a year and a half in Baltimore but was technically a free agent. Eflin is coming off a down season and looks to bounce back to his 2024 post-trade time with the O’s.

The largest subtraction this season was the trade of Grayson Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Angels for outfielder Taylor Ward. With Rodriguez suffering another arm injury and starting 2026 on the IL maybe trading him for a guy coming off a 36 homer season was the right call.

How good are they?

Right now FanGraphs projects the Orioles at 83.5 wins and 78.5 losses, recognizing that there are no 0.5s when the games are played. That’s fourth place in the AL East by their calculations behind the Yankees, Red Sox, and Jays.

Is that the most likely scenario though? It’s hard to say. So much forward progress simply came to a halt. Adley Rutschman fell off back-to-back All Star seasons to look relatively ordinary. Gunnar Henderson likewise took a step back, although he still had a good season with an OPS of almost .800 along with 17 homers and 30 steals. Jackson Holliday, who was hailed as the next big thing, underwhelmed for a second straight season. Any or all of these players could turn it around, which would make it more likely the O’s are good. And their pitching includes Trevor Rogers at the top of the rotation, coming off a 1.81/2.82 ERA/FIP season, having absolutely caught fire in Baltimore.

Those three teams above them are also expected to be good and the Rays haven’t been truly bad in a while. It might be hard for even a good Baltimore team to do much in 2026 and they’re still probably a pitcher short in the rotation.

Who’s their most likable player?

Is it already Pete Alonso? It might be. The guy loves to play baseball. From an opposing viewpoint that’s a big plus.

Who’s their least likable player?

Manny Machado. I kid. But, also it still is.

Gunnar Henderson probably claims the mantle for playing the hardest, or at least seeming to. In 40 games he’s hit .240/.362/.534 with 9 home runs against Boston. That’s talent but also a reason to dislike him.

Schedule against the Red Sox

As an AL East rival there will be a few matchups against the Orioles.

April 24-26 in Baltimore.

June 2-4 in Boston.

July 20-22 in Boston.

September 3-6 in Baltimore.

Season Prediction

Looking at the Orioles, you can see there’s a lot of potential. They’re almost oozing. But there has been some big regression since 2023 and a team that probably overachieved. FanGraphs has the top team in the East sitting on 86.6 wins and I think that’s where pre-season forecasting can have limits. I think in this case, though, it’s about right. This is a .500 team that could go nuts if they turn the clock back on the offense, but the pitching just isn’t there. That’s not to say this is a bad team. But it’s one that did surprisingly little considering that the two years after 2023 were steps in the wrong direction.

We’re a day away. In just over 24 hours, the Yankees will take the field in San Francisco for a special opening night matchup with the Giants. We know who the starting pitchers will be, as Max Fried will square off with Logan Webb.

And for the most part, we know what the Yankees’ roster as a whole will look like tomorrow. But there still is some intrigue, particularly with the team announcing over the weekend that they would begin the season with a four-man rotation, keeping Luis Gil to the side for now. Gil could still make the roster, allowing the Yankees to piggyback him with another starter, likely Ryan Weathers, or the team could opt to have him start the year with Triple-A. The right-hander would be eligible to return to the majors on April 9th in that scenario, two days before the Yankees project to need a fifth starter based on their early-season schedule.

With all that in mind, I’ve thrown together my projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers (2)
Austin Wells
J.C. Escarra

Infielders (6)
Ben Rice
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
José Caballero
Ryan McMahon
Paul Goldschmidt
Amed Rosario

Outfielders (4)
Cody Bellinger
Trent Grisham
Aaron Judge
Randal Grichuk

Designated Hitter (1)
Giancarlo Stanton

Starting Pitchers (4)
Max Fried
Cam Schlittler
Ryan Weathers
Will Warren

Bullpen (9)
David Bednar
Camilo Doval
Fernando Cruz
Tim Hill
Ryan Yarbrough
Paul Blackburn
Cade Winquest
Jake Bird
Brent Headrick

This is pure speculation, but my guess is the Yankees will use Gil’s remaining minor league option and let him keep his pitch count up with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. It’s the cleaner option, rather than trying to find a way to keep Gil stretched out at around 80-90 pitches while pitching out of the bullpen. Gil can make a couple starts in Triple-A, then return to the bigs by April 11th to start on the road against the Rays.

Should Gil go down, the focus then shifts to who takes his place. In this projection, I have the Yankees loading up on back-end bullpen arms, breaking camp with all of Paul Blackburn, Cade Winquest, Brent Headrick, and Jake Bird. Of those four, Headrick seemed like the longest shot to make the team coming into spring training, but Gil going down would open up space for the lefty after a strong showing in camp, Headrick striking out 15 batters against one walk in seven innings.

What do you think? What’s your Opening Day roster projection for tomorrow? Let us know in the comments below.

This morning on the site, check out Josh’s review of the Yankees’ strategy and success with the new ABS challenge system this spring. We’ll also get a fun entry in our Yankees Birthday series from Jonathan as he focuses on Ernie Shore, while Matt will preview the Yankees’ Opening Day foes, the San Francisco Giants, in the last entry in our overall 2026 MLB Preview. Later, Jeremy will discuss Finlete, in light of the reports that Yankees prospect Carlos Lagrange has promised a portion of his potential future MLB earnings to investors.

Today’s Matchup

New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs

Time: 3:05 p.m. EST

Video: N/A (audio available via WFAN 101.9 FM/660AM or MLB.tv)

Venue: Sloan Park, Mesa, AZ