Author: MLB Baseball News, Scores, Standings, Rumors, Fantasy Games

We're now a full five weeks into the fantasy baseball season, and we're all starting to get a much clearer sense of just how good (or bad) our teams may be. More stats have started to stabilize, top prospects have been called up, and position battles have been won, so it becomes a little harder to find those impactful players on the waiver wire.

Yet, it's still early enough in the season that there are plenty of talented hitters mired in long slumps or hitters off to hot starts who are being written off as a "fluke" by the majority of fantasy managers. My goal for today is to try and see if we can come up with a way to determine who our true targets should be and who is just experiencing a hot month.

For that, we're going to turn to a set of stats I think are often overlooked: swing rates and contact rates.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Targets - Rationale

The rationale behind focusing on these stats is pretty simple. Hitters who make the most valuable contact are the ones who produce the most fantasy value (duh). But making the most valuable contact doesn't always come from barrel rates or exit velocities. Oftentimes, the most valuable thing a hitter can do is swing at good pitches and not swing at bad ones.

It seems simple, but it bears itself out in the numbers and is something we often overlook. As you can see from the graphic put together by the awesome Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List (follow him here), the most impactful decision a hitter can make in terms of Run Value added is to simply not swing at a pitch that isn't a strike.

Pitcher List

That's a +4.8 Run Value on simply seeing a pitch outside of the strike zone and letting it go for a ball. No other swing decision even provides ANY level of positive run value. The next closest is seeing a pitch in the strike zone and deciding to swing, and even that creates -0.3 Run Value. Obviously, seeing a pitch in the strike zone and taking it and seeing a pitch out of the strike zone and swinging provide clear negative value, but look at that gap. There's an over 10-run value difference from when a hitter takes a ball versus when a hitter swings at a ball.

It should then go without saying that having hitters on your team who will NOT swing at a ball increases your chances of producing great fantasy value from your hitters. To help us find those hitters, I created a leaderboard of Overall Swing%, Zone Swing%, Zone Contact%, Chase% (or O-Swing%), and Overall Contact Rate. I then deleted anybody worse than league average in any of the metrics. That means we should have a leaderboard of only players who swing at the right pitches, swing at them often, and make a lot of contact on them.

That's a good list to be on.

However, I wanted to take it one step further. We know that swinging at strikes is good, but clearly, not good enough on its own since it still provides a -0.3 Run Value. To determine who is making the best decisions when they do swing at the zone, I also included Pitcher List's Zone Decision Value metric, another Kyle Bland stat that qualifies how valuable each hitter's swings in the zone are. Did you turn on a fastball on the inside half, or did you reach for a 2-0 slider on the outside corner? This metric qualifies the overall Run Value of each pitch in the given count and location and ascribes the hitter a Decision Value for his decision to swing at that pitch or not. By removing all hitters who had a below-average Zone Decision Value, that means I also eliminated hitters who swing a lot in the zone and make a lot of contact in the zone, but tend to swing at pitches that aren't really beneficial.

At the end, this should give us a list of hitters who swing at pitches in the zone that they can make meaningful contact on, swing at them often, and make a lot of contact on those pitches. Those should be hitters we want on our team. So who are they?

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Targets - Waivers

There are fewer hitters in baseball hotter than Jorge Polanco, and he's probably been scooped up in most places, but when I had him on the waiver wire article on Sunday, I got a lot of questions on Reddit about whether we should believe in what he's doing, so I'm keeping him in the waiver wire section for now. Polanco has the highest chase rate of any hitter on here, so that's something to watch, but it's right around league average, and he continues to make nearly 80% contact overall, so the approach is working for him. He's obviously not going to hit .389 or keep up with Aaron Judge when it comes to home run production, but Polanco is a good hitter who is feeling healthy and seeing the ball well right now.

You also know by now that Carson Kelly is off to a tremendous start, so it's not a shock that he's on a leaderboard that tries to highlight players with good process. Kelly is chasing out of the zone just 13% of the time, which is well down from his 23.7% career mark, and that's why his walk rate is an absurd 23%. He's also being more aggressive in the zone, but his Zone Decision Value, which is a Pitcher List metric that attributes run value to every swing decision made in the strike zone, is just league average. Kelly is also seeing fewer pitches in the strike zone than he ever has, which may explain his walk rate. This feels like a situation where pitchers will start to get more aggressive in how they attack Kelly, and then the regression will hit. Maybe not hit hard enough for you to want to drop him, but enough that he won't produce like one of the best catchers in the league.

Brandon Nimmo may have gotten scooped up in a lot of leagues after his 9 RBI game on Monday, but he was also one of the most dropped players in Yahoo formats over the weekend. Even after his huge game on Monday, he's hitting just .218/.261/.418 on the season, so there may still be some shallow leagues where he's out there. His 12.1% barrel rate is indicative of the type of contact he's making, and his .218 average comes with a .266 xBA. Buy into the approach and quality of contact here.

Wilyer Abreu doesn't get the respect he deserves in fantasy circles, and I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that he doesn't face left-handed pitching. That's also why he's on the waiver wire in more leagues than he should be, and unless you're in a full week lineup lock league, Abreu deserves to be rostered. He's on this list because his approach is really solid, and he scores a 128 on Pitcher List's Zone Decision Value chart, which is the best score of any hitter in this entire article. If somebody wants to write off his good numbers to the hot first week, go ahead and let them, and get Abreu on your team.

Max Kepler is in a similar spot, where he essentially only plays against right-handed pitching for the Phillies. I also don't love that Kepler is being more passive in the zone than he was last year, and also hitting the ball on the ground so often, with just a 33.3% fly ball rate. That being said, he's chasing out of the zone far less than last year and swinging and missing less overall. His 8.3% barrel rate isn't lighting up any leaderboards, but I think if he can reduce the groundball rate just a bit, we could see some strong summer production in that Philadelphia ballpark.

There's also a lot to like in what Victor Scott II is doing. His zone swing rate is one of the highest on this list, but his Zone Decision Value score is also in line with Francisco Lindor and Jorge Polanco, two players off to really good starts. My only issue with Scott right now is that he's raised his fly ball rate, and his 14.8-degree launch angle is too high for me. He's sporting just a 31% groundball rate right now, which is not ideal for a player with his speed. I like a lot of what he's doing in terms of his swing decisions, but I need him to focus more on line drives and hard groundballs, and I think we could see a strong stretch of production.

I know Joc Pederson and Miguel Vargas are hard to get behind as adds because their surface-level stats are so bad, and I get it. But perhaps you can just add them to your proverbial watch list, given his information. Both of them are swinging a lot in the zone and making a lot of contact in the zone. They're both well below league average when it comes to chase rate and have better than league average swinging strike rates as well. Additionally, both of them have solid, but not great, Zone Decision Value scores. Honestly, most things under the hood look pretty good for both of them, except that Vargas is being too passive right now. His Swing Aggression score, another Pitcher List metric, is the third-worst of any player on this list. Maybe you just decide to keep an eye on whether or not he raises his overall swing rate and try to buy in then, but Vargas has come up for me on a lot of lists that highlight players with good process, so I think there's something here.

I was of the mind that Gleyber Torres needed a fresh start away from the Yankees, and that could be the case. We've heard great things about his leadership in Detroit, and he's off to a really solid start to the season. He's chasing less outside the zone than he ever has and making more contact than he ever has, both of which are great. His 7.2% SwStr% is a career-best, but he's also swinging at the lowest rate he ever has in a full season. His swing aggression score is the worst of any player on this list, and while I know part of that is helping him to not chase bad pitches outside of the zone, I think he can afford to be a little more aggressive in the zone since his Zone Decision score is slightly below league average.

It should not be a shock to find Carlos Santana and JJ Bleday on a leaderboard about contact rate and swing decisions. Both of them have shown a consistent ability to command the strike zone and not get themselves out on bad decisions. However, neither one is producing great results so far this season. Santana's batted ball profile is similar to his career norms, but he's hitting the ball on the ground a bit more, and his contact rate is down despite not really chasing more out of the zone. Perhaps that's age catching up with him? Bleday is also hitting the ball on the ground 8% more than last year, which is the only difference I can spot. His swing decisions are still similar, and he's chasing less outside of the zone, but he's also putting the ball in play early in counts more often than last year, which is why his Zone Decision Value score is league average. Perhaps he needs to be more selective about what he swings at in the zone, and he'll need to do it fast because Denzel Clarke is having a good season at Triple-A.

Oswaldo Cabrera makes this list, but he's really only a deep league option because there is very little power and speed here. The plate discipline and swing decisions should keep his batting average solid, and he'll score some runs as the everyday third baseman in that lineup, but there's little else here.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Targets - Trade

Some of these guys are players it's going to be hard to trade for - like Francisco Lindor, Kyle Tucker, Cedric Mullins, William Contreras, and Matt Olson, but since they qualified, I wanted to make sure I at least kept their names on here.

Willy Adames is hitting just .212/.286/.305 on the season and just signed a big contract, so there were plenty of people projecting a bad year, which means more than a few would be willing to get rid of him in a trade. If we trust our leaderboard, he should be somebody we want to try and go get. However, I should note that he BARELY made it on the list. Technically, his swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is 0.1% too high, and his contact rate is 0.6% too low. However, those felt negligible enough to me that I decided to keep him on here. Especially since his SwStr% is actually 1.1% better than what he posted last year, and his contact rate would be the highest he's had since 2019. Adames is pulling the ball and hitting it in the air slightly less than last season, but maybe that's an adjustment to his new park. He's making more contact in the zone than he ever has and chasing less than he has since 2021. The issue here appears to be that his swing rate and zone swing rate, which are both better than league average, are still down from last year. He's being more passive than he was in his best seasons. Maybe it's him worrying about trying to do too much on his new team, but we'd like to see Adames get a bit more aggressive because the rest of his profile is very much in line with what we've seen in the past.

Dylan Crews is another hitter who technically had a contact rate that was too low and a SwStr% that was too high, but he's a young player who is currently on a hot streak, and his numbers over the last three weeks are much better than the numbers that kept him under the threshold, so I decided to allow him to stay. A young hitter who is not chasing out of the zone too much and is being aggressive in the zone while making lots of contact in the zone is a hitter we should want to get behind. Now, pitchers are aggressively attacking him in the zone, and not all of his decisions in the zone are good ones, but his 105 Zone Decision Value is above average. I think the approach we're seeing from Crews is good, and the 15.3% barrel rate supports that, but he simply needs to continue to adjust to MLB velocity and sequencing. I believe it will happen and maybe is already happening.

I'm surprised to see Marcus Semien and Alec Bohm on here, but here we are. At the time of my writing this, Semien is hitting .177 with a .493 OPS while Bohm is hitting .221 with a .526 OPS. All of that is gross. However, both of them are chasing about 28%, which is below the league average. They're both swinging about 49% of the time overall, which means they're not being too passive. Neither one has a below-average swinging strike rate, and Bohm's is at just 6%. They're swinging in the zone more frequently than league average and making more contact in the zone than league average, with Bohm sporting an 88% contact rate overall. All of that is stuff we should love. In fact, Semien has a 127 Zone Decision Value, which is second of any hitter on this sheet, behind only Wilyer Abreu. Semien also has a 9.3% barrel rate that would be the second-best mark of his career. Semien is 34 years old and is being challenged more in the zone than he ever has, but he's also seeing a 6% boost in sliders faced and is seeing fewer fastballs, so I don't think this is a velocity thing. Right now, I just don't see a reason why these guys are struggling as much as they are.

Jordan Westburg is a weird one to show up on here. I was a big fan of his coming into the season, but I think that March injury has been impacting him for a while now, and this trip to the IL for a hamstring injury could be just what he needs to let his body reset. His barrel rate is at 12.9%, he's chasing less out of the zone, making more contact in the zone, more contact overall, and dropping his swinging strike rate to 10.2%. The biggest change I see in his profile is that his pull rate is down 13%, so the exit velocities are way down, and the power hasn't been there. I really think the March "upper body" injury plays a big role in that, and I'd be looking to acquire Westburg while he's on the IL right now.

It's Thursday, May 1 and the Brewers (16-15) are in Chicago to take on the White Sox (7-23). Chad Patrick is slated to take the mound for Milwaukee against Sean Burke for Chicago.

Milwaukee scored three runs in the top of the 8th inning yesterday to beat Chicago, 6-4, to guarantee a winning series against the White Sox. The Brewers won Game 1, 7-2, so today Milwaukee goes for the sweep. Milwaukee has won three straight, while Chicago has lost three straight.

Let's dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two. We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game details & how to watch Brewers at White Sox

• Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
• Time: 2:10 PM EST
• Site: Rate Field
• City: Chicago, IL
• Network/Streaming: FDSNWI, CHSN

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Brewers at the White Sox

The latest odds as of Thursday:

• Moneyline: Brewers (-181), White Sox (+150)
• Spread:  Brewers -1.5
• Total: 8.0 runs

Probable starting pitchers for the Brewers at White Sox

• Pitching matchup for May 1, 2025: Chad Patrick vs. Sean Burke
  
  • Brewers: Chad Patrick, (1-2, 2.46 ERA)
    Last outing: 4.1 Innings Pitched, 2 Earned Runs Allowed, 4 Hits Allowed, 2 Walks, and 2 Strikeouts
  • White Sox: Sean Burke, (1-4, 6.00 ERA)
    Last outing: 5.1 Innings Pitched, 3 Earned Runs Allowed, 5 Hits Allowed, 2 Walks, and 5 Strikeouts

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Brewers and the White Sox

Rotoworld Best Bet

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Brewers -1.5:

"If you're looking for +100 or better plays today, Milwaukee would be a lean of mine. The Brewers have won three straight, while the White Sox dropped three consecutive games and this is a chance for the series sweep in favor of Milwaukee.

The Brewers only had one chance at a three-game series sweep so far this season and they lost that in Colorado, 7-2. You can't lose out on the sweep to both of those teams, right? I could only lean toward Milwaukee on the ML or run line."

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday’s game between the Brewers and the White Sox:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Milwaukee Brewers on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Chicago White Sox at +1.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0.

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Brewers at White Sox

• The Brewers have won their last 3 road games, while the White Sox have lost 8 in 10 at home
• The Over is 12-7-1 for the White Sox's and the Brewers' last 10 games combined
• The Brewers have covered the Run Line in 3 straight games at the White Sox

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

Its Thursday, May 1 and the Cardinals (14-17) are in Cincinnati wrapping up a four-game series against the Reds (16-15).

Matthew Liberatore is slated to take the mound for St. Louis against Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati.

St. Louis hammered Cincinnati yesterday taking both games of their doubleheader by a combined score of 15-1. The Cardinals scored all nine of their runs in the first three innings of their 9-1 win in the nightcap. Wilson Contreras smacked a three-run home run in the first inning to set the tone for the Cards.

Lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game details & how to watch Cardinals at Reds

• Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
• Time: 12:40PM EST
• Site: Great American Ball Park
• City: Cincinnati, OH
• Network/Streaming: FDSNMW, FDSNOH

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Cardinals at the Reds

The latest odds as of Thursday:

• Moneyline: Cardinals (+102), Reds (-122)
• Spread:  Reds -1.5
• Total: 8.0 runs

Probable starting pitchers for Cardinals at Reds

• Pitching matchup for May 1, 2025: Matthew Liberatore vs. Andrew Abbott
  
  • Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore (2-2, 3.19 ERA)
    Last outing: 4/25 vs. Milwaukee - 6IP, 1ER, 5H, 0BB, 4Ks
  • Reds: Andrew Abbott (2-0, 3.60 ERA)
    Last outing: 4/25 at Colorado - 4IP, 4ER, 5H, 5BB, 4Ks

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Cardinals at Reds

• The Under is 5-2 in the Cards' last 7 games
• The Under is 6-2 in the Reds' last 8 games
• Elly De La Cruz is riding a 14-game hitting streak during which he is 19-54 (.352)
• Wilson Contreras has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games (.356)

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for today’s game between the Cardinals and the Reds

Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday's game between the Cardinals and the Reds:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the St. Louis Cardinals at +1.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0.

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

Its Thursday, May 1 and the Diamondbacks (16-14) are in Queens to take on the Mets (21-10) in the series finale.

Zac Gallen is slated to take the mound for Arizona against Kodai Senga for New York.

These teams have split the first two games of this series with Arizona winning yesterday 4-3. The Diamondbacks scored two in the seventh and two in the ninth to earn the win. Pinch-hitter Geraldo Perdomo drove in those seventh inning runs, and Corbin Burnes won his first game for the Diamondbacks allowing one run on four hits over six innings.

Lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game details & how to watch Diamondbacks at Mets

• Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
• Time: 1:10PM EST
• Site: Citi Field
• City: Queens, NY
• Network/Streaming: ARID, SNY, MLBN

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Diamondbacks at the Mets

The latest odds as of Thursday:

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+128), Mets (-152)
• Spread:  Mets -1.5
• Total: 7.0 runs

Probable starting pitchers for Diamondbacks at Mets

• Pitching matchup for May 1, 2025: Zac Gallen vs. Kodai Senga
  
  • Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (1-4, 5.57 ERA)
    Last outing: 4/25 vs. Atlanta - 5IP, 3ER, 4H, 2BB, 6Ks
  • Mets: Kodai Senga (3-1, 1.26 ERA)
    Last outing: 4/25 at Washington - 6IP, 2ER, 6H, 2BB, 5Ks

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Diamondbacks at Mets

• The Mets have won their last 3 home games Kodai Senga has started
• This season Kodai Senga has an ERA of 1.28 and a WHIP of 0.98
• Betting the Mets on the Run Line with Kodai Senga starting has returned a 1.00-unit profit in 2025
• Francisco Alvarez is 4-21 (.190) since his return from the disabled list

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for today’s game between the Diamondbacks and the Mets

Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday's game between the Diamondbacks and the Mets:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the New York Mets on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the New York Mets -1.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 7.0.

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

Its a Paul Skenes Thursday. Its May 1 and Skenes and the Pirates (12-19) and the Cubs (18-13) wrap up a series in Pittsburgh.

Colin Rea is slated to take the mound for Chicago against Skenes for Pittsburgh.

These teams have split the first two games of this series with the Bucs winning yesterday, 4-3. Andrew McCutchen drove in a pair of runs to pace the attack for Pittsburgh.

Lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game details & how to watch Cubs at Pirates

• Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
• Time: 12:35PM EST
• Site: PNC Park
• City: Pittsburgh, PA
• Network/Streaming: MARQ, SNP

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Cubs at the Pirates

The latest odds as of Thursday:

• Moneyline: Cubs (+134), Pirates (-159)
• Spread:  Pirates -1.5
• Total: 7.0 runs

Probable starting pitchers for Cubs at Pirates

• Pitching matchup for May 1, 2025: Colin Rea vs. Paul Skenes
  
  • Cubs: Colin Rea (1-0, 0.96 ERA)
    Last outing: 4/25 vs. Philadelphia - 5IP, 0ER, 3H, 2BB, 7Ks
  • Pirates: Paul Skenes (3-2, 2.39 ERA)
    Last outing: 4/25 at Dodgers - 6.1IP, 0ER, 5H, 0BB, 9Ks

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Cubs at Pirates

• The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with losing records
• The Under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs' last 5 matchups against NL Central teams
• Kyle Tucker is in a funk with just 2 hits in his last 22 ABs (.091)
• Paul Skenes has struck out 39 opposing batters in 37.2 innings

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Cubs and the Pirates

Rotoworld Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday's game between the Cubs and the Pirates:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Chicago Cubs at +1.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 7.0.

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

In this week's Closer Report, Félix Bautista is returning to his All-Star form coming off Tommy John surgery. Justin Martinez could be in danger of missing time amid shoulder concerns. And David Bednar is getting comfortable back in the ninth-inning role with the Pirates. All that and more as we cover the last week in saves.

Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings

Tier 1: At the Top

Mason Miller - Athletics
Andrés Muñoz - Seattle Mariners
Josh Hader - Houston Astros

Miller gave up his first runs of the season on a two-run homer against the White Sox on Friday before holding on for the save. He struck out the side in a non-save situation Sunday, then converted his ninth save against the Rangers on Monday. The 26-year-old right-hander has a phenomenal 22/2 K/BB ratio across 11 innings.

Muñoz still owns a clean 0.00 ERA over 15 innings after locking down three more saves this week, giving him 11 on the year with a 19/6 K/BB ratio. He's already halfway to his career-high of 22 saves last season.

Hader converted his eighth save on Monday with two strikeouts against the Tigers before giving up two runs in a non-save situation on Tuesday. The 31-year-old left-hander has been on one of his better runs from a skills perspective, posting a 20/3 K/BB ratio across 15 innings.

Tier 2: The Elite

Robert Suarez - San Diego Padres
Tanner Scott - Los Angeles Dodgers
Jeff Hoffman - Toronto Blue Jays
Edwin Díaz - New York Mets

Suarez gave up his first run of the season in a non-save situation against the Rays on Sunday, then bounced back to close out both Tuesday and Wednesday's contests against the Giants to give him 12 saves, most in baseball.

No saves for the back end of the Dodgers bullpen this week, but Scott did make a pair of scoreless appearances after blowing his most recent save chance. With Blake Treinen on the injured list, Kirby Yates moved up the bullpen hierarchy and pitched his way into two wins this week.

Hoffman picked up his sixth save against the Yankees on Friday as he continues pitching well as a full-time closer for the first time with Toronto. He then tossed two perfect innings with three strikeouts to fall in line for the win in extra innings Wednesday against the Red Sox.

There was some concern surrounding Díaz as he was dealing with a hip issue last week. He got the save chance on Saturday and looked healthy as he struck out the side. Díaz was then held out for another save chance on Sunday while Ryne Stanek failed to get the job done, blowing the save and taking the loss.

Tier 3: The Solid Options

Félix Bautista - Baltimore Orioles
Ryan Helsley - St. Louis Cardinals
Jose Alvarado - Philadelphia Phillies
Jhoan Duran - Minnesota Twins
Emmanuel Clase - Cleveland Guardians
Luke Weaver - New York Yankees
Raisel Iglesias - Atlanta Braves
Ryan Walker - San Francisco Giants

Bautista is on a bit of a roll now. He converted three saves this week and extended his scoreless streak to seven games. The control is also coming back as he's made four consecutive outings without allowing a walk. The 29-year-old right-hander will continue to quickly rise up the rankings if he can return to 2023 form.

Helsley picked up a save Friday against the Brewers, then blew the chance the following day with two runs allowed. His velocity has been down a tick this season and his strikeouts have disappeared over his last several outings. Just something to keep an eye on for now.

Jordan Romano picked up the only save for the Phillies this week as he closed out a game against the Cubs in extra innings on Sunday. Alvarado pitched the eighth inning against the Nationals on Tuesday, working around two hits while striking out the side. While he should still be considered the primary closer, matchup usage could lead to stretches without saves.

No save chances for the Twins this week, but Duran did make two perfect appearances. The 27-year-old right-hander has posted a 1.46 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a 12/6 K/BB ratio across 12 1/3 innings.

Clase bounced back after getting five days off recovering from some shoulder soreness. He made two scoreless appearances, striking out two in a clean eighth inning on Saturday before picking up a win with a scoreless inning on Tuesday. Clase then got the save chance Wednesday and struck out three for his fifth save despite giving up a run on two hits. While he looks to be getting on track, his early struggles and shoulder concerns can't be dismissed.

Devin Williams blew a save and took another loss with three runs allowed against the Blue Jays on Friday. He'll take a step back from the closer role while he works through his struggles. Stepping in is Weaver, who ended last season as the closer and has been outstanding out of the bullpen for New York. He's not allowed a run over 14 innings through April.

Iglesias blew a save chance Saturday against the Diamondbacks, giving up a solo homer run. It was the fifth home run allowed by the 35-year-old right-hander, already one more than the four he gave up all last season. He bounced back with a save on Monday against the Rockies, striking out one in a scoreless inning.

Walker pitched better this week after struggling over his previous outings. He struck out two batters in each of his two scoreless appearances, picking up a win Saturday against the Rangers. It's fair to wonder if an early-season back issue might have led to Walker's struggles, but it seems he'll hold on to the closer role in San Francisco, for now. Camilo Doval has been a bit up-and-down himself but would be in line to step in if Walker is ineffective.

Tier 4: Here for the Saves

Kenley Jansen - Los Angeles Angels
Pete Fairbanks - Tampa Bay Rays
Trevor Megill - Milwaukee Brewers
Aroldis Chapman/Justin Slaten - Boston Red Sox
Justin Martinez - Arizona Diamondbacks
Emilio Pagan - Cincinnati Reds
Luke Jackson - Texas Rangers
Carlos Estévez - Kansas City Royals
David Bednar - Pittsburgh Pirates
Tommy Kahnle/Will Vest - Detroit Tigers
Kyle Finnegan - Washington Nationals
Ryan Pressly - Chicago Cubs

Jansen is a perfect six-for-six in save chances after picking up a save last Thursday against the Pirates. The 37-year-old right-hander has tossed eight scoreless innings with an 8/2 K/BB ratio.

Fairbanks had a busy week on the mound, converting three saves to get him to six on the season to go with a pair of wins. The 31-year-old right-hander still isn't getting the strikeouts he was getting before last season, but he'll continue to close as long as he can get the job done.

Megill took the loss Saturday against the Cardinals, giving up a solo homer in the bottom of the ninth. He then got a save chance Wednesday against the White Sox, his first since April 18. Megill worked around a hit and a walk, striking out two for his third save. He's pitched only 8 1/3 innings this season, giving up four runs with an 11/5 K/BB ratio.

No save chances for the Red Sox this week. Chapman pitched a pair of clean outings and has given up just two runs with a 17/4 K/BB ratio across 11 1/3 innings.

It's time to be concerned about Martinez. He took the loss Saturday against the Braves, then converted his third save Sunday as he worked around two walks and a hit. Martinez got the save chance Wednesday against the Mets with a three-run lead and was sitting at 95 mph, significantly lower than his average of 100 mph. He gave up a leadoff homer and walked two batters before he was pulled. Following the game, manager Torey Lovullo admitted an evaluation might be required and a stint on the injured list can't be ruled out. Shelby Miller could be in line for save chances if it turns out Martinez needs some time off.

Pagán locked down three more saves this week for the Reds as he continues to solidify the closer role in Cincinnati. The 33-year-old right-hander is up to eight saves with a 2.51 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, and a 14/2 K/BB ratio across 14 1/3 innings.

Jackson blew the save against the Athletics on Thursday, then bounced back with a two-out save against the Giants on Friday for his eighth of the season. Jackson then took the losses on Sunday against the Giants and Wednesday against the Athletics as he entered both of the games tied. Sunday's loss came on an error while he gave up four runs to the A's on Wednesday.

After blowing a save last week, Estévez bounced back with four saves over four scoreless appearances this week. The 32-year-old right-hander is up to nine saves with a 2.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a 13/9 K/BB ratio across 15 innings. Not the most impressive skills, but he's getting the job done.

Bednar has worked his way back into the closer role in Pittsburgh after a successful stint in the minors where he tossed five scoreless innings with a 7/0 K/BB ratio. He struck out two in a scoreless inning against the Dodgers on Friday for the save, then shut the door on the Cubs on Wednesday for his third save of the season.

It looks like a two-man closer committee in Detroit. After Vest locked down three saves in the last week, he got the seventh and eighth inning Tuesday against the Astros and was charged with a blown save as he allowed three runs. Kahnle then got the final out in the eighth on Wednesday and converted a four-out save in Houston. Vest has displayed the best skills in that bullpen, but A.J. Hinch will continue to play the matchups in the late innings.

Finnegan was charged with two blown saves this week. He entered with two outs and the bases loaded up by two against the Mets on Friday and gave up a bases-clearing triple. He then gave up two runs against the Phillies on Tuesday for his second blown save. The 33-year-old right-hander remains at nine saves with a 3.09 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and a 13/7 K/BB ratio across 11 2/3 innings.

No saves for the Cubs this week. Pressly made one scoreless appearance, his first since having his knee drained last Tuesday. While he's managed to give up just three runs over 12 innings, it's come with a 5/7 K/BB ratio. Between the diminished skills and elevated injury risk, Pressly could have a hard time maintaining the closer role all season.

Tier 5: Bottom of the Barrel

Jesus Tinoco/Calvin Faucher - Miami Marlins
Seth Halvorsen/Tyler Kinley - Colorado Rockies
Jordan Leasure - Chicago White Sox

No saves for the Marlins this week. And the usage is all over the place. The same can apply to all three situations in this bottom tier. There's not much worth chasing here if looking for saves.

Relievers On The Rise/Stash Candidates

The Diamondbacks reinstated Kevin Ginkel from the 15-day injured list on Tuesday. The 31-year-old right-hander has been recovering from right shoulder inflammation he suffered in spring training. Ginkel has been an effective reliever in Arizona over the last several seasons, at times working his way into the closer mix. He posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 77 strikeouts over 70 innings while picking up five saves last season. Ginkel could be worth a dart throw as a stash in deep leagues given the velocity and injury concerns surrounding Justin Martinez. Arizona put him right into a high-leverage spot on Wednesday with a runner in scoring position and two outs in the seventh. He worked around a walk and struck out the final batter in the inning to preserve a one-run lead.

Graham Ashcraft's time as a starter has come to an end as the Reds have moved the 27-year-old right-hander into the bullpen, where his high-velocity fastball should play up. That's proven true through the first month. Ashcraft has produced a 0.71 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a 13/7 K/BB ratio across 12 2/3 innings while his swinging-strike rate has jumped to 13%, up from about 10% as a starter over the last two seasons.