So long, upsets, and goodnight Cinderella.
Goodnight, Hubert Davis? Maybe in a day or two.
Goodnight, Mark Pope? Wait 'til 2027 on that one.
Although blue-bloods North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA are mired in misery, most of the big dogs march on in March. Cinderella's glass slipper shattered after the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Well, except for Iowa. The Hawkeyes retained a slipper.
March Madness scores: Buzzer-beater, monster upset and more nail-biters
What to make of the mostly chalky first two rounds?
Well, the easy and perhaps most relevant explanation is NIL and transfer free agency mostly benefited Power conference brands, at the expense of mid-majors. Plus, this is a particularly good freshman class, and Power programs tend to gobble up the five-star prospects. With so many five-stars (see Cameron Boozer and Darius Acuff) playing up to their billing, that’s a boon for the high majors, because blue-chippers don't sign with mid-majors.
Also, this year’s bubble was particularly weak. The wheat separated from the chaff. A soft bubble is good for frontrunners.
Quiet tournament for upsets, but all eyes on Final Four
Does a relative lack of major upsets amount to a boring tournament? That depends on your perspective. If your interest in March Madness mostly hinges on upsets and bracket-busting stunners, then this tournament isn’t for you.
On the other hand, the favorites also ruled last year’s tournament, but that created an epic Final Four featuring three great games, on the heels of some Sweet 16 and Elite Eight thrillers.
In other words: Stay tuned. The tournament should get better as it goes.
If you’re hungry for upsets, though, here are three possibilities for the Sweet 16:
Four Sweet 16 games with upset potential
No. 4 Arkansas over No. 1 Arizona
Arizona is the most complete team in the bracket, with five starters who each average in double digits, plus two bench players who started on last year’s team that reached the Sweet 16.
So, why the upset potential? Well, because Arkansas is playing as well as anyone the past few weeks. John Calipari’s team hasn’t lost this month, and Acuff is becoming one of the top individual stories of the tournament. Asked about Acuff’s 36-point barrage in the second-round win over High Point, Calipari said, “What you saw is what he be’s.”
I’m not sure if that’s grammatically correct, but his point resonates, nonetheless.
No. 6 Tennessee over No. 2 Iowa State
Rick Barnes’ two best NCAA Tournament finishes at Tennessee came the past two seasons. Now, he's trying for a third consecutive Elite Eight. If Tennessee plays defense like it did in wins against Miami (Ohio) and Virginia, it’ll position itself to pull off the mild upset.
Never mind the seeds, because KenPom metrics would tell you Tennessee is closer to a 3-seed or a 4-seed. Iowa State has been under-manned without star scorer Joshua Jefferson. He's dealing with an ankle injury. Of course, if Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic play like they did against Kentucky, Iowa State might be just fine.
No. 5 St. John's over No. 1 Duke
Kentucky might be interested in what Rick Pitino has achieved these past two seasons at St. John's. His Red Storm have won 21 of their past 22 games.
Duke hasn't looked particularly stout in this tournament, and the ACC appears to be a fraud.
Pitino has St. John's into the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999, after winning 31 games last season. The more Pitino wins, the more Big Blue Nation will wish he'd never left "Camelot."
Final Four picks: Be skeptical of Duke
This much we know: We won't see a repeat of all four 1-seeds in the Final Four, not after Florida went down to Iowa. Duke might be next.
If basing an evaluation on the tournament’s first two rounds, you might think Michigan or Arizona or Houston was the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. Duke didn’t perform like the No. 1 overall seed in either of its wins against Siena or TCU, and the sharpest teeth of the East Region still awaits.
An early scare or two is not a doomsday scenario. Last year, Florida got pushed to the brink by UConn in the second round before rallying. The Gators also trailed Texas Tech by nine points with less than three minutes remaining in the Elite Eight, but Walter Clayton Jr. refused to let Florida fall.
Point being, Duke's scare against Siena could become nothing more than a minor footnote for the Blue Devils, and yet I’d trust Duke more if they had a clutch veteran guard like Florida had in Clayton in 2025. I'd also trust Duke more if it didn't have to face a scorching-hot St. John's team, led by a veteran coach who's a shark in March.
On Selection Sunday, I picked a Final Four of Michigan State, Arizona, Michigan and Houston. All four teams looked good through two rounds. No reason to change those picks.
Put it in Sharpie: Michigan State. Arizona. Michigan. Houston.
National championship: Arizona beats Houston
I highlighted Arkansas-Arizona as a potential Sweet 16 upset, but I'm picking the Wildcats to survive and overcome their history of March Madness fizzles, which plagued this program for the past quarter-century.
History aside, there’s nothing to dislike about Arizona. I subscribe to the cliche old guards win in March, and Jaden Bradley is an excellent engine for Arizona at point guard. The Wildcats balance Bradley's experience with an excellent counterpart in freshman guard Brayden Burries. Add in a frontcourt that’s unmatched, and you see why Arizona is 34-2, despite playing a tough schedule.
As for Houston, I'm impressed by the guts of point guard Kingston Flemings, the big-game experience of Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Joseph Tugler, and the savvy of coach Kelvin Sampson. Nobody in the South Region plays better defense than Houston. The Cougars should benefit from playing the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight in Houston, too.
Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA bracket predictions: Sweet 16 upsets, updated Final Four picks
