SEATTLE, WA - APRIL 11: Members of the Seattle Mariners celebrate after winning the game between the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Saturday, April 11, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Eric Hiller/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Rick Rizzs Happy Totals: 16 Dan Wilson Tough One Tonights: 16 Run Differential: +7
PITTSBURGH — The almost maniacal preparation Paul Skenes pours into every start already is the stuff of legend, just two years into his career.
Still, even the Pittsburgh Pirates ace knows no matter how his pregame routine goes, he’s never really sure what kind of stuff he’s going to have on a given day until he steps onto the mound and the leadoff hitter steps into the box.
Many times, such as in Milwaukee, it nearly is perfect.
Then there are afternoons like against St. Louis, when the command that seems to come so easily looks far more ordinary than extraordinary.
Skenes’ third pitch of the game landed in the right-field seats at PNC Park courtesy of Cardinals rookie JJ Wetherholt. Three batters later, Jordan Walker turned on a sweeper that didn’t sweep and sent it into the first row of bleachers in left to give the Cardinals the early momentum on their way to a 10-5 victory and a four-game sweep.
The loss dropped Skenes (4-2) to 0-5 against the Cardinals, though that number is a little misleading. His career ERA versus St. Louis sits at 2.95, even after allowing five runs, four earned, in his first rocky performance since a bumpy opening day in New York against the Mets.
That number is telling of the almost impossibly high standard Skenes has set for himself during his rapid rise from first overall draft pick to arguably the best pitcher in the game.
“Nobody expects more out of Paul Skenes than Paul does out of himself,” Pirates manager Don Kelly said. “I think when he has a game like today or the opener, we have to find a way to pick him, because he picks us up all the time.”
Yet given a chance to put a halt to Pittsburgh’s first rough patch this season, Skenes didn’t quite have it. He fell behind Wetherholt 2-0 before the St. Louis second baseman turned on a 95 mph fastball — a tick below the usual 98-99 range Skenes sits at — and laced it into the seats above the Roberto Clemente Wall in right.
Ivan Herrera followed with an infield single. Two batters later, Walker pounced on an 83 mph sweeper that caught the inside part of the plate. The ball sailed just over the glove of Pittsburgh left fielder Jake Mangum, sending the Cardinals on their way to their first four-game sweep at PNC Park since 2019.
Asked why St. Louis might have his number — relatively speaking — the 23-year-old Skenes responded with his typical mix of sarcasm and blunt truth.
“They score more runs than us,” he said.
Skenes settled in — his nine strikeouts were a season high — but when the Cardinals were able to make contact, they made things happen. They added a run in the third after an infield single by Alec Burleson and a throwing error by rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin led to an RBI single by Nolan Gorman. In the fifth, Burleson flipped his bat at a changeup well off the plate and dumped it into left field to drive in Wetherholt.
“I think that sometimes teams go up there, try to work his pitch count, try to get that up,” Kelly said. “It doesn’t seem to be the case. They’re going up there swinging and trying to get their swing off. ... They put some good swings on the ball today.”
The Pirates fell to 16-16, hardly the horrific start of a year ago that cost former manager Derek Shelton his job, but it also has them off the pace a bit in the hyper-competitive NL Central with first-place Cincinnati coming in for the weekend.
“I mean, every team is going to have skids,” Skenes said. “Just got to get back to who we are and just play our game. Not try to do too much. Just think we’re trying to do too much a little bit, especially today. Just got to be us.”
Pittsburgh second baseman Brandon Lowe said the quiet part out loud about how spoiled the Pirates have become when Skenes’ familiar No. 30 is standing on the mound.
“It’s pretty difficult when you sit there and you’re saying, ‘Oh, he struggled’ and he gave up three (runs),” Lowe said.
Lowe, one of a handful of veterans acquired in the offseason to surround the Pirates’ young core that includes Skenes and the 20-year-old Griffin, is not concerned about the last week snowballing into something that would put a damper on the positive vibes created during a season that began with plenty of promise.
“When you’re in the training room, you’re in the tubs and stuff like that, showers, you just kind of have conversations and talking with these guys for a long time,” said Lowe, who hit his eighth home run of the season in the seventh. “They have a pretty good head on their shoulders and the way they look at things. ... So it’s just one of those things, you kind of flush the bad ones and focus on the next one.”
Who will win Reds vs Pirates today: Reds moneyline (+116)
The Cincinnati Reds will send Brady Singer to the hill tonight, and he’s held the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup to a .234 average across 77 at-bats. Singer has also allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last three starts. In his last road outing, the righty allowed three earned to the Minnesota Twins across six innings of work.
The Bucs are hitting just .244 against right-handers, and they’ve dropped five games in a row. Pittsburgh was just swept at home by the St. Louis Cardinals. Mitch Keller has given up seven earned runs across his last two outings at PNC Park.
While he’s held the Reds to a .220 average in 118 at-bats, Cincy is playing good baseball right now, and their 10-3 road record is very impressive. The Pirates are just 8-9 at home.
COVERS INTEL: Mitch Keller has struggled in night games, posting an 8.00 ERA across two starts.
Reds vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 runs (+100)
Both starters have pitched quite well lately, giving their respective teams a chance to win. However, neither has been completely lights out, and both bullpens have been shaky over the last week, giving up numerous runs in the middle and late innings.
Also, the Over has comfortably hit in back-to-back meetings, with both games finishing 8-3. The Bucs were atrocious on the hill against the Cardinals, allowing 10 or more runs in two of the three contests – at home.
The Reds are a very good team on the road, and whether it’s against Keller, the Pittsburgh bullpen, or both, they will add to the Pirates’ misery with a solid offensive performance.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets:9-9, -4.45 units
Over/Under bets:10-8, 0.48 units
Reds vs Pirates odds
Moneyline: Cincinnati +114 | Pittsburgh -126
Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (+183) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+158)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+101) | Under 8.5 (-116)
Reds vs Pirates trend
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 away games (+8.65 Units / 66% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Pirates.
How to watch Reds vs Pirates and game info
Location
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Friday, May 1, 2026
First pitch
6:45 p.m. ET
TV
Apple TV
Reds starting pitcher
Brady Singer (2-1, 4.97 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcher
Mitch Keller (2-1, 3.18 ERA)
Reds vs Pirates latest injuries
Reds vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 01: Carlos Correa #1 of the Houston Astros reacts after hitting a home run in the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Daikin Park on April 01, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The last time we took a broad look at the “upside down” standings was two weeks ago, when the MLB season was at the 1/8th mark. This weekend marks the 1/5th mark, 20 percent of the way through the season. Out of all 30 teams, here are the bottom six:
It’s a good reminder that, as much as it doesn’t seem that way based on recent events, Boston isn’t the only city whose baseball team has greatly disappointed thus far. And possibly the most appalling tidbit in that screenshot is that the Red Sox are just 3.5 games out of the playoffs as we enter the month of May.
Remember the first week of the season when the Astros handily swept the Red Sox in Houston, and it looked like Boston wasn’t even in the same league as the team they were playing? They then went on to lose nine of their next ten, including being swept by the (not terrible) Rockies. The Astros have a worse record than the Red Sox this season.
We see the Astros again this weekend, and they are 4-12 on the road on the season. Their injured list includes pitchers Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, and Josh Hader. It includes shortstop Jeremy Pena and outfielders Joey Loperfido and Jake Meyers.
Houston’s pitching is the worst in all of baseball this season, with a team ERA of 6.08, almost a full run worse than the next team (Washington – 5.11). The bullpen ERA of 6.63 is particularly alarming. The Sox will face Mike Burrows (6.25 ERA), Spencer Arrighetti (2.00), and a new addition to the rotation in Kai-Wei Teng (2.75) in this series. As a team, Houston is walking batters at an MLB worst 13.7%. Take a strike this weekend, will ya?
Which of these teams, the Astros or the Red Sox, has been the bigger disappointment thus far? What about throughout the entire league? (The answer is probably the Mets.) Discuss in the comments and enjoy the weekend!
CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 28: Daniel Schneemann #10 of the Cleveland Guardians looks on prior to the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Grace Hoppel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Schneemann means “Snowman” in German and “Making Himself a Must-Play Hitter” in Cleveland Guardian.
Coming into 2026, it would surprise almost no one to hear Daniel Schneemann made the Opening Day roster. Despite entering the season with a career wRC+ of 84, Schnee was a good, if not great, defender at virtually every position on the field. This defensive flexibility more than makes up for the lower than average offensive production and allows him to almost perfectly fill the role of an everyday bottom of the line up utility player. What might be surprising for almost everyone is that through the Guardians first 32 games so far in 2026, Daniel Schneemann has been by a very wide margin the team’s most productive hitter, with a 167 wRC+ so far in 2026. The question we’re going to look at today is whether or not this offensive production is sustainable, or if this is just a blazing start to 2026.
I should start off by saying we are still very early in the season, and we’re going to be analyzing a very small sample size of plate appearances (87 to be exact), but there’s still a lot of data to look at and a lot of conclusions we can draw. The first number to look at is Schnee’s wOBA vs xwOBA, and as it stands currently, he’s outperforming his xwOBA by about .048. This is a pretty big outperformance, and as of writing sits at the 18th “luckiest” hitter per Savant. The positive side is looking strictly at his xwOBA of .369, which is still top ~80th percentile in MLB, ranking him 56 out of 273 qualified MLB hitters. The only two hitters with a better xwOBA on the Guardians are unsurprisingly José Ramírez and Chase DeLauter.
The set of data we want to look at next involves metrics that have high correlation with better quality of contact. If you’ve been listening to player and coach interviews, or the broadcast commentary, you’re probably aware that Schnee spent the offseason trying to build more muscle. Now it’s not wholly a 1 to 1 comparison, as there are a lot of other factors that contribute, but we can see this in the data a little bit, as his average bat speed is up from around 70.8 over his first 2 seasons to 71.5 in 2026, and he’s gotten his average exit velo up from around 88.8 to 90mph in 2026. Schnee has also gotten exceptionally efficient at getting this now harder contact into more optimal launch angles. The overwhelming majority of extra base hits come from batted balls in the 8-32 degree launch angle window. Statcast uses LA SS% (Launch Angle Sweet-Spot %) to denote the percentage of in-play batted balls that fall into this optimal launch angle window. Schnee is hitting this window on a staggering 46.2% of his batted balls. That percentage ranks him 7th out of 273 qualified MLB hitters on Savant. This is exactly what you want to do to be able to more consistently get extra base hits.
A lot of you may be sensing a “but” coming, and unfortunately your instincts are good. While everything we’ve talked about before is incredible, when we want to talk about sustainability, there’s a few big factors we haven’t looked at yet. The biggest one is Chase%. One of the most important aspects of hitting is making good swing decisions. Right now Schnee’s Chase% is up from 25.8 in 2025 to 35.1 in 2026. And his Whiff% is up from 29.6 in 2025 to 36 in 2026. How concerning is this? Well, on the surface the answer would be “Very concerning.” That Whiff% is in the bottom 5 percentile on Savant, and the Chase% is bottom 19 percentile.
A very high Chase% combined with high Whiff% is a very bad combination for hitters in general, and this is likely where we will get our answer of “is this sustainable for Schnee?” The obvious adjustment from the league is to throw more pitches out of the zone to try to get him to expand his zone and get himself out. The silver lining is that Schnee’s BB% and K% are pretty much in line with his career averages thus far. So it’s not a total panic yet.
If we were to profile 2026 Daniel Schneemann so far, he’d be considered a high risk, high reward, power- driven hitter. If he starts seeing more pitches out of the zone but is able to resist chasing more than he is now, and if we assume some regression to reel back in some of the batted ball luck so far, there’s no reason to think he can’t continue as a very solid 110-120 wRC+ super utility man. The batted ball metrics are great, the plate discipline is concerning – right now they balance out nicely to equal a phenomenal baseball player all around, especially considering above average defensive capabilities at many positions.
It’ll be very exciting to see how the month of May goes for Schnee, as we start to see if the League begins to approach him differently. Let it snow, Daniel, and keep playing your heart out.
The Lake Elsinore Storm became the first minor league affiliate to sweep a series this season and now have a winning record going into a tie for first in their division. The Low-A team, boasting many of the 2025 draftees of the Padres, has had many surprise players surge in the last couple of weeks. Two undrafted free agents join a couple of the top-rated draft prospects to form the nucleus of an offense that has heated up for the Storm.
Both starter Griffin Canning and reliever Yuki Matsui are reaching the ends of their rehab windows and will be joining the San Diego Padres soon. Canning should be fully built up and must be activated by Monday. Matsui has pitched in back-to-back games and has completed a two-inning appearance. He will join the Padres by this weekend.
Sung-Mun Song was the 27th man for the Mexico City Series but returned to El Paso after debuting with the Padres as a pinch runner. A brief glance at his numbers would make many wonder why he has not been brought up to the major league team. A little deeper look shows major concerns with barrel and hard-hit rates. He has almost no slug, has not stolen a base and has an alarming K-rate.
El Paso Chihuahuas (12-15 record with a 4-2 record in their last series, 3rd in Pacific Coast League East)
Outfielder Samad Taylor leads the team with a .325 average; infielder Pablo Reyes has a .438 OBP while outfielder Jase Bowen is tops in both slug .625 and OPS .968 and has seven homers. Infielder Jose Miranda leads with 18 RBI. The depth of the talent sitting in Triple-A is reassuring if reinforcements are needed for the Friars. The only real concern is that Bowen has 28 strikeouts in his 96 at-bats, a 29% K-rate.
RHP Evan Fitterer has started four games out of the six games he has appeared in and has a 1.23 ERA in the 14.2 innings pitched. Reliever Garrett Hawkins, who is on the 40-man roster, has a 2.08 ERA in 8.2 innings pitched. Griffin Canning has had four appearances (fifth should be in the books on Tuesday) with a 5,40 ERA in 10 innings.
San Antonio Missions (5-16 record that makes them last in Texas League South)
The Double-A Missions are having a difficult time so far this season but there is a big bright spot for Padres fans. Catcher Ethan Salas is heating up of late and is leading the team in OPS at .859 and slug at.481 and that includes two homers.
1B/DH Leandro Cedeno has only played in 10 games but is hitting .333 with a .415 OBP. Infielder Carson Tucker continues to hit, batting .317 in 13 games and has four stolen bases without being caught. He has an .806 OPS and .391 OBP.
Starter Miguel Mendez is on the 40-man roster and has started four games with a 3.68 ERA in 14.2 innings but had a rough start his last time out. Reliever Andrew Moore has a 1.29 ERA in five games and 7.2 innings and Eric Yost, who has made one start in his four games, has a 1.32 ERA in 17.2 innings.
Fort Wayne TinCaps (7-14 record, last in Midwest League East)
Outfielder Jake Cunningham, 23, who signed with the Padres as a minor league free agent in February, has had a good start for his new organization and their High-A affiliate. He leads the team with a .321 average, a .607 slug and a .965 OPS. He has hit four homers and has seven RBI. Outfielder Kasen Wells has a team leading .384 OBP with 14 walks and a .266 average. He also leads the team with three stolen bases. Outfielder Alex McCoy is continuing to show he can be an all-around player with a .324 average, four home runs and 12 RBI.
Starter Carson Montgomery has three starts and a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings. Starter Andrew Parra has a 3.12 ERA in four games with 17.1 innings pitched. LHP Kash Mayfield has four starts and a 1.65 ERA in 16 innings pitched with 19 strikeouts and could be pushing the organization into an early promotion.
Reliever Clay Edmondson has a 1.04 ERA in 8.2 innings pitched and two saves.
Both offense and pitching has struggled so far this season for the TinCaps with the above exceptions noted.
Lake Elsinore Storm (12-9 record, swept the Visalia Rawhides 6-0, 1st, in a tie, in California League South)
The Low-A Storm got off to a slow start but several players are surging to push them into their winning ways. Infielder Bradley Frye is hitting .419 with a .621 slug and a 1.083 OPS with 17 RBI. Outfielder Connor Westenburg, the other undrafted free agent with Frye, is hitting .371 with a .935 OPS and has 13 RBI and 13 stolen bases.
Outfielder Ryan Wideman, the Padres No. 9 prospect, will shoot up the prospect rankings if he keeps this up. Wideman is hitting .299/.404/.529 for a .933 OPS. He has seven doubles, two triples, three home runs and 20 RBI with 17 stolen bases in 21 attempts. He also has 11 walks to 18 strikeouts while playing an excellent center field. Coming into the season, the concern was his hitting mechanics and whether he could adapt to higher velocity and spin. He chased out of the zone and there were questions about his ability to be selective. So far, he has altered his mechanics and seems to be adjusting well. He has plus-plus speed and a good arm with good defensive range.
Catcher Victor Duarte leads the team with a .490 OBP, collecting a team high 13 walks. He can also play first base and is in his fourth season with Lake Elsinore but has never played more than 54 games in a season.
Unfortunately, the Storm has lost outfielder Kale Fountain for the season with a shoulder injury requiring season ending surgery. He had a collision with an outfield wall.
Carlos Medina has pitched in six games and has started two games. He has 16 innings with a 2.25 ERA and 16 strikeouts. Winyer Chourio has a 2.25 ERA in four games/three starts over 12 innings pitched and 26 strikeouts. Bryan Balzer has 19 strikeouts over 18 innings pitched and four games started. One difficult outing upped his ERA to 4.50.
Reliever Javier Chacon has a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings with 21 strikeouts. Ethan Long has a 1.35 ERA in six games and 6.2 innings with three saves. Nick Falter has a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 innings in seven appearances with 14 strikeouts.
Jeremiah Estrada made one rehab appearance with Lake Elsinore, pitching one inning with a strikeout. The most encouraging sign was that his pitches were back up to his normal velocity and he allowed no hits. He should resume his rehab with El Paso.
New Padre Lucas Giolito made his first start and went 2.2 innings but was removed after a comebacker hit his pitching hand. He allowed two runs and two hits with three walks and reached 63 pitches. He must be added to the Padres roster by May 16.
Injuries
Miguel Mendez was placed on the IL with a neck strain after his last start. It is not likely to be a long stint. Luis Gutierrez was placed on the 60-day IL with a lat strain. Omar Cruz was sent to San Antonio to fill in for the injured pitchers.
Qrey Lott, an undrafted free agent sign, was added to Lake Elsinore to replace Fountain.
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - APRIL 28: Josh Jung #6 of the Texas Rangers hits a runs scoring single against the New York Yankees during the ninth inning at Globe Life Field on April 28, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Texas Rangers are 31 games into the 2026 season, and having closed the book on the month of April,* I think it is a worthwhile time to take a look at how the Rangers hitters have fared so far.
* Idiomatically, when we discuss the month of April in regards to the MLB regular season, we also include the few days when games are played in March. Similarly, when we talk about September, we also mean any regular season games in October. Baseball language is weird sometimes.
Big picture-wise, there is once again a fair-sized split in our Fangraphs measures the team’s offense and how Baseball Reference does. Fangraphs has the Rangers, as a team, with a wRC+ of 95, which is tied for 21st in the majors. B-R has the Rangers’ team OPS+ at 105, which is 9th in the majors.* If you average the two out you’d end up at 100, which is, by definition, league average. So you can say that the Rangers’ offense has been above average, average, or below average so far this season, depending on how you want to measure things.
* As a reminder, the split between FG and B-R is mainly due to the difference in park factors they apply to the Shed. B-R’s park factors have the Shed has extremely pitcher-friendly for its 2026 calculations, while FG has the Shed as more neutral.
One thing to also keep in mind is that the Rangers have played a very difficult schedule in the early going. So far in 2026, the Rangers have, per Power Rankings Guru, played the most difficult schedule on MLB.* ESPN has the Rangers playing the third-toughest schedule so far this season. 25 of the team’s 31 games have come against teams with a 110 ERA+ this season or better, with the other six coming against Baltimore (101 ERA+) and the Phillies (91 ERA+).
* The flip side of the difficult early schedule is that they show the Rangers as having the second-easiest schedule the rest of the way.
Below is a chart with each player’s xwOBA, wOBA, and the difference between the two numbers. All data is from Statcast.
That is…not really surprising, for the most part? Brandon Nimmo and Josh Jung are raking. Jung appears to benefitting from a little bit of good fortune, though his xwOBA is still barely behind Nimmo for second on the team among those with significant playing time.
Corey Seager is not off to a great start, even considering his xwOBA is 20 points higher than his wOBA. His biggest issue right now is that his K rate has spiked — he’s striking out over 25% of the time, compared to an 18.1% career K rate. Evan Carter’s expected numbers are also about 20 points higher than his actual wOBA.
What really jumps out to me here is the dichotomy between Josh Smith and Ezequiel Duran. Smith has gotten off to an awful start to the season, while Duran has been putting up great numbers — Duran’s wOBA is almost 100 points higher than Smith’s so far this season.
In terms of xwOBA, however, Smith has actually out-performed Duran by 11 points. Smith’s wOBA is almost 50 points below his xwOBA, while Duran’s xwOBA trails his wOBA by almost 60 points.
Looking a little closer at their numbers, Duran is striking out more often than Smith (20% to 18.4%), while Smith has a 13.3% walk rate compared to Duran’s 9.2% walk rate. Fangraphs has their line drive rates as being almost identical, and has Smith with a hard hit rate higher than Duran.
Despite that, Duran has a .356 BABIP and .136 ISO, compared to a .242 BABIP and .024 ISO for Smith.
There’s been talk about Duran possibly eating into some of Smith’s playing time at second base, due to Duran’s hot start and Smith’s early struggles. When we drill down on their underlying metrics, though, Duran’s case for more playing time weakens.
The bottom two Rangers in terms of both wOBA and xwOBA are Andrew McCutchen and Sam Haggerty, two guys who are here as short-side platoon bats. This certainly helps explain why the Rangers have had so many issues against lefthanded starting pitchers this year.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - MARCH 21, 2026: Eric Hartman #64 of the Atlanta Braves hits a single during the second inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 21, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
We are closing in on the end of the first full month of the season in the minor leagues, meaning some of the Atlanta Braves prospects have seen their stock change a bit since the end of spring training. This is a good chance to take a look at who has seen a change in their stock in April. You will notice that Didier Fuentes is not on this list, which is because I don’t think he has done anything to change his stock significantly either way since his outstanding spring training.
I did not include undrafted prep infielder Yamvier Carrero, due to playing just eight games so far in Augusta, but he is going to be a player to watch going into May. Dalton McIntyre is also a guy to note, after he struggled last year as well as in five games with Rome this year, but he has done very well in his first 10 games with Augusta and could be a guy to follow in May.
Stock Up
Ethan Bagwell, SP – Ethan Bagwell might be in Augusta for the third straight year, but coming into his second full professional season he had only made 11 starts there combined – 10 coming last year. Bagwell came into the year needing more innings after posting a 2.88 ERA, 0.98 WHP, and a 5.4 K/9 over exactly 50 innings here last year. So far so good, as he has already gone nearly half of last season’s innings total (22 IP) with a 3.27 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Just as importantly he has been missing bats at a much higher rate, seeing last year’s 5.4 K/9 turn into a much nicer looking 8.6 this season – this is the second consecutive year where this has happened in Augusta, as Rayven Antonio made a similar jump last year with this coaching staff. Bagwell, who will only be age-20 all season, is looking like a more complete pitcher this year and a candidate to get bumped up to Rome at some point in the fairly near future.
Logan Braunschweig, OF – A ninth round senior sign out of UAB last year, Braunschweig has been consistently productive for Rome to open this year. He is hitting .300/.432/.417 with a homer and four doubles in 75 plate appearances, with 14 walks to 16 strikeouts. He’s an older player (already age-23) without a lot of power, but he makes great contact and has been regularly hitting the ball hard. He will need to keep proving himself as he moves up the ladder, but he could be playing himself into being a candidate for a future fourth outfielder type of prospect.
Conor Essenburg, OF – Although he has only played in eight games due to an injury that presently has him out, the Braves overslot fifth round pick from last year has looked great in the action he has seen. Essenburg has hit .207/.395/.414 with a double, triple, and homer in 38 plate appearances, to go with nine walks and 17 strikeouts. Beyond just the results, he had been taking good at bats and hitting the ball hard. That’s all you can ask for considering he is a kid out of high school making his professional debut, let alone that this is his first time focusing on just hitting after being a two-way star in high school. While the lack of games played will temper some of the excitement, it is still enough for a slight up arrow after the first month of play.
John Gil, SS – Gil finished last year with Augusta and a short stint in Columbus with a bit of a power spike, but it was a small sample size. We know he looked good there again this spring, and starred in the Spring Breakout Game, but he has continued his success in April. To date he is slashing .291/.388/.468 with three homers and a total of eight extra base hits. Gil is doing his part to prove the power gains that we saw over a short window last year are here to stay, and combined with his speed and on base ability, he is positioning himself to move up our next list of Braves prospects.
Luis Guanipa, OF – While Guanipa is starting out in Augusta for the third consecutive season, that’s mostly because injuries have ruined his last two years. He has been red hot to open the year, slashing .314/.351/.523 with four doubles, a triple, and four homers to go with a perfect 16 for 16 in stolen bases and five walks to 10 strikeouts in 97 plate appearances. Most importantly is the four homers in 21 games, which come after hitting just three homers in 87 combined games over the last two seasons – and matching his total in 46 games played in the DSL back in 2023. If the power spike can continue going forward, Guanipa could find himself moving significantly up the Top 30 list at midseason, as the lack of power in the last two seasons was as much of an issue with him dropping as his lack of health and production.
Eric Hartman, OF – A 20th round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, Hartman spent pretty much all of last year in full season ball – though did miss a little time injured, and was able to slash .248/.344/.374 with five homers and 26 extra base hits in 83 games. He got promoted to High-A to open this year, and has been on a month long tear, slashing .299/.378/.644 with eight homers and 13 extra base hits through 22 games played. Hartman not only has seen a spike in his power, but with a full year of pro coaching under his belt just looks more comfortable at the plate, and the results are showing that. Hartman, who is still just age-19 until mid-June, might end up forcing his way to Double-A before his 20th birthday if he can keep hitting like this.
Jim Jarvis, INF – Following a strong showing in spring training, Jim Jarvis has been a machine for the Gwinnett offense, slashing .324/.444/.477 with five doubles and four homers through 29 games. Add in nearly as many walks (22) as strikeouts (24) and the fact that he’s 14 out of 16 in stolen base attempts, and he’s just been filling up boxscores. This was a guy with a .652 OPS in Double-A with the Tigers before coming over for Rafael Montero at the deadline last year as a bit of an afterthought. Fast forward to not even a year later, and he’s now going to get a shot to earn a shot at the big leagues any time a spot opens considering his production and versatility.
David McCabe, 1B – McCabe seemed to be on the right track after the 2023 season, before Tommy John surgery essentially robbed him of his 2024 season. That meant he needed a bit of a bounce back last year, and he got it in Columbus, slashing .286/.379/.434 with 10 homers in 105 games – though that comes with a bit of an asterisk, as the power still wasn’t what you would like for a first base/DH. Fast forward to this season, and while he is back in Columbus, the power has started to emerge. He is slashing .273/.385/.610 with eight homers through his first 20 games played. It is important to remember that since he is already 26-years-old, a promotion back to Triple-A could be in the cards fairly soon for him. If McCabe can continue to bring the power to go with his quality on base ability, he could still end up as a potential future Braves roster option.
Nick Montgomery, C – An overslot fifth round pick out of high school in 2024, Montgomery was an exciting power hitting catcher that many had high hopes for last year. Unfortunately last year was abysmal, as he spent the entire year in Augusta and slashed .170/.272/.252 with five homers and 42 walks to 119 strikeouts in 356 plate appearances. He has rebounded in a big way so far, slashing .268/.415/.537 with three homers and 11 walks to 13 strikeouts in his first 53 plate appearances. With how poorly last year went, it would have been easy for Montgomery to lose all of his confidence – but he put in the work and seems to be turning things around. He dropped out of the Preseason Top 30 Braves prospects, but if he keeps this up he will comfortably find his name on the midseason list.
Rolddy Munoz, RP – While it might feel like Munoz or his brother Roddery have been in the Braves system forever, he is still just 26-years-old and in the midst of a breakout in Gwinnett. Rolddy has appeared in nine games, going 11.1 innings, and pitching to a 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9. His dominance has also helped to limit base hits, as he has allowed only four all season. Munoz did pitch two innings in a game for the Braves this year as well, though those results were a bit more mixed. Munoz might be establishing himself as one of the first options should the Braves need to add a reliever.
JR Ritchie, SP – The now 22-year-old has finally been promoted to the big leagues and held his own in a pair of starts there. He was dominant in five starts with Gwinnett, posting a 0.99 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 9.2 K/9 with just a 4.9 H/9 across 27.1 innings there. In his starts against the Nats and Tigers he has pitched to a 2.92 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 10 hits, six walks, and 11 strikeouts over 12.1 innings of work. Though he has been a bit prone to the home run, allowing two in his big league debut, and one more in his next outing, Ritchie is already proving himself as a competent big league pitcher as a rookie. The only real question for him is how he will be able to handle left handed hitters, who are slashing .294/.385/.588 with all three homers, while he has held righties to a slash of .000/.083/.000 – though only had 12 plate appearances against them.
Tate Southisene, INF – Last year’s first rounder has been excellent to open his first full professional season. He is presently hitting .271/.442/.494 with three doubles, two triples, four homers, 19 steals, and 20 walks to 27 strikeouts in 113 plate appearances. Southisene is doing everything, and has made great strides from the .219/.242/.297 slash line he put up in 15 games here last year. He is performing like a guy who could earn his way up to Rome at some point this year.
Dixon Williams, OF/INF – When I made this list initially, I wasn’t going to include Williams – just due to the fact that injury has limited him to only nine games so far. However with three hits, including a homer, in the final two days of the month, plus a recent game in center field, Williams earned a spot. He’s slashing .250/.368/.531 with three homers, and with the power and versatility on display, he is making himself someone to watch in this Braves system.
Stock Down:
Nacho Alvarez, INF – Coming into the year Alvarez had a pretty consistent track record. He may have struggled to hit in the big leagues, but he had hit at every stop in his minor league career – until this past month. To date he is hitting just .224/.299/.294, and his only extra base hits are six doubles. This is a guy who has never had an OBP lower than .381 at any stop in his minor league career, who is almost 100 full points below the lowest mark of his career to go with the fact he hasn’t been hitting for power. It might be reaching the point where if the Braves needed to bring someone up, Jim Jarvis may get the call over Nacho.
Landon Beidelschies, SP – The Braves sixth round pick out of Arkansas last year, Beidelschies has had a tougher year adjusting to Low-A competition than you’d expect out of a guy coming from the SEC. He has pitched to a 10.22 ERA, 2.43 WHIP, and 12.4 K/9 in 12.1 innings of work. Add to that the fact his stuff hasn’t been looking like what the Braves were hoping for when they invested in him during last year’s draft, and there is definitely cause for concern. There is still time, considering he is still just 22 and in his first year of professional baseball, but it’s a stock down for the first month.
Lucas Braun, SP – Lucas Braun has made a total of five starts, with four coming in Gwinnett and one with Columbus, totaling 24.2 innings. His 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are a bit inflated by one tough start with Columbus, but they aren’t awful numbers either way. The reason he is finding himself here is the fact he simply isn’t missing enough bats this season, particularly against Triple-A hitters. His K/9 is 6.2, but drops to just 5.9 in his four Gwinnett starts. Although this is a small sample size, it is in line with the 5.2 rate he posted in 19 innings across three starts for the Stripers last year, giving him a combined 5.5 K/9 in 39 Triple-A innings. For a pitcher who is going to need to survive on his pitchability more than his raw stuff, his strikeouts were never going to be huge at the big league level – but that is still a massive drop off from his Double-A 9.4 rate.
Hayden Harris, RP – Last year was a great year for Harris, who posted a 0.52 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with 13.7 K/9 between Double-A and Triple-A. That was enough to get him to the big leagues to make his debut late last season, though it was a short run in Atlanta. He followed that up with five solid outings in spring training this year, though was sent down surprisingly early before the cut down to the Opening Day roster. Things haven’t gone as well for him so far this year, as he is pitching to a 6.75 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9 through his first 12 innings. Relievers are notoriously inconsistent from year to year, but for a guy who is already age-27, Harris needs to get the ship righted quickly considering he is on the 40-man roster.
Cade Kuehler, SP – A second round pick in 2023, Kuehler is coming off of missing last year injured. The results have not been pretty, as he has a 7.45 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, and 7.0 K/9 in 19.1 innings – and that’s after five and a third scoreless innings on the final day of the month. Making things even tougher for him is the fact that his stuff hasn’t been the same stuff we saw out of him in 2024 with Augusta – and that stuff was already below the stuff he had shown in college. It’s too soon to write off a guy in his first year back from surgery, but Kuehler is now firmly outside of the Braves Top 30 prospects based on the results and stuff.
Jhancarlos Lara, RP – This spring had to be disappointing for Lara, who many were projecting to help the Braves at some point this year. That would be because after spending the last few months in Gwinnett last season, he was sent back to Double-A to open his season. The disappointment has continued there, as he is currently pitching to a 13.50 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9 through 6.2 innings. Command really hasn’t been his friend this year, as he has already walked 16 hitters in those 6.2 innings. Lara’s stuff is still elite, but he isn’t presently looking like a guy who could help the Braves this season.
Alex Lodise, INF – The overall results haven’t been ugly for the Braves second round pick from last year, but it’s more about what I’m seeing out of him than his stat line. He’s slashing an acceptable .260/.336/.410 with three home runs, even if it’s only in Augusta – despite 25 games with Rome after signing last year. However the cause for concern is with the swing and miss and the way he will chase pitches out of the zone, leading to 31 strikeouts in 113 plate appearances. If Lodise is chasing and racking up a 27.4% strikeout rate in Low-A, it’s hard to see how he will be able to hit enough against better, and more advanced pitchers as he moves up the ladder. Luckily for hm the Augusta staff is excellent at working with hitters with this issue, so all hope isn’t lost – it’s just that he is presently seeming less likely to reach his ceiling than he was before.
Cody Miller, INF – An underslot third round pick by the Braves last year, Miller posted a .905 OPS in 10 games with Augusta and .779 OPS in 16 games with Rome after signing last year. He was headed back to Rome to open this year, and with his proven hit tool he was seen as a guy who could potentially move quickly. That has not happened, as he is currently slashing just .169/.253/.289 with two homers and four doubles. Miller is striking out a lot (32 in 118 PA) while only walking a limited amount (8), and he isn’t having great results when he puts the ball in play either. There is plenty of speed and there is some pop in the bat, but he is going to need more work with his hit tool than initially anticipated.
Owen Murphy, SP – Expectations were high for Murphy coming into the year, considering it was his second year back from Tommy John surgery. Getting his first taste of the upper minors in Double-A, he has pitched to a 6.10 ERA and 1.79 WHIP, though has 11.8 K/9 in 20.2 innings. His stat line however isn’t the only reason he’s here, as his stuff just hasn’t taken the step forward that many were hoping for this year. Murphy is still going to be 22-years-old all season, but it is concerning to see his stuff play this way at the Double-A level.
Jose Perdomo, SS – Perdomo isn’t on this list because of what he has done on the field, rather for the fact that this is the third straight year where injuries have ruined his season. He was limited to just eight games in the DSL back in 2024, got 54 injury effected games in the FCL last year, with a .544 OPS, and has just two games played for Augusta this year – and isn’t expected to return soon. It’s a disappointing blow for the former high profile international free agent who came into spring training in the best shape of his life. I guess if you are looking for a positive, it would be that he will spend all of next season at just age-20 – but it’s hard to bank on him being healthy with his track record.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 25: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Max Kranick #32 of the New York Mets in action against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field on May 25, 2025 in New York City. The Mets defeated the Dodgers 3-1. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We may have just written about how the Nats bullpen was turning things around, but Paul Toboni is always on the lookout for new arms. The Nats have reportedly signed Max Kranick to a deal that is pending a physical. Before going down with an injury, Kranick was a solid arm in the Mets bullpen, posting a 3.65 ERA in 37 innings.
Right-hander Max Kranick and the Washington Nationals are in agreement on a deal, pending physical, league sources tell The Athletic.
After making the Mets out of camp last season, Kranick was a valuable multi-inning reliever for them. He showed off a solid combination of good stuff and great control. Kranick only walked 5 batters in 37 innings last year. He also averaged 95.6 MPH on his fastball.
However, the 28 year old went down with an elbow injury in mid June. He ended up undergoing Flexor Tendon surgery in July of 2025. Kranick missed the remainder of the 2025 season, and went unsigned after being non-tendered by the Mets this offseason.
Kranick has been throwing for teams though. It seems like he was throwing the ball well enough to catch the Nats eye. We are still not totally sure when Kranick will be ready to pitch in big league games, but presumably it will be at some point this season.
Free agent right-hander Max Kranick is set to throw for teams on Friday afternoon at Ascent Athlete in Philadelphia, The Athletic has learned.
I would assume this is a minor league deal for Kranick where he will get a shot at the big leagues if he looks good in AAA. If Kranick can return to his pre-injury form, he would be a solid piece for this Nats bullpen.
Kranick has a really good fastball that generated whiffs over 25% of the time last season. He can also spin several breaking balls. Kranick used a slider, a curveball and a sweeper last year, with the slider being his go to breaking pitch.
While Kranick did not strike a ton of guys out last year, he can be pretty electric when he is on his game. The breaking ball is not as good, but the plus fastball does remind me a bit of Gus Varland. Both Varland and Kranick have good, but not elite velocity. However, their heaters play up due to the shape of the pitch.
I am excited to follow Kranick as he builds back up and gets ready for big league action. He is likely to have a ramp up period and then pitch in the minors for a while. However, I think Kranick will have a role to play in this bullpen in the second half of the season. He has some intriguing pitch traits and has the ability to go multiple innings.
Last season, Kranick threw 37 innings in 24 outings. He has the ability to be a one inning guy or a multi-inning arm. The Nats new regime clearly values guys like that, which is why they are picking up Kranick. This could end up being a solid little signing.
NORTH LITTLE ROCK, AR - APRIL 22: Will Bush #13 of the Corpus Christi Hooks bats during the game between the Corpus Christi Hooks and the Arkansas Travelers at Dickey-Stephens Park on Wednesday, April 22, 2026 in North Little Rock, Arkansas. (Photo by Braeden Botts/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below.
AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (16-14) lost 3-2 (BOX SCORE)
Sugar Land got on the board in the first inning on a Nelson solo HR. France got the start and went 4 innings allowing 3 runs. In the 6th inning, Nelson added another solo home run. The pen was solid tossing 4 scoreless innings but the offense was quiet the rest of the way as Sugar Land fell 3-2.
Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (11-13) won 7-6 (BOX SCORE)
Hicks got the start but struggled a bit allowing 5 runs early. The Hooks offense responded though scoring 4 runs in the first inning on a Sullivan solo home run, Whitaker 2 run double and Guillemette RBI single. In the 6th, Lytle gave the Hooks the lead with a 2 run double. Swanson relieved Hicks and allowed 1 run over 3.2 innings while striking out 4. The game went into the 9th tied and in the bottom of the inning, Bush walked it off with a solo HR as the Hooks won 7-6.
Asheville got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Schiavone solo HR and a run scoring on a steal of home. They picked up another run in the third inning on Brutcher RBI groundout. Hertzler got the start and pitched well striking out 6 over 5 scoreless innings. In the 6th, Asheville got a run on a Brutcher RBI double. Rodriguez relieved Hertzler and tossed 3 scoreless innings. The offense added some insurance in the 9th on a Thomas hit by pitch, wild pitch and Schiavone 3 run home run. Guedez allowed a few runs in the 9th but held on for the 9-3 win.
Jose Guedez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (10-14) lost 8-5 (BOX SCORE)
The Woodpeckers got on the board in the third inning on an Ochoa 2 run double. They picked up another run in the 5th inning on a wild pitch. Perez got the start and was pitching well but ran into some trouble in the 5th allowing 2 runs to score, and then another 2 runs after he was pulled, though only one was earned. Weber continued to struggle in relief allowing another 4 runs. The offense got 2 runs in the 8th on a balk and a groundout but that was it as the Woodpeckers fell 8-5.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 20, 2025: Hunter Stratton #65 of the Atlanta Braves prepares to pitch during the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on September 20, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
The Atlanta Braves lost the series finale yesterday against the Tigers, and although the offense was to blame for only scoring two runs, Joel Payamps was partly to blame as well as he came in and blew a one run lead in the eighth inning, and then to add insult to injury José Suarez came in the game and also gave up two runs.
The Braves’ bullpen has been one of the best in MLB in terms of ERA, but the writing was on the wall for both Payamps and Saurez who were the two odd men out that have struggled more than anyone else. After Payamps’ blown save yesterday, his ERA rose to 8.22 on the season. Suarez is not too far behind him with is ERA raising to 6.61.
It now becomes clear that yesterday was their last chance to prove that they earned another chance to stay on the roster after today the Braves announced that they will both be DFA’d and replaced with Hunter Stratton and Anthony Molina.
The #Braves today recalled RHP Hunter Stratton to Atlanta and selected RHP Anthony Molina to the major league roster. The club designated RHP Joel Payamps and LHP José Suarez for assignment.
We have not seen Anthony Molina yet this season for the Braves. He pitched 94.1 innings for the Rockies over the past two seasons and struggled to a 6.96 ERA, but if we know anything about the Braves’ front office, they love to take struggling relievers from the Rockies and turn their careers around. Molina has pitched 14.0 innings in at Gwinnett this year of 4.50 ERA ball but has had the best WHIP of any minors season of his career of 1.357. He also pitched 2.0 innings for Venezuela in the WBC.
Hunter Stratton was very good in his limited 16.1 innings so far at the MLB level for the Braves last season with a 2.20 ERA and 1.102 WHIP. It was honestly a bit puzzling when he was not part of the plan for the season to begin with.
With this move, the Braves have undoubtably improved their bullpen.
PEORIA, ARIZONA - MARCH 14: Petey Halpin #0 of the Cleveland Guardians takes the field during a Spring Training game against the San Diego Padres at Peoria Stadium on March 14, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Guardians demoted George Valera to Columbus yesterday, without announcing a corresponding move. However, Petey Halpin was not in the Clippers’ lineup in Columbus last night and Stuart Fairchild was, so internet sleuths suspect that Halpin will join the Guardians in Sacramento today to play the A’s.
Valera was given the chance to earn a starting spot in left field, but was lapped by Angel Martinez and Daniel Schneemann. He will get a chance to get his bearings in Triple-A while Angel and Schnee try to show their work is sustainable.
Speaking of Columbus, I am not sure how long the Guardians can leave Franco Aleman there. He has a 0.00 ERA, a 1.62 FIP and a 13.5/2.7 K/BB/9. Daniel Espino is striking out 10.38 per 9, but his 6 per 9 walk rate is at least justification for leaving him down there, as is his need to get used to a reliever’s schedule. I was told Codi Heuer is doing well, but his 6.55/4.09 K/BB/9 doesn’t inspire. He’s limiting hard contact, but I don’t see anything that makes me think Heuer is a “can’t lose” guy if the team needs a 40-man spot in the future.
Apr 30, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers (27) is congratulated by teammates after scoring against the Toronto Blue Jays in the eighth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images | Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
The Bombers enjoyed a day off on Thursday, before kicking off a set with the Orioles at home this weekend. With an early slate of games taking up much of Thursday, there wasn’t much positive movement for the American League’s top teams. Between a split double header, grand slams and a tough Jays loss to the Twins, let’s take a look at what happened on Thursday.
Minnesota Twins (13-19) 7, Toronto Blue Jays (14-17) 1
After two much-needed wins against the Red Sox, the Blue Jays dropped a dud against the Twins on Thursday. Despite an early lead and a strong start to the game for Toronto, the middling Minnesota squad took control of this game in the second half.
Kevin Gausman was on the hill for the Jays, who has had a terrific start to the 2026 season. He looked good to begin his outing, as the veteran righty fired three scoreless innings out of the gate, though it was matched by Bailey Ober for the Twins. Toronto broke out first with the bats, when Daulton Varsho belted his fourth homer of the season in the fourth inning, a solo shot to open the scoring.
The lead was short-lived, however, as Ryan Jeffers tagged Gausman with a two-run blast in the following half inning, which turned Minnesota’s deficit into a lead with one swing of the bat.
Two innings later, the Twins tacked on two more runs, fueled in part by Byron Buxton’s eighth home run of the season. In the eighth, they added some additional insurance thanks to RBIs from Josh Bell and Luke Keaschall against the Toronto ‘pen. With a six-run lead in tow, the Twins were able to cruise to victory in the series opener, as the Jays fall to fourth in the AL East, two games ahead of the Red Sox, who had the day off on Thursday.
Other Games
Detroit Tigers (16-16) 5, Atlanta Braves (22-10) 2: Despite a shaky start in the outing, Framber Valdez turned in a good start for the Tigers. Two early runs were the only marks on his day, as he finished striking out eight across his six solid innings of work. Detroit overcame a 2-0 deficit thanks in part to four runs in their final two innings, with doubles from Matt Vierling and Dillon Dingler leading the charge for the rally.
Baltimore Orioles (15-15) 10, Houston Astros (11-20) 3 (Game 1): The Orioles hosted the Astros for a back-to-back double header on Thursday, making up a rain out from Wednesday. In the first, The Orioles took command in the middle innings, and never trailed on their way to a win. A pair of grand slams usually does the trick, and the O’s got just that from Adley Rutschman in the fifth and Jeremiah Jackson in the seventh. Chris Bassitt also turned in a very good start, tossing 6.2 innings of one-run ball, striking out seven.
Houston Astros (12-20) 11, Baltimore Orioles (15-16) 5 (Game 2): The Astros flipped the script in the second game, jumping out to an early lead and putting up a double-digit run total of their own. After five runs in the first, Yordan Alvarez padded Houston’s lead in the second with his 12th home run of the season. Lance McCullers Jr. struck out nine in his six frames for the ‘Stros.
The Cubs just completed a 17-9 April and have won 12 of their last 15.
The Diamondbacks come to Wrigley having lost six of their last nine. The Cubs just finished taking two of three from the Padres, whose previous series was in Mexico City against… the Diamondbacks. That series was split. Arizona stopped off in Milwaukee before they headed to Wrigley for the weekend.
For more on the D-backs, here’s Jim McLennan, manager of our SB Nation D-backs site AZ Snakepit.
After being outscored in Milwaukee 28-9, the D-backs will hope for better in Chicago. Somehow, Arizona finished April better than .500, despite being outscored by 24 runs to date. This is mostly due to a severe blowout deficit: of seven games decided by more than five runs, the Diamondbacks have won only one. Their pitching has been very shaky: the D-backs came into Thursday ranked 27th for ERA, and the 13-1 loss in the series finale against the Brewers will not have helped that position. There have been bright spots. Eduardo Rodriguez finally looks like the pitcher signed to an $80 million contract in December 2023. Juan Morillo and Taylor Clarke have been effective out of the bullpen. But Merrill Kelly has been a shadow of his former self, and backup catcher James McCann is on pace for twenty-two appearances on the mound.
The offense has been solid generally, and that’s without major contributions from Ketel Marte (.682 OPS) and Geraldo Perdomo (.729), though the last of our “Big 3” from last year, Corbin Carroll, has been as effective as ever. Arizona has been getting production from unexpected sources instead. None more unexpected than Ildemaro Vargas. Now in his tenth season, he came into the year with a career OPS+ of just 78. But he ends April leading the majors in average at .378, and the NL in OPS (1.087). Sustainable? Almost certainly not. But it has been a nice story. His current 26-game hitting streak, dating back to last season, is the second longest in franchise history (Paul Goldschmidt reached 30 games). Elsewhere, rookie Jose Fernandez and veteran Nolan Arenado have also performed better than expected.
Before the start of the season, Arizona fans looked at the early schedule and thought, “If we can get through April at .500, that’ll be solid.” This is partly because the D-backs will be getting pitching help off the IL in the coming months, in the shapes of Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk. Though with all three coming off elbow surgery of various kinds, their effectiveness is to be determined. April is done, and at 16-14, the D-backs are above the intended mark. Though it certainly helped that the Mets and Phillies, part of that early schedule, have been nowhere near as good as expected. But it does feel like the current record is illusory, or at least, lucky. If the pitching doesn’t come round, there could be some harsh regression in store for the Diamondbacks, though the offense should prove capable of scoring runs as well.
Fun facts
The Cubs lost the first games of their first four homestands or road trips. They lost at home to the Nationals on Opening Day, 10-4, and to the Pirates on April 10, 2-0. They snapped the streak on April 17 with a 12-4 win over the Mets. … The Cubs’ next win at home over the Diamondbacks will be their 50th since the rivalry began in 1998. They have lost 45. At Arizona, the Cubs are just 41-55, so they trail overall, 100-90. … Last year, the Cubs won two of the three meetings at Wrigley Field, for their first series win at home vs. the Snakes since 2021. They had lost three of four in 2022 and 2023, then two of three in 2024. The Cubs’ last three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks was in 2015. This is the 10th series on the North Side since then.
Friday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Diamondbacks market territories)
Saturday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Sunday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Prediction
The Cubs are starting two left-handers in this series. It should be noted, then, that the D-backs are 6-0 vs. LH starters so far this year. Those lefties are: Trevor Rogers, Anthony Kay, Martin Perez, Jesús Luzardo, David Peterson and Tarik Skubal, who they beat 1-0. So I don’t know that there’s any predictive value there, just thought it was interesting.
Where was I? Oh, yes, a series prediction. Two of three.
Up next
The Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds in a four-game series at Wrigley Field beginning Monday evening.
Nico Hoerner (Photo by Griffin Quinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Cubs and the Diamondbacks are possibly rivals for a wild-card berth into the playoffs. On 27 April, FanGraphs projected them to win 86 and 82 games. This series could possibly decide which team reaches the playoffs.
The Cubs were recently playing hot, with a 10 game winning streak through 24 April. It ended with two losses to the Dodgers.
Top-level comparisons follow.
Offense. This season through 26 April, the Cubs averaged more runs scored per game (5.32 vs 4.89). Swing decisions contributed to that difference. Through 26 April, when each team swung at a pitch in the ‘waste zone’ (well outside the strike zone), they whiffed at the same rate (84%). The difference was the Cubs swung at only 5.4% of ‘waste zone’ pitches, while the Diamondbacks swung at 12.4% of ‘waste zone’ pitches (the highest swing rate in the Majors).
Defense. The Cubs were better in OAA (but tied in DRS) through 26 April (Outs above average, OAA +17 vs +5, Defensive Runs Saved, DRS +16 vs +16).
Bullpen. This season through 26 April, shutdown performances by the Diamondbacks bullpen were almost double the White Sox bullpen (36 vs 19).
Starting Pitcher Matchups. The matchups are even.
Cubs Player to Watch.
Nico Hoerner.
Defense. He won Gold Gloves in 2023 and 2025 for his play at second base. This season, his 3 OAA ranks 7th in the Majors. Ian Happ, playing left field, who has won Gold Gloves in the latest four seasons, said Nico Hoerner is the definition of a great baseball player.
Batting. Each season starting 2020, his OPS+ was over 100. This season’s 170 is a career best. He had 20 RBIs in the first 20 games. Extrapolating, will he have 160 RBIs by the end of the season? He rarely whiffs (10.1% through 18 April). He has a high squared-up rate (32.6% through 18 April).
Overall Value. In games through 18 April, his 1.7 bWAR led the Majors.
He likes pizza. In a recent interview, he replied 10 to 12, when asked the most slices of pizza he can eat in one sitting.
Pitching Matchups.
Friday, 11:20 AM MST.
Zac Gallen. On 25 April, a comeback hit his shoulder. On 26 Nick Piecoro wrote that Torey Lovullo said Gallen was “doing better today.” It is very likely he will pitch this game, which is his next regular start. This season he started 6 games with an ERA of 3.14.
Colin Rea. On 25 April, in the game that broke the Cubs’ 10-game winning streak, he allowed 6 earned runs in 3.1 innings against the Dodgers. Does he have the mental strength to bounce back?
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Diamondbacks.
Saturday, 11:20 AM MST.
Ryne Nelson. He has allowed 14 earned runs in his last 5.1 innings pitched (2 games). I’m confident he will bounce back. Prior to those games, his ERA was 3.54.
Shota Imanaga. His season ERA is 3.15.
This matchup of starting pitchers is advantage Cubs.
Sunday, 11:20 AM MST.
Merrill Kelly. In his first two starts, his ERA was 9.31. The root cause was his start against the White Sox. Inn game three, he struggled with his command. He walked 5 batters in the first five innings. In the fourth inning, a two-run single scored two walked batters. It happened when his fastball missed the target, instead crossing the center of the plate. If he again struggles, he may not complete 5 innings.
Matthew Boyd. This season, his ERA is 7.00. In three of his four starts, he did not complete 5 innings. That’s encouraging because the Diamondbacks bullpen has twice as many shutdowns.
COVERS INTEL: Mitch 
