2025 stats: 32 GS, 182.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 109 ERA+, 1.212 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.2 fWAR
Robbie Ray was an All-Star in 2025. At least, up until the All-Star break.
His 2.65 ERA led the club into the July recess. At that point in the season, he ranked in the top-10 among qualified pitchers across the MLB in innings pitched, batting average of balls-in-play, runners stranded (LOB%), and opponents’ average. In tandem with Logan Webb, the pair were co-aces leading one of the better rotations in the Majors. They were an odd-but-effective couple: Ray’s blunt instrument attacks at the letters one day; Webb’s heavier rocks-at-the-knees the next.
The invitation to the Midsummer Classic was well-deserved. His last two seasons for Seattle and San Francisco were cut short by Tommy John surgery then long delayed by recovery. But at the start of the 2025 season, Ray was finally healthy and pitched with purpose from the jump. The relief he felt being back on the mound with regularity was clear, his loud grunts of gratitude echoed throughout the stadiums as he won his first three outings of the year. From the end of April to the beginning of June, the southpaw strung together eight consecutive quality starts. His strong performance had Fangraphs’ blogger Ben Clemens singing his praises, marveling at Ray’s ability to do so much with so little. Just a mid-to-low 90s four-seamer, three subpar secondary pitches, and a whole lot of backspin was ostensibly all he needed to not only be effective, but reclaim his Cy Young form from 2021. Out of nowhere, he flirted with a “Maddux” in Arizona, throwing his second career complete game. He then tangoed with future World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto right before the break, logging his 13th quality start in 20 games.
But this is a 2025 San Francisco Giants player review after all, so we know the good times just don’t last — and Ray might’ve been the first body to fall off the back of the wagon.
His first start after the All Star break came in Toronto in which he surrendered 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings pitched. It was his worst outing of the year up to that point — but it’d have more competition as he and the Giants slogged through the dog days of summer. Having allowed just 4 earned runs in a start just once over his first 20 games, Ray gave up at least 4 or more runs in 6 over his final 12, including a horrific, knuckle-dragging stumble in which opposing teams plated 22 runs in 22.2 innings against him over his last 5 games. His ERA over the “shorter half” nearly doubled. His K/9 rate fell and his BB/9 rate increased. Balls in play started finding holes and open grass. Hitters became more persistent. Innings drew on longer and became harder to close out. Ray’s left-on-base percentage dropped nearly 20 points. Opponent’s OPS rose from .608 to .810.
As disappointing and as sharp as the decline was, it shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise. Fatigue is always a factor for any pitcher in the latter half of the season. Not to mention the fact that Ray, who turned 34 in October, has been wringing his arm out like laundry for over a decade’s worth of seasons now. The fabric is worn, the color faded, and then there’s the long wrinkle of his Tommy John surgery that stretches back to 2023. His last full season with a proper pitching load was with Seattle way back when in 2022 (189 IP/ 32 GS). The 119 innings Ray logged over his first 20 starts was nearly four times his innings total from 2024.
While the final 3.65 ERA in 2025 is surely a disappointment considering what Ray initially seemed to promise, it’s still lower than his career mark, and the drop off shouldn’t be too surprising. Looking back over his career, Ray has never been a steady hand. His three-outcomes style opens him up to wild swings in results, making sustained dominance over a whole season difficult. The real accomplishment of 2025 for Ray is that he stayed healthy. For better or for worse, he notched 32 starts for the fifth time in his career. His 182.1 innings were just 11 shy of his career high. He would’ve been considered the workhorse in the Dodger rotation, throwing more than Yoshinobu, more than double Tyler Glasnow’s regular season innings, nearly three-times Blake Snell’s, and nearly four-times Ohtani’s.
Small points of pride — but points all the same.
Ray has one more year on his Giants contract, and considering how the offseason has played out in terms of pitching acquisitions, the team is counting on him to reclaim his partnership with Webb at the top of the rotation. They need him to stay healthy again…and to be better through August and September.
Can he do that? Sureyeerrrrmaaheeyybeeee…
All I know is that Ray is a pitcher who can be both fun and infuriating to watch — and often these emotions are felt in the same game, or in the same inning. A lot of his success in the league comes from getting out of his own way. Walks and home runs and home runs after walks have been his downfall for a long while now. When he won the AL Cy Young Award in 2021 with a league leading 157 ERA+, his HR/9 rate was 1.5, the same rate as it was the following year in 2022 when he posted a 100 ERA+. Players will always hit the ball hard and in the air against Ray, the difference is if there are runners on base when that happens. While he’s certainly used to, and accepted, that walks are a part of his game, they still very much matter. His 4.77 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2021 dropped to 3.42 in 2022, while his walk rate increased from 2.4 to 3.0. That small increase has a ripple effect. All those extra pitches thrown and extended innings add up over 180 innings and can whittle you down to average.
A pitcher like Webb has a myriad of ways to get a batter out in terms of pitch type and location. He’s not afraid of contact because it’s often shot into the ground. Ray is playing a much more dangerous game. He needs to miss bats. He needs the strikeout, and to get a lot of strikeouts, count leverage, chase, and whiff are key ingredients. Last season, Ray’s 27 Whiff-%, while still above leave average, was his lowest (in a full season) since 2016. His K/9 rate dropped below 10 for the first time since 2015. More plate appearances ended when the batter was ahead in the count against Ray than behind (265 to 253). Count leverage can mean the difference between facing an All-Star in the box or Matt Cain. An .888 OPS and a .455 OPS is pretty stark, and for Ray last season, it ended up being a coin flip at times what kind of hitter he faced. Best not to leave that kind of thing up to chance.
First pitch strikes are key, as are finding a way to wiggle yourself back into a count you fell behind in. Webb’s strikeout-to-walk ratio after he fell behind 1-0 to a hitter was still 2-to-1 last season. For Ray, it was a smidge better than one-to-one.
I think the key for Ray in 2026 is to reassert his fastball. This is somewhat obvious. As mentioned earlier, it’s no secret, with its backspin and rise, that it’s his best pitch — but just because its his best pitch doesn’t mean it needs to be saved for two-strike situations. In his most successful years, the four-seamer was a dynamic weapon in all counts. Ray threw a first-pitch fastball nearly 65% of the time in 2021, and last year that number dropped down to 49%. In 2017 (his first All-Star year), he threw his four-seamer 53% of the time when he was ahead in the count. Last year, that usage again fell to 49%. When he was behind to a batter in 2017, he threw his signature pitch 66% of the time; 65% in 2021 — but just 59% in 2025.
These are not monumental shifts in approach, but the drops seem to hint at a hesitancy or a lack of conviction around the pitch. Why? I don’t know, but Ray clearly needs to do better at establishing the fastball early on against hitters. If he doesn’t there’s a negative trickle down effect on the rest of his mix and his peripheral weapons become less dynamic. While his revamped change-up (with its Tarik Skubal inspired grip) got the most buzz last season, it’s Ray’s non-sliding slider that really feeds off of the four-seamer. The offering is an awkward duck for sure, with little drop or break, and easily turn into an ugly one if left up over the middle of the plate against righties, but when mixed in well, it’s historically flummoxed hitters with whiff rates nearing 50% for years.
As you can see, in 2025, the slider’s whiff-% came in at 29% — Ray’s lowest mark ever in a full season of work.
Ray’s fastball-slider pairing accounted for 90% (59% FF – 31% CH) of the offerings he threw en route to Cy Young hardware. Not all solutions lie in the past, and I appreciate the desire to evolve, especially as he strides into his mid-30s, but perhaps its best not to overthink certain things. Ray needs to quit playing around with toy pitches like that dang knuckle-curve and just lean on the attack.
