
If you were writing the script of the Cubs season, I’m sending it back for re-writes. My son, not particularly a baseball fan, has found the path to conversation is being the sounding board for what I’m going to write. He’s always asking what the gist of my story is going to be about. Given that he’s not much a baseball guy, I often use non-baseball analogies. Here, I explained my thinking: “It is Empire Strikes Back for too long. You have to eventually get to Return of the Jedi.” If we’re at the movies or binging this on Netflix, you eventually leave or change the proverbial channel. No one wants to be watching the villains winning ad infinitum. The worm needed to turn.
Elsewhere, on social media I said it that the last 13 games was basically useless time. If you are a daily follower, you’ll have seen me recently yawning about a blowout win. Over the previous 13 games, the Cubs had lost nine games and had four blow-out wins. Totally useless. First off, there probably aren’t going to be 17-2 games in the playoffs. It’s not going to get that sideways. But if it does, we can do that. The Cubs are incredibly adept at piling on when the other team starts going sideways. They’ve been good at that for years and with souped up Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman post-fountain of youth, they are elite at it now. They can pile fast. And their pitchers seem to thrive in that environment. Yeah, who among us is surprised that marginal pitchers become good pitchers when they can pitch downhill and attack?
Ironically, this was exactly the game I was talking about yesterday. Offense bad, pitching good. For one, that’s where the Brewers try to take the game. They don’t want to slugfest with anyone. They want to play fundamental baseball and beat you with pitching and defense. Their offense, is incredibly adept at playing downhill. They are a quintessential sum of the parts better than the individual pieces offense. I’m sure I’m being equal parts flippant and naive, but it feels like they’ve got one maybe two players at best that the Dodgers or Yankees would chase from a position player standpoint. And yet, year after year that offense produces. And produces better than anyone expected.
This game matters because they beat the Brewers at the Brewers’ game. The Cub pitching was a little better which is saying something given that the Brewers held the Cubs to three hits. Three hits, one walk, no hits after the third inning. That’s elite. And the Cubs found a way to win. Here’s the thing, from a practical standpoint, the Brewers did what they needed to do in this series. Four days off of the calendar, no ground yielded. The division is over. The Brewers will never self destruct the way it would take to blow this lead. That’s the reality. They are going to win the division. Their battle is finishing the adventure and getting the No. 1 seed. In a world where the seeds hold, they get the Wild Card winner while the Dodgers and Braves have to slug it out against each other. That’s their objective. Don’t have to beat both the Dodgers and Braves to get to the Series.
But I will say this. The Cubs got everything they needed out of this series. They left a lot that they wanted behind. No question. It’s not an exciting pill to swallow a split and the cold reality of having to go the Wild Card route and risk not getting into longer series. But check these things out.
On Monday, the Cubs posted 17 runs. The first eight of that was in a competitive game against a guy who will probably start playoff games. On Monday, Clay Holmes shoved. The Cubs got good starting pitching. That pitching stifled the Brewer offense. And it got lopsided so the Cubs didn’t have to use their leverage guys. On Tuesday, Matthew Boyd was up and down. His line wasn’t great at the end of the day. Also, that game was 3-1 Cubs after four. Now that pitcher probably throws long relief for the Brewers in the postseason. So not HUGE. But there were positives in that loss. On Wednesday? They hung the worst start of the year on the Miz. Of course, for the second straight day, their pitching staff just gave it all away.
For three days, the Cubs offense showed it could score runs against the vaunted Brewers starters. Check. Now Kevin Gausman, the other big trade deadline addition, you know, the one with World Series experience, finished this series. He finished the series with an exclamation point. Seven innings of one run ball. Yeah, that’s what I’m talking about. Nine strikeouts against a contact oriented team. Yes, please. More of that. And then the Ryans, Zeferjahn and Rollison came in and closed the door.
The Brewers split the series and that’s a win for them. But there were silver linings. Survive the back six of this 13 straight, then lock down the top Wild Card spot in the sprint to the finish. Take care of business against a Marlins team that is fighting to stay alive. It feels like we always catch them when they are playing with extra motivation. Oh yeah, now that we got this 2-1 win in the bag, feel free to get another blow-out win over the weekend. I’m sure after three days of fighting for inches that a good old fashioned clobbering would feel excellent. Though I’ll still be back here hoping there’s another 3-2 or 2-1 win in there.
Holmes and Gausman and throw a roster full of relievers at them. That can win a Wild Card round series. Hopefully Boyd and David Peterson can keep two other games close. You’re going to have all four of them on short leashes and that fleet of relievers. Also, don’t mess up. Get Javier Assad onto the playoff roster. I know what the metrics and your instincts tell you about him. I see it loud and clear. There’s going to be a game that’s skidding out sideways. Hand him the ball and turn him loose. Over and over again through his career he’s outproduced what your numbers and your instincts tell you to expect. If he fails? It was already skidding out, right?
Three Positives:
- Kevin Gausman. The last time he threw seven innings and struck out nine or more batters was a complete-game shutout against the Astros last September. Everything the team needed, right when they needed it. I’ve seen him say he might retire. I respect a guy who doesn’t want to hang around, but I see a guy who can pitch at least one more year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong. We needed two runs to win and Pete gave them to us. “Perils” of playing on a strong offensive team, but I believe this to be the first time Pete has driven in all of the runs in a Cub win since May 1, 2024. He drove in the only run in a 1-0 win against the Mets in New York. One more iconic achievement in his season. His next iconic moment should be his 40th homer.
- Ryan Zeferjahn. It says a lot about the start to his Cubs career that I was much more comfortable with Ryan Rolison of the two late relievers. But Zeferjahn has struggled more AND got to face the three most dangerous Brewer hitters and got them all. Rolison had a save before, we remain at 13 different Cubs with a save. But Zeferjahn is a candidate for No. 14. Justin Steele or Edward Cabrera are other off the wall options now entering the radar. Or Shelby Miller. Another pickup that was laughed at when it was made.
Game 141, September 3: Cubs 2, Brewers 1 (79-62)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Kevin Gausman (.362). 7 IP, 27 BF, 5 H, BB, R, 9 K (W 4-1)
- Hero: Ryan Rolison (.166). IP, 3 BF (Sv 2)
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong/Ryan Zeferjahn. (.123). PCA: 1-4, HR, R, 2RBI. Zeferjahn: IP, 0 R, K.
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ian Happ (-.074). 0-3
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.058). 0-3
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.043). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s third inning two-run homer with one out for the game’s first two runs. (.200)
Brewers Play of the Game: Andrew Vaughn’s solo homer with two outs in the fourth cut it to one. (.105)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 140 Winner: Alex Bregman received 50 of 54 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Alex Bregman +27
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +26
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Javier Assad +12
- Carson Kelly +10.
- Edward Cabrera -12.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Nico Hoerner -15
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -17.5
Scoreboard Watching: Brewers lost (8 up on Cubs). Everyone else except the Dodgers was off. So the Cubs gain half a game on everyone while they all get to rest. Hopefully a lot of them lose when the Cubs get their reciprocal day off because they had the same number of games played as just everyone. Now they’ve played one more than many teams. The Dodgers were losing early in the late game, staring down a potential sweep by the Cardinals. The Dodgers have a soft September schedule, but aren’t a lot more likely than the Cubs to catch the Brewers. The Braves are a bit of a toss up. The permutation you want is one where the Dodgers are the first Brewer opponent. Then you only have to beat one of them to get to the Series. Beating one is a monumental task. Beating both of them would probably take a miracle.
Up Next: The Cubs travel to Miami. The Marlins are 71-70 and actually only three back of the Wild Card.
I’ve not seen anything to suggest that Shōta Imanaga (8-10, 4.01) won’t be taking his turn in Miami. The numbers still don’t look as bad as it has felt, with 2-2 and a 4.33 over his last seven. Last time out, he allowed six runs in five innings of work while losing to the Reds. Miami should be a decent place to start for him.
The Marlins start 30-year-old righty Janson Junk (6-8. 4.11). Junk is 2-2 with a 2.15 over his last seven appearances, which includes one turn out of the bullpen. He’s thrown six innings once since the start of August, in a start against the Pirates. That was also his last win, back on August 12. He was a Brewers reliever in May of 2024 when he last pitched against the Cubs.
The Marlins are 10th in team OPS, making them a really far below the radar top third offensive team (by at least one metric). They are also 11th in team ERA. That’s a really narrow basket of stats, but suggests they should be a bit better than their record probably. The Marlins bullpen is 14th in ERA (two spots behind the vaunted Cub bullpen). Their bullpen is sixth in WHIP. So you’re not going to just roll them late. This is a solid, if unspectacular team and will be a good challenge this weekend.
Fangraphs has the Cubs with an edge in all three games this weekend, with the Friday one being by an eyelash and the Saturday one topping out at 55.7 percent. For what it is worth, FG had the Cubs winning this Thursday game against the Brewers. It most definitely does not like the Cubs at any point in the Milwaukee series ahead. But have to take care of business here and then try to slay some dragons.











