Five rental pitchers Phillies could target amid Andrew Painter's struggles originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
It seemed like Andrew Painter had made the pitch-mix rearrangement that could generate consistency.
That has not come.
After three starts against Boston, Cincinnati and Cleveland where he posted a 2.60 ERA and went at least five innings each time, the Phillies’ right-handed rookie has allowed 15 earned runs over his last three outings.
Thirteen innings. A 10.38 ERA.
Ouch.
Those starts came against three division leaders: the Dodgers, White Sox and Brewers. Painter allowed four earned runs in Los Angeles, six against Chicago and five Friday in Milwaukee.
Opponents have tagged him for a .339 average and a 1.070 OPS in those outings.
Philadelphia simply has not had a great chance to win when he has taken the ball lately. Don Mattingly and the organization did not flinch after Painter’s last start a week ago. He was getting the start against the Brewers.
It did not work, even with the opener strategy they tried.
The Phillies need to make a change, and consider sending Painter to Triple-A.
The organization does not have much starting pitching depth. It was an issue they acknowledged at the beginning of spring camp. With a slew of veteran pitchers still on the free-agent market, the Phillies stayed put.
Just this year, they have released Taijuan Walker, who had a 9.13 ERA in five outings in the rotation. Aaron Nola has not bounced back, registering a 5.68 ERA. And Painter, their top pitching prospect entering the season, has a 6.21 ERA.
If the answer comes from within, Alan Rangel could be an option. He has seen some big-league innings over the last two seasons and has posted a 3.74 ERA in 65 innings for Lehigh Valley, working both as a starter and reliever. His most recent start came Friday.
Braydon Tucker, at Double-A, has made 10 starts and has the second-lowest ERA across all affiliated ball, including the majors, minimum 55 innings pitched.
The 26-year-old sinker-balling righty has found success at each level up to Reading and certainly deserves a promotion to Triple-A. His pitch-to-contact profile could even warrant a big-league start soon.
But if the Phillies want a legitimate big-league starter, there are a number of names on teams falling out of playoff contention or with enough pitching depth to move an arm.
Dave Dombrowski has already been proactive, acquiring outfield depth in Derek Hill when the club’s right-handed bats had struggled against lefties and Adolis García was later placed on the 60-day injured list.
So what hurlers are out there?
DET — RHP Casey Mize
The 29-year-old right-hander is one of the most interesting and least talked about deadline candidates.
He is a rental who has been on the IL over the last few weeks with right groin tightness, but is scheduled to return to the Tigers’ rotation Sunday.
In nine starts this year, the former first overall pick has posted a 2.27 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and a 2.41 FIP.
His underlying metrics are very promising. He ranks in at least the top 15 percent of pitchers in expected ERA (2.64, top eight), expected batting average (.202, top 13) and average exit velocity (86.8 mph, top 14).
Mize, who was named to his first All-Star team a year ago, features a five-pitch mix. His best two pitches this year have been his four-seam fastball and slider.
The four-seamer is a pitch that Nola and Painter have been hit hard on this year. Opposing hitters are batting just .180 against Mize’s four-seamer, which he has thrown a third of the time, with just one homer.
His slider, used 25 percent of the time, has held hitters to a .114 average. That is the lowest average among starting pitchers who have thrown it at least 100 times.
Considering the Phillies have not gotten anywhere close to the production they wanted from Nola and Painter, it would make sense if they looked outside the organization for a strong rental who could reinforce the biggest strength of this team.
Starting pitching.
A postseason rotation of Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Mize, who was solid in two playoff starts a year ago, could win games on its own.
And it is possible.
Detroit has been one of baseball’s most underwhelming teams at 29-41, nine games back in the AL Central and 5 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot.
There is a good chance the Tigers move back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, another rental and one the Phillies likely could not afford in prospect capital.
If Detroit is willing to go that route, trading Mize would make sense, too.
NYY — LHP Ryan Yarbrough / RHP Paul Blackburn
The Yankees are firmly in a playoff spot, battling Tampa Bay for the top spot in the AL East.
They lead the American League in run differential by nearly 80 runs, thanks in part to some high-scoring games, but more importantly their pitching.
They have a lot of it.
Neither Yarbrough nor Blackburn, both on one-year deals, have started games this year. That is because the Yankees have not needed them to.
They have been used in shorter roles than usual, and pitched well, mostly because New York has not needed a long reliever often with its strong starting staff.
But both can be stretched out to make starts.
Yarbrough, 34, is a crafty arm who is excellent at missing barrels. He has been an advanced-metric darling, like Mize.
His expected ERA is 2.77. He is in the 96th percentile in barrel rate, 99th percentile in average exit velocity and 100th percentile in hard-hit rate at 19.1 percent. That hard-hit rate is the second best in the sport behind Padres closer Mason Miller.
This year, Yarbrough has registered a 3.47 ERA in 23 1/3 innings over 14 outings.
He would be a strong innings eater and trustworthy contributor in the back end of the Phillies’ rotation the rest of the way. He also has postseason experience, with a 3.06 ERA in 17 2/3 innings in parts of the 2019 and 2020 postseasons for the Rays, helping during Tampa Bay’s World Series run in the COVID-shortened season.
There is no guarantee New York would deal its cost-efficient lefty, especially with Max Fried on the shelf. But for the right offer, the Yankees would budge.
Blackburn, 32, throws a wide array of pitches, with seven different offerings.
His changeup, curveball and sweeper have been strong in his 10th big-league season. He has also been excellent at generating groundballs, with a 55.3 percent rate that ranks in the top 6 percent of pitchers.
He gets similar quality of contact to Mize. The former All-Star does not jump off the page, but could at the very least be a solid depth piece for the Phils.
Neither Yarbrough nor Blackburn would call for the pretty-penny package Mize would.
BOS — RHP Sonny Gray
This feels like the least likely fit, but there is some draw because of Gray’s experience.
The 36-year-old does not make the Phillies any younger, but if the front office believes its clearest path to a championship is shutting teams down, this is the kind of move it could consider.
Gray has been sharp in his first year in Boston after being traded there from St. Louis in the offseason. He has a 3.03 ERA in 12 starts.
He is a different pitcher than the three-time All-Star most are used to seeing. He long leaned on his four-seam fastball, but this year, he has used his cutter about the same amount, even a little more.
Gray is producing more groundballs than he has in years and still commands the strike zone well, even while navigating the ABS system with lower velocity.
Boston has been a paltry 28-39 club and had to send out three prospects in the winter to acquire Gray, so he would still cost a fair amount.
The longtime hurler also has a mutual option for next season at $30 million, which essentially makes him a rental. It would be hard to picture any suitor being satisfied with a 37-year-old making that kind of money, but teams would be happy if Gray became the missing piece in their rotation.
A move of this nature would speak to how aggressive the Phils want to be, not only in getting to the postseason, but in building a staff that can win there.
NYM — LHP David Peterson
How about an in-division trade for yet another rental?
Peterson’s surface-level numbers do not make him a grand finale.
A 5.75 ERA across seven starts and seven relief appearances. His 3.51 FIP, though, signals some misfortune.
The southpaw broke out for the Mets in 2024 and carried that into his first All-Star appearance in 2025. Between the two seasons, he posted a 19-9 record with a 3.67 ERA across 289 2/3 innings over 51 starts.
The Phillies have had success against Peterson in his six seasons in New York, pushing him to a 5.28 ERA. But the lefty was strong against Philadelphia in two relief appearances in the 2024 NLDS, when the Mets took the series. He allowed no runs over 5 1/3 innings.
What makes Peterson interesting, even with his struggles this year, is his groundball rate.
Over the last five seasons, he has produced a groundball rate of 49.8 percent or higher, ranking in at least the top 23 percent of pitchers in the category each year. Last season, he posted a career-high 55.4 percent rate. He is not far behind this year at 53 percent.
Despite not being overpowering, Peterson gets great extension (7.1 feet) to the plate, maximizing his 6-foot-6, 240-pound frame.
A Mets-Phillies swap would be entertaining regardless of the variety, and this would be the perfect year for it with New York sitting at the bottom of the East at 31-38.
