Momentum: Mariners at White Sox Series Preview

SAN DIEGO, CA - MAY 01: Munetaka Murakami #5 of the Chicago White Sox celebrates in the dugout during the game between the Chicago White Sox and the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Friday, May 1, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Emma Steinberg/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Mariners finally showed some life against a really tough opponent, handing the Braves their first series loss of the season earlier this week. All three games were incredibly close affairs as you would expect in a series between two playoff contenders. Seattle now embarks on a seven-game road trip and the beginning of a stretch of 13 straight games without an off day. Despite possessing a record two games below .500, the M’s are still in fine position in the standings because it seems like no other team in the American League actually wants to win — there are just four teams with winning records currently and the Mariners are in possession of a Wild Card berth with their 18-20 record.

GameTimeMariners StarterWhite Sox StarterMariners Win%White Sox Win%
Game 1Friday, May 8 | 4:40 pmRHP Emerson HancockRHP Sean Burke52.8%47.2%
Game 2Saturday, May 9 | 4:10 pmRHP Luis CastilloLHP Anthony Kay55.7%44.3%
Game 3Sunday, May 10 | 11:10 amRHP Logan GilbertRHP Davis Martin55.2%44.8%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
OverviewWhite SoxMarinersEdge
Batting (wRC+)96 (11th in AL)103 (3rd in AL)Mariners
Fielding (FRV)1 (6th)-12 (15th)White Sox
Starting Pitching (FIP-)99 (10th)96 (5th)Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)103 (9th)82 (2nd)Mariners

The White Sox have made some quick progress in their rebuild after losing more than 100 games in three straight seasons. It’s easy to improve after losing a record 121 games like they did in 2024, but the forward progress this year has been shocking. The team was the surprising landing spot for Munetaka Murakami this offseason and their crop of young prospects have already started to make big impacts in the majors. After a bit of a slow start to the season, Chicago is 11-7 over its last 18 games. Even though they’re in a pretty favorable spot in the standings — third in the AL Central and just half a game out of a Wild Card spot — I don’t think this team is suddenly a contender this year, but they’re definitely a lot closer to breaking out of their rebuilding cycle than expected.

PlayerPositionBatsPAK%BB%ISOwRC+
Sam AntonacciLFL749.5%8.1%0.148126
Munetaka Murakami1BL16034.4%17.5%0.328153
Miguel Vargas3BR15917.0%16.4%0.208119
Colson MontgomerySSL15428.6%9.7%0.258127
Chase Meidroth2BR15324.2%10.5%0.098108
Andrew BenintendiDHL12133.1%5.8%0.13574
Jarred Kelenic (MiLB)RFL10428.8%18.3%0.26298
Tristan PetersCFL8924.7%6.7%0.03878
Drew Romo (MiLB)CS6826.5%10.3%0.263137

I think there are a bunch of teams who really regret missing out on Murakami this offseason now that they’ve seen what he can do against MLB pitching. Yes, the contact issues are still present — he’s running 34.4% strikeout rate and a 58.9% contact rate — but his walk rate has been surprisingly robust and the power is obviously big enough to play. He’s currently second in the majors with 14 home runs. He’s not the only power hitter in the middle of this lineup either. Colson Montgomery made a splash last summer, blasting 21 home runs in just 71 games after being called up in July. He’s hit another nine to start this year and is playing solid defense at shortstop to boot. Miguel Vargas is the other youngster showing some real progress this season. Pushed off the fringe of the Dodgers roster a few years ago, he’s been able to establish himself with regular playing time in Chicago. He’s got an excellent approach at the plate and hits the ball hard enough to run an above average batting line at third base.

Jarred Kelenic deserves a mention as well. He was recalled from Triple-A last week after Everson Pereira was sidelined with an injury. Kelenic couldn’t establish himself in the two years he spent in Atlanta and signed a minor league deal with the White Sox this offseason. Still just 26 years old, his issues are still the same as ever: trouble making consistent contact.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Sean Burke39.220.5%5.1%6.8%42.5%2.723.19
Emerson Hancock41.228.9%3.8%17.5%46.7%2.593.69
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam28.8%42.9%94.0112971080.289
Sinker24.2%9.1%94.291551960.292
Cutter2.7%6.9%89.986
Changeup0.4%6.9%85.8
Curveball16.7%28.8%79.387581120.306
Slider27.3%5.3%86.585

Sean Burke showed some flashes of promise in his first full season in the big leagues last year. His 4.22 ERA was perfectly acceptable for a rebuilding Chicago club, though his 4.92 FIP wasn’t nearly as encouraging. Still, there was a stretch in May and June where he ran a 3.33 ERA and a 4.06 FIP across nine starts. Things are looking up for Burke this year. He’s dramatically improved his command and cut his walk rate by more than half, down to 5.1%. He doesn’t strike out that many guys, but simply reducing the amount of traffic on the bases has helped him dramatically improve his topline results.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Anthony Kay3014.0%10.5%15.4%39.2%5.706.41
Luis Castillo34.119.4%8.1%8.7%33.0%6.294.25
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam38.2%35.2%95.89157720.491
Sinker13.4%44.0%95.1114
Cutter24.1%18.7%90.999911580.421
Changeup22.3%0.0%85.7109
Slider2.0%2.2%84.6109
Sweeper20.3%45.1%82.810978970.323

After a few years of riding the Triple-A shuttle for the Blue Jays, Anthony Kay signed a two-year deal with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of NBP. He excelled in Japan and returned to the US this offseason, signing a two-year deal with Chicago. He developed a sinker and a sweeper overseas, giving him a much deeper repertoire to keep batters off balance. Unfortunately, that revamped arsenal hasn’t helped him find much success against batters this year. The stuff models really like his sinker and a few of his secondary pitches, but he’s throwing a thoroughly mediocre four-seam fastball 30% of the time right now. That pitch is getting absolutely crushed. He simply isn’t working deep enough into counts to properly utilize his secondary pitches, his strike out rate has cratered to just 14.0%, and his ERA and FIP are both approaching six.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Davis Martin4425.4%4.7%4.9%38.6%1.642.46
Logan Gilbert4423.2%5.4%15.4%36.7%4.304.43
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam21.8%28.9%94.0961111020.356
Sinker20.2%11.5%92.886
Cutter10.3%19.5%89.689105820.468
Changeup10.7%21.4%90.18645850.356
Curveball5.8%14.3%82.191
Slider31.3%4.4%87.195

Davis Martin has quietly led the White Sox rotation with a 1.64 ERA and 2.46 FIP in seven starts this year. He’s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 2.17 to 5.38 this year, adding more than eight points to his strikeout rate while simultaneously cutting his walk rate to 4.7%. He’s added a cutter to his pitch mix this year, giving him six weapons to use against opposing batters. None of them stand out individually in the stuff models, but his slider looks like one of the nastiest pitches in baseball right now. The whiff rate on that breaking ball is 59.6%, the second highest whiff rate on a slider in baseball. Opposing batters are running a sub-.200 wOBA against his three secondary pitches, and a plus-.300 wOBA against his three fastball variations. The problem is that batters have been struggling to identify his pitches — his called strike rate is up 3.5 points this year — so even if they’re making good contact against his fastballs, they’re just as likely to whiff or mishit one of his secondary offerings.


The Big Picture:

TeamW-LW%Games BehindRun DiffRecent Form
Athletics19-180.514-10L-W-L-L-W
Mariners18-200.4741.5+4L-L-W-L-W
Rangers17-200.4592.0-6L-L-L-W-L
Astros15-230.3954.5-37W-W-L-W-L
Angels15-230.3954.5-14W-L-L-W-W

The Athletics managed to avoid a sweep in Philadelphia with a 12-1 blowout win yesterday. They head to Baltimore this weekend looking to maintain their grip on the AL West lead. The Rangers lost their series in New York against the Yankees and will return home to face the red-hot Cubs this weekend. The blows just keep coming for the Astros: Carlos Correa has been sidelined for the season with an ankle injury suffered on Tuesday. Houston wound up losing its series against the Dodgers and will head to Cincinnati this weekend.

Opposition research: Mickey Moniak

Apr 23, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies left fielder Mickey Moniak (22) hits a solo home run in the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

What if before the season, I told you that a former Phillie would be leading the National League in OPS come the second week of May? You’d probably assume that Nick Castellanos was having some sort of revenge season out in San Diego, right?

Well, don’t worry. Nicky is batting .183 and playing his usual bad brand of defense out West. However, Mickey Moniak is absolutely crushing it in Colorado.

Most of you probably know the story: The Phillies had the top pick of the 2016 draft, and there were no obvious standout prospects to take. So, they took a chance on a high school outfielder, with hopes that he could develop major league power and defense. He didn’t amaze anyone in the minors, but slowly progressed through the system, and made his major league debut in 2020.

He struggled in the minors but looked poised to start the 2022 season as the Phillies’ centerfielder before suffering an injury on the last day of Spring Training. He couldn’t regain his hitting form after returning from the injury and the Phillies shipped him to the Angels in exchange for Noah Syndergaard.

He underwhelmed in Los Angeles and didn’t make the team out of Spring Training in 2025. The Rockies, who were barely even attempting to field a major league team decided to take a chance on him.

In 2025, despite being regarded as one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball, his bat showed some life in the thin Colorado air, and he hit 24 home runs. He’s shown even more life this season, with a .318/.367/.700 slash line.

Obviously, he’s unlikely to continue hitting at this pace, and he’s definitely benefitting from playing in Colorado, since his road OPS is almost .500 points lower than it is at Coors Field. But for now, it’s a nice story to see him finally experience success after being such a disappointment.

The funny thing is: If you told Phillies’ management back in 2016 that Moniak might be in Philadelphia for the 2026 All-Star Game, they’d probably be thrilled.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: The 2012 Phillies’ first visit to Marlins Park ended with them getting swept. The three losing pitchers were Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton. Nobody was able to name two of the three.

This week’s question: On August 23, 1993, the Rockies earned their second ever win in Philadelphia, behind a home run by what former Phillie?

Non-Phillies thought

It didn’t take long for the optimism around the Sixers and Flyers to fade. The Flyers look completely outmatched by the Carolina Hurricane, and the Sixers have spent the first two games of their series against the Knicks looking like they used up all their energy against the Celtics. (To be fair, a 48-hour turnaround after an intense game seven is kind of tough.)

When the Sixers vs. Knicks series began, I had optimism that the Sixers’ home games wouldn’t be taken over by Knicks fans like they were in 2024. The fans were mostly checked out on that year’s team, while people seemed pumped about this year’s team after beating the Celtics. But falling into an 0-2 hole likely changed the math, and unfortunately, I expect there to be a very healthy contingent of Knicks fans in the building.

Additional thought about the series

A home series against the Rockies should allow the Phillies to continue their recent run of hot play. The key to the turnaround has been that the starting pitching – Andrew Painter aside – has met expectations lately.

The Rockies have a mediocre offense – 16th in runs scored overall, 21st in road games – so the Phillies’ starting trio of Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez should be able to turn in strong outings.

I’m less certain about the Phillies’ bullpen. Jhoan Duran looked shaky in his return from the IL, but the hope is that was just him getting readjusted. The bigger question is do they have a late inning lefthanded reliever they can depend on? With both Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks struggling mightily, who do they call upon if they have to face Moniak in the late innings? (There’s something I didn’t expect to be writing before the season.) Will Tim Mayza become their primary setup lefty? (Something else I didn’t expect to write.)

Someone needs to assert themselves, because I don’t want to spend the entire season holding my breath in the seventh and eighth innings.

Friday Bantering: Jays Notes

A blue jay gulps down a meal at Irondequoit Bay Park West in Irondequoit Thursday, May 7, 2026. | Shawn Dowd/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Happy Friday.

The Jays are back home for a series against the Angels. It almost can’t be worse than the last series. I think the team has let Tropicana Field get into their heads.

Maybe all the batters should move back in the batter’s box:

Petriello talks about it here.

There is talk about having more time to watch a pitch. I don’t know, a foot of extra time on a pitch 132 (+/-) feet per second is not all that much extra time. But I do think a change when things aren’t working is a good idea. It gets the mind thinking about something else. Perhaps moving up a foot would have don’t the same thing.

There was always going to be adjustments. I try not to judge a player in the first month or so of being in a new place. I think it takes a bit for the brain to realize that it is the same game they’ve always played.

There are always ones that like to be at the front of the box, to ‘get breaking balls before they break’ and ones that stand at the back to ‘give more time to see the ball’. I think whatever a player is comfortable doing is the right thing.


Addison Barger is going to be activated soon, I keep stalling so I can add whoever is set out, but I have a birthday party to go to (I have a tennis friend who has turned 90, he still plays, still runs, still hits the ball good. I tell him I want to be him when I grow up. He still mentally sharp, as well. We should all be so lucky).

It will be good to have Addison back. I don’t think he’s going to be the savior or anything like that but it is a step towards the roster we hoped to see this year.

As soon as I hit publish, they will make an announcement.


You think baseball players know the rules? It is possible he didn’t see the third baseman touch the bag before throwing home, but he seemed bewildered when the umpire was explaining it to him.

Yankees vs Brewers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's MLB Game

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The New York Yankees open a new series against the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday night with Max Fried on the mound against Jacob Misiorowski, one of the most electric young arms in the National League, and they're doing it in their eighth game in eight days.

This is a genuinely elite pitching matchup on both sides, and my handicap reflects that. 

Read all about it in my Brewers vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 8, 2026.

Who will win Yankees vs Brewers today: Yankees moneyline (-124)


Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski is elite, we know that, but we also know how reliant he is on the strikeout. Both his whiff rate and strikeout rate are basically as good as it gets, ranking in the 99th percentile of the sport. 

What's most intriguing about this matchup, though, is that this New York Yankees team isn't the one of old with an enormous strikeout rate. They enter this game with the third-lowest swing rate and fourth-lowest chase rate in the league.

That discipline forces Misiorowski to throw every pitch for strikes rather than trying to chase hitters out of the zone. He can do that, but against a lineup this patient, the margin for error shrinks considerably.

A pitcher reliant on swing-and-miss who can't manufacture chases has to be perfect in the zone, and that is a lot to ask over seven innings. Max Fried, on the other side, removes any concern about the lineup needing to score big. 

Covers COVERS INTEL:The Brewers' 52% groundball rate is the highest in baseball by a significant margin. The gap between them and the second-highest is as large as the gap between 2nd and 20th. 

Yankees vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-124)

Not much of a reason to go against the general consensus. 

I'm a believer that the Yankees will eventually grind the Miz down and score enough, but it's not like he won't have a strong performance. There are plenty of likely strikeout victims for him towards the middle to the bottom of the order, even if it is an offense that has become much more well-rounded. 

On the other side, Fried has hardly taken a step wrong this season, and I expect this to continue. His 94th percentile barrel rate helps him remain pretty fullproof against the crooked innings that can sink innings.

More importantly, though, a 52% groundball rate is less than ideal against a pitcher who has made his career out of inducing soft contact.

Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 14-12, +2.60 units
  • Over/Under bets: 16-11, +6.72 units

Yankees vs Brewers odds

  • Moneyline: Yankees -142 | Brewers +129
  • Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+127) | Brewers +1.5 (-147)
  • Over/Under: Over 7 (-103) | Under 7 (-117)

Yankees vs Brewers trend

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 45 games at home (+7.95 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Brewers.

How to watch Yankees vs Brewers and game info

LocationAmerican Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
DateFriday, May 8, 2026
First pitch7:40 p.m. ET
TVYES, Brewers.TV
Yankees starting pitcherMax Fried 
(4-1, 2.39 ERA)
Brewers starting pitcherJacob Misiorowski
(2-2, 2.84 ERA)

Yankees vs Brewers latest injuries

Yankees vs Brewers weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Red Sox vs. Rays prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for May 8

Tonight is Game 2 of the four-game series at Fenway Park between the Tampa Bay Rays (25-12) and the Boston Red Sox (16-22).

 
The Rays won their ninth game in their last ten last night with an 8-4 win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Junior Caminero and Chandler Simpson drove in a combined five runs to pace the attack and Hunter Bigge picked up his first win of the season in relief of Griffin Jax. The Sox did touch up Tampa for four runs. It was the first time since April 21 the Rays allowed more than three runs to an opponent. Boston scored their runs on six singles and a double. Jake Bennett allowed four runs over five innings to take the loss. The Sox have now lost three straight at home.

 
Tampa Bay will hand the ball today to Jesse Scholtens, who carries a 3-1 record and 3.18 ERA. Scholtens has allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts covering 7.1 innings, suggesting the 32-year-old hurler may be finding his way. Offensively, the Rays continue to shine with a .257 team batting average and consistent run production, led by Junior Caminero’s 10 home runs and Yandy Díaz’s consistent bat (.323 average).

Boston counters with Connelly Early, a left-hander who has shown flashes of promise but oddly enough has struggled at Fenway, entering tonight 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA at home. The Red Sox offense has not helped, hitting .237 as a team for the season.

 

Tonight, and the rest of the weekend is about Boston trying to get into the race in the American League East while the Rays look to keep pace with the Yankees at the top of that division.

Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game Details and How to Watch: Red Sox vs. Rays

  • Date: Friday, May 8, 2026
  • Time: 7:10PM EST
  • Site: Fenway Park
  • City: Boston, MA
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Rays.TV, NESN

 

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

 

The Latest Odds: Red Sox vs. Rays

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Boston Red Sox (-136), Tampa Bay Rays (+113)
  • Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+153), Rays +1.5 (-186)
  • Total: 8.5 runs

 

Probable Starting Pitchers: Red Sox vs. Rays

Pitching matchup for May 8:

  • Red Sox: Connelly Early
    Season Totals: 35.2 IP, 2-2, 3.79 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 31K, 17 BB
  • Rays: Jesse Scholtens
    Season Totals: 22.2 IP, 3-1, 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 17K, 6 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Red Sox vs. Rays

  • Yandy Diaz is 4-12 over his last games
  • Chandler Simpson has hit in 4 straight (6-14) and 8 of his last 9 games (11-34)
  • Connor Wong is not playing every day but has hit safely in each of his last 3 games
  • Jarren Duran is 1-12 over his last 3 games

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

 

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Red Sox vs. Rays

  • The Rays are 11-8 on the road this season
  • The Red Sox are 6-11 at home this season
  • The Rays are 24-13 on the Run Line this season
  • The Red Sox are 13-25 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 19 times in Boston games this season (19-18-1)
  • The OVER has cashed 17 times in Rays’ games this season (17-17-3)

 

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

 

Expert picks & predictions: Red Sox vs. Rays

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Red Sox and the Rays:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Rays on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Rays on the Run Line
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total OVER 8.5 runs

 

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In The Lab: Checking In On Jose Altuve

My favorite novel is “Fight Club” by  Chuck Palahniuk. There are tons of philosophical nuggets in the book and one of them is my moniker for everything analytics. “On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero.” In other words, given enough time and data, the underlying metrics and outward metrics will align. This is almost universally true and there are very few instances where it is not true. Those instances are usually the most interesting ones and the ones we can learn a lot from.

Enter Jose Altuve. Altuve is one of the more fascinating statistical studies in history. Obviously, there is a whole lot going on physically as well. However, in this edition we are focused just on the numbers. For his entire career, sources like Statcast would predict failure for Altuve. He doesn’t hit the ball as hard as others. He swings too often (in general), and the quality of his contact is not nearly as good as the elite hitters in baseball. Yet, he has spent most of his career as one of the more elite hitters in baseball. It just doesn’t make sense.

We will do the same thing with Altuve that we have done with Cam Smith and Yainer Diaz, but that is only the last two seasons. To better understand Altuve we need to look at the total career. The underlying numbers follow a particular pattern that fits, but they don’t fit the outward numbers we see from day to day. Let’s start with those.

Conventional Numbers

AVGOBPSLGBABIPwOBAwRC+
2025.265.329.442.283.331113
2026.241.327.376.290.31698

All players decay. We just don’t necessarily know the ways they will decay until we see it. Some struggle to remain healthy. Some see their speed and reflexes erode. Others lose their ability to field. Some of them suffer equally in all of those areas. Altuve has been fairly durable (knock on wood) but he is leaking oil in terms of offensive and defensive effectiveness.

Being a league average hitter at 36 is not necessarily a bad thing and there is time for him to have a hot streak and get back above water. In some ways, he is aging much like Craig Biggio aged. The fascinating thing is in the ways that it manifests itself. Biggio cheated on pitches and collected more doubles and homers when he guessed right. Yet, he was susceptible to that slider in the dirt late in his career. Altuve’s magical power was being able to put the bat on the ball in almost any instance.

Altuve had a career .330 BABIP until the last couple of seasons. You give him those 50 points back and suddenly he looks like the Altuve of old. The loss of BABIP “luck” can be explained through the nature of contact, but also diminished speed. At his peak, he was averaging 30 to 40 infield singles a season. Even if you cut those in half you severely hamper that average. He officially has eight so far on the season according to Baseball Savant, so that probably does not explain what is going on this season, but that will be a general certainty moving forward.

Statcast Numbers

xAVGxOBPxSLGxwOBA
2025.237.301.384.300
2026.247.333.362.310

Here comes the analyst’s nightmare. Do you go in the direction that 99 percent of the numbers will go or do you go with the way Altuve’s career has unfolded to this point? Based on the former, Altuve is pretty much producing what he is expected to produce. That has the look of a below average player overall, but somehow better than he was last season.

The flip side is that Altuve has outproduced his Statcast numbers in every full season of his career. So, you could be forgiven if you predicted better than what these numbers currently show. Notice the difference between his wOBA and xwOBA last season (.331 vs. .300). Does this mean he is destined for a .340 wOBA? I don’t think that kind of exact overperformance is likely, but it would be completely reasonable based on his career norms to project a .320 to .325 wOBA.

In most seasons that would be around the league average. Altuve’s magic power has been impressive productivity given his ability to remain in the lineup. So, the runs, hits, and other counting numbers will continue to mount for a player marching to Cooperstown. Of course, this is scratching the surface on Altuve. Let’s take a look at why Statcast has the numbers it has.

Quality of Contact

EVBarrelHardhit
202585.16.230.9
202685.36.734.6

Numbers will always say more than one thing at the same time. These numbers say that he has been better in 2026 than he was in 2025. They also say that he isn’t even an average hitter when looking at these numbers alone. Most players have a higher exit velocity. More than half have more barrels. They certainly hit the ball harder.

Numbers like Statcast work because they are based on assumptions. They assume that hitters are more or less the same. They can control the quality of the contact but cannot control the result. So, we assume a neutral result over time. It does not account for hitters that are able to find weaknesses in the defense. Pick your favorite hitter in history and most of them probably have the ability to hit against the defense and pick holes in the defense. Older fans will wax poetic about how the guys in the good ole days could do this, but as a general rule this was not true. The Tony Gwynns, Rod Carews, and Wade Boggs of the world are not normal. That is why they are in the Hall of Fame.

Jose Altuve is one of those guys. He might not quite be on their level, but he also dove into his power more than them. If he had continued on the slap hitter track he might have approached their numbers. This season has been a tale of two seasons. In the first couple of weeks he was a new hitter that took a ton of pitches. In the last three or four weeks he has returned to the Altuve of old. Let’s see where the growth can happen.

Areas of Growth

ChaseSwing%Contact%Zone%
202538.349.182.045.1
202631.146.577.645.4

If we take these numbers at face value and offer no context then we would say that Altuve is a much approved hitter in terms of his approach. The reality is that the Altuve with a 11+ percent walk rate hasn’t been here in a couple of weeks. Naturally, hope springs eternal and he could return to that. The reasonable hope is that the numbers would hold where they are and this would become a jumping off point.

Altuve’s superpower was his ability to put the bat on just about any pitch. Age has diminished that ability and he has become an ordinary mortal. He still has the ability to turn weak contact into hits where others cannot, but he is striking out more often and that is zapping his ability to hit for the higher averages that we were used to during his prime.

I feel reasonably certain that Altuve won’t hit .250 or worse this season once the dust has settled, but we are seeing steady erosion of his skills. These are the push and pull factors that every player must face at the end of their career. You add more numbers with each passing year, but you also diminish the overall quality. Altuve is now clearly in accumulation territory.

Do you remember the first Royals game you attended?

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - APRIL 05: Kansas City Royals fans pose for a photo during Baltimore Orioles batting practice at Kauffman Stadium on April 5, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Kyle Rivas/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Yesterday was School Day at the K, and hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Kansas City-area children were attending their first Royals game (and learning early on that being a Royals fan means seeing a lot of losing!) Despite the loss, it was a beautiful day in a beautiful ballpark, and they got to see a couple of dingers. Hopefully they’ll be back.

Most of you have probably been to Kauffman Stadium dozens, if not hundreds of times. But do you remember the first game you attended? I think my parents may have taken me to see the Royals when I was very young, but I do not remember. The first game I really remember was in April of 1988, when I had just become a rabid baseball fan. Because of the details I can recall, I have been able to pinpoint exactly when the game was. What I remember was:

  • The Baltimore Orioles were in the middle of an epic losing streak to begin the season, and the Royals were losing to them before coming back.
  • The Royals pinch-hit Thad Bosley, and people around me groaned. I learned what a “pinch-hitter” was that day. I also learned Royals fans can be very sarcastic and use salty language!
  • The Royals won in the bottom of the ninth on a walk-off hit. No fireworks back then though!

Using the power of the internet, I can find it was this game on April 23. Thanks for the game-winner, Kurt Stillwell! That Orioles team lost their first 21 games of the year. Woof!

Do you remember your first Royals games? What do you remember about the game? About seeing the stadium in person for the first time? Share your memories!

The Mets attempt to charm the Diamondbacks in Phoenix

Apr 3, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; The exterior of Chase Field prior to the Atlanta Braves versus Arizona Diamondbacks game. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

The New York Mets (14-23) travel to the desert to face the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-19) in a three-game series. While the Mets have won their last two series against bad teams, they still co-own the worst record in baseball and have a lot more work to do before convincing fans that they’re a serious baseball team.

All one needs to do is look at yesterday’s lineup and pitchers used to tell the story about why this team is in trouble. Austin Slater bating fourth? Andy Ibañez batting sixth? Craig Kimbrel coming into a tie game? Come on now.

Now part of this was clearly a result of injury and part of it was trying to maximize right-handedness against a left handed starter. But a lineup that included Slater, Ibañez, Tyrone Taylor, and Vidal Brujan is a March 7 spring training lineup, not a May 7 lineup. It is much easier said than done to improve a team in the first seven weeks of a season, but part of the frustration that Mets fans feel is due to the fact that nothing has really been done to address the team’s struggles.

This is not a call to fire Carlos Mendoza, but rather a plea to do anything to shake things up a little bit. Until that happens, there is very little that will convince fans that the organization is taking the situation as seriously as it should.

That said? If the Mets can keep winning series, all of this will be moot. And while beating the Angels and Rockies shouldn’t be lauded too loudly, it is better than the alternative. The Mets will face the Yankees in one week, and that is easily the best team in their upcoming schedule, so it is imperative that they hold their own against Arizona, the Tigers, the Nationals, and the Marlins in the next few weeks. There’s every chance that the Mets are near .500 by the end of the month if they can rattle off some wins, and then this is a very different conversation on June 8.

Fortunately for the Mets, the Diamondbacks have hit a skid after a hot-streak in early to mid-April. Losers of 11 of their last 17, the Snakes have won just one of their last six series. The Mets are also getting the D-backs’ two worst starters (but also their best) and the Mets are throwing their two best pitchers (and an unknown) in the series. This seems like a series that is very winnable for the Mets, and would be a nice way to wrap up this road trip.

Standing in their way are Corbin Carroll and Ildemaro Vargas, both of whom are off to hot starts, as well as the always dangerous Ketel Marte, who is off to a slow one. When the D-backs have won lately, it has been by large margins (9-0 against he Pirates, 12-7 over the Padres, 11-7 over the White Sox), but those days seem few and far between.

Nolan McLean vs Ryne Nelson, 9:40pm EDT on PIX11

McLean (2026): 39.1 IP, 51 K, 11 BB, 2 HR, 2.50 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 75 ERA-

The Mets have only won one of McLean’s seven starts thus far, but none of that is McLean’s fault. Two of those losses have come in extra-innings affairs, and in five of his seven starts, he’s given up two or fewer earned runs. McLean is more than just holding his own in the rotation, much like a young Jacob deGrom did with minimal run support.

Nelson(2026): 31.1 IP, 28 K, 15 BB, 6 HR, 6.61 ERA, 5.50 FIP, 159 ERA-

Nelson had an all-time bad start against the Blue Jays on April 19th, lasting just one-third of an inning but giving up a staggering eight earns runs on eight hits. His next start went longer, but yielded six earned runs. He settled down agains the Cubs last week, but he has had a rough go as of late.

Clay Holmes vs Merrill Kelly, 7:15pm EDT on FOX

Holmes(2026): 42.2 IP, 31 K, 14 BB, 3 HR, 1.69 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 42 ERA-

I don’t think anyone expecting Holmes to be this good a year plus into his transition to starting, but the results speak for themselves. He’s pitched into the sixth in all but one start and into the seventh in three starts. In his last two starts, he’s given up just one earned run and seven hits over 12 and tw0-thirds innings.

Kelly(2026): 19.0 IP, 14 K, 15 BB, 6 HR, 9.95 ERA, 8.14 FIP, 240 ERA-

Kelly’s first start of the year came in April 14, and he had a good one: five and a third innings pitched, two earned runs, three strikeouts. But since then, it’s been real bad. Each start has seen at least five earned runs, no more than five innings pitched, and he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out.

TBD vs Eduardo Rodriguez, 4:10pm EDT on SNY

Rodriguez (2026): 39.2.0 IP, 29 K, 19 BB, 4 HR, 2.50 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 60 ERA-

Rodriguez is having the best start of any Diamondback to the season, and he just had his best start of the year against the Pirates where he pitched seven innings of two-hit, shutout baseball. He’s waking more folks than he should, but so far he’s limiting the damage by not allowing many hits and limiting home runs, aside from one game when the White Sox took him deep twice.

Mookie Betts starts rehab assignment with Oklahoma City

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 04: Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers warms up before the game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on April 04, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Mookie Betts is starting a minor league rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City, and will play for the Comets on Friday and Saturday, the team announced on Thursday. Saturday marks the five-week mark since Betts strained his right oblique.

Kiké Hernández is already with Oklahoma City and has played two games so far for the Comets, manning third base on Tuesday and on Thursday, five innings in each game. Hernández is on the 60-day injured list and can’t be activated until May 24 at the earliest, so his rehab will last a little while.

Betts is likely a more immediate return, health permitting of course. When he missed two months in 2024 after breaking his hand, Betts didn’t play in any rehab games at all before getting activated. Betts hasn’t played in a minor league game since August 9, 2015 for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs while on the injured list with the Boston Red Sox, and that rehab assignment lasted all of one game.

The Dodgers have been deliberate with his rehab, backing off various drills or batting practice depending on how his oblique responded. That he’s ready to play in rehab games suggests he’s turned a corner.

“There’s no magic formula to this. You can do as much rehab as you want. Obliques just take time, it’s always four to six weeks, no matter however you want to twist it,” Betts said at Dodger Stadium last week. “We’re close, and after that it’s going to get a lot better.”

With Betts out, Hyeseong Kim has taken the lion’s share of playing time, starting 22 games at shortstop with Miguel Rojas starting seven times. Alex Freeland has remained at second base, the job he won in spring training, and do date has started 29 of 37 games at the position this season, with Rojas starting at second base five times and Santiago Espinal three times.

When Betts gets activated, someone on the roster has to go, with likely another roster move needed in two and a half weeks or so when Hernández is ready to go. But for now let’s focus on the near term.

Freeland and Kim can be optioned to the minors. Espinal, who has also started three times at third base, has over five years of service time and cannot be sent to the minors without his consent, so he’d need to be designated for assignment if the team wants to move on. Here’s how they’ve done do date:

  • Freeland: .253/.330/.363, 97 wRC+, 105 PA, .314 wOBA, .307 xwOBA, +2 fielding run value
  • Kim: .314/.372/429, 126 wRC+, 78 PA, .356 wOBA, .338 xwOBA, +2 fielding run value
  • Espinal: .185/.185/.259, 17 wRC+, 29 PA, .195 wOBA, .272 xwOBA, +1 fielding run value

Today’s question is which Dodgers player will be jettisoned from the active roster when Mookie Betts returns from the injured list?

Yankees Birthday of the Day: Art López

Art López could always hit. Despite an injured throwing arm that limited his effectiveness in the outfield, a diminutive stature, and little fanfare, he played until the age of 36, winning championships in six different countries. A hit tool can carry a ballplayer quite a long way, and despite his brief MLB career, the man had a fascinating life.

Arturo “Art” López Rodríguez 
Born: May 8, 1937 (Mayaguez, Puerto Rico)
Yankees Tenure: 1965

López grew up in Mayaguez, a city on the west coast of Puerto Rico. In addition to excelling in volleyball, he took an early interest in baseball, playing third base in sandlot games and closely following the Puerto Rican Winter League. The López family moved to New York in the late ‘40s, settling in in the Bronx, where young Art attended Morris High School. He quickly became a Yankees fan, later recalling the autographs he secured from the likes of Phil Rizzuto and Vic Raschi.

As was the norm in that era, López played not only high school ball but softball and stickball with neighborhood kids. A burgeoning baseball career was temporarily interrupted by four years of service in the Navy. Upon his return, he joined the Central Park League, playing amateur ball around New York, including a stint under manager John Candelaria Sr. (father of the longtime MLB pitcher who played for the Yankees in 1988 and ‘89).

López hit well enough to draw the attention of Yankees scout Art Dede, who invited him to a showcase at Yankee Stadium in addition to watching him play in several Central Park League games. In one of those games, López threw his bat in frustration after a strikeout but later homered. “When you strike out, don’t throw the bat,” Dede chided him after the game. Three days later, the scout showed up at López’s home and offered him a pro contract.

The outfielder steadily rose through the Yankees’ system, hitting .338 at Single-A in 1963 and .315 at Triple-A the following season. After an outstanding spring training performance that netted him the James P. Dawson Award for best performance by a Yankees rookie in 1965, López made the Opening Day roster for his beloved Yankees. He debuted in the season’s first game, pinch-running for a 33-year-old Mickey Mantle and coming around to score. He’d end up splitting the season between New York and Triple-A Toledo, recording just seven hits and one walk in 51 plate appearances in what would end up being his only MLB action.

After another season spent back in the minors, López accepted an offer from the Tokyo Orions that would make him the first Puerto Rican to play pro ball in Japan — even if the Orions initially thought they were signing his Yankees teammate, Hector López.

Despite the confusion at the outset of the deal, it turned into a happy ending. It was here that the erstwhile Yankee would play his best baseball. In four seasons with the club (which changed its name to the Lotte Orions in 1969), López hit .300 with 91 home runs, making two All-Star teams and helping lead the 1970 Orions to the pennant. He played two more years for the Yakult Atoms before handing up his spikes at the age of 36.

López reached out to Yankees owner George Steinbrenner inquiring about employment opportunities from his former club but never heard back. Instead, he launched what would be a long and fruitful second act in banking and insurance, eventually earning three master’s degrees and going into education. On the occasion of his 89th birthday, join us in wishing a very happy birthday to a man whose brief stint in pinstripes was just one chapter in an extraordinary life.


See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

This Week in Mets Quotes: The Mets on their cromulent week of professional baseball

May 7, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; New York Mets designated hitter Juan Soto (22) gestures in the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Your 2026 New York Mets: It just didn’t go our way there

“It was close. Especially from our angle, I couldn’t tell. And whatever they called on the field, I was pretty sure it was going to stand. And we called down and [replay analyst] Harrison [Friedland] said the same thing — there’s not an angle there where you could really tell whether it was fair or foul, and it just didn’t go our way there.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

I feel like a theme of this season is a lot of ‘hoping’ and ‘feeling’

“I was hoping it was foul, but after they called it fair and after looking at it, they decided it was a home run.” -Craig Kimbrel [MLB]

“With first and third, I was just trying to get a strikeout. And I felt like I did. Felt like [Willi Castro] went on the check swing, and it turned into a ball. Which turned into a grand slam.” -Craig Kimbrel [MLB]

… the other theme is players giving quotes along the lines that ‘it’s difficult not being there for the team’

“It is difficult, but at the end of the day, some things you can’t control. I’ve just got to keep going, keep working, just trying to get better to get back as soon as possible, and just trying to help the team. But it’s difficult not to be there.” -Jorge Polanco [New York Daily News]

My twice quoting that I “respect the decision” has people asking a lot of questions already answered by quote

“I respect the decision. Obviously, coming third time through the order and you have a lead there and you obviously want to hold it. I left those pitches arm-side for the four-pitch walk there, but I respect the decision.” -Christian Scott [MLB]

Huge go head home run by Ronny Mauricio but /Insert notecard that ‘Poochie died on the way to his home planet’ reference/

“It feels great to be able to help the team in a situation like that — obviously a situation where my hit put us ahead. We’re coming out here, we’re working, we’re doing everything we have to do to get out in front. It feels excellent.” -Ronny Mauricio [MLB]

While the Thursday’s loss was disappointing, let’s have a palate cleanser and acknowledge that the Mets did win two series on the road this past week

“We can’t sit here and think about the past. It’s one day at a time. But it’s good to see the guys playing loose, with confidence, just playing their games.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

“You want to have good games in this ballpark. It’s a good place to hit. It’s a big outfield. The ball carries. Juan starting off with a home run was good for everybody just to feel like it’s going to be a good day. And it definitely was.” -Marcus Semien [MLB]

“To punch first in the first inning … it’s always great.” -Juan Soto [MLB]

“I think it’s what I was personally expecting. I think this is who we are. We just have to keep it that way — that’s it. Without thinking about the past.” Freddy Peralta [MLB]

“They’re playing the game the way they’re capable. There’s a lot of smiles on their faces. It’s good to see them having fun.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

I mean, Benge is the current owner of a wRC+ of 74, but he is healthy, so this is factually correct

“[Carson Benge] can play. He can play.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

…and it’s probably a good sign when we cleared runway so that the team can learn if a top prospect panics when they continuously fail…

“Even when it was really, really hard for [Carson Benge], I never sensed any type of panicking. He handled it pretty well. He continues to show a lot of good signs on and off the field.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

…but in all seriousness, he did make a real nice play last Sunday and might be starting to hit

“I dove still not knowing but I know I was going to try to make a play for my guys.” -Carson Benge [MLB]

So to all you mother’s out there, happy birthday

“There’s so many times that she’s [his mother, Alana Hix] driven my truck. She probably has more miles on it than I do. There’s so many times that she’s driven my truck. She probably has more miles on it than I do.” -Austin Warren [MLB]

“She’s been there every step of the way.” -Austin Warren [MLB]

Swaggy V is coming back (wRC+ 89)

“I feel good. I just want to keep on it and keep putting good at-bats together.” -Mark Vientos [MLB]

“We’ve seen it. We haven’t seen that in a while, but when [Vientos] gets hot, man, he can carry a team.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

“The injuries for sure suck. I’m not too happy about those. I just feel like if I trust my process and my routine throughout the season, eventually I’m going to come through and I’m going to do my thing.” -Mark Vientos [MLB]

Just wanted to note this fun story about a fan that celebrated attending his 10,000 MLB game by Matt Monagan

“My father took me to Yankee Stadium on May 26, 1963. I was 10 1/2 years old. The Yankees won the first game, the Senators won the second game.” -Mike Casiano [MLB]

Congrats on Luis Torrens on getting his first extension of his career

“I’m really happy about it. Ever since I got here to the Mets, everyone has treated me great. I feel like I’m a part of the family, and there’s great value in that.” -Luis Torrens [MLB]

Just in case you missed it, probably due to Steve Gelb’s viral moment when he reported on the vending machine’s at Great American Ballpark in 2024, we have a new segment ‘Let’s Be Frank with Steve Gelbs’

“To me, this is a classic beer-and-dog baseball game hot dog. For that reason … I’m going to give it a 5.5.” David Wright [MLB]

It’s amazing that it’s been a whole decade since this happened

“Oh, [Bartolo Colon] works. He takes pride in it. He works his butt off. Out of his five-day cycle, he probably hits three out of the five days, and probably takes 40 to 50 swings a day. He’s a strong guy. He’s got tremendous hand strength. When he squares it up, it goes. So we’re not surprised he hit a home run. We’re surprised he hit it in a game.” -Pat Roessler assistant hitting coach [MLB]

Wishing Pete and Brandon the best with their new teams

“I feel like that having that respect from the guys I was with every day, the guys that I was going to battle every day with, so to speak — whether it be from the manager and other players — having that respect is obviously nice,” Alonso said before the Orioles opened a four-game series at Yankee Stadium. “But there’s no final conversation from a brass or ownership standpoint.” -Pete Alonso [ESPN]

“[If he was surprised by not having a final conversation] No, not really because I think things were kind of progressing in the way with Baltimore, and they were just like, ‘OK, all right.’ The No. 1 thing through the whole process … it’s kind of when you’re going through free agency and things are coming across, when things are so good you really don’t want to mess that.” -Pete Alonso [ESPN]

Is It Time For The Washington Nationals To Move CJ Abrams Off Shortstop?

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 05: CJ Abrams #5 of the Washington Nationals fields against the Minnesota Twins at Nationals Park on May 5, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) | Getty Images

2026 has been a breakout season for CJ Abrams on the offensive side of the ball, posting a .401 OBP, .960 OPS, and hitting 9 home runs entering play today. He is hitting the ball harder than ever, and his improved approach at the plate has led to a career-low strikeout rate and a career-high walk rate.

The one area Abrams has not made a stride this season is defensively, as in 36 games at shortstop this season, he ranks in the 1st percentile of Outs Above Average at -6. Many hoped Abrams could make improvements at short this season under the new regime, but unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case, as he is currently on pace for the worst defensive season of his career.

The most difficult balls for Abrams this season have been ones he has to charge in on, as he’s had at least -4 OAA on those types of batted balls the last 3 years, and is up to -5 OAA on them already this season. He has been better on balls hit to his left this season, posting a -1 OAA so far this season compared to -6 in 2025, but the overall body of work at shortstop has been lackluster yet again for him.

While Abrams has been subpar at shortstop defensively, the other half of the Nationals’ middle infield, Nasim Nunez, has shone defensively, with his 3 Outs Above Average ranking in the 95th percentile in all of baseball. Nunez has struggled offensively in 2026, providing most of his value in the little things, such as bunting and baserunning, but his defensive prowess makes him a valuable ballplayer regardless.

With Abrams lack of defensive success at shortstop and Nunez, a natural shortstop, thriving at second base, it’s fair to question why the Nationals don’t just flip the two defensively. Nunez would easily be the best defensive shortstop the Nats have had since Trea Turner, and his offensive shortcomings would be more tolerable because he’s defending so well at one of the most important positions on the field.

Moving Abrams off shortstop sooner than later makes sense for the Nats long term with the abundance of shortstops they have coming up through the minor league system, including but not limited to Eli Willits, Ronny Cruz, and Seaver King.

King is the closest of that group to reaching the big leagues, currently going scorched earth to Double-A pitching, and he is well-regarded for his smooth actions at shortstop with a strong arm to go with it. Willits is a few years away from debuting in the majors, but he is already standing out at Low A for his defensive abilities.

Moving CJ Abrams to second base also slightly cheapens up a possible extension for him, as the going rate for second basemen is lower than for shortstops in the league. Problems could arise if Abrams uses his claim to shortstop in negotiations, saying he won’t sign an extension if he’s moved off his position, but after years of poor defensive play at short, Abrams doesn’t deserve to have his claim to the position completely unchallenged.

Let’s not press any panic buttons yet on Andrew Painter

May 7, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Andrew Painter (24) throws a pitch during the third inning against the Athletics at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The first inning of Andrew Painter’s start against the Athletics was a painful one. The first four batters all reached base safely and all scored thanks to home runs by Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker. The pitch to Langeliers was a bad one, one that got appropriately punished, but the home run to Rooker wasn’t a horrible pitch at all. He just was able to get his hands in enough, fast enough, that he pulled the ball into the seats.

Reaction to this start wasn’t exactly the kind that would lend itself to people being happy with Painter, justifiably so. He just wasn’t good.

Of course, there were some over the top reactions…

At least there are Mets fans out there keeping the perspective squarely where it needs to be.

There are reasons to have some concern with where Painter is at right now, but for me, that’s a matter of perspective. Should there be panic buttons being pressed over what he has done so far? Should there be larger concerns about his future role on the team? Are we going to have to sweep him aside into the dustbin labeled “bust” for those prospects that failed?

For at least one of those questions, it’s far too early for that. Even the most cynical Phillies fan that is around can admit that labeling Painter a bust already is foolhardy. Seven games into a major league pitching career is simply not enough to make major determinations about anything this season, let alone the ones that follow. There has to be time for adjustment to the routine of being a major league pitching, adjusting to the lineups that are getting the scouting reports, learning how to be a complete pitcher rather than a guy with good stuff. Putting to bed the idea that Painter is somehow a bust should be easy enough.

However, there could be some legitimate concerns about Painter’s ultimate ceiling as a prospect. When coming up, he was billed as someone who might have an arsenal would lay waste to lineups across the game. The scourge known as Tommy John surgery has now cast into doubt if that ceiling can ever be reached, particularly when considering his stuff has taken a legitimate step back. Check any scouting report from before his 2023 injury on Baseball Prospectus:

Painter’s report presents some Rorschach test qualities for modern prospect evaluation. Both Jeffrey Paternostro and I saw him live last year and thought he was very good but not great from an eye-scouting perspective…A data-driven look at Painter will show him as a potential ace. His fastball velocity actually plays up due to carry and extension, and while he doesn’t have great visual command he fills up the top edges of the zone with pitches batters cannot drive and often cannot even make contact on. The breaking balls work well in concert with each other as a diving curve and sweeping slider—two distinct breaking balls in the same velocity band is a feature, not a bug, and those are two good breaking ball shapes—and the changeup may not be used often but has good potential. He sliced and diced through Low-A, High-A, and Double-A without any real challenge, and it’s not impossible that he makes the MLB rotation out of spring training—as a 19-year-old.

Compare that to what see now:

Since his return in the 2024 AFL, Painter’s stuff has moderately declined compared to 2022…While even this version of Painter is a good pitching prospect, there’s nothing special there to separate him from dozens of other pitchers with solid arm speed, a developing but underutilized changeup, and some capacity for spin. At the same time, we can’t fully ignore that this was his first full season back from Tommy John, and therefore it makes sense to build in a reasonable chance of further shape and command bouncebacks.

Not the trajectory anyone was really look for in his career, but this is what happens when the return from that kind of surgery doesn’t happen in a linear fashion. As we’ve seen in his debut month, his stuff and command both look as though they are trying to get back to where once were, but it’s fair to wonder if they ever will. Does the ceiling that many were projecting for him even exist any longer? Maybe, maybe not.

Is it fair to wonder if maybe the expectations of his ultimate ceiling should be throttled down? Absolutely. While it might be seen by some as another organizational failure to develop a front of the rotation starter from within, the fact is that the team does have Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo in place for at least the next five years to handle the top two spots in the rotation. Needing to have Painter be that frontline starter is no longer a necessity….but it still would be nice if he could get there.

But let’s not hit the panic button yet on him. He’s still only 23 years old and has made seven appearances thus far in the majors. He does need to be better, which means he and the coaching staff need to figure out what is going wrong lately, particularly when it pertains to his fastball. However, there is plenty of time for him to adjust to whatever the league sees and become something better than what he has shown in his last two starts.

Royals Regroup After Guardians Split, Rotation Depth Tested by Injuries

The Kansas City Royals just wrapped a pivotal series against the Cleveland Guardians, and there is plenty to unpack, from a wave of pitching injuries to the emergence of some intriguing names from within the organization.

Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco open with the injury news reshaping the Royals’ rotation outlook. Cole Reagins, Noah Cameron, and Carlos Estevez are all dealing with health concerns, and the guys break down what each absence means for roster construction and how the front office might respond, whether through internal call-ups, bullpen games, or a move at the trade deadline. Minor league starters Ryan Ramsey and Stephen Kolek are squarely in the conversation, and both get a thorough evaluation.

The bullpen remains a strength, and the debut of reliever Eric Cerantola is one of the episode’s highlights. Jacob and Jeremy dig into his strikeout profile, pitch extension, and how his release point and tunneling could make him a legitimate weapon. Meanwhile, Lucas Erceg’s recent outings get a fresh look, and the hosts draw a fascinating comparison to Mason Miller, who is quietly putting together one of the most dominant relief seasons in the league.

In the outfield, Isaac Collins, Kyle Isbel, and Lane Thomas are all part of a broader conversation about how Kansas City’s depth is evolving. Prospect Kendry Chourio’s workload management and timeline for a potential promotion also get attention, as does David Shields’ continued development in the system.

The episode rounds out with a look ahead to the upcoming series against the Detroit Tigers, a breakdown of the Royals’ bullpen metrics since April, and a nod to Bobby Witt Jr.’s MLB The Show takeover.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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Padres’ Luis Campusano goes on injured list with broken toe, Rodolfo Durán recalled for MLB debut

SAN DIEGO — Padres catcher Luis Campusano was placed on the 10-day injured list with a broken left toe, and 28-year-old Rodolfo Durán was called up to make his major league debut.

San Diego also transferred right-hander Joe Musgrove to the 60-day injured list as his return from Tommy John surgery continues to go slower than hoped.

Campusano fouled a ball off his foot. The veteran backup catcher had been off to an impressive start this season, batting .288 with a .958 OPS in his tandem with Freddy Fermin.

“Just got a little fracture in his big toe,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said. “It’s one of those things that he could potentially play through, depending on pain tolerance and all that. ... I think it’ll be good to be able to get past it in the IL stint instead of trying to play through something.”

The injury allows Durán to reach the majors for the first time after a minor league career that began in 2015. The Dominican catcher started out in the Phillies organization and spent time in the minors with the Yankees and Royals before signing with the Padres in January 2025.

Durán is batting .238 with a .785 OPS in 23 games for Triple-A El Paso this season. He was in the Padres’ lineup batting ninth and catching right-hander Michael King for San Diego’s homestand opener against St. Louis.

“This is a pretty cool call-up for him and all of us,” Stammen said of Durán. “We really loved what we saw from him in spring training this year and what he did last year in Triple-A. I expected him to be a great catcher. He’s got a great arm, but his bat has come alive the last two years. We definitely see him as a big league catcher.”

Musgrove hasn’t pitched since the NL playoffs in October 2024. He only made one appearance in spring training, and he still hasn’t started throwing again.

“He’s just focused on getting healthy, doing whatever he needs to do on a daily basis,” Stammen said.