Category: Sports News

Over the past four weeks, the Jays are 14-12 with a 3.97 ERA

Hot

Kevin Gausman: 5 starts, 2-1, 3.14ERA. In 28.2 innings, batters hit .243/.278/.411 with 3 home runs, 5 walks and 31 strikeouts.

Two quality starts, one good start that went five innings and a couple of less great starts. At 35 he’s still a very good starting pitcher.

Louis Varland: 11 games, 2-0, 6 saves, 0.64 ERA. In 14.0 innings, batters hit .163/180/.204 with no home runs, 1 walks and 14 strikeouts.

He also had 2 holds. Louis allowed one earned run over the last 4 weeks (and two this season). I’m pretty amazed at the just one walk, as he had walked quite a few before that. He’s been amazing. We are very lucky to have him.

Braydon Fisher: 13 games, 3 as opener, 0-0, 2.08 ERA. In 13 innings, batters hit ..156/.240/.289 with 2 home runs, 5 walks and 18 strikeouts.

He had 2 holds. Yeah, he’s been terrific. He gave up one run in each of two appearances, and that was it.

Tyler Rogers: 12 games, 0-0, 2 saves, 1 blown save, 4.50 ERA. In 6 innings, batters hit .346/.414/.423, with 3 walks and 6 strikeouts.

Tyler had 7 holds. He gave up three runs in those 12 games, 2 in one games, and 1 in the next. I really enjoy watching him.

Adam Macko: 12 games, 1 as opener, 2-0, 3 holds, 1.50 ERA. In 12 innings batters hit ..244/.292/.333 with 1 home run, 2 walks and 8 strikeouts.

He was good and now he’s in Buffalo. The life of a reliever with options.

Cold

Patrick Corbin: 5 starts, 1-2, 5.48 ERA. In 23.0 innings, batters hit .269/.343/.484 with 4 home runs, 10 walks and 18 strikeouts.

There were also 8 stolen bases, with no one caught in the last four weeks. He’s averaged 4.6 innings per start. Maybe Spencer Miles should stay in the rotation and Corbin should go to the pen. He had one QS, one game that would have been a QS if he had pitched one more inning and three that were poor starts.

Jeff Hoffman: 12 games, 2-2, 5.91 ERA. In 10.2 innings, batters hit .268/.348/.439 with 1 home run, 4 walks and 18 strikeouts.

He had 2 holds. He had one blowup appearance (more than one run against, and it was epic) and two games where he allowed one run and 8 with no runs allowed.

Yariel Rodríguez: 9 games, 0-1, blown save. 8.64 ERA. In 8.1 innings, batters hit .343/.452/.543. with 2 home runs, 6 walks and 4 strikeouts.

Also had a hold. He’s been DFAed again. No one will pick him up off waivers. I don’t know if it is time to release him and let him earn his money at home, or store him in Buffalo.

Connor Seabold: 5 games, 0-0, 8.10 ERA. In 3.1 innings, batters hit .375 /.444/ .375, with 2 walks and 1 strikeout

Had a hold. He’s been DFAed.

Inbetween

Dylan Cease: 3 starts, 0-2, 4.60 ERA. In 15.2 innings, .193/.270/.449, with 4 home runs, 6 walks and 28 strikeouts.

Three starts, he had one Quality start, one bad start and one in between. The ERA is high, but the other numbers are good….almost two strikeouts an inning. And of course, there was a IL stint in between.

Trey Yesavage: 5 starts, 1-2, 4.30 ERA. In 29.1 innings, batters hit .180/.278/.330 with 2 homers, 14 walks and 29 strikeouts.

Trey had two QS. one game that was an inning short of a QS and two very poor starts. There were no steals against him in those five games. In fact there has only been 1 steal attempt with Trey on the mound, and it was successful.

Mason Fluharty: 14 games, 1-0, 2 as opener, 2.31 ERA. In 11.2 innings, batters hit .261/.320/.413 with 2 home runs, 3 walks and 17 strikeouts.

He had 3 holds. He’s very good vs LHH .514 OPS, but not good against RHH (883).

Spencer Miles: 6 games, 1 start, 4 opener, 2-1, 3.80 ERA. In 21.1 innings, batters hit .184/.262/.276 with 2 homers, 8 walks and 23 strikeouts.

Spencer also had a hold. He had one blow up outing, (6 earned in 3 innings), one where he gave up 2 earned in 1.1 innings, and another where he allowed one run in 4.1.

Also Pitched

Max Scherzer: He pitched yesterday, and you likely remember it.

Tommy Nance: 3 games, 0-0, 0.00 ERA. In 3 innings batters hit ..273/.273/.273, with 0 home runs, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts.

Austin Voth: Pitched in that one game, gave up 5 earned in 3.1 innings. Now he’s in the minors with the Twins.

Simeon Woods Richardson: Threw 4 innings in that one game, allowed just 1 hit with 3 strikeouts.

Chad Dallas: Pitched in 1 game, gave up a run in 3.2 innings, 2 hits, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts.

Chase Lee: Pitched in 2 games. In 2 innings, he gave up 2 earned, on 1 hit, a home run, 4 walks and no strikeouts.

Tanner Andrews: Pitched in 2 games. Batters hit .111/.273/.111. And didn’t give up a run.

Hayden Juenger: Pitched in 2 games. Gave up 3 earned in 2 innings. Batters hit .286/.400/.429, 2 walks, no strikeouts.

IL

Joe Mantiply: Pitched in two games. 0.00 ERA. in 1.2 innings, batters hit .333/.429/.333. Might be back before the season’s over.

Yimi García: Could be back in the next week or so.

Cody Ponce: Will miss the season.

Shane Bieber: Could be back next week?

José Berríos: Had Tommy John. Might be back by the end of next season.

Ricky Tiedemann: They haven’t talked about him in awhile, which is never a good thing.

Bowden Francis: Won’t pitch this year.

Lazaro Estrada: Won’t be back for a while.

The Milwaukee Brewers are back in town this weekend, as they’ll host the Philadelphia Phillies for a three-game set beginning Friday night. The Brewers, at 41-25 on the season, sit in first place in the NL Central, 3.5 games ahead of the Cardinals entering Thursday’s play. They’re coming off a 4-2 road trip in which they swept the Rockies and dropped two of three against the A’s in Las Vegas.

On the other side, the Phillies sit at 37-31 and in second place in the NL East, eight games behind the NL-leading Atlanta Braves. After getting out to a dismal 9-19 start that resulted in the firing of manager Rob Thomson, the Phils have rattled off a strong month-and-a-half, with a 28-12 record since April 27 under interim manager Don Mattingly.

The Brewers are currently without starters Quinn Priester, Logan Henderson, and Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff is expected to rejoin the team in Milwaukee this weekend, and he’ll potentially make his return next week against the Guardians. Priester continues to struggle with his command during his rehab assignment, while Henderson is targeting a July return. Relievers Jared Koenig, Angel Zerpa, Rob Zastryzny, Brian Fitzpatrick, DL Hall, and Carlos Rodriguez are also out, with Zerpa out for the season, Fitzpatrick evaluating whether to get Tommy John surgery, Hall out until late July, Rodriguez with a TBD return, and Zastryzny and Koenig on their way back. Outfielder Brandon Lockridge is also nearing a rehab assignment as he recovers from a knee injury.

UPDATE: While I was writing this, Priester was returned from his rehab assignment again and remains on the IL.

The Phillies are without outfielder Johan Rojas, who is out for the season after a suspension followed by a torn right UCL. Left-hander Kyle Backhus just began a rehab assignment, and outfielder Adolis García is considered day-to-day with a pulled muscle in his throwing arm. Lastly, top prospect Aidan Miller (MLB No. 14), who is with Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate, is out until August with a back injury.

Offensively, the Brewers are led by Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Christian Yelich. Catcher Gary Sánchez’s power made a return during the team’s recent road trip, while Andrew Vaughn continues to mash against lefties. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, David Hamilton, Joey Ortiz, Blake Perkins, and Luis Rengifo round things out. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .254/.340/.389 (.729 OPS ranks eighth) with 57 homers (27th), 352 runs (third), and 68 steals (third).

The Phillies’ big 1-2 remains Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber leads the majors with 24 homers this season, as he’s hitting .239/.358/.575 with 100 strikeouts to 42 walks over 65 games. Harper, who has 15 homers, is hitting .267/.376/.517. Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh have eight homers each, and Marsh leads the team with a .326 batting average. The aforementioned García is hitting just .195 but he does have seven homers, and Trea Turner and Bryson Stott both remain speed threats with 26 steals between them (14 for Turner, 12 for Stott). J.T. Realmuto is in the midst of another down year, and he’s sharing time behind the plate with Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs. Edmundo Sosa, former Brewer Steward Berroa, and prospect Justin Crawford (the son of Carl Crawford) round out the squad. As a team, the Phillies are hitting .228/.298/.389 (.687 OPS ranks 27th), with 86 homers (ninth), 276 runs (24th), and 54 steals (tied for 10th).

After all of the injuries, Milwaukee’s bullpen leaders as it stands are Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Grant Anderson, and Aaron Ashby. Chad Patrick has also been effective in his bullpen role (though he did allow three runs in Wednesday’s loss). Rookie Coleman Crow appears to be moved to the bullpen, too, and newbies Joel Kuhnel and Drew Rom round things out. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.47 team ERA (fourth), including a 3.50 starter ERA (fifth) and a 3.43 bullpen ERA (eighth). They’ve struck out 639 batters (tied for second) over 591 1/3 innings.

Jhoan Duran leads the Phillies’ bullpen, as he has a 1.99 ERA and 17 saves in 18 chances this season. José Alvarado and Brad Keller are tied for the team lead with 30 appearances apiece, though Alvarado’s 5.25 ERA over 24 innings isn’t ideal (Keller’s 3.38 ERA over 29 1/3 innings is much better). Orion Kerkering has also been solid, with a 2.10 ERA over 25 2/3 innings. Tanner Banks (6.08 ERA over 23 2/3 IP), Tim Mayza (3.41 ERA over 29 IP), Chase Shugart (3.48 ERA over 20 2/3 IP), and Jonathan Bowlan (3.92 ERA over 20 2/3 IP) fill the rest of the ‘pen. As a staff, the Phillies have a 4.01 team ERA (12th), including a 4.14 starter ERA (13th) and a 3.79 bullpen ERA (12th). They’ve struck out 641 batters (first) over 606 1/3 innings.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, June 12 @ 6:40 p.m.: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (7-2, 1.50 ERA, 1.91 FIP) vs. RHP Andrew Painter (1-7, 6.21 ERA, 5.09 FIP)

Misiorowski continues to mow down hitters at a crazy rate, as he leads the majors with 116 strikeouts over just 78 innings. He also sports a league-best 0.808 WHIP, allowing just 4.7 H/9. He’s allowed a whopping one earned run since the end of April, spanning 45 1/3 innings over seven starts. In that time, he has a perfect 6-0 record and 65 strikeouts, including at least eight strikeouts in all of those appearances. He’s coming off a seven-inning outing against the Rockies, in which he allowed an unearned run on four hits, three walks, and a hit batter, striking out eight. Miz’s only career appearance against the Phillies came last September, when he allowed three runs on six hits and a walk, striking out four over 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision.

Painter is a highly regarded prospect who has unfortunately dealt with injuries early in his career. Even so, he’s just 23, though he hasn’t had much success here in his rookie season. Across 12 appearances (11 starts), Painter has totaled 58 innings, with a 6.21 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and 47 strikeouts. He’s lost each of his last three outings, allowing 12 runs over 14 1/3 innings against the Guardians, Dodgers, and White Sox. This marks Painter’s first career appearance against Milwaukee.

Saturday, June 13 @ 6:10 p.m.: LHP Shane Drohan (3-1, 3.11 ERA, 2.71 FIP) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA, 4.21 FIP)

Drohan, who made his MLB debut as a starter but then followed with 10 bullpen outings, is set for his third turn through the rotation since rejoining this month. He has a 3.11 ERA, 2.71 FIP, and 37 strikeouts across 37 2/3 innings this season, and the Brewers dominated in both of his recent starts. In those games, he allowed five runs on nine hits and three walks, striking out nine over 10 1/3 innings as the Crew won 16-2 against the Giants and 12-4 against the Rockies. This marks Drohan’s first career appearance against Philadelphia.

Nola, 33, is in his 12th MLB season, all of which have been with the Phillies. While “even year” Aaron Nola was very much a thing entering this year — he had a 2.37, 3.28, 3.25, and 3.57 ERA in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024, respectively, compared to a 3.87, 4.63, 4.46, and 6.01 ERA in 2019, 2021, 2023, and 2025, respectively — he hasn’t had a very “even year” kind of year in 2026. Across 13 starts, he has a 5.86 ERA, 4.21 FIP, and 68 strikeouts over 66 innings. He got roughed up in his last appearance, allowing five runs on six hits and four walks while striking out four over 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox. Nola has made 15 career starts against Milwaukee, with a 7-3 record, a 3.09 ERA, and 101 strikeouts over 90 1/3 innings, though he got roughed up last September, allowing six runs in five innings in a loss.

Sunday, June 14 @ 1:10 p.m.: LHP Kyle Harrison (7-1, 2.72 ERA, 3.11 FIP) vs. LHP Cristopher Sánchez (8-2, 1.54 ERA, 1.85 FIP)

Harrison, who has a 2.72 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and 77 strikeouts across 59 2/3 innings this season, is coming off his worst start as a Brewer, though that can be blamed at least in part on the environment of Las Vegas Ballpark. He went just 2 1/3 innings, allowing eight runs on eight hits and a pair of walks with four strikeouts on 71 pitches, but the Brewers were able to pull out a 15-14 comeback win in 12 innings. Harrison has made a pair of starts against the Phillies while with the Giants, one in 2023 and one in 2024. In those games, he’s totaled six runs allowed on 17 hits and two walks, striking out 10 over 8 1/3 frames.

Sánchez, 29, has developed into one of the best pitchers in MLB. After finishing second in NL Cy Young voting and leading all pitchers with an 8.1 bWAR in 2025, he’s doing it again in 2026. Across 14 starts, he leads the league with 93 1/3 innings and a 5.0 bWAR, sporting a 1.54 ERA, 1.85 FIP, and 113 strikeouts. After allowing no runs in the month of May, he eked out an NL Pitcher of the Month Award over Misiorowski. Sánchez is coming off his worst start in a while, though, as he allowed all of two runs over seven innings, still picking up 10 strikeouts in a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays. Sánchez has made three career appearances (two starts) against the Brewers, with a 2.03 ERA and eight strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings.

How to Watch & Listen

Friday, June 12: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Saturday, June 13: Brewers TV & nationally on FS1; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Sunday, June 14: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Prediction

The Phillies and Brewers both got out to sluggish starts and both have turned it on over the last month-plus to push themselves well over .500. This should be a fun series with some great pitching matchups. Give me the Crew to eke out two of three.

Only a few months away from turning 37, Freddie Freeman seems intent on materializing one of the smoothest “declines” in baseball, if we can even call it that. The Dodgers’ star first baseman isn’t the same hitter he was when he joined this team back in 2022, but you wouldn’t really know it from looking at his numbers. Preparing for a matchup against Mitch Keller, a pitcher against whom Freeman is batting .500 in 18 at-bats, he is in the middle of his finest stretch this season, having recorded a hit in 13 out of his last 15 appearances, once again maintaining an OPS in the mid .800s.

When he takes the field today, it’ll be Freeman’s 66th appearance in 69 games. That level of availability indicates a durability ever more important in the context of this current season, with Shohei Ohtani receiving more days off, Betts facing his issues, both health and production-wise, and even Kyle Tucker not quite hitting the ground running as many expected he would.

Freeman and many Dodger left-handed hitters have enjoyed a terrific first two games in this series against the Pirates, particularly when you adjust the expectations for having faced Paul Skenes. A brief rundown of the Pirates’ numbers against lefty hitters shows why that success shouldn’t come as a surprise. Pittsburgh’s staff has allowed a 5.14 ERA against left-handed hitters, the fourth highest in the big leagues. Mitch Keller, today’s starter, is one of many Pirates pitchers whose stats plummet when facing lefties. Eighteen of the 22 extra-base hits given up by Keller in 2026 have come against left-handed hitters.

Thursday’s game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Pirates
• Ballpark: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
• Start time: 3:40 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Austin Wells’ injury has put the Yankees in quite a difficult spot. It’s safe to say that right now, their catching situation is among the worst in the league because even when Wells was healthy, he was sporting a woeful 54 wRC+. And that’s the starter behind the plate.

The cold, hard numbers show just how bad the Yankees’ catchers have been this year, especially since the start of May. Per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, since May 1, the team’s backstops had a combined 8 wRC+, a slash line of .130/.205/.165, and a strikeout rate of 30.7 percent before Wednesday’s matinee in Cleveland, and they hadn’t even reached base in June. That’s just rough.

Since the Yanks are reluctant to try Ben Rice behind the plate, which is fair and understandable for many reasons ranging from catching defense to not overloading Rice with the burden of learning a pitching staff, they really need to bring in someone, even if it’s not a star.

The in-house solutions are J.C. Escarra, who entered Wednesday’s game with a 25 wRC+, newly promoted backup option Alí Sánchez, a non-roster invitee in spring who had a 22 wRC+ for his career in the majors and an 88 mark in Triple-A before taking the field, 26-year-old career minor leaguer Abrahan Gutiérrez, and Miguel Palma. Payton Henry could have earned a call-up, but he’s currently on Scranton’s injured list.

The Yankees have trusted Wells for years, almost blindly, to the point of trading multiple catching prospects over the years because he was the unquestioned starter. He was, after all, a 2024 AL Rookie of the Year finalist. He’s at a bit of a crossroads, though, with just 0.2 fWAR and a horrible .533 OPS this year before going down with cervical headaches.

It appears his stint on the injured list will be short, but even if that’s the case, it’s becoming increasingly clear that he needs some sort of competition for playing time and at-bats. Given the bleak outlook of the position in the organization, a trade shouldn’t be ruled out. It would actually be the best idea, all things considered.

Of course, getting an impact catcher via trade in the middle of the season is not exactly realistic. Teams just don’t give those away so easily. However, the Yankees should be on the market for a backup-type backstop who can start for stints and not embarrass himself. Think about how even an 80-wRC+ catcher would improve the bottom of the lineup.

You probably won’t see any deals for Adley Rutschman, Hunter Goodman, or Dillon Dingler, for example, but perhaps a veteran who’s still a decent hitter, or a failed prospect behind the plate with a decent floor, could become viable options for New York. They need catching help badly, and if Wells doesn’t return to form eventually, the position could become the team’s Achilles heel heading into the stretch run and October.

Right now, the Yankees have several areas in which they could potentially improve. They could definitely use a late-inning reliever or two, for example. No need is as big as the one they have behind the dish, though, and they need to do something about it.

By now, it’s well-established that the organization loves a good framer who can handle the pitching staff well. There’s a lot of catching talent around the league, so it’s just a matter of finding the right fit with a team that is actually willing to part with one.

It won’t be as easy as it sounds, even if the hypothetical player in question is not a star, because many clubs are contending or in a weird gray area in which they are close enough to contention that they won’t want to part with assets. But the Yankees need to make an effort, even if it means overpaying a bit. Bringing in a catcher who can compete with Wells and play some decent baseball when he’s not around is a must.

The rookies pulled through for the Colorado Rockies as they secured a series victory with a 3-2 victory on Tuesday. Pitching was great for both teams, and things didn’t really happen until the final two innings. TJ Rumfield had a go-ahead home run and Sterlin Thompson later delivered the walk-off single. Now, the Rockies look to sweep the Cubs to close out the homestand.

Ryan Feltner (2-1, 4.22 ERA) takes the hill for the Rockies, looking to continue his string of quality starts. Since returning from the injured list, Felter has allowed just one run on five hits over 12 innings with six strikeouts and two walks. He has done a good job of throwing strikes and getting soft contact. Even more important has been the ability to keep composure on the mound to not let things spiral out of control. In his last start against the Milwaukee Brewers, he ended up throwing 37 pitches in the second inning, but worked out of the jam and went back to being efficient for six innings. He has made one career start against the Cubs back in 2022, where he allowed three runs on six hits over 5.1 innings.

Edward Cabrera (3-3, 4.99 ERA) makes the start for the Cubs, his second since returning from the injured list last week. After a solid run in Miami, the Cubs acquired Cabrera in a trade over the offseason to solidify the rotation. He has been decent for the Cubs, but it’s been a little inconsistent as he has had a hard time preventing runs. After two scoreless outings to begin the year, he has allowed at least three runs in every start since, including a season-high eight runs in his previous start against the San Francisco Giants. He can get wild at times, resulting in several walks, but he also has utilized his deep arsenal to get strikeouts. Cabrera has made four career starts against the Rockies, posting a 4.22 ERA over 21.1 innings. Three of those starts have come at Coors Field with a 3.12 ERA.

First Pitch: 1:10 pm MDT

TV: Rockies TV

Radio: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM; KNRV 1150 (Spanish)

SB Nation site: Bleed Cubbie Blue

Lineups:

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The Texas Rangers have placed lefthanded reliever Jalen Beeks on the 15 day injured list with back spasms, the team announced today. To take his place on the active roster, the Rangers have recalled righthanded reliever Luis Curvelo from AAA Round Rock.

Beeks was one of the legion of relief arms the Rangers signed to one year deals this past offseason. He has a 3.81 ERA in 26 innings over 29 games so far this season, although with a 5.41 FIP, owing to the fact he’s allowed six homers already this season. He last pitched on Tuesday, in the opener in the series against the Royals, when he faced five batters, retired two of them, and gave up three hits, including a homer.

Curvelo started the season in AAA, but has now been recalled three times, with a stint on the major league injured list mixed in. He has allowed five runs in 7.1 IP over 7 games.

The Royals still have a chance to win the series this afternoon.

Michael Wacha get the start. He gave up six runs in five innings against the Rangers in Texas, his worst start of the year. Jac Caglianone gets moved up to the cleanup spot and Kameron Misner gets his first start in a Royals uniform.

Right-hander Kumar Rocker goes for the Rangers. A pair of former Royals are in the lineup – Nicky Lopez and Elias Diaz.

With storms in today’s forecast, the start of the game has been delayed. Stay tuned for updates!

I don’t know if it’s just me, but I’ve been kind of checked out during this series. The Braves’ 2026 season has been very exciting so far, but there’s just been a confluence of events that have sort of made me pay less attention than to any other set so far this season:

• The start time is kind of weird and runs right across me putting the kids to bed. The pitch clock and other aspects of games this season have made it so games were either starting late (West Coast trip games) or largely decided by kid-bedtime, these scheduled 7:40 pm ET starts mean the meat of the action happens then.
• The pitching management in the first game was just as clear of a, “Yeah, we don’t really care about this game” signal as possible.
• Yesterday’s game was just a low-energy, nothing carries meh-fest.

Anyway, put all that together, and the Braves are on the brink of getting swept on Chicago’s South Side… unless they can salvage a game. It’s a weird position for this team — this is only their third series loss, the first time they’ve lost the first two games of a series, and only their fourth time they’ve lost consecutive games (including a three-game losing streak in early April, which is their longest of the year so far).

But, standing in the way of the potentially-added excitement of avoiding a sweep by the White Sox, of all teams… is the fact that Martin Perez is starting.

As I’ve noted before, Martin Perez just kind of does something to my perception and ability to enjoy a game. I can’t really put my finger on what it is, exactly, it’s more je ne sais quoi (or, in this case, the opposite of that — is there a similar concept but with a negative connotation?) To be clear, it’s not even that I think Perez is especially bad, or bound to implode; his line on the season is 73/98/96 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) which is slightly better than average, and as a starter over his last four turns in the rotation, he’s at 105/94/99. A league-average starter performance for very cheap isn’t anything to sneeze at, but I’m not proverbially sneezing because of the outcome. It’s just…

Perez mainly throws three pitches, sprinkling in another two here and there. The movement profile on every pitch is poor. For example, he throws a slower changeup than most guys (because he throws slower than most guys), yet it somehow has less drop than even an average changeup. You’d think that maybe with a lack of stuff, there’s a command improvement, but Perez isn’t really hitting targets well, either. You can go to Baseball Savant and see his pitch plots — there’s nothing pinpoint there except for the curve, which he throws less than ten percent of the time. The cutter is a get-me-over mess and his sinker is largely thrown middle-middle. He doesn’t get much chase, he doesn’t get many whiffs, but he also doesn’t really avoid walks. As I’ve described before, his starts feel like plinko or pachinko — what happens is ultimately just up to whether the balls guys hit off him happen to be squared up and/or towards a defender. Sometimes they are, and the team is fine, even if he has poor peripherals on the day. Sometimes, they aren’t, and woof.

Perez actually spent a while throwing the ball for the White Sox last year, so he’ll be facing some old teammates. He didn’t have a very remarkable 2025, as he made just 11 appearances (10 starts), with a very fortunate 86/99/118 line. He went down in mid-April with a flexor strain, missed most of the season, and then returned for about a month in mid-August before he was shut down with a shoulder strain in mid-September.

The White Sox haven’t announced a starter. They might be doing another opener-esque thing. If so, Anthony Kay may be the starter. If he is, it’ll be kind of a mixed bag for the Braves. Kay hasn’t pitched all that well after a two-year stint in Japan (105/128/120), but the Braves also haven’t hit well at all when another team has used an opener against them. Kay was crushed by the Phillies in his last start, snapping a streak of three straight where he had allowed exactly one run… even without particularly good peripherals in the process. The White Sox used an opener for Kay a couple of times in April and then seemingly abandoned the idea, but maybe they’re trying it again after seeing how the Braves didn’t really do anything against Erick Fedde in the opener of this game. In any case, given the Perez pachinko, it’ll be up to the Braves to snap out of their offensive doldrums to avoid the sweep.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Thursday, June 11, 7:40 p.m. EDT

Location: Rate Field, Chicago, IL

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

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The Los Angeles Dodgers boast the league’s best run differential as they continue their pursuit of a third straight World Series title, and tonight's favorable matchup against embattled right-hander Mitch Keller offers another opportunity for the NL heavyweights to flex their elite offense.

With Polymarket offering a loaded slate from afternoon to night, here are our best MLB picks for Thursday, June 11.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: ARI/MIA Under 8.5	+100
Jon Metler: ATL ML	-120
Neil Parker: LAD -1.5	+104
Joe Osborne: BAL ML	+100

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Diamondbacks/Marlins Under 8.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

This is one of the few games on the board where both teams are traveling, which is why it's an afternoon start and could lead to weaker lineups than usual. The Miami Marlins head north to Pittsburgh tomorrow, while the Arizona Diamondbacks open a series against Cincinnati on Friday.

Arizona put up a donut last night, and while the Fish scored eight runs, six of those came in a single fourth inning. I trust both bullpens, and the Diamondbacks should need to use some relief arms today, which could result in high-leverage relievers working in non-high-leverage spots.

Let's hope for some quick at-bats and getaway-day baseball.

• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Dbacks.TV, Marlins.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline

Price: 54¢ (-120) at Polymarket

Ronald Acuna Jr. landing on the IL is certainly a blow to the Atlanta Braves' lineup, but I think the market may be overreacting to the news. Against left-hander Anthony Kay, Atlanta still has plenty of ways to generate offense, which creates some value at the current price.

One reason is the added depth provided by right-handed hitters Jorge Mateo and Ha-Seong Kim near the bottom of the order. Their presence lengthens the lineup and helps keep pressure on opposing pitchers when the batting order turns over. Mateo is hitting .300 on the season and .324 against left-handed pitching, while Kim has consistently produced better numbers against southpaws throughout his career.

Even without Acuna, this lineup is built to match up well against a left-handed starter, and that reality isn't being fully reflected in the market. I make the Braves closer to a 57-cent favorite against the Chicago White Sox.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: BravesVision, CHSN

Neil Parker's expert pick: Dodgers -1.5

Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket

The Los Angeles Dodgers boast the highest wOBA against righties this season and the highest overall xwOBA over the past 30 days, so I’m anticipating Pittsburgh Pirates' right-hander Mitch Keller to have his hands full.

Keller doesn’t have a single positive pitch value across his past five starts, which paints the perfect picture for why he’s allowed 24 runs across 26 innings during the skid.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's bullpen has already been tasked with eight innings of work this series, and the Pirates rank 26th in reliever ERA across the past two weeks.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SportsNet LA, SportsNet Pittsburgh

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Orioles moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

I'll happily back the home underdog in a matchup where the splits strongly favor the Baltimore Orioles.

Kyle Bradish is on a tear at Camden Yards, allowing just one earned run across his last three home starts. On the other side, Seattle Mariners' starter Bryan Woo has struggled away from the Emerald City, carrying a 5.08 road ERA and surrendering 18 earned runs over his last four road outings. 

Baltimore also enters in better offensive form, ranking 10th in OPS over the past week while remaining one of baseball's most productive home offenses.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: ESPN

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The Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox wrap up a three-game set at Rate Field on Thursday, June 11, and the South Siders can pull off the series sweep with a win.

But my top Braves vs. White Sox predictions and MLB picks are calling for Atlanta to leave the Windy City with the victory after teeing off on Chicago lefty Anthony Kay tonight. 

Who will win Braves vs White Sox today: Braves moneyline (-112)

I’m fully fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. 

He’s sporting a 5.46 xERA with a pedestrian 8.6 swinging-strike percentage across his past nine starts, and the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 30 days.

On the flip side, Atlanta starter Martin Perez checks in with a sustainable 4.02 xERA with just 15 runs allowed across his past eight starts, so I’m anticipating him limiting the damage enough for the Braves to pull away in the series finale. 

I’d play the Braves moneyline down to -120, too.

COVERS INTEL: Chicago White Sox starter Anthony Kay has the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, so I expect his struggles to continue and pave the way for the Atlanta moneyline and the Over 8.5 tonight.

Braves vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-105)

While I do expect Perez to hold the Chicago lineup in check to a degree, the White Sox also send a potent lineup to the dish.

The Pale Hose similarly rank third in wOBA against lefties and 10th in the overall metric across the past 30 days. 

Of course, Chicago has also played to the Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+9.05 Units / 28% ROI), while Atlanta has gone Over the number in 28 of its last 45 road games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI).

Braves vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Atlanta -120 | Chicago +100
• Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+140) | Chicago +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Braves vs White Sox trend

The Atlanta Braves hit the Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI), and the Chicago White Sox have played to the Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+9.05 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. White Sox.

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