Author: MLB Baseball News, Scores, Standings, Rumors, Fantasy Games

TV: NESN

First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

The Red Sox and Braves will compete in the rubber match of their three-game series on Thursday at Fenway Park.

Payton Tolle and Chris Sale will be the men tasked with getting the job done.

I don’t have to tell you guys just how fun this matchup could be, with the former riding an incredible streak of four consecutive quality starts into the outing, while the latter has allowed six total earned runs across his last seven starts. Tolle and Sale both had an opportunity to meet each other on Wednesday.

Andruw Monasterio, Carlos Narváez, and Caleb Durbin will slot back into the lineup, with the former getting the start as the designated hitter over Masataka Yoshida. Narváez will return behind the dish, while Durbin plays third base.

Sandy León and Dom Smith will join their starting pitcher as former members of the Red Sox to return to Fenway Park.

I’ll be betting the under on total runs and over on total strikeouts, in case you were wondering…

As we all know, the Nationals have surprisingly played winning baseball in the first two months of the season, with a 29-28 record. However, the winning has not just been taking place at the MLB level. Nats minor league teams are winning more than ever, and the Rochester Red Wings are the hottest of the bunch.

The Red Wings are on a wild 10 game winning streak, and have won 15 out of their last 16 games. That 10 game winning streak is the longest in Rochester history since 1992. Obviously, this is long before they were a Nats affiliate. Like the big league club, the Red Wings are winning with a deep lineup and solid pitching.

Manager Matt LeCroy really has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. In the last game, the Red Wings lineup featured Christian Franklin, Harry Ford, Abimelec Ortiz, Brady House, Joey Wiemer and Riley Adams. They also had Yohandy Morales, Robert Hassell and Seaver King on the bench. This is the deepest core of hitters I have ever seen the Nats have in AAA. There may not be a mega star like in 2024 when they had James Wood, but there are a lot of solid ball players here.

During this winning streak, Abimelec Ortiz has been putting the offense on his back. He has 7 home runs and 20 RBI’s in his last six games. Ortiz, who the Nats acquired in the MacKenzie Gore trade, was doing a nice job getting on base at the beginning of the year, but was not showing his signature power. That power has arrived, and he is putting on an absolute show.

He has put up insane numbers in May, and as you can see, the underlying numbers back it up. Ortiz is already on the 40 man roster, so a big league call up should come before too long. The Nats could make a spot for him by DFA’ing Jose Tena or trading Luis Garcia Jr. at the deadline. Ortiz is an absolute masher, and he is ready for the big leagues.

While Ortiz doesn’t provide much value in the field or on the bases, the kid can hit. He is also able to hit righties and lefties. In fact, his OPS is higher against lefties, and he has hit 4 of his 10 homers against southpaws, despite having far fewer at bats against them. Maybe, he is just a platoon masher, but he has the chance to hit against righties and lefties.

Another corner infielder who is red hot for the Red Wings is Yohandy Morales. He is cut from a similar cloth as Ortiz. Both are large men who hit the ball very hard. Morales hits more ground balls and low liners, which has resulted in a higher average. This season, Yohandy Morales is hitting .355 in 172 at bats with an OPS over 1.000. Morales has the ability to play first and third base as well. There are holes in his profile that we will discuss, but his numbers are making him tough to leave in AAA.

One might wonder why Paul Toboni has not called up Morales. In my opinion, the biggest reason is some of his under the hood data. Morales’ swing and miss concerns, combined with his nearly 55% ground ball rate raise some red flags. Players with this profile tend to struggle in the big leagues. However, Morales has earned the opportunity to see if his approach can work.

He would easily be an upgrade over Andres Chaparro as the right handed platoon bat at first base. However, I think the Nats don’t want to call up Morales and then have him on the bench for an extended period. With Curtis Mead locking down the third base spot for now, I am curious to see what the Nats do with Morales. He deserves a chance at the big leagues, but there is clearly some hesitation from this front office.

The last player carrying this Red Wings offense right now just got to the level. That would be the 2024 first round pick Seaver King. After a red hot start in AA, King was recently promoted to Triple-A. He has kept hitting at the new level. In six games, King is hitting .391 with a 1.140 OPS. He also hit his first AAA home run a few days ago.

The Nats have been playing King at both shortstop and second base. King playing some second base intrigues me because that position is a big need for the Nats. Nasim Nunez does a lot of really nice things, but he can’t hit. Even as he is adjusting to the big leagues, King would be an offensive upgrade over Nunez and probably Jorbit Vivas too. The question is whether the Nats front office wants to call him up quickly.

There is an argument to be made that King could use time to mature in AAA. He had a really rough season in 2025, so you want to make sure he is fully ready to go once he hits the big league level. There is also a looming lockout coming, and King would not be able to play games if he is added to the 40 man roster. However, if he stays red hot for a few more weeks and Nunez is still feeble at the plate, he may force the Nats hand.

Overall, it is a great time to be a Rochester Red Wings fan. You have these three big bats, along with some other guys too. Brady House has looked good since getting to AAA, Harry Ford is heating up after an ice cold start and the pitching staff has some exciting names like Jackson Kent and Luis Perales. The Nats stock as an organization is shooting up, and it is not just because of the success at the big league level. Teams like the Fred Nats and the Red Wings are giving fans a glimpse into a very bright future.

If the White Sox aren’t all exhausted from running around the bases so much in last night’s 15-2 lambasting of the Twins, they’ve got an excellent chance to make it three out of four for the Minnesota visit today.

Not only are the Chicago bats hot — okay, just for one game so far, but hot has to start somewhere — but a Twins offense that would have had to work its way up to feeble against lesser Sox starters has the problem of facing Davis Martin and his 2.04 ERA while themselves holding what will be pretty much a bullpen game.

Acting as an opener+ for the Twins will be lefty Kendry Rojas, who went four innings of two-hit shutout ball against the Astros the other time he started a game this season. The rookie has been excellent in limited action, with a 1.26 ERA and 14 K’s in 14 1/3 innings, but with a wildness problem — 10 walks, though just one in each of his last two appearances.

With a southpaw on the mound, Will Venable moved Chase Meidroth, who hit a grand slam in last night’s laugher, up to the leadoff spot.

Martin, who had his only bad start of the season against the Giants last time out — four earned runs in 5 2/3 — faces a Twins lineup that has only produced five runs in regulation in the series so far.

First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 Central on a beautiful day for baseball, 62 degrees and mostly sunny at game time, with wind a possible factor, gusting to 21 from left to right. Usual broadcast suspects.

Well, he did it again.

Cristopher Sánchez blanked another team, this time the San Diego Padres, for seven innings on Wednesday at Petco Park. He allowed six hits, no walks and struck out nine in the Phils’ 3-0, series-sweeping victory.

It was the fifth straight start in which he did not allow a run, a streak of 44.2 scoreless innings, all coming in the month of May. Grover Cleveland Alexander, a Hall of Famer whose jersey is retired by the team, previously held the record of 41 straight scoreless innings, done in 1911.

No one, not a single soul, over the course of 115 years was able to top Alexander’s mark until Cristopher Sánchez did it on Wednesday out in California.

“The Sánchize.”

We have fought two World Wars, one Cold War, been through a Great Depression, put men on the moon, watched rock ‘n roll rise and die, and created a world in which computers may someday soon rule us all during that time frame.

A lot of extremely talented pitchers have come and gone through Philadelphia in those 115 years. Four different pitchers have won seven Cy Young Awards, and dozens of others have come really close.

Steve Carlton. Roy Halladay. Curt Schilling. Cole Hamels. Zack Wheeler. Cliff Lee. Robin Roberts. Jim Bunning. Chris Short. Aaron Nola. Curt Simmons.

None of them did what Sánchez has done.

And is still doing.

His 44.2 straight scoreless innings ranks 11th all-time in MLB history. He is 16.2 innings away from breaking Orel Hershiser’s all-time record of 59. It’s also the third-longest scoreless inning streak by a left-handed pitcher in MLB history, and he’s just three innings away from surpassing Carl Hubbell’s 45.1. He’s the first pitcher in Phillies history to have five straight starts of seven or more innings. Only Don Drysdale (1968) and Hershiser (1988) reached six.

Sanchez’ season ERA stands at 1.47. He leads all MLB starters in fWAR (3.3). Only six pitchers are over 2.0. His rise from a AAAA/No. 5 fringe starter to the best left-handed pitcher in baseball is unprecedented in the history of the Phillies.

And although the competition is fierce, Sanchez should be the favorite to win NL Pitcher of the Month for May.

Only one of those pitchers didn’t give up a single run all month. And, Sánchez has been piling up strikeouts, giving up no walks, and dominating on another level.

• He joins Hershiser as the only pitchers to go an entire calendar month without allowing a run since 1913 (minimum 30 IP).
• Sánchez is the only MLB pitcher in the modern era with 40+ strikeouts and no runs allowed in a calendar month.
• He’s one of only three pitchers in MLB history to have a month in which he pitched at least 39 innings without giving up a run, joining Hershiser and Doc Gooden.
• He has the most strikeouts of any pitcher during a 5-start span in which he allowed zero runs (47). The next closest is 2007 Brandon Webb, and 1968 Bob Gibson and Don Drysdale (35).

Now, there were a few instances in Wednesday’s 3-0 victory over San Diego where it looked like the Padres might break through.

Some of those swings were scary.

It’s also fair to wonder if this is the greatest single month any Phillies player has had, offensively or defensively. In terms of pitching, Cliff Lee’s iconic 2011 month of June has often been cited as the greatest single month of pitching in franchise history. Sánchez just topped it.

Offensively, one could argue Ryan Howard’s August of 2006 was superior. He tied the franchise record (Cy Williams) for most home runs in a calendar month (14), totaled 41 RBIs and hit .348/.464/.750 with a 1.214 OPS. He followed that up with a September in which he hit 9 bombs, knocked in 21 runs, and put up an even better slash line: .385/.562/.750, 1.312 OPS.

That’s a coin flip.

What’s next? In order to keep the streak going, he’ll have to go up against most of the same hitters he faced on Wednesday when the Padres visit Citizens Bank Park next week.

No one knows how long he’ll be able to keep this going. But for one afternoon, Phils fans got to experience a little bit of electricity watching The Sánchize make history.

First Pitch (CT):1:10 PM
TV: Twins.TV
Radio: TIBN/830 WCCO/102.9 The Wolf /Audacy App
Know Yo’ Foe: South Side Sox

This series has had everything. A nail-biting loss, a nail-biting win, a blowout loss. Let’s hope the pattern keeps up this afternoon and the Twins get a blowout win.

Taj Bradley had his start bumped a day in his return from the IL, so it will be rookie left-hander Kendry Rojas on the mound for the Twins. Rojas has showcased his effectively wild tendencies with electric stuff complimented by spotty command, but calling his potential tantalizing would be an understatement. The rook is off to a strong start with a 1.26 ERA, but will still be in the hybrid starter role and limited to 50-60 pitches. The Twins have quite a few pitchers on that same schedule between Rojas, Simeon Woods Richardson, Travis Adams, and Andrew Morris, though the latter’s outings have been getting shorter and shorter in his move to higher leverage spots.

Minnesota will be facing Davis Martin, the White Sox starter off to a blistering start. Martin had a solid, if unspectacular, first three seasons in Chicago but has ratcheted things up this year. He has a 2.04 ERA/2.30 FIP and 66 strikeouts in 61.2 innings this season. Martin’s 2.3 fWAR is 6th in the entire AL and second among pitchers. Even with some expected regression factored in, Martin looks like a surefire All-Star.

Lineups

When the Yankees acquired David Bednar from the Pittsburgh Pirates at last season’s Trade Deadline, he almost immediately stabilized the back end of the bullpen. After his first disastrous appearance with the team against the Marlins in early August, he allowed just 4 runs in 23 innings, striking out 33 and walking only 9, as “the Renegade” seized the closer’s role by the horns. Sure, the bullpen still wound up a block of Swiss cheese, but hey, it wasn’t his fault.

This year, though, the situation is very much different. While it would be unfair to pin the entire bullpen’s struggles on Bednar, the closer certainly shoulders some of the blame. Heading into action last night, he had a 4.70 ERA (89 ERA+), having allowed 15 runs (12 earned) in 23 innings; his K% is a career-low 26.4 percent (ignoring his four-game cameo in 2020), while his walk rate has inched up to 9.4 percent after a career-best 7.6 percent last season. He’s allowed at least one run in 11 of his 23 appearances this season, and two or more hits in eight of them.

Bednar has been able to lock down his share of leads — his 12 saves are tied for sixth in baseball — but even when he’s kept the opposition off the board, he’s needed to put on his emotional support baserunners first before he locks in. Meanwhile, his meltdowns have been big and loud, and were a major contributor to the oft-cited “June Swoon, but make it May” that dogged the Yanks until this week in Kansas City.

So how concerned should we be? Is this simply a cold stretch by a reliever, or are we looking at another Devin Williams situation on our hands? Well…it’s complicated.

As can be seen here, Statcast is overall very much a fan of what Bednar has been doing. While I’m sure everybody involved would like to see that walk rate and that hard-hit rate down, a 97th-percentile ground-ball percentage is exactly what the Yankees are looking for out of their relievers; after all, you can’t take advantage of the Short Porch on a worm-burner to second. When we dive into Bednar’s individual offerings, however, we see where the problems begin to emerge.

Bednar is a three-pitch pitcher*, throwing a four-seamer, a curveball, and a splitter. Whereas he was once overwhelmingly fastball-dominant — from 2021 through 2024, he threw the four-seamer more than 54 percent of the time — he has settled into a much more even three-pitch mix over the past two years. This year, he still throws his fastball the most (39.4 percent), but his splitter is a close second at 34.2 percent and he throws his curveball a touch over a quarter of the time (26.4 percent).

*He technically threw one sinker in 2023 and one cutter in 2019, but I’m willing to bet those were fastballs that wound up moving a bit too much, so they can be safely ignored.

Last season, Bednar found success with all three pitches, with both his curveball and splitter serving as very effective out pitches, generating whiffs roughly 40 percent of the time and soft contact when they did manage to hit it. 2026 has been a very different story. Opposing hitters have crushed the fastball and the curveball, with batters hitting .419 with a .613 slugging percentage against the former, and .412 and .765 against the latter. And of course, one particularly awful Uncle Charlie got annihilated by Tyrone Taylor on May 17th, leading to a galling Subway Series loss at the hands of a cellar-dwelling Mets team. It was Bednar’s second blown save of the road trip.

Only Bednar’s splitter has maintained its effectiveness from last season, as hitters have batted just .130 and posted a .152 slugging percentage against it.

When it comes to the fastball, the Statcast data suggests that we shouldn’t be too concerned. The pitch has an xBA of .230 and an xSLG of .327: so long as his defense doesn’t continue to let him down—much like Clay Holmes in 2024, it feels that the infield forgets how to play defense when Bednar is pitching—we should see better results from his fastball.

On the other hand, Bednar has been having some trouble throwing the curveball with consistency. Despite the pitch having the lowest exit velocity against of the three (82.1 mph), it is the pitch that hitters have been able to square up most consistency, as he has surrendered seven hits, including both of his home runs, on curveballs like the one above to Taylor. Furthermore, the batted-ball data does not suggest regression to the mean should be expected, as the xBA and xSLG of .368 and .626 are better than the actual numbers mentioned above, but not all that much better.

In order for Bednar to be the dominant closer he was down the stretch last season, the Yankees will need to figure out what exactly has been wrong with his curveball. In the meantime, however, the solution is simple: focus on the splitter. Despite occasional bouts of wildness, Fernando Cruz has shown just how useful a fastball/splitter pitcher can be out of the bullpen, and it seems like Bednar and pitching coach Matt Blake may have been taking notes. Bednar has increasingly sidelined his curveball in favor of throwing his splitter more over the last few outings, to great success. Against the Rays on the 22nd, he threw just two curves, leaning on his splitter as he struck out three of the four Tampa Bay batters he faced.

This past Monday, meanwhile, Bednar abandoned the curveball entirely, using the fastball and splitter evenly against Kansas City in one of his most stress-free outings of the season.

Time will tell if this was just a small blip in the data, or if Bednar will truly be leaning more heavily on his splitter going forward. In either case, it’s something to keep an eye out going forward — and if it works, well, it’ll go a long way towards getting the bullpen back on track.

Detroit Tigers (22-34) vs. Los Angeles Angels (21-35)

Time/Place: 1:10 p.m., Comerica Park
SB Nation Site: Halos Heaven
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup: RHP Jack Flaherty (0-6, 5.94 ERA) vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-1, 10.61 ERA)

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Baltimore Orioles starter Chris Bassitt has been crushed by left-handed hitters this season, and the Toronto Blue Jays’ lefty-heavy lineup is positioned to exploit that weakness again tonight in Baltimore.

That sets up well for Bassitt to go Over his 2.5 earned runs total tonight, which is my best bet for my Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, May 28.

Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions

Blue Jays vs Orioles best bet: Chris Bassitt Over 2.5 earned runs (+125)

Chris Bassitt’s transition to the Baltimore Orioles has been disastrous. 

The veteran righty owns a 5.51 ERA through his first 10 outings in orange, while ranking in the 9th percentile in opponent xBA.

Opponents are consistently squaring Bassitt up this season as he owns a .311 opponent batting average, while exceeding tonight’s earned runs total in four of his last six starts. 

Additionally, the Toronto Blue Jays feature a heavy left-handed-hitting lineup that matches up well against Bassitt, who owns a .917 opponent OPS against lefties this season.

COVERS INTEL: Bassitt owns a 37% hard-hit rate.

Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)

Daulton Varsho profiles as a strong contender to punish Bassitt today as a left-handed slugger who crushes the sinker. As mentioned before, Bassitt owns a .917 OSP against lefties this year, and the sinker-ball in particular has been victimized.

Despite owning a .373 average on the pitch, Bassitt throws it more than any other pitch in his arsenal 

This is where Varsho profiles well, owning a .394 average against the sinker with a 50% hard hit rate. So I'll take Over 0.5 hits for Varsho tonight. 

I’ll also target Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits. The Jays' third baseman has crushed the sinker as well, owning a .444 average with a 62% hard-hit rate against the pitch. 

Blue Jays vs Orioles SGP

• Chris Bassitt Over 2.5 earned runs
• Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits

Blue Jays vs Orioles home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+550)

I'll make this wager a half unit, considering Bassitt has done a solid job of keeping the ball in the yard despite the rest of his struggles.

Kazuma Okamoto showed earlier in the season his homers can come in bunches, and after a go-ahead home run Wednesday afternoon, I'm banking on another long ball tonight in Baltimore. 

Bassitt is throwing the sinker at a 48% rate to right-handed hitters, which plays to Okamoto's strengths. The Jays slugger owns a .506 slugging percentage and a 62% hard-hit rate against it. 

Blue Jays vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Baltimore -130
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-175) | Baltimore -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Blue Jays vs Orioles trend

The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Orioles and game info

Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Orioles weather

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Ryan Ward had to wait seven years for his first career call-up to the big leagues.

This time, he’s returning less than six weeks later.

With Teoscar Hernández set to go on the injured list with a hamstring strain he sustained Wednesday night, the Dodgers on Thursday decided to call Ward back up to the majors as his replacement, a source with knowledge of the situation confirmed to The California Post.

The move will mark Ward’s second time playing in the majors this year, after making his long-awaited MLB debut on April 19 in Colorado, when he recorded two hits and an RBI while filling in for Freddie Freeman during his absence on the paternity list.

Ward, 28, is a left-handed slugger who should give the Dodgers an option for what will now be a platoon in left field.

Alex Call figures to be the primary right-handed option there, having hit .294 in a reserve role this season. Ward and Hyeseong Kim figure to get the left-handed portion of at-bats in that equation.

Ward can also play first base if needed.

The Athletic earlier reported the news of his call-up on Thursday morning.

The reigning MVP of the triple-A Pacific Coast League, Ward has regressed somewhat in 2026, batting just .254 with six home runs and 31 RBIs in 47 games with the club’s Oklahoma City affiliate.

However, he has continued to control the strike zone (34 walks, 43 strikeouts), is getting on base at a .379 clip, and now has at least a small taste of MLB experience to fall back on.

He’ll likely stay in the majors this time until either Hernández (who will be out at least a couple weeks) or Tommy Edman (who is just starting a multi-week rehab assignment in triple-A coming off ankle surgery this winter) returns to the field.

The Dodgers did have other options to consider, from breakout prospect James Tibbs III to three-year MLB veteran utility man Tyler Fitzgerald.

But Ward, after his years of work to climb the minor-league ladder, has become a franchise favorite.

And this role –– which is still likely to include somewhat sporadic at-bats over only a temporary period –– suited his skill set and development arc best.

Anyone in the mood for some good injury news? While he still has yet to face living pitching, Roman Anthony is finally swinging a bat without pain the injured hand that has kept him out for most of this month. Granted, these are “dry swings,” which are every bit as fun and exciting as dry weddings, but he’s going to attempt to hit an actual baseball off a tee today. Garrett Crochet, meanwhile, threw live batting practice on Tuesday and will do so again next week. He hopes to be able to return to the big league club without going on a rehab assignment. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

But because the universe requires balance, we have some potentially bad injury news. Garrett Whitlock slipped on the muddy Fenway mound over the weekend and subsequently had his worst appearance of the season. He hyperextended his plant leg and received an painkilling injection. No word yet on whether he’ll avoid an IL stint. (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

Before the season, if someone had told you that Mickey Gasper was going to get regular playing time, you probably would’ve assumed there’d been some kind of IL stint for either Carlos Narvaez or Connor Wong, too. But Gasper, along with Nick Sogard and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, is quickly becoming a favorite of Chad Tracy. “They take good at-bats,” the interim boss said. “You can see when they’re in there and when you’re watching, they know what a strike is, they know what a ball is, they’ll go deep in the count, they get into hitters’ counts, they’ll use the off-side of the field. That sparks things when people see that.” (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)

Last night, Sogard didn’t just help the team by getting into a hitters count, he also had a sacrifice bunt. Of the eight sac bunts the Sox have laid down this year, six of them have come since Tracy took over as he searches for ways to kick-start the offense. (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

And make no mistake: the offense desperately needs something to get it going, as it is potentially the worst Red Sox offense many of us have ever seen. (Chad Finn, Boston Globe)

Could Franklin Arias be a part of the offense at some point this season? That seemed like a big-time long shot just a few months ago, but the shortstop continues to impress. He’s impressing so much that one prominent prospect evaluator now has him as the third-best prospect in all of baseball, with Anthony Eyanson coming in at number 21. (Keith Law, The Athletic)

Payton Tolle and Connelly Early are no longer eligible for Law’s prospect rankings, which is certainly fitting in the case of Early, who looks like a vet on the mound. “After what he did last year for us in the playoffs, I feel like he had to grow up pretty quick,” Jarren Duran said. “Some of us forget he’s a rookie and he’s doing the things that he’s doing.” (Christopher Smith, MassLive)

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The Chicago Cubs come in as underdogs against Paul Skenes and his Pittsburgh Pirates on tonight.

However, my Cubs vs. Pirates predictions expect them to pull off the upset, with the reigning Cy young winner not playing at his best lately.

Read on to get my free MLB picks for Thursday, May 28.

Who will win Cubs vs Pirates today: Cubs moneyline (+146)

Paul Skenes is coming off the roughest two-game stretch of his young career, allowing nine earned runs in 10 innings of work in two losses for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Skenes has seen opponents square up more of his pitches than ever, with 32.7% of batted balls landing in the Launch Angle Sweet Spot this season.

The Chicago Cubs have been incredibly streaky this year, but are a fundamentally strong offensive squad, averaging 4.73 runs per game and posting a .725 OPS.

I’m backing Chicago to win this game as long as I can get a premium of +140 or more.

COVERS INTEL: The Cubs are raking against Skenes’ bread-and-butter pitch – the four-seam fastball – pulling it in the air 21.3% of the time against right-handed pitchers.

Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-110)

Even when Skenes struggles, it hasn’t been enough to hit the Over. The Pirates have played to totals of seven runs or less in five of his last six starts, as their ace keeps them in games even when the offense flounders.

While Colin Rea (4-3, 4.83 ERA) has struggled a bit this year, he has put up a strong 32.2% chase rate, which will play well against a Pirates team that ranks third-worst in whiff percentage this year at 27.5%.

I’m taking the Under at 7.5 runs if we can get the standard -110 odds or better.

Cubs vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Chicago +146 | Pittsburgh -161
• Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-142) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+129)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-103) | Under 7.5 (-112)

Cubs vs Pirates trend

The Pirates have hit the Under in each of Skenes’ last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.

How to watch Cubs vs Pirates and game info

Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries

Cubs vs Pirates weather

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I missed this yesterday (being fair, I haven’t turned on the computer for two days, but I did ride my bike 100 very hill kilometers over the last couple of days).

Charles McAdoo will be getting the call-up today. He is hitting .250/.356/.436 with 6 home runs, 28 walks, 40 strikeouts and 6 stolen bases with the Bisons.

McAdoo was on our ‘just missed out list’ in this year’s top 40 prospects. Tom M wrote:

Charles McAdoo was the last cut from out list. The trade return for Isiah Kiner-Falefa repeated AA last year with mixed results. He hit for some power but struck out too much (28%). That’s basically McAdoo’s game. He swings hard, with a bat path geared to maximize fly balls at the expense of contact. It might work, because he has plus power and enough feel for the barrel to make acceptable if below average contact rates, but it’s a narrow path. There will also be a lot of pressure on the bat, because he’s a below average defender at third base and a below average runner, so first base might be the ultimate destination.

Someone (Lenyn Sosa) will have be be removed from the active roster and the 40-man roster. Sosa has been just terrible for the Jays (he did finally take a walk Monday). No one is going to miss his .480 OPS. He hit 22 home runs last year, and the team was hoping that power would show up. It didn’t.

Also yesterday, the Jays traded for Connor Seabold from the Tigers. Juanmi Vasquez is going to the Tigers. Vasquez has a 5.87 ERA for the Vancouver Canadians. In 23 innings. he has 16 walks and 35 strikeouts.

Seabold has pitched parts of five seasons in the MLB, and has a 7.28 ERA in 134.1 innings, with 49 walks and 110 strikeouts. He’s made 19 starts and 32 relief appearances.

He throws a fastball in the 93 mph range, a change-up, a slider and curve ball.

Jose Berrios was moved to the 60-day DL to make room.

Beyond all that:

• Austin Voth was called up to the Jays yesterday. He pitched in a game in April for the Jays, 2.2 innings allowing 1 earned, with 3 hits, a walks and a strikeout.
• Tanner Andrews was optioned to Buffalo.
• Alejandro Kirk was moved to the 60-day IL.

Keith Law of The Athletic released his mid-season Top 50 overall prospect list this morning, and by his count the Cincinnati Reds have a different top prospect in their system than they did on Opening Day.

On the heels of his brilliant start to the AAA season, infielder Edwin Arroyo landed all the way at #23 overall on Law’s list, even outranking stud catching prospect Alfredo Duno (who checked in at #35 overall). Law hails Arroyo as ‘a natural shortstop,’ but thinks he has the chops to ‘be plus at second and the bat will play anywhere,’ which is a pretty ringing endorsement of a guy who fell completely off any and all Top 100 overall lists after his powerless 2025 season.

Of course, that came on the heels of a totally lost 2024 season in which he underwent major shoulder surgery, and last season drew into question whether he’d ever get his swing back. So far at AAA in 2026, the swing has looked more than fine, as Arroyo is hittin g.335/.397/.576 with 10 homers, 9 doubles, and 5 triples across 50 games for Louisville.

Keep in mind that Arroyo isn’t just some flash in the pan. Now 22, he once checked 36th overall on Kiley McDaniel’s Top 50 prospects during the middle of the 2022 season, with the ESPN analyst even calling him the ‘headliner’ of the trade that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle and also brought back Noelvi Marte. That list had him ahead of the likes of Andy Pages, Colton Cowser, Ezequiel Tovar, Brett Baty, and Sal Frelick, among others, and slotted him just behind the likes of Pete Crow-Armstrong (#31) and Jackson Holliday (#30).

It remains unclear the most direct path to the big leagues for Arroyo, as he’s obviously blocked at his primary position of shortstop by All Star Elly De La Cruz. Matt McLain, despite still not hitting three years after his breakout, seems locked in at 2B and has the trust of manager Terry Francona, while Sal Stewart, Eugenio Suarez, and even Ke’Bryan Hayes will continue to dominate looks at 3B for the remainder of this season. After 2026, though, Suarez will be a free agent and the Hayes conundrum must be addressed, since it’s clear that Arroyo is a) fully healthy again and b) more than deserving of a shot at a regular infield role going forward.

Today, we finish up our scouting of the Guardians’ High-A affiliate, the Lake County Captains!

In case you missed it, you can check out my scouting reports on Captains’ pitchers here and Captains’ hitters here.

Welcome back to the final installment, where I take off my blindfold and compare my own rankings to other outlets. This portion is mostly a sanity check: I am aware of all these publications, and I am a semi-regular reader of many. However, I intentionally have not reviewed prospect rankings in anticipation of making something like this.

As a reminder, many of these players are not going to be assessed by the baseball media. Amateur/minor league scouting can be incredibly resource-intensive, and most outlets are covering 30 teams over their staff. They have good grips on the systems they cover, but there still needs to be some selectivity in who gets the write-ups. 

The List as of the 5/19/2026 Roster: Ratings by FV

Future value is used by prospect writers to try to project what a player can be. This list is still an effort to rank each player in descending order based on my evaluation of that player. To be blunt: This roster is one of the most talented Lake County squads I have seen in some time with respect to depth. It’s not quite as good as the playoff roster from 2024 that featured Travis Bazzana, Ralphy Velazquez, and Angel Genao, but a larger group of these players seem to have a legitimate chance to be big-league players.

Also, feel free to roast this! The list was not in mind when I set out to do this, and there will be some big breaks in consensus. We will not complain about the traffic. After I share my list, you will also see the rankings for each prospect from Baseball America, Fangraphs, and MLB Pipeline. Baseball America provides grades adjusted for risk- I have given the adjusted grade because I am also trying to assess risk with my own grades.

1. Braylon Doughty, RHP: 50
2. Dean Curley, SS: 45+
3. Aaron Walton, OF: 45+
4. Jace LaViolette, OF: 40++
5. Franklin Gomez, LHP: 40+
6. Luke Hill, SS: 40+
7. Bennett Thompson, C: 40+
8. Rafe Schlesinger, LHP: 35+
9. Nolan Schubart, 1B: 35++
10. Ryan Cesarini, OF: 35+
11. Kendeglys Virguez, RHP: 35+
12. Cam Schuelke, RHP: 35+
13. Melkis Hernandez, LHP: 35
14. Jogly Garcia, RHP: 35
15. Donovan Zsak, LHP: 30+
16. Jackson Humphries, LHP: 30+
17. Logan McGuire, RHP: 30+
18. Tommy Hawke, OF/2B: 30+
19. Logun Clark, C: 30+
20. Izaak Martinez, LHP: 30
21. Garrett Howe, 2B: 30
22. Maick Collado, 3B: 30
23. Esteban Gonzalez, OF: 30
24. Cam Walty, RHP: 30
25. Xavier Martinez, RHP: 30
26. Michael Kennedy, LHP: 25+
27. Luis Flores, LHP: 25+
28. Kevin Rivas, C: 25
29. Jeffrey Mercedes, 2B: 25

Some takeaways:

I am very low on Jackson Humphries relative to consensus. This is primarily because command and control are fickle. Even with that in mind, it would be correct to say he does not surrender many hits, and he works out of his own jams consistently. I still worry about ranking him higher because I do not trust that he will limit his hits the same way when he figures out how to keep the ball in the zone.

Fangraphs loves Jogly Garcia. At a time last season, Garcia was also a top 30 on Pipeline, but their preseason revision dropped him out in favor of Luke Hill, which is looking like a good move.

Franklin Gomez is another Fangraphs darling, but the early returns will likely have him considered for re-rankings, even for post-draft assignments. His results are coming in a Midwest League that is extremely offense-oriented.

Dean Curley is polarizing, and each of these outlets have concerns over whether he can stay at shortstop. I believe he can play shortstop, at least in the short-term as a young player, and that is why he is ranked ahead of Aaron Walton.

Aaron Walton helium, if it ever comes, will probably be reflected in organization re-ranks. With that said, BA has already done theirs, and Walton did not move much, reflecting the idea that college hitters should be performing well at High-A.

A final note: my opinion of these players and their potential is not meant to disparage them in any way. Baseball is incredibly hard. Writing about what you see, in contrast, is much easier. Any one of these guys can prove me wrong, and it would be a delight- we all want to see people figure it out and succeed. See: This 2011 article describing Corey Kluber (accurately) as a failing, old starting pitcher prospect.

Now, I take off my blindfold and compare my own rankings to other outlets. This portion is mostly a sanity check: I am aware of all these publications, and I am a semi-regular reader of many. However, I intentionally have not reviewed prospect rankings in anticipation of making something like this.

Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. Thanks for reading!

(Editor’s Note: Thank you SO much to Mike for his time and effort compiling this insight into a great team in our system!)