Author: MLB Baseball News, Scores, Standings, Rumors, Fantasy Games

First Pitch (CT):1:10 PM
TV: Twins.TV
Radio: TIBN/830 WCCO/102.9 The Wolf /Audacy App
Know Yo’ Foe: South Side Sox

Fresh off a sweep of one set of Sox, the Twins will look to do the same to a White pair this time around. Zebby Matthews is on the mound for the Twins, staying in the rotation after a couple solid outings, while Simeon Woods Richardson has been demoted to long relief for the time being.

They’ll be facing lefty Anthony Kay, who is looking strong after spending two years playing in Japan. Kay’s overall season numbers aren’t dazzling, but he’s been very strong in the month of May with 2.11 ERA in 21.1 innings and four starts. Guys are still getting on base, he’s allowed eight walks and four hit batters this month, so it’ll be up to the middle of the lineup to make sure those guys are coming home this time around.

Also of note: the White Sox currently hold the second AL Wild Card spot while the Twins hold the third. It’s too early in the season for that to particularly matter, but the Twins will likely hold the second spot if they win this series. The White Sox aren’t elite by any stretch, but they are a talented group with a lot of young talent that is moving in the right direction. Even if they don’t maintain a hold on playoff position, they have a young core and a clear path forward, more than they’ve been able to say in years.

I’m spending Memorial Day with some family so I won’t be around the comments, but I’ll see you post-game where Austin Martin will be coming off the first multi homer game of his career (if this comes true, I’ll include the lottery numbers in the recap as well).

Lineups

After an unexpected couple of weeks’ hiatus, I wanted to get back to looking at one promising Blue Jays prospect each week. Today, the Blue Jays’ intriguing 12th round selection in last year’s draft, who’s nearly matching the performance of his much more highly touted teammate, first rounder Jojo Parker.

Blaine Bullard was considered a top 3-5 round talent in the 2025 draft class, ranked #151 by Baseball America. His commitment to Texas A&M was regarded as pretty firm, though, and teams weren’t willing to risk taking him with a top 10 round pick and losing a valuable slot bonus. As a result, he slid out of the top 10 rounds entirely and the Jays were able to tab him 352nd overall. They scraped together $1.7m from money saved on Parker’s bonus and from a couple of later picks plus the allowed 5% bonus pool overage, roughly equivalent to the slot value for the 55th overall pick, and dared him to turn it down.

So far, they have to be happy that he couldn’t. Bullard is an elite athlete with easy plus speed. He’s been able to deploy that to steal 18 bags in 19 tries, one of the best success rates among all high volume runners in A ball. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his routes in centre field, and looks like he’ll ultimately be an above average to plus defender there.

The questions in his profile have all been about his future at the plate. He’s a switch hitter, but naturally left handed, and he’s far more advanced from that side of the plate. The scouting consensus was that he had the potential to be an average or somewhat better pure hitter, although he was seen as raw. He also faced questions about his ultimate power potential, with a lanky build and whippy swing that’s geared to spray grounders and line drives more than elevate for power.

So far, things have looked a little different than expected. Bullard has already launched five home runs in 167 PAs, using his wheels to add in eight doubles and a pair of triples. His .184 isolated slugging is well above the Florida State League average and third best among the 10 teenagers who have gotten regular run there. He’s also struck out a fair bit (30% of the time), though, and hasn’t produced many walks (8%, in a league where the median is 12%). It’s an effective overall package, as his .265/.337/.449 line has been 12% better than league average and in the 68th percentile among teenagers in full season ball, but it’s not quite the shape we expected.

Digging in a little, it appears that part of the difference is due to his switch hitting. All but two of his extra base hits have come from the left side, and his 27% and 9% walk and strikeout rates look a little more like it. He’s a more aggressive than average swinger, but his 68.7% in-zone swing rate and 27.4% chase rate suggest decent underlying plate discipline. He’s making contact inside the zone just 78% of the time, which is less than ideal, but not disastrous by any stretch and not necessarily a surprise for such a young player seeing professional pitching for the first time. When he does hit the ball, he’s delivering the low line drives expected, with a 5.5 degree launch angle, but he actually makes his best contact a little higher, with a 13.7 degree angle on hard hit balls. His 85mph average exit velocity and 27% hard hit rate from that side would both be near the bottom of the scale in MLB but they’re not bad for a teenager and suggest that with a little maturation he could get to the 40-grade raw power many scouts projected for him, with enough hard contact pulled for line drives or fly balls to get to all of it in games.

Things are less promising from the right. He’s struck out 11 times in just 24 PA without a walk, and has just 6 hits, two of them doubles. His 80.6mph average exit velocity is pretty dismal, as is his -4.5 degree launch angle. He’s more aggressive from that side, swinging 54% of the time, and he’s whiffing far too much both inside the zone (67.7% contact rate) and outside it (25%). It’s a small sample because Dunedin hasn’t happened to face that much left handed pitching yet, but it’s at least a yellow flag on his ability to switch hit longer term.

The overall picture is of a very talented player experiencing mixed success with an aggressive assignment to start his pro career. Many high schoolers, including for example last year’s 9th overall pick Steele Hall and Bullard’s draft-classmate Tim Piasentin, would start their first full pro season at the complex. Bullard was sent straight to a real league where he’s more than two years younger than his average competition, and has produced. His speed and defence look to be everything advertised, and his power production has exceeded expectations. He also has clear work to do on refining his approach and contact ability, though. That goes for both sides of the plate, and the gap on the right side is big enough to question whether he might ultimately wind up focusing on his natural left handed stroke full time. He remains one of the higher upside players in the system, with the potential to develop into a Lorenzo Cain or Coco Crisp type table setting centre fielder if everything comes together.

Go Rays!

One of the biggest storylines of this month for the Nats has been the play of their catcher Keibert Ruiz. The Nats catcher is playing some of the best baseball in his career, combining great offense with a new found defensive game. It is no secret that Ruiz has struggled since signing his 8 year extension, so seeing this from the 27 year old is very encouraging.

In April, it was clear that Ruiz was laser focused on his defense, to the point where it was harming his hitting. He was grading out well defensively early in the season, but his hitting was putrid. Ruiz posted a dismal .480 OPS in April. However, he has totally flipped the switch in May, hitting .340 with a 1.049 OPS. Ruiz has done all this while maintaining his strong defense.

It feels like the Twins series early in May was a big turning point for him. Ruiz had a monster three for four day with 8 total bases. Ever since then, Ruiz has been absolutely smoking baseballs. Ruiz has been looking to do damage rather than just put the bat on the ball this month.

Of Keibert Ruiz’s 16 hits this month, 11 of them have gone for extra bases. Ruiz has a crazy 8 doubles this month, and it is not like he is turning singles into doubles with his speed. The Nats catcher is just smoking balls, especially to the pull side. That pull side thunder has been a staple of his game this season.

Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, nobody is pulling the ball in the air more than Keibert Ruiz. His air pull percentage is an insane 38.2%. Statistically, pulled flyballs are some of the most productive batted ball events for hitters. Some guys are not built to sell out for air pull, but if you can do that, it is a positive. That is exactly what Ruiz is doing right now.

He is not just pulling balls in the air in an attempt to hit a bunch of home runs though. Ruiz is yanking a ton of balls down the line for doubles as well. He is able to outslug his pedestrian exit velocity numbers because of this. A great example of this is his double the other night. If he hit this ball to center field, it would be a routine fly out. Instead, it was almost a home run that bounced off the wall and became a double.

Some of Ruiz’s underlying numbers are still in rough shape because of how bad that April was. His xWOBA is still only .261, but it has been going up steadily this month. His overall numbers for the season look very good though. Ruiz is hitting .252 with a .754 OPS, which is very good for a catcher playing quality defense. Sure, his on base percentage is only .269 because he has only walked twice all season, but he is making up for that with a very good .485 slugging percentage.

Pulling the ball more is a big reason for the jump in slug, but it is not everything. Ruiz is also hitting the ball a lot harder. His average exit velocity has gone from 86.2 MPH last year to 90.1 MPH this year. That is a massive jump, and it is allowing him to do a lot more damage.

The bat has been very impressive this month, but we have seen Ruiz get hot with the bat before. His defense has probably been the most impressive thing about his season. For most of his career, Ruiz has been one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball, with -22, -7 and -10 fielding run value the last three seasons. Under the tutelage of new catching coach Bobby Wilson, Ruiz has +3 FRV for the season, a truly stunning turnaround.

Ruiz’s blocking and framing have gotten so much better this season. He has 2 blocks above average and is in the 84th percentile as a framer. Last season he had -6 blocks above average and was a 4th percentile framer. Ruiz has also done a nice job controlling the running game, especially lately.

Among catchers with at least 60 plate appearances, Ruiz is tied for 10th in fWAR with 0.8 wins above replacement. That is a crazy turnaround for a guy who has posted negative fWAR in the last three seasons, mainly due to his defense. You have to give credit to Bobby Wilson, but also wonder what they were teaching Ruiz before.

If Keibert Ruiz can even post a .700ish OPS for the season while playing solid defense, that would be a massive win. With that kind of production, Ruiz would be playing up to, or even exceeding his contract. Coming into the season, that contract looked like an anchor, but who knows now.

We still need to see Ruiz keep this up. It has only been a month, so there’s still a decent chance that his bat falls off a cliff again. I actually think the defense is fairly likely to be at least average going forward. We are two months into the season, and I think the defensive improvements are real.

One other thing that is important to point out is how they are using Ruiz. The Nats are managing his playing time very well. He has been in a near even split with Drew Millas this year. In this hot run, Ruiz is getting a bit more playing time, but Millas still gets at least a couple starts a week. Under Davey Martinez, it felt like Ruiz was getting run into the ground. Ruiz is a competitive guy, and it seemed like Davey just asked Keibert if he was ready to play, and naturally he always said yes. 

Now, Ruiz is not putting too much strain on his body, and is being put in advantageous matchups. Blake Butera has really liked Ruiz against left handed pitchers this year, and it is easy to see why. The switch hitting Ruiz is hitting .333 with a .911 OPS as a right handed hitter. Ruiz starts just about every game against lefties, and some of them against righties.

There is still plenty of time for things to go haywire, and I am knocking on wood, but I love this version of Keibert Ruiz. He is a reliable defender, who is looking to do damage at the plate. Ruiz still has his warts, like never walking, but he has been an ultra-productive player for the Nats this month. Long may that continue for the Nats catcher.

Before we start with our usual fanfare, we do want to thank the men and women who have sacrificed their lives for this country to allow us to enjoy things like Memorial Day Weekend.

The week started auspiciously with Royce Lewis getting sent to St. Paul and ended with a sweep of the Red Sox. I just give out the facts folks; you can choose to connect the dots if you want. All joking aside, it was a much-needed week for the Twins as they went 5-1 against the bottom-feeders in the American League. The bullpen is still in a state of organized chaos, with Travis Adams becoming the 11th reliever to earn a save this season. We also saw some fruits of the Jorge Polanco trade as Gabriel Gonzalez made his debut with the major-league team on Friday, going 1-2 with two walks. Ironically, earlier in the week, Justin Topa, another player who came over in that deal, was DFA’d. The Twins now go to South Side Chicago to face the White Sox in a four-game series and could take second position in the AL Central. The team will wrap up May with a three-game series in Pittsburgh.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• Zach Koenig takes us back to the miserable year of 2006.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• Bobby Nightengale at the Star Tribune reveals how Twins rookie Andrew Morris has earned manager Derek Shelton’s trust.
• For all the grief that the Twins have earned this season, John Shipley at the Pioneer Press actually likes the team.
• Theo Tollefson at Zone Coverage checks in on Royce Lewis as he figures out his swing in St. Paul.

In the World of Baseball:

• The Rays have increased their lead to 4.5 games over the Yankees, who are tied with the Guardians for second in the AL standings. The A’s are a distant fourth place now, 4.0 games behind. The Twins have actually vaulted into the top six in the standings, despite owning a losing record, half a game behind the Chicago White Sox.
• It’s a bit of a tighter race in the National League, with the Dodgers 2.0 games behind Atlanta, while the Brewers and Padres are 1.5 games behind LA. You have to scroll down to the 11th team, the Philadelphia Phillies, to find the first team with a losing record.
• Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers has been throwing gas this season, with over 250 pitches over 100 mph. Brian Murphy at MLB.com looks at what the Miz thinks are the limits of his talent.-
• Ryan Hockensmith at ESPN documents how Aaron Judge’s freshman year at Fresno State set him up for success as a big leaguer.

Pre-season prognosticators were virtually unanimous: The Seattle Mariners will win the AL West. And they may well do so, but if they win the division it will not be on the strength of the season’s first 1/3. The Mariners completed their 54th game yesterday, an 8-6 loss to the Royals that left them 25-29 for the season.

How many games were the Mariners predicted to win in 2026? Here projection systems vary a touch, but let’s go with 93 as a reasonable median that conveniently is divisible by 3. That means Seattle was projected to average winning 31 games in each of the season’s three “thirds”.

Does a 25-29 start mean analysts were way, way off and in fact the Mariners are going to win only 75 games? Probably not. Does it mean analysts were exactly right and to make up for lost time Seattle will go 68-40 the rest of the way to finish with those 93 wins? Probably not.

Here’s what I would submit is the most mathematically sound way to look at it. If the Mariners are a 93 win team that masqueraded as a 25-29 squad for 2 months, you can reasonably expect them to play at a 93 win clip going forward. But this comes with a significant caveat: Some losses are already in the bank.

How many losses? Instead of going the projected 31-23 the Mariners won a whopping 6 fewer games than that pace. And those are 6 losses they can’t get back. Give Seattle its 93 win pace going forward and you get a big turnaround of a 62-46 record in the last 2/3 of the season. Don’t be surprised if the Mariners “get up on the deck” and go 62-46 the rest of the way.

The problem, for Seattle, is that this leaves them with a season record of 87-75, not the 93-69 originally predicted. And that is a huge difference in terms of what the bar might be for teams like the A’s, Rangers, even Astros (who are only 4.5 games back of 1st place thanks to the mediocrity of the division to date).

This is important because it suggests that while the standard needed to win the AL West was poised to be something like 24 games over .500, Seattle’s stumbling first 1/3 might bring that standard all the way down to more like 12 games over .500. The A’s need to go 60-49 (a .550 clip) the rest of the season in order to finish with 87 wins.

Of course none of this is set in stone or even etch-a-sketch. It’s still entirely possible Seattle could get sizzling hot and win 95 games or that they could remain in quicksand and finish with just 78 wins. Or Texas could turn out to be the team to beat, or who knows? This is why you play the games and just try to win as often as possible.

Is my “mathnalysis” the right way to look at the division going forward? Or if not what do you think is a better projection for “The State Of The AL West” going into the season’s second 1/3? The only analysis I can bet we will all agree on is this: beating Seattle these next 3 days will only help the A’s cause.

The first series of the Orioles’ season-longest 10-game homestand went reasonably well. The O’s took advantage of a reeling Tigers team to take two out of three games, though let’s not try to think about the fact that they were one strike away from losing the series.

Now the task gets much tougher with a rematch against the majors’ best team, the Rays, who swept the Orioles at Tropicana Field last week. Tampa Bay enters today with a stupendous 34-16 record, 12.5 games better than the Birds. And it’s only May.

The Rays will throw Baltimore-born ace lefty Shane McClanahan at the O’s in today’s opener. The good news is that the Orioles actually had some success against him last week, tagging him for four runs, tied for his season worst. The bad news is that the O’s still got destroyed in that game, 16-6, so McClanahan cruised to an easy win. Kyle Bradish gets the start for the Orioles. He pitched well in Tampa Bay last week, holding the Rays to two runs in 5.1 innings, but got no run support. Imagine that.

The Birds, as usual against a lefty, are stacking their lineup with righties, even those who can’t hit against southpaws (most notably Tyler O’Neill, who is 2-for-39 against lefties). The exception is Jackson Holliday, a lefty-swinger who’s getting the start today against McClanahan. He probably wouldn’t be if Coby Mayo were healthy, but the O’s third baseman is still sidelined with a back injury.

Today marks Cedric Mullins’ return to Baltimore for the first time since the O’s traded him last July. He’ll surely receive a standing ovation from the Camden Yards crowd and a nice video tribute on the Jumbotron. Best of luck, Cedric. I hope you have a great game individually while your team loses.

Orioles lineup:

LF Taylor Ward
DH Gunnar Henderson
C Adley Rutschman
1B Pete Alonso
3B Weston Wilson
CF Leody Taveras
SS Blaze Alexander
2B Jackson Holliday
RF Tyler O’Neill

RHP Kyle Bradish

Rays lineup:

LF Chandler Simpson
3B Junior Caminero
1B Jonathan Aranda
DH Yandy Díaz
2B Richie Palacios
CF Cedric Mullins
RF Victor Mesa Jr.
C Hunter Feduccia
SS Taylor Walls

LHP Shane McClanahan

Whatever listlessness is plaguing the Mariners currently, it would be great if they figured out how to snap out of it this week. This series against the Athletics represents the last time Seattle will face the current AL West leaders until September. It’s actually the last series against a division rival until the final week of June. I don’t know if it’s a lack of urgency that’s leading to the sloppy play or if it’s just plain old bad baseball. Maybe a series with real stakes is what the team needs to get this season on track again.

Thanks to the uninspired play throughout the AL West, the Athletics have led the division for the majority of the season so far. This despite running a win percentage just a hair over .500 throughout their reign atop the standings; indeed, they’ve gone exactly 14-14 since these two teams met in Seattle at the end of April. Their young offense is still the brightest spot on the roster, though they haven’t been as dominant as they were last year. The pitching staff is still a bit of a mess, though that group has improved over last year’s disaster. They’re still struggling to prevent runs at home in Sutter Health Park and it’s not even the middle of the summer when the temperatures skyrocket and the winds pick up.

The A’s lineup is built around a core that includes reigning Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler, and the veteran Brent Rooker. It’s been a pretty mixed bag for that group to start the season. Langeliers has taken his breakout from last year to another level, leading all AL catchers in fWAR and wRC+. Kurtz hasn’t found the power that he displayed during his award-winning season last year; instead, he’s getting on base more than any other player in baseball. The remaining four players in that core have really struggled; Wilson injured his shoulder recently, an oblique injury slowed Rooker down in April, and Soderstrom and Butler have simply been bad. Butler has struggled so much that he’s essentially been benched over the last few weeks. 

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

From a previous series preview:

The A’s signed Aaron Civale in February to give them another veteran innings eater while their top pitching prospects continue to develop in the minors. Pitching for his sixth team in four years, he’s a prototypical back-end starter with a deep repertoire. He doesn’t stand out in any one area, but average skills across the board help him work through a lineup a couple of times without courting disaster. His best pitch is a hammer curveball and he’ll mix in five other pitches to keep batters off balance.

It hasn’t been easy serving as the Athletics’ ace during their brief time in Sacramento. Over the last two years, Luis Severino has pitched to a very respectable 3.14 ERA and 3.69 FIP on the road. At home, it’s been an ugly 5.91 ERA and a 4.68 FIP. At least he’s been able to rekindle some of that electric stuff that made him one of the most exciting pitchers in baseball nearly a decade ago. He’s throwing his fastball harder than he has since 2018, though he’s also throwing his heater less often than ever too. Instead, he’s leaning on his sweeper much more often and mixing in a sinker and cutter to give batters three different fastballs to deal with. His strikeout rate has benefitted — it’s the highest it’s been since 2022 — but his walk rate has jumped up to 11.7% too.

Jeffrey Springs has faced the same challenges pitching in Sutter Health Park, though his home/road splits aren’t as dramatic as Severino’s. Instead, he’s managed to survive by generating a ton of weak contact. His .255 BABIP was the ninth lowest among qualified pitchers last year and it’s even lower this season. He allows a ton of contact in the air and all that elevated contact hasn’t turned into damage like you might expect. It’s mostly just weak fly balls that are easily caught. He’s also throwing a little harder this season, though his strikeout-to-walk ratio is almost an exact mirror of what he posted last year. His best pitch is still his changeup and that’s what allows him to run a slightly reverse platoon split.

The Big Picture:

The A’s lost their weekend series against the Padres, allowing the Mariners to keep pace in the AL West standings. The Rangers dipped below Seattle after getting swept by the lowly Angels over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Astros have clawed their way to 4.5 games back after they swept the Cubs. The two Texas teams face each other in a huge four-game series this week.

The Philadelphia Phillies’ righthanded hitters have been a massive disappointment this season. Of their regular players who hit from the right side, Trea Turner has the highest OPS at .619. Adolis Garcia, signed to be the regular right fielder is batting .203 with four home runs. Despite that weak production, Nick Castellanos has done little to make the Phillies regret releasing him.

This shouldn’t be surprising because in aggregate, Castellanos was one of the worst players in baseball during his four years with the team. There would be periods when he looked like the middle of the order bat the Phillies thought they were signing, and he deservedly made the All-Star team in 2023. But those periods were too brief and separated by long stretches when he seemed to do nothing but swing futilely at low and away breaking pitches.

There has been plenty written about Castellanos since his release. My impression is that he isn’t an outright bad person or teammate, but he was a diva and me-first guy. He didn’t respect the manager or hitting coach – partly because they didn’t play in the major leagues – and wasn’t especially receptive to coaching. Perhaps most importantly, he wanted to be afforded star treatment by management despite a distinct lack of star results on the field.

Thanks in part to Castellanos’ Instagram manifesto, there’s been a narrative that the Phillies “got rid of him for drinking a beer.” I’m sure that was his intention. But it’s clear that he wasn’t just trying to enjoy a cold one after a stressful experience, but rather attempting to blatantly break the rules – and yes, this is an MLB rule – to show how mad he was at the manager who had the audacity to pull him – one of the worst defensive players in the game – for a defensive replacement.

It’s interesting that nowhere in Castellanos’ written letter did he mention that he would still be on the team had his play even come close to matching expectations from when he signed. I was never crazy about the signing in the first place because it seemed like an impulse buy, but the Phillies thought they were getting a hitter who would be a great complement to their lefthanded sluggers Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.

Instead, according to WAR, he was one of the least valuable players in baseball two of his four years with the Phillies. In fairness, much of that negative value came on defense, and when he was signed, I believe the expectation was that he’d spend a decent amount of time at designated hitter. But his offensive numbers weren’t all that great either. Over the four years, his OPS+ was an even 100 which represents an average hitter, which is definitely not what the Phillies thought they were getting after a career best season in 2021.

And that’s ultimately the reason he is now an ex-Phillie: His production on the field wasn’t nearly enough to compensate for how much of a pain he apparently was off it. If you’re going to act like a diva, then you’d better play like a star. And you need to be self-aware enough to realize that you’re not playing like a star.

Maybe he’s happier in San Diego, but his play on the field hasn’t reflected that. He’s batting just .190 with four home runs, although his play has improved since injuries have forced the Padres into making him their everyday right fielder. He’s even delivered a few clutch moments along the way.

Of course, delivering the occasional clutch hit was never Castellanos’ problem. It was the long stretches in between those clutch moments that was the problem.

Being who he is, it feels like a given that Castellanos will hit at least one home run this season. It will be extremely interesting to see how he reacts and what he says after the game when that happens.

Pennant year song battle

This feature doesn’t seem to be all that popular, so this may be the last one. But for now, It’s a Mistake by Men at Work continues to hold the crown, getting past Flo Rida’s Right Round.

In honor of Memorial Day, this week’s song comes from 1915: I Didn’t Raise My Boy to Be a Soldier by Morton Harvey.

Vote for the winner:

Additional thought about the series

I’m somewhat confused how the Padres are doing so well. They’re 31-21 despite underperformances from star players Manny Machado (.608 OPS) and Fernando Tatis (.615 OPS).

The Padres have the lowest team batting average in baseball, are next to last in on-base percentage, and third from last in slugging percentage. You’d think that meant they were carried by their pitching staff, but the team ERA is a good, but not amazing .386.

They’re outplaying their Pythagorean record by four games, and that makes sense once you see how good the backend of their bullpen has been. Closer Mason Miller has been almost untouchable this season, going 16-16 in save opportunities. Not only has he not blown a save, but he also hasn’t allowed a run in his save opportunities.

Setup man Jason Adam has been almost as good, with a .102 ERA in 19 games. And the rest of their bullpen with guys like Bradgley Rodriguez and Wandy Peralta has been solid as well.

Basically, the key to beating the Padres is to score early. Because if you are trailing heading into the late innings, you’re probably not going to be making a comeback.

Greetings to all of you on this Memorial Day!

The Brewers finally lost a series over the weekend, their first series loss since April 24-26 against Pittsburgh, but it was still a good week, as Milwaukee went 4-2 against the Cubs and Dodgers. They’ll try to keep playing good baseball against another NL Central foe this week, as they start a three-game series with the surprising St. Louis Cardinals today at American Family Field.

The Cardinals are doing better than anyone thought. I am one of those people. There’s certainly a lot of season left, but St. Louis has jumped out to a 29-22 record, just behind the Brewers for second in the NL Central, despite a run differential of +1. A big part of that is their record in one-run games: at 10-4, the only teams in their territory in this regard are the Rays (9-1) and the Cubs (9-3). They’re also 7-2 in extra-inning games this year, which is more wins in extras than any other team. These underlying factors suggest some regression could be in the cards (get it), but Brewers fans have seen enough of this devil magic in their lifetimes to take nothing for granted, even if it seems as if some of that witchery has moved up to Milwaukee in the past few years.

Starting for St. Louis is lefty Matthew Liberatore, who hasn’t had a great year. In 10 starts, he’s 2-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 4.84 FIP, with not quite enough strikeouts (7.5 per nine) and a few too many walks (3.5 per nine) and homers (1.6 per nine). He’s allowed four runs in five innings or less in each of his last two starts, so the Brewers will try to get to him as well.

Jacob Misiorowski will be on the hill for the Brewers, and a scoreless outing today would likely clinch a scoreless May for the flamethrowing right-hander — he hasn’t allowed a run since that last series loss, on April 25 against Pittsburgh. We’ve covered it heavily, but it bears repeating: in the month of May, Misiorowski has a 0.00 ERA in 24 1/3 innings, during which he has struck out 37 batters and walked five (and allowed only nine hits). At the risk of jinxing something, Misiorowski seems to have ascended to the very top of the food chain far faster than anyone, including himself, expected. As long as he is pitching this way, he is very much in the Cy Young conversation.

Christian Yelich is back in the lineup today, a slight surprise versus the left-handed Liberatore. Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell are the other lefties in today, while Jackson Chourio and Blake Perkins round out the outfield with Luis Rengifo, Joey Ortiz, Andrew Vaughn, and William Contreras the others in the infield. A possible new Brewer nemesis, JJ Wetherholt, tops the Cardinals’ lineup: he came into the season ranked as high as No. 3 in prospect rankings, and he’s been one of the best middle infielders in the league thus far this season, combining solid offense (a 120 OPS+, nine homers) with defensive metrics that place him amongst the elite glovemen in the league.

It’s a rare Monday matinee on the holiday today, with first pitch at 1:10 p.m. Catch the game on Brewers TV and the Brewers Radio Network.

The San Diego Padres took a tough loss in the series finale against the Athletics on Sunday. After Michael King gave up three runs in the first two innings, the Padres found themselves in a hole they couldn’t get out of.

They managed to accrue nine hits, but failed to score until the sixth inning after some base running gaffes took away a few high-leverage opportunities. Had those gaffes not happened, the Friars could have certainly won this game.

They’ll now face a surging Philadelphia Phillies club headed by interim manager Don Mattingly. They’ve had some momentum with power hitting (slugging three homers on Friday’s series opener), but they’ll need to come alive against Philly’s pitching.

Taking the mound

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) v. Randy Vásquez (SD)

The lefty Luzardo was given an extension with Philadelphia at the outset of 2026, cementing his place in the Phillies’s rotation. That extension has not paid off the way they hoped, with Luzardo owning a 4.85 ERA.

He hasn’t been much better recently, with a 4.23 ERA in his last seven starts (38.1 IP). Luzardo has been inconsistent in limiting contact, with 58 hits and 66 strikeouts through his year. His last two starts have been solid, giving up just two runs across 12 innings.

Vásquez has shared ace duties with King this year, authoring a career-best 2.96 ERA through 54 2/3 innings. He’s lost that a bit in his recent starts, posting a 3.89 ERA across his last 37 innings.

His last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers was uncharacteristic, pitching just 4 1/3 innings and allowing three runs. If he can limit the Phillies lineup, he’ll need to do much better at limiting contact from Philadelphia’s sluggers.

Batter up!

Fernando Tatis Jr. has finally started to break out, going 4-for-10 with two walks in the series. It’s been up-and-down (mostly down) for the Padres superstar. Perhaps his elusive first homer is not too far away.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B
2. Miguel Andujar, DH
3. Gavin Sheets, 1B
4. Manny Machado, 3B
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS
6. Jackson Merrill, CF
7. Ramón Laureano, LF
8. Nick Castellanos, RF
9. Freddy Fermin, C

Fermin has had a tough go of things lately. Entering play on Monday, Fermin is batting .146 with zero homers this year. He’s been good defensively, but hasn’t done much else to prove his value.

Ty France had a great outing on Sunday, going 2-for-4 with a homer and a walk. Some poor base running stopped him from scoring another run, but he was a big part of the Padres almost-comeback.

Relief corps

After using most of their high-leverage pieces in Saturday’s win, the Friars were resting on the laurels of ace Michael King. Unfortunately, he did not deliver, only making it through 3 2/3 innings before giving way to the ‘pen.

Thankfully, Ron Marinaccio pitched an efficient three innings before Wandy Peralta took over in the seventh to record the final out. Peralta pitched a scoreless eighth and Bradgley Rodriguez came in to close the game. He gave up a run on three hits and a walk but escaped the jam by striking out Jeff McNeil.

Yuki Matsui was the only pitcher not used in the series against the A’s. He’ll be available tonight against Philly, but Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon will be as well.

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, May 25, 2026, 1:35 p.m. ET

Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Broadcast: KDKA AM/FM, Sportsnet

Pitching Matchup: Ben Brown (1-2, 2.09 ERA) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (4-3, 3.96 ERA)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home hosting the Chicago Cubs today at beautiful PNC Park.

Please remember our Game Day thread guidelines.

• Don’t troll in your comments; create conversation rather than destroying it
• Remember Bucs Dugout is basically a non-profanity site
• Out of respect to broadcast partners who have paid to carry the game, no mentions of “alternative” (read: illegal) viewing methods are allowed in our threads
• The commenting system was updated during the summer. They’re still working on optimizing it for Game Day Threads like ours. If you don’t like clicking “Load More Comments”, remember that the “Z” key can be your friend. It loads up the latest comments automatically.

BD community, this is your thread for today’s game. Enjoy!

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The Philadelphia Phillies head to Petco Park tonight to begin a three-game series with the San Diego Padres. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. 

My Phillies vs. Padres predictions are eyeing the visitors to win the opener, with Jesus Luzardo bringing his best on the mound. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, May 25. 

Who will win Phillies vs Padres today: Phillies moneyline (-120)

The Philadelphia Phillies head into tonight’s matchup riding a four-game road winning streak, and Jesus Luzardo has been far more effective away from home.

The left-hander owns a stellar 1.52 ERA in four road outings compared to a 7.31 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Luzardo has also allowed just two earned runs across his last two starts away from Philly.

The San Diego Padres counter with Randy Vasquez, whose ERA jumps from 2.96 overall to 4.20 at Petco Park. Philadelphia’s lineup has also enjoyed success against him, batting .500 in 20 at-bats led by Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and Kyle Schwarber.

COVERS INTEL: Luzardo owns a 3.20 xERA this season, and he's in the top 10 of the MLB in lowest hard hit rate. 

Phillies vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

Recent meetings between these clubs have been low-scoring, with the Under cashing in three of the last four matchups. Luzardo appears to be settling into a groove, while Vasquez typically keeps damage limited despite occasional struggles at Petco Park.

Offense has also been an issue for both teams this season. The Phillies rank 21st in MLB in runs scored, while the Padres sit 19th. Both bullpens have been reliable, each carrying sub-4.00 ERAs. 

Philadelphia has hit the Under in eight of its last 10 games, while San Diego has stayed below 7.5 runs in three of its previous four contests.

Phillies vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Phillies -117 | Padres +113
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Padres +1.5 (-156)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+108) | Under 7.5 (-113)

Phillies vs Padres trend

The Phillies have cashed the Under in total runs in eight of their last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Padres.

How to watch Phillies vs Padres and game info

Phillies vs Padres latest injuries

Phillies vs Padres weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It's a big Memorial Day slate on the diamond, with day games sprinkled throughout; there is a lot to take in today.

I'm locked in on two MLB player props this evening, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers offense against an overmatched Colorado Rockies pitching staff.

Read on for my complete MLB picks on Monday, May 25.

Best MLB best bets today

Player/Team	Pick	Odds
James Wood	Over 1.5 HRR	-106
Luke Raley	Over 1.5 HRR	+102
Dodgers	F5 team total Over 2.5	-154

James Wood Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-106)

I’m never a fan of laying juice on a 1.5 player prop, but for Washington Nationals slugger James Wood, this is a very fair price. I wouldn’t take it much higher than this, so if you can find a boost, use it here. I’m also on his home run. I always pair a homer with any player I’m backing.

The Nationals outfielder draws Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee, who has struggled against left-handed bats this season.

Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, he is allowing a 22.2% ground ball rate, 47.2% fly ball rate, and 30% line drive rate. Those lefties are also making 44% hard contact with an 11.1% barrel rate. Bibee also sports a 0.00 HR/9 during that span. He is playing with fire with the number of hard-hit balls he has been allowing.

Wood has great arsenal coverage against Bibee’s offerings and has been excellent against right-handed pitching over his last 30 plate appearances, owning a .483 wOBA. Overall, he is making 58.3% hard contact while also sporting a 25% barrel rate against right-handed pitchers. 

Insane numbers across the board. How could I not be on Mr. Wood this evening in Cleveland?!

• Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Guardians.TV

Luke Raley Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+102)

Full transparency, I boosted Luke Raley’s hit prop to -103, but if that boost is not available, take the plus money on his hits, runs, and RBI.

The Seattle Mariners outfielder has been seeing the ball extremely well this season, especially on the road, where he owns a .522 SLG, .842 OPS, and 137 wRC+, while making 55.6% hard contact with a 20% barrel rate.

He matches up very well against Athletics right-hander Aaron Civale, who owns the seventh-worst pitcher rating on the day per Batters-Box.

Left-handed hitters have given him the most trouble this season, especially at home, where they are batting .346 with a .519 SLG and .408 wOBA. The 30-year-old starter has also been allowing just a 19% ground ball rate to lefties, while they are elevating the hell out of the baseball, combining for an 80.5% line drive and fly ball rate.

If you can’t get this at plus money, I’d pivot to the Over 1.5 on total bases. In baseball props, I always lean into plus money when it’s there, unless the hit prop is priced really well. If you’re laying around -160 on a hit, that’s still a green light for me

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBC Sports California

Dodgers first-five innings team total Over 2.5 (-154)

Instead of throwing darts trying to decide which of the seven elite-rated Los Angeles Dodgers I wanted to back tonight, I decided to just back the lineup as a whole in the first five innings.

The Dodgers enter with the highest-rated offense on the slate as they take on Colorado Rockies right-hander Tanner Gordon, who owns the worst pitcher rating on the day. Gordon also grades poorly in average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, strikeout percentage, and ground ball rate.

Los Angeles has crushed right-handed pitching at home over its last 12 games, owning a 113 wRC+, .730 OPS, and .328 wOBA, while also carrying a 13.7% walk rate.

Overall, the Dodgers rank second in first-five scoring, averaging nearly three runs in the first five innings per game. Meanwhile, Colorado is allowing the second-most runs in the first five frames at 3.22 per game.

With four elite left-handed bats in the lineup and Gordon allowing 58.8% hard contact with a 23.5% barrel rate to lefties, it is hard for me not to back the Dodgers early tonight.

If you are not a fan of paying juice, take them to go over 3.5 runs at +115. Personally, for that many runs for just a +115 price tag, I am not a fan. You might as well parlay this prop with one of the guys above to record a hit and get yourself plus money that way.

• Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SportsNet LA

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Tonight, we are at the 1/3 mark of the season.

The team is 25-28, which, rather amazingly, puts them just one game back of a Wild Card playoff. The AL is not exactly firing on all cylinders this year.

A year ago, the Jays were 26-27, which had them two games back of a Wild Card spot.

And really, the problem last year was much the same as this year; they weren’t hitting. This year, there are a lot of injuries involved; last year, we weren’t hitting, and then suddenly we started hitting. We had scored 207 runs, while the Yankees had scored 301. We were second last in the AL East in runs scored, two up on the Orioles.

But… just cause the team turned it on at this point last year, doesn’t mean it is going to happen again.

I mean, the good news is that we are likely to get some players back from the IL in the next two or three weeks. Nathan Lukes should join the team again next week. Addison Barger isn’t far behind. And Alejandro Kirk should only be another couple of weeks after that.

This year, we have scored 214 runs, 7 more than at this point last year.

On the pitching side, we’ve allowed 220 runs this year and 233 last year. So again, pretty close.

Last year was amazing. Thinking it will happen again is very hopeful. I mean, a Wild Card Spot wouldn’t surprise me at all. But finishing first again. That’s a tough road.

And, of course, last year in the second half, we didn’t have many major injuries. It is looking like we got off lucky yesterday. As long as the X-rays are right, Vlad shouldn’t be missing much time (I’d likely give him today off), and it doesn’t look like Dylan Cease will miss any starts. But injuries do happen.

And, the team has to get something out of the right-handed hitting platoon players.

• Myles Straw has an 86 OPS+ on the season, but over his last 15 games, he’s hitting a big .083/.154/.083, and that’s with him hitting with the platoon advantage most of the time.
• Lenyn Sosa, well, you know, is hitting .189/.187/.284. While I think it is rather impressive that he’s managed to keep his OBP below his BA, something has got to give soon.
• Davis Schneider is hitting .127/.295/.211 with just one home run this year. I continuously think he’s going to get the bat going, but it hasn’t happened yet. In fact, he is getting worse, .088/.262/.118 over his last 19 games (arbitrary end points and all).

I like platooning. Lefty batters have a hard time with lefty pitchers. Someone asked why RHB don’t have as much trouble with RHP, and the simple answer is that roughly 75% of pitchers are right-handed. If a right-handed batter doesn’t learn to hit them, he doesn’t make it through the minor leagues (odds are he doesn’t get to the minor leagues). And, the RHB get a lot more practice against RHP than lefties do against lefties. Bendy things are easier to hit when they are coming toward you than when they are going away. And bendy things going away from you can miss by more than bendy things coming in. Plus, there is a lot more room to miss out the outside of the plate. Last night, Daulton Varsho struck out on a pitch that would have hit a RHB. If a right-handed hitter were at the plate, Gregory Soto would have had to be more careful with that pitch.

I also like platooning because it gives players a rest. Keeps them fresh. Baseball teams don’t get many off days, and when they do, they are often travelling. Some writers put it like this: Have you ever come home on a Friday evening and just collapsed into bed? It can be a long time between Friday evenings (off days). And, they don’t often get a whole weekend off. A day off can be a great mental break (he says, looking forward to a couple of days of biking tomorrow and Wednesday).

Anyway…..this was going to be very short, with a poll….