It's Wednesday, and you know what that means. MLB expert predictions!
Our MLB analysts have looked over the slate and are highlighting a couple of games, including what appears to be a mispriced Cleveland Guardians underdog play in Milwaukee.
Bolster your MLB picks on Wednesday, June 17, with this slate of selections.
UPDATE: Added a Cleveland Guardians ML pick from Jon Metler.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Pirates vs A's - Over 10.5
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
It was just last weekend that games in Sacramento were carrying totals as high as 14.5. Tonight, the Over 10.5 is paying plus money, even though the hitting conditions are once again ideal with double-digit winds blowing out to the home run alley in right-center field.
Last night's game produced another four home runs at Sutter Health Park, and there is plenty of reason to expect more offense today.
If the starters don't give up runs, the bullpens can help. This matchup features the fourth- and fifth-worst bullpens in baseball by ERA over the last two weeks.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
How to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, NBC Sports California
There's a reason lefties are hitting just .199 with a .666 OPS against Williams this season, and his skill set is particularly well-equipped to neutralize this lineup.
The key is Williams' four-seam fastball, which features exceptional riding life at the top of the strike zone. That pitch consistently gives left-handed hitters trouble, especially those looking to pull the ball with authority. Instead of driving it, they often get underneath the fastball, resulting in weak pop-ups and harmless fly balls.
At first glance, Milwaukee's left-handed-heavy lineup appears to be a favorable matchup against Williams. Dig a little deeper, though, and the numbers suggest otherwise. That's why I believe the Guardians should be priced more like a 53-cent favorite than a 47-cent underdog.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
How to watch: Guardians.TV, Brewers.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rays vs Dodgers - Under 7.5
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
Shohei Ohtani has been dominant at Dodger Stadium, allowing one earned run or fewer in all 12 of his regular-season home starts since joining the team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - JUNE 06: Luinder Avila #58 of the Kansas City Royals pitches during the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Minnesota Twins at Target Field on Saturday, June 6, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Michael Turner/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Royals are back at it trying to salvage a win from a series. Luinder Avila, who blew up last time out, will be starting against the best offense in baseball. What a weird thing to say about a Nationals franchise that has struggled along most recent years. At least KC gets to face a righty today. Maikel will not be in the lineup today as more injuries plague the team.
TORONTO, ON - JUNE 14: Ben Rice #22 of the New York Yankees hits a two run home run in the ninth inning during the game between the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Sunday, June 14, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Peter Sarellas/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Rogers Centre has proven to be a house of horrors for the Yankees over the last calendar year. In dropping the recent series opener in Toronto, the Yankees had lost nine of their last ten games north of the border including a pair of thumpings in the first two games of the 2025 ALDS. That the Yankees turned things around and won the final two games of the series—both with go-ahead home runs in the ninth inning—must give the team a ton of confidence after the Blue Jays had their number last year in the regular season and playoffs. Few hitters had a bigger impact for the Yankees that series than Ben Rice, and his late go-ahead blast earns his third appearance on At-Bat of the Week.
We join Rice with one out in the top of the ninth, the score knotted at 3-3. Pinch-runner Ryan McMahon stands on second after Paul Goldschmidt reached on an infield single and advanced on a throwing error by reliever Braydon Fisher. Fisher entered the game as one of Toronto’s most effective relievers with a 2.70 ERA, the righty striking out over a batter per inning and giving up well under one home run per nine. If Rice can come through in the clutch, the Yankees will very likely win the series at the Rogers Centre, something that felt like an impossibility less than 12 months ago. Indeed, they hadn’t done so since 2023.
The scouting report on Fisher shows that he throws the slider just shy of half the time and his curveball just shy of 30-percent of the time, so Rice knows that he will be fed a steady diet of breaking balls. Indeed, out of the six pitches that Fisher has thrown to Spencer Jones and Goldschmidt, four were sliders, one was a curveball, and one was a waste four-seamer just for show. Therefore, Rice is likely hunting a pitch that leaves Fisher’s hand middle-up with the idea that it will land down and in.
This first-pitch slider begins aimed just off the plate inside and drops straight downward. It likely didn’t have quite the aiming point that Rice is looking for, which explains his ability to not chase this pitch despite it landing close enough to the zone for the catcher to unsuccessfully challenge the ball call. When the catcher is fooled that a pitch is a strike and the hitter is not, you know that hitter has an elite knowledge of the strike zone.
True to the scouting report, Fisher sticks with the slider after narrowly missing with the one before.
I’m actually a lot more impressed that Rice took this pitch than the previous one, despite the fact that this one ends up farther from the strike zone than ball one. That’s because this slider exits Fisher’s hand aimed right down the middle, meaning Rice had to pick up the spin early, diagnose slider, and realize that it would break out of the zone all in fractions of a second.
Rice is in the driver’s seat, 2-0, but that does not guarantee that Fisher is going to give in and groove a fastball to get back into the count.
This is just an unfair pitch to drop in back door for the called strike. It looks like a ball high and away out of Fisher’s hand and never looks like it is in the zone until the very last moment where it barely grazes the corner of the strike zone low and away. If the Yankees still had a challenge remaining in this spot I would not have been surprised to see Rice use it a lose it, this curve earning the strike one call by the very slimmest of margins.
The problem for the hitter once a pitcher lands a breaking ball for a called low strike is that you then have to protect the bottom of the zone, which opens up ample opportunity for the pitcher to get you to chase a breaker below the zone. That’s precisely the tactic that Fisher employs with this slider to follow up the curveball.
I’m not sure what Rice is supposed to do in this situation. Once again, this pitch looks like a strike right down Broadway when it leaves Fisher’s hand, and at 89 mph the hitter has way less time to react than against your typical low-80s slider. You can tell Rice is still sitting on a breaking ball from the way he sinks into his legs and aligns his swing plane to track below the zone, but he’s just not precise enough with his barrel to make contact.
With just two pitches, Fisher has turned this AB on its head, going from way behind to being in full possession of count leverage. Rice is in trouble, given that Fisher showed he can both land the breaker for a called strike and command it below the zone for a chase and whiff. Another well-located slider should spell the end of this AB.
Instead, Fisher falls into the classic trap of trying to throw the best slider of his life rather than one that’s just incrementally better than the one before. He spikes this pitch into the dirt by Rice’s feet and he has to hop out of the way to avoid getting hit.
Now that it is a full count, we are once again faced with a situation that in certain cases might dictate an in-zone fastball to avoid putting a second baserunner on, but in Fisher’s case that by no means a sure bet.
Fisher sticks with his plan of throwing sliders and Rice sticks with his plan of hunting one. It’s a really good pitch from Fisher — a slider dotted right on the corner down and in. The problem for him is that it is an even better swing from Rice. This is the exact pitch he has been hunting the whole AB — a slider down and in that he can drop the bat head on and pull in the air with power. His patience pays off, and after having seen four previous sliders, he now knows exactly how this pitch is going to move and anticipates its trajectory perfectly with his barrel. The result: a booming two-run home run to right to give the Yankees the lead in the ninth inning of consecutive games.
Here’s the full AB:
You don’t normally see this level of emotion from Rice, including the bat flip and shouts of encouragement towards his dugout. I wonder if he is feeling extra pressure to be the team’s primary run producer with Aaron Judge out injured. Whatever the case he continues to produce clutch hits for the team in what has been a breakout season from rising star to true superstar. He’s the third-best hitter in MLB by wRC+ (171), and his ABs have become appointment viewing — the first homegrown position player we can say that about since Judge.
The Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees meet again following New York's 12-2 whooping of Chicago, and our White Sox vs. Yankees predictions expect a similar outcome.
Find out why in my MLB picks for Wednesday, June 17.
Who will win White Sox vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (+120)
This is one of the bigger ERA-to-expected ERA gaps you'll find this season.
Anthony Kay’s8.74 expected ERA is concerning, especially paired with a .438 xwOBA allowed and a 58%+ hard-hit rate. Regression is coming, and few teams are better equipped to take advantage of it.
In addition, it's not ideal that a 15% walk rate puts free runners in front of a New York Yankees lineup that I think has found its footing again.
Carlos Rodon counters with a 75th-percentile strikeout rate and 81st-percentile xERA against a Chicago White Sox lineup that strikes out heavily. Play to +100.
White Sox vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-103)
I like the Over to -130.
Anthony Kay's .594 expected SLG allowed and 10.3% barrel rate is a big story. I mentioned how I expect the Yankees to hit him hard, and there's just loads of evidence to back that up.
On the other side, Carlos Rodon's Bottom 3 percentile walk rate is always a story. It's an issue here because this White Sox team has quietly hung around the top ten of baseball in various hard-hit metrics.
The Yankees will do the heavy lifting, and the White Sox will put up a crooked inning in a hitter-friendly stadium.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 29-26, +5.46 units
Over/Under bets: 34-22, +15.82 units
White Sox vs Yankees odds
Moneyline: Chicago +155 | New York -190
Run line: Chicago +1.5 | New York -1.5
Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
White Sox vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the moneyline in seven of their last eight games (+6.10 Units / 63% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch White Sox vs Yankees and game info
Location
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date
Wednesday, June 17, 2026
First pitch
7:05 p.m. ET
TV
CHSN, Amazon Prime Video
White Sox starting pitcher
Anthony Kay (6-1, 4.34 ERA)
Yankees starting pitcher
Carlos Rodon (2-2, 3.19 ERA)
White Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
White Sox vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
LOS ANGELES — Shohei Ohtani will make his scheduled start on the mound against the Tampa Bay Rays, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said.
Ohtani (6-2, 1.06 ERA) left a game in Pittsburgh with left knee inflammation. He missed the next day’s game against the White Sox in Chicago, then returned. This will be his first start since the injury in Chicago.
Roberts said the swelling in Ohtani’s knee had “completely dissipated.”
“I saw that he had just a catch-play right now,” Roberts said of Ohtani’s work. “He’s going to do his touchy-feely deal from the mound in a little bit. I saw him play some catch. Looks good, feels good. Look forward to him making a start tomorrow.”
The game against the Rays is an early afternoon start. It’s a tight window to prep and an early start.
“He likes his sleep. It’s certainly not ideal, but the calendar is the calendar,” Roberts said. “He’ll get his rest and do what he can to post tomorrow. … Anyone that has anything that has a potential red flag, we’ll certainly be watching closely. But again, he wouldn’t start if we felt that we were going to put him in harm’s way. He’s a competitor.”
After a 1-0 win over the Rays, Roberts said Ohtani would not hit.
In his last pitching start, Ohtani gave up four runs — three earned runs — in 6 2/3 innings and the Dodgers lost to Pittsburgh, 9-8.
Edman back in action
Utility man Tommy Edman was reinstated by the Dodgers following offseason ankle surgery.
Edman, who was the 2024 NLCS MVP in the Dodgers World Series championship year, will make his season debut soon.
“The good thing was, I saw progress with every step along the way. It just wasn’t as fast as I expected,” Edman said.
TODAY’S GAME: The Astros and Tigers will play the rubber game of their three-game series today in an afternoon matchup at Daikin Park.
RHP Peter Lambert (5-4), who’s won three straight decisions, will get the start for the Astros opposite the Tigers and RHP Casey Mize (2-3), who’s being activated off of the IL to make today’s start.
DRIVING THE LAMBO: Today’s Astros starter RHP Peter Lambert has been solid in his 10 starts for the Astros, going 5-4 with a 3.47 ERA (22ER/57IP) with 53 strikeouts and a .212 opponent average.
Lambert pitched last year for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in the NPB, posting a 3.98 ERA (55ER/124.1IP) with 111 strikeouts in 23 appearances in Japan.
He began this season at Triple A Sugar Land (1.84 ERA in three appearances) before being called up to join the rotation on April 17.
VS. THE TIGERS: The Astros and Tigers will play all seven of their games against each other within a two-week span, with the Astros traveling to Detroit next weekend.
In 2025, the Astros and Tigers finished with identical 87-75 records, but because the Tigers won the season series over the Astros, they earned the final Wild Card playoff spot.
TODAY’S RADIO BROADCAST: The Astros English radio broadcast today will feature Robert Ford and Kevin Eschenfelder, who’s subbing for Steve Sparks.
Sparks will return to the booth on Friday.
LOS ASTROS: Space City Home Network is televising this series in English and Spanish with the Spanish broadcast being televised on SCHN2.
Enrique Vasquez and Gene Flores are on the call on the Spanish telecast this series.
PEN PALS: Since May 15, the Astros bullpen has a 2.73 ERA (33ER/108.2IP) with 101 strikeouts, a 1.04 WHIP and a .189 opponent average.
Among AL teams since May 15, the Astros bullpen ranks first in ERA, first in WHIP, and first in opponent batting average.
The Astros are also 17-13 since May 15.
ALL-STAR VOTING UPDATE: On Monday, MLB announced the first balloting update for the 2026 MLB All-Star Game, which revealed DH Yordan Alvarez as the AL’s top vote-getter among all position players.
Other Astros among the AL’s top 10 at their respective positions: 2B Jose Altuve (4th), SS Jeremy Peña (5th), 1B Christian Walker (9th), 3B Isaac Paredes (9th), and C Yainer Diaz (9th).
MAKING THE PLAYS: The Astros have committed the fewest errors (29) and own the best fielding percentage (.989) in the AL.
1B Christian Walker has led the way, as he has not committed an error in 74 games and 522 total chances.
LAST NIGHT’S WIN: The Astros and Tigers played an entertaining ballgame last night with Houston scoring three in the 8th for a 4-2 comeback victory.
3B Raynel Delgado (2×4, 2RBI) was the hero as the rookie hit a go ahead, two-run single in the 8th for what were his first Major League RBI.
RHP Hunter Brown (1ER/5.2IP) made his much-anticipated return from the IL and fanned seven in his outing, but did not factor into the decision.
THE HUNT IS ON: RHP Hunter Brown returned from the IL last night after dealing with a right shoulder strain which cost him over two months, 67 team games, and approximately 12 starts.
He was effective in his return, improving to 1-0 with a 1.10 ERA (2ER/16.1IP) in three starts in 2026.
A 2025 All-Star, Brown finished third in the 2026 AL in Cy Young voting after going 12-9 with a 2.43 ERA.
ON THE LEADERBOARD: DH Yordan Alvarez leads MLB in OPS (1.074), SLG (.644) and total bases (174).
In the AL, he ranks first in batting average (.326), first in hits (88), first in HR (24), first in XBH (38), second in RBI (54), second in OBP (.430), fourth in BB (46) and seventh in runs (49).
ON-BASE MACHINE: OF Yordan Alvarez is on a 23-game on-base streak (dating back to May 22), in which he’s batting .376 (32×85) with nine homers, 23 RBI, 15 walks, a .471 OBP and a 1.200 OPS.
This ranks as the fifth-longest streak of his career and his longest since he posted a 26-game streak from Aug. 2-Sept. 2, 2024.
SELECT COMPANY: DH Yordan Alvarez played in his 750th career game on Monday and went 2×4 to raise his career average to exactly .300.
With 194 career HR, Alvarez ranked sixth in MLB history in homers through a players first 750 career games.
THE LINEUP: The Astros have not repeated a lineup, using 75 different lineups in their 75 games.
DH Yordan Alvarez has the most starts at any spot in the lineup among Astros, hitting second 63 times.
WALKER, TEXAS HAMMER: 1B Christian Walker ranks third in the AL in RBI (52), behind only 1B Nick Kurtz (57) and DH Yordan Alvarez (54).
He also ranks tied for fifth in AL in homers (18), sixth in total bases (137) and tied for sixth in extra-base hits (32).
SEÑOR CIEN: IF Isaac Paredes, who recently reached 500 career hits and 100 career homers, recorded his 100th career double last night.
He is now just the fourth Mexican-born player in MLB history with 500 career hits, 100 doubles and 100 home runs, joining IF Vinny Castilla, IF Jorge Orta and IF Aurelio Rodríguez.
WHAT A RELIEF: LHP Josh Hader is 1-0 with three saves and a 0.00 ERA (0ER/6IP) in six appearances this season.
He’s allowed just two baserunners (one walk, one hit) and has fanned eight.
Hader had a delayed start to the season, missing the first two months with left biceps tendinitis.
ON THE MEND: RHP Cristian Javier started last night for Triple A Sugar Land at ABQ (COL) in what was his third minor league rehab start.
He worked 3.1 innings, allowing three runs on four hits with six strikeouts, while throwing 63 pitches (37 strikes).
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, June 17, 1:10 p.m. CT
Location: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
TV: Space City Home Network
Radio: KBME 790 AM & 94.5 FM HD2; TUDN 102.9 FM HD2 (Spanish)
WASHINGTON — Nationals reliever Paxton Schultz has his first career victory thanks to a rarely seen official scorer’s decision.
Schultz pitched a scoreless eighth inning in Washington’s 6-4 victory over Kansas City. The Nationals already were up 6-3 when he entered the game — they’d scored three runs in the bottom of the seventh — but that didn’t preclude Schultz from receiving the win.
In the top of the seventh, Washington was up 3-1 when Richard Lovelady entered the game with one out and two on. He retired two of the three men he faced, but the one batter who reached against him was Isaac Collins, whose two-run single tied the game at 3.
Although Lovelady was in the game when the Nationals took the lead for good, according to Rule 9.17 (c), a reliever is not supposed to receive the win if he has been “ineffective in a brief appearance.” If that sounds like a harsh way of describing Lovelady’s outing — 2/3 of an inning, one hit, zero earned runs — the rule book gives even more guidance.
“The official scorer generally should, but is not required to, consider the appearance of a relief pitcher to be ineffective and brief if such relief pitcher pitches less than one inning and allows two or more earned runs to score (even if such runs are charged to a previous pitcher),” it says.
The rules about awarding wins to relievers have been in the news recently after Texas rookie Robby Ahlstrom got his first victory via a scoring appeal. Ahlstrom entered with two outs in the fifth inning against Kansas City. The Rangers led 3-2 in a game they’d eventually win 4-2. Because the starter didn’t go five innings, the official scorer was supposed to give the win to the most effective reliever.
Ahlstrom got a celebratory beer shower after that game, only to find out that Jacob Latz — who came in later — had received the win. The Rangers appealed, and MLB eventually changed the win to Ahlstrom.
ARLINGTON, Texas — Texas Rangers rookie left-hander Robby Ahlstrom is OK not celebrating his first big league victory a second time.
That celebratory beer shower Ahlstrom got in the clubhouse after a road win in Kansas City just came four days before he officially was awarded that win.
“I mean, we celebrated like I did (get the win). I mean everybody thought it was going to be that way,” Ahlstrom said two days before his 27th birthday and a day after an appealed scoring change rightfully made him a winner.
“A little interesting finding out after the fact,” he said. “I was more thinking of like, I don’t want to go through that beer shower again.”
Ahlstrom came on with two outs in the fifth inning and a runner on in the finale of a four-game series against the Royals. He retired all four batters he faced while Texas extended its lead to 4-2. Cole Winn then threw a scoreless inning and closer Jacob Latz finished it with two perfect innings.
Since Texas starter Kumar Rocker had exited one out shy of qualifying for the win, it was assumed by everyone — except the official scorer that day — that Ahlstrom was the winner in his fourth big league appearance, and Latz had another save.
It wasn’t until Ahlstrom checked his phone afterward that he saw the official box score listing Latz as the winner instead.
“No one wants to get beer poured on them if they don’t even get the win,” Latz said. “So we’re happy that it was actually meaningful.”
The Rangers appealed the decision by the scorer. That process included input from Latz, who noted that he had entered the game in a save situation and said Ahlstrom deserved the win.
MLB made the change, with manager Skip Schumaker informing Ahlstrom just before pregame stretch and congratulating him again for his first win. His fellow relievers cheered the news.
“He got the beer shower already, so I’m glad he didn’t have to do that again,” said Schumaker, adding he was excited for Ahlstrom, who made his big league debut June 3.
“You put MLB next to it, it’s kind of cool getting your debut, your first strikeout. But the ultimate goal is to come up here and help the team win ballgames,” Ahlstrom said. “So if you have a ‘W’ next to your name, you did something right. So I think that’d be the coolest part.”
I still have plenty of digging to do to get myself out of this home run hole, but I've hit a dinger here in four straight articles and have gone +10.71 units over those four days. Let's keep the good time rolling with some four-baggers and MLB player props.
The price on Alec Bohm is nearly 300 points higher than it has been all week, yet today's matchup might be the best one he's seen. Michael Busch is also being priced as a lefty-on-lefty matchup, but the Colorado bullpen will be forced to cover innings today and doesn't have a left-handed option available.
Finally, I need a piece of this Pirates/Athletics game because Sutter Health Park is a launching pad, and Bryan Reynolds stands out.
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, June 17.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Alec Bohm
+940
Michael Busch
+508
Bryan Reynolds
+404
💲Today's HR parlay
+29317
Home run pick: Alec Bohm (+940)
Citizens Bank Park ranks as the second-best home run park on the board today, per Ballpark Pal. The Phillies have a home run edge against Sandy Alcantara, who owns the 18th-worst HR/9 rate among MLB starters over the last 30 days and doesn't generate many ground balls, with a 36.3% rate.
Philadelphia should get plenty of balls in the air, and somehow Alec Bohm is still paying a silly +940 to keep raking.
Bohm has been cruising at home in June with a 1.046 OPS. He has three home runs over his last 45 plate appearances and went deep again last night. Those previous home run prices were all shorter than +700. Where else are you going to find a cleanup hitter at this number?
Bohm also owns the second-best slugging percentage on the team over the last two weeks. He's seen Alcantara 32 times in his career and has hit .344 with an .851 OPS in that respectable sample.
I have this fair price closer to +650.
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBC 10, Marlins.TV
Home run pick: Michael Busch (+508)
Here is another great price in a plus-plus matchup against the Rockies, who have a short-leashed starter with home run issues and will eventually turn things over to a depleted bullpen that gets hit harder than any unit in baseball.
Michael Busch will have the wind helping his pull-side power today at Wrigley Field, with 13-mph winds blowing out to right-center. The attractive price is largely due to the lefty-on-lefty matchup, but Colorado starter Sean Sullivan left his last outing due to illness and threw only 49 pitches. He owns a 5.76 ERA in Triple-A this season and has allowed 10 home runs in just over 54 innings.
He'll eventually hand the ball to a bullpen that has three relievers unavailable, including its only left-handed option. This isn't a true lefty-on-lefty matchup for nine innings, and Busch offers plenty of value for a hitter who owns the third-best slugging percentage on the team over the last two weeks.
The Cubs are hitting multiple dingers today, and Busch's HR price has been +330 and +375 in this series.
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Bryan Reynolds (+404)
Sutter Health Park once again projects as the best home run park on the slate today. Bryan Reynolds hit two dingers last night, and I'm backing him to add another.
Aaron Civale is starting for the Athletics and making his first start off the IL. Before going down last month, he owned one of the worst HR/9 rates in baseball, and is an extreme flyball pitcher.
He likely won't go deep and will hand things over to a bullpen that ranks fourth-worst in baseball by ERA over the last two weeks.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SNP, NBCSCA
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 16-113, -31.26 units
Today’s HR parlay
Alec Bohm
Bet Now +29317
Michael Busch
Bryan Reynolds
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 16: Nasim Nuñez #26 of the Washington Nationals celebrates with third base coach Victor Estevez #7 after hitting a triple in the fifth inning during the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 in Washington, District of Columbia. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Nats have been a series winning machine lately, but sweeps have been hard to come by. They will look to change that against the struggling Royals. With a win today, the Nats would move to a wild 5 games over .500. Finishing off the sweep would be a big step for this group.
Blake Butera has made some tweaks at the bottom of his lineup. Jose Tena will get the start at DH. That means Jacob Young will sit and the outfield will be Daylen Lile in left, Dylan Crews in center and James Wood in right. Keibert Ruiz will be back behind the plate. Zack Littell had his first rough start in a while and is looking to bounce back.
With a righty on the mound, the Royals will add some left handers to the lineup. John Rave will make his first start of the series in right field. Lane Thomas remains in the lineup, but he is lower in the order. Catcher Carter Jensen is back in the lineup and leading off. That pushes Salvador Perez to DH. Luinder Avila gave up 8 runs and couldn’t get out of the 1st inning in his last start, but the righty throws hard.
The Nats have used late inning rallies to overcome the Royals in the first two games, and will look to finish off what would only be their second sweep of the year. Getting 5 games over .500 would be quite the accomplishment. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats.
CHICAGO — The Chicago Cubs placed right-handed pitcher Daniel Palencia on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation hours after he struck out three in the ninth inning to pick up the win in a 5-4 comeback victory against the Colorado Rockies.
The Cubs recalled Gavin Hollowell from Triple-A Iowa to replace Palencia.
After Palencia walked the first batter he faced, Cubs manager Craig Counsell went to the mound with a trainer to check on Palencia, but left him in the game to finish the inning. The Cubs scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth to give Palencia (2-1, 2.70 ERA) his second win.
”I was just concerned that the body language wasn’t normal,” Counsell said. “He said he was fine but then he had symptoms afterward, the elbow didn’t feel great afterward and didn’t feel great today.”
Hollowell, 28, has made one appearance for the Cubs this season, allowing two runs in 1 2/3 innings.
Boyd to get minor league rehab
Starter Matthew Boyd (knee) is headed for a minor league rehab stint after a successful bullpen session, and Justin Steele (elbow surgery) has rejoined the team to begin a throwing program expected to last about three weeks, Counsell said.
The Cubs still hope Steele will pitch again this season despite a flexor strain that pushed back his timetable.
“He’s got runway,” Counsell said. “He can’t afford any setbacks. But we’ve got time.”
Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said the wave of injuries to pitchers — the Cubs have eight pitchers on the injured list, including starters Boyd, Steele, Caleb Horton and Jamieson Taillon —- has pushed the depth the Cubs thought they had to the limit.
“We thought we had real numbers there, and then the number of injuries took care of it,” Hoyer said. “Now we have to be creative.”
Jun 17, 2023; Omaha, NE, USA; Tennessee Volunteers helmets lined up before the game against the LSU Tigers at Charles Schwab Field Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images
Tennessee picked up a commitment from Wyatt Hanoian on Tuesday, a transferring second baseman from Air Force. Hanoian made his commitment public on Tuesday night.
Hanoian hit .357 for Air Force this season as a true freshman, which put him on the Mountain West All-Freshman team. The switch-hitting second baseman hit six home runs, walked 32 times, hit 14 doubles and four triples this year.
The most impressive stat for Hanoian? A staggering on-base percentage of .498. For reference, Garrett Wright, who was seemingly always on base for Tennessee this season, held a .439 mark.
Hanoian made 33 starts at second base for the Falcons, along with eight in right field, a handful at third base, along with a few as the team’s designated hitter. The class of 2025 prospect was the No. 222 player out of the state of California in the recruiting cycle.
He joins former two-way Mercer star Braydon Kersey and Northwestern State pitcher Brody Trosclair in Tennessee’s current transfer portal class.
Infielder Wyatt Hanoian, @BaseballAmerica's No. 27 transfer, is transferring to Tennessee. Switch hitter with great zone control and feel for the barrel. Hit .357/.498/.573 with six HR, 14 doubles, four triples and 32 walks to 21 strikeouts in 2026. pic.twitter.com/YWrTtZdaFe
We got a big ol' slate in front of us, and there are quite a few MLB pitcher props that have me absolutely giddy today.
I will be fading an all-time great, while backing another to do what he does best. There is plenty to like on the MLB player props board, so let's cash some tickets and have a day!
*Editor's note* Max Scherzer has been scratched from tonight's start*
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
Player
Pick
Odds
Shohei Ohtani
Over 6.5 Strikeouts
+117
Max Scherzer
Under 3.5 Strikeouts
-112
Gavin Williams
Over 2.5 Earned Runs
+108
Strikeout prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 strikeouts (+117)
It is about time my MLB picks back the great one on the bump.
Shohei Ohtani looks determined to make a serious run at the NL Cy Young Award, and he finds himself in another strong spot to clear 6.5 strikeouts against a scrappy Tampa Bay Rays lineup that has been a bit swing-happy lately.
Over their last 10 games, six Rays hitters own a strikeout rate of at least 24.3%. Those numbers remain fairly consistent away from home as well, with five hitters carrying a strikeout rate of 23.3% or higher across their last 60 road plate appearances.
Ohtani has been dealing at Dodger Stadium this season, posting a 33.1% strikeout rate at home. He has also generated a 31.5% called strike plus whiff rate, a 14.1% swinging strike rate, and a 30.5% whiff rate in home starts.
The superstar also owns the No. 1 pitcher rating in both timeframes on Batters-Box. In 14 elite-rated pitching matchups, Ohtani has recorded six or more strikeouts in 71.43% of those starts and has gone Over this 6.5 strikeout number 50% of the time.
While the sample size is still relatively small, his performances this season suggest he is hunting hardware, and that hardware is the Cy Young Award.
I would play this down to +105 and gladly take the value on the 6.5 number. If you prefer the safer route at over 5.5 strikeouts, I would look to pair it with another prop from today's card.
Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SNLA, RAYS
Earned runs prop: Gavin Williams Over 2.5 earned runs (+108)
I found it very hard to pass up backing one of the best lineups in baseball to score at least three runs against one of the worst-rated pitchers on today's slate.
That is especially true when you consider how dominant the Milwaukee Brewers have been at American Family Field, where they are averaging more than three first five innings runs per game this season.
Milwaukee's offense has been seeing the ball exceptionally well over its last 12 games, ranking second in wOBA, third in both wRC+ and OPS, and fourth in contact rate.
The Brewers also feature five elite-rated bats in Batters-Box's current season ratings as they draw Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams, who owns the second-worst pitcher rating over that same span.
Williams brings in poorly rated ISO and hard-contact metrics for this matchup. On the road this season, he has allowed 47.1% hard contact along with a 54.8% elevation rate.
The Cleveland starter also owns a 5.00 xERA and has surrendered 57.6% hard contact with an 18.6% barrel rate across his last 90 road batters faced. During that stretch, opponents have posted a .394 xBA, .747 xSLG, and .361 xwOBA.
Asking the seventh-highest scoring first five-inning offense in baseball to push across three runs against a pitcher allowing this much quality contact feels well worth a sprinkle.
If the earned-run aspect gives you any concern, the Brewers' first five-team total over is a perfectly viable alternative.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: BREW, CLEG
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 225-387-35, +10.54 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Have a day, Mikey Romero… and about five other guys! The former first rounder had three hits off of the Iron Pigs (Phillies AAA), two of which being RBI knocks in vital spots. One opened scoring in the third with two outs, and the other added a huge cushion run in the top of the ninth to score Anthony Seigler, who himself had just broken a tie with a single of his own that carried a .278 WPA. Finally, Vinny Capra’s had two hits, Tsung-Che Cheng notched his sixth home run of the season and Tyler Uberstine had a solid four innings in relief.
The Sea Dogs may have been the beneficiary of four defensive errors by the Patriots (Yankees AA) and that may have been extremely important in what would become a walkoff win, with an ending sequence must have been exhilarating to be a part of. With Portland’s chances of winning hovering around 10 percent to start the 9th inning, Marvin Alcantara hit a home run to tie things up. After Abhram Liendo reached on a single, Franklin Arias was then intentionally walked, and new arrival Stanley Tucker made them pay for advancing Liendo with a walk-off double. Tucker is right at home with his new team: in addition to pinch hitting for a rehabbing Romy Gonzalez, who himself had a two-run homer as he works his way back up to Boston, he also swiped his first two bags in Double-A. Good day to be a second baseman for the Sea Dogs!
Besides a 3-for-3 performance by Newton-native Jack Winnay, who’s slashing .343/.465/.629 in the month of June so far and who also boasted a double and a walk Tuesday night in Jersey Shore (Phillies High-A), the Drive had just three more hits and stranded eight. But, it didn’t matter that Winnay and Enddy Azocar were the only batters really seeing the ball well last night, because former Vanderbilt Commodore Devin Futrell had a fantastic outing. He pitched seven scoreless innings, striking out five and allowing just two hits. Steven Brooks would allow a solo shot, but that was the closest the Drive would come to letting that caliber of start slip into obscurity.
As the RidgeYaks head into their third series of June, they still have won just one game on the month. This one wasn’t particularly close despite the pitching staff striking 13 Nationals out in Fredericksburg. This game looked like it may have been close for the first few innings, but the RidgeYaks had no answer for the relief staff Fredericksburg trotted out, having just one baserunner after the fourth; meanwhile, Salem kept letting runs through.
With rain possibly on the horizon, please do not have a wet Wednesday.
James Brown, the fabulous soul singer, was known as the Hardest Working Man in Show Business due to his constant touring, tireless work ethic, and electric live performances.
I’ve already told my family that I want Brown’s I Feel Good as my exit song at my funeral. I figure it’s good to send everyone out on a high note.
Who was the hardest-working man in baseball history? I’m going with Satchel Paige. Paige pitched for more than 40 years in locales as diverse as Bismarck, North Dakota, and the Caribbean. He pitched in small-town sandlots and before crowds of more than 78,000 at Cleveland Stadium. If there was a paycheck and a crowd, Satchel found a mound.
Paige always seemed to have a little something extra. When he was a child lugging bags at the train station, he brilliantly devised a pole-and-rope contraption that allowed him to carry more than one bag at a time. At a dime per bag, it added up. A coworker said Satch, who was born Leroy Robert Page, looked like a satchel tree. The name stuck. Credit his parents with the change from Page to Paige, which sounded more high class. So Satchel Paige it was.
Just barely 12, Satch was sentenced to six years at the Alabama Reform School for skipping school and petty theft. It seems like a stiff sentence, but Satchel came out of the school knowing how to pitch, courtesy of the Reverend Moses Davis, a trustee of the school and its baseball coach.
After his release from reform school, Paige joined the semi-pro Mobile Tigers. By 1926, he was pitching for the Chattanooga White Sox of the Negro Southern League.
One of the interesting things about Paige is that he was one of the few Negro League players to have played in almost every year of the league’s existence. The Negro Leagues started in 1920 and ran through 1948. Yes, there were a few teams that continued to play after 1948, mostly on a barnstorming basis, but the league was never the same after integration. Paige pitched for the Kansas City Monarchs from 1939 to 1942 and led the team to four consecutive Negro American League pennants, including a four-game sweep of Josh Gibson and the Homestead Grays in the 1942 Negro League World Series.
Today we throw around words like epic and legendary far too casually. Bo Jackson throwing Harold Reynolds out at home plate was epic and legendary. The wedding dance you went to last weekend? Probably neither. Satchel Paige was a living legend. He was often epic and legendary.
Bob Feller, one of the all-time greats, spent many offseasons barnstorming with Paige. Feller was a man who considered himself one of the greatest pitchers ever, yet when pressed, he admitted that Paige was the greatest he had ever seen.
Joe DiMaggio, who knew a thing or two about pitchers, said Paige was the “best and fastest” he’d ever faced. I love this description from Hall of Fame catcher Biz Mackey, who said Paige’s fastball could pound steak into hamburger. Paige did have a legendary fastball, and he gave different pitches colorful names: Bee Ball, Midnight Rider, Trouble Ball, Long Tom, and Jump Ball. He also had a hesitation pitch that drove hitters crazy.
When Paige worked out for the Cleveland Indians, owner Bill Veeck said Paige threw four of his five pitches directly over a cigarette.
With someone like Paige, whose career spanned six decades, how does one rank his legendary moments? You don’t. These, however, are my favorite Satchel moments, in no particular order.
Striking out Josh Gibson
The setting was Game Two of the 1942 Negro League World Series between the Kansas City Monarchs and the Homestead Grays. The great Buck O’Neil was playing first base for the Monarchs that day. This story was one of Buck’s favorite stories to tell, and no one could tell a story better than Buck O’Neil.
Buck said Paige came on in the seventh inning in relief of Hilton Smith. With two outs and a man on third and the Monarchs clinging to a 2-0 lead, Satch called Buck to the mound and said, “Nancy, you know what I’m fixin’ to do?”
Buck: “Yes, you’re fixin’ to get these other guys out.”
Satch: “No, I’m going to walk these next two guys so I can pitch to Josh.”
O’Neil promptly called time and motioned manager Frank Duncan to the mound. Duncan listened to the story, then agreed with Satch, saying, in effect, that the people in the crowd wanted to see Satch pitch to Josh. Paige promptly walked the next two hitters. Gibson stepped in, looking like a baseball version of Paul Bunyan.
Gibson, a fearsome slugger, was baseball’s most feared power hitter.
The loquacious Paige then told Gibson what he was going to throw him. Ballsy.
“Josh, I’m going to throw you a fastball.” Boom, strike one.
“Josh, I’m going to throw you another fastball, in about the same location, only faster!” Boom, strike two.
“Now Josh, I’m ahead 0-2 and I’m supposed to brush you off the plate. But I’m not going to throw smoke at yo yoke. I’m going to throw a pea at yo knee.”
Fastball at the knees. Strike three.
Three blazing fastballs, and Josh Gibson, arguably the greatest hitter in Negro Leagues history, never moved the bat off his shoulder.
The story is now nearly 84 years old, and everyone involved is long gone. But isn’t that one of the things that makes baseball such a romantic game?
The tales passed down from generation to generation. Is it 100 percent factual? Who knows? There are several versions of this story floating around. I don’t care if it is 100 percent factual. I like the story just as it is.
The Nancy Story
This is one of the most famous Paige stories and has several variations. My favorite comes from a description by Buck O’Neil, as quoted by Joe Posnanski in his terrific book, The Soul of Baseball. According to Buck, Satchel was barnstorming through North Dakota (who knew North Dakota was such a baseball hotbed?) when a beautiful young woman named Nancy took a seat close to the dugout. Satchel always had a weakness for a beautiful woman, and he possessed the necessary game to interact with them.
After a night on the town, Satchel invited Nancy to join them at their next stop in Chicago. Ever the gentleman, Satch gave Nancy cash for the train fare and instructions to meet them at the Evans Hotel. True to her word, Nancy showed up at the Evans and retired to Satchel’s room.
Buck was sitting in the lobby enjoying an iced tea when Satchel’s fiancée, Lahoma, unexpectedly arrived. Buck, ever the alert wingman, ran interference and instructed the bellman to put Lahoma in a vacant room next to his and to alert Satch.
The surprised Paige climbed down the fire escape, then walked around to the front of the hotel where Buck and Lahoma were waiting.
“Lahoma! What a pleasant surprise to see you!”
Later that evening, Buck knew Satchel would have to make amends with Nancy, so he kept his ears open.
Sure enough, Buck could hear Satchel lightly rapping on Nancy’s door, followed by, “Nancy. Nancy. NANCY!”
This brought a suspicious Lahoma out of her room.
Once again, Buck, being a gold-medal wingman, opened his door and said, “Satch, are you looking for me?”
Paige: “Yes, Nancy, what time is the game tomorrow?”
From that point on, Buck’s new nickname was Nancy.
Making His First Cleveland Start
Revolutionary owner Bill Veeck signed Paige to a major-league contract with the Cleveland Indians in early July 1948. On July 9, 1948, the 42-year-old Paige made his major-league debut, throwing two scoreless innings of relief. He brought the crowd of almost 35,000 to its feet with his hesitation pitch. Paige made seven more relief appearances, throwing a total of 18 innings, striking out 10 while allowing only four runs.
American League president, and resident killjoy, Will Harridge eventually declared the hesitation pitch illegal, saying that if Paige threw it again, it would be called a balk.
Finally, on August 3, the Indians gave Paige his first start. A crowd of 72,562 fans—an attendance record for a night baseball game—packed Cleveland Stadium to witness the event. Paige went seven innings, scattering seven hits. The Washington Senators nicked him for two runs in the first before Paige settled down. He surrendered only one more run before yielding to Ed Klieman, who closed out the 5-3 Cleveland victory.
Paige went 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA down the stretch for the eventual World Series champions and drew huge crowds whenever he pitched.
A crowd of 51,013 packed Comiskey Park for his August 13 start, a five-hit complete-game shutout.
Another 78,382 showed up for his August 20 start in Cleveland, where he threw a three-hit complete-game shutout.
Paige drew 201,829 fans for those three starts, which is astounding.
It’s also worth noting that 1948 was the last time Cleveland won the World Series.
In doing so, Paige became the first Black pitcher to appear in the World Series when he made a relief appearance in Game Five.
Paige played for the Indians in 1949, then followed Veeck to the St. Louis Browns, where he pitched from 1951 to 1953.
Even more astounding, Paige made the American League All-Star team in both 1952 and 1953 at the ages of 45 and 46.
Once his contract with the Browns expired, Paige returned to barnstorming.
Which brings us to our next segment…
Pitching for the Kansas City Athletics at the Age of 59
Kansas City Athletics owner Charlie Finley declared that September 25, 1965, would be Satchel Paige Day. In addition to honoring Paige, Finley signed the 59-year-old pitching legend and announced that Paige would start against the powerful Boston Red Sox.
By 1965, Paige was more than a star in Kansas City. He was a living legend.
His night began in pure Satchel fashion, with Paige sitting in a rocking chair, a blanket draped over his legs, and a pretty nurse rubbing liniment on his famed pitching arm. When the game started, the rocker was moved to the A’s dugout, which was below field level. Paige rocked away while the A’s batted.
When asked about the rocker, Paige delivered this pearl:
“At my age, I’m close enough to being below ground as it is.”
Finley asked Paige if he could pitch three innings.
Paige replied, “That depends. How many times a day?”
For this promotion, Finley did it right. He invited former stars of the Monarchs and the Kansas City Blues to a luncheon honoring Paige and even hosted a three-inning exhibition before the game, which featured Buck O’Neil, Hilton Smith, Cool Papa Bell, and Bullet Rogan.
It had been 12 years since Paige had pitched in the majors. He ran into a little trouble in the first, giving up a two-out double to Carl “bleeping” Yastrzemski before retiring Tony Conigliaro on a fly ball to left to escape the jam.
Paige sailed through the second and third innings while Kansas City squeezed across a run to give him the lead.
Paige came to the mound in the fourth, but after throwing his warm-up pitches, manager Haywood Sullivan emerged from the dugout and, to thunderous boos, removed him from the game.
As Satchel approached the dugout, the fans erupted in a standing ovation, prompting Paige to doff his cap twice and bow to the adoring crowd. The stadium lights were then turned off, matches were lit, and the crowd of 9,289 sang “The Old Gray Mare.”
In attendance that night was a nine-year-old from Independence named Rick Sutcliffe.
Sutcliffe later said, “I’m quite sure that game had something to do with me wanting to be a baseball player.”
Home plate umpire Bill Valentine said that Paige was really pitching and that Boston was doing its best to hit him.
“He kept the ball down, kept it moving below their knees,” Valentine recalled. “I’ll bet he wasn’t throwing 80 mph, and they’d swing and say, ‘Son of a bitch, that pitch was right there.'”
Jim Gosger, who later played for Kansas City and made both the first and last outs against Paige that night, later said:
“My two biggest thrills in baseball were batting against Satchel Paige and hitting a home run against Whitey Ford the only time I faced him. As far as I’m concerned, Satchel was a prince.”
Indeed.
Paige even came to the plate in the second inning and struck out to end the frame.
Kansas City led 2-0 after six innings, but Boston, sparked by a two-run inside-the-park home run by Conigliaro in the eighth, won the game 5-2.
Also playing in the game were José Tartabull (father of future Royal slugger Danny Tartabull) and Diego Seguí (father of David Seguí).
Paige was paid $3,500 for his three innings of work and needed only 28 pitches to retire 10 batters.
Truly amazing stuff for a 59-year-old.
But as Satchel so often said:
“How old would you be if you didn’t know how old you were? Age is a question of mind over matter. If you don’t mind, it doesn’t matter.”
Post-baseball, Paige continued to live an interesting life. He even had his six rules for living:
Avoid fried meats, which angry up the blood.
If your stomach disputes you, lie down and pacify it with cool thoughts.
Keep the juices flowing by jangling around gently as you move.
Go light on the vices, such as carrying on in society. The social ramble ain’t restful.
Avoid running at all times.
Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.
One more Satchel story. September 14th, 1951. Fenway Park. The Red Sox are having a good year, sitting at 84 and 54. St. Louis is well, the St. Louis Browns. They’re playing out the string at 43 and 95. Satchel comes in to pitch the 9th inning of what is a 9 to 6 Boston win. He gets Johnny Pesky on a groundout to the second baseman. The second batter is Ted Williams. Williams will soon be off to Korea to fight in his second war. This is a huge matchup for both men. The greatest hitter who ever lived against the greatest pitcher who ever lived. Satch was 44 at the time, while Williams was still in his long prime. 1951 was like a lot of summers for Williams. He led the league in multiple offensive categories, walks, slugging percentage, on base percentage and total bases and yet somehow only finished 13th in the MVP vote. He was far and away the best player in the American League, except in the eyes of the voters.
Paige got a couple of quick strikes on Williams on breaking pitches before somehow slipping a fastball by the Splinter for strike three. Understand, Williams did not strike out a lot. in 1951, he struck out 45 times in 675 plate appearances. Yet somehow, someway, Paige dug into his bag of tricks and got Williams. Ted was so disgusted with himself that upon returning to the dugout, he smashed his bat against the wall until it shattered into several pieces. After the game, Williams took the remnants of that bat to the St. Louis clubhouse and asked Paige to sign it. Today that bat is in the possession of the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
The respect between those two men was great. When Williams was inducted into the Hall of Fame, he used his speech to shame and implore the Hall to start accepting some of the great Negro League players into the Hall. In 1971, Paige became the first black player elected to the Hall.
In 1968, he became a deputy sheriff with Jackson County, Missouri, a job that didn’t require him to show up. He later tried running for political office.
In August 1968, he joined the Atlanta Braves as an advisor, in an attempt to qualify for his major league pension.
In 1973, Paige joined the AAA Tulsa Oilers as a pitching coach.
Paige suffered a fatal heart attack at his home in Kansas City on June 8, 1982. He was 75. Paige is interred at Forest Hill Calvary Cemetery, on the city’s south side.
Josh Inglis: PIT/A's: Over 10.5
Jon Metler: CLE ML
Joe Osborne: TB/LAD: Under 7.5
COVERS INTEL: 
Alec Bohm
Michael Busch
Bryan Reynolds
Shohei Ohtani
Max Scherzer
Gavin Williams
