Five things that must go right for Giants to exceed 2025 expectations originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
SAN FRANCISCO — The entrance to the home clubhouse at Oracle Park was remodeled in recent months, with new lights ringing the doors to provide a bit more ambience should the Giants choose to once again celebrate wins by turning the room into a nightclub. New carpeting was put in, and it extends all the way down to a food court behind home plate. The biggest change, though, is just inside the doors.
If you walked into the clubhouse a year ago, the first thing you saw on the right was the analysts’ office, along with a mural and a TV that mostly just showed still photos. The analysts have been moved elsewhere, and that wall now features a recessed case with three World Series trophies.
The messaging is as clear as it gets, and Buster Posey’s fingerprints are all over the changes, along with those trophies, of course.
It’s been over a decade, though, since the third one was acquired, and during that time period the Giants have made the postseason just twice. Outside of that clubhouse, the expectation is that things won’t be much better this season.
FanGraphs projects the Giants at 80 wins and in fourth place for a third straight season. PECOTA sees them at just 77 wins, well behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres.
The Giants, of course, envision things differently. They were optimistic heading into camp and then posted the best record in baseball during the spring. They believe that will carry over, but a lot will have to go right for them to get back into the postseason for the first time since the president of baseball operations was the catcher.
Here are five that stand out if the Giants are to exceed expectations.
Just Like The Old Days
Early last spring, Alex Cobb looked around the clubhouse at Scottsdale Stadium and said he felt the Giants could have one of the best rotations in baseball. At the deadline, Farhan Zaidi infamously insisted the group could be the best in baseball down the stretch. Both times, it was easy to see why there was so much faith.
In February, Cobb was well ahead of schedule from his rehab, and the hope was that he would soon join Logan Webb and Blake Snell atop the rotation. Months later, Cobb was sent to Cleveland, but Zaidi watched Robbie Ray dominate the Dodgers in his return from Tommy John, and Snell was throwing better than anyone in baseball. Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong had shown flashes, too.
The confidence wasn’t totally misplaced, but the 2024 Giants ended up finishing 18th in ERA, fifth in FIP and 29th in innings pitched. At times, it was a very good group, but at times, it seemed like the rotation went two-deep. This season, you can expect some similar proclamations about how good this rotation might be, and to stay in contention, the starters need to actually live up to the hype.
The Giants believe they will have one of the best rotations in baseball. Webb is followed by Ray — who looked like the Cy Young-winning version this spring — and Justin Verlander, who is healthy and confident he will turn back the clock. He won’t contend for a fourth Cy Young, but all spring he looked like someone capable of matching his 3.22 ERA in 27 starts from 2023. Jordan Hicks gave the Giants two good months last year before running out of gas, and he bulked up over the winter.
Landen Roupp won the final spot with an outstanding spring, and Birdsong will get his shot, too. Harrison’s velocity returned late in camp, a positive sign.
If you open the season with Birdsong and Harrison as your sixth and seventh starters, you’re in better shape than most of baseball. Keaton Winn, the Carsons, Mason Black and others will provide enough depth that the word “opener” likely won’t be said all year.
On paper, the rotation has a ton of potential, but it can’t just be about hypotheticals. This needs to be a top-three rotation in the NL in terms of results if the Giants are going to get back to October.
Win The Coin Flips
The Giants finished 24-24 in one-run games last year, which generally fit the vibe of their season. They were three games over .500 at home and five games under on the road. They were exactly .500 in interleague play and they were 26-26 against the other four teams in the NL West.
The easiest way to improve those overall numbers would be to flip that first category, and they have a key roster component. Close games are won or lost by bullpens, and they could have one of the best late-game trios in baseball. Ryan Walker was dominant last year, Tyler Rogers is as consistent as it gets, and Camilo Doval looked this spring like the pitcher who made the All-Star team, not the one who was optioned back to Triple-A.
There’s plenty of right-handed depth, although this could all go off the rails if Erik Miller, the only lefty in the bullpen, misses any time. At the moment, Miller is set to mix in with the top three to get Bob Melvin through the final three to four innings in every close game.
Melvin knows better than anyone how important it is to win the coin flips. His Padres were a massive disappointment in 2023 in large part because they went 2-12 in extra innings and 9-23 in one-run games.
“We want to be that team that — if we’re in the game and it’s close at the end — we want to be able to scratch across that run,” Melvin said. “Our starters get us through ‘x’ amount of innings, we have some veterans at the top of (the rotation), and then the bullpen holds it there. That’s been successful in our ballpark.”
Situational Success
The RBI is back, or at least that’s the plan. Posey and Melvin talk openly about “RBI guys,” and they got one of the best in the NL in Willy Adames. He’s comfortable in big spots, and the hope is that he can come close to matching last season’s 112 RBI, which was 34 more than anyone in orange and black.
Adames can’t be alone, though. The Giants spent all spring working on situational hitting, with hitting coach Pat Burrell taking the lead. BP sessions were filled with Burrell shouting out hypothetical situations and encouraging hitters to try and hit an RBI single to center, or pull a three-run double down the line. Before camp started, the staff had Zoom calls to discuss situational hitting, and it will be an emphasis in the minors, too. Melvin talks often of the need for runs with two outs.
“That’s kind of the backbreaker,” he said. “A pitcher is on the mound, he’s got a couple of guys on, two outs, you can get out of the inning, and now all of a sudden (there’s) a run. Those are things that have an effect on guys mentally as the game goes along.”
The Giants ranked 24th in the majors last year in two-out RBI and 29th in OPS with two outs. They hit .234 with runners in scoring position. Far too often, they took big cuts and struck out when a well-placed ball would have tied a game.
All spring, they kept the line moving, and it wasn’t just Adames and the veterans. Melvin was especially encouraged by the development he saw in the team’s younger hitters, and he’s hopeful that it carries over. A bit of small ball would go a long way.
Who Is This Year’s Ramos?
Heliot Ramos was optioned to the minors early last March. By May, he was carrying the lineup.
There’s no guarantee that anyone will replicate that leap, and there’s certainly no chance that anyone turns into Barry Bonds for a couple of weeks as Tyler Fitzgerald briefly did, but the last week of camp was a reminder that the Giants need a couple of young hitters to take the next step. All spring, team officials and rival scouts quietly said the same thing: The bullpen looks good, the rotation is deep, the defense is much improved, the clubhouse vibes are strong … but man, that lineup is a couple of injuries away from becoming a serious issue.
Jung Hoo Lee’s back flared up late in camp, and Jerar Encarnacion suffered a fractured hand that will cost him at least a month. The door is wide open for a Luis Matos breakout, and he followed a good winter with a strong spring. Grant McCray will get an extended look if Lee ever misses time, and he has made strides with his approach. There’s infield depth with Casey Schmitt, Brett Wisely and Christian Koss, and top prospect Bryce Eldridge is on the way and should debut in the second half.
The Giants don’t need someone to follow Ramos and make the All-Star team, but they do need one or two young hitters to step up after a quiet offseason.
A Little Help, Please
The Diamondbacks won 89 games last year and didn’t get a Wild Card spot, but a year earlier they snuck in with 84 wins and reached the World Series. The Miami Marlins also got in with 84 wins in 2023, but outside of those two, the minimum to crack the National League field under this new format has been 87 wins. The path gets a lot easier if the sixth seed only needs a win total in the mid-eighties, but that seems unlikely given the depth of the NL this season.
PECOTA has three NL East teams (Atlanta, Philadelphia, New York) and three NL West teams (Los Angeles, Arizona, San Diego) at 86-plus wins. FanGraphs isn’t high on the Padres, but otherwise sees five teams in the East and West being well ahead of the Giants.
The Giants have finished above .500 just once since 2016 (hilariously, they won 107 games in that outlier season) and will need to go well above to stick in the Wild Card race. They’ll need some help, too, either from the Padres or Diamondbacks, or one of the three contenders out East — and ideally, they would see multiple preseason favorites fail to live up to expectations.
An optimist could make the case for 86 or 87 wins if a lot of things click. It’s a lot more difficult to see how the Giants can make the leap to the 90-win range, but that might be required.
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