Author: MLB Baseball News, Scores, Standings, Rumors, Fantasy Games

Past summaries:

• So far, so good through mid-April
• Even better in late April
• May-be they’re just really good
• Late May just good, rather than absurdly awesome
• A June swoon so far
• Awful
• Fake it and maybe make it
• With some luck, back on the horse

The dog days of summer extend into August, and while they’re astronomically over now, the metaphor still works. Sorta. Has it been hot? Yes. Have the Braves been hot? Believe it or not, also yes. But, do you feel like there’s a degree of lethargy and listlessness? Maybe? Possibly? If so, well, the dog days stuff is right on the money.

This is really for a different post, so I’ll save most of it for that post, but this might be the weirdest Braves team I’ve seen in over a quarter-century. They are, wins-wise, almost as fine as can be, with their fourth-best record in baseball and on a see-saw for the Dodgers for second playoff bye in the NL. Yet, production-wise, they are the expected “reasonable playoff team that’s dealt and continues to deal” with a lot of injuries. Given their production, they should be on pace for 85 wins and not their current 96. Having a team whose identity is “we somehow end up with more wins than you’d think” without any specific way in which they get there is bizarre. There’s more to say, but elsewhere. It’s just weird, and perhaps all the weirder that it’s a quirk in the Braves’ favor for once.

How did the Braves do recently?

The Braves went 8-5 in the first half of August. It was an erratic performance. The month started with a continuation of their win streak from end of July; the streak ended at eight, with five in August. They then lost a series to the Yankees, won a series against the Mets, and lost the first two games in a set against the Diamondbacks. 8-5 is pretty good, both among MLB teams in August, and in general (100-win pace). But, the nature of how it was racked up — basically two series losses and two wins, with the back half of one series added in, is what potentially prompts that dog day ennui.

The reason for that ennui is partially illustrated below, and dovetails with the words above: the Braves are good at winning games, especially ones where they play okay, but they also have a lot of particularly blah performances that make the aggregate look worse than the game-to-game. To wit:

• Braves are 18th in position player fWAR in August, including 16th in offensive outputs and 10th in offensive inputs. (That luck from late July has evaporated…)
• Braves are ninth in pitcher fWAR in August, seventh/11th/11th in ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- respectively, and split with the rotation being fourth and the bullpen being 24th in fWAR for the first half of the month.

Would you have guessed they were 10th in xwOBA and ninth in pitcher fWAR over the last two weeks? Or does it feel worse after they got smushed in two games by the Diamondbacks?

Speaking of that… By game-by-game odds, the Braves should’ve gone 7-6ish over these 13 games, so no huge divergence there. But, this stretch did feature the team’s worst loss-against-expectations thus far: 2-0 to the Diamondbacks in the Chris Sale-Brandon Pfaadt matchup at home. Pre-game, it was the Braves’ third-“easiest” on-paper matchup all year, and they won the two with higher victory odds. So, that was the worst loss of the season, in a way. (They also won the fourth-easiest, on August 1, against the Nationals.) On the flip side, two of their three games against the Yankees (the non-Sale ones) were tied for third in hardest matchup to date, and the Braves split those, so… baseball?

How are the Braves doing for the season?

The further we get in, the more same-y this reads, which I guess is a good thing in some ways.

The Braves have a 7.5-game lead over the Phillies. Given that there is a three-way tie in the standings for the last two NL playoff spots, the Braves’ lead over the Phillies is their hold on a playoff spot, too. The Braves have division odds of over 91 percent, a 1-in-3ish chance of grabbing a bye with a top-two record, and playoff odds north of 99 percent. Basically none of these numbers budged in August, although their chances of a bye did go up by a few percentage points as the Dodgers have continued to scuffle.

The Braves’ aggregate team stats are not impressive, though you already knew that.

• 19th in position player fWAR, including 11th in defense, 16th in hitting outputs (wRC+), and 11th in hitting inputs (xwOBA).
• 16th in pitching fWAR, including 20th in the rotation and sixth in the bullpen. Their ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- ranks are fifth/18th/11th, which is an exceedingly silly line that suggests that their defense/strand rate timing is chef’s kiss-esque, but that they’ve also been very homer-prone in a way that hasn’t actually caused a bunch of runs to accumulate. As noted above, the HR/FB has at least normalized a bit recently.

A big signpost for me was whether the offense could play at a top-ten rate after their June swoon — the pitching is what it is, especially in the management, and I think the team needs to hit in some fashion (whether sustainably or just by getting lucky) to power through the end of the season. At this point, they’re juuuust making that mark when you go from July 1-forward: tenth in wRC+ (seventh in wOBA) but 13th in xwOBA. It’s a similar-ish story post-All Star Break (tenth-ish across the board), but there are some warning signs in August as they haven’t been able to sustain late July’s xwOBA overperformance and have sunk to middle-of-the-pack offensive production. They will need something (luck, better hitting) to avoid the remaining six-ish weeks of the season from getting uncomfortable.

How are the hitters doing?

We’ve hit the point in the season where there’s a lot of normalization between wOBA and xwOBA. But, moreso than that, this was a very stars-and-scrubs two weeks.

Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mike Yastrzemski carried the load. Everyone else was kinda awful. It’s hard to carry multiple guys doing what Jim Jarvis, Ozzie Albies, and Drake Baldwin have done so far in August, but they’ve largely been regulars.

On the season, it’s a weird mix of guys, too, in the production sense. Olson, Michael Harris II, and Baldwin have done the business. A few guys have chipped in. Jim Jarvis entirely undid in a couple of weeks any good vibes he may have brought to the shortstop position earlier in the year. It’d be nice if Riley and/or Yastrzemski extended a tear into the rest of August and September, or if Acuña went on a tear (or at least had his inputs normalize with his outputs), or if Albies could get back to where he was earlier in the season.

At least the bubble charts look like everyone’s along a single (diagonal) axis now:

I do just want to call out, in case it’s buried in said dog days, that Riley and Yastrzemski were legitimately on fire for these two weeks. They also led the team in WPA among position players, but since that WPA was 0.12… it’s not really that exciting.

How are the pitchers doing?

It was a fun two weeks for the rotation.

As I always write here, Chris Sale is Chris Sale. The video game numbers continue, and were especially video game-y in August’s first half. His seasonal numbers are pretty ridiculous, too. Tyler Mahle showed up and had two epic starts. I’m torn on whether, for Mahle’s sake, the right side of the table should be as a-Brave or just the season in general. In any case, those are some pretty insane numbers for someone in two starts. Martin Perez and Grant Holmes were decent (Perez riding a homerless stretch helped his value immensely) while Bryce Elder struggled. On the season, the pecking order between the three seems to be Perez (less homer-itis), then Elder (same pitching, more homer-itis) and then Holmes. All in all, Perez has pitched like a mid-rotation starter, and Elder is either there or a little worse depending on how much you believe in his lack of homer suppression. Holmes has nasty (the bad kind) of numbers on the season; he seems very primed to be a multi-inning, nine-batters-max weapon in a playoff bullpen, but we’ll see if the Braves agree.

In the bullpen, Didier Fuentes had hilariously video-game level numbers in six outings in the first half of August. Dylan Lee had a funny line in six outings with no runs charged, but a decent FIP and a bad xFIP. Raisel Iglesias, Tyler Kinley, and Danny Young all had a horrible two weeks.

A special shoutout to Dylan Dodd, who somehow had a bad two weeks pitching-wise, but a great two weeks WPA-wise. Dodd’s line was a funny 38/122/116, which will happen in a small sample. But, he joined his Dylan compatriot as the only reliever with multiple shutdowns and no meltdowns in this span (3/0 for each). He played rescue ranger twice: once coming in after a leadoff single in the seventh with a 1-0 lead, and in the other, appearing in a bases-loaded jam in walkoff territory after Iglesias blew his save chance against the Yankees.

See you at the end of the month!

Let’s keep the mid-season 2026 Purple Row Prospects (PuRPs) list reveal rolling! Today are prospects 25-21. As a reminder, in this edition of the PuRPs poll, 29 qualifying ballots were cast, with 30 points granted for a first place vote, 29 for second, etc.

For each player on the PuRPs list, I’ll include a link to individual stats and contract status (via Baseball-Reference), PuRPs voting stats, a note on the 2026 season to date, and a scouting report from a national prospect writer where possible. For what it’s worth, I’ll also include where I put each player on my personal ballot. All ages are as of the date the article is posted.

25. Andy Perez (168 points, 20 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: NR— High Ballot 14, Mode Ballot 26, 27

How did he enter the organization?

2021 International Free Agent, Cuba

Why did he make the PuRPs list?

Perez is an athletic up-the-middle player with decent speed and good contact ability in a large frame (likely 6’4”, 210 pounds). The 22-year-old lefty-hitting, righty-throwing shortstop was an international free agent out of Cuba, signing in 2021 for $300k. After two seasons in the DSL, Perez skipped the Complex League in 2023 and was assigned directly to Low-A Fresno, where he was overmatched by older pitching (63 wRC+).

In 2024, Perez was returned to Fresno and his batting numbers progressed to a league-average level (100 wRC+). Perez got a late season look with High-A Spokane as well, where he was below league average in 66 PA (54 wRC+) as a 20-year-old. In 2025, Perez served as the shortstop starter for Spokane, committing 17 errors in 113 games, but offensively it was a struggle again. In 483 plate appearances, Perez hit .271/.314/.389 with 19 steals in 23 attempts and hit seven homers among his 33 extra-base hits, totaling a 83 wRC+.

This year, Perez has been the primary shortstop at Double-A Hartford, where he is 1.7 years younger than league average. Despite the step up in level, Perez has had a stronger year at the plate with Hartford, hitting .301/.332/.413 with seven homers and 23 steals in 459 plate appearances, which is a near league average 96 wRC+. Perez has put the ball in play quite a bit, walking in only 4.4% of plate appearances and striking out in 14.6% of them while facing a younger pitcher in only nine of his plate appearances. At shortstop, Perez has committed 13 errors in 92 games. The overall numbers aren’t super impressive, but Perez’s ability to hang in Double-A at a younger age at a middle infield slot is notable.

Here’s some video of Perez in 2024 with Fresno, including slo mo swing looks at the end:

What do the scouts say?

Perez is ranked by FanGraphs as the 15th best in the system at a 40+ FV grade:

Perez and Dyan Jorge entered the organization months apart with similar profiles as glove-first Cuban shortstops. They have progressed, if not quite in lockstep, then at least with some overlap since. But while Jorge had bigger amateur hype, it’s Perez who has quietly developed into the intriguing middle-of-the-diamond prospect.

Perez has grown into his large and lean frame very slowly. Even with somewhat long levers and just average bat speed, he has great feel for contact and has some of the best spin recognition I’ve encountered in a player his age. It’s a see-ball, hit-ball approach, though, and his 62% swing rate was the highest in the system among players who are actually prospects; for an idea of what that tends to look like, Ezequiel Tovar is in a similar territory and he’s run a 4.1% career walk rate in the majors. Tovar has a lot more power, however, as Perez’s remains below-average, and unless he gets significantly stronger, he looks like he’s going to tap into weak outs on pitches he’d be better off leaving. Better discernment or strength gains are useful for anyone, but could have an exponential effect in this case; perhaps new voices in Colorado’s player dev group can unlock something here.

Defensively, Perez’s work with the glove should get him to the big leagues. He’s a rangy defender with a powerful and accurate arm and a very quick release given the first two parts of this sentence. He’s played around the diamond a bit to accommodate other shortstops — including Jorge, who he’s long since passed defensively — and that experience should serve him well in a utility role. If you’re feeling optimistic this spring, Perez’s frame and athleticism give him latent everyday upside in a way that’s unusual for a guy who has consistently posted pedestrian numbers in the box.

MLB.com ranks Perez 16th in the system as a 45 FV player with 50 grades on everything except power:

Ever since signing, Perez has shown a penchant for putting the ball in play from the left side of the plate. He very rarely swings and misses, but he can be a victim of his own success as his chase rates remain very high. He has added strength to his 6-foot-3 frame, which helped him get to some more extra-base authority, but the power some projected hasn’t shown up consistently, even with his success this year with Hartford. 

Perez can steal a base even though he possesses just average speed, and he moves very well defensively, especially given his size. He might have the range, instincts and arm to stick at shortstop long-term, though he’s also seen some time at second and third should he need to fill a utility-type role in the future. He’s still only 22, so there’s time for him to refine his swing decisions, get to more impact and grow into a regular role in one spot in the future.

When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?

Perez was 23rd on my list as a 40 FV player because big-framed shortstops who can stick at the position with both power potential and elite contact ability don’t grow on trees, even though it hasn’t come together yet for him. If that does happen, Perez would be more of an impact big leaguer than many others ahead of him on the list. Perez will be Rule 5 eligible for the second time this off-season and he’s going to be in contention to get protected with the season he’s had. If he’s back in the organization next year, Perez will probably be in the Double-A/Triple-A mix with a 2027 debut possible as a reserve.

24. Angel Jimenez (184 points, 12 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: NR — High Ballot 10, Mode Ballot 18

How did he enter the organization?

2019 International Free Agent, Venezuela

Why did he make the PuRPs list?

Jimenez didn’t exactly come out of nowhere this year, but you would be forgiven if you forgot his existence. The 23-year-old right-handed pitcher signed out of Venezuela all the way back in July of 2019 for $325k but due to the pandemic in 2020 and arm issues in 2021, Jimenez didn’t throw a pitch in affiliated game until 2022. After a decent debut in the Dominican Summer League, Jimenez had strong results stateside with the Arizona Complex League team in 2023 but lost another season in 2024 to injuries. By the time Jimenez made his full season ball debut in 2025, he’d already been Rule 5 eligible.

In 2025, Jimenez began back at the Complex level with seven starts before moving up to Low-A Fresno in late June for ten more starts to end the year. In all, Jimenez threw 60.2 innings with a 4.01 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 rate, and 3.7 BB/9 rate. That wasn’t enough to get him a 40-man roster placement, but over the off-season Jimenez found a change-up that put him on scouting radars. In 2026, Jimenez returned to Fresno, where he was league-average age even after seven years of professional baseball.

Jimenez started 14 games with Fresno, throwing 57.1 innings with a 4.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 rate, and 3.3 BB/9 rate, including two quality starts. After going on the shelf for a couple weeks and a two start rehab stint with the Complex League, Jimenez got his first look with High-A Spokane in mid-July and has made four starts there. In 13 innings (he hasn’t gone more than four innings in a High-A start yet), Jimenez has allowed 10 runs on 13 hits and seven walks with 16 strikeouts. Regardless of results, it’s been good to see Jimenez roughly match his entire professional innings total from 2019-2023 in 2026 alone.

What do the scouts say?

FanGraphs ranks Jimenez all the way up at number 10 in the system as a 45 FV player, slapping a plus future grade on the fastball and the change-up:

Jimenez is a loose and projectable righty who signed out of Venezuela back in 2019, but the pandemic and a series of injuries have limited him to 139.1 innings in pro ball. He dials it up into the upper 90s without much obvious effort, and has the athleticism and body control to project average control and a future in the rotation. Jimenez’s fastball shape isn’t great, but he throws hard enough — at least early in outings; his velocity tended to tail off toward the end of his outings last year — to get away with it.

After working with mostly average secondaries last summer, Jimenez showed up to camp with a plus sinking changeup, which is thrown with late action and good arm speed. His breaking balls are slurvy and can run together, but his best flash average; he has enough feel for spin to project here, and his relatively short track record gives me hope that time and reps will work their magic. He’s an exciting, arrow up arm, one who could find himself in the mix for the Top 100 someday if he can sharpen the slider, hold his stuff deeper into games, and leave the injury bug in his rear view mirror.

Jimenez snuck in at number 29 in the system for MLB Pipeline as a 40 FV player:

While he’s already 23, Jimenez is still more about projection and arm strength than feel for pitching due to all the time he’s missed. There’s plenty of velocity from his right arm, with a fastball that sits around 97 mph and touches 99. It plays down a bit because it can come in too straight and gets hit, with some concerns about its future playability lingering. He does have a full array of secondary offerings, with his sinking changeup ahead of his two breaking balls, but he does display decent feel to spin.

There’s a chance Jimenez could start long term because he does a nice job of repeating his delivery and throwing a good amount of strikes, though there’s plenty of work to be done in terms of maintaining his stuff deep into starts and in refining his breaking stuff and heater.

When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?

Unlike some others on this list, Jimenez doesn’t just face Rule 5 eligibility at year’s end — he’ll be a minor league free agent if the Rockies don’t add him to their 40-man roster this off-season (Yujanyer Herrera is in the same boat). That creates a sense of urgency for the Rockies to see what they’ve got in Jimenez. Right now, he appears to be a talented pitcher with a starter profile who probably needs two more years in the minor leagues.

If he got those years with the Rockies, he’d be occupying a 40-man roster spot and would burn two of his option years. Is Jimenez worth the trouble? Would he re-sign on a minor league deal in the off-season? I don’t know the answer, but Jimenez is a 40+ FV player for me, ranking 15th on my list because he’s got two potential plus pitches with two other decent secondaries and the Rockies need more of those kinds of players.

23. Max Belyeu (208 points, 20 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 15— High Ballot 12, Mode Ballot 22

How did he enter the organization?

2025 Competitive Balance Round B, University of Texas

Why did he make the PuRPs list?

Belyeu (pronounced like the bear in The Jungle Book) was Colorado’s third pick of the 2025 draft, going 74th overall and signing for a slot bonus of $1.11 million. Rockies fans will naturally make comparisons between Belyeu and fellow Texas hit-over-power outfielder, Rockies draftee (in 2024’s second round), and PuRP Jared Thomas. The 6’2” 22-year-old lefty hitting, righty throwing Belyeu handled right field for Texas in 2024 while Thomas (who is only five months older than Belyeu but was old enough to be a draft-eligible sophomore) took first base and center field. Belyeu broke out in a big way (along with Thomas) in 2024, winning the Big 12 Player of the Year award with a .329/.423/.667 batting line in 249 plate appearances which included 18 homers among his 34 extra-base hits (142 wRC+).

In 2025, Belyeu moved along with Texas to the tougher SEC as a potential first-round draft pick. He started the season well, but suffered a fractured left thumb in March while diving for a ball in the outfield that limited him to only 156 plate appearances and likely impacted his power output. Belyeu’s .303/.410/.576 line with nine homers among his 17 extra-base hits was still good for a 117 wRC+, but he also struck out over a quarter of the time (up from 17% in 2024) and struggled with chasing out of the zone and spin. Those warts were enough to make him available for the Rockies between the second and third rounds of the draft.

After the draft, the Rockies assigned Belyeu straight to High-A Spokane. Belyeu started strong (.318/.423/.727 with three homers in his first 26 plate appearances) but he went cold down the stretch, including a 1-20 mark with nine strikeouts in September. In 21 total games, Belyeu hit just .150/.244/.300 with four homers and three steals (42 wRC+) while striking out in 36% of plate appearances (and walking in 10% of them).

In 2026, Belyeu returned to Spokane, where he is about six months younger than league average. After a slower start, Belyeu was having a torrid June (.349/.434/.773 with eight homers in 17 games) before he tore a tendon in his finger that ended his season. In total, Belyeu hit .244/.348/.489 with 12 homers among his 26 extra-base hits in 258 plate appearances, good for a 109 wRC+. Based on the trajectory of his June, I’d say that without the injury, his full season total was headed a good bit better than that.

Belyeu walked in nearly 11% of plate appearances but strikeouts remained a big problem, consisting of 32% of his plate appearances. He crushed right-handed pitching (.923 OPS) and struggled against southpaws (.556 OPS) In the field, Belyeu spent time in all three outfield positions, though he was most often in right field, making nine outfield assists and committing one error.

And here are some highlights from Belyeu’s draft year with Texas:

What do the scouts say?

Baseball America was higher on Belyeu than every person in the PuRPs electorate, ranking him 7th in the system before the season and listing Belyeu as the 2029 Rockies right fielder:

Belyeu is a strong, physically developed 6-foot-2, 215-pound lefthanded hitter with a compact swing and quick hands. He has an aggressive approach at the plate and is prone to chasing pitches. Belyeu’s plate discipline showed steady improvement throughout his college career but it regressed dramatically in his pro debut. He possesses above-average raw power and projects to hit 20–25 home runs with further refinement.

Belyeu’s routes in the outfield can get scenic at times, but with reps he has a chance to be an above-average defender in an outfield corner. His arm is his loudest tool and is a plus weapon with great carry and accuracy that should leave baserunners questioning themselves when taking an extra bag.

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Belyeu 12th in the system in February:

Belyeu got a boost with the Rockies when one of his college coaches, a guy named Troy Tulowitzki, went to bat for him (pun intended), leading Colorado to take him in the second round in last year’s draft. He offers 25+ homer upside with the potential for plus defense in an outfield corner, but his approach is really suspect with a lot of chase and whiff, including too much of a tendency to give away at-bats entirely. He missed about 20 games of his college season with a thumb injury, and then missed fall instructional league with a hamstring injury. It’s a lot to ask of a player to overhaul his swing decisions, making Belyeu a very high-risk/high-reward prospect.

MLB Pipeline ranks Belyeu 14th in the system (he was 34th in their draft rankings) as a 45 FV player (the same grade as Thomas) with a 60 grade on the arm and a 55 on the power:

While Belyeu isn’t a total free swinger, he did get more aggressive during his junior year, and his strikeout rate did climb, something that continued during his stint with Spokane after signing. The left-handed hitter has some strike-zone awareness and there’s damage in there, with the ability to drive the ball to all fields, but he’s going to have to work to try not to do too much at the plate, which takes him out of his approach. The Rockies’ new hitting group values contact and will work with him to be a hitter first.

Belyeu is a solid athlete with decent speed and should be able to handle a corner outfield spot capably, with a plus arm that fits in right field. He plays with intensity, sometimes being too hard on himself, and he’ll get to show what he can really do over a full, healthy season.

FanGraphs is less sanguine on Belyeu, grading him as a 35+ FV player and ranking him 36th in the system (he was 117th in the draft rankings) with a 60 raw power and 55 bat control grade:

It’s possible that the [2025 thumb] injury, combined with the start-stop-go-pause-okay-let’s-play-again nature of Belyeu’s 2025 season destroyed his rhythm at the plate in a way that made his pro debut unrepresentative of what he’ll look like under normal circumstances. All parties should hope so. Visually, he looked lost and unbalanced in Spokane, and took some of the most bizarrely bad swings I’ve encountered in a high-level college prospect. A cursory review of the tape shows him swinging at fastballs above his helmet and in the dirt, and lunging at all manner of soft stuff, all while leaving much more hittable pitches aside. The stats bear this out, too. It was a relatively small sample, but the gap between his overall swing rate (49%, which is normal) and his swing rate on balls in the heart of the plate (59%, which is 20 grade) is alarming and strange in equal measure. His chase rate also exploded with two strikes, raising additional questions about his zone control and pitch recognition.

Athletically at least, there’s plenty to like. Belyeu has above-average bat speed, a chance for above-average power, and, strangely for someone with a huge strikeout rate, a flat and manipulable bat path. He’s also a decent runner and projects to be just fine in a corner. That hit tool, though. As much as I want to give him a pass for 2025, the numbers and the look are just too concerning to do anything other than stick him down here and hope last season was a fever dream.

When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?

I think it’s not too unreasonable to compare Thomas and Belyeu as prospects given the similarity in their provenance, age, and position. Thomas is faster, makes better swing decisions that gets his raw power into games more, and can play both center field and first base. Meanwhile, Belyeu has a better contact tool (though he has struck out more as a professional), raw power, and outfield arm that is well suited for right field.

I prefer Thomas as a prospect because the profile has already worked against Double-A pitching and Belyeu’s issues with spin are concerning, but Belyeu is comfortably a 40 FV player who I ranked 26th on my ballot. Scouts seem to be higher on Belyeu than the electorate, so hopefully he will show why in a bigger professional sample size next year, probably in Double-A Hartford.

22. JB Middleton (213 points, 23 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 7— High Ballot 12, Mode Ballot 19

How did he enter the organization?

2025 Second Round, University of Southern Mississippi

Why did he make the PuRPs list?

Middleton became the highest-ever drafted pitcher for Southern Mississippi when the Rockies took him 45th overall in the 2025 draft (Middleton was 41st in MLB Pipeline’s draft rankings), signing the 22-year-old right-hander to a $2.072 million bonus that was $100k under slot. Middleton doesn’t possess ideal size for a modern day hurler (he’s only 6’0”), but his repertoire includes a good three pitch mix (fastball, slider, change) that he throws for strikes. He throws from a three-quarter slot with a quick arm action, a mid-90s fastball, a late-breaking slider that gets whiffs, and a good change-up to keep lefties honest.

After two relatively unimpressive college seasons as a reliever, Middleton’s stuff took a big step forward in 2025 and he moved into an ace starter’s role. In 16 starts, Middleton averaged nearly 6.2 innings per outing (105.1 total) against less acclaimed competition in the Sun Belt conference. Middleton’s 2.31 ERA, 10.4 K/9 rate, and 2.1 BB/9 rate were good, but it was his sterling 0.85 WHIP (ranking second in Division I) that was especially noteworthy.

As a professional, Middleton didn’t debut until this spring with Low-A Fresno, where he is league-average age. Middleton made five starts in April before requiring internal brace surgery on his right elbow (which happened in June or July) that ended his season at just 20 innings pitched. Notably the recovery time for that procedure (when all goes well) is closer to 6-9 months rather than 12-18 months for Tommy John surgery.

In the innings he pitched before the injury, Middleton had a 4.95 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 rate, and 5.9 BB/9 rate. He was crushed by lefties (1.212 OPS against) in 44 plate appearances while he handled right-handers well (.538 OPS against in 49 plate appearances).

Here’s video of Middleton in action last March with USM courtesy of Kyler Peterson, including some slo-mo looks at his delivery and release for his arsenal in the last couple minutes:

What do the scouts say?

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Middleton 8th in the system in February:

Middleton is a four-pitch guy who’s up to 97 on the heater, lacking a clear out-pitch in the mix but mitigating that with plus control and a good delivery he repeats well. I noted at the draft that he was a good candidate for the Rockies, who now have their own pitching lab, to try to work with on pitch design, as his slider seems like it could be sharper and maybe become that 60 in the quiver to help him miss more bats. As is, he’s a back-end starter who should get to Double A quickly.

MLB Pipeline ranks Middleton 24th in the system as a 40 FV player with a 60 grade on the slider as well as a 55 on the fastball and changeup:

Middleton is an undersized right-hander who has the three-pitch mix to make a go as a starter. He can run his fastball up to 97 mph, sitting in the 93-95 mph range, and it can play above its velocity at times with his ability to both sink it or throw it with carry up in the zone. It gets a fair amount of miss and chase, but not nearly as much as his secondary offerings. His upper-80s slider has two-plane depth and is sometimes cutter-ish. Both that and his 86-88 mph tumbling and fading changeup miss a ton of bats both in and out of the zone. 

The six-foot Middleton isn’t the most physical hurler, but he’s athletic, repeats his delivery well and showed a vastly improved ability to find the zone compared to his time in the Southern Miss bullpen. The Rockies love that he pitches with a chip on his shoulder and is super-competitive, knowing that he’s going to hate whatever workload limitations they put on him.

FanGraphs grades Middleton as a 40 FV player (99th in the draft class) and ranks him 31st in the system with a 60 future grade on the changeup:

Middleton had a huge junior year at Southern Miss, where he moved into the rotation and posted a 2.31 ERA while striking out more than 10 per nine. The undersized righty was a popup guy, and a little extra velo down the stretch may have earned him a bunch of money, as he signed for a little more than $2 million.

Changeup aside, Middleton’s stuff looked fringy this spring. His fastball sits 93-95 without bat-missing shape, and he’ll likely need to air it out in short stints to reach higher than that over the long haul. He’s added a curve and flashes an above-average slider, though neither looks like an out pitch. He has good arm speed on the change, and the sink and fade he generates gives him a legitimate weapon for lefties. It’s the pitch mix and repertoire depth of a starter, and a backend starter outcome is in play. Middleton’s stature raises durability concerns, and his somewhat bland blend of stuff and command suggests that the second and third trips through the order could get ugly. For those reasons, a middle relief outcome seems most likely.

When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?

Middleton’s elevator pitch is that he is a high-probability starting pitcher with some mid-rotation projection. That profile has taken a hit with the injury, which is why I dropped him a half grade to a 40 FV player, 22nd on my list. Middleton’s 2027 is in question as he recovers from surgery. I anticipate that, even if he does return during the season, that the Rockies will ease him back in Fresno, though a High-A Spokane assignment by the end the season could happen as well.

21. Sean Sullivan (217 points, 20 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 8 — High Ballot 6, Mode Ballot 22

How did he enter the organization?

2023 Second Round, Wake Forest University

Why did he make the PuRPs list?

Despite a professional career that has been marred by injuries and an accompanying loss in velocity (sitting only in the mid-80s at points), Sullivan has made his bones by getting upper-minors hitters out — a lot of them via strikeout. Sullivan relies mostly on his fastball which despite the lower velocity is an effective pitch due to a low, wide release angle that gives it great carry up in the zone and the elite extension he gets that allows the velocity to play up. He pairs that offering with a slider and change-up, but the fastball and excellent command are the main separators.

The 6’4”, 24-year-old lefty pitcher was dominant at Wake Forest, pitching 69.2 innings with with a 2.45 ERA, 0.92 WHIP (fourth-best in Division 1), a 14.3 K/9 rate (second-best), and a 2.7 BB/9 rate as the Demon Deacons made it all the way to the College World Series semi-finals. Sullivan (whose delivery reminded the Rockies of Kyle Freeland) rode those numbers to a $1.7 million bonus from the Rockies that was about $187k below slot.

In High-A Spokane in 2024, Sullivan threw 83.1 innings in 14 starts with a 2.16 ERA (2.79 xFIP), 0.84 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 rate, and a minuscule 0.9 BB/9 rate (including a nine-inning complete game). That was enough in the High-A Northwest League to receive their Pitcher of the Year award even though the Rockies promoted Sullivan in August to Double-A Hartford. Sullivan maintained his excellent run prevention against Eastern League hitters, throwing 32 innings across seven starts with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, a strong achievement for one of the younger pitchers in Double-A (the batter was older than him 80% of the time).

Recovery related to an offseason hip labrum surgery delayed Sullivan’s 2025 debut back at Hartford (where he was 2.7 years younger than average) to mid-May. In 18 starts and 97 1/3 innings with Hartford, Sullivan posted a 3.14 ERA (3.39 xFIP), 1.09 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 rate, and 2.2 BB/9 rate. Those numbers were trending better before Sullivan went to the IL briefly in August and was hit hard in his final four starts of the year (allowing 13 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings) after returning. Seven of Sullivan’s Double-A starts were quality starts, while Sullivan allowed just a .611 OPS to opposing hitters (with basically no platoon splits).

That was enough for Sullivan to get an invite to Major League spring training this year by the Rockies. He was assigned to Triple-A Albuquerque, where in a tough pitching environment the results took a step back. In 11 starts (three of them quality starts), Sullivan threw 54.2 innings with a 5.60 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 rate, and an uncharacteristic for him 3.3 BB/9 rate. The Rockies called up Sullivan for his Major League debut in mid-June against the A’s, where he threw three scoreless innings despite being “sick as a dog” beforehand). Unfortunately, Sullivan’s next four starts with the Rockies didn’t go so hot as he allowed five homers en route to a MLB line so far of an 8.87 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 rate, and 4.4 BB/9 rate in 22 1/3 innings (-0.4 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR). Sullivan went on the minor league IL in late July with left shoulder inflammation (no word on the severity yet).

Here’s some video of Sullivan striking out a bunch of dudes in 2025, many of them swinging:

What do the scouts say?

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Sullivan 7th in the system in February:

Sullivan had hip labrum surgery after the 2024 season and started the 2025 season about six weeks late, pitching well enough in Double A even though his fastball wasn’t 100 percent to where it was beforehand. Sullivan has never thrown hard; at his best, his fastball is 89-92 but the pitch misses bats thanks to a very low release point, over seven feet of extension (OK, that hurts my hip just thinking about it) and excellent ride on the pitch. He’s got an above-average slider with good tilt and an average changeup, going right after hitters like he’s throwing 98. Sullivan had a lot of outings last year where he was sitting in the upper 80s, and that won’t play, but if he’s even just 89-92 again, I think he’ll be a back-end starter. Side note: I really like watching this guy pitch.

MLB Pipeline slots Sullivan 21st in the system as a 40 FV player thanks to a 60 control grade and a 55 change-up:

Sullivan never had a big fastball, but it took another hit in 2025 as he was coming back from hip labrum surgery. The Rockies had held him back until early May to let him build back up, but he never quite got there. Somewhat amazingly, he found success in Double-A with a fastball that averaged around 86-87 mph and scraped 90 mph, using a combination of deception, angle and up-slope movement to the pitch to get outs. His upper-70s changeup is probably his best offering and while his mid-to-upper 70s slider can be slurvy, he manipulates the velocity and shape of it and it missed a fair amount of bats last year.

While the left-hander is never going to light up radar guns, there is hope that Sullivan can still find a few more ticks of velocity. For one thing, he had a normal offseason throwing program, rather than rehabbing his hip. For another, with the new pitching group in the fold, Sullivan might be able to get back to being more rotational like he was in college, and averaged 91-92 mph with his heater, as opposed to focusing on a deep hinge on his back side and getting a little stuck in his delivery.

FanGraphs is less of a believer due to the low fastball velocity, grading Sullivan as a 40 FV player (with a multi-inning relief role), 32nd in the org, albeit with a 70 future command grade:

Sullivan has just about every deceptive trick in the book. He has a huge crossfire, he hides the ball well, and his low slot gives him both a flat release angle and plus extension. Jarringly, for a tall drink of water without the world’s most fluid looking delivery, he’s got great command. He can hit all quadrants with his fastball and adeptly runs the sweeper on and off both sides of the plate. The change and slider give him a starter’s complement of pitches, and he’s had success out of the rotation through Double-A. He sits 86-88 and barely scrapes 90 in that role, though. While I’d love to project for it to work at the highest level, that’s too narrow of a tightrope for me, even before considering he’ll need to make the high-wire act work at Coors Field.

Sullivan sat in the low 90s in shorter stints this spring and had some pretty good Dodgers hitters off balance in a multi-inning relief outing a couple weeks back. Doing that in a once-through-the-order gig seems more sustainable, and it’s a particularly valuable job in Colorado, where there’s often a need to piggyback or otherwise bail out the starter.

When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?

Sullivan’s MLB debut marks the fifth so far from Colorado’s 2023 draft (joining Chase Dollander, Cole Carrigg, Kyle Karros, and Seth Halvorsen), with probably another one or two to come in Jack Mahoney and a player like Braylen Wimmer or Cade Denton. Sullivan’s fastball dominance has carried over to the minor leagues all the way up the ladder. The decreased fastball velocity is obviously a concern, though the development of a decent changeup and slider to pair with the fastball are certainly helpful.

Sullivan got knocked around in his first exposure to the Show and it’s possible that he might not be able to thrive in a starter’s role with mid-high 80s fastball velocity. In that situation, I’m still a believer that Sullivan’s handedness and funk mean he could succeed in a bullpen role as well. I ranked Sullivan 19th on my list as a 40 FV player because of the big league proximity and dominance despite the stuff quality diminishing, plus I want the Rockies to continue to think creatively with their pitching draftees.

Next, we’ll crack the top 20 of the mid-season 2026 PuRPs list!

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Welcome back to Monday Stat Party, a weekly series showcasing some of the most curious and nostalgia-inducing statistical developments from the past week of Mets baseball. What unites each entry is the sense of intrigue which they aim to spark, and the unbridled love of the game’s anomalies from which they arise. Without further ado, let the stat party begin.

MONDAY

The Mets scored five runs in an inning for the tenth time this season. Three of those instances have come against the Braves (July 5, July 27, August 10). It was the first time the Mets scored five runs in the first inning of a game since Opening Day against Paul Skenes and the Pirates.

Brett Baty’s grand slam was the first of his career, and his first home run in Atlanta since he homered in his first big-league at-bat on August 17, 2022.

TUESDAY

Nolan McLean began his outing with four no-hit innings for the third time this season, having previously done so on April 3 in San Francisco and April 21 against the Twins.

The Mets suffered their thirteenth shutout loss of the season, tying them with the Pirates for the most of any team in the majors.

The Mets recorded seven outs on batted balls of 100+ mph, tied for their second-most in a game this season behind a loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field on April 19 in which they hit eight.

WEDNESDAY

Zac Thornton became the first Mets pitcher with at least five quality starts in their first eight career games since Jacob deGrom. The only other Mets debuting since 2000 to accomplish that feat were Dillon Gee and Matt Harvey.

Thornton’s 2.78 ERA through eight career games is the 10th-best among Mets pitchers with a minimum of five innings per outing, behind: Nolan McLean (2.06), Nolan Ryan (2.09), Rick Aguilera (2.14), Masato Yoshii (2.25), Robert Gsellman (2.42), Tom Seaver (2.50), Jim McAndrew (2.53), Jason Jacome (2.67), and Tylor Megill (2.68).

FRIDAY

The Mets won the series-opener against the Nationals at Citi Field. They have now won seven straight series-openers against the Nats at home, and 10 of their last 11.

SATURDAY

The Mets saw 51 pitches in the first inning from the Nationals. That’s the most pitches they’ve seen in the first inning of a game since June 16, 1989, in Philadelphia, when they scored eight runs on 52 pitches against Phillies starter Bruce Ruffin. They blew the lead and trailed 10-9 three innings later in that game, but eventually came back to win 15-11. Since 1969, there was only one other time the Mets had pulled off a 51-pitch first inning, and it was one day shy of exactly 38 years earlier, on August 16, 1988, in San Francisco, when they scored nine runs in the first. 

Francisco Lindor recorded his seventh walk-off plate appearanceas a Met, tying him for fifth-most in franchise history behind Wilmer Flores (10), David Wright (9), Pete Alonso (9), and Kevin McReynolds (8).

Lindor’s walk-off single marked his 228th RBI at Citi Field, tying him with Brandon Nimmo for 2nd-most in the ballpark’s history behind Pete Alonso (350).

Carson Benge’s 98.1-mph throw to the plate was the 3rd-fastest outfield assist by a Mets player in the Statcast era (since 2015), trailing only a pair of other throws made by Benge earlier this season. (source: Sarah Langs on X)

Francisco Alvarez’s game-tying double was his 161st RBI as a catcher, moving him into sixth place in franchise history behind Mike Piazza (595), Todd Hundley (383), Jerry Grote (350), Gary Carter (333), and John Stearns (287).

Jefry Yan became the sixth Mets rookie to earn a win this season, along with Nolan McLean, Zac Thornton, Jonah Tong, Chayce McDermott, and Jonathan Pintaro. That ties them with the Twins and Angels for the most rookies on a team to earn a win this season. It also ties them for the fifth-most in franchise history, behind 1995 (9), 1983 (8), 1965 (7), and 2015 (7).

SUNDAY

Christian Scott struck out five or more batters for a 10th consecutive outing. He is one of only eight MLB pitchers with an active streak that long, along with Dylan Cease (30), Jacob Misiorowksi (23), Cam Schlittler (13), Jesús Luzardo (12), Gerrit Cole (11), Tarik Skubal (11), and Gavin Williams (10).

Carson Benge recorded his seventh assist of the season in right field, the fourth-most behind Wilyer Abreu (12), Jordan Walker (8), and Cam Smith (8).

After entering the week with zero career saves, Kodai Senga became the second Japanese-born player in MLB history to record a save in three consecutive appearances, joining Koji Uehera.

Bo Bichette recorded his 11th three-hit game of the season, tied for seventh-most in MLB behind Luis Arraez (14), Yordan Alvarez (13), Otto Lopez (13), Yandy Díaz (12), Michael Harris II (12), and Gunnar Henderson (12).

With a fourth-inning single, Jared Young extended his hitting streak to six games, marking the longest single-season hitting streak of his career.

Luis Torrens hit his fourth home run in seven games, something he hadn’t done since July 4, 2021, with the Mariners. He’s the first Mets catcher to do it since Francisco Alvarez on July 18, 2023.

The Mets have now swept the Nationals at Citi Field seven times in their past 13 series in New York, dating back to August 10-12, 2021.

Miscellaneous Mets stat of the week:

In the expansion era (since 1961), only 10 teams have won at least two-thirds of their games in a season, excluding the shortened 2020 season:

2022 Dodgers
2018 Red Sox
2001 Mariners
1998 Yankees
1995 Indians
1986 Mets
1975 Reds
1970 Orioles
1969 Orioles
1961 Yankees

The Mets and Yankees are the only two franchises to have a team on this list and to have eliminated a team on this list in the playoffs (the Mets defeated the 1970 Orioles in the World Series, while the Yankees defeated the 2001 Mariners in the ALCS).

On August 17, 2003, Jorge Posada went 0-2 with a pair of walks and the Yankees won 8-0. He turned 33 that day. The win moved the Yankees to 4-0 on his birthday when he was in the lineup (winning World Series titles in 1999 and 2000). They advanced to the Fall Classic in 2003, though they ignominiously fell to the Marlins. The next year, they lost 8-2 to the Twins (!!!) on Posada’s birthday. Two months after that loss, the unthinkable happened in the ALCS-that-shall-not-be-named. Coincidence? I think not.

Random anecdote aside, I am an unabashed Jorge Guy. I authored his entry for the Pinstripe Alley Top 100 Yankees of All-Time and I was one of the biggest Posada boosters on the staff, ranking him at No. 11 on my personal list. I have no regrets. In this house, we respect switch-hitting catchers who hit for power and average and who look like they would crawl barefoot over broken glass to win a baseball game.

Long after the Yankee dynasty ended, Posada was my guy when I played MLB The Show. For some reason, I murdered breaking balls when hitting left-handed with him. My now sister-in-law, who’s since become a Blue Jays fan (sigh), used to gleefully shout “Hip Hip, Jorge!” when the Yankee backstop went yard while we watched the Yanks play, even against Toronto.

I have a ton of fond memories of Posada and he’ll always be one of my favorite Yankees. It’s a pleasure to wish him a happy birthday (though I am about 99 percent sure he’ll never read this).

Name: Jorge Rafael Posada
Born: August 17, 1970 (Santurce, Puerto Rico)
Yankees Tenure: 1995-2011

Having written 3,000 words on Posada, it would be both repetitive and long-winded if I just dug back into his biography. Instead, I’ll use his birthday as a chance to reminisce on my two favorite moments in his long, decorated career. My apologies to The Flip Play, as I’ve seen enough fielding nincompoopery from Yankees over the years that I no longer take it for granted that Posada remained alert and in position to field Jeter’s absurd flip to the plate and tag Jeremy Giambi.

When I say Posada struck me as the type who would crawl barefoot over broken glass to win a game, I think back 20 years ago to a game against the Rangers, one we featured in our Top 25 Games of the Past 25 Years series.

After an inning and a half, the Yankees found themselves trailing 9-0. It would have been extremely easy for them to pack it up and head for the showers as soon as possible. Instead, we got a comeback for the ages, and Posada’s imprint was all over it. An RBI single in the third, a sacrifice fly in the fifth (the latter cut the deficit to 10-5). In the top of the sixth, future teammate Mark Teixeira obliterated him at home plate. Posada held onto the ball and saved a run from scoring.

Finally, trailing 13-12, in the bottom of the ninth representing the winning run, Posada put the finishing touches on one of his finest performances, in one of the most entertaining Yankees games in my lifetime. Take it away, John Sterling.

If you want to nitpick Posada, I guess you can point to his career postseason OPS being more than 100 points lower than his regular season (.745 vs .848). I’ll point out that he was playing in the playoffs after donning the tools of ignorance for months and absorbing incredible punishment. But it’s a fair criticism.

That doesn’t mean he is bereft of signature playoff moments. So, let’s talk about The Grady Little Game. We all know it. One of the greatest baseball games ever played in the playoffs.

The eighth inning. The only reason there was even hope was Jason Giambi’s two home runs off Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina’s three shutout innings in relief of Roger Clemens.

Then, Bernie knocked in Jeets. 5-3. A Godzilla double put runners on second and third for Posada who was 0-for-3 on the night. For his career, Pedro owned Jorge. Posada strode into the box that night 10-for-53 (.189) in his career against the Hall of Famer including the postseason, having whiffed 30 times.

Channeling his inner Wee Willie Keeler, Sado hit it where they weren’t. The wounded duck off his bat fell into a devil’s triangle in shallow center field. Bernie scored easily, waving Matsui around to follow him. Posada, as he rolled into second base, unleashed a primal scream as millions wanted catharsis in real time. We all know how the game ended. But Aaron Boone doesn’t get his chance at immortality without that eighth inning and one of the greatest single moments of Posada’s career.

The New York Yankees know a thing or two about having all-timers behind home plate. Posada is not the first pinstriped backstop to make himself forever part of franchise lore. Hopefully, he is not the last. I’m not old enough to have seen Thurmon Munson, let along Yogi, or Bill Dickey, legends all. For me, Jorge remains the gold standard of Yankees catchers in my lifetime. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I am going to see if I can dig up MLB The Show 09.

Happy 56^th birthday, Jorge Posada.

As the regular season nears its end in MLB, it’s time to turn the focus away from who can reach the playoffs and instead hone in on who can win it all. In modern baseball it’s clear that not all division winners are the same, and a 100-win Wild Card team shouldn’t be the underdog against a 92-win division champ.

But wins and losses alone don’t give the full picture at the end of the regular season. As of publish the Detroit Tigers would be on the outside looking in on the playoffs. While just a game out of the final Wild Card spot, there are two other teams still ahead of them trying to catch the Baltimore Orioles, including the last place Toronto Blue Jays. Normally this could just be chalked up to a sub-par A.L. Central, but the Tigers might not be as bad as their record indicates. Detroit has a +83 run differential, meaning they have scored 83 more runs this season than they have allowed. That’s good enough for second best in the A.L. behind only the New York Yankees.

Run Differential has been a good indicator for which teams can win a World Series, but that may just be a correlation as the most talented teams that win the most tend to have the best run differential. But for a team like Detroit, could they play spoiler in the postseason if the ball bounces their way a few more times than it has in the regular season? If enough of those one-run losses turn into wins the Tigers might have a real shot at making a deep postseason run. If the standings hold, that last Wild Card spot would play the Boston Red Sox who sport a run differential of +81, remarkably close to where the Tigers sit. If they get by Boston, all of a sudden the path to the ALCS looks a lot easier with the Chicago White Sox (+47) waiting for them.

There are, to be fair, a whole lot of “ifs” in that scenario. But if run differential supports arguments for who is the best, it’s not too far of a leap to have it explain the future for the rest of the postseason as well.

Be on the lookout for results to this survey and the rest of the SB Nation Reacts surveys later this week.

Right-handed reliever Ron Marinaccio was designated for assignment by the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 3rd as the NL Central rivals of the Cincinnati Reds needed 40-man roster spots for other acquisitions. The Reds, meanwhile, had openings on their own 40-man roster after dealing away Caleb Ferguson and Nathaniel Lowe, and scooped up Marinaccio off waivers to help add depth to their beat-up bullpen.

That marriage simply did not work out.

The Reds themselves designated Marinaccio for assignment on Monday morning, doing so after the righty walked 3 and served up a dinger in an ugly 5-run 9th inning performance on Sunday in the series finale against the Miami Marlins. He allowed earned runs in each of his four appearances with the Reds (10 ER total in just 5.1 IP), and now finds himself back on the waiver wire.

The Reds announced the move prior to Monday’s doubleheader against the St. Louis Cardinals, noting that they were adding reliever Zach McCambley to the roster as the 27th man for the day while adding lefty Kent Emanuel to both the 40-man and active rosters to replace Marinaccio.

Emanuel, 34, is a veteran of two separate big league seasons with two different clubs. Back in 2021, he broke in with the Houston Astros and pitched to a 2.55 ERA (albeit with a 5.49 FIP), in a small 17.2 IP sample. He bounced through the systems of the Philadelphia Phillies, Pirates, and Marlins after that before returning to the big leagues with Miami for another 17.2 IP stint in 2024. He threw in indy ball in 2026 before landing with Louisville for a single 6.0 IP outing, and now finds himself back in the bigs with Cincinnati.

Emanuel will start the first game of Monday’s doubleheader against the St. Louis Cardinals as the two clubs begin a five-game series.

The state of the pitching staff right now is, shall we say, not very bueno.

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A fresh week is here, so let's get after it!

Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, which include a double-dip selection of the St. Louis Cardinals in their doubleheader vs. the Cincinnati Reds.

Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks on Monday, Aug. 17.

MLB moneyline picks for August 17

Matchup	Pick
Cardinals vs Reds (Game 1)	-113
Orioles vs Rays	+147
Marlins vs Phillies	+223
Cardinals vs Reds (Game 2)	-117
Tigers vs Pirates	-106
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox	+133
Padres vs Mets	+113
A's vs Royals	+174
Braves vs Twins	-122
White Sox vs Cubs	+147
Dodgers vs Rockies	+239

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-17.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 17

Cardinals vs Reds Game 1: Cardinals (-113)

Cardinals win probability: 53%

Are the St. Louis Cardinals coming off a big series win over the Cubs? Of course, but that should not shy us away from backing the team clearly performing at a higher level. The Cincinnati Reds own a 69 wRC+, .247 wOBA and .611 OPS over their last 12 games, while the Cardinals have posted a 122 wRC+, .344 wOBA and .782 OPS during that same stretch.

To add insult to injury, the Reds send out Chase Petty, who owns a 9.00 ERA, 8.88 xERA, and 2.25 WHIP over his last three starts.

It is the Cardinals or nothing in Game 1.

Orioles vs Rays: Orioles (+147)

Orioles win probability: 40%

The Tampa Bay Rays have been dangerous all season long, and they still are, owning a 132 wRC+ over their last 12 games. However, their lack of hard contact, which has been an issue throughout 2026, is a concern against a lineup generating a 45% hard-hit rate and 11% barrel rate over its last 12 games, while sporting a 117 wRC+.

Shane McClanahan has been regressing over his last three outings and is coming off an IL stint. Brandon Young has also scuffled, but the Birds have been swinging a hot bat. At nearly +150, this is worth dabbling on. 

Marlins vs Phillies: Marlins (+223)

Marlins win probability: 31%

From a moneyline price standpoint, nobody should be looking to pay $2.28 for a team to secure a regular-season win, especially when Janson Junk has been tossing some filth over his last five outings. The former punching bag owns a 3.97 ERA over his last five, but in his last three starts, he has posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

We all know how great Cristopher Sanchez has been this season. However, he has struggled with walks, and the Miami Marlins have been pretty disciplined at the dish, owning a 10% walk rate over their last 12 games. If they can get ducks on the pond and drive them in, they have a chance.

Cardinals vs Reds Game 2: Cardinals (-117)

Cardinals win probability: 54%

Real simple: I am not backing an ice-cold offense just because its starter has some solid underlying metrics across his last three starts. On the other side, the Cardinals have a pitcher who owns a 1.80 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last five outings.

Take the hot team in both games today.

Tigers vs Pirates: Tigers (-106)

Tigers win probability: 52%

Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski owns a 9.72 ERA, 7.43 xERA, and 2.16 WHIP over his last three starts. Meanwhile, Framber Valdez has improved over his last three, owning a 2.75 ERA while limiting opponents to a 5% barrel rate.

The Tigers' bats have gone cold, but there is no reason to trust an arm with a near 10.00 ERA.

Go Tigers.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox: Diamondbacks (+133)

Diamondbacks win probability: 43%

The Boston Red Sox's fall from grace has been very sad to watch, but getting the Arizona Diamondbacks at +133 with Mitch Bratt on the bump feels like a steal.

The Arizona southpaw has a 1.50 ERA, 2.49 xERA, and 0.89 WHIP over his last three starts, and has also done a great job limiting hard-hit balls and barrels.

Brayan Bello has had a great turnaround over his last five. However, the Red Sox offense continues to cool off, and there is far more value on the Diamondbacks with how hot their bats have been as well.

Padres vs Mets: Padres (+113)

Padres win probability: 47%

The San Diego Padres being a short underdog on the road feels a little odd. Their lineup is on fire, owning a sub-20% strikeout rate, while posting a 127 wRC+ and .808 OPS over the last 30 days. They draw New York Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, who has a 4.15 ERA over his last three starts.

Walker Buehler has been solid for the Friars over his last five starts, posting a 3.20 ERA while limiting hard-hit balls and barrels.

At +113, the Padres are the pick.

A's vs Royals: Athletics (+174)

Athletics win probability: 36%

Question for the reader: should the 2026 Kansas City Royals ever be a $1.78 favorite? No.

Sure, Michael Wacha owns a 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three starts, while Mason Barnett has an 8.78 ERA during that stretch.

However, the Athletics' offense has been heating up over their last six games, owning a 131 wRC+, .820 OPS, and .217 ISO. The Royals, during that same stretch, have posted just a 58 wRC+, .112 ISO and .255 wOBA.

Give me the dog.

Braves vs Twins: Braves (-122)

Braves win probability: 55%

Braves southpaw Martin Perez has been lights out over his last five starts, owning a 1.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. With Bailey Ober on the rubber for the Twins, the Braves are the lean here.

Ober sports a 5.41 xERA over his last three starts while allowing a near 15% barrel rate to opposing hitters. With how dangerous the Atlanta bats can be, they should be able to handle anything Ober offers.

White Sox vs Cubs: White Sox (+147)

White Sox win probability: 40%

Sure, some will see Luis Castillo and rush to bet the Chicago Cubs this evening. But are we forgetting that Shota Imanaga has a 4.71 xERA over his last three starts? Both starters could be in for a long evening with how hot both lineups have been.

Tonight will come down to which bullpen can hold it down, and the Cubs' bullpen has been atrocious all season, owning a 4.47 xERA and 4.52 FIP while allowing a 41.41% hard-hit rate.

The never-say-die Chicago White Sox look tasty on the North Side.

Dodgers vs Rockies: Rockies (+239)

Rockies win probability: 30%

Reread the first sentence for the Marlins vs. Phillies breakdown.

The Los Angeles Dodgers' offense has been very cold over their last 12 games, posting just an 87 wRC+, .293 wOBA, and .660 OPS. The Rockies have been no better, but at least they are drawing more walks and limiting strikeouts.

Tomoyuki Sugano is a punching bag, but he has done a great job limiting walks and hard-hit balls as of late. Blake Snell is back and looked fantastic in his first start coming off the injured list, but I am hoping for some regression here. If he does, I like the Rockies to take advantage.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Worcester: L, 6-9 (BOX SCORE)

One thing you may notice reading Sunday’s Minor Lines is that offense was aplenty, but the pitching was pretty lackluster. In most cases, it’s not much of a cause for concern. But in the WooSox’s loss to Buffalo (Blue Jays AAA) in the series finale, it may have altered a trajectory a little bit.

Let me explain: John Holobetz has been serviceable across two levels this season in addition to working his way up the organization in 2025. The 24-year-old makes his bread and butter in the top end of the strike zone with a 94 MPH heater that has some room for development, but the righty was pitching well enough that it was feasible he could become an option down the stretch and develop the pitch while in the Majors, as it’s clear he has good control of that pitch and a reliable repertoire. With Patrick Sandoval struggling in the bigs, it looked possible that he could be called on to help out at some point this season.

On Sunday, Holobetz gave up six runs on six hits in just eight outs. His ERA stands at almost 6 in Worcester, albeit in an extremely limited sample size. But we’ve seen this movie a few times, folks; I don’t want to see a guy debuting while struggling to keep runners off the basepaths in Triple-A, even against a talented Buffalo lineup. One does not have to roam far mentally to wonder if Anthony Eyansson would be seeing some time in Worcester by now had he not been dealt at the trade deadline as part of the Adley Rutschman deal, but one would also take some respite in the fact that Craig Breslow has been incredibly good at scouting pitchers in his time with the Red Sox organization thus far and that another Eyansson may not be far behind. Is it Holobetz, whom the team acquired for Quinn Priester in 2025? Almost certainly not in the same way; they’re not the same caliber of talent, won’t be used the same way, and don’t have the same strengths. But, if Sandoval continues to struggle, the Sox will need to call on someone down the stretch.

Also, to those wondering why shortstop wasn’t addressed during the busy trade deadline the club had, the likely reason if not the biggest benefactor of that had his first action since May on Sunday. He went 1-2 with a double. In this floundering lineup, at his best, Trevor Story is someone who can add some pop. But Story can be streaky as well, so here’s hoping September 2026 Story can be similar to end of 2025 Story – a guy who the team counted on to get a big hit or at least be a sound fielder.

While the WooSox took some time to drum up some offense on a rehabbing Spencer Arrighetti, who the Blue Jays acquired for Daulton Varsho, a home run by a raking Mikey Romero (at least lately) and a very late shot by Jason Delay should have sealed the deal for Worcester, but instead they were left scrambling to overcome an early deficit given up by Holobetz and Devin Sweet. But, it’s better that type of performance happens in Worcester than in Boston, er, Pittsburgh this weekend.

Portland: L, 6-8 (BOX SCORE)

Jack Winnay’s seventeenth homer of 2026 and sixth in Double-A. One other single early in the game. Two more hits by a slumping Will Turner and Henry Godbout, just the infielder’s second since his promotion last week. There was not a ton of offense Sunday, but the team made the most of drawing five walks in the finale against Binghamton (Mets AA) and plating those walks, as they went 3-for-8 with runners in scoring position. Sadly, though, this was a bullpen game, Reidis Sena didn’t make it out of the first before giving up a home run, Morgan McSweeney allowed four runs and as many hits, and the Sea Dogs’ lack of later offense came back to bite them as the RumblePonies broke a 6-6 tie in the eighth and stayed on top.

Salem: L, 5-8 (BOX SCORE)

Jose Bello at least made it through four innings in Delmarva (Orioles A) but he let two home runs out of the park and, stop me if you’ve heard this before, left Salem playing catchup earlier than desired. Kleyvar Salazar put the game within striking distance with his tenth home run of 2026 in the seventh inning, but that hit was the only one with runners on the RidgeYaks achieved all afternoon, and that puncher’s chance become very slim as the game grew longer.

2026 MLB Playoffs Tiebreakers: The American League Wild Card race is a free-for-all right now, particularly as it relates to the third and final seed.

The Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins are all within a game or so of the final Wild Card spot. The Seattle Mariners, who Fangraphs projects as having the best winning percentage in the American League the rest of the way, are just a few games back.

The Houston Astros are in first place in the American League West, up by two games on the Rangers and fourgames on the Mariners, so the A.L. West is still in play, which puts Houston in among the potential Wild Card vie-ees.

The Chicago White Sox are currently in first place, up by 5.5 games in the American League Central, but are arguably playing over their heads and could fade, putting them in the Wild Card mix and Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota in the hunt for the American League Central.

Given all that, it seems like a good time to review the tiebreaker rules for the playoffs, and where things stand for the Rangers in regards to those tiebreakers. Yes, its certainly possible that the Rangers fall apart down the stretch and are just playing out the string the final week. Its also certainly possibly (though, I think its fair to say, less likely) the Rangers go on a heater and are in a solid place in terms of the playoffs come the final week, or weekend, of the season, and thus we won’t have to worry about tiebreakers because Texas is safe.

So yeah, this could all be moot. But its a Monday off day in the second half of August, so let’s look at it.

First as a reminder, we no longer have Game 163s when teams are tied for a playoff spot. No winner-take-all technically-regular-season-but-effectively-a-playoff +1s after the final weekend. If there’s a tie at the end of the year, we go to the tiebreaker system.

MLB.com has the full rundown of how the tiebreaker system works, which you can read in full, if you’d like.

If there’s a tie between two teams, the team with the best head-to-head record advances.

If the head-to-head record is a tie, then the team with the best record in games among division opponents advances. That would theoretically mean that the Rangers, playing in the weak A.L. West, would have an advantage if they were tied with an A.L. East team, since the East has the teams with the three best records in the A.L. right now. However, the Rangers have been ass against A.L. West teams this year, so that doesn’t really help them.

If both teams have the same intradivision record, then whichever team has the best record against American League* teams post-All Star Break advances.

* Because we are talking about the American League playoffs. If we were dealing with the National League playoffs, it would be the National League playoffs.

If both teams have the same post-ASB record against the American League, then you go to each team’s last game against an A.L. opponent before the All Star Break. If one team won and the other team lost, the team that won advanced. If both teams won their last game against an A.L. opponent pre-ASB, or both teams lost, you go to the game before that, and if necessary keep repeating until you get to where one team won and the other team lost.

The Rangers beat the Astros in the final game before the All Star Break, incidentally, so they have that going for them, on the off chance that particular tiebreaker comes into play.

If three teams are tied, and they have identical records against each other, then you use the above tiebreaking system, beginning with intradivision record, except that you don’t use an additional game if the additional game was between two of the teams.

If three teams are tied, and they do not all have the same records against each other, then if one team won the season series against each of the other two teams, that team advances.

If no team won the season series against the other two teams, then whichever team had the best overall winning percentage against the other two teams advances.

If two of the teams are tied for the best winning percentage, the third team is out, and the two remaining teams apply the two-team tiebreaker methodology listed above.

If all the teams have the same winning percentage, then the system outlined above when all three teams have the same record against each other is applied.

If four teams tie, then the same system as with three teams is used, except that, if two or three teams of the four teams are tied for the best record after a step, then the other team(s) are dropped, and you shift to the two- or three-team tiebreaker method.

If your brain hasn’t been broken by all that, let’s look at where the Rangers stand in terms of tiebreakers against their potential opponents:

Against Houston:

The Rangers lost the season series against Houston, 4-9. If the Rangers are in a two-way tie with Houston, Houston advances.

Against Seattle:

The Rangers have clinched the season series with the Mariners, being up 7-3 with three games in Seattle to go. If the Rangers are in a two-way tie with Seattle, the Rangers advance.

However, Seattle has clinched the season series against the Astros, 9-2, with two games in Seattle to go.

So if there’s a three-way tie for the American League West, if the Rangers and Astros both sweep Seattle, the Rangers would have the best record in the games amongst the three teams (14-12 for Texas, 12-14 for Seattle, 13-13 for Houston), and would advance.

Against Detroit:

The Rangers lost the season series to the Tigers, 2-4. If the Rangers are in a two-way tie with Detroit, Detroit advances.

Against Minnesota:

The Rangers are 0-3 against the Twins this season, and play their final three games of the season in Minnesota. Thus, the Rangers would lose any tiebreaker against the Twins unless they were three games back of Minnesota heading into the final weekend, and then swept the Twins. That would mean the season series would be tied 3-3, and we’d go to intra-divisional record.

Against Cleveland:

The Rangers won the season series against Cleveland, 4-2. If the Rangers are in a two-way tie with Cleveland, the Rangers advance.

Against Toronto:

The Rangers have clinched the season series against Toronto, being up 4-0 with three games in Texas in late September to go. If the Rangers are in a two-way tie with Toronto, the Rangers advance.

Against Baltimore:

The Rangers won the season series against Baltimore, 4-2. If the Rangers are in a two-way tie with Baltimore, the Rangers advance.

Against the ChiSox:

The Rangers are trailing in the season series with the White Sox, 1-2. They have three games in Chicago against the White Sox next week. They need to sweep to win the season series, and go 2-1 to split the season series.

Boston, the Yankees, and the Rays are far enough ahead that the chances of them ending up in a tiebreaker with the Rangers is slight. Still, in the interest of being thorough, we’ll talk about them, as well.

Against Boston:

The Rangers are trailing in the season series with the Red Sox, 1-2. They have three games against Boston in Arlington in mid-September. They need to sweep to win the season series, and go 2-1 to split the season series.

Against the Yankees:

The Rangers lost the season series to the Yankees, 2-4. If the Rangers are in a two-way tie with the Yankees, the Yankees advance.

AgainstTampa:

The Rangers are trailing in the season series with the Rays, 1-2. They have four games against Tampa in Arlington in early-September. They need to win at least 3 of 4 to win the season series against Tampa. Otherwise, Tampa will win the season series.

What a wonderful show we have for you this week, not only did we have the faboulously talented Stefan Caray, but we also witnessed the return of the GREAT Scott Plaza! Gabe and I were there too. Kidding aside, this episode featured a couple of conversational elements some readers had been asking for, there is discourse and disagreement, and there is a lot more of a conversational flow rather than a direct interview style. Yes, its an hour long, but none of us noticed the length of time until about 45 minutes into the episode, and we hope you find yourself just as engaged!

Stefan, of course, is the son of the Cardinals lead broadcaster Chip Caray, but also has spent years earning his stripes in Amarillo and is ready for whatever the future holds. He will be on the broadcast during the next homestand when the Cardinals take on the Baltimore Orioles.

This weeks show, we talk about the unforgettable Baez debut, Alec Burleson, Blaze Jordan vs Nolan Gorman, and we finish the show with a conversation centered around Jordan Walker and what another hot stretch could mean for the Cardinals playoff push down the stretch.

I apologize for no transcript again this week, I was up well past midnight last night editing this episode and by that point, in order to function properly the next day I had to sacrifice the transcript again. If anyone knows of any transcript editing tools that are cheap/free and are reliable, please share them with me, Id love to continue providing one, It is just an extensive project on top of the already extensive process that comes along with the scheduling, prep, recording, and editing process that already takes place. Thanks in advance!

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-thanks for listening

Coming out of the corn and playing the Twins may have been a salve the Phillies needed after looking like they would rather have been anywhere else that St. Louis this past week.

Three up

Alec Bohm – Vegetables are a good thing to eat. As a father of younger children, I know the pain of getting them to eat vegetables, coming up with all kinds of creative ways to make sure they get their nutrition. I myself prefer my vegetables raw, not particularly caring for them to be cooked, but I’d imagine that’s the best way to eat them anyway. Whilst in Iowa, the Phillies were surrounded by corn. Maybe that surrounding did something to Bohm as he hit .550/.571/.900, buoyed by his five hit game Saturday night. Listen, whatever it takes, man.

Aaron Nola – Listen. Nola has been pretty good of late. The expectations placed on his game have changed dramatically over the years as we have had to watch him adjust to this portion of his career. His start in Iowa where he allowed one run over five innings is about all we can ask of him at this point. Should he continue to do this through the rest of his contract – five to six innings each time, keeping the team in the game, maybe mixing in a few stellar outings – that deal may not turn out so bad after all. It’s a big ask.

Left handed aces – Cristopher Sanchez is an ace, there is no doubt. John Stolnis made the case that Jesus Luzardo should be considered the same. Combined this week, they showed why the Phillies will be a tough out if they should make the playoffs as they each had sterling starts on the mound.

Three down

Zack Wheeler – There are times when the ace has a clunker and this week was it. Wheeler’s start in St. Louis wasn’t the one we would have expected, landing him amongst the shattered ruins of bad weeks, but a bounceback start at home is likely imminent. It would have been nice of him to have a better start, but he didn’t.

J.T. Realmuto – An unsightly one hit over the week means there are triple slash lines that might be considered NSFW. Might be time to start asking that question again about sitting him more often, especially in these dog days of the baseball schedule.

Baseball – I get that money is a thing that MLB craves from wherever they can get it. Any kind of money they can get for whatever they can market and sell, they are going to chase. But to place the Field of Dreams game on Netflix, where a lot of people couldn’t watch it? Silly.